Western European trailer registrations dropped some 25% in 2020 and recovered only moderately in 2021 to 90% of their pre-pandemic level. Although trailers are less electrified and digitalised than trucks, chips are still used in axis, lightning, cooling systems, and telematics, to name a few. Aside from this, manufacturers also faced shortages of components like EBSmodulators (brakes) and landing legs. This ended up in lead times running up to a year and thousands of semi-finished trailers parked at green fields outside the production sites of Krone and Schmitz. The release of Russian (and Ukrainian) production slots led to some acceleration in deliveries to other clients, but not much.
Trailer registrations still far from pre-pandemic levels in most countries
Development of new semi-trailer registrations (2019 = 100)
Source: RAI/RDC, Febiac, VDA, SDES-RSVERO, ING Research
Germany and France lead the recovery in trailer registrations in 2022
The Netherlands was the only western European market where trailer registrations fully recovered in 2021, pushed by large deliveries. In Belgium, however, registrations still ended up a third below their previous level. In the first half of 2022, the largest western European markets showed significant recovery and France is also expected to see a rebound.
Stronger but no complete recovery for trailer registrations in 2022
Western European* registrations of semi-trailers y.o.y
Source: RAI/RDC, Febiac, VDA, SDES-RSVERO, ING Research
*Includes The Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany
Trailer registrations expected to show a continued recovery into 2023
Despite high utilisation rates and the continued investing of large fleet owners (like TIP for DHL ), general order intake for new trailers is expected to slow down in the second half of 2022. Weaker transport volume perspectives and higher asset prices are the main causes. However, with existing order books taking us into 2023 we expect that new registrations in northwest Europe will show a recovery of more than 10% in 2022. This is based on the assumption that supply chain and production conditions will improve and at least part of the parked trailers can be finished and delivered. Depending on the uncertain economic reality going further into 2023, registrations could show a slight increase. Even in a scenario of a recession, the current market without large numbers of trailers build to stock is very different from the situation in 2009 when registrations faced a severe downturn.
Schmitz, Krone and Kögel managed to increase deliveries and market share again in Europe's largest market
Market shares in new semi-trailer registrations in Germany
Source: RAI, ING Research
Market leaders Schmitz and Krone benefit from larger trailer output
Two-thirds of Europe’s largest semi-trailer market in Germany is covered by Schmitz, Krone and Kögel. Schmitz leads the market with a share of almost a third, followed by Krone (just over a quarter). Both gained market share in 2021, probably because they strongly rely on the production volume of more standardised trailers like curtain siders, box trailers and coolers. Manufacturers were able to gradually ramp up production figures and a.o. rental companies receiving a series of ordered standardised new trailers.
Schmitz and Krone also dominate the European markets. In some other countries like the Netherlands and Belgium, the positions of the two rivals are reversed. After a process of consolidation over the previous decade, the market shares of the dominant players seem to have reached their limits for now. This leaves a large part of the trailer market still fragmented with hundreds of smaller players offering a range of specialties like dry and liquid bulk trailers, low loaders (heavy-duty transport), and tailor-made products.
Structural shift in new trailer registrations to box trailers
Share of main semi trailer configurations in total registrations in Europe's largest market
Germany
Source: RAI, ING Research
Shift from curtain siders to box trailers holds despite more expensive configuration
When looking at different types of trailers, there has been a recent shift in trailer registrations from curtain siders to box trailers for security reasons. The rise of e-commerce has also had an impact here. In 2021, the share of box trailers slid somewhat again whereas the curtain siders were revived. This is probably related to the delivery of large rental orders operating large numbers of these vehicles. In 2022, some pressure could remain on steel heavy box trailers because of high commodity prices. Fleet owners may have decided to refurbish trailers and postpone the replacement of these trailers. Nevertheless, we expect the share of box trailers to stay at higher levels than previously.
Read full article on ING Economics: Flexibility, resilience and regulation support the European trailer market | Article | ING Think
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