us30

Hello, and thanks for stopping by. Our US30 market update video is just below the US30 d1 chart.

In today’s report, we break down the US30 on an overall longer-term view and the current short-term view. Overall the trend remains down, and we are watching to see if the short term can complete the current pattern of trend and maintain a normal trend with a new LL. Sellers are in control on the short term but they have a bit to do to confirm that.

On the short-term, sellers continue to hold sway with a break of yesterday’s low in today’s out-of-hours session. We’re seeing two keys moving forward. 1, sellers break 30,500 demand and set off back to 29,683 low. If demand holds and we see a new move above 31,500 resistance, we will jump off the seller train and look at the possibility that the uptrend from the 20th of June has further to run.

Good trading and we hope you enjoy your day.

US30 D1 Chart

US30 Update Video (powered by TradingView)

The post US30 pressure continues.

Despite Signs to the Contrary, Gold at or Near Top

Despite Signs to the Contrary, Gold at or Near Top

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.01.2021 16:13
The thing that most likely raised quite a few eyebrows this week was – in addition to gold’s recent move by itself – the fact that gold rallied mostly without the dollar’s help. Yesterday (Jan. 5) I wrote that one swallow doesn’t make a summer and that a single session rarely changes much.We didn’t have to wait for long – the situation seems to be getting back to normal.Figure 1 - COMEX Gold FuturesAfter the January 4th rally, gold moved only insignificantly higher, and it’s even a bit lower in today’s pre-market trading.Figure 2 - USD IndexWhile the USD Index didn’t decline on Jan. 4, it did in the following days – yesterday and in today’s pre-market trading. So, the gold-USD link seems to be relatively normal after all; it doesn’t – by itself – indicate further relative strength in gold .There are three important things that one needs to note here.The first one is what I already wrote previously – gold is not even above its Nov. 2020 high, while the USDX is below its 2020 low, which means that gold is weak relative to the USD Index and Monday’s (Jan. 4) rally seems to have been an exception.The second one is also something that I wrote about previously – gold is right at its triangle-vertex-based reversal and it might have just topped (given its tiny decline despite a decline in the USDX).The third one is that the USD Index has quite a steep declining resistance line that’s based on the early-November and late-November highs. Each previous attempt to break above it that we saw in the last few weeks failed. But thanks to the steepness of the line, the USD Index is at this line even despite today’s decline. All it takes for the USD Index to break above it is for it to do… nothing. This should be relatively easy given how excessive the bearishness is in this market, how similar it is to what we saw in early 2018, what’s happening in the RSI and even given the similarity between 2018 and now in the cryptocurrencies. You can see details on the chart below.Figure 3 - USDX, USD, GOLD, GDX, and SPX ComparisonBy the way, someone who is not interested in markets or investments at all just called me yesterday to ask if I can help an individual they knew with cryptos – this is a classic case study of something that you see in the final stages of a price bubble. It’s an example of the general public buying, and they tend to enter at the tops. Bitcoin is at about $35,000 when I’m writing these words - you have been warned.How does it all combine? The gold-USD link is intact and a soaring USDX would likely trigger a sell-off in gold. There are many reasons due to which the USDX is likely to rally soon, even the situation in the cryptocurrency market makes the current time similar to early 2018. The triangle-vertex-based reversal in gold is right about now, so it seems that we won’t have to wait for long.Figure 4 - COMEX Silver FuturesAdditionally, silver is showing strength.Figure 5 – VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETFMiners, however, are not showing strength. They even declined yesterday (by just one cent, but still) while gold moved a bit higher, but this is just a small confirmation of what we’ve been seeing for many weeks.Let’s study the above chart:Miners were underperforming gold for many days and weeks, and they showed strength on Monday (Jan. 4). Just like in the case of gold – it was a one-day phenomenon, and one swallow doesn’t make a summer.During the day, the GDX ETF managed to rally above its 50-day moving average – just as it did at its November top. Unlike gold, miners are not very close to their November high. They corrected about 61.8% of the decline from this top. Moreover, please note that miners have corrected about 38.2% of the August – November decline. They haven’t even erased half of the decline that occurred in the previous months – so it’s definitely too early to say that miners started a new powerful rally here. Instead, we see that miners are making lower lows and lower highs.Moreover, please take note of the spike in volume that we saw on Monday. There were very few cases when we saw something similar in the previous months, which was at the November high and at the July high, right before the final 2020 top. The implications are bearish.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Why You Shouldn’t Get Excited About Gold’s Mini-Rally

Why You Shouldn’t Get Excited About Gold’s Mini-Rally

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.01.2021 16:49
Gold seems to be sleeping off its latest mini-rally and lacks the momentum to reach new highs. What happens from here? Has the USD bottomed? And what does it mean when we factor in the EUR/USD pair and poor economic indicators from Europe into the equation?Not much happened yesterday (Jan. 21), but what happened was relatively informative. And by “relatively” I mean literally just that. Gold moved lower yesterday and in today’s pre-market trading, doing so despite another small move lower in the USD Index. The moves are not big, but they are meaningful. They show that gold’s inauguration-day rally was likely a temporary blip on the radar screen instead of being a game-changer.Figure 1 – COMEX Gold FuturesLooking at the above gold chart, I marked the November consolidation with a blue rectangle, and I copied it to the current situation, based on the end of the huge daily downswing. Gold moved briefly below it in recent days, after which it rallied back up, and right now it’s very close to the upper right corner of the rectangle.This means that the current situation remains very similar to what we saw back in November, right before another slide started – and this second slide was bigger than the first one. Consequently, there’s a good reason for gold to reverse any day (or hour) now.Besides, there’s also a declining resistance line just around the corner.And that’s not even the most important thing. The most important thing is that based on the similarity to how things developed between 2011 and 2013, gold’s downward trajectory is likely to have periodic corrections at this time – up to a point where it simply plunges.Figure 2 - GOLD Continuous Contract (EOD)When the current situation is compared to what we saw about a decade ago, it shows what one should expect, assuming that the history repeats itself.Gold kept on declining with corrections along the way until April. In April, the decline accelerated profoundly. The biggest problem with the latter was that practically nobody expected this kind of volatility. Those who were thinking that it’s just another move lower that will be reversed were very surprised.Right now, you know in advance that a bigger move lower is likely just around the corner, and you won’t be surprised when it comes. Whether we have to wait an additional few days or first see gold rally by $10 or $30 is not that important, if it’s about to slide $150 and then another $200 or so.I would like to add that gold is declining today and based on the similarity to the November consolidation, it’s exactly the day when we should expect to see a decline. Of course, the similarity doesn’t have to persist, and the history doesn’t have to repeat itself to the letter, but what’s happening right now seems to be confirming the analogy in a considerable way. This means that more declines are likely just around the corner. If not immediately, then shortly.Figure 3 - COMEX Silver FuturesSilver turned south after reaching (approximately) the price level that stopped the rally in July and November 2020, and also earlier this year. This seems relatively natural and the outlook for silver remains bearish for the next several weeks.Silver corrected a bit more of this year’s downswing than gold, which is normal given the bearish outlook. The same goes for miners’ underperformance. Let’s keep in mind that silver’s “strength” is temporary – once the decline really starts, and it moves to its final part, silver is likely to catch up big time.Figure 4 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETFAs far as the miners are concerned, mining stocks didn’t correct half of their 2021 decline. They didn’t invalidate the breakdown below the rising support line, either. In fact, the GDX ETF closed yesterday’s session below the 50-day moving average. Technically, nothing changed yesterday.Please note that the November – today consolidation is quite similar to the consolidation that we saw between April and June (see Figure 4 - green rectangles). Both shoulders of the head-and-shoulder formation can be identical, but they don’t have to be, so it’s not that the current consolidation has to end at the right border of the current rectangle. However, the fact that the price is already close to this right border tells us that it would be very normal for the consolidation to end any day now – most likely before the end of January.If we see a rally to $37, or even $38, it won’t change much – the outlook will remain intact anyway and the right shoulder of the potential head-and-shoulders formation will remain similar to the left shoulder.However, does the GDX have to first rally to $37 or $38 to decline? Absolutely not. It could turn south right away, thus surprising most market participants.Figure 5 – USD IndexIn Tuesday’s (Jan. 19) analysis , I commented on the above USD Index chart in the following way:The USD Index is after a major breakout above the declining resistance lines and this breakout was confirmed. Consequently, the USD Index is likely to rally, but is it likely to rally shortly? The answer to this question is being clarified at the moment of writing these words, because the USD Index moved back to its rising short-term support line that’s based on the 2021 bottoms.If the USD Index breaks below it, traders will view the 2021 rally as a zigzag corrective pattern and will probably sell the U.S. currency, causing it to decline, perhaps to the mid-January low or even triggering a re-test of the 2021 low.If the USD Index performs well at this time and rallies back up after touching the support line, and then moves to new yearly highs, it will be then that traders realize that it was definitely not just a zigzag correction, but actually the major bottom. In the previous scenario, they would also realize that, but later, after an additional short-term decline.It’s now clear that the former scenario is being realized. The support levels that could trigger the USD’s reversal are based on the potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern – the red line that’s slightly above 90, and the horizontal line that’s slightly below it. It’s also possible that the USD Index tests it yearly lows. None of the above would be likely to change the outlook for the precious metals sector, at least not beyond the immediate term.Later yesterday (Jan. 21) and also in today’s overnight trading, the USD Index moved to the upper of the above-mentioned support lines. Is the bottom already in? This seems likely, but it’s not crystal-clear yet. However, it doesn’t really matter, because the precious metals market responded to the USD’s strength for just one day (in a meaningful way that is) and taking a closer look at that day reveals that it was not the USDX’s performance that gold reacted to, but to the underlying news – the inauguration-day-based uncertainty. So, even if the USD Index declines some more here before soaring, gold doesn’t have to move significantly higher. In fact, it would be unlikely to do so.Stocks have rallied, and based on this rally, the weekly RSI moved close to 70 once again.Figure 6 – S&P 500 IndexThis is important because the last two major declines were preceded by this very signal. We saw the double-top in the RSI at about 70, exactly when the stock market started its big declines, and we’re seeing the same thing right now. If this was the only thing pointing to much lower stock values on the horizon, I would say that the situation is not so critical, but that’s not the only thing – far from it. Before moving to these non-technical details, let’s recall why the stock market analysis and the USD index analysis matters for precious metals investors and traders.The analyses matter because gold, silver, and mining stocks are likely to decline in parallel with a decline in stocks and the USD’s rally. This is likely to take place up to a certain point, when precious metals show strength and refuse to decline further despite the stock market continuing to fall and the USDX continuing to rally. This kind of performance happened many times, including in the first half of last year.Since the S&P 500 futures are down in today’s overnight trading, perhaps we have indeed seen a top. Even if not, it doesn’t seem that one is very far away, based on how excessive the situation looks from the fundamental point of view. Let’s discuss some of those non-technical issues.Mind Over MatterDespite Janet Yellen’s recent assertion that “the United States does not seek a weaker currency,” her tongue-in-cheek comments are actually doing just that. The newly minted U.S. Treasury secretary urged lawmakers to “act big” with regard to prospective stimulus, saying that the benefits “far outweigh the costs.”And since her worst-kept secret became public on Jan. 18, the USD Index has been under fire ever since. Furthermore, as her words instill the EUR/USD with borrowed confidence, the precious metals are displaying the same bold behavior.Please see below:Figure 7However, despite the narrative overpowering reality, the Eurozone fundamentals don’t support the recent rally. And why is this important? Because as you can see from the chart above, as goes the EUR/USD, so go the PMs.Yesterday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde revealed that the Eurozone economy likely shrank in the fourth quarter – all but sealing a double-dip recession.Please see below:Figure 8 – (Source: Bloomberg/ Holger Zschaepitz)In contrast, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecasting model (as of Jan. 21) has the U.S. economy expanding by 7.5% in Q4. Furthermore, even if we take the Atlanta Fed’s estimate with a grain of salt, the Blue Chip consensus (forecasts made by private-sector economists) is for growth of nearly 4.0% (tallied as of early January). And even more telling, economists with a bottom 10% Q4 GDP forecast ( see Figure 9 - the shaded light blue area below) still expect positive growth.Figure 9The bottom line?We can now add the Eurozone GDP to the long list of relative underperformances.Expanding on the above, European consumer confidence (released yesterday) went backwards again in January and is now less than 10 points above its April low. Furthermore, the current reading is still well-below the long-term average.Figure 10On Jan. 8, I highlighted the significant divergence between European CPI and U.S. CPI (inflation). For context, European CPI was – 0.30% in December (negative for five-straight months), while U.S. CPI was 0.40% in December (positive for seven-straight months).I wrote:Weak CPI is a precursor to a weaker euro. Why so? Because since asset purchases fail to produce any real economic growth, the ECB will be forced to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. As a result, the cocktail of paltry economic activity and lower bond yields leads to capital outflows as foreign (and domestic) investors reallocate money to other geographies (like the U.S.). Thus, capital will likely exit the Eurozone and lead to a lower EUR/USD.And today?Well, it’s exactly what the ECB is doing.Due to the economic malaise confronting Europe, the ECB is targeting its bond-buying activity toward financially weaker counties (like Italy) as opposed to financially stronger countries (like Germany). Essentially, it’s conducting a shadow operation of yield curve control (YCC).Please see below:Figure 11If you analyze the red box above, you can see that Europe’s weighted-average bond yield has increased in 2021. And why is this happening? Because as Europe’s economic deterioration merges with Italy’s fiscal plight, this cocktail has made European bonds riskier, and thus, investors demand a higher interest rate. And while higher interest rates are bullish for a country’s currency when they’re a function of economic growth, a crisis-like spike in yields (due to solvency concerns) means the exact opposite.Furthermore, if you follow the gray bars at the bottom-half of the chart, the ECB actually decreased its bond purchases toward the end of December (2020), Then, once January hit (2021), it was back to business as usual.As a result, the ECB’s attempt to scale back its asset purchases was (and will be) short-lived. And as the economic conditions worsen, the money printer will be working overtime for the foreseeable future.To that point, Bloomberg Economics expects the ECB to purchase €15 billion worth of bonds per week until 2022 – more than doubling its pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) to nearly €1.85 trillion.Please see below:Figure 12And in real-time?Well, the ECB’s balance sheet hit another record-high on Friday (Jan. 15) – with total holdings still at 69% of Eurozone GDP (nearly double the U.S. Fed’s 35%).Figure 13And why does all of this matter?Because, as I highlighted on Jan. 12, the ECB’s relative outprinting is a precursor to a lower EUR/USD.Figure 14I wrote:Turning to the second chart (Figure 6 - on the right), notice how the EUR/USD tracks the FED/ECB ratio? To explain, the ratio (the light blue line) is calculated by dividing the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) balance sheet by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) balance sheet. Essentially, its direction tells you which monetary authority is printing more money. If you analyze the EUR/USD (the dark blue line), it trades higher when the FED is out-printing the ECB (the light blue line is rising) and trades lower when the ECB is out-printing the FED (the light blue line is falling). The key takeaway? With the light blue line falling, it means that the ECB is outprinting the FED . And if this dynamic continues, the EUR/USD (the dark blue line) should move lower as well.The top in the FED/ECB total assets ratio preceded the slide in the EUR/USD less than a decade ago and it seems to be preceding the next slide as well. If the USD Index was to repeat its 2014-2015 rally from the recent lows, it would rally to 114. This level is much more realistic than most market participants would agree on.In conclusion, the EUR/USD’s recent strength is built on a foundation of sand. Instead of following the hard data, traders are letting the narrative cloud their judgment. Moreover, due to their strong correlation with the EUR/USD, gold and silver are falling into the same trap. However, once the semblance of strength evaporates, a decline in the EUR/USD is likely to usher a move lower for the PMs. Furthermore, with gold already approaching the upper trendline of its November consolidation channel, the momentum may wane sooner rather than later.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Dollar Rises to a Two-Month High

Dollar Rises to a Two-Month High

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.02.2021 08:06
EURUSD Touches Down To 1.2050 Level Of Support The euro currency finally fell to the support level of 1.2050, testing the level more firmly. While price action is trading below this level, we could expect to see some consolidating taking place.The Stochastics oscillator is also firmly in the oversold level, it supports the possibility of price action consolidation near this level.However, if the bearish momentum continues, then the euro currency is likely to extend declines further.The next main support level is near 1.1900. However, if resistance forms near the 1.2050 level, the declines can be confirmed.GBPUSD Breaks Down From Ascending Wedge The British pound sterling is extending declines after losing the support from the trendline of the ascending wedge pattern.With price action now clearing the ascending wedge pattern, further downside is likely.As the Stochastics oscillator is now near the oversold level, we could expect to see a rebound in the near term. This could see a short term retracement back to the breakout level once again.To the downside, price action is likely to find support near the Jan 26 swing lows of 1.3610. A break down below this level will confirm further declines to the 1.3500 level of support.WTI Crude Oil Rises To A One-Year High Crude oil price finally broke out from the range it has been in for nearly three weeks. The strong upside breakout pushed the commodity toward a new one-year high.A pullback is likely to occur in the near term toward the upper range near 53.77. Price action will need to break out strongly above the 55.00 level in order to maintain the upside.Given the current momentum, the downside looks a bit limited for the moment.However, this could change if oil prices lose the 53.77 support level. It would once again put price action back within the sideways range.Gold Prices Slip Below 1850 Technical Support The precious metal broke past the 1850 level of support on Tuesday.The declines come as price action was consolidating between the 1850 and 1874 levels. If the current pace of decline continues, then we expect to see a move to the 1817.80 level of support once again.The Stochastics oscillator is moving closer to the oversold levels. Therefore, the support area near 1874 is likely to find support once again.This will keep prices supported above this level for the near term.Given the current momentum, the precious metal is unlikely to breakout above the 1874 level of resistance.
Stocks Need to Consolidate Now, And Gold Will Anyway

Stocks Need to Consolidate Now, And Gold Will Anyway

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.02.2021 16:00
After Monday‘s great rise, stocks continued without much of a pause yesterday too. Did they get ahead of themselves, or not really? And what about those correction calls, is the alarm over now? As said yesterday, the bulk of the correction in stocks, is over. Is it clear skies ahead now? In my very first 2021 analysis 10 days ago, I‘ve called for a not so rosy February ahead. Last Friday, options expired with stocks taking a plunge, so the current month will get an optical boost. I am looking for higher prices, and no correction around the corner. Gold is in a different situation, still basing and unable to keep intraday gains. Having predictably given up the silver short squeeze boost, the search for the local bottom in largely sideways price action continues. That‘s likely to be the case given that the dollar has stabilized and is peeking higher (before eventually moving to new lows, is still my call). Let‘s dive into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook The daily S&P 500 chart looks bullish at first glance – that‘s the V-shape rebound effect. The volume though isn‘t the greatest really. But what about yesterday‘s upper knot though? It looks to me we‘re in for a period of gains digestion. Right now, stocks look vulnerable to retracing part of the advance. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) relative to the S&P 500 (black line) posture improved, and no dissonance to speak of remains. The 3-month Treasuries though haven‘t relented much, and remain well bid. There is not much willingness in the market place to push short-term yields higher, and that‘s a short-term sign of caution. S&P 500 Sectoral Peek Technology (XLK ETF) has recovered, and gapped higher on quite low volume. Approaching its Jan highs, it‘s not though optically in the strongest position, and would do best if it were able to maintain gained ground. Financials (XLF ETF) have rebounded in a sign of cyclicals‘ strength. It‘s very good for the health of the stock bull market to see them perform this well, spreading strength across other sectors. Broad based advance is the hallmark of health. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold has declined, yet Stochastics hasn‘t turned lower just yet, and the volume of the yesterday‘s trading doesn‘t tip the scales either way. In short, gold remains rangebound for now still, and its range isn‘t really a wide one. Silver did slide, as the margin adjustments also thake their toll. The post-December trend of higher highs and higher lows is intact though, and given my yesterday-presented views about the gold-silver ratio, the white metal has a great future ahead of it still. The economy is recovering, this is an industrial metal, and the mining surplus/deficit optics is favorable to silver outperforming gold in the next upleg of this precious metals bull market. The miners, seniors represented by GDX ETF, are still bobbing near the Dec and Jan lows, yet the pattern is thus far still a basing one. Would it bring another push lower as in late January? Looking at the subsequent demand, I don‘t think such an attempt would have an overly long shelf life. Let‘s overlay the GDX chart with GDXJ, which are the junior miners. The riskier, and generally thinly traded ones. Seeing their attempts to outperform since the late November low, is an tipping sign of the sector not really wanting to keep declining much longer. That‘s another reason why I;m calling for much higher precious metals price before spring is over. Just in time for inflation... From the Readers‘ Mailbag Q: Hey Monica…I had wondered where you'd disappeared to for a while there. Welcome back Regarding silver, the gap from monday's breakout filled nicely there, negating an island reversal. Yet, having been out since july, every time I look at the chart, the upside breakout gap of 21 july stares at me like a gaping crevasse on the everest of uptrend beginnings. I know we are going to the moon and back at some point in the next two or three years, but what do you think is the probability of a short term deflationary spike coming up? Maybe another black swan, which would fulfil the dual function of shakeout the nouveau buying masses, and put my mind at rest by filling the gap before takeoff? A: I am back, fully independent thankfully, and won‘t disappear. Well, as you‘ve seen this week, nothing goes to the moon for there are always willing parties to trim the wings… when it starts to hurt. I am also very bullish about precious metals prices as the conditions facilitating them are in place. But I have publicly called the March 2020 crash as the only deflationary spike we‘re going to see. That year, and this year won‘t bring a new crash either. See how well the financial system recovered from GameStop and silver? Margin debt is still rising, and the Fed won‘t contract any time soon. Inflation – not just food, but all commodities (copper, oil, lumber, base metals, agriculture) are broadly advancing, and a great measure of inflation to come and be felt more broadly. I am not really looking for a giant shakeout in precious metals this year really – and by the shape of things, neither in 2022 pr 2023. But remembering how the $1,050 gap in gold got filled in late 2015, I understand your concern, and say that we would get advance signs of such a potential outcome, which aren‘t present currently though. Summary The stock market recovered, and looks set to be digesting prior gains today. The correction indeed remains largely over in terms of prices. Gold is still bidding its time, which is both expected and desirable for the upcoming bull leg. Patience is the name of the game in precious metals currently still. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals.
S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not?

S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 12.02.2021 16:50
Stocks are clinging to the 3,900 level, and the bulls aren‘t yielding. Without much fanfare, both the sentiment readings and put/call ratio are at the greed and compacent end of the spectrum again. How long can it last, and what shape the upcoming correction would have? Right now, the warning signs are mounting, yet the bears shouldn‘t put all their eggs into the correction basket really, for it shapes to be a shallow one – one in time, rather than in price.Gold‘s hardship is another cup of tea, standing in stark comparison to how well silver and platinum are doing. At the same time, the dollar hasn‘t really moved to the upside – there is no dollar breakout. If the greenback were to break to the upside, that would mean a dollar bull market, which I don't view as a proposition fittingly describing the reality – I called the topping dollar earlier this week. The world reserve currency will remain on the defensive this year, and we saw not a retest, but a local top.This has powerful implications for the precious metals, where the only question is whether we get a weak corrective move to the downside still, or whether we can base in a narrow range, followed by another upleg (think spring). February isn't the strongest month for precious metals seasonally, true, but it isn't a disaster either. As has been the case throughout the week, I‘ll update and present the evidence of internal sectoral strength also today.One more note concerning the markets – in our print-and-spend-happy world, where the give or take $1.9T stimulus will sooner or later come in one way or another, we better prepare on repricing downside risk in the precious metals, and also better not to fixate on the premature bubble pop talk too closely. I have been stating repeatedly that things have to get really ridiculous first, and this just doesn‘t qualify yet in my view. All those serious correction calls have to wait – in tech and elsewhere, for we‘re going higher overall – like it or not.Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsThird day of hesitation, this time again with a thrust to the downside. Marginally increasing volume, which speaks of not too much conviction by either side yet. As the very short-term situation remains tense, my yesterday‘s words still apply today:(…) I think this corrective span has a bit further to run in time really. (…) the bears are just rocking the boat, that‘s all.The market breadth indicators are deteriorating, without stock prices actually following them down. Thus far, the correction is indeed shaping to be one in time and characterized by mostly sideways trading. Unless you look at the following chart.Volatility has died down recently, yet a brief spike (not reaching anywhere high, just beating the 24 level) wouldn‘t be unimaginable to visit us by the nearest Wednesday. In all likelihood, it would be accompanied by lower stock prices. Well worth watching.Credit Markets and TechThere is a growing discrepancy between high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and its investment grade counterpart (LQD ETF). Both leading credit market ratios have been diverging not only since the end of Jan, but practically throughout 2021. The theme of rising yields is exerting pressure on the higher end of the debt market as the stock investment fever goes on – that‘s my take.No, this is not a bubble – not a parabolic one. The tech sector is gradually assuming leadership in the S&P 500 advance, accompanied by microrotations as value goes into favor and falls out of it, relatively speaking. Higher highs are coming, earnings are doing great, and valuations aren‘t an issue still.Gold, Silver and RatiosUnder pressure right as we speak ($1,815), the yellow metal‘s technical outlook hasn‘t flipped bearish. Should we get to last Thursday‘s lows, it would happen on daily indicators ready to flash a bullish divergence once prices stabilize. But for all the intense bearish talk, we haven‘t broken below the late Nov lows.For those inclined so, I am raising the arbitrage trade possibility. Long silver, short gold would be consistent with my prior assessment of the gold-silver ratio going down. Similarly to bullish gold bets, that‘s a longer-term trade, which however wouldn‘t likely take much patience to unfold and stick.A bullish chart showing that gold isn‘t following the rising yields all that closely these days. Decoupling from the Treasury yields is a positive sign for the sector, and exactly what you would expect given the (commodity) inflation and twin deficits biting.Silver continues to trade in its bullish consolidation, and unlike in gold, its short-term bullish flag formation remains intact. The path of least resistance for the white metal remains higher.Gold juniors (black line) keep their relative strength vs. the senior gold miners, and the mining sector keeps sending bullish signals, especialy when silver miners enter the picture.SummaryThe stock market tremors aren‘t over, and the signs of deterioration keep creeping in. The bull run isn‘t however in jeopardy, and there are no signals thus far pointing to an onset of a deeper correction right now.The gold bulls find it harder to defend their gains, unlike the silver ones. That‘s the short-term objective situation, regardless of expansive monetary and fiscal policies, real economy recovery, returning inflation and declining U.S. dollar. The new upleg keeps knocking on the door, and patience will be richly rewarded.
It‘s Only Tech That‘s Sold – Not S&P 500, Gold Or Silver

It‘s Only Tech That‘s Sold – Not S&P 500, Gold Or Silver

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.02.2021 15:52
S&P 500 is getting under modest pressure, and technology is to blame. Is the correction about to turn nasty from sideways? Still no signs of that, even as the investment grade corporate bonds are being sold of as hard as long-term Treasuries. Yet, these corporate instruments have only now broken below their late Oct lows – unlike long-dated Treasuries, whose price action resembles free fall.These government debt instruments are arguably the key asset class for every precious metals investor to watch. What used to be gentle decoupling signs over the latest weeks and months, got thoroughly tested the prior week. Yet, I stood firm in not calling gold down and out. The support zone at late Nov lows generated a rebound that was oh so likely to materialize.Silver naturally outperformed, both copper and oil had a strong day, and agrifoods are making new highs. The inflation dynamics described in Friday‘s article aptly called Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals, continues unabated, and the pressure keeps building inside the metals and commodities. Not even the dollar managed to benefit from the rising yields – the resumption of its bear market I called on Feb 08, is one of the 2021 themes. Money keeps flowing from the Treasuries market, and there is plenty sitting on the sidelines (corporate or private) to still deploy and power stocks and precious metals higher. Also those ready to withstand Bitcoin volatility (hello, the weekend Elon Musk tweet follow through), stand to benefit – cryptos are behaving like a store of value, a hedge against currency debasement. I wrote in my very first 2021 analysis that the Bitcoin correction wouldn‘t get far.Powell‘s testimony is about to bring volatility, but does it have the power to change underlying trends? Not really – while his latest high profile assessments brought about a downswing, stocks recovered in spite of the GameStop (contagion?) drama too. Should we see a replay of the above, new highs are coming – and they are, in both stocks and precious metals. We‘re in a commodities supercycle on top!Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe daily chart shows yesterday‘s turn of events clearly. The volume increased, indicating that the bulls will need to grapple with more downside.Both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume have curled noticeably, yet new highs new lows continues higher. That‘s a confirmation of the broad based nature of the stock market advance, further illustrated with the following chart.What if all the constituent shares in the S&P 500 had equal weight (i.e. there is no $NYFANG)? The above chart is the reflection – and it‘s challenging the latest highs. The rotation theme I‘m discussing so often, means in this case taking the baton from tech, and seeing it pass to value stocks. Such broad advance is a healthy characteristic of bull runs far from making a top.TechnologyHere is the culprit behind yesterday‘s decline – on increasing volume, technology (XLK ETF) has plunged. Yet it‘s the semiconductors (XSD ETF) that I am looking at for clues as to how reasonable has the decline been. And given how the tech is holding up, it‘s a bit accentuated.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is still behaving reasonably – the overlaid S&P 500 prices (black line) aren‘t accelerating to the downside. Thus far, everything keeps pointing to stocks behaving a bit more sensitively than throughout 2021 mostly, yet far from crashing or showing their readiness to. The real correction has to wait still – this is not the real deal.Gold, Silver and TreasuriesGold price action indeed proved not to be as bearish. Finally, we‘re seeing a clear refusal to move down even as Treasury yields continue to plunge. How long will this new dynamics stick, where would it take the yellow metal? I treat it as a valuable first swallow.The scissors between gold and silver keep widening, and the white metal again outperformed yesterday. That‘s exactly the dynamics of the new precious metals upleg that I‘m expecting.Both depicted miners to gold ratios show a clear pattern of post Nov resilience. GDX:GLD is not breaking to new lows, while $HUI:$GOLD rejected them. Bobbing around, searching for a local bottom before launching higher? That‘s my leading scenario.SummaryThe unfolding correction got a new twist with yesterday‘s downswing in stocks, and unless tech gets its act together, appears set to run further. Emerging markets fell harder than the Russell 2000 yesterday, which is another proof that the correction isn‘t yet over.Gold and silver price action remain encouraging, and the same can be said about oil and many other commodities. Once the stimulus bill is passed, the positive fundamentals that are going to turn even more so, given the Fed‘s accomodative policies. Will these work to stave off the rising Treasury yields as well? If so, then gold‘s fundamentals got a crucial boost, which would soon be seen in the technicals too. As I wrote yesterday, the metals didn‘t get a knock-out blow – the medium- and long-term outlook remains bright, and too many market players on the short side in the short run, means a high likelihood of a reversal – which is precisely what we saw.
How Bond Yields Are Affecting Gold

How Bond Yields Are Affecting Gold

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.02.2021 17:54
As U.S. Treasury yields rise, gold, which is seen as an inflation hedge, is hurting. Despite the obvious warning signs, investors remain bullish.After Monday’s (Feb. 22) supposedly “groundbreaking” rally, the situation in gold developed in tune with what I wrote yesterday . The rally stopped, and miners’ decline indicated that it was a counter-trend move.Figure 1Despite Monday’s (quite sharp for a daily move) upswing, the breakdown below the neck level of the broad head-and-shoulders remains intact. It wasn’t invalidated. In fact, based on Monday’s rally and yesterday’s (Feb. 23) decline, it was verified. One of the trading guidelines is to wait for the verification of the breakdown below the H&S pattern before entering a position.What about gold stocks ratio with other stocks?Figure 2It’s exactly the same thing. The breakdown below the rising long-term support line remains intact. The recent upswing was just a quick comeback to the broken line that didn’t take it above it. Conversely, the HUI to S&P 500 ratio declined once again.Consequently, bearish implications of the breakdowns remain up-to-date . Having said that, let’s consider the more fundamental side of things.Swimming Against the CurrentAfter trading lower for six consecutive days, gold managed to muster a three-day winning streak. However, with the waves chopping and the ripple gaining steam, every swim higher requires more energy and yield’s decelerating results.For weeks , I’ve been warning that a declining copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio signaled a further downside for gold. And with the ratio declining by 2.88% last week, gold suffered a 2.51% drawdown.Please see below:Figure 3Over the long-term, the ratio is a reliable predictor of the yellow metal’s future direction. And even though the weekly reading (3.04) hit its lowest level since May 2020, it still has plenty of room to move lower.Figure 4For context, I wrote previously:To explain the chart above, the red line depicts the price of gold over the last ~21 years, while the green line depicts the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio. As you can see, the two have a tight relationship: when the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio is rising (meaning that copper prices are rising at a faster pace than the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield), it usually results in higher gold prices. Conversely, when the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio is falling (meaning that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is rising at a faster pace than copper prices), it usually results in lower gold prices.As the star of the ratio’s show, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has risen by more than 47% year-to-date (YTD) and the benchmark has surged by more than 163% since its August trough.Please see below:Figure 5On Jan. 15 , I warned that the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) had painted itself into a corner. With inflation running hot and Chairman Jerome Powell ignoring the obvious, I wrote that Powell’s own polices (and their impact on real and financial assets) actually eliminate his ability to determine when interest rates rise.As a result, the central bank had two options:If they let yields rise, the cost of borrowing rises, the cost of equity rises and the U.S. dollar is supported (all leading to shifts in the bond and stock markets and destroying the halcyon environment they worked so hard to create).To stop yields from rising, the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) has to increase its asset purchases (and buy more bonds in the open market). However, the added liquidity should have the same net-effect because it increases inflation expectations (which I mentioned yesterday, is a precursor to higher interest rates). Opening door #2, Powell’s deny-and-suppress strategy is now playing out in real time. On Feb. 23 – testifying before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee – the FED Chairman told lawmakers that inflation isn’t an issue.“We’ve been living in a world for a quarter of a century where the pressures were disinflationary,” he said.... “The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals.”And whether he’s unaware or simply ill-informed, commodity prices are surging. Since the New Year, oil and lumber prices have risen by more than 24%, while corn and copper prices are up by more than 14%.Please see below:Figure 6In addition, relative to finished goods, the entire basket of inputs is sounding the alarm.Figure 7To explain the chart above, the blue line is an index of the price businesses receive for their finished goods. Similarly, the green line is an index of the price businesses pay for raw materials. As you can see, the cost of doing business is rising at a torrent pace.More importantly though, Powell’s assertion that inflation is an urban legend has been met with eye rolls from the bond market . To repeat what I wrote above: Powell’s own policies (and their impact on real and financial assets) actually eliminate his ability to determine when interest rates rise.Case in point: the U.S. 10-year to 2-year government bond spread is now at its highest level since January 2017.Please see below:Figure 8To explain the significance, the figure is calculated by subtracting the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield from the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield. When the green line is rising, it means that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is increasing at a faster pace than the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield. Conversely, when the green line is falling, it means that the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield is increasing at a faster pace than the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield.And why does all of this matter?Because the above visual is evidence that Powell has lost control of the bond market.At the front-end of the curve, Powell can control the 2-year yield by decreasing the FED’s overnight lending rate (which was cut to zero at the outset of the coronavirus crisis). However, far from being monolithic, the 5-, 10-, and 30-year yields have the ability to chart their own paths.And their current message to the Chairman? “We aren’t buying what you’re selling.” As such, the yield curve is likely to continue its steepening stampede.Circling back to gold, all of the above supports a continued decline of the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio. With yields essentially released from captivity, even copper’s 8.02% weekly surge wasn’t enough to buck the trend.As a result, gold’s recent strength is likely a mirage. The yellow metal continues to bounce in fits and starts, thus, it’s only a matter of time before the downtrend continues. Furthermore, with the USD Index still sitting on the sidelines, a resurgent greenback would add even more concrete to gold’s wall of worry.And speaking of gold’s wall of worry, the sentiment surrounding it is far from being negative.Figure 9 - Source: Investing.comThe above chart shows the sentiment of Investing.com’s members. 64% of them are bullish on gold. As you can see above, there are also other popular markets listed: the S&P 500, Dow Jones, DAX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD Index, and Crude oil. The sentiment for gold is the most bullish of all of them. Yes, the general stock market is climbing to new all-time highs every day now, and yet, people are even more bullish on gold than they are on stocks.When gold slides, the sentiment is likely to get more bearish and particularly high “bearish” readings – say, over 80% would likely indicate a good buying opportunity. Naturally, this is not the only factor that one should be paying attention to.The bottom line? As it stands today, being long the precious metals offers a poor risk-reward proposition. However, in time (perhaps over the next several months), the dynamic will reverse, and the precious metals market will shine once again.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBPUSD Holds Steady Above 1.41

GBPUSD Holds Steady Above 1.41

John Benjamin John Benjamin 26.02.2021 09:21
USD gives back gains as risk currencies riseEuro Rises To A Three-Month High The euro currency finally broke past the resistance area of 1.2177 – 1.2144. The breakout pushed the common currency to a three-month high on an intraday basis.The gains come as the US dollar failed to maintain its reversal on Wednesday.If the current momentum continues then we might get to see the Euro once again attempting to test the 6 January highs of 1.2349.However, ahead of these gains, a pullback to establish support near 1.2177 would be ideal.For the moment, the EURUSD is still not out of the woods unless we see a higher low forming above the resistance area.The British pound sterling is giving back the gains from Wednesday. The declines come as the cable rose to a new three and half year high earlier this week.The current declines come as investors head into the weekend with the drop likely coming as a result of profit-taking.The GBP currency has enjoyed a strong rally and got an additional boost as the UK is already preparing plans for re-opening its economy.For the moment the pullback is likely to be met with skepticism. A continuation below Wednesday’s low of 1.4080 could, however, see the currency pair making a short-term correction.The downside could be supported near the round number 1.4000 level.Crude Oil Holds Steady At A 13-Month High Oil prices are steady after rising to a new 13-month high. The gains come as the latest report shows a drop in US Crude oil output.The weaker dollar is also helping the commodity to maintain its hold. For the moment, prices are supported near the trendline.Still, even a close below the trendline could keep the upside bias intact.The support area near 60.87 will hold the prices from posting further declines.But a close below 60.87 could potentially open the way for oil prices to fall further. This could see the 57.35 level coming under scrutiny next.Gold Prices Slip As Treasury Yields Rise The precious metal continues to trade weak with price action extending declines for a third consecutive day.The declines come as Treasury yields are rising higher. Investors are betting that the global economy will re-open quicker than anticipated with appetite for further stimulus falling.Gold prices have been trading within the 1817 and 1764 levels since the middle of February.We expect this sideways range to continue.To the downside, gold prices will likely retest the previously formed support at 1764.22.
Will There Be Roaring Twenties for Gold?

Will There Be Roaring Twenties for Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 26.02.2021 16:59
The 2020s might be less roaring than the 1920s, which seems like good news for gold.The United States is strongly polarized, with blue versus red, liberals versus conservatives, and so on. People are divided along many lines, but the biggest division line is between those who count decades from 0 to 9 and those who count them from 1 to 10. It is intuitive for many people to adopt the first method, especially that we think of decades as ‘the 20s’, ‘the 30s’, and so on. However, the catch is that there was no Year Zero, so the first decade of the common era was years 1 to 10. Following this logic, the current decade started on January 1, 2021, not January 1, 2020.So, I feel fully entitled to investigate how gold will behave in the new decade. The issue is especially interesting as some analysts claim that we are entering the Roaring Twenties 2.0. Are they correct?On the surface, there are some similarities. The 1920s were a decade that followed the nightmare of World War I and the Spanish Flu pandemic . It was a time of quick economic growth (the U.S. GDP grew more than 40 percent in that period) and rapid technological innovation fueled predominantly by the rising access to electricity and big improvements in transportation (automobiles and planes).Fast forward one century and we land in the 2020s, which is a decade following the nightmare of the coronavirus pandemic . There are hopes for an acceleration in technological progress driven mainly by the rising scope of remote work, digital solutions, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, 5G networks, robotization, super-batteries, electric vehicles, and so on. And given the pent-up demand and months spent in lockdowns, consumers are ready to congregate and spend!However, there are good reasons to be skeptical about the narrative of the Roaring Twenties 2.0 . The era of post-war prosperity was fueled by the return to the normalcy in the sphere of economic policy. I refer here to the fact that after WWI, there was a successful transition from a wartime economy to a peacetime economy. In contrast, in the aftermath of the Great Recession , there is a gradual transition from the peacetime economy to a wartime economy, that was only accelerated during the epidemic and the Great Lockdown .In particular, both the government spending and the fiscal deficits were sharply reduced in the post-war era. In consequence, the U.S. public debt declined, especially in real terms. Similarly, the Fed reversed its monetary policy and allowed for monetary contraction (and quick recession) in 1919-20 to reverse wartime inflation .In other words, the tighter monetary and fiscal policies led to an environment of economic prosperity. Also helpful for the U.S. were developments such as trustbusting and an economic recovery in Germany after its hyperinflation – all developments that will not replay in the 2020s.In contrast, neither the fiscal policy nor the monetary policy are going to normalize anytime soon , even if the COVID-19 pandemic is brought under control. The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion under Trump’s presidency – a level that rivals Italy’s. The debt-to-GDP ratio has soared, as the chart below shows. And Joe Biden doesn’t worry about deficits – instead, with his plan of $1.9 trillion economic stimulus, he is going to balloon the public debt even further by increasing government spending.But maybe we shouldn’t worry about the debt? After all, after WW2, the public debt was even higher, but the economy didn’t collapse – actually, it grew so rapidly that the debt-to-GDP ratio diminished significantly. Yup, that’s correct, but after the pandemic, the economy will not recover as quickly as in the aftermath of WW2. Oh, and by the way, the economy grew its way out of debt only thanks to several years of high inflation .Therefore, the current complacency and naïve belief in low- interest rates and debt-driven economic recovery makes the scenario of the Roaring Twenties 2.0 not very likely, despite all the fantastic technological progress we are observing. So, instead of acceleration, we could rather observe an economic slowdown due to the poor economic policy that hampers the expansion of the private sector. Indeed, the recent report by the World Bank warns about the lost decade: “If history is any guide, unless there are substantial and effective reforms, the global economy is heading for a decade of disappointing growth outcomes.” This is good news for the gold market.But even if the Roaring Twenties 2.0 do happen, it wouldn’t have to be very bad for the yellow metal. It’s true that the 1920s was a period of wealth, prosperity, and decadence in which people didn’t think about preserving capital and investing in safe-haven assets such as gold . In contrast, there was a lot of risk-taking fueling the boom in the stock market. However, the Roaring Twenties were an inflationary period of debt-driven growth that ended in the systemic economic crisis called the Great Depression – and gold can shine in such an macroeconomic environment .Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
STIMULUS AND CONSUMERS ARE THE KEYS TO FURTHER US/GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY – PART II

STIMULUS AND CONSUMERS ARE THE KEYS TO FURTHER US/GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY – PART II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 09.03.2021 13:46
This is a continuation of our extended technical review of what my research team and I believe will be required for the US/Global markets to enter a stronger post-COVID-19 recovery phase. If you missed Part I of this research series then you can find it here: www.thetechnicaltraders.com/stimulus-and-consumers-are-the-keys-to-further-us-global-economic-recovery-part-i/. In this Part II, we will look at how potential currency shifts will prompt new trending in various economic sectors.   The past 20+ years have really changed how the markets operate from a standpoint of capital deployment and capital function.  We certainly live in interesting times from a trader and investor perspective. There is more capital floating around the globe right now than ever before... and that changes certain things.The Components Of A Frenzied Global MarketThe first and most notable change is to create volatility at levels we have really never seen before.  The average daily price range on the QQQ or SPY charts is more than 3x historical price range levels.  This simple fact shows that a 1% price range, which used to be considered a moderately large price range for the price to move, is now considered a below normal range.  This new level of volatility has applied to many of the largest SPY and NASDAQ-related stock symbols over the past few years as capital was deployed into various sectors with increasing speed and volition.We profit from volatility by using non-directional options trading strategies.Watch our webinar on How To Become An Options Strategy Master now!The US and global central banks have continued to deploy easy money policies since the 2008-09 Housing/Credit crisis which has perpetuated a Roaring-20s type of mentality throughout the world.  Even though we could point out certain nations that are underperforming economically, generally the world has seen an unprecedented rise in credit, debt, and associated spending capabilities over the past 10+ years.  This level of unusual economic expansion comes with certain consequences, similar to the expansion that led up to the 2008-09 Housing/Credit crisis.It also has to be noted that COVID-19 has really altered the way consumers are engaging in the economy right now.  Online, stay-at-home, avoid outside risks type of activities have really become the new normal. Many sociologists continue to suggest consumers may be slower to move back into old economic habits (pre-COVID-19 spending habits).  This change in how people perceive risks and adopt new economic processes will likely lead to a rise in digital productivity, the adoption of technology solutions, and a change of spending habits, which could prompt a much bigger transition for certain market sectors that have been overlooked recently.Watch Chris and Neil Present at The Mad Hedge Traders and Investors Summit - Click to Register for FREE!One thing that has certainly benefited from COVID-19 is the number of new investors/traders plying their skills (and hard-earned cash) in the markets.  We've never seen anything like this explosive growth in retail market participation over the past 20+ years.  The closest we've come to this level of retail trader participation in the equities and financial markets was in 1998~99 during the height of the DOT COM bubble.  This incredible consumer participation in the global equities trends/trading has helped propel many US major indexes/sectors to incredible heights – and it may not end any time soon.The following Monthly ratio chart, comparing the growth in the QQQ, SPY, and GOLD since January 1, 2009 (the anchor price) highlights how the frenzy of investing really started to accelerate after 2012 and began to move into a parabolic trend in 2016.  If you follow the MAGENTA QQQ ratio after the vertical dateline on this chart, you will see how early 2017 started a dramatic acceleration in volatility and trending as the QQQ accelerated higher by more than +186%.  Meanwhile, the SPY, which was somewhat overlooked throughout this rally phase, moved higher by only +85%.Where is the Consumer?  Has The Consumer Really Retreated Because Of COVID-19?One prime example of this frenzy is this recent Yahoo! Finance story about burned Banksy Art which sold for over $390,000 as a Non-Fungible Token. The idea that anyone would buy a burned piece of art for this price shows that money has turned into a game for some people.  The gamification of wealth has likely transitioned into global social thinking in ways that we have not even considered yet.Even though we've highlighted how the global equity/financial markets have rallied considerably over the past 5+ years, we still need to see the consumer reenter the economy in a more traditional sense. This M1 Velocity of Money chart shows that after the 2009 peak, the velocity of money, the rate at which money is exchanged within an economy, has collapsed to levels we have not seen in 60+ years, and quite possibly below levels relative to the Great Depression (1930s).So, what's happening in the world right now to present these types of charts/data?  How can the world be flush with capital/cash and the data show that the consumer is still actively engaged in purchasing various items, which include very active engagement in the global equity markets and speculative trading positions, while the M1 Velocity of Money data shows an incredible collapse after COVID-19 hit?The answer is simple.  The US Federal Reserve has pushed more cash into the global economy over the past 10+ years than at any time in history (more than $16 Trillion since 2009).  Prior to that date the total amount of capital/debt the US Fed only pushed a total of $10.6 Trillion into the economy over a 40-year time span.  There is nearly 3x the total number of US dollars floating around the globe right now than at any time since prior to the 1950s.Eventually, we are certain that, this extended cash will translate into GDP growth – which will strengthen the Velocity of Money ratio over time.  What it will take is for the economy and the consumer to transition into a new form of expansion related to the post-COVID-19/post Technology euphoria that is currently taking place.Over the next 20 to 30+ years, we are going to see some very big trends in various sectors and commodities.  The global central banks have pushed so much capital out into the world that, once it finds its true economic purpose, we believe the function of this capital will be deployed into various economic components in ways we have not even considered yet.  New industry, new forms of consumer products, and consumer participation will likely evolve where capital can be put to use to improve the GDP levels.  Cryptos may be the start, a stepping stone, toward a much more dynamic solution for how capital is used and deployed within the global marketplace.Don’t miss the opportunities to profit from the broad market sector rotations we expect this year, which will be an incredible year for traders of my Best Asset Now (BAN) strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets.For those who believe in the power of trading sectors that show relative strength and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day, let my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service do all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my BAN Trader Pro subscribers.In Part III of this research article, my team and I will continue to explore the future possibilities and make some suggestions as to how you can prepare for these big trends right now.  Remember, this is a longer-term outlook of opportunities for traders/investors.  The real gains related to this research will come 5 to 10+ years out into the future if you are able to identify how and where capital is being deployed for gains. Have a great day!
Is Silver the New Gold?

Is Silver the New Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 26.03.2021 14:30
Many analysts expect silver to outperform gold this year. It’s possible, but investors shouldn’t count on improving economic conditions and industrial demand.Silver has recently become a hot investment theme. For months, if not years, some analysts claimed that silver is undervalued relative to gold. Then, at the beginning of 2021, Reddit revolutionaries tried to trigger a short squeeze in silver. Although that attempt failed, silver has, so far, clearly been outperforming gold this year , as the chart below shows. So, is silver now a better investment than gold?Well, why would it be? After all, many investors buy silver for the same reasons that they purchase gold – it’s a rare, monetary metal which may be used as an inflation hedge , a safe-haven asset against tail risks , or a portfolio diversifier . It’s just cheaper than gold – and this is why it’s often called the poor man’s gold.Indeed, silver has a very high positive correlation with gold . Just take a look at the chart below, which illustrates the movement of gold and silver prices since April 1968. The shapes of the lines are very similar and the correlation coefficient is as high as 0.90!On the other hand, silver may indeed outperform gold. After all, silver has a dual nature. It is not only a monetary asset – like gold – but also an industrial commodity. This implies that silver is more business cycle -sensitive than gold. Therefore, given that the global economy is recovering from the deep recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the Great Lockdown , silver may outperform gold. In other words, although both gold and silver could benefit from reflation during the recovery, improving economic conditions could support the latter metal more .Another argument for silver shining brighter than gold in 2021 is the historical pattern according to which silver prices tend to follow gold prices with some lag, just to catch up with them later – often overreacting compared with gold’s behavior.So much for theory. Let’s move on to the data now and analyze the previous economic crisis , i.e., the Great Recession , and the following recovery. As the chart below shows, both metals moved generally in tandem, however, silver was more volatile than gold .For example, from its local bottom in mid-2007 to its local peak in early 2008, silver rose 79 percent, while gold “only” 57 percent. Then, in the first phase of the global financial crisis , silver plunged 58 percent (from $20.92 to $8.88), while gold slid 30 percent (from $1011.25 to $712.5). Subsequently, silver skyrocketed 448 percent, reaching a peak of $48.7 in April 2011. Meanwhile, the price of gold reached its peak of $1875 a little bit later, in September 2011, gaining 166 percent. Finally, silver plunged 46 percent by the end of 2011, while gold dropped only 19 percent. This shows that the economic recovery and industrial revival that followed the Great Recession didn’t help silver to shine. Actually, the bluish metal underperformed gold .Similarly, silver plunged more than gold (25 versus 17 percent) in the run-up to the burst of the dot-com bubble , as one can see in the chart below. It also gained less than gold in the aftermath of the 2001 recession (25.4 versus 27.5 percent), and then it plunged in the third quarter of 2002, significantly underperforming gold.Therefore, the recent history doesn’t confirm the view that silver should be outperforming gold in the early stages of a recovery, because it’s an industrial commodity that benefits from improving economic conditions. Silver was never in a bullish mode when gold was in a bear market, and it rather tends to rally rapidly in the late stage of the commodity cycle, like in the 2000s.Actually, one can argue that silver has the best period behind itself. After all, it soared 141 percent from late March to September 2020, while gold rallied “only” 40 percent. So, it might be the case that the catch-up period, in which silver outperforms gold, is already behind us. Indeed, as the chart below shows, the gold-to-silver ratio has recently declined to a more traditional range of 60-70.This, of course, doesn’t mean that silver cannot rise further. However, it seems that the metal has already caught up somewhat with its more precious cousin . So, it’s possible that silver can outperform gold in 2021, as Biden’s focus on renewable energy may help silver – as a major part of the metal used in industry is now linked to solar panels and electronics, but history teaches us that investors shouldn’t count on industrial demand . Silver didn’t outperform gold during recoveries from the previous recessions. Although silver has a dual nature, its price is highly correlated with gold prices. Therefore, macroeconomic factors, such as the U.S. dollar , real interest rates , risk appetite, inflation , public debt , monetary policy , fiscal policy , etc., should have a stronger impact on silver than industrial demand . As always, those entering the silver market should remember that silver price movements are more violent than in the gold market.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Stocks: big moves!

Stocks: big moves!

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 31.03.2021 11:05
Stepping up the ladder to 4000 The stock market keeps steadily going upwards towards the mark of 4000. While there have been and will be inevitable dropdowns below the support of the 50-MA, the overall trend is a clear uptrend. What's important is that the recent turbulence was not as high as the one in September-October - that's a sure sign of true recovery and stabilization of the economy seen in the corporate environment. Having that as a background, let's review particular stocks now. Tweeting down No one can deny Elon Musk the liberty to say whatever he finds necessary on Twitter. That doesn't mean it does any good to the valuation of Tesla, though. Sometimes we may even think that he does it intentionally like that time when he said that Tesla's value is too high - and the stock dropped. The announcement that Tesla may be bought with Bitcoins didn't prevent the stock price from going down. Partially, because of another controversial tweet about unions that the US authorities are considering as a possible threat to labor union participants. On the other side, there was another comment that Elon Musk tweeted - and eventually deleted is that very soon, Tesla may weigh more than Apple. Whatever there is, the support of 550 is there, and it may be reached again. At the same time, a bounce upwards is also possible. For this reason, if you're considering taking a rather risky mid-term position, you may think of buying Tesla - that's if you're ready to hold out enough time until it starts recovering. Because when it does, then from the current $600 to the all-time high of $900 it's a 50% value growth potential. Chinese affairs Alibaba is now under double pressure. First, Jack Ma's company is under direct pressure, scrutiny, and counteraction from the side of the Chinese authorities. Second, strategically, global geopolitical tension between China and the "Western world" growing around the Uyghur region is making the future of Alibaba even more cloudy than it is now. In any case, the stock is now at nine-month lows. Moreover, it trades above the support zone of 215-220. Technically, a bounce upwards is very possible. If it happens, then there is the entire $100 above to meet the all-time high again. Potentially, it's an almost 50% value gain possibility - that may take a few months, though. Therefore, Alibaba may be a risky buy for a long-term strategy. Or, observe it further as fundamentally, grounds are shaking beneath Jack Ma's feet. Beating everyone Shooting up from $50 to $54, Coca-Cola performed as well as never since the start of the recovery. Definitely, it's one of the best performers of the S&P 500 so far. Fundamentally, it has a very good business outlook. Sales are going better and better, most observers suggest it's a buy stock - for a long-term scenario. For the short-term, though, you have to take into account that this growth was really aggressive. Not that it never happens in the stock market but this stock has been oscillating between the two sides of the indicated channel since March. Currently, it's in an upswing. However, observe it closely as it approaches $55. At or slighly above that mark, it may reverse to do a technical correction - in this case, it may go all the way down to $51-52. Therefore, observe possible reversal pattern in the shotrt-term - they may occur at any time. Remember that you can trade stocks not only through Metatrader 5 but also through the FBS Trader app!
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger

S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.04.2021 15:13
Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value swinging higher as well. Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.Stocks are more focused on the tidal wave of liquidity rather than the tax increases that follow behind. So far, it‘s still reflation – tame inflation expectations given the avalanche of fresh money, real economy slowly but surely heating up (non-farm payrolls beat expectations on Friday), and not about the long-term consequences of tax hikes:(…) Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.And as the falling yields were embraced by tech with open arms, the sector‘s leadership in the S&P 500 upswing is back. As you‘ll see further on, the market breadth isn‘t pitiful either – slight non-confirmation yes, but I am looking for it to be gradually resolved with yet another price upswing, and that means more open profits (that‘s 7 winning stock market 2021 trades in a row).The Fed thus far quite succeeded in passing the inflation threat off as transitory, but the rebalancing into a higher inflation envrionment is underway – just look at the bullish consolidation across many commodities.The crucial copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio is slowly turning higher as the red metal defends gained ground, oil rebound is progressing and lumber is moving to new highs. And don‘t forget the surging soybeans and corn either. Apart from having positive influence upon S&P 500 materials or real estate sectors, precious metals have welcomed the turn, rebounding off the double bottom with miners‘ leadership and silver not getting too hot yet. And that‘s positive for the white metal‘s coming strong gains – let alone the yellow one‘s.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Its InternalsSlightly lower volume during the whole week and Friday is merely a short-term non-confirmation. It isn’t a burning issue as stocks closed the week on a strong note. The bullish price action on the heels of improving credit markets and technology-led S&P 500 upswing, has good chances of going on.See by how much market breadth improved vs. Thursday – both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume turned reasonably higher, and given the tech leadership in the upswing, new highs new lows merely levelled off. For them to turn higher, value stocks would have to step to the fore again.Credit MarketsThe high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio confirmed the stock market upswing with its own bullish move, and the two are overlaid quite nicely at the moment. No whiff of non-confirmation here.Tech and ValueTech (XLK ETF) rose strongly, and value stocks (VTV ETF) stocks more than defended prior gains. Even financials (XLF ETF) moved higher, regardless of the rising Treasuries. The breadth of the stock market advance isn‘t weak at all, after all.Gold in the SpotlightLet‘s quote the assessment from my Easter update:(…) There had been indeed something about the gold decoupling from rising Treasury yields that I had been raising for countless weeks. The rebound off Mar 08 low retest is plain out in the open, miners keep outperforming on the upside, and the precious metals sector faces prospects of gradual recovery, basing with a tendency to trade higher before the awaited Fed intervention on the long end of the curve comes – should the market force its hand mightily enough. Either way for now, given the rising inflation and inflation expectations, a retreat in nominal rates translates into a decline in real rates, which is what gold loves.That‘s the dynamic of calm days – once the Fed finally even hints at capping yields, expect gold fireworks. Remember, the ECB, Australia and others are in that fight at the long end of the curve already. And with so much inflation in the pipeline as the PPI underscores, an inflationary spike is virtually baked in the cake.Another weekly gold chart, this time with miners overlaid. Since the Mar 08 bottom, their outperformance has become very apparent, and miners made a higher high as gold approached the bottom last week. Coupled with the waning power of the sellers, these are positive signs for the precious metals sector.Gold‘s daily chart reveals the rebound‘s veracity – just as sharp as the dive to the second bottom was. Silver moved higher, scoring smaller gains than the yellow metal, which isn‘t however an issue as the white metal tends to outperform in the latter stages of precious metals upswings. We aren‘t there yet, and haven‘t seen it outperform in mid-Mar either.SummaryS&P 500 has challenged and conquered the 4,000 mark, and the upswing‘s internals keep being aligned bullishly. No sharp correction in sight indeed.Precious metals rebound lives on, accompanied by the miners‘ outperformance. Copper and many commodities keep consolidating, which is actually bullish given the retreat in yields. Another confirmation of the approaching upleg in commodities and precious metals as inflation starts running hotter and hotter.
Plan, Scan, Execute

Plan, Scan, Execute

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 16.04.2021 14:31
Plan:First, you need to set a goal like: “I want to become a consistently profitable trader.”Secondly, you want each day to look at the market from a top-down perspective (large time frames first). Then plan your game plan for the next day (see our daily call).Thirdly, be precise in what you will be scanning for the next day (i.e., sideways days fade highs and buy double bottoms, directional days: fade in the direction of the trend and don’t counter-trend trade).Also, select times for execution (every day the same time segment).Scan:On the day of a possible execution, one is now fortified with a clear set of rules on what to look for and primarily on what not to do. This allows for participation with reduced risk to get sucked into market action on smaller time frames. Instead, you shouldidentify pre-planned patternsdetermine sensible low risk entry pointsand verify whether your daily call is still in play or if your prior day assessment is proven wrong (which would disqualify this day as an execution day).Execute:Once entry criteria are verified (price patterns, indicator readings, price levels, and so forth), your job is to evaluate if the math fits the trade.First, mark your stop based on a support resistance level. Secondly, identify the next reasonable resistance zone for your trade, and if the distance towards your stop is smaller in size of the distance towards your first target (r/r ratio=1:1.5, see our Quad exit strategy ), you’re in business. Identify your following two targets as well. If the trade fits preset criteria, you are obligated to execute the trade.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The plan:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 15th, 2021.Larger timeframe plays work much alike since your process sheet approach is principle-based and expandable to the larger picture. We looked for a wealth preservation vehicle and found in Silver what fits the bill due to overwhelming fundamental data.The monthly chart above shows a projection chart where we see prices heading. One can see how Silver prices were declining from 2011 highs till 2015. Then the Silver market traded sideways until March last year. From that point on, we quickly advanced in just five-month to US$30. We find evidence that prices should go higher from here.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, The scan:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 15th, 2021.The look at the weekly chart is confirming a possible play. The yellow trend-lines indicate direction. We are trading near the lows of this support channel and near the mean (red line). Silver extending to three standard deviations from a volatility model is within the norm. As such, our projection allows for a substantial expansion of price from here (see red vertical line). With four levels of support (green horizontal lines), we are confident that lower supply zones (two-volume transaction nodes at US$25.24 and US$24.36, the mean at US$23.39 and the round figure US$23) are holding up price. A third test of the US$30 resistance zone could break through that supply zone, promising higher price levels.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, The execution:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 15th, 2021.With an entry near US$25.50, the long-term investor could engage into the market with a stop set at US$22.87 and a financing target near US$29.83. (see our Quad exit strategy). This would provide for a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.64. The next target being US$47.46, allows for ample profits to let the runner take its course for much higher price levels (triple-digit) until we get substantial counter signals to exit the final part of the position.Plan, Scan, Execute:Scrutinize all parts of this three-step instruction setup. People have set goals like becoming a millionaire and lost half their profits on the day they hit the seven-figure number. A subconscious part set in that they would be not worthy of such a sum. We mean to say the devil is in the details. Clearly, we are not trying to simplify trading here and make it sound easy. We see many traders make mistakes since they do not have a detailed, clear instruction plan that they follow religiously. Such a process sheet reduced to its mere bone structure is essential.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 15th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Intraday Market Analysis – USDCAD Struggles To Bottom Out

Intraday Market Analysis – USDCAD Struggles To Bottom Out

John Benjamin John Benjamin 06.05.2021 07:16
USDCAD reaches a 3-year lowThe US dollar remains under pressure as downbeat ADP jobs data fails to impress the market. General sentiment remains bearish as the pair grinds down along the 30-day moving average.The price action is about to test the February 2018 low of 1.2250. The recent bounce to 1.2350 indicates that sellers may be taking some chips off the table.A briefly overbought RSI might have prevented bidders to get into the action. One may expect traders to buy the dip when the greenback reaches the said support level.EURGBP tests key supportThe euro weakened after PMIs in Germany and France came out below consensus. The pair has struggled to clear the major supply area around 0.8720 on the daily chart.The triple top has kept the price action in check, which suggests that profit-takings have prevailed for the lack of further commitment from the buy-side.0.8590 is key support as a bearish breakout could make the euro vulnerable to the downside.On the upside, 0.8688 is the immediate resistance from the latest sell-off.USOIL rises above major resistanceWTI crude price consolidates gains as US inventories slash another 8M barrels. By clearing the resistance at 66.30, a major level from the previous sell-off the price action has signaled a bullish continuation.March’s high at 67.90 would be a formality as the rally gains impetus. However, an overbought RSI shows signs of over-extension.There is limited downside risk if trend followers wait for a pullback to jump onboard. 65.00 would be the first support to look for.Further down, 62.90 is critical in keeping optimism intact.
Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-term

Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-term

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 13.05.2021 12:41
It’s been a massive rally over the last 15 months in the crypto sector since bitcoin bottom at US$3,800 on March 13th, 2020. reaching price at around US$65,000 bitcoin saw a price explosion of more than 1,600%! Now however the sector seems ripe for some form of a healthy pullback and a breather. Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-term!ReviewBitcoin year to date, Daily Chart as of May 10th, 2021. Source: TradingviewSince the beginning of the year, the price of Bitcoin has increased by almost 100%. Thus, the outperformance of Bitcoin compared to almost all other asset classes continued mercilessly. It seems as if bitcoin, or rather the crypto sector, wants to suck up everything like a black hole.Bitcoin´s waning momentum is a warning signalHowever, the Bitcoin markets have also been witnessing an increasingly waning momentum since late February. In particular, the pace of the rise had slowed down more and more since prices pushed above US$60,000 in March for the first time. Although another new all-time high was reached on April 14th at around US$65,000, the bulls are showing more and more signs of fatigue after the spectacular rally. Interestingly enough, this last new all-time high coincided exactly with the stock market debut of Coinbase.Only a few days later, a significant price slide down to just under US$50,000 happened, which was caused by a huge wave of liquidations. According to data provider Bybt, traders lost a total of more than US$10.1 billion that Sunday through liquidations forced by crypto exchanges. More than 90% of the funds liquidated that day came from bullish bets on Bitcoin or other digital currencies. In this regard, the world’s largest crypto exchange Binance was at the center of the earthquake with liquidation worth nearly US$5 billion. As the price of bitcoin fell, many of these bets were automatically liquidated, putting further pressure on the price and leading to a vicious cycle of further liquidations. Many (especially inexperienced) crypto traders were wiped out without warning.Year to date gains sorted by market-cap. Source Messari, May 10th 2021.After a quick recovery back to US$56,000, bitcoin continued its correction and fell back to US$47,000 by April 25. Since then, it has managed a remarkable recovery, as the bitcoin bulls are trying hard to restart the uptrend. So far, this recovery has at least reached a high of US$59,600. Nevertheless, the price development of bitcoin remains rather tough until recently, while numerous altcoins and so called “shitcoins” experienced incredible price explosions in recent weeks.The exciting question now is whether the current recovery remains just a countermove within a larger correction or whether the turnaround has already been seen and Bitcoin is therefore on the way to new all-time highs?Technical Analysis For Bitcoin in US-DollarBitcoin, Weekly Chart as of May 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview.On the weekly chart, bitcoin has been stuck at the broad resistance zone between US$58,000 and US$65,000 for the past two and a half months. At the same time, the bulls continue trying to break out of the uptrend channel which is in place since 14 months. However, the recent pullback has so far only begun to clear the overbought situation, if at all. A somewhat larger pullback or simply the continuation of the consolidation would certainly do the market good. On the downside, the support zone between US$41,000 and US$45,000 remains the predestined support zone in case the bears should actually show some more penetration. If, on the other hand, price rise above approx. US$61,000, the chances for a direct continuation to new all-time highs increases quite a lot.Weekly Chart with a fresh sell signalOverall, the big picture remains bullish and higher bitcoin prices remain very likely in the medium to longer term. However, since reaching US$ 58,000 for the first time at the end of February, bitcoin has been increasingly weakening in recent weeks. Another healthy pullback towards the support zone of US$41,000 to US$45,000 USD could recharge the bull´s batteries. With fresh powers a breakout to new all-time highs in the summer is likely. Obviously, a good buying opportunity cannot be derived from the weekly chart at the moment. Rather, the stochastic sell signal calls for patience and caution.Bitcoin, Daily Chart as of May 13th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, bitcoin slipped out of a bearish wedge on April 14th and has been attempting a countermovement since the low at just under US$47,000. However, this recovery is somewhat tenacious and currently hangs on the upper edge of the uptrend channel. Given the overbought stochastic and the relatively large distance to the exponential 200-day moving average (US$41,694), another pullback has an increased probability. The liquidation wave on April 18th clearly showed how quickly the whole thing can slide, given the exuberant speculation with derivatives and leverage.Of course, the bulls (and thus rising prices) have always a clear advantage in a bull market. Also, in view of the huge monetary expansions, speculation on the short side is not recommended. One is better advised with regular partial profit-taking (without selling one’s core long positions completely) as well as a solid liquidity reserve, with which one can take advantage of the opportunities that arise in the event of more significant pullbacks. The blind “buy & hold” or “hodl” strategy has also proven its strengths and can rightfully be maintained given the bullish medium to longer-term outlook.Daily Chart now on a sell signalSummarizing the daily chart, bitcoin is so far “only” in a countermovement within the pullback that began on April 14th. Only with a breakout above approx. US$61,000 the bulls would clearly be gaining the upper hand again. In this case, a rally towards approx. US$69,000 USD becomes very possible. On the downside, however, bitcoin prices below US$53,000 would signal that the bears have successfully fended off the breakout above the upper edge of the uptrend channel in the short term. The next step would then be a continuation of the correction and thus lower prices in the direction of the support zone around US$44,000 as well as the rising exponential 200-day moving average.Sentiment Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-termBitcoin Optix as of May 9th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe rather short-term “Bitcoin Optix” currently reports a balanced sentiment. What is striking is the fact that the last sentiment highs since February have always been weaker. I.e. the sentiment momentum is falling. At the same time, the temporary panic on April 25th brought an exaggeration to the downside (panic low = green circle), with which the ongoing recovery can be explained.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of May 12th, 2021. Source: Crypto Fear & Greed Index The much more complex and rather long-term “Crypto Fear & Greed Index” currently indicates a slightly exaggerated optimism or “increased greed”.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of May 12th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn the very long-term comparison, sentiment is somewhat overly optimistic.Overall, quantitative sentiment analysis is increasingly sending warning signals. In particular, the decreasing momentum of the sentiment peaks with simultaneously exploding altcoin prices must be taken seriously. Therefore, a contrarian entry opportunity is definitely not present in the crypto space. Instead, one is well advised to wait patiently for the next wave of panic or liquidation.Seasonality Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-termBitcoin seasonality. Source: SeasonaxStatistically, the sideways spring phase for bitcoin ends at the beginning of May. This has often been followed by a sharp rally into June. However, this year bitcoin only reached an important high on April 14th and has been consolidating since then. Hence, the seasonal pattern doesn’t really match up with this year’s price action so far.In conclusion, the seasonality is basically changing from neutral to green these days. However, the course of the year has not been in line with the seasonal pattern. A continuation of the consolidation therefore seems more likely.Sound Money: Bitcoin vs. GoldBitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of May 10th, 2021. Source: TradingviewAt prices of US$58,075 for one bitcoin and US$1,835 for one troy ounce of gold, the bitcoin/gold-ratio is currently trading at around 31.7. This means that you currently have to pay almost 32 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. Put the other way around, one troy ounce of gold currently costs about 0.03 bitcoin. Thus, bitcoin has been running sideways against gold at a high level for a good month and a half.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline!Overall, you want to own gold as well as bitcoin, since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro Outlook and Crack-Up-BoomFED Balance Sheet. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 7th 2021.The U.S. Federal Reserve’s total assets continued to rise in recent weeks, reaching a new all-time high of USD 7,810 billion. The biggest increase was in holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, which rose by USD 25.66 billion to a total of USD 5,040 billion.ECB Balance Sheet. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 4th 2021.The ECB balance sheet also reached a new all-time high of EUR 7,568 billion. Driven by ultra-lax monetary policy (quantitative easing), total assets rose by a further EUR 9.7 billion. The ECB balance sheet is now equivalent to 76.2% of euro area GDP.Bloomberg Commodity Index. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 5th 2021.Due to these massive monetary expansions, the consequences of this irresponsible central bank policy are now slowly but surely becoming more and more apparent. For example, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has more than doubled since March 2020 and most recently rose to its highest level since 2011. Numerous commodities are reaching new highs, fueling inflation fears. The loss of confidence in fiat currencies typical of the crack-up boom is taking hold. This mass psychological phenomenon is gradually building up and may already be unstoppable. The accelerating crack-up boom is the ideal environment for precious metals, commodities and cryptocurrencies.Mentions of Inflation. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 5th 2021.Even Bank of America (BofA) recently acknowledged in a commentary that “inflation is here.” In doing so, they referenced the exploded number of mentions of “inflation.”Conclusion: Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-termEthereum new all-time highs © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 10, 2021.One of the main beneficiaries of the increasing flight out of the fiat systems in recent months has been cryptocurrencies. First and foremost, it was bitcoin which led the way up for the entire sector. Now, the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum, has risen to a new all-time high well above $4,300. Ethereum dominance reached a new record of 19%. Since the beginning of the year, Ethereum has thus gained nearly 500%.Bitcoin Dominance © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 10, 2021.The market capitalization of the entire crypto sector did reach more than US$2.5 trillion. Mainly due to the price explosion in Ethereum and Altcoins during recent weeks, Bitcoin dominance had been fading down to below 44%.Ethereum Market Capitalization © Messari via Twitter @RyanWatkins_, May 10, 2021.With a Bitcoin dominance of below 40%, however, the air has always been very thin for altcoins in the past, and sharp pullbacks followed in 2017 and 2018. The speculative madness became particularly dramatic in the case of the fun and meme coin Dogecoin. This essentially worthless coin has been rising from US$0.005 to US$0.672 in just a few months, making it worth almost as much as the Daimler Group. Once again, the markets are thus providing an example of the extent to which the vast quantities of fiat currencies created out of thin air are distorting everything and fueling wild speculation.Be careful, be patient!Overall, it is imperative to advise caution in the current environment. While a long-term top in bitcoin is not yet in sight, a significant correction or sharp pullback should not come as a surprise and would be good for the overheated sector. The “worst case” envisages a pullback in the direction of around US$44,000. In this area, bitcoin would already be a buying opportunity again. In this scenario, the altcoins would temporarily but very likely take a severe beating. Subsequently, bitcoin could take the lead again and march on towards US$100,000 once this pullback is done. Alternatively, the tenacious sideways consolidation continues until bitcoin prices above US$61,000 confirm the continuation of the rally to new all-time highs.Analysis sponsored and initially published on May 10th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on May 13th, 2021.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Florian Grummes|May 13th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, bitcoin crashing, Bitcoin dominance, Bitcoin Sentiment, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, cryptocurrency, Dogecoin, Ethereum, Ethereum correction, Gold, technical analysis|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running is own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.Florian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.eu
USDX: A Crocodile Just About To Strike

USDX: A Crocodile Just About To Strike

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 19.07.2021 15:06
Taking a sip from a crocodile pond is risky, but some animals try anyway. And die. Beware, as trying to profit from the PM’s pool now could end alike.Just as ignoring a crocodile hiding in plain sight, ignoring the USD Index is a dangerous activity. And while investors continue to drink from the pond, the greenback’s nose is literally perched at the water’s surface. The USD Index is currently consolidating below the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern, so its wide eyes are also glaringly visible. And with a strike liable to happen at any moment, a leap above 93 could make the USD Index devour gold, silver and mining stocks.To explain, the USD Index often soars during the summer months (major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year), and while the greenback’s back-and-forth movement has uplifted the PMs, once the USDX resumes its likely uptrend, the former’s optimism could dissipate rather quickly. As a result, if the ambush ushers the USD Index above 93, the next stop is likely 98.Please see below:Furthermore, the seasonal thesis remains intact: I mentioned above that the USD Index often records material upswings during the middle of the year. And with the hunter’s disguise nearly always catching overzealous investors by surprise, will the next trap be any different?In fact, the USD index seems to be breaking above the neck level of its inverse head-and-shoulders formation at the moment of writing these words.The week started with a breakout, so there’s plenty of time for the markets to react before the next bigger break takes place (the next weekend). In other words, this week could be quite volatile and nothing like the previous weeks’ boredom. Gold, silver, and mining stocks might slide quite profoundly before we hear Friday’s closing bell.If you analyze the chart below, you can see that summertime surges have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and double bottoms often signal the end of major declines or ignite significant rallies. For example, in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018, a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights. In addition, back in 2008, U.S. equities’ plight added even more wind to the USD Index’s sails. And if the general stock market suffers another profound decline (along with gold miners and silver), a sharp re-rating of the USDX is likely in the cards.Please see below (quick reminder: you can click on the chart to enlarge it):On top of that, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, a profound uptrend is already in place.Please see below:As another important variable, the Euro Index’s recent symmetrical decline mirrors the drawdown that we witnessed in mid-2020. And if the Euro Index breaks below the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern, the steep decline could usher the index back to the June 2020 lows or even lower. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index.In addition, when the Euro Index reached the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern in early April 2021, late September 2020, and late October 2020, a fierce rally ensued. However, this time around, the corrective upswing has been extremely weak. As a result, with lower highs and lower lows plaguing the Euro Index in recent weeks, it’s likely only a matter of time before the neckline breaks.Please see below:Even more relevant, the completion of the masterpiece could have a profound impact on gold, silver and mining stocks. To explain, gold continues to underperform the euro. If you analyze the bottom half of the chart above, you can see that material upswings in the Euro Index have resulted in diminishing marginal returns for the yellow metal. Thus, the relative weakness is an ominous sign. That’s another point for the bearish price prediction for gold.The bottom line?Once the momentum unfolds, ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop, ~98 is likely the next stop, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, and the relative performance is what really matters.In conclusion, while gold, silver and mining stocks are increasingly treading water, the USD Index’s jaws are expanding. And with the greenback poised to take a bite out of the trio’s performance over the medium term, the precious metals could be in for a long and arduous recovery. However, after the drama unfolds, gold, silver and mining stocks are poised to continue their long-term secular uptrends.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?

Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.07.2021 15:07
After the sharp drop in the first half of June and a tenacious sideways bottoming out, the gold price recovered to US$1,834 and thus reached its 200-day moving average (US$ 1,827) again. Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?ReviewSince gold prices reached a new all-time high at US$2,075 on August 7th, 2020, the entire precious metal sector has been in a multi-month correction. After eight months within this correction, gold fell back to an important double low at around US$1,676 in mid and late March. From there, prices recovered strongly in April and May. This wave up ended at US$1,916 (+14.3% in eight and a half weeks). Subsequently, gold prices came under strong selling pressure once again. A quick and steep sell off took prices down by US$142 within just one week between June 11th and 18th. But it was not until June 29th that the gold market finally found its turning point at US$1,750. From here, an initially tenacious but step by step more dynamic recovery towards US$1,834 began. Over the last few days, gold slipped back below US$1,800 only to recover quickly back to US$1,815.While central bankers, politicians and the media have been talking down the increasing fears of inflation (US consumer price index +5.4% in June), gold was only able to recover slowly from the severe pullback in June. Nevertheless, gold current trades about US$65 higher than at its low point a three weeks ago. Is this the end of the typical early summer correction in the precious metals sector or is there still some more downside to come?Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarWeekly Chart – The series of higher lows remains intactGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of July 20th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the weekly chart, gold has been moving higher within a clearly defined uptrend channel (dark green) since autumn 2018. The lower edge of this trend channel was tested in April 2019. The sharp pullback in June, on the other hand, has so far ended at US$1,750 and thus at the connecting line (light green) of the last three higher lows. At the same time, the upper edge of the former downward trend channel (red) was successfully tested for support.If the correction is now over, gold could already be on the way to its upper Bollinger Band (US$1,911). In any case, the stochastic has turned upwards again and thus provides a new buy signal.Overall, the weekly chart is not (yet) convincing, but the bullish tendencies prevail. To confirm the uptrend, a higher high is needed in the next step, which would require gold prices above US$1,916. Until then, however, the bulls still have a lot of work to do. If, on the other hand, the low at US$1,750 is being taken out, another retracement towards the lower edge of the uptrend channel at around US$1,670 to US$1,700 is very likely.Daily Chart – Around the falling 200-day moving averageGold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of July 20th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, gold had good support at the cross of a downtrend and an uptrend line. Starting from that zone and the low at US$1,750, gold did already recover slightly above the still falling 200-day moving average (US$1,824). However, as the stochastic oscillator has already moved into the overbought zone and created a new sell signal. As well, the upper Bollinger Band (US$ 1,831) is blocking the bulls. Hence, a consolidation around the 200-day moving average would be a highly conceivable scenario.Bulls need to gain confidence againOnce the important 200-day moving average will have been sustainably recaptured and the bulls will have gained some confidence, the rally could continue and transform into the typical summer rally. The next target would then be the downward trend line from the all-time high via the high from the end of May. This line is currently sitting at around US$1,892 and is falling a few dollars a day.In summary, the daily chart is overbought in the short term. This means that the risk/reward ratio is not good right now. Ideally, however, the bulls will succeed in consolidating around the200-day moving average for at least a few days or even several weeks. This would provide the launching pad for the summer rally and higher gold prices. If, on the other hand, prices fall below US$1,790 again, the correction will likely continue. However, only below US$1,765 the promising setup for a midsummer rally would be destroyed.Commitments of Traders for Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?Commitments of Traders for Gold as of July 19th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe commercial traders used the sharp pullback in June to cover their short positions again. This has eased the setup in the futures market somewhat. Nevertheless, with 221.028 contracts sold short as of last Tuesday, commercial traders still hold a relatively high short position on the gold future in a longer-term comparison.In summary, the current Commitment of Trades report (CoT) still does not provide a contrarian buy signal but calls for caution and patience.Sentiment for Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?Sentiment Optix for Gold as of July 19th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe Sentiment in the gold market fell to a low at the end of June and has since recovered quite a bit. However, this low did not represent an extreme, but rather showed only a slight increase in pessimism. The last “real” panic low in the gold market, on the other hand, was last seen in August 2018 with the sell-off at that time down to US$1,160. No one can predict when and if such a good contrarian opportunity will arise again in this bull market. It remains to be said that the correction in June did not lead to any extreme pessimism, and that confidence has already prevailed again.The sentiment thus tends to reinforce the doubts about a sustainable and imminent wave up.Seasonality for Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?Seasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of July 14th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderA strong green light, on the other hand, currently comes from the seasonal component! Statistically, a major bull move in the gold market begins precisely in these days. This wave up usually lasts until the end of September or even mid-October. Although the price action of the last three weeks left the impression of an early summer doldrums, it is precisely this price behavior that fits the seasonal pattern.Hence, as soon as the gold market will start to move, the chances of a strong movement up are very favorable from a seasonal perspective.Sound Money: Bitcoin/Gold-RatioBitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of July 20th, 2021. Source: TradingviewWith prices of around US$29,500 for one bitcoin and US$1,815 for one troy ounce of gold, the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio is currently around 16.25. This means that you currently must pay a bit more than 16 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. Conversely, one ounce of gold currently costs 0.0615 bitcoin. Since the sharp sell off at the beginning of May, the bitcoin/gold ratio has mainly been running sideways. Another price slide does not seem out of the question given the continued weakness of bitcoin. However, the long-term uptrend in favor of bitcoin remains intact, while the stochastic on the ratio chart is heavily oversold.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline!Overall, you want to own gold as well as bitcoin since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro update and Crack-up-Boom:FED Balance sheet as of July 10th, 2021. Source Holger ZschaepitzIn terms of monetary expansion, the global uptrend continued in recent weeks, of course. The balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve grew by US$19 billion to a total of US$ 8,097.8 billion and thus once again reached a new all-time high. The Fed’s balance sheet total is now equivalent to 37% of the GDP in the USA.ECB Balance sheet as of July 13th, 2021. Source Holger ZschaepitzThe ECB’s balance sheet rose by another EUR 18.7 billion last week to a new all-time high of EUR 7,926.6 billion. With this, the ECB also created new billions out of thin air, as it does every week, completely irrespective of which of its various goals (symmetric or average price target, pandemic emergency purchase program PEPP or quantitative easing) is currently supposedly being pursued.ECB Balance sheet in percentage of Eurozone GDP as of July 10th, 2021. Source Holger ZschaepitzThe ECB’s balance sheet total is now equivalent to over 75% of the GDP of the entire Eurozone, reflecting the ECB’s huge increase in power. The central bank has long since been unable to concentrate on its actual goal of price stability. Instead, it has taken on too many other tasks in the ECB Tower in Frankfurt. And these fiscal and monetary interventions are becoming increasingly vertical.Central banks are destroying the free marketDigital Euro as of Jul 14, 2021. Source: European Central BankHowever, printing money has never worked in the history of mankind. It will not work this time either. The question remains how long the music will continue to play for the dance on the volcano, and whether it will still be possible in time to finally and completely eliminate the free markets with a new digital EUR currency.ECB = Reichsbank 2.0 as of July 8th, 2021. ©Stefan SchmidtIn the end, Madame Lagarde, just like Rudolf Havenstein, is a prisoner of the absurd financial policy that has maneuvered itself into a dead end thanks to an unbacked paper money system. Havenstein, by the way, was also an inflationist and, until his death in November 1923, interpreted the Weimar hyperinflation as a product of the unfavorable balance of payments and did not get the idea that it had come about through the unbridled use of the printing press.Conclusion: Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?After the sharp pullback in June and an initially tenacious bottoming phase, gold recovered towards US$ 1,834 in the last two weeks. Even though this rally took quite some effort, gold makes the impression that there is more upside to come. The summer rally has probably already started. After a temporary consolidation around the 200-day moving average, August should bring significantly higher gold prices (US$1,865 and US$1,910). Short-term pullbacks towards and below US$1,800 are therefore buying opportunities.However, the performance of the mining stocks does not quite fit into this optimistic picture. The GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average. And heavyweights such as Newmont Corporation and Barrick Gold have not been able to get back on their feet at all since the sell-off in mid-June. Despite this weakness in gold mining stocks, the call for a summer rally in the sector will have to be canceled if gold moves back below US$1,765.Analysis initially written on July 15th and published on July 19th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on July 20th, 2021.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Florian Grummes|July 20th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, bitcoin/gold-ratio, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold correction, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold mining, Gold neutral, Silver, The bottom is in|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is also chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks.
USDX: More Sideways Trading Ahead?

USDX: More Sideways Trading Ahead?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.07.2021 14:54
The USDX reportedly invalidated its bullish H&S pattern yesterday, but did it actually do so? The line based on daily closing prices says otherwise.Yesterday’s (Jul. 27) supposedly big news was the breakdown below the neck level of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the USD Index. Invalidations of breakouts are bearish, and what’s bearish for the USDX is usually bullish for gold, silver, and mining stocks. So, what happened? And what didn’t happen?What happened was that the USD Index moved a bit below the declining neckline based on the previous intraday highs.What didn’t happen was the move below the declining neckline based on the previous highs in terms of daily closing prices (dashed line).So, was the breakout really invalidated? Not necessarily, especially that the USDX is moving back up in today’s pre-market trading (at least at the moment of writing these words).Moreover, while the USD Index moved lower yesterday, gold refused to rally.To be precise, it did move higher, but only by $0.60, so it generally ignored the USD’s movement.Consequently, yesterday’s session might have seemed to be a game-changer at first sight, but it seems much more likely that it wasn’t one. In my view, yesterday’s price movement was the continuation of the back-and-forth trading that’s analogous to what we saw in the first half of June. Gold was moving back and forth in a boring manner then too. The boredom was over quite quickly and a big short-term slide followed – I think the same is likely to happen shortly.Gold Miners’ AidMining stocks’ performance also supports this scenario.If it was the beginning of another sizable move higher in the PMs and miners, the latter would be likely to show strength before gold. And that’s not taking place.Senior gold miners were practically flat yesterday, just as gold was – that is, only slightly higher. On the other hand, junior gold miners ended the session slightly lower – very close to their previous 2021 lows.Junior miners (the GDXJ ETF) haven’t invalidated the breakdown below the neck level of the bearish head and shoulders formation. Consequently, the very bearish implications of the breakdown remain intact.All in all, the precious metals sector seems poised for another move lower, quite likely to the previous yearly lows in the case of gold and well below the previous 2021 lows in the case of the mining stocks. Yesterday’s decline in the USD index doesn’t change that. To clarify, the above-mentioned targets will most likely be just interim stops within an even bigger decline that will get us to the ultimate buying opportunity for the PMs and miners later this year.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Perfect Time to Invest In FAANG

Perfect Time to Invest In FAANG

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 29.07.2021 09:44
What happened?Apple, Microsoft, and Google reported their financial results for the second quarter. Despite strong earnings, the companies closed in red yesterday. Why? The global market sentiment worsened due to China’s tech crackdown and the Covid-19 resurgence. Besides, investors expected a tremendous profit from these companies and priced in a good outcome before the releases. Thus, investors who bought the stocks before the earnings reports started selling them afterward. In this case, traders say the so-called “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario happened. What to do now?The stocks from the FAANG group will keep rising in the long term with a high probability. Therefore, investors are eagerly waiting for these stocks to drop to buy them at a lower price. So, now it’s a good time for traders to enter! Perhaps you may wait longer for the prices to dip a bit lower to enter at more attractive levels. Let’s discuss the earnings results of Apple, Microsoft, and Google and also find the levels at which traders should consider buying these stocks.Apple Apple has released encouraging results. Just look: iPhone sales rose 49.8% in the second quarter of 2021 in comparison with the second quarter of 2020, while Apple's services revenue increased 32.9%, marking the fastest pace of growth since 2018. Wow, so good! Besides, both earnings results and revenue exceeded analysts’ expectations. These numbers tell investors that the Apple company is well-positioned and it will grow further. From a technical point of view, Apple is just slightly below the all-time highs. It would be great if it falls to the low of July 19 at $142.00, where investors can enter the market. However, if it reverses up from the current levels, consider buying now. According to UBS, the stocks of Apple will hit $166, while JPMorgan set its price target at $175. GoogleGoogle’s earnings results came out better as well. Google's core advertising business showed a 69% increase in revenue in comparison to the year prior. Moreover, Google’s cloud services and AI sector added tailwinds to the company. On the daily chart, the stock price has reversed down to the $2700 support level. It may reverse up from it today or it may drop to the low of July 19 at $2585, where a great opportunity to enter the market will appear. MicrosoftMicrosoft demonstrated astonishing earnings and revenue results for the second quarter as well. Its cloud segment rose more than analysts expected. The stock price of Microsoft may fall to the 200-day moving average of $280 or even deeper to the low of July 19 at $275. These levels will be good for entering. Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
Behavior of Inflation and Bond Yields Seems… Contradictory

Behavior of Inflation and Bond Yields Seems… Contradictory

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.07.2021 19:15
The bond yields dropped despite surging inflation. It’s not a usual thing on the market, so we have to ask: what does it mean for gold?The markets hide many mysteries. One of them is the recent slide in the long-term bond yields. As the chart below shows, both the nominal interest rates and the real interest rates have been in a downside trend since March (with a short-lived rebound in June). Indeed, the 10-year Treasury yield reached almost 1.75% at the end of March, and by July it decreased to about 1.25%, while the inflation-adjusted yield dropped from -0.63% to about -1%.What’s intriguing, this drop happened despite the surge in inflation. As you can see in the chart below, the seasonally adjusted annual CPI inflation rate surged to 5.3% in June, the highest level since the Great Recession. Even as inflation soared, the bond yields declined.Why is that? Are bond traders blind? Don’t they see that the real interest rates are deeply negative? Indeed, the TIPS yields are the lowest in the history of the series (which began in 2003), while the difference between the nominal 10-year Treasury yields and the CPI annual rates is the lowest since June 1980, as the chart below shows.The pundits say that the decline in the bond yields suggests that inflation will only be temporary and there is nothing to worry about. This is what the central bankers repeat and what investors believe. However, history teaches us that the bond market often lags behind inflation, allowing the real interest rates to plunge. This happened, for example, in the 1970s (see the chart above), when the bond market was clearly surprised by stagflation.Another issue here is that the central banks heavily influence the bond markets through manipulation of interest rates and quantitative easing, preventing them from properly reacting to inflation. Actually, some analysts say that the bond market is the most manipulated market in the world. So, it doesn’t have to predict inflation properly.Implications for GoldWhat does the divergence between the bond yields and inflation imply for gold? Well, as an economist, I’m tempted to say “it depends”. You see, if inflation is really temporary, it will start declining later this year, making the real interest rates rise. In that case, gold would suffer (unless inflation decreases together with the pace of economic growth).It might also be the case that the divergence will narrow as a result of the increase in the nominal interest rates. Such a move would boost the real interest rates and create downward pressure on gold.However, if inflation turns out to be more persistent than expected, investors will fear an inflation tail risk, and they will be more eager to buy gold as an inflation hedge. As I’ve explained, the decline in the bond yields doesn’t have to mean low inflation expectations. It may also indicate expectations of slower economic growth. Combined with high inflation, it would imply stagflation, a pleasant environment for gold.Another bullish argument for gold is the observation that the price of gold has recently lagged the drop in the real interest rates, as the chart below shows. So, it might be somewhat undervalued from the fundamental point of view.However, given the upcoming Fed’s tightening cycle and the record low level of real interest rates, I would bet that the above-mentioned rates will increase later this year, which should send gold prices lower. But if they rise too much, it could make the markets worry about excessive indebtedness and release some recessionary forces. Then, the current reflation could transform into stagflation, making gold shine. So, gold could decline before it rallies again.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Gold: What's Going To Happen After the Dust Settles?

Gold: What's Going To Happen After the Dust Settles?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.08.2021 15:59
When the market wants to move down and gets short-term bullish signals, it often ignores them or reacts weakly – and that’s exactly what gold is doing.This week’s back-and-forth movement in gold, silver, and mining stocks is neither particularly exciting nor interesting. There is, however, some fundamental news that I would like to cover today.Nonetheless, let’s start with the charts. The single notable technical thing is today’s pre-market performance of gold vs. the performance of silver.Here’s what gold did so far today:It moved slightly higher in a relatively boring manner; it moved a bit higher after having moved a bit lower. Nothing to write home about.And here’s what silver did so far today:Silver moved higher as well, and while this move was relatively insignificant in nominal and percentage terms (+0.78%), it was much bigger than what we saw in gold (+0.22%); the difference is crystal-clear when we compare today’s pre-market moves to the most recent short-term highs in both precious metals.Silver moved to its recent short-term high while gold is not even close to being halfway back up. This means that on a very short-term basis, silver is clearly outperforming gold.This is also what tends to happen shortly before significant declines across the precious metals sector.Now, the sizes of both moves were not that significant, so this performance could also be more or less random, and, if that was the case, the outperformance would be just accidental. Consequently, it’s not a game-changing signal in terms of its importance. It is something that’s on top of multiple other indications that we have, and the most important ones are not of a short-term nature at all. The long-term self-similarities in gold and the HUI Index (gold stocks) are the true key to understanding where the precious metals sector is likely to head next, and you already know about those, as I described them thoroughly on Monday.Should We Fear Countertrends?Having said that, let’s move to the less technical details and more fundamental ones. Before I proceed, though, I would like to reply to a question that I just received that will serve as a good segue from the world of the technicals into the world of the fundamentals. Here’s the question (the bold formatting was added by me):You have made a compelling case and a very thorough one for the decline in the precious metals market, and yet the US treasury Bond yields decline and the USD-DXY continue to decline. The analysis needs to include the countertrend that exists and how this countertrend occurred. You refer to this in one-sentence statements which are not very clear. There have been many short-term moves in Gold that have been fairly substantial, and the current trend in the USD and US 10yrT yield is significant. Explaining how the countertrends could and would move within your analysis and projections would help everyone... The daily analyses are much appreciated and I would like to have better understanding of the countertrend moves within your analyses, as well as the US Fed and the ECB influence.And here’s my reply.As far as the USD Index (USD-DXY) is concerned, then I wouldn’t say that it “continues to decline”, as it’s been on the rise since the beginning of this year. But let’s say that we’re talking about the last 2 weeks or so. In this case, the USD Index is indeed declining. The highest recent closing price was 92.98 (July 20). Yesterday’s closing price for the USD Index was 92.09, so the USDX is down by 0.89 – almost a full index point.What did the 10-year yield do between those dates? The $TNX (10-year US Treasury Index) declined from 12.09 to 11.76. But if we took July 13 as the starting date (the recent short-term high in the $TNX), we would see that it moved from 14.15 to 11.76 – a substantial decline.Ok, what did gold do during these times? Almost nothing. Gold moved from $1,811.40 (July 20) to $1,814.10 (August 3). So, while the USD Index declined by almost a full index point, gold moved higher by a mere $2.70.And in the case of the TNX, between July 13 and yesterday, gold moved from $1,809.90 to $1,814.10 (it moved higher by a mere $4.20).Based on this comparison, the reply is already quite evident. What if these trends continue? If these trends continue, gold is likely to do… Nothing.Based on how gold tends to perform (based on the 2008 and 2011-2013 analogies), it’s time for gold to fall, and to fall hard. If it was just gold that was performing just as it did in all those years, it might not have been as critical. But gold stocks (the HUI Index) are doing the same thing! They are also repeating what happened in all those years. And based on these analogies, the markets are about to slide.Now, what does the market do if it wants to move in a given direction (here: down) and it gets bullish signals from other markets or the from news? It ignores them. This could take the form of reacting in a weak manner and then, after the dust settles, moving slowly back down. That’s exactly what gold has been doing.The bullish indications from the USD Index (reminder: they are of a very short-term nature only; the USDX tends to rally after bottoming in the middle of the year) and bond yields are simply delaying the PMs’ slide. At the same time, gold, silver, and mining stocks act like a spring that’s being coiled with bigger force. It doesn’t move, but when something finally changes (yields and the USDX move higher), something big (here: decline in the PMs) is likely to happen.Having said that, let’s move to the more fundamental part of the analysis. I will also discuss the situation in bond yields more thoroughly in the upcoming analyses.Work in ProgressWith the USD Index patiently waiting for the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Aug. 6, the greenback has recorded a muted start to the month. However, if payrolls outperform and investors accelerate the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) taper timeline, a U.S. dollar surge could happen sooner rather than later.In the interim, though, the U.S. labor market is trending in the right direction. Case in point: while Gusto – a software company that provides cloud-based payroll, benefits and human resource management solutions for U.S. businesses – largely downplayed the end of enhanced unemployment benefits in many states, an excerpt from the Jul. 27 report read:“Looking at employment trends by employee age, we observe that around the time of governors’ announcements in the first week of May, hiring rates for workers 25 and older rose in states ending these benefits early, which indicates that UI did play a role in the labor supply decisions of a group of adult workers.”Please see below:To explain, the black line above tracks the cumulative headcount of adults 25 and older in the states where enhanced unemployment benefits ended early, while the brown line above tracks the same cohort in states where enhanced unemployment benefits are still in play. If you analyze the acceleration of the black line, it’s clear that fiscal benefits have impacted U.S. citizens’ desire to find employment.Also noteworthy, Indeed revealed on Aug. 3 that U.S. job openings fell by “two points from last week” and that “job postings increased in May, June, and July at a slower pace than in March and April.”Please see below:At first glance, the results may seem disappointing. However, it’s important to remember that if job postings are declining, businesses have likely filled the vacancies. Think about it: when a person is hired, the job posting is no longer necessary. And with the latter declining at a time when enhanced unemployment benefits have ended for roughly 30% of Americans, the ‘coincidence’ signals that a restocking of the U.S. labor force is already underway.Allocation to the Dollar RisesCircling back to the USD Index, as indicated in the CoT reports, the non-commercial (speculative) futures traders, asset managers and leveraged funds’ allocation to the U.S. dollar are now at 2021 highs.Please see below:To explain, the dark blue, gray and light blue lines above represent net-long positions of non-commercial (speculative) futures traders, asset managers and leveraged funds. When the lines are falling, it means that the trio have reduced their net-long positions and are expecting a weaker U.S. dollar. Conversely, when the lines are rising, it means that the trio have increased their net-long positions and are expecting a stronger U.S. dollar. And if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the trio have upped their bullish bets in recent weeks (with leveraged funds moving notably higher last week).On the flip side, euro sentiment is moving in the opposite direction. And because the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, the performance of the currency pair is extremely important.Please see below:To explain, the dark blue, gray and light blue lines above track the trio’s allocation to the euro. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that speculative euro bulls are throwing in the towel.Furthermore, the relative fundamentals also favor the greenback. With U.S. GDP growth poised to outperform the Eurozone, growth differentials still signal a stronger U.S. dollar. For example, Stellantis NV – a European automaker that was created following the merger of PSA Group and Fiat Chrysler in 2021 – increased its full-year 2021 earnings guidance on Aug. 3. The main reason? Higher output in North America.Please see below:Source: Stellantis NVHouseholds in the US Are… Wealthier?On top of that, with U.S. fiscal benefits plumping consumers’ balance sheets, household savings in the U.S. far outweighs the Eurozone. For context, the construction of the European Union makes it difficult for the bloc to find common ground on fiscal policy. And while the lack of spending decreases the supply of euros relative to U.S. dollars, the growth outperformance should result in capital flowing into the U.S. and investors buying the U.S. dollar.Please see below:To explain, the stacked bars above depict various regions’ household savings over the last six quarters. If you analyze the column on the right side of the chart labeled “Q2,” you can see that the U.S. (the dark blue section) has much more household savings built up than the Eurozone (the light blue section). As a result, when U.S. citizens’ willingness to spend matches their ability to spend, the prospective economic outperformance is bullish for the greenback.To that point, while the U.S. is about to recoup its pre-pandemic GDP growth trajectory, the Eurozone isn’t expected to reach the milestone until late 2022.Please see below:To explain, the chart on the left compares the Eurozone’s current growth trajectory (the blue line) with its pre-pandemic trend (the pink line). If you analyze the gap, you can see that the Eurozone is still a ways away from recapturing its past glory. Conversely, if you turn your attention to the chart on the right, you can see that the U.S. has already recouped its pre-pandemic GDP level (100) and the region is expected to exceed its pre-pandemic trend in the third or fourth quarter of 2021.Finally, with the momentum shifting across emerging markets, foreign portfolio flows have stalled once again.Please see below:To explain, the stacked bars above categorize non-resident portfolio flows into emerging markets, while the black line above tracks the consolidated total. If you analyze the sharp fall in early 2020 and the sharp rise in late 2020, the former coincided with a sharp rise in the USD Index, while the latter coincided with a sharp fall in the USD Index. More importantly, though, if you focus your attention on the right side of the chart, you can see that non-resident portfolio flows into emerging markets continue to lose momentum. And if the dynamic persists, it will likely add even more fuel to the USD Index’s fire.In conclusion, the precious metals’ performance was mixed on Aug. 3, as payrolls uncertainty has many assets stuck in consolidation mode. However, whether reality resurfaces on Aug. 6 or the PMs bask in what’s left of the summer sun, the bearish medium-term implications remain intact. With the U.S. labor market moving closer to the FED’s taper threshold, the PMs have become increasingly anxious. And after the U.S. 10-Year real yield hit another all-time low on Aug. 2, the metals’ inability to muster a relief rally is a sign of extreme weakness. The bottom line? While short-term bursts of strength are definitely possible and expected along the way, the PMs’ medium-term trend still remains down. And it seems that the current short-term corrective upswing in gold, silver, and mining stocks is over or about to be over.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
S&P 500 Slips at Close, Sector Strength Tells Defensive Story

S&P 500 Slips at Close, Sector Strength Tells Defensive Story

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 05.08.2021 00:13
As the S&P 500 chugs higher and higher, have you been monitoring the sector strength over the last month? Taking a deeper look into leading sectors paints a different picture.Broader markets have been quiet over the last few days and trading in narrow ranges. While the overall trend in the short term has been higher, albeit, with a sideways tone, one cannot help feeling that this market is a bit on the defensive side.Today, we saw the S&P 500 slip at the close, finishing the day lower by 0.46%, featuring some selling at the close.As we noted on Monday, the $VIX had been rising, even with the S&P 500 up fractionally. Although the $VIX settled down in yesterday’s session, we can certainly take away that protection was being bought during an otherwise quiet session on Monday.Sector StrengthLooking Back at the past 30 days, here is where the sector strength has been:Figure 1 - Leading Sectors July 6, 2021 - August 4, 2021, Source stockcharts.comHealth Care certainly makes sense with the vaccine administration and the overall macro news theme that has been featured over the last month surrounding the delta variant.However, coming in at number two, we see Utilities taking the spotlight, almost up as much as Health Care. Utilities tend to connote highly to a defensive or even overall bearish market stance. Let’s take a look at the XLU (Utilities Sector Fund):Figure 2 - XLU Utilities Select Sector Fund ETF February 15, 2021 - August 4, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comAs you most likely know, utility stocks are high dividend-paying (for the most part), defensive plays when more aggressive growth plays become out of favor. It is concerning for the broader markets when utilities catch such a bid that is in place right now.In our July 23rd publication, we covered the price divergence in the Dow Jones Transports. The Transports put in a high on May 10th, and they have been falling ever since. This price action is in sharp contrast to the broader market averages making fresh highs.We were ready when the IYT bounced and traded near the top of its recent downward channel.Figure 3 - IYT iShares Transportation Average ETF February 1, 2021 - August 4, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comThe setup in IYT was a nice one and the day after identification rewarded traders with a gap lower. Our initial short entry zone that was identified was between $257.00 and $259.99. Prices traded in this area on the same day and the next day IYT gapped down. Our current price target is $243.01. This level can change over time, so stay tuned for updates.Now, let’s examine the other markets that we are covering for Premium Subscribers.Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 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Fed: Singing the Inflation Blues

Fed: Singing the Inflation Blues

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.10.2021 16:49
With inflation surging and Powell praying for a “transitory” miracle, the troubles confronting the Fed are accelerating, not decelerating.“I got the blues, Got those inflation blues”-- B.B. KingTo explain, I wrote on Sep. 24:I’ve warned on several occasions that the only way for the Fed to control inflation is to increase the value of the U.S. dollar and decrease the value of commodities. However, with commodities’ fervor accelerating on Sep. 23 – a day when the USD Index declined – the price action should concern Chairman Jerome Powell. As a result, FOMC participants’ 2022 inflation forecast is likely wishful thinking and they may find that a faster liquidity drain (which is bullish for the U.S. dollar) is their only option to control the pricing pressures.To that point, with energy prices increasingly unhinged and WTI on pace for its seventh-straight week of weekly gains, the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) has been on fire recently. For context, the S&P GSCI contains 24 commodities from all sectors: six energy products, five industrial metals, eight agricultural products, three livestock products and two precious metals. However, energy accounts for roughly 54% of the index’s movement.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks the S&P GSCI’s current rally off of the bottom, while the red line above tracks the S&P GSCI’s rally off of the bottom in 2009-2010 (following the global financial crisis). If you analyze the middle of the chart, you can see that the S&P GSCI has completely run away from the 2009-2010 analogue. For context, at this point in 2009-2010, the S&P GSCI had rallied by 77% off of the bottom. However, as of the Oct. 5 close, the S&P GSCI has now rallied by 154% off of the April 2020 bottom.Furthermore, with higher energy and materials prices exacerbating the cost-push inflationary spiral, signs of stress remain abundant. For example, IHS Markit released its U.S. Manufacturing PMI on Oct. 1. And while the headline index declined from 61.1 in August to 60.7 in September, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said that “prices charged for those goods leaving the factory gate also surged higher again in September, rising at a rate exceeding anything seen in nearly 15 years of survey history.”Please see below:Source: IHS MarkitSinging a similar tune, the Institute for Supply Management (ISI) released its Services PMI on Oct. 5. For context, the U.S. service sector has suffered the brunt of the Delta variant’s wrath. And though pricing pressures aren’t as feverish as they are in the U.S. manufacturing sector, the report revealed that inflation increased at a “faster” pace and that “all 18 services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of September.”In addition, PepsiCo released its third-quarter earnings on Oct. 5. And after beating analysts’ estimates on both the top and bottom lines, the beverage giant raised its full-year guidance. However, while demand remains resilient, 11.6% year-over-year (YoY) consolidated net revenue growth coincided with a 3% decline in diluted earnings per share (EPS).Despite that though, CEO Ramon Laguarta told analysts during the company’s Q3 earnings call that “what we're seeing across the world is much lower elasticity on the pricing that we've seen historically,” and as a result, price hikes are scheduled to commence in the coming months. For context, ‘elasticity’ attempts to quantify the change in demand that results from a change in price. And with CFO Hugh Johnston expecting charge inflation to outpace cost inflation going forward, “lower elasticity” is materially problematic for the Fed.Please see below:Source: PepsiCo/The Motley FoolIf that wasn’t enough, BMO Harris Bank announced on Oct. 5 that it will increase its minimum hourly wage for all branch and call-center employees by a “20 Percent Minimum” to $18 an hour. For context, BMO Harris Bank has more than 500 branches and more than 12,000 employees in the U.S.Please see below:Source: BMO Harris BankMore importantly, though, with Powell’s inflationary conundrum helping swing the double-edged sword that’s been fundamentally slashing the PMs, the USD Index rallied by 0.20% on Oct. 5 and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened across the board.Please see below:Source: Investing.comAs it relates to the dollar story, the USD Index’s fundamental strength is underwritten by the ‘dollar smile.’ To explain, when the U.S. economy is trudging along, the U.S. dollar tends to underperform. However, when the U.S. economy craters and a safe-haven bid emerges, the U.S. dollar often outperforms. Conversely (and similarly), when the U.S. economy is booming and higher interest rates materialize, the U.S. dollar also outperforms.By the way, I’ve discussed the situation in the USD Index at length in today’s video.For context, I indicated on Sep. 22:The USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields can move in the same direction or forge different paths. However, while a stock market crash is likely the most bearish fundamental outcome that could confront the PMs, scenario #2 is next in line. When U.S. economic strength provides a fundamental thesis for both the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields to rise (along with real interest rates), the double-edged sword often leaves the PMs with deep lacerations.To that point, with a mix of both playing out in the present, Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea, signalled clients that the dollar smile remains alive and well:“The dollar should continue to be supported by expectations of an eventual series of Fed rate hikes and the value of the dollar as a safe haven against a potential equity correction…. The downward trend in EUR/USD is likely to return in the coming weeks and months, suggesting EUR/USD around the 1.10 handle and potentially below that before moving higher.”As for the yield story, Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Financial, told clients that “markets appear increasingly jittery as the realization of a higher sustained level of inflation eventually resulting in a higher level of rates appears to be finally sinking in.... Against the backdrop of elevated inflation and rapidly rising energy costs, many market participants are skeptical the FOMC will be able to maintain these low rates for another year, let alone two.”The bottom line? With inflation running away from the Fed, suppressing commodity prices (by strengthening the U.S. dollar and/or raising interest rates) is the only way to calm the inflationary pressures. If not, surging commodity prices will likely further suppress consumer confidence, upend corporate profit margins, culminate with demand destruction and the stock market should suffer mightily (which is also bullish for the U.S. dollar). As a result, with Powell creating an even larger inflationary wildfire the longer he waits, the PMs could confront immense volatility over the medium term.In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Oct. 5, though trouble looms large in the months ahead. With the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields ripe for upward re-ratings, the Fed’s “transitory” narrative hasn’t aged well. And with the PMs’ main villains doing a lot of their fundamental damage since Powell turned hawkish, more upside catalysts should emerge over the medium term. As a result, the PMs’ outlook remains profoundly bearish over the next few months.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and silver that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Attempts To Rebound

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Attempts To Rebound

Jing Ren Jing Ren 20.10.2021 09:08
Gold inched higher as the dollar index hit a two-week low. The latest rebound has been checked by the psychological level of 1800. With the RSI showing an overbought situation, short-term buyers were swift in taking profit from this resistance on the daily chart. The pullback has met buying interest over 1760. There is an expectation for sideways action in the next few hours as traders wait for a breakout. A deeper correction would test the floor at 1730, while a higher high may send the precious metal to the triple top at 1830. EURGBP breaks below support The sterling soared after BOE Governor Bailey said that the central bank may act to contain inflation. Sentiment has become increasingly bearish over the euro after its break below August’s low at 0.8450. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates an acceleration to the downside. An oversold RSI has led to a limited rebound towards 0.8485, which may turn out to be an opportunity to sell into strength. 0.8350 near February 2020’s lows would be the next target when momentum traders jump in to bid up the pound. US 30 recovers to previous peak The Dow Jones rallies as investors look past macro concerns and focus on earnings instead. The break above the supply zone around 35000 has prompted the bears to cover. The index then went on to recoup most losses from the September sell-off. With the short-side out of the picture, sentiment might have turned around. 35500 is a major resistance and a bullish breakout would resume the uptrend for new all-time highs. As the RSI suggests an overextension, 35050 is fresh support in case of retracement.
Will Evergrande Make Gold Grand?

Will Evergrande Make Gold Grand?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 12.11.2021 18:57
  Evergrande’s debt issues are a symptom of China’s deep structural problems. If the crisis spills over wider, gold may benefit, but we are still far from such a scenario. Beijing, we have a problem! Evergrande, one of China’s largest real estate developers and biggest companies in the world, is struggling to meet the interest payments on its debts. As the company has more than $300 billion worth of liabilities, its recent liquidity problems have sparked fears in the financial markets. They also triggered a wave of questions: will Evergrande become a Chinese Lehman Brothers? Is the Chinese economy going to collapse or stagnate? Will Evergrande make gold grand? The answer to the first question is: no, the possible default of Evergrande likely won’t cause a global contagion in the same way as Lehman Brothers did. Why? First of all, Lehman Brothers collapsed because of the run in the repo market and the following liquidity crisis. As the company was exposed to subprime assets, investors lost confidence and the bank lost its access to cheap credit. Lehman Brothers tried to sell its assets, which plunged the prices of a wide range of financial assets, putting other institutions into trouble. Unlike Lehman Brothers, Evergrande is not an investment bank but a real estate developer. It doesn’t have so many financial assets, and it’s not a key player in the repo market. The exposure of important global financial institutions to Evergrande is much smaller. What’s more, we haven’t seen a credit freeze yet, nor an endless wave of selling across almost all asset classes, which took place during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Given that the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy was ultimately positive for gold (although the price of the yellow metal declined initially during the phase of wide sell-offs), the fact that Evergrande probably doesn’t pose similar risks to the global economy could be disappointing for gold bulls. However, gold bulls could warmly welcome my answer to the second question: the case of Evergrande reveals deep and structural problems of China’s economy, namely its heavy reliance on debt and the real estate sector. As the chart below shows, the debt of the private non-financial sector has increased from about 145% of GDP after the Great Recession to 220% in the first quarter of 2021. So, China has experienced a massive increase in debt since the global financial crisis, reaching levels much higher than in the case of other economies. The rise in indebtedness allowed China to continue its economic expansion, but questions arose about the quality and sustainability of that growth. As Daniel Lacalle points out, The problem with Evergrande is that it is not an anecdote, but a symptom of a model based on leveraged growth and seeking to inflate GDP at any cost with ghost cities, unused infrastructure, and wild construction. Indeed, the levels and rates of growth of China’s private debt are similar to the countries that have experienced spectacular financial crises, such as Japan, Thailand, or Spain. But the significance of China’s real estate sector is much higher. According to the paper by Rogoff and Yang, the real-estate sector accounts for nearly 30% of China’s GDP. On the other hand, China has a relatively high savings rate, while debt is mostly of domestic nature. China’s financial ties to the world are not very strong, which limits the contagion risks. What is more, the Chinese government has acknowledged the problem of excessive debts in the private sector and started a few years ago making some efforts to curb it. The problems of Evergrande can be actually seen as the results of these deleveraging attempts. Therefore, I’m not sure whether China’s economy will collapse anytime soon, but its pace of growth is likely to slow down further. The growth model based on debt and investments (mainly in real estate) has clearly reached its limit. In other words, the property boom must end. Rogoff and Yang estimate that “a 20% fall in real estate activity could lead to a 5-10% fall in GDP”. Such growth slowdown and inevitable adjustments in China’s economy will have significant repercussions on the global economy, as – according to some research – China’s construction sector is now the most important sector for the global economy in terms of its impact on global GDP. In particular, the prices of commodities used in the construction sector may decline and the countries that export to China may suffer. Given that China was the engine of global growth for years, it will also slow down, and, with lower production, it’s possible that inflation will be higher. Finally, what do the problems of China’s real estate sector imply for the gold market? Well, in the short term, not so much. Gold is likely to remain under downward pressure resulting from the prospects of the Fed’s tightening cycle. However, if Evergrande’s problems spill over, affecting China’s economy or (a bit later) even the global economy, the situation may change. Other Chinese developers (such as Fantasia or Sinic) also have problems with debt payments, as investors are not willing to finance new issues of bonds. In such a scenario, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset might increase, although investors have to remember that the initial rush could be into cash (the US dollar) rather than gold. Unless China’s problems pose a serious threat to the American economy, the appreciation of the greenback will likely counterweigh the gains from safe-haven inflows into gold. So far, financial markets have remained relatively undisturbed by the Evergrande case. Nevertheless, I will closely monitor any upcoming developments in China’s economy and their possible effects on the gold market. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Saxo Bank 2022 Outrageous Predictions: Here comes a revolution!

Saxo Bank 2022 Outrageous Predictions: Here comes a revolution!

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 02.12.2021 14:35
Saxo Bank has today released its 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2022. The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets: The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Facebook faceplants on youth exodus The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years While these predictions do not constitute Saxo’s official market forecasts for 2022, they represent a warning against the potential misallocation of risk among investors who might typically assign just a one percent chance of these events materialising.  It’s an exercise in considering the full extent of what is possible, even if not necessarily probable, and particularly relevant in the context of this year’s unexpected Covid-19 crisis. Inevitably the outcomes that prove the most disruptive (and therefore outrageous) are those that are a surprise to consensus. Commenting on this year’s Outrageous Predictions, Chief Investment Officer at Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen said:   “The theme for 2022 Outrageous Predictions is Revolution. There is so much energy building up in our inequality-plagued society and economy. Add to that the inability of the current system to address the issue and we need to look into the future with a fundamental view that it’s not a question of whether we get a revolution but a more a question of when and how. With every revolution, some win and some lose, but that’s not the point—if the current system can’t change but must, a revolution is the only path forward. A culture war is raging across the globe and the divide is no longer simply between the rich and the poor. It’s also the young versus the old, the educated class versus the less educated working class, real markets with price discovery versus government intervention, stock market buy-backs versus R&D spending, inflation versus deflation, women versus men, the progressive left versus the centrist left, virtual signalling on social media versus real changes to society, the rentier class versus labour, fossil fuels versus green energy, ESG initiatives versus the need to supply the world with reliable energy—the list go on. We collaborated globally on Covid vaccines in 2020 and 2021. Now we need a new Manhattan Project–-type endeavour to set the marginal cost of energy, adjusted for productivity, on the path to much lower levels while eliminating the impact of our energy generation on the environment. Such a move would unleash the most significant productivity cycle in history: we could desalinate water, make vertical farms feasible almost anywhere, increase computer powers to quantum states, and continue to explore new boundaries in biology and physics.” Remember that the world is forever evolving if at varying speeds, while business and political cycles are always finite.” The Outrageous Predictions 2022 publication is available here with headline summaries below: 1. The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Summary: Policymakers kick climate targets down the road and support fossil fuel investment to fight inflation and the risk of social unrest while rethinking the path to a low-carbon future. Realising the inflationary threat from surging commodities prices and the risk of an economic train wreck due to the unrealistic timeline for the green energy transition, policymakers kick climate targets down the road. They relax investment red tape for five years for oil production and ten years for natural gas production, to encourage producers to ensure adequate and reasonably priced supplies that bridge the gap from the energy present to the low-carbon energy future. This development has already jacked up prices and price volatility, not only for energy, but also for industrial metals, most of which are needed in greater quantities for the green transformation push. On top of this, surging energy prices have spiked prices for diesel and especially fertiliser, important farming costs that raise concerns about the production of key food crops. Market impact: The iShares Stoxx EU 600 Oil & Gas ETF (Ticker: EXH1:xetr) surges 50 percent as the whole energy sector gets a new lease on life 2. Facebook faceplants on youth exodus Summary: The young abandon Facebook’s platforms in protest at the mining of personal information for profit; the attempt by Facebook parent Meta to reel them back in with the Metaverse stumbles. Facebook has gone from being a vibrant hub of young people, to a platform for older “boomers” as young people would say. Young people are increasingly turned off by Facebook’s algorithms turning their social media experiences into that of homogenous feedback loops of identical content, or even worse, hateful and disinforming content. Facebook’s own research suggests that teens spend 2 to 3 times longer on TikTok than on Instagram (which is Facebook’s youngest social media asset), and that Snapchat is the preferred way to communicate with friends. A new company name (Facebook is now called Meta) and brand identity to separate and shield Instagram (its most valuable current asset), together with creating a new product tailored towards young people, is the exact same playbook tobacco companies have used for years. But in 2022, investors will realise that Meta is rapidly losing the young generation and thus the future potential and profitability of the company. In a desperate move, Meta tries to acquire Snapchat or TikTok while throwing billions of dollars into building the creepy Metaverse, which is aimed at surveilling users more directly than ever before and getting young people back into Meta’s universe of social media platforms, in the perceived wisdom that being a first mover is always best in technology. The plan struggles to take off as the young generation fails to sign up. Market impact: Facebook parent company Meta struggles, down 30 percent versus the broader market and is urged to spin off its components as separate entities, shattering Zuckerberg’s monopolistic dreams. 3. The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis Summary: The US mid-term election sees a stand-off over the certification of close Senate and/or House election results, leading to a scenario where the 118th Congress is unable to sit on schedule in early 2023. The chaotic 2020 US Presidential Election was a scary moment for many US institutions. The sitting president Donald J. Trump initially refused to conceded defeat in the election and complained that the election was stolen, a claim that was never seriously challenged in a court of law but one which had widespread sympathy among the Trump base. A crowd of hard-core believers in the stolen election conspiracy was encouraged by the President’s rhetoric to a sufficient degree to storm Capitol Hill and “stop the steal”, i.e., to prevent the election result from being made official on January 6, 2021, in a scene unprecedented in US history. Prior to this, and then again later in the hotly contested Senate run-off elections in Georgia, dedicated election officials—many of them Republican—were doing their duty to tally the real results while risking their life amidst threats—even death threats—from extremists. In 2022, the Republicans ensure that no such traditional duty-bound officials are in the “wrong” place, with all election-related positions filled by toe-the-line partisans ready to do anything to tilt the results to suppressing voter turnout. In the wake of the 2022 election, a handful of key Senate and House races come down to the wire and one or both sides move against certifying the vote, making it impossible for the new Congress to form and sit on its scheduled first day of January 3, 2023. Joe Biden rules by decree and US democracy is suspended as even Democrats also dig in against the Supreme Court that was tilted heavily by Trump. A full-blown constitutional crisis stretches over the horizon over the stand-off as 2023 gets under way. Market impact: extreme volatility in US assets, as US treasury yields rise and the USD drops on hedging against the existential crisis in the world’s largest economy and issuer of the world’s reserve currency of choice. 4. US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral Summary: By the fourth quarter of 2022, the wages for the lower half of US incomes are rising at an annualised 15% clip as companies scramble to find willing and qualified workers who are increasingly selective due to a rising sense of entitlement as jobs are plentiful relative to the meagre availability of workers at all skill levels. The official US CPI reached a peak at 11.8% in February 1975. It wasn’t until the recession of 1980-82 and brutal policy rate increases to levels as high as 20% that inflation was finally killed. In 2022, the Federal Reserve and Fed chair Jerome Powell repeats the same mistake all over again as the post-Covid outbreak economy and especially the labour market are severely supply constrained, making a mockery of the Fed’s traditional models. Powell believes millions of Americans will return to work and fill some of the 10.4 million open job positions as Covid-19 fades. But this is plain wrong. Some have retired early due to the crisis and thus have permanently left the US workforce. The big difference between today and yesterday is that the pandemic has fuelled a great awakening of workers. Across sectors and income classes they realise they are now more empowered than ever. They demand a better experience: better job conditions, higher wages, more flexibility and a sense of purpose from work. Coupled with persistent inflationary pressures coming from the production side, the energy crisis and labour shortage, this results in unprecedented broad-based double-digit annualised wage increases by Q4. As a consequence, US inflation reaches an annualised pace above 15% before the start of 2023, for the first time since WWII. This prompts the Federal Reserve into a too-little, too-late move to tighten monetary policy faster in a desperate effort to tame inflation. But the central bank has lost credibility; it will take time to regain it. Market impact: extreme volatility in US equity and credit markets. The JNK high-yield ETF falls as much as 20% and the VIXM mid-curve volatility ETF soars as much as 70%. 5. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Summary: To defend against the rise of populism, deepen the commitment to slowing climate change, and defend its borders as the US security umbrella recedes, the EU launches a bold $3 trillion Superfund to be funded by pension allocations rather than new taxes. The security umbrella provided by the US during the Cold War and afterwards over much of Eastern Europe is rapidly fading and threatens to fail entirely in the years ahead as the US looks east at far more serious economic and military rivals. French President Macron, backed by a Draghi moving to stave off Italy’s own rise of the populists, rolls out a vision for an “EU Superfund” that will address the three-fold priorities of defence, climate and the related clean energy transition. Given the EU’s aging population and heavy tax burdens, policymakers know that it will be impossible to finance the Superfund with higher taxes on incomes or other traditional tax revenues. Instead, France has a light-bulb moment as it seeks to overhaul its pension system and looks at Europe’s enormous pensions. It decides that all pensions for all workers above the age of 40 must allocate a progressively larger portion of their pension assets into Superfund bonds as they age. This allows new levels of fiscal stimulus in the EU even with the sleight-of-hand trick of hiding the spending in inflation and negative real returns on low-yielding Superfund bonds that are actually EU bonds in disguise. At the same the younger generation enjoys a stronger job market and less unfair tax burdens as the system proves such a success that income taxes are lowered progressively. Market impact: Bond yields harmonise across Europe, leading to German Bunds underperforming. EU defence, construction and new energy companies are some of the best performers. 6. Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy Summary: Mimicking the meme stock Reddit Army tactics of 2020-21, a group of women traders launch a coordinated assault on companies with weak records on gender equality, leading to huge swings in equity prices for targeted companies. Women are not willing to wait any longer. Tired of the lack of progress, 2022 sees a massive grass-roots effort based on social media platforms to force companies that break civil rights laws to address unfair and sexist, racist, ageist and ableist practices. Although women have been struggling with lower salaries, they have higher saving rates than men. Those savings will now come in handy as they decide to take the situation into their own hands and throw their considerable influence around in a #metoo movement in financial markets. In contrast to the often-nihilistic original Reddit Army, the Women’s Reddit Army will be more sophisticated, with women traders coordinating a long squeeze by shorting stocks of selected patriarch companies. At the same time, they will direct funds to companies with the best metrics on female representation in middle management and among executives. Instead of condemning the development, politicians worldwide welcome and support their cause, putting even more pressure on companies with outdated patriarchal attitudes, poor gender equality in pay, and under-representation of women on boards and in management to address the errors of their ways. Market impact: The movement gets real results as the broader market catches on to the theme and joins in, forcing targeted company prices sharply lower, which sees companies scrambling to change their ways. It marks the beginning of a gender parity renaissance in markets. 7. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member Summary: The world’s geopolitical alliances will lurch into a phase of drastic realignment as we have an ugly cocktail of new deglobalising geopolitics and much higher energy prices. Countries reliant on imports for the majority of their energy inputs in a rapidly deglobalising world will need to move fast to strategically reorientate strategic alliances and secure long-term energy supplies. One such alliance could involve India, with its mighty technology sector, joining the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as non-voting member, or in some sort of free trade zone. This alliance would see a reduction in India’s energy insecurity as it secures long-term import commitments. Interregional trading zones will secure “closer to home” production and investment, combined with the security of reliable supplies from India’s point of view, and a reliable destination market from the GCC’s point of view. The alliance helps lay the groundwork for the GCC countries to plan for their future beyond oil and gas and for India to accelerate its development via huge new investments in infrastructure and improvements in agricultural productivity together with fossil fuel imports, bridging the way to a post-carbon longer-term future. Market impact: The Indian rupee proves far more resilient than its EM peers in a volatile year for markets. The bubbly Indian stock market corrects with other equity markets in early 2022 but proves a strong relative performer from the intra-year lows. 8. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform Summary: Musicians are ready for change as the current music streaming paradigm means that labels and streaming platforms capture 75-95 percent of revenue paid for listening to streamed music. In 2022, new blockchain-based technology will help them grab back their fair share of industry revenues. While the early days of NFTs have looked chaotic and dangerous for asset buyers, the outlook is bright for NFT technology. Not only does an NFT-based platform offer a new way to verify the ownership of rights, but also a way to distribute rights without intermediaries, i.e., a completely decentralised system obviating the need for a centralised platform. The use case for NFTs could prove particularly compelling in the next step for the technology for content generators in the music industry as musicians feel unfairly treated by the revenue sharing models of the current streaming platforms like Spotify and Apple Music. These models don’t guide individual subscribers’ fees to the actual music an individual subscriber listens to. Rather, all subscription fee revenues are aggregated and distributed based on every artist’s share of total streams. In addition, the platforms take a substantial cut, which together with the cut paid to labels is some 75 percent or more of the total revenue. In 2022, an NFT-based service takes hold and begins offering music from notable stars – perhaps the likes of Katy Perry, The Chainsmokers and Jason Derulo, all of whom have recently backed an effort to create a new blockchain-powered streaming platform. Other well-known artists begin pulling their music from the now “traditional” streaming platforms, which suddenly find themselves terminally disrupted. Investors see the eventual writing on the wall for podcasts, movies and other forms of digitisable contents as well. Market impact: Investors recognise that Spotify’s future is bleak, sending its shares down 33 percent in 2022. 9. New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Summary: The latest hypersonic missile tests are driving a widening sense of insecurity as this tech renders legacy conventional and even nuclear military hardware obsolete. In 2022 a massive hypersonic arms race develops among major militaries as no country wants to feel left behind. In 2022, it is clear from funding priorities that hypersonics and space are the heart of a new phase of the deepening rivalry between the US and China on all fronts—economic and military. Other major powers with advanced military tech join in as well, likely including Russia, India, Israel and the EU. Hypersonic capabilities represent a game-changing threat to the long-standing military strategic status quo, as the technology brings asymmetric new defensive and offensive capabilities that upset the two massive pillars of military strategy of recent decades. The first is the potential for devastating hypersonic tech defence against the conventional attack capabilities of long-range bombing aircraft, as well as the so-called “deep water” navy of ships that can bring the fight to any corner of the globe without refuelling. The second pillar of the old Cold War era was the principle of mutually assured destruction (MAD) in the event of nuclear war, under which it was pointless to launch a nuclear war as long as there was still time for the opponent to launch an equally destructive ICBM counterattack from land- and submarine-based ballistic missiles. But the speed and agility of hypersonic tech introduces the belief that superior defence could thwart an attack entirely and even allow for new first-strike capabilities. Market impact: massive funding for companies like Raytheon that build hypersonic tech with space delivery capabilities and underperformance of “expensive conventional hardware” companies in the aircraft and ship-building side of the military hardware equation. 10. Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years Summary: Young forever, or for at least a lot longer. In 2022, a key breakthrough in biomedicine brings the prospect of extending productive adulthood and the average life expectancy by up to 25 years, prompting projected ethical, environmental and fiscal crises of epic proportions. The year 2022 sees a breakthrough from a multi-factor approach, as a cocktail of treatments is put together that tweaks cell-level processes in order to extend their life and thus the life of the organism composed of those cells. It’s not cheap, but it’s effective and has already been demonstrated on laboratory mice containing human DNA, extending their lives some 30% and more. The prospect of a massive leap in human quality of life and life expectancy are huge wins for mankind but bring an enormous ethical and financial quandary. Imagine that almost everyone can look forward to living to an average age of 115 and more healthily. What would this mean for private and government pensions, or even the ability or desire to retire? And what about the cost to the planet if it is set to support billions more people, not to mention whether or not there is enough food to go around? And then there is the ethical question of whether it is humane to not make the cocktail available to everyone. In short, how would our value systems, political systems and planet cope?
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Breakout - 03.12.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Breakout - 03.12.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.12.2021 09:42
XAUUSD tests key support Gold treads water as markets await US jobs data release. The metal remains under pressure after it failed to maintain bids above 1780. Sellers are testing the daily support at 1760. A bearish breakout would shatter hopes of a swift rebound and send the price to last September’s low at 1725. That move could then threaten the integrity of the uptrend on a longer timeframe. 1806 is a fresh resistance and sellers could be waiting to double down at a better price. On the upside, a bullish breakout may propel the metal to 1845. EURUSD attempts bullish reversal The euro recoups losses as traders reposition ahead of today’s nonfarm payrolls. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the bearish push. The pair has found support near June 2020’s lows around 1.1190. Then successive breaks above 1.1270 and 1.1370 have prompted short interests to bail, paving the way for a potential reversal. 1.1460 next to the 30-day moving average would be the target and its breach may turn sentiment around. 1.1240 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. US 500 heads towards daily support The S&P 500 continues on its way down as investors jump ship amid the omicron scare. The latest rebound has been capped by 4650, a sign that the bears are in control of short-term price action. A combination of pessimism and lack of buying interest means that the index is stuck in a bearish spiral. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound as intraday sellers cover their positions. 4450 at the origin of a previous bullish breakout would be the next target. 4360 is a second line of defense that sits in a daily demand zone.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Treads Water - 07.12.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Treads Water - 07.12.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 07.12.2021 09:00
GBPUSD attempts to rebound The sterling consolidates as BOE officials stress due to inflationary pressure from a tight labor market. So far, rebounds have been an opportunity for trend followers to sell into strength. The pound is testing last December’s demand zone around 1.3200. An oversold RSI may help lift bids momentarily as sellers take profit. 1.3300 is the immediate resistance. Then the bulls will need to clear the origin of the latest sell-off at 1.3370 to attract more buying interest. On the downside, a breakout would send the price to 1.3100. NZDUSD sticks to downtrend The US dollar edged higher thanks to a rally in Treasury yields. Increasing divergence between the 20 and 30-day moving averages suggests a deterioration in market sentiment. On the hourly chart, a short-lived rebound has struggled to stay above 0.6780. And that is a sign that the bears are still in control of the direction. 0.6700 is the next support. Its breach would extend the sell-off to November 2020’s lows near 0.6600. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a limited rebound with 0.6810 as the closest resistance. US 30 breaks higher The Dow Jones recoups losses as the omicron variant may have less impact than feared. The index bounced off last October’s lows around 34000. An oversold RSI in this demand zone has attracted a crowd to buy the dips. A break above 34950 and then 35300 would prompt short-term sellers to cover, paving the way for a sustainable rally. 35950 would be a key hurdle and its breach may turn the cautious mood around and resume the bullish trend. 34700 is the first support when the bulls try to catch their breath.
Why Successful Traders Make More By Trading Less

Why Successful Traders Make More By Trading Less

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 06.01.2022 18:20
During my 25 years of trading and mentoring others, I have been dragged through the coals a few times. And by that, I mean I have; blown up a few trading accounts; had some massive gains only to watch them turn into worthless penny stocks, and; I even had one trade based around the volatility index blow up and become worthless the day after I bought it. I've had many other painful and costly trading experiences between those as well, and I know there will be more in the future. This leads me to the first topic I would like to talk about – learning through experience.#1 - Learned Through Expensive ExperiencesI help a lot of traders each year from all walks of life. They range from 18 to 85+ years of age. Some are total newbies, financial advisors, money managers, all the way up to billionaires. What is apparent is that the most successful traders (those who make money year after year) have the same things in common with how they trade. They all: walk a straight and somewhat unemotional line outside of learning from losses and trading mistakes.  focus on managing their capital because they understand just how quick and easy it is to lose money, which is why they focus and follow strict rules. follow very specific trading strategies/rules and do not trade on emotions. protect their capital ALWAYS with stops and position management only trade specific trade setups that put the probabilities in their favor focus heavily on index and bond positions say their trading feels slow/boring most of the time trade multiple strategies#2 - Ignore High Flying, News, Manipulated, and Hype Based MovesIt's hard not to participate in some of these wild rallies and stock crashes we have seen over the last couple of years. It's a natural tendency to want to take part in what everyone else is doing, and the lure of instant oversized gains is powerful. But, unfortunately, most individuals who get involved in these trades lose money for a good reason. They are trading based on greed/emotions with no real measured trading plan.Don't get me wrong; I'm not saying, "don't trade these stocks." In fact, many of these are incredible opportunities for experienced traders. These types of stocks generally become ideal for day traders and even momentum and aggressive swing traders. They can provide some quick extra cash. But that's what these types of trades are - small, fast, higher risk trades that only a seasoned trader should trade.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!For some reason, traders come into this business thinking it's a game and believes these are the types of trades that should always be traded. They take oversized positions only to experience significant damaging losses to their account.I conducted a survey a little while back, and the survey results blew my mind. Most people want to trade the volatile media-driven hype stocks and commodities. People fall in love with specific assets and want to trade only those, even if there are better assets and more efficient ways to pull money out of the market.The results below frustrate the heck out of me because, to me, it makes no logical sense if you are in the market to make money.Trader Survey Results Confirm Why it is Hard To Make MoneyThe above results make sense as studies have proven that humans react seven times more based on emotions versus logic. This is why the stock market has such wild price swings with Euphoric blowoff tops and Panic washout lows.People are highly addicted to riding their emotions (adrenaline/dopamine), and they love the rush of fast-moving stocks and gambling, which is why the markets are regulated, along with casinos, for that matter. Simply put, people lose control of common sense and logic when they are on tilt with emotion.Fast-moving assets with extreme volatility act as a bug-zapper light, which attracts bugs, only to kill anything that gets too close. In this case, new traders think they can make quick and easy money from hot stock in the news.Trading is a numbers game, and it requires logic, rules,and a proven strategy to win long-term.Based on the survey we did with thousands of traders, you can see that making the same amount of money with fewer trades and lower risk is not that exciting. Instead, traders prefer high volatility assets like metals, and natural gas, which are manipulated and have large wild price swings.Also, from a trading statics point of view, those two are among the most difficult to trade.As a pilot, I know the importance of keeping calm, having checklists/rules, and systems in place. Without them, you will eventually crash and burn; it is just a matter of time. The same holds true for trading and investing in that you need to trade what makes the most money, trade only the best setups, and have the lowest risk.Hottest Symbols vs Biggest TrendsBottom line, I don't care about trading every day or trying to catch the hottest symbols everyone is talking about. Instead, I care about catching and riding the biggest trends in the US stock index and the Treasury Bond ETFs. These are highly liquid sentiment trends that produce oversized gains each year. This is also the reason ETFs have taken over the mutual fund market and why financial advisors and hedge funds primarily trade/own stock index funds and bonds.Through the Technical Index and Bond ETF Trading strategy, I help individuals and advisors trade more efficiently. This strategy trades SPY, SSO, SPXL, QQQ, QLD, TQQQ and TLT, TBT, TMF, which generate large, compounded returns as shown in the chart below:This proprietary ETF trading strategy is straightforward and only generates about 3 to 10 trades per year. Most traders dislike this type of strategy because it lacks lots of action and volatility. If you noticed, you won't find many professional advisors telling you to jump into the fast-moving hype stocks, and for a good reason - they know better and want to protect your hard-earned capital. #3 - The Power Of Slow & Steady Gains Are Mind-Bending!As I learned a long time ago (and this holds true for almost everything across the board), learning something new, like mastering how to trade slower, consistent strategies, can take some getting used to. Everything new will always be a challenge, but once you master something, it becomes simple, low stress, and you will experience more consistent results.Take a look at this data from an Atalanta Sosnoff report. This should get my point across about how powerful slow, boring, consistent returns pack a powerful punch and why thousands of traders from 82 countries follow my index and bond trading signals.Source: Eagle Asset Management.The Technical Index & Bond ETF trading strategy has consistently produced positive annual results (CGAR average ROI 15% - 51% depending on ETF leverage, only 7 - 21% max drawdown). If you traded with the 2x or 3x ETFs, you would have crushed the S&P 500 every year and experienced that rush feeling that leverage/volatility provides but within a safer/smarter way.Passive trading styles like this are a bit different from those you may have traded in the past. My objectives consist of four very important concepts:Protect Capital At All Times.Trade Only When Strategically Opportunistic (probabilities are favorable).Trade Efficiently Using Bonds As Trade When Fear Rises among traders and investors.Move to cash or money market fund when the index and bonds are both out of favor.Concluding Thoughts:In short, I hope this has helped confirm your thinking of trading less and focusing on more solid trade setups. Or maybe it has opened your eyes to the world of slow and steady gains wins the race, with much less stress and effort.If you are interested in learning more about TIBT – Technical Index & Bond Trader, I invite you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/twa 
Miners Should Prepare a Pillow: Gold's Hard Landing Can Hurt

Miners Should Prepare a Pillow: Gold's Hard Landing Can Hurt

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 07.01.2022 15:54
  As in sports, a weak market streak can reverse in the next season. However, the precious metals team looks like it’s about to drop out of the league. While gold, silver, and mining stocks were in the holiday spirit during the final weeks of 2021, I warned on Jan. 4 that the GDXJ ETF’s sleigh was headed for an epic crash. I wrote: The GDXJ ETF’s corrective upswing has likely run its course. Interestingly, the junior miners’ current rally mirrors the small correction that materialized in mid-2021 (early August). Back then, the GDXJ ETF rallied on low volume and didn’t recapture its 50-day moving average. With the same tepid strength present today, the drawdown that followed in mid-2021 will likely commence once again. On top of that, the behavior of the GDXJ ETF’s RSI is also similar – with the indicator moving from roughly 30 to 50. For context, I highlighted the similarities with green and purple ellipses below. Also noteworthy, similar developments occurred in February/March 2020, before the profound plunge unfolded. As a result, the GDXJ ETF looks set for another sharp drawdown over the medium term. After the junior mining stocks ETF proceeded to decline by more than 6% in two days, my short position rang in the New Year with solid gains. What’s more, with the GDXJ ETF likely to break below its 2021 lows over the medium term, winter woes should materialize before a long-term buying opportunity emerges. Please see below: Likewise, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling an ominous outcome for the senior miners, I warned that a sell-off was likely on the horizon. For context, I highlighted the historical similarities with the blue vertical dashed lines below. Moreover, with the GDX ETF’s weakness accelerating on Jan. 5/6, the senior miners have declined sharply in recent days. In addition, the current price action mirrors the senior miners’ ominous performance in July/August 2021 – just like I’ve been describing it for a few weeks now. As a result, the previous corrective upswing is likely over, and the GDX ETF should confront lower lows sooner rather than later. For context, a breakdown below the 2021 lows should materialize over the medium term, and the forecast for gold, as well as gold stocks, is bearish for the next several weeks / months. However, the milestone may not occur over the next few days. Turning to the HUI Index’s long-term chart, the same bearish signals are present. For example, I marked the specific tops with red and black arrows. In the current situation, we saw yet another small move up, but that’s most likely because the price moves are now less volatile. The areas marked with red ellipses remain similar and show back-and-forth movement before the big decline. As such, while we’ve entered a consolidation phase, this week’s selling pressure has been quite ferocious. Thus, the implications are not bullish but bearish. Finally, the GDX/GDXJ ratio continues to perform as expected. For example, I warned throughout 2021 that the ratio was destined for devaluation. ith the metric kicking off 2022 with another decline, the GDXJ ETF continues to underperform the GDX ETF. For context, I believe that gold, silver, and the GDX ETF are all ripe for sharp re-ratings over the medium term. However, I think that the GDXJ ETF offers the best risk-reward ratio due to its propensity to materially underperform during bear markets. As a result, shorting junior miners offers a great risk to reward trade-off. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks began 2022 with the same weakness that plagued them in 2021. While the worst performers one year often become the best performers the next, the charts signal more weakness ahead. As a result, while the precious metals are poised to soar over the long term, lower lows will likely materialize before their secular uptrends resume. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
S&P 500: Bulls Are Coming Back?

S&P 500: Bulls Are Coming Back?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 12.01.2022 15:42
  Stocks retraced some more of their recent declines on Tuesday. Will the market continue higher following today’s consumer inflation data? The S&P 500 index gained 0.92% yesterday, as it got back above the 4,700 level. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its advance following Monday’s upward reversal from the local low of 4,582.24. It was a dip-buying opportunity, however the short-term advance still looks like an upward correction within a new downtrend. The broad stock market continues to trade within an over two-month long consolidation. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index fell to its previous trading range. On Dec. 3 the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the previous record high. So it was a pretty mild downward correction or just a consolidation following last year’s advances. The nearest important resistance level is at 4,700-4,720 and the next resistance level is at around 4,750. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,650. And the important support level is now at 4,580-4,600, marked by Monday’s daily low. The S&P 500 is close to its November-December local highs again, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Apple Bounced From the $170 Price Level Last week, Apple stock broke below its two-month long upward trend line after reaching the new record high of $182.94 on Tuesday. So far, it looks like a downward correction and the nearest important support level is at $165-170, marked by the previous highs and lows. The stock trades within an over month-long consolidation of around $170-180. Is this a medium-term topping pattern? It’s getting very hard to fundamentally justify the Apple’s current market capitalization of around $3 trillion. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% higher this morning following the Consumer Price Index release which was slightly higher than expected at +0.5% m/m. So the broad stock market will retrace more of the recent declines. However, we may see a profit taking action later in the day. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 extended its short-term uptrend yesterday. It may be still a correction within a downtrend or some further consolidation along the 4,700 level. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

MATIC Price Prediction: Polygon hints at a retest of $1.95

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.02.2022 16:35
MATIC price is hovering above the weekly support level at $1.44, hinting at a move higher. Investors can expect Polygon to rally at least 15% before encountering a tough hurdle. A breakdown of the $1.41 support level will invalidate the bullish thesis. MATIC price recovery after the January flash crash was good but is slowing down. The ongoing consolidation will likely result in an uptrend (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/matic-price-consolidates-before-jumping-to-190-202202022123) that propels Polygon to revisit crucial levels. MATIC price sets the stage MATIC price has been teetering above the $1.44 support level and will likely retest it soon. A bounce off this barrier could be the key to triggering an uptrend. In some cases, the rally could even begin before the initial pullback. Regardless, investors can expect a minimum 15% ascent from MATIC price that tags the supply zone’s lower limit at $1.75. In a highly bullish scenario, Polygon could pierce this hurdle and make a run for the weekly resistance barrier at $1.95. This move would bring total gains from 15% to 27%, from the current level at $1.53. Investors willing to go long could enter a pilot position at the current level and wait for a retest of the $1.44 barrier. If the latter does not arrive, market participants can book profits following a retest of $1.75 and $1.95. MATIC/USDT 4-hour chart While things seem straightforward for MATIC price, a breakdown of the $1.44 support level could dent their optimism. A four-hour candlestick close below $1.41, however, will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis, making an ideal place to enter a stop-loss. A bearish turn could see MATIC price crashing 13% before retesting the $1.23 weekly support level.
Payrolls Release: Gold Reacted Quickly And Decreased... And Got Back In The Game A Moment Later!

Payrolls Release: Gold Reacted Quickly And Decreased... And Got Back In The Game A Moment Later!

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 08.02.2022 16:42
  The latest employment report strongly supports the Fed’s hawkish narrative. Surprisingly, gold has shown remarkable resilience against it so far. What a surprise! The US labor market added 467,000 jobs last month. As the chart below shows, the number is below December’s figure (+510,000) but much above market expectations – MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted only 150,000 added jobs. Thus, the report reinforces the optimistic view of the US economy’s strength, especially given that the surprisingly good nonfarm payrolls came despite the disruption to consumer-facing businesses from the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. The unemployment rate increased slightly from 3.9% in December to 4% in January, as the chart above shows. However, it was accompanied by a rise in both the labor force participation rate (from 61.9% to 62.2%) and the employment-population ratio (from 59.5% to 59.7%). Last but not least, average hourly earnings have jumped 5.7% over the last 12 months, as you can see in the next chart. It indicates that wage inflation has intensified recently, despite the surge in COVID-19 cases that was expected by some analysts to dent demand for workers. Hence, the January employment report will cement the hawkish case for the Fed. Rising wages will add to the argument for decisive hiking of interest rates, while the surprisingly strong payrolls will strengthen the Fed’s confidence in the US economy.   Implications for Gold What does the latest employment report imply for the gold market? The unexpectedly high payrolls should be negative for the yellow metal. However, while gold prices initially plunged below $1,800, they rebounded quickly, returning above its key level, as the chart below shows. Gold’s resilience in the face of a strong jobs report is noteworthy and quite encouraging. After all, the report strengthened the US dollar and boosted market expectations of a 50-basis point hike in the federal funds rate in March (from 2.6% one month ago to more than 14% now). Such a big move is unlikely, but the point is that financial conditions are tightening without waiting for the Fed’s actual actions. In the past, gold disliked strong economic reports and rising bond yields and showed a negative correlation with nonfarm payrolls, but not this time. More generally, although long-term fundamentals have turned more bearish in recent months, gold has remained stuck at $1,800. However, last week, two factors could have supported gold prices. The first was rising volatility in the equity market. The S&P 500 Index dropped almost 500 points, or 10%, in January, as the chart below shows. Although it has recovered somewhat, it still remains substantially below the top, with the tech sector experiencing weakness. On Thursday, the shares of Meta, Facebook’s parent company, plunged more than 20%. The second potentially bullish driver was last Thursday’s meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council. The central bank of the Eurozone was more hawkish than expected. Christine Lagarde acknowledged inflationary risks and said that she had become more concerned with the recent surge in inflation. According to initial estimates, the annual inflation rate in the euro area amounted to 5.1% in January 2022, the highest since the common currency was created. Lagarde also backed off her previous guidance that the interest rate hike was “very unlikely” in 2022. The ECB’s pivot – the central bank opening the door for the first rate increase since 2011 – boosted the euro against the greenback. The bottom line is that gold has made itself comfortable around $1,800 and simply doesn’t want – or is not ready – to go away in either direction, at least not yet. The battle between bulls and bears is still on. I’m afraid that, given the relatively aggressive monetary and financial tightening, the sellers will win this clash and gold will drop before the bulls can regain control over the market. However, recent gold’s resilience indicates that there is an underlying bid in the markets and bulls are not giving up. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Having A Look At The Markets Considering Tensions, COVID-19 And National Banks Decisions

EURUSD Keeps Plain Line, US 30 With A Bounce, GBPUSD Gains A Bit

John Benjamin John Benjamin 09.02.2022 08:51
EURUSD hits resistance The euro fell back after ECB President Lagarde tried to cool rate hike expectations. The rally came under pressure at the January peak of 1.1480. The RSI’s overextension at this daily resistance prompted momentum buyers to cash in. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling may drive the exchange rate lower. Short-term sentiment remains upbeat though unless the single currency drops below the origin of its bullish push at 1.1270. A recovery above 1.1480 could pave the way to last October’s high at 1.1690. GBPUSD consolidates gains The sterling turns higher as traders price in an increasingly hawkish Bank of England. A break above 1.3520 forced sellers to cover some of their positions. However, the pound’s rally came to a halt in the supply zone around 1.3620. The RSI’s overbought situation and bearish divergence suggest softness in the underlying momentum. The pair found bids on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3490), which sits in the aforementioned supply area. A new rally may propel the pair to the daily resistance at 1.3750. US 30 bounces higher The Dow Jones 30 inches higher supported by better-than-expected earnings. The index steadied after successive breaks above 34800 and 35450. Nonetheless, the recent recovery slowed down on the 30-day moving average, a sign of a lingering cautious mood. 34500 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. A bearish breakout could extend the correction to 33800. On the upside, a rally above 35700 could attract momentum traders and initiate a bullish reversal to 36500.
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

Price Of Gold Hitting $2.000? Metal Seems To Feel Good

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 14.02.2022 07:34
Given last week’s strong price action and gold’s intraday resilience, it is now very likely that gold indeed is breaking out of the multi-month consolidation triangle. Actually, this large and symmetrical triangle had been building for more than a year, at least. However, the correction in gold began on August 7th, 2020. Now it looks like the breakout is in process. Typically, traders tend to aggressively buy into such a breakout. And given Friday’s sharp spike higher, it actually looks exactly like this. Hence, expect more volatility and a sharp move higher as the direction of gold’s next move has become more obvious. Please note, that it is rather challenging to draw and determine the correct triangle, because gold has been in a tricky sideways market for such a long time and many trend-lines have been invalidated during this messy period. But at the latest, a weekly close above US$1,875 should confirm the breakout. This should unleash enough energy to push gold prices quickly towards US$1,900 and even US$1,950 within a few weeks. Obviously, that would fit very well with gold’s seasonal cycle, which is bullish until the end of February at least, but often saw gold rallying into mid of march, too. Consumer sentiment at 10-year low but Fed wants to hike and taper From a fundamental perspective, it leaves us speechless how the Fed can go on a hiking rampage while consumer sentiment is at a 10-year low. While the confidence in governments worldwide is collapsing and inflation is spiking higher, raising rates will have zero impact upon supply shortages. Instead, it will make these shortages only worse and bankrupt more companies in the supply chain. Also, it will bankrupt emerging markets, as the strong dollar has already been putting so much pressure on dollar indebted nations and creditors. It’s all a big mess, and we believe there is no way out. That’s why the warmongering industrial and military complex of the US is desperately trying to push Russia into an attack on Ukraine! Without showing any proof, the Biden administration and their mouthpiece “the mainstream media” have been pushing people’s focus on fears that Russia will soon invade Ukraine. Another noteworthy fundamental observation: Gold’s correction began in earnest when Pfizer & Biontech announced their vaccine on November 9th, 2020. In a first reaction, gold immediately sold off $150 on that same day. Many more similar large red daily candles followed over the last 16 months, destroying the confidence of the gold bugs and shifting millions of dollars to the short sellers. Now that more and more very serious questions about the vaccines are debated in the news, it would make sense for gold to run back to US$1,950. This was the level where gold was trading back on November 9th, 2020. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the weekly chart, gold has been slowly but surely progressing into the apex of the triangle over the last few months. It now looks like Gold is breaking out with vengeance. Theoretically, the resistance zone between US$1,850 and US$1,875 could still stop the bullish train. The weekly Bollinger Bands (US$1,864) sits right in this zone and should at least challenge the bulls for some days. However, the weekly stochastic has just given a new buy signal. On top, the oscillator has been making higher lows since March 2021. A measured move out of this triangle could take gold to around US$1,950 to US$1.975 until spring. The monthly Bollinger Band ($1,975) could become the logical target! Overall, the weekly chart is becoming more and more bullish, suggesting that gold can at least move around US$80 to US$100 higher. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the daily chart, gold has been struggling with the upper triangle resistance in November and January. Each time, the bears managed to push back. Now it looks like the bulls are finally successful. The fierce and sharp pullback two and half weeks ago had created a nice oversold setup which became the launching pad for the ongoing attack. Since then, the slow stochastic has been nicely turning around. This buy signal is still active and has not yet reached the overbought zone. Thanks to Friday’s big green candle, the bulls are now bending the upper Bollinger Band (US$1,858) to the upside. To conclude, the daily chart is bullish, and gold should have more upside. If the bulls continue their attack, we could see prices directly exploding for four to seven days. More likely would be a consolidation. Only with prices below US$1,835 the breakout would have failed. In that rather unlikely case, the picture could quickly turn ugly again. Conclusion: Gold is breaking out! In mid of December, gold made an important low around US$1,752. Back then, most gold bugs had enough and did throw in the towel after a very difficult and messy 16-month correction. Gold, silver and the mining stock had become the most hated asset. But actually, all that gold might have been doing was building an epic base and a launch pad to start the next leg higher within its bull market. Overall, we expect that Gold is breaking out after a short consolidation! The successful breakout above resistance between US$1,850 and US$1,875 should happen within the next few days or weeks. This should then lead to higher prices and gold will likely run towards US$1,950, at least. However, we are not sure yet whether this will also bring an attack towards the round number resistance at US$2,000. Given the fact, that gold usually starts to struggle somewhere in spring, the ongoing rally could still be just a counter-trend move within the larger ongoing consolidation/correction. Hence, we are short-term very bullish, mid-term neutral and long-term very bullish for gold. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 13th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
US 30 Is On A Slightly Low Level, Which Way Will GBPJPY Choose?

US 30 Is On A Slightly Low Level, Which Way Will GBPJPY Choose?

John Benjamin John Benjamin 14.02.2022 08:48
USDCHF to test resistance The US dollar rises as traders seek safe haven amid tensions in Ukraine. The pair is grinding up along a rising trendline from support at 0.9180. A series of higher lows suggests strong buying interest. A break above the intermediate resistance at 0.9275 may boost buyers’ confidence further. 0.9310 is the next hurdle and its breach would bring the greenback to the double top (0.9370) on the daily chart. On the downside, the trendline is the closest support, and then 0.9180 is a critical level to keep the short-term rally intact. GBPJPY tests demand zone The pound may find support from Britain’s upbeat GDP in Q4. A break above January’s high at 157.70 suggests that the bulls have reclaimed control of price action. The next challenging task is to push above last October’s peak at 158.20. This would resume the uptrend in the medium term. In the meantime, a combination of profit-taking and fresh selling is driving the price towards 155.20. Sentiment would remain steady as long as the sterling met bidders in this demand area. US 30 seeks support The Dow Jones 30 struggled as white-hot US inflation fanned fears of aggressive rate hikes. Nonetheless, a break above the 30-day moving average on the daily chart indicates improved market sentiment. An overbought RSI prompted momentum traders to exit. A fall below 34820 would suggest lingering hesitation among market participants and shake out weak hands. The bulls may see a pullback towards 34500 as a buying opportunity. The rebound may only resume if the price lifts offers around 35400.
Bullish momentum remains strong

Bullish momentum remains strong

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.02.2022 17:36
Even at the last important low (US$$1,750) on December 15th, 2021, the sentiment was still awful as the sector had become the most hated asset class. Now fast-forward, gold has been successfully breaking out of its multi month triangle and keeps sprinting higher. The bulls currently are bending the daily and weekly Bollinger Bands to the upside, and seasonality is still supportive.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Looking at the weekly chart, it appears that gold not only broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern, but also out of a large inverse head and shoulder pattern. It’s not a textbook head and shoulder, but worthwhile noting. A measured move projection could theoretically take gold towards US$2,125! However, the monthly Bollinger Band, sitting at around US$ 1,975, might be a much more realistic target for the ongoing move. As you might remember, the zone between US$1,950 to US$1,975 is very strong resistance. We would not rule out a short-lived overshoot towards US$,2000, though.Overall, the weekly chart is not yet overbought and looks bullish. Hence, the rally has very good chances to continue for a few more weeks.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.As expected, the breakout above US$1,840 to US$1,850 has unleashed enough energy to quickly push gold prices towards the round psychological number of US$1,900. Fortunately, the daily stochastic has transformed its overboughtness into the rare “embedded status”, where both signal lines are sitting above 80 for more than three days in a row. Hence, the uptrend is locked-in and shorting this market would be fighting the uptrend.Of course, given the uncertain and complex geopolitical situation, events can and likely will strongly influence gold over the coming days and weeks. Speaking from a technical point of you, any pullback towards the breakout zone around US$1,845 would be a buying opportunity. However, prices below US$1,875 would already be a surprise in the short-term. On the contrary, it’s much more likely that gold will continue its run to at least US$1,930 over the coming days.In summary, the daily chart is bullish. Especially the bullish embedded stochastic oscillator likely will not allow any larger pullback, but rather a consolidation around US$1,900. Watch those two signal lines. Only if one of them would be dropping below 80on a daily close, the bull run might be over!GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.GDX, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold & gold related mining stocks often stabilize your portfolio during uncertain times and do act as a hedge. While the stock market continued its dive due to the crisis in Ukraine and the potential interest rate turnaround in the US, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up more than 21.5% since its low in mid of December. Over the last two weeks, the leading gold mining stocks recorded some of their best days in the last 12 months. Last week, Barrick Gold ($GOLD) jumped up more than 7% due to good earnings, a dividend increase, and a new share repurchase program. Some smaller gold stocks like Sabina Gold & Silver ($SGSVF) went up even more (+15% Friday, 11th).Now that gold is on the rise, it’s time for the beaten down and undervalued mining stocks to catch up. Usually, it starts with the big senior produces like Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM) and Newmont Corporation ($NEM), then the juniors like for example Victoria Gold Corp. ($VITFF) join and finally, the explorer and developers literally explode higher.However, the GDX has nearly reached its downtrend line as well as the 38.2% retracement of the whole corrective wave since August 2020. Hence, the big miners are running into string resistance and might need to consolidate soon.At the same time, note, that silver has been lagging. Silver always lags most of the time, but in the final stage of sector wide rally it suddenly passes all the other metals and shots up nearly vertically. That also typically is the sign that the rally in the sector is coming to an end. Obviously, we have not yet seen any strong silver days. Therefore, silver actually confirms that the sector has more room and time to run higher!Conclusion: Bullish momentum remains strongOverall, gold continues to look promising here as the bullish momentum remains strong. Hence, Gold is probably on the way towards US$1,950 and US$1,975, with a slight chance for an overshot to US$2,000. But of course, given the rather overbought daily chart, the risk/reward is not that good anymore. Silver and many of the smaller mining stocks, however, might still offer a chance to play the ongoing rally over the next few weeks. Once gold tops out in spring, expect a big pullback. Maybe even back towards the higher trending 200-day moving average (currently at US$1,808) at some point in midsummer. But that is all somewhere in the future. For now, the bullish momentum remains strong.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 20th, 2022|Tags: $GDXJ, Barrick Gold, GDX, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, Newmont Corporation, precious metals, Reyna Gold, Sabina Gold & Silver, Silver, silver bull, US-Dollar, Victoria Gold|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
EURUSD Rallies, GBPUSD Moves Up A Little, USOIL Goes Back To "Normal" (?) Levels

EURUSD Rallies, GBPUSD Moves Up A Little, USOIL Goes Back To "Normal" (?) Levels

Jing Ren Jing Ren 10.03.2022 08:43
EURUSD bounces back The euro rallies on news that the EU may issue a joint bond to fund energy and defense. The pair found bids near May 2020’s lows (1.0810). An oversold RSI on the daily chart prompted sellers to take profit, easing the downward pressure. A rally above the immediate resistance at 1.0940 and a bullish MA cross may improve sentiment in the short term. However, buyers will need to clear the support-turned-resistance at 1.1160 before they could hope for a meaningful rebound. 1.0910 is the support in case of a pullback. GBPUSD inches higher The sterling claws back losses as risk appetite makes a timid return across the board. Following a three-month-long rebound on the daily chart, a lack of support at 1.3200 and a bearish MA cross shows strong selling pressure. A bounce-back above 1.3200 may only offer temporary relief as sellers potentially look to fade the rebound. 1.3350 is a key hurdle that sits along the 20-day moving average. 1.3080 is fresh support and its breach could trigger a new round of sell-off below the next daily support at 1.2880. USOIL breaks support WTI crude tumbled after the UAE said consider boosting production. The parabolic climb came to a halt at 129.00 and pushed the RSI into an extremely overbought condition on the daily chart. A bearish RSI divergence suggested a loss of momentum and foreshadowed a correction as traders would be wary of chasing the rally. A fall below 115.00 led buyers to bail out, triggering a wave of liquidation. 105.00 is the next support and a breakout could bring the price back to 95.00 near the 30-day moving average.
The Major Currency Pairs On The Forex Market And Their Move Ahead Of Important Decisions

Intraday Market Analysis – JPY Struggles For Bids

Jing Ren Jing Ren 29.03.2022 08:40
USDJPY seeks support The Japanese yen recouped some losses after a drop in February’s unemployment rate. The pair surged to August 2015’s high and the psychological level of 125.00. An overwhelmingly overbought RSI may cause a pullback if short-term buyers start to unwind their bets. As the market mood stays upbeat, trend followers could be waiting to jump in at a discount. 122.20 is the closest level if the greenback needs to gather support. A break above the current resistance would propel the pair to new highs above 127.00. AUDUSD hits major resistance The Australian dollar stalls as caution prevails ahead of major economic data. The rally slowed down at last October’s peak at 0.7550. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling weighs on the Aussie. The bulls may see a pullback as an opportunity to accumulate in hope of a new round of rally. 0.7400 from the latest bullish breakout would be key support should this happen. On the upside, an extended rally could propel the pair to last June’s highs around 0.7770 and pave the way for a reversal in the medium-term. US 100 to test major resistance Growth stocks rose amid a sell-off in the bond market. Short-term sentiment remains bullish after a series of higher lows which indicates sustained buying interest. The Nasdaq 100 is heading to the daily resistance at 15050. A bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the rally, foreshadowing a potential retracement. 14600 is the support and its breach may trigger a sell-off towards 14200 which sits at the base of the recent breakout. A close above the said hurdle may put the index back on track in the weeks to come.
CFD News: US30, Have bulls started a new leg higher?

CFD News: US30, Have bulls started a new leg higher?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 29.03.2022 10:26
As traders continue to watch the situation between Ukraine and Russia, we continue to see certain risk markets pull back losses seen on the outbreak of the conflict. The US30 is one of the indexes that have pulled together several solid weeks after setting lows in February. Since that low, we have seen just under 9% added back to the index after it hit its 32,215 low back in February. Oversold or the fact that the conflict may have been overdone in terms of selling or with both countries continuing to meet for talks, could be feeding the fightback. Let’s not sugarcoat it, this is a war, and there have been catastrophic repercussions on the Ukrainian people and the country due to the Russian invasion. Representatives from both countries are currently meeting in Turkey, and let’s hope they can find some common ground and bring an end to the fighting in Ukraine. Not that that will just fix the carnage that the country has gone through and bring back all the needless casualties seen since the start of the invasion. The US30’s fortunes might be intertwined with the talk in some aspects as if we see a peace agreement, and it is respected by the Russian government, this may continue to feed hopes of recovery. We can see the breakout this week that cleared 34,830 resistance. This has continued to confirm the overall V reversal pattern, and we’re looking for the breakout to maintain the idea we are seeing a new leg higher in the current trend. A failure strong as first thought. If the leg continues, we will be looking at 35,835 to show possible resistance if reached. Data wise, there are a few things traders will be watching this week. Today we have consumer confidence and Jolts job openings. Thursday, PCE price and index and Friday US employment data, including non-farm employment change. US30 D1 Chart The post CFD News: US30, Have bulls started a new leg higher? appeared first on Eightcap.
Intraday Market Analysis – CHF Bounces Back

Intraday Market Analysis – CHF Bounces Back

Jing Ren Jing Ren 12.04.2022 07:57
USDCHF hits resistance The Swiss franc rallies across the board as traders dump risk assets for safe haven ones amid uncertainty. The latest rebound came to a halt at 0.9370 from the late March sell-off. The RSI’s double top in the overbought zone prompted intraday buyers to take profit, weakening the upward momentum. A bullish close would lift offers to the recent peak at 0.9460, where strong selling pressure could be expected. A breakout may extend the rally to 0.9600. Otherwise, 0.9240 is the closest support to test the bulls’ resolve. EURGBP attempts rebound The sterling softened after Britain’s GDP fell short of expectations in February. The euro found support in the demand zone between 0.8300 and 0.8310, an important level from the daily chart. The ensuing break above 0.8360 flushed out some selling interests and could pave the way for a sustained bounce. 0.8400 is the next hurdle and its breach may propel the single currency to the previous high (0.8510). An overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback and the bulls may see it as an opportunity to join in. US 30 struggles for support The Dow Jones 30 turns south as US Treasury yields continue to climb. The index briefly found support over the 30-day moving average (34200). A bullish RSI divergence indicates a deceleration in the current sell-off. Nonetheless, the bulls’ struggle to push past 35000 suggests that short-term sentiment remains cautious. On the downside, a fall below 34200 could trigger a broader liquidation, causing an extended consolidation in the days to come. 33500 at the origin of the previous breakout would be the next support.
CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback

CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 28.04.2022 04:55
Looking at the US30 on the 8H we can see some signs that counter-rally is stalling. Price remains range-bound between 33,485 and 33,170. With inflation white-hot and the talk of recession and possible heavy rate hikes, could this be a pause before we see a new push lower by sellers? All three major US indices are showing similar patterns, but the US30 definitely looks the weaker of the three for now. After yesterday’s choppy end to the session that saw an 8H range of 602 points, price continues to sit midway at the moment with little direction. Price sits in a fast downtrend with one lower high, but this week buyers have started to put up some defence with the start of a consolidation starting to form between support and res 1. This may also be a pause before sellers try to get going again. Res 2 is another point of resistance holding for sellers currently and if we are to start thinking buyer recovery we would like to see both points beaten with a new higher low to show demand. If sellers are able to get the show back on track we would be looking for a break of support to show that they have beaten buyers for now. The market looks to be waiting on something to give it direction and that might just come later this week with US advanced GDP due at 8:30 EST today and US core PCE price index which is a primary inflation measure for the FED. With the current climate around inflation, this could be key data. It’s due out Friday at 8:30 EST. US30 8H Chart The post CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback appeared first on Eightcap.
Supported Euro Affects EUR/USD, Recovering New Zealand Dollar Duels With US Dollar (NZD/USD), Scared Investors And US 30 Performance | Orbex

Supported Euro Affects EUR/USD, Recovering New Zealand Dollar Duels With US Dollar (NZD/USD), Scared Investors And US 30 Performance | Orbex

Jing Ren Jing Ren 17.05.2022 09:14
EURUSD goes sideways The euro edged higher after an ECB official supported the idea of a stronger currency to combat inflation. The pair is bouncing off December 2017’s lows at 1.0350. The RSI’s oversold situation on both daily and hourly charts led some sellers to cover as a wave of profit-taking could help the euro snap back from this demand zone. The bias remains down unless the bulls lift the first hurdle (1.0530) from the latest sell-off. 1.0640 on the 30-day moving average is a major resistance to clear before a bullish reversal could happen. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM NZDUSD stays under pressure The New Zealand dollar recovers as weak data from China may trigger more policy support. The RSI’s double dip into the oversold territory shows an overextension. The sell-off has become such a crowded one-way trade and the kiwi could use some breathing room. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a slowdown in the downtrend but needs a breakout to confirm buying interest. 0.6380 is a fresh resistance and 0.6450 on the 20-day moving average a major obstacle. A drop below 0.6220 would further extend the kiwi’s losses. US 30 tests resistance The Dow Jones 30 struggles as investors still ponder a recession scenario. A break below the daily support at 32600 has put the bulls on the defensive. Bargain hunting may cause limited rebounds, but the lack of buying momentum means that the mood is still extremely cautious. 32600 has become a resistance and its breach could extend the recovery to 34000, where sell orders could be expected from trend followers. 31250 is the closest support and a breakout may send the index to the psychological level of 30000. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM