China

The housing price index (new home prices) for June will be released this Saturday, and it will be closely watched to monitor the financial health of Chinese property developers that are still suffering from a bout of debt overhang due to overleveraging in the past 5 years. In the prior month of May, average new home prices have managed to inch up 0.1% year-on-year after consecutive months of contractions since April 2022.

On Monday, we will have the release of Q2 GDP, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment data. Retail sales and the youth unemployment figures will be pivotal for gauging the current state of internal demand which has been lackluster since March. Growth in retail sales for June is expected to plummet to 3.2% year-on-year from 12.7% recorded in May. On the labor market front, the youth unemployment rate surged to a record high of 20.8% in May, that’s about four times above the nationwide unemployment rate.

On Monday, China’s central bank, the PBoC will decide on its one-year Medium-Term Lending Facility Rate (currently at 2.65%) followed by Thursday’s decision on the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (currently at 3.55% and 4.20%, respectively). 

Given the latest policy pledge by PBoC to stabilize growth via utilizing its arsenal of monetary policy tools, there is a possibility that another round of interest rate cuts may be implemented in the coming week.

India

No major key data releases.

Australia

The RBA minutes of the last monetary policy meeting held on 4th July will be released on Tuesday. Market participants will be scrutinizing the details of the minutes for hints on whether the current official cash rate of 4.1% is the terminal rate for the current tightening cycle after the RBA chose to stand pat on 4th July.  Based on the RBA Rate Indicator as of 14th July, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures for the August 2023 contract has priced in a 29% probability of a 25-bps hike to bring the cash rate to 4.35% at the next monetary policy decision on 1st August; that’s a decrease in odds from 52% seen in a week ago.

Labor market conditions for June will be out on Tuesday; employment change is expected to be lower at 17,000 versus 75,900 in May while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.6%.

New Zealand

Q2 inflation data is due out on Wednesday. Expectations are for a cooler print of 5.9% year-on-year from 6.7% printed in Q1. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, it is expected to slide to 0.9% from 1.2% in Q1. If this cooler consensus turns out as expected, it will be the second (y/y) and third (q/q) consecutive quarters of an inflationary growth slowdown.

Japan

Balance of trade data for June is due out on Thursday; growth in exports is expected to improve to 2.2% year-on-year from 0.6% in May while imports are expected to deteriorate further to -11.3% year-on-year from -9.9% in June.  

Inflation data will then be released on Friday. The core inflation rate for June is expected to tick slightly higher to 3.3% year-on-year from 3.2% in May while June’s core-core inflation rate (excluding fresh food & energy) is expected to remain at an elevated sticky level of 4.3% year-on-year in May. If these inflationary prints come in as expected, it is likely to put more pressure on the Bank of Japan to bring forward monetary policy normalization, a tilt away from the current ultra-dovish stance.

Singapore

The key data to note will be the balance of trade for June to be released on Monday; non-oil exports growth declined to -14.7% year-on-year in May, its 8th consecutive month of contraction. Another weak reading is expected for June due to a weak external environment, especially from China, one of its major trading partners.