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Jonny Hart speaks to APAC Senior Market Analyst Jeffrey Halley about news impacting the market and the week ahead.

It’s June already and a blockbuster week for data releases around the world. First of all, we take a look back at last Friday’s impressive US equity close. Jeff discusses its drivers, its threats, and potentially, its longevity. Then it’s over to Asian equity markets today which are also enjoying a banner day.

US Stocks And China

 

The US Friday session and also covid-zero developments in China over the weekend are driving “most” stock markets higher. Potential banana skin is looming though, with Brent crude rising above $120.00 a barrel in Asia today. Jeff looks at the oil market, what’s driving the price increase, and its potential impact on market sentiment this week.

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Holidays And US Non-farm Payrolls

There are a number of holidays this week, starting with

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G-7 And Chinese Lockdown Are Moving Markets. High Prices And Infaltion Are Still There. US Dollar (USD) Is Doing Is Best | Oanda: "Equities dip, dollar up on China nerves"

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 09.05.2022 11:39
China tightens lockdown in Shanghai Asian equity markets are off to a bad start today, although the US dollar has been steadily rising versus Asian currencies, and the risk-sentiment barometers, the Australian and New Zealand dollars are having a tough day at the office. There is no one theme that is causing Asian equities to crate, but if I had to pick one, it would be that concerns over the depth of the China slowdown are accelerating, with virus restrictions tightening in Beijing and apparently, Shanghai once again.   The weekend G-7 meeting may also be darkening the mood, agreeing to enact a phasing out of Russian oil imports. The important words here are “phasing out,” which was enough to get Japan on board. The language was loose enough to have had little impact on oil prices today, which have fallen today as China slowdown nerves outweigh short-term supply shocks. The G-7 measures are more forward-looking. Still, Asia has a very high dependency on imported energy and the G-7 announcement is certainly not positive for Asia’s growth going forward, implying higher for longer energy prices.   Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 428,000 jobs, not far from median forecasts. The headline number was not enough to juice up the Fed tightening narrative but was definitely not going to allow any hopeful rate hike doves their day in the sun either. The result was a gentle continuation pattern. US equities eased, the US dollar ground higher, and US yields also ground higher. The hump in the US yield curve is now gone with the 2-year to 30-year now back to positive and the 10-year yield now comfortably above 3.0% at 3.15%.   So, net-net, we are still in high inflation tightening Fed, China slowdown, higher energy, and food price environment, with the added uncertainty surrounding Russia’s war on Ukraine, which Vladimir Putin may make official today at Moscow’s May 9th parade. Little surprise, therefore, that Asian markets don’t really want to play today.   Shortly we will receive the China April Trade data. It comes as new home sales plunged by 33.0% over last week’s holiday period, and bankers seized a New York property of a defaulting China property developer according to Bloomberg. China’s private developer leverage saga has been knocked off the headlines but remains a slow-moving trainwreck that is also being exacerbated by the covid-zero policy. Forecasts for the Trade Balance are for a slight gain over March to USD 50.65 billion. There are downside risks in the import component which could flatter the headline, even as exports remain robust. Lower exports or imports or both will likely give the bears more fresh salmon for dinner.   Later today, Indonesia releases its April inflation and trade data. Expectations are for an increase of 0.80% MoM, and 2.60% YoY, while the trade data should be robust, thanks to economic reopening and resource demand. A much higher inflation rate will increase the pressure on Bank Indonesia to hasten its reluctant hiking timetable. BI is struggling to cap USD/IDR at 14,500.00 at the moment and a high inflation print will see another wave of selling hit the rupiah.   Later this week, we have China and India CPI where the risks lie in opposite directions. A lower CPI than 1.50% YoY will increase the pressure on the government and PBOC to hit their stimulus buttons. That could be a short-term boon for mainland equities, but actions speak louder than words, as even China is finding out. After an unscheduled rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India, if India’s inflation moves higher than 7.0% on Friday, the pressure will be on for the RBI to act again. That may give some strength to the rupee but is unlikely to be bullish for local equities.   We can expect some volatility in Philippine markets today as well with the presidential election taking place. It does look at this stage that this marvellous country will shake my faith in democracy and elect a Marcos as President, and a Duterte as Vice-President. Yes, you read those names correctly and yes, politics in Asia as a family business is sadly alive and well. I’m not sure how international investors will view that outcome, but I suspect the BSP’s work is about to get harder in the months ahead. For me, if a Marcos is back in power, I’m looking to get long luxury handbag and shoe producers, who preferably accept cash and cryptos for payment. Let the people eat cake.   In the DM space, US CPI data on Wednesday is the week’s highlight. Like the Non-Farm Payrolls, the outcome is binary. A much higher CPI print equals more Fed tightening equals a higher US dollar and lower equities. A much lower CPI equals a relief rally and a correction lower for the US dollar. CPI prints across the Western Europe heavyweights and the UK throughout the week could also ratchet tightening pressure on the ECB and BOE, although I think this will be in vain as the needs of a war-time economy rightly take precedence. That likely means euro and sterling are going to finish the week lower than where they started today. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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Crude Oil Jumps, (XAUUSD) Gold Price Under Pressure | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 12.05.2022 16:36
Oil markets remain volatile Oil prices spiked overnight, led by a combination of Shanghai reopening, potential gas supply disruption through Ukraine, Russian sanctions on EU energy entities and a plunge in gasoline inventories in the US. Brent crude rose 5.90% to USD 107.50, and WTI leapt 6.60% higher to USD 105.50 a barrel. In Asia, the risk aversion selling sweeping other asset classes in Asia today has pushed oil prices slightly lower. Brent crude fell 1.20% to USD 106.25, and WTI fell 1.10% to USD 104.40 a barrel. The continuing squeeze on US gasoline, diesel and other distillates is another supportive factor With tensions seemingly ratcheting higher after Russia sanctioned ex-Gazprom JVs in Europe, along with reduced trans-Ukraine pipeline flows, there is limited downside for oil prices in the near term. The continuing squeeze on US gasoline, diesel and other distillates is another supportive factor. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Brent crude has formed a nice trendline support going back to January 2022 at USD 101.50, while WTI has formed the same pattern at USD 98.50 a barrel. Resistance remains at USD 114.75 and USD 111.50 a barrel respectively. Failure of the respective USD 101.50 and USD 98.50 trendline supports is likely to provoke a much stronger test of USD 100.00 for Brent, and USD 95.00 for WTI this time around. Eastern European tensions mean this is not my base case, however. I am sticking to my broader calls for the past two months. Brent crude remaining between USD 100.00 to USD 120.00, and WTI between USD 95.00 and USD 115.00 a barrel. Gold survives another day Gold probed the downside overnight, testing support in the USD 1835.00 an ounce region, before rallying to a 0.75% gain, closing at USD 1852.00 an ounce as US yields fell and risk-hedging flows appeared. In Asia gold is relatively quiet compared to the volatility seen in other asset classes today. It has edged 0.17% lower to USD 1848.20 an ounce. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Gold’s support critical near-term support remains the triangle apex at USD 1835.00, the breakout of which in early February, signalled the gold rally to USD 2060.00 an ounce. Its importance is confirmed by the nearby 200-day moving average (DMA), today at USD 1836.00 an ounce. A daily close under USD 1835.00 would be an ominous technical development. Gold has resistance at USD 1860.00 and USD 1884.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average Failure of USD 1835.00 sets up a test of support at USD 1820.00 and then potentially USD 1780.00 an ounce. Failure of the latter suggests a deeper correction to USD 1700.00. Gold has resistance at USD 1860.00 and USD 1884.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. If the risk-aversion selloff sweeping other asset classes, notably cryptos, accelerates, gold does stand to benefit. Especially is haven buyers also pile into US bond markets, pushing the US yield curve lower. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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Striking US Stocks Performance, Crude Oil (BRENT) Nearing $120, Chinese Covid-Zero Influences Markets And More Highlighted In Market Insights Podcast (Episode 335) | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 30.05.2022 10:37
Jonny Hart speaks to APAC Senior Market Analyst Jeffrey Halley about news impacting the market and the week ahead. It’s June already and a blockbuster week for data releases around the world. First of all, we take a look back at last Friday’s impressive US equity close. Jeff discusses its drivers, its threats, and potentially, its longevity. Then it’s over to Asian equity markets today which are also enjoying a banner day. US Stocks And China   The US Friday session and also covid-zero developments in China over the weekend are driving “most” stock markets higher. Potential banana skin is looming though, with Brent crude rising above $120.00 a barrel in Asia today. Jeff looks at the oil market, what’s driving the price increase, and its potential impact on market sentiment this week. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Holidays And US Non-farm Payrolls There are a number of holidays this week, starting with US markets today, then Greater China is dragon boating on Friday, and the UK has two days off at the end of the week. Happy Jubilee Your Majesty. We discuss how holidays can impact markets. Finally, it’s a wrap of the heavy-duty data calendar across Asia and the US this week, culminating in the US Non-Farm Payrolls. Jeff highlights also, something that markets have been ignoring up until now, the start this week, of Federal Reserve Quantitative tightening. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

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