Cryptocurrency survived key levels after Saturday's shake-up

Cryptocurrency survived key levels after Saturday's shake-up

The cryptocurrency market experienced a shock shakeout on Saturday morning. Low trading activity and the relatively narrow previous trading range created a situation where stop orders were placed close to the market price.

Outside forces, such as the stock market pressure on Friday, triggered a snowball. On Saturday morning, the fall below the previous day's low at $52K triggered a sharp liquidation of positions, with the price falling to $42K at one point.

Other altcoins also fell 10-25% as investors could not stay away from such a drop. By the end of the day, buyers brought BTCUSD back to $48K, but they still lacked the strength to push it above $50K.

Cryptocurrency survived key levels after Saturday's shake-up - 1

Over the weekend, news came in that MicroStrategy and El Salvador were again using this drawdown to build up their bitcoin holdings. We wonder if these big buyers are ready for a change of trend from bullish to bearish, which happens quite regularly. Will corporate and government finances be able to withstand the new crypto winter? If not, it will only increase the blow to the market when it runs the risk of being flooded with forced sell orders, a kind of margin call and subsequent depression.

From the tech analysis perspective, Bitcoin is experiencing a crucial moment. The bulls managed to get the quotes back neatly above the 200-day moving average, and the RSI index touched level 20, an oversold territory. A stabilisation and even a slight pullback would form a positive picture of how the bulls defended the global upside trend. If the rate is below $48K by the end of Monday, it will signal that the bears didn't finish their play, and we should expect a further decline, potentially to the $40K area.

ETHUSD, which at one point on Saturday was losing more than 17% to $3500, also managed to defend its significant $4000 level. But still, on Sunday and Monday morning, there is evident caution.

Cryptocurrency survived key levels after Saturday's shake-up - 2

A mutual ability for Ether to stay above $4000 and for Bitcoin to stay above its 200-day average (now $48K) would be a serious sign of staying within the bullish trend. A failure of these levels promises to escalate very quickly into a new liquidation of long positions. It will move the timing and levels of the local bottom in cryptocurrencies further down.

Overall, the market remains under pressure, and its total capitalisation has lost 2.8% to 2.26 trillion in the last 24 hours, down 14% from Friday morning's levels.

The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 16, its lowest level since July. These levels can safely be called attractive buying on a downturn, but cautious traders should still wait first for solid indications that the Greed and Fear Index has formed a bottom and is headed for growth.

Alex Kuptsikevich

Alex Kuptsikevich

Financial market professional with 16-years' experience and Senior financial analyst at FxPro. Author of daily reviews on the impact of economic events with comments regularly featured in top international and Russian media. Covers fundamental analysis, global markets, foreign exchange market, gold, oil, cryptocurrencies.

Alex Kuptsikevich is a regular contributor to both digital and print media including CNBC, Forbes, Reuters, MarketWatch, BBC and Coindesk.