XAUUSD

Exchange Rates 04.10.2022 analysis

Red lines- bearish medium-term channel

blue lines- Fibonacci retracements

Gold price is trading just above $1,700 today. Yesterday price broke above the short-term resistance at $1,670 and above the short-term downward sloping channel. We warned bears that if price were to break out of the bearish channel, we should then expect price to reach $1,700. Price has now retraced 50% of the decline from $1,807. Price remains inside the medium-term bearish channel. Price is now challenging the upper channel boundary resistance. The RSI has reached overbought levels. There is increased certainty that we will at least see a short-term pull back. So opening long around $1,710-$1,700 we believe is risky. We should not ignore the medium-term bearish channel. A rejection would be a bearish signal.Channel resistance is at $1,715 and if broken Gold price will at least test $1,732 where we find the 61.8% retracement level.

 

 

Relevance up to 14:00 2022-10-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer

USD falls for the third consecutive day

USD falls for the third consecutive day

John Benjamin John Benjamin 23.02.2021 07:15
EURUSD On Track For A Three-Day GainThe euro currency is on track for a three-day back to back gain. Price action is recovering sharply following the declines during the middle of last week.For the moment, price action will be challenging last week’s highs of 1.2168. A convincing breakout above the resistance area of 1.2177 will put the bullish bias back on the table.Currently, the 4-hour chart is also shaping up to show an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Therefore, a successful breakout above 1.2177 will push the euro currency toward 1.231 level at the very least.This will mark a lower high comparing to the highs from January this year.GBPUSD Maintains Its Impressive RallyThe British pound sterling maintains a strong hold on the bullish momentum with six consecutive weekly gains so far.Price action is nearing the April 2008 highs of 1.4376. The strong uptrend could be further cemented if the cable breaks out sharply from the rising price channel.The immediate support to the downside is near the 1.3951 level at the moment. However, with the current pace of gains, we expect prices to continue rising above the 1.4000 level.On the daily chart as well, price action remains biased to the upside following the strong bullish reversal pattern on Thursday last week.Crude Oil Attempts To Pare LossesWTI crude oil prices are looking bullish with price action posting a strong recovery after the declines from Thursday and Friday last week.For the moment, price is yet to breakout above last Thursday’s highs of 62.22. But this is essential for the commodity to maintain its bullish position.Following the reversal in the direction on Monday, we expect the minor support near 58.85 to hold prices from declining further.To the upside, oil prices will be battling the confluence of the horizontal resistance level and the trendline around the 60.87 region.If price fails to close out above this level, we could see a correction down to the 57.35 level eventually.Gold Prices Rise To A Four-Day HighThe precious metal is posting strong gains on Monday, capitalizing on a weaker greenback. As a result, price action is up over 1.5% intraday and is trading near a four-day high.Despite the current gains, XAUUSD will need to breakout above the 1817.79 level of resistance. A breakout above this level will also push price action out from the falling price channel.This could potentially signal the end of the correction in gold prices as the upside resumes.However, ahead of further gains, a high low within the 1817.79 – 1764.22 levels could give it more upside bias. This will potentially confirm the end of the current declines.Above 1817.79, gold prices will challenge the 1850 levels next.
How to Join the Mining Party… Before it Ends

How to Join the Mining Party… Before it Ends

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.03.2021 18:39
Forget gold and silver for a moment. Do you hear the music? Yes, it’s coming from the mining ETFs club. But how long will the party last?And more importantly, why miners, you may ask? Because miners tend to outperform in the early days of a major rally.After closing only $0.10 below my initial downside target of $31 on Mar. 1 , the GDX ETF could be ripe for an upward revision. Able to ignore much of last week’s chaos, the GDX ETF’s outperformance of gold and silver signals that the tide has likely turned.Please see below:Figure 1To that point, I warned on Mar. 1 that help was on the way:The GDX ETF has garnered historical support at roughly $29.52. The level also coincides with the early-March high, the mid-April low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, a corrective upswing to ~$33/$34 could be the miners’ next move.Furthermore, after alerting subscribers on Mar. 4 – writing that when gold moves to $1,692, we’ll automatically open long positions in the miners – the GDX ETF ended Friday’s (Mar. 5) session up by 3.2% from my initial entry of ~$30.80 - $31. Thus, from here, the GDX ETF has roughly 3.8% to 7.0% upside (as of Friday’s close) before the $33/$34 levels signals that the momentum has run its course.For now, though, positioning for more upside offers a solid risk-reward proposition . Prior to the initial decline, miners were weak relative to gold . However, after outperforming on Mar. 5, their steady hand was a sign of short-term strength. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the size and shape of the current price action actually mirrors what we witnessed back in April.Please see below:Figure 2 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), GDX and Slow Stochastic Oscillator Chart Comparison – 2020For context, I wrote on Mar. 5:Miners stopped their decline practically right in my target area, which I based on the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 2020 highs and lows. Moreover, the proximity of the $31 level corresponds to the 2019 high and the 2016 high. Since so many support levels coincide at the same price (approximately), the latter is likely to be a very strong support. Moreover, the RSI was just close to 30, which corresponded to short-term buying opportunities quite a few times in the past.In addition, a short-term upswing could provide a potential pathway to $35 – as this level also corresponds with the GDX ETF’s late-February high, its monthly declining resistance line and its 50-day moving average. The abundance of resistance levels – combined with the fact that an upswing would further verify the GDX ETF’s breakdown below the neckline of its potential head and shoulders pattern – should keep the upward momentum in check.Over the medium-term, the potential head and shoulders pattern – marked by the shaded green boxes above – also deserves plenty of attention.For context, I wrote previously:Ever since the mid-September breakdown below the 50-day moving average , the GDX ETF was unable to trigger a substantial and lasting move above this MA. The times when the GDX was able to move above it were also the times when the biggest short-term declines started.(…)The most recent move higher only made the similarity of this shoulder portion of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern to the left shoulder (figure 2 - both marked with green) bigger. This means that when the GDX breaks below the neck level of the pattern in a decisive way, the implications are likely to be extremely bearish for the next several weeks or months.Due to the uncanny similarity between the two green rectangles, I decided to check what happens if this mirror-similarity continues. I used purple, dashed lines for that. There were two important short-term price swings in April 2020 – one shows the size of the correction and one is a near-vertical move higher.Copying these price moves (purple lines) to the current situation, we get a scenario in which GDX (mining stocks) moves to about $31 and then comes back up to about $34. This would be in perfect tune with what I wrote previously. After breaking below the head-and-shoulders pattern, gold miners would then be likely to verify this breakdown by moving back up to the neck level of the pattern. Then, we would likely see another powerful slide – perhaps to at least $24.This is especially the case, since silver and mining stocks tend to decline particularly strongly if the stock market is declining as well. And while the exact timing of the market’s slide is not 100% clear, stocks’ day of reckoning is coming . And it might be very, very close.As I explained previously, based on the similarities to the 1929 and 2008 declines, it could be the case that the precious metals sector declines for about 3 months after the general stock market tops. And it seems that we won’t have to wait long for the latter. In fact, the next big move lower in stocks might already be underway, as the mid-Feb. 2021 top could have been the final medium-term top.In conclusion, the gold miners should continue to glisten as oversold conditions buoy them back to the $33-$35 range. Due to the GDX ETF’s recent strength, combined with gold rallying off of the lows on Mar. 5, the PMs could enjoy a profitable one-week (or so) party. However, with the celebration likely to be short-lived, it’s important to keep things in perspective. While this week’s performance may elicit superficial confidence, medium-term clouds have already formed. As a result, positioning for an extended rally offers more risk than reward.(We normally include the "Letters to the Editor" section in the full version of Gold & Silver Trading Alerts only, but today I decided to include it also in this free version of the full (about 10x bigger than what you just read) analysis, so that you get the idea of how this part of the analysis looks like. It might be quite informative too. Enjoy:)Letters to the EditorQ: Could you update your thoughts regarding physical [gold and silver] for those looking to acquire additional positions - specifically, what do you think premiums and availability are going to look like when/if spot goes a $100 or $200 down from here? By way of example, I bought some U.S. gold buffaloes at $1854 spot at $1954. Those same coins at $1710 spot are still around $1930, if there are any to be found.A: It’s a tough call, because the premium values don’t follow the technical patterns. Still, based on the analogy to situations that seem similar to what we saw recently, it seems that we can indeed say something about the likely physical values close to the likely $1,450 bottom.Figure 43 - Source: didthesystemcollapse.orgThe above chart shows the eBay premium for 1 oz Gold American Eagle coins over the spot gold price.In April 2020, the premium spiked at about 14%. It was likely even higher in March (we don’t have the direct data), but the volatility back then was bigger than it is right now, so it seems that the current premium and the April 2020 premium values are a better proxy for the future bottoming premiums than the March 2020 bottom premium would be. If the volatility increases, one could see the premium at about 15% or so.With gold at about $1,450, the above-mentioned information means Gold American Eagle coins can cost about $1,670.Still, since gold futures prices seem more predictable than the prices of bullion coins, I’d focus on the former even while timing the purchase of the latter.Moreover, please note that I’m planning to focus on buying mining stocks close to the bottom and move to metals only later. The reason is that miners tend to outperform in the early days of a major rally (just like they did in the first quarter of 2016). The fact that the premium is likely to be high when gold bottoms in a volatile manner is yet another reason for the above. When switching from mining stocks to physical holdings several weeks or months later, one might be buying at a smaller premium over the spot, and also after having gained more on miners than on the metals. Of course, the above is just my opinion, and you can purchase whatever you want – after all, it’s your capital and your investment decisions.Q: Please note that I am glad to see gold moving downwards but I am a little confused – the trading report I just received recommends selling at 1690ish but the mailing previously said 1450ish - please see attached.Could you please investigate and advise.A: If anything in the Gold & Silver Trading Alerts seems confusing, please refer to the “Summary”, the trading/investment positions, and the “Overview of the Upcoming Part of the Decline” sections for clarification. In this case, we exited the remaining short positions when gold hit $1,693 and almost immediately entered long ones (when gold hit $1,692). We now have long positions in the mining stocks with the plan to exit them in a week or so, and re-enter short positions then, because the next big move is likely to be to the downside (perhaps as low as $1,450 or so). Also, the above is just my opinion, not a recommendation or investment advice.Q: Hi P.R., thanks for the advice on this trend, it’s been an amazing trade.As I’m trading on XAUUSD, are you also able to advise the targets for a gold long entry,or should I wait for the final bottom before opening any longs?A: I’m very happy that you’re making profits thanks to my analyses. While I think that the very short-term (for the next 5 trading days or so) outlook for gold, silver and mining stocks is bullish, I think the targets are more predictable for mining stocks than they are for gold and – especially – silver. Still, this time, the short-term upside target for gold is also relatively clear – at about $1,770. That’s why I put the $1,758 in the “For-your-information target” for gold in the “Summary” section below.Q: Are we looking for the short-term upside move to be 1-5 weeks before the final decline into the 1350-1500 zone? I'm a little unsure of the timing you're laying out.A: I’m looking for the short-term upswing to take place between 1 and 3 weeks – that’s the part of the “Overview of the Upcoming Part of the Decline” section about it:It seems to me that the initial bottom has either just formed or is about to form with gold falling to roughly $1,670 - $1,680, likely this week.I expect the rebound to take place during the next 1-3 weeks.After the rebound (perhaps to $33 - $34 in the GDX), I plan to get back in with the short position in the mining stocks.In my opinion it’s most likely that this counter-trend rally will take about 1 – 1.5 weeks. Then, I think that the decline to about $1,450 in gold will start.Q: Thank you for sending out the Alert # 2 with the new changes in the Gold and Silver trades today. This is necessary, so please send out the alert once you enter back to the short positions, please.A: I’m happy that you enjoyed this intraday Alert. I will indeed send you – my subscribers – an intraday confirmation that the long positions were closed and when we enter new short positions. Still, please note that we already have binding profit-take exit prices in place, which means that when prices move to the target levels (e.g., GDX to $33.92), the long positions should be automatically closed, and profits should be taken off the table – even without an additional confirmation from me (it takes time for me to write and send the message and then some time usually passes before one is able to act on my message).Q: You have informed us to make the move when the Gold price “REACHES” $1693.00. My question is; Does the word “Reach” mean when the price touches that point, if only for a moment, or does “Reach” mean when it closes the day at or below $1693.00?Thank you for your response to this question.A: “Reaching” a price means the same thing as “touching” the price or “moving to” the price. This means moving to this price level on an intraday basis – even for just one tick . If I mean closing prices, I will specifically describe them as such.For instance, I currently have binding exit positions for the current long position in the mining stocks – and these are exactly the price levels that I have put in my brokerage account as a limit sell order.Q: Please comment on the Hindenburg Omen for stocks:Figure 44 - Source: RefinitivA: Thanks. The Hindenburg omen is not one of the most reliable indicators - even on the above chart, it’s clear that most of the signals were not followed by declines. Please note how many fake initial signals there were before stocks finally declined in 2019 or 2020. There are many other reasons to think that stocks are going to move much lower, though. In the very short-term they could still move higher, but this move could be fake and could turn out to be the right shoulder of the head-and-shoulders top formation.Q: 1) for shorter-term trades such as the potential 10% pop in the GDX, is NUGT better?2) the plan after we re-enter a short trade when the GDX gets to $33/$34 might mean a longer haul before we hit rock bottom . You have mentioned time-scales up to 20 weeks (ish). Due to a longer holding period , would the CFD route be a cheaper route when compared to NUGT? I’m asking in general terms because each provider imposes different fees and I don’t expect you to comment on the fees charged by IG, which is the service I use.I also recognize that NUGT only offers 2 X leverage, whereas CFD’s offer up to five times leverage.Finally, the manner in which you detail the rich tapestry of the economic forces that impact PMs is revealing and educational. I find this all fascinating.I have my own views which can be summed up like this: How many inflationary false-dawns and panics has the bond market had? Ever since 2008, when the FED launched QE, there have been numerous bouts and hissy fits of inflationary expectations that have subsequently sunk like a dodgy soufflé. I think this time is no different and it’s entirely possible the 30-year bond could drop to ZERO. I am in the deflationary camp.How might the 10 year at zero or possibly sub-zero and longer, out on the duration curve to (TLT ETF) dropping to 0.5%, affect the price of gold?Your thoughts as ever, are much appreciatedA: 1) That depends on whether one seeks leverage or not, and how much thereof. Please note that some short-term trades could sometimes become medium-term trades if the market decides to consolidate or move in the other direction before continuing the predicted trend. In this case, non-leveraged instruments are at an advantage over the leveraged ones, because they don’t suffer from the back-and-forth trading as much as the leveraged ones do.If one’s desired exposure to the GDX ETF wouldn’t exceed the cash that one dedicated to trading, then in order to have the same exposure one would simply have half of the capital employed in NUGT (which is 2x leveraged). This way, the exposure would be identical, but the NUGT would imply additional risk of losing more capital if the trade takes much longer than planned and/or if the price moves adversely first.Please note that there is also an additional way to gain leverage (it’s not available for everyone, though) and that is through the use of margin on one’s brokerage account. I’d prefer to use margin for the GDX before aiming to gain leverage through NUGT.In other words, I’d first use more cash for GDX before I’d go into NUGT. If I wanted to have even bigger exposure than the one achieved by employing more capital to GDX, I would then consider using margin, and then I would consider using NUGT if I still wanted to get more leverage.There might be some traders who would seek to combine both for even bigger leverage (buying NUGT on margin), but this is definitely not something that I’d recommend to most people. In fact, it seems that in many cases, sticking to the GDX would be a good way to go.2) I think I already replied to the first part of your question (NUGT vs. CFD) above. Also, for other people reading this reply – please note that CFDs (contracts for difference) are not available in many areas, including the USA and Canada.I’m glad to read that you enjoy reading my explanations of the current situation in the markets (precisely, my opinions on it).Real interest rates are one of the most important drivers for gold (along with the USD Index), so a drop in the 10-year rates to zero or sub-zero levels would likely be very beneficial for the gold prices.Figure 45Also, based on the pace at which the rates have rallied recently, they might be topping here, but… There was no decline in the previous 40 years that was as big as what we saw between 2018 and 2020. Consequently, the corrective upswing might be bigger as well. Also, the above chart is not necessarily the scale that is big enough to make very long-term conclusions.Figure 46Over the past centuries, whenever the rates fell very low, they then rallied back up with vengeance. After WW2, it theoretically would have been a “good idea” to keep stimulating the economy with low rates – and yet, they soared. Right now, the monetary authorities strive to be very dovish and keep pumping liquidity into the system, and yet the rates are rallying anyway.So, while the analogy to the previous years – or the past few decades – suggests that the rally in the rates might be over or close to being over, the very long-term chart suggests otherwise.To make the situation even more complicated, if the stock market has already topped in February, and we have already entered the Kondratiev winter cycle, it means that we can theoretically expect the rates to fall, then rise in a credit crunch, and then fall much lower.All in all, the outlook for the interest rates is anything but simple and clear. Perhaps what we see right now already IS the credit crunch and the 10-year rates are on their way to above 2% - after all, they used to return above their 200-day moving average after the previous medium-term declines. It seems to me that the move above 2% in the 10-year rates could correspond with gold’s decline below $1,500.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Consolidates Gains

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Consolidates Gains

John Benjamin John Benjamin 17.03.2021 08:27
XAUUSD builds support for a comebackA weaker US dollar has offered gold the opportunity to make a comeback just ahead of the Fed meeting later today.After having established a base at the round number 1700 the precious metal is struggling to clear the resistance at 1740, which coincides with the 20-day moving average. A neutral RSI suggests there is still room on the upside and a bullish breakout could add an extra $20 to the ounce (1760).However, in the case of a retreat below 1700, the price action is likely to go sideways and test the previous support at 1675.USDCAD capped by the falling trendlineThe Canadian dollar rises further as improvements in the domestic economy may lead the central bank to cut back on its QE.The bearish trendline from March 2020 has so far contained the US dollar’s multiple rebounds. The break below 1.2470 has confirmed that sellers are still in control.As the RSI dipped into the oversold area, short-term traders may take profit and cause a brief bounce. The zone between the psychological level of 1.2600 and the trendline is where strong selling interests would be.EURJPY tumbles to the trendlineThe euro took a hit after the suspension of the AstraZeneca shots caused a hiatus in the vaccine campaign across the continent.A diverging RSI in the overbought zone suggests an overextension and a loss in the bullish momentum. The pair is testing the rising trendline as the RSI goes into oversold. A failure to bounce back could send the price to the 20-day moving average (128.85).On the upside, 130.40 may keep a lid on the price action for the next few days.
Intraday Market Analysis – Bearish Breakout

Intraday Market Analysis – Bearish Breakout

John Benjamin John Benjamin 24.03.2021 07:31
GBPUSD cuts through major supportThe pound saw fresh sell-off despite a fall in the UK’s unemployment rate as average earnings, an indication of inflation remained subpar.Two failed attempts to breach the psychological level of 1.4000 have put the short side back in control. The bearish breakout below 1.3800 has intensified the selling pressure by triggering stop-losses and would call 1.3650 as the next target.In the meantime, as the RSI dipped into the oversold area, a brief pullback to around 1.3850 might fill more sell orders.XAUUSD breaks out of consolidation rangeGold came under pressure as the US dollar claws back losses from previous sessions.On the daily chart, the price is entangled between the 20 and 30-day moving averages which act as resistance after the February sell-off.Zooming into the hourly chart, the precious metal has been struggling near the supply area 1750-55.The narrowing trading range between the resistance and the rising trendline is a prelude to a breakout, and a close below 1728 would resume the downtrend with 1700 as the target.SPX 500 slides on profit-takingAs a reminiscence of the trade war, brewing international tensions with China could derail investor sentiment once again. After a two-week-long rally, the S&P 500 has retreated from its peak at 3989 in search of stronger support.Divergence between the price action and the RSI was a sign of exhaustion. Then successive breakouts below 3936 and 3911 prompted short-term traders to take profit.The latest rally could be a dead cat bounce unless it achieves a new high. To the downside, 3860 would be the next stop.
Intraday Market Analysis – Bullish Case

Intraday Market Analysis – Bullish Case

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.03.2021 08:00
USDJPY accelerates rallyThe US dollar climbs as the US economy is gaining steam while other parts of the world face new Covid restrictions.The pair has shot up to last June’s high at 109.85 after it broke out of the consolidation range under 109. The bias remains strongly bullish, though an overbought RSI would suggest a temporary pullback as traders take profit.In that case, the rising trendline and 20 and 30-hour moving averages would become the demand zone. A deeper retracement may find support from the former resistance at 109.20.XAUUSD awaits breakout catalystA firm US dollar is weighing on gold as Treasury yields hold ground. The recovery stalled after the price broke below the rising trendline, denting the optimism for a swift rebound.The precious metal is likely to stay range-bound until a catalyst, be it fundamental or technical, triggers a breakout.1718 is a key support and a bearish breakout could deepen the correction towards 1700.To the upside, bulls will need to remove 1745 to bring back confidence. After that, an extended rally may carry the price to 1780.GER 30 surges to new highEquity markets recovered swiftly after lower-than-expected US personal consumption expenditure quelled the fear of reflation.The DAX has bounced off the key short-term support at 14430 to challenge the all-time high at 14800.Solid momentum above a bullish MA cross confirms that buyers are still in control of the price action. A close above 14800 may convince more trend followers to join in and push the index higher.To the downside, 14590 would be the immediate support for the RSI to cool off.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Intraday Market Analysis – Testing Daily Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 13.04.2021 08:29
USDCHF retreats to major supportThe US dollar is treading water as traders await inflation data which would dictate the next movement.The greenback has fallen back to test the medium-term support (0.9210) from the daily chart after a three-month-long rally.An RSI divergence right above the key level is a sign that the correction has lost its momentum. Though a bullish breakout above 0.9280 will be needed to confirm a reversal.To the downside, a drop below the said support would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.9140.XAUUSD looks for supportGold is striving to consolidate its latest gains after a fall in US yields last week. After having established a solid support base at 1677, the price has rallied back to March’s high at 1757.A bullish breakout could lead to a sharp recovery as a result of triggering stop-losses and momentum buying.But for now, an overbought RSI has prompted profit-taking within the supply area. 1730 is the first line of defense as the metal pulls back to rebuild support.A deeper correction may lead to test 1710.US 30 rises along the trendlineThe Dow Jones flies high after Chairman Jerome Powell expressed his optimism in an interview that the US economy was set for a strong rebound.Following a breakout above its latest consolidation range (33250), the index has been grinding up along a rising trendline.The psychological level of 33400 would be the next target for the bulls. Though an overshot RSI may lead to a temporary pullback.The 30-hour moving average is the immediate support. Further down, 33510 along the trendline may see more buying interests.
Intraday Market Analysis – Whipsaw Catalyst

Intraday Market Analysis – Whipsaw Catalyst

John Benjamin John Benjamin 22.04.2021 08:20
USDCAD breaks out of rangeThe Canadian dollar surged after the BoC announced a reduction of its asset purchasing program.After a month-long consolidation, the loonie may have finally found momentum to break free. The sell-off below 1.2470 suggests strong selling interest and potential for bearish continuation. The price may retrace briefly after the RSI shot into the oversold zone.1.2650 is the immediate resistance and 1.2420 would be the next target. A combination of short-covering and fresh buying could send the price to 1.2360.EURGBP falls from key resistanceSterling rises higher as the UK’s core CPI accelerates to 1.1% YoY. The euro has met stiff selling pressure at 0.8720, a key resistance on the daily timeframe.Successive breakouts below 0.8670 then 0.8640 are a sign that sellers have taken control of the short-term direction.The RSI has recovered into the neutrality area, leaving the price vulnerable at the end of the current consolidation. The support-turned-resistance 0.8670 may cap a rebound.A drop below 0.8590 could trigger a new round of sell-off.XAUUSD grinds along rising trendlineBullion advances higher as the dollar index stays muted at a seven-week low. The price action has been in consolidation following a recent rally above 1757.A neutral RSI may suggest there is still room on the upside. 1814 from the daily chart is a major resistance, and its breach could trigger a reversal. On the downside, 1777 is the immediate support in case of a pullback.Further down, 1760 along the bullish trendline is a congestion area and may see strong buying interest from short-term trend-followers.
Intraday Market Analysis – In Search Of Support

Intraday Market Analysis – In Search Of Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 27.04.2021 08:11
EURUSD pulls back to supportThe euro popped higher after the Eurozone’s bond yields rose on improved sentiment. The pair maintained its recovery trajectory after it turned 1.1990 from resistance into support.The euro has met strong selling pressure at March’s high at 1.2110 while the RSI shot into the overbought area.The current retracement would test the demand zone between the psychological level of 1.2000 and 1.2045.A rebound followed by a rally above 1.2110 would suggest a bullish continuation towards 1.2180.NZDUSD rises above consolidation rangeRisk sentiment makes its return at the start of the week driving higher the commodity-linked New Zealand dollar.The pair has found strong support by the demand area above 0.7120. The current rebound is heading towards the key resistance (0.7270) from the daily chart.A bullish breakout could end the two-month-long consolidation and put the kiwi back on track.A rise above 0.7210 is the final confirmation for the bullish MA cross as the upward momentum accelerates. 0.7165 is the closest support in case of a retracement.XAUUSD tests major supportGold keeps the high ground as the US dollar index remains subdued near an eight-week low. Price action is currently sideways as buyers are trying to accumulate momentum after the latest series of higher highs.The RSI has cooled down from the overbought zone. The area around 1764 and the rising trendline (1770) is important support on an hourly basis.A rebound could propel the precious metal back to 1815.On the downside, however, a drop to 1744 may extend the consolidation by shaking out weak hands.
Intraday Market Analysis – S&P 500 Sees Bids On Trendline

Intraday Market Analysis – S&P 500 Sees Bids On Trendline

John Benjamin John Benjamin 14.05.2021 08:09
SPX 500 rebounds from daily trendlineThe S&P 500 reverses sharp decline as investors digest soaring consumer prices.On the daily timeframe, the index saw strong buying interest on the rising trendline (4040) from March 2020. In conjunction with the RSI’s double-dip in the oversold territory, traders were eager to pick up bargains. The sharp correction may end as swiftly as it started if buyers succeed in pushing above 4150.That would confirm the bullish MA cross off the major support. From there the price could rally back to the previous peak at 4144.NZDUSD bounces off supportThe risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar swings up as the ‘risk-off mood recedes. The pair has found support along with the 30-day moving average, above the demand zone around 0.7120.An oversold RSI could have led the sell-side to take profit at the support, turning the price around in the process. However, the kiwi faces multiple technical headwinds.The bulls will need to close above 0.7240 to regain the upper hand. Then 0.7305 is another key resistance. 0.7045 is the second support in case of a bearish breakout.XAUUSD finds Fibonacci supportGold struggles to hold on to its gains after the US dollar’s latest surge. The price action has met strong selling pressure at 1845, resistance from last February’s sell-off.It would be too soon to call a reversal, however, as the underlying momentum remains bullish. The precious metal has bounced back from the 38.2% Fibonacci level (1811) with the RSI skimming over the oversold area.The psychological level of 1800 sits at the 50% retracement level. A breakout above 1845 may extend the rally towards 1870.SPX 500 rebounds from daily trendlineThe S&P 500 reverses sharp decline as investors digest soaring consumer prices.On the daily timeframe, the index saw strong buying interest on the rising trendline (4040) from March 2020. In conjunction with the RSI’s double-dip in the oversold territory, traders were eager to pick up bargains. The sharp correction may end as swiftly as it started if buyers succeed in pushing above 4150.That would confirm the bullish MA cross off the major support. From there the price could rally back to the previous peak at 4144.NZDUSD bounces off supportThe risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar swings up as the ‘risk-off mood recedes. The pair has found support along with the 30-day moving average, above the demand zone around 0.7120.An oversold RSI could have led the sell-side to take profit at the support, turning the price around in the process. However, the kiwi faces multiple technical headwinds.The bulls will need to close above 0.7240 to regain the upper hand. Then 0.7305 is another key resistance. 0.7045 is the second support in case of a bearish breakout.XAUUSD finds Fibonacci supportGold struggles to hold on to its gains after the US dollar’s latest surge. The price action has met strong selling pressure at 1845, resistance from last February’s sell-off.It would be too soon to call a reversal, however, as the underlying momentum remains bullish. The precious metal has bounced back from the 38.2% Fibonacci level (1811) with the RSI skimming over the oversold area.The psychological level of 1800 sits at the 50% retracement level. A breakout above 1845 may extend the rally towards 1870.
Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Tests February’s Peak

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Tests February’s Peak

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.05.2021 09:31
GBPUSD grinds to 3-month high Sterling carries on its ascent as Britain’s jobless rate dropped to 4.8% between January and March. The pound was supported by rising bids after it broke above 1.4150. The breakout confirms the bullish MA cross from last Friday. February’s peak at 1.4240 is a major resistance ahead. Its breach could extend the rally to 1.44s. In the meantime, there is a limited risk to the downside as an overbought RSI within this supply zone may trigger profit-takings. 1.4130 is the immediate support should this happen. USOIL retraces from major supply zone Oil prices stay high as reopenings across Europe raise expectations of demand recovery. WTI is currently hovering under March’s peak at 67.90, a critical supply area where stiff pressure can be expected from profit-taking and fresh shorting. The price is likely to go sideways in the short term to build up momentum. The RSI has returned to the neutrality zone. A rebound from the area near 64.30 would suggest solid support. Further down, 63.30 is critical in safeguarding the current uptrend. XAUUSD tests daily resistance Weakness in the US dollar continues to fuel demand for bullions. Gold has been inching up along the 30-hour moving average. Bullish sentiment takes a foothold after a series of higher highs. The price action is now testing a key resistance level at 1874 from the daily timeframe. Combined with an overextended RSI, the supply pressure could prompt short-term traders to cash in. 1844 would be the first support in case of a correction. On the upside, a bullish breakout may send the price to the psychological level of 1900.
Intraday Market Analysis – DAX Surges To A New High

Intraday Market Analysis – DAX Surges To A New High

John Benjamin John Benjamin 25.05.2021 06:57
GER 30 jumps above previous highThe DAX 30 recoups last week’s losses as the EU sets to reopen its borders. The psychological level at 15000 has proven to be a solid demand zone.The rally above the intermediate resistance at 15400 acts as a confirmation of the bullish MA cross.By lifting offers around the previous peak at 15540 the index would break free of its recent consolidation range. Renewed interest from momentum buyers may send the market to new record highs.15350 is the first support in case of a retracement.XAUUSD trades in consolidationGold consolidates its gains as the US dollar index stays subdued at the start of the week.The rally gained momentum after it broke above the daily resistance at 1855.The latest sideways action has enabled the RSI to retreat into the neutrality area. This may attract more buyers without raising concerns of overextension.A bullish close above 1890 could swiftly lift resistance at 1900 and resume the rally to 1917. On the downside, 1853 is the closest support if the price action requires more bids.NZDJPY bounces off psychological supportThe New Zealand dollar saw support after retail sales showed a 2.5% increase in Q1. The pair is hovering above a major support (77.70) from the daily chart.The psychological level at 78.00 has seen strong buying interest after the bears’ failed to push lower on several occasions. The support-turned-resistance at 78.50 has so far capped the kiwi’s rebounds.A bullish breakout would send the price towards 79.00. An overbought RSI may signal a brief pullback for the bulls to gather momentum.
Intraday Market Analysis – USDJPY Looks For Buying Interest

Intraday Market Analysis – USDJPY Looks For Buying Interest

John Benjamin John Benjamin 01.06.2021 10:20
USDJPY retraces in search of supportThe US dollar’s rally ran out of steam for lack of liquidity during the long weekend in the US and the UK.Traders are cautious in bidding up amid thin trading volume especially after last week’s surge above the psychological level of 110.00. The RSI is retreating into the neutrality area. The bearish MA cross may attract some selling interest in the near term.The zone between 109.00 and 109.30, a former resistance, would be a key support to watch for. The peak at 110.20 is the resistance in case of rebound.XAUUSD breaks out of horizontal consolidationGold stays on high ground following a retreat in Treasury yields at the end of last week. The precious metal is consolidating its gains after the previous round of rallies.The general direction remains upward despite a choppy path. A bullish breakout above 1911.00 after a brief pause suggests strong buying interest.1900.50 is the immediate support as buyers build up their stakes. 1927.50 would be the next target. Then an extended rally may send the price back to January’s peak at 1959.00.US 30 recovers towards peakUS stock markets remain well-supported by recovery momentum into the summer. The Dow Jones index is still rising steadily towards the previous high at 35100.The rally above the supply zone around 34500 suggests that the bulls were willing to pay up to reverse the sell-off. A break above the intermediate resistance at 34700 could increase the bullish momentum.As the price achieves a series of higher highs again, an overbought RSI may briefly temper the bullish fever. 34220 is the closest support.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Finds Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 07.06.2021 10:09
XAUUSD grinds short-term resistanceGold is recouping recent losses as the US dollar dips on unconvincing jobs data.The price has met strong buying interest at the key support at 1855, which lies near the 20-day moving average. The V-shaped recovery is likely to meet resistance below 1910. An overbought RSI could prompt short-term players to take profit.Bullish sentiment remains unchallenged from the daily chart’s perspective despite short-term volatility. A bullish breakout could resume the rally towards 1950.EURCAD bounces from demand zoneThe Canadian dollar slipped after the unemployment rate rose to 8.2% in May.The euro has so far been capped by the 30-day moving average on the daily chart.From an intraday point of view, the pair has established a support base around 1.4640-1.4660, after a lengthy consolidation. The sellers’ struggle to reach lower could be a sign of exhaustion, which may attract early buyers in the hope of a reversal.A rally above 1.4750 could challenge the major supply area at 1.4820.SPX 500 rallies to previous peakThe S&P 500 rallied after mixed US nonfarm payrolls tempered reflation fears.The short-lived correction saw solid bids at 4165, the base of a previous rally.Bullish momentum above the immediate resistance of 4125 is an indication that the short side has rushed to cover their bets. 4245 is a critical resistance and its breach could propel the index to a new record high.The RSI has ventured into the overbought area. A temporary pullback is likely to look for support above 4185.
XAUUSD tests critical daily support

XAUUSD tests critical daily support

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 23.06.2021 10:17
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Looks For Rebound CatalystThe US dollar catching its breath offers bullions some respite.Gold is now hovering above May’s low at 1760, an important support from the daily chart. Its breach could invalid the rally from late March.The bullish RSI divergence indicates that the sell-off may have lost steam in this demand zone. A combination of profit-taking and fresh buying could help the metal recover.A confirmation would be close above the psychological level of 1800, which would then convince buyers to join in.USDCHF struggles on high groundThe US dollar softens, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell insists on not raising interest rates too soon.The pair has come under pressure near 0.9250, previously a support that has turned into a key resistance. The RSI divergence suggests a loss in the upward momentum and buyers may close out at the first sign of weakness.0.9170 is the immediate support. Its breach could trigger a 100-pip fall to the next level at 0.9070. A rally above the said resistance may propel the price to above 0.9300.NAS 100 grinds along bullish trendlineThe US tech index shrugged off inflation fear and recovered to an all-time high.Price action has bounced off of the rising trendline established in late March. This is a strong bullish indication amid sell-offs across equity markets.The RSI has returned to the neutral area, allowing buyers to accumulate without appearing to overdo it. The Nasdaq has broken above 14220 and may trigger a runaway rally towards 14400 as momentum players stake in. 14080 near the trendline is a key support to monitor.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Struggles At Resistance

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 12.07.2021 11:43
XAUUSD rally slows downGold grinds higher as the US dollar softens amid lower Treasury yields.The rally slowed as the bulls pushed towards the key resistance at 1824. A bullish breakout could trigger an extended rally and further confirm the reversal.However, the RSI divergence may temper the enthusiasm. Its failure to follow the price and achieve a higher high is a warning sign of fading momentum.1790 is the immediate support and its breach could send the price to 1775, where the precious metal first broke out of its bearish range.CADJPY recovers temporarilyThe Canadian dollar bounces back after a fall in June’s unemployment rate.The drop below 88.00, the origin of the previous rebound, has put the loonie back on the correction path.The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold zone has prompted intraday players to take profit, momentarily driving up the price.This may turn out to be a dead cat bounce as the pair tests the supply area around 88.80. A drop below 87.40 could lead to another round of sell-off towards the major demand zone around 86.50 on the daily chart.UK 100 holds above daily supportThe FTSE 100 recovers as lackluster GDP growth may keep the BOE off the hawkish path.The index is in consolidation between the daily support at 6940 and 7200. As long as the bulls bid up the price above the support, the medium-term rally is still intact.The current volatility is a sign of short-term turnover. After the RSI rose back from an oversold situation, price action found support at the psychological level of 7000.7150 is the resistance ahead, a breakout could challenge the peak at 7200.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Catalyst Breakout

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Catalyst Breakout

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 28.07.2021 09:47
XAUUSD seeks supportGold bounces back as the US dollar retreats ahead of the Fed meeting later today.The price has been treading water above 1790 as the bulls struggle to save the rebound. The dip below the psychological level of 1800 has shaken out weak hands.The current consolidation is a sign of indecision ahead of a catalyst-driven breakout. 1824 is a major hurdle and its breach would heighten momentum and resume the stalled rally.Below the support, the bears may push gold towards 1755 and threaten the rebound.AUDUSD consolidates post-breakoutThe Australian dollar inched higher, supported by upbeat CPI, in Q2. Though price action struggles to bounce back after it broke below 0.7410, a support from the previous timid rebound.Sentiment has grown increasingly bearish and sellers are eager to offer at higher prices. 0.7440 has turned from a demand into a supply zone.If buyers fail to push above this threshold, 0.7290 would be the path of least resistance. A bearish breakout could trigger a new round of sell-off to last November’s lows around 0.7130.USOIL tests fresh supportOil prices continue to recoup previous losses as traders bet on tightening supply.WTI’s swift recovery above 71.10 is an encouraging sign that buyers are still hanging around. Following the breakout, 70.10 has established itself as a fresh support.The RSI has dropped back to the neutrality area and the bulls may have the last word if the support holds tight. Otherwise, price action could be seeing 66.00 sooner than expected.On the upside, 74.70 is the key resistance to clear before the bullish trend could carry on.
Intraday Market Analysis – NZD Sees Bearish Whipsaws

Intraday Market Analysis – NZD Sees Bearish Whipsaws

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 18.08.2021 09:49
NZDUSD tests major supportThe New Zealand dollar struggles as the RBNZ postpones its rate hike against expectations.The pair had failed to push above the supply area near 0.7100 from the daily chart. The RSI’s double top was a sign of overextension.The sell-off below the psychological level of 0.7000 and then 0.6960 indicates that sentiment has turned sour. A recovering RSI could be an opportunity to sell into strength.A break below 0.6890 may extend the sell-off towards 0.6700. 0.7030 is the first resistance in case of a rebound.AUDUSD falls through supportThe Australian dollar fell after the RBA minutes tempered the taper optimism amid COVID-19 restrictions.The pair has been under pressure at the 20-day moving average. The drop below 0.7290 may have resumed the downtrend after a four-week-long consolidation.Strong bearish momentum is an indication of high turnover between buyers bailing out and sellers piling in. 0.7170 would be the next target. The key resistance at 0.7340 will likely cap a limited rebound, while the RSI climbs from the oversold area.XAUUSD rises to key resistanceGold extended its recovery supported by a retreat in US Treasury yields.The price has recouped most losses from the previous sharp liquidation. A break above the intermediary resistance at 1762 has confirmed strong buying interest.Buyers will need to close above the origin of the firesale and the psychological level of 1800 to seal the deal in their favor. Then 1830 would be the last hurdle before a full-blown reversal.A repeatedly overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback with 1755 as key support.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Breakout

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Breakout

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 02.09.2021 08:41
XAUUSD tests daily resistanceGold consolidates recent gains ahead of the US jobs reports.Traders are looking for direction after the metal recouped most losses from the August sell-off. 1832 is major resistance on the daily chart.A bullish breakout may trigger an extended rally as the short side bails out. We can expect volatility with 1860 as a potential target. A fall below 1790 however would tip the balance to the downside.1755 would be the first support in a retracement. In the meantime, an overbought RSI has led intraday buyers to take profit.EURGBP consolidates supportThe euro inched higher after a drop in the unemployment rate across the eurozone in July.The recovery has gained momentum after the pair cleared the daily resistance at 0.8555. The 20-day MA crossing the 30-day one suggests that sentiment may have turned around.Following a short consolidation, the single currency has met buying interest along 0.8550 and then 0.8570. 0.8610 is the next resistance and its breach could clear the path for a rally to the recent peak at 0.8660.USOIL hits key resistanceWTI crude found support from the EIA’s report of a large reduction in US stockpiles. The V-shaped rebound is now testing the key hurdle on the daily timeframe (69.50).An RSI divergence indicates a loss in the upward momentum. Short-term buyers have taken some chips off the table and caused a pullback. 67.00 is the immediate support.A deeper retracement may send the price to 65.30. On the upside, a close above 69.50 may open the door to 73.00 and reverse an eight-week long correction.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Attempts Rebound

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Attempts Rebound

John Benjamin John Benjamin 15.09.2021 08:57
USDCHF seeks supportThe US dollar initially tumbled after a minor drop in August’s core CPI. However, the pair can capitalize on strong buying interest from the trough near 0.9150.A tentative break of August’s high at 0.9240 suggests that buyers are in control of price action. Though an overbought RSI has tempered the bullish drive, the latest pullback to 0.9180 can be an accumulation phase.A rebound may lift bids to July’s high at 0.9275. A breach of that ceiling would attract momentum buying and resume the greenback’s rally.XAUUSD bounces off demand zoneGold surged thanks to a decline in Treasury yields. The precious metal had met stiff selling pressure at the triple top (1830) from the daily chart.Short-term sentiment has turned positive after a week-long consolidation above the demand area of 1780. The break above 1803 would prompt the bears to cover their bets. An overbought RSI may trigger a temporary pullback.A rebound would challenge the critical level of 1830 once again, where a bullish breakout may resume the five-week-long rally.US 30 breaks supportThe Dow Jones 30 retreated as last month’s US inflation remained above the Fed’s target. The index was bought out of the dip over the daily support at 34580.The rebound turned out to be short-lived after a breakout invalidated this key floor. A bearish MA cross indicates that sentiment has become increasingly downbeat.The psychological level (34000) from last July would be the next target. On the upside, 34950 is a fresh resistance where sellers would be eager to erase any rebound.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Meets Resistance

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Meets Resistance

Jing Ren Jing Ren 26.08.2021 09:05
XAUUSD tests key resistance The US dollar’s weakness continues to fuel the gold rush. The precious metal has recouped most losses from the crash earlier this month. The rapid recovery indicates traders’ strong willingness to buy the dips. The price is about to test the major supply zone between 1810 and 1830 from the daily chart. Analysts can expect stiff selling pressure as short-term buyers take profit. A bullish breakout may jump-start the uptrend once again. As the RSI goes muted, 1785 is the first level to gauge the strength of the rebound. USDNOK retreats to critical support The commodity-linked Norwegian krone strengthened as oil prices recovered. The greenback had met stiff selling pressure at the double top (9.1000). The subsequent break below 8.8800 suggests that hands are weak on the long side. Profit-taking and fresh selling have sent the price to 8.7800, which is critical support from the daily timeframe. Its breach could signal a bearish reversal. An oversold RSI may attract some buying interest, but the bulls will need to lift offers around 8.9200 before they could push for a rebound. USOIL heads towards daily resistance WTI crude rallied after the EIA showed a drop in the US inventories. Price action continues on its upward journey after it bounced off May’s low at 62.00. A bullish RSI divergence at that major support suggested that the selling pressure was fading. The rally above 67.40 is a confirmation that buyers have taken over. 69.50 is the hurdle ahead and a breakout may end a seven-week long consolidation and resume the uptrend. An overbought RSI may trigger a limited pullback. 65.70 would be the first support in that case.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Regains Bullish Momentum

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Regains Bullish Momentum

John Benjamin John Benjamin 23.09.2021 08:51
USDJPY bounces off triple bottomThe US dollar recovered after the Fed signaled an interest rate hike next year.The fall below 109.60 had made buyers cautious in an extended consolidation with the market marred by indecision as the pair swung between 109.10 and 110.40. A triple bottom at 109.10 is a sign of strong buying interest when the RSI showed an oversold situation.The bulls need to push above the psychological level of 110.00 to trigger a rally. Otherwise, a break below 109.10 may force them to bail out and send the pair to 108.70.XAUUSD meets tough resistanceGold tumbles as the US dollar’s rally gains traction. The precious metal has met solid bids in the demand zone around 1742.A bullish RSI divergence has indicated that selling pressure may have waned. A close above the immediate resistance at 1767 has attracted some buying interests, though an overbought RSI has checked the upward impetus.1796 from the previous consolidation remains a key hurdle. Its breach would open the door to the daily resistance at 1830. On the downside 1760 is fresh support.USOIL to test major resistanceWTI crude holds onto its gains after a larger-than-expected decrease in US inventories. The price had met stiff selling pressure at 73.00 where the August sell-off started.A bullish RSI divergence in the demand zone of 69.50 indicates a loss of momentum in the retracement. A rebound above 71.30 is a confirmation that buyers are still in the game and a bullish MA cross may suggest an acceleration in the rally.A break above 73.00 would lead to the next daily resistance at 74.00. 70.60 is the first support in case of a pullback.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Regains Bullish Momentum - 23.09.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Regains Bullish Momentum - 23.09.2021

Jing Ren Jing Ren 23.09.2021 08:55
USDJPY bounces off triple bottom The US dollar recovered after the Fed signaled an interest rate hike next year. The fall below 109.60 had made buyers cautious in an extended consolidation with the market marred by indecision as the pair swung between 109.10 and 110.40. A triple bottom at 109.10 is a sign of strong buying interest when the RSI showed an oversold situation. The bulls need to push above the psychological level of 110.00 to trigger a rally. Otherwise, a break below 109.10 may force them to bail out and send the pair to 108.70. XAUUSD meets tough resistance Gold tumbles as the US dollar’s rally gains traction. The precious metal has met solid bids in the demand zone around 1742. A bullish RSI divergence has indicated that selling pressure may have waned. A close above the immediate resistance at 1767 has attracted some buying interests, though an overbought RSI has checked the upward impetus. 1796 from the previous consolidation remains a key hurdle. Its breach would open the door to the daily resistance at 1830. On the downside 1760 is fresh support. USOIL to test major resistance WTI crude holds onto its gains after a larger-than-expected decrease in US inventories. The price had met stiff selling pressure at 73.00 where the August sell-off started. A bullish RSI divergence in the demand zone of 69.50 indicates a loss of momentum in the retracement. A rebound above 71.30 is a confirmation that buyers are still in the game and a bullish MA cross may suggest an acceleration in the rally. A break above 73.00 would lead to the next daily resistance at 74.00. 70.60 is the first support in case of a pullback.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Breaks Lower

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Breaks Lower

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.09.2021 09:13
XAUUSD lacks supportGold slumps due to rising US Treasury yields. The demand zone around 1745 has failed to contain the market’s pessimism.The latest bounce has been an opportunity to sell into strength, reinforcing the bearish bias. A combination of loss-cutting and fresh selling would raise the downward momentum.The precious metal is heading towards 1720. A breakout would trigger an extended sell-off to the August low at 1680. The bulls have the daunting task of lifting 1760 before they could expect a meaningful rebound.AUDUSD hits resistanceThe Australian dollar inched higher after a smaller contraction in August’s retail sales.The pair has found strong support at 0.7220. Three consecutive tests are an indication of solid interest in keeping the Aussie afloat.0.7320 is the first resistance ahead. Its breach may shake the sellers out and trigger a rebound to 0.7410.Otherwise, a fall below the said support would cause a deeper correction to the critical level of 0.7105.  Erasing all of the gains from late August would seriously dent buyers’ optimism for a rally.USDCAD bounces off supportThe Canadian dollar is under pressure as oil prices retreat. The pair saw buying interest at 1.2600, which is major support for a four-month-long rally on the daily timeframe.The RSI’s bullish divergence indicates that the selling pressure may have waned.A break above the immediate resistance (1.2670) would prompt sellers to cover. 1.2800 near September’s peak could be the target should a rebound gain traction.On the downside, a bearish breakout may send the price to the psychological level of 1.2500.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Sell-Off Fades

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Sell-Off Fades

John Benjamin John Benjamin 06.10.2021 09:30
XAUUSD tests resistanceGold hit a speed bump after an upbeat ISM Services PMI boosted the dollar’s appeal.The metal saw buying interest in the major demand zone around 1720. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the pace of the sell-off. The initial surge above 1745 could be due to profit-taking from the short side, a prerequisite for a reversal.1775 is the main hurdle and its breach may lead to the psychological level of 1800. On the downside, the area between 1720 and 1740 is the floor to keep price action afloat.AUDUSD attempts to reboundThe Australian dollar consolidated its gains after the RBA played down the rate-hike pressure.The rally above 0.7250 has prompted short-term traders to take some chips off the table. However, the bulls will need to clear the main hurdle at 0.7310 before they could extend upward. The RSI’s double top in this congestion area may momentarily restrain their optimism.In case of a pullback, 0.7190 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. Failing that, the pair could tumble towards the daily support at 0.7120.NAS 100 breaks key supportThe Nasdaq 100 struggles as investors rotate out of growth stocks amid an uncertain outlook.The break below last July’s low (14450) has pushed the index into a deeper correction. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart points to a downgrade in market sentiment.An oversold RSI has caused a temporary rebound, which would be an opportunity for trend followers to sell into strength. 14330 is the next support. Short-term traders who are brave enough to buy the dips must push through 14850 to secure a foothold.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Plunges Below Support

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Plunges Below Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.10.2021 09:00
USDCAD falls through critical floor The US dollar tumbled after weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls in September. The pair has struggled to bounce back over the past few weeks. The break below 1.2500, a major demand zone on the daily chart, is the straw that broke the camel’s back. 1.2430 is the next support. And its breach could trigger an extended sell-off towards July’s low at 1.2300. As buyers bail out, high volatility has pushed the RSI into the oversold territory. A bounce is likely to be capped by 1.2600, and it could be an opportunity to sell into strength. XAUUSD attempts bullish reversal Gold surges as a slowdown in the US job market weighs on the US dollar. A bullish candle above the first resistance on the daily chart (1775) has forced the bears to cover their positions, exacerbating the momentum in the process. Now that the selling pressure is out of the way, the bulls may consolidate their gains and build strength for a reversal. The psychological level of 1800 would be the next target. However, an overbought RSI has caused a temporary pullback towards the demand area between 1740 and 1755. GER 40 bounces off major support The Dax 40 rallies as risk sentiment returns. The index has bounced off last May’s lows around 14820. A depressed RSI in this major demand area has attracted solid buying interest. A close above 15200 may have prompted short-term sellers to cover. The bulls will have the challenging task of clearing several resistance levels, the first being 15470 on the 30-day moving average. A pullback may test the psychological level of 15000. Further down, 14820 is a critical floor to keep the uptrend intact in the medium term.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Attempts To Rebound

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Attempts To Rebound

Jing Ren Jing Ren 20.10.2021 09:08
Gold inched higher as the dollar index hit a two-week low. The latest rebound has been checked by the psychological level of 1800. With the RSI showing an overbought situation, short-term buyers were swift in taking profit from this resistance on the daily chart. The pullback has met buying interest over 1760. There is an expectation for sideways action in the next few hours as traders wait for a breakout. A deeper correction would test the floor at 1730, while a higher high may send the precious metal to the triple top at 1830. EURGBP breaks below support The sterling soared after BOE Governor Bailey said that the central bank may act to contain inflation. Sentiment has become increasingly bearish over the euro after its break below August’s low at 0.8450. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates an acceleration to the downside. An oversold RSI has led to a limited rebound towards 0.8485, which may turn out to be an opportunity to sell into strength. 0.8350 near February 2020’s lows would be the next target when momentum traders jump in to bid up the pound. US 30 recovers to previous peak The Dow Jones rallies as investors look past macro concerns and focus on earnings instead. The break above the supply zone around 35000 has prompted the bears to cover. The index then went on to recoup most losses from the September sell-off. With the short-side out of the picture, sentiment might have turned around. 35500 is a major resistance and a bullish breakout would resume the uptrend for new all-time highs. As the RSI suggests an overextension, 35050 is fresh support in case of retracement.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Seeks Support

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Seeks Support

Jing Ren Jing Ren 28.10.2021 12:26
Gold treads water as markets await a slew of central bank decisions in the coming days. The recent break above the daily resistance at 1805 is a prerequisite for a bullish turnaround. However, the rally has met stiff selling pressure at the supply zone around 1813 which is at the origin of the September sell-off. Along with a repeatedly overbought RSI, a combination of profit-taking and fresh selling may weigh on the precious metal in the short term. 1777 is the immediate support and its breach would send the price to 1760. USDCAD pierces through supports The Canadian dollar surged after the Bank of Canada ended its QE. As the RSI from the daily chart showed an oversold situation, the greenback had attracted bargain hunters at its four-month low around 1.2300. However, it has given up all recent gains as it revisits the bottom. 1.2430 is now fresh resistance and the downtrend may resume. 1.2200 would be the next target as those who have been waiting for a catalyst join in. An oversold RSI has caused a temporary rebound which is likely to meet strong selling interest. USOIL retraces after overextension WTI crude tumbled after an unexpected surge in US inventories. Medium-term sentiment remains bullish, though an overbought RSI on the daily chart may prompt buyers to proceed with caution. A fall below 82.50 and then 81.00 has exacerbated profit-takings as late buyers rushed for the exit. 79.50 is the next support. A bearish breakout would extend the correction to 77.00 which was previously a resistance, making it an area of interest. An oversold RSI may trigger a rebound with 82.30 as a fresh resistance.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Struggles To Bounce Back

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Struggles To Bounce Back

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.11.2021 08:38
EURUSD claws back lossesThe US dollar fell after the Federal Reserve called for patience on raising interest rates.The pair has met strong resistance at 1.1690, a previous demand zone on the daily chart that has turned into a supply one. The latest sell-off has been contained by 1.1535, near the base of the recent rebound as an oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters.A surge above the intermediate resistance of 1.1620 would bring in more momentum traders. Then a break above 1.1690 could kickstart a bullish reversal in favor of the euro.XAUUSD tests resistanceGold recovers as the US dollar softens across the board following a neutral FOMC.Price action had previously struggled to clear the supply area around 1810, the origin of the September correction. The subsequent fall below the support at 1785 has prompted buyers to take profit.However, the RSI’s repeated oversold situation has caught buyers’ attention at the daily support at 1760. 1785 is the hurdle ahead and a bullish breakout would resume the recovery. Failing that, the bears may push towards 1740.USOIL falls back for supportWTI crude slipped after the EIA reported a larger increase in US inventories. The psychological level of 85.00 has been an effective hurdle so far.The previous fall below 81.00 has put the bulls on the defensive, especially after their failure to achieve a new high above 84.70. This is a confirmation that sentiment has grown cautious after the price’s recent vertical ascent.The RSI’s overbought situation on the daily chart could call for a pullback. 79.50 is the closest support. Its breach may send the price to 76.50.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Cuts Through Resistance

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Cuts Through Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.11.2021 09:26
USDJPY attempts a bullish reversalThe US dollar broke higher after October’s CPI exceeded expectations.On the daily chart, the RSI has dropped back into the neutrality area. The greenback has secured bids around the 30-day moving average. An oversold RSI on the hourly chart attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd at 112.70.The latest surge above the psychological level of 114.00 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, paving the way for a bullish reversal above 114.25. Before that, an overbought RSI may lead to a pullback towards 113.05.XAUUSD breaks resistanceRising US CPI boosts the demand for gold as an inflation hedge.After being unable to clear the daily chart’s triple top at 1833 over the course of the summer, the precious metal has cut through the resistance like a hot knife through butter. High volatility suggests that sellers were quick to bail out.As momentum traders jump in, the bullish breakout would lead to an extended rally towards 1900. An overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback. In that case, 1823 at the base of the rally may see strong buying interest.USOIL retreats from resistanceWTI crude edged lower after the EIA reported a slight rise in US inventories. The price’s swift recovery above the sell-off point at 83.00 is an indication that sentiment remains overall optimistic.However, the previous peak and psychological level of 85.00 seems like a tough hurdle to overcome for now. An overbought RSI has triggered a temporary pullback with a break below 81.90. In turn, this is deepening the correction towards 79.30.Trend followers may see the limited retracement as an opportunity to stake in.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Approaches Supply Zone

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Approaches Supply Zone

John Benjamin John Benjamin 16.11.2021 09:28
XAUUSD tests trendlineGold continues on its way up as investors seek to hedge against inflationary pressures. The rally picked up steam after a break above the triple top at 1833. Price action is grinding up along a rising trendline.The bulls are pushing towards 1884, a major resistance where last June’s sell-off started. Strong selling pressure is possible in that supply zone as short-term buyers may take profit and reassess the directional bias.1855 on the trendline is the first support. A bearish breakout may trigger a correction to 1823.AUDUSD breaks above bearish channelThe Australian dollar softened after the RBA minutes reiterated that there will be no rate hike until 2024.The pair has found buying interest at the base of October’s bullish breakout (0.7280). A break above the falling channel indicates that sentiment could be turning around.0.7390 is a key resistance and its breach could prompt sellers to bail out. In turn, this would raise volatility in the process. Traders may then switch sides in anticipation of a reversal. An overbought RSI has so far limited the upside impetus.GER 40 rally gains tractionThe Dax 40 climbed after upbeat retail sales and industrial production in China lifted market sentiment.The index is seeking to consolidate its recent gains after it cleared the previous peak at 15990 which has now turned into support. Sentiment remains optimistic and 16300 would be the next step.An overbought RSI on the daily chart may temporarily put the brakes on the bullish fever. But a pullback may once again attract a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd above 15990. A deeper correction may send the price towards 15770.
Market Quick Take - November 19, 2021

Market Quick Take - November 19, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 19.11.2021 10:43
Summary:  Equity markets charged higher in the US session to close at new record highs, and the upside extended further in the futures market overnight. In FX, the recent USD strength eased slightly, while oil prices are creeping back higher despite the recent fears of strategic reserve releases. Markets are nervously awaiting the announcement of who US President Biden will nominate to head the Fed after the current Powell term ends in February. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equities pushed to new all-time highs yesterday led by technology stocks and strong macro figures across manufacturing surveys and job market data such as jobless claims. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading around the 16,560 level in early European trading with the 16,500 being the intraday day support level. A recent survey among institutional investors shows that a majority is believing in the transitory inflation narrative which can help explain why investors in equities are looking through the latest inflation pressures. EURUSD and EURGBP – the beleaguered euro finally bounced back a bit after its recent remarkable slide, although it is tough to see what could engineer a reversal of the move below the 1.1500 level, which is the key chart resistance now, although Biden announcing Brainard as his pick to head the Fed next February could drive considerable short-term volatility. To stop the euro from a persistent slide, we would need a very different tone from the ECB than it has delivered recently, with no real opportunity to do so until the December 16 ECB meeting. With power prices and a new Covid wave weighing on the outlook, the ECB will very likely be happy to stay firmly dovish. USDJPY – the highs for the cycle near the psychologically important 115.00 look safe as long as US treasury yields at the longer end of the curve remain rangebound, but trading above that level could get volatile if it is broken, as some options structures may be linked to its breaking or not breaking. The next test for the price action is clearly the Fed Chair nomination that appears imminent – possibly today or over the weekend (more below in What are we watching next?). Gold (XAUUSD) has spent the week trading within a relatively narrow range between $1850 and $1870 as it awaits a fresh catalyst following last week’s breakout. The impressive rally that occurred despite headwind from a stronger dollar has stalled with bond yields picking up and the market wondering how the US Federal Reserve will manage the current inflation spike. Silver and especially platinum have both struggled to keep up with gold while ETF investors have yet to show any interest in accumulating exposure. All developments raising the risk of a retracement towards the $1830-35 key area of support. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSDEC21) managed to recover yesterday after the market brushed aside the potential negative price impact of a US SPR release. US attempts to attract wider support from other major importing countries seems to have fallen flat, except for China who is “working” on a release. Having dropped more than five dollars since speculation began, the market has concluded for now that the price impact of a release could be limited. The market, however, may still have to deal with the recent updates from EIA and IEA, in which they both forecast current tight market conditions could start to ease early next year as well as renewed Covid-related reductions in mobility. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). Yesterday’s 10-year US TIPS auction stopped through, pricing at a record low yield at -1.145%. It is a signal that investors are ever more concerned about inflation risk.  The Treasury also sold 4-week and 8-week T-Bills. While the latter was priced in line with the Reverse Repurchase facility, 4-week T-Bills priced with a yield of 0.11%, more than double the RRP rate. As we approach the day in which the Treasury will run out of cash, we expect volatility in the money market to increase, while long-term yields will remain compressed as they will serve as a safe haven. In the meantime, the move index continues to rise indicating that the bond market remains on the hedge. What is going on? Central Bank of Turkey cut another 100 basis points from the policy rate, lira plunge extends. The Turkish lira has lost more than 10% versus the US dollar this week and trades well over 11.00 after Turkish President Erdogan earlier this week declared himself once again against high interest rates, which he believes cause inflation. Central bank chief Kavcioglu, who is seen as doing Erdogan’s bidding, cut rates for a third time by 1.0% to take the policy rate to 15%, but with the Turkish lira losing over 10% this week alone and more than 30% since Erdogan fired the prior more hawkish central bank head in favour of Kavcioglu, inflation will run far beyond the rate. Not even some guidance that the easing cycle may conclude in December was enough to halt the lira’s slide. US Nov. Philly Fed survey hits 39.0, a very hot reading and fourth highest ever - with Prices Paid at 80 and just missing the 42-year high of 80.7 in June, although the Prices Received was at 62.9, the highest since 1974. Special survey questions in the Novemer  survey included one on inflation expectations, with firms expecting a median 5.3% increase in their own prices, and an increase in wages of 4.8%. The median forecast for 10-year inflation was 3.5%, up from the 3.0% the last time the question was asked in August. The Bloomberg Agriculture Index hit a fresh five-year high this week with food prices likely to stay high in 2022 with labor shortages, La Ninã weather impacts, surging cost of fertilizers being the common denominator across the sector. Recent gains being led by coffee, which we highlighted earlier in the week as a commodity currently seeing multiple price supportive developments. Wheat is heading for a nine-year high in Chicago while hitting record highs in Europe with inventories tumbling amid strong demand from importers and now also a rain threat to the soon-to-be harvested Australian crop. Soybeans have seen a strong bounce after the latest WASDE report showed a tighter than expected outlook for the coming year, and following a recent rush of Chinese buying from the US and South America. Apple doubles down on self-driving cars. The company is aiming to develop fully autonomous driving capabilities for cars by 2025 under the project name Titan. Apple has developed its own chip and is aiming to soon have a car on the roads for testing. However, delivering self-driving cars is a difficult endeavor with Uber Technologies having sold its unit and Waymo (Google’s unit) has been struck by fatigue and key people leaving the project. Tesla is also still struggling to deliver self-driving cars. What are we watching next? Who will US President Biden nominate to head the Fed next February? Powell is still seen as more likely to get the nod that Brainard by roughly two to one, and this Fed Chair nomination issue is hanging over the markets, as the current Fed chair term ends in early February and from comments made earlier this week, an announcement could be made any day now. One uncertainty that would come with a Brainard nomination is the potential difficulty of having her nomination approved by the Senate. The nomination news could generate significant short-term volatility on the choice of the nominally more dovish Lael Brainard over current Fed Chair Powell, though we see little difference in the medium-longer term implications for monetary policy, and the Fed is likely to get a prominent new regulatory role either way (under Brainard or someone else if she is nominated to replace Powell). Vote on $1.7 trillion US fiscal bill today in the House of Representatives after the Congressional Budget office said the bill, which focuses on social spending and climate initiatives, would add some $367 billion to the US Federal deficit (around 1.5% of current US nominal GDP) over the next 10 years. Earnings Watch – there are no important earnings today and this earnings week has been good in the US and Europe, while a bit more mixed among Chinese companies. The list below shows earnings releases next week. Monday: Sino Pharmaceutical, Prosus, Zoom Video, Agilent TechnologiesTuesday: Xiaomi, Kuaishou Technology, Compass Group, Medtronic, Analog Devices, Autodesk, VMWare, Dell Technologies, XPeng, HP, Best Buy, Dollar TreeWednesday: DeereThursday: AdevintaFriday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – ECB President Lagarde to speak1200 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak1330 – Canada Sep. Retail Sales1715 – US Fed Vice Chair Clarida to speak on global monetary policy coordination Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Market Quick Take - November 22, 2021

Market Quick Take - November 22, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 22.11.2021 10:04
Summary:  Equity markets closed last week somewhat mixed, but the Asian session was mostly strong on indications that the Chinese PBOC is shifting its attitude on monetary policy toward easing. Elsewhere, the difficult wait for the Fed Chair nomination news continues this week ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Crude oil bounced after finding support overnight, but the risk of SPR release and Covid demand worries still linger. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - a new week following a new all-time high in US equities on the close on Friday, which is starting with Nasdaq 100 futures opening up higher trading around the 16,610 level in early European trading. Last week showed that investors and traders are utilizing the Covid-19 lockdown playbook selling off physical companies while buying online companies that are better equipped to navigate new lockdowns in Europe. With the US 10-year yield remaining in a range around the 1.55% there is nothing from preventing equities from extending recent gains. EURUSD and EURGBP – new Covid restrictions across Europe, which has become the center of the latest Covid wave, have crimped sentiment for the euro, as has the still very elevated power and natural gas prices. EURUSD has traded back down toward the lows of the cycle near 1.1265 overnight, with the next psychological magnet lower likely the 1.1000 area as long as the big 1.1500 break level continues to provide resistance. In EURGBP, last week saw the break of the prior major pivot low near 0.8400, with the next objective the post-Brexit vote low near 0.8275. USDJPY – threatened support on Friday on a spike lower in long US treasury, but a reversal of much of that action by this morning in late Asian trading is likewise seeing USDJPY trying to recover back into the higher range, with a focus on the recent top just short of 115.00. We likely need for long US treasury yields to sustain a move higher to support a major foray above this huge 114.5-115.00 chart area, which has topped the market action since early 2017. Meanwhile, if risk sentiment worsens further in EM and darkens the outlook for JPY carry trades there, while US treasuries remains rangebound or head lower, the JPY could squeeze higher as the speculative interest is tilted heavily short. Gold (XAUUSD) extended Friday’s drop below $1850 overnight, before bouncing ahead of key support in the $1830-35 area. The risk of a quicker withdrawal of Fed stimulus supporting real yields and the dollar has for now reduced gold's ability to build on the technical breakout. However, the price softness on Friday helped attract ETF buying with Bloomberg reporting a 10 tons increase, the biggest one-day jump since January 15. Gold’s biggest short-term threat remains the tripling of futures long held by funds during the past seven weeks to a 14-month. Most of that buying being technical driven with the risk of long liquidation now looming on a break below the mentioned support level.   Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSDEC21) opened softer in Asia after Friday’s big drop but has so far managed to find support at $77.85, the previous top from July. The market focus has during the past few weeks shifted from the current tight supply to the risk of a coordinated reserve release, a renewed Covid-driven slowdown in demand and recent oil market reports from the EIA and IEA pointing to a balanced market in early 2022. Speculators who for the last six weeks have been net sellers of crude oil futures cut their combined WTI and Brent long to a three-month low in the week to November 16. Focus on SPR and Covid risks this week US treasuries (SHY, IEF, TLT). Government bond yields worldwide dropped as new lockdown measures were imposed in Austria on Friday. Ten-year yields tumbled to 1.55%, and they are likely to continue to trade range-bound as the debt ceiling issue will continue to compress long-term yields as volatility peaks in money markets. Investors will focus on this week’s PCE index, FOMC minutes and any news regarding a change of leadership of the Federal Reserve. If Brainard is appointed as Fed chair, the market will expect low rates for longer, thus inflation expectations will advance putting upward pressure on yields. Thus, it is unavoidable to continue to see the 5s30s continue to flatten. German Bunds (IS0L). We expect European sovereigns, in general, to continue to benefit from news related to a surge of Covid cases and lack of collateral as the year ends. Yet, the perception of inflation is changing among ECB members with Isabel Schnabel last week saying that the central bank will need to be ready to act if inflation proves more durable. Therefore, as we enter in the new year, and collateral shortages will be eased, we anticipate spreads to resume their widening. What is going on? Fed Vice Chair Clarida suggests faster Fed taper - in comments on Friday, suggesting that the December FOMC meeting could speed the pace at which the Fed will reduce its asset purchases. “I’ll be looking closely at the data that we get between now and the December meeting...It may well be appropriate at that meeting to have a discussion about increasing the pace at which we are reducing our asset purchases.” China’s central bank signals that it may ease policy. In a monetary policy report from Friday, the PBOC dropped language from prior reports, including phrase suggesting that the bank will maintain “normal monetary policy” and a promise not to “flood the economy with stimulus”. This comes in the wake of considerable disruption in the property sector as the government cracks down on an overleveraged property sector. Asian equities were mostly higher on the news, especially in Korea, although the Hang Seng index was slightly in the red as of this writing. Ericsson to acquire cloud provider Vonage in $6.2bn deal. This pushes the Swedish telecommunication company into the cloud communication industry seeking to add more growth to the overall business. Vonage has delivered 11% revenue growth in the past 12 months hitting $1.4bn with an operating margin of 10.4%. Global proceeds from IPOs hit $600bn in record year. This is the biggest amount since 2007 and almost 200% above the level in 2019 highlighting the excessive risk sentiment in equities. More confusing signals from Bank of England. Governor Bailey said in an interview for the Sunday Times that risks to the country are “two-sided” at the moment as growth slows and inflation rises, and that the cause of inflation problems is supply side constraints and that “monetary policy isn’t going to solve those directly.” Similarly, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Friday that the Bank of England said that the weight of evidence was shifting in favour of rate hikes but that he has not yet made a decision, encouraging observers to focus on the longer term rather than meeting-to-meeting decision. US shared intelligence with allies suggesting potential for Russia to invade Ukraine - according to Bloomberg sources. The intelligence noted up to 100,000 soldiers could be deployed in such a scenario, and that some half of that number are already in position.  Russian president Vladimir Putin denied Russia intends to invade, but seemed to pat himself on the back for “having gotten the attention of the US and is allies, which he accused of failing to take Russia’s ‘red lines’ over Ukraine seriously”, as the article puts it. What are we watching next? Who will US President Biden nominate to head the Fed next February? Powell is still seen as more likely to get the nod that Brainard by roughly two to one, and this Fed Chair nomination issue is hanging over the markets, as the current Fed chair term ends in early February and from comments made last week by President Biden, an announcement could come any day. One uncertainty that would come with a Brainard nomination is the potential difficulty of having her nomination approved by the Senate. The nomination news could generate significant short-term volatility on the choice of the nominally more dovish Lael Brainard over current Fed Chair Powell, though we see little difference in the medium-longer term implications for monetary policy, and the Fed is likely to get a prominent new regulatory role either way (under Brainard or someone else if she is nominated to replace Powell). Will Germany announce a Covid lockdown? - Friday saw some volatility on Austria’s announcement of a full Covid lockdown, with Germany’s health minister saying that a similar move in Germany could not be ruled out. Later that day, that was contradicted by comments from another minister. Meanwhile, resistance against Covid restrictions has turned violent in Netherlands. Earnings Watch – the number of important earnings is falling rapidly, but this week Tuesday is the most important day with key earnings from Xiaomi, XPeng and Kuaishou, both important Chinese technology companies. Also on Tuesday, US companies such as Medtronic, Autodesk and Dell Technologies are worth watching. Monday: Sino Pharmaceutical, Prosus, Zoom Video, Agilent Technologies Tuesday: Xiaomi, Kuaishou Technology, Compass Group, Medtronic, Analog Devices, Autodesk, VMWare, Dell Technologies, XPeng, HP, Best Buy, Dollar Tree Wednesday: Deere, Thursday: Adevinta Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 - Switzerland SNB weekly sight deposit data1330 – US Chicago Fed Oct. National Activity Index1500 – US Oct. Existing Home Sales1730 – ECB's Guindos to speak2145 – New Zealand Q3 Retail Sales2200 – Australia Nov. Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI0105 – Australia RBA’s Kohler to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - November 24, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 24.11.2021 09:53
Macro 2021-11-24 08:40 6 minutes to read Summary:  US equity markets bounced back from an extension of the sell-off from the highs of Monday, perhaps in part as a firm US 7-year treasury auction saw yields settling back lower, just after that particular benchmark had notched a new high yield for the cycle. Today sees a flurry of US data and the FOMC Minutes all crammed into the last day before the long Thanksgiving weekend in the US, where markets are closed tomorrow and only open for short session on Friday. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - Nasdaq 100 recovered from steep losses late in yesterday’s session which has extended this morning on a positive session in Asia driven by improved sentiment in Chinese equities on good earnings releases. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading 1.4% higher than yesterday’s lows. The key thing to monitor is still the US 10-year yield and the USD for clues of where US equities are going. If Nasdaq 100 futures can extend their momentum today the 16,443 level is the natural gravitational point in this market sitting at the 50% retracement level over the past three trading sessions. USDJPY – The  USDJPY outlook is predominantly a question of “will it or won’t it sustain a break above 115.00?” And the answer to that question is likely coincident with whether long US treasury yields will rise above the 1.75% highs established earlier this year. After a strong 7-year US treasury auction yesterday, US longer yields dipped from session highs, drawing out the suspense on USDJPY direction here. AUDNZD – after the RBNZ meeting proved far less hawkish than the market has priced, it feels as if it will be difficult for the momentum in higher RBNZ rate expectations to return as the bank likely waxed a bit cautious overnight (more below) to give itself more time to assess how quickly the tightening in the bag and a few more planned hikes already priced in are affecting the NZ economy. In Australia, meanwhile, the economy is emerging from lockdowns and rate expectations could close the gap, with an additional possible source of support from China, where stimulus may be on the way, and where the anticipation of a rise in steel output has sharply boosted iron ore prices (Australia’s largest export). AUDNZD may have bottomed out now and we watch for whether this sharply rally off the bottom could have legs for at least 1.0600 as AU vs. NZ yield spreads mean revert. Gold (XAUUSD) trades higher after finding support ahead of $1781. The slump this week below  $1835 area was triggered by rising Treasury yields following the renomination of Jerome Powell as Fed chair. The oversized downside reaction, however, was caused by long liquidation from hedge funds who had been rushing into gold before and after the recent CPI shock. Gold’s short-term ability to bounce will mostly depend on whether the washout has triggered a big enough reduction of recently established and now loss-making positions. A sharp drop in open interest in COMEX gold futures and two days with double the normal trading volume could indicate most of the adjustments have now been executed. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) jumped the most in two weeks yesterday after a US initiated release of strategic reserves underwhelmed in its size and details. Most of the oil being offered to refineries will have to be returned at a later date while international contributions were smaller than expected. Refineries are already processing crude near the seasonal pace so the market doubt how much extra oil they may need. Also, and more important, the OPEC+ alliance called the move unjustified given current conditions and as a result they may opt to reduce future production hikes, currently running near 12 million barrels per month. Ahead of today’s EIA stock report, the API last night reported a 2.3 million barrel increase with stockpiles at Cushing also rising US treasuries (SHY, IEF, TLT). At the beginning of the day, the yield curve bear flattened with 7-year yields breaking above 1.55% before the 7-year auction. It led many to believe that it could be a catastrophic bond sale as demand for Monday’s 2-year and 5-year Treasuries was weak. Surprisingly, bidding metrics were strong with the bid-to-cover ratio being the highest since September 2020, and the yield stopping through by 1bps at 1.588%. Following the auction, the yield curve steepened slightly amid lower breakeven rates and less aggressive rate hikes for 2022. We expect the bond market to continue to be volatile as the market adjusts expectations for rate hikes next year. Yet, the long part of the yield curve is likely to remain in check until a resolution to the debt ceiling is not found. Todays’ Personal Consumption Expenditures might revive inflation fears reversing gains in the Asia trading session. Italian BTPS (BTP10). Italian government bonds sold off for the second day in a row as German and French PMI beat expectations, hinting at the inevitable end of the PEPP program. To weaken sentiment in BTPS was also news that President Mattarella is going to vacate his position in January leaving a political vacuum. Parties are pushing Draghi to get that position to get rid of him and go to early elections. If that were to happen, the stability that Italian BTPS enjoyed since Draghi is leading the government will vanish provoking a fast widening of the BTPS-Bund spread. What is going on? EU gas prices surged back above $30/MMBtu (€90/GWh) yesterday in response to rising winter demand, low power production from wind farms and increased competition from Asia which is ramping up its LNG imports. The US imposing additional sanctions aimed at Russia’s Nord Strem 2 pipeline also received some unwelcome attention. Sky-high day ahead prices for power adding to the pain with some countries approaching record highs. Power plants are burning more coal which is cheaper and more profitable and it has helped drive the emissions future (CFIZ1) to a new all-time high this week above €70 per tons. RBNZ hikes only 25 basis points, statement somewhat cautious. The majority of market participants were looking for a 25-basis point hike from the RNBZ overnight, but enough were looking for 50 bps that the 0.25% hike to take the official cash rate to 0.75%  rate triggered a sell-off in the kiwi. But it was the guidance that was a bit more of a surprise than the rate move, as the RBNZ noted that, while further rate rises would be needed, “the Committee expressed uncertainty about the resilience of consumer spending and business investment....(and) also noted that increases in interest rates to households and businesses had already tightened monetary conditions.” The 2-year NZGB yield dropped 14 basis points overnight to 1.94% as the market lowered rate hike expectations out the curve. Turkish lira descent accelerates – yesterday was a wild day for the TRY, which fell almost 20% in a single day yesterday before stabilizing slightly, on fresh rhetoric from Turkish president Erdogan, who complimented the recent Turkish Central Bank decision to cut rates again and who continues to use belligerent rhetoric against the standard EM playbook for dealing with a devaluing currency (vicious belt tightening via rate hikes, etc.). Chinese equities are rebounding on good earnings releases. Yesterday’s earnings releases from Xiaomi, Kuaishou Technology, and XPeng  have lifted sentiment in Chinese equities. Kuaishou was a positive surprise given the technology crackdown in China and XPeng overtook NIO in Q3 on EV deliveries showing that the company can ramp up production. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos says inflation drivers are becoming more structural. In a speech yesterday in Madrid, the central banker said that “the ECB is continuously pointing out that the inflation rebound is of a transitory nature....However, we have also seen how in recent months these supply factors are becoming more structural, more permanent.” Euribor futures far out into 2024 and 2025 are several ticks lower from recent highs, but also up a few ticks from yesterday’s lows, as the market is only pricing for the ECB to move back to 0% rates by around the beginning of 2025. What are we watching next? Busy US Economic Calendar ahead of long holiday weekend - the majority of US office workers take a long weekend that includes Thanksgiving Day tomorrow and the Friday as well, with a lot of the data that normally would have been spread out over the rest of the week all piled up into a heap in early US hours today. The key number to watch today is the October PCE Inflation numbers, where the headline “PCE Deflator” and “PCE Core Deflator” are expected to show year-on-year readings of 5.1%/4.1% respectively vs. 4.4%/3.6% in September, which would mean the hottest pace of inflation since the early 1990’s. Much later in the day we have the FOMC minutes from the November 3 meeting, which should be interesting for whether the debate on whether the Fed needs to tighten policy more quickly is becoming more heated. Earnings Watch – the rest of the week in terms of earnings will be quite light with today’s focus on Deere which sells equipment to the agricultural sector and thus is a good indicator on this sector. Wednesday: Deere Thursday: Adevinta Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Germany Nov. IFO Survey 1330 – US Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims 1330 – US Oct. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1330 – US Q3 GDP Revision 1330 – US Oct. Durable Goods Orders 1430 – UK BoE’s Tenreyro to speak 1500 – US Oct. PCE Inflation 1500 – US Final University of Michigan Sentiment Survey 1500 – US Oct. New Home Sales 1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Product Inventory Report 1700 – EIA’s Natural Gas Storage Change 1900 – US FOMC Meeting Minutes   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - November 26, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 26.11.2021 09:25
Macro 2021-11-26 08:30 6 minutes to read Summary:  Fears linked to a new and different covid variant discovered in South Africa helped send a wave of caution over global markets overnight. Stocks in Asia and the US slumped, Treasuries rallied while the dollar traded near a 16-month high. Crude oil shed 3% and gold rose with the detection of the new covid strain. US markets will have a shortened session today as many are still away for the holiday, aggravating liquidity concerns ahead of the weekend. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equity futures shot lower from the moment they opened overnight on the new Covid variant news, a jolting development after Wednesday’s pre-Thanksgiving holiday closed seemed to show risk sentiment trying to make a stand after some early last week, and perhaps in part in anticipation of the traditionally strong seasonal run into the winter holidays in late December. Given poor liquidity today in the US as many are away from their desks for a long holiday weekend and the market is only for a half session, any significant flows by traders looking to reduce risk could mean significant volatility. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - the main European equity futures contract is down 3.2% on the news of a new more infectious Covid strain as it increases the probability of new lockdowns to safeguard hospitals. We observe the pandemic playbook in equities with technology and online companies falling less than physical companies such as miners, energy, and retailers. Stoxx 50 futures have broken below the 50% retracement level measured on the recent runup since early October. The next critical support levels are at 4,125 and 4,058. As this is a Friday, the liquidity situation could be significantly worsened and exacerbate intraday moves. USDJPY and JPY crosses – The huge shift in market mood overnight saw risk aversion sweeping across global markets driving US treasuries back higher and US yields lower, and triggering a huge jolt of JPY buying, as the JPY trading up against all of its G10 peers. USDJPY is well back below the 115.00 level that was broken overnight and the classic “risk proxy” AUDJPY was blasted for steep losses, with GPJPY also in particularly steep retreat. Another pair worth watching is EURJPY, where there is a well-defined range low near 128.00. Further risk aversion and falling yields could support a significant extension of the JPY rally if we are seeing a sustained change of mood here. Gold (XAUUSD) traded higher overnight as renewed Covid fears spread to financial markets with US Treasuries trading sharply higher, thereby reducing the threat that earlier in the week helped send gold crashing below $1835. A combination of high inflation and the economic risks associated with the new virus strain could provide renewed demand following the recent washout. US ten-year real yields slumped to –1.09% while the nominal yield dropped to 1.54% just days after threatening to break above 1.7%. From a technical perspective, a break above $1816 would signal renewed strength and a possible fresh challenge towards the $1830-35 resistance area. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) slumped on renewed Covid concerns ahead of next week’s OPEC+ meeting. The market got caught up in a wave of caution overnight with Brent falling 3% as the new and fast mutating virus variant drives worries about renewed restrictions on mobility at the time when the existing delta is already triggering renewed lockdowns in Europe. Next week’s OPEC+ decision on production levels for January has suddenly been made extra hard with the risk of weaker Covid-related demand coming on top of the SPR release announcement earlier this week. US treasuries (SHY, IEF, TLT). A new Covid wave is leading investors to fly to safety provoking yields to drop roughly 10bps across the whole US yield curve. However, we expect the bond rally to be short-lived for several reasons. First, the market has learnt through earlier new strains that Covid is temporary. Secondly, a renewal of lockdown measures would make supply chain bottlenecks worse, introducing even more inflationary pressures to the economy. Therefore, it’s necessary for central banks to stop stimulating demand, keeping intact the recent Fed’s hawkish tilt. We expect more aggressive monetary policies beginning with an acceleration of the pace of tapering in December, followed by earlier interest rate hikes expectations. It will be inevitable for yields to resume their rise and the yield curve to bear flatten. Today investors will find poor liquidity in markets due to the Thanksgiving holiday, cautious will be needed. German Bunds (IS0L). The new German government unveiled a governing coalition deal. Among the extensive list of policies, bond investors should focus on the accommodative fiscal policies for 2022 and 2023, the beginning of a “decade of investment” and the rejection of a new lockdown amid a record rise of Covid cases. More spending translates to higher Bund yields. However, yields remain muted as Europe becomes the new epicenter of Covid-19 infections. With news of the new South Africa strain, yields might fall until we’ll have a full picture of what is happening. Italian BTPS (BTP10). Italian government bonds remained in check as governments in Europe move forward to impose new restrictions due to a rise Covid-19 infections. Yet, investors should remain vigilant as the PEPP program will still end in March. To weaken sentiment in BTP’s further is also the news that President Mattarella is going to vacate his position in January leaving a political vacuum. Parties are pushing Draghi to il Quirinale to get rid of him and go to early elections. If that were to happen, the stability that Italian BTPS enjoyed since Draghi entered in Italian politics will vanish provoking a fast widening of the BTPS-Bund spread. What is going on? What we know about the new Covid virus variant that’s hurting markets. The new Covid virus variant, with a scientific description of B.1.1.529 but with no Greek letter yet designated, has been identified in South Africa and observers fear that its significant mutations could mean that current vaccines may not prove effective, leading to new strains on healthcare systems and complicating efforts to reopen economies and borders. Researchers have yet to determine whether it is more transmissible or more lethal than already known variants. As of Thursday, 90% of 100 positive PCR tests in a specific area of South Africa were of the new variant. The South Korean central bank raised its policy rate 25 bps to 1.00% as expected and signaled further rate hikes to come, saying that rates are still accommodative after now having hiked twice for this cycle. The Swedish Riksbank kept rates at 0%, sees lift-off by the end of 2024. This is the first time the bank has indicated a positive rate potential in their policy forecast horizon. SEK tried to rally yesterday, but is stumbling badly overnight, with EURSEK is soaring this morning in correlation with the decline in global market sentiment, as the Swedish krona is very sensitive to the EU economic outlook and a weaker euro and to risk sentiment more generally. The 2021 EURSEK high near 10.33 is suddenly coming into view after the pair traded south of 10.00 less than two weeks ago. Australia Retail Sales leap 4.9% month-on-month versus 2.2% expected, as lockdowns ended across the country, but with the market is not in the right place to celebrate the news as new Covid strain fears elsewhere dominate the news flow and the Aussie traditionally trades weaker when risk sentiment tanks as it has done since last night. What are we watching next? This is a remarkable and violent shift in mood at an awkward time for markets - as the most liquid global market, the US, was out yesterday for a holiday and the Friday after Thanksgiving (today) usually sees the vast majority of traders and investors still on holiday, with the US equity market only open for a half session. Ahead of the weekend and with the new virus news afoot, markets may have a hard time absorbing new trading flows and the risk of gap-like moves rises. Black Friday consumer spending – retail sales during Black Friday today and over the weekend is often a good barometer on consumer confidence and causes big moves in retailers the following week as their weekend sales are announced. Earnings Watch – the new Covid-19 virus strain observed in South Africa is obviously overshadowing the two important earnings releases from Meituan and Pinduoduo, but they are important for investors investing in Chinese technology companies. Despite Chinese companies at the margin have fared better than expected on earnings in Q3, estimates for Q4 and beyond are still coming down. Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – ECB President Lagarde to speak0830 – Sweden Oct. Retail Sales1300 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak1330 – ECB Chief Economist Lane to speak   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - November 25, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.11.2021 09:49
Macro 2021-11-25 08:45 6 minutes to read Summary:  Asian stocks and US equity futures traded higher overnight as traders weighed Chinese efforts to support its economy, and after solid US economic data combined with persistent price pressures added to market concerns, the Fed may speed up its removal of policy support to curb inflation. In Treasuries, shorter maturity advanced while longer dated retreated after failing to break key resistance. The dollar trades close to a 16-month high while the crude oil market held steady with focus on next week's OPEC+ meeting. US cash markets are closed for Thanksgiving today with limited price activity expected. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - yesterday’s less bad than feared PCE inflation for October reversed momentum in US interest rates and pulled equities and especially US technology stocks higher. With the recent Powell and Brainard statements it is clear, that the Fed will put more weight on inflation than employment as we go into 2022, and thus the pressure will remain on interest rates and high duration assets such as technology stocks. Nasdaq 100 futures sit at 16,414 in early European trading and will have to overcome the 50% retracement level at 16,435 in order to continue the upward momentum. USDJPY – while US equities and US interest rates turned around yesterday, the reaction in USDJPY was less muted ending the sessions higher underscoring the strong USD momentum. The outlook is still predominantly a question of “will it or won’t it sustain a break above 115.00” which depends on whether the US 10-year yield can push into new highs for the year above the 1.75% level. Gold (XAUUSD) trades higher after once again managing to find support in the $1780 area. Another strong read on US inflation, this time the Fed’s favored PCE Deflator, helped flatten the US yield curve with the yield on short dated maturities rising while US ten-year notes ended lower after failing to break key resistance in the 1.7% area. The big price slump below $1830 this week was primarily caused by long liquidation from funds who had been rushing into gold before and after the recent CPI shock. Gold’s short-term ability to bounce will mostly depend on whether the washout has triggered a big enough reduction of recently established and now loss-making positions. From a technical perspective, a break above $1816 is the minimum requirement for calm to emerge. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) has settled into a nervous wait-and-see mode with focus on the Dec 2 OPEC+ meeting after its advisory board said the US-led coordinated release of reserves may drive a crude oil surplus early next year. This comes after the alliance called the move unjustified given current conditions and as a result, they may opt to reduce future production hikes when they meet on Tuesday. Yesterday’s EIA report was price supportive with crude oil stocks only seeing a small 1 million barrels increase despite a sharp drop in exports and another injection from strategic reserves. US treasuries (SHY, IEF, TLT). Yesterday, we received a thorough list of data, which might have just given more reasons to the Fed to accelerate the pace of tapering during the next FOMC meeting. The PCE index rose to 5%, the highest since 1981 while inflation expectations for the next 5 years stuck to 3%. Jobless claims fell to the lowest since 1969, indicating that jobs are recovering fast. Lastly, the FOMC minutes showed that members are beginning to worry about less transitory inflation, provoking rate hikes expectations to accelerate by the end of the day. However, due to the looming holiday, US Treasuries remained muted. 5-year UST futures this morning are down during the Asian session despite low liquidity, indicating that sentiment is bearish. Friday’s trading session will also be affected by low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving schedule. We will have a better picture on Monday, but it looks likely yields will continue their rise and the yield curve flattening. German Bunds (IS0L). The new German government unveiled a governing coalition deal. Among the extensive list of policies, bond investors should focus on an accommodative fiscal policy for 2022 and 2023, the beginning of a “decade of investment” and the rejection of a new lockdown amid a record rise of Covid cases. More spending translates to higher Bund yields. However, yields remained mutes as Europe becomes the new epicenter of Covid-19 infections. Yet, Bunds remain vulnerable, and rates might move higher as US Treasury yields resume their rise. Italian BTPS (BTP10). Italian government bonds remained in check as governments in Europe move forward to impose new restrictions due to a rise Covid-19 infections. Yet, investors should remain vigilant as the PEPP program will still end in March. To weaken sentiment in BTPS further is also the news that President Mattarella is going to vacate his position in January leaving a political vacuum. Parties are pushing Draghi to il Quirinale to get rid of him and go to early elections. If that were to happen, the stability that Italian BTPS enjoyed since Draghi entered in Italian politics will vanish provoking a fast widening of the BTPS-Bund spread. What is going on? Europe’s Covid problem is deteriorating, and with the region now accounting for almost 60% of global Covid deaths, the risk of more lockdowns and restrictions continue to rise. German business climate in November slumped slightly more than expected to its lowest in five months as local companies grapple with supply bottlenecks and the mentioned fourth wave of COVID-19. Fed officials at their last meeting were open to removing policy support at a faster pace to rein in inflation. Since then, data have shown accelerating price pressure, not least after the Fed’s favorite gauge, the PCE Deflator rose 5% YoY, the fastest pace in three decades. "Various participants" noted the FOMC should be ready to tweak the tapering pace and raise the target range for the Fed funds rate sooner than currently expected if inflation continues to run higher, minutes showed. By now, the market has priced in a total of three rate hikes for 2022. EU gas trades higher again today, reaching $30.7/MMBtu (€93.5/GWh) today in response to rising winter demand, low power production from wind farms and increased competition from Asia which is ramping up its LNG imports. Sky-high day ahead prices for power adding to the pain with some countries approaching record highs. Power plants are burning more coal which is cheaper and more profitable and it has helped drive the emissions future (CFIZ1) to a new all-time high this week above €72.5 per tons. What are we watching next? The USD and US interest rates will make or break equities - it is clear that interest rate sensitivity is picking up as a theme as US interest rates are trading just below the two recent local highs in March and October. The USD is strong which puts pressure on emerging markets and any indications that the USD is losing momentum will improve flows into emerging market equities and bonds. Black Friday consumer spending – retail sales during Black Friday tomorrow and over the weekend is often a good barometer on consumer confidence and causes big moves in retailers the following week as their weekend sales are announced. Earnings Watch – with Thanksgiving today in the US market activity will be significantly lower than normal. Only earnings release today is from Norwegian Adevinta, which has already reported with operating income in Q3 coming in a bit lower than consensus. Thursday: Adevinta Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0700 – German Q3 GDP 0700 – German GfK Consumer Confidence   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Focusing On US CPI, Fed, Commodities and Bank Of Japan - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - November 29, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 29.11.2021 09:48
Macro 2021-11-29 08:40 6 minutes to read Summary:  The market is trying to brush off fears that the new omicron covid variant may significantly disrupt the global economy, with only partial success as cases of the variant have been discovered in multiple countries outside of the original outbreak area. Equities and crude oil markets have erased a portion of the enormous losses from Friday, but the Japanese yen strength actually accelerated at times overnight as Japan will move to halt entry by all foreign visitors. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equity futures with especially Nasdaq 100 futures are charging ahead trading above the 50% retracement level based on Friday’s price action. The new Covid variant has for now made the market put monetary tightening on pause for a while until we get a better picture of the new variant and its impact. This is supporting US technology stocks as it puts less upward pressure on interest rates. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - European equities were down the most on Friday logically bouncing back the most in today’s session with Stoxx 50 futures trading at the 50% retracement level of Friday’s selloff at the 4,151 level. The next big resistance level on the upside is 4,189. If the new Covid variant ends up restricting mobility and travelling we expect Europe and emerging markets to perform worse than US equities. USDJPY and JPY crosses – The Friday meltdown in risk sentiment saw the Japanese yen rallying strongly, with a classic risk proxy pairing like the AUDJPY suffering its worst single day draw-down since the pandemic outbreak in March of 2020. While other markets tried to put on a hopeful face at the start of the week in Asia today, it is notable that the JPY strength has actually accelerated, perhaps in part as Japan is taking the remarkable step of banning all inbound travel from foreign destinations starting tomorrow. In USDJPY, we watch the important pivot low of 112.73, a fall through which could set up a challenge of the 111.50-111.00 zone that supports the trend from the lows of early 2021. Speculative positioning is quite short the JPY, so there is considerable potential fuel for an extension of this JPY rally. EURJPY has broken down through the important 128.00 area support overnight. EURUSD – the squeeze higher in EURUSD on Friday appears linked with the market moving quickly to remove expectations of Fed rate hikes in the wake of the news of the new omicron covid variant, which improves the equation for the euro from a “yield spread” perspective. For EURUSD to trade to new cycle lows from here, we would likely either need to see a return to new highs for the cycle in Fed expectations or some new meltdown in sentiment that would reward the US dollar more as a safe haven. Resistance is perhaps 1.1350-1.1385. Gold (XAUUSD) failed to attract a strong safe haven bid on Friday to push it through resistance at $1816. This despite multiple tailwinds emerging from the omicron-driven carnage after bond yields slumped while the dollar and the VIX jumped. Instead, a slump across industrial metals spread to silver and platinum, thereby curtailing golds potential upside. Gold trades lower today with other markets making a tentative recovery in the belief Friday’s selloff was overdone. However, until we have more details about the virus (see below) the markets will remain nervous as can be seen in fresh yen strength this Monday (see above). Four failed attempts to break below $1781, a key Fibonacci level, may also offer returning bulls some comfort. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) suffered one of its largest one-day crashes on Black Friday in response to worries the new omicron virus variant could drive renewed demand weakness caused by widespread lockdowns and travel bans. Equally importantly was probably the very bad timing with the news hitting the markets on a low liquidity day after the Thanksgiving holiday. The market traded higher in Asia as buyers concluded the selloff was overdone while also speculating OPEC+ may act to support prices when they meet on Thursday. The group may decide to postpone the January production increase or if necessary, temporary cut production into a period that was already expected to see the return of a balanced market. Ahead of the meeting and until we know more about the new strain and its associated risks, the market will remain very volatile. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). The omicron strain will be in the spotlight this week as well as monetary policies expectations and the non-farm payrolls on Friday. Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow and on Wednesday will be key as the Coronavirus and CARES act will be discussed. It’s likely that rates will remain compressed across the yield curve as there continue to be uncertainties surrounding the omicron strain. Yet, we expect the Federal Reserve to stick to their hawkish agenda and accelerate the pace of tapering in December as inflation will continue to be a concern. It implies, the yield curve will continue to bear flatten, and could even invert as economic expectations dive, pinning down long-term yields. If the White House looks to add more stimulus, that would imply more bond issuance, putting further pressure in the front part of the yield curve. German Bunds (IS0L) and Italian BTPS (BTP10). This week’s focus will be the Eurozone CPI flash numbers and news concerning Covid lockdowns and restrictions. Friday’s flight to safety provoked yields to drop across the euro area, including among sovereigns with a high beta such as Italy. The reason behind it is that German Bunds are tightly correlated to US Treasuries and that the market was anticipating more accommodative monetary policies from the ECB, which have been benefitting mostly the periphery. Investors should remain cautious. Indeed, inflation remains a big focus and could drive towards less accommodative policies rather than more. What is going on? Market is grappling with what to do about the omicron covid variant. The worst impact so far is from the speed with which countries are moving to halt inbound foreign travel, with many countries stopping all flights from South Africa and other countries in the region, while Japan has taken the dramatic step of halting all inbound foreign travel from tomorrow. More hopeful indications from virologists in the virus origin area are anecdotally that this variant is not particularly virulent, although others point out that too little is known about the virus’ effects on more vulnerable patients. Weak Black Friday spending in the US, particular in-store sales. While up strongly from last year’s virus impacted activity at physical stores, US Black Friday spending in-store was down some 28% from 2019 levels and the online shopping on Friday was at $8.9 billion vs. $9.0 billion in 2019, rather disappointing totals, although some suggest that Americans have brought forward their holiday shopping this year because of widespread fears of shortages of popular products. What are we watching next? Whether market can quickly recover from fresh wave of virus concerns. The virus concerns triggered by the new variant were a jarring development, given the prior focus recently on inflation and central banks having to bring forward tightening plans to stave off inflationary risks. US stocks have been the quickest to try to put a brave face on the situation and there is some support for equities as rate hike expectations from the Fed have dropped sharply and long US treasury yields are also sharply lower, but it will take time to learn how transmissible and virulent this new omicron virus strain is, as well as how much damage will be done to growth and sentiment by new limitations on travel and other restrictions. We also have to recall that prior to this news, Europe was the epicenter of the latest wave of the delta variant and was already trading somewhat defensively. US President Biden is set to speak this evening on the new virus variant. The UN FAO will publish its monthly World Food Price Index on Thursday, and another strong read is expected, although the year-on-year increase look set to ease from 31.3%. November has been another strong month for the grains sector led by wheat due to strong demand and worries about the Australian harvest. Elsewhere Arabica coffee trades near a ten-year high on increased concerns about production in Brazil. Before Friday’s carnage across markets the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot index had reached a 5 ½-year high after rallying by 40% during the past year. Earnings Watch – earnings this week are light with the key ones to watch being Li Auto, Snowflake, Crowdstrike, Elastic, and DocuSign. Monday: Sino Biopharmaceutical, China Gas, Acciona, Li Auto Tuesday: Bank of Nova Scotia, Salesforce, Zscaler, NetApp, HP Enterprise Wednesday: Trip.com, Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada, Snowflake, Synopsys, Crowdstrike, Veeva Systems, Okta, Splunk, Elastic, Five Below Thursday: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Cooper Cos, Marvell Technology, DocuSign, Ulta Beauty, Asana, Dollar General, Kroger Friday: Bank of Montreal Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Sweden Q3 GDP 0830 – ECB's Guindos to speak 0930 – UK Oct. Mortgage Approvals 1000 – Euro Zone Nov. Confidence Surveys 1130 – ECB's Schnabel to speak 1300 – Germany Nov. Flash CPI 1330 – Canada Oct. Industrial Product Prices 1530 – US Nov. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 1715 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 2000 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 2005 – US Fed Chair Powell gives opening remarks at conference 2350 – Japan Oct. Industrial Production 0030 – Australia Oct. Building Approvals 0100 – China Nov. Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMI 0200 – Australia RBA’s Debelle to speak  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
COT: Speculative positioning ahead of Fridays omicron dump

COT: Speculative positioning ahead of Fridays omicron dump

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 30.11.2021 18:42
Commodities 2021-11-30 10:30 Summary:  Futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 23. While a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since last Tuesday, it is nevertheless interesting, not least considering the report encapsulated the market reaction to last weeks renomination of Fed chair Powell which helped send both treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher, as well as the oil market reaction to the coordinated SPR release announcement. Finally, it also gives us an idea about the level of positioning ahead of Friday's omicron related sell off Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 23. The report normally released on Friday's was delayed due to last weeks Federal holidays, and while a lot of water has flowed under the bridge, its nevertheless interesting. Not least considering the report encapsulated the market reaction to last weeks renomination of Fed chair Powell which helped send both treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher, as well as the oil market reaction to the coordinated SPR release announcement. Also it gives a good idea about how funds and speculators were positioned ahead of the sharp risk off to the new omicron virus variant. Commodities The commodity sector saw sizable shift out of energy and metals into the agriculture sector where all 13 futures contracts covered in this update saw net buying. During the week the energy sector lost 2.1% while precious metals dropped 4.3% after gold broke below key support at $1830. A 1.5% rise in copper was not enough to convince speculators who cut their net long by 20%. Most noticeable however was the strong buying seen across the agriculture sector, with strong demand and weather worries more than offsetting the headwind caused by the stronger dollar. Energy: Crude oil, both Brent and WTI, were sold ahead of the coordinated SPR release announcement last Tuesday. The combined net long dropped by 14k lots to a one-year low at 514.6k lots. The loss of price momentum during the past few months has, despite an overriding bullish sentiment in the market, been driving the reduction, and following Friday's 10% price collapse these traders have been rewarded for sticking to the signals the market was sending instead of listening to bullish price forecasts. Hedge funds are not "married" to their positions hence their better ability to respond to changes in the technical and/or fundamental outlook.Metals: Having increase bullish gold bets by 65k lots during the previous two weeks, funds were forced to make 45k lots reduction last week in response to the Powell renomination sending gold sharply lower and below support in the $1830-35 area. Speculators have been whipsawed by the price action in recent weeks and it helps to explain why they are in no mood to reenter in size despite renewed support from Covid19 angst. Silver's 6% sell off during the week helped trigger a 17% reduction in the net long to 30k lots while in copper a small price increase was not enough to stem the slide in net length. Following seven weeks of selling, the net length has dropped by 64% to 19.5k lots, a 13-week low. Months of rangebound behaviour has reduced investor focus, and until we see High Grade Copper make an attempt to break its current $4.2 to $4.5 range, the level of positioning is likely to remain muted. Agriculture:  More concerned with other drivers such as weather, strong demand and supply chain disruptions helped trigger across the board buying of all 13 futures contracts split into grains, softs and livestock. The combined long held across these contracts reached a six-month high at 1.13 million lots, representing a nominal value of $43.5 billion. Buying was broad with the top three being corn, sugar and soybeans. Elsewhere the net long in Arabica coffee reached a fresh five-year high at 58k lots and KCB wheat a four-year high at 65.6k lots. UPDATES from today's Market Quick TakeCrude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) turned sharply lower in early European trading as the mood across markets soured on renewed concerns about the omicron virus strain. This after Moderna’s head told the Financial Times that existing vaccines will be less effective at tackling omicron and it may take months before variant-specific jabs are available at scale. The news come days before the OPEC+ group of producers meet to discuss production levels for January. Brent crude oil already heading for its biggest monthly loss since March 2020 trades below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year, a sign that more weakness may lie ahead, thereby raising the prospect for OPEC+ deciding to pause or perhaps even make a temporary production cut. Gold (XAUUSD) received a muted bid overnight in response to the omicron virus comments from the head of Moderna (see oil section above). In addition, comments from Fed chair Powell helped reduced 2022 rate expectations from three to two after he said the omicron virus posed risks to both sides of the central bank’s mandate for stable prices and maximum employment. Despite this development together with softer Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, gold continues to struggle attracting a safe-haven bid. Silver (XAGUSD) looks even worse having dropped to a six-week low on weakness spilling over from industrial metals. Forex:Broad dollar buying following Fed chair Powell's renomination helped drive a 20% increase in the greenback long against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar index to $25.4 billion and near a two-year high. All the currencies tracked in this saw net selling with the biggest contributors being euro (12.6k lots), CAD (11.8k) and JPY (4.1). The net short on the latter reached 97.2k lots or the equivalent of $10.6 billion, a short of this magnitude helps explain the strength of the sell off in USDJPY since last Thursday when safe haven demand picked up as the omicron news began to spread. Despite hitting a 16-month low last week the euro short only reached 12.6k lots, a far cry from the -114k lots reached during the panic month of February last year when the pair briefly traded below €1.08. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - December 1, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 01.12.2021 09:27
Macro 2021-12-01 08:45 6 minutes to read Summary:  Even more whiplash for global markets yesterday as Fed Chair Powell has clearly set an entirely different tone ahead of his new term as Fed Chair, saying that it was time to retire the word transitory when discussing inflation and pointing to accelerating the slowing of Fed asset purchases, among other comments. This led to a sharp repricing of Fed expectations higher just after they had been taken sharply lower by the news of the omicron covid variant. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - the initial reaction to Powell’s statement about retiring “transitory” inflation was lower equities and higher interest rates, but the subsequent price action has not followed through. Nasdaq 100 futures, which are the most interest rate sensitive, are trading at the high end of the recent trading range around the 16,380 level with the obvious resistance level at 16,438. Short-term the price action way be confusing with low signal-to-noise ratio, but our view has been clear for over a year, and that is, that inflation is coming and in size not seen in many decades. This will have a negative effect on the most richly valued equities such as our bubble basket on stocks. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - one would think that Powell’s comments on inflation would lift value stocks and interest rates, and thereby creating a bigger rebound in European equities, but that is not what we are observing this morning. Stoxx 50 futures are trading around the 4,100 level with an important resistance level at 4,125; if this level can be overcome then our view is that Stoxx 50 futures could go to 4,200 and test the 200-day moving average. USDJPY and JPY crosses – whiplash for JPY cross traders yesterday, as the hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell on inflation took Fed expectations for next year sharply back higher. Longer US yields, to which USDJPY is normally more sensitive, were less impacted, somewhat muting the impact on USDJPY, but the development came at a critical time, just after USDJPY had dipped below 112.73 range support yesterday. The reversal is a tentative sign that the pair will avoid pushing lower, but we would likely need to see the entire US yield curve lifting to have support for a renewed rally focusing on the 115.00+ recent top. EURUSD - will the ECB be forced to change its tune? Christine Lagarde’s insistence that inflation is a temporary phenomenon is under severe strain, even as she has been out this week defending this viewpoint, as was the ECB’s Schnabel, who boldly claimed that the November CPI data (more below) would prove the peak of the cycle. EURUSD churned sharply yesterday from a high of 1.1383 to a low of 1.1236 on the Fed Powell comments (below) before rebounding to 1.1336. The resilience later in the day despite a sharp repricing of Fed expectations is an interesting development, but the price action would need to threaten above 1.1500 to point to a technical reversal of the recent large sell-off. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN21) trades sharply higher after hitting a three-month low on Tuesday in response to omicron related demand worries and general weak risk sentiment following Fed chair Powell’s comments on inflation. The market attention now turns to tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting where the group may decide to pause production hikes while signaling a willingness to cut production should the demand suffer from fresh initiatives to curb mobility, especially for overseas travel. As a sideshow, the EIA will release its weekly inventory report later with the API reporting a 0.7m barrels draw in crude oil stock while fuel stocks rose. Gold (XAUUSD) trades higher after once again recovering from a Powell statement. Yesterday the Fed chair confirmed his recent change in focus away from creating jobs towards increasing efforts to curb elevated inflation. Risk appetite took another setback on the news but has recovered overnight as traders weighed positive regional economic data and divided views from drugmakers over how effective existing vaccines are against omicron. Overall, gold chart looks increasingly messy with no clear signal to be found at present. A break above the 21-DMA at $1820 is needed to spark fresh momentum interest while support continues to be found below $1780. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). Powell’s testimony in front of the senate put things in perspective: inflation is not transitory, and the Federal Reserve will use its tools to stop it. These words provoked a fast bear-flattening of the yield curve where short term yields rose faster than log-term yields were dropping. We expect this trend to continue throughout winter as a new wave of covid will pin down the long part of the yield curve, but the Fed is likely to accelerate the pace of tapering. An inversion risk cannot be excluded. The 20s30s part of the yield curve is already inverted, while the 7s10s is just 7bps to get inverted. Although the 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are much wider, any flattening can pose a threat to next year’s Fed’s interest rate hike agenda. Powell and Yellen will testify again in front of the Senate today. Job numbers remain a big focus for Friday. US junk bonds (HYG, JNK). According to Bloomberg Barclays indexes, junk bonds’ OAS widened by 30bps to 330bps amid Friday’s selloff reflecting the lack of liquidity in markets. Despite negative real rates continuing to support corporate bond valuations, it’s safe to expect junk bond spreads to widen throughout the end of the year amid poor liquidity. If the volatility in rates remains sustained, the widening of spreads could accelerate, posing a threat also for stocks. German Bunds (IS0L) and Italian BTPS (BTP10). Inflation accelerated more than expected in the Eurozone during the month of November setting the yearly figure to 4.9%. Inflation figures together with the new German government adds to the catalysts of higher Bund yields. However, covid distortions are keeping yield in check. We exclude Bund yield to rise to test 0% until the new wave of covid eases. However, as soon as the worries concerning covid ease, they will resume their rise. What is going on? Fed Chair Powell confirms that Fed emphasis has shifted to inflationary risks. In testimony before a Senate committee yesterday, Fed Chair Powell waxed far more hawkish than the market anticipated on inflation concerns, saying outright that it is time to retire the word “transitory” regarding the description of inflation, that “the risk of higher inflation has increased” and that “the risk of persistent high inflation is also a major risk to getting back to such a labor market.“ (referring to the pre-pandemic labor market). Powell also pointed to the likelihood that the Fed would wind down Fed balance sheet expansion more quickly than previously anticipated: “perhaps a few months sooner”. In response, expectations for Fed rate hikes next year were jolted back higher, just after they had been jolted lower by the omicron covid variant news. Hot EU CPI numbers for November. Preliminary headline November EU CPI was out at 4.9% year-on-year, far above the 4.5% expected and the 4.1% in October and by far the highest inflation print since the launch of the euro. Core CPI rose to 2.6% year-on-year, above the 2.3% expected and the October level of 2.0%. This is also the highest level since the launch of the euro in 1999. Germany’s incoming chancellor Scholz speaks on inflation, compulsory covid vaccination. The political pressure on the ECB to act is ratcheting higher after incoming German chancellor Scholz said that action must be taken if inflation fails to drop, though he seemed now to accept the notion that inflation is linked to covid measures and the spike in energy prices. He also spoke yesterday in favor of mandatory covid shots. Salesforce shares down 6% on Q4 guidance. Investors are used to being spoiled by Salesforce with consistently beating analyst expectations, but last night the cloud application software company disappointed on Q4 guidance with revenue in line and adj EPS at $0.72-0.73 vs est. $0.82. The company also announced that Bret Taylor will become co-CEO next to founder Marc Benioff in a sign that the founder may soon step down like so many other technology founders in recent years. What are we watching next? Markets adjusting to new reality of a more hawkish Fed. In particular if the omicron variant of the covid virus proves a temporary distraction, global markets will need to adjust the major adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s focus and what that could mean for the US dollar and asset valuations ahead. Fed Chair Powell’s rhetoric yesterday likely mean a heightened reactivity to incoming data from here on out, all modulated in the very near term by headline risks in either direction on the omicron variant. The first major data points are the ISM Service index and November jobs report up on Friday. The Average Hourly Earnings could take over in importance from the payrolls change number if it shows more aggressive rises, as it seems clear that labor supply is the chief problem US companies face, as seen in record job availability and “quits” as workers leave jobs for greener pastures. ADP employment figures for November. With the US economy operating at full capacity according to estimates from CBO, continued strong job gains will add fuel to the “inflation fire”, so today’s ADP figures could more interest rates and equities. Economists are looking at 525K vs 571K in October which would be a significant two-month change for an economy that has closed the output gap, but on the other hand, the US economy is still short around 8.5mn jobs from current levels to where employment would have been if we did not have the pandemic. Earnings Watch – growth investors will have their eyes on Snowflake set to report after the market close with analysts expecting FY22 Q3 (ending 31 Oct) revenue growth of 92% y/y. Crowdstrike, being one of the fastest growing cyber security companies in the world, will also be key to watch today. Wednesday: Trip.com, Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada, Snowflake, Synopsys, Crowdstrike, Veeva Systems, Okta, Splunk, Elastic, Five Below Thursday: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Cooper Cos, Marvell Technology, DocuSign, Ulta Beauty, Asana, Dollar General, Kroger Friday: Bank of Montreal Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0730 – Switzerland Nov. CPI 0815-0900 – Euro Zone Final Nov. Manufacturing PMI 1315 – US Nov. ADP Employment Change 1330 – Canada Oct. Building Permits 1445 – US Nov. Final Markit Manufacturing PMI 1500 – US Fed Chair Powell, Treasury Secretary Yellen to testify before House panel 1500 – US Nov. ISM Manufacturing 1530 – DOE’s Weekly Crude Oil and Fuel Inventories 1900 - Fed Beige Book 0030 – Australia Oct. Trade Balance   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Breakout - 03.12.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Breakout - 03.12.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.12.2021 09:42
XAUUSD tests key support Gold treads water as markets await US jobs data release. The metal remains under pressure after it failed to maintain bids above 1780. Sellers are testing the daily support at 1760. A bearish breakout would shatter hopes of a swift rebound and send the price to last September’s low at 1725. That move could then threaten the integrity of the uptrend on a longer timeframe. 1806 is a fresh resistance and sellers could be waiting to double down at a better price. On the upside, a bullish breakout may propel the metal to 1845. EURUSD attempts bullish reversal The euro recoups losses as traders reposition ahead of today’s nonfarm payrolls. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the bearish push. The pair has found support near June 2020’s lows around 1.1190. Then successive breaks above 1.1270 and 1.1370 have prompted short interests to bail, paving the way for a potential reversal. 1.1460 next to the 30-day moving average would be the target and its breach may turn sentiment around. 1.1240 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. US 500 heads towards daily support The S&P 500 continues on its way down as investors jump ship amid the omicron scare. The latest rebound has been capped by 4650, a sign that the bears are in control of short-term price action. A combination of pessimism and lack of buying interest means that the index is stuck in a bearish spiral. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound as intraday sellers cover their positions. 4450 at the origin of a previous bullish breakout would be the next target. 4360 is a second line of defense that sits in a daily demand zone.
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - December 6, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 06.12.2021 09:31
Macro 2021-12-06 08:45 6 minutes to read Summary:  Friday saw global markets weakening again in another violent direction change from the action of the prior day. With futures for the broader US indices up this morning, the damage is somewhat contained, even if nerves are ragged. At the weekend, cryptocurrencies suffered a major setback in what looked like a run on leveraged positions that erased 20 percent or more of the market cap of many coins before a bit more than half of the plunge was erased with a subsequent bounce. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - despite the US 10-year yield pushed lower on Friday on the string of strong macro numbers, Nasdaq 100 futures are oddly weak in early European trading hours sitting around the 15,700 price level. The 100-day moving average down at 15,400 is the key price level to watch should the weakness in US technology and bubble stocks continue today. We see clear exposure overlap between cryptocurrencies and growth stocks, and with the steep plunge in Bitcoin over the weekend the risk-off might not be over. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - Stoxx 50 futures continue to be in a tight trading range sitting just above the 4,100 level this morning with little direction as traders are still digesting the US labour market report and Omicron news which at the margin seems to be improving somewhat, although expectations are still that jet fuel demand will be impacted. The weaker EUR is also short-term helping some of the exporters in Europe and generally leading to positive sentiment in early trading with European equities up 1%. USDJPY and JPY crosses – USDJPY closed the week near 112.50-75 support that was tested multiple times last week, but is once again rebounding overnight, while JPY crosses elsewhere continue to trade heavily, with the likes of AUDJPY, a traditional risk proxy, cementing the reversal back lower and GBPJPY closing the week near a significant zone of support into 148.50-149.00. Safe haven seeking in US treasuries at the long end of the curve are the key coincident indicator driving the JPY higher, with Friday’s weak risk sentiment driving fresh local lows in US long yields, with the 30-year T-bond yield at its lowest since January, below 1.75%. AUDUSD – the AUDUSD slide accelerated Friday in what looks like a capitulation ahead of tonight’s RBA meeting, where the feeling may be that there is a high bar for a surprise, given that the RBA has declared it would like to wait for the February meeting before providing guidance on its ongoing QE. Weak risk sentiment and uninspiring price action in commodities (with the partial exception of the very important iron ore price for the Aussie recently) are weighing and the price action has taken the AUDUSD pair to the pivotal 0.7000 level, an important zone of support and resistance both before and after the pandemic outbreak early last year. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN21) trades higher following its longest stretch of weekly declines since 2018. Today’s rise apart from a general positive risk sentiment in Asia has been supported by Saudi Arabia’s decision to hike their official selling prices (OSP) to Asia and US next month. Thereby signaling confidence demand will be strong enough to absorb last week's OPEC+ production increase at a time when mobility is challenged by the omicron virus. For now, both WTI and Brent continue to find resistance at their 200-day moving averages, currently at $69.50 and $72.88 respectively. Speculators cut bullish oil bets to a one-year low in the week to November 30, potentially setting the market up for a speculative-driven recovery once the technical outlook turns more friendly. US natural gas (NATGASUSJAN22) extended a dramatic collapse on Monday with the price down by 7% to a three-month low at $3.84 per MMBtu, a loss of 31% in just six trading day. Forecasts for warmer weather across the country have reduced the outlook for demand at a time where production is up 6.3% on the year. A far cry from the tight situation witnessed in Europe where the equivalent Dutch TTF one-month benchmark on Friday closed at $29.50 while in Asia the Japan Korea LNG benchmark closed at $34. Gold (XAUUSD) received a small bid on Friday following the mixed US labor market report, but overall, it continues to lack the momentum needed to challenge an area of resistance just above $1790 where both the 50- and 200-day moving averages meet. Focus on Friday’s US CPI data with the gold market struggling to respond to rising inflation as it could speed up rate hike expectations, leading to rising real yields. A full 25 basis point rate hike has now been priced in for July and the short-term direction will likely be determined by the ebb and flow of future rate hike expectations. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). This week traders’ focus is going to be on the US CPI numbers coming out on Friday, which could put pressure on the Federal Reserve to accelerate tapering as the YoY inflation is expected to rise to 6.7%. Yet, breakeven rates started to fall amid a drop in commodity prices, indicating that the market believes that inflation is near peaking despite we are just entering winter. It is likely we will continue to see the yield curve bear flattening, as the short part for the yield curve is adjusting to the expectations of more aggressive monetary policies, and long-term yields are dropping as economic growth is expected to slow down amid a decrease in monetary stimulus and the omicron variant. Last week, the 2s10s spread suffered the largest drop since 2012 falling to 74bps. The 5s30s spread dropped to 53bps. What is going on? COT on commodities in week to November 30. Hedge funds responded to heightened growth and demand concerns related to the omicron virus, and the potential faster pace of US tapering, by cutting their net long across 24 major commodity futures by 17% to a 15-month low. This the biggest one-week reduction since the first round of Covid-19 panic in February last year helped send the Bloomberg Commodity index down by 7%. The hardest hit was the energy sector with the net long in WTI and Brent crude oil falling to a one year low. Following weeks of strong buying, the agriculture sector also ended up in the firing line with broad selling being led by corn, soybeans, sugar and cocoa. Evergrande plunges 16% to new low for the cycle. The situation among Chinese real estate developers is getting more tense with Evergrande’s chairman being summoned by Guangdong government on Friday as the company is planning a larger restructuring with its offshore creditors. The PBOC has said that they are working with the local government to defuse risk from a restructuring and the regulator CSRC said over the weekend that risks into capital markets are manageable. This week another real estate developer Kaisa Group is facing a deadline on debt which will be critical for the Chinese credit market. US Friday data recap: Services sector on fire, November jobs report stronger than headlines suggest. The November ISM Services report showed the strongest reading in the history of the survey (dating back to 1997) at 69.1, suggesting a red-hot US services sector, with the Business Activity at a record 74.6, while the employment sub-index improved to 56.5, the highest since April. The November employment data, on the other hand, was somewhat confusing. Payrolls only grew 235k vs. >500k expected, but the “household survey” used to calculate the unemployment rate saw a huge growth in estimated employment, taking the overall employment rate down to 4.2% vs 4.5% expected and 4.6% in October. The Average Hourly Earnings figure rose only 0.3% month-on-month and 4.8% year-on-year, lower than the 0.4%/5.0% expected, though the Average Weekly Hours data point ticked up to 34.8 from 34.7, increasing the denominator. Twitter sees exodus of leaders. Part of Jack Dorsey stepping down as CEO at Twitter is a restructuring of the leadership group which has seen two significant technology leaders at engineering and design & research steeping down. The new CEO Agrawal is setting up his own team for Twitter which if done right could make a big positive impact on the product going forward. What are we watching next? Study of omicron variant and its virulence, new covid treatment options. Discovery of omicron cases is rising rapidly, with some anecdotal hopes that the virulence of the new variant is not high, but with significant more data needed for a clearer picture to emerge. Meanwhile, a new covid treatment pill from Merck (molnupiravir) may be available in coming weeks in some countries as it nears full approval. Next week’s earnings: The earnings season is running on fumes now few fewer important earnings left to watch. The Q3 earnings season has shown that US equities remain the strongest part of the market driven by its high growth technology sector. Today’s focus is on MongoDB which is expected to deliver 36% y/y revenue growth in Q3 (ending 31 October). Monday: Sino Pharmaceutical, Acciona Energias, MongoDB, Coupa Software, Gitlab Tuesday: SentinelOne, AutoZone, Ashtead Group Wednesday: Huali Industrial Group, GalaxyCore, Kabel Deutschland, Dollarama, Brown-Forman, UiPath, GameStop, RH, Campbell Soup Thursday: Sekisui House, Hormel Foods, Costco Wholesale, Oracle, Broadcom, Lululemon Athletica, Chewy, Vail Resorts Friday: Carl Zeiss Meditec Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Sweden Riksbank Meeting Minutes 0900 – Switzerland Weekly Sight Deposits 1130 – UK Bank of England’s Broadbent to speak 0330 – Australia RBA Cash Rate Target   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Awaiting US CPI And Speaking Of Disney and Uber. SEK And PLN As Central Banks Moves

COT: Specs exit commodities on Omicron and Fed worries

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 06.12.2021 12:33
Commodities 2021-12-06 10:50 Summary:  Futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 30. A week that encapsulated the markets very nervous reaction to the Omicron virus news as well as Jerome Powell's increased focus on combatting inflation. While global stocks and US long end yields dropped, a 7% correction in the Bloomberg commodity index helped trigger the biggest and most widespread hedge fund exodus since February 2020. Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 30. The reporting week encapsulated the markets very nervous reaction to the Omicron virus news as well as Jerome Powell confirming inflation is no longer being transitory. His comments to the Senate banking committee raised expectations for faster tapering with the first full 0.25% rate hike now priced in for July next year. The US yield curve flattened considerably with virus related safe-haven demand driving down the yield on 10-year US treasury notes by 22 basis point. Global stocks slumped with the VIX jumping 8%. Hardest hit, however was the commodity sector after the Bloomberg commodity index slumped by 7%, thereby triggering the biggest and most widespread hedge fund exodus since February 2020. Commodities Hedge funds responded to heightened growth and demand concerns related to the omicron virus, and the potential faster pace of US tapering, by cutting their net long across 24 major commodity futures by 17% to a 15-month low at 1.8 million lots. This the biggest one-week reduction since the first round of Covid-19 panic in February last year was triggered by net selling of all but three livestock contracts. Energy: Hardest hit was the energy sector where renewed demand concerns sent the prices of WTI and Brent down by more than 15%. In response to this, hedge funds accelerated their pace of futures selling with the combined net long slumping by 90k lots to a one-year low at 425k lots. The loss of momentum following the late October peak has driven an eight-week exodus out of oil contracts, culminating last week, and during this time the net length has seen a 35% or 224k lots reduction. Potentially setting the market up for a strong speculative driven recovery once the technical and fundamental outlook turns more friendly.Latest: Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN21) trades higher following its longest stretch of weekly declines since 2018. Today’s rise apart from a general positive risk sentiment in Asia has been supported by Saudi Arabia’s decision to hike their official selling prices (OSP) to Asia and US next month. Thereby signaling confidence demand will be strong enough to absorb last week's OPEC+ production increase at a time when mobility is challenged by the omicron virus. For now, both WTI and Brent continue to find resistance at their 200-day moving averages, currently at $69.50 and$72.88 respectively.  Metals: Gold was net sold for a second week as speculators continued to reduce exposure following the failed breakout attempt above $1830. With Fed chair Powell signaling a change in focus from job creation to fighting inflation, sentiment took another knock, thereby driving a 13.7k lots reduction to a four-week low at 105k lots. Industrial metals also suffered with the net long in HG copper slumping by one-third to a three-month low at 13.4k lots. Copper’s rangebound trading behavior since July has sapped hedge funds involvement with the current net length a far cry from the 92k record peak seen this time last year.Latest: Gold (XAUUSD) received a small bid on Friday following mixed US data, but overall, it continues to lack the momentum needed to challenge an area of resistance just above $1790 where both the 50- and 200-day moving averages meet. Focus on Friday’s US CPI data with the gold market struggling to respond to rising inflation as it could speed up rate hike expectations thereby putting upward pressure on real yields which are inverse correlated to gold's performance.  A full 25 basis point rate hike has now been priced in for July and the short-term direction will likely be determined by the ebb and flow of future rate hike expectations. Agriculture: The whole sector with the exception of livestock took a major hit, just one week after funds had increased bullish bets on grains and softs by the most in 15 months. Both sectors suffered setbacks of more than 5% with recent highflyers like wheat and cotton taking big hits. As mentioned, selling was broad and led by corn, soybeans, sugar and cocoa, with the latter together with palladium being the only two contracts where speculators hold an outright short position.This week the grain market will be focusing on weather developments in Australia and its potential impact on the wheat harvest, as well as the monthly World Agriculture Supply & Demand report (WASDE) from the USDA.  Forex In forex, speculators reacted to renewed virus concerns by increasing bullish dollar bets against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index to an 18-month high at $27.9 billion. Speculators were buyers of JPY (18.4k lots or $2 billion equivalent) but sellers of everything else, including euros (6.8k) and the two commodity currencies of AUD (16.9k) and CAD (10.9k). These changes resulting in the aggregate dollar long rising by $2.3 billion. In terms of extended positioning, a euro short at 23k lots was last seen in March 2020, the GBP short at 39k lots was a two-year high while the 60k lots MXN short was the highest since March 2017. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Market Quick Take - December 8, 2021

Market Quick Take - December 8, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 08.12.2021 09:06
Macro 2021-12-08 08:30 6 minutes to read Summary:  Equity markets blasted sharply higher yesterday as the market rushed to erase the concerns triggered by the omicron virus outbreak, as well, perhaps as due to the recent clear shift into a more hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve. Overnight, the Chinese renminbi strengthened to match its strongest level this year versus the US dollar as China has been sending stronger signals that it is set to stimulate growth next year. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - global equities were significantly lifted yesterday due to more positive evidence over the Covid-19 variant Omicron with Nasdaq 100 futures up 3.1% and extending the momentum today in early European trading hours. This was the biggest single day rally in US technology stocks in nine months. The key resistance level is at the 16,435 level which was the local resistance level a couple of times back in late November. USDCNH – The USDCNH rate has plunged to match the lows of the year just above 6.35 after yesterday saw the USD weakening sharply on a resurgence of risk sentiment. A break of the lows would shift the focus to the post-2015 foreign exchange regime shift lows of 2018. It is notable that China has maintained a strong renminbi policy even as the USD has strengthened recently amidst the more hawkish Fed shift and despite weak EM currencies elsewhere. The stronger price action since yesterday may be on hopes that China’s growth is set to pick up on its new apparent shift toward more stimulus and as omicron covid news has eased some of the initial uncertainties. USDCAD – the USD has turned lower on the resurgence of risk appetite after initial blows from the omicron variant news, that particularly hit oil prices hard, taking CAD and other oil-sensitive currencies down with it. The last two sessions have seen a sharp repricing of USDCAD from above 1.2800 to well below 1.2700 yesterday, ahead of today’s Bank of Canada meeting (previewed below). Whether USDCAD can continue to erase the rally off the sub-1.2300 lows will likely depend on the degree to which global markets can get back on track with pricing a stronger economic outlook and a full return of the commodities bull market, led by oil prices. The Bank of Canada will likely fulfill market expectations of hawkish guidance as it is likely warming up for a January hike. Gold (XAUUSD) trades higher for a second day but has so far found resistance at the 200-day moving average, currently at $1792.50. A general improvement in risk appetite has supported a steady but so far unimpressive recovery from last week’s slump. Focus on silver (XAGUSD) which is also trying to establish support at $22 following its recent 13% drop. Focus on omicron developments through its indirect impact on bonds and the dollar. Copper (COPPERUSMAR22) meanwhile remains stuck in a relatively tight range, but supported by Chinese trade data which showed a strong pickup last month. The metal’s loss of momentum during 2H-21 has seen the speculative long being cut to near an 18-month low. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN22) trades lower after an industry report pointed to the biggest gain in US stockpiles of oil and products since February. Overall, the market has put in a strong performance since last week's slump in the belief the omicron variant is unlikely to derail the global recovery. Flare-ups around the world resulting in temporary lockdowns is however likely to prevent the market from returning to pre-omicron levels at this point. The API last night reported a 3.1-million-barrel build in oil stocks with a 2.4 million rise at Cushing helping send the WTI prompt spread down to just $0.2/b after trading close to $2 in early November. The EIA in its Short-term energy outlook lowered its 2022 Brent average price to $70 as the agency still sees a surplus emerging next year. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). The front part of the US yield curve rose yesterday, with 3-year yields breaking above 1% ahead of the US treasury auction. The move helped to attract high demand from investors. The 3-year note sale was priced at 1%, the highest auction yield since February 2020. Following the auction, yields fell slightly with news concerning the debt ceiling contributing to this trend. The house passed a bill that makes the debt ceiling faster to raise, it will be necessary to have a simple majority vote at the senate. It decreases the chances of default in mid-December easing the compressing forces on long-term yields. However, the expectations of tighter monetary policies continue to put upward pressure on short-term yields, while long-term yields remain compressed by Covid distortions. Therefore, we continue to see scope for a bear flattening of the yield curve. Today, the focus is going to be on the 10-year US Treasury auction. What is going on? Pfizer covid vaccine offers partial protection from omicron variant, according to early study. Researchers in South Africa saw a very large reduction in the production of antibodies for patients who had received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine who were infected with the omicron variant of covid, suggesting that immune protection is far lower, but not completely lost. US President Biden warns Russian President Putin on Ukraine attack – in a video conference call lasting some two hours yesterday, Biden said that the US and its allies would support Ukraine with “strong” measures if attacked, both in the form of “defensive material” and economic measures while Putin blames NATO and its overtures to Ukraine for the tense situation. Sources indicate that the US could push to have the Nord Stream 2 pipeline shut off if Russia invades Ukraine. US House Approves Bill that would allow Senate to raise debt ceiling with a simple majority vote. This avoids the prospect of brinksmanship over the debt ceiling issue, as the Democrats can pass the vote in the Senate without Republican help. The debt ceiling issue was set to hit crunch time as early as next week and could theoretically have raised the specter of a US default. How high the Democrats could raise the debt ceiling via this process is not yet known. HelloFresh warns of lower operating profit in 2022. The fresh meal-kit company says that it sees FY22 adjusted EBITDA of €500-580mn vs est. €630mn expected by analysts driven by rising input costs. What are we watching next? Today’s Bank of Canada meeting, which is likely to tilt hawkish. With the US Fed having made a clear switch to focusing on inflation fighting, and after Bank of Canada governor Macklem penned an op-ed in the Financial Times on the need for a being ready to respond with the appropriate tools if inflation proves more sustained, the market is leaning for more hawkish Bank of Canada guidance at today’s meeting at minimum, with a minority of observers actually looking for a rate hike at today’s meeting, though most expect a “set-up” meeting for a rate hike in January. This week’s earnings: Today’s focus is UiPath which is part of the bubble stocks segment and the meme stock GameStop as both stocks are a good barometer on risk sentiment. Analysts expect UiPath to deliver 42% revenue growth in Q3 (ending 31 October). Wednesday: Huali Industrial Group, GalaxyCore, Kabel Deutschland, Dollarama, Brown-Forman, UiPath, GameStop, RH, Campbell Soup Thursday: Sekisui House, Hormel Foods, Costco Wholesale, Oracle, Broadcom, Lululemon Athletica, Chewy, Vail Resorts Friday: Carl Zeiss Meditec Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0815 – ECB President Lagarde to speak0830 – ECB’s Guindos to Speak1310 – ECB's Schnabel to speak1500 – Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision1500 – US JOLTS Job Openings survey1530 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories2130 – Brazil Selic Rate Announcement2205 – Australia RBA Governor Lowe to speak0001 – UK Nov. RICS House Price Balance0130 – China Nov. CPI / PPI   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - December 3, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 03.12.2021 09:02
Macro 2021-12-03 08:45 6 minutes to read Summary:  Risk sentiment rebounded yesterday in the US session, erasing the rather steep losses of the prior day. Sentiment in Asia is also on the mend, while oil prices recovered all of the lost ground from an intraday plunge in the wake of the OPEC+ meeting yesterday. Today, focus swings to the US November jobs report, with extra focus likely on average hourly earnings data as investors watch for signs of a wage-price spiral developing. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equities bounced back yesterday after finding a new low for the current short-term cycle lower with Nasdaq 100 futures trading around the 15,975 level this morning in European trading. Long-term US interest rates are not moving much so we expect a quiet session unless the Nonfarm Payrolls for November throws a curveball at the market. In the medium-term risk in equities will be determined by pricing of interest rates hikes next year and updated information on the new Omicron variant of Covid. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - Stoxx 50 futures are stuck in a stabilisation zone between 4,100 and 4,160 with the 100-day moving average at 4,157 which is obviously the key resistance level to watch today should we get risk-on. European equities remain pulled by two opposite forces with the first being that higher expected interest rates are positive for this value market, while the continent has the most to lose short-term from the Omicron variant. If the latter fades over the coming weeks, we expect investors to move back into European equities. USDJPY and JPY crosses – With every day that passes and no follow-through lower unfolds after the recent omicron-variant inspired tumble from the 115.00+ level, the odds of a reversal back higher grow, though as we have mentioned often in this space, this would likely require that US yields lift all along the curve, not just near the front of the curve where Fed expectations operate the most forcefully. A fresh wave of weak global risk sentiment, on the other hand, could bring another wave of JPY strength, particularly in the crosses like AUDJPY and CADJPY, some of which saw their largest single-day moves since the pandemic outbreak early last year. For USDJPY, the downside pivot is now near 112.50. USDCAD – USDCAD has rallied as the market has been adjusting to the more hawkish shift from the Fed, especially after this week’s testimony from Fed Chair Powell. As well, uncertainties and the real threat of a reduction in travel due to the new omicron variant of covid have taken down crude oil prices nearly twenty dollars from their late October peak, around the time USDCAD was bottoming out near 1.2300. Now it trades near 1.2800 and the top of the range (only intraday price spikes from August and September rose above this level) as oil has staged a significant rebound yesterday. If risk sentiment can stabilize and oil prices recover, this important 1.2800+ area resistance could hold. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN21) trades up 8% from yesterday’s low point after the OPEC+ group of producers adopted a flexible approach on supply while at the same time agreeing to maintain the current rate of production increases. The market gripped with omicron angst this past week rallied on the news due to several reasons 1) the market had already priced in a significant and not yet realised reduction in demand, and 2) it the meeting was left “in session” meaning changes can be made before January 4. 3) the move eased political tensions with large consumers, 4) some of the SPR barrels on offer may not leave storage due to lack of demand from refineries, and 5) members with spare capacity wanted to increase production, as the group has not delivered the promised increases due to some struggling to reach their quotas. The next upside level to watch being the 200-day moving average at $72.85. Gold (XAUUSD) slumped to a one-month low at $1762 yesterday, as the dollar strengthened in response to robust economic data, before finding a small bid from recovering crude oil prices. Otherwise, it has been another troubled week, the third in a row, with the yellow metal struggling to put up a defense against the Fed’s changed focus from employment to combatting inflation. In addition, the spreading of the omicron variant and its potential threat to the economic recovery has so far failed to support prices despite driving bond yields sharply lower and the VIX higher. Silver (XAGUSD) has struggled even more given its industrious link with XAUXAG ratio trading near a two-month high. Focus today being the US job report with the first major upside level of interest in gold being $1792 with support at $1760. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). Today the focus is on the nonfarm payrolls numbers, as a better-than-expected report would confirm the intention of the Federal Reserve to taper at this month's FOMC meeting. The US yield curve continued to bear-flatten yesterday as Fed’s speakers including Bostic, Daly, Quarles, and Barkin commented on the possibility of a faster tapering to open for rate hikes next year. Two-year yields rose by 8 bps, while five-year yields cheapened by 5bps. Long-term yields dropped contributing to an increased flattening of the yield curve in the 2s10s and 5s30s areas. In the meanwhile, Eurodollar futures have started to price rates cut in 2025. We expect the flattening of the yield curve to continue until Covid distortions are eased. Afterward, the long part of the yield curve will need to shift much higher adjusting to interest rate hikes expectations. US junk bonds (HYG, JNK). According to Bloomberg Barclays indexes, junk bonds’ OAS widened by 30bps to 330bps amid last Friday’s selloff reflecting the lack of liquidity in markets. Despite negative real rates continuing to support corporate bond valuations, it’s safe to expect junk bond spreads to widen throughout the end of the year amid poor liquidity. If the volatility in rates remains sustained, the widening of spreads could accelerate, posing a threat also for stocks. German Bunds (IS0L). Rate hikes expectations for the eurozone were pushed to 2023 yesterday amid a slump in tech stocks. German and Italian government bonds more than reversed Wednesday’s losses. In Europe, Covid distortions are keeping bond yields in check. However, when Covid fears ease we can expect yields in the euro area to adjust higher given the inflationary backdrop and the new German government. What is going on? Omicron covid variant cases rise, reinfection risk judged high in one study. South African officials note that the omicron variant of covid is spreading faster than the delta- or any other variant of the virus despite estimates by some that a majority of the South African population was infected with covid in prior waves. National cases were at 11.5k yesterday versus 8.6k on Wednesday and 4.4k on Tuesday. A study there of the reinfection risk suggests that it is some three times higher than prior variants. Omicron variant cases have now been discovered worldwide, including Italy, the US and South Korea. DocuSign shares plunge 30% in extended trading. The company guided Q4 revenue of $557-563mn vs est. $574mn which is a small revenue miss, but enough to spark a massive selloff in extended trading. Investors took clearly little comfort in the fact that the company is consistently improving operating margin hitting 3.1% in Q3 and expected to climb significantly in the coming quarters. China moves to delist Didi from US exchanges. US SEC set to move against Chinese listing. The Chinese ride-sharing and transportation platform company will delist in the US and move to a Hong Kong listing, perhaps in the March time frame. Meanwhile, the US SEC is set to move against a number of Chinese companies listed on US exchanges on charges that their accounting disclosures are not in compliance with US regulations. Another strong US weekly jobless claims number was out yesterday at 222k, lower than expected and near the levels during the strong labor market before the early 2020 pandemic outbreak. The prior week’s number was one of the lowest ever and was revised even lower to 194k, suggesting a very tight labor market. What are we watching next? Study of omicron variant and its virulence. Scientists will work with the provincial government of Gauteng in South Africa, which has the most measured cases of the new omicron variant, to complete a study of the new variant’s virulence as soon as next Tuesday, though results will be released to the public later. A local official there said that hospitalizations and mortality are lower than expected thus far. US November Nonfarm Payrolls Change and Average Hourly Earnings today. With the US economy operating at full capacity according to estimates from CBO, continued strong job gains will add fuel to the “inflation fire”. Wednesday's 534k increase in the November ADP private payroll number suggests that the job market growth remains healthy in the US as we await the official nonfarm payrolls numbers today (expected to show 500k+ jobs added), where strong upward revisions to prior months’ data has been a notable trend this year due to data collection issues. As well, Average Hourly earnings numbers will be closely watched for any budding signs of a wage-price spiral, as a constrained supply of labor could see companies bidding up wages and October showed a strong rise in earnings at a faster pace than at any time from the start of the survey in 2007 to the outbreak of the covid pandemic. The October Average Hourly Earnings number rose to 4.9% year-on-year, and 5.0% is expected for today’s November number. Earnings Watch – today is a quiet day on earnings with only Bank of Montreal reporting earnings. We have also put in next week’s earnings releases. Friday: Bank of Montreal Next week’s earnings: Monday: Sino Pharmaceutical, Acciona Energias, MongoDB, Coupa Software, Gitlab Tuesday: SentinelOne, AutoZone, Ashtead Group Wednesday: Huali Industrial Group, GalaxyCore, Kabel Deutschland, Dollarama, Brown-Forman, UiPath, GameStop, RH, Campbell Soup Thursday: Sekisui House, Hormel Foods, Costco Wholesale, Oracle, Broadcom, Lululemon Athletica, Chewy, Vail Resorts Friday: Carl Zeiss Meditec Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0815-0900 – Euro Zone final Nov. Services PMI 0900 – Norway Nov. Unemployment Rate 0930 – UK Nov. Final Services PMI 1100 – UK Bank of England’s Saunders to speak 1300 – ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane to speak 1330 – US Nov. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 1330 – US Nov. Average Hourly Earnings 1330 – US Nov. Unemployment Rate 1330 – Canada Nov. Net Change in Employment 1330 – Canada Nov. Unemployment Rate 1415 – US Fed’s Bullard (voter in 2022) to speak 1500 – US Nov. ISM Services 1500 – US Nov. Factory Orders   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Market Quick Take - December 9, 2021

Market Quick Take - December 9, 2021

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 09.12.2021 09:48
Macro 2021-12-09 08:40 6 minutes to read Summary:  Global markets tried to gin up additional enthusiasm yesterday on the announcement yesterday from Pfizer that three shots of vaccine may offer far more protection from the omicron variant, but the market traded largely sideways as the sharp rally from the prior day was consolidated. The US dollar is showing signs of consolidating lower ahead of arguably the last two major event risks for the year for the currency, the Friday US November CPI data and the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equities momentum waned a bit yesterday and trading flat in early European trading hours. In Nasdaq 100 futures the 16,420 is the key resistance level to watch in today’s session. While Nasdaq 100 futures are flat this morning, Bitcoin is trading 2% lower which if it continues could spill over into US technology stocks as these pockets of the market are connected in terms of risk-off. Bubble stocks were the biggest gainers yesterday and provide another opportunity for retail investors to reduce exposure in bubble stocks ahead of the new year. EURUSD – The EURUSD rallied sharply yesterday as the US dollar was generally on its back foot, but a solid jump higher in EU sovereign bond yields and the official handover of power to the new German government coalition yesterday may have been elements supporting the rally. The move rose as high as 1.1350, just ahead of tactical resistance near 1.1375, the last hurdle ahead of more major trend resistance near 1.1500. In many past cycles, the calendar roll has proven a major inflection point for EURUSD. The December 15 FOMC meeting and December 16 ECB meeting both look important for the provision of new guidance, with the FOMC already having made a clear hawkish shift, while the ECB will have to deliver revised inflation forecasts and guidance on balance sheet policy after its emergency “PEPP” form of QE is set to end in March. AUDUSD – The Aussie has undergone a significant sentiment shift from one of the weakest G10 currencies to one of the strongest in recent sessions, in part on the reversal in risk sentiment, but also aided by China signaling a willingness to ease policy. Speculative positioning in the US futures market suggest a very heavy short position that, if similar to positioning in the OTC market, could provide significant fuel for a squeeze higher in the currency if the backdrop of improving risk sentiment and a focus on inflation risks further boosts the price action in key commodities like iron ore, coking coal and other metals. At any rate, AUDUSD has reversed up through the first resistance near 0.7100 and is now staring down the next pivotal area into 0.720-7250, needing to blast through this and then some to suggest an attempt to put in a bottom after touching the huge 0.7000 level within the last week. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN22) trades higher for a fourth day as omicron demand concerns continue to ease and speculators accumulate length following last week’s washout. Flare-ups around the world resulting in temporary lockdowns is however likely to prevent the market from returning to pre-omicron levels at this point. The EIA reported a small 240k barrels weekly decline in crude stocks while inventories of fuel rose by a combined 6.6 million barrels. Next level of resistance in Brent being the 21-day moving average at $77.20 followed by $77.60. Gold (XAUUSD) remains stuck below the 200-day moving average, currently at $1793 with the market struggling for direction ahead of Friday’s key US inflation data. Support from a softer dollar continues to be offset by worries that a succession of expected US rate hikes in 2022 will drive up US real yields, thereby reducing a key source of support for gold. Ahead of Friday’s CPI data, the market has priced in three rate hikes next year with the first potentially coming as soon as May. Focus on silver (XAGUSD) which following its recent 13% slump is trying to establish support at $22, thereby supporting a lower XAUXAG ratio has stopped rising after finding resistance above 80 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). Haven bid for bonds faded as news hit the market that a third vaccine dose gives coverage for the omicron strain. Ten-year US Treasury yields rose above 1.50%, and yesterday’s 10-year US Treasury auction wasn’t as good as the 3-year auction the previous day. It tailed 0.4bps pricing at 1.518%. The bid-to-cover rose to 2.43x, a little lower than the past six auctions average. The yield curve bear steepened. Yet, we expect long-term yields to remain compressed if Covid infections still are an issue and lead to more restrictions. Today, the Treasury is selling 30-year bonds. If the selloff in the long part of the yield curve continues, we might witness a weak auction. What is going on? China PPI falls less than expected in November as it rises 12.9% year-on-year. The PPI number is widely considered a global inflation barometer as China is “the world’s factory”. The rise was higher than the 12.1% year-on-year expected, but lower than October’s 13.5%. The November China CPI number came in slightly cooler than expected at 2.3% year-on-year versus 2.5% expected and 1.5% in October. Pfizer says three shots of its vaccine offer more significant protection against the omicron covid variant. This news from yesterday sounded more promising than the news from just yesterday from a preliminary South African study that patients vaccinated with two shots showed some, but heavily reduced, production of antibodies in patients with the omicron variant. Pfizer found the same, but says that a third shot can bring the antibody response to similar levels as for the prior covid variants. Pfizer also said an omicron-targeted version of its vaccine could be ready in March. Buffett-backed digital lender Nubank to start trading today. The Brazilian-based digital bank Nubank is raising $2.6bn in its IPO becoming of the biggest IPOs this year with shares priced at $9 and first day of trading today on NYSE. This will mark one of the biggest publicly listed fintech companies in the world and provide a glimpse into the feasibility of running a large digital only bank. Bank of Canada upgrades language on inflation, likely set for January rate hike. The new Bank of Canada policy statement dropped a reference from the prior statement on “temporary” inflation forces, though it still maintained the expectation that inflation would drop toward 2 percent in the second half of next year. The strength in the jobs market was noted. Overall, the hawkish language changes were clear, if relatively small relative to rather aggressive market shift in expectations, and Canadian yields eased a few basis points lower at the front part of the yield curve, though a January rate hike from the bank remains likely, according to market expectations. Brazil hikes policy rate 150 basis points, BRL sees sharp gains. The rate hike to 9.25% was in line with expectations, but the central bank delivered hawkish guidance for another hike of the same size at the February meeting as the bank has clearly gone into aggressive inflation fighting mode. The Brazilian real responded strongly, gaining some 1.4% versus the US dollar yesterday. The EU gas and power market went from bad to worse yesterday after an unplanned outage temporarily cut supplies from Norway’s giant Troll field. Coming on top of geopolitical risks related to Ukraine, low winter supplies from Russia, freezing cold weather and rapidly declining stocks, these developments have driven Dutch TTF one month benchmark gas back above €100 per MWh or $34 per MMBtu. With rising demand for coal driving the cost of EU emissions to a fresh record above €90 per tons, the cost of power has surged as well. In Germany the one-year baseload contract reached a record €189 per MWh, or 5 times the long-term average. What are we watching next? WASDE on tap - Ahead of today’s monthly update on world supply and demand, the grains sector has seen a slight drift lower during the past week as the market tried to gauge the impact of the omicron variant. Today’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand report (WASDE) will primarily focus on ending stocks with expectations pointing to a relatively quiet update. US corn stockpiles are expected to have fallen slightly from November while wheat and soybean stocks are both expected to be higher, both in the US and globally. The EU is set to decide by December 22 whether investments in gas and nuclear energy should be labelled climate friendly. The design of the EU green investment classification system is closely watched by investors worldwide and could potentially attract billions of euros in private finance to help the green transition, especially given the need to reduce the usage of coal, the biggest polluter. This week’s earnings: Today’s focus is Oracle which is still struggling to find an attractive growth trajectory in the age of cloud applications, SaaS business models, and more open-source software on databases with flat revenue over the past four fiscal years. Lululemon has been one of the big winners during the pandemic gaining tailwind from home exercising, but generally the company taps into a longer-term trend of personal health. Analysts expect Lululemon to report 29% y/y revenue growth in Q3 (ending 31 October). Thursday: Sekisui House, Hormel Foods, Costco Wholesale, Oracle, Broadcom, Lululemon Athletica, Chewy, Vail Resorts Friday: Carl Zeiss Meditec Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Hungary Rate Announcement 1200 – Mexico Nov. CPI 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims 1530 – EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 1700 – USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Report (WASDE) 1800 – US Treasury 30-year T-Bond auction   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Market Quick Take - December 14, 2021

Market Quick Take - December 14, 2021

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 14.12.2021 11:57
Macro 2021-12-14 08:35 6 minutes to read Summary:  Risk sentiment soured yesterday, with some attributing the market nervousness to uncertainty on how hawkish a pivot the Fed is set to make at the FOMC tomorrow, although Fed rate expectations for next year as expressed in the most liquid futures have eased from recent highs. That meeting is the most significant major macro event risk for the 2021 calendar year, although important ECB and BoE meetings are set for Thursday. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - yesterday was a very disappointing session for US technology stocks with Nasdaq 100 futures looking to push higher early during the session but ended on the lowest close in four trading sessions. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading around the 16,110 level this morning with the 50-day average around the 15,810 level as the key support level to watch on the downside should risk-off continue. EURUSD – the EURUSD supermajor continues to coil in a tight range ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow and ECB meeting on Thursday, both of which are set to bring refreshed forecasts for the economy and policy. The FOMC meeting is likely to carry more weight in terms of the market reaction, especially if the Fed waxes more hawkish than expected (more below) and takes Fed rate expectations for next year to new highs for the cycle. The lines in the sand on the chart include the 1.1186 lows of November, while the recent pivot highs of 1.1355 and 1.1384 bar the upside, with 1.1500 a more structural resistance/pivot zone. AUDUSD – watching the US dollar closely over the next couple of sessions, particularly in the wake of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and what it brings in the way of a crystallization of the Fed’s hawkish shift (more below) and in the market reaction. If the meeting brings a spike in market volatility, traditionally risk-correlated currencies like the Aussie could show high beta to swings in the US dollar in either direction (I.e., if the Fed waxes more hawkish than expected and this triggers risk-off and a stronger USD). AUDUSD recently broke down through the prior 2021 lows near 0.7100 and tested the huge 0.7000 level before staging a sharp bounce. That 0.7000 level could serve as a kind of “bull-bear” line from here. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN22) has settled into a relatively narrow range with Brent finding resistance at $76, the 21-day moving average while support remains the 200-day moving average at $73.15. OPEC in its monthly oil market report maintained their 4.2 million barrels per day demand growth outlook for 2022 with current omicron-related weakness being offset by a strong recovery during Q1. The Saudi energy minister said the energy transition will cause an oil-price spike later this decade while also warning traders against shorting the market at a time where large speculators have reduced their Brent crude oil long to a 13-month low. On tap today we have IEA’s Monthly Oil Market Report. Gold (XAUUSD) remains stuck just below its 200-day moving average at $1794 with focus on what 20 central bank meetings this week will deliver in terms of inflation fighting measures at a time where the omicron variant continues to cloud the economic outlook. With US inflation rising at the fastest pace since the 1980’s, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting remains the top event. The market is currently pricing in three rate hikes next year with the first one due around June. The other semi-investment metals of silver (XAGUSD) and platinum (XPTUSD) both struggling with the latter’s 850-dollar discount to gold, near a one year high, potentially deserving some attention. US Treasuries (TLH, TLT). The US yield curve bulled flatten yesterday with 10-year yields falling by 7bps to test support at 1.41%. To contribute to this move was news of the first omicron death in the UK, and the winding done of short US Treasury positions before the end of the year. Price action will remain volatile ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, where Powell is expected to announce an acceleration of the pace of tapering. The focus is going to be also on the Dot plot, where longer term projections might be moved higher, pushing up the long part of the yield curve. However, long-term yields can move higher only that much, as omicron distortions will continue to keep them compressed. It looks likely that 10-year yields will continue to trade rangebound between 1.40% and 1.70% until the end of the year. European sovereign bonds (IS0L, BTP10). The Bund yield curve bull flattened yesterday led by safe-haven buying amid concerns over omicron. Italian BTPS gained the most as the market pushes back on interest rate hikes in 2022. The focus, however, continues to be on the ECB meeting on Thursday. An announcement of the end of the PEPP program in March 2022 is widely anticipated. What’s not clear is whether it will be announced that bond purchases will be compensated by another scheme, such as the APP. It is likely that the ECB will stall as members are torn between inflation and a new wave of Covid infections. If investors feel the support of the central bank is fading, European yields might resume their rise with the periphery and Italian BTPS leading the way. Yet, the move will be contained as yields will remain compressed by covid concerns. UK Gilts (IGLT, IGLS). The BOE might not deliver on a 10bps interest rate hike this week as members are divided concerning Covid restrictions. Michael Saunders, one of the most hawkish MPC members, said that he will need to think about it twice before voting for a rate hike. As expectations for interest rate hikes in the UK are the most aggressive among developed economies. It is possible that if the central bank does not hike, the Gilt yield curve will be steeping with short-term Gilts gaining the most as the market pushes back on next year’s rate expectations. What is going on? China reports first omicron variant case of covid - bringing fears of supply chain disruptions due to the country’s zero tolerance policy on virus cases that can mean profound shutdowns in response to outbreaks. Chinese property developers under new pressure, with the focus this time on Shimao Group Holdings, whose Hong-Kong listing is down over 75% this year and down over 30% over the last week on concerns that a deal between the company’s business units is a sign of financial stress for the company. The company’s 2030 USD-denominated bonds lost almost 13% overnight as the yield rose above 10%. Other Chinese property developer shares were also under pressure overnight. Tesla shares down 5% as growth stocks are under pressure. Tesla shares pushed below $1,000 yesterday adding further pressure to related assets in the Ark Innovation ETF and Bitcoin is also seen lower this morning. Elon Musk sold $907mn worth of shares yesterday according to a filing overnight in order to pay taxes on another round stock options that were exercised. Toyota finally pushes into EV. Japan’s largest carmaker wants to compete with Tesla and Volkswagen announcing $35bn of investments into battery electric vehicles showing the first sign that Toyota is acknowledging that this is the future of the industry. Toyota has so far pursued hybrids on the ground of being more economical, but this push into BEV with 30 new models validates BEVs once and for all, even though Toyota is still saying that it does not know which technology will win. US Harley-Davidson set to spin-off EV motorcycle unit – the plan to spin off Harley’s EV business via a SPAC saw Harley-Davidson shares spike 19% before surrendering most of the gains. Harley’s LiveWire EV business unit will combine with SPAC AEA-Bridges Impact to form a new publicly traded company. The move is meant to take advantage of the premium the market is willing to pay for pure-play EV companies. EU diplomats suggest time running out on Iran nuclear deal - as Iran is progressing rapidly toward enriching uranium for potential use in nuclear weapons. The diplomats worry that without a breakthrough soon, the original 2015 agreement “will very soon become an empty shell.” What are we watching next? The Wednesday FOMC as the year’s final major macro event risk. The FOMC meeting tomorrow is set to bring a very different monetary policy statement from the prior statement after the Fed’s clear pivot to inflation fighting mode. As well, the meeting will see an update of economic forecasts and interest rate policy forecasts (the “dot plot” in which 19 Fed members forecast where the Fed funds rate will likely be in 2022-24 and in the longer term). Most interesting will be the degree to which Fed members have raised their policy rate forecasts relative to what the market is predicting, which is for just under three rate hikes through the end of next year. Prior forecasts have generally come in lower than market expectations. The baseline expectation for the pace of QE “tapering”, or slowing of purchases, is that the Fed will double the pace of tapering, which would mean the Fed’s balance sheet is set to stop growing by the end of March. Anything that suggests a faster pace of tapering than this doubling (for example, a promise to wind down before March) and that hints that a hike at the March FOMC meeting is possible would be a hawkish surprise. The European Council meets on Thursday, and apart from having to deal with Covid-19 and the Russian threat on its eastern borders, the council is also set to decide whether investments in gas and nuclear energy should be labelled climate friendly. The design of the EU green investment classification system is closely watched by investors worldwide and could potentially attract billions of euros in private finance to help the green transition, especially given the need to reduce the usage of coal, the biggest polluter. Earnings Watch – the earnings calendar is getting very thin this week and no major earnings expected today. Wednesday: Inditex, Toro, Lennar, Heico, Trip.com, Nordson Thursday: FedEx, Adobe, Accenture Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Sweden Nov. CPI 1000 – Euro Zone Oct. Industrial Production 1100 – US Nov. NFIB Small Business Optimism 1300 – Hungary Central Bank Rate Decision 1330 – US Nov. PPI 1900 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr before parliament committee 2130 – API Weekly Report on US Oil and Fuel Inventories 2330 – Australia Dec. Westpac Consumer Confidence 0200 – China Nov. Retail Sales 0200 – China Nov. Industrial Production During the day: IEA’s Monthly Oil Market Report   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Needs Catalyst

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Needs Catalyst

John Benjamin John Benjamin 15.12.2021 08:38
XAUUSD awaits breakout Gold consolidates as traders await the Fed’s monetary policy update. The metal came under pressure after it erased all gains from the November rally. Price action is stuck in a narrowing range between the daily support at 1760 and 1806. This indicates the market’s indecision. A bearish breakout would confirm the bearish MA cross on the daily chart and trigger an extended sell-off towards the floor at 1680. On the upside, a rally would send the price to retest the previous peak at 1870. GBPCAD rises towards key resistance The pound bounced back after Britain showed strong wage growth in the three months to October. A bullish RSI divergence indicated a loss of momentum in the latest sell-off. A break above 1.6770 and then a bullish MA cross were the confirmation for a reversal. The pair is heading towards the daily resistance level at 1.7100. Its breach may lead to a broader rally in the medium term. In the meantime, an overbought RSI could temporarily limit the extension. 1.6900 is the closest support in case of a pullback. USOIL seeks support Oil prices struggled after the International Energy Agency said that the omicron strain may threaten global demand. WTI crude is hovering under the 20-day moving average after the RSI briefly shot into the overbought territory. 74.10 near the 30-day moving average seems to be a tough nut to crack for now. A bullish breakout would attract momentum buyers and send the price to the daily resistance at 79.00. Otherwise, 68.00 from the latest rally is the support to keep the rebound valid.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold In Limited Pullback

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold In Limited Pullback

John Benjamin John Benjamin 22.12.2021 08:40
XAUUSD seeks support Gold softens as the US dollar edged higher. A surge above 1788 and then 1808 has prompted the bears to cover. The precious metal is looking for support after the breakout stalled with an overextended RSI. A bearish MA cross may weigh on short-term sentiment. The base of the initial breakout around 1770 is a key support. A deeper correction would lead to the daily support at 1753, a critical level to keep the rebound relevant. Gold may climb towards 1850 if the bulls succeed in pushing above 1814. USDCAD consolidates gains The Canadian dollar recouped some losses after better-than-expected retail sales. A break above the major daily resistance at 1.2930 has put the bulls back in control of the direction. The RSI’s repeated overbought situation may cause a temporary pullback. Trend followers would be looking to jump in at a better price. 1.2880 is the closest support. Sentiment would remain upbeat as long as price action is above 1.2770. A rally above the intermediate resistance at 1.2960 may trigger an extended rally towards 1.3200. UK 100 makes a bullish attempt The FTSE 100 recovered some ground after the Omicron sell-off. The index has found solid buying at 7110. An oversold RSI has attracted a buying-the-dips crowd. A tentative break above 7300 suggests strong interest in keeping the market afloat. A bullish MA cross could lead to an acceleration on the upside. 7385 is a major hurdle on the daily chart. Its breach could cause a runaway rally and resume the uptrend. On the downside, 7250 is the first support, and 7110 is the second line of defense in case of weakness.
XAUUSD seeks support, NZDUSD consolidates recent gains, EURUSD tests important resistance

XAUUSD seeks support, NZDUSD consolidates recent gains, EURUSD tests important resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.12.2021 08:42
EURUSD tests important resistance The US dollar struggles as the Omicron scare subsides. The pair has been stuck in a narrow range between 1.1230 and 1.1360, because of a lack of liquidity and a catalyst. Following a bounce from 1.1260 price action is testing the upper band of the horizontal consolidation. A bullish breakout would pop up volatility as sellers rush for the exit. An extended rally would set 1.1450 as the next target. On the downside, a fall below 1.1260 may prolong the sideways action for a few more days. NZDUSD consolidates recent gains The New Zealand dollar softens over a limited year-end risk appetite. The latest surge above 0.6830 has put the bears on the defensive. Intraday traders took profit after the RSI showed overextension. The current flag-shaped consolidation could be an opportunity for the bulls to regroup and catch their breath. The demand zone around 0.6760 is a major level to support the rebound. On the upside, 0.6840 on the 30-day moving average is the closest resistance. And its breach may trigger a broader rally towards 0.6920. XAUUSD seeks support Gold edged higher as the US dollar slipped across the board. A close above the supply zone around 1815 is a short-term confirmation that sentiment favors the upside. A bullish MA cross on the hourly chart indicates that the recovery could be picking up steam. Above 1820, 1840 would be the target when momentum makes its way back into the market. In the meantime, buyers may see a retracement to 1803 as an opportunity to buy the dip after the RSI returned to the neutrality area. 1790 is a second level of support.
USDCHF a bit down, XAUUSD not changing much and we might say USOIL steadily goes up

USDCHF a bit down, XAUUSD not changing much and we might say USOIL steadily goes up

John Benjamin John Benjamin 13.01.2022 08:54
USDCHF tests daily support The US dollar plunged after December’s CPI slowed down to 0.5% from 0.8% in November. Despite a swift recovery from the daily support at 0.9100, price action came under pressure once again at December’s supply area (0.9280). The dive below 0.9180 then 0.9140 is a sign of liquidation as buyers rush to the exit. As the greenback revisits the critical support at 0.9100, an oversold RSI may attract some buying interest. The former demand area around 0.9200 is now the first resistance level. XAUUSD looks to break out Gold edged higher as the US dollar softened across the board. The precious metal has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 1830. This level used to be a support from last November’s sell-off. The recovery above the psychological level of 1800 shows the bulls’ commitment to keeping the price afloat. A break above the supply zone would force the sell-side to cover and trigger an extended rally towards the previous peak at 1870. On the downside, 1800 has turned into a fresh support. USOIL continues upward WTI crude climbed higher after a larger-than-expected fall in US inventories. A close above the daily resistance at 79.00 was a strong bullish sign. Following a brief pause, the rally accelerated above 80.40. Sentiment remains upbeat and the bulls are keen to buy the dip during a pullback. A breach above 82.20 would clear the path to the peak at 85.00. An overbought RSI may cause a temporary retreat. In that case, trend-followers could be looking to jump in near the closest support at 81.20.
Gold Chart And Silver Chart Look Quite Similar We Might Say...

Gold Chart And Silver Chart Look Quite Similar We Might Say...

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 19.01.2022 15:10
  While the USD show is gaining applause, silver has decided to present its repertoire too. Was its rally just a magic trick or a good omen for gold? Bond yields soared once again, just as I’ve been expecting them to for many months now. The reaction in some markets was as expected (the USD Index soared), but in some, it was perplexing. Gold moved lower a little, miners declined a bit more, and silver… rallied. Who’s faking it? Well, perhaps nobody is. Let’s look at the yields’ movement first. The 10-year bond yields have just moved to new yearly highs and are also above their 2021 highs. This happened just after they moved back to their 50-week moving average (marked in blue). For a long time, I’ve been writing that the 2013 performance is likely to be repeated also in this market, and that’s exactly what is taking place right now. Bond yields are doing what they did back then. If history continues to rhyme, we can expect bond yields to rally further, the USD Index to gain, and we can predict gold at lower prices. Speaking of the USD Index, let’s take a look at what it did yesterday. It soared over 0.5 index points, which was the largest daily increase so far this year. This happened after the USD Index moved to a combination of powerful support levels: the rising medium-term support line and the late-2020 high. The tiny attempts to move below those levels were quickly invalidated, and the USD Index was likely to rally back up; and so it did. What’s next? The uptrend was not broken, so it’s likely to continue. In other words, the USD Index’s rally is likely to continue, and this, in turn, is likely to trigger declines across the precious metals sector. Gold didn’t react with a significant decline yesterday – just a moderate/small one – which some might view as bullish. I’d say that it’s rather neutral. The rally above the 2021 highs in bond yields might have come as a shock to many investors, and they might not have been sure how to react or what to make of it. It might also have been the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” type of reaction. Either way, it seems to me that we’ll have to wait a few days and see how it plays out once the dust settles. The volume that we saw yesterday was huge. After a period of relatively average volume, we saw this huge volume spike. I marked the previous cases with red arrows. In those cases, such volume accompanied gold’s sizable declines. This time, the volume spike accompanied a $4.10 decline, which might appear perplexing. Fortunately, gold is not the only market that we can analyze, and – as it’s often the case – context provides us with details that help to make sense of what really happened. Let’s check the key supplemental factor – silver’s price action. While gold declined a bit, silver soared over $0.5! The volume that accompanied this sizable daily upswing was the biggest that we’ve seen so far this year too. The latter provides additional confirmation of the importance of yesterday’s session. What was it that happened yesterday that was so important? Silver outperformed gold on a very short-term basis! This is profoundly important, because that’s what has been accompanying gold’s, silver’s, and mining stocks’ tops for many years. Knowing to pay attention to even small signs of silver’s outperformance is one of the useful gold trading tips, and the extent of the outperformance is what determines the importance of the signal (and its bearishness). The extent was huge yesterday, so the implications are very bearish. Yes, silver moved to new yearly highs as well, but silver is known for its fake breakouts (“fakeouts”), which usually happen without analogous moves in gold and mining stocks. Since neither gold nor miners moved to new yearly highs yesterday, it seems that silver “faked out” once again. Silver is up in today’s pre-market trading, and gold is up only slightly, but the latter is not even close to moving to new 2022 highs. The GDX ETF is actually down in today’s London trading (at the moment of writing these words). Speaking of mining stocks, let’s take a look at what happened in them yesterday. In short, they declined – by over 1%, which is about five times more than gold. Since silver outperformed gold, while gold miners underperformed it, the implications for the precious metals sector are bearish. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

Gold Price Chart Might Make Some Investors Happy, US 30 With Reds

John Benjamin John Benjamin 21.01.2022 08:59
XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold surged over geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine. Following a three-week-long sideways grind, the break above the triple top at 1830 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side. 1850 is the next level to clear, which would lead to November’s peak at 1877. The RSI has shot into the overbought area, and some profit-taking could briefly drive the price lower. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to join in. 1820 near the base of the recent rally is a key support in this case. AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar climbed back after the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in December. A surge above 0.7270 was the bulls’ attempt to initiate a reversal. As sellers covered their bets, the way might be open for a meaningful rebound. The follow-up correction met solid buying interest at 0.7170. Sentiment would remain upbeat as long as price action stays above this key support. 0.7290 is an important hurdle and its breach could trigger a runaway rally towards 0.7420. US 30 tests major support The Dow Jones 30 retreats as traders take profit ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. The index has given up all its gains from the late December rally and fell through the daily support at 34700. This bearish breakout could extend losses to the psychological level of 34000, a critical floor to prevent a deeper correction in the medium-term. The RSI’s oversold situation may attract some buying interest. Nonetheless, the bulls will need to lift offers around 35500 in a show of force, in order to turn sentiment around.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Gains Bullish Momentum

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Gains Bullish Momentum

John Benjamin John Benjamin 27.01.2022 08:26
USDCAD breaks higherThe Canadian dollar slipped after the BOC kept interest rates unchanged. Its US counterpart found support at 1.2560 after a brief pullback.An oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters. The current rebound is a sign that there is a strong interest in pushing for a bullish reversal. 1.2700 is a key supply zone as it coincides with the 30-day moving average.A breakout would definitely turn sentiment around and trigger a runaway rally. In turn, this sets the daily resistance at 1.2810 as the next target.NZDUSD continues lowerThe New Zealand dollar steadied after the Q4 CPI beat expectations.However, the pair is still in bearish territory after it broke below the lower end (0.6750) of the flag consolidation from the daily time frame. The RSI’s oversold situation brought in a buying-the-dips crowd around 0.6660 but its breach indicates a lack of buying interest.The kiwi is now testing November 2020’s low at 0.6600. The bears could be waiting to fade the next bounce with 0.6700 as a fresh resistance.XAUUSD pulls back for supportGold tumbled after the US Fed signaled it may raise interest rates in March. The rally stalled at 1853 and a break below the resistance-turned-support at 1830 flushed some buyers out.1810 at the base of the previous bullish breakout is a second line of defense. The short-term uptrend may still be intact as long as the metal stays above this key support.A deeper correction would drive the price down to the daily support at 1785. The bulls need a rebound above 1838 to regain control of price action.
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

S&P 500 Tops The Chart, Gold Finds His Way (?), USOIL On A Straight Way?

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.02.2022 09:01
XAUUSD attempts to bounce The bullions bounce higher as the US dollar softens across the board. Gold is looking to claw back losses from the liquidation in late January. A close above the psychological level of 1800 would be the first step, pushing short-term sellers into covering their bets. The previous support at 1817 coincides with the 30-day moving average, making it an area of interest and important resistance. A bullish breakout may send the metal to the previous high at 1847. On the downside, 1780 is a fresh support. SPX 500 tests resistance The S&P 500 rallies over better-than-expected corporate earnings. A break above 4490 has eased the selling pressure on the index. The former daily support at 4600 is now a key resistance that lies over the 30-day moving average. A close above this congestion area could turn sentiment around, paving the way for a recovery towards 4750. The RSI’s overbought situation may keep the momentum in check temporarily. A pullback may see buying interest in the demand zone between 4410 and 4490. USOIL consolidates gains WTI crude continues to climb as OPEC+ refuses to raise its output limit. The RSI inched into the overbought territory on the daily chart after a new high above 85.00. The bulls could be wary of chasing after the extended rally. 85.00 has turned into a support and a pullback could be an opportunity to accumulate again. Further down, 82.00 on the 30-day moving average is a major floor for the current rally. The milestone at 90.00 would be the next target when momentum makes its return.
Bubble stocks...

Recovery Of Gold (XAUUSD), Will NZDUSD Meet The Sell-off? UK 100 Keeps Quite High Values

John Benjamin John Benjamin 08.02.2022 08:48
XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold continues to recover as the US dollar treads water. The previous fall below the daily support at 1785 had put the bulls on the defensive. The RSI’s oversold signal attracted some buying interest and prompted sellers to cover, driving up the price. The rebound has since gained traction after the metal rallied above the support-turned-resistance at 1817. In fact, the bullish breakout may raise momentum and open the door to the recent peak at 1850. On the downside, 1795 is a major support to keep buyers committed. NZDUSD remains under pressure The New Zealand dollar edges lower amid cautious market sentiment at the start of the week. The pair previously bounced off September 2020’s low around 0.6530. However, 0.6700 on the 20-day moving average so far has proven to be a tough hurdle. A drop below the fresh support (0.6630) indicates that the directional bias remains bearish. And sellers would be eager to fade another rebound. 0.6590 is the closest support. A break below 0.6530 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.6400. UK 100 awaits breakout The FTSE 100 rallies supported by solid performance in the commodity sector. The recent rebound hit resistance near the January peak at 7640. Narrowing consolidation and higher highs suggest increased buying pressure. A bullish breakout would flush sellers out and attract momentum traders, firing up volatility in the process. This would be a strong bullish continuation signal. 7460 is a fresh support if the market remains indecisive. Its breach could extend the correction back to 7250.
Swissquote MarketTalk: A Look At XAUUSD, Swiss Secrets, Tesla And More

After The US CPI, We All Want To Review Our Moves - Friday's Swisquote's MarketTalk Is Here To Help Us

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 11.02.2022 10:40
Thursday’s data showed that consumer prices in the US advanced from 7.0% to 7.5% in January, more than 7.3% penciled in by analysts. The Fed hawks came back in charge aggressively following the US inflation print as St Louis President Bullard said he’d ‘like to see 100 basis points in the bag by July 1’. All three major US indices were moody yesterday, but Nasdaq led losses as it’s the most sensitive to the rate changes. Rising hawkish noises from the Federal Reserve (Fed) backed the US dollar. The EURUSD is back below the 1.14 mark and Christine Lagarde insists that acting too fast could choke the economy’s recovery, but not acting at all will choke the economy, as well. In commodities, gold first rallied than fell warning again that it may not be the best inflation hegde at the current levels, but commodity ETFs and energy-heavy stock indices are. In this episode, you will find my favorite inflation hedge plays. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:30 Inflation & Fed talk 2:20 Risk appetite: hammered 3:32 Bitcoin: NOT the best macro play for this year 4:51 USD up, EUR down, but… 6:00 Best inflation hedge ideas Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Speaking Of nVidia Stock, S&P500 (SPX), The Conflict In Eastern Europe And GBP State

Look At This XAUUSD Slide. Did GBPUSD Find Its Straight Line?

John Benjamin John Benjamin 16.02.2022 08:43
EURUSD bounces off support The US dollar retreats as the Fed’s half-point hike in March remains uncertain. The euro’s break above the daily resistance at 1.1480 boosted buyers’ confidence after a sell-off in January. It bounced off 1.1280 at the base of the recent bullish breakout. The support also is right next to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1265) making it an area of congestion. A close above the intermediate resistance (1.1370) would attract more buying interest. Then an extension above 1.1490 may fuel a rally towards 1.1600. GBPUSD awaits breakout The sterling holds well as Britain’s wage growth beats expectations in December. The current rebound came under pressure in the supply zone around 1.3660 which was the origin of a sharp drop in late January. An overbought RSI led to some profit-taking but the pound has found support above 1.3480. The bears’ failed attempts to push lower indicates strong demand. A bullish close above 1.3640 would lift offers towards last month’s high at 1.3750. The daily support at 1.3370 is a key floor in keeping the rally intact. XAUUSD seeks support Gold drifts lower on signs of de-escalation in Ukraine. A break above last November’s high at 1875 may have put the precious metal back on track. However, the rally ran out of steam in the short term with the RSI shooting into the overbought territory. The price is taking a breather and buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. A drop below 1852 may wash out weak hands and deepen the correction towards 1830. 1880 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could propel bullion to last June’s high at 1910.
Equities Of Europe Are Under Pressure

Speaking Of nVidia Stock, S&P500 (SPX), The Conflict In Eastern Europe And GBP State

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 17.02.2022 10:42
Good mood didn’t last long as the US didn’t let the tensions de-escalate insisting that Russia is certainly not pulling back its troops but is rather increasing its presence at the Ukrainian border. The US warning hit the investor appetite at yesterday’s session and reversed the earlier week gains in stock indices. As a result, the safe have flows boosted gold, again, as crude oil remained steady around the $92 per barrel. US equities were soft but the S&P500 erased a part of losses at a late-session rally after the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes, the pricing on the fed funds front flipped to give more chance for a 25bp hike in March, instead of a 50-bp hike. In the FX markets, the US dollar remains strong, while the pound-dollar is eking out gains above the 1.35 mark as the high inflation in the UK keeps the Bank of England (BoE) hawks in charge of the market. Bitcoin is pointed as a risk to the global financial stability, as Fidelity launches Europe's cheapest Bitcoin ETP. In the individual stocks, Nvidia’s strong results didn’t boost the share price in the afterhours trading, Virgin Galactic couldn’t extend Tuesday’s days on worries that they may have some execution problems sending people to the moon and Roblox tanked 26% on softer results. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Ukraine update 1:22 Gold up, but gains vulnerable 1:54 US equities fine with the hawkish Fed minutes 3:38 Sterling gains on soaring inflation expectations 4:54 Cryptocurrencies: a risk to financial stability? 6:04 Why strong results don't boost appetite in Nvidia? 7:35 Why the space travel doesn't seduce investors? 8:34 And why Roblox is not in a good place to reverse losses? Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Incredible Price Of Crude Oil, A Look At Cryptomarket, Dollar Index (DXY) And ECB

Swissquote MarketTalk: A Look At XAUUSD, Swiss Secrets, Tesla And More

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 21.02.2022 11:00
The week starts with some comfort regarding the Ukrainian crisis on news that Biden and Putin agreed to meet. US futures are in the positive after having closed the week on a bearish tone. Gold traded a touch below the $1910 this morning but eased below the $1900 mark on encouraging Ukraine-Russai news. Oil slipped below the $90 per barrel on Friday and is now steady a touch above that level. In Switzerland, the sentiment is soft due to the Swiss Secrets that broke in over the weekend. The latest news will likely weigh on Credit Suisse and send a broader shockwave to the Swiss bank, but the medium-term implications for the other Swiss banks should remain limited. US indices closed last week on a negative note. The S&P500 slid 0.72% and Nasdaq lost 1.23%. Nasdaq is now walking with big steps toward a death cross formation on its daily chart, which could further increase the bearish pressure on the stock price. The macro environment isn’t necessarily supportive of the equity markets this year. The hawkish Fed expectations, an imminent rate hike, combined with the prospects of an early and maybe an aggressive shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet are not appetizing for risk investors. Yet, we begin the week having mostly ruled out the possibility of seeing a 50bp hike in March meeting. Happy Monday! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:26 Ukraine update 1:52 The Swiss Secrets: a big deal? 4:27 Gold, oil ease on encouraging Ukraine news 5:41 Nasdaq: death cross formation ahead! 8:06 Tesla at crossroads 8:43 Other EV makers under pressure 10:07 Nikola, Moderna, Block & Alibaba earnings to watch this week Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD falls back under $1,900 after setting fresh multi-month highs near-$1,910

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD falls back under $1,900 after setting fresh multi-month highs near-$1,910

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.02.2022 16:08
Gold hit fresh multi-month highs near the $1,910 on Monday but has since dropped back under the $1,900 handle. Geopolitics remains the wildcard that could stoke surprise volatility in either a bullish or bearish direction. Spot gold (XAU/USD) prices hit fresh multi-month highs near $1,910 on Monday during Asia Pacific session, but have again failed to hold north of the $1,900 handle. In recent trade, the precious metal has been caught going sideways in the mid-$1,890s, with the prospect for a fresh push higher again on Monday limited by the lack of market volume stateside. US markets are shut on Monday for Presidents Day so it is likely to be a very quiet US session. Geopolitics remains the wildcard that could stoke surprise volatility in either a bullish or bearish direction. The Russian rouble has been coming under significant pressure on Monday, indicative of rising fears of a Russian invasion/military incursion into Ukraine that would trigger a round of sanctions from Western countries against Moscow. Violence between pro-Russia separatists and Ukraine’s military in the contested Donbass region continued on Monday, the former group upping the inflammatory rhetoric by accusing Ukraine’s military of shelling and planning a full-scale assault. This is keeping gold underpinned close to recent highs. At current levels in the mid-$1,890s, the precious metal trades close to flat on the day and only about 0.75% below earlier session highs. One bearish risk to note for gold is whether a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden goes ahead this week following recent chatter. The meeting could be a good opportunity to ease tensions somewhat. Otherwise, US data and Fed speak will be worth watching, but will, for the most part, still play second fiddle to the Ukraine crisis.
Price Of Gold Chart (XAUUSD) Reaches Levels Of January 2021

Price Of Gold Chart (XAUUSD) Reaches Levels Of January 2021

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 24.02.2022 11:41
  The war has begun: after a few weeks of tense situation, Russia has taken a radical step and started an invasion of Ukraine. How will this affect gold? Boy, ! The Russia-Ukraine conflict is intensifying swiftly. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the recognition of two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk regions). The decree also included an order to send Russian troops there as “peacekeeping forces”. In response, Ukraine declared a state of emergency, while the EU banned purchases of Russian government bonds and imposed sanctions on most members of the Russian parliament. Germany froze approvals for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. American President Joe Biden also released the first tranche of sanctions against Russia, targeted mainly at banks and sovereign debt, and promised further moves: Today, I am announcing the first tranche of sanctions to impose a cost on Russia in response to their actions yesterday. We’ll continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates. We are implementing full blocking sanctions on two large Russian financial institutions VEB and military bank. We are implementing comprehensive sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt. That means we’ve cut off Russia’s government from Western financing. Starting tomorrow, we’ll also impose sanctions on Russia’s elites and family members. Putin wasn’t apparently impressed by these sanctions, as he authorized a military operation in eastern Ukraine early Thursday. The invasion has started. Indeed, there are reports of Russian troops crossing the Ukrainian border in multiple locations, and of explosions in many of the country’s cities, including the capital, Kyiv. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted that: Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes. This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now.   Implications for Gold What does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, risk aversion has soared amid the conflict. Equities are plunging while safe-haven assets are soaring. This, of course, applies also to gold, which rallied to $1,905 on Wednesday, the highest level since January 2021, as the chart below shows. In response to the invasion, the price of the yellow metal continued its upward trend, soaring to $1,945 on early Thursday, as one can see in the chart below. The move was perfectly in line with what I wrote on Tuesday: “if Russia invades Ukraine, the yellow metal should gain further.” Now, the question is: what next? I’m not a military expert, so I have no idea how the conflict will end. However, I know three things. The first is that the conflict will last some time. During the escalation period, gold prices will be driven up by risk aversion and safe-haven demand. Second, the conflict will start to de-escalate and end at some point. Then, we could see a correction in the gold market. Having said that, the yellow metal doesn’t have to immediately return to the pre-conflict level, as it could be supported by other factors, such as worries about inflation, and generally a rather bullish momentum. My point is that geopolitical events usually exert only a short-lived impact on gold, as they don’t affect the true fundamentals of the gold market. These will be shaped by the inflation path and the Fed’s reaction to it. Third, the upcoming weeks could be hot for the gold market. Don’t let emotions affect your investments. Remember the initial stage of the coronavirus pandemic? We all felt fear then – but it wasn’t the best investment advisor. War is also terrifying, but so far the conflict is limited to Ukraine and Russia and we don’t know yet whether the invasion will really escalate into a full-blown, bloody war. Be calm and stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
USDJPY, XAUUSD And Standard And Poor 500 Recovering After Noticeable Fluctuations

USDJPY, XAUUSD And Standard And Poor 500 Recovering After Noticeable Fluctuations

John Benjamin John Benjamin 25.02.2022 09:04
USDJPY bounces off daily support The US dollar jumps as traders seek safe haven assets over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The pair struggled for bids after it turned away from the double top (116.20) and has been grinding down a falling trend line. However, the daily support at 114.40 has proved to be a solid demand area by keeping February’s rebound intact. Strong momentum above the trend line and 115.20 forced sellers out of the game and would attract more purchasing power. A close above 116.20 would extend the rally towards 117.00 XAUUSD seeks support Gold whipsawed as markets await the Western response to the invasion of Ukraine. The rally accelerated after it broke above last June’s high at 1912. Momentum trading pushed the price to September 2020’s highs (1975) before reversing its course. 1880 is a fresh support after intraday buyers took profit. As sentiment shifts to the bullish side, the current pullback combined with a depressed RSI could trigger a bargain-hunting behavior. Renewed buying frenzy may send the metal to the psychological level of 2000. US 500 lacks support The S&P 500 weakens as investors fear spillover from the conflict in Ukraine. A break below the daily support at 4280 further put the bulls on the defensive. Last May’s lows, near 4040, are the next target as liquidation continues. The index may have entered the bear market as the sell-off could speed up in the coming weeks. On the daily chart, the RSI’s double-dip in the oversold area may offer a temporary relief. 4350 is the first hurdle ahead and the bears may look to fade any rebound amid soured sentiment.
Strong reversal should lead to another leg up

Strong reversal should lead to another leg up

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 27.02.2022 20:32
Looking back, gold has been rising nearly US$225 since December 15th, 2021, and US$195 since 28th of January 2022. Especially the strong rally over the last four weeks caught many by surprise. But our price target of US$1,975 was hit exactly last Thursday, when all other markets plunged in anticipation of strong sanctions against Russia. Markets then strongly recovered on Friday on hopes of weak sanctions and a potential postponement of the rate hikes by the FED. Over the weekend, however, NATO and its partners announced SWIFT sanctions against Russia. Monday will therefore likely be another wild and volatile day in the markets. But “peak fear” has probably been reached last Thursday (at least for now). Give peace a chance ðŸ•Šï¸ÂðŸ‡·ðŸ‡ºðŸ•Šï¸ÂðŸ‡ºðŸ‡¦ðŸ•Šï¸Â Fundamentally, banning Russian banks from SWIFT payments will lead to Russia stop selling oil & natural gas. Russian oil represents about 9% of global output and there’s an energy shortage already. The result will be a global depression and more inflation at the same time. And that would be the best-case scenario, cause as quickly as things unfold, WWIII is no longer an unthinkable horror scenario. We can only hope that successful peace negotiations will take place as soon as possible. In these uncertain times, gold should remain supported. As geopolitical events unfold, another sharp spike higher is always possible. A direct transition back into the correction, which began in August 2020, is unlikely. It would rather take much more time (at least a few months), before gold could drift back towards significantly lower grounds. Our maximum downside remains at US$1,625 for the potential 8-year cycle low, due in 2023 or 2024. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2022. On its weekly chart, gold continues to be in an uptrend. The breakout above the downtrend line led to a sharp advance over the last two weeks. The stochastic oscillator still has a buy signal in place. And with the sharp reversal/pullback since reaching $1,975, gold did close the week right at its upper Bollinger Band (US$1,889). Since the upper Bollinger Band has been bent upwards, gold will now have more room to continue its rally to the upside over the coming two to four weeks. However, the stochastic oscillator is about to reach its overbought zone. Comparing its behavior to the last 16 months, we have to assume that gold will have a hard time nesting up in the overbought zone for long. Hence, corrective price action is on the horizon. Overall, the weekly chart is still bullish and points to another attack towards US$1,950 to US$1,975. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 27th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 27th, 2022. The daily chart captures the sharp rally as well as the reversal and bloodbath in the gold market over last two days. So far, gold has given back nearly 50% of the rally since January 28th (from US$1,780 up to US$1,975 and then down to US$1,878). The stochastic oscillator has lost its embedded status and momentum is bearish now. Should gold want to correct further towards the 61.8%-retracement ($1,854), it will likely also test the former resistance and breakout level around US$1,840 to US$1,845. Such a pullback towards US$1,840 to US$1,855 has certain probability, but would also offer a very interesting long entry again. Since the short-term timeframes like the 1- and 4-hour charts are getting oversold, gold alternatively might find support between US$1,870 and US$1,880 over the next few days already. To summarize, the daily chart is currently bearish and patience is needed. But Gold I swell supported and should find support either between US$1,840 to US$1,855 or US$1,870 and US$1,880. Afterwards it should start another leg up. Conclusion: Strong reversal should lead to another leg up Last week’s price action was certainly not for the faint of heart. A daily gain of over +4% is extremely rare in the gold market and was immediately undone upon COMEX opening. The sharp reversal does not look too good, but it does not yet mean the end of the rally. Expect some more downside or at least sideways consolidation. Usually, such a sharp rally does not collapse immediately. Hence, once the bulls have sorted themselves, we expect another rise above US$1,900 with a minimum price target of US$1,950. An overshot towards US$2,000 is still possible, but now a bit less likely. Once this next attack will have failed, we assume the start of a corrective wave down somewhere in spring, which could last well into early to midsummer. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 27th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Natural Gas, Oil, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
S&P 500 (SPX) And Credit Markets With Moves Up Finally, Bitcoin (BTC) Seems To Be Vigilant

S&P 500 (SPX) And Credit Markets With Moves Up Finally, Bitcoin (BTC) Seems To Be Vigilant

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.02.2022 16:00
S&P 500 didn‘t correct much intraday, and the risk-on turn has continued unabated with value pulling ahead sharply – unlike the day before when the revesal came about because of tech. The dust is settling in the market‘s mind, VIX has indeed moved and the dollar weakened noticeably. That was the subject of Friday‘s analysis – the disappearing safe haven premium over many assets such as gold, crude oil and Treasuries (Treasuries though kept their cool the most, not losing the focus on Fed‘s tightening). Risk-on appetite returned to stocks with a vengeance, and market breadth has significantly improved – within the context of the ongoing correction, must be said. While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes. Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Sharp S&P 500 upswing on solid volume – the gains can continue but their pace would slow down. Negative sentiment is departing stocks as the existing bad news has been priced in. The pendulum is swinging the other way now. Credit Markets HYG is confirming the stock market upswing, but bonds are remaining more cautious overall – it‘s that the focus would shift over the coming 2 weeks again to the Fed. The yield spread keeps compressing and the 2-year bond didn‘t stop pressuring the Fed. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals have corrected a little but the upswing goes on – GDX performance is a good omen. The decline in prices wasn‘t sold heavily into anyway – we‘re still moving higher next as the rate raising cycle start is soon here. Crude Oil Crude oil bears are totally unconvincing, proving that the prior price upswing was about way more than geopolitical uncertainty – the chart remains strongly bullish, and we have higher to run still. Copper Copper upswing is indeed taking time to develop, but commodities strength remains in spite of the daily setback, which just illustrates the risk-on euphoria in stocks. The commodities upleg hasn‘t run its course, and the red metal would join in. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are refusing to extend Sunday‘s decline – while the worst appears to be over, the short-term direction can turn out in both directions. I‘m though slightlly favoring the bulls. Summary S&P 500 turnaround continues, and price gains are frontrunning the events on the ground. The upswing is vulnerable – to a consolidation at most as a full reversal would require fresh setbacks, including in Asia. Risk-on trades have the momentum, and credit markets agree. It certainly looks like a good time to take advantage of the precious metals and commodities discounts as momentary optimism in the markets that has nothing to do with the progress on inflation. Further, we‘re still in the real economy slowdown phase, and the Fed hasn‘t even started hiking yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bitcoin (BTC) To US Dollar (USD) And BTCUSD/XAUUSD Shown In The Charts

Bitcoin (BTC) To US Dollar (USD) And BTCUSD/XAUUSD Shown In The Charts

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.03.2022 12:27
Bitcoin, buy the news   With news, volatility is typically increasing, and a larger volume of transactions is at play. For amateurs, data evaluation in a turmoiled market environment generally results in procrastination of execution, meaning no trading or chasing trades. Professionals find necessary liquidity to exit a trade or use volatility to fade moves on less risk for entries. Last week’s invasion of Ukraine was no different. Only those prepared with a plan were able to position themselves in bitcoin. Bitcoin, daily chart, the giveaway: Crypto markets, daily charts as of February 28th, 2022. A giveaway was a widespread larger supply zone throughout the crypto sector (green horizontal lines on the daily charts above), and preset buy entries in the crypto space were getting triggered. Inter-market relationships stack the odds of placing a successful trade.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, entry target zone within reach: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 28th, 2022. With our entry target range nearly reached (see our previous chart book release), we were ready to act, knowing a possible larger time frame tuning point was a possibility. You might argue that the price has not penetrated the entry zone. Still, at a closer look, you will identify that due to exuberant volume on the surprise news day, the supply zone values had changed to provide significant support right at the rim of our initially planned zone. Charts need to be consistently updated to stay accurate! Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, weekly chart, another edge stacked: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2022. Precisely on the day in question, we also got a hedge rotational “buy signal” for bitcoin versus gold on the weekly chart. Consequently, this signal provided another inter-market relationship edge that supported our decision-making for aggressive entry. What we can see on the chart above that compares bitcoin with gold is that since institutional money has become a massive part of bitcoin holdings, these more significant funds rotate their money in and out between gold and bitcoin. Following the yellow line, one can see prices being high to buy bitcoin with gold at double top and acquiring bitcoin at a double bottom is a way to take advantage of cheaper bitcoin prices in relationship to gold. For us, a good reason to assume that gold holders might switch to bitcoin for the next foreseeable timeframe, to hedge their wealth preservation portfolios. Bitcoin, daily chart, profits booked and room to go: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2022. The weekly chart above shows four more reloads within the last five days. All trades have been risk mitigated with our quad exit strategy. Consequently, the remaining position was market money at no risk to us. We posted daily calls to prepare interested parties for possible reentries. Prices have already advanced by nearly 30% from the lows. This preparedness and merely following rules allow ending up being positioned and not dependent on whether a turning point matures. Even in a negative outcome, profits have been made. With a bit of luck, these remainder positions can go a long way and provide substantial additional profits. In addition, one is positioned early before a trend is even established. Bitcoin, buy the news: We must confront opinion-forming debates led by ego (the need to be right). We use reconditioning behavior to achieve best results. The goal in mind is to “erase” intuitive responses and an execution time delay leading to sub-par entry timing. Consequently, consistent extracting of profits from the market is possible. At Midas Touch, we have made it our business to share our entry and exit timing and their underlying principles in our free Telegram channel to empower our clients and followers to become successful self-directed investors.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Recovers Slowly

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Recovers Slowly

Jing Ren Jing Ren 02.03.2022 09:06
XAUUSD grinds rising trendline Gold recovered after the first round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia ended without a resolution. The precious metal found support over 1885. The rising trendline from early February indicates that the general direction is still up despite a choppy path. The previous peak at 1974 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could send the price to the psychological level of 2000. The downside risk is a fall below the said support. Then 1852, near the 30-day moving average, would be the bulls’ second line of defense. AUDUSD attempts reversal The Australian dollar steadied after the RBA warned that energy prices could flare up inflation. A break above the previous high (0.7285) shows buyers’ strong commitment despite sharp liquidation. Sentiment swiftly recovered and may attract more buying interest. An overbought RSI may temporarily limit the upside. And the bulls could be waiting for a pullback to accumulate. 0.7220 is the closest support. A bullish close above the January peak at 0.7310 could initiate a reversal in the medium-term and extend gains towards 0.7400. CADJPY bounces back The Canadian dollar clawed back losses after the Q4 GDP beat expectations. A jump above 90.70 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, opening the door for a potential reversal. 91.10 is the next resistance and its breach could propel the loonie to this year’s high at 92.00. On the downside, the psychological level of 90.00 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. Otherwise, a drop to 89.30 would suggest that sentiment remains fragile. In turn, this would place the pair under pressure once again.
Gold Price Chart - Knights of Gold Report: 06/03/22

Gold Price Chart - Knights of Gold Report: 06/03/22

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 07.03.2022 08:37
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/rAk6jFd4-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ In last weeks KOG Report we suggested we were expecting some bearish movement on Gold as there was a lot of supply below that we thought would need a visit. We did say due to the news we would need to keep the bullish momentum in mind and if the price and if price found support around the 1885 level we would be looking to long the market into the 1914 and above that 1930-35 levels. We expected a reaction at the 1935 level where we wanted to test the short, however, based on the market structure and the daily KOG updates we decided to sit out with shorting the market to let the bullish move play out. We then identified our target area on the NFP report where the first target has been hit, but we still have a target slightly higher that we would like to see achieved. So what can we expect in the week ahead? We’re going to keep it short this week and stick with the NFP chart we shared on Friday. What we’re looking during the course of this week is for our 1980-85 target that we mentioned a few weeks ago to be completed at some point and then for the price to attempt some form of bearish retracement into the first target of 1950, 1935 and below that 1920 initially. A break of 1920 and its likely we will see our lower target of 1885 completed. All charts are extremely bullish with the 3 month chart showing a trend that can complete around the 2085 level which we have to keep in mind. There is a lot of news still driving the market aggressively into these levels which is making if difficult for position traders to hold long term unless they’re using huge stop losses. So we’re going to play the defence again this week and take it level to level with the bias for this week being the short trade! So we’ll trade this with two scenarios: Scenario 1: The price comes down during the early sessions and finds support around the 1960-55 level, we feel this price point would represent a good opportunity to take the long trade into that 1980-85 level and potentially above! At that 1980-85 level we would like to see a reaction on price and based on strong resistance we may test that short we are looking for. Scenario 2: Price opens as it did last week with bullish volume from the get go. We will look for resistance at the 1980-85 level or there abouts and we feel that price point would represent an opportunity to short the market back down into the 1960, 1950 and below that 1930 levels. If we get this right again this week there are a lot of pips to be captured but your lots sizes are really important. Allocate a lot size that allows you to remain flexible with the choppy price action and the volatile swings that the markets are creating. Always have a risk strategy in place and you will make money in these markets. We’ll update you during the week as we usually do. As always, trade safe. KOG
We Will Probably Review All Of Inflation Indicators Around The World This Weekend

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates - 07.03.2022

John Benjamin John Benjamin 07.03.2022 09:21
USDCHF struggles for support USDCHF The US dollar softens as the Fed may settle for a less aggressive rate hike agenda. The recent sideways action is a sign of the market’s indecision. Sellers’ previous attempts to push below 0.9150 have met some buying interest in this demand zone. A definitive breakout may send the pair to January’s lows around 0.9100. Then the path of least resistance could be down, ending a three-month-long consolidation. 0.9230 is the immediate resistance and 0.9290 is a major hurdle before the greenback could bounce back. XAUUSD breaks higher XAUUSD Gold rallies as investors’ flight to safety continues. The bulls have tempered their aggressiveness after the initial surge. The latest pullback has been an opportunity to accumulate against a bullish backdrop. Price action continues to climb along the rising trendline which suggests that the direction is still up. A break above the psychological level of 2000 would bring in more momentum traders. In fact, that would send the price to August 2020’s high at 2075. Between the trendline and 1930 there is a key demand zone. GER 40 drops to a fresh low GER 40 The Dax 40 plunges for fears of stagflation in the eurozone. The index has ventured further into the bearish territory after it broke below March 2021’s lows around 14000. The liquidation is yet to end as sentiment remains downbeat. A break below the psychological level of 13000 would trigger a new round of sell-off to 12000. The RSI’s oversold situation from both daily and hourly charts may cause a limited bounce if short-term traders take profit. 13500 is the first resistance ahead and could attract more trend followers.  
S&P 500 Is Likely Recovering, Gold (XAUUSD), Copper And Crude Oil (WTI) Close To Out Of The Park Play

S&P 500 Is Likely Recovering, Gold (XAUUSD), Copper And Crude Oil (WTI) Close To Out Of The Park Play

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.03.2022 15:47
S&P 500 recovered most of the intraday downside, and in spite of value driving the upswing, there is something odd about it. Tech barely moved higher during the day, and the heavyweights continue being beaten similarly to biotech compared to the rest of healthcare. The key oddity though was in the risk-off posture in bonds, and the Treasuries upswing that Nasdaq failed to get inspired with. If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come. Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback. Which stocks would do best then? Here are my key 4 tips – energy, materials, in general value, and smallcaps. But the true winners of the stagflationary period is of course going to be commodities and precious metals. And that‘s where the bulk of recent gains that I brought you, were concentrated in. More is to come, and it‘s gold and silver that are catching real fire here. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 setback was repelled on Friday, but I‘m looking for the subsequent upswing to fizzle out – we still have to go down in Mar, and that would be the low. Credit Markets HYG is clearly on the defensive, and TLT reassessing rate hike prospects. This doesn‘t bode well for the S&P 500 bulls. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are doing great, and will likely continue rising no matter what the dollar does – my Friday‘s sentence is still fitting today. I‘m looking for further price gains – the upleg has been measured and orderly so far. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing still hasn‘t lost steam, and still can surprise on the upside. Slowdown in the pace of gains, or a sideways consolidation, would be the healthy move next. Jittery nerves can calm down a little today. Copper Copper isn‘t rising as fast as other base metals, which are one of the key engines of commodities appreciation. The run is respectable, and happening on quite healthy volume – if we don‘t see its meaningful consolidation soon, the red metal would be finally breaking out of its long range here. Bitcoin and Ethereum While I wasn‘t expecting miracles Friday or through the weekend, cryptos are stabilizing, and can extend very modest gains today and tomorrow. Summary S&P 500 is likely to rise next, only to crater lower still this month. It may even undershoot prior Thursday‘s lows, but I‘m not looking for that to happen. The sentiment is very negative already, the yield curve keeps compressing, commodities are rising relentlessly, and all we got is a great inflation excuse / smoke screen. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and supply chain disruptions and other geopolitical events can and do exacerbate that. Just having a look at the rising dollar when rate hike prospects are getting dialed back, tells the full risk-off story of the moment, further highlighted by the powder keg that precious metals are. And silver isn‘t yet outperforming copper, which is something I am looking for to change as we go by. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
CFD Update: Three Markets to Watch as Markets Open Today

CFD Update: Three Markets to Watch as Markets Open Today

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 07.03.2022 12:08
Markets have started the week with further heavy selling as the conflict in Ukraine continued to intensify. From Friday’s crazy reports of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant being shelled to broken ceasefires and trapped residents unable to evacuate. Today’s reports suggested Russia had agreed to stop fighting on their side to finally allow trapped residents to evacuate to safe zones.  Oil and Gold have been headline movers, but it hasn’t been all about them. We have continued to watch stock drops on stock indexes. European indexes and Asian indexes have been particularly hard hit, with several losing over 15% in the last two monthly bars, including this month. Oil has not only been a flyer as the world watches Russia and Ukraine, but the energy shock has sent oil prices flying. WTI has seen over 40% added in the last two months, and the rally has been running for the last four months straight. Oil jumped to 13-year highs today as reports mentioned the U.S and Europe could look at banning Russian crude imports.  Getting back to stock indexes, the oil rally has also contributed to the decline. Oil at these highs ramps up inflation fears, that are already running hot and start to put growth pressure back on economies that are just beginning to come out of the pandemic. Business requires energy. High energy costs make business more expensive and can be passed onto the consumer, increasing the cost of goods.  Surging inflation has mainly been a US and European issue, but if it ramped up all over the world, many economies might not be ready to start raising rates to combat it. For instance, Australia’s building industry has been kept alive by a super-hot housing market. Rising rates could cool off the housing market and put pressure on the building and trade industries. One major building group just failed. Higher rates and reduced business could show cracks in more companies.  We’ve picked a few markets out to take a closer look.  Euro Stoxx 50 The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 20% to its low. Europen shares, especially German shares, have been hit hard by the conflict in Ukraine. Sellers have cut close half of the rally seen from 2020. Today sellers retraced all gains made in 2021 after hitting 3381.  Hang Seng Index This one went a little under the radar, but I saw the damage that has been done to this index and was quite surprised. 14% has been wiped off the index in the last two months and the price today slipped below the 2020 low. When you compare it to the JPN225 that’s where the shock comes from, as it has dropped 8%. Gold Gold has been a significant talking point during the crisis. Good old Gold went straight back to safe mode as traders looked for a safe bet in a time of crisis. The rally in the last two months has been rather explosive. Buyers have added over 11% to the value, and we saw $2000USD touched today. Price now sits 3.72% away from retesting highs set back in 2020 in the heart of the pandemic. Another factor that might be adding to the appreciation. Reposts suggest that Gold could be being used to pay for oil. This is interesting as oil has always been paid for in USD. But with Russia partially locked out of SWIFT and the Fed blocking their USD transactions, Gold could be a new payment option moving forward.  Uncertainty presents Volatility Currently, our margin levels remain unchanged across all instruments and we offer one of the best swap conditions on key instruments such as Gold. Make the most out of market movements right now with Eightcap. For more information on market updates and our swap rates, please contact our award-winning customer service team. The post CFD Update: Three Markets to Watch as Markets Open Today appeared first on Eightcap.
GoldViewFX - Market UPDATE- LEVELS & TARGETS FOR THE WEEK

GoldViewFX - Market UPDATE- LEVELS & TARGETS FOR THE WEEK

GoldViewFX Ideas GoldViewFX Ideas 14.03.2022 10:55
// GoldViewFX - Market UPDATE- LEVELS & TARGETS FOR THE WEEK by Goldviewfx on TradingView.com Hey Everyone,We had an awesome finish to the week taking exits on the buys at 2006 Goldturn and then we had a rejection, which saw price retrace down to the full swing range at 1958, see below; The swing range gave another opportunity to buy at 1958 for exit before the next Goldturn at 1979 close to 200 pip movement. My trading plan on the chart together with the strategy to only buy 20 to 30 pips at a time always gives the opportunity to avoid getting stuck in the swings and always allowing better and safer entries strategically sitting behind the trend allowing me to capture without getting stuck. This skill I have acquired over time and requires a good trading psychology and stamina to wait patiently for these sweet entries.We remain Bullish and whilst we had some movement down, we just need to zoom out of the charts to see the Bullish structure, please see below; This zoomed out 1H chart setup shows the clear Bullish structure and trend and the current swings fall within the Goldturn trendline. This charts also shows room for retracement down to 1969, which we will keep in mind while takin buys from support levels or signals.End of week retracement down has bought us back into the price range of 1958 to 2006. Therefore we have moved our swing range down to 1935 for good measure to be able to manage the swing below the range. Due to the volatile market conditions this will help us to manage any premature exits and SL hunting and will allow me to risk manage the movement within these extended boundaries outside the range. Any tests on these strong support levels will allow me to take 20 to 30 pip buys and get out safely even if the volatility pushes the price against our anticipated direction.We have an immediate TARGET of 1995, which was activated with the EMA5 Goldturn break and close above 1979. Lets see how this plays out. Please note I will be observing both the immediate retracement level 1969 and swing range of 1935 throughout the week, as part of my risk/money management.As always, we will keep you all updated with any changes to our plan and targets. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us.GoldViewFXXAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
The Situation Around The World Force  Investors To Keep Precious Metals In Portfolios

Time To Look At Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) - Market Update

GoldViewFX Ideas GoldViewFX Ideas 16.03.2022 10:40
// GoldViewFX - MARKET UPDATE by Goldviewfx on TradingView.com Trend Analysis Chart Patterns Technical Indicators Gold XAUUSD buysetup sellsetup forexsignals forexanalysis Contains image    Hey Everyone,What a volatile few days of trading, we hope everyone traded safe and managed risk during these volatile conditions.We started our day with a signal TP and then sat back and let the price tank for us to asses how price action reacted to our Goldturn levels. Over the last month we have shared how we rode the Bull run to the top from behind, which allows us to take a safe exit from the Bull run when the market turns. We managed any buys from the top by measuring retracements and getting out early using our Goldturns.1906 Goldturn support has held for now with a candle wick out, which followed with price hitting 1922 with EMA5 breaking and closing above 1922 leaving a target open for 1935, we also have 1922 broken down with EMA5 leaving a target to 1906 again, TARGETS open both ways. Two gaps left open to fill, 1906 being the most recent and current active gap.The more significant challenge for us to keep an eye on is a break below 1906 with EMA5. This will open 1888, which opens the lower range, changing the Bullish structure. The range shift has happened but driven by news and FOMC, therefore it is too early determine a change in the Bullish structure, however a break below 1906 will change our plans to buy dips and we will look to start shorting from spikes.Our 4H chart has already started shaping up with a Bearish setup with SWING range and level identified. See below; As always we will keep you all updated with any changes to our plans and we hope you find our open transparent sharing and reviewing of changes to our ideas helpful. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!GoldViewFXXAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
KOG Report – FOMC, what can we expect on Gold?

KOG Report – FOMC, what can we expect on Gold?

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 16.03.2022 20:02
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/E41DqfO0-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT-FOMC/ FOMC – 16/03/22 This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to use the 1H chart for todays FOMC Report and will say that we’ll stick with this for the remainder of the sessions, unless anything changes. As usual we’ll give our daily updates and levels with our latest thoughts and ideas. We can see the market reacting to any news coming out of Russia/Ukraine which is causing traders difficulty in trying to swing trade this to the upside. We expecting this to give a push up at some point, whether that’s today or not remains to be seen. The key levels here are 1889 and 1870 below with the higher levels being 1937-40 and above that the 1950-60 level which would fill the imbalance. So as usual we’ll look at this with 2 scenarios in mind with our bias being to the upside at the moment! Scenario 1: They push the price down, we’ll wait for the levels of 1880 and breaking that 1860-65 before testing the long trade back up to target the 1920-30 price point initially. We feel it will go higher if it comes back up so we’ll look to protect any trades we get good entries on and take partials along the way. We have a KOG target at 1885 which we’re not far from so there’s a chance we may hit that. Scenario 2: They push the price up, we will only be looking for extreme key levels in this scenario to short the market. There is a chance they will want to test at least that 1950-60 level so we’ll wait there to short the market back down. It’s facing difficult and extreme market conditions which are being driven by fear. We’ve maintained we will take it easy and trade this level to level which has worked very well for us this month. What we don’t want to do is get stuck in trades if this decides to move and give any profits back to the market. For that reason we would say please trade this safely, reduce your lots sizes and give yourself time to think about your entry and exit. Always have a risk strategy in place and if you’re not comfortable with it please stay out. Cash is also a position, the markets won’t be like this forever. There is of course the case that this is likely priced in and we don’t see much movement so please also keep that in mind. It all depends on the question and answer session which will be after the release. As always, trade safe. KOG
XAUUSD After Fed Decision, NZDUSD And CADJPY Climbs

XAUUSD After Fed Decision, NZDUSD And CADJPY Climbs

Jing Ren Jing Ren 17.03.2022 08:15
XAUUSD stabilizes Gold struggles as the Fed maps out aggressive tightening. The precious metal has given up all its gains from the previous parabolic rise, which suggests a lack of commitment to support the rally. The price is testing the origin of the bullish breakout at 1907 which coincides with the 30-day moving average. An oversold RSI attracted some buying interest. 1961 is the hurdle ahead before a rebound could materialize. Further down, 1880 is key support on the daily chart and its breach could reverse the course in the weeks to come. NZDUSD attempts rebound The New Zealand dollar found support from a rebound in commodity prices. The pair saw solid bids in the demand zone around 0.6725 and right over the 30-day moving average. A bullish RSI divergence showed a deceleration in the pullback, which would have caught buyers’ attention in this congestion area. A close above 0.6800 has prompted short-term sellers to cover and leave the door open for a rebound. 0.6870 is the last major resistance and a bullish breakout could propel the kiwi past the recent peak at 0.6920. CADJPY breaks key resistance The Canadian dollar shot higher after February’s CPI beat expectations. A break above last October’s high at 93.00 could be an ongoing signal to end a 5-month long consolidation. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area may temporarily hold the bulls back. As sentiment turns overwhelmingly upbeat, buyers may be eager to jump in at a discounted price. The supply-turned-demand zone near 91.60 is an important level to safeguard the breakout. The psychological level of 94.00 could see resistance.
Precious Metals: What Can We Expect From Gold In The Near Future?

20/03/22 KOG Report – The week ahead for Gold

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 20.03.2022 18:12
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/bgv5PchS-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ KOG Report: In last weeks KOG Report we suggested we wanted to see the price test the lower support region to give us a good entry for the long, which we got. What we didn’t get though was that aggressive push to the upside, instead FOMC moved the price towards the 1950 level giving traders over 300pips on the move. We managed to trade the longs and the shorts in Camelot with a total of 18 targets completed last week, which was a fantastic result for Excalibur. In all we played the defensive on the markets trading this the KOG level to level way making sure we were not over exposing ourselves. So what can we expect in the week ahead? Something is telling us there is a big move on the way and its going to catch a lot of traders out! What we will say is that we will be looking for extreme resistance levels on this to add to the short positions we’re holding from above. That’s not to say we won’t be going long; we will take long trades into immediate resistance levels. We can see am immediate resistance level at the 1930 level and above that around 1945. That 1945 level is important for as long as the price remains below that level its likely we will see some lower targets being achieved in Gold in the coming week. On the downside we have the key level here of 1890-80, that’s where we will be waiting this week to go long on the market. We’re not concerned and don’t want to get involved in the immediate range unless we’re taking quick scalping trades level to level using Excalibur to guide us. So, we will look for the following scenarios on Gold this week: Scenario 1: Price opens, pushes to the upside and finds resistance at the 1930-35 level, we feel this level would represent an opportunity to short the market back down into the immediate support levels of 1910, 1903 and below that 1895-90. We will be waiting just below to take a long position to target the 1930, 1940 and above that 1960 level. IF we reach 1950 we will take a majority of our trade of the table and let the rest run with the stop to entry. This will be a great swing trade if it works out! Scenario 2: Price opens negative, we have an Excalibur target just below around the 1910 level, we would expect a potential test on that wick or just below it. We will wait for our support levels of 1902, 1885-80, this is where we will want to test the long trade into the levels we have mentioned above! Again, around the 1940-50 level we will take a majority of the trade of the table and leave the stop at entry with an open target above. What we will be looking for is resistance above where we will want to short the market again. Its been a difficult month for traders with a lot of news driving the markets, the candles look small but the pip capture is very tempting for traders who are trading large lots. The market knows this and will create the swings and choppy price action to make sure its not as easy as it looks. Try not to be roped into the orchestration. We’re still playing the defensive here, even if that means we continue to do so for another month. We would rather trade a natural market than trade in the volatility being created by the fundamentals and geopolitics. Hope this helps traders, as usual we will be updating the analysis, levels and charts as we progress throughout the week. We’ve been doing these reports and analysis a long time, please do give us a like on our ideas, it does motivate us to keep going. As always, trade safe. KOG
Precious Metals: What Can We Expect From Gold In The Near Future?

Price Of Gold Charts: GoldViewFX - Market Review - Updated Levels & Targets

GoldViewFX Ideas GoldViewFX Ideas 21.03.2022 11:22
// GoldViewFX - MARKET REVIEW - UPDATED LEVELS & TARGETS$ by Goldviewfx on TradingView.com Hey Everyone,This is our updated 4H chart levels with the most up to date 4H chart Goldturns.We can see a break at 1940, which opened target to 1896, which was HIT perfectly. If EMA5 continued and broke 1896 we would see the lower levels open up. 1896 was rejected with strong support. We saw price go back to challenge 1940 but no break.We may see another challenge at 1896 but remain Bullish towards 1940 again, as we have an outstanding target at 1958 and the fact that 1896 was supported, it sets the price up to challenge the Goldturn channel again in stages to 1995. If this channel is not tested and broken in the coming weeks then we will see 1896 break below for lower targets.The 4H chart setup remains Bullish above 1896 and therefore I am confident in taking buys from support levels and taking exits of 20 to 30 pips to avoid swings.1H CHART UPDATE The 1H chart had a break at 1935 opening 1922 which was HIT perfectly. We are now looking for EMA5 to cross 1922 with candle body close to open another challenge to 1906. A failure to break this level will see price head towards the upper targets again, as we have a gap at 1958, which was left open from a EMA5 break and candle body close above 1935.We have a swing range of 1888, which is still supporting our Bullish setups and the rejection here last week only strengthened this level. We remain Bullish above 1888!As always we will keep you all updated with any changes to the structure and our setups. The markets are very volatile with news and events providing fuel for movement in both directions, therefore we must avoid getting too hung up trying to figure out where its going and focus more on trading the levels in stages up or down.Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us. We really appreciate it!GoldViewFXXAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
The Situation Around The World Force  Investors To Keep Precious Metals In Portfolios

Gold Fluctuate - H1 Market Review & Updated Levels

GoldViewFX Ideas GoldViewFX Ideas 23.03.2022 09:11
// GoldViewFX - H1 MARKET REVIEW & UPDATED LEVELS by Goldviewfx on TradingView.com Hey Everyone,We had some movement down today testing the lower Goldturns, which we were expecting due to the swing range we identified in this volatile range. However we remain within the Bullish structure and just need to be patient with where we pick our entries in these volatile market conditions.Todays price action is a perfect example of waiting for the right entry. Normally we would take a buy entry from dips at support levels to ride up safely. However we had a open target from yesterday and because EMA5 broke yesterdays Goldturn high, we took a buy at the top. We quickly managed out of the buy and then took the entries from the drops, as part of our initial plan on buying dips. Second round of buys we took from the 1922 level, followed with entries from the 1911 Goldturn. Needless to say we covered the trade at the top and finished the day on profit!! This is trade and range management!I cannot emphasize how effective it has been for us to bank 20 to 30 pips at a time. This allowed us to take entries from dips and get out with profit before the next swing providing multiple entries and exits. Taking the entry and banking at 20 to 30 pips at a time gives us better odds in avoiding the swings. Every market condition requires us to adapt and change our style according to the new structure and applying the right framework for entry, exit, exposure and PIP capture is critical to trade successfully.We have updated the 1H chart levels with the most current Goldturn levels and will be trading this range between these levels. We are expecting 1928 as a target with some retracement close to 1917. Whilst we expect swings below, we can expect price re-test some of the upper 1900 levels in stages. Keep in mind the potential trading range from the DAILY CHART (see related post below).Tomorrow we will wait to see if 1917 holds to support buys or we get to test 1911 again; a break here will change our setup. This will be observed before taking positions.As always we will keep you all posted with any changes and keep everything as transparent as possible to give you all a true insight of a traders day to day journey from analysis to execution to trade management. Managing a profitable trade is easy, its how you manage a losing trade that sets you apart from the rest!!!!Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!GoldViewFXXAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
Price Of Gold Heading To High Levels Again? Is $2000 Possible To Reach Shortly?

Price Of Gold Heading To High Levels Again? Is $2000 Possible To Reach Shortly?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 25.03.2022 04:28
Looking at gold, buyers continue to push a case for a new rally higher. We saw the intense buying after Russia invaded Ukraine and the sell-off that followed last week. Was the selling a case of things becoming too overbought of? Could it be a case of buy the rumour sell the fact? Yes, we heard about talks and ceasefires, but the fighting didn’t stop. Our thoughts are that this could be an important indicator of where gold demand is truly at. The key driver has passed, and we saw the market react and then reverse. Currently, we are watching a new breakout from the consolidation that started on the 16th. Buyers stopped the selling and formed a range between 1916.50 and 1944. Yesterday price broke out of that range and continues to hold above that point today. A hold and continued move higher tells us that buyers are still in the market, and with continued momentum, we could see a new push to test resistance noted by the orange box at the 1992 area. Even if we see a pause at this area, if we continue to see new higher lows, we will look to see if buyers can continue the move. If we see a pullback to the orange box at 1940, this is also ok as long as buyers get price back above the range break. If we see a move by sellers that closes below the range bottom, we will be very suspect and could start to think that sellers are back in control. Gold D1 Chart The post CFD News: Gold, have bulls started a new move higher? appeared first on Eightcap.
GOLD – The week ahead from KOG

GOLD – The week ahead from KOG

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 27.03.2022 20:13
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/2YHOJMDX-XAUUSD-KOG-Report/KOG Report:In last weeks KOG Report we said we were expecting a big move on the horizon which may throw a lot of traders of course. Instead, we got majority of the week in the range and then a break just slightly above towards the end of the week. We got the push up into the 1930s price level which gave a great short into one of the targets we suggested being 1910. We managed to guide trades through the range and managed a fantastic week netting over 300pips on Gold alone. Not to mention the other pairs that hit targets at Camelot.So what can we expect in the week ahead?We’re going to keep it short this week with a plan to go long but, we want to see how the market opens. We have an area in mind which is around the 1985 price mark, but we want to see if this pushes up in the early sessions and tests that 1960-65 region first! We can see here that we have broken out of the range but only slightly, that previous resistance level has now become support, a strong test on that support is needed and this needs to hold for this to go higher and challenge that 1985 level as the first target and above that 1997. So we’ll trade this with two scenarios in mind.Scenario 1:Price come down on opening sessions and tests that lower support region which is also the top of the previous range between 1945-50. We don’t want the price to close and hold below this level, we want to see a quick visit and rejection here. IF we do get the support, we want then we will be looking to go long up towards the 1965 region first and above that 1985. The higher region and target of 1997 is where we want to see a reaction on price and depending on that reaction, we may test the short trade there! If we hold below that support level and it becomes resistance again we will be waiting lower around the 1930-25 price point where again we will look for support and attempt to go long. We will update you as we go along during the week.Scenario 2:Price pushes up into 1960-65. We want to see it resist here and then hold above the 1950 level. As long as we get that retest we will then attempt the long trade back up into those levels. This scenario only works on the retest as we don’t want to short for 100pips back down into major support. So please wait for confirmation on the trade. Again, breaking and closing below that level and we will wait lower to go long which we will update you on. Both these scenarios are effective if the price stays above the support level which was previous resistance. This week is going to be really important, it’s the end of the month, financial year and the quarter. There is going to be a lot of volume in the markets with institutions covering positions and wanting to close out of positions. That move we were anticipating last week which will throw traders off may happen this week. Please tread carefully and control your lot sizes, always have a risk strategy in place and allow yourself time to manage your position. Before we go, we would like to wish all the mothers a happy mothers day and all our followers a great end to the weekend. We’ll be back tomorrow with an update.As always, trade safe.KOG
The Situation Around The World Force  Investors To Keep Precious Metals In Portfolios

GoldViewFX - Market Review - Updated Levels & Targets - 28/03/22

GoldViewFX Ideas GoldViewFX Ideas 28.03.2022 09:27
// GoldViewFX - MARKET REVIEW - UPDATED LEVELS & TARGETS$ by Goldviewfx on TradingView.com Hello Followers,Hope everyone had a great weekend and ready for Market open.This is the updated Daily chart setup. We can see Gold found support above 1931 Goldturn, which was created last week and is the most recent Daily chart Goldturn support level and 1992 is the most recent Goldturn resistance level created. This now gives us a new Daily Chart Range of 1931 to 1992, which gives us a play range to manage buying dips on our lower time frames keeping the overall daily chart range in mind.We see 1992, as the overall daily chart target, which is gearing up now with the fresh Goldturn created at 1931 providing the momentum for EMA5 to cross above MA21. If we see this cross complete, it will give price the final push needed for the 1992 challenge. We also have an AXIS target at 2005, which is our longer range target on the DAILY CHART .HOURLY CHART This is our Hourly chart levels and targets. It will provide me the levels needed to buy from dips and to work the overall DAILY CHART range. We have 1958, 1966, as the immediate targets with a retracement range of 1945 and a SWING RANGE of 1935 to keep in mind to risk and money manage. EMA5 break above 1966 AXIS will open the upper levels and will also confirm 1976 TARGET.We remain Bullish and buying from support levels and banking 20 to 30 pips at a time to avoid any swing traps. As always we will keep you all updated with any changes to our setups and plans. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!GoldViewFXXAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
USDCHF - Swiss Franc Strengthens, XAUUSD Rebounces, Will UK100 Start To Gain Consequently?

USDCHF - Swiss Franc Strengthens, XAUUSD Rebounces, Will UK100 Start To Gain Consequently?

Jing Ren Jing Ren 30.03.2022 07:41
USDCHF tests support The US dollar edged lower as traders ditched its safe-haven appeal. The pair met strong support at 0.9260 over the 30-day moving average. A break above the immediate resistance at 0.9340 prompted short-term sellers to cover their positions, opening the door for potential bullish continuation. A break above 0.9370 could bring the greenback back to the 12-month high at 0.9470. 0.9260 is major support in case of hesitation and its breach could invalidate the current rebound. XAUUSD struggles for support Gold struggles as risk appetite returns amid ceasefire talks. A fall below 1940 forced those hoping for a swift rebound to bail out. On the daily chart, gold’s struggle to stay above the 30-day moving average suggests a lack of buying power. Sentiment grows cautious as the metal tentatively breaks the psychological level of 1900. A drop below 1880 could make bullion vulnerable to a broader sell-off to 1850. An oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters, but buyers need to lift offers around 1940 before they could expect a rebound. UK 100 heads towards recent peak The FTSE 100 continues upward as Russia promises to de-escalate. A bullish close above the origin of the February sell-off at 7550 has put the index back on track. Sentiment has become increasingly upbeat over a series of higher highs. The lack of selling pressure would send the index back to this year’s high at 7690. A bullish breakout may resume the uptrend in the medium term. As the RSI shot into the overbought zone, profit-taking could drive the price down temporarily and 7460 would be the closest support.
The Situation Around The World Force  Investors To Keep Precious Metals In Portfolios

GoldViewFX - XAUUSD - Price Update - 29/03/22

GoldViewFX Ideas GoldViewFX Ideas 30.03.2022 08:30
// GoldViewFX - Market UDPATE by Goldviewfx on TradingView.com Hey Everyone,We had our 1928 target HIT on the H1 chart last night with plenty of gaps left above and then price tanked fuelled by Geopolitics. We stayed out of positions and we let the market play out till it found support. Sometimes the best position to take in the market is no position and this was the perfect call for us today.I'm sharing this 4H CHART, which we posted before with the 4H GOLDTURN LEVELS. This chart shows EMA5 break with a candle body close leaving a gap to 1896 which was HIT perfectly also inline with the 4H chart swing range. This level of support was already highlighted, as a strong level and staying above this level keeps us within the Bullish structure.This now gives us confidence to continue with our plans on buying dips and only banking 20 to 30 pips at a time, in such volatile conditions, gives us a better chance to avoid swing traps. Waiting patiently for the right opportunity to ride the trend is key and knowing when to stay out should be part of everyones trading plan.We will now look for EMA5 to cross MA200 back up to provide the momentum needed for the 1940 challenge. A rejection here could see pressure for 1896 to be challenged and broken, we will be observing this closely and trading smaller LOTS to manage this risk.As always we will keep you all updated with any changes and in the mean time please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us.GoldViewFXXAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
Interaction Between Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) And Price Of Gold

Interaction Between Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) And Price Of Gold

FXStreet News FXStreet News 31.03.2022 16:21
Nonfarm Payrolls in US is forecast to increase by 490,000 in March. Gold is likely to react more significantly to a disappointing jobs report than an upbeat one. Gold's movement has no apparent connection with NFP deviation four hours after the release. Historically, how impactful has the US jobs report been on gold’s valuation? In this article, we present results from a study in which we analyzed the XAU/USD pair's reaction to the previous 20 NFP prints*. We present our findings as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) gets ready to release the March jobs report on Friday, April 1. Expectations are for a 490,000 rise in Nonfarm Payrolls following the 678,000 increase in February. *We omitted the NFP data for March 2021, which was published on the first Friday of April, due to lack of volatility amid Easter Friday. Methodology We plotted gold price’s reaction to the NFP release at 15 minutes, one hour and four hours intervals after the release. Then we compared the gold price reaction to the deviation between the actual NFP release result and the expected result. We used the FXStreet Economic Calendar for data on deviation as it assigns a deviation point to each macroeconomic data release to show how big the divergence was between the actual print and the market consensus. For instance, the August (2021) NFP data missed the market expectation of 750,000 by a wide margin and the deviation was -1.49. On the other hand, February’s (2021) NFP print of 536,000 against the market expectation of 182,000 was a positive surprise with the deviation posting 1.76 for that particular release. A better-than-expected NFP print is seen as a USD-positive development and vice versa. Finally, we calculated the correlation coefficient (r) to figure out at which time frame gold had the strongest correlation with an NFP surprise. When r approaches -1, it suggests there is a significant negative correlation, while a significant positive correlation is identified when r moves toward 1. Since gold is defined as XAU/USD, an upbeat NFP reading should cause it to edge lower and point to a negative correlation. Results There were 11 negative and nine positive NFP surprises in the previous 20 releases, excluding data for March 2021. On average, the deviation was -0.92 on disappointing prints and 0.65 on strong figures. 15 minutes after the release, gold moved up by $3.66 on average if the NFP reading fell short of market consensus. On the flip side, gold declined by $1.68 on average on positive surprises. This finding suggests that investors’ immediate reaction is likely to be more significant to a disappointing print. However, the correlation coefficients we calculated for the different time frames mentioned above don’t even come close to being significant. The strongest negative correlation is seen 15 minutes after the releases with the r standing at -0.48. One hour after the release, the correlation weakens with the r rising to -0.3 and there is virtually no correlation to speak of four hours after the release with the r approaching 0. Several factors could be coming into play to weaken gold’s correlation with NFP surprises. Several hours after the NFP release on Friday, investors could look to book their profits toward the London fix, causing gold to reverse its direction after the initial reaction. Additionally, US Treasury bond yields’ movements have been impacting gold’s action lately and a decline in the benchmark 10-year T-bond yield on an upbeat jobs report could make it difficult for the USD to gather strength against its rivals, limiting XAU/USD’s downside.  
The Gold Market Is Volatile, There Are Two Possible Developments

Price Of Gold Per Ounce - KOG Report – NFP (US Non Farm Payrolls). What to expect!

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 01.04.2022 13:31
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/fqxXg5WZ-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT-NFP/ This is our view for NFP today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re seeing the price move with in a tight range now with MAs starting to converge in preparation for the NFP release. We would strongly suggest you stay out of this one, there is potential today for the move we were expecting yesterday for end of financial year. We’re going to use the hourly chart for the illustration but we’re going to use the 4H chart for the levels. Reason for this is we again will be waiting for key extreme levels if we do decide to take a position. So, on the hourly we can see the immediate trend and a potential H&S in the making. The right shoulder is sitting around the 1940 level which may act as support, however, there is a level above which is around the 1950-55 price point where again there is liquidity waiting. So we will trade this with two scenarios in mind, for both we will be using the 4H levels on the hourly chart. Scenario 1: Price pushes to the upside, in the scenario we will be looking for the price to stay below the 1960 level. If we see rejection and resistance around the higher level we feel this would represent an opportunity to short the market towards the lower levels of 1930-35 and below that 1910. If we do take any entries we will be taking partials along the way as long as they’re in profit and protecting the trade. Scenario 2: They push the price downside, we will be looking for the first reaction around the 1910 region where we feel there will be some support. There is a chance this level will break to the downside if we come down here so we will wait for the lower levels of 1890-85 where we feel there will be am opportunity to go long. The range is big hence the levels are further apart. While Gold is moving 2-500pips a day and swinging wildly its too risky to trade the immediate levels on NFP unless you’re an experienced trader with an effective risk management strategy in place. This could all be an anti-climax and we hardly move, in which case we’re happy to sit tight. The market has been nice to us last month and we don’t want to give anything back so we shall remain on the defensive and maintain patience. As always, trade safe. KOG
EURUSD And XAUUSD Trade Lower Than Before. UK100 Gains Gradually

EURUSD And XAUUSD Trade Lower Than Before. UK100 Gains Gradually

Jing Ren Jing Ren 04.04.2022 07:34
EURUSD seeks support The US dollar rallied after March’s average hourly wages jumped by 5.6%. The euro came to a halt in the supply zone at the origin of the March sell-off (1.1180). A bearish RSI divergence pointed to softness in the rebound. A fall below 1.1120 then 1.1070 prompted buyers to bail out, further weighing on overall sentiment. 1.0980 at the base of the recent bullish impetus is major support. Its breach could invalidate the recovery and trigger a new round of sell-offs. The bulls need to clear 1.1120 to regain the upper hand. XAUUSD builds support Gold retreats as the US dollar finds support from a fall in the jobless rate. On the daily chart, price action still holds above the demand zone between 1890 and 1900 which is a sign of strong buying interest. A break above 1940 forced sellers out. This may also foreshadow a reversal. Sentiment would improve if the precious metal stays above 1915. A bullish close above 1960 could extend the rally to the psychological level of 2000. On the downside, 1890 is a critical level to maintain the bulls’ optimism. UK 100 consolidates gains The FTSE 100 treads water dragged by weaker energy stocks. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that the index could be back on track in the medium term. The intraday direction is still up despite its choppiness. A close above 7590 would extend the rally to this year’s high at 7690. Trend followers may see pullbacks as a bargain opportunity. The RSI’s oversold condition attracted some buying interest over 7460. A deeper correction would send the index to 7380 which coincides with the moving averages.
Are Bearish Times Coming? Gold To Fall And DXY To Rise?

Are Bearish Times Coming? Gold To Fall And DXY To Rise?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 05.04.2022 15:58
  Gold is still running on the war-fumes, but its last moves bring to mind only bearish associations. Worse yet, a rising dollar appeared on the horizon. On the technical front, we saw that the junior mining stocks moved higher in the first part of the session, but then declined and ended the day practically unchanged. Why did junior miners rally initially? Perhaps for technical reasons. They were moving higher in their immediate-term trend, and thus, it might have been necessary for them to reach a resistance level before they could return to their downtrend. Junior miners just found the resistance in the form of the declining line based on the previous March highs. After a tiny attempt to break above this line, the GDXJ declined and the breakout was invalidated, suggesting that the rally is over. Now, the above-mentioned resistance line appears to be the upper border of the triangle pattern, which might concern you because triangles are usually a “continuation pattern”. In other words, the move that preceded the triangle is usually the type of move that follows it. The preceding move higher was up, so the following move could be to the upside as well. However, for this to happen, junior miners would first need to confirm the breakout above the line, and we saw the opposite taking place yesterday – the breakout above the line was invalidated. If – instead – we see a decline below the lower border of the triangle, the pattern would likely be followed by a decline. Please note that I wrote “usually” and now “always” with regard to the bullish implications of triangles. If we look beyond the above chart, the bearish case is more justified than the bullish one. I don’t mean just the extremely bearish situation in gold’s long-term chart, where it’s clear that gold is repeating its 2011-2013 performance, with the recent top being analogous to what we saw in 2012. If it wasn’t for the Ukraine-war-tension-based rally, gold would have likely topped close to its current levels, which would be a perfect analogy to where it topped in 2012 – close to its preceding medium-term highs. The fact that the RSI indicator moved lower recently after being close to 70 indicates that the top is already behind us. If history is about to rhyme (and that’s very probable in my view), gold is likely to decline in a back-and-forth manner before it truly slides without looking back. Basically, that’s what we’ve been seeing recently. The recent consolidation is not a bullish development, but something in perfect tune with the extremely bearish pattern from 2012. I don’t mean “just” the above, because we see similar analogies in silver and gold stocks (the HUI Index), and we get other indications (of more short-term nature) from the USD Index and the general stock market. The technical picture of the S&P 500 index suggests that the final top and the initial corrective upswing are over. The general stock market closed the week below its February highs, which means that the small breakout above them was invalidated. This is a very bearish indication for the following weeks. Many more investors are likely to become aware of the new interest-rate-hike-driven medium-term bear market once the S&P 500 breaks to new 2022 lows. That’s when the decline is likely to accelerate, quite likely also in silver and mining stocks that are usually most vulnerable to stock market moves. Moreover, let’s keep in mind that the USD Index is likely to soar once again soon, triggering declines in the precious metals market. In my previous analyses, I commented on the USD Index in the following way: If we focus on the USD Index alone, we’ll see that yesterday’s decline was absolutely inconsequential with regard to changing the outlook for the USDX. It simply continues to consolidate after a breakout above the mid-2020 highs. Breakout + consolidation = increasing chances of rallies’ continuation. A big wave up in the USD Index is likely just around the corner, and the precious metal sector is likely to decline when it materializes. As the war-based premiums in gold and the USD appear to be waning, a high-interest-rate-driven rally in the USD is likely to trigger declines in gold. The correlation between these two assets has started to decline. When that happened during the last two cases (marked with orange), gold plummeted profoundly shortly thereafter. The USD Index rallied recently, once again clearly verifying the breakout above its mid-2020 high. This means that the USD Index is now likely ready to rally once again. Naturally, this has bearish implications for the precious metals sector. All in all, technicals favor a decline in the precious metals sector sooner rather than later. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
The AUD/USD Currency Pair Trading At Its Lowest Level Since Two Years, Hang Seng Index Was Flat

Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) KOG Report – FOMC – What’s to come!

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 06.04.2022 12:53
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/jSTfZpt9-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT-FOMC/ This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to keep it short for this report as we’re not really changing our plan from the KOG Report and daily analysis which has been shared here over the course of the week. We’ve already hit the higher level where we suggested shorting the market which gave a decent return on yesterday’s move. We are expecting the range to potentially break with hopefully an upside swoop on liquidity before testing the lower levels that are illustrated on the chart. We will be looking for the price to stay below the 1950-60 price point, the price region is 100pips because this is FOMC and being a high-volume event (usually), the market can surpass levels with aggressive spikes. So, we will look at this with two scenarios in mind with the bias being towards the move upwards first! Scenario 1: The price pushes up into that 1945-50 and above that 1955-60 price region, these areas we feel would represent an opportunity to short the market back down into the 1930, 1920 and below that 1903 price points initially. Once the entry is placed and in profit we will take partials along the way and protect the trade. Scenario 2: Price pushes down. In this scenario we will wait for the lower levels of 1885-7 and below that 1860-65 for the price to exhaust and then we feel this price points would represent an opportunity to go long on the market back up towards the 1910 and above that 1920 price points. This could again be an anti-climax like we've seen recently as these rate hikes have been priced in. What the market will be waiting for is the press conference which will be around 19:30 UK time where Powells responses can move the markets. In our opinion the best way to trade this is not to. Stay out until tomorrow, they will move the market to where they want to buy or sell it, that’s what we as traders should do to, wait for them to move the market, let it find its base and then think about taking the trade. Our immediate target level is around 1945 so we’re hoping this target is completed at some point today.
Precious Metals: What Can We Expect From Gold In The Near Future?

Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) The KOG Report – The week ahead for Gold!

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 10.04.2022 20:37
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/GQ9tyXwE-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ In last weeks KOG report we said we would like to see some bearish pressure on Gold as long as the price stayed below the 1960 region. We suggested that if the market opened and pushed to the upside we would be looking for the zones illustrated on last weeks report to hold and then we would be looking to go short. We wanted to see at least the 1910 level target completed, however, the market reached 1914 and then turned bullish again. We suggested during the week that we had a target of 1945 which you can see has now been achieved. So what can we expect in the week ahead? We’re going to keep this report shorter than usual as our plan hasn’t really changed from last week, only the potential regions for reaction have changed which we have updated on the chart. We’re going to say again that we’re not convinced with the bullish movement at the moment, our bias is still neutral, but we feel there is an opportunity to get in on a short trade to target the lower support levels below 1900! That’s not to say we’re not seeing this go up a bit more. So, we have two targets in mind for the week ahead, the above target of 1970-75 and a lower target area of around 1890-95. We will be looking to either go long from support to target the higher level or 1975 or be looking to short the market from the higher level of 1975 down into lower support levels. So we will look at this as usual with two scenarios in mind: Scenario 1: It would be ideal for the market to open and just push up a little to tap into that 1950 supply and face some resistance there. We are expecting a pullback into the regions of 1940, 1935 and potentially 1920. This is where we feel there will be an opportunity to exits any short trades and take the long entry into the higher resistance level of 1970-75 where we will again be looking to go short for the lower levels. Please note, breaking 1920 and staying below this level will take us lower into 1910. Scenario 2: Price opens and pushes towards the downside, we will be looking for support to hold first around the 1930-35 region, breaking this the lower price point is 1920. If we see strong support here we will be looking to go long into the higher resistance levels of 1970-75 where again we will be looking to go short. So in essence, there are two key levels we are looking at targeting, we either want to go long from below to target 1970-75 or we want to go short from above to target 1895. Based on the mildness of the breakout on Friday it is very possible that we see this now range again just to really frustrate traders before they actually make the move they want to. While it ranges we will be trading this level to level the KOG way. As usual, we will update the analysis throughout the week and keep you in sync with any changes. Please do hit the like button, give us a follow and leave a comment. Your support and following is very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
Vulnerable Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Has Slightly Increased

Vulnerable Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Has Slightly Increased

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 11.04.2022 11:45
Gold prices have continued to rise at the start of the week after hovering in the $1940 area as covid cases continue to increase in the Shanghai region despite the lockdown announced by the Chinese government. While there is a lack of major macroeconomic reports today, many investors will be keeping an eye on the geopolitical situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict which continues to cause uncertainty along with speeches from several FED members in the second part of the day. Furthermore, the US earnings season starts this week with major financial institutions being the first to report their results ahead of the Easter holiday after an unpredictable first quarter of 2022 which saw many impactful events across the world with oil and gold prices nearing their all time highs. Today, gold is trading around $1960 and could continue to be volatile throughout the week as it remains to be seen if it will be able to extend the upward move or if it will pullback once again.   UK GDP grows while production worries persist UK Gross domestic product grew by 0.1% in February 2022, following a 0.8% growth in January 2022 with services growing by 0.2% thanks to a noticeable increase for services in February 2022 which was mainly driven by tourism-related industries and which has now brought real GDP to 1.5% above its pre-coronavirus level. This is a good sign for the economy but was slightly offset by production, which fell by 0.6% and construction, which fell by 0.1%. While rising inflation continues to be a significant risk, impacting both businesses and consumers significantly, today's data could provide another incentive to the BOE to take further action after it already implemented several rate increases.
Intraday Market Analysis – NZD Attempts To Rebound

Intraday Market Analysis – NZD Attempts To Rebound

Jing Ren Jing Ren 13.04.2022 07:50
NZDUSD tests resistance The New Zealand dollar bounced back after the RBNZ raised its interest rates by 50bp. The pair came under pressure after hitting resistance near the psychological level of 0.7000. The kiwi then saw bids at 0.6810 near the base of a previous bullish breakout. A rally above the support-turned-resistance at 0.6900 may turn sentiment around. The next hurdle will be 0.6950. A fall below 0.6810 could trigger a sell-off towards the daily support at 0.6740. And that is an important level safeguarding the March rebound. Related article: ECB To Shock Markets In The Following Week!? US Dollar Rate Under Pressure As Well! XAUUSD bounces higher Gold rallied after US inflation in March came out less than market participants had expected. The metal’s medium-term uptrend is still intact as long as the price is above the major support at 1895. The recent consolidation could be an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate. A break above 1965 prompted some sellers to cover. This could also pave the way for a bullish reversal. 1990 is the next hurdle and its breach may send bullion to the March high at 2070. 1940 is the immediate support in case of a pullback. UK 100 seeks support The FTSE 100 struggles as UK consumer confidence wanes amid geopolitical uncertainty. The index has met stiff selling pressure near the recent peak (7690). A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling weighs on price action. Nonetheless, sentiment remains upbeat. And a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests strong impetus in the latest recovery. 7530 is fresh support and 7450 is the second line of defense in case of a deeper retreat. The bulls need to clear 7650 before they could regain the upper hand in the short term. Analysis: Gold prices (XAUUSD) increase inlight of the U.S. announcing their new inflation rate - Chart Of The Day By FXMAG.COM
Chart of the Week - Gold Miners vs Energy Producers - 20.04.2022

You Should Follow These Events And Assets! Saxo Bank's QuickTake: NAS100, S&P 500, Stoxx 50, EURUSD, USDJPY, XAUUSD, Crude Oil, Russia-Ukraine War - And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 19.04.2022 10:16
Macro 2022-04-19 08:34 6 minutes to read Summary:  Markets are trying to maintain an even keel as bond yields and oil prices continue to press higher. Europe returns from its long holiday weekend today as the war in Ukraine is heating up in the east and the hawkish Fed voter Bullard says he would not rule out a 75-basis-point hike at the May 4 FOMC meeting. Gold failed a bid to take the 2,000 dollar per ounce threshold yesterday.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  - US equities have been weak over the past week with negative reactions to earnings from US financials with JPMorgan Chase’s unexpected increase in credit provisions indicating credit conditions will worsen. This week major earnings releases in the US will dominate the reaction function and set the direction for the S&P 500 futures which are trading around the 4,400 level this morning with yesterday’s low at 4,355 being the key level to watch on the downside. Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun   Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I)  Hang Seng Index retreated more than 2% after investors found the 25 bp reserve requirement ratio cut by the People’s Bank of China last Friday disappointing as they had been expecting a more typical 50 bp reduction and a 10 bp cut in the policy Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate as well.  E-commerce names declined on report that the Chinse authority had asked e-commerce companies to a meeting and called on the latter to improve on practices on pricing and delivery of necessities to consumers during lockdowns. Alibaba and Meituan fell 3% to 5%. China Merchant Bank fell 11% following the abrupt departure of the Chinese bank’s president. CSI300 saw a modest decline with coal miners, agricultural chemicals and fertilizer producers, and energy sector seeing demand. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I)  – Stoxx 50 futures are stuck in the mud ahead of a critical week with US Q1 earnings releases and Russia’s new offensive in Donbass marking the beginning of the next and more critical phase of the war in Ukraine. Stoxx 50 futures are trading around the 3,750 level this morning and is boxed into a tight trading range from 3,710 to 3,800. EURUSD  – the euro traded and closed below the prior cycle low of 1.0800 after an initial sell-off through that level in the wake of last week’s ECB meeting failed to stick. Yield spreads at the short end of the curve, relative to the US, have generally trended sideways for nearly a month, although longer yields have risen more aggressively in the US since late March. USD liquidity concerns as risk sentiment is poor and the market fears more aggressive Fed quantitative tightening may be the key driver here. Watching the next chart level at 1.0636, the low from early 2020. USDJPY and JPY crosses.  The JPY continues to run away to the downside, with USDJPY hitting 128.00 for the first time since 2002, as long US treasury yields notched a new cycle peak yesterday and will soon threaten the 3.00% level if they continue to rise, underlining the policy divergence with the Bank of Japan, that continues to stick with its yield-curve-control policy that caps 10-year JGB yields at 0.25%. Both the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance have stepped up their verbal interventions against JPY volatility as recently as overnight, but until a policy shift is spotted, or real intervention is mobilized, the market is content to continue driving the JPY lower. The next major chart point is the early 2002 high near at 135.00. AUDJPY has also surged to fresh record highs of 94.50+ as the AUD was slightly firmer following the hawkish tilt in RBA minutes. Suzuki is heading for a bilateral meeting with the US and comments would be on watch. For you: Forex Rates: British Pound (GBP) Strengthening? Weak (EUR) Euro? GBP, NZD And AUD Supported By Monetary Policy? Gold (XAUUSD) attempted but failed to reach $2000, more a psychological than technical resistance level during Monday’s low liquidity session. Leveraged funds (futures) and asset managers (ETFs) both bought gold in the week to April 12, a sign the technical and fundamental outlook have – for now - aligned in support of the yellow metal. The World Bank cut its forecast for global economic growth while Fed’s Bullard talked up the prospect for a 75 basis point rate hikes given the need to raise rates to around 3.5% this year. While higher interest rates may weigh, worries about inflation, growth, and increased market volatility together with the geo-political uncertainties have maintain the upper hand. Support at $1965. Crude oil (OILUKJUN22 & OILUSMAY22) has extended its pre-Easter rally after Libya shuts its largest oil field amid protest, thereby draining an already undersupplied market further. Chinese fuel demand, currently estimated to be down 2 million barrels per day is likely to recover swiftly once lockdowns are lifted after China vowed to repair the economic damage. More than 500,000 barrels per day is currently offline in Libya and together with the EU attempts to phase out Russian oil imports, the market is expected to remain tight despite the announced release from strategic reserves held by the US and IEA members. Brent finding some resistance around $113.75 with a break potentially signaling a fresh push towards $120 per barrel. Copper (COPPERUSJUL22) reached its second highest ever close on Monday, as global mining disruptions continued to weigh on a market where exchange-monitored inventories are already at alarmingly low levels. Around 20% of Peru’s exports are out of action following local community protests. In addition, a Chinese government pledge to support the economy once lockdowns are lifted, and the increased urgency to reduced dependency on fossil fuels via electrification are likely to underpin the price further. Resistance at $4.86, a local high, and support at $4.65, the 50-day moving average. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT) and European Sovereign Debt. Despite the fresh hawkish talk from St. Louis Fed president Bullard, who is a voter at FOMC meetings this year, the short end of the US yield curve remains relatively steady, while long yields have continued to test higher as the US yield curve steepens. The next major obvious test for the long end is the 2018 high for the 10-year Treasury benchmark at 3.25% What is going on? World Bank downgrades global growth estimates. The World Bank cut its 2022 outlook to 3.2% from 4.1%, dragged down by Europe and Central Asia amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart said there is “exceptional uncertainty” in global markets and further downgrades cannot be ruled out. Get ready for more hawkish Fed talk this week. We had James Bullard on the wires yesterday, and he planted the seeds of a 75-basis points rate hike given that the Fed needs to get to neutral rate very soon. The base case for the May meeting is still a 50-basis points rate hike, and a final word on that should be watched from Fed Chair Powell on Thursday as he speaks at the IMF conference. Still, brace for more volatility in yields and further gains in the US dollar as Fed continues to raise the bar of its hawkishness. The Bloomberg Grains Subindex (AIGG:xlon) has returned to challenge to the March record high with the near month corn contract (CORNJUL22) exceeding $8 per bushel for the first time in almost a decade while wheat (WHEATJUL22) has also resumed its recent strong rally. Catalysts being the war in Ukraine, potentially reducing this year's corn crop by 40%, as well as drought and heat damage to crops in the US Midwest. In addition, the recent strong surge in US natural gas prices has further lifted the cost of fertilizer, thereby potentially seeing US farmers switch more acreage to less nutrient intensive soybeans from wheat and corn. What are we watching next? JPY intervention?  The verbal intervention from the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance have failed to impress the market. At some point the Japan’s MoF may feel it is necessary to mobilize an actual intervention in the market, something it has a long history of doing, though in the past, ironically in the direction of avoiding further JPY strength, not weakness. These interventions may not achieve more than temporary success if the underlying policy and market dynamic don’t shift (I.e., the Bank of Japan sticking to its current policy while inflationary pressures and yields elsewhere continue higher). But the risk of tremendous two-way, intraday volatility should be appreciated. War in Ukraine developments as Ukrainian president Zelenskiy said that Russia is initiating an effort to take the Donbas region in Easter Ukraine. An isolated force of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol continues to hold out against Russian efforts to take the city. Earnings Watch.  The Q1 earnings season started last week with EPS beating in all cases but Schwab indicated that earnings momentum is intact among US financials. JPMorgan Chase’s earnings release showed higher than expected credit provisions which may be early signs that the credit cycle is moving into its next phase. This week the key focus is on Johnson & Johnson (today), Netflix (today), Lockheed Martin (today), Halliburton (today), ASML (Wed), Sandvik (Wed), Tesla (Wed), Procter & Gamble (Wed), CATL (Thu), Nidec (Thu), ABB (Thu), NextEra Energy (Thu), Snap (Thu). Tuesday: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, Lockheed Martin, IBM, Halliburton,  Wednesday: China Mobile, China Telecom, ASML, Heineken, ASM International, Sandvik, Tesla, Procter & Gamble, Abbott Laboratories, Anthem, CSX, Lam Research, Kinder Morgan, Baker Hughes Thursday: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Sartorius Stedim Biotech, Nidec, Investor AB, ABB, Danaher, NextEra Energy, Philip Morris, Union Pacific, AT&T, Blackstone, Intuitive Surgical, Freeport-McMoRan, Snap, Dow, Nucor Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Switzerland SNB Weekly Sight Deposits 1215 – Canada Mar. Housing Starts 1230 – US Mar. Housing Starts and Building Permits 1605 – US Fed’s Evans (non-Voter) to speak 1630 – Switzerland SNB’s Jordan to speak 2350 – Japan Mar. Trade Balance 0115 – China Rate Decision Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app:    
Forecasts For Q4: The Power And Gas Crisis Will Reach Its Peak

Rising Inflation And Strong Dollar (USD), Stable Gold (XAUUSD) And Rising Yields... Crude Oil...

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 20.04.2022 21:55
Commodities 2022-04-20 14:00 Summary:  Gold, currently up around 7% so far this year, continues to perform strongly despite persistent headwinds from rising real yields and a stronger dollar. Instead the yellow metal has increasingly been focusing on multiple uncertainties, some of which were already present before Russia invaded Ukraine. Inflation and growth concerns have both been turbocharged by war and sanctions, and together with elevated volatility in stocks and not least bonds, these developments have seen investors increasingly look for safe havens in tangible assets such as investment metals. Impressive, is the word best describing gold’s performance so far this year. Currently up around 7% during a time where normal drivers such as US real yields and the dollar have risen, normally a development that would see gold struggle. The prospect of aggressive tightening by the US Federal Reserve has driven ten-year real yields higher by more than 1% while supporting a near 4% rise in the dollar against a broad index of currencies. Last year’s relatively weak performance, especially against the dollar, despite emerging inflationary concerns was driven by portfolio managers cutting back on the holdings they accumulated during 2020 as stock markets rallied and bond yields held relatively steady, thereby reducing the need for diversification. Fast forward to 2022 and we are now dealing with multiple uncertainties, some of which were already present before Russia invaded Ukraine. Inflation and growth concerns have both been turbocharged by war and sanctions, and together with elevated volatility in bonds and not least stocks, investors have sought safe havens in tangible assets such as investment metals. During the past year, gold and ten-year real yields have struggled to follow their usual inverse paths, and the dislocation accelerated further during Q1 when gold increasingly managed to ignore rising yields. At current levels gold is theoretically overvalued by around 300 dollars, and highlights a major shift in focus. The net reduction in bullion-backed ETFs that was seen throughout last year came to halt in late December, and since then total holdings have risen by 282 tons to 3325 tons. During the same time leveraged funds, primarily operating in the futures market, given the ability to trade lots valued at $195,000 for a margin of less than $8,000, have been much more dependent on the directional movements in the market. Following the March 8 failed attempt to reach a fresh record high they spent the following weeks scaling back exposure. An exercise that was not completed until the week of April 12 when they returned as net buyers, thereby aligning them with the mentioned ongoing demand for ETFs. Source: Saxo Group While inflation was something we talked about last year, the actual impact of sharply higher prices of everything is now increasingly being felt across the world. In response to this investors are increasingly waking up to the fact that the good years which delivered strong equity returns and stable yields are over. Instead the need to become more defensive has set in and these changes together with the risk of what Russia, a pariah nation to much of the world now, may do next if the war fails to yield the desired result. Instead of real yields, we have increasingly seen gold take some its directional input from crude oil, a development that makes perfect sense. The ebb and flow of the oil price impacts inflation through refined products such as diesel and gasoline while its strength or weakness also tell us something about the level of geopolitical risks in the system. In our recently published Quarterly Outlook we highlight the reasons why we see gold move higher and reach a fresh record high later this year. Source: Saxo Group
The Gold Market Is Volatile, There Are Two Possible Developments

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD recovers from intra-day dip under $1930, but still pressured as yields/USD rise

FXStreet News FXStreet News 22.04.2022 16:47
Gold Prices have recovered back into the $1940s from earlier sub-$1930 lows after finding support at the 50DMA. But XAU/USD still trades substantially lower on the day and versus earlier weekly highs at $2000. The backdrop of rising US yields and a strong US dollar have been unfavorable for gold. Spot gold (XAU/USD) prices have seen a decent intra-day bounce from earlier sub-$1930 lows back to the mid-$1940s, with the 50-Day Moving Average at $1936 offering strong support. But the precious metal continues to trade with losses of about 0.4% on the day, having ended Thursday trade to the north of the $1950 level. Gold continues to struggle to gain traction against a backdrop of still rising US yields (on Friday mostly at the front-end of the curve) and a strong US dollar, with markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle. In the last few days, in wake of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed policymakers opening the door to 50 bps rate hikes (some even hinted at larger moves), big US banks have been falling over themselves to hawkishly revise their Fed policy change calls. Nomura was in the headlines with a prediction that after a 50 bps rate hike in May the Fed would then follow up with a further two 75 bps rate hikes in June and July. This isn't a good backdrop for gold. Rising interest rates mean the "opportunity cost" of holding non-yielding assets like gold has gone up and this tends to dent demand. The Fed now goes into blackout ahead of the 3-4 May meeting, meaning precious metals might get some respite in the days ahead from hawkish Fed-related bearish flows. The big question investors will face next week will be whether 1) gold can make headway back towards this week's $2000 highs amid demand for inflation/stagflation protection as growth fears rise and geopolitical tensions remain elevated, or 2) will gold continue dropping towards recent lows in the $1900 area amid an unfavourable macro backdrop. Gold Price technical analysis On an hourly scale, XAU/USD has formed a double bottom chart pattern, which signifies a bullish reversal amid the absence of high-volume sellers while re-testing the critical bottom. The gold prices have witnessed a sheer upside after the successful retest of Wednesday’s low at $1,939.31. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has defended itself from slipping into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00. Also, the precious metal has established above 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which signals more gains ahead. Gold Price hourly chart On the other hand, the W-formation could be problematic and a restest of the neckline could be in order: Additionally, the daily wick and bearish close is a bearish formation which could give rise to a mitigation of the early April rally's imbalance of price for a test into a deeper demand area: On the other hand, the M-formation is also compelling on the daily chart and should bulls commute at hourly support, then the neckline would be expected to pull the price in.
The Current Picture Of Economies In The Old Continent

Can (XAUUSD) Gold Price Plunge To $1800!? Silver Price (XAGUSD) To Decrease As Well?

Jason Sen Jason Sen 25.04.2022 09:59
Gold first support at 1927/24 but longs need stops below 1920. A break lower targets 1915/12. Below 1910 look for 1900, perhaps as far as 1890. Strong resistance at 1940/45. Shorts need stops above 1950. Read next (By Jason Sen): British Pound To Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) Bounces To Ease Severely Oversold Conditions As Predicted, EUR/USD again holds important 5 year trend line support at 1.0850/20 | FXMAG.COM Silver best support for this week at 2390/80. Longs need stops below 2365. A break lower is a medium term sell signal. Minor resistance at 24.50/60. Strong resistance at 2485/95. Shorts need stops above 2505. WTI Crude JUNE first support at 102.00/101.50. Longs need stops below 101.00 (a low for the day here again on Friday). A break lower however targets 9900/9850 & 9750/9700. We could fall as far as very strong support at 94.50/9400. Longs need stops below 9350. Read next: Euro To US Dollar (EUR To USD): That's An Amazing USD Performance, Will USDCAD (Canadian Dollar) Stay Close? USDJPY (Japanese Yen) Beats Records! | FXMAG.COM Holding support at 102.00/101.50 allows a recovery to minor resistance at 104.50/105.00. Above 105.50 however look for 106, perhaps as far as 107.30/70. Shorts need stops above 108.50. Please email me if you need this report updated or Whatsapp: +66971910019 – To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk
Is This The End Of A Winning Streak/Bullish Trend Of Gold?

Gold Transformed! Gold Price (XAUUSD): From Haven To Anti-Dollar (USD)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.04.2022 15:30
Gold lost 1.6% since the beginning of the day on Monday, testing $1900 precisely one week after an unsuccessful attempt to get above $2000. The essential factor that puts pressure on gold is the Fed's toughening rhetoric that triggers a broad sell-off of risky assets. Gold speculatively played its role as a haven for the war in Ukraine as it strengthened along with the US currency. Now gold is working as a commodity asset, turning into an anti-dollar with an inverse correlation to the US currency. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin Priceslips To The Lows Of The Year. Crypto Regulations: Confusing Discussion In The US And The EU. Ether (ETH) And Monero (XMR) Highlighted | FXMAG.COM (...) it looks like the bulls capitulated locally The sharp declines on Friday and Monday seem to have broken the bullish momentum that was formed at the beginning of February. Last week's closing under the 50 SMA and the support areas of March and the first half of April did not attract new buyers. On the contrary, it looks like the bulls capitulated locally. Read next: Dollar changes pressure angle| FXMAG.COM (...) the gold might zero out the rally since the beginning of the year and go back to $1830 or get lower to $1780-1800 (...) In just a matter of ten days before the Fed meeting, the gold might zero out the rally since the beginning of the year and go back to $1830 or get lower to $1780-1800 before we might see a new buying impulse.
(NVDA) Nvidia Stock Price Plunged! Meme Stocks' Performance Seems To Be Surprisingly Good

US Yields Have Declined! Gold Price (XAUUSD) Is Back In The Game! Gold Trades Near $1900, COVID In China Leave Investors Unsure

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 26.04.2022 10:25
The price of gold appears to be back above $1,900 per ounce on Tuesday, after a 3-day decline. The rise seems to have taken place with a slight weakening of the US dollar and a drop in US Treasury bond yields, which may have made bullion more attractive. Investors may be monitoring the deteriorating Covid virus situation in China after authorities in Beijing expanded testing to a larger part of the city The U.S. dollar appears to have retreated today from a two-year high reached during the previous session, while the 10-year bond yield may have fallen from a three-year high, retreating to around 2.8 percent. Given the growing uncertainty about the outlook for global economic growth, the market may be gauging the Federal Reserve's willingness to tighten monetary policy quickly. Additionally, investors may be monitoring the deteriorating Covid virus situation in China after authorities in Beijing expanded testing to a larger part of the city, raising fears of a shutdown of the capital. In addition, Russia told the world not to underestimate the significant risk of nuclear war, which it says it wants to reduce, and warned that conventional Western weapons are a target in Ukraine. Gold can be seen as a store of value during economic and political crises. Read next: Conotoxia - Who's Gonna Stop Dollar (USD)!? EUR/USD Plunging Below 1.00? What A Surprise! Crude Oil Price Goes Down!| FXMAG.COM European buyers have refused to buy millions of barrels of Urals crude from Rosneft PJSC Meanwhile, in the oil market, WTI crude futures appear to have risen to around $99.5 a barrel on Tuesday, after a two-day decline that took prices below $100. However, the supply situation appears to remain tight. There is still a risk that the EU could join the U.S. and U.K. in banning Russian oil imports as the war in Ukraine continues. European buyers have refused to buy millions of barrels of Urals crude from Rosneft PJSC, while Asian refiners have given up on Russian oil because of sanctions imposed on the company that carries the cargoes. As a result, the world on the one hand may be reducing oil demand by the prospect of weaker economic growth and lower demand from China due to the epidemic. On the other hand, there are still chances of reduced oil supply in Europe due to war and sanctions, which may put upward pressure on production. Thus, the price of WTI crude oil, due to the opposing factors, may remain in a consolidation of $92-114. Read next: Conotoxia - (USD) Dollar Index - Fed Floors It! Hawkish Rhetoric And Interest Rate Hike? British Pound In Crisis? GBP/USD Affected By Weak Retail Sales Data!| FXMAG.COM   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
US Inflation Data And Gold & Silver Benefit From Softer USD

A Market Crash Is Coming? Check How S&P 500, Crude Oil, Hang Seng, USDCNH And Other Assets Performs

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 26.04.2022 10:34
Macro 2022-04-26 08:34 6 minutes to read Summary:  Market sentiment stabilized yesterday ahead of the heart of earnings season kicking off today, with the slide in the Chinese renminbi halted after official moves signaled some support for the currency. Still, the threat of Covid lockdowns looms in Beijing with tens of millions set for testing. Elsewhere, Elon Musk is set to take Twitter private in a debt-heavy deal, oil rebounded from a deep sell-off and gold has tested existential support. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - S&P 500 futures tested the 4,200 level yesterday as we highlighted was possible but found quick support before bouncing back to close above Friday’s close. That is a short-term positive signal but earning releases this week can still wreck this rebound trade, so we expect volatility to remain high over the coming days. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) - with another round of supportive rhetoric from central bank officials and pledge from the State Council to boost domestic consumption, markets found a bid in morning trading but their gains pared in the afternoon. Hang Seng Index was up 1.5% while CSI300 was down modestly. Chinese mega cap internet names traded in Hong Kong and retailers traded in the mainland were among the top gainers. HSBC reported in-line earnings, but common equity tier 1 (‘CET1’) capital ratio came at 14.1%, down 1.7 per centage point from 4Q21. Share price fell over 3%. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - signals from PBOC to support the Chinese economy and better than expected earnings from HSBC, UBS, Santander, and a FY profit guidance increase from Maersk are lifting equity sentiment with Stoxx 50 futures trading around the 3,735 level in early trading hours. That puts European equity futures back into the trading range from the past two weeks, but technically European equities remain weak it requires good news from earnings, China, and the war in Ukraine to move things higher. GBPUSD and USD/commodity currency and USD/EM pairs – with some relief in risk sentiment yesterday, the US dollar rally eased after first having extended its strength earlier in the day. As noted below, much of the force of the recent move has been linked by a jolt higher in USDCNH, which after a long period of quiet is finally catching up to the broader picture of USD strength and adding to that USD strength elsewhere. The weakest of currencies against the greenback in recent sessions have been commodity-linked, EM and Asian currencies with a significant exposure to China, but also sterling, which has suffered a vicious sell-off as the outlook for the UK economy rapidly deteriorates amidst soaring cost-of-living headwinds, cratering confidence, supply-side limitations, and massive external deficits. GBPUSD traders may eventually eye the ultimate support of 1.2000. USDCNH  at the center of the recent violent extension of the US dollar rally has been a marked weakening of the Chinese renminbi, which has come after a long period of extreme quiet even as volatility picked up elsewhere. Yesterday, China moved to cut the reserve-ratio-requirement for Chinese banks’ forex reserves by 1% (to 8% from 9%) to increase the supply of USD, a gesture suggesting that the recent pace of CNY devaluation has proceeded more rapidly than desired. The PBOC overnight promised targeted support for the economy, but the concerns linked to China’s zero-Covid strategy and threat weighs of a lockdown of Beijing similar to the recent experience in Shanghai.  Gold (XAUUSD)  trades back above $1900 supported by higher oil prices and a softer dollar. This following a two-day sell off that was triggered by aggressive US rate hike signals and a sharp drop in silver (XAGUSD) on growth concerns. With support around $1890 holding once again the yellow metal needs a break above support-turned-resistance at $1915. The Fed is currently on a collision course with the PBoC which needs to add stimulus on mounting growth fears, and it raises the question of whether the FOMC will be able to hike rates as aggressively as expected by the market. Until that question gets answered, the market is likely to get its directional input from oil (inflation and geo-risk gauge) as well as developments in China. Crude oil (OILUKJUN22 & OILUSJUN22)  bounced back following a two-day decline that briefly saw Bent crude dip below $100. A lockdown related drop in Chinese demand for fuel together with the prospect of a rapid succession of US rate hikes to curb growth have been the focus this past week. However, with the supply picture being as tight as it currently is, especially with Europe considering a ban on Russian crude imports, any signs of an improve situation in China would attract a renewed bid. Until then these major opposing forces are likely to keep the market rangebound and nervous. In Brent, only a break below $98 would signal additional and potential deep losses from technical selling. Resistance just above $106.50 where the 21- and 50-day moving averages meet. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT)  were sold late yesterday after posting a new 1-week low in yields, taking the yield for the 10-year benchmark back into the range above 2.82%. The high for the cycle in that important yield has been just above 2.95% - with 3.00% perhaps a psychological resistance ahead of the 2018 high near 3.26%. What is going on? US planting progress and crop conditions continue to highlight a challenging situation. A weekly report released Monday showed corn planting (CORNDEC22) had advanced by 3% to being 7% complete, the slowest pace in almost ten years and trailing last year’s pace of 17%. Winter wheat rated good/excellent dropped 3% to 27% and was near the worst on record. The planting delays and conditions have been caused by the weather being too cold, too wet, or a combination of both. Big grain harvests in North America are needed this year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reduced shipments out of the Black Sea, from where 25% of the global wheat export originates, while raising doubts about this year’s crop production in Ukraine. Twitter board agrees with Musk on deal.  The two parties agreed yesterday with a purchase price of $54.20/share translating into a takeover market value of $44bn and part of the deal is massive use of debt which multiplied with the current interest rates will eat most of Twitter’s immediate operating profits, but since the company is going private the profit generation is no longer the main objective. Our view is that Musk’s acquisition of Twitter could be a problem for Tesla going forward as governments may use Musk’s ownership of Twitter against him in negotiations with Tesla. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says BoC considering 50 basis point hike.  In testimony before Parliament, Macklem admitted that the BoC “got some things wrong” in its policy mix, voiced concern about broadening price pressures and guided for further tightening. Bank of Canada rate expectations were actually slightly lower yesterday, with CAD moves of late, at least in USDCAD, yesterday more correlated with risk sentiment and crude oil prices. The Bank of Canada is already priced to hike at least 50 basis points at each of its next three meeting. USDJPY lacks direction ahead of BoJ meeting on Thursday. The Japanese yen gains yesterday and overnight were capped by a rebound in US treasury yields. Japan finance minister Suzuki said that there is no truth to the media report on Japan/US discussion on joint FX intervention. While there may be room for a further fall in USDJPY given the outsized gains we have seen so far, policy divergence between the Fed and Japan remains the key theme and any BOJ policy tweak this week remains on watch. US earnings recap.  Coca-Cola beat expectations yesterday and is seeing higher revenue growth than what analysts had expected suggesting analysts are behind the curve on inflation dynamics and what it means for revenue growth. Activision Blizzard also reported earnings yesterday, which is part of the entertainment industry, and reported worse than expected figures with revenue especially disappointing at $1.48bn vs est. $1.81bn. IMF warns on Asia stagflation risk.  IMF has said that the Asian region faces stagflationary outlook with growth being lower than previously expected and inflation being higher. The larger-than-expected slowdown in China due to prolonged or more widespread lockdowns, longer-than-expected slump in the property market, constitutes significant risk for Asia. Monetary tightening will be needed in most countries, with speed of tightening depending on domestic inflation developments and external pressures. IFO April German business confidence surprises on the upside.  The headline index was up at 91.8 versus an estimated 89.0. The current assessment index is moving upward too, at 97.2 versus estimated 95.9. Finally, the expectations index is out at 86.7 versus estimated 83.5. This is very positive, of course. But we think optimism will not last. There are several factors which will negatively impact the German economy in the coming months: the possible new cold war, prevalent supply chain disruptions, higher energy bills, the acceleration of deglobalisation etc. All of this will have negative consequences on the German export industry. Be ready for worse data in the coming months. Inflation is hitting the UK consumer hard. According to the latest ONS survey, 43 % of UK households said they encountered difficulties paying their energy bill in March and 43 % say they will probably be unable to save in the next twelve months. These data are compared with a year ago. Expect UK consumption to fall sharply in the coming months. The likelihood of a recession is increasing, of course. What are we watching next? Risk of further Chinese Covid lockdowns.  The current focus in China as Covid spreads there is Beijing, where partial shutdowns were already ordered yesterday of one region of the city, but with mass testing of 20 million Beijing area residents set to begin. The province of Inner Mongolia is also a focus on concerns that Covid-related disruptions are set to reduce rare earth metal production there. Technology earnings and their profit margins.  Net profit margins are confirming their downtrend in Q1 according to preliminary earnings data, but technology companies measured by the Nasdaq 100 are seeing less impact on margins from rising input costs. As technology companies are the biggest constituents in the main indices it crucial how these companies perform on earnings this week, but also that they can demonstrate less impact from inflation. The first test of this thesis is tonight with earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Visa. Earnings Watch.  Today’s earnings focus is on Microsoft, Alphabet and Visa which are all reporting after the US market close, which is the first real test of the US technology sector for the Q1 following preliminary disappointments from Netflix and yesterday’s Activision Blizzard earnings. Today: Kweichow Moutai, Ganfeng Lithium, First Quantum Minerals, Tryg, FANUC, Canon, HSBC, Banco Santander, Iberdrola, Atlas Copco, Novartis, UBS Group, Kuehne + Nagel, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, PepsiCo, UPS, Texas Instruments, Raytheon Technologies, General Electric, Mondelez, Chubb, 3M Wednesday: LONGi Green Energy, Teck Resources, DSV, Novozymes, Kone, Dassault Systemes, STMicroelectronics, Deutsche Bank, BYD, China Shenhua Energy, China Petroleum & Chemical, UniCredit, Keyence, GlaxoSmithKline, Lloyds Banking Group, Yara International, Iberdrola, Assa Abloy, SEB, Credit Suisse, Meta, Qualcomm, Amgen, Boeing, PayPal, ServiceNow, Ford, Southern Copper Thursday: Nokia, Sanofi, TotalEnergies, Denso, Hitachi, Barclays, Nordea, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Eli Lilly, Thermo Fisher, Merck, Comcast, Intel, McDonald’s, Linde, Caterpillar, Hershey, Twitter Friday: ICBC, China Yangtze Power, Midea Group, WuXi AppTec, TC Energy, Imperial Oil, Orsted, Neste Danske Bank, BASF, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Ping An Insurance, COSCO Shipping, Eni, AstraZeneca, BBVA, Hexagon, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Bristol-Myers, Honeywell, Colgate-Palmolive Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – ECB’s de Cos to speak 1040 – ECB's de Cos to speak 1200 – Hungary Central Bank Rate Decision 1215 – ECB's Villeroy to speak 1230 – US Mar. Preliminary Durable Goods Orders 1300 – US Feb. S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index 1400 – US Apr. Conference Board Consumer Confidence 1400 – US Apr. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1400 – US Mar. New Home Sales 0130 – Australia Q1 CPI  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app:    
XAUUSD: What Do We Learn From Ichimoku Cloud Indicator Analysis Of Gold Price?

KOG Report: The week ahead for GOLD!! - 01.05.2022

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 01.05.2022 20:31
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/0iiydXgu-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ In last week’s KOG report we again suggested we weren’t convinced by the bullish sentiment in Gold and we would be targeting lower levels on Gold. We stated that as long as the price stays below that 1960-65 level our target will be the 1890-95 price point. We updated this during the week with our plans together with the levels and targets for the short destination which you can see has now completed. We completed 17 targets across numerous pairs in Camelot giving us a pip capture which again was through the roof. That’s along side all the free trade ideas we had posted on TradingView. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We will be looking for some bullish momentum in Gold in the week ahead with the immediate level we want to target being the 1917-20 region and above that 1925-30. What we do want to see however is a swoop on some voids below which could give us a double bottom on the 4H timeframe. The concerning thing for us is we still have lower targets that are active on Gold, so we will trade the new week and first few days of the month with caution. There is a chance they can swing low into the void, take liquidity from there and then push the price up before facing resistance and then dropping it again! For that reason we will have the weeks bias a bullish but overall bias will remain bearish for now! We want to see how the 1925-30 price point takes in the price if it gets there. We have shown the levels we are looking at and together with the support and resistance levels. We will break this down during the course of the week and take it step by step making sure we remain in the right direction on Gold, as we have been. Again, that 1960 price level is very possible and again, if we get that far up, we will be looking for the price to remain below this level to maintain our bearish view. Theirs is every possibility this can begin to settle in between this range of 1875 and 1930 so look out for the range, plot the levels and use the range trading strategy we have shared on TradingView previously. We will link it to this post for you! So as always, we will trade this with two scenarios in mind. Please read this carefully as the we can do so much to create the roadmap on the chart without cluttering it with too many lines and arrows. Scenario 1: We open and price find support around where we have closed or just below here. We feel this would be a good opportunity to test the long trade into the first level of 1915-17 and breaking that the next level of 1930. 1930-35 is where we want to again assess the price action and the structure of the chart before deciding whether to hold our trades or to then release all the longs and test the short trade back down to test the patterns neckline. Please note, that breaking above the 1935 price region could entail the price going further into the higher resistance level of 1960-65 where again we will look for the short. From 1935-1960 we will switch to our level to level trading strategy holding partial longs from the lows, if we get the entry! Scenario 2: Price pushes up from the open. We will not go long, rather wait for a retest of support to go long or if it doesn’t hit the 1915-17 level, or wait for the 1915-17 level to either resist the price or turn into support. Once this is confirmed we will be happy to go long to target the higher levels for support levels until we reach 1930-35 and above that 1960. At 1960 we feel the opportunity again will arise to short the market down into the lower support regions starting at 1910. We will of course update during the week. In summary: We have a lower level of 1858 as a target and higher level of 1960 and above that 1995 again. We either want to lows to be complete to give us the entries for the longs into the higher levels, or, we want the high to be complete so we can short it again down into our lower targets. New week, new month, we have a rule in Camelot where we take it easy during the first few and last few days of the month. Let the market settle and find its feet, the trades will come, it just requires patience, and patience pays!! Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
Price Of Gold Is Now Bouncing Higher But Trend Remains Controlled By Bears

KOG Report FOMC: What to look out for!

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 04.05.2022 19:04
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/vnkW7Vje-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT-FOMC/ This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to keep this one brief today as we’re not really interested in trading this on the intraday levels. Instead, we want to wait for key levels to break and act as support or resistance, or we want key levels to get hit where we can test the entries for the longer trades. As you can see we’ve hit the lower level we wanted on the KOG Report which was published on Sunday leaving the higher levels still open. We can still see some movement up to come, however, how low can they swing it if they want to before we see the rise at least to target the 1900 level. So here are the two scenarios we will be looking at for FOMC and potentially during the course of tomorrow, unless anything changes. We’re going to use the 1HR chart with the 4HR Key levels, so it makes it easier to follow the price. Scenario 1: They push the price up from here, the first level we want to look for a reaction in price is the 1890-95 price point. This is where there could be an opportunity to short the market down into the 1850-40 price region. We will then be looking around 1830-25 for a grab and potentially this could represent an opportunity to then trade this back up to where the price broke out from and maybe higher. Breaking the 1890-95 level then we're looking at 1914 and above that 1930-35. Scenario 2: They push the price down, its likely they will swoop just below the 1850-45 price level and then attempt to recover the price back up to target the 1900 level and potentially beyond. Breaking the 1840 level will likely mean they will hit our 1835 target where again we will likely see a reaction in price to potentially take the long trade. In Summary: We have the levels of 1830-25 below and we have the levels of 1925-35 above. If they really want to move the price they can move it to either of these extreme levels. The best option on funds like this is to sit out, wait for the to target the levels, let the price show signs of exhaustion and then take your entry. Trying to catch this up and down in high volume high volatility is potluck, you’ll either get it right or you’ll get it wrong. Hope this helps in preparation for FOMC. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
Analysis of Gold for July 27,.2022 - Sideways regime, watch for the breakout

Is The US Dollar The Global Safe-Haven?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 04.05.2022 16:33
Global investors continue to pile into the US Dollar making it the primary safe-haven trade.  This may eventually trigger a broad and deep selloff in U.S. stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen, corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear. The following chart by Finviz shows the percentage the USD has appreciated against all the major global currencies during the past month: In the current market environment, it’s imperative to assess your trading plan, portfolio holdings, and cash reserves. Experienced traders know what their downside risk is and adapt as necessary. Successful traders manage risk by utilizing stop-loss orders, rebalancing existing positions, reducing portfolio holdings, liquidating investments, and moving into cash. USDJPY UP +13.29% VS S&P 500 -12.76% The S&P 500 peaked on January 5, 2022, and after 3-months put in a lower top on March 29, 2022.  In comparison, the US Dollar USD has gained steadily throughout 2022 as noted in the FX currency pairs USDJPY, USDCHF, and USDCAD. Interestingly we can see that as the USD is picking up steam to the upside simultaneously stocks are selling off. It appears that the money that is coming out of the equity markets is going into cash. But not just any cash but specifically into US dollars. The global appetite for the US dollar and its subsequent rise can kill the stock market as US corporate profits dry up and everything the US consumer purchases in US dollars rise to levels that are no longer sustainable. UNITED STATES DOLLAR • GLOBAL COMPARISON • OANDA • DAILY GBPUSD LOST -36.30% 2007-08 During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, the British Pound vs the US Dollar GBPUSD lost -36.30% in 14-months. Translation: the USD gained +36.30 against the GBP! The current drop in the GBPUSD has been roughly -13.00% over the last 8-months. Potentially the GBPUSD could move down another -20% over the next 6-months or longer if the downturn lasts for an extended period. Translation: the USD has the potential to gain an additional +20% against the GBP! GBPUSD • BRITISH POUND VS US DOLLAR • FXCM • MONTHLY AUDUSD LOST -39.20% 2007-08 During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, the Australian Dollar vs the US Dollar AUDUSD lost -39.20% in just 4-months. Translation: the USD gained +39.20 against the AUD! The current drop in the AUDUSD has been roughly -8.42% over the last 1-month. Potentially the AUDUSD could move down another -30% over the next 3-months or longer if the downturn lasts for an extended period. Translation: the USD has the potential to gain an additional +30% against the AUD! AUDUSD • AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR VS US DOLLAR • FXCM • MONTHLY DISCOVER HOW TO MANAGE DRAWDOWNS Drawdowns are critical as the larger the loss the more difficult it is to make up. A loss of 10% requires an 11% gain to recover, however, a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover, and a 60% loss requires an even more daunting 150% gain to simply return to break even. Recovery time also varies significantly depending upon the magnitude of the drawdown. A 10% drawdown can typically be recovered in weeks or a few months while a 50% drawdown may take several years to recover. Depending on a trader's age they may not have the time to wait on the recovery nor the patience. Therefore, successful traders know it’s critical to keep their drawdowns within reason as most of them learned this principle the hard way! Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Especially in times like these, traders must understand where opportunities are and how to turn this knowledge into profits. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to subscribers. Recently, we entered new trades, all of which hit their first profit target levels and then eventually triggered their break-even profit stop-loss orders on their remaining position. After booking our profits we are now safely in cash preparing for our next trades. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list. Our core objective is to protect our valuable capital while identifying suitable risk vs reward opportunities for profits in new and emerging trends. WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens. Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy? We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
|XAUUSD| Gold Price To Plunge Below $1800!? KOG Report: The week ahead for GOLD!! - 08/05/22

|XAUUSD| Gold Price To Plunge Below $1800!? KOG Report: The week ahead for GOLD!! - 08/05/22

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 08.05.2022 21:35
In last weeks KOG Report we were looking for some bullish momentum for Gold which we didn’t get until the end of the week. We wanted to see the price swoop liquidity from below in the immediate support regions and then begin an incline to target the higher levels we had identified before then dropping into the lower KOG targets. Instead, we can see the price continued the decline until the later part of the week completing our lower target and then beginning a small incline in price. Did it go to plan? No! We hit the target but not how we wanted to. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/u9lYCBa2-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ So what can we expect in the week ahead? Not much has changed from our view from last week, we’re still looking for some bullish price action to target that higher resistance level where we want to see a reaction before then taking the swoop of the low. There is a huge possibility they can open by undercutting the low from last week, so this is a key area we want to keep an eye on. The region stands around the 1850 psychological level where there is likely to be a reaction in price action. If we open and target that low without breaking it this time then there is a chance, they will take this up before again trying to bring it down again. So, we will use the same NFP chart we used last week and look for the same areas again this week for our entries and exits. As always, we will trade this with two scenarios in mind. Scenario 1: They open and push the price down first, targeting that 1850-55 price region. Based on support at this price point we feel this would represent a good opportunity to go long on the market to target that 1915, 1920 and above that 1927-30 price point. As the chart illustrates, this is where we will be waiting again to short the market back down into the 1885, 1850 and below that 1830 price points. Scenario 2: This would be ideal for us. They open and push the price to the upside targeting that 1915 level and above that the 1925-30 price region. This is where if we have take any long trades we will exit and then look for resistance to target the lower levels of 1850 and below that 1830. Our targets for the week are: Lower: 1845 1833 1821 Higher: 1895 1917 1933 1940 In summary: We are level to level at the moment following Excalibur where ever it is taking us. We’re waiting for the higher of lower extreme levels to take our longer term positions for either the long into the 1930 price region from below, or, the short from the higher key level above. The ideal scenario as we said is for the price to push up during the early part of the week and then take the decline we are waiting for. Where are we targeting to the downside? Let’s just say we have a target around the 1790 price point. Whether it gets there or not is to be seen, but this is what we’re looking at in Camelot. As always, we’ll update this during the course of the week with our morning reviews and the changes in our plans. Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Remain Stable Despite Hawkish Fed, EU Regains Control Of Their NGAS Supplies, Cotton Futures Prices.

(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Remain Stable Despite Hawkish Fed, EU Regains Control Of Their NGAS Supplies, Cotton Futures Prices.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.05.2022 13:13
Summary: The EU refills their NGAS stockpiles, driving the price of NGAS Futures down. Cotton Prices falling despite concerns around supply. Gold Prices remain surprisingly stable despite interest rate hikes   Read next: Prices Of Brent Crude Oil And Silver Fall As The US Dollar Strengthening, Corn Prices Face Downward Price Pressure.    Natural Gas Futures Prices Drop Towards the end of last week the price of Natural Gas soared, however tumbled around 13% during the trading day on Monday as a change in output and expected demand occurred as a result of the changing weather forecast. In addition the EU gas pipes were reported to be filling as gas piles into the pipes from Russian Sources which caused EU prices to stabilise. The change in the price is likely to continue in the short term thanks to the fundamental factors mentioned above, however with the EU’s recent oil embargo, whether or not this downward trend will continue is unlikely. It is also important to note that the stock market experienced a sour trading day on monday, causing prices across all markets to fall. NGAS Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures tank. Cotton futures saw a price dip during last week's trading week and earlier this week, however, prices seemed to have gained slightly on Tuesday. The price fall on Monday followed the trend of the wider global market which experienced a sour trading day on Monday. Prices are still soaring at high levels, due to the concerns around supply without wavering demand, and the possibility of an export ban by India is causing unrest around the commodity. Cotton Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold Futures remaining surprisingly stable (XAUUSD) Along with the rest of the global market, the price of gold dropped during the trading day on Monday. In addition the price of gold has been declining over the past days, this comes as the Fed grows more hawkish in their fight against inflation. The decline is not as sharp as market participants expected, this could be because investors are hedging their bets as the market awaits the U.S CPI report due on Wednesday. XAUUSD Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart   Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold, Coffee and Crude Oil - Commodities Facing Price Trouble Over the Past Month    Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, asia.nikkei.com
Russia's Crude Oil Still Flows To Japan, Negative Trade Balance In Japan

Crude Oil Extends Losses, (XAUUSD) Gold Price Under Pressure | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.05.2022 21:32
Oil slips closer to USD 100 Oil prices are slightly lower again today and not far from double-digit territory as traders grapple with the prospect of recessions and a tightening of Chinese restrictions. The unwillingness and, more accurately, inability of OPEC+ to turn the taps on more is keeping oil prices very elevated but at a little over USD 100, it’s more comfortable than was looking probable at times over the last couple of months. The EU struggling to find a coordinated response on Russian oil is possibly helping to alleviate some near-term pressures, although progress with Hungary is reportedly being made. This also comes as some OPEC members warn of dwindling energy capacity as a result of underinvestment, perhaps a sign that we should get used to these higher prices. Gold struggling as central banks raise their game Uncertainty and risk aversion in the markets is doing little to support gold at the moment, with the dollar instead being favoured and the yellow metal under heavy pressure. Since coming within a whisker of USD 2,000 a few weeks ago, gold has fallen more than 7% and looks vulnerable to further losses. Inflation is still extremely high and economic uncertainty is weighing heavily on risk assets. But central banks are being very aggressive to try and contain price pressures which appears to be getting in the way of gold retaining the gains it made earlier in the year when they were still in denial. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Why telecom companies should focus on the ‘s’ in ESG - Part 3

Where (USD) US Dollar Is Going To Head To In The Next Few Days? May S&P 500 And Gold Become Volatile Shortly? | Daily Reprieve or More | Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.05.2022 14:17
S&P 500 modest risk-on turn talked yesterday, is underway – with adequate support from bonds. That means the dollar is going to get under daily selling pressure, with positive consequences for assets spanning commonidities, precious metals and sure supporting tech as well (looking at TLT to cast a decisive vote for Nasdaq). Unfolding just fine, but what about the CPI effect? Likely to temper the oh so fast inflation theme, at least temporarily – and that would take pressure off the Fed‘s hand being twisted by the markets. Note though how both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury paused over the last days. Together with the arriving as anticipated negative quarterly GDP print, the temporary slowdown in pace of inflation would get an ally in retreating (especially long-term) Treasury yields reflecting the darkening real economy prospects. Time for a relief S&P 500 rally with both tech and value participation, if only HYG can perform somewhat better. Time for a relief S&P 500 rally with both tech and value participation, if only HYG can perform somewhat better. The bulls have a chance, and can run with it as best as they can. Cryptos thus far are modestly leaning in the „local bottom is in“ direction (in spite of the tectonic Tether developments), so the odds are for price gains across the board (at the expense of the dollar) during today – as long as markets interpret the upcoming CPI reading as slowing down / slowly peaking. Yes, since Jun 2020 when I started to talk early effects of inflation, the last week has been the first time when I raised the good likelihood of inflation making a local peak when May / Jun CPI readings come in, only to spring quickly back to life on the „economy is slowing, do something“ change in tune of demands made to the Fed. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM At these trying times for real asset bulls, let‘s take the proper precious metals perspective, enjoy the rich caption: It‘s the dollar, yields and miners coming back to life that would mark the coming upleg arrival Plenty of upside risk to become evident in 2H 2022, with my Monday‘s article covering the game plan for turnaround across the many assets on my daily watch. It‘s the dollar, yields and miners coming back to life that would mark the coming upleg arrival. Lean times until then. Read next: (EUR/USD) German Inflation Meets Forecasts, Pound Sterling Continues To Weaken (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), (EUR/JPY) Japanese Yen Strengthens As Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets| FXMAG.COM There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Stock Market Showing Signs Of Slight Recovery Amidst U.S CPI Report Release

Stock Market Showing Signs Of Slight Recovery Amidst U.S CPI Report Release

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.05.2022 18:05
Summary: S&P 500 has seen 0.72% growth today. The value of (XAUUSD) gold has shown bullish signals in the market today. Read next: Tech Stocks Plunging!? Trade Desk Earnings Announcement Pushes Tech Giant Stock Down, Russian Ruble Strengthening and Ford Motor Co.  S&P 500 is rising during trading today The U.S CPI report which offered an update on price increases across U.S for April was released by the U.S labour department on Wednesday. The report reflected there was some deceleration of inflation figures compared to March, however, the rate of price increases exceeded analyst expectations. The CPI for April decelerated marginally compared to the March figures. The figures represent how far the Fed will have to go in the future regarding tightening monetary policy to fight the rising prices. S&P 500 Price Chart Will Gold rally in the wake of the CPI report? Gold futures have increased in value today, the initial increase came before the CPI report was released by the U.S labor department, and the increase has continued after the release. The lower than expected CPI figures bode well in the favour of the gold prices as uncertainty arises amongst investors on the Fed's next move. With volatility in the stock markets likely to continue, perhaps investors are trying to hedge their bets, driving the price of gold upwards. Gold Futures Jun’22 Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100.  Sources: Finance.yahoo.com
Saudi's Are Threatening To Reduce To Reduce Oil Supply!?

Crude Oil (USOIL) Trades Quite Lower, Australian Dollar Has Weakened Against US Dollar (AUDUSD), Gold Price Has Slid | Orbex

Jing Ren Jing Ren 12.05.2022 09:21
AUDUSD saw brief recovery The Australian dollar struggles as Beijing vows to support its Covid-hit economy. A drop below the psychological level of 0.7000 near this year’s low may have put the Aussie on a bearish trajectory in the medium-term. On the hourly chart, the RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area may cause a limited rebound. Selling interest could be expected at 0.7100 at the origin of the latest sell-off. A drop below the intermediate support at 0.6920 would extend losses towards June 2020’s lows around 0.6820. Read next: Tech Stocks Plunging!? Trade Desk Earnings Announcement Pushes Tech Giant Stock Down, Russian Ruble Strengthening and Ford Motor Co.  XAUUSD tests demand area Bullion steadied after the US CPI receded in April. The price action has found some support at the base of the February bullish breakout. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the downward momentum, a prerequisite for a reversal. 1868 is a key resistance and a breakout would confirm the demand zone and prompt sellers to cover their bets. Then 1910 is the last hurdle before sentiment would turn around. On the downside, a break below 1831 would send the precious metal to the psychological level of 1800. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100.  USOIL bounces higher WTI crude rallies as Russia retaliates by sanctioning European gas companies. A fall below the rising trendline near 106.00 has put the bulls on the defensive. The price has met bids at 98.50 and in conjunction with a bullish RSI divergence could attract more buying interest. Optimism may gain traction if buyers succeed in holding above this demand zone. A close above support-turned-resistance at 107.00 would put the bulls back in the game. Then a break above 111.00 could trigger an extended rally above 117.00.
Chaos And Rising Volatility Are Present In Market Mood

Crude Oil Jumps, (XAUUSD) Gold Price Under Pressure | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 12.05.2022 16:36
Oil markets remain volatile Oil prices spiked overnight, led by a combination of Shanghai reopening, potential gas supply disruption through Ukraine, Russian sanctions on EU energy entities and a plunge in gasoline inventories in the US. Brent crude rose 5.90% to USD 107.50, and WTI leapt 6.60% higher to USD 105.50 a barrel. In Asia, the risk aversion selling sweeping other asset classes in Asia today has pushed oil prices slightly lower. Brent crude fell 1.20% to USD 106.25, and WTI fell 1.10% to USD 104.40 a barrel. The continuing squeeze on US gasoline, diesel and other distillates is another supportive factor With tensions seemingly ratcheting higher after Russia sanctioned ex-Gazprom JVs in Europe, along with reduced trans-Ukraine pipeline flows, there is limited downside for oil prices in the near term. The continuing squeeze on US gasoline, diesel and other distillates is another supportive factor. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Brent crude has formed a nice trendline support going back to January 2022 at USD 101.50, while WTI has formed the same pattern at USD 98.50 a barrel. Resistance remains at USD 114.75 and USD 111.50 a barrel respectively. Failure of the respective USD 101.50 and USD 98.50 trendline supports is likely to provoke a much stronger test of USD 100.00 for Brent, and USD 95.00 for WTI this time around. Eastern European tensions mean this is not my base case, however. I am sticking to my broader calls for the past two months. Brent crude remaining between USD 100.00 to USD 120.00, and WTI between USD 95.00 and USD 115.00 a barrel. Gold survives another day Gold probed the downside overnight, testing support in the USD 1835.00 an ounce region, before rallying to a 0.75% gain, closing at USD 1852.00 an ounce as US yields fell and risk-hedging flows appeared. In Asia gold is relatively quiet compared to the volatility seen in other asset classes today. It has edged 0.17% lower to USD 1848.20 an ounce. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Gold’s support critical near-term support remains the triangle apex at USD 1835.00, the breakout of which in early February, signalled the gold rally to USD 2060.00 an ounce. Its importance is confirmed by the nearby 200-day moving average (DMA), today at USD 1836.00 an ounce. A daily close under USD 1835.00 would be an ominous technical development. Gold has resistance at USD 1860.00 and USD 1884.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average Failure of USD 1835.00 sets up a test of support at USD 1820.00 and then potentially USD 1780.00 an ounce. Failure of the latter suggests a deeper correction to USD 1700.00. Gold has resistance at USD 1860.00 and USD 1884.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. If the risk-aversion selloff sweeping other asset classes, notably cryptos, accelerates, gold does stand to benefit. Especially is haven buyers also pile into US bond markets, pushing the US yield curve lower. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
The Oil Market Opened Today With A Gap, What Happen Next?

The ugly crypto meltdown | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 12.05.2022 11:03
US inflation data didn’t print a soft-enough figure to reverse the market selloff. Disappointing US inflation data sent another shock wave to the US stock markets sending all major US indices tumbling on Wednesday. The S&P500 lost more than 1.5%, while Nasdaq tumbled more than 3%. Bitcoin slumped below the 2021 lows on the back of a broad-based risk-off selloff, and panic due to TerraUSD losing its dollar peg earlier this week. The US dollar remained upbeat, and the dollar index returned above the 104 mark as the lower-than-expected cool down in the US inflation figure revived the Fed hawks. Gold rebounded from the 200-DMA, as the US 10-year yield eased despite yesterday’s higher-than-expected inflation print in the US The pound-dollar is testing the 1.22 this morning as the UK-European relationship is souring on the Northern Ireland headache. Gold rebounded from the 200-DMA, as the US 10-year yield eased despite yesterday’s higher-than-expected inflation print in the US, as US crude saw a decent dip buying interest below the $100 per barrel, even with the souring prospects of a healthy global economic recovery. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM   Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Panic in cryptocurrencies as Terra loses dollar peg 2:22 Coinbase down on SEC filing about bankruptcy 4:08 Markets down on softer cool down in US inflation 6:37 Disney down, Rivian up after earnings announcement 7:25 USD up, pound down on souring EU-UK relations 8:23 Gold, oil rebound Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Price Of Gold Is Now Bouncing Higher But Trend Remains Controlled By Bears

Gold Price Fails Essential Support, But The Bulls Still Have A Chance | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.05.2022 11:34
A sell-off in the equity market and a new wave of flight to the dollar on Thursday provided the perfect combination to knock out gold, which slipped to $1810 in thin trading on Friday morning, falling to its lowest level since early February. The current decline in the price makes us keep a close eye on further developments Right now, it’s up to gold to decide whether we see a double top formation or whether the bulls are gaining strength and liquidity ahead of a new multi-month rising momentum. The current decline in the price makes us keep a close eye on further developments. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM A consolidation of the week under $1830 would reinforce that signal Yesterday, gold took a sharp plunge under the 200 SMA, which is often a bearish factor for the instrument. A consolidation of the week under $1830 would reinforce that signal. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM A potential bull target, in this case, could be the $2500 area This would open the way for another roughly 25% drop into the $1350 area, the area of the 2015-2018 highs. If we see an uptick in buyers’ in the hours and days ahead, we could say that gold is in a correction. Potentially, a reversal to the upside from these levels could signal the start of a new wave of long-term growth, the first impulse of which was in 2018-2020, followed by a prolonged wide side trend. A potential bull target, in this case, could be the $2500 area.
What Could Boost ETH/USD!? Ethereum - The Merge Is Close! US: Shocking Unemployment Rate. In The Past Month S&P 500 And Nasdaq Increased

Soaring Food Prices!? Indian Crops Limited! Chinese GDP Disappoints, Power Of US Dollar Humiliates Gold Price Attempt To Gain | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 16.05.2022 09:53
Summary:  The strong close on Wall Street Friday has not brightened the mood for the start of this week, as China reported far worse than expected GDP data that soured sentiment overnight. In other news, the global food supply concerns have ratcheted higher as the second largest wheat grower, India, has shut off exports of the food after a recent heat wave has damaged its crop. And in precious metals, the gold rally has fully broken down through all major supports as the strong USD tightens liquidity on virtually everything.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equities rose into the close on Friday with the S&P 500 futures closing above the big 4,000 level, but they are already retreating this morning trading below 4,000 again with the news of a major wheat export ban from India due to a failed harvest putting more pressure on inflation and food costs. Our view has not changed much on equities. We remain defensive and believe investors should fade every short-term rally. Inflation will continue to put pressure on central banks to tighten financial conditions even more from current already tight levels. Commodities are still by far the most critical asset class to get exposure to in your asset allocation portfolio. Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks pared early gains on weak China data. Hang Seng Index (HSI.I), Hang Seng TECH (HSTECH.I) and CSI300 (000300.I) opened higher on news that China has cut the mortgage interest rate floor for first-home buyers and on optimism that a gradual lift of lockdowns in Shanghai will brighten the outlook.  But markets lost momentum on weak Chinese data releases (more below). Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - European equities continued higher on Friday driven by a big sentiment shift in US equities, but Stoxx 50 futures are pushing lower today with the 3,600 level being the big support level to watch. Higher wheat prices (limit up today) could add more pressure on European households and negatively impact consumer confidence. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM USD pairs – the US dollar was pushed lower on Friday as the currency seems to be the great liquidity indicator of the moment and correlates with swings in risk sentiment. Interesting to note to start this week that it has jumped aggressively back higher versus riskier currencies, like AUD (especially due to weak Chinese economic data) but that the Japanese yen is outperforming (more below) as safe haven US treasuries caught a bid to start this week after a modest sell-off. For EURUSD, watching the 1.0341 low from 2017 for whether the path to parity and lower opens up from here. JPY pairs – at times in recent sessions, the JPY has served as an even higher beta currency to risk sentiment than the US dollar, likely because safe haven sovereign bonds have shown fitful signs of reverting to their old behavior as safe havens when the market is suffering a general deleveraging event. Watching whether the sell-off in JPY pairs since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine comes fully undone in coming sessions if yields at the long end of the US Treasury yield curve continue to push lower. GBPJPY has already broken back below its mid-February high, while EURJPY has teased a similar move (the 132.50-133.00). Gold (XAUUSD) trades back to unchanged on the year after suffering the biggest weekly fall in almost a year. The relentless rise of the dollar and the markets belief in the FOMC’s ability to bring down inflation has reduced gold’s appeal and it culminated last week with a drop to a three-month low at $1800. The recent weakness was led by silver (XAGUSD) partly being dragged down by weakness across industrial metals. The loss of momentum and price weakness during the past few weeks had by last Tuesday reduced the hedge fund long to a three-month low and down 58% from the March peak. Gold remains technically challenged with a break above its 200-day moving average at $1838 needed for that to change. Crude oil (OILUKJUL22 & OILUSJUN22) trades lower after dismal economic data out of China highlighted the price the country is paying for the government’s Covid Zero policy, with industrial output and consumer spending falling to the worst levels since the pandemic began in 2020. Brent crude oil remains rangebound within a $100 to $114 range with tight supply and sanctions against Russia being offset by global growth worries, led by China where crude oil processing last month slumped to the lowest level in two years. While US gasoline futures hit a record last week, Iran teasingly has been out saying it can double oil exports if the market needs it. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) – US treasury yields rose Friday on the sudden improvement in risk sentiment but have faded back lower as Asia has stumbled out of the blocks to start this week on ugly Chinese economic data. Every quarter-percent marker on the 10-year yield benchmark graph has seen sticky price action – so 3.00% is support and the next resistance levels are 2.75% and then 2.50% (the benchmark trading this morning near 2.90%). What is going on? Weaker than expected Chinese economic data out overnight. China’s latest economic data spooked sentiment overnight, as April Industrial Production was recorded down –2.9% year-on-year vs. +0.5% expected, and April Retail Sales were down –11.1% YoY vs. -6.6% expected. The Surveyed Jobless Rate rose to 6.1% in April vs. 6.0% expected and 5.8% in March. Residential property sales were down 32.2% YoY. The impact of Covid lockdowns amidst China’s zero Covid policy is clear, although an easing of the Shanghai lockdowns is currently ongoing. Wheat (ZWN2) jumped by the exchange limit of $12.475 overnight after India over the weekend moved to restrict exports, thereby adding further risks to an already tight global market. Just a few weeks ago the market had expected exports this year would almost double from last year’s record 8 million tons, but a record-breaking heatwave during the past month has parched the crop during a crucial period, driving expectations for a slump in yields. Last week the USDA lowered its forecast for US wheat production by more than expected while war-hit Ukraine could see its production and exports slump to the lowest since 2012/13. In addition, European growers have already been struggling with warm and dry weather this early in the season, raising concerns about the output from the world’s top exporter. Adding to all this the dollar, which has risen by close to 10% this year, and the pain for key emerging market buyers of wheat is clear for all to see. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Is Musk looking for an escape route? As we alluded to a couple of times last week on our daily Saxo Market Call podcast the relentless decline in technology stocks was putting pressure on Musk’s acquisition of Twitter as his premium looked more and more outrageous. Over the weekend, Elon Musk said the deal is on hold until verification of the size of bots on the social media platform, and Twitter followed up saying that Musk violated his NDA revealing the bot sample size. In any case, the deal looks fragile at this point. Downbeat US consumer sentiment. The preliminary US May University of Michigan sentiment survey showed the Current Conditions reading drop to a new cycle low of 63.6, a bad miss relative to the 69.6 expected. The reading was only worse for three months during the financial crisis of 2008-09. Expectations fared poorly as well, with a reading of 56.3 vs. 61.5 expected. The longer term inflation expectations component was stable at 3.0%. German Social Democrats suffer historic defeat in regional election in North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous German state. The SPD polled at 27.1% according to exit polls, down over 4% from 2017, while the CDU won almost 36%, up about 3%, and the Greens advanced from 6 to 18%. What are we watching next? Status of crypto market as a sign of weak liquidity conditions: The cryptocurrency market survived last week’s volatility event after “stable” coin TerraUSD was blown up and the largest stable coin Tether suffered its worst challenge with parity since late 2020. Bitcoin broke down well through 30k, but the subsequent rally has failed to carry the price action away from that level, and the crypto space shows a near one-to-one correlation with US equities, which suggests that crypto assets offer no diversification. Stable coins stability and renewed break-down risk remain concerns until that asset class shows a life of its own. Official NATO application from Sweden and Finland. The is a major political event as it ends 200 years of Swedish neutrality and Russia has already reacted by cutting electricity to Finland (around 10% of the country’s consumption but can easily be filled by Sweden and the Baltics) and generally threated NATO with consequences. It seems all NATO countries are favouring to include Sweden and Finland the defense alliance except for Turkey with Erdogan commenting over the weekend that the two countries are housing Kurdish terror organisation. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM Earnings Watch. The worst earnings season since the bottom during the early phase of the pandemic is coming to an end. Data confirms that revenue growth is slowing down and earnings lower due to margin pressure from commodities. This week will be dominated by large Chinese earnings from Meituan, JD.com, Tencent, Trip.com, Xiaomi, and DiDi Global. Monday: Meituan, Ryanair, Recruit Holdings, Take-Two Interactive Tuesday: Engie, Vodafone, Nibe Industrier, Sonova, Walmart, Home Depot, JD.com, Sea Ltd Wednesday: Tencent, Experian, Burberry, Singapore Airlines, Cisco, Lowe’s, Target, Analog Devices, TJX, Synopsys, Copart, Trip.com Thursday: Xiaomi, Generali, National Grid, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, Ross Stores, DiDi Global Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0840 – ECB's Lane and Panetta to speak 1200 – Poland Apr. CPI 1215 – Canada Apr. Housing Starts 1230 – US May Empire Manufacturing 1255 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) speaking 1300 – Canada Apr. Existing Home Sales 1415 – UK Bank of England Governor Bailey and other MPC members to speak 0130 – Australia RBA meeting minutes Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Saxo Bank
KOG Report:  The week ahead for GOLD!! - 15.05.2022

KOG Report: The week ahead for GOLD!! - 15.05.2022

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 15.05.2022 19:40
In last week’s KOG Report we suggested we wanted to see some bullish momentum to target the higher resistance levels before then coming down to swoop the low. We wanted higher into the 1900s where we wanted to take the long-term short position and said we would treat it level to level following Excalibur. We had our mark on 1850 and suggested that this level will see a reaction in price, as you can see the market tested it but only gave a small bounce before breaking it and then turning it into resistance. We had lower targets of 1845, 1833 and 1821 and mentioned we had a lower target of 1790. All but one of these lower targets have been met, the 1790 level is still active. We completed 22 targets out of 24 trades in Camelot on top of the full house of trades we had last week. So what can we expect in the week ahead? A lot of traders are asking if this is going back up. This is the benefit of KOGs level to level trading strategy following the Excalibur, it doesn’t matter if the market goes to the moon or down to the ground, we trade it as we see it up and down, which is why we give both scenarios. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM We’ll start by saying this is well overdue a retracement from this move that we’ve been seeing. However, we want to see where this finds a short-term bottom before then making the move into the key levels above, for this reason we will be taking shorts with caution into immediate support levels and looking for a confirmed reversal before taking any long positions to target the higher levels. There is a huge chance that Gold can start to range here instead of making that move higher, so we’ll trade it how we see it this week with a neutral bias. We have our lower target or 1790 which we would like to see completed and below that 1775 which is also a possibility. We have maintained the bearish view on Gold and our members know that we have targets even lower for this precious metal. We will therefore trade this as usual with two scenarios in mind using the same chart we have been using from last month. Scenario 1: The price pushes down on opening, we will be looking for our 1790 level to complete with the potential for a low around the 1780 price point. If these levels hold and we see a confirmed support then we see this as an opportunity to take the long trade back up towards the 1810, 1820 and above that 1835 price regions. As long as the price stays below the 1850 region we will then be looking to take this back down into our lower targets which we will share over the course of the week. Scenario 2: The market pushes the price to the upside, here we will be looking first for 1810 as the first point or resistance, if this resistance breaks and turns into support there are opportunities to trade this level to level to the upside targeting 1818, 1825, 1832 and above that 1837. The 1830-35 price region is where we want to see a reaction in price and if we find a strong resistance here we feel there will be an opportunity to short the market back down to target that 1790 and 1780 level. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/cUVDp99c-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ In summary: We’re level to level with caution on the shorts unless we get better entries from higher resistance levels and the bias remaining short overall but neutral for this week. We’ll be looking for the price to find some short term support below to either establish a new range or to then begin some form or retracement to the upside with the 1830-35 level being a very important region. As long as the price stays below 1850 we will be looking to target lower pricing on Gold. Range for this week we would say is 1770-1835. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
Norges Bank And Another Hike Rate To Propel The Krone?

(WMT) Walmart Price Dropped Down As The Earnings Turned Out To Be Quite Low. Jerome Powell (FED) Seems To Be Ready To Get His Foot Down Regarding Monetary Policy And Boost US Dollar (USD) Further | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 18.05.2022 09:10
Summary:  Risk sentiment remained strong in the US yesterday, as the major indices closed strongly at a more than one-week high on a day that saw both a strong US Retail Sales report for April and largest US retailer Walmart’s stock punished by the most in a single day since 1987 on a weak profit forecast. Fed Chair Powell said that the Fed won't hesitate to raise rates above neutral if necessary, helping to lift the entire US yield curve and perhaps helping to cool sentiment overnight.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - S&P 500 futures pushed higher yesterday closing the recent short-term selloff cycle that started last Monday but are trading a bit softer this morning around the 4,075 level. US retail sales yesterday showed that the US consumer is still alive and comments from Home Depot’s CEO suggest that the US housing market is still strong despite recent higher mortgage rates with tight supply of homes to last several years. Overall, the dynamics are still the same with tighter financial conditions ahead and hawkish comments yesterday from several Fed members suggest our defensive stance on US equities is correct. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - Stoxx 50 futures closed above its 50-day moving average that we highlighted as the key focus point for the market in yesterday’s quick take. This is the first time since 20 April when technology stocks were staging a comeback with risk appetite before everything turned lower again. If Stoxx 50 futures can manage to stay above this moving average, there might be enough energy for a test of the 3,800. European car sales figures are out this morning and they are still weak which might add a bit of negative pressure among carmakers and car parts suppliers. EURUSD – strong risk sentiment and a weaker US dollar clearly go hand in hand, as yesterday’s market action demonstrated, but the euro got an extra boost from ECB governing council member Klaas Knot saying that the ECB shouldn’t exclude 50-basis point hikes from the menu of options. This drove a strong boost in ECB rate expectations, with end-2022 now priced for a +0.45% policy rate, 10 bps higher than the previous day. EURUSD traded up through 1.0500, a bullish reversal as that was a sticking point on the way down. Still, very heavy lifting would be needed to turn the bearish tide, with next resistance at the prior pivot higher near 1.0640, while more like 1.0800-1.0850+ would be needed to suggest a structural reversal. A new sell-off in risk sentiment will test the degree to which the latest hawkish tile from a growing number of ECB members weighs on the EURUSD exchange rate. USDJPY and JPY pairs – watching JPY crosses and USDJPY closely after US treasury yields jumped yesterday, especially at the long end of the curve, to which the JPY is traditionally most sensitive. Japan’s Q1 GDP estimate out overnight was better than anticipated as nominal GDP rose +0.1% and the economy (in real terms) contracted less than expected. In the JPY crosses, we have seen a wild ride on the recent swings in risk sentiment that now have pairs like EURJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY back near important retracement levels after steep sell-offs last week. These will likely tilt lower if bond yields stay calm and we see renewed risk aversion. Otherwise, the Bank of Japan will likely only come under fresh pressure to alter its policy if the USDJPY rate jumps to strong new highs and, for example, if global oil prices do likewise, increasing cost-of-living in Japan, etc. Gold (XAUUSD) trades lower after Fed chair Powell said the Fed will keep raising rates until inflation is brought under control. His comments helped lift inflation adjusted US Treasury yields with the 10-year real yield rising to 0.25%. The weaker dollar yesterday also helped boost risk appetite with stocks being the main recipients of these flows. For now, the bears remain in control, especially after the rejection yesterday at $1838, the 200-day moving average on XAUUSD. Silver (XAGUSD) meanwhile enjoyed some tailwind from recovering industrial metals with the XAUXAG falling to 83.90 after hitting a 22-month high of 88.5 last week. Crude oil (OILUKJUL22 & OILUSJUN22) tried but failed to break higher on Tuesday after the tailwind from a potential pickup in Chinese demand, as lockdowns begin to lift, was being offset by hawkish comments on interest rates from Fed chair Powell, and news that the US may ease some economic sanctions on Venezuela, a 2m b/d producer in 2017 reduced to just 0.7m b/d at present. The bid, however, returned late in the day when the API published a bullish inventory report that pointed to a continued and worsening tightness in the US crude and gasoline market after they saw stocks falling by 2.4m barrels and 5.1m barrels, respectively. The EIA will release its official report later Wednesday. Dutch TTF benchmark gas (TTFMM2) remains rangebound within a €85 to €110 range despite the fact Europe's gas inventories are rebuilding at the fastest rate on record as the region's buyers outbid competitors from Asia to acquire as much gas as possible at any price. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe total stocks have since the March low climbed by 202 TWh to 446 TWh, and at this rate will surpass the five-year average within the next few weeks. Asia’s LNG buyers have been less active than normal, driven by a combination of stocks being allowed to run down due to soaring prices and lower Chinese demand as its coronavirus outbreaks and lockdowns take its toll on demand for gas. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) - sold off yesterday and took the 10-year Treasury benchmark yield sharply back higher toward 3.00% in the wake of strong US Retail Sales data and amidst positive risk sentiment. If the 10-year yield continues higher after yesterday’s 10 basis point jump, it is worth nothing that the recent top of 3.2% was within a few basis points of the 2018 high for the cycle at 3.26%. Meanwhile, the 30-year T-bond yield closed at 3.185, the second-highest daily close for the cycle, with an intraday cycle high of 3.31%. The US Treasury is set to auction 20-year T-notes later today. What is going on? Fed Chair Powell says “won’t hesitate at all” to take Fed Funds rate above neutral after saying that “what we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way, and we’re going to keep pushing until we see that.” Powell admitted that taking levels above neutral could bring some pain and a rise in the unemployment rate. End-2022 Fed expectations rose about 10 basis points yesterday and sit at 2.82”, just shy of the 2.88% cycle highs from before the May 4 FOMC meeting, at which Powell discouraged the idea of hiking more than 50 basis points at a time. UK Apr. CPI out this morning in line with expectations. The headline year-on-year reading was 9.0% vs. 9.1% expected and 7.0% in March, while the Core CPI was 6.2% as expected and vs.5.7% in Mar. The month-on-month headline CPI was 2.5% vs. 2.6% expected and 1.1% in March. Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, suffers worst single-day price drop since 1987 as it cut its profit forecast, citing margin pressure concerns due to inflation, and the CEO vowing that “price leadership is especially important right now.” Home Depot gains on strong Q1 and better than expected Q2 outlook. The US home improvement retailer gained yesterday on a surprise Q1 comp sales of +2.2% y/y vs est. -2.4% y/y and saying on the conference call that Q2 was off to a strong start; the company says it is not seeing the consumer holding back and sees tight housing inventory lasting for five years. Japan Q1 GDP contracted less than expected. Japan’s Q1 GDP showed a contraction of 1% q/q sa following a 3.8% expansion in Q4, but it was still better than expected. The omicron wave and supply drags created pressures, but the outlook for Q2 is appears to be improving as the economy reopens and pent-up demand boosts consumer spending. UK unemployment drops to a 50-year low of 3.7%. For the first time since records, job openings (1.3 million) outnumber those out of work. In addition, the number of payrolled employees grew by 121,000 between March and April, to 29.5 million. A lot of people have chosen salaried employment over self-employment due to fear of recession and higher cost of living. Wages continue to move upward. But this is not enough to cope with inflation. Pay, excluding bonuses, rose by 4.2 % between January and March while cost of living was at 7 % in March and is expected to jump to 9 % in April. The situation is becoming unbearable for many households. We believe that the Bank of England will have no other choice but to speed up the interest rate hike cycle before pausing perhaps after the summer. As expected, U.S. April retail sales show the U.S. domestic economy is very resilient. Retail sales were out at 0.9 % versus the expected 1 %. After adjusting for monthly inflation, it was at 0.6 %. This is still very solid. There is no sign of imminent recession in the United States when we look at the U.S. consumer. Peloton sees twice the demand for its $750 bond offering. The struggling health company has seen strong demand for its bonds in a sign that risk appetite is still intact in the high yield debt market in the US. Australian wage growth in Q1 slightly softer than expected. The report showed Australian wages rising only +0.7% QoQ and +2.4% YoY vs. +0.8%/+2.5% expected, respectively and vs. +2.3% YoY in Q4. What are we watching next? Earnings Watch. Today’s focus is Tencent given the latest support from the Chinese government including comments yesterday from the Vice Premier signaling support for platform companies. Consensus is looking for Q1 revenue of CNY 141.1bn up 4% y/y and EPS of CNY 2.77 down 5% y/y. SQM is also reporting today and is one of the world’s leading lithium miners earning 41% of its profits from lithium and 59% from fertilizers and plant nutrients including potassium, and as well as other agricultural sector products. Both lithium and fertilizers are seeing high prices due to tight supply-demand situation. Today: Tencent, Experian, Burberry, Singapore Airlines, Cisco, Lowe’s, Target, Analog Devices, TJX, Synopsys, Copart, Trip.com, SQM Thursday: Xiaomi, Generali, National Grid, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, Ross Stores, DiDi Global Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – South Africa 1230 – US Apr. Housing Starts and Building Permits 1230 – Canada Apr. CPI 1230 – Canada Apr. Home Price Index 1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 2000 – US Fed’ Harker (Non-voter) to speak 2350 – Japan Apr. Trade Balance 0130 – Australia Apr. Employment Data Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Saxo Bank
Podcast: BoJ losing control. Geopolitical risks for Tesla

Fed hawks may not let the equity rally extend! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 18.05.2022 10:58
The US equity markets rallied yesterday after taking over a positive session from the Europeans. However, the US retail sales data didn’t necessarily hint at slowing spending, and Jerome Powell didn’t say things that investors would normally like to hear. Powell’s words didn’t hit the investor appetite immediate, but mixed activity in US futures hint that appetite may not remain as strong in the coming sessions. In the FX, the US dollar eased from two-decade highs. Gold trades around the $1800 mark and crude oil bumps into solid topsellers approaching above the $115pb   The EURUSD rebounded past the 1.05 and Cable traded past 1.24. Yet, prospects of higher US rates, and the positive divergence between the Fed and other central banks should prevent the dollar from falling significantly. Eurozone’s final inflation data is due today, and should confirm a rise to 7.5% in April, an eye-watering number which should keep the European Central Bank (ECB) hawks and the euro bulls alert, and help the single currency consolidate its latest gains against the US dollar. Gold trades around the $1800 mark and crude oil bumps into solid topsellers approaching above the $115pb. On the earnings front, the US retailers reveal mixed earnings but they all agree on one thing: inflation impacts activity. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:22 Market update 2:06 Jerome Powell is decided to bring inflation down! 2:48 High EZ inflation to keep euro bulls alert 3:41 ...but the dollar may not ease much! 4:42 Gold under the pressure on rising rates 5:31 Crude oil bumps into topsellers past $115pb 6:47 US retailers reveal mixed results, but agree that inflation is an issue Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Oil dips ahead of OPEC+, gold flat

Oil falls on Venezuala and EU, gold dips | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 18.05.2022 15:30
Venezuela/Europe send oil lower Overnight, oil prices touched multi-week highs until the US announced it was starting a process, potentially leading to an easing of sanctions on Venezuela. That immediately saw oil reverse all its impressive intraday gains and both Brent crude and WTI finished slightly lower on the day. The EU effectively allowing European importers to pay for Russian gas via roubles should take the edge off European gas prices and flow through to oil prices. Brent crude finished 1.05% lower at USD 112.70 a barrel, having tested USD 116.00 intraday. WTI, by contrast, finished just 0.10% lower at USD 113.60 a barrel, having also tested USD 116.00 intraday. Prices are unmoved in Asia. Tight API inventory data and soaring diesel prices in the US have combined to send WTI to a premium over Brent and is likely to limit the downside for both contracts, Venezuela, or not. Tonight’s official crude inventory data dump will now be closely watched, and sharp falls in gasoline and distillates inventories could increase the WTI premium over Brent crude. Brent crude has resistance at USD 116.00 and support at USD 111.50 a barrel. WTI has taken resistance at USD 116.00 a barrel as well, with support at USD 111.50. Any progress on Venezuela’s supply returning to international markets is potentially a game-changer and should mean the top of my longer-term range, at USD 120.00 a barrel, remains intact. Gold’s price action doesn’t inspire confidence Despite the US dollar falling heavily overnight, and risk sentiment rising generally, gold prices fell 0.53% to USD 1815.00 an ounce overnight, easing to USD 1814.50 in Asia. US yields climbing higher may have played a part, but the direction of the US dollar has been more important of late. When gold falls as the US dollar falls heavily, we should all take that as a warning sign, suggesting lower prices are the path of least resistance. As such, I believe gold’s downside risks have ratcheted higher. Support lies at USD 1789.00, followed by USD 1780.00 an ounce. Failure of the latter suggests a deeper correction to USD 1700.00. That move could occur quite quickly if USD 1780.00 fails. Gold has resistance at USD 1836.00, followed by the 200-DMA at USD 1836.80, and then USD 1850.00 an ounce. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Price Of Gold Is Now Bouncing Higher But Trend Remains Controlled By Bears

Gold pounces on stock market malaise | Saxo Bank

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 19.05.2022 23:56
Summary:  Gold, in a downtrend since mid-April, has found a tentative bid amid continued turbulence across global stock markets. So far, however, the fresh bid has not been strong enough to rattle some of the recent established tactical short positions. For that to happen the metal needs a runaway upside day or a period of consolidation back above the 200-day moving average, currently at $1839/oz. From an absolute return perspective gold’s year-to-date performance in dollars can be viewed as a disappointing Gold, in a downtrend since mid-April, has found a tentative bid amid continued turbulence across global stock markets. So far, however, the fresh bid has not been strong enough to rattle some of the recent established tactical short positions. For that to happen the metal needs a runaway upside day or a period of consolidation back above the 200-day moving average, currently at $1839/oz. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM From an absolute return perspective gold’s year-to-date performance in dollars can be viewed as a disappointing, but when considering the impact of the stronger dollar and the steep losses in stocks and bonds, any diversified investor with gold is likely to be satisfied. The yield on US ten-year inflation adjusted bonds trades lower with the break below the 21-day moving average at +0.09% During the past month, gold has been suffering from the double blow of a stronger dollar and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) signaling an aggressive pace of future rate hikes in order to combat inflation at the highest level in decades. Fine, if the economy does not suffer too much of a setback, thereby raising the risk of recession. What has changed during the past 48 hours has been dismal earnings news from large US retailers raising the risk of a deeper than expected economic slump. Most recently Target Corp which yesterday plunged the most since 1987’s Black Monday crash. In his comments the CEO sited persistent cost pressures and bloating inventories amid a change in consumer spending as reasons. These developments helped deepen the global stock market rout, and today the weakness has continued, thereby supporting short covering and fresh haven buying of US bonds while the dollar has softened. All developments that has supported the mentioned bid in gold. The yield on US ten-year inflation adjusted bonds trades lower with the break below the 21-day moving average at +0.09% signaling a loss of short-term bullish momentum.  Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM The loss of momentum in recent weeks have seen ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) investors reduce gold holdings in all but one of the last 18 days while money managers in the latest reporting week to May 10 cut their net long in COMEX gold futures to a three-month low. Interestingly the latest reduction was primarily driven by long liquidation with no signs of appetite for naked short selling.  We maintain a bullish outlook for gold given the need to diversify amid a troubled stock market and the increased risk of a policy FOMC policy mistakes driving yields and the dollar lower. From the chart below it is clear that gold has its work cut out, and a great deal of work is needed to mend the chart damage done during the past month. The first sign of improvement would be a break above the 200-day moving average at $1839 followed by $1868, the latter being the first level to signal loss of bearish momentum. Source: Saxo Group Source: Saxo Bank
Forex: XAU/USD Is Rising For The 3rd Day In A Row!

What's Going To Be Gold Price (XAUUSD)? Gold – Back in favour? | Oanda

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 19.05.2022 23:53
Or just a blip? Gold has very much fallen out of favour over the last month as it fell 10% on the back of coming within a whisker of $2,000. But has something changed? We’ve seen plenty of risk aversion in the markets over the last 24 hours, with stock markets falling heavily, and rather than being particularly supportive for the dollar, it’s gold that has performed well which hasn’t really been the case in recent weeks. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM Perhaps that’s because higher inflation and therefore interest rate expectations have been behind all of the gloom in the markets, which is typically bullish for the dollar. Whereas the last 24 hours seem to have seen a shift. Rather than interest rates, it’s economic fears that are driving the negativity in the markets. Higher inflation is squeezing margins which means higher prices. And the Fed has gone from anticipating a soft landing, to softish and now just a safe one. That shouldn’t fill anyone with confidence. And maybe that’s why we’re seeing investors move back towards gold. Of course, we’ve seen plenty of big sentiment swings in the markets, especially this year, so that could change. But it’s possible that gold may be back in favour. The first test of this comes around $1,850 which has been support and resistance in the past and coincides with the upper end of the 55/89-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. This is followed by $1,875-1,900, a break of which would be a strong signal. A break back below $1,800 on the other hand would suggest quite the opposite unless accompanied by very positive economic news which seems unlikely at this point. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
FX Daily: Talking up the euro

US Close – Stocks Near Bear Market, Crude Oil Price Higher On Supply Concerns, Gold Price (XAUUSD) Pops, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Stabilizes | Oanda

Ed Moya Ed Moya 19.05.2022 23:51
US stocks edged lower as Wall Street became more focused over a deteriorating growth outlook that could see stubbornly high pricing pressures for the Fed into a much more aggressive tightening cycle. It doesn’t seem like we will see a deceleration in pricing pressures and that has many traders worried that the Fed will send the economy into a recession.  Right now markets are functioning properly but if we see another 5% decline with stocks, credit conditions will worsen and that could provide the Fed an excuse to stop tightening so aggressively.  Tighter financial conditions will hurt the parts of the economy that are doing well and further selling of stocks could remain the theme if the S&P 500 enters a bear market.  The S&P 500 is looking vulnerable here as more strategists slash their forecasts as recession risks rise.  Fed (Federal Reserve) Fed’s George affirmed the board’s stance that a half-point rate increase pace is appropriate.  The Fed remains focused with fighting inflation and they will remain aggressive with tightening policy until liquidity becomes a concern.  FX (Forex) The dollar is in freefall as investors buy up Treasuries over concerns that the economy is headed for a rough patch. The dollar was ripe for a pullback and today’s across the board weakness might continue a while longer. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM US Data A wrath of US economic data painted a gloomy picture of the economy: Jobless claims rose, the housing market is clearly cooling, another Fed regional survey showed the weakest print since early in the pandemic and the leading index turned negative.  Weekly jobless claims rose from 197,000 to 218,000. The Philly Fed manufacturing outlook fell sharply from 17.6 to 2.6.  Surging mortgage rates and record home prices led to a drop in April existing home sales  Crude Oil Price Crude prices rallied as the EU nears a key deadline to pay for Russian oil with a roubles account.  The oil market just has too many risks to supplies and still a strong short-term travel outlook both in the EU and US.  WTI crude should be well supported at the $100 level as US production is slowly increasing. Recession fears are rising but that impact won’t be felt for quite a while, which means the oil market won’t see imminent crude demand destruction. Crude inventories are too low for oil traders to turn bearish with WTI crude. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Gold Price Gold is acting like a safe-haven again as recession fears are triggering massive demand for Treasuries, which is sending both yields and the dollar lower. The US labor market is showing signs of weakness and that could lead fears that consumer spending will deteriorate much faster than most are expecting. The dollar is getting sold against everything and that is great news for gold. Right now, investors are looking for safety and Treasuries and gold should both outperform in the short-term.   Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin is hovering around the $30,000 level as investors continue to shy away from stocks.  A weaker dollar and bear market stock fears are making Bitcoin attractive again.  It seems the fallout from all the stablecoin drama that sent cryptos sharply lower is finally fading.  Bitcoin looks poised to consolidate here, but bulls should be happy to see prices are not mimicking what happens with the stock market.   Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
This Week's Tesla Stock Split Could Be The Best Moment To Buy The Stock! Twitter Stock Price Plunged!

Could XAU extend rally? Are Apple, Tesla good to short? | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 20.05.2022 10:23
The US equities closed Thursday’s session in the negative following a choppy trading session, as investors’ hearts pounded between buying the dip, or selling further on recession fear. The US 10-year yield declined yesterday, and the sharp retreat in the US yields gave a boost to gold, raising question on whether the gold rally could be sustained, and if yes, how high could it extend. The dollar gave back gains, letting the EURUSD and GBPUSD rally, but the gains may remain short-lived if the dollar skew in market pricing continues. Tesla got kicked out of the S&P’s ESG index, which could have implications on its long-term price potential   On the individual stocks, news that Michal Burry opened a bet against Apple heated conversations about whether Apple is a good ‘short’. And finally, Tesla got kicked out of the S&P’s ESG index, which could have implications on its long-term price potential. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Market update 1:20 Is Apple a good stock to short? 3:50 US yields boosted gold. Is gold rally sustainable? 6:25 FX update: euro, pound up on softer dollar 7:58 Tesla out of S&P ESG index: what does it mean for stock performance? Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 22, 2022

WCU: Comeback week for industrial and precious metals | Saxo Bank

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 20.05.2022 18:11
Summary:  The commodity sector continued to find support this past week, despite the hurricane sweeping across global stock markets where the S&P 500 so far has recorded its fourth biggest drawdown since 2010. Gains this past week were concentrated in industrial and precious metals - sectors that have suffered setbacks during the past two months. In addition, the risk of a global food crisis continues to support the agriculture sector while a tight fuel-product market kept crude oil range bound despite economic growth worries. The commodity sector continued to find support this past week, despite the hurricane sweeping across global stock markets. US stocks posted their biggest daily drop in almost two years on Wednesday, driven by surging inflation, weak earnings and the prospect of aggressive monetary policy tightening hurting economic growth. Nevertheless, the Bloomberg Commodity Spot index managed to climb by 1.6% and, while we are seeing the fourth biggest drawdown in the S&P 500 since 2010, the commodity sector continues to highlight the need for both supply and demand to keep prices stable. With the supply of many key commodities – from grains and coffee to fuel products and some industrial metals – being challenged, the sector is likely to remain supported despite softer growth; especially considering the prospect for a government-supported stimulus boost to a post-lockdown China. Growth in the country has been increasingly challenged by its stubborn adherence to the dynamic zero-Covid policy despite mounting economic and social costs. Gains this past week were concentrated in industrial and precious metals – sectors that have suffered setbacks during the past two months. In addition, the risk of a global food crisis continues to rise, with Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and poor weather conditions being the main culprits for the disruption to a lower supply of key food commodities. The grains sector hit a fresh record high with the Bloomberg Grains Spot Index sprinting to a +30% gain on the year. Soybeans led the rally, followed by wheat with corn registering a small loss in the week. Global worries about a food crisis persist with disruptions in shipments from the Ukraine, one of the world’s most important supplier of high-quality wheat and sunflower oil causing ripples around the world. Ukrainian farmers have almost completed the sowing of spring wheat for the 2022 harvest and the overall rate of this year's spring crop sowing is 25% lower than at the same date in 2021, the agriculture ministry said on Friday. A couple of positive supply news, however, helped ease but by no means remove worries about a global food crisis. Palm oil slumped after Indonesia ended its short-lived export ban. Wheat which earlier in the week surge to fresh highs in Europe and the US on worries about supplies from India saw prices ease on forecast for a bumper crop year in Russia. However, comments from agriculture analysis firm Gro Intelligence that the world only has 10 weeks’ worth of wheat consumption in reserve will keep prices supported. At least until we get some more clarity over production levels in Europe and North America, both areas that have seen a challenging weather-related start to the growing season.In our latest industrial metal-focused update, we wrote that the precious metals sector was looking to China for a rebound and, indeed, this week saw some of the signals that China is starting to turn more supportive. Before then, the Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index had lost 25% since the early March peak, with the main catalysts – aside from global growth worries – being China and its zero-Covid policy. Outbreaks in Shanghai and Beijing have been met with a prolonged period of lockdown, hurting economic growth and creating major bottlenecks across global supply chains.This week in China, we saw retail sales slump 11% and youth unemployment hit a record 18.2%, as well as economists forecasting downgraded GDP. Responding to these developments on Friday, Chinese banks cut their 5-year loan rate by a record 0.15 basis points. Keep in mind, this is happening while the rest of the world is going in the opposite direction, and it highlights the Chinese government’s willingness to support the economy. More support will likely follow as the government seeks to support infrastructure and property projects, which are both critical for industrial metal demand.Around the timing of the early March peak in prices, stock levels of the four major industrial metals held at warehouses monitored by the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 1.77 million tons. Instead of rising as demand according to the price action showed weakness, this level has continued to fall, reaching 1.43 million tons this week – a 19% decline during this time.It highlights our view that a global economic slowdown does not prevent industrial metals from moving higher, despite supply potentially struggling to keep up with demand not only from China, but also from the energy transition away from fossil fuels. A transition that, in name, is green but actually is very black when you consider the number of different metals that are needed in the process. These range from aluminum, copper and nickel to more exotic metals like rare earth minerals, cobalt and lithium.High-Grade Copper: Despite the month-long correction, HG copper remains rangebound, having so far failed to properly challenge key support in the $4 per pound area. As it stands, the recovery this week has taken HG copper back to its 21-day moving average, with a break above signaling a loss of negative price momentum. If realised, it may soon force speculators to cover a net short which, in the week to May 10, doubled to reach a two-year high at 17.7k lots or 201k metric tons. Source: Saxo Group Gold, in a downtrend since mid-April, found a fresh bid amid continued turbulence across global stock markets. During the past month, gold suffered from the double blow of a stronger dollar and the FOMC signaling an aggressive pace of future rate hikes to combat inflation at the highest level in decades. This is fine if the economy does not suffer too much of a setback, thereby raising the risk of recession. What changed this week has been dismal earnings news from large US retailers raising the risk of a deeper than expected economic slump.We maintain a bullish outlook for gold, given the need to diversify amid a troubled stock market and the mentioned potential increased risk of a FOMC policy mistake driving yields and the dollar lower. From the chart below, gold has its work cut out, and a great deal of work is needed to mend the damage done during the past month. However, the first sign of improvement has been the break above the 200-day moving average at $1839 – with the next big challenge being $1868, the 38.2% retracement of the 210-dollar April to May correction.Silver, supported by the bounce across industrial metals, seems to have found its footing following a 22% correction, which – at one point – extended below previous support around $21.50. With speculators having cut their positions to neutral, any renewed upside momentum is likely to attract fresh buying from underexposed funds. Crude oil spent most of the week challenging the upper end of the trading range that has prevailed for the past six weeks. However, relative calm market action during this time has been hiding a market in continued turmoil where major opposing forces have managed to keep it rangebound. During this time, the U.S. government has injected millions of barrels in a failed attempt to suppress the price while Chinese demand has suffered due to its zero-Covid strategy.The fact the market has not fallen below $100 highlights the underlying strength with tight supply of key fuels, self-sanctioning of Russian crude oil, OPEC struggling to increase production and unrest in Libya all supporting the market. With China potentially starting to ease lockdowns and with unrest in Libya still growing, the short-term price risk remains firmly skewed to higher prices.During the past few weeks, the focus has turned from a rangebound crude oil market to the product market where the cost of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel have surged to levels not seen in years (if ever). The combination of refinery maintenance, a post pandemic reduction in capacity as well as self-sanctioning of Russian products have all led to incredible tight markets. Especially in North American refineries, where they are running flat out to produce what they can and, in turn, benefitting from mouthwatering margins.So, despite the prospect for slower global economic growth, the price of crude oil remains supported. If we stick to our wide $90 to $120 range call for Brent during the current quarter, while still considering structural issues (most importantly the continued level of underinvestment and OPEC’s struggle to increase production), this will continue to support prices over the coming quarters. US natural gas had another rollercoaster week, ending up off the highs after twice finding resistance around $8.5/therm. The current price is up by 200% compared to the same time last year, with record exports via LNG, flat production growth and a recent heatwave across the southern states increasing demand for cooling. However, the weekly injection of 89 billion cubic feet (bcf) to 1732 bcf was in line with expectations and helped reduce the deficit to the 5-year average to 15.2%. In addition, the milder weather ahead and Europe suffering from a temporary bout of LNG indigestion could suggest a period of stable prices. However, overall rising global demand and a sharp discount to prices in Europe and Asia is likely to prevent any significant weakness during the coming months. Source: Saxo Bank
Saudi's Are Threatening To Reduce To Reduce Oil Supply!?

Crude Oil Calm, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Rises | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 23.05.2022 14:34
A quiet day for oil markets Oil prices edged higher on Friday in New York, as the persistent squeeze in refined petroleum products in the US, and ever-present Ukraine/Russia risk underpinned prices, with China slowdown and US recession noise limiting gains. Mind you, in one article I read this morning, China’s recovery hopes were supporting oil while China’s slowdown hopes were capping gains. I guess it’s not just equity markets that are very confused right now. I do note, though, that the Brent crude premium over WTI reasserted itself into the end of the week, so perhaps the worst of the US diesel and gasoline squeeze is passed for now. Brent crude rose by 1.10% to USD 112.55 on Friday, gaining another 0.70% to USD 113.30 a barrel in Asian trading. WTI rose 0.40% to USD 110.55 on Friday, gaining another 0.35% to USD 110.90 a barrel today. The price action is consistent with a market that is not strongly leaning one way or another at the moment. Overall, I am expecting Brent crude to bounce around in a USD 111.00 to USD 117.00 range this week Brent crude has resistance at USD 116.00 and support at USD 111.50 a barrel. WTI has resistance at USD 113.00 and USD 116.00 a barrel, with support at USD 108.00. Overall, I am expecting Brent crude to bounce around in a USD 111.00 to USD 117.00 range this week. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News Gold rises on weaker US dollar Gold prices rose on Friday, climbing just 0.24% to USD 1844.00 an ounce. In Asia, they have gained 0.42% to USD 1854.00 an ounce. Although gold’s rally has been impressive over the past week, it has yet to be proven that it is not just the result of a weaker US dollar. The true test of its resolve will be its ability to maintain gains when the US dollar starts rising again. Nevertheless, the technical picture is swinging back to a further test of the upside with resistance at USD 1860.00 and then USD 1885.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. Support is at USD 1845.00 and USD 1840.00, followed by USD 1832.00 an ounce. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Learn more on Oanda
Commodities: Prices Are Rising, Heatwaves In US And China Affects The Production Of Cotton

XAUUSD Prices Rise As Investors Turn To Safer Assets, Cotton Prices, NGAS Prices Still Rising As Concerns Around Supply Continue

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.05.2022 11:29
Summary: Gold prices rose the past week in the wake of a weakening US Dollar. Concerns around cotton supply persist. NGAS prices are still rising as concerns around supply persist Read next: Demand For Brent Crude Oil Rises, Silver Prices Rise, Improved Corn Crop Eases Supply Concerns  Gold (XAAUSD) prices on the rise The US Dollar had a softer start to the week amidst concerns around a slowing economy and the possibility of a recession. On Tuesday U.S benchmark yields rose as equities rallied. Investors seem to be seeking safer investments such as gold as the market awaits the Fed Chairs comments on key economic data, such as, PCI and first quarter GDP. Therefore, the price of gold is rising. XAUUSD Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures prices Cotton prices dropped from their 11 year peak of $158 in early may. There are still concerns around supply as the droughts in Texas continue and global protected supply numbers are also falling, whilst demand is remaining stable in the post-covid world. Cotton Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Increased demand for NGAS is pushing up the price There is a higher international and domestic demand for Natural gas, which is driving the price of the NGAS futures up. The world is experiencing an energy shortage in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine. However, higher production and exports (especially in the US) should help limit the upward price momentum going forward. NGAS Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Fore  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Declines At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The Drop Leaders Were Nike Inc Shares

Global stocks retreat after rebound in previous session - 24.5.2022 | IFCMarkets

Ara Zohrabian Ara Zohrabian 24.05.2022 14:05
Todays’ Market Summary The Dollar weakening has halted Futures on three main US stock indexes are down Brent is edging lower currently as an agreement on Russian oil imports ban still escapes European Union though German economy minister says he expects EU embargo on Russian oil 'within days'. Gold prices are edging up currently Top daily news Equities are pointing down currently as US Treasury yields inch down while markets rebounded on Monday. Amazon slipped 0.03% amid reports it is planning to sublease some of its warehouse space because the pandemic-fueled surge in online shopping has slowed, Microsoft shares rose 3.2% outperforming market on Monday. Forex news Currency Pair Change EUR USD -0.32% GBP USD -0.04% USD JPY +0.37% AUD USD -0.36% The Dollar weakening has halted currently. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, lost 0.5% on Monday. EUR/USD joined GBP/USD’s continuing climbing Monday while the Ifo institute reported German business sentiment continued to improve in May. Both pairs are down currently. AUD/USD resumed its advancing yesterday while USD/JPY continued its climbing with the yen higher against the Greenback currently and Australian dollar retreating. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Stock Market news Indices Change Dow Jones Index -0.59% Nikkei Index -1.14% Hang Seng Index -1.62% Australian Stock Index -0.58% Futures on three main US stock indexes are down currently ahead of U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers survey report at 15:45 CET with the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes inching down to 2.841%. US stock market reversed the selloff yesterday as President Biden said that he was considering easing tariffs on China. The three main US stock index benchmarks booked daily gains in the range of 1.6% to 2.0% Monday led by mega-cap growth shares. European stock indexes are down currently after closing up Monday led by banking and mining shares while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde surprised markets by stating about possible rate hike as early as July. Asian indexes are falling today with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index leading losses while Markit reported Japan's manufacturing activity grew at the slowest pace in three months in May. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Commodity Market news Commodities Change Brent Crude Oil -0.52% WTI Crude -1.31% Brent is edging lower currently as an agreement on Russian oil imports ban still escapes European Union though German economy minister says he expects EU embargo on Russian oil 'within days'. Prices advanced marginally yesterday. US West Texas Intermediate WTI added 0.01% but is lower currently. Brent gained 0.7% to $113.42 a barrel on Monday. Gold Market News Metals Change Gold +0.15% Gold prices are edging up currently. Spot gold yesterday closed up 0.39% at $1852.74 an ounce on Monday.
When The Global Economy Recovers, We Can Expect Demand To Rebound

Crude Oil Rangebound, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Shines | Oanda

Ed Moya Ed Moya 24.05.2022 20:02
Oil looking for direction Oil prices remain directionless as energy traders try to assess how significant the deceleration in economic activity will be for the short-term crude demand outlook. The oil market remains tight but the COVID situation in China points to a gradual pickup in demand and that might keep this market rangebound a while longer. Saudi Prince Faisal bin Farhan noted that the kingdom has done what it can for global oil markets and that should mean production increases will remain slow. Oil prices will likely remain supported above the USD 100 level for the rest of the year. ​ ​ It looks like the only thing that will send oil back to the pre-COVID levels is demand destruction across the world’s largest economies and that probably won’t happen. WTI crude pared gains after a steady stream of weakening US economic data, but the overall outlook is still ok and a recession is unlikely until 2024. Gold Gold prices are surging as Treasury yields plunge following a wave of risk aversion that stemmed from disappointing earnings and deteriorating economic data from the US. ​ Non-interest bearing gold is a safe-haven again and it could be on the verge of a major breakout if prices can recapture the USD 1885 level. A peak in Treasury yields is in place and now the dollar looks like it is ready for a pullback as the ECB is ready to raise rates which is good news for the euro. ​ Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM There might be no stopping gold right now as the wall of worry on Wall Street continues to grow. ​ Gold should remain supported as inflationary pressures weigh further, China’s COVID situation remains a big unknown, and corporate America continues to slash outlooks. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
The Grains Sector Saw Continued Demand| Acceleration In The Sale Of Gold

Crude Oil And Price Of Gold (XAU/USD) Head Higher | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 25.05.2022 14:24
White House unnerves oil markets Oil prices continued to range trade overnight, finishing almost unchanged in New York. Asia, though, has seen both Brent crude and WTI rise. A couple of items seem to be behind the move. A sharp 4.20 million drop in gasoline inventories late in New York from the API Inventory data is likely supportive, with gasoline prices becoming a major issue in the US. Following on from that, White House officials explicitly refusing to say possible crude export restrictions were off the table appears to have spooked Asian suppliers. The last thing the world needs right now is US crude oil export restrictions with global supplies already tight. That saw both Brent crude and WTI spike 1.0% higher in early Asian trade, although those gains have eased as the session has gone on. Brent crude is 0.90% higher at USD 114.70 a barrel, and WTI is 0.65% higher at USD 110.90 a barrel. The White House likely needs to “clarify” its stance, least it creates unintended consequences by pushing crude prices higher. Brent crude, notably, is testing multi-week resistance today. Brent crude is testing resistance at USD 114.70 today, which is followed by USD 116.00, with support at USD 112.00. Failure of USD 116.00 could set up a retest test of my medium-term resistance at 120.00. ​ WTI is taking comfort from the White House stance and is sitting in a USD 108.00 to USD 112.00 a barrel range. Nevertheless, a topside breakout by Brent crude will almost certainly drag WTI higher as well, precisely what President Biden doesn’t want. Gold rises once again Gold had another decent overnight session, buoyed by lower US yields and a still-weakening US Dollar. Gold finished 0.69% higher at USD 1866.50 an ounce. In Asia, some US dollar strength has seen it weaken slightly by 0.40% to USD 1859.00 an ounce. Overall, although I acknowledge gold’s upward momentum, I remain sceptical of its longevity until it manages to hold on to material gains in the face of US dollar strength. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM The technical picture continues to remain supportive, and it seems only a marked US dollar recovery will cap gold’s rally. Gold took out resistance at the double top at USD 1865.00 an ounce which becomes intraday support, followed by USD 1845.00 and USD 1840.00 an ounce. It should now target USD 1886.00, its 100-day moving average. That would open up a test of USD 1900.00, although I suspect there will be plenty of option-related selling ahead of that level. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
US Indices - S&P 500 And Nasdaq Decreased On Friday!

Crude Oil steady, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Dips As US Dollar (USD) Rises | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 26.05.2022 15:59
Oil markets slumber Oil prices had another comatose session by their standards, barely rising from the day before. Nevertheless, both Brent crude and WTI have held on to all their recent gains, suggesting the weaker side is the upside in prices for now. While China slowdown fears are receding in the minds of traders, for now, fears persist around the increasing tightness of the US diesel market, and I suspect not ruling out export controls has unnerved international markets, and rightly so. I expect prices to remain firm for the rest of the week, with the global data calendar fairly light. Brent crude rose 0.60% to USD 114.35 overnight, where it remains in an equally quiet Asian session. WTI rose 0.40% to USD 110.70, adding just 20 cents to USD 110.90 a barrel in Asia. Brent crude has resistance at USD 115.00 and USD 116.00 today, with support at USD 112.00. A rally through USD 116.00 could set up a retest test of my medium-term resistance at USD 120.00. ​ WTI is taking comfort from the White House stance and is sitting in a USD 108.00 to USD 112.00 a barrel range. Nevertheless, a topside breakout by Brent crude will drag WTI higher as well, allowing a test of the USD 115.00 to USD 116.00 resistance zone. Gold weakens on US dollar strength Gold fell by 0.70% to USD 1853.25 an ounce overnight, retreating another 0.45% to USD 1845.00 an ounce in Asia. As I have touched on before, the true test of gold’s underlying strength will be maintaining gains in the face of a US dollar rally. The fall by gold over the last 24 hours in the face of modest US dollar strength does not fill me with confidence. Further US dollar strength could see gold face one of its ugly downside shakeouts. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Gold has nearby support at USD 1842.00, followed by USD 1836.00 an ounce. Failure sees the possibility of a mini-capitulation by longs that could reach as far as USD 1780.00 an ounce. On the topside, gold has resistance at USD 1870.00, followed by USD 1886.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
The Gold Market Is Volatile, There Are Two Possible Developments

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD holds above 200-DMA near $1,850 as focus turns to Friday’s US inflation data

FXStreet News FXStreet News 26.05.2022 16:43
Gold Price is holding above its 200-DMA in the $1,850 area and is back to nearly flat on the week. Traders are weighing the tailwinds of a softer USD and US yields versus strong US equities, as key Friday inflation data looms. How Fed And USD May Affect Gold? Gold Price (XAU/USD) is for now holding just above its 200-Day Moving Average at $1,839 and trading near the $1,850 level, though still with a slight downside bias on the day, despite Thursday’s worse-than-expected US GDP figures and Wednesday’s not as hawkish as feared Fed minutes release. Indeed, in wake of the weak data and modest paring back of hawkish Fed bets, the US dollar is a tad weaker and US yields are nudging lower, a combination that would normally be a tailwind for gold. Stronger Stocks - E.G. S&P 500 But US equities are rallying, with the S&P 500 last trading up around 1.4% on the day and eyeing a test of its 21-Day Moving Average for the first time since mid-April. On the week, the index is trading with gains of more than 3.0% and this appears to be weighing on the safe-haven precious metal. Traders are attributing stock market gains to weak GDP data reducing the need for aggressive Fed tightening and to strong earnings from a few US companies, including retail giant Macy’s. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Either way, the better tone to risk appetite is for now keeping XAU/USD on the back foot. Having been as high as the $1,870 level earlier in the week, spot gold’s gains on the week have been eroded back to only about 0.2% from around 1.2%. But the recent pullback towards the 200-DMA might prove a good opportunity for the gold bulls to add to long positions if they think that hawkish Fed bets will continue to be pared in the weeks ahead and, as a result, the buck and US yields continue softening. If it contributes to the strengthening narrative that US inflation has peaked, Friday’s US April Core PCE report could lead to a further reduction of Fed tightening bets and gold could well end the week back at highs in the $1,870 area. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Amazon Prime Day Is Coming. Important Data Coming From The USA And China This Week.

What's Fed Going To Do!? Which Way Will USD Go? Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Is Still Near $30K | Citi says buy the dip in European & EM stocks! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 27.05.2022 10:18
Fed minutes released on Wednesday weren’t as hawkish as many investors feared: the Fed deciders mostly agreed that inflation is too high and labour market is too tight and that they should raise the rates by 50bps for the next two meetings. But, there was no sign that the Fed would go down the 75bp hike road. US Indices, EUR/USD And Gold Price US indices gained for the second day as the FOMC minutes helped improving the investor mood. Nvidia jumped. But the futures are slightly in the negative at the time of writing, as the rally in energy prices certainly throw a shadow on the latest optimism, keeping the inflation worries tight, as the soaring energy prices are one of the major responsible for the skyrocketing inflation. The barrel of US crude rallied above the $115 mark, and consolidates above this level this morning. The US dollar continues softening, the EURUSD tests 1.0750 offers, gold remains bid above the 200-dma though with a fading positive momentum. Turkish Lira (TRY) The lira, on the other remains, and should remain under decent negative pressure as the central bank insists keeping its policy rate at 14% level. And finally, Bitcoin slides below the $30K mark as the ECB points to financial stability concerns due to cryptocurrencies. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 Fed is not 'that' hawkish after all! 2:54 Market update 4:19 Dark clouds above our head 5:17 Citi says 'buy the dip' in European & EM stocks 7:14 I say 'be careful' with Turkish BIST & the lira 9:00 FX, commodity update: EUR, Gold and Bitcoin Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
In The Oil Market  Prices Are Rising Again And Gold Is Also Gaining

(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rose For Second Consecutive Week, Concerns Around Crude Oil Supply Continues To Drive Price, Soybean Prices Rising

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.05.2022 11:30
Summary: The potential for a dovish Fed later on in the year leaves investors seeking safety in gold. The EU is still trying to reach an agreement for the banning of Russian Crude. Tight Soybean supplies. Read next: Easing Concerns Around Supply Drives The Price Of Both Wheat And Platinum Down, RBOB Gasoline Continues To Rise   XAUUSD futures rise Gold rose further on Friday as it hit its second consecutive weekly gain, the strength in Gold comes in the wake of a weakening US Dollar. The chances of the Federal Reserve Bank easing monetary policy later on in the year has left investors seeking gold as a hedge against future inflation, driving the price of gold up. XAUUSD Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Crude Oil prices continue to rise amidst supply concerns The price of Crude Oil traded above $114 per barrel on Friday. The past week for Crude has seen prices consistently rising amidst concerns over global supply. On Wednesday the EIA released data indicating that the US Crude inventories were lower than expected due to rising exports. In addition the EU is trying to negotiate with Hungary on the implementation of an oil embargo on Russia, with EU Council Charles Michel remaining confident that an agreement can be reached by May 30th. Crude Oil Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Soybean Futures rising Soybeans are facing a tight supply run at the moment, export demand is rising causing the price of soybeans to trade high. As the oil embargo in Indonesia is lited, a certain amount of soybean volume will be added to the domestic market. Soybean Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Potential Frost Causing Concerns Around Coffee Supplies, Crude Oil Demand Is Expected To Rise, Palladium Price Falls Amidst Easing Concerns Around Supply And Demand  Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Fed And US Dollar (USD) Are All About Mixed Feelings, Christine Lagarde And ECB In General May Support Euro Even In July. BoE's Bailey Also Teases A Rate Hike. XAU, XAG And Crude Oil Went Higher As USD Weakened | OneRoyal

Fed And US Dollar (USD) Are All About Mixed Feelings, Christine Lagarde And ECB In General May Support Euro Even In July. BoE's Bailey Also Teases A Rate Hike. XAU, XAG And Crude Oil Went Higher As USD Weakened | OneRoyal

OneRoyal Market Updates OneRoyal Market Updates 30.05.2022 10:14
Weekly Recap It was another bearish week for the US Dollar as the greenback continued to sell off from YTD highs. The FOMC meeting minutes, released mid-week, did little to inspire a fresh rally in the Dollar. While the minutes confirmed the Fed’s hawkish stance and reinforced expectations for further 50bps hikes in June and July, there was little in the way of exciting details to get bulls reinvigorated. Additionally, with the Fed having seemingly turned more hawkish since that meeting, the minutes felt a little outdated. Christine Lagarde, ECB And Rate Hikes On the data front, a string of weaker-than-expected indicators out of the eurozone heightened growth concerns. With ECB’s Lagarde essentially confirming a July rate-hike, recession fears weighed on European asset markets though EUR itself remained well bid. Elsewhere, equities markets generally saw a choppy week though most indices ended the week in the green, benefitting from the weaker US Dollar. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM BOE’s Bailey warned that further rate hikes will likely be necessary in the face of rising inflation. The new fiscal package announced by the UK government this week, aimed at helping households fight rising energy bills, has further increased the likelihood of BOE rate hikes in the near-term. Weaker Dollar, Stronger Crude, Gold And Silver Commodities prices were higher over the week also. Gold, silver and oil all rallied on the back of a weaker US Dollar. With monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks drying up, USD pressure has helped commodities stay afloat recently. Coming Up This Week Australian GDP Australian GDP will be closely watched this week on the back of the recent RBA rate hike. With the bank lifting rates and sounding firmly hawkish in its outlook and assessment, this week’s data might further support growing RBA rate hike expectations. With the country having emerged from one of the longest lockdowns of the pandemic, the economy has been on the bounce-back. However, as we have seen elsewhere, the economy has still been rocked by rising inflation and supply constraints. Traders will be keen to see the extent to which these factors weighed on the economy over the last quarter. BOC Rate Decision The BOC is widely expected to raise rates when it convenes for this month’s meeting mid-week. All 30 economists polled by Reuters ahead of the event are looking for a .5% hike. With this in mind, the focus will be on the bank’s forward guidance. If the BOC gives a clear signal that further hikes are coming in the near future, this should drive CAD higher near-term. However, if there is any indication that the BOC might look to hold off on any further rate hikes near-term, this will likely see cad dragged lower. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM US Non-Farm Payrolls The latest set of US labour market indicators this week will be closely watched as we head to the June meeting. Recent Fed commentary has been decidedly hawkish and it would likely take a major downside shock to change this narrative. Even then, it certainly wouldn’t impact the June rate hike and would likely only factor in forward guidance issued by the Fed. Still, with slowdown fears building, any weakness would no doubt act as a headwind to risk sentiment in the short-term. Forex Heat Map Technical Analysis Our favourite chart this week is the Dollar Index (DXY) The DYX has pulled back from recent multi-year highs and is now sitting on a make-or-break level at 101.94. This level was the 2020 closing high price. While the level holds as support, DXY is likely to recover and continue the longer-term bull trend. Below here, however, there is room for the correction to develop further towards next support at 100.37 Economic Calendar Plenty of key data releases to keep an eye on this week including Australian GDP, BOC rate decision and US Non-Farm Payrolls to name a few. Please see full calendar below for the complete schedule . Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
US Economy, Black Gold, China And Strategic Petroleum Reserve | Gold

WTI And Brent (Crude Oil) Trade Really High, OPEC+ Is Expected Not To Support The Price. (XAUUSD) Gold Price Seems To Pausing And Resembling "The Calm Before The Storm" | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 30.05.2022 14:54
Brent crude rises above USD 120.00 The disconnect between energy prices and optimism in equity markets continues today in Asia. On Friday, oil prices surged once again, driven by an unrelenting squeeze on refined products, notably diesel and gasoline, globally, with the US driving season about to begin in earnest. Brent crude rose by 1.63% to USD 119.20 a barrel on Friday, rallying another 0.70% to USD 120.05 this morning. WTI rose by 0.85% to USD 115.10 a barrel on Friday, rallying another 0.83% higher to USD 116.05 in Asia today. Markets pricing in peak virus in Beijing and Shanghai are behind the rally in oil prices today, with a China reopening likely leading to increased oil consumption. Unlike recent times, markets seem unconcerned about oil moving back to March highs, emphasising how much pent-up risk-sentiment demand there appears to be out there. We can expect no solace from OPEC+ on production increases on Thursday. The grouping cannot pump to meet its present quotas as it is, and a 430,000 bpd increase is all we can expect. Additionally, the EU Russian oil import ban is still a work in progress and if it gets over the line this week, expect supplies to tighten again. As such, the risks are now increasing of a move towards the post-Ukraine highs we saw in February. Both Brent crude and WTI are at the top of my expected medium-term ranges at USD 120.00 and USD 115.00 respectively. A weekly close above these levels would be a major signal indicating more gains ahead. Brent crude’s next technical resistance is at USD 124.00 a barrel, and then USD 132.00, with support at USD 116.00. WTI has resistance nearby at USD 116.70 a barrel, with nothing afterwards until USD 127.00 a barrel. Support is at USD 115.00 and USD 113.00 a barrel. Gold trades sideways Gold seems determined to bore traders to death after another inconclusive overnight range-trading session. It finished Friday 0.13% lower at USD 1853.00 an ounce, before gaining 0.44% to USD 186.75 an ounce in Asia today. Gold’s price action continues to suggest caution, with the US dollar sell-off not translating to any meaningful gold strength. If global risk sentiment turns lower, gold could quickly follow. Gold has nearby support at USD 1840.00, followed by USD 1836.00 an ounce. Failure sees the possibility of a mini-capitulation by longs that could reach as far as USD 1780.00 an ounce. Gold has resistance here at USD 1862.00, ​ then USD 1870.00, followed by USD 1886.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Can Price Of Gold Reach $1900 Soon? Lower Yields And Weaker US Dollar (USD) Makes Dollar Go Higher | FXStreet

Can Price Of Gold Reach $1900 Soon? Lower Yields And Weaker US Dollar (USD) Makes Dollar Go Higher | FXStreet

FXStreet News FXStreet News 30.05.2022 16:41
Gold Price traded with upside on Monday as the US dollar continued to fade despite holiday-thinned trading conditions. XAUUSD was last changing hands near $1,860 and eyeing recent highs having found decent support at its 21 and 200 DMAs. Should market participants continue to pare Fed tightening bets, gold could reclaim $1,900, even if risk appetite also rebounds. Gold Price (XAU/USD) is trading with an upside bias in quiet, US holiday-thinned trade and eyeing a test of last week’s highs around $1,870 per troy ounce. At current levels around $1,860, XAUUSD is about 0.4% higher, having found support earlier in the session at the 21-Day Moving Average (at $1,849.25) and amid continued technical buying after spot prices found solid support at the 200 DMA (at $1,840) last week. US Economic Data Gold’s advances on Monday come despite a positive tone to global macro trade and are being driven by a continued weakening to fresh monthly lows in the US dollar. In wake of US Consumer Price Inflation data released earlier in the month and Core PCE inflation data released last week, market participants have become less worried about inflation in the US and, as a result, Fed tightening bets have seen a modest pullback (i.e. for H2 2022 and 2023). Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM US Bonds And US Dollar (USD) Helps XAUUSD US bond markets are closed on Monday, but price action in gold and USD markets suggests that yields will probably open the week lower, a continuation of the weakening trend that has, in tandem with the recent weakening of the US dollar, boosted XAUUSD by over 4.0% from sub-$1,790 mid-month lows. US data will be in focus this week with various tier one releases including the May ISM Manufacturing PMI survey and official May labour market report all out later in the week. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Inflation Analysts argued that should the trends of easing US inflation fears, easing Fed tightening bets and subsequently, more downside in US yields and the buck continue, that could be a bullish medium-term driver for gold, even if it also boosts risk appetite (i.e. US equities). With XAUUSD having found such strong support at its 21 and 200 DMAs, the outlook for further upside towards the 50 DMA near $1,900 looks good. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Commodities: Prices Are Rising, Heatwaves In US And China Affects The Production Of Cotton

XAUUSD Prices Fall As The US Dollar Rebounds, Inflationary Pressures Driving Cotton Demand Down, NGAS Price Rising

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.05.2022 12:29
Summary: The US Dollar’s rebound and stronger treasury yields have caused the price of gold to fall. Cotton prices are falling due to decreasing demand and improved supplies. NGAS on the rise again. Read next: Some EU Governments Are Still In Favour Of Banning Russian Brent Crude Oil, Investors Turning To Silver As Demand For Safe-Haven Assets Rise, Corn Prices Fall Amidst Easing Supply   XAUUSD price coming down off its recent recovery Gold prices began to rise late last week and on Monday, however, on Tuesday Gold prices fell in the wake of the US Dollar rebounding and stronger US Treasury yields. Gold has recovered some of the losses it faced earlier on in May due to the surging US Dollar. Concerns around a global recession and the chance of the Fed slowing or even stopping tightening monetary policy later on in the year has offered the precious metal some support. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices falling due to lessening supply concerns Cotton prices are trading around 10% less than their May high, this is due to the prospect of higher supplies thanks to favourable weather in the largest growing regions. More than half of the crop had been planted by May 22nd and was ahead of schedule by this time, therefore offering hope for solid yields. In conjunction, demand for cotton seems to be weakening amidst inflationary pressures. Cotton Jul’22 Futures Price Chart Natural Gas Futures prices Natural Gas prices continue to rise, reaching closer to the peak hit last week. The near 14 year high for Natural Gas came with increased demand and concerns around supply, the price fluctuations are due to decreased demand as the weather changes, robust demand and slow output. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Strong Investor Sentiment Toward The Euro Continues (EUR/USD), EUR/GBP Currency Pair, As China Ease Lockdowns The AUD Outlook Seems Positive (GBP/AUD, AUD/USD)  Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
US Economy, Black Gold, China And Strategic Petroleum Reserve | Gold

The EU's Ban Affects Crude Oil Price, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Wouldn't Have Become A Blockbuster | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 31.05.2022 22:31
Europe’s ban on Russian oil sends black gold higher The announcement that a partial EU ban on Russian oil imports has made it over the finish line sent oil prices higher overnight. Recovering PMI data from China today, and by default recovering energy consumption, has seen the rally continue in Asia. The price action by oil this past week has been ominous, suggesting that supplies of refined products is getting worse, and not better. The EU oil ban on Russia further complicates that picture and I am wondering how long markets can continue bottom-fishing elsewhere while ignoring oil’s price rise. Overnight, Brent crude rose by 2.05% to USD 121.65 a barrel, and today, it has rallied another 1.20% to USD 123.10. WTI rallied by 2.20% to USD 177.65 overnight, gaining another 0.80% to USD 118.55 in Asia today. Brent crude is now a hair’s breadth away from resistance at USD 123.80, after which there is no resistance on the charts until USD 131.60 a barrel. Support lies at USD 116.00 a barrel. WTI has taken out resistance at USD 116.70 a barrel, which now becomes support, followed by USD 116.00. The USD 120.00 region will provide some psychological, and possibly option-related resistance, but there is now nothing on the charts until USD 126.80 barrel. Markets will find no solace from this week’s OPEC+ production meeting, as outlined in yesterday’s note. If China is reopening, and Europe is limiting Russian oil, there is only one obvious direction from here, for too long, ignored by markets. Only a surprise Iran deal, unlikely as they are seizing tankers at the moment, or a capitulation to Venezuela’s autocratic government, could change the supply/demand dynamic. Neither would alleviate the squeeze in refined products underpinning the rally. Gold trades sideways Gold seems determined to bore traders to death after another inconclusive overnight range-trading session. It probed resistance around USD 1860.00 an ounce overnight but retreated to finish just 0.14% higher at USD 1855.80 an ounce, marking another inconclusive session. Ominously, gold has fallen in Asia at the first sign of US Dollar strength, Gold has eased by 0.13% to USD 1853.50 an ounce. ​ Gold’s price action continues to suggest caution, with the US dollar sell-off not translating to any meaningful gold strength. If global risk sentiment turns lower, gold could quickly follow. Gold has nearby support at USD 1840.00, followed by USD 1836.00 an ounce. Failure sees the possibility of a mini-capitulation by longs that could reach as far as USD 1780.00 an ounce. Gold has resistance here at USD 1862.00, then USD 1870.00, followed by USD 1886.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
XAUUSD: What Do We Learn From Ichimoku Cloud Indicator Analysis Of Gold Price?

Is It Possible For Gold Price (XAU/USD) To Reach $1900? How Can Interest Rates And US Dollar (USD) Interrupt Gold Strengthening? | Oanda

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 02.06.2022 08:59
Or a failed recovery? Gold fell heavily between the middle of April and May but then started to recover as interest rate expectations were pared back. How sustainable is the recovery? Gold - Gathering momentum? - MarketPulseMarketPulse It ran into trouble quite quickly around $1,870, at which point it struggled to gather any upward momentum. But after falling back towards $1,830 today, that may have changed. A rotation off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level – mid-May lows to late-May highs – which coincides with the 200/233-day SMA band may signal a resumption of the recovery that sees it test last week’s highs. If so, then perhaps gold could enjoy more of a recovery and a run at $1,900. But that may depend on how the broader markets behave and whether yields and the dollar avoid rising much further. A failure at $1,850 or $1,870 could spell trouble for the yellow metal, especially if accompanied by higher interest rate expectations and a stronger dollar. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Eyes On Iran Nuclear Deal: Oil Case. Gold Price Is Swinging

OPEC+ Leaves Investors And Markets Confused As Russia May Not Hit its Crude Oil Output Quota. Gold Price (XAU/USD) Interacts With Fed's Rate Hike Fears | Oanda

Ed Moya Ed Moya 01.06.2022 23:00
Oil Oil prices are rallying as the crude fundamentals continue to turn bullish, while uncertainty persists with how OPEC+ will handle Russia’s output quota and if the group will be able to deliver more output in the coming months. Economic data from the US shows the economy is holding up, which supports the idea that crude demand should improve and that this will be a strong driving season. OPEC+ needs to figure out how they will handle Russia’s crude output quota, but regardless the group as a whole has limited spare capacity.  This oil market will remain tight until demand destruction becomes an issue, but right now that doesn’t seem like that will happen anytime soon.  Oil rallies, gold turns positive - MarketPulseMarketPulse Gold rises on market jitters Gold is getting its groove back on safe-haven flows as investor worries return that the Fed may not be easing up its rate-hiking campaign anytime soon. Wage pressures in the US are not easing and that should keep inflationary pressures going for a few more months. The war in Ukraine could see an escalation after the US has signaled they will give Ukraine advanced rocket systems.  Gold could thrive as safe-haven flows will only grow as geopolitical risks remain elevated and over fears of aggressive global central bank tightening. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Forex Wakes You Up! (USD) US Dollar Index Is Not Far From 110.00! EUR/USD Is Expected To Be Hovering Between 0.99-1.01

How Have (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price, Gold Price And Stocks Been Doing This Week? | BeInCrypto

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 03.06.2022 13:07
Be[in]Crypto brings you an overview of this week’s price movements for bitcoin (BTC), gold, and our stock pick, GameStop.     BTC While an improvement over the prior two weeks, bitcoin has been struggling to maintain a $30,000 baseline. Trading just below $29,000 on May 19, BTC rose above $30,000 the next day, but swiftly returned below. Over the next two days it trickled upward, before accelerating up to $30,000 by May 24. Hitting resistance again, it dropped back down to $29,000 and failed to recover over the next few days, eventually slipping further down to $28,250 by May 27. While it rose a bit over the following days, BTC spiked on May 30, reaching $32,000 by May 31. Once again, BTC plummeted from there to $29,000 by June 2 and is now trading around $30,000.     Bitcoin’s rise to $32,000 was a result of markets responding to the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in China, in addition to the possibility that the Federal Reserve could loosen its hawkish stance later this year. “Bitcoin’s price action today is not entirely surprising,” said Joe DiPasquale, the CEO of crypto fund manager BitBull. “Not only is it facing pressure from traditional markets, it has also been struggling to breach the resistance zone between $31K-$32K, resulting in a breakdown from the range it set over the weekend.” GOLD The gold price has fared well over the past two weeks. Trading around $1,810 on May 19, it then shot up to $1,845 later that day, before rising even further to $1,865 by May 23. While sinking a bit from there, gold rose a bit higher by May 24 before sinking a bit back to $1,845. Over the next few days, gold reached $1,855, then dropped down further to $1,830 by June 1. However, over the past day, it has surged and is now trading around $1,865.  Gold prices rose yesterday bolstered by a dip in the dollar and data showing U.S. private payrolls rose less than expected last month. “[The job data] is really raising the recession concerns that have been brewing in the market and supporting gold,” said Ryan McKay, commodity strategist at TD Securities. According to ADP National Employment Report data, private payrolls rose by 128,000 jobs last month against a forecast for an increase of 300,000 jobs. GME GameStop shares have trickled down over the past two month, but have surged over the past week. At the beginning of April, GME dropped from $190, and had fallen to $140 by April 18. Despite a brief recovery, it continued to trickle down, hitting $115 by May 1. While maintaining around $120 the next few days, it continued to fall and hit $80 by May 11. It then shot up the next day to nearly $110 and traded between $100 and $90 until May 25. From there it shot up to nearly $150 on May 26, and while it has fallen a bit since then, it is currently trading around $135. During its latest financial results, GameStop reported sales of $1.378 billion, up from $1.277 billion during the same period last year. The company said that new and expanded brand relationships have helped boost sales, in what is likely a reference to its crypto efforts. CEO Matt Furlong said in the earnings call: “We firmly believe that digital assets are core to the future of gaming,” giving a clear indication that the company is going to double down on its digital assets strategy. GameStop will release its highly anticipated NFT marketplace in the second quarter of the year, which should inject a lot of life into the company’s business, having seen a resurgence since last year’s stock incident.  Disclaimer All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.   Source: BeInCrypto
Why Do Central Banks Buy Gold...? Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Decreased On Friday | FxPro

Why Do Central Banks Buy Gold...? Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Decreased On Friday | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 06.06.2022 12:12
Gold lost 1% to $1850 on Friday, declining under pressure from the overall pull from risky assets. For short-term traders, it is also telling that this decline mostly erased the gains of the first few days of the month and prevented the rebound from turning into new upside momentum. Gold came up against the resistance of sellers on Friday, as it did a fortnight ago, trying to move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line from the highs of April near $2000 to the lows of May, below $1790. The following potentially significant level is the $1840 area, where the 200-day moving average passes. In early June, the buyers prevented gold from getting below that line, but it makes sense to expect that the bears have entirely abandoned the idea of breaking below it. It is also interesting that an increase in central bank buying accompanied the fall in the price of gold in April. For April, new data from the World Gold Council showed net purchases by global central banks of 19.4 tonnes after net sales in March. Central bank purchases should not be taken as a bullish signal for the market as regulators often acted as market stabilisers by selling in the early 2000s during one of the strongest rallies. Uzbekistan (+9.4t), Turkey (+5.6t) and Kazakhstan (+5.3t) were the most substantial buyers of gold. Sales were more modest, with Germany (-0.9t) and Mexico and the Czech Republic (-0.1t each) contributing the most. In our view, net purchases of gold by EMs and sales by developed economies indicate a relatively benign financial environment in the global economy. Otherwise, EMs were forced to sell gold to protect their currencies from declines.
European Union Has The Crude Oil Price Cap In Mind. How Could Russia Make Price Go Up?

Oil steady, gold range-trades | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 07.06.2022 12:33
Oil is steady in Asia Oil’s intraday gains overnight were pared back in New York as US yields and the US dollar climbed, leaving both Brent crude and WTI slightly lower for the session. Brent crude finished 1.05% lower at USD 119.95 a barrel, and WTI finished 1.10% lower at USD 119.00 a barrel. Asian markets are very much in wait-and-see mode, with Brent crude slightly higher at USD 120.15 a barrel and WTI edging higher to USD 119.25 a barrel. Whichever way you look at it though, both Brent and WTI prices are nearing post-Ukraine highs, stripping at the days of the initial hostilities themselves. Returning Venezuelan and Libyan production to Europe and North America, should it occur, will not be material enough in the shorter term to force prices lower. Refining margins globally suggest that demand for petrol and diesel remain in heavy demand, with the refining logjam in refined products backstopping crude prices. Additionally, the damp squib OPEC+ meeting outcome, with some production bones thrown to some angry dogs, and a potential recovery in demand from mainland China has got on top of omicron, provides yet more reasons to believe that physical demand will keep prices elevated. Brent crude has resistance at USD 122.00, and USD 124.00, with support distant at USD 116.00 and USD 112.50 a barrel. WTI has resistance at USD 121.00, with distant support at USD 115.00 and USD 111.25 a barrel. Gold’s flip-flop ranging continues Gold continues to bore traders to death as range trading and reversals by a thousand cuts continue. Overnight, a stronger US dollar and firmer US yields pushed gold 0.50% lower to USD 1842.00 an ounce, where it remains in yet another moribund Asian session. The chart picture shows gold is now eroding resistance at USD 1870.00, touching USD 1874.00 an ounce on Friday. But overall, resistance at USD 1870.00 remains intact, followed by the 100-DMA at USD 1889.00, and then USD 1900.00. Support at USD 1844.00 has given way, opening further falls to USD 1830.00  and then USD 1780.00 an ounce. I do not discount a disorderly retreat if the latter fails. Gold remains at the mercy of intraday directional moves by the US dollar and US yields. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
(XAUUSD) Gold Should Be Bullish, NGAS Reaches Highest Price Since August 2008, Cotton Crop Planting Is Ahead Of Schedule

(XAUUSD) Gold Should Be Bullish, NGAS Reaches Highest Price Since August 2008, Cotton Crop Planting Is Ahead Of Schedule

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.06.2022 13:41
Summary: Gold prices rising amidst market uncertainty. Natural gas futures rose to their highest price since August 2008. Demand for cotton is softening due to inflationary pressures and rising prices. Read next: Saudi Arabia Hike Brent Crude Oil Prices, Demand For Safe-haven Assets Is Supporting Silver Prices, Corn Prices At 8 Week Low  XAUUSD expected to rise Gold prices rose during early trading on Tuesday, this rally is expected to last as projections of an economic slowdown pave the way for higher gold prices. A strong mix of talks of a global recession, decades-high inflation and geopolitical tensions should increase the demand for gold due to its safe-haven properties. The rise in gold comes after two days of declining prices thanks to a stronger US Dollar and rising treasury yields. XAUUSD Price Chart Natural Gas facing declining production On Tuesday Natural gas futures rose to their highest price since August 2008, this comes in the wake of higher international demand and declining production. As the northern hemisphere goes into summer, the need for cooling has strengthened which has been a driver for rising prices in the short term. On a global scale, the war in the Ukraine has caused a global energy shortage. The European Union is calling on the U.S to increase their exports to Europe to help lessen the region's reliance on Russian gas. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Demand for Cotton softens Cotton prices have fallen amidst hopes of higher supplies due to favourable weather conditions in the top growing regions. Cotton crop planting is ahead of schedule giving hope around strengthening yields. In addition, it seems that demand for cotton is softening due to inflationary pressures and rising prices. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Oil extends decline, gold edges lower

Oil clutching to US 120, gold drifting | Oanda

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 07.06.2022 18:39
Oil struggling to hold above USD 120 Oil is continuing to struggle around USD 120 on Tuesday, with Brent and WTI very slightly lower. We’ve seen USD 120 broken on a few occasions over the last week but each time it’s been quickly repelled in a sign of momentum starting to run a little thin. The fundamentals remain bullish for oil prices as China continues to reopen and the OPEC+ “production hike” does little to alleviate the tightness in the market. Still, it’s been a very strong run over the last month, with the price up more than 20% from the May lows. We could potentially see some profit-taking in the short-term but it’s hard to imagine it being too severe, barring significant growth downgrades or a surge in Covid cases in China. Gold consolidation continues As has so often been the case in recent weeks, gold is continuing to fluctuate around USD 1,850 today and showing little sign of a burst in either direction. It struggled once more around USD 1,870 on Friday, reinforcing it as a key area of resistance to the upside, while USD 1,830 continues to be the first line of support below. We may have to wait for the inflation data at the end of the week for an interesting move in either direction. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil clutching to US 120, gold drifting - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Is This The End Of A Winning Streak/Bullish Trend Of Gold?

Trading Signal for Gold (XAU/USD) on June 7-8, 2022: buy above $1,842 (21 SMA - descending wedge)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.06.2022 19:23
Relevance up to 16:00 2022-06-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Gold (XAU/USD) is rebounding from the daily low at $1,833 and is now trading above the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA on 1-hour charts. It is currently located at $1,845, making a slight correction after having found resistance at the 200 EMA around $1,850. According to the 1-hour chart, we can see the formation of a descending wedge. The breakout of this pattern could confirm the bullish movement of gold and it could reach the resistance zone of 6/8 Murray around $1,875 in the coming hours. Gold benefited as US Treasury yields have fallen during the European session and are likely to continue their decline during the American session. Additionally, the US dollar index is also showing signs of weakness which favors gold. Consolidation on the 4-hour chart and a daily close above $1,850 could mean acceleration of the bullish move, and the outlook for gold is positive as it could reach the zone of $1,865 and $1,875. Investors are concerned about the rate hike in the US because it reduces the demand for this safe-haven asset that does not generate interest or return. As long as it remains trading below 6/8 Murray, any momentum in gold will be considered a technical correction. The bearish pressure exerted below this zone could send gold lower again. In the medium term, a close above $1,875(6/8) could mean an advance in gold as it could reach the psychological level of $1,900 or even the zone of 7/8 Murray at 1,937. In the short term, our signals remain positive due to the falling wedge pattern. This technical figure should be confirmed if gold consolidates above the 200 EMA. If this happens, we could buy gold with targets at $1,869 and $1,875. The eagle indicator has reached the extreme oversold zone since June 6 which is an imminent sign of a technical correction in the next few hours, supporting our bullish strategy.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/279149
The Grains Sector Saw Continued Demand| Acceleration In The Sale Of Gold

Crude Oil: Both Brent And WTI Increased, Gold Prise Rose, But Still It Trades Quite Low | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 08.06.2022 14:03
Oil is steady in Asia Oil prices rose slightly overnight as tight refined supplies persist in the US, and industrial action in Norway and a shutting down of a Libyan oil field continued supporting prices at recent highs. Brent crude finished 0.75% higher at USD 120.75 a barrel, and WTI rose 0.30% to USD 119.75 a barrel. Asia is once again adopting a wait-and-see position, with Brent and WTI unchanged in regional trading. Oil prices remain at post-Ukraine invasion highs if you strip out the days when tanks rolled across the borders. Returning Venezuelan and Libyan production to Europe and North America, should it occur, will not be material enough in the shorter term to force prices lower. Refining margins globally suggest that demand for petrol and diesel remain in heavy demand, with the refining logjam in refined products backstopping crude prices. A reopening China is also supportive of oil prices. Brent crude has resistance at USD 122.00, and USD 124.00, with support at USD 116.00 and USD 112.50 a barrel. WTI has resistance at USD 121.00, with current support at USD 115.00 and USD 111.25 a barrel. Gold’s flip-flop ranging continues A weaker US dollar into the end of the New York session saw yet another mechanical response by gold, which rose 0.56% to USD 1852.50 an ounce in another snooze-fest session. In Asia, some US Dollar strength had sent it 0.25% lower to USD 1848.00 an ounce in an automatic response. Until we get a material move one way or the other by the greenback, gold’s range trading looks set to persist. Gold has resistance at USD 1870.00, followed by the 100-DMA at USD 1889.00, and then USD 1900.00. Support is at USD 1837, USD 1830.00, and then USD 1780.00 an ounce. I do not discount a disorderly retreat if the latter fails. The wider USD 1830.00 to USD 1870.00 range seems set to continue until Friday. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil edges higher, gold directionless - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Coffee: Brazil And Columbia Are Reducing The Production

(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Falling In The Run-Up To US Inflation Data Release, NGAS Prices Fall But Remain Elevated, Coffee Prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.06.2022 11:12
Summary: US inflation data should offer the market guidance on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike timeline. Natural gas futures prices dropped on Thursday as investors reacted positively to information from the EIA. Coffee futures prices remain supported by limited supplies and general real strength. Read next: Concerns Around Increasing Demand and Tightening Supply For Platinum, RBOB Gasoline, West Is Unlikely To Ease Sanctions On Russia Causing Wheat Supply Concerns Persist  (XAUUSD) Gold prices falling as US Dollar strengthens Gold futures prices eased on Friday in the wake of a strengthening US Dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on the safe-havens appeal in the run-up to the release of US inflation data that should offer the market guidance on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike timeline. The Fed is set to implement two more 50 basis point interest rate hikes at both its June and July meetings, following a move similar to the one in May, which has recently put pressure on gold. Meanwhile, global economic outlook risks that have arisen from the war in the Ukraine, persisting supply chain disruptions, high commodity prices and rising borrowing costs are all factors that are offering gold prices support. XAUUSD Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS futures supported by rising demand and tight supplies Natural gas futures prices dropped on Thursday as investors reacted positively to information from the EIA showing that the natural gas storage is built primarily in line with expectations. NGAS prices faced heavy pressure earlier in the trading week after an explosion at the Freeport oil and gas export terminal in Texas, which is set to leave fuel supplies stranded in the domestic market despite the soaring international demand. Still, NGAS prices remained high this week amidst record demand for power in Texas, a fall in output and an intense rally for NGAS as Russia’s war on Ukraine sends energy markets scrambling. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee is supported by general real strength Coffee futures prices remain supported by limited supplies and general real strength. Coffee dealers indicated that the market remains well supported by a limited flow from both Central America and Brazil, with Brazil, who is the top harvester and grower, lagging their historical average. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingecnomics.com  
Declines At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The Drop Leaders Were Nike Inc Shares

Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Are Falling, Expectations Of Cooling NGAS Demand, Cotton’s Demand Weakening

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.06.2022 11:32
Summary: Gold prices are under pressure from a rallying US Dollar. NGAS prices have dropped as expectations of cooling demand strengthened as the summer season approaches. Inflationary pressures and re-imposed Chinese lockdowns vs Cotton prices Read next: Brent Crude Oil Prices, Silver Prices Hit Lowest Price In Four Weeks, Corn Prices Rise Amid Supply Concerns  XAUUSD prices falling in the wake of broad market sell-off On Tuesday Gold futures are trading at around four-week lows after falling nearly 3% during Monday's trading session. Gold prices remain under pressure from a rallying US Dollar and Treasury yields as investors are bracing themselves for more aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Federal Reserve Bank. Aggressive interest rate hikes have also instilled fears of a recession in the US economy which drove further selling and forced liquidation across the financial markets, including with gold. XAUUSD Price Chart Natural Gas demand falling as the summer season approaches Natural gas prices dropped in the past two trading sessions in the wake of investors' expectations of cooling demand strengthened as the summer season approaches. In addition, a recent explosion at a major Texas LNG terminal has made room for more natural gas to enter the market, due to the facility being offline for at least another 3 weeks. The extra supply in the market could bridge the gap between the current inventory levels and the 5-year average, which has been one of the driving forces behind the quarters natural gas rally. NGAS Futures Price Chart Demand weakening for Cotton Cotton futures prices are trading near 2-month lows due to expectations of higher supply and weaker demand. Cotton demand is expected to decrease due to inflationary pressures and the largest consumer, China re-imposes covid-19 lockdowns. Cotton Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Price Of Gold Is Now Bouncing Higher But Trend Remains Controlled By Bears

(XAU/USD) Has Gold Price Changed? Trading plan for Gold on June 17, 2022 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.06.2022 14:23
Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical outlook: Gold prices rose through $1857 highs before finding resistance late during the New York Session on Thursday. The yellow metal is seen to be trading around the $1846 mark at this point in writing and is expected to find support close to $1830 intraday. Bulls will be poised to resume higher thereafter and hold prices above $1805 interim lows. Gold prices are broadly within a counter-trend rally since the $1,786 low registered in May 2022. The precious metal has successfully terminated the first and second waves around $1,880 and $1,805 respectively. If the above structure holds well, prices are on their way towards $1920 going forward. Gold prices might encounter intraday support around the $1,830 mark, in line with the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of its lower degree upswing between $1,815 and $1,857. Notably, the metal is working on a larger degree downswing between $1,998 and $1,786 and the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement is seen towards $1,920 as well. There is a high probability of a bearish turn thereafter. Trading plan: Potential rally through $1920 against $1781 Good luck!   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280627
Forex: XAU/USD Is Rising For The 3rd Day In A Row!

Crude Oil steady around US 120, Price Of Gold under pressure | Oanda

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 17.06.2022 16:09
Oil steady as European gas prices surge Oil prices are relatively steady at the end of the week, just shy of USD 120. Despite the correction over the last week or so, the market remains extremely tight and the price risks still remain tilted to the upside. With OPEC+ now reportedly missing output targets by 2.7 million barrels per day and setting unachievable targets for the summer, that gap will widen. The pressure in the market isn’t going to ease any time soon. Gas prices in Europe on the other hand have been surging as Russia once again appears to weaponise supplies to Germany and Italy, which remain heavily reliant on it. Both are complying with the rouble payment demands and yet have seen their flows hit heavily, with Gazprom blaming repairs as being behind the drop-off. It comes as both countries attempt to fill up reserves ahead of the winter which some suggest is no coincidence. Gold Price (XAUUSD) struggles after a brief recovery Gold has had a good run over the last couple of days as central banks have played catchup with the Fed, lifting their currencies and weakening the dollar in the process. US yields easing off their highs have also contributed to the greenback paring gains. The dollar remains king though and we’re very much seeing that today with it trading almost 1% higher which has forced gold back below USD 1,850. No doubt volatility is going nowhere with central banks now in panic mode and every piece of data being poured over for further signs of stubborn inflation and economic vulnerability. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil steady around US 120, gold under pressure - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Inflation In Philippines Hit 6.1%, Its Pace Is Record-Breaking. What Are The Predictions Of BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) Monetary Policy?

Gold Price Or FX - What's More Volatile Now? What's Ahead EURCHF And USDCHF After SNB Decision? Price Of Crude Oil Dropped. Awaiting Powell's (Fed) Testimony | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 20.06.2022 10:26
Summary:  Equity markets tried to end last week’s grueling sell-off with a positive flourish on Friday, as oil prices dropped by the most in several weeks and firmness in safe haven bond markets kept bond yields at the low end of the week’s range. But are those developments down to investor concern that a recession is incoming? The week ahead features semi-annual testimony from Fed Chair Powell before Congress and global preliminary June PMI surveys.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Despite extreme volatility in cryptocurrencies and another “stablecoin (USDD)” losing its peg to the USD, US equities futures are starting the week on mild positive note. S&P 500 futures are trading slightly higher at the 3,690 level and will likely try to test the opening price from last Wednesday’s session at around the 3,743 level if risk sentiment remains positive today. There are no important macro events today so trading will be light, also due to today being a holiday in the US so cash equity markets are closed, and potentially take their lead from cryptocurrencies, although we expect the correlation to begin to decline with cryptocurrencies reducing itself to a small and isolated pocket of the market again. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI300 Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) were fluctuating between modest gains and losses. Chinese property names surged with COLI (00688) and CR Land (01109) rising 9% and 8% respectively. According to Beke Research, secondary market home sales volume in China’s top 50 cities rose more than 20% in the first 10 days of June from last month. June Emerging Industries PMI came at 52.5, 3.6pp higher than May. With COVID outbreak, Macao gaming stocks fell. China’s 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate remain unchanged. EURCHF and USDCHF The Swiss franc was in for a positive shock last week after a surprise hike – and a large 50-basis point one – from the Swiss National Bank altered the landscape for CHF traders, suggesting the central bank is less concerned with always lagging the ECB in its policy move and a moderating of concerns about the CHF level versus EUR, as a strong franc is potentially one tool that can help ease inflationary pressures. EURCHF reset lower to sub-1.0200 levels after trading between 1.04-1.05 before last week’s meeting. Focus now is on the parity level that was briefly touched in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. USDCHF is another focus, trading below 0.9700 after trading as high as parity before the decision. The 0.9500-0.9550 area is the next technical focus area there. USDJPY and JPY pairs A very challenging backdrop here for JPY traders, as the Bank of Japan’s insistence on maintaining its negative 0.10% policy rate and more importantly, the yield-curve-control policy by which it caps 10-year Japanese government bond yields at 0.25%, was seen as very JPY negative last week in the wake of a US Fed hiking the most since 1994 and the SNB executing a surprise large hike etc. At the same time, global bond markets rallied hard to close the week, particularly in the dominant US treasury market, with oil markets in a nosedive on Friday, both supportive developments for the Japanese yen. Focus for USDJPY traders remains on the 135.00+ cycle top, which may hold as long as US longer treasury yields are capped below cycle highs. To the downside, last week’s low near 131.50 was close to the prior major pivot high of 131.35. Crude oil Crude oil (OILUKAUG22 & OILUSJUL22) plunged almost 7% on Friday after growth worries signaled by the FOMC aggressive action to bring down inflation spread from the stock market and industrial metals to fortress oil and fuel. A sector which up until now has seen limited contagion risks given the tight supply outlook amid Russian sanction, OPEC+ producers struggling to raise production and lack of refinery capacity. Speculators turned net sellers of WTI in the week to June 14 following several failed attempts to break higher, potentially a signal we have entered another period of consolidation, but still with the underlying risk of eventually moving higher.  Gold Gold (XAUUSD) remains rangebound following a week of high drama that saw dramatic yield spikes being offset by growing unease about the economic outlook with recession worries on the rise as central banks step up their efforts to curb inflation. Focus on the dollar and Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday (see below). Speculators cut bullish futures to a nine-month low ahead of last week’s FOMC rate hike announcement while total bullion-backed ETF holdings on Friday dropped to three months low, both highlighting the current uncertainty about the short-term direction. Copper HG Copper (COPPERUSSEP22) has returned to the key $4/lb support area after falling around 10% during the past two weeks on China and global growth worries. Iron ore (SCON2) traded in Singapore and metallurgical coal in Shanghai, both key inputs to the production of steel have lost around 20% during the same period. China’s slumping property market and the country’s inability to put the coronavirus behind it remain a major headwind, and one that inadvertently is supporting the efforts to curb inflation through lower input costs. Copper, rangebound for more than a year, is in the short-term at risk of breaking lower with the next level of support at $3.86 before $3.50. US Treasuries US treasuries (TLT, IEF) remained firm on Friday, keeping yields at the lower end of the week’s range and near the important tipping point around 3.20% for the 10-year Treasury yield benchmark, which was the prior yield high on the way up. US data surprises have tilted increasingly negative of late and a huge sell-off in crude oil on Friday may drive slightly lower inflation expectations if the lower prices stick. US Fed Chair Powell is up this week with semi-annual testimony before Senate and House committees on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Crypto rout extends with Bitcoin The largest and one of the more stable crypto assets, plunging below the critical 20k level over the weekend after it slid 15% on Saturday. This signals not just further stress in the crypto space but also broader stress in financial markets as liquidity conditions tighten. What is going on? French President Macron loses absolute majority in Parliament After the second round of parliamentary elections completed yesterday, President Macron’s centrist coalition will only win about 245 of of the 277 seats, with a leftist coalition headed by Jean-Luc Melenchon taking 131, and Marine Le Pen’s right populist National Rally at 89 seats.  The euro is taking the news in stride, but this result will hamper President Macron’s reform agenda, including his intent to raise the retirement age and reform the pension system. The tug of war between inflation and recession means room for policy error With the central banks bucking up on the tightening bandwagon last week, we are seeing a more serious fight against inflation which is set to rise further above 9% levels in the UK this week and remains in the 8% range for the US. However, this historic tightening pace following the Fed’s 75bps rate hike last week has meant further fears of an economic slowdown. A slew of weak US data reported last week also aggravated those concerns. Markets will continue to be choppy as investors weigh inflation/recession concerns, but the long-term bear trend is here to stay. The abrupt policy turn also means an increasing scope of policy error. Keeping an eye on corporate credit markets... ... after at least one measure of US high yield corporate spreads rose to a new cycle high last week above 500 basis points above US Treasury yields, above the mid-May high of 482 basis points and up over 100 basis points from the lows in early June. The two most widely tracked high yield ETF’s, HYG and JNK, closed sharply lower last week and are down around 15% (less in total return terms) from their late 2021 highs. What are we watching next? US Fed Chair Powell semi-annual testimony this week before House and Senate committees The Fed Chair will be in the hot seat this week in the required semi-annual testimony before Congress, where politicians on the committees often take a chance to grandstand on their own political positions and observations, but after several months of decades-high inflation and record gasoline prices, will this week’s testimony show that the political pressure on the Fed is mounting? The market will also watch for any new comments from the Fed Chair, although we are just a few days removed from the FOMC press conference. U.S. housing data are out on Tuesday The housing market is in a vulnerable position. Prices are up almost 40 % since the outbreak, mostly reflecting stimulus-fueled demand. But with high inflation across the board pushing consumer confidence downward and mortgage rates surging following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle, the risks of hard landing are tilted on the upside. Over the past few weeks, several large real estate firms such as Redfin Corporation have warned against the risk of slowdown. Expect a drop in May’s existing home sales and perhaps a new plunge in the number of new home sales after disappointing data in April (minus 16.6 %). The U.S. housing market is certainly the most vulnerable segment of the U.S. economy at the moment. It will be key to monitor the upcoming data in order to assess whether there is a material risk of recession or not. May UK CPI is out on Wednesday This will be painful. Expect a new increase to 9.1 % year-over-year in May against 9.0 % in April. Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) hiked rates by 25 basis points. This was expected. But political pressure is increasing on the central bank to do more while other developed market central banks have embraced a more hawkish tone (U.S. Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, National Bank of Hungary, for instance). If inflation continues to rise (which is our baseline), we would not be surprised if we see the BoE go for an inter-meeting 25 basis points hike before the 4 August meet. Other central banks have done it recently, such as the National Bank of Hungary which decided a surprise 50 basis point hike to support the HUF last week. This only eased temporarily downward pressure on HUF. Earnings Watch This week’s earnings calendar is light but there are three important earnings releases to watch and those are Lennar, FedEx, and Accenture providing insights into the US housing market, logistics, and business spending dynamics (if you believe management consultancy is part of business spending). Today: Kanzhun Tuesday: Lennar Thursday: FedEx, Accenture, Darden Restaurants, FactSet Friday: Carnival, China Gas, CarMax Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Switzerland Weekly Sight Deposits 0800 – UK BoE’s Haskel to speak 1300 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1500 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1645 – US Fed’s Bullard to speak 1930 – ECB Chief Economist Lane to speak 0000 – Australia RBA Governor Lowe to speak 0130 – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – June 20, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The Oil Market Opened Today With A Gap, What Happen Next?

Oil moves higher, gold range-trades | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 21.06.2022 12:17
Oil prices start reversing the Friday slump As I outlined above, oil futures have started reversing the Friday price slump as speculative capitulation collides with the reality of tight energy markets in the real world. Brent crude held USD 112.00 overnight, finishing 0.92% higher at USD 114.05 a barrel. It has added another 0.85% to USD 115.15 a barrel in Asian trading today. WTI held USD 108.50 overnight, finishing 0.20% higher at USD 110.05 a barrel. It has jumped 1.20% higher to USD 111.50 a barrel in Asian trading.   Friday’s falls have bought my six-month support lines back into focus. On Brent crude, that is at USD 107.00 a barrel today, just below its 100-day moving average (DMA) at USD 107.95. Ahead of this, it has support at USD 112.00, with resistance at USD 116.00 a barrel. WTI’s six-month support line is at USD 106.25 a barrel, just ahead of its 100-DMA at 105.25. It has interim support at USD 108.50, and resistance at USD 112.50 a barrel.   Of the two, WTI looks the more vulnerable, having fallen further and closed closer to its multi-month support zone. If the US cuts federal fuel taxes this week, or US housing data is very soft, that could be enough to tip the scales lower. It is hard to see either contract moving lower than USD 100.00 a barrel given the state of the physical market. From a technical perspective, I would like to see one of either contract tracing out a couple of daily closes below the longer-term support lines and the 100-DMAs, before reassessing my longer-term bullish outlook.   Gold range continues It was another wax-on, wax-off day for gold overnight thanks to US markets being closed. It edged 0.11% lower to USD 1839.00 an ounce. In Asia, it has gained slightly by 0.12% to USD 1840.60 an ounce as comatose trading conditions continue.   Despite the noise of the past week, it remains anchored in the middle of its one-month range. The overnight price action shows that the inverse correlation to the US dollar is as strong as ever.   Gold has resistance at USD 1860.00 and USD 1880.00, the latter appearing an insurmountable obstacle for now. Support is at USD 1805.00 and then USD 1780.00 an ounce. Failure of the latter sets in motion a much deeper correction, while I would need to see a couple of daily closes above USD 1900.00 to get excited about the upside. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil moves higher, gold range-trades - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Investing In Gold? XAUUSD - Can Gold Price Reach $1700!? | FxPro

Investing In Gold? XAUUSD - Can Gold Price Reach $1700!? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.06.2022 11:45
Despite attempts at rebounding equity markets, moderate pressure on gold has persisted for the third consecutive trading session. This pressure is directly linked to rising long-term bond yields on US debt and several other developed countries. Bonds and gold work like communicating vessels: rising real long-term yields draw capital to the debt markets away from gold. Over the last two years, the inverse correlation between gold and US 10-year Treasury yields has been very strong: gold prices peaked in August 2020, while yields rose from 0.5%. Last week, when the 10-year Treasury yield was rising temporarily to 3.5%, it tested the $1800 area. However, there are several essential points to understand in this correlation. First, the 10-year Treasury yields touched 11-year highs last week, while gold has retreated only to the levels last seen at the start of the year. In other words, an active capital outflow from gold only occurs when yields decline sharply, whereas the long-term trend favours the shiny metal. This correlation can easily be explained by inflation, which eats into the purchasing power of money in the long term. Secondly, 10-year yields are not so much influenced by short-term Fed interest rates as economic growth forecasts. Increased chances of a recession in the foreseeable future have dampened long-term yields. In addition, there are signs that the upward movement in UST yields was too fast, setting up a corrective pullback in the near term. In our opinion, the potential danger for gold is a further tightening of the Fed’s tone, i.e. hints of new steps of a 75-point rate hike and a willingness to keep rates above inflation. But so far, we have seen a significant outperformance of inflation over key rates, and comments from FOMC members indicate a willingness to stop with a tightening in the 3.5-4.0% area, with no attempt to ride out inflation and a reversal to a rate cut as early as 2024. Such outlooks are keeping long-term bond yields in check and, at the same time fuelling interest in a strategy of buying gold during intense downturns. Locally, creeping upward bond yields are working for sellers of gold. This also has a bearish signal in the form of consolidation below the 200-day moving average. However, gold’s resilience drew attention when markets overestimated expectations of a rate hike from 50 to 75 points and multiple buying gains on dips under the 200-day moving average since December last year.
The Gold Market Is Volatile, There Are Two Possible Developments

NGAS Futures Closed At Two Month Lows, Cotton Prices Falling, Global Wave Of Monetary Policy Tightening Puts Gold Prices under Pressure

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.06.2022 15:46
Summary: Natural gas futures prices are dropping. As the dollar strengthens and global monetary policy tightening continues, the price of gold remains under pressure. Cotton demand expected to decrease as supplies are set to increase. Read next: Brent Crude Oil Prices At 5 Week Lows, Silver Prices Affected By Aggressive Monetary Policy, New Concerns Around Corn Supplies  NGAS futures closed at two month lows Natural gas futures closed at their lowest level in two months in the wake of rising domestic inventories. Freeport LNG indicated that it did not expect the terminal to return to full operations until late 2022, however, partial operations could return within three months. The recent explosion at one of the largest US natural gas export terminals is keeping the US supplies, despite ever rising international demand, which is releasing the domestic price pressure. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart   Gold prices falling amidst a wave of monetary policy tightening The price of gold remains under pressure from rising treasury yields and a strong US Dollar. Gold prices fell around 2% last week amidst a global wave of monetary tightening which aimed at bringing inflation down, the wave was led by the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point hike. The gold prices fell due to the fact that investors tend to shy away from the non-yielding metal as interest rates rise. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton demand weakens as supply rises Cotton futures were trading at almost 4 week lows on prospects of higher supplies and weaker demand. Demand for cotton is seemingly weakening across the world as inflationary pressures resume and as the world’s largest cotton consumer, China, re-enters into Covid-19 lockdowns. In addition, the production is due to increase in both Egypt and other West African countries, whilst demand is expected to drop from Vietnam, Mexico and Bangladesh. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
The Oil Market Opened Today With A Gap, What Happen Next?

Crude Oil prices recover, gold price stuck in range | Oanda

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 21.06.2022 16:21
Oil risks remain tilted to the upside Oil prices are around 1% higher, continuing to recover from Friday’s sharp sell-off. The oil market remains extremely tight but it seems the rising threat of recession created a compelling argument for it to correct lower last week. There’s no doubt that a recession could help rebalance the market and pull prices lower but for many, that is not the base case. So any corrections are still likely to quickly see a flurry of buyers, as we’re now seeing. In the same way that Chinese lockdowns slowed rallies in recent months, the increasing threat of recession could do similar over the summer. That said, the risks remain tilted to the upside as supply simply can’t keep up with demand. Gold could be rangebound for a while We’re still seeing plenty of indecision and choppiness in gold. It struggled to build on the momentum of last week’s surge and is now on course for a third day in the red. That’s not a particularly bearish signal, more a reflection of how the week has started in the markets. The absence of the US makes it hard to read too much into the moves until now. The key level to the downside remains USD 1,800, with USD 1,870 the big test above. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the yellow metal fluctuate between these two levels for a while longer yet.   For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil prices recover, gold stuck in range - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Forex: XAU/USD Is Rising For The 3rd Day In A Row!

Price of Gold (XAU/USD) to exit its range soon?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.06.2022 22:55
Relevance up to 18:00 2022-06-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The price of gold continues to move sideways in the short term. It was trading at 1,835 at the time of writing. XAU/USD is trapped in a narrow range, so we'll have to wait for a valid breakout from this pattern before taking action. Fundamentally, the Canadian retail sales data brought some action on the yellow metal today. The Retail Sales indicator reported a 0.9% growth versus 0.8% expected, while the Core Retail Sales surged by 1.3% compared to 0.5% forecasts. Also, the US Existing Home Sales came in at 5.41M above 5.40M expected. Tomorrow, the fundamentals could be decisive. The UK and Canadian inflation figures could force the XAU/USD to escape from the current pattern. XAU/USD Moves Sideways!     You knew from my previous analysis that XAU/USD dropped within a down channel. In the short term, it's trapped between 1,844 and 1,832. As you can see on the H1 chart, the rate registered only a false breakout through the downtrend line and above the weekly pivot point of 1,841 signaling strong downside pressure. Now, it challenges the uptrend line which stands as a dynamic support. Escaping from the current range could bring new trading signals. XAU/USD Forecast! Gold could resume its sell-off if it stays under the flag's resistance and if it makes a new lower low, if it drops and closes below 1,830. Staying above the uptrend line and making a valid breakout above the 1,844 could bring new long opportunities.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/281125
Price Of Gold Is Now Bouncing Higher But Trend Remains Controlled By Bears

Gold fights heroically against adverse conditions

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2022 15:55
Relevance up to 12:00 2022-06-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Respect! This word can express admiration for gold, which, in extremely unfavorable conditions for itself, shows amazing resilience. When the Fed decides to tighten monetary policy at the most aggressive pace in 28 years, the US Treasury market is off to its worst start since the 1970s, and the US dollar is comfortably at 20-year highs, the precious metal should be worth much less. Nevertheless, the "bulls" find the strength to resist the headwind. Over the past 12 months, the USD index has risen by almost 14% due to strong demand for safe-haven assets, the strength of the US economy, and the intention of the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. According to the latest FOMC forecasts, the federal funds rate will rise to 3.4% by the end of 2022. Reuters experts expect to see it at around 3.5%. This implies a 75 bps increase in borrowing costs at least at one of the meetings of the Committee before the end of the current year. Experts polled by Reuters believe that a big step will be taken as early as July. If we add to the high speed of monetary restriction the transition of US stock indices into bearish territory and the rapid rally in 10-year Treasury yields towards 3.5%, it becomes clear why the dollar feels like a king in Forex. Gold is quoted in US currency, the growth of the latter, as a rule, leads to a fall in its value. Forex currency dynamics     Rumors are growing in the market that the US dollar is being used by investors as a tool for hedging stagflationary risks. It is bought in the absence of other alternatives. Only the avoidance of a recession by the world economy and the cessation of the armed conflict in Ukraine can undermine the power of the USD index. In my opinion, there is still an alternative to the US dollar as a means of insuring the risks of a combination of slow economic growth and high inflation. And it's gold. That is why the precious metal jumped after the release of data on US consumer prices for May. And it remains stable against the background of zero growth in US GDP in the second quarter expected by the leading indicator from the Atlanta Fed. Stagflation is a true friend not only to the dollar, but also to XAUUSD. Meanwhile, a significant event took place on the physical gold market: for the first time since February, Switzerland bought precious metals from Russia in the amount of 3 tons for processing. Dynamics of purchases of Russian gold by Switzerland     If we draw analogies with oil, then the news could be viewed as a pullback in the process of ousting Russia from the market. But the role of the Russian Federation in the gold market is negligible compared to oil. Thus, 3 tons purchased by Switzerland is only 2% of the total precious metal imports. Gold, Daily chart     Technically, the Broadening Wedge pattern continues to materialize on the gold daily chart. Falling below the lower limit of the fair value range of $1825–1861 per ounce is a reason for selling.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314205
The Price Of Gold (XAU/USD) Confirmed The Bullish Attitude

Rising Interest Rates Are Inhibiting The Demand For Gold And Silver, Concerns Around A Recession Are Driving Brent Crude Oil Prices Down

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.06.2022 12:25
Summary: Aggressive central banks inhibiting metal demand. Fears of a slowing economy are sending brent crude oil into its second consecutive week of declines. Read next: Demand Is Decreasing For Platinum, RBOB Gasoline, Supply Concerns Around Wheat Are Easing  Demand for gold declining as interest rates rise Gold futures declined on Friday and were set to decline for their second consecutive week in the wake of stronger expectations that major central banks will continue to raise interest rates aggressively in an attempt to control inflation, which subdued the demand for metals. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell reiterates that his commitment to fighting 40-year high inflation is ‘unconditional.’ Gold is usually viewed as a hedge against inflation and as a safe-haven asset during times of economic crisis, however as interest rates rise, so too does the opportunity cost of holding gold. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude Oil facing second consecutive week of declines Brent Crude is on track to decline for the second straight week on Friday in the wake of concerns around aggressive monetary policy tightening and the effects it will have on the global economy and the demand for oil. US manufacturing and services PMIs released on Thursday came in well below expectations which increased fears of a slowing US economy. In addition, investors are remaining cautious amidst signs that global crude oil and fuel supply remains tight. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver prices on the decling As the Federal Reserve and other major central banks continue to rise interest rates in an attempt to tackle rising inflation and risking a global recession, the price of silver is falling. Silver is usually viewed as a hedge against inflation and as a safe-haven asset during times of economic crisis, however as interest rates rise, so too does the opportunity cost of holding silver. Silver Jul ‘22 Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Commodities: Prices Are Rising, Heatwaves In US And China Affects The Production Of Cotton

Gold Prices Struggle To Hold Monday’s Gains, Concerns Around NGAS Supplies Are Easing, Cotton - A Recession Sensitive Commodity

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.06.2022 13:18
Summary: UK, US, Japan and Canada all ban Russian gold imports. NGAS domestic inventories are rising. Favourable weather conditions are causing more hope of solid Cotton yields in top growing regions. Read next: G7 Leaders Discussed A Price Cap On Russian Brent Crude Oil, China Eases Covid-19 Restrictions, Corn Prices Are Trading At 2 Week Lows  Gold prices trading at 2 week lows The price of gold is trading at almost 2 week lows on Tuesday, this comes in the wake of continuous elevated US treasury yields. The metal struggled to hold onto Monday’s gains that came in the wake of the UK, US, Japan and Canada all officially banning the imports of Russian gold, the move has been viewed by the markets as largely symbolic as Russia’s exports to the west have already dried up. Although gold is widely considered as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS price recovery Natural Gas prices rose again, however they remain under pressure due to rising domestic inventories and milder temperatures which weighed on the demand for cooling. In addition, the most recent EIA report showed that US utilities injected more cubic feet of gas into underground storage than was expected. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices due to be impacted by a recession Cotton futures prices dropped to 9 month lows in the wake of growing recessionary concerns and increased prospects of a lower demand. Cotton is known to be a recession sensitive commodity, thus, cotton prices are set to be impacted by major banks’ rising interest rates in an attempt to fight inflation and the slowdown in both consumption and economic activity. In addition, favourable weather conditions are causing more hope of solid yields in top growing regions. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
In The Oil Market  Prices Are Rising Again And Gold Is Also Gaining

Commodities: Crude Oil Price Rallies, Gold Price (XAUUSD) Steady | Oanda

Ed Moya Ed Moya 28.06.2022 16:26
Oil rises as China eases Covid rules Crude prices rallied after China reduced the quarantine time for inbound visitors and as Beijing and Shanghai declared zero COVID cases for the first time in months. ​ China is showing they realize they can’t keep their strict COVID controls. Earlier, Chinese authorities triggered some alarm after noting that the zero-COVID policy could be in place for the next five years. ​ The crude demand outlook is getting a major boost after China cut the mandatory isolation time in half to seven days. ​ The easing of China’s quarantine times could support the idea that Beijing might be getting closer to pivoting away from its zero-COVID policy, but that shift probably can’t happen till closer to the end of the year. Earlier oil edged higher over expectations Libya would not be able reliably export crude as protests spread and as risk appetite returned to Wall Street. The supply side of the oil equation should remain supportive for prices even if OPEC+ sees the Saudis deliver a little more crude to help cover the shortfall from Nigeria and Angola. ​ President Biden’s July trip to Saudi Arabia is mostly for political theater and won’t really lead to a meaningful increase beyond the planned OPEC+ boost of 648K b/d of supply in July and August. ​Gold Gold is struggling for direction today as risk appetite returns to Wall Street as global bond yields rise. ​ Fixed income has been under pressure after ECB’s Lagarde affirmed they are poised to raise rates by 25 bps in July while they can kick off their new bond-purchasing operation. The G7 actions against Russia aren’t hard hitting as they won’t see involvement from China. Gold seems like it will struggle until the peak inflation question is answered. If Treasury yields can retest the earlier highs seen this month, gold might be vulnerable to one last test sub-USD 1800 before the bullish bets return. ​ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil rallies, gold steady - MarketPulseMarketPulse
When The Global Economy Recovers, We Can Expect Demand To Rebound

NGAS Prices See Relief, Cotton Prices Drop As Recession Fears Heighten, Gold Prices Drop As Hawkish Central Banks Continue

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.07.2022 16:41
Summary: Cotton is at its lowest price since last September. Rising inventories causing Natural gas to close at its lowest level since mid-March. Gold prices falling as central banks continue with aggressive monetary policy tightening. Read next: https://www.fxmag.com/commodities/concerns-over-tight-supplies-is-driving-brent-crude-oil-prices-up-silver-prices-falling-favourable-weather-weak-demand-tight-supplies-factors-driving-corn-prices  NGAS prices dropping in the wake of rising inventories Rising inventories causing Natural gas to close at its lowest level since mid-March. The US domestic market has gained an additional 2 bcf of NGAS per day since the explosion at Freeport LNG, according to the company it is expected to return to partial operational capacity in October. During the week ended 24th June, the extra fuel gave utilities the opportunity to inject 82 bcf into underground storage, according to EIA, which beat the median estimate of 74 bcf. NGAS Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart As major central banks continue with aggressive monetary policy tightening, Gold is falling Gold prices fell below the $1,800 mark during Tuesday's trading day in the wake of pressures from imminent interest rate hikes by major central banks and a strong US Dollar. The Federal Reserve bank confirmed market expectations for an extended monetary policy tightening path, with some policy makers even advocating for another 75bps hike in July in an attempt to lower consumer prices. Simultaneously, the European Central Bank (ECB) has also pledged to start raising interest rates in July and is expected to bring its deposit interest rate into the positive side during the third quarter. In addition, tighter financial conditions amongst major economies increased fears of a global recession, pushing investors towards the safety of the dollar and prompting a broad decline in commodity prices. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices impacted by slowing economies Cotton is at its lowest price since last September in the wake of heightened fears of a recession amidst lower demand prospects. The inflation sensitive commodity is due to be negatively impacted by the slowdown of economic activity and consumption As major global central banks are raising rates to fight inflation. In addition, adding to the weighing on the prices is a better crop outlook as favorable weather conditions boosted hopes of good yields in top growing regions. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Commodities: Prices Are Rising, Heatwaves In US And China Affects The Production Of Cotton

Demand Is Rising For NGAS, Strong Supply Prospects For Cotton, Investors Turn To The US Dollar As An Inflation Hedge Instead Of Gold

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 12.07.2022 16:01
Summary: Noord Stream pipeline maintenance causing supply concerns. Decreased cotton consumption from top clothing makers. Gold futures touching near 9 month lows. Read next: Recession Fears Are Affecting Brent Crude Prices, Silver Price vs A Hawkish Federal Reserve, Corn At 8-Week Highs  NGas Prices driven by increased demand Natural Gas futures are recovering from a 3 month low experienced earlier in July, supported by strong international and domestic demand. As the weather gets hotter and demand for cooling increases, the demand for NGas strengthens whilst routine maintenance on the Noord Stream pipeline are contributing to driving prices higher. NGAS Aug’22 Futures Price Chart Strong Cotton supply prospects Cotton prices have been falling in the wake of lower demand prospects as China adopted new Covid-19 curbs adding to global shutdown concerns already in place which have been caused by aggressive monetary policy tightening by major central banks. At the same time, USDA cut the world production expectations for cotton by 450,000 bails for June due to decreased consumption from Bangladesh and Mexico. Cotton supplies are looking strong going forward. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold futures Gold futures are hovering around 9-month lows on Tuesday in the wake of investors choosing the US Dollar as a hedge against inflation and risks around a recession over gold. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy by aggressively raising interest rates have also put pressure on gold prices as a stronger than expected US jobs report and upcoming US inflation data could bolster the Feds plans. Gold Aug ‘22 Future Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Oil extends decline, gold edges lower

Crude Oil's Reaction To The US Inflation, Gold Demand Assumption

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 13.07.2022 21:34
Crude slides as recession risks build The US inflation data caused shockwaves throughout financial markets, with oil also sliding on the back of the release. A recession is now the primary bear case for crude given the tightness in the market and it’s clear here as much as anywhere how serious the economic risk is being taken. Both Brent and WTI are now back below USD 100, down around 20% over the last month, and they may well remain below there which would have been inconceivable in mid-June. Central banks are in panic-tightening mode and the inflation data isn’t easing up. Throw in more Chinese Covid restrictions and the market will start to look far more balanced, just not in the way anyone wanted. Will gold demand soon return? Gold has recovered the post-CPI release losses after threatening at one stage to break below USD 1,700. While this may come as a relief to some, it may not last considering the moves we’ve seen in interest rate expectations, yields and the dollar. The yellow metal is looking pretty vulnerable at the minute but if a recession becomes the base case, that may change. It is a safe haven after all and there may come a point where the economy buckles under the weight of inflation and interest rates and gold will increasingly find itself in demand. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Crude slumps on inflation, gold recovers - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Asian equities are trading soft

Gold Reached $1725! What's The Tendency Of XAUUSD In This Part Of The Year?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 12.07.2022 15:37
The price of gold fell to a new nine-month low on Tuesday, at one point falling below $1725. In the region of $1720-1740, gold has been finding support in the declines of the last 15 months, and the daily charts clearly show that gold sellers have been slowing down lately. Interestingly, gold has been living its life in the last few days, experiencing a sharp drop earlier in the month, but gaining support last week. Judging by the market dynamics, the most aggressive decline of the single currency in the previous week has supported gold buying. Since March, the euro gold price has already found support on several occasions at the approach of the €1700 area, an important milestone, and the area of the high in August 2020, maintaining a substantial downside potential. It would be naive to assume that buying gold now would protect capital in the event of existential problems in the Eurozone. But this assumption is difficult to confirm with history. In 2012, gold was losing with the euro, and it only reversed upwards in the second half of the year following the recovery of the eurozone confidence. Gold has reached the 61.8% of the 2018-2020 growth wave with accumulated local oversold. In such an environment, a short-term rebound is highly likely, which would be true if the dollar also loosens its grip. However, a rebound in the coming days could prove to be a bull trap or not at all. Towards the most pessimistic scenario, seasonality and downside potential on higher timeframes is in favour. Gold rarely changes its chosen trend in March-April, but it often does so in August-September. On the weekly candlesticks, the gold is far from the oversold area, and it is easy to see that we have seen reversals on these intervals when the oversold area is touched. A potential target for the bears could be the 200-week moving average, pointing upwards and now passing through $1650.
Powell signals Fed needs to be nimble, Canada Inflation hits near 40-year high, bitcoin tries to hold USD20k

Concerns Around Russia Halting Gas Flows To Europe Are Growing, Rebounding Cotton Prices, Gold Prices Threatened By Ongoing Economic Uncertainty

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.07.2022 14:12
Summary: NGAS prices are rising amidst supply concerns. Risk of gold experiencing further declines. India’s monsoon season and cotton prices. Read next: IBM Beat Market Earnings Expectations For Their Second Quarter  Natural Gas Prices Rise NGAS futures have risen to levels that have not been seen in more than a month, amidst a demand that has been driven by weather, whilst simultaneously the uncertainty around supply of gas in the Eurozone kept demand for US LNG exports supported. In Europe, fears have been growing around the possibility that Russia will cut gas flows to the continent and jeopardize the EU’s goal to fill 80% of their storage capacity by the next winter season. Reuters has recently reported that Russia's Gazprom has informed its European customers that it cannot guarantee gas supplies due to 'extraordinary' circumstances, a move that Europe describes as retaliation for sanctions imposed on Moscow for invading Ukraine. NGAS Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold Futures Close To one year lows Gold prices have been remaining close to its lowest levels in almost a year and have been facing constant downward pressure from aggressive US monetary policy tightening and a stronger US Dollar which became increasingly more attractive than the non-yielding metal in serving as a hedge against ongoing economic uncertainty. Gold futures also struggled to hold their intraday gains on Monday despite the dollar’s retreat, which was considered as a technical weakness by analysts and in fact could increase the risk of gold experiencing further declines. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices rebounded Cotton prices have rebounded since touching nine-month lows on July 14th as speculators in the commodity market took advantage of the lower prices and the monsoon season in India, the top producer. At the same time investors continue to digest the USDA’s July supply and demand report. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Commodities: Prices Are Rising, Heatwaves In US And China Affects The Production Of Cotton

NGAS Prices Rising, Cotton Demand Falling, Gold Prices Rising As Recession Fears Rise

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.07.2022 11:22
Summary: Cooling demand increases as summer progresses. Low cotton demand driving prices down. Recents dollar weakening drives gold price upward/ Read next: Altcoins: Filecoin (FIL) - What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into the Filecoin (FIL) Platform  Natural Gas US natural gas futures surged beyond the $8.8/MMBtu threshold, edging closer to a 14-year high of $9.5/MMBtu achieved in early May on expectations of a growing need for cooling as the country's weather continues to be hotter than typical. The optimistic prognosis is further boosted by the soaring global demand. Due to turbine problems, Russia's Gazprom announced it will decrease flows via the Nord Stream pipeline, providing only 33 million cubic meters per day, or about 20 percent of its capacity, forcing European consumers to find alternative sources of energy. Additionally, utilities only added 34 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to underground storage last week, significantly less than the 47 bcf median market expectation, according to the most recent EIA weekly inventory data. NGAS Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures trading near 10-month lows The price of cotton futures on the ICE traded close to a 10-month low of 100 cents a pound as traders weighed concerns about poor demand against the possibility of lower production. Amid prospects of dry weather in Texas, the most recent USDA supply and demand report indicated reduced forecasts for output, exports, and ending stocks in the US for the 2022–2023 year compared to projections made last month. In addition, the pink bollworm pest, another major threat to cotton crops in India, attacked in Punjab and Haryana earlier than predicted this year as a result of the lack of moisture during the early stages of the planting season. Fears of a global economic slowdown are expected to reduce demand for non-essential clothes and fabric products. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold prices rise along with recession fears After losing 0.4 percent the day before, gold increased to about $1,725 an ounce on Tuesday as recessionary fears increased. The safe-haven metal gained from recent weakening in the dollar and US Treasury yields. This week, the US Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver a further rate increase of 75 basis points, taking the lead in the worldwide fight against inflation that some feared might push the greatest economy on the planet into recession. As monetary conditions become more constrained and threaten to affect global demand, other significant central banks are anticipated to join the US central bank in raising interest rates quicker. Recent figures from the US and Europe already indicate that economic activity is weakening, while China narrowly avoided a second-quarter loss. In the meantime, gold prices stayed about Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Gold: The Main Trend Is Still Townward But The Bullish Bias Could Resume Again

Gold loses direction

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.07.2022 18:42
Relevance up to 11:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. If the traveler goes astray, he needs a guide. This guide for gold is traditionally not inflation, not geopolitical risks, or global economic growth, but the Fed. Despite the general aversion to the precious metal, expressed in the outflow of capital from ETFs in the amount of more than 100 tons over the past four weeks and in the first speculative shorts since 2019, XAUUSD quotes managed to stabilize near the $1,725 per ounce mark. Investors are eagerly awaiting the Fed's rate verdict. Dynamics of speculative positions in gold     While the latest US macro statistics and comments by FOMC officials have virtually ruled out the possibility of raising the federal funds rate by 100 bps in July, CME derivatives give a 26% chance of such an outcome at the next meeting of the Committee. Investors are interested in what the Fed plans to do in September. Will it follow the ECB's lead into a data-driven policy, or will it continue to use direct guidance? The first option looks bad for the US dollar and good for gold. The second is fraught with new mistakes of the Central Bank but will show its determination in the fight against inflation. The derivatives market gives a 49% chance of a 50 bps rate hike in September, the probability of its increase by 75 bps is estimated at 42%, while 100 bps is at 9%. Which option will Jerome Powell choose? I believe that his team will focus on incoming statistics. In particular, several reports on the labor market and inflation in the US will see the light before the next FOMC meeting. The Fed's verdict will affect not only the dollar, but also the yield of US Treasury bonds, the dynamics of which is sensitive to gold. The fact that more than eight dozen central banks are tightening monetary policy has already reduced the size of the global negative-yielding debt market to $2.4 trillion, down 87% from the $18.4 trillion peak in December 2020. Then gold felt confident trading above $1900 an ounce. Now investors are asking themselves: why hold a non-interest-bearing precious metal in a portfolio when you can buy bonds? Negative Yield Global Debt Market Dynamics         The XAUUSD bulls have an answer to it. Since the beginning of the year, 10-year US Treasury yields have jumped 84%, reflecting the debacle of the US debt market, the S&P 500 has sunk 17%, and gold has lost just over 6% of its value. The precious metal can be perceived as a portfolio stabilization tool in a pronounced stagflationary environment. So the IMF, in its latest forecast, warned that global GDP could slow to 2.6% in 2022 and—to 2% in 2023%, while inflation in advanced economies will accelerate to 6.6%. Technically, the fall of gold below the fair value by $1,710 and the pivot point by $1,700 is a reason to sell it as part of Linda Raschke's Holy Grail strategy. It assumes the formation of shorts at the levels of the lows of the dynamic resistance test bar in the form of EMA.     Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/317318
The EU And The UK Want To Tackle Soaring Energy Prices, Bank Of England Has To Digest UK Jobs Market Data, Bitcoin's Decent Performance Ahead Of The US Inflation Data

NGAS Prices Remain Elevated, Cotton Shortage Anticipated By Companies, Gold Supported By Dropping Dollar

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.08.2022 17:18
Summary: NGAS prices remain supported by increasing demand expectations. Indian cotton crops are threatened. Falling US Dollar and lower Treasury yields supporting gold prices. Read next: 5 Cryptocurrencies To Keep A Watch On: Axie Infinity (AXS), SHIBA-INU (SHIB), Klaytn (KLAY), Sandbox (SAND), Chronoly (CRNO)  NGAS demand expected to fall US natural gas futures continued to decline below the $8/MMBtu barrier due to pressure from record supply levels as domestic producers profited from higher prices. Still, strong domestic and foreign demand continues to sustain the NYMEX complex's fundamentals. Prices have been supported by expectations of an increase in cooling demand due to the United States' above-average temperatures and by Europe's sustained strong demand despite a 20 percent reduction in Nord Stream pipeline gas flows. For refusing to accept its demand for payment for natural gas in Russian rubles, Russia has already stopped exports to Denmark, Finland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, and Poland and cut supply to Germany. Natural Gas Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Companies are anticipating a cotton shortage Due to active buying from weavers, cotton futures on ICE reached 102 cents per pound, the highest level in more than 2 weeks. As companies anticipate a shortage of cotton yarn during the current cotton season, which runs until September 2022, higher production in the fabric and apparel segments and slower production in the spinning mills encouraged purchase. Additionally, the USDA noted decreased projections for US output, exports, and ending stocks for the years 2022–2023 in its July monthly report due to the possibility of dry weather in Texas. The pink bollworm pest, which this year attacked earlier than anticipated in Punjab and Haryana due to the lack of rainfall in the early part of the planting season, is another threat to cotton crops in India. Despite the fact that the global recession is expected to reduce demand for luxuries like apparel and fabric goods, cotton is still 35 percent below the 11-year high of 158 cents/pound reached in May. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold demand boosted by low treasury yields and a falling dollar Tuesday saw gold trading above $1,770 per ounce and hanging at its best levels in four weeks as demand for bullion was boosted by a dropping dollar and low Treasury yields. The Federal Reserve may hike interest rates less aggressively in the upcoming months as a result of recent weakness in US economic statistics, which pressured the dollar and US yields while raising gold prices. As fresh US data continue to show an economic slowdown, this trend is anticipated to last throughout August. Demand for gold as a safe haven was also fueled by weaker manufacturing statistics across major economies and escalating tensions between China and the US before US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Crude Oil Supply Problems Are Reflected In JP Morgan's Forecasts

Crude Oil And Gold: Let's Have A Look At Jeffrey Halley's Commentary - 05/08/22

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 05.08.2022 13:58
Oil prices slump overnight Although OPEC+ was a damp squib, rising recession fears saw oil prices slump once again overnight after a negative global outlook from the Bank of England policy meeting. Both Brent crude and WTI have now comprehensively broken lower through their 200 DMA’s, a negative technical development. Although Saudi Arabia continues raising prices for their crude grades to Asian and US customers in the real world, futures markets suggest this may be a last hurrah. Brent crude slumped by 3.55% to USD 93.55 a barrel overnight. WTI fell by 3.10% to USD 88.00 a barrel. In Asia, the overnight dip in prices has been irresistible to local buyers, sending Brent crude 0.75% higher to USD 94.25 and WTI 1.00% higher to USD 88.90 a barrel. Brent crude broke below its 2022 uptrend at USD 109.00 in early July, and it seems unlikely we will see USD 110.00 Brent again this year, barring Eastern European shocks. The 200-DMA at USD 98.35 is the initial resistance, followed by USD 102.50 a barrel. Support is at USD 93.55, and failure clears the road to USD 90.00 a barrel. Failure of USD 90.00 could trigger another wave of capitulation selling. WTI’s 2022 trendline failed at USD 108.35 in early July, never to be seen again. US recession fears continue to weigh on WTI prices. Resistance lies at USD 95.20 barrel, the 200-DMA, followed by USD 102.00. Support is at USD 87.50 and then USD 82.00 a barrel. As noted in earlier newsletters, the avalanche of USD 200.00 a barrel, end of the world Brent crude forecasts, proved an uncannily accurate indicator of the impending peak in oil prices. Gold rallies, did I just say that? My four days away in Bali have seen gold’s impressive recovery rally continue. Overnight gold rose an impressive 1.45% to USD 1791.50 an ounce, edging to USD 1792.00 an ounce in Asian trading. It continues to benefit from a weaker US dollar, in turn, driven by falling US bond yields, as markets continue to price in peak inflation and a US recession. Notably, gold prices based, mid-July, at critical long-term support at USD 1680.00 an ounce. The ensuing rally remains a powerful bullish technical pattern which seems to be now attracting plenty of interest. Gold should remain well supported on dips to USD 1775.00 now, with a test of USD 1800.00 imminent. ​ Gold’s technical picture suggests it will continue grinding towards the USD 1900.00 region in the coming weeks. Until such a time as bond markets decide that inflation will be stickier than anticipated and yields start to rise again. The first test of that will come in the form of the US Non-Farm Payrolls this evening. A soft US payroll number, though, will likely support gold’s upward momentum, as it is likely to result in another bout of US dollar weakness as yields fall. My last commentary closes with a bullish outlook on gold; who would have thought? And with that, dear readers, all I can say is thank you very much; you’ve been a wonderful audience. Jeff has left the building……. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil slides, gold rally continues - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Gold Retreated From It’s Daily Highs, Concerns Around WTI Crude Demand Continue, Tight Coffee Supplies Driving Prices

Gold Retreated From It’s Daily Highs, Concerns Around WTI Crude Demand Continue, Tight Coffee Supplies Driving Prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.08.2022 18:22
Summary: A higher than anticipated payroll report prompted market movements. Continued concerns around the demand for crude oil amidst economic recession fears. Coffee Futures. Gold Futures retreat from daily highs The combination of a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields caused gold to retreat from its daily highs of $1,795 an ounce to roughly $1,760 on Friday. Market movements were prompted by a payroll report that was higher than anticipated, which opened the door for the Federal Reserve to take an assertive posture to temper an overheating economy. Persistent worries about a worldwide economic slowdown and heightened US-China tensions over Taiwan acted as a floor under prices. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart WTI Crude Oil futures WTI crude futures were trading close to $89 a barrel, slightly up from the 6-month low of $87.5 recorded on Thursday, but still on track to lose over 10% weekly and erase all the gains brought about by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There are growing worries that the demand would be significantly impacted by a worldwide economic recession. Official data revealed that US gasoline demand plummeted significantly below pre-Covid seasonal norms last week, while US crude inventories unexpectedly increased. Additionally, there are indications that supply is increasing because Libya's oil production increased for a second consecutive week. The decline this week also occurred in spite of Saudi Arabia hiking oil prices to record levels for Asian consumers and OPEC's decision to only slightly increase oil supply for September while announcing "severely constrained" spare capacity. WTI Crude Sep Futures Price Chart Coffee stocks limited Due to limited stocks and ongoing worries about declining coffee yields in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading above the $2 per pound threshold. According to the most recent data, ICE-monitored coffee inventories have reached a 23-year low of 712,817 bags. Given the bullish outlook for the commodity, additional upward momentum could be anticipated this year. Coffee recently hit a nearly 10-year high of $2.6. From a previous projection of a +1.2 mln bag surplus, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) has reduced its global 2020/21 supply estimate to a deficit of -3.13 mln bags. Additionally, ICO downgraded its projections for worldwide output while highlighting stronger global consumption. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Forex: XAU/USD Is Rising For The 3rd Day In A Row!

The Goldilocks report

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 05.08.2022 22:06
There’s no such thing as a quiet week in the markets these days and this week has undoubtedly been no different. The jobs report was always expected to be the highlight but the Bank of England gave it a good run for its money on Thursday, hiking by the most in 27 years while putting out some pretty dire economic forecasts. It would appear we have very little to look forward to for the next couple of years here in the UK. While I believe other central banks are slowly gravitating toward the economic reality of soaring energy costs, high and widespread inflation, and rapidly rising interest rates, the BoE has very much been at the forefront of accepting the country’s fate. That’s probably as much a reflection of the fundamental shortcomings as much as anything but the latest forecasts really were especially bleak and may make some other countries, particularly across Europe, a little nervous. The US may already be in a technical recession, depending on your definition, but the economy is still in very good shape. The jobs report is expected to show that once more today, with 250,000 jobs forecast to have been added last month leaving the unemployment rate at 3.6%. The question everyone is asking though is what constitutes an ideal jobs report. That may seem a silly question, but having drifted back into a “bad news is good news” environment where more rate hikes are to be feared as they may cause a recession but a recession is ok as it means potentially fewer rate hikes, it’s no longer that straightforward. With that in mind, perhaps the goldilocks report is one in which payrolls are strong but not overly so (so in line with forecasts), unemployment remains low but wage growth moderates a little. That would certainly fit the narrative of not a real recession while a slight moderation of wage growth could help build a case for inflation indicators easing, allowing for slower hikes into the end of the year. Of course, there are many other factors at play but with oil 20% off its highs and supply chains improving, the Fed may feel that pressures are abating. Of course, a decline in the headline figure is what it ultimately wants to see and there’ll be a couple of opportunities at that before the next meeting in September. Bitcoin only gets a mild lift from the Blackrock deal There was, what has become, a rare good news headline for bitcoin on Thursday after Coinbase was chosen to provide crypto services to Blackrock’s clients. This is a big show of support for an asset class that’s had a frankly terrible year so far. But clearly, there remains strong demand for cryptos which bodes well for the future. In the near-term, it’s not provided much of a lift which is perhaps a little surprising given how much the space has craved some more positive headlines recently but perhaps that’s a sign of the environment. Bitcoin continues to trade around USD 23,000, with a break above USD 25,000 now the next big test to the upside. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. The Goldilocks report - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Price Of Gold Is Now Bouncing Higher But Trend Remains Controlled By Bears

XAU/USD: What Is The Possible Scenario For Gold Price? How Data Shapes Potential Fed Decision?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 05.08.2022 16:25
Gold witnesses aggressive selling and tumbles to the daily low amid the post-NFP strong USD buying. The upbeat report lifts bets for a 75 bps Fed rate hike in September, which further weighs on the metal. The risk-off impulse could offer some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD and help limit further losses. Gold comes under intense selling pressure during the early North American session and plummets to a fresh daily low, around the $1,765 area in the last hour. The US dollar strengthens across the board on a stronger-than-expected employment report and turns out to be a key factor weighing heavily on the dollar-denominated gold. The headline NFP print showed that the US economy added a whopping 528K jobs in July, smashing expectations by a huge margin. Furthermore, the previous month's reading was also revised higher to 398K from the 372K, while the unemployment rate also surprisingly edged down to 3.5% from 3.6% in June. The upbeat macro data lifts market bets for a larger Fed rate hike move at the September meeting, which further contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. The odds of a 75 bps hike jumped to 70% from 40% before the jobs report and triggered a sharp spike in the US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond climbs back closer to the weekly high and exerts additional downward pressure on gold. The prospects for more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed, meanwhile, tempered investors' appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a fresh leg down in the equity markets, which could lend some support to the safe-haven gold and help limit any deeper losses, at least for the time being. Hence, any subsequent downfall is more likely to find decent support near the weekly low, around the $1,754 area, which coincides with a strong hurdle cleared last week.
US Economy, Black Gold, China And Strategic Petroleum Reserve | Gold

XAUUSD: Gold Traders Amid Incoming Monetary Policy Decisions

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 05.08.2022 22:08
Oil slips below USD 90 as recession fears mount Oil prices are marginally higher on Friday after spending most of the week on the decline. It hasn’t been the most bullish week of headlines for crude, whether that be all of the recession chat (most notably from the UK), the new OPEC+ deal or the EIA inventory build. The headlines have all been negative and so the price has continued to fall. WTI has broken below USD 90 to trade back at levels seen before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Clearly, everyone is taking the threat of recession far more seriously as we’re still seeing a very tight market and producers with no capacity to change that, barring a couple. Gold eyeing USD 1,800 ahead of the jobs report It’s been another very good week for gold, despite Fed policymakers coming out in force to try and spoil the party. It seems traders are not particularly interested in being told that rates won’t start falling towards the middle of next year or could still rise by 75 basis points in September despite the shift to data dependency. I mean, considering who’s been right this past 12 months, I can hardly blame them. But gold has certainly benefited and the next challenge is USD 1,780-1,800 which is putting up quite the fight. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil dips under USD 90, gold awaits NFP - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Forex: XAU/USD Is Rising For The 3rd Day In A Row!

XAUUSD: Oh No! Something Made Gold Price Unable To Climb Above $1,800!

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.08.2022 11:41
Relevance up to 08:00 2022-08-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   According to the latest weekly gold survey, prices cannot rise above $1,800 an ounce. Some market analysts said Friday's employment report killed hopes for gold to break the $1,800 level anytime soon.     Ahead of the latest survey results, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said 528,000 jobs were created in July. The data far exceeded the expectations of economists, who had forecast job gains of around 250,000. The report also notes a solid increase in wages. While some analysts continue to see upside potential, many are neutral and bearish. Retail investors remain firmly optimistic about gold. Last week, 16 Wall Street analysts took part in the gold survey. Among the participants, four analysts, or 24%, were bullish in the short term. At the same time, seven analysts, or 41%, were bearish. And six analysts, or 35%, voted neutral. In online polls on Main Street, 579 votes were cast. Of these, 379 respondents, or 65%, expected gold prices to rise this week. Another 124 voters, or 21%, announced a reduction, while 76 voters, or 13%, were neutral.     Economists believe the July jobs report has changed market sentiment as investors now expect the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive monetary stance in September. The CME FedWatch tool shows that there is more than a 70% chance of a 75 basis point move next month. Ahead of the employment report, markets estimated the likelihood of an aggressive move at 34%. Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, has a neutral view of gold prices during the week. Because the latest employment data will make gold investors more cautious. However, he added that he remains an optimist in the long term. Frank McGhee, precious metals dealer at Alliance Financial, is bearish as the precious metal can no longer fight the Fed. However, some analysts remain optimistic about the precious metal, noting that prices remain supportive. Jim Wyckoff said there is still technical bullish momentum in the market, which could lead to higher gold prices this week.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318286
Watch Out Gold Investors! "(...) Friday's labor market report is not good news for gold bulls (...)"

Watch Out Gold Investors! "(...) Friday's labor market report is not good news for gold bulls (...)"

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.08.2022 14:35
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   The US jobs report—the week's most important report, was published on Friday. Economists were expecting an additional 258,000 new jobs added last month. A report from the Department of Labor showed that the US economy experienced solid job growth last month, with more than 500,000 jobs created in July. Friday's extraordinarily strong numbers ease fears that the United States will enter a recession. While this upbeat report bodes well for economic growth, it certainly doesn't address inflation. This changes the mood of market participants, focused on the last two GDP reports. On July 28, the government published a preliminary estimate of GDP for the second quarter. The report showed that in the second quarter of 2022, year-on-year GDP declined by 0.9%. Earlier this year, the BEA reported a 1.6% decline in first-quarter GDP. We must not forget that an economic recession for two quarters in a row is the generally accepted definition of a recession. Fear of a disappointing jobs report put pressure on US Treasury yields, and the dollar's decline was reversed. The dollar added 0.8%, which corresponds to Friday's decline.     Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said Friday's labor market report is not good news for gold bulls, and next week's CPI report will be the next key test. According to Bart Melek, head of commodities strategy at TD Securities, gold has recently rallied on the thought that the Fed will move from hawkish to dovish sentiment. But employment data shows that the US economy is strong, and this may prompt the Fed to act more aggressively, which is not good for gold. The next catalyst for gold prices will be the published report on the US consumer price index this week. Moreover, growing geopolitical concerns in Ukraine and China's reaction to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan may also affect gold prices.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318292
Bank Of England Is Expected To Choose Between 50 and 75bp, Ethereum Arouses More And More Discussions As Merge Is Around The Bend

Higher Crude Oil Demand Is Expected! Some Countries Swaps Gas For Oil

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 12.08.2022 13:55
Brent eyes $100 after mixed headline week The oil market has bounced back this week, with Brent once more flirting with triple-figures. There’s been a lot to digest this week, with Iran nuclear talks ongoing, US inventories rising, US output also rising, the Druzhba pipeline saga and the various forecasts. Even the forecasts themselves offered contrasting views, with OPEC downgrading demand growth and expecting the oil market to tip into surplus this quarter. The IEA, meanwhile, anticipates stronger demand growth due in part to the gas to oil switch as some countries react to sky-high prices. All things considered, the price moves highlight just how tight the market remains and how sensitive it therefore still is to spikes. A deal between the US and Iran could go some way to changing that but I think it’s clear traders are not banking on that given how the talks have gone until this point. A compelling bullish case for gold Gold is holding onto gains despite struggling to capture $1,800. The yellow metal briefly traded above here after the inflation data but it seems traders quickly changed their minds, with risk assets instead being favoured. The fact that it continues to hold onto the bulk of the gains without any significant correction may suggest there’s still an appetite for it, with slower tightening seen as a favourable outcome. This will be an interesting test for gold as $1,800 could represent an interesting rotation point from a technical perspective if there is no desire to see it above here but ultimately the case for bullish gold remains quite compelling. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil rebounds, gold consolidates - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Commodities: Prices Are Rising, Heatwaves In US And China Affects The Production Of Cotton

Commodities: Prices Are Rising, Heatwaves In US And China Affect The Production Of Cotton

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 12.08.2022 16:00
Summary:  The correction that for some commodities already started back in March has since the end of July increasingly been showing signs of reversing, driven by recent economic data strength, dollar weakness and signs inflation may have peaked. With the broad position adjustments having run their course, the focus has returned to supply which in many cases remains tight, thereby providing renewed support, especially across the sectors of energy and key agriculture commodities. The correction that for some commodities already started back in March has since the end of July increasingly been showing signs of reversing. According to the Bloomberg commodity sector indices, the correction period triggered peak to bottom moves of 41% in industrial metals, 31% in grains and 27% in energy. The main reason for the dramatic correction following a record run of strong gains was the change in focus from tight supply to worries about demand. Apart from China’s slowing growth outlook due to its zero-Covid policy and housing market crisis hitting industrial metals, the most important driver has been the way in which central banks around the world have been stepping up efforts to curb runaway inflation by forcing down economic activity through aggressively tightening monetary conditions. This process is ongoing but recent economic data strength, dollar weakness and signs inflation may have peaked have all helped support markets that have gone through weeks and in some cases months of sharp price declines, and with that an aggressive amount of long liquidation from financial traders as well as selling from macro-focused funds looking for a hedge against an economic downturn.With the broad position adjustments having run their course, the focus has returned to supply which in many cases remains tight, thereby providing renewed support and problems for those who have been selling markets looking for even lower prices in anticipation of recession and lower demand. Backwardation remains elevated despite growth worries The behaviour of spot commodity prices, as seen through first month futures contracts, rarely gives us the full fundamental picture with the price action often being dictated by technical price-driven speculators and funds focusing on macroeconomic developments, as opposed to the individual fundamental situation. The result of this has been a period of aggressive selling on a combination of bullish bets being scaled back but also increased selling from funds looking to hedge an economic slowdown.An economic slowdown, or in a worst-case scenario a recession, would normally trigger a surplus of raw materials as demand falters and production is slow to respond to a downturn in demand. However, during the past three months of selling, the cost of commodities for immediate delivery has maintained a healthy premium above prices for later deliveries. The chart below shows the spread measured in percent between the first futures and the 12-month forward futures contract, and while the tightness has eased a bit, we are still seeing tightness across a majority, especially within energy and agriculture. A sign that the market has sold off on expectations more than reality, and it raises the prospect of a strong recovery once the growth outlook stabilises. Crude oil The downward trending price action in WTI and Brent for the past couple of months is showing signs of reversing on a combination of the market reassessing the demand outlook amid continued worries about supply and who will and can meet demand going forward. The recovery from below $95 in Brent and $90 in WTI this week was supported by signs of softer US inflation reducing the potential peak in the Fed fund rates, thereby improving the growth outlook. In addition, the weaker dollar and improving demand, especially in the US where gasoline prices at the pumps have fallen below $4 per gallon for the first time since March.In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lifted its global consumption estimate by 380 kb/d, saying soaring gas prices amid strong demand for electricity is driving utilities to switch from expensive gas to fuel-based products. Meanwhile, OPEC may struggle to raise output in the coming months due to limited spare capacity. While pockets of demand weakness have emerged in recent months, we do not expect these to materially impact on our overall price-supportive outlook. Supply-side uncertainties remain too elevated to ignore, not least considering the soon-to-expire releases of crude oil from US Strategic Reserves and the EU embargo of Russian oil fast approaching. With this in mind, we maintain our $95 to $115 range forecast for the third quarter. Gold (XAUUSD) The recently under siege yellow metal was heading for a fourth weekly gain, supported by a weaker dollar after the lower-than-expected US CPI and PPI data helped reduce expectations for how high the Fed will allow rates to run. However, rising risk appetite as seen through surging stocks and bond yields trading higher on the week have so far prevented the yellow metal from making a decisive challenge at key resistance above $1800/oz, and the recent decline in ETF holdings and low open interest in COMEX futures points to a market that is looking for a fresh and decisive trigger. We believe the markets newfound optimism about the extent to which inflation can successfully be brought under control remains too optimistic and together with several geopolitical worries, we see no reason to exit our long-held bullish view on gold as a hedge and diversifier. Gold has found some support at the 50-day moving average line at $1783, and needs to hold $1760 in order to avoid a fresh round of long liquidation the short-term. While some resistance is located just above $1800 gold needs a decisive break above $1829 in order to trigger the momentum needed to attract fresh buying in ETFs and managed money accounts in futures. Source: Saxo Group Industrial metals (Copper)   Copper has rebounded around 18% since hitting a 20-month low last month, thereby supporting a general recovery across industrial metals, the hardest hit sector during the recent correction. Supported by a softer dollar, data showing the US economy remains robust, easing concerns about the demand outlook in China and not least disruptions to producers in Asia, Europe as well as South America potentially curtailing supply at a time when exchange-monitored inventories remain at a decade low. All developments that have forced speculators to cut back recently established short positions.The potential for an improved demand outlook in China and BHP's recent announcement that it has made an offer for OZ Minerals and its nickel and copper-focused assets, is the latest in a series of global acquisitions aimed at shoring up supplies of essential metals for the energy transition. With its high electrical conductivity, copper supports all the electronics we use, from smartphones to medical equipment. It already underpins our existing electricity systems, and it is crucial to the electrification process needed over the coming years in order to reduce demand for energy derived from fossil fuels.Following a temporary recovery in the price of copper around the beginning of June when China began easing lockdown restrictions, the rally quickly ran out of steam and copper went on to tumble below key support before eventually stabilizing after finding support at $3.14/lb., the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 to 2022 rally. Since then, the price has recovered strongly but may temporarily pause after reaching finding resistance in the $3.70/lb area. We maintain a long-term bullish view on copper and prefer buying weakness instead of selling into strength. Source: Saxo Group The grains sector traded at a five-week high ahead of Friday’s supply and demand report from the US Department of Agriculture. The Bloomberg Grains Index continues to recover following its 28% June to July correction with gains this past week being led by wheat and corn in response to a weaker dollar and not least hot and dry weather in the US and another heatwave in Europe raising concerns about yield and production. Hot and dry weather at a critical stage for yield developments ahead of the soon-to-be-harvested crop has given the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report some additional attention with surveys pointing to price support with the prospect of lower yields lowering expectations for the level of available stocks ahead of the coming winter. Cotton, up 8% this month has seen the focus switch from growth and demand worries, especially in China, to deepening global supply concerns as heatwaves in the US and China hurt production prospects. Friday’s monthly supply and demand report (WASDE) from the US Department of Agriculture was expected to show lower US production driving down ending stocks by around 10% to 2.2 m bales, an 11-year low. Arabica coffee, in a downtrend since February, has also seen a steady rise since bouncing from key support below $2/lb last month. A persistent and underlying support from South American production worries has reasserted itself during the past few weeks as the current on-season crop potentially being the lowest since 2014. Brazil’s drought and cold curbed flowering last season and severe frosts in July 2021 led farmers to cut down coffee trees at a time of high costs for agricultural inputs, notably fertilizer. In addition, Columbia another top producer, has seen its crop being reduced by too much rainfall. Source: WCU: Commodity correction may have exhausted itself
The Commodity Sector Has Dropped Significantly

People Are Buying Gold. SIlver And Copper Stopped? Crude Oil Weakness

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 16.08.2022 09:23
Summary:  Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to August 9. A relatively quiet week where a continued improvement in risk appetite drove stocks higher while softening the dollar. Some commodity positions, with crude oil the major exceptions, showed signs of having reached a trough following weeks of heavy selling Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to August 9. A relatively quiet summer holiday impacted week where stocks traded higher ahead of last week’s CPI and PPI print after better than expected economic data helped reduce US recession fears while the market was looking for inflation to roll over. The dollar traded a tad softer, bond yields firmed up while commodities showed signs of having reached a trough following weeks of heavy selling.    Commodities Hedge funds were net buyers for a second week with demand concentrated in metals and agriculture while the energy sector saw continued selling. Overall the net long across 24 major commodity futures rose for a second week after recently hitting a two-year low. Buying was concentrated in gold, platinum, corn and livestock with crude oil and wheat being to most notable contracts seeing net selling. Energy: Speculators responded to continued crude oil weakness by cutting bullish bets in WTI and Brent crude by a combined 14% to a pre-Covid low at 304.5k lots. The reductions were primarily driven by long liquidation in both contracts following a demand fear driven breakdown in prices. Gas oil and gasoline longs were also reduced. Metals: Buying of metals extended to a second week led by gold which saw a 90% jump in the net long to 58.2k lots. Overall, net short positions were maintained in silver, platinum and copper with the latter seing a small amount of fresh selling due to profit taking on recently established longs. Agriculture: Grains were mixed with corn and soybeans seeing continued buying ahead of Friday's WASDE  report while the CBOT corn net short jumped 36% to 20k lotsand the Kansas net long was cut to a two-year low. The total grain long rose for second week having stabilised around 300k lots having collapse from a near record 800k lot on April 22.Soft commodities saw elevated short positions in sugar and cocoa being maintained with price gains in coffee and not least cotton supporting a small increase in their respective net longs. This before Friday's surge in cotton which left it up 13% on the week after the US Department of Agriculture slashed the US crop forecast by 19% to a 12-year low. Driven by a high level of abandonment of fields in the drought-stricken Southwest.      Forex In the week to August 9 when the dollar traded close to unchanged against a basket of major currencies, speculators increased to three the number of weeks of continued dollar selling. The pace of selling even accelerated to the highest since January after the gross long against ten IMM futures and the Dollar Index was slashed by 20% to $17.4 billion, a nine week low. Most notable selling of the greenback was seen against GBP and JPY followed by EUR and CHF. The Japanese yen, under pressure for months as yield differentials to the dollar widened saw its net short being cut by 22% to a 17-month low.     What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming  Source: COT: Speculators cut oil long to pre-covid low
Gold Struggles To Capitalize On Its Goodish Rebound

What Is "De-Dollarization"!? Ghana Is About To Start Buying Gold

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.08.2022 14:08
Relevance up to 12:00 2022-08-17 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   The African nation announced last week that it would launch a domestic gold buying program in September. The central bank said it would pay for the precious metal at market prices but make payments online. Ghana's Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia said the new program represents a significant and sustainable addition to Ghana's foreign exchange reserves and will strengthen the country's balance of payments. The new program has been in development for over a year. In a June 2021 presentation, Bank of Ghana Governor Ernest Addison said the plan would allow the country to double its gold reserves over the next five years. The central bank said that, along with building foreign exchange reserves, the program will also support the national gold mining industry. Ghana is the largest gold producer in Africa and the sixth largest in the world. Last year, the country produced over 117 tons of gold. Ghana has become the latest central bank to announce plans to increase its gold reserves. Earlier this year, a World Gold Council survey showed that of 57 central banks, a quarter planned to add more gold to their foreign exchange reserves. Much of the demand comes from central banks in developing countries. Many economists and market analysts view the growing interest of central banks in gold as part of growing de-dollarization trend. Countries are trying to reduce their dependence on the US dollar.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319032
Lowest China's Yield Level In 2 Years!? Dollar (USD) Is Disturbing Gold In It's Challenge

Lowest China's Yield Level In 2 Years!? Dollar (USD) Is Disturbing Gold In It's Challenge

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 16.08.2022 11:44
Overview: Equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, though Chinese and Hong Kong markets eased, and South Korea and India were closed for national holidays. Despite new Chinese exercises off the coast of Taiwan following another US congressional visit, Taiwan’s Taiex gained almost 0.85%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is advancing for the fourth consecutive session, while US futures are paring the pre-weekend rally. Following disappointing data and a surprise cut in the one-year medium-term lending facility, China’s 10-year yield fell to 2.66%, its lowest in two years. The US 10-year is soft near 2.83%, while European yields are mostly 2-4 bp lower. Italian bonds are bucking the trend and the 10-year yield is a little higher. The Antipodeans and Norwegian krone are off more than 1%, but all the major currencies are weaker against the greenback, but the Japanese yen, which is practically flat. Most emerging market currencies are lower too. The Hong Kong Dollar, which has been supported by the HKMA, strengthened before the weekend, and is consolidating those gains today. Gold tested the $1800 level again but has been sold in the wake of the stronger dollar and is at a five-day low near $1778. The poor data from China raises questions about demand, and September WTI is off 3.6% after falling 2.4% before the weekend. It is near $88.60, while last week’s five-month lows were set near $87.00. US natgas is almost 2% lower, while Europe’s benchmark is up 2.7% to easily recoup the slippage of the past two sessions. China’s disappointment is weighing on industrial metal prices. Iron ore tumbled 4% and September copper is off nearly 3%. September wheat snapped a four-day advance before the weekend and is off 2.3% today.  Asia Pacific With a set of disappointing of data, China surprised with a 10-bp reduction in the benchmark one-year lending facility rate to 2.75%  It is the first cut since January. It also cut the yield on the seven-day repo rate to 2.0% from 2.1%. The string of poor news began before the weekend with a larger-than-expect in July lending figures. However, those lending figures probably need to be put in the context of the surge seen in June as lenders scramble to meet quota. Today's July data was simply weak. Industrial output and retail sales slowed sequentially year-over-year, whereas economists had projected modest increases. New home prices eased by 0.11%, and residential property sales fell 31.4% year-over-year after 31.8% decline in June. Property investment fell 6.4% year-over-year, year-to-date measures following a 5.4% drop in June. Fix asset investment also slowed. The one exception to the string of disappointment was small slippage in the surveyed unemployment rate to 5.4% from 5.5%. Incongruous, though on the other hand, the jobless rate for 16–24-year-olds rose to a record 19.9%. Japan reported a Q2 GDP that missed estimates, but the revisions lifted Q1 GDP out of contraction  The world's second-largest economy grew by 2.2% at an annualized pace in Q2. While this was a bit disappointing, Q1 was revised from a 0.5% fall in output to a 0.1% expansion. Consumption (1.1%) rebounded (Q1 revised to 0.3% from 0.1%) as did business spending (1.4% vs. -0.3% in Q1, which was originally reported as -0.7%). Net exports were flat after taking 0.5% off Q1 GDP. Inventories, as expected, were unwound. After contributing 0.5% to Q1 GDP, they took 0.4% off Q2 growth. Deflationary forces were ironically still evident. The GDP deflator fell 0.4% year-over-year, almost the same as in Q1 (-0.5%). Separately, Japan reported industrial surged by 9.2% in June, up from the preliminary estimate of 8.9%. It follows a two-month slide (-7.5% in May and -1.5% in April) that seemed to reflect the delayed impact of the lockdowns in China. The US dollar is little changed against the Japanese yen and is trading within the pre-weekend range (~JPY132.90-JPY133.90). It finished last week slightly above JPY133.40 and a higher closer today would be the third gain in a row, the longest advance in over a month. The weakness of Chinese data seemed to take a toll on the Australian dollar, which has been sold to three-day lows in the European morning near $0.7045. It stalled last week near $0.7140 and in front of the 200-day moving average (~$0.7150). A break of $0.7035 could signal a return to $0.7000, and possibly $0.6970. The greenback gapped higher against the Chinese yuan and reached almost CNY6.7690, nearly a two-week high. The pre-weekend high was about CNY6.7465 and today's low is around CNY6.7495. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.7410, a little above the Bloomberg survey median of CNY6.7399. Note that a new US congressional delegation is visiting Taiwan and China has renewed drills around the island. The Taiwan dollar softened a little and traded at a three-day low. Europe Turkey's sovereign debt rating was cut a notch by Moody's to B3 from B2  That is equivalent to B-, a step below Fitch (B) and two below S&P (B+). Moody's did change its outlook to stable from negative. The rating agency cited the deterioration of the current account, which it now sees around 6% of GDP, three times larger than projected before Russia invaded Ukraine. The Turkish lira is the worst performing currency this year, with a 27.5% decline after last year's 45% depreciation. Turkey's two-year yield fell below 20% today for the first time in nine months, helped ostensibly by Russia's recent cash transfer. The dollar is firm against the lira, bumping against TRY17.97. The water level at an important junction on the Rhine River has fallen below the key 30-centimeter threshold (~12 inches) and could remain low through most of the week, according to reports of the latest German government estimate  Separately, Germany announced that its gas storage facility is 75% full, two weeks ahead of plan. The next target is 85% by October 1 and 95% on November 1. Reports from France show its nuclear reactors were operating at 48% of capacity, down from 50% before the weekend. A couple of reactors were shut down for scheduled maintenance on Saturday.  Ahead of Norway' rate decision on Thursday, the government reported a record trade surplus last month  The NOK229 bln (~$23.8 bln). The volume of natural gas exports surged more than four-times from a year earlier. Mainland exports, led by fish and electricity, rose by more than 20%. The value of Norway's electricity exports increased three-fold from a year ago. With rising price pressures (headline CPI rose to 6.8% in July and the underlying rate stands at 4.5%) and strong demand, the central bank is expected to hike the deposit rate by 50 bp to 1.75%. The euro stalled near $1.0370 last week after the softer than expected US CPI  It was pushed through the lows set that day in the European morning to trade below $1.02 for the first time since last Tuesday. There appears to be little support ahead of $1.0160. However, the retreat has extended the intraday momentum indicators. The $1.0220 area may now offer initial resistance. Sterling peaked last week near $1.2275 and eased for the past two sessions before breaking down to $1.2050 today. The intraday momentum indicators are stretched here too. The $1.2100 area may offer a sufficient cap on a bounce. A break of $1.20 could confirm a double top that would project back to the lows. America The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Inflation Reduction Act reduces the budget deficit but will have a negligible effect on inflation  Yet, starting with the ISM gauge of prices paid for services, followed by the CPI, PPI, and import/export prices, the last string of data points came in consistently softer than expected. In addition, anecdotal reports suggest the Big Box stores are cutting prices to reduce inventories. Energy is important for the medium-term trajectory of measured inflation, but the core rate will prove sticky unless shelter cost increases begin to slow. While the Democrats scored two legislative victories with the approval of the Chips and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, the impact on the poll ahead of the November midterm election seems minor at best. Even before the search-and-seizure of documents still in former President Trump's residence, PredictIt.Org "wagers" had turned to favor the Democratic Party holding the Senate but losing the House of Representatives. In terms of the Republican nomination for 2024, it has been back-and-forth over the last few months, and recently Florida Governor DeSantis narrowly pulled ahead of Trump. The two new laws may face international pushback aside from the domestic impact  The EU warned last week that the domestic content requirement to earn subsidies for electric vehicles appears to discriminate against European producers. The Inflation Reduction Act offers $7500 for the purchases of electric cars if the battery is built in North America or if the minerals are mined or recycled there. The EU electric vehicle subsidies are available for domestic and foreign producers alike. On the other hand, the Chips and Science Act offers billions of dollars to attract chip production and design to the US. However, it requires that companies drawing the subsidies could help upgrade China's capacity for a decade. Japan and Taiwan will likely go along. It fits into their domestic political agenda. However, South Korea may be a different kettle of fish. Hong Kong and China together accounted for around 60% of South Korea's chip exports last year. Samsung has one overseas memory chip facility. It is in China and produces about 40% of the Galaxy phones' NAND flash output. Pelosi's apparent farewell trip to Asia, including Taiwan, was not well received in South Korea. President Yoon Suk Yeol did not interrupt his staycation in Seoul to meet the US Speaker. Nor was the foreign minister sent. This is not to cast aspersions on South Korea's commitment to regional security, simply that it is not without limits. Today's economic calendar features the August Empire State manufacturing survey  A small decline is expected. The June TIC data is out as the markets close today. Today is also the anniversary of the US ending Bretton Woods by severing the last links between gold and the dollar in 1971. Canada reports manufacturing sales and wholesale trade, but the most market-sensitive data point may be the existing home sales, which are expected to have declined for the fifth consecutive month. Canada reports July CPI tomorrow (Bloomberg survey median forecast sees headline CPI slowing to 7.6% from 8.1% in June).  The Canadian dollar is under pressure  The US dollar has jumped above CAD1.2900 in Europe after finishing last week near CAD1.2780. Last week's high was set near CAD1.2950, where a $655 mln option is set to expire today. A move above CAD1.2920 could target CAD1.2975-CAD1.3000 over the next day or day. A combination of weaker equities, thin markets, and a short-term market leaning the wrong way after the likely drivers today. The greenback posted its lowest close in two months against the Mexican peso before the weekend near MXN19.85. However, it is rebounding today and testing the MXN20.00 area Initial resistance may be encountered around MXN20.05, but we are looking for a move toward MXN20.20 in the coming days. Mexico's economic calendar is light this week, and the highlight is the June retail sales report at the end of the week.    Disclaimer Source: China Disappoints and Surprises with Rate Cut
Commodities: Prices Are Rising, Heatwaves In US And China Affects The Production Of Cotton

NGAS Prices Touching Near 14-year Highs, Cotton Futures Rising, Gold Futures Weighed Down By Hawkish Federal Reserve

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 16.08.2022 16:32
Summary: NGAS futures are trading close to 14-year highs. Decreased supply vs lower demand for cotton. Gold futures falling. Demand for NGAS rising US Natural Gas futures were trading close to a 14-year high of $9.75/MMBtu reached in late July, supported by robust domestic and international demand. US Natural Gas futures were trading around this price. This summer's high temperatures in the US have been accompanied by many heatwaves, which has increased demand for air conditioners. Freeport LNG, meanwhile, announced that it started bringing in very small amounts of natural gas from pipelines and that it just reached an agreement with authorities to partially restart operations at its shut-down export terminal in Texas in October. More natural gas will be taken out of storage once flows resume, which will increase exports. The fact that the crucial Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which runs from Russia to Germany, is currently operating at 20% capacity just makes matters worse. Demand from Europe is still high. NGAS Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices touching 7-week highs As traders weighed the chances of decreased supply against those of lower demand, cotton futures increased to levels above 120 USd/Lb, the highest in more than 7 weeks. According to the most recent USDA crop report, production for 2022–2023 will drop to 12.6 million bales, which would mark a decline from 2009–2010 levels. Additionally, the new output prediction is around 19% lower than 2021–2022. In the meantime, severe weather and pest attacks in important growing regions continue to threaten cotton crops in India, another key producer. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold Futures weighed down by slowing GDP Expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue to rapidly raise interest rates despite evidence of softening inflation and slowing GDP caused gold prices to trade around $1,780 an ounce on Tuesday, down 1.3% from the previous session. Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin stated Friday in the most recent central bank commentary that the Fed will need to keep raising rates into "restrictive terrain" until he sees inflation persistently falling inside the target range for a considerable amount of time. Higher interest rates make owning non-yielding bullion more expensive, despite the fact that gold is regarded as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Gold Has Potential For The Downside Movement

Naturally Gold Price Is Awaiting FOMC Minutes

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 17.08.2022 12:33
Oil rebounds off support as JCPOA talks continue Oil prices are edging higher on Wednesday, bouncing off technical support over the last 24 hours as Chinese Premier Li pushed for more pro-growth measures from local officials. There are growing downside risks as a result of the growth outlook and ongoing uncertainty around Chinese Covid restrictions. What’s more, talks between the US and Iran are continuing around the nuclear deal which, if it gets over the line, could be a big positive for oil supply and therefore a negative for prices. There is no shortage of scepticism around the prospects for the JCPOA to be revived though but we may be reaching a point where that will become clear. For now, Brent appears to have decent support around $92. Gold flat after a pullback Gold is marginally lower on the day with focus fully on the Fed minutes later in the day. The yellow metal has been knocked back in recent days after briefly breaking through $1,800 resistance. It’s remained quite resilient though against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar and the FOMC minutes later could potentially reward that. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil edges higher, gold flat - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Commodities: Deglobalization, Green Transformation, Urbanization And Other Things That Got Involved

Commodities: Deglobalization, Green Transformation, Urbanization And Other Things That Got Involved

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 19.08.2022 15:50
Summary:  Commodities traded with a softer bias this week as the focus continued to rest on global macro-economic developments, in some cases reducing the impact of otherwise supportive micro developments, such as the fall in inventories seen across several individual commodities. Overall, however, we do not alter our long-term views about commodities and their ability to move higher over time, with some of the main reasons being underinvestment, urbanization, green transformation, sanctions on Russia and deglobalization. Commodities traded with a softer bias this week as the focus continued to rest on global macro-economic developments, in some cases reducing the impact of otherwise supportive micro developments, such as the fall in inventories seen across several individual commodities. The dollar found renewed strength and bond yields rose while the month-long bear-market bounce across US stocks showed signs of running out of steam.The trigger being comments from Federal Reserve officials reiterating their resolve to continue hiking rates until inflation eases back to their yet-to-be revised higher long-term target of around 2%. Those comments put to rest expectations that a string of recent weak economic data would encourage the Fed to reduce the projected pace of future rate hikes.The result of these developments being an elevated risk of a global economic slowdown gathering pace as the battle against inflation remains far from won, not least considering the risk of persistent high energy prices, from gasoline and diesel to coal and especially gas. A clear sign that the battle between macro and micro developments continues, the result of which is likely to be a prolonged period of uncertainty with regards to the short- and medium-term outlook.Overall, however, these developments do not alter our long-term views about commodities and their ability to move higher over time. In my quarterly webinar, held earlier this week, I highlighted some of the reasons why we see the so-called old economy, or tangible assets, performing well over the coming years, driven by underinvestment, urbanization, green transformation, sanctions on Russia and deglobalization. Returning to this past week’s performance, we find the 2.3% drop in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, seen above, being in line with the rise in the dollar where gains were recorded against all the ten currencies, including the Chinese renminbi, represented in the index. It is worth noting that EU TTF gas and power prices, which jumped around 23% and 20% respectively, and Paris Milling wheat, which slumped, are not members of the mentioned commodity index.Overall gains in energy led by the refined products of diesel and US natural gas were more than offset by losses across the other sectors, most notably grains led by the slump in global wheat prices and precious metals which took a hit from the mentioned dollar and yield rise. Combating inflation and its impact on growth remains top of mind Apart from China’s slowing growth outlook due to its zero-Covid policy and housing market crisis hitting industrial metals, the most important driver for commodities recently has been the macro-economic outlook currently being dictated by the way in which central banks around the world have been stepping up efforts to curb runaway inflation by forcing down economic activity through aggressively tightening monetary conditions. This process is ongoing and the longer the process takes to succeed, the bigger the risk of an economic fallout. US inflation expectations in a year have already seen a dramatic slump but despite this the medium- and long-term expectations remain anchored around 3%, still well above the Fed’s 2% target.Even reaching the 3% level at this point looks challenging, not least considering elevated input costs from energy. Failure to achieve the target remains the biggest short-term risk to commodity prices with higher rates killing growth, while eroding risk appetite as stock markets resume their decline. These developments, however, remain one of the reasons why we find gold and eventually also silver attractive as hedges against a so-called policy mistake. Global wheat prices tumble The prospect for a record Russian crop and continued flows of Ukrainian grain together with the stronger dollar helped push prices lower in Paris and Chicago. The recently opened corridor from Ukraine has so far this month seen more than 500,000 tons of crops being shipped, and while it's still far below the normal pace, it has nevertheless provided some relief at a time where troubled weather has created a mixed picture elsewhere. The Chicago wheat futures contract touched a January low after breaking $7.75/bu support while the Paris Milling (EBMZ2) wheat traded near the lowest since March. With most of the uncertainties driving panic buying back in March now removed, calmer conditions should return with the biggest unknown still the war in Ukraine and with that the country’s ability to produce and export key food commodities from corn and wheat to sunflower oil. EU gas reaches $73/MMBtu or $415 per barrel of oil equivalent Natural gas in Europe headed for the longest run of weekly gains this year, intensifying the pain for industries and households, while at the same time increasingly threatening to push economies across the region into recession. The recent jump on top of already elevated prices of gas and power, due to low supplies from Russia, has been driven by an August heatwave raising demand while lowering water levels on the river Rhine. This development has increasingly prevented the safe passage of barges transporting coal, diesel and other essentials, while refineries such as Shell’s Rhineland oil refinery in Germany have been forced to cut production. In addition, half of Europe’s zinc and aluminum smelting capacity has been shut, thereby adding support to these metals at a time the market is worried about the demand outlook.An abundance of rain and lower temperatures may in the short term remove some of the recent price strength but overall, the coming winter months remain a major worry from a supply perspective. Not least considering the risk of increased competition from Asia for LNG shipments. Refinery margin jump lends fresh support to crude oil Crude oil, in a downtrend since June, is showing signs of selling fatigue with the technical outlook turning more price friendly while fresh fundamental developments are adding some support as well. Worries about an economic slowdown driven by China’s troubled handling of Covid outbreaks and its property sector problems as well as rapidly rising interest rates were the main drivers behind the selling since March across other commodity sectors before eventually also catching up with crude oil around the middle of June. Since then, the price of Brent has gone through a $28 dollar top to bottom correction. While the macro-economic outlook is still challenged, recent developments within the oil market, so-called micro developments, have raised the risk of a rebound. The mentioned energy crisis in Europe continues to strengthen, the result being surging gas prices making fuel-based products increasingly attractive. This gas-to-fuel switch was specifically mentioned by the IEA in their latest update as the reason for raising their 2022 global oil demand growth forecast by 380k barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Since the report was published, the incentive to switch has increased even more, adding more upward pressure on refinery margins. While pockets of demand weakness have emerged in recent months, we do not expect these to materially impact on our overall price-supportive outlook. Supply-side uncertainties remain too elevated to ignore, not least considering the soon-to-expire releases of crude oil from US Strategic Reserves and the EU embargo of Russian oil fast approaching. In addition, the previously mentioned increased demand for fuel-based products to replace expensive gas. With this in mind, we maintain our $95 to $115 range forecast for the third quarter. Gold and silver struggle amid rising dollar and yields Both metals, especially silver, were heading for a weekly loss after hawkish sounding comments from several FOMC members helped boost the dollar while sending US ten-year bond yields higher towards 3%. It was the lull in both that helped trigger the recovery in recent weeks, and with stock markets having rallied as well during the same time, the demand for gold has mostly been driven by momentum following speculators in the futures market. The turnaround this past week has, as a result of speculators' positioning, been driven by the need to reduce bullish bets following a two-week buying spree which lifted the net futures long by 63k lots or 6.3 million ounces, the strongest pace of buying in six months. ETF holdings meanwhile have slumped to a six-month low, an indication that investors, for now, trust the FOMC’s ability to bring down inflation within a relatively short timeframe. An investor having doubts about this should maintain a long position as a hedge against a policy mistake. Some investors may feel hard done by gold’s negative year-to-date performance in dollars, but taking into account it had to deal with the biggest jump in real yields since 2013 and a surging dollar, its performance, especially for non-dollar investors relative to the losses in bonds and stocks, remains acceptable. In other words, a hedge in gold against a policy mistake or other unforeseen geopolitical events has so far been almost cost free.   Source: WCU: Bearish macro, bullish micro regime persists
Price Of Gold Is Now Bouncing Higher But Trend Remains Controlled By Bears

XAU/USD Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for August 19, 2022

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.08.2022 17:38
Relevance up to 12:00 2022-08-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Gold is giving way to its role as a defensive asset to the dollar, and the XAU/USD pair is declining for the 5th day in a row today. As of this writing, the pair is trading near 1753.00, close to the strong support level of 1748.00 (144 EMA on the weekly chart). Given the long-term upward trend of XAU/USD, it is logical to assume a rebound near this support level. In case of its breakdown, the key support level 1690.00 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) becomes the target, the breakdown of which will cause XAU/USD to enter the zone of a long-term bearish market.     If there is still a rebound near the current levels and the support level of 1748.00, then the signal for the resumption of long positions will be a breakdown of the important resistance levels of 1772.00 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 1773.00 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), chart). In this case, a retest of the "round" resistance level 1800.00 is possible, which became a kind of "balance line" for the pair for a long time until the beginning of 2022.     The breakdown of the key resistance level of 1822.00 (200 EMA on the daily chart) will confirm the scenario for the resumption of the long-term bullish trend for XAU/USD. Support levels: 1748.00, 1700.00, 1690.00, 1682.00, 1670.00 Resistance levels: 1772.00, 1773.00, 1780.00, 1800.00, 1822.00, 1832.00, 1875.00 Trading Tips Sell Stop 1746.00. Stop-Loss 1761.00. Take-Profit 1700.00, 1690.00, 1682.00, 1670.00 Buy Stop 1761.00. Stop-Loss 1746.00. Take-Profit 1772.00, 1773.00, 1780.00, 1800.00, 1822.00, 1832.00, 1875.00   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319407
The Price Of Gold (XAU/USD) Confirmed The Bullish Attitude

XAU/USD: dollar demand prevails over gold demand

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.08.2022 17:41
Relevance up to 12:00 2022-08-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The dollar continues to strengthen, and the dollar index (DXY) ends the week with a decent gain. Yesterday DXY decisively broke through the local resistance level of 107.00 and, as of this writing, DXY futures are trading near 107.62, returning to the ascending channel on the daily DXY chart and heading towards the next "round" resistance level of 108.00. Our yesterday's forecast on this matter was justified, and now after the breakdown of the local multi-month high of 109.14, reached in mid-July, the mark of 110.00 will be the next growth target for DXY (the upper limit of this channel passes through it).     Due to the absence of important publications for the market in today's economic calendar, the emerging trend of strengthening the dollar today is likely to continue until the end of the trading day. Next week, market participants will be watching the Fed's annual economic forum in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which will bring together representatives of the world's leading central banks and economists. Statements by representatives of central banks may have a significant impact on national currencies. As was the case in previous forums, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at its opening (August 25). Undoubtedly, the main issue for market participants is the topic of tightening monetary policies by the world's leading central banks and their fight against galloping inflation. In the meantime, the dollar is successfully recovering the positions lost in the previous three weeks, also strengthening against the traditional defensive assets—the yen, the franc, and gold. As for this precious metal, its quotes are extremely sensitive to changes in the monetary policy of the world's leading central banks, especially the Fed. Gold does not bring investment income but is in active demand during geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and is a protective asset in the face of rising inflation. Now is just such a moment.     However, it seems that it is losing its role as a protective asset to the dollar. XAU/USD pair is falling today for the 5th day in a row, and as of this writing, it is trading near the 1753.00 mark, near the strong support level of 1748.00. In case of its breakdown, the key support level 1690.00 becomes the target, the breakdown of which will cause XAU/USD to enter the zone of a long-term bear market.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319407
There Is An Opportunity To Sell Gold After Its Prices Dropped

Commodities Amid Turbulent Times | Gold, Silver And Crude Oil In Eyes Of Jason Sen (DayTradeIdeas) - 22/08/22

Jason Sen Jason Sen 22.08.2022 08:37
Gold Spot broke 1765 for a sell signal targeting 1740/35 this week. Silver breaks back below support at 2030/10 to turn the outlook negative again. WTI Crude crawls higher, but difficult to hold longs. We could reach strong resistance at 9460/9500. Shorts need stops above 9550. Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa. Update daily by 05:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Gold outlook negative so we are looking to sell at resistance on any bounce. First resistance at 1755/60. Unlikely but if we continue higher look for strong resistance at 1770/75. Shorts need stops above 1780. Prices are expected continue lower this week initially targeting 1740/35 then 1729/27 & perhaps as far as 1715/10. Silver collapsed from resistance at 2020/30 as expected hitting my targets of 1980, 1960/55 & 1920/15. Further losses are expected to 1880/70 & eventually a retest of the July low at 1820/10. A break below 1795 is the next sell signal. Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 1940/50. Shorts need stops above 1965. Se 2000/20. Shorts need stops above 2040. WTI Crude September minor resistance at 9150/9200 but above here we could reach strong resistance at 9460/9500. Shorts need stops above 9550. Holding minor resistance at 9150/9200 (in what is probably a bull flag pattern) targets 9070/50 then 8900. On further losses look for 8850/8800.
Price Of Gold Is Right On Top Of The Lower Boundary

Gold Is At Risk Of Being Liquidated!? Ukraine Shipment Accelerates

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 22.08.2022 13:47
Summary:  Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to August 16. A week that potentially saw a cycle peak in US stocks and where the dollar and treasury yields both traded calmly before pushing higher. Commodities meanwhile continued their recent recovery with funds being net buyers of most contracts, the major exceptions being gold and crude oil Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to August 16. A week that potentially saw a cycle peak in US stocks with the S&P 500 reversing lower after reaching a four-month high, and where the dollar and treasury yields both traded calm before pushing higher. Commodities meanwhile continued their recent recovery with all sectors, except precious metals and grains recording gains. Commodities Hedge funds were net buyers for a third week with the total net long across the 24 major commodity futures tracked in this update rising by 14% to reach a seven week high at 988k lots. Some 56% below the recent peak reached in late February before Russia’s attack on Ukraine drove an across-the-board volatility spike which forced funds to reduce their exposure. Since then and up until early July, worries about a global economic slowdown, caused by a succession of rapid rate hikes in order to kill inflation, was one of the key reasons for the slump in speculative length.Returning to last week, the 123k lot increase was split equally between new longs being added and short positions being scaled back, and overall the net increase was broad led by natural gas, sugar, cattle and grains with most of the selling being concentrated in crude oil and gold. Energy: Weeks of crude oil selling continued with the combined net long in WTI and Brent falling by 26k lots to 278k lots, the lowest belief in rising prices since April 2020. Back then the market had only just began recovering the Covid related energy shock which briefly sent prices spiraling lower. While funds continued to sell crude oil in anticipation of an economic slowdown the refined product market was sending another signal with refinery margins on the rise again, partly due surging gas prices making refined alternatives, such as diesel, look cheap. As a result, the net long in ICE gas oil was lifted by 24% to 62k lots while RBOB gasoline and to a lesser extent ULSD also saw net buying. The net short in Henry Hub natural gas futures was cut by 55% as the price jumped by 19%. Metals: Renewed weakness across investment metals triggered a mixed response from traders with gold seeing a small reduction in recently established longs while continued short covering reduced bearish bets in silver, platinum and palladium. With gold resuming its down move after failing to find support above $1800, the metal has been left exposed to long liquidation from funds which in the previous two weeks had bought 63.3k lots. Copper’s small 1% gain on the week supported some additional short covering, but overall the net short has stayed relatively stable around 16k lots for the past six weeks. Agriculture: Speculators were net buyers of grains despite continued price weakness following the latest supply and demand report from the US Department of Agriculture on August 12, and after shipments of grains from Ukraine continued to pick up speed. From a near record high above 800k lots on April 19, the net long across six major crop futures went on to slump by 64% before buyers began dipping their toes back in to the market some three weeks ago. Buying was concentrated in bean oil and corn while the wheat sector remained challenged with the net long in Kansas wheat falling to a 2-year low. The four major softs contract saw strong buying led by sugar after funds flipped their position back to a 13.4k lots net long. The cocoa short was reduced by 10% while the coffee long received a 25% boost. Cotton’s 18% surge during the week helped lift the long by 35% to 44.7k lots.     Forex A mixed week in forex left the speculative dollar long close to unchanged against ten IMM futures and the DXY. Selling of euro saw the net short reach a fresh 2-1/2-year high at 42.8k lots or €5.3 billion equivalent while renewed selling of JPY, despite trading higher during the reporting week, made up most of the increase in dollar length. Against these we saw short covering reduce CHF, GBP and MXN short while CAD net long reached a 14-month high.    What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming   Source: COT: Gold and oil left out as funds return to commodities
Gold Has Potential For The Downside Movement

Want To Sell 1 Ounce of Gold? What Can We Expect From XAUUSD This Week?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.08.2022 13:54
Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.     With gold ending the week down 3%, Wall Street analysts have turned bearish on gold this week, blaming the strong US dollar and pressure from the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. On Friday, gold fell under dollar pressure as the US dollar index climbed to a 20-year high.     Markets remain focused on the Fed's speech after July FOMC minutes showed that Fed officials ultimately agreed on the need to slow down the tightening cycle. However, they first need to see how their rate hikes will affect inflation. This week, it is worth paying attention to the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, scheduled for Friday, in which the economic forecast will be announced. Powell's remarks this week are one of the key avenues the Fed could use to stop the market from sizing up next year's rate cut cycle after this year's tightening. Market expectations do not match forecasts. If rates remain elevated, this will increase interest in precious metals. The results of the weekly survey of gold showed that Wall Street analysts are bearish on gold prices this week. Of the 11 analysts who took part in the survey, 55% expect prices to fall, 27% are neutral, and only 18% call for price increases. The Main Street side remained bullish. Of the 709 retailers, 46% predicted higher prices, 35% called for lower prices, and 19% were neutral.     According to senior analyst Jim Wyckoff, the near-term technical picture remains bearish. Last week's drop below $1,800 an ounce put the bulls on hold.     Alliance Financial precious metals dealer Frank McGee is forecasting lower prices this week.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319538
The Situation Around The World Force  Investors To Keep Precious Metals In Portfolios

What Do Gold Traders Expect From Jerome Powell's Speech During Jackson Hole Meeting?

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 22.08.2022 14:55
Oil choppy as traders await JCPOA decision Oil prices are off more than 1% this morning as choppy trade continues. There remain many factors influencing the oil price right now from a tight market to a diminishing growth outlook and a potential Iran nuclear deal. The prospects for the latter could become clearer over the course of this week although that has been suggested many times this year and yet here we are. We could see WTI remain choppy around $90 and Brent hover above $92 for a little while longer yet. Gold pushed back further but faces a big test of support Gold remains on the backfoot amid a resurgent dollar as 10-year Treasuries continue to creep back towards 3% and the two-year hovers around its June highs. Traders are naturally looking for clarity from Powell’s Jackson Hole appearance later this week and seem to think it’s going to come in the form of hawkish warnings. That has dampened sentiment in the yellow metal which has been further pushed back from its recent peak above $1,800 and now trades around the 61.8% retracement level from its July lows to August highs. A good test for overall sentiment in gold. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil slips, gold under pressure - MarketPulseMarketPulse
China's Plan For Dying Property Markets. Nasdaq 100 And S&P 500

China's Plan For Dying Property Markets. Nasdaq 100 And S&P 500

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 23.08.2022 08:37
Summary:  Equities were sold off on Monday, continuing a slide from their summer rally high, in the midst of position adjustments ahead of the Jackson Hole central banker event later this week. U.S. 10-year yields returned to above 3%. China cut its 5-year loan prime rates and plans to extend special loans to boost the ailing property markets. What is happening in markets?   Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S. equities lost ground and continued to retrace from the high of the latest rally since mid-June.  The market sentiment has become more cautious ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech this Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium and a heavy economic data calendar, S&P 500 – 2.1%, Nasdaq 100 -2.7%.  The rise of U.S. 10-year bond yield back to above 3% added to the selling pressures in equities.  Zoom Video (ZM:xnas) fell 8% in after-hours trading as the company reported Q2 revenues and earnings missing estimates and cut its full year revenues guidance. U.S. treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) Bonds were sold off as traders adjusted positions ahead of the Jackson Hole.  The treasury yield curve bear flattened with 2-year yields surging 8bps to 3.30% and 10-year yields climbing 4bps to 3.01%, above the closely watched 3% handle.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng fell 0.6% while CSI300 climbed 0.7% on Monday. Chinese developers gained on today’s larger-than-expected cut in the 5-year loan prime rate and the Chinese authorities plan to provide special loans through policy banks to support the delivery of stalled residential housing projects, CIFI (00883:xhkg) +11.5%, Country Garden (02007:xhkg) +3.2%.  China extended EV waivers from vehicle purchase tax and other fees to the end of 2023, but the share price reactions of Chinese EV makers traded in Hong Kong were mixed.  Great Wall Motor (02333:xhkg) soared 11%, benefiting from launching a new model that has a 1,000km per charge battery while Nio (09866:xhkg) and Li Auto(02015:xhkg) fell 4.2% and 1.4% respectively. Xiaomi (01810:xhkg) dropped 3.3% after Q2 revenues -20% YoY and net profit -67% YoY, on lower smartphone shipments (-26% YoY).  Smartphone parts suppliers, AAC Technologies (02018:xhkg) and Sunny Optical (02382:xhkg) declined 5.6% and 4.2% respectively.  The share price performance of the four companies that will be added to the Hang Seng Index was mixed, Baidu (09888:xhkg) +0.9%, China Shenhua Energy (01088:xhkg) +2.1%, Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692:xhkg) +3.2% but Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (01929:xhkg) -0.6%.  SenseTime (00020:xhkg) gained 4.2% as the company will replace China Pacific Insurance (02601:xhkg) -2.8% as a constituent company of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index.  ENN Energy (02688:xhkg) plunged more than 14% after reporting H1 results below market expectations.  China retailer Gome (00493) collapsed 20% after resuming trading from suspension and a plan t buy from the controlling shareholder a stake in China property assets.  EURUSD falls below parity, eyes on 0.9500 The latest concerns on the European energy crisis weighed on the Euro which was seen sipping below parity to the US dollar. Higher US yields and gains in the US dollar also underpinned, taking EURUSD to lows of 0.9926. The European recession is coming hard and fast, and the PMIs today will likely signal increasing pressure on the region. Also on the radar will be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole later this week, with a fresh selloff in the pair likely to target 0.9500 next. USDCNH heading to further highs After PBOC’s easing measures on Monday, the scope for further yuan weakness has increased. USDCNH broke above 6.8600 overnight and potentially more US dollar strength this week on the back of a pushback from Fed officials on easing expectations for next year could mean a test of 7.00 for USDCNH. Still, the move in yuan is isolated, coming from China moving to prevent the yuan from tracking aggravated USD strength rather than showing signs of desiring a broader weakening. EURCNH has plunged to over 1-month lows of 6.8216 on the back of broader EUR weakness. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices made a recovery overnight despite the strength in the US dollar. A global shift from gas to oil, from Europe to Asia, has taken a deeper hold amid gas shortage fears accelerating in the wake of another upcoming maintenance of the Nordstream pipeline. Diesel and refinery margins have also been supported as a result, with Asia diesel crack rising to its previous high of $63 amid low inventory levels. WTI futures reversed back to the $90/barrel levels and Brent were back above $96. Comments from Saudi Energy Minister threatening to dial back supply also lifted prices, but these were mis-read and in fact, focused more on the mismatch between the tightness in the futures and the physical market. Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) Gold broke below the key $1744 support and is now eying $1729, the 61.8% retracement of the July to August bounce. Dollar strength and a run higher in US yields weighed on the shine of the yellow metal, which has seen downside pressures since last week after touching the critical $1800-level. Hawkish Fed talk this week could further weigh on the short-term prospects for Gold. Silver also dipped below the key 19 handle, erasing most of the gains seen since late July.   What to consider?   German year-ahead power prices hit a fresh record high German year-ahead power prices surged to EUR 700/MWh with Dutch TTF gas prices close to EUR 300/MWh. The surge came on the back of another leg higher in natural gas prices which rose over 8% in Europe amid concerns around the next scheduled 3-day maintenance of the Nordstream pipeline. It appears that demand destruction remains the most obvious but painful cure right now, along with a longer-term focus on ensuring a broad-based supply of energy from coal, gas, nuclear, solar, hydrogen, and more.  Australia and Japan services PMIs plunged into contraction Australia saw its services PMI drop to 49.6 in August in a flash print, from 50.9 in July. Manufacturing PMI, however, held up at 54.5, just weakening slightly from last month’s 55.7. The spate of rate hikes seen from Reserve Bank of Australia is likely taking its toll on demand and manufacturing. Meanwhile, prices remain elevated amid the persistent supply chain issues, and more rate hikes are still on the cards. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI for August came in lower at 51.0 from 52.1 previously, nut stayed in expansion territory. Services PMI however plunged into the contraction zone below 50, coming in at 49.2 for a flash August print from 50.3 in July. The fresh COVID wave in Japan, although comes without any broad-based new restrictions, is impeding the services demand and will likely weigh on Q3 GDP growth. Europe and UK PMIs may spell further caution The Euro-area flash composite PMI and the UK flash PMI for August are both due to be released on Tuesday. Following a slide in ZEW and Sentix indicators for July, the stage is set for a weaker outcome on the PMIs too. July composite PMI for the Euro-area dipped into contractionary territory at 49.9, while the UK measure held up at 52.1. The surge in gas and electricity prices continue to weigh on GDP growth outlook, with recession likely to hit by the end of the year. China’s plan to provide loans to ensure delivery of presold residential projects is said to be of the size of RMB 200 billion Last Friday, Xinhua News reported that the PBoC, jointly with the Housing Ministry and the Ministry of Finance rolled out a program to make special loans through policy banks to support the delivery of stalled residential housing projects but the size of the program was not mentioned.   A Bloomberg report yesterday, citing “people familiar with the matter”, suggested the size of the support lending program could be as large as RMB 200 billion.  Beijing municipal government rolled out initiatives to promote hydrogen vehicles The municipal government of Beijing announced support for the construction of hydrogen vehicle refueling stations with RMB500 million for each station, aiming at building 37 new stations by 2023 and bringing the adoption of fuel-cell cars to over 10,000 units in the capital. Earlier in the month, the Guangdong province released a plan to build 200 hydrogen vehicle refueling stations by 2025. Since last year, there have been 13 provinces and municipalities rolling out policies to promote the development of the hydrogen vehicle industry.  Earnings on tap Reportedly there have been shorts being built up in Dollar Tree (DLTR:xnys) as traders are expecting that discount retailer missing when reporting this Thursday.   On the other hand, investors are expecting Dollar General (DG:xnys) results to come in more favourably, , which also reports this Thursday.  Key earnings scheduled to release today including Medtronic (MDT:xnys), Intuit (INTU:xnas), JD.COM (09618.xhkg/JD.xnas), JD Logistics (02615:xhkg), Kingsoft (02888:xhkg), and Kuishaou (01023:xhkg). Singapore reports July inflation figures today Singapore's inflation likely nudged higher in July, coming in close proximity to 7% levels from 6.7% y/y in June. While both food and fuel costs continue to create upside pressures on inflation, demand-side pressures are also increasing as the region moves away from virus curbs. House rentals are also running high due to high demand and delayed construction limiting supplies. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has tightened monetary policy but more tightening moves can be expected in H2 even as the growth outlook has been downwardly revised.     For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 23, 2022
What Should Happened For Gold To Go Into Renaissance

What Should Happened For Gold To Go Into Renaissance

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.08.2022 18:45
Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Red lines - bearish channel Black lines - Fibonacci retracements Gold price is bouncing towards $1,750. Gold price made a low right at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and is now bouncing. This is positive news for bulls. Respecting the 61.8% Fibonacci level is very important for bulls. At this retracement level we usually see trend reversals. Gold's decline from above $1,800 is now complete. Price has formed a higher low at $1,727. Price remains inside the bearish medium-term channel. Is Gold price starting a new upward move from current levels that will eventually push out of the medium-term bearish channel towards $1,850-$1,900? In order for this scenario to come true we need to see a) a new sequence of higher highs and higher lows b) bulls must defend $1,727 area and not let price fall below it c) break above $1,790 upper channel boundary. On the other hand bears would want to see price form a lower high and get rejected at the bounce towards $1,790. Bears want to see a lower high being formed and then price break below $1,727. Conclusion, as long as price remains inside the bearish medium-term channel, we favor the bearish scenario.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis on Gold for August 23rd, 2022.  
In Germany, The Next-Year Prices For Energy Are Astonishing! Why?

In Germany The Next-Year Prices For Energy Are Astonishing! Why?

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 24.08.2022 09:03
Summary:  Equities were sold off on Monday, continuing a slide from their summer rally high, in the midst of position adjustments ahead of the Jackson Hole central banker event later this week. U.S. 10-year yields returned to above 3%. China cut its 5-year loan prime rates and plans to extend special loans to boost the ailing property markets. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S. equities lost ground and continued to retrace from the high of the latest rally since mid-June.  The market sentiment has become more cautious ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech this Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium and a heavy economic data calendar, S&P 500 – 2.1%, Nasdaq 100 -2.7%.  The rise of U.S. 10-year bond yield back to above 3% added to the selling pressures in equities.  Zoom Video (ZM:xnas) fell 8% in after-hours trading as the company reported Q2 revenues and earnings missing estimates and cut its full year revenues guidance. U.S. treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) Bonds were sold off as traders adjusted positions ahead of the Jackson Hole.  The treasury yield curve bear flattened with 2-year yields surging 8bps to 3.30% and 10-year yields climbing 4bps to 3.01%, above the closely watched 3% handle.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng fell 0.6% while CSI300 climbed 0.7% on Monday. Chinese developers gained on today’s larger-than-expected cut in the 5-year loan prime rate and the Chinese authorities plan to provide special loans through policy banks to support the delivery of stalled residential housing projects, CIFI (00883:xhkg) +11.5%, Country Garden (02007:xhkg) +3.2%.  China extended EV waivers from vehicle purchase tax and other fees to the end of 2023, but the share price reactions of Chinese EV makers traded in Hong Kong were mixed.  Great Wall Motor (02333:xhkg) soared 11%, benefiting from launching a new model that has a 1,000km per charge battery while Nio (09866:xhkg) and Li Auto(02015:xhkg) fell 4.2% and 1.4% respectively. Xiaomi (01810:xhkg) dropped 3.3% after Q2 revenues -20% YoY and net profit -67% YoY, on lower smartphone shipments (-26% YoY).  Smartphone parts suppliers, AAC Technologies (02018:xhkg) and Sunny Optical (02382:xhkg) declined 5.6% and 4.2% respectively.  The share price performance of the four companies that will be added to the Hang Seng Index was mixed, Baidu (09888:xhkg) +0.9%, China Shenhua Energy (01088:xhkg) +2.1%, Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692:xhkg) +3.2% but Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (01929:xhkg) -0.6%.  SenseTime (00020:xhkg) gained 4.2% as the company will replace China Pacific Insurance (02601:xhkg) -2.8% as a constituent company of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index.  ENN Energy (02688:xhkg) plunged more than 14% after reporting H1 results below market expectations.  China retailer Gome (00493) collapsed 20% after resuming trading from suspension and a plan t buy from the controlling shareholder a stake in China property assets.  EURUSD falls below parity, eyes on 0.9500 The latest concerns on the European energy crisis weighed on the Euro which was seen sipping below parity to the US dollar. Higher US yields and gains in the US dollar also underpinned, taking EURUSD to lows of 0.9926. The European recession is coming hard and fast, and the PMIs today will likely signal increasing pressure on the region. Also on the radar will be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole later this week, with a fresh selloff in the pair likely to target 0.9500 next. USDCNH heading to further highs After PBOC’s easing measures on Monday, the scope for further yuan weakness has increased. USDCNH broke above 6.8600 overnight and potentially more US dollar strength this week on the back of a pushback from Fed officials on easing expectations for next year could mean a test of 7.00 for USDCNH. Still, the move in yuan is isolated, coming from China moving to prevent the yuan from tracking aggravated USD strength rather than showing signs of desiring a broader weakening. EURCNH has plunged to over 1-month lows of 6.8216 on the back of broader EUR weakness. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices made a recovery overnight despite the strength in the US dollar. A global shift from gas to oil, from Europe to Asia, has taken a deeper hold amid gas shortage fears accelerating in the wake of another upcoming maintenance of the Nordstream pipeline. Diesel and refinery margins have also been supported as a result, with Asia diesel crack rising to its previous high of $63 amid low inventory levels. WTI futures reversed back to the $90/barrel levels and Brent were back above $96. Comments from Saudi Energy Minister threatening to dial back supply also lifted prices, but these were mis-read and in fact, focused more on the mismatch between the tightness in the futures and the physical market. Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) Gold broke below the key $1744 support and is now eying $1729, the 61.8% retracement of the July to August bounce. Dollar strength and a run higher in US yields weighed on the shine of the yellow metal, which has seen downside pressures since last week after touching the critical $1800-level. Hawkish Fed talk this week could further weigh on the short-term prospects for Gold. Silver also dipped below the key 19 handle, erasing most of the gains seen since late July.   What to consider? German year-ahead power prices hit a fresh record high German year-ahead power prices surged to EUR 700/MWh with Dutch TTF gas prices close to EUR 300/MWh. The surge came on the back of another leg higher in natural gas prices which rose over 8% in Europe amid concerns around the next scheduled 3-day maintenance of the Nordstream pipeline. It appears that demand destruction remains the most obvious but painful cure right now, along with a longer-term focus on ensuring a broad-based supply of energy from coal, gas, nuclear, solar, hydrogen, and more.  Australia and Japan services PMIs plunged into contraction Australia saw its services PMI drop to 49.6 in August in a flash print, from 50.9 in July. Manufacturing PMI, however, held up at 54.5, just weakening slightly from last month’s 55.7. The spate of rate hikes seen from Reserve Bank of Australia is likely taking its toll on demand and manufacturing. Meanwhile, prices remain elevated amid the persistent supply chain issues, and more rate hikes are still on the cards. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI for August came in lower at 51.0 from 52.1 previously, nut stayed in expansion territory. Services PMI however plunged into the contraction zone below 50, coming in at 49.2 for a flash August print from 50.3 in July. The fresh COVID wave in Japan, although comes without any broad-based new restrictions, is impeding the services demand and will likely weigh on Q3 GDP growth. Europe and UK PMIs may spell further caution The Euro-area flash composite PMI and the UK flash PMI for August are both due to be released on Tuesday. Following a slide in ZEW and Sentix indicators for July, the stage is set for a weaker outcome on the PMIs too. July composite PMI for the Euro-area dipped into contractionary territory at 49.9, while the UK measure held up at 52.1. The surge in gas and electricity prices continue to weigh on GDP growth outlook, with recession likely to hit by the end of the year. China’s plan to provide loans to ensure delivery of presold residential projects is said to be of the size of RMB 200 billion Last Frida, Xinhua News reported that the PBoC, jointly with the Housing Ministry and the Ministry of Finance rolled out a program to make special loans through policy banks to support the delivery of stalled residential housing projects but the size of the program was not mentioned.   A Bloomberg report yesterday, citing “people familiar with the matter”, suggested the size of the support lending program could be as large as RMB 200 billion.  Beijing municipal government rolled out initiatives to promote hydrogen vehicles The municipal government of Beijing announced support for the construction of hydrogen vehicle refueling stations with RMB500 million for each station, aiming at building 37 new stations by 2023 and bringing the adoption of fuel-cell cars to over 10,000 units in the capital. Earlier in the month, the Guangdong province released a plan to build 200 hydrogen vehicle refueling stations by 2025. Since last year, there have been 13 provinces and municipalities rolling out policies to promote the development of the hydrogen vehicle industry.  Earnings on tap Reportedly there have been shorts being built up in Dollar Tree (DLTR:xnys) as traders are expecting that discount retailer missing when reporting this Thursday.   On the other hand, investors are expecting Dollar General (DG:xnys) results to come in more favourably, , which also reports this Thursday.  Key earnings scheduled to release today including Medtronic (MDT:xnys), Intuit (INTU:xnas), JD.COM (09618.xhkg/JD.xnas), JD Logistics (02615:xhkg), Kingsoft (02888:xhkg), and Kuishaou (01023:xhkg). Singapore reports July inflation figures today Singapore's inflation likely nudged higher in July, coming in close proximity to 7% levels from 6.7% y/y in June. While both food and fuel costs continue to create upside pressures on inflation, demand-side pressures are also increasing as the region moves away from virus curbs. House rentals are also running high due to high demand and delayed construction limiting supplies. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has tightened monetary policy but more tightening moves can be expected in H2 even as the growth outlook has been downwardly revised.     For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 23, 2022
"Futures Market Is Disconnected From Underlying Fundamental Developments," Said The Saudi Energy Minister

"Futures Market Is Disconnected From Underlying Fundamental Developments," Said The Saudi Energy Minister

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 24.08.2022 09:49
Summary:  US equities continued to push sharply lower yesterday as the strong US dollar is in focus as EURUSD dropped well below parity yesterday. US Treasury yields are playing their part in pressuring sentiment as the US 10-year yield benchmark rose above 3.00%. The next important event risk is this Friday’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech from Fed Chair Powell, as the Fed is expected to remind the market that it remains in full inflation-fighting mode, pushing back against the impression that it may be set to cut rates next year.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures extended their losses yesterday as the US 10-year yield moved above the 3% level and the Fed Funds futures curve moved lower across the whole curve (meaning less rate cuts expected next year). Markets are beginning to second-guess their aggressive bets in July on inflation cooling fast enough to warrant rate cuts next year as the galloping energy crisis makes it difficult for inflation to cool. Tangibles-driven themes such as commodities, logistics, energy storage and financials were the relative winners in yesterday’s session. S&P 500 futures are now in the support zone from before the last leg up that started on 10 August; we see the 4,100 level as the next level to watch on the downside and then the 100-day moving average at 4,085. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Hang Seng Index and CSI300 were both down about 0.6%. A Bloomberg report yesterday, citing “people familiar with the matter”, suggested the size of the central bank and other authorities’ support lending program to developers could be as large as RMB 200bn. The reaction of the share prices of Chinese Property developers were mixed, Country Garden (02007:hkg) +3.1%, Longfor (00960:xhkg) -1.4%. Postal Savings Bank of China (01658:xhkg) plunged 5.5% after the Chinese bank reported net profit miss with a 10 bps y/y fall in net interest margin to 2.27% in H1. Gross loans grew 13% y/y in H1 but at a more tepid growth of 3% q/q.  Non-performing loans ratio overall was steady at 0.8% but mortgage NPL ratio climbed by 8 bps to 0.52%. US dollar rally following through The US dollar rally continued apace yesterday, as EURUSD traded well below parity and closed at its lowest level in nearly twenty years yesterday. GBPUSD has teased below 1.1760, its lowest level since a one-off pandemic-outbreak spike in early 2020, while other USD pairs are not yet at extremes of the cycle, including AUDUSD, still well above the sub-0.6700 lows of July, and USDJPY, which has not yet challenged the cycle high north of 139.00. There is clearly a reflexive situation at the moment in the US dollar, risk sentiment and US treasury yields. USDCNH Broad USD strength remains behind the weaker CNH in the USDCNH exchange rate as the CNH continues to rise versus, for example, the EUR, while the CNHJPY exchange rate trades near the important 20.00 area. Any more significant move in this critical exchange rate could quickly steal some of the focus away from the US dollar. The contrast between an easing PBOC (moving once again earlier this week) and tightening central banks nearly everywhere else is stark. The next important level for the pair is 7.00, with the range high of the last decade near 7.20. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices made a sharp U-turn higher on Monday after the Saudi Energy Minister talked about a potential production cut after saying the futures market has become increasingly disconnected from underlying fundamental developments, a view that we share. His comment supported the market on a day where risk appetite generally took a knock from the stronger dollar and falling equity markets. A global shift from gas to oil, from Europe to Asia, has taken a deeper hold amid gas shortage fears accelerating in the wake of another upcoming maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and heatwaves in China. Diesel prices trades higher supported by refinery margins, the so-called crack spread hitting seasonal highs around the world. Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) Gold broke below the key $1744 support on Monday before finding support at $1729, the 61.8% retracement of the July to August bounce. Dollar strength and a run higher in US yields weighed on the shine of the yellow metal, which has seen downside pressures since last week after touching the critical $1800-level. Hawkish Fed talk this week could further weigh on the short-term prospects for Gold. Silver also dipped below the key 19 handle, erasing most of the gains seen since late July. German year-ahead power prices hit a fresh record high German year-ahead power prices surged to EUR 700/MWh with Dutch TTF gas prices close to EUR 300/MWh. The surge came on the back of another leg higher in natural gas prices