what is investing?

Asian markets fall, ex-China Wall Street suffered another day of recession fears overnight, with equities slumping once again, relying on Bostic’s comments to salve the wounds and cap US yield rises and the US dollar rally. The S&P 500 retreated by 3.20%, with the Nasdaq slumping by 4.29%, and the Dow Jones losing 1.97%. No sector was spared, notably, and despite high inflation, cash is increasingly becoming King. The rot has stopped in Asia, with US futures attempting to claw back some of the overnight losses as the bottom-feeders come out to play. S&P 500 futures have risen by 0.60%, Nasdaq futures have jumped by 0.95%, and Dow futures have gained 0.45%.   In Asia, equity markets initially tumbled in response to the Wall Street moves, in a rerun of yesterday. However, the recovery by US futures this morning seems to have taken the edge of the sell-off, with Asian markets recouping some of their earlier losses. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is now down just 0.44%, with South Korea’s Kospi down 0.47%,   Meanwhile, after a tough session yesterday, the intraday rally in sentiment has pushed mainland China exchanges well into positive territory. The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 have rallied by 1.0%. Hong Kong was pummelled earlier today but has also recovered somewhat, but it remains 2.25% lower for the day.   In regional markets, Singapore is still down by 1.20%, while Kuala Lumpur is unchanged, and Jakarta has slumped by 2.90% led by resource stocks. Taipei has retreated by 1.65%, while Manila is down 1.0% post-election, with Bangkok managing a 0.30% gain. Australian markets are also in retreat, the ASX 200 and All Ordinaries falling by 1.30%.   What makes the session odd is that markets with a high sensitivity to the China slowdown are the worst performing in Asia today, but mainland equities have rallied. The cynic in me suspects that China’s “national team” are busy today supporting the market, especially as covid-zero policies remain in force and nerves are rising around mainland property developers once again.   European markets will struggle to construct a bullish case today as well, also President Putin not declaring a was on Ukraine at yesterday’s May Day parades could be a straw to grasp. The question is really whether the bounce in US equity futures today is the start of a recovery or merely a corrective bounce to short-term oversold indicators. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Journey 1 & 2 Return to GWENT! CD PROJEKT RED today announced that both the first and second season of the Journey progression mode have returned to GWENT: The Witcher Card Game, featuring brand new rewards, on a permanent basis. This reintroduction coincides with Patch 10.5, also available now. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM   As with their original releases, both Season 1 'Geralt' and Season 2 'Ciri' will be available to players for free as well as via an optional Premium tier. All originally included vanities come part and parcel with both Journeys, but they will also be joined by brand-new unlockable rewards such as auras, cardbacks, trinkets, music, and trophies. Players who did not previously purchase or play these seasons will be able to unlock all items — old and new — by completing contracts. Those who previously purchased or played Journeys 1 & 2 can unlock new items by completing contracts, without needing to make any additional purchases, and will also be able to pick up right where they left off during their first playthrough.     When originally launched, the first and second season of Journey were available for a limited period of three months. With their reintroduction, both seasons will be available permanently, giving players an infinite amount of time to see all they have to offer. The character-specific stories will also be returning, available in their entirety from the start — so players who missed out on the stories of Geralt & Dandelion, as well as Ciri & Vesemir, will be able to discover each one for themselves this time around.   Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Alongside the return of the first two Journeys, Patch 10.5 was also introduced to GWENT, which features general balance changes and is available for free on all supported platforms. You can find out more details by reading the official patch notes.   GWENT: The Witcher Card Game is available for free on PC via GOG.COM and Steam, Apple M1 Macs running macOS, as well as on Android and iOS. For more information on GWENT, visit playgwent.com. Source: CD Projekt

Summary: Earnings report caused WMT shares to fall sharply. Rising prices causing unexpected operating costs. Walmart earnings leaving investors bearish On Tuesday Walmart released their first quarter earnings report, which fell short of market expectations. In addition the retail giant cut its full year profit forecast as Walmart feels the consequences of rising costs. Read next: (TWTR) Musk Twitter Takeover Bid On Hold - What’s It Going To Be Elon Musk?  Walmarts EPS fell short of analyst expectations, and additionally indicated that they expect to see a 1% drop in revenue for the 2023 financial year. CEO Doug McMilon indicated that although the results were unexpected, they are a reflection of the current market environment and the rising inflation, especially in food and fuel, were main drivers of unexpected operating costs. Pre-Market trading saw Walmarts shares fall by 6.75%. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Walmart Share Price Chart Sources: thestreet.com, finance.yahoo.com

The US retail sales report for April is very solid and points to a willingness amongst households to run down accumulated savings to maintain lifestyles at a time when inflation is hurting real income growth. It fully backs the case for a sharp recovery in GDP growth in 2Q and a series of 50bp rate hikes from the Federal Reserve Learn more on ING Economics Restaurants and dining contributed positively to US April retail sales 29% Increase in US retail sales since January 2020   Households happy to spend US retail sales rose 0.9% month-on-month in April, not quite as strong as the 1% consensus expectation, but there were substantial upward revisions for March to 1.4% MoM growth from the 0.5% rate initially reported. Moreover, the "core" figures that better match up with broader consumer spending trends were much better than expected. The control group that excludes volatile food, gasoline, food service and building material rose 1% (consensus 0.7%) after a 1.1% increase in March (originally reported as -0.1%). The details show motor vehicle and parts sales rose 2.2%, which is quite disappointing given unit auto sales data posted a 7.2% MoM rise to 14.29mn in April and prices were significantly higher. Maybe we will see more upward revisions down the line or timing issues may mean they feed through into May’s figure. Gasoline station sales fell 2.7% due to slightly lower prices – remember the retail sales report is a nominal dollar value figure. Food & beverage stores, building materials and sporting goods all saw modest falls, but this was more than offset by a 4% increase in miscellaneous stores, a 2.1% increase in non-store retailers, a 1.1% increase at department stores and a 2% increase in eating and drinking place. US retail sales performance by component Source: Macrobond, ING Households are prepared to run down some savings This is an impressive outcome given consumer confidence has been hit hard by the fact wages are not keeping pace with the increases in the cost of living. Nonetheless, employment is rising and household wealth has increased substantially during the pandemic thanks to accumulated savings (in part down to huge fiscal support) and soaring asset prices. Today’s report suggests household appear content to run down some of those savings to maintain lifestyles. People movement has fully recovered after Omicron wave Source: Macrobond, ING 3%+GDP growth on the cards for 2Q 2022 This is also borne out by data showing big improvement in people movement around retail and recreation areas (see chart above on google mobility data), surging restaurant dining and a recovery in air passenger numbers following the Covid Omicron wave. This gives us more confidence in our 2Q GDP forecast of 3-3.5% annualized growth. In an environment of 3.6% unemployment and 8.3% inflation this supports the case for a series of 50bp rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. TagsUS Spending Retail sales GDP Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary: DJIA sees an overall increase on Tuesday. DEI Crypto loses is 1-to-1 US Dow Jones index rallies on Tuesday amidst retailers earning announcements Since the market opened on Tuesday, the Dow Jones has rallied almost 1%. This increase comes as U.S retail stocks beat investor estimates. Although Walmart's (WMT) stock fell after they made their earnings announcement on Tuesday, other retail stocks such as Home Depot, JD.com (JD), Sea (SE) and On Holding (ONON) saw gains causing an overall increase in the index. DJIA Price Chart Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Cryptocurrency DEI faces big losses on Tuesday In the current wider economic market, it has become clear to investors that cryptocurrency prices are in fact correlated to events on the stock market. UST and Luna have faced huge losses recently and another crypto seems to be following suit, DEI. DEI has just lost its 1-to-1 peg with the US Dollar and has lost 20% on the cryptocurrency market today. This fall created a mismatch and DEI’s collateral ratio dropped more than 40%, this makes the redemption of DEI coins due to the lack of capital backing the stable coin. The creators of DEI Deus Finance have suspended the coin redemption in an attempt to stabilize the coin's price. DEI Price Chart Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com

Summary:  Risk sentiment remained strong in the US yesterday, as the major indices closed strongly at a more than one-week high on a day that saw both a strong US Retail Sales report for April and largest US retailer Walmart’s stock punished by the most in a single day since 1987 on a weak profit forecast. Fed Chair Powell said that the Fed won't hesitate to raise rates above neutral if necessary, helping to lift the entire US yield curve and perhaps helping to cool sentiment overnight.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - S&P 500 futures pushed higher yesterday closing the recent short-term selloff cycle that started last Monday but are trading a bit softer this morning around the 4,075 level. US retail sales yesterday showed that the US consumer is still alive and comments from Home Depot’s CEO suggest that the US housing market is still strong despite recent higher mortgage rates with tight supply of homes to last several years. Overall, the dynamics are still the same with tighter financial conditions ahead and hawkish comments yesterday from several Fed members suggest our defensive stance on US equities is correct. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - Stoxx 50 futures closed above its 50-day moving average that we highlighted as the key focus point for the market in yesterday’s quick take. This is the first time since 20 April when technology stocks were staging a comeback with risk appetite before everything turned lower again. If Stoxx 50 futures can manage to stay above this moving average, there might be enough energy for a test of the 3,800. European car sales figures are out this morning and they are still weak which might add a bit of negative pressure among carmakers and car parts suppliers. EURUSD – strong risk sentiment and a weaker US dollar clearly go hand in hand, as yesterday’s market action demonstrated, but the euro got an extra boost from ECB governing council member Klaas Knot saying that the ECB shouldn’t exclude 50-basis point hikes from the menu of options. This drove a strong boost in ECB rate expectations, with end-2022 now priced for a +0.45% policy rate, 10 bps higher than the previous day. EURUSD traded up through 1.0500, a bullish reversal as that was a sticking point on the way down. Still, very heavy lifting would be needed to turn the bearish tide, with next resistance at the prior pivot higher near 1.0640, while more like 1.0800-1.0850+ would be needed to suggest a structural reversal. A new sell-off in risk sentiment will test the degree to which the latest hawkish tile from a growing number of ECB members weighs on the EURUSD exchange rate. USDJPY and JPY pairs – watching JPY crosses and USDJPY closely after US treasury yields jumped yesterday, especially at the long end of the curve, to which the JPY is traditionally most sensitive. Japan’s Q1 GDP estimate out overnight was better than anticipated as nominal GDP rose +0.1% and the economy (in real terms) contracted less than expected. In the JPY crosses, we have seen a wild ride on the recent swings in risk sentiment that now have pairs like EURJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY back near important retracement levels after steep sell-offs last week. These will likely tilt lower if bond yields stay calm and we see renewed risk aversion. Otherwise, the Bank of Japan will likely only come under fresh pressure to alter its policy if the USDJPY rate jumps to strong new highs and, for example, if global oil prices do likewise, increasing cost-of-living in Japan, etc. Gold (XAUUSD) trades lower after Fed chair Powell said the Fed will keep raising rates until inflation is brought under control. His comments helped lift inflation adjusted US Treasury yields with the 10-year real yield rising to 0.25%. The weaker dollar yesterday also helped boost risk appetite with stocks being the main recipients of these flows. For now, the bears remain in control, especially after the rejection yesterday at $1838, the 200-day moving average on XAUUSD. Silver (XAGUSD) meanwhile enjoyed some tailwind from recovering industrial metals with the XAUXAG falling to 83.90 after hitting a 22-month high of 88.5 last week. Crude oil (OILUKJUL22 & OILUSJUN22) tried but failed to break higher on Tuesday after the tailwind from a potential pickup in Chinese demand, as lockdowns begin to lift, was being offset by hawkish comments on interest rates from Fed chair Powell, and news that the US may ease some economic sanctions on Venezuela, a 2m b/d producer in 2017 reduced to just 0.7m b/d at present. The bid, however, returned late in the day when the API published a bullish inventory report that pointed to a continued and worsening tightness in the US crude and gasoline market after they saw stocks falling by 2.4m barrels and 5.1m barrels, respectively. The EIA will release its official report later Wednesday. Dutch TTF benchmark gas (TTFMM2) remains rangebound within a €85 to €110 range despite the fact Europe's gas inventories are rebuilding at the fastest rate on record as the region's buyers outbid competitors from Asia to acquire as much gas as possible at any price. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe total stocks have since the March low climbed by 202 TWh to 446 TWh, and at this rate will surpass the five-year average within the next few weeks. Asia’s LNG buyers have been less active than normal, driven by a combination of stocks being allowed to run down due to soaring prices and lower Chinese demand as its coronavirus outbreaks and lockdowns take its toll on demand for gas. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) - sold off yesterday and took the 10-year Treasury benchmark yield sharply back higher toward 3.00% in the wake of strong US Retail Sales data and amidst positive risk sentiment. If the 10-year yield continues higher after yesterday’s 10 basis point jump, it is worth nothing that the recent top of 3.2% was within a few basis points of the 2018 high for the cycle at 3.26%. Meanwhile, the 30-year T-bond yield closed at 3.185, the second-highest daily close for the cycle, with an intraday cycle high of 3.31%. The US Treasury is set to auction 20-year T-notes later today. What is going on? Fed Chair Powell says “won’t hesitate at all” to take Fed Funds rate above neutral after saying that “what we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way, and we’re going to keep pushing until we see that.” Powell admitted that taking levels above neutral could bring some pain and a rise in the unemployment rate. End-2022 Fed expectations rose about 10 basis points yesterday and sit at 2.82”, just shy of the 2.88% cycle highs from before the May 4 FOMC meeting, at which Powell discouraged the idea of hiking more than 50 basis points at a time. UK Apr. CPI out this morning in line with expectations. The headline year-on-year reading was 9.0% vs. 9.1% expected and 7.0% in March, while the Core CPI was 6.2% as expected and vs.5.7% in Mar. The month-on-month headline CPI was 2.5% vs. 2.6% expected and 1.1% in March. Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, suffers worst single-day price drop since 1987 as it cut its profit forecast, citing margin pressure concerns due to inflation, and the CEO vowing that “price leadership is especially important right now.” Home Depot gains on strong Q1 and better than expected Q2 outlook. The US home improvement retailer gained yesterday on a surprise Q1 comp sales of +2.2% y/y vs est. -2.4% y/y and saying on the conference call that Q2 was off to a strong start; the company says it is not seeing the consumer holding back and sees tight housing inventory lasting for five years. Japan Q1 GDP contracted less than expected. Japan’s Q1 GDP showed a contraction of 1% q/q sa following a 3.8% expansion in Q4, but it was still better than expected. The omicron wave and supply drags created pressures, but the outlook for Q2 is appears to be improving as the economy reopens and pent-up demand boosts consumer spending. UK unemployment drops to a 50-year low of 3.7%. For the first time since records, job openings (1.3 million) outnumber those out of work. In addition, the number of payrolled employees grew by 121,000 between March and April, to 29.5 million. A lot of people have chosen salaried employment over self-employment due to fear of recession and higher cost of living. Wages continue to move upward. But this is not enough to cope with inflation. Pay, excluding bonuses, rose by 4.2 % between January and March while cost of living was at 7 % in March and is expected to jump to 9 % in April. The situation is becoming unbearable for many households. We believe that the Bank of England will have no other choice but to speed up the interest rate hike cycle before pausing perhaps after the summer. As expected, U.S. April retail sales show the U.S. domestic economy is very resilient. Retail sales were out at 0.9 % versus the expected 1 %. After adjusting for monthly inflation, it was at 0.6 %. This is still very solid. There is no sign of imminent recession in the United States when we look at the U.S. consumer. Peloton sees twice the demand for its $750 bond offering. The struggling health company has seen strong demand for its bonds in a sign that risk appetite is still intact in the high yield debt market in the US. Australian wage growth in Q1 slightly softer than expected. The report showed Australian wages rising only +0.7% QoQ and +2.4% YoY vs. +0.8%/+2.5% expected, respectively and vs. +2.3% YoY in Q4. What are we watching next? Earnings Watch. Today’s focus is Tencent given the latest support from the Chinese government including comments yesterday from the Vice Premier signaling support for platform companies. Consensus is looking for Q1 revenue of CNY 141.1bn up 4% y/y and EPS of CNY 2.77 down 5% y/y. SQM is also reporting today and is one of the world’s leading lithium miners earning 41% of its profits from lithium and 59% from fertilizers and plant nutrients including potassium, and as well as other agricultural sector products. Both lithium and fertilizers are seeing high prices due to tight supply-demand situation. Today: Tencent, Experian, Burberry, Singapore Airlines, Cisco, Lowe’s, Target, Analog Devices, TJX, Synopsys, Copart, Trip.com, SQM Thursday: Xiaomi, Generali, National Grid, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, Ross Stores, DiDi Global Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – South Africa 1230 – US Apr. Housing Starts and Building Permits 1230 – Canada Apr. CPI 1230 – Canada Apr. Home Price Index 1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 2000 – US Fed’ Harker (Non-voter) to speak 2350 – Japan Apr. Trade Balance 0130 – Australia Apr. Employment Data Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Saxo Bank

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views Learn more on ING Economics Energy The oil market has seen a partial recovery in early morning trading today, after Brent settled more than 2% lower yesterday. Reports that the US is looking to ease some sanctions against Venezuela contributed to yesterday’s weakness, with it thought that the easing could see a partial resumption of Venezuelan oil to Europe. Any increase is likely to be rather limited, at least in the short term.   There are growing concerns over the refined products market. What started out as a tight middle distillate market appears to be spreading into the gasoline market, at least for the US. At a time when US gasoline inventories should be building ahead of the driving season, inventories instead have declined for most of this year. These are now below the low end of the 5-year range.  Gasoline demand should only increase over the coming months and, in the absence of a pick up in refinery runs, the gasoline market is likely to continue to tighten. The tighter gasoline market appears to have also contributed to a narrowing in the WTI/Brent discount, given the  need for higher US refinery runs, which should be supportive for US crude demand. Gasoline stocks in the ARA region of Europe are more comfortable, and are at least at a decade high for this time of the year. Given the tightness on the US East Coast and more comfortable European stock levels, we would expect to see a pick-up in European gasoline flows to the US East Coast in order to help alleviate some of this tightness. API numbers released overnight confirm the tightening in the market. US crude oil inventories are reported to have fallen by 2.4MMbbls, whilst stock levels at Cushing, the WTI delivery hub, fell by 3.1MMbbls. It was the gasoline market which saw the largest decline, with stocks falling by 5.1MMbbls over the last week. EIA numbers will be released later today. The EU carbon market saw some strength yesterday, with the market breaking above EUR91/t. The European Parliament’s Environmental Committee voted yesterday on reforms to the EU ETS. The committee agreed on the need for more aggressive carbon emission reduction targets. The committee would like to see emissions covered by the ETS fall by 67% by 2030 from 2005 levels, this compares to the initial proposal for a 61% reduction. In order to achieve this, the committee has  recommended that the amount of emission allowances should be reduced by 4.2% in the first year the reform starts, and then this reduction should increase by 0.1% each year through until 2030. The committee also wants to see the phasing out of free allowances between 2026 and 2030, and the full implementation of  the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by 2030, which would be 5 years earlier than currently proposed. In addition,  the Environmental Committee wants to phase out free allocations for the aviation  sector  by 2025, which would  be 2 years earlier than the Commission had proposed. The proposal will also see maritime transport included in the ETS from 2024, which would cover 100% of intra-EU routes, and 50% of emissions from extra-EU routes coming in and out of the EU initially. Finally, the committee also agreed on the implementation of another emission trading  system for commercial buildings and transport, which would start in 2025, whilst private buildings and transportation will be excluded  from this new ETS until at least 2029. This latest proposal will be put to a vote  in parliament next month, after which negotiations between member states will likely start. Metals Latest reports that Shanghai might start relaxing its two-month lockdown after three days of zero community transmission, along with better-than-expected retail sales and consumer spending data from the US, were constructive for risk assets yesterday. Most base metals settled higher on the day, with LME aluminium closing more  than 2% up. Shrinking LME inventories have provided some support  to aluminium. The latest LME data shows that on-warrant inventories for the metal fell for an eighth consecutive day to a new record low of 230kt yesterday. Turning to steel, and China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) said that China will keep its restrictions on new steel capacity intact and would push for more mergers and acquisitions within the industry. Due to ongoing Covid-related restrictions, steel demand has remained under pressure recently, but this should improve as the Covid situation improves. Mysteel expects China’s steel demand over 2H22 to rise by 10% compared to 1H22, whilst YoY growth is expected to hit 15% in 2H22. This growth is expected  to be supported by local government policies. Agriculture CBOT wheat continued to trade firm yesterday, even after India relaxed its stance with its recently announced export ban on wheat. New directives from the Indian government indicate that the restrictions will not apply to wheat shipments that have already been handed over to the customs department for clearance and loadings. However, the export restrictions will still apply to wheat sales where the shipments are not yet finalised through the issuance of irrevocable LoC. Reuters reported that only around 400kt of wheat (out of around 2.2mt of wheat currently at ports) would be eligible for relief and likely to be exported. The relaxation is unlikely to provide much relief to the global market. TagsWheat Oil Metals Gasoline EU carbon Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

InPost, the leader of the modern logistics services market in Poland, is moving its headquarters to Ocean Office Park complex in Cracow. The company has leased 8,300 sq m. of space in building B, implemented in this investment. Walter Herz company supported the company in the process of searching for a location and negotiating lease terms. Amsterdam Stock Exchange, decided to relocate the office to the Cavatina investment located at Pana Tadeusza Street in the Zablocie district of Cracow The international company listed on EURONEXT – Amsterdam Stock Exchange, decided to relocate the office to the Cavatina investment located at Pana Tadeusza Street in the Zablocie district of Cracow, with a view to create the best conditions for the development of the organization and to provide the team with comfortable working conditions in a modern environment. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM - Changing the headquarters is aimed at meeting our current expectations in terms of the quality of office space, as well as the needs related to the intense growth of the organization. We chose Ocean Office Park because it offers the highest standard of office space and common areas, which ensures comfort and safety at work. Attractive architectural and technical solutions that distinguish this project were the main aspects that determined the choice of location. Green areas and recreational zones arranged within the complex were also of great importance - says Marcin Pulchny, Vice President of the Management Board of InPost. - Environmental protection and ESG policy is of great importance to us. The company was listed first in the Electromobility-Friendly Companies 2022 ranking. It is important for us to achieve synergy, combining corporate governance and natural and social environment. All employees working in the complex will have access to parcel lockers, the most eco-friendly for of delivery for on-line shopping, located on the OOP premises. - adds Marcin Pulchny. It is a great satisfaction for us that InPost has once more benefited from the experience of our team specializing in servicing the office sector - informs BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik, Managing Partner/CEO at Walter Herz - We are very pleased that once again, we had the opportunity to support InPost in the search for space. This time, our task was to carry out the relocation process of the company's headquarters, including financial, legal and technical negotiations. We advised the company on various levels, both in terms of searching for offices and space for logistics activities, which is related to the expansion of the e-commerce delivery platform throughout Poland. InPost, as one of the largest logistics operators in Poland, is also one of the most active entities on the logistics space market. It is a great satisfaction for us that InPost has once more benefited from the experience of our team specializing in servicing the office sector - informs BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik, Managing Partner/CEO at Walter Herz. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM InPost enjoys a leading position on the logistics market in Poland. The operator has created the first in the country network of parcel lockers, self-service points of sending and receiving parcels, open 24/7. The company has been present on the market for 22 years and has almost 17 thousand parcel lockers that form the largest business structure of this type on our market. Moreover, the application used to operate the lockers, has over 9 million users. - Searching for a new office for InPost, it was crucial to provide the company with optimal development opportunities within the selected building and to protect the client against an increase in construction costs. Comprehensive services related to the relocation also included securing the tenant's interests when it comes to Project Management, and above all Cost Management. The basis for choosing Ocean Office Park was a very good relation of the quality and technical standard of the offered space in relation to the financial conditions and the location of the facility in the vicinity of key transport hubs in the city - informs Mateusz Strzelecki, Head of Tenant Representation / Partner at Walter Herz. - Ocean Office Park is our third office project that we are implementing in Cracow. The confirmation of the success of this project, in which we commissioned the first office building, is among others, the main Prime Property Prize in the category of Investment of the Year in the Office Space Market, which it has recently won. So far, we have completed six office buildings on the Cracow market. In addition to building A in the Ocean Office Park investment, our portfolio of completed projects includes four office buildings in the Equal Business Park complex located at Wielicka Street and Tischnera Office project. We are happy that InPost is relocating its headquarters to our newest investment in Cracow. We plan to complete the construction of the second office building in the Zablocie district before the end of the year and we hope that the tenants will move into the offices at the beginning of next year – says Natalia JagliÅ„ska, Leasing Director, Cavatina Holding. Cavatina Capital Group is a leader on the Polish real estate market, it has a portfolio of mixed-use properties with a total of 0.5 million sq m. The company independently manages all key investment processes. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For ten years, the company has provided comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors, and real estate owners across the country. Walter Herz experts assist investors, property owners, and tenants. They provide full service to companies from the private and public sectors. Walter Herz advisors support clients in finding and leasing space and provide consulting in implementing investment projects in the warehouse, office, retail, and hotel sectors. The company is based in Warsaw and runs regional branches in Cracow and Łódź. Walter Herz has created the Tenant Academy, the first project in Poland, which supports and educates commercial tenants from all over Poland by organizing specialized training meetings. To ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice. 

The US equity markets rallied yesterday after taking over a positive session from the Europeans. However, the US retail sales data didn’t necessarily hint at slowing spending, and Jerome Powell didn’t say things that investors would normally like to hear. Powell’s words didn’t hit the investor appetite immediate, but mixed activity in US futures hint that appetite may not remain as strong in the coming sessions. In the FX, the US dollar eased from two-decade highs. Gold trades around the $1800 mark and crude oil bumps into solid topsellers approaching above the $115pb   The EURUSD rebounded past the 1.05 and Cable traded past 1.24. Yet, prospects of higher US rates, and the positive divergence between the Fed and other central banks should prevent the dollar from falling significantly. Eurozone’s final inflation data is due today, and should confirm a rise to 7.5% in April, an eye-watering number which should keep the European Central Bank (ECB) hawks and the euro bulls alert, and help the single currency consolidate its latest gains against the US dollar. Gold trades around the $1800 mark and crude oil bumps into solid topsellers approaching above the $115pb. On the earnings front, the US retailers reveal mixed earnings but they all agree on one thing: inflation impacts activity. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:22 Market update 2:06 Jerome Powell is decided to bring inflation down! 2:48 High EZ inflation to keep euro bulls alert 3:41 ...but the dollar may not ease much! 4:42 Gold under the pressure on rising rates 5:31 Crude oil bumps into topsellers past $115pb 6:47 US retailers reveal mixed results, but agree that inflation is an issue Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

Venezuela/Europe send oil lower Overnight, oil prices touched multi-week highs until the US announced it was starting a process, potentially leading to an easing of sanctions on Venezuela. That immediately saw oil reverse all its impressive intraday gains and both Brent crude and WTI finished slightly lower on the day. The EU effectively allowing European importers to pay for Russian gas via roubles should take the edge off European gas prices and flow through to oil prices. Brent crude finished 1.05% lower at USD 112.70 a barrel, having tested USD 116.00 intraday. WTI, by contrast, finished just 0.10% lower at USD 113.60 a barrel, having also tested USD 116.00 intraday. Prices are unmoved in Asia. Tight API inventory data and soaring diesel prices in the US have combined to send WTI to a premium over Brent and is likely to limit the downside for both contracts, Venezuela, or not. Tonight’s official crude inventory data dump will now be closely watched, and sharp falls in gasoline and distillates inventories could increase the WTI premium over Brent crude. Brent crude has resistance at USD 116.00 and support at USD 111.50 a barrel. WTI has taken resistance at USD 116.00 a barrel as well, with support at USD 111.50. Any progress on Venezuela’s supply returning to international markets is potentially a game-changer and should mean the top of my longer-term range, at USD 120.00 a barrel, remains intact. Gold’s price action doesn’t inspire confidence Despite the US dollar falling heavily overnight, and risk sentiment rising generally, gold prices fell 0.53% to USD 1815.00 an ounce overnight, easing to USD 1814.50 in Asia. US yields climbing higher may have played a part, but the direction of the US dollar has been more important of late. When gold falls as the US dollar falls heavily, we should all take that as a warning sign, suggesting lower prices are the path of least resistance. As such, I believe gold’s downside risks have ratcheted higher. Support lies at USD 1789.00, followed by USD 1780.00 an ounce. Failure of the latter suggests a deeper correction to USD 1700.00. That move could occur quite quickly if USD 1780.00 fails. Gold has resistance at USD 1836.00, followed by the 200-DMA at USD 1836.80, and then USD 1850.00 an ounce. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The Canadian dollar has looked sharp, taking advantage of recent US dollar weakness. USD/CAD barrelled past the 1.30 line on Thursday, but the Canadian dollar has rallied and is currently trading at 1.2830. Has Canada’s inflation peaked? Investors are keeping both eyes on Canada’s April inflation report, which will be released later today. On a monthly basis, the markets are expecting a significant drop – headline CPI is expected at 0.5% (1.4% prior) and core CPI is projected at 0.4% (1.0% prior). If the readings are within expectations, we can expect some headlines trumpeting that inflation has peaked. I would argue that it would be premature to declare that inflation is easing based on a single reading. Still, the CPI release could be a market-mover. If inflation is weak, the markets may expect the BoC to be less aggressive in its rate hiking stance and that could send the Canadian dollar lower. Conversely, a stronger than expected CPI would likely send the Canadian currency higher. The BoC raised rates by 0.50% in April, and there is strong pressure to deliver another 0.50% hike at the June 1st meeting, especially if inflation is higher than expected. The US dollar lost ground overnight, even though US Treasury yields moved higher and Fed Chair Powell said rates could rise above the terminal rate (around 3.50%) in order to contain inflation. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke weighed in on Fed policy, saying that the central bank waited too long to respond to inflation. Bernanke warned that he expected to see stagflation in the next year or two. Despite the talk of recession and stagflation, the US posted strong numbers on Tuesday, led by retail sales. The headline reading came in at 0.9% and core retail sales at 1.0%, as both beat the estimates. Consumers are in a spending mood, despite a weakening in consumer confidence. If inflation doesn’t show signs of easing in the next few months, consumers might reduce spending, which could dampen economic growth. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2848. Above, there is resistance at 1.2962 There is support at 1.2787 and 1.2673 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

As it does every month, Bank of America conducts a survey of fund managers with nearly $900 billion AUM. Its results in the May edition seem very interesting, indicating the risks and actions of institutional investors. According to the survey, investors appear to be hoarding cash as the outlook for global economic growth falls to an all-time low and fears of stagflation increase. Cash holdings among investors have reached their highest level since September 2001, according to the report. A survey this month of investors managing $872 billion also found that hawkish central banks are seen as the biggest risk to financial markets. A global recession came in second, and concerns about stagflation rose to their highest level since 2008. The findings could show an uninspiring outlook for global equities, which are already on track for their longest weekly losing streak since the global financial crisis, as central banks turn off the tap on money at a time of stubbornly high inflation. The BofA report said the stock market may be in a bear market, but the final lows have not yet been reached. More interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are still expected, and the market is not yet in full capitulation. The BofA survey also found that technology stocks are under the most pressure since 2006. Overall, investors were most attuned to holding cash, and are least inclined to go for: emerging market stocks, eurozone stocks and bonds at the moment. The report also found that the so-called most crowded trades at the moment are long positions on oil (28%), short positions on U.S. Treasury bonds (25%), long on technology stocks (14%), and long on bitcoin (8%). According to the respondents, the value to which the S&P 500 index would have to fall for the Fed to start refraining from further monetary policy tightening falls at the level of 3529, i.e. about 12% below the current level. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Summary:  After the odd tapping on the brakes at the May 4 FOMC meeting, when the Fed wanted to take the idea of 75-basis point rates off the table, Fed Chair Powell reminded the market of its mission to ensure that it will not let up on policy tightening until it has achieved a sustained drop in inflation. Elsewhere, the sterling squeeze is fading fast and the status of key USD charts is pivotal. FX Trading focus: Powell puts back on the hawkish hat, GBP squeeze fading fast, USDCAD spotlight Fed Chair Powell reminds us of the Fed’s mission in saying that the Fed “won’t hesitate at all” to take the Fed Funds rate above neutral, and that “what we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way, and we’re going to keep pushing until we see that.” Powell admitted that taking levels above neutral could bring some pain and a rise in the unemployment rate. End-2022 Fed expectations rose about 10 basis points yesterday and this morning were at 2.82%, just shy of the 2.88% cycle highs from before the May 4 FOMC meeting, at which Powell discouraged the idea of hiking more than 50 basis points at a time (why?). This only offered the USD a modicum of support overnight as risk sentiment absorbed the news without much fuss. GBP shorts caught in quite the squeeze yesterday, likely aggravated badly by positioning, which is quite heavily bearish in the US futures market and in general. Yesterday I mentioned the very strong payrolls data as a driver, but there was also the news that the UK government may be considering tax cuts, including a lowering of the VAT, as well as cost-of-living support for the most vulnerable citizens. In the first instance, this could eventually help ease inflation levels and thus allow the Bank of England to hike more than previously expected, but the follow-on thinking is that it could also keep demand higher than it would be otherwise and continue to driver extreme external deficits for the UK, eroding the sovereign UK balance sheet and therefore possibly trust in sterling as well. Sterling has surrendered much of yesterday’s gains – watching for a capitulation again in GBPUSD, while the EURGBP has bounced back above the existential 0.8450 area that  was pivotal on the way up. A very choppy chart there. USDCAD and US vs. Canada Housing spotlightThe CAD has received a double dose of support from the recent strong bounce in risk sentiment and crude oil prices pulling into the top of the range and beyond at times recently. But let’s look a bit further ahead at the inevitable gathering storm that is set to hit the housing market in coming months, after yields have lurched sharply higher. The headline is that if an ugly housing slowdown lies ahead, it will hit Canada’s economy with far more force than it will the US economy. Construction itself contributes about 75% more to GDP in Canada than the US (about 7.5% vs. 4.3%), and private balance sheets in Canada are far more levered, with notable local housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver making UBS world top ten list (at #2 and #6) of worst housing bubbles in 2021. The Greater Toronto area, by the way, represents over 17% of the Canadian population. I have better data on the US market and can see solidifying signs in leading indicators that the US housing market is set for a slowdown, including yesterday’s worst of the cycle drop in the NAHB for the May data point, which fell 8 points to 69 versus 75 expected and 77 in April. The latest Housing Starts and Building Permits data is up today (for April), although this lags the NAHB historically by about six months in directional terms. US Pending home sales have also rolled over as discussed in today’s Saxo Market Call podcast and are another leading indicator. So, while near term, an additional boost to sentiment and energy prices could see a break-down in USDCAD, the Canadian economy will face disproportionately large end-of-cycle pressures once the recession arrives, so clouds remain over the cycle outlook for the loonie. Chart thoughts below for USDCAD Chart: USDCADThe USDCAD chart has retreated to critical levels for bulls, as a significant punch below 1.2800 makes the chart look a lost cause for the bulls (arguably, the last, last gasp area is just ahead of 1.2700 at the prior pivot lows or even 1.2660 if using the 61.8% retracement and the 200-day moving average, although the reversal back down through 1.2900-50 has already been a disappointment after that level to the upside was broken. An impulsive recovery back above 1.3000 to put the momentum back on track higher. Source: Saxo Group Underwhelming wage price data for Q1 from Australia overnight, which rose a mere 0.7% QoQ and 2.4% YoY, both 0.1% below expectations. This is meant to be the key data that would drive the RBA to accelerate its tightening regime if it provided evidence of a wage price spiral. Alas, the AUD seems more focused on hopes for China lifting Covid restrictions and swings in risk sentiment. The 0.7000-0.7050 zone remains the tactical resistance focus, with bears possibly needing to retreat back to 0.7200-50 if it does not hold. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The USD is losing steam in a trending sense, and would need a solid new impulsive move higher soon to avoid a further breakdown in key pairs, and versus the G10 currencies generally. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.USDCAD is on the verge of flipping into a positive territory on the trend readings if it can’t rally soon. Also note the EURGBP rally hanging on by a thread here. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – US Apr. Housing Starts and Building Permits 1230 – Canada Apr. CPI 1230 – Canada Apr. Home Price Index 2000 – US Fed’ Harker (Non-voter) to speak 2350 – Japan Apr. Trade Balance 0130 – Australia Apr. Employment Data Source: Saxo Bank

Summary: Target share price tanks after earnings release. Retailers getting blindsided by higher costs Targets earnings announcement leaves investors shorting the stock Target Corporation's stock tanked on Tuesday after they released their first quarter earnings, their adjusted earnings per share came in well below investor expectations. However, it was not only the first quarters earning report than sent the share price tumbling, the retailer announced they expected the second quarter that its income margin rate is unlikely to be similar to the first quarters 5.3% operating income margin rate. Supply chain issues have also increased costs Target claims to have been blindsided by rising prices in the current environment, causing many financial indicators to come out lower than expected. In addition, supply chain issues have also increased costs. Despite sales rising as customers are having to spend more to buy more (due to rising inflation) profits are still struggling. Target Price Chart Read next: (DJI) Retail Stocks Help Push Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Up, Another Crypto Loses Value In The Market  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barrons.com

Global real estate advisory firm Savills has advised Balmoral Properties on the disposal of three office buildings of the Browar Lubicz complex in Krakow. The new owner of the property is French-based PAREF Gestion, which acquired it on behalf of SCPI Interpierre Europe Centrale. The property is located at Lubicz Street, directly opposite Krakow Main Railway Station and Galeria Krakowska Browar Lubicz is a mixed-use development that seamlessly blends the elements of the traditional architectural design of the former brewery and a modern building. The transaction comprised three office buildings of the complex with a combined area of 7,500 sq m. The property is located at Lubicz Street, directly opposite Krakow Main Railway Station and Galeria Krakowska, just 800 metres away from Krakow’s Main Market Square. Its tenants include one of the leading app-based mobility as service provider, CentralNic, a multinational holding company providing domain name registry services, web hosting and web traffic monetization, and YGGDrasil, a Swedish provider of gaming solutions. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM “Thanks to its prime location, Browar Lubicz ties in with the strategy of investment funds targeting assets close to key transport hubs. It is unique in being a human scale development and one of very few modern office buildings located so close to the historic Main Market Square and the Tower of St. Mary’s Basilica. The transaction is a confirmation of the continued trust and confidence of cross-border capital in high quality properties in Poland,” says Tomasz Buras, CEO and Head of Investment, Savills. The parties agreed not to disclose the value of the transaction. Balmoral Properties was advised on the sale of the buildings by Savills (investment and leasing support services) and Jakubaszek & Wspólnicy (legal). The new owner of the property was advised by Dentons (legal) and BNP Paribas Real Estate (technical).

Fear of a recession may be one of the reasons pushing risky asset prices lower. Yesterday alone, the Dow Jones fell 3.57 percent and the S&P 500 fell 4.04 percent, its biggest one-day drop since June 2020. The Nasdaq Composite was off 4.73 percent. The U.S. economy is mainly spinning thanks to consumption and largely living on credit Another turnaround on Wall Street came after the release of the results of U.S. big-box retail chains such as Wal-Mart and Target. The share price of the former fell by almost 25 percent from its April peak, and the latter by about 40 percent. Why is this important? The U.S. economy is mainly spinning thanks to consumption and largely living on credit. Decrease in consumption by higher inflation, as shown by the results of companies and their comments to the results, can therefore be a wake-up call that the US economy will no longer grow so rapidly. As a result, there has been an even greater fear of recession, which in the current inflationary environment brings to mind the stagflation of the 70s-80s in the United States. Add to that rising lending rates through interest rate hikes, broken supply chains and an expensive U.S. dollar eroding export profits. According to some, this is the perfect set of factors that could push the market further into the embrace of a waking bear market. Investors also might be looking for the point at which they believe the dollar and U.S. bonds have priced in a full cycle of rate hikes before the Fed In a more optimistic scenario, however, they may predict that inflation will peak in the second or third quarter of this year and then begin to decline starting in the fourth quarter of 2022. At that point, consumers could breathe a sigh of relief as prices would still rise, but no longer as fast as before. The same could be true for the stock market, which statistically, in cycles of interest rate hikes, seemed to create corrections in the first reaction and then continued earlier trends. Investors also might be looking for the point at which they believe the dollar and U.S. bonds have priced in a full cycle of rate hikes before the Fed. At that point, they could switch from the dollar to bonds or stocks, which could also put the brakes on the declines currently seen. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Since the beginning of the year alone, the Nasdaq index has fallen by 27 percent, the S&P 500 by more than 18 percent, and the Dow Jones by less than 15 percent. U.S. 10-year bonds have shrunk by 8 percent, and gold has fallen by 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has gained about 8 percent. This could quite clearly show that the cash phase of the cycle may be underway. It may be followed, according to theory, by the bond phase of the cycle and only the equity phase of the cycle. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Summary: The market sentiment for the EUR/USD currency pair turns mixed. Inflation and economic data weighing on the GBP. BoJ continues to fight rising interest rates. AUD strengthens amidst favourable unemployment data. The market seems to be favouring the Euro for a change The market is signalling mixed market sentiment for this currency pair. The U.S dollar lost ground to the EUR during Thursdays early trading, however, the demand for the safe-haven asset remains steady due to investor risk sentiment still being fragile. Earlier this week the Fed announced they would push interest rates as high as necessary to fight the surging inflation. On Thursday the market is waiting for the minutes from the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting to be released, hoping there will be an indication of a tightening in monetary policy. Read next: (EUR/USD) Hopes Of A Hawkish ECB Shows Favour To The Euro, (EUR/GBP) UK CPI Inflation Data Knocks The Pound Sterling - Good Morning Forex!  This begs the question: despite the Fed's already hawkish monetary policy, why is the market not pricing in much for the hawkish Fed, but pricing in a lot for the European Central Bank (ECB) ? EUR/USD Price Chart BoE and ECB expected to raise interest rates The market is reflecting a mixed market sentiment on Thursday. Earlier in the trading week, UK economic data releases weighted on the value of the Pound Sterling, global investor sentiment and the current equity bear market are both aspects that could mean further losses for the GBP. Earlier on in the trading week, the GBP gained on both the Euro and the US Dollar, but a midweek sentiment turn around has bought the Pound Sterling back down. Both the ECB and the Bank of England (BOE) are expected to raise interest rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News! USD continues to beat the JPY The Japanese yen seems to be an underperformer in the past week, perhaps this is due to the rising U.S yields by the Fed amidst the Bank of Japan (BoJ) fighting against tightening their monetary policy. Should the market face a big risk-off sentiment, the JPY might see some gains, however in this currency pair, it may not be noticeable due to the USD also being seen as a safe-haven currency. USD/JPY Price Chart AUD regains some investor confidence Market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish. Investor confidence has increased in the Australian Dollar after the unemployment rate for April came in at 3.9% which not only exceeded market expectations but is also the lowest rate since the 1970s. AUD/JPY Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP) Euro Strengthens In The Wake Of Villeroys Comments On Monday, (AUD/JPY), (GBP/USD) Pound Sterling Showing Strength - Good Morning Forex!   Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com

The European Central Bank hawks are calling the shots. The minutes of the ECB’s April meeting just confirmed that the hawks increasingly have the upper hand in discussions. A rate hike in July is no longer uncertain, the only uncertainty is whether it will be 25bp or 50bp   The minutes of the ECB’s April meeting provided more evidence that a majority of policymakers at the ECB have become increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook. The most important elements of the minutes are: Pipeline inflationary pressure. “The war in Ukraine and the pandemic measures in China suggested that pipeline pressures and bottlenecks were likely to intensify further, affecting consumer prices over a relatively long period of time.” Fear of stronger wage growth. While the ECB currently only sees moderate wage pressure, “there could be little doubt that workers would eventually ask for compensation for the loss in real income.” There was also evidence from different countries pointing to some heterogeneity across the eurozone. Greenflation. The accelerated decarbonisation and the attempt to increase Europe’s energy independence was another factor structurally pushing up prices. Also, reshoring efforts could reduce the disinflationary impact of globalisation on wages and inflation. Not whether the ECB will hike in July but by how much As regards the next policy steps, several members claimed that the accommodative monetary stance “was no longer consistent with the inflation outlook”, arguing for a faster normalisation process. Otherwise, inflation expectations could continue to rise further from a level that is already above the Governing Council’s target. Acting too late could also lead to second-round effects and “might have high economic, financial stability and credibility costs if the Governing Council were forced to tighten more aggressively at a later stage in order to re-anchor inflation expectations.” All in all, the minutes confirmed the increasingly hawkish tone of many ECB members since the April meeting. There seems to be an eerie feeling that the ECB is acting too late and quickly needs to join the bandwagon of monetary policy normalisation. This means that the question is no longer whether the ECB should hike interest rates in July but by how much. Former ECB President Mario Draghi once said that “when in a dark room you move with tiny steps. You don’t run but you do move”. It currently looks as if there is a growing majority at the ECB that wants not just to run but to sprint. Read this article on THINK TagsMonetary policy GDP Eurozone ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Tesla stock has always been more volatile than the stock market. It closed the Thursday session on the lowest level since last August, and it is a common question, what is the next turn for the leading EV producer. For now, it looks like the downside impulse is not over yet but did its main part. Musk’s deal with Twitter The list of variables in this stock ranks from the outlook for demand for electric cars (i.e., oil prices) and interest in the ESG agenda, including the economic outlook and monetary policy, and ends with the tone of the tweets of its founder, Elon Musk. But in recent days, it has also been affected by Musk’s deal with Twitter, where Tesla shares were used as collateral. For investors, the latest news of Musk’s potential break-up of the agreement to buy the social network is good news. The opposite is also true. The promotion of the deal has caused Tesla shares to sell off with acceleration in the market. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Locally, buyers are eyeing current levels to purchase Tesla Shares in the leading electric car maker are now trading 38% below their peaks at the start of April and 43% below their all-time highs in November last year. The company’s shares are looking better than many other pandemic favourites, which have zeroed in on all and much of the gains from the March 2020 lows, while Tesla has become about ten times more expensive in that time. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Locally, buyers are eyeing current levels to purchase Tesla, which is aggressively ramping up production and is well ahead of other electric car makers in sales in an era of record fuel prices. On the one hand, the technical analysis points to a return of the stock from oversold territory, which could be followed by both a recovery bounce and the start of a new wave of growth that could return the price to levels above $1000 in just a few weeks. On the other hand, the share price may not face much of an obstacle moving down another 10% from current levels, regaining half of the pandemic rally to levels near $650, where it has traded repeatedly since December 2020.

Summary: Tesla gets kicked off the S&P 500 ESG index. Tesla's stock price has also seen major volatility in the past week, with rising investor concerns around the removal from the S&P 500 ESG index On Wednesday, the Electric Vehicle company Tesla, founded by the world's richest man, Elon Musk was dropped from the S&P 500 ESG index. The index moved to remove Musk amidst claims of social discrimination and crashes due to the autopilot vehicles. Shortly after Tesla was removed, Musk took to twitter and tweeted that “ESG is a scam”. There are other factors that lead to the removal of Tesla, such as a lack of publishing details regarding low energy or business conduct codes. Tesla's stock price has also seen major volatility in the past week, with rising investor concerns around the removal from the S&P 500 ESG index, Musks on-and-off Twitter deal and the CEOs political tweets regarding the Republican and Democratic parties in the U.S TSLA Price Chart Read next: (TGT) Target Delivers Disappointing Earnings Results To The Market  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com

The US labour market is becoming increasingly tight, but at the same time, the rate of job alternation is increasing steadily. The latest weekly data shows that the number of new jobless claims is dropping further to 1.317 million, a new low since 1969 when the US population was 40% less than now. At the same time, the number of initial claims last week stood at 218,000 against 197,000 a week earlier, continuing the upward trend of the previous two months. Since the recurrence rates are methodically declining and the latest employment report noted an increase in employment, it is logical to assume that the rise in initial claims is due to people being more active and finding work quickly. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM One of the secondary effects of the current labour market situation might be a continued high rate of wage growth. This is a good signal of economic activity. Still, it should also increase the vigilance of the hawks at the US Federal Reserve, setting them up to tighten the monetary policy nuts tighter and faster.

Summary:  S&P 500 is down 18% and we are 95 trading sessions into the current drawdown. Investors basing their decisions today on the experience of the past 12 years would argue that now is the time to buy equities, but unfortunately the past 12 years are worthless for the decision making today. The two drawdowns of the 1970s and one post the dot-com bubble are more aligned with the current dynamics and based on these three drawdowns investors are in for more pain and for much longer than most expect will happen. History suggests the current drawdown could be long and brutal The current drawdown feels brutal with Nasdaq 100 down 28% and S&P 500 down 17% since their respective peaks. We are 95 days into the current drawdown in S&P 500 and a drawdown that is currently the 15th largest since 1928. As we wrote the other day, many strategists and investors are talking more about buying the dip in technology and downplaying inflation, than looking at the hard reality; the world has hit a physical limit with a galloping energy crisis and a global food crisis that is only to get worse. Many argue that drawdowns are short and that equities will quickly come back, but this type of thinking is misguided as it is mostly driven by the drawdown structure since 2010 which has been an outlier in the greater history of capital markets. The longest drawdown since 2010 was the period 2015-05-22 to 2016-07-11 which took 286 trading sessions. The current drawdown is the 4th largest since 2010 and the average number of days to the trough of the 10% or worse drawdowns since 2010 (there are seven of those) is 76 days, so if we apply the post financial crisis years as our baseline of course investors should buy the dip and the sunset is near. Unfortunately these samples are the wrong ones to apply. If we look at the 30 largest drawdowns since 1928 in the S&P 500 there is a striking pattern. Either a drawdown reaches its trough fast or it takes a long time. The middle ground seems to be small. The total length of a drawdown, that is the combined length of first going to trough and then a full recovery to the past peak, is a function of the drawdown depth itself but also the length to the trough. Instead of naively applying the same weight on all historic samples some should have a higher weight as they are more relevant for the current regime. We would argue that the drawdown after the dot-com bubble has similarities to the current drawdown due to above average equity valuation we reached this time in the MSCI World. The two other drawdowns during the early 1970s and late 1970s have similarities to the current inflation shock, supply constraints, and commodity crisis that we observe today. These three drawdowns had trading sessions to trough of 360 to 637 days (1.5 to 2.5 years before reaching the bottom) and a full length of 820 to 1898 days, that is around 3 to 7.5 years. In other words, the painful reality is that we might have just started on a very long journey into the unknown and something that looks very different than our past 12 years of experience. The VIX forward curve as we have recently described is still relatively flat and is not suggesting panic or capitulation mode in US equities, so the worst is likely to come. The best investors can do is to think about balance. What will work during these times? Blend equities with short-term bonds, inflation-linked bonds, real estate, and then within themes get exposure to commodities, logistics, defence, cyber security, semiconductors, India, and renewable energy. The only thing investors must not do is to base decisions on their experience over the past 12 years.Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg and Saxo GroupSource: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Source: Saxo Bank

Summary:  The backdrop has increasingly weighed in support of the JPY as safe haven seeking in sovereign bonds has eroded the negative implications of the Bank of Japan’s yield-curve-control policy. And speculative positioning is very short the Japanese currency. Last week’s brief blow-up in the JPY crosses may have been a trial balloon for a far larger squeeze on JPY shorts. FX Trading focus: JPY focus on supportive backdrop The market action yesterday and overnight was at times rather out of synch with recent cross-market correlations. Yes, the worst day in two years for US stocks did see the US dollar rallying in most places, but only modestly so relative to the negative energy in risk sentiment that has been the "norm" in recent months. One possibly source of this was the big mark-down in USDJPY intraday yesterday, which shows that attention may be shifting more towards the old safe-haven role of the Japanese yen on the latter’s traditional sensitivity to the strength in safe-haven bonds, which picked up a powerful bid yesterday, flattening the US yield curve and suggesting a weaker economic growth/inflation outlook. Since much of the early USD buying in the aggravated rally in the greenback since late February was in USDJPY due to the rise in US long treasury yields, any further fall in these yields will likely continue to support the JPY the most among major currencies. A potential “after-burner” for the risk of a tremendous bout of JPY volatility here is market positioning, with the US futures speculative positioning at historically stretched levels.  That’s it for today’s update – JPY volatility is likely to dominate for the coming sessions if it is properly unleashed. Chart: USDJPYUSDJPY poking at the important local 127.50 support and other JPY crosses on the verge of (EURJPY and AUDJPY) or already having broken down (GBPJPY and NZDJPY) through some key support levels. The next obvious focus here could be the 125.00 round-level area, but when the yen works up a head of steam, it has a tendency to overshoot – so potential to 120.00 can’t be ruled out if equity markets are suffering a real liquidity event and safe-haven seeking in US treasuries sends the US 10-year yield benchmark, for example, back to 2.50%. Source: Saxo Group Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.Holding breath here for JPY volatility potential – and with USDJPY under so much pressure, it could block the USD from serving as a safe haven in the crosses. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Apropos JPY crosses – USDJPY is on the verge of crossing over to negative finally if it closes near or below the 127.50 trigger level. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1130 – ECB publishes minutes of April ECB meeting 1230 – ECB’s Guindos to speak 1230 – US May Philadelphia Fed survey 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1400 – US Apr. Existing Home Sales 1500 – Sweden Riksbank’s Floden to speak Source: Saxo Bank

Summary:  Asian markets joined the overnight selloff in US equities although some reversals were seen subsequently. Risk sentiment saw a mild recovery but the outlook for consumer discretionary remains murky amid rising cost pressures and inventory building. Australia’s unemployment rate dipped to record lows and watch for Japan’s CPI and China’s loan prime rates due on Friday. What’s happening in markets? Wall Street stocks hit new lows as the market anticipates earnings declines and further slowdowns in consumer spending, amid tighter financial conditions. This is what’s dragging tech and consumer spending stocks (ex-reopening stocks) to new lows. The S&P500 fell 4% on Wednesday, eroding most of its recent gains. The Nasdaq fell 4.7%, taking the top 100 stock index to its lowest level since November 2020. We think the market is not yet at capitulation point - further selling is ahead. The extra risk now is that volatility, is causing boutique investment managers to be on the brink of margin collapse, which could add to further selling pressure in markets and stocks that are down heavily. Asian equity markets join the global sell-off. Japan’s Nikkei (NI225.I) was down over 2.5% led by tech such as Tokyo Electron (8035) and consumer discretionary with Fast Retailing (9983) down over 3%. Singapore’s STI index (ES3) also dropped close to 1% on Thursday morning after Singapore Airlines reported earnings with a narrower loss and an upbeat outlook. Hong Kong and mainland China equity markets gapped down but losses narrowed at mid-day.  Following overnight US equity market’s worst sell-off since June 2020, Hang Seng Index (HSI.I) slumped as much as 3.5% in the morning. Tencent’s (00700) over 8% plunge in share price after reporting Q1 results below market expectations dampened sentiment further. Tencent’s Q1 revenues and EPS coming at flat and -23% YoY respectively and both were 4% below consensus estimates. Online games revenues (PC + mobile) declined 2% YoY and online advertising revenue dropped 18% YoY. Investors were also troubled the management’s remarks saying support initiatives from the Chinese Government to the tech industry takes time and will not benefit the Company much in near-term.  By mid-day, Tencent is down 6.6% and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) is down 3%.  Hang Seng Index and CSI300 (00300.I) fell 2% and 0.3% respectively. Tesla (TSLA) shares slide 7%, more selling to come as S&P500 boots it out of ESG Index, at a time when market anticipates earnings growth to fall and costs to rise. S&P explained why it kicked Tesla out of its ESG index saying Tesla’s “lack of a low-carbon strategy” and “codes of business conduct,” along with racism and poor working conditions reported at Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California, affected the score. Separately, new research suggests battery cell prices will surge 22% from 2023 to 2026 amid the scarcity in raw materials needed to make EV batteries. This is why we continue to advocate that clients would be better served in commodity companies who are benefiting from price inflation, rather than commodity consumers (EV makers). Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Cisco (CSCO) – a proxy for business IT spending, guides for weaker earnings. Cisco is of the largest IT and networking businesses in the world (catering to a 1/3 the world’s market). It reported its Euro and Asian sales fell 6%. But the real story is its weak guidance. Cisco CEO guided for a drop in revenue ahead, expecting a 1-5% revenue decline for Q4, at a time when the market expected revenue growth of over 5%. This reflects that businesses are not willing to open up their pockets, at a time when inflation (wages, energy) is rising and interest rates are going higher. Consumer spending retail proxies hugely disappoint - as their profit outlooks dim. Target (TGT) shares fell 25% (biggest drop since Black Monday). Walmart (WMT) fell almost 8% as both retailers cut their forecasts for profit amid a slowdown in home-good sales at a time when they’re guiding for rising costs pressures (fuel, freight costs, rising wages). Target and Walmart make $600 billion in combined revenue, that’s double the size of the biggest company on the ASX. So given that both the retail giants are proxies for consumer spending, their demise could translate to other companies. What to consider? US retailer earnings signal shifting consumer spending patterns. We have seen a number of weak retailer/ecommerce earnings from the US now starting with Amazon (AMZN) to Walmart (WMT) to Target (TGT) reporting a 52% decline in profits overnight. While US retail sales show that the consumer is still resilient, there is certainly a shift in spending patterns away from home appliances that were the most sought after during the pandemic to reopening and travel related items such as luggage and services. But it is also important to note that inventory levels are building up, which may mean more write downs or a mark down in prices to sell off. Higher costs are also weighing and only likely to get worse in the second quarter. This means retailers will continue to face the brunt for now. Offshore investors were net seller in onshore RMB bonds for the 3rd consecutive month.  In April, foreign investors sold RMB88 billion (USD13.3bn equivalent) worth of onshore RMB bonds.  The amount of selling moderated somewhat from March’s RMB98 billion. Net inflow of foreign currency from China’s trade settlement declined. In April, net trade settlement was only 42% of China’s trade surplus of that month, below the 2021 average of 58%.  The key driver for the low net inflows seems coming from higher than usual demand from importers to buy foreign currencies, staying at escalated level of 65.1% in April versus 2021 average of 55.8%.  Exporters repatriated 60.8% of the total goods exports in April.  It was down from March’s 65.8% but still well above 2021 average of 54.6%.  Dollar trimmed gains in Asia. The USD moved higher as risk sentiment was eroded overnight, but trimmed gains in Asia. GBPUSD rose back towards 1.2400 while EURUSD was seen back above 1.0500. UK inflation shot up to 9% y/y in April from 7% previously, continuing to complicate the task for the BOE. Yen weakened in Asia, but the cap in 10-year yields as equities lose momentum is suggesting yen weakness has mostly run its course, at least on the crosses. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM AUDUSD rises 0.9%, off its low as Australian unemployment fell to a new historical monthly low (3.9%). This is the lowest reading for the survey. Unemployment was lower in 1974 when survey was quarterly. However, the AUD rose modestly off low, up 0.9% today to 0.7020, as the strong employment data gives the RBA more ammunition to raise rates - given Australia’s economy strengthened. China’s reopening theme also adds to upside for the AUD. However, longer term, as the Fed raises rates, this strengthens the USD, will likely cut the AUD’s grass. Japan imports swell on energy and weak yen. April trade deficit was seen at 839 billion yen as exports grew 12.5% y/y but imports rising 28% on higher energy prices and the drop in yen to two decade lows. Following a negative GDP print for Q1 reported yesterday, the impeding trade position is adding to Q2 risks and pent up demand remains the key to provide an offset in order to avoid a technical recession. Rising inflationary environment may however weigh on consumer spending and Japan’s April CPI will be on watch tomorrow. Consensus expects a rise to 2.5% y/y from 1.2% in March with core CPI also turning positive at 0.7% from -0.7% previously. Potential trading ideas to consider? Short CNHJPY trade that we put on last month may still have room to go. The larger foreign currency outflows due to offshore investors’ bond selling and smaller inflow of foreign currency from trade settlement tend to give add to the depreciating pressure the renminbi. At the same time, the Japanese Yen is benefiting from a safe haven bid in the midst of global equity sell-offs.  Both Japanese investors and overseas leveraged investors who fund their positions in Yen tend to repatriate and need to buy Yen in the time of turmoil.  In addition, the prospect of a pickup in inflation in Japan may trigger traders to cover their bearish positions in the Japanese Yen.  Asian retailers likely to see pressure from global counterparts. Consumer discretionary sector was leading the decline in the S&P overnight, and the rout is likely to spread to Asia. Watching key Asian retailer shares like Japan’s Fast Retailing (9983), Hong Kong’s Sun Art Retail (6808) and Australia’s Harvey Norman (HVN). With liquidity conditions only starting to tighten, there is likely room for the equity rout to run further, but cash is not a viable asset for long term investors. We remain overweight commodities and reopening.   Key economic releases this week: Friday: Japan nationwide CPI, China loan prime rates   Key earnings release this week: Thursday: Xiaomi, Generali, National Grid, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, Ross Stores, DiDi Global   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. 

UK consumer prices rose by 2.5% in April, the second-biggest monthly gain in the indicator’s history since 1988. Annual inflation jumped from 7% to 9%, unseen in the indicator’s history. Metals, meanwhile, have withdrawn from the highs The longer-established retail price index last saw a high annual growth rate (11.1% y/y in April) in 1982, while such a big monthly jump (3.4% m/m) was last observed in 1980. However, despite the horror that these figures represent, there are still indications that the UK’s peak annual rate of inflation will be much lower than in the 1980s (22%) or 1970s (27%). While Output Producer Prices are showing an acceleration in the annual growth rate, rising to 14%, Input PPI has slowed from 19.2% to 18.6%. Although remaining volatile in recent weeks, oil and gas have regularly retreated from highs, limiting upward pressure on prices. Metals, meanwhile, have withdrawn from the highs. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Early hints that UK inflation may be slowing in the coming months may allow the Bank of England to raise the rate by 25 points At the same time, there are growing questions about final global demand, which will constrain producers in shifting costs to consumers. Early hints that UK inflation may be slowing in the coming months may allow the Bank of England to raise the rate by 25 points at its next meeting in mid-June and not copy the Fed’s 50-point move. This is moderately negative news for the British currency, which started to retreat from the $1.25 area on the data after a 2.9% rally from last Friday’s lows. Short-term traders should pay particular attention to the 1.2350 area. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Already, a dip lower this week would suggest that the brief period of recharging dollar bulls has ended. In this case, GBPUSD could quickly fall below 1.2000, making the 1.1500 area a potential ultimate target for this attack Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

After years of heavy pressure on revenues in the telecom sector, we make a call for near-term revenue stabilisation. From an operational perspective, the main themes for the telecom sector are the build-out of 5G and fibre networks. To improve the relative position of the sector regulators should review their measures to provide a more level playing field Source: Shutterstock War has a limited impact on the telecom sector European- and US-based telecom operators are rather insulated from the conflict in Ukraine. Major operators have no sales in the region, the exception being VEON, which is largely exposed, since it is active in Russia and Ukraine. Telekom Austria had only 7.4% of its FY 2021 revenues coming from Belarus. For now, the impact of the war seems limited, with most companies maintaining their 2022 outlook. Typically, demand for telecom services grows in line with GDP. If a severe recession would hit the global economy, telecom operators and handset vendors probably have to adjust revenue expectations in line with GDP expectations, on average. In Europe, however, service revenues have historically already been under pressure because of strong competition. We do not foresee a substantial impact on the financial solidity of companies resulting from this crisis. The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare. State sponsored hackers could engage at some point in cyberwarfare, something the US government warns about. Hackers could try to impair (local) infrastructure, while telecom companies have to up their defenses. Interestingly, so far, we have seen limited impact from cyberwarfare that could possibly have been initiated as a part of the war in Ukraine. However, we are starting to see revenue stabilisation in a couple of markets. For example, the market leaders in the Dutch, French, Belgian and German markets are close to revenue stabilisation. This is mainly driven by new broadband products, which are often offered with mobile services in a bundled product. Restructuring programmes continue to modernise the back-office of the operators and to phase out legacy technologies. Once programmes are over, this could be a tailwind for profitability. Despite good traction from bundled products and new high ARPU fibre products, many incumbents have segments that see price pressure, often in the business segments. This explains why we see positive trends in the sector, while revenues are not showing strong positive growth rates. Domestic revenue trends European telecom operators Source: Company, ING Aiming for a level playing field The European Commission aims for gigabit broadband for all households as well as for a fast 5G mobile connection in populated areas, which should be reached by 2030. It also aims to rein in some large technology companies. It has published proposals for the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Markets Act (DMA) which should reduce the dominance of the large technology platforms and create a level playing field with other sectors in Europe. The EU member states and European Parliament said they welcome the proposals. These are now subject to formal approval by the two co-legislators before they will be applicable. Hopefully, the competitive position of telecom companies will improve as well at some point in the future. Competition has been promoted... and this has lowered prices for telecom services as well Regulation has seriously impaired the profitability of telecom companies through tariff measures (for broadband wholesale access and roaming tariffs). Competition has been promoted, with four mobile operators in many European countries. This has lowered prices for telecom services as well. Governments have raised a lot of money through spectrum auctions and often incentivised new operators entering the market. Finally, product differentiation has been difficult because of net neutrality regulations. As a consequence, free cash flow has been under pressure from both weaker revenues, as well as heavy investments and dividends. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM A case in point is Telecom Italia, which had a solid investment grade rating in 2005, but is now rated in high yield territory. The Italian market is characterised by heavy competition, while the company explains that its fixed network faces relatively high regulatory pressure from a multitude of measures. The company faces substantial pressure on revenues, as can be seen in the figure above. The interim result is that the company is investigating a break-up, having ramifications for the speed of the broadband roll-out in Italy. The downward pressure on credit ratings has been more widespread in the European telecom sector since most companies have already seen rating downgrades. This is illustrated in the table below. Downward rating pressure for European telecom operators Source: S&P Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM As a result, telecom companies have been at the wrong spot in the value chain, while companies that sell telecom equipment, media content or cloud storage have performed very well, as is shown in the figure below. While large technology companies have the means to invest in new (transatlantic) fibre networks, incumbents often can’t fund all of their network investments from their cash flows. In our opinion regulators should pay attention to a call by the European Telecom Network Organisation (ETNO) in which they ask for a fair contribution for the network investment costs from companies that extensively use broadband networks. Since 2015, unregulated firms did profit from internet with market cap. growth Source: Refinitiv Sector trends contribute to revenue stability Nevertheless, broadband connectivity will likely improve across Europe and 5G is here to stay. The private sector is investing heavily, but there are also plans to invest €13bn in digital connectivity as part of the European Resilience and Recovery Plan. Typically, customer retention is relatively healthy for fibre products, especially when combined in a fixed-mobile converged offer. Net mobile networks and services could also contribute to the goal of revenue stability and eventually growing revenues. This year, 5G products and services will likely become widespread. However, it will be key for mobile operators to find good pricing policies for these new 5G services.   Read this article on THINK TagsTelecom sector European telecoms Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Plunging US equities set the tone for Asian markets  Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global: Yesterday was a horrible session for US stocks. Selling pressure was evident from the starting bell, and equity futures today are signalling no sign of buying the dip either. The S&P500 fell more than 4% and the NASDAQ was down 4.73%. The S&P now stands just one bad day away from an official bear market. The NASDAQ is already there. Benchmark FX markets reflected the risk-off tone and reversed yesterday’s moves and more. The EURUSD is now back down to 1.0474, and this has helped pull the AUD back below 70 cents. The JPY has begun to appreciate again and is now at 128.24 whilst the KRW also made gains on a day when most Asian FX was looking fairly weak. US Treasuries too were benefiting from the fall in risk sentiment. Yields on the 2Y US Treasury note fell 3.1bp to 2.669%, while those on the 10Y bond fell 10.2bp to take the yield to 2.884%. There’s not much on the macro calendar today. US existing home sales may just be worth a second or two’s glance. With growing talk of recession vs soft-landing, the interest-sensitive housing sectors may provide a sneak preview of any turn in the economic cycle. Australia: Australia releases its April employment report shortly, and the market is looking for employment growth of about 30,000 and a further slight fall in the unemployment rate to 3.9% from 4.0%. We don’t have any issues with these assumptions. A 3.9% or lower unemployment rate would be a new record low, but we don’t think it particularly changes the story for the RBA, now that they have accepted that inflation is sustainably above their target. Likewise, yesterday’s slightly lower than expected wage price index is not particularly binding right now. All that a very strong labour report may do is raise the prospects of greater than 25bp hikes at forthcoming meetings. China: The Shanghai lockdown is unwinding gradually. The government expects the end of the lockdown will be in early June. For now, Beijing and Tianjin both have districts under lockdown. We expect more districts will be locked down as more Covid clusters are found. The port of Tianjin is important for hard commodity trade. Though we have not seen disruption in Tianjin’s port yet, this could become an issue if stricter social distancing measures are applied. Domestic prices of commodities could increase in this case. Japan: The trade deficit widened to -JPY839bn in April (vs -JPY412.4bn in March), recording the 9th consecutive month of deficit. Exports grew 12.5% YoY while imports rose by 28.2%. Import growth remained rapid, but probably peaked last November (+ 43.8%). Meanwhile, March core machinery orders rebounded by 7.1%MoM (vs 3.9% market consensus), partially offsetting the previous month’s loss of -9.8%.  Yesterday’s 1Q22 GDP was better than expected. But this means that the 2Q rebound will probably be weaker than we previously thought. Pent-up demand-driven consumer spending will lead growth in 2Q, but higher inflation will dampen household purchasing power and moderate any bounce. Today’s data suggest that trade will remain the main drag on 2Q growth, while investment spending will decelerate further. We are planning to revise down 2Q22 GDP soon. Philippines: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) meets to decide on policy today.  Governor, Diokno, who previously vowed to keep rates untouched through to the second half of the year now indicates that the space to keep accommodation has “narrowed significantly”.  We expect BSP to hike policy rates by 25 bps and possibly hint at additional tightening at the 23 June meeting.  What to look out for: US initial jobless claims Japan trade balance (19 May) Australia unemployment (19 May) Philippines BSP policy meeting (19 May) Singapore 1Q GDP final (19 May) US initial jobless claims (19 May) Japan CPI inflation (20 May) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Curves pivoting flatter fits a narrative further shifting towards growth concerns. As European Central Bank pricing gets more hawkish there is more than just the possibility of 50bp moves that could explain how 100bp in four meetings after June could come to pass, even if that is not our view    USD and EUR curves pivoting flatter around the belly of the curve amid weaker risk assets is a pattern that fits the narrative of market concerns having shifted toward rising risks to the growth outlook as central banks tighten policies amid high inflation. Continuing to lean more hawkish on the hawk-dove seesaw In EUR, markets have further ratcheted up their ECB rate hike expectations. By the end of the year they expect an overnight rate more than 100bp higher from now. If one assumes that the ECB will use the June meeting to prepare the grounds for rate hikes by announcing also the end of all net asset purchases, then this would imply an expectation of 25bp hikes at each of the other four remaining policy setting meetings in 2022 – and a bit more. 25bp hikes at the four ECB meetings starting with July – and a bit more Does that mean the possibility of a 50bp hike by the ECB is catching on?  After all it had been floated by the ECB’s Klaas Knot earlier this week, but his remarks may have been more about signaling a commitment to act forcefully. A sources article published yesterday outlined that a majority of the Council supported at least two 25bp hikes this year, but downplayed the notion of a 50bp move. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Curve flattening fits a pattern of growth concerns and tightening central banks Source: Refinitiv, ING Other factors driving aggressive market pricing The aggressive market pricing will to a degree also reflect a higher risk premium amid volatile times, but we would also not exclude some uncertainty being reflected about the evolution of excess reserves in the banking system and how the ECB proceeds with the tiered deposit rate. The expectation is still that larger early repayments of banks’ targeted longer-term refinancing operations borrowings loom in the months ahead, although higher comparable market rates may have now made it more compelling for banks to hold on to the funds beyond June until the September repayment date. On the forwards strip for the ECB meeting periods markets see c.4bp higher overnight rates for the upcoming June meeting, though it may also include outside chances for an immediate ECB rate hike. It is conspicuous that the market prices the largest increase for September, a rise of noticeably more than 30bp while it is below 25bp for the other meetings this year save July. More than 100bp from the ECB in the four 2022 meetings after June Source: Refinitiv, ING   For September the market prices an increase of more than 30bp Perhaps the ECB minutes to be released today will shed more light on the ECB’s internal deliberations on what needs to be done in the face of rising inflation and the balance of risks tilting less favourably. But given how far official communication has already evolved since the April meeting to converge with the market view, the minutes should look dovish, not to say outdated. It was a meeting that still signaled a very gradual move. To be sure, our own expectation is also that aggressive market pricing will likely not be realised with our economists looking for three ECB hikes by the turn of the year. Today's events and market view In the Eurozone the ECB minutes of the 14 April meeting will take the spotlight amid an otherwise quiet data calendar. The minutes have seldomly been market moving, and they should appear especially outdated this time around as ECB communication has evolved quickly since then. We will also hear from the ECB's de Guindos and de Cos today. The other market focus will be today’s busy supply slate. France sells up to €13bn across shorter dated bond lines, including a new 6Y, and linkers. Spain reopens four bond lines including its 20Y green bond for up to €6bn in total.   The US sees publication of initial jobless claims and existing home sales. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary: Despite growing confidence in the stock market, major indices are struggling to keep up with the volatile market. The ECBs turn to a hawkish attitude could lead toward a stronger Euro. Nasdaq loses value during the trading day on Thursday Equity stocks attempted to rebound during trading on Thursday after a sell-off. The sell off came as market participants grew concerned about whether the Fed’s continuous hawkish attitude could cause a slow down in the U.S economy. In general the investor sell-off attitude seems to be easing somewhat, however markets still remain volatile. NASDAQ Price Chart Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM European Central Banks possible tightening of monetary policy During trading on Thursday the Euro saw some strengthening based on the hopes of a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) in the summer. As the European Central Bank looks at a 50bps hike in interest rates this July, investor confidence is starting to restore in the Euro. The Euro showed particular strength against the pound sterling, which simultaneously pushed back their next interest rate hike. Sources: pounsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Summary:  Gold, in a downtrend since mid-April, has found a tentative bid amid continued turbulence across global stock markets. So far, however, the fresh bid has not been strong enough to rattle some of the recent established tactical short positions. For that to happen the metal needs a runaway upside day or a period of consolidation back above the 200-day moving average, currently at $1839/oz. From an absolute return perspective gold’s year-to-date performance in dollars can be viewed as a disappointing Gold, in a downtrend since mid-April, has found a tentative bid amid continued turbulence across global stock markets. So far, however, the fresh bid has not been strong enough to rattle some of the recent established tactical short positions. For that to happen the metal needs a runaway upside day or a period of consolidation back above the 200-day moving average, currently at $1839/oz. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM From an absolute return perspective gold’s year-to-date performance in dollars can be viewed as a disappointing, but when considering the impact of the stronger dollar and the steep losses in stocks and bonds, any diversified investor with gold is likely to be satisfied. The yield on US ten-year inflation adjusted bonds trades lower with the break below the 21-day moving average at +0.09% During the past month, gold has been suffering from the double blow of a stronger dollar and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) signaling an aggressive pace of future rate hikes in order to combat inflation at the highest level in decades. Fine, if the economy does not suffer too much of a setback, thereby raising the risk of recession. What has changed during the past 48 hours has been dismal earnings news from large US retailers raising the risk of a deeper than expected economic slump. Most recently Target Corp which yesterday plunged the most since 1987’s Black Monday crash. In his comments the CEO sited persistent cost pressures and bloating inventories amid a change in consumer spending as reasons. These developments helped deepen the global stock market rout, and today the weakness has continued, thereby supporting short covering and fresh haven buying of US bonds while the dollar has softened. All developments that has supported the mentioned bid in gold. The yield on US ten-year inflation adjusted bonds trades lower with the break below the 21-day moving average at +0.09% signaling a loss of short-term bullish momentum.  Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM The loss of momentum in recent weeks have seen ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) investors reduce gold holdings in all but one of the last 18 days while money managers in the latest reporting week to May 10 cut their net long in COMEX gold futures to a three-month low. Interestingly the latest reduction was primarily driven by long liquidation with no signs of appetite for naked short selling.  We maintain a bullish outlook for gold given the need to diversify amid a troubled stock market and the increased risk of a policy FOMC policy mistakes driving yields and the dollar lower. From the chart below it is clear that gold has its work cut out, and a great deal of work is needed to mend the chart damage done during the past month. The first sign of improvement would be a break above the 200-day moving average at $1839 followed by $1868, the latter being the first level to signal loss of bearish momentum. Source: Saxo Group Source: Saxo Bank

Bioenergy is a crucial pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050. The bioenergy market in the US has been growing and diversifying, with strong growth potential seen in carbon capture and storage (CCS), renewable diesel, and renewable natural gas. Addressing the environmental impact of bioenergy needs clear monitoring and more innovative solutions Bioenergy is a form of renewable energy derived from organic material   Bioenergy, a form of renewable energy derived from organic materials (or biomass), will play a pivotal role in helping the world achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. With a wide range of application options in sectors such as transport, heating, and electricity, bioenergy is forecast to account for 19% of total energy supply in 2050 and will contribute to 13% of the emissions reduction between 2020 and 2030 under the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Net-Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario. Emissions reductions by mitigation measure in the Net-Zero Emissions scenario, 2020-50 Source: International Energy Agency   In the US, the development of bioenergy has been accelerating and expanding. In the transport sector, the US is home to the world’s largest biofuels market, and the demand for biofuels in North America is expected to grow more than any other region through 2026 under the IEA’s baseline scenario. Growth will continue to be led by a diversification of biofuels supply beyond conventional ethanol, as advanced biofuels like renewable diesel and renewable natural gas (RNG) keep gaining momentum. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are another point of growth; these will be covered in a later article. Biofuel demand growth by region in the baseline scenario, 2021-2026 Source: International Energy Agency   But the deployment of and investment in bioenergy is rising in other sectors as well, led by mounting action from corporates and investors across sectors to decarbonise their businesses and portfolios. So, let's take a look at the growth prospects of various bioenergy applications in the US, as well as the challenges they face.   Examples of bioenergy-related corporate climate strategies: Oil and gas: ExxonMobil identifies biofuels as one of its core solutions for its net-zero ambition. The company announced in early 2022 that it would acquire a 49.9% stake in Biojet AS, a Norwegian biofuels company, to receive up to three million barrels of biofuels per year. ExxonMobil is also investing $125m in California-based Global Clean Energy to purchase up to five million barrels per year of renewable diesel. Petrochemicals: Dow sees the creation of a circular economy through recycling and using bio-based materials as a focus area to accelerate sustainability. The company is expanding an agreement with Fuenix Ecogy Group to ramp up circular plastics production. It has also signed agreements with Gunvor Petroleum Rotterdam and Texas-based New Hope Energy to purify pyrolysis oil feedstocks derived from plastic waste. Power: Southern Company last year took ownership of the Meadow Branch Landfill Methane Recovery Facility, the renewable natural gas facility located in Tennessee, to strengthen its RNG capacity as part of the company’s strategy to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Biofuels: Federal policies will have a net positive effect on US production this year The main federal policy to support the US biofuels market is the renewable fuel standard (RFS), which requires refiners to blend certain volumes of biofuels in gasoline each year. The RFS benefited biofuels production – especially that of fuel ethanol – in the past, although in recent years the RFS has become more susceptible to policy uncertainty. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which is in charge of setting RFS mandates, last December proposed to retroactively lower biofuel mandates for 2020 and 2021 but set 2022 requirements slightly above pre-pandemic levels. This will put pressure on refiners to blend more biofuel into their gasoline production this year, resulting in a net positive impact on the biofuels industry. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM In addition, the EPA has proposed the rejection of all outstanding small refinery exemption (SREs) waivers pending for the 2016-20 compliance years. SREs give small refiners that process less than 75,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil and can demonstrate economic hardship caused by the RFS an exemption from complying with the rules. If implemented, this decision would substantially raise the demand for biofuel credits. A federal policy that will specifically boost the production of ethanol is the Biden administration's plan to allow E15 gasoline, a fuel that uses a 15% ethanol blend, to be sold between June and September. E15 gasoline is typically banned in summer due to worries about air pollution. E15 consumption is low also because of retail availability, automobile compatibility, and safety concerns. But heightened oil prices amid the Russia-Ukraine war have made the case for more E15 gasoline sales to ease prices. State level policies are a powerful addition At the state level, California’s low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS), the backbone of a carbon intensity-based cap-and-trade system, has been playing a substantial role in incentivising biofuels production in and near the state. The LCFS aims to achieve a 20% reduction in the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuel pool by 2030, with compliance standards set for each year. Carbon intensity (CIs) based on composite of gasoline and diesel fuels under the LCFS Source: California Air Resources Board   Since last year, LCFS credits (supply) generated from low-carbon fuels have increasingly outgrown LCFS deficits (demand), which has led to a 23% fall from the record high LCFS price of $206/metric ton to $158/metric ton in March 2022. This is mainly because the demand for gasoline and LCFS credits has not recovered from the pandemic, whereas the production of low-carbon fuels keeps growing steadily. The biggest driver of recent LCFS credit generation is renewable diesel, followed by electricity, which has been boosted by the continuing adoption of electric vehicles. LCFS total credits and deficits for all fuels reported Note: Cumulative bank refers to total number of banked credits Source: California Air Resources Board LCFS credit generation by fuel type *Hydrogen, Renewable Naphtha, Propane, Innovative Crude & Low Complexity/Low Energy Use Refining, etc.. Note: Project based credits are issued post verification and may not be included. Source: California Air Resources Board   It remains to be seen whether this deficit trend will be temporary or permanent; we also don't know how the expected implementation of similar programmes in adjacent jurisdictions will alter the LCFS system in California. In addition to the Clean Fuels Program in Oregon which is already in place, Washington State is expecting to implement its Clean Fuel Standard in 2023 and a federal fuel standard is set to come into force in Canada in the same year.  Other US states including New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, and states in the Northeast and Midwest are also in various stages of developing LCFS-style systems. These programmes will provide effective additions to the federal RFS programme in driving biofuels demand. Renewable diesel takes the lead in advanced biofuel deployment The production of biomass-based diesel – namely biodiesel and renewable diesel – has taken off in the US and is set to increase further. Of the two, biodiesel dominates the bio-based diesel market, but renewable diesel is seeing faster growth. This is partly because renewable diesel is compatible with existing distribution infrastructure and engines. With the same composition as fossil diesel, renewable diesel does not have a blending limit, whereas biodiesel typically accounts for up to 20% of fossil diesel in the US, because of insufficient regulatory incentives despite higher blends being available. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Renewable diesel’s ability to lower carbon intensity, particularly in trucking and aviation, has prompted several US refineries to invest in greenfield projects and/or convert traditional plants to process renewable diesel. Refineries set to complete conversion between 2022-23 include Marathon Petroleum’s Martinez refinery in California, CVR Energy’s Wynnewood refinery in Oklahoma, and HollyFrontier’s Cheyenne plant in Wyoming, etc. Planned renewable diesel capacity in the US is expected to reach 6bn gallons by 2025, up from less than 2.4bn gallons estimated for 2021. One major challenge to the growth of both biodiesel and renewable diesel is feedstock availability and costs. It is estimated by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) that the demand for bio-based diesel feedstock will more than double from 2020 to 38.3bn pounds (17.4bn kilograms) in 2022, and soar to over 64bn pounds (19bn kilograms) in 2024. Prices for bio-based diesel feedstock have also climbed since 2020, causing some companies to postpone their renewable diesel projects. US estimated bio-based diesel feedstock use and implied future demand from capacity additions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance   In the long term, despite the growth momentum for bio-based diesel, the Energy Information Administration forecasts that bio-based diesel will remain a small part of the diesel market, accounting for less than 8% of US diesel production in 2050. This is partially due to competition from food consumption and electric vehicles (EVs), which will be discussed in a later section. Nevertheless, that 8% still translates into roughly 0.23mn bpd of production, a considerable absolute amount. RNG to see demand build up in the power sector Another promising advanced biofuel which is set for growth is renewable natural gas (RNG), or biogas that has been upgraded to replace fossil gas. RNG production capacity in the US increased at a compound annual rate of 35% between 2017 and 2021, thanks to $1.7bn of investment from oil and gas companies. Looking forward, RNG demand is projected to jump from 0.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) today to between 2.3 and 3.2 Tcf in 2040, according to BNEF. The fuel is forecast to be capable of displacing 6-12% of the US natural gas demand. RNG can be produced from various sources. Landfill has the strongest supply and cost advantage – most landfill RNG projects can be economical at $10/MMBtu or lower; landfill accounts for more than 60% of the RNG credits generated under the RFS and more than 90% of the RNG credits under the LCFS. In contrast, RNG produced from manure is more costly – at $30/MMBtu or higher – but remains attractive under the LCFS as it offers one of the lowest carbon intensities of less than -300 gCO2e/MJ. Importantly, although RNG demand from transportation dominates now, the majority of demand for RNG by 2040 will come from the power sector. In California, where the LCFS is advanced, RNG already contributes to 98% of natural gas used for transportation, mostly in municipal buses and trucking. The can add risks to future project returns if the produced RNG cannot be contracted in time. There is a potential in the long term for more RNG to be used in shipping, though it will encounter competition from other biofuels or synthetic fuels. RNG producers are starting to pivot their focus away from the transport sector. Archaea Energy is aiming to sell its RNG to natural gas utilities through long-term offtake agreements. The company plans to allocate 65% of its RNG production to non-transport applications. Admittedly, electricity generation from RNG today is more expensive than from conventional gas and the contribution of RNG to the grid is limited. Yet demand is likely to be sustained in the future, driven by climate commitments from commercial/residential customers and precuring requirements set for utilities. California now mandates utility company SoCalGas to increase RNG’s share of gas deliveries from 4% in 2021 to 12.5% by 2030. ­Oregon passed legislation to allow RNG to account for 30% of a utility’s purchases by 2045; the state is also letting utilities recover prudently incurred costs to meet the target. A handful of other states are considering similar policies. Outlook for US renewable natural gas demand Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance   The favourable outlook for RNG/biogas can also augment the production of bio-fertilisers, which can be generated from the waste from biogas production. This will help meet the rising demand for bio-fertilisers in the US, spurred by growing preferences for organic food, as well as concerns over the likely harmful effects of chemical fertilisers on both health and the environment. US to pioneer in BECCS development The US is poised to lead the deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) technology, a high-potential application of bioenergy. BECCS involves converting biomass to heat, electricity, or liquid fuels while capturing and storing the CO2 that is emitted during the conversion process. Since the growing of plant biomass absorbs CO2, BECCS can achieve net negative emissions when the emitted CO2 from bioenergy generation is permanently stored. Indeed, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted in its most recent report the need for carbon removal technologies for the world to reach net-zero emissions. The US is already a front-runner in CCS – it is home to 36 of the 71 new CCS projects added worldwide during the first nine months of 2021. On top of this, several BECCS networks are emerging in the Midwest thanks to lower costs of bioethanol production. Summit Carbon Solutions, for instance, is progressing with a project to link more than 30 ethanol biorefineries across Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. With a total potential capturing capacity of 8 Mtpa, the network would be the largest of its kind globally. Valero Energy and BlackRock are partnering with Navigator Energy Services to develop an industrial-scale CCS network that would connect biorefineries and other industrial plants across five Midwest states. The challenges facing bioenergy The use of bioenergy is not without controversy. The main challenge is the negative impact of bioenergy generation from excessive land use. From an environmental point of view, growing feedstocks such as soybeans and corn can lead to more deforestation, degradation of soil, and harmful changes to ecosystems. From a social point of view, despite yield growth potentials, the more feedstock is used for biofuels, the less there will be for food production. This has been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, which has disrupted the global food supply chain as both countries are major exporters of several leading crops. Hence, concerns have arisen in the US that the increasing use of crops for biofuels will limit food supply and add pressure to food prices. To tackle the problem in the long term, there needs to be a switch away from conventional, food-based biofuel feedstocks to advanced biofuels which use non-food crops, municipal solid waste, and agricultural and forest residues. The IEA forests that 60% of the global bioenergy supply in 2050 will need to come from sources that do not need dedicated land use to achieve net-zero emissions. Accelerating advanced biofuel production requires stronger incentives compared to those for conventional biofuels. In the US, the federal Biomass Crop Assistance Program provides financial assistance to producers of advanced biofuel feedstock. The Biden administration has also included in its FY23 budget $245m to accelerate the R&D of next-generation biofuel technologies. Another challenge is that the traditional use of bioenergy (burning wood or traditional charcoal) remains controversial as it can cause more emissions and deforestation. The EU still categorises bioenergy as green in its Taxonomy, but has strengthened the criteria to exclude certain forms of wooden biomass from qualifying as “renewable”. In the US, the EPA sees bioenergy as a cleaner fuel, while also recognising its negative potential if not managed well. Moreover, bioenergy-based solutions face scepticism that the supply chain – which involves biomass growing, transportation, storage, and processing – can emit more CO2 and harm the environment. That is why more precise monitoring and reporting of life-cycle emissions along a bioenergy technology’s supply chain needs to be in place. Finally, competing low-carbon technologies can complicate the growth of bioenergy. In the transport sector, the massive adoption of EVs will be a major threat to the demand for biofuels. As mentioned above, RNG developers are expanding their business footprint to the power sector, though these developers will likely encounter competition from renewable energy. Nonetheless, biofuels are still likely to maintain their niche in transportation, especially in heavy-duty trucks and aeroplanes, as it will be challenging for EVs to provide long-haul services without a step-change in technology. Global bioenergy supply in the Net-Zero by 2050 Scenario, 2010-50 Source: International Energy Agency Read this article on THINK TagsUnited States Renewables Net zero Energy Transition Biofuels Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Or just a blip? Gold has very much fallen out of favour over the last month as it fell 10% on the back of coming within a whisker of $2,000. But has something changed? We’ve seen plenty of risk aversion in the markets over the last 24 hours, with stock markets falling heavily, and rather than being particularly supportive for the dollar, it’s gold that has performed well which hasn’t really been the case in recent weeks. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM Perhaps that’s because higher inflation and therefore interest rate expectations have been behind all of the gloom in the markets, which is typically bullish for the dollar. Whereas the last 24 hours seem to have seen a shift. Rather than interest rates, it’s economic fears that are driving the negativity in the markets. Higher inflation is squeezing margins which means higher prices. And the Fed has gone from anticipating a soft landing, to softish and now just a safe one. That shouldn’t fill anyone with confidence. And maybe that’s why we’re seeing investors move back towards gold. Of course, we’ve seen plenty of big sentiment swings in the markets, especially this year, so that could change. But it’s possible that gold may be back in favour. The first test of this comes around $1,850 which has been support and resistance in the past and coincides with the upper end of the 55/89-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. This is followed by $1,875-1,900, a break of which would be a strong signal. A break back below $1,800 on the other hand would suggest quite the opposite unless accompanied by very positive economic news which seems unlikely at this point. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Walmart started the slide as it missed EPS on Tuesday. Target then suffered a collapse on Wednesday after it missed. Retail stocks led the entire market lower on Wednesday. First Walmart (WMT) and then Target (TGT) gave us exactly the picture that the retail sales number failed to do. Investors got somewhat excited as the retail sales number looked reasonably strong earlier this week. We had mentioned in our commentary that this was largely due to inflation, and it was a lagged report anyway. However, investors chose to take the positives. This optimism was dramatically ruptured on Wednesday when Target released earnings and went max bearish on costs and outlook. Walmart had teed this up Tuesday, but Target really rattled cages. Walmart Earnings Walmart's revenue number actually topped analyst estimates of $140.3 billion, coming in just over $2 billion ahead of analysts' estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) at $1.30 missed the expected $1.48. Margins were hit by rising costs and led Walmart's CEO to say, "US inflation levels, particularly in food and fuel, created more pressure on margin mix and operating costs than expected. We’re adjusting and will balance the needs of our customers for value with the need to deliver profit growth for our future." Walmart stock closed 11% lower on Tuesday, pretty bad but not even close to its competitor. Target Earnings Walmart put us on notice, but things were about to get really ugly. TGT stock fell the most since the 1987 Black Monday crash. TGT stock ended Wednesday down by 25%. Target also beat on revenue, $25.2 billion versus $24.5 billion expected. Earnings per share though also suffered from lower margins. Rising costs are again to blame here. EPS was $2.19 versus $3.06 expected. Profit margins fell to 6% from 8% previously. “We were less profitable than we expected to be, or intend to be over time,” CEO Brian Cornell said in a briefing. “Looking ahead, it’s clear that many of these cost pressures will persist in the near term.” Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM As if things were not bad enough on Wednesday, another retailer cut guidance, citing costs and inflationary concerns. This time it was Bath & Body Works. This does at least set up a contrarian trade possibility for next week. More retailers report next week such as Costco (COST), Dollar General (DG), Best Buy (BBY) and Big Lots (BIG). We are at max bearishness for retail now. Any outperformance or bullish outlooks will see a massive rally in our opinion. The risk reward trade is skewed higher. We all expect more of the same. Walmart, Target Key Takeaways Consumer demand is solid. Both companies reported revenue ahead of analyst forecasts. The US consumer is still spending despite rising prices. So far so good. Target did say though that discretionary items saw less interest from consumers who chose instead to focus on lower ticket items. These carry lower margins for retailers. Despite spending holding up, we already are witnessing a shift in consumer spending patterns to lower-cost items. This will continue to hit margins going forward for retailers. Eventually, persistent inflation will lead to consumers cutting back on spending across all areas. Last week's consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan showed consumer confidence at the lowest level since 2011. Consumers are spending for now, but they know what is coming. Target Stock Forecast Get ready for some serious range expansion. As the legend that is Stanley Druckenmiller puts it, when you get range expansion, the market is preparing for a move in that direction. Well off you go, next stop $100 with a stop at $125 on the way. This coming recession now looks more and more likely. Back in 2019 before the pandemic, Target was trading around $80 to $110. That was without a recession! Target (TGT) stock chart, weekly Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Walmart Stock Forecast We can see our first target (excuse the pun) in the March 2020 area marked uncertainty and volatility. WMT will trade toward here. After that, it is less clear. WMT is the king of adapting to the market and to consumer demand. It may be better positioned than most to ride out the coming inflationary recession. WMT stock chart, daily

UK retail volumes increased in April, though the overall trend is fairly stagnant. Confidence is now at all-time lows and that's likely to help produce a negative second quarter growth reading. Nevertheless, a large savings buffer and a solid jobs market means a severe recession is not inevitable Source: iStock   UK retail sales bounced more than we’d expected in April, though the overall trend appears to be one of stagnation. The 1.4% increase in sales volumes last month followed two consecutive falls, and it’s worth bearing in mind that these figures have always been volatile even pre-Covid. A one standard deviation monthly change in sales was around 1% pre-pandemic. Big picture, overall retail spending is still down slightly on levels seen during last autumn, which is mainly due to a noticeable downtrend in online sales. These are down by roughly 5% on the third quarter of last year. While it’s tempting to ascribe this to the increase in the cost of living, we think it at least partly reflects consumers rebalancing spending away from goods and back towards services. Online sales have slipped over recent months Source: Macrobond, ING   Still, the outlook is undoubtedly challenging. Today’s consumer confidence figures fell below all-time lows, and that’s especially noticeable when looking at consumers’ outlook for personal finances. Assuming consumers remain more enthusiastic about services spending rather than goods in the near-term, we suspect this cost of living squeeze will be more acutely felt on the high street and among online retailers over the coming months. So despite the latest bounce in retail sales, we still narrowly suspect the economy will experience negative growth this quarter – though if it happens it will be more down to falling health output and the effect of the extra bank holiday, than the deteriorating consumer story. A more severe downturn may still be avoided if consumers dip into their pool of savings accumulated through the pandemic, which amount to around 8% of GDP in excess of what we’d have expected had Covid not happened - the major caveat of course being that these are more heavily concentrated among higher-income workers. The jobs market also remains pretty solid, and the potential for labour hoarding amid worker shortages suggests redundancies will probably remain low for time being. UK consumer confidence is at record lows Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The US equities closed Thursday’s session in the negative following a choppy trading session, as investors’ hearts pounded between buying the dip, or selling further on recession fear. The US 10-year yield declined yesterday, and the sharp retreat in the US yields gave a boost to gold, raising question on whether the gold rally could be sustained, and if yes, how high could it extend. The dollar gave back gains, letting the EURUSD and GBPUSD rally, but the gains may remain short-lived if the dollar skew in market pricing continues. Tesla got kicked out of the S&P’s ESG index, which could have implications on its long-term price potential   On the individual stocks, news that Michal Burry opened a bet against Apple heated conversations about whether Apple is a good ‘short’. And finally, Tesla got kicked out of the S&P’s ESG index, which could have implications on its long-term price potential. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Market update 1:20 Is Apple a good stock to short? 3:50 US yields boosted gold. Is gold rally sustainable? 6:25 FX update: euro, pound up on softer dollar 7:58 Tesla out of S&P ESG index: what does it mean for stock performance? Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Summary:  The commodity sector continued to find support this past week, despite the hurricane sweeping across global stock markets where the S&P 500 so far has recorded its fourth biggest drawdown since 2010. Gains this past week were concentrated in industrial and precious metals - sectors that have suffered setbacks during the past two months. In addition, the risk of a global food crisis continues to support the agriculture sector while a tight fuel-product market kept crude oil range bound despite economic growth worries. The commodity sector continued to find support this past week, despite the hurricane sweeping across global stock markets. US stocks posted their biggest daily drop in almost two years on Wednesday, driven by surging inflation, weak earnings and the prospect of aggressive monetary policy tightening hurting economic growth. Nevertheless, the Bloomberg Commodity Spot index managed to climb by 1.6% and, while we are seeing the fourth biggest drawdown in the S&P 500 since 2010, the commodity sector continues to highlight the need for both supply and demand to keep prices stable. With the supply of many key commodities – from grains and coffee to fuel products and some industrial metals – being challenged, the sector is likely to remain supported despite softer growth; especially considering the prospect for a government-supported stimulus boost to a post-lockdown China. Growth in the country has been increasingly challenged by its stubborn adherence to the dynamic zero-Covid policy despite mounting economic and social costs. Gains this past week were concentrated in industrial and precious metals – sectors that have suffered setbacks during the past two months. In addition, the risk of a global food crisis continues to rise, with Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and poor weather conditions being the main culprits for the disruption to a lower supply of key food commodities. The grains sector hit a fresh record high with the Bloomberg Grains Spot Index sprinting to a +30% gain on the year. Soybeans led the rally, followed by wheat with corn registering a small loss in the week. Global worries about a food crisis persist with disruptions in shipments from the Ukraine, one of the world’s most important supplier of high-quality wheat and sunflower oil causing ripples around the world. Ukrainian farmers have almost completed the sowing of spring wheat for the 2022 harvest and the overall rate of this year's spring crop sowing is 25% lower than at the same date in 2021, the agriculture ministry said on Friday. A couple of positive supply news, however, helped ease but by no means remove worries about a global food crisis. Palm oil slumped after Indonesia ended its short-lived export ban. Wheat which earlier in the week surge to fresh highs in Europe and the US on worries about supplies from India saw prices ease on forecast for a bumper crop year in Russia. However, comments from agriculture analysis firm Gro Intelligence that the world only has 10 weeks’ worth of wheat consumption in reserve will keep prices supported. At least until we get some more clarity over production levels in Europe and North America, both areas that have seen a challenging weather-related start to the growing season.In our latest industrial metal-focused update, we wrote that the precious metals sector was looking to China for a rebound and, indeed, this week saw some of the signals that China is starting to turn more supportive. Before then, the Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index had lost 25% since the early March peak, with the main catalysts – aside from global growth worries – being China and its zero-Covid policy. Outbreaks in Shanghai and Beijing have been met with a prolonged period of lockdown, hurting economic growth and creating major bottlenecks across global supply chains.This week in China, we saw retail sales slump 11% and youth unemployment hit a record 18.2%, as well as economists forecasting downgraded GDP. Responding to these developments on Friday, Chinese banks cut their 5-year loan rate by a record 0.15 basis points. Keep in mind, this is happening while the rest of the world is going in the opposite direction, and it highlights the Chinese government’s willingness to support the economy. More support will likely follow as the government seeks to support infrastructure and property projects, which are both critical for industrial metal demand.Around the timing of the early March peak in prices, stock levels of the four major industrial metals held at warehouses monitored by the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 1.77 million tons. Instead of rising as demand according to the price action showed weakness, this level has continued to fall, reaching 1.43 million tons this week – a 19% decline during this time.It highlights our view that a global economic slowdown does not prevent industrial metals from moving higher, despite supply potentially struggling to keep up with demand not only from China, but also from the energy transition away from fossil fuels. A transition that, in name, is green but actually is very black when you consider the number of different metals that are needed in the process. These range from aluminum, copper and nickel to more exotic metals like rare earth minerals, cobalt and lithium.High-Grade Copper: Despite the month-long correction, HG copper remains rangebound, having so far failed to properly challenge key support in the $4 per pound area. As it stands, the recovery this week has taken HG copper back to its 21-day moving average, with a break above signaling a loss of negative price momentum. If realised, it may soon force speculators to cover a net short which, in the week to May 10, doubled to reach a two-year high at 17.7k lots or 201k metric tons. Source: Saxo Group Gold, in a downtrend since mid-April, found a fresh bid amid continued turbulence across global stock markets. During the past month, gold suffered from the double blow of a stronger dollar and the FOMC signaling an aggressive pace of future rate hikes to combat inflation at the highest level in decades. This is fine if the economy does not suffer too much of a setback, thereby raising the risk of recession. What changed this week has been dismal earnings news from large US retailers raising the risk of a deeper than expected economic slump.We maintain a bullish outlook for gold, given the need to diversify amid a troubled stock market and the mentioned potential increased risk of a FOMC policy mistake driving yields and the dollar lower. From the chart below, gold has its work cut out, and a great deal of work is needed to mend the damage done during the past month. However, the first sign of improvement has been the break above the 200-day moving average at $1839 – with the next big challenge being $1868, the 38.2% retracement of the 210-dollar April to May correction.Silver, supported by the bounce across industrial metals, seems to have found its footing following a 22% correction, which – at one point – extended below previous support around $21.50. With speculators having cut their positions to neutral, any renewed upside momentum is likely to attract fresh buying from underexposed funds. Crude oil spent most of the week challenging the upper end of the trading range that has prevailed for the past six weeks. However, relative calm market action during this time has been hiding a market in continued turmoil where major opposing forces have managed to keep it rangebound. During this time, the U.S. government has injected millions of barrels in a failed attempt to suppress the price while Chinese demand has suffered due to its zero-Covid strategy.The fact the market has not fallen below $100 highlights the underlying strength with tight supply of key fuels, self-sanctioning of Russian crude oil, OPEC struggling to increase production and unrest in Libya all supporting the market. With China potentially starting to ease lockdowns and with unrest in Libya still growing, the short-term price risk remains firmly skewed to higher prices.During the past few weeks, the focus has turned from a rangebound crude oil market to the product market where the cost of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel have surged to levels not seen in years (if ever). The combination of refinery maintenance, a post pandemic reduction in capacity as well as self-sanctioning of Russian products have all led to incredible tight markets. Especially in North American refineries, where they are running flat out to produce what they can and, in turn, benefitting from mouthwatering margins.So, despite the prospect for slower global economic growth, the price of crude oil remains supported. If we stick to our wide $90 to $120 range call for Brent during the current quarter, while still considering structural issues (most importantly the continued level of underinvestment and OPEC’s struggle to increase production), this will continue to support prices over the coming quarters. US natural gas had another rollercoaster week, ending up off the highs after twice finding resistance around $8.5/therm. The current price is up by 200% compared to the same time last year, with record exports via LNG, flat production growth and a recent heatwave across the southern states increasing demand for cooling. However, the weekly injection of 89 billion cubic feet (bcf) to 1732 bcf was in line with expectations and helped reduce the deficit to the 5-year average to 15.2%. In addition, the milder weather ahead and Europe suffering from a temporary bout of LNG indigestion could suggest a period of stable prices. However, overall rising global demand and a sharp discount to prices in Europe and Asia is likely to prevent any significant weakness during the coming months. Source: Saxo Bank

After a brutal slide over the past two months, the Japanese yen is showing some bounce in its step. Japanese yen bounces back The yen registered 10 straight losing weeks but finally ended that nasty streak last week, with gains of about one per cent. Barring any surprises today, the yen will repeat with another strong week. On Thursday, USD/JPY dropped to 127.02, its lowest level since late April. Has the yen turned the corner? The US dollar pummelled the yen in the months of March and April, and earlier this month USD/JPY touched 131.34, its highest level in some 20 years. The yen’s descent was rapid and drew warnings from the BoJ and Japan’s Ministry of Finance. There was speculation that the exchange rate was nearing an unknown ‘line in the sand’, which if breached, would trigger an intervention to prop up the yen (clearly, 130 was not that line in the sand). The yen’s movement is largely dependent on the US/Japan rate differential. With the BoJ showing no hesitation to intervene in order to defend its yield curve, the yen has been at the mercy of the direction of US yields. Over the past few months, yields have been generally going up, which has pushed the yen sharply lower. The Federal Reserve remains in aggressive mode, but with concerns of stagflation and a possible recession, the Fed may have to ease up on the pace and size of its rate hikes, which would weigh on US yields, thus boosting the yen. The recent turbulence in the stock markets, which has seen equities fall sharply, has benefited the yen, which traditionally acts as a safe-haven asset. The yen may have flexed some muscle, but I would still consider yen risk tilted to the downside. The US economy remains in good shape, and the US dollar is also a safe-haven asset. If the Ukraine war continues to cause increases in energy and food prices, risk appetite would fall and investors would likely flock to the safety of the US dollar. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is testing resistance at 1.2938, followed by resistance at 1.3123 There is support at 1.3000 and 1.2918 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Several European Central Bank officials have become more vocal, showing their concern about the weakening euro. As much as we think that these concerns are overdone, strengthening the euro could for the ECB currently be the single most efficient way to temper inflation quickly   In recent days, ECB officials have become more vocal with their concerns about the weak euro. French central bank governor, Villeroy de Galhau, pointed out that a weaker euro would undermine the ECB’s goal of price stability. ECB Executive Board member, Isabel Schnabel, was quoted saying that the ECB was closely monitoring the impact of the weaker euro on inflation. This is in stark contrast with the minutes of the ECB meeting in April, when the exchange rate was only mentioned four times. There was also market speculation that major central banks could go for a kind of Plaza Agreement, using coordinated action and even fx interventions to stop the US dollar from strengthening further and the euro from weakening further. How much of a concern should the recent weakening of the euro really be for the ECB? Since the last ECB staff projections in March, the euro has lost some 5% against the US dollar. The trade weighted euro exchange rate lost almost 2%. However, compared with one year ago, the euro has depreciated by more than 13% vis-à-vis the US dollar and around 6% in trade-weighted terms. In normal times, this weakening of the currency would have been a welcome relief for eurozone exports but at the current juncture it is an additional inflation concern. According to standard estimates, the euro depreciation since March could add another 10 percentage points on inflation this year and 20pp next year. However, at a time in which the main inflationary drivers are energy and commodity prices, which are invoiced in US dollar, the impact of the weaker euro on inflation might be even stronger. With headline inflation rates above 7%, it is hard to see why some ECB officials are concerned about a few additional percentage points. The weak euro might not be the reason for high inflation but it is at least reinforcing it. The main reason why ECB officials have become more vocal on the exchange rate could be the fact that even if higher policy rates will not bring down energy prices or fill containers in Asia, higher policy rates could strengthen the euro. The so-called exchange rate channel could at the current juncture be the most, and probably only, efficient way to ease inflationary pressures relatively quickly. This is why the hawks at the ECB might be inclined to use the currency as an argument to support a 50bp rate hike in July and strong forward guidance that more rate hikes are to come. Expect more than the four references to the exchange rate at the April meeting in the coming weeks ahead of the ECB’s 9 June meeting. Read this article on THINK TagsMonetary policy Eurozone ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary:  Today we look at the bounce in the US market on Friday from a key technical level near 3,800 in the S&P 500, just after the market had taken out recent cycle support levels. Meanwhile, lower US treasury yields and a squeeze on USD longs have helped drive a modest bounce in sentiment, though we remain very cautious. Also today: AI pipedreams, the latest on global food concerns, natural gas, FX, gold, earnings ahead this week, how to understand equity valuations, using Zoom Video Communications as an example and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

Summary: What is the Cardano Platform and how does it work? Advantages of the Cardano exchange. Cardano's past, present and future price positions. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP  Cardano’s platform Cardano’s mission is to be a blockchain for innovators, visionaries and changemakers, it has the tools and technologies required to create possibilities to bring about positive global change for the many, as well as the few. The Cardano platform was founded in 2015 and launched in 2017. The platform token “ADA” has a maximum supply of 45 billion ADA, a circulating supply of more than 33.7 billion and a market capitalisation of more than $18.25 billion. The cardano platform is a proof-of-stake blockchain, it was the first to be founded on peer-review research and was developed through evidence-based methods. The blockchain combines pioneering technologies to provide unparalleled sustainability and security to decentralised systems, applications and technologies. Proof-of-stake refers to a type of consensus mechanism used to validate cryptocurrency transactions. Cardano’s aim for their platform Cardano’s aim is to be an enabling force for positive change and progress, in order to achieve this they have a leading team of engineers. The platform exists to redistribute power from the unaccountable to the margins and the individuals. Cardano's platform integrations and protocol implementations are first researched, mathematically modelled, tested and challenged before they are specified. The Cardano platform is designed to reward those who act in the best of the network and are also acting in their own best interests. The scalability and sustainability combination allows Cardano to achieve the throughput required to meet the ever changing demand of the global systems: logistics, societal, financial and identity. Some of the uses of the Cardano platform and ADA token: Send, create and receive NFTs and native tokens. Set up and manage your own staking pool on Cardano. Users are able to create their own smart contracts. Users can integrate their Cardano technology into their existing websites and platforms. ADA tokens can be used to vote on governance proposals, those that distribute treasury funds in particular. ADA tokens can be staked to earn rewards. Ouroboros and Cardano Cardano is the first blockchain to implement the Ouroboros protocol. Ouroboros is the first peer-reviewed, verifiably secure blockchain protocol, which enables Cardano’s decentralisation and allows it to scale global requirements sustainably without compromising security crucially. Advantages of investing in Cardano The Ouroboros blockchain protocol. Evidence-based development: the evidence-based methods used to create the Cardano blockchain is a combination of methods, which are normally found in critical high-stake applications, along with an agile approach, which helps the project remain responsive and adaptable to new innovations and emerging requirements. Security: when using the cardano platform, it is possible for users who have never met or transacted before to interact and transact with a high level of security. The Cardano platform builds trust where there otherwise may not be any, which opens up doors to many more markets and opportunities. Incentivised participation: Cardano is an open-source project developed through open participation. Cardano has an incentive mechanism to ensure network health and longevity, the mechanism rewards users for their participation, either through stake delegators or as stake pool operators. The governance system gives all users a voice, ADA holders can submit or vote proposals on proposals to improve the platform. Scalable and sustainable: Ouroboros allows the Cardano platform to scale global requirements with minimal energy requirements. Cardano's performance-energy is achieved through a combination of novel approaches namely, side chains, multi-ledger and parallel transaction processing through multi-party state channels. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News Past, present and future prices of Cardano After the launch of ADA, the original price spiked and then fell back down the pre-launch levels. It took Cardano’s ADA a couple of years to truly see any real price change. In 2021 Cardano reached a maximum price of more than $2.77, but has since been on a declining streak. Currently the cryptocurrency markets have been declining, the current economic conditions are sending investors searching for safe-haven assets, a category that cryptocurrencies do not fall under, this is causing a sell-off investor sentiment. Some analysts believe that the price of ADA will fluctuate but will see an increase, and thereafter consistently increase until 2030 wherein the value is expected to reach around $13.55. However, predicting the future value of cryptocurrencies is difficult due to the volatility of the markets they operate in. ADA Price Chart Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, cardano.org, coinbase.com, changelly.com  

A quiet day for oil markets Oil prices edged higher on Friday in New York, as the persistent squeeze in refined petroleum products in the US, and ever-present Ukraine/Russia risk underpinned prices, with China slowdown and US recession noise limiting gains. Mind you, in one article I read this morning, China’s recovery hopes were supporting oil while China’s slowdown hopes were capping gains. I guess it’s not just equity markets that are very confused right now. I do note, though, that the Brent crude premium over WTI reasserted itself into the end of the week, so perhaps the worst of the US diesel and gasoline squeeze is passed for now. Brent crude rose by 1.10% to USD 112.55 on Friday, gaining another 0.70% to USD 113.30 a barrel in Asian trading. WTI rose 0.40% to USD 110.55 on Friday, gaining another 0.35% to USD 110.90 a barrel today. The price action is consistent with a market that is not strongly leaning one way or another at the moment. Overall, I am expecting Brent crude to bounce around in a USD 111.00 to USD 117.00 range this week Brent crude has resistance at USD 116.00 and support at USD 111.50 a barrel. WTI has resistance at USD 113.00 and USD 116.00 a barrel, with support at USD 108.00. Overall, I am expecting Brent crude to bounce around in a USD 111.00 to USD 117.00 range this week. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News Gold rises on weaker US dollar Gold prices rose on Friday, climbing just 0.24% to USD 1844.00 an ounce. In Asia, they have gained 0.42% to USD 1854.00 an ounce. Although gold’s rally has been impressive over the past week, it has yet to be proven that it is not just the result of a weaker US dollar. The true test of its resolve will be its ability to maintain gains when the US dollar starts rising again. Nevertheless, the technical picture is swinging back to a further test of the upside with resistance at USD 1860.00 and then USD 1885.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. Support is at USD 1845.00 and USD 1840.00, followed by USD 1832.00 an ounce. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Learn more on Oanda

AUD A broadly weaker US dollar, the easing of restrictions in China and expectations of a more rapid pace of tightening by the RBA boosted the Australian currency last week. The Australian dollar was one of the best performing currencies in the G10, briefly rallying through the 0.71 level against the US dollar this morning. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting minutes showed that the board is prepared to raise rates by larger increments at upcoming meetings in order to tame inflation. The minutes also showed that inflation is expected to increase further in the near-term, which has raised expectations in favour of more aggressive tightening. The latest economic data supports these expectations, with Australia’s unemployment rate falling to 3.9% in April, the lowest since August 1974. The most important event for AUD this week will likely be the release of the May preliminary PMIs on Tuesday, which are expected to remain in expansionary territory. On Friday, April retail sales will be published. Learn more on Ebury CAD The Canadian dollar ended the week modestly higher against the US dollar as Canadian inflation reached a three-decade high, although the currency underperformed most of its G10 peers. Canada’s April inflation surprised to the upside, reaching a 31-year high of 6.8%. The rise in commodity prices, mainly due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, continues to pressure inflation higher. But this is not the only reason and it seems that price pressure is spreading to more components, as core inflation rose to a record high of 5.8%. This data reinforced expectations of another 50 basis point hike at the Bank of Canada’s June meeting, which has continued to provide a bit of support for the Canadian dollar. On Thursday, March retail sales will be published. Aside from that, CAD is likely to be driven by events elsewhere. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM CNY Last week was a turning point for the yuan, with the USD/CNY pair returning to early-May levels amid a weaker US dollar and improving headlines out of China. News on the Covid front has taken a turn for the better. Shanghai has begun lifting some of its restrictions, with the city set to exit lockdown at the start of next month. Beijing has also continued to resist calls for a lockdown, despite another increase in virus caseloads. Last week’s 15 basis point cut to the PBoC’s 5-year loan prime rate, a reference rate for mortgages, has also raised hopes of an economic revival. The scale of the rate adjustment was larger than expected, and suggests China is serious in its efforts to support the struggling housing sector. Sentiment toward China received an additional boost from President Biden’s suggestions that the US may lift some of the Trump-era tariffs. The noises in that regard have been getting louder in the past few weeks, but the decision itself is not an easy one considering the geopolitical landscape in Asia and doubts about benefits to Americans from such a change. This week we’ll focus primarily on news from China’s Covid front as well as any headlines from president Biden’s trip to Asia, a first since he took office. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM To stay up to date with our publications, please choose one of the below: 📩 Click here to receive the latest market updates👉 Our LinkedIn page for the latest newsâœÂï¸Â Our Blog page for other FX market reports 🔊 Stay up to date with our podcast FXTalk

ECB President Lagarde's hawkish comments have dragged the pound higher. BOE's Bailey is set to cool expectations with potential recession warnings. The four-hour chart shows that GBP/USD is entering overbought territory. GBP/USD’s short-term bullishness looks like a selling opportunity – the currency pair has been extending its gains, somewhat influenced by the strengthening euro, which got a boost from ECB President Christine Lagarde. She said that the bank could raise rates by 50 bps by September, a relatively aggressive timeline. There is a feeling that central banks are catching up with the hawkish US Federal Reserve and raising rates quickly. The ECB's determination is boosting the euro and also dragging the pound higher on the way. But is it justified? Recession warnings Later in the day, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to speak about monetary policy, and he will likely reiterate his stance that the BOE is ready to tighten its policy to curb inflation. We know that another 50 bps or so of rate hikes are coming. On the other hand, Bailey warned that price shocks could already send the British economy into recession, The cost-of-living crisis is, therefore, self–correcting. Higher prices curb expenditure, lower growth, raise unemployment and eventually push inflation lower. That means the scope for the BOE to further hike rates is limited. My analysis above implies that if Bailey merely repeats his warnings – if so the current upside move of the pound could be reversed. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM GBP/USD Technical Analysis The technicals back it up. Initially, they give GBP/USD scope to rise toward 1.2640, May's high, but not to the next big round level at 1.27. The 4h-RSI is almost at 70, and moving some 100 pips from current levels would put it in overbought territory. There is a greater chance of a climb down to support at 1.2545 than an upside move. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Summary:  The US dollar found only very modest support on Friday as US equity markets plumbed new cycle depths. As risk sentiment rebounded Friday and carried through higher to start the week today, the USD selling has become more aggressive. The fact that risk sentiment has only rebounded since Friday while the US dollar has been selling off for nearly two weeks suggests that US treasury yields, which peaked slightly ahead of the USD, may be the dominant market driver. FX Trading focus: Rates trump risk sentiment as USD driver. As noted on Friday, the near-term focus for FX traders is where and when the USD finds support, if it is going to find support. I suspect that the USD will only properly roll over for the cycle once the Fed has turned back toward easing – at least in a relatively sense, and perhaps this only becomes clear as a reduction in the perceived end-point of this rate hike cycle. In that sense, the market seems in a rush to declare that we have reached that point and that inflation is set to fade from here. Breakeven inflation rates peaked back In late March and have really swooned since the beginning of May. Yields at the short end of the US yield curve remain elevated, but are below the peak reached just before Fed Chair Powell took jumbo hikes of greater than fifty basis points off the table at the May 4 FOMC meeting. The longer end of the US yield curve has consolidated even more and I suspect the combination of the easing back of US yields and inflation expectations, combined with hefty long-USD speculative positioning, that have the USD on its back foot. I have a hard time that peak Fed rate expectations are in the rear view mirror a week before actual quantitative tightening has even begun, but let’s see From here, there is still some room for the USD to fall further without reversing the well-established bull trend, but the comfortable (for USD bulls) portion of that room has been about reduced by half in today’s trade. The yield-fixated USDJPY is in its own category (given BoJ yield-cap policy and the enormity of the move since the pair broke above the 116.35 range top back in March) . For other major USD pairs, the next major area for EURUSD is into 1.0800+, for USDCHF is 0.09525, for USDCAD last gasp support is into 1.2660-1.2715, AUDUSD is discussed below. GBPUSD has a little resistance at the 1.2638 pivot high, but has a lot more wood to chop to suggest a trend reversal, as this downtrend started on the break below 1.3000. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Chart: AUDUSD The AUDUSD has carried through higher after bobbing back above the pivotal 0.7000 level, one that has served as both support and resistance on many occasions since early 2019. Supporting the AUD are the structural shift in the country’s external imbalances for the better, the recent rebound in risk sentiment, a solid recovery in some industrial metal prices associated with Australia’s traditional export mix, and hopes that China is set to stimulate. Working against the Aussie’s favor are a new left turn from the Australian government at the margin, rising concerns that the global economy is set to slow, and the risk that we are far from the end of the asset market deleveraging cycle. From here, bears, for an ideal fresh trading hook, need a quick rejection of today’s action and for the price action to dip back below 0.7000. On the flipside, if this rally persists into 0.7250+ area (most recent major pivot high in that area and just ahead of the 200-day moving average) the latest down-wave would have been rejected and this would suggest the softening up of the bearish risk has been neutralized for now – the next figure (100 pips) in either direction looks very important here for the pair. Source: Saxo Group ECB President Lagarde was out jawboning today on rate outlook, with her comments largely rhyming with market expectations, therefore triggering a modest pick-up from intraday lows in forward ECB expectations, but a rather more pronounced reaction in the euro itself, especially as EURUSD cleared the local pivot high of 1.0642. She basically spelled out that the ECB will hike in July due to the winding down of asset purchases and in saying that a negative interest rate policy will be over by late Q3, suggests that another hike will come at the September meeting. As background concerns continue to plague the Chinese economic outlook and a rise in Beijing Covid case counts has driven new fears of widening lock downs there, China has been out today touting new measures to encourage activity resumption elsewhere and other easing measures in the works, including SME loans and a tax cut on car purchases. Sentiment in general has also gotten a boost from increasing chatter that US President Biden could be set to roll back some of the China tariffs in the all-out effort to get inflation readings down ahead of the US mid-term election in November. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.For the trend window the FX Board operates with, the USD bull-trend has effectively been erased. As emphasized above, some USD charts still have more room to allow the USD to consolidated lower, but clearly USD bulls are down if not yet out. Otherwise, it is clear we are in flux when no trend reading has an absolute valuer greater than 2 save for NOK. By the way, Poland’s prime minister has been the first politician (that I have noticed) to call for Norway to share its windfall gains from high energy prices. Interesting to watch the political optics on this issue – certainly a forward risk for NOK. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.EURUSD is trying to cross into a positive trend reading today, but note that the chart context is important for trend status and the downtrend is so entrenched that it is too early to bite on this move. Likewise for USDCHF, although the USDCAD chart looks more credibly bearish on a weak close today. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – US Apr. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 1415 – ECB's Holzmann, Nagel to speak 1415 – UK Bank of England Governor Bailey to speak 1430 – ECB's Villeroy to speak at Davos 2245 – New Zealand Q1 Retail Sales  2330 – US Fed’s George (voter) to speak Source: Saxo Bank

Traders will be looking for a fresh direction when Crude Oil Inventories data is released on Wednesday WTI fell from Monday's high of around $111.90 and is trading at $109.46 in the Asian session as of writing. Oil prices are under downward pressure following EU's proposed ban on Russian oil which looks to be unconvincing. In the meantime, Russian oil continues to be exported, though the risk of price increase still remains. Traders will be looking for a fresh direction when Crude Oil Inventories data is released on Wednesday, and another meeting is scheduled next week by the bloc's leaders to further discuss the situation. Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-bears-in-control-as-eus-proposed-ban-on-russian-oil-looks-unlikely-202205240200 Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

April retail sales growth was supported by low base effects, “consumption smoothing” by domestic consumers as well as purchases by and for refugees from Ukraine. Construction output growth eased and has serious headwinds ahead. In June, the MPC may hike the main policy rate by 100bp in order to curb inflationary pressure A tight labour market should keep CPI inflation elevated in Poland Strong retail sales from a low reference base The consumer boom continues. In April, retail sales jumped by 19.0% year-on-year (ING: 16.7% YoY; consensus: 16.1% YoY). Such a strong annual growth was facilitated by a low reference base from April 2021, but that is not the only explanation for the strong reading. Retail sales, %YoY Source: GUS.   Buoyant consumer spending is supported by solid domestic demand. Soaring prices have not significantly reduced purchases as consumers continue to spend despite higher price levels. The monthly seasonally-adjusted real data for different sales categories looks robust. This is all happening despite high inflation, very poor consumer sentiment, and uncertainty caused by war. Demand for goods is fuelled by rising wages and fiscal expansion, including tax cuts.   The inflow of refugees from Ukraine is an additional boost to consumption, particularly in sales of clothing and footwear (up by 121.4% YoY). The high volatility of sales in this category is also linked to the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions.   Implied retail sales deflator increased to 12.1% YoY in April from 11.3% YoY in March. Consumer demand remains robust and high price pressures persist. Construction activity slows amid declining home sales Signs from construction are clearly less optimistic as activity softened visibly last month. Construction output rose by 9.3% YoY vs. an increase of 27.6% YoY in March (ING: 16.6%YoY; consensus: 18.7%YoY). Seasonally-adjusted data points to a 5.1% MoM decline. The decline in activity was broad-based, however, the smallest monthly drop was reported in civil engineering, due to ongoing spending of local and EU funds on infrastructure. The coming months will be tough for residential construction due to: (1) the hit to housing demand from higher interest rates and more restrictive regulations, (2) the sharp upswing in prices of materials, (3) mounting shortages of labour, including outflows of Ukrainian workers and (4) elevated uncertainty linked to the war in Ukraine. Construction output, 2015=100 (S.A.) Source: GUS. Bottom line The beginning of 2Q22 brings buoyant consumer demand and persistently high price pressures. Retail sales data, although somewhat distorted by a low reference base, points to strong consumer demand. This could fuel second-round effects (producers passing higher costs onto output prices). The scale of upward pressure on producers’ costs is reflected in the PPI index, which jumped by 23% YoY in April, so companies have higher costs, which should drive up inflation in coming months.   Data on retail sales, PPI and wages provide strong arguments for further interest rate hikes. The MPC should take further policy action in order to prevent inflation from spiralling. In June, the MPC may hike the main policy rate by 100bp. We still see the NBP reference rate at 7.5% this year and the terminal rate at 8.5%, with upside risk. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Taiwan's industrial production growth seems to be slowing down, with data revealing a monthly contraction. Export orders have also recorded a contraction on a yearly basis. China's lockdowns, Covid in Taiwan, and electricity stoppages could be reasons behind this, and these reasons are here to stay  Industrial production recorded month-on-month contraction April data seems to point to worsening growth in Taiwan. While industrial production recorded 7.5% year-on-year growth in April, it contracted 5.06% from the previous month. This pattern usually points to a change in trend. Production of semiconductors, which had been the growth engine of Taiwan's industrial production as well as GDP, recorded a mere 0.5% MoM growth rate, while other manufacturing industries showed contraction, e.g. computer and electronic goods (-21.14% MoM), LED panels (-16.63% MoM).  Mainland China lockdown, Covid in Taiwan, electricity stoppages are factors behind this The main reason behind this is that inventory levels of electronic items, particularly LED panels, are higher than usual. In Mainland China, which is a big consumer market in addition to being a manufacturing hub, demand for consumer electronics shrank during the Shanghai lockdown. The same explanation can be applied to the contraction in export orders (-5.5% YoY) released on Friday. With export orders shrinking, industrial production in the coming months could continue to contract, perhaps even showing a contraction from last year.  Covid in Taiwan is also part of the reason, as this has reduced the number of employees at work. Though the unemployment rate fell to 3.62% in April from 3.66% in March, most industries, including semiconductor manufacturing, recorded a small drop in employment in April. Electricity is also an issue. Though the government states that there is enough electricity this year, electricity generators have failed occasionally, leading to the suspension of work at some factories.  Cautiously optimistic for the rest of 2022 and monetary policy may be less aggressive The factors discussed above, which point to a changing trend in semiconductor production in Taiwan from strong to slow, are here to stay. Demand for semiconductors used in consumer electronics will be affected by the muted consumer market in Mainland China. Supply shocks from fewer workers due to Covid and electricity failures (especially over the summer) could also remain for the rest of 2022.  We are cautiously optimistic about the semiconductor industry as there is still strong demand for digital infrastructure to mitigate some of the negative factors cited above.  Central bank rate hikes were expected to follow the path of the Federal Reserve but this is less likely given this latest set of data. Though we still need more data points to confirm that the strong trend has changed in semiconductor production and therefore GDP, the central bank may be less aggressive than previously thought, and the rate hike path could therefore be flatter, with hikes of 12.5bp rather than 25bp until the negative factors fade. Read this article on THINK TagsTaiwan Semiconductors Lockdown Covid-19 Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

EUR The retreat of the ECB doves in the face of inflationary reality accelerated last week, as the hawkish Dutch member of the council suggested that not only is a July hike a near certainty, but a 50 bp hike could be on the cards. This is happening at the same time US short term rates are having trouble pushing higher, partially because so much is priced in on the part of the Federal Reserve. As a result, interest rate differentials across the Atlantic have shrunk and are no higher now than in March. This trend should be supportive for the euro and we may have already seen the bottom. This week’s PMIs should be strong and partially assuage recession fears in the US, enabling the ECB to continue its policy turnaround and focus squarely on containing inflation. Learn more on Ebury USD Strong retail sales last week confirmed that so far there is little sign that higher prices are doing much to deter the US consumer. However, it is a volatile indicator and one cannot extract a lot of information from a single print. US yields fell in sympathy with stocks, and for now the US dollar seems to have recoupled to rate differentials with the rest of the world, so it fell as well. On tap for this week is the publication of the minutes for the last meeting of the Federal Reserve, which we expect to reiterate that the next two hikes are likely to be “doubles”, i.e., 50 bp. However, all of this is already priced in by markets, and it will be difficult for US short term rates to price in any more. We think the dollar is vulnerable to a sustained pullback here. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM CHF The Swiss franc outperformed all other G10 currencies by a significant margin last week, rallying by close to 3% against the US dollar on growing speculation about monetary policy tightening in Switzerland. SNB president Jordan suggested on Wednesday that the bank was ready to act should an inflation threat materialise. Investors might have been further encouraged to bet on a shift in the SNB’s approach by a hawkish ECB, which looks ready to kick-start its rate hike cycle in July. We think that the market is perhaps a bit too aggressive, and think that the SNB would likely prefer to increase currency interventions in the near-term, before thinking about rate increases. While interventions have been relatively limited, suggesting a degree of acceptance of the currency’s strength in light of elevated inflation, the bank still seems determined to not allow the franc to appreciate too much. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM We believe the scale of the franc’s recent rally has been excessive and think it may give up some of its gains, particularly if global sentiment improves. That will be the focus for the franc this week, namely the PMI prints from the main economies, news from China, and behaviour of global equity and bond markets. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Summary:  Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex up until last Tuesday, May 17. A week where risk sentiment continued to swing between hot and cold, long end bonds held steady while the dollar showed signs of topping out. The commodity sector rallied strongly with gains in energy, grains and softs more than offsetting fading weakness in precious metals Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex up until last Tuesday, May 17. A week where risk sentiment continued to swing between hot and cold before the S&P 500 Index recorded a 2% gain on the week, long end bonds held steady while the dollar showed signs of topping out. The commodity sector rallied strongly with gains in energy, grains and softs more than offsetting fading weakness in precious metals.Latest across market updates on can be found in our daily Financial Market Quick Take here Commodities The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index jumped 5.6% on the week with risk sentiment seeing a revival supported by bouncing stocks and a softer dollar. Gains being led by energy and grains, the two strongest sectors based on current fundamentals. Most notable buying seen in crude oil, soybeans, wheat, sugar and coffee while precious and industrial metals remained challenged by the recent slump. Overall hedge funds responded to these developments by adding length for the first time in four weeks to 13 out of the 24 major commodity futures tracked in this with the combined net long rising 4% to 1.74 million lots. Energy: Money managers increased their bullish bets on WTI and Brent crude oil by 60k lots during a week where a tight product market, especially in the US, triggered a double digit rally in WTI while Brent returned to challenge resistance in the $115 area. The biggest weekly addition in six months lifted the combined net long in WTI and Brent to 469k lots, an 11-week high. Despite supporting price action, the ICE gas oil contract saw continued long liquidation with the net long slumping to a 17 month low at 73k lots, down 50% from the February peak. Metals: The metal sectors share of the total net exposure shrank to a three-year low at just 2% on a combination of net short positions being held in platinum, palladium and copper together with reduced bullish exposure in gold and silver.Speculators cut their net long in gold by 26% to an eight-month low at 54k lots while silver returned to neutral for only the second time in three years. The copper net-short stayed near a two-year high at 17.2k with short-covering being offset by long liquidation as the price rose by 2%. Highlighting the need for an even bigger bounce in order to force a change in the current weak sentiment towards copper and the industrial sector in general. The same goes for gold, which in order to turn more investor friendly, will need to break the next significant hurdle at $1868, the 38.2% retracement of the recent 210-dollar correction.Agriculture: In grains, the net long in Chicago wheat jumped by 71% to 26k lots, a 14 month high, after the price surged by 17% in response to US crop worries and after India’s export ban jolted the market. The soybean complex was mixed with buying of soybeans being offset by selling of meal and oil. In softs, funds increased their Arabica coffee net long by 51% to 29k lots, driven by short-covering, as the price jumped 11.5% on frost worries. Despite persistent worries about the outlook for production in Brazil following last year’s frost damage and current weather worries, the price has been loosing momentum in response to global demand worries. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Forex In fx, speculators maintained an unchanged dollar long position in a week where profit taking reigned as the greenback lost ground against all the currencies tracking in this update. Overall the changes were very modest with net selling of the commodity currencies being offset by MXN and another week of euro buying. These changes effectively left the aggregate dollar long against nine IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index unchanged on the week at $22.9 billion.What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming Source: Saxo Bank Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Tightening financial conditions pose headwinds for risk asset BTC. Elevated options skew shows buying put-protection is currently expensive. A bearish cross has appeared for ETH. Chart of the Week: Mind the BTC and Financial Conditions Gap BTC is first and foremost another risk asset currently, so look for its returns to be driven in large part by macro risk factors. Financial conditions have been tightening YTD on the back of rising energy prices, market corrections, and geopolitical risks.  A gap has been forming between BTC and tightening U.S. financial conditions – does BTC have some more catching “down” to do? The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) shows positive and negative values (from 1 to -1) for tighter and looser financial conditions, respectively. It tracks U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Indicators are grouped into risk (captures volatility and funding risk), credit (measures credit conditions for households and companies), and leverage (measures leverage of households and businesses). Fund Flow Tracker Aggregated exchange balances of BTC and ETH have dipped, after the sharp rebound during peak fear surrounding the recent Terra stablecoin collapse.    In the past week, aggregated exchanges saw net outflows of 19.8K and 234.0K for BTC and ETH respectively. BTC balance held on OTC desks dipped as well, following a sharp spike upwards during the week of the stablecoin drama. However, the uptrend from the lows established in March 2022 remains intact. Derivatives Pulse Options implied volatilities (vol) for BTC have quietened down considerably after going parabolic 2 weeks ago. 1-week implied vol currently stands at 73.9%, compared to 83.0% a week ago. ETH implied vols have come down significantly as well, with 1-week implied vol currently at 82.0% compared to 96.5% last week. The options put-call ratio for BTC continues to climb, while ETH’s has dropped from its YTD peak in April. BTC’s put-call ratio has only started playing catch up in the last 2 weeks, signaling increased exposure hedging – however, since most people buy protection late, this is occurring when BTC has already fallen 36.2% YTD and 55.2% from its peak in November 2021. Premiums typically are high when insurance is needed most – buying BTC and ETH put protection is indeed currently expensive, as seen in the elevated options skew. BTC and ETH perpetual futures funding rates are mostly positive overall, despite a few flashes of red during the past week, potentially signalling tilt towards long positioning. Technically Speaking A bearish cross has appeared for ETH, with the 50-day moving average crossing the 100-day moving average on the downside. The other occurrence this year was back in January, after which ETH declined 40.5% before consolidating into a base. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Price Movements         News Highlights USDT issuer Tether published a reserves report in a bid to boost transparency across backed assets. In the report, Tether reduced exposure to riskier assets and increased holdings in safe haven assets. This follows in the footsteps of stablecoin USDC issuer Circle’s reserves statement. Financial messaging network, Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), is conducting tests for interoperable CBDCs across multiple domestic CBDC networks. The company previously conducted its first set of cross-border transactions in 2021. China has re-surfaced as the world’s second largest Bitcoin miner, despite the government’s ban in June 2021, according to a report from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Catalyst Calendar             Disclaimer: The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing on this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Tags CRYPTO CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES MARKET MARKET INSIGHTS MARKET PULSE Source: crypto.com Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Last week saw some strange market action. Financial headlines were dominated by the relentless sell-off in world equity markets that left the S&P 500 index flirting with the semi-official bear market line of 20% below its record high. Among G10 currencies, the Swiss franc notched a rare win as the flight to safety bid combined with a hawkish central bank to send it soaring by over 2% against the US dollar. More surprising was the general weakness in the US dollar, which failed to benefit from its safe-haven role. In fact, the winners of the week were Latin American currencies, which is particularly impressive in the current risk averse environment. As long standing LatAm bulls, we are not complaining, however.  Learn more on Ebury This week the focus will be on any spillovers from the volatility in stock markets to the FX market, on one hand, and the PMIs of business activity on the other. The Eurozone and UK indices are all expected to print well above 55.nWe think that these levels belie the fears of recession that appear to be gripping asset markets. It is difficult to reconcile still massively negative real rates, huge government deficits and economies at full employment with any sustained economic pullback. Figure 1: G10 FX Performance Tracker [base: USD] (1 week) Source: Refinitiv Datastream Date: 23/05/2022 British Pound (GBP) Data out of the UK continued to suggest a dichotomy between sentiment and reality. Consumer sentiment was dismal, but jobs data came out very strong, as did retail sales. Inflation in April was sky high, as expected. Sterling bounced back in line with the general dollar selloff and managed some gains against the euro as well. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM We think there is little to suggest a recession is likely, and this week’s PMI data should be further evidence. It seems that the Bank of England’s apparent willingness to tolerate inflation due to the risks to growth is misplaced. In the short-term, Bank of England dovishness may weigh on the pound, but after the recent sell-off we think that the currency is quite cheap and offers a solid opportunity over the longer term. Figure 2: UK Inflation Rate (2017 – 2022) Source: Refinitiv Datastream Date: 23/05/2022

Bank Indonesia opted to hold out on rate hikes for now, keeping rates untouched to bolster the economic recovery Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo has hinted that he will consider tightening policy if inflation becomes a problem 3.5% BI policy rate   As expected Central bank remains unfazed by simmering inflation pressures Bank Indonesia (BI) kept policy rates unchanged at 3.5%, matching the market consensus. BI Governor Perry Warjiyo cited concerns about the pace of global growth suggesting that Indonesia’s ongoing economic recovery would need support from monetary authorities. BI retained both growth and current account projections from the previous meeting but recognised the threat of rising price pressures.  Warjiyo indicated that inflation would remain under control although he admitted that inflation expectations warranted monitoring. BI may have felt less pressure to hike policy rates today after fiscal authorities rolled out a subsidy package to help contain the recent increase in food and energy prices.  Inflation remains on the uptrend but BI appears confident that fiscal measures can contain price pressures Source: Badan Pusat Statistik Bank Indonesia enacts dovish pause We had expected BI to keep policy rates unchanged at today’s meeting, however we believed that Governor Warjiyo would at least set the table for a June rate hike. Warjiyo did the exact opposite by pledging sustained support for the economic recovery and citing Indonesian rupiah (IDR) stability.  It appears the central bank remains confident that inflation can be contained by subsidies rolled out by fiscal authorities and that IDR would remain supported by a healthy trade surplus in the near term. As such, it appears BI is in no hurry to hike policy rates in the near term unless we see a substantial pickup in core inflation in the coming months and or heightened weakness from IDR. With BI enacting a dovish pause, expect IDR to come under some pressure as BI opts not to join the rate hike camp for now.      Read this article on THINK TagsInflation IDR Bank Indonesia Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Asian equities ease once again on China worries It was another rollercoaster session on Wall Street, with equities rallying powerfully as JP Morgan raised its income outlook and was upbeat on the US economy. The S&P 500 jumped by 1.86%, the Nasdaq rallied by 1.59%, while the Dow Jones leapt 2.0% higher. Snap’s downbeat forecast for this quarter saw its stock slump in aftermarket trading, dragging Meta with it. In what has become typical whip-saw price action these days, US index futures have slumped with investors having zero appetite for positioning moving against them. Nasdaq futures have slumped by 1.45%, S&P 500 futures are 0.85% lower, and Dow futures have fallen by 0.50%.   Asia has shown a reluctance to blindly follow New York of late, with China concerns being a more existential threat. The fall of US futures has been followed by JP Morgan and UBS sharply downgrading China growth, while Covid-19 cases remain stubbornly high by local standards in Beijing, prompting lockdown fears. That has seen Asian markets fall into the red today for the most part.   In Mainland China, the overnight stimulus measures were forgotten as the Shanghai Composite falls by 1.10%, with the CSI 300 losing 1.15%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng is 1.35% lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has eased by 0.65%, with South Korea’s Kospi losing 1.10%, and Taipei falling by 0.70%.   Singapore is just 0.15% higher, while Jakarta has jumped by 1.10% as markets price in no change in interest rates from BI later today. Kuala Lumpur is down 0.10%, while Bangkok has eased by 0.30% and Manila has retreated 1.0% lower. Australian markets are unchanged today.   European equities will likely open a bit softer this afternoon, in line with the price action in Asia. Their fate will be dictated on the day how firm, or not, the pan-Europe PMI data is. As for New York, that really depends on how much coffee the gnomes of Wall Street decide to consume before work, it’s that sort of market. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jonny Hart speaks to APAC Senior Market Analyst Jeffrey Halley about news impacting the market and the week ahead. European PMIs are the week’s highlight tomorrow Welcome to a new week with policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Korea, and Bank Indonesia. We start today’s podcast with a quick overview of Asian markets. A quiet news weekend has left Asian markets focusing once again on China and the covid zero slowdowns. We look at price action around Asia and discuss the future of China and covid zero. Next, it’s over to equity and currency markets. We discuss whether the worst is over for equities and if the US Dollar rally has run its course. We then look ahead to the data calendar which is fairly quiet this week. European PMIs are the week’s highlight tomorrow. We discuss them and their potential impact on the single currency. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Learn more on Oanda

A paradox seems to be emerging in the oil market. Typically, high prices caused companies to increase investment so they could produce more, boosting their profits and meeting demand. Currently, this may not be the case. Investors were also concerned that high oil prices could reduce fuel consumption around the world Oil prices are still above the $100 per barrel mark, but oil production companies are not expected to invest in exploring new fields or starting new drills. Representatives of the world's largest company, Saudi Aramco, are even announcing that the world may face a serious supply crisis in the oil market. Energy companies may be afraid to invest in this sector in the face of pressure related to politicians' attitude toward energy transformation and renewable energy sources - Reuters reports. Thus, energy companies may keep their current profits to themselves instead of investing until regulations and laws lead to a reduction in their market share. This, in a way, may explain why OPEC may care about high oil prices and why the cartel is not increasing production to the levels it declared earlier. Additionally, investors were also concerned that high oil prices could reduce fuel consumption around the world. Moreover, at the annual economic summit in Davos, political and business representatives highlighted the risk of a global recession in the face of multiple threats. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said she does not expect a recession in major economies, but cannot rule it out. Meanwhile, lingering concerns about tight global supply and hopes for a return of demand in China provided some support for oil prices as Shanghai prepares to reopen and lift restrictions. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM In contrast, rising oil prices and slowing economic growth will significantly constrain demand growth for the remainder of 2022 and into 2023, according to a May IEA report. In addition, prolonged restrictions in China, where the government is battling the spread of the Covid-19 virus, are causing a significant slowdown in the world's second-largest oil consumer. For the full year, global oil demand is forecast to average 99.4 mb/d in 2022, up 1.8 mb/d year-on-year. If refiners cannot keep up with the pace of demand growth, consumers could come under additional pressure With the easing of restrictions in China, increased summer car traffic and further increases in jet fuel prices, global oil demand will rise by 3.6 mb/d from its April-August low. If refiners cannot keep up with the pace of demand growth, consumers could come under additional pressure. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Weekly Recap The main story this week was the reversal lower in the US Dollar. The Dollar Index closed out its first losing week since the final week of March as recession fears took hold. The reversal was seemingly fuelled by comments from Fed chairman Powell midweek suggesting a more aggressive course of action from the Fed. Powell warned that the central bank is prepared to raise rates above the neutral level, if necessary, to bring inflation down and will not stop until inflation is back at target. With inflation still at elevated levels and with interest rates higher and expected to rise materially in coming months, traders are concerned over the impact on growth. These fears were well reflected this week in the sharp reversal lower in USD. UK inflation was seen hitting 40-year highs last month at 9%, putting BOE rate hike expectations back into focus. The SNB was seen making a U-turn on monetary policy with SNB chairman Jordan warning that the SNB is ready to act on inflation, which is travelling well above the SNB’s target. The release of the ECB meeting minutes this week highlighted the hawkish shift taking place among members, with the market now increasingly pricing in a July rate hike. It was a volatile week for equities with the FTSE ending the week roughly flat (as of writing) after plenty of two-way action. The ASX200, the DAX and the Nikkei ended the week higher while the S&P and the Nasdaq were firmly in the red as Fed rate-hike expectations overtook USD weakness. It was a better week for precious metals with both gold and silver rallying on USD weakness. Oil prices were unable to capitalise on USD weakness, however, as focus remains on the ongoing EU negotiations regarding potential sanctions on Russian oil. While many EU leaders are pushing for an EU-wide ban on Russian oil by year end, the chances of achieving this look unlikely given fierce opposition from Hungary and Greece among others. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Coming Up Next Week US, Eurozone, UK PMIs Traders will get the latest insight into the performance of the factory and non-factory sectors in the US, eurozone and UK. With inflation surging in all three economies and with supply-chain issues remaining a real problem there is a very real threat that these readings highlight weakness. Given the recessionary concerns which have taken centre stage recently, if these readings underperform asset markets are likely to come under pressure over the week. RBNZ Rate decision The RBNZ meeting this week is expected to see the bank hike rates by a further .5%. 20 out of 21 economists polled by Reuters are calling for such a move. Given these hawkish expectations, if the bank hikes by less than .5% NZD will likely come under heavy selling pressure. If a .5% hike is announced, the focus will then be on forward guidance with NZD likely to rally if the RBNZ points to further hikes incoming. FOMC Meeting Minutes The May FOMC minutes this week are expected to highlight the uptick in Fed hawkishness recently. There’s potentially some reduced impact in the wake of recent comments from Fed’s Powell suggesting that the Fed has turned more aggressively hawkish since that meeting. Nonetheless, the details are likely to be firmly hawkish and market volatility can be expected in response to them. Forex Heat Map Coming up This Week Technical Analysis Our favourite chart this week is GBPCHF GBPCHF has been moving lower in a well-defined channel over the correction from 2021 highs. Recently price has been underpinned by support along the 1.2114 level. This has been a major support area since late last year. If price can breach below this level on a weekly closing basis, this would suggest a continuation of the downtrend towards the next big support at the 1.1687 level. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Economic Calendar – High Impact Another busy data week coming up, key highlights include: US, eurozone and UK PMI readings on Tuesday, US GDP on Thursday and US trade data on Friday. See the calendar below for full schedule.

Todays’ Market Summary The Dollar weakening has halted Futures on three main US stock indexes are down Brent is edging lower currently as an agreement on Russian oil imports ban still escapes European Union though German economy minister says he expects EU embargo on Russian oil 'within days'. Gold prices are edging up currently Top daily news Equities are pointing down currently as US Treasury yields inch down while markets rebounded on Monday. Amazon slipped 0.03% amid reports it is planning to sublease some of its warehouse space because the pandemic-fueled surge in online shopping has slowed, Microsoft shares rose 3.2% outperforming market on Monday. Forex news Currency Pair Change EUR USD -0.32% GBP USD -0.04% USD JPY +0.37% AUD USD -0.36% The Dollar weakening has halted currently. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, lost 0.5% on Monday. EUR/USD joined GBP/USD’s continuing climbing Monday while the Ifo institute reported German business sentiment continued to improve in May. Both pairs are down currently. AUD/USD resumed its advancing yesterday while USD/JPY continued its climbing with the yen higher against the Greenback currently and Australian dollar retreating. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Stock Market news Indices Change Dow Jones Index -0.59% Nikkei Index -1.14% Hang Seng Index -1.62% Australian Stock Index -0.58% Futures on three main US stock indexes are down currently ahead of U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers survey report at 15:45 CET with the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes inching down to 2.841%. US stock market reversed the selloff yesterday as President Biden said that he was considering easing tariffs on China. The three main US stock index benchmarks booked daily gains in the range of 1.6% to 2.0% Monday led by mega-cap growth shares. European stock indexes are down currently after closing up Monday led by banking and mining shares while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde surprised markets by stating about possible rate hike as early as July. Asian indexes are falling today with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index leading losses while Markit reported Japan's manufacturing activity grew at the slowest pace in three months in May. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Commodity Market news Commodities Change Brent Crude Oil -0.52% WTI Crude -1.31% Brent is edging lower currently as an agreement on Russian oil imports ban still escapes European Union though German economy minister says he expects EU embargo on Russian oil 'within days'. Prices advanced marginally yesterday. US West Texas Intermediate WTI added 0.01% but is lower currently. Brent gained 0.7% to $113.42 a barrel on Monday. Gold Market News Metals Change Gold +0.15% Gold prices are edging up currently. Spot gold yesterday closed up 0.39% at $1852.74 an ounce on Monday.

The New Zealand dollar has reversed directions after a solid 3-day rally. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6432, down 0.55% on the day. China jitters weigh on NZ dollar New Zealand’s number one trading partner is China, and it’s no exaggeration to say that when China sneezes, New Zealand catches a cold. China has tenaciously implemented a zero-tolerance policy for Covid, which has meant lockdowns that have confined millions of residents. Unsurprisingly, this has dampened growth in the world’s number two economy. The Covid restrictions were in full force in April, and UBS has projected that China’s economy plunged by 8.0% in Q2 and has downgraded China’s 2022 GDP to 3.0%, down sharply from 4.2%. Investors should not assume that China’s economy will re-energize once the Covid restrictions are eased – UBS is warning that China does not have a clear exit strategy from its current stringent Covid policy, which will hamper a recovery. The downgrade in China’s GDP (JP Morgan also lowered its forecast from 4.3% to 3.7%) has soured sentiment towards the New Zealand dollar. Over in New Zealand, retail sales for Q1 came to a screeching halt. The headline figure declined by 0.5%, down from 8.3% in Q4 2020, while core retail sales came in at zero, down from 6.8%. The weak numbers have contributed to today’s New Zealand dollar’s descent. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be in the spotlight on Wednesday when it holds a policy meeting. The central bank is expected to raise rates by 50-bps for a second straight month. This would bring the cash rate to 2.0%, which is considered a “neutral” stance. It’s noteworthy that the cash rate hasn’t been at the neutral level since 2015, so the RBNZ is moving into rarified air. The RBNZ will likely continue its rate-tightening cycle to 3.0% in order to curb spiralling inflation, and at tomorrow’s meeting, the Bank will likely state that more hikes are on the way. . NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD has support at 0.6352 and 0.6287 There is resistance at 0.6475 and 0.6540 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Oil rally stalls Oil prices are relatively flat on Tuesday as global economic fears and the prospect of tighter restrictions in Beijing take some of the heat out of the rally. Brent and WTI are trading right at the upper end of the range they’ve been within the last couple of months, with tight supplies, easing restrictions in Shanghai and a potential EU ban on Russian oil imports driving the price higher. As has been the case for months now, there are so many countering forces in the market that it can be hard to keep up. Not to mention sentiment in the broader markets drastically changing from one day to the next. It’s quite a challenging market right now but one thing is clear, it’s still extremely tight and those pressures will keep prices elevated. Just not quite as much as it would if not for the recession warnings and Chinese Covid cases. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Gold edges higher Gold is aiming for a fifth consecutive winning day on Tuesday as a softer dollar and slightly lower US yields have allowed for a recovery in the yellow metal. It is trading back above USD 1,850, with USD 1,875 and USD 1,900 being the next big tests. If USD 1,850 fails to hold as support, the next test below falls around USD 1,835, with USD 1,800 then being the key support below that. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Eurozone: PMI drops slightly as inflation pressures remain The composite PMI fell from 55.8 to 54.9 in May, still signalling decent expansion. With inflation pressures remaining close to all-time highs, this keeps hawkish pressure on the ECB to act quickly despite growth concerns Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank   Squeezed purchasing power, weak consumer confidence, and tightening financial conditions are just a few of the headwinds the eurozone is facing at the moment. Nevertheless, the PMI doesn’t indicate that this is translating into a contracting economy so far, but we do see the first signs of weakness coming through. This is mainly because of the service sector still profiting from fading pandemic restrictions. The May data showed some weakening as the service sector PMI fell from 57.7 to 56.3. While still signalling strong expansion, it is a sign that the reopening boom has started to fade. The manufacturing PMI signalled stalling growth in April, but the indicator improved modestly in May from 50.7 to 51.2. Bugged by input shortages related to the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China, the sector is having problems with production. At the same time, new orders also decreased for the first time since mid-2020, showing early demand concerns. Inflationary pressures are barely abating though. Input costs have slightly dropped from record highs, and selling price expectations remain close to April’s record high. Some early signs of improvement are unlikely to translate quickly into a fading inflation rate. Moreover, hiring intentions remain strong for now, which will add to labour shortages and subsequently to wage pressures. For the ECB, this is a hawkish signal. The growth outlook is clearly worsening, but the current impact of high inflation and the war is not yet contractionary according to the survey. We have seen ECB doves pushing back at a 50 basis point hike in July, but this PMI release will likely continue the conversation about whether President Christine Lagarde’s promise of no more negative rates by the end of 3Q will already be accomplished at the July meeting, or whether it will be 25bp in July and again in September. The next stop in terms of the ECB's data-driven lift-off is May inflation data, due out next week. Read this article on THINK TagsInflation GDP Eurozone Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Hawkish ECB boost the single currency The ECB will become the latest central bank to concede on the inflation argument and raise rates in July and September The euro has caught a strong bid against the pound in recent days on the back of some very hawkish commentary from the ECB and poor economic data in the UK. The ECB will become the latest central bank to concede on the inflation argument and raise rates in July and September, as per President Christine Lagarde’s blog, although some support an even more aggressive approach. That’s boosted the euro at a time when the UK economy is facing the prospect of a recession, with PMI data today highlighting the struggles already appearing in the all-important services sector. EURGBP has rallied strongly on the back of this, holding above the 200/233-day SMA band in the process and pushing a breakout of the recent highs. It also broke above the 55/89-period SMA band on the 4-hour chart in the process which has capped its rallies over the last week. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM The next test for the pair is 0.86 and 0.8650 which has been a key area of resistance on numerous occasions over the last year, with 0.87 potentially offering further resistance above. Eventually, the euro area and others will likely be dragged into the recession conversation which may see the bullish case wane but for now, it’s interest rates that are dominating the conversation and giving the euro a major lift. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading on correction towards $1,860 in the Asian session after reaching the high of $1868 yesterday as investors anticipate the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and US Durable Goods data later today. The yellow metal jumped strongly for the past week after reaching the low of around $1,786 printed on May 16. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News The strength in gold prices is due to the DXY's steep fall below 102.00 after making a record 19-year high of 105.00 on May 13. Following this, further gains in gold cannot be ruled out. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Source: Online Trading Platform | Currencies, Commodities, Stocks, Cryptos | ICM.com

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views Energy The oil market has traded firmer during the morning session in Asia. API numbers overnight were once again supportive for the market. Crude oil inventories are reported to have increased by 567Mbbls over the last week. However, there were continued product draws, with gasoline and distillate stocks falling by 4.22MMbbls and 949Mbbls respectively. The tightening in the US gasoline market will raise concerns over supply as we move into driving season. Tightness in the US is pulling in gasoline from elsewhere, including Europe, which is also looking increasingly tight. The US energy secretary has also not ruled out restricting petroleum exports, given rising prices. Up until now the US administration has been reluctant to go down this route and instead has focused on releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.  Whilst these releases may offer some relief to crude oil prices, they may do little to ease gasoline shortages if the bottleneck is on the refining side. It’s looking unlikely that differences over an EU ban on Russian oil imports will be resolved at next week’s meeting of EU leaders. The Hungarian Prime Minister has reportedly said that meetings on 30 and 31 May would not be an appropriate place to discuss the ban, whilst the European Commission President has also made similar comments. Therefore, the uncertainty over a Russian oil ban looks as though it will hang over markets for quite a bit longer. We continue to believe that the EU will eventually agree on a ban and, assuming it is not too different to the current proposal, we would expect  the move to be supportive for prices, particularly over 2H22. Austrian Gas Grid Management (AGGM) announced the results of its recent purchase tender for natural gas for strategic reserves. The tender attracted 189 bids, which ended up seeing AGGM buying 7.7TWh of storage at an average price of EUR124.50/MWh including storage costs through until April 2023. This price is well above the current prompt price in Europe of around EUR85/MWh.  Austrian gas storage levels are well below average at the moment - inventories are 29% full compared to a 5-year average of almost 45% at this stage of the year. EU allowances saw somewhat of a recovery yesterday, following the weakness seen over the past week due to EU plans to sell EUR20b worth of allowances from the Market Stability Reserve. The Dec-22 contract rallied by 4% yesterday to settle at EUR81.32/t, although it is still some distance from the more than EUR92/t we saw it trading at early last week. The catalyst for yesterday’s move appears to be comments from an EU official who was more supportive about the role that financial institutions play in the EU carbon market. This comes after the EU Parliament’s Environment Committee supported a proposal to restrict speculative activity in the EU carbon market. Agriculture There appears to be a growing trend of protectionist measures taken by governments around the world, given concerns over food security and inflationary pressures. After India recently surprised the market with a ban on wheat exports, the Indian government has now announced that it will limit sugar exports to 10mt in the current 2021/22 season, which ends in September. India is set to be the third-largest sugar exporter this season, behind Brazil and Thailand. The announcement is somewhat surprising, given that India has had a very strong sugarcane crop this season. However, as reflected in the price action, the market is not too concerned at the moment about this export limit, given that most in the market have been expecting Indian sugar exports this season to total around 9mt, so below the export limit. The bigger concern is that we see other countries taking similar action when it comes to agricultural commodity exports. Apart from the action taken by India, Malaysia is also set to ban chicken exports, whilst Indonesia has gone back and forth on a palm oil export ban. Read this article on THINK TagsSugar Russian oil ban Oil Natural gas EU carbon Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Key Takeaways Ethereum’s (ETH) Ropsten testnet will attempt to simulate the Merge by combining proof of work with a proof of stake consensus layer. Meanwhile, $8.1B in ETH has been burned since the implementation of EIP 1559 in Aug 2021. Cardano (ADA) plans to improve scalability by reducing the transaction size of smart contracts in the upcoming Vasil hard fork. The Filecoin Foundation and Lockheed Martin (an American aerospace corporation) announced plans to host blockchain nodes in space. Cronos (CRO) reached 42.39M total transactions, an increase of +3.44% from last week. Highlights Cloudflare to run Ethereum node experiment to help ‘build a better internet’ Litecoin activates MimbleWimble Extension Blocks (MWEB) Computer scientists unveil rapid energy-efficient Bitcoin mining algorithms Hyperledger Foundation deploy new versions of three blockchain tools to enhance ecosystem Uniswap confirms launch on Gnosis and Moonbeam ZCash (ZEC) could soon transition to proof of stake as a means of driving sustainable growth Terra (LUNA) network dropped by Coinbase Cloud service Terra LUNA fork voting in chaos amid massive inflation Do Kwon says Terra collecting snapshot data for LUNA airdrop           Tags CRYPTO CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES LAYER 1 LAYER 2

Summary:  A technical rally occurred overnight, seeing the S&P500 gain after 7 days of declines, while Agriculture and Energy stocks shone the most, gaining even more momentum proving they are an inflation hedge. In quality tech, Apple shares rose 4% with long-term investors dripping in buy orders. Meanwhile, in big banks JPMorgan gained 6% upon forecasting net interest income to rise, which supported gains in Bank of America, Citigroup. We don’t think the market is at breaking point yet. However see Commodity gains intensifying and offering further upside, as the world worries global wheat supplies could run out in 10 weeks, while demand for lithium batteries rises seeing lithium companies upgrade their earnings and rally. What’s happening in markets that you need to know Big picture themes? Of the Equity Baskets we track across different sectors, we can see select risk appetite is starting to come back in to the market; China’s little giants are up the most month-to-date, supported by China’s fresh interest rate cut. Meanwhile, Cybersecurity stocks were up overnight (but are still down 24% YTD). Year-to-date though, our high conviction asset class, Commodities continues to see the most growth, followed by Defence. In the S&P500 oversold Ag and Bank stocks shine; Agri and Farm Tech stocks were up the most overnight, followed by Diversified Banks. In terms of standout stocks; Ross Stores and Deere (DE) rose the most (9%, 7%), after being two of the most oversold stocks last week. In S&P500 Deer was THE most oversold member. Deer makes 65% of its revenue from Agricultural equipment and selling turf. Earnings are expected to grind higher in 2022 and Deer pays a small dividend yield (1.25%). Asia Pacific’s stocks are trading mixed following more Tech disappointment in the US. While risk sentiment was upbeat overnight on Wall Street, Asia Pac’s markets turned most lower following Snap’s warning that it is unlikely to meet revenue and profit forecasts. Tech sentiment eroded again and further consumer staples earnings results this week are keeping investors cautious. Australia’s ASX200 trades flat, weight by tech falling,  with Block (SQ) down 6% after Bitcoin trades under $30k (Block makes most of its money from BTC transactions). Meanwhile, ASX lithium stocks continue to surge, supported by the new Australian government’s EV stimulus, seeing Liontown (LTR), Allkem (AKE), MinRes (MIN), Pilbara (PLS) dominate the leaderboard and rise 3-4%. Japan’s Nikkei (NI225.I) is down 0.3% led by Recruit (6098) which operates the popular HR engine “Indeed” and company information website “Glassdoor”. Singapore’s STI index (ES3) was however up 0.2% despite a record high inflation and a potential chicken-price shock. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Chinese and Hong Kong equites see lackluster trading despite incremental stimulus measures from the State Council and Biden’s remarks on reviewing tariffs on goods from China.   The attempt to rally in the opening hour in response to positive news of 33 stimulus measures from China’s State Council failed.  Overnight news that Biden will discuss with Treasury Secretary Yellen about reviewing tariffs on goods from China as part of the Biden administration’s effort to ease U.S. inflationary pressures did not incur much excitement. Hang Seng Index (HSI.I) fell 0.8% and CSI300(000300.I) was 0.3% lower. Among the 33 measures was a reduction of RMB60 billion in the purchase tax on passenger cars Great Wall.  Great Wall Motor (02333), Geely (00175) and Guangzhou Automobile (02238) rose 3% to 10% while shares of EV makers fell 3%-9%.  Although reporting a larger than expected 159% YoY increase in revenues and a 30bp improvement of gross margins to 10.4% in Q1, XPeng’s (09868) share fell almost 9% on cautious Q2 guidance.  What to consider? Fed speakers remaining flexible. Fed’s Bostic backed a series of 50bps rate hike moves overnight but hinted at a pause in September if inflation comes down but also opened doors to more aggressive moves if inflation doesn’t cool. Fed’s George said she expects the central bank to raise interest rates to 2% by August (which also means about 100-125bps of rate hikes from the current 0.75-1% rates or 2-3 50bps rate hikes). While the base effects may make headline inflation appear to be softening into the summer, real price pressures aren’t going anywhere and Fed’s hiking pace is likely to continue to prove to be slow. AUD and NZD unable to sustain gains. A fresh slide was seen in NZD this morning following the unexpected decline in retail spending reported today. RBNZ decision is due tomorrow  (in early Asian hours) and it is still a close call between 25 and 50bps rate hike. But it’s more important to note that RBNZ is way ahead of other central banks and getting close to neutral faster than others, which means room for further upside in NZD is limited. AUDUSD is also back below 0.7100 and remains prone to a reversal in risk sentiment more than any domestic developments. While the AUDUSD rose to a 3-week high yesterday, supported by the Australian Labor Government being sworn in after winning the election and bringing in an EV policy ($2k tax incentives), vowing to keep Defense Spending at over 2% of GPD and pledging to offer more childcare support to keep employment high. The USD will likely remain favored for now as risk aversion returns and cut the rally of the AUD.  ECB getting ready to move to exit negative rates. ECB President Lagarde’s comment that the central bank is likely to exit negative rates by the end of the third quarter put a massive bid into the EUR overnight but the pair turned lower from 1.0700 with focus on Fed Chair Powell and PMIs due today. With Fed comments getting repetitive, there is room for ECB’s hawkishness to support the EUR even as Lagarde continues to downplay the possibility of a 50bps rate hike. Germany’s economy shows signs of unexpectedly strengthening in May. Germany’s IFO reading was out at 93.0 versus prior 91.9 in April. The increase is mostly explained by an improved current assessment. The expectations component is almost unchanged and close to levels last seen at the start of the pandemic. Several factors are pushing respondents to be careful regarding the future: supply chain frictions, the Shanghai lockdown, persistent inflationary pressures and lower real disposable incomes of households etc. The German economy will not plunge as it did at the start of the pandemic, of course. But we think that risks of a stagflation are clearly titled on the upside. We will watch closely the first estimate of the May PMIs this morning to have a better assessment of the economic situation in Germany and in the rest of the eurozone.  Potential trading ideas to consider? Singapore’s inflation pain is rising. Core CPI was at a decade high in April at 3.3%, and this is still not a peak. Singapore’s national lunch meal chicken rice is set to get expensive as Malaysia is halting exports of chicken. About 34% of Singapore's chicken imports come from Malaysia. While alternate sources of fresh chicken and options such as frozen chicken may be possible, this is not the last inflation shock to hit the island economy. Vegetable prices are also on the rise due to shortages of supply and the high fertilizer prices. In times like this, we would reiterate the possible inflation hedges remain gold, REITs and commodities. In summary, it is important to look for value investments or stocks that have a solid cash flow generation ability and pricing power but still priced below their fair value. The plot for investing in Lithium thickens.Lithium remains one of our preferred metal exposures for 2022 for upside. Albemarle Corp, the world’s largest lithium producer upgraded its outlook for the second time this month expecting higher lithium prices and demand to further boost their sales. We’ve seen many EV companies sell out of some of their electric vehicles, and this highlights the lack of supply in battery metals, which is also pushing up the lithium price. Albemarle Corp, expects sales to now be as high as $6.2 billion this year, up from its previous estimate of up to $5.6 billion. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM If have a long time horizon for investing, you could consider dripping money into the market (this is called dollar cost averaging). Remember Shelby Davis said you can make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time. But the key is to look at quality names that are in a position to return cash to shareholders. So if you want to be in tech for example, you could look at names like Apple, Microsoft and Google, who lead the S&P500 and Nasdaq indices and are growing their earnings and this is likely to continue over the next several years and longer term. The idea is that names like these, will likely lead a secular bull market, once the Market eventually begins to recover. And you ideally want to be in names with growing earnings, rather than throwing darts at some of those names with patchy results that are akin to Ark innovation ETF for example. China’s State Council announced 33 stimulus measures.  An additional VAT credit refund of RMB140 billion brings the overall target of tax refunds, tax cuts and fee reductions to RMB2.64 trillion in 2022.  China is also introducing a reduction of RMB60 billion (equivalent to about 17% of auto purchase tax last year) in tax on passenger car purchases.  The Government is increasing its supports to the aviation industry and railway construction via special bond issuance and loans and is rolling out a series of energy projects.  It is doubling the lending quota for banks to lend to SMEs and allow certain borrowers to postpone repayments.  The State Council also reiterates its support to promote legal and compliant listings of platform companies in domestic as well as overseas markets. Key company earnings to watch this week: Tuesday: Kuaishou Technology, Intuit, NetEase, AutoZone, Agilent Technologies Wednesday: Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, SSE, Acciona Energias Renovables, Nvidia, Snowflake, Splunk Thursday: Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Lenovo, Alibaba, Costco, Medtronic, Marvell Technology, Baidu, Autodesk, Workday, VMware, Dell Technologies, Dollar Tree, Zscaler, Farfetch Friday: Singapore Telecommunications   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.  Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News Source: Saxo Bank

White House unnerves oil markets Oil prices continued to range trade overnight, finishing almost unchanged in New York. Asia, though, has seen both Brent crude and WTI rise. A couple of items seem to be behind the move. A sharp 4.20 million drop in gasoline inventories late in New York from the API Inventory data is likely supportive, with gasoline prices becoming a major issue in the US. Following on from that, White House officials explicitly refusing to say possible crude export restrictions were off the table appears to have spooked Asian suppliers. The last thing the world needs right now is US crude oil export restrictions with global supplies already tight. That saw both Brent crude and WTI spike 1.0% higher in early Asian trade, although those gains have eased as the session has gone on. Brent crude is 0.90% higher at USD 114.70 a barrel, and WTI is 0.65% higher at USD 110.90 a barrel. The White House likely needs to “clarify” its stance, least it creates unintended consequences by pushing crude prices higher. Brent crude, notably, is testing multi-week resistance today. Brent crude is testing resistance at USD 114.70 today, which is followed by USD 116.00, with support at USD 112.00. Failure of USD 116.00 could set up a retest test of my medium-term resistance at 120.00. ​ WTI is taking comfort from the White House stance and is sitting in a USD 108.00 to USD 112.00 a barrel range. Nevertheless, a topside breakout by Brent crude will almost certainly drag WTI higher as well, precisely what President Biden doesn’t want. Gold rises once again Gold had another decent overnight session, buoyed by lower US yields and a still-weakening US Dollar. Gold finished 0.69% higher at USD 1866.50 an ounce. In Asia, some US dollar strength has seen it weaken slightly by 0.40% to USD 1859.00 an ounce. Overall, although I acknowledge gold’s upward momentum, I remain sceptical of its longevity until it manages to hold on to material gains in the face of US dollar strength. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM The technical picture continues to remain supportive, and it seems only a marked US dollar recovery will cap gold’s rally. Gold took out resistance at the double top at USD 1865.00 an ounce which becomes intraday support, followed by USD 1845.00 and USD 1840.00 an ounce. It should now target USD 1886.00, its 100-day moving average. That would open up a test of USD 1900.00, although I suspect there will be plenty of option-related selling ahead of that level. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

TL;DR NFT virtual land is an ownable area of digital land on a metaverse platform. Popular NFT land projects include Decentraland, The Sandbox, and Axie Infinity. NFTs are suited to representing land ownership as each one is unique and easily proves digital ownership. You can use NFT land for advertising, socializing, gaming, and work, among other use cases. The landowner can normally use their plot to host online experiences, display content, or gain benefits in a game. Large brands and celebrities, including Adidas and Snoop Dogg, are also beginning to invest in and use NFT land. The value of a plot is affected by its utility, project, and market speculation. You can purchase NFT land from a project in a land sale or on the secondary market via an NFT exchange, such as the Binance NFT Marketplace or OpenSea. Before purchasing, make sure you understand the risks and use cases of the land and its associated project. In some cases, it might be better to rent instead of buying an NFT land. Introduction The metaverse's development has rapidly created interesting new blockchain use cases. As 2020 was such a massive year for the metaverse and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), it's no wonder that virtual land has become a hot topic. Some NFT sales of land have reached prices greater than properties in the physical world, making the concept difficult to grasp for some. In fact, there are actually a lot of similarities between NFT land and typical real estate. But as a digital asset on the blockchain, NFT land has some unique features to explore. What is the metaverse? The metaverse is an online, virtual world that will combine multiple aspects of our digital and real lives, including work, socializing, and recreation. 2021 saw many tech giants, including Meta (previously Facebook), Microsoft, and Epic Games, begin developing and exploring the space. Blockchain technology plays a crucial role in the metaverse as digital ownership, identity, and economies are central concepts. For a deeper explanation, read our introduction article to the metaverse. What is NFT virtual land? As mentioned, metaverse projects are digital worlds that users can usually explore with 3D avatars. SecondLive, for example, provides areas and venues for concerts, conferences, and expositions. While projects like SecondLive don't let users purchase a permanent virtual reality space, other metaverse worlds do. Developers create large maps of land divided into small parcels to sell on the market. To represent the unique ownership of the area, users purchase NFTs linked to a particular plot of land. You can purchase these plots through a land sale directly from the project or on the secondary market. Exactly what you can do with NFT land depends on each project. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM What are the use cases of metaverse land? Apart from speculation, landowners can use their virtual space in various use cases: 1. Advertising - If your plot is in a popular area or district and attracts many visitors, you can charge for advertising space.  2. Socializing -You can host events on your digital land, including concerts, conferences, and community meetups. 3. Gaming - Your NFT land might have a use in an NFT video game. For example, land in Axie Infinity can provide extra resources, tokens, crafting ingredients. 4. Work - Land that can be explored with a 3D avatar can be used as a virtual office space or to provide digital services. PwC Hong Kong will use The Sandbox land in their Web 3.0 advisory services. Are global companies purchasing metaverse land? Prominent celebrities and brands have already begun to purchase land in the metaverse. For example, Snoop Dogg is creating his own Snoop Dogg Metaverse Experience on The Sandbox. Adidas has also purchased space on the platform for their own AdiVerse metaverse experience. Apart from joining in the metaverse and NFT hype, brands and companies will offer users the chance to interact with them by accessing metaverse services, games, and products.     NFT land has even made the jump from retail investors to institutional investors. For example, The Metaverse Group has made headlines purchasing large amounts of digital real estate, which we'll dive into later. The group is even virtually headquartered in Decentraland's Crypto Valley. The consultancy firm PwC also bought plots in Decentraland in December 2021 as part of their web 3.0 advisory services. What affects the price of NFT virtual land? The price of a plot of virtual land is determined similarly to other non-fungible tokens or cryptocurrencies. There are three main factors to examine: 1. Utility - Virtual land differs from many other NFTs as it usually has a variety of use cases. These will differ depending on the platform they're on. For example, digital worlds like Decentraland allow users to customize and create on their land. If your land is in a popular area or receives many visitors, you could charge for advertising. Your land might also provide you benefits in a blockchain video game. You could have improved staking bonuses or experience unique in-game events like in Axie Infinity. 2. The platform - Popular platforms like Decentraland, The Sandbox, or the upcoming My Neighbour Alice tend to have higher prices for their NFT land. This is due to market supply and demand. The user base and interest of these platforms are much higher than smaller projects. 3. Speculation - Large sales of NFT lands in the past have led to an increasing amount of speculation. For example, the NFT real estate company Metaverse Group spent roughly $2.43 million in November 2021 purchasing a parcel of 116 plots of land in Decentraland. Each plot is 16 meters squared, giving them a total area of 1,856 meters squared of land in the Fashion Street district. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Where to buy land in the metaverse There are two main methods for purchasing Metaverse NFT land. You can take part in a land sale and purchase it directly from the project, or you can buy land from other users through a marketplace. An NFT land sale is a good way of buying your land at a lower price than on the secondary market. Most large metaverse projects with NFT land have seen rising prices, meaning buying land in a sale tends to be better. Some projects sell all their plots in one go, while others sell them in rounds.  An NFT exchange is the safest and most reliable way to purchase land on the secondary market. This way, both the buyer and seller are protected by a smart contract that ensures the trades occur smoothly for both parties. Binance NFT Marketplace and OpeaSea are two of the most popular options to use. Binance NFT Marketplace supports Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain, while OpeanSea supports Ethereum, Polygon, and Klaytn.   Tips before buying your first metaverse land Buying NFT land in the metaverse should be treated like any other investment or financial transaction. Make sure to do your own research and consider the points below: 1. Buy your NFT land from a reputable source. If you purchase the land through a project's sale, make sure you have the correct official link. If you buy land from someone else, never make any transfers directly to their wallet. You should always make the sale through a trusted, reputable marketplace or crypto exchange. Binance NFT Marketplace and OpenSea are two possible choices, as previously mentioned. 2. Decide if you want to buy or rent your NFT land. Depending on your needs, you might not need to purchase a piece of land. For example, you might want to host a single event in a popular district. If the platform you're using supports rentals, then the price you pay depends on the plot's traffic, closeness to other important plots, and its size. 3. Consider the NFT land's project carefully. The project you choose will determine the utility and partly the cost of the NFT. If you want to speculate and resell your land, look at the project's fundamentals, such as popularity, number of users, and team. If you're going to sell advertising space or take part in another use case, research which metaverse platforms are most suited to your needs. Not all NFT projects will succeed, so make sure to consider the financial risk before buying NFT lands. If you buy land that has no use or demand, you might end up holding it forever. Closing thoughts To many, the idea of virtual land sales might seem far-fetched. However, you only need to look at the rise of NFTs, digital collectibles, and the metaverse to understand how NFT land has developed.  The idea isn't much different from owning a website or other virtual space. For example, popular domain names have sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars. However, the way NFT lands guarantee ownership is where we see a difference. With the tech world preparing itself for a metaverse future, we shouldn't be surprised to see even more metaverse NFT land for sale soon.

Recession jitters send US dollar lower The US dollar eased once again overnight, as US recession fears continue to lead to a repricing lower of Fed tightening expectations. With quantitative tightening starting next week and no signs of inflation falling, that may be more hope than reality. Nevertheless, one must respect the momentum in the short term, and the US dollar bull market correction still looks to have legs in it. ​ The dollar index fell by 0.32% to 101.77 overnight, but Asia is doing its usual countertrend moves today, pushing the dollar index back up to 101.95. The multi-year breakout line is at 102.40 today, forming initial resistance, while 101.50 and 101.00 loom as immediate supports. EUR/USD continued edging higher overnight, rising 0.42% to 1.0735 before falling by 0.28% to 1.0705 in Asia. Momentum already appears to be waning for EUR/USD, but I do not rule out at least a test of 1.0750 and 1.0825, the multi-decade breakout line. A weekly close above the latter is needed to suggest a medium-term low is in place. GBP/USD fell overnight, crushed by EUR/GBP buying, poor data and tax and political risk. It finished 0.42% lower at 1.2535 where it remains in Asia today. Sterling faces political risks, outlined above, today, and these will limit gains. It now has support at 1.2470, with a double top now at 1.2600. Even if the US dollar sell-off continues, sterling will remain euro’s poor cousin. AUD/USD remains steady at 0.7100 today, having probed the downside overnight Lower US yields saw USD/JPY fall 0.85% to 126.85 overnight where it remains in Asia, just below support, now resistance, at 127.00. A deeper selloff, potentially targeting the 125.00 support area, remains entirely possible given the market is still clearly very long USD/JPY. Once again, at those levels though, given the trajectory of US and Japan interest rates, being short becomes a dangerous game. AUD/USD remains steady at 0.7100 today, having probed the downside overnight. AUD/NZD buying is capping gains for now. A hawkish RBNZ today has sent the Kiwi dollar flying, NZD/USD jumping 0.65% to 0.6500. The rally is already showing signs of fatigue and a weekly close above 0.6550 is required to signal a potential medium-term low. Support is distant at 0.6420. Asian FX continued gaining against the US dollar overnight, but a stronger greenback in Asian time has erased those gains. A neutral USD/CNY fixing by the PBOC has given Asian markets little to go on today, with USD/CNY, USD/CNH and USD/THB rising by around 0.30%, while USD/KRW has risen by 0.10%. An impending Bank of Korea hike on Friday should limit the won’s weakness. The Malaysian ringgit looks like the most vulnerable regional currency right now, USD/MYR trading near 4.4000 today. With policy tightening gaining momentum among other Asian central banks, today’s benign inflation data reinforced that outlook. USD/MYR could potentially test 4.4500 by early next week. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Euro falls sharply The euro has reversed directions on Wednesday and is sharply lower. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0663, down 0.67% on the day. The euro was up 1.29% on Monday and extended its gains on Tuesday, hitting a 4-week high, after ECB President Lagarde announced that the ECB would raise interest rates in July. On the data front, there weren’t any surprises out of Germany. GDP in Q1 rose by 0.2% QoQ, as expected. Compared to Q4 of 2019, the quarter prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, growth was 0.9% smaller, which means that the economy is yet to fully recover from the Covid crisis. The war in Ukraine and Covid-19 have resulted in supply chain disruptions and accelerating inflation, which has hampered economic growth. German confidence remains in deep-freeze German GfK Consumer Sentiment came in at -26.0 in May, a slight improvement from the April reading of -26.6, which marked a record low. Not surprisingly, consumers put the blame for their deep pessimism on two key factors – the conflict in Ukraine and spiralling inflation. The GfK survey also found that consumer spending has weakened, as high costs for food and energy have reduced spending on non-essential items. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The ECB Financial Stability Review, published twice a year, echoed what German consumers are saying. The report bluntly stated that financial stability conditions have deteriorated in the eurozone, as the post-Covid recovery has been tested by higher inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The report noted that the economic outlook for the eurozone had weakened, with inflation and supply disruptions representing significant headwinds for the eurozone economy. Given this challenging economic landscape, the euro will be hard-pressed to keep pace with the US dollar. EUR/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.0736 and 1.0865 EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0648. The next support line is at 1.0519 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Summary:  Today we look at the normally high-beta bubble sectors continuing to weigh very heavily on the US equity market, even as the S&P 500 managed to pull solidly off the lows yesterday. We continue to highlight the "Bermuda triangle" of Tesla-ArkInvest-Crypto as an ongoing contagion risk. We also look at the market impact of a trio of weak US economic data points, the latest on crude oil and natural gas, FX moves and the status of the US dollar, upcoming earnings including Nvidia and Snowflake, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Saxo Bank   Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News    

RBNZ hikes by 50-bps The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised policy rates by 0.50% to 2.0% this morning, with Governor Orr setting a hawkish tone in the press conference afterwards. In the statement itself, the RBNZ’s “least worst choices” policy seemed to imply that although external risks remained, the domestic economy was strong and could tolerate tighter monetary conditions. Mr Orr seemed to be saying much the same, suggesting that terminal rates could go above 3.0% and would get there sooner, rather than later. We’ll see just how strong the New Zealand economy is in due course, but a hawkish RBNZ has seen the New Zealand dollar rally by 0.70% to 0.6505 today, making it the biggest currency gainer in Asia today. Elsewhere, Singapore’s GDP growth came in tight on expectations, rising by 3.70% YoY for Q1. With inflation data yesterday also less worse than expected, expectations for another unscheduled tightening by the Monetary Authority of Singapore have receded for now. That may bring some relief to the Malaysian ringgit, which has fallen to 3.20 against the Singapore dollar. Snap Has Fallen In Malaysia itself, Inflation data for April continues to remain benign as domestic demand stays subdued. Inflation YoY rose by just 2.30% and will leave Bank Negara, like Bank Indonesia yesterday, in no hurry to tighten monetary policy. Ominously though, the Malaysian ringgit has shown no strength versus the US dollar. USD/MYR remains at recent highs at 4.4000 even as the greenback is experiencing an extended bull market correction versus the G-10 and EMFX elsewhere. If the US dollar turns higher once again, and the MYR resumes its sell-off, Bank Negara’s hand might be forced. Overnight, the recession word weighed on stock markets once again. European PMI data was a mixed bag. Manufacturing PMIs held steady, while Services PMIs fell as consumer demand takes a hit from the rise in the cost of living. That wasn’t enough to stop the euro rally, powered by suddenly hawkish ECB heavyweights. Bank of England, has already signalled a white flag on bringing down inflation The picture was rather grimmer in the United Kingdom where the most honest central bank in the world, the Bank of England, has already signalled a white flag on bringing down inflation and pencilled in a recession next year. UK Manufacturing PMI held steady at 54.6, but Services PMIs plummeted to 51.8. The UK is facing a winter of discontent as the cost of living soars, with the railways RMT union voting to strike over pay negotiations. Expect more of this going forward. Additionally, the Chancellor is apparently preparing to widen the scope of the windfall tax on energy companies, probably to help pay for his cost of living mini-budget. UK stock markets didn’t like that. Finally, the “party gate” report on those lockdown wine frenzies in the No 10 garden is due for release today, potentially putting more pressure on PM Johnson’s leadership. ​ Little surprise that the sterling slumped versus the euro and the US dollar overnight. In the United States, the recession world hit particularly hard after the Snap Inc. induced meltdown by Nasdaq stocks overnight. US New Home Sales plummeted to 591,000 in April, while Richmond Fed Manufacturing slumped to -9 in May. The S&P Global Services Flash PMI for May fell to 53.5, with Flash Manufacturing easing to 57.5. It was the new home sales that really frightened the street, though, as house building, and its ancillary services and suppliers are a good chunk of US domestic GDP. Soaring mortgage interest rates and petrol prices appear to be doing a lot of the Fed’s work for it before it even gets started. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM If there is one takeout from all of this for me, it is that rising inflation and borrowing rates are already crimping the demand side of the equation. Unfortunately, we are seeing very little sign of price pressures reducing due to a combination of factors, all of which have been thrashed to death here and in research everywhere. The uncomfortable reality is that central banks are going to be forced to continue the tightening path, even as growth slows around the world, because inflation has proven sticky and not transitory. That is the least worst choice central banks need to make in a stagflationary environment. I am asked every day if we have seen the low in the equity market sell-off. Hopefully, I have answered the question. US President Joe Biden’s trip around Asia continues Finally, US President Joe Biden’s trip around Asia continues. Unfortunately, with its emphasis on containing China and hawking a trade agreement empty of potential access to the US domestic market (Congress needs to approve that), the trip is not going to make much headway in re-establishing US leadership in the region. Asia really needs to see the colour of America’s money. Furthermore, the reliability of the US as a partner has taken a further hit today, with White House officials explicitly refusing to rule out the possibility that the US could enact crude oil export restrictions to help cap energy prices domestically. The US doesn’t have a crude oil problem, it has a refining and transportation problem, but let’s not let facts get in the way. I have warned about food nationalism previously, but if President Biden prioritises November’s mid-term elections over the economic war with Russia, and supporting Europe, it really is every man for himself globally. I can’t see that being positive for equities anywhere, or European asset markets full stop, or for Ukraine. Only the Kremlin is likely to be popping champagne as the US does Russia’s divide and conquer for them. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

The Canadian dollar is drifting just above the 1.28 line, but that could change in the North American session, with the release of Canada’s retail sales for March. The headline figure is expected to jump to 1.4% MoM, after a negligible gain of 0.1% in April. Core retail sales is projected to come in at 2.0%, little changed from the previous reading of 2.1%. A stronger-than-expected reading would likely boost the Canadian dollar, while an underperforming release would raise questions about the recovery and could push the currency lower. FOMC minutes soothe market nerves The FOMC minutes, released on Wednesday, didn’t contain any surprises, which was just fine as far as the markets were concerned. Investors have become increasingly nervous over the spectre of a recession in the United States. Recent data is pointing to a possible slowdown, at the same time that the Federal Reserve has embarked on an aggressive rate-hike cycle which will slow the economy. With inflation still not showing signs of peaking, there have been calls from some Fed officials to deliver a super-super-size 75 bps hike. To the relief of the nervous markets, the minutes appeared to put to rest that drastic scenario, as the Fed signalled that it will hike by 50 bps in June and July, followed by a pause in September. This would allow the Fed to monitor the effects of the June and July hikes on the economy and whether inflation is finally easing. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM The US dollar showed modest gains after the minutes were released, but we are seeing limited movement across the majors today. The dollar index rose slightly to 102.07, but has retreated to 101.83, as resistance at the multi-year breakout line of 102. 35 held firm. There is support at 101.50 and 101.00. USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.2866 and 1.2955 USD/CAD has support at 1.2750 and 1.2661 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

The yuan has been losing 1.6% in the past two days amid fears of an economic slowdown. This is a solid move compared to how unexpected the bad news was. In our opinion, the appreciation of the last two days should be seen as a continuation of the trend that started at the beginning of April. At that time, the renminbi definitively went against the current and succumbed to the Dollar’s general appreciation, and this weakening accelerated sharply at the end of April. The renminbi recovered some losses from May 12th to 24th, but it was just a recharge for yuan bears. USDCNH - US Dollar To Chinese Yuan The depth of the retreat in the USDCNH coincided with a classic Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of the initial move. China’s slowdown leads to a loosening of monetary policy, and Xi Jinping’s worrying comments set up markets that could see more economic measures in the coming days or weeks. This is especially important for the Chinese leader as 2022 is an election year, and the authorities will therefore try to create as favourable a macroeconomic backdrop as possible. A weaker CNY could give the Chinese economy a helping hand to boost exports. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM   In addition, the fact that monetary policy in China and the US is heading in opposite directions leads to a weaker renminbi. According to the psychoanalysis, the USDCNH could now target levels around 7.15 - the highs for 2019 and 2020 - where the 161.8% level of the move mentioned above also passes and where the renminbi could reach mid-July. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

The global cryptocurrency exchange KuCoin has released the Into The Cryptoverse US Report detailing statistics about the adoption of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies in the United States. The report provides important insights into the penetration of decentralized technologies and digital currencies into US citizens’ financial and investment behavior based on a survey conducted among adults in the US. According to the survey by KuCoin, the share of crypto investors among US adults has gone up 5% compared to Q4 of 2021, which is equivalent to 8 million people entering the cryptocurrency investment market. As of March of 2022, 50 million, or 27%, of US adults aged 18-60 are crypto investors who currently own or have traded in the past six months. The report also reveals essential shifts in demographics – in Q1 2022, women accounted for 35% of crypto investors, 5% up from the previous quarter. In Q1 2022, 47% of female crypto investors stated that they are familiar with how cryptocurrencies work and how to invest in them, which is 17% lower than their male counterparts. 41% of female crypto investors claimed to understand the basic concepts of cryptocurrencies, and another 12% only know cryptocurrency as a term. The findings show that the cryptocurrency market has become less men-dominated, and female crypto users have gradually increased. But at the same time, the gender gap in crypto literacy and confidence in crypto investment remains. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Interest in cryptocurrencies is rated high, as 53% of the surveyed US crypto investors claimed to have doubled down their money invested in cryptocurrencies in the first quarter of 2022. At the same time, 59% plan to increase their investment in cryptocurrencies over the next six months. The generation gap is also narrowing, as the share of 41-50-year-olds rose by 7% over the past quarter, cannibalizing the percentage of younger age groups.   Financial results from crypto investments have played an essential role in the given share since those earning more than $100,000 a year have grown by 7%. A contributing factor is a good level of familiarization with decentralized assets, as evidenced by the results of Q1 2022, in which 58% of crypto investors claimed that they were familiar with how cryptocurrencies work and the way to invest in them. The given share is a 6% drop from the previous quarter, indicating a more robust demand for crypto education. 68% of crypto investors report actively learning about crypto on social media, a 7% increase from the previous quarter. The number is higher among young investors aged 18-30, reaching 75% in Q1 2022. The top sources of crypto information are social networks, as 46% of respondents stated that they acquired their knowledge on YouTube, which is more prevalent than most crypto-specific data and news platforms. 32% of crypto investors find their data on Facebook, 25% on Twitter, and 24% on Instagram through searches for crypto-related content. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM The improvement of the quality of life is a leading factor for investments in cryptocurrencies among 37% of users, while 22% do so to buy things they enjoy. Financial freedom is a top goal for 27% of crypto investors, who hope to profit from cryptocurrency investments to free themselves from 9-to-5 workplace routines. The motivation is powerful among Millennials and Gen Z, and older Gen X. 28% of crypto investors above age 50 bet on crypto as part of their early retirement plan, and 18% plan to use crypto gains to start their businesses. Despite the lackluster results on penetration, 48% of US crypto investors consider cryptocurrencies to be “the future of finance,“ which is the top reason to invest across all age groups. For many, cryptocurrencies are a culture and a part of their identities and beliefs backed and strengthened by the communities formed around them. Younger users see cryptocurrencies as a source of hope for the future and a path to accumulate wealth. 37% of crypto investors expect to earn high returns from their crypto investments, in the long run, 38% use them as a source of passive income, and 31% consider them a reliable store of value. Another 36% stated that cryptocurrencies are a trend that has to be leveraged. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News The “Fear of missing out” factor is still a key driving factor for crypto investors since 26% of respondents stated that they invest in cryptocurrencies to gain short-term returns, while more than 35% invest to diversify overall portfolios as a growing number of brands and platforms supporting cryptocurrency payments emerges, as many as 35% of users stated that they are buying crypto for its uses in transactions. The KuCoin Into The Cryptoverse US Report indicates that a growing share of the US population is getting acquainted with cryptocurrencies, which have acquitted themselves as reliable investment assets with high yields. KuCoin believes that the penetration of decentralized technologies in US society will grow as sources of crypto-related information multiply and crypto payments become mainstream in light of the stabilization of the market. Click here to download the full report. About KuCoin Launched in September 2017, KuCoin is a global cryptocurrency exchange with its operational headquarters in Seychelles. As a user-oriented platform with a focus on inclusiveness and community action reach, it offers over 700 digital assets and currently provides spot trading, margin trading, P2P fiat trading, futures trading, staking, and lending to its 18 million users in 207 countries and regions. In 2022, KuCoin raised over $150 million in investments through a pre-Series B round, bringing total investments to $170 million with Round A combined, at a total valuation of $10 billion. KuCoin is currently one of the top 5 crypto exchanges according to CoinMarketCap. Forbes also named KuCoin one of the Best Crypto Exchanges in 2021. In 2022, The Ascent named KuCoin the Best Crypto App for enthusiasts. Find The Next Crypto Gem On KuCoin! Download KuCoin App>>> Sign up on KuCoin now>>> Follow us on Twitter>>> Join us on Telegram>>> Join the KuCoin Global Communities>>> Subscribe YouTube Channel>>> Source: KuCoin

Oil markets slumber Oil prices had another comatose session by their standards, barely rising from the day before. Nevertheless, both Brent crude and WTI have held on to all their recent gains, suggesting the weaker side is the upside in prices for now. While China slowdown fears are receding in the minds of traders, for now, fears persist around the increasing tightness of the US diesel market, and I suspect not ruling out export controls has unnerved international markets, and rightly so. I expect prices to remain firm for the rest of the week, with the global data calendar fairly light. Brent crude rose 0.60% to USD 114.35 overnight, where it remains in an equally quiet Asian session. WTI rose 0.40% to USD 110.70, adding just 20 cents to USD 110.90 a barrel in Asia. Brent crude has resistance at USD 115.00 and USD 116.00 today, with support at USD 112.00. A rally through USD 116.00 could set up a retest test of my medium-term resistance at USD 120.00. ​ WTI is taking comfort from the White House stance and is sitting in a USD 108.00 to USD 112.00 a barrel range. Nevertheless, a topside breakout by Brent crude will drag WTI higher as well, allowing a test of the USD 115.00 to USD 116.00 resistance zone. Gold weakens on US dollar strength Gold fell by 0.70% to USD 1853.25 an ounce overnight, retreating another 0.45% to USD 1845.00 an ounce in Asia. As I have touched on before, the true test of gold’s underlying strength will be maintaining gains in the face of a US dollar rally. The fall by gold over the last 24 hours in the face of modest US dollar strength does not fill me with confidence. Further US dollar strength could see gold face one of its ugly downside shakeouts. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Gold has nearby support at USD 1842.00, followed by USD 1836.00 an ounce. Failure sees the possibility of a mini-capitulation by longs that could reach as far as USD 1780.00 an ounce. On the topside, gold has resistance at USD 1870.00, followed by USD 1886.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Gold Price is holding above its 200-DMA in the $1,850 area and is back to nearly flat on the week. Traders are weighing the tailwinds of a softer USD and US yields versus strong US equities, as key Friday inflation data looms. How Fed And USD May Affect Gold? Gold Price (XAU/USD) is for now holding just above its 200-Day Moving Average at $1,839 and trading near the $1,850 level, though still with a slight downside bias on the day, despite Thursday’s worse-than-expected US GDP figures and Wednesday’s not as hawkish as feared Fed minutes release. Indeed, in wake of the weak data and modest paring back of hawkish Fed bets, the US dollar is a tad weaker and US yields are nudging lower, a combination that would normally be a tailwind for gold. Stronger Stocks - E.G. S&P 500 But US equities are rallying, with the S&P 500 last trading up around 1.4% on the day and eyeing a test of its 21-Day Moving Average for the first time since mid-April. On the week, the index is trading with gains of more than 3.0% and this appears to be weighing on the safe-haven precious metal. Traders are attributing stock market gains to weak GDP data reducing the need for aggressive Fed tightening and to strong earnings from a few US companies, including retail giant Macy’s. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Either way, the better tone to risk appetite is for now keeping XAU/USD on the back foot. Having been as high as the $1,870 level earlier in the week, spot gold’s gains on the week have been eroded back to only about 0.2% from around 1.2%. But the recent pullback towards the 200-DMA might prove a good opportunity for the gold bulls to add to long positions if they think that hawkish Fed bets will continue to be pared in the weeks ahead and, as a result, the buck and US yields continue softening. If it contributes to the strengthening narrative that US inflation has peaked, Friday’s US April Core PCE report could lead to a further reduction of Fed tightening bets and gold could well end the week back at highs in the $1,870 area. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Summary: What is the HEX Platform and how does it work? Advantages of the HEX exchange. HEX's past, present and future price positions. The HEX Platform HEX was launched in December 2019, and is the first blockchain Certificate of Deposit, that offers high returns, no minimum and decentralised design. The average return staked on HEX is around 38%. The current circulating supply of HEX is more than 173.4 billion coins, with no maximum supply. The market capitalization is more than $12.8 billion, which puts HEX in the top 10 cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalisation. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM HEX is an ERC20 token that is launched on the Ethereum network. The HEX token is designed to act as a store of value to replace the Certificate of Deposit as the blockchain counterpart of the Certificate of Deposits used in traditional financial markets. HEX token is also designed to leverage off the emerging decentralised finance (DeFi) ecosystem in finance using the Ethereum network. Outperforming Ethereum? According to HEX.com the HEX cryptocurrency was designed to outperform Ethereum, and has achieved good results since its inception. Behind the scenes, the HEX cryptocurrency is an advanced game theory that has been updated to eliminate all of Bitcoins flaws. HEX utilises the Ethereum network for the transaction layer (the layer that makes it possible to send and receive HEX tokens as well as allowing interactions with the HEX smart contract), whilst the consensus code and staking mechanism is contained in the HEX smart contract. Certificates of Deposits are common investment tools that are normally managed by banks. The Certificate of Deposit market is a trillion dollar market and is used worldwide. HEX took the concept of Certificates of Deposits, removed banking fees, added a higher average return rate and turned it into a decentralised cryptocurrency. HEX’s coin - HEX USD HEX allows their users to stake their HEX coins for a share of a new coin issuance, or inflation and contains features that are designed to incentivise behaviours that will encourage price appreciation and discourage behaviours that could harm the price. The HEX smart contracts rewards stakers for staking larger amounts of HEX for longer periods and penalises stakers for ending their stake early. When lockup periods are over, HEX coins are created to pay off the existing holders. At the end of the first year of launch, all HEX coins that were not claimed by Bitcoin holders are distributed to the rest of the HEX users who have active stakes. After the first year of launch, the maximum possible annual inflation is designed to be 3.69%. For Bitcoin holders, HEX coin is a free airdrop, when switching from Bitcoin to HEX, users are not required to pay anything in the process. Interest on HEX coins are paid in HEX, the monetary value of the paid interest is determined by the market value of HEX at the time of maturity. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Advantages of the HEX blockchain Faster and cheaper to transact, the Ethereum platform that HEX operates on Makes use of Ethereum's security which makes the HEX platform safe. The biggest benefits are offered for users that stake for a longer period of time. There are no intermediaries required for users that convert Ethereum to HEX. Early claimers are rewarded with bonuses. Bonuses are given to both the referrers and to those who are referred. Users who lock their HEX on time receive interest and unclaimed coins. Larger and longer term investments are rewarded with additional shares, the price per share continues to rise. HEX equalises incentives, therefore, the more participants on the network, the better. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News How to buy HEX Users will need to download the coinbase wallet if they want to buy HEX. Buy and transfer Ethereum (ETH) tokens and transfer them to your coinbase wallet. Using the trade tab, use your ETH to buy HEX. Past, present and future prices HEX price only started picking up in the first quarter of 2021, before then the price remained low. In October of 2021 the price of HEX rallied, and then fell again. HEX had a disappointing start to 2022 and lost 35% of its value. The current investor risk off sentiment has affected HEX the same way it has to some of the other cryptocurrencies. There is a link between the cryptocurrency market and the broader markets, the broader market sentiment's sell-off attitude is reflected in the graph below over the past few months. Some analysts believe that the price of HEX will continue to increase for the next 10 years, with the possibility of the price reaching $4 per coin by the time 2031 comes around. This forecast is based solely on numerical data, due to the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, it is difficult to make an accurate forecast for the price of HEX. HEX Price Chart Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Sources: finance.yahoo.com, coinbase.com, techstory.in, coinmarketcap.com, hex.com, technewsleader.com

AUDUSD finally tests very strong resistance at 7135/55. Shorts need stops above 7175. First support at 7060/50 for some profit taking on shorts before the weekend with better support at 7020/10. Longs need stops below 7000. NZD/USD - New Zealand Dollar To US Dollar NZDUSD shorts at strong resistance at 6505/25 need stops above 6545. A weekly close above here is a buy signal for the start of next week. Shorts at strong resistance at 6505/25 target 6475 & 6450/40, perhaps as far as 6410/00. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk

Fed minutes released on Wednesday weren’t as hawkish as many investors feared: the Fed deciders mostly agreed that inflation is too high and labour market is too tight and that they should raise the rates by 50bps for the next two meetings. But, there was no sign that the Fed would go down the 75bp hike road. US Indices, EUR/USD And Gold Price US indices gained for the second day as the FOMC minutes helped improving the investor mood. Nvidia jumped. But the futures are slightly in the negative at the time of writing, as the rally in energy prices certainly throw a shadow on the latest optimism, keeping the inflation worries tight, as the soaring energy prices are one of the major responsible for the skyrocketing inflation. The barrel of US crude rallied above the $115 mark, and consolidates above this level this morning. The US dollar continues softening, the EURUSD tests 1.0750 offers, gold remains bid above the 200-dma though with a fading positive momentum. Turkish Lira (TRY) The lira, on the other remains, and should remain under decent negative pressure as the central bank insists keeping its policy rate at 14% level. And finally, Bitcoin slides below the $30K mark as the ECB points to financial stability concerns due to cryptocurrencies. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 Fed is not 'that' hawkish after all! 2:54 Market update 4:19 Dark clouds above our head 5:17 Citi says 'buy the dip' in European & EM stocks 7:14 I say 'be careful' with Turkish BIST & the lira 9:00 FX, commodity update: EUR, Gold and Bitcoin Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

We think that the combination of a material improvement in the global risk environment and further USD-adverse widening of short-term rate differentials is unlikely, and therefore expect the (now less overbought) dollar to find a floor soon. This means that a EUR/USD return below 1.0700 in the coming days looks more plausible than another rally USD: Bearish arguments are not very strong The dollar is set to face a second consecutive week of losses against all G10 currencies, as yesterday’s very positive session in US equities helped Asian equities trade in the green along with most European stock index futures. While the risk sentiment channel has, by and large, remained the primary driver of FX moves, the market’s tentative speculation about a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle in September is surely contributing to keeping the dollar soft. In the past week, we have seen around 10bp of tightening being priced out of the Fed’s rate expectations for this year, while the likes of the ECB have seen all but a consolidation of expected tightening plans. In our view, however, it's hard to see a much calmer risk environment amid global monetary tightening and multiple downside risks (China, Russia/Ukraine), and a further shrinking of the USD’s short-term rate advantage over other G10 currencies, given that the FOMC rhetoric is still very hawkish. We see a higher chance of recovery in US rate expectations, which should put a floor under the greenback. When adding a more balanced positioning picture following the latest moves, we think that the dollar’s downside risk is now looking less pronounced, and we favour instead a recovery to the 103.00 level in DXY. Today, risk-sentiment dynamics are still set to drive the vast majority of dollar moves, although markets will keep an eye on any drop in the US personal spending figures for April and in the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – the PCE deflator. There are no scheduled Fed speakers. EUR: Upside potential more limited now EUR/USD is making a fresh attempt at breaking significantly above 1.0750 (the 50-day moving average) this morning, continuing to benefit from the soft dollar environment and some recent eurozone data having left markets more comfortable with pricing in front-loaded tightening (100bp) by the ECB this year. As discussed above, we see a higher chance of some recovery in the dollar from the current levels rather than an extension of the drop, and with a lot of ECB tightening now in the price, the room for the euro to benefit further from the monetary-policy factor appears limited. We expect a return below 1.0700 in the coming days. Today, we’ll hear from the ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, whose recent comments have however merely backed President Christine Lagarde’s recent guidance. GBP: Bar to trigger a hawkish repricing is set high The pound received only some modest support yesterday as British Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a £15bn support package to fight the rising cost of living. The fiscal measures should in theory allow the Bank of England to fully focus on fighting inflation and feel more comfortable hiking interest rates – ultimately, a GBP positive. However, markets had previously been quite reluctant to price out the bigger chunk of the BoE tightening cycle, and were already pricing in a policy rate in the 2.00-2.25% area for year-end before Sunak’s fiscal package. This helps explain the pound’s somewhat muted reaction yesterday, and also suggests the bar to trigger further hawkish repricing in the BoE rate expectation curve is quite elevated. In the longer run, as we expect the BoE to underdeliver compared to rate expectations, the pound is still looking likely to face some pressure from the short-term rate differential side. For now, swings in risk sentiment should continue to drive most day-to-day moves. A consolidation around 0.8450-0.8500 in EUR/GBP seems plausible. HUF: Another blow for the forint but let's not throw it overboard Wednesday's decision by the Hungarian government regarding the state of emergency found the forint unguarded and suddenly we are at the weakest levels since the beginning of March. Yesterday's announcement of the tax package, which is expected to bring in more than HUF800bn this year and next, did not help the forint much. For now, the HUF has settled in the 390-395 range. With such FX weakening, markets are raising bets on an emergency rate hike next week. However, in our view, this is far from certain. Thus, market disappointment may lead to further forint weakening to the 400 level, which would be the weakest in history. On the other hand, it is necessary to keep in mind that the market has already priced in a lot of negative news, led by the Ukrainian conflict and the halt of EU money inflows. In addition, the central bank's dovish tone may quickly revert back to aggressive rate hikes after the next inflation print. Thus, we are negative on the forint in the short term, but we continue to monitor headlines that should unlock the hidden potential of the forint in the second half of the year. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Asian equities move higher Asian markets have begun the day in an altogether positive mode after Wall Street outperformed overnight. Driving the equity rally were good results from department store retailers, notably high-end ones. The only blotch was Gap, which fell down a Gap with its stock price punished accordingly. That allowed the perpetually circling and no desperate buy-the-dip mafia to load up on risk positioning again with the US dollar also falling. It also allowed markets to ignore a downward revision of US Q1 GDP QoQ to -1.50%, Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index for May falling to 19, and Pending New Home Sales for April slumping deeper into negative territory at -9.1%. The latter is particularly ironic as recent soft housing data had been responsible for some previously ugly sessions on Wall Street recently. Still, why let the facts get in the way of the desperation to buy the dip. US 10-Year Yields Notable once again, is that US 10-year yields are once again retesting the four-decade downtrend line, which by my estimates comes in around 2.75%. Fears of gasoline and diesel shortages during the US driving season also pushed oil prices over 3.0% higher overnight. Some unofficial gossip ahead of next week’s monthly OPEC+ JTC meeting suggests that the grouping will stick to its scheduled 432,000 bpd incremental increase. Brent crude could test the top of my USD 120.00 a barrel medium-term range next week. I can’t see US yields and oil moving higher being constructive for equities next week. COVID In data out of Asia today, Tokyo’s Core CPI in May remained at 1.90%, although with the Bank of Japan saying inflation is driven by external factors, and not the Japanese consumer, we shouldn’t expect any change in their ultra-low forever stance. Australian Preliminary Retail Sales eased, as expected, to 0.90% with no serious cost-of-living cracks appearing as yet in the Lucky Country. ​ China’s Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY for April fell to 3.50% from 8.50% in March. The Shanghai shutdowns and covid-zero policies account for the slowdown, but market impact was minimal as the number was right on market expectations. China will have bigger fish to fry going forward as it tries to keep growth and the property market on track, while enacting sweeping lockdowns across parts of the country thanks to its covid-zero policy. The rest of Asia’s calendar is light with Singapore PPI likely to be ignored after yesterday’s firmer Industrial Production data eased slowdown fears. Europe’s calendar is similarly second-tier. US Personal Income and Personal Spending for April, along with the PCE Price Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment round out the week. Personal Income and Expenditure and the PCE Index could settle nerves on inflation and Fed tightening if they print on the low side, ditto for Michigan Consumer Sentiment. That would set Wall Street up for another positive season to round out the week and weigh on the US dollar. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Apart from oil, most of this week has been one of frantic range trading, as the herd runs this way and that on swings in risk sentiment. Lots of noise, little substance, although reading the financial press swinging from doom to bloom day-to-day has been mentally tiring. Next week sees the arrival of June and its “business time.” Asia sees the release of China and India PMIs and Australian GDP and Trade Balances. Europe has German, French and Eurozone Inflation, as well as the ongoing saga of an EU oil ban on Russia. Russia has kindly offered to allow exports of wheat from Ukraine and Russia, in return for sanctions relief. I believe June will be a watershed month for Europe, the UK, and America as to the depth of their commitment to a war economy and Russia. Perversely, if they blink for short-term national gains, it would be quite a tailwind for global equities and bonds. The financial markets are a harsh mistress. Bank Of Canada June also brings us a bevy of US data and a Bank of Canada policy decision next week. US data releases include the house price index, JOLTS Job Openings and ADP Employment, and ISM Manufacturing before the one ring to rule them all, Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. Oddly enough, the most important event of them all is being largely ignored by markets to their peril. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM In the Dark Tower of the Fed, they have USD 8.5 trillion of debt instruments they need to get rid of. Quantitative tightening starts next week, scaling up to USD 95 bio a month by September. I’d hate to see the mark-to-market P&L on that position, but I guess when you can print money, it doesn’t matter. It may well matter to markets though with the Fed also set to tighten by 0.50% per month over the coming months (including June). I am yet to be convinced that the Fed can pull this off without causing another taper tantrum or sending the US 10-years well north of 3.0%, or both. They, like everyone else, will be hoping inflation indicators flatten in the months ahead, to keep the bids out there in the bond market. All I’ll say is don’t mistake short-term noise in the equity market as a structural turn in direction higher. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Bitcoin is down 2.5% over the past week, ending near $29,200. Ethereum lost 10.6%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell from 1% (Polkadot) to 14.8% (Solana). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 2.4% over the week to $1.26 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index jumped 1.3 points to 44.9% over the same time due to the better performance of the first cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down to 10 points by Monday. However, this drop does not consider the positive market performance in the early hours on Monday. Bitcoin has closed lower for eight consecutive weeks, the longest sell-off streak in the first cryptocurrency’s existence. But the last two weeks have been very tentative declines. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News How Much Is 1 Bitcoin? On Monday morning, BTCUSD surpassed the $30K mark again and returned to last week’s highs, breaking above the downside resistance line in a strong move. It will be premature to talk about a bullish counteroffensive until Bitcoin gets above $30.6K, its horizontal resistance line since mid-May. Renewed risk appetite in global markets is fuelling hopes of a turnaround. Divergence in equity and cryptocurrency dynamics was conspicuous last week, highlighting the weakness of the crypto market. Bill Miller, head of investment firm Miller Value Partners, called bitcoin an effective means of accessing financial services regardless of military and economic situations Dan Held, business development director at crypto exchange Kraken, believes the current crypto crisis is not as severe as previous ones, as institutional players have entered the market in recent years and increased market liquidity. We would add that thanks to the expanded crypto market capacity, we haven’t seen as much of a surge in the bull cycle of 2021 as we did in 2013 and 2017, which explains the not-so-high ‘winter’ losses. MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said he will always buy bitcoin. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM According to him, BTC is the most reliable asset in this very volatile world. Bill Miller, head of investment firm Miller Value Partners, called bitcoin an effective means of accessing financial services regardless of military and economic situations. Regulation of cryptocurrencies would help with the crisis in the crypto market, according to Deutsche Bank.

A positive start to the week in Asia is helped by easing movement restrictions in China, but US payrolls and quantitative tightening could test that resolve later on... Source: shutterstock Macro Outlook Global: It is the US Memorial day holiday today (Monday), and equity markets rallied into the long weekend, providing a positive tone at the start of this week in Asia markets. News channels this morning noted that the equity rally took place on thin volumes, which is a bit of an exaggeration, though volumes were a bit below average, while the sell-offs recently seem to have more conviction. News stories trying to pinpoint the bottom for markets are still talking about equities approaching average forward P/E valuations. Though surely just touching an average from above is not sufficient to call a trough – averages don’t work that way – at least not if they are stationary. What are they teaching people in maths classes these days? Aside from the rally in stocks, most markets were fairly rangebound on Friday. EURUSD remained at about 1.0727, though looked to push above 1.0770 and below 1.0700 – both without success. AUD has clambered back to 0.7158, and there were also widespread gains amongst the Asian FX pairs, led by the KRW and CNY. Treasury yields were little changed on the previous day’s close. This week we get US non-farm payrolls, which could stir things up a bit. We also get the start of “Quantitative Tightening” (QT) from mid-week on, as the US Fed starts to draw down on its bloated balance sheet at a $30bn monthly rate for Treasuries and $17.5bn monthly rate for agency MBS. This will show just what impact (if any) actual selling has on the market, or whether this is entirely in the price. We also get Eurozone CPI inflation for May tomorrow (Tuesday). Consensus sees this rising to 7.8%YoY from 7.5% in April. And yet the ECB is still purchasing assets and is not expected to start raising rates until July. Enough said.  China: Shanghai announced approval for the resumption of work and production as a sign that it is lifting its lockdowns. However, workers still need a pass to leave their homes for work. Currently, permission is only granted to leave home a few times a week. This situation will change, but it will need to change quickly to be consistent with the resumption of work. In Beijing, the lockdown has been relaxed in the Chaoyang CBD area. The same problem is that workers who do not live in Chaoyang may not be able to get to their workplaces. Meanwhile, other cities are adopting regular and frequent Covid testing to try to detect positive cases early enough to stop the chain of transmission of the virus. As for stimulus measures, in addition to last week's national-level stimuli, Shanghai has offered more incentives, mainly to boost consumption, especially on pure electric vehicles. What to look out for: US non-farm payrolls Philippines bank lending (30 May) Fed Waller speech (30 May) South Korea industrial production (31 May) Japan retail sales and job-applicant ratio (31 May) China PMI manufacturing (31 May) Thailand trade balance (31 May) US Conference board expectations (31 May) Fed Williams speech (1 June) South Korea trade (1 June) Regional PMI manufacturing (1 June) Australia 1Q GDP (1 June) US ISM manufacturing (1 June) Fed Bullard speech (2 June) Indonesia CPI inflation (2 June) Australia trade balance (2 June) US ADP jobs, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders (2 June) South Korea CPI inflation (3 June) US non-farm payrolls and ISM services (3 June) Fed Mester speech (3 June) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Gold (XAU/USD) opens early Monday in Asia bouncing off Friday's low of $1948, despite the slight rebound in US Dollar Index (DXY). Dollar May Be Back Rising   The easing of US Dollar Index from the downward pressure may be linked to the market's passivity following the US bank holiday today as well as the anticipation for faster rate hikes considering the latest inflation data. US Holidays This week's soft calendar and bank holiday in the US may restrict gold's price actions. However, headlines from Russia and China will be tracked closely for any impulsive catalyst, aside from the US Nonfarm Payroll report this Friday. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM

A holiday-shortened week starts with risk assets in demand as China marginally softens lockdown curbs and the pricing of a Fed pause allows interest to return to FX carry trades. That could see the dollar hand back a little more of its recent strength, although strong US data later in the week should limit the extent of the dollar's downside Source: Shutterstock USD: Interest in dollar-funded carry emerges The dollar is now about 3% off its highs in early May. Driving that correction has certainly been the view that the Fed could pause its tightening cycle after hiking 50bp in both June and July. The Fed funds rate for the 21 September meeting is now priced at 2.15%. At the start of May, it was priced at 2.35%. Clearly, US data and Fed speak will have a big say in the pricing of that Fed cycle. Today US markets are closed for the US Memorial Day public holiday, but the big data point of the week, Friday's release of May nonfarm payrolls, will have an important say for the Fed. Here James Knightley looks for another strong set of numbers, which should prove supportive for both US yields and the dollar. Until then, the dollar remains subject to corrective forces on the back of renewed interest in carry trades. Here, one month USD/JPY implied volatility has sunk back below 10% to signal calmer market conditions and for us, Friday's standout move was the huge rally in the Mexican peso. The peso is the big beast in the emerging market FX space and the USD/MXN drop to 19.50, the lowest level since early 2020, represents some confidence returning to the emerging market FX space. Indeed, some brave investors may be making the play that the dollar has topped and that putting money to work in EM local currency bonds can help cement the top in EM local rate cycles and trigger a virtuous cycle of gains in both the currency and the bond. For example, Mexican 10-year local currency bond yields have recently topped out at 9% and now trade at 8.50%. We think it is too early for those trades since both US yields and the dollar may well have another leg higher later this year, but this is a trend that certainly bears watching. US holiday-thinned trading should keep FX subdued today, but some modest reopening in China and some healthy equity gains should maintain the slightly softer dollar bias for the next few days. DXY is undertaking a slightly deeper correction than we thought and can continue to drift down to the 101.00 area. EUR: Another high German CPI to keep hawks in the ascendancy EUR/USD continues to nudge higher as the Fed pause, marginally better risk environment and ECB hawkishness all combine. Recent reports suggest the speculative community has been cutting its short euro positions. Yet we do not think there are strong arguments for EUR/USD to move back to and above 1.10. After all, the surge in energy prices is being more keenly felt in Europe and the deterioration in Europe's terms of trade has damaged the euro's medium-term fair value. Our preference would be for this EUR/USD correction to top out near 1.08. But for the short term, the external environment will keep EUR/USD supported. For today, we will get the first look at German inflation data for May. This is expected to push up to a new cycle high at 7.6% year-on-year and keep the hawks in the ascendancy at the ECB. That said, the recent narrowing in the two-year Germany-US sovereign spread seems to have run its course and unless one expects the ECB to sound even more hawkish (four to five ECB hikes are already priced this year) or the Fed to turn decisively less hawkish, EUR/USD looks unlikely to get too much more support from the yield spread side. GBP: Quiet week for the sterling story The UK data calendar is quite light this week. That leaves sterling mildly bid after last week's £15bn fiscal stimulus provided some support to otherwise fragile pricing of the BoE tightening cycle. The GBP/USD bounce has certainly been slightly stronger than we thought (we had thought 1.2600/2650 would be the corrective top) and a slightly negative dollar environment at the start of this week could see GBP/USD extend to 1.2730/2770. Longer term, we can still see GBP/USD heading back to the low 1.20s later this summer. EUR/GBP looks set to gravitate around 0.8500 for a while. CEE: Return of a hawkish tone to tame inflation In central and eastern Europe, the main event this week will be the Hungarian central bank meeting. This, in our view, will bring a 60bp hike in the base rate to 6% and a 30bp increase in the deposit rate to 6.75%. However, the weak forint may force the central bank to make a bolder move. Across the region, a breakdown of 1Q GDP growth will be released, which surprised positively in the flash estimate, so the market will be watching the reason behind this and indications for the second quarter. A piece to the puzzle will also come from the PMI for May, which like the eurozone should stagnate or fall just slightly. As always, Poland will be the first in the region to show the way for inflation. We expect it to rise from 11% to above 12.5% YoY, which should reignite the hawkish tone from the central bank, supporting higher rates and prompting the FX market to erase the losses of recent days. Of course, the biggest focus this week will be on forint, which is within reach of all-time lows following recent government decisions. A possible market disappointment would thus bring a move towards the magic level of 400 EUR/HUF, but we assume that this is not the central bank's intention. The zloty reached its strongest levels since the start of the Ukrainian conflict at the end of the last week and a strong CPI number and higher rates should ensure that it holds onto its gains at least. The koruna remains under central bank control and despite the currency's weakening last week, we do not expect the Czech National Bank to allow a move towards EUR 25/CZK territory. Read this article on THINK

The week starts on a positive note after the rally we saw in the US stocks before last week’s closing bell. European futures hint at a positive open. The US 10-year yield stabilized around the 2.75% mark, and the US dollar index is now back to its 50-DMA level, giving some sigh of relief to the FX markets overall. Bonds and Equities One interesting thing is that we observe that the equities and bonds stopped moving together since the 10-year yield hit 3% threshold, suggesting that investors started moving capital to less risky bonds if they quit equities, instead of selling everything and sitting on cash. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM US Jobs Data, Expensive Crude Oil   That’s one positive sign in terms of broader risk appetite and should help assessing a bottom near the actual levels. But the end of the equity selloff depends on economic data. Released on Friday, the US PCE index fell from 6.6 to 6.3% in April. Due this week, the US jobs data, and the wages growth will take the center stage in the Fed talk. Weak dollar pushes the major peers higher, but the rising oil prices preoccupy investors this Monday. The barrel of US crude is above $117, and the news flow suggests further positive pressure. But till where?   Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 Market update 1:04 Equity, bond correlation is down since US 10-yield hit 3%! 2:58 Economic data is key: what to watch this week? 4:22 BoC to raise rates 5:09 EURUSD pushes higher 6:10 Oil under positive pressure: OPEC, UK windfall tax 9:19 Corporate calendar: GME, HP earnings, Amazon stock split Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Weekly Recap It was another bearish week for the US Dollar as the greenback continued to sell off from YTD highs. The FOMC meeting minutes, released mid-week, did little to inspire a fresh rally in the Dollar. While the minutes confirmed the Fed’s hawkish stance and reinforced expectations for further 50bps hikes in June and July, there was little in the way of exciting details to get bulls reinvigorated. Additionally, with the Fed having seemingly turned more hawkish since that meeting, the minutes felt a little outdated. Christine Lagarde, ECB And Rate Hikes On the data front, a string of weaker-than-expected indicators out of the eurozone heightened growth concerns. With ECB’s Lagarde essentially confirming a July rate-hike, recession fears weighed on European asset markets though EUR itself remained well bid. Elsewhere, equities markets generally saw a choppy week though most indices ended the week in the green, benefitting from the weaker US Dollar. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM BOE’s Bailey warned that further rate hikes will likely be necessary in the face of rising inflation. The new fiscal package announced by the UK government this week, aimed at helping households fight rising energy bills, has further increased the likelihood of BOE rate hikes in the near-term. Weaker Dollar, Stronger Crude, Gold And Silver Commodities prices were higher over the week also. Gold, silver and oil all rallied on the back of a weaker US Dollar. With monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks drying up, USD pressure has helped commodities stay afloat recently. Coming Up This Week Australian GDP Australian GDP will be closely watched this week on the back of the recent RBA rate hike. With the bank lifting rates and sounding firmly hawkish in its outlook and assessment, this week’s data might further support growing RBA rate hike expectations. With the country having emerged from one of the longest lockdowns of the pandemic, the economy has been on the bounce-back. However, as we have seen elsewhere, the economy has still been rocked by rising inflation and supply constraints. Traders will be keen to see the extent to which these factors weighed on the economy over the last quarter. BOC Rate Decision The BOC is widely expected to raise rates when it convenes for this month’s meeting mid-week. All 30 economists polled by Reuters ahead of the event are looking for a .5% hike. With this in mind, the focus will be on the bank’s forward guidance. If the BOC gives a clear signal that further hikes are coming in the near future, this should drive CAD higher near-term. However, if there is any indication that the BOC might look to hold off on any further rate hikes near-term, this will likely see cad dragged lower. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM US Non-Farm Payrolls The latest set of US labour market indicators this week will be closely watched as we head to the June meeting. Recent Fed commentary has been decidedly hawkish and it would likely take a major downside shock to change this narrative. Even then, it certainly wouldn’t impact the June rate hike and would likely only factor in forward guidance issued by the Fed. Still, with slowdown fears building, any weakness would no doubt act as a headwind to risk sentiment in the short-term. Forex Heat Map Technical Analysis Our favourite chart this week is the Dollar Index (DXY) The DYX has pulled back from recent multi-year highs and is now sitting on a make-or-break level at 101.94. This level was the 2020 closing high price. While the level holds as support, DXY is likely to recover and continue the longer-term bull trend. Below here, however, there is room for the correction to develop further towards next support at 100.37 Economic Calendar Plenty of key data releases to keep an eye on this week including Australian GDP, BOC rate decision and US Non-Farm Payrolls to name a few. Please see full calendar below for the complete schedule . Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Jonny Hart speaks to APAC Senior Market Analyst Jeffrey Halley about news impacting the market and the week ahead. It’s June already and a blockbuster week for data releases around the world. First of all, we take a look back at last Friday’s impressive US equity close. Jeff discusses its drivers, its threats, and potentially, its longevity. Then it’s over to Asian equity markets today which are also enjoying a banner day. US Stocks And China   The US Friday session and also covid-zero developments in China over the weekend are driving “most” stock markets higher. Potential banana skin is looming though, with Brent crude rising above $120.00 a barrel in Asia today. Jeff looks at the oil market, what’s driving the price increase, and its potential impact on market sentiment this week. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Holidays And US Non-farm Payrolls There are a number of holidays this week, starting with US markets today, then Greater China is dragon boating on Friday, and the UK has two days off at the end of the week. Happy Jubilee Your Majesty. We discuss how holidays can impact markets. Finally, it’s a wrap of the heavy-duty data calendar across Asia and the US this week, culminating in the US Non-Farm Payrolls. Jeff highlights also, something that markets have been ignoring up until now, the start this week, of Federal Reserve Quantitative tightening. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

What is going on US core PCE prices.  US core PCE data was out on Friday, and it came in as expected at 4.9% y/y and 0.3% m/m. This was slower than last month's 5.2% y/y and may prompt more talk of inflation peaking out. While PCE is the preferred Fed metric, what cannot be ignored right now is that food and energy prices still have more room to run on the upside suggesting that inflation will remain higher for longer. The May CPI print is due on June 10, so that will be the next one on the radar for further cues in terms of Fed's rate hike trajectory but for this week, the focus will be on the jobs report due on Friday Goldman predicts end of battery metal bull market – saying that the prices for key battery metals cobalt, lithium and nickel will fall over the next two years after an over-eager speculation phase. Goldman predicts that lithium prices could drop slightly this year to $54k from recent spot prices near $60k and fall to near $16k in 2023 before rising again further down the road. There’s been “a surge in investor capital into supply investment tied to the long-term EV demand story, essentially trading a spot driven commodity as a forward-looking equity,” the analysts said. “That fundamental mispricing has in turn generated an outsized supply response well ahead of the demand trend.” Oil prices are becoming an important cross-asset driver.  Brent crude oil closed last week just shy of the $120/barrel level (see above) and also just shy of the highest weekly close for the front month contract since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. As the $120 area was often a resistance area during the high oil price period during 2011-14 (although at that time, the US dollar was far weaker), any further significant advance from here will likely dominate market attention and work against further strong improvements in risk sentiment as high energy prices cloud the growth outlook and would erode corporate profit margins. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Benchmark Capital and Sequoia Capital put out a dim outlook for technology.  Both venture capital firms were around during the dot-com bubble run-up and burst, and they have both put out perspective and action plans for the companies they have invested in. Those presentations talk about a much dimmer outlook and investors are shifting focus from revenue growth and revenue multiples to that of free cash flow here and now. Cost-cutting and focus on profitable unit metrics are now paramount to survive the coming years. What are we watching next? US Memorial Day Holiday today. This is a major national holiday, so all US markets are closed today. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Eurozone inflation prints out this week.  The energy price shock has been bigger for Europe, and May prints are due for Spain, Germany, France, Italy and the Euro-area in the week ahead. Food price pressures continue to build up amid the supply shortages and protectionist measures, and further gains in May will add more weight to the ECB’s resolve to exit negative rates from Q3 with more aggressive tightening. Special meeting of the European Council today and tomorrow.  Talks will focus on the implementation of a proposed embargo on oil imports from Russia (from 2024 onwards according to the latest draft). Hungary is the only EU country against it. The problem is that any new sanctions against Russia require the unanimous agreement of the 27 member states in order to pass. Expect tough negotiations. Hungary’s Prime minister Viktor Orban has recently passed on a “wish list” of demands he wants met to support oil sanctions. This includes a swap line with the European Central Bank and end to the rule of law Article 7 and “conditionality mechanism” procedures, amongst other things. Australian GPD and balance of trade on watch and could disappoint.  Australian GPD data due Wednesday is expected to show economic growth fell from 4.2% YoY to 3% YoY in Q1. Quarterly GPD is expected to grow just 0.7%, following the 3.4% rise in Q4. If data is stronger than what consensus expects, the RBA has more ammunition to rise rates more than forecast, so the AUDUSD might rally. If GPD is weaker, then, the AUD will likely fall. For equities, Australian financials could rally if data is stronger than expected. Secondly, Australian Export and Import data is released Thursday. The market expects Australia’s surplus income (Export income minus imports payments) to rise from $9.4b to $9.5b in April. But given the iron ore price fell 13% in April, the trade data could miss expectations. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News Several central banks in focus this week.  Tomorrow, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) will likely deliver a hike of 50 basis points to 5.9 %. The NBH has recently flagged a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes which had a detrimental impact on the Hungarian currency. What the central bank needs to do now is to define more explicitly the risks to growth, the effect that it would have on inflation this year but especially in 2023, the pace of rate hike and how financing conditions could evolve in the next 12-18 months. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada is expected to increase interest rates by 50 basis points, from 1% to 1.5% (it has downplayed the possibility of a 75-basis-point hike in the short term). The move has already been priced in the market. Further interest hikes will come in the coming months in order to fight inflation which is running at a 31-year high of 6.8% YoY in April. Last week, former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz mentioned the risk that the country will fall into stagflation this year. Earnings Watch.  This week’s earnings releases are weak in terms of impact expect from earnings from Salesforce, Lululemon and Meituan. Analysts are expecting Salesforce to report FY23 Q1 revenue (ending 30 April) growth of 24% y/y on top of a significant operating margin expansion expected to boost free cash flow generation substantially. Monday: Sino Biopharmaceutical, Huazhu Group Tuesday: DiDi Global, Salesforce, HP, KE Holdings Wednesday: Acciona Energias Renovables, China Resources Power, Veeva Systems, HP Enterprise, MongoDB, NetApp, Chewy, GameStop, UiPath, SentinelOne, Elastic, Weibo Thursday: Trip.com, Pagseguro Digital, Remy Cointreau, Toro, Cooper Cos, Meituan, Crowdstrike, Lululemon, Okta, RH, Asana, Hormel Foods Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Euro zone Economic, Industrial, Services Confidence surveys 1200 – Germany May Flash CPI 1500 – US Fed’s Waller (Voter) to speak 1700 – ECB's Nagel to speak 2030 – New Zealand RBNZ’s Hawkesby to speak 2300 – South Korea Apr. Industrial Production 2330 – Japan Apr. Jobless Rate 2350 – Japan Apr. Jobless Rate 2350 – Japan Apr. Industrial Production 0030 – New Zealand May ANZ Business Confidence survey 0130 – China May Manufacturing/Non-manufacturing PMI 0130 – Australia Apr. Building Approvals 0130 – Australia Apr. Private Sector Credit Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Saxo Bank

Asian markets are mostly positive this morning as Shanghai announced a raft of stimulus measures and both Shanghai and Beijing eased Covid-19 restrictions. The devil is in the detail of course, and corkers in both cities still face challenges either going to work, or even being allowed to leave the house. Nor has the reality that the virus only has to get lucky once, prompting the reimposition of tightened covid-zero restrictions, in the minds of investors. Such minutiae are usually ignored by markets when it doesn’t suit the preferred narrative, and so it is today. Asia is pricing in peak virus in China and a recovery in growth. Wall Street Another tailwind was the strong performance by Wall Street on Friday, which closed out a banner week prompting the usual “maybe this is the bottom” response from the financial press and FOMO investors. That was assisted by US data on Friday. Personal Income and Expenditure for April were still robust, but eased from March’s numbers, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment retreated from 65.2 in April to a still-healthy 58.4 for May. Lower data equalling reduced need for Fed tightening equals buy everything. Simple really. Although I must say, I’m struggling to see how a slowing US economy is good for equities, I don’t want to spoil the party though. Crude Oil - EU Banning Russian Crude Another negative headwind being completely ignored by markets is oil prices. Brent crude has edged above USD 120.00 a barrel this morning as the European Union continues its efforts to get Hungary on board for a proposed EU ban on Russian crude imports. The underlying driver though is the massive squeeze on refined products we are seeing around the world, which is lifting the base ingredient for all that diesel and petrol that has got very expensive. The world would have been flapping and wringing its hands about the end of days if we had said Brent crude was above USD 120.00 a barrel a month or two or three or four ago; now it is being ignored. By the way, if China recovers, oil prices will as well; just saying. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Non-farm Payrolls - Fed's Sell-off Also being ignored by markets completely in Non-Farm Payroll week is that the Federal Reserve also starts quantitative tightening this week. The Fed will start to sell USD 47.50 billion of bonds and MBS’ per month, scaling up to USD 95 billion per month by September. Meanwhile, the ECB is still quantitatively easing while talking about hiking rates to errrr, zero per cent. And there is a war in Eastern Europe. Long EUR/USD above 1.0800 anybody? Despite being less than impressed with either the Fed’s guidance or overall performance over the past year or so, at least they’re not the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. I find it highly unlikely they will abruptly swing to less a hawkish stance between now and September, meaning three more 0.50% hikes into September and fewer jokes being made about their credibility. Additionally, the USD 8.5 trillion balance sheet needs to reduce is carb and saturated fat intake, so quantitative tightening it is. From my position as a pilot fish cleaning the teeth of the capital markets sharp on the periphery, none of this is being priced in, although I acknowledge that markets can remain irrational, longer than you can stay solvent. Read next: Altcoins: Tezos (XTZ) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tezos Platform | FXMAG.COM Chinese PMI Now that I have fulfilled my role as the voice of reason on a Monday, it is time to have a look at what the week ahead brings. Asia’s calendar is dead today with the week’s highlights being China’s Official and Caixin PMIs coming out tomorrow and Wednesday. Wednesday and Thursday also see a swath of manufacturing and services PMIs from the rest of Asia, while Australia releases its April Trade Balance on Thursday. China’s data will have a very binary impact this week if peak-covid is here. Soft data will likely ramp up fears of a slowdown, with a decent showing likely to see hot money flowing in looking for the bottom. Soft data from the rest of Asia will raise fears of spreading China contagion. Watch also for Indonesian Inflation on Wednesday. A high print will increase the pressure on Bank Indonesia to finally hike this month. Holidays Holidays will play their part this week. US markets are closed for Memorial Day today, although electronic trading is open in Asia. Indonesia is closed Wednesday while mainland China and Hong Kong and Taiwan are closed on Friday for the International Dragon Boat Festival. Thursday and Friday see United Kingdom markets closed for a bank holiday and Her Majesty’s Platinum Jubilee. Activity in Asia will likely be muted from Thursday. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News Eurozone Inflation Today features German May Inflation with Eurozone, French and Italian Inflation tomorrow. High prints will likely increase the hiking noise around the ECB and could extend the euro’s recent gains. The ECB should probably stop quantitatively easing first though. Eurozone and US Manufacturing PMIs are released on Wednesday, along with US ADPO Employment that forecasters will pointlessly use to extrapolate Friday’s data. We also have a Bank of Canada policy decision which should feature a 0.50% hike. Falling NFP? Finally, on Friday, we will see May’s US Non-Farm Payrolls data. Market expectations are a moving target this week, but as of today, markets are expecting a fall from 428,000 in April to a still robust 320,000 for May. Trading the data in the hour after its release has always been a sure-fire way to lose money. But if pushed, I would say a lower number will have the market pricing in less Fed tightening, while a higher number might dish out a cold dose of reality to the bottom-fishers in equity, bond, and currency markets ahead of the mid-month FOMC meeting. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Summary:  Today we look at the squeeze in equity markets that extended aggressively into the close of last week, with this week off to a strong start, in part on hopes for a shift in Chinese covid policy. We also look at the dissonances in the narrative should China drive new global demand that reaggravates inflationary dynamics as some of the recent market rally has been on hopes that inflation fears and anticipated Fed tightening policy have peaked for the cycle. We also highlight the stress in the VC space, Hungary's Orban boxing above his weight class, the dynamics in the crude market as Brent crude posted its second highest weekly close for the cycle last week, earnings ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Saxo Bank

Summary:  Commodities have seen hefty prices increases in the past two years, which is bad for inflation and for life in general but is one of very few asset classes where a profit can be made in very depressed markets.​ It’s hardly news that the cost of living – or inflation – is going up at a rate which the world hasn’t seen for decades. Food is getting more expensive, electricity is going up, it is more costly to buy and build stuff. In short, everything you want to do and consume costs (a lot) more than it did a year ago.There is one area – or in finance lingo, asset class – which is the root cause of this situation, and it has politicians and economists scratching their heads to find solutions: commodities. Commodities are the basic input to everything we do. It covers energy production, raw materials, metals, food, etc.When you look at commodities from a societal point of view, there isn't a lot of good news:“In short, what happens in the commodity sector is troubling. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 24% on the first quarter and if you look at average annual returns it has almost doubled since 2020,” says Ole Hansen, Head of commodity strategy at Saxo. In this quote, Hansen points to something interesting when dealing with an asset class like commodities, because it affects both the financial markets, and day-to-day life. When investing in an index, which is up that much in such a short time, you would usually be celebrating, but it isn’t always a good thing for commodities to climb so high, so fast.“Commodities are the basic input for everything we do, which means that when they get more expensive, so does everything else. Commodities need to find a more stable level for consumers and companies alike to feel comfortable, which no one is now,” says Hansen.As Hansen describes, surging commodity prices can have grave effects on society at large especially in less wealthy parts of the world, and its solution can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. “Most people will have to wind back on their spending. This will cause an economic slowdown, which hurts, but unfortunately seems to be the only cure right now against high inflation,” he says.The other edge While commodities need to become more stable for its societal impact, the asset class remains an enticing investment opportunity in a market where it seems like it is almost the only one you can look for a profit, even if there’s an economic slowdown. This is due to the supply and demand dynamics we are experiencing right now.Central banks are hiking rates to kill – or slow – the demand side, which is yet another reason why companies and thus equities are struggling. This should, in theory, also push the prices of commodities down, but then let’s turn our heads towards the supply side.Here, especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the strict COVID-19 lockdowns in China, suppress the supply of many key commodities. This creates a dramatic imbalance between supply and demand, which means that even a global economic slowdown most likely wouldn’t bring it back to an equal footing.“If I had to pick one area to look for inspiration, it would be the metal industry. There’s a lot of amped up construction in China due to the lockdowns, which means that once they are lifted, the metal space could see a substantial increase in demand from them,” says Hansen.Queued up construction in China can push metal prices, which also could be a long play on the mining sector within equities."The equity market is probably the most difficult since the 2007-2009 financial crisis years due to a combined factor of persistently high inflation and equity valuation compression from higher interest rates. We believe that the world will be in a commodity super cycle and thus should be exposed to this through mining companies both short and long term. China's slowdown is just short-term noise. It changes nothing regarding mining companies over the coming years," says Peter Garnry, Head of Equity strategy.

Asian markets rally on positive Wall Street and China hopes S&P 500, Nasdaq And Dow Jones US markets closed out the week on another positive note after US data alleviated inflation fears and thus, future Fed tightening, and showed strength among US consumers still. Realistically, after such a positive week, it would have taken a lot to knock the FOMO gnomes of Wall Street off their path of bottom-picking nirvana. The S&P 500 rallied by 2.48%, while the Nasdaq leapt by an impressive 3.33%, with the Dow Jones climbed by 1.76%. The rally has continued in Asia, with Nasdaq futures 0.90% higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.40%, and Dow futures edging 0.10% higher. US OTC markets are closed for Memorial Day. End Of COVID Restrictions? Asia is also turning in a positive performance, following the impressive New York close, and boosted by hopes that China’s Beijing and Shanghai hubs are reopening from virus restrictions and a package of stimulus measures released by the Shanghai local government. Nikkei 225 And CSI 300 Japan’s Nikkei 225 has coat-tailed the Nasdaq 2.10% higher today, with South Korea’s Kospi gaining 1.25%, and Taipei rallying by 1.60%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is a more cautious 0.30% higher, with the CSI 300 rising by just 0.40%. The ever-optimistic Hong Kong, however, had leapt 2.50% higher, boosted by hopes of an Evergrande bond deal. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News Metals In regional markets, Singapore is up just 0.20%, while Kuala Lumpur has fallen 0.25%, and Jakarta is 0.60% lower. A Goldman Sachs report suggesting metals prices have peaked is likely weighing on all three markets, as risk sentiment swings back to more growth-stock orientated markets. Bangkok has gained 0.65%, while Manila has rallied by 1.25%. Australian markets have also liked what they have seen with Wall Street and China, the ASX 200 and All Ordinaries climbing by 1.25% today. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Russian Oil Friday’s New York close and Asia’s rally today should be enough to lift European equity markets this afternoon, although the still simmering EU import ban on Russian oil and Brent crude above USD 120.00 a barrel will temper bullish animal spirits. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Last week brought a rebound in stock markets, breaking a series of weeks of losses, along with a weakening USD and falling bond yields. The current one begins in a similar vein. Learn more on Conotoxia US Jobs Data What are the key events for financial markets and investors in the coming days? In the United States, the employment report may draw attention. In May, the US economy is expected by consensus to add 310,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.6 percent for the third consecutive month, remaining the lowest since February 2020. On the other hand, wages were expected to rise 0.4 percent, which is slightly higher expectations than the 0.3 percent increase in April. On an annual basis, however, it is expected to fall from 5.5 to 5.2 percent. Fed Members Speak Their Minds Several Fed officials will speak on monetary policy this week, and the market has already reduced the chances of US interest rate hikes. At present, investors seem to assume that they may amount to 2.5-2.75 percent in July 2023. As recently as at the beginning of the month, hikes were priced at 3.25-3.5 percent. Read next: Altcoins: Tezos (XTZ) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tezos Platform | FXMAG.COM Earnings - HP Stock And GameStop Stock Price May Fluctuate The earnings season is underway. Salesforce, Kirkland's, Ambarella, HP and GameStop are expected to announce quarterly results. So far, 97 percent of companies in the S&P 500 index have reported updated results, with 77 percent reporting an EPS surprise and 73 percent reporting a revenue beat, according to Factset data. Monetary Policy - Bank Of Canada (BoC) From a global monetary policy perspective, the Bank of Canada may raise its interest rate by 50 basis points, marking the third consecutive increase in rates in Canada. Also in focus: first-quarter GDP growth data for Canada. In the UK, on the other hand, final PMI estimates are likely to confirm a sharp slowdown in business activity growth in May amid intensifying inflationary pressures and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Eurozone Inflation - Germany, France, Italy, Spain In Europe, key Eurozone inflation reports will be released, including from Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The Eurozone annual inflation rate is expected to rise again in May, reaching a new record high of 7.7 percent, up from 7.4 percent in April. Unemployment figures will be published in the eurozone, as well as in Germany, Spain and Italy, while France, Italy, Switzerland and Turkey will report updated GDP for the first quarter. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Still improving risk sentiment sends US dollar lower The US dollar declined once again on Friday as improving risk sentiment continues to unwind the 2022 US dollar rally. That has spilt over into Asian markets today, with regional currencies booking some decent gains versus the greenback this morning. On Friday, the dollar index edged 0.12% lower to 101.64, losing another 0.13% to 101.50 in Asia. Support remains at 101.00, with resistance at 102.50. EUR/USD EUR/USD held steady on Friday, closing almost unchanged at 1.0735, with US dollar weakness being reflected in EMFX and the commonwealth currencies. It has gained 0.20% to 1.0755 in Asia, but overall, seems locked in a 1.0700 to 1.0800 range. Oil’s rally may temper single currency gains, with the multi-decade breakout line, today at 1.0830, still a formidable barrier. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM GBP/USD GBP/USD closed 0.20% higher at 1.2630 on Friday, adding another 0.14% to 1.2640 in Asia. GBP/USD looks set to trade in a noisy 1.2600 to 1.2700 range as the week gets underway. The government’s cost of living package may prompt faster BOE tightening, supporting the downside, while the economic slowdown continues to slow upside progress. USD/JPY USD/JPY is trading sideways, ranging each side of 127.00 as US yields trade in narrow ranges. That is likely to continue with US bond markets closed today. The chart suggests USD/JPY has further downside potential that could target 125.00. Only a move through trendline resistance at 127.80 changes the picture. AUD/USD & NZD/USD AUD/USD and NZD/USD continue to be driven entirely by swings in global risk sentiment. Another strong performance by Wall Street on Friday maintained that upward momentum and both AUD and NZD were prime beneficiaries. AUD/USD rallied by 0.85% to 0.7160, adding another 0.20% to 0.7175 today. It has resistance at 0.7260, and support at 0.7100. NZD/USD rose by 0.86% to 0.6536 on Friday, rising another 0.17% to 0.6547 today. Resistance nearby at 0.6570 opens a larger rally to 0.6650, with support at 0.6475. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Asian FX rode improving investor risk sentiment higher on Friday, moves reflected throughout the EM space. Gains were led by the Chinese yuan, Korean won, and New Taiwan dollar, all gaining around 0.70%, while even the beleaguered Malaysian ringgit out in a good show, USD/MYR falling to 4.3770. Both the Indonesian rupiah and the Malaysian ringgit should find further strength on higher oil prices, even though it increases their domestic subsidy bills. Oil’s strength is likely the reason the Indian rupee has remained unchanged from Friday through today. CNY, KRW and NTD are rallying strongly today, likely boosted by China’s reopening hopes. USD/CNY, USD/KRW, and USD/NTD have fallen by around 0.80% today. However, if oil prices continue to rise this week, the rally in energy-importing Asian currencies may run out of steam. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Brent crude rises above USD 120.00 The disconnect between energy prices and optimism in equity markets continues today in Asia. On Friday, oil prices surged once again, driven by an unrelenting squeeze on refined products, notably diesel and gasoline, globally, with the US driving season about to begin in earnest. Brent crude rose by 1.63% to USD 119.20 a barrel on Friday, rallying another 0.70% to USD 120.05 this morning. WTI rose by 0.85% to USD 115.10 a barrel on Friday, rallying another 0.83% higher to USD 116.05 in Asia today. Markets pricing in peak virus in Beijing and Shanghai are behind the rally in oil prices today, with a China reopening likely leading to increased oil consumption. Unlike recent times, markets seem unconcerned about oil moving back to March highs, emphasising how much pent-up risk-sentiment demand there appears to be out there. We can expect no solace from OPEC+ on production increases on Thursday. The grouping cannot pump to meet its present quotas as it is, and a 430,000 bpd increase is all we can expect. Additionally, the EU Russian oil import ban is still a work in progress and if it gets over the line this week, expect supplies to tighten again. As such, the risks are now increasing of a move towards the post-Ukraine highs we saw in February. Both Brent crude and WTI are at the top of my expected medium-term ranges at USD 120.00 and USD 115.00 respectively. A weekly close above these levels would be a major signal indicating more gains ahead. Brent crude’s next technical resistance is at USD 124.00 a barrel, and then USD 132.00, with support at USD 116.00. WTI has resistance nearby at USD 116.70 a barrel, with nothing afterwards until USD 127.00 a barrel. Support is at USD 115.00 and USD 113.00 a barrel. Gold trades sideways Gold seems determined to bore traders to death after another inconclusive overnight range-trading session. It finished Friday 0.13% lower at USD 1853.00 an ounce, before gaining 0.44% to USD 186.75 an ounce in Asia today. Gold’s price action continues to suggest caution, with the US dollar sell-off not translating to any meaningful gold strength. If global risk sentiment turns lower, gold could quickly follow. Gold has nearby support at USD 1840.00, followed by USD 1836.00 an ounce. Failure sees the possibility of a mini-capitulation by longs that could reach as far as USD 1780.00 an ounce. Gold has resistance here at USD 1862.00, ​ then USD 1870.00, followed by USD 1886.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

S&P 500 turned the corner, yields peaked for now, and dollar likewise. Risk-on sentiment is ruling the day, with value outperforming tech – but at least the latter is also recovering. Stocks though haven‘t turned the corner in earnest, no matter the gains they‘re still about to clock in. Enjoy the rally while it lasts (long entry is a matter of individual trade‘s risk reward ratio – more than a few good percent are still ahead before the fresh downleg strikes. Fed You can look forward for tomorrow‘s extensive analysis, where I‘ll examine the Fed and macroeconomics in the weeks and months ahead vs. the turnaround sequence discussed three weeks ago – unfolding like clockwork. Here‘s a quote from tomorrow‘s article: (…) I don‘t think we‘re looking at a fresh uptrend, there is still much stress (to be reflected in stock prices) in the consumer arena. VIX For now, the key question is the degree to which VIX calms down – would it be able to keep below 23-24 to extend the shelf life of this rally? And for how long would the lull in volatility last? I think the answer is a few short weeks, before it becomes obvious that the fundamentals haven‘t changed. The consumer remains in poor shape, inflation would remain stubbornly high (even as it had indeed peaked), and the credit default swaps for quite a few (consumer sensitive) companies are rising relentlessly, which isn‘t yet reflected in underlying stock prices. I‘m talking financials too – this broad stock market rally has more than a couple of percent higher to go before the weight pulls it back down, and earnings estimates get downgraded again. Stayed tuned for more, enjoy and profit along! Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Happy extended weekend. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

The New Zealand dollar continues to take advantage of US dollar weakness. NZD/USD posted sharp gains last week, climbing 2.01%. Will Business Confidence improve? The week kicks off with ANZ Business Confidence, which has been in deep-freeze for months. The indicator was almost unchanged at -42.0 in April, which means that close to half of New Zealand businesses expect economic conditions to worsen during the next 12 months. The government has eased Covid restrictions, which is good news for the business sector, in particular for services such as hospitality and recreation. The upcoming survey is likely to show that businesses continue to struggle with two main issues – surging inflation and shortages of materials and workers. Businesses have seen their operating costs, including wages, accelerate rapidly and this is forcing them to pass on higher costs. Inflation has hit 30-year highs and no ‘inflation peak’ appears in sight, despite aggressive rate hikes from the RBNZ. Perhaps as important, business expect CPI to remain high. Two-year expectations have risen to 3.29% and five-year expectations have risen to 2.42%, well above the RBNZ’s inflation target of 1%-3%. The RBNZ has repeatedly said that its hawkish policy is aimed at curbing both inflation and inflation expectations. Governor Orr said last week that it was crucial that inflation expectations remain “anchored” and that a situation where higher inflation expectations become persistent had to be avoided “at all costs”. Orr added that he expects the cash rate, which is currently at 2%, to rise to 4% in mid-2023. This means that the RBNZ will continue be aggressive and we can expect further 50-bps rate hikes, if the central bank feels that the economy is strong enough for aggressive rate therapy. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6475. Above, there is resistance at 0.6540 There is support at 0.6352 and 0.6287 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

German inflation continues to accelerate, keeping alive the European Central Bank's discussion on a possible 50bp rate hike in July Record-high inflation in Germany has had an impact on consumers' budgeting and financial planning   German headline inflation surged once again as the war in Ukraine pushed up energy and commodity prices, and inflationary pressure broadens. According to a first estimate based on the regional inflation data, German headline inflation came in at 7.9% year-on-year in May, up from 7.4% YoY in April. The HICP measure came in at 8.7% YoY, from 7.8% in April. Unless there is a sharp downward correction of energy prices in the months ahead, German headline inflation will continue to increase and only start to level off in late summer. Still more inflation in the pipeline We've stopped digging out illustrations of the times when inflation in Germany was at comparable levels. Let’s put it like this: most citizens and policymakers have hardly ever seen these kinds of inflation rates in their professional lives. Sure, the surge in headline inflation is still dominantly driven by energy and commodity prices. However, looking at available regional data, the pass-through of these higher prices to the broader economy is in full swing. In some regional states, food inflation was already at double-digit levels and prices for leisure activities, hospitality, and more general services have been accelerating in recent months. The inflation rate for these items is far above the European Central Bank's 2% target. In fact, in April only 17 out of the 94 main components of the German inflation basket had inflation rates of 2% or less. The only significant U-turn in the upward inflation trend was in packaged holidays. However, this was rather driven by the so-called Easter Bunny effect (the timing of the Easter break) and not so much by disinflationary trends. Consequently, any drop in core inflation on the back of lower packaged holidays inflation will be temporary. Looking ahead, the fact that monthly price increases are still far above their historic average (0.9% month-on-month in May compared with 0.2% in a ‘normal’ May) illustrates the high inflationary pipeline pressure. As much as we would like to see a levelling off in inflation rates, with the war in Ukraine and continued tension and upward pressure on energy, commodity and food prices, headline inflation in Germany will accelerate further in the coming months. We think that the pass-through to all kinds of sectors is still in full swing. Add to this the additional price mark-ups in the hospitality, culture and leisure sectors after the end of lockdowns and it is hard to see inflation coming down significantly any time soon. Against the backdrop of recent geopolitical events, we now expect German inflation to average at more than 8% this year with a chance that monthly inflation rates will enter double-digit territory in the summer. ECB 50bp rate hike not off the table The ECB has clearly passed the stage of discussing whether and even when policy rates should be increased. The only discussion seems to be on whether the ECB should start with a 25bp rate hike in July or 50bp. In this regard, it is quite remarkable that both ECB president Christine Lagarde and ECB chief economist Philip Lane have tried to take back control of this particular discussion. In an interview released this morning, Philip Lane definitely broke with the previous ECB communication strategy to never pre-commit. Instead, he spelled out the roadmap for normalising monetary policy, de facto announcing an the end of net asset purchases in early July, a 25bp rate hike at the ECB meeting of 21 July and another 25bp rate hike at the September meeting. There is nothing wrong with the content of his remarks as it is exactly what we have already been expecting the ECB to do. However, a de facto pre-announcement almost two months ahead of the 21 July meeting is remarkable, to say the least. In any case, as today’s German inflation numbers mark an upside surprise for many, the debate on the magnitude of the first hike, be it 25bp vs 50bp, is not entirely off the table. If core inflation in the eurozone continues accelerating in May and June, Lane and Lagarde could still regret their new pre-commitment. Read this article on THINK TagsMonetary policy Inflation Germany ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Those wishing to start a Forex brokerage business are increasingly turning to white label solutions. These solutions can either provide their brand of trading platforms or make changes to the standard platform. White label solutions are becoming an attractive proposition for smaller broker companies, allowing them access to a product that would be otherwise difficult and expensive to develop in-house. Benefits of white label brokerage One of the most significant advantages of white label brokerage software is its low cost. Using a pre-existing platform with little or no modifications can save broker companies money. This allows the brokers to have their unique product without employing developers themselves, reducing costs and allowing them to focus on other business areas. Another benefit is that the broker often has access to the platform's source code. This means changes can be made if necessary, allowing brokers to distinguish their products from others on the market. The ability to tailor a trading platform offers the brokers a competitive advantage over their competitors. Many people would prefer to work with a broker who stands out from others in some way rather than use one who offers little difference. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM A further benefit of white label Forex brokerage solutions is the complete scalability for different markets and languages. With most platforms being fully automated, it allows clients or developers easy integration into new markets with language translations, ensuring the product meets multi-jurisdictional regulations. Clients of white label brokerage platform solutions know that they will be receiving a complete and fully functional product. This guarantees that the platform will have all the features necessary to trade, and customers won't be disappointed with their product. Additional features can be added if required, allowing brokers to provide new updates as and when they see fit. Disadvantages of white label solutions  The downsides of a white label Forex broker often come down to how much control you want over your brand and its image. While some platforms might allow for almost total freedom when designing your trading interface, others will provide very few customization options and may be limited in terms of functionality too. Additionally, if you want any significant changes made, this could cost extra money. There are also disadvantages in security and technical support when using a third-party product for your trading platform. Making changes could prove difficult if you have poor coding skills, especially if no access is given to the source code. While customer service may not be an issue for some broker companies, others may prefer instant access to a technical team that understands their platform inside out. Another disadvantage is that there are limited options in terms of different platforms which might be used as a white label solution. As well as this, new updates will need to go through rigorous testing before they are rolled out to brokers and their clients. While this ensures quality, it can also add time to the process, meaning sometimes traders have to wait a little while before using the new features. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Finding a reliable platform that is suitable for your company may prove difficult. The cost involved in having a custom-built platform developed will ultimately be worth it if you plan on being in business for some time. However, smaller start-up businesses might find it more beneficial to access an off-the-shelf solution. Ultimately, if you want to get your trading firm up and running quickly, white label solutions are a big help. Access to a fully customizable platform and source code allows traders to have complete freedom when designing their interface. In addition, the product is scalable to different markets and languages, which means that clients or developers can integrate their operations into new locations with ease. Disadvantages include limited customization options in terms of design, lack of control over technical support, and waiting for an update before its publication. However, given the cost-effectiveness and time-saving benefits associated with using off-the-shelf solutions such as white label products, it could be worth considering these aspects while making your decision on which one would work best for you and your business needs.  Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Summary: Expectations for the ECB to raise interest rates grow. GBP doing well in the wake of HM Treasury’s Thursday announcement of the stimulus package. As China eases lockdowns, the AUD strengthens. Read next (COST) (Retail Stores) Costco Stock Beats Market Expectations  Euro still gaining on the US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. The current combination of a strong Euro and a weak US Dollar is giving room for the Euro to bounce back to a level almost equal to that of 5 weeks ago. The market expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates have been growing over the past few weeks, whilst the expectations for the US Dollar have weakened as market price out some of the Feds hawkish decisions. EUR/USD Price Chart Market sentiment toward the Pound Sterling remains strong Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bearish signals. On Tuesday, Eurostat is expected to release their estimate for May inflation, which could have an impact on the Euro. The move made late last week by HM treasury to implement a stimulus package to struggling households has the markets favouring the Pound Sterling over the EURO. EUR/GBP Price Chart Australian Dollar benefitting from the opening Chinese economy The Australian Dollar is performing well against the Pound Sterling amidst China continuing with the phased re-opening of the economy in the wake of its most recent Covid-19 lockdowns. It is well known that what is good for the Chinese economy is normally good for the Australian Dollar. If the global economic outlook continues to improve (especially in China), the AUD could outperform. GBP/AUD Price Chart AUD/USD reflecting mixed market signals The market is reflecting mixed market sentiment signals. The Australian Dollar is strengthening as the Chinese economy outlook seems positive in conjunction with the weakening US Dollar, giving the AUD a chance to strengthen against the USD. AUD/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com

Gold Price traded with upside on Monday as the US dollar continued to fade despite holiday-thinned trading conditions. XAUUSD was last changing hands near $1,860 and eyeing recent highs having found decent support at its 21 and 200 DMAs. Should market participants continue to pare Fed tightening bets, gold could reclaim $1,900, even if risk appetite also rebounds. Gold Price (XAU/USD) is trading with an upside bias in quiet, US holiday-thinned trade and eyeing a test of last week’s highs around $1,870 per troy ounce. At current levels around $1,860, XAUUSD is about 0.4% higher, having found support earlier in the session at the 21-Day Moving Average (at $1,849.25) and amid continued technical buying after spot prices found solid support at the 200 DMA (at $1,840) last week. US Economic Data Gold’s advances on Monday come despite a positive tone to global macro trade and are being driven by a continued weakening to fresh monthly lows in the US dollar. In wake of US Consumer Price Inflation data released earlier in the month and Core PCE inflation data released last week, market participants have become less worried about inflation in the US and, as a result, Fed tightening bets have seen a modest pullback (i.e. for H2 2022 and 2023). Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM US Bonds And US Dollar (USD) Helps XAUUSD US bond markets are closed on Monday, but price action in gold and USD markets suggests that yields will probably open the week lower, a continuation of the weakening trend that has, in tandem with the recent weakening of the US dollar, boosted XAUUSD by over 4.0% from sub-$1,790 mid-month lows. US data will be in focus this week with various tier one releases including the May ISM Manufacturing PMI survey and official May labour market report all out later in the week. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Inflation Analysts argued that should the trends of easing US inflation fears, easing Fed tightening bets and subsequently, more downside in US yields and the buck continue, that could be a bullish medium-term driver for gold, even if it also boosts risk appetite (i.e. US equities). With XAUUSD having found such strong support at its 21 and 200 DMAs, the outlook for further upside towards the 50 DMA near $1,900 looks good. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Oil prices jumped after EU leaders reached an agreement late Monday to ban 90% of Russian crude by the end of the year. U.S. crude futures up 2.81% to $118.29 (Contracts for July) Brent crude futures up 0.93% to $122.80 (Contracts for July) U.S. crude up 2.84% to $115.42 (Contracts for August) Brent up 1.17% to $118.98 (Contracts for August) Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

German inflation hit a fresh record high of 8.7% in May, above the 8.1% penciled in by analysts. The data gave a boost to the European Central Bank (ECB) hawks and helped the EURUSD extend gains to 1.0780. Crude oil extended rally as the European leaders finally announced their decision to partially ban the Russian oil. Can The EU Affect OPEC's Move? Bitcoin's Rally And people started asking, would the European decision to ban the Russian oil would impact the OPEC’s decision about production; would the OPEC nations pump more to replace the Russian oil for European exports? Elsewhere, the softish US yields help gold consolidate above 200-DMA, while other precious metals also gain, Bitcoin rallies above $31K and the US markets are back after a long-weekend break!   Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:25 German inflation hits record, revives ECB hawks 1:31 Europe announces to partially ban Russian oil, oil rallies 4:08 Go deeper: will EU decision affect OPEC strategy? 5:38 US LNG stocks extend rally 6:32 DAX, FTSE recover¨ 8:00 Precious metals update. Gold, platinum, palladium 9:07 Bitcoin rallies, but gains remain vulnerable Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News  

Asian markets mixed after the US holiday US markets were closed overnight, but European markets enjoyed a positive overnight session, grasping the baton from Asia. Equity markets have had some of the gloss removed thanks to hawkish ECB comments and higher than expected German inflation. Today in Asia, US futures are all over the place, raising a red flag on holiday-market liquidity and bored dentists in Minnesota trading from their studies to get away from the kids. S&P 500 futures are 0.15% higher, with Nasdaq futures falling by 0.60%, and Dow futures easing 0.20% lower. In Asia, the picture is equally mixed after this morning’s data releases showed signs of an incipient recovery in China but presented a very mixed picture elsewhere. Oil’s rally continues in Asia after the announcement of the partial EU oil ban on Russian oil. A headwind for energy-hungry Asia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is unchanged with the retail army lost with the Nasdaq to coattail. The Kospi is just 0.10% higher. Mainland China markets are rallying after less-worse PMIs and an easing of Shanghai restrictions. The Shanghai Composite has gained 0.70%, with the CSI 300 rallying by 1.05%. Hong Kong, meanwhile, absent US markets for direction, has added just 0.35%. Regionally, Singapore is 0.40% higher, with Taipei down 0.05%, and Kuala Lumpur easing by 0.10%. Jakarta is 0.25% higher post-GOTO’s first public quarterly result, while Bangkok is down 0.20%, and Manila has lost 0.45%. Australian markets are retracing some of yesterday’s gains, the ASX 200 falling 0.65%, while the All Ordinaries have lost 0.50%. The partial EU oil ban on Russian imports, and a mixed picture in Asia is likely to see European markets open slightly lower this afternoon. The turkey shoot known as the US open remains just that, it really depends on what mood they come back from holiday in, although the rise in US yields in Asia may give the bulls some pause for thought, as will hawkish comments from the Fed’s Waller overnight. The meeting between President Biden, Treasury Secretary Yellen, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell should be a non-event. President Biden will moan about his prospects in November’s mid-terms, Mr Powell will say that’s not his job, even if he hasn’t done that job very well up until now. The end. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Today’s Japanese data releases were a bit mixed. Together with improved labour market conditions and better consumer sentiment, consumption is likely to lead to a GDP rebound in the second quarter. But weak production suggests the rebound will be modest Retail sales in Japan have risen for two consecutive months -1.3% Industrial production %MoM, sa Lower than expected Industrial production dropped in April, the first fall in three months Production activity has been hit hard by ongoing global supply chain disruptions. April industrial production declined by -1.3% month-on-month, seasonally-adjusted (vs 0.3% in March) which is more than the market consensus of -0.2%. Among the largest declines, semiconductors (-7.1%), machineries (-2.7%), and automobiles (-3.0%) were down most notably. Meanwhile, shipments were unchanged compared to the previous month, with declines mostly concentrated in automobiles, semiconductors, and petrochemicals, mainly due to China's recent lockdowns. April IP was weaker than expected Source: CEIC Retail sales rise for two consecutive months Retail sales grew 0.8%MoM sa in April while March data was revised down to 1.7% (vs 2.0% previously). The reopening effect has supported consumption activity as apparel jumped 12.8% after declining in the previous three months, and general merchandise sales gained three months in a row. However, higher commodity prices appeared to partially suppress consumption. Fuel sales contracted -1.6% in April (vs -0.5% in March) while supermarket sales fell -1.2% in April (vs -0.6% in March). Retail sales have risen for the second month in a row Source: CEIC Improved labour conditions and better consumer sentiment signals a steady recovery in consumption Labour conditions in Japan improved in April. The jobless rate dropped to 2.5% (vs 2.6% which was the market consensus and the rate in March) while the labour participation rate continued to advance to 62.6% (vs 62.1% in March). In addition, the job-to-application ratio ticked up to 1.23 (vs 1.22 in March). Meanwhile, consumer sentiment appeared to make gradual progress thanks to an improved Covid-19 situation. The consumer confidence index rose to 34.1 (vs 33.8 market consensus) with all sub-indices improved. The overall livelihood index rebounded firmly – for the first time in five months – while income growth also increased. Labour conditions continued to improve Source: CEIC Bank of Japan looks to signs of wage growth We ought to be on the lookout for tighter labour market conditions leading to wage growth, which is what the Bank of Japan has been looking at to gauge a sustainable inflation trend. Today’s improved consumer sentiment on income and employment gives a positive signal for now. Read this article on THINK TagsUnemployment rate Retail sales Industrial Production Consumer confidence Bank of Japan Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Dollar stages corrective recovery on a quiet day Currency markets are quiet post the US holiday overnight, and that has allowed a modest short-covering US dollar rally to develop after US yields ticked higher in Asia. The dollar index has added 0.26% to 101.63 this morning, mid-range between support/resistance at 101.00 and 102.50. EUR/USD has given back most of its overnight gains, easing 0.28 to 1.0750 today. The overnight rise in oil prices, the EU Russian oil ban, and the tick higher in US yields are likely the cause of the retreat. EUR/USD is struggling to find the momentum to challenge resistance at 1.0800 and 1.0830, with support remaining at 1.0700. GBP/USD also faded ahead of resistance at 1.2700, falling 0.36% to 1.2610 this morning. That has brought support at 1.2600 back into play, with failure potentially extending losses to 1.2500. USD/JPY has seen an immediate reaction to firming bond yields overnight and this morning internationally. USD/JPY rose through resistance at 127.50 overnight, gaining 0.405 to 127.62. Today it has booked another 0.28% gain to 128.00. If nothing else, it highlights that the overriding driver of USD/JPY direction remains the US and to a lesser extent, European/Japan rate differentials. AUD/USD and NZD/USD posted modest gains overnight but have given all of those back as long-covering set in today and risk sentiment dipped. AUD/USD has faded ahead of 0.7200 resistance, falling 0.22% to 0.7180 today, with interim support at 0.7150. NZD/USD has fared worse, falling 0.37% to 0.6535, with resistance at 0.6570 holding overnight. Both currencies remain at the mercy of global swings in risk sentiment. USD/Asia is also rising today as the EU Russian oil ban and the rise in US yields have flowed through into US dollar strength. That said, the losses today have only partially retraced the recent gains by CNY, CNH, KRW, NTD and MYR, and as such I am not reading too much into the price action given it is a quiet day. At this stage, it looks corrective, and we will have to wait until the US session for more direction. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Europe’s ban on Russian oil sends black gold higher The announcement that a partial EU ban on Russian oil imports has made it over the finish line sent oil prices higher overnight. Recovering PMI data from China today, and by default recovering energy consumption, has seen the rally continue in Asia. The price action by oil this past week has been ominous, suggesting that supplies of refined products is getting worse, and not better. The EU oil ban on Russia further complicates that picture and I am wondering how long markets can continue bottom-fishing elsewhere while ignoring oil’s price rise. Overnight, Brent crude rose by 2.05% to USD 121.65 a barrel, and today, it has rallied another 1.20% to USD 123.10. WTI rallied by 2.20% to USD 177.65 overnight, gaining another 0.80% to USD 118.55 in Asia today. Brent crude is now a hair’s breadth away from resistance at USD 123.80, after which there is no resistance on the charts until USD 131.60 a barrel. Support lies at USD 116.00 a barrel. WTI has taken out resistance at USD 116.70 a barrel, which now becomes support, followed by USD 116.00. The USD 120.00 region will provide some psychological, and possibly option-related resistance, but there is now nothing on the charts until USD 126.80 barrel. Markets will find no solace from this week’s OPEC+ production meeting, as outlined in yesterday’s note. If China is reopening, and Europe is limiting Russian oil, there is only one obvious direction from here, for too long, ignored by markets. Only a surprise Iran deal, unlikely as they are seizing tankers at the moment, or a capitulation to Venezuela’s autocratic government, could change the supply/demand dynamic. Neither would alleviate the squeeze in refined products underpinning the rally. Gold trades sideways Gold seems determined to bore traders to death after another inconclusive overnight range-trading session. It probed resistance around USD 1860.00 an ounce overnight but retreated to finish just 0.14% higher at USD 1855.80 an ounce, marking another inconclusive session. Ominously, gold has fallen in Asia at the first sign of US Dollar strength, Gold has eased by 0.13% to USD 1853.50 an ounce. ​ Gold’s price action continues to suggest caution, with the US dollar sell-off not translating to any meaningful gold strength. If global risk sentiment turns lower, gold could quickly follow. Gold has nearby support at USD 1840.00, followed by USD 1836.00 an ounce. Failure sees the possibility of a mini-capitulation by longs that could reach as far as USD 1780.00 an ounce. Gold has resistance here at USD 1862.00, then USD 1870.00, followed by USD 1886.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The New Zealand dollar rally has fizzled out on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6517, down 0.63% on the day. Business Confidence slides New Zealand’s business sector remains deeply pessimistic about the economy. ANZ Business Confidence has been mired in negative territory for close to a year and the May reading fell to -55.6, down sharply from -42.0 in April. This means that more than half of New Zealand businesses expect economic conditions to worsen during the next 12 months. There weren’t any surprises in the ANZ survey, with businesses noting that their two biggest problems are inflation and cost pressures. Inflation continues to be broad-based, and inflation expectations remain intense. One-year inflation expectations rose to 6.2%, much higher than the RBNZ’s inflation target of 1%-3%. The RBNZ is very concerned about inflation expectations, which can manifest into actual inflation. Governor Orr said last week that it was crucial that inflation expectations remain “anchored” and that a situation where higher inflation expectations become persistent had to be avoided “at all costs”. The RBNZ finds itself in the middle of its aggressive rate-tightening cycle. The Bank raised the cash rate to 2.0% last week, up from 1.50%. Governor Orr has stated that he is looking to raise rates to 4% by mid-2023, which means that investors can expect plenty of tightening, which could mean additional 50-bps hikes. The RBNZ’s chief economist, Paul Conway, has acknowledged that a soft landing amidst aggressive rate hikes is “difficult to engineer” but said the economy was strong enough to handle a downturn due to the strong labour market. Conway added that 75-bps hikes were not being considered by the central bank. NZD/USD Technical 0.6492 is under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 0.6435 There is resistance at 0.6593 and 0.6650   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Golf Brand Callaway joins LinksDAO as equity investor. Free-to-mint Goblintown NFT collection is capturing millions in sales. ‘UFC x Gian Galang’ NFT collection available exclusively on Crypto.com NFT. Key Takeaways Non-fungible token (NFT) country club LinksDAO has brought Callaway Golf Company in on its quest to own and operate an actual golf course. Callaway is one of the largest golf equipment manufacturers and owner of driving-range game Topgolf. Mysterious free-to-mint Goblintown NFT collection is capturing millions in sales. The NFT project, consisting of 9,999 goblins, has recorded US$22.85 million in sales this week, surpassing Otherdeed’s US$20.73 million.  The Ultimate Fighting Championship presented the first-ever artist collaboration—the ‘UFC x Gian Galang’ collection. The debut collection, featuring Israel Adesanya, Valentina Shevchenko, and Conor McGregor, will be dropped exclusively on Crypto.com until 2 June. LooksRare recorded -11% and -33% decreases in sales and transactions, respectively. OpenSea‘s sales volume dropped by -15%, while its transaction count rose +17%. Crypto.com NFT in the Spotlight Sheepfarm in Meta-land: a P2E project built on the Klaytn network. It allows players to own metaverse pastures and run their own farm, from which they can profit by raising sheep. A total of 99 Aurora Boxes are being dropped on 1 June, each containing a redeemable NFT (redemption period will end on 1 July 2022). Crypto Ciber Pirates #3: the third and last drop of the “Crypto Ciber Pirates” collection, which includes headdresses and tattoos and will be launched on Tuesday, 7 June. Highlights NBA star Ben Simmons buys Otherdeed #19191 for 50 ETH Nigeria’s NFT marketplace Ayoken secures $1.4M to expand venture Prada joining top luxury brands in Web3 with Ethereum NFTs EuroLeague basketball dives deeper into Web3 with video NFTs Vitalik Buterin presents future of Ethereum and NFTs: introducing Soulbound tokens Moonbirds NFTs drained in US$1.5M phishing scam Thomas Edison inventions to become NFT collection ‘NFL Rivals’ – the upcoming American football NFT game How FanTiger plans to shake up the music industry through NFTs Hacker tastes own medicine as community gets back stolen NFTs Chinese stock image agency VCG tests NFT marketplace Aussie ‘Boy & Bear’ launch NFTs in collaboration with Amex  OpenSea redesigns parts of its NFT store as sales continue to slump Transaction Volume Benchmark     Top Collectibles     The following chart shows selected top NFTs and their historical floor prices. Upcoming NFT Sales The following table shows the top upcoming NFT sales and a sample of their art. Project Name Sale Date Price Items Market Cap  Sample Martizens 15 June 2022 2.50 (ETH) 10,000 25,000 (ETH) Chilliens 23 June 2022 0.50 (SOL) 5,000 2,500 (SOL) Miningverse NFT 2 July 2022 0.25 (ETH) 10,000 2,500 (ETH) Naked Panda Crew 8 June 2022 1.80 (SOL) 3,888 6,998 (SOL) Pepe Frens 10 June 2022 200.00 (CRO) 750 150,000 (CRO) * Sources: Rarity Tools, Crypto.com Top Artists The following table shows selected top artists (by sales volume on each platform) and a sample of their art. Platform Artist Sales Volume (USD) Sample Crypto.com NFT Loaded Lions $334,800 Magic Eden Trippin’ Ape Tribe $7,470,426 OpenSea goblintown.wtf $22,972,950 Tags CRYPTO CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTO.COM RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES MARKET NFT UPDATE Source: crypto.com

TL;DR It doesn’t make much sense to lend money for free. If Alice wants to borrow $10,000 from Bob, Bob will need a financial incentive to loan it to her. That incentive comes in the form of interest – a kind of fee that gets added on top of the amount Alice borrows. Interest rates profoundly impact the broader economy, as raising or lowering them greatly affects people’s behavior. Broadly speaking: Higher interest rates make it attractive to save money because banks pay you more for storing your money with them. It’s less attractive to borrow money because you need to pay higher amounts on the credit you take out. Lower interest rates make it attractive to borrow and spend money – your money doesn’t make much by sitting idle. What’s more, you don’t need to pay huge amounts on top of what you borrow. Learn more on Binance.com Introduction As we’ve seen in How Does the Economy Work?, credit plays a vital role in the global economy. In essence, it’s a lubricant for financial transactions – individuals can leverage capital that they don’t have available and repay it at a later date. Businesses can use credit to purchase resources, use those resources to turn a profit, then pay the lender. A consumer can take out a loan to purchase goods, then return the loan in smaller increments over time. Of course, there needs to be a financial incentive for a lender to offer credit in the first place. Often, they’ll charge interest. In this article, we’ll take a dive into interest rates and how they work.   What is an interest rate? Interest is a payment owed to a lender by a borrower. If Alice borrows money from Bob, Bob might say you can have this $10,000, but it comes with 5% interest. What that means is that Alice will need to pay back the original $10,000 (the principal) plus 5% of that sum by the end of the period. Her total repayment to Bob is, therefore, $10,500. So, an interest rate is a percentage of interest owed per period. If it’s 5% per year, then Alice would owe $10,500 in the first year. From there, you might have: a simple interest rate – subsequent years incur 5% of the principal or  a compounded interest rate – 5% of the $10,500 in the first year, then 5% of $10,500 + $525 = $11,025 in the second year, and so on.   Why are interest rates important? Unless you transact exclusively in cryptocurrencies, cash, and gold coins, interest rates affect you, like most others. Even if you somehow found a way to pay for everything in Dogecoin, you’d still feel their effects because of their significance within the economy. Take a commercial bank – their whole business model (fractional reserve banking) revolves around borrowing and lending money. When you deposit money, you’re acting as a lender. You receive interest from the bank because they lend your funds to other people. In contrast, when you borrow money, you pay interest to the bank. Commercial banks don’t have much flexibility when it comes to setting the interest rates – that’s up to entities called central banks. Think of the US Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China, or the Bank of England. Their job is to tinker with the economy to keep it healthy. One function they perform to these ends is raising or lowering interest rates. Think about it: if interest rates are high, then you’ll receive more interest for loaning your money. On the flip side, it’ll be more expensive for you to borrow, since you’ll owe more. Conversely, it isn’t very profitable to lend when interest rates are low, but it becomes attractive to borrow. Ultimately, these measures control the behavior of consumers. Lowering interest rates is generally done to stimulate spending in times when it has slowed, as it encourages individuals and businesses to borrow. Then, with more credit available, they’ll hopefully go and spend it. Lowering interest rates might be a good short-term move to rejuvenate the economy, but it also causes inflation. There’s more credit available, but the amount of resources remains the same. In other words, the demand for goods increases, but the supply doesn’t. Naturally, prices begin to rise until an equilibrium is reached. At that point, high interest rates can serve as a countermeasure. Setting them high cuts the amount of circulating credit, since everyone begins to repay their debts. Because banks offer generous rates at this stage, individuals will instead save their money to earn interest. With less demand for goods, inflation decreases – but economic growth slows.   ➟ Looking to get started with cryptocurrency? Buy Bitcoin on Binance!   What is a negative interest rate? Often, economists and pundits speak of negative interest rates. As you can imagine, these are sub-zero rates that require you to pay to lend money – or even to store it at a bank. By extension, it makes it costly for banks to lend. Indeed, it even makes it costly to save. This may seem like an insane concept. After all, the lender is the one assuming the risk that the borrower may not repay the loan. Why should they pay?  This is perhaps why negative interest rates are something of a last resort to fix struggling economies. The idea comes from a fear that individuals may prefer to hold onto their money during an economic downturn, preferring to wait until it recovers to engage in any economic activity.  When rates are negative, this behavior doesn’t make sense – borrowing and spending appear to be the most sensible choices. This is why negative interest rates are considered to be a valid measure by some, under extraordinary economic conditions.   Closing thoughts On the surface, interest rates appear to be a relatively straightforward concept to grasp.  Nevertheless, they’re an integral part of modern economies – as we’ve seen, adjusting them can fundamentally alter the behavior of individuals and businesses. This is why central banks take such a proactive role in using them to keep nations’ economies on track. Do you have more questions about interest rates and the economy? Check out our Q&A platform, Ask Academy, where the Binance community will answer your questions.

The Australian dollar is in calm waters this week, as AUD/USD trades quietly just below the 0.73 level. GDP slows to 0.8% Australia’s Q1 GDP slowed to 0.8% QoQ, after a massive 3.6% QoQ gain in Q4 of 2021. Investors were braced for a softer release after the impressive Q4 surge, and the Q1 reading actually outperformed, beating the estimate of 0.5%. This has resulted in a muted response to GDP, with the Aussie edging slightly higher. The whipsaw movement in GDP makes it difficult to predict the underlying strength of the economy. As far as the RBA is concerned, the respectable growth in Q1, which translates into 3.2% annualized growth, doesn’t interfere with its rate-tightening plans. Monetary policy has not focused all that much on GDP, with the RBA concentrating on the labour market, wage growth and inflation. The RBA holds its meeting next week, and is likely to tighten by another 25-bps, which would bring the cash rate to a (still low) 0.60%. Australia’s current account contracted to AUD 7.5 billion in the first quarter, down sharply from AUD 13.2 billion in Q4 of 2021. The decline was a strong increase in imports, which outstripped exports. This is consistent with strong retail sales, as consumers continue to spend in the follow-up to the removal of Covid restrictions. In the US, the Fed commenced quantitative tightening this week and the Fed continues to send out hawkish messages. Fed Governor Christopher Waller urged the Fed to continue its rate hikes and said that he supported raising rates above the “neutral level”, which is not supportive or restrictive for growth. The Fed estimates the neutral level around 2.5%, which leaves plenty of room for further hikes. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 50-bps hikes in June and July, followed by a pause in September. AUD/USD Technical 0.7207 is under pressure in resistance. Above, there is resistance at 0.7252 There is support at 0.7121 and 0.7076 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

WTI crude oil futures rose more than 1.5 percent on Wednesday to over $116.5 a barrel, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains. The EU's decision to partially ban Russian oil sales and China's reopening after the lockdown may more than offset reports that OPEC may suspend Russia from the production agreement. Reports emerged yesterday that some producers are considering suspending Russia's participation in the OPEC+ production agreement, which could pave the way for other producers to pump more oil to markets, and that some Gulf members are planning to increase production over the next few months. Investors await weekly US crude inventories data, with markets expecting US crude inventories to have fallen last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose. Learn more on Conotoxia The price of crude oil in global markets appears to be fluctuating widely. Yesterday, three-month peaks were established, with a barrel of WTI already costing over $118. Later in the day, prices sharply turned back below $113. As a result, oil price volatility may still remain relatively high. Meanwhile, in the real economy, this could mean high fuel prices. We are feeling this in Poland, but Americans are also feeling it. The price of gasoline there has soared to its highest level ever at USD 4.2 per gallon.More expensive fuels are one of the main components of rising consumer inflation, and at the same time a factor for decreasing demand in other categories. The more we spend on fuel because we need to get to work, for example, the less we spend in terms of unnecessary needs, recreation or entertainment. This, in turn, is a ready recipe for an economic slowdown, which the financial markets seem to have been pricing for quite some time now. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

GGPI stock is still flat around the $10 cash level. SPAC stocks hold $10 in cash to return in the event of a failed deal. GGPI is due to take EV maker Polestar public. SPAC stocks are not what they used to be, and certainly a prime example of that is Gores Guggenheim (GGPI). While it did receive some meme-like attention in the past, it never soared to the heights of other more notable SPACs such as Lucid (LCID) and Virgin Galactic (SPCE). Perhaps the lack of visibility in the US was a contributing factor, but regardless 2022 has not been kind to SPAC stocks. All have been tarred with the same negative outlook. Perhaps harsh on GGPI, but considering I am long, I do have some confirmation bias. GGPI stock news June 22 was recently announced as the date when GGPI holders will get to vote on approval of the merger deal to take Polestar public via SPAC. GGPI holders can vote in advance of June 22. As a brief overview, Polestar is an electric vehicle manufacturer owned by Volvo and Volvo's parent Geely. My investment thesis is based on the fact that Polestar will piggyback on Volvo's manufacturing and service networks. This will eliminate the need for large investments and capex. It will also mean a quick route to market for Polestar. Also one of the main reasons for my continued investment has been the backstop at $10. SPACs are required to hold cash to the tune of $10 per share to return to shareholders in the event the deal does not complete, so for now there is little downside. However, the EV sector has been facing headwinds from supply chain issues, inflation and lockdowns in China. Polestar recently reduced its delivery guidance for 2022 from 65,000 to 50,000. In April Hertz announced it has placed a major order with Polestar for electric vehicles. The car hire company ordered 65,000 vehicles over five years. Hertz hopes to have Polestar vehicles available this spring in Europe and later in the year in the US. GGPI stock chart There is not a huge amount of new information to see here. $10 is support, but the stock is trending gradually lower and the death cross looks imminent. This is not exactly comforting to my long thesis, but this chart is early stage and is not showing significant trends or levels just yet. So we live in hope!

While our base case is that the Bank of Canada will hike by another 50bp today, the strong macro picture means that a 75bp move cannot be excluded. Elsewhere, data resilience and higher yields should lay the basis for a re-strengtheining of the dollar, and the contrast with a worsening growth picture in Europe may send EUR/USD back to 1.05 in June Source: Shutterstock   Thursday 2 June and Friday 3 June are national holidays in the UK. We will resume the publication of the FX Daily on Monday 6 June. USD: Finding fresh support The dollar has continued to find some support this morning, benefiting from a general sell-off in the bond market, the impact of the EU oil embargo on Russia, and better-than-expected US data (consumer confidence yesterday was a case in point). The past few days seem to have conveyed the message that the Fed’s tightening cycle is based on a sturdier growth story than Europe's (especially after the Russian oil embargo) and the speculation around a September Fed pause is being kept at bay for now. Ultimately, we think all this is laying the basis for a period of gradual re-strengthening in the dollar. Today, data will remain in focus in the US, as the ISM manufacturing and JOLTS job openings for May are released. On the Fed side, John Williams and the arch-hawk James Bullard are both scheduled to speak today, and markets will also keep an eye on regional trends emerging from the Fed’s Beige Book released this evening. All in all, we expect the dollar to find some consolidation and possibly inch higher against most G10 peers for the rest of the week, with the weak bond environment offering a short-term supporting driver (the yen is set to remain the main victim here) and US data - our economist expects another solid US payrolls reading on Friday - still supporting the Fed tightening story and offering a longer-term bullish USD argument. Some stabilisation in global sentiment may allow high-beta currencies – and especially oil-sensitive ones like Canada's dollar and Norway's krone - to find a floor, while other European currencies may remain on the back foot due to a worsening growth outlook in the region. DXY may advance to the 103.00 area in the run-up to the 15 June FOMC meeting. EUR: On track for a return to 1.05 EUR/USD is re-testing the 1.0700 support this morning after a marginal recovery late yesterday proved very temporary. Indeed, the common currency is discounting the re-assessment of the European economic outlook after the EU announced a ban on Russian oil. That news came in conjunction with evidence that inflationary pressures in the eurozone are still not easing, as eurozone-wide CPI figures for May jumped to 8.1% while the core rate advanced to 3.8% year-on-year. While high inflation is keeping the ECB tightening expectations supported, the euro – which is already embedding a good deal of monetary tightening – is struggling to find any solid bullish driver at the moment. In our view, this was a matter of time and we continue to target a return to the 1.0500 area in EUR/USD by the end of this month. Elsewhere in Europe, the Hungarian central bank raised its base rate by 50bp yesterday in line with market expectations, but didn't meet all expectations, including ours. Even the almost historically weak forint did not persuade the central bank to make a bolder move. We did get assurances that monetary policy tightening will continue, but at a slower pace regardless of market or economic conditions. Although the central bank tried to be as hawkish as possible in its communication, it was not enough for the market to reverse the forint's direction. The forint continues to be our least preferred currency at the moment, but on the other hand, still has the most potential to strengthen in the region. We see EUR/HUF around 390 in the short run with a possible quick move to 380 should one of the external factors (war, rule-of-law debate, etc.) show early signs of improvement, reducing the risk premium. GBP: Some weakness (but not a collapse) ahead The pound seems to have been caught in the crossfire of the EU-Russia oil embargo story, largely following other European currencies (except for NOK) lower. This has meant that EUR/GBP has remained tied to the 0.8500 level, which appears to be an anchor for the short term. Given a deteriorating growth outlook in the UK, we expect some GBP weakness ahead and see a move to 0.8600 in the coming weeks as likely. However, we do not see a sterling downtrend morphing into a collapse.   With UK markets closed for two days, expect reduced GBP volatility into the weekend. CAD: We expect 50bp by the BoC today, but 75bp is possible The Bank of Canada is set to raise interest rates for a third consecutive meeting today, and the Bank’s recent communication has strongly suggested we’ll see another 50bp hike. As discussed in our BoC preview, 50bp is also our base case scenario for today, given the strong economy (and an outlook helped by high commodity prices) and jobs market, as well as elevated inflation. Against such a macroeconomic backdrop, we don’t exclude a 75bp move: markets seem to attach a relatively high probability to this scenario given that 70bp are priced in ahead of today’s meeting. As we see a 50bp hike as more likely, there are some downside risks for CAD today, as markets may have to price some 10-20bp out of the CAD swap curve. That said, we think that the BoC will reiterate a very strong commitment to fighting inflation and allow markets to consolidate their bets on at least another 50bp hike in July and a terminal rate around 3.0%. Ultimately, this should put a floor under the loonie, which has been displaying some resilience against the USD rebound, and may not depreciate beyond the 1.2700-1.2750 area even if the 75bp bets have to be scaled back today. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Currencies Australia Trade Balance data fails to lift AUD/USD AUD/USD remains pressured around 0.7162 on early Thursday in Asia despite Australia's Trade Balance for April released strong figures. Australia's Trade Balance printed at 10,495M versus the forecasted 9,300M. The downward pressure may be related to concerns on faster Fed rate hikes following recent solid US data and hawkish statements from the Fed. News on China as well as the US NFP this Friday may also weigh on the currency pair. Commodities Oil prices dropped amid expectations on OPEC+ policy Oil prices dropped today, ahead of a key producers meeting later in the day, with expectations of a boost in oil production by Saudi Arabia in response to urging by the United States.Brent crude down 1.8%, at $114.21U.S. (WTI) crude down 2.0%, to $113.01

Be[in]Crypto brings you an overview of this week’s price movements for bitcoin (BTC), gold, and our stock pick, GameStop.     BTC While an improvement over the prior two weeks, bitcoin has been struggling to maintain a $30,000 baseline. Trading just below $29,000 on May 19, BTC rose above $30,000 the next day, but swiftly returned below. Over the next two days it trickled upward, before accelerating up to $30,000 by May 24. Hitting resistance again, it dropped back down to $29,000 and failed to recover over the next few days, eventually slipping further down to $28,250 by May 27. While it rose a bit over the following days, BTC spiked on May 30, reaching $32,000 by May 31. Once again, BTC plummeted from there to $29,000 by June 2 and is now trading around $30,000.     Bitcoin’s rise to $32,000 was a result of markets responding to the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in China, in addition to the possibility that the Federal Reserve could loosen its hawkish stance later this year. “Bitcoin’s price action today is not entirely surprising,” said Joe DiPasquale, the CEO of crypto fund manager BitBull. “Not only is it facing pressure from traditional markets, it has also been struggling to breach the resistance zone between $31K-$32K, resulting in a breakdown from the range it set over the weekend.” GOLD The gold price has fared well over the past two weeks. Trading around $1,810 on May 19, it then shot up to $1,845 later that day, before rising even further to $1,865 by May 23. While sinking a bit from there, gold rose a bit higher by May 24 before sinking a bit back to $1,845. Over the next few days, gold reached $1,855, then dropped down further to $1,830 by June 1. However, over the past day, it has surged and is now trading around $1,865.  Gold prices rose yesterday bolstered by a dip in the dollar and data showing U.S. private payrolls rose less than expected last month. “[The job data] is really raising the recession concerns that have been brewing in the market and supporting gold,” said Ryan McKay, commodity strategist at TD Securities. According to ADP National Employment Report data, private payrolls rose by 128,000 jobs last month against a forecast for an increase of 300,000 jobs. GME GameStop shares have trickled down over the past two month, but have surged over the past week. At the beginning of April, GME dropped from $190, and had fallen to $140 by April 18. Despite a brief recovery, it continued to trickle down, hitting $115 by May 1. While maintaining around $120 the next few days, it continued to fall and hit $80 by May 11. It then shot up the next day to nearly $110 and traded between $100 and $90 until May 25. From there it shot up to nearly $150 on May 26, and while it has fallen a bit since then, it is currently trading around $135. During its latest financial results, GameStop reported sales of $1.378 billion, up from $1.277 billion during the same period last year. The company said that new and expanded brand relationships have helped boost sales, in what is likely a reference to its crypto efforts. CEO Matt Furlong said in the earnings call: “We firmly believe that digital assets are core to the future of gaming,” giving a clear indication that the company is going to double down on its digital assets strategy. GameStop will release its highly anticipated NFT marketplace in the second quarter of the year, which should inject a lot of life into the company’s business, having seen a resurgence since last year’s stock incident.  Disclaimer All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.   Source: BeInCrypto

US dollar eyes nonfarm payrolls There was a wax on, wax off feel to currency markets overnight. Soft ADP Employment data spurring a risk-on rally across asset classes as the Fed hiking outlook was tempered. The US dollar staged a broad retreat, unwinding all its gains from the day before in the major space except for USD/JPY. Asian market volatility is being dampened by holidays across the region today, including mainland China and Hong Kong, and the UK later today.  US dollar loses all of its previous gains - MarketPulseMarketPulse The dollar index tumbled by 0.78% to 101.75 overnight, an exact reversal of the rally from the day before. It is unmoved in Asia and support/resistance lies at 101.40 and 102.70. Its fate will be decided by this evening’s US Non-Farm Payrolls.   EUR/USD reversed all its previous day’s losses, rising 0.91% to 1.0750 where it remains in Asia. Resistance between 1.0770 and 1.0830 remains a formidable barrier, with support at 1.0650. Sterling reversed all its previous day’s losses, rising 0.75% to 1.2575 where it remains in Asia. It has support/resistance at 1.2460 and 1.2670. USD/JPY was almost unchanged at 129.85 as US bond yields barely moved. It remains unchanged in Asia. It has support/resistance at 129.00 and 131.30. Their fate will be decided by this evening’s US Non-Farm Payrolls.   AUD/USD staged a bullish outside reversal day overnight, making a new low before closing higher than the high of the day before, thanks to the broad-based risk-on rally after the US data. It leapt 1.27% higher to 0.7260 overnight where it remains today. AUD/USD has support at 0.7150, and the overnight rally took it above its 50/100/200-day moving averages (DMAs) between 0.7230 and 0.7255 as well. A soft Non-Farm print tonight could see AUD/USD rise to test 0.7350, with a weekly close at these levels being a bullish signal technically. Its fate will be decided by this evening’s US Non-Farm Payrolls.   Asian FX currencies booked modest gains overnight, with the rise in oil prices tempering the fast money inflows. Both the Malaysian ringgit and Philippine peso actually fell overnight, a result I suspect, of rising subsidy bills as oil prices climb higher. The Indonesian rupiah has rallied 0.70% to 14,420.00 today, while the KRW and MYR have risen by 0.10%. With a swathe of holidays across the region today, and no PBOC USD/CNY fixing, Asian markets look content to watch from the sidelines as we head into US data this evening and the weekend. Their fate will be decided by this evening’s US Non-Farm Payrolls. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. https://www.marketpulse.com/20220603/us-dollar-loses-all-of-its-previous-gains/

PLTR stock ended Thursday up 9.9% at $9.30. Palantir stock fell almost 17% in May due to dismal Q1 results. A recent contract with US Space Systems Command adds $54 million in revenue. Palantir (PLTR) stock experienced a welcome reprieve from May's glum share price descent on Thursday with the big data company's share price closing up 9.9% at $9.30. The rally appeared on account of Palantir securing a follow-on contract with the US Space Systems Command (SSC) worth $53.9 million. Shares have retreated 1.3% in Friday's premarket to $9.18. Palantir Stock News: US government contracts just keep on coming Investors on Thursday decided to put May's disgraceful 16.5% slide behind them as Palantir announced a nine-month continuation contract with the SSC's Battle Management Command, Control and Communications division (BMC3) agreeing to continue last year's $121.5 million contract through March 2023. The nine-month contract for nearly $54 million demonstrates how much big US government agencies are interested in continuing their expensive contractual relationships with Palantir. This constant barrage of government contracts is placing Palantir in league with the largest US defense contractors. Palantir said the contract extension "ensures the continuous delivery of Palantir’s data and decisions platform to support national security objectives." The company provides institutions with a wide variety of data systems in specialized and personalized software as a service (SaaS) platform. The current contract will aid "mission areas within the Air Force, Space Force, and NORAD-NORTHCOM to integrate, clean, share, and leverage data to help make decisions on personnel management, strategic and operational planning, cross-space situational awareness, and collaboration across combatant commands", according to a statement from management. Palantir stock market spike was helped by a continuation of the current bear market rally that saw all three major indices move substantially higher. Palantir Stock Forecast: $10 is the price to beat Palantir stock bulls must be quite excited with the near 10% move on Thursday, but resistance at $10 looms ever closer. PLTR stock has been in a parallel descending price channel since October of 2021. Breaking through $10 on the daily chart below would upend that seven-month tyranny and give bulls a shot at an extended rally. Breaking through the target would give longs a shot at the $14.85 high from April 5. A sign that this may be in the cards is that the 9-day moving average just caught up with the 21-day moving average on Thursday. Where the two moving averages crossed – $8.36 – might now provide some support. If not, then PLTR could sell off to the May 12 low at $6.45 in the event of a broad market downturn. With Jamie Dimon and some other influential bankers and CEOs predicting a bad turn in the second half of the year, this remains a real possibility. PLTR stock still deserves a buy, however, for the moment if it breaks the $10 resistance level. PLTR daily chart

US dollar pares gains from NFP report Friday’s higher Non-Farm Payroll data saw the US dollar reverse much of its losses from Thursday, characterising a very choppy back-and-forth week last week. The dollar index rose by 0.40% to 1.0217, leaving the index slightly higher for the week. Notably, the rally was not enough to lift the index above its 102.35 pivot point, suggesting that the downside remains the path of least resistance still. Support/resistance lies at 101.30 and 102.70. In Asia, the China reopening trade has pushed the index slightly lower to 102.11.  US dollar eases lower in Asia - MarketPulseMarketPulse EUR/USD fell only slightly by 0.27% to 1.0720 on Friday post-data, where it remains in Asia. ​ Resistance between 1.0770 and 1.0830 remains a formidable barrier, with support at 1.0650. However, the single currency continues to show resilience at these levels, and resistance could be seriously tested if China’s reopening trade continues to support risk sentiment. Volumes will be impacted by European holidays today.   Sterling tumbled by 0.70% to 1.2490 on Friday in yet another whipsaw session. It remains there in Asia today. It has support/resistance at 1.2460 and 1.2670. A UK leadership challenge this week may serve to limit gains but a clean break of 1.2670 opens a potentially larger rally to 1.2800 and 1.3000, while the failure of 1.2460 could see sterling fall to 1.2400.   USD/JPY rose 0.73% to 130.85 on Friday, accounting for most of the dollar index gains post US data as US bond yields firmed slightly. USD/JPY has edged 0.15% lower to 130.65 today despite dovish BOJ comments, but the US/Japan rate differential should continue to support the downside unless US yields suddenly fall sharply. It has support at 129.00 and resistance at 131.00, a double top, and 131.30.   AUD/USD fell post US data as risk sentiment turned south. It finished 0.80% lower at 0.7205, easing another 0.20% to 0.7195 in Asia. AUD/USD has nearby support at 0.7180, an ascending one-month trendline, with resistance between its 50/100/200-day moving averages (DMAs) between 0.7225 and 0.7255. RBA hiking concerns ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting look set to limit gains in the short term.   USD/Asia moved higher on Friday on firm US data, with the Korean won, New Taiwan dollar, Singapore dollar, and India rupee the main losers, being favourites by fast-money to express risk sentiment of late. Yuan trading was impacted by a China holiday. Markets are quiet in Asia today, with Asian currencies booking only small gains versus the greenback. The sharp rise in oil prices on Friday, which continues in Asian trading today, is likely limiting Asia FX gains. The double-edged sword of China’s reopening is that oil prices are likely to remain firm as well as demand returns. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The Monetary Policy Council in Poland meets on Wednesday, 8 June. Rates are expected to be increased and the National Bank of Poland is still far from the end of its hiking cycle The Monetary Policy Council in Poland is expected to raise rates Rates expected to rise The negative short-term impact of the war in Ukraine on GDP is limited. With a high level of production backlogs, output growth remains high, but new orders contraction is significant, which bodes ill for the rest of 2022. However, CPI gets sticky and maybe persistent, requiring further NBP hikes to offset fiscal expansion (c.3% GDP). The high level of activity at the turn of 2021/22 means that 2022 GDP growth is likely to average around 4.7%. Supporting consumption is a slew of nearly 2 million refugees from Ukraine. After a successful first half of 2022, we face a more difficult second part of the year due to the negative impact of the war on Polish exports to the East and West, no sustainably high contribution of inventories in 1Q21 (7.7% of GDP), weaker investment constrained by uncertainty and availability of supplies, and a downturn in construction as a result of interest rate hikes. An extended period of elevated inflation lies ahead. We forecast average annual CPI of over 13% in 2022, with a peak of 15-20% YoY in 4Q22. The commodity shock was so strong and widespread that inflation will remain elevated even when GDP returns near to its potential. Prices are being pushed up by increases in energy, materials, and transportation. More worrisome is that core inflation shows one long stream of month-on-month rises, which we find as evidence of second-round effects. Domestic demand is so firm that businesses can easily pass higher costs to retail prices. It will take 2-3 quarters for the recent war shock to fully translate into consumer prices. Hence, the rhetoric of the National Bank of Poland remains very hawkish. We expect a series of recent CPI surprises to force the Council to increase rates by 100bp this week, above market expectations (75bp). We believe the MPC will continue raising rates, bringing the reference rate to the target level of 8.5% in late 2022/early 2023. With expansionary fiscal policy, we see rate cuts no sooner than in 2024. FX and Money Markets We believe the NBP's policy tightening will be much stronger than either the Fed or the European Central Bank. In our opinion, this justifies further strengthening of the zloty, especially as market tensions related to the war are clearly easing. Moreover, comments from the European Commission point to the imminent launch of the Recovery Fund. This will provide additional support for the zloty, as EU funds will be exchanged on the market. We expect the €/PLN exchange rate to reach 4.50 or slightly below by the end of the year. In 2023, the appreciation of the zloty should continue, even below 4.40 in 4Q23. Domestic Debt and Rates We believe that PLN IRS rates are pricing in too low a path for NBP rates. In particular, markets expect rate cuts as early as next year, which seems unlikely given the expansionary fiscal policy. This, in our opinion, gives room for PLN IRS to grow. Read this article on THINK TagsPoland central bank National Bank of Poland Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Gold lost 1% to $1850 on Friday, declining under pressure from the overall pull from risky assets. For short-term traders, it is also telling that this decline mostly erased the gains of the first few days of the month and prevented the rebound from turning into new upside momentum. Gold came up against the resistance of sellers on Friday, as it did a fortnight ago, trying to move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line from the highs of April near $2000 to the lows of May, below $1790. The following potentially significant level is the $1840 area, where the 200-day moving average passes. In early June, the buyers prevented gold from getting below that line, but it makes sense to expect that the bears have entirely abandoned the idea of breaking below it. It is also interesting that an increase in central bank buying accompanied the fall in the price of gold in April. For April, new data from the World Gold Council showed net purchases by global central banks of 19.4 tonnes after net sales in March. Central bank purchases should not be taken as a bullish signal for the market as regulators often acted as market stabilisers by selling in the early 2000s during one of the strongest rallies. Uzbekistan (+9.4t), Turkey (+5.6t) and Kazakhstan (+5.3t) were the most substantial buyers of gold. Sales were more modest, with Germany (-0.9t) and Mexico and the Czech Republic (-0.1t each) contributing the most. In our view, net purchases of gold by EMs and sales by developed economies indicate a relatively benign financial environment in the global economy. Otherwise, EMs were forced to sell gold to protect their currencies from declines.

Relevance up to 11:00 2022-06-11 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313016 Divergences in the Fed's monetary policy with other central banks and American exceptionalism, when US GDP growth was faster than that of its main competitors and the global economy as a whole, allowed the USD index to soar to 20-year highs. However, an increase in the federal funds rate slows down the gross domestic product in the States, while in some other countries the opposite process is underway. Divergence in economic growth is no longer playing on the side of the US dollar. It has serious opponents. The decline in employment growth and inflation, disappointing statistics on business activity, and the real estate market are strong evidence of the loss of a pair of US GDP. This is normal in the context of the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. The question is, will an aggressive rate hike provoke a recession? Australia's economy, by contrast, continues to accelerate. The strongest labor market in the last 48 years, benefits from problems with grain supplies from Ukraine and India, a strong raw materials market in general, and hopes for monetary incentives from China to open the way for further economic growth of the Green Continent. In the first quarter, it accelerated to 3.3% y/y and to 0.8% q/q, which, against the background of the sliding of the American analog into the red zone, became one of the drivers of the AUDUSD rebound from the levels of the May lows by 5.7%. Rapid GDP growth, inflation at 5.1%, which is above the upper limit of the targeted range of 2-3%, and the lowest unemployment in almost half a century allowed the RBA to begin a cycle of tightening monetary policy. Dynamics of the main economic indicators of Australia     Now the markets are worried about how much the cash rate will grow at the meeting on June 7? 15 out of 29 Bloomberg experts predict that by 25 bps, three - by 50 bps, and the remaining 11 - by 40 bps. Financial markets also adhere to the latter opinion. Proponents of gradual monetary restriction nod to household debt, and an increase in the cost of services will lead to a decrease in consumption. The latter accounts for 60% of GDP. "Hawks" talk about the need to rein in inflation as quickly as possible and cite the example of the Fed and other central banks that use big steps. In my opinion, when a significant part of the positive from the increase in the federal funds rate is already embedded in the US dollar quotes, while Bloomberg experts' forecasts for the cash rate growth limit of up to 2% fall short of market expectations of 2.8% by December and up to 3.6% a year later, the AUDUSD pair has not yet revealed its potential. UBS predicts its growth to 0.76 by the end of 2022 and to 0.78 by the end of March 2023, and this makes sense. AUDUSD, the daily chart     Technically, finding AUDUSD above fair value and moving averages indicates the dominance of "bulls". A breakout of resistance at 0.7255, where an important pivot level is located, or a rebound from supports at 0.714 and 0.71 should be used to form long positions.

Relevance up to 13:00 2022-06-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/278933 Technical analysis: Gold has been trading downsides I expected but I still see further downside movement. There is the breakout of the bear flag pattern in the background.. Trading recommendation: Due to the breakout of the bear flag pattern in the background and the impulsive downside swing in the background, I see potential for further downside movement. Watch for potential selling opportunities on the intraday rallies with the downside objectives at $1.841 and $1.830. MACD is showing downside reading and potential for the new fresh downside reading, which is sign that sellers are in control. Key resistance is set at the price of $1.870 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/278933

The Australian dollar went on a wild ride late last week. AUD/USD jumped 1.27% on Thursday, only to cough up most of these gains on Friday.  The Aussie is showing little movement today, as the markets eye the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision on Tuesday. Aussie in calm waters ahead of RBA - MarketPulseMarketPulse RBA poised for back-to-back rate hikes The RBA is widely expected to raise interest rates back-to-back, for the first time since 2013. It’s not clear what the size of the hike will be, with the most likely scenario being a 40-bps increase, which would raise the cash rate to 0.75%. If the RBA opts for a modest 25-bps hike, investors could be disappointed and the Australian dollar could lose ground. The RBA started its rate-hike cycle last month and is expected to raise rates to 3% or even higher, which means that the Bank will be raising rates in the second half of the year and into 2023. The aggressive rate hiking by the RBA will help the Australian dollar keep pace with the US dollar in terms of the US/Australia rate differential. US yields climbed on Friday after the May nonfarm payrolls were stronger than expected. The economy added 390 thousand jobs, above the forecast of 325 thousand and indicating that the labour market remains robust. The report has solidified expectations that the Fed will deliver 50-bps hikes at the June and July meetings. Federal Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will take a pause from rate hikes in September, but that view is by no means unanimous. On Thursday, Fed Vice Chair Brainard said the Fed should not take a break from rate hikes in September, and that the Fed might continue with 50-bps hikes if inflation doesn’t peak. What makes Brainard’s comments noteworthy is that she is considered a leading dove on the Fed, which is indicative of the hawkish pivot the Fed has taken as inflation continues to accelerate. Echoing Brainard, Fed member Mester said that the Fed had to act aggressively to contain inflation and that could mean an increase at the September meeting. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.7207. Above, there is resistance at 0.7252 There is support at 0.7121 and 0.7076 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The Japanese yen has started the week quietly. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 130.63, up 0.15% on the day. Yen steadies after slide - MarketPulseMarketPulse It was a week to forget for the yen, as USD/JPY surged 2.91%, the biggest weekly gain this year. The driver of the yen’s downswing was primarily the rise in US bond yields, which have started the week with gains and are closing in on the 3% level. US yields climbed on Friday after the May nonfarm payrolls were stronger than expected. The economy added 390 thousand jobs, above the forecast of 325 thousand and indicating that the labour market remains robust. The report has solidified expectations that the Fed will deliver 50-bps hikes at the June and July meetings. Ahead of the NFP release, Fed members were sending out hawkish messages to the markets. On Thursday, Fed Vice Chair Brainard said the Fed should not take a break from rate hikes in September, and that the Fed might continue with 50-bps hikes if inflation doesn’t peak. What makes Brainard’s comments noteworthy is that she is considered a leading dove on the Fed, which is indicative of the hawkish pivot the Fed has taken as inflation continues to accelerate. Echoing Brainard, Fed member Mester said that the Fed had to act aggressively to contain inflation and that could mean an increase in September.   BoJ’s Kuroda dismisses tightening With the Japanese yen declining in health and trading above 130 to the dollar, there has been talk that the BoJ might intervene in order to prop up the currency. BoJ Governor Kuroda poured cold water on any such expectations on Monday, stating that monetary tightening was not “suitable”. Kuroda said that the economy was still recovering from Covid and high commodity prices were adding pressure on the economy. He added that the BoJ would adhere to its ultra-loose policy until the Bank achieved its inflation target of 2%. With Kuroda doubling down on the Bank’s accommodative policy, the risk for the yen is clearly tilted to the downside, barring a decline in US Treasury yields. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY faces resistance at 1.3124 and 1.3226 There is support at 129.56 and 128.14 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Our professionals at B2Broker would like to announce the newly reformed B2Trader & B2Core, including newly implemented features. We strive every day to develop the most accessible, secure, and efficient platforms in the industry. These recent updates are yet another evidence of our commitment to bringing the most innovative solutions. Here are some of the main features of the latest update:  Brand-new commission framework New and unique tips for customers P&L filters and client ID record Upgraded one's performance and stability Fresh interface for more delicate clients' experience We believe you will enjoy our improvements, and we look forward to sharing with you more attractive features! New Commissions Structure We are always active when it comes to looking for new options to empower our client's trading journey. For that reason, we have utterly reevaluated the commission system. It is no longer necessary to set a role for each client since we have installed a flexible group system where your admins set desired conditions for a specific community of users. It will be possible for each of these groups to adjust the commission for the selected tools. This progressive feature gives our customers even more control than they used to have. With B2Trader, we will provide you with the opportunity to push your trading platform to the maximum potential.  Updated UI Our developers successfully added a series of handy tips that significantly boost the experience of every client. Since then, it has become pretty simple to understand the interface of the trading platform. It became possible because every component is now described separately. Furthermore, we will update the tips regularly to make sure they always reflect the latest replacements to the platform. Customers are welcome to choose their level of qualification at the onboarding stage, and there are currently three main statuses: New, Experienced, and Pro. Depending on the user's experience, they are able to choose different outlines that clarify every detail of the trading platform. For instance, if a client decides to choose a Newcomer alternative, they will obtain a step-by-step guide that will show them how to use the platform and how to trade or treat their account. When choosing "Experienced," customers will acquire appropriate information. These cover different topics, such as analysis of financial markets together with risk management. We assure that all newcomers have a great experience and can enjoy every aspect of our platform by offering these various alternatives. Client ID Reports With this latest update, we have reduced monotonous manual operations for our customers. Registration for local financial regulators is currently a simple process. It became a reality because of the inclusion of unique client IDs. Clients' emails and IDs are automatically uploaded to all pages where the user is active. It will include all transfers, transaction/trades, transaction/orders, balance/users, and commission/users. Thanks to this update, complying with regulations has never been easier for our clients. We're honored to achieve such an accomplishment and finally offer it to our valued customers. New Pair Field Update Yet another update is the improved field of creating a new pair. Please, find the buttons: Settings → Markets → Add Market + Edit Market. These hint areas are now enriched with error notifications. From now on, our users have the ability to see what should be entered in the fields and can no longer save an invalid market. This update is certainly going to ensure that all markets are set up in the right way and will function properly. Optimized Filters The Profit and Loss area in the supervisor board has changed as well. Now it includes a filter by year option to provide a more straightforward analysis of the client's data. This field will now present the date the customer's data was last adjusted to make it less complicated to trace changes. The update also includes several other bug fixes and improvements. Conclusion B2Trader and B2Core are the most efficient platforms in the industry that provide traders with many benefits. These two solutions make the trading experience even smoother and more enjoyable. The new series of updates coming in the near future will boost these features even more. Therefore, be sure not to miss them. And if you haven't tried out our platforms, do not hesitate and go ahead!

Relevance up to 20:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Even before the opening of the US trading session, the dollar began to steadily strengthen its positions, which is rather strange given the empty macroeconomic calendar. Just like today. In addition, there was also nothing in the news background that could somehow affect the development of events. Thus, what happened most likely lies in the plane of technical factors, which is not surprising in general, since against the background of the absence of obvious fundamental factors, the market switches to technical ones. Another similar situation may hint at the lack of market participants' faith in the prospects of Europe as a whole. After all, representatives of the European Central Bank are already directly talking about the imminent increase in the interest rate, which should be the first since 2011 and should contribute to the strengthening of the euro. However, the general state of the European economy, coupled with the ever-increasing risks of energy shortages, which are most acute in the euro area, cause more and more concerns. Olaf Scholz's trip to Africa in order to find alternative sources of supply is worth it after the decision of the European Union to abandon Russian energy carriers. It is quite obvious that even if Europe can find a replacement for Russian oil and gas, it will cost much more. And this is despite the fact that inflation is not even slowing down, and fuel prices are higher than ever before. In such circumstances, it is difficult to feel a sense of optimism about the European economy.     The EURUSD currency pair has a characteristic amplitude move within the framework of a two-week stagnation. The quote is squeezed between two levels of 1.0636 and 1.0800. It can be assumed that there is a gradual change of trading interest in the market. This may lead to the completion of the correction from the pivot point of 1.0350.     Since the beginning of June, the GBPUSD currency pair has been in a downward cycle from the resistance level of 1.2650. This movement indicates the completion of the correction and the gradual recovery of dollar positions within the main trend. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313115

The Australian dollar showed some bounce on Tuesday, courtesy of the RBA rate decision. AUD/USD produced a flash spike of 60 points after the move and touched a daily high of 0.7248, but was unable to consolidate.  In the European session, the Aussie is trading at 0.7180, unchanged on the day. RBA surprises with 50bp hike The RBA had a huge surprise up its sleeve, as it delivered a 50bp rate hike, bringing the cash rate to 0.85%. The meeting was live, with the markets had expected a modest 25bp rise, although there were some forecasts of a 40bp increase as well. The super-size 50bp move indicates that the RBA is determined to curb inflation with an aggressive rate-tightening cycle. At the same time, the RBA runs the risk of appearing to be in panic mode with such a large hike and runs the risk of losing credibility if inflation doesn’t start to ease soon. The RBA’s rate statement was not particularly hawkish, considering the massive rate hike. That could explain why the Australian dollar was not able to capitalize on the rate hike, as the spike quickly fizzled. The statement noted that inflation had accelerated more than anticipated and was expected to increase further before declining next year. The Bank expressed confidence that today’s rate hike would contribute to inflation falling “over time”. The statement also noted that the economy was resilient and the labour market remains strong. The US dollar received a boost from US Treasury yields, as the 5, 10 and 30-year yields are all above the 3 per cent level. The upward move in US yields could be related to this week’s USD 96 billion in government bond sales in the 3, 10 and 30-year tenors. Will yields remain above 3% during the week? If so, the dollar could show some strong movement after the CPI release on Friday. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.7211 earlier in the day. The next resistance line is 0.7280 0.7158 is under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 0.7069   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stock markets are back in the red on Tuesday, giving back the bulk of Monday’s gains in a sign of ongoing uncertainty as to the direction of equity markets and the economy.   There is clearly appetite at these levels but that’s not being backed up by momentum of any kind. Hardly surprising given the sheer uncertainty around inflation, interest rates and the economy. Central banks are racing to catch up but that may come at a great cost.   RBA surprises with 50bp increase The RBA overnight became the latest to join the super-sized club, following in the footsteps of the Fed, BoC and RBNZ, among others. The decision to hike by 50 basis points came as quite a shock to the markets, with 25 priced in ahead of the meeting. It was the biggest hike in more than two decades and another sign of policymakers belatedly recognising the urgency of the inflation problem. And there’s plenty more to come.   The ECB is very late to the party but will likely announce an end to net asset purchases on Thursday and a desire to raise rates from next month, bringing the deposit rate out of negative territory in the third quarter. This doesn’t exactly fall into the bracket of recognising the urgency but then it is the ECB, so by its standards perhaps it does.   The BoE was early to the party compared to many of its peers and it’s also been the first to concede defeat on a recession, something others may follow on in the months ahead. If today’s UK BRC retail sales data is a sign of things to come then the BoE is right to be so pessimistic. The cost-of-living crisis has well and truly arrived and the data suggests households are already cutting back. The final PMI data, while much better than the flash reading, was also a big drop from April and reflects the more pessimistic outlook.   One thing the UK won’t have to deal with (yet) is political uncertainty after Boris survived the no-confidence vote. He didn’t exactly do it in emphatic fashion though, leaving many to believe he has merely postponed his departure rather than prevent it altogether.   Another failed break higher Bitcoin is also trading around the same level it has for most of the last month but at least the price action this week has been a little more interesting. A 6% rally on Monday has been followed by a 6% decline today, taking bitcoin back below USD 30,000 and confusing crypto traders in the process. It’s really struggling to hang onto rallies much to the frustration and perhaps even concern of the crypto crowd. This remains a key level and a break to the downside could cause far more stress than it did almost a month ago.   For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Oil struggling to hold above USD 120 Oil is continuing to struggle around USD 120 on Tuesday, with Brent and WTI very slightly lower. We’ve seen USD 120 broken on a few occasions over the last week but each time it’s been quickly repelled in a sign of momentum starting to run a little thin. The fundamentals remain bullish for oil prices as China continues to reopen and the OPEC+ “production hike” does little to alleviate the tightness in the market. Still, it’s been a very strong run over the last month, with the price up more than 20% from the May lows. We could potentially see some profit-taking in the short-term but it’s hard to imagine it being too severe, barring significant growth downgrades or a surge in Covid cases in China. Gold consolidation continues As has so often been the case in recent weeks, gold is continuing to fluctuate around USD 1,850 today and showing little sign of a burst in either direction. It struggled once more around USD 1,870 on Friday, reinforcing it as a key area of resistance to the upside, while USD 1,830 continues to be the first line of support below. We may have to wait for the inflation data at the end of the week for an interesting move in either direction. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil clutching to US 120, gold drifting - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Dollar continues to pummel yen The Japanese yen continues to lose ground. USD/JPY touched the 133 line earlier in the day, as the yen hit a 20-year low. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 132.55, up 0.50% on the day. The dollar index rose as much as 0.39% today and hit its highest level since May 23rd, before giving up these gains. The sharp descent of the yen can be attributed to two factors. First, US Treasury yields are moving higher, and on Tuesday, the 5, 10 and 30-year yields are now above the 3 per cent level. The upward move in US yields could be related to this week’s USD 96 billion in government bond sales in the 3, 10 and 30-year tenors. The dollar has momentum and if Treasury yields remain above 3% and Friday’s US CPI print is high, USD/JPY should respond with further gains. The second factor weighing on the yen is the Bank of Japan’s ultra-accommodative policy. BoJ Governor Kuroda said on Monday that monetary tightening was “not suitable and that the central bank would maintain its ultra-loose policy until the Bank achieved its inflation target of 2.0%. The BoJ has been quick to intervene to defend its yield curve, purchasing JGBs in order to cap yields on 10-year bonds at 0.25%. There has been speculation that the BoJ has a ‘line in the sand’ at which it would intervene to prop up the yen, but the yen continues to fall and touched 133 today with no signs that the BoJ is planning to step in. It should be remembered that Kuroda has stated on more than one occasion that a weak yen is mostly positive for the economy. In addition, surging oil prices are pressuring the yen, as crude oil is priced in US dollars. With US rates moving higher and the BoJ keeping a cap on JGB yields, the US/Japan rate differential continues to widen, and the risk to the yen remains tilted to the downside. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is testing resistance at 1.3226. Above, there is resistance at 1.3368 There is support at 131.24 and 129.56   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Japanese yen falls to 20-year low - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Summary:  Global yields posted new cycle highs nearly everywhere yesterday save for in the US, a factor that has held the US dollar back recently. That didn’t stop USDJPY from posting aggressive new highs, however, as the JPY remains under intense pressure from rising yields. Elsewhere, the RBA surprised with a larger hike than most expected, while the calendar focus this week is on the Thursday ECB meeting and Friday May US CPI reading. FX Trading focus: JPY dragged to new cycle low on fresh yield rise Rising global yields are punishing the Japanese yen once again, with all major JPY crosses surging higher again overnight on the fresh pop in yields. USDJPY posted a new 20-year high of 133.00 this morning as the next chart focus is on the 135.00+ highs of 2002 next, and this despite US yields lagging global peers of late (more below). If this rise in yields continues, the Bank of Japan will rapidly find itself in a political pinch due to its insistence on the yield-curve control (YCC) policy under which it caps 10-year JGB’s at 0.25%. Only a strong backdown in yields and commodity prices in coming weeks may be able to save Governor Kuroda from an embarrassing climb-down from its YCC commitment that would unleash tremendous volatility. Stay tuned and beware the volatility potential in JPY crosses. As discussed in Friday’s update, the latest leg of the rise in global bond yields has seen the rise in US yields lagging considerably, as these have not yet posted highs for the cycle even after yesterday’s strong surge, while yields elsewhere hit new cycle highs already late last week. The US dollar did get a bump on weaker risk sentiment yesterday and overnight, but the move has been modest and financial conditions have not tightened. The US dollar only seems to threaten on the strong side when rising US yields also drive a tightening of general financial conditions. We’re well off the highs in the US dollar, but I am reluctant to call a cycle top for the greenback until we get a sense of whether markets can absorb the Fed’s intended QT at its full intended pace of $95B/month by September 1 and we are beyond the trough of the bear market that we suspect is on the way. Among G-10 currencies only the USDCAD pair strongly suggests a cycle top for the US dollar. The AUDUSD pair is the possibly next shoe to drop if the US dollar continues to weaken. Currently, that AUDUSD chart is in limbo, for the USDCAD pair, the USD has capitulation lower. AUDUSD is the next possible focus for cementing a USD reversal if last week’s highs above 0.7250 fall. Chart: AUDUSDThe RBA hiked the policy rate more than most expected, choosing a full 50-basis point move to take the cash target rate to 0.85% rather than an odd-sized hike many were expecting of 40 bps to get the rate back on a “normal” 0.25% increment of 0.75%. This suggests more urgency to normalize policy than the market was expecting. The reaction in AUDUSD was modest even as AUDNZD, for example, jumped to new multi-year highs. Major AUDUSD resistance at the converging moving averages around 0.7230-60 held last week. The bearish case remains in limbo, however, after the pair reversed so aggressively back above the major 0.7000 chart level. A shift in the narrative on commodities (to the downside) and a weaker global growth outlook and/or a new tightening of financial conditions is likely needed for the old bear trend to reassert, with a move below 0.7000 to prove the point on the chart. Source: Saxo Group The ECB meeting this Thursday arrives after the market has raised the anticipated ECB policy trajectory aggressively over the last couple weeks. The bank has thoroughly guided for an end to  bond purchases this month, with the first hike to come in at the July meeting. Looking further out the curve, the ECB policy rate through the December ECB meeting is now marked at +0.66% versus below 0% as recently as early April. Since mid-May, the rise in the ECB yield trajectory at the front end of the curve has outpaced that of the Fed by around 25 basis points.  Can the ECB exceed these aggressive market expectations? Assuming that the ECB isn’t set to shock relative to its own guidance for July lift-off, a hawkish surprise would seem more likely to take the form of a surprisingly strong upgrade to staff inflation projections, which are due for a refresh after the March set of projections. In March the 2022-24 CPI was projected at 5.1%, 2.1%, and 1.9%. Particularly the 2024 projection being revised above 2.0% might be seen as a strong signal. This might have the market solidifying expectations for 50 basis points moves starting in September (market currently 50/50 on whether the September meeting will see a 25-bp or 50-bp move). The final versions of the various PMI surveys rarely see significant adjustments, but the final May UK Services PMI print out this morning showing 53.4, up from the flash estimate of 51.8. Oddly, this wasn’t what suddenly lit a modest fire under sterling this morning about a half hour before that data release. Sterling has been gyrating all over the place since Boris Johnson survived last night’s party leadership confidence vote 211-148. Political observers still suggest his days may be numbered, but the market implications of political uncertainty aren’t clear – still impressive that EURGBP has steered clear of the key 0.8600 area – may need to wait for the ECB reaction to get a firm sense of that pair’s next move. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The JPY under massive new pressure on the rise in global yields, while CAD leads the charge higher, with AUD not far behind. In momentum terms, one of the more interesting developments is the CHF dropping sharply to start this week. Next week features an SNB meeting. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Interesting to note the weak Scandies as EURNOK and EURSEK have both recently been at tipping points to trend lower, but aren’t doing so. Elsewhere, the USDCHF attempt to flip the trend back higher and NZDUSD to flip lower despite the current status of AUDUSD and USDCAD are interesting subplots as well. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – US Apr. Trade Balance 1230 – Canada Apr. International Merchandise Trade 1400 – Canada May Ivey PMI Source: FX Update: JPY dragged lower still on fresh bump in yields. | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Relevance up to 15:00 2022-06-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument continues to look convincing and does not require adjustments. The instrument has completed the construction of the descending wave 5-E, which is the last in the structure of the descending trend section. If this is indeed the case, then at this time the construction of a new upward trend section has begun. It can turn out to be three-wave, or it can be pulsed. At the moment, two waves of a new section of the trend are already visible. Wave a is completed, and wave b can take a three-wave form, and in this case, the decline in the quotes of the instrument will continue with targets located around the 6th figure or slightly lower. Wave 5-E turned out to be a pronounced five-wave, so its internal wave marking is beyond doubt. The only option now in which the decline of the euro can resume for a long period is the rapid completion of the correction section of the trend and the construction of a new downward impulse. However, to identify this option, you need at least the completion of the ascending wave c, the targets of which are located about 9-10 figures. There are no news and reports, and the dollar enjoys a pause The euro/dollar instrument fell by 40 basis points on Tuesday. The news background of today was simply absent, so the market moved the instrument only based on wave markup. And the wave marking is now almost unambiguous - it assumes a further decrease in the instrument by another 50-100 basis points. Already on Wednesday and Thursday, the news background for the instrument will be much stronger, but this does not mean that demand for the European currency will begin to grow again. American inflation may cause a decline in the European currency and the construction of the corrective wave b will be completed. And on Thursday, the ECB should announce the completion of the APP program or its readiness to raise the interest rate at the next meetings, then the demand for the European currency will already grow. Thus, the wave analysis and the news background still look very harmonious with each other. It is the European Central Bank that can fail. Although the heads of the central banks of the Eurozone have already openly stated the need to raise the rate by 50 basis points, this does not mean that the ECB will decide on such a step. And for sure it will not dare to take such a step in June. By and large, the pressure on the ECB's position is exerted by the inflation indicator, which continues to grow and will continue to do so in the near future. The European economy is showing very modest growth, but this growth still allows you to raise the rate once or twice. I think that in 2022, we will still see a tightening of monetary policy. In addition, the APP program, according to which the ECB still buys securities for not very significant amounts monthly, should be completed this summer. Thus, I believe that monetary policy in the European Union will tighten, but at a very slow pace, much lower than in the United States. This should be enough for the euro currency to build at least a corrective section of the trend. General conclusions Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward trend section is completed. If so, then now you can buy a tool with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.0947, which equates to 161.8% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "up". It is best to wait for the completion of the construction of wave c-b, its low should be located slightly below figure 6.     On a larger scale, it can be seen that the construction of the proposed wave E has been completed. Thus, the entire downtrend has acquired a complete look. If this is true, then in the future for several months the instrument will increase with targets located near the peak of wave D, that is, to the 15th figure.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313184

Relevance up to 17:00 2022-06-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical analysis: USD/JPY has been trading in strong upside cycle and I see potential for further upside continuation. Bullish continuation al patterns are preferable. Trading recommendation: Due to the strong upside cycle on both short and mid term, I see potential for bullish continuation. Watch for buying opportunities on the pullbacks with the upside objectives at the price of 132.90 and 135.00. MACD is showing positive reading, which is good sign that trend is still bullish. Stochastic oscillator is showing potential oversold condition and potential for the rally. Key support s set at the price of 132.20   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/279155

Relevance up to 20:00 2022-06-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Overview : The GBP/USD pair set above strong support at the level of 1.2548, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected for four times confirming uptrend veracity. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 1.2548 because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend from the area of 1.2548 and 1.2560. The GBP/USD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 1.2548 towards the first resistance level at 1.2614 in order to test it.     This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.2666. The level of 1.2666 will act as second resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 1.2666. In overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario as long as the price is above the level of 1.2666. Furthermore, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the top at 1.2666, the market will climb further to 1.2726. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 1.2666; the market will decline further to the level of 1.2520 (daily support 2). then this scenario may be invalidated. But in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario.     Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/279172

June 07, 2022  $USD, consumption, Currency Movement, ECB, Japan, RBA, Trade, UK Overview: The jump in US interest rates helped lift the greenback to new 20-year highs against the Japanese yen and pushed the euro back below $1.07. US equities saw initially strong gains pared and this set the tone for today’s activity. Most of the equity markets in the Asia Pacific region fell, but Japan and China. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is giving back more than half of yesterday’s 0.9% gain. US futures are off about 0.5%. The US 10-year yield is off a couple of basis points but still above the 3% threshold. European yields are lower and the peripheral premium over the core is narrowing today. The greenback is stronger against all the major currencies, including the Australian dollar, where the central bank delivered a larger than expected half-point hike. Emerging market currencies are also mostly lower. The South African rand and Mexican peso are the two notable exceptions. Gold slipped to $1837, a four-day low, but has recovered to approach $1850. July WTI is in a narrow range below $120. It is holding above the five-day moving average near $117.50. US natgas prices are at new highs near 9.50, while Europe’s benchmark is off for the third consecutive session and briefly traded at four-month lows. Iron ore extended its gains for the fourth consecutive session and reached its highest level since late April. On the other hand, copper is off for the third session as it extends the pullback that began at the end of last week. Lastly, July wheat has come back offered after yesterday’s 5.10% gain.   Asia Pacific The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the market by delivering a 50 bp hike earlier today. It was the largest move in more than two decades. Saying that the central bank will "do what is necessary" to check inflation, Governor Lowe signaled additional rate hikes in the coming months. There are six meetings left this year and the swaps market has discounted nearly 235 bp of tightening. The economy is solid and new government is pushing for a 5.1% hike in the minimum wage (to be decided later this month) and new fiscal measures. Australia's two-year yield jumped 17 bp and at 2.84% is back to a small premium over the US, the most in nearly a month. The currency initially rallied through yesterday's high (~$0.7230) to reach almost $0.7250 before returning to little changed levels straddling the $0.7200 level. The key driver of the dollar-yen exchange rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. On a purely directional basis, the correlation over the past 30 session is more than 0.8. On the basis of change, the correlation is a little above 0.55 and has not been above 0.6 since late March. Given the nearly 10 bp jump in the US 10-year yield, the dollar's push higher against the yen is understandable. BOJ Governor Kuroda's comment that a steadily depreciating yen would be positive for the Japanese economy seemed excessive, even though the Swiss franc declined by more than the yen yesterday. Many businesses have expressed concern about the yen's weakness. After all, corporate strategies had evolved in a strong yen environment, like the offshoring of production. The price of Brent has risen by around 90% since early December and the yen has declined by about 14.5% against the dollar at the same time. A weaker yen boosts inflation but is the type of price pressures the BOJ would arguably look pass. Large companies are expected to be able to better cope in the changing economic environment. The Topix 100 is off a little more than 2.25% this year, while the Mothers Index (start-ups) is off 33%. Still, it shows one reason that a Plaza-like agreement is unlikely. The BOJ does not want it (which is not to suggest any other member is calling for one). Separately, Japan's April cash earnings rose 1.7% after the March increase was revised to 2% from 1.2% (year-over-year). This, coupled with the lifting of Covid restrictions helped boost household spending 1% in April month-over-month, and pare the year-over-year decline to 1.7% from -2.3%. China's May reserves unexpectedly rose last month. It was the first increase of the year. The $8 bln increase is about a quarter of a 1% gain to almost $3.128 trillion. It is practically a rounding error and likely accounted for by the appreciation of other reserve currencies against dollar. In May, the euro rose by 1.8%, the Australian and Canadian dollars, by about 1.6%, the yen by 0.8%, and the Russian rouble by nearly 15%. Note too that the 10-year Treasury rallied, and the yield fell nearly 9 bp. The dollar rose to JPY133.00, a new 20-year high. It is the sixth gain in the past seven sessions, and it has risen by more than 4.5% during this run. The high from 2002 was a little above JPY135.00. The pace of the move may again spur cautionary comments from officials. Initial support is seen by JPY132.50. The Australian dollar has traded on both sides of yesterday's range (~$0.7185-$0.7230), and technically, the close is important, if it is outside of that range. In the European morning, it is spending time below yesterday's low. The Aussie is threatening to fall for the fifth session in the past six. Recall that as of the end of May, speculators in the futures market had the largest net short Australian dollar position in around two months. The greenback gapped higher against the Chinese yuan today and hardly looked back. The move was not particularly large. The US dollar rose 0.3% to around CNY6.6750. Last week's high was set near CNY6.7060 ahead of the Friday holiday. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.6649. The median projection (Bloomberg survey) was CNY6.6638. Europe Prime Minister Johnson survived the confidence vote as widely expected, but it was a tighter vote than anticipated. He won 211-148. About 40% of the Tory MPs rebelled. It was more than had sought to force Johnson's predecessor May out. She was out within six months and much of the press accounts speculate on the damage inflicted on Johnson. Meanwhile, the Tories are seen losing the two special elections later this month, and some polls suggest the Tories would lose a snap national election. Technically, the party rules protect Johnson from another vote of confidence for a year. However, the next important opportunity may be the Conservative Party conference in October. Meanwhile, the economic challenges, and the cost-of-living crisis will likely deepen, even though the sharp drop in the May services and composite were pared in the revision. The consumer continues to be squeezed as the 1.5% decline May BRC sales showed. It is the third consecutive monthly decline.  Amid talk that some EMU members may seek an immediate end to the bond buying, reports suggest others may propose a new mechanism to prevent fragmentation (divergence). This seems unlikely for three reasons. First, the ECB has a great deal of flexibility with the reinvestment of maturing proceeds as well as being able to bring forward by up to 12 months other future maturities. Second, a facility for this already exists: The European Stabilization Mechanism. Thirdly, a similar idea was proposed last year--a precautionary instrument but was rebuffed by several creditor nations demanding conditionality. The compromise struck was for the flexibility in reinvesting. German factory orders fell 2.7% in April after the March decline was revised to 4.2% from 4.7%. The data is very disappointing. The median forecast (Bloomberg's survey) looked for a small gain (0.4%). The war in Ukraine and China's lockdowns took a toll. Foreign orders fell 4% in April after a 5.8% fall in March and a 2.4% decline in February. Orders from other eurozone members fell 5.6% after increasing 4.4% in March. Non-eurozone orders slumped 3% in April after a dramatic 11.2% plunge in in March. Domestic orders were off 0.9% after a 1.6% drop in March. There had risen 0.4% in February. Germany reports April industrial output figures tomorrow. The median forecast (Bloomberg) for a 1.2% gain (after the 3.9% drop in March) seems at risk of being too optimistic. The euro slipped to a three-day low near $1.0665 in late Asian turnover and bounced to the session high, a few ticks above $1.07 in early European activity. There is an option for slightly more than 1 bln euros at $1.0730 that expires today, which may be sufficient to cap upticks. For a little more than two weeks, the euro has been trading broadly sideways in a $1.06-$1.08 trading range. It can persist until at least Thursday's ECB meeting. Sterling barely reacted to the initial news that Johnson survived the vote of confidence. However, today, sterling broke out of the four-day consolidation to the downside, to record a low near $1.2430. That is the lowest sterling has been since May 18. It bounced back to trade to almost $1.2535 in the European morning. If that is not the high, we suspect it is close.  America Given the attention Microsoft drew recently when it said the exchange rate developments cut earnings by $460 mln, and other software giants also noted the exchange rate, the April trade figures may draw attention. However, there are two mitigating factors. First, the challenges to the software companies were not that the dollar made exports less competitive but that the dollar's appreciation made the translation of their foreign sales worth less for the dollar-functioning company. The trade figures have little to say about that. Second, US exports soared by 19% in March to a new record high of $180.8 bln (not seasonally adjusted, nominal terms). And we know from the advanced goods trade report that April good exports rose another 3%. Still, the important takeaway from the trade figures is that next exports are unlikely to be as large of a drag in Q2 as they were on growth in Q1. Recall trade subtracted a little more than three percentage points from Q1 growth. Consumer credit (excludes mortgages) soared by a record $52.4 bln in March. The April report comes late in today's session. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a $35 bln rise. This is would another strong increase. Consider the average in 2019 was $15.4 bln a month. Consumer credit fell in 2020 and rose by almost $20.6 bln on average last year. It seems that after a surge in consumption, and in the face of rising prices, households are sustaining, even if shifting the basket of goods, they are purchasing, consumption by four things:  more people working, drawing down savings, use of revolving credit, and equity withdrawals on mortgage refinances. Borrowing from the past and future to fund current consumption seems to be characteristics of late cycle behavior.  Canada also reports merchandise trade figures for April today. It is experiencing a positive terms-of-trade shock, and this has resulted in the trade surplus swinging into surplus. In 2019, the average monthly goods deficit was C$1.5 bln. Last year, the average was almost C$380 mln. The monthly average in the Q1 22 was C$3 bln, the highest since 2008. Separately, Canada's two-year yield has risen even faster than in the US. Since the end of April, the 10 bp US premium has become a swung to a nearly 30 bp discount. This is the most since late last year. The US dollar extended the rebounded that began yesterday against the Canadian dollar. The greenback recorded a low near CAD1.2535 yesterday and recovered to almost CAD1.26. The low had not been seen since April 21. Follow through buying today lifted the US dollar to almost CAD1.2620, but it is straddling the CAD1.26 area near midday in Europe. A move, and ideally, a close above CAD1.2630, lifts the greenback's technical tone, but the CAD1.2650-CAD1.2660 area may offer more formidable resistance. The US dollar recorded an outside day against the Mexican peso yesterday, trading on both sides of the pre-weekend range. However, the close was neutral and the consolidation phase looks set to continue. Resistance is seen near MXN19.62 initially with support around MXN19.50. Lastly, note that after trade figures this morning, Chile's central bank is expected to hike its overnight target rate by 75 bp to 9%. It has hiked rates at alternating meeting this year, but it hiked 125 bp in May. Tomorrow, May inflation figures will be released. The May CPI is expected to have jumped to 11.4% from 10.5% year-over-year. The quarterly monetary policy report is also due tomorrow. Officials want to keep their options open but also want to reassure businesses and investors that the tightening cycle in nearly over.   Disclaimer

Relevance up to 20:00 2022-06-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Overview : The trend of EUR/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.0634 and 1.0732. Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.0732 and 1.0634 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed. Yesterday, the market moved from its bottom at 1.0634 and it continued to rise towards the top of 1.0711. Today, in the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction.     However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0732, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.0787 (the level of 1.0787 coincides with the double top too). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 1.0787 with the first target at 1.0634. If the trend breaks the support level of 1.0634, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 1.0598 in order to test the daily support 2 (horizontal green line). This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.0598 with a view to test the daily support 2.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/279170

Relevance up to 19:00 2022-06-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   In late September, Re-closure below the price level of 1.1700 has initiated downside-movement towards 1.1500 where some recovery was witnessed. Shortly after, Price levels around 1.1700 managed to hold prices for a short period of time before another price decline took place towards 1.1200. Then the EURUSD has temporarily moved-up within the depicted movement channel until downside breakout occurred recently. Since then, the price zone around 1.1500 has applied significant SELLING pressure when a valid SELL Entry was offered upon the previous ascending movement towards it. Shortly after, the EURUSD looked oversold while approaching the price levels of 1.0800. That's where the recent upside movement was previously initiated. That's why, the recent movement towards 1.1200 was considered for another SELL Trade which is already running in profits now. The current ascending movement above 1.0600 enabled further advancement towards 1.0850 where bearish rejection can be applied.     Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/279168

The Canadian dollar has extended its gains on Tuesday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2545, down 0.26% on the day. The Canadian dollar received a boost as Ivey PMI for May climbed to 72.0, up sharply from 64.3 in April. The PMI hit a record high of 74.2 in March. BoC hiking rates, cutting assets The Bank of Canada is matching the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening cycle, after back-to-back 50bp rate hikes for the first time since 2000. Inflation accelerated to 6.8% in April and remains Public Enemy number one. Although we’re not yet seeing an ‘inflation peak’, the results from the sharp rise in interest rates can be seen in the housing market, as home sales fell 12.6% MoM in April. As is the case with other major central banks, the BoC is concerned about inflation expectations becoming unanchored, which makes it critical that the BoC maintains credibility that it will bring inflation down. Aside from hiking interest rates, the BoC commenced quantitative tightening (QT) in April, whereby government bonds are no longer being replaced once they mature. The BoC is committed to QT becoming an important plank in its tightening programme, with a plan to slice its Canadian government bonds total from about CAD 440 billion to CAD 280 billion by the end of 2023. The BoC’s hawkish monetary policy is helping the Canadian dollar keep pace with its US cousin, at a time when the Fed is also tightening aggressively and US Treasury yields are moving higher. Yields on 5, 10 and 30-years are currently above the 3 per cent level. The BoC will need to continue to keep pace with the Fed; otherwise, the US/Canada rate differential will widen and send the Canadian dollar lower. . USD/CAD Technical There is support at 1.2608 and 1.2548 USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2664. Above, there is resistance at 1.2775 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Relevance up to 16:00 2022-06-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look very convincing and does not require adjustments. The downward section of the trend is completed, and the wave e-E, although it has taken a rather complex form, is also five-wave in the structure of the five-wave downward section of the trend, as well as for the euro/dollar instrument. Thus, both instruments presumably completed the construction of downward trend sections. According to the British, the construction of an upward section of the trend has begun, which is currently interpreted by me as a corrective one. I believe that it will turn out to be three-wave, but there is also a second option, in which it will take a pulsed, five-wave form. Now, presumably, the construction of a corrective wave b is continuing, after which wave c will begin with targets located around 30 figures. Wave b can take a three-wave form, as with the euro/dollar instrument. I will note once again that the wave markings of the euro and the pound are very similar now, so we can expect that both currencies will move approximately the same in the next few weeks. There is no news background and the dollar rules the ball The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument decreased by 40 basis points on June 7. However, if we consider the whole wave picture holistically, the decline in the British dollar in the last few days looks rather weak. Of course, the news background, or rather its absence, reduces the market's interest in trading. However, I believe that at the same time, the market is very correctly using the pause that has arisen to build a corrective wave. And when important data begins to arrive, the demand for the Briton may grow again. I can't make a clear conclusion that this is exactly how it will be, but there are times when the wave markup is ambiguous, that is, it assumes several scenarios. This is not the case. Over the past few months, there has not been a single situation where it would require additions or adjustments. Once the impulse downward trend section is completed, it means that we must see three waves up. An interesting event happened yesterday in the UK. Unexpectedly for many, the Conservative Party decided to announce a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson and failed in its desire. The Prime Minister has collected enough votes to stay in his seat, but the bell for the British prime minister is very bad. I cannot say that Boris Johnson is the best prime minister in the history of Britain. Most likely, this is not the case, but still, the personality is quite charismatic. The Briton was not too interested in this news, and given the absolute identity of the movement of the euro/dollar and pound/dollar instruments, it can be concluded that the market did not show any interest in this event. Thus, now we are waiting for the report on American inflation, which will be released tomorrow. Now it is unclear whether it will decline, as it was in April, or resume growth. Therefore, I do not undertake to make forecasts for this indicator. But if the real value surprises the market, then the movements on both instruments may be strong. General conclusions The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument still assumes the completion of the construction of wave E and the entire downward trend segment. Thus, I now advise buying the British for each MACD signal "up" with targets located above the peak of wave a, not lower than the estimated mark of 1.3042, which corresponds to 76.4% Fibonacci. Under certain circumstances, wave marking can become very complicated, but now there is no reason to assume this.   At the higher scale, the entire downward trend section looks fully equipped. Therefore, the continuation of the decline of the instrument below the 22nd figure is postponed indefinitely for the time being. Wave E has taken a five-wave form and looks quite complete. The construction of a minimum three-wave ascending trend section has begun. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313188

Markets appear to be overestimating the policy implications of a possible change in UK leadership, which explains the big GBP swings around Monday's no-confidence vote, which the PM narrowly survived. We see downside risks for the pound, but not related to political noise. Elsewhere, JPY remains on a slippery slope, as does AUD despite the RBA's 50bp hike Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves after attending a cabinet meeting in London Source: Shutterstock USD: Yen underperformance in focus Global risk sentiment started to weaken yesterday during the US trading session and stock indices have opened lower across Western markets today. Let’s see whether this triggers some recovery in the bond market, after another material correction higher in yields yesterday has once again proven to be narrowly dollar-positive. The yen remains the major victim in the higher-yield environment, with USD/JPY breaking fresh two-decade highs and currently trading close to the 133.00 mark. At a time when the prospect of Fed tightening is a major driver of USD strength, the sharply widened differential with the ultra-dovish Bank of Japan surely warrants a sharp rise in USD/JPY. Yesterday, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda firmly reiterated that no tightening plans are under discussion, so it may be down to FX intervention (or the threat to deploy it) by Japanese authorities to stabilise the battered yen. When USD/JPY was last trading above 130.00 – in May – it appeared that verbal intervention may have been enough to stop the JPY selloff. Still, most of the steam out of the USD/JPY was taken from an actual correction in Treasury yields from the 3.12% peak throughout May. Now, markets are seriously testing Japanese authorities’ determination to act in support of the currency, and mere verbal intervention may not prove enough this time. For today, some potential correction in global yields if risk sentiment deteriorates may offer a breather to the yen, but unless we see a material recovery and stabilisation in the currency, we’ll likely hear more on FX intervention in Japan by the end of the week. Looking back at the US, the data calendar is very light today and will remain so until Friday, when inflation numbers for May are released. Some risk-off today may offer some support to low-yielders but apply pressure to higher-beta currencies, and we think the dollar will remain broadly supported on balance, as the underlying stories of Fed tightening and good US economic momentum continue to put a floor under the greenback. EUR: Gently pressing lower EUR/USD has broken back below the 1.0700 mark, largely on the back of widespread dollar strength. We’ll have a bunch of non-market moving data out of the eurozone today and tomorrow, but we might see a decrease in EUR volatility relative to other G10 currencies as a “wait-and-see” approach dominates price action ahead of the European Central Bank announcement on Thursday. Here is our preview of the meeting. As we discussed in yesterday’s FX Daily, the bar for a hawkish surprise on Thursday is set quite high and we see some downside risks for EUR/USD. For today, we expect either some stabilisation or another marginal depreciation in the pair as external factors dominate, and we could see it test the recent 1.0627 low. GBP: Political impact may fade soon Prime Minister Boris Johnson survived a no confidence vote yesterday evening, although as many as 148 party members voted to oust him. This is a narrower victory than the one secured in December 2018 by former PM Theresa May, who resigned six months later. According to the rules, Johnson cannot face another no confidence vote for a year, but lots of commentators are making the point that when this has happened before, leaders have often struggled to carry on beyond a few months given the open division in the party. Accordingly, uncertainty surrounding the leadership is unlikely to fade despite Johnson winning last night’s vote. That said, we currently cannot see any clear implication for economic policy and – by extension – for the pound’s fundamentals. Looking at yesterday’s swings in the pound, we must remember that UK markets were reopening after a four-day break and that might have contributed to increased trading volumes on GBP. At the same time, it is clear that markets attached some positive implication to the currency from a change in leadership in the UK, and the bigger drop this morning may instead signal some concerns of political instability ahead as the Conservative party appears quite divided and the Prime Minister weakened. However, we think markets are overpricing the impact of recent political noise on the UK economy and we expect volatility in the pound to decrease over the coming days, with the focus potentially shifting back to other drivers such as the Bank of England's policy or a slowing economic outlook. In our view, downside risks to the pound persist, but they are not strictly linked to the recent political developments. EUR/GBP may soon touch 0.8600 while cable may extend the drop to the 1.2300-1.2350 area in the near term. AUD: Still vulnerable despite RBA 50bp hike The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 50bp, above the market (25bp) and consensus (40bp) expectations. While flagging the risk of a 50bp move, we thought that the RBA still wanted to “do less” compared to the Fed in regard to tightening. Now, this bigger-than-expected hike means that the RBA has given itself some extra time to turn a bit more data-dependent and possibly default to 25bp increases in the coming meetings even if the Fed goes on with 50bp hikes. We discuss all this in our RBA Review piece, where we also highlight the reasons behind the very short-lived positive reaction by the Aussie dollar. In our view, this is another testament to how short-term rate differentials have de-linked from AUD/USD dynamics and how markets are still reluctant to turn less bearish on AUD given its exposure to China’s clouded demand outlook. We continue to expect a drop to 0.7000 over the coming weeks in AUD/USD. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary:  USD trades higher after US10y yield trades back up above 3.0% while JPY underperform as rate differential comes back in play. USDJPY vols are sharply higher with 1 month up 2 vol since Friday close and risk reversals has flipped back to favor calls, 1 month now 0.25 for topside. Saxo Bank publishes two weekly FX Options Market Update reports covering changes and updates on the FX Options and FX Volatility market. They describe changes in FX volatility levels, risk premium and ideas how to trade based on these. FX volatility, source Saxo Bank. Vol column: At-the-money volatility for the given maturity. 1w column: Change of the at-the-money volatility for the given maturity over the last week. Source: Bloomberg, Blue: USDJPY spot, Black: USDJPY 1 month vol USD trades stronger after US10y yield trades back up above 3.0% and JPY is sharply lower as rate differential comes back in play. USDJPY spot is up 200 pips from Friday close and touched 133.00 highs this morning, this is the highest level in 20 year. Vols are sharply higher with 1 month USDJPY up 2 vol from Friday, now trading around 11.65, while 1 week is up 2.5 vol to 12.0. The whole curve is lifted with 1 year up 1 vol to currently trade 10.0. Risk reversals have flipped back to favor USDJPY calls out to 9 months with 1 month trading 0.3 for calls and 1 week at 0.60. The sharp move higher in vol has pushed the risk premium to just above 2.0 vol which makes USDJPY the most expensive currency pair in G10. Next resistance comes in at 135-136 area and above that there is no targets before the 1998 highs at 147.66. We can’t rule out some corrections given the magnitude and speed of the recent move and we can expect BoJ to come in and try talk down UDSJPY when we get closer to 135. The trend is higher and the 135-136 resistance could easily be taken out if US10y makes new highs above 3.20. With that said we like to sell short dated USDJPY call with strikes at or above 135 after the sharp repricing of vol and risk reversals. Sell 1 week 135.00 USDJPY callReceive 20 pips Alternative Sell 2 week 136.00 USDJPY callReceive 30 pips Spot ref.: 132.85 Source: Saxo Bank The Top/Bottom charts shows the top 5 and bottom 5 values/changes for at-the-money vol, risk reversal (RR) and risk premium of the 45 currency pairs we are tracking. Risk premium: Implied (Imp) minus realized volatility. A positive risk premium means implied volatility trades above realized volatility, i.e. the implied volatility can be seen as “rich”. Change: The difference between current price/volatility and where it closed 1w ago. FX Options Trading: You should be aware that in purchasing Foreign Exchange Options, your potential loss will be the amount of the premium paid for the option, plus any fees or transaction charges that are applicable, should the option not achieve its strike price on the expiry date If you write an option, the risk involved is considerably higher than buying an option. You may be liable for margin to maintain your position and a loss may be sustained well in excess of the premium received. By writing an option, you accept a legal obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset if the option is exercised against you; however far the market price has moved away from the strike. If you already own the underlying asset that you have contracted to sell, your risk will be limited. If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure. Learn more about FX Options: Forex Options – An introduction Forex Options – Exotic options Forex Options - Webinars   Source: Saxo Bank

A pick up in the pace of tightening by India's Reserve Bank indicates that the inflation threat is being taken seriously Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das 4.90% Repurchase rate   Higher than expected 50bp, the mode not the median While more forecasters were expecting the RBI to hike by 50bp today than by any other number, the median, which is what is usually referred to as the consensus expectation, was for a hike of only 40bp. Even so, the market response has been relatively muted. USD/INR started today trading at about 77.69, slightly stronger than at the end of trading yesterday, but it weakened throughout the day and experienced only the most fleeting of rallies on the announcement.  India inflation and policy rates india inflation Source: CEIC, ING Governor's statement indicates more to come The governor's statement is well worth a read and contains a number of useful pointers about the path ahead. Here are some of the highlights we note, together with our interpretation:  "The MPC also decided to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth. It may be noted in this context that the repo rate still remains below its pre-pandemic level". The pre-pandemic repo rate was 5.15%, so today's hike still leaves it 25bp lower than it was then. At a minimum, there is this much more tightening to come.  "There are growing signs of a higher pass-through of input costs to selling prices. The MPC noted that inflation is likely to remain above the upper tolerance band of 6 per cent through the first three quarters of 2022-23". We are likely to see policy being moved steadily towards a much less accommodative setting over the remainder of the year, but rates could start to come down in 2023.  "Available information for April and May 2022 indicates that the recovery in domestic economic activity remains firm, with growth impulses getting increasingly broad based." The economy is resilient, and can weather tighter monetary policy. Where will this end? Figuring out where and when all this will end is something of a wet-finger waving exercise. But at a very simplistic level, we would expect policy interest rates to rise to a point where by the end of the year, they are at or slightly higher than the inflation rate, so delivering a modestly positive real rate. We currently have rates peaking at 5.80 in 1Q23, though it would probably make sense to bring that forward to 4Q22. That in no way would mark a restrictive policy rate, but would remove much of the extraordinary accommodation that is still present today. It is of course subject to considerable uncertainty - the path of the Russia-Ukraine war and its ongoing impact on global commodity prices, China's on-off lockdowns, as well as the impact of international interest rates on the global economy (growing recession concerns).  Read this article on THINK  

Summary:  Global bond yields, and especially US treasury yields, consolidated lower yesterday and yet the JPY weakening move that has been nominally coincident (inversely) with the direction in global bond yields kept ride on trucking. This suggests that aggressive speculative flows in JPY are behind at least some of the move. And it is worth noting that the CNHJPY exchange rate is pushing at the range highs that stretch back several years and have twice signaled major shifts in the CNH. FX Trading focus: JPY drop extends despite consolidation in global bond yields The Japanese yen weakening move continued apace overnight in the wake of an upward Q1 GDP revision and a solid uptick in the May Eco Watchers Survey. The aggressive extension lower in the currency looks slightly odd, given that global bond yields, and especially US Treasury yields, saw a solid consolidation lower yesterday. Looking at the origins of this latest leg lower in the JPY, the move in USDJPY began on May 31, the day when US long treasury yields halted their slide lower and lifted off from their consolidation lows as well. But a good friend and far-more-clever market observer than I argues that the move makes sense in light of a shift in the wording on that very day of a new fiscal draft away from a commitment to balancing the budget by 2025. This did merely make explicit something that was widely considered unlikely anyway, and other countries are hardly likely to get their fiscal houses in order before the next recession strikes (presumably well before 2025), but it is an FX negative, together with other recent signs the PM Kishida has few qualms with the current BoJ policy mix and is therefore more likely to nominate someone like him when Kuroda’s term expires next year. But the aggressive move lower in the JPY also has a clear speculative element, as is visible in rather stretched speculative US futures positioning and indications that “Mrs. Watanabe” is enjoying the strong carry trade as the JPY weakens, going long other currencies like the AUD and especially BRL in recent months. This speculative element and the Japanese external capital flows focus driving a good portion of the JPY weakness (as has so often been the case in the past) is covered very well in a column from Bloomberg’s John Authers today. The question is how late in the game we are here – is this the beginning or middle of a climax phase or do we have months to run? It is hard to tell, the higher yields go and the lower the JPY goes, the more explosive the blowback when and if either the BoJ is forced off the YCC commitment, or the speculative bubble plays itself out.   Chart: CNHJPYInteresting to watch the JPY move in isolation, but also the CNHJPY exchange rate in coming days as it is interesting to note that China chose to allow its currency to weaken just as the CNHJPY cross was poking at the 20.00 level for the first time since 2015, which was near the time frame in which China chose to dramatically rework its foreign exchange policy. If the USDJPY rate continues higher, we should expect a renewed bout of volatility in the USDCNH rate as well. Source: Saxo Group The low-yielder theme is also prominent in EURCHF today as EURCHF challenges above its 200-day moving average, which it has generally traded below since July of last year. We’re seeing new highs in EU yields and pricing of the ECB heading into tomorrow’s ECB meeting (previewed in yesterday’s update) after an upgrade of the Q1 GDP estimate to 0.6% QoQ from 0.3% originally. Sterling was sharply strong yesterday after the gyrations before and after the Boris Johnson leadership vote, with the strength likely stemming from the rebound in risk sentiment yesterday together with promises of tax cuts for companies from Chancellor Sunak in the fall budget statement, but these latter sources of support are eroding fast today and still looking for the potential for a EURGBP break higher post ECB if Lagarde and company can support the repricing of the forward yield curve for the euro. Watch the 0.8600 area post-ECB tomorrow. The Turkish lira has been in for an ugly drubbing in recent weeks, with the deterioration picking up sharply today in the wake of fresh comments from Turkish president Erdogan, who has been out talking up interest rate cuts as the needed medicine for reducing inflation. This after the country posted a year-on-year inflation rate of 73.5% in May (although month-on-month it was 3.0% vs. 4% expected) After a tenuous period of stability when USDTRY traded below 15.00 from early March until early May, the currency has now moved over 12% lower in carry adjusted terms since early May versus the US dollar. At the same time, President Erdogan is complicating Sweden and Finland’s application to join NATO with claims that Sweden must stop supporting “terrorism”, with a single deciding vote in the Swedish parliament holding the Swedish government together an ethnic Kurd and former Peshmerga fighter. You can’t make it up. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The pressure on the JPY continues to mount, with some fresh downside in the CHF as well. As noted above, curious to see if CNH responds to the JPY situation soon. Elsewhere, CAD is riding high on oil and Euro is in a holding pattern – let’s see what the ECB can deliver. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Watching USDCNH as a derivative of the CNHJPY and USDJPY situation and after the recent USDCNH new lows were rejected. USDCHF has also crossed back to positive. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Source: FX Update: JPY drop extends despite yield consolidation. | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

London, UK – Tuesday 10th June 2022: ICM.com, a multi-regulated online trading provider is preparing once again to partner with London’s Polo in The Park Event. After both the 2020 and 2021 International Polo events were canceled due to COVID restrictions, ICM.com is excited to be sponsoring the International Chestertons Polo in the Park event for its 6th consecutive year. A firm fixture in London’s social calendar, the prestigious event will be taking place in Hurlingham Park in Fulham, bringing world-class polo to the capital. The annual event typically marks the start of the summer season and will be taking place on the 10th, 11th & 12th of June 2022 in Hurlingham Park, England. As well as the games, there will be lots of entertainment for everyone, including kids. Chestertons Polo in the park is one of a series of renowned British sporting events alongside the likes of Wimbledon, the boat race, ascot, and the London marathon. The event brings together six city Polo teams from around the world, including Buenos Aires, New York, Zurich, Sydney, London, and Dubai. ICM.com first became a partner of the event in 2016, you can look out for the ICM.com logo on the teams’ shirts, teams’ jeans, pitch side hoardings, event program, and prizegiving backdrop. Shoaib Abedi founder and CEO of ICM.com commented on the partnership ‘The Chestertons Polo in the Park event is iconic in the British calendar, we’re proud to be supporting a team that shares the same dedication to teamwork, discipline, and determination to succeed.’ For further information please visit www.ICM.com

The euro is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0727, up 0.20% on the day. ECB to terminate QE, start rate-hike cycle It has been a calm week for the euro thus far, but that could change on Thursday, as the ECB holds a key policy meeting. It is widely expected that the Lagarde & Co. will pivot to a tightening bias, which in itself is a dramatic development as the ECB has maintained an accommodative monetary stance for years. The ECB has been signalling a more hawkish stance for months, as policy makers have scrambled to battle surging inflation in the eurozone, which has hit 8.1% in May. At tomorrow’s meeting, ECB President Lagarde is expected to take the formal step of announcing that the QE programme will wind up early in Q3, with the interest rate liftoff to continue in July. The markets will be looking for guidance with regard to the size of upcoming rate hikes. Any hints of a supersize 50bp increase would be bullish for the euro. The ECB will also release updated inflation and GDP forecasts, with inflation likely to be revised upwards and GDP downwards. This would indicate that the risk for eurozone growth remains tilted to the downside, which means the euro will have a tough time gaining on the dollar in the short to medium term. The eurozone released employment and GDP data for Q1 earlier in the day, and the numbers were nothing to write home about. Employment and GDP both rose by 0.6%. Consumers are holding their purse strings tight, as household final consumption expenditure in Q1 came in at -0.7%, weaker than the -0.3% reading in Q4 2021. Weak consumer demand hurt GDP and with the ECB poised to hike rates, consumer spending could continue to decline which would be bad news for the fragile eurozone economy. . EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0711. Above, there is resistance at 1.0796 There is support at 1.0636 and 1.0551 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Persistent headwinds are pushing the eurozone into a 'muddling through' scenario, and there is a high probability that the region will see one quarter of negative growth this year. But sticky inflation and higher inflation expectations will force the European Central Bank to abandon negative interest rates in the third quarter Muddling through? President of EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel at a summit this week in Brussels Content Farewell to negative interest rates Mixed feelings Not exactly the roaring twenties Higher inflation expectations Farewell to negative interest rates In a blog on the ECB’s website, President Christine Lagarde brought forward the growing consensus that has been building within the governing council, namely that stickier-thanexpected inflation requires the quick removal of non-conventional policy measures. A first rate hike in July looks like a near certainty and a 50bp increase cannot be excluded, especially if core inflation comes in higher than expected in the run-up to the July meeting. In any case, negative rates will have disappeared come September. It now seems that the ECB wants to seize the window of opportunity to normalise monetary policy. This requires policymakers to walk a fine line between the rising inflation expectations and economic headwinds. Sentiment divergence between consumers and businesses Source: Refinitiv Datastream Mixed feelings The first quarter showed an upwardly revised 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth rate, but the second quarter looks more of a conundrum. There is no hard data yet and the sentiment data has been rather inconsistent. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, consumer confidence has dropped to recessionary levels, with the May reading showing hardly any improvement. However, business confidence figures have held up better while still declining. The flash eurozone PMI composite index came in at 54.9, firmly above the boom-or-bust 50 level. This is largely on the back of a strong services sector, which seems to be benefiting from some post-pandemic catch-up demand. Indeed, holiday reservations are back or even above pre-pandemic levels. In the manufacturing sector, the deceleration is more obvious on the back of renewed supply chain problems, higher input prices, and falling orders. Not exactly the roaring twenties There is no clear weakening yet in the labour market, but wages, although rising a bit more rapidly now, are definitely not keeping pace with inflation. At the same time, oil prices are climbing on the back of a (partial) European boycott of Russian oil, further sapping households’ purchasing power. As such, we don’t think that consumption will be a strong growth driver in the coming quarters. And businesses might also become more cautious in their investment plans. That said, there still seems to be a willingness among governments to support the weakest households with fiscal measures. And as the European Commission has proposed extending the escape clause for the Stability and Growth Pact into 2023, not a lot of fiscal tightening should be expected for the time being. We still believe the second or the third quarter of this year might see negative growth. Thereafter, we think the growth pattern will be pretty much in 'muddlingthrough' mode. That should still result in 2.3% GDP growth in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023. Not a recession, but not exactly the roaring twenties either. And downside risk prevails. Both headline and core inflation continue to surpass expectations Source: Refinitiv Datastream Higher inflation expectations Barring a strong increase in natural gas prices amid fewer imports (or a stoppage of supply) from Russia, inflation is probably close to its peak. In May, headline inflation rose to 8.1%, with core inflation at 3.8%. We expect the decrease to be very gradual and it might take until the second half of 2023 before headline inflation falls back below 2%. At the same time, longerterm consumer inflation expectations have now seen an upward shift to 3% in the most recent survey, which explains why the ECB wants to get rates out of negative territory pretty soon. In an interview in Cinco Días, Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist, made it very clear that this should be a done deal by September. What happens afterwards will be data-dependent. We don’t think a wage-price spiral will develop, as in the most recent wage agreements the increase foreseen for 2023 is only 2.4%, below the 3% the ECB considers consistent with its 2% inflation objective. That said, we can imagine that the ECB will want to get a bit closer to the elusive “neutral interest rate”. Therefore we think the deposit rate will be raised to 0.25% by year-end, moving to 0.50% in 1Q 2023. Thereafter, a long period of 'wait-and-see' might follow. Source: The eurozone’s muddling through at best | Article | ING Think TagsInflation GDP Eurozone ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The European Central Bank has just announced its stopping net asset purchases by the end of the month and pre-announced two rate hikes of 25bp each in July and September. The door for 50bp in September is set wide open ECB President, Christine Lagarde and President of De Nederlandsche Bank, Klaas Knot in Amsterdam   The ECB definitely pre-commits. In its just-announced policy decisions, the European Central Bank has not only made the upcoming 2.30 pm CET press conference less interesting but also laid out a clear path for the normalisation of monetary policy in the eurozone. The only open question is actually why the ECB hasn't already hiked interest rates today but intends to wait for lift-off until the next meeting on 21 July. The ECB's press release also includes the latest staff projections, showing that inflation is now expected to come in at 6.8% in 2022, 3.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024. GDP growth is expected to come in at 2.8% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024. Stagflation is the word in the eurozone. What did the ECB decide? Net asset purchases will end as of 1 July Reinvestments of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme will continue at least until the end of 2024 and will remain the main instrument against a widening of yield spreads The policy rate remains unchanged, but the ECB announced it ‘intends’ to hike rates by 25bp in July and 25bp in September. The door for a rate hike of 50bp in September is wide open as the statement says, “If the medium-term inflation outlook persists or deteriorates, a larger increment will be appropriate at the September meeting.” Door open for 50bp in September With inflation running red hot but at the same time the eurozone economy slowing down and facing stagnation or even recession, the ECB’s window to normalise monetary policy has been narrowing almost by the day. Today’s decision shows it's managed to find a compromise between the doves and the hawks. A 50bp rate hike in July seemed to be fended off by opening the door for 50bp in September. The era of net asset purchases will come to an end in three weeks, and the era of negative interest rates will come to an end before the autumn. Simply put, the ECB just announced the end of a long era. Whether this will also be the start of a new era of continuously rising interest rates, however, is still far from certain. Read this article on THINK TagsMonetary policy Inflation Eurozone ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The US consumer price index accelerated by 8.6% in May from 8.3% a month earlier. The new data exceeded expectations, rebutting hopes that US inflation is already slowing. Today's inflation report is the last big release before the Fed meeting next Wednesday. A renewal of inflation to 40-year highs will surely attract the public's attention at the weekend and will pressure the Fed. Potentially, such high reading could trigger a tougher FOMC stance in the accompanying commentary. Recently, the Fed has been expected to raise rates by 50 points next week and hints of another such move in late July. However, with a strong labour market and persistently high inflation, there are increasing chances that more such double-sized rate hikes are required, which is speculatively good news for the dollar in the coming weeks. A separate issue is quantitative tightening. The Fed could also adjust its plans to sell assets off the balance sheet to tighten financial conditions in the country further. Proponents of such an approach point to the record amounts of excess liquidity that commercial banks are parking on central bank balance sheets. High inflation is bad news for the stock market because it will force the Fed to tighten the monetary policy screws even further. The Fed's open intention to suppress inflation creates risk-off market sentiment when the price growth remains high. In this environment, dollar-denominated money market assets become attractive because of higher yields. This is in stark contrast to last year when the Fed reassured us that everything would pass by itself, so investors preferred to sell dollars that were losing value.

As expected, euro buyers' optimism faded immediately after the ECB press conference began, returning EURUSD to a repeat of 1.0600. Shortly after the initial surge in reports of an actual reversal in ECB policy, investors and traders delved into assessments of how slower the policy reversal in Europe was. The ECB will only stop buying assets on its balance sheet later this month - two steps behind the US, where purchases were curtailed months ago and active sales are already due to begin in June. The Fed raised its rate by 25 points in March and 50 points at the start of May, promising two more 50-point hikes in June and July. From the ECB, we see a conditional promise to consider a rate hike of more than 25 points in September in case of high inflation forecasts for 2023. That said, inflation in the eurozone is comparable to the US, and economic growth is just as, if not more, vulnerable to logistical failures and energy prices. Not only has the ECB started its policy turnaround later, but it is also doing so more slowly than the Fed so that the interest rate differential only widens over time. Such differences are a fundamental reason to sell the euro against the dollar. Moreover, the EURUSD bounce in the second half of May erased the pair's oversold conditions, clearing the way for another step down. Yesterday's comments from the ECB convinced us not to expect any hawkish surprises from Lagarde and Co, triggering a new sell-off impulse. It won't be surprising if EURUSD makes another test of the May low at 1.0350 or if it makes a new 20-year low below that level during the next couple of weeks.

The Canadian dollar has extended its losses today. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2743, up 0.35% on the day. Thursday saw the US dollar gives its Canadian cousin a spanking, as USD/CAD jumped 1.13%, its highest daily gain this year. A rise in US Treasury yields helped boost the US dollar, as the 10-year yield remains above 3%. As well, US unemployment claims disappointed, rising to 229 thousand. This was higher than the previous release of 202 thousand and above the estimate of 210 thousand. The rise in claims was not massive, but nonetheless has fed into the market’s nervousness over the US economy, and the result was a drop in risk appetite which sent the Canadian dollar tumbling lower. It could be a busy end to the trading week, with Canada’s employment report and US inflation on today’s schedule. Canada’s job numbers for May are expected to be solid – the economy is projected to have created 30.0 thousand new jobs, up from 15.3 thousand in April. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 5.2%. All eyes on US inflation The highlight of the week will be US inflation for May. Headline inflation is expected at 8.3% (unchanged), while Core CPI is forecast to fall to 5.9%, down from 6.2%. If inflation does indeed drop, there will likely be voices proclaiming that the long-sought inflation peak is finally here. It would, however, be premature to assume that inflation is on a downswing based on one reading alone. Still, there is plenty of anticipation around the inflation release, such that it could be a binary outcome for USD/CAD – if inflation outperforms, Fed hiking expectations will rise. If, however, inflation drops, we could see a move to sell US dollars. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2703. Above, there is resistance at 1.2812 There is support at 1.2628 and 1.2519   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Markets eye Canadian job report, US inflation - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The global economy can now be characterised as one in which many central bankers are poised to hike rates more forcefully, even as growth prospects are being revised lower. Investors are now having to ask which economies can best withstand these tighter monetary conditions and which currency to back? During this summer of discontent the answer to these questions largely remains the US economy and the dollar. Unlike the supply-driven inflation suffered in Europe, price rises in the US are far more a function of demand-side factors and suggest stagflation is less of a likelihood in the US than in Europe. And with no end in sight to tight energy markets, the US remains better positioned here too. We expect the Fed to deliver at least another 175bp of hikes this year as the Fed drives real US interest rates into restrictive territory. This is not good news for global growth – but that is the point, the Fed needs to slow demand. Flatter yield curves consistent with the latter stages of the US business cycle are normally good news for the dollar. In all this means that the dollar should stay bid this summer (1.00/1.02 is possible in EUR/USD), while USD/JPY in the 135/140 region looks ready to trigger Japanese intervention. GBP/USD can move to the low 1.20s as the BoE cycle is repriced lower and the CHF should start to outperform in Europe as the SNB guides it higher. CEE FX has become more mixed. We still favour the PLN, but HUF and now CZK look more vulnerable. This will be a fragile environment for most EMFX – especially those most exposed to China. Here USD/CNY can still push higher taking most of $/Asia with it. Developed markets EUR/USD A long, hot summer for the euro Current spot: 1.0476 Both the Fed and the ECB are in hawkish mode – both battling inflation near 8%. Both are probably happy with stronger currencies. The difference is the stagflationary shock from the war in Ukraine which makes the ECB unlikely to deliver on the 150bp of tightening priced in. There is also the issue of growth differentials and what they mean for international equity flows. These could start generating some euro under-performance. EUR/USD looks biased towards the lower end of a 1.02-1.08 range this summer. It looks far too early to pick the top in the Fed cycle. Higher US real rates also spell trouble for risk assets, including EM in general. This will also lend further support to the dollar USD/JPY Official concern and stretched valuations may help JPY Current spot: 134.43 The combination of aggressive Fed tightening (we look for at least another 175bp of Fed rate hikes this year), high energy prices and BoJ dovishness has sent USD/JPY to 135. Japanese officials are now officially unhappy with the rapid pace of JPY weakness. Sensible arguments go that the BoJ cannot intervene to sell $/JPY since: a) markets are not disorderly and b) BoJ is still printing money with QQE. Yet intervention is political & one never knows whether deals get cut behind the scenes We cannot rule out USD/JPY marching towards 140 given that this is a fundamentally driven, but intervention signals are flashing amber/red. Traded USD/JPY volatility can rise further. GBP/USD Bank of England tightening expectations are extreme Current spot: 134.43 GBP/USD looks as though it can trade back down to the 1.21/22 levels – largely on the back of dollar strength. But certainly an Unexploded Bomb (UXB) for sterling is the incredibly aggressive 175bp of tightening priced into the BoE cycle for year-end. This seems very extreme given that not all the MPC were on board with May’s 25bp hike. The 16 June BoE meeting is an event risk. UK growth will struggle in 2Q, although there is increasing speculation over tax cuts coming through this Autumn – in a bid to shore up Conservative support ahead of a possible ‘23 election. We doubt a Tory leadership change or Brexit tension has too much impact on sterling – a lot of bad news is already priced. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more This article is a part of the report by ING: Source

It has been a rough spell for the Australian dollar, which has steadied after a four-day slide. This downswing saw AUD/USD plunge over 300 points and break below the symbolic 70 level. Market nerves weigh on the Australian dollar Ahead of today’s FOMC rate meeting, risk sentiment is nowhere to be found. The US inflation report and expectations that the Fed will remain very aggressive have raised fears of a recession in the US. This has allowed the US dollar to surge, especially against risk-related currencies like the Australian dollar. Back in early April, AUD/USD was trading close to the 0.76 line, but the Aussie has been hammered, with drops of some 400 points in April and May. With US inflation hitting a new 40-year high of 8.6%, some commentators are using the word “panic” to describe the financial markets. There are voices calling on the Fed to deliver a massive 0.75% hike at today’s meeting, though it would be a shock if the Fed did anything other than raise rates by 0.50%. Fed Chair Powell may use his press conference to hint at a 0.75% hike at a later date if inflation doesn’t start to fall soon, and such a message would likely boost the surging US dollar. With no sign of an inflation peak, it’s clear that the Federal Reserve will have to keep its foot pressed to the floor when it comes to upcoming rate hikes. This makes it likely that the Fed will deliver 50-bp hikes in June, July and September. Just a couple of weeks ago the Fed signalled it would take a break in September, but that now seems a luxury it can’t afford, given that inflation continues to accelerate. The Australian dollar didn’t get any relief from Australian releases, as NAB Business Confidence for May slowed for a second straight month, with a reading of 6 points, down from 10 previously. We’ll get a look at Westpac Consumer Confidence for June later today. The May reading came in at -5.6%, and another sharp loss could see the Aussie resume its downward movement. . AUD/USD Technical There is weak support at 0.6902, followed by support at 0.6765 There is resistance at 0.6973 and 0.7110   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its latest rate decision today, but most of the wild ride is certainly done by now; the market fully prices in a 75bp hike at today’s decision. The aggressive rise in hawkish Fed expectations pushed the US 2-year yield to 3.45% on Tuesday. The 10-year yield flirted with 3.50%. The S&P500 lost another 0.38%, while Nasdaq eked out a small 0.20% gain, but after hitting a fresh low since November 2020. The US futures are in the positive this morning, but the market will likely remain tense until the Fed breaks the news that it hikes by 75bp. The updated economic projections and the dot plot have an important weight for future expectations. Bigger rate hikes from the Fed, and the soaring US dollar are certainly not a gift for other central banks. The US dollar is a base currency, and the rapid appreciation in the greenback increases the cost of the goods that the other countries negotiate in terms of US dollars on international markets, starting from oil and commodities. As a result, a stronger US dollar is a bigger inflation threat for the world. This is why, the hawkish Fed expectations have a bigger domino effect power on the rest of the world. The German 10-year yield continues pushing higher, and the EURUSD sees a decent support near the 1.04 threshold after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced an unscheduled meeting to discuss the market turmoil. Cable slipped below the 1.20 mark, and a 25bp hike from the Bank of England (BoE) may not suffice to compensate the hawkish Fed, and the renewed Brexit fears.   Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 The Fed decision 4:26 Market update 5:32 Gold, Bitcoin down 6:43 FedEx jumps & dividend paying stocks see higher interest 7:41 Expensive dollar threatens ECB, BoE 8:52 FTSE to feel the pinch of engdangered Brexit deal Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #FOMC #decision #dotplot #ECB #unscheduled #meeting #BoE #USD #EUR #GBP #CHF #Bitcoin #MicroStrategy #crude #oil #gold #market #selloff #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  

Relevance up to 09:00 2022-06-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Details of the economic calendar from June 14 Data on the UK labor market came out worse than expected. The unemployment rate increased from 3.7% to 3.8%, while the forecast assumed a decline to 3.6%. Employment in the country rose by 177,000, while jobless claims fell less than expected. In general terms, the indicators for the UK labor market are not the best. Analysis of trading charts from June 14 The EURUSD currency pair has slowed down its downward movement in the area of 1.0400. This move has led to variable turmoil, with the downside sentiment remaining among market participants. On the trading chart of the daily period, there is a gradual recovery of the downward trend relative to the recent correction. The GBPUSD currency pair has accelerated the decline after the prolongation of the medium-term downward trend. The increase in the volume of short positions led to the weakening of the pound sterling towards the psychologically important level of 1.2000. The scale of decline for three trading days amounted to about 550 points.     Economic calendar for June 15 The results of the Fed meeting are at the center of everyone's attention, where, due to a sharp increase in the inflation rate, experts are revising forecasts for the interest rate hike. Based on the last meeting, the regulator planned to continue hanging the rate by 50 basis points. The market, in turn, is concerned about rising inflation and lays down a rate increase of 75 basis points at once, which has already affected the US dollar exchange rate. Time targeting Results of the Fed meeting - 18:00 UTC Fed press conference - 18:30 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 15 Price stagnation within 1.0400/1.0500 keeps speculators on itself for a while. It can be assumed that the current stop plays the role of the accumulation of trading forces in the forthcoming acceleration in the market. Based on the above range, the best trading tactic is the outgoing momentum method, which will indicate the subsequent price move. We concretize the above into trading signals: Buy positions on the currency pair are taken into account after holding the price above the value of 1.0500 in a four-hour period. Sell positions should be considered after holding the price below 1.0400 in a four-hour period.     Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 15 The area of psychological level 1.1950/1.2000/1.2050 puts pressure on sellers. This led to a reduction in the volume of short positions and, as a result, a local pullback. Taking into account the oversold status of the pound sterling, we can assume further formation of a correction if the price holds above 1.2050 in a four-hour period. At the same time, the high interest of traders in speculative positions allows blocking the technical signal about the pound being oversold. In this case, holding the price below the value of 1.1950 in a four-hour period will lead to the subsequent inertial movement. What is reflected in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313480

USD/CAD Loonie strength to extend into 2H22  Current spot: 1.2840 The loonie has been the best performing G10 currency in the past month (+3% vs USD), benefiting from a desirable combination of rising oil prices, limited exposure to main sources of global risks (Russia/Ukraine and China) and a hawkish domestic central bank. In our view, the USD/CAD downtrend has further to go, as the factors that have helped CAD strengthen of late should last into year-end. We target 1.22 in 4Q, with risks skewed to 1.20. However, in the shorter term, some temporary spikes back to 1.29-1.30 can’t be excluded given the unstable risk environment. Given Canada’s strong domestic economic performance and high inflation, we expect 50bp hikes by the BoC in July and September. We estimate the BoC’s terminal rate 50bp above the Fed’s. AUD/USD Still looking unattractive Current spot: 0.6994 We remain of the view that the Australian dollar is the commodity currency with the least attractive outlook for the remainder of the year. The RBA has surprised with a 50bp rate hike in June, but a) AUD has been quite detached from domestic monetary policy developments and b) markets are pricing in too much tightening (285bp in the next 12 months) considering the inflation picture in Australia is less worrying than in the US or the eurozone. External risks remain significant, especially from China’s economic slowdown and potential spill-over into the iron ore market. We see a drop below 0.70 in the near-term, and a return to 0.72 only in 4Q22. NZD/USD A safer option than AUD? Current spot: 0.6313 The Kiwi dollar is also set to be negatively impacted by the clouded outlook for the Chinese economy. However, New Zealand’s exports are not as reliant on China as Australia’s. Incidentally, inflation is higher and appears more entrenched into the NZ economy than in Australia, which suggests the RBNZ will remain more hawkish for longer. We expect the RBNZ to bring rates to 3.5% at the start of 2023, potentially earlier should housing inflation prove sticky. In our view, all this should lead AUD/NZD to slip back to 1.07-1.09 in 2H22, and NZD/USD to climb to the 0.69 mark towards the end of the year, benefiting from some potential USD weakness. Emerging markets EUR/PLN NBP hikes call for further PLN gains Current spot: 4.6252 The National Bank of Poland's policy tightening will be much stronger than either the Fed’s or the ECB’s. This justifies further appreciation of the zloty, especially as market tensions related to the war are clearly easing. Moreover, comments from the EC point to the imminent launch of the Recovery Fund (actual flows may start as soon as in September but will not be large). This will provide some support for the zloty, as EU funds will be exchanged on the open FX market, not off-market via the NBP. We expect €/PLN to reach 4.50 or slightly below by the end of the year. In 2023, the appreciation of the zloty should continue, driven by high NBP rates and inflow of EU money, even below 4.40 in 4Q23. We see the policy rate heading to 8.5% into 2023. EUR/HUF Too many burdens for the forint to shine Current spot: 397.44 The forint took a major blow after the government announced new fiscal measures and the situation was not helped by the NBH raising rates by "only" 75bp. HUF is still our least preferred currency in the CEE region, but on the other hand it still has the greatest potential for appreciation. In the short term, we see EUR/HUF around 395 with a possible quick move to 385 if any of the external factors (war, rule of law debate, etc) show early signs of improvement, which would reduce the risk premium. EUR/CZK FX intervention as new standard Current spot: 24.71 The appointment of new Czech National Bank board members has made the situation a little clearer. However, regardless of the board's view, we think that more CNB activity in the FX market is inevitable in 2H22. The CNB does not comment on FX interventions, but our estimates are that it has been more and more active recently and we continue to believe that the EUR/CZK 25 level is a key pain threshold. With inflation rising, we believe they will gradually move down to 24.70-24.90 levels. However, we do not see much reason for CZK to appreciate without CNB intervention. Therefore, we expect it to remain relatively stable. EUR/RON Business as usual still Current spot: 4.9463 The 4.95 level remains untouchable for the moment, with strong offers in the 4.9480-4.9500 range taming any upward pressure. We expect another 75bp hike from NBR in July to bring the key rate at 4.50%. Inflation continued to surprise to the upside and will most likely exceed 15.0% in June. This should be the peak but the road to lower levels will be very gradual. The liquidity shortage remained ample in May, at over RON12bn. This continues to keep market rates very much decoupled from the NBR’s key rate and even from the credit facility. We maintain our 5.50% estimate for the terminal key rate, but upside risks are building again. EUR/HRK On autopilot until 1 January 2023 Current spot: 7.5225 In the 2022 Convergence Report issued on 1 June, the European Commission and the ECB have concluded that Croatia is ready to adopt the euro on 1 January 2023. The decision was largely expected. The Convergence report shows that Croatia meets the nominal convergence criteria. The final decision on euro adoption -which at this point seems only a formal one – will be taken by the EU Council in the first half of July. The FX rate at which the euro adoption will take place will likely be very close to the 7.5345 central parity rate at which Croatia was included in the ERM-II. EUR/RSD Increased – but still limited – flexibility Current spot: 117.42 After selling EUR1.17bn in March – an historically high amount, the NBS reduced its selling to only EUR155m in April. The trend has reversed in May when the NBS intervened by buying euros. Somewhat surprisingly but fully explainable by the inflation dynamics, the NBS has allowed the dinar to appreciate mildly in May towards 117.4 area. This might signal that the FX rate could be used in-sync with the interest rates to tame inflationary pressures. The 50bp rate hike pace continued in June, bringing the key rate to 2.50%. We maintain our estimate for the key rate to reach 3.50% by the end of 2022. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The British pound is in positive territory on Wednesday. This follows an abysmal 5-day slide which saw the pound fall as much as 600 points. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2060, up 0.53% on the day. FOMC expected to deliver 75-bp salvo All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC rate decision later today. The Fed is clearly under pressure as inflation surges with no peak in sight – CPI accelerated to 8.6% in April, up from 8.3% in March. This was the highest inflation rate since 1981. The Fed’s aggressive stance may shift into overdrive, with a 75-bp hike priced in by the markets at almost 100%. Just a few days ago, the most likely scenario was a 50-bps increase, but hawkish winds are blowing, and a 75-bp move will likely elicit a sharp response from the financial markets. Investors will also be closely monitoring the rate statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. I would not be surprised to see the US dollar cash in with strong gains following today’s meeting. The Fed finds itself in a tough spot as it struggles to combat inflationary pressures, which are now more than four times higher than the Fed’s inflation target of 2 per cent. The price for the Fed’s aggressive rate-hike cycle could well be a recession, but Fed policy makers clearly prefer a (hopefully) short recession rather than inflation expectations becoming unanchored. The big question is will the Fed manage to guide the US economy to a soft landing as it continues to aggressively raise rates. BoE expected to hike by 25bp After the Fed is done, attention will shift to the Bank of England, which holds its policy meeting on Thursday. The likely scenario is that the cautious BoE will raise rates by a modest 25 bps, but we could see a larger hike if the Fed is overly hawkish at its meeting. With unemployment in the UK at a low level of 3.7%, the BoE has room to be more aggressive with its monetary policy. As for the British pound, a 0.25% hike won’t be of much help. If the BoE surprises with a larger rate increase, the pound would likely respond with gains. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2108 and 1.2215 There is support at 1.1916. This is followed by 1.1772, a major support level. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

NZD/USD is in positive territory on Wednesday, after an extended slide. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6244, up 0.46% on the day. The New Zealand dollar received a boost today from an unexpected source, the European Central Bank. In a surprise move, the ECB held an emergency meeting earlier in the day and announced a new tool to combat the risk of eurozone fragmentation. The meeting was in response to rising yields in highly indebted countries, such as Italy and Greece, which has sparked fears of a debt crisis. After the announcement, yields on Italian and Greek bonds fell, sparking stronger risk appetite and pushing the New Zealand dollar higher. Markets brace for 0.75% hike from Fed This week’s highlight is the FOMC rate decision later today. The Fed is under pressure as red-hot inflation shows no signs of easing. CPI accelerated to 8.6% in April, up from 8.3% in March. This was the highest inflation rate since 1981. Just a few days ago, the most likely scenario was a 50-bps increase, but the markets are now pricing in (at almost 100%) a 0.75% hike. This will likely result in a sharp response from the financial markets. A massive 0.75% move, even one that has been priced in, should be bullish for the US dollar. Investors will also be closely monitoring the rate statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. The price for the Fed’s aggressive rate-tightening cycle could well be a recession, but Fed policy makers clearly prefer a (hopefully) short recession rather than inflation expectations becoming unanchored. The big question is will the Fed manage to guide the US economy to a soft landing as it continues to aggressively raise rates. New Zealand releases first-quarter GDP on Wednesday, with the markets expecting a modest gain of 0.6% QoQ. This follows a 3.0% gain in Q4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be keeping a close eye on the strength of the economy, as the Bank tries to steer the economy to a soft landing while raising interest rates. The FOMC rate announcement will likely overshadow the GDP release and play the pied piper for NZD/USD movement. . NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6224. Next, there is resistance at 0.6288 There is support at 0.6099 and 0.5947 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. New Zealand dollar fights back - MarketPulseMarketPulse

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the emergency ECB meeting and preview the upcoming Fed, BoJ and BoE monetary policy decisions. https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/oanda-market-insights/id1358715867?mt=2 https://subscribeonandroid.com/audioboom.com/channels/4947364.rss This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Source: Market Insights Podcast (Episode 341) - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Summary:  Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the tremendously important event risks set for the balance of this week, with a sudden emergency ECB meeting cropping up on today's schedule, the FOMC set for a likely super-size hike tonight, but is the market really prepared? Finally, and potentially most important for the risk of cross-market contagion, the Bank of Japan is set to meet on Friday and the market has thrown down the gauntlet and is already actively challenging the bank's yield-curve-control policy with heavy selling of JGB futures ahead of that meeting. All of this while cratering crypto markets are aggravating risk sentiment at least at the margin. Helmets on, as this could prove an historic week. Today's pod also features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are also located via this link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Three days that could shake the world | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  The equity market is not prepared for a 75 basis points rate hike tonight by the FOMC judging from retail investors behaviour over the past week. The buy-the-dip mentality and hopes of a V-shaped recovery are so ingrained after a decade of relentlessly higher equities interrupted a few times by a quick recovery, that the tightening of financial conditions will come as a shock. Bank of Japan will also be forced to reconsider its yield-curve-control policy and if BoJ pivots then a hidden force might be unleashed as Japanese investors might move into selling mode on its foreign assets. Bank of Japan decision could unleash selling of foreign assets Today at 1800 GMT the FOMC could surprise the majority of economists with a 75 basis points rate hike as between the lines leaked in the Wall Street Journal yesterday (perceived to be the primary source for the Fed to leak information). The market has already priced in a 75 basis points rate hike with a 90% probability so if the FOMC wants to be in line with the market and retain its credibility it must follow through. Despite the Fed Funds Rate futures are pricing in a 75 basis points rate hike the equity market in particularly is not prepared. We still observe a high degree of complacency among retail investors still exhibiting buy-the-dip mentally and that things will soon normalize. They are in for reckoning. One thing is the Fed’s need to move fast but even more importantly other central banks such as BoE, ECB, and BoJ must change cause or else creating a far bigger problem down the road. Maintaining a too loose monetary policy vs the Fed will weaken the GBP, EUR, and JPY against the USD importing even more inflation as the world’s natural ressources are priced in USD. Bank of Japan is probably the central bank with most at stake and Kuroda has fought hard to maintain its yield-curve-control (YCC) with its 25 basis points upper limit on the Japanese 10-year yield. The policy is becoming to costly now for Japan that import too much inflation due to its weaker currency (see chart) and weakening the credibility of BoJ. If BoJ breaks away from its YCC policy then a hidden force will be unleashed. Japan has a large net international investment position (NIIP) which has risen dramatically since 2017 which was introduced in September 2016 reaching 70.7% of GDP by September 2021 up from 59.5% in 2017. These foreign assets represent $3.4trn. If Bank of Japan pivots on its monetary policy we could see a large reversal of the JPY which in theory could increase the propensity of Japanese investors to sell their foreign assets. Japanese investors have recently been the main source of selling in Danish mortgage bonds suggesting some “smart” investors are anticipating the death of the YCC policy. An eventual policy pivot by Bank of Japan could unleash large selling pressure in USD and EUR assets, so Friday’s rate decision in Bank of Japan is crucial to monitor for investors. USDJPY | Source: Saxo Group Is the market even prepared for what is coming? In many ways it feels surreal to observe market behaviour and pricing across certain pockets given the policy trajectory from the Fed and the already now visible cracks the current tightening of financial conditions have already caused. Asking prices on houses are coming down in several countries and companies are freezing hiring. Meanwhile sell-side analysts have a 12-month forward EPS estimate on S&P 500 of $236.84 implying an EPS growth of 18.4% over the next 12 months. It just makes no sense at all. The dividend futures market which prices expected dividends is pricing future profitability and here we observe a 6% decline in S&P 500 dividends in 2023 from the peak last year responding to margin pressure that we observed in the Q1 earnings releases. But is 6% decline in dividends even enough? It reflects of course that energy companies will likely increase dividends to attract capital and investors, but the pricing seems a bit off relative to much tighter financial conditions expected over the coming 12 months. S&P 500 earnings estimate S&P 500 dividend futures Dec23 | Source: Bloomberg Source: A hidden force could soon be released dividend futures live in la-la land | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Relevance up to 20:00 2022-06-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   The short-term outlook turned bearish when the market went below 1.3600. This enhanced the bearish side of the market initially towards 1.3360 then 1.3200 which initiated a temporary bullish movement towards 1.3600 for a final re-test. The price level of 1.3600 corresponding to the upper limit of the ongoing bearish channel initiated an aggressive bearish movement towards 1.2980 - 1.3000. The price level of 1.3000 stood a transient Support where a short-term consolidation movement existed. This happened just before two successive bearish dips could take place towards 1.2550 and 1.2160. Considerable bullish rejection was expressed around 1.2200. However, the pair failed to persist above 1.2550. This was needed to abolish the short-term bullish scenario for sometime. Instead, a quick bullish movement was executed towards 1.2650 where extensive bearish rejection existed. The GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the new low around 1.2150 again which was recently bypassed. Price action around the current price levels of 1.2000 should be watched for a possible intraday BUY entry. Otherwise, further bearish continuation may pursue towards 1.1750 if sufficient bearish momentum is maintained Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280271

Relevance up to 20:00 2022-06-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. In late September, Re-closure below the price level of 1.1700 has initiated downside-movement towards 1.1500 where some bullish recovery was witnessed. Shortly after, another price decline took place towards 1.1200. Then the EURUSD has temporarily moved-up within the depicted movement channel until downside breakout occurred. The EURUSD looked oversold while approaching the price levels of 1.0800. That's when an upside movement was initiated towards 1.1200. This recent movement towards 1.1200 was suggested for another SELL opportunity which already reached its targets. The previous ascending movement above 1.0600 enabled further advancement towards 1.0800 where evident bearish rejection could be applied. On the other hand, the pair remains under selling pressure to re-visit the new daily low around 1.0350 where price action should be watched.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280273

B2Core has now been integrated with Shufti Pro, a prominent AI-powered identity verification solution. We wanted to make the identity verification process for our clients faster and more straightforward than ever. That's why B2Core and Shufti Pro have teamed up to provide advanced, fully automated technology to protect clients while onboarding legitimate new users. By collaborating, B2Core and Shufti Pro can offer all users a safer and more secure verification experience! Shufti Pro is a renowned KYC provider that offers high-quality and quick verification services. To use Shufti Pro, all our clients have to do is go to their profile settings, click on the verification page, and then send their ID papers, such as passport and photo. Shufti Pro will use its technology to instantly authenticate the documents, decreasing fraudulent activities and improving the customer journey. All you need is less than 30 seconds, and you are ready to go! What is Shufti Pro? Shufti Pro is a SaaS (Software as a Service) firm that helps organizations authenticate their end-users with completely automated KYC (Know Your Customer) solutions. Face verification, document verification, video-interview KYC, address verification, 2-factor authentication, consent verification, and biometric sign-in using facial recognition are among Shufti Pro's services. Its services are available to businesses of all kinds in over 230 countries and territories, and it supports over 150 languages. Shufti Pro offers a single API that is easy to integrate with any existing system and multi-layered risk cover against digital identity fraud, money laundering, and terrorist financing. Moreover, Individuals and organizations are screened against 1700+ watchlists by Shufti Pro's AML screening services, making it a complete solution for avoiding financial crime. Shufti Pro is a fast and simple option for organizations wishing to optimize their client onboarding process because all verifications take less than 30 seconds. Shufti Pro is the only firm in the industry that offers huge worldwide organizations, such as payment gateways and banks, not just SaaS but also on-premises solutions. So If you are looking for a fully automated KYC solution to verify your end-users, look no further than Shufti Pro. Finale At B2Broker, we are always striving to provide the best possible service for our clients. Whether it's expanding our offerings or streamlining existing processes, we want to make sure that we are always meeting your needs. That's why we're excited to introduce our new KYC service. This service is designed to simplify the onboarding process and make it more efficient. We hope that you will take advantage of this service to make your experience with B2Broker even better. Thank you for choosing us as your trusted partner in Forex and cryptocurrency services! Please contact us if you have any queries or thoughts regarding our KYC service.

The Japanese yen continues to post strong swings this week and is up sharply on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 134.67 in Europe, up 1.86% on the day. BoJ maintains yield curve control It’s been a busy week, with the markets still digesting some dramatic moves by central banks. The Fed and SNB delivered massive salvos in their fight against inflation, and the BoE continues to tighten, albeit at a more modest pace. The week wrapped up with the Bank of Japan policy decision earlier in the day. These meetings are usually on the dull side, with the central bank merely reaffirming its ultra-loose policy, with the occasional tweak. Today’s meeting was closely watched, however, as the BOJ’s yield curve stance has been under pressure and there was speculation that the BoJ might retreat and release the cap of 0.25% on 10-year JGBs. In the end, the BoJ did not blink or budge, maintaining its policy for yield curve control and QE. The BOJ reaffirmed it will continue its policy of rock-bottom rates, even though other major central banks are tightening policy, as we saw this week with the Fed, BOE and SNB. Governor Kuroda has insisted that monetary easing remain in place, given Japan’s slow recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. With inflation barely at 2%, the central bank’s target, Kuroda can afford to continue his loose policy and tenaciously defend the BoJ’s yield curve. The BoJ didn’t adjust policy today but it was noteworthy that the policy statement added the exchange rate to its list of risks, something we haven’t seen in previous statements. The yen hit a 24-year low at 135.60 earlier this week and could fall even further. The Bank is sending a message that it is monitoring the exchange rate, but I question whether this will deter the markets from continuing to test the yen – previous jawboning from the BoJ and Ministry of Finance didn’t succeed in stemming the yen’s slide, and we could well be on our way to a 140 yen if the US/Japan rate differential continues to widen. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is testing resistance at 133.14. Above, there is resistance at 1.3585 There is support at 131.72 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Yen falls back down after BoJ balks - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Relevance up to 12:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical outlook: AUDUSD rose through the 0.7070 mark on Thursday before finding resistance. The currency pair is pulling back and is seen to be trading close to the 0.6995 mark at this point of writing. Also note that prices have confirmed a huge Engulfing Bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart after bouncing from the 0.6850 low early this week. AUDUSD bulls will be poised to hold prices above 0.6850 to remain in control and push at least towards the 0.7450 level going forward. The currency pair seems to be unfolding a corrective rally, which might terminate above 0.7275 before reversing lower again. Immediate price resistance is seen towards the 0.7660 mark and a break is required to confirm a change in the larger degree trend. AUDUSD is working on a meaningful downswing between the 0.7660 and 0.6830 levels for now. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the above drop is seen through the 0.7345 mark as projected on the daily chart. The currency is expected to face formidable resistance as prices attempt to push through that mark going forward. Trading plan: Potential rally through 0.7300-400 against 0.6800 Good luck!   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280625

Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical outlook: Gold prices rose through $1857 highs before finding resistance late during the New York Session on Thursday. The yellow metal is seen to be trading around the $1846 mark at this point in writing and is expected to find support close to $1830 intraday. Bulls will be poised to resume higher thereafter and hold prices above $1805 interim lows. Gold prices are broadly within a counter-trend rally since the $1,786 low registered in May 2022. The precious metal has successfully terminated the first and second waves around $1,880 and $1,805 respectively. If the above structure holds well, prices are on their way towards $1920 going forward. Gold prices might encounter intraday support around the $1,830 mark, in line with the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of its lower degree upswing between $1,815 and $1,857. Notably, the metal is working on a larger degree downswing between $1,998 and $1,786 and the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement is seen towards $1,920 as well. There is a high probability of a bearish turn thereafter. Trading plan: Potential rally through $1920 against $1781 Good luck!   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280627

USDCHF breaks supportThe Swiss franc soared after the SNB delivered a surprise 50-basis-point rate hike. The dollar came to a halt at May’s peak at 1.0050. A bearish divergence indicated a slowdown in the upward momentum. Then a fall below the base of the latest rebound at 0.9880 acted as a confirmation of a correction. Heightened volatility suggests that short-term buyers have bailed out and a break below 0.9780 further weighs on sentiment. 0.9550 is a critical floor to keep June’s rally intact. The bulls need to clear 0.9820 first to ease the pressure. GBPUSD attempts to reboundThe pound rallied after the BoE raised its interest rates to 1.25%. A surge above 1.2200 has forced sellers to cover their positions, paving the way for a sharp rebound. A combination of profit-taking and momentum buying is propelling Sterling to the supply zone around 1.2500. Strong selling pressure could be expected though as the medium-term trend remains bearish. An overbought RSI may trigger a limited pullback as intraday traders take profit. 1.2050 at the origin of the rally is a major support should this happen. SPX 500 falls into bearish trendThe S&P 500 struggles as the FOMC anticipates an economic downturn. A fall below the daily support at 3840 which has turned into a resistance might confirm the bear market. Sellers would continue to fade rebounds as sentiment deteriorates. The RSI’s dip into the oversold area may prompt some short-term sellers to cover. But unless the buy side manages to lift offers around 3840, the index could be vulnerable to a new round of sell-off. 3550 from November 2020 would be the next target.

Summary:  The Bank of Japan continues to swim against the stream of global central bank tightening as it maintained course overnight with its policy mix of negative yields and yield-curve-control, triggering a wave of fresh JPY weakening that was only moderated slightly by a sharp drop in US treasury yields. Elsewhere, the Swiss franc remains firm after the SNB-inspired spike and sterling is taking a stand after the Bank of England meeting yesterday. FX Trading focus: BoJ not for turning, GBP takes a stand. USD status check. The Bank of Japan refused to budge overnight, standing pat on its policy of yield-curve-control and announcing daily operations in the bond market to defend the policy, with no guidance suggesting a change of course, though a brief comment on foreign exchange was inserted into the policy statement: Concerning risks to the outlook, there remain extremely high uncertainties for Japan's economy, including the course of COVID-19 at home and abroad and its impact, developments in the situation surrounding Ukraine, and developments in commodity prices and overseas economies. In this situation, it is necessary to pay due attention to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan's economic activity and prices. That suggests that there is some level of JPY weakness at which the Bank of Japan may be forced to revisit its policy commitments, but that we aren’t there yet. Two key points to make in the wake of this announcement: first, additional JPY weakness from here is likely only a function of global yields continuing to trend higher, something we did not at all see yesterday as a weak batch of US data drove a strong rally in US treasuries and punched the US 10-year benchmark yield back toward the pivotal 3.20% area. Second is the CNHJPY rate, which has traded north of 20.00 in the wake of this BoJ meeting and whether China is set to make another move to prevent further JPY weakness relative to the renminbi after it appeared that the threat of the 20.00 level prompted China to weaken CNH sharply relative to the US dollar after a long period of stagnant USDCNH price action just at the point when CNHJPY hit 20.00 back in April. Elsewhere, we continue to digest the repercussions of the Swiss National Bank 0-basis point rate hike, which continues to reverberate. While the Bank of Japan pulls in the opposite direction as a country that is willing to risk further deterioration in the real value of its currency, the SNB has done the opposite with this move, allowing itself to front-run the ECB and establishing the franc’s purchasing power as a key consideration and going a long way to buying real yield credibility. Looking ahead, the concern will likely arise as the cycle plays out that the Fed simply can’t raise rates sufficiently drive solidly positive US real yields. USDCHF has suffered a complete derailing of the former up-trend as discussed in the chart below and when looking at the USD versus European currencies, at least, from SEK and GBP to CHF and EUR, we could suddenly be at a turning point here. Where is that turning point “confirmed”? We are already there in USDCHF, but a broader, at least tactical turn lower in the USD would require a pull higher and close above 1.0600 in EURUSD and perhaps 1.2500 in GBPUSD (the day after I thought GBPUSD might be in danger of a meltdown below 1.2000 on the small BoE hike…). Until then, the USD sell-off may be a one-off result of titanic USDCHF flows on the SNB decision. Chart: USDCHFThe bulls found their case broken all in one go in the wake of the SNB meeting, as USDCHF has been crushed seemingly irrevocably lower, suddenly creating a double-top formation. But the huge brushback may not yet lead significantly lower unless the USD is capitulating elsewhere (levels for other major USD pairs noted above) and the full break down here requires a capitulation down through the 0.9545 low and the old range highs below 0.9475. Source: Saxo Group Sterling rallied hard yesterday in the wake of the Bank of England meeting yesterday, with UK rates and the currency focusing more on the hawkish guidance the meeting produced rather than due to the small 25-basis point hike. The bank said it would react “forcefully” if inflation doesn’t develop as hoped (which will take some doing – the Bank of England expecting the CPI to hit north of 11.0% before falling back after October) which suggests the willingness to hike by 50 basis points even if the economic outlook is not promising. The price action post-BoE took GBPUSD well away from the cycle lows of 1.2000 posted earlier this week, trading as high as 1.2406 late yesterday, just above a major local 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off at 1.2387 and far above the prior low-water mark from May of 1.2156. As noted above, a full reversal in GBPUSD requires another rally surge through 1.2500, while the bears will only feel comfortable here again if the price action punches back down through 1.2200. Elsewhere, sterling hopefuls should have a look at EURGBP, where the latest leg higher above 0.8600 has been sharply reversed, carving out a more well-defined reversal. Watching the 0.8500 area for whether we follow through lower and back into the range extending below 0.8300 again there. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength. The JPY is reversing sharply back lower after last night’s BoJ – note the huge new momentum in CHF, while sterling is trying to shift out of negative territory in broad terms. CAD looks very heavy. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Interesting to note sterling pushing back and trying to flip to a positive trend against not only JPY, but also AUD and CAD here. Elsewhere, watching 1.3000 on the USDCAD and noting AUDCAD rolling over – is CAD in for a broader drubbing? Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1200 – Poland May Core CPI 1230 – Canada May Teranet/National Bank Home Price Index 1245 – US Fed Chair Powell to make opening remarks at a conference 1315 – US May Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization 1430 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Pill to speak Source: FX Update: BoJ not for turning. GBP takes a stand. | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  The Bank of Japan continues to swim against the stream as it insisted on maintaining its yield-curve-control and negative policy rate at the meeting overnight, with daily operations to defend the yield cap on Japanese government bonds. Elsewhere, US equity markets continued to new lows even as US treasuries found strong support as a batch of weak US data points raises concerns on the US economic outlook.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures fully reversed and more the FOMC pump with S&P 500 futures closing at the 3,671 level yesterday down 3.2%, while technology stocks fell even more. The current drawdown is now the second deepest at the same time into the drawdown compared to previous historical drawdowns underscoring the seriousness of the current market regime. Initial jobless claims weakened yesterday, and the Philly Fed survey showed significant downward pressure on new orders hitting levels typical of recessions. The fear of recession could short-term keep a lid on interest rates and thus ironically support equities and maybe cause a mild rebound over the coming weeks. The VIX forward curve remains well behaved suggesting no panic yet in US equities. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) The indices were up more than 1% despite ugly selloffs in overseas markets overnight. The fall in property prices in the top 70 cities slowed to -0.2% m/m vs April -0.3%.  Property prices in Tier-1 cities rose 0.4% m/m and the declines in Tier-2 and lower-tier cities moderated. On the other hand, JD.COM’s (09618) JD Retail CEO told Bloomberg that recovery in consumption in China had been slow from the reopening of cities, such as Shanghai. The Company was expecting that it would take a long time for household consumption to recover as the economy and household income had been severely hit over this wave of lockdown. EURGBP and GBPUSD Sterling rallied hard yesterday in the wake of the Bank of England meeting yesterday on the guidance the meeting produced rather than due to the smaller 25-basis point hike. its reversal yesterday took GBPUSD well away from the cycle lows of 1.2000 posted earlier this week, trading as high as 1.2406 late yesterday, just above a major local 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off at 1.2387 and far above the prior low-water mark from May of 1.2156. A full reversal in GBPUSD requires another rally surge through 1.2500. Elsewhere, sterling hopefuls should have a look at EURGBP, where the latest leg higher above 0.8600 has been sharply reversed, suggesting a more well-defined reversal. Watching the 0.8500 area for whether we follow through lower and back into the range extending below 0.8300 again. USDJPY and JPY pairs With the Bank of Japan voting 8-1 to maintain course and the 0.25% cap on 10-year JGB yields, the JPY weakened sharply after a bout of speculation this week that Governor Kuroda and company might relent on its policy and bring a sharp resetting of the JPY higher. In the background, ironically, a powerful rally in global bonds yesterday was a JPY-supportive development that has eased the JPY-negative impact of the overnight BoJ decision. The BoJ statement did say that the Bank needs to pay attention to the FX level, from which one might infer that there is a JPY weakness level that the BoJ would find unacceptable and could prompt a change of course in the future. From here, the only route to a higher JPY is via a new drop in bond yields and shift away from CB tightening elsewhere or if the Bank of Japan is seen as giving up on its policy at a later date, possibly on coming inflation releases and risks of a weaker JPY raising the cost of living to an unacceptable degree. Crude oil (OILUKAUG22 & OILUSJUL22) Crude oil is heading for its first weekly decline in six with global growth concerns and prolonged lockdowns in China being the main catalyst. On top of that the short-term technical outlook has weakened following several failed attempts to break higher, but given the tight supply outlook, highlighted by the IEA earlier in the week. Support in Brent is likely to emerge already between $116 and $113.25. NY Harbor Diesel (HOc1) and gasoil (GASOILUKJUL22) both trades higher on the week, a reflection of the tightness that despite growth concerns, is likely to keep the energy sector supported.  Gold (XAUUSD)  Gold remains rangebound following a two-day rally that was supported by US growth concerns and a continued rout in cryptos and global stock markets. Together with another dose of weak U.S. data (see below) they helped send US treasury yields and the dollar lower on Thursday, thereby easing some of the recent pressure on bullion.  Total holdings in bullion-backed ETFs have declined by less than 0.25% this past week, a strong sign that investors look to gold for protection against the rout in global markets, together with increased focus on the need to hedge against the risk of stagflation.  On a relative basis gold’s year-to-date outperformance against the S&P 500 has reached 24%, long-end bonds 26% and 75% against blockchain (BKCH:arcx). US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasuries rallied hard yesterday amidst ugly sentiment in the equity market and on a set of weak US data points pointing to a decelerating housing sector (more below), with weekly jobless claims remaining near the highs of the last few months. The US 10-year treasury yield has declined back to the pivotal area around 3.20%, which was the cycle high before the latest surge toward 3.50%. An extension of the rally that takes yields significantly back below that 3.20% mark would suggest that we have reached a cycle peak for now and further consolidation is set to follow, perhaps on concerns for an incoming recession. What is going on? Bank of Japan defies the global tightening wave The Bank of Japan maintained the negative 0.10% policy rate today, confirming that it won't join the Federal Reserve and other major global central banks in tightening monetary policy. The Japanese central bank will keep its target for the 10-year Japanese government-bond yield at+0.25% and announced daily operations to ensure the cap on yields is maintained. While the central bank said we will take additional easing measures without hesitation if needed, there was a rare reference to the yen weakness. Swiss National Bank surprises with 50 basis point hike yesterday The Swiss National Bank, according to surveys, was not expected to hike rates yesterday, though a rapidly growing minority of observers were looking for a rate rise. The hike of 50 basis points brought the policy rate to –0.25% and makes it clear that the SNB is happy to separate itself from ECB policy and allow the CHF to strengthen as one of the tools to combat rising inflation risks in the country. EURCHF sold off below 1.0200 after trading above 1.0400 ahead of the decision. USDCHF slid to lows of 0.9632 from above parity the day before the decision. The Bank of England hikes 25 basis points, sharpens forward guidance language The majority of observers were looking for the 25-basis point move from the BoE, with some residual uncertainty on whether the bank might hike by more due to the large Fed rate hike this week and the weakness in sterling. Three MPC members of the nine voting wanted a 50-bp hike. At the same time, the BoE predicted that CPI would peak slightly above 11% in October, said that it would respond “forcefully” on any signs of worsening inflation, language that kept the short end of the UK yield curve pinned near the cycle highs. China centric commodities remain under pressure China centric commodities such as iron ore SCON2), coal and copper (COPPERUSSEP22) remain under pressure after China advised its covid restrictions probably won’t ease until next year. In addition, the recent spate of weaker than expected economic US data combined with central banks stepping up their fight to combat inflation have raised concerns about the outlook for global growth in general. US economic indicators weaken US building permits and housing starts eased in May to 1.695mn and 1.549mn respectively while the initial jobless claims were at 229k versus 217k expected. Further, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey printed a negative figure of -3.3 for June, the first such contraction since May 2020. More so, the future activity index was contractionary for the first time since the GFC. Adobe shares slip 5% in extended trading on revenue outlook miss As we highlighted on our podcast yesterday Adobe’s earnings were a test of business investment in marketing and content activities. While the business remains sticky the company put out a revenue outlook at $17.7bn vs est. $17.9bn due some demand weakness, Russia impact and USD headwinds.   What are we watching next? US recession concerns rising The mix of data this week generally raises concerns that the US economy is decelerating, but the evidence is patchy and will need confirmation for this to become a a more entrenched theme. At the same time, equity traders have to figure out whether they should celebrate weak data as something that will eventually lead US yields lower and see the pace of Fed tightening eventually reversing or fret weak data because of the implications for corporate profits. The next US data points of interesting include the preliminary Services and Manufacturing PMI surveys for June next week. Fed blackout period ending The Fed speakers will be back in action as the blackout period ends. Chair Powell is speaking later today at the inaugural conference on the International Roles of the US Dollar. Other Fed speakers are due as well including Esther George who voted for a 50bps rate hike this week. Earnings Watch Next week’s earnings calendar is light but there are three important earnings releases to watch and those are Lennar, FedEx, and Accenture that all will give insights into the US housing market, logistics, and recruitment dynamics. Monday: Kanzhun Tuesday: Lennar Thursday: FedEx, Accenture, Darden Restaurants, FactSet Friday: Carnival, China Gas, CarMax Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Eurozone May Final CPI 1200 – Poland May Core CPI 1230 – Canada May Teranet/National Bank Home Price Index 1245 – US Fed Chair Powell to make opening remarks at a conference 1315 – US May Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization 1430 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Pill to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – June 17, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Relevance up to 11:00 2022-06-19 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. EUR/USD     Higher timeframes Bulls are still trying to limit the current decline, so they continue to insist on the continuation of the rise and the restoration of positions. For this event to be a success and further prospects in the near future, it is necessary to overcome the resistance of the daily Ichimoku cross (1.0516 – 1.0568 – 1.0620 ), two resistances of the higher timeframes (1.0539 – 1.0643) and gain a foothold in the Ichimoku cloud (1.0568). The failure of the bulls may let bears resume the downward trend (1.0339–49).     H4 – H1 Yesterday's corrective movement managed to overcome the resistance of key levels. As a result, the advantage in the lower timeframes shifted to the side of the bulls. The key levels, located at the boundaries of 1.0510 (the central pivot point of the day) and 1.0466 (the weekly long-term trend), serve as supports and are currently trying to defend the interests of the bulls. If this succeeds, then the reference points for the rise from the higher timeframes will be added to the reference points of the lower timeframes at 1.0639 – 1.0730 – 1.0859 (resistances of classic pivot points). In case of loss of key levels (1.0510 – 1.0466), the balance of power will once again be changed and the prospects for movement will again be aimed at restoring the downward trend, first on the lower timeframes (1.0359) and then on the higher ones (1.0349–39). Additional reference points will be the support of classic pivot points (1.0419 – 1.0290 – 1.0199 ). *** GBP/USD     Higher timeframes Bulls continued to rise, as a result, the resistance of the daily Ichimoku death cross (1.2213 – 1.2266 – 1.2300 – 1.2386) is now being tested for strength. Breakdown and reliable consolidation above will open new horizons, which will be weekly levels (1.2511 – 1.2626) and entry into the daily and monthly Ichimoku cloud (1.2523 – 1.2678).     H4 – H1 At the moment, the advantage in the lower timeframes belongs to the bulls. The pair is now testing key levels—the central pivot point of the day (1.2264) and the weekly long-term trend (1.2184). Keeping them as supports will provide opportunities for bullish sentiment to develop. The next reference points for the continuation of the rise will be 1.2489 – 1.2629 – 1.2854. The loss of key levels will deprive the bulls of an advantage, which can contribute to increased activity and performance on the part of the opponent. Downward references today can be noted at 1.2124 – 1.1899 – 1.1759 (support of the classic pivot points). *** In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used: higher timeframes – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313780

Relevance up to 12:00 2022-06-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The yen is losing ground again. On the eve of the June meeting of the Bank of Japan, the USD/JPY pair tried to make a downward rush, breaking the lower limit of the range of 133.50–135.00. Rumors that the Japanese regulator would still decide to adjust its monetary policy towards tightening (at least by announcing the corresponding shifts) allowed the sellers of the pair to reach the level of 131.50. In addition, the dollar was hit by a wave of sell-offs after the announcement of the results of the June Fed meeting. And although the Fed surprised the markets with a 75-point rate hike, the greenback became a victim of the trading principle "buy the rumour, sell the fact." Due to the combination of these factors, USD/JPY bears approached the support level of 131.10 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator coinciding with the Kijun-sen line on the D1 timeframe). But the downward impulse quickly faded away. The US dollar index began to gain momentum again, and the yen was under pressure from the Bank of Japan, which summed up the results of the next meeting today.     USD/JPY bulls have every chance to test multi-year price highs again in the medium term. Note that on June 15, the pair reached a 24-year price peak, marking 135.60. The last time the price was at such heights was back in 1998. After a short-term price decline, buyers again seized the initiative, reacting to the rhetoric of Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Kuroda remained true to himself as he once again announced that the central bank would not follow the path of the Fed and most other central banks of the world's leading countries, which are tightening monetary policy parameters. At the same time, Kuroda repeated the mantra that his department would not hesitate to ease monetary policy "if necessary." Although "at this stage" he does not see the need for this. On the one hand, such "dovish" results were predictable. Kuroda and most of the members of the Board of Governors are strong supporters of loose monetary policy. But on the other hand, Japanese inflation for the first time in many years exceeded the target levels, and this factor could affect the members of the central bank accordingly. According to the latest data, the overall consumer price index in Japan has already risen to 2.5% (against the forecast of growth to 1.5%), the strongest growth since November 2014. The consumer price index excluding fresh food prices (the most monitored inflation indicator by the central bank) also showed positive dynamics, rising to 2.1%. The growth rate of this indicator has become the highest since March 2015. However, even such long-term records could not change Kuroda's position. According to him, he plans to create conditions in the country's economy for stable inflation, while at the moment the increase in the growth rate of the consumer price index "is due to single factors, such as rising energy prices." Arguing his position, he recalled that consumer prices excluding food and energy increased by only 0.8% in annual terms. At the same time, he tactfully kept silent about the fact that this indicator left the negative area for the first time in many months.     In other words, the Japanese regulator has maintained its dovish rhetoric, even despite the record devaluation of the national currency. The depreciation of the yen (paired with the dollar) to 24-year lows worried the head of the Bank of Japan, but "only in words." Kuroda said that the rapid weakening of the Japanese currency negatively affects the economy, but at the same time, "the authorities are not striving to achieve a specific exchange rate." At the moment, the USD/JPY pair is approaching the borders of the 135th figure again. The yen is depreciating not only against the greenback, but also in many cross pairs (for example, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY). The American currency, in turn, is strengthening its positions throughout the market against the backdrop of rising treasury yields and the "ultra-hawkish" results of the June Fed meeting. Considering the pace of the upward movement, we can assume that the buyers of the pair in the medium term will not only gain a foothold within the 135th figure, but also "swing" to the next price level. The USD/JPY technical picture shows similar signals. On all "higher" timeframes (from H4 and above), the pair is either on the top or between the middle and top lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. In addition, on the daily and weekly charts, the Ichimoku indicator has formed one of its strongest bullish signals. Therefore, it is advisable to use any corrective pullbacks to open long positions with the first target at 135.50. The main target is 100 pips higher, at 136.50, which is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the timeframe.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313795

Summary:  The commodity sector traded lower in a week where central banks took centre stage after several rate hikes were announced in an ongoing effort to curb runaway inflation. Most notably the 75 basis point hike from the US FOMC, a strong move that raised the prospect of this action also hurting global growth, and with that demand for commodities. Responding to these developments, the Bloomberg Commodity Index recorded its biggest weekly loss in three months, with all sectors (apart from grains) suffering setbacks. Central banks took centre stage this past week after they announced rate hikes in an ongoing effort to curb runaway inflation. The 75-basis point rate hike – and promises of more to follow – announced by the FOMC on Wednesday, added to an ongoing rout in global stocks and bonds. In fact, global equities were headed for their steepest weekly decline in two years after the SNB (Swiss National Bank) and BoE (Bank of England) joined in, thereby adding to concerns that tighter monetary policies could undermine the post-Covid global economic recovery.The price recent price actions and changes seen in bonds and stocks have gone straight to the history books. An example being the S&P 500 which, in five out of the last seven trading days, has seen more than 90% of its stocks decline. Since 1928, we have not seen such an overwhelming display of selling. Together with the rout in Cryptos and blockchains, this was indeed a week where investors had trouble finding a haven, with some commodities being the exception. Global growth worries helped push the Bloomberg Commodity index to its biggest weekly loss in three months, with all sectors (apart from grains) suffering setbacks. The most notable decline was seen in the energy sector after a prolonged outage at a major LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) plant triggered a selloff in US natural gas, with more being available for domestic consumption. Inadvertently, the disruption in US gas supplies to Europe and Russia turning down the taps to Germany and Italy, saw European gas prices jump by more than 50%. A development which, together with already record high prices for diesel and gasoline, once again highlight Europe as the epicentre of growth concerns – mostly stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, crude oil and fuel products refused to be dragged into the narrative of lower growth – leading to lower demand and lower prices. The current level of market tightness driven by supply issues is simply too big of a factor to ignore. As a result, we are seeing low availability of fuels into the peak summer demand season. Along with this, we are seeing a continued surge in the margins refineries earn from their production of fuels, especially diesel – the fuel that keeps the world and economies on the move. Being such an important input to the global economy, a small weekly loss amid rising growth fears from aggressive central bank rate hikes highlights the current predicament of tight supplies, driven by years of lower investments. These have been caused by historically bad returns, high volatility and uncertainty about future demand, ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) and the green transformation. Several OPEC+ members, for various reasons, included those mentioned are close to being maxed out. With spare capacity being increasingly concentrated among a few Middle East producers, the prospect for a continued rise in demand over the coming years will be challenging.Sanctions against Russia and other multiple disruptions have led to the OPEC+ group trailing its own production target by more than 2.5 million barrels per day. The risk of even tighter markets was highlighted by the IEA (International Energy Agency) in their monthly update when it said that world oil supply will struggle to meet demand in 2023. A post-Covid resurgent Chinese economy and tighter sanctions on Russia being the main reasons and, despite emerging growth clouds, the Paris-based agency still expect demand to accelerate by 2.2 million barrels per day to 101.6 million barrels per day, only 0.3 million barrels per day above a recent forecast from the US Energy Information Administration.Following several failed attempts to break resistance in the $125 per barrel area, Brent instead went looking for support at lower prices. However, once again, the setback proved very shallow, with support being found ahead of $115 – a previous resistance-turned-support level.Industrial metals suffered a fresh setback as the Bloomberg Industrial Metal Spot Index hit a fresh low for the year – down 28.5% since the March record peak. The peak came just before Covid-19 outbreaks in China (the world’s top consumer of metals) helped trigger a sharp reversal. Between May and early June, the index went through a small recovery phase as China began lifting Covid-related restrictions, thereby boosting the prospect for growth initiatives. However, renewed lockdowns in Shanghai, the prospect of restrictions potentially not being lifted until next year as well as renewed focus on a central bank-driven global growth reversal helped send the sector sharply lower this week.Aluminium dropped to an 11-month low after US data stoked recession fears. This was while copper drifted lower towards key support in the $4 per pound ($8900 per tons) area, thereby setting up the potential for a challenge at a level from where prices have bounced on several occasions during the past fifteen months. As long as inventory levels in exchange monitored warehouses continue to fall, as opposed to rising given the current softness, we maintain our long held bullish view on the direction of the sector.A break in copper below the mentioned levels may trigger a temporary downward push which, in our opinion and using Fibonacci’s retracement numbers, could trigger a downward extension to $3.86 or in a worst-case scenario drop of around 12% to $3.50. Source: Saxo Group Precious metals: Gold and silver traded lower this week but well above levels that otherwise could be expected, given the adverse movements seen across other markets – most notably the dollar and US treasury yields both rising in response to the FOMC 75 basis point rate hike. However, as we highlighted in our most recent update gold has increasingly been showing signs of disconnecting from its normal strong inverse correlation with US real yields. Based on ten-year real yields at 0.65%, up from –1% at the beginning of the year, some will argue that gold trades too expensive by around 300 dollars.While rising dollar and yields in recent weeks have acted as a drag on gold, thereby raising discussions about its inflation hedging credentials, it is safe to say that other supporting drivers are currently at play. The most important being the risk of current central bank actions driving a hard landing, meaning that a US recession could emerge before inflation is being brought under control – thereby creating a period of stagflation, periods which historically has been bullish for gold.We believe that hedges in gold against the rising risk of stagflation, traders responding to the highest level of inflation in 40 years and turmoil in stocks and cryptos are some of the reasons why gold has not fallen at the pace dictated by rising real yields. With that in mind, we are watching what investors do (not what they are saying) through the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) flows. During the past week, total holdings in bullion-backed ETFs have seen a small decline of less than 0.25% – again, a development highlighting investor maintaining exposure to offset the tumultuous conditions seen across other markets and sectors.Our long held bullish view on gold and silver has been strengthened by developments this past week. We still see the potential for gold hitting a fresh record high during the second half, as growth slows and inflation continues to remain elevated. The weekly chart shows that if $1,780 support is broken, there is no strong support before around $1,670 while a daily close above $1,880 is needed to change the current rangebound market behavior. Source: Saxo Group Source: WCU: Commodities drop as inflation battle heats up | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

June 17, 2022  $USD, Australia, BOE, BOJ, Bonds, Currency Movement, ECB, Federal Reserve, Japan Overview:  The large bourses in the Asia Pacific fell today after sharp losses in the US yesterday. China and Hong Kong were exception, posting more than 1% gains. The mainland markets closed higher on the week. Europe’s Stoxx 600 made a new low for the year before recovering. It is up a little more than 1% around midday. US futures are around 0.75% higher. The US 10-year yield is firm near 3.20%, while the rally in European bonds and narrowing peripheral-core spreads continues. Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese benchmark yields are 18-20 bp lower, while German, French, and Dutch yields are 7-9 bp lower. The greenback is trading with a firmer bias, with the yen being tagged for around 2% after the BOJ showed no intention of addressing the yawning divergence of monetary policy. The Norwegian krone and Swiss franc are the most resilient. Among emerging market currencies, the freely accessible ones are the most resilient today, including the South African rand, the Polish zloty, and the Mexican peso. Gold has risen by almost $50 an ounce over the past two sessions but has come back offered today and is hovering around $1850. July WTI continues to recover from its 4.4% slide in the first few sessions this week. It gained almost 2% yesterday and is up another 1% today and is near $119. US natgas is edging higher and is near $7.50 having finished last week near $8.85. Europe’s benchmark has surged 55% this week as US and Russian supplies have been disrupted. Iron ore extended its sell-off for the seventh consecutive session. It is off about 18% in this run. Copper is faring a bit better, but it has fallen in five of the past six sessions coming into today and is off another 0.5% today. It has fallen a little more than 8% during this downdraft. July wheat rose 2.7% yesterday and is little changed so far today.  Asia Pacific The Bank of Japan stood pat, recommitted to its yield-curve control and daily bond purchases, driving the yen sharply lower. Governor Kuroda appeared to have made one seemingly minor concession. The BOJ's statement included a reference to the markets, saying that the impact on foreign exchange market and financial markets would be watched. This did not deter market participants from selling off the yen as the divergence of monetary policy is maintained. The dollar recovered from yesterday's low around JPY131.50 to almost JPY134.65. In this context, intervention, which has not seemed particularly likely seems even more remote now. A statement from the G7 (June 26-28) may not deviate from the boilerplate references that foreign exchange rates are best set by the markets, but excessive volatility is undesirable. The combination of a larger than expected RBA rate hike last week, a bigger than expected rise in the minimum wage, and hawkish comments from central bank Governor Lowe has sparked a dramatic adjustment in Australian rate expectations. The implied year-end rate of about 3.85%, is up 70 bp this week after the 80 bp rise last week. The 10-year yield has risen for the third consecutive week for a cumulative increase of almost 90 bp to above 4.10%. The dollar peaked on Wednesday at a 22-year high around JPY135.60 before reversing lower. It posted a key reversal by making new highs for the move and then settling below the previous session's low. There was follow-through dollar selling yesterday to JPY131.50. In the aftermath of the BOJ meeting, the dollar has jumped back and approached yesterday's high that was just shy of JPY134.70. There is an option for almost $700 mln at JPY135 that expires today. The greenback was around JPY134.40 at the end of last week. The two-day rally that lifted the Australian dollar about 2.5% stalled near $0.7070 yesterday. It is straddling the $0.7000 level in late morning dealings in Europe. At $0.6960, it would have given up half of the gains since the June 14 low (~$0.6850). The option for almost A$500 mln at $0.7000 that expires today appears to have been neutralized. The Aussie settled last week near $0.7060. The greenback traded quietly against the Chinese yuan and was confined to the smallest range of the week, trading between roughly CNY6.6915 and CNY6.7060. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.6923, a little lower than the median in the Bloomberg survey of CNY6.6944. The fixings have alternated this week between a stronger and weaker than projected yuan. The dollar is a little lower on the week, having closed near CNY6.7090 last week.  Europe The Bank of England hiked the base rate by 25 bp. It warned that rather than expand by 0.1% this quarter, the economy was likely to contract by 0.3%, and inflation would peak closer to 11% than 10% as it suggested previously. Three members dissented in favor of a 50 bp increase. The statement said the central bank is prepared to act more forcefully if necessary. The year-end rate implied in the swaps market jumped 16 bp to 3.0% yesterday and is edging a little higher today. It is pricing in about 185 bp of hikes in the four remaining meetings of the year. That is more than a 50 bp hike that are fully discounted for the next three meetings, plus a little more. The ECB built market expectations earlier this week when it needlessly announced an emergency meeting to discuss the market. Nothing new came of it but instructions for others to have another meeting and devise a tool that can be used to fight the divergence of interest rates, which ECB President Lagarde says can interfere with its price stability mandate. Lagarde appears to have briefed the eurozone finance ministers that the ECB intends to put limits on bond spreads. Details are still lacking, but ostensibly the purpose is to curb sharp moves in short-time periods, and address what Lagarde called "irrational" moves. The tool sounds a lot like the Outright Market Transactions, which focused on the short end of the coupon curve, the purchases were to be neutralized, ostensibly by the sales of another asset, and required the beneficiary country to request it. Conditions were to be attached. If it is the ECB's tool and it is used under it discretion, won't that dilute conditionality?  Selling German Bunds might make sense if the ECB thought that a shortage of them was an important factor driving the spread. However, determining what is an irrational move can be an expensive exercise. The euro traded a little above $1.06 yesterday, its best level of the week amid what appeared to be a short squeeze. Earlier in the session it traded below $1.04. The narrowing of intra-EMU bond spreads seemed to encourage the move. The US 2-year premium over Germany fell from 213 bp to 194 bp yesterday, its least in four months. The euro is consolidating today after advancing for the past three sessions, the longest advance this month. It briefly traded below $1.05 in late Asian turnover, where options for 1.2 bln euros expire today. It settled last week near $1.0520. Sterling rallied by nearly 3% over the past two sessions, its biggest two-day rally this year. It poked above $1.24 yesterday but was unable to sustain the strong upside momentum. Sterling has been capped today around $1.2365 as a consolidative tone is seen ahead of the weekend. Initial support is seen around $1.2250, and a break could spur another half cent decline. Sterling settled near $1.2315 last week. America Although Fed Chair Powell pushed back against any suggestion that the economy is fragile, the latest string of May and June data have disappointed. It actually began with the June Empire State manufacturing survey (-1.2 vs. 2.3 median forecast in Bloomberg survey), and carried through May retail sales, and yesterday's news of a 14.4% drop in housing starts (which partly was blunted by a revision to the April series to 5.5% from -0.2%). The Philadelphia June survey unexpectedly fell to -3.3 from 2.6. The six-month outlook for orders, ostensibly a lead indicator, fell sharply to levels associated with economic contractions. Weekly initial jobless claims were a little higher than expected and have averaged 230k over the last couple of weeks, the most in five months. On tap today are the May industrial production and Leading Indicators Index. Industrial output likely slowed after the heady 1.1% gain in April. Economists expect a modest gain (0.4%) with manufacturing output growth slowing to 0.3% (from 0.8%). The manufacturing sector added 18k jobs in May, according to the recent employment report, the least since April 2021. Given the recent track record of not appreciating the economic softness, the risk is on the downside. The components of the LEI are largely known, and the index is expected to have fallen for the second consecutive month for the first time since Covid struck. Powell makes opening remarks at a conference between the equity market today, and Governor Waller discusses monetary policy tomorrow at a Dallas Fed gathering. Canada reports May industrial prices and April securities transactions, neither are typical drivers of the Canadian dollar. The swaps market is strongly leaning toward a 75 bp hike at the July 13 Bank of Canada meeting. Several Canadian banks have switched and now look for a 75 bp move. The market has 200 bp of tightening priced in the next four meetings. It looks like a 75 bp move, two 50 bp moves and a 25 bp in December. However, the broader risk appetite seems more important for the day-to-day movements. Since it almost reached CAD1.30 in the middle of the week, the US dollar has consolidated. The Canadian dollar did not take part in yesterday's wider move against the greenback. A break above CAD1.30 targets last month's high near CAD1.3075. Important support has developed around CAD1.2860. The Canadian dollar is one of the weakest of the major currencies this week, falling about 1.5% against the US dollar. So far today, the dollar trading between MXN20.30 and MXN20.50. It settled near MXN19.96 last week. Mexico's central bank meets on June 23. A 75 bp hike is expected after four 50 bp hikes and the Fed's large move. A 100 bp hike seems more likely than a 50 bp move.    Disclaimer

Pound jumps after BoE rate hike The pound had a wild day on Thursday, trading in a 350-point range. Sterling traded in a 300-point range overnight, with markets not quite sure to make of the BoE’s 0.25% rate increase. In the end, the pound received a thumbs-up and posted a gain of 1.45%.  The rate hike, which was the fifth in a row, was indeed modest, but investors liked that the BoE signalled that more rate hikes were on the way. As well, the MPC’s split 6-3 decision (3 members voted for a 0.50% hike) no doubt sent a signal that the BoE could provide a hawkish pivot if inflation does not peak. The BoE has warned of a recession and has forecast that inflation will top 11%, making it difficult to feel reassured by the central bank, but it appears that with the MPC unanimously voting to raise rates at the meeting, investors had something to feel positive about. The US dollar has shown that it can recover quickly and the risk for the pound remains tilted to the downside, with dark clouds hovering above the UK economy. GDP fell by 0.3% in April after a 0.1% decline in March, the first back-to-back contractions since March 2020, at the start of the Covid pandemic. The OECD has forecast that the UK economy will grow by 3.6% this year, but will stagnate in 2023, which would make it the worst-performing G-7 economy in 2023. In a week of dramatic central bank decisions, the Federal Reserve won the highlight of the week. The Fed delivered a 0.75% salvo, the first since 1994, bringing rates to a target range of 1.50-1.75%. The Fed downgraded its US growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, but insisted that there would be no recession. Some analysts would beg to disagree, but the financial markets were relieved, as Fed Chair Powell said he didn’t expect 0.75% rate hikes to become common. The move is a clear signal that the Fed plans to use all available tools to wrestle down inflation, which has hit a 40-year high. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has support at 1.2215 and 1.2016 There is resistance at 1.2407 and 1.2514     This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. British pound pares post-BoE gains - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Long-term review Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   EUR/CHF belongs to the category of "cross-pairs" and shows how many units of the Swiss national currency (franc) you need to pay for one euro, which is the legal tender of 19 countries (as of September 2020) that are members of the eurozone (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, France, Estonia) and the national currency of another 12 states, 7 of which are located in Europe. The base currency in the EUR/CHF pair is the euro. This means that the commodity in the EUR/CHF pair is the euro, and the Swiss franc is the second currency in the pair, with which the base currency (the euro) is bought. The euro is included in the IMF basket, consisting of five major world currencies (in descending order): the US dollar, the euro, the yuan, the yen, and the pound sterling. At the same time, the euro and the franc are the world's reserve currencies, and the franc is considered the most stable currency in the world. At the moment (after the meeting of the Swiss National Bank on June 16, 2022, when the central bank of this country unexpectedly raised the key interest rate on deposits by 0.50% to -0.25%), the EUR/CHF pair is trading on the Forex market at a price below 1.0200. This means that for one euro they give less than 1.0200 francs.     Features of trading the EUR/ CHF pair 1. Both the euro and the franc and the EUR/CHF pair are characterized by high liquidity. At almost any moment, there will be both buyers and sellers for the franc or euro. The trading volumes of the EUR/CHF pair are quite high. According to various estimates, the euro accounts for slightly less than 30% of the total trading volume on the foreign exchange market. 2. Germany, whose economy is the locomotive of the Eurozone economy, at the beginning of 2020 was in 5th place in the world in terms of GDP (3.13%), while Switzerland is in 39th place (0.40%). 3. At the same time, Switzerland ranks 9th in the world in terms of GDP (according to the IMF rating) per capita, and its economy is one of the most stable in the world. The share of Switzerland in world GDP is approximately 0.40%, the share of the Eurozone is 17%. 4. The EUR/CHF pair is actively traded throughout the trading day. The highest peak of trading activity with the euro, the franc, and the EUR/CHF pair and the largest trading volumes occur during the European session (06:00 – 16:00 GMT). Moreover, the first two or three hours at the beginning of trading in London (07:00 – 10:00) are the most active in trading the EUR/CHF pair. In the period from 10:00 to 15:00 (GMT), sharp, as it seems, sometimes unreasonable, movements of the pair are often observed, and in any direction. 5. The surge in trading volatility in the EUR/CHF pair falls, in addition to the release of news of a political nature, during the publication of important macroeconomic indicators for the Eurozone, Germany, and Switzerland. The following macroeconomic factors and indicators give the greatest volatility to the EUR/CHF pair: Decisions of the Swiss National Bank and the ECB regarding monetary policy in Switzerland or the euro area; Speeches by the heads of the SNB and the ECB (currently Thomas Jordan and Christine Lagarde, respectively); Publication of minutes from the latest meetings of the SNB and the ECB on monetary policy issues; Data from the labor market of Switzerland, Eurozone, Germany; GDP data for Switzerland, Eurozone, Germany; Publication of inflation indicators for Switzerland, Eurozone, Germany Strong macroeconomic data in Switzerland or the euro area lead to the strengthening of the franc or the euro, respectively, as they contribute to the growth of "tough sentiment" of the central banks of Switzerland or the Eurozone regarding an increase in the interest rate. And this is a positive factor for the national currency, which leads to an increase in its value. 6. Important political events in Switzerland, the euro area, and in the world also affect the quotes of currencies, and above all, the franc and the euro. The sale of assets on the stock markets of Europe leads, as a rule, to an increase in the value of the euro, including in the EUR/CHF pair. And vice versa. The growth of the stock market in the euro area, as a rule, is accompanied by a decrease in the value of the euro. 7. Although the franc has recently lost its status as a safe-haven currency due to active intervention in the trades of the Swiss central bank, it is still in active demand among investors during periods of economic or political uncertainty in the world. The franc retains a fairly strong direct correlation with the yen and gold, which have the status of safe-haven assets in the financial markets. 8. Investors still have fresh memories of when the Swiss National Bank "untied" the franc rate from the euro on January 15, 2015. The EUR/CHF pair saw a dramatic jump in volatility. In one day the EUR/CHF lost 2250 pips. In the next 4 weeks, the EUR/CHF pair "beat off" about a third of the losses, however, the EUR/CHF pair never again rose to levels near the 1.2000 mark. Currently, the EUR/CHF pair is trading near the 1.0700 mark, and the SNB periodically interferes in the trading in the foreign exchange market with the sale of the franc. In recent years, the SNB has traditionally considered the franc overbought and relatively expensive, which, according to the bank, hinders the growth of the Swiss economy and harms the country's exporters. 9. The intraday volatility of the EUR/CHF pair fluctuates in different periods of the month and year. On average, it is 65 points, but it can exceed 150 points during periods of publication of important news of a political or economic nature. 10. Many traders prefer to trade this pair at the end of the trading day and the American session. The strategy is scalping.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313786

Relevance up to 13:00 2022-06-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   As of this writing, USD/CHF is trading near 0.9660, down from an intra-month high of 1.0049 (the last time the price was near this mark was in May 2022 and in May 2019). Despite today's renewed dollar strength, the USD/CHF remains under strong negative pressure after yesterday's unexpected decision by the Swiss Nation Bank to raise interest rates. As SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said yesterday, the Swiss franc is no longer grossly overvalued, i.e. it accepts the possibility of further strengthening of the franc, which the SNB so consistently fought against recently by keeping the interest rate on deposits at a record low of -0.75% and intervening in the trading market with the sale of the franc.     Yesterday, USD/CHF reached a local low of 0.9629, breaking through an important support level of 0.9670 (50 EMA on the daily chart and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement to the downward wave that began in April 2019 near 1.0235).     The breakdown of yesterday's local low may become a driver of further USD/CHF decline towards the local support level of 0.9555, the breakdown of which, in turn, will strengthen the negative dynamics of USD/CHF, sending it to the zone of key support levels 0.9435 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) and 0.9415 (200 EMA on the daily chart), separating the long-term bullish trend of the pair from the bearish one.     In an alternative scenario, and in view of the renewed strengthening of the dollar, an upward correction may begin from the current levels. The first signal to resume long positions will be a breakdown of the important resistance level 0.9731 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart). In case of a breakdown of the resistance level 0.9820 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), USD/CHF is likely to continue rising towards recent highs above 1.0000. Support levels: 0.9630, 0.9555, 0.9500, 0.9495, 0.9475, 0.9435, 0.9415, 0.9380, 0.9325 Resistance levels: 0.9670, 0.9731, 0.9800, 0.9820, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0060 Trading Tips Sell Stop 0.9615. Stop-Loss 0.9715. Take-Profit 0.9555, 0.9500, 0.9495, 0.9475, 0.9435, 0.9415, 0.9380, 0.9325 Buy Stop 0.9715. Stop-Loss 0.9615. Take-Profit 0.9731, 0.9800, 0.9820, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0060   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313799

Relevance up to 15:00 2022-06-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Overview : The EUR/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0435. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0435, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.0435, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.0435 and 1.0602. Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.0602 and 1.0435 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. The support stands at 1.0435, while daily resistance is found at 1.0602. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0435. The market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0435. Moreover, the major support is also coinciding with the major support today. Additionally, the RSI is still calling for a strong bullish market as well as the current price is also above the moving average 100. Therefore, it will be advantageous to buy above the support area of 1.0435. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0435 with the first target at the level of 1.0554; and continue towards 1.0602. However, if the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0602 today, the market will decline further to 1.0383 so as to test the weekly bottom - the last bearish wave. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280651

Oil steady as European gas prices surge Oil prices are relatively steady at the end of the week, just shy of USD 120. Despite the correction over the last week or so, the market remains extremely tight and the price risks still remain tilted to the upside. With OPEC+ now reportedly missing output targets by 2.7 million barrels per day and setting unachievable targets for the summer, that gap will widen. The pressure in the market isn’t going to ease any time soon. Gas prices in Europe on the other hand have been surging as Russia once again appears to weaponise supplies to Germany and Italy, which remain heavily reliant on it. Both are complying with the rouble payment demands and yet have seen their flows hit heavily, with Gazprom blaming repairs as being behind the drop-off. It comes as both countries attempt to fill up reserves ahead of the winter which some suggest is no coincidence. Gold Price (XAUUSD) struggles after a brief recovery Gold has had a good run over the last couple of days as central banks have played catchup with the Fed, lifting their currencies and weakening the dollar in the process. US yields easing off their highs have also contributed to the greenback paring gains. The dollar remains king though and we’re very much seeing that today with it trading almost 1% higher which has forced gold back below USD 1,850. No doubt volatility is going nowhere with central banks now in panic mode and every piece of data being poured over for further signs of stubborn inflation and economic vulnerability. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil steady around US 120, gold under pressure - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Relevance up to 15:00 2022-06-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The GBP/USD pair is at an all-time low against the dollar around the spot of 1.1933. The GBP/USD pair is inside in downward channel. Closing below the major resistance (1.2342 - 61.8% of Fibonacci) could assure that GBP/USD will move lower towards cooling new lows. The GBP/USD pair is continuing dropping by market cap at 3% in a day, 16.33% in a week, and 61.09% in a month, and is trading at 1.2230 after it reached 1.2186 earlier. The GBP/USD pair has been set below the strong resistance 1.2342, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an downtrend. RSI (14) sees major descending resistance line acting as resistance to push price down from here (1.2342). Equally important, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still calling for an downtrend. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2264 in the H1 chart. Also, if the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend. The market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend around the spot of 1.2342 and/or 1.2264. Sell orders are recommended below the area of 1.2264 with the first target at the price of 1.2186; and continue towards 1.2089 in order to test the last bearish wave. The descending movement is likely to begin from the level 1.2264 with 1.2186 and 1.2089 seen as targets. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the GBP/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 1.2264 towards the major support level at 1.2089 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.2089, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2089. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD fails to break through the support price of 1.2089 today, the market will rise further to 1.2342 in coming hours. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280655 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280655

Relevance up to 20:00 2022-06-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Let's take a look at the technical picture of USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, SP500, Oil and Bitcoin Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/video_analysis/280665 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/video_analysis/280665

Relevance up to 22:00 2022-06-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   The short-term outlook turned bearish when the market went below 1.3600. This enhanced the bearish side of the market initially towards 1.3360 then 1.3200 which initiated a temporary bullish movement towards 1.3600 for a final re-test. The price level of 1.3600 corresponding to the upper limit of the ongoing bearish channel initiated an aggressive bearish movement towards 1.2980 - 1.3000. The price level of 1.3000 stood a transient Support where a short-term consolidation movement existed. This happened just before two successive bearish dips could take place towards 1.2550 and 1.2160. Considerable bullish rejection was expressed around 1.2200. However, the pair failed to persist above 1.2550. This was needed to abolish the short-term bullish scenario for sometime. Instead, a quick bullish movement was executed towards 1.2650 where extensive bearish rejection existed. The GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the new low around 1.2150 again which was temporarily bypassed before Immediate bullish rejection could brin the pair back above 1.2150 again. Bullish persistence above 1.2300 will probably enable further bullish continuation towards 1.2650 where further decisions can be taken. On the other hand, another bearish visit may be expected to challenge 1.1950 again if sufficient bearish momentum is expressed.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280669

Relevance up to 22:00 2022-06-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The EURUSD looked oversold while approaching the price levels of 1.0800. That's when a temporary upside movement was approaching the price levels around 1.1200. This recent movement towards 1.1200 was suggested for another SELL opportunity which already reached its targets beyond the price level of 1.0400. The previous ascending movement above 1.0600 enabled further advancement towards 1.0800 where evident bearish rejection arises again. On the other hand, the pair remains trapped under selling pressure to challenge the recent daily low around 1.0350 where price action should be watched.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280671

Relevance up to 22:00 2022-06-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   In late September, Re-closure below the price level of 1.1700 has initiated downside-movement towards 1.1500 where some recovery was witnessed. Shortly after, Price levels around 1.1700 managed to hold prices for a short period of time before another price decline took place towards 1.1200. Then the EURUSD has temporarily moved-up within the depicted movement channel until downside breakout occurred recently. Since then, the price zone around 1.1500 has applied significant SELLING pressure when a valid SELL Entry was offered upon the previous ascending movement towards it. Shortly after, the EURUSD looked oversold while approaching the price levels of 1.0800 few weeks ago. That's where the recent upside movement was previously initiated. However, the recent movement towards 1.1200 was considered for another SELL Trade which is already running in profits now. The previous ascending movement above 1.0600 enabled further advancement towards 1.0800 where bearish rejection could be applied again.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280673

EURUSD recovery from the May low of 1.0360/50 leaves a potential double bottom buy signal although on Friday we made a high for the day at 1.0545/55. Above here today retests Thursday's high at 1.0660/62 then last week's high at 1.0640/42. Minor support at 1.0460/50. Below 1.0330 risks a retest of the double bottom low at 1.0360/50. Longs need stops below 1.0325. USDCAD clearly at the upper end of the 1 year range as we retest the May high at 1.3060/80. This will be key to direction for this week. Probably worth trying a short with stop above 1.3100. A break higher however targets 1.3160/70 & 1.3240/60. Shorts at 1.3060/80 target 1.3030/20 & 1.3000/1.2990. Expected good support at 1.2955/35 for today. Dax looks likely we can hold important longer term support at 13250/150 for a bounce to 13360/380 then 13500 & resistance at 13600/650. We have a gap to fill at 13730/750. A break above here is anther buy signal. A break below 12950 is a very important medium term sell signal initially targeting 12700/600 before a retest of the March low at 12450/425. FTSE broke lower to the next target of 7000/6990 last week, holding just 56 ticks above very strong support at 6940/10. Longs here this week need stops below 6870. The bounce on Friday held 8 ticks from strong resistance at 7120/40. Shorts need stops above 7160. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 7240/50, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 7300/20. To receive this report every morning please subscribe at our website www.daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk

USD/KZT Tenge withstands geopolitical uncertainties so far Current spot: 437.05 USD/KZT moved to 420-440, in line with our positive scenario. High prices keep oil exports strong (+98% YoY in 1Q22), and capital account is protected by capped outward FX transfers, 10% subsidy to KZT deposits, and forced 75% FX sales by oil exporters. Kazakhstan renamed its oil exports via Russia (totaling 80% of annualised oil export) to KEBCO, allowing to reach US$11-12bn oil exports in 2Q22F (US$7.9bn in 1Q21) under average Brent price US$110/bbl. Geopolitics, trade ties with Russia (c.11% exports and c.42% imports) and potential relaxation of capital controls may return USD/KZT to 440-500 range, but a stronger KZT is also possible on higher oil, repatriation of previous grey capital outflows, and more inward FDI following the recent constitutional referendum. USD/TRY Currency pressures rising again Current spot: 17.25 May inflation showed no respite with continuing broad-based pricing pressures mainly driven by an accommodative monetary policy stance. Upside price risks remain at the forefront with ongoing geopolitical issues and less supportive global backdrop. Current account deficit has remained on expansionary path in March driven by commodity imports - particularly higher energy bills. As oil prices are expected to remain elevated, the current account will likely maintain the widening trend in the near term. Given this backdrop, sentiment in the currency market has turned negative since early May. Global developments as well as inflation expectations in an environment of negative real rates will remain as the determinants of the currency. USD/ZAR Impressive rand recovery Current spot: 16.06 The strength of the rand recovery has surprised us. ZAR real yields are not particularly impressive, where the policy rate is 4.75% and headline inflation is at 5.9%. The commodity story no doubt continues to help and was evidenced by a decent 1Q22 current account surplus of 2.2% of GDP. We still have our doubts about the strength of the Chinese recovery and unless Beijing introduces some bazooka-style stimulus after a late July politburo meeting, ZAR stays fragile. Our baseline view is that higher US real rates lead to a stronger dollar in 2H22 and $/ZAR heads back to the 16.00/16.20 area again. Later in the year politics will again play a role with ANC elections held in December. Ramaphosa remains the favourite to win. USD/ILS ILS poised to recover Current spot: 3.4422 $/ILS is consolidating about 3% off the highs of the year seen in mid-May. Interestingly in its review of FX markets in 1Q22, the BoI blamed ILS weakness on the domestic buy-side for uncharacteristically buying FX. It is not clear that those outflows will continue, but what may have a little more longevity are Israel’s current and FDI inflows, helped by the service sector. On the policy rate, the market may be too aggressive in pricing the policy rate at 2.50% next summer, but with growth still strong, hikes towards 1.00/1.25% look likely this year. When the dollar trend turns (early 2023?), $/ILS should turn decisively lower and sub 3.00 may well be the 2023 story. This article is a part of a report by ING Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary:  Equity markets tried to end last week’s grueling sell-off with a positive flourish on Friday, as oil prices dropped by the most in several weeks and firmness in safe haven bond markets kept bond yields at the low end of the week’s range. But are those developments down to investor concern that a recession is incoming? The week ahead features semi-annual testimony from Fed Chair Powell before Congress and global preliminary June PMI surveys.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Despite extreme volatility in cryptocurrencies and another “stablecoin (USDD)” losing its peg to the USD, US equities futures are starting the week on mild positive note. S&P 500 futures are trading slightly higher at the 3,690 level and will likely try to test the opening price from last Wednesday’s session at around the 3,743 level if risk sentiment remains positive today. There are no important macro events today so trading will be light, also due to today being a holiday in the US so cash equity markets are closed, and potentially take their lead from cryptocurrencies, although we expect the correlation to begin to decline with cryptocurrencies reducing itself to a small and isolated pocket of the market again. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI300 Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) were fluctuating between modest gains and losses. Chinese property names surged with COLI (00688) and CR Land (01109) rising 9% and 8% respectively. According to Beke Research, secondary market home sales volume in China’s top 50 cities rose more than 20% in the first 10 days of June from last month. June Emerging Industries PMI came at 52.5, 3.6pp higher than May. With COVID outbreak, Macao gaming stocks fell. China’s 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate remain unchanged. EURCHF and USDCHF The Swiss franc was in for a positive shock last week after a surprise hike – and a large 50-basis point one – from the Swiss National Bank altered the landscape for CHF traders, suggesting the central bank is less concerned with always lagging the ECB in its policy move and a moderating of concerns about the CHF level versus EUR, as a strong franc is potentially one tool that can help ease inflationary pressures. EURCHF reset lower to sub-1.0200 levels after trading between 1.04-1.05 before last week’s meeting. Focus now is on the parity level that was briefly touched in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. USDCHF is another focus, trading below 0.9700 after trading as high as parity before the decision. The 0.9500-0.9550 area is the next technical focus area there. USDJPY and JPY pairs A very challenging backdrop here for JPY traders, as the Bank of Japan’s insistence on maintaining its negative 0.10% policy rate and more importantly, the yield-curve-control policy by which it caps 10-year Japanese government bond yields at 0.25%, was seen as very JPY negative last week in the wake of a US Fed hiking the most since 1994 and the SNB executing a surprise large hike etc. At the same time, global bond markets rallied hard to close the week, particularly in the dominant US treasury market, with oil markets in a nosedive on Friday, both supportive developments for the Japanese yen. Focus for USDJPY traders remains on the 135.00+ cycle top, which may hold as long as US longer treasury yields are capped below cycle highs. To the downside, last week’s low near 131.50 was close to the prior major pivot high of 131.35. Crude oil Crude oil (OILUKAUG22 & OILUSJUL22) plunged almost 7% on Friday after growth worries signaled by the FOMC aggressive action to bring down inflation spread from the stock market and industrial metals to fortress oil and fuel. A sector which up until now has seen limited contagion risks given the tight supply outlook amid Russian sanction, OPEC+ producers struggling to raise production and lack of refinery capacity. Speculators turned net sellers of WTI in the week to June 14 following several failed attempts to break higher, potentially a signal we have entered another period of consolidation, but still with the underlying risk of eventually moving higher.  Gold Gold (XAUUSD) remains rangebound following a week of high drama that saw dramatic yield spikes being offset by growing unease about the economic outlook with recession worries on the rise as central banks step up their efforts to curb inflation. Focus on the dollar and Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday (see below). Speculators cut bullish futures to a nine-month low ahead of last week’s FOMC rate hike announcement while total bullion-backed ETF holdings on Friday dropped to three months low, both highlighting the current uncertainty about the short-term direction. Copper HG Copper (COPPERUSSEP22) has returned to the key $4/lb support area after falling around 10% during the past two weeks on China and global growth worries. Iron ore (SCON2) traded in Singapore and metallurgical coal in Shanghai, both key inputs to the production of steel have lost around 20% during the same period. China’s slumping property market and the country’s inability to put the coronavirus behind it remain a major headwind, and one that inadvertently is supporting the efforts to curb inflation through lower input costs. Copper, rangebound for more than a year, is in the short-term at risk of breaking lower with the next level of support at $3.86 before $3.50. US Treasuries US treasuries (TLT, IEF) remained firm on Friday, keeping yields at the lower end of the week’s range and near the important tipping point around 3.20% for the 10-year Treasury yield benchmark, which was the prior yield high on the way up. US data surprises have tilted increasingly negative of late and a huge sell-off in crude oil on Friday may drive slightly lower inflation expectations if the lower prices stick. US Fed Chair Powell is up this week with semi-annual testimony before Senate and House committees on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Crypto rout extends with Bitcoin The largest and one of the more stable crypto assets, plunging below the critical 20k level over the weekend after it slid 15% on Saturday. This signals not just further stress in the crypto space but also broader stress in financial markets as liquidity conditions tighten. What is going on? French President Macron loses absolute majority in Parliament After the second round of parliamentary elections completed yesterday, President Macron’s centrist coalition will only win about 245 of of the 277 seats, with a leftist coalition headed by Jean-Luc Melenchon taking 131, and Marine Le Pen’s right populist National Rally at 89 seats.  The euro is taking the news in stride, but this result will hamper President Macron’s reform agenda, including his intent to raise the retirement age and reform the pension system. The tug of war between inflation and recession means room for policy error With the central banks bucking up on the tightening bandwagon last week, we are seeing a more serious fight against inflation which is set to rise further above 9% levels in the UK this week and remains in the 8% range for the US. However, this historic tightening pace following the Fed’s 75bps rate hike last week has meant further fears of an economic slowdown. A slew of weak US data reported last week also aggravated those concerns. Markets will continue to be choppy as investors weigh inflation/recession concerns, but the long-term bear trend is here to stay. The abrupt policy turn also means an increasing scope of policy error. Keeping an eye on corporate credit markets... ... after at least one measure of US high yield corporate spreads rose to a new cycle high last week above 500 basis points above US Treasury yields, above the mid-May high of 482 basis points and up over 100 basis points from the lows in early June. The two most widely tracked high yield ETF’s, HYG and JNK, closed sharply lower last week and are down around 15% (less in total return terms) from their late 2021 highs. What are we watching next? US Fed Chair Powell semi-annual testimony this week before House and Senate committees The Fed Chair will be in the hot seat this week in the required semi-annual testimony before Congress, where politicians on the committees often take a chance to grandstand on their own political positions and observations, but after several months of decades-high inflation and record gasoline prices, will this week’s testimony show that the political pressure on the Fed is mounting? The market will also watch for any new comments from the Fed Chair, although we are just a few days removed from the FOMC press conference. U.S. housing data are out on Tuesday The housing market is in a vulnerable position. Prices are up almost 40 % since the outbreak, mostly reflecting stimulus-fueled demand. But with high inflation across the board pushing consumer confidence downward and mortgage rates surging following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle, the risks of hard landing are tilted on the upside. Over the past few weeks, several large real estate firms such as Redfin Corporation have warned against the risk of slowdown. Expect a drop in May’s existing home sales and perhaps a new plunge in the number of new home sales after disappointing data in April (minus 16.6 %). The U.S. housing market is certainly the most vulnerable segment of the U.S. economy at the moment. It will be key to monitor the upcoming data in order to assess whether there is a material risk of recession or not. May UK CPI is out on Wednesday This will be painful. Expect a new increase to 9.1 % year-over-year in May against 9.0 % in April. Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) hiked rates by 25 basis points. This was expected. But political pressure is increasing on the central bank to do more while other developed market central banks have embraced a more hawkish tone (U.S. Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, National Bank of Hungary, for instance). If inflation continues to rise (which is our baseline), we would not be surprised if we see the BoE go for an inter-meeting 25 basis points hike before the 4 August meet. Other central banks have done it recently, such as the National Bank of Hungary which decided a surprise 50 basis point hike to support the HUF last week. This only eased temporarily downward pressure on HUF. Earnings Watch This week’s earnings calendar is light but there are three important earnings releases to watch and those are Lennar, FedEx, and Accenture providing insights into the US housing market, logistics, and business spending dynamics (if you believe management consultancy is part of business spending). Today: Kanzhun Tuesday: Lennar Thursday: FedEx, Accenture, Darden Restaurants, FactSet Friday: Carnival, China Gas, CarMax Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Switzerland Weekly Sight Deposits 0800 – UK BoE’s Haskel to speak 1300 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1500 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1645 – US Fed’s Bullard to speak 1930 – ECB Chief Economist Lane to speak 0000 – Australia RBA Governor Lowe to speak 0130 – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – June 20, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

USDJPY recoups losses The Japanese yen fell back after the Bank of Japan vowed to keep interest rates ultra-low. A sharp U-turn above 134.50 has taken sellers by surprise and forced them to cover. A bullish MA cross suggests a possible acceleration to the upside. The recent peak at 135.60 is a key resistance and its breach could resume the rally towards 137.00. As the RSI goes into the overbought area, momentum buying could be fading as intraday traders take profit. The base of the latest surge at 132.40 would be the first support. EURCHF to test critical floor The Swiss franc edges higher as the market continues to price in the SNB’s hawkish turn. The euro’s plunge below the daily support at 1.0230 caused leveraged long positions to close out, driving up volatility. As the dust settles, an oversold RSI caused a brief rebound as short-term sellers bagged their profits. The price action is near April’s lows around 1.0090. A bearish breakout might trigger a new round of sell-off below the parity. On the upside, 1.0270 is the first resistance to clear before a recovery could materialise. GER 40 struggles for bids The Dax 40 struggles as investors grapple with the prospect of stagflation. A break below the daily support at 13300 invalidated the May rebound and could put the index on a bearish course in the weeks to come. Buyers’ failure to hold onto 13250 suggests that the bears have doubled down at the latest bounce. The index is heading towards 12750, though the RSI’s oversold condition attracted some buying interest. The rebound might come under pressure near 13650 as the bears could be waiting to sell into strength.

Dollar in choppy waters The US dollar held onto its intraday gains on Friday, as US bond inflows seemed to support it as investors preferred safety over risk into the weekend and today’s US holiday. With the weekend being relatively uneventful, the US dollar has eased in Asia, but overall continues a pattern of choppy range trading. The dollar index rose 0.82% to 104.65 on Friday, thanks mostly to a weak yen. In Asia, it has eased 0.26% to 104.38. The dollar index has support at 1.0350 with resistance now distant at 1.0570.   EUR/USD eased by 0.56% to 1.0495 on Friday in another 100-point session, climbing by 0.31% to 1.0525 in Asia as weekend hedges are taken off. Dutch natural gas futures prices remain elevated, so the single currency is not receiving much of a boost from last Friday’s oil retreat. It has initial resistance at 1.0600, with challenging resistance at 1.0650. Support is at 1.0450 and 1.0400 now although I note that EUR/USD has based twice at 1.0350. That leaves the door open slightly to a corrective recovery this week.   Sterling has another awful day as its economic picture darkens, falling by 1.10% to 1.2215 on Friday, edging 0.22% higher to 1.2240 in Asia. ​ GBP/USD has initial resistance at 1.2400 and 1.2500, with support at 1.2200 and then 1.1950.   USD/JPY powered higher on Friday as the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged and continues to heavily intervene to cap ultra-low JGB yields. With Japan’s inflation only expected to hit 2.50% this Friday, I can’t really blame them, but with the US, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, et al hiking, the interest rate differential continues to power USD/JPY higher. USD/JPY leapt 2.10% higher to 135.00 on Friday, with last week’s 131.50 low a distant memory and a bargain for somebody. Having probed 135.45 today, USD/JPY has eased back to 134.85 this morning, as commodity prices fell. It is likely to be only a respite though unless US yields move sharply lower this week. USD/JPY has resistance at 135.60 with support distant at 132.20.   Swings in investor sentiment continue to generate all the two-way volatility in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. AUD/USD fell 1.60% on Friday to 0.6935 before rising to 0.6955 in Asia. NZD/USD fell 0.80% to 0.6315 on Friday before rising to 0.6330 in Asia. A US holiday is dampening volumes but both Australasians have traced out bottoming patterns on the charts. As long as 0.6850 and 0.6200 hold respectively, further gains to 0.7150 and 0.6450 cannot be ruled out.   On a 24-hour basis, Asian currencies are mostly unchanged today after the losses on Friday and were mostly unwound this morning. The main reason has been a rally by China’s CNY and CNH after the PBOC left both the 1 and 5-year LPRs unchanged. USD/CNY has fallen 0.60% to 6.6760, while USD/CNH has fallen by 0.50% to 6.6745, dragging USD/Asia lower. Although the KRW, INR, MYR, THB, and IDR look the most vulnerable and remain near last week’s lows, a US holiday today should mean range-trading continues into Wednesday. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. US dollar remains firm but choppy - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The British pound is slightly higher at the start of the week, and I expect a quiet session, with US markets closed for a holiday. British pound under pressure There was plenty of volatility from GBP/USD last week, as the currency started the week with gains, only to reverse directions and end the week in the red, the third losing week in a row. Perhaps the biggest red flag from the pound’s slide was the break below the symbolic 1.20 level last week, for the first time since 2020. The pound has been hammered in 2022, plunging as much as 1500 points. The BoE rate hike of 0.25% on Thursday failed to impress the markets, with GBP/USD sliding 1.37% in the Thursday session. Three of the nine MPC members voted for a 0.50% increase, and it appears that the 0.25% was too feeble a move by the BoE, even though the benchmark rate is now at its highest level since 2009. The markets have priced in a 60% chance of a 0.50% rise at the next meeting in August, and there will be strong pressure for the BoE to deliver a 0.50% salvo unless inflation unexpectedly begins to ease. The UK releases May CPI on Wednesday, with an estimate of 9.1%, up slightly from the April reading of 9.0%. The dark clouds hovering above the UK economy are not good news for the struggling pound. GDP fell by 0.3% in April after a 0.1% decline in March, the first back-to-back contractions since March 2020, at the start of the Covid pandemic. J.P. Morgan said on Friday that the likelihood of a recession in the UK has increased over the next year or two, warning that a recession in the US would spill over to the UK. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has support at 1.2187 and 1.1969 There is resistance at 1.2441 and 1.2659   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound steady after rough week - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Relevance up to 15:00 2022-06-21 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Blue line -support Blue rectangle- target if support fails to hold USDJPY is trading around 134.93. Price is again near its 2022 highs. The chances of a major reversal and pull back towards 130 remain high. Today however we will focus on a short-term pull back that might be triggered soon. After a sharp rise from 131.47 towards 135.35, price is moving sideways over the last couple of days. Support is at 134.50. Failure to hold above this support will be a bearish signal. If the break down occurs, we should then expect USDJPY price to move towards the blue rectangle target area.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280895

Relevance up to 15:00 2022-06-21 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   EURUSD is trading above 1.05. Even in the 4 hour chart price remains below the 4 hour Kumo (cloud). This indicates that trend remains bearish. Price is above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). This is supportive for the short-term. But bulls need to show more signs of strength and push price above the cloud. Support by the tenkan-sen is at 1.0495 and by the kijun-sen at 1.0480. Bulls need to defend these support levels. Failure to hold above these support levels will lead EURUSD back towards 1.03. Bulls are challenging the lower cloud boundary. They will need to break inside the cloud to change trend to neutral.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280897

Relevance up to 12:00 2022-06-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   As of this writing, EUR/USD is trading near 1.0535, testing an important short-term resistance level at 1.0527 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart). In case of its breakout, the upward correction may continue to the resistance level of 1.0616 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart).     EUR/USD is in the zone of a long-term bearish market below the key resistance levels 1.0955 (144 EMA on the daily chart) and 1.1085 (200 EMA on the daily chart). Therefore, for now, its further corrective growth will most likely be limited by the resistance level of 1.0670 (50 EMA on the daily chart), and in the main scenario, there will be a rebound from the resistance level of 1.0527.     A breakdown of the local support level 1.0485 will return downside risks to 1.0300, and further towards parity with the euro against the dollar against the backdrop of a steady strengthening of the dollar and a deterioration in the prospects for the Eurozone. In an alternative scenario, the price will break through the resistance levels of 1.0527, 1.0616, and 1.0670 and grow to the local resistance levels of 1.0780, 1.0800, and 1.0810. Further movements will largely depend on the dynamics of the dollar and the actions of the Fed and the ECB regarding their monetary policies.     Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0485, 1.0400, 1.0355, 1.0300, 1.0200, 1.0100, 1.0000 Resistance levels: 1.0527, 1.0616, 1.0670, 1.0780, 1.0800, 1.0810, 1.0955, 1.1000, 1.1085 Trading Tips Sell Stop 1.0470. Stop-Loss 1.0565. Take-Profit 1.0400, 1.0355, 1.0300, 1.0200, 1.0100, 1.0000 Buy Stop 1.0565. Stop-Loss 1.0470. Take-Profit 1.0616, 1.0670, 1.0780, 1.0800, 1.0810, 1.0955, 1.1000, 1.1085   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313948

Relevance up to 09:00 2022-06-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD bulls keep trying to continue the bounce, Currently, the market is consolidating the recent gains in a narrow zone located between the levels of 1.0489 - 1.0545 that looks like a Bullish Pennant pattern. The nearest technical support is seen at 1.0469 - 1.0448, so as long as the market trades above this zone, the outlook remains bullish. Please notice, that despite the recent efforts, the bulls are still trading inside the bearish zone, the level of 1.0615 is still unreachable for them, and they need to break above the level of 1.0678 to enter the bullish zone.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.0840 WR2 - 1.0724 WR1 - 1.0600 Weekly Pivot - 1.0479 WS1 - 1.0363 WS2 - 1.0238 WS3 - 1.0113 Trading Outlook: The up trend can be continued towards the next long-term target located at the level of 1.1186 only if the complex corrective structure will terminate soon (above 1.0335) and the market breaks above 1.0678 level. The bullish cycle scenario is confirmed by breakout above the level of 1.0726, otherwise the bears will push the price lower towards the next long-term target at the level of 1.0335 or below.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/281013

Relevance up to 09:00 2022-06-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has been seen steadily moving towards the technical resistance located at the level of 1.2468, just where the main channel lower line is located. The bulls are temporary in change of the market, the momentum is strong and positive, so after the pull-back to the nearest technical support is done, the price keeps bouncing up. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2281 and 1.2207. Nevertheless, the supply zone located between the levels of 1.2618 - 1.2697 is still the main obstacle for bulls that needs to be broken if the rally is expected to be continued.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2922 WR2 - 1.2665 WR1 - 1.2442 Weekly Pivot - 1.2193 WS1 - 1.1971 WS2 - 1.1712 WS3 - 1.1494 Trading Outlook: The price broke below the level of 1.3000 quite long time ago, so the bears enforced and confirmed their control over the market in the long term. The Cable is way below 100 and 200 WMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of trend termination or reversal. The bulls are now trying to start the corrective cycle after a big Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made last week. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1989. Please remember: trend is your friend.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/281021

Relevance up to 20:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The problem of high inflation is becoming more acute, and along with it, fears are growing about the possible slide of the US economy into recession. And against this background, US President Joe Biden made a frightening statement. According to Biden, in order to curb inflation and avoid a recession, the unemployment rate must rise to 5.0% and remain there for five years. Now the unemployment rate is 3.6%. It turns out that in order to stabilize prices, it is necessary that millions of Americans remain unemployed, and therefore without means of livelihood, which will reduce aggregate consumer demand and, according to the law of supply and demand, will lead to lower prices. But even without taking this into account, talking about the need for an increase in unemployment does not add to optimism. After all, if the head of state declares such a thing, then the entire state machine will direct its efforts in this direction. And it is quite obvious that this will lead to a decrease in investment interest in relation not only to the American economy, but also to the dollar as such. So the dollar is likely to lose its positions today.     The EURUSD currency pair formed a flat within the limits of 1.0500/1.0545 during low activity. In this situation, the stagnation is of a short-term nature, thus the most optimal trading tactic is the method of breaking through one or another flat border.     The GBPUSD currency pair is in the stage of a pullback from the level of 1.2170, where, based on recent price fluctuations, there is a slowdown. Failure to hold the price above 1.2285 may lead to a reverse movement.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314027

USD/CNY Lockdown remains the main risk Current spot: 6.7344 The Yuan weakened in May due to a two-month long lockdown in Shanghai. The announcement of an easing in movement restrictions has led to a moderate appreciation. We can't rule out further lockdowns. But we expect they will be more flexible and will not do as much damage to the economy. Consequently, future yuan weakness should be less dramatic. The recovery of economic activity is focussed on the rebound of retail sales in June. But as residents are still hesitant about cross-province travel due to uncertain travel restrictions, we believe the retail sales recovery in June could remain quite soft. USD/INR Protected by the RBI, but for how long? Current spot: 78.14 After its sharp depreciation at the beginning of May, the INR has been improbably stable during the second half of May and early June. The stability in the INR is consistent with the shift of the Reserve Bank to a more hawkish stance, and the first rate-hike this cycle. But it also looks as if there has been some considerable central bank action behind its stability. We don’t think this will last, and we don’t think the Reserve Bank of India is fundamentally opposed to depreciation, just “disorderly” depreciation, so we believe it will depreciate further. Even with the RBI hiking again, we believe the INR will resume its weakening in the near-term. USD/IDR IDR under pressure following palm oil export ban Current spot: 14680 • In early May, the IDR retreated sharply as the government’s palm oil export ban was expected to weigh on export earnings. A narrowing of the trade surplus could undermine a key support for the currency. • Bank Indonesia also (BI) kept policy rates untouched at their last meeting, citing “manageable” inflation. They did, however, announce a plan to hike reserve requirements to 9% by 3Q to mop up excess liquidity. • The IDR has since stabilized after the authorities allowed select companies to resume palm oil exports. But the currency will remain pressured as long as the partial ban remains in place. This article is a part of a report by ING Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Currency markets trade sideways over the US holiday Not a lot has changed in currency markets overnight despite some decent intraday ranges. The US holiday and a slow news reel ensured that currency traders took the option of easing into the week, awaiting the US return this evening. The dollar index edged 0.16% to 104.48 overnight, easing another 0.14% to 104.34 in Asia. thanks mostly to a weak yen. The dollar index has support at 1.0350 with resistance now distant at 1.0570. EUR/USD rose just 0.17% to 1.0511 overnight, adding another 10 pips to 1.0525 in Asia. It has initial resistance at 1.0600, with challenging resistance at 1.0650. Support is at 1.0450 and 1.0400 now although I note that EUR/USD has based twice at 1.0350. That leaves the door open slightly to a corrective recovery this week. Sterling rose just 0.27% to 1.2248 overnight, edging 0.20% higher to 1.2270 in Asia. ​ GBP/USD has initial resistance at 1.2360 and 1.2400, with support at 1.2200 and then 1.1950. USD/JPY is holding steady at 135.00 today, almost unchanged for the past 24 hours. It is likely awaiting the reopening of the OTC US bond market this evening. It once again failed ahead of 135.45 overnight and the 135.45/60 region is shaping up as decent resistance now. ​ Unless US yields move higher again this week, the odds of a USD/JPY correction lower are rising. USD/JPY has support at 134.50 and then 132.20. AUD/USD and NZD/USD have booked modest gains to 0.6975 and 0.6345 over the last 24 hours, with trading volumes muted, but a tentative rise in sentiment proving supportive to both. A US holiday has dampened volumes but both Australasians have traced out bottoming patterns on the charts. As long as 0.6850 and 0.6200 hold respectively, further gains to 0.7150 and 0.6450 cannot be ruled out. Asian currencies are barely changed overnight as regional markets await the return of the US later today. Noises from officials in Seoul and Tokyo about currency speculation are probably limiting US dollar gains for now. Two notable exceptions are the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso, with weakened sharply by around 0.65% to USD 14,825.00 and USD 54.10 overnight. It is no coincidence that both have monetary policy meetings this week and both are reluctant rate hikers, as they prioritise the pandemic recovery. More selling pressure this week could force their hand on Thursday, but if both hold policy unchanged, could see more waves of selling into the end of the week. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. US dollar steady after US holiday - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Relevance up to 08:00 2022-06-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair GBP/USD reaching 1.2220 prompted a sell signal in the market, however, having the MACD line far from zero limited the downside potential of the pair. Shortly after that, pound jerked up and hit 1.2265, forming a buy signal. At that time, the MACD line was far from zero, limiting the upside potential of the pair. When the pair tested the level again, the MACD line was in the overbought area, so the signal to sell triggered a decrease of around 30 pips. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.     Although the lack of statistics helped pound, there was no upward correction in GBP/USD yesterday. But today there is every chance for further growth as the absence of statistics will play on the side of buyers, allowing them to push the pair above 1.2274. Furthermore, in the afternoon, US data may harm dollar as the US housing market has not been in the best shape lately due to higher interest rates. This, however, may be offset by the speech of Fed member Loretta Mester. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.2274 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2331 (thicker green line on the chart). There is a chance for a rally today, but only in the morning. Nevertheless, remember that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.2231, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2274 and 1.2331. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.2231 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2178. Pressure will return if there are no active purchases above 1.2274. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.2274, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2231 and 1.2178.     What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314031

Summary:  The US housing market is slowing down with real estate brokers laying off people and mortgage applications hitting some of the lowest levels since 1990. For homebuilders the situation is even worse as the much higher financing costs are not being offset by lower prices on construction materials. We take a look at the US housing market and Lennar's Q2 earnings published in the US pre-market session. In today's equity update, we also take a look at Tesla and the growing geopolitical risk over Elon Musk's decision to deliver Starlink to Ukraine. Can the US housing market avoid a material slowdown? This year’s change in the US 30-year mortgage rate from around 3.3% to recently 6% has a caused a dramatic fall in mortgage applications with the 12-week average now in the 5% percentile since 1990 suggesting housing activity is slowing fast. Several real estate brokers have recently laid off employees in an anticipation of declining activity. Lennar, the second largest US homebuilder, has just reported FY22 Q2 (ending 31 May) earnings with revenue at $8.4bn vs est. $8.1bn as the homebuilder is still enjoying the tailwind from previous orders. More impressively the gross margin improved 340 basis points to 29.5% suggesting good cost management amid cost pressures. New orders increased only 4% reflecting the dynamics explained above while the backlog rose 16% y/y and the backlog dollar value increased 33% to $14.7bn reflecting the inflation in construction materials and thus prices of new homes. Lennar’s new orders guidance for the current quarter is 16-18,000 vs est. 17,750, so demand is coming in weaker than estimated. For homebuilders the situation is situation is even worse with Lennar’s share price down 44% reflecting revenue and profitability slowdown. Higher financing rates for homes while building material costs remain high coupled with a tight labour market are an awful cocktail making it less attractive to build a new home relative to buying an existing home. The 6-month average of US leading indicators has gone into negative in the latest print with the downward move accelerating suggesting the US economy will materially slow down over the coming six months. Whether it turns into a recession, or to what degree, is still uncertain but the probability is definitely rising. Ironically it is the rising recession risk that is now cooling commodity prices and fading the momentum in interest rates reducing the pressure on equities. Historically drawdowns are not a continuous decline to the trough, but instead a stop-and-go sequence, and it is likely that unless adverse developments enter the equation that we could be in for a slightly more positive equity market in the weeks to come. The next leg down in equities to new lows could come from the fact that there is a natural limit to how high the nominal interest rate can go before the Fed will have to halt the tightening and thus allowing inflation to run hotter for longer which will likely cause headwinds for equities longer term. Tesla is now facing two major risks The NHTSA recently elevated its probe into Tesla’s Autopilot increasing the risk of a potential suspension. With rising commodity prices Tesla has been raising prices lately to protect its gross margin, but the majority of the cash flow generation is coming from its software sales of Autopilot. In fact, Tesla has said it themselves that they expect the majority of future free cash flow coming from the Autopilot software. A suspension is a key risk as we have highlighted before. Another risk emerging for Tesla is well described in today’s FT article Elon Musk’s Starlink aid to Ukraine triggers scrutiny in China over US military links in which Elon Musk’s decision to send Starlink receivers to Ukraine is seen as a threat to China’s national security. The Chinese EV market and the Shanghai Gigafactory have been very important factors behind Tesla great success in the past couple of years. The question is whether increasing geopolitical risks and the tensions between China and the US could suddenly become a major issue for Tesla. Tesla’s share price is still priced for perfection execution and we acknowledge the impressive results of the company, but when something is priced for perfection the sensitivity to changes in expectations is so much greater. Tesla weekly share price | Source: Saxo Group Source: Lennar and the US housing market Teslas geopolitical risk is rising | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  Global food price inflation has since peaking in March shown signs of easing, and so far, this month we are seeing most major commodity futures trading lower. If sustained it will come as a welcome relief to consumers around the world, many experiencing hardship from the recent surge in cost-of-living expenses. The weakness has been led by wheat and edible oils; the two food categories impacted the most by Russia's war in Ukraine. However, given the continued tightness and worries about Ukraine, an extended decline seems unlikely until this season's production levels become clearer Global food price inflation, currently running at a near 23% on an annual basis according to the FAO, has since peaking in March showed signs of easing. The Global Food Price index compiled monthly by the UN organisation reached a record peak in March after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, a key global supplier of high-quality wheat and the biggest exporter of sunflower oil, helped turbocharge prices to levels raising concerns of a global food crisis. Since then, however, some of the worries have started to ease with palm oil prices suffering a steep decline on the prospect for increased supplies from Indonesia, a major producer who temporarily implemented export restrictions back in March. Winter wheat harvesting in Europe and North America meanwhile have eased some of the supply concerns triggered by lack of Black Sea shipments from Ukraine. The prospect of sharply lower prices, however, remains doubtful with weather worries still a key focus in countries like India and key growing regions in France. In addition, and important from a food security perspective next winter, negotiations to export Ukrainian grain through a protected corridor in the Black Sea has made little progress, and unless Ukraine can empty its silos before the next albeit much reduced harvest arrives, the prospect of lower-than-expected available supply will linger on. In order to gauge the level of tightness in each market, we often look at the 12-month spread between the spot futures contract and the one expiring one year into the future. The chart below shows very clearly how the agricultural market has changed during the past couple of years. During a six-year period from 2014 the agriculture market witnessed a period of ample supply driven by crop friendly weather and low input costs. During this time, the market was trading in contango meaning spot prices commanded the lowest price relative to deferred. This benign and calm period was suddenly disrupted in early 2020 when the pandemic led to a temporary breakdown in supply channels. In addition, the weather phenomena of colder than normal temperatures in the region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, called La Ninã started to create challenging growing conditions, especially in South America, but also the USA and Australia. These price supportive developments were then turbocharged in early 2022 by surging cost of diesel and fertilizers and by Russia’s attack on Ukraine, a major global supplier of key food items from wheat and corn to sunflower oil. However, the easing conditions since the March peak has seen the CBOT wheat one-year spread from a near 15% backwardation to a small contango. In Europe however, the one year spread in Paris Milling wheat remains elevated at a near 15% backwardation, highlighting current challenges to the European crop outlook and uncertainties about the outlook for new crop supplies from Ukraine this coming autumn. Managed money accounts, also known as speculators, given how they leverage their positions using futures markets, have been net sellers of the nine food commodity futures tracked in this update since late April, almost one month before prices started to turn lower. Whether it was overbought markets or the temptation to book some profit following a strong run up in prices remains unclear, but from a record 1,112,000 lots representing a nominal value of $51.6 billion on April 22, that figure had dropped to 750,000 lots and $35 billion during the latest reporting week to June 14. Since April, head and shoulder formations have emerged on CBOT wheat charts, both the current front month of September and the December contract, which best reflects the final availability following this season's harvest. For the recent weakness to stick and extend, the break below necklines at $10.37 in September (last at $10.36) and around $10.48 in December (last at $10.52) needs to be decisively broken. Source: Saxo Group Source: Finally, some good news as food prices ease | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

We are happy to announce that B2Broker's B2Core has been integrated with cTrader, the world's leading FX & CFD trading platform. This integration provides B2Broker clients and their customers with access to cTrader's advanced trading features and functionality, making it easier than ever to trade forex and CFDs. The B2Core client cabinet provides an added level of convenience and security for cTrader users. cTrader is a fast, reliable, and user-friendly trading platform that offers a wide range of features to traders worldwide. As with other platforms in the B2core ecosystem, the cTrader platform will work the same way. This means that brokers using the B2Core system can offer their users a seamless experience, with the ability to open and manage trading accounts (both demo and live) directly from the trader's room, accessing the platform quickly and easily. The B2Core team has developed an improved frontend for the cTrader platform. The new design is user-friendly and provides all of the tools that traders need to be successful. With the brand new frontend, trading on cTrader has never been easier. B2Core provides users who want to utilize cTrader with a number of features and benefits. In addition to demo and live accounts, traders can also take advantage of the various currencies, leverage options, account types, and other features. If you have lost the password to your cTrader account and are unable to restore it through the trading terminal, B2Core provides a solution. You can change your password directly through the trader's room, giving you an extra layer of security. The new password can be generated automatically or manually. Either way, this will give you peace of mind knowing that your account is safe and secure. The cTrader integration will soon offer several powerful new features, including support for fractional leverage volumes and hedging/netting account types. This will give users much greater flexibility in how they approach different instruments. Additionally, users will be able to archive their accounts and track key account metrics like Free Funds, Leverage, Free Margin, Balance, and Equity. Also, we are working hard on improving the B2Core panel to give users more control over their businesses. The new features we are developing will allow admins to customize their accounts even more. We believe that these improvements will help our users run their businesses more efficiently and effectively. "Staying aligned with our philosophy of being an open platform, we always welcome new integrations, and we are committed to bringing them to life," said Panagiotis Charalampous, Head of Community Management at Spotware - the company behind cTrader. "We are delighted that B2Core has successfully joined the flourishing ecosystem of cTrader integrations, and we look forward to offering this great new option to brokers and traders." "The new integration will fulfill the needs of multiple trading platforms availability and inevitably boost our user experience," added Daniel Skitev, Head of the Marketing Department at B2Broker. "We are constantly striving to push the boundaries of what is possible in order to provide our users with the best possible services in the Fintech industry," — Daniel concluded. B2Core's newest integration extends the number of trading platforms supported to seven, benefitting both clients and the B2Core itself. These platforms are cTrader, MT4, MT5, OneZero, B2Trader, PrimeXM, and DXtrade. Our goal is to support all existing trading platforms and expect to integrate with ActTrader soon. This will provide our clients with even more choice and flexibility when it comes to selecting a trading platform that best suits their needs. If you're looking for a powerful and user-friendly trading platform, cTrader is the way to go. And with B2Core's world-class customer service, you can be sure you're in good hands. So why wait? Get your cTrader account today and start enjoying all the benefits this integration has to offer!