Brent Crude Speculators added bearish bets after multi-year lows

Brent Crude Speculators added bearish bets after multi-year lows

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the Brent Oil (Last Day) futures bets. The speculative net position in the Brent Crude Oil futures last week saw speculator sharply raise their weekly bets and brought the overall net position (-6,707 contracts) to the least bearish level of the previous four hundred and twenty-two weeks, dating all the way back to February 4th of 2014 when spec positions totaled -4,253 contracts. Due to the particular dynamics of this market, there has not been a bullish net speculator position in this market since 2013.

This week saw speculators add to their net bearish standing but not by much (-5,005 contracts) and we could see a possible positive speculator reading in this market soon due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the toll it has taken on the oil markets.

Joining Brent Crude Oil (-5,005 contracts) in falling this week were WTI Crude Oil (-6,998 contracts), Natural Gas (-12,004 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-15,543 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1,693 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,896,974 5 361,665 11 -408,809 80 47,144 81
Gold 638,502 57 274,388 75 -306,946 24 32,558 57
Silver 168,283 33 52,297 74 -69,609 31 17,312 44
Copper 198,844 26 31,819 65 -40,070 32 8,251 73
Palladium 7,631 5 -272 20 -563 73 835 94
Platinum 72,496 43 25,833 39 -32,358 63 6,525 53
Natural Gas 1,085,853 0 -138,413 37 97,671 62 40,742 82
Brent 196,832 37 -11,712 92 10,814 11 898 21
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 743,566 32 216,577 84 -189,219 21 -27,358 25
Corn 1,487,815 19 498,033 94 -456,684 7 -41,349 19
Coffee 224,222 3 52,113 86 -56,074 16 3,961 16
Sugar 837,413 5 151,076 68 -190,856 32 39,780 57
Wheat 342,996 4 12,625 58 -5,496 35 -7,129 72

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 361,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 368,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.0 36.7 5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.9 58.3 2.8
– Net Position: 361,665 -408,809 47,144
– Gross Longs: 455,339 696,449 99,767
– Gross Shorts: 93,674 1,105,258 52,623
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.2 79.9 81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.6 4.7 -0.1

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,707 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.6 37.8 4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 32.3 4.3
– Net Position: -11,712 10,814 898
– Gross Longs: 50,323 74,477 9,367
– Gross Shorts: 62,035 63,663 8,469
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.6 11.3 21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.9 -21.7 -15.9

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -138,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -126,409 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 43.6 5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.3 34.6 1.9
– Net Position: -138,413 97,671 40,742
– Gross Longs: 245,092 473,729 60,990
– Gross Shorts: 383,505 376,058 20,248
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.0 61.7 82.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.2 0.0 34.8

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.6 51.0 6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.6 67.9 4.8
– Net Position: 46,900 -52,610 5,710
– Gross Longs: 82,887 158,839 20,554
– Gross Shorts: 35,987 211,449 14,844
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 17.8 84.4 45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.9 14.6 -11.2

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9
– Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979
– Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210
– Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 62.5 32.8 1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 95.4 1.5 0.2
– Net Position: -14,569 13,825 744
– Gross Longs: 27,594 14,481 828
– Gross Shorts: 42,163 656 84
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 22.1 to 1 9.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.8 46.5 45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 1.1 6.4

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

InvestMacro is an independent investing media website. Started in 2007 as a simple trading blog (as CountingPips.com) focused on global major currencies, InvestMacro has since steadily expanded and evolved. Our mission is to provide independent coverage of the relevant financial markets for global macro investors. All information and opinions are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.