COT Week 25 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets mostly lower led by S&P500 Mini & Russell 2000

COT Week 25 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets mostly lower led by S&P500 Mini & Russell 2000

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as three out of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was VIX (24,255 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (2,404 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (821 contracts) also showing a positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500 Mini (-148,597 contracts) and with Russell 2000 Mini (-10,350 contracts), Nikkei 225 Yen (-5,996 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (-4,840 contracts) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-3,184 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


 

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq Mini and the VIX are both in extreme bullish levels (above 80 percent). The Nikkei Stock Average is also above the midpoint of the past 3-year with a 69.9 percent score for a bullish reading.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the S&P 500 Mini and the Russell 200 Mini are leading the downside trends with -43.7 percent and -21.9 percent, respectively. The Nasdaq Mini and the Nikkei 225 Yen are the only markets with positive six week trends.

 


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini 2,262,004 6 -114,319 35 144,197 92 -29,878 20
Nikkei 225 12,380 5 -1,592 70 2,139 40 -547 21
Nasdaq-Mini 236,624 34 30,806 92 -27,586 10 -3,220 42
DowJones-Mini 69,024 26 -25,473 4 28,937 98 -3,464 20
VIX 257,930 15 -49,923 84 55,730 16 -5,807 63
Nikkei 225 Yen 51,198 30 -3,047 25 25,170 88 -22,123 29

 


VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -49,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 24,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.2 53.8 8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 32.2 10.7
– Net Position: -49,923 55,730 -5,807
– Gross Longs: 46,982 138,746 21,718
– Gross Shorts: 96,905 83,016 27,525
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.2 16.2 63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.0 -1.8 27.4

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -114,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -148,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.1 75.7 9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.2 69.4 11.3
– Net Position: -114,319 144,197 -29,878
– Gross Longs: 273,629 1,713,053 224,849
– Gross Shorts: 387,948 1,568,856 254,727
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.0 91.7 20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.7 46.8 -5.2

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.9 69.8 15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.8 27.9 20.1
– Net Position: -25,473 28,937 -3,464
– Gross Longs: 10,310 48,166 10,418
– Gross Shorts: 35,783 19,229 13,882
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.1 98.0 19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 6.6 -16.3

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.0 46.9 16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 58.5 17.7
– Net Position: 30,806 -27,586 -3,220
– Gross Longs: 82,888 110,913 38,577
– Gross Shorts: 52,082 138,499 41,797
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 9.5 41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.7 -12.0 4.4

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -105,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.1 88.3 3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 69.3 3.7
– Net Position: -105,596 107,890 -2,294
– Gross Longs: 40,382 502,812 19,004
– Gross Shorts: 145,978 394,922 21,298
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.9 18.9 8.0

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,413 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 56.8 17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.1 39.5 22.1
– Net Position: -1,592 2,139 -547
– Gross Longs: 3,130 7,026 2,194
– Gross Shorts: 4,722 4,887 2,741
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.9 40.3 21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.6 14.0 14.3

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.9 92.7 1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 93.2 1.2
– Net Position: 196 -2,076 1,880
– Gross Longs: 18,931 358,172 6,538
– Gross Shorts: 18,735 360,248 4,658
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.1 77.7 35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 7.7 -3.4

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

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