usd to nzd

Relevance up to 08:00 2022-08-21 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. NZD/USD: The chart shows the movement of NZD/USD in the four-hour (H4) chart. Comparing the recent movement to that of the previous ones, it is clear that there was a correction towards the key support level of 0.6262. The trend will remain bullish and the quote will continue to go towards 0.6435 as long as 0.6245 remains a support level. Its breakdown will change the current trend. Good luck! Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319257

Relevance up to 12:00 2022-08-19 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. NZD/USD Minor Growth The NZD/USD pair increased in the short term and now has almost reached the downtrend line which represents an upside obstacle. After its strong drop, a minor rebound was natural. It could come back to test and retest the downtrend line before resuming its drop. It was traded at 0.6289 at the time of writing, far above today's low of 0.6248. Technically, today's low represents a downside obstacle. NZD/USD Trading Conclusion Staying below the downtrend line and dropping under the low of 0.6248 may announce more declines. This scenario could bring new selling opportunities.     Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289069

Every asset class has been on a rollercoaster ride as investors are watching central bankers all around globe tighten monetary policy to fight inflation.  Financial conditions are starting to tighten and the risks of slower growth are accelerating.   New Zealand NZ Retail Card Spending has downside risks and the Food Price Index, upside risks this week. The cost of living has become the central issue in New Zealand at the moment and a high FPI will heap pressure on the RBNZ to accelerate rate hikes as the economy starts to show signs of stress elsewhere. NZD/USD has traded very heavy in past two weeks as investors price in a hard landing and an RBNZ behind the curve, and as risk sentiment sours internationally. NZD/USD is closing at the weeks lows and could test 0.6200 this week.   Japan Japan releases a raft of second tier data this week. THe 10 and 30-year JGB auctions will be closely watched, if only for signs of poor cover ratio given the BOJ JGB intervention and weakening Yen. THe centre of attention will remain the USD/JPY as the US/Japan rate differential widens. USD/JPY could well test 135.00 in the week ahead if the negative sentiment sweeping markets on Friday spills into next week. Higher oil prices will also weigh onthe Yen. We expect the noise to increase from Tokyo but little chance of USD/JPY intervention at these levels.   Singapore No significant data. The currency remains under pressure as a proxy for China and also because the MAS meets six monthly to determine monetary policy. The next meeting will not be until October to determine if monetary policy gets tightened once again. 

The New Zealand dollar continues to show volatility this week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6182, down 0.48%, erasing all of Tuesday’s gains. New Zealand retail sales expected to rebound Later today, New Zealand releases retail sales for the second quarter. The markets are expecting a strong rebound of 1.7%, after the Q1 reading of -0.5%. The release is expected to reflect pent-up consumer demand after Covid restrictions were lifted in April. A stronger-than-expected release could give the New Zealand dollar a lift. The RBNZ will be carefully monitoring the retail sales release, as a strong reading would indicate that the economy remains strong and can continue to absorb higher interest rates. The RBNZ has been aggressive, raising rates by 50 basis points at four straight meetings. The central bank is expected to add another 50bp hike at the October meeting, which would bring the cash rate to 3.50%. Inflation has hit 7.3%, but the RBNZ is confident that it will peak soon and expects inflation to fall to 3.8% by the end of 2023. The central bank is cautiously positive about the economic outlook, predicting that the economic slowdown will not turn into a full-blown recession. Over in the US, durable goods orders for July were a mix. The headlines reading slipped to 0.0%, down sharply from 2.2% in June and missing the estimate of 0.6%. Core durable goods was unchanged at 0.3%. The weak data did not weigh on the US dollar, unlike the case after a weak US New Home Sales release on Tuesday, which sent the US dollar broadly lower. Investors are now shifting attention to Thursday’s US Preliminary GDP for Q2. In July, the initial GDP estimate came in at -0.9%, settting off a storm of debate as to whether the US economy was in a recession after back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The debate had political overtones as well, with the White House, trying to avoid being tainted with the “R” word, went to great pains to point out that there are other definitions of a recession. The second GDP estimate is likely to come in at -0.8% or -0.9%; any other number would be a surprise and would likely result in some volatility for the US dollar. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD faces resistance at 0.6227 and 0.6366 There is support at 0.6126 and 0.6075 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZ dollar slides below 62, retail sales next - MarketPulseMarketPulse

NZD/USD has stabilized today after ending the week with sharp losses. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6149, up 0.22% on the day. Earlier in the day, NZD/USD touched a low of 0.6102, its lowest level since July 14th. Powell’s speech hammers the New Zealand dollar The US dollar ended the week with sharp gains against the major currencies, with the exception of the euro. The New Zealand dollar took it on the chin, as NZD/USD fell 1.43% on Friday. The catalyst for the US dollar’s upward swing was a hawkish speech from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell’s message didn’t contain anything we haven’t heard in recent weeks from the Fed, but this time around, investors internalized Powell’s no-nonsense message that the Fed plans to stay aggressive until the fight against inflation is won. Powell stressed that the Fed would be vigilant not to ease policy prematurely, and added that the Fed would not change policy based on one or two reports of lower inflation. This statement could well have been a warning to the markets not to expect a U-turn in policy if inflation drops, as was the case following the July inflation report. Fed's Governor speech Powell’s speech was unusually brief, which may have been an attempt to prevent investors from looking for some dovish remarks in the speech and ignoring Powell’s message. The concise speech left no room for ambiguity – the Fed will continue to raise rates until it’s convinced that inflation has peaked and is on the decline. Powell’s choice of language was telling – he said that the current policy would cause “some pain”, a phrase which the markets undoubtedly did not want to hear. Powell also avoided language that the markets might have construed as being dovish, such as a “soft recovery”. The head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Adrian Orr, was also in attendance at Jackson Hole. Orr noted that the RBNZ’s policy of higher rates had slowed the economy and warned that economic growth could be “anemic”. Orr said at least two more rate hikes were likely, at which stage the RBNZ hoped to determine rate policy based on economic data. NZD/USD Technical 0.6174 is a weak resistance line. 0.6277 is the next line of resistance There is support at 0.6057 and 0.5979 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZ dollar falls to 6-week low - MarketPulseMarketPulse

AUDNZD is overall bullish however, it is approaching a strong resistance and upper blue trendline so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.   on H1: AUDNZD is forming a channel in red but the lower trendline is not valid yet, so we are waiting for a new swing low to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. (projection in purple) Trigger => Waiting for that swing low to form and then sell after a momentum candle close below it (gray zone) Meanwhile, until the sell is activated, AUDNZD can still trade higher. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.  

NZD/USD remains under pressure and is trading below the symbolic 0.60 level. Earlier today, the pair fell to 0.5976, its lowest level since May 2020. New Zealand dollar slides after US inflation data It was Black Tuesday for the New Zealand dollar, as NZD/USD declined by 2.24%. The US dollar recorded strong gains across the board, with the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars taking a beating. The catalyst for the US dollar’s sharp upswing was the August inflation report. Although headline inflation fell for a second straight month, investors were far from impressed, sending the equity markets tumbling and the US dollar sharply higher. Headline inflation dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, but missed the consensus of 8.1%. Core CPI rose to 6.3%, up from 5.9% and above the forecast of 6.1%. The markets had priced in a 75bp increase in September followed by 50bp in November and 25bp in December. However, with inflation higher than expected, the Fed may not be in a position to scale back and market pricing for the September meeting is fluctuating – currently, there is a 64% chance of a 75bp move and a 34% likelihood of a 100bp increase. Larry Summers, a former Treasury Secretary, said on Tuesday that the inflation report indicated that the US has a “serious inflation problem” and a 100bp move would “reinforce credibility”. Read next: Markets Look Like Battlefields After The US Inflation Print. S&P 500, Dow Jones And Nasdaq All Plunged. Forex: Will BoJ Intervene?| FXMAG.COM New Zealand will release GDP for the second quarter on Thursday. The economy is expected to rebound with a strong 1.0% gain, after a decline of 0.3% in Q1. The economy is performing well, with a strong rebound after the Covid pandemic. The country’s credit rating was reaffirmed by S&P today at AA+, an important thumbs up for the New Zealand economy. NZD/USD Technical 0.6017 is a weak resistance line, followed by 0.6085 There is support at 0.5929 and 0.5861 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZ dollar falls to 26-month low - MarketPulseMarketPulse

GBPUSD finds support The pound bounces back as Britain’s core CPI stayed stubbornly high in August. The sharp decline came to a halt at the base of a previous bullish breakout at 1.1480. The RSI’s oversold condition attracted some bargain hunters in the demand zone. The support-turned-resistance at 1.1620 is the next hurdle where trapped buyers would be looking to exit. However, its breach would send Sterling back to 1.1730 on the 20-day moving average, suggesting that the bulls may not yet have had their last word. NZDUSD breaks key support The New Zealand dollar recovers over upbeat Q2 GDP. The pair came under pressure near a former support (0.6160) over the 20-day moving average. The long bearish candle is a sign of capitulation as the short-term mood tanks. A break below the psychological support of 0.6000 has invalidated the recent rebound and indicated that the path of least resistance is down. May 2020’s lows around 0.5920 could be the next target. An oversold RSI may cause a bounce to 0.6050 where trend followers could sell into strength. USOIL hits resistance WTI crude rallied after a slower increase in US inventories. From the daily chart’s perspective, sentiment remains downbeat after the price broke below the key support at 86.00. The bears may see bounces as opportunities to sell at a better price. The current recovery has met stiff selling pressure at 90.00 which coincides with the 30-day moving average. However, if the buy side manages to push past this supply zone, 94.00 could be next. 84.20 is the closest support and its breach could resume the downtrend below 81.30.

New Zealand GDP surprises on the upside New Zealand posted a stronger-than-expected GDP report for Q2. The economy climbed 1.7%, reversing the 0.2% decline in the first quarter. The upswing in growth was driven by the government’s easing of Covid restrictions. The GDP gain removed any fears of a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The New Zealand dollar is almost unchanged on the day, trading at the 0.6000 line. Now that New Zealand’s economy is flexing its muscles, what does that mean for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand? The central bank was almost spot on with its GDP forecast at the August meeting, predicting a gain of 1.8%. At the meeting, the Bank projected that the cash rate would peak at 4.1% in mid-2023. Today’s GDP report is not expected to change that stance, with the Bank likely to raise rates by 50bp in the October and November meetings, which would bring the cash rate to an even 4.0%. The Reserve Bank has its hands full with hot inflation, but is relief on the way? The Bank’s steep rate-tightening cycle is expected to slow inflation, which is running at 7.3%. In August, the Bank projected that inflation would fall to 6.4%. Higher interest rates will, sooner or later, bring down inflation, but of course, that is not the whole story. As borrowing and mortgage rates rise, domestic demand will fall, and this trend cannot be halted at the switch of a button. In other words, the effects of a tighter policy will be felt long after the Reserve Bank ends its rate hikes – perhaps the central bank’s biggest challenge is to guide the economy to a soft landing as it grapples with high inflation. . NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6017. Next, there is resistance at 0.6085 There is support at 0.5929 and 0.5861 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZD steady after solid GDP - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure, as NZD/USD is having a dreadful week, down 2.47%. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5950, down 0.27%. NZ Manufacturing PMI surprises to the upside It has been a solid week for New Zealand data, but that hasn’t helped the New Zealand dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level since May 2020. Earlier today, New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI for August improved to 54.9, up from 53.5 in July and above the consensus of 52.5. This marked the highest level since July 2021 and manufacturing has now expanded for a fifth month running, with readings above the neutral 50.0 level. This is in contrast to global manufacturing, which has been struggling and slowed to 50.3 in August, down from 51.1 in July. Read next: British Pound (GBP) Has Decreased By 15 Percent So Far!| FXMAG.COM Earlier in the week, New Zealand posted a stronger-than-expected GDP report for Q2. The economy climbed 1.7%, reversing the 0.2% decline in the first quarter. The upswing in growth was driven by the government’s easing of Covid restrictions. The gain in GDP removed any fear of a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Now that New Zealand’s economy is flexing its muscles, what does that mean for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand? The central bank was almost spot on with its GDP forecast at the August meeting, predicting a gain of 1.8%. At the meeting, the Bank projected that the cash rate would peak at 4.1% in mid-2023. The GDP release is not expected to change that stance, with the Bank likely to raise rates by 50bp in the October and November meetings, which would bring the cash rate to an even 4.0%. Global Recession? With central banks raising interest rates in order to combat inflation, the World Bank has warned that the global economy may tip into a recession. The World Bank report noted that the three largest economies, the US, China and the eurozone were all slowing sharply, and even a “moderate hit to the global economy” could result in a global recession. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6017. Next, there is resistance at 0.6085 There is support at 0.5929 and 0.5861 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. New Zealand dollar extends losses - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The New Zealand dollar continues to rally. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5746, up 0.43%. RBNZ likely to deliver 0.50% hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds a meeting on Wednesday. The RBNZ has been aggressive with its rate tightening and is expected to raise rates by 0.50%, which would bring the cash rate to 3.50%, the highest since 2015. Governor Orr has hinted that the rate cycle could be coming to a close soon, but that is still more work to do to tame inflation. In Q2, CPI rose to 7.3%, up from 6.9% in Q1. The economy has performed well, with GDP rising 1.7% in Q2, along with a strong labour market and solid wage growth. This means that Orr can continue to raise rates above 4.0% in the knowledge that the economy is strong enough to handle additional rate hikes. September was a disaster for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged 6.5% and fell to its lowest level since March 2020. With the US dollar taking a breather, NZD/USD has rebounded this week, with gains of 2.70%. The volatility could well continue, and the New Zealand dollar is likely to face more headwinds in the short term. First, the risk-related currency has been hit hard as risk apprehension has soared. The war in Ukraine has escalated and the energy crisis facing Western Europe could tip many countries into recession this winter. China’s economy has been slowing down, which means less demand for New Zealand exports. Second, the Federal Reserve remains in aggressive mode and is committed to curbing inflation, even if that results in a recession. US Treasury yields have been on an upswing, propelling the US dollar higher against most of the major currencies. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5712. Below, there is support at 0.5639 There is resistance at 0.5829 and 0.5902 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZD/USD - All eyes on RBNZ - MarketPulseMarketPulse

NZD/USD started the day with gains but has reversed directions. The New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5707, down 0.52%. RBNZ raises rates by 0.50% As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a 0.50% hike, bringing the benchmark to 3.50%, its highest level since 2015. The RBNZ has now hiked rates at eight consecutive meetings and even discussed a super-size 0.75% increase at today’s meeting. The RBNZ has been aggressive with its rate-tightening cycle, and there’s likely more to come. The rate statement noted that “core consumer inflation is too high” and the labour market remains tight, a signal that the central bank will continue to tighten until inflation has peaked. This means that the November meeting will likely bring a rate hike of 0.50% or 0.25%, depending on economic data and the inflation picture. Inflation hit 7.3% in Q2, up from 6.9 in Q1. One of the dangers of a steep rate-tightening cycle is choking off economic growth and Moody’s rating agency said after today’s rate hike that a soft land was “increasingly unlikely”. The RBNZ might disagree, pointing to a 1.7% gain in GDP in Q2 and a robust labour market. The economy has proven strong enough to bear sharp rate hikes and Governor Orr is looking for a peak in inflation before easing up on rates. September was a disaster for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged a staggering 8.5% and fell to its lowest level since March 2020. NZD/USD has rebounded 2.0% in October, but the currency faces significant headwinds. The escalating conflict in Ukraine, which has seen President Putin annex 15% of Ukrainian territory, and a hawkish Federal Reserve are likely to continue weighing on the New Zealand dollar in the short term. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5712. Below, there is support at 0.5639 There is resistance at 0.5829 and 0.5902 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

NZD/USD was up sharply earlier in the day but has pared most of those gains. In the North American session, the New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5663, up 0.49%. New Zealand inflation higher than expected New Zealand inflation jumped 2.2% MoM in the third quarter, higher than the estimate of 1.6%. On an annualized basis, inflation climbed 7.2% in Q3, down from 7.3% in Q2 but well above the consensus of 6.6%. Inflation remains stubbornly high and is running strong across the economy. Core inflation is not showing any signs of easing, despite the central bank’s sharp rise in interest rates, with most core inflation measures topping 6%. Domestic demand is holding up, driven by a robust labour market and firm consumer spending. Read next: JP Morgan Net Income Over $9B | Kanye West Is Buying Parler| FXMAG.COM With no indication that inflation is peaking, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to continue raising rates, perhaps as high as 5.0%, until inflation is finally brought under control. The cash rate is currently at 3.5%, and a 0.75% hike at the November meeting is a strong possibility. It will be difficult for the central bank to guide the economy to a soft landing if it continues to deliver oversize hikes, but so far the economy has shown strong resilience despite the Bank’s sharp tightening. The outlook for the New Zealand dollar does not look promising. September was a disaster for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged a staggering 8.5%. Last week, NZD/USD slipped to 0.5510, its lowest level since March 2020. The risk-sensitive currency faces significant headwinds. The escalating conflict in Ukraine, which has seen President Putin annex 15% of Ukrainian territory, a likely energy crisis in Europe this winter and a hawkish Federal Reserve are likely to continue weighing on the New Zealand dollar in the short term. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.5657. Next, there is resistance at 0.5754 There is support at 0.5584 and 0.5487 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. New Zealand dollar extends rally - MarketPulseMarketPulse

NZD/USD continues to gain ground and is higher for a third straight day. In the North American session, the New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5865, up 0.60%. Business confidence drops The ANZ Business Outlook Survey for October, released yesterday, painted a grim picture of the health of the New Zealand economy. Business confidence fell to -42.7, down from -36.7 in September. The last time that business confidence was in positive territory was in May 2021, meaning that the lack of any optimism by businesses is nothing new. What does give cause for worry is the rise in inflation expectations, which rose to 6.13%, up slightly from 5.98% in September. The uptick in inflation expectations is clearly linked to the rise in inflation for Q3, which came in at 7.2% YoY in Q3, after a 7.3% gain in Q2. This was higher than the consensus of 6.6%. On a quarterly basis, CPI jumped 2.2%, up from 1.7% and much higher than the consensus of 1.6%. This nasty surprise means that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely respond with an oversize hike of 0.75% at the November 23rd meeting. The cash rate is currently at 3.5% and the hot inflation report has analysts projecting that the cash rate won’t peak until 5.0% or even higher in early 2023. It’s difficult to see how such a steep rate-tightening cycle will not trigger a recession, but the Reserve Bank appears to have little choice but to remain aggressive, given that the Bank is further behind inflation than it had expected. What is especially troubling about inflation is that it remains broad-based and core inflation continues to move higher. In the US, third-quarter GDP roared back at 2.6%, following two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which technically met the definition of a recession and garnered lots of headlines. This was higher than the 2.4% consensus and indicates that the economy is in good shape. What is less encouraging is that consumer spending has slowed, with personal consumption rising by 1.4%, down from 2.0% in Q2. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.5835. Next, there is resistance at 0.5912 There is support at 0.5774 and 0.5616 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. New Zealand dollar extends rally - MarketPulseMarketPulse

NZD/USD is sharply higher today. In the European session, the New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5883, up 0.71%. New Zealand employment data shines New Zealand posted a strong employment report for the third quarter, indicative of a robust labour market. Employment rose 1.3% QoQ, up from 0.0% in Q2 and above the consensus of 0.5%. The unemployment rate remained at 3.3%, just shy of the consensus of 3.2%. As wage inflation remained unchanged at 3.8% YoY, above the estimate of 3.4%. The labour market continues to suffer from staff shortages and capacity limits, which has contributed to spiralling inflation. This report will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of New  Zealand to continue to raise rates. The RBNZ has raised the cash rate to 3.50%, its highest since 2015. Still, the steep tightening has failed to curb inflation, and the central bank is likely to respond with a 75-basis point hike later this month, after five straight hikes of 50 basis points. Inflation in Q3 came in at 7.2%, and the RBNZ finds itself much further behind inflation than it had anticipated. The hot inflation report has raised expectations that the central bank will raise rates to a peak of  5.0% or even higher in early 2023. This leaves the RBNZ with little choice but to continue with oversize rate hikes, despite the spectre that further oversize rate hikes will tip the economy into a recession. The spotlight is on the Federal Reserve, which winds up its 2-day policy meeting later today. This would bring the benchmark rate to 4.0%. The question on the minds of investors is what happens next? The final meeting of the year is on December 14th and hopes that the Fed will downshift their tightening pace at that meeting have faded, as inflation has been stickier than the Fed expected. The markets will be listening closely to Fed Chair Powell’s comments today, hopeful for some insights into what the Fed has planned in the next few months. NZD/USD Technical There is resistance at 0.5906 and 0.5999 There is support at 0.5782 and 0.5689   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZ dollar jumps on solid jobs report - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower today. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5761, down 0.95%.   Fed raises rates 0.75%, says more to come   It was a roller-coaster day for the financial markets on Wednesday, courtesy of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. There were no surprised faces after the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points, as the move had been well-telegraphed by the Fed. Equity markets initially rose, but then took a tumble after Powell delivered a hawkish message in his post-meeting comments. Powell stated that there was no indication that inflation had peaked and that it was “premature” to talk about a pause in rate hikes.   At the same time, Powell signalled that the Fed would slow the pace of tightening in December, which is what investors wanted to hear. Inflation remains the Fed’s top priority, and the battle to curb inflation is far from over. Powell’s hawkish message to the markets sent the US dollar higher against all the major currencies, with risk currencies like the New Zealand dollar taking a tumble, as the kiwi has fallen to a 2-week low.   In New Zealand, the semi-annual financial stability report, released on Wednesday found that the country’s financial system remains resilient, but there were plenty of ‘buts’ that followed. The report noted that households and businesses were being hit hard by rising interest rates and it expected the sharp drop in house prices to continue. The report warned that the global economic outlook was uncertain and a downturn in any of New Zealand’s trading partners could lead to lower demand for exports, which would have a negative impact on the economy.   NZD/USD Technical   There is resistance at 0.5906 and 0.5999 There is support at 0.5782 and 0.5689       This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZD dives as Fed pledges more tightening - MarketPulseMarketPulse

AUDUSD longs at support at 6395/6385 worked on the strong bounce to 6463, just below the 6370 target. The pair is still trying to build a counter trend move. The problem with counter trend moves is that they are never smooth. The bears still think they have control & keep trying to push lower so we keep seeing deep 150 pip moves lower before a strong recovery. NZDUSD longs at first support at 5790/70 finally work as we bounce off the inverse head & shoulders neck line at 5790/70 & shot higher to my target of 5890/5910 for an quick 100 pips profit. However in this tough counter trend move, the gains were not sustained & the pair collapsed swiftly to 5823. EURUSD longs at 9880/70 & EURCAD shorts at 1.3500/1.3480 were 2 of the scalps that worked yesterday for a quick 50 pips profit in each pair. EURUSD struggling to push higher in the counter trend recovery. 2 steps forward & 1 huge step back - this has been the trend for 5 weeks. USDCAD scalping resistance at 1.3680/1.3700 & support at strong support at 1.3520/00 has been a great strategy for a week. Keep scalping while we wait for a breakout. EURCAD shorts at first resistance at 1.3490/1.3510 worked perfectly with a high for the day exactly here. A 50 pips profit offered so far. **Dollar pairs will obviously be influenced by today's Fed rate decision.** Today's Analysis. AUDUSD collapsed to retest support at 6395/6385 & made a low at 6375 so obviously this remains the important levels for today. A bounce again targets 6435/45 , perhaps as far as 6465/6470. Further gains test last week's high at 6510/20. Longs at 6395/6385 stop below 6360. A break lower targets 6330 & 6280/70. NZDUSD first support again at the head & shoulders neck line at 5790/70 of course. Longs need stops below 5750. Our longs target 5845/55 & 5890/5910. A break higher can reach 5980. EURUSD support at 9880/70 is key to direction again today. Longs worked perfectly yesterday targeting 9915/25 & reaching 9950. Above 9955 today signals further gains towards resistance at 9985/95. Longs at 9880/70 need stops below 9850 (a low for the day yesterday at 9851 so we are just holding the position). Further losses can target support at 9810/9790. USDCAD holding below 1.3600 risks a slide to 1.3570/60 & perhaps as far as strong support at 1.3520/00. Longs need stops below 1.3480. A break lower is a sell signal. Holding above 1.3630 can retest resistance at 1.3680/1.3700. Shorts need stops above 1.3720. A break higher is a buy signal. EURCAD shorts at 1.3500/1.3480 work on the slide to 1.3450 & we could target support at 1.3390/70. Longs need stops below 1.3350. Longs at support at 1.3390/70 can target 1.3450, perhaps as far as first resistance at 1.3490/1.3510. Shorts need stops above 1.3530.

The New Zealand dollar is steady today, after ending the week with huge gains. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5934 in the North American session. US dollar slides after NFP The US dollar was broadly lower on Friday, after the nonfarm payroll report sent mixed signals about the strength of the labor market. The October reading of 261,000 was stronger than the consensus of 200,000, but it marked the smallest gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, up from 3.5%, while wage growth rose to 5.5% YoY, up from 5.2%. The latter release is likely to keep the Fed concerned about inflationary pressures. The mixed numbers left investors in a dovish mood and the US dollar paid the price. NZD/USD climbed a remarkable 2.7%, as investors gave a strong thumbs-up to risk currencies like the New Zealand dollar. The job data has led to the markets raising the likelihood of a 50 basis points hike in December – the CME’s Fed Watch has pegged a 50 bp increase at 56% and a 75 bp move at 34%. Still, with the Federal Reserve expected to raise rates to 5% or even higher next year, I would not be surprised to see the US dollar quickly recover from Friday’s tumble. Investors were looking for anything to send the equity markets higher, and the mixed NFP report was their excuse, even though US job creation was stronger than expected. New Zealand will release Inflation Expectations on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be watching carefully, as it continues its titanic battle with inflation. Last week’s employment numbers indicated that the labour market remains tight – unemployment is very low and wage growth is moving higher. This makes the RBNZ’s battle with inflation will continue and we can expect another oversized rate hike at the November 23rd meeting – perhaps as high as 75 bp. The risk of a wage-price spiral is a key concern for policy makers, and if the upcoming Inflation Expectations accelerates, it would be a worrisome signal that inflation is still on the upswing. NZD/USD Technical There is resistance at 0.5906 and 0.5999 There is support at 0.5782 and 0.5689 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. New Zealand dollar flies after US NFP - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The New Zealand dollar has edged lower today. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5932, down 0.15%. NZ Inflation Expectations climb New Zealand continues to grapple with high inflation and this has led to a rise in inflation expectations as well. For Q4, inflation expectations stand at 3.62%, up from the Q3 reading of 3.07%. With no new inflation data prior to the November 23rd meeting, the inflation expectations release could play a key role in determining the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next rate move. Inflation ticked lower to 7.2% in Q3, down from 7.3% in the second quarter. Still, one inflation report does not reflect a trend, and it’s too early to say if inflation has peaked. What is clear is that inflation remains more than three times the RBNZ’s target of 2%, and a rise in inflation expectations is another signal that the fight against inflation is far from over. Governor Orr, who was just given another 5-year term at the helm of the central bank, has his hands full as he tries to guide the economy to a soft landing and avoid a recession. The RBNZ began its tightening cycle ahead of the other major central banks and has hiked rates to 3.50%. The aggressive rate policy hasn’t brought down inflation, but it has hurt consumers and businesses who are struggling with the double-whammy of red-hot inflation and rising interest rates. The financial markets are in caution mode today, as investors await the US midterm results.  The Republicans are expected to retake the House and possibly the Senate. Unless the Democrats pull a last-minute rabbit/donkey out of their hat, we are in for a deadlock in Washington, which will tie Biden’s hands for the next two years. With the US economy possibly headed for a recession, gridlock in Washington could unnerve investors and weigh on the equity markets, and the US dollar could be the big winner. NZD/USD Technical There is resistance at 0.6001 and 0.6095 There is support at 0.5871 and 0.5800   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZD dips as inflation expectations rise - MarketPulseMarketPulse

We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike by 50bp next week and signal a peak rate around 5.0%. The ongoing downturn in the housing market and worsening external conditions argue against a larger, 75bp move. We are not fully convinced the RBNZ will ultimately deliver all its projected hikes, but a dovish pivot is unlikely on the cards at this stage   Source: Shutterstock More tightening required As markets attempt to guess the timing of a dovish pivot by the Fed, another hawkish standout among developed central banks, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, will announce monetary policy next week. At the October meeting, the RBNZ hiked rates by 50bp to 3.50%, and claimed that “monetary conditions needed to continue to tighten” until the Monetary Policy Committee is “confident there is sufficient restraint on spending to bring inflation back within its 1-3% per annum target range”.  In our view, another 50bp increase looks more likely Since the October meeting, domestic data for the third quarter have been released, and unmistakably argued in favour of additional tightening. Inflation (7.2% year-on-year) proved much more resilient than forecasted, unemployment remained low (3.3%) and wage growth accelerated (2.6% quarter-on-quarter). This has led markets to consider a more aggressive 75bp hike in November as an option: currently, the OIS curve embeds 63bp of tightening.  In our view, another 50bp increase looks more likely, especially when considering the ongoing correction in the housing market (more details below) and a challenging external environment: dairy prices, global demand, the Chinese economic outlook have all deteriorated lately.  Forward-looking message will be crucial A 50bp hike may be received as a slightly dovish surprise by markets, but we believe that a greater focus will be placed on the forward-looking policy message, in particular: a) any hints in the rate projections that we are close to the peak in rates; and b) other economic projections such as on inflation and house prices.  On point a): we expect a reiteration that monetary conditions need to be tightened further to bring down inflation. There should be a certain degree of acknowledgement that global and domestic conditions have started to deteriorate, but we doubt there is appetite within the MPC to deliver a dovish signal before having seen fourth quarter inflation and employment data.   RBNZ current rate projections are unrealistic Source: RBNZ   The trade-off the RBNZ is facing is not uncommon in the central bank world: signalling much more tightening to cap inflation expectations against delivering a more moderate and realistic rate path. At this stage, we feel the RBNZ may want to risk sacrificing a bit of credibility further down the road (should they underdeliver on hikes) for the sake of fighting inflation. If anything, the incentive to signal less tightening could be to keep mortgage rates capped, but they have not signalled excessive concerns on the housing market for now.   Our estimate is that the rate projections will largely align with market expectations for the RBNZ and the Fed, so showing a peak rate at around 5.00% (90bp higher than the 4.10% shown in the August forecasts). There is also a higher probability some rate cuts (possibly from late 2023) will be introduced in the projections.     Whether the RBNZ will effectively bring rates to 5.0%+ is another question. We are not fully convinced, as an expected acceleration in the house price contraction and further worsening of external conditions in the months ahead may force a dovish turn in early 2023 (next meetings are in February and April).  Housing market troubles to continue New Zealand’s house price index shows a -4.5% quarterly decline for price in October. The magnitude of this market downturn has now exceeded the worst quarter during the Global Financial Crisis period (-4.4% in August 2008). This is contributed by the rapid rise in mortgage rates, and the more stringent 40% deposit requirement.   We expect further deterioration to the housing outlook as lending activity continues to fall In RBNZ’s August statement, their projection shows a steeper and quicker decline of 15% from December 2021 to the trough, which is worse than the previous forecast in May. We expect further deterioration to the housing outlook as lending activity continues to fall and more borrowers face higher rates when re-mortgaging.   New Mortgage lending by borrower type (YoY%) Source: RBNZ   The supply side story is a bit better. Residential construction had remained strong and have finally past its peak. The decline in new dwelling consent is led by rising construction costs and limited capacity from a filled pipeline. However, due to supportive schemes like the KiwiBuild caps, this slowdown is much shallower than the one during and after the GFC.    Ultimately, current projections for the housing market are based upon the assumption that rate is peaking at 4.10% in April 2023. This would imply that the RBNZ only has 60bp worth of hikes to deliver in its tightening cycle – which looks quite unrealistic. If indeed the new projections show a peak rate around 5.0%+, then we suspect they will also need to display a steeper/longer downturn in the housing market. The speed of the house price correction will be crucial both for the pace of further hikes and for the timing/pace of rate cuts next year.   Market impact: NZD still mostly driven by external factors We don’t expect the impact on NZD to prove long-lived Given that markets are pricing in approximately a 50% probability of a 75bp hike, a 50bp may come as a dovish surprise. However, if this is accompanied by a hawkish rate path projection – i.e. peak rate around 5.0% – the overall message should remain quite hawkish. So we think the Kiwi dollar could rise after the announcement, even though we don’t expect the impact to prove long-lived, as external factors should continue to prevail.     We have recently revised our NZD/USD forecast profile (more details in our 2023 FX Outlook), and see the pair capped in 4Q22 and 1Q23 (we target 0.60), before a gradual rebound throughout 2023 (0.64 in 4Q23). Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

US Wall Street’s shortened trading week will be jam-packed with the FOMC minutes, more Fed speak, the flash PMIs and the final look at the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations.   One of the key events of the trading week will be the Fed’s minutes from the November policy meeting.  Financial markets will want to know if the Fed still believes that the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action. The Fed is expected to downshift to a half-point rate-hiking pace in December, but that rate-hiking cycle could last longer if pricing pressures become more entrenched.   US stock and bond markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and will close early on Friday.  Traders will pay close attention to Black Friday shopping data, which will give the latest pulse on the health of the US consumer.   EU  The highlight next week may well be the monetary policy accounts, although, with a steady stream of central bank commentary since the last meeting and a raft of economic data, it’s hard to say just how impactful they’ll ultimately be. The flash PMIs may tell a more interesting story of an economy heading for recession, while appearances from various policymakers – including President Christine Lagarde on Sunday – could fill in any gaps that haven’t already been filled. UK  It’s hard to get too excited about next week’s PMI data and central bank speak following the assessment from the OBR on the economic outlook, taking into consideration the latest fiscal squeeze. The UK is heading for its largest squeeze on living standards in six decades – a 7.1% decline – as interest rates continue to increase, taxes rise and the cost-of-living crisis intensifies.  The only question that remains is how soon the BoE can pause its tightening among all of these other pressures. It alluded to the fact that markets are pricing in too much at the last meeting but at this moment, another 150 basis points are still priced in. Russia Another quiet week on the economic data side, with PPI numbers the only notable releases. The focus remains on its invasion of Ukraine and how it handles recent losses in Kherson. South Africa Next week is action-packed, with inflation data being released on Wednesday ahead of the latest SARB rate decision a day later. While the headline CPI is expected to ease slightly to 7.4%, from 7.5%, core is seen rising from 4.7% to 4.9%, meaning both remain far too high. The SARB inflation target is 3-6%.  That is expected to push the SARB to hike interest rates again next week by 75 basis points, taking the repo rate to 7%.  Turkey The CBRT is expected to cut interest rates by another 150 basis points next week despite soaring inflation and a desperately weak currency. The latter has been managed with capital controls over the last couple of years and the new reserve-management system appears to be stabilizing it at record lows despite continued easing. The hope for President Erdogan is this can be carefully managed into next year’s election to at least give the impression of stability amid a potential deceleration in official inflation.  Switzerland No significant economic data or releases next week. The central bank continues to drive home the message that FX intervention could occur on either side. An inter-meeting rate hike can also not be ruled out. China The focus stays on China’s Covid situation. China’s Covid cases are near record highs and that is threatening to delay any looser rules. Expectations are now for China to reopen sometime after March. Investors widely expect Chinese commercial banks to keep both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.65% and 4.30% respectively. The PBOC might be delaying rate cuts until next quarter as they are concerned about yuan weakness.   India It is expected to be a quiet week for India.   Australia & New Zealand This week is mostly about New Zealand as the RBNZ is expected to deliver its sixth straight half-point rate hike. Hot inflation and wage data are expected to prevent the central bank from downshifting to a slower pace of tightening. Investors hoping for the bank to pause tightening in February might be surprised if the policymakers are worried that inflation isn’t falling quickly enough.    The lone release for Australia will be the preliminary PMI readings.  Last month the service sector fell into contraction territory while manufacturing activity continues to soften.   Japan A busy week filled with Japanese data, including preliminary PMI data for the services and manufacturing sectors in November and core CPI data for the Tokyo region in November. Inflation in Japan has hit a four-decade high and that is complicating what the BOJ wants to do.  Some economists are expecting Tokyo’s core inflation to slow for the first time since January but that is hardly the overall consensus.   Singapore The October inflation report is expected to show pricing pressures eased from 7.5% to 7.0%.  The final Q3 Q/Q GDP reading is expected to be revised a tick lower to 1.4%. Economic Calendar Saturday, Nov. 19 Economic Events The APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting concludes Fed’s Bostic speaks at the Southern Economic Association annual meeting in Florida Sunday, Nov. 20 Events World Cup begins with Qatar hosting Ecuador ECBs Lagarde participates in formal dinner of European Roundtable for Industry Monday, Nov. 21 Economic Data/Events US Chicago Fed national activity index China loan prime rates Germany producer prices New Zealand credit card spending Sweden home prices, industry capacity utilization Taiwan export orders, current account balance Thailand GDP The Bank of Japan announces the outright purchase amount of Japanese government securities Ukraine President Zelenskiy speaks at NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s annual session ECB’s Holzmann and Simkus speak at the Conference on European Economic Integration hosted by Austria’s central bank Bank of Portugal Governor Centeno speaks at the CNN Portugal Summit Bundesbank President Nagel speaks at an evening event of the ICFW Frankfurt business journalists’ club Tuesday, Nov. 22 Economic Data/Events US Richmond Fed manufacturing index Canada retail sales Euro area consumer confidence Mexico retail sales, Banamex survey of economists New Zealand trade South Africa leading indicator Turkey consumer confidence South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is on a state visit to the UK The OECD releases its latest Economic Outlook German Chancellor Scholz speaks at the SZ-Wirtschaftsgipfel conference in Berlin ECB’s Holzmann speaks at the presentation of the Austrian National Bank’s financial stability report Fed’s Mester gives speech on wages and inflation Fed’s Bullard participates in a policy panel at the Central Bank of Chile’s annual conference RBA’s Lowe speaks at the annual CEDA dinner Wednesday, Nov. 23 Economic Data/Events FOMC minutes of November meeting US MBA mortgage applications, durable goods, initial jobless claims, preliminary PMIs, University of Michigan sentiment, new home sales European Flash PMIs: France, Germany, UK New Zealand central bank (RBNZ) rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 75bps to 4.25% Australia PMIs Mexico international reserves Russia industrial production, monthly PPI, weekly CPI Singapore CPI, GDP South Africa CPI Thailand trade balance EIA crude oil inventory report German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addresses the Bundestag on the country’s 2023 budget ECB’s de Guindos speaks at the Encuentro del Sector Financiero in Madrid Thursday, Nov. 24 Economic Data/Events US stocks and bond markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday Canada small business optimism France business, manufacturing confidence Germany IFO business climate Japan PMIs, department store sales, leading index, machine tool orders Russia gold and foreign-exchange reserves Sweden central bank (Riksbank) rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 75bps to 2.50% Turkey central bank (CBRT) rate decision: Expected to cut rates by 150bp to 9.00% South Africa central bank (SARB) rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 75bps to 7.00% Turkey real sector confidence South Africa PPI Mexico publishes monetary policy minutes ECB publishes accounts of its October policy meeting EU energy ministers hold an emergency meeting in Brussels ECB’s Schnabel speaks at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference Friday, Nov. 25 Economic Data/Events US stock and bond markets close early Retailers hope for a strong Black Friday performance France Consumer confidence Spain PPI Sweden PPI Germany GDP Japan Tokyo CPI, PPI services Mexico GDP, current account balance New Zealand consumer confidence index, retail sales ex-inflation Singapore industrial production Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts Sovereign Rating Updates Switzerland (Moody’s) Turkey (Moody’s) Poland (DBRS) This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Week Ahead - Central banks remain hawkish - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold its last meeting of 2022 on Wednesday. Unlike most of the leading central banks in the world, members of the RBNZ meet only seven times a year. That's why each meeting attracts the attention of NZD/USD traders. And the November meeting will not be an exception. According to most experts' forecasts, the New Zealand central bank will raise the interest rate by 75 basis points, thus bringing it to 4.25%. Take note that the RBNZ raised the OCR rate by 50 points at the October meeting, as well as at the previous four meetings. However, at the final press conference, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr admitted that they considered delivering a 75 bps hike. And yet the RBNZ was hesitant to accelerate the pace of monetary tightening, although it admitted that inflation was unacceptably high, so "there's still a lot of work to be done." As it turned out a little later, inflation is not only at a high level, but has no intention of slowing down.     The RBNZ's previous meeting was held on October 5, and the latest data on CPI growth in New Zealand was published on October 18. To the central bank's disappointment, the inflation rate soared again in the third quarter, significantly exceeding the forecasted levels. The consumer price index rose 2.2% in quarterly terms (against a forecast of 1.5%) and jumped to 7.2% year-over-year, against a forecast of a slowdown to 6.5%. In addition, the latest monetary conditions survey conducted by the central bank was published in early November. It turned out that New Zealand's inflation expectations rose across the time curve in the fourth quarter of 2022. Specifically, average one-year inflation expectations jumped to 5.1% from 4.9% seen in the third quarter of this year. Read next: Euro lost about a percent yesterday! Euro to US dollar - forecast - November 22nd| FXMAG.COM Given this disposition, it is possible to assume that the RBNZ members will consider the 75 bps hike tomorrow. Moreover, according to most currency strategists of big banks, this scenario is currently the basic one. Its realization will support the kiwi, because the hawkish mood has intensified even after the inflation report. But if the central bank keeps the moderate pace of rate hikes (i.e. increases it by 50 points to 4.0%), the pair will be under a lot of pressure. However, all indirect signs indicate that the RBNZ will decide to be more aggressive in curbing inflation. In that case, the NZD might get some short-term support against the greenback. However, upward surges in the NZD/USD pair should be used as a reason to open short positions. Moreover, the November FOMC meeting minutes will be released on the same day (i.e., November 23). This document can provoke a dollar rally, and the pair will not be an exception here. Even in case the OCR rate increases by 75 points. Since November 14, that is, since last Monday, the pair has been trading in a wide-range 100-point flat, alternately going from the limits of the 0.6080-0.6190 range. The bears are not able to find a foothold within the 60s figure. The bulls are not able to test the 62nd figure. At the end of tomorrow the scales will tip in one direction or the other. And in my opinion, the US dollar is in a better position here. Traders have already played back the news that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening - now they are concentrating on the scale of tightening the monetary policy. And this issue is currently debatable. In this context, the Fed's minutes, which will be published on Wednesday, is especially important. All the information of this document will be considered through the prism of the latest CPI growth report. The hawkish sentiment of most Committee members, the message that the final interest rate level will be higher (than previously expected) and the willingness to keep rates high even if inflation slows down - all these signals will greatly strengthen the dollar's position. At the same time, the RBNZ's 75 bps hike in the OCR rate has already been partly factored into current prices. The very fact of the realization of the 75-point scenario is likely to have a short-term impact on the pair. Thus, the upward price surges of the NZD/USD should be used as a reason to open short positions. The first bearish target is 0.6020 (the Tenkan-sen line on the one-day chart). The main target is slightly below, at 0.5950. At this price point the average Bollinger Bands line coincides with the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the same chart. Relevance up to 00:00 2022-11-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/327722

The New Zealand dollar continues to gain ground this week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6267, up 0.35%. New Zealand will release retail sales for Q3 later in the day. The markets are expecting a small gain of 0.5%, which would be a turnaround from a disappointing -2.2% in Q2. Consumers continue to struggle with high inflation and rising interest rates, and after back-to-back declines, a gain in retail sales would be welcome news. Read next: G7 work on a Russian oil price cap, gold has gained as dovish Fed signals spread through the market| FXMAG.COM RBNZ delivers record hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a huge 75-bp hike on Wednesday, which raised the cash rate to 4.25%. The move had been priced in by the markets, but the New Zealand dollar jumped 1.5%, thanks to the oversize move and a broadly-lower US dollar. The cash rate is the highest among major central banks, but there’s more to come. The RBNZ has projected a terminal rate of 5.5% in 2023, which means more rate hikes in 2023. Inflation has been stickier than the RBNZ anticipated, and the bank’s Monetary Policy Statement was decidedly hawkish, noting that “core consumer price inflation is too high” and “near-term inflation expectations have risen.” The statement said that inflation is expected to accelerate to 7.5% in Q4 and would not fall to the midpoint of the 1%-3% target until 2025. The RBNZ is ready for a long fight with inflation, but it remains to be seen if the bank can guide the economy to a soft landing. The Fed minutes reiterated that lower rates are on the way, which we’ve been hearing from a stream of Federal members over the past two weeks. The minutes were vague as far as a timeline, noting that smaller rate increases would happen “soon”, as the Fed continues to evaluate the impact of the current policy on the economy. Members also voiced concern that inflation was yet to show any signs of peaking. Still, the markets viewed the minutes as dovish, which is weighing on the US dollar today. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6283. Above, there is resistance at 0.6361 There is support at 0.6217 and 0.6139 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZD/USD higher ahead of retail sales - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The New Zealand dollar has extended its gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6235, up 0.54%. Business Confidence slides New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence has been in a deep freeze for months, but things got even uglier in November, with a reading of -57.1. This followed the -42.7 reading in October and missed the consensus of -39.5. The plunge in business optimism comes despite an improvement in the economy and the easing of Covid restrictions. It has been much the same story with consumer confidence, which remains weak. The double-barreled punch of high inflation and rising interest rates has dampened the moods of consumers and businesses, and with inflation running at a 7.2% clip, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will have little choice but to continue raising rates into 2023. Read next: On Friday greenback and Loonie may be fluctuating| FXMAG.COM The Federal Reserve remains in the spotlight, and Fed Chair Powell will be under close scrutiny when he delivers a speech today at the Brookings Institute in Washington. The fact that Powell’s remarks are the center of attention is an indication of just how dependent market movement has become on rate policy. Powell is expected to discuss inflation, which has been losing steam, but the Fed is still not ready to say inflation has peaked. Inflation may have fallen to 7.7%, but as Fed member John Williams warned earlier this week, inflation remains “far too high”. Investors are gearing for the tightening cycle to continue into 2023, but there’s uncertainty, likely shared by Fed members, as to when the rate hikes will end. The most likely scenario is that the Fed will raise rates to about 5%, but inflation, which has been stickier than the Fed expected, will have to cooperate in order for the Fed to wind up the current tightening cycle. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6209. Above, there is resistance at 0.6331 There is support at 0.6130 and 0.6008   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZD rises despite soft bus. confidence - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The New Zealand dollar is slightly higher on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6376, up 0.34%. New Zealand manufacturing in trouble New Zealand’s manufacturing sector is showing signs of strain, as high costs and hiring challenges in a tight labour market remain key problems. Manufacturing PMI contracted in October, for the first time since August 2021, dropping from 51.7 to 49.3. We’ll get a look at the November report next week. Manufacturing Sales slipped 4.9% in Q2, and third-quarter data will be released on Friday. Another decline is expected, with a consensus of -2.4%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand remains in hawkish mode and hiked by 75 bp at its last meeting, bringing the cash rate to 4.25%. The RBNZ considered a full-point increase, which is indicative of how seriously policy makers view the threat of high inflation, which has hit 7.2%. Read next: Amazon, Google, Microsoft And Oracle Received A Cloud Deal From The Pentagon| FXMAG.COM The RBNZ now has a long break until the next meeting on February 22nd, which will give it plenty of time to gauge the effect of its steep tightening on the domestic economy. The Federal Reserve will hold two more meetings before then – one on December 14th and one on February 10th. The markets have priced in a 50-bp increase at next week’s meeting, which takes place just a day after the November inflation report. With the Fed’s focus on inflation, recent CPI reports have been major market movers for the US dollar, and I expect the same from next week’s report. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on Friday’s inflation data out of the US – the Producers Price Index and UoM inflation expectations. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD faces resistance at 0.6497 and 0.6585 There is support at 0.6327 and 0.6239   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZD/USD extends gains ahead of Mfg. Sales - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Federal Reserve expected to hike by 50 bp All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which winds up its policy meeting later today. Policy makers are expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at this final meeting of 2022, with an outside chance of a more aggressive 75 basis point hike. This year has set a record for tightening, but despite that, the Fed stills finds itself in an uphill battle to convince the markets that it remains in a hawkish mode. The dramatic inflation report on Tuesday was softer than expected at 7.1%, once again raising risk appetite and sending the US dollar sharply lower. Read next: The Australian Dollar Held Above $0.68, Today The Fed Will Make Its Last Decision Of The Year| FXMAG.COM Any drop in inflation is welcome news for the Fed, but let’s not forget that inflation is still more than three times the Fed target of 2%. The Fed has reiterated that it is committed to curbing inflation and has not given any indications of winding up the current tightening cycle, stating that it expects the terminal rate to be “somewhat higher” than anticipated in September. Despite this, speculation is growing that the Fed might deliver one more rate hike in February, perhaps by 25 bp, and then call it quits. New Zealand releases fourth-quarter GDP later today, and the markets are bracing for a weak gain of 0.8% q/q. This follows the 1.2% gain in Q3, as the economy was boosted by the booming tourist trade as the border reopened. The New Zealand dollar has recovered nicely, gaining about 400 points against the US dollar since October 1st. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be on a long break, as the next policy meeting is not until February 22nd. We could see some volatility from NZD/USD in today’s North American session, with the Fed rate announcement and the New  Zealand GDP release. NZD/USD Technical 0.6472 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 0.6591 There is support at 0.6388 and 0.6311 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZD/USD awaits Fed, GDP - MarketPulseMarketPulse