ust

The Swing Overview – Week 25

There was a rather quiet week in which the major world stock indices shook off previous losses and have been slowly rising since Monday. However, this is probably only a temporary correction of the current bearish trend.  The CNB Bank Board met for the last time in its old composition and raised the interest rate to 7%, the highest level since 1999. However, the koruna barely reacted to this increase. The reason is that the main risks are still in place and fear of a recession keeps the markets in a risk-off sentiment that benefits the US dollar.


Macroeconomic data

We had a bit of a quiet week when it comes to macroeconomic data in the US. Industrial production data was reported, which grew by 0.2% month-on-month in May, which is less than the growth seen in April, when production grew by 1.4%. While the growth is slower than expected, it is still growth, which is a positive thing.

 

In terms of labor market data, the number of jobless claims held s

COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.04.2022 22:07
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further rise of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Yen speculators pushed their bearish bets higher for a fifth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over the past five weeks, yen bets have fallen by a total of -55,971 contracts, going from a total of -55,856 net positions on March 8th to a total of -111,827 net positions this week. Speculator positions have now slid all the way to the lowest standing of the past one hundred and eight-three weeks, dating back to October 9th of 2019. This recent weakness in yen positions and the yen price has taken place while open interest has been increasing which shows an accelerating downtrend as prices have been falling as more traders have been entering the market on the bearish side. The speculator strength index is also showing that the Japanese yen positions are at a bearish extreme position with the strength index at a zero percent level (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The fundamental backdrop has been the major driver of yen weakness. The Bank of Japan has continued on with its stimulus program and has not indicated any plans to move interest rates off their near-zero level while other central banks around the world have put the breaks on their stimulus actions and have started hiking their interest rates to try to tame inflationary pressures. The yen this week hit the lowest level in twenty years against the US dollar as the USDJPY currency pair trades above the 126.00 level. The other major currencies have all hit multi-year highs versus the yen as well. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (11,690 contracts), Brazil real (603 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,280 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,235 contracts), Bitcoin (411 contracts), Australian dollar (8,798 contracts) and the Mexican peso (14,050 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,215 contracts), Japanese yen (-7,998 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,549 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-11,296 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,836 78 29,637 77 -36,045 15 6,408 87 EUR 678,607 73 39,060 47 -60,750 59 21,690 10 GBP 246,152 68 -53,054 36 70,949 72 -17,895 19 JPY 245,403 86 -111,827 0 131,902 100 -20,075 13 CHF 41,231 16 -13,942 46 22,299 56 -8,357 39 CAD 155,390 34 12,158 59 -33,450 35 21,292 72 AUD 150,939 45 -28,715 58 17,876 32 10,839 79 NZD 37,585 20 -289 71 -429 30 718 60 MXN 175,905 38 14,960 34 -19,553 65 4,593 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 67,772 64 46,129 96 -48,954 4 2,825 98 Bitcoin 10,632 56 167 98 -439 0 272 19   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,852 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 2.2 15.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.7 68.0 3.6 – Net Position: 29,637 -36,045 6,408 – Gross Longs: 44,303 1,226 8,402 – Gross Shorts: 14,666 37,271 1,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 14.7 86.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 5.6 19.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,370 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.0 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 62.0 8.5 – Net Position: 39,060 -60,750 21,690 – Gross Longs: 221,645 359,853 79,165 – Gross Shorts: 182,585 420,603 57,475 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 58.6 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 9.7 -14.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,758 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.4 75.7 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.0 46.9 15.3 – Net Position: -53,054 70,949 -17,895 – Gross Longs: 35,514 186,343 19,803 – Gross Shorts: 88,568 115,394 37,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.8 71.6 18.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.0 33.6 -8.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -111,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 86.7 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 33.0 16.3 – Net Position: -111,827 131,902 -20,075 – Gross Longs: 9,925 212,850 20,022 – Gross Shorts: 121,752 80,948 40,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 12.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.5 25.5 -18.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,942 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,393 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 74.7 21.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.8 20.6 41.5 – Net Position: -13,942 22,299 -8,357 – Gross Longs: 1,642 30,798 8,742 – Gross Shorts: 15,584 8,499 17,099 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.6 55.9 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 1.6 -8.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,923 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.3 49.5 25.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 71.0 11.3 – Net Position: 12,158 -33,450 21,292 – Gross Longs: 37,724 76,922 38,796 – Gross Shorts: 25,566 110,372 17,504 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.8 35.4 72.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 -8.6 27.6   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.3 53.9 19.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.4 42.1 12.1 – Net Position: -28,715 17,876 10,839 – Gross Longs: 39,770 81,396 29,106 – Gross Shorts: 68,485 63,520 18,267 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.2 32.2 78.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 46.0 -52.2 49.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,569 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.4 45.9 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 47.0 8.1 – Net Position: -289 -429 718 – Gross Longs: 16,295 17,233 3,773 – Gross Shorts: 16,584 17,662 3,055 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.8 29.7 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.3 -25.5 30.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 910 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 48.8 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.9 59.9 1.7 – Net Position: 14,960 -19,553 4,593 – Gross Longs: 81,582 85,784 7,517 – Gross Shorts: 66,622 105,337 2,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 64.6 62.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.7 10.9 4.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,526 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.6 15.6 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 87.9 2.5 – Net Position: 46,129 -48,954 2,825 – Gross Longs: 52,624 10,591 4,496 – Gross Shorts: 6,495 59,545 1,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.7 3.5 97.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.2 3.3 10.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 3.6 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.6 7.7 7.4 – Net Position: 167 -439 272 – Gross Longs: 8,207 382 1,058 – Gross Shorts: 8,040 821 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.9 6.3 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 6.3 -3.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
CFD News: ASX200 returns to a key supply area

CFD News: ASX200 returns to a key supply area

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 21.04.2022 11:50
Today we are looking at the ASX200 on the daily timeframe. Price has once again returned to a key supply area. Will we see another rally stopped, or could this be a push into new records? The ASX200 has put together three solid months after a shocker to start 2022. Price 6.81% in January before buyers got back hold of things and put over 8% back on to the current point in April. So far this week, we have seen 1% added by buyers. This takes us back to a key area of supply. From roughly 7590 to 7640, we have seen two major trend reversals once price has moved into this area. 13th of August 2021 was the first rejection, and we saw the latest on the 4th of January, which led to a 9% pullback. Buyers once again have a robust medium-term uptrend in play that got going in March. Earlier this month, buyers broke out of consolidation setting up the new push back to the supply area. Will this run be different and finally break and close above 7640-7652, setting a new all-time high? The ASX has a lead on US indexes as it sits close to all-time records atm. US indexes are pushing higher despite inflation and treasury worries. Their continued momentum might be the lead that ASX buyers need to get to that next step. Australian inflation is rising as the RBA has already hinted at higher rates, but for now, that doesn’t look to be causing too much worry to the short term price. We will be watching with interest if buyers can continue to push higher or if we will see sellers flood back in once again, holding the supply area. ASX200 D1 Chart The post CFD News: ASX200 returns to a key supply area appeared first on Eightcap.
Comparison of client’s profitability among European brokers 2021

Comparison of client’s profitability among European brokers 2021

Purple Trading Purple Trading 21.04.2022 12:14
How did we come up with this data? This comparison is based on publicly available data on the percentage of retail CFD accounts that were in loss and was collected within a one year span (between 1. 4. 2021 and 31. 3. 2022). Publishing of this data is mandatory for brokerage companies operating in the EU and they have to include them as a part of so-called "disclaimers". These can be found on all marketing materials (online banners, emails, ebooks), but also in the footer on their website. One of the subchapters of this article focuses on how and where to find this data.   What does ESMA request? Online Forex trading has come a long way since its wild unregulated beginnings, and while unregulated brokerage firms or those that are less tightly regulated can still be found, Forex traders of today can rely on a much greater degree of protection than their counterparts from the past. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) provides guidelines to regulators, for example, the Cypriot CySEC, and thereafter each regulator provides guidelines and restrictions to regulated firms. EU regulations are considered to be one of the strictest, caring for the protection of clients (retail traders) and guaranteeing them a high standard of security and transparency compared to other (for example, off-shore) regulators.   How regulation protects traders? For example CySEC requires a number of guarantees and client protection mechanisms from brokerage companies, below are some of the main ones.   Negative balance protection If a trader loses more money than he had in his trading account due to an accident, adverse market fluctuations, or leverage, he/she does not have to worry about possible debt. Thanks to the new guidelines, retail traders cannot lose more money than they put into their account, if they get into the red, the debt incurred must be paid by the broker.   Segregation of client bank accounts In the early days of online Forex trading, we could often witness many fraudulent brokerage companies using their clients’ funds to enrich themselves or pay for operating expenses. Brokerage companies operating in the EU must therefore deposit all client funds in bank accounts, segregated from the company's funds, and insured against bankruptcy. This way, traders have fewer things to worry about.   Disclosure of loss rate of client accounts Every 3 months, brokerage companies must publish the loss rate of their clients' trading accounts. This is stated as a percentage and is placed in small print on each advertising banner, image, or other promotional material. You can also find it in the footer on the brokers' websites in the so-called "Disclaimer" (see picture).   Figure 1: Percentage of profitability of client accounts in the footer of Purple Trading websites ~/getmedia/897c3636-9d3b-44f4-8420-35bc0c6b5065/P-ziskovost.png Table comparing the profitability of clients of European brokers - how did we do? Because the loss rate of clients’ accounts is information that brokers are required to disclose publicly in the EU, we decided to venture to other broker’s websites in order to see how our competitors are doing. The result completely exceeded our expectations.   Table No.1: Comparison of the number of profitable client accounts of leading European brokers *This number refers to CFD retail (client) accounts and is based on data for the period from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022) Broker Number of profitable accounts in 2021* 37 % 32 % 29,25 % 29 % 28,95 % 28,76 % 27,13 % 26,97 % 26,07 % 26 % 25,6 % 24,8 % 24 % 23 % 23 % 22 % 19,5 %   As you can see, Purple Trading is among the absolute top with more than 35% of client accounts ending up in profit. Which leaves behind a large part of the competition. To some, however, a third of profitable clients may seem like a low number. However, we must take this number in the overall context of the Forex industry.   Why a third of profitable clients are such a success? It should be noted that Forex trading is one of the most challenging disciplines and as such has a very steep learning curve. In particular, beginning traders must initially go through a number of educational materials if they want to make money in this discipline. And even then, the task of the most difficult remains ahead of them - to deal with themselves and set strict rules of risk management and thus avoid the psychological pitfalls of trading.   What could be the secret behind the profitability of our clients?   Ability to respond immediately to trading opportunities Thanks to LD4 Equinix servers in London, our traders can count on lightning-fast executions and thus adequately respond to trading opportunities. If you also want to start trading with a fair Forex broker who takes his clients seriously and provides them with all the means to be truly profitable, Purple Trading is here for you.   Comparison of client’s profitability among European brokers in 2021 What our competition doesn't want you to see The profitability of client accounts of European brokers is no longer a figure that you would have to decipher from a footnote written in fine print somewhere in the depths of the terms and conditions. All brokers operating within the EU follow ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority) guidelines and must publish this number in a way that is as transparent as possible. Therefore, at Purple Trading, we decided to look at it in a more elaborate way and compare the profitability of our clients with that of our competition. And the result took our breath away!
COT Metals Speculators reduce their Gold bullish bets but positions remain strong

COT Metals Speculators reduce their Gold bullish bets but positions remain strong

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 20:45
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures has fallen for two out of the past three weeks and in four out of the past six weeks. Previously, Gold speculator positions had added bullish bets for five consecutive weeks from February 8th through March 8th and brought the speculator bullish standing to the highest level in sixty-one weeks at +274,388 contracts. The recent reduction in speculator bets and the slight cool off in the Gold price do not necessarily mean that sentiment for the shiny metal is turning. In fact, the Gold position may have greater heights in store as open interest levels have not recently touched any significant peak high (typically a surge of opinions and counter-opinions that can stop a trend especially at key levels) and the speculator strength level has not reached (or gotten close to) a bullish-extreme level (both of these levels can be signs of a top and exhaustion in trends). The net position for Gold, even after the recent weakness, remains above the 2022 weekly average of +230,004 contracts (the weekly average of all of 2021 was +204,623 contracts). So despite a rising interest rate environment (which may hurt or may help Gold), the combination of super-hot inflationary pressures, a war-time crisis and strong sentiment could help make Gold primed to stay on its bullish path. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were Silver (443 contracts) and Platinum (1,122 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-14,530 contracts), Copper (-4,510 contracts) and Palladium (-149 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,740,300 0 307,697 1 -351,252 100 43,555 76 Gold 575,202 40 239,757 60 -275,525 37 35,768 66 Silver 170,577 35 46,429 69 -63,288 37 16,859 41 Copper 203,896 29 18,840 56 -28,307 40 9,467 80 Palladium 6,435 0 -2,182 9 1,560 85 622 80 Platinum 61,603 24 7,537 13 -13,812 89 6,275 50 Natural Gas 1,144,047 14 -130,006 40 82,113 57 47,893 100 Brent 191,883 33 -40,102 44 37,663 56 2,439 42 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 762,855 36 200,098 80 -174,873 25 -25,225 28 Corn 1,625,198 42 500,612 94 -456,269 7 -44,343 18 Coffee 209,410 0 41,803 79 -45,447 24 3,644 15 Sugar 909,622 21 239,515 86 -295,470 12 55,955 77 Wheat 337,038 1 23,245 67 -20,425 21 -2,820 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 239,757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,287 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.5 22.5 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.8 70.4 3.3 – Net Position: 239,757 -275,525 35,768 – Gross Longs: 330,745 129,157 55,032 – Gross Shorts: 90,988 404,682 19,264 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.6 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.4 37.0 65.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.0 10.6 9.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,986 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.5 32.1 16.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 69.2 6.8 – Net Position: 46,429 -63,288 16,859 – Gross Longs: 69,088 54,719 28,471 – Gross Shorts: 22,659 118,007 11,612 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 36.8 41.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.9 6.2 -2.6   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,350 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.8 39.4 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.6 53.3 5.4 – Net Position: 18,840 -28,307 9,467 – Gross Longs: 83,261 80,280 20,538 – Gross Shorts: 64,421 108,587 11,071 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.9 40.0 80.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 8.1 7.0   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,415 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.9 35.1 15.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.7 57.5 4.8 – Net Position: 7,537 -13,812 6,275 – Gross Longs: 28,293 21,617 9,250 – Gross Shorts: 20,756 35,429 2,975 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.5 89.3 49.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.6 26.6 -3.5   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -149 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,033 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.9 55.5 21.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.8 31.3 11.3 – Net Position: -2,182 1,560 622 – Gross Longs: 1,475 3,573 1,349 – Gross Shorts: 3,657 2,013 727 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.1 85.4 79.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.9 12.1 -12.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 20:49
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising of bullish bets in the Canadian ‘Loonie’ dollar currency futures contracts. CAD speculators raised their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, CAD bets have improved by a total of +26,166 contracts, going from -4,940 net positions on March 22nd to +21,226 net positions this week. These gains have brought this week’s speculator level to the most bullish position since July 13th of 2021, a span of forty weeks. This recent improvement in Loonie sentiment has been helped out by the hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC recently pushed its key interest rate higher by 50 basis points on April 13th and has in the past few days hinted that more interest rate rises were to come. The recent inflation numbers out of Canada were above expectations (6.7 percent) and according to Bloomberg, market participants have pushed their odds to 100 percent for another 50 basis point hike in June. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (2,943 contracts), Japanese yen (4,640 contracts), Swiss franc (2,492 contracts), New Zealand dollar (654 contracts), Canadian dollar (9,068 contracts)and the Mexican peso (6,704 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Euro (-7,759 contracts), Brazil real (-1,557 contracts), Australian dollar (-122 contracts), Bitcoin (-361 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-5,860 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,524 77 32,580 82 -35,893 15 3,313 53 EUR 675,939 72 31,301 45 -49,726 62 18,425 5 GBP 249,529 70 -58,914 32 72,889 73 -13,975 27 JPY 251,291 90 -107,187 3 129,842 99 -22,655 7 CHF 44,269 20 -11,450 50 23,051 57 -11,601 29 CAD 153,302 32 21,226 68 -39,338 31 18,112 66 AUD 147,309 43 -28,837 58 20,800 34 8,037 72 NZD 41,098 26 365 72 503 31 -868 42 MXN 165,403 33 21,664 37 -26,214 62 4,550 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,553 68 44,572 94 -47,063 5 2,491 94 Bitcoin 11,276 61 -194 90 -175 0 369 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.6 3.3 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.9 69.1 3.5 – Net Position: 32,580 -35,893 3,313 – Gross Longs: 46,685 1,778 5,198 – Gross Shorts: 14,105 37,671 1,885 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.0 15.0 52.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 3.3 -5.8   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,060 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.7 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 61.0 8.7 – Net Position: 31,301 -49,726 18,425 – Gross Longs: 221,003 362,930 76,939 – Gross Shorts: 189,702 412,656 58,514 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.6 61.9 4.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 9.7 -10.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,054 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 74.6 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 45.4 14.4 – Net Position: -58,914 72,889 -13,975 – Gross Longs: 36,811 186,134 21,987 – Gross Shorts: 95,725 113,245 35,962 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.6 72.8 26.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.4 28.1 -2.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -107,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,827 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.1 86.0 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.7 34.3 17.3 – Net Position: -107,187 129,842 -22,655 – Gross Longs: 12,723 216,101 20,761 – Gross Shorts: 119,910 86,259 43,416 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.9 99.0 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.6 25.9 -3.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,942 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.6 71.7 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 19.6 47.9 – Net Position: -11,450 23,051 -11,601 – Gross Longs: 2,900 31,735 9,599 – Gross Shorts: 14,350 8,684 21,200 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 56.8 29.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 1.3 1.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,158 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 45.0 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 70.7 12.8 – Net Position: 21,226 -39,338 18,112 – Gross Longs: 44,063 68,989 37,784 – Gross Shorts: 22,837 108,327 19,672 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 31.1 65.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.4 -17.2 20.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.6 53.8 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 39.6 13.7 – Net Position: -28,837 20,800 8,037 – Gross Longs: 39,201 79,208 28,257 – Gross Shorts: 68,038 58,408 20,220 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 34.4 72.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 45.8 -42.8 19.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 365 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 45.9 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5 44.6 8.9 – Net Position: 365 503 -868 – Gross Longs: 19,081 18,853 2,797 – Gross Shorts: 18,716 18,350 3,665 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 31.2 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.4 -20.2 4.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,960 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 50.0 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 65.8 1.9 – Net Position: 21,664 -26,214 4,550 – Gross Longs: 73,710 82,643 7,701 – Gross Shorts: 52,046 108,857 3,151 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 61.9 62.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.4 12.1 10.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 44,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,129 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.2 17.6 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 84.3 2.5 – Net Position: 44,572 -47,063 2,491 – Gross Longs: 53,790 12,399 4,272 – Gross Shorts: 9,218 59,462 1,781 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.2 5.4 94.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 5.4 5.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.3 3.6 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.0 5.2 7.0 – Net Position: -194 -175 369 – Gross Longs: 8,263 408 1,155 – Gross Shorts: 8,457 583 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 27.4 21.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 19.8 4.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback

CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 28.04.2022 04:55
Looking at the US30 on the 8H we can see some signs that counter-rally is stalling. Price remains range-bound between 33,485 and 33,170. With inflation white-hot and the talk of recession and possible heavy rate hikes, could this be a pause before we see a new push lower by sellers? All three major US indices are showing similar patterns, but the US30 definitely looks the weaker of the three for now. After yesterday’s choppy end to the session that saw an 8H range of 602 points, price continues to sit midway at the moment with little direction. Price sits in a fast downtrend with one lower high, but this week buyers have started to put up some defence with the start of a consolidation starting to form between support and res 1. This may also be a pause before sellers try to get going again. Res 2 is another point of resistance holding for sellers currently and if we are to start thinking buyer recovery we would like to see both points beaten with a new higher low to show demand. If sellers are able to get the show back on track we would be looking for a break of support to show that they have beaten buyers for now. The market looks to be waiting on something to give it direction and that might just come later this week with US advanced GDP due at 8:30 EST today and US core PCE price index which is a primary inflation measure for the FED. With the current climate around inflation, this could be key data. It’s due out Friday at 8:30 EST. US30 8H Chart The post CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback appeared first on Eightcap.
Stocks turn negative on Wall Street

Crypto News: (ARUSD) Arweave, rally watch as buyers clear $27

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 27.04.2022 03:53
Today our focus is on Arweave (ARUSD). Buyers, for now, have pulled back most of yesterday’s losses and continue to push at a possible engulfing bar pattern. Last month, price was supported by news 17M was raised to help make Arweaves data storage blockchain more usable. Up until today, thing’s haven’t been the best for Arweave, with the last four weeks of trade being lower. A shift has started this week, and we can see buyers trying to pull back from losses. Pattern focus, for now, remains on the daily. Today’s candle is close to forming an engulfing bar which sits just above a level of demand. A fair bit of pressure remains on today’s bar. We really want to see a firm close that really needs to beat yesterday’s open or high, and we would prefer to see a close above yesterday’s high, confirming the bar pattern. A close at that point should also lift the CCI above the 0, moving back into a bullish area and set up a break of the current downtrend. If those are achieved by the end of today’s NY session, we could be seeing a new up-leg developing. If price retraces today and closes below $27, that would cancel out the engulfing idea. If heavy selling resumes, a break of the demand area would suggest that the current downtrend has further to run. If we do see a new move higher get going, we have marked two levels of potential resistance, but we would think that key resistance could be the first real test if reached. Arweave D1 Chart The post Crypto News: Arweave, rally watch as buyers clear $27 appeared first on Eightcap.
Crypto Focus: A Week of Indecision and Dogecoin on the Up?

Crypto Focus: A Week of Indecision and Dogecoin on the Up?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 29.04.2022 13:27
It’s been another week of wide ranges with little direction. That’s not to say we didn’t see both sides try. A few of the top 25 saw solid selling, both AVAX and XRP were hit with sell-offs, while the more significant coins like BTH and ETH fought back off lows forming spinner type candles. Bitcoin traded above 40K during the week but couldn’t hold the level. On the positive, 38,900 continues to hold firm for buyers. APE coin had a massive week adding 57% ahead of its metaverse launch. Doge had a massive week, and we will touch on that further below. Aside from its massive jump, the coin can also now be used for rent payments. On the topic of payments, a Dubi real-estate developer will accept BTC and ETH for purchases of luxury homes. During the week, we did see a few small signs that buyers were trying to get a move going, but a lot like last week, we saw those signals fade as selling resumed. A fair few of the top 25 took heavy selling on Friday’s session, and that was refected as the CRYPTO25 indexes were leading the CRYPTO10 index lower. DogeCoin was the talking point last week. The coin is linked to Elon Musk regularly, and once news of his offer to buy Twitter was accepted, we saw a dramatic rally on the coin. Price jumped as much as 30% higher on the news, but the move was short-lived as a touch over 10% was taken off the following session. Since Tuesday, we have seen every direction on Doge as it looks like traders are trying to work out what Monday’s spike meant. Looking at the daily we have a solid looking range in play, and this could set up a straddle play. A straddle is where a trader places buys above the range and sells below the range. (one cancels over an option to avoid being double filled). If that spike is valid, the question that may need to be answered by traders is if we did see a breakout lower, could it retrace Monday’s spike retesting lows set on the 25th or if we break higher could we see a new test of 0.17? Until we see some direction, the market may remain rangebound. Be wary of tests out of the range, as false breaks can be very painful for breakout traders. In all trading, risk management is an essential part of the trader’s strategy. (The straddle example is an example based on Friday’s chart. The daily chart will have changed, and the range may not be in place by the time of posting) DOGE Chart Here’s 4-hour chart as well just in case you prefer it The post Crypto Focus: A Week of Indecision and Dogecoin on the Up? appeared first on Eightcap.
Crypto News: Is LiteCoin starting new bounce off key support?

Crypto News: Is LiteCoin starting new bounce off key support?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 04.05.2022 06:55
Today’s focus is on Litecoin as price has started a new push higher after holding once again at 97.15 key support. Most coins are firm at this point in the day as buyer interest continues to pick up. We saw this yesterday, but things changed in the US session, and gains turned to losses. Could today be different? It’s a hard call as the FOMC is due in today’s US session, and a lot may come down to the FOMC statement and what it spells for rates moving forward. Recently crypto hasn’t reacted well to Fed policy adjustment news to help rein in inflation. Rates are expected to rise today, but could that be factored in? The real worry could be if the Fed commits to a very aggressive stance that exceeds market expectations. That could put pressure on risk markets to the USD and give the USD a boost. As noted, crypto has not reacted well in these situations, so it could be an interesting FOMC today. Back onto today’s focus, Litecoin looks to be setting up from a solid base with 97.15 key support holding for buyers since January this year. Since that point, we are yet to see a close below that support level. We have seen a few false starts off it, but while it continues to hold, there continues to be a floor for buyers. If things support crypto markets today after the FOMC, could we see today’s rally extend and break the current fast downtrend? Buyers do face some resistance at 100.35 and 103.90. If we see these levels cleared, that could be a good sign that buyers are trying to get a new up leg going. If we see a rally follow on, the next test will be the downtrend that caps the current descending triangle pattern. The CCI has also moved above the 0 point showing bullish conditions. We stress again today’s FOMC could have an impact on the current picture. The FOMC statement and federal funds rate is due at 4:00 am AEST, and the press conference follows at 4:30 am AEST. LiteCoin D1 Chart The post Crypto News: Is LiteCoin starting new bounce off key support? appeared first on Eightcap.
Copper Speculator bets fall to 2-year low as China lockdowns dent demand

Copper Speculator bets fall to 2-year low as China lockdowns dent demand

Invest Macro Invest Macro 07.05.2022 11:55
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures has fallen for two consecutive weeks and by a total of -19,408 contracts over that time-frame. This weakness has dropped the current standing for Copper net positions into a bearish position for a second straight week. Last week was the first time Copper has been in a bearish position since June 2nd of 2020, a span of ninety-nine weeks. This week’s further decline in speculator bets brings the current net standing (-15,623 contracts) to the lowest level in two years, dating back to May 5th of 2020. Weighing heavily on the Copper sentiment is the shut downs in China due to Covid-19 outbreaks, particularly in Shanghai and Beijing. China is among the largest producers of Copper in the world and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world with the red metal being used in numerous manufacturing processes, industries and electronics being produced in the country. Any prolonged slowdown in China economic activity will have an outsized effect on the current demand for Copper. The Copper price has pulled back recently with declines in each of the last four weeks that has taken approximately 10 percent off the futures price. Copper has been on a torrid bullish run that started in March 2020 when the pandemic burst open globally. Since the lows in March of 2020, Copper’s price rose by over 100 percent and now currently trades around the $4.25 per pound futures level. The only metals market we cover with higher speculator bets this week was Platinum (+816 contracts) while the markets with lower spec bets were Silver (-7,338 contracts), Gold (-18,856 contracts), Copper (-11,838 contracts) and Palladium (-245 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-03-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,751,564 2 321,701 6 -366,213 94 44,512 78 Gold 560,441 31 199,168 42 -231,852 55 32,684 57 Silver 137,692 5 28,068 50 -39,317 60 11,249 8 Copper 185,255 16 -15,623 31 10,080 66 5,543 57 Palladium 7,638 6 -2,752 6 2,455 90 297 61 Platinum 66,545 33 -1,541 1 -3,667 100 5,208 35 Natural Gas 1,138,319 12 -117,706 43 72,861 54 44,845 92 Brent 168,128 14 -27,318 65 26,014 37 1,304 27 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 700,856 22 190,402 77 -165,353 27 -25,049 29 Corn 1,513,880 23 501,865 94 -451,210 8 -50,655 14 Coffee 206,337 1 40,697 77 -43,007 28 2,310 5 Sugar 818,627 1 201,592 78 -236,394 23 34,802 51 Wheat 319,233 0 20,012 60 -14,225 30 -5,787 82   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 199,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 218,024 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.4 23.3 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.8 64.7 3.3 – Net Position: 199,168 -231,852 32,684 – Gross Longs: 293,439 130,795 51,270 – Gross Shorts: 94,271 362,647 18,586 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.1 55.4 57.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.3 17.9 -2.5   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,406 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.2 36.4 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.8 65.0 9.2 – Net Position: 28,068 -39,317 11,249 – Gross Longs: 56,764 50,184 23,860 – Gross Shorts: 28,696 89,501 12,611 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.3 60.3 8.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.8 24.8 -31.2   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,785 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.4 46.7 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.8 41.2 6.7 – Net Position: -15,623 10,080 5,543 – Gross Longs: 65,590 86,458 18,009 – Gross Shorts: 81,213 76,378 12,466 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.1 66.4 57.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.6 30.7 -13.0   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,357 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.4 38.8 13.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.7 44.3 5.6 – Net Position: -1,541 -3,667 5,208 – Gross Longs: 29,516 25,830 8,956 – Gross Shorts: 31,057 29,497 3,748 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.2 100.0 34.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.5 32.3 -28.3   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,507 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.7 59.8 16.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.8 27.7 13.0 – Net Position: -2,752 2,455 297 – Gross Longs: 973 4,567 1,290 – Gross Shorts: 3,725 2,112 993 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.8 90.5 61.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.8 12.7 -38.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Invest Macro Invest Macro 07.05.2022 14:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the continued drop in speculator bets for European common currency futures contracts. Euro speculators reduced their bets for the third straight week this week and have now trimmed the net position by a total of -45,438 contracts over this three-week period. This decreasing sentiment among speculators accelerated this week with a large drop of -28,579 contracts and knocked the net contract level back into a bearish position for the first time since the beginning of October 2021. The fundamental backdrop for the euro is one of weak growth and low interest rates compared to many of the other major currency countries. The Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of 2022 amounted to just 0.2 percent growth following a fourth quarter of 2021 growth reading of 0.3 percent. The war in Ukraine combined with surging inflation and weakening consumer demand has some banks believing a GDP contraction could be on the horizon while others see parity in the euro versus the US dollar as inevitable. Eurozone interest rates are forecasted to rise this year but they have been behind their major currency counterparts. The US, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand have all raised their benchmark interest rates over the past quarter and look likely to see more over the year, possibly widening the interest rate differential even more if the European Central Bank does not act. This week was a very rare week when all the currencies we cover had lower speculator bets including the Euro (-28,579 contracts), Canadian dollar (-11,852 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,676 contracts), Mexican peso (-5,503 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,259 contracts), Brazil real (-5,096 contracts), British pound sterling (-4,192 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,038 contracts), US Dollar Index (-808 contracts), Australian dollar (-865 contracts) and Bitcoin (-24 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-03-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,092 76 33,071 83 -35,684 15 2,613 45 EUR 694,926 80 -6,378 33 -24,586 69 30,964 26 GBP 268,496 82 -73,813 21 89,026 82 -15,213 24 JPY 254,813 92 -100,794 7 120,264 94 -19,470 14 CHF 49,385 31 -13,907 46 30,542 68 -16,635 7 CAD 152,779 32 9,029 56 -12,959 51 3,930 38 AUD 152,257 46 -28,516 58 34,225 44 -5,709 39 NZD 50,844 45 -6,610 60 9,879 46 -3,269 14 MXN 151,933 27 14,623 34 -18,552 65 3,929 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,549 56 41,788 91 -43,371 9 1,583 83 Bitcoin 10,051 52 388 100 -429 0 41 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,879 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.5 2.7 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.4 68.6 5.0 – Net Position: 33,071 -35,684 2,613 – Gross Longs: 46,264 1,439 5,296 – Gross Shorts: 13,193 37,123 2,683 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.8 15.3 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -3.6 -13.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,201 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 55.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 58.7 8.2 – Net Position: -6,378 -24,586 30,964 – Gross Longs: 208,449 383,222 88,267 – Gross Shorts: 214,827 407,808 57,303 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.0 69.0 25.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 6.2 13.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -73,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,621 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 77.7 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 44.6 13.3 – Net Position: -73,813 89,026 -15,213 – Gross Longs: 33,536 208,754 20,590 – Gross Shorts: 107,349 119,728 35,803 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.8 82.3 24.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 22.8 -4.3   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -100,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,535 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.3 84.6 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.8 37.4 14.7 – Net Position: -100,794 120,264 -19,470 – Gross Longs: 18,585 215,563 18,007 – Gross Shorts: 119,379 95,299 37,477 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.8 94.3 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.5 13.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,869 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 75.8 15.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.0 13.9 48.7 – Net Position: -13,907 30,542 -16,635 – Gross Longs: 4,357 37,429 7,397 – Gross Shorts: 18,264 6,887 24,032 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 5.4 to 1 0.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 68.3 7.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.6 11.9 -14.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,881 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.2 47.5 21.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.3 56.0 18.4 – Net Position: 9,029 -12,959 3,930 – Gross Longs: 44,670 72,629 32,093 – Gross Shorts: 35,641 85,588 28,163 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.7 51.2 37.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -4.0 -17.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,651 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.9 52.6 14.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 30.2 17.8 – Net Position: -28,516 34,225 -5,709 – Gross Longs: 46,995 80,147 21,330 – Gross Shorts: 75,511 45,922 27,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.4 44.4 38.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.0 -10.6 -20.8   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 60.6 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.3 41.1 11.2 – Net Position: -6,610 9,879 -3,269 – Gross Longs: 17,427 30,789 2,423 – Gross Shorts: 24,037 20,910 5,692 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.2 45.6 14.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.3 18.4 -32.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 14,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,126 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.0 52.3 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 64.5 1.9 – Net Position: 14,623 -18,552 3,929 – Gross Longs: 63,860 79,394 6,771 – Gross Shorts: 49,237 97,946 2,842 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.6 65.1 59.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.9 -13.5 -0.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,884 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.2 13.5 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 83.9 2.8 – Net Position: 41,788 -43,371 1,583 – Gross Longs: 49,991 8,280 3,278 – Gross Shorts: 8,203 51,651 1,695 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.4 9.0 83.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.2 1.1 -15.4     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 412 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 3.0 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.9 7.2 8.2 – Net Position: 388 -429 41 – Gross Longs: 8,121 298 867 – Gross Shorts: 7,733 727 826 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.5 7.1 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.0 4.2 -10.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra -  Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol

Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.05.2022 12:37
Summary A look into Terra (UST) coin. Luna and Terra coins. Advantages of holding Terra coin. Past present and future prices. Read next: Making Interest On Crypto Holdings!? Aqru: Cryptocurrency Staking Platform  Terra is a public blockchain protocol. Terra is a public blockchain protocol that deploys a suite of algorithmic decentralised stablecoins which underpin a thriving ecosystem which brings decentralised finance to a large number of users. Terra assets are supported by leading blockchains. Stablecoins are coins whose value is pegged to a cryptocurrency, fiat currency or to exchange-traded commodities. Terra USD was created in January 2018 and was launched in late 2021. Terra has a market cap of $4.391 Billion, a circulating supply of 407.49 million with no maximum supply. Terra is the leader of decentralised and open-source publics blockchain protocol for algorithmic stablecoins Terra is the leading decentralised and open-source public blockchain protocol for algorithmic stablecoins. The protocol uses a combination of open market arbitrage, incentives and decentralised oracle voting. With this combination, Terra makes stablecoins that track the price of any fiat currency. Read next: (USDC) USD Coin, What Is It And How Does It Work? - Important Altcoins !| FXMAG.COM The Terra ecosystem is a rapidly expanding network of decentralised applications, creating a demand for Terra and pushing Lunas price up. Terra is an industry-leading decentralised stablecoin reflected by $USDT. It has a vibrant Smart Contracts platform. Terra has a thriving cross-chain DeFi environment. Terra is built on the Cosmos SDK & Tendermint consensus. Terra and Luna: the 2 main coins of the protocol. Luna is Terra’s native staking coin which absorbs the Terras price volatility. Luna is used for mining and governance. Users stake Luna coins to validators who then record and verify transactions on the blockchain in exchange for rewards from transaction fees. The more Terra is used the more Luna is worth. Luna provides its holders with staking rewards and governance power. Terra stablecoins track the price of fiat currencies: Users make new Terra coins by burning Luna. Terra and Luna are always tradeable at a 1:1. 1 USD can be traded for 1 UST. Stablecoins and Terra: The main feature of the Terra protocol is its stablecoins, the TerraUSD coin can be used like fiat currency with added blockchain benefits: lower fees, faster settlement processing times, instant transactions and unchangeable public ledger. If stablecoins maintain their price pegs they are considered valuable. Terra protocol determines the price of the Terra coin using the basic markerket forces of supply and demand - when demand is high, supply is low and therefore the price increases. The protocol keeps the price stable by ensuring supply and demand is balanced. Terra protocols algorithmic market module helps to keep the price stable, which incentivises the burning of Terra through arbitrage opportunities. Arbitrage refers to the making of money on an asset through price differentials between markets. Scalability of Terra: Terras protocol is scalable, which is designed to maintain Terras price stability regardless of volatility, demand or market size. Scalability refers to the ability of Terra’s protocol to receive a large influx of transactions at a time. Terra offers rewards for holding the coin Terras protocol incentivises validators and delegators with staking rewards, in the form of gas and swap fees Gas: to avoid spamming, fees are computed onto each transaction. Validators have the power to add minimum gas prices and reject transactions that have implied gas prices below their set level of. Swap fees: tobin tax refers to the fee for swapping Terra UST stable denominations. Spread fees refer to the price discrepancy between Terra and Luna. The swap fees are directed to the Oracle reward pool, which are then distributed over two years to validators who faithfully report correct Oracle prices. Advantages of holding Terra UST There are many advantages of holding Terra coin, it is decentralised and permissionless which makes it ideal for the economy. Interoperability: this means it is able to run on multiple chains. Terra is live on Ethereum and Solana with plans of expansion in the future. Programmable: development focused agenda, which allows programmers to build smart contracts in Rust, Go and Assemblyscript. Oracles are off-chain sensors that have the ability to communicate data to-and-from the blockchain. Streamlined Financial: Terra aims to reduce or completely remove the need for credit card networks, banks and payment getaways with a single blockchain layer. The Sustainability Of Terra Terras coin uses a proof-of-stake model, which means validators verify transactions based on the number of coins they hold. Proof-of-stake models are less energy intensive than some competing models. Past, present and future price movements Terras price has been stable in the past thanks to its market module based on supply and demand. However, investor fears around the general state of the market has been causing the crypto market to see sufficient drops in prices. Investors see the future price of Terra to see substantial increases in the future when markets start to normalise. Terra USD Price Chart Read next: What Is (DYDX)? dYdX Cryptocurrency Supporting Perpetual Trading - Altcoins of Interest  Sources: coinwut.com, finance.yahoo.com, terra.money, securities.io, investorplace.com
(UST) Terra Luna crashes and further shakes confidence in the entire crypto market

(UST) Terra Luna crashes and further shakes confidence in the entire crypto market

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 12.05.2022 15:35
Terra Luna Crashes The recent crash of one of the most well known cryptocurrencies has added to the widespread panic that has been surrounding the risky asset class. The fall started while the company's stable coin, UST, was unable to maintain its parity with the USD and quickly tumbled as more investors opted to save whatever they had left and exit their positions. While Terra Luna is not the only crypto to be dropping significantly in the last few days, with the entire top 100 down around 30-50% and market cap falling to $1,19 Trillion, it is certainly one of the most prominent examples seen to date of a complete collapse. This event has deeply shaken investor confidence in the asset class and has even led to the most prominent stable coin , USDT losing its 1:1 ratio with the USD. As the situation continues to evolve it seems like this could be the beginning of a significant realignment in the crypto industry as investors either exit their positions or re-evaluate them in search of some sort of a safe haven amid a widespread crash. It is important to note though that the majority of risk-on assets have been deeply impacted by worsening global economic conditions and central bank policies so while this situation is not exclusive to crypto's it is certainly most prominent with them. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM UK GDP report disappoints and pressures GBP and FTSE100 The UK GDP report was released at 7:00 am BST and turned out to be a huge disappointment with the report showing a 0.8% QoQ expansion in Q1 2022 while the market expected an expansion of 1% QoQ. However, March's monthly GDP reading was the biggest disappointment with the monthly reading which was expected to show a 0.1% expansion from February levels and instead showing a 0.1% MoM contraction. March was the first full month since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and could be seen as a potential sign of economic difficulties to come. Investors reacted negatively to this news with both the British Pound and FTSE100 taking a hit as the global sentiment continues to shift more towards risk-off   Furthermore, the Bank of England warned that tightening and current geopolitical developments are likely to push the UK economy into recession. Investors reacted negatively to this news with both the British Pound and FTSE100 taking a hit as the global sentiment continues to shift more towards risk-off. Read next: Tech Stocks Plunging!? Trade Desk Earnings Announcement Pushes Tech Giant Stock Down, Russian Ruble Strengthening and Ford Motor Co. 
Stablecoins losing stability – is Tether losing its peg too? | Saxo Bank

Stablecoins losing stability – is Tether losing its peg too? | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 12.05.2022 16:15
Summary:  Over the past couple of days, UST, one of the major crypto stablecoins, completely lost its peg with the US dollar, and today the biggest stablecoin, Tether, has shown signs of a similar trend. In this article, we zoom in on the difference between three of the biggest stablecoins and discuss the potential impact that de-pegging may have on the general crypto market. - co-written by Mads Eberhardt, Cryptocurrency Analyst Stablecoins are crypto tokens that have their value pegged to another currency or asset. The most popular stablecoins are USDT (Tether), USDC, and UST (Terra), which all are created to have the value of $1. Apart from providing crypto traders with a store-of-value within the crypto space linked to fiat currencies, stablecoins play important roles in many of the decentralized applications build on blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. Read next: Saxo Bank: Markets are assessing the global growth outlook and the pace of Fed tightening| FXMAG.COM The crash of the Terra stablecoin in the beginning of the week has shaken the crypto markets, and UST is currently trading at $0.60 - way below $1.00. This morning the contagion spread to the rest of the stablecoin space with USDT dropping as low as $0.96, however bouncing back to $0.99 this afternoon. It should be noted that other stablecoins are trading above $1.00 as they seem to be receiving value from some of the unpopular stablecoins. Source: Coinmarketcap.com Stablecoin collateral To understand why the stablecoins are suddenly not stable anymore, it is crucial to understand the collateral type for the different stablecoins. We focus on the three mentioned above. Terra (UST) relies on a swap function to maintain its peg through an associated crypto token, LUNA, as 1 UST can always be swapped for $1 worth of LUNA. We elaborate more in the appendix below. But in short, UST is not collateralized by anything other than the market’s belief that LUNA will always have value to some and thus always have interested buyers, and this belief is anyway closely related to the value they see in UST. This belief from the market in LUNA is exactly what is missing right now, disabling the pegging mechanism. During Terra’s recent rally, many also criticized Terra for basically being non-collateralized due to this structure, as it does not have any backing in physical assets. Read next: Philip Morris Buys Match, Fed Members Spills The Tea And Gold Price Nears Quite Low Values | Saxo Bank| FXMAG.COM The second-largest stablecoin USDC is, however, backed 100 % by reserves in cash and cash equivalents such as short-term highly liquid investments. This is fundamentally different from the collateral in UST, and USDC is thus seen as a much more stable peg to the US dollar. The largest stablecoin, Tether, does reportedly have around 85% of its reserves in cash and cash equivalents and the rest in other assets such as corporate bonds and other digital tokens. However, Tether has earlier faced controversies when it comes to transparency around its dollar reserves, so the market has for years questioned what assets its reserve consists of and whether Tether in reality keeps full reserve to back its stablecoin. These controversies are likely what is driving stablecoin investors away from USDT, as the event of UST has refreshed the market’s memory of Tether’s lack of transparency with respect to its reserve. The sell-off in USDT this morning occurred even after the CTO of Tether posted on Twitter that they were continuing to honor USDT redemptions at $1 and that the redemption of more than $300mn has been carried out over the past 24 hours. And as it looks for now, Tether is making a comeback towards the $1.00 level. Regulators may become more harsh The whole narrative of Bitcoin and especially stablecoins is now heavily under pressure, although it is important to emphasize that not all stablecoins are currently under pressure – only those where investors doubt the collateral mechanism. But it is not only investors, who are worried. Regulators and policymakers are still working on national and international regulations for the cryptocurrency space, and fear is now that the regulatory framework will be even more strict, and it could limit some of the existing use-cases for cryptocurrencies. In case potential applications for cryptocurrencies are constrained, the sentiment will likely go down as well. Appendix - Additional reading for those interested in the Terra: Terra had over $18bn worth of stablecoin issued prior to the bank run of its stablecoin. For Terra, there are two tokens. Its stablecoin called TerraUSD (UST) and LUNA. LUNA has no value other than the fact that you can always create and redeem 1 TerraUSD (intended to be worth $1) for $1 worth of LUNA and vice versa. When you create TerraUSD, the LUNA is burnt and TerraUSD is created. When you redeem TerraUSD, it is burnt and LUNA is created. Since you are paying or receiving $1 worth of LUNA for every TerraUSD you create or redeem, people are intended to arbitrage, so TerraUSD is as close to $1 at all times. For instance, let us say TerraUSD falls to $0.95. By buying TerraUSD at $0.95, you can technically redeem it for $1 worth of LUNA, selling it for fiat and earning 5 cents. As mentioned above, TerraUSD is not collateralized by anything other than the market’s belief that LUNA will always have somewhat of a value, which belief is anyway closely related to TerraUSD. Since Terra started gaining momentum last year, people have criticized this structure, as it is basically non-collateralized. The Terra foundation responded by buying $1.5bn worth of Bitcoins at the beginning of this year to show some collateralization. This means that Terra was suddenly solely around 10% collateralized in another highly volatile asset and due to the fact that the foundation controlled the small collateralization there was, Terra was suddenly not that decentralized. Over the weekend, some traders started selling a lot of TerraUSD to un-peg it from the dollar, among some other things. When the un-peg occurred, people started to redeem TerraUSD for $1 worth of LUNA and sell LUNA to fiat to cover their position. This LUNA is created by new and when dumped on the market, the price of LUNA plunges. When the next redeems TerraUSD for LUNA, they need to get credited by even more LUNA. Suddenly not only TerraUSD holders are pushing the LUNA price down, but other traders see it and go short LUNA, pushing the price further down. Now, you have the death spiral. LUNA plunges even more, while more and more LUNA is needed to be issued to redeem one additional TerraUSD. At the same time, there is a cap on how many can redeem TerraUSD to $1 worth of LUNA per hour. People that cannot redeem it start to get nervous and dumps TerraUSD directly to USD or other assets on exchanges, de-pegging it further from $1. As this happens, few want to do arbitrage, because they cannot instantly redeem it for LUNA and sell it for fiat since there is a maximum the protocol can redeem per hour. LUNA's supply has increased 20-fold in the past few days from around 346mn to 7.1bn LUNA to redeem some of its TerraUSD supply. At the same time, its market capitalization has plunged by over 99%. LUNA currently has a market capitalization of $138mn, but technically it still needs to redeem 12bn TerraUSD for $1 each. This means that LUNA is going through hyperinflation, if it will be possible to redeem every UST at all since there is close to no demand for LUNA. Source: Saxo Bank
Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses

Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 13.05.2022 07:19
Well, what can we say about this last week? It was a horrific week on the crypto boards, with most coins plunging. The selling got going last weekend and peaked with a real market crash on Thursday. 200 billion of value was wiped off just on Thursday’s session alone. Bitcoin hit 25,338 USD at its lowest point on Thursday, and Ethereum touched $1702, setting new year lows. The rout wasn’t just about those two. The top 25 index coin index we quote cashed by 45.18% to its low on Thursday. Why did this happen? As the week went on, a few stories started to emerge. UST was the main influence, and it had a catastrophic effect on Terra Luna, which we will get to later. UST is a stable coin; these coins are meant to be pegged in value to the USD and, in theory, should be at the 1:1 value. UST is a little different as it’s an algorithmic stable coin under-pinned by code rather than cash held in reserve. This is where the trouble began. As UST fell under $1 the cracks opened and fear set in. Selling accelerated, and its value slipped down to .41 cents. This had disastrous consequences for its sister currency Terra Luna which has a floating price and was designed to absorb UST price shocks. Terra crashed on UST failure to hold value and ended Thursday’s session under 1 US cent. We’re talking at 99% plunge! This was catastrophic for traders and investors that owned LUNA as many exchanges slowed to craw trying to deal with the mass of sell orders hitting the exchanges. Pressure on bitcoin, the Luna Foundation owned a mass of bitcoin used to shore up terra in times of crisis. Talk suggested large amounts had been sold to deal with the terra issue and this compounded/added to the panic selling that session. The story continues, tether the world’s largest stable coin, also dipped below $1 US, sending a shock through the markets of a contagion. This added to the panic. It’s difficult to tell what may happen next, but from watching the events this week, it’s important you remain vigilant as this volatility continues. I’m not an industry expert, but from watching the events this week, it’s something that came to my mind.This week’s focus is a sad one, but we can’t skip over Terra Luna. I’m not going to say much more on it as the meat is above. It’s a terrible event as, yes, some might think it’s cool to see markets destroyed, but there’s a personal loss in there as many investors believed in terra and now may face very unfortunate situations. The post Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets mostly cool off this week

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets mostly cool off this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:46
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Soft commodities speculator bets cooled off this week with nine out of the eleven markets we cover showing a decrease in their positioning. Soft commodities markets have been red hot this year with the war in Ukraine causing food disruptions, general production problems, food protectionism and, of course, with inflation rising throughout the world. Overall, the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were just Soybean Oil (3,305 contracts) and Wheat (1,674 contracts). Meanwhile, the soft commodities that saw lower speculator bets on the week were Corn (-30,957 contracts), Sugar (-14,407 contracts), Coffee (-8,142 contracts), Soybeans (-15,794 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,429 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,233 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,671 contracts), Cotton (-1,674 contracts) and Cocoa (-15,513 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,736,594 0 310,803 2 -354,479 98 43,676 77 Gold 571,447 34 193,315 40 -227,756 57 34,441 57 Silver 142,752 9 19,082 41 -30,519 69 11,437 9 Copper 184,502 15 -22,626 26 19,249 73 3,377 45 Palladium 8,832 11 -3,245 3 3,434 96 -189 33 Platinum 66,064 32 1,363 5 -5,373 98 4,010 18 Natural Gas 1,108,451 6 -112,529 45 64,006 51 48,523 100 Brent 173,911 19 -31,215 59 30,562 44 653 18 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 694,454 20 174,608 72 -147,698 33 -26,910 26 Corn 1,510,783 23 470,908 90 -415,345 13 -55,563 11 Coffee 212,659 5 32,555 69 -33,559 37 1,004 0 Sugar 797,453 0 187,185 75 -220,611 26 33,426 49 Wheat 308,326 0 21,686 48 -17,779 34 -3,907 92   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 470,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 501,865 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.9 42.7 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 70.2 12.6 – Net Position: 470,908 -415,345 -55,563 – Gross Longs: 573,327 644,830 134,903 – Gross Shorts: 102,419 1,060,175 190,466 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 12.8 11.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.4 1.3 1.1   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 187,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,592 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 45.8 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.0 73.5 6.6 – Net Position: 187,185 -220,611 33,426 – Gross Longs: 251,330 365,263 86,129 – Gross Shorts: 64,145 585,874 52,703 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.1 26.3 49.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -3.4 -9.6   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 32,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,697 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.8 56.1 3.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.5 71.9 3.1 – Net Position: 32,555 -33,559 1,004 – Gross Longs: 50,564 119,399 7,690 – Gross Shorts: 18,009 152,958 6,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.2 36.5 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 7.3 -20.9   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 174,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190,402 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 48.2 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.3 69.5 11.0 – Net Position: 174,608 -147,698 -26,910 – Gross Longs: 225,260 334,792 49,376 – Gross Shorts: 50,652 482,490 76,286 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 33.1 25.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 7.8 1.3   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 100,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,291 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.0 45.8 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 77.9 5.0 – Net Position: 100,596 -118,831 18,235 – Gross Longs: 118,463 169,761 36,820 – Gross Shorts: 17,867 288,592 18,585 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.6 21.8 81.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -8.6 10.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 84,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,561 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 47.1 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 77.1 5.9 – Net Position: 84,132 -108,059 23,927 – Gross Longs: 110,648 169,583 45,065 – Gross Shorts: 26,516 277,642 21,138 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.3 26.8 57.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.0 22.2 -25.5   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,036 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.0 38.1 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.1 49.7 12.1 – Net Position: 39,803 -35,783 -4,020 – Gross Longs: 111,188 117,509 33,291 – Gross Shorts: 71,385 153,292 37,311 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.5 66.7 67.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.7 8.4 22.1   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,031 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 38.0 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.1 43.0 12.8 – Net Position: 16,360 -10,817 -5,543 – Gross Longs: 66,483 82,353 22,102 – Gross Shorts: 50,123 93,170 27,645 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 80.7 67.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -40.1 40.4 13.7   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 81,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,433 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.8 33.8 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 79.6 3.1 – Net Position: 81,759 -92,603 10,844 – Gross Longs: 94,579 68,251 17,191 – Gross Shorts: 12,820 160,854 6,347 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.4 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.8 23.9 81.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 2.7 -14.1   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,559 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 44.1 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 53.6 4.0 – Net Position: 21,046 -26,770 5,724 – Gross Longs: 87,140 124,216 17,042 – Gross Shorts: 66,094 150,986 11,318 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 59.9 53.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.3 21.1 -30.6   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,012 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.2 39.1 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 44.9 10.9 – Net Position: 21,686 -17,779 -3,907 – Gross Longs: 111,546 120,631 29,835 – Gross Shorts: 89,860 138,410 33,742 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 34.4 92.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.4 -11.9 1.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
UK economy slides into recession

COT Currency Speculators raised British Pound Sterling bearish bets for 10th week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:26
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data this week was the rise in bearish bets for the British pound sterling currency futures contracts. Pound speculators have raised their bearish bets for a tenth consecutive week this week and for the eleventh time out of the past twelve weeks. Over the past ten-week time-frame, pound bets have dropped by a total of -79,261 contracts, going from -337 net positions on March 1st to a total of -79,598 net positions this week. The deterioration in speculator sentiment has now pushed the pound net position to the most bearish standing of the past one hundred and thirty-seven weeks, dating back to September 24th of 2019. Pound sterling sentiment has been hit by a recent slowing economy as the UK GDP declined by 0.1 percent in March after flat growth in February. Also, weighing on the UK economy is the war in Ukraine that has sharply raised inflation in the country (and elsewhere) and which could see the UK economy with the lowest growth rate among G7 countries in 2023, according to the IMF. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (22,907 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,705 contracts), Bitcoin (315 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-9,660 contracts), Australian dollar (-13,198 contracts), Brazil real (-1,010 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,856 contracts), British pound sterling (-5,785 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,386 contracts), Canadian dollar (-14,436 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 57,556 84 34,776 86 -37,174 13 2,398 43 EUR 705,046 84 16,529 40 -43,026 64 26,497 18 GBP 264,594 80 -79,598 17 95,245 86 -15,647 23 JPY 247,278 87 -110,454 1 124,927 97 -14,473 24 CHF 51,282 37 -15,763 40 29,819 69 -14,056 16 CAD 151,009 31 -5,407 38 2,939 67 2,468 35 AUD 153,209 47 -41,714 46 47,126 54 -5,412 39 NZD 56,235 56 -12,996 49 16,874 56 -3,878 7 MXN 153,858 28 16,725 34 -20,866 64 4,141 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,450 55 40,778 90 -42,031 10 1,253 79 Bitcoin 10,841 57 703 100 -789 0 86 15 Open Interest is the amount of contracts that were live in the marketplace at time of data. US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,071 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.6 3.2 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.2 67.8 4.5 – Net Position: 34,776 -37,174 2,398 – Gross Longs: 49,864 1,837 4,970 – Gross Shorts: 15,088 39,011 2,572 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 12.8 42.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.6 -3.4 -19.3   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,378 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 53.3 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.0 59.4 8.3 – Net Position: 16,529 -43,026 26,497 – Gross Longs: 228,230 376,043 84,921 – Gross Shorts: 211,701 419,069 58,424 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 63.8 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 1.2 0.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -79,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,813 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.1 79.6 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.2 43.6 13.5 – Net Position: -79,598 95,245 -15,647 – Gross Longs: 29,469 210,627 20,157 – Gross Shorts: 109,067 115,382 35,804 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.6 86.0 23.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.5 25.6 -7.7   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,794 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 86.2 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.2 35.7 13.9 – Net Position: -110,454 124,927 -14,473 – Gross Longs: 11,196 213,084 19,811 – Gross Shorts: 121,650 88,157 34,284 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.8 96.6 24.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.1 0.0 16.7   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,907 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.2 74.6 16.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 16.5 43.5 – Net Position: -15,763 29,819 -14,056 – Gross Longs: 4,727 38,258 8,271 – Gross Shorts: 20,490 8,439 22,327 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 69.2 15.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 8.0 -7.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,029 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.6 49.8 21.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 47.9 20.1 – Net Position: -5,407 2,939 2,468 – Gross Longs: 38,679 75,215 32,880 – Gross Shorts: 44,086 72,276 30,412 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 66.9 34.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.0 14.5 -29.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,516 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.1 59.9 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.3 29.1 16.7 – Net Position: -41,714 47,126 -5,412 – Gross Longs: 36,869 91,731 20,131 – Gross Shorts: 78,583 44,605 25,543 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 54.0 39.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.3 4.7 -34.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.0 68.5 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 38.5 10.8 – Net Position: -12,996 16,874 -3,878 – Gross Longs: 15,203 38,541 2,216 – Gross Shorts: 28,199 21,667 6,094 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.5 56.4 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.4 26.0 -54.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,623 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.5 53.1 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.7 66.7 1.5 – Net Position: 16,725 -20,866 4,141 – Gross Longs: 63,921 81,735 6,467 – Gross Shorts: 47,196 102,601 2,326 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 64.1 60.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.6 -10.1 -3.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,788 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 15.4 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 83.8 3.0 – Net Position: 40,778 -42,031 1,253 – Gross Longs: 48,835 9,454 3,070 – Gross Shorts: 8,057 51,485 1,817 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 10.3 79.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 3.5 -20.6   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 388 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.1 2.1 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.6 9.4 8.3 – Net Position: 703 -789 86 – Gross Longs: 8,789 227 989 – Gross Shorts: 8,086 1,016 903 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 14.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.0 -24.9 -13.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Swing Overview - Week 18 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 18 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 16.05.2022 10:51
The Swing Overview - Week 18 In the war against rising inflation, central banks in the US, the UK and Australia raised interest rates this week. Britain, meanwhile, warned of the risk of a recession. The CNB also raised rates. They have thus reached their highest levels since 1999. The key interest rate in the Czech Republic is now 5.75%.   The main stock indices have weakened strongly in response to the monetary tightening policies of the major economies and are at significant support levels. The negative sentiment on the indices is confirmed by the VIX fear indicator, which is above 30. The US dollar, on the other hand, continues to ride on the winning wave. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.5% The Fed raised rates by 0.5% points on Wednesday as expected, the highest jump in 22 years. This took the interest rate to 1%. The Fed chief announced that further half a percentage point rate hikes will continue at the next meetings in June and July. Powell also stated that the US economy is doing well and that it can withstand interest rate hikes without the risk of a recession and a significant increase in unemployment.   In addition to the rate hike, the Fed announced that in June it would begin reducing the assets on the bank's balance sheet that the central bank had accumulated during the pandemic. In June, July and August, the Fed will sell $45 billion of assets a month, and starting in September it will sell $95 billion a month.   Although Powell ruled out a 0.75% rate hike at the next meetings, interest rate futures markets continue to expect that possibility with about an 80% probability. Figure 1: The CME Fed Watch tool projections of the target interest rate for the next Fed meeting on June 15, 2022 Based on these expectations, US 10-year Treasury yields continue to strengthen and have surpassed the 3% mark. The US dollar is also strengthening and it is at the highest level since January 2017 and approaching 104.  Figure 2: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices remain under pressure The SP 500 index initially rallied strongly following the announcement of the rate hike, after Powell ruled out a 0.75% rate hike in subsequent meetings. However, markets gave back all the gains the following day as interest rate futures continue to estimate an 80% probability that the next rate hike, which will take place in June 2022, will be 0.75%.   Figure 3: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart Thus, in terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index continues to move in a downtrend below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages with resistance, according to the 4 H chart, at 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance, according to the H4 chart, is 4,360 - 4,365.  Strong resistance is at 4,500. The current support is 4 070 - 4 100.   German DAX index German industrial orders fell by 4.7% in March, which is more than expected. A major contributor to this negative result was a reduction in orders from abroad as the war in Ukraine hit demand in the manufacturing sector. The outlook is negative and some analysts suggest that the German economy is heading into recession. The reasons are the war in Ukraine, problems in supply chains and high inflation. The Dax index confirms these negative outlooks with a downward trend. Figure 4: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index continues to move below the SMA 100 on the daily chart and on the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. Resistance is 14,300 - 14,330. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The outlook for the euro remains negative HSBC bank on Thursday significantly cut its forecast for the euro, saying it expects the euro to weaken to parity against the US dollar this year, the first major investment bank to make such a prediction.   The post-pandemic economic environment, which has been damaged by the ongoing war in Ukraine, looks challenging for the European economy, potentially forcing the European Central Bank to tighten policy slowly compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has begun an aggressive rate-hiking cycle.  This has raised the prospect of the single currency falling to levels not seen in two decades. HSBC said it expects the move to happen by the fourth quarter of 2022.   ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said this week that rates may need to be raised as early as July. The precursor to any rate hike must be an end to bond purchases and that could come in late June. Markets are pricing in a 90 basis point tightening in rates this year.   Figure 5: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The EUR/USD pair is in a clear downtrend with resistance at 1.0650 - 1.071. The important support is 1.05, but it has already been tested several times and could be broken soon. The next support is from January 2017 at around 1.0350 - 1.040.   The Czech koruna got another injection in the form of an interest rate hike The CNB raised the interest rate by 0.75%, which exceeded analysts' expectations who projected a 0.50% rise. The current rate now stands at 5.75%, the highest since 1999. Consumer price growth continues to rise and by raising the interest rate the central bank is trying to dampen this growth by raising the interest rate. Inflation is expected to reach 15% by mid-year. The CNB has an inflation target of 2% and inflation is expected to reach these levels in 2024.   The problem is economic growth, which is slowing significantly.  But maintaining price stability is clearly more important than the negative effects of higher rates on the real economy.  Figure 6: The USD/CZK and the EUR/CZK on the daily chart The Czech koruna has so far done best on the pair with the euro, as interest rates are zero on the euro. The koruna has been weakening significantly on the USD pair in recent days. The current significant resistance on the USD/CZK is CZK 23.50 per dollar and on the EUR/CZK it is 24.70.    Bank of England warned of recession and more than 10% inflation The Bank of England sent out a strong warning that Britain faces the twin dangers of recession and inflation above 10% when it raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 1% on Thursday. The pound fell more than a cent against the US dollar and hit its lowest level since mid-2020, below $1.24, as the gloominess of the BoE's new forecasts for the world's fifth-largest economy caught investors off guard.    The BoE also said it was also concerned about the impact of renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in China, which threaten to hit supply chains again and increase inflationary pressures.    The BoE's rate hike was the fourth since December, the fastest pace of policy tightening in 25 years. The central bank also revised up its price growth forecasts, which suggest it will peak above 10% in the final three months of this year. Previously, it had expected it to peak at around 8% in April. Markets expect interest rates to reach 2-2.25% by the end of 2022.  Figure 7: The GBP/USD on weekly and daily charts In terms of technical analysis, the GBP/USD is in a downtrend. The pound is trading at levels below 1.24 pounds per dollar and has reached to the support of 1.225-1.2330. The nearest resistance according to the weekly chart is at 1.2700-1.2750.   
The Swing Overview - Week 19 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 19 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 16.05.2022 10:59
The Swing Overview - Week 19 Stock indices continued to weaken strongly last week, while the US dollar has already surpassed the mark 104 and is at 20-year highs. However, a set of important data is behind us, which could bring some temporary relief to the equity markets. The Czech koruna weakened sharply after the appointment of the new CNB Governor Ales Michl, who is a proponent of a dovish approach. Thus, the rise in interest rates in the Czech Republic appears to be close to its peak.   Macroeconomic data The US consumer inflation for April was reported on Wednesday, which came in at 8.3% on year-on-year basis. Analysts were expecting inflation to be 8.1%. Although the figure achieved was higher than expectations, it was still lower than the 8.5% inflation figure achieved in March. On a month-on-month basis, the price increase in April was 0.3%, significantly lower than in March when prices rose by 1.5%.   On Thursday, industrial inflation was reported at 8.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month for April.   The positive thing about this data is that inflation declined from previous readings. However, it is important to note that the year-on-year comparison is based on data where inflation was also higher in the previous year due to the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.   The Fed chief reiterated that he expects another 0.50% point rise in interest rates at the next two Fed meetings. He also mentioned that a higher rate hike cannot be ruled out if necessary.   The US 10-year bond yields came down from their peak and made a slight correction. However, the US dollar continued to strengthen and broke the resistance at 104. The dollar is thus at 20-year highs. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices heavily oversold The strong dollar, rising US bond yields, the war in Ukraine and the effects of the lockdown in China were the main reasons for the decline in equity indices. The SP 500 index hit 3,860, the lowest level since March 2021. This is also where long-term support is. However, the important macro data is behind us and the market has processed all the available fundamental information. This could bring temporary relief to the markets and the index could make an upward correction. The fall in 10-year bond yields, gives this move some boost as well.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart However, from a technical analysis perspective, the US SP 500 index remains in a current downtrend as the markets have formed lower low and is also below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages on the H4 and daily charts. The nearest resistance is 4040 - 4070. The next resistance is at 4,140 and especially 4,293 - 4,300. The support is at 3,860 - 3,900.   German DAX index In macroeconomic data, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment for May was reported last week and showed a reading of -34.3, an improvement from the previous month's reading of -41.0. Inflation in Germany for April is at 7.4% on year-on-year basis and up 0.8% from March (the previous month's increase was 2.5%). Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index continues to move in a downtrend along with the major world indices. The price has reached the SMA 100 moving average on the H4 chart, which tends to signal resistance in a downtrend. The price is moving below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,300 - 14,330. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The big sell-off in the euro continues The euro fell to 1.0356 against the dollar, the lowest value since January 2017. This value is also an area of significant support where price could stall. Fundamentally, the euro's depreciation is due to the strong dollar and the Fed's hawkish policy, which contrasts with the ECB's policy of not raising rates yet.    Figure 4: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart Eurozone inflation data will be reported next week, which could be an important catalyst for further movement. The significant support is priced around 1.0350 - 1.040. The current resistance is at 1.05.   Czech koruna weakened strongly on the new governor appointment The President Miloš Zeman surprised with the appointment of Ales Michl for the governor of the CNB. Michl is known for his dovish views, having spoken out against raising interest rates at recent meetings. His appointment was welcomed in the markets by a strong depreciation of the Czech koruna. However, the bank later intervened in the markets by selling part of its foreign exchange reserves to prevent further depreciation of the Czech koruna.   It is important to know that the Bank's monetary policy is decided by the seven-member Bank Board. So far, the proportion for voting on rate hikes has been 5:2. But by the end of June, the president must appoint 3 new board members. This could significantly change the voting ratio on the board and set a new course for the bank's policy, which would mean a halt to the rise in interest rates. However, it is likely that at the June board meeting the board, still with the old composition, will decide on further interest rate increases. Figure 5: The USD/CZK and the EUR/CZK on the daily chart The Czech koruna has reached 24.36 against the dollar and 25.47 against the euro, from which it started to descend after the CNB interventions.  
Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery

Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 20.05.2022 15:34
Let’s just say things have been a lot more settled this week than last week’s bloodbath. The top 10 and 25 indexes remain positive on Friday. But it’s very little pulled back compared to the damage done over the last 6-weeks. A few headlines that caught our attention this week, Ripple partnered with a Lithuanian firm for cross-border payments. Attention remains on Ethereum as it prepares to merge and just hangs on to the 2000 USD level. Tether is said to be partially backed by non-US government bonds. Is this meant to give us confidence after the stable coins fiasco last week? Talk emerging around debt defaults by El Salvador. The country famously made Bitcoin legal tender and was reported to have bought large parcels on the coin. The pressure continued this week as BTC fell below 29K. Price has moved back above 30K, but pressure remains on the country after this move. Ranges are the topic of a lot of the top ten at this point in the week. We discussed this in detail in our Bitcoin report earlier today, and it’s not really a surprise based on last week’s trade. We want to point out the weekly demand areas and support areas we are seeing holding on several coins. Definitely take a look at some of the top 10 on their weekly charts to see the areas and levels we have brought up. Continuing on from this, we want to show an example of this. As you can see below, Bitcoin weekly has held for now from the 28,600 – 30,000 area. Last week’s plunge failed to break this level, and it remains key weekly support for now. While this level remains in play, we will look for buyers to continue to consolidate.   The post Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Metals Speculators have cooled off their Gold and Copper bets

COT Metals Speculators have cooled off their Gold and Copper bets

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 11:40
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decrease in the Gold and Copper speculative positions. Gold speculator bets fell this week for the fifth straight week and for the eighth time in the past ten weeks as sentiment for the shiny metal has dulled over the past few months. This latest 5-week decline has amounted to a total reduction of -78,927 contracts from the speculator position. The current speculator standing for Gold remains in bullish position but has descended to lowest level of the past fifteen weeks (at +175,360 contracts), dating back to early February. Despite the speculator decline, the gold price rebounded by over 1 percent this week (close near $1,842 per ounce) following four straight weeks of decline that brought the Gold futures price down from a high of over $2,000 per ounce in mid-April to roughly $1,800 per ounce to close out last week. Copper speculator bets have also cooled over the past couple months and fell this week for the sixth consecutive week. This decline has taken a whopping -60,550 contracts off the speculator position and has dropped the spec level from +36,142 contracts on April 5th to -24,408 contracts this week. This week’s total marks the lowest level for Copper bets in the past 109 weeks, dating back to April 14th of 2020. The slowdown in the Chinese economy and the Covid shutdowns in China have put a dent in the Copper sentiment as China is one of the largest world producers of Copper and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were just Platinum (840 contracts) and Palladium (30 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-17,955 contracts), Silver (-2,968 contracts) and Copper (-1,782 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 175,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,315 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.9 24.8 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.4 62.0 3.4 – Net Position: 175,360 -206,879 31,519 – Gross Longs: 283,011 137,687 50,588 – Gross Shorts: 107,651 344,566 19,069 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 64.8 48.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 26.1 -5.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,082 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.4 37.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.3 54.7 10.0 – Net Position: 16,114 -24,841 8,727 – Gross Longs: 59,857 54,287 23,121 – Gross Shorts: 43,743 79,128 14,394 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 74.5 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.8 34.5 -34.4   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,626 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 53.6 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.9 41.4 7.6 – Net Position: -24,408 23,059 1,349 – Gross Longs: 53,159 101,533 15,747 – Gross Shorts: 77,567 78,474 14,398 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.8 75.3 33.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.6 45.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,363 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 39.4 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.5 49.6 5.4 – Net Position: 2,203 -6,697 4,494 – Gross Longs: 28,253 26,002 8,051 – Gross Shorts: 26,050 32,699 3,557 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.8 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 15.5 -29.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,245 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 62.7 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 22.9 15.7 – Net Position: -3,215 3,621 -406 – Gross Longs: 996 5,712 1,021 – Gross Shorts: 4,211 2,091 1,427 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.2 97.1 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 12.4 -58.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Forex Speculators weaken Commodity Currency sentiment over last month - 22.05.2022

Forex Speculators weaken Commodity Currency sentiment over last month - 22.05.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:34
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Click for larger image Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the commodity currency speculator positions that have been on the defensive in recent weeks. Canadian dollar positions declined for a fourth straight week this week and have fallen by a total of -35,722 contracts over the past four weeks. This has pushed the overall speculator standing into a bearish position for a second straight week and to the most bearish level since October 2021. Previously, from the middle of January, CAD positions had started to trend higher and mostly maintained a bullish position into April, reaching a 40-week high on April 19th before seeing speculator sentiment weaken (-14,496 contracts this week). Australian dollar spec positions slipped for a third straight week this week and the overall speculator position has now hit a 7-week low. Aussie positions have maintained a bearish speculator bias since last May (52 consecutive weeks in bearish territory) but had recently seen a reprieve of the weak sentiment. Aussie positions improved strongly from late-February to late-April with a 10-week contract rise of +59,043 positions from February 22nd to April 26th. The speculator positions hit the least bearish level (on April 26th) of the previous 42 weeks before these past 3 weeks has seen speculators re-up their bearish levels. New Zealand dollar speculators also added to their bearish bets for a fourth straight week and have now pushed the position to the most bearish level since March 17th of 2020, a span of 113 weeks. Kiwi speculator positions had spent almost all of 2021 in bullish levels but spec bets started to falter at the end of the year and into the new year (through early March). Recently, positions had turned positive to bullish positioning in the middle of March and again later in April before turning lower in recent weeks. The NZD speculator sentiment has now been in bearish territory for the past three weeks after dropping by a total of -18,132 contracts from April 26th to this week. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,437 contracts), Japanese yen (8,145 contracts), Euro (3,810 contracts), British pound sterling (357 contracts), Bitcoin (103 contracts) and the Mexican peso (11,490 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the New Zealand dollar (-4,771 contracts), Canadian dollar (-9,089 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,928 contracts), Brazil real (-2,683 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-829 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,899 93 36,213 88 -39,506 9 3,293 53 EUR 706,712 85 20,339 41 -51,517 61 31,178 26 GBP 253,811 73 -79,241 17 94,344 85 -15,103 24 JPY 241,308 83 -102,309 6 115,062 92 -12,753 28 CHF 53,291 42 -16,592 37 31,181 72 -14,589 14 CAD 151,585 31 -14,496 28 12,591 75 1,905 34 AUD 163,809 55 -44,642 43 54,437 59 -9,795 29 NZD 60,804 64 -17,767 41 21,390 63 -3,623 10 MXN 170,924 36 28,215 39 -32,249 59 4,034 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 55,990 48 38,095 88 -39,436 13 1,341 80 Bitcoin 11,644 63 806 100 -875 0 69 15   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,776 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.5 3.4 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.0 67.2 3.5 – Net Position: 36,213 -39,506 3,293 – Gross Longs: 53,519 2,105 5,449 – Gross Shorts: 17,306 41,611 2,156 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.2 9.0 52.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.5 -7.2 -0.5   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 20,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,529 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 52.7 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.8 59.9 7.7 – Net Position: 20,339 -51,517 31,178 – Gross Longs: 230,770 372,113 85,455 – Gross Shorts: 210,431 423,630 54,277 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.2 61.4 26.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.2 -0.5 14.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,598 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.5 79.4 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.7 42.3 14.1 – Net Position: -79,241 94,344 -15,103 – Gross Longs: 26,613 201,647 20,811 – Gross Shorts: 105,854 107,303 35,914 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.9 85.5 24.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.0 21.6 1.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -102,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,454 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 84.7 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.4 37.0 14.0 – Net Position: -102,309 115,062 -12,753 – Gross Longs: 12,113 204,417 20,933 – Gross Shorts: 114,422 89,355 33,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.9 91.8 27.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -5.0 17.6   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.8 74.5 15.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.0 16.0 42.6 – Net Position: -16,592 31,181 -14,589 – Gross Longs: 5,240 39,722 8,094 – Gross Shorts: 21,832 8,541 22,683 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.7 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 72.3 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 12.9 -19.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,407 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.8 52.7 20.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 44.4 19.3 – Net Position: -14,496 12,591 1,905 – Gross Longs: 36,069 79,825 31,228 – Gross Shorts: 50,565 67,234 29,323 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.5 75.0 33.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.4 33.9 -43.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 60.4 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.6 27.1 17.7 – Net Position: -44,642 54,437 -9,795 – Gross Longs: 41,473 98,903 19,187 – Gross Shorts: 86,115 44,466 28,982 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.4 59.5 28.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.6 24.0 -60.9   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -17,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,996 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 71.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.9 35.9 9.8 – Net Position: -17,767 21,390 -3,623 – Gross Longs: 14,998 43,219 2,358 – Gross Shorts: 32,765 21,829 5,981 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.5 63.4 10.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.2 32.7 -57.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,725 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.5 49.1 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.0 67.9 1.7 – Net Position: 28,215 -32,249 4,034 – Gross Longs: 77,819 83,844 7,000 – Gross Shorts: 49,604 116,093 2,966 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 59.4 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.6 -11.0 -3.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,778 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.8 16.9 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.7 87.3 3.7 – Net Position: 38,095 -39,436 1,341 – Gross Longs: 42,989 9,470 3,438 – Gross Shorts: 4,894 48,906 2,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.8 12.8 80.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 8.3 -12.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 703 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 82.1 1.7 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.2 9.2 8.7 – Net Position: 806 -875 69 – Gross Longs: 9,564 194 1,081 – Gross Shorts: 8,758 1,069 1,012 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 14.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.1 -29.8 -13.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.  
WCU: Recession fears drive steep commodity declines

COT Metals Speculators have cooled off their Gold and Copper bets - 22.05.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decrease in the Gold and Copper speculative positions. Gold speculator bets fell this week for the fifth straight week and for the eighth time in the past ten weeks as sentiment for the shiny metal has dulled over the past few months. This latest 5-week decline has amounted to a total reduction of -78,927 contracts from the speculator position. The current speculator standing for Gold remains in bullish position but has descended to lowest level of the past fifteen weeks (at +175,360 contracts), dating back to early February. Despite the speculator decline, the gold price rebounded by over 1 percent this week (close near $1,842 per ounce) following four straight weeks of decline that brought the Gold futures price down from a high of over $2,000 per ounce in mid-April to roughly $1,800 per ounce to close out last week. Copper speculator bets have also cooled over the past couple months and fell this week for the sixth consecutive week. This decline has taken a whopping -60,550 contracts off the speculator position and has dropped the spec level from +36,142 contracts on April 5th to -24,408 contracts this week. This week’s total marks the lowest level for Copper bets in the past 109 weeks, dating back to April 14th of 2020. The slowdown in the Chinese economy and the Covid shutdowns in China have put a dent in the Copper sentiment as China is one of the largest world producers of Copper and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were just Platinum (840 contracts) and Palladium (30 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-17,955 contracts), Silver (-2,968 contracts) and Copper (-1,782 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 175,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,315 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.9 24.8 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.4 62.0 3.4 – Net Position: 175,360 -206,879 31,519 – Gross Longs: 283,011 137,687 50,588 – Gross Shorts: 107,651 344,566 19,069 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 64.8 48.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 26.1 -5.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,082 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.4 37.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.3 54.7 10.0 – Net Position: 16,114 -24,841 8,727 – Gross Longs: 59,857 54,287 23,121 – Gross Shorts: 43,743 79,128 14,394 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 74.5 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.8 34.5 -34.4   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,626 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 53.6 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.9 41.4 7.6 – Net Position: -24,408 23,059 1,349 – Gross Longs: 53,159 101,533 15,747 – Gross Shorts: 77,567 78,474 14,398 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.8 75.3 33.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.6 45.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,363 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 39.4 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.5 49.6 5.4 – Net Position: 2,203 -6,697 4,494 – Gross Longs: 28,253 26,002 8,051 – Gross Shorts: 26,050 32,699 3,557 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.8 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 15.5 -29.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,245 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 62.7 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 22.9 15.7 – Net Position: -3,215 3,621 -406 – Gross Longs: 996 5,712 1,021 – Gross Shorts: 4,211 2,091 1,427 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.2 97.1 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 12.4 -58.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Crypto Focus: Markets Continue to Ride the Downtrend

Crypto Focus: Markets Continue to Ride the Downtrend

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 27.05.2022 12:26
Another lower week traders as the top 10 and top 25 lost further gains continuing the current downtrend. If this week closes lower, that will set 8 weekly lower bars in a row. We discussed a few coins this week, emphasising continuation patterns that formed during the week. We did see some confirmations yesterday as sellers got things back on their terms in the European session. BTC fought back from lows abut sellers regained control on Friday’s session. AVAX was one of the significant coins hardest hit as it set new monthly lows. One positive is that the top 10 didn’t retest their May lows despite most hitting new weekly lows. As noted, buyers resisted the pressure with ranges and consolidations ruling before Thursday’s push lower. ETH seen to be dropping over merger frustration. Confidence drop? Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd once saw Bitcoin hitting $400,000. Now he says it’s more like $8,000. LUNA 2.0 blockchain was approved this week. After the fundamental weakness that we all saw with our own two eyes, we wish that any readers thinking about this should approach with caution and use strict risk management if they choose to go ahead. Ripple, on the other hand, has seen solid buying as price has declined. Reports say whales have been quietly accumulating the coin during this week’s declines and we can see this on the charts today. XRP is this week’s focus due to this buying. XRP caught our attention as it started edging into the positive while other coins continued to see red. Let’s take a look at the daily chart. Price continues to see support and demand from 0.38. We see two failed lows this month, and while price remains above the latter one, we will continue to look at it as a new HL. Price sits in a descending triangle pattern. A break higher, and this could be a new leg higher in the making. A break lower and we will look for the current downtrend to continue. The post Crypto Focus: Markets Continue to Ride the Downtrend appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Week 21 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed

COT Week 21 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 19:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy was WTI Crude Oil (9,124 contracts) and Natural Gas (3,442 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (126 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-4,422 contracts) with Gasoline (-1,373 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71 Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37 Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3 Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27 Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25 Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34 Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93 Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21 Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11 Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4 Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65 Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 334,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 325,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 34.1 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.1 56.0 2.7 – Net Position: 334,761 -374,627 39,866 – Gross Longs: 422,541 584,496 86,091 – Gross Shorts: 87,780 959,123 46,225 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.5 90.7 71.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.5 -9.3 -8.4   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 52.6 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.2 32.2 2.7 – Net Position: -39,289 37,488 1,801 – Gross Longs: 27,144 96,551 6,828 – Gross Shorts: 66,433 59,063 5,027 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.2 55.6 33.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.0 5.9 -7.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -111,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,012 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 37.4 6.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 31.6 2.4 – Net Position: -111,570 63,847 47,723 – Gross Longs: 230,219 413,701 74,555 – Gross Shorts: 341,789 349,854 26,832 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 51.0 93.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -8.4 0.9   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,798 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 55.0 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.9 69.1 4.0 – Net Position: 32,425 -43,599 11,174 – Gross Longs: 72,517 170,888 23,596 – Gross Shorts: 40,092 214,487 12,422 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.1 93.4 87.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 6.6 16.3   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,639 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 65.8 26.2 1.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 93.5 0.0 0.4 – Net Position: -9,513 9,010 503 – Gross Longs: 22,645 9,010 636 – Gross Shorts: 32,158 0 133 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 4.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.1 27.9 37.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.8 3.4 -5.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators raise bets for Copper and Gold after multi-week slides

COT Metals Speculators raise bets for Copper and Gold after multi-week slides

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 21:00
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the bounce-back in Gold and Copper speculator bets after multiple down weeks for both of these metals. Copper positions saw a small turnaround with a +4,775 contract gain this week after falling for six consecutive weeks which amounted to a total drop by -60,550 net positions from April 12th to May 17th. Copper has been particularly hard hit by the lockdowns in China and the effect that it has had on the industrial and manufacturing economy there. Copper speculator bets have now been oscillating at the lowest levels in approximately two years. Gold positions, meanwhile, rose by +8,453 contracts this week after declining in the previous five weeks and by a total of -78,927 contracts in that period. Gold bullish bets are under the +200,000 net contract level for a fourth straight week after spending the previous ten weeks above that threshold. Currently in 2022, Gold positions are averaging +221,416 weekly contracts so far compared to an average of +204,623 weekly contracts over 2021 and an average of +262,052 weekly contracts over 2020. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were Gold (8,453 contracts) and Copper (4,775 contracts) while the markets with declining speculator bets this week were Silver (-2,011 contracts), Platinum (-718 contracts) and Palladium (-257 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71 Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37 Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3 Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27 Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25 Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34 Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93 Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21 Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11 Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4 Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65 Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 183,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,360 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.2 24.6 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.6 64.6 3.6 – Net Position: 183,813 -211,947 28,134 – Gross Longs: 282,202 130,364 47,411 – Gross Shorts: 98,389 342,311 19,277 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.0 81.5 37.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -35.7 35.7 -18.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,114 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.1 38.9 15.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.5 54.8 9.5 – Net Position: 14,103 -23,297 9,194 – Gross Longs: 58,748 56,910 23,064 – Gross Shorts: 44,645 80,207 13,870 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 87.6 2.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.9 45.6 -46.6   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,408 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 53.3 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.6 42.9 7.9 – Net Position: -19,633 19,288 345 – Gross Longs: 54,130 99,318 14,993 – Gross Shorts: 73,763 80,030 14,648 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.2 72.7 27.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.9 33.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -718 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,203 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.6 41.0 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.3 51.2 5.1 – Net Position: 1,485 -6,683 5,198 – Gross Longs: 26,052 27,002 8,533 – Gross Shorts: 24,567 33,685 3,335 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.5 95.8 34.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.0 9.0 -22.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.2 70.1 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.0 22.2 16.4 – Net Position: -3,472 3,800 -328 – Gross Longs: 729 5,555 974 – Gross Shorts: 4,201 1,755 1,302 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.7 98.1 24.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 13.7 -55.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 21:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Click to Enlarge Highlighting the COT currency data is the bounce-back for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculative positions jumped by over +18,000 contracts this week and rose for a third consecutive week. This week marked the second time in the past three weeks that speculator positions increased by more than +18,000 contracts (+22,907 contracts on May 10th) and now Euro bets have gained by a total of +45,308 contracts over the past three weeks. The speculator’s bullish position marks the highest standing of the past six weeks at +38,930 contracts. Euro speculator positions had recently fallen into a bearish speculative level on May 3rd (-6,378 contracts) after dropping by a total of -45,438 contracts from April 19th to May 3rd. This was the first bearish position for the Euro since early January. The speculator sentiment has been weaker so far in 2022 compared to preceding years as Euro bets are averaging just +29,199 weekly contracts in 2022. This compares to the Euro bets average of +60,837 weekly contracts over 2021 and an average of +92,464 weekly contracts over 2020. The recent improvement in Euro positions comes amid increasing expectations for the European Central Bank to start raising interest rates higher and end their negative interest rate regime in the third quarter. The Euro exchange rate recently hit its lowest level versus the US Dollar since January of 2017 with a drop to approximately 1.350 (EUR/USD) on May 13th. Since then, the Euro has rallied over the past couple of weeks and closed Friday at the 1.0733 exchange rate. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (18,591 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,826 contracts), Japanese yen (2,865 contracts), Brazil real (619 contracts), Canadian dollar (1,809 contracts), Mexican peso (1,577 contracts) and Bitcoin (43 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Australian dollar (-804 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,081 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,131 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-1,554 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,857 93 38,039 91 -40,877 7 2,838 48 EUR 708,938 86 38,930 47 -72,600 55 33,670 30 GBP 253,864 73 -80,372 16 97,042 87 -16,670 21 JPY 237,256 80 -99,444 8 106,699 88 -7,255 39 CHF 49,918 38 -19,673 31 31,694 76 -12,021 17 CAD 138,508 22 -12,687 30 6,933 71 5,754 41 AUD 158,615 51 -45,446 43 53,269 59 -7,823 33 NZD 59,279 61 -19,321 39 22,703 65 -3,382 13 MXN 177,125 39 29,792 40 -34,352 58 4,560 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 63,976 59 38,714 88 -40,501 12 1,787 86 Bitcoin 11,729 64 849 100 -817 0 -32 12   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,213 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.8 3.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 69.6 3.6 – Net Position: 38,039 -40,877 2,838 – Gross Longs: 53,675 2,157 5,076 – Gross Shorts: 15,636 43,034 2,238 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.4 6.7 47.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.5 -8.0 -39.1   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,339 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.4 51.7 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.9 61.9 7.6 – Net Position: 38,930 -72,600 33,670 – Gross Longs: 237,072 366,345 87,892 – Gross Shorts: 198,142 438,945 54,222 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 55.4 30.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.0 -3.4 19.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,241 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.2 80.3 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.9 42.1 14.1 – Net Position: -80,372 97,042 -16,670 – Gross Longs: 25,936 203,802 19,107 – Gross Shorts: 106,308 106,760 35,777 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.1 87.1 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.7 15.4 2.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,309 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 81.0 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 36.0 13.5 – Net Position: -99,444 106,699 -7,255 – Gross Longs: 16,567 192,215 24,858 – Gross Shorts: 116,011 85,516 32,113 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.6 87.7 38.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.6 -12.3 26.0   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,592 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.7 80.0 16.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.1 16.5 40.7 – Net Position: -19,673 31,694 -12,021 – Gross Longs: 1,355 39,913 8,308 – Gross Shorts: 21,028 8,219 20,329 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.8 76.2 16.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 12.1 -12.4   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,496 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.9 54.1 23.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 49.1 19.0 – Net Position: -12,687 6,933 5,754 – Gross Longs: 28,999 74,953 32,048 – Gross Shorts: 41,686 68,020 26,294 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.4 71.1 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 32.1 -30.9   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,642 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.1 62.7 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.7 29.1 16.7 – Net Position: -45,446 53,269 -7,823 – Gross Longs: 36,579 99,401 18,615 – Gross Shorts: 82,025 46,132 26,438 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.7 58.6 33.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.5 26.4 -45.5   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,767 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.1 76.7 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.7 38.4 9.4 – Net Position: -19,321 22,703 -3,382 – Gross Longs: 10,749 45,458 2,202 – Gross Shorts: 30,070 22,755 5,584 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.8 65.4 13.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 35.7 -46.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.9 47.7 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 67.1 1.7 – Net Position: 29,792 -34,352 4,560 – Gross Longs: 83,031 84,474 7,605 – Gross Shorts: 53,239 118,826 3,045 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 58.5 62.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -6.2 -0.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,095 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 70.5 22.1 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.9 85.4 3.2 – Net Position: 38,714 -40,501 1,787 – Gross Longs: 45,076 14,132 3,826 – Gross Shorts: 6,362 54,633 2,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.4 11.8 85.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 8.2 -12.2   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 43 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 82.9 1.2 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.7 8.2 9.4 – Net Position: 849 -817 -32 – Gross Longs: 9,723 141 1,072 – Gross Shorts: 8,874 958 1,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 3.6 12.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.0 -23.6 -6.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
CFD News: Eyes on the GER30 as buyers look to be forming a continuation.

CFD News: Eyes on the GER30 as buyers look to be forming a continuation.

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 02.06.2022 10:18
Today we’re watching the GER30 as price looks to be setting a new continuation idea. We need to see a strong close today, but for now, in the European session, signs are looking ok. This idea and pattern is a very close copy of what we discussed ed in the US30 article but just from a different take. The GER30 has set a fast trend of the new primary trend. This trend has also broken the downtrend, and today has started to form new support from an old area of resistance which could confirm as a new demand area. Last week we saw the first break of that resistance area, and today we could be seeing it become support. If we see a higher close today and a follow-up rally tomorrow, that could set us up with a date at last week’s high that also lines up with resistance. A break above that area, and yes, we could have a new up leg on our hands. A failure to beat that resistance level or a fade on today’s rally with further selling tomorrow that takes us back below the demand area is a worry and could suggest buyer strength might not be as strong as we are thinking now. Another possible curve ball could be from tomorrow’s NFP data. Payrolls are expected to come in lower and average earnings higher. A miss could send stocks lower, and a beat should have a positive impact. The NFP will be released at 8:30 EST tomorrow. GER30 D1 Chart The post CFD News: Eyes on the GER30 as buyers look to be forming a continuation. appeared first on Eightcap.
The Swing Overview – Week 20 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 20 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 02.06.2022 16:36
The Swing Overview – Week 20 The markets remain volatile and fragile, as shown by the VIX fear index, which has again surpassed the level 30 points. However, equity indices are at interesting supports and there could be some short-term recovery. The euro has bounced off its support in anticipation of tighter monetary policy and the gold is holding its price tag above $1,800 per troy ounce. Is the gold back in investors' favor again? Macroeconomic data The week started with a set of worse data from the Chinese economy, which showed that industrial production contracted by 2.9% year-on-year basis and the retail sales fell by 11.1%. The data shows the latest measures for the country's current COVID-19 outbreak are taking a toll on the economy. To support the slowing economy, China cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.15% on Friday morning, more than analysts expected. While this will not be enough to stave off current downside risks, markets may respond to expectation of more easing in the future. On a positive note, data from the US showed retail sales rose by 0.9% in April and industrial production rose by 1.1% in April. Inflation data in Europe was important. It showed that inflation in the euro area slowed down a little, reaching 7.4% in April compared to 7.5% in March. In Canada, on the other hand, the inflation continued to rise, reaching 6.8% (6.7% in March) and in the UK inflation was 9% in April (7% in the previous month). Several factors are contributing to the higher inflation figures: the ongoing war in Ukraine, problems in logistics chains and the effects of the lockdown in China. Concerns about the impact of higher inflation are showing up in the bond market. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield has come down from the 3.2% it reached on 9 May and is currently at 2.8%. This means that demand for bonds is rising and they are once again becoming an asset for times of uncertainty.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on a daily chart   Equity indices on supports Global equities fell significantly in the past week, reaching significant price supports. Thus, there could be some form of short-term bounce. Although a cautious rally began on Thursday, which was then boosted by China's decision to cut interest rates in the early hours of Friday, there is still plenty of fear among investors and according to Louis Dudley of Federated Hermes, cash holdings have reached its highest level since September 2001, suggesting strong bearish sentiment. Supply chain problems have been highlighted by companies such as Cisco Systems, which has warned of persistent parts shortages. That knocked its shares down by 13.7%. The drop made it the latest big-stock company to post its biggest decline in more than a decade last week. The main risks that continue to cause volatility and great uncertainty are thus leading investors to buy "safe" assets such as the US bonds and the Swiss franc. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart From a technical analysis perspective, the US SP 500 index continues to move in a downtrend as the market has formed a lower low while being below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages on the H4 and daily charts. The nearest resistance is 4,080 - 4,100. The next resistance is at 4,140 and especially 4,293 - 4,300. Support is at 3,860 - 3,900 level. German DAX index The index continues to move in a downtrend along with the major world indices. The price has reached the support which is at 13,680 – 13,700 and the moving average EMA 50 on the H4 chart is above the SMA 100. This could indicate a short-term signal for some upward correction. However, the main trend according to the daily chart is still downwards. The nearest resistance is at 14,260 - 14,330 level. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The euro has bounced off its support The EUR/USD currency pair benefited last week from the US dollar moving away from its 20-year highs while on the euro, investors are expecting a tightening economy and a rise in interest rates, which the ECB has not risen yet as one of the few banks. Figure 4: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart   Significant support is at the price around 1.0350 - 1.040. Current resistance is at 1.650 - 1.700.   The Gold in investors' attention again The gold has underperformed over the past month, falling by 10% since April when the price reached USD 2,000 per ounce. But there is now strong risk aversion in the markets, as indicated by the stock markets, which have fallen. The gold, on the other hand, has started to rise. Inflation fears are a possible reason, and investors have begun to accumulate the gold for protection against rising prices. The second reason is that the gold is inversely correlated with the US dollar. The dollar has come down from its 20-year highs, which has allowed the gold to bounce off its support.  Figure 5: The gold on H4 and daily chart The first resistance is at $1,860 per ounce. The support is at $1,830 - $1,840 per ounce. The next support is then at $1,805 - $1,807 and especially at $1,800 per ounce.
Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios?

Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.06.2022 09:12
Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios? Why rather click on an ad from a brokerage firm that states that 70% of their clients' accounts are loss-making than an ad from a broker that does not disclose this statistic at all? Come with us to delve into the ins and outs of broker licensing and learn what protections you are legally entitled to as a client. Broker's licence The operation of a brokerage company involves many minor acts anchored in legislation. From the operation of the broker as a firm with employees; arranging the opening of client accounts to handling client deposits and managing the online platform through which clients trade. For all of this, a broker needs a license. While this can be issued by almost any state authority, licences of some states are more desirable than that of others. And that is due to variety of reasons. Licenses issued in so-called offshore states allow brokers to provide their clients with very attractive trading conditions. For example, the financial leverage that allows a client to multiply his or her trading position and with it also potential earnings (as well as losses) can often go as high as 1:1000 for offshore licenses. However, when it comes to client protection, offshore licenses fall somewhat short. Client protection takes many forms and one of them is the wording of the mentioned disclaimer. Thus, if you see a disclaimer below the image of an advertisement that does not state the percentage of loss but only somewhat vaguely warns of the potential risk, it is very likely that the broker to whom the advertisement belongs has an offshore license. Image: Purple Trading banner ad (see disclaimer below the button) What is a disclaimer The short phrase "XY% of client accounts lose money" and its other small permutations, which you can see for example under our online advertisements, are part of the so-called disclaimer. The disclaimer takes many forms, from a single sentence under a banner ad on Facebook to a multi-paragraph colossus in the footer of the broker's website. The purpose of the disclaimer is simple - to highlight, to those interested in trading on financial markets, the potential risks of this activity and to disclaim broker’s responsibility for their client’s eventual failure. However, the overall message of the disclaimer might be written differently. Because sometimes we see loss percentages under the advertisement of Broker A, while Broker B's disclaimer merely tells us that trading is risky. No percentage, nothing more. Image: Sample of a shorter disclaimer on the broker's page Offshore vs EU license The European Union's legal environment is characterized by a much stricter regulatory approach. This applies to the control of pharmaceuticals, and foodstuffs, but also, for example, to the control of brokerage companies. This sector is dealt with by ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority), to which the regulators of all countries within the EU have to answer (including the regulator of Purple Trading, the Cypriot CySEC). It is ESMA that takes it upon itself to protect consumers (in this case, investors and retail traders in the financial markets). And it does so in all sorts of ways. The aforementioned client account loss ratios on brokers' marketing materials are one of them.   Other ESMA protections include:   Reduced financial leverage Financial leverage is the ratio of the amount of capital a trader puts into an account to the funds provided by the broker. In simple terms, it is essentially borrowed capital from the broker, which is not reflected in the balance of money in your account, but allows you to trade a greater volume of transactions than you could with your own money. More experienced traders can use leverage to increase their profits many times over. However, as well as profits, leverage also multiplies losses, so less-experienced traders should be wary of using leverage generously. That's also why ESMA capped leverage limit for retail clients at 1:30 in 2018, and higher leverage (up to 1:400) can only be provided by brokers to clients who have met a number of strict criteria to qualify as a so-called Professional Client.   Protection against negative balance A key aspect of client protection. If a client's trade that he had "leveraged" fails and the multiplied loss puts him in the red, the broker will pay the entire amount that is "in the red" from his pocket. Thus, the client can never lose more money than he has deposited in his account and consequently become a debtor. Negative balance protection is compulsory for all brokers operating in the EU. It is not compulsory for offshore brokers, which, combined with the high leverage offered there, can lead to very unfortunate situations.   Segregation of client deposits Forex and online trading, in general, has come a long way since its beginning in 2008. Especially in the early days, the online trading environment was highly unregulated and it was not uncommon for brokers to use capital from client deposits to fund their operations. More than that, there were also cases where the client’s capital was outright misused to enrich a select few. Brokers operating in the EU are obliged to secure clients’ funds in many ways. One is depositing client capital in accounts segregated from the capital brokers use to finance their operations. What if the broker fails to provide his clients with these guarantees? Brokers subject to such strict regulatory authorities as CySEC (cypriot based regulator under ESMA) must undergo regular audits. As part of these audits, the regulator monitors whether all the measures resulting from the licence granted by the regulator are being complied with. Should this not be the case, the broker is usually subject to a hefty fine and often even the suspension of its licence. This means that broker cannot really afford not to comply with the client protection principles of the EU regulatory environment. Conclusion Voluntary disclosure of client account loss rates under broker advertisements may seem odd. However, it is a positive signal that lets you know that the broker in question is highly regulated. Therefore, if you choose to trade with them, you are protected by a number of legislative regulations that the broker will not dare to violate. See which EU broker has the best disclaimer number
COT Metals Speculators continue to decrease their Gold & Silver bullish bets

COT Metals Speculators continue to decrease their Gold & Silver bullish bets

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 22:22
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Metals large speculator bets were mostly higher this week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for metals was Copper (1,608 contracts) with Platinum (878 contracts) and Palladium (339 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-11,224 contracts) while Silver (-106 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week. Gold positions dropped by over -11,000 contracts this week and have now been lower in nine out of the past twelve weeks. The gold position has declined by a total of -101,799 contracts over that 12-week time period. This weakness has now pushed the gold speculator net standing to the lowest level of the past seventeen weeks, dating back to February 1st. Silver bets, meanwhile, have fallen for six consecutive weeks and by a total of -32,432 contracts over that period. Silver speculators have bailed out of their bullish positions since early March 3rd when the net position hit a 43-week high at +52,297 contracts. Currently, the net position has fallen all the way down to +13,997 contracts this week which marks the lowest level in the past 155 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2019. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the metals markets are in extreme bearish levels (except Gold which is just above the 20 percent threshold). Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the recent weakness of all of the metals market. Silver, Gold and Copper have fallen particularly hard in six weeks. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,787,928 9 332,976 10 -373,761 91 40,785 72 Gold 513,722 18 172,589 5 -200,056 95 27,467 32 Silver 147,301 14 13,997 15 -23,861 99 9,864 6 Copper 189,923 19 -18,025 29 15,425 70 2,600 40 Palladium 6,538 1 -3,133 4 3,221 95 -88 39 Platinum 67,964 35 2,363 7 -6,501 96 4,138 20 Natural Gas 1,115,815 7 -110,368 45 59,679 50 50,689 100 Brent 181,699 25 -40,872 43 38,941 58 1,931 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 753,373 34 186,078 71 -158,757 34 -27,321 25 Corn 1,564,217 32 404,200 82 -353,348 22 -50,852 14 Coffee 214,170 8 43,015 76 -45,757 28 2,742 17 Sugar 848,463 11 201,680 78 -240,752 23 39,072 56 Wheat 331,136 11 22,309 48 -18,647 33 -3,662 91   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 172,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 183,813 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.5 26.3 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.9 65.3 3.7 – Net Position: 172,589 -200,056 27,467 – Gross Longs: 269,459 135,360 46,639 – Gross Shorts: 96,870 335,416 19,172 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.4 94.9 32.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -35.1 38.6 -27.6   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,103 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 38.3 16.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 54.5 9.9 – Net Position: 13,997 -23,861 9,864 – Gross Longs: 55,545 56,447 24,482 – Gross Shorts: 41,548 80,308 14,618 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.1 99.3 6.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.1 50.9 -38.3   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,633 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 52.5 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 44.4 7.7 – Net Position: -18,025 15,425 2,600 – Gross Longs: 53,404 99,692 17,184 – Gross Shorts: 71,429 84,267 14,584 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.4 70.1 40.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.5 30.1 -39.7   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,485 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.1 40.6 11.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.6 50.2 5.7 – Net Position: 2,363 -6,501 4,138 – Gross Longs: 27,226 27,591 8,034 – Gross Shorts: 24,863 34,092 3,896 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.7 96.1 19.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.4 10.1 -29.9   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,472 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 70.6 15.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 60.2 21.3 17.1 – Net Position: -3,133 3,221 -88 – Gross Longs: 803 4,614 1,029 – Gross Shorts: 3,936 1,393 1,117 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.7 94.8 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.4 9.5 -41.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Concealing Volatility

Concealing Volatility

David Merkel David Merkel 05.06.2022 05:24
Photo Credit: Marco Verch Professional Photographer || With some private investments, you can’t tell what the value truly is. Third party professional help occasionally assists dishonesty Part of my career was based on concealing volatility. I sold Guaranteed Investment Contracts. I helped design and manage several different types of stable value funds. Life insurance contracts get valued at their book value, regardless of what the replacement cost of an equivalent contract would be like presently. Anytime an investment pool with no current market price has a book value above the underlying value of the investments that it holds, there is risk to those holding the investment pool. The amount of risk can be small yet significant with some types of money market funds. It can be considerably larger in certain types of pooled investments like: Various types of business partnerships, including Private REITs, Real Estate Partnerships, Private Equity, etc.Illiquid debts, such as private credit funds, and notes with limited marketability, whether structured or not.Odd mutual funds that limit withdrawals because they offer “guarantees” of a sort. That applies to Variable Annuities with riders offering guaranteed benefits, if the life insurer becomes insolvent.One-off investment liquid partnerships that are secretive and unusual, like Madoff. The underlying may be illiquid, but the accounting may be fraudulent. Or, the accounting may be fine, but the assets listed are not what is in custody. (With small funds, analyze the auditor, trustees, and custodian.)The value of a company touted by a SPAC promoter may be worth considerably less than what is illustrated.Any investment in public equity or debt pool where the positions are concentrated, and they own a high percentage of the float, or a high amount of the securities relative to the amount that gets traded in an average month. Think of Third Avenue Focused Credit, or Archegos. I have consistently encouraged readers to “look through” their pooled investments, and consider what the underlying is worth. If you only have a vague idea of what the underlying investments are, look at their public equivalents. A rising tide lifts almost all boats, and a falling tide does the opposite. There is a conceit within private equity, private credit and private real estate funds that they are less risky; there is no volatility, because we cannot produce an NAV. They have the same volatility as the publicly traded funds, but the volatility is concealed. If trouble hits the public markets 50-75% of the way through the life of a private fund, it will have difficulty selling their investments at levels anywhere near the book value previously claimed by the sponsors. With consent of the limited partners, perhaps they extend the life of the fund to try to recover value, but that also imposes an opportunity cost on holders who were expecting proceeds from the fund on schedule. Remember as well that in a scenario like 1929-1932, private funds will be wiped out with similarly leveraged private funds. Aleph Blog has consistently warned about the possibility of depression, plague, war, famine, bad monetary policy and aggressive socialism. We have gotten plague, war, and bad monetary policy. Famine in a sense may come from the Ukraine war and trade restrictions on Russia, at least for the African countries that buy from them. Thus I encourage readers to avoid private investments that promise no volatility, like the stupid ads for Equity Multiple that run on Bloomberg Radio. All investments involve some type of risk. Just because you can’t or don’t measure the risk doesn’t mean that there is no risk. Don’t listen to investment sales pitches which tell you to avoid the volatility of the public equity and debt markets, when they are taking the exact same risks in the private market, and they cannot or will not measure the risks for you, no matter how thick or thin the “disclosure” document is. There is no significant advantage in the private market over the public market. Indeed, the reverse may be true. (Yes, I meant all of the ambiguity there.) Look to the underlying, and invest accordingly. Look at fees, and try to minimize them. Prize transparency, because it reduces risk in the long run. Those who are honest are transparent.
EUR/USD In Focus! ECB Meeting In Sintra Is Like A Blockbuster Starring Lagarde, Powell And Bailey

Euro Currency Speculators continue to boost their bullish bets for 4th Week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 22:45
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further gains in bullish bets for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past ten weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, Euro bets have risen by a total of +58,650 contracts, going from -6,378 net positions on May 3rd to a total of +52,272 net positions this week. This week marks the highest Euro speculator standing in the past twelve weeks. The recent improvement in Euro positions has taken place with a very strong change in sentiment as just four weeks ago the overall position had fallen into bearish territory. The Euro sentiment has been so bad that analysts have been making predictions for an inevitable decline of the Euro into parity versus the dollar. However, recently there has been rising expectations that the European Central Bank will be more hawkish towards interest rates in the near future (despite the weak outlook for EU GDP growth) and will end their negative interest rate policy. Over the past few weeks, the EUR/USD exchange rate has rebounded after falling to a multi-year low of 1.0350 in early May. This week the EUR/USD hit a weekly high of 1.0787 before closing at the 1.0719 exchange rate. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (13,342 contracts), Brazil real (6,602 contracts), British pound sterling (6,267 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,680 contracts), Mexican peso (5,657 contracts), Japanese yen (5,005 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (597 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-501 contracts), Australian dollar (-3,236 contracts), Swiss franc (-785 contracts) and Bitcoin (-446 contracts). Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the currency markets are below their midpoint (50 percent) of the last 3 years. The Brazil Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are currently in extreme bullish levels. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the recent strong weakness in the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD) as well as the Swiss franc. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 63,863 98 37,538 91 -41,327 6 3,789 58 EUR 706,317 85 52,272 51 -85,186 52 32,914 29 GBP 252,881 72 -74,105 21 87,172 81 -13,067 29 JPY 239,080 81 -94,439 11 105,049 87 -10,610 32 CHF 49,579 40 -20,458 10 29,851 87 -9,393 26 CAD 135,929 21 -7,007 34 -327 68 7,334 44 AUD 153,661 48 -48,682 40 51,128 57 -2,446 46 NZD 55,134 53 -18,724 40 21,374 63 -2,650 21 MXN 212,843 55 35,449 42 -40,143 56 4,694 63 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 74,146 73 45,316 95 -47,670 5 2,354 92 Bitcoin 10,900 58 403 92 -503 0 100 15   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,039 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.9 3.7 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 68.4 2.8 – Net Position: 37,538 -41,327 3,789 – Gross Longs: 54,859 2,355 5,605 – Gross Shorts: 17,321 43,682 1,816 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.1 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 5.9 58.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.6 -9.0 5.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,930 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 51.7 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.1 63.8 7.7 – Net Position: 52,272 -85,186 32,914 – Gross Longs: 236,553 365,434 87,138 – Gross Shorts: 184,281 450,620 54,224 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.0 51.9 28.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -10.1 24.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -74,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,372 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.2 76.6 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 42.2 12.9 – Net Position: -74,105 87,172 -13,067 – Gross Longs: 30,788 193,786 19,446 – Gross Shorts: 104,893 106,614 32,513 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.6 81.2 28.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.9 8.4 1.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -94,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,444 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 82.2 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.9 38.3 13.9 – Net Position: -94,439 105,049 -10,610 – Gross Longs: 15,201 196,584 22,605 – Gross Shorts: 109,640 91,535 33,215 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.7 86.9 31.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -12.1 24.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,673 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 75.6 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.6 15.4 36.3 – Net Position: -20,458 29,851 -9,393 – Gross Longs: 2,641 37,473 8,596 – Gross Shorts: 23,099 7,622 17,989 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.3 87.0 25.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.5 10.4 7.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,687 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 51.5 24.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.6 51.7 18.6 – Net Position: -7,007 -327 7,334 – Gross Longs: 30,520 70,006 32,660 – Gross Shorts: 37,527 70,333 25,326 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 68.5 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.7 32.5 -21.5   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,446 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.4 63.1 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.1 29.9 14.4 – Net Position: -48,682 51,128 -2,446 – Gross Longs: 32,897 97,031 19,659 – Gross Shorts: 81,579 45,903 22,105 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.7 57.0 46.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 22.6 -25.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,321 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.6 76.2 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.6 37.4 9.8 – Net Position: -18,724 21,374 -2,650 – Gross Longs: 9,179 42,010 2,762 – Gross Shorts: 27,903 20,636 5,412 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 63.3 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -32.0 32.2 -20.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,792 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.8 41.8 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.1 60.6 1.3 – Net Position: 35,449 -40,143 4,694 – Gross Longs: 114,480 88,894 7,396 – Gross Shorts: 79,031 129,037 2,702 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.5 56.1 62.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -5.8 0.6   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 71.3 22.4 5.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.2 86.7 2.7 – Net Position: 45,316 -47,670 2,354 – Gross Longs: 52,896 16,595 4,372 – Gross Shorts: 7,580 64,265 2,018 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.9 4.8 92.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.7 -0.6 -1.6     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 849 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.6 1.5 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.9 6.1 8.6 – Net Position: 403 -503 100 – Gross Longs: 8,680 159 1,033 – Gross Shorts: 8,277 662 933 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.5 23.2 15.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.3 -20.4 -6.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol

Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol

Purple Trading Purple Trading 06.06.2022 08:55
Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol The volatility or market uncertainty index (VIX) is an invaluable tool used by many when analyzing markets. However, its trading also holds great potential. That's why we have decided to include it alongside our CFD futures symbols. Read this article and find out how and when to trade VIX as an CFD futures symbol. What is the VIX index and what does it indicate The Volatility Index (VIX), as the name suggests, is an index that is used to measure the level of market nervousness, uncertainty, and volatility. For these reasons, it is also sometimes called a fear gauge or fear index. The higher the VIX index values get, the greater the uncertainty in the markets and vice versa. However, it is very important to remember that the VIX index is a forward-looking index, so it shows the expected, not actual, market uncertainty.   How the VIX index is calculated VIX index measures 30 days of expected volatility of S&P 500 index, it does so by using S&P 500 options (SPX) listed on CBOE exchange as an input. VIX takes together all SPX call and put options and compares the changing demand and price between them.   Relationship between the VIX index and the markets The VIX index generally tracks the S&P 500 index in an inverse manner. That is, if the stock markets (S&P 500) are turbulent and investor nervousness/fear increases, the same can be observed for the VIX index. On the other hand, if stock prices are on the rise, the VIX index generally declines or advances sideways.   Meet: VIX.f - tradable CFD futures instrument Similar to other indices, the VIX is not tradable on its own and needs an investment vehicle to go with it. And that is what VIX.f is - a tradable continuous CFD futures instrument that behaves just like our other continuous CFD futures products. Its price is based on the underlying asset, which in this case is a specific VIX futures contract. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. It is also important to note that since this is a CFD instrument, you don’t become the owner of VIX.f when trading it. You only speculate on its price. How to trade VIX.f futures symbol VIX.f CFD futures is a very versatile symbol that can help traders and investors in several different situations:   Buy/long in case of an expected increase in volatility or turbulence in the markets Risk management or hedging vehicle for investors - through the inverse relationship of the VIX and the S&P 500 Option to open a short position in case of expecting a positive economic development in markets Overall, it should be noted that VIX.f futures is not recommended to be traded in a buy and hold manner, but rather as a short-term investment.Symbol specification: Symbol specification Name in Platform VIX.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trade hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.1 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50
We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice

We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice

Purple Trading Purple Trading 06.06.2022 11:30
We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice At Purple Trading, we are expanding our offer of CFD futures symbols by 2 more. The first one is the notorious S&P 500 index, followed by the futures contract for frozen orange juice concentrate. S&P 500 as a tradable futures symbol: US500.f This is a derivative contract that allows you to speculate on the price of the S&P 500 index. US500.f is therefore a continuous CFD futures symbol which price is based on the underlying asset. Of course, it should be noted here for the sake of argument that, since it is a CFD instrument, you do not become the owner of the US500.f when trading it. Rather you only speculate on its price. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. These contracts are split by quarter, specifically March, June, September and December. Trading methods US500.f   As with every CFD instrument, with US500.f you can speculate on either rise and/or fall in its price. It can also be a valuable alternative to other CFD futures products we offer at Purple Trading (for example, the VIX volatility index, with which the S&P 500 has an inverse relationship). Furthermore, clients do not pay swap fees for holding a position on this instrument, but only the standard $10/lot fee as with all other CFD futures instruments. However, they must not forget about rollovers. Clients can also use this instrument to hedge stock portfolios or effectively expand client’s exposure to the US market. US500.f specification:   US500.f specification Name in Platform US500.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trading hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.01 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50 Frozen orange juice concentrate - Orangej.f If you're a fan of the movie Trading places with Eddie Murphy, you'll remember the scene with the shorting of the orange juice concentrate futures. Guess what, now you can find exactly the same product among our CFD futures instruments! Orangej.f specification   1 lot = 2000 pound of frozen concentrated orange juice market (taken directly from GBE) Contracts every two months (Jan, March, May, Jul, Sep, Nov) Traded on ICE (US) exchange   Orangej.f specification Name in Platform Orangej.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trading hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 15:00 – 21:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.2 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.06.2022 15:38
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index fell by 501 contracts last week to 37,538 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,184 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,685 contracts. Significant fact is the further bullish movement in speculators' positions for the euro currency futures contracts. This week, the euro speculators increased their bullish positions for the fourth consecutive week and the sixth time in the last ten weeks. Over the past four weeks, speculators' total net positions in the euro have increased by a total of +58,650 contracts, from -6,378 net positions on May 3 to a total of +52,272 net positions last week. Total net positions for the euro are the highest in twelve weeks. The recent improvement in euro positions has come with a very significant change in sentiment, as just four weeks ago the total position had fallen into bearish territory. Sentiment in the euro was so bad that analysts were talking about the inevitable decline of the euro to parity against the dollar. Recently, however, expectations have been growing that the European Central Bank will become more hawkish on interest rates in the near future and end its negative interest rate policy, causing the euro to strengthen. In addition to the euro, speculators' total net positions rose on the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen. On the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc, total net positions fell last week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907 Apr 26, 2022 33879 22201 -69621 -27651 66 -95535 20881 -12869   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com     The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 688449 222993 200792 22201 12510 1990 11090 -9100 Weak bullish         Total change 30378 15550 -5421 20971     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 52,272 contracts last week, up by 13,342 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 519 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 13,861 contracts. This data suggests bullish sentiment as the total net positions are positive while there has been an increase. Open interest fell by 2,621 contracts in the last week. This shows that the move that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. The price has reached the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, at which it is oscillating, showing that there is a resistance here. Long-term resistance: 1.0800 – 1.0840 Support: 1.0620 – 1-0630. The next support is in the zone 1.0340 – 1.0420.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10, 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 272792 40436 110057 -69621 23263 3625 14332 -10707 Bearish         Total change 3352 -6023 9168 -15191     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 74,105 contracts, up by 6,267 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,852 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,415 contracts. This indicates weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 983 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. Long-term resistance: 1.2700 – 1.2760.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 147090 47105 74756 -27651 -219 7904 6718 1186 Weak bearish         Total change 6352 -6304 13541 -19845     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 48,682 contracts, down by 3,236 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,682 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 446 contracts. This data suggests bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, while at the same time there has been a further decline in the past week. There was a decline in open interest of 4,954 contracts last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore weak price action. The price has currently reached the horizontal resistance at 0.7260 where a reaction occurred. If this resistance is  broken, a further bullish movement could continue. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850     The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bullish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 46510 22085 22019 66 5412 3004 3303 -299 Weak bullish         Total change 14036 -9902 9187 -19089     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached -18,724 contracts last week, having grown by 597 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,570 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,167 contracts. This data suggests that there has been a weakening of bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there has also been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 4,145 contracts last week.  The move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZD/USD has reached the resistance band at 0.6570 and also the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, which is a strong confluence and there has already been some bearish reaction there. If this resistance is broken, further strengthening could occur.  Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6560 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280     Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Crypto Focus: Many of the Top 10 Coins Remaining Heavily Range-Bound for Another Week

Crypto Focus: Many of the Top 10 Coins Remaining Heavily Range-Bound for Another Week

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 10.06.2022 12:15
Well, it was another week of ranges traders, as we saw a few moves by both sides, but the picture remains relatively the same, with many of the top 10 coins remaining heavily range-bound for another week. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, and Doge are looking quite similar as traders continue to look for that reason to break the deadlock. Solana looked like it was trying to get a move higher going yesterday, but that was cut down into Thursday’s NY session. For now, it looks like the smart move will be to continue to sit if you’re long-term and stay on the lines if you’re a short-term trader. Until we see a shift in momentum, it could continue to be death by one thousand cuts if you continue to try and play the mini breakouts. It’s not to say we didn’t see some movement this week. ADA, a member on the top 10, did trade up to 20% higher before the fade set in yesterday. For now, ADA is in a minor uptrend, but we want to see 67 beaten to resume thinking that buyers are flat out in control. Other movers in the top 60 have been Helium +36% and THETA +12.2%. In the Top 25, ChainLink has seen a solid seven days up 23.4%. In other news, the SEC has stated that BTC and ETH are commodities. It’s going to be hard to get delivery of those. The SEC is also set to investigate the recent TerraUSD crash. Once again, we are going to end with an index to gauge the overall mood we see on the boards at present. It’s a very clear picture at the moment with the CRYPTO25 index as the price remains hemmed in its range between 11,250 and 9860. Recent price action has started to form a squeeze but that might just produce another mini-break that remains held between the range high and low. We are now at a point where we are looking for a high momentum break, either higher or lower, to set some direction. The post Crypto Focus: Many of the Top 10 Coins Remaining Heavily Range-Bound for Another Week appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Week 23 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Brent Crude & Heating Oil

COT Week 23 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Brent Crude & Heating Oil

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 15:16
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (4,774 contracts) and Heating Oil (4,765 contracts) with Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,178 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-4,720 contracts) and Natural Gas (-3,974 contracts) with Gasoline (-3,202 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index is the highest above its midpoint for the past 3 years while Brent, Heating Oil and Natural Gas are slightly below the 50 percent level. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil and the Bloomberg Commodity Index bets have been rising the strongest over the past six weeks while Gasoline is moving the opposite way. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,790,618 10 328,256 8 -369,033 93 40,777 72 Gold 494,130 12 175,268 7 -199,886 95 24,618 18 Silver 148,294 15 17,404 5 -27,990 94 10,586 10 Copper 194,187 22 -3,714 40 879 60 2,835 42 Palladium 7,035 3 -3,461 2 3,581 97 -120 37 Platinum 65,295 31 5,933 12 -9,742 92 3,809 15 Natural Gas 1,127,731 10 -114,342 44 66,419 52 47,923 93 Brent 169,802 16 -36,098 51 34,208 50 1,890 35 Heating Oil 261,651 20 4,886 50 -24,428 45 19,542 66 Soybeans 760,444 35 176,644 68 -148,390 39 -28,254 23 Corn 1,557,167 31 391,264 80 -337,137 24 -54,127 12 Coffee 222,583 15 48,767 81 -51,363 23 2,596 16 Sugar 849,814 12 195,403 77 -234,496 24 39,093 56 Wheat 333,705 12 23,881 50 -19,863 31 -4,018 90   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 328,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 332,976 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 34.8 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 55.4 2.9 – Net Position: 328,256 -369,033 40,777 – Gross Longs: 423,882 622,320 92,501 – Gross Shorts: 95,626 991,353 51,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 8.2 92.9 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.3 -4.2 -2.1   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,872 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.3 51.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.6 31.4 3.3 – Net Position: -36,098 34,208 1,890 – Gross Longs: 26,009 87,488 7,434 – Gross Shorts: 62,107 53,280 5,544 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.6 50.2 34.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.1 -2.3 -14.1   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -114,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,368 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 37.2 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.0 31.3 2.6 – Net Position: -114,342 66,419 47,923 – Gross Longs: 235,073 419,847 76,779 – Gross Shorts: 349,415 353,428 28,856 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.3 51.8 93.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -1.6 4.6   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,690 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 52.7 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 66.2 4.3 – Net Position: 30,488 -41,866 11,378 – Gross Longs: 75,841 162,330 24,623 – Gross Shorts: 45,353 204,196 13,245 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.2 95.2 88.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 6.4 16.0   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.3 49.5 17.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 58.9 10.1 – Net Position: 4,886 -24,428 19,542 – Gross Longs: 45,231 129,588 45,902 – Gross Shorts: 40,345 154,016 26,360 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 45.3 66.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.2 -9.7 -9.1   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,561 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 62.0 1.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.0 51.3 0.8 – Net Position: -8,383 7,865 518 – Gross Longs: 24,512 45,368 1,126 – Gross Shorts: 32,895 37,503 608 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.4 23.5 37.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.8 -10.2 -6.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 17:16
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. COT Currencies market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency markets was the Canadian dollar (5,945 contracts) and the Swiss franc (4,326 contracts) with the British pound sterling (3,295 contracts), Japanese yen (2,793 contracts), Brazil real (1,389 contracts), Australian dollar (786 contracts), US Dollar Index (400 contracts) and Bitcoin (87 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Mexican peso (-2,723 contracts) and Euro (-1,729 contracts) with New Zealand dollar (-1,047 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Currency Speculators Notes: US Dollar Index speculator bets have continued their upward climb in four out of the past five weeks as well as nine out of the past twelve weeks. USD Index remains in an extreme-bullish strength level and is very close (currently +37,938 contracts) to the highest net speculator position (+39,078 contracts on January 4th) of this recent bullish cycle, emphasizing the strong speculator bias. The Euro speculator position saw a pullback this week (-1,729 contracts) after huge gains in the previous three weeks (+58,650 contracts). Speculator sentiment is still pretty strong currently (+50,543 contracts) despite a very weak exchange rate (EURUSD at 1.0524 to close the week) and weak outlook for the Eurozone economy with rising inflation. British pound sterling speculator sentiment has crumbled in the past few months. The net speculator position managed to poke its head above its negative bias on February 15th with a total of +2,237 net contracts but sentiment has deteriorated since. From February 22nd to this week, speculator bets have dropped by a total of -73,047 contracts and recently hit a 139-week low on May 24th, the lowest level of speculator sentiment dating back to September of 2019. Japanese yen speculator positions are the most bearish of the major currencies just under -100,000 contracts. The USDJPY exchange rate is at a 20-year high and there has been no sign that the BOJ is interest in raising interest rates while other central banks commit to higher rates. These factors seem to say that the rout of the yen will continue ahead for some time (but how far can it go?). Commodity currency speculator bets are on the defensive lately. Australian dollar spec bets have fallen in five out of the past six weeks. Canadian dollar bets are now in bearish territory for a 5th straight week. New Zealand dollar speculator positions have declined in six out of the past seven weeks and the net position has now fallen to the lowest level since March of 2020 Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Brazilian Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are all in extreme-bullish levels at the current moment. On the opposite end of the extreme spectrum, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are very weak in relative speculator sentiment and sit in the extreme-bearish levels. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the commodity currencies have been losing sentiment over the last six weeks. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have all had changes of at least -18.8 percent in their strength scores with the New Zealand dollar leading the decline with a -33.3 percent drop in six weeks. The US Dollar Index, Euro and Mexican Peso have had small but rising scores over the past six weeks. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 65,163 100 37,938 91 -41,863 5 3,925 59 EUR 730,667 95 50,543 51 -88,189 51 37,646 37 GBP 258,623 76 -70,810 23 80,465 77 -9,655 36 JPY 266,054 100 -91,646 12 109,109 89 -17,463 18 CHF 49,794 41 -16,132 16 27,216 87 -11,084 20 CAD 167,373 42 -1,062 40 -13,401 58 14,463 59 AUD 166,422 57 -47,896 40 47,413 54 483 54 NZD 63,540 70 -19,771 38 22,681 65 -2,910 19 MXN 248,184 72 32,726 41 -38,117 57 5,391 66 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 72,371 70 46,705 96 -48,954 4 2,249 91 Bitcoin 10,990 58 490 93 -529 0 39 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,538 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.1 3.2 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 67.5 2.8 – Net Position: 37,938 -41,863 3,925 – Gross Longs: 55,460 2,090 5,780 – Gross Shorts: 17,522 43,953 1,855 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.2 5.0 59.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.0 -8.8 13.4   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,272 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 50.0 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.6 62.1 7.3 – Net Position: 50,543 -88,189 37,646 – Gross Longs: 230,248 365,628 90,978 – Gross Shorts: 179,705 453,817 53,332 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 51.0 36.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -11.9 22.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -70,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,105 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 74.1 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.8 43.0 12.1 – Net Position: -70,810 80,465 -9,655 – Gross Longs: 34,618 191,742 21,602 – Gross Shorts: 105,428 111,277 31,257 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.0 77.3 35.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -4.4 17.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,439 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.9 79.3 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.4 38.3 15.3 – Net Position: -91,646 109,109 -17,463 – Gross Longs: 18,466 210,889 23,226 – Gross Shorts: 110,112 101,780 40,689 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.4 88.9 18.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -2.8 3.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,458 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 69.3 18.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 14.6 41.1 – Net Position: -16,132 27,216 -11,084 – Gross Longs: 2,609 34,494 9,378 – Gross Shorts: 18,741 7,278 20,462 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.6 86.9 20.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 2.4 6.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,007 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.5 44.2 22.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.1 52.2 13.7 – Net Position: -1,062 -13,401 14,463 – Gross Longs: 39,288 74,044 37,463 – Gross Shorts: 40,350 87,445 23,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.2 57.6 58.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.8 14.2 9.7   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,682 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.1 59.9 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.8 31.4 14.2 – Net Position: -47,896 47,413 483 – Gross Longs: 31,720 99,747 24,197 – Gross Shorts: 79,616 52,334 23,714 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.4 54.3 53.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.8 13.8 4.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -19,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,724 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.4 69.1 4.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.5 33.4 8.6 – Net Position: -19,771 22,681 -2,910 – Gross Longs: 12,310 43,890 2,538 – Gross Shorts: 32,081 21,209 5,448 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.1 65.4 18.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.3 31.2 -4.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,449 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.0 35.4 3.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.8 50.8 1.2 – Net Position: 32,726 -38,117 5,391 – Gross Longs: 119,162 87,884 8,441 – Gross Shorts: 86,436 126,001 3,050 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.3 56.9 65.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.4 -6.1 8.3   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,316 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.1 13.5 5.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 81.2 2.3 – Net Position: 46,705 -48,954 2,249 – Gross Longs: 58,657 9,780 3,931 – Gross Shorts: 11,952 58,734 1,682 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.3 3.5 91.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 -0.2 4.4   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 87 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 403 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.5 1.5 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.1 6.4 9.3 – Net Position: 490 -529 39 – Gross Longs: 8,959 169 1,063 – Gross Shorts: 8,469 698 1,024 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.2 21.6 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.5 -6.4 0.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, March 2022 Update

Estimating Future Stock Returns, March 2022 Update

David Merkel David Merkel 14.06.2022 05:51
Image credit: All images belong to Aleph Blog Well, finally the bear market… at 3/31/2002 the S&P 500 was priced to return a trice less than zero in nominal terms. After the pasting the market received today, that figure is 3.57%/year nominal (not adjusted for inflation). You would likely be better off in an ETF of 10-year single-A rated bonds yielding 4.7% — both for safety and return. I will admit that my recent experiment buying TLT has been a flop. I added to the position today. My view is that the long end of the curve is getting resistant to the belly of the curve, and thus the curve is turning into the “cap” formation, where the middle of the curve is higher than the short and long ends. This is a rare situation. Usually, the long end rallies in situations like this. The only situation more rare than this is the “cup” formation where the middle of the curve is lower than the short and long ends. I will have to update my my old post of “Goes Down Double-Speed.” We’ve been through three cycles since then — bear, bull, and now bear again. People get surprised by the ferocity of bear markets, but they shouldn’t be. People get shocked at losing money on paper, and thus the selloffs happen more rapidly. Bull markets face skepticism, and so they are slow. What are the possibilities given where the market is now? When the market is expecting 3.57% nominal, give or take one percent, what tends to happen? Most of the time, growth at these levels for the S&P 500 is pretty poor. That said, market expectations of inflation over the next ten years are well below the 4.7% you can earn on an average 10-year single-A rated corporate bond. Those expectations may be wrong — they usually are, but you can’t tell which way they will be wrong. I am still a believer in deflation, so I think current estimates of inflation are too high. There is too much debt and so monetary policy will have more punch than previously. The FOMC will panic, tighten too much, and crater some area in the financial economy that they care about, and then they will give up again, regardless of how high inflation is. They care more about avoiding a depression than inflation. They will even resume QE with inflation running hot if they are worried about the financial sector. The Fed cares about things in this order: Preserve their own necksPreserve the banks, and things like themFight inflationFund the US GovernmentPromote nominal GDP growth, though they will call it reducing labor unemployment. The Fed really doesn’t care about labor unemployment, or inequality. They are a bourgeois institution that cares about themselves and their patrons — those who are rich. I know this post is “all over the map.” My apologies. That said, we in a very unusual situation featuring high debt, high current inflation (that won’t last), war, plague, and supply-chain issues. How this exactly works out is a mystery, especially to me — but I am giving you my best guess here, for whatever it is worth. It’s worth than double what you paid for it! Full disclosure: long TLT for clients and me
Crypto News: Cardano focus after support bounce

Crypto News: Cardano focus after support bounce

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 14.06.2022 08:44
Well, traders, what an insane few days we have seen on the crypto markets. Some of the falls have just about been doomsday stuff. ETH, for instance, broke below 1100 today, and Bitcoin briefly moved below 21K. Solana’s low retraced the entire 2020/21 run before buyers jumped back in today. So let’s move to today’s focus Cardano. The late May and early June price looked good, moving back above .66 before the latest bear raids kicked off. Five straight sessions saw 24% taken off the price and today looked no different as prices raced a further 9% lower. Buyers emerged into today’s Asian session and, at this stage, have pulled 17% back since today’s low. This caught our attention from where the turnaround occurred, and it lined up very nicely with .4450 support. This could be a good sign as price continues to sit in its range and is not in a solid downtrend like many other top 10 coins. If buyers can hold out today and maintain a close above support, this could be good signs that buyers are trying to regain control. A close below support, and we will be back on the bear front. If buyers can hold support and a decent push higher, we will look for broader buying to show overall demand, and we will then look to see if buyers can break the top of the range to start suggesting that a new move higher could be developing. Cardano D1 Chart The post Crypto News: Cardano focus after support bounce appeared first on Eightcap.
The movie that changed futures trading once and for all

The movie that changed futures trading once and for all

Purple Trading Purple Trading 14.06.2022 08:01
The movie that changed futures trading once and for all There is more than dozen of films about financial markets. However, there is only one that had such an impact that it led to a legislative change in the commodity futures market. Which movie are we talking about and what changes it introduce in regards to commodity trading? Read on! Holywood’s fascination with financial markets Holywood is no stranger to depicting the world of financial markets. The subject became particularly attractive in the 1980s, when it became clear that market capitalism was more viable economic model than central planning of the Eastern Bloc, resulting in many films set in the stock market environment, majority of which focusing on Wall Street. However, only one of these films has managed to leave a mark in the memory of viewers as well as in law textbooks. Trading Places - a probe into the world of commodity trading Brothers Mortimer and Randolp Duke are bored billionaires who own a commodities trading brokerage firm. One day, as a part of somewhat cynical bet, they decide to swap the lives of a young and promising businessman, Louis Winthorpe III (Dan Aykroyd), and a street hustler, Billy Ray Valentine (Eddie Murphy). They want to crush the dreams of the former while helping the latter to become familiar in the world of financial markets. From today's perspective, the film is a unique probe into the workings of the financial markets before they were heavily computerised. In addition to the brilliant scenes in which are the Duke brothers explaining to Billy Valentine how commodities trading works, we also get a glimpse behind the scenes at the New York Board of Trade, where commodities are traded (climactic trading scenes were actually filmed there). The bulk of the plot and the main storyline then revolves around the trading of Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ), specifically the futures contracts of this commodity. Eddie Murphy rule   This rule, officially titled "Section 136 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Transparency and Accountability Reform and Consumer Protection Act, under Section 746" (but commonly referred to as "the Eddie Murphy rule"), prohibits the misuse of internal government information for the purpose of trading in the commodities markets. No one likes spoilers, so if you haven't seen this movie, we won't give away the plot and the denouement of the final scene of the entire movie. We'll just mention that shorting of FCOJ futures plays an important role here. In fact, so important, that this scene is reportedly often reference by traders on the New York Stock Exchange. Figure 1: The final scene of the film that initiated the inception of "Eddie Murphy rule" (source IMDb.com) Trading FCOJ futures today Although nowadays you don't see crowded rooms full of white collar men and women trying to buy low and sell high, FCOJ futures trading still exists. The only main difference is that rooms and phones have been replaced by computer screens and cubicles. Also, virtually anyone can trade today. If you are interested in trying out CFD trading of FCOJ futures, at Purple Trading we have recently introduced this instrument to our trader platforms. Just like our heroes of Trading Places, you can short (and long) and potentialy profit from both favourable and unfavourable market situations. The only difference is that you won't be able to use government information to do so, because Eddie Murphy Rule wouldn't allow you to.
The Swing Overview – Week 23 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 23 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 08:53
The Swing Overview - Week 23 Major global stock indices broke through their support levels after several days of range movement in response to the tightening economy, the ongoing war in Ukraine, slowing economic growth and high inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its interest rate by 0.50%. The ECB decided to start raising interest rates by 0.25% from July 2022. The winner of last week is the US dollar, which continues to strengthen. Macroeconomic data Data from the US labour market was highly anticipated. The job creation indicator, the so-called NFP, surprised the markets positively. Analysts expected that 325,000 new jobs had been created in May. In fact, 390 thousand jobs were created in the US. Unemployment is at 3.6%. The information on the growth of hourly wages, which is a leading indicator of inflation, was important. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in May, less than analysts who expected 0.4%.   Unemployment claims reached 229,000 this week. This is the highest levels since 3/3/2022. However, this is not an extreme increase. The number of claims is still in the pre-pandemic average area. Nevertheless, it can be seen that since 7/4/2022, when the number of applications reached 166 thousand, the number of applications is slowly increasing and this indicator will be closely monitored.  The ISM index of purchasing managers in the US service sector reached 55.9 in May. This is lower than the previous month's reading of 57.1. A value above 50 still points to expansion in the sector although the decline in the reading indicates  economy.   The yield on the US 10-year bond is close to its peak and is currently around 3%. The rise in yields has been followed by a rise in the US dollar. The dollar index has surpassed 103. The reason for the strengthening of the dollar is the aggressive tightening of the economy by the US Fed, which began reducing the central bank's balance sheet on June 1, 2022. In practice, this means that the Fed will let expire the government bonds it previously bought as part of QE and will not reinvest them further. The first tranche of bonds will expire on June 15, so the effect of this operation remains to be seen. Figure 1: The US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index has been moving in a narrow range for the past few days between 4,200, where resistance is and 4,080, where support has been tested several times. This support was broken and has become the new resistance as we can see on the H4 chart.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The catalyst for this strong initiation move is the strong US dollar and rising bond yields. Therefore, the current resistance is in the 4,075 - 4,085 range.  The nearest support is 3,965 - 3,970 according to the H4 chart. The next support is 3,879 - 3,907.   German DAX index Macroeconomic data that affected the DAX was manufacturing orders for April, which fell 2.7% month-on-month, while analysts were expecting a 0.3% rise. Industrial production in Germany rose by 0.7% in April (expectations were for 1.0%). The war in Ukraine has a strong impact on the weaker figures. The catalyst for breaking support was the ECB's decision to raise interest rates, which the bank will start implementing from July 2022. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX is below the SMA 100 moving average according to the daily and H4 chart. This shows a bearish sentiment. The nearest resistance is 14,300 - 14,335. Support is at 13,870 - 13,900 according to the H4 chart.   The ECB left the interest rate unchanged  The ECB left interest rates unchanged on June 9, 2022, so the key rate is still at 0.0%. However, the bank said that it will proceed with a rate hike from July, when the rate is expected to rise by 0.25%. The next hike will then be in September, probably again by 0.25%. The bank pointed to the high inflation rate, which is expected to reach 6.8% for 2022. Inflation is expected to fall to 3.4% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024.  Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the bank, a significant risk is Russia's unjustified aggression against Ukraine, which is causing problems in supply chains and pushing energy and some commodity prices up. The result is a slowdown in the growth of the European economy. The bank also announced that it will end its asset purchase program as of July 1, 2022. This is the soft end of this program, as the money that will flow from matured assets will continue to be reinvested by the bank. In practice, this means that the ECB's balance sheet will not be further inflated, but for now, unlike the Fed’s balance sheet, the bank has no plans to reduce its balance sheet. This, coupled with the more moderate rate hike plans and the existence of the above risks, has supported the dollar and the euro has begun to weaken sharply in response to the ECB announcement. The resistance is 1.0760-1.0770. Current support at 1.063-1.064 is broken and it will become new resistance if the break is confirmed. The next support according to the H4 chart is 1.0530 - 1.0550.   Australian central bank surprises with aggressive approach In Australia, the central bank raised its policy rate by 0.50%. Analysts had expected the bank to raise the rate by 0.25%. Thus, the current rate on the Australian dollar is 0.80%. However, this aggressive increase did not strengthen the Australian dollar, which surprisingly weakened. The reason for this is the strong US dollar and also the risk off sentiment that is taking place in the equity indices.  Also impacting the Aussie is the situation in China, where there is zero tolerance of COVID-19. This will impact the country's economic growth, which is very likely to fall short of the 5.5% that was originally projected.  Figure 5: The AUD/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the AUD/USD currency pair has broken below the SMA 100 moving average, which is a bearish signal. The nearest resistance is 0.7140 - 0.7150. The support is in the zone 0.7030 - 0.7040. 
Crypto Focus: Prices Sink Lower as Crypto Malaise Spreads

Crypto Focus: Prices Sink Lower as Crypto Malaise Spreads

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 17.06.2022 13:26
Hi traders, well, another week, another heavy extension lower. This week’s selling really struck home as levels not seen in a while were reached on some coins. The most selling was seen on the top this week as it lost 22% while the top 25 lost 20%. Plenty of mental pain was seen over the last week as coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum hit levels not seen since 2020. Bitcoin came very close to breaking 20K, and Ethereum just missed breaking 1K. Solana hit 25.77, just about retracing the entire 2021 move. Is it a bit late to say the market is internally sick? I feel it is a bit. Confidence looks shot, and this tends to remind me of 2017/2018. Is this different? Could we see a new rally that moves are a more sustainable speed? Or have stable coins shown a fundamental weakness in the crypto world that has drawn trust out of the crypto dream? Sorry to sound so dramatic, but if you compare Bitcoin now to Bitcoin in 2017, you will see some similarities. Sirin Labs has not followed the overall market trend as it has seen ridiculous gains over the last two days. Price looks to have been helped by news that a blockchain-backed smartphone backed by football superstar Lionel Messi is set to be released in November. The market looks to approval as price of SRNUSD has exploded by over 1200% in the last two days. The post Crypto Focus: Prices Sink Lower as Crypto Malaise Spreads appeared first on Eightcap.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 10:30
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index rose by 400 contracts last week to 37,938 contracts. This change is the result of a 600-contract increase in long positions and a 200-contract increase in short positions. On the euro, there was a decrease in total net positions after a significant previous increase. A reduction in total net positions also occurred on the New Zealand dollar last week. Increases in total net positions occurred last week on the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. The markets experienced high volatility last week, triggered by concerns that the economy was tightening more rapidly on the back of rising inflation. As a result, equity indices have continued to fall and this risk-off sentiment has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and a weakening of more or less all currencies tracked. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Jun 7, 2022    37938 50543 -70810 -47896 -19771 -91646 -1062 -16132 May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 07, 2022 730667 230248 179705 50543 24350 -6305 -4576 -1729 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10, 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 -3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish         Total Change 42218 7255 -21087 28342     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 50 543 contracts last week, down by 1 729 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,305 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,576 contracts. This data suggests weak bullish sentiment as total net positions are positive but at the same time there has been a decline. Open interest rose by 24,350 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The price bounced off resistance at the EMA 50 moving average and is approaching horizontal support which is in the band at 1.0400. The weakening euro is a result of the ECB's approach to inflation. The ECB announced to raise the rate by 0.25% from July, which is significantly less than the interest rate increase implemented by the US Fed.  Long-term resistance: 1.0620 – 1.0650. The next resistance is at 1.0770-1.0780. Support: 1.0340 – 1.0420 The British pound DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 258623 34618 105428 -70810 5742 3830 535 3295 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish         Total Change -14169 -5818 -4629 -1189     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 70,810 contracts, having increased by 3,295 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 3,830 contracts and the growth in short positions by 535 contracts. This suggests weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in them. Open interest rose by 5742 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The pound is weakening strongly in the current risk off sentiment and has reached its long term support. Long-term resistance: 1.2440 – 1.2476.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200   The Australian dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 166422 31720 79616 -47896 12761 -1177 -1963 786 Weak bearish May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish         Total Change 19332 -15385 4860 -20245     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,896 contracts last week, up by 786 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,177 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,963 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there was an increase in them in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 12,761 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week on the AUD was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The Australian dollar is weakening sharply even though the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 0.50% last week. The reason for this bearish decline is the current risk-off sentiment which is particularly threatening commodity currencies, which includes the Australian dollar. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850  (the support zone begins at 0.6930 according to a weekly chart).   The New Zealand dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 63540 12310 32081 -19771 8406 3131 4178 -1047 Bearish May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish         Total Change 17030 -9775 10062 -19837     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to -19,771 contracts, down by 1,047 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 3,131 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,178 contracts. This data suggests that there has been bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators have been negative and there was further decline in them as well. Open interest rose by 8,406 contracts last week. The downward move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The NZD/USD bounced off the resistance band at 0.6570 and approached significant support. The decline in the New Zealand Dollar is mainly due to risk off sentiment in equity markets. Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6570 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
COT Week 24 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil & WTI Crude

COT Week 24 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil & WTI Crude

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 13:18
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (3,589 contracts) and then Gasoline (968 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (72 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, on the downside, the markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-25,310 contracts) and Natural Gas (-9,143 contracts) while Brent Crude Oil (-291 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index has the highest strength score with a 75.7 strength score followed by Heating Oil and Brent Crude Oil. WTI Crude Oil (currently at the lowest level of past three years or 0 percent) and Gasoline (2.2 percent) currently are in bearish-extreme levels with speculator sentiment very weak. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil and the Bloomberg Commodity Index have had rising scores over the past six weeks while all the other energy markets have had declining moves. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,715,674 0 302,946 0 -341,654 100 38,708 70 Gold 497,456 13 154,598 0 -178,569 100 23,971 15 Silver 151,978 18 14,005 0 -22,047 100 8,042 0 Copper 187,247 17 -13,797 32 10,287 67 3,510 46 Palladium 7,740 6 -4,057 0 4,354 100 -297 27 Platinum 66,613 33 2,214 7 -6,793 96 4,579 26 Natural Gas 1,053,265 0 -123,485 42 74,310 54 49,175 96 Brent 171,026 17 -36,389 50 34,601 51 1,788 33 Heating Oil 268,199 23 8,475 55 -28,686 41 20,211 68 Soybeans 754,428 34 182,667 70 -155,663 37 -27,004 25 Corn 1,521,565 25 399,775 81 -344,196 23 -55,579 11 Coffee 202,656 0 46,885 79 -48,399 25 1,514 5 Sugar 800,806 1 170,483 72 -198,006 31 27,523 42 Wheat 336,890 13 20,435 46 -18,089 34 -2,346 98   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 302,946 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -25,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 328,256 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.9 35.3 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.2 55.2 3.0 – Net Position: 302,946 -341,654 38,708 – Gross Longs: 409,427 604,944 90,476 – Gross Shorts: 106,481 946,598 51,768 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 69.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 9.2 -8.2   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,098 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.6 52.0 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.9 31.8 3.3 – Net Position: -36,389 34,601 1,788 – Gross Longs: 23,246 88,924 7,365 – Gross Shorts: 59,635 54,323 5,577 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 50.8 33.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.2 14.3 6.5   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -123,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,342 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.9 38.9 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 31.8 2.4 – Net Position: -123,485 74,310 49,175 – Gross Longs: 220,256 409,613 74,311 – Gross Shorts: 343,741 335,303 25,136 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.5 54.3 96.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.7 0.5 10.2   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,488 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.8 53.2 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 67.4 4.2 – Net Position: 31,456 -43,672 12,216 – Gross Longs: 76,744 164,469 25,175 – Gross Shorts: 45,288 208,141 12,959 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.2 93.4 94.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.0 5.3 10.7   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.1 50.5 16.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.0 61.2 9.2 – Net Position: 8,475 -28,686 20,211 – Gross Longs: 45,945 135,386 45,006 – Gross Shorts: 37,470 164,072 24,795 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.9 40.7 68.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.5 -15.6 -6.8   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 72 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,383 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 51.7 0.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.5 42.8 0.1 – Net Position: -8,311 7,764 547 – Gross Longs: 25,428 45,267 619 – Gross Shorts: 33,739 37,503 72 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 8.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.7 23.2 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.3 -18.9 -5.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 24 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Sugar & Cocoa

COT Week 24 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Sugar & Cocoa

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 14:18
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The soft commodities market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while eight markets had lower speculator bets. Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (8,511 contracts) and Live Cattle (7,316 contracts) with Soybeans (6,023 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-24,920 contracts) and Cocoa (-17,863 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-5,247 contracts), Cotton (-4,427 contracts), Wheat (-3,446 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,105 contracts), Coffee (-1,882 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-845 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Corn (81.1 percent and bullish-extreme) is at the highest level of the softs currently followed by Coffee and Soybean Meal. On the downside, Lean Hogs (14.8 percent) and Cocoa (14.3 percent) are in bearish-extreme levels and have the weakest speculator strength scores at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Coffee and Wheat have the only rising scores over the past six weeks. Cocoa leads the trends on the downside with a -39.1 percent trend change followed by Live Cattle (-17.9 percent) and Lean Hogs (-16 percent). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,715,674 0 302,946 0 -341,654 100 38,708 70 Gold 497,456 13 154,598 0 -178,569 100 23,971 15 Silver 151,978 18 14,005 0 -22,047 100 8,042 0 Copper 187,247 17 -13,797 32 10,287 67 3,510 46 Palladium 7,740 6 -4,057 0 4,354 100 -297 27 Platinum 66,613 33 2,214 7 -6,793 96 4,579 26 Natural Gas 1,053,265 0 -123,485 42 74,310 54 49,175 96 Brent 171,026 17 -36,389 50 34,601 51 1,788 33 Heating Oil 268,199 23 8,475 55 -28,686 41 20,211 68 Soybeans 754,428 34 182,667 70 -155,663 37 -27,004 25 Corn 1,521,565 25 399,775 81 -344,196 23 -55,579 11 Coffee 202,656 0 46,885 79 -48,399 25 1,514 5 Sugar 800,806 1 170,483 72 -198,006 31 27,523 42 Wheat 336,890 13 20,435 46 -18,089 34 -2,346 98   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 399,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 391,264 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.2 44.6 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.9 67.2 12.8 – Net Position: 399,775 -344,196 -55,579 – Gross Longs: 519,685 678,186 139,407 – Gross Shorts: 119,910 1,022,382 194,986 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.1 22.9 11.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 15.2 -2.8   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 170,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,403 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 47.6 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.8 72.3 6.7 – Net Position: 170,483 -198,006 27,523 – Gross Longs: 233,102 380,876 80,955 – Gross Shorts: 62,619 578,882 53,432 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.7 30.6 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.4 7.3 -9.0   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,767 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 49.4 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.2 73.3 3.6 – Net Position: 46,885 -48,399 1,514 – Gross Longs: 55,397 100,060 8,883 – Gross Shorts: 8,512 148,459 7,369 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.3 25.3 5.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -4.9 -8.0   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 182,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 176,644 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.5 49.3 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 69.9 10.2 – Net Position: 182,667 -155,663 -27,004 – Gross Longs: 229,930 371,675 50,027 – Gross Shorts: 47,263 527,338 77,031 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 37.1 25.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 2.9 -3.3   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,645 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.3 50.9 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 73.4 5.5 – Net Position: 73,398 -87,101 13,703 – Gross Longs: 102,073 198,015 35,202 – Gross Shorts: 28,675 285,116 21,499 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.8 43.4 64.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.9 14.5 -1.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 88,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,676 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.6 43.8 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 73.6 5.9 – Net Position: 88,831 -114,735 25,904 – Gross Longs: 106,273 168,517 48,694 – Gross Shorts: 17,442 283,252 22,790 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 23.3 67.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.0 2.6 29.3   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,428 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.9 40.6 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.9 51.6 12.3 – Net Position: 32,744 -30,120 -2,624 – Gross Longs: 100,918 110,947 30,976 – Gross Shorts: 68,174 141,067 33,600 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.4 72.1 72.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.9 15.4 10.5   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,491 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.7 43.9 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 43.8 13.8 – Net Position: 7,386 202 -7,588 – Gross Longs: 57,305 84,837 19,098 – Gross Shorts: 49,919 84,635 26,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.8 93.7 57.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.0 20.7 -15.1   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,682 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.1 41.6 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.9 79.5 4.5 – Net Position: 66,255 -75,657 9,402 – Gross Longs: 81,941 82,992 18,322 – Gross Shorts: 15,686 158,649 8,920 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.9 33.8 71.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.0 11.9 -19.5   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,494 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 45.5 5.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 45.5 4.8 – Net Position: -3,369 -126 3,495 – Gross Longs: 90,712 142,236 18,389 – Gross Shorts: 94,081 142,362 14,894 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.3 85.8 31.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -39.1 42.0 -32.3   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,881 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 38.0 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 43.4 11.4 – Net Position: 20,435 -18,089 -2,346 – Gross Longs: 105,566 128,087 36,114 – Gross Shorts: 85,131 146,176 38,460 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.6 33.9 98.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.6 -5.5 17.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 24 Charts: Metals Speculator bets lower as Gold & Copper bets drop

COT Week 24 Charts: Metals Speculator bets lower as Gold & Copper bets drop

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 16:18
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT Metals market speculator bets were lower this week as all five of the metals markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-20,670 contracts) and Copper (-10,083 contracts) with Platinum (-3,719 contracts), Silver (-3,399 contracts) and Palladium (-596 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Highlighting this week’s COT metals data was the further weakness in bullish bets for the Gold futures contracts. Gold speculators sharply dropped their bullish bets by -20,670 contracts this week and have now seen lower positions for two out of three weeks as well as for the seventh time in the past nine weeks. Over the nine-week time-frame, Gold speculator bets have fallen by a total of -99,689 contracts, going from +254,297 net positions on April 12th to +154,598 net positions this week. These decreases have brought the current level down to the least bullish standing of the past one hundred and fifty-nine weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019. Despite the speculator weakness, the Gold futures price has not fallen too sharply although prices have cooled off since hitting an almost two-year high of $2,078 on March 8th. The Gold price currently remains trading in its range between approximately $1,800 and $1,884 that has prevailed since early in May and over the longer-term, remains in an uptrend. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Copper (32.4 percent) is the leading pack this week although this score is just slightly above a extreme bearish score. All the other markets are currently in extreme bearish levels (below 20 percent) as speculator sentiment among the metals is very weak at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Platinum (5.4 percent) and Copper (1.3 percent) are the only two metals with rising trend scores. Gold and Silver are neck and neck for leading the trends to the downside with scores of -22.4 percent (Gold) and -22 percent (Silver), respectively, while Platinum (-7.3 percent) also has a negative trend score for the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,715,674 0 302,946 0 -341,654 100 38,708 70 Gold 497,456 13 154,598 0 -178,569 100 23,971 15 Silver 151,978 18 14,005 0 -22,047 100 8,042 0 Copper 187,247 17 -13,797 32 10,287 67 3,510 46 Palladium 7,740 6 -4,057 0 4,354 100 -297 27 Platinum 66,613 33 2,214 7 -6,793 96 4,579 26 Natural Gas 1,053,265 0 -123,485 42 74,310 54 49,175 96 Brent 171,026 17 -36,389 50 34,601 51 1,788 33 Heating Oil 268,199 23 8,475 55 -28,686 41 20,211 68 Soybeans 754,428 34 182,667 70 -155,663 37 -27,004 25 Corn 1,521,565 25 399,775 81 -344,196 23 -55,579 11 Coffee 202,656 0 46,885 79 -48,399 25 1,514 5 Sugar 800,806 1 170,483 72 -198,006 31 27,523 42 Wheat 336,890 13 20,435 46 -18,089 34 -2,346 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 154,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,268 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.6 24.5 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.5 60.4 4.4 – Net Position: 154,598 -178,569 23,971 – Gross Longs: 266,596 121,926 45,726 – Gross Shorts: 111,998 300,495 21,755 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 14.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.4 25.7 -31.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,404 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 39.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.4 54.1 10.7 – Net Position: 14,005 -22,047 8,042 – Gross Longs: 57,216 60,161 24,268 – Gross Shorts: 43,211 82,208 16,226 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.0 21.9 -16.9   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 55.2 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.6 49.7 6.9 – Net Position: -13,797 10,287 3,510 – Gross Longs: 51,077 103,433 16,449 – Gross Shorts: 64,874 93,146 12,939 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.4 66.5 45.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.3 0.1 -11.8   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,933 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 42.3 12.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.3 52.5 6.0 – Net Position: 2,214 -6,793 4,579 – Gross Longs: 25,085 28,194 8,597 – Gross Shorts: 22,871 34,987 4,018 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.7 25.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.4 -4.3 -8.8   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,461 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.5 71.8 14.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.9 15.5 18.1 – Net Position: -4,057 4,354 -297 – Gross Longs: 1,045 5,555 1,105 – Gross Shorts: 5,102 1,201 1,402 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 26.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 10.7 -34.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 5-year high while Euro bets dip into bearish level

Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 5-year high while Euro bets dip into bearish level

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 20:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. There were many really large moves this week in the COT positioning as the data was recorded on Tuesday – just one day ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 75 basis point increase in the US benchmark Fed Funds rate. Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets (Russian ruble futures positions have not been updated by the CFTC since March) we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency market positions was the Canadian dollar (24,264 contracts) and the Japanese yen (21,891 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (12,933 contracts), Swiss franc (9,324 contracts), US Dollar Index (6,538 contracts), British pound sterling (5,214 contracts), Australian dollar (4,642 contracts), Bitcoin (571 contracts) and Brazil real (508 contracts) also showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets were the Mexican peso (-59,107 contracts) and the Euro (-56,561 contracts) this week. Currency Speculators Notes: US Dollar Index speculators raised their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the seventh time in the past ten weeks. These increases pushed the large speculator standing (+44,476 contracts) to the highest level in the past two hundred and seventy-three weeks, dating back more than five years to March 21st of 2017. The most bullish level ever was +81,270 contracts on March 10th of 2015. The US dollar strength keeps rolling along and the overall standing has now remained bullish for the past fifty consecutive weeks, dating back to July of 2021. The US Dollar Index price has continued its strength as well and reached a high this week of over 105.75 which is the best level for the DXY since back in December of 2002. Euro speculators sharply dropped their positions this week by the most on record with a huge decline of -56,561 contracts. This record decline beat out the previous high of -52,107 contracts that took place on June 19th of 2018. Euro bets had been gaining over the past month and were at a total of +50,543 contracts before this week’s sharp turnaround which has now tipped the overall spec positioning into bearish territory for the first time since January. Japanese yen speculator bets surged this week (+21,891 contracts) and gained for the fifth straight week. Yen speculator positions have been in bearish territory for over a year and have been extremely week since many central banks around the world started raising their interest rates. The Bank of Japan has not raised rates and has signaled that it will not do so, creating large interest rate differentials compared to the other major currencies. Despite the spec bets increase this week, the yen exchange rate came under further pressure this week with the USDJPY price closing over the 135.00 exchange rate (and remaining near 20-year highs). Mexican Peso speculator bets fell sharply by -59,381 contracts this week and flipped the MXN speculator positioning from bullish to bearish. The weekly speculator decline is the largest fall in the past thirteen weeks and the decrease into a bearish standing is the first time since March 29th. Canadian dollar bets jumped this week by the most in the past seventy-seven weeks and brought the speculator position back into bullish territory for the first time in six weeks. CAD speculator bets have now gained for four straight weeks and the overall spec standing is residing at the highest level since July 2021. New Zealand dollar speculators also boosted their bets this week after the NZD positions had dropped in six out of the previous seven weeks. This week’s rise in weekly bets was the most in the past thirteen weeks but the overall speculator standing remains in bearish territory for the seventh straight week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (96.8 percent) are leading the strength scores and are all in extreme bullish positions. On the downside, the Mexican peso (16.1 percent) has fallen into extreme bearish positioning followed by the Japanese yen (25.9 percent) and British pound (26.7 percent) which are just above the 20 percent extreme bearish threshold. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the US Dollar Index (19.5 percent), Japanese yen (19.1 percent) and Swiss franc (18 percent) have the highest six-week trend scores currently. The Mexican peso also leads the trends on the downside with a -17.5 percent trend change. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,144 91 44,476 100 -47,736 0 3,260 52 EUR 668,164 69 -6,018 33 -28,495 68 34,513 32 GBP 238,322 63 -65,596 27 81,063 78 -15,467 24 JPY 232,513 77 -69,755 26 86,443 78 -16,688 20 CHF 39,362 20 -6,808 39 18,147 72 -11,339 19 CAD 175,219 47 23,202 65 -30,284 43 7,082 44 AUD 142,857 39 -43,254 45 44,710 52 -1,456 49 NZD 45,410 35 -6,838 60 9,773 45 -2,935 18 MXN 197,375 48 -26,381 16 23,148 82 3,233 57 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 69,931 67 47,213 97 -48,458 4 1,245 79 Bitcoin 12,242 68 1,061 100 -947 0 -114 10   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,938 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.9 2.9 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 80.9 3.8 – Net Position: 44,476 -47,736 3,260 – Gross Longs: 53,133 1,752 5,553 – Gross Shorts: 8,657 49,488 2,293 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 52.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.2 -19.1 7.1   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -56,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,543 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.9 58.3 7.5 – Net Position: -6,018 -28,495 34,513 – Gross Longs: 206,986 361,159 84,823 – Gross Shorts: 213,004 389,654 50,310 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 67.9 31.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.1 -1.1 5.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,810 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 77.2 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.8 43.2 15.1 – Net Position: -65,596 81,063 -15,467 – Gross Longs: 29,343 184,011 20,625 – Gross Shorts: 94,939 102,948 36,092 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.7 77.6 23.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -4.7 -0.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -69,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,646 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.0 75.6 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.0 38.4 16.8 – Net Position: -69,755 86,443 -16,688 – Gross Longs: 32,441 175,789 22,340 – Gross Shorts: 102,196 89,346 39,028 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.9 77.8 19.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.1 -16.5 5.7   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,132 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 66.2 22.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 20.1 51.7 – Net Position: -6,808 18,147 -11,339 – Gross Longs: 4,291 26,045 9,026 – Gross Shorts: 11,099 7,898 20,365 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.2 72.4 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.0 -19.8 17.9   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,062 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.3 45.1 16.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 62.4 12.7 – Net Position: 23,202 -30,284 7,082 – Gross Longs: 56,550 79,064 29,357 – Gross Shorts: 33,348 109,348 22,275 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 43.5 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.9 -14.4 6.3   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -43,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,896 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 59.9 14.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.4 28.6 16.0 – Net Position: -43,254 44,710 -1,456 – Gross Longs: 31,660 85,591 21,342 – Gross Shorts: 74,914 40,881 22,798 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.7 52.2 48.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.8 10.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,771 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.8 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.9 40.3 11.4 – Net Position: -6,838 9,773 -2,935 – Gross Longs: 14,894 28,062 2,236 – Gross Shorts: 21,732 18,289 5,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.8 45.5 18.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.4 -0.2 3.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -59,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,726 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.8 38.3 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 71.2 26.5 1.5 – Net Position: -26,381 23,148 3,233 – Gross Longs: 114,093 75,532 6,170 – Gross Shorts: 140,474 52,384 2,937 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.1 82.5 56.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.5 17.4 -2.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,705 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.0 12.5 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.5 81.8 2.8 – Net Position: 47,213 -48,458 1,245 – Gross Longs: 58,023 8,711 3,197 – Gross Shorts: 10,810 57,169 1,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.8 4.0 79.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -5.0 -4.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 490 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.7 0.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.0 8.2 9.2 – Net Position: 1,061 -947 -114 – Gross Longs: 9,996 62 1,008 – Gross Shorts: 8,935 1,009 1,122 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.3 -30.9 -3.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 25 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets mostly lower led by S&P500 Mini & Russell 2000

COT Week 25 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets mostly lower led by S&P500 Mini & Russell 2000

Invest Macro Invest Macro 25.06.2022 14:28
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as three out of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for stock markets was VIX (24,255 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (2,404 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (821 contracts) also showing a positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500 Mini (-148,597 contracts) and with Russell 2000 Mini (-10,350 contracts), Nikkei 225 Yen (-5,996 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (-4,840 contracts) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-3,184 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.   Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq Mini and the VIX are both in extreme bullish levels (above 80 percent). The Nikkei Stock Average is also above the midpoint of the past 3-year with a 69.9 percent score for a bullish reading. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the S&P 500 Mini and the Russell 200 Mini are leading the downside trends with -43.7 percent and -21.9 percent, respectively. The Nasdaq Mini and the Nikkei 225 Yen are the only markets with positive six week trends.   Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index S&P500-Mini 2,262,004 6 -114,319 35 144,197 92 -29,878 20 Nikkei 225 12,380 5 -1,592 70 2,139 40 -547 21 Nasdaq-Mini 236,624 34 30,806 92 -27,586 10 -3,220 42 DowJones-Mini 69,024 26 -25,473 4 28,937 98 -3,464 20 VIX 257,930 15 -49,923 84 55,730 16 -5,807 63 Nikkei 225 Yen 51,198 30 -3,047 25 25,170 88 -22,123 29   VIX Volatility Futures: The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -49,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 24,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,178 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.2 53.8 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 32.2 10.7 – Net Position: -49,923 55,730 -5,807 – Gross Longs: 46,982 138,746 21,718 – Gross Shorts: 96,905 83,016 27,525 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.2 16.2 63.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.0 -1.8 27.4   S&P500 Mini Futures: The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -114,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -148,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,278 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.1 75.7 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.2 69.4 11.3 – Net Position: -114,319 144,197 -29,878 – Gross Longs: 273,629 1,713,053 224,849 – Gross Shorts: 387,948 1,568,856 254,727 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.0 91.7 20.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.7 46.8 -5.2   Dow Jones Mini Futures: The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.9 69.8 15.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.8 27.9 20.1 – Net Position: -25,473 28,937 -3,464 – Gross Longs: 10,310 48,166 10,418 – Gross Shorts: 35,783 19,229 13,882 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.1 98.0 19.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 6.6 -16.3   Nasdaq Mini Futures: The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,402 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.0 46.9 16.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 58.5 17.7 – Net Position: 30,806 -27,586 -3,220 – Gross Longs: 82,888 110,913 38,577 – Gross Shorts: 52,082 138,499 41,797 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 9.5 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.7 -12.0 4.4   Russell 2000 Mini Futures: The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -105,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,246 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.1 88.3 3.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 69.3 3.7 – Net Position: -105,596 107,890 -2,294 – Gross Longs: 40,382 502,812 19,004 – Gross Shorts: 145,978 394,922 21,298 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.9 18.9 8.0   Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures: The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,413 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 56.8 17.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.1 39.5 22.1 – Net Position: -1,592 2,139 -547 – Gross Longs: 3,130 7,026 2,194 – Gross Shorts: 4,722 4,887 2,741 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.9 40.3 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.6 14.0 14.3   MSCI EAFE Mini Futures: The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,036 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.9 92.7 1.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 93.2 1.2 – Net Position: 196 -2,076 1,880 – Gross Longs: 18,931 358,172 6,538 – Gross Shorts: 18,735 360,248 4,658 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.1 77.7 35.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 7.7 -3.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 25 Charts: Energy Speculator bets on defensive led by WTI Crude Oil & Natural Gas

COT Week 25 Charts: Energy Speculator bets on defensive led by WTI Crude Oil & Natural Gas

Invest Macro Invest Macro 25.06.2022 14:35
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy markets speculator bets were lower on the week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (1,089 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (259 contracts) also showing a small positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was WTI Crude Oil (-13,444 contracts) with Natural Gas (-7,384 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-1,621 contracts) and Gasoline (-49 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the Heating Oil are both in bullish levels at the moment. All other energy markets are below the midpoint of the past 3-years and have bearish or extreme bearish readings. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the Heating Oil are again leading the six week trends with 19.9 percent and 20.8 percent, respectively. Brent Oil leads the downside trends with -11.4 percent over the past six weeks.   Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,658,636 0 289,502 0 -323,915 100 34,413 64 Gold 500,276 14 163,287 4 -186,929 96 23,642 14 Silver 145,356 12 18,419 7 -27,250 93 8,831 4 Copper 187,170 17 -20,938 27 18,928 72 2,010 37 Palladium 7,641 6 -4,046 0 4,511 100 -465 17 Platinum 64,946 30 1,491 6 -6,397 96 4,906 30 Natural Gas 1,030,971 0 -130,869 39 85,977 58 44,892 86 Brent 173,098 18 -38,010 47 36,052 53 1,958 36 Heating Oil 268,818 23 9,564 56 -28,204 41 18,640 63 Soybeans 745,494 32 178,379 68 -152,968 38 -25,411 28 Corn 1,512,152 23 380,169 79 -326,474 25 -53,695 12 Coffee 192,832 0 49,371 81 -52,348 22 2,977 20 Sugar 779,773 0 163,111 70 -181,280 34 18,169 30 Wheat 320,326 6 19,067 44 -15,407 38 -3,660 91   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 289,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 302,946 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 35.9 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 55.4 3.2 – Net Position: 289,502 -323,915 34,413 – Gross Longs: 388,496 594,860 86,668 – Gross Shorts: 98,994 918,775 52,255 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 63.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 10.7 -13.1   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,389 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.2 51.5 4.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.1 30.7 2.8 – Net Position: -38,010 36,052 1,958 – Gross Longs: 26,225 89,195 6,865 – Gross Shorts: 64,235 53,143 4,907 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.4 53.2 35.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.4 9.1 17.7   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -130,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -123,485 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.7 39.8 7.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 31.5 2.7 – Net Position: -130,869 85,977 44,892 – Gross Longs: 213,487 410,457 72,315 – Gross Shorts: 344,356 324,480 27,423 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.3 58.0 86.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 7.0 -8.6   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 31,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -49 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,456 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 54.3 7.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.8 68.3 4.3 – Net Position: 31,407 -42,080 10,673 – Gross Longs: 75,835 162,816 23,491 – Gross Shorts: 44,428 204,896 12,818 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.1 95.0 83.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.0 2.0 -13.5   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 9,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,475 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.1 51.0 16.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.5 61.5 9.8 – Net Position: 9,564 -28,204 18,640 – Gross Longs: 45,955 137,166 44,894 – Gross Shorts: 36,391 165,370 26,254 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.5 41.2 62.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.8 -12.7 -7.7   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,052 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,311 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.8 69.5 0.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.1 57.5 0.2 – Net Position: -8,052 7,764 288 – Gross Longs: 17,434 45,267 447 – Gross Shorts: 25,486 37,503 159 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.7 23.2 29.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.9 -18.8 -11.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 25 Charts: Soft Commodity Speculator bets slightly lower led by Corn & Sugar

COT Week 25 Charts: Soft Commodity Speculator bets slightly lower led by Corn & Sugar

Invest Macro Invest Macro 25.06.2022 15:28
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The soft commodities market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Live Cattle (7,378 contracts) and Cocoa (6,674 contracts) with Soybean Meal (6,540 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,673 contracts) and Coffee (2,486 contracts) also showing positive speculator contract changes for the week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-19,606 contracts) and Sugar (-7,372 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-5,868 contracts), Soybeans (-4,288 contracts), Wheat (-1,368 contracts) and Cotton (-210 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Coffee (81 percent) and Soybean Meal (80.6 percent) are in extreme bullish positions as of the latest data release. On the downside for strength scores is Lean Hogs (19.9 percent) which is just on the edge of being in a bearish extreme position and then Cocoa (20.9 percent) which is the next lowest. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Coffee (14.5 percent) and Soybean Meal (6.3 percent) have the highest trends as of the latest data. The overall effect of this chart shows how most of the soft commodities markets have really cooled off after really strong speculator sentiment since the start of the year. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,658,636 0 289,502 0 -323,915 100 34,413 64 Gold 500,276 14 163,287 4 -186,929 96 23,642 14 Silver 145,356 12 18,419 7 -27,250 93 8,831 4 Copper 187,170 17 -20,938 27 18,928 72 2,010 37 Palladium 7,641 6 -4,046 0 4,511 100 -465 17 Platinum 64,946 30 1,491 6 -6,397 96 4,906 30 Natural Gas 1,030,971 0 -130,869 39 85,977 58 44,892 86 Brent 173,098 18 -38,010 47 36,052 53 1,958 36 Heating Oil 268,818 23 9,564 56 -28,204 41 18,640 63 Soybeans 745,494 32 178,379 68 -152,968 38 -25,411 28 Corn 1,512,152 23 380,169 79 -326,474 25 -53,695 12 Coffee 192,832 0 49,371 81 -52,348 22 2,977 20 Sugar 779,773 0 163,111 70 -181,280 34 18,169 30 Wheat 320,326 6 19,067 44 -15,407 38 -3,660 91   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 380,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 399,775 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.3 44.7 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.2 66.3 12.9 – Net Position: 380,169 -326,474 -53,695 – Gross Longs: 504,174 675,580 140,912 – Gross Shorts: 124,005 1,002,054 194,607 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.6 25.4 12.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.6 12.6 1.1   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 163,111 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 170,483 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 49.2 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.2 72.4 6.7 – Net Position: 163,111 -181,280 18,169 – Gross Longs: 227,142 383,646 70,240 – Gross Shorts: 64,031 564,926 52,071 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.1 33.8 30.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 7.5 -18.9   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,885 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 47.6 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.7 74.7 2.8 – Net Position: 49,371 -52,348 2,977 – Gross Longs: 58,442 91,789 8,425 – Gross Shorts: 9,071 144,137 5,448 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.5 21.7 19.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.5 -17.0 19.8   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 178,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 182,667 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 50.5 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.4 71.0 10.0 – Net Position: 178,379 -152,968 -25,411 – Gross Longs: 226,191 376,155 49,215 – Gross Shorts: 47,812 529,123 74,626 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.5 37.9 28.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.1 -1.6 2.5   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 67,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,398 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.0 52.9 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6 73.0 5.7 – Net Position: 67,530 -77,869 10,339 – Gross Longs: 96,861 205,007 32,564 – Gross Shorts: 29,331 282,876 22,225 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.9 48.9 52.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.0 24.5 -29.5   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 95,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,831 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.5 42.8 11.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.9 72.6 5.7 – Net Position: 95,371 -119,799 24,428 – Gross Longs: 110,934 172,823 47,533 – Gross Shorts: 15,563 292,622 23,105 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.6 20.7 60.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -6.1 2.6   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,744 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.1 39.7 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.6 53.6 12.0 – Net Position: 40,122 -38,641 -1,481 – Gross Longs: 102,557 109,561 31,589 – Gross Shorts: 62,435 148,202 33,070 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.7 60.4 76.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.4 -3.9 8.8   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,386 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.6 43.4 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.2 45.0 15.0 – Net Position: 12,059 -3,041 -9,018 – Gross Longs: 59,031 80,955 18,981 – Gross Shorts: 46,972 83,996 27,999 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.9 89.9 49.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.7 9.2 -18.1   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 66,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,255 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.4 39.7 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.0 77.6 4.8 – Net Position: 66,045 -72,681 6,636 – Gross Longs: 81,410 76,251 15,830 – Gross Shorts: 15,365 148,932 9,194 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.7 35.5 54.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.0 11.7 -26.7   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,369 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 43.9 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 45.5 3.7 – Net Position: 3,305 -4,856 1,551 – Gross Longs: 93,606 135,958 12,977 – Gross Shorts: 90,301 140,814 11,426 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.9 81.2 12.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.4 21.3 -41.9   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,368 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,435 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.1 39.1 10.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.2 44.0 11.5 – Net Position: 19,067 -15,407 -3,660 – Gross Longs: 102,924 125,399 33,167 – Gross Shorts: 83,857 140,806 36,827 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.9 37.8 91.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 3.4 1.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 25 Charts: Metals Speculator bets slightly higher as Gold & Silver bets gain

COT Week 25 Charts: Metals Speculator bets slightly higher as Gold & Silver bets gain

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.06.2022 13:25
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT metals market speculator bets were mostly higher for the week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (8,689 contracts) and Silver (4,414 contracts) with Palladium (11 contracts) also showing a small positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Copper (-7,141 contracts) while Platinum (-723 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week. Notes: Highlighting the data for metals this week is the Gold positioning. Gold speculative positions rebounded a bit this week after seeing a sharp decline last week of over -20,000 contracts. The Gold net position has been mostly on the defensive since March 8th when the spec level had reached a total of +274,388 contracts which was a 61-week high, dating back to January 5th of 2021. Since then, the overall bullish position has shed a total of -111,101 contracts to settle at this week’s net standing of +163,287 contracts (just 4.4 percent level of its 3-year range). The Gold futures price, however, remains in an uptrend on the daily charts and is sitting right on a significant upward trendline that started in March of 2021. Silver positioning, much like Gold’s, has been under pressure over the past fifteen weeks. On March 8th, Silver bets reached a forty-three week high at +52,297 contracts, coinciding with the Silver futures price hitting a 2022 high of $27.49. Since then, speculator bets have cooled and have fallen in ten out of the past fifteen weeks (and by a total of -33,878 contracts) to this week’s standing of just +18,419 contracts. The Silver futures price has been on a downtrend since April, currently trading at just over $21.00 and possibly on its way towards the significant psychological level of $20.00. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Copper (27 percent) remains the only precious metals futures market that is not in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent). A rising interest rate environment with a strong US Dollar has weighed on the precious metals category as speculator futures sentiment continues to be really weak at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Gold (-15.1 percent) and Palladium (-4.5 percent) lead the downward trends over the past six weeks. Copper (1.2 percent) and Platinum (0.2 percent) are the only two markets with positive trends over the time period. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,658,636 0 289,502 0 -323,915 100 34,413 64 Gold 500,276 14 163,287 4 -186,929 96 23,642 14 Silver 145,356 12 18,419 7 -27,250 93 8,831 4 Copper 187,170 17 -20,938 27 18,928 72 2,010 37 Palladium 7,641 6 -4,046 0 4,511 100 -465 17 Platinum 64,946 30 1,491 6 -6,397 96 4,906 30 Natural Gas 1,030,971 0 -130,869 39 85,977 58 44,892 86 Brent 173,098 18 -38,010 47 36,052 53 1,958 36 Heating Oil 268,818 23 9,564 56 -28,204 41 18,640 63 Soybeans 745,494 32 178,379 68 -152,968 38 -25,411 28 Corn 1,512,152 23 380,169 79 -326,474 25 -53,695 12 Coffee 192,832 0 49,371 81 -52,348 22 2,977 20 Sugar 779,773 0 163,111 70 -181,280 34 18,169 30 Wheat 320,326 6 19,067 44 -15,407 38 -3,660 91   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 163,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 154,598 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.6 24.0 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.0 61.4 4.1 – Net Position: 163,287 -186,929 23,642 – Gross Longs: 268,119 120,045 44,380 – Gross Shorts: 104,832 306,974 20,738 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 96.0 13.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.1 19.7 -38.5   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,005 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.5 37.7 17.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.8 56.5 11.1 – Net Position: 18,419 -27,250 8,831 – Gross Longs: 54,451 54,828 25,018 – Gross Shorts: 36,032 82,078 16,187 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.9 93.4 4.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.0 4.2 -13.8   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,141 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,797 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.8 55.5 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.0 45.3 8.0 – Net Position: -20,938 18,928 2,010 – Gross Longs: 50,230 103,789 16,909 – Gross Shorts: 71,168 84,861 14,899 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.3 72.5 36.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.2 -0.2 -7.9   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,214 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.5 43.9 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.2 53.7 5.4 – Net Position: 1,491 -6,397 4,906 – Gross Longs: 25,676 28,487 8,413 – Gross Shorts: 24,185 34,884 3,507 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.5 96.2 30.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.2 -1.4 12.5   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -4,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,057 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.2 74.0 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 66.2 15.0 18.6 – Net Position: -4,046 4,511 -465 – Gross Longs: 1,009 5,655 960 – Gross Shorts: 5,055 1,144 1,425 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.1 100.0 17.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.5 6.0 -16.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators boost Japanese Yen bets to 15-week high while Canadian dollar bets drop sharply

Currency Speculators boost Japanese Yen bets to 15-week high while Canadian dollar bets drop sharply

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.06.2022 13:28
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Currency market speculator bets overall were mixed this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover (Note: Russian Ruble positions have not been updated by CFTC since March) had higher positioning this week while six markets had lower contracts for the week. Leading the gains for currency markets was the Japanese yen (11,301 contracts) and the British pound sterling (2,349 contracts) with the Australian dollar (2,648 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,415 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (534 contracts) also showing positive changes on the week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-19,097 contracts) and the Euro (-9,587 contracts) with the Brazil real (-2,868 contracts), Mexican peso (-489 contracts), Swiss franc (-349 contracts) and Bitcoin (-15 contracts) also showing lower speculator positions through June 21st. Currency Position Notables: Japanese Yen large speculator bets rose for the 6th straight week this week and this improvement has brought the overall speculator standing to the least bearish level of the past 15 weeks at -58,454 contracts. Speculators have trimmed a total of 52,000 contracts off of the total bearish position in these past six weeks after the standing hit -110,454 contracts on May 10th. Yen bets have been in bearish territory since March 13th of 2021 (67 weeks running) with the highest bearish level of the cycle occurring on April 12th at a total of -111,827 contracts. Canadian dollar bets dropped sharply by -19,097 contracts this week and fell for the first time in the last five weeks. CAD speculator bets had risen over the previous four weeks by a total of +37,698 contracts. The decline this week brings the CAD speculator position into a virtual neutral level at an overall bullish position of just +4,105 contracts as the speculator position has yet to find a sustainable trend and has been alternating between bearish and bullish net positions over the past few months. The US Dollar Index rose for a 3rd straight week this week and hit a new 5-year high level at +45,010 contracts. This is the first time the overall position has topped +45,000 contracts since March 21st of 2017 and the continued bullish sentiment for the DXY has pushed the US Dollar Index strength score (3-year range) to the very top of its range (100 percent – extreme bullish). Euro positions fell for the third straight week and dropped to its most bearish level of the past 29 weeks. The strength score for the Euro has dropped to just a 30.2 percent and it seems the speculator positioning is catching up to the bearishness of the EURUSD exchange rate. The speculator net position had been at a twelve-week high on May 31st at a total of +52,272 contracts before dropping over the past three weeks to settle at -15,605 contracts this week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, ranging from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish, below 20 percent is extreme bearish and 100 percent is the top of the range) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (99.7 percent) and the Brazilian Real (94 percent) are all in extreme bullish positions. On the bearish side, the Mexican Peso is the only currency currently in an extreme bearish position with a score of 15.9 percent. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese Yen (32.0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (21.8 percent) are leading the strength trends over the past six weeks. Both of these markets have overall bearish net positions but have seen the bearish sentiment cooling off strongly. The Mexican Peso leads the downside trends for another week with a -18.6 percent score. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 58,543 86 45,010 100 -46,746 2 1,736 36 EUR 671,718 70 -15,605 30 -18,182 71 33,787 30 GBP 228,266 57 -63,247 28 77,902 76 -14,655 25 JPY 218,076 67 -58,454 33 74,349 72 -15,895 21 CHF 37,669 16 -7,157 38 14,958 67 -7,801 31 CAD 140,047 23 4,105 44 -6,578 63 2,473 35 AUD 137,017 35 -40,606 47 44,608 52 -4,002 43 NZD 42,889 30 -5,423 62 8,756 44 -3,333 13 MXN 191,265 45 -26,870 16 22,977 82 3,893 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 68,858 65 44,345 94 -45,996 6 1,651 84 Bitcoin 13,537 77 1,046 100 -995 0 -51 12   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 534 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,476 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 88.2 2.9 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 82.7 4.8 – Net Position: 45,010 -46,746 1,736 – Gross Longs: 51,606 1,676 4,522 – Gross Shorts: 6,596 48,422 2,786 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.8 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 1.6 35.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.1 -15.2 -7.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,018 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 55.6 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.4 58.3 7.7 – Net Position: -15,605 -18,182 33,787 – Gross Longs: 195,554 373,695 85,208 – Gross Shorts: 211,159 391,877 51,421 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.2 70.9 30.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.9 7.0 12.1   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -63,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 77.6 7.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.2 43.5 14.2 – Net Position: -63,247 77,902 -14,655 – Gross Longs: 28,470 177,170 17,735 – Gross Shorts: 91,717 99,268 32,390 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.4 75.8 25.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.8 -10.3 2.1   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -58,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,755 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.4 71.6 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.3 37.6 17.9 – Net Position: -58,454 74,349 -15,895 – Gross Longs: 35,864 156,248 23,099 – Gross Shorts: 94,318 81,899 38,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.9 71.9 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.0 -24.7 -2.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,808 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.1 66.2 25.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 26.5 46.4 – Net Position: -7,157 14,958 -7,801 – Gross Longs: 3,068 24,927 9,673 – Gross Shorts: 10,225 9,969 17,474 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 67.3 31.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.8 -23.7 21.2   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,202 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 47.9 20.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.2 52.6 18.9 – Net Position: 4,105 -6,578 2,473 – Gross Longs: 42,260 67,084 29,011 – Gross Shorts: 38,155 73,662 26,538 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.0 63.2 35.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.7 -7.9 0.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,254 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.2 60.2 13.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.8 27.7 16.6 – Net Position: -40,606 44,608 -4,002 – Gross Longs: 31,745 82,514 18,756 – Gross Shorts: 72,351 37,906 22,758 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.2 52.2 42.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -1.9 3.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,838 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.2 60.8 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.8 40.3 12.8 – Net Position: -5,423 8,756 -3,333 – Gross Longs: 14,652 26,056 2,145 – Gross Shorts: 20,075 17,300 5,478 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.2 43.9 13.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.7 -12.5 6.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,381 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.3 45.8 3.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 64.3 33.8 1.3 – Net Position: -26,870 22,977 3,893 – Gross Longs: 96,147 87,609 6,317 – Gross Shorts: 123,017 64,632 2,424 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.9 82.4 59.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.6 18.3 -1.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,213 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.7 14.6 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.3 81.3 2.3 – Net Position: 44,345 -45,996 1,651 – Gross Longs: 55,599 10,020 3,238 – Gross Shorts: 11,254 56,016 1,587 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.0 6.4 84.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.5 -3.9 4.7     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,061 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.5 0.6 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.8 7.9 8.1 – Net Position: 1,046 -995 -51 – Gross Longs: 10,495 78 1,048 – Gross Shorts: 9,449 1,073 1,099 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.7 0.0 11.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -11.9 -3.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
What role does the broker infrastructure model play in your profitability?

What role does the broker infrastructure model play in your profitability?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 27.06.2022 12:31
What role does the broker infrastructure model play in your profitability? The layout of a broker's trading infrastructure is usually not something that would capture the attention of too many traders. However, did you know that a surprisingly large number of brokers do not send their clients' trade orders to the real market, but rather create an artificial counterparty themselves are market makers? This creates motivation for order manipulation, which, on the other hand, is indeed something that traders should be interested in. What is the broker infrastructure model? The broker model refers to the way in which a broker's trading infrastructure is built to process the trading orders of its clients. While it may seem that way, when trading, an order entered by you into the platform may not always travel to the interbank market where it is then expected to be paired with an order from another trader or institution. In fact, there are models that do not send your trade orders to the interbank market. Instead, they form a counterparty to your order immediately, on their side. Market maker model (MM) Brokers of this type are usually among the larger ones on the scene. In order to act as a counterparty to all their clients' trades, they need to have a really high level of liquidity. However, this could lend them a fair amount of motivation to meddle with the trading results of their clients. If it is a proven broker without a dark past, there is probably no reason to worry. However, there are known cases where even larger brokerage firms have artificially increased slippages, set minimum stop loss intervals, or influenced their clients' transactions in other similar ways. The reason for this behavior is quite clear. In the MM model, all losing client trades go back to the broker (not to the interbank market, where they would end up in other broker operating models). Thus, brokers built on the MM model may have a vested interest in the loss-making performance of their own clients.   Figure 1: Schematic of the MM broker's operation STP model From the "straight-through processing", brokers of this type have their infrastructure set up in such a way that they can only match their clients' orders with orders from so-called liquidity providers in the interbank market. The broker in this case charges a commission on each trade in the form of a slightly higher spread and matches clients with entities in the real market. Liquidity providers (LP) The quality of an STP broker is largely shaped by the nature of the liquidity providers with which it works.   Another broker operating on a market maker model or a bank. MFT - multilateral trading facility - a type of exchange on which different participants are linked together. Prime of primes - this provider collects prices from the interbank market and combines them with other offers from financial institutions. This LP thus has the ability to provide the best prices to the broker's clients.   Figure 2: Difference between STP and MM broker model Hybrid model Combination of STP and MM models. A broker based on the hybrid model has the ability to send a certain part of client orders to the interbank market and act as a counterparty for the rest. The broker thus has the ability to "get rid" of profitable clients by sending their orders to an external entity. How to find out which model is broker built on? Recognizing a broker's model may not be easy at first as it requires at least a partial orientation on the broker's website. The safe bet, however, is to check the broker's license directly on the Regulators website. The information about the infrastructure model is listed there in black and white. Just look up whether the broker is authorised to "deal on own account". STP model brokerage will not have it there. Figure 3: An example of the types of services Purple Trading can perform under its license (source: https://www.cysec.gov.cy/en-GB/entities/investment-firms/cypriot/72454/) What role does the broker model play in your profitability? While there is no way to equate a broker's model with the profitability of its clients, there are certain things that cannot be overlooked. While an STP broker has the same rate of earnings whether your trade is successful or not (because it profits from spreads), the MM and hybrid models can already benefit from your potential failures. Let's also mention the fact that by forming a counterparty to your trades on their side, these brokers potentially have the motivation to manipulate the market to their advantage. So as a trader, you logically have to wonder whether a broker who has such tools in his hand is not abusing them to enrich himself at your expense.
The Swing Overview – Week 25 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 25 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 27.06.2022 13:52
The Swing Overview – Week 25 There was a rather quiet week in which the major world stock indices shook off previous losses and have been slowly rising since Monday. However, this is probably only a temporary correction of the current bearish trend.  The CNB Bank Board met for the last time in its old composition and raised the interest rate to 7%, the highest level since 1999. However, the koruna barely reacted to this increase. The reason is that the main risks are still in place and fear of a recession keeps the markets in a risk-off sentiment that benefits the US dollar. Macroeconomic data We had a bit of a quiet week when it comes to macroeconomic data in the US. Industrial production data was reported, which grew by 0.2% month-on-month in May, which is less than the growth seen in April, when production grew by 1.4%. While the growth is slower than expected, it is still growth, which is a positive thing.   In terms of labor market data, the number of jobless claims held steady last week, reaching 229k. Thus, compared to the previous week, the number of claims fell by 2 thousand.   The US Dollar took a break in this quiet week and came down from its peak which is at 106, 86. Overall, however, the dollar is still in an uptrend. The US 10-year bond yields also fell last week and are currently hovering around 3%. The fall in bond yields was then a positive boost for equity indices. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index has been gaining since Monday, June 20, 2022. However, this is probably not a signal of a major bullish reversal. Fundamental reasons still rather speak for a weakening and so it could be a short-term correction of the current bearish trend. The rise is probably caused by long-term investors who were buying the dip. Next week the US will report the GDP data which could be the catalyst for further movement.  Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The index has currently reached the resistance level according to the H4 chart, which is in the region of 3,820 - 3,836. The next strong resistance is then in the area of 3,870 - 3,900 where the previous support was broken and turned into the resistance. The current nearest support is 3 640 - 3 670.    German DAX index The manufacturing PMI for June came in at 52.0. The previous month's PMI was 54.8. While a value above 50 indicates an expected expansion, it must be said that the PMI has essentially been declining since February 2022. This, together with other data coming out of Germany, suggests a certain pessimism, which is also reflected in the DAX index. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX broke support according to the H4 chart at 12,950 - 12,980 but then broke back above that level, so we don't have a valid breakout. Overall, however, the DAX is in a downtrend and the technical analysis does not show a stronger sign of a reversal of this trend yet. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 13,130 - 13,190. The next resistance is then at 13 420 - 13 440. Strong support according to the daily chart is 12,443 - 12,600.   Eurozone inflation at a new record Consumer inflation in the Eurozone for May rose by 8.1% year-on-year as expected by analysts. On a month-on-month basis, inflation added 0.8% compared to April. The rise in inflation could support the ECB's decision to raise rates possibly by more than the 0.25% expected so far, which is expected to happen at the July meeting.  Figure 4: EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart From a technical perspective, the euro has bounced off support on the pair with the US dollar according to the daily chart, which is in the 1.0340 - 1.0370 range and continues to strengthen. Overall, however, the pair is still in a downtrend. The US Fed has been much more aggressive in fighting inflation than the ECB and this continues to put pressure on the bearish trend in the euro. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.058 - 1.0600. Strong resistance according to the daily chart is at 1.0780 - 1.0800.   The Czech National Bank raised the interest rate again Rising inflation, which has already reached 16% in the Czech Republic, forced the CNB's board to raise interest rates again. The key interest rate is now at 7%. The last time the interest rate was this high was in 1999. This is the last decision of the old Bank Board. In August, the new board, which is not clearly hawkish, will decide on monetary policy. Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how they approach the rising inflation.   The current risks, according to the CNB, are higher price growth at home and abroad, the risk of a halt in energy supplies from Russia and generally rising inflation expectations. The lingering risk is, of course, the war in Ukraine. The CNB has also decided to continue intervening in the market to keep the Czech koruna exchange rate within acceptable limits and prevent it from depreciating, which would increase import inflation pressures. Figure 5: The USD/CZK and The EUR/CZK on the daily chart Looking at the charts, the koruna hardly reacted at all to the CNB's decision to raise rates sharply. Against the dollar, the koruna is weakening somewhat, while against the euro the koruna is holding its value around 24.60 - 24.80. The appreciation of the koruna after the interest rate hike was probably prevented by uncertainty about how the new board will treat inflation, and also by the fact that there is a risk-off sentiment in global markets and investors prefer so-called safe havens in such cases, which include the US dollar.