US labor market data

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD The price test of 1.0719, coinciding with the significant rise of the MACD line from zero, limited the upward potential of the pair. Even so, market players continue to buy in anticipation of further interest rate hikes despite inflation in the eurozone starting to slow down. Clearly, market players do not expect any changes in the European Central Bank's monetary policy.     The empty economic calendar today will push traders to focus on upcoming US labor market data, as growth in unemployment and disappointing non-farm payrolls will convince the Fed to continue its tight approach to monetary policy. Only a pause in the rate hike cycle will weaken dollar demand and lead to a further rise in EUR/USD.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0780 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0816. Growth could occur. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0754, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0780 and 1.0816.   For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0754 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0722. Pressure may return amid very good labor market statistics in the US. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0780, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0754 and 1.0722.       What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD he price test of 1.2480, coinciding with the significant rise of the MACD line from zero, limited the upward potential of the pair. Even so, market players continued to buy, ignoring weak manufacturing activity data in the UK.     The empty economic calendar today will convince traders to push GBP/USD higher, which could continue in the afternoon if the upcoming US labor market data show growth in the unemployment rate and a weaker increase in non-farm payrolls. Such a scenario will convince the Fed to continue its tight approach to monetary policy. Lately, the central bank expressed plans to pause its rate hike cycle. If this happens, dollar demand will decline, which will lead to a rise in the pair.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2544 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2592 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth could occur. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2517, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2544 and 1.2592.   For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2517 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2477. Pressure could continue amid very strong labor market data from the US. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2544, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2517 and 1.2477.       What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  

Yesterday, several entry signals were made. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to get a picture of what happened. I considered entering the market from the level of 1.2414. A fall and a false breakout generated a buy signal. The price rose by more than 50 pips. In the American session, the pair dropped after the publication of US labor market data, but the bulls still protected 1.2449. After another buy signal, the pair advanced by 65 pips. Short positions at 1.251 brought no desired result.     When to open long positions on GBP/USD In the UK, the manufacturing PMI kept contracting in May although at a slower pace than in April. The pair barely reacted to those results. At the same time, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the US triggered a mass sell-off of the greenback and boosted the pound. Today, GBP/USD will still be in demand. In the American session, data on the US labor market will be in focus. Therefore, buying at current highs will hardly be a good idea. Rather, positions should be opened when a bearish correction occurs.   If the bulls protect 1.2475 support and a false breakout follows, a buy signal will be generated with the target at 1.2543 resistance. An additional buy signal targeting 1.2576 will come after a breakout and consolidation above the mark on disappointing macro data in the US. The most distant target stands at 1.2607 where I will lock in profit. If the price goes toward 1.2506 and there is no bullish activity there, pressure on the pound will increase, and the bears will get a chance to stop yesterday's growth. In such a case, a sell signal will come after protecting 1.2475 and a false breakout. I will buy GBP/USD on a bounce from 1.2449, allowing a correction of 30-35 pips intraday.   When to open short positions on GBP/USD: After triggering a row of bearish Stop Losses yesterday, the bulls will likely build a new uptrend today. That is why bearish activity may only increase near 1.2543 resistance and after a false consolidation above this range. This will generate a sell signal and trigger a small correction to 1.2506 support. A breakout and an upside retest of this range will occur only if US macro data comes upbeat. GBP/USD will face pressure, producing a sell signal targeting 1.2475. The most distant target is still seen at a low of 1.2449 where I will lock in profits.   If GBP/USD goes up and there is no activity at 1.2543, the bull market will continue. I will open short positions after a test of 1.2576 resistance. A false breakout will create a sell entry point. If there is no bearish activity there either, I will sell GBP/USD on a bounce from a high of 1.2607, allowing a bearish correction of 30-35 pips intraday.     Commitments of Traders: The COT report for May 23 shows a decrease in both long and short positions. Last week, the pound was bearish. However, with a drop in both longs and shorts, a shift in trading powers seems minimal. Traders had to close positions fearing the US debt ceiling deal would not be reached. Moreover, recession risks were still weighing on them. They were also concerned about the Bank of England's monetary policy stance. The regulator said it might pause tightening although inflationary pressures in the UK were still high. According to the latest COT report, short non-commercial positions dropped by 7,181 to 57,614, and long non-commercial positions decreased by 8,185 to 69,203. The non-commercial net position fell to 11,059 from 12,593 a week earlier. The weekly price dropped to 1.2425 from 1.2495.       Indicators' signals: Moving averages: Trading is carried out above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a bullish continuation.     Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 (1-hour) chart and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands Support stands at 1.2475, in line with the lower band. Indicators: Moving average (MA) determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Colored yellow on the chart. Moving average (MA) determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Colored green on the chart. Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD). Fast EMA 12. Slow EMA 26. SMA 9. Bollinger Bands. Period 20 Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions are the total long position of non-commercial traders. Non-commercial short positions are the total short position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.  

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading USD/JPY Further growth became limited because the test of 149.04 coincided with the sharp rise of the MACD line from zero. The second test, on the other hand, took place when the MACD line returned from the overbought area, providing a signal to sell. This led to a price decrease of over 50 pips. The Bank of Japan's intervention holds significant importance for the currency market. But for today, the pair's decline will be influenced by data from the US labor market, where unemployment figures will decrease to 3.7%. A sharp reduction in the number of new jobs in September could also weaken dollar, leading to an active sale of USD/JPY. Otherwise, if the data surpass forecasts even by a small margin, the pair will continue to rise, once again reaching 150 yen per dollar. Data on average hourly earnings in the US could also influence market sentiment, unlike the interview with FOMC member Christopher Waller.   For long positions: Buy when the price hits 149.04 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 150.03. Growth will only be possible amid very strong data from the US labor market, continuing the bullish trend. When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Also consider buying USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 148.65, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 149.04 and 150.03. For short positions: Sell when the price reaches 148.65 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 147.77. Pressure will return in the event of a sharp reduction in jobs in the US and weak statistics. When selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Also consider selling USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 149.04, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 148.65 and 147.77.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy USD/JPY Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell USD/JPY Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD Further decline became limited because the test of 1.0503 coincided with the sharp drop of the MACD line from zero. No economic data for the eurozone will affect market volatility ahead of important labor market reports, except for the data on industrial orders in Germany, trade balance in Italy, and retail trade volume in France. However, they will unlikely have much impact on the market.   For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0552 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0595. Growth will occur amid weak US labor market data. Note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or rising from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0524, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0552 and 1.0595. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0524 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0475. Pressure may return, but they will not occur in the morning. Note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or dropping down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0552, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0524 and 1.0475.     Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market