COT Energy Speculators drop WTI Crude Oil bets for 5th week despite Oil Price jump

COT Energy Speculators drop WTI Crude Oil bets for 5th week despite Oil Price jump

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the continued decline in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures has decreased for five consecutive weeks and in thirteen out of the past fifteen weeks. The spec crude position has dropped by a total of -82,271 contracts over the past fifteen weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level of the past seven weeks. These declines in speculator sentiment has brought the current speculator strength score level into a bearish-extreme standing of just 2.4 percent where the strength score measures the current speculator standing compared to past three years where above 80 is bullish-extreme and below 20 is bearish-extreme. Despite the speculator weakness, crude oil prices have shot up on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with WTI crude touching slightly above $100 per barrel late this week.

Joining WTI Crude Oil (-9,052 contracts) with falling speculator bets this week were Brent Crude Oil (-30 contracts) and Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) while Natural Gas (795 contracts), Gasoline (991 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (4,874 contracts) saw higher speculator positions on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,058,132 29 339,041 2 -382,891 90 43,850 77
Gold 611,488 49 243,148 65 -269,722 35 26,574 40
Silver 163,745 29 30,302 53 -43,720 56 13,418 21
Copper 204,123 29 25,575 61 -34,754 36 9,179 78
Palladium 7,903 7 -1,429 13 1,118 83 311 63
Platinum 62,274 26 17,540 27 -22,887 76 5,347 37
Natural Gas 1,107,113 2 -130,629 39 95,974 61 34,655 67
Brent 215,908 52 -26,355 73 24,478 31 1,877 35
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 826,824 51 226,464 86 -196,755 20 -29,709 21
Corn 1,563,758 32 451,742 88 -410,962 13 -40,780 20
Coffee 252,688 24 67,791 98 -72,509 3 4,718 21
Sugar 857,376 8 75,246 52 -95,306 50 20,060 33
Wheat 379,308 23 -3,902 44 10,629 51 -6,727 69

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 339,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 348,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.5 36.1 4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 54.7 2.8
– Net Position: 339,041 -382,891 43,850
– Gross Longs: 442,102 743,113 100,987
– Gross Shorts: 103,061 1,126,004 57,137
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 89.9 76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.4 5.6 10.5

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,325 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.3 46.9 4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 35.6 3.4
– Net Position: -26,355 24,478 1,877
– Gross Longs: 37,283 101,361 9,173
– Gross Shorts: 63,638 76,883 7,296
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.5 30.6 34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.6 19.9 -23.2

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 795 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.9 43.8 5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.6 35.1 2.3
– Net Position: -130,629 95,974 34,655
– Gross Longs: 241,913 484,856 60,026
– Gross Shorts: 372,542 388,882 25,371
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 61.1 66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 0.3 18.3

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 50.1 6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.0 69.3 3.3
– Net Position: 63,587 -74,709 11,122
– Gross Longs: 106,356 194,978 23,947
– Gross Shorts: 42,769 269,687 12,825
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.8 62.3 78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -9.2 30.3

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9
– Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979
– Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210
– Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 65.4 29.1 1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 94.6 1.5 0.2
– Net Position: -12,167 11,468 699
– Gross Longs: 27,191 12,091 770
– Gross Shorts: 39,358 623 71
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 19.4 to 1 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.9 37.4 44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 36.1 -36.8 5.0

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

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