COT Currency Speculators raise their Euro Futures bullish bets to 26-week high

COT Currency Speculators raise their Euro Futures bullish bets to 26-week high

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the gains in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. Over this nine-week time-frame, Euro bets have jumped by a total of +59,460 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 21st to +47,581 net positions this week. These gains in the Euro sentiment have now brought the speculator positioning to the highest level in the past twenty-six weeks, dating back to August 17th.

Joining the Euro (8,739 contracts) with positive changes this week were the US Dollar Index (1,621 contracts), Brazil real (3,514 contracts), Mexican peso (7,730 contracts),  British pound sterling (10,782 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,033 contracts), Russian ruble (721 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (104 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-7,014 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,716 contracts), Australian dollar (-953 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-316 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 54,283 77 35,386 87 -41,548 6 6,162 84
EUR 702,047 84 47,581 50 -85,057 52 37,476 36
GBP 195,302 36 2,237 76 2,874 31 -5,111 45
JPY 199,425 55 -66,162 26 86,256 79 -20,094 6
CHF 45,522 22 -9,715 53 18,888 52 -9,173 36
CAD 144,815 27 12,170 59 -15,116 47 2,946 36
AUD 192,578 77 -86,694 4 97,684 92 -10,990 26
NZD 64,105 71 -9,333 56 12,020 49 -2,687 21
MXN 151,098 26 8,974 31 -12,054 68 3,080 56
RUB 38,960 35 16,164 52 -17,239 46 1,075 64
BRL 67,288 85 23,760 100 -26,225 0 2,465 95
Bitcoin 10,646 56 -215 92 -213 0 428 23

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 5.0 14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.8 81.5 3.2
– Net Position: 35,386 -41,548 6,162
– Gross Longs: 42,349 2,717 7,897
– Gross Shorts: 6,963 44,265 1,735
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.8 5.6 83.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.4 5.3 5.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,842 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.7 12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.3 66.8 7.4
– Net Position: 47,581 -85,057 37,476
– Gross Longs: 217,899 383,827 89,120
– Gross Shorts: 170,318 468,884 51,644
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 51.7 36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.1 -16.6 15.7

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 58.8 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.5 57.4 15.0
– Net Position: 2,237 2,874 -5,111
– Gross Longs: 50,151 114,901 24,257
– Gross Shorts: 47,914 112,027 29,368
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.6 31.4 45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.8 -27.6 10.8

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 83.6 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 40.3 19.6
– Net Position: -66,162 86,256 -20,094
– Gross Longs: 10,425 166,645 18,973
– Gross Shorts: 76,587 80,389 39,067
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.2 79.0 6.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 0.7 5.2

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 72.6 19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.4 31.2 39.2
– Net Position: -9,715 18,888 -9,173
– Gross Longs: 3,652 33,069 8,654
– Gross Shorts: 13,367 14,181 17,827
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 52.1 36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.3 4.8 -11.9

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,886 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 40.4 19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 50.9 17.5
– Net Position: 12,170 -15,116 2,946
– Gross Longs: 54,424 58,524 28,287
– Gross Shorts: 42,254 73,640 25,341
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.5 46.6 35.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.5 -16.4 0.9

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -86,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.1 81.0 10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.1 30.2 15.9
– Net Position: -86,694 97,684 -10,990
– Gross Longs: 11,692 155,928 19,706
– Gross Shorts: 98,386 58,244 30,696
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 91.8 25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.5 -2.3 1.1

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,366 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.9 55.3 4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.4 36.5 8.6
– Net Position: -9,333 12,020 -2,687
– Gross Longs: 24,923 35,432 2,838
– Gross Shorts: 34,256 23,412 5,525
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 48.9 21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.8 2.6 -13.7

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.4 56.0 4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 64.0 2.1
– Net Position: 8,974 -12,054 3,080
– Gross Longs: 59,485 84,673 6,250
– Gross Shorts: 50,511 96,727 3,170
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 67.8 56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -8.0 3.0

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.1 16.5 6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.8 55.5 2.4
– Net Position: 23,760 -26,225 2,465
– Gross Longs: 51,868 11,101 4,095
– Gross Shorts: 28,108 37,326 1,630
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 95.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 33.1 -36.1 31.8

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Russian Ruble Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.8 42.2 6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 86.4 4.2
– Net Position: 16,164 -17,239 1,075
– Gross Longs: 19,808 16,440 2,700
– Gross Shorts: 3,644 33,679 1,625
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 46.0 63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -19.2 -12.7

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 3.5 12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 80.0 5.5 8.8
– Net Position: -215 -213 428
– Gross Longs: 8,307 369 1,364
– Gross Shorts: 8,522 582 936
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 22.8 22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.5 -9.8 -6.1

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

InvestMacro is an independent investing media website. Started in 2007 as a simple trading blog (as CountingPips.com) focused on global major currencies, InvestMacro has since steadily expanded and evolved. Our mission is to provide independent coverage of the relevant financial markets for global macro investors. All information and opinions are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.