usd to rub

EUR: Becalmed

EUR/USD continues to trade in very narrow ranges, with US Treasury yields and USD/CNH probably the main short-term drives in thin summer markets. 1.0850-1.0930 looks to be the short-term range and we do not see a local catalyst for a breakout until tomorrow's release of the flash PMI readings for August. As to tightening expectations, the market only now prices in 20bp of rate hikes by the turn of the year - probably underestimating the chance of a 25bp ECB rate hike in September.

The Eurozone data calendar is light today. But amidst the pessimism in the Eurozone we should at least see a better monthly current account surplus reading - somewhere in the EUR10-20bn area. Remember this compares to the huge EUR35bn monthly deficits seen a year ago, when the spike in energy prices sank the euro.

Elsewhere, high US rates are keeping under pressure the high beta European currencies of Norway's krone and Sweden's krona. It seems a long time until the krona could possibly deriv

The relatively weak ruble (RUB). Russia's attack on Ukraine - state after 71 days

The relatively weak ruble (RUB). Russia's attack on Ukraine - state after 71 days

Center Of Eastern Studies Center Of Eastern Studies 09.05.2022 07:36
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has reported that the defenders have moved to the offensive in the Kharkiv and Izyum directions, where fierce fighting is ongoing. According to the collective reports of the operational commands ‘East’, Combined Forces Operations (in Donbas), ‘South’ and the Air Force Command, the Russians lost within 24 hours: an aircraft, 14 unmanned aerial vehicles, 11 tanks and 14 armoured fighting vehicles, among others. The defence of the Odesa area reported that a winged missile was shot down and a Black Sea Fleet frigate was hit.   The invaders continue to implement the ‘ruble zone’ in the occupied territories, which is intended to weaken the ties of these territories with the Ukrainian economy and create links with the so-called people’s republics and Russia. The announcement of the introduction of the ruble from 1 May has still not been realised – the hryvnia remains in circulation. In Kherson, pensions and social benefits are to continue to be paid by Ukrainian institutions. Russian soldiers, after receiving their pay, exchange roubles for hryvnias in exchange offices. In unofficial circulation, foreign currencies, above all the dollar, are gaining in importance. Difficulties in the rapid introduction of the rouble have led the occupier to announce a four-month transition period allowing payments in Ukrainian currency. During this time, it is planned to open Sbierbank outlets and introduce regulations requiring local entrepreneurs to open ruble accounts with it.   In the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Russians are forcing residents to fill in documents on land ownership. On presentation of these, cultivation licences will be issued. Failure to register acreage risks confiscation. Security has been tightened in some Ukrainian cities from 7–10 May as authorities anticipate that rocket fire will increase in connection with Russian Victory Day celebrations. The mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk called on the population to temporarily leave the city and not to gather in public places. In Zaporizhzhia, a stricter curfew was announced, including a ban on movement around the city.   The third stage of the UN-led evacuation of Mariupol has been completed. So far, over 500 civilians have left the city, including 200 people from the embattled Azovstal metallurgical plant. In between transports, aggressor troops are shelling the defended facility. The evacuation is expected to continue on 6 May.   In an interview with the AP news agency, Alexander Lukashenko stated that the Belarusian army would not take part in Russia’s war against Ukraine, and that everything Minsk could and can offer Moscow (logistical security of forces, the possibility of air and missile attacks from Belarusian territory) had already been done. He added that the war could be ended within a week, but this would not happen ‘because of the attitude of the United States and Britain’... read more

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