COT Week 26 Charts: Energy Speculator bets mostly higher led by WTI Crude Oil & Natural Gas

COT Week 26 Charts: Energy Speculator bets mostly higher led by WTI Crude Oil & Natural Gas

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (10,190 contracts) and Natural Gas (1,450 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (703 contracts) and Gasoline (692 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil (-4,667 contracts) with Heating Oil (-2,056 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (79 percent) and Heating Oil (54 percent) are above the midpoint for the past 3 years while all the other markets are below the 50 percent level. Gasoline and WTI Crude are in extreme bearish positions as each come in at 3 percent currently.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil (16 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (9 percent) are also the only markets that have rising trend scores currently. Brent Crude Oil (-13 percent) and WTI Crude (-9 percent) are leading the downside trends.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-28-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,651,566 0 299,692 3 -327,938 99 28,246 55
Gold 497,005 13 157,693 2 -182,007 98 24,314 16
Silver 135,775 3 10,891 0 -18,485 100 7,594 0
Copper 182,352 14 -30,696 20 31,197 81 -501 22
Palladium 7,765 6 -3,825 1 4,441 100 -616 8
Platinum 68,232 36 -1,306 2 -3,381 100 4,687 27
Natural Gas 987,740 0 -129,419 40 90,840 60 38,579 71
Brent 173,920 19 -42,677 40 41,434 62 1,243 26
Heating Oil 269,168 23 7,508 53 -25,743 44 18,235 62
Soybeans 653,337 11 137,193 56 -106,705 52 -30,488 20
Corn 1,338,054 0 328,102 72 -274,110 33 -53,992 12
Coffee 194,896 2 45,200 78 -47,147 26 1,947 9
Sugar 734,324 0 122,709 62 -132,877 43 10,168 20
Wheat 291,041 0 7,679 29 -1,871 57 -5,808 80

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 299,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 289,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.0 36.3 4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.8 56.2 3.2
– Net Position: 299,692 -327,938 28,246
– Gross Longs: 396,046 599,957 80,880
– Gross Shorts: 96,354 927,895 52,634
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.4 98.6 54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.7 12.6 -14.1

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 53.8 3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.3 30.0 2.9
– Net Position: -42,677 41,434 1,243
– Gross Longs: 25,712 93,538 6,241
– Gross Shorts: 68,389 52,104 4,998
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.6 62.2 26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.1 15.5 -20.3

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -129,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.6 40.8 6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.7 31.6 2.4
– Net Position: -129,419 90,840 38,579
– Gross Longs: 203,204 402,705 62,574
– Gross Shorts: 332,623 311,865 23,995
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.7 59.5 71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.3 8.4 -28.5

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.6 53.7 8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 68.4 4.4
– Net Position: 32,099 -42,454 10,355
– Gross Longs: 76,657 154,967 23,177
– Gross Shorts: 44,558 197,421 12,822
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.8 94.6 81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.7 4.3 -17.4

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,564 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.5 52.6 14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.7 62.1 8.2
– Net Position: 7,508 -25,743 18,235
– Gross Longs: 44,423 141,515 40,222
– Gross Shorts: 36,915 167,258 21,987
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.5 43.9 61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.0 -9.9 -5.4

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,052 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.6 68.6 0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.8 57.9 0.2
– Net Position: -7,349 7,041 308
– Gross Longs: 18,077 45,029 456
– Gross Shorts: 25,426 37,988 148
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.4 20.4 21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.8 -7.5 -13.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

InvestMacro is an independent investing media website. Started in 2007 as a simple trading blog (as CountingPips.com) focused on global major currencies, InvestMacro has since steadily expanded and evolved. Our mission is to provide independent coverage of the relevant financial markets for global macro investors. All information and opinions are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.