COT Currency Speculators raised British Pound Sterling bearish bets for 10th week

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Here are the latest charts and statistics for this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week was the rise in bearish bets for the British pound sterling currency futures contracts. Pound speculators have raised their bearish bets for a tenth consecutive week this week and for the eleventh time out of the past twelve weeks. Over the past ten-week time-frame, pound bets have dropped by a total of -79,261 contracts, going from -337 net positions on March 1st to a total of -79,598 net positions this week. The deterioration in speculator sentiment has now pushed the pound net position to the most bearish standing of the past one hundred and thirty-seven weeks, dating back to September 24th of 2019.

Pound sterling sentiment has been hit by a recent slowing economy as the UK GDP declined by 0.1 percent in March after flat growth in February. Also, weighing on the UK economy is the war in Ukraine that has sharply raised inflation in the country (and elsewhere) and which could see the UK economy with the lowest growth rate among G7 countries in 2023, according to the IMF.

Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (22,907 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,705 contracts), Bitcoin (315 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-9,660 contracts), Australian dollar (-13,198 contracts), Brazil real (-1,010 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,856 contracts), British pound sterling (-5,785 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,386 contracts), Canadian dollar (-14,436 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts).


Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index 57,556 84 34,776 86 -37,174 13 2,398 43
EUR 705,046 84 16,529 40 -43,026 64 26,497 18
GBP 264,594 80 -79,598 17 95,245 86 -15,647 23
JPY 247,278 87 -110,454 1 124,927 97 -14,473 24
CHF 51,282 37 -15,763 40 29,819 69 -14,056 16
CAD 151,009 31 -5,407 38 2,939 67 2,468 35
AUD 153,209 47 -41,714 46 47,126 54 -5,412 39
NZD 56,235 56 -12,996 49 16,874 56 -3,878 7
MXN 153,858 28 16,725 34 -20,866 64 4,141 61
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
BRL 61,450 55 40,778 90 -42,031 10 1,253 79
Bitcoin 10,841 57 703 100 -789 0 86 15

Open Interest is the amount of contracts that were live in the marketplace at time of data.


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.6 3.2 8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.2 67.8 4.5
– Net Position: 34,776 -37,174 2,398
– Gross Longs: 49,864 1,837 4,970
– Gross Shorts: 15,088 39,011 2,572
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 12.8 42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.6 -3.4 -19.3

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 53.3 12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.0 59.4 8.3
– Net Position: 16,529 -43,026 26,497
– Gross Longs: 228,230 376,043 84,921
– Gross Shorts: 211,701 419,069 58,424
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 63.8 18.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 1.2 0.9

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -79,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.1 79.6 7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.2 43.6 13.5
– Net Position: -79,598 95,245 -15,647
– Gross Longs: 29,469 210,627 20,157
– Gross Shorts: 109,067 115,382 35,804
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.6 86.0 23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.5 25.6 -7.7

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 86.2 8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.2 35.7 13.9
– Net Position: -110,454 124,927 -14,473
– Gross Longs: 11,196 213,084 19,811
– Gross Shorts: 121,650 88,157 34,284
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.8 96.6 24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.1 0.0 16.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.2 74.6 16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 16.5 43.5
– Net Position: -15,763 29,819 -14,056
– Gross Longs: 4,727 38,258 8,271
– Gross Shorts: 20,490 8,439 22,327
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.5 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 69.2 15.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 8.0 -7.6

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.6 49.8 21.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 47.9 20.1
– Net Position: -5,407 2,939 2,468
– Gross Longs: 38,679 75,215 32,880
– Gross Shorts: 44,086 72,276 30,412
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 66.9 34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.0 14.5 -29.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,516 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.1 59.9 13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.3 29.1 16.7
– Net Position: -41,714 47,126 -5,412
– Gross Longs: 36,869 91,731 20,131
– Gross Shorts: 78,583 44,605 25,543
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 54.0 39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.3 4.7 -34.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.0 68.5 3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 38.5 10.8
– Net Position: -12,996 16,874 -3,878
– Gross Longs: 15,203 38,541 2,216
– Gross Shorts: 28,199 21,667 6,094
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.5 56.4 7.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.4 26.0 -54.4

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.5 53.1 4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.7 66.7 1.5
– Net Position: 16,725 -20,866 4,141
– Gross Longs: 63,921 81,735 6,467
– Gross Shorts: 47,196 102,601 2,326
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 64.1 60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.6 -10.1 -3.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 15.4 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 83.8 3.0
– Net Position: 40,778 -42,031 1,253
– Gross Longs: 48,835 9,454 3,070
– Gross Shorts: 8,057 51,485 1,817
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 10.3 79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 3.5 -20.6

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Russian Ruble Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7
– Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393
– Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593
– Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986
– Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.1 2.1 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.6 9.4 8.3
– Net Position: 703 -789 86
– Gross Longs: 8,789 227 989
– Gross Shorts: 8,086 1,016 903
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 14.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.0 -24.9 -13.6

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

FX: Credible UK Budget Will Deliver Substantial Fiscal Tightening

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