us dollar to japanese yen

Summary:

  • The ECB turning hawkish is causing the Euro to strengthen.
  • Disappointing PMI data caused the GBP to weaken.
  • Hawkish SNB offers CHF support.

Read next: ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex! 

Euro trumps US Dollar

Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals, which means investors are confident in the Euro. The strengthening of the Euro comes after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Christine Lagarde confirmed market expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates in July.

The hawkish sentiment of the ECB has instilled investor confidence in the Euro, despite the continuing hawkish Fed, investors are still turning to the Euro due to concerns around the US economy falling into a recession.

Hawkish ECB Bodes Well For EUR/USD, UK PMI Data Disappoints (EUR/GBP), Hawkish SNB Offers Swiss Franc Still Support (USD/CHF), AUD/JPY - Good Morning Forex! - 1 EUR/USD Price Chart

Pound Sterling Weakens after PMI data release

The Release of PMI data showed that the UK economy was close

Fluctuations Of Forex Pairs! US Dollar's Strength Against Japanese Yen Performance (USD/JPY), Jason Sen Comments On Euro To Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY) And NZD/JPY Forex Rate

Fluctuations Of Forex Pairs! US Dollar's Strength Against Japanese Yen Performance (USD/JPY), Jason Sen Comments On Euro To Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY) And NZD/JPY Forex Rate

Jason Sen Jason Sen 25.04.2022 10:11
USDJPY running out of steam in severely overbought conditions as predicted but there is no sell signal yet so I cannot suggest shorts. A break above 129.50 however targets 129.90/95 then 130.25/35, perhaps as far as 130.75/85. First support again at 127.80/70. Expect strong support at 127.10/126.90. Longs need stops below 126.70. A break lower can target 126.00. EURJPY no sell signal yet despite overbought conditions but less than positive candles for the last 3 days probably signal a consolidation ahead. Having held the next target of 139.95/99 perfectly, if we do continue higher look for 140.40/50 & 140.85/95. Minor support at 138.70/50 but below 138.30 can target 137.70/50. ON further losses look for 137.20/10 with best support at 136.50/30 this week. Longs need stops below 136.10. Read next (By Jason Sen): Can (XAUUSD) Gold Price Plunge To $1800!? Silver Price (XAGUSD) To Decrease As Well? | FXMAG.COM NZDJPY holding below 8540 is a sell signal for today targeting 8500 & perhaps as far as strong support at 8450/30. Longs need stops below 8410. First resistance at 8545/65. Shorts need stops above 8485. EURUSD holds 37 YEAR TREND LINE SUPPORT AT 1.0760/20. Longs need stops below 1.0670. Obviously there is nothing more important than this level this week. Again we must beat 1.0840/20 to target 1.0920/40. A break above 1.0960 is a buy signal targeting 1.1030/50. USDCAD messy as we trade sideways for 9 months. We are back above the February lows & the sideways 100 & 200 day moving averages. Further gains test the strongest resistance for this week at 500 day & 100 week moving average at 1.2775/85. Shorts need stops above 1.2800. A break higher should be a medium term buy signal. Read next (By Jason Sen): Euro To US Dollar (EUR To USD): That's An Amazing USD Performance, Will USDCAD (Canadian Dollar) Stay Close? USDJPY (Japanese Yen) Beats Records! | FXMAG.COM First support at 1.2660/40. Longs need stops below 1.2620 GBPCAD support at the April low of 1.6293/81 held again. Strong resistance at 1.6400/20. Shorts need stops above 1.6450. A break higher is a buy signal initially targeting 1.6530/50. A break below 1.6265 is a sell signal. Look for 1.6190/80. Please email me if you need this report updated or Whatsapp: +66971910019 – To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk
Steady BoE Rate Expectations Amid Empty Event Calendar in the UK

What Bank of Japan Is Going To Do? Solid USD Against Japanese Yen, SEK (Swedish Krone) To Be Supported By Riksbank Shortly?

John Hardy John Hardy 27.04.2022 14:15
Summary:  The Japanese government is rolling out a large fiscal package to ease cost-of-living pressures at a time when inflation in Japan supposedly remains muted. This is entirely out of step with the Bank of Japan doubling down on its accommodative policy mix, which has driven the Japanese yen sharply weaker this year. Will the Bank of Japan be forced to capitulate tonight? FX Trading focus: Bank of Japan meeting tonight as pressure on policy mix mounts, EUR and GBP in for fresh pressure on Russian NatGas threats, AUD and SEK ahead of Riksbank The JPY has found a bit of support this week on the consolidation in global bond yields. Yesterday saw a strong US 2-year Treasury auction that helped take yields lower at the front end of the curve as well, with risk-off finally strong enough in the background to see US treasuries serving as a safe haven. The falling yields factor by itself brings the JPY some relief, as has the Chinese decision to allow a so-far modest revaluation of its currency lower that will bring more relative support to the JPY if that move is extended. But to really reset the JPY level back higher after its runs to multi-decade lows in real-effective inflation-adjusted terms, we will need to see a policy change from the BoJ. The BoJ meets tonight, and while very few are expecting a shift, it wouldn’t take much of a hint to suggest the pressure on the BoJ via the weakening currency is becoming too strong to ignore. Even a hint that the Bank is mulling tightening without specifics could be enough to trigger a JPY rally, but spelling out that the bank is willing to tinker with its yield cap policy on 10-year JGB’s would likely spark an even sharper move. Meanwhile, the political pressure has to be mounting sharply as well: consider that overnight the Japanese government has passed a near JPY 6.2 trillion (approx. $50 billion) stimulus package aimed at offsetting cost-of-living pressures that are sorely felt by the most vulnerable in Japan. This at a time when inflation supposedly remains unsatisfactorily low. For whom the inflation bell tolls is an critical question both in Japan and globally as we have to consider that these cost of living pressures that may only measure in the mid- to high single digits nationally could weigh 20% or more for the consumption basket at the lower end of the income spectrum, in terms of rent, heating, food, etc. It’s an explosive cocktail for politicians and Japan is set for important lower house elections in July. The BoJ may not move tonight, but it can’t remain an immovable object in a rapidly moving world forever. Keep in mind that Japan is on holiday Friday and out for much of next week, so this could aggravate the volatility if the BoJ does deliver any new guidance or policy twists. Chart: USDJPY Watching the USDJPY pair and JPY crosses closely tonight over the Bank of Japan meeting for the reasons outlined above. Technically, the pair seems to have shied away from a test of the 130.00 level, while on the downside, any BoJ policy surprise could deliver tremendous intraday volatility – easily 125.00 or lower, given that the recent break level to the upside was all the way down at 116.35. JPY traders should tread carefully, considering long volatility plays in the options market if wanting to express a short-term view. JPY cross action may prove higher beta than the reaction in USDJPY itself. As well, Japan will be out on holiday over next week during the May 4 FOMC meeting so liquidity may prove thinner than usual. If we see Kuroda-san doubling down on the existing policy and a fresh surge in global yields, the uptrend could be reinvigorated for a try toward 135.00. It’s a pivotal week for USDJPY either way, in all likelihood. Source: Saxo Group Fresh euro woes. The euro touched new five-year lows versus the US dollar today, in part on general risk off, but perhaps even more so after Russia used Poland and Bulgaria as guinea pigs in its threat to cut off supplies of natural gas for importers unwilling to pay for the gas in rubles. Poland saw the writing on the wall on Russian gas a long time ago and had moved to reduce its reliance before the war in Ukraine and has considerable coal-based power it can mobilize to cover some  of the shortfall, so the impact on the zloty is considerable, but need not spin out of control. Alas, Germany is the chief focus as a full shutdown would crater German economic growth on the need to ration supplies. Meanwhile, ECB member Kazaks said yesterday he is in favour of a July ECB hike – looks like consensus is gelling on that timing for lift-off. The UK does not import Russian gas, but is under as much pressure as any other European country on the impact of any Russian supply disruptions because it is connected to the continent’s gas network and suffers the price rises together with the continental countries. An excellent commentary from Bloomberg’s Marcus Ashworth lays out the pressures on the UK economy here as it faces a “trilemma of high inflation, slowing growth and rising taxes”, with a collapsing currency possibly forcing the Bank of England to hike rates more than it would otherwise do (watching EURGBP as much as GBPUSD for the relative pressure on the UK as I would have already expected sterling to underperform more there than it has). GBPUSD looks set for a test of 1.2000 and possibly more to the downside if we are set for a significant deleveraging event across risky assets here. The Aussie tried to get a boost on news overnight that Chinese leader Xi Jinping called for an “all out” infrastructure building push to spark economic growth, but there are few details. As well, short Australian yields touched new cycle highs while yields elsewhere consolidated after the Q1 Australian CPI report came in far hotter than expected at 5.1% YoY vs. 4.6% expected and the core “trimmed mean” was out at 3.7% YoY vs. 3.4% expected. This has strongly raised the odds of a rate hike at the RBA meeting next Tuesday to above 70%. The solid drop in the trade-weighted AUD in recent days after it had spiked to near a 5-year high has likely helped the RBA to go ahead and just get started already. The Riksbank is widely expected to deliver its first rate hike since moving away from NIRP last year, with a 25 basis point move. Watch the rate guidance after Governor Ingves recently failed to push back against the market pricing a greater than 2% policy rate by the beginning of 2024 – while the February Riksbank meeting still forecast lift-off not to arrive until 2024! I like fading EURSEK upside, but the risk deleveraging here makes this hazardous tactically. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.Note especially the enormous positive momentum shift in the JPY head of tonight’s BoJ meeting – will BoJ deliver something that spikes momentum further or back to the downtrend? The USD uptrend reading of 8 is getting into extreme territory, but won’t necessarily calm if risk deleveraging continues/accelerates. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.The “hottest” market in a long while, as can be seen in all of the extreme ATR readings (the dark orange color indicates we are in the top decile of volatility in ATR over last 1000 trading days). Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – US Mar. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1400 – US Mar. Pending Home Sales 1600 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 2100 – New Zealand RBNZ deputy Hawkesby to speak 2230 – Canada Bank of Canada Governor Macklem to speak in Senate testimony 2350 – Japan Mar. Industrial Production 0100 – New Zealand Apr. ANZ Business Confidence survey 0130 – Australia Q1 Export / Import Prices
Energy and Metals Decline, Wheat Rallies Amid Disappointing Chinese Growth

Hawkish ECB Bodes Well For The Euro, UK PMI Data Disappoints (EUR/GBP), Hawkish SNB Offers Swiss Franc Still Support (USD/CHF), AUD/JPY - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.05.2022 13:23
Summary: The ECB turning hawkish is causing the Euro to strengthen. Disappointing PMI data caused the GBP to weaken. Hawkish SNB offers CHF support. Read next: ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!  Euro trumps US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals, which means investors are confident in the Euro. The strengthening of the Euro comes after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Christine Lagarde confirmed market expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates in July. The hawkish sentiment of the ECB has instilled investor confidence in the Euro, despite the continuing hawkish Fed, investors are still turning to the Euro due to concerns around the US economy falling into a recession. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling Weakens after PMI data release The Release of PMI data showed that the UK economy was close to contracting in May, the results came in well below expectations, a figure that is out of the ordinary. The Pound Sterling weakened based on this news and JP Morgan has flagged the UK economy as the “poster child” for stagflation. The market sentiment for the EUR/GBP currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. EUR/GBP Price Chart Swiss Franc continues to trump US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting a bearish sentiment. Late last week and this week the Swiss Franc began strengthening against the US Dollar, this comes in the wake of both the concerns around the slowing US economy and in conjunction the hawkish attitude from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). USD/CHF Price Chart AUD/JPY currency pair Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. This currency pair has experienced a lot of volatility over the past week. In addition there is a temporary pause in the growth of the JPY as investors are starting to be less weary about taking on some risk. AUD/JPY Price Chart Read next: (DJIA) Dow Jones Index Rising, Investors Confidence In The Euro Is Looking Bullish As ECB Confirm Interest Rate Increases  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com

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