wti crude oil

  • WTI crude oil has started to evolve into a short-term uptrend phase reinforced by the recent liquidity infusion by China’s central bank, PBoC upcoming 50 bps cut on the RRR.
  • The current 5-day rally of WTI crude oil has reached a key medium-term resistance zone of US$79.00/79.40 with a short-term overbought condition.
  • At the risk of a minor mean reversion decline with intermediate supports at US$75.30 and US$74.80.

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Sideways within a potential minor bottoming configuration” published on 16 January 2024. Click here for a recap.

Benchmark oil prices have bottomed and traded higher since the start of this week as the West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) had rallied by +4.9% week-to-date at this time of the writing, its best weekly gain since the 9 October 2023.

On top of the rising geopolitical risk premium that is supporting firmer oil prices from the ongoing tensions in the Middle East re

Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand

Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 19.01.2022 16:10
  Crude oil prices closed yesterday near their 7-year highs. What do you think are the main price drivers prevailing for this surge on crude oil prices? Geopolitical Situation Crude oil prices closed yesterday near their 7-year highs, as an attack on an oil site in Abu Dhabi further strained an already tense market. The concern about the deterioration of the situation between Ukraine and Russia, which has been occurring for several days, has been overtaken by the attack on the infrastructures of the United Arab Emirates. On Monday, an attack probably committed by drones blew up three tank trucks near the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)’s reservoirs. This strike, claimed by the Houthi rebels in Yemen, killed three people and injured six others, without damaging the emirate's oil installations. Therefore, this attack increases the likelihood of seeing production losses at a time when supply is already very tight. On the other hand, the spread of the civil war in Yemen could signal that a new Iranian nuclear deal is out of the question anytime soon, thus depriving the market of Iranian crude oil barrels since the Houthi rebels are indeed close to Iran. Still, in the Middle Eastern region, yesterday an explosion damaged an oil pipeline linking Iraq to Turkey through which some 450,000 barrels of crude transit per day, thus cutting off flow from Iraq. This news has boosted prices, making them reach new records. It appears now that this Iraq-Turkey pipeline was back in operation earlier this morning, according to the Turkish public company Botas. Supply/Demand Dynamics As the market worries about supply, OPEC+ on Tuesday maintained its forecast for a rise in global demand for black gold in 2022, which would reach 100 million barrels per day. Even the IEA has raised its forecast for oil demand this year and warned that the market could experience another year of volatility if supply disappoints. According to the agency, total demand should thus reach a level close to 100 million barrels per day this year. WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) As you can see, there is currently a lot going on in the energy markets to maintain a high level of volatility. In particular, some fundamental drivers and news of supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions often push prices significantly higher. However, it is also interesting to note that they do not seem to be falling back to their previous level once the issues are resolved or when the tensions de-escalate. PS: Don’t forget to switch to the March 2022 contract (CLH22) for WTI Crude Oil. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

WTI rallies into $106.00s, eyes recent highs near $110 with focus on EU’s proposed embargo on Russian oil

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.05.2022 16:23
Oil prices are sharply higher on Wednesday, with focus on EU proposals for a ban on Russian oil imports. WTI is trading over $3.0 higher in the $106.00s and eyeing recent highs in the $108-$110 area. Oil prices have turned sharply higher this Wednesday in wake of a proposal by the European Commission to phase out all imports of Russian oil within six months, end imports of refined products by the end of the year and kick Russia’s top bank out of the SWIFT global payments system. EU nations will have to unanimously agree on the proposal for it to take effect and a few smaller nations (Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia) have been kicking up a fuss, meaning a final deal was not reached on Wednesday. But envoys from each of the EU’s 27 nations will be meeting again on Thursday and the market's base case is that a deal will be finalised soon. The EU’s proposal will also ban EU companies from providing any shipping, financing or insurance services to aid the transport of Russian crude oil worldwide, a move analysts said would have a “chilling” effect on the global trade of Russian crude oil. Meanwhile, some have argued that once the EU has weened itself of Russian oil, the West will be able to up the pressure on countries still buying Russian crude oil grades, perhaps with the threat of sanctions. As commodity markets brace for further declines in Russian oil output in the coming months as the EU’s latest sanctions take effect in the coming months, front-month WTI futures are trading firmly on the front foot. At current levels in the $106.00s per barrel, WTI is slightly more than $3.00 higher on the day, with oil prices for now shrugging off mixed news coming out of China regarding lockdowns there, as well as further evidence of global growth woes. WTI bulls are eyeing a test of recent highs in the $108-$110 area. Local press reported that Beijing is to extend lockdown measures indefinitely as the city continues to grapple with rising Covid-19 infection rates, however, the situation in Shanghai reportedly continues to improve, with much of the city now out of lockdown as case rates decline. The chilling impact on the global economy of recent Chinese lockdowns was on show on Wednesday with the release of IHS Markit’s global manufacturing PMI survey, which fell into contractionary territory for the first time since June 2020. Looking ahead, official weekly US crude oil inventory figures will be released at 1530BST after private weekly API inventory data showed a larger than expected decline in headline crude oil stocks on Tuesday. This has arguably also supported the price action on Wednesday. Focus then turns to the broader macro theme of central bank tightening later in the US session, with the Fed seen delivering a 50 bps rate hike at 1900BST. On Thursday, OPEC+ is scheduled to meet, with analysts expecting the meeting to be a non-event, with producers set to agree to continue their current policy of hiking output quotas by 400K barrels per day each month. The more important theme right now is how well OPEC+ nations can actually keep up with hikes to output quotas. Smaller nations have been struggling over the last 12 or so months, whilst sanctions mean Russia is also now a big under producer.
Securing Battery Metal Supply Chains: Challenges and Opportunities Amid the Global Energy Transition

Potential Frost Causing Concerns Around Coffee Supplies, Crude Oil Demand Is Expected To Rise, Palladium Price Falls Amidst Easing Concerns Around Supply And Demand

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.05.2022 16:05
Summary: Weather conditions could have an adverse effect on coffee crops. Expected demand for crude oil rises as supply grows tighter. Demand and supply concerns around Palladium are easing. Read next: XAUUSD Prices Rise As Investors Turn To Safer Assets, Cotton Prices, NGAS Prices Still Rising As Concerns Around Supply Continue  Coffee futures prices Coffee futures prices have been falling over the past week amidst easing concerns over the possibility of potentially crop damaging frost in Brazil. Last year the frost in Brazil damaged coffee crops and caused coffee prices to soar, which is keeping the market on edge during the upcoming winter season. Coffee Jul ‘22 Future Price Chart WTI Crude Oil futures prices rise As expected demand rises and supply grows weaker, the price of Crude oil rises. The new French minister said that those who are opposed to a new EU sanction on Russian oil imports could still be convinced. Further sanctions on Russian oil will tighten supplies further than they already are during a time where US demand is expected to rise as memorial day and the summer looms. WTI Crude Oil Jul Futures Price Chart Palladium futures prices decline in the wake of easing supply and demand concerns Concerns around palladium supplies along with demand are easing, causing the price to fall. Global demand is expected to rise by only 3% in 2022 as covid lockdowns and continuing supply chain bottlenecks will likely delay the chip supply recovery until at least 2023, undermining car production around the world. Palladium Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Demand For Brent Crude Oil Rises, Silver Prices Rise, Improved Corn Crop Eases Supply Concerns  Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
What Did Support GDP? | Should Eurozone Worry!? Energy Prices May Weaken Production

EU Reaches An Agreement On The Banning Of Russian Crude Oil, Coffee Prices Rise, Palladium Prices Decline Along With Supply Concerns

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.06.2022 13:30
Summary: Crude Oil prices rise for sixth consecutive month. Coffee prices rise amidst supply concerns. Palladium prices fall along with demand Read next: XAUUSD Prices Fall As The US Dollar Rebounds, Inflationary Pressures Driving Cotton Demand Down, NGAS Price Rising  WTI Crude oil prices rise WTI Crude Oil enters the month of June going on their sixth consecutive month seeing price gains. The most recent gain comes in the wake of China’s easing of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions and the European Union's decision to partially ban Russian crude oil imports. The European Union has finally reached an agreement on the banning of Russian oil imports, the current decision ended with pipeline imports being allowed but seaborne imports being banned. This will cause some issues around supply, however, this most recent ban could pave the way for other crude oil producers to pump more crude into the markets. WTI Crude Oil Price Chart Coffee futures prices rising Coffee futures are trading at their highest price since mid April amidst a strong outlook for dryer conditions for the top producer in Brazil. The market has fears around a lower production in Brazil due to the continuation of La Niña, which reduces rainfall in Central-America. In addition, Colombian coffee exports slipped by 18% year to year. There were also signs pointing towards smaller global coffee supplies falling by 0.1%. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium Futures Palladium prices have fallen by almost 40% below their all time high of $3180 the reduction in price comes from a fall in concerns around supply and demand remains low. Global palladium demand is expected to increase by only 3% in 2022 as covid lockdowns and continuing supply chain bottlenecks will likely delay a recover in the chip supply until 2023 at the very least, undermining car production around the world.   Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: (HPQ) HP Inc. Earnings Beat Market Expectations  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
What Did Support GDP? | Should Eurozone Worry!? Energy Prices May Weaken Production

Coffee Supplies Remain Tight, Supply and Demand Concerns Are Easing For Palladium , WTI Crude Oil Nearing March High

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.06.2022 13:39
Summary: Markets await the US crude inventory report. Disappointing Brazilian coffee supplies. Expectations that the palladium market will close in balance at the end of 2022 Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Should Be Bullish, NGAS Reaches Highest Price Since August 2008, Cotton Crop Planting Is Ahead Of Schedule  WTI Crude Oil prices rising as supplies tighten further On Wednesday, WTI Crude oil futures prices are nearing the near 14 year high that was hit in March, this price rise comes in the wake of expected increase in demand as China comes out of lockdowns, tight global supplies and the summer driving season in the US. The markets are also awaiting a report that will indicate the official US crude inventories, which is expected to have fallen, highlighting the tightness in crude supplies, globally. The CEO of global commodities trader, Trafigura said that the energy markets were in a “critical” state due to sanctions placed on Russian oil inlight of their invasion of the Ukraine which has just built on already tight supplies which were created by years of under-investment. WTI Crude Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee prices volatile amidst changing supply and demand concerns Coffee futures prices hit a peak on June 1st amidst general real strength and concerns over tight supplies. Coffee dealers indicated to traders that the market is well supported by limited flow from Brazil and Central America, the top Brazilian grower lagging on its historical average. The concerns around coffee supplies and demand are driving the futures prices. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium prices are normalising Palladium prices have been falling consistently over the past week due to easing concerns around both demand and supply. The world's largest palladium producer, Nornickel, expects the palladium market to close in balance at the end of 2022. The company also promised they would continue producing in order to meet its obligations, despite logistic obstacles. In addition, global supply demand is expected to increase by only 3% in 2022 as Covid-19 lockdowns and continuing supply chain bottlenecks will likely delay recovery of chip supplies until at least 2023, thus undermining car production. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Oil Could Be Ready To Pop, The Bank Of England Market Pricing Is More Mixed

Coffee Prices Rising Amidst Tight Supply Concerns, WTI Oil Facing Its First Weekly Decline Since Mid-April, Platinum Prices At 6 Week Low

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.06.2022 16:01
Summary: WTI crude futures price dropped on Friday, heading for their first weekly decline since mid-April. Concerns around dryer weather conditions in certain areas of Brazil and smaller output in Columbia. Platinum prices reached their lowest in 6 weeks. Read next: Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Are Falling, Expectations Of Cooling NGAS Demand, Cotton’s Demand Weakening  WTI Oil prices declining in the wake of rising consumer prices WTI crude futures price dropped on Friday, heading for their first weekly decline since mid-April, in the wake of a highly uncertain outlook for global growth and fuel demand following numerous interest rate hikes around the world this week that took a toll on the markets. The International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday that the combination of soaring energy prices and weakening economic forecasts dimmed the outlook for future demand. In addition, investors watched the supply tightness for WTI crude after the US announced sanctions on Iran. This added to concerns around production shortfalls among OPEC members and disruptions caused by unrest in Libya and Russia’s war in Ukraine.   WTI Oil Price Chart Concerns around coffee supplies. Coffee prices rose amidst concerns around tight supplies in Brazil and a softer dollar. Brazil is behind on their coffee harvest, having harvested only 28% as of June 14th. In addition, there were also concerns around dryer weather conditions in certain areas of Brazil and smaller output in Columbia. Coffee Futures Price Chart Platinum demand remains subdued Platinum prices reached their lowest in 6 weeks on Friday in the wake of rising US treasury yields which followed higher than expected US CPI inflation data, driving the demand for platinum lower. In addition the demand for the metal is expected to remain low from top consumer China as it re-imposed Covid-19 restrictions, just weeks after easing in major cities as the country saw a fresh outburst of new infections. Platinum Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

Tighter Supply Concerns For WTI Crude Oil, Coffee Prices At 2 Week Lows, Palladium Prices Are Rising With Expectations Of Increasing Demand

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.06.2022 09:46
Summary: WTI Crude Oil prices have been rallying as investors weigh concerns over ongoing supply tightness over a potential slowdown in demand. Concerns around dry weather conditions in Brazil may lead to lower coffee yields. Palladiums prices rise in the wake of China easing covid restrictions in China WTI Crude Oil Prices are rising as concerns around supply outweigh demand concerns WTI Crude Oil prices have been rallying as investors weigh concerns over ongoing supply tightness over a potential slowdown in demand. Industry data reflected that Crude inventories declined last week worse than the market has expected. In addition the US crude benchmark jumped 2% in the previous session in the wake of reports that major producers UAE and Saudi Arabia are at (or very close to) near term limits, whilst simultaneously unrest in Ecuador and Libya which threaten to tighten supply further. This comes before an OPEC+ meeting this week, where the group is expected to stick to its policy of modest output increases. WTI Crude Oil Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee prices downside may be limited Arabica Coffee futures are trading at around 2 week lows as coffee production improved. In addition, the USDA projected global coffee production to rise in their 2022/23, mainly due to Brazil’s arabica crop entering the on-year of the biennial production cycle. However, concerns around dry weather conditions in Brazil may lead to lower coffee yields and limit the downside in coffee prices. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium Prices Rise Palladium Futures have risen to around 2 week highs after they rebounded from 6 month lows that we hit in mid-June in the wake of China’s decision to lift covid restrictions in Shanghai which lifted hopes of a recovery in metal demand. China is the largest consumer of palladium, and accounts for 26% of the total global consumption. In parallel, traders expect major central banks to ease back from aggressive monetary tightening due to easing inflation and disappointing macroeconomic figures, raising expectations of a recovery in global economy and in turn consumer spending.   Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Commodities: EU Members Manage To Agree On Price Caps For Russian Oil

WTI Crude Prices Recover On Wednesday, Supply Prospects Of Coffee Are Improving, Palladium Prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.07.2022 11:47
Summary: WTI crude oil prices rose in the wake of fears that a recession could hurt demand were balanced by continuous concerns around supply. Arabica coffee prices were down from a three-week high on Wednesday. Palladium supply concerns weighed against demand concerns. Read next: Exxon (XOM) Price Falls In the Wake Of Declining Energy Prices  WTI Oil prices have been falling since mid-June WTI crude oil futures prices rose above during Wednesday's trading day after falling more than 8% and closing below the key level on Tuesday in the wake of fears that a recession could hurt demand were balanced by continuous concerns around supply. Wednesday Crude price was also attributed to (by some analysts) bargain hunting and short-coverings. Tight supply concerns were highlighted by OPEC’s Secretary general who announced on Tuesday that the oil industry was “under siege” in the wake of years of underinvestment, he also added that the shortages could be eased if Venezuelian and Iranian crude oil supplies were allowed. At the same time, crude prices have been falling since mid-June in the wake of recessionary concerns causing poor demand prospects. WTI Crude Oil Aug Futures Price Chart Coffee prices down as supply prospects improve Arabica coffee prices were down from a three-week high on Wednesday in the wake of both positive global outlook of improved production and a bearish macroeconomic environment. Although supplies are expected to improve, prospects of tight supply remain as concerns around dry weather conditions in Brazil continue. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Traders weighing supply vs demand on Palladium Traders are currently trying to balance fears of tight supply with weak demand prospects, setting the Palladium metals price above its 1-month low hit on 4th July. Continuous aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Federal Reserve has strengthened prospects of a recession and has dampened demand. In addition, new Covid-19 cases in the world's largest Palladium consumer sparked fears for the imposition of tighter lockdown measures. On the supply side, disruptions of imports from Russia continue as the war in the Ukraine continues and trade restrictions continue to be imposed from the west onto Russia. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Aggressive Fed Increases The Opportunity Cost OF Holding Silver, WTI Crude Oil Prices, Corn: Traders Weigh Weak Demand & Tight Supply

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.07.2022 13:07
Summary: Aggressive Fed turning investors away from silver Lower demand prospects outweigh tight supply concerns for WTI Crude Oil. Commodity traders are watching weather in top growing corn regions. Read next: Platinum Prices Drop In The Wake Of Slower Demand Prospects, RBOB Gasoline Prices, Wheat Prices Below Pre-Russian Invasion Levels  Silver Prices hitting July 2020 lows. Silver prices are staying below the $20 mark per ounce, a level that has not been seen since July 2020. The price decline comes in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s committing to aggressive monetary policy tightening and raising interest rates further, this move causes investors to short the non-yielding metal. The Fed has set markt expectations for back-to-back 75 bps rate hikes in July. This move has Put a floor under prices where lingering concerns about slowing economic growth, mainly in Europe, as surging gas prices threaten the outlook for the Euro bloc. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Lower demand prospects outweigh tight supply concerns for WTI Crude Oil The price of crude futures are expected to close low on Friday as concerns around a global recession and its impact on the demand for crude oil outweighs the concerns around tight-supplies. The US oil benchmark has declined by 5% this week, tracking a broader decline in commodity markets in the wake of restrictive monetary policy among major economies threatening a global recession. Crude prices are still up 35% this year as global economic recovery coincided with Russia’s invasion in the Ukraine. WTI Crude Aug Futures Price Chart Corn prices Corn futures prices are currently hovering as the market weighs up favourable weather conditions and weak demand over tighter supply prospects. Weather conditions in top corn growing regions are being watched closely by traders. On the demand side, the combination of weak economic global data and aggressive monetary tightening from central banks is raising fears of a economic slowdown. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Palladium Prices Falling Amidst Weaker Demand Prospects, WTI Crude Oil Stockpile Inventory Came In Below Expectations, Coffee Futures

Palladium Prices Falling Amidst Weaker Demand Prospects, WTI Crude Oil Stockpile Inventory Came In Below Expectations, Coffee Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.07.2022 17:14
Summary: Palladium prices are falling. US crude stockpile inventory came in lower than expected. Coffee output expected to come in lower. Read next: Altcoins: Harmony (ONE) - What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into the Harmony (ONE) Platform  Palladium prices drop amidst weaker demand prospects Palladium prices held steady near the six-month low of $2000 per tonne as expectations of a weaker demand overcame concerns about a supply shortage. As a result of increasing interest rates around the world, frequent lockdowns in China, a major customer, and other factors, the market for the metal is expected to fall. Concerns about supply disruptions from Russia, the metal's largest supplier, continue to exist on the supply side as the conflict in Ukraine shows no indications of coming to an end. Vladimir Potanin, a Russian tycoon who owns a 36% share in Nornickel, the largest palladium manufacturer in the world, was recently sanctioned by Britain. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart WTI Crude Oil prices On Wednesday, WTI crude futures oscillated back around $95.7 per barrel as traders considered inventory levels against a backdrop of doubt on the demand outlook. Government statistics confirmed Tuesday's industry reports that US crude oil stockpiles dropped by more than 4 million barrels last week, far more than the median estimate of a million barrel loss. Additionally, the draw in gasoline supplies of 3.3 million barrels substantially above forecasts of a 0.9 million barrel reduction. Concerns that a transition to oil would be forced by decreased gas supplies from Russia to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline support the optimistic sentiment. The White House announced the sale of an additional 20 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves on the supply side. Last but not least, caution prevailed amid ongoing worries over a potential impending recession ahead of the Federal Reserve's anticipated 75 bps rate hike later in the day. WTI Crude Oil Futures Sep Price Chart Coffee Futures Due to limited stocks and ongoing worries about declining coffee yields in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading above the $2 per pound threshold. According to the most recent data, ICE-monitored coffee inventories have reached a 23-year low of 712,817 bags. Given the bullish outlook for the commodity, additional upward momentum could be anticipated this year. Coffee recently hit a nearly 10-year high of $2.6. From a previous projection of a +1.2 mln bag surplus, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) has reduced its global 2020/21 supply estimate to a deficit of -3.13 mln bags. Additionally, ICO downgraded its projections for worldwide output while highlighting stronger global consumption. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Coffee Prices Supported By Concerns Around Low Supplies, Palladium Reaching 2-week Highs, WTI Crude Oil Futures Hitting Lowest Levels Since February

Coffee Prices Supported By Concerns Around Low Supplies, Palladium Reaching 2-week Highs, WTI Crude Oil Futures Hitting Lowest Levels Since February

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.08.2022 16:56
Summary: WTI Crude prices under pressure. More upward momentum for coffee futures is expected. Palladium futures. WTI Crude Oil Futures A larger-than-expected drop in US crude stocks was more than offset by rising threats of a global recession and a potential increase in Iranian supply, which kept WTI crude futures under pressure at around $86 per barrel on Wednesday, the lowest since February. In response to a "final" draft agreement on renewing the 2015 nuclear agreement, the EU said on Tuesday that it was researching Iran's answer. Analysts predicted that a prospective deal might release approximately 2.5 million bpd of Iranian petroleum to the world markets. The potential of a worldwide economic slowdown, which may significantly affect energy demand, has also remained a concern for investors. Major central banks are expected to boost interest rates further to reduce inflation. According to a report from the industry, US crude stockpiles dropped by 448,000 barrels last week, compared to market expectations of a decline of 117,000 barrels. WTI Crude Oil Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee predicted to rise due to low stocks Due to low stocks and ongoing worries about decreased coffee yields in leading producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading at $2.2 per pound, a level not seen in a month. The most recent data showed that 571,580 bags—a new 23-year low—were held in ICE-monitored coffee stocks. Early in February, coffee prices rose to over a decade highs of $2.6; this year, more upward momentum may be anticipated. From an earlier projection of a 1.2 million bag surplus, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) has reduced its global supply estimate for 2021/22 to a shortfall of 3.13 million bags. Additionally, ICO downgraded its projections for worldwide output while highlighting stronger global consumption. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium reaching 2 week highs Palladium futures increased to their highest level in over two weeks, approaching $2100 a tonne, as significant dollar-denominated commodity buying increased in response to a halt in the dollar's rally. After the Fed chair reduced expectations for more large rate hikes while lifting the interest rate as widely anticipated, the US dollar stayed near 2-month lows. As the situation in Ukraine shows no signs of ending, worries about shipping problems from Russia, the metal's primary supplier, continue to exist. Vladimir Potanin, a Russian tycoon who owns 36% of Nornickel, the largest palladium manufacturer in the world, was recently sanctioned by Britain. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
In Germany, The Next-Year Prices For Energy Are Astonishing! Why?

Coffee Futures Trading At Highest Level Since June 22, Palladium Sees Lowest Prices In A Month, WTI Crude Oil Stockpiles Dropped

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.08.2022 15:07
Summary: Fears around global supplies for crude oil persist. Increased anxiety around world coffee supplies. Worsening outlook for outlook for the auto industry weighing on palladium futures. WTI Crude Oil Futures After a report from the industry revealed another larger-than-expected drop in US crude stockpiles, adding to fears about a tightening global supply, WTI crude futures maintained their recent surge above $95 per barrel on Wednesday. US crude stockpiles dropped by 5.632 million barrels last week, according to a late-Tuesday API data; this was significantly more than the 900,000 barrel drop that analysts had predicted. Analysts anticipate a 933,000 barrel decline in the official EIA data that will be issued later in the day. Tuesday saw an almost 4% increase in oil prices after Saudi Arabia hinted at potential production curbs from OPEC+ to fend off negative pressure on prices. The price of petroleum is still down nearly 25% from its peak in June due to rising concerns that a global economic slowdown will reduce consumer spending as major central banks aggressively raise interest rates to fight inflation. Oil prices now face additional downside risks from the potential collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement, which would increase Iranian oil shipments. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Coffee Futures Due to indications of severe dryness in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading at their highest level since June 22. This increased anxiety over world supplies. According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais, which produces 30% of Brazil's arabica crop, had 0% of the normal amount of rain in the previous week. According to Maxar Technologies, the La Nina weather pattern is likely to persist through the end of the year. This suggests that Brazil will receive less rain through the end of the year, which could intensify the drought and put more strain on the country's coffee harvests. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium Futures Late in August, the price of palladium futures fell to its lowest level in a month, trading around $1,990 per ounce as the Fed's anticipated aggressive rate hikes increased demand for the US dollar and scared investors away from non-interest-bearing assets. The worsening prognosis for the auto industry put pressure on futures, which decreased demand for autocatalyst parts. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Commodities Update: Strong Russian Oil Flows to China and Volatility in European Gas Market

Platinum futures drop to their lowest level in a month, RBOB Gasoline, Wheat Futures Close To 10-month Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.08.2022 15:22
Summary: A hawkish Fed is causing investors to shy away from non-yielding assets. Ships transporting Ukrainian grain out of Black Sea ports continued to run without a hitch. RBOB Gasoline. Platinum Futures touching one-month lows Late in August, platinum futures experienced a decline to below $880 per ounce, the lowest level in a month, and followed other precious metals as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers boosted demand for the US dollar and scared investors away from non-interest-bearing assets. A global economic slowdown's effect on the auto industry's outlook, which lowered demand for autocatalyst components, also put pressure on prices. In July, car registrations were down year over year in the UK, Germany, and Italy, while declines were seen in the US and Canada according to June statistics. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat futures remain close to 10 month lows Late in August, with a lack of certainty over the weather in the US's growing regions, Chicago wheat futures eked out a small gain. Despite this, prices remained near to the 10-month low reached last week and were far lower than they were before Russia invaded Ukraine, as ships transporting Ukrainian grain out of Black Sea ports continued to run without a hitch. It is anticipated that Ukraine will sell more than 20 million tonnes of grain that are said to have collected in port silos since its invasion began on February 24 in addition to freeing up critical storage space for the next wheat harvest. Meanwhile, the USDA raised the world's supplies upward in its most recent WASDE report, boosted by projections for record production in Russia and higher output from China and Australia. The outlooks for US supplies were also upgraded because strong spring wheat more than made up for declines in winter and durum wheat. Wheat Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline According to AAA, the national average cost of gas in the United States has decreased for 70 days in a row to $3.89 a gallon. However, buyers shouldn't get complacent and believe that this streak will continue all the way to the end of the year. And one energy trader predicts that gas prices will rise once more, especially as we head into the fall and winter. RBOB Gasoline Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

Gold Prices Dip In the Wake Of Hawkish Fed Comments, Cotton Futures Trading Near 2-month Highs, Brent Crude Supplies Are Expected To Tighten

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.08.2022 15:02
Summary: US economy shrank in the second quarter at a moderate rate. Reduced global cotton supplies. Brent crude futures rose. Gold prices dip In anticipation of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the day, gold prices dipped below $1,760 an ounce on Friday. Following a slew of hawkish comments from Fed officials, Powell is expected to reiterate the central bank's aggressive stance against rising inflation. However, the markets are still split on whether the Fed will deliver another supersized 75 basis point or a more modest half-percentage point rate hike in September. A final estimate revealed that the US economy shrank in the second quarter at a more modest rate, bolstering the case for additional monetary tightening and maintaining pressure on the bullion markets. Although analysts predict further volatility should Powell's words surprise markets, gold is expected to close the week with minimal change. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures trade near 2-month highs Trading in cotton futures was relatively close to the nearly two-month high reached on August 16 as traders weighed the likelihood of reduced global supplies against a slowing in demand. The most recent USDA data stated that due to drought, particularly in Texas, which generally accounts for more than half of the US plantings, US production for 2022–2023 is predicted to drop to 12.6 million bales, which would be the lowest level since 2009–2010. The USDA also decreased its forecasts for global cotton consumption and production by 800,000 bales and 3.1 million bales, respectively. Heavy rains and bugs have severely damaged the cotton fields in India, another top producer, to the point where the government is now importing cotton. The projection of production this year has come down to 31.5 million bales while consumption is 34.5 million bales. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude supply tightening With a tightening supply forecast and hints of improving short-term fuel demand, Brent crude futures increased to almost $100 per barrel on Friday and were expected to end the week more than 3% higher. Official US data released on Wednesday revealed record crude and refined product exports last week along with a sustained fall in crude stocks. Additionally, traffic levels in the Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America increased significantly in the week leading up to August 24 according to TomTom's Congestion Index data. On the supply front, Saudi Arabia issued a warning that OPEC+ would reduce output to calm choppy markets. However, some OPEC sources told Reuters that such a move may not be imminent and that it would take place at the same time as Iranian oil returning to the international market. Brent prices, however, fell 1.9% on Thursday as negotiations to resurrect the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the West appeared to be moving forward. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Recession Fears Continue To Rattle the Commodity Markets - Brent Crude Oil, Silver Futures Touch 4-week lows, Corn Futures Reach 6-week Highs.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.08.2022 14:00
Summary: Investors weigh Brent crude supply against a prolonged economic slowdown. Silver futures fall in the wake of declining demand and rising interest rates. Poor corn crop drives prices. Brent Crude Oil holding steady heading into the week Following a 4.4% increase last week, Brent crude futures held steady above $100 per barrel on Monday as investors weighed supply-side concerns against concerns that a prolonged global economic slowdown may damage gasoline consumption. In an effort to calm the choppy markets, Saudi Arabia suggested last week that OPEC+ production might be reduced. Congo and Libya backed this idea. Fears of more oil flow disruption were fueled by violent confrontations between rival militias in Libya's capital, while delays at a crucial Kazakhstani crude export facility continued. Expectations of an immediate restart of Iranian oil shipments have been reduced as nuclear discussions between the US and Iran continue into next month. Fears of a recession have been rattling commodity markets since June, and oil is expected to decrease for a third consecutive month. Jerome Powell, the chair of the US Federal Reserve, emphasized the need for higher interest rates on Friday, even at the risk of some short-term economic hardship, and ECB leaders shared the same outlook. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart   Silver prices are touching 4 week lows The price of silver dropped to a 4-week low of 18.678 USD/t.oz due to declining demand and rising interest rates all across the world. As China and India take advantage of cheap oil and gas from Russia, while Europe is shifting back to coal as an energy option, progress toward green technology, such as the development of solar panels, has suffered a setback. The Inflation Reduction Act, however, will allocate $430 billion to renewable energy in the US. Additionally, a recession in the global economy is causing large consumers to buy less silver jewelry and buy less technology and cars. Store closings caused by Covid epidemics have caused China and India to decline. On the supply front, Latin America's silver production has recovered from the Covid-19 setback thanks to the region's largest producers, Mexico and Peru, who relaxed limitations before the rest of the world. Since its March peak, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked a rally in precious metals, silver has fallen by almost 30%. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart   Corn futures touching 6-week highs After the USDA reported poor crop conditions amid heatwaves in the Midwest and plains, corn climbed to a 6-week high. The organization gave a rating of 55% good to excellent for the US maize crop, down from 57% the week before. Regarding demand, the USDA reported that export inspections reached a total of 740,508 tonnes in the week ending August 18th, which was in line with market expectations. As a result of anticipating additional damage from the recent dry and hot weather, the European Union's crop monitoring service MARS reduced its production projections once more for summer crops throughout the union, including significant reductions in maize (corn). Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Saxo Bank Podcast: Natural Gas On Colder Weather, Wheat And Coffee Under Pressure, JPY Weaker And More

NGAS Prices Touching Near 14-year Highs, Cotton Futures Trading Near Two-month Highs, Gold Futures Fall To Near One-month Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.08.2022 14:58
Summary: Heatwaves in the U.S and a pause in Gas flowing through the Noord Stream 1 pipeline. Gold’s appeal falling. Global cotton supplies look bleak. NGAS prices close to 14 year highs Following the expiration of the front-month September contract on Monday, US natural gas futures declined. Nevertheless, despite predictions for hotter weather and more cooling demand, prices are still very close to a more than 14-year high reached last week. As energy generators increase production to fulfill the demand for more cooling due to a string of heatwaves this summer across the US, demand from gas-fired power plants has reached all-time highs. The bullish outlook was further boosted by prospects of greater demand for US LNG supplies amid mounting worries about shortages in Europe. Russia's Gazprom announced that beginning on Wednesday, flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe would be stopped for three days. As a result of retracting earlier claims of an October restart and halting further upward momentum, Freeport LNG said that it will postpone the restart of its Quintana export project until November. NGAS Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart A strong dollar is driving the demand for gold down Tuesday saw gold prices linger around $1,740 per ounce, near to the one-month low they reached the previous session, and under pressure from a strong dollar amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to rise. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to raise and hold rates at a restrictive level until inflation falls significantly in his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. He added that doing otherwise may harm growth and weaken the employment market. Policymakers of the European Central Bank argued for a more forceful response to rising inflation over the weekend, and they are allegedly talking about increasing interest rates by 75 basis points in September. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion, which reduces the appeal of gold, despite the fact that it is commonly seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices trading near two-month highs The price of cotton futures was trading close to a nearly two-month high reached on August 16 as traders weighed the likelihood of reduced global supplies against a slowing in demand. The most recent USDA data stated that due to drought, particularly in Texas, which generally accounts for more than half of the US plantings, US production for 2022–2023 is predicted to drop to 12.6 million bales, which would be the lowest level since 2009–2010. The USDA also decreased its forecasts for global cotton consumption and production by 800,000 bales and 3.1 million bales, respectively. Heavy rains and bugs have severely damaged the cotton fields in India, another top producer, to the point where the government is now importing cotton. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Coffee Is In Danger As Its Suppliers Have Troubles With Crops

WTI Crude Oil Prices Are Falling, Coffee Futures Trading Near 6-month Highs, Palladium Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.08.2022 14:48
Summary: Concerns around demand for crude oil is driving the prices down. Coffee futures trading higher amidst concerns around crop production. WTI Crude Oil prices on track to lose more than 8% in August WTI crude futures resumed their downward trend on Wednesday, falling to about $89 per barrel, continuing the loss from the previous session and putting them on track to lose over 8% of their value in August as concerns about tight monetary policy and Covid limits in China push energy demand downward. Since aggressive measures are required to stabilize consumer prices after the eurozone's inflation rate extended its record-high in August, ECB officials stated a 75 bps rate increase is being considered for their upcoming meeting. The Fed is also anticipated to maintain high borrowing costs for an extended period of time, even if doing so slows growth. New Covid outbreaks, which forced millions of people into stringent lockdowns in the key Chinese cities of Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Dalian, added to concerns about sluggish economic activity in the world's largest oil importer after August PMI data showed contraction for the second consecutive month. Conflicts in Iraq kept markets on edge in terms of supply, but the country's oil production was mainly unaffected. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Palladium prices have risen overall in 2022 Since the start of 2022, palladium prices have climbed by 187.18 USD/t oz., or 9.89%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee Futures As the attention remained on the weather in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on ICE were trading down marginally from an almost six-month high that was achieved on August 25. Concerns that there might not be enough moisture to sustain the development of coffee buds and cherries after some early flowering were allayed by the forecast for rain in Brazilian coffee regions over the following ten days. However, Maxar Technologies reported last week that the effects of La Nina are likely to persist through the end of the year. This suggests that Brazil will receive less rain through the end of the year, which could exacerbate the country's current drought and put additional strain on its coffee crops. After reaching a 23-year low of 571,580 bags on August 15, the most recent data showed that ICE-certified arabica stockpiles on August 29th remained at 663,874 bags, an increase of eight consecutive days. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Platinum Prices Drop To November 2020 Lows, US Gasoline Prices Falling, Wheat Prices Elevated

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.09.2022 15:41
Summary: Elevated interest rates continue to drive platinum prices down. Supply concerns around wheat drive prices. US Gasoline prices fall to pre-Russia’s invasion of Ukraine levels. Platinum touching lowest levels since November 2020 As global interest rates are expected to continue rising and should remain high for a prolonged period of time, even if it slows growth, platinum futures extended losses to below $850 per ounce, closing in on their lowest level since November of 2020. They have also been tracking other precious metals lower. The fed funds rate has already increased by 225 basis points since March at the Federal Reserve, the most potent central bank in the world. Fed policymakers are now advocating for rises to continue at least until the level of 4% in early 2019. Additionally, despite expectations that they would subside in the second part of the year, ongoing shortages and supply chain problems hurt the auto industry and lower demand for autocatalyst components. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat futures remain elevated Chicago wheat futures saw a strong increase at the end of August after hitting a nine-month low in the middle of the month due to supply issues and increasing demand. According to government figures, Ukraine will harvest close to 20 million tonnes of wheat this year, down from 32.2 million the year prior as a result of weaker yields and the loss of farmed area to Russian forces during their invasion. Additionally, the nation intends to free up storage space for the upcoming harvest by selling the roughly 20 million tonnes of grain that are said to have collected in port silos since its invasion began on February 24. Meanwhile, US heatwaves cut corn harvests, further straining wheat supplies. Wheat Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline On Wednesday, wholesale gasoline prices in the United States plummeted to their lowest levels since before Russia invaded Ukraine, indicating that motorists in the world's largest energy consumer will soon witness cheaper pump prices. Markets for crude oil futures and gasoline have been kept in check by worries about a worldwide recession and a record level of emergency oil sales from national stockpiles. RBOB Gasoline Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Eyes On Iran Nuclear Deal: Oil Case. Gold Price Is Swinging

WTI Crude Oil On Track For Worst Weekly Decline In 4 Weeks, Silver Touching 2-year Lows, Coffee Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.09.2022 14:38
Summary: WTI oil is 30% down from its high. A hawkish fed causing investors to shy away from silver. Weather conditions causing concerns around coffee supplies. WTI Crude Oil weighed down by recessionary fears After falling more than 3% the previous day, oil prices increased by about 3% to over $89 per barrel on Friday amid expectations that OPEC+ will discuss output curbs at a meeting on Monday. However, due to worries about the recession and the effects of additional COVID lockdowns in China, WTI oil is on pace for its worst weekly decline in four weeks and is down more than 30% from its high. Investors are eagerly following the status of talks to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement on the supply side because a prospective agreement might unleash substantial flows from Iran. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Silver futures reaching lows not seen in 2 years In September, silver futures dropped below $18 per ounce, reaching lows not seen in more than two years as the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals prompted investors to switch from metal to the US dollar. The dollar reached over 20-year highs as Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the US central bank's aim of reducing inflation down to the 2% threshold and stated that borrowing costs will remain at a restrictive level for a protracted period even if it hampers GDP. Another factor adding to the flight from precious metals is that the European Central Bank is reportedly considering a larger 75 basis point rate hike to combat inflation at its policy meeting next week. The appeal of storing non-yielding bullion is diminished by increased interest rates, despite the fact that it is widely seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. August is expected to end with silver down roughly 12%. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Concerns around Coffee supplies driving prices As the attention remained on weather in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on ICE were trading down marginally from an almost six-month high that was called on August 25th. Concerns that there might not be enough moisture to sustain the development of coffee buds and cherries after some early flowering were allayed by the forecast for rain in Brazilian coffee regions over the following ten days. However, Maxar Technologies reported last week that the effects of La Nina are likely to persist through the end of the year. This suggests that Brazil will receive less rain through the end of the year, which could exacerbate the country's current drought and put additional strain on its coffee crops. After reaching a 23-year low of 571,580 bags on August 15, the most recent data showed that ICE-certified arabica stockpiles on August 29th remained at 663,874 bags, an increase of eight consecutive days. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

Brent Crude Oil Prices In The Wake Of OPEC+ Surprise Agreement, Silver Futures Down, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.09.2022 17:48
Summary: G7 nations decide to cap Russian oil prices. Demand for silver is diminishing. Corn up throughout 2022. Brent Crude Oil Prices Following OPEC+'s surprise agreement on a modest oil production cut to sustain prices that have fallen due to concerns about a projected worldwide recession-driven decline in demand, Brent crude futures increased past the $96 per barrel threshold. In order to deal with macroeconomic headwinds and counter a potential production increase from Iran, the oil cartel will restrict output by 100,000 barrels per day beginning in October, or around 0.1% of world demand. The market action followed the G7 nations' decision to cap the price of Russian oil in order to limit Moscow's ability to finance its conflict in Ukraine. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver futures touched below $18 per ounce In September, silver futures dropped below $18 per ounce, reaching lows not seen in more than two years as the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals prompted investors to switch from metal to the US dollar. The dollar reached over 20-year highs as Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the US central bank's aim of reducing inflation down to the 2% threshold and stated that borrowing costs will remain at a restrictive level for a protracted period even if it hampers GDP. Another factor adding to the flight from precious metals is that the European Central Bank is reportedly considering a larger 75 basis point rate hike to combat inflation at its policy meeting next week. The appeal of storing non-yielding bullion is diminished by increased interest rates, despite the fact that it is widely seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. August is expected to end with silver down roughly 12%. Silver Dec ‘22 Future Price Chart Corn Futures up 10.43% Since the start of 2022, corn prices have climbed by 61.89 USd/BU, or 10.43%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Natural Gas Prices Extended The Recovery

Russia Suspends Flow Through The Nord Stream 1 Pipeline, Cotton Futures, Gold Prices Increase For The First Time In 3-weeks

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.09.2022 09:29
Summary: NGAS futures rise in the wake of suspension of Nord Stream 1 pipeline. A stagnant dollar and safe-haven buying prompted by economic uncertainty boosted bullion demand. NGAS futures increasing The second week of September saw a small increase in US natural gas futures, recovering from the 6% drop the previous week to keep pace with the rise in the European benchmark following the indefinite suspension of Russian gas exports through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The action reversed the prior declaration by Russian supplier Gazprom that flows will start up again on Saturday after a maintenance outage, adding to worries over Europe's energy shortage before the winter. Meanwhile, a string of heatwaves that have hit the US this summer have increased demand for gas-fired power facilities. Freeport LNG announced that the launch of its Quintana export project would be postponed until November. NGAS Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton Futures Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity shows that cotton has dropped 3.01 USd/Lbs, or 2.67%, since the start of 2022. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold futures rising After falling for the previous three weeks, gold prices increased above $1,710 an ounce on Tuesday as a stagnant dollar and safe-haven buying prompted by economic uncertainty boosted bullion demand. As traders took some profits and anticipated this week's speeches by Federal Reserve officials and policy announcements from other significant central banks, the dollar's unrelenting rally came to a halt. Following the announcement that gas shipments via the crucial Nord Stream 1 pipeline will not resume, a worsening energy crisis in Europe also rekindled recessionary fears, prompting investors to seek for safer assets. As the Federal Reserve is anticipated to continue with aggressive interest rate hikes to combat excessive inflation, gold is likely to remain under pressure. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia also announced its fourth consecutive 50 basis point rate increase, and later this week, the European and Canadian central banks are expected to do the same. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Commodities: EU Members Manage To Agree On Price Caps For Russian Oil

WTI Crude Futures Trading Close To January Lows, Potential For Favourable Weather Driving Coffee Futures Down, Palladium Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.09.2022 15:19
Summary: WTI crude futures fell amidst concerns around weak demand. Potential rain in Brazil driving coffee futures down. Strong US dollar. WTI Crude Oil trading close to January lows WTI crude futures were trading close to January's lows around $87 per barrel on Wednesday due to ongoing worries about slowing global growth and therefore weak demand. Weak customs statistics from the world's largest importer, China, and new coronavirus-related limitations in a number of cities raised the possibility of significant economic harm and decreased gasoline usage. In addition, lingering worries about global economy and the prospect of protracted tighter financial conditions continued to depress mood. With Saudi Arabia foreshadowing more action, OPEC+ surprisingly agreed to cut supply by 100,000 barrels per day beginning in October, providing a floor under prices. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Coffee Futures fell amidst favourable weather potential As the attention remained on the weather in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading down marginally from an almost six-month high hit on August 25. The setback has been exacerbated by the likelihood of rain in some regions of Brazil's coffee-growing regions over the upcoming few weeks, but dealers said there are still questions about whether there will be enough moisture to support development of coffee buds and cherries after some early flowering. As of August 31st, 672,585 bags of ICE-certified arabica were in stock, up from a 23-year low of 571,580 bags on August 15th, according to the most recent data. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Shortage of Palladium remains The strongest US dollar in nearly seven weeks, rising interest rates, and slowing GDP all contributed to the decline in palladium futures prices, which dropped below $1,780 per ounce. It is anticipated that central banks would keep raising interest rates to keep inflation from soaring even when the economy is slowing. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. Even so, there is still a shortage on the palladium market. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Brent Crude Oil Stayed Quite Strong Yesterday Rising 0.7%, But In The Near Future Commodites May Be Endangered By (USD) US Dollar's Dominance And More

Persistent Likelihood Of A Demand-Draining Global Economic Recession - Brent Crude Oil Futures, Silver Futures, Corn Futures - 13.09.2022

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 12.09.2022 12:00
Summary: Brent crude futures increased by a small amount, extending gains for the third session. Silver futures touching 3 week highs. Brent Crude Oil extends gains for third session On Monday, Brent crude futures increased by a small amount to above $93.5 a barrel, extending gains for the third session. This was achieved despite concerns over a dimming demand picture and a US-led plan to control the price of Russian oil. The likelihood of a demand-draining global economic recession persisted, partly due to aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks and Covid-19 limits implemented by top crude importer China. As European sanctions begin to take effect in December, the Group of Seven is also attempting to persuade additional nations to join their efforts to restrict Moscow's energy revenues by setting a ceiling on Russian oil prices. Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, promised to react by stopping all energy shipments to Europe if a price ceiling were to become law. Iran's commitment to a new nuclear accord has also been questioned by the UK, Germany, and France, which has delayed the possibility of an increase in Iranian oil exports. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver futures touch highest level in 3 weeks In September, silver futures surged to nearly $19 per ounce, the highest level in three weeks, followed by other bullion assets during the US dollar's strong decline as investors continued to gauge how far the Federal Reserve will tighten policy. During the Cato Institute conference, Chairman Powell emphasized the language that the US central bank will keep raising interest rates to bring inflation significantly down, as markets continue to bet on the Fed raising rates by 75 basis points for a third time in a row this month. In other news, the ECB increased borrowing prices by a record-breaking 75 basis points to rein in the eurozone's soaring inflation and hinted at further tightening in upcoming sessions. Futures for silver are expected to end the week more than 4% higher. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn futures have gains 17.5% during 2022 Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that reflects the benchmark market for this commodity shows that corn has gained 103.81 USd/BU or 17.50% since the start of 2022. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

Uncertainty Around Europe's Energy Imports, Cotton Trading At 4-week Lows, Gold Demand Falling

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.09.2022 15:44
Summary: Increased uncertainty regarding the demand for energy imports in Europe. Decreased demand and constrained supplies for cotton. Gold prices dropped to below $1700 an ounce on Tuesday. NGAS futures rose in September While there was increased uncertainty regarding the demand for energy imports in Europe as ministers discussed potential measures to reduce skyrocketing energy prices, US natural futures rose in September, recovering from the one-month low that was reached earlier in the month and extending the volatile momentum for energy commodities. Even so, costs are still well below the almost 14-year high of $10/MMBtu reached last month as demand was hampered by dropping temperatures. More gas will be available in the US for utilities to add to stocks for the upcoming winter as Freeport LNG anticipates a significant delay in the reopening of its Quintana export plant until November. NGAS Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton trading at 4-week lows As traders considered the potential of decreased demand and constrained supplies, cotton futures traded at their lowest level in more than four weeks. Concerns over the prospects for the global economy owing to rising interest rates have been exacerbated by recent COVID-19-led limitations in top consumer China. In its most recent report, the USDA reduced both the U.S. output estimate and the global production forecast for the crop year 2022–2023 by 3 million bales each. The health of the natural fiber crop is in jeopardy, and supply issues have arisen as a result of the hot, dry weather in important American agricultural regions. Crops in India, another significant producer, are still in danger due to unfavorable weather and pest infestations in key growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold futures falling A stronger dollar and a hotter-than-expected inflation print drove predictions of additional big rate hikes by the Fed to quell persistent inflationary pressures, and gold prices dropped to below $1700 an ounce on Tuesday. Despite a dramatic decline in gasoline prices, prices across the board increased overall, particularly for food and housing. Investors in Europe have bet that the ECB will keep raising borrowing costs sharply in the wake of this month's historic 75bps rate hike. Even though gold is regarded as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, its attraction is diminished by increased interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradineconomics.com
Volume Of Crude Oil Rose For The Second Session In A Row

WTI Crude Oil Has Remained Relatively Stable, Coffee Futures, Palladium Futures Touch 4-week Highs

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.09.2022 15:17
Summary: Crude traded in a narrow range as investors continue to gauge the outlook for global demand. Coffee has dropped more than 2% in 2022. Palladium prices are 30% lower than they were in March. WTI Crude Oil stayed relatively stable WTI oil futures have been trading in a narrow range this week, holding around $87 a barrel on Wednesday as investors continue to gauge the outlook for global demand. The International Energy Agency is still pessimistic about fundamentals in the near term, pointing out that as the global economic recession deepens, growth in oil consumption is predicted to decelerate in the last quarter of 2022. However, the Paris-based company anticipates a significant increase in demand by 2023. OPEC, on the other hand, provided a somewhat more upbeat picture, keeping to its projections for worldwide solid oil demand growth in 2022 and the following year and highlighting indications that developed countries are still able to withstand challenges like rising inflation. Market expectations for the continuation of the 2015 nuclear agreement between the West and Iran have fallen in the meanwhile, but reports that the US was considering restocking its strategic oil reserves helped to maintain prices to some extent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Coffee futures Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark price for this commodity shows that coffee has dropped 4.60 USd/Lb or 2.03% since the start of 2022. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium futures touch 4-week highs As the dollar index deviated from 20-year highs, palladium futures increased their gains to $2,200 per ounce, the highest level in almost four weeks. Nevertheless, in spite of rising interest rates and slowing GDP, palladium prices are 30% lower than they were in March. It is anticipated that central banks would keep raising interest rates to keep inflation from soaring even when the economy is slowing. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. However, there is still a shortfall on the palladium market. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Crude Oil Price:  A Crucial Event Takes Place In The Week Ahead

Gold Futures Nearing 2 Year lows, Growing Recession Fears Dragging Down WTI Crude Oil, Cotton Futures Touching 4 Week Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 16.09.2022 17:34
Summary: Gold was expected to have its fourth losing week. WTI oil futures are still expected to decrease for the third consecutive week. Cotton futures were trading at levels not seen in more than four weeks. Strong US dollar driving gold down On Friday, the price of gold was hovering around $1,660 per ounce, close to two-year lows, and was expected to have its fourth losing week in five as a result of the strong dollar and the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate hike. Fears that the Fed may need to act even more aggressively to stop rising prices were confirmed by strong US retail sales and jobless claims statistics on Thursday and a surprise hot CPI reading earlier this week. In times of increased economic uncertainty, gold also lost its appeal as a safe-haven commodity when the World Bank and IMF cut growth projections for major economies and major US companies provided dovish advise on bleak economic prospects. Even though gold is regarded as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, its attraction is diminished by increased interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart WTI Crude Oil expected to decline for the third consecutive week As aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks and concerns about a global recession lowered demand expectations, WTI oil futures remained stable near $85 per barrel on Friday but were still expected to decrease for the third consecutive week. Energy prices were also under pressure due to a strong dollar, which increases the cost of goods for consumers using foreign currencies. In addition, the US Department of Energy reversed earlier claims that the US would replenish its emergency stocks should WTI prices fall below $80, removing the possibility of an oil price floor. This led to a sharp decline in oil prices on Thursday. China is considering allowing greater petroleum exports, which could indicate sluggish local demand on the supply side. The global oil market swung into a "substantial surplus" this quarter, according to Standard Chartered Plc, while Morgan Stanley and UBS Group AG lowered near-term predictions due to recession concerns, according to Bloomberg. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Cotton falling as economic outlook sours As traders considered the potential of decreased demand and constrained supplies, cotton futures were trading at levels not seen in more than four weeks. New limits on top consumers as a result of COVID-19 China raised further doubts about the state of the world economy as a result of rising interest rates. In its most recent report, the USDA reduced both the U.S. output estimate and the global production forecast for the crop year 2022–2023 by 3 million bales each. The health of the natural fiber crop is in jeopardy, and supply issues have arisen as a result of the hot, dry weather in important American agricultural regions. Crops in India, another significant producer, are still in danger due to unfavorable weather and pest infestations in key growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Aggressive Monetary Tightening Dampened Brent Crude Oil Forecasts, Silver Futures Falling, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.09.2022 16:50
Summary: Brent crude oil dropped for their third consecutive week. Higher-than-anticipated US inflation fueled concerns that the Fed might raise interest rates quicker. Brent crude oil faced 3 weeks of declines After three weeks of falls, Brent crude futures dropped below $91 per barrel on Monday as aggressive monetary tightening and recession worries dampened the forecast for demand before the European Union's embargo on Russian oil in December. Investors are getting ready for a flurry of interest rate announcements this week, led by the US Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to deliver another enormous rate hike to fight inflation. The top crude importer in the world had a wider opening when Chengdu, a city in China, removed a two-week lockdown. For the first time in three weeks, US energy companies added oil and natural gas rigs last week, signaling a future with higher output on the supply side. In Europe, as the country struggles with a deepening energy crisis that threatened to plunge the eurozone into a recession, Germany seized the local branch of a significant Russian oil refinery. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver prices trading below 4 weeks highs Silver futures were trading at $19.5 per ounce, remaining below the nearly four-week high of $19.8 reached on September 12 as higher-than-anticipated US inflation fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates more quickly than anticipated, leading investors to the US dollar rather than non-yielding bullion investments. Speculations that the US central bank would give a more aggressive 100bps increase in its funds rate next week were sparked by worries that price rise may not have peaked yet, boosting predictions that borrowing might go to as much as 4.3% in early 2023. The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated it will keep raising interest rates after its September meeting, which saw a 75bps increase. According to Bank of France president Villeroy, as policymakers work to reduce inflation from its current historically high levels, borrowing prices in the bloc may approach a neutral level by the end of the year. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that reflects the benchmark market for this commodity shows that corn has gained 78.71 USd/BU or 13.27% since the start of 2022. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Central Banks' Rates Outlook: Fed Treads Cautiously, ECB Prepares for Hike

NGAS Futures Rose Amidst Energy Crisis Concerns, Decreased Cotton Demand & Constrained Supplies, Gold Touching 2-year Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.09.2022 13:38
Summary: Natural gas futures rose, pulling away from a two-month low. Cotton futures were trading at levels not seen in the previous six weeks. Inflation elevated the dollar at the expense of other safe-haven assets. NGAS futures rose above from a 2-month low Amid ongoing worries about an energy crisis in Europe and almost endless demand, natural gas futures rose, pulling away from a two-month low touched in the previous session. Other EIA statistics indicated that utilities added 77 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ending September 9th, exceeding estimates of 73 billion. The Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland is scheduled to shut down for maintenance in October, which would halt shipments to other countries and boost local utility stockpiles. In the meanwhile, domestic supply is expected to climb. The incident furthers the abrupt delay in Freeport LNG's Quintana export plant restarting until November. NGAS Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Potential cotton demand decreased As traders considered the potential of decreased demand and constrained supplies, cotton futures were trading at levels not seen in the previous six weeks. New limits on top consumers as a result of COVID-19 China raised further doubts about the state of the world economy as a result of rising interest rates. In its most recent report, the USDA reduced both the U.S. output estimate and the global production forecast for the crop year 2022–2023 by 3 million bales each. The health of the natural fiber crop is in jeopardy, and supply issues have arisen as a result of the hot, dry weather in important American agricultural regions. Crops in India, another significant producer, are still in danger due to unfavorable weather and pest infestations in key growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold touching 2 year lows As investors stayed away from the market ahead of a crucial US Federal Reserve meeting, where it is anticipated that it will announce another significant interest rate hike to combat high inflation, gold prices stabilized around $1,675 an ounce on Tuesday, hovering close to the lowest levels in over two years. A third consecutive 75 basis point hike is presently priced into the markets due to last week's higher-than-expected inflation readings and strong economic indicators in the US, which reinforced expectations that the Fed will tighten further. This week, other significant central banks including the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are anticipated to do the same. Analysts disagree on whether the BOE will increase rates by 50 or 75 basis points. As the US' relative economic strength and the Fed's active stance against inflation elevated the dollar at the expense of other safe-haven assets, gold lost its appeal as a store of value in times of economic uncertainty. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
WTI Crude Oil Gains 3% On Wednesday, Palladium Touching 4-week Highs, Coffee Futures Falling

WTI Crude Oil Gains 3% On Wednesday, Palladium Touching 4-week Highs, Coffee Futures Falling

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.09.2022 10:12
Summary: Concerns around crude supplies drive prices. The shortfall on the palladium market persists. Likelihood of favorable weather in Brazil driving coffee futures down. WTI Crude oil demand threatened Wednesday saw a nearly 3% increase in WTI crude futures to over $86 a barrel due to worries about supply disruptions following President Vladimir Putin's announcement of a partial military mobilization in Russia. Gains occurred before the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a disproportionate amount, which the markets believe will stunt global economic development and reduce demand for oil. US oil inventories grew by approximately 1 million barrels last week, according to industry statistics, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose by about 3.2 million and 1.5 million barrels, respectively. Saudi Aramco and Crescent Petroleum executives, in separate remarks, identified underinvestment in the oil industry as a significant output barrier and the primary cause of the current global energy crisis. According to Reuters, OPEC+ is currently falling 3.58 million barrels per day, or around 3.5%, short of its goals. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Palladium touching 4-week highs As the dollar index deviated from 20-year highs, palladium futures increased their gains to $2,200 per ounce, the highest level in almost four weeks. Nevertheless, in spite of rising interest rates and slowing GDP, palladium prices are 30% lower than they were in March. It is anticipated that central banks would keep raising interest rates to keep inflation from soaring even when the economy is slowing. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. However, there is still a shortfall on the palladium market. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee touching 1-month lows The price of Arabica coffee futures on the ICE was near its lowest level since August 19th due to the weaker real and the likelihood of favorable weather in Brazil, the world's largest producer. According to Climatempo, heavy and frequent rains would fall in the Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais coffee-growing regions from the end of September to the beginning of October. The rain should increase soil moisture levels and encourage coffee tree flowering for the crop of Brazil coffee in 2023–2024. The Green Coffee Association also announced that U.S. green coffee stocks for August increased by 3.6% monthly and 5.2% annually, reaching a 2-year record of 6,450,086 million bags. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Platinum Futures Hold Above $900, Wheat trading at their highest level since early July, RBOB Gasoline Futures

Platinum Futures Hold Above $900, Wheat trading at their highest level since early July, RBOB Gasoline Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.09.2022 11:01
Summary: Platinum supply is expected to decrease by 8% this year. Chicago wheat futures trading at their highest level since early July. Gasoline's 98-days of recorded decreases comes to an end. Reduced supply and rising demand are supporting Platinum prices In September, platinum futures remained over the $900 per ounce threshold thanks to expectations for reduced supply and indications of rising demand. The World Platinum Investment Council predicted that the entire supply will decrease by 8% this year. Meanwhile, diminishing supplies from mines and recycling, along with China's high demand for catalytic converters, helped to boost prices. Nevertheless, platinum's recovery from the 26-month low of $830 reached on September 1 was constrained by expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve and the ensuing dollar gain. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat under strain as the conflict in the Ukraine persists Chicago wheat futures surged to trade at their highest level since early July as fresh geopolitical worries fueled worries that key producing centers might export less grain. The Donbass separatist areas and the seized portions of Kherson will vote this weekend on whether to join Russia, as part of the Kremlin's plans to formally annexe Ukrainian territory. The actions heightened concerns that the situation between Russia and Ukraine could worsen, leading Russia to revoke the safe trade corridor from previously negotiated Ukrainian Black Sea exports. The arrangement has already drawn harsh criticism from the Russian president, who claimed that Russia had been "cheated" and vowed to change the terms of the agreement, which would impede delivery to significant importers around the globe. Wheat Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline rises again After a 98-days of recorded decreases, retail gasoline prices in the US have seen their first increase, although a very small one, indicating that customers won't see much more relief at the pump. RBOB Gasoline Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Brent Crude Oil Stayed Quite Strong Yesterday Rising 0.7%, But In The Near Future Commodites May Be Endangered By (USD) US Dollar's Dominance And More

Brent Crude Futures On Track For Their Fourth Consecutive Losing Week, Gold Touches 2-year Lows, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.09.2022 12:15
Summary: Central banks around the world boosted interest rates this week. Gold prices continued to be pressured by a strong dollar and rising Treasury yields. Chicago Corn futures were maintaining their upward trend Brent Crude Oil heading for 4th weekly decline As central banks around the world boosted interest rates this week, fueling concerns about a global economic downturn and impacting on the forecast for energy consumption, Brent oil futures traded near $90 per barrel on Friday and were on track for their fourth consecutive losing week. Along with rate rises from the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and other institutions, the US Federal Reserve took the lead with its third consecutive 75 basis point rate increase. The Fed's proactive stance against inflation and demand for safe haven assets, which drove the dollar strongly higher, also dampened mood because it made oil priced in greenbacks more expensive for buyers using foreign currencies. Meanwhile, news that efforts to resurrect the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have failed has prevented oil prices from suffering more losses on Friday. Investors also kept an eye on Russia's limited military deployment, which might further disrupt supplies, the strengthening Chinese economy, and the potential for further output cutbacks from OPEC+. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Gold futures touching 2 year lows Gold prices continued to be pressured by a strong dollar and rising Treasury yields, which indicated forecasts for tighter monetary policy and weakening global growth. On Friday, gold prices dropped below $1,660 an ounce, the lowest in over two years. With its third consecutive 75 basis point rate increase to combat inflation, the US Federal Reserve led a flurry of central banks this week in raising interest rates. With Isabel Schnabel, an ECB board member, stating on Thursday that strong inflationary pressures in the euro zone are likely to be more persistent than anticipated, the European Central Bank is also expected to raise rates further. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding bullion by increasing the opportunity cost. As the US' relative economic strength and the Fed's active stance against inflation elevated the dollar at the expense of other safe-haven assets, gold also lost its luster as a store of wealth in times of economic uncertainty. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn shortage is expected Chicago Corn futures were maintaining their upward trend since falling to an eight-month low in July, and diverging from the oil market as concerns about a shortage of corn outweighed expectations of a decline in demand. Expectations for the current crop were limited by bad weather in the major growing regions of the Americas. In the US, WASDE forecasts that output will amount to 13.9 billion bushels in the upcoming marketing year, down 415 million from earlier projections due to a fall in yields and harvesting area. Additionally, ending stocks and global production were revised downward. In the US, summer droughts caused havoc on domestic maize crops during the current marketing year, resulting in yields that were the lowest since the drought of 2012. Additionally, the impacts of La Nina in South America significantly harmed the health of the harvests, putting additional strain on supply. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Analysis Of Crude Oil Futures, WTI Prices Recorded A Slight Decline

Brent Crude Oil Supported By Supply Disruptions, Silver Futures, Corn Futures Rising Amid Supply Concerns

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.09.2022 20:16
Summary: Brent Crude rose from an 8-month low. Silver futures trading close to 2 year lows. Corn futures have been climbing steadily. Brent Crude oil rose from 8-month low Brent crude prices rose from an eight-month low of $84.6 a barrel, buoyed by worries about potential supply disruptions, particularly those from Russia given the impending EU ban on its fuel, and rumors that OPEC might step up market intervention. Early this month, OPEC and its oil-producing allies—including Russia—announced a modest supply reduction and promised to take further measures if the market volatility persisted. However, concerns are growing that a sudden tightening from the world's main central banks might halt global economic development and reduce energy demand. Additionally, a higher dollar has been pressuring energy markets, raising the cost of commodities with dollar prices for buyers using other currencies. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver trading near 2-year low In late September, silver futures were trading at $18.6 per ounce, close to the over two-year low of $17.9 reached earlier in the month as the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening momentum drove investors away from bullion investments and into the interest-bearing US dollar. The Fed increased the rate on its funds by 75 basis points for the third time in a row in addition to rate increases by other significant central banks, and forecast that borrowing may reach as high as 4.6% by March 2023. A worldwide economic slowdown is also impacting jewelry sales as well as consumer spending in China and India, two of the world's largest consumers of gadgets and autos. Additionally, while China and India take advantage of cheap oil and gas from Russia and Europe is moving back to coal as an energy option, progress toward green technology, such as the development of solar panels, has suffered a setback. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn futures have been climbing steady Since reaching an eight-month low in July, corn futures have been climbing steadily, breaking from their association with oil as worries about a lack of supply overcame expectations of a decline in demand. Expectations for the current crop were limited by bad weather in the major growing regions of the Americas. In the US, WASDE forecasts that output will amount to 13.9 billion bushels in the upcoming marketing year, down 415 million from earlier projections due to a fall in yields and harvesting area. Additionally, ending stocks and global production were revised downward. In the US, summer droughts caused havoc on domestic maize crops during the current marketing year, resulting in yields that were the lowest since the drought of 2012. Additionally, the impacts of La Nina in South America significantly harmed the health of the harvests, putting additional strain on supply. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Japan's Prime Minister Tested Covid Positive. Gazprom Confirmed Gas Shipment Would Be Stopped!

NGAS Touching 2-month Lows, Cotton Futures Down, Gold Sitting At Lowest Level In 2.5 Years

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.09.2022 10:27
Summary: Natural gas futures are still up around 100% for the year. Cotton futures were trading at levels last seen in July 2021. The price of gold is still close to its lowest levels in 2.5 years. Larger-than-expected storage build driving NGAS prices down Under pressure from a larger-than-expected storage build, natural gas futures reached a bottom below a level not seen in two months. According to the most recent EIA data, US utilities put 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas underground storage, significantly more than the median estimate of 93 bcf. Due to high domestic output levels and prospects for better weather through early October, prices were already under pressure. Expectations that demand would decrease even further in October when the Cove Point liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Maryland shuts down for maintenance added to the pessimistic picture. Due to the strong demand for US LNG exports and the rising prices of natural gas in Europe and Asia, natural gas futures are still up around 100% for the year. NGAS Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures touching lows not seen since July 2021 As traders assessed the potential of larger supplies and lower demand due to quicker rate hikes and economic uncertainty, cotton futures were trading at levels last seen in July 2021. Regarding the supply, the USDA's most recent report showed that the crop of US cotton increased from 12.48 million acres in August to 13.79 million acres in September, or over 19% more than the 11.22 million acres planted in 2021. 375 lakh bales are anticipated to be produced in India, another major producer, during the season 2022–23, assuming that the weather is cooperative through October. Crops are still in danger because of unfavorable weather and pest infestations in the main growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold futures Tuesday saw a minor recovery in gold prices from a recent low as the continuous dollar advance paused, moving closer to $1,630 an ounce. On predictions that the US Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy even more in order to combat rising inflation, the price of yellow metal is still close to its lowest levels in 2.5 years. On Monday, a number of Fed members reaffirmed their commitment to the fight against inflation, despite the possibility of some negative economic consequences and additional market instability. Investors also considered a study from the OECD, which revised its prediction for global economic growth from 2.8% to 2.2% in 2023, citing aggressive monetary tightening in leading nations and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war. Despite the fact that storing non-yielding gold bullion is generally regarded as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of doing so, and investors continue to choose the dollar as a safe haven asset. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Oil trades around USD 100, gold edges higher

WTI Crude Oil Touching January Lows, Palladium Futures Reaching Highest Level In 4-weeks, Coffee Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.09.2022 11:45
Summary: Likelihood of a worldwide recession that might harm energy consumption. Palladium prices are 30% lower than they were in March. The drawback is that continued upward momentum has been constrained by a generally stronger dollar. WTI Crude Oil touching January lows On Wednesday, WTI crude futures declined toward $77 per barrel, returning to their lowest levels since early January, as worries that OPEC+ may further restrict supply were countered by a strengthening currency and increasing US petroleum inventories. After a White House official ruled out a currency deal among major nations to reduce the dollar, the dollar index soared to a fresh 20-year high. Prior to the release of official figures later on Wednesday, industry data revealed that the US crude stockpiles increased by over 4 million barrels last week. With aggressive monetary tightening increasing the likelihood of a worldwide recession that might harm energy consumption, oil prices have been under intense selling pressure since June and are expected to report their first quarterly loss in more than two years. While this was going on, dramatic drops in oil prices fueled rumors that OPEC+ might reduce output to stop the decline. Moscow reportedly urged the cartel to reduce production by approximately 1 million barrels per day. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Palladium touching 4-week highs As the dollar index deviated from 20-year highs, palladium futures increased their gains to $2,200 per ounce, the highest level in almost four weeks. Nevertheless, in spite of rising interest rates and slowing GDP, palladium prices are 30% lower than they were in March. It is anticipated that central banks would keep raising interest rates to keep inflation from soaring even when the economy is slowing. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. However, there is still a shortfall on the palladium market. Palladium Futures Price Chart Coffee futures Due to limited supply, Arabica coffee futures on ICE increased their gains from a one-month low reached on September 16th. While Brazilian crop agency Conab reduced its 2022 arabica coffee production estimate from May's projection of 35.71 million bags to 32.41 million 60kg bags, as adverse weather curbed coffee yields, posing risks for next year's production, new data showed ICE-certified arabica stocks fell to a fresh 23-year low of 460,387 bags. At the same time, exports of coffee from Colombia, the second-largest producer of arabica beans in the world, decreased 7% during the first seven months of the year and plunged 21% year over year in August. The drawback is that continued upward momentum has been constrained by a generally stronger dollar. Coffee Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Oil Is An Indicator Of The Health Of The Global Economy

Platinum Weighed Down By A Strong US Dollar, Wheat Supported By Supply Concerns, RBOB Gasoline On The Rise Again

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.09.2022 15:26
Summary: 2022 has seen platinum prices drop 10.71%. Wheat futures close to 3-month highs. RBOB Gasoline rises after 100 days of declines. Platinum futures under pressure from strong US Dollar Since the start of 2022, platinum prices have dropped by 103.12 USD/t oz., or 10.71%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium were all affected negatively by the surging US dollar (DXY), which rose to new 20-year highs on Wednesday morning. As demand from the Chinese automobile industry remained poor and is now being further pushed by a rising dollar, platinum fell 1.1% to $838 per troy ounce (DXY). Additionally down 1.4% to $2,056 per troy ounce was palladium. Platinum Jan ‘23 Futures Price Chart Concerns around a wheat shortage driving prices As fresh escalation threats about the Russian invasion of Ukraine stoked concerns about a shortage, Chicago wheat futures increased and came close to reaching the nearly three-month high from late September. Shortly before holding referendums to join Russia in four regions of Ukraine, President Putin ordered Russia's first military mobilization since World War II. Concerns were raised about Moscow's ability to halt the UN-negotiated safe trade route from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, which would eliminate the newly resumed supply from one of the world's largest wheat exporters and producers. News that increased export levies from the Kremlin would restrict sales of the nation's record harvest this marketing year contributed to further price increases. Chicago Dec ‘22 Wheat Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline futures In response to a hurricane barreling into Florida, President Joe Biden issued a warning to oil corporations not to raise gasoline prices. This is the second time this week that he has expressed concern over rising pump costs. Regular gasoline is becoming more expensive on average in the United States. After falling for nearly 100 consecutive days throughout the summer driving season, the price has now started to rise once more. RBOB Gasoline Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com, capital.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Brent Crude Oil Prices Drop For 4th Consecutive Month, Silver Futures, Corn Rising To Start The Week

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.10.2022 13:52
Summary: Oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in September. A global economic downturn is also affecting bullion investments. Corn futures rise at the start of the week. Brent Crude Oil weighed down by economic recession concerns In response to growing rumors that OPEC+ would consider reducing output by up to 1 million barrels per day at a meeting later this week to support prices, Brent oil futures jumped more than 4% near $89 per barrel on Monday. After lowering output by 100,000 bpd in August to address macroeconomic headwinds, this action will represent the cartel's second consecutive monthly drop. As aggressive monetary tightening by major national economies fuelled concerns about a worldwide economic downturn and reduced energy demand, oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in September. Oil prices were also affected by the Covid-related uncertainty in China, the world's largest crude importer, and a strong dollar that increases the cost of goods with US dollar prices for foreign customers. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Hawkish Fed driving investors away from Silver The price of silver in futures contracts was $19.30 per ounce, falling further from the one-month high of $19.8 reached in mid-September as renewed dollar demand and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy of low interest rates for an extended period of time drove investors away from bullion. The Fed predicted that borrowing costs might increase to as much as 4.6% by March 2023 and increased its fund rate by 75 basis points for the third time in a row. With swaps pricing bets that its deposit rate will grow to 3% by May 2023, the ECB is likewise anticipated to rapidly raise its interest rates. A global economic downturn is also affecting bullion investments, as well as jewelry sales from China and India, the world's two largest consumers of technology and autos. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn prices rise to start the week The price of corn is rising to start the week. Close observation of the Ukraine-Russian conflict's escalation is necessary. Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that reflects the benchmark market for this commodity shows that corn has grown 92.12 USd/BU or 15.53% since the start of 2022. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com, barchart.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

NGAS Hovering Around 12-week Lows, Cotton Touching 15-month Lows, Gold Futures Weighed Down By Strong US Dollar

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.10.2022 12:59
Summary: NGAS prices in the US reached their highest summer levels since 2008. Economic uncertainty around cotton demand persists. Gold futures amidst hawkish central banks. NGAS supply concerns persist Pressure from record domestic supply levels and waning weather-driven demand as the weather turned cooler kept US natural gas contracts around a 12-week low. In the first eight months of 2022, natural gas output in the US is anticipated to have increased by around 4% from a year earlier, hitting a record high of 101 Bcf/d in late September. Additionally, the protracted outage at the Texas Freeport LNG export facility has already decreased US natural gas use for months, leaving more gas for US utilities to add to reserves in preparation for the next winter. A series of heat waves across the US raised the need for cooling at a time when there was an increase in demand for US LNG exports due to worries about shortages in Europe. At the same time, natural gas prices in the US reached their highest summer levels since 2008. NGAS Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton weighed down by demand concerns Trading in cotton futures was below a level not seen since July 2021 as traders considered the likelihood of more supply and less demand as a result of quicker rate hikes and economic uncertainty. Regarding the supply, the USDA's most recent report showed that the crop of US cotton increased from 12.48 million acres in August to 13.79 million acres in September, or over 19% more than the 11.22 million acres planted in 2021. 375 lakh bales are anticipated to be produced in India, another major producer, during the season 2022–23, assuming that the weather is cooperative through October. Crops are still in danger because of unfavorable weather and pest infestations in the main growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold weighed down by strong US Dollar After breaching the crucial $1,700 barrier earlier in the session, gold prices retreated toward $1,690 an ounce on Tuesday, constrained by a strong dollar and amid anticipation that the US Federal Reserve will move through with its aggressive plan to combat high inflation. John Williams, president of the New York Fed Bank, stated on Monday that the US still has "major ways to go" in terms of monetary tightening because interest rates have not yet reached levels that are constrictive for economic growth. The European Central Bank is also anticipated to announce another significant rate increase, as the euro zone's inflation rate surpassed expectations in September to reach a new record high of 10%. The metal, meanwhile, rose more than 2% on Monday to its best levels in almost three weeks as Treasury yields dropped precipitously and the dollar suffered from weaker-than-expected US manufacturing data, which fueled hopes that the US central bank could pause the tempo of rate increases. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Platinum Futures, Wheat Trading At 3-month Highs, OPEC+ Cuts Gasoline Output By 2million Barrels Per Day

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.10.2022 13:10
Summary: After falling for around 100 days, gasoline prices in the US are now rising. Chicago wheat futures were trading, close to the highest price since the end of June. Platinum futures rose 4.25% during 2022. Platinum futures According to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity, platinum has dropped 40.90 USD/t oz. or 4.25% since the start of 2022. Platinum Jan ‘23 Futures Price Chart Wheat supply shortages expected In October, Chicago wheat futures were trading, close to the highest price since the end of June due to worries about a shortage of supply. Concerns that Russia would terminate the secure trade route from Ukrainian Black Sea ports that was agreed to in a deal mediated by the UN arose after Russia invaded Ukrainian land and threatened to use nuclear force. The 2022 wheat harvest was also at its second-smallest level in 20 years due to the dry and hot weather in the US. In its annual Small Grains Summary report, the USDA estimated the US wheat harvest at 1.650 billion bushels, which was below than market expectations of 1.778 billion bushels and predictions from August of 1.783 billion bushels. Wheat Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Rising Gasoline prices threaten to harm consumers further After falling for around 100 days, gasoline prices in the US are now rising, posing a fresh threat to consumers who have already been suffering from widespread inflation for more than a year. A 14-day stretch of rising gas prices is the result of upkeep at fuel production facilities, increased demand, and limited fuel supply. According to OPIS, an energy-data company that is a division of Dow Jones & Co., the publisher of The Wall Street Journal, a gallon of normal cost around $3.831 on Wednesday. Analysts predict that the agreement to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia on Wednesday will result in a further increase in oil prices. The White House announced that it would look at ways to protect American consumers, calling the action unwise. Analysts anticipate that most drivers won't have to deal with $5 gas as they did in June, in part because wintertime demand is usually lower. Although refiners convert to producing winter-grade fuel blended with butane at this time of year, which has reduced production costs and is therefore more affordable, prices are still unusually high, according to Richard Joswick, head of global oil analytics at S&P Global Platts. RBOB Gasoline Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com, wsj.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

OPEC+ To Reduce Production By 2 Million Barrels Per Day, Gold Futures Up 3% This Week, Cotton Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.10.2022 12:49
Summary: Brent Crude Oil expected to rise by 11% this week. Gold prices could come under pressure thanks to US Non-farm payroll data. Investors considered the likelihood of more supply and less demand of cotton. Brent Crude Oil expected to rise by 11% this week As OPEC+ agreed to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day, or about 2% of the world's supply, starting in November, the price of Brent crude futures held above $94 per barrel on Friday and was expected to rise by about 11% this week. This decision threatens to further tighten supply ahead of the winter season. Although Saudi Arabia's oil minister said the actual reduction will likely be closer to 1 to 1.1 million barrels because several members are already pumping below targets, that would still represent the largest output decrease since the outbreak began. On Thursday, US President Joe Biden expressed disappointment with the OPEC+ decision and stated that the US was looking for measures to prevent prices from rising. Following the OPEC+ decision, Goldman Sachs considerably increased its oil price projection, predicting that Brent prices will reach $104 per barrel this year and $110 per barrel in 2023. Russia once more issued a warning this week that it won't sell oil to nations who back the US-led effort to set a price restriction on Russian oil, adding to supply fears. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Gold prices risen by 3% this week In the lead-up to the monthly US jobs data that could provide new insights on the Federal Reserve's rate hike path, caution predominated in the market, and gold prices remained muted around $1,710 an ounce on Friday. They have been trading in a range for the past three sessions. The nonfarm payrolls report, which is due later on Friday, is anticipated to indicate that the US economy generated 250,000 jobs in September. If the number is higher than anticipated, rate hike bets will increase and gold prices would be further pressured. The metal has fluctuated throughout the week as opinions on US monetary policy have changed; initially, weak US data drove bullion higher on expectations for a slower pace of tightening, but by the end of the week, pressure from strong US data and hawkish comments from US policymakers had put the metal under pressure. Gold prices, however, have increased by about 3% so far this week and were on track to post their largest weekly gains since March. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton supply expected to increase Trading in cotton futures was below 90 USd/Lbs, a level not seen since July 2021, as investors considered the likelihood of more supply and less demand as a result of accelerated rate hikes and a deteriorating economy. Regarding the supply, the USDA's most recent report showed that the crop of US cotton increased from 12.48 million acres in August to 13.79 million acres in September, or over 19% more than the 11.22 million acres planted in 2021. 375 lakh bales are anticipated to be produced in India, another major producer, during the season 2022–23, assuming that the weather is cooperative through October. Crops are still in danger because of unfavorable weather and pest infestations in the main growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Oil Is An Indicator Of The Health Of The Global Economy

Silver Futures Prices Falling, Brent Crude Supplies Expected To Be Tight, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.10.2022 13:25
Summary: Brent crude oil rising as fears around tight supplies continue. Hawkish Fed driving bullion prices down. Corn futures prices raised by 17.25% in 2022. Brent Crude oil faces a weaker demand outlook On Monday, traders balanced a major output cut by OPEC+ that promises to further tighten supply ahead of winter against a weaker demand outlook resulting from increasingly tighter monetary circumstances. Brent crude futures slipped toward $97 per barrel. Fears that the Federal Reserve may boost borrowing costs to onerous levels increased as a result of the US job market's continued tightness and the country's officials' steadfast hawkish posture, which also fueled worries about the demand and the global economy. The global oil benchmark also increased by around 15% last week as OPEC+ decided to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day, or roughly 2% of the world's supply, starting in November. This would be the largest output reduction since the pandemic's inception. Russia's threat that it won't sell oil to nations who support the US-led effort to impose a price restriction on Russian oil was reinforced last week, adding to supply fears. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart   Silver drops as hawkish fed continues After temporarily reaching a three-month high of $21, spot silver traded around $20 per ounce in October as expectations that the Fed will maintain its hawkish monetary policy stance returned, pushing up the dollar and bond yields. In the meantime, the amount of silver kept in the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) vaults has steadily decreased over the past nine months, reaching a record-low level of 28,506 tonnes valued at $16.4 billion, or roughly 950,208 silver bars. According to the LBMA, this is the least amount of silver stored in vaults since reporting began in July 2016. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn futures Since the start of 2022, corn prices have climbed by 102.31 USd/BU, or 17.25%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

NGAS Inventories Strong, Cotton Futures, Gold Futures Decline For 5th Straight Session

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.10.2022 11:14
Summary: US NGAS futures trading low for the past 10 sessions. Golds price decline fueled by a strengthening USD and rising Treasury yields. Cotton crops are in danger due to unfavorable weather and pest infestations. NGAS trading close to 3-month lows For the tenth session running, US natural gas futures have traded below $7/MMBtu, close to the 3-month low of $6.3/MMBtu reached on October 3, and far below the 14-year high of $9.65/MMBtu reached on August 22. This is because production is still at record highs and utilities are able to add more gas to storage due to milder than usual weather. The US utilities added 129 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage in the week ending September 30th, exceeding market forecasts of a 113 bcf build, according to the EIA, which recorded the highest weekly gains in domestic inventories ever. According to Refinitiv, average gas production in the Lower 48 US states increased to a record 100.1 bcfd so far in October from a previous high of 99.4 bcfd in September. Reduced LNG shipments and a decline in demand brought on by Hurricane Ian's power outages also had an impact on gas prices. NGAS Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold declining amidst predictions of aggressive Fed Tuesday's decline in gold prices, which was the fifth straight session, was fueled by a strengthening dollar and rising Treasury yields amid predictions that the US Federal Reserve will continue with its aggressive tightening policies. Such a notion was reinforced by a better-than-expected US jobs report on Friday, and markets now anticipate US inflation data on Thursday, FOMC minutes on Wednesday, and other Fed officials' appearances this week for additional cues. On the other hand, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard stated on Monday that the Fed will be guided by incoming data as the full impact of prior rate rises become clear. She also emphasized the necessity for tight monetary policy to lower inflation. The IMF and World Bank warned of a rising possibility of a worldwide recession, as advanced economies stagnate and persistent inflation increases pressure on major central banks to hike interest rates further. This warning left markets on edge. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton trading low As traders assessed the possibilities of larger supplies and lower demand due to quicker rate hikes and economic uncertainties, cotton futures traded below, a level not seen since July 2021. Regarding the supply, the USDA's most recent report showed that the crop of US cotton increased from 12.48 million acres in August to 13.79 million acres in September, or over 19% more than the 11.22 million acres planted in 2021. 375 lakh bales are anticipated to be produced in India, another major producer, during the season 2022–23, assuming that the weather is cooperative through October. Crops are still in danger because of unfavorable weather and pest infestations in the main growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Crude Oil Price: How Big Could The OPEC+ Supply Cut?

WTI Crude Oil Futures Falling As Demand Forecasts Look Grim, Palladium Futures, Coffee Futures Declining

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.10.2022 09:10
Summary: WTI Crude oil dropped around 6% as demand forecasts deteriorated. Palladium futures up almost 13% in 2022. Coffee futures touching 6 week lows. WTI Crude Oil inventories increased WTI crude futures traded near $87 per barrel on Thursday, having dropped about 6% in the previous three days as a result of a deteriorating demand forecast and a significant increase in US crude inventories. On Wednesday, OPEC reduced its projections for the growth of the world's oil demand by 460,000 and 360,000 barrels per day, respectively. They cited high inflation, stagnant development in rich economies, and China's Covid lockdowns as reasons. The US Energy Department also reduced its projections for US and global consumption, with US consumption projected to climb by just 0.9% from a previous forecast of 1.7% in 2023 and by just 1.5% from a previous projection of 2%. US crude stockpiles rose by more over 7 million barrels last week, according to an industry report. Oil prices were also affected by the US Federal Reserve's hawkish minutes, in which the central bank vowed to retain interest rates at their current levels until inflation starts to decline. WTI Crude Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium futures Since the start of 2022, the price of palladium has climbed by 242.31 USD/t oz., or 12.81%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee Futures touching 6 week lows As showers in Brazil's coffee belt may improve the crop forecast, Arabica coffee futures on ICE extended losses toward $2.15 per pound, approaching levels not seen in more than six weeks. Rainfall in Minas Gerais, which makes up around 30% of Brazil's arabica crop, is predicted to bring much-needed moisture and enhance prospects for the crop in the top producer in the world the following year. The most recent statistics revealed that on October 3rd, ICE-certified arabica stocks hit a new 23-year low of 417,306 bags. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Oil trades around USD 100, gold edges higher

Silver Futures Weighed Down By Hawkish Fed, Brent Crude Oil Demand Outlook Weakened, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.10.2022 12:26
Summary: Demand for silver continues to weaken. Increasing macro headwinds have investors concerned about a deteriorating outlook for demand. Silver Futures dampened by hawkish fed Spot silver prices declined to below $19.3 an ounce in the second week of October, retreating significantly from the three-month high of $21.1 reached on October 4th and tracking the decline in US Treasury notes as expectations of an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve continue to dampen demand for non-interest-bearing bullion investments. After the stronger-than-expected September jobs data and comments from Fed policymakers emphasizing the need to lower inflation, hopes that the US central bank could slow the pace of upcoming rate hikes were dashed. Members of the ECB board have also maintained that borrowing prices must be restricted since markets are currently underestimating inflation, which might last until 2025. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude Oil futures As investors balanced a weaker prognosis for the global economy against tighter supply, Brent crude futures were trading around the $91 per barrel mark. Increasing macro headwinds, such as high inflation, tighter financial conditions, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, have investors concerned about a deteriorating outlook for demand. Any upward movement has also been constrained by the US Federal Reserve's active tightening drive against inflationary excess, a stronger dollar, and China's restrictions brought on by the Coronavirus. As OPEC and its allies, including Russia, decided to further reduce output before the European Union oil embargo, rising concerns about tighter global supplies acted as a floor beneath prices. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Corn Futures In the second week of October, Chicago corn futures remained close to the $6.9 per bushel level after the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) revealed reducing worldwide stockpiles. The USDA also predicted decreased exports and a tighter supply within the country. Iran, Japan, and Vietnam had their import predictions cut, while the EU and the US had theirs lifted. In other developments, it has been claimed that China is considering beginning to purchase corn from Brazil, bypassing US grain growers. Investors are concerned about the world's food supply this winter due to the ongoing unpredictability surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian War. The price of corn is still close to the three-month high ($7.0 per bushel) set on October 10. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Central Banks' Rates Outlook: Fed Treads Cautiously, ECB Prepares for Hike

NGAS Futures Touch Lowest Level In 3 Months, Cotton Touching April Lows, US Dollar Retracts - Gold Supported

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 18.10.2022 11:31
Summary: Natural gas futures fell by about 7% on Monday. UK's decision to rescind nearly all of its proposed tax cuts increased risk appetite. Persistent demand worries weighing on cotton. NGAS futures fall In response to record domestic production levels and weaker weather-driven demand, US natural gas futures fell by about 7% on Monday, to the lowest in three months. According to the most recent EIA data, US utilities added 125 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage last week, which is significantly more than typical and more than the market anticipated at 123 bcf. Due to the moderate weather and increased wind power, there were gains above 100 bcf for the fourth week in a row. According to Refinitiv, average gas production in the Lower 48 US states increased to a record 99.9 bcfd so far in October from a previous high of 99.4 bcfd in September. Reduced LNG shipments and a decline in demand brought on by Hurricane Ian's power outages also had an impact on gas prices. NGAS Futures Price Chart Gold futures stabilized On Tuesday, the price of gold stabilized around $1,650 an ounce, halting a recent decline as the dollar lost some gain following the UK's decision to rescind nearly all of its proposed tax cuts, which increased risk appetite in the market. The US Federal Reserve is expected to tighten more in order to reduce inflation, which has continued to put pressure on the price of metal. Recent data revealed that US year-ahead inflation expectations rose, supporting the argument for more rate increases combined with a hot inflation report from September. Despite ongoing inflationary pressures and growing chances of a worldwide recession, gold also continued to perform poorly as a safe-haven asset as investors fled to the dollar due to rising US interest rates. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton touching April 2021 lows Cotton futures fell to a level last seen in April 2021 due to persistent demand worries, while rising interest rates strengthened the dollar and reduced demand for commodities priced in US dollars. On the supply side, however, an optimistic report from the US Department of Agriculture provided some support for the fiber. In light of the ongoing uncertainty on the extent to which unfavorable weather conditions, such as drought and heavy rain, may reduce output in top producer Texas and other states for the 2022–2023 season, the USDA has lowered its outlook for domestic supplies. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
The Commodities: The EU Is Looking At A Price Cap Level Of Around US$60/bbl

WTI Crude Oil Recover Slightly From 2-week Lows, Palladium Futures Hitting 2-week Lows, Coffee Futures Hit 1-year Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.10.2022 14:32
Summary: Sanctions by the EU against Russian crude threatened to jeopardize the US's planned release of emergency oil stocks. Dollar index climbed back toward 20-year highs following a strong CPI reading. A stronger dollar and an improving crop forecast causing coffee futures to drop. WTI Crude Oil edged above 2 week lows As the latest sanctions by the European Union against Russian crude threatened to jeopardize the US's planned release of emergency oil stocks, WTI crude futures edged above $84 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering from two-week lows. Tankers transporting Russian crude beyond a predetermined price level would be subject to shipping restrictions from the EU, obliging shipowners to abide by the Group of Seven agreement to cap the price of Russian oil. In the meantime, it has been claimed that the US will release 15 million barrels of oil from its emergency supplies in order to lower the high cost of gasoline this winter. Following a White House charge that Saudi Arabia forced other countries to endorse the plan, Malaysia defended an OPEC+ decision to restrict oil production. It said the group “collectively took into consideration factors that include market fundamentals, particularly to address uncertainties in the global oil supply and demand situation.” WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Palladium falls to lowest price in 2-weeks Palladium futures dropped to $2,070 per ounce, the lowest price in more than two weeks, as the dollar index climbed back toward 20-year highs following a strong CPI reading, which hit commodities. Despite rising interest rates and slower GDP, palladium prices are 30% lower than they were in March. It is anticipated that central banks would keep raising interest rates to keep inflation from soaring even when the economy is slowing. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. However, there is still a shortfall on the palladium market. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee extended losses to 1 year lows A stronger dollar and an improving crop forecast in top producer Brazil as a result of reports of ample rain that may encourage blooming for next year's coffee crop caused Arabica coffee futures on ICE to extend losses, levels not seen in almost a year. The most recent statistics revealed that on October 13th, ICE-certified arabica stocks reached a new 23-year low of 408,419 bags. Additionally, the world's largest consumer of coffee, Europe, has expressed concerns about the demand due to continued economic issues, according to investment bank Itau BBA. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Platinum Futures, RBOB Gasoline Prices Remain Stubbornly High, Wheat Futures Touch 1-month Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.10.2022 12:53
Summary: Platinum futures prices down 7.45% in 2022. 3rd week of October saw 1-month lows for Wheat. RBOB Gasoline prices are higher than it was for at least nine of the previous election cycles. Platinum futures dropped in 2022 Since the start of 2022, platinum prices have dropped by 71.71 USD/t oz., or 7.45%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Platinum Jan ‘23 Futures Price Chart Wheat facing supply shortages Chicago wheat futures dropped in the third week of October, lingering at levels not seen in a month, as the prospect of a supply shortage was allayed by progress in negotiations for grain trading agreements with the Ukraine. According to UN spokesman Dujarric, ongoing negotiations with Moscow over the expansion of the current agreement establishing a trade corridor for Black Sea ports have been positive and productive. This raises hopes that major exporter Ukraine will be able to ship wheat and free up much-needed silo storage space for the current harvest. According to the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), wheat exports will drop to a 50-year low as a result of low water levels along the Mississippi River slowing the shipments, and US domestic stocks have accumulated more than anticipated. Wheat Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline remain stubbornly high Just three weeks out from the midterm elections, US pump prices are still stubbornly high, and the states suffering the most are those that will decide which party will control Congress. The most prominent inflation warning in America is the pump price, which is displayed on street corners around the nation. According to AAA data, the price of petrol was $3.88 per gallon during the first half of October, which is higher than it was for at least nine of the previous election cycles. RBOB Gasoline Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Solid Wage Growth in Poland Signals Improving Labor Market Conditions

UK Retail Sales Data Missed Market Expectations, Coming In Hotter Than Expected

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.10.2022 08:41
Summary: U.K Retails data came in hotter than expected. Consumer spending has largely decreased in the U.K. UK Retail Sales Data UK Retail Sales Data heavily missed market expectations on Friday, with YoY data coming in at -6.9% and market expectations that were originally set at -5.0%, and MoM data also missing market expectations, coming in at -1.4% with expectations originally set at -0.5%. The data from both YoY & MoM missed market expectations by a long way, indicating that the U.K economy had deteriorated throughout September more than the markets had expected. Retail Sales track changes in the total amount of retail sales that have been adjusted for inflation. It is the most important gauge of consumer spending, which dominates all other forms of economic activity. The lower than expected readings could be interpreted as bearish or negative, as consumers in the U.K heavily slowdown the spending as the looming recession becomes more real. Effect on the market It could be said that the retail sales help investors to gauge the health of an economy and the existence of inflationary pressures. Consumer spending makes up a large part of the U.Ks GDP, the figures that largely missed market expectations could be interpreted as the U.K economy heading into a recession. The market could expect that the Bank of England (BoE) will continue on their interest rate hiking cycle, and perhaps we could see the BoE turn even more hawkish in their fight against rising inflation. The initial market reaction for the GBP/USD currency pair saw the GBP weaken against the USD, the same goes for the EUR/GBP currency pair, which saw the EUR strengthen against the GBP initially. The FTSE 100 is up as of the release of the Retail Sales Data. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, ft.com
The Commodities Feed: First US crude draw this year

Gold’s Rebound In The Wake Of Treasury Note Recovery, WTI Crude Oil Weighed Down By Potential Global Recession, Wheat Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.10.2022 19:46
Summary: Gold rebounded following the recovery for Treasury notes. WTI crude declines as recession potential increases. Wheat drops amidst prospects of positive negotiations between Russia & The Ukraine. Gold’s price rebound As hitting a three-week low of $1,620 earlier in the session, gold prices rebounded over $1,640 an ounce on Friday, following the recovery for Treasury notes after the dollar retreated from recent highs. The Wall Street Journal said that some Federal Reserve members were unsure about whether following through on the aggressively hawkish stance would result in overtightening, which increased demand for bullion. At its upcoming meeting in November, the US central bank is anticipated to increase its funds rate by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row, intensifying its fight against rising inflation. The spike in the DXY increased the potential cost of storing non-interest-bearing metal, but gold prices are still not far from the 18-month low of $1,613 set on September 28. Prices for gold are predicted to end the week unchanged. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart WTI Crude Oil weighed down by global recession potential WTI oil futures hit a low at $83 per barrel and are now headed for a weekly decline of over 1% as persistent concerns about a potential global recession-driven demand fall are offset by expectations for increased Chinese demand and OPEC+ supply cutbacks. Investors are becoming more concerned about a worsening economic forecast in the face of escalating macro challenges, such as high inflation and tighter financial conditions. Expectations of reducing coronavirus-induced limitations and an uptick in economic activity in top importer China put a floor under prices. Meanwhile, amid growing rumors that the oil cartel could further interfere in markets to support prices, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day in November, the largest reduction since the start of the crisis. Concerns about a shortage of supplies were also heightened by a pending ban on Russian crude by the European Union. WTI Crude Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat drops amidst prospects of positive negotiations between Russia & The Ukraine In the third week of October, Chicago wheat futures dropped and remained stable month, as success in negotiations for grain trade agreements with Ukraine allayed worries about a supply shortage. According to UN spokesman Dujarric, ongoing negotiations with Moscow over the expansion of the current agreement establishing a trade corridor for Black Sea ports have been positive and productive. This raises hopes that major exporter Ukraine will be able to ship wheat and free up much-needed silo storage space for the current harvest. According to the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), wheat exports will drop to a 50-year low as a result of low water levels along the Mississippi River slowing the shipments, and US domestic stocks have accumulated more than anticipated. Wheat Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
The Special Edition Of The Saxo Market Call Podcast: The Wild Year Of 2022 For Commodities And What May Be In Store In 2023

Silver Rising Amidst Expectations Of A Dovish Fed, Recession Fears Keeping Brent Crude Oil Low, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.10.2022 15:00
Summary: Fed members were growing anxious around rate hikes continuing at the current rate. Investors are becoming more concerned about a worsening economic forecast. Corn has gained 14.98% in 2022. Silver futures rising The price of spot silver was $19.2 per ounce, which is still near to the two-week high of $19.4 per ounce reached on October 21 amid expectations that the Federal Reserve would pause in raising interest rates. According to reports, Fed members were growing more anxious that, should rate hikes continue at the current rate, the central bank might be unduly aggressive, halting the dollar's rally and boosting demand for gold. However, the central bank is anticipated to increase its funds rate by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row next week. Even though bullion investments are frequently employed as an inflation hedge, holding non-interest-bearing assets becomes more costly as interest rates rise. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude Oil remains low amidst recession fears On Monday, concerns over a projected worldwide recession-driven decline in demand kept the price of Brent crude futures below the $92 per barrel barrier. Investors are becoming more concerned about a worsening economic forecast in the face of escalating macro challenges, such as high inflation and tighter financial conditions. Furthermore, according to Chinese customs data, demand from the biggest crude importer in the world remained muted in September as a result of ongoing coronavirus-related limitations and export restrictions on fuel. Even still, amid growing rumors that the oil cartel will further interfere in markets to support prices, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, decided to cut production by 2 million barrels per day in November, the largest reduction since the start of the crisis. Concerns about a shortage of supplies were also heightened by a pending ban on Russian crude by the European Union. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Corn futures Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that reflects the benchmark market for this commodity shows that corn has gained 88.85 USd/BU or 14.98% since the start of 2022. Corn Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
NGAS Prices Are Close To 7-Month Lows, Cotton Futures Touching December 2020 Lows, Gold Weighed Down By Inflationary Pressures

NGAS Prices Are Close To 7-Month Lows, Cotton Futures Touching December 2020 Lows, Gold Weighed Down By Inflationary Pressures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.10.2022 14:00
Summary: Prices have dropped about 60% in the past nine weeks. Persistent demand concerns and rising interest rates causing cotton to decline. Investors await further information on the direction of US Fed monetary tightening. NGAS rose during the 4th week of October On the assumption that LNG shipments would rise as a result of the conclusion of maintenance outages at plants like Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Cove Point LNG, and Freeport LNG, US natural gas futures were up in the fourth week of October. Nevertheless, due to projections of lower weather-driven demand, record domestic production levels, and decreased LNG exports that allowed utilities to inject more gas into storage, prices have dropped about 60% in the past nine weeks and are still very close to seven-month lows. Below Refinitiv's forecast on Friday, the average US gas demand, including exports, is anticipated to increase this week. In the meantime, Lower 48 US states have seen an increase in average gas production, rising to 99.5 bcfd so far in October from a record 99.4 bcfd in September. According to the EIA data, US utilities added more gas than anticipated (111 bcf) to storage last week, well exceeding the 91 bcf that was injected during the same week last year and the 73 bcf that was added on average over the previous five years (2017–2021). NGAS Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton supply and demand prospects are falling Due to persistent demand concerns and rising interest rates, which strengthened the currency and reduced the appeal of commodities priced in US dollars, cotton futures fell to a level not seen since December 2020. On the supply side, however, an optimistic report from the US Department of Agriculture provided some support for the fiber. In light of the ongoing uncertainty on the extent to which unfavorable weather conditions, such as drought and heavy rain, may reduce output in top producer Texas and other states for the 2022–2023 season, the USDA has lowered its outlook for domestic supplies. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold weighed down by inflation worries After swinging wildly in the previous two sessions, gold prices stabilized near $1,650 an ounce on Tuesday as investors carefully awaited further information on the direction of US Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Fed officials are likely to take into account a lesser increase in December amid worries about overtightening after delivering a widely anticipated 75 basis point rate boost in November, the WSJ reported on Friday. Such a view was bolstered by data showing that private sector activity in the US shrank for the fourth consecutive month in October, indicating that the economy is already feeling the effects of tighter financial conditions. Investors continued to be wary of inflation worries, which might trigger another surge in the currency and Treasury yields. Amid increased political and economic unpredictability throughout the world, markets also maintained a strong position in the dollar as a safe-haven asset and as an alternative to gold. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Securing Battery Metal Supply Chains: Challenges and Opportunities Amid the Global Energy Transition

US WTI Crude Stockpiles Rising, Palladium Futures, Coffee Futures Approaching 1-year Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.10.2022 18:00
Summary: Market concerns about a worldwide recession persisted. Palladium prices have increased by 2.27% since the start of 2022. Coffee prices are driven down by a stronger dollar and an improving crop outlook. WTI Crude Oil futures falling Following a near 1% increase in the previous session, WTI oil futures on Wednesday dropped below $85 per barrel as an industry report indicated a significant build in US crude stockpiles and market concerns about a worldwide recession persisted. US crude stockpiles increased by approximately 4.5 million barrels last week, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute, greatly above forecasts for a boost of only over 200,000 barrels. Investors also were worrying about the possibility of a worldwide economic downturn, as this week's weak US data suggested that the recent, abrasive monetary tightening was already having an effect on the economy. As investors considered the OPEC+ plan to cut output by 2 million barrels from November as well as the impending European Union ban on Russian crude in December, oil prices stayed in a sideways trading range for the past five sessions. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Palladium Futures up overall in 2022 Increased 42.98 USD/t oz for palladium. Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity indicates the price has increased by 2.27% since the start of 2022. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee futures weighed down by strong dollar Arabica coffee futures on ICE continued to decline, approaching lows not seen in more than a year, as a result of a stronger dollar and an improving crop outlook in top producer Brazil as a result of reports of plentiful rain that may have accelerated flowering for the crop of coffee that will be harvested in 2019. The most recent statistics revealed that on October 13th, ICE-certified arabica stocks reached a new 23-year low of 408,419 bags. Additionally, the largest consumer region in the globe, Europe, is concerned about the demand for coffee due to continued economic issues, according to investment bank Itau BBA. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Agricultural Commodities Markets Are Going To Remain Sensitive To Developments In The Russia-Ukraine War

Platinum Futures, Gasoline Prices Are Declining, Wheat Futures Recovering From 5-week Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.10.2022 17:04
Summary: Chicago wheat futures were recovering from the five-week low. Gas prices are not far from where they were when Russia invaded Ukraine. Platinum prices have declined by 0.8% in 2022. Wheat futures demand prospects look dim In response to concerns over supply and a weaker dollar, Chicago wheat futures were recovering from the five-week low of $8.3 set on October 25. The Rosario grain exchange reduced its forecast for the 2022–23 harvest by 1.3 million tonnes to 13.7 million due to droughts in Argentina. In the interim, Ukrainian authorities said that strikes by Russia prevented Ukrainian ports from operating to their full capacity, which was reduced to 25%. The exporter will be able to ship wheat and free up much-needed silo storage space, the UN continued to express optimism regarding the expansion of the safe trade corridor for Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Demand indicators remained disappointing in the interim. The latest indication of weaker international demand came from data from the United States, which showed a 46% weekly fall in exports for the week ending October 21. Additionally, according to Chinese customs figures, 370 000 tonnes of wheat were imported in September, which is a 40% decrease from the same month last year. Wheat Futures Price Charts RBOB Gasoline prices are declining In advance of the midterm US elections, gas prices are declining, relieving pressure on Democrats who are dealing with high fuel prices in crucial swing states and elsewhere across the nation. Since its peak of more than $5 in June, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline has dropped by $1.25, prompting administration officials like White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain to draw attention to the drops. According to Biden officials who regularly review the data, the national average price is currently not far from where it was when Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. Officials from the Biden administration have nonetheless stated in closed-door conversations that the national average should be closer to $3.20. RBOB Gasoline Futures Price Chart Platinum Futures Since the start of 2022, the price of platinum has dropped by 7.67 USD/t oz., or 0.80%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Platinum Futures Price Chart Sources: bloomberg.com, finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

Gold On Course To Increase For The Second Consecutive Week, Brent Crude Likely Facing Supply Tightening, Cotton Futures Touching 22-month Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.10.2022 17:01
Summary: Gold on course to increase for the second consecutive week. Brent crude futures expected to close the week higher. Stronger dollar and continuing demand worries driving cotton down. Gold supported by weak US economic statistics Taking advantage of steep drops in the dollar and Treasury yields due to rising predictions that the US Federal Reserve may pause the pace of rate hikes later in the year, gold prices remained stable over $1,660 an ounce on Friday and were on course to increase for the second consecutive week. Although markets started to predict that the Fed would become less aggressive in December due to worries about overtightening, the Fed is largely expected to deliver its fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate increase in November. Such forecasts were bolstered by a deluge of weak US economic statistics earlier this week, but the third quarter's better-than-expected US GDP figures provided a counterbalance. Investors continued to be wary of inflation worries, which might trigger another surge in the currency and Treasury yields. Kristalina Gerogieva, managing director of the IMF, urged central banks to keep raising interest rates to combat inflation until they reached a "neutral" level. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude Oil facing potential supply tightening Despite easing toward $96 per barrel on Friday, Brent crude futures were still expected to close the week higher due to a tightening supply forecast, record US exports, and a steep decline in the value of the US dollar. Last week, the US exported a record quantity of oil and fuel, despite the fact that local fuel markets experienced seasonal lows in fuel stockpiles, which hampered the forecast for supply. A dramatic decline in the value of the dollar helped to support oil prices as well by lowering the cost of commodities with US dollar prices for consumers using other currencies. Along with snapping a four-month losing streak, the OPEC+ plan to reduce output by 2 million barrels per day starting in November and the intensifying Western sanctions on Russian oil are both driving up oil prices in October. Investors continued to be wary in the meanwhile as the prognosis for demand remained gloomy due to escalating inflation, rising interest rates, and growing recessionary threats. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Cotton touch 22-month lows The price of cotton futures fell to a 22-month low of 75.1 USd/Lbs under the strain of a stronger dollar and continuing demand worries brought on by difficult economic conditions. According to the most recent estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, both acreage and output grew, and worldwide cotton production is predicted to reach 118.1 million bales in 2022–23, a 2% rise over the previous year. China, Brazil, and India contributed more to the increase in output than the United States and Pakistan did to the decrease. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Portugal's Economic Outlook: Growth Forecast and Inflation Trends

Prospects Of A More Dovish Fed Supporting Silver, Corn Futures Rally, Brent Crude Weighed Down By Recession Fears

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.10.2022 17:42
Summary: Expectations that the Fed will change course by December sparked a bond rally. Worries about a possible world recession and a drop in oil consumption. Chicago maize futures surged to their highest levels in three months. Silver supported by a potentially dovish fed On optimism that the US Federal Reserve would soon cut down the rate of interest rate hikes to avoid overtightening, spot silver extended gains to beyond $19.5 per ounce, moving farther away from a 1-1/2-month low of $18.3 reached in mid-October. Investors are now essentially certain that the US central bank will announce a fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate hike on November 2, but expectations that the Fed will change course by December sparked a bond rally and caused the dollar to weaken, which increased the appeal of non-interest bearing assets. Even still, silver's price has dropped more than 25% from its March peak, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked a surge in precious metals. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude weighed down by recession worries On Monday, the price of Brent crude futures dropped below $95 per barrel as investors became uneasy over persistent worries about a possible world recession and a drop in oil consumption, particularly in China. Concerns that new coronavirus-induced restrictions may harm economic activity and reduce oil consumption were stoked by factory activity falling short of forecasts in the world's largest crude consumer. Nevertheless, despite limited worldwide supplies, the international benchmark increased by more than 10% in October, putting it on course to post its first monthly rise in five. The most significant reduction in output since the start of the crisis was reached in November by OPEC and its partners, including Russia, amid growing rumors that the oil cartel will continue to interfere in markets to support prices. As a component of broader penalties for the invasion of Ukraine, the European Union's ban on Russian oil is also scheduled to go into force in December. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Corn spiked after Russia pulled out on UN-mediated agreement After Moscow abruptly backed out of the UN-mediated agreement that provided a secure trading route for grain supplies leaving Ukrainian Black Sea ports, Chicago maize futures surged to their highest levels in three months. Although the West disputed the prospect, Russia cited ships being used to deliver weaponry to Ukraine as justification for the cancellation. Following a Russian military embargo that had made seaborne grain exports from Ukraine impossible since February, an agreement that went into effect in July permitted Ukrainian grains to be transported on board ships carrying food from Ukraine. Around 20% of the world's corn exports were made through Black Sea ports prior to the invasion. In addition to prohibiting exports, the stoppage of port activities will prevent Ukraine from releasing crucial storage space in silos as the harvest for the 2022–2023 marketing year is underway, severely endangering the availability of food throughout the world. Corn Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

NGAS Down 10% On Tuesday, Gold Increased Ahead Of Wednesday's Fed Announcement, Cotton Futures Touching 22-month Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.11.2022 20:58
Summary: US natural gas futures fell over 10%. Gold rose ahead of the Fed monetary policy announcement tomorrow. The price of cotton futures fell to a 22-month low. NGAS close at their lowest since May US natural gas futures fell over 10%, closing in on their lowest level since May at $5.6/MMBtu, as utilities continued to inject gas into storage for the winter despite expectations for milder weather over the next two weeks that should reduce demand for cooling. As record production levels and weaker export demand, notably from Europe, alarmed investors, natural gas prices in the US have now fallen more than 40% from their peak in August. The Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland owned by Berkshire Hathaway Energy, meanwhile, resumed operations on October 28 following a month of maintenance. In early to mid-November, the Freeport plant in Texas is also expected to partially begin operations. NGAS Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold increased on Wednesday Ahead of the highly anticipated Fed monetary policy announcement due tomorrow, gold prices increased by about 1% to trade above $1,650 an ounce on Tuesday as the dollar surge came to an end and bond rates dropped. The central bank is expected to deliver another rate increase of gigantic proportions (75 bps), but the likelihood that it will limit the tempo of hikes in December is growing. In other countries, the Reserve Bank of Australia increased interest rates once more by 25 basis points in November, while the Bank of England is scheduled to raise rates once more on Thursday. Despite Tuesday's advances, gold is still under severe pressure and is not far from lows not seen since April 2020 because keeping non-yielding bullion has a higher opportunity cost due to a general increase in borrowing costs. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton under strain of the strong USD The price of cotton futures fell to a 22-month low of 75.1 USd/Lbs under the strain of a stronger dollar and continuing demand worries brought on by difficult economic conditions. According to the most recent estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, both acreage and output grew, and worldwide cotton production is predicted to reach 118.1 million bales in 2022–23, a 2% rise over the previous year. China, Brazil, and India contributed more to the increase in output than the United States and Pakistan did to the decrease. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Saxo Bank Podcast: Natural Gas On Colder Weather, Wheat And Coffee Under Pressure, JPY Weaker And More

Platinum Futures, Efforts To Slow Gas Prices Continue, Wheat Futures Down 6%

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.11.2022 16:34
Summary: Platinum futures are down 1.11% during 2022. Russia declared that, once its requests have been satisfied by Ukrainian counterparts, it is willing to continue the trade agreement that ensures a safe passageway for grain-carrying vessels. EU efforts to lower high energy prices are slowing down the adoption of renewable energy. Platinum Futures According to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity, platinum has dropped 10.67 USD/t oz. or 1.11% since the start of 2022. Platinum Jan ‘23 Futures Price Chart Wheat futures fell 6% on Wednesday Following news that trade for ships transporting grain out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports may resume operations, Chicago wheat futures plunged more than 6% to $8.5 per bushel on Wednesday, dropping considerably from the three-week high of $9 reached the prior session. Russia declared that, once its requests have been satisfied by Ukrainian counterparts, it is willing to continue the trade agreement that ensures a safe passageway for grain-carrying vessels. The action was taken after Moscow abruptly chose to terminate the agreement's participation at the end of October, citing security concerns that Kyiv refuted. The continuance of shipments from Ukraine will boost global supplies in addition to freeing up essential storage space for the upcoming harvest, increasing concerns about a global food crisis that drove wheat prices to a record-high $12.8 in May. Prior to February's Russian invasion of Ukraine, sales from both nations made up about 30% of all exports. Wheat Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline futures The CEO of one of the biggest wind turbine manufacturers in the world cautioned that EU efforts to lower high energy prices are slowing down the adoption of renewable energy just as the area wants to boost it up. “Every indication is that the EU and governments have spent more time in finding taxation methods or trying to limit energy prices, which has actually slowed the process and project accruals,” Henrik Andersen, chief executive of Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas, told the Financial Times. In an effort to slow the growth in energy costs across Europe brought on by high gas prices, European energy ministers decided in September to set a $180 per megawatt-hour cap on earnings from the production of wind, solar, and nuclear energy. RBOB Gasoline Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com, tradingeconomics.com
WTI Crude Oil Driven Down By Recession Concerns, Palladium Touching 5-month Lows, Coffee Futures

WTI Crude Oil Driven Down By Recession Concerns, Palladium Touching 5-month Lows, Coffee Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.11.2022 16:28
Summary: Worries about a likely recession-driven decline in demand for WTI Crude. Dollar index dipped back toward 20-year highs. higher Brazilian real and lower global supplies for coffee. WTI Crude Oil trading low On Thursday, WTI oil futures were trading around $88.50 per barrel, down from a session high of $90.40, as worries about a likely recession-driven decline in demand took precedence. In a decision that was largely anticipated, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 75 basis points. It did, however, issue a warning that interest rates would rise more than expected, maintaining the pressure on global demand and economy. Losses were however constrained by the likelihood that the global oil market would remain extremely tight. There is growing concern that the oil cartel would further intervene in markets to support prices, despite the recent agreement by OPEC+ to reduce output by 2 million barrels per day in November, the largest since the epidemic. While this was going on, Saudi Arabia warned the US through intelligence that Iran was about to attack Saudi Arabian targets. A battle in the area might cause the world market to lose millions of barrels. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Palladium touching 5-month lows Palladium futures continued to decline, reaching a low of $1,820 per ounce, the lowest level in nearly five months, as the dollar index dipped back toward 20-year highs due to the possibility of further increases in interest rates, which damaged commodities. Prices for palladium are more than 40% lower than they were in March, since palladium is being replaced by platinum and interest rates are rising. In order to combat inflation even during a slowdown, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, is projected to keep raising interest rates. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The palladium market is projected to be balanced or in deficit this year and next year, according to analysts who predict supply-demand balances. Palladium Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Coffee futures Due in part to the higher Brazilian real and lower global supplies, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading at or around their best levels since October 25. While the International Coffee Organization reported that worldwide coffee shipments from October through September declined 0.4% year over year to 129 million bags, recent data indicated ICE-certified arabica stockpiles fell to a fresh 23-year low of 384,795 bags. The Minas Gerais region of Brazil, which produces around 30% of the nation's arabica crop, received only 79% of the historical average of 28.9 mm of rain last week, according to the most recent Somar Meteorologia report. Coffee Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
The Commodities Feed: First US crude draw this year

Gold Supported By The Halt In The US Dollar Rally, Brent Crude Futures Increased 4%, Cotton Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.11.2022 15:46
Summary: Gold prices rose by almost 2% on Friday. The price of Brent crude futures increased by about 4%. Cotton prices remained almost 50% below their May peak. Gold prices rose in the wake of the halt of the US dollar rally On Friday, when the dollar rally came to a halt and investors considered the monetary policy prospects, gold prices rose by almost 2%, approaching $1670 an ounce. The most recent payrolls report demonstrated that the US labor market is still strong, with payroll growth above expectations by 261K, supporting the Fed's decision to continue its tightening measures. Investors also believe that much more tightening won't likely be required, despite the unemployment rate exceeding expectations. The Fed Chair stated that it is "premature to discuss pausing" and that interest rates would need to rise more than initially anticipated as the central bank announced its fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate hike on Wednesday. Gold Futures Price Chart Brent crude futures touching levels not seen since late July The price of Brent crude futures increased by about 4% to above $98 per barrel, a level not seen since late July, as news reports that China would ease its coronavirus-related restrictions in the near future improved the outlook for demand. Additionally, the likelihood that the world's oil markets would continue to be highly tight gave bulls another reason for optimism. There is growing concern that the oil cartel would further intervene in markets to support prices, despite the recent agreement by OPEC+ to reduce output by 2 million barrels per day in November, the largest since the epidemic. Concerns about a projected recession-driven decline in demand brought on by a string of draconian tightening measures from important central banks kept prices in check. The international benchmark increased by about 5% this week, putting it on course to advance for a third straight week. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Cotton futures 50% lower than late July peak As dip buyers started to show up, a significant selloff that had driven cotton futures to a nearly 22-month low of 71.6 last month was tempered. Cotton futures are now moving towards the 80 USd/Lb level. Nevertheless, prices remained almost 50% below their May peak, restrained by a stronger currency and persistent worries about demand brought on by the difficult economic climate. According to the most recent estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, both acreage and yield grew, and worldwide cotton production is predicted to reach 118.1 million bales in 2022–2023—an increase of 2% over the previous year. India, Brazil, and China are mostly responsible for the increased output, which counterbalanced decreases from the United States and Pakistan. Cotton Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
A Significant Change In The Prospects For The Crude Oil Market

Silver falls from its one-month high, Brent Crude facing both weak demand and weak supply outlooks, Corn futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.11.2022 17:56
Summary: After rising 7% to a one-month high on Friday, silver dropped down again. Investors weighed limited supply against a dim demand picture. Chicago corn futures declined at the beginning of November. Silver jewelry demand under pressure After rising 7% to a one-month high on Friday, silver dropped down around $20.5 per ounce on Monday. China denied it was considering modifying its zero-Covid policy, which is putting pressure on the demand for silver jewelry. Since more than two years ago, COVID-related limitations have put pressure on sales of silver jewelry in China, a major customer, while a slump in the world economy is lowering demand for electronics and cars. Since its March peak, silver has fallen more than 20% as a result of rising interest rates everywhere. The US Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, increased rates for the fourth consecutive time by 75 basis points, and borrowing will continue to rise to a higher peak than expected. Looking ahead, it seems likely that China's economy won't be able to make up for the tightening of global financial conditions even if it is reopened. If the Federal Reserve acts more aggressively than expected, silver's decline will be more apparent. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude Oil futures On Monday, the price of Brent oil futures was hovering around $99 per barrel, reaching levels last seen in late August as investors weighed limited supply against a dim demand picture. In addition, a declining dollar and increased risk appetite also encouraged bulls. With anticipation growing that the oil cartel could further interfere in markets to support prices, OPEC+ just agreed to cut output by 2 million barrels per day in November, the highest since the epidemic. But worries about a probable demand slump brought on by the recession persisted. Over the weekend, Chinese authorities reaffirmed their dedication to the zero-Covid strategy, dimming hopes for a policy change that may boost demand in the world's largest crude importer. Brent Crude Futures ORice Chart Corn futures Chicago corn futures declined at the beginning of November, following the trend for other grains, after Russia declared it would rejoin the UN-mediated agreement that ensures the security of grain exports leaving Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Moscow's decision to withdraw from the deal at the end of October over security considerations was overturned by the action, allaying concerns about a worldwide food crisis. Along with impeding sales, the suspension of port operations would have prevented Ukraine from clearing out significant amounts of silo storage when the harvest for the 2022–2023 marketing year got under way. The USDA reported that 264 thousand tonnes of corn were shipped for the week ending October 20th, far less than the 350 thousand to 1.075 million tonnes of estimates. Corn Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Commodities Update: Strong Russian Oil Flows to China and Volatility in European Gas Market

Gold reaches 1-month highs on Tuesday, US NGAS futures list 10% on Tuesday, cotton futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.11.2022 18:18
Summary: The US dollar fell and worrying US economic confidence statistics. NGAS down from 3-week highs. A significant selloff that had driven cotton futures to a nearly 22-month low. Gold prices supported by concerning US economic statistics Gold prices rose to above $1,700 on Tuesday, the highest level in more than a month, as the US dollar fell and worrying US economic confidence statistics made the argument for the Federal Reserve to drop its target interest rate. Investors eagerly anticipate this week's release of the October CPI report in the hopes that it will support the recent decline in inflation and lessen pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep depressing demand. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion, which reduces the appeal of gold, despite the fact that it is commonly seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Investors in other markets kept an eye out for China's policy cues to see if it was considering easing up on its zero-Covid policy. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS down from 3-week high US natural gas futures had a 10% decline on Tuesday, falling from a 3-week high of nearly $7 set the previous day to $6.4/MMBtu. The demand projection for the upcoming week was also revised downward due to warmer weather. The average US gas demand, including exports, is anticipated to increase to 121.2 bcfd from 98.4 bcfd this week, falling short of earlier projections. Increasing LNG exports and declining output have recently bolstered prices. After Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point LNG plant resumed operations on October 28th, the Texas-based Freeport LNG export facility, which has been idle since June, is expected to start up again by the middle of the month. So far in November, the Lower 48 US states' average gas production has decreased to 98.4 bcfd. NGAS Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices 50% down from May peak As dip buyers started to show up, a significant selloff that had driven cotton futures to a nearly 22-month low of 71.6 last month was tempered. Cotton futures are now moving towards the 80 USd/Lb level. Nevertheless, prices remained almost 50% below their May peak, restrained by a stronger currency and persistent worries about demand brought on by the difficult economic climate. According to the most recent estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, both acreage and yield grew, and worldwide cotton production is predicted to reach 118.1 million bales in 2022–2023—an increase of 2% over the previous year. India, Brazil, and China are mostly responsible for the increased output, which counterbalanced decreases from the United States and Pakistan. Cotton Marc ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com  
Securing Battery Metal Supply Chains: Challenges and Opportunities Amid the Global Energy Transition

WTI crude oil down 2%, palladium touching 5 month lows, coffee touching 15 month lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.11.2022 17:00
Summary: WTI crude continued their third session of losses. Despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The price of Arabica coffee futures dropped to its lowest level in 15 months as supply prospects improved. WTI Crude Oil down amidst concerns of a worldwide recession On Wednesday, WTI oil futures lost approximately 2% of their value and traded near the $87 per barrel level, continuing their third session of losses due to ongoing concerns over a worldwide recession-driven decline in demand. Renewed COVID- Hopes for a gradual economic reopening and a comeback in energy consumption were dashed by 19 outbreaks in China, the world's largest oil importer, which raised fears of potential new lockdowns. Fears that an aggressive tightening campaign by major central banks in developed economies could pull the world into a recession and reduce oil consumption were exacerbated by uncertainty about China's outlook. Additionally, according to API statistics, US oil stockpiles increased by nearly 5.6 million barrels last week, above forecasts for an increase of 1.1 million barrels. Even still, supplies around the world are still exceedingly scarce since OPEC+ cut production in November by 2 million barrels per day, and because the European Union is set to impose a ban on Russian oil in December. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Palladium touches 5-month lows Palladium futures continued to decline, reaching a low of $1,820 per ounce, the lowest level in nearly five months, as the dollar index dipped back toward 20-year highs due to the possibility of further increases in interest rates, which damaged commodities. Prices for palladium are more than 40% lower than they were in March, since palladium is being replaced by platinum and interest rates are rising. In order to combat inflation even during a slowdown, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, is projected to keep raising interest rates. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The palladium market is projected to be balanced or in deficit this year and next year, according to analysts who predict supply-demand balances. Palladium Futures Price Chart Coffee touching 15 month lows The price of Arabica coffee futures dropped to its lowest level in 15 months as supply prospects improved and demand projections were expected to decline. World Weather reported that Brazil's 2023–24 coffee crop had grown in a "very excellent climate" due to frequent rain and plenty of sunshine, sparking hopes for a potential record production in the top producer Brazil the following year. Additionally, Colombia, Mexico, and Central America are predicted to produce better crops. Demand is expected to decrease at the same time that global growth slows. Even yet, according to the most recent statistics, ICE-certified arabica stocks hit a new low of 384,795 bags, which is a 23-year low, although traders predicted that stocks would soon rebound. Coffee Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Platinum futures touching 4-month highs, US Gasoline Prices High, Wheat shortage concerns driving futures prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.11.2022 18:57
Summary: Platinum futures increased to their highest level in 4 months. Projections for global wheat supply and ending stocks for the 2022 marketing year have climbed. The West Coast's limited gasoline supply would keep gas prices high. Platinum futures supported by a weaker US dollar Platinum futures increased to their highest level in four months at $965 per ounce as the dollar declined more than 4% since reaching 20-year highs at the end of September, enhancing the attraction of commodities with dollar prices. Although demand has decreased due to slower economic growth, higher interest rates, and a persistent semiconductor shortage that has hurt auto production, the price of platinum is still down more than 15% from its March peak. The platinum market should be in surplus both this year and the following year, according to analysts who predicted supply-demand balances. However, the rise of China's energy sector and the country's robust industrial demand continue to drive up prices for the commodity. Platinum Futures Price Chart Wheat futures Chicago wheat futures reached a two-month low in November before rising to levels seen before Russia's invasion of Ukraine as hopes of a plentiful supply allayed concerns about a shortage. Projections for global supply and ending stocks for the 2022 marketing year have climbed, contrary to forecasts of a fall, according to data from the USDA's WASDE report, as stronger output in Australia and Kazakhstan offset expected declines in Argentina and the EU. Russia's commitment to resume the UN-mediated arrangement, which ensures a safe passage for ships delivering Ukrainian grain after demands have been met by Ukrainian officials, was another factor supporting supplies. The action was taken after Moscow abruptly chose to halt the deal at the end of October, citing Kyiv's denials of any security concerns. Investors are currently anticipating the UN-Russia delegation meeting to talk about extending the pact, as the present agreement expires on November 19. Wheat Futures Price Chart US gasoline has been rising Following a fire on Tuesday night at Chevron Corp.'s El Segundo, California, refinery, California gasoline increased to $1.07 per gallon over NYMEX December gasoline in the Los Angeles wholesale market, according to West Coast market traders. Due to a refinery in northern California losing power and planned maintenance at another plant in southern California, gasoline in the Los Angeles market has been trending upward for the previous two weeks and last traded at 96.5 cents on Tuesday. The West Coast's limited gasoline supply would keep prices high, according to traders. RBOB Gasoline Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Agricultural Commodities Markets Are Going To Remain Sensitive To Developments In The Russia-Ukraine War

Silver prices are 12% up in November, brent crude down on concerns around the reopening of China, corn futures falling

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.11.2022 17:20
Summary: Silver prices are nearly 12% higher in November. Investors remained on edge due to concerns over a possible reopening of China. Corn futures had their largest monthly decline on indications of ample supply. Silver futures up in November When compared to the five-month high of $21.7, silver futures were trading near $22 per ounce as speculators continued to predict how much the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates at its upcoming meetings. Despite the October inflation reading being lower than anticipated, Fed policymakers insisted that the central bank is continuing to fight inflation. Even so, silver prices are nearly 12% higher in November as wagers on the Federal Reserve's target rate were reduced by data confirming the trend of reducing inflation. In December, the Fed is expected to increase its target funds rate by 50 basis points (bps), slowing from the four consecutive 75-bps rate increases made since June. Although bullion is frequently employed as an inflation hedge, its attraction is diminished by increased interest rates as they increase the opportunity cost to store non-interest-bearing assets. Silver futures price chart Brent crude oil falling in the wake of relaxed COVID-19 measures in China Brent crude futures were trading at roughly $95 per barrel, a sharp decline from their daily highs of $97 per barrel as investors remained on edge due to a strong currency and concerns over a possible reopening of China. China's National Health Commission recently relaxed certain coronavirus-related restrictions on the top oil import in the world, but an increase in coronavirus cases over the weekend delayed plans for an immediate and thorough reopening. After OPEC+ agreed to limit output by 2 million barrels per day in November, the potential of even tighter supplies continued to support prices. At the same time, a ban on Russian oil by the European Union is scheduled to go into effect in December. Brent crude futures price chart Corn weighed down by strong supply prospects Chicago maize futures experienced their largest monthly decline on indications of ample supply. As poor Chinese demand encourages soybean farmers to grow alternative crops, USDA predictions point to increased corn seedlings and plantation areas for the upcoming marketing year. Expectations for the supply increased as well after Russia declared it will rejoin the UN-mediated agreement that ensures the security of grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Moscow's decision to withdraw from the deal at the end of October over security considerations was overturned by the action, allaying concerns about a worldwide food crisis. The restoration of trade not only facilitates exports but also allows Ukraine to release significant storage space in silos as the harvest for the 2022–2023 marketing year is underway. Corn futures price chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Commodities Update: Strong Russian Oil Flows to China and Volatility in European Gas Market

Gold future prices remaining stable, NGAS higher amidst expectations of cooler weather, cotton futures recovering their 22-month lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 15.11.2022 18:53
Summary: On Tuesday, gold prices remained stable. US NGAS futures increased on expectations of increasing heating demand as a result of colder than usual temperatures. Cotton prices remained almost 50% below their May peak. Gold trading at highest levels in 3 months On Tuesday, gold prices remained stable at approximately $1,770 per ounce as traders reevaluated the outlook for US interest rates in the wake of conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve. The Fed still has a lot of work to do in combating inflation, according to Fed officials, who conceded that the central bank may pause the pace of rate rises in the forthcoming sessions. After delivering four consecutive 75 basis point increases, investors are predicting that the Fed would scale back the magnitude of its rate hikes to 50 basis points starting in December. Gold, however, continued to trade at its highest levels in almost three months, largely as a result of recent dollar weakness and a decline in cryptocurrency prices. Although rising interest rates diminish its appeal because the metal does not pay interest, gold has long been seen as a safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS futures up on cooler temperature prospects In the third week of November, US natural gas futures increased on expectations of increasing heating demand as a result of colder than usual temperatures. There are indications that the Freeport LNG export plant restart won't happen until December, which would increase the amount of gas available for domestic usage. According to other recent EIA statistics, US utilities added 79 bcf of gas to storage last week, falling short of market forecasts for an increase of 84 bcf and falling short of a gain of 15 bcf during the same week last year. NGAS Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton recovering from 22-month lows As dip buyers started to show up, a significant selloff that had driven cotton futures to a nearly 22-month low of 71.6 last month was tempered. Cotton futures are now moving towards the 80 USd/Lb level. Nevertheless, prices remained almost 50% below their May peak, restrained by a stronger currency and persistent worries about demand brought on by the difficult economic climate. According to the most recent estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, both acreage and yield grew, and worldwide cotton production is predicted to reach 118.1 million bales in 2022–2023—an increase of 2% over the previous year. India, Brazil, and China are mostly responsible for the increased output, which counterbalanced decreases from the United States and Pakistan. Cotton Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
The Commodities Feed: First US crude draw this year

WTI Crude Oil futures, Palladium futures touching 1-month highs, Coffee touching 15-month lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 16.11.2022 17:32
Summary: Palladium futures extended gains to their highest in a month. The price of Arabica coffee futures dropped to its lowest level in 15 months. Oil prices were kept in check by worries about a global economic downturn. WTI Crude futures After a Russian-made missile struck Polish territory and killed two citizens, geopolitical worries shook the markets, as WTI crude futures hovered close to $87 per barrel on Wednesday. The missile's launcher is still unknown with certainty, according to Polish President Andrzej Duda, who also noted that it was an isolated incident. As the European Union prepares to impose an embargo on Russian crude supplies starting in December, the possibility of a wider conflict in Europe threatens to compound the outlook for a tightening supply on the oil market. OPEC further reduced its estimates for the growth of the world's oil consumption in 2022 and 2023, citing escalating economic problems such high inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain disruptions. Oil prices were kept in check by worries about a global economic downturn as major central banks tightened policy further and uncertainty relating to COVID in the world's largest petroleum importer, China. WTI crude futures price chart Palladium futures supported by prospects of a more dovish fed The dollar index neared 3-month lows as palladium futures extended gains to above $2,070 per ounce, the highest in a month, on the expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates more slowly as inflation starts to decline. As a result of higher interest rates, slower economic development, and the replacement of platinum for palladium, palladium prices are still 35% below their March peak. After four straight 75 bps rises, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, is anticipated to boost the fed funds rate by 50 basis points in December. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The palladium market is projected to be balanced or in deficit this year and next year, according to analysts who predict supply-demand balances. Palladium Mar ‘23 futures price chart Coffee futures fell due to improved supply prospects The price of Arabica coffee futures dropped to $1.64 a pound, its lowest level in 15 months, as supply prospects improved and demand projections were expected to decline. World Weather reported that Brazil's 2023–24 coffee crop had grown in a "very excellent climate" due to frequent rain and plenty of sunshine, sparking hopes for a potential record production in the top producer Brazil the following year. Additionally, Colombia, Mexico, and Central America are predicted to produce better crops. Demand is expected to decrease at the same time that global growth slows. Even yet, according to the most recent statistics, ICE-certified arabica stocks hit a new low of 384,795 bags, which is a 23-year low, although traders predicted that stocks would soon rebound. Coffee Mar ‘23 futures price chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Platinum supply could experience a shortfall, gasoline touching 4-week lows, wheat touching 2.5 month lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.11.2022 16:59
Summary: Platinum futures declined below the $1,000 per ounce barrier. Gasoline prices extended to the lowest level in nearly four weeks. Chicago wheat futures fell below a level not reached since late August. Platinum futures down from 8-month high As new outbreaks in top user China crushed hopes for a potential end to its zero-Covid policy, clouding the outlook for demand, platinum futures declined below the $1,000 per ounce barrier, sliding further from an eight-month high of around $1,050. According to statistics from the World Platinum Investment Council, the supply side of the platinum market could experience a shortfall of 219,000 ounces in 2023 as opposed to a surplus of 974,000 ounces in 2022. Beyond the reduction in supplies globally, there was ongoing concern regarding Russian exports. After South Africa, Russia is the second-largest supplier of platinum worldwide. Platinum Jan ‘23 futures price chart Gasoline on track for its 4th consecutive weekly decline Due to increased supply, gasoline futures saw their losses deepen to below $2.5 per gallon in mid-November, the lowest level in nearly four weeks. Following a fourth consecutive week of declines, the latest EIA data revealed that US gasoline stockpiles increased by 2.207 million barrels to 207.9 million last week, far exceeding market forecasts of a 0.31 million-barrel increase. According to the data, US refineries processed an average of 16.2 million barrels of crude oil per day during the week ending November 11th, which is 63,000 barrels per day more than the previous week's average. This is the sixth week in a row that gasoline production has climbed. RBOB Gasoline Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat touching late August lows Chicago wheat futures fell below $8 per bushel, a level not reached since late August, as steady exports from a key exporter, Ukraine, allayed concerns about a lack of supply around the world. The UN-mediated agreement has been extended by Russia for another four months, ensuring a trade route through the Black Sea and releasing pressure on world food prices. As a result of stronger output in Australia and Kazakhstan offsetting probable decreases in Argentina and the EU, figures from the USDA's WASDE report improved predictions for the world supply and ending inventories for the forthcoming marketing year, contrary to expectations of a decline. Wheat futures price chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

Silver retreating from its five-month high, Brent crude dropping as COVID-19 cases in China surge, Corn futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.11.2022 18:44
Summary: Silver futures are declining as investors weigh the Fed’s aggressiveness to fight inflation. Concerns over covid-19 related lockdowns in China are weighing on Brent crude. Corn futures up more than 12% in 2022. Silver down from a 5-month high As investors continued to assess the outlook on the Fed's aggressiveness to fight inflation, silver futures declined to below $20.7 per ounce, continuing its retreat from the five-month high of $21.7 hit on November 14th. This decline was pressured by a new rally for the US dollar. The expectation of higher interest rates not only increased the opportunity cost of keeping non-interest-bearing bullion assets, but also decreased demand for industrial silver used as electricity conductors, paralleling the reduction for copper. On the other hand, due in part to looming supply worries, silver futures are still 16% above the 14-month low of $18 per ounce reached on September 1st. In the last 18 months, inventories at the COMEX in New York have decreased by 70% to just over 1 million tonnes, while those at the London Bullion Market Association have decreased for 10 consecutive months to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude Oil dropped for its fourth consecutive session On Monday, Brent oil futures dropped below $87 a barrel for the fourth consecutive session due to worries that China might tighten its import restrictions and that major central banks will keep rising interest rates. Over the weekend, China announced the first Covid-related fatalities in six months, and on Monday, localized lockdowns were enacted in some locations as the world's largest oil importer battled resurgent Covid breakouts. Investors were also concerned that tighter financial circumstances might cause the world economy to enter a recession, which would harm demand for energy. However, investors continued to be wary of the very ambiguous supply outlook heading into the winter, with the European Union due to limit Russian crude exports starting in December and OPEC anticipated to maintain tight oil markets. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Corn futures Since the start of 2022, corn prices have climbed by 71.34 USd/BU, or 12.03 percent, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Corn Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Saxo Bank Podcast: Natural Gas On Colder Weather, Wheat And Coffee Under Pressure, JPY Weaker And More

Gold rises in the wake of a retreating US dollar, potential rail strike weighs on US NGAS, Cotton futures under pressure

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.11.2022 17:07
Summary: The US dollar retreated from a recent high, cousin gold prices to end a four-day slide. US natural gas futures declined after jumping 7.5% in the previous session. Cotton futures continued to be under pressure from persistent demand worries Gold prices rise in the wake of a weaker USD As the dollar retreated from a recent high, gold prices surged above $1,740 an ounce on Tuesday, ending a four-day slide. Investors were waiting for the minutes of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting, which may provide insight into the timing of future US interest rate increases. The comments of individual Fed officials were also analyzed by traders. For example, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly cautioned against overtightening, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that she wants to see sustained declines in inflation before she can support a halt. The rate outlook has a significant impact on gold since it makes holding non-yielding metal more expensive, decreasing its appeal. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS declined after a 7.5% rise in the previous session As gas traders watched weather patterns, the delay in Freeport's restart, and a potential rail strike, US natural gas futures declined after jumping 7.5% in the previous session. The largest US rail union's members rejected a tentative contract agreement signed in September, increasing the likelihood of a year-end strike that could halt coal shipments and make power plants use more gas. Additionally, according to current forecasts, extremely cold weather is expected to arrive during the first week of December, which will increase demand for gas-powered heating. On the other hand, more gas is anticipated to be kept available for domestic use now that the restart of the Freeport LNG export facility has been postponed until mid-December while repairs are made to the damage caused by the explosion in June. US utilities added 64 bcf of gas to storage last week, according to EIA data, bringing gas stockpiles closer to the 3.651 tcf five-year average for this time of the year. NGAS Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton weighed down by concerns around demand Cotton futures continued to be under pressure from persistent demand worries resulting from difficult economic conditions and increased supplies, remaining close to a nearly 22-month low of last month and roughly 50% below their May peak. The US Department of Agriculture revealed larger-than-anticipated domestic production and lower worldwide demand forecasts for 2022–2023 in its most recent monthly report. A decline in the Southwest is more than compensated by increases elsewhere, resulting in a 1.5% increase in production in the United States, to 14.0 million bales. Additionally, it is anticipated that this month's worldwide cotton consumption will be 650,000 bales lower, with mill use in Pakistan and Bangladesh expected to be reduced by 300,000 bales. Cotton Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
WTI crude futures fell 5%, palladium futures touching 5-mont lows, coffee futures touching 16-month los

WTI crude futures fell 5%, palladium futures touching 5-mont lows, coffee futures touching 16-month los

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.11.2022 18:27
Summary: WTI crude futures touching January lows. Palladium futures are declining as China's COVID-19 situation heightens. Arabica coffee futures touching the lowest level in 16 month, WTI Crude oil touching 11 month lows As investors considered persisting demand concerns and tracked developments around the G7's price restriction on Russian oil, WTI crude futures fell over 5% to below $77 per barrel, approaching their lowest level since January. Markets have been on edge due to a deteriorating outlook for global demand, with top crude importer China potentially facing tighter coronavirus-induced restrictions due to an increase in infections and advanced economies, primarily the US and Europe, experiencing a decline in economic activity as a result of tighter financial conditions. The G7 also considered a price cap on Putin's oil above the current price of the crude grade to make it profitable for Russia to sell its crude and avoid a shortage of supplies on the global market. Prices were supported by expectations that OPEC would step up its market interventions in response to a decline in demand brought on by the recession. Additionally, EIA data revealed a much greater than anticipated decline in US inventories last week. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Palladium futures touching 5-month lows In line with other commodities, palladium futures dropped to $1,900 per ounce, edging closer to a 5-month low of $1,800 set on November 3rd as a worsening Covid-19 situation in China and more lockdowns weakened an already weak demand outlook. Prices for palladium are 40% lower than they were in March due to palladium's substitution by platinum, rising interest rates, and sluggish economic development. After four straight 75 bps rises, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, is anticipated to boost the fed funds rate by 50 basis points in December. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The palladium market is expected to be balanced or in deficit this year and next year, according to analysts who predict supply-demand balances. Palladium Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Coffee touching 16-month lows Arabica coffee futures on the ICE extended losses to $1.54 a pound, touching the lowest level in 16 months, as the outlook for the global supply is expected to continue good while the demand is anticipated to deteriorate due to the possibility of a recession. According to an analysis by Rabobank, Brazil's ample rainfall and increasing output in response to high prices since 2020, when demand growth was anticipated to be modest, will assist the global coffee market transition from a tiny deficit in 2022/23 to a surplus in the season that follows. A significant increase in arabica coffee entering warehouses with ICE approval also continued to be a bearish factor. According to the most recent data, ICE-certified coffee stocks were 468,291 bags as of November 15th, a significant increase from the 23-year low of 382,695 bags reached on November 3rd. Coffee Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
World Platinum Investment Council CEO: ""The Platinum Market Is Forecast To Be In Deficit"

Platinum futures weighed down by COVID-19 lockdowns in China, gasoline touching 5-week lows, wheat futures touching 3-month lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.11.2022 15:39
Summary: The supply side of the platinum market could experience a shortfall. Higher gasoline supply driving prices down. Wheat prices were under pressure from forecasts of plentiful supplies. Platinum demand looks dim As new outbreaks in top consumer China crushed hopes for a potential end to its zero-Covid policy, clouding the outlook for demand, platinum futures declined below the $1,000 per ounce barrier, sliding further from an eight-month high of roughly $1,050. According to statistics from the World Platinum Investment Council, the supply side of the platinum market could experience a shortfall of 219,000 ounces in 2023 as opposed to a surplus of 974,000 ounces in 2022. Beyond the reduction in supplies globally, there was ongoing concern regarding Russian exports. After South Africa, Russia is the second-largest producer of platinum worldwide. Platinum Jan ‘23 Futures Price Chart Gasoline hitting 5-week lows After a larger-than-expected inventory build last week allayed concerns about a tight market, gasoline futures continued to decline and fell to below $2.5 per gallon, moving closer to a five-week low hit below $2.4 earlier in the week. In contrast to market expectations for a smaller 383,000-barrel increase, the most recent EIA data showed that US gasoline stocks increased by 3.058 million barrels in the week ended November 18th, the largest weekly increase since mid-July. The report also revealed a 625,000 barrel drop in gasoline production, the first weekly decline since early October. RBOB Gasoline Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat touching 3-month lows The fourth week of November saw the lowest price for Chicago wheat futures in three months as benchmark wheat prices were under pressure from forecasts of plentiful supplies. After a time of supply uncertainty, Russia consented to a four-month extension of the UN-mediated agreement that secures a trade route for ships transporting Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea. According to Ukrainian authorities, since the agreement's inception on August 1st, the nation has been able to export more than 11 million tonnes of grain via ships, greatly allaying scarcity concerns for the following marketing year. In consequence, increased Black Sea supplies are expected to give US participants the opportunity to stockpile desperately needed goods in 2022–2033. As a result of improved production in Australia and Kazakhstan offsetting probable decreases in Argentina and the EU, figures from the USDA's WASDE report increased predictions for the world supply and ending stocks for the upcoming marketing year, contrary to expectations of a decline. Wheat Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Crude oil went up after news about missile, which landed in Poland. Black gold said to be affected by situation in China

Silver futures supported by constrained supplies, Brent Crude touching January lows, corn futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.11.2022 17:14
Summary: Silver supported by demand optimism and constrained supplies. Brent crude weighed down by lack of investor confidence. Corn futures up more than 12% in 2022. Silver trading near 5-month highs Near the five-month high of almost $22 that was set on November 14th, silver futures were trading at roughly $21.5 per ounce, supported by a combination of demand optimism and constrained supplies. White metal demand is anticipated to reach a new record high globally in 2022, spurred by post-pandemic industrial and physical investment needs. The long-term picture for the commodity's demand was further improved by the global governments' commitment to green technologies. Prices were also bolstered by indications of limited supply, as New York's COMEX inventories decreased by 70% to just over 1 million tonnes over the previous 18 months. Additionally, the London Bullion Market Association stockpiles dropped to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes in November for the tenth consecutive month. In addition to the demand-supply dynamics, the Federal Reserve's potential for a more gradual tightening of monetary policy has given silver bulls hope. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude fell more than 2% On Monday, Brent oil futures fell more than 2% below $82 a barrel, reaching their lowest levels since January as huge demonstrations against China's tight zero-COvid policy undermined investor confidence and the outlook for demand. Reports that the US has given Chevron Corp. permission to restart oil production in Venezuela put additional downward pressure on oil prices. The top crude importer China is experiencing Covid-related uncertainty, and growing concerns about a global economic downturn have seized the energy markets. This is the fourth week in a row that the international oil benchmark has fallen. The G7's intention to control the price of Russian oil continued to be followed by traders, but news of a high cap on the price allayed concerns that Russia would respond by reducing production. Investors are still being cautious ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on December 4 since it is anticipated that the major producers will maintain tight supply. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Corn has increased more than 12% in 2022 Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity shows that corn has increased 71.68 USd/BU or 12.08% since the start of 2022. Corn Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

Gold supported by a falling US dollar, NGAS fell in the wake of weaker demand expectations, Cotton touching 4-week lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.11.2022 19:15
Summary: Gold rose, recovering the majority of its losses from the previous session. In anticipation of weaker demand, US natural gas futures were trading down from a two-month high. Recession expectations weighing on cotton prices Gold futures rose on Tuesday As the dollar fell on Tuesday, gold rose beyond $1,750 an ounce, recovering the majority of its losses from the previous session. Investors were still determining the likely course of US monetary policy. After US Federal Reserve officials indicated that interest rates will continue to rise well into next year, the yellow metal fell by about 1% on Monday. However, after delivering four consecutive 75 basis point rate hikes, it is largely anticipated that the Fed would moderate the pace of its rate hike to 50 basis points in December. Investors anticipate numerous US economic releases this week as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday for new information regarding the central bank's plans to tighten monetary policy. The rate outlook has a significant impact on gold because it makes holding non-yielding bullion more expensive, decreasing its appeal. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS’s decline on weaker demand expecations In anticipation of weaker demand, US natural gas futures were trading at around $7.3/MMBtu, down from a nearly two-month high of $8/MMBtu reached on November 23. Recent weather predictions predict milder conditions over the following two weeks. Nevertheless, costs are anticipated to stay high due to expectations of a significant demand for heating during the winter. Investors continued to express anxiety about potential interruptions in the coal supply. The largest US rail union's members rejected a tentative contract agreement reached in September, increasing the likelihood of a year-end strike that could halt coal shipments and make power plants burn more gas. At the same time, Europe is clamoring for US exports after Russia threatened to further reduce supplies. The Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, which had to shut down due to a fire in June, anticipates starting to resume operations in mid-December. NGAS Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton touching 4-week lows On the back of declining demand brought on by worries about an impending global recession, rising supplies, and at their lowest level in over four weeks, cotton futures were trading at approximately 78 USd/Lb. The most recent US Department of Agriculture cotton projections for 2022–2023 showed reduced worldwide demand forecasts for 2022–2023 and a marginal increase in global cotton production from 2021/22. With 14.0 million bales produced, the US, the world's largest cotton exporter, saw production rise by around 1.5% as rises elsewhere more than made up for a decline in the Southwest. A 300,000-bale reduction in mill use in Pakistan and Bangladesh is expected to result in a 650,000-bale decrease in worldwide cotton consumption this month. Cotton Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Yen (JPY) Takes A Stab At Resilience, The Grains Sector Has Survived Well

WTI Crude oil prices supported by a fall in US supply, palladium futures touching 5-month lows, wheat futures touching 3-month lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.11.2022 19:06
Summary: US oil inventories decreased by almost 8 million barrels last week. A worsening Covid-19 situation in China further weakened demand outlook for palladium. Wheat futures were under pressure from ongoing shipments out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports. WTI Crude up for their 3rd consecutive session On Wednesday, WTI crude futures increased for the third session in a row, approaching $79 a barrel as an industry report indicated a significant decline in US crude stocks and a forthcoming OPEC+ meeting stoked concerns about additional production restrictions. According to API statistics, US oil inventories decreased by almost 8 million barrels last week, far more than the predicted decline of 2.487 million barrels and following a decrease of 4.819 million barrels the week before. When OPEC+ meets on December 4 to decide on output strategy, there is speculation that the cartel will further reduce supply to counteract market weakness. On the demand side, the news that China would increase vaccination among its senior citizens helped to push up oil prices. This comes as pressure mounts on the world's top crude importer to pursue economic reopening in the wake of protracted protests. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Palladium demand outlook is bleak In line with other commodities, palladium futures dropped to below $1,900 per ounce, getting closer to a 5-month low of $1,800 set on November 3rd as a worsening Covid-19 situation in China and more lockdowns weakened an already weak demand outlook. Prices for palladium are 40% lower than they were in March due to palladium's substitution by platinum, rising interest rates, and sluggish economic development. After four straight 75 bps rises, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, is anticipated to boost the fed funds rate by 50 basis points in December. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The palladium market is projected to be balanced or in deficit this year and next year, according to analysts who predict supply-demand balances. Palladium Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Wheat futures touching 3-month lows Chicago wheat futures were under pressure from ongoing shipments out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, which led to a further decline to below $7.7 in late November, the lowest level in more than three months. After a time of supply uncertainty, Russia consented to a four-month extension of the UN-mediated agreement that secures a trade route for ships transporting Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea. According to Ukrainian authorities, since the agreement's inception on August 1st, the nation has been able to export more than 11 million tonnes of grain via ships, greatly allaying scarcity concerns for the following marketing year. In consequence, increased Black Sea supplies are expected to give US participants the opportunity to stockpile desperately needed goods in 2022–2033. Meanwhile, US farmers may decide to allocate farmland to wheat instead of soybeans due to lower expectations for China's soybean demand amid widespread lockdown protests, which would also increase the supply. Wheat Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
The Commodities Feed: Further oil supply disruptions

After An Inventory Distribution Breakdown The Oil Price Witnessed A Sell-Off

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.02.2023 09:30
The oil price has printed a fresh intraday low at $75.80 amid a risk-off market mood ahead of US NFP data. West Texas is auctioning in a markdown phase after Wyckoff’s Inventory Distribution breakdown. The 50-period EMA is acting as a major barrier for the oil bulls. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, has refreshed its day’s low at $75.80 in the early European session. The oil price is facing the heat as western central banks have hiked their interest rates further to tame soaring inflation. The asset is expected to test Thursday’s low around $75.30. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is displaying a lackluster performance after reaching to near 101.55 and is awaiting the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh impetus. On a four-hour scale, the oil price witnessed a sell-off after an Inventory Distribution breakdown. The inventory distribution in a minor range of $79.50-82.67 indicates a shift of inventory from institutional investors to retail participants. After an inventory distribution breakdown, the asset is in Wyckoff’s markdown phase post a throwback move to near $80.00. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $78.65 has acted as a major barricade for the oil price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 and is indicating more weakness. Read next: USD/JPY Pair Is Trading At 128.48 The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.71$| FXMAG.COM After a sheer decline, a pullback move to near the 10-period EMA around $76.65 will be an optimal selling opportunity, which will drag the asset toward February 2 low at $75.15 followed by the horizontal support placed around January 5 low at $73.00. Alternatively, a rebound move above February 1 high at $79.87 will drive the asset toward January 23 low at $81.19. A breach above the latter will expose the asset for more upside toward January 18 high at $82.67. WTI four-hour chart  
Positive Shift in Inflation Structure: Core Inflation Falls in Hungary

Disinflationary Narrative Mispriced as Weak US Dollar Boosts Commodities and Inflation Expectations

Kelvin Wong Kelvin Wong 14.07.2023 16:02
Current up moves in long-duration equities and fixed income came at the expense of a weaker US dollar. A persistent weak US dollar may lead to an upside revival in commodities prices. Inflationary expectations may creep up again due to higher oil/commodities prices. Disinflationary narrative seems premature and may be mispriced.   Market participants have taken a “disinflation ecstasy pill”, bidding up long-duration equities and fixed income in the past two sessions after the latest June US CPI data came in below expectations with the headline print dipped to 3% year-on-year, its slowest rate of growth seen in two years. The core consumer inflation rate (excluding food & energy) also slowed to 4.8% year-on-year from 5.3% recorded in May and dipped below the current Fed Funds rate of 5% to 5.25%. In terms of week-to-date performances as of 13 July, higher beta and long-duration equities outperformed, and the Nasdaq 100 rallied by +3.56%, just 7.7% away from its November 2022 all-time high. Over in the fixed income space, last week’s losses were almost recouped; iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded a week-to-date gain of 2.84%, iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (+2.61%), and iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (+2.44%). This latest bout of “disinflationary optimism” has revived the “Fed Pivot” narrative where participants are now anticipating that the upcoming July FOMC meeting will likely see the last interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) to end this current cycle of monetary policy tightening in the US and negate the current “higher interest rates for a longer period” guidance advocated by Fed officials.   US Dollar Index’s major downtrend was reinforced via a break below 100.95 key support   Fig 1:  US Dollar Index medium-term and major trend as of 14 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The current disinflationary theme play has come at the expense of a weaker US dollar that sank to a 15-month low, the US Dollar Index has tumbled by -2.52% for this week, set for its worst weekly performance since the week of 7 November 2022 as it broke below the key medium-term support of 100.95. Right now, there are second-order effects at play where significant global financial market movements are likely to spiral into the real economy in the months ahead. A weaker US dollar may translate to higher commodities prices as most commodities; physical and paper (futures contracts) are priced in US dollars. This above-mentioned linkage of a weaker US dollar to higher commodities prices seems to be emerging in the financial markets; the week-to-date performance of WTI crude oil futures is up by +4.1% and a broader basket of commodities as measured by the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund has rallied by 3.6% for this week.     Inflationary expectations may start to creep up     Fig 2:  WTI crude oil correlation with US 5-YR & 10-YR breakeven inflation rates as of 13 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Commodity prices such as oil have a high degree of direct correlation with forward-looking inflationary expectations. In the past three years, the price actions of WTI crude oil have moved in lock-step with the US Treasury’s 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates (a measurement of inflationary expectations). If WTI crude oil can maintain its current upward trajectory, inflationary expectations may creep higher from this juncture.   Potential upside momentum in commodities may spark another ascend in US CPI       Fig 3: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund major trend with US CPI as of 13 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In addition, from a momentum perspective, an imminent trend change may start to take shape for commodities prices after close to one year of downtrend since June 2022 using Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) as a commodities benchmark. The current weekly MACD trend indicator of the DBC has just flashed a bullish crossover signal below its centreline that suggested that the major downtrend of DBC in place since the June 2022 high may have ended which in turn increases the odds of a bullish reversal for commodities prices. A similar MACD bullish crossover observation on the DBC occurred in early June 2020 that spiralled into the real economy where inflationary pressures; headline and core US CPI started their ascend. Therefore, a potential uptick in inflationary expectations coupled with the current positive momentum in commodities prices may put a halt to the current inflationary slowdown trajectory seen in the latest US CPI prints. The ongoing disinflationary narrative may be premature and mispriced at this juncture.
Assessing the Future of Aluminium: Key Areas to Watch

The Weaker US Dollar and Potential Upside in Commodities Spark Inflationary Expectations

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 17.07.2023 09:33
Current up moves in long-duration equities and fixed income came at the expense of a weaker US dollar. A persistent weak US dollar may lead to an upside revival in commodities prices. Inflationary expectations may creep up again due to higher oil/commodities prices. Disinflationary narrative seems premature and may be mispriced.   Market participants have taken a “disinflation ecstasy pill”, bidding up long-duration equities and fixed income in the past two sessions after the latest June US CPI data came in below expectations with the headline print dipped to 3% year-on-year, its slowest rate of growth seen in two years. The core consumer inflation rate (excluding food & energy) also slowed to 4.8% year-on-year from 5.3% recorded in May and dipped below the current Fed Funds rate of 5% to 5.25%. In terms of week-to-date performances as of 13 July, higher beta and long-duration equities outperformed, and the Nasdaq 100 rallied by +3.56%, just 7.7% away from its November 2022 all-time high. Over in the fixed income space, last week’s losses were almost recouped; iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded a week-to-date gain of 2.84%, iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (+2.61%), and iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (+2.44%). This latest bout of “disinflationary optimism” has revived the “Fed Pivot” narrative where participants are now anticipating that the upcoming July FOMC meeting will likely see the last interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) to end this current cycle of monetary policy tightening in the US and negate the current “higher interest rates for a longer period” guidance advocated by Fed officials.     US Dollar Index’s major downtrend was reinforced via a break below 100.95 key support   Fig 1:  US Dollar Index medium-term and major trend as of 14 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The current disinflationary theme play has come at the expense of a weaker US dollar that sank to a 15-month low, the US Dollar Index has tumbled by -2.52% for this week, set for its worst weekly performance since the week of 7 November 2022 as it broke below the key medium-term support of 100.95. Right now, there are second-order effects at play where significant global financial market movements are likely to spiral into the real economy in the months ahead. A weaker US dollar may translate to higher commodities prices as most commodities; physical and paper (futures contracts) are priced in US dollars. This above-mentioned linkage of a weaker US dollar to higher commodities prices seems to be emerging in the financial markets; the week-to-date performance of WTI crude oil futures is up by +4.1% and a broader basket of commodities as measured by the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund has rallied by 3.6% for this week.   Inflationary expectations may start to creep up   Fig 2:  WTI crude oil correlation with US 5-YR & 10-YR breakeven inflation rates as of 13 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Commodity prices such as oil have a high degree of direct correlation with forward-looking inflationary expectations. In the past three years, the price actions of WTI crude oil have moved in lock-step with the US Treasury’s 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates (a measurement of inflationary expectations). If WTI crude oil can maintain its current upward trajectory, inflationary expectations may creep higher from this juncture.   Potential upside momentum in commodities may spark another ascend in US CPI   Fig 3: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund major trend with US CPI as of 13 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In addition, from a momentum perspective, an imminent trend change may start to take shape for commodities prices after close to one year of downtrend since June 2022 using Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) as a commodities benchmark. The current weekly MACD trend indicator of the DBC has just flashed a bullish crossover signal below its centreline that suggested that the major downtrend of DBC in place since the June 2022 high may have ended which in turn increases the odds of a bullish reversal for commodities prices. A similar MACD bullish crossover observation on the DBC occurred in early June 2020 that spiralled into the real economy where inflationary pressures; headline and core US CPI started their ascend. Therefore, a potential uptick in inflationary expectations coupled with the current positive momentum in commodities prices may put a halt to the current inflationary slowdown trajectory seen in the latest US CPI prints. The ongoing disinflationary narrative may be premature and mispriced at this juncture.      
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WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Short-Term Uptrend Faces Potential Pull-Back

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 04.09.2023 11:04
Erased prior two weeks of consecutive losing streaks to trade a current year-to-date closing high of US$86.31 per barrel printed on last Friday, 1 September. Price actions are oscillating within short-term and medium-term uptrend phases. Hourly technical indicators (RSI & Bollinger Bands Bandwidth) are suggesting the risk of an imminent minor pull-back in price actions after last week’s strong upside reversal. Watch the key short-term pivotal resistance at US$87.25 per barrel. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Potential bullish reversal to resume medium-term uptrend” published on 21 August 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) have managed to snap its prior two weeks of consecutive losing streak and cleared above the US$84.90 resistance as highlighted in our previous report. Also, it recorded a weekly gain of +7.35% for the week ended last Friday, 1 September.     Rallied to a 10-month high Fig 1:  West Texas Oil medium-term trend as of 4 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In addition, last Friday’s bullish momentum has allowed it to surpass its recent medium-term swing high of US$84.92 per barrel printed on 10 August 2023 and notched a current year-to-date closing high of US$86.31 on last Friday, also its highest level since 15 November 2022. In addition, current price actions have managed to trade above their respective 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages which indicates that West Texas Oil is oscillating within short-term and medium-term uptrend phases. Risk of an imminent minor pull-back in price actions Fig 2:  West Texas Oil minor short-term trend as of 4 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)       However, the current up move of +10.7% from its 23 August 2023 low of US$78.03 to its 1 September 2023 high of US$86.36 seems overstretched which suggests that the current short-term uptrend phase is due for a potential minor pull-back/setback. Two key technical conditions are advocating this potential minor pull-back/setback scenario for West Texas Oil within its ongoing short to medium-term uptrend phases. Firstly, the hourly RSI oscillator has exploded to an extreme overbought condition of 84.53, its highest level since 2 April 2023. Secondly, the hourly Bollinger Bands Bandwidth (%) has increased to a two-week high which indicates a significant expansion in short-term volatility. An expansion in short-term volatility as indicated by the widening of the hourly Bollinger Bands Bandwidth (%) tends to lead to a normalization of such a heightened level of volatility in the next few trading sessions which supports an imminent potential minor pull-back/setback for price actions. Watch the US$87.25 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the potential minor pull-back/setback scenario for West Texas Oil towards the intermediate supports at US$84.90 and US$83.60. However, a clearance above US$87.25 invalidates the minor bearish tone for a continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence to see the next resistance at US$89.10 (Fibonacci retracement/extension cluster; 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the major downtrend from 7 March 2022 high to 4 May 2023 low & 0.618 Fibonacci extension of the medium-term uptrend from 28 June 2023 low to 10 August 2023 high projected to 23 August 2023 low). Content
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Taming the Oil Surge: Analysis of WTI Crude Oil Trends and Potential Reversal Scenarios

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 26.01.2024 14:42
WTI crude oil has started to evolve into a short-term uptrend phase reinforced by the recent liquidity infusion by China’s central bank, PBoC upcoming 50 bps cut on the RRR. The current 5-day rally of WTI crude oil has reached a key medium-term resistance zone of US$79.00/79.40 with a short-term overbought condition. At the risk of a minor mean reversion decline with intermediate supports at US$75.30 and US$74.80. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Sideways within a potential minor bottoming configuration” published on 16 January 2024. Click here for a recap. Benchmark oil prices have bottomed and traded higher since the start of this week as the West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) had rallied by +4.9% week-to-date at this time of the writing, its best weekly gain since the 9 October 2023. On top of the rising geopolitical risk premium that is supporting firmer oil prices from the ongoing tensions in the Middle East region and Red Sea shipping route, the additional liquidity infusion from China’s central bank (PBoC) with an upcoming 50 bps cut on commercial banks’ reserve requirement ratio has also triggered an indirect “demand-pull” catalyst on oil prices. CTA funds may have contributed to the current bullish momentum frenzy All in all, these factors have created short-term reflexive positive feedback into the oil market reinforced by possible speculative CTA funds that run on momentum-driven models that piled into oil futures with a bullish bias. The price actions of the benchmark Brent and WTI crude oil have pierced above their respective 50-day moving averages on Monday, 22 January and have capped their prices previously since late October 2023; positive momentum begets positive momentum. At the risk of a minor mean reversion decline below US$78.40 Fig 1:  West Texas Oil medium-term trend as of 26 Jan 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)   Fig 2:  West Texas Oil minor short-term trend as of 26 Jan 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In the lens of technical analysis, the recent push-up of West Texas Oil since the start of this week has led its hourly RSI momentum indicator to hover close to an extremely overbought level of around 74 in place since 12 January 2024. This current overbought condition has also taken form as its price action is now coming close to a key medium-term resistance zone of US$78.00/78.40 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 17 January 2024 low & close to the key 200-day moving average). Therefore, the odds have increased for a potential minor mean reversion decline to retrace a portion of the ongoing short-term uptrend phase with the next intermediate supports coming in at US$75.75/75.30 and US$74.80. On the flip side, clearance above the US$78.40 pivotal resistance invalidates the mean reversion decline scenario for a continuation of the bullish trend towards the next intermediate resistance at US$79.75 in the first step.

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