what is gdp?

In the world of economics, we use many indicators to describe the situation of a farm. A lot of these are important, but GBP is really essential. Recently, the situation of the economies and markets has been influenced by interest rates. But what exactly can we learn from these data, decisions?

 

What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?

We often Hear that some economy is expecting growth, but what does that mean?

Read more: The US Economy Expects Growth (GDP) In The Last Quarter (Q3) | FXMAG.COM

By definition, gross domestic product is the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced in a country during a specified period. GDP is an economic snapshot of a country that is used to estimate the size of an economy and its rate of growth. GDP can be calculated in three ways using expenditure, production or income. It can be adjusted for inflation and population to provide deeper insight.

 

Gross Domestic Product let us look into health of economies

 

What do we learn from GDP?

It gives us some idea of where the national ec

In The US Q3 GDP May Reach 3%, But The Question Is What To Expect From Q4

In The US Q3 GDP May Reach 3%, But The Question Is What To Expect From Q4

ING Economics ING Economics 17.08.2022 09:03
A rebound in manufacturing and industrial output, coupled with a decent performance from the consumer sector and net trade and inventories being less of a drag support our view of 3%+ GDP growth in 3Q. However, the housing market, a weaker external environment, higher rates and deteriorating business surveys suggest tougher times ahead US industrial production for July exceeded consensus Industrial output bounces back on strong manufacturing The US July industrial production report has posted a very respectable 0.6% month-on-month gain versus the 0.3% consensus. Manufacturing led the way with a 0.7% increase as auto output jumped 6.6%, but even excluding this key component output was up 0.3%. Mining also rose 0.7% with oil and gas output jumping 3.3% MoM as high prices spurred drilling activity. Meanwhile utilities were a surprise drag, falling 0.8% MoM. US industrial output levels Source: Macrobond, ING Strong 3Q, but outlook for 4Q looks tougher This report provides more evidence that 3Q GDP should be good. We strongly suspect that consumer spending will be lifted by the cash flow boost caused by the plunge in gasoline prices and decent employment gains, trade will be supportive too, inventories less of a drag and now we know that manufacturing is rebounding. Putting this altogether we think 3% annualised growth is firmly on the cards. The worry is what happens in 4Q. Yesterday’s NY Empire manufacturing survey was awful and points to much weaker orders and activity later in the year.  We will be closely looking to see if this is replicated in the Philly Fed (Thursday), Richmond Fed (August 23rd) and others later in the month. Even if it is seen as an aberration there are plenty of reasons to expect weaker activity towards year end. A China slowdown and recession in Europe will weigh heavily while ongoing increases in interest rates and a deteriorating outlook for the housing market will also act as a major headwind. Residential construction worries mount... In that regard, today’s other main macro report, US housing starts, fell 9.6% MoM in July to 1,446k annualised versus the 1,527k consensus. This is the weakest reading since February 2021 with yesterday's plunge in NAHB home builder confidence suggesting further falls in construction activity is likely. Housing starts and home builder sentiment Source: Macrobond, ING   We will get existing and new home sales numbers over the next seven days with further weakness expected in both due to high prices and a doubling of mortgage rates hurting affordability and crushing demand. We also expect supply to continue increasing, which will put downward pressure on prices at a time when home builders continue to struggle to find workers and the legacy of high material costs. Direct residential construction will provide a major headwind for economic growth over the next 6-12 months, but it will also have knock-on effects for key retail sectors such as furniture, furnishings and building supplies given the strong correlation with housing transactions. Read this article on THINK TagsUS Recession Manufacturing Housing Construction Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Netherlands: Wow! Dutch GDP Exceeded Expectations Growing By 2.6%!

Netherlands: Wow! Dutch GDP Exceeded Expectations Growing By 2.6%!

ING Economics ING Economics 18.08.2022 10:07
Dutch GDP rose significantly in the second quarter of this year, up by 2.6% from the previous quarter; it's much stronger than expected. The service sector rebounded particularly well but there was growth in all the main expenditure items. However, the outlook for the second half of the year is negative 'Staff wanted' says this sign at a restaurant in Maastricht, but the economic outlook for the Netherlands is negative 2.6% Dutch GDP growth rate 2Q22 (QoQ) Better than expected Growth supported by expansion of all main expenditure items These are good growth figures for the Netherlands; all expenditures, except inventories, rose. Investment provided the largest contribution to growth; gross capital formation expanded by 5.2% compared with the first quarter. Expenditure volumes rose thanks to a massive increase in transport equipment (37.2%), which had a lot of rebound potential due to earlier supply chain issues. Investment in non-residential buildings (3.7%), ICT equipment (3.2%), machinery & other equipment (2.6%), intangible assets (2.1%) and housing (1.5%) increased. Investment in infrastructure fell (-1.3%) and stock-building also contributed negatively (-0.2% GDP contribution). Household consumption rose 0.9%, particularly because of high spending at the beginning of the quarter. While consumption of services and durable were still expanding, food consumption volumes fell due to higher prices and increased visits to restaurants and bars. It was the first quarter without significant lockdown measures, which mostly ended in  January 2022. Government consumption expanded by 0.1%. Despite still elevated worldwide supply chain disruptions, Dutch exports grew by a decent 2.7%. Goods exports expanded by 2.7%, with both domestically produced goods exports and re-exports showing a positive development. Service exports, such as those driven by incoming foreign tourism, expanded by 2.8%, but remember that this is a rebound from the previous low levels we saw due to the pandemic.  The overall net contribution of international trade to GDP growth was positive (1.2%-point) in the second quarter, because of a long-standing trade surplus and the fact that imports (1.6%) showed weaker growth than exports. The import of services fell by -2.5%. Strong sectorial performance From a sectoral perspective, the value-added growth figure was strongest in the small energy supply sector (8.8% quarter-on-quarter growth). ICT (6.2%), specialised business services (4.5%), semi-public services (3.6%), trade, transport & hospitality (3.6%), water utilities (2.0%), manufacturing (1,2%) also expanded, while output was rather stable in financial services (-0.1%) and agriculture (-0.2%) and value-added contracted in mining & quarrying (i.e. oil & gas, -3.5%). While detailed seasonally adjusted data for subsectors is not available, it seems reasonable to assume that bars & restaurants, travel and recreation, and culture had even more substantial growth than the energy supply sector, given the rebound potential these sectors still had. Outlook less positive The fact that the second-quarter GDP figures were very strong does not mean that the outlook is bright. We maintain that growth will be negative in the coming quarters. Consumers will increasingly be affected by higher prices for energy and food, resulting in cuts to the consumption of other items. Last month we observed the first signs of weakening demand in the value of transactions by ING consumers and the latest figures only seem to confirm that. On top of that, gas prices have risen even further in the past few weeks. Consumer confidence figures have been at record lows for some time, while business sentiment indicators only started to drop recently. While composite indicators are still holding up reasonably well, the balance of business expectations of the economic climate in the next three months has reached its lowest level since the third quarter of 2013, bar the Covid period, according to a survey for the third quarter (mostly executed in July). On a positive note, investment expectations for the current year only fell a little and remained net positive in the third quarter. So we are currently forecasting a mild technical recession for the Dutch economy as our base case. A still very tight labour market, high amounts of Covid-related savings and expansionary fiscal policy in the medium term may somewhat limit the dip in the real economy caused by higher prices. That said, further cuts in energy supplies from Russia are a downward risk scenario that could push energy prices higher still further and put even more pressure on spending and GDP. We’re seeing the first signs of weaker demand Read this article on THINK TagsInflation GDP Consumption Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Oanda Podcast: US Jobs Report, SVB Financial Fallout And More

There Are Some Reasons Why The US GDP May Reach Ca. 3% | ISM Manufacturing Index Reached 52.8

ING Economics ING Economics 01.09.2022 20:22
Decent manufacturing activity, improved trade and inventory contributions and the cashflow boost from falling gasoline prices mean the US is set for a strong third-quarter GDP reading of around 3%, but another decline in residential construction reinforces the worries about what might happen later in the year The ISM manufacturing index held up better than expected in August, which should give a boost to strong third quarter GDP ISM holds up as rising orders and falling prices offer hope for the sector The ISM manufacturing index held up better than expected in August, coming in at 52.8, unchanged from July and better than the 51.9 consensus. Mixed regional indicators and a softer China PMI had raised warning flags, but instead new orders moved back into positive territory at 51.3 from 48 while employment rose to a five-month high of 54.2, boosting hopes of a decent manufacturing contribution to Friday's jobs number. Regarding jobs, the ISM reported that “companies continued to hire at strong rates in August, with few indications of layoffs, hiring freezes or head-count reductions through attrition. Panelists reported lower rates of quits, a positive trend”. US and Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers' indices Source: Macrobond, ING   There was also a rise in the backlog of orders which suggests that the dip in the production component to 50.4 from 53.5 is just a temporary blip and that manufacturing output can continue growing at a firm pace over coming months. Indeed, the ISM cite the better lead time for supplier deliveries and the falling prices paid component as factors that “should bring buyers back into the market, improving new order levels” The Fed will also take some comfort from the prices paid component declining to 52.5. This index was above 80 as recently as May and reflects the steep falls in energy and key commodity prices. Putting it together, with the better trade and inventory numbers and the massive support to consumer spending power and confidence from the falls in gasoline prices we look for 3% annualised GDP growth in the third quarter after the technical recession in the first half of the year. This should be supportive of our Fed funds call of 3.75-4% rates for year end. Construction highlights the weakening medium-term outlook There was less positive news in the construction data, which fell 0.4% month-on-month  in July after a 0.5% fall in June. Residential construction was the main reason with the slowdown in housing activity set to translate into falling home building over at least the next six months. Annualised US residential and non-residential construction spending ($bn) Source: Macrobond, ING   Declining housing transactions implies big declines in residential construction and weakness in some retail sales components such as building supplies, furniture and home furnishings. Falling house prices would compound the downside risk for confidence and spending so while 3Q activity overall looks pretty good, 4Q will be much more challenging, especially with China under pressure and Europe facing an energy catastrophe. Read this article on THINK TagsUS Orders Manufacturing Construction Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Kiwi Faces Depreciation Pressure: RBNZ Expected to Hold Rates Amidst Downward Momentum

Economic terms you should know: Gross Domestic Product and interest rates explained by FXMAG.COM

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 24.10.2022 10:19
In the world of economics, we use many indicators to describe the situation of a farm. A lot of these are important, but GBP is really essential. Recently, the situation of the economies and markets has been influenced by interest rates. But what exactly can we learn from these data, decisions?   What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? We often Hear that some economy is expecting growth, but what does that mean? Read more: The US Economy Expects Growth (GDP) In The Last Quarter (Q3) | FXMAG.COM By definition, gross domestic product is the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced in a country during a specified period. GDP is an economic snapshot of a country that is used to estimate the size of an economy and its rate of growth. GDP can be calculated in three ways using expenditure, production or income. It can be adjusted for inflation and population to provide deeper insight.     What do we learn from GDP? It gives us some idea of where the national economy is going we can determine whether the economy is developing and how fast. It is thanks to this that we can learn about a recession or the growth or stagnation of farmhouses. Governments and other entities such as central banks can adjust their actions by knowing the results. If growth slows, they can introduce expansionary monetary policy to try to stimulate the economy. If the pace of growth is solid, they can use monetary policy to slow things down and try to fight off inflation. Moreover, it enables analysts to compare countries economically. However, it should not be treated as a hard economic indicator, because there are many gaps in this method of "measuring the economy". Since GDP is a direct indicator of the health and growth of an economy, companies can use GDP as a guide in their business strategy.   There are also types of GDP. The main ones are: Nominal GDP is an assessment of economic production in an economy that includes current prices in its calculation. All goods and services counted in nominal GDP are valued at the prices that those goods and services are actually sold for in that year. Real GDP is an inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the number of goods and services produced by an economy in a given year, with prices held constant from year to year to separate out the impact of inflation or deflation from the trend in output over time. GDP per capita is a measurement of the GDP per person in a country’s population. Per-capita GDP shows how much economic production value can be attributed to each individual citizen.   When a central bank lends money - what is interest rate? Interest rate is the amount a lender charges a borrower and is a percentage of the principal—the amount loaned. The interest rate also applies to the amount earned in the bank or the cashier from the deposit account. The interest rates charged by banks depend on many factors, such as the state of the economy. A country's central bank sets the interest rate each bank uses to determine the APR range it offers. When the central bank sets interest rates high, the cost of debt goes up. The high cost of debt discourages people from taking loans and slows down consumer demand. So it helps against inflation, but it is negative for borrowers because the cost of debt rises and sometimes it can be difficult to pay off. In the situation of some households, this state of affairs can cause financial problems, such as indebtedness to friends or elsewhere, and directly affects the standard of living.     Stimulating economies On the other hand, economies are often stimulated during periods of low interest rates because borrowers have access to cheap loans. Because the savings rate is low, companies and individuals are more likely to spend and buy more risky investment instruments such as stocks. This spending fuels the economy and injects capital markets. Simply put, for economies interest rates are crucial because they help stimulate their growth and also help in times of high inflation. Sources: Dictionary Of Economics And Commerce

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