COT Energy Speculators drop their Heating Oil bullish bets to 6-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 8th 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the recent slide in the Heating Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor futures has fallen for three out of the past four weeks and for thirteen out of the past seventeen weeks. These decreases have brought the overall net standing for heating oil to just +6,455 contracts, the lowest level since late December. Heating oil contracts have been in positive bullish territory for sixty-seven straight weeks, dating back to October of 2020. The most recent high was a total of +39,137 contracts on October 12th of 2021 but contracts have been on a downtrend since then. The heating oil price, meanwhile, has been on a sharp uptrend (like most energy prices) so there is a divergence at the current moment between the speculators (typically trend followers) and the price direction.

The markets with rising speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (4,921 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,430 contracts) while WTI Crude Oil (-5,521 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-7,403 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and Gasoline (-2,600 contracts) fell.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Feb-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	2,170,681	46	363,383	18	-412,144	69	48,761	84
Gold	512,842	23	186,706	47	-211,434	53	24,728	34
Silver	147,379	14	19,299	42	-32,571	67	13,272	20
Copper	201,860	28	18,855	56	-25,523	42	6,668	64
Palladium	7,497	5	-1,230	14	1,035	83	195	56
Platinum	58,766	20	11,759	19	-16,638	85	4,879	30
Natural Gas	1,133,934	6	-115,089	44	85,151	58	29,938	55
Brent	208,578	46	-26,323	73	22,725	27	3,598	58
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	832,618	52	209,730	82	-176,080	24	-33,650	14
Corn	1,575,318	34	419,602	84	-382,874	17	-36,728	22
Coffee	273,102	39	66,867	97	-72,255	3	5,388	26
Sugar	931,602	25	79,090	53	-96,963	50	17,873	30
Wheat	385,172	26	-3,578	44	7,972	49	-4,394	81

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 363,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 368,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	35.1	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.4	54.1	2.6
– Net Position:	363,383	-412,144	48,761
– Gross Longs:	480,560	762,286	105,794
– Gross Shorts:	117,177	1,174,430	57,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	68.6	83.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-13.6	19.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	47.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	36.9	2.7
– Net Position:	-26,323	22,725	3,598
– Gross Longs:	38,825	99,625	9,166
– Gross Shorts:	65,148	76,900	5,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	27.5	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	9.0	6.4

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -115,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -120,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	41.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	33.9	2.5
– Net Position:	-115,089	85,151	29,938
– Gross Longs:	240,829	470,065	57,837
– Gross Shorts:	355,918	384,914	27,899
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	57.7	54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-9.6	-1.7

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	49.5	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	68.3	3.7
– Net Position:	62,752	-72,595	9,843
– Gross Longs:	108,363	191,576	24,008
– Gross Shorts:	45,611	264,171	14,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	64.4	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-9.3	22.4

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	50.8	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	60.1	6.9
– Net Position:	6,455	-32,434	25,979
– Gross Longs:	59,340	177,626	50,210
– Gross Shorts:	52,885	210,060	24,231
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	36.7	88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-10.3	23.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.4	27.4	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	95.8	1.4	0.1
– Net Position:	-12,468	11,845	623
– Gross Longs:	31,105	12,468	670
– Gross Shorts:	43,573	623	47
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	20.0 to 1	14.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	38.9	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	8.9	5.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.