COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low

COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the decline for the US Dollar Index in the currency futures contracts. Dollar Index speculators cut back on their bullish bets this week for the third time in the past four weeks after previously pushing their bullish bets to a 117-week high on January 4th. Since that high-point, bullish bets have fallen by a total of -4,507 contracts and have now dropped the overall standing to a seven-week low. Despite the recent slide, the US Dollar Index bullish bets are still near the top of their range over the past three years with a speculator strength index score of 85.4 percent which is considered extremely bullish (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The Dollar Index price has had a volatile couple of weeks with a sharp rise to 97.22 on January 28th and then a sharp drop to 95.23 on February 3rd and closed the week at approximately 95.48.

The currencies with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (7,633 contracts), Swiss franc (557 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,947 contracts), Russian ruble (10,207 contracts), Bitcoin (175 contracts), Australian dollar (3,444 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,520 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,290 contracts), Euro (-1,844 contracts), British pound sterling (-15,842 contracts), Brazil real (-737 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-925 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Feb-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 56,477 81 34,571 85 -41,884 5 7,313 97
EUR 685,431 78 29,716 44 -57,467 59 27,751 20
GBP 184,007 28 -23,605 57 28,891 47 -5,286 45
JPY 194,435 51 -60,640 30 79,353 76 -18,713 9
CHF 41,054 16 -8,239 56 16,541 49 -8,302 39
CAD 145,082 27 18,264 65 -25,622 39 7,358 44
AUD 196,913 80 -79,829 11 96,098 91 -16,269 13
NZD 58,467 60 -11,698 52 14,019 52 -2,321 25
MXN 141,352 22 730 28 -3,848 71 3,118 56
RUB 46,358 47 14,151 47 -14,451 52 300 43
BRL 76,175 100 -13,353 51 10,467 47 2,886 100
Bitcoin 9,948 51 141 100 -491 0 350 21

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,861 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.7 3.8 16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 78.0 3.3
– Net Position: 34,571 -41,884 7,313
– Gross Longs: 43,897 2,141 9,203
– Gross Shorts: 9,326 44,025 1,890
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.4 5.0 96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -2.6 22.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 55.0 12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 63.4 8.2
– Net Position: 29,716 -57,467 27,751
– Gross Longs: 213,563 376,805 83,675
– Gross Shorts: 183,847 434,272 55,924
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 59.5 20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.2 -11.8 3.2

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.1 68.8 13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 53.1 16.4
– Net Position: -23,605 28,891 -5,286
– Gross Longs: 29,597 126,536 24,845
– Gross Shorts: 53,202 97,645 30,131
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.0 46.8 44.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -25.0 16.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 82.5 8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.7 41.7 17.8
– Net Position: -60,640 79,353 -18,713
– Gross Longs: 14,510 160,358 15,958
– Gross Shorts: 75,150 81,005 34,671
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.7 75.6 9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.3 4.1 0.3

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,796 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 1.7 73.5 24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 33.2 44.8
– Net Position: -8,239 16,541 -8,302
– Gross Longs: 698 30,161 10,103
– Gross Shorts: 8,937 13,620 18,405
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 49.4 38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 0.7 -4.6

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 39.6 21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 57.3 16.5
– Net Position: 18,264 -25,622 7,358
– Gross Longs: 52,386 57,524 31,356
– Gross Shorts: 34,122 83,146 23,998
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 39.4 44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.3 -22.9 9.8

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 78.8 9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 30.0 17.5
– Net Position: -79,829 96,098 -16,269
– Gross Longs: 18,835 155,124 18,128
– Gross Shorts: 98,664 59,026 34,397
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.8 90.6 12.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.5 -1.4 3.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.0 4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 37.0 8.7
– Net Position: -11,698 14,019 -2,321
– Gross Longs: 19,205 35,644 2,783
– Gross Shorts: 30,903 21,625 5,104
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 52.0 25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 7.9 4.7

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.0 57.2 4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.5 59.9 2.3
– Net Position: 730 -3,848 3,118
– Gross Longs: 53,767 80,885 6,378
– Gross Shorts: 53,037 84,733 3,260
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 71.2 56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -4.3 20.0

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.3 6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.2 32.6 2.2
– Net Position: -13,353 10,467 2,886
– Gross Longs: 36,293 35,263 4,562
– Gross Shorts: 49,646 24,796 1,676
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 47.4 100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 4.3 42.4

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Russian Ruble Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.0 41.5 4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 72.7 3.7
– Net Position: 14,151 -14,451 300
– Gross Longs: 25,048 19,255 2,024
– Gross Shorts: 10,897 33,706 1,724
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 52.4 42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.1 -10.5 -26.0

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.3 3.1 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.8 8.0 8.9
– Net Position: 141 -491 350
– Gross Longs: 7,984 304 1,232
– Gross Shorts: 7,843 795 882
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.4 -43.4 -11.1

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

InvestMacro is an independent investing media website. Started in 2007 as a simple trading blog (as CountingPips.com) focused on global major currencies, InvestMacro has since steadily expanded and evolved. Our mission is to provide independent coverage of the relevant financial markets for global macro investors. All information and opinions are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.