Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

FX_Net_Specs

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Highlighting the COT currency data is the bounce-back for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculative positions jumped by over +18,000 contracts this week and rose for a third consecutive week. This week marked the second time in the past three weeks that speculator positions increased by more than +18,000 contracts (+22,907 contracts on May 10th) and now Euro bets have gained by a total of +45,308 contracts over the past three weeks. The speculator’s bullish position marks the highest standing of the past six weeks at +38,930 contracts.

Euro speculator positions had recently fallen into a bearish speculative level on May 3rd (-6,378 contracts) after dropping by a total of -45,438 contracts from April 19th to May 3rd. This was the first bearish position for the Euro since early January. The speculator sentiment has been weaker so far in 2022 compared to preceding years as Euro bets are averaging just +29,199 weekly contracts in 2022. This compares to the Euro bets average of +60,837 weekly contracts over 2021 and an average of +92,464 weekly contracts over 2020.

The recent improvement in Euro positions comes amid increasing expectations for the European Central Bank to start raising interest rates higher and end their negative interest rate regime in the third quarter. The Euro exchange rate recently hit its lowest level versus the US Dollar since January of 2017 with a drop to approximately 1.350 (EUR/USD) on May 13th. Since then, the Euro has rallied over the past couple of weeks and closed Friday at the 1.0733 exchange rate.

Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (18,591 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,826 contracts), Japanese yen (2,865 contracts), Brazil real (619 contracts), Canadian dollar (1,809 contracts), Mexican peso (1,577 contracts) and Bitcoin (43 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the Australian dollar (-804 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,081 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,131 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-1,554 contracts).


Speculator strength standings for each market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme

  • OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range
  • Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range
  • Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 61,857 93 38,039 91 -40,877 7 2,838 48
EUR 708,938 86 38,930 47 -72,600 55 33,670 30
GBP 253,864 73 -80,372 16 97,042 87 -16,670 21
JPY 237,256 80 -99,444 8 106,699 88 -7,255 39
CHF 49,918 38 -19,673 31 31,694 76 -12,021 17
CAD 138,508 22 -12,687 30 6,933 71 5,754 41
AUD 158,615 51 -45,446 43 53,269 59 -7,823 33
NZD 59,279 61 -19,321 39 22,703 65 -3,382 13
MXN 177,125 39 29,792 40 -34,352 58 4,560 62
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
BRL 63,976 59 38,714 88 -40,501 12 1,787 86
Bitcoin 11,729 64 849 100 -817 0 -32 12

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.8 3.5 8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 69.6 3.6
– Net Position: 38,039 -40,877 2,838
– Gross Longs: 53,675 2,157 5,076
– Gross Shorts: 15,636 43,034 2,238
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.4 6.7 47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.5 -8.0 -39.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.4 51.7 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.9 61.9 7.6
– Net Position: 38,930 -72,600 33,670
– Gross Longs: 237,072 366,345 87,892
– Gross Shorts: 198,142 438,945 54,222
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 55.4 30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.0 -3.4 19.8

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.2 80.3 7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.9 42.1 14.1
– Net Position: -80,372 97,042 -16,670
– Gross Longs: 25,936 203,802 19,107
– Gross Shorts: 106,308 106,760 35,777
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.1 87.1 21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.7 15.4 2.5

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 81.0 10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 36.0 13.5
– Net Position: -99,444 106,699 -7,255
– Gross Longs: 16,567 192,215 24,858
– Gross Shorts: 116,011 85,516 32,113
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.6 87.7 38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.6 -12.3 26.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.7 80.0 16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.1 16.5 40.7
– Net Position: -19,673 31,694 -12,021
– Gross Longs: 1,355 39,913 8,308
– Gross Shorts: 21,028 8,219 20,329
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.8 76.2 16.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 12.1 -12.4

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.9 54.1 23.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 49.1 19.0
– Net Position: -12,687 6,933 5,754
– Gross Longs: 28,999 74,953 32,048
– Gross Shorts: 41,686 68,020 26,294
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.4 71.1 41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 32.1 -30.9

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.1 62.7 11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.7 29.1 16.7
– Net Position: -45,446 53,269 -7,823
– Gross Longs: 36,579 99,401 18,615
– Gross Shorts: 82,025 46,132 26,438
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.7 58.6 33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.5 26.4 -45.5

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.1 76.7 3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.7 38.4 9.4
– Net Position: -19,321 22,703 -3,382
– Gross Longs: 10,749 45,458 2,202
– Gross Shorts: 30,070 22,755 5,584
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.8 65.4 13.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 35.7 -46.9

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.9 47.7 4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 67.1 1.7
– Net Position: 29,792 -34,352 4,560
– Gross Longs: 83,031 84,474 7,605
– Gross Shorts: 53,239 118,826 3,045
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 58.5 62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -6.2 -0.1

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 70.5 22.1 6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.9 85.4 3.2
– Net Position: 38,714 -40,501 1,787
– Gross Longs: 45,076 14,132 3,826
– Gross Shorts: 6,362 54,633 2,039
– Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.4 11.8 85.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 8.2 -12.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 43 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 82.9 1.2 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.7 8.2 9.4
– Net Position: 849 -817 -32
– Gross Longs: 9,723 141 1,072
– Gross Shorts: 8,874 958 1,104
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 3.6 12.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.0 -23.6 -6.9

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

InvestMacro is an independent investing media website. Started in 2007 as a simple trading blog (as CountingPips.com) focused on global major currencies, InvestMacro has since steadily expanded and evolved. Our mission is to provide independent coverage of the relevant financial markets for global macro investors. All information and opinions are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.