usd/chf

  • Franc posts 11th straight daily decline versus the dollar
  • US consumer confidence falls to 4-month low
  • 10-year Treasury yield rises 1.2 bps to 4.546%

The relief rally was not meant to be for risky assets, but that didn’t seem to matter for USD/CHF.  The US dollar is rallying after consumer confidence fell to 4-month low, new home sales had their largest drop in almost a year, while S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller reported home prices rose to a record high. The economy sure looks like it might break, and it could easily get a lot worse if the Fed needs to take rates much higher.  The dollar is higher on both safe-haven flows and fears the Fed might not be done.  

JPMorgan CEO Dimon warned that the Fed might not be done raising rates, highlighting that he is not sure the world is prepared for 7% along with stagflation.  The Dow is having its worst day since March, and it won’t take a lot for momentum selling to heat up.  A government shutdown seems likely as lawmakers are n

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support - 19.10.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support - 19.10.2021

Jing Ren Jing Ren 19.10.2021 12:07
The Australian dollar rallied after the RBA expected a return to growth in October’s meeting minutes. The pair has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone (0.7460) from the September sell-off. And the RSI is once again in the overbought area. Short-term buyers would be eager to take profit, driving the price lower in the process. 0.7380 is the first support and will test the bulls’ resolve. A bounce above the said resistance would trigger an extended rally. On the downside, a bearish breakout may cause a correction to 0.7320. USDCHF sees limited rebound The US dollar recoups some losses supported by recovering Treasury yields. The drop below the demand zone around 0.9230 has put the bulls under pressure. An oversold RSI has triggered the buy-the-dips mentality at the fresh support at 0.9200. The buy-side will need to clear the hurdle at 0.9310 to reclaim control of the direction. Otherwise, the latest rebound may be an opportunity for the bears to sell into strength. A new round of sell-off would send the pair towards the daily support at 0.9100. NAS 100 tests resistance The Nasdaq 100 rallies as investors seem to be feeling confident about the upcoming earnings. A rebound above the psychological level of 15000 suggests strong buying interest in keeping the rally intact in the medium-term. The RSI’s overbought situation has temporarily held the impetus back. A retracement is likely to attract bids in the vicinity of 15050. 15400 is a major resistance from the daily timeframe and its breach may resume the uptrend above 15700. Failing that, 14800 is a key floor on the downside.  
Romanian GDP Slows Beyond Expectations: Revised Forecast and Economic Outlook

EUR/USD Drops Below 1.07?!, GBP Weakens Against the EUR For The Third Consecutive Month, SNB Showing No Sign Of Tightening Monetary Policy

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.04.2022 10:17
Summary: The US Dollar continues to strengthen. The SNB shows no intention of tightening their monetary policy to fight inflation. GBP weakens amidst a slowing economy. EURO continues to weaken against the USD. Since the market opened today, the Euro has weakened by a further 0.15%, this continuing weakening comes as a result of strong U.S interest rates with little indication of the European Central Bank (ECB) attempting to play catch up. This interest rate differential between the United States and the Euro continues to favor the US Dollar. The likelihood of us seeing the EURO strengthen against the US Dollar will probably depend on the future decisions of the Federal Reserve. The market sentiment on this currency pair remains bearish. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump Euro (EUR) And British Pound (GBP). EUR Fails To Get Boost Post Macron Election Victory - Good Morning Forex!    GBP Weakens against most major currencies. As of the market open this morning market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. The GBP continues to weaken against the Euro for the third consecutive month. The weakening of the GBP comes in the middle of a sharp fall in the global stock markets, this is heavily impacting foreign exchange markets. In addition, the slowing of the UK economy is not helping the currency to recover. It is concerning that the GBP is weakening against most major currencies. EUR/GBP Price Chart CHF weakens against the Euro. Market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals as the Euro strengthens against the Swiss Franc. The inflation rate in Switzerland reached a 13 year high but the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is showing no indication of swaying from their loose monetary policy to fight against this inflation. EUR/CHF Price Chart USD/CHF The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bearish signals since the market opened this morning. The USD has been strengthening against the CHF, this comes as a result of the hawkish Fed amidst their fight against inflation at the same time the SNB is showing no intention of increasing interest rates due to the belief that this high inflation period is temporary. In addition, the SNB said it would limit the Swiss Franc’s currency appreciation after reaching a 7 year high against the Euro after the Russia-Ukraine war. USD/CHF Price Chart   Read next: Bitcoin Price Back on The Rise, Consumer Spending In The UK Falls In Light Of Inflation And The US Dollar Continues to Strengthen    Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, tradingeconomics.com  
Australian CPI Expected to Rise to 5.2%: Impact on AUD/USD and RBA's Rate Hike Dilemma

US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump The EUR, BoE Expected To Increase Interest Rates, SNB Remains Dovish, South African Rand (ZAR) Performance

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.04.2022 09:52
Summary: The US Dollar strengthens further. EUR/GBP investor sentiment has not changed regardless of the BoE’s expected announcement on interest rates. CHF weakens due to SNB dovish approach to monetary policy. A short look into the ZAR. The Euro has spent the past week trying to recover against the USD. Over the past week the Euro has been weakening against the USD. This comes from the continuous strengthening of the US Dollar, the hawkish Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) ended last week announcing they would push interest rates up for the 7th consecutive week in their fight against inflation. The Euro has been struggling to fight against the strengthening USD, the European Central Bank (ECB) has not tightened their monetary policy to fight inflation, because of the risk averse sentiment of investors in the current market, many are fleeing the Euro and turning to the stronger USD. However, since the market opened this morning, the EUR has slightly strengthened against the USD, whether or not this will continue is uncertain, the market sentiment is mixed for this currency pair. EUR/USD Price Chart Read next: Euro (EUR) Continues To Weaken Against The US Dollar (USD), Euro Under Pressure Amidst Russia’s Decision To Tighten Gas Supplies. GBP Strengthens Against the JPY.  GBP Weakens against the EURO during the past trading week. Since the market opened this morning, market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish, this means that investors are expecting the EUR to strengthen against the GBP. Over the past week, the overall trend is showing the EURO strengthening against the GBP, however, the rise of the EUR has not been smooth, the chart below shows the volatility this currency pair has felt this week. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to announce a rise in interest rates on Thursday in the fight against inflation, perhaps the GBP will start to see some strengthening against the EURO. EUR/GBP Price Chart Swiss National Bank As of the market open this morning the CHF has strengthened against the USD, however, the market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. Over the past week the USD has been strengthening consistently against the CHF. As the Fed continues their hawkish approach to the fight against inflation through tightening monetary policy, the US Dollar continues to trump most of its currency counterparts. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) believes this rise in inflation is only temporary and continues to stand by their loose monetary policy stance. USD/CHF Price Chart South African Rand (ZAR) weakens against the USD. The ZAR is the National Currency of South Africa and is used by Swaziland, Namibia and Lesotho, in general the ZAR tends to strengthen when investors are willing to take on more risk in developing countries' economies. Given the current economic pullback, the ZAR has been weakening against the current aggressively strengthening US Dollar. USD/ZAR Price Chart Read next: EUR/USD Drops Below 1.07?!, GBP Weakens Against the EUR For The Third Consecutive Month, SNB Showing No Sign Of Tightening Monetary Policy  Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com.
USD/CHF: US Dollar Went Up Thanks To Jerome Powell's Statement About Interest Rates, Which Is Not In Favor Of Gold

USD/CHF: US Dollar Went Up Thanks To Jerome Powell's Statement About Interest Rates, Which Is Not In Favor Of Gold

Jing Ren Jing Ren 29.08.2022 08:27
USDCHF keeps high ground The US dollar rallied after Powell reaffirmed that the Fed would raise rates as high as needed. A rally above the daily resistance at 0.9640 has flushed out short-term sellers. This could be the start of a bullish continuation after the pair went through a deep retracement of its April extension. As sentiment shifts to a more upbeat tone, a close above 0.9740 could attract momentum buyers and carry the greenback to July’s peak at 0.9870. 0.9570 is the closest support and 0.9500 is the bulls’ second line of defence. XAUUSD struggles for support Gold remains overshadowed by the prospect of higher interest rates. The price has been struggling to find buyers after it hit resistance at the psychological level of 1800, which was also a former demand zone on the daily chart. A short-lived bounce to 1765 met stiff selling pressure, suggesting that the bears have doubled down. 1739 is a support-turned-resistance after its breach left bullion vulnerable to a new round of sell-off. 1705 at the base of a breakout in late July would be the next level to see if there is enough long interest left. US 30 breaks lower Equities tumbled after the US Fed shattered hopes that policymakers might dial back the tightening. The Dow Jones 30 lost its momentum after hitting a four-month high at 34300. An initial drop below 33850 led some leveraged positions to close out. Then the selling intensified after the index lost ground at 32800. 31700 could be the next stop. An oversold RSI may cause a temporary bounce and 32900 has become a fresh supply zone where the bears could be expected to fade the next rebound.
USD/CHF - US Dollar Is Awaiting Jobs Market Data, While Swiss Inflation May Trigger SNB To Hike The Interest Rate, Boosting Swiss Franc In Consequence

USD/CHF - US Dollar Is Awaiting Jobs Market Data, While Swiss Inflation May Trigger SNB To Hike The Interest Rate, Boosting Swiss Franc In Consequence

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 31.08.2022 22:10
USD/CHF moved higher earlier in the day and briefly pushed above 0.9800 but has pared these gains. The Swiss franc is having trouble finding its footing, as USD/CHF has climbed 350 points in the past two weeks. Switzerland releases inflation and retail sales reports on Thursday. It has been a disappointing week so far. The KOF Economic Barometer declined for a fourth consecutive month in August. The index dropped to 86.5 (vs 90.5 in July), shy of the estimate of 89.0. Much of the August decline was related to weakness in consumer spending and manufacturing. ZEW Economic Expectations remained in deep freeze, with a reading of -56.3 in August (vs -57.2 in July). SNB eyes Swiss inflation Inflation in Switzerland remains much lower than levels in the eurozone or the UK, but the June reading of 3.4% marked its highest level since 1993. Another reading of 3.4% is expected for July. With inflation well above the Swiss National Bank’s target range of 0-2%, the open question is how uncomfortable the SNB is with high inflation. If July inflation is higher than expected, the SNB could respond by tightening policy in order to rein in inflation. In June, the SNB shocked the markets with a 0.75% basis point hike, the first increase in 15 years. Even with the massive hike, the benchmark rate remains in negative territory, at -0.25%. In the US, the ADP employment report showed a sharp decline in August, with a weak reading of 132 thousand (vs 270 thousand in July), well short of the market consensus of 288 thousand. The ADP release is generally not a reliable indicator for the nonfarm employment report, which will be released on Friday. Interestingly, the forecast for the NFP is also a sharp deceleration to 300 thousand, down from 528 thousand. If NFP is weaker than expected, it could raise speculation that the Fed will ease on tightening, which would weigh on the US dollar. Conversely, a strong NFP would allow the Fed to be aggressive, in the knowledge that the labour market is resilient, even if other US data is not as strong. USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.9720. Next, there is resistance at 0.9760 There is support at 0.9642 and 0.9524 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Swiss pares losses, CPI next - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Jing Ren Comments On USD/CHF, EURGBP And US 30 (Dow Jones)

Jing Ren Comments On USD/CHF, EURGBP And US 30 (Dow Jones)

Jing Ren Jing Ren 06.09.2022 08:07
USDCHF tests resistance The Swiss franc struggles as the Q2 GDP reading disappoints. The greenback has recouped all losses from its July sell-off and is testing the daily resistance at 0.9880. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling may limit the upward extension. As the RSI returns to the neutrality area, 0.9740 is the first support and 0.9660 the bulls’ second line of defence. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart shows improved sentiment and may attract more buying in case of a pullback. A bullish breakout would lead to the double top at 1.0050. EURGBP grinds key resistance Sterling finds support as Liz Truss is set to be Britain's next prime minister. As the pair came to July’s high at 0.8680, a bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the rally. Strong pressure has been building up following the indicator’s repeated overbought signals. 0.8570 is a key support to assess the underlying strength. Its breach would trigger a liquidation towards the origin of a previous breakout at 0.8500. However, a bounce could clear this year’s high at 0.8720, paving the way for a potential bullish run. US 30 struggles for support The Dow Jones 30 slips as the Fed’s hike agenda may find comfort in a robust labour market. A quick bounce came to a halt at 32000 which indicates that the pessimistic mood still prevails. A bounce may only sustain itself if the bulls manage to push through the supply zone around 32000. Otherwise, traders may continue to see rebounds as opportunities to sell into strength. 31100 is the immediate support and its breach could send the index to 30550 near July’s lows, at the risk of putting an end to the summer recovery.
Analysis Of Situation Of The US Dollar To Swiss Franc Pair (USD/CHF)

The US Dollar To The Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Pair Is Going Towards The Bulls

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 15.09.2022 10:53
USD/CHF climbs to a multi-day high and draws support from a combination of factors. A positive risk tone undermines the safe-haven CHF and acts as a tailwind for the pair. Bets for aggressive Fed rate hikes revive the USD demand and contribute to the uptick. The USD/CHF pair regains some positive traction on Thursday and touches a four-day high, though the uptick stalls just ahead of mid-0.9600s. Nevertheless, the pair manages to stick to modest intraday gains through the early European session and is currently placed around the 0.9625 area. Signs of stability in the equity markets undermine the safe-haven Swiss franc and act as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair. The US dollar, on the other hand, attracts fresh buying amid firming expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. This was seen as another factor lending some support to spot prices. Tuesday's stronger US CPI report fueled speculations that the Fed will hike interest rates at a faster pace to tame inflation. In fact, the implied odds for a full 1% lift-off at the September FOMC meeting currently stand at 30%. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continues to benefit the USD. That said, the lack of any follow-through buying warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the stronger US consumer inflation-inspired recovery from a nearly one-month low. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside and seems tilted in favour of bullish traders. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring Retail Sales figures, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Regional Manufacturing Indices, and Industrial Production data. This, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment should provide some impetus to the USD/CHF pair.
Credit Suisse case: Western Assets expects Swiss authorities to act if sentiment doesn't improve

Hold On Tight Swiss Franc (CHF) - Swiss National Bank Decides On Interest Rate This Week!

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 19.09.2022 23:22
The Swiss franc has started the week in negative territory. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9674, up o.31%. Swiss National Bank to continue tightening The Times They Are a Changin. This is nowhere more apparent than in Switzerland, where the SNB is poised to end the negative rate era on Thursday. The safety of the Swiss franc has allowed the SNB to offer negative rates to investors, who were only too happy to park their funds during times of uncertainty, of which they have been plenty. While the Swissie’s value as a reliable safe haven asset hasn’t changed, what has changed is a world of low inflation, particularly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Switzerland’s inflation is running at an annual clip of 3.5%, for which many central bankers would give their right arm. Still, inflation is on the rise and has become enough of an issue for the SNB that in June, it raised rates by 0.50%, bringing the benchmark rate to -0.25%. At the time, inflation was at 3.4%, its highest level since 1993. The rate hike hasn’t lowered inflation, which rose to 3.5% in August. The SNB is expected to strike again, with the markets having fully priced in a 75bp increase at the Thursday meeting, with a possibility of a massive full-point hike. Barring a huge surprise, this marks the end of the negative rate era, and I would expect the Swissie to gain ground if the SNB raises rates by 0.75% or 1.00%. The Federal Reserve meets a day earlier, on September 21st, and is also expected to deliver a 0.75% rate increase, with an outside chance of a 1.00% hike. The US economy has been performing fairly well, allowing the Federal Reserve to continue tightening policy as it grapples with high inflation. USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.9720. Next, there is resistance at 0.9760 There is support at 0.9642 and 0.9524 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. SNB expected to deliver 0.75% hike - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Analysis Of Situation Of The US Dollar To Swiss Franc Pair (USD/CHF)

How The USD/CHF Pair Move After The Fed And SNB Decision

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 12:31
The USD/CHF pair rallied right after the SNB Policy Rate publication. In the short term, the currency pair continued to move sideways after the FOMC, even though the FED increased the Federal Funds Rate from 2.50% to 3.25%. Now, the USD/CHF pair exploded after the Swiss National Bank increased the SNB Policy Rate from -0.25% to 0.50% as expected. Later, the BOE could bring more volatility into the markets. The Official Bank Rate is expected to be increased from 1.75% to 2.25%. Furthermore, the US Unemployment Claims are expected at 220K last week, while the Current Account and CB Leading Index could come in better compared to the previous reporting period. USD/CHF Bullish Momentum! From the technical point of view, USD/CHF registered a false breakdown with great separation below 0.9627, signaling strong upside pressure. As you can see on the H1 chart, the price registered an aggressive breakout above 0.9695 static resistance. It has found resistance above the weekly R2 (0.9780) which represented an upside obstacle. Now, it has slipped below this key level and under the warning line (wl1) of the ascending pitchfork. These are seen as resistance levels. USD/CHF Outlook! Coming back and stabilizing above the warning line (wl1) and above the R2 (0.9780) could signal an upside continuation. Personally, I want to see a strong consolidation above the R2 before going long. A new higher high could bring long opportunities.         Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293824
Analysis Of USD/CHF Pair: The Swiss Currency Pair Rebounds

Can We Expect A Return After The USD/CHF Pair Increases?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 08:44
The USD/CHF pair rallied in the short term and now it stands at 0.9848 right below the 0.9850 key resistance. After its strong growth, we cannot exclude a temporary retreat. The rate could come back down to test and retest the near-term support levels before jumping toward new highs. Technically, the bias is bullish as the Dollar Index is strongly bullish. The USD/CHF pair jumped higher after the US Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI reported better than expected data on Friday. Today, ECB President Lagarde Speaks, and the FOMC Member Collins and FOMC Member Mester's remarks could move the USD. USD/CHF Breakout Attempt! The USD/CHF pair edged higher after retesting the ascending pitchfork's warning line (wl1) and the 0.9755 former low (static support). Now, it has reached the 0.9850 former high which represents a static resistance. In the short term, it could come back to test and retest the former highs trying to accumulate more bullish energy. Only false breakouts through the 0.9850 could signal an extended sideways movement. USD/CHF Outlook! A valid breakout through 0.9850, jumping and closing above this level may activate further growth at least towards the 0.9886 historical level. This scenario brings potential long opportunities. A larger upwards movement could be activated by a valid breakout above 0.9886.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294126
Analysis Of Situation Of The US Dollar To Swiss Franc Pair (USD/CHF)

The US Dollar To Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Pair Seems Ready For Further Growth

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.10.2022 13:42
USD/CHF turns positive for the second straight day and draws support from a combination of factors. Aggressive Fed rate hike bets continue to underpin the USD and remain supportive of the move up. A positive risk tone dents demand for the safe-haven CHF and provide an additional lift to the major. The USD/CHF pair attracts fresh buying near the 0.9830 region on Monday and turns positive for the second successive day. The intraday move up picks up the pace and lifts spot prices back above the 0.9900 mark, or a three-day high during the first half of the European session. Following an early dip, the US dollar catches fresh bids on the first day of a new week and allows the USD/CHF pair to capitalize on Friday's strong rally of nearly 150 pips from the 0.9730 area. Apart from this, a modest recovery in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a positive tone around the US equity futures - undermines the safe-haven Swiss franc and provides an additional lift to the major. The USD uptick, meanwhile, seems unaffected by a softer tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields and continues to take cues from expectations that the Fed will stick to its aggressive rate hiking cycle. In fact, the markets have been pricing in another supersized 75 bps Fed rate increase in November. This, in turn, should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and favours the USD bulls. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the ISM Manufacturing PMI for a fresh impetus later during the early North American session. The focus, however, will be on Friday's release of the US monthly jobs report, popularly known as NFP. Nevertheless, the USD/CHF pair seems poised to climb further towards the 0.9945-0.9950 supply zone, or a multi-month high set in September.
The USD/CHF Pair Returned To Its Previous Three-Day Recovery

The USD/CHF Pair Has Slipped Below The Critical Support

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 07.10.2022 09:08
USD/CHF has dropped below 0.9900 amid subdued performance by the DXY. The risk-off tone has charged back as odds for Fed’s 75 bps rate hike have soared. The mega event of the US NFP will provide further direction to the FX domain. The USD/CHF pair has slipped below the critical support of 0.9900 after sensing a loss in upside momentum. On a broader note, the asset is oscillating in a range of 0.9887-0.9913 and is expected to deliver an explosion of the same. The asset has turned sideways, following the footprints of the US dollar index (DXY), as investors are awaiting the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for making an informed auction. Meanwhile, the market sentiment has turned negative sharply as S&P500 has surrendered its entire pullback. Meanwhile, bets for a fourth consecutive 75 basis points (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have soared dramatically. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, the odds advocating a 75 bps rate hike are 75.9%, higher than Thursday’s figure of 66%. However, the US dollar index (DXY) has failed to capitalize on the catalyst and has continued its lackluster performance.   On the economic data front, the US NFP is expected to land at 250k, lower than the prior release of 315k. A continuation of monetary policy tightening by the Fed is resulting in a downbeat consensus. Due to higher interest rates, firms have postponed their capacity expansion plans. Also, weaker demand by households has forced producers to avoid full-capacity utilization. The whole structure is responsible for a decline in employment generation numbers. On the Swiss franc front, investors are awaiting the release of the Swiss Unemployment Rate. The Swiss jobless rate is expected to remain steady at 2.1%.
UK Inflation Data Boosts Chances of August Rate Hike

The USD/CHF Traders Will Pay Attention To The speech From SNB’s Jordan

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 11.10.2022 10:16
USD/CHF bulls take a breather after refreshing multi-day top. Firmer yields and risk-aversion joins hawkish Fed bets to propel DXY. SNB Chairman Jordan’s failure to convince markets of further rate hikes can propel the quote beyond 1.0050-65 key hurdle. USD/CHF bulls flirt with the parity during the five-day uptrend early Tuesday in Europe, after rising to the highest levels since June. The Swiss currency (CHF) pair’s latest gains could be linked to the market’s rush towards the risk safety, as well as anxiety ahead of today’s speech from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan. The market’s sour sentiment take clues from the intensifying Russia-Ukraine tussles as Moscow shells Kyiv after witnessing an explosion at the Crimean bridge. On the same line are the fears surrounding China’s take on Taiwan and the US's friendship with the Asian nation. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures that drop 0.50% as bears lean towards the monthly low. Additionally, hawkish Fedbets and firmer Treasury bond yields also portray the market’s risk-off mood and underpin the US Dollar’s strength. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises 0.18% intraday gains as it prints a five-day uptrend near 113.40. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies traces the US Treasury yields as the US 30-year Treasury yields rise to a fresh high since January 2014 whereas the 10-year counterpart pokes the 4.0% threshold. Also favoring the DXY is the CME’s FedWatch Tool which signals a 78% chance of the Fed’s 75 bps rate hike in November. The mixed Fedspeak and the US holiday on Monday couldn’t disappoint the DXY bulls. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Monday that the US can lower inflation relatively quickly without recession or a large increase in unemployment. The policymaker also added that the Fed needs to "carefully and judiciously" navigate to a "reasonably restrictive" policy rate. It should be noted that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard made the case for cautious rate hikes for the future, per the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). Looking forward, USD/CHF traders will pay attention to the speech from SNB’s Jordan to confirm further rate hikes from the Swiss central bank. Should Jordan manage to convince hawks, the quote may witness a pullback. However, major attention will be given to Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes and Thursday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September. Technical analysis Although the USD/CHF buyers cheer the pair’s sustained trading above the monthly support line, around 0.9875 by the press time, a five-month-long horizontal resistance area near 1.0050-65 appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls amid the nearly overbought RSI.
Analysis Of USD/CHF Pair: The Swiss Currency Pair Rebounds

There Is Pressure That Weakens The US Dollar To Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.10.2022 09:24
USD/CHF edges lower on Monday and is pressured by a modest USD weakness. Retreating US bond yields turns out to be a key factor weighing on the greenback. Aggressive Fed rate hike bets should help limit losses for the buck and lend support. The USD/CHF pair kicks off the new week on a softer note and reverses a major part of Friday's positive move back closer to its highest level since May 2019. The pair remains on the defensive through the early European session and is currently trading around the 1.0020-1.0025 region. A modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields prompts some selling around the US dollar on Monday, which, in turn, is seen exerting downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair. That said, expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the greenback. Investors seem convinced that the US central bank will continue to hike interest rates at a faster pace to curb inflation and anticipate another supersized 75 bps increase in November. Apart from this, a positive risk tone undermines the safe-haven Swiss franc and should help limit the downside for the USD/CHF pair. The global risk sentiment got a boost amid reports that the UK government is preparing for a major U-turn on planned tax cuts. That said, concerns about the potential economic fallout from China's zero-COVID policy, along with geopolitical risks, have been fueling recession fears and capping any optimism in the markets. The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for a firm intraday direction. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index. This, along with the US bond yields, might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the USD/CHF pair.
Traders assume interest rates in Japan and Switzerland could steadily go up next year

The US Dollar To Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Pair Can Lean Towards The Bulls

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 19.10.2022 09:07
USD/CHF edges higher on Wednesday amid a modest pickup in the USD demand. Hawkish Fed expectations, elevated US bond yields act as a tailwind for the buck. The risk-on mood undermines the safe-haven CHF and offers support to the pair. The USD/CHF pair attracts some buying near the 0.9925-0.9930 area on Wednesday and moves away from a one-week low touched the previous day. The pair is currently trading around the mid-0.9900s, though the modest intraday uptick lacks bullish conviction. The prospects for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed assist the US dollar to regain some positive traction, which, in turn, is seen offering some support to the USD/CHF pair. The markets seem convinced that the Fed will continue to hike interest rates at a faster pace to tame inflation and have now priced in a nearly 100% chance of another supersized 75 bps increase in November. The bets were reaffirmed by hotter US consumer inflation figures released last week and the recent hawkish remarks by several Fed officials. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continues to act as a tailwind for the greenback. In fact, the yield on the rate-sensitive 2-year US government bond and the benchmark 10-year Treasury note stand tall near a multi-year peak. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on environment - as depicted by the follow-through rally in the equity markets - undermines the safe-haven Swiss francs and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair. Despite the supporting factors, spot prices, so far, have struggled to gain any meaningful traction. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favour of bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CHF pair is to the upside. Traders now look to the US housing market data - Building Permits and Housing Starts - for a fresh impetus. This, along with the US bond yields, will drive the USD demand and produce short-term opportunities around the USD/CHF pair.
Analysis Of USD/CHF Pair: The Swiss Currency Pair Rebounds

US Dollar (USD): Unsupportive Risk Appetite. Jing Ren (Orbex) Comments On USDCHF, XAUUSD And UK100

Jing Ren Jing Ren 19.10.2022 11:18
In this article: USD/CHF Gold Price UK 100 USDCHF takes breather A regain in risk appetite keeps the US dollar in check. A drop below 0.9960 led intraday buyers to take profit. The price is taking a breather after it broke above the double top at 1.0040, a key resistance on the daily chart. The bullish breakout may have paved the way for an extended rally in the medium-term. The current pullback might be an opportunity for the bulls to stake in. 0.9880 over the 20-day moving average is the first support and the RSI’s oversold condition may attract bids. A close above 1.0030 would resume the uptrend. XAUUSD seeks support Bullions steadies as the US dollar softens across the board. After meeting stiff selling pressure in the supply zone (1730), the precious metal has been struggling to hold onto its recent gains. The trend remains bearish and may bring in more followers to depress the price action. 1615 is a critical level to keep the rebound relevant and its breach would trigger a new round of sell-off to April 2020’s low at 1570. The support-turned-resistance 1670 is the first level to crack then the real challenge would be to lift 1730. UK 100 tests resistance The FTSE 100 inches higher on improved risk sentiment. A break above 6900 prompted some short interests to cover, easing the downward pressure. A series of higher lows would further boost buyers’ confidence and send the index to the daily resistance at 7100 where a breakout could extend the recovery towards 7300. In the meantime, an overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback with 6912 as the closest support. Further down, 6820 is the bulls’ second line of defence to keep the price action afloat. Our comment on today's UK Inflation Print:  
Analysis Of Movement Of The Canadian Dollar To Swiss Franc Pair (CAD/CHF)

A Recovery In The US Equity Futures Undermines The Safe-Haven Swiss Franc (CHF)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 20.10.2022 09:09
USD/CHF holds steady near a multi-year peak, though lacks follow-through buying. A modest USD pullback holds back bulls from placing fresh bets and caps the upside. Aggressive Fed rate hike bets and elevated US bond yields still favour the USD bulls. The USD/CHF pair trades with a positive bias for the second successive day on Thursday and is currently placed near the 1.0045-1.0050 area, just below its highest level since May 2019. A combination of diverging forces, however, is holding back bulls from placing fresh bets and keeping a lid on any further gains, at least for the time being. A recovery in the US equity futures undermines the safe-haven Swiss franc and acts as a headwind for the USD/CHF pair. That said, a modest US dollar pullback offsets the supporting factor and caps the upside. The USD downtick, meanwhile, lacks any obvious catalyst and is more likely to remain limited amid the prospects for more aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. The markets are currently pricing a nearly 100% chance for another supersized 75 bps Fed rate hike move in November. This, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the rate-sensitive 2-year US government bond stands tall near a 15-year peak and the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rises to its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The fundamental backdrop supports prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying and an eventual breakout for the USD/CHF pair beyond the 1.0065-1.0075 strong resistance zone. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data. This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members and the US bond yields, will drive the USD demand and produce short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CHF pair.
Analysis Of Situation Of The US Dollar To Swiss Franc Pair (USD/CHF)

Solid Data Can Support The Bulls Of The Swiss Franc (CHF)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 25.10.2022 09:08
USD/CHF has confidently reclaimed the psychological resistance of 1.0000 despite an upbeat market mood. The DXY is trading lackluster amid the unavailability of a potential trigger. Fed’s extreme tightening measures have opened doors for recession risk. The USD/CHF pair has extended its recovery above 1.0004 in the Tokyo session after a rebound from 0.9980. The asset has picked bids despite a subdued performance by the US dollar index (DXY). The mighty DXY is displaying an intraday inventory adjustment phase, which could deliver an explosion of the volatility contraction in the European session. The risk-on profile is getting back into the picture as S&P500 futures have extended their gains after recovering their morning losses. Meanwhile, the returns on US government bonds have slipped further as investors’ risk appetite is improving. 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped marginally below 4.21%. The investing community is shifting its focus toward the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which is due on Thursday. As per the projections, the US growth rate is seen higher at 2.4% vs. a decline of 0.6% reported earlier. An occurrence of the same could delight the Fed as the labor market is losing its charm and inflationary pressures are not providing solid evidence of a slowdown in the pace of the inflation rate. As accelerating interest rates have forced institutions to trim their economic projections for the US economy, eventually, fears of recession risk have escalated. US Treasury Chief Janet Yellen cited “Cannot rule out risk” of a recession, reported MSNBC news. On the Swiss Franc front, investors are awaiting the release of the ZEW Survey-Expectations data. The economy catalyst is seen lower at -43.8 vs. the prior release of -69.2. An improvement in business and employment conditions could support the Swiss franc bulls ahead.
Analysis Of Movement Of The Canadian Dollar To Swiss Franc Pair (CAD/CHF)

The Swiss Currency Pair (USD/CHF) Is Profit-Oriented

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 31.10.2022 09:27
USD/CHF grinds higher during a three-day uptrend, eyes third consecutive monthly gain. Convergence of 50-SMA, 100-SMA challenge buyers of late. MACD, RSI conditions suggest gradual advances toward the yearly low. USD/CHF buyers jostle with the 0.9975-80 hurdle during the initial hour of Monday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair braces for the third monthly gain as it pokes a joint of the 100-SMA and the 50-SMA. Given the firmer RSI (14) and the bullish MACD signals, not to forget the pair’s sustained trading beyond a three-day-old ascending trend line, USD/CHF prices are likely to remain firmer. However, a clear upside break of the 0.9980 hurdle appears necessary for the buyers to meet the 1.0000 psychological magnet. Following that, multiple hurdles around 1.0080 could probe the USD/CHF pair’s upside ahead of challenging the yearly top of 1.0148. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.0150, the April 2019 peak surrounding 1.0240 will gain the market’s attention. Meanwhile, the pullback move remains elusive unless the quote stays beyond the aforementioned support line from Wednesday, close to 0.9920 at the latest. Should the USD/CHF bears manage to conquer the 0.9920 support, the 0.9900 threshold and the monthly low near 0.9840 will be on their radar. Overall, USD/CHF is likely to remain firmer but the upside room appears limited. USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected
The USD/CHF Pair Returned To Its Previous Three-Day Recovery

There Is A Key Factor Exerting Downward Pressure On The USD/CHF Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.11.2022 10:08
USD/CHF snaps a three-day winning streak to over a one-week high amid modest USD weakness. Expectations for another 75 bps Fed rate hike should limit the USD losses and lend some support. A positive risk tone could undermine the safe-haven CHF and warrants caution for bearish traders. The USD/CHF pair comes under some selling pressure on Tuesday and snaps a three-day winning streak to over a one-week high touched the previous day. The pair maintains its offered tone through the early part of the European session and is currently flirting with the daily low, around mid-0.9900s. The US dollar struggles to capitalize on its gains recorded over the past three trading sessions amid speculations that the Fed will soften its hawkish stance amid signs of a slowdown in the US economy. In fact, the USD Index, which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of currencies, stalls its recent bounce from over a one-month low. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair. The downside for the greenback, however, seems limited amid firming expectations for another supersized 75 bps Fed rate hike at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Apart from this, a goodish recovery in the global risk sentiment seems to undermine the safe-haven Swiss franc. The combination of the aforementioned factors should lend some support to the USD/CHF pair, warranting some caution before placing fresh bearish bets. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI later during the early North American session. The data might influence the USD, which, along with the broader risk sentiment, should provide some impetus. The focus, however, will remain on the highly-anticipated FOMC policy decision, which will help determine the near-term trajectory for the buck and the USD/CHF pair.
Oanda's Kenny Fisher talks US dollar against Canadian dollar

Greenback went down as the US unemployment rate goes higher, loonie got stronger

Jing Ren Jing Ren 07.11.2022 08:33
USDCHF struggles for support The US dollar plunged after data showed a higher US unemployment rate in October. A break below 1.0000 could prolong the consolidation as the parity level has been acting like a magnet, pulling the price back and forth. With the RSI deeply in the oversold area. Trend followers may see the pullback as an opportunity to stake in. 0.9920 is the first support and 0.9840 a critical level to keep the price afloat. 1.0020 is a fresh resistance and a bounce above 1.0140 could pave the way for a rally to a six-year high at 1.0350. USDCAD breaks critical support The Canadian dollar soared after solid jobs data raised bets for a large-sized rate hike by the BoC. The pair has been struggling to hold onto its gains above October’s lows (1.3500), which was a critical level to keep the rally relevant in the short-term. A previous rally came under pressure in the supply zone around 1.3800, then a fall below 1.3600 revealed that the bears have regained control. A dip below 1.3500 would extend losses towards 1.3400. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound with 1.3600 as the first hurdle. GER 40 breaks major ceiling The Dax 40 rallies as mixed US jobs data lift risk appetite across asset classes. The index previously met stiff selling pressure near September’s high around 13450. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling in this supply zone has weighed on the short-term price action. But the fallback has only shaken out weak hands and the swift recovery with a higher high indicates that the bulls are still in play. The bullish breakout could lift offers to the August high (13950). 13100 is the support should the Dax need some breathing room.
The USD/CHF Pair Is All Set To Revisit The Monthly Low

The US Dollor To Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Pair Portrays The Market’s Risk-Off Mood

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 08.11.2022 09:08
USDCHF picks up bids to refresh intraday high, snaps two-day downtrend. Risk aversion, sluggish markets underpin USDCHF rebound ahead of the key data/events. US CPI, mid-term election outcomes and comments from SNB’s Jordan are the key catalysts to watch for clear directions. USDCHF prints mild gains around 0.9915 while snapping a two-day downtrend around the lowest level in a week. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair portrays the market’s risk-off mood, as well as the cautious sentiment ahead of a speech from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governor Thomas Jordan. A jump in China’s daily coronavirus number, the biggest one since May 01, joins the market’s anxiety amid the US mid-term elections buzz and could be considered the main catalyst behind the recent swing in the mood. In this regard, Reuters states, “COVID-19 cases sharply escalated in Guangzhou and other major Chinese cities, official data showed on Tuesday, with the global manufacturing hub fighting its worst flare-up ever and testing its ability to avoid a Shanghai-style citywide lockdown.” The news also mentioned that the new locally transmitted infections climbed to 7,475 nationwide on November 7, according to China's health authority, up from 5,496 the day before and the highest since May 1. That said, an otherwise uninteresting US mid-term election gain the market’s attention as ex-President Donald Trump teased a “very big” announcement coming on November 15. “If Republicans secure a House majority, they plan to use the federal debt ceiling as leverage to demand deep spending cuts. They would also seek to make Trump's 2017 individual tax cuts permanent and protect corporate tax cuts that Democrats have unsuccessfully tried to reverse over the past two years,” said Reuters. Against this backdrop, the US stock futures print mild losses whereas the US Treasury yields grind higher and the US Dollar Index (DXY) recover from the eight-day low. Looking forward, a mention of the recently firmer Swiss inflation numbers and the SNB’s readiness for more rate increases could probe USDCHF buyers. However, the risk-off mood may help the pair remain firmer ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, up for publishing on Thursday. Technical analysis USDCHF buyers remain hopeful unless the quote provides a daily closing below the 0.9880-70 support confluence, including the 50-day EMA and an upward-sloping support line from September 30.
The USD/CHF Pair Can Overcome The Immediate Obstacle Of A Trend Line

The USD/CHF Pair Can Overcome The Immediate Obstacle Of A Trend Line

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.11.2022 09:06
USDCHF picks up bids to print the first daily gains in four. Easing bearish bias of the MACD, clear bounce off fortnight-old support keeps buyers hopeful. Weekly resistance line challenge intraday buyers ahead of the key hurdle comprising 200-SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement level. USDCHF extends the previous day’s rebound from a fortnight-old support area to 0.9870 during early Wednesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair jostles with a downward-sloping resistance line from the last Friday. Given the quote’s successful rebound from the short-term key support area surrounding 0.9840, coupled with the recently easing bearish bias of the MACD, the USDCHF prices are likely to remain firmer. As a result, the quote may overcome the immediate trend line hurdle near 0.9875, which in turn could allow buyers to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s late September-October upside, close to 0.9900. It should, however, be noted that a convergence of the 200-SMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, near 0.9945, appears a tough nut to crack for the USDCHF bulls and trigger the pullback afterward. If the quote remains firmer past 0.9945, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the parity level can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, the aforementioned horizontal support near 0.9840 restricts short-term USDCHF declines, a break of which could direct the bears towards the previous monthly low near 0.9780 and then to the 0.9740 level comprising the late September swing low. USDCHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited recovery expected  
Analysis Of Situation Of The US Dollar To Swiss Franc Pair (USD/CHF)

The Five-Day Losing Streak Of The USD/CHF Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.11.2022 09:41
USDCHF remains pressured at one-month low, down for the fifth consecutive day. US Dollar drops amid mixed Fedspeak, softer yields. Markets remain dicey as S&P 500 Future print mild gains, Asian stocks track Wall Street’s losses. Traders brace for a softer US CPI, a surprise can recall buyers. USDCHF takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 0.9825 during the early hours of Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair prints a five-day losing streak as it approaches the lowest levels since October 06, marked the previous day. The quote’s latest weakness could be linked to the market’s hopes of softer US inflation data for October, as well as the recently downbeat comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. That said, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari recently mentioned “Some things are out of our control on inflation.” Previously, New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams mentioned that the relatively stable long-term inflation expectations are good news. On the same line, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin also mentioned that the Fed’s fight against inflation may lead to a downturn in the US economy but that is a risk that the Fed will have to take. It should be noted that comments suggesting an absence of the need for aggressive rate hikes from the monetary policymakers of Australia, New Zealand and Japan also recently favored the market sentiment and weighed on the USDCHF prices. Furthermore, a slight decline in China’s covid numbers and Russia’s retreat from Kherson exerted additional downside pressure on the US Dollar. Earlier in the week, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan said, “Our monetary policy decisions are not based exclusively on our inflation forecast.” The policymaker also mentioned that they are also experimenting with machine-learning models that are trained using a large set of economic and alternative indicators. It’s worth noting that the fears of global recession and the US political gridlock, as well as China’s covid woes, underpinned the previous day’s tepid rebound. Against this backdrop, the US Treasury yields remain pressured while the S&P 500 futures print mild gains. Further, the Asian equities trade mixed whereas the US Dollar Index (DXY) reverse the previous day’s rebound from the two-month low. Moving on, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, expected to ease to 8.0% YoY from 8.2% prior, appears the key catalyst for the USDCHF traders amid chatters over the easy Fed rate hike in December. Also read: US October CPI Preview: US Dollar to weaken on a CPI-inspired risk rally Technical analysis Unless trading successfully beyond the previous support line from late September, around 0.9890 by the press time, USDCHF remains on the way to test the six-week low near 0.9740.
The USD/CHF Pair Returned To Its Previous Three-Day Recovery

Losing Streak In The USD/CHF Pair Has Been Halted

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.11.2022 08:56
A six-day losing spell has halted after kissing the upward-sloping trendline around 0.9400. The 50-and 200-EMAs have turned south which indicates that the short-and long-term trend has turned bearish. A bearish range shift by the RSI (14) adds to the downside filters. The USDCHF pair has extended its recovery after overstepping the intraday hurdle of 0.9455 in the Asian session. As the risk-on impulse is losing its steam after remaining at the driver’s seat, the risk aversion theme is gaining traction. Six-day losing streak in USDCHF has been halted for now. The US dollar index (DXY) has rebounded to near 106.90 after registering a three-month of 106.28. S&P500 futures are displaying losses after an extended weekend. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields have resurfaced to 3.89%. On a daily scale, the asset has displayed a perpendicular fall after failing to sustain above the critical resistance of 1.0100. The major has dropped sharply to near the upward-sloping trendline placed from the 6 January 2021 low at 0.8758. A sheer decline in the pair has turned the 50-and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 0.9830 and 0.9645 respectively towards the downside. This indicates that the short- and long-term trend is bearish now. Adding to that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 for the first time in 15 months, which indicates more weakness ahead. Should the asset drop below Friday’s low around 0.9400, the Swiss franc bulls will drag the pair towards January 31 high at 0.9343, followed by March 31 low around 0.9200. On the flip side, a break above the psychological resistance of 0.9500 will drive the asset toward the 200-EMA at 0.9645. A breach above the 200-EMA will send the asset toward the round-level resistance at 0.9700. USDCHF daily chart  
Analysis Of Situation Of The US Dollar To Swiss Franc Pair (USD/CHF)

Analysis Of Situation Of The US Dollar To Swiss Franc Pair (USD/CHF)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.11.2022 09:00
The Greenback bulls will get strengthened after an upside break of the accumulation phase. A Spring formation around 0.9400 to remain a major support area ahead. The 20-and 50-EMAs are on the verge of delivering a bull cross. The USDCHF pair has extended its recovery after overstepping the immediate hurdle of 0.9458 in the Tokyo session. The asset has been underpinned as investors have preferred to turn risk-averse amid geopolitical tensions between North Korea and the US. North Korea warned on Thursday of "fiercer military responses" to U.S. efforts to boost its security presence in the region with its allies, says Reuters. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is aiming to test Wednesday’s high around 106.78. The 10-year US Treasury yields have shown a mild recovery to near 3.73%. USDCHF has delivered a breakout of the inventory accumulation phase in which inventory shifts from retail participants to institutional investors. Earlier, the asset rebounded after forming a Spring around 0.9400 support. This marks a selling climax, followed by a responsive buying action. The 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are on the verge of delivering a bearish crossover of around 0.9450. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is attempting to shift into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. Going forward, a decisive move above Monday’s high at 0.9489 will drive the asset towards November 10 low at 0.9630, followed by November 9 low at 0.9800. On the flip side, a drop below Spring formation around 0.9400 will drag the pair towards January 31 high at 0.9343. Slippage below the latter will drag the major towards March 31 low around 0.9200. USDCHF hourly chart  
The USD/CHF Pair Returned To Its Previous Three-Day Recovery

Technical Analysis Of The USD/CHF Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 24.11.2022 09:23
USD/CHF extends week-start pullback towards the monthly low. Three-month-old horizontal area challenges sellers amid oversold RSI, 200-DMA restricts buyer’s entry. 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels act as additional trading filters. USD/CHF takes offers to refresh the weekly low near 0.9390 as sellers cheer the third consecutive daily fall heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair extends Tuesday‘s U-turn from 0.9600, as well as the previous day’s downside break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of January-November upside. That said, the bearish MACD signals add strength to the downside bias. However, nearly oversold conditions of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), placed at 14, suggest limited downside room for the USD/CHF pair. As a result, an area comprising lows marked during August and so far in November, around 0.9370-55, gains the major attention of the bears. If at all the USD/CHF bears conquer the 0.9355 support, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.9310 and the 0.9300 round figure could act as additional downside filter to challenge the pair’s further declines. On the contrary, March’s high of 0.9460 acts as an immediate upside hurdle for the USD/CHF bulls, a break of which could escalate the corrective bounce towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.9500. However, the pair buyers are likely to remain indecisive unless witnessing a clear upside break of the 200-DMA, around 0.9635, at the latest. USD/CHF: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected
The USD/CHF Pair Is All Set To Revisit The Monthly Low

The US Dollar To Swiss Franc Pair (USD/CHF) May Remain Firmer

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 28.11.2022 09:39
USD/CHF prints three-day uptrend as sour sentiment underpins US Dollar. China-linked woes join pre-data anxiety to favor USD/CHF bulls. Swiss Q3 GDP, Fed Chair Powell’s speech and US NFP are the key calendar events. Headlines surrounding China are also important for clear directions. USD/CHF retreats from intraday high but stays on the bull’s radar for the third consecutive day, near 0.9465 heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair portrays the market’s risk-off mood ahead of the key data/events scheduled for publishing this week. Although alleged defense from Chinese authorities to safeguard equities appeared to trigger the USD/CHF pair’s latest pullback, the broad risk-aversion wave, due to the Covid fears, seems to keep the pair buyers hopeful. That said, the record-high daily virus infections from China and the protests to ease the Zero-Covid policy seemed to challenge the market sentiment of late. On the other hand, the cautious mood ahead of Switzerland’s third quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to grow by 1.0% YoY versus 2.8% prior growth, also seemed to have favored the USD/CHF bulls of late. Elsewhere, hopes that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may sound hawkish during his firmer publish appearance since the November meeting, while also signaling the easy rate hikes, appear to have offered additional strength to the USD/CHF bulls. Furthermore, a record high online shopping by US citizens on Black Friday favored the US Dollar to pare recent losses. “US shoppers spent a record $9.12 billion online this Black Friday, a report showed on Saturday, as consumers weathered the squeeze from high inflation and grabbed steep discounts on everything from Smartphones to toys,” mentioned Reuters. Against this backdrop, US stock futures are down 0.70% intraday and the key Treasury bond yields also extend the latest south-run. Given the recent risk-off mood, the USD/CHF may remain firmer unless the Swiss GDP offers a positive surprise. Technical analysis A clear upside break of the two-week-old descending trend line, around 0.9450 by the press time, keeps the USD/CHF bulls hopeful of visiting the 200-DMA hurdle of 0.9636.      
Credit Suisse case: Western Assets expects Swiss authorities to act if sentiment doesn't improve

The Risk-On Mood Seems To Weigh On The US Dollar To Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 29.11.2022 09:20
USD/CHF renews intraday low during the first negative daily performance in four. Improvement in market sentiment, downbeat US Treasury bond yields weigh on the US Dollar. Swiss Q3 GDP, US CB Consumer Confidence could offer immediate directions. USD/CHF takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 0.9460 heading into Tuesday’s European session as it snaps the three-day uptrend. Although the risk-on mood seems to weigh on the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair, a cautious mood ahead of the key data/events tests the downside momentum of late. The market’s optimism could be linked to the easing of China’s daily covid infections from an all-time high of 40,347 to 38,645. Further, a rally in the Chinese reality stocks, backed by the national securities regulator’s lifting of a ban on equity refinancing for listed property firms, also seemed to have favored the market optimism and weighed on the US Dollar. “The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said late on Monday it would broaden equity financing channels, including private share placements for China and Hong Kong-listed Chinese developers, lifting a ban that has been in place for years,” mentioned the news. It should be noted that the mixed comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and cautious mood before the release of Switzerland’s third quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) seem to probe the pair sellers of late. That said, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin recently mentioned that he supports smaller interest-rate hikes ahead as the central bank moves to bring down too-high inflation. Previously, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester marked the need to see several more good inflation reports and more signs of moderation to back the pause in rate hikes. On the same line, St. Louis Fed President James "Jim" Bullard stated that the situation calls for much higher interest rates than what we've been used to. Further, New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said that he believes the Fed will need to raise rates to a level sufficiently restrictive to push down on inflation and keep them there for all of next year. Additionally, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard advocated for tighter monetary policy while citing risk-management reasons. Amid these plays, the US stock futures and equities in the Asia-Pacific region print mild gains despite the downbeat performance of Wall Street. Further, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain depressed near 3.69% by the press time and weigh on the US Dollar amid the risk-on mood. Looking forward, the Swiss GDP Annualized for the Q3, expected to ease to 1.0% YoY versus 2.8% prior, could direct USD/CHF traders ahead of the US Confederation Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence for November. Though, Wednesday’s speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Friday’s US jobs report will be crucial for clear directions. Technical analysis Unless successfully crossing the 200-DMA hurdle, currently around 0.9640 by the press time, USD/CHF remains vulnerable to refreshing the monthly low, near 0.9355 at the latest.      
Analysis Of USD/CHF Pair: The Swiss Currency Pair Rebounds

Kenny Fisher talks weaker greenback versus Swiss franc - December 1st

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 01.12.2022 23:39
The Swiss franc continues to gain ground as the US dollar has weakened broadly in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s comments on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9384, down 0.74% US dollar slides as Powell signals 50-bp hike It may not have been a dovish pivot, but the financial markets saw a green light after Jerome Powell’s comments on Wednesday. Powell’s speech was essentially a rehash of the Fedspeak we’ve been hearing over the past several weeks, but his broad hint that the Fed would ease the December rate hike to 50 basis points (after four straight hikes of 75 bp) gave investors the excuse to buy equities. Read next: There Is A Chance That The RBA Will Again Raise Rates By 25bp| FXMAG.COM Powell said that slowing down at this point “is a good way to balance the risks”, as the Fed Chair is trying to slow the economy while at the same time avoiding a recession. The markets responded by pricing in a 50-bp rate hike at 80%, up sharply from 65% prior to Powell’s remarks. This sent financial markets higher but pushed the US dollar sharply lower, with USD/CHF dropping close to 1% on Wednesday. Powell’s message was balanced, as he reiterated that rates could rise higher than previously anticipated and for a longer period in order to tame inflation. The Fed remains committed to bringing inflation lower, and Powell said  “substantially more evidence” was needed to convince the Fed that inflation was actually declining. The markets, however, chose to go on an equity spree, buoyed by expectations that the Fed has decided to ease the pace of rate hikes. This week’s data continues to raise concerns about the Swiss economy.  The KOF Economic Barometer slowed to 89.5, down from 90.0 and shy of the estimate of 91.3. The ZEW Expectations survey also slowed to -57.5, down from -53.1 and well off the consensus of -41.9. Retail sales for October, released today, were a huge disappointment at -2.5%. This follows a 2.6% gain in September and missed the consensus of 3.3%. The Swiss franc has enjoyed a superb November, as USD/CHF has plunged 5.5%. If this trend continues, we could see the Swiss National Bank express some concern about the rising Swiss franc, which could drag down the key export sector. USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF  is putting pressure on support at 0.9366. The next support level is 0.9277 There is resistance at 0.9482 and 0.9577 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Swiss franc climbs as US dollar sags - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Credit Suisse case: Western Assets expects Swiss authorities to act if sentiment doesn't improve

The US Dollar To Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Bears Remain Hopeful

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.12.2022 08:54
USD/CHF snaps two-day downtrend as buyers prepare for US jobs report. Cautious mood, rebound in yields allow bears to take a breather amid sluggish session. US NFP could recall pair bears on downbeat forecasts, dovish Fed outlook. USD/CHF picks up bids to pare recent losses around the lowest levels in a fortnight during early Friday. That said, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair rebounds to 0.9385 by the press time. The quote’s latest consolidation could be linked to the anxiety ahead of the key US employment data, as well as recent comments from International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. The cautious mood before the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) gained extra strength after New York Fed’s John Williams stated that the Fed has a ways to go with rate rises. On the other hand, IMF’s Georgieva said that recession risks are rising for many countries, the outlook for global growth is exceptionally uncertain and dominated by risks. Also likely to have probed the USD/CHF bears could be the fears surrounding the slowdown in the Initial Public Offering (IPO) markets. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures drop 0.30% intraday to 4,070 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields printed a corrective bounce off the 10-week low to 3.54% by the press time. However, the USD/CHF bears remain hopeful as the majority of the Fed policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell advocated for easy rate hikes. On the same line were the comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Furthermore, mostly downbeat United States data also weigh on USD/CHF prices. It should be noted that the softer economics from Switzerland also challenged the USD/CHF bears of late. Swiss Real Retail Sales dropped by 2.5% YoY in October versus anticipated growth of 3.3% and 2.5% (revised) prior. Additionally, the nation’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched 3.0% YoY forecasts and prior while missing on MoM to 0.0% versus 0.1% expected and previous readings. To sum up, USD/CHF portrays the pre-data correction and is likely to decline further after the US statistics. Forecasts suggest that the headlines Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is likely to ease with a 200K print versus 261K prior while the Unemployment Rate could remain unchanged at 3.7%. Technical analysis Despite the latest rebound, the USD/CHF bears remain hopeful of breaking the previous monthly low of 0.9355 unless the quote stays firmer beyond the support-turned-resistance line from November 15, close to 0.9415 by the press time.      
ADP Non-farm payrolls jobs market data show a growth of 127K, much less than the previous print

Greenback gains from the November wage growth, US 30 changed direction as traders benefit from the NFP

Jing Ren Jing Ren 05.12.2022 08:40
USDCHF remains under pressure The US dollar jumped over strong wage growth in November. A drop below the recent low of 0.9370 further weighed on sentiment by invalidating the double bottom between August and November. As the latest buyers are forced to bail out, the directional bias remains down. The pair is setting sail for last April’s low of 0.9200. The RSI’s oversold condition led to a bounce which might be capped by strong selling interest. 0.9460 is the first hurdle and the bulls will need to clear 0.9550 before they could press for a recovery. EURGBP struggles for support The higher-beta pound outperforms across the board thanks to improved risk sentiment. The recent rebound came to a halt at 0.8670 and a subsequent fall below the critical floor at 0.8570 indicates that the path of least resistance is down. This is an invalidation of the rally from early September after a two-month long consolidation. As buying interest becomes scarce, the bears may see a rebound as an opportunity to sell into strength. 0.8500 would be the next target should the sell-off regains momentum. US 30 bounces off support The Dow Jones 30 whipsawed as traders took profit post-NFP. The index has been looking to hold onto its recent gains after a rally above August’s high of 34300. A bounce off the previous consolidation range near 33600 and over the 20-day moving average suggests that the uptrend is still intact. The demand zone between 33600 and 33900 is key in keeping the current bullish framework valid. A close above 34700 could trigger a new round of momentum buying and send the price to last April’s high of 35500.
Credit Suisse case: Western Assets expects Swiss authorities to act if sentiment doesn't improve

The USD/CHF Pair Snaps The Two-Day Downward Trend

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 08.12.2022 09:37
USD/CHF prints mild gains while defending the bounce off weekly support line. 200-HMA probes the run-up targeting 13-day-old resistance line. MACD, RSI suggests extension of recent moves towards the north. USD/CHF picks up bids to 0.9420 during the first weekly positive, so far, in three heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair also snaps the two-day downtrend as it grinds near the intraday high. The quote’s latest upside could be linked to the repeated bounce off the one-week-old ascending trend line. Also keeping the buyers hopeful are the bullish MACD signals and the firmer RSI (14) line, not overbought. However, the 200-HMA level surrounding 0.9435 guards the USD/CHF pair’s immediate upside. Also acting as the short-term key resistance line is a downward-sloping trend line from November 21, near 0.9500 by the press time. In a case where the USD/CHF bulls manage to keep the reins past 0.9500, tops marked during November 30 and 21, close to 0.9550 and 0.9600 in that order, will be in focus. On the contrary, pullback moves remain elusive beyond the aforementioned short-term support line, near 0.9370 as we write. That said, the 0.9400 round figure limits the USD/CHF pair’s immediate downside. In a case where the quote stays weak past 0.9370, it becomes vulnerable to testing the lows marked during late March, around 0.9200. USD/CHF: Hourly chart Trend: Limited upside expected
Analysis Of USD/CHF Pair: The Swiss Currency Pair Rebounds

Risk Appetites Have Increased Because Of The US Readiness For Human Rights Sanctions On Russia And China

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.12.2022 09:25
USD/CHF holds lower ground in the weekly low, down for the fourth consecutive day. Mixed sentiment, downbeat US Treasury yields weigh on US Dollar. Early signals for next week’s US inflation, monetary policy meetings of Fed, SNB will be in focus. USD/CHF prints a four-day downtrend as sellers poke the lowest levels in eight months around 0.9325, marked the last Friday. That said, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair remains pressured around 0.9335 during early the early Asian session. The quote’s latest losses could be largely linked to the broad-based US Dollar weakness ahead of the next week’s busy schedule comprising the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting and the inflation data, not to forget today’s consumer-centric figures. In doing so, the major currency pair ignores challenges to the sentiment emanating from China and Russia, as well as fears of the global recession. US Dollar Index (DXY) prints a three-day downtrend near 104.60, down 0.22% intraday while tracing downbeat US Treasury yields and justifying the softer US data printed of late. On Thursday, US Initial Jobless Claims matched 230K market consensus for the week ended on December 02, versus the upwardly revised 226K prior. Further, the four-week average also printed 230K figure compared to 229K in previous readings. Earlier in the week, the US Goods and Services Trade Balance deteriorated to $-78.2 billion versus $-79.1 billion expected and $-73.28 billion prior. Further, the final readings of the Unit Labour for Q3 eased to 2.4% QoQ versus 3.5% first estimations. Talking about the risk catalysts, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Head Mathias Hubert Paul Cormann joined World Trade Organization (WTO) Director Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to highlight the risk of the global recession. On the same line is China’s Premier Li Keqiang. However, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s rejection of recession woes and hawkish expectations from the Fed fails to underpin the DXY rebound. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Thursday night that "Recession is not inevitable," while also declining to say whether the dollar had peaked against other currencies. Elsewhere, news from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), suggesting the US readiness for human rights sanctions on Russia and China, recently weighed on the market’s risk appetite. However, the previous headlines signaling China’s interest in rebuilding ties with the US and easing the Zero-Covid policy tried to defend the optimists. The mixed mood could be witnessed in mildly bid S&P 500 Futures and downbeat US Treasury yields, as well as slightly positive commodities, which in turn weigh on the US Dollar. Moving on, the USD/CHF pair traders should pay attention to the preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December, expected 53.3 versus 56.8 prior, for fresh impulse. Also important to watch will be the University of Michigan’s (UoM) 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for the said month, 3.0% previous readings. Above all, next week’s monetary policy meeting by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be crucial for the pair traders to follow. Technical analysis A daily closing below the monthly bottom surrounding 0.9325 becomes necessary for the USD/CHF bears to keep the reins and approach March 2022 low near 0.9195.  
Analysis Of The USD/CHF Pair Movements

USD/CHF Pair Is Expecting Further Upside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 12.12.2022 09:35
USD/CHF buyers struggle inside a bullish chart formation. Upbeat MACD signals suggest further advances, 200-HMA acts as an additional upside filter. Bears have a bumpy road to travel unless breaking 0.9300 support. USD/CHF prints mild gains around 0.9360 even as the 50-Hour Moving Average (HMA) challenges the buyers during early Monday in Europe. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair justifies bullish MACD signals while staying inside a short-term falling wedge bullish chart pattern. That said, the quote’s latest weakness becomes less troublesome beyond the stated wedge’s support line, around 0.9310 at the latest. Even if the quote defies the bullish chart formation, by breaking the 0.9310 support, the 0.9300 round figure could act as an extra filter to the south before pleasing the USD/CHF bears. In that case, lows marked during April and March around 0.9195 and 0.9150 respectively, will gain the major attention of the pair sellers. Meanwhile, recovery moves need validation from the 50-HMA hurdle of 0.9365, a break of which could poke the stated wedge’s upper line, close to 0.9395 at the latest. It should be noted that the USD/CHF run-up beyond 0.9395 should provide a clear break of the 200-HMA, around 0.9405 by the press time, to boost the buyer’s morale. Following that, a rally towards the late November swing high around the 0.9600 threshold can’t be ruled out. USD/CHF: Hourly chart Trend: Further upside expected
Analysis Of The USD/CHF Pair Movements

The Swiss National Bank Will Hike Interest Rates By 50 bps To 1%

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.12.2022 09:09
USD/CHF is oscillating below 0.9300 as investors await Federal Reserve’s policy release for fresh cues. Investors seek policy guidance for CY2023 from the Federal Reserve as an interest rate hike by 50 bps is highly expected. An interest rate hike by 50 bps is expected from the Swiss National Bank to keep inflation near 2%. USD/CHF  is expected to resume its downside journey as technical indicators narrate more weakness ahead. USD/CHF is displaying back-and-forth moves in a narrow range below the critical resistance of 0.9300 in the early European session. The Swiss Franc major asset is manifesting a lackluster performance as investors seek further guidance, which will be provided by the Federal Reserve (Fed) after it will announce its last monetary policy of CY2022 on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a balanced auction profile of around 104.00 after a recovery from a fresh five-month low at 103.59. On Tuesday, the USD Index displayed a perpendicular turmoil after the release of a soft November inflation report. A meaningful decline in the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) dampened safe-haven’s appeal. The US Treasury bonds got decent traction which has led to a fall in 10-year yields below 3.50%. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have extended their upside momentum on Wednesday amid rising hopes of a slowdown in the pace of the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Analysts at JP Morgan Chase & Co. cited that a soft reading in US CPI data could spark a powerful rally in US equities. Continuations of an upside move in the S&P500 futures are portraying a risk appetite theme in the market. While the Swiss Franc is awaiting the monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), scheduled for Thursday, for fresh impetus. Soft US Inflation report cements Fed’s interest rate hike by 50 bps The street was expecting a decline in the US inflationary pressures as the Producers Price Index (PPI) and oil prices remained weak in November. A decline in prices of finished goods at the factory gate by manufacturers is critical for a slowdown in consumer inflation. November’s US PPI reported a drop in headline figures to 7.4% from the former release of 8.0%. The headline CPI has dropped to 7.1% while the core inflation that doesn’t include oil and gas prices tumbled to 6.0%. Weaker prices of gasoline used cars, and airline fares remained major contributors to the lower price rise index. A significant deceleration in US inflation has set the ground for less-hawkish monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Fed policymakers were already advocating for a slowdown in policy tightening pace to reduce financial risks. And, a termination of 75 basis points (bps) rate hike spell looks solid, which will leave the option for a 50 bps rate hike announcement. The Federal Reserve might not choose a 25 bps rate hike as the inflation rate is still extremely diverged from the targeted rate of 2%. Policy guidance for CY2023 from Fed’s Powell a key trigger ahead After a second consecutive decline in the United States monthly inflation report, an interest rate hike announcement by 50 bps seems real. Therefore, investors will keep an eye on monetary policy guidance by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for the entire CY2023. A note from Commerzbank dictates that “The 50 basis points (bps) hike, which is generally expected for tomorrow's FOMC meeting, can be considered almost certain after today's data.” We continue to assume that the Fed will reduce the size of the rate hikes again at the beginning of 2023, moving by only 25 bps in February and March. Swiss National Bank to replicate expected Federal Reserve’s 50 bps move ahead The fourth quarterly monetary policy meeting of the Swiss National Bank is scheduled for Thursday and Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas J. Jordan is expected to hike its interest rate further by 50 bps. A Reuters poll on the Swiss National Bank’s interest rate expectations indicates that the central bank will hike interest rates by 50 bps to 1%. Switzerland’s inflation rate has already dropped from a peak of 3.2% to above 2%. To dodge inflation risks, the Swiss National Bank already shifted its borrowing cost from negative to positive territory for the first time after 2014. Investors also believe that the Swiss National Bank will keep in mind the widening interest rate differential from the European Central Bank (ECB) while drafting monetary policy. USD/CHF technical outlook USD/CHF has shifted into a negative trajectory after a downside break of the declining channel formed on a four-hour scale. The Swiss Franc major asset has dropped sharply after hovering around the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which indicates that the short-term trend has turned bearish. The 200-period EMA at 0.9530 is continuously slopping downwards from the past month, which signifies a bearish long-term trend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is on the verge of slipping into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which will trigger a bearish momentum ahead.     search   g_translate    
RBI's Strategic INR Support: Factors Behind India's Stable Currency Amidst Global Challenges

Markets Stay Relatively Quiet Early Thursday

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 15.12.2022 09:44
Following the highly volatile action witnessed during the American trading hours on Wednesday, markets stay relatively quiet early Thursday with investors gearing up for the Bank of England and the European Central Bank policy announcements. The Swiss National Bank will also unveil its interest rate decision and the US economic docket will feature Retail Sales and Industrial Production data for November alongside the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey. As expected, the Federal Reserve hiked its policy rate by 50 basis points to the range of 4.25-4.5% following its December policy meeting. The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that the median terminal rate projection rose to 5.1% from 4.6% in September's SEP. Although the initial market reaction to the hawkish dot plot provided a boost to the US Dollar, the currency lost its strength during FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. Powell said no one knew if the US economy would tilt into a recession next year or not and added that they could revise the peak rate projection lower if they continued to see soft inflation data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to its weakest level in six months at 103.44 late Wednesday and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield retreated below 3.5%. The risk-averse market environment helps the US Dollar stay resilient against its rivals in the European session on Thursday with the DXY clinging to modest recovery gains slightly below 104.00. Read next: From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level | FXMAG.COM Earlier in the day, the data from China showed that Retail Sales contracted at an annual rate of 5.9% in November, missing the market expectation for a decrease of 3.6%. Additionally, Industrial Production expanded by 2.2% in the same period, compared to analysts' estimate of +3.6%: Australian Bureau of Statistics announced on Thursday that the Unemployment Rate stayed unchanged at 3.4% in November with the Employment Changed coming in at +64K. Nevertheless, AUD/USD struggled to capitalize on the upbeat data and declined toward 0.6800, pressured by the risk-averse market environment and dismal macroeconomic figures from China. Similarly, NZD/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory below 0.6450. The data from New Zealand revealed that the Gross Domestic Product expanded at an annual rate of 6.4% in the third quarter, beating analysts' projections of 5.5%. EUR/USD came within a touching distance of 1.0700 late Wednesday before retreating toward 1.0650 on Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 50 bps. Hence, investors will pay close attention to revised quarterly projections and President Christine Lagarde's comments on QT and the policy outlook.  ECB Preview: Five reasons to expect Lagarde to lift the Euro with a hawkish hike. GBP/USD touched its highest level since early June near 1.2450 on Wednesday but lost its traction. As market participants gear up for the BOE rate announcements, the pair trades in negative territory slightly below 1.2400. BoE Interest Rate Decision Preview: Focus on vote split amid high inflation and economic gloom. USD/JPY struggled to make a decisive move in either direction on Wednesday and closed the day flat. The pair clings to modest daily gains above 135.70 in the European morning. USD/CHF slumped to its lowest level since late March at 0.9216 late Wednesday but managed to stage a rebound. The pair holds above 0.9250 so far on Thursday. The SNB is expected to raise the policy rate by 50 bps to 1% but some experts think that the bank could opt for a 75 bps hike instead. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM Bitcoin rose to its highest level in over a month near $18,400 on Wednesday but erased its daily gains before closing flat below $18,000. BTC/USD edges lower early Thursday and trades near $17,700. Ethereum lost nearly 1% on Wednesday and is already down more than 1% on Thursday, trading slightly below $1,300.
Serious liquidity crisis? According to Franklin Templeton, a massive, but unlikely deposit flight from Credit Suisse would have to happen

The SNB will want further nominal appreciation in 2023

ING Economics ING Economics 15.12.2022 12:27
  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised its key rate by 50bp as expected, bringing the total monetary tightening to 175bp. The upward revision of medium-term inflation forecasts signals a further rate hike in March A 50bp hike As widely expected, the SNB decided to raise its key rate by 50bp to 1% – following the 75bp increase in September and the 50bp increase in June – to combat the spread of inflationary pressures. The total monetary tightening in Switzerland will therefore have been 175bp in 2022, compared with probably 250bp in the eurozone and 425bp in the United States over the same period. The SNB also indicated that it is prepared to continue to be active in the foreign exchange market. In recent months, the SNB has sold foreign currencies, which has helped to strengthen the appreciation of the Swiss franc and limit imported inflation.  Read next: From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level | FXMAG.COM Inflation expectations are above the medium-term target After years of fighting deflation with a very accommodating monetary policy, the SNB remains very uncomfortable with the current level of inflation, despite the stabilisation at 3%, down from the peak of 3.5% reached in August. It believes that "inflation remains well above the range that the SNB equates with price stability", which is between 0% and 2%, and that "while developments are pleasing, it is too early to let our guard down". Thanks to a more favourable energy mix, a lower share of energy in consumption, and above all the appreciation of the Swiss franc, which limits imported inflation, inflation in Switzerland is nevertheless much lower than in neighbouring countries. That said, the SNB considers that the risk of second-round effects is still present, which is why "it cannot be ruled out that further rate hikes will be necessary to ensure price stability in the medium term". The SNB's inflation forecast shows inflation at 2.1% at the end of its forecast horizon, the third quarter of 2025. It believes that "increased inflationary pressure from abroad and the spread of price increases to the various categories of goods and services in the consumer price index will push this forecast higher in the medium term". The SNB now expects inflation to average 2.9% in 2022, 2.4% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024. These above-target inflation forecasts for the end of the forecast horizon signal that the SNB is not done with monetary tightening. We believe that a further 50bp rate hike could take place at the next meeting in March 2023, taking the rate to 1.5%. Rates will then remain stable for an extended period. Indeed, we expect price growth to decelerate gradually but slowly over the year. This will make it more comfortable for the SNB to intervene in the foreign exchange market afterwards, without changing the interest rate further. FX: SNB confirms it has been selling FX reserves recently In today’s communication, SNB President Thomas Jordan confirmed that the SNB had been intervening in FX markets to sell FX over recent months. This has got nothing to do with the SNB wanting to downsize its FX reserves for financial stability reasons, but everything to do with monetary policy. Here Jordan confirmed that a stronger Swiss franc has helped ensure that less inflation has been imported from abroad. This is all in keeping with this year’s policy of wanting to keep the real Swiss franc stable. To achieve that – and given that Swiss inflation is substantially lower than that overseas – the SNB requires nominal Swiss franc appreciation. The SNB confirmed the nominal franc has appreciated 4% this year. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM On the assumption that inflation differentials between Switzerland and its trading partners do not immediately narrow, we assume that the SNB will want further nominal appreciation in 2023. The big question is through which channels this occurs. The recent sharp fall in USD/CHF has taken the pressure off the EUR/CHF axis to make the adjustment. But if we are right with our call for the dollar to strengthen into the first quarter of 2023, then EUR/CHF will have to come lower – helped in part by SNB intervention. Our call is that EUR/CHF continues to struggle to hold any gains over 0.99 and heads back to the 0.95 area into next spring. Read this article on THINK TagsSwitzerland SNB Inflation CHF Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
US stocks gain on hopes of a softer inflation print released later today

Nasdaq decreased thanks to central banks hawkishness, so does Kiwi

Jing Ren Jing Ren 16.12.2022 08:31
USDCHF attempts to bottom out The Swiss franc retreated after the SNB raised its policy interest rate by 50 basis points as expected. On the daily chart, the US counterpart is testing last April’s lows near 0.9220 after giving up all gains from the most part of this year. As the RSI shows a bullish divergence in this demand zone, bargain hunters have scooped the bottom but the mood is too cautious to warrant a reversal yet. 0.9380 is the first hurdle ahead and its breach would ease the downward pressure. Failing that, the dollar could tank below 0.9220. NZDUSD drifts lower The New Zealand dollar slipped after the Fed stressed on keeping the interest rates high for longer. The kiwi’s break above the August high of 0.6460 has helped improve sentiment. Now the bulls will need to consolidate their foothold before they could push higher. A fall below the origin of the latest bullish candle suggests a lack of follow-through, and in conjunction with signs of overextension from the overbought RSI, may prompt buyers to take profit. 0.6300 is the closest support and 0.6460 a fresh resistance. NAS 100 breaks major support The Nasdaq 100 plunged as global central banks' hawkishness rattled investors. The choppy price action was due to multiple catalysts this week and layers of resistance from last September’s sell-off. The most recent rally reversed its course at 12200, a support-turned-resistance from mid-September. A breach of the lower end (11500) of the consolidation confirmed a lack of buying interest and might cause a test of the origin of a previous bullish breakout at 11150. As the RSI goes oversold, 11800 is a fresh hurdle in case of a bounce.
Analysis Of The USD/CHF Pair Movements

Even if Switzerland's 3% inflation is quite low, it's still above the target

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 16.12.2022 16:45
SNB raises rates by 50 bp, Swiss franc rises Major central banks were in the spotlight this week, as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised rates by 50 basis points at their final meeting of the year. These moves overshadowed a 50 bp rate increase by the Swiss National Bank, where rate moves are unusual – this week’s rate increase, which brought the benchmark rate to 1.0%, was only the third hike this year. The driver behind the rate hike was the all-familiar battle to curb inflation. Switzerland’s inflation rate of 3% pales in comparison to the eurozone (10.0%) or the US (7.1%), but is above the SNB’s target of 0-2%. The SNB has been aggressive, raising rates by 50 bp in June and an oversize 75-bp hike in September. After years of negative rates, the Bank has dramatically changed policy, responding to what it called a “challenging situation” in a press release after the meeting. The SNB also reminded the markets that it was “willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary”.  The Bank has not hesitated in the past to intervene in order to prevent the Swiss franc from climbing too high and damaging the export sector. USD/CHF has declined over 7% since November 1st, and the SNB will be watching to see if the Swiss franc’s appreciation continues. Read next: The Cable Market (GBP/USD) Held Back Bearish Enthusiasm, The ECB President Christine Lagarde Gave Support To The Euro| FXMAG.COM The markets are still digesting the Fed’s hawkish stance at this week’s meeting. Actually, anyone who has been listening to Jerome Powell and FOMC members would see that the Fed reiterated that it would continue to raise rates and that inflation remained far too high. The markets, however, have been marching to their own beat, expecting that a series of soft inflation reports might change the Fed’s tune. There was talk of the Fed winding up its current rate cycle in February, but the rate statement dampened such hopes, stating that the Fed expected “”ongoing increases” in interest rates.” Powell dismissed the recent drop in inflation, saying more evidence was required that the downward trend was sustainable. It seems a given after this hawkish meeting that the terminal rate is likely to rise above 5%, with some forecasts projecting that rates will go as high as 5.6%. USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.9285. The next resistance line is at 0.9372 There is support at 0.9228 and 0.9144   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Swiss franc reverses slide after SNB hike - MarketPulseMarketPulse
The USD/CHF Pair Is Likely To Decline More

The USD/CHF Pair Is Expected To Weaken Further

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 19.12.2022 09:18
USD/CHF remains pressured near intraday low, prints the first daily loss in three. Multiple supports stand tall to challenge sellers even as looming bear cross on MACD signal further downside. 200-HMA, two-week-old descending trend line guard immediate upside. USD/CHF holds lower ground near the intraday bottom as bears struggle to retake control, after a two-day leave, during early Monday. That said, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair prints mild losses near 0.9320 by the press time. The quote’s latest weakness could be linked to the U-turn from a fortnight-long descending resistance line, as well as the 200-HMA. Also keeping the USD/CHF bears hopeful is the looming bear cross on the MACD indicator. However, the downside moves remain unconvincing to the pair bears unless the quote stays beyond the previous resistance line from November 30, close to the 0.9300 threshold by the press time. Also challenging the USD/CHF bulls is an upward-sloping trend line from the last Wednesday, around 0.9280 at the latest. In a case where the quote remains bearish below 0.9280, the odds of witnessing a downturn toward the monthly low near 0.9215 can’t be ruled out. On the flip side, buyers need to keep the reins past 0.9350 to mark their dominance. In doing so, the quote should stay past the aforementioned immediate resistance line and the 200-HMA. Following that, a run-up towards the 0.9400 threshold and then to the monthly high 0.9470 can’t be ruled out. USD/CHF: Hourly chart Trend: Further weakness expected
The USD/CHF Pair Is All Set To Revisit The Monthly Low

The USD/CHF Pair Ended In The Red On Wednesday

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 22.12.2022 08:59
USD/CHF takes offers to refresh intraday low, down for the fourth consecutive day. US Dollar traces a pullback in Treasury yields amid mixed sentiment, holiday mood. Firmer US data allowed greenback to recover but hawkish statements in SNB quarterly report challenged USD/CHF bulls. US GDP, PCE details will be crucial for short-term directions amid holiday mood. USD/CHF sellers keep the reins around the mid-0.9200s as they refresh intraday low during a four-day downtrend early Thursday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) pair bounced off it's weekly low the previous day before retreating from 0.9290. Even so, the quote ended Wednesday on a negative note as hawkish details of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) quarterly report jostled with the mixed US data. “The level of uncertainty associated with the (Swiss GDP) forecast is still high,” said the SNB in its quarterly economic upside the previous day. The SNB also mentioned that inflation will remain elevated for the time being. On the other hand, the US Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence jumped to the eight-month high of 108.3 for December, compared to the market forecasts of 101.0 and the revised prior readings of 101.40. However, the US Existing Home Sales for November, 4.09M MoM compared to 4.2M expected and 4.43M prior. Elsewhere, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s US visit and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s readiness to increase the country’s military potential challenge the risk appetite. Additionally, the Bank of Japan’s second unscheduled bond buying and a retreat in the US Treasury yields recently exerted downside pressure on the US Dollar and weigh on the USD/CHF prices. Given the latest US Dollar pullback and the holiday mood, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) details for Q3 will be important for immediate directions. Forecasts suggest that the US GDP will confirm 2.9% Annualized growth in Q3 while the Core PCE is anticipated to also meet the initial forecasts of 4.6% QoQ during the stated period. Technical analysis A sustained U-turn from the 10-DMA hurdle, around 0.9300 by the press time, directs USD/CHF towards a five-week-old descending resistance line, near 0.9175.
Analysis Of The USD/CHF Pair Movements

The USD/CHF Market’s Cautious Mood Ahead Of The Key US Data

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 23.12.2022 08:57
USD/CHF grinds higher after rising the most in a week, lacks upside momentum of late. US Dollar cheers firmer data, hawkish Fed bets and US President Biden’s comments. Headlines surrounding China, Russia flash mixed clues amid sluggish session. US Core PCE Price Index, Durable Goods Orders will be crucial for the bulls to keep reins. USD/CHF seesaws around intraday high as traders await fresh clues during early Friday. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair portrays the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key US data, despite defending the US Dollar's strength. Also challenging the pair bulls could be the mixed macros and the year-end season that knocks on the door. Optimism over China’s pro-growth policies recently gained momentum after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) marked the biggest weekly cash injection in two months. The same joins the policymakers’ pledge to defend the world’s second-largest economy to overcome the Covid-inflicted pessimism via more stimulus. It’s worth noting that the chatters surrounding Evergrande’s nearness to an offshore debt restructuring plan also underpin the cautious optimism in the markets. On the other hand, a rally in Shanghai’s hospitalization and challenges to China’s medical system due to the latest easing of the Zero-Covid policy seems to probe the optimists. Further, the US Senate’s passage of a $1.7 trillion government funding bill and the latest comments from US President Joe Biden showing readiness to tame inflation keeps USD/CHF buyers hopeful. It should be noted that an increase in the hawkish Fed bets, backed by Thursday’s US data, also underpins the USD/CHF upside. That said, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the third quarter (Q3), per the final readings of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), versus 2.9% previous estimates. Further, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices match 4.3% QoQ estimations during Q3 2022 whereas the Core PCE improved to 4.7% QoQ versus 4.6% market forecasts. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains while ignoring the Wall Street benchmarks. Further, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields extend the previous day’s rebound near the one-month high, marked early in the week. Looking forward, USD/CHF traders may pay attention to the risk catalysts ahead of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) - Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, as well as Durable Goods Orders, for November. As per the market consensus, the US Core PCE Price Index remains unchanged at 0.2% MoM. However, the Annualized forecasts suggest softer figures of 4.7% YoY versus 5.0% previous readings. Further, US Durable Goods Orders could register a contraction of 0.6% in November compared to the previous increase of 1.1% (revised from 1.0%). Given the mixed forecasts for the key data, as well as the recent improvement in sentiment, the USD/CHF buyers should remain cautious. Technical analysis A daily closing break of the 13-day-old resistance line, now support around the 0.9300 threshold, keeps USD/CHF buyers hopeful of poking the monthly resistance line, around 0.9400 by the press time.
Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply

The Kiwi (NZD) Saw A Sharp Further Run To The Downside Yesterday, The EUR/GBP Pair Tests The Highs

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 23.12.2022 14:26
Summary:  After Q3 GDP data revision that reminds us that the UK is in the vanguard for economies lurching into recession, sterling has lurched into a new slide and is even threatening a break down versus the euro as EURGBP tests the highs since the Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget sterling wipeout. Elsewhere, a plunge in the kiwi is likely down to position squaring and rebalancing ahead of year end after a remarkable recent run. Today's Special Edition Saxo Market Call podcast: Investors' Wish List for 2023.  FX Trading focus: Sterling stumbles after weak GDP, Kiwi longs take profit. Last important US data point of the year up today: November PCE inflation. The latest Q3 UK GDP revisions suggest the economy is weakening even more quickly than previously thought last quarter, as growth was revised down to -0.3% QoQ from -0.2% previously, and the Private Consumption figures was revised to -1.1% QoQ vs. -0.5% previously. The combination of a Bank of England that wants to soft-pedal further tightening and the promises of fiscal austerity from the Sunak-Hunt duo are a powerful negative for sterling as we look ahead into the New Year, which will likely bring relative UK economic weakness even if our thoughts that  recession fears for next year globally are over-baked for the first two and even three quarters. The FX fundamentals are entirely the opposite for the euro, as the ECB attempts a maximum hawkish stance as it recognizes the risks that the fiscal impulse can keep inflationary pressures elevated from here. The two-year yield spread is close to its highest since October of last year. Chart: EURGBPA weak GDP revision yesterday didn’t appear to be the proximate trigger for sterling’s latest lurch lower, but does remind us of the relative weakness of the UK outlook and the combination of a heel-dragging BoE (on further tightening) and austere fiscal picture could set up further declines in the weeks and months. Worth noting that the key EURGBP is pushing on the top side of the range established since the volatile days surrounding the Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget announcement. A hold above 0.8800 could lead to a test of the higher end of the range since the 2016 Brexit vote above 0.9200. A higher euro is straightforward if ECB maintains its hawkish stance as the EU fiscal impulse is far stronger from here. The wildcard for the euro side of the equation is the usual existential one of peripheral spreads and whether these stay orderly if yields resume their rise next year. Source: Saxo Group Elsewhere, the kiwi saw a sharp further run to the downside yesterday with no proximate identifiable trigger. AUDNZD traded all the way to 1.0719 before backing off to below 1.0650 at one point this morning. I suspect that this was an extension of the position squaring after a the remarkable run higher in the kiwi over the last two months, driven both by relative RBNZ hawkishness, but in particular by RBA (and arguably BoC), sparking heavy flows in AUDNZD just after the pair had traded almost to a decade high on hopes for a Chinese reopening boosting the outlook for Australia. The current reality on the ground in China is even worse than during the zero Covid tolerance days, but we know that the Arguably, recent record low consumer confidence readings in New Zealand suggest that the RBNZ will need to climb down from its hawkishness, at least in relative terms to its peers, going into next year. After an incredible slide in AUDNZD and rally in NZDCAD, I suspect we will see powerful mean reversion in the coming three months in those pairs. It feels like USD traders have checked out for this year. Hard to tell if today’s US November PCE inflation data can generate any excitement on a soft print after the soft CPI print earlier this month generated a lot of fuss that quickly faded on the very same day. A more interesting development would be a slightly hot core set of PCE core readings than expected today (the month-on-month core reading expected at +0.2% and year-on-year expected to have decelerated sharply to 4.6% from 5.0% in October. EURUSD has traded within a 100-pip range for more than a week and the 1-month implied volatility has recently plumbed lows (around 7.50%) not seen since the beginning of this year and would probably be lower still had not the Bank of Japan roiled markets this week. But the USD will have a hard time ignoring any further slide in risk sentiment to close out the year. And the beginning of the calendar year is nearly always interesting for new themes and often for demarcating key highs or lows for the year. Consider the following from the last six years of the EURUSD trading history: 2022: High for the year in EURUSD posted in February, but that high was only a few pips above the 1.1483 high water mark of January. Low for year posted in September 2021: High for the year was in January, on the third trading day of the year, low in late November 2020: Exceptional pandemic year, low for year posted in March, high in December 2019: High for quite year posted on January 10, low on October 1 2018: High for year posted in February, but highest daily close not above intraday high in January. Low posted in November 2017: Low for year in January, high in September (December high less than a figure from September high water mark) Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The JPY still sits with a strong positive reading, but has yet to “trend” after the huge one-day move this week – a few more days of lack of movement and questions marks would begin to flourish around its status. Elsewhere, note the NZD going full circle and now broadly outright weak after its status as king of the G10 as recently as less than two weeks ago. Gold posted a sharp reversal yesterday. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Note that the weakness in risk sensitive currencies like SEK, NZD, AUD & GBP are seeing those edging into a downtrend versus the US dollar – worth watching for a deepening of these moves if risk assets continue south into the New Year. The EURCHF bears watching if the pair can take out 0.9900-0.9950 as currently the pair is caught in a very tight range. NZD is rolling over in many pairings. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1330 – Canada Oct. GDP 1330 – US Nov. PCE Inflation 1330 – US Nov. Flash Durable Goods Orders 1500 – US Dec. Final University of Michigan Confidence   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-sterling-and-kiwi-stumble-as-year-winds-down-23122022
The USD/CHF Pair Returned To Its Previous Three-Day Recovery

The USD/CHF Pair Returned To Its Previous Three-Day Recovery

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.12.2022 13:23
The US dollar accelerates its downtrend and reaches levels below 0.9300. Hopes of a slowdown in Fed tightening are hurting the USD. News that China is easing covid restrictions further has boosted market mood. The US Dollar resumed its near-term downtrend against the Swiss Franc on Tuesday, with the pair extending its pullback from last week’s highs at 0.9345 to levels below 0.9300. The pair drops about 0.5% so far today, retracing the previous three day’s recovery. Hopes of Fed easing are hurting the Dollar US macroeconomic figures released last Friday have boosted hopes of a slowdown on the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening path in 2023, which has hurt demand for the Greenback. The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a gauge closely observed by the Fed to assess inflationary trends, eased in November for the third consecutive month, suggesting that the price pressures might have started a deceleration trend. Furthermore, consumer spending remained practically unchanged from the previous months. These figures pave the way for the Federal Reserve to ease its tightening path. On the other hand, Chinese authorities have announced the end of COVID-19 restrictions for inbound travelers. The National Health Committee assured that from January 8, quarantines for visitors to China will be scrapped, which has boosted risk appetite in an otherwise quiet post-Christmas market, adding selling pressure to the safe-haven USD.
Serious liquidity crisis? According to Franklin Templeton, a massive, but unlikely deposit flight from Credit Suisse would have to happen

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Has Shown That It Is Not Shy About Intervening In The Currency Markets

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 28.12.2022 14:08
Market activity is subdued on Wednesday in thin post-holiday trade. In the European session, USD/CHF is almost trading at 0.9280, down 0.14%. Over the final two months of the year, the Swiss franc has looked sharp against the US dollar. USD/CHF tumbled 5.6% in November and is down another 1.6% in December. The pair fell as low as 0.9215 on December 14th, its lowest level since April. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is keeping a close eye on the appreciation of the Swiss franc, as this makes Swiss exports more expensive. The SNB has shown that it is not shy about intervening in the currency markets if it believes that the Swissie exchange rate is too high. The SNB has joined the global tightening party in 2022, raising interest rates into positive territory after years of sub-zero rates. The SNB delivered an oversize rate of 0.50% earlier this month, bringing the cash rate to 1.00%. The central bank had an accommodative monetary policy in place for years in order to combat deflation. In the new era of rising inflation, the SNB has switched gears, with 175 basis points of tightening this year. Switzerland’s inflation rate of 3% is much lower than in the eurozone, but this is above the SNB’s target of 0-2%. At the December meeting, the SNB said it would not rule out further tightening, which will largely depend on inflation forecasts. If inflation does not ease, there is a strong likelihood of another rate hike in March. ZEW Economic Expectations climbs It’s a very light calendar this week in Switzerland, with just two events. Earlier today, ZEW Economic Expectations showed a strong improvement with a reading of -42.8 in December, up from -57.5 in November and above the consensus of -50.5 points. This is a step in the right direction, but the latest reading was the 10th straight in negative territory. On Friday, we’ll get a look at the KOF Economic Barometer, which has been on a downturn. The consensus stands at 86.9 for December, following 89.5 in November.  Read next: The Optimism Around China Easing Of Covid Protocols Has Cool Down, The Aussie Pair Is Trading Near 0.68| FXMAG.COM USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF is putting pressure on support at 0.9256. Below, there is support at 0.9159 There is resistance at 0.9377 and 0.9498 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Source: https://www.marketpulse.com/20221228/swiss-franc-showing-strength/    
The USD/CHF Pair Is All Set To Revisit The Monthly Low

The USD/CHF Pair's Bears Have A Challenge

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 29.12.2022 08:52
USD/CHF prints three-day losing streak, renews intraday low of late. Swiss ZEW Survey – Expectations improved in December to -42.8. Lack of market’s confidence in the US Dollar’s recovery favors bears amid mostly downbeat sentiment. Yields refreshed multi-day top on China, Russia concerns before easing amid a lackluster trading session. USD/CHF takes offers to refresh intraday low around 0.9267 as it cheers the US Dollar pullback amid inactive markets during the holiday season. In doing so, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair fails to justify the previous day’s Doji candlestick amid firmer Swiss ZEW Survey numbers for December. As per the latest Swiss ZEW Survey – Expectations, the sentiment gauge improved in December to -42.8 versus the -50.5 forecasts and -57.5 previous readings. On the other hand, US Pending Home Sales for November dropped to -37.8% YoY versus -36.7% expected and -37.0% prior while Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December improved to 1.0 versus -4.0 anticipated and -9.0 prior. Also weighing on the quote could be the latest retreat in the US Treasury yields, which in turn weigh on the US Dollar. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields drop 2.8 basis points to 3.858% by the press time, after rising the most since October 19 the previous day. While the market’s consolidation and a lack of major data could be held responsible for the USD/CHF pair’s latest weakness, the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) safe-haven appeal and recently firmer data seem to favor the bears amid receding hawkish bias over the Fed. That said, news from Reuters suggesting inconsistent virus details from Beijing and multiple economies announcing fresh testing requirements from China previously weighed on the market sentiment and propelled the US Treasury yields. “China reported three new COVID-related deaths for Tuesday, up from one for Monday - numbers that are inconsistent with what funeral parlors are reporting, as well as with the experience of much less populous countries after they re-opened,” reported Reuters. Additionally challenging the risk takers is Russia’s rejection of peace with Ukraine unless it accepts the treaty allowing additional territories, as well as an escalated war in the city of Kherson. Against this backdrop, stocks in the Asia-Pacific region trade mixed while the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains, despite the downbeat closing of the Wall Street benchmarks. Moving on, the USD/CHF pair may witness the continuation of the latest moves amid a likely absence of major data/events. Even so, the US Initial Jobless Claims, Treasury yields and headlines surrounding Russia, as well as China, should be eyed for intraday directions. Technical analysis Wednesday’s Doji candlestick and a two-week-old ascending support line, close to 0.9235 by the press time, challenge USD/CHF bears. Recovery moves, however, remain elusive unless crossing the 21-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.9330.
Analysis Of The USD/CHF Pair Movements

Further Downside Of The USD/CHF Pair Is Expected

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.01.2023 09:11
USD/CHF picks up bids to pare recent losses around the lowest levels since March 2022. Bearish MACD signals, failure to cross the support-turned-resistance signal further downside. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level guards immediate upside, bears can aim for previous yearly bottom. USD/CHF traders lick their wounds around the 10-month low, picking up bids to 0.9210 amid early Tuesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair might have taken clues from the downbeat RSI (14) to pare recent losses. However, the bearish MACD signals keep the sellers hopeful. Additionally favoring the bearish bias could be the quote’s previous failure to jump back beyond the support-turned-resistance line from January 2021, close to 0.9420 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s upside from January 2021 to October 2022, around 0.9290, restricts immediate recovery moves of the USD/CHF pair ahead of the previous support line near 0.9420. Also acting as an upside filter is the August 2022 low of 0.9370 and 50% Fibonacci retracement near 0.9450. Should the USD/CHF bulls keep the reins past 0.9450, the odds of witnessing a reversal to the late 2022 downtrend can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the year 2022 low of 0.9090 appears immediate important support to watch during the USD/CHF pair’s further downside. Following that, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9055 could lure the bears ahead of highlighting the 0.9000 psychological magnet. In a case where the USD/CHF pair remains weak past 0.9000, the mid-2021 low of 0.8926 and the year 2021 bottom surrounding 0.8755 will be in the spotlight. USD/CHF: Weekly chart Trend: Further downside expected
The USD/CHF Pair Is All Set To Revisit The Monthly Low

The USD/CHF Pair Is All Set To Revisit The Monthly Low

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 11.01.2023 09:24
USD/CHF takes offers to refresh intraday bottom, fades bounce off nine-month low. Downside break of weekly support line, bear cross underpin downside bias. Recovery moves remain elusive unless crossing 0.9275 hurdle. USD/CHF breaks an upward-sloping trend line to welcome bears after the previous day’s brief absence. That said, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair renews its intraday low around 0.9210 during the early hours of Wednesday morning in Europe. In addition to the downside break of the two-day-old support line, USD/CHF also cheers bear cross of the key moving averages on the hourly format. The bearish moving average crossover could be witnessed as the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA) slips beneath the 200-HMA. It's worth noting that an absence of oversold RSI also signals a smooth road to the south for the pair sellers. As a result, the USD/CHF pair is all set to revisit the monthly low surrounding 0.9165, which is also the lowest level since March 2022. In a case where the bears keep reins past 0.9165, the 0.9100 round figure and the previous yearly low around 0.9090 will gain the market’s attention. Read next: The EUR/USD Pair Is Still Above 1.0700$, The USD/JPY Pair Was Little Changed| FXMAG.COM On the contrary, the support-turned-resistance line stretched from Monday, around 0.9230 by the press time, guards immediate recovery of the USD/CHF pair. Following that, a three-day-old trend line resistance near 0.9255 could test the pair buyers. However, the USD/CHF bulls may remain cautious unless witnessing a clear upside break of the key HMA convergence surrounding 0.9275. USD/CHF: Hourly chart Trend: Further downside expected  
FX: The SNB Is Getting Its Stronger Swiss Franc Via Gains Against The Dollar

FX: The SNB Is Getting Its Stronger Swiss Franc Via Gains Against The Dollar

ING Economics ING Economics 12.01.2023 09:24
FX markets today see one of the most highly awaited data points of the month - US CPI. The last two soft releases were the foundation for the fourth quarter rally in risk assets and today's release should determine whether this year's rally - and the decline in the dollar - continue. Next week's Bank of Japan meeting is also in focus as is strength in EUR/CHF EUR: Sowing some independent strength The euro showed some independent strength yesterday and had quite a strong rally against European currencies - especially the Swiss franc (see below). Some tried to link that rally to a story that Germany would support fresh EU bond issuance to support state aid in Europe's fight against US green subsidies in its Inflation Reduction Act. That linkage seems a little far-fetched and European peripheral debt barely budged on the story. But we are still seeing eurozone equity outperformance, which must be providing the euro with some good support. For today, the FX options market prices a 90 pip EUR/USD range for the CPI release. Assuming no upside surprises in CPI, the EUR/USD direction of travel looks towards the 1.09 area. 1.0660/1.0700 might well contain any downside today. Chris Turner USD: December CPI to determine whether risk rally continues It has been a relatively good start to the year for risk assets. Global equity indices are up around 3.7%, led by Europe. Bond indices are up a decent 2-3% and emerging market assets are in demand, with EM local currency bond indices up close to 3%. This environment of money being put to work has weighed on the defensive dollar, which is softer against many emerging market currencies and quite a few G10 currencies. This benign environment has been secured partially on the back of soft US price and activity data. Softer US price data has come both in the form of hard data and through surveys. Today sees the release of the December US CPI. Expectations are that the core will be rising at a relatively subdued 0.3% month-on-month pace and 5.7% year-on-year. This compares to 0.6/0.7% MoM readings last summer. As always, there are many moving parts in the data. For example, will medical costs and used car prices continue to drag the number lower? And does it remain too early to expect lower rental prices to drag shelter costs - a big component - down? Recently, the Federal Reserve has been highlighting that it is focused on the core services inflation reading ex-housing. So let us see what that number offers today. ING's US James Knightley is on consensus forecasting the 0.3% MoM/5.7% YoY reading. A number in line with consensus probably allows the risk rally to continue. Expectations of a Fed easing cycle in the second half of the year, China reopening and lower energy prices are all encouraging this reallocation towards risk and should today's CPI number oblige, DXY could make a move towards the 102 area. Any upside surprise in the number could see DXY bounce to the 104.00/104.25 area, but we doubt it would completely spell the end for the better risk/softer dollar environment. Chris Turner JPY: Bank of Japan meetings are all live USD/JPY sold off in early Asia on a local media report that the Bank of Japan could again review its JGB yield target at next week's meeting. The report suggested December's widening of the JGB yield target band might not have been enough to address the BoJ's concerns over bond market functioning. The report also suggested that the BoJ would raise its fiscal 2023 and 2024 inflation ex-food forecast to 2% - effectively signalling the end of its deflation fears. This comes at a time of much focus on a pick-up in wages in Japan and a more sustainable rise in inflation. The FX options market prices a 1.3% range for USD/JPY today, where a benign US data print could send USD/JPY back to this year's low at 129.50. Next week's BoJ meeting means that any upside should be limited to the 132.60/133.00 area. Chris Turner CHF: Wrong We had been forecasting a lower EUR/CHF this year on the view that the Swiss National Bank wanted a stronger nominal Swiss franc to fight inflation. Instead, EUR/CHF yesterday broke above 1.00. There are probably two factors driving the move. The first is that USD/CHF is a lot lower, meaning that the SNB is getting its stronger Swiss franc via gains against the dollar and does not need it a lot stronger against the euro. The second is that the hawkish European Central Bank and the further 125bp of tightening expected will out-tighten the SNB. Given that it looks like the dollar will stay offered for the time being and the ECB looks unlikely to relent on its hawkishness, this trend to a higher EUR/CHF may remain in place. However, we doubt the SNB would want to see a big rally this early and the move may stall in the 1.0070/1.0100 area. We had thought EUR/CHF could trade to 0.95 this summer, but it looks like we will have to revise up those forecasts. Chris Turner  Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Analysis Of The USD/CHF Pair Movements

Mixed Moods In The Market Are An Additional Force To The USD/CHF Pair's Pullback Movements

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.01.2023 08:54
USD/CHF takes offers to reverse the week-start rebound. DXY retreats despite firmer Treasury bond yields, sour sentiment as full markets return. Updates from Davos can entertain traders ahead of US Retail Sales. USD/CHF holds lower ground near the intraday bottom of 0.9243 as European traders brace for an active Tuesday, mainly due to the return of the US market players after a long weekend. Adding strength to the pair’s pullback moves could be the mixed sentiment in the market, which in turn probes the US dollar’s rebound from a multi-month low. That said, the market’s skepticism about Chinese growth numbers joins the lack of major data/events, as well as fears of recession, to weigh on the risk profile. The same underpins the US Treasury yields’ rebound, as well as weighs on the S&P 500 Futures as it retreats from the one-month high. “Two-thirds of private and public sector chief economists surveyed by the WEF expect a global recession this year, with some 18% considering it ‘extremely likely’ - more than twice as many as in the previous survey conducted in September 2022,” reported Reuters. On the same line, China reported upbeat prints of the fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as well as Industrial Production and Retail Sales for December. However, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) from Beijing mentioned that the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet, which in turn weighed on the risk profile afterward. Alternatively, receding fears of the Fed’s monetary policy contraction, especially after the recently mixed US data, allow traders to remain hopeful ahead of this week’s key data, namely US Retail Sales for December, expected 0.1% YoY versus -0.6% prior. Ahead of that, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for January, expected -4.5 versus -11.2 prior, may entertain traders while updates from Davos could offer additional hints to the USD/CHF pair traders. Technical analysis Despite the latest weakness, the USD/CHF pair is yet to defy the previous day’s bullish signals, flashed via the Doji candlestick on the Daily formation, which in turn keeps the pair buyers hopeful of poking a one-week-old resistance line near 0.9320 by the press time. Alternatively, Monday’s low of 0.9218 puts a floor under short-term declines of the pair.
The USD/CHF Pair Is Likely To Decline More

The USD/CHF Pair Is Likely To Decline More

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 23.01.2023 08:42
USD/CHF consolidation the biggest daily gains in over a week. Two-week-old descending trend line, 200-HMA guard immediate upside. Bearish MACD signals back the failure to cross key hurdles and direct sellers towards immediate support line. USD/CHF holds lower ground as it extends the previous day’s pullback to snap a two-day uptrend around 0.9180 on early Monday. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair also justifies the bearish MACD signals while approaching an ascending support line from last Wednesday, close to 0.9160 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the quote’s weakness past 0.9160 will make it vulnerable to refreshing the monthly low, currently around 0.9085. As a result, August 2021 low near 0.9020 and the 0.9000 psychological magnet could gain the USD/CHF bear’s attention past 0.9160. If at all the USD/CHF pair remains bearish past 0.9000, the June 2021 bottom around 0.8925 and the year 2021 trough of 0.8757 will be in focus. On the flip side, a convergence of the downward-sloping resistance line from January 06 and the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA), close to 0.9230-35, could challenge short-term USD/CHF recovery. Following that, a run-up towards 0.9365 and the monthly high near 0.9410 can’t be ruled out. In a case where USD/CHF remains firmer past 0.9410, the late November 2022 swing high around 0.9600 will be in focus as it acts as the last defense of the pair sellers. Overall, USD/CHF is likely to decline more but the downside room appears limited. USD/CHF: Hourly chart Trend: Further downside expected
Analysis Of The USD/CHF Pair Movements

Analysis Of The USD/CHF Pair Movements

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 24.01.2023 08:54
USD/CHF prints mild losses during the first daily fall in three. Mixed sentiment, pre-data anxiety joins China-linked optimism to weigh on USD/CHF prices. US inflation expectations, hawkish central banks keep the buyers hopeful. Off in China, Fed’s blackout restrict immediate moves but US PMIs, Q4 GDP are more important for clear directions. USD/CHF sellers return to the table, after a two-day absence, in early Tuesday. That said, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the market’s consolidation amid a cautious mood ahead of the key data/events from Switzerland and the US. Also keeping the sellers hopeful could be the broad US Dollar weakness amid cautious optimism and sluggish performance. That said, China’s Lunar New Year holidays join the pre-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period for the Fed policymakers to restrict the market’s immediate moves. Even so, the US Dollar fades from the previous day’s corrective bounce as softer US data on Monday backed dovish bias from the US central bank. On Monday, softer prints of the US Conference Board’s Leading Index for December joined the lines of previous downbeat data from the US and signaled to ease inflation fears in the world’s largest economy, which in turn suggests less need for the Fed to be hawkish in February. It’s worth noting that the market players do expect a softer Fed rate hike in February and policy pivot afterward, which in turn weigh on the US Dollar. Alternatively, the US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, rise for the third consecutive day to 2.28% each and justify the pre-blackout hawkish Fed comments and challenge the sentiment. Furthermore, news that the US confronts China over companies’ ties to the Russian war effort, shared by Bloomberg, joins the talks surrounding the US debt ceiling in the Senate to probe the market optimists. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures resist following Wall Street’s gains while retreating from the six-week high marked the previous day, making rounds to 4,030-35 at the latest. On the same line, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields snap three-day recovery moves by struggling around 3.51% and 4.21% by the press time. Given the USD/CHF pair’s consolidation amid mixed clues, the upcoming Swiss trade numbers for December and the first readings of January’s S&P Global PMIs for the US will be important for intraday traders. However, major attention will be given to the US fourth-quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be the key amid recession woes. Should the US data keep coming softer, the US Dollar could refresh the multi-month low marked earlier in January, which in turn will weigh on the USD/CHF prices. Technical analysis A 12-day-old bearish channel restricts USD/CHF moves between 0.9035 and 0.9270.  
Analysis Of USD/CHF Pair: The Swiss Currency Pair Rebounds

Analysis Of USD/CHF Pair: The Swiss Currency Pair Rebounds

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.01.2023 09:21
USD/CHF picks up bids to extend the previous day’s rebound from weekly low. Convergence of 200-SMA, support-turned-resistance line and a descending trend line from early January appears tough nut to crack for bulls. Impending bull cross on MACD, sustained bounce off 23.6% Fibonacci retracement suggest further recovery. USD/CHF grinds higher past 0.9200, mildly bid while extending the previous day’s rebound from the week’s low during early Friday. In doing so, the Swiss currency pair rebounds from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of its January 06-18 downside, near 0.9160 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the looming bull cross on the MACD adds strength to the USD/CHF rebound from 0.9160 support, which in turn signals further advances of the pair. As a result, the 200-SMA, downward-sloping resistance line from early January and the one-week-old previous support line, close to 0.9255-60, appear the key hurdle for the USD/CHF bulls before retaking control. In a case where the pair rises past 0.9260, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the monthly high near 0.9410 can’t be ruled out. However, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.9285 and the 0.9300 round figure may act as intermediate halts during the expected rally. Alternatively, pullback moves need to conquer the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 0.9160 to retake control. Following that, a downward trajectory towards the monthly low surrounding 0.9085 can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that the USD/CHF weakness past 0.9085 makes it vulnerable to declining toward the August 2021 low near 0.9020. Read next: Trump Returns To Social Media, Meta Will Restore The Former President's Account| FXMAG.COM USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited recovery expected
Serious liquidity crisis? According to Franklin Templeton, a massive, but unlikely deposit flight from Credit Suisse would have to happen

The SNB Had Reduced Its Foreign Exchange Reserves And CHF Slipped Below The Parity Against The Euro For The First Time

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 31.01.2023 15:04
The past year has been difficult for everyone, especially those invested in financial markets. Moreover, if you are a central bank with a large amount of money, there may be few viable investment opportunities. While a private investor may choose to "sit this one out", central banks may not have that option due to monetary policy and other reasons. Summary Swiss National Bank has reported a loss of 132 billion CHF for the first three quarters of 2022 – 5 times larger than the previous record.  Over the years, SNB had engaged in aggressive foreign exchange purchases accumulating a 1.05 trillion CHF balance sheet intending to keep the Swiss franc from appreciating.  The large exposure to foreign assets suffered massive losses during the first three quarters of 2022 as most currencies, fixed-income securities, as well as equities depreciated.  Due to this, SNB has already announced that it will not be able to provide the annual payout to the Swiss government and cantons (for the second time only since 1908).  Questions remain - will this change investors' view of the franc as a safe haven and is the SNB planning to make changes to its current monetary and investment policy that will not lead to such a loss? Swiss National Bank surprised everyone with the most significant loss in its history, posting an annual loss of around 132 billion CHF, more than 5 times the previous record. Source: Bloomberg Why did it happen? The bulk of the loss - 131 billion Swiss francs - came from the collapse in the value of foreign currency investments accumulated over decades of buying to weaken the national currency.  Indeed, Switzerland has continuously invested large sums in foreign exchange markets and bought foreign equities to keep the franc from appreciating. After the EUR/CHF exchange rate fell from 1.67 in November 2007 to 1.12 in July 2011, the SNB announced that it had decided to do whatever was necessary to keep the EUR/CHF exchange rate above 1.20. Looking back, we know that "whatever it takes" amounted to almost 300 billion CHF until early 2015 when the 1.20 exchange rate ceiling was abandoned.  The last hit was the Covid-19 pandemic which pushed Switzerland to spend 110 billion CHF on the foreign currency markets while trying to apply brakes on the Swiss franc's appreciation as investors fled to safer currencies and other assets. In fact, as a result, the US labeled Switzerland a currency manipulator due to its aggressive foreign exchange market interventions. The US has not been the only country to express objections to Switzerland's activities to keep its currency from appreciating. During its 1.20 exchange rate pledge, it started purchasing German government bonds pushing their yields into negative territory. Graph: investing.com, comments: author As a result of the aggressive policy of the Swiss National Bank, it accumulated enormous amounts of foreign currencies and other assets on its balance sheet. By the end of 2021, the SNB's balance sheet exceeded 1.05 trillion CHF, which equals 144% of the country's GDP. To put this into perspective, the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet at the time was only 34% of the country's GDP, ECB's balance sheet – 67%, and China's – 32%. Since then, the SNB has started to reduce its balance sheet - by December 2022, SNB had reduced its foreign exchange reserves to 784 billion CHF. That affected the national currency, which slipped below the parity against the euro for the first time in history (except one day when the 1.20 rate limit was renounced). SNB's holdings Now, the considerable exposure to foreign currency holdings does not induce losses per se. But last year, financial markets wiped out not one fund and portfolio. And in times like these, it is more important than ever to be well diversified. At the end of the third quarter of 2022, the SNB's foreign exchange holdings included mainly fixed-income securities, equity securities, and cash. At the end of 2021 – before the plunge in the US tech sector – SNB held US stocks worth 166 billion USD, including shares in Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, Meta, and others. Source: Swiss National Bank interim results The above graph shows that all key foreign currencies depreciated against the Swiss franc, except the US dollar. Unfortunately, nearly half of the investments in the US dollar were through US stocks, which greatly lost value during this period.  Furthermore, last year was unique because bonds, typically considered a safer alternative to equities during downturn periods, fell together with riskier assets due to increasing interest rates. In total, during the first three quarters of 2022, Swiss National Bank reported a loss of 70.9 billion CHF due to price fluctuations in bonds, a loss of 54.2 billion CHF due to price fluctuations in equities, and an additional loss of 24.4 billion CHF related to exchange rate changes. The full-year report is expected to be published in March 2023. What now? The Swiss cantons are tightening their belts. As a result of the large loss, not only the bank's shareholders will not receive the awaited payments in the form of dividends. Swiss National Bank will not be able to make its yearly payment to the government and cantons. Although the SNB's annual payments tend to fluctuate widely and are not binding, many of the 26 cantons have already started to adjust their spending plans for this year to reflect the lack of payment. Read next: AUD/USD Pair Remains Under Strong Selling Pressure, The EUR/USD Pair Has Been Falling But Remains Above 1.08$| FXMAG.COM Does this affect Switzerland's attractiveness in the eyes of investors? The conclusions drawn by the SNB and investors may be different and uncertain. It is possible that the SNB has abandoned its target of a EUR/CHF rate above 1.20. We can see that although the exchange rate is well below this level, SNB has stopped increasing its balance sheet (potentially due to the harsh earnings results at the end of Q3). The Swiss National Bank's large loss may also be a lesson to other central banks that it is challenging (if not impossible) to regulate the value of the national currency, especially by acting alone, and even more so when the currency represents a negligible part of the world's foreign exchange reserves.    While some investors may have had an impression that the Swiss franc’s value is being affected by its central bank already before, recent developments and the extreme loss of the SNB have attracted the attention of a myriad of investors all around the world. It may lead to investors rethinking their opinion of the Swiss franc as a stable, safe currency that can be trusted during turbulent times.  Furthermore, it will certainly be interesting to monitor the Swiss National Bank and whether or not it chooses to amend its monetary policy to avoid similar situations in the future.    Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76.41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
SNB stands firm in the face of market turbulence with 50bp rate hike

The USD/CHF Pair Is Expected A Further Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.02.2023 10:00
USD/CHF remains on the back foot despite latest inaction. Sustained break of fortnight-old ascending trend line, U-turn from 200-EMA favor sellers. Buyers need successful trading below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement to retake control. USD/CHF holds lower ground near 0.9160 during early Wednesday, following a clear downside break of the previous key support line. The Swiss currency (CHF) pair’s latest inaction could be linked to the market’s cautious mood ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. However, the bearish MACD signals and a U-turn from the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) seem to join the trend line break to keep sellers hopeful. That said, multiple lows marked during January 18-20, close to 0.9150-45, seem to restrict the immediate downside of the USD/CHF pair. Following that, a previous monthly low, as well as the yearly bottom, near 0.9085 will be in focus. It should be noted that the 0.9100 threshold could act as an additional downside filter for the pair traders to watch during the weakness past 0.9145 while the August 2021 low near 0.9018 may challenge the USD/CHF bears past 0.9085. Meanwhile, recovery moves need to cross the previous support line from January 18, close to 0.9205 by the press time, to recall the pair buyers. Even so, the 200-EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s January moves, respectively near 0.9270 and 0.9285, could probe the USD/CHF upside. USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3.2bn. Last week was the worst one for equity markets in 2023

The Swiss Franc (CHF) Asset Is Struggling To Extend Gains

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.02.2023 09:36
USD/CHF is oscillating in a narrow range below 0.9150 as volatility squeezes ahead of US NFP data. The demand for US government bonds is accelerating as the street is considering continuation price index softening. SNB Jordan has confirmed further interest rate hikes amid rising inflationary pressures. The USD/CHF pair is displaying a lackluster action below 0.9150 in the early European session after a gradual upside move. The Swiss franc asset is struggling to extend gains as investors are avoiding making significant positions ahead of the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. After testing Thursday’s high around 101.55, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is facing fragile barriers in extending its upside journey. S&P500 futures are failing to ease losses recorded in the Asian session, portraying a risk-off market mood. The demand for US government bonds is accelerating as the street is considering a continuation of the slowdown in the price index. This has led to a drop in the 10-year US Treasury yields below 3.38%. Friday’s price action banks upon the release of the US NFP data. Analysts at TD Securities expect a 220K increase in payroll and a modest increase in the Unemployment Rate to 3.6%. The economic catalyst that will be keenly watched by the market participants will be the labor cost index data. As per the consensus, Average Hourly Earnings data is seen at 4.9% vs. the prior release of 4.6% on an annual basis. While monthly data is seen steady at 0.3%. Considering the fact that labor demand is exceeding the supply, higher negotiation power in favor of job seekers could dent the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declining trend. Households will be with higher purchasing power, which could trigger retail demand again. Read next: Santander Bank Polska Shareholders Can Expect A Solid Dividend, The ETH Liquid Staking Narrative Is Already Going Strong| FXMAG.COM On the Swiss franc front, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas J. Jordan has confirmed further interest rate hikes as price pressures are beyond the tolerance power of the central bank.
Ralph Shedler talks US dollar against Swiss franc - May 12th

US dollar against Swiss franc: Swiss National Bank focused on limiting the effects of inflation

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 03.02.2023 16:40
The Swiss franc is unchanged on Friday, trading at 0.9132. USD/CHF has posted sharp swings over the past several days and is down 0.80% this week. Swiss releases have been a mixed bag this week. The KOF Economic Barometer rose to 97.2, up sharply from 91.5 and above the consensus of 93.3 points. This is an important sign that the economic recovery is strengthening. However, retail sales fell by 2.8%, down from -1.4% and Manufacturing PMI dropped from 54.1 to 49.3, which indicates a contraction. Consumer climate remains in negative territory, although it did rise to -9, up from -38 points. Jordan signals a rate hike in March Swiss National Bank President Jordan said on Thursday that inflation is above the level of “price stability” and the SNB is focused on limiting the effects of inflation. Jordan said that further interest rate hikes were on the table in order to keep inflation in check. Jordan also said that the SNB would intervene in the currency markets if necessary. Inflation climbed 2.8% in 2022, which is low compared to other major economies but above the SNB’s target of 2%. The SNB was busy last year, raising rates out of negative territory to 1%. The next meeting isn’t until Mar. 23, with a 57% probability of a 25-bp hike and a 43% probability of a 50-bp increase. The Fed has relied on a strong labour market to enable it to continue raising rates, and today’s US job report could be a market-mover. Nonfarm payrolls fell from 256,000 to 223,000 in December and the downturn is expected to continue, with an estimate of 190,000 for January. The ADP payroll report showed a decline in December, but unemployment claims and JOLT job openings both moved higher, so this week’s employment releases have been mixed. The markets will also be keeping a close look at hourly earnings and the unemployment rate. USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF tested resistance at 0.9153 earlier today. Above, 0.9219 is the next resistance line 0.9027 and 0.8894 are the next support lines This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Swissie takes a pause after busy week - MarketPulseMarketPulse
UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3.2bn. Last week was the worst one for equity markets in 2023

The USD/CHF Pair Is Expected Further Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.02.2023 09:03
USD/CHF takes offers to renew intraday low, stretching pullback from weekly top. Clear downside break of short-term key trend line, SMA joins downbeat oscillators to favor bearish bias. Recovery remains elusive unless crossing five-week-old resistance line. USD/CHF prints mild losses around 0.9180 heading into Tuesday’s European session, stretching the previous day’s downside break of the key support ahead of the all-important US inflation data. Not only the downside break of the 100-SMA and a two-week-old ascending trend line but bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, also favor the USD/CHF bears. That said, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since January 09, close to 0.9165-60, appears imminent support for the Swiss currency pair to test. Following that, the 0.9100 round figure and the previous monthly low near 0.9085 could act as intermediate halts before directing the USD/CHF bears toward the monthly bottom surrounding 0.9060. Meanwhile, recovery moves appear elusive unless crossing the convergence of the 100-SMA and the aforementioned support line, close to 0.9210. Even if the USD/CHF manages to stay firmer past 0.9210, a downward-sloping resistance line from January 06, near 0.9260, could act as the last defense of the pair bears. Overall, USD/CHF remains bearish as traders brace for the key US inflation data. However, the downside room appears limited. USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
US dollar pressured by Euro and Swiss franc. EUR and CHF supported by data and a rate hike

A Light Calendar May Allow The USD/CHF Pair To Remain Depressed

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 16.02.2023 08:37
USD/CHF clings to mild losses while snapping two-day winning streak. Retreat in US Treasury bond yields, DXY joins failure to cross six-week-old resistance to trigger pullback moves. China, US debt-ceiling talks seem underpinning cautious optimism but hawkish Fed bets keep buyers hopeful. USD/CHF prints mild losses around 0.9225 as it portrays the first daily fall in three during early Thursday in Europe. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair benefits from the broad US Dollar pullback amid inactive markets while consolidating the latest gains. Market sentiment improves as Chinese President Xi Jinping shows readiness to deepen industrial and investment cooperation with Asia. Following him were upbeat comments from Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun who said that the 2023 fiscal revenue will grow this year, though the growth rate will not be too high, per the Chinese state media. On a different page, the chatter surrounding the US debt-ceiling crisis, as warned by the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday per Reuters, seemed to have raised hopes of a faster solution to the big problem in the upcoming days and probed the US Treasury bond yields’ upside. The same joined a lack of major data/events to challenge the US Dollar Index (DXY) that retreat drops 0.20% to 103.65 at the latest, after rising to the 1.5-month high the previous day. It should be noted that the strong US data propelled the US bond yield and the greenback the previous day amid escalating hopes of more rate hikes from the Fed. On Wednesday, US Retail Sales growth jumped to 3.0% YoY in January versus 1.8% expected and -1.1% prior. Further, The Retail Sales ex-Autos grew by 2.3% in the same period, compared to analysts' estimate of +0.8%. On the same line, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February improved to a three-month high of -5.8 versus -18.0 expected and -32.9 market forecasts. Alternatively, the US Industrial Production marked 0.0% MoM figures for January, compared to analysts’ estimate of 0.5% and -0.7% previous readings, but failed to push back the hawkish bias surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. That said, the market’s bets on the Fed’s next moves, as per the FEDWATCH tool of Reuters, suggest the US central bank’s benchmark rate is to peak in July around 5.25% versus the December Federal Reserve prediction of 5.10% top rate. Read next: USD/JPY Is Above 133.30, GBP/USD Droped Form $1.21 to $1.20, The Aussie Pair Is Trading Below $0.69| FXMAG.COM Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 4,165 while extending the previous day’s gains whereas the US 10-year Treasury bond yields retreat following the run-up to a 1.5-month high marked on Wednesday, down two basis points to near 3.78% by the press time. Looking ahead, a light calendar may allow the USD/CHF to remain depressed while the second-tier US data concerning the housing market, industrial activity and producer prices can entertain traders ahead of the next week’s Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. Technical analysis A downward-sloping trend line from January 06 joins the 50-DMA to highlight 0.9250 as the key upside hurdle for the USD/CHF buyers to cross before taking control. Even so, bullish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line hints at the pair’s upside potential.
SNB stands firm in the face of market turbulence with 50bp rate hike

Swiss Q4 Industrial Production Will Be Important For The USD/CHF Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.02.2023 08:33
USD/CHF takes the bids to refresh weekly top during four-day winning streak. Hawkish Fed bets, upbeat US data and strong yields underpin US Dollar run-up. Risk-off mood adds strength to the upside bias ahead of Swiss Q4 Industrial Production. USD/CHF pleases bulls around 0.9280-85 as it rises for the fourth consecutive day during early Friday. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair follows the general US Dollar strength amid a light calendar ahead of the fourth quarter (Q4) Industrial Production for Switzerland. Be it strong US data or the geopolitical risks emanating from China, not to forget hawkish Fed talks and strong US Treasury bond yields, the US Dollar has it all to justify the latest rise. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) takes the bids to refresh a six-week high near 104.30 at the latest. Starting with the US data, Producer Price Index (PPI) for January gained major attention as it jumped the most since June with 0.7% MoM figure. Also positive for the pair was the improvement in the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended on February 10, 194K versus 200K expected and 195K prior. On the contrary, a slump in the Housing Starts for January and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for February seemed to have gained a little attention. The upbeat data allowed the FEDWATCH tool, observed via Reuters, to suggest that the interest rate futures market shows US rates could peak close to 5.25% by July before dropping to 5.0% by the end of the year. The same signals a higher policy pivot than the 5.10% peak conveyed by the Fed in the December meeting, which in turn hints at a few more rate hikes from the US central bank and favors the US Dollar. Recently, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester teased the recession woes while repeating the previous defense of the highest rates. Before that, St. Louis Federal Reserve's James Bullard bolstered the hawkish Fed bias while saying, “Continued policy rate increases can help lock in a disinflationary trend during 2023, even with ongoing growth and strong labor markets, by keeping inflation expectations low.” On a different page, the fresh US-China tension and Russia’s refrain from stepping back when it comes to attacking Ukraine also weigh on the risk appetite and fuel the USD/CHF pair, due to the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand. That said, US President Joe Biden fired shots at his Chinese counterpart while conveying the expectations for a talk with the Chinese leader, during an interview with NBC News. “I think the last thing that Xi wants is to fundamentally rip the relationship with the United States and with me," said US President Biden per Reuters. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures dropped 0.30% to 4,086 while poking the weekly low marked the previous day by the press time. In doing so, the US stock futures remain depressed after falling the most in a month on Thursday. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rise to a fresh high since December 30, 2022, up five basis points to 3.896% by the press time. On the same line, two-year US Treasury bond yields print mild gains to end Thursday around 4.64%, the highest levels since November 2022, making rounds 4.679% at the latest. Read next: USD/JPY Is Trading Close To 134.00, EUR/USD Is Remaining Above $1.07| FXMAG.COM Moving on, Swiss Q4 Industrial Production, prior 5.2% QoQ, will be important for the USD/CHF pair traders to watch clear directions. However, the bulls are less likely to relinquish control amid the hawkish Fed bias. Technical analysis A successful upside break of a three-month-old resistance line, now support around 0.9235, keeps USD/CHF buyers hopeful.
US dollar pressured by Euro and Swiss franc. EUR and CHF supported by data and a rate hike

The USD/CHF Pair Remains On The Bull’s Radar

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 20.02.2023 08:50
USD/CHF holds lower ground after reversing from five-week high. Sluggish markets, off in US, Canada restrict immediate moves. Risk-negative headlines, hawkish Fed challenges the bearish bias. USD/CHF flirts with the intraday low surrounding 0.9240 amid early Monday in Europe. In doing so, the major currency pair remains pressured toward the previous resistance line from late November 2022. However, a light calendar and holiday in the US, as well as in Canada, restrict immediate moves of the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair. Better-than-forecast prints of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales followed the previously flashed upbeat readings of employment and output data and propelled the US Treasury bond yields, as well as the US Dollar. On the same line could be the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) comments and the risk-negative catalysts surrounding China, North Korea and Russia. However, Friday’s mixed comments from the Fed officials seemed to have probed the US Dollar bulls and triggered the USD/CHF pair’s U-turn from the multi-day high. That said, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman recently said, “We are seeing a lot of inconsistent data in economic conditions,” as reported by Reuters. On the contrary, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that they are seeing some progress on inflation with demand normalizing, as reported by Reuters. Elsewhere, North Korea fired two ballistic missiles toward Japan and renewed the fears that the hermit kingdom is up to something serious that can endanger the global economy, mainly due to the nature of the missiles fired as they both were termed as tactical nuclear attack weapons. However, both the missiles were down ahead of Japanese boundaries and allowed traders to take a sigh of relief even as Japan PM Fumio Kishida calls for the United Nations Security Council meeting to discuss the issues. On the same line, the latest meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China's top diplomat Wang Yi seemed to have failed in restoring the US-China ties. The reason could be linked to a Chinese diplomat’s comments saying that the US must change course and repair the damage done to Sino-US ties by indiscriminate use of force. On the same line, US ambassador to the United Nations, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said Sunday that China would cross a “red line” if the country decided to provide lethal military aid to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses even as Wall Street closed mixed. It’s worth noting that the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to the highest levels since early November in the last week and helped the US Dollar Index (DXY) to print a three-week uptrend, before retreating to 103.90 as of late. Moving ahead, light calendar and holidays in the key markets may offer a sluggish trading session ahead of Wednesday’s key Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting. Following that, the second reading of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be important to forecast the USD/CHF moves. Technical analysis USD/CHF remains on the bull’s radar unless breaking below the three-month-old descending resistance line, now support line near 0.9230 at the latest.
SNB stands firm in the face of market turbulence with 50bp rate hike

The Cautious Mood Ahead Of The Key Data/Events Favors The USD/CHF Buyers

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 21.02.2023 09:11
USD/CHF grinds near intraday high during the first positive day in three. Risk aversion joins firmer yields to underpin US Dollar rebound amid full markets. Geopolitical concerns surrounding China, North Korea and Russia weigh on sentiment. Swiss trade numbers, US PMI eyed for immediate directions, Fed Minutes is the key. USD/CHF remains mildly bid around 0.9240, despite recently easing from the intraday high, as the Swiss pair (CHF) traders benefit from the US Dollar rebound amid sour sentiment. It’s worth noting, however, that the cautious mood ahead of the key data/events favors the USD/CHF buyers. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) snaps a two-day losing streak while marking mild gains near 104.00. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies traces the US Treasury bond yields, as well as benefits from the traditional haven status. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields pick up bids to near the highest levels marked since early November 2022, mildly bid around 3.86% at the latest. While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Futures declined 0.40% intraday to 4,070 at the latest. While tracing the run-up in the US Treasury bond yields, the fears emanating from China, North Korea and Russia seemed to have underpinned the fresh run-up in the US Treasury bond yields, amid hawkish hopes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), as well as the US Dollar rebound. That said, the US and China alleged each other over the balloon shooting whereas the US diplomatic ties with Taiwan teased Beijing on Monday. On the same line, the United Nations (UN) Security Council is alarmed by Japan for North Korea’s missile testing and could help the US Dollar to remain firmer due to its safe-haven status. At home, the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) previous warnings to use open market operations to defend the CHF seemed to have weighed on the USD/CHF prices. However, the cautious mood ahead of today’s Swiss trade numbers for January and the preliminary readings of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February will be important for the US Dollar ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Overall, USD/CHF is likely to remain directed towards the north unless the US PMIs disappoint the watchers. Technical analysis Given the USD/CHF pair’s rebound from the previous resistance line from late November, close to 0.9225 at the latest, the buyers are likely approaching the weekly top of 0.9332. However, the 50-DMA restricts the immediate upside of the quote near 0.9245.
UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3.2bn. Last week was the worst one for equity markets in 2023

Further upside movement of the USD/CHF Pair is expected

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 22.02.2023 09:20
USD/CHF pares the biggest daily gains in three weeks by reversing from golden Fibonacci ratio. Multiple trend lines, 200-SMA stand tall to challenge downside move, RSI conditions also suggest further grinding towards the north. Buyers seem to have a smooth road ahead of 0.9350 hurdle. USD/CHF seesaws around 0.9265 as it consolidates the previous day’s gains with mild losses heading into Wednesday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair makes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, to pare the biggest daily jump since early February. Even so, the most steady RSI (14), above 50, joins the bullish MACD signals, despite being sluggish of late, to keep the USD/CHF buyers hopeful. That said, a one-week-old ascending trend line restricts the immediate downside of the USD/CHF pair near 0.9245. Following that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-SMA could probe the bears around 0.9235 and 0.9220 in that order. It’s worth noting that an upward-sloping support line from February 01, close to 0.9185 at the latest, appears the last defense of the USD/CHF bulls. On the flip side, a clear break of the aforementioned key Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9275 could quickly propel the USD/CHF prices toward the 0.9300 round figure before highlighting the latest swing top near 0.9335. Though, multiple hurdles near 0.9350 seem to challenge the USD/CHF pair’s upside past 0.9335, a break of which could easily challenge the previous monthly high surrounding 0.9490. USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected
SNB stands firm in the face of market turbulence with 50bp rate hike

The Market’s Fears Of Higher Inflation And Interest Rates Keep The USD/CHF Buyers Hopeful

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.03.2023 08:34
USD/CHF takes offers to renew intraday high even as risk-aversion prevails. US Dollar struggles to track upbeat yields amid strong China data, softer statistics at home. Downbeat  Swiss GDP, hawkish Fed bets favored buyers the previous day. USD/CHF renews its intraday low around 0.9410 as bulls take a breather following the strong February performance during early Wednesday. In doing so, the Swiss currency pair fails to justify the market’s mildly offbeat tone amid fears of higher rates and inflation. The reason could be linked to China as recent activity data from the world’s largest industrial player came in impressive for February. That said, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI traces official activity data per NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI to mark a strong economic rebound in February. Even so, China Finance Minister Liu He said after the data release that the foundation of China's economic recovery is still not stable. It should be noted that the month-start consolidation and the recently softer US data also seem to favor the USD/CHF bears. On Tuesday, the US Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence dropped for the second consecutive month to 102.9 versus 106.0 prior (revised) while US Housing Price Index drops 0.1% in December versus -0.6% market forecasts and -0.1% prior. On the same line, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices grew 4.6% YoY during the said month compared to 6.1% market expectations and 6.8% previous readings. Furthermore, Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for February eased to 43.6 from 44.3 previous readings and 45.0 market consensus whereas the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for the said month eased below 11.0 prior and -5.0 expected to -16. Even so, the market’s fears of higher inflation and interest rates keep the USD/CHF buyers hopeful. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures track Wall Street’s mild losses around 3,960. Further, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose two basis points (bps) to 3.93% while the two-year counterpart rises four bps to 4.84% by the press time. With this, both the key bond coupons march towards the three-month high marked in February after printing the biggest monthly gain since September 2022. Read next: Elon Musk Is Richest Man Again, The State Bank Of India Had Raised $1 Billion From Global Banks| FXMAG.COM Apart from the risk-off mood, downbeat data at home also could keep the USD/CHF buyers hopeful. Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) arrived at 0% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022 vs. a growth of 0.3% and 0.2% recorded in the third quarter. Moving forward, Swiss Real Retail Sales for January can direct immediate USD/CHF moves ahead of US activity data for the said month. However, major attention will be given to the next week’s monthly jobs report, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting for clear directions. Technical analysis USD/CHF pullback remains elusive unless the quote drops back below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level surrounding 0.9385.
US dollar pressured by Euro and Swiss franc. EUR and CHF supported by data and a rate hike

The SNB Does Not Provide Forward Guidance For Its Rate Policy

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 07.03.2023 14:16
USD/CHF has rebounded on Tuesday, ending a rally that saw the Swiss franc climb over 1%. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9344, up 0.40%. Swiss inflation higher than expected Switzerland released the February inflation report on Monday and the reading was higher than expected. CPI rose 0.7% m/m, up from 0.6% in February and above the 0.4% forecast. On an annualized basis, CPI climbed 3.4%, edging up from 3.3% and higher than the forecast of 3.1%. These inflation numbers would be a dream come true for most major central banks, which are struggling with inflation levels two or three times higher. Still, the Swiss National Bank is concerned about high inflation, as its target is 0-2%. The SNB was widely expected to raise rate by 50 basis points at the rate meeting on March 23 and the uptick in February inflation cements the likelihood of such a move. Swiss National Bank Chair Jordan will make an appearance later today and is likely to address the rise in inflation. The SNB does not provide forward guidance for its rate policy, but the central bank has projected an inflation rate of 2.4% for 2023. With the cash rate currently at 1%, it’s a safe bet that we’ll see another hike in June of either 25 or 50 basis points. The continuing tightening should provide a boost to the Swiss franc, but traders should keep in mind that the SNB has not hesitated to intervene in the foreign exchange market when the Swiss franc became too strong for its liking. In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will be in the spotlight as he testifies before a Senate committee later today. The Fed has remained hawkish and after a host of strong January releases, the markets have shifted their expectations closer to the Fed’s stance. It was only a few weeks ago that the markets were projecting a pause followed by rate cuts, but this has changed to pricing in three more rate hikes this year. There is a lot of uncertainty in the air about inflation and interest rates and the markets are hoping that Powell’s comments will provide some clarity.   USD/CHF Technical There is resistance at 0.9381 and 0.9420 0.9304 and 0.9224 are providing support This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
SNB stands firm in the face of market turbulence with 50bp rate hike

The US CPI Will Be More Important For The USD/CHF Pair Traders

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 08:43
USD/CHF bounces off five-week low to print the first daily gain in five. US Dollar traces corrective bounce off yields to pare recent losses. Interest rate futures raise doubts on further USD/CHF advances unless US inflation markets notable jump. USD/CHF seesaws around intraday high during the first positive day in five heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair traces the US Dollar’s latest corrective bounce amid a recovery in the US Treasury bond yields ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. It should be noted, however, that the recently downbeat market concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) seem to test the buyers ahead of the key US data. That said, US 10-year Treasury bond yields print mild gains of around 3.58%, after bouncing off the monthly bottom of 3.418%, whereas the two-year counterpart rebounds from the lowest levels since September 2022 to print mild gains of around 4.19% by the press time. It should be noted that the US two-year Treasury bond yields dropped the most since 1987 the previous day. A major slump in the US Treasury bond yields could be linked to the fears emanated from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the Signature Bank fallouts, despite the US authorities’ defense. While talking about the Fed bets, CME said, “Traders see 33% chance Fed holds rates this month, market pricing shows rate cuts expected as early as June.” On the same line Reuters mentioned that yhe US Fed Fund Futures have priced in a 69% chance of a 25-bps hike at next week's Fed policy meeting, with a more than 30% probability of a pause,” said Reuters. The news also added that the market last week was poised for a 50-bps increase prior to the SVB collapse. Amid these plays, Wall Street closed mixed and so do stocks in the Asia-Pacific region while S&P 500 Future snap three-day downtrend by bouncing off the lowest levels since early January. Looking ahead, the US CPI will be more important for the USD/CHF pair traders as the Fed bets have already reversed. As per the market forecasts, the headline US CPI is likely to ease to 6.0% YoY versus 6.4% prior while CPI ex Food & Energy may slide to 5.5% YoY from 5.6% prior. Also read: US Inflation Preview: Five scenarios for trading the Core CPI whipsaw within the SVB storm Technical analysis A clear downside break of the five-week-old ascending support line, now resistance around 0.9335, keeps USD/CHF bears hopeful of testing the previous monthly low of 0.9060.     search   g_translate    
Ralph Shedler talks US dollar against Swiss franc - May 12th

Next Credit Suisse case developments may add volatility to Swiss franc

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 20.03.2023 14:11
USD/CHF is trading quietly on Monday, after a tumultuous week. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9276, up 0.15%. Credit Suisse takeover, central banks take action There was a flurry of activity on Sunday in response to the banking crisis which has shaved some $1 trillion from global financial shares this month. UBS has agreed to take over Credit Suisse, the second-largest bank in Switzerland. The move hasn’t stopped the bleeding at Credit Suisse, as its shares are down some 60% today. UBS shares are down 6% today and Deutschebank and other major European banks are also in the red. As well, six central banks, including the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Reserve announced they had coordinated action in order to boost liquidity. This move is aimed at restoring market confidence in the global banking system, which has been rocked by the failure of two US banks and the meltdown at Credit Suisse. Read next: Microsoft, Amazon and Google increased by nearly 15% last week| FXMAG.COM The Swiss franc was not immune to the market mayhem, as the sharp fall in Credit Suisse shares on Wednesday sent the Swissie tumbling by 2.1% and only settled down after intervention by the SNB. The Swiss franc, traditionally a safe-haven bastion, has seen its reputation tarnished as Swiss banks are in the middle of a banking crisis. Further developments in the Credit Suisse saga could lead to more volatility in the Swiss currency. The market turmoil has seen market pricing for Wednesday’s Fed meeting shift from an increase of 50 basis points to 25, with an outside chance of a pause in hikes. The Fed has adopted a hawkish stance in its battle with inflation, but the latest crisis will make the Fed think twice about its pace of rate hikes. The markets have priced in a terminal rate in a range of 4.75% to 5.25%, and with the current rate at 4.50-4.75%, that means the markets are expecting the Fed to take a pause in the coming months. USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.9304. Above, there is resistance at 0.9382 0.9226 and 0.9110 are providing support This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Swiss franc in calm waters, but is there are a storm ahead? - MarketPulseMarketPulse
ZEW Economic Expectations came in at -41.3. Swiss retail sales go public on Friday

ZEW Economic Expectations came in at -41.3. Swiss retail sales go public on Friday

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 29.03.2023 22:57
The Swiss franc has edged higher on Wednesday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.9176 in the European session, down 0.23%. The ZEW Economic Expectations index fell sharply to -43.3 points. In the US, CB Consumer Confidence improved to 1o4.2 points. Banking crisis sends Swiss economic expectations crashing lower The banking crisis has eased after causing market turmoil across the globe. Switzerland’s banking sector has taken a hit, as Credit Suisse, the country’s second-largest bank, collapsed and had to be rescued by rival UBS, with the Swiss government injecting some $108 billion to ensure that the takeover is completed. The reputation of the Swiss banking system has been badly tarnished and the fallout will likely have a negative impact on the Swiss economy. Even before the banking crisis, the Swiss economy was sputtering. GDP was flat in Q4 of 2022, as a weak global economy meant less demand for Swiss exports. The economy was expected to grow by 1.1% in 2023, lower than average growth, and that figure could well be revised lower due to the banking crisis. Inflation hit 3.5% in 2022, much lower than in other major economies but high for Switzerland. The Swiss National Bank has tried to curb inflation with higher interest rates and delivered a 50-basis point hike earlier this month. Read next: Craig Erlam and Jonny Hart talk UK inflation, Bank of England and Binance| FXMAG.COM ZEW Economic Expectations has been mired deep in negative territory for over a year, but showed a significant improvement in January, rising from -40.0 to -12.3 points. The February reading, released today, came in at -41.3, as the January improvement was short-lived. We’ll get another snapshot of the strength of the Swiss economy on Friday, with the release of retail sales and the KOF Economic Barometer. In the US, consumers have been concerned about their bank deposits and the stability of the banking system. Despite these worries, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index improved to 104.2 in March, up from an upwardly revised 103.4 prior. Consumer expectations also rose, from 73.0 to 74.0 points. If the banking crisis does not worsen, the strong consumer expectation numbers should translate into increased consumer spending. USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF tested resistance at 0.9212 earlier in the day. The next resistance line is 0.9304 0.9106 and 0.9014 are providing support   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. USD/CHF - Swiss franc steady after economic expectations slide - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Swiss Inflation Falls Below Expectations; US Markets Closed, Fed Minutes Awaited

Swiss Inflation Falls Below Expectations; US Markets Closed, Fed Minutes Awaited

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 04.07.2023 15:48
Swiss inflation lower than expected US markets closed on Tuesday Fed minutes will be released on Wednesday The Swiss franc is showing little movement on Tuesday, trading at 0.8959 in the European session. US markets are closed for the July Fourth holiday and we can expect a quiet day for USD/CHF.   Swiss inflation falls to 1.7% Switzerland’s inflation rate dipped in June to 1.7% y/y, down from 2.2% in May and just below the consensus of 1.8%. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.1%, down from 0.3% and below the consensus of 0.2%. Core inflation eased to 1.8% y/y, down from 1.9%. Swiss National Bank President Jordan has often complained that inflation remains too high, although other central bankers, who are grappling with much higher inflation, would be happy to change places. Both the headline and core rates have now dropped into the Bank’s target range of 0%-2%, which should lend support to the SNB taking a pause at the September meeting. However, Jordan has been quite hawkish and one positive inflation report may not be enough to convince the SNB that the decline in inflation is temporary. The markets have priced in a 66% probability of a 0.25% in September, which would bring the cash rate to an even 2.0%. US markets are closed today, but Wednesday should be a busy session as the Fed releases the minutes from the June meeting. The markets are widely expecting a rate hike in July, and there are growing concerns that if the Fed continues to hike, the economy will tip into a recession.  The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury note yields deepened to a 42-year high on Wednesday, raising fears of a recession. A yield curve inversion is considered a reliable indication of a recession and the current inversion has been in place since July, raising fears about the direction of the US economy.   USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF is testing support at 0.8961. Below, there is support at 0.8904 0.9009 and 0.9081 are the next resistance lines  
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EUR/USD Undergoing Third Significant Correction of the Year amid Dovish ECB Expectations

ING Economics ING Economics 03.08.2023 10:19
EUR: An episodic correction EUR/USD is currently going through its third significant correction of the year. The corrections in February and May were worth 5% and 4%, respectively. The current correction is around 3%. These corrections largely come on the back of heavy one-way positioning, given that most expect EUR/USD to be higher by year-end - the current consensus is for 1.12. We would warn against getting too pessimistic on EUR/USD because of the European Central Bank. True, the market has taken 15bp out of the expected ECB tightening cycle over recent weeks, but as our colleague Peter Vanden Houte outlined yesterday, core inflation is still high and the September ECB meeting should still be considered 'live' for a 25bp rate hike.  For today, the eurozone calendar is light and EUR/USD will again be driven by US inputs. Unless US activity data surprisingly softens today, expect EUR/USD to continue to press the 100-day moving average near 1.0930, below which there is an outside risk to the 1.0850 area. We do, however, believe this dip should be temporary and continue to forecast 1.12 by the end of September on further signs of US disinflation and finally some softer US activity data, too. Elsewhere we see Swiss July CPI data today. The headline rate is expected to fall further to 1.7% year-on-year and the core to remain at 1.8%. Despite this, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to remain hawkish and hike 25bp at its September meeting. The SNB also continues to guide the nominal Swiss franc higher. Given that USD/CHF is now rallying, the SNB may need more of that trade-weighted Swiss franc appreciation to come via EUR/CHF. That could mean that 0.9650 now proves the top of a new - and lower - 0.9500-0.9650 range.
CHF Strengthens Against USD: Bullish Exhaustion Signals Potential Downtrend Continuation

CHF Strengthens Against USD: Bullish Exhaustion Signals Potential Downtrend Continuation

Kelvin Wong Kelvin Wong 22.08.2023 09:14
The CHF is the second-best performing major currency against the USD based on a one-month rolling basis. The recent four weeks of up move of USD/CHF has flashed out bullish exhaustion conditions that advocate the potential continuation of its medium-term impulsive down move. 0.8800/8830 is the key resistance zone to watch on the USD/CHF. In the past four weeks, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is the second best-performing major currency against the USD where the CHF just depreciated by -1.40% with the GBP that has come in the first place (-0.67% against the USD) based on a one-month rolling calculation as of 22 August 2023 at this time of the writing.         Fig 1:  Rolling 1-month performance of USD against major currencies as of 22 August 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In the lens of technical analysis, the rally of +269 pips that was seen on the USD/CHF from its 27 July 2023 low of 0.8553 to the recent 21 August 2023 high of 0.8828 is likely to be a corrective rebound within a medium-term downtrend that is still intact since its 8 March 2023 due to the emergence of several bullish exhaustion elements.     Daily bearish candlestick emerged right at descending channel resistance     Fig 2:  USD/CHF medium-term trend as of 22 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Yesterday’s price action of USD/CHF has staged a bearish reaction right at the upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel that coincides with the downward-sloping 50-day moving average with both acting as a confluence of resistance at 0.8830.     Started to evolve into a minor downtrend     Fig 3:  USD/CHF minor short-term trend as of 22 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since its 21 August 2023 high of 0.8828, the price actions of USD/CHF have started to oscillate into a minor downtrend in a series of “lower highs and lower lows”. Watch the 0.8800 key short-term pivotal resistance a break below 0.8755 near-term support (also the 20-day moving average) exposing the next support at 0.8700 (minor swing lows of 4/10 August 2023) in the first step. On the flip side, a clearance above 0.8800 negates the bearish tone to set sight again on the 0.8830 medium-term resistance.      
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Swiss Retail Sales Decline, Inflation Expected to Dip, US Unemployment Claims Drop

Kelvin Wong Kelvin Wong 01.09.2023 11:32
Swiss retail sales decline by 2.3% Swiss inflation expected to dip to 1.5% US unemployment claims drop to 228,000 US PCE Price Index rises by 3.3%     The Swiss franc has lost ground on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8835, up 0.59%. Thursday’s Swiss retail sales for July looked awful, falling 2.3% m/m. This follows a revised gain of 1.5% in June. Market attention has now shifted to Swiss inflation, which will be released on Friday. Swiss inflation dropped to 1.6% in July, the lowest level since July 2022. The downtrend is expected to continue in August with a consensus estimate of 1.5%. Policy makers at the Swiss National Bank have to be pleased with the inflation rate. Switzerland boasts the lowest inflation rate in the developed world and both headline and core inflation are comfortably nestled in the central bank’s inflation target range of 0%-2%. Still, the SNB remains wary about inflation, with concerns that increases in rents and electricity prices could push inflation back up to 2%. Food inflation remains high and rose from 5.1% to 5.3% in July. Unlike other major central banks, the SNB meets quarterly, which magnifies the significance of each rate decision. At the June meeting, the central bank raised rates to 1.75% from 1.50% and hinted that further hikes were coming. The SNB has projected inflation will hit 2.2% in 2023 and 2024, above its target. That means the SNB expects to have to continue raising rates, although, as is the case with many other central banks, the peak rate appears to be close at hand. In the US, unemployment claims dropped to 228,000 last week, down from a revised 232,000 and below the estimate of 236,000. All eyes will be on Friday’s job report, with nonfarm payrolls expected to dip to 170,000, down from 187,000.   The Fed’s favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, increased in July by 0.2% for a second straight month, lower than the estimate of 0.3%. On an annualized basis, the PCE Price Index climbed 3.3% in July, up from 3.0% in June. Service prices rose by 0.4% in July, up from 0.3% from the previous month. The numbers indicate that the Fed’s battle with inflation is far from over, and the final phase of pushing inflation down to 2% may prove the most difficult. . USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8827. Above, there is resistance at 0.8895 0.8779 and 0.8711 are providing support
German Ifo Index Continues to Decline in September, Confirming Economic Stagnation

Fed Expected to Hold Rates on September 20th, Dollar Softens as Treasury Yields Ease, Retail Sales Weaken, Mixed US Inflation Report

Ed Moya Ed Moya 11.09.2023 11:26
Fed expected to keep rates on hold on September 20th 10-year Treasury yield eases back to 4.248% as 4.36% remains key resistance US retail sales are expected to weaken and the US inflation report will be mixed (core steady, headline rises)   The US dollar rally may have to wait till next week’s inflation and retail sales data. The dollar is slightly softer across the board as Treasury yields soften. It was a rather quiet day in the US as most of the attention stayed on Apple shares and another earnings report that supported the resumption of the disinflation process.  Kroger’s earnings release stated, “we believe inflation will continue to decelerate and the environment will remain challenging for consumers.” Today, we didn’t learn anything new about the short-term direction of inflation and the US economy.  Next week, will either bolster up the Fed hawk argument that more tightening might be needed in November or show the consumer is finally feeling the impact of the Fed’s tightening cycle, as financing costs surge, student-loan repayments come due, and as households run out of excess savings.   USD/CHF Daily Chart       USD/CHF (a daily chart of which is shown) as of Friday (September 8th 2023) has shown the bullish move that started in the middle of July is running out of steam.  Price action in September recaptured both the 50- and 100-day SMAs.  The strong bearish trend that has been in place since last November is being tested and bullish momentum could thrive over the short-term if price is able to recapture the 200-day SMA, alongside making its first higher high since late last year. The bearish case for USD/CHF however could unfold over the coming months.  The cost of capital will clearly be much higher and that will take a major toll on just personal consumption but also corporate spending.  When risk aversion runs wild, USD/CHF may return quickly.  Right now the market is pricing in a soft landing that includes orderly weakness, but that could get rattled if geopolitics deliver a couple shocks to risk appetite.  
Franc Records 11th Consecutive Daily Decline Against the Dollar as US Economic Concerns Mount

Franc Records 11th Consecutive Daily Decline Against the Dollar as US Economic Concerns Mount

Ed Moya Ed Moya 27.09.2023 13:41
Franc posts 11th straight daily decline versus the dollar US consumer confidence falls to 4-month low 10-year Treasury yield rises 1.2 bps to 4.546% The relief rally was not meant to be for risky assets, but that didn’t seem to matter for USD/CHF.  The US dollar is rallying after consumer confidence fell to 4-month low, new home sales had their largest drop in almost a year, while S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller reported home prices rose to a record high. The economy sure looks like it might break, and it could easily get a lot worse if the Fed needs to take rates much higher.  The dollar is higher on both safe-haven flows and fears the Fed might not be done.   JPMorgan CEO Dimon warned that the Fed might not be done raising rates, highlighting that he is not sure the world is prepared for 7% along with stagflation.  The Dow is having its worst day since March, and it won’t take a lot for momentum selling to heat up.  A government shutdown seems likely as lawmakers are nowhere close to agreeing on deep spending cuts and how much aid should go to Ukraine. A stopgap solution is losing momentum and it seems that House Speaker McCarthy might lose his position as hard-right Republicans are not budging.  The worse the economic outlook becomes; the lower Fed rate hike odds should get but inflation is proving to be tricky here.  Wall Street won’t be able to say the peak is in place and that the disinflation process will remain if we are seeing record house prices, surging oil prices, and a surging dollar. US Data The economy is headed towards a rough patch if you believe the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence report.  Given how high gas prices are becoming and the record prices it takes to buy a house, the consumer isn’t feeling too good.  Corporate stress is here and as credit conditions tighten further, the labor market is ready to weaken.  The Expectations survey plunged from 83.3 to 73.7, which is below the 80 level that typically signals a recession is coming.        USD/CHF Daily Chart     USD/CHF (a daily chart of which is shown) as of Tuesday (9/26/2023) has been locked into a very strong bullish trend.  Price action is close to hitting 0.9161 level, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0150 to 0.8550 downward move.  If bullish momentum remains intact key resistance lies at the 0.9350 level.  Major support lies at the 0.89o0 level.  

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