vodafone

After years of heavy pressure on revenues in the telecom sector, we make a call for near-term revenue stabilisation. From an operational perspective, the main themes for the telecom sector are the build-out of 5G and fibre networks. To improve the relative position of the sector regulators should review their measures to provide a more level playing field Source: Shutterstock War has a limited impact on the telecom sector European- and US-based telecom operators are rather insulated from the conflict in Ukraine. Major operators have no sales in the region, the exception being VEON, which is largely exposed, since it is active in Russia and Ukraine. Telekom Austria had only 7.4% of its FY 2021 revenues coming from Belarus. For now, the impact of the war seems limited, with most companies maintaining their 2022 outlook. Typically, demand for telecom services grows in line with GDP. If a severe recession would hit the global economy, telecom operators and handset vendors probably have to adjust revenue expectations in line with GDP expectations, on average. In Europe, however, service revenues have historically already been under pressure because of strong competition. We do not foresee a substantial impact on the financial solidity of companies resulting from this crisis. The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare. State sponsored hackers could engage at some point in cyberwarfare, something the US government warns about. Hackers could try to impair (local) infrastructure, while telecom companies have to up their defenses. Interestingly, so far, we have seen limited impact from cyberwarfare that could possibly have been initiated as a part of the war in Ukraine. However, we are starting to see revenue stabilisation in a couple of markets. For example, the market leaders in the Dutch, French, Belgian and German markets are close to revenue stabilisation. This is mainly driven by new broadband products, which are often offered with mobile services in a bundled product. Restructuring programmes continue to modernise the back-office of the operators and to phase out legacy technologies. Once programmes are over, this could be a tailwind for profitability. Despite good traction from bundled products and new high ARPU fibre products, many incumbents have segments that see price pressure, often in the business segments. This explains why we see positive trends in the sector, while revenues are not showing strong positive growth rates. Domestic revenue trends European telecom operators Source: Company, ING Aiming for a level playing field The European Commission aims for gigabit broadband for all households as well as for a fast 5G mobile connection in populated areas, which should be reached by 2030. It also aims to rein in some large technology companies. It has published proposals for the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Markets Act (DMA) which should reduce the dominance of the large technology platforms and create a level playing field with other sectors in Europe. The EU member states and European Parliament said they welcome the proposals. These are now subject to formal approval by the two co-legislators before they will be applicable. Hopefully, the competitive position of telecom companies will improve as well at some point in the future. Competition has been promoted... and this has lowered prices for telecom services as well Regulation has seriously impaired the profitability of telecom companies through tariff measures (for broadband wholesale access and roaming tariffs). Competition has been promoted, with four mobile operators in many European countries. This has lowered prices for telecom services as well. Governments have raised a lot of money through spectrum auctions and often incentivised new operators entering the market. Finally, product differentiation has been difficult because of net neutrality regulations. As a consequence, free cash flow has been under pressure from both weaker revenues, as well as heavy investments and dividends. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM A case in point is Telecom Italia, which had a solid investment grade rating in 2005, but is now rated in high yield territory. The Italian market is characterised by heavy competition, while the company explains that its fixed network faces relatively high regulatory pressure from a multitude of measures. The company faces substantial pressure on revenues, as can be seen in the figure above. The interim result is that the company is investigating a break-up, having ramifications for the speed of the broadband roll-out in Italy. The downward pressure on credit ratings has been more widespread in the European telecom sector since most companies have already seen rating downgrades. This is illustrated in the table below. Downward rating pressure for European telecom operators Source: S&P Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM As a result, telecom companies have been at the wrong spot in the value chain, while companies that sell telecom equipment, media content or cloud storage have performed very well, as is shown in the figure below. While large technology companies have the means to invest in new (transatlantic) fibre networks, incumbents often can’t fund all of their network investments from their cash flows. In our opinion regulators should pay attention to a call by the European Telecom Network Organisation (ETNO) in which they ask for a fair contribution for the network investment costs from companies that extensively use broadband networks. Since 2015, unregulated firms did profit from internet with market cap. growth Source: Refinitiv Sector trends contribute to revenue stability Nevertheless, broadband connectivity will likely improve across Europe and 5G is here to stay. The private sector is investing heavily, but there are also plans to invest €13bn in digital connectivity as part of the European Resilience and Recovery Plan. Typically, customer retention is relatively healthy for fibre products, especially when combined in a fixed-mobile converged offer. Net mobile networks and services could also contribute to the goal of revenue stability and eventually growing revenues. This year, 5G products and services will likely become widespread. However, it will be key for mobile operators to find good pricing policies for these new 5G services.   Read this article on THINK TagsTelecom sector European telecoms Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Dax 40 December futures momentum is clearly negative as we break the July low at 12380/360. Yesterday we made a high for the day only 35 ticks above first resistance at 12350/400 before prices collapsed as expected. We appear to have formed a 9 month descending triangle pattern & have broken the lower trend line. Yesterday we formed a bear flag so a break below 12000 is the next sell signal. FTSE 100 December futures held Monday's range so same levels apply for today but we are breaking lower over night. Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa. Update daily by 06:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Dax December broke support at 13100/13000 for a sell signal, then 3 month trend line support at 12700/650 for another sell signal & now the July low at 12380/360 for a new sell signal. Yesterday we made a high for the day just above first resistance at 12350/400. Then we crashed below 100 month MA support at 12200/150. As I warned you, the last 3 times this MA was tested, it did not hold, in 2009, 2011 & 2020. So now we have broken below 12000 (not a surprise!) & could drop quickly to 11700/700. Gains are likely to be limited of course in the bear trend with resistance at 12100/12200. Shorts need stops above 12300. FTSE December hit 500 day moving average support at 7020/7000 but we have 2 year 38.2% Fibonacci support & June low at 6950/6910. Longs need stops below the 500 week moving average at 6850. A break lower is a major medium term sell signal. Bulls need a break above minor resistance at 7080/7100. A break higher meets strong resistance at 7160/80. Shorts need stops above 7210.

Stock index contracts are falling today as consumer sentiment declines. This time it's consumers from Europe's largest economy, Germany, where a record of pessimism has been set. Sentiment in Germany vs. DAX quotes Germany's GfK consumer climate index fell to -42.5 in October 2022 from -36.8 the previous month, reaching a new record low. This is the fourth consecutive decline, which was worse than market forecasts had predicted. The latest reading highlighted growing concerns over rising inflation and high energy prices, as well as persistent fears of recession, with income expectations falling to a new record low (down 22.4 points to -67.7), according to data released by GfK Group. Economic expectations also fell 4.3 points to -21.9, reaching their lowest level since May 2009. Meanwhile, willingness to buy fell 2.8 points to -19.5, the lowest level since October 2008, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines. "The current very high inflation rate of almost eight percent is leading to large losses in real income among consumers, and thus a significant reduction in purchasing power," - Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert, said. Source: Conotoxia MT5, DE40, H4 With sentiment weakening, but also with increasing chances of further interest rate hikes whether in the United States or the Eurozone, as well as a perceived energy crisis looming this winter, the German DAX index's stock price has set new local lows. At 10:19 GMT+3, the DE40 was down 1.15 percent and at its lowest level since November 2020. That's when the markets were hit by the autumn wave of the covid outbreak, and moments later a new upward wave followed with news of a successful vaccine. Then the bottom was established in the 11500 point area, and it seems that it could be a potential support for DE40. London Stock Exchange quotes It is impossible not to mention the UK stock market, which seemed to defend itself from declines for a long time. Now, however, the FTSE100 index, too, may be heading south. The UK100 instrument on the Conotoxia MT5 platform is down 1 percent to 6898 points as of 10:23 GMT+3. This week, Britain's main index hit its lowest level since March 2022. Source: Conotoxia MT5, UK100, W1 The London Stock Exchange appears to be under pressure from lingering concerns about the country's economic outlook, exacerbated by a lack of commitment to fiscal discipline. The budget plan of the UK's new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng, which includes historic tax cuts and a massive increase in debt, has been met with strong opposition from the International Monetary Fund and the Moody's rating agency. If it is implemented, it is possible that the UK could experience a rating cut. Did you know that CFDs allow you to trade on both falling and rising prices? Derivatives make it possible to open buy and sell positions and thus trade on both rising and falling quotes. At Conotoxia, you can choose from CFDs and DMA CFDs on more than 4,000 shares of companies listed on stock exchanges from all over the world. To find a CFD or DMA CFD on a stock, all you need to do is follow 4 simple steps: To access Trading Universe - a state-of-the-art hub of financial, information, investment and social products and services with a single Smart account, register here. Click "Platforms" in the "Invest&Forex" section.Choose one of the accounts: demo or live On the MT5 platform, search for the CFD action you are looking for and drag it into the chart window. Use the one-click trading option or open a new order with the right mouse button. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Stock market news: Worse consumer sentiment and poor stock market sentiment (conotoxia.com)

AUDUSD grinds higher The Australian dollar finds support from strong CPI in Q3. From the daily chart’s perspective, sentiment remains extremely bearish and the latest rebound could be a mere flag-shaped consolidation near moving averages. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at the support-turned-resistance (0.6400). Its breach on a second attempt means that the bulls will be challenging 0.6540 before they could turn the mood around. Or a dip below 0.6300 could trigger a new round of sell-off below the critical floor at 0.6210.   XAUUSD attempts to bounce Bullion strengthens as a decline in US home prices weighs on Treasury yields. Gold saw bids at the previous low (1615) and a surge above 1660 may have prompted some short interests to cover. A rally fueled by profit-taking will not be enough to reverse the price action unless the precious metal secures follow-up buying. 1670 used to be a demand zone from a rally earlier this month and has become a key resistance. Its breach would carry the price to the previous high at 1730. A break below 1615 would push gold to 1570.   UK 100 tests resistance The FTSE 100 bounces as traders bet on a slowdown in the hiking cycle. The index has clawed back losses from previous sessions but the bias remains down. The price action is testing the supply zone between the 30-day moving average and the daily resistance at 7100 where strong pressure could be expected after the market edged into bearish territory. 6880 is a fresh support and 6820 the short-term bulls’ second line of defence. Their breach would invalidate the latest rebound and send the index below 6700.

USDCAD finds strong support The US dollar recovered after the Fed cautioned that rates could go higher than expectations. The rally has come to a halt in May 2020’s consolidation area. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling has weighed on short-term sentiment. A tentative break below the daily support 1.3500 has put the bulls under pressure. A bearish breakout would force them to bail out and trigger a deeper correction below 1.3300. 1.3750 is the first resistance and the bulls will need to clear 1.3850 before the uptrend could resume. XAUUSD hits resistance Gold softened after the US dollar regained strength post-FOMC. After the price gave up all the gains from its rally in early October, the latest rebound met stiff selling pressure near the support-turned-resistance 1670. A long bearish wick suggests a rejection of this level. As wrong-footed traders scramble for the exit, 1618 is key in keeping the precious metal afloat. Its break would signal a bearish continuation in the days to come. 1645 is a fresh obstacle where the bears could be looking to double down on the prevailing pessimism. UK 100 struggles for support Equities turned south after the Fed sees a pause in tightening as premature. The FTSE reversed its course at a former support (7200) on the daily chart. The recent rally could use some breathing room after it broke above the daily resistance at 7100. After the RSI swung back into oversold territory, 7080 is the first level to gauge the strength of follow-up interests. The psychological level of 7000 would be an important support to keep the bulls interested. 7200 is a fresh peak and a bullish breakout would carry the index to 7330.

FTSE 100 December reversed from the 7190/7200 targeting minor support at 7170/50 then strong support at 7110/7090 with a low for the day exactly here. Longs need stops below 7070. Today's Analysis. Dax December broke the 3 week rising trend line, from the October recovery - a counter trend move. So it is likely that the 2022 bear trend has resumed. However best support at 13150/100 today. Holding here allows a recovery to first resistance at 13250/350. Shorts need stops above 13400. First support at 13150/100 but longs need stops below 13050. A break lower targets second 12950/900. A break below 12850 is a medium term sell signal & confirms the resumption of the bear trend. A weekly close below tomorrow night is further confirmation of course. FTSE December a low for the day exactly at strong support at 7110/7090. Longs need stops below 7070. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 7030/20 then 6970/60. Longs at strong support at 7110/7090 can target 7180/90.

As we all saw in 2022, supply chain issues and soaring inflation hurt many businesses. Many large retailers have reported weaker profits due to the current macroeconomic challenges. This makes it even harder to figure out how to invest your money. The problems listed above are mostly indirect problems for companies such as Vodafone and Apple. After 4 years, Vodafone changes its CEO. Nick Read will hold the role until the end of the year. The situation with Apple in China and what this means for Apple’s stock. Vodafone - The company has already started looking for a new president Vodafone Group plc is a British multinational telecommunications company. The situation of Vodafone (VOD.PL) is not too good. After Read took the position, the company's shares fell almost 50% (45% to be exact). Stocks are at their lowest in two decades, according to data. The company has already started looking for a new president, as the current one will remain in this position only until the end of the year. Vodafone is also considering a merge with Hutchinson Three. Read next: Gas: Volatility still remains high and colder weather over January and February could see the natural gas bulls come back into town says Luke Suddards| FXMAG.COM   Foxconn, the Chinese iPhone supplier, is having production issues Apple makes most of its devices in China. Recently, however, production is affected by many factors. Foxconn, the Chinese iPhone supplier, is having production issues. COVID-19 lockdowns in the area and employee-management dispute are major sources of problems. Analysts predict these production issues could lead to a 5% to 10% drop in production. Apple's situation is unique as the company relies on partner Foxconn Technology Group, a Taiwanese group that manages the facility to ensure that production runs as intended. If violent protests and lockdowns continue, production could be held back even more than expected. According to analysts and people in the Apple supply chain, after a year of events that have weakened China's status as a stable manufacturing hub, the shock means that Apple is no longer comfortable. Read next: The latest dollar selloff is a hint that the US dollar has certainly peaked this year, and next year will be, (...) , a year of softening for the greenback| FXMAG.COM The solution may be to move production to India. Analysts reported that by the end of 2022, Apple will transfer about 5% of the world's production of iPhone 14s there. Apple and China have spent decades bonding in a relationship that has so far been mostly mutually beneficial. Change won't come overnight. However, the transformation is already underway. In recent weeks, Apple Inc. accelerated plans to move some of its production outside of China, and to reduce reliance on Taiwanese assemblers led by Foxconn. With a market capitalization of $2.33 trillion, Apple is still the world's largest publicly traded company. They also have $169 billion of liquidity on their balance sheet, but all of these production issues are causing investors concern. Analysts noted how much Apple relied on iPhone sales, which accounted for 52% of revenue. Experts also point out that if Apple continues to rely heavily on suppliers in China, it could become vulnerable. As it became clear that manufacturing problems in China could pose a serious threat to supply, Apple shares began to fall. On December 2, Apple shares were down 18.79% year-to-date. Source: reuters.com, forbes.com, wsj.com

Summary:  Equity markets are steady after the US posted softer producer inflation than expected and the highest weekly jobless claims in over eighteen months yesterday. Treasuries yields dropped on the data and once more supported the megacap-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, while the broader market was mixed at best. The US dollar rallied across the board, particularly against sterling, which sold off broadly after a whipsaw-reaction to the guidance from the Bank of England meeting. Copper plunged through key support, suggesting concerns for the global growth outlook. What is our trading focus? US equities (US500.I and USNAS100.I): compressed trading ranges Negative jitter around the US debt ceiling negotiation and initial jobless claims weakened further providing a bit of weight to the forward curve in SOFR futures pricing rate cuts later this year, but the equity market remained relaxed with S&P 500 futures staying in the recent tight trading range. The VIX Index remains below 17 suggesting little implied short-term risks in the market. In Nasdaq 100 futures there were a bit more positive vibes yesterday due to the market liking yesterday’s AI announcements by Google. Today’s key macro event for the equity market is May preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Chinese equities (HK50.I & 02846:xhkg): head for weekly losses The Hang Seng Index and the CSI300 Index extended the decline, edging down 0.1% and 0.6% respectively by mid-day, both heading for over 1% losses for the week. In China, the amount of new RMB loans slumped to 719 billion in April from RMB3,890 billion in March. Loans to corporates collapsed by 75% and loans to households turned negative, stirring up investors’ worries further about the loss of momentum in the Chinese economy. The Hang Seng TECH Index, however, was lifted by rallies in e-commerce platforms following JD.COM (09618:xhkg) reported a better-than-feared 1% Y/Y revenue growth in Q1, a 33% EPS beat, and upbeat guidance for Q2. JD.COM surged 7% and peer e-commerce names gained between 2-4%. E-commerce A-shares stocks also advanced in mainland bourses. A-share textiles and traditional Chinese medicine names also bucked the decline. FX: Safe haven flows drive the USD higher Despite cooler economic data in the US knocking treasury yields back lower and refuelling of banking sector concerns, the US dollar rallied on Thursday across the G10 board. GBPUSD tried a weak rally immediately after the Bank of England’s rate hike but resumed its slide from recent highs subsequently to test 1.25 as the hawkish message was later discounted and yields actually fell at the front end of the UK gilt curve. EURUSD also dropped to test 1.09. AUDUSD and NZDUSD had more to give after recent gains, and were down toward key levels of 0.6700 and 0.6250 respectively. USDJPY bounced from lows well below 134.00 yesterday after a broad JPY surge, trading above 134.50 this morning in Europe. Crude oil: demand concerns still weighing Weak demand concerns continue to pile up for the crude oil market, with US economic data on cooling inflation and labor market conditions further igniting slowdown concerns and China’s inflation and credit data also pouring water on the China demand surge hopes. WTI prices dipped below $71/barrel while Brent was below $75. There were however some reports that underpinned oil prices later. US energy secretary, Jennifer Granholm, said the government aims to purchase oil to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after a congressionally mandated drawdown ends in June. OPEC increased its outlook for China’s 2023 oil demand, thereby supporting expectations for a rise in global demand of 2.33mb/d, a prediction that contradicts the current downward trend in oil prices Copper and silver, two major casualties during Thursday’s risk off session Copper fell to its lowest level in seven months on rising concerns over the health of China’s economy. Copper futures broke below key support of $3.80/lb for the first time in four months, thereby supporting fresh selling by momentum-based funds and hedge funds already short. The next key level of support at $3.6680/lb, the 61.8% retracement of the October to January rally is now being tested. While short-term pressure is apparent, copper remains the king of green metals and lack of a resilient supply means prices will remain underpinned in the medium/long term. The copper weakness triggered a 5% sell off in silver, the biggest one-day loss since February 2, 2021, with selling accelerating after breaking support at $24.50. Having shown resilience following the 31% March to April rally, correction risks have been rising with focus now on support at $23.72, the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned rally. Gold, the next shoe to drop? The general market weakness on Thursday, especially across the metal sector, saw profit taking drive the gold price back towards a key area of support. Recently established longs after the softer CPI print lifted expectations for a Fed pause got caught offside and with silver tumbling 5% support evaporated. However, mounting fears of the US debt ceiling, de-dollarization flows, geopolitical tensions, expectations for rate cuts later this year remain key reasons why the yellow metal is currently holding up very well. The gold-silver ratio has jumped to near 84 and highest since March 29. Strong fundamentals aside, the short-term direction will be determined by flows and hedge funds are currently holding an elevated long, that could get squeezed. Support at $2007 followed the $1991 ahead of the big one at $1950 while resistance remains firm above $2050. US Treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) lower on US data The soft PPI headline data and spike in jobless claims (more below) saw US treasury yields pushing lower, though curiously a bit more at the long end than at the short end as the rally in 2-year treasuries reversed in late trading and the 2-year benchmark only closed a couple of basis points lower, while the 10-year Treasury yields closed some 6 basis points lower. The bottom of the range since the US bank turmoil began in March is now a bit closer in the 10-year benchmark – at 3.25% versus the 3.39% level this morning. What is going on? The slow cooling of the US economy – PPI softens, jobless claims rise US producer prices in April rose 0.2% M/M, less than the expected 0.3% rise, while the prior month was revised to a 0.4% decline from an initial 0.5% decline. The Y/Y figure fell to 2.3% from 2.7%, coming in softer than the 2.4% expected. Core PPI rose 0.2% M/M, as expected and reversing last month's 0.1% decline, with core services rising to 0.4% from 0.2% while core goods were more contained at 0.2%. Core PPI rose 3.2% Y/Y, beneath the expected 3.3% rise and down from the prior 3.4%. Meanwhile, weekly US initial jobless claims printed at 264k vs. 245k expected and 4-week average (as of last week) of 239k. It is the highest reading since October of 2021, and supports market expectations for eventual Fed cuts, though several more weeks of worsening claims data will be necessary to support the scale of cuts priced into the forward curve. Markets continue to price in about 100bps of rate cuts from the Fed through the January 2024 meeting. Richemont fiscal year results beat estimates The Swiss-based luxury goods maker reports this morning better than expected fiscal year revenue and operating profit of €5.03bn vs est. €4.82bn. The company is announcing a special dividend of CHF 1 per share. The company is also saying that its Chinese group travel business has not rebounded, inflation will be stickier than what people think, and finally that US demand has been in a slowdown since November. Alphabet shares rise 4% on AI announcements Google, the search engine business of Alphabet, reported yesterday several key updates on their AI efforts and technology including announcing a foldable smart phone to rival that of Samsung. The market came away impressed by the AI announcements sending Alphabet shares higher by 4%. JD.com rallies 7% on positive Q2 comments JD.com, one of China’s largest e-commerce retailers, reported better than expected Q1 revenue and earnings and said that Q2 gross merchandise volume growth is higher than in Q1 bolstering the hope for a growth rebound. Another round of regional bank fears Regional bank fears re-ignited on Thursday after PacWest Bancorp announced it saw deposit losses in early May of roughly 9.5% after noting it is exploring all strategic options. Western Alliance also sold off on the news pre-market, but recovered later after it announced total deposits are up $600mn since May 2 to ~$49.4bn as of Tuesday May 9. Banking sector confidence remains fragile and prone to further deterioration if deposit concerns continue. The KRX regional bank index fell more than 2% to its lowest daily close of the cycle. Elsewhere, FDIC proposed a special fee on larger banks to recoup losses incurred by SVB and Signature Bank failures. The fee would be based on the amount of uninsured deposits at each bank, and would set an annual special assessment rate of 12.5bps on a bank's uninsured deposits as of December 2022. Debt ceiling meeting postponed The White House said it has postponed a meeting on debt ceiling negotiations between Biden and GOP leaders that was scheduled for Friday to allow staff-level talks to continue. After Tuesday’s meeting brought no progress in talks, another postponement could bring additional bond volatility. While the White House reportedly viewed the delay as a positive development, adding that staff meetings were going well and it was not yet time for the principal leaders to come back together, Republicans disagreed, and Kevin McCarthy said that he does not think there is enough progress for leaders to get back together. Concerns are also starting to rise about the Treasury’s cash balance which is down by half since the start of the month, standing now at $155bn, and on pace to hit Janet Yellen’s critical date of June 1, although if the Treasury can piece together enough financing until mid-June, fresh tax revenues may delay the crunch time until July or August. What are we watching next? Election in Turkey on Sunday A smaller opposition candidate to President Erdogan who was polling at a few percentage points bowed out of the race yesterday in an election this Sunday that is chiefly a two-way affair between Erdogan and the main opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who has called the election a referendum on democracy and accused “Russian friends” of interfering in this Sunday’s election with deep fake videos and other content. Kilicdaroglu has slightly led Erdogan in the polls, but after a widening of the gap in the wake of the devastating earthquake in February, the gap has closed to only a few points. Yesterday, Erdogan announced a large hike in the minimum wage for civil servants set for July after announcing a previous 45% wage hike just two days prior. Read next: Saxo Bank Articles And Videos On FXMAG.COM G7 meeting needs to be on our radar The G7 nations are set to meet next Friday and into the weekend in Niigata, Japan, with considerable anticipation that the meeting could produce major geopolitical signals related to the nature of the nations’ relationship with China. This morning, Bloomberg reports that G7 finance heads will propose a new partnership on supply chains that will only allow participation if certain minimum standards are met on human rights and environmental policies. Today’s Technical Highlights: S&P 500 range bound 4,050-4,195 DAX range bound. Key support at 15.700 for a correction Gold key support at 1,980 and 1,950 Silver below key support at 24.64. Support at 23.72. Could spike down to 23.00 Copper closed below support at 372. Downside risk to 360-356 Brent Oil rejected at 0.382 could test previous lows at 71.28 WTI lower after rejected at 0.50 retracement. Could test previous lows at 64.12 EURUSD testing key support 1.0900. If closing below correction down to 1.0744 Dollar Index could bounce to 102.50-103 EURJPY Shoulder-Head-Shoulder reversal unfolding. Could drop to 144.80. GBPUSD testing rising trendline. A break likely leading to support at 1.2344 US 10-year Treasury yields close to be testing key support at 3,30-3,25 Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings calendar is non-existent, so the focus will be on the European earnings releases with Richemont being the most interesting because of the strong rally in luxury stocks this year. Next week’s earnings releases have been added with our focus next week being on Siemens Energy, Home Depot, Siemens, Tencent, Walmart, and Deere. Friday: Societe Generale, Allianz, Richemont Next week’s earnings releases: Monday: Constellation Software, Siemens Energy, Meituan, Bridgestone, NU Holdings, Trip.com Tuesday: KBC Group, Vodafone, Nibe Industrier, Sonova, Home Depot, Baidu Wednesday: Siemens, Munich Re, Commerzbank, Tencent, Experian, Cisco, TJX, Target, Sea Ltd Thursday: KE Holdings, National Grid, Walmart, Alibaba, Applied Materials Friday: Deere Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1115 – Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak 1400 – US Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment 1600 – USDA's World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) Source: Global Market Quick Take: Europe – May 12, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

 Vodafone Q1 24 – 24/07 it's been one way traffic for the Vodafone share price so far this year, with declines on declines, with the shares at 25-year lows. The departure of Nick Read as CEO hasn't been enough to stop the rot with new CEO Margherita Della Valle seemingly unable to convince markets she has a coherent plan to turn the business around. In May the telecoms company announced it was looking to cut 11k jobs over the next 3 years, as it announced its full year number. Full year group revenues rose 0.3% to €45.7bn.   The Germany business continues to underperform, posting a decline of 1.6%, driven by the loss of broadband customers, while the UK did much better, seeing an increase of 5.6%, which was driven by an 8% increase in mobile service revenue.   Its other markets in Spain and Italy also saw declines in organic service revenue of 5.4% and 2.9%. Full year pre-tax profit for the year rose to €12.82bn, however most of this was down to the gains from the disposal of the Vantage Towers business, of €8.6bn. Vodafone also generated an additional €689m from the completion of the sale of its Ghana business, as well as a loss of €69m on its disposal of Vodafone Hungary.   Investor concern remains primarily around the company's debt level at a time when the company seems to lack a growth strategy. On the plus side the company has announced that it is working through the final details of the merger of its British operations with Hong Kong's Hutchison Holdings, which runs the Three network.  

  Vodafone H1 24 –14/11 – the Vodafone share price has been in a slow decline for the last 5 years, falling to a 25-year low, below 70p in the summer of this year. Since those lows, we've seen a slow recovery as new CEO Margherita Della Valle looks to try and turn the ailing business around. Almost all of its European businesses have proved to be a drain on the balance sheet, which makes the decision last year to reject an €11bn bid last year by Iliad for its underperforming Italian business.   That is now ancient history with the new CEO looking to focus more on the UK business, after announcing last month a €5bn deal to offload its Spanish business to Zegona for €5bn. The increased focus on the UK and German businesses has seen the company agree a deal with Hutchison Holdings take over the running of its UK Three network, while also agreeing an 18-year roaming deal with 1&1 Mobilfunk in Germany.  In Q1 the company reported revenues of €10.74bn, a decline of 4.8%, with declines in all its major markets except the UK, which saw organic services revenues rise 5.7% to £1.7bn. Germany, Italy and Spain all saw revenues decline by 1.3%, 1.6% and 3% respectively. Its smaller South Africa market managed to see a gains of 9%. For H1 revenues are expected to come in at €21.6bn with organic services of €18.4bn, a 5% decline from the same period last year, with Spain expected to see the biggest decline of -3.4%. The UK business is forecast to see a 5.78% rise in organic growth to $2.8bn.   Burberry H1 24 – 16/11 with the share price hitting record highs back in April the outlook was looking good for Burberry, with the shares getting a lift on decent returns from the likes of LVMH, Hermes and the wider luxury sector as Asia demand surged in the wake of the relaxation of lockdown measures in China at the end of last year. Those heady highs seem a long way away now given the sharp declines seen in the luxury sector in the months since then, on the back of a sharp slowdown in demand across all of its markets, and China in particular, with the shares slipping to one-year lows earlier this month. When Burberry reported in Q1 the retailer reported an 18% rise in Q1 sales, pushing quarterly revenue up to £589m, which was below consensus forecasts.   Mainland China saw an increase of 46%, while south Asia Pacific rose 39% and Japan 44%. A poor performance from its US markets saw an 8% decline and it was this that appeared to disappoint along with the fact that various other luxury retailers have reported sharp slowdowns in luxury spending that appears to have dragged the sector lower. Burberry also left full year guidance unchanged in Q1 saying that they still expected to see low double-digit revenue growth for full year 2024.