COT Week 25 Charts: Energy Speculator bets on defensive led by WTI Crude Oil & Natural Gas

COT Week 25 Charts: Energy Speculator bets on defensive led by WTI Crude Oil & Natural Gas

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

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Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy markets speculator bets were lower on the week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (1,089 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (259 contracts) also showing a small positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was WTI Crude Oil (-13,444 contracts) with Natural Gas (-7,384 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-1,621 contracts) and Gasoline (-49 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the Heating Oil are both in bullish levels at the moment. All other energy markets are below the midpoint of the past 3-years and have bearish or extreme bearish readings.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the Heating Oil are again leading the six week trends with 19.9 percent and 20.8 percent, respectively. Brent Oil leads the downside trends with -11.4 percent over the past six weeks.

 


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,658,636 0 289,502 0 -323,915 100 34,413 64
Gold 500,276 14 163,287 4 -186,929 96 23,642 14
Silver 145,356 12 18,419 7 -27,250 93 8,831 4
Copper 187,170 17 -20,938 27 18,928 72 2,010 37
Palladium 7,641 6 -4,046 0 4,511 100 -465 17
Platinum 64,946 30 1,491 6 -6,397 96 4,906 30
Natural Gas 1,030,971 0 -130,869 39 85,977 58 44,892 86
Brent 173,098 18 -38,010 47 36,052 53 1,958 36
Heating Oil 268,818 23 9,564 56 -28,204 41 18,640 63
Soybeans 745,494 32 178,379 68 -152,968 38 -25,411 28
Corn 1,512,152 23 380,169 79 -326,474 25 -53,695 12
Coffee 192,832 0 49,371 81 -52,348 22 2,977 20
Sugar 779,773 0 163,111 70 -181,280 34 18,169 30
Wheat 320,326 6 19,067 44 -15,407 38 -3,660 91

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 289,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 302,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 35.9 5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 55.4 3.2
– Net Position: 289,502 -323,915 34,413
– Gross Longs: 388,496 594,860 86,668
– Gross Shorts: 98,994 918,775 52,255
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 63.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 10.7 -13.1

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.2 51.5 4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.1 30.7 2.8
– Net Position: -38,010 36,052 1,958
– Gross Longs: 26,225 89,195 6,865
– Gross Shorts: 64,235 53,143 4,907
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.4 53.2 35.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.4 9.1 17.7

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -130,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -123,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.7 39.8 7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 31.5 2.7
– Net Position: -130,869 85,977 44,892
– Gross Longs: 213,487 410,457 72,315
– Gross Shorts: 344,356 324,480 27,423
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.3 58.0 86.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 7.0 -8.6

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 31,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -49 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 54.3 7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.8 68.3 4.3
– Net Position: 31,407 -42,080 10,673
– Gross Longs: 75,835 162,816 23,491
– Gross Shorts: 44,428 204,896 12,818
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.1 95.0 83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.0 2.0 -13.5

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 9,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.1 51.0 16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.5 61.5 9.8
– Net Position: 9,564 -28,204 18,640
– Gross Longs: 45,955 137,166 44,894
– Gross Shorts: 36,391 165,370 26,254
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.5 41.2 62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.8 -12.7 -7.7

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,052 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.8 69.5 0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.1 57.5 0.2
– Net Position: -8,052 7,764 288
– Gross Longs: 17,434 45,267 447
– Gross Shorts: 25,486 37,503 159
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.7 23.2 29.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.9 -18.8 -11.7

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

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