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US small business optimism held steady in April after three consecutive falls. Nonetheless, businesses retain the ability to pass higher costs onto their customers and this will keep inflation sticky. Ongoing supply chain issues and rising fuel costs mean 2% inflation is a distant prospect Business sentiment holds steady, but firms still want to hire The recent US data has been mixed and that has helped to fuel fears that the economy could experience a marked slowdown, especially with the Federal Reserve firmly focused on inflation and hiking interest rates. Dollar strength is acting as a further headwind to growth by making US exports less price competitive in what is already a challenging external demand environment for companies. In this regard this morning’s National Federation of Independent Business survey for April was marginally better than expected at the headline level with optimism holding steady versus expectations of a fourth consecutive monthly drop. Nonetheless it is still the weakest level since April 2020 in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic striking. The details show a slight improvement in the proportion of small businesses expecting higher sales, but there was a little more pessimism on the outlook for the economy and whether it was a good time to expand. Set against this softer environment, firms are still struggling with worker shortages and are desperate to hire. The NFIB released the labour components last Thursday, which a net 46% having raised worker compensation during the past 3 months and 27% expecting to do so further. Inflation pressures show no sign of moderating Looking to tomorrow's inflation data the NFIB report shows a net 70% of companies raised their selling prices in the past 3 month - down from last month's 72% balance, but this is still the second highest reading in the survey's 47-year history. Moreover, a net 46% of firms plan to raise their prices further over the next three months (down from 50%, but this is still the 6th highest reading in the survey's history). This reinforces the message the despite concerns about where the economy is heading, businesses continue to have pricing power and highlights the breadth of inflation pressures in the economy. The ability to raise prices is seen across all sectors and all sizes of businesses NFIB price indicators show no sign of a turn in inflation Source: Macrobond, ING Inflation may be peaking, but 2% is a long way away Tomorrow's CPI report will probably show that inflation has passed the peak, due largely to lower used car prices, but in the absence of major improvements in supply chains and geopolitical tensions, the descent to the 2% target will be very slow and may not be achieved until the very end of 2023. However, with national gasoline prices hitting a new all-time high yesterday that will come as little comfort to most households. TagsUS Inflation Federal Reserve Business optimism   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

US inflation has slowed marginally in April thanks to a fall in used car prices and gasoline. Fed rate hikes will bring demand into better balance with supply, but in the absence of major improvements in supply chains, labour shortages and geopolitical tensions the descent back to the 2% target will be slow In this article Inflation finally slows Past the peak? Housing will make inflation especially sticky Fed has a lot more work to do Rental prices continue to remain elevated 8.3% Annual rate of inflation for April 2022   Inflation finally slows In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic amid plunging energy, air fare and hotel prices, inflation bottomed at 0.1% year-on-year in May 2020 and has been on a rapid climbed to 8.5% ever since. Today though, the annual rate of US consumer price inflation has slowed from 8.5% in March to 8.3% in April. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices slowed marginally more to stand at 6.2% versus 6.5% in March. While this was in line with our forecasts, the market had been looking for a larger moderation with consensus forecasts of 8.1% for headline CPI and 6.0% for core. The details show energy prices fell 2.7% month-on-month on lower gasoline costs, but this will be fully reversed next month given gasoline is back at all-time highs. Used car prices fell 0.4% MoM, not as much as hoped given the Mannheim car auction data, while apparel fell 0.8% after a strong series of price hikes. Everything else was firm though with food prices rising 0.9% MoM, new vehicles up 1.1% and primary rents (0.6% MoM) and owners' equivalent rent up 0.5% MoM. Airline fares jumped another 18.6% MoM! The chart below shows the contributions and clearly shows there is a moderation in core goods prices (orange bars), but this is being offset to a large extent by the service sector (yellow). Contributions to annual US inflation Source: Macrobond, ING Past the peak? We think that March 2022 will have marked the peak for annual inflation. Mannheim used car auction prices are down 6.4% over the past three months so used vehicle prices should fall further and they have quite a heavy weight of 4.1% of the total basket of goods and services within CPI. The shift in consumer demand from goods, whose availability has been significantly impacted by supply chain issues, towards services should also contribute to a gradual moderation in the rate of inflation. Nonetheless, we remain nervous about the impact from gasoline and the growing price pressures within services. Moreover, substantial declines in the annual rate of inflation are unlikely to materialise until there are significant improvements in geopolitical tensions (that would get energy prices lower), supply chain strains and labour market shortages. Unfortunately, there is little sign of any of this happening anytime soon – The Russia-Ukraine conflict shows no end in sight, Chinese lockdowns will continue to impact the global economy while last Friday’s jobs report showed a decline in the labour force participation rate leaving the economy with 1.9 job vacancies for every unemployed person in America. At the moment consumer demand is firm and businesses have pricing power, meaning that they can pass higher costs onto their customers. This was highlighted by yesterday’s National Federation of Independent Businesses survey reporting that a net 70% of small businesses raised prices over the past three months, with a net 46% expecting to raise prices further. We haven’t seen this sort of pricing power for the small business sector before and we doubt it is any weaker for larger firms. NFIB survey shows firms can continue to pass higher costs onto customers Source: Macrobond, ING Housing will make inflation especially sticky Furthermore, the housing market remains red hot and this feeds through into primary rents and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) components of inflation with a lag of around 12-18 months. Rent contracts are typically only changed once a year when your contract is renewed so it takes time to feed through while OER is a based on a survey question for what you would rent the house you own out for. Homeowners may not necessarily closely follow the month-to-month changes in the housing market so there is a delayed response. As the chart below shows, the housing components, accounting for more than 30% of the CPI basket, are not likely to turn lower soon. No reason to expect an imminent turn in rent components Source: Macrobond, ING Fed has a lot more work to do This situation intensifies the pressure on the Fed to hike interest rates. The central bank wants to take some of the heat out of the economy and bring demand back into better balance with the supply capacity of the US economy. This potentially means aggressive rate hikes and the risks of a marked slowdown/recession. This message was re-affirmed by several officials over the past couple of days and we look for 50bp rate hikes at the upcoming June, July and September FOMC meetings. With the Fed running down its balance sheet we expect the Fed to revert back to 25bp from November onwards with the target rate peaking at 3.25% in early 2023. Even with this Fed action and hopefully some improvements in the supply side story we have doubts that CPI will get back to 2% target before the end of 2023. TagsUS Recession Inflation Federal Reserve   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary:  The larger than expected April U.S. CPI and core CPI reversed the attempt of the equity market to rebound and brought major U.S. equity indices firmly back onto their down trends. The surprising strength in services is particularly worrying and the money market is pricing in 143 bp hikes (i.e. almost three 50 bp hikes) in the next three FOMC meetings. What’s happening in markets? What spooked markets overnight was US inflation rose more than expected, which gives the Fed more ammunition to rise rates (more than they mapped out). Rising rates will cause further carnage, as when rates rise, bond yields tend to rise, which may trigger the US 10-year bond yield, to rise back over 3%,  (which is a better yield than the Nasdaq and S&P500 combined – just think about that for a second). As such the Nasdaq (with an average dividend yield of 0.9%) continued to fall and lost 3.2%. The Tech heavy index is down 28% from its high, and the technical indicators suggest it will likely continue to fall on a weekly and monthly basis, which supports our bearish fundamental view. The S&P500 lost 1.7% on Wednesday, (it has an average dividend yield of 1.66%). The U.S. treasury yield curve flattened 13 bps since yesterday’s CPI release.  The 10-year yield fell 10 bps to 2.89% while the 2-year yield rose 3 bps to 2.64%. It is worthwhile to note that the 10-year yield has fallen 30 bps in just three days from its May 9 high of 3.20%.  The treasury market is sending signals of investors being worried about a sharper slow-down in the U.S. economy.  In Australia, the Aussie share market fell 1% and hit a support level 6,991 points, but energy companies hit new highs. If the ASX200 falls further bellow this level, it could fall 2.2% to the next support (at 6,837 points). The technical indicators, suggest this could occur, with the MACD and RSI suggesting a weekly and monthly could pull back. We ideally need to see better than expected news to break the cycle. All in all though, it’s worthwhile continuing to back those stocks that are outperforming and are likely to outperform this trajectory, with rising cashflow and earnings growth. Just take a look at today’s best performing stocks as an example. In Energy there is Ampol (ALD) up 3.5% with its shares hitting a 2-year high, and Viva Energy (VEA) up 3% to its highest level since 2019. China and Hong Kong equity markets rebounded from their lows. After a weak opening, stocks traded in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen rebounded from their lows.  Hang Seng Index (HSI.I) was down  1% and CSI300 (000300.I) recouped all its early loss to close the morning session flat.  Infrastructure related A share, in particular county seat modernization names rallied.  Sunac China, China’s 4th largest property developer, failed to make a coupon payment of a dollar bond.  The news pushed down the shares of other Chinese developers traded in Hong Kong. Asia stocks follow Wall Street down. Japan’s Nikkei (NI225.I) was down 1% in the Asian morning following US CPI release overnight and the slide in US indices overnight. Steel makers like Japan Steel (5631) and Kobe Steel (5406) surged in a big way after earnings results and profit outlook was better than expected. Singapore’s STI Index (ES3) was also in the red. Singtel (Z74) was up over 1% leading on the index as it broadened its 5G network to underground metro line. Chinese electric car maker Nio (NIO) is going to start trading on the Singapore stock exchange form May 20. FX range trading continues. The USD had a hard time reacting to the US inflation print, suggesting range trading patterns may continue for now. While USDJPY slipped below 130 on lower real yields, EUR was still unable to overcome inflation and growth worries even with Lagarde hinting at a rate hike for July on stickier inflation, it dipped slightly to remain above 1.05 support. AUDUSD’s move above 0.7000 was not sustained and NZDUSD returned to sub-0.6300. GBPUSD is making a steadier move below 1.2300 ahead of UK GDP release. What to consider? US inflation may have peaked but the descent will be slow and painful. April U.S. CPI came at 8.3% YoY.  Core CPI, which excludes food & energy,  was 6.2% higher from a year ago.  Reiterating what we said in this piece, while headline inflation may be showing signs of peaking as base effects turn, it is likely to stay at these elevated levels. It was important to note that the 0.6% monthly increase of Core CPI  has brought inflation back to the uncomfortably high 0.5%-0.6% range from October 2021 to February 2022, after a temporary moderation in March.  Another worrying sign was the +0.7% core service price, which was the highest since 1990. Regular rents and owner-equivalent rents rose faster than expected and prices of reopening related spending, such as airfares and hotel lodging rose sharply. The US consumer remains very strong, which gives pricing power to companies. Services inflation will also broaden further, suggesting we are in for a higher-for-longer mode. Take into the mix, a prolonged war, sustained disruptions from China and still-tight labor market. This means Fed’s hawkish rhetoric is set to stay. The money market has moved towards pricing in a 50bp hike in the Sept FOMC on top of the two 50bp moves anticipated for June and July. Oil bulls pin their ears back: Both the Saudi oil Chief and UAE have warned that all energy sectors are running out of capacity, which supports our view that the oil price will hit higher levels over the longer term and also once China is out of lockdown. That being said, Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO) has strengthened regardless, along with many other oil companies, as their cashflows are rising at record paces. ARAMCO has now overtaken Apple as the world’s most valuable company. As we have been saying for some time now, it’s wise to consider revisiting oil stocks and oil ETFs. For instance, the ETF OOO that tracks the oil price, looks like it could break above a key trigger level and re-enter another uptrend, so that’s worth consideration. Also have a look at your favorite large oil stocks with rising earnings growth. Malaysia’s rate hike will be a signal for the region. Bank Negara Malaysia started the rate hike cycle yesterday as we had expected, turning away from its patient stance in April. This comes on the back of a similar rate increase decision from the Reserve Bank of India last week in an out-of-cycle meeting. Ringgit interest rate swaps are now pricing in over 75-basis points of rate hikes over the next 6 months. This similar surge in hawkish pricing is being seen across emerging Asia, suggesting more pain for EM bonds. Potential trading ides that could be worth your consideration? US dollar and US dollar ETFs move higher. As mentioned last week the USD dollar is supported higher along with US dollar ETFS. The Invesco USD Index Bullish Fund ETF closed at a brand new record high overnight. BetaShares USD ETF is also hitting higher levels and looks like. As previously mentioned, also as our head of FX Strategy also said, we are bullish on the USD, as higher volatility and bond yield are expected. This supports the USD and USD ETFs. BTC s in a bearish long term downtrend pressured by long term yield rising. For investors it could be worth considering shorting Bitcoin given rates are likely to continue to rise for now. Buy USDHKD 12-month forward. HKD interest rates are set to rise towards or even go above those of the USD as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) withdraw HKD liquidity in its move to buy HKD against USD.  As the USDHKD spot rate touches 7.85, which is the weak-side convertibility undertaking of the HKMA, the HKMA intervened by buying HKD versus the dollar this morning.  Given the strength of the US dollar and the weak economic sentiment in Hong Kong and the mainland, it is likely that the HKMA will have to continue to intervene and withdraw HKD liquidity further.  Given the ample ammunition that the HKMA has in defending HKD’s Linked-exchange Rate Regime, investors who are interested in betting on persistent weakness in the HKD would be better off to take a long position of USDHKD 12-month forward (currently at around 7.83) which can go up as HKD interest rate rise even when the spot being capped at 7.85.  Key economic releases this week: Thursday: India April CPI, US April PPI Friday: US Univ of Michigan sentiment, US import price index   Key earnings release this week: Thursday: Verbund, KBC Group, Brookfield, Fortum, Siemens, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, Atlantia, Snam, NTT, SoftBank Group, Aegon, Naturgy Energy, Motorola Solutions Friday: Deutsche Telekom, KDDI, Honda Motor, Alibaba   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.  Source: Saxo Bank

The euro has fallen close to the 1.04 level, which has held since January 2017. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0429, down 0.81% on the day. ECB hints at a rate hike in Q3 After years of monetary easing which was fueled by low inflation levels, the ECB is slowly but surely switching gears and talking openly about a rate hike. It wasn’t long ago that ECB President Christine Lagarde was dismissing high CPI numbers as “transitory” and saying that the ECB would remain out of sync with the Fed and its tighter policy. Lagarde has been forced to change her tune, however, as eurozone inflation has soared, hitting 7.5%. Germany’s inflation rate, released today, rose to 7.4%, an all-time high for a second successive month (7.3% prior). Eurozone inflation is being driven by high energy and food prices, both of which are largely due to the war in Ukraine. With no end to the conflict on the horizon, inflation could climb even higher, putting pressure on the ECB to start tightening policy. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Lagarde said on Wednesday that the ECB will end asset purchases in Q3 and follow with a rate hike “some time later”. Other ECB members have been less vague and are calling for a rate hike in July. There is a debate within the ECB whether to raise rates by 0.50%, which would bring the deposit rate to zero, or deliver a modest 0.25% increase. The ECB meeting in June should give the markets a better idea as to whether the July meeting will be live. US inflation dips, but less than expected US inflation slowed in April, but still came in stronger than expected. CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, higher than the consensus of 8.1%. This slowdown was not enough for the markets to price in “peak-US inflation”, and the dollar managed to hold its own against the major currencies. The Fed’s hawkish stance appears justified after the inflation release, as the markets are digesting the fact that if US inflation is easing, it will be at a slow pace. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100.  EUR/USD Technical 1.0557 remains a weak resistance line, followed by resistance at 1.0632 There is support at 1.0473 and 1.0398 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

As professional traders, we spend a lot of resources determining whether we are in a bull-up market or a bear-down market. The follow-up to this is our additional efforts in finding the right places to buy or sell in either of these scenarios. As traders, we also have different styles or time frames that we trade. For instance, longer-term trend traders may utilize the daily, weekly, or even monthly charts. In comparison, shorter-term swing traders may utilize the 4-hour or 1-hour charts. Much emphasis and resources are committed to these efforts. However, we have learned that going to cash or having a cash position is just as important, if not more important, than having an actual position in the market. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The beautiful thing about trading is that the trader is in control. We do our research, and then after weighing the evidence, we have the edge in that we have complete flexibility in determining whether we buy, sell, or do nothing. Cash position vs Invested in the Markets Taking a position and making +20, +30, or +40% is great. But going to cash and avoiding a -20, -30, or -40% drawdown is just as important. We could even say that having the ability to go to cash is even more important as it protects our attitude and our health. There is nothing enjoyable about worrying about a position 24-hours a day, 7-days a week. A trader should ask themselves: Is holding onto this position worth the stress and worry about whether the market is going to rally; or will the market give me back a small portion of my hard money losses; or will the bottom completely fall out of the market which will destroy my account? Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Age is a defining factor in answering this question. Depending on our age, do we have the time or the energy to make back losses if the unthinkable happens? Successful traders have learned the hard way that retreating (going to cash) may be the best option as you live to fight another day. CARVANA -91% Carvana CVNA NYSE is the perfect example of the bottom falling out unexpectedly. The rallies were short-lived, ranging from 4-to 14 days. After CVNA had dropped about -25%, it only rallied back about 14-days before it started a steep but steady decline. CVNA is a textbook example of the importance of accepting a loss and going to cash. As technical traders, we exclusively follow price. This too is an important concept to grasp. Following and trading price simply means that the market tells the trader what to do and not the other way around. Being one with price will deposit money into your trading account. Fighting price will withdraw money out of your trading account. The market (or price) does not care what a trader’s opinion or bias is. Managing and protecting our hard-earned capital is our individual responsibility and should be the top priority. CARVANA CO. • CVNA • NYSE • DAILY US DOLLAR - A STRONG BUY If a trader doesn’t trade currencies, why should they even care about what is happening to the USD? Think about the world economy. Whether a stock, ETF, bond, or commodity, everything is affected by the currency it is traded in. Currency is part of the fundamental make-up of each market. Tracking and understanding global money flows provides us with the big picture.Armed with that information, a trader can make better decisions about the markets they trade or how they manage their cash position. In other terms: risk-on, risk-off, trade-on, trade-off, capital invested, capital not-invested, etc. The US Dollar continues to attract capital from investors all over the world. But could this be a double-edged sword for US stocks? As capital flocks to the USD, this, in turn, hurts US multinationals as they need to convert their weak foreign currency profits back into USD. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. The USD safe-haven trade may eventually trigger a broad and deep selloff in US stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen, corporate profits for US multinationals will shrink or disappear. US Multinational $1 Billion Revenue Example: $1 billion in revenue-generating a 15% net profit with a net neutral 0% currency translation equals a $150 million profit. $1 billion in revenue-generating a 15% net profit with a negative -15% unfavorable currency translation expense equals a $0 profit! In addition, the impact of inflation on the global consumer will lead to a pullback in consumer spending which will further reduce corporate revenues and profits. Combining the global currency dislocation and the economic cool off will bring on a global recession. WISDOM TREE BLOOMBERG • U.S. DOLLAR BULLISH FUND ETF • USDU • ARCA • DAILY RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAPS -29.96% The Russell 2000 stock index is considered the bellwether of the US economy. The index measures the performance of 2,000 smaller companies whose focus is on the US market. Tracking this index gives us a broad overview of the health of the overall stock market. Since bottoming in March of 2020, the IWM has more than doubled. But in November 2021, the IWM put in its final top. Upon completing and then breaking out of a distribution wedge, the IWM is now solidly in a bear market. Knowing this information tells us that we should seriously consider we are in a period of risk-off, no-trade, and cash as a position. For experienced traders, they may consider buying non-leveraged inverse index ETFs on days when the market has a sharp spike rally up. ISHARES • RUSSELL 2000 ETF • IWM • ARCA • DAILY LEARN FROM OUR TEAM OF SEASONED TRADERS In today's market environment, it's imperative to assess your trading plan, portfolio holdings, and cash reserves. Experienced traders know what their downside risk is and adapt as necessary. Successful traders manage risk by utilizing stop-loss orders, rebalancing existing positions, reducing portfolio holdings, liquidating investments, and moving into cash. Successfully managing our drawdowns ensures our trading success. The larger the loss, the more difficult it will be to make up. Consider the following: A loss of 10% requires an 11% gain to recover A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover A 60% loss requires an even more daunting 150% gain to simply return to break even. Recovery time also varies significantly depending upon the magnitude of the drawdown. A 10% drawdown can typically be recovered in weeks or a few months, while a 50% drawdown may take several years to recover.  Depending on a trader's age, they may not have the time to wait on the recovery or the patience. Therefore, successful traders know it's critical to keep their drawdowns within reason, as most of them learned this principle the hard way! HOW WE CAN HELP YOU LEARN TO INVEST CONSERVATIVELY At TheTechnicalTraders.com, my team and I can do these things: Reduce your FOMO and manage your emotions. Have proven trading strategies for bull and bear markets. Provide quality trades for investing conservatively. Tell you when to take profits and exit trades. Save you time with our research. Provide above-average returns/growth over the long run. Have consistent growth with low volatility/risks. Make trading and investing safer, more profitable, and educational. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! We invite you to join our group of active traders who invest conservatively together. They learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

The pound continues to lose ground and is trading at its lowest level since May 2020. GBP/USD fell below the 1.22 level earlier and hasn’t had a daily winning session since May 4th. Negative growth raises alarm bells The UK economy is struggling, a grim fact which was brought home by the Q1 GDP report earlier today. On a quarterly basis, GDP came in at 0.8%, down from 1.3% in Q4 of 2020 and shy of the 1.0% estimate. Even worse, the economy contracted in March by 0.1%, after a 0.1% gain in February. This missed the forecast of 0.0%. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM The BoE has raised rates to 1.0%, a 13-year high, but it’s clear that the BoE has fallen behind the inflation curve and is playing catch-up The negative growth reading was a result of the crushing inflation that has gripped the UK. CPI hit 7% in March and the markets are braced for a reading of around 9% from week’s April CPI release. The cost of living crisis has dampened consumer spending, a key reason for the negative reading for March GDP. The BoE has raised rates to 1.0%, a 13-year high, but it’s clear that the BoE has fallen behind the inflation curve and is playing catch-up. At last week’s policy meeting, the central bank warned that inflation could top 10% and there was the danger of a recession. The pound tumbled over 2% in response, even though the BoE increased rates by 0.25%. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The grim economic outlook does not bode well for the pound, which has tumbled 7.1% since May 1st The BoE finds itself between a rock and a hard place. It needs to raise rates in order to curb soaring inflation, but weak growth means that the higher rates could tip the economy into recession. The grim economic outlook does not bode well for the pound, which has tumbled 7.1% since May 1st. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. US inflation eases, a bit US inflation weakened in April, but not as much as the markets had expected. CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, higher than the consensus of 8.1%. This slowdown was not enough for the markets to price in “peak-US inflation”, and the dollar managed to hold its own against the major currencies. There had been talk of an “inflation peak”, but the inflation data indicates that even if inflation is falling, the pace could be much slower than the markets would like. GBP/USD Technical GBP has breached support at 1.2199 for the first time since May 2020. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

A sell-off in the equity market and a new wave of flight to the dollar on Thursday provided the perfect combination to knock out gold, which slipped to $1810 in thin trading on Friday morning, falling to its lowest level since early February. The current decline in the price makes us keep a close eye on further developments Right now, it’s up to gold to decide whether we see a double top formation or whether the bulls are gaining strength and liquidity ahead of a new multi-month rising momentum. The current decline in the price makes us keep a close eye on further developments. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM A consolidation of the week under $1830 would reinforce that signal Yesterday, gold took a sharp plunge under the 200 SMA, which is often a bearish factor for the instrument. A consolidation of the week under $1830 would reinforce that signal. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM A potential bull target, in this case, could be the $2500 area This would open the way for another roughly 25% drop into the $1350 area, the area of the 2015-2018 highs. If we see an uptick in buyers’ in the hours and days ahead, we could say that gold is in a correction. Potentially, a reversal to the upside from these levels could signal the start of a new wave of long-term growth, the first impulse of which was in 2018-2020, followed by a prolonged wide side trend. A potential bull target, in this case, could be the $2500 area.

The British pound can’t seem to find its footing. GBP/USD hasn’t had a daily winning session since May 4th and closed on Thursday below the 1.22 line, for the first time since May 2020. In the European session, the pound is trading quietly at the 1.22 line. Recession fears, negative growth weighing on sterling The UK treated the markets to a data dump on Thursday, but the news was not positive. UK growth for Q2 showed a 0.8% gain, down sharply from 1.3% in Q4 of 2020 and missing the 1.0% estimate. In March, the economy contracted by 0.1%, compared to a 0.1% gain in February and shy of the estimate of 0.0%. Investors never like to hear the phrase ‘negative growth’ and the March GDP report pushed the pound lower on Thursday.  There was more bad news as Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and Business Investment all slowed down and posted negative readings. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The UK continues to grapple with spiralling inflation, and the BoE has warned that things could get even worse. CPI hit 7%  The BoE has raised rates to 1.0%, a 13-year high, but it will take time for higher interest rates to take a bite out of inflation. At last week’s policy meeting, the central bank warned that inflation could top 10% and there was the danger of a recession. The pound tumbled over 2% in response and has fallen another 125 points since then. Risk is tilted to the downside for the pound, which has tumbled about 7% since the beginning of April. Fed’s Powell confirmed by Senate Fed Chair Powell was overwhelmingly nominated for a second term on Thursday by the US Senate. Powell appears committed to delivering 0.50% rate hikes at the next two meetings, although there has been talk of a super-size 0.75% hike in order to curb soaring inflation. US inflation finally slowed in April, but the reading of 8.3% (8.5% prior) was hardly what the markets were looking for, and talk of an “inflation peak” proved to be premature. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM GBP/USD Technical 1.2199 remains under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The Canadian dollar is unchanged on Monday, as it trades at the 1.29 line. Weak US consumer confidence boosts Canadian dollar The Canadian dollar ended the week in splendid fashion, with gains of over 1 per cent. This marked the Canadian dollar’s best one-day performance this year and recovered all of the week’s losses. The strong gains were driven by a disappointing UoM Consumer Sentiment index for May, which dropped to 59.2, down sharply from 65.2 in April and the lowest since October 2011. Just one year ago, the index was 82.8, indicative of a massive erosion in the confidence levels of the US consumer. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM Consumers were more pessimistic about current and future expectations, and inflation expectations remained at 5.4% for a third straight month, a 40-year high. A fall in consumer confidence has so far not spilled over to consumer spending, but soaring inflation could cause consumers to cut back on spending, which would hurt economic growth. Canada posted some solid numbers earlier today, although that wasn’t enough for the Canadian dollar to extend Friday’s impressive gains. Housing Starts and Wholesale Sales improved and were stronger than expected. Manufacturing Sales rose 2.5% in March, crushing the estimate of 1.7%. Oil and metal sales rose, reflective of high commodity prices, which is bullish for the commodity-based Canadian dollar. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Canada’s tightening job market is putting further pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates at a faster pace than expected. The benchmark rate is currently at an even 1.00%, after the 0.50% hike in April. Governor Macklem has hinted that he could deliver more 0.50% hikes and we could see rates rise to 2% by the end of Q2. Macklem has signalled the rate-hike cycle could be very aggressive, saying that he will lift rates above 3% if necessary, in order to beat back spiralling inflation. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2962. Above, there is resistance at 1.3023 There is support at 1.2848 and 1.2787   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The US retail sales report for April is very solid and points to a willingness amongst households to run down accumulated savings to maintain lifestyles at a time when inflation is hurting real income growth. It fully backs the case for a sharp recovery in GDP growth in 2Q and a series of 50bp rate hikes from the Federal Reserve Learn more on ING Economics Restaurants and dining contributed positively to US April retail sales 29% Increase in US retail sales since January 2020   Households happy to spend US retail sales rose 0.9% month-on-month in April, not quite as strong as the 1% consensus expectation, but there were substantial upward revisions for March to 1.4% MoM growth from the 0.5% rate initially reported. Moreover, the "core" figures that better match up with broader consumer spending trends were much better than expected. The control group that excludes volatile food, gasoline, food service and building material rose 1% (consensus 0.7%) after a 1.1% increase in March (originally reported as -0.1%). The details show motor vehicle and parts sales rose 2.2%, which is quite disappointing given unit auto sales data posted a 7.2% MoM rise to 14.29mn in April and prices were significantly higher. Maybe we will see more upward revisions down the line or timing issues may mean they feed through into May’s figure. Gasoline station sales fell 2.7% due to slightly lower prices – remember the retail sales report is a nominal dollar value figure. Food & beverage stores, building materials and sporting goods all saw modest falls, but this was more than offset by a 4% increase in miscellaneous stores, a 2.1% increase in non-store retailers, a 1.1% increase at department stores and a 2% increase in eating and drinking place. US retail sales performance by component Source: Macrobond, ING Households are prepared to run down some savings This is an impressive outcome given consumer confidence has been hit hard by the fact wages are not keeping pace with the increases in the cost of living. Nonetheless, employment is rising and household wealth has increased substantially during the pandemic thanks to accumulated savings (in part down to huge fiscal support) and soaring asset prices. Today’s report suggests household appear content to run down some of those savings to maintain lifestyles. People movement has fully recovered after Omicron wave Source: Macrobond, ING 3%+GDP growth on the cards for 2Q 2022 This is also borne out by data showing big improvement in people movement around retail and recreation areas (see chart above on google mobility data), surging restaurant dining and a recovery in air passenger numbers following the Covid Omicron wave. This gives us more confidence in our 2Q GDP forecast of 3-3.5% annualized growth. In an environment of 3.6% unemployment and 8.3% inflation this supports the case for a series of 50bp rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. TagsUS Spending Retail sales GDP Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The rebound in global equities is fuelling a widespread recovery in G10 pro-cyclical FX against the USD. Still, yesterday's remarks by Jay Powell were a reminder of the very hawkish Fed policy. Ultimately, rate and growth differentials should curb the dollar's weakness against most peers - except for the CAD where today's CPI should endorse more hikes Learn on ING Economics USD: Don't forget the rate and growth factor The rebound in global equities has continued to fuel a recovery in pro-cyclical currencies, and a correction in the safe-haven US dollar and Japanese yen. Overnight, Asian equities were mixed, and the CSI300 failed to follow yesterday’s jump in US-traded Chinese tech stocks following some unusually supportive comments for China’s tech companies from one of Beijing’s top officials, which fuelled speculation of some easing in the current crackdown. Stock index futures suggest a flat open in major Western equity markets today. Clearly, the monetary policy story is playing a secondary role in the market narrative at the moment, but yesterday’s comments by Fed Chair Powell were quite relevant from a signalling perspective, as he firmly reiterated the Fed’s determination to bring inflation sustainably lower, even by hiking beyond the neutral rate if necessary. While the dollar momentum is set to remain weak as long as global assets stay in recovery mode, the notion of aggressive Fed tightening continues to argue against a sustained bearish dollar trend. Incidentally, this week’s moves have likely placed the dollar in a less overbought condition. With this in mind, DXY should find increasing support below the 103.00 area. The US economic calendar includes some housing data today, and Patrick Harker is the only Fed speaker scheduled for remarks. EUR: Upside room starting to shrink EUR/USD has risen in line with other pro-cyclical pairs this week, breaking back above the 1.0500 level and now being at a safe distance from the key 2017-low support of 1.0340, which if breached would probably pave the way for a move towards parity. Today, the eurozone calendar is not busy and only includes the final print of April’s CPI numbers. We’ll also hear from European Central Bank hawk Madis Muller today, although the recent re-pricing higher in ECB rate expectations (markets now fully price in a deposit rate at 1.0% in December) means that the bar for any hawkish surprise is set very high. Our view on the limited downside risk for the dollar beyond the very short term obviously implies that the room for appreciation in EUR/USD should also start to shrink soon. We also believe that markets are pricing in too much tightening by the ECB – though not by the Fed – and expect the theme of growth divergence (exacerbated by the EU-Russia standoff on commodities) to become more relevant into the summer. With this in mind, we suspect that any further rally in EUR/USD may start to lose steam around the 1.0650-1.0700 area, with risks of a return below 1.0500 in the near term being quite material. GBP: Inflation rises, but double digits aren't assured This morning’s inflation report in the UK was broadly in line with consensus expectations, as headline CPI rose to 9.0% (largely due to the increase in the electricity price cap) with the core rate rising to 6.2% year-on-year in April. This means inflation is largely where the Bank of England expects it to be. Still, the BoE projections embed a move to double-digit inflation by the end of the year, a prospect that we are still not convinced will materialise. There are no BoE speakers today. The oversold pound has faced a strong rebound this week, recouping some of its recent sharp losses as global risk appetite improved. While the good GBP momentum may continue as equities find some stability in the coming days, the pound still faces two major downside risks in the coming months: a) a further dovish repricing of BoE rate expectations (the implied rate for end-2022 is still 2.0%); b) Brexit-related risk, as the unilateral suspension by the UK of parts of the Northern Ireland agreement would likely trigger a trade war with the EU. We think cable will mostly trade below the 1.2500 mark during the summer. CAD: Inflation data unlikely to affect BoC policy expectations Inflation data will be released in Canada today, and the market is expecting some signs that the headline rate has peaked (at 6.7% YoY), which would imply a monthly increase of 0.5% in April. Core measures may however continue to inch marginally higher. Barring major surprises in the data today, we suspect that the impact on the Bank of Canada's rate expectations and on the Canadian dollar will be limited. The BoC remains on track to deliver 50bp of rate increases in tandem with the Fed, being able to count on a tight labour market, growing workforce and positive commodity story. In our view, the BoC will ultimately have to deliver more monetary tightening than the Fed in the next year. USD/CAD has broken below 1.2800 and should continue to weaken if we see further signs of stability in global sentiment today. Crucially, the rate and growth differential that may curb EUR/USD don't apply to CAD vs USD given a hawkish BoC and strong growth in Canada, which means that a rally in the loonie should prove more sustainable than the EUR/USD one. We continue to target sub-1.25 levels in USD/CAD by the second half of the year. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The Canadian dollar has looked sharp, taking advantage of recent US dollar weakness. USD/CAD barrelled past the 1.30 line on Thursday, but the Canadian dollar has rallied and is currently trading at 1.2830. Has Canada’s inflation peaked? Investors are keeping both eyes on Canada’s April inflation report, which will be released later today. On a monthly basis, the markets are expecting a significant drop – headline CPI is expected at 0.5% (1.4% prior) and core CPI is projected at 0.4% (1.0% prior). If the readings are within expectations, we can expect some headlines trumpeting that inflation has peaked. I would argue that it would be premature to declare that inflation is easing based on a single reading. Still, the CPI release could be a market-mover. If inflation is weak, the markets may expect the BoC to be less aggressive in its rate hiking stance and that could send the Canadian dollar lower. Conversely, a stronger than expected CPI would likely send the Canadian currency higher. The BoC raised rates by 0.50% in April, and there is strong pressure to deliver another 0.50% hike at the June 1st meeting, especially if inflation is higher than expected. The US dollar lost ground overnight, even though US Treasury yields moved higher and Fed Chair Powell said rates could rise above the terminal rate (around 3.50%) in order to contain inflation. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke weighed in on Fed policy, saying that the central bank waited too long to respond to inflation. Bernanke warned that he expected to see stagflation in the next year or two. Despite the talk of recession and stagflation, the US posted strong numbers on Tuesday, led by retail sales. The headline reading came in at 0.9% and core retail sales at 1.0%, as both beat the estimates. Consumers are in a spending mood, despite a weakening in consumer confidence. If inflation doesn’t show signs of easing in the next few months, consumers might reduce spending, which could dampen economic growth. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2848. Above, there is resistance at 1.2962 There is support at 1.2787 and 1.2673 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Summary:  After the odd tapping on the brakes at the May 4 FOMC meeting, when the Fed wanted to take the idea of 75-basis point rates off the table, Fed Chair Powell reminded the market of its mission to ensure that it will not let up on policy tightening until it has achieved a sustained drop in inflation. Elsewhere, the sterling squeeze is fading fast and the status of key USD charts is pivotal. FX Trading focus: Powell puts back on the hawkish hat, GBP squeeze fading fast, USDCAD spotlight Fed Chair Powell reminds us of the Fed’s mission in saying that the Fed “won’t hesitate at all” to take the Fed Funds rate above neutral, and that “what we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way, and we’re going to keep pushing until we see that.” Powell admitted that taking levels above neutral could bring some pain and a rise in the unemployment rate. End-2022 Fed expectations rose about 10 basis points yesterday and this morning were at 2.82%, just shy of the 2.88% cycle highs from before the May 4 FOMC meeting, at which Powell discouraged the idea of hiking more than 50 basis points at a time (why?). This only offered the USD a modicum of support overnight as risk sentiment absorbed the news without much fuss. GBP shorts caught in quite the squeeze yesterday, likely aggravated badly by positioning, which is quite heavily bearish in the US futures market and in general. Yesterday I mentioned the very strong payrolls data as a driver, but there was also the news that the UK government may be considering tax cuts, including a lowering of the VAT, as well as cost-of-living support for the most vulnerable citizens. In the first instance, this could eventually help ease inflation levels and thus allow the Bank of England to hike more than previously expected, but the follow-on thinking is that it could also keep demand higher than it would be otherwise and continue to driver extreme external deficits for the UK, eroding the sovereign UK balance sheet and therefore possibly trust in sterling as well. Sterling has surrendered much of yesterday’s gains – watching for a capitulation again in GBPUSD, while the EURGBP has bounced back above the existential 0.8450 area that  was pivotal on the way up. A very choppy chart there. USDCAD and US vs. Canada Housing spotlightThe CAD has received a double dose of support from the recent strong bounce in risk sentiment and crude oil prices pulling into the top of the range and beyond at times recently. But let’s look a bit further ahead at the inevitable gathering storm that is set to hit the housing market in coming months, after yields have lurched sharply higher. The headline is that if an ugly housing slowdown lies ahead, it will hit Canada’s economy with far more force than it will the US economy. Construction itself contributes about 75% more to GDP in Canada than the US (about 7.5% vs. 4.3%), and private balance sheets in Canada are far more levered, with notable local housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver making UBS world top ten list (at #2 and #6) of worst housing bubbles in 2021. The Greater Toronto area, by the way, represents over 17% of the Canadian population. I have better data on the US market and can see solidifying signs in leading indicators that the US housing market is set for a slowdown, including yesterday’s worst of the cycle drop in the NAHB for the May data point, which fell 8 points to 69 versus 75 expected and 77 in April. The latest Housing Starts and Building Permits data is up today (for April), although this lags the NAHB historically by about six months in directional terms. US Pending home sales have also rolled over as discussed in today’s Saxo Market Call podcast and are another leading indicator. So, while near term, an additional boost to sentiment and energy prices could see a break-down in USDCAD, the Canadian economy will face disproportionately large end-of-cycle pressures once the recession arrives, so clouds remain over the cycle outlook for the loonie. Chart thoughts below for USDCAD Chart: USDCADThe USDCAD chart has retreated to critical levels for bulls, as a significant punch below 1.2800 makes the chart look a lost cause for the bulls (arguably, the last, last gasp area is just ahead of 1.2700 at the prior pivot lows or even 1.2660 if using the 61.8% retracement and the 200-day moving average, although the reversal back down through 1.2900-50 has already been a disappointment after that level to the upside was broken. An impulsive recovery back above 1.3000 to put the momentum back on track higher. Source: Saxo Group Underwhelming wage price data for Q1 from Australia overnight, which rose a mere 0.7% QoQ and 2.4% YoY, both 0.1% below expectations. This is meant to be the key data that would drive the RBA to accelerate its tightening regime if it provided evidence of a wage price spiral. Alas, the AUD seems more focused on hopes for China lifting Covid restrictions and swings in risk sentiment. The 0.7000-0.7050 zone remains the tactical resistance focus, with bears possibly needing to retreat back to 0.7200-50 if it does not hold. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The USD is losing steam in a trending sense, and would need a solid new impulsive move higher soon to avoid a further breakdown in key pairs, and versus the G10 currencies generally. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.USDCAD is on the verge of flipping into a positive territory on the trend readings if it can’t rally soon. Also note the EURGBP rally hanging on by a thread here. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – US Apr. Housing Starts and Building Permits 1230 – Canada Apr. CPI 1230 – Canada Apr. Home Price Index 2000 – US Fed’ Harker (Non-voter) to speak 2350 – Japan Apr. Trade Balance 0130 – Australia Apr. Employment Data Source: Saxo Bank

Fear of a recession may be one of the reasons pushing risky asset prices lower. Yesterday alone, the Dow Jones fell 3.57 percent and the S&P 500 fell 4.04 percent, its biggest one-day drop since June 2020. The Nasdaq Composite was off 4.73 percent. The U.S. economy is mainly spinning thanks to consumption and largely living on credit Another turnaround on Wall Street came after the release of the results of U.S. big-box retail chains such as Wal-Mart and Target. The share price of the former fell by almost 25 percent from its April peak, and the latter by about 40 percent. Why is this important? The U.S. economy is mainly spinning thanks to consumption and largely living on credit. Decrease in consumption by higher inflation, as shown by the results of companies and their comments to the results, can therefore be a wake-up call that the US economy will no longer grow so rapidly. As a result, there has been an even greater fear of recession, which in the current inflationary environment brings to mind the stagflation of the 70s-80s in the United States. Add to that rising lending rates through interest rate hikes, broken supply chains and an expensive U.S. dollar eroding export profits. According to some, this is the perfect set of factors that could push the market further into the embrace of a waking bear market. Investors also might be looking for the point at which they believe the dollar and U.S. bonds have priced in a full cycle of rate hikes before the Fed In a more optimistic scenario, however, they may predict that inflation will peak in the second or third quarter of this year and then begin to decline starting in the fourth quarter of 2022. At that point, consumers could breathe a sigh of relief as prices would still rise, but no longer as fast as before. The same could be true for the stock market, which statistically, in cycles of interest rate hikes, seemed to create corrections in the first reaction and then continued earlier trends. Investors also might be looking for the point at which they believe the dollar and U.S. bonds have priced in a full cycle of rate hikes before the Fed. At that point, they could switch from the dollar to bonds or stocks, which could also put the brakes on the declines currently seen. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Since the beginning of the year alone, the Nasdaq index has fallen by 27 percent, the S&P 500 by more than 18 percent, and the Dow Jones by less than 15 percent. U.S. 10-year bonds have shrunk by 8 percent, and gold has fallen by 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has gained about 8 percent. This could quite clearly show that the cash phase of the cycle may be underway. It may be followed, according to theory, by the bond phase of the cycle and only the equity phase of the cycle. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Summary: The market sentiment for the EUR/USD currency pair turns mixed. Inflation and economic data weighing on the GBP. BoJ continues to fight rising interest rates. AUD strengthens amidst favourable unemployment data. The market seems to be favouring the Euro for a change The market is signalling mixed market sentiment for this currency pair. The U.S dollar lost ground to the EUR during Thursdays early trading, however, the demand for the safe-haven asset remains steady due to investor risk sentiment still being fragile. Earlier this week the Fed announced they would push interest rates as high as necessary to fight the surging inflation. On Thursday the market is waiting for the minutes from the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting to be released, hoping there will be an indication of a tightening in monetary policy. Read next: (EUR/USD) Hopes Of A Hawkish ECB Shows Favour To The Euro, (EUR/GBP) UK CPI Inflation Data Knocks The Pound Sterling - Good Morning Forex!  This begs the question: despite the Fed's already hawkish monetary policy, why is the market not pricing in much for the hawkish Fed, but pricing in a lot for the European Central Bank (ECB) ? EUR/USD Price Chart BoE and ECB expected to raise interest rates The market is reflecting a mixed market sentiment on Thursday. Earlier in the trading week, UK economic data releases weighted on the value of the Pound Sterling, global investor sentiment and the current equity bear market are both aspects that could mean further losses for the GBP. Earlier on in the trading week, the GBP gained on both the Euro and the US Dollar, but a midweek sentiment turn around has bought the Pound Sterling back down. Both the ECB and the Bank of England (BOE) are expected to raise interest rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News! USD continues to beat the JPY The Japanese yen seems to be an underperformer in the past week, perhaps this is due to the rising U.S yields by the Fed amidst the Bank of Japan (BoJ) fighting against tightening their monetary policy. Should the market face a big risk-off sentiment, the JPY might see some gains, however in this currency pair, it may not be noticeable due to the USD also being seen as a safe-haven currency. USD/JPY Price Chart AUD regains some investor confidence Market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish. Investor confidence has increased in the Australian Dollar after the unemployment rate for April came in at 3.9% which not only exceeded market expectations but is also the lowest rate since the 1970s. AUD/JPY Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP) Euro Strengthens In The Wake Of Villeroys Comments On Monday, (AUD/JPY), (GBP/USD) Pound Sterling Showing Strength - Good Morning Forex!   Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com

The US labour market is becoming increasingly tight, but at the same time, the rate of job alternation is increasing steadily. The latest weekly data shows that the number of new jobless claims is dropping further to 1.317 million, a new low since 1969 when the US population was 40% less than now. At the same time, the number of initial claims last week stood at 218,000 against 197,000 a week earlier, continuing the upward trend of the previous two months. Since the recurrence rates are methodically declining and the latest employment report noted an increase in employment, it is logical to assume that the rise in initial claims is due to people being more active and finding work quickly. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM One of the secondary effects of the current labour market situation might be a continued high rate of wage growth. This is a good signal of economic activity. Still, it should also increase the vigilance of the hawks at the US Federal Reserve, setting them up to tighten the monetary policy nuts tighter and faster.

Summary:  Asian markets joined the overnight selloff in US equities although some reversals were seen subsequently. Risk sentiment saw a mild recovery but the outlook for consumer discretionary remains murky amid rising cost pressures and inventory building. Australia’s unemployment rate dipped to record lows and watch for Japan’s CPI and China’s loan prime rates due on Friday. What’s happening in markets? Wall Street stocks hit new lows as the market anticipates earnings declines and further slowdowns in consumer spending, amid tighter financial conditions. This is what’s dragging tech and consumer spending stocks (ex-reopening stocks) to new lows. The S&P500 fell 4% on Wednesday, eroding most of its recent gains. The Nasdaq fell 4.7%, taking the top 100 stock index to its lowest level since November 2020. We think the market is not yet at capitulation point - further selling is ahead. The extra risk now is that volatility, is causing boutique investment managers to be on the brink of margin collapse, which could add to further selling pressure in markets and stocks that are down heavily. Asian equity markets join the global sell-off. Japan’s Nikkei (NI225.I) was down over 2.5% led by tech such as Tokyo Electron (8035) and consumer discretionary with Fast Retailing (9983) down over 3%. Singapore’s STI index (ES3) also dropped close to 1% on Thursday morning after Singapore Airlines reported earnings with a narrower loss and an upbeat outlook. Hong Kong and mainland China equity markets gapped down but losses narrowed at mid-day.  Following overnight US equity market’s worst sell-off since June 2020, Hang Seng Index (HSI.I) slumped as much as 3.5% in the morning. Tencent’s (00700) over 8% plunge in share price after reporting Q1 results below market expectations dampened sentiment further. Tencent’s Q1 revenues and EPS coming at flat and -23% YoY respectively and both were 4% below consensus estimates. Online games revenues (PC + mobile) declined 2% YoY and online advertising revenue dropped 18% YoY. Investors were also troubled the management’s remarks saying support initiatives from the Chinese Government to the tech industry takes time and will not benefit the Company much in near-term.  By mid-day, Tencent is down 6.6% and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) is down 3%.  Hang Seng Index and CSI300 (00300.I) fell 2% and 0.3% respectively. Tesla (TSLA) shares slide 7%, more selling to come as S&P500 boots it out of ESG Index, at a time when market anticipates earnings growth to fall and costs to rise. S&P explained why it kicked Tesla out of its ESG index saying Tesla’s “lack of a low-carbon strategy” and “codes of business conduct,” along with racism and poor working conditions reported at Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California, affected the score. Separately, new research suggests battery cell prices will surge 22% from 2023 to 2026 amid the scarcity in raw materials needed to make EV batteries. This is why we continue to advocate that clients would be better served in commodity companies who are benefiting from price inflation, rather than commodity consumers (EV makers). Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Cisco (CSCO) – a proxy for business IT spending, guides for weaker earnings. Cisco is of the largest IT and networking businesses in the world (catering to a 1/3 the world’s market). It reported its Euro and Asian sales fell 6%. But the real story is its weak guidance. Cisco CEO guided for a drop in revenue ahead, expecting a 1-5% revenue decline for Q4, at a time when the market expected revenue growth of over 5%. This reflects that businesses are not willing to open up their pockets, at a time when inflation (wages, energy) is rising and interest rates are going higher. Consumer spending retail proxies hugely disappoint - as their profit outlooks dim. Target (TGT) shares fell 25% (biggest drop since Black Monday). Walmart (WMT) fell almost 8% as both retailers cut their forecasts for profit amid a slowdown in home-good sales at a time when they’re guiding for rising costs pressures (fuel, freight costs, rising wages). Target and Walmart make $600 billion in combined revenue, that’s double the size of the biggest company on the ASX. So given that both the retail giants are proxies for consumer spending, their demise could translate to other companies. What to consider? US retailer earnings signal shifting consumer spending patterns. We have seen a number of weak retailer/ecommerce earnings from the US now starting with Amazon (AMZN) to Walmart (WMT) to Target (TGT) reporting a 52% decline in profits overnight. While US retail sales show that the consumer is still resilient, there is certainly a shift in spending patterns away from home appliances that were the most sought after during the pandemic to reopening and travel related items such as luggage and services. But it is also important to note that inventory levels are building up, which may mean more write downs or a mark down in prices to sell off. Higher costs are also weighing and only likely to get worse in the second quarter. This means retailers will continue to face the brunt for now. Offshore investors were net seller in onshore RMB bonds for the 3rd consecutive month.  In April, foreign investors sold RMB88 billion (USD13.3bn equivalent) worth of onshore RMB bonds.  The amount of selling moderated somewhat from March’s RMB98 billion. Net inflow of foreign currency from China’s trade settlement declined. In April, net trade settlement was only 42% of China’s trade surplus of that month, below the 2021 average of 58%.  The key driver for the low net inflows seems coming from higher than usual demand from importers to buy foreign currencies, staying at escalated level of 65.1% in April versus 2021 average of 55.8%.  Exporters repatriated 60.8% of the total goods exports in April.  It was down from March’s 65.8% but still well above 2021 average of 54.6%.  Dollar trimmed gains in Asia. The USD moved higher as risk sentiment was eroded overnight, but trimmed gains in Asia. GBPUSD rose back towards 1.2400 while EURUSD was seen back above 1.0500. UK inflation shot up to 9% y/y in April from 7% previously, continuing to complicate the task for the BOE. Yen weakened in Asia, but the cap in 10-year yields as equities lose momentum is suggesting yen weakness has mostly run its course, at least on the crosses. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM AUDUSD rises 0.9%, off its low as Australian unemployment fell to a new historical monthly low (3.9%). This is the lowest reading for the survey. Unemployment was lower in 1974 when survey was quarterly. However, the AUD rose modestly off low, up 0.9% today to 0.7020, as the strong employment data gives the RBA more ammunition to raise rates - given Australia’s economy strengthened. China’s reopening theme also adds to upside for the AUD. However, longer term, as the Fed raises rates, this strengthens the USD, will likely cut the AUD’s grass. Japan imports swell on energy and weak yen. April trade deficit was seen at 839 billion yen as exports grew 12.5% y/y but imports rising 28% on higher energy prices and the drop in yen to two decade lows. Following a negative GDP print for Q1 reported yesterday, the impeding trade position is adding to Q2 risks and pent up demand remains the key to provide an offset in order to avoid a technical recession. Rising inflationary environment may however weigh on consumer spending and Japan’s April CPI will be on watch tomorrow. Consensus expects a rise to 2.5% y/y from 1.2% in March with core CPI also turning positive at 0.7% from -0.7% previously. Potential trading ideas to consider? Short CNHJPY trade that we put on last month may still have room to go. The larger foreign currency outflows due to offshore investors’ bond selling and smaller inflow of foreign currency from trade settlement tend to give add to the depreciating pressure the renminbi. At the same time, the Japanese Yen is benefiting from a safe haven bid in the midst of global equity sell-offs.  Both Japanese investors and overseas leveraged investors who fund their positions in Yen tend to repatriate and need to buy Yen in the time of turmoil.  In addition, the prospect of a pickup in inflation in Japan may trigger traders to cover their bearish positions in the Japanese Yen.  Asian retailers likely to see pressure from global counterparts. Consumer discretionary sector was leading the decline in the S&P overnight, and the rout is likely to spread to Asia. Watching key Asian retailer shares like Japan’s Fast Retailing (9983), Hong Kong’s Sun Art Retail (6808) and Australia’s Harvey Norman (HVN). With liquidity conditions only starting to tighten, there is likely room for the equity rout to run further, but cash is not a viable asset for long term investors. We remain overweight commodities and reopening.   Key economic releases this week: Friday: Japan nationwide CPI, China loan prime rates   Key earnings release this week: Thursday: Xiaomi, Generali, National Grid, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, Ross Stores, DiDi Global   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. 

Wednesday was another bad day for equities where the MSCI World equity index fell another 3%. The fact that expectations for Fed policy tightening remain intact is a sign that investors appreciate that tackling inflation is now the priority for central banks. This continues to favour the anti-cyclical dollar, but also now the Japanese yen Source: Shutterstock USD: The cavalry ain't coming Yesterday saw the S&P 500 sell off 4%, led by consumer stocks. The fact that some of the biggest main street names are under pressure on the back of profit warnings is a reminder that the squeeze on real incomes is starting to hit home. Over prior decades, decades associated with very dovish Fed policy, one might have expected this magnitude of an equity market sell-off to put a dent in Fed tightening expectations - or expectations that the Fed would come to the equity market's rescue. In fact, the Fed funds futures strip barely budged yesterday. We read this as a sign that investors now appreciate that tackling inflation is the number one priority of the Fed - and the Fed will not easily be blown off course. At the same time, we are still only hearing concerns from Chinese policymakers about the slowdown, rather than any promise of major fiscal support. And one could argue what would be the use of major fiscal support if workers and residents remain trapped in Covid lockdowns? For that reason, it seems very difficult to argue that renminbi depreciation has run its course and we cannot rule out USD/CNY pushing through the 6.80 area over coming weeks and months. This all leaves the anti-cyclical dollar quite well supported. We had made the case on Tuesday for a bounce in the oversold dollar. That bounce did not last long and again it is hard to rule out the dollar edging back to recent highs. Not until the Fed blinks on policy tightening or the rest of the world's growth prospects start to look attractive - neither of which seem likely over coming months - will the dollar put in an important top.  For today, the US calendar is light with just initial claims and existing home sales for April. Housing looks to be one of the most vulnerable sectors of the US economy, but its slowdown (and its effect on dragging core inflation lower) looks a story for much later in the year. DXY has seen a modest bull market correction this week, but can probably edge higher to 104.10 today. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM EUR: ECB will have to talk a good game Providing the euro a little support this week has been even more hawkish commentary from the European Central Bank. We had felt that the market would struggle to price in more than 75bp of ECB tightening this year, but central bank hawks such as Klaas Knot have introduced the idea of the ECB moving in 50bp increments. This has helped narrow the two-year German Schatz-US Treasury spread to 225bp from recent wides at 250bp and provided some modest support for the dollar. This can be seen as verbal intervention from the ECB to support the euro. An important policy paper from the ECB a few years ago concluded that two-year rate differentials were the most significant driver of EUR/USD and the ECB's best hope of stablising EUR/USD may indeed be to talk up prospects of the forthcoming tightening cycle. For today, look out for the minutes of the April ECB meeting, where again it might choose to emphasise the more hawkish elements. EUR/USD has had its oversold bounce to 1.0550 and with the global environment remaining challenged, EUR/USD could today drift back through 1.0450/60 to 1.0400. Elsewhere, we note some short-term similarities between both the Swiss franc and the Czech koruna. The central banks behind both currencies would prefer stronger currencies to play their role in delivering stable/tighter monetary conditions. We conclude that EUR/CHF upside may be more limited - and the downside more open - than most believe. While for EUR/CZK, the Czech National Bank (CNB) will want EUR/CZK to continue trading under 25.00 and perhaps lower still - until at least 1 July when a new CNB governor takes over.  GBP: One month realised volatility at 8%! EUR/GBP one month realised volatility is back at 8% - which is very high for a European FX pair. Expect this volatility to continue given much uncertainty about the policy path for both the Bank of England (BoE) and the ECB. Here, we happen to think that tightening cycles in both are over-priced and one would probably think that the BoE cycle gets repriced lower first. Expect EUR/GBP to continue to trade in a very wide 0.8400-0.8600 range, while cable looks more one-way traffic. We have seen the bear market bounce to 1.2500 this week and the difficult external environment would favour a break of 1.2330 support in a move back to the 1.22 lows.  Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM ZAR: SARB expected to hike 50bp today The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is widely expected to hike 50bp to 4.75% today. The policy rate is quite low by emerging market standards, but that is because core inflation is only running at 3.9% year-on-year. A 50bp hike looks unlikely to generate much support to the rand, which is currently being re-priced off of the Chinese growth cycle. With $70bn of portfolio capital having left emerging markets since Russia invaded Ukraine - and with South Africa having large weights in emerging market debt and equity benchmarks - we expect the rand to stay under pressure for the time being.  16.35 is big resistance for USD/ZAR, above which 17.00 beckons for later in the year. Rising US real yields and the China slowdown continue to make the bear case for emerging markets.   Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

US stocks edged lower as Wall Street became more focused over a deteriorating growth outlook that could see stubbornly high pricing pressures for the Fed into a much more aggressive tightening cycle. It doesn’t seem like we will see a deceleration in pricing pressures and that has many traders worried that the Fed will send the economy into a recession.  Right now markets are functioning properly but if we see another 5% decline with stocks, credit conditions will worsen and that could provide the Fed an excuse to stop tightening so aggressively.  Tighter financial conditions will hurt the parts of the economy that are doing well and further selling of stocks could remain the theme if the S&P 500 enters a bear market.  The S&P 500 is looking vulnerable here as more strategists slash their forecasts as recession risks rise.  Fed (Federal Reserve) Fed’s George affirmed the board’s stance that a half-point rate increase pace is appropriate.  The Fed remains focused with fighting inflation and they will remain aggressive with tightening policy until liquidity becomes a concern.  FX (Forex) The dollar is in freefall as investors buy up Treasuries over concerns that the economy is headed for a rough patch. The dollar was ripe for a pullback and today’s across the board weakness might continue a while longer. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM US Data A wrath of US economic data painted a gloomy picture of the economy: Jobless claims rose, the housing market is clearly cooling, another Fed regional survey showed the weakest print since early in the pandemic and the leading index turned negative.  Weekly jobless claims rose from 197,000 to 218,000. The Philly Fed manufacturing outlook fell sharply from 17.6 to 2.6.  Surging mortgage rates and record home prices led to a drop in April existing home sales  Crude Oil Price Crude prices rallied as the EU nears a key deadline to pay for Russian oil with a roubles account.  The oil market just has too many risks to supplies and still a strong short-term travel outlook both in the EU and US.  WTI crude should be well supported at the $100 level as US production is slowly increasing. Recession fears are rising but that impact won’t be felt for quite a while, which means the oil market won’t see imminent crude demand destruction. Crude inventories are too low for oil traders to turn bearish with WTI crude. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Gold Price Gold is acting like a safe-haven again as recession fears are triggering massive demand for Treasuries, which is sending both yields and the dollar lower. The US labor market is showing signs of weakness and that could lead fears that consumer spending will deteriorate much faster than most are expecting. The dollar is getting sold against everything and that is great news for gold. Right now, investors are looking for safety and Treasuries and gold should both outperform in the short-term.   Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin is hovering around the $30,000 level as investors continue to shy away from stocks.  A weaker dollar and bear market stock fears are making Bitcoin attractive again.  It seems the fallout from all the stablecoin drama that sent cryptos sharply lower is finally fading.  Bitcoin looks poised to consolidate here, but bulls should be happy to see prices are not mimicking what happens with the stock market.   Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Some support measures for the Chinese economy and some stability in the Chinese renminbi have helped usher in a period of consolidation in FX markets. This may well last into next week, although we would consider this a pause not a reversal in the dollar's bull trend. The stronger dollar is also exporting Fed hikes around the world Not until the Fed pours cold water on tightening expectations should the dollar build a top USD: Some consolidation is in order The dollar is now about 2% off its highs seen late last week. Driving that move has probably been some position liquidation and a preference for currencies like the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Swiss franc (CHF) during turbulent times in global equity markets. In fact, yesterday's FX activity looked like the big sell-off in EUR/CHF on Swiss National Bank (SNB) comments which triggered downside stops in USD/CHF and prompted a slightly broader dollar adjustment. Also helping this period of consolidation has been this week's stability in the Chinese renminbi (CNY). The overnight 15bp cut in the 5-year Loan Prime Rate – aimed at supporting the property sector – has instilled a little more confidence in Chinese assets markets. However, we cannot see USD/CNY heading straight back to 6.50. Instead, a 6.65-6.80 trading range may be developing after the recent CNY devaluation.  However, the emerging market environment still looks challenged given that the stronger dollar is effectively exporting tighter Fed policy around the world. Yesterday we saw rate hikes in Egypt, South Africa, and the Philippines. After devaluing the Egyptian pound by 15% in March, authorities there are very much struggling with the external environment. This has seen Egypt's 5-year Sovereign Credit Default swap rise to news highs of 940bp and is a reminder of the challenge North Africa faces from surging food prices. For today, the data calendar is relatively quiet and there may be some interest in what G7 finance ministers and central bank governors have to say after their meeting in Bonn. Reports suggest Japan would like some tweaks to the final G7 communique, but we very much doubt there will be any change in the core FX language that FX rates be market-determined and that excessive volatility and disorderly moves be avoided. DXY could correct a little lower to 102.30, but we see this as bull market consolidation, rather than top-building activity. Not until the Fed pours cold water on tightening expectations should the dollar build a top. And yesterday Fed hawk, Esther George, said that even this 'rough week' in equity markets would not blow the Fed off course.  EUR: ECB hawks in control Minutes of the April ECB meeting released yesterday show that the hawks are calling the shots. The market now prices a 31/32bp ECB rate hike at the 21 July ECB meeting – pricing which has plenty of scope to bounce between +25bp and +50bp over the next two months. This could drag EUR/USD back to the 1.0650/70 area over the coming days – helped by brief periods of calm in the external environment – but as above we would see this as a bear market bounce. Our core EUR/USD view for 2H22 is one of heightened volatility and probably EUR/USD getting close to parity in 3Q22 when expectations of the Fed tightening cycle could be at their zenith. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM GBP: April retail sales provide a reprieve UK retail sales have come in a little better than expected and break/suspend the narrative that the cost of living squeeze is large enough to derail the Bank of England tightening cycle. We would not get carried away with the sterling recovery, however. Sterling is showing a high correlation with risk assets – trading as a growth currency – and the outlook for risk assets will remain challenging for the next three to six months probably. Here's what our credit strategy team thinks of the European outlook.  Cable may struggle to breach the 1.2500/2550 area and 1.20 levels are very possible over the coming months. New-found hawkishness at the ECB means that EUR/GBP may struggle to sustain a move below 0.8450 before returning to 0.8600. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM CHF: SNB policy makes the case for EUR/CHF sub 1.00 next year As we discuss in an article released yesterday, it looks like the SNB is targeting a stable real exchange rate to fight inflation. Given that Switzerland's inflation is roughly 4% lower than key trading partners, a stable real exchange rate means that the nominal exchange rate needs to be 4% stronger. This will be an added factor supporting the CHF over the coming months and may start to generate interest in trades positioning for a lower GBP/CHF. 1.2080 is a big support level but 1.1860 looks like the near-term target. Read this article on THINK TagsGBP FX Daily ECB CHF Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

For the past two months, stocks, precious metals, bonds, and cryptocurrencies have all seemed to fall at the same time. Today, however, and perhaps throughout the week, there may be an attempt to break the bad run in many of the markets mentioned above. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes have fallen for seven weeks in a row The Dow Jones Industrial Average index has fallen for eight weeks in a row, something that previously happened in 1923, a few years before the Great Depression occurred in the United States - the most significant economic crisis of the century. Some market observers say that now, nearly 100 years later, history may be repeating itself, and the bear market is just beginning. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes have fallen for seven weeks in a row, which was the longest series since 2001. Technically, the U.S. indexes, having fallen more than 20 percent from their peaks, may already be in a bear market. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM However, there are indications that a turnaround may be underway. Investors may have already discounted the U.S. interest rate hike cycle, assuming that the Fed will raise interest rates to 3.00-3.25 percent within a year. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds have already peaked in that area, at one point exceeding 3.10 percent, while on Monday their rate fell to 2.80 percent. The lower U.S. bond yields, the more attractive stocks, and other risky assets can be, including precious metals like gold and silver. This week, the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting will be released at 8 p.m. on Wednesday, May 25..., which could give investors further clues about monetary policy in the U.S. and how to price the interest rate hike cycle further possibly. This could again impact many markets: from the US dollar to stock indices, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Read more on Conotoxia Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Jonny Hart speaks to APAC Senior Market Analyst Jeffrey Halley about news impacting the market and the week ahead. European PMIs are the week’s highlight tomorrow Welcome to a new week with policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Korea, and Bank Indonesia. We start today’s podcast with a quick overview of Asian markets. A quiet news weekend has left Asian markets focusing once again on China and the covid zero slowdowns. We look at price action around Asia and discuss the future of China and covid zero. Next, it’s over to equity and currency markets. We discuss whether the worst is over for equities and if the US Dollar rally has run its course. We then look ahead to the data calendar which is fairly quiet this week. European PMIs are the week’s highlight tomorrow. We discuss them and their potential impact on the single currency. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Learn more on Oanda

Every Tuesday our Global Macro Strategist Luke Suddards will be analysing the charts of key global asset classes such as FX, commodities and more. Catch him on Twitter - @lukesuddards Also, he produces The Weekly Close Out every Friday, which provides key insights into the main catalysts for all the major global macro assets throughout the week. The analysis takes a hybrid approach - combining fundamental and technical analysis with charts to enhance your trading experience. Sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox: https://cloud.go.pepperstone.com/week ➡️ Follow us on Telegram for daily market news and insights: https://t.me/s/PepperstoneFX Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Weekly Recap The main story this week was the reversal lower in the US Dollar. The Dollar Index closed out its first losing week since the final week of March as recession fears took hold. The reversal was seemingly fuelled by comments from Fed chairman Powell midweek suggesting a more aggressive course of action from the Fed. Powell warned that the central bank is prepared to raise rates above the neutral level, if necessary, to bring inflation down and will not stop until inflation is back at target. With inflation still at elevated levels and with interest rates higher and expected to rise materially in coming months, traders are concerned over the impact on growth. These fears were well reflected this week in the sharp reversal lower in USD. UK inflation was seen hitting 40-year highs last month at 9%, putting BOE rate hike expectations back into focus. The SNB was seen making a U-turn on monetary policy with SNB chairman Jordan warning that the SNB is ready to act on inflation, which is travelling well above the SNB’s target. The release of the ECB meeting minutes this week highlighted the hawkish shift taking place among members, with the market now increasingly pricing in a July rate hike. It was a volatile week for equities with the FTSE ending the week roughly flat (as of writing) after plenty of two-way action. The ASX200, the DAX and the Nikkei ended the week higher while the S&P and the Nasdaq were firmly in the red as Fed rate-hike expectations overtook USD weakness. It was a better week for precious metals with both gold and silver rallying on USD weakness. Oil prices were unable to capitalise on USD weakness, however, as focus remains on the ongoing EU negotiations regarding potential sanctions on Russian oil. While many EU leaders are pushing for an EU-wide ban on Russian oil by year end, the chances of achieving this look unlikely given fierce opposition from Hungary and Greece among others. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Coming Up Next Week US, Eurozone, UK PMIs Traders will get the latest insight into the performance of the factory and non-factory sectors in the US, eurozone and UK. With inflation surging in all three economies and with supply-chain issues remaining a real problem there is a very real threat that these readings highlight weakness. Given the recessionary concerns which have taken centre stage recently, if these readings underperform asset markets are likely to come under pressure over the week. RBNZ Rate decision The RBNZ meeting this week is expected to see the bank hike rates by a further .5%. 20 out of 21 economists polled by Reuters are calling for such a move. Given these hawkish expectations, if the bank hikes by less than .5% NZD will likely come under heavy selling pressure. If a .5% hike is announced, the focus will then be on forward guidance with NZD likely to rally if the RBNZ points to further hikes incoming. FOMC Meeting Minutes The May FOMC minutes this week are expected to highlight the uptick in Fed hawkishness recently. There’s potentially some reduced impact in the wake of recent comments from Fed’s Powell suggesting that the Fed has turned more aggressively hawkish since that meeting. Nonetheless, the details are likely to be firmly hawkish and market volatility can be expected in response to them. Forex Heat Map Coming up This Week Technical Analysis Our favourite chart this week is GBPCHF GBPCHF has been moving lower in a well-defined channel over the correction from 2021 highs. Recently price has been underpinned by support along the 1.2114 level. This has been a major support area since late last year. If price can breach below this level on a weekly closing basis, this would suggest a continuation of the downtrend towards the next big support at the 1.1687 level. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Economic Calendar – High Impact Another busy data week coming up, key highlights include: US, eurozone and UK PMI readings on Tuesday, US GDP on Thursday and US trade data on Friday. See the calendar below for full schedule.

Euro falls sharply The euro has reversed directions on Wednesday and is sharply lower. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0663, down 0.67% on the day. The euro was up 1.29% on Monday and extended its gains on Tuesday, hitting a 4-week high, after ECB President Lagarde announced that the ECB would raise interest rates in July. On the data front, there weren’t any surprises out of Germany. GDP in Q1 rose by 0.2% QoQ, as expected. Compared to Q4 of 2019, the quarter prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, growth was 0.9% smaller, which means that the economy is yet to fully recover from the Covid crisis. The war in Ukraine and Covid-19 have resulted in supply chain disruptions and accelerating inflation, which has hampered economic growth. German confidence remains in deep-freeze German GfK Consumer Sentiment came in at -26.0 in May, a slight improvement from the April reading of -26.6, which marked a record low. Not surprisingly, consumers put the blame for their deep pessimism on two key factors – the conflict in Ukraine and spiralling inflation. The GfK survey also found that consumer spending has weakened, as high costs for food and energy have reduced spending on non-essential items. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The ECB Financial Stability Review, published twice a year, echoed what German consumers are saying. The report bluntly stated that financial stability conditions have deteriorated in the eurozone, as the post-Covid recovery has been tested by higher inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The report noted that the economic outlook for the eurozone had weakened, with inflation and supply disruptions representing significant headwinds for the eurozone economy. Given this challenging economic landscape, the euro will be hard-pressed to keep pace with the US dollar. EUR/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.0736 and 1.0865 EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0648. The next support line is at 1.0519 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The Canadian dollar is drifting just above the 1.28 line, but that could change in the North American session, with the release of Canada’s retail sales for March. The headline figure is expected to jump to 1.4% MoM, after a negligible gain of 0.1% in April. Core retail sales is projected to come in at 2.0%, little changed from the previous reading of 2.1%. A stronger-than-expected reading would likely boost the Canadian dollar, while an underperforming release would raise questions about the recovery and could push the currency lower. FOMC minutes soothe market nerves The FOMC minutes, released on Wednesday, didn’t contain any surprises, which was just fine as far as the markets were concerned. Investors have become increasingly nervous over the spectre of a recession in the United States. Recent data is pointing to a possible slowdown, at the same time that the Federal Reserve has embarked on an aggressive rate-hike cycle which will slow the economy. With inflation still not showing signs of peaking, there have been calls from some Fed officials to deliver a super-super-size 75 bps hike. To the relief of the nervous markets, the minutes appeared to put to rest that drastic scenario, as the Fed signalled that it will hike by 50 bps in June and July, followed by a pause in September. This would allow the Fed to monitor the effects of the June and July hikes on the economy and whether inflation is finally easing. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM The US dollar showed modest gains after the minutes were released, but we are seeing limited movement across the majors today. The dollar index rose slightly to 102.07, but has retreated to 101.83, as resistance at the multi-year breakout line of 102. 35 held firm. There is support at 101.50 and 101.00. USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.2866 and 1.2955 USD/CAD has support at 1.2750 and 1.2661 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

The yuan has been losing 1.6% in the past two days amid fears of an economic slowdown. This is a solid move compared to how unexpected the bad news was. In our opinion, the appreciation of the last two days should be seen as a continuation of the trend that started at the beginning of April. At that time, the renminbi definitively went against the current and succumbed to the Dollar’s general appreciation, and this weakening accelerated sharply at the end of April. The renminbi recovered some losses from May 12th to 24th, but it was just a recharge for yuan bears. USDCNH - US Dollar To Chinese Yuan The depth of the retreat in the USDCNH coincided with a classic Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of the initial move. China’s slowdown leads to a loosening of monetary policy, and Xi Jinping’s worrying comments set up markets that could see more economic measures in the coming days or weeks. This is especially important for the Chinese leader as 2022 is an election year, and the authorities will therefore try to create as favourable a macroeconomic backdrop as possible. A weaker CNY could give the Chinese economy a helping hand to boost exports. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM   In addition, the fact that monetary policy in China and the US is heading in opposite directions leads to a weaker renminbi. According to the psychoanalysis, the USDCNH could now target levels around 7.15 - the highs for 2019 and 2020 - where the 161.8% level of the move mentioned above also passes and where the renminbi could reach mid-July. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Oil markets slumber Oil prices had another comatose session by their standards, barely rising from the day before. Nevertheless, both Brent crude and WTI have held on to all their recent gains, suggesting the weaker side is the upside in prices for now. While China slowdown fears are receding in the minds of traders, for now, fears persist around the increasing tightness of the US diesel market, and I suspect not ruling out export controls has unnerved international markets, and rightly so. I expect prices to remain firm for the rest of the week, with the global data calendar fairly light. Brent crude rose 0.60% to USD 114.35 overnight, where it remains in an equally quiet Asian session. WTI rose 0.40% to USD 110.70, adding just 20 cents to USD 110.90 a barrel in Asia. Brent crude has resistance at USD 115.00 and USD 116.00 today, with support at USD 112.00. A rally through USD 116.00 could set up a retest test of my medium-term resistance at USD 120.00. ​ WTI is taking comfort from the White House stance and is sitting in a USD 108.00 to USD 112.00 a barrel range. Nevertheless, a topside breakout by Brent crude will drag WTI higher as well, allowing a test of the USD 115.00 to USD 116.00 resistance zone. Gold weakens on US dollar strength Gold fell by 0.70% to USD 1853.25 an ounce overnight, retreating another 0.45% to USD 1845.00 an ounce in Asia. As I have touched on before, the true test of gold’s underlying strength will be maintaining gains in the face of a US dollar rally. The fall by gold over the last 24 hours in the face of modest US dollar strength does not fill me with confidence. Further US dollar strength could see gold face one of its ugly downside shakeouts. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Gold has nearby support at USD 1842.00, followed by USD 1836.00 an ounce. Failure sees the possibility of a mini-capitulation by longs that could reach as far as USD 1780.00 an ounce. On the topside, gold has resistance at USD 1870.00, followed by USD 1886.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

FOMC to stick to 50bps moves The FOMC Minutes, released overnight, settled a few nerves temporarily, signalling another couple of 50bps rate hikes in June and July before a pause in September. The dreaded 75bps hike threat was off the agenda and with some slowdowns in recent US data, notably in the housing market, it was enough to spur a relief rally of sorts in US equities and the US dollar. Once again, that is translating to an uneven response by Asian markets thanks to China nerves. Although Shanghai seems to be emerging from its covid zero restrictions at a faster pace, Chinese Premier Li warned of economic headwinds and that the economy, in some respects, is faring worse than in 2020. Bank Of Korea - Monetary Policy This morning, the Bank of Korea hiked policy rates by 0.25% as expected. There has been zero impact on either the Kospi or the Korean won, suggesting the move was well priced in already by markets. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Governor Orr was also on the wires today testifying before a parliamentary committee. Governor Orr was very hawkish and suggested that policy rates would need to remain elevated for an extended time to tame inflation. It’s a pity he didn’t think the same thing 9 months ago when he had rates at zero and was quantitatively easing into a clearly overheating economy. Once again, the New Zealand dollar has barely reacted and has come off its highs since yesterday’s 0.50% rate hike. That implies that it is a US dollar story and not a New Zealand dollar story. Either that or markets are concerned New Zealand is heading for a recession. Australia And RBA, Will Australian Dollar (AUD) Exchange Rate Change? Australian data this morning was mixed. Building Capital Expenditure for Q1 QoQ fell by 1.70%, while Plant Machinery Expenditure rose by 1.20% for the same period. To a certain extent, it is old news with markets more focused on the RBA policy trajectory, the new government’s fiscal policy, and whether the employment of housing markets start to show cracks. Singapore releases Industrial Production for April this afternoon with the YOY number for April expected to slow to 3.40%. A softer number will increase slowdown fears in the city-state and weigh on local equities. Thailand’s Balance of Trade should continue to show a post-covid rebound as its borders reopen for tourism. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM There are a number of holidays in Europe today for Ascension Day. Heavyweights Germany and France are closed, as is all of Scandinavia. Indonesia is closed today as well. That is likely to mute activity in Europe this afternoon with the data calendar understandably, strictly second-tier. In the US, Pending Home Sales will be closely watched given the weakness of recent existing and new home sales. That will overshadow second estimate of Q1 GDP and initial jobless claims. Another ugly number will put the recession word back on Wall Street’s lips and we could see another rush for the exit. Soft results from Gap and Dollar Tree could reinforce that sentiment. Overall, though, it looks as if today will be a day of consolidation for financial markets as they await fresh inputs, and ahead of personal income and expenditure data out of the US tomorrow evening. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Gold Price is holding above its 200-DMA in the $1,850 area and is back to nearly flat on the week. Traders are weighing the tailwinds of a softer USD and US yields versus strong US equities, as key Friday inflation data looms. How Fed And USD May Affect Gold? Gold Price (XAU/USD) is for now holding just above its 200-Day Moving Average at $1,839 and trading near the $1,850 level, though still with a slight downside bias on the day, despite Thursday’s worse-than-expected US GDP figures and Wednesday’s not as hawkish as feared Fed minutes release. Indeed, in wake of the weak data and modest paring back of hawkish Fed bets, the US dollar is a tad weaker and US yields are nudging lower, a combination that would normally be a tailwind for gold. Stronger Stocks - E.G. S&P 500 But US equities are rallying, with the S&P 500 last trading up around 1.4% on the day and eyeing a test of its 21-Day Moving Average for the first time since mid-April. On the week, the index is trading with gains of more than 3.0% and this appears to be weighing on the safe-haven precious metal. Traders are attributing stock market gains to weak GDP data reducing the need for aggressive Fed tightening and to strong earnings from a few US companies, including retail giant Macy’s. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Either way, the better tone to risk appetite is for now keeping XAU/USD on the back foot. Having been as high as the $1,870 level earlier in the week, spot gold’s gains on the week have been eroded back to only about 0.2% from around 1.2%. But the recent pullback towards the 200-DMA might prove a good opportunity for the gold bulls to add to long positions if they think that hawkish Fed bets will continue to be pared in the weeks ahead and, as a result, the buck and US yields continue softening. If it contributes to the strengthening narrative that US inflation has peaked, Friday’s US April Core PCE report could lead to a further reduction of Fed tightening bets and gold could well end the week back at highs in the $1,870 area. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

AUDUSD finally tests very strong resistance at 7135/55. Shorts need stops above 7175. First support at 7060/50 for some profit taking on shorts before the weekend with better support at 7020/10. Longs need stops below 7000. NZD/USD - New Zealand Dollar To US Dollar NZDUSD shorts at strong resistance at 6505/25 need stops above 6545. A weekly close above here is a buy signal for the start of next week. Shorts at strong resistance at 6505/25 target 6475 & 6450/40, perhaps as far as 6410/00. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk

Fed minutes released on Wednesday weren’t as hawkish as many investors feared: the Fed deciders mostly agreed that inflation is too high and labour market is too tight and that they should raise the rates by 50bps for the next two meetings. But, there was no sign that the Fed would go down the 75bp hike road. US Indices, EUR/USD And Gold Price US indices gained for the second day as the FOMC minutes helped improving the investor mood. Nvidia jumped. But the futures are slightly in the negative at the time of writing, as the rally in energy prices certainly throw a shadow on the latest optimism, keeping the inflation worries tight, as the soaring energy prices are one of the major responsible for the skyrocketing inflation. The barrel of US crude rallied above the $115 mark, and consolidates above this level this morning. The US dollar continues softening, the EURUSD tests 1.0750 offers, gold remains bid above the 200-dma though with a fading positive momentum. Turkish Lira (TRY) The lira, on the other remains, and should remain under decent negative pressure as the central bank insists keeping its policy rate at 14% level. And finally, Bitcoin slides below the $30K mark as the ECB points to financial stability concerns due to cryptocurrencies. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 Fed is not 'that' hawkish after all! 2:54 Market update 4:19 Dark clouds above our head 5:17 Citi says 'buy the dip' in European & EM stocks 7:14 I say 'be careful' with Turkish BIST & the lira 9:00 FX, commodity update: EUR, Gold and Bitcoin Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Market rates have drifted off their highs. It mostly reflects an easing in inflation expectations. But its also been helped by the severe risk-off seen in previous weeks which has pushed the bond market on to the ropes. The thing is, if we move to risk-on, that would provide room for real yields to resume their uptick, ultimately pressuring yields up again too Risk-off has morphed to some risk-on, correlating with a decompression of the dollar premium A key undercurrent of price action in the past few weeks has been the bursting of the dollar bubble, or at least a denting of it. We see this not just in the FX crosses and the dollar trade weighted index, but also in the key cross currency swap basis, where for example the EUR discount has tightened from in excess of -30bp to -26bp and it continues to edge lower. The dollar premium is shrinking. The dollar premium is shrinking This is helping to take some stress away from emerging markets. And the stall in the rise in real rates has helped the higher beta space generally. We also see an element of this in a tightening of the Treasury – Bund spread, which had topped out at over 200bp, and is now in the 170bp area. The fall in US Treasury yields in the meantime has correlated with falls in inflation expectations, which had been above 3% in the 10yr, and are now in the 2.6% area. All in all, a pronounced decompression of stress. Have we seen the turning point in rates? Maybe; but unlikely Given that, have we seen the turning point in rates? Maybe; there’s enough there to make the beginnings of a case. But still unlikely. The 5yr is still too cheap to the curve, the 2/5yr is showing resistance to flattening, and the rise in real rates is not necessarily over. This risk-on phase has a way to run yet, but it still smells like many of the above new trends can easily prove to be short-term ones, and we revert to a re-test higher in market rates. The US front end remains bubbly though, in part reflecting super strong tax revenues on a firm economy On the US front end, the cash going back to the Federal Reserve in the past week has been heavily impacted by Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) cash that has been parked on repo. That came to an end yesterday as that cash gets taken out of repo. It should allow for an easing in volumes going back to the Fed. But it still remains very elevated. Market repo continues to struggle Market repo continues to struggle to match the 80bp on offer at the Fed’s reverse repo window. The latest SOFR reading at 78bp is in fact an underestimate of the downside risks seen in the past week. Not only has chunks of GSE cash been a factor on repo, but less T-bill issuance has been a feature too. The US Treasury is chock-a-block full of tax revenues as the contemporaneous economy continues to boom. The US Treasury is chock-a-block full of tax revenue There may be credible talk of recession and slowdown in the air, but the front and centre economy remains hot. Hence the reduced need for the US Treasury to come in and issue bills, which typically can help to redress the imbalance between excess liquidity and collateral, helping to push repo rate higher. Balance sheet roll-off ahead will help, but realistically is may not be till 2023 before there is a material impact from this. A flurry of US data to watch ahead of a long US weekend Yesterday's US 7yr auction was stellar. Phenomenal actually. There was a huge indirect bid, indicative of foreign (including central bank) interest. A massive cover too. It helped to place something of a cap on the effort being made for yields to be tempted higher. Overall, this is indicative of an improved demand for fixed income. This always looks more impressive when the market is risk-on. It shows there are certainly buyers out there. With the key supply behind us, today sees a focus on the the US core PCE deflator. It has been one of the favourites of the Fed. It is currently running at 5.2% year-on-year, and the market is looking for an easing to 4.9% YoY. A sub-5% number would gel with the notion that inflation has peaked, and should help underpin the easing seen in inflation expectations in recent weeks. We'll also see US personal income and spending, but there should be more interest in the forward-looking University of Michigan indices for May. The market discount is for these to be stable, but the risk is for a surprise to the downside. The eurozone awaits a smattering of regional consumer confidence readings for May and retail sales reading for April. They are in fact quite important given the slowdown seen in eurozone data of late, but as is typical tend not to have a big market impact, barring an exceptional outcome. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The Dollar is continuing its retreat, which started precisely two weeks ago. Over this period, the Dollar Index has retreated 3.5% from the 20-year highs, losing about half of the gains from the last leg of the rally since late March. And now the big question for investors and traders is whether we see a correction before a new wave of US currency strength or whether the highs reached were a peak for years to come, as they were in 2017 and 2020. While the picture is mixed, there are more factors in favour that buying the Dollar at current levels is not good. Many of the major central banks have verbally (Bank of England and ECB) or already actually (RBNZ, Bank of Canada) come out at the pace of the Fed’s rate hikes. Consequently, short-term bond yield spreads, which had driven the demand for the Dollar in the previous few months, are no longer driving the prices. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM The latest Fed minutes have indicated a “flexible approach” - a hint of willingness to reduce the pace of rate hikes in the event of economic problems. Before the Dollar’s retreat, there was a peak in 10-year Treasury yields, which declined from 3.2% to 2.8%. Yields have been hovering around that level for the last three days, falling back to the 50-day moving average. A pullback below this line could be the first signal of a break in the uptrend. In that case, be prepared for increased pressure on the Dollar. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM China Elsewhere, there are rumours that China is cutting its more than trillion-euro investments in US Treasuries, following the Russian experience with blocking the Central Bank reserves. However, China may be reducing its holdings for another reason: capital outflows and pressure on the currency due to the economic slowdown. The current uncertainty in the US debt market and the currency market is likely to resolve in the next few days and has a high chance of sending important signals to all markets, from FX and debt to cryptocurrency and commodities, over the coming weeks or even months. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Gold (XAU/USD) opens early Monday in Asia bouncing off Friday's low of $1948, despite the slight rebound in US Dollar Index (DXY). Dollar May Be Back Rising   The easing of US Dollar Index from the downward pressure may be linked to the market's passivity following the US bank holiday today as well as the anticipation for faster rate hikes considering the latest inflation data. US Holidays This week's soft calendar and bank holiday in the US may restrict gold's price actions. However, headlines from Russia and China will be tracked closely for any impulsive catalyst, aside from the US Nonfarm Payroll report this Friday. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM

Jonny Hart speaks to APAC Senior Market Analyst Jeffrey Halley about news impacting the market and the week ahead. It’s June already and a blockbuster week for data releases around the world. First of all, we take a look back at last Friday’s impressive US equity close. Jeff discusses its drivers, its threats, and potentially, its longevity. Then it’s over to Asian equity markets today which are also enjoying a banner day. US Stocks And China   The US Friday session and also covid-zero developments in China over the weekend are driving “most” stock markets higher. Potential banana skin is looming though, with Brent crude rising above $120.00 a barrel in Asia today. Jeff looks at the oil market, what’s driving the price increase, and its potential impact on market sentiment this week. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Holidays And US Non-farm Payrolls There are a number of holidays this week, starting with US markets today, then Greater China is dragon boating on Friday, and the UK has two days off at the end of the week. Happy Jubilee Your Majesty. We discuss how holidays can impact markets. Finally, it’s a wrap of the heavy-duty data calendar across Asia and the US this week, culminating in the US Non-Farm Payrolls. Jeff highlights also, something that markets have been ignoring up until now, the start this week, of Federal Reserve Quantitative tightening. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Last week brought a rebound in stock markets, breaking a series of weeks of losses, along with a weakening USD and falling bond yields. The current one begins in a similar vein. Learn more on Conotoxia US Jobs Data What are the key events for financial markets and investors in the coming days? In the United States, the employment report may draw attention. In May, the US economy is expected by consensus to add 310,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.6 percent for the third consecutive month, remaining the lowest since February 2020. On the other hand, wages were expected to rise 0.4 percent, which is slightly higher expectations than the 0.3 percent increase in April. On an annual basis, however, it is expected to fall from 5.5 to 5.2 percent. Fed Members Speak Their Minds Several Fed officials will speak on monetary policy this week, and the market has already reduced the chances of US interest rate hikes. At present, investors seem to assume that they may amount to 2.5-2.75 percent in July 2023. As recently as at the beginning of the month, hikes were priced at 3.25-3.5 percent. Read next: Altcoins: Tezos (XTZ) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tezos Platform | FXMAG.COM Earnings - HP Stock And GameStop Stock Price May Fluctuate The earnings season is underway. Salesforce, Kirkland's, Ambarella, HP and GameStop are expected to announce quarterly results. So far, 97 percent of companies in the S&P 500 index have reported updated results, with 77 percent reporting an EPS surprise and 73 percent reporting a revenue beat, according to Factset data. Monetary Policy - Bank Of Canada (BoC) From a global monetary policy perspective, the Bank of Canada may raise its interest rate by 50 basis points, marking the third consecutive increase in rates in Canada. Also in focus: first-quarter GDP growth data for Canada. In the UK, on the other hand, final PMI estimates are likely to confirm a sharp slowdown in business activity growth in May amid intensifying inflationary pressures and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Eurozone Inflation - Germany, France, Italy, Spain In Europe, key Eurozone inflation reports will be released, including from Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The Eurozone annual inflation rate is expected to rise again in May, reaching a new record high of 7.7 percent, up from 7.4 percent in April. Unemployment figures will be published in the eurozone, as well as in Germany, Spain and Italy, while France, Italy, Switzerland and Turkey will report updated GDP for the first quarter. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

S&P 500 turned the corner, yields peaked for now, and dollar likewise. Risk-on sentiment is ruling the day, with value outperforming tech – but at least the latter is also recovering. Stocks though haven‘t turned the corner in earnest, no matter the gains they‘re still about to clock in. Enjoy the rally while it lasts (long entry is a matter of individual trade‘s risk reward ratio – more than a few good percent are still ahead before the fresh downleg strikes. Fed You can look forward for tomorrow‘s extensive analysis, where I‘ll examine the Fed and macroeconomics in the weeks and months ahead vs. the turnaround sequence discussed three weeks ago – unfolding like clockwork. Here‘s a quote from tomorrow‘s article: (…) I don‘t think we‘re looking at a fresh uptrend, there is still much stress (to be reflected in stock prices) in the consumer arena. VIX For now, the key question is the degree to which VIX calms down – would it be able to keep below 23-24 to extend the shelf life of this rally? And for how long would the lull in volatility last? I think the answer is a few short weeks, before it becomes obvious that the fundamentals haven‘t changed. The consumer remains in poor shape, inflation would remain stubbornly high (even as it had indeed peaked), and the credit default swaps for quite a few (consumer sensitive) companies are rising relentlessly, which isn‘t yet reflected in underlying stock prices. I‘m talking financials too – this broad stock market rally has more than a couple of percent higher to go before the weight pulls it back down, and earnings estimates get downgraded again. Stayed tuned for more, enjoy and profit along! Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Happy extended weekend. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

TL;DR It doesn’t make much sense to lend money for free. If Alice wants to borrow $10,000 from Bob, Bob will need a financial incentive to loan it to her. That incentive comes in the form of interest – a kind of fee that gets added on top of the amount Alice borrows. Interest rates profoundly impact the broader economy, as raising or lowering them greatly affects people’s behavior. Broadly speaking: Higher interest rates make it attractive to save money because banks pay you more for storing your money with them. It’s less attractive to borrow money because you need to pay higher amounts on the credit you take out. Lower interest rates make it attractive to borrow and spend money – your money doesn’t make much by sitting idle. What’s more, you don’t need to pay huge amounts on top of what you borrow. Learn more on Binance.com Introduction As we’ve seen in How Does the Economy Work?, credit plays a vital role in the global economy. In essence, it’s a lubricant for financial transactions – individuals can leverage capital that they don’t have available and repay it at a later date. Businesses can use credit to purchase resources, use those resources to turn a profit, then pay the lender. A consumer can take out a loan to purchase goods, then return the loan in smaller increments over time. Of course, there needs to be a financial incentive for a lender to offer credit in the first place. Often, they’ll charge interest. In this article, we’ll take a dive into interest rates and how they work.   What is an interest rate? Interest is a payment owed to a lender by a borrower. If Alice borrows money from Bob, Bob might say you can have this $10,000, but it comes with 5% interest. What that means is that Alice will need to pay back the original $10,000 (the principal) plus 5% of that sum by the end of the period. Her total repayment to Bob is, therefore, $10,500. So, an interest rate is a percentage of interest owed per period. If it’s 5% per year, then Alice would owe $10,500 in the first year. From there, you might have: a simple interest rate – subsequent years incur 5% of the principal or  a compounded interest rate – 5% of the $10,500 in the first year, then 5% of $10,500 + $525 = $11,025 in the second year, and so on.   Why are interest rates important? Unless you transact exclusively in cryptocurrencies, cash, and gold coins, interest rates affect you, like most others. Even if you somehow found a way to pay for everything in Dogecoin, you’d still feel their effects because of their significance within the economy. Take a commercial bank – their whole business model (fractional reserve banking) revolves around borrowing and lending money. When you deposit money, you’re acting as a lender. You receive interest from the bank because they lend your funds to other people. In contrast, when you borrow money, you pay interest to the bank. Commercial banks don’t have much flexibility when it comes to setting the interest rates – that’s up to entities called central banks. Think of the US Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China, or the Bank of England. Their job is to tinker with the economy to keep it healthy. One function they perform to these ends is raising or lowering interest rates. Think about it: if interest rates are high, then you’ll receive more interest for loaning your money. On the flip side, it’ll be more expensive for you to borrow, since you’ll owe more. Conversely, it isn’t very profitable to lend when interest rates are low, but it becomes attractive to borrow. Ultimately, these measures control the behavior of consumers. Lowering interest rates is generally done to stimulate spending in times when it has slowed, as it encourages individuals and businesses to borrow. Then, with more credit available, they’ll hopefully go and spend it. Lowering interest rates might be a good short-term move to rejuvenate the economy, but it also causes inflation. There’s more credit available, but the amount of resources remains the same. In other words, the demand for goods increases, but the supply doesn’t. Naturally, prices begin to rise until an equilibrium is reached. At that point, high interest rates can serve as a countermeasure. Setting them high cuts the amount of circulating credit, since everyone begins to repay their debts. Because banks offer generous rates at this stage, individuals will instead save their money to earn interest. With less demand for goods, inflation decreases – but economic growth slows.   ➟ Looking to get started with cryptocurrency? Buy Bitcoin on Binance!   What is a negative interest rate? Often, economists and pundits speak of negative interest rates. As you can imagine, these are sub-zero rates that require you to pay to lend money – or even to store it at a bank. By extension, it makes it costly for banks to lend. Indeed, it even makes it costly to save. This may seem like an insane concept. After all, the lender is the one assuming the risk that the borrower may not repay the loan. Why should they pay?  This is perhaps why negative interest rates are something of a last resort to fix struggling economies. The idea comes from a fear that individuals may prefer to hold onto their money during an economic downturn, preferring to wait until it recovers to engage in any economic activity.  When rates are negative, this behavior doesn’t make sense – borrowing and spending appear to be the most sensible choices. This is why negative interest rates are considered to be a valid measure by some, under extraordinary economic conditions.   Closing thoughts On the surface, interest rates appear to be a relatively straightforward concept to grasp.  Nevertheless, they’re an integral part of modern economies – as we’ve seen, adjusting them can fundamentally alter the behavior of individuals and businesses. This is why central banks take such a proactive role in using them to keep nations’ economies on track. Do you have more questions about interest rates and the economy? Check out our Q&A platform, Ask Academy, where the Binance community will answer your questions.

While our base case is that the Bank of Canada will hike by another 50bp today, the strong macro picture means that a 75bp move cannot be excluded. Elsewhere, data resilience and higher yields should lay the basis for a re-strengtheining of the dollar, and the contrast with a worsening growth picture in Europe may send EUR/USD back to 1.05 in June Source: Shutterstock   Thursday 2 June and Friday 3 June are national holidays in the UK. We will resume the publication of the FX Daily on Monday 6 June. USD: Finding fresh support The dollar has continued to find some support this morning, benefiting from a general sell-off in the bond market, the impact of the EU oil embargo on Russia, and better-than-expected US data (consumer confidence yesterday was a case in point). The past few days seem to have conveyed the message that the Fed’s tightening cycle is based on a sturdier growth story than Europe's (especially after the Russian oil embargo) and the speculation around a September Fed pause is being kept at bay for now. Ultimately, we think all this is laying the basis for a period of gradual re-strengthening in the dollar. Today, data will remain in focus in the US, as the ISM manufacturing and JOLTS job openings for May are released. On the Fed side, John Williams and the arch-hawk James Bullard are both scheduled to speak today, and markets will also keep an eye on regional trends emerging from the Fed’s Beige Book released this evening. All in all, we expect the dollar to find some consolidation and possibly inch higher against most G10 peers for the rest of the week, with the weak bond environment offering a short-term supporting driver (the yen is set to remain the main victim here) and US data - our economist expects another solid US payrolls reading on Friday - still supporting the Fed tightening story and offering a longer-term bullish USD argument. Some stabilisation in global sentiment may allow high-beta currencies – and especially oil-sensitive ones like Canada's dollar and Norway's krone - to find a floor, while other European currencies may remain on the back foot due to a worsening growth outlook in the region. DXY may advance to the 103.00 area in the run-up to the 15 June FOMC meeting. EUR: On track for a return to 1.05 EUR/USD is re-testing the 1.0700 support this morning after a marginal recovery late yesterday proved very temporary. Indeed, the common currency is discounting the re-assessment of the European economic outlook after the EU announced a ban on Russian oil. That news came in conjunction with evidence that inflationary pressures in the eurozone are still not easing, as eurozone-wide CPI figures for May jumped to 8.1% while the core rate advanced to 3.8% year-on-year. While high inflation is keeping the ECB tightening expectations supported, the euro – which is already embedding a good deal of monetary tightening – is struggling to find any solid bullish driver at the moment. In our view, this was a matter of time and we continue to target a return to the 1.0500 area in EUR/USD by the end of this month. Elsewhere in Europe, the Hungarian central bank raised its base rate by 50bp yesterday in line with market expectations, but didn't meet all expectations, including ours. Even the almost historically weak forint did not persuade the central bank to make a bolder move. We did get assurances that monetary policy tightening will continue, but at a slower pace regardless of market or economic conditions. Although the central bank tried to be as hawkish as possible in its communication, it was not enough for the market to reverse the forint's direction. The forint continues to be our least preferred currency at the moment, but on the other hand, still has the most potential to strengthen in the region. We see EUR/HUF around 390 in the short run with a possible quick move to 380 should one of the external factors (war, rule-of-law debate, etc.) show early signs of improvement, reducing the risk premium. GBP: Some weakness (but not a collapse) ahead The pound seems to have been caught in the crossfire of the EU-Russia oil embargo story, largely following other European currencies (except for NOK) lower. This has meant that EUR/GBP has remained tied to the 0.8500 level, which appears to be an anchor for the short term. Given a deteriorating growth outlook in the UK, we expect some GBP weakness ahead and see a move to 0.8600 in the coming weeks as likely. However, we do not see a sterling downtrend morphing into a collapse.   With UK markets closed for two days, expect reduced GBP volatility into the weekend. CAD: We expect 50bp by the BoC today, but 75bp is possible The Bank of Canada is set to raise interest rates for a third consecutive meeting today, and the Bank’s recent communication has strongly suggested we’ll see another 50bp hike. As discussed in our BoC preview, 50bp is also our base case scenario for today, given the strong economy (and an outlook helped by high commodity prices) and jobs market, as well as elevated inflation. Against such a macroeconomic backdrop, we don’t exclude a 75bp move: markets seem to attach a relatively high probability to this scenario given that 70bp are priced in ahead of today’s meeting. As we see a 50bp hike as more likely, there are some downside risks for CAD today, as markets may have to price some 10-20bp out of the CAD swap curve. That said, we think that the BoC will reiterate a very strong commitment to fighting inflation and allow markets to consolidate their bets on at least another 50bp hike in July and a terminal rate around 3.0%. Ultimately, this should put a floor under the loonie, which has been displaying some resilience against the USD rebound, and may not depreciate beyond the 1.2700-1.2750 area even if the 75bp bets have to be scaled back today. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Relevance up to 11:00 2022-06-11 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Interesting events are taking place around the USD/CAD pair. The Canadian dollar has been steadily strengthening for almost four weeks amid the strengthening of the oil market and the hawkish mood of the Bank of Canada. Since May 13, the loonie has risen by 500 points, reaching a two-month low (1.2516) on June 8. However, USD/CAD bears could not enter the area of the 24th figure. The day before yesterday, the pair turned 180 degrees and soared sharply, rising by more than 200 points in two days. This price spurt is primarily due to the strengthening of the US currency. The Canadian dollar could not hold back the onslaught of the dollar bulls, but there was no clear informational reason for the weakening of the loonie. Obviously, the greenback plays the role of the first fiddle in the USD/CAD pair, so the further prospects of the loonie depend on the behavior of the US currency.     Note that following the results of the June meeting, the Canadian regulator raised the interest rate by 50 basis points, thereby realizing the most expected scenario. But at the same time, the Bank of Canada maintained a hawkish attitude and announced further tightening of monetary policy. The rhetoric of the head of the Canadian central bank allowed the USD/CAD bears to increase pressure on the pair. In the text of the accompanying statement, the regulator indicated that in the second quarter, the country's economic growth "will be quite strong," given the steady consumer spending, as well as the strengthening of exports. Analyzing the results of the June meeting, most experts came to the conclusion that in July the regulator will also raise the interest rate by 50 basis points. On these rails of a fundamental nature, the loonie dropped to the bottom of the 25th figure. It should be noted here that the Canadian dollar is a worthy competitor to the US currency: the loonie often rose in price even against the background of a general strengthening of the greenback. In my opinion, the main reason for this stress resistance of the Canadian lies in the actions of the Bank of Canada. Recall that last year the Canadian regulator showed a combative character, outstripping even the US Federal Reserve in this regard. Firstly, the BOC began to reduce QE in the first half of last year (becoming the first of the G7 central banks to begin gradually curtailing anti-crisis measures). In October 2021, the regulator announced the early completion of the incentive program. As you know, the Fed members made a similar decision on the early curtailment of QE only a month later—at the November meeting. Then the Federal Reserve and the Canadian regulator, so to speak, went level, systematically tightening their rhetoric and monetary policy parameters. Central banks raised the interest rate in March and declared further steps in this direction. Therefore, for a long time, the loonie did not succumb to the onslaught of dollar bulls, using any weakening of the greenback in his favor. To date, the situation has changed somewhat. There has been increasing market speculation that the Fed will raise interest rates in 50-point increments at every meeting this year. Nearly 70% of economists surveyed by Reuters said the Fed would pause rate hikes in the first or even second quarter of next year. Some representatives of the Fed indirectly confirm these assumptions. In particular, Fed Board member Christopher Waller said earlier this week that he supports raising interest rates by 50 basis points "in the next few meetings." Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard also said that the regulator is not going to stop there, as "the number one priority is to reduce inflation." St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (who also has the right to vote this year) recently repeated his thesis, pointing out that the Fed needs several 50-point rate hikes. The Bank of Canada is currently unable to demonstrate such decisiveness: the event horizon here is limited to the July meeting, at which the central bank is likely to raise rates by 50 points. However, future prospects are still rather vague. Thus, the USD/CAD pair was able to turn 180 degrees mainly due to the strengthening of the hawkish mood regarding the Fed's next steps. The Canadian regulator has already said its word, while the American central bank still retains a certain intrigue. The US dollar retains the potential for its further strengthening. From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD pair is currently testing the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe (1.2720). Most likely, traders will overcome this price barrier, given the strength of the upward movement. The next upward target is 1.2790, which is the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe. Overcoming this target will open the way for USD/CAD buyers to the area of the 28th figure.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313102

The Canadian dollar has extended its losses today. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2743, up 0.35% on the day. Thursday saw the US dollar gives its Canadian cousin a spanking, as USD/CAD jumped 1.13%, its highest daily gain this year. A rise in US Treasury yields helped boost the US dollar, as the 10-year yield remains above 3%. As well, US unemployment claims disappointed, rising to 229 thousand. This was higher than the previous release of 202 thousand and above the estimate of 210 thousand. The rise in claims was not massive, but nonetheless has fed into the market’s nervousness over the US economy, and the result was a drop in risk appetite which sent the Canadian dollar tumbling lower. It could be a busy end to the trading week, with Canada’s employment report and US inflation on today’s schedule. Canada’s job numbers for May are expected to be solid – the economy is projected to have created 30.0 thousand new jobs, up from 15.3 thousand in April. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 5.2%. All eyes on US inflation The highlight of the week will be US inflation for May. Headline inflation is expected at 8.3% (unchanged), while Core CPI is forecast to fall to 5.9%, down from 6.2%. If inflation does indeed drop, there will likely be voices proclaiming that the long-sought inflation peak is finally here. It would, however, be premature to assume that inflation is on a downswing based on one reading alone. Still, there is plenty of anticipation around the inflation release, such that it could be a binary outcome for USD/CAD – if inflation outperforms, Fed hiking expectations will rise. If, however, inflation drops, we could see a move to sell US dollars. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2703. Above, there is resistance at 1.2812 There is support at 1.2628 and 1.2519   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Markets eye Canadian job report, US inflation - MarketPulseMarketPulse

EURUSD recovery from the May low of 1.0360/50 leaves a potential double bottom buy signal although on Friday we made a high for the day at 1.0545/55. Above here today retests Thursday's high at 1.0660/62 then last week's high at 1.0640/42. Minor support at 1.0460/50. Below 1.0330 risks a retest of the double bottom low at 1.0360/50. Longs need stops below 1.0325. USDCAD clearly at the upper end of the 1 year range as we retest the May high at 1.3060/80. This will be key to direction for this week. Probably worth trying a short with stop above 1.3100. A break higher however targets 1.3160/70 & 1.3240/60. Shorts at 1.3060/80 target 1.3030/20 & 1.3000/1.2990. Expected good support at 1.2955/35 for today. Dax looks likely we can hold important longer term support at 13250/150 for a bounce to 13360/380 then 13500 & resistance at 13600/650. We have a gap to fill at 13730/750. A break above here is anther buy signal. A break below 12950 is a very important medium term sell signal initially targeting 12700/600 before a retest of the March low at 12450/425. FTSE broke lower to the next target of 7000/6990 last week, holding just 56 ticks above very strong support at 6940/10. Longs here this week need stops below 6870. The bounce on Friday held 8 ticks from strong resistance at 7120/40. Shorts need stops above 7160. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 7240/50, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 7300/20. To receive this report every morning please subscribe at our website www.daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk

When we hit 2% on the US 10yr we asked what next, and laid out a path to 3%. On hitting 3% we asked the same, and postulated the possiblilty of approaching 4%. A little over a week ago we hit 3.5%. Various signs suggest that could be the peak. That does not mean we can't get back there, as real rates are still too low and will rise. But if that was not it, we're not far off Real rates are still too low and will rise Real rates should still rise, and might just take the 10yr Treasury yield back towards the previous high We are at a point now where the peak seen at 3.5% in the 10yr US Treasury yield a little over a week ago is seeming more and more like a turning point. That does not mean we can’t get back there. But it does mean that indicators are pointing to a scenario where a dramatic break above that level is looking less likely. Nothing is impossible, but here’s the logic: First, the 5yr has been quietly decompressing on the curve over the past few days. It is now trading at 8.5bp cheap to an interpolated line between the 2yr and the 10yr, and so still in line with a bond bear market. But it is far less cheap than it was (15bp a few weeks back), and it looks like it's on a journey of decompression. It's an early call, but we're paying close attention to the journey it looks to be on. As it decompresses it typically signals a change in the cycle. Now that could change, for example should we see a surprisingly big inflation number and/or an outsized payrolls outcome in the coming weeks. But based on the developing discount, market expectations are pushing against that. Second, the 10yr breakeven inflation rate has fallen to 2.5%. That was at 3% only a month or so ago. That’s a big change in expectations. The real yield is still too low at 60bp. But even if that rises to the 1% area that we target, that would bring the 10yr Treasury yield back up to its previous high, without taking it out. For it to break above, inflation expectations would need to rise as well. It could happen of course. But then again that’s not the journey that inflation expectations are currently on. In fact, inflation expectations could even fall, muting the impact of higher real yields. As we’ve said countless times, turning points are difficult to predict, and we’ve identified the third quarter as when the turning point is likely to be. We still think we will have seen one by then, but we’d also note that it might just be from a level not too dissimilar from the 3.5% area seen on the 10yr a little over a week ago.  Watch the system risk. It's fine for now, but there are warning signs At the same time, it's important to note that price action in the past few days has been remarkable. In fact, it was astonishing in the week or so before that when 20bp moves in both directions were occurring. The move from 3.5% down to 3.1% in the 10yr must be contextualised against that, in the sense that we could journey back up again should we enter a period of "risk-on" in the weeks ahead, or on upsize data surprises. For the latter, we’d watch June payrolls on Friday week, and June CPI the following Thursday. And a final point on the system. It’s holding up fine here. Forget the elevation in the Ted spread (3mth bills spread to Libor), as that reflects a collapse in bills yields, in turn reflective of a repo market that is being strained to the downside (SOFR now at 6bp below the Fed funds floor as a record USD $2.3tr goes into the Fed's reverse repo window at 1.55%). More importantly, banks are printing 3mth commercial paper at just 15bp over the risk-free rate. This is still quite tight, compared to a long-term average at around 25bp. Hence the system is holding up quite well. But credit spreads are at stressed levels, signaling an elevation in default rates ahead of us, which is typical of recessionary periods. That in turn will result in a rise in system pressure, elevating bank funding rates relative to the risk-free rate. The market discount is no doubt factoring this, as is the Fed, which needs to get the tightening in before the system creaks. Another reason to suggest we're on the eve of a cycle change. Read this article on THINK TagsRates Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Senior Market Analyst Jeffrey Halley talks about news impacting the market and the week ahead. In this week’s podcast, the Euro is approaching parity with the US Dollar for the first time in decades. We discuss the move, the reasons behind it, and what lies ahead for the single currency. But first, it is a quick look at Asian markets where covid-19 concerns in China are weighing on sentiment. Then it is the British Pound and UK data and of course, British politics. From there it is the Bank of England before getting our teeth stuck into US inflation data due tomorrow. We ponder its implications for the market and why it matters to the Fed.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Market Insights Podcast (Episode 351) - MarketPulseMarketPulse

GBPUSD sees limited bounce The pound finds support from better-than-expected GDP growth in May. The pair is having a hard time holding onto its rally attempts. Bearish sentiment means that rebounds have rather been opportunities for trend followers to sell into strength. The RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area caught some buyers’ attention. But strong selling could be expected between the psychological level of 1.2000 and 1.2050. 1.1810 is a fresh support and its breach could trigger a new round of liquidation towards 1.1600. USDCAD hits resistance The Canadian dollar soared after the Bank of Canada surprised the market with a 1% hike. The greenback consolidated its gains after it broke above June’s peak at 1.3070. 1.2940 at the base of a previous bullish breakout has offered some support, though its retest is a sign of hesitation. 1.3050 is the last hurdle ahead and a bullish breakout may attract momentum buyers and resume the uptrend. On the downside, a fall below 1.2940 may cast doubt on the bulls’ commitment and deepen the correction to 1.2840. XAUUSD attempts to rebound Gold recouped some losses after the US dollar bulls took profit following inflation data in June. The price action has struggled to stay above September 2021’s lows at 1723. A bullish RSI divergence showed a slowdown in the sell-off. A rally above 1750 would act as confirmation and prompt sellers to cover their bets, paving the way for an extended recovery. Then 1805 along the 30-day moving average could be within reach. A drop below 1710 may attract more bears and send the metal to August 2021’s lows near 1682.

The Canadian dollar has posted sharp losses on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3132, up 1.18%. BoC shocks with 100bp salvo The Bank of Canada has been in an aggressive mode, but nobody was expecting the massive 100bp hike on Wednesday, the largest rate increase in 24 years. The markets had priced in a 75bp move, and the Canadian dollar responded with modest gains. The cash rate now stands at 2.5%. The massive increase shows that the BoC is pulling out all the stops in order to curb hot inflation, which has hit 7.7%, a 39-year high. The BoC is well aware that over-tightening could tip the economy into a recession, but this is the price to pay to ensure that inflation does not become entrenched through wage gains and price increases. Consumers and businesses are expecting high inflation to persist, and this can become a self-fulfilling prophesy and lead to even higher inflation. Along with the huge rate hike, the BoC had some grim news. The central bank raised its inflation forecast, which is expected to hit 8 per cent in the second and third quarters of this year. Growth is forecast to fall to 3.5% this year, down from 4.2% previously. The Canadian dollar wasn’t able to hold onto yesterday’s gains and has dropped sharply today. Investors remain risk-averse after the US inflation report, as headline CPI jumped to 9.1% YoY, up from 8.8%. Core CPI dropped a notch from 6.0% to 5.9% but this didn’t ease the disappointment that the inflation peak remains as elusive as ever. The inflation report has dramatically elevated the likelihood of a massive 100bp, which according to the CME’s FedWatch stands at 84% – less than a week ago, the likelihood of a 100bp move was a mere 7%. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD has broken above resistance at 1.3068 and 1.3129. Above, there is resistance at 1.3199 There is support at 1.2953 and 1.2822 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canadian dollar slides post-BoC - MarketPulseMarketPulse

USD/CAD is trading quietly at the 130.00 line, with a busy day ahead. The Bank of Canada holds its rate meeting and the US posts the June inflation report. Bank of Canada could deliver 75bp salvo The Bank of Canada is expected to press the pedal to the gas later today, with the markets expecting a supersize 75bp hike. This would bring the cash rate to 2.25%. Similar to the Fed, the BoC is showing that it can be aggressive with its rate policy as it pulls out all the steps to curb enemy number one, which is runaway inflation. In May, Canada’s inflation rate rose to 7.7%, a four-decade high. Inflationary pressures have been broad-based, raising fears of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. A massive 75bp move by the BoC should give a boost to the Canadian dollar, but the gains could be modest if the market has fully priced in the move. As well, today’s US inflation report could affect the direction of USD/CAD in the North American session. In the US, the June inflation report is being eagerly anticipated by the financial markets. Headline inflation is expected to rise to 8.8% YoY, up from 8.6% in May. Core CPI is expected to ease to 5.8%, down from 6.0%. If the numbers are higher than expected, market reaction will be negative and the dollar should get a boost. Conversely, if inflation is lower than expected, it will raise hopes that inflation has peaked, raising risk sentiment and likely pushing the dollar lower. The inflation report could play an important role in Fed decision-making ahead of the July 27th rate meeting. The Fed is widely expected to hike by 75bp at the meeting, but could consider a smaller hike if inflation is weaker than expected, which would make the US dollar less attractive to investors. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD has support at 1.2953 and 1.2822 There is resistance at 1.3068 and 1.3199   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canadian dollar eyes BoC, US inflation - MarketPulseMarketPulse

US nonfarm payrolls expected to slow to 250K It’s a busy day in both Canada and the US, with both countries releasing July employment reports. It wasn’t so long ago that US nonfarm payrolls was eagerly anticipated and was the most important event of the week. The NFP often had a significant impact on the movement of the US dollar. That has changed in the new economic landscape of red-hot inflation and central banks raising interest rates practically every month. The NFP has been overshadowed as the media breathlessly reports new inflation records and the threat of a recession. Still, the NFP remains an important indicator and a surprise reading can still shake up the markets. The July NFP is expected at 250 thousand, following a surprisingly strong June release of 372 thousand. A weak reading will raise concerns about a recession, which would likely see US yields and the US dollar fall. Conversely, a stronger than expected number would probably boost yields and the US dollar, as a stronger labour market would allow the Fed to remain hawkish regarding rate policy. The markets have priced in an inflation peak and the Fed winding up its rate-tightening cycle, which has sent the US dollar on a hasty retreat. Fed policy makers have been pushing back, sending out the message this week that there are more large hikes on the way as inflation is not yet under control. A strong NFP reading would reinforce the Fed’s message and provide some support for the US dollar. Canada will also publish employment data later today. The economy is expected to have created 20.0 thousand jobs in July, after a decline of 43.2 thousand in May. A stronger-than-expected reading should boost the Canadian dollar, while an underperformance could result in the currency losing ground. As well, Canada releases Ivey PMI. The indicator slumped to 62.2 in June, down from 72.0, and is expected to slow to 60.3. A surprise reading could have an impact on the direction of USD/CAD in the North American session. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is putting pressure on 1.2899. Above, there is resistance at 1.3002 USD/CAD has support at 1.2741 and 1.2686 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. USD/CAD eyes Canada, US job reports - MarketPulseMarketPulse

  Summary:  The week’s focus will be on the U.S. CPI scheduled to release on Wednesday. The strong employment report in the U.S. last Friday casted doubts about the aggressive pricing of rate cuts next year. All eyes will be on the CPI data to gauge how the tug of war between Fed's inflation fighting and the market's recession fear evolves. In Asia, the focus will be the July aggregate financing and credit data from China.   Can the US CPI release boost the USD? The highly-watched US inflation data is on the radar in the week ahead, and the debate on inflation peaking vs. higher-for-longer will be revived. Meanwhile, the Fed has recently stayed away from providing forward guidance, which has now made all the data points ahead of the September 21 FOMC meeting a lot more important to predict the path of Fed rates from here. Bloomberg consensus expects inflation to slow down from 9.1% YoY in June to 8.8% YoY last month, but it will be more important to think about how fast inflation can decelerate from here, and how low it can go. We also get a preliminary print of the August University of Michigan sentiment this week, which may continue to signal the pain inflicted on the consumer from the escalating price pressures. That will also include a gauge of inflation expectations for one year, as well as the longer term. Fed speakers to continue to push back on market’s easing expectations for next year More Fed speaker will be on the wires this week, starting with Chicago President Charles Evans who discusses the economy and monetary policy. Evans is not a voter this year, but he votes in 2023. He said last week a 50bps rate hike is a reasonable assessment for the September meeting, but 75bps is a possibility too if inflation does not improve. He expects 25bps from there on until Q2 2023 and sees a policy rate between 3.75-4% in 2023, which is in line with Fed’s median view of 3.8% for 2023, but above the 2.9% that the market is currently pricing in. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, also not a voting member this year, is also up again this week after his comment last week that it is unlikely that Fed will cut rates next year. Mary Daly, another usually dovish Fed President, also returns this week after pushing back on easing expectations last week. China’s PPI inflation is set to ease while CPI is expected to pick up in July The median forecasts form economists being surveyed by Bloomberg are 4.9% (vs June: 6.1%) for PPI and 2.9% (vs 2.5% for June.  The higher CPI forecast is mainly a result of a surge in pork prices by 35% in July from June.  On the other hand, PPI is expected to continue its recent trend of deceleration due to a low base and fall in material prices.  The convergence of the gap between PPI and CPI is likely to benefit downstream manufacturing industries. Aggregate financing in China is scheduled to release between Aug 9 and 15 As new home sales decelerated during the month, mortgage loan growth was likely to be weak in July.  Bond issuance may come in lower in the July data versus June when local governments rushed to issue infrastructure special bonds.  Local governments were told to use up all their issuance quotas by the end of June.  Part of these weaknesses in the month of July may be offset by a rise in bank lending to support infrastructure construction.  Japan’s eco data will show the impact of the latest virus wave Japan’s July data will begin to show the fresh highs we have seen recently in Covid-19 cases, which are now reaching over a million per week. The Eco Watchers Survey for July will be due today, and likely to show deteriorating current conditions and expectations index. July producer prices are also due in the week, and will show some easing due to the base effects. However, underlying pressures remain amid the higher import costs due to the weaker yen, and consumer prices could continue to be pressured higher as well as firms pass on these rising costs. Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week Monday Aug 8 U.S.: New York Fed survey of consumer expectations Tuesday Aug 9U.S.: Unit Labor costs (Q2) & Nonfarm productivityPhilippines: GDP (Q2)Malaysia: Industrial production (Jun) Wednesday Aug 10U.S.: CPI (Jul)Japan: PPI (Jul)China: CPI (Jul) & PPI (Jul)Germany: CPI (Jul)Italy: CPI (Jul) Thailand: Bank of Thailand policy meeting Thursday Aug 11U.S:. Initial & continuous jobless claimsU.S.: PPI (Jul)Singapore: GDP (Q2, final) Friday Aug 12U.S.: U of Michigan consumer sentiment (Aug) & 5-10yr Inflation expectationFrance: CPI (Jul, final)U.K.: GDP (Q2)U.K.: Industrial production (Jun)Malaysia: GDP (Q2)India: CPI (Jul)India: Industrial production (Jun) Sunday Aug 9-15China: Aggregate financing (Jul) Key company earnings releases this week Monday Aug 8 BioNTech SE (BNTX:xnas), AIG (AIG:xnys), Tyson Foods (TSN:xnys), Suncorp (SUN:xasx), China Unicom (00762:xhkg) Tuesday Aug 9Coinbase (COIN:xnas), Warner (WMG:xnas), REA (REA:xasx), China Tower (00788:xhkg), Flat Glass (06865:xhkg)Wednesday Aug 10Walt Disney (DIS:xnys), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA:xasx), Vestas Wind (VWS:xcse), Techtronic (00669:xhkg), Wharf (00004:xhkg), Lenovo (00992:xhkg) Thursday Aug 11NIO (NIO:xnas), Cardinal Health (CAH:xnys), Capitaland (9CI:xses), Telstra (TLS:xasx), QBE Insurance (QBE:xasx), Siemens (SIE:xetr), Deutsche Telekon (DTE:xetr), Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG:xetr), RWE (RWE:xetr), China Mobile (00941:xhkg), SMIC (00981:xhkg), Li Ning (02331:xhkg)Friday Aug 12   Zijin Mining (02899:xhkg), Galaxy (00027:xhkg), Sands (01928:xhkg) Source: Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  Equity markets were churned by the July US jobs report on Friday, first falling sharply as treasury yields jolted higher on the day, but later rallying back to close the day only modestly lower. The US yield curve is about 10 basis points from its most dramatic inversion since 1982 as the market eyes an incoming recession despite the strong US jobs data and July ISM Services data last week. This week’s chief data focus is the Wednesday US July CPI data release.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I). US equity markets saw a very choppy session on Friday as interest-rate sensitive growth stocks dipped sharply on the strong July US jobs report. The broader market recovered most of the lost ground intra-day, but performance across themes was very mixed, with our Energy Storage basket the best performer among our “theme baskets”, likely on the passage of the climate bill by the US Senate (more below). Earnings season is winding down for the quarter, but a few prominent names are set to report this week, including Walt Disney on Wednesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Alibaba (09988:xhkg) -4%, Tencent (00700:xhkg) -2% and Meituan (03690:xhkg) -2% dragged the Hang Seng Index 0.8% lower.  Semiconductors names retraced lower after three days of outperformance, SMIC (00981:xhkg) -2%.  Cathay Pacific (00293:xhkg) claimed 2% following Hong Kong’s announcement of cutting inbound travelers’ hotel quarantine to 3 days from 7 days.  In the mainland, the lockdown of Hainan, a southern resort island, triggered some buying of traditional Chinese medicine and Covid-treatment related names. CSI300 was flat in midday.  USD pairs after the strong US jobs data Friday. The USD was jolted higher by the strong July jobs report on Friday, taking EURUSD, for example, sharply back lower after its attempt the prior day to push up toward 1.0250+ resistance. That pair has traded in an impossibly constricted range for nearly three weeks between 1.0100 and 1.0300, perhaps waiting for a more determined signal from risk sentiment or the longer end of the US yield curve for a sustained directional move. The action is similar elsewhere, save for USDJPY, which has traded in a wider range on the swings in treasury yields and heavy positioning. The jobs data drove a sharp rally from 133.00 before the Friday US jobs data to close the day above 135.00. The 61.8% retracement of the sell-off from the 139.39 to comes in a 135.91. Gold reversed lower on Friday ... after the strong US job report brought the risk of another 75 basis-point rate hike back on the table. During the past couple of weeks, the metal sector, both precious and industrial, has managed to recoup some of the steep losses seen in recent months. However, investor participation remains weak with total holdings in bullion-backed ETFs seeing continued declines while speculators in the futures market holds the smallest long exposure since early 2019. Both signs that the market still believe central banks will be successful in bringing inflation under control without causing too much damage to the economic outlook. Resistance at $1795 and support at $1752. An attempted China-led recovery in industrial metals will be watched closely by silver which continues to find resistance at the 50-day moving average, today at $20.33. Crude oil steadying near six-month low (OILUKOCT22 & OILUSSEP22). Brent crude oil has started the week trading around $95/b while WTI remains below $90/b driven by expectations for softer demand into the autumn months and a general economic slowdown concern. Key crude oil spread differentials have narrowed in recent weeks, suggesting less tightness in the market while refinery margins have tumbled from the record levels seen in June. Overall, worries about the supply outlook from major producers are likely to keep prices supported at or near current levels. With the peak holiday season upon us liquidity will remain low, thereby raising the prospect of outsized market reactions to the news. Focus this week on monthly oil market reports from the EIA tomorrow followed by OPEC and the IEA on Thursday. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT) The July employment report was exceptionally strong with payroll, unemployment rate and hourly earnings all surprising to the upside and jolted US treasury yields sharply higher right after the data hit the wires.  The front-end sold off the most as 2-year yield soared 18 basis points to 3.23%. 10-year yields climbed 13 basis points to 2.83.  The 2-10 year yield curve inverted further inverted to negative 40 basis points. The front-end treasury curve and money market rates have repriced the September FOMC with a likely 75 basis point hike.   What is going on? US Senate passes large tax and spending bill on climate, health care and taxes. The original bill discussed all year was on the $3 trillion scale, but was too large for centrist Democrats, who helped to whittle down the bill to some $370 billion on new climate-related spending initiatives, new measures that allow the US government to negotiate with drug-makers on pricing, and 15% minimum tax on large corporations, and a 1% tax on stock buybacks. Among the climate-related initiatives are $10 billion in investment tax credits for manufacturers who build EV-production or renewable energy-production facilities, and tax credits of up to $7,500 for EV purchases and even $4,000 for the buying of used EV’s. The House will have to pass the bill and President Biden will then have to sign it for the bill to become law. A 75-basis point hike back to the table for the September FOMC following Friday’s job data. The nonfarm payroll report surprised to the upside and showed that the U.S. added 525k jobs in July, more than double the 250K consensus while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in July, the lowest level since 1965.  Average hourly earnings rose 0.5% in July, above market expectation of 0.3% and June average hourly earnings were revised up 0.1 percentage point to 0.44%.  The strong hourly earnings data rebuts the peak inflation thesis and points to upside risks in inflation. Over the weekend, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated the Fed’s duty to bring inflation down to the 2% target and said that “similarly-sized increases should be on the table until…inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way.” China’s trade surplus hit a record $101 billion last month... ... as exports grew a surprisingly robust 18% YoY. The data showed how exports have given a much-needed boost to an economy currently struggling with weak domestic demand amid a weak property sector and China’s zero Covid tolerance causing continued lockdowns. The jump in exports was broadly based: +18.5% with Japan, 32% with ASEAN, +22.9% with the EU and +10.9% with the US. In commodities, crude oil imports rose while soybeans, copper and natural gas declined on a monthly basis. France approved a €20bn inflation relief package The main measures are : an increase in pensions and welfare payments by 4 % (this is still lower than inflation, however), a cap on rent increases at 3.5 %, pay rise of 3.5 % for civil servants, private companies will be encouraged to offer employees an annual tax-free bonus of up to €6,000, raised from a previous limit of €1,000 and the state-funded fuel price rebate worth 18 cents a liter will be increased to 30 cents in September and October. In addition, French lawmakers approved an updated budget to pay for the renationalisation of the utility company EDF. Emerging markets update On Friday, the Reserve Bank of India hiked its repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.4 %. Expect more hikes to come. But the pace of tightening may be diminishing as inflation looks set to fall. There have been several signs indicating that inflation will likely moderate in the short-term: gasoline prices have been lowered by the state petroleum companies and global agricultural prices are much lower than a few months ago. In Egypt, the country’s funding problem is becoming more acute. By end-2023, the country will need to pay $41b covering both the current account deficit and maturing debt. International reserves can only partially cover these (currently standing at $33b). There are no real other sources of financing. Only a currency devaluation could be helpful. This would cut the trade deficit (making exports more competitive and imports more expensive). On the downside, it is likely to increase inflation. However, there is certainly no better option. What are we watching next? The U.S. July CPI report is out on Wednesday This should be a low energy report (due to the recent decrease in energy prices), but a strong upside surprise could generate a considerable reaction. The economist consensus looks for headline and core CPI to increase by 0.1 % month-over-month and 0.6 %, respectively. The retracement in energy prices should provide some relief, at least at the headline level. The first estimate of the U.S July PPI report is out on Thursday. Earnings to watch Q2 earnings have jumped to a new all-time high in the MSCI World Index highlighting how inflation is lifting all boats. The energy sector is the big winner with earnings jumping 279% y/y due to surging oil and gas prices. This week, the pace of earnings releases is set to slow, but the list below highlights the most important earnings to track. The names in bold are those that can move sentiment overall or in the company’s respective industry. Monday: Barrick Gold, Siemens Energy, Nippon Telegraph & Telephone, SoftBank Group, Tokyo Electron, Dominion Energy, BioNTech, AIG, Tyson Foods, Palantir Technologies, Take-Two Interactive Tuesday: Alcon, Globalfoundries, Roblox, Trade Desk, Coinbase Global, Akamai Technologies, Plug Power, Unity Wednesday: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Vestas Wind Systems, Genmab, E.ON, Honda Motor, Prudential, Aviva, Walt Disney, Coupang, Illumina Thursday: KBC Group, Brookfield Asset Management, Orsted, Novozymes, Siemens, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, China Mobile, Antofagasta, Zurich Insurance Group, NIO, Rivian Automotive Friday: Flutter Entertainment, Baidu Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Switzerland Weekly SNB Sight Deposits 0830 – Eurozone Aug. Sentix Investor Confidence 0030 – Australia Aug. Westpac Consumer Confidence 0030 – Australia Jul. NAB Business Conditions/Confidence Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – August 8, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

A relatively slow start to the week as investors continue to digest Friday’s jobs report and what it means for financial markets just as some optimism was returning. The report itself was strong almost across the board, with participation being the only outlier, but Fed officials will not have been quite so enthused which makes it a tough one for investors to get too excited about. On the one hand, it strengthens the argument that the economy is not really experiencing a recession as the labour market is simply too strong. On the other, it’s also extremely tight and wages are continuing to rise at a fast rate which will make the task of fighting inflation that much harder. With another 75 basis point rate hike next month now the favoured outcome, although a lot can change in that time, it could be a nervy couple of days for investors ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report. It turns out the shift to data-dependency isn’t all it was cracked up to be. Another record Chinese trade surplus but also more lockdowns It’s a relatively quiet day, and the economic calendar continues to look very thin. How traders continue to respond to Friday’s report will be key in how we start the week. Asia is off to a mildly positive start but it’s nothing to write home about. Cities on the Chinese resort island of Hainan have been placed in lockdown following another Covid outbreak, reminding investors once more of the country’s commitment to its zero-Covid policy at all costs. At the same time, Hong Kong has sought to appease residents and the business community by cutting quarantine periods from seven days to three. While still very restrictive compared to much of the world at this point, it was a bolder move than anticipated and highlighted the pressure to return to normal life. Chinese trade data highlighted the struggles of the domestic economy, with imports rising 2.3% annually last month while exports remained surprisingly strong up 18%, delivering another record trade surplus. The numbers aren’t expected to remain quite so favourable in the months ahead as reopening momentum fades, leaving the import numbers a concern. A swift recovery Sentiment across the markets looks a little fragile this morning and yet crypto appears to have shrugged off Friday’s shock much more quickly. Up more than 3% this morning and climbing once more with its sights set on USD 25,000 it seems. The momentum indicators will be fascinating here as the recovery appeared to be losing steam during the last ascent in late July. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Cautious post-jobs report - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Softer-than-expected US price data this week has lifted risk assets around the world, especially in the emerging market space. The highlight of today's relatively quiet session will be US August consumer sentiment data, which is expected to pick up after the big drop in gasoline prices. This should be good for US growth and the dollar US gasoline has fallen from $5/gallon to $4 over the last month USD: Rising consumer confidence should be good news all round Softer-than-expected US July price data this week (both CPI and PPI) have been good news for risk assets around the world. Investors have read it as reducing the Fed's urgency to tighten policy. That said, Fed rhetoric has been consistent all week. Namely, the policy rate is heading toward 3.25/3.50% later this year (roughly priced by the markets) and then possibly 4% next year (not priced).   The latest US consumer sentiment readings from the University of Michigan – out today – will feed into this story. James Knightley looks for an upside surprise in consumer sentiment after US gasoline's fall to $4 from $5/gallon over the last month. We also get fresh inflation expectations data. Here the 5-10 year expectations peaked at 3.10% earlier this summer, were 2.9% in July and today are expected to fall to 2.8%.  How will markets read the data? A drop in inflation expectations may suggest the Fed can be more relaxed on inflation. But there are no signs of that coming through in its rhetoric. Instead, the bigger impact may be the bounce in consumer sentiment, reduced fears of a 2023 recession, and the pricing out of some of the 50bp of easing expected in 2H23. This should be a dollar-positive development. As we discussed yesterday, we like the dollar against the low yielders (euro and yen), but feel that declining levels of volatility will see renewed interest in the carry trade. Yesterday, we picked out long MXN/JPY as a pair that could rally in this environment. Mexico's central bank Banxico did hike 75bp yesterday to 8.50% and even though it omitted language talking about 'more forceful' rate hikes in the future, we think Banxico will match the Fed hike-for-hike. 6.80 remains our target for MXN/JPY. Heavily weighted to the low yielders, DXY should be able to edge a little higher today. A break above 105.50 would go a long way to stabilising it after the heavy losses suffered on Wednesday's US CPI release. Chris Turner EUR: Gas developments remain worrying European industry must be watching with growing concern as European natural gas prices continue to edge higher. Higher costs are a given, but winter rationing probably remains the bigger threat. For FX markets, 2022 has been the year of watching terms of trade developments – the price of exports over imports. These have moved very negatively for the eurozone this year and delivered a negative income shock. This week's move in gas prices has sent eurozone terms of trade towards the worst levels of the year and is a clean euro negative. Given that we are slightly bullish on the dollar today, we think that the recent EUR/USD correction has stalled in the 1.0350/0400 resistance area and would favour a move back to 1.0275 today. Elsewhere, some softer-than-expected July Swedish CPI data released today may pour cold water on calls for a massive Riksbank rate hike in September. After a good run in July, we doubt the Swedish krona pushes on too much further against the euro. Chris Turner GBP: 2Q22 UK GDP data not quite as bad as expected UK 2Q22 GDP data came in marginally better than expected, where the extra bank holiday in June did not have quite as large a negative impact as analysts thought. The data can probably keep expectations alive that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike 50bp on 15 September. And ever-rising expectations for how much higher the UK energy price cap will be adjusted (and what it means for the peak of UK inflation) will probably mean the BoE stays hawkish all year. EUR/GBP is slightly stronger than we thought and could edge up to the 0.8485 area. But given the challenges faced on the continent, we would not chase EUR/GBP higher. Chris Turner CEE: Hungary rating review tonight In the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, industrial production in Romania, the final estimate of inflation in Poland, Czech National Bank (CNB) minutes, and current account data across the region will close the busy calendar this week. The final CPI reading in Poland is unlikely to differ markedly from the flash estimate of 15.5% year-on-year. However, given that gas prices at the pump continued to decline in the final week of July, we do not rule out a downward revision to 15.4% YoY. In the long term, we expect the summer months to be marked by relatively stable, albeit very high, inflation. Inflationary pressure is projected to re-emerge with the beginning of the heating season in autumn and at the beginning of 2023 due to the upswing in regulated prices. CNB minutes should reveal the details of the new board's discussion from the last meeting when the central bank left rates unchanged for the first time since May 2021. In addition to the minutes, the full forecast will be released, including alternative scenarios. Hungary's rating review by S&P will also be published later today. We do not expect a change in the rating outlook (BBB, stable), but a downgrade is in play, mainly due to energy dependence and uncertain access to EU money. For today, we do not see many impulses from the regional calendar and the main issue remains the current level of EUR/USD, which is playing positively into the hands of the CEE currencies for now. We see the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint fairly priced, but it is hard to be bullish in this part of the region given the energy risks and the escalating conflict with the European Commission over access to EU money. The koruna shook off another batch of short positions yesterday and we believe EUR/CZK should gradually start to return to higher levels, given that with the region's most dovish central bank on its back, it is hard to find justification for the current EUR/CZK levels. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK TagsGasoline FX Daily FX Dollar CEE region Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

USDJPY struggles for bids The US dollar consolidates as traders reassess future rate hike moves by the Fed. A bearish RSI divergence and MA cross on the daily chart suggest the start of a correction. A short-lived rebound came to a halt in the supply zone around 135.40 which coincides with the 20-day moving average. A follow-up break below 133.00 indicates that the path of least resistance could be down. 130.50 at the origin of a bullish breakout in June is a critical floor, its breach may extend losses to last May’s lows next to 126.90. EURGBP tests resistance Sterling treads water as the market expects a contraction in the UK’s Q2 GDP. The latest rebound came under pressure near the support-turned-resistance at 0.8470 which sits on the 30-day moving average. A bounce off 0.8410 showed solid interest in keeping the single currency afloat. A close above 0.8470 would send the pair to 0.8520 where a breakout could prompt more sellers to cover their bets, laying the groundwork for a rally to June’ highs next to 0.8580. 0.8410 is the first support in case of hesitation. SPX 500 pulls lower The S&P 500 falls back over concerns that inflation is yet to peak. Divergence between the 20 and 30-day moving averages indicates an acceleration to the upside. The current recovery may have gained traction after a break above June’s peak at 4200. Along with medium-term bears rushing to avoid a squeeze, momentum buying may continue to support the index. May’s high at 4300 would be the next target. An overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback, If this occurs, 4150 is a new support level.

Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-14 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. According to the latest data, Dow lost its previous gains, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved into negative territory The rally in equity markets is beginning to slow down amid growing fears that the Fed may still take advantage of the situation and continue raising rates because of high inflation. According to the latest data, Dow lost its previous gains, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved into negative territory. Positive sentiment is also decreasing in Europe and Asia, while dollar and Treasury yields show growth. The recently-released jobless claims data in the US, albeit lower than expected, indicated an increase against the previous value, which probably convinced market players that the Fed will not miss a chance to continue actively raising interest rates. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said it is still necessary to raise rates in September, not by 0.25%, but by 0.50% or even 0.75%. This is why market players should closely follow the economic statistics coming in today, as that could signal what can be expected next week. There is a huge chance that dollar will resume growth, while the stock markets will end their rally. Forecasts for today:         EUR/USD The pair is trading above 1.0300. Increased selling pressure will push the quote to 1.0210. GBP/USD Although the pair is trading above 0.7100, an increase in selling pressure will bring the quote to 1.2080.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318790

Summary:  Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to August 9. A relatively quiet week where a continued improvement in risk appetite drove stocks higher while softening the dollar. Some commodity positions, with crude oil the major exceptions, showed signs of having reached a trough following weeks of heavy selling Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to August 9. A relatively quiet summer holiday impacted week where stocks traded higher ahead of last week’s CPI and PPI print after better than expected economic data helped reduce US recession fears while the market was looking for inflation to roll over. The dollar traded a tad softer, bond yields firmed up while commodities showed signs of having reached a trough following weeks of heavy selling.    Commodities Hedge funds were net buyers for a second week with demand concentrated in metals and agriculture while the energy sector saw continued selling. Overall the net long across 24 major commodity futures rose for a second week after recently hitting a two-year low. Buying was concentrated in gold, platinum, corn and livestock with crude oil and wheat being to most notable contracts seeing net selling. Energy: Speculators responded to continued crude oil weakness by cutting bullish bets in WTI and Brent crude by a combined 14% to a pre-Covid low at 304.5k lots. The reductions were primarily driven by long liquidation in both contracts following a demand fear driven breakdown in prices. Gas oil and gasoline longs were also reduced. Metals: Buying of metals extended to a second week led by gold which saw a 90% jump in the net long to 58.2k lots. Overall, net short positions were maintained in silver, platinum and copper with the latter seing a small amount of fresh selling due to profit taking on recently established longs. Agriculture: Grains were mixed with corn and soybeans seeing continued buying ahead of Friday's WASDE  report while the CBOT corn net short jumped 36% to 20k lotsand the Kansas net long was cut to a two-year low. The total grain long rose for second week having stabilised around 300k lots having collapse from a near record 800k lot on April 22.Soft commodities saw elevated short positions in sugar and cocoa being maintained with price gains in coffee and not least cotton supporting a small increase in their respective net longs. This before Friday's surge in cotton which left it up 13% on the week after the US Department of Agriculture slashed the US crop forecast by 19% to a 12-year low. Driven by a high level of abandonment of fields in the drought-stricken Southwest.      Forex In the week to August 9 when the dollar traded close to unchanged against a basket of major currencies, speculators increased to three the number of weeks of continued dollar selling. The pace of selling even accelerated to the highest since January after the gross long against ten IMM futures and the Dollar Index was slashed by 20% to $17.4 billion, a nine week low. Most notable selling of the greenback was seen against GBP and JPY followed by EUR and CHF. The Japanese yen, under pressure for months as yield differentials to the dollar widened saw its net short being cut by 22% to a 17-month low.     What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming  Source: COT: Speculators cut oil long to pre-covid low

Summary:  The weaker-than-expected economic data from China caught much of the attention and dragged U.S. bond yields and commodities lower. U.S. equities have been in a 4-week rally. Investors are weighing if the U.S. economy is heading into a soft-landing or a recession and if the Chinese economy can recover in the coming months. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S. equities opened lower on weak economic data prints from China as well as a weaker-than-expected Empire State manufacturing survey but climbed towards midday and finished higher. S&P 500 rose 0.4%. Nine of its 11 sectors gained, with shares of consumer staples and utilities outperforming. Nasdaq 100 rose 0.75%, led by a 3% jump in Tesla (TSLA:xnas).  U.S. treasury yields fell Treasury yields fell across the front end to the belly of the curve after a bunch of weak economic data from China and the Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -31.3, much weaker than 5.0 expected. Two-year yields fell by 7bps to 3.17% and 10-year yields declined 5bps to 2.78%.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities tried to move higher in early trading but soon reversed and turned south, Hang Seng -0.7%, CSI300 -0.1%.   The People’s Bank of China cut its policy on Monday but the unexpected move did not stir up much market excitement. The visit of another delegation of US lawmakers to Taiwan within 12 days of Speaker Pelosi’s visit stirred up concerns about the tension in the Sino-American relationship.   Container liner, Orient Overseas (00316:xhkg) plunged nearly 15%.   Stocks that have a dual listing of ADRs, in general, declined on Monday’s trading in Hong Kong following Friday’s decisions for five central SOEs to apply for delisting from the New York Stock Exchange, PetroChina (00857:xhkg/PTR:xnys) -3.4%, Sinopec (00386:xhkg/SNP:xnys) -2.9%, Alibaba (09988:xhkg/BABA:xnys) -1.2, Baidu (09888:xhkg/BIDU:xnas) -1%, Bilibili (09626:xhkg/BILI:xnas) -1%. SMIC (00981:xhkg) dropped more than 6% on analyst downgrades.  Chinese property names dropped as home prices continued to fall in China.  USD broadly firmer against G10 FX, expect JPY The US dollar started the week on the front foot, amid a weaker risk sentiment following a miss in China’s activity data and the disappointing US manufacturing and housing sentiments. The only outlier was the JPY, with USDJPY sliding to lows of 132.56 at one point before reversing the drop. The 131.50 level remains a key area of support for USDJPY and a bigger move in the US yields remains necessary to pierce through that level. The commodity currencies were the hardest hit, with AUDUSD getting in close sight of 0.7000 ahead of the RBA minutes due this morning. NZDUSD also plunged from 0.6450 to 0.6356. The Chinese yuan weakened and bond yields fell after disappointing economic data and surprising rate cuts USDCNH jumped more than 1% from 6.7380 to as high as 6.8200 on Monday following the weak credit data from last Friday, disappointing industrial production, retail sales, and fixed assets investment data released on Monday morning, and unexpected rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China. The 10-year Chinese government bond yield fell 8bps to 2.67%, the lowest level since April 2020, and about 20bps below the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices had a variety of headwinds to deal with both on the demand and the supply side. While demand concerns were aggravated due to the weak China data, and the drop in US Empire State manufacturing – both signaling a global economic slowdown may be in the cards – supply was also seen as being possibly ramped up. There were signs of a potential breakthrough in talks with Iran as Tehran said it sent a reply to the EU's draft nuclear deal and expects a response within two days. Meanwhile, Aramco is also reportedly ramping up production. WTI futures dropped back below $90 while Brent touched $95/barrel. Metals face the biggest brunt of China data weakness Copper led the metals pack lower after China’s domestic activity weakened in July, which has raised the fears of a global economic slowdown as the zero-Covid policy is maintained. Meanwhile, supply side issues in Europe also cannot be ignored with surging power prices putting economic pressure on smelters, and many of them running at a loss. This could see further cuts to capacity over the coming months. Iron ore futures were also down. What to consider? Weak Empire State manufacturing survey and NAHB Index Although a niche measure, the United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, compiled by the New York Federal Reserve, fell to -31.3 from 11.1 in July, its lowest level since May 2020 and its sharpest monthly drop since the early days of the pandemic. New orders and shipments plunged, and unfilled orders also declined, albeit less sharply. Other key areas of concern were the rise in inventories and a decline in average hours worked. This further weighed on the sentiment after weak China data had already cast concerns of a global growth slowdown earlier. Meanwhile, the US NAHB housing market index also saw its eighth consecutive monthly decline as it slid 6 points to 49 in August. July housing starts and building permits are scheduled to be reported later today, and these will likely continue to signal a cooling demand amid the rising mortgage rates as well as overbuilding. European power price soared to record high European power prices continue to surge to fresh record highs amid gas flow vagaries, threatening a deeper plunge into recession. Next-year electricity rates in Germany advanced as much as 3.7% to 477.50 euros ($487) a megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG. That’s almost six times as much as this time last year, with the price doubling in the past two months alone. UK power prices were also seen touching record highs. European Dutch TTF natural gas futures were up over 6%, suggesting more pain ahead for European utility companies. China’s activity data China’s July industrial production (3.8% YoY vs consensus 4.3% & June 3.9%), retail sales (2.7% YoY vs consensus 4.9% & June 3.1%), and fixed asset investments (5.7% YTD vs consensus 6.2% & June 6.1%) released this more were weak across the board.  Property investment growth dropped to -6.4% YTD or -12.3% YoY in July, well below market expectations of -5.7% YTD.  Surprising rate cuts from the PBOC met with muted market reactions The People’s Bank of China cut its policy 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility Rate by 10bps to 2.75% from 2.85% and the 7-day reverse repo rate by 10bps to 2.0% from 2.1%.  Market reactions to the surprising move were muted as credit demand, as reflected in the aggregate financing and loan growth data was weak in China. BHP ‘s FY22 results better than expected The Australian mining giant reported FY22 results beating analyst estimates with strong EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Coal segment performance was ahead of expectations while results from the copper and iron ore segments were slightly below expectations.  The company announced a larger-than-expected dividend payout and a higher capex plan for 2023. RBA minutes due to be released this morning Earlier in the month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate by 50bps to 1.85% and the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy emphasized an uncertain and data-dependent outlook. The RBA releases its minutes from the July meeting today, and the market focus will be on the range of options discussed for the August hike and any hint of future interest rate path.  US retailer earnings eyed After disappointing results last quarter, focus is on Walmart and Home Depot earnings later today. These will put the focus entirely on the US consumer after the jobs data this month highlighted a still-tight labor market while the inflation picture saw price pressures may have peaked. It would also be interesting to look at the inventory situation at these retailers, and any updated reports on the status of the global supply chains.     For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 16, 2022

Summary:  Weak data out of China overnight, together with a surprise rate cut from the PBOC and collapsing energy prices later on Monday saw the Japanese yen surging higher across the board. Indeed, the two key factors behind its descent to multi-decade lows earlier this year, rising yields and surging energy prices, have eased considerably since mid-June with only modest reaction from the yen thus far. Is that about to change? FX Trading focus: JPY finding sudden support on new disinflation narrative Weaker than expected Chinese data overnight brought a surprise rate cut from the Chinese central bank and seems to have sparked a broadening sell-off in commodities, which was boosted later by a crude oil drop of some five dollars per barrel on the news that Iran will decide by midnight tonight on whether to accept a new draft on the nuclear deal forward by the Euro zone. In response, the Chinese yuan has weakened toward the highs for the cycle in USDCNH, trading 6.78+ as of this writing and  (there was a spike high to 6.381 back in May but the exchange rate has been capped by 6.80 since then), but the Japanese yen is stealing the volatility and strength crown, surging sharply across the board and following up on the move lower inspired by the soft US CPI data point. US long yields easing considerably lower after an odd spike last Thursday are a further wind at the JPY’s back here. In the bigger picture, it has been rather remarkable that the firm retreat in global long-date yields since the mid-June peak and the oil price backing down a full 25% and more from the cycle highs didn’t do more to support the yen from the yield-spread angle (Bank of Japan’s YCC policy less toxic as yields fall) and from the current account angle for Japan. Interestingly, while the JPY has surged and taken USDJPY down several notches, the US dollar is rather firm elsewhere, with the focus more on selling pro-cyclical and commodity currencies on the possible implication that China may be content to export deflation by weakening its currency now that commodity prices have come down rather than on selling the US dollar due to any marking down of Fed expectations. Still, while the USD may remain a safe haven should JPY volatility be set to run amok across markets, the focus is far more on the latter as long as USDJPY is falling Chart: EURJPY As the JPY surges here, EURJPY is falling sharply again, largely tracking the trajectory of longer European sovereign yields, which never really rose much from their recent lows from a couple of weeks back, making it tough to understand the solid rally back above 138.00 of late. After peaking above 1.90% briefly in June, the German 10-year Bund, for example, is trading about 100 basis points lower and is not far from the cycle low daily close at 77 basis points. The EURJPY chart features a rather significant pivot area at 133.50, a prior major high back in late 2021 and the recent low and 200-day moving average back at the beginning of the month. After a brief JPY volatility scare in late July and into early August that faded, are we set for a second and bigger round here that takes USDJPY down through 130.00 and EURJPY likewise? A more significant rally in long US treasuries might be required to bring about a real JPY rampage. Source: Saxo Group The focus on weak Chinese data and key commodity prices like copper suddenly losing altitude after their recent rally has the Aussie shifting to the defensive just after it was showing strength late last week in sympathy with strong risk sentiment and those higher commodity prices. Is the AUDUSD break above 0.7000-25 set for a high octane reversal here? AUDJPY is worth a look as well after it managed to surge all the way back toward the top of the range before. The idea that a weak Chine might export deflation from here might be unsettling for Aussie bulls. The US macro data focus for the week is on today’s NAHB homebuilder’s survey, which plunged to a low since 2015 in June (not including the chaotic early 2020 pandemic breakout months), the July Housing Starts and Building Permits and then the July Retail Sales and FOMC minutes on Wednesday. With a massive relief in gasoline prices from the July spike high, it will be interesting to see whether the August US data picks up again on the services side. The preliminary August University of Michigan sentiment survey release on Friday showed expectations rising sharply by over 7 points from the lowest since-1980 lows of June, while the Present Situation measure dropped a few points back toward the cycle (and record) lows from May. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength. The JPY is the real story today, but as our trending measures employ some averaging/smoothing, the move will need to stick what it has achieved today to show more. Watch out for a big shift in the commodity currencies in coming days as well if today’s move is the start of something. Elsewhere, the JPY comeback is merely taking CHF from strength to strength, although even the might franc has dropped against the JPY today. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs. Big momentum shift afoot today and watching whether this holds and the JPY pairs and pairs like AUDUSD and USDCAD to see if we are witnessing a major momentum shift in themes here. Also note NOK pairs like USDNOK and EURNOK here. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1400 – US Aug. NAHB Housing Market Index 0130 – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes Source: FX Update: JPY jumps on deflating energy prices, fresh retreat in yields.

After two-quarters of contraction, many still do not accept that the US economy is in a recession  Federal Reserve officials have pushed against it, as has Treasury Secretary Yellen. The nearly 530k rise in July nonfarm rolls, more than twice the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey, and a new cyclical low in unemployment (3.5%) lent credibility to their arguments. If Q3 data point to a growing economy, additional support will likely be found.   While the interest rate-sensitive housing sector may still feel the squeeze, we note that activity is at historically strong levels  Housing starts are expected to have fallen for the third consecutive month in July. That would be the longest decline since the last four months of 2018. However, around 1.5 mln annualized pace, starts are still elevated. Permits, which are leading indicators, are holding up even better. They peaked at the end of last year a little below 1.9 mln and may have fallen to around 1.65 mln in July. Since the Great Financial Crisis, they were above 1.5 mln only once (October 2019). before the surge began in mid-2020. Existing home sales have come off a bit more  They are expected to have fallen for the sixth consecutive month in July. It is the worst streak since 2013. Indeed, they are likely to fall below the 5 mln annualized mark for the first time since January 2019. Elevated mortgage rates are the highest since 2008 and have squeezed buyers while rising inventories have sparked some anecdotes about price cuts. The number of houses for sale rose for the first time in three years, around three months at the current pace of sales. Below five months of inventory is regarded as tight by realtors. Of interest, first-time buyers accounted for almost a third of the sales in June. Cash sales accounted for a quarter of all transactions in June. Houses were on the market for an average of two weeks last month, the shortest for more than a decade. Recall that new home sales are recorded on contract signings, while the existing home sales are counted on closes.   While the housing market is softening, consumption and output appear to have begun Q3 on solid footing  Retail sales, which account for around 40% of consumption, are expected to have edged by 0.1%-0.2% after a 1.0% rise in June. The drop in gasoline prices will likely be seen here and weigh on the retail sales, which are reported in nominal terms. Core retail sales, which excludes auto, gasoline, building materials, and food services, are expected to have risen 0.6% after 0.8% in June. More people working and earning a little bit more (on average), i.e., the income effect should help underpin consumption.   Manufacturers added 30k people to their payrolls in July, the most in three months and matching last year's average pace  The US has added more manufacturing jobs through July than it did in the same period a year ago (273k vs. 161k). Manufacturing output has disappointed. It fell by 0.5% in both May and June. The decline in vehicle and parts output may have been partially reversed in July amid a recovery in auto sales. Higher commodity prices encouraged mining output in May and June (1.2% and 1.7%, respectively). It may have slowed as commodity prices fell in July. The scorching summer and demand for air conditioning likely boosted utility output, which had fallen in June (-1.4%).  On a year-over-year basis, industrial output often contracts into a recession but not always before the start of the recession  Through June, it has risen by almost 4.2%. The capacity utilization rate is expected to have above 80.0% for the fourth consecutive month. That would match the last cyclical peak in 2018, the longest since the Great Financial Crisis. Utilization rates fall sharply during a recession. In two of the last three recessions, capacity usage fell before the downturn was dated. In the Financial Crisis, the peak coincided with the start of the recession. The US also reports the capital flow data for June (TIC on August 15) While a favorite of reporters and analysts, it is not a market mover. Through May, net long-term foreign capital inflows have been a little more than $465 bln., which is about an 8.5% increase from a year ago. Finally, the Empire State Survey August 15) and the Philadelphia Fed surveys (August 18), the first look into August aside for the weekly jobs claims and mortgage applications. The market appears to put more weight on some components of the Philly survey.   Three economic releases from Japan will draw attention  Japan reports its first estimate of Q2 GDP to kick off the week. The world's third-largest economy contracted at an annualized rate of  0.5% in Q1 but is expected to have rebounded to 2.7% in Q2. That translates into a 0.7% quarterly expansion (seasonally adjusted) after shrinking by 0.1% in Q1. Consumption and business investment rebounded. Inventories were likely unwound. After rising 0.5% in Q1, the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey looks for a 0.3% decline. The GDP deflator has been negative for the past five quarters. It was at -0.5% in Q1, but economists (Bloomberg survey) project a decline to -0.8%.  Despite the GDP deflator still showing deflation's grip, the July CPI (August 19) is likely to show inflation continues to rise above the BOJ's target  It targets the CPI, excluding fresh food, at 2.0%. It stood at 2.2% in June and is likely to have ticked up a little in July. The Tokyo CPI has already been reported. The core measure rose to 2.3% from 2.1%. Tokyo's headline rate increased to 2.5% from 2.3%, and the measure excluding food and energy crept up to 1.2% from 1.0%.  July trade figures will be reported on August 17 Japan is experiencing a  massive terms-of-trade shock. In the first half of this year, Japan reported a JPY7.94 trillion (~$59 bln) deficit. In H1 21,  it had a trade surplus of about JPY810 bln (~$6 bln). The problem is not with merchandise exports. In June, they were up almost a fifth from last year, when they were by nearly 50% over 2020. Imports have surged with food and energy prices. Merchandise imports had risen 46% above the year-ago level in June, and that is after an increase by a third from June 2020.   The UK and Canada report July retail sales and CPI  The UK also publishes its latest employment report, while Canada updates housing starts and portfolio flows. The data poses headline risk, but the macroeconomic backdrop is unlikely to change significantly. The Bank of England warns that the economy will enter a protracted recession that will carry into 2024. The Bloomberg survey found that the median forecast assessed a 45% probability of a recession over the next 12 months.   UK's labor market is fairly strong, and the unemployment rate is at 3.8%, having bottomed at 3.7% in March, the lowest level since 1974. Inflation is rising, and the base effect underscores the upside risk. Last July, CPI was unchanged on the month.   While wage growth may be strong, it is insufficient to cover the rising cost of living and this squeezing consumption June was the first month since October 2021 that retail sales, excluding gasoline, rose. However, UK retail sales, reported in volume terms, have fallen an average of 0.5% a month over the past 12 months. If there is going to be relief for the UK household, it will have to come from the new government. The Bank of England has one objective. Bring down inflation. The swaps market has discounted almost an 85% chance of another 50 bp increase to 2.25% at the September 15 meeting. It sees a year-end rate of around 2.80%, implying nearly 75 bp hikes in Q4.   Canada's labor market improvement is stalling, and it looks like the economy is too The monthly GDP downshifted from 0.7-0.8% in February and March to 0.3% in April and flat in May. Retail sales have been strong, flattered by rising prices. Through May, they have increased by an average of 1.5% a month. The average in the first five months of 2021 was 0.6. Canadian inflation accelerated to 8.1% in June and may have slowed in July for the first time since June 2021. Underlying core measures are expected to have stayed firm. Last month, the Bank of Canada surprised the market with a 100 bp hike in the overnight lending rate to 2.50%. The swaps market briefly took the possibility of a 75 bp hike at the September 7 meeting very seriously but now has slightly better than a 40% chance.  In Australia, the labor market is in focus  It added 60k full-time positions on average a month in Q2 after a 50.5k average in Q1. The pace is likely to moderate. The participation rate of 66.8% set in June was a record high. The unemployment rate of 3.5% was also a record low. There are some signs that the overall economy may be losing some momentum. Still, with CPI accelerating from 5.1% in Q1 to 6.1% in Q2, the Reserve Bank of Australia is tightening policy. After delivering the first hike in May of 25 bp, it lifted the cash target rate in 50 bp clips in June through August. Speculation of another 50 bp hike at the September 6 meeting is seen as slightly better than even money.  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on August 17  It will most likely deliver the seventh hike in the cycle that began last October. After three quarter-point moves, it delivered three 50 bp hikes. The cash target rate now stands at 2.50%. With Q2 inflation rising faster than expected (7.3% year-over-year), unemployment low (3.3% in Q2; record low set last December at 3.2%), more forceful action is possible. However, the swaps market judges it unlikely and has about a 90% chance of a 50 bp hike reflected in current prices. The New Zealand dollar is strong, at its best level in two months, but maybe too strong. Although it closed firmly ahead for the weekend, it looks stretched from a technical perspective, perhaps signaling a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" type of activity.  Norway's central bank, Norges Bank, meets on August 18  A few hours after Norway reports Q2 GDP, Norges Bank makes its rate announcement. Typically, it prefers to adjust policy when it updates its economic assessment, similar in this regard to the European Central Bank. However, last week's CPI shock heightens the risk it breaks from the pattern. Headline CPI jumped 1.3% in July, lifting the year-over-year rate to 6.8%. The median forecast (Bloomberg's survey) was for an unchanged 6.3% pace. The underlying rate, which excludes energy and adjusts for tax changes, surged by 1.5%, nearly twice as much as expected. As a result, the year-over-year change was boosted to 4.5% from 3.6%.   The deposit rate stands at 1.25%  Norges Bank began the tightening cycle last September but has raised it by a cumulative 125 bp. However, among the high-income countries in Europe, only the UK's policy rate is higher. Sweden's inflation is higher at 8.5% (July from 8.7% in June), and its policy rate is 50 bp less than Norway. Since June 16, the day after the FOMC meeting that results in the first 75 bp rate hike, the Norwegian krone has been the strongest major currency, gaining 3.9% against the US dollar and 6.8% against the euro. Look for the dollar to correct higher, even if a 50 bp hike is delivered.    Disclaimer   Source: Week Ahead: More Evidence US Consumption and Output are Expanding, and RBNZ and Norges Bank to Hike

The bullish dollar narrative was fairly straightforward  Yes, the US main challengers, China and Russia, have been hobbled in different ways by self-inflicted injuries. Still, the driver of the dollar was the expected aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The market accepted that after being a bit slower than ideal (though faster and before many other large central banks), the Fed would move forcefully against inflation, even if it diminished the chances of an economic soft-landing.   However, now the market seems to have a different reaction function  The euro was impressively resilient after the job growth of more than twice expectations. However, the softer than expected US CPI sent the dollar broadly lower, inflicting some apparent technical damage to the charts.  We are reluctant to chase the dollar lower and impressed in a week that the US reported a decline in CPI and PPI that the 10-year bond yield closed a few basis points higher and the first back-to-back weekly increase in two months Technically, it seems that the dollar's pullback, nearly a month-old, move is getting maybe getting stretched. We will try to identify levels that could confirm another leg lower and what would suggest the US dollar may snap back.   Dollar Index:   After reaching almost 107.00 after the stronger than expected jobs data, the Dollar Index fell to almost 104.65 in response to the softer than expected CPI. It was the lowest level since the end of June. The MACD is still falling but oversold. The Slow Stochastic looks poised to turn lower from the middle of the range. Nevertheless, we like it higher in the coming days. We target 106.30 and then 107.00. A move above 107.50 could signal a return to the highs near 109.30 from mid-July. That said, a close below 105.00 would boost the risk of another leg lower.  Euro:  The euro rallied strongly after the softer US CPI, but a key trendline drawn off the February, March, and June highs begins the new week near $1.0375 remains unchallenged. Although the momentum indicators allow for additional gains, we look for the euro to push lower in the coming days. Only a move above the trendline would give it new life. We think the greater likelihood is for the single currency to initially ease toward $1.0180-$1.0200. It may take a break of $1.01 to signal a return to the 20-year low set in mid-July near $0.9950. The US two-year premium over Germany narrowed every day last week for a cumulative 11 bp to near 2.66%. Italy's premium over Germany was trimmed by six basis points. It was the third week of convergence, but at 0.75%, it is still nearly twice what it was in June. Japanese Yen:  The greenback was pushed away from JPY135 by the decline in US rates after the CPI figures. It was sold to about JPY131.75, holding above the month's low set on August 2 near JPY130.40. However, US rates closed firmer on the week despite three softer-than-expected price reports (CPI, PPI, and import/export prices). As a result, the greenback looks poised to test the JPY135.00-50 ceiling. A move above JPY136 would target the JPY137.50 area. We have emphasized the strong correlation between changes in the exchange rate and the US 10-year yield. That correlation is off its highs though still above 0.50, while the correlation with the US two-year yield has risen toward 0.65, the highest in five months.  British Pound:   Sterling rose to $1.2275 in the broad US dollar sell-off in the middle of last week. It stalled in front of the high set on August 2, a little shy of $1.23. This sets up a potential double top formation with a neckline at $1.20. A break would re-target the two-year low set in July near $1.1760. The MACD is set to turn down. The Slow Stochastic is going sideways in the middle of the range after pulling back earlier this month. Sentiment seems poor, and in the week ahead, the UK is expected to report some easing in the labor market, accelerating consumer prices, and another decline in retail sales. Canadian Dollar:   The US dollar fell to near a two-month low last week slightly below CAD1.2730, and slipped through the 200-day moving average on an intraday basis for the first time since June 9. The test of the (61.8%) retracement of this year's rally (early April low ~CAD1.2400 and the mid-July high ~CAD1.3225) found near CAD1.2715 was successful. The US dollar recovered ahead of the weekend back to the CAD1.2800 area. Although the momentum indicators give room for further US dollar losses, we suspect a near-term low is in place and look for an upside correction toward CAD1.2850-CAD1.2900. The Canadian dollar remains sensitive to the immediate risk environment reflected in the change in the S&P 500. The correlation over the past 30 sessions is a little better than 0.60. The correlation reached a two-year high in June near 0.80. The exchange rate's correlation (30 sessions) with oil prices (WTI) set this year's high in early August near 0.60. It is now slightly below 0.50.  Australian Dollar:   Although our bias is for the US dollar to correct higher, the Aussie does not line up quite as well. It broke above the high set at the start of the month near $0.7050 and has held above it. However, its surge stalled slightly above $0.7135, and it consolidated in a narrow range around $0.7100 ahead of the weekend. The momentum indicators are constructive. The main hurdle is the 200-day moving average near $0.7150 and the (50%) retracement of this year's decline (~$0.7660 in early April and ~$6680 in mid-July) found near $0.7170. A break of this area could see a return to the June high by $0.7285.   Mexican Peso:   Latin American currencies had a good week, except for the Argentine peso, which fell by more than 1%, for the dubious honor of being the poorest performer in the emerging markets. Led by Chile (+3.9%) and the Colombian peso (3.8%), Latam currencies accounted for half of the top five performers last week. The peso's 2.7% gain was its best in five months, and the dollar was sold a little through MXN19.85, its lowest level since late June when it reached almost MXN19.82.There seems little to prevent a move toward MXN19.50. Any worries that AMLO's appointments to the central bank would block aggressive tightening of monetary policy must have evaporated as Banxico demonstrated a resolve to hike rates and shadow the US.  Chinese Yuan:   The yuan took a step lower from mid-April until mid-May. Since then, it has been trading within the range more or less seen in the second half of May. That dollar range is roughly CNY6.650 to CNY6.77. For the past month, the dollar has traded between CNY6.72 and CNY6.78, fraying the upper end of the broader range after the greenback surged broadly after the US employment data. Policymakers have signaled concern about inflation and its reluctance to ease monetary policy. It would seem the domestic policy efforts might favor a firm yuan.     Disclaimer   Source: Is the Dollar's Month-Long Pullback Over?

Since April the Federal Reserve has hiked by 200bp, but over the same period financial conditions have improved, bringing them back to where they were in April. Why? Market rates have fallen and credit spreads have narrowed, especially since June. This must reverse. Else the Fed has no choice but to get tougher. Another reason for the US 10yr to re-test 3% US financial conditions have loosened so much it looks like we're back to square one Long before the Federal Reserve started to hike in March this year, US financial conditions had moved from being ultra-loose around the turn of the year to being reasonably tight just before that first hike. In effect the market was doing the tightening for the Fed ahead of their first hike.   Measured in terms of standards of deviations away from the mean, financial conditions moved from +1 (ultra loose) to -0.5 (reasonably tight). They then tightened more as market rates continued to rise, credit spreads tightened and the dollar strengthened. By end-June, US financial conditions were at -1.5 (very tight). But since then, financial conditions have loosened. They are now at -0.2, which is only moderately tight (after months of official tightening)!   US financial conditions have in fact loosened in an impressive manner since early July, so much so that they're now back to where they were in February (and briefly again in April). But here's the thing. Since April the Fed has delivered 200bp in rate hikes, with the implied purpose of tightening financial conditions. We're not quite back to square one, but this looks quite odd all the same. In a sense, the financial markets have undone the tightening down by the Federal Reserve since they started to get serious with out-sized hikes. Why? Two reasons (graphs below). 1. We’ve been generically risk-on in the past six weeks, with credit spreads well off their highs and still tightening, and 2. Market rates have fallen (from 3.5% in June, the US Treasury yield almost got to 2.5% before backing off). Given that the Fed wants financial conditions tighter (else why hike), this combination can’t continue. The loosening in financial conditions that needs to be reversed Source: Macrobond, ING estimates Expect financial conditions to re-tighten in the weeks and months ahead. After all that's what the Fed wants and needs Between now and the 21st September FOMC meeting, and assuming no material change from the prognosis of easing but sticky underlying inflation, the Fed will be hoping that financial conditions re-tighten. That way they can ratify the tightening with a hike. Else the Fed will be left with the less comfortable position of coaxing tighter financial conditions, whether through the verbal or policy action route. When the Federal Reserve hikes on 21st September (we think by 50bp), it will bring the effect funds rate to a level that is practically flat to where the US 10yr Treasury yield currently trades at today. From there things get interesting. In all probability the Fed needs to do more; we think they get to 3.5% to 3.75% by year end. As we noted in a previous piece (here), the 10yr yield can trade through the fund rate, but will only sail through it when the funds rate has actually peaked. Specifically, the 10yr yield should not trade more than 50bp through the fund rate unless the funds rate has peaked. In fact typically it would tend to be no more than 25bp through pre the peak, and once the funds rate has peaked, then the 10yr can get as far as 150bp through. But the funds rate has not peaked as of yet, so the 25-50bp range through the funds rate is where the extreme should be. That also places upward pressure on market rates. Look for the US 10yr to head back above 3%, even on a slowdown So, if the Fed is heading to 3.5% or higher, that must put upward pressure on the 10yr Treasury yield in the months ahead. We maintain our view that the US 10yr needs to get back to a 3% handle, and in fact it could hit 3.25% given the Fed ambition (our view of their ambition) to get the funds rate north of 3.5%. The risk asset environment will have to re-calibrate too. Implicit in the notion of tighter credit spreads is a discount for a more tame financial environment and a reduction in recession, and by extension, default risk. The thing is if inflation does not fall fast enough the Fed will feel emboldened to continue to hike even as the economy creaks, re-heightening the recession / default risks that lie ahead. And further loosening in fincnaical conditions places even more presssure on the Fed to act as an offset. Better then for financial market to anticipate this, and move in a direction that re-tightens financial conditions. Apart from higher market rates, that also includes widening pressure on credit spreads. The signaling for that can come from a higher interest rates narrative; one that is deemed persistant till the job is one. The idea of a seemingly never ending sequence of hikes from the Fed and a ratcheting higher in market rates can be enough to dampen the enthusiam in risk asset space.   We are attempting to thread a very tight needle here in the sense that we have also called the top for the US Treasury yield at 3.5% (here); the level hit in mid-June. The factors that drove that call remain in play, as the 5yr now has a persistent richness attached to it (classic turning point tendency) and inflation expectations have calmed and remain well down from where they were. So the call remains that 3.5% was the peak. The fall in rates since then made sense. But the threat of the move below 2.5% was too far too fast. And we have since been calling for the 10yr to head back up to a 3% handle (and potentially extend to 3.25%). Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary:  Equities traded higher still yesterday as treasury yields fell further back into the recent range and on hopes that an Iran nuclear deal will cement yesterday’s steep drop in oil prices. The latest data out of the US was certainly nothing to celebrate as the July US Homebuilder survey showed a further sharp drop in new housing interest and a collapse in the first regional US manufacturing survey for August, the New York Fed’s Empire Manufacturing.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures extended their gains yesterday getting closer to the 200-day moving average sitting around the 4,322 level. The US 10-year yield seems well anchored below 3% and financial conditions indicate that S&P 500 futures could in theory trade around 4,350. The news flow is light but earnings from Walmart later today could impact US equities should the largest US retailer lower their outlook for the US consumer. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities were mixed. CSI300 was flat, with electric equipment, wind power, solar and auto names gained. Hang Seng Index declined 0.5%. Energy stocks fell on lower oil price. Technology names were weak overall, Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH.I) declined 0.9%. Sunny Optical (02382:xhkg) reported worse than expected 1H22 results, revenues -14.4% YoY, net profits -49.5%, citing weakening component demand from the smartphone industry globally. The company’s gross margin plunged to 20.8% from 24.9%. Li Auto’s (02015:xhkg/LI:xnas) Q2 results were in line with expectations but Q3 guidance disappointed. The launch L9 seems cannibalizing Li ONE sales. USD: strength despite weak US data and falling treasury yields and strong risk sentiment Yesterday, the JPY tried to make hay on China cutting rates and as global yields eased back lower, with crude oil marked several dollars lower on hopes for an Iran nuclear deal. But the move didn’t stick well in USDJPY, which shrugged off these developments as the USD firmed further across the board, despite treasury yields easing lower, weak data and still strong risk sentiment/easy financial conditions. A strong US dollar is in and of itself is a tightening of financial conditions, however, and yesterday’s action has cemented a bullish reversal in some pairs, especially EURUSD and GBPUSD, where the next important levels pointing to a test of the cycle lows are 1.0100 and 1.2000, respectively. Elsewhere, USDJPY remains in limbo (strong surge above 135.00 needed to suggest upside threat), USDCAD has posted a bullish reversal but needs 1.3000 for confirmation, and AUDUSD is teetering, but needs a close back below 0.7000 to suggest a resurgent US dollar and perhaps widening concerns that a Chinese recession will temper interest in the Aussie. Crude oil Crude oil (CLU2 & LCOV2) trades lower following Monday’s sharp drop that was driven by a combination softer economic data from China and the US, the world’s top consumers of oil, and after Iran signaled a nuclear deal could be reached soon, raising the prospect of more Iranian crude reaching the market. The latest developments potentially reducing demand while adding supply forced recently established longs to bail and short sellers are once again in control. Brent needs to hold support at $93 in order to avoid further weakness towards $90. Focus on Iran news. Copper Copper (COPPERUSSEP22) led the metals pack lower, without breaking any key technical levels to the downside, after China’s domestic activity weakened in July. Meanwhile, supply side issues in Europe also cannot be ignored with surging power prices putting economic pressure on smelters, and many of them running at a loss. HG copper jumped 19% during the past month and yesterday’s setback did not challenge any key support level with the first being around $3.50/lb. BHP, the world’s top miner meanwhile hit record profits while saying that China is likely to offer a “tail wind” to global growth (see below). EU power prices hit record high on continued surge in gas prices ... threatening a deeper plunge into recession. The latest surge being driven by low water levels on Europe’s rivers obstructing the normal passage for diesel, coal, and other fuel products, thereby forcing utilities to use more gas European Dutch TTF benchmark gas futures (TTFMU2) has opened 5% higher at €231/MWh, around 15 times higher than the long-term average, suggesting more pain ahead for European utility companies. Next-year electricity rates in Germany (DEBYF3) closed 3.7% higher to 477.50 euros ($487) a megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG. That is almost six times as much as this time last year, with the price doubling in the past two months alone. UK power prices were also seen touching record highs. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT) see long-end yields surging. Yields dipped back lower on weak US economic data, including a very weak Empire Manufacturing Survey (more below) and another sharp plunge in the NAHB survey of US home builders, suggesting a rapid slowdown in the housing market. The survey has historically proven a leading indicator on prices as well. The 10-year benchmark dipped back further into the range after threatening to break up higher last week. The choppy range extends down to 2.50% before a drop in yields becomes a more notable development, but tomorrow’s US Retail Sales and FOMC minutes offer the next test of sentiment. What is going on? Weak Empire State manufacturing survey and NAHB Index Although a niche and volatile measure, the United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, compiled by the New York Federal Reserve, fell to -31.3 from 11.1 in July, its lowest level since May 2020 and its sharpest monthly drop since the early days of the pandemic. New orders and shipments plunged, and unfilled orders also declined, albeit less sharply. Other key areas of concern were the rise in inventories and a decline in average hours worked. This further weighed on the sentiment after weak China data had already cast concerns of a global growth slowdown earlier. Meanwhile, the US NAHB housing market index also saw its eighth consecutive monthly decline as it slid 6 points to 49 in August. July housing starts and building permits are scheduled to be reported later today, and these will likely continue to signal a cooling demand amid the rising mortgage rates as well as overbuilding. China's CATL plans to build its second battery factory in Europe CATL unveiled plans to build a renewable energy-powered factory for car battery cells and modules in Hungary. It will invest EUR 7.34 billion (USD 7.5bn) on the 100-GWh facility, which will be its second one in Europe. To power the facility CATL will use electricity from renewable energy source, such as solar power. At present, CATL is in the process of commissioning its German battery production plant, which is expected to roll out its first cells and modules by the end of 2022. Disney (DIS) shares rise on activist investor interest Daniel Loeb of Third Point announced a significant new stake in Disney yesterday, helping to send the shares some 2.2% higher in yesterday’s session. The activist investor recommended that the company spin off its ESPN business to reduce debt and take full ownership of the Hulu streaming service, among other moves. Elliott exits SoftBank Group The US activist fund sold its stake in SoftBank earlier this year in a sign that large investors are scaling back on their investments in technology growth companies with long time to break-even. In a recent comment, SoftBank’s founder Masayoshi Son used more cautious words regarding the investment company’s future investments in growth companies. BHP reports its highest ever profit, bolstered by coal BHP posted a record profit of $21.3bn supported by considerable gains in coal, nickel and copper prices during the fiscal year ending 30 June 2022. Profits jumped 26% compared to last year’s result. The biggest driver was a 271% jump in the thermal coal price, and a 43% spike in the nickel price. The world’s biggest miner sees commodity demand improving in 2023, while it also sees China emerging as a source of stable commodity demand in the year ahead. BHP sees supply covering demand in the near-term for copper and nickel. According to the company iron ore will likely remain in surplus through 2023. In an interview Chief Executive Officer Mike Henry said: Long-term outlook for copper, nickel and potash is really strong because of “unstoppable global trends: decarbonization, electrification, population growth, increasing standards of living,” What are we watching next? Australia Q2 Wage Index tonight to determine future RBA rate hike size? The RBA Minutes out overnight showed a central bank that is trying to navigate a “narrow path” for keeping the Australian economy on an “even keel”. The RBA has often singled out wages as an important risk for whether inflation risks becoming more embedded and on that note, tonight sees the release of the Q2 Wage Index, expected to come in at 2.7% year-on-year after 2.4% in Q1. A softer data point may have the market pulling back expectations for another 50 basis point rate hike at the next RBA meeting after the three consecutive moves of that size. The market is about 50-50 on the size of the RBA hike in September, pricing a 35 bps move. RBNZ set to decelerate its guidance after another 50 basis point move tonight? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike its official cash rate another 50 basis points tonight, taking the policy rate to 3.00%. With business and consumer sentiment surveys in the dumps in New Zealand and oil prices retreating sharply the RBNZ, one of the earliest among developed economies to tighten monetary policy starting late last year, may be set for more cautious forward guidance and a wait and see attitude, although wages did rise in Q2 at their second fastest pace (+2.3% QoQ) in decades. The market is uncertain on the future course of RBNZ policy, pricing 44 bps for the October meeting after tonight’s 50 bps hike and another 36 bps for the November meeting. US retailer earnings eyed After disappointing results last quarter, focus is on Walmart and Home Depot earnings later today. These will put the focus entirely on the US consumer after the jobs data this month highlighted a still-tight labor market while the inflation picture saw price pressures may have peaked. It would also be interesting to look at the inventory situation at these retailers, and any updated reports on the status of the global supply chains.   Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Walmart and Home Depot with analysts expecting Walmart to report 7% revenue growth y/y and 8% decline y/y in EPS as the US retailer is facing difficulties passing on rising input costs. Home Depot is expected to report 6% growth y/y in revenue and 10% growth y/y in EPS as the US housing market is still robust driving demand for home improvement products. Sea Ltd, the fast-growing e-commerce and gaming company, is expected to report revenue growth of 30% y/y in Q2 but worsening EBITDA margin at -16.2%. The previous winning company is facing headwinds in its gaming division and cash flow from operations have gone from positive $318mn in Q1 2021 to negative $724mn in Q1 2022. Today: China Telecom, Walmart, Agilent Technologies, Home Depot, Sea Ltd Wednesday: Tencent, Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, Analog Devices, Cisco Systems, Synopsys, Lowe’s, CSL, Target, TJX, Coloplast, Carlsberg, Wolfspeed Thursday: Applied Materials, Estee Lauder, NetEase, Adyen, Nibe Industrier, Geberit Friday: China Merchants Bank, CNOOC, Shenzhen Mindray, Xiaomi, Deere Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Germany Aug. ZEW Survey 0900 – Eurozone Jun. Trade Balance 1200 – Poland Jul. Core CPI 1215 – Canada Jul. Housing Starts 1230 – US Jul. Housing Starts and Building Permits 1230 – Canada Jul. CPI 2030 – API Weekly Report on US Oil Inventories 2350 – Japan Jul. Trade Balance 0130 – Australia Q2 Wage Index 0200 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate announcement 0300 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr Press Conference  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – August 16, 2022

Bonds quickly reversed their gains and look under further pressure from the goldilocks state of play across financial markets. There are risks to these not too hot nor too cold markets, however. A more hawkish Fed in today’s minutes is one. Hard US economic data point to a healthy 3Q but things should worsen in 4Q Source: Shutterstock Banking on a dovish Fed carries risks Bunds have tested the 1% yield level again after a 9bp round trip in two days. This is the proof that market moves in illiquid summer months, even more so due to bank holidays in some parts of Europe on Monday, should be taken with a pinch of salt. Bonds more broadly continue to trade weak with a bias toward higher yields evident since the start of the month. We attribute some of the move to better risk sentiment across developed markets, but risks to these goldilocks, neither too hot that central banks need to keep hiking nor too cold that the economy falls off a cliff, state of play abound. Hawkish FOMC minutes and strong retail sales could bump up the US yield curve Source: Refinitiv, ING   Tonight’s Fed minutes might well jar with the upbeat tone evident in financial markets The first and most obvious challenge is that central banks can ill afford a loosening of financial conditions as they still grapple with record high inflation. The Fed is clearly one example but by no means an isolated one. Tonight’s Fed minutes might well jar with the upbeat tone evident in many financial markets. Even if investors might be tempted to discount any hawkish concerns as ‘pre-CPI peak’, the tone of Fed comments since the July FOMC meeting leaves no doubt about their mood. This in turn should result in higher treasury yields, reaching above 3% again, and a softer tone in risk assets. Both economic optimism and tighter spread look at risk The discrepancy between soft and hard data in the US continues to drive some of the whipsaw in bond yields. Industrial production yesterday cemented our expectations for a solid 3Q GDP growth, and July retail sales, to be published today, should look equally solid. The contrast with sentiment indicators might only be a matter of timing however, with 4Q growth prospects looking a lot less healthy. It is difficult to imagine markets extrapolating this good stint of positive US numbers for long, with other corners of the economy, most notably housing, heading south. Risk of profit-taking in fixed income into the September supply window are rising Source: Refinitiv, ING   There is a looming risk of a profit-taking into the September/October supply window Another risk is coming from the rise in government bonds themselves. Independent of the tone of central banks, rising core yields bring about wider sovereign spreads. This has been evident in the underperformance of peripheral bond markets this week with greater volatility in core yields also affecting demand for spread products. There is also a looming risk of a profit-taking into the September/October supply window after the gains registered over the summer months. This may not be the case yet but, in the case of sovereign spreads, some investors may well decide that they do not want to go into the last month of Italian election campaign with too much exposure. Today's events and market view Eurozone 2Q GDP sees its preliminary release today. Consensus is for a print in line with the advanced 0.7% MoM/4% YoY first reading but the focus in financial markets is much more on the energy crunch facing the eurozone economy over the winter months. The main item on the economic calendar in the US is the July retail sales report. A fall in gasoline prices will depress the headline figure but this should free up cash for other goods and services according to our economics team. This could add to upward pressure on bond yields into the FOMC minutes. The US Treasury will also sell $8bn worth of 20Y T-bonds. The main potential market-mover will be later in the session however, in the form of the July FOMC minutes. The majority view is that the Fed can ill afford a further easing of financial conditions if it is to get inflation under control. This argues in favour of an overall hawkish tone coming out of the minutes. Michelle Bowman will also be on the wires. Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today raised its main interest rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 3 percent, a level last seen seven years ago. It was the fourth 50-basis point hike in the current cycle, which may make the RBNZ one of the stronger monetary tightening central banks to bring down inflation.   Today's hike was in line with market expectations. Some policymakers believe that inflation may soon begin to stabilize or even start to decline through lower fuel prices and transportation prices. However, inflation may not return to the New Zealand central bank's target until mid-2024. Thus, further monetary tightening may be required, with its end expected in the first quarter of 2023 - according to a statement issued to today's decision. As a result, the RBNZ may raise the main interest rate by about 3.75 percentage points throughout the cycle, to 4 percent, from the record low of 0.25 percent that occurred in 2021. Inflation in New Zealand rose to 7.3 percent y/y in the second quarter of 2022, up from 6.9 percent in the previous period. This was the highest figure since the second quarter of 1990.   The NZD/USD exchange rate seemed to react relatively calmly to the above decision, as it was in line with the market consensus. At 07:30 GMT+3 on the Conotoxia MT5 platform, the NZD/USD exchange rate rose by 0.25 percent, to 0.6360. As a result, at this hour, of the major currencies against the US dollar, it is the NZD that seems to have gained the most. Since the beginning of the month, the NZD has gained 1.10 percent to the USD, which may make New Zealand's currency the strongest of the world's major currencies.   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Bank of New Zealand with another rate hike

The euro's depreciation has helped to improve the competitiveness of eurozone businesses but in contrast to previous episodes of euro weakness, exports are hardly benefiting. Remarkably, structurally weaker eurozone economies have gained relative competitiveness since the start of the pandemic Does parity bring relief for eurozone exporters? Euro-dollar reached parity for the first time since 2002 - a milestone that is largely symbolic. However, the weakening of the euro, in general, deserves attention. The euro has been falling against the dollar since mid-2021, which seems to be largely related to diverging central bank expectations and a sudden decline in the eurozone's trade balance. The latter is mainly related to the energy crisis, which has turned a solid trade surplus into a large trade deficit. The high energy prices paid in international markets have played an important role in the weakening of the currency. Because the energy element is so important in the slide of the euro, the euro has weakened most significantly against the dollar. Against other important trade partners, the eurozone has seen its currency weaken less. While the euro has lost 16.2% vis-à-vis the US dollar since 1 January 2021, the trade-weighted exchange rate has only depreciated by 6.9%. The euro's slide has resulted in a lot of imported inflation because we pay for global commodities in dollars. At the same time, gains in competitiveness have been modest. This is far from the best of both worlds. The euro weakening is closely linked to higher energy prices Source: Macrobond, ING Research Competitiveness is improving, but businesses aren't noticing it The competitiveness improvement does require a deeper look, though, as relative inflation between trade partners plays a role. Taking this into account, the real effective exchange rate (REER) for a country is considered to be a key indicator measuring competitiveness. This is an exchange rate which is weighted by local cost developments. In this case, we use unit labour costs. As chart 3 shows, the REER for the eurozone has been sliding, which boosts the competitive position of eurozone companies. This means that despite a limited drop in the nominal effective exchange rate, businesses do seem to be profiting from relatively better price competitiveness. So while the main impact of the weakening euro is definitely negative through higher imported inflation, there is at least some improvement in export competitiveness to be seen, which could cushion the recessionary effects in the domestic market. Competitiveness is improving, but businesses aren't noticing it Source: European Commission, Eurostat, ING Research   The problem is that businesses are far from feeling this though. The Economic Sentiment Indicator has a subindex which reveals how businesses perceive their competitiveness to have changed in their home markets and abroad. This indicates that competitiveness has dropped significantly within the EU and outside. While exports have recovered to the pre-pandemic trend in recent quarters, it looks like the weaker euro has not given an extra push. The question is whether this relates to price competitiveness or whether weakening global demand is causing this. Regardless, it does not look like businesses are profiting from the improved REER at this point, highlighting the fact that the eurozone is currently mainly feeling the burden from the weak euro and is reaping little benefit from it. How has relative competitiveness within the eurozone evolved since the pandemic started? Reflecting on the euro crisis, we noticed a severe deterioration in competitiveness among the ‘periphery’ countries ahead of the crisis. The big question was if the weaker economies could make structural adjustments to become more attractive exporters again and with that, run surpluses. Painful wage adjustments were modestly successful in regaining competitiveness at that point. While competitiveness is not the primary economic problem right now, it is interesting to see if any divergence in competitiveness is emerging again. When looking at the developments in the real effective exchange rate based on unit labour costs against other eurozone economies in recent years, we see interesting differences in performance. Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have seen their competitiveness deteriorate, while Italy, France and Greece have seen strong improvements. Spanish competitiveness has been stable over recent years, while Portugal has experienced a sizable deterioration. The export powerhouses of the past decade have seen their competitive position slip a little compared to other eurozone countries. This is mainly due to stronger wage growth while productivity growth did not improve in tandem. Overall, this development is a small step towards making the monetary union more coherent and reducing the risk of a new euro crisis triggered by differences in competitiveness. Internal eurozone competitiveness gains are made by France and Italy Source: European Commission, ING Research   A shift in relative competitiveness had already started prior to the pandemic. However, some of the large moves at the start of the pandemic were likely related to how furlough schemes are included in the statistics and so are not necessarily an accurate reflection of underlying competitiveness developments. This seems to be the case for the Netherlands and Greece for example, but in the Dutch case, we still notice a break from the pre-pandemic trend as cost competitiveness ended up at a weaker level in the second quarter. Since energy prices have become a dominant factor and labour cost competitiveness is muddied by government support, a look at a different measure of cost competitiveness is useful. Taking the GDP deflator, a broad price index across the economy, we see that a roughly similar picture emerges. Also here, the Netherlands and Germany have seen cost competitiveness deteriorate compared to other eurozone economies, while Italy and France have seen improvements. Compared to a broader basket of trade partners, the weaker euro dominates but still, we see that Germany and the Netherlands have experienced smaller gains compared to France and Italy. Competitiveness gains have been modest and smallest in the north The euro's depreciation has helped to improve the traditional cost competitiveness of eurozone businesses but in contrast to previous episodes of euro weakness, exports are hardly benefiting. As energy prices are probably a much larger cost concern for eurozone businesses, traditional cost competitiveness indicators have to be taken with a pinch of salt. Still, looking at competitiveness shifts within the eurozone, remarkably, structurally weaker eurozone economies have become relatively more competitive since the start of the pandemic, reducing the risk of a new euro crisis being triggered by stark differences in competitiveness. Read this article on THINK TagsGDP Eurozone Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The US dollar slowly added for the third trading session, returning to levels of three weeks ago. While the published FOMC meeting minutes did not cause a sharp reaction, the FX dynamics of the past week are more indicative of the end of a corrective pullback. And we would not be surprised if the Dollar's growth will shift to the next gear in the coming days. The market's primary focus has been whether there will be a 75-point rate hike next. These expectations have changed little since the futures market, as has been the case for the last week or so, is laying down a roughly 40% chance of a third consecutive such move. However, the central bank officials are concerned that the inflation threat could quickly return if policy tightening does not suppress expectations. So, the FOMC is in the mood to press the monetary brake pedal more firmly than the market expects. This is now roughly the same signal Powell sent in autumn 2018, resulting in a violent sell-off in the equity market. It seems that markets are setting expectations for a lower final rate hike than the Fed. The FOMC has been using more and more channels lately to explain its view, from comments from committee members and minutes to explanatory articles in the WSJ. It is well visible that the currency market has been taking note of these signals for at least a week now, although investors continued to push stocks up until yesterday. The currency market often goes half a step ahead of stocks, so we see the reversal of the Dollar Index to growth over the last ten days as the end of a corrective decline and the start of a new wave of dollar strength. Apart from the Fed, there are also several fundamental factors on the Dollar's side right now, from slowing retail sales and a collapse in the housing market to strong demand for LNG, which the US exports to Europe. These factors are reducing pressure on the Dollar through the trade balance. At the same time, money markets are paying increasing attention to rising bond yields in the US. While the two-year US bonds most sensitive to Fed policy are trading at with 3.2% yield, compared to similar Chinese bonds at just 2.07% and German as low as 0.75%. This disposition attracts buyers to dollar securities, which further support its exchange rate. The Dollar Index has managed to quickly return above its 50-day moving average, maintaining it as support for over a year. If we are right, the Dollar could soon reach a retest of the July highs, when the DXY was above 109, and the EURUSD was down to 1.0. And with a new retest, we should expect dollar buyers to be able to push it to renew multi-year highs unless the macroeconomic situation changes drastically.

The European session is off to a mixed start after both the US and Asia posted small losses overnight. The Fed minutes on Wednesday didn’t really offer anything we didn’t already know. Even those that leapt at the opportunity to buy the supposed “dovish pivot” are aware that this isn’t quite the case and the minutes really back that up. Not that they needed to as the Fed commentary that has followed has made that perfectly clear. The central bank did stress the need to slow the pace of rate increases as monetary policy tightened further which most expected would be the case anyway. Of course, that is ultimately dependent on the inflation data allowing for such a move and the July reading was certainly the first step towards that. It also referenced the risk of monetary policy being tightened more than necessary to restore price stability which could be read a couple of different ways. While it doesn’t suggest it will over-tighten intentionally, the Fed is clearly determined to get inflation back to target and ensure the public believes it will. The statement could therefore suggest it will act in a more aggressive manner than markets expect in order to deliver on that. Alternatively, it could indicate that the central bank is aware of the risks and may therefore ease off the break as soon as the opportunity arises in order to avoid tightening too much. ​ It also raises the possibility of a swift u-turn from hiking rates to cutting them as markets have indicated recently and policymakers have pushed back against. Needless to say, there are many more twists and turns to come. A cause for concern or merely a blip? The Australian jobs data looked pretty shocking on the face of it. Not only did employment fall by 40,900 – against an expectation of a 26,500 gain – but the drop in full-time employment was considerably worse at 86,900 which was then partially offset by a rise in part-time workers. All told, it looks pretty grim but as is so often the case, there’s a caveat. This data was not in keeping with the trend that we’ve seen in the labour market data in recent months and there are numerous possible explanations for why the dip has happened. With the labour market still very tight and unemployment at a record low – helped there last month by a drop in participation – this report will probably be viewed as an anomaly albeit one that will draw more attention to the data in the coming months. Ultimately, it’s unlikely to deter the RBA from raising rates at the next meeting, with markets currently favouring a 25 basis point hike. Steady post-Fed minutes Bitcoin is relatively flat on the day after losing more ground on Wednesday. It’s now suffered four consecutive days of losses and has fallen around 7% from its peak at the start of the week. By its standards, that’s not really anything to write home about and the trend of the last couple of months still looks positive. The difficulty is that the rally that brought it back to $25,000 has lost considerable momentum and that could begin to weigh more heavily on the price. A move below $22,500 may suggest the rally has run its course for now. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Steady after Fed Minutes - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Summary:  Better than expected economic data continued to support sentiment in US in contrast to Europe, where ECB’s Schnabel's warning on the growth/inflation picture aggravated concerns. Fed speakers meanwhile continued to push for more rate hikes this year, aiding dollar strength despite lack of a clear direction in long end yields. EUR and GBP broke below key support levels, but oil prices climbed higher amid improving demand outlook but sustained supply issues. Focus now on Jackson Hole next week. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  In its second lightest volume session of the year, U.S. equities edged modestly higher, S&P 500 +0.23%, Nasdaq 100 +0.26%. As WTI crude climbed 2.7%, rebounding back above $90, the energy space was a top gainer aside from technology. Exxon Mobil (XOM:xnys) gained 2.4%.  Cisco (CSCO:xnas) surged 5.8% after reporting better-than-expected revenues. Nvidia (NVDA:xnas), +2.4% was another top contributor to the gain of the S&P 500 on Wednesday.  95% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 results, with about three-quarters of them managing to beat analyst estimates. On Friday there is a large number of options set to expire.  The U.S. treasury yield curve bull steepened on goldilocks hope The U.S. 2-10-year curve steepened 7bps to -32bps, driven by a 9bp decline in the 2-year yield.  In spite of hawkish Fed official comments and the August Philadelphia Fed Index bouncing back to positive territory, the market took note of the falls in the prices paid diffusion index and the prices received index from the survey and sent the short-end yields lower.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Both Hang Seng Index and CSI300 declined about 0.8%.  Tencent (00700:xhkg) rose 3.1% after reporting results that beat estimates as a result of better cost control and adverting revenues. Other China internet stocks traded lower, Bilibili (09626:xhkg) -4.2%, Baidu (09888:xhkg) -4.5%, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) -2.1%, JD.COM (09618:xhkg) -2.5%. The surge of Covid cases in China to a three-month high and the Hainan outbreak unabated after a 2-week lockdown, pressured consumer stocks.  Great Wall Motor (02333:xhkg) led the charge lower in autos, plunging near 6%.  Other automakers fell 2% to 4%.  Geely (00175:xhkg) fell 3.1% after reporting 1H earnings missing estimates.  A share Chinese liquor names declined, Kweichow Moutai (600519:xssc) -1.2%, Wuliangye Yibin (000858:xsec) -1.6%. Chinese brewers were outliner gainers in the consumer space, China Resources Beer (00291:xhkg) +4.8%, Tsingtao Brewery (00168:xhkg) +1.9%. Chinese property developers traded lower with Country Garden (02007:xhkg) losing the most, -5.2% , after warning that 1H earnings may have been down as much as 70%. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) is looking at the quality of real estate loan portfolios at some financial institutions.  EURUSD and GBPUSD break through key support levels Dollar strength prevailed into the end of the week with upbeat US economic data and a continued hawkish Fedspeak which continued to suggest more Fed rate hikes remain in the pipeline compared to what the market is currently pricing in. EUR and GBP were the biggest loser, with both of them breaking below key support levels. EURUSD slid below 1.0100 handle while GBPUSD broke below 1.2000 despite a selling in EGBs and Gilts. USDJPY also broke above 136 in early Asian trading hours despite lack of a clear direction in US 10-year yields and a slide in 2-year yields. AUDUSD testing a break below 0.6900 as NZDUSD drops below 0.6240. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Oil prices reversed their drop with WTI futures back above $90/barrel and Brent futures above $96. Upbeat US economic data has supported the demand side sentiment in recent days. Moreover, President Xi’s comment that China will continue to open up the domestic economy also aided the demand equation. Supply concerns, meanwhile, were aggravated by geopolitical tension around a potential incident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Shell hinted at reducing the capacity of Rhineland oil refinery due to the lower water level on the Rhine river and said the situation regarding supply is challenging but carefully managed. Gold (XAUUSD) still facing mixed signals The fate of gold has been turned lower again this week with the yellow metal facing decline of 2.5% so far in the week and breaking below the $1759 support, the 38.2% retracement of the July to August bounce. Stronger dollar, along with Fed’s continued hawkish rhetoric, weighed. Silver (XAGUSD) is also below the key support at $19.50, retracing half of its recent gains. The short-term direction has been driven by speculators reducing bullish bets, but with inflation remaining higher-for-longer, the precious metals can continue to see upside in the long run. What to consider? Existing home sales flags another red for the US housing market US existing home sales fell in July for a sixth straight month to 4.81 mn from 5.11 mn, now at the slowest pace since May 2020, and beneath the expected 4.89 mn. Inventory levels again continued to be a big concern, with supply rising to 3.3 months equivalent from 2.9 in June. This continues to suggest that the weakening demand momentum and high inventory levels may weigh on construction activity. US economic data continues to be upbeat The Philly Fed survey outperformed expectations, with the headline index rising to +6.2 (exp. -5.0, prev. -12.3), while prices paid fell to 43.6 (prev. 52.2) and prices received dropped to 23.3 (prev. 30.3). new orders were still negative at -5.1, but considerably better than last month’s -24.8 and employment came in at 24.1 from 19.4 previously. While this may be a good signal, survey data tends to be volatile and a long-term trend is key to make any reasonable conclusions. Jobless claims also slid to 250k still suggesting that the labor market remains tight. Fed speakers push for more rate hikes St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard flagged another 75 basis point rate hike at the September meeting and hinted at 3.75-4% Fed funds rate by the end of the year with more front-loading in 2022. Fed’s George, much like Fed’s Daly, said that last month’s inflation is not a victory and hardly comforting. Bullard and George vote in 2022. Fed’s Kahskari said that he is not sure if the Fed can avoid a recession and that there is more work to be done to bring inflation down, but noted economic fundamentals are strong. Overall, all messages remain old and eyes remain on Fed Chair Powell speaking at the Jackson Hole conference on August 25. Japan’s inflation came in as-expected Japan’s nationwide CPI for July accelerated to 2.6% y/y, as expected, from 2.4% y/y in June. The core measure was up 2.4% y/y from 2.2% previously, staying above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target and coming in at the strongest levels since 2008. Upside pressures remain as Japan continues to face a deeper energy crisis threat into the winter with LNG supplies possibly getting diverted to Europe for better prices. Still, Bank of Japan may continue to hold its dovish yield curve control policy unless wage inflation surprises consistently to the upside. Cisco’s revenues came in flat, beating a previously feared decline Cisco Systems reports July 2022 quarter revenues of USD13.1 billion, down 0.2% YoY but better than the consensus of a 3% decline.  Net income came in at USD3.4 billion, -3.2% YoY but more than 1 percentage point above consensus.  The fall in product order was also smaller than feared.  The company guided the fiscal year 2023 revenue growth of +4% to +6%, ahead of the 3% expected and FY23 EPS of USD3.49 to USD3.56, in line with expectations as gross margin pressures are expected to offset the impact of higher sales.  NetEase’s Q2 results beat NetEase (09999:xhkg/NTES:xnas) reported above-consensus Q2 revenues, +13% YoY, and net profit from continuing operations, +28%.  PC online game revenues were above expectations, driven by Naraka Bladepoint content updates and the launch of Xbox version.  Mobile game segment performance was in line.  Geely Automobile 1H earnings missed estimates on higher costs Chinese automaker Geely reported higher-than-expected revenue growth of 29%YoY in 1H22 but a 35% YoY decline in net profit which was worse than analyst estimates.  The weakness in profit was mainly a result of a 2.6 percentage point compression of gross margin to 14.6% due to higher material costs and production disruption, higher research and development costs, and the initial ramping-up of production of the Zeekr model.  The company maintains its sales volume target of 1.65 million units, an growth of 24% YoY, for the full year of 2022.    For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 19, 2022

Summary:  Equity markets managed a quiet session yesterday, a day when the focus is elsewhere, especially on the surging US dollar as EURUSD is on its way to threatening parity once again, GBPUSD plunged well below 1.2000 and the Chinese renminbi is perched at its weakest levels against the US dollar for the cycle. Also in play are the range highs in longer US treasury yields, with any significant pull to the upside in yields likely to spell the end to the recent extended bout of market complacency.   What is our trading focus?   Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures bounced back a bit yesterday potentially impacted by the July US retail sales showing that the consumer is holding up in nominal terms. The key market to watch for equity investors is the US Treasury market as the US 10-year yield seems to be on a trajectory to hit 3%. In this case we would expect a drop in S&P 500 futures to test the 4,200 level and if we get pushed higher in VIX above the 20 level then US equities could accelerate to the downside. Fed’s Bullard comments that he is leaning towards a 75 basis point rate hike at the September meeting should also negatively equities here relative to the expectations. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Hang Seng Index edged up by 0.4% and CSI300 was little changed. As WTI Crude bounced back above $90/brl, energy stocks outperformed, rising 2-4%. Technology names in Hong Kong gained with Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) up 0.6%. Investors are expecting Chinese banks to cut loan prime rates on Monday, following the central bank’s rate cut earlier this week. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) is looking at the quality of real estate loan portfolios and reviewing lending practices at some Chinese banks. The shares of NetEase (09999:xhkg/NTES:xnas) dropped more than 3% despite reporting above-consensus Q2 revenue up 13% y/y, and net profit from continuing operations up 28%.  PC online game revenue was above expectations, driven by Naraka Bladepoint content updates and the launch of Xbox version. Mobile game segment performance was in line. USD pairs as the USD rally intensifies The US dollar rally is finding its legs after follow up action yesterday that took EURUSD below the key range low of 1.0100, setting up a run at the psychologically pivotal parity, while GBPUSD slipped well south of the key 1.2000 and USDJPY ripped up through 135.50 resistance. An accelerator of that move may be applied if US long treasury yields pull come further unmoored from the recent range and pull toward 3.00%+. A complete sweep of USD strength would arrive with a significant USDCNH move as discussed below, and the US dollar “wrecking ball” will likely become a key focus and driver of risk sentiment as it is the premiere measure of global liquidity. The next key event risk for the US dollar arrives with next Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium speech from Fed Chair Powell. USDCNH The exchange rate is trading at the highs of the cycle this morning, and all traders should keep an eye out here for whether China allows a significant move in the exchange rate toward 7.00, and particularly whether CNH weakness more than mirrors USD strength (in other words, if CNH is trading lower versus a basket of currencies), which would point to a more determined devaluation move that could spook risk sentiment globally, something we have seen in the past when China shows signs of shifting its exchange rate regime from passive management versus the USD. Crude oil Crude oil (CLU2 & LCOV2) remains on track for a weekly loss with talks of an Iran nuclear deal and global demand concerns being partly offset by signs of robust demand for fuel products. Not least diesel which is seeing increasing demand from energy consumers switching from punitively expensive gas. Earlier in the week Dutch TTF benchmark gas at one point traded above $400 per barrel crude oil equivalent. So far this month the EU diesel crack spread, the margin refineries achieve when turning crude into diesel, has jumped by more than 40% while stateside, the equivalent spread is up around 25%, both pointing to a crude-supportive strength in demand. US natural gas US natural gas (NGU2) ended a touch lower on Thursday after trading within a 7% range. It almost reached a fresh multi-year high at $9.66/MMBtu after spiking on a lower-than-expected stock build before attention turned to production which is currently up 4.8% y/y and cooler temperatures across the country lowering what until recently had driven very strong demand from utilities. LNG shipments out of Freeport, the stricken export plant may suffer further delays, thereby keeping more gas at home. Stockpiles trail the 5-yr avg. by 13%. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) The focus on US Treasury yields may be set to intensify if the 10-year treasury benchmark yield, trading near 2.90% this morning, comes unmoored from its recent range and trades toward 3.00%, possibly on the Fed’s increase in the pace of its quantitative tightening and/or on US economic data in the coming week(s). Yesterday’s US jobless claims data was better than expected and the August Philadelphia Fed’s business survey was far more positive than expected, suggesting expansion after the volatile Empire Fed survey a few days earlier posted a negative reading.   What is going on?   Global wheat prices continue to tumble ... with a record Russian crop, continued flows of Ukrainian grain and the stronger dollar pushing down prices. The recently opened corridor from Ukraine has so far this month seen more than 500,000 tons of crops being shipped, and while it's still far below the normal pace it has nevertheless provided some relief at a time where troubled weather has created a mixed picture elsewhere. The Chicago wheat (ZWZ2) futures contract touch a January on Thursday after breaking $7.75/bu support while the Paris Milling (EBMZ2) wheat traded near the lowest since March. Existing home sales flags another red for the US housing market while other US economic data continues to be upbeat US existing home sales fell in July for a sixth straight month to 4.81 mn from 5.11 mn, now at the slowest pace since May 2020, and beneath the expected 4.89 mn. Inventory levels again continued to be a big concern, with supply rising to 3.3 months equivalent from 2.9 in June. This continues to suggest that the weakening demand momentum and high inventory levels may weigh on construction activity. The Philly Fed survey meanwhile outperformed expectations, with the headline index rising to +6.2 (exp. -5.0, prev. -12.3), while prices paid fell to 43.6 (prev. 52.2) and prices received dropped to 23.3 (prev. 30.3). New orders were still negative at -5.1, but considerably better than last month’s -24.8 and employment came in at 24.1 from 19.4 previously Fed speakers push for more rate hikes St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard 2.6% with more front-loading in 2022. Fed’s George, much like Fed’s Daly, said that last month’s inflation is not a victory and hardly comforting. Bullard and George vote in 2022. Fed’s Kashkari said that he is not sure if the Fed can avoid a recession and that there is more work to be done to bring inflation down, but noted economic fundamentals are strong. Overall, all messages remain old and eyes remain on Fed Chair Powell speaking at the Jackson Hole conference on August 26, next Friday.  Japan’s inflation came in as expected Japan’s nationwide CPI for July accelerated to 2.6% y/y, as expected, from 2.4% y/y in June. The core measure was up 2.4% y/y from 2.2% previously, staying above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target and coming in at the strongest levels since 2008. Upside pressures remain as Japan continues to face a deeper energy crisis threat into the winter with LNG supplies possibly getting diverted to Europe for better prices. Still, Bank of Japan may continue to hold its dovish yield curve control policy unless wage inflation surprises consistently to the upside.   What are we watching next?   Strong US dollar to unsettle markets – and Jackson Hole Fed conference next week? The US dollar continues to pull higher here, threatening the cycle highs versus sterling, the euro and on the comeback trail against the Japanese yen as well. The US dollar is a barometer of global liquidity, and a continued rise would eventually snuff out the improvement in financial conditions we have seen since the June lows in equity markets, particularly if longer US treasury yields are also unmoored from their recent range and rise back to 3.00% or higher.  The focus on the strong US dollar will intensify should the USDCNH exchange rate, which has pulled to the highs of the cycle above 6.80, lurch toward 7.00 in coming sessions as it would indicate that China is unwilling to allow its currency to track USD direction. As well, the Fed seems bent on pushing back against market expectations for Fed rate cuts next year and may have to spell this out a bit more forcefully at next week’s Jackson Hole conference starting on Thursday (Fed Chair Powell to speak Friday). Earnings to watch The two earnings releases to watch today are from Xiaomi and Deere. The Chinese consumer is challenged over falling real estate prices and input cost pressures on food and energy, and as a result consumer stocks have been doing bad this year. Xiaomi is one the biggest sellers of smartphones in China and is expected to report a 20% drop in revenue compared to last year. Deere sits in the booming agricultural sector, being one of the biggest manufacturers of farming equipment, and analysts expect a 12% gain in revenue in FY22 Q3 (ending 31 July).   Today: China Merchants Bank, CNOOC, Shenzhen Mindray, Xiaomi, Deere Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1230 – Canada Jun. Retail Sales 1300 – US Fed’s Barkin (Non-voter) to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – August 19, 2022

Inflation in the Eurozone appears to be rising steadily, which may be influenced by the rising cost of electricity and energy carriers. Today's release of producer prices in Germany suggests that the peak of inflation in the Eurozone may be yet to come. Germany is the eurozone's largest economy, so published readings for that economy could heavily influence data for the community as a whole. Energy for businesses rose by 105 percent. Today we learned that in July producer prices (PPI inflation) rose in Germany at the fastest pace on record. PPI inflation on an annualized basis was as high as 37.2 percent. A month earlier, price growth stood at 32.7 percent, while the market consensus was for inflation of 32 percent. Energy prices still seem to remain the main driver of producer costs. The cost of the aforementioned energy for businesses rose 105 percent compared to July 2021. Had it not been for this factor, producer prices could have risen much more slowly, by only 14.6 percent. - according to the published data. Entrepreneurs could translate such a significant increase in costs into their products, which could also raise consumer CPI inflation as a result. Hence, it is not impossible that a possible peak in inflation in the eurozone is yet to come. It could fall in the last quarter of this year, or early next year, assuming that energy prices begin to stabilize or fall. Otherwise, the eurozone economy could plunge into a deep crisis. EUR/USD near parity again The rate of the EUR/USD pair fell today to 1.0084 (yesterday it was around 1.0200) and again approached parity at 1.0000. Concerns about the eurozone economy may be reflected in the exchange rate. However, it seems that the reaction to negative data is becoming less and less, as if the market has to some extent already discounted some of the bad news that may come in the near future. The European Central Bank's forthcoming actions may put the brakes on the euro's sell-off. According to the interest rate market, the ECB may opt for two rate hikes of 50 basis points each this fall. The market assumes that the ECB will raise the main interest rate to 1.5 percent throughout the cycle. Unlike the Fed, which may reduce the pace of hikes at the end of the year, the ECB may only move with a rapid increase in interest rates. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: PPI inflation in Germany highest on record. Euro under pressure

Summary:  Today we note the strengthening headwinds against the melt-up in financial conditions as the US dollar continues to rise, having now broken higher against the Euro, sterling and yen, and as a new surge in US 10-year yields threatens. Elsewhere, US Natural Gas prices ease despite a weak storage build yesterday and wheat prices are retreating rapidly. In equities, focus on Applied Materials after their earning report, Canadian Solar and a look ahead at Deere. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: USD and treasury yields pushing back against the melt-up

Summary:  The USD is breaking higher still, with important levels falling versus the Euro and yen yesterday. But the pain in sterling is most intense as presaged by the lack of a response to surging UK rates. Can the Bank of England do anything but continue to chase inflation from behind, caught between the Scylla of inflation and the Charybdis of a vicious recession? Also, USDCNH lurks at the top of the range ahead of another PBOC rate announcement on Monday. FX Trading focus: USD wrecking ball swinging again. UK faced with classic ugly choice between taking the pain via inflation or a severe recession The US dollar strength has picked up further after yesterday saw the breakdown in EURUSD below 1.0100 and a shot through 135.50 in USDJPY as longer US yields pushed to local highs. GBPUSD has been a bigger move on sterling weakness as discussed below.  A bit of resilient US data (especially the lower jobless claims than expected and a sharp revision lower of the prior week’s data taking the momentum out of the rising trend) has helped support the USD higher as longer US yields rose a bit further, taking the 10-year US treasury yield benchmark to new local highs, although we really need to see 3.00% achieved there after a few recent teases higher with no follow through higher. Looking forward to next week, the market will have to mull whether it has been too aggressive in pricing the Fed to pivot policy next year on disinflation and an easy-landing for the economy. The steady drumbeat of Fed pushback against the market’s complacency, together with a few of the recent data points (ISM Services, nonfarm payrolls, yesterday’s claims, etc.) has seen some of the conviction easing. But the key test will come next Friday, when Fed Chair Powell is set to speak on the same day we get the July PCE inflation data. Keep USDCNH on the radar through the end of today on the risk of an upside break above the range and Monday as the PBOC is set for a rate announcement (consensus expectations or another 10 bps of easing).   Chart: GBPUSD Lots at stake for sterling as discussed below, as it is a bit scary to see a currency weaken sharply despite a massive ratcheting higher in rate expectations from the central bank. The fall of 1.2000 has set in motion a focus on the 1.1760 cycle low, with an aggravated USD rise here and tightening of global financial conditions possibly quickly bringing the spike low toward 1.1500 from the early 2020 pandemic outbreak panic into focus. It is worth noting that the lowest monthly closing level for GBPUSD since the mid-1980’s is 1.2156. Without something dramatic to push back against USD strength next week from Jackson Hole, it is hard to see how this month may set the new low water mark for monthly closes. Source: Saxo Group GBPUSD slipped below 1.1900 this morning after breaking below the psychologically important 1.2000 level yesterday. As noted in the prior update, it’s remarkable to see the marked weakness in sterling despite the marking taking UK short rates sharply higher – with 2-year UK swaps over 100 basis points higher from the lows early this month. The Bank of England has expressed a determination to get ahead of the inflation spike and the market has priced in a bit more than a 50-basis-points-per-meeting pace for the three remaining BoE meetings of 2022. But is that sufficient given the UK’s structural short-comings and external deficits? Currency weakness risks adding further to spike in inflation this year. The BoE can take a couple of approaches in response: continue with the 50 bps hikes while bemoaning the backdrop and trotting out the expectation that eventually, economic weakness and easing commodity prices will feed through to drop inflation back into the range. Or, the BoE can actually get serious and super-size hikes even beyond the acceleration the market has priced, at the risk of bringing forward and increasing the severity of the coming recession. Until this week, the BoE’s anticipated tightening trajectory had prevented an aggravated weakness in sterling in broader terms, but the currency’s weakness despite a massive mark-up of BoE expectations has ratcheted the pressure on sterling and the BoE’s response to an entirely new level. Turkey shocked with a fresh rate cut yesterday of 100 basis points to take the policy rate to 13.00%. This with year-on-year inflation in Turkey at 79.6% and PPI at 144.6%, and housing measured at 160.6%. The move took USDTRY above 18.00, though it was a modest move relative to the size of the surprise. Turkish central bank chief Kavcioglu said that the bank would also look to “further strengthen macroprudential policy” by addressing the yawning difference between the policy rate and the rate commercial banks are charging for loans (more than double the official policy rate), as the push is to continue a credit-stimulated approach, inflation-be-darned.   Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength Note: a new color scheme for the FX Board! Besides changing the green for positive readings to a more pleasant blue, I have altered the settings such that trend readings don’t receive a more intense red or blue coloring until they have reached more significant levels – starting at an absolute value of 4 or higher. So far, most of the drama in sterling is the lack of a response to shifts in the UK yield curve, the broad negative momentum has only shifted a bit here, but watching for the risk of more. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs AUDNZD is crossing back higher, AUDCAD back lower, so NZDCAD….yep. Note the CNHJPY – if CNH is to make more waves, need to see more CNH weakness in an isolated sense, not just v. a strong USD. And speaking of a strong USD, the last holdouts in reversing, USDNOK and USDCHF, are on the cusp of a reversal. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – Canada Jun. Retail Sales 1300 – US Fed’s Barkin (Non-voter) to speak   Source: FX Update: USD surging again, GBP spinning into abyss

Overview:  The dollar is on fire. It is rising against all the major currencies and cutting through key technical levels like a hot knife in butter. The Canadian dollar is the strongest of the majors this week, which often outperforms on the crosses in a strong US dollar environment. It is off 1.5% this week. The New Zealand dollar, where the RBNZ hiked rates this week by 50 bp, is off the most with a 3.5% drop. Emerging market currencies are mostly lower on the day and week as well. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is off for the fifth consecutive session, and ahead of the Latam open, it is off 2.1% this week. Asia Pacific equities were mostly lower, and Europe’s is off around 0.4%. It was flat for the week coming into today. US futures are lower, and the S&P and NASDAQ look poised to snap its four-week advance. Gold, which began the week near $1800 is testing support near $1750 now. Next support is seen around $1744.50. October WTI is consolidating in the upper end of yesterday’s range, which briefly poked above $91. Initial support is pegged near $88. US natgas is softer for the third successive session, but near $9.04 is up about 3.2% for the week. Europe’s benchmark is up 1.7% and brings this week’s gain to almost 20%. Demand concerns weigh on iron ore. It was off marginally today, its fifth loss in six sessions. It tumbled 8.8% this week after a 1.15% gain last week. Copper is up fractionally after rising 1.3% yesterday. September wheat is trying to stabilize. It fell more than 4% yesterday, its fifth loss in a row. It is off around 8.5% this week. Asia Pacific Japan's July CPI continued to rise  Th headline now stands at 2.6%, up from 2.4% in June, up from 0.8% at the start of the year and -0.3% a year ago. The core measure that excludes fresh food accelerated from 2.2% to 2.4%. It is the fourth consecutive month above the 2% target. Excluding both fresh food and energy, Japan's inflation is less than half the headline rate at 1.2%. It was at -0.7% at the end of last year and did not turn positive until April. The BOJ's next meeting is September 22, and despite the uptick in inflation, Governor Kuroda is unlikely to be impressed. Without wage growth, he argues, inflation will prove transitory. With global bond yields rising again, the 10-year, the market may be gearing up to re-challenge the BOJ's 0.25% cap. The yield is finishing the week near 0.20%, its highest since late July. Separately, we note that after divesting foreign bonds in recent months, Japanese investors have returned to the buy side. They have bought foreign bonds for the past four weeks, according to Ministry of Finance data. Last week's JPY1.15 trillion purchases (~$8.5 bln) were the most since last September.  China surprised the markets to begin the week with a 10 bp reduction in the benchmark 1-year medium-term lending facility rate  It now stands at 2.75%. It was the first cut since January, which itself was the first reduction since April 2020. Before markets open Monday, China is expected to announce a 10 bp decline in the 1- and 5-year loan prime rates. That would bring them to 3.60% and 4.35%, respectively. These rates are seen closer to market rates, but the large banks that contribute the quotes are state-owned. There is some speculation that a larger cut in the 5-year rate. The one-year rate was cut in January, but the 5-year rate was cut by 15 bp in May. The dollar is rising against the yen for the fourth consecutive session  It has now surpassed the JPY137.00 area that marks the (61.8%) retracement of the decline from the 24-year high set-in mid-July near JPY139.40. There may be some resistance in the JPY137.00-25 area, but a retest on the previous high looks likely in the period ahead. The Australian dollar is off for the fifth consecutive session and this week's loss of 3% offset last week's gain of as similar magnitude and, if sustained, would be the largest weekly decline since September 2020. The Aussie began the week near $0.7125 and recorded a low today slightly below $0.6890. The $0.6855-70 area is seen as the next that may offer technical support. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.8065 (median in Bloomberg's survey was CNY6.9856). The fix was the lowest for the yuan (strongest for the dollar) since September 2020. Yesterday's high was almost CNY6.7960 and today's low was a little above CNY6.8030. To put the price action in perspective, note that the dollar is approaching the (61.8%) retracement of the yuan's rise from mid-2020 (~CNY7.1780) to this year's low set in March (~CNY6.3065). The retracement is found around CNY6.8250. Europe UK retail sales surprised to the upside but are offering sterling little support  Retail sales including gasoline rose by 0.3% in July. It is the second gain of the year and the most since last October. Excluding auto fuel, retail sales rose by 0.4%, following a 0.2% gain in June. It is the first back-to-back gain since March and April 2021. Sales online surged 4.8% as discounts and promotions drew demand, and internet retailers accounted for 26.3% of all retail sales. Separately, consumer confidence, measured by GfK, slipped lower (-44 from -41), a new record low. Sterling is lower for the third consecutive session and six of the past seven sessions. The swaps market continues to price in a 50 bp rate hike next month and about a 1-in-5 chance of a 75 bp move. Nearly every press report discussing next month's Italian elections cited the fascist roots of the Brothers of Italy, which looks likely to lead the next government  Meloni, who heads up the Brothers of Italy and has outmaneuvered many of her rivals, and may be Italy's next prime minister, plays the roots down. She compares the Brothers of Italy to the Tory Party in the UK, the Likud in Israel, and the Republican Party in the US. The party has evolved, and the center-right alliance she leads no longer wants to leave the EU, it is pro-NATO, and condemns Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The center-right alliance may come close to having a sufficient majority in both chambers to make possible constitutional reform. High on that agenda appears to transform the presidency into a directly elected office. The Italian presidency has limited power under the current configuration, but it has been an important stabilizing factor in crisis. Ironically, the president, picked by parliament, stepped in during the European debt crisis and gave Monti the opportunity to form a technocrat government after Berlusconi was forced to resign in 2011. Fast-forward a decade, a government led by the Conte and the Five Star Movement collapsed and a different Italian president gave Draghi a chance to put together a government. It almost last a year-and-half. Its collapse set the stage for next month's election. The center-left is in disarray and its inability to forge a broad coalition greases the path for Meloni and Co. Italy's 10-year premium over German is at 2.25%, a new high for the month. Last month, it peaked near 2.40%. The two-year premium is wider for the sixth consecutive session. It is near 0.93%, more than twice what it was before the Draghi government collapsed. Some critics argue against the social sciences being science because of the difficulty in conducting experiments  Still an experiment is unfolding front of us. What happens when a central bank completely loses its independence and follows dubious economic logic?  With inflation at more than two decades highs and the currency near record lows, Turkey's central bank surprised everyone by cutting its benchmark rate 100 bp to 13% yesterday. Governor Kavcioglu hinted this was a one-off as it was preempting a possible slowdown in manufacturing. Even though President Erdogan promised in June rates would fall, some observers link the rate cut to the increase in reserves (~$15 bln) recently from Russia, who is building a nuclear plant in Turkey. The decline in oil prices may also help ease pressure on Turkey's inflation and trade deficit. The lira fell to new record-lows against the dollar. The lira is off about 7.5% this quarter and about 26.4% year-to-date. Significant technical damage has been inflicted on the euro and sterling  The euro was sold through the (61.8%) retracement objective of the runup since the mid-July two-decade low near $0.9950. That retracement area (~$1.0110) now offers resistance, and the single currency has not been above $1.01 today. We had suspected the upside correction was over, but the pace of the euro's retreat surprises. There is little from a technical perspective preventing a test on the previous lows. Yesterday, sterling took out the neckline of a potential double top we have been monitoring at $1.20. It is being sold in the European morning and has clipped the $1.1870 area. The low set-in mid-July was near $1.1760, and this is the next obvious target and roughly corresponds to the measuring objective of the double top.  America With no dissents at the Fed to last month's 75 bp hike, one might be forgiven for thinking that there are no more doves  Yet, as we argued even before Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, once regarded as a leading dove, admitted that his dot in June was the most aggressive at 3.90% for year-end, hawk and dove are more meaningful within a context. Kashkari may be more an activist that either a hawk or dove. Daly, the San Francisco Fed President does not vote this year, suggested that a Fed funds target "a little" over 3% this year would be appropriate. She said she favored a 50 bp or a 75 bp move. The current target range is 2.25%-2.50%. and the median dot in June saw a 3.25%-3.50% year-end target. St. Louis Fed President Bullard says he favors another 75 bp hike next month. No surprise there. George, the Kansas, Fed President, dissented against the 75 bp hike in June seemingly because of the messaging around it, but it's tough to call her vote for a 50 bp hike dovish. She voted for the 75 bp move in July. She recognizes the need for additional hikes, and the issue is about the pace. George did not rule out a 75 bp hike while cautioning that policy operates on a lag. Barkin, the Richmond Fed President, also does not vote this year. He is the only scheduled Fed speaker today.  The odds of a 75 bp in September is virtually unchanged from the end of last week around a 50/50 proposition.  The October Fed funds implies a 2.945% average effective Fed funds rate. The actual effective rate has been rocksteady this month at 2.33%. So, the October contract is pricing in 61 bp, which is the 50 bp (done deal) and 11 of the next 25 bp or 44% chance of a 75 hike instead of a half-point move. Next week's Jackson Hole conference will give Fed officials, and especially Chair Powell an opportunity to push back against the premature easing of financial conditions  The better-than-expected Philadelphia Fed survey helps neutralize the dismal Empire State manufacturing survey. The median from Bloomberg's survey looked for improvement to -5 from -12.3. Instead, it was reported at 6.2. Orders jumped almost 20 points to -5.1 and the improvement in delivery times points to the continued normalization of supply chains. Disappointingly, however, the measure of six-month expectations remained negative for the third consecutive month. Still, the plans for hiring and capex improved and the news on prices were encouraging. Prices paid fell to their lowest since the end of 2020 (energy?) and prices received were the lowest since February 2021. The Fed also asked about the CPI outlook. The median sees it at 6% next year down from 6.5% in May. The projected rate over the next 10-years slipped to 3%. Canada and Mexico report June retail sales today  Lift by rising prices, Canada's retail sales have posted an average monthly gain this year of 1.5%. However, after a dramatic 2.2% increase in May, Canadian retail sales are expected (median in Bloomberg' survey) to rise by a modest 0.4%. Excluding autos, retail sales may have held up better. Economists look for a 0.9% increase after a 1.9% rise in May. Through the first five months of the year, Mexico's retail sales have risen by a little more than 0.5% a month. They have risen by a 5.2% year-over-year. Economists expected retail sales to have slowed to a crawl in June and see the year-over-year pace easing to 5.0%. The greenback rose the CAD1.2935 area that had capped it in the first half of the week. It settled near CAD1.2950 yesterday and is pushing closer to CAD 1.2980 now. Above here, immediate potential extends toward CAD1.3035. The US dollar is gaining for the third consecutive session against the Canadian dollar, the longest advancing streak in a couple of months. Support is seen in the CAD1.2940-50 area. The Mexican peso is on its backfoot, and is falling for the fourth session, which ended a six-day rally. The dollar has met out first target near MXN20.20 and is approaching the 20-day moving average (~MXN20.2375). Above there, the next technical target is MXN20.32. The broader dollar gains suggest it may rise above the 200-day moving average against the Brazilian real (~BRL5.2040) and the (38.2%) of the slide since the late July high (~BRL5.5140) that is found near BRL5.2185.    Disclaimer   Source: The Dollar is on Fire

Summary:  Commodities traded with a softer bias this week as the focus continued to rest on global macro-economic developments, in some cases reducing the impact of otherwise supportive micro developments, such as the fall in inventories seen across several individual commodities. Overall, however, we do not alter our long-term views about commodities and their ability to move higher over time, with some of the main reasons being underinvestment, urbanization, green transformation, sanctions on Russia and deglobalization. Commodities traded with a softer bias this week as the focus continued to rest on global macro-economic developments, in some cases reducing the impact of otherwise supportive micro developments, such as the fall in inventories seen across several individual commodities. The dollar found renewed strength and bond yields rose while the month-long bear-market bounce across US stocks showed signs of running out of steam.The trigger being comments from Federal Reserve officials reiterating their resolve to continue hiking rates until inflation eases back to their yet-to-be revised higher long-term target of around 2%. Those comments put to rest expectations that a string of recent weak economic data would encourage the Fed to reduce the projected pace of future rate hikes.The result of these developments being an elevated risk of a global economic slowdown gathering pace as the battle against inflation remains far from won, not least considering the risk of persistent high energy prices, from gasoline and diesel to coal and especially gas. A clear sign that the battle between macro and micro developments continues, the result of which is likely to be a prolonged period of uncertainty with regards to the short- and medium-term outlook.Overall, however, these developments do not alter our long-term views about commodities and their ability to move higher over time. In my quarterly webinar, held earlier this week, I highlighted some of the reasons why we see the so-called old economy, or tangible assets, performing well over the coming years, driven by underinvestment, urbanization, green transformation, sanctions on Russia and deglobalization. Returning to this past week’s performance, we find the 2.3% drop in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, seen above, being in line with the rise in the dollar where gains were recorded against all the ten currencies, including the Chinese renminbi, represented in the index. It is worth noting that EU TTF gas and power prices, which jumped around 23% and 20% respectively, and Paris Milling wheat, which slumped, are not members of the mentioned commodity index.Overall gains in energy led by the refined products of diesel and US natural gas were more than offset by losses across the other sectors, most notably grains led by the slump in global wheat prices and precious metals which took a hit from the mentioned dollar and yield rise. Combating inflation and its impact on growth remains top of mind Apart from China’s slowing growth outlook due to its zero-Covid policy and housing market crisis hitting industrial metals, the most important driver for commodities recently has been the macro-economic outlook currently being dictated by the way in which central banks around the world have been stepping up efforts to curb runaway inflation by forcing down economic activity through aggressively tightening monetary conditions. This process is ongoing and the longer the process takes to succeed, the bigger the risk of an economic fallout. US inflation expectations in a year have already seen a dramatic slump but despite this the medium- and long-term expectations remain anchored around 3%, still well above the Fed’s 2% target.Even reaching the 3% level at this point looks challenging, not least considering elevated input costs from energy. Failure to achieve the target remains the biggest short-term risk to commodity prices with higher rates killing growth, while eroding risk appetite as stock markets resume their decline. These developments, however, remain one of the reasons why we find gold and eventually also silver attractive as hedges against a so-called policy mistake. Global wheat prices tumble The prospect for a record Russian crop and continued flows of Ukrainian grain together with the stronger dollar helped push prices lower in Paris and Chicago. The recently opened corridor from Ukraine has so far this month seen more than 500,000 tons of crops being shipped, and while it's still far below the normal pace, it has nevertheless provided some relief at a time where troubled weather has created a mixed picture elsewhere. The Chicago wheat futures contract touched a January low after breaking $7.75/bu support while the Paris Milling (EBMZ2) wheat traded near the lowest since March. With most of the uncertainties driving panic buying back in March now removed, calmer conditions should return with the biggest unknown still the war in Ukraine and with that the country’s ability to produce and export key food commodities from corn and wheat to sunflower oil. EU gas reaches $73/MMBtu or $415 per barrel of oil equivalent Natural gas in Europe headed for the longest run of weekly gains this year, intensifying the pain for industries and households, while at the same time increasingly threatening to push economies across the region into recession. The recent jump on top of already elevated prices of gas and power, due to low supplies from Russia, has been driven by an August heatwave raising demand while lowering water levels on the river Rhine. This development has increasingly prevented the safe passage of barges transporting coal, diesel and other essentials, while refineries such as Shell’s Rhineland oil refinery in Germany have been forced to cut production. In addition, half of Europe’s zinc and aluminum smelting capacity has been shut, thereby adding support to these metals at a time the market is worried about the demand outlook.An abundance of rain and lower temperatures may in the short term remove some of the recent price strength but overall, the coming winter months remain a major worry from a supply perspective. Not least considering the risk of increased competition from Asia for LNG shipments. Refinery margin jump lends fresh support to crude oil Crude oil, in a downtrend since June, is showing signs of selling fatigue with the technical outlook turning more price friendly while fresh fundamental developments are adding some support as well. Worries about an economic slowdown driven by China’s troubled handling of Covid outbreaks and its property sector problems as well as rapidly rising interest rates were the main drivers behind the selling since March across other commodity sectors before eventually also catching up with crude oil around the middle of June. Since then, the price of Brent has gone through a $28 dollar top to bottom correction. While the macro-economic outlook is still challenged, recent developments within the oil market, so-called micro developments, have raised the risk of a rebound. The mentioned energy crisis in Europe continues to strengthen, the result being surging gas prices making fuel-based products increasingly attractive. This gas-to-fuel switch was specifically mentioned by the IEA in their latest update as the reason for raising their 2022 global oil demand growth forecast by 380k barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Since the report was published, the incentive to switch has increased even more, adding more upward pressure on refinery margins. While pockets of demand weakness have emerged in recent months, we do not expect these to materially impact on our overall price-supportive outlook. Supply-side uncertainties remain too elevated to ignore, not least considering the soon-to-expire releases of crude oil from US Strategic Reserves and the EU embargo of Russian oil fast approaching. In addition, the previously mentioned increased demand for fuel-based products to replace expensive gas. With this in mind, we maintain our $95 to $115 range forecast for the third quarter. Gold and silver struggle amid rising dollar and yields Both metals, especially silver, were heading for a weekly loss after hawkish sounding comments from several FOMC members helped boost the dollar while sending US ten-year bond yields higher towards 3%. It was the lull in both that helped trigger the recovery in recent weeks, and with stock markets having rallied as well during the same time, the demand for gold has mostly been driven by momentum following speculators in the futures market. The turnaround this past week has, as a result of speculators' positioning, been driven by the need to reduce bullish bets following a two-week buying spree which lifted the net futures long by 63k lots or 6.3 million ounces, the strongest pace of buying in six months. ETF holdings meanwhile have slumped to a six-month low, an indication that investors, for now, trust the FOMC’s ability to bring down inflation within a relatively short timeframe. An investor having doubts about this should maintain a long position as a hedge against a policy mistake. Some investors may feel hard done by gold’s negative year-to-date performance in dollars, but taking into account it had to deal with the biggest jump in real yields since 2013 and a surging dollar, its performance, especially for non-dollar investors relative to the losses in bonds and stocks, remains acceptable. In other words, a hedge in gold against a policy mistake or other unforeseen geopolitical events has so far been almost cost free.   Source: WCU: Bearish macro, bullish micro regime persists

For many, this will be the last week of the summer. However, in an unusual twist of the calendar, the US August employment report will be released on September 2, the end of the following week, rather than after the US Labor Day holiday (September 5).   The main economic report of the week ahead will be the preliminary estimate of the August PMI  The policy implications are not as obvious as they may seem. For example, in July, the eurozone composite PMI slipped below the 50 boom/bust level for the first time since February 2021. It was the third consecutive decline. Bloomberg's monthly survey of economists picked up a cut in Q3 GDP forecasts to 0.1% from 0.2% and a contraction of 0.2% in Q4 (previously 0.2% growth). Over the past week, the swaps market has moved from around 80% sure of a 50 bp hike next month to a nearly 20% chance it will lift the deposit rate by 75 bp.  The UK's composite PMI fell in three of the four months through July  However, at 52.1, it remains above the boom/bust level, though it is the weakest since February 2021. The Bank of England's latest forecasts are more pessimistic than the market. It projects the economy will contract by 1.5% next year and another 0.3% in 2024. It has CPI peaking later this year at around 13% before falling to 5.5% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. Market expectations have turned more hawkish for the BOE too. A week ago, the swap market was pricing in a nearly 90% chance of another 50 bp hike. After the CPI jump reported in the middle of last week, the market fully priced in the 50 bp move and a nearly 30% chance of a 75 bp hike.   Japanese officials have successfully turned back market pressure that had driven the benchmark three-month implied volatility to 14% in mid-June, more than twice as high as it was at the start of the year  It slipped below 10% in recent days. The BOJ was forced to vigorously defend its 0.25% cap on the 10-year bond. It has spent the better part of the past three weeks below 0.20%. The BOJ has not had to spend a single yen on its defense since the end of June. However, with the jump in global yields (US 10-year yield rose 20 bp last week, the German Bund 33 bp, and the 10-year UK Gilt nearly 40 bp) and the weakness of the yen, the BOJ is likely to be challenged again.   The economy remains challenging  The composite PMI fell to 50.2 in July from 53.2 in June. It is the weakest reading since February. It has averaged 50.4 through July this year. The average for the first seven months last year was 49.0. The government is working on some support measures aimed at extending the efforts to cushion the blow of higher energy and food prices. Japan's Q2 GDP deflator was minus 0.4%, which was half of the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey, but it shows the tough bind of policy. Consider that the July CPI rose to 2.6%, and the core measure, which the BOJ targets, excludes fresh food, rose to 2.4% from 2.2%. The target is 2%, and it was the third month above it. Tokyo will report its August CPI figures at the end of the week.   Australia's flash PMI may be more influential as the futures market is nearly evenly split between a 25 bp hike and a 50 bp move at the September 6 central bank meeting  The minutes from the RBA's meeting earlier this month underscored its data dependency. However, this is about the pace of the move. The target rate is currently at 1.85%, and the futures market is near 3.15% for the end of the year, well beyond the 2.5% that the central bank sees as neutral. The weakness of China's economy may dent the positive terms-of-trade shock. The Melbourne Institute measure of consumer inflation expectations fell in August for the second month but at 5.9%, is still too high.  Through the statistical quirkiness of GDP-math, the US economy contracted in the first two quarters of the year  A larger trade deficit did not help, but the real problem was inventories. In fairness, more of the nominal growth resulted from higher prices than economists expected rather than underlying activity. Still, it does appear that the US economy is expanding this quarter, and the high-frequency data will help investors and economists assess the magnitude. While surveys are helpful, the upcoming real sector data include durable goods orders (and shipments, which feed into GDP models), July personal income and consumption figures, the July goods trade balance, and wholesale and retail inventories.   Consumption still drives more than 2/3 of the economy, and like retail sales, personal consumption expenditures are reported in nominal terms, which means that they are inflated by rising prices  However, the PCE deflator is expected to slow dramatically. After jumping 1% in June, the headline deflator is expected to increase by 0.1%. This will allow the year-over-year rate to slow slightly (~6.5% from 6.8%). The core deflator is forecast (median, Bloomberg's survey) to rise by 0.4%, which given the base effect, could see the smallest of declines in the year-over-year rate that stood at 4.8% in June. Given the Fed's revealed preferences when it cited the CPI rise in the decision in June to hike by 75 bp instead of 50 bp, the CPI has stolen the PCE deflator's thunder, even though the Fed targets the PCE deflator. Real consumption was flat in Q2, and Q3 is likely to have begun on firmer footing.   The softer than expected CPI, PPI, and import/export prices spurred the market into downgrading the chances of a 75 bp hike by the Fed next month  After the stronger than expected jobs growth, the Fed funds futures priced in a little better than a 75% chance of a 75 bp hike. It has been mostly hovering in the 40%-45% range most of last week but finished near 55%. It is becoming a habit for the market to read the Fed dovishly even though it is engaged in a more aggressive course than the markets anticipated. This market bias warns of the risk of a market reversal after Powell speaks on August 26.   At the end of last year, the Fed funds futures anticipated a target rate of about 0.80% at the end of this year. Now it says 3.50%. The pace of quantitative tightening is more than expected and will double starting next month. There is also the tightening provided by the dollar's appreciation. For example, at the end of 2021, the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey saw the euro finishing this year at $1.15. Now the median sees the euro at $1.04 at the end of December. And even this may prove too high.    The FOMC minutes from last month's meeting recognized two risks. The first was that the Fed would tighten too much. Monetary policy impacts with a lag, which also acknowledges that soft-landing is difficult to achieve. The market initially focused on this risk as is its wont. However, the Fed also recognized the risk of inflation becoming entrenched and characterized this risk as "significant." The Jackson Hole confab (August 25-27) will allow the Fed to help steer investors and businesses between Scylla and Charybdis.  Critics jumped all over Fed Chair Powell's claim that the Fed funds target is now in the area the officials regard as neutral. This was not a forecast by the Chair, but merely a description of the long-term target rate understood as neither stimulating nor restricting the economy. In June, all but three Fed officials saw the long-term rate between 2.25% and 2.50%. To put that in perspective, recall that in December 2019, the median view of the long-term target was 2.50%. Eleven of the 18 Fed officials put their "dot" between 2.25% and 2.50%. The FOMC minutes were clear that a restrictive stance is necessary, and the Fed clearly signaled additional rate hikes are required. The discussions at Jackson Hole may clarify what the neutral rate means.  Barring a significant downside surprise, we expect the Fed will deliver its third consecutive 75 bp increase next month. The strength and breadth of the jobs growth while price pressures remain too high and financial conditions have eased encourages the Fed to move as fast as the market allows. However, before it meets, several important high-frequency data points will be revealed, including a few employment measures, the August nonfarm payroll report, and CPI.   The market is also having second thoughts about a rate cut next year  At the end of July, the implied yield of the December 2023 Fed funds futures was 50 bp below the implied yield of the December 2022 contract. It settled last week at near an 8 bp discount. This reflects a growing belief that the Fed will hike rates in Q1 23. The March 2023 contract's implied yield has risen from less than five basis points more than the December 2022 contract to more than  20 bp above it at the end of last week.   Let's turn to the individual currency pairs, put last week's price action into the larger context, and assess the dollar's technical condition  We correctly anticipated the end of the dollar's pullback that began in mid-July, but the power for the bounce surprises. Key technical levels have been surpassed, warning that the greenback will likely retest the July highs.   Dollar Index: DXY surged by more than 2.3% last week, its biggest weekly advance since March 2020. The momentum indicators are constructive and not over-extended. However, it closed well above the upper Bollinger Band (two standard deviations above the 20-day moving average), found near 107.70. Little stands in the way of a test on the mid-July high set around 109.30. Above there, the 110-111.30 area beckons. While the 107.50 area may offer some support now, a stronger floor may be found closer to 107.00.   Euro:  The euro was turned back from the $1.0365-70 area on August 10-11 and put in a low near $1.0030 ahead of the weekend. The five-day moving average slipped below the 20-day moving average for the first time in around 3.5 weeks. The MACD is trending lower, while the Slow Stochastic did not confirm the recent high, leaving a bearish divergence in its wake. The only caution comes from the euro's push through the lower Bollinger Band (~$1.0070). Initially, parity may hold, but the risk is a retest on the mid-July $0.9950 low. A convincing break could target the $0.96-$0.97 area. As the euro has retreated, the US two-year premium over Germany has trended lower. It has fallen more than 30 bp since peaking on August 5. We find that the rate differential often peaks before the dollar.   Japanese Yen: The dollar will begin the new week with a four-day advance against the yen in tow. It has surpassed the (61.8%) retracement objective of the pullback since the mid-July high (~JPY139.40) found near JPY136.00. The momentum indicators are constructive, and the five-day moving average has crossed above the 20-day for the first time since late July. It tested the lower band of the next resistance bans seen in the JPY137.25-50 area at the end of last week. But it appears poised to re-challenge the highs. As volatility increases and yields rise, Japanese officials return to their first line of defense: verbal intervention.  British Pound: Sterling took out the neckline of a possible double top we have been monitoring that came in at $1.20. It projects toward the two-year lows set in mid-July near $1.1760, dipping below $1.18 ahead of the weekend. As one would expect, the momentum indicators are headed lower, and the five-day moving average has fallen below the 20-day moving average for the first time in four weeks. It has closed below its lower Bollinger Band (~$1.1910) in the last two sessions. A convincing break of the $1.1760 low clears the way to the March 2020 low, about 3.5-cents lower. Initial resistance is now seen around $1.1860 and, if paid, could signal scope for another 3/4 to a full-cent squeeze.  Canadian Dollar:  The Canadian dollar was no match for the greenback, which moved above CAD1.30 ahead of the weekend for the first time in a month. The momentum indicators suggest the US dollar has more scope to advance, and the next target is the CAD1.3035 area. Above there, the CAD1.3100-35 band is next. The high since November 2020 was recorded in the middle of July around CAD1.3225. After whipsawing in Q1, the five- and 20-day moving averages have caught the big moves. The shorter average crossed above the longer moving average last week for the first time since July 21. Initial support will likely be encountered near CAD1.2935.   Australian Dollar:  The Aussie was sold every day last week. It is the first time in a year, and its 3.4% drop is the largest since September 2020.   The rally from the mid-July low (~$0.6680) to the recent high (~$0.7135) looks corrective in nature. Before the weekend, it tested the rally's (61.8%) retracement objective. The momentum indicators are falling, and the Slow Stochastic did not confirm this month's high, creating a bearish divergence. A break of the $0.6850-60 area may signal follow-through selling into the $0.6790-$0.6800 band, but a retest on the July low is looking increasingly likely. Initial resistance is now seen near $0.6920.   Mexican Peso:  The peso's four-day slide ended a six-day run. The peso lost about 1.6% last week, slightly better than the 2.25% slide of the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index. This month, the US dollar peaked around MXN20.8335 and proceeded to fall and forged a base near MXN19.81. It has met the (38.2%) retracement objective around MXN20.20 before the weekend. The next (50%) retracement is near MXN20.3230. The 200-day moving average is closer to MXN20.41. The dollar is probing the 20-day moving average seen a little below MXN20.24. The momentum indicators have only just turned up for the greenback. We suspect there may be potential to around MXN20.50 in the coming days.   Chinese Yuan:  The yuan was tagged with more than a 1% loss against the dollar last week, its biggest decline in three months. A combination of poor Chinese data, its small rate cut, and a resurgent US dollar spurred the exchange rate adjustment. At the end of July, China's 10-year yield was about 11 bp on top of the US. However, it switched to a discount after the US jobs data (August 5), and the discount grew every day last week, reaching 35 bp, the most since late June. After gapping higher before the weekend, the greenback reached nearly CNY6.8190, its highest level since September 2020. The next target is around CNY6.85, but given the divergence of policy, a move back toward CNY7.00, last seen in July 2020, maybe a reasonable medium-term target. The PBOC's dollar fix ahead of the weekend showed no protest of the weaker exchange rate.     Disclaimer   Source: Flash PMI, Jackson Hole, and the Price Action

Summary:  The dollar story will face a fresh test this week as the central bankers gather for the Jackson Hole symposium from August 25 to 27. We can expect some more push back on the 2023 easing expectations, and this could also mean some upside in US Treasury yields. July PCE due at the end of the week will likely be side-lined by the event, and any gasoline-driven easing should have little relevance. In Europe, the gas situation remains on watch and the July PMIs will likely spell more caution. China’s LPR cuts this morning have signalled a stronger support to the property markets, but the Covid situation and the power curbs continue to cloud the outlook. Earnings pipeline remains robust, key ones being Palo Alto, Nvidia and Intuit, followed by a few discount retailers like Dollar General and Dollar Tree in the U.S., and China Internet companies, JD.COM, and Meituan.   US dollar awaiting its next signals from the Jackson Hole There is a considerable tension between the market’s forecast for the economy and the resulting expected path of Fed policy for the rest of this year and particularly next year, as the market believes that a cooling economy and inflation will allow the Fed to reverse course and cut rates in a “soft landing” environment (the latter presumably because financial conditions have eased aggressively since June, suggesting that markets are not fearing a hard landing/recession). Some Fed members have tried to push back against the market’s expectations for Fed rate cuts next year it was likely never the Fed’s intention to allow financial conditions to ease so swiftly and deeply as they have in recent weeks. The risks, therefore, point to a Fed that may mount a more determined pushback at the Jackson Hole forum, the Fed’s yearly gathering at Jackson Hole, Wyoming that is often used to air longer term policy guidance. This will have further implications for the US dollar, which is threatening the cycle highs versus sterling, the euro and on the comeback trail against the Japanese yen as well. The US dollar is a barometer of global liquidity, and a continued rise would eventually snuff out the improvement in financial conditions we have seen since the June lows in equity markets, particularly if longer US treasury yields are also unmoored from their recent range and rise back to 3.00% or higher. Europe and UK PMIs may spell further caution The Euro-area flash composite PMI and the UK flash PMI for August are both due to be released on Tuesday. Following a slide in ZEW and Sentix indicators for July, the stage is set for a weaker outcome on the PMIs too. July composite PMI for the Euro-area dipped into contractionary territory at 49.9, while the UK measure held up at 52.1. The surge in gas and electricity prices continue to weigh on GDP growth outlook, with recession likely to hit by the end of the year. More price pressures to come to Asia Singapore's inflation likely nudged higher in July, coming in close proximity to 7% levels from 6.7% y/y in June. While both food and fuel costs continue to create upside pressures on inflation, demand-side pressures are also increasing as the region moves away from virus curbs. House rentals are also running high due to high demand and delayed construction limiting supplies. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has tightened monetary policy but more tightening moves can be expected in H2 even as the growth outlook has been downwardly revised. We also get Japan's Tokyo CPI for August, which is likely to suggest further gains above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Consensus expectations point toward another higher print of 2.7% y/y for the headline measure and 2.5% y/y on the core measure, signalling inflationary pressures will continue to question the Bank of Japan's resolve on the ultra-easy policy stance. Malaysia’s July inflation is also due at the end of the week, and likely to go above the 4%-mark from 3.4% previously. Softer July US PCE print would not derail Fed’s tightening After a softer CPI report in July, focus will turn to the PCE measure – the version of the CPI that is tracked by the Fed to gauge price pressures. Lower gasoline prices mean that PCE prints could also see some relief, although we still upside pressures to inflation given that energy shortages will likely persist and easing financial conditions mean that inflation could return. We would suggest not to read too much into a softer PCE print this week, as the stickier shelter and services prices mean that the 2% inflation target of the Fed remains unachievable into then next year. This suggests that the aggressive tightening by the Fed will likely continue, despite any likely softness in the PCE this week. Housing markets, Covid-19 cases, and power curbs are key things to watch in China this week The data calendar is light in China this week with only July industrial profits data scheduled to release on Saturday.  This morning, China’s National Interbank Fund Center, based on quotes from banks and under the supervision of the PBoC, fixed the 1-year loan prime rate (“LPR”) 5 bps lower at 3.60% and the 5-year loan prime rates (“LPR”) 15 basis points lower at 4.30%.  The larger reduction in the 5-year LPR, which is the benchmark against which mortgage loan rates in China are set, may signal stronger support from the PBoC to the housing market.  Last Friday the Housing Ministry, the Ministry of Finance, and the PBoC, according to Xinhua News, jointly rolled out a program to make special loans through policy banks to support the delivery of presold residential housing projects which are facing difficulties in completion due to lack of funding.  Investors will monitor closely this week to gauge if there is additional information about the size of the program and if the PBoC will print money to fund it.  As daily locally transmitted new cases of Covid-19 in China persistently surged and stayed above 2,000 since August 12, 2022, the market will watch the development closely and how it will affect the economy.   In addition to the pandemic, power shortage in the Sichuan province and some other areas in China due to unusually high temperature (higher power consumption for air-conditioning) and drought (which affects hydropower output), investors are assessing the impact of the government-imposed power rationing for industrial users on production, in particular the auto industry and consumer electronics industry in the affected areas. Key earnings this week On Monday, investors will scrutinize the results from Palo Alto Networks (PANW:xnas) in the U.S. to gauge the latest business development in the security software industry, which has drawn much attention this year as cybersecurity has become a focus. Intuit (INTU:xnas) is scheduled to report on Tuesday and its results may provide information about the small and medium-sized businesses that the company focuses in it business.  After a disappointing preannouncement earlier in the month, the bar for Nvidia (NVDA:xnas)’s earnings release this Wednesday may be low.  In HK/China, the results from the Postal Savings Bank of China may provide the market with some insights into the state of the Chinese banking system, especially situations outside the top-tier cities. JD.COM (09618:xhkg/JD:xnas) on Tuesday and Meituan (03690:xhkg) on Friday will be the focus of investors monitoring the business trend of eCommerce and delivery platforms in China.  Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week Monday, Aug 22 South Korea: Exports (Aug, first 20 days)Hong Kong: CPI (Jul)   Tuesday, Aug 23 United States: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Aug, preliminary)United States: S&P Global US Services PMI (Aug, preliminary)Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Aug)Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Aug)United Kingdom: PMI Manufacturing (Aug), PMI Services (Aug)Japan: PMI Manufacturing (Aug)Singapore: CPI (Jul) Wednesday, Aug 24 United States: Durable Goods Orders (Jul, preliminary)United States: Pending Home Sales (Jul) Thursday, Aug 25 United States: GDP (Q2, second)United States: Initial Jobless Claims (Aug)United States: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (Aug)United States: Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug 25 to 27)Germany: IFO Survey (Aug)France: Business Confidence (Aug)South Korea: Bank of Korea Policy Meeting Friday, Aug 26 United States: Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator & PCE Core Deflator (Jul)United States: U of Michigan Sentiment Survey (Aug, final)United States: Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole SymposiumFrance: Consumer Confidence (Aug)Eurozone: M3 (Jul)Italy: Consumer Confidence (Aug)Italy: Economic Sentiment (Aug)Tokyo: Tokyo-area CPI (Aug)Singapore: Industrial Production (Jul) Saturday, Aug 27 China: Industrial Profits (Jul) Key earnings releases this week Monday: Postal Savings Bank of China (01658:xhkg), Palo Alto Networks (PANW:xnas) Tuesday: Medtronic (MDT:xnys), Intuit (INTU:xnas), JD.COM (09618:xhkg/JD:xnas), JD Logistics (02615:xhkg), Kingsoft (03888:xhkg), Kuaishou (01024:xhkg) Wednesday: PetroChina (00857:xhkg), Ping An Insurance (02318:xhkg), Nongfu Spring (09633:xhkg), LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012:xssc), Pinduooduo (PDD:xnas), Nvidia (NVDA:xnas), Salesforce (CRM:xnys), JD Health (06618:xhkg) Thursday: AIA (01299:hkgs), Wulinagye Yibin (000858:xsec), China Life Insurance (02628:xhkg), CNOOC (00883:xhkg), Dollar General (DG:xnys), NIO (09866:xhkg/NIO:xnas) Friday: Meituan (03690:xhkg), China Shenhua (01088:xhkg), Sinopec (00386:xhkg)    Source: Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week?

Summary:  Equities closed last week on the defensive as a rising US dollar and especially US treasuries weighed. The US 10-year yield is threatening the 3.00% level for the first time in a month ahead of the important US July PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. How forcefully will Powell push back against the virtual melt-up in financial conditions after the market felt the Fed pivoted to less tightening at the July meeting?   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures are still rolling over as the US 10-year yield zoomed to 3% on Friday with the index futures trading just above the 4,200 level this morning. The next levels on the downside sit around the 4,100 to 4,170 range, but in the longer term the 4,000 level is the big level to watch. Energy markets are still sending inflationary signals which is key to watch for sentiment this week. In terms of earnings, Palo Alto Networks and Zoom Video will report earnings. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Hang Seng Index and CSI300 were moderately higher, +0.2% and +0.8% respectively. Chinese developers gained on today’s larger-than-expected cut in the 5-year loan prime rate and last Friday’s report that the PBoC, jointly with the Housing Ministry and the Ministry of Finance to roll out a program to make special loans through policy banks to support the delivery of stalled residential housing projects. Great Wall Motor (02333:xhkg) soared 11%. In A-shares, auto names were among stocks that outperformed. Xiaomi (01810:xhkg) dropped 3% after reporting Q2 revenues -20% YoY and net profit -67% YoY, largely in line with expectations.  US dollar dominates focus in forex this week The US dollar rally picked up speed last week, with key levels falling in a number of USD pairs last week that now serve as resistance, including 1.0100 in EURUSD and 1.2000 in GBPUSD, both of which now serve as resistance/USD support. A significant break of EURUSD parity will likely add further psychological impact, and more practically, an upside break in yields at the longer end of the US yield curve is playing a supportive roll, one that will intensify its driving roll if the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield follows through higher above the 3.00% level it touched in trading overnight. A complete sweep of USD strength also threatens on any significant follow through higher in USDCNH as it threatens an upside break here (more below). The next key event risk for the US dollar arrives with this Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium speech from Fed Chair Powell (preview below). USDCNH Broad USD strength is helping to drive a move to new cycle highs above 6.84 as the week gets underway, but CNH is not weak in other pairings with G10 currencies, quite the contrary. Still, a move in this critical exchange rate will remain a focus, and the contrast between an easing PBOC (moving once again overnight) and tightening central banks nearly everywhere else is stark. The USDCNH moving higher will receive considerable additional focus if the 7.00 level. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil turned lower in the Asian overnight after modest gains last week as the focus continues to alter between demand destruction fears and persistent supply shortages. Fears of an economic slowdown reducing demand remains invisible in the physical market but it has nevertheless seen crude oil give up all the post Russia invasion gains while speculators or hedge funds have cut bullish bets on WTI and Brent to the lowest since April 2020. WTI futures trades back below $90/barrel while Brent futures dipped below $96. Still, the gas-to-fuel switch led by record gas prices in Europe has seen refinery margins strengthen again lately and it now adds to the fundamental price-supportive factors. Focus may turn back to Iranian supply early in the week though, with reports that a deal is ‘imminent’. Cryptocurrencies The crypto market took a major hit on Friday with the total crypto market cap diving by more than 9 %, but prices have stabilized over the weekend. The total market cap is now close to the psychological $1 trillion level. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) Rising US Treasury yields are pushing back against the strong improvement in financial conditions of recent weeks after the US 10-year Treasury yield benchmark jumped to new highs on Friday, well clear of the prior range after a few teases higher earlier in the week and bumping up against the psychologically key 3.00% level. Any follow through higher toward the 3.50% area highs of the cycle would likely add further pressure to financial conditions and risk sentiment more broadly. What is going on? German PPI shocks on the upside Germany’s July PPI smashed expectations to come in at 5.3% MoM, the biggest single gain since the Federal Republic started compiling its data in 1949 and above the consensus estimate of 0.7%. The data suggests potentially a lot more room on the upside to Eurozone inflation, and a lot more pain for German industries. European PMIs due this week will gather attention, as will Germany’s IFO numbers. Berkshire Hathaway wins approval to acquire Occidental Petroleum Warren Buffett’s industrial conglomerate that recently increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum to over 20% following the US Climate & Tax bill which adds more runway for oil and gas companies has now won regulatory approval for acquiring more than 50% the oil and gas company. This means that Berkshire Hathaway is warming up to its biggest acquisition since its Burlington acquisition. The power shortage in China China is currently being hit by a heatwave with a large part of the country experiencing -degree Celsius temperatures since the beginning of August. The surge in air conditioning caused electricity consumption to soar. To make things worse, drought has reduced hydropower output.  Some provinces and municipalities, especially Sichuan, are curbing electricity supply to industrial users in order to ensure electricity supply for residential use. This has caused disruptions to manufacturing production and added to the headwinds faced by the Chinese economy. China cut its 5-year loan prime rate loan prime more than expected China’s National Interbank Fund Center, based on quotes from banks and under the supervision of the PBoC, fixed the 1-year loan prime rate (“LPR”) 5 bps lower at 3.60% and the 5-year loan prime rates (“LPR”) 15 basis points lower at 4.30%. The larger-than-expected reduction in the 5-year LPR, which is the benchmark against which mortgage loan rates in China are set at a spread, may signal stronger support from the PBoC to the housing market.  The Chinese authorities are coming to the developers’ aid in delivering pre-sold homes Last Friday the Housing Ministry, the Ministry of Finance, and the PBoC, according to Xinhua News, jointly rolled out a program to make special loans through policy banks to support the delivery of presold residential housing projects which are facing difficulties in completion due to lack of funding.  Investors will monitor closely this week to gauge if there is additional information about the size of the program and if the PBoC will print money to fund it.  The resurgence of Covid cases in China Daily locally transmitted new cases of Covid-19 in China persistently stated above 2,000 since August 12, 2022, with Hainan, Tibet, and Xinjiang being the regions most impacted. The constituent companies of the Hang Seng Index will increase to 73 from 69 Hang Seng Indexes Company announced last Friday to add China Shenhua Energy (01088:xhkg), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (01929:xhkg), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03693:xhkg), and Baidu (09888:xhkg) to the Hang Seng Index, bringing the latter’s number of constituent companies to 73 from 69. The changes will take effect on September 5, 2022. In addition, SenseTime (00020:xhkg) will replace China Pacific Insurance (02601:xhkg) as a constituent company of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index.  Australian share market at a pivotal point After rising for five straight weeks including last week's 1.2% lift, many market participants hold their breath this rally will continue. However, standing in the way are profit results from a quarter of the ASX200 companies to be released this week. For the final week of profit results, we hear from Qantas (Australia's largest airline), Whitehaven Coal (Australia's largest coal company), as well as other stocks that are typically held in Australian superannuation funds; including Coles, Woolworths, Wesfarmers, Endeavour. And lastly about 20 companies trade ex-dividend this week, however they are not expected to move the market's needle. Money managers increased their commodity exposure for a third week to August 16 The Commitment of Traders (COT) Report covering positions and changes made by money managers in commodities to the week ending August 16 showed a third week of net buying with funds adding 123k lots to 988k lots, a seven-week high. The buying was broad led by natural gas, sugar, cattle and grains with most of the selling concentrated in crude oil and gold. More in our weekly update out later. Prior to the latest recovery in price and positions hedge funds had been net sellers for months after holding 2.6 million lots at the start of the year. What are we watching next? USD and US Treasury yields as Jackson Hole Fed conference is the macro event risk of the week Friday The US dollar strengthened sharply, with EURUSD challenging near parity, USDCNH breaking higher today after another PBOC rate cut, and USDJPY not far from cycle highs. US Treasury yields have supported the move with the entire curve lifting over the last couple of weeks and longer yields pulling to new local highs last week. The Fed has pushed back consistently against the market’s pricing of a Fed turnaround to easing rates next year with partial success, as expectations for rate cuts have shifted farther out the curve and from higher levels. This week, the key test for markets is up on Friday as the US reports the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the July PCE inflation data, while Fed Chair Powell will also speak on Friday, offering the most important guidance on how the Fed feels about how it feels the market understands its intentions.   Earnings to watch Plenty of important earnings releases this week with the largest ones listed below. Today’s key focus is Palo Alto Networks, Zoom Video, and XPeng. Cyber security stocks have done reasonably well over the past year despite valuations coming down as demand is still red hot, Analysts expect Palo Alto Networks to report revenue growth of 27% y/y. Zoom Video, which was the pandemic superstar, is also reporting today with estimates looking for 9% revenue growth, down considerably from 54% y/y growth just a year ago. Monday: Palo Alto Networks, Zoom Video, XPeng Tuesday: CATL, Intuit, Medtronic, JD.com Wednesday: LONGi Green Energy, Royal Bank of Canada, PetroChina, Ping An Insurance Group, Nongfu Spring, Mowi, Nvidia, Salesforce, Pinduoduo, Snowflake, Autodesk Thursday: South32, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Fortum, Delivery Hero, AIA Group, China Life Insurance, CNOOC, CRH, Dollar General, Vmware, Marvell Technology, Workday, Dollar Tree, Dell Technologies, NIO Friday: Meituan, China Shenhua Energy, China Petroleum & Chemical Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Switzerland SNB weekly sight deposits 1230 – US Jul. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 2300 – Australia Aug. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI 0030 – Japan Aug. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – August 22, 2022

The Canadian dollar is coming off a rough week, as USD/CAD climbed 1.70%. In today’s European session, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.30 line. Canadian retail sales beats estimate Canadian retail sales jumped 1.1% in June, which was much stronger than the 0.3% forecast. Still, this was lower than the May reading of 2.3%. Core retail sales dropped to 0.8%, just shy of the 0.9% estimate and below the May release of 1.9%. Consumers are feeling the pain from high inflation and rising interest rates and are cutting back on spending. The downtrend is expected to continue, with Stats Canada forecasting a -0.2% reading for headline retail sales in July. The Bank of Canada continues to play catch up with inflation and delivered a mega-hike of 100 basis points in July. Inflation slowed to 7.6% in July, down from 8.1% in June. However, the Bank’s preferred inflation indicator for core inflation rose to 5.5% in July, up from 5.3% in June. It’s too early to tell if inflation has peaked, but the steep rate-tightening cycle has slowed growth. The BoC has slashed its growth forecast for 2022 to 3.5%, down from a previous estimate of 4.2%, stating this was due to the impact of high inflation and tighter conditions on consumption and household spending. The BoC meets on September 7th and is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points. Federal Reserve Chair Powell will host a central banking conference in Jackson Hole this week. It will be another opportunity for the Fed to reiterate its message that inflation is far from being beaten and it has no plans to stop raising rates even if growth has slowed. The markets jumped on the drop in inflation in July, and speculation rose that the Fed might U-turn on its aggressive policy. I expect Powell to engage in some “push-back” and try to convince the market that the Fed is committed to taming inflation and will continue to raise rates to achieve this goal. USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.3080 and 1.3167 USD/CAD has support at 1.2921 and 1.2834 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Cdn. dollar down despite solid retail sales - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Summary:  Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to August 16. A week that potentially saw a cycle peak in US stocks and where the dollar and treasury yields both traded calmly before pushing higher. Commodities meanwhile continued their recent recovery with funds being net buyers of most contracts, the major exceptions being gold and crude oil Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to August 16. A week that potentially saw a cycle peak in US stocks with the S&P 500 reversing lower after reaching a four-month high, and where the dollar and treasury yields both traded calm before pushing higher. Commodities meanwhile continued their recent recovery with all sectors, except precious metals and grains recording gains. Commodities Hedge funds were net buyers for a third week with the total net long across the 24 major commodity futures tracked in this update rising by 14% to reach a seven week high at 988k lots. Some 56% below the recent peak reached in late February before Russia’s attack on Ukraine drove an across-the-board volatility spike which forced funds to reduce their exposure. Since then and up until early July, worries about a global economic slowdown, caused by a succession of rapid rate hikes in order to kill inflation, was one of the key reasons for the slump in speculative length.Returning to last week, the 123k lot increase was split equally between new longs being added and short positions being scaled back, and overall the net increase was broad led by natural gas, sugar, cattle and grains with most of the selling being concentrated in crude oil and gold. Energy: Weeks of crude oil selling continued with the combined net long in WTI and Brent falling by 26k lots to 278k lots, the lowest belief in rising prices since April 2020. Back then the market had only just began recovering the Covid related energy shock which briefly sent prices spiraling lower. While funds continued to sell crude oil in anticipation of an economic slowdown the refined product market was sending another signal with refinery margins on the rise again, partly due surging gas prices making refined alternatives, such as diesel, look cheap. As a result, the net long in ICE gas oil was lifted by 24% to 62k lots while RBOB gasoline and to a lesser extent ULSD also saw net buying. The net short in Henry Hub natural gas futures was cut by 55% as the price jumped by 19%. Metals: Renewed weakness across investment metals triggered a mixed response from traders with gold seeing a small reduction in recently established longs while continued short covering reduced bearish bets in silver, platinum and palladium. With gold resuming its down move after failing to find support above $1800, the metal has been left exposed to long liquidation from funds which in the previous two weeks had bought 63.3k lots. Copper’s small 1% gain on the week supported some additional short covering, but overall the net short has stayed relatively stable around 16k lots for the past six weeks. Agriculture: Speculators were net buyers of grains despite continued price weakness following the latest supply and demand report from the US Department of Agriculture on August 12, and after shipments of grains from Ukraine continued to pick up speed. From a near record high above 800k lots on April 19, the net long across six major crop futures went on to slump by 64% before buyers began dipping their toes back in to the market some three weeks ago. Buying was concentrated in bean oil and corn while the wheat sector remained challenged with the net long in Kansas wheat falling to a 2-year low. The four major softs contract saw strong buying led by sugar after funds flipped their position back to a 13.4k lots net long. The cocoa short was reduced by 10% while the coffee long received a 25% boost. Cotton’s 18% surge during the week helped lift the long by 35% to 44.7k lots.     Forex A mixed week in forex left the speculative dollar long close to unchanged against ten IMM futures and the DXY. Selling of euro saw the net short reach a fresh 2-1/2-year high at 42.8k lots or €5.3 billion equivalent while renewed selling of JPY, despite trading higher during the reporting week, made up most of the increase in dollar length. Against these we saw short covering reduce CHF, GBP and MXN short while CAD net long reached a 14-month high.    What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming   Source: COT: Gold and oil left out as funds return to commodities

Overview: The euro traded below parity for the second time this year and sterling extended last week’s 2.5% slide. While the dollar is higher against nearly all the emerging market currencies, it is more mixed against the majors. The European currencies have suffered the most, except the Norwegian krone. The dollar-bloc and yen are also slightly firmer. The week has begun off with a risk-off bias. Nearly all the large Asia Pacific equity markets were sold. Chinese indices were a notable exception following a cut in the loan prime rates. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off by around 1.20%, the most in a month. US futures are more than 1% lower. The Asia Pacific yield rose partly in catch-up to the pre-weekend advance in US yields, while today, US and European benchmark 10-year yields are slightly lower. The UK Gilt stands out with a small gain. Gold is being sold for the sixth consecutive session and has approached the (61.8%) retracement of the rally from last month’s low (~$1680) that is found near $1730. October WTI is soft below $90, but still inside the previous session’s range. US natgas is up 2.4% to build on the 1.6% gain seen before the weekend. It could set a new closing high for the year. Gazprom’s announcement of another shutdown of its Nord Stream 1 for maintenance sent the European benchmark up over 15% today. It rose almost 20.3% last week. Iron ore rose for the first time in six sessions, while September copper is giving back most of the gains scored over the past two sessions. September wheat rallied almost 3% before the weekend and is off almost 1% now.  Asia Pacific Following the 10 bp reduction in benchmark one-year Medium-Term Lending Facility Rate at the start of last week, most observers expected Chinese banks to follow-up with a cut in the loan prime rates today  They delivered but in a way that was still surprising. The one-year loan prime rate was shaved by five basis points to 3.65%, not even matching the MLF reduction. On the other hand, the five-year loan prime rate was cut 15 bp to 4.30%. This seems to signal the emphasis on the property market, as mortgages are tied to the five-year rate, while short-term corporate loans are linked to the shorter tenor. The five-year rate was last cut in May and also by 15 bp. Still, these are small moves, and given continued pressures on the property sector, further action is likely, even if not immediately. In addition to the challenges from the property market and the ongoing zero-Covid policy, the extreme weather is a new headwind to the economy. The focus is on Sichuan, one of the most populous provinces and a key hub for manufacturing, especially EV batteries and solar panels. It appears that the aluminum smelters (one million tons of capacity) have been completed halted. The drought is exacerbating a local power shortage. Rainfall along the Yangtze River is nearly half of what is normally expected. Hydropower accounts for a little more than 80% of Sichuan power generation and the output has been halved. Officials have extended the power cuts that were to have ended on August 20 to August 25. Factories in Jiangsu and Chongqing are also facing outages. According to reports, Shanghai's Bund District turned off its light along the waterfront. Japan's Prime Minister Kishida tested positive for Covid over the weekend  He will stay in quarantine until the end of the month. In addition to his physical health, Kishida's political health may become an issue. Support for his government has plunged around 16 percentage points from a month ago to slightly more than 35% according to a Mainchi newspaper poll conducted over the weekend. The drag appears not to be coming from the economy but from the LDP's ties with the Unification Church. Meanwhile, Covid cases remain near record-highs in Japan, with almost 24.8k case found in Tokyo alone yesterday. Others are also wrestling with a surge in Covid cases. Hong Kong's infections reached a new five-month high, for example. The dollar reached nearly JPY137.45 in Tokyo before pulling back to JPY136.70 in early European turnover  It is the fifth session of higher highs and lows for the greenback. The upper Bollinger Band (two standard deviations above the 20-day moving average) is near JPY137.55 today. We suspect the dollar can re-challenge the session high in North America today. The Australian dollar is proving resilient today after plunging 3.45% last week. It is inside the pre-weekend range (~$0.6860-$0.6920). Still, we like it lower. Initial support is now seen around $0.6880, and a break could spur another test on the lows. That pre-weekend low coincides with the (61.8%) retracement of the rally from last month's low (~$0.6680) to the high on August 11 (~$0.7135). The Chinese yuan slumped to new lows for the year today. For the second consecutive session, the dollar gapped higher and pushed through CNY6.84. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.8198. While this was lower than the CNY6.8213, it is not seen as much as a protest as an at attempt to keep the adjustment orderly. Europe Gazprom gave notice at the end of last week that gas shipments through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would be stopped for three days (August 31-September 2) for maintenance  The European benchmark rose nearly 20.3% last week and 27% this month. It rose 35.2% last month and 65.5% in June. The year-to-date surge has been almost 380%. The energy shock seems sure to drive Europe into a recession. The flash August PMI out tomorrow is expected to see the composite falling further below the 50 boom/bust level. Bundesbank President Nagel, who will be attending the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of this week recognized the risk of recession but still argued for the ECB rate increases to anchor inflation expectations. The record from last month's ECB meeting will be published on Thursday. There are two keys here. First, is the color than can be gleaned from the threshold for using the new Transmission Protection Instrument. Second, the ECB lifted its forward guidance, which we argue is itself a type of forward guidance. Is there any insight into how it is leaning? The swaps market prices in another 50 bp hike, but a slight chance of a 75 bp move. The German 10-year breakeven (difference between the yield of the inflation linked bond and the conventional security) has been rising since last July and approached 2.50% last week  It has peaked in early May near 3% before dropping to almost 2% by the end of June. It is notable that Italy's 10-year breakeven, which has begun rising again since the third week of July, is almost 25 bp less than Germany. Several European countries, including Germany and Italy, have offered subsidies or VAT tax cut on gasoline that have offset some of the inflation pressures. Nagel, like Fed Chair Powell, BOE Governor Bailey, and BOJ Governor Kuroda place much emphasis on lowering wages to bring inflation down. Yet wages are rising less than inflation, and the cost-of-living squeeze is serious. They take for granted that business are simply passing on rising input costs, including labor costs, but if that were true, corporate earnings would not be rising, which they have. Costs are being passed through. Later this week, the UK regulator will announce the new gas cap for three months starting in October  Some reports warn of as much as an 80% increase. It is behind the Bank of England's warning that CPI could hit 13% then. The UK's wholesale benchmark has soared 47.5% this month after an 83.7% surge last month. Gas prices in the UK have nearly tripled this year. The UK's 10-year breakeven rose by 38 bp last week to 4.29%, a new three-month high. Although the UK economy shrank slightly in Q2 (0.1%), the BOE warned earlier this month that a five-quarter recession will likely begin in the fourth quarter. Unlike the eurozone, the UK's composite PMI has held above the 50 boom/bust level. Still, it is expected to have slowed for the fourth month in the past five when the August preliminary figures are presented tomorrow. The euro and sterling extended their pre-weekend declines  The euro slipped below parity to $0.9990. The multiyear low set last month was near $0.9950. The break of parity came in the early European turnover. Only a recovery of the $1.0050-60 area helps stabilizes the tone. Speculators in the futures market extended their next short euro position in the week through August 16 to a new two-year extreme and this was before the euro's breakdown in the second half of last week. The eurozone's preliminary August composite PMI due tomorrow is expected to show the contraction in output deepened while the market is expecting the Fed's Powell to reinforce a hawkish message on US rates. After falling to almost $1.1790 before the weekend, sterling made a marginal new low today, closer to $1.1780. The two-year low set last month was near $1.1760. The $1.1850-60 area offers an initial cap. Strike activity that hobbled the trains and underground spread to the UK's largest container port, Felixstowe, which handles about half of the country's containers. An eight-day strike began yesterday. Industrial activity is poised to spread, and this is prompting Truss and Sunak who are locked in a leadership challenge, to toughen their rhetoric against labor. America This is a busy week for the US  First, there is supply. Today features $96 bln in bills. Tomorrow sees a $60 bln three-week cash management bill and $44 bln 2-year notes. On Wednesday, the government sell another $22 bln of an existing two-year floating rate note, and $45 bln five-year note. Thursdays sale includes four- and eight-week bills and $37 bln seven-year notes. There are no long maturities being sold until mid-September. The economic data highlights include the preliminary PMI, where the estimate for services is forecast (median in Bloomberg's survey) to recover from the drop below the 50 boom/bust level. In the middle of the week, the preliminary estimate of July durable goods is expected. Shipments, which feed into GDP models is expected to rise by 0.3%. The revision of Q2 GDP the following day tends not to be a `big market movers. Friday is the big day. July merchandise trade and personal income and consumption measures are featured. Like we saw with the CPI, the headline PCE deflator is likely to ease while the core measure proves a bit stickier. Shortly after they are released, Powell addresses the Jackson Hole gathering.  Canada has a light economic diary this week, but Mexico's a bit busier  The highlight for Mexico will be the biweekly CPI on Wednesday. Price pressures are likely to have increased and this will encourage views that Banxico will likely hike by another 75 bp when it meets late next month (September 29). The July trade balance is due at the end of the week. It has been deteriorating sharply since February and likely continued.    The US dollar rose more than 1% against the Canadian dollar over the past three sessions. It edged a little higher today but stopped shy of the CAD1.3035 retracement objective. Initial support is seen near CAD1.2975-80. With sharp opening losses expected for US equities, it may discourage buying of the Canadian dollar in the early North American activity. The greenback is rising against the Mexican peso for the fifth consecutive session. However, it has not taken out the pre-weekend high near MXN20.2670. Still, the next important upside technical target is closer to MXN20.3230, which corresponds to the middle of this month's range. Support is now seen near MXN20.12.    Disclaimer   Source: No Relief for the Euro or Sterling

The recent behavior of the euro and the British pound and their potential weakness against the rest of the world's major currencies is beginning to bring concerns about a sustained deterioration in the prospects for these currencies. As Bloomberg commentators note, the behavior of the pound and the euro are worrisome. We have recently seen large shifts in the euro and pound's short-term market interest rates against the U.S. dollar, with a simultaneous weakening of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD exchange rates. Last week was the worst week for the pound in nearly two years, and at the same time, the yield on the UK's 2-year bond rose by 50 basis points. Typically, the opposite happens in developed markets. Expectations of a central bank rate hike and thus an increase in short-term market yields generally strengthen the currency. The collapse in the correlation between the exchange rate and interest rates is usually associated with emerging markets, which may have lost the battle for the credibility of keeping inflation within the inflation target. The energy dependence of the UK and Europe as a whole means that their balance sheets could deteriorate in the near future, while energy commodity inflation shows no signs of abating. Rate hikes in such a situation may not stem the tide of depreciation of the aforementioned currencies, Bloomberg reports. Thus, it seems that the winter months for the EUR and GBP may be a kind of test of the credibility of the economies in the eyes of investors. Their abandonment of investments in the EUR and GBP despite rising interest rates could be potentially worrying. Moreover, it could change the entire scene of the foreign exchange market. In the dollar index, the euro has a weighting of more than 57 percent, while the pound has a weighting of more than 11 percent. Together, these two currencies alone have a weighting of almost 70 percent. Since the beginning of the year, the euro against the U.S. dollar has lost almost 12 percent, and the British pound almost 13 percent. In contrast, since August 2021, the euro has lost almost 15 percent to the dollar, and the British pound less than 14 percent. Of the major currencies, only the Japanese yen has fared worse and has weakened by almost 20 percent against the U.S. dollar over the year. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Pound and euro similar to currencies of emerging markets?

Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair had broken below the parity level and made a new swing low at the level of 0.9916 (at the time of writing the analysis). The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of 0.9955 and needs to be clearly violated for a solid bounce. Please notice the weak and negative momentum on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bearish outlook for EUR with a potential target seen at the level of 0.9900 or even lower. The US Dollar is still being bought all across the board, so the bearish pressure on EUR is still strong.   Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.0089 WR2 - 1.0057 WR1 - 1.0035 Weekly Pivot - 1.0025 WS1 - 1.0003 WS2 - 0.9992 WS3 - 0.09960 Trading Outlook: There is no sign of relief for the EUR as the down trend should continue lower towards the level or 0.9900 and below. The EUR is under the strong bearish pressure and as long as the USD is kept being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for August 23, 2022

Summary:  Nvidia, Salesforce, and Snowflake report earnings tomorrow providing more clarity on technology spending and the outlook for the overall technology sector. Nvidia is expected to report a big drop in its growth rate due to weakening demand in gaming and more importantly crypto mining. Salesforce is expected to show solid growth and here investors will focus on the Slack integration and what it means for growth ahead. Snowflake's growth rate is coming down and thus investors will demand improvements in the operating income. Nvidia: turbulence to continue Earlier this month Nvidia cut its outlook, which we covered in an equity update, driving by excess inventory of GPUs leading to price pressures in GPUs. Lower demand for GPUs, which we believe is mainly driven by less favourable dynamics for crypto mining, is forcing Nvidia to lower its sales outlook, cutting prices, and writing down its existing inventory. Nvidia has gone to great length explaining off the weakness as due to a slowdown in gaming, but the companies in gaming are not showing the decline in demand consistent with the slowdown Nvidia is experiencing. Because Nvidia does not know very well the end-use cases of their GPUs it is difficult for them to segment revenue, but in our view the economics of crypto mining tied to the Bitcoin price is the best explanation for the historical variance in revenue. Nvidia’s slowdown is tied to cryptocurrencies and thus higher interest rates is not only a key risk to Nvidia’s equity valuation, but it is also a risk to their demand as higher interest rates could lower cryptocurrency prices substantially from current levels. Nvidia is expected on Wednesday to report only 3% y/y revenue growth in FY23 Q2 (ending 31 July) down from 46% y/y in FY23 Q1 (ending 1 May) which is an abrupt slowdown in growth. It also highlights Nvidia’s biggest business risk. The chipmaker does not fully understand its demand function which can lead to a mismatch in supply and demand. The key question for investors is to what extent Nvidia expects growth to come back but more importantly whether they will change their outlook for operating margins. Nvidia financials | Source: Bloomberg Salesforce: can Slack sustain the growth? Salesforce is reporting FY23 Q2 (ending 31 July) results on Wednesday with analysts estimating revenue growth of 21% y/y which is in line with the long-term growth rate the company has enjoyed for 10 years. The Slack acquisition which has now been fully integrated is one of the key drivers for future growth and an acquisition that has expanded the company’s addressable market and market position in cloud business application software. Salesforce is competing against Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP, and has shown over the years that it gain market share plowing back a lot of its profits back into growth. With rising interest rates the pressure is on Salesforce to lift its operating margin and investors are likely demanding a surprise on operating margin rather than revenue in tomorrow’s earnings release. Salesforce financials | Source: Bloomberg Snowflake: consumption model vs economic uncertainty It is rare for Berkshire Hathaway to engage in technology companies let alone IPOs, but that is exactly what the investment firm did with Snowflake back in 2020. The company sits in the data analytics and cloud intersection providing a novel approach to data warehousing on the cloud at a low costs. The company has grown revenue from $97mn in 2018 to around $1.2bn in 2021 and revenue growth is expected at 72% y/y in FY23 Q2 (ending 31 July) but down from 104% y/y a year ago, but this should be expected as all high growth companies always see their growth rate coming down. The question is to what degree the growth rate is decaying over time. The company has recently disappointed analysts and there might be a downside risk to Snowflake’s results as the business model is centered around consumption which means that if technology spending is slowing down then it will hit Snowflake’s growth rate immediately. Secondly, the company’s high equity valuation relative to revenue means that investors will want to see a big improvement in operating income. Snowflake financials | Source: Bloomberg Source: Earnings preview: Nvidia, Salesforce, and Snowflake

During the recent earnings season investors' were especially focused on consumer staples companies. Their sales figures are potentially a good indicator of the consumer situation - they can show how the average shopper is seeking savings and how much they are buying. How did the consumer staples companies perform? Thanks to the strong return of demand after lockdowns and the uncertainty of supply chains, stores have accumulated a lot of inventory, which, with the current drop in demand, could pose a significant problem. Most stores have been forced to cut prices or write off products.  Walmart (WMT), Costco (COST) and Target (TGT) are among the largest U.S. retailers. Unlike Whole Foods and Trader Joe's, they tend to have lower prices, especially Walmart. Walmart initially spooked markets by lowering its profit forecasts and warned of a rapid rate of decline in demand. However, announced second-quarter results show that WMT and COST sales rose 8.4% and 16.2%, respectively. For Walmart, they totalled $152.9 billion and Costco reported $52.6 billion in revenue. In addition, Walmart's online sales jumped as much as 12%. Despite the improved sales, the companies are struggling with the problem of giant inventories. Walmart alone had $61 billion worth of inventory at the end of Q1. Prominent among the inventory is apparel. Most likely, the introduction of a series of discounts has boosted sales levels by stimulating demand. The news reported inventory value for Walmart remains high, at $59.9 billion.  Walmart and Costco's second-quarter net income rose to $5.15 billion ($1.77 EPS) and $1.35 billion ($3.04 EPS), respectively, marginally exceeding Wall Street analysts forecasts.  The black sheep was Target (TGT), whose profits fell a staggering 51.9%, despite revenue growth. Net profit margin slipped 53.8% to 4.01%, driven by the write-down of gigantic amounts of inventory. "If we hadn’t dealt with our excess inventory head on, we could have avoided some short-term pain on the profit line, but that would have hampered our longer-term potential," - said the Target chain's CFO. Executives noted that sales of lower-priced and low-margin products are on the rise, which may indicate a consumer search for savings. This was naturally reflected in a decline in net profit margins. In general, the performance of companies in the consumer staples sector proved to be good. Consumers, taking advantage of discounts and avoiding the more expensive stores (ex. Whole Foods and Trader Joe's), are contributing to the revenue growth of the cheaper ones, which include Walmart. Profits despite the losses from excess inventory in the case of Walmart and Costco appear to be strong. Target, adopted a more drastic strategy and preferred to write off much more merchandise and suffered gigantic losses.    Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Summary of consumer staples' earnings - What is the consumer's situation?

WTI crude oil futures rose above the $93 per barrel level today. The price increase may be supported by both macroeconomic data and statements from Saudi Arabia and OPEC. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may decide to cut oil production in the event of a global recession, representatives of several countries in the alliance told The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. OPEC and its partners, led by Russia, have been closely coordinating oil production volumes, especially since the initial impact of the coronavirus pandemic in the first half of 2020. The alliance's members will meet again on September 5 to set an oil production rate, according to the BBN news service. Meanwhile, crude inventories in the United States fell by 5.6 million barrels last week, according to data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API). The market consensus was for a much lower decline of 0.9 million barrels. The EIA's official government data will be released today. It is expected to reduce reserves by 933,000 barrels. Probably by a combination of the above two factors, oil prices rose almost 4 percent on Tuesday. Counting from the June peak, however, oil has lost about 25 percent, probably due to growing concerns that a global economic slowdown could dampen consumption. Does the Fed need to be aggressive? The U.S. dollar index rebounded on Wednesday to near 108.7 and rose again toward its highest level in 20 years. USD appreciation may have been influenced by comments from US Federal Reserve officials. Minneapolis Fed Chairman Neel Kashkari said that his biggest concern is that the extent of price pressures has been underestimated and that the central bank will have to be more aggressive for a longer period if inflation persists. This could mean tightening monetary policy even as the specter of a stronger brake on the economy looms. Kashkari added that the central bank may ease interest rate hikes when it becomes clear that inflation is heading toward 2 percent. Further clues about the Federal Reserve's action plans may emerge later this week, when Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed, addresses the annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: Oil rises in price, dollar rises in strength

As is often the case, markets find themselves at important turning points ahead of significant scheduled events. One of the latter is the Monetary Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, which starts later this week. This resort's signs could break the Dollar's rise or accelerate it by removing the final obstacle. In FX, the Dollar index made a 20-year high above 109.2 earlier in the week and then we saw some profit-taking activity, which caused the Dollar to slide around 1% against a basket of major peers. How the Dollar will close this week likely determines the dynamics for the next few months. Fed officials have spent the last couple of weeks actively managing expectations, indicating that the central bank has a more hawkish approach to policy, denying the problems in the economy that investors so fear. Traders in the markets are speculating whether this means the risk of a third consecutive rate hike of 75 points in September. In our view, the higher odds are that the Fed is leading exactly to that scenario and Powell's comments will proclaim the ultimate victory of that scenario. The hawks have a strong labour market and the need to anchor inflation expectations on their side. In this scenario, the dollar index is moving towards 120 (+10.5% to the current price), which is at its 2001-2002 highs. It is likely that on the approach to these levels, even the hawkish Fed and Treasury are concerned about a strong dollar. After all, along with lower inflation and faith in the main reserve currency, the world will get "side effects" in the form of extreme financial market volatility and a sharp slowdown of the global economy, which is also not in the interests of the USA. An alternative scenario is that Powell has probably learned his lesson from 2018 and is now paying more attention to signals from the market. Back then, four years ago, he was pushing the idea of further rate hikes, which scared the markets. The S&P500 then fell almost 20% from its peak, touching its 200-week average at one point. Near those levels, Powell got softer, and just over six months later, he cut rates altogether. If Powell and Co. have concluded this story, they will pay more attention to market sentiment. In that case, the markets will hear another batch of vague promises, leaving all doors open for the committee on the next monetary policy steps. Confirmation that the Fed is easing its pressure on the markets will form a double top in the DXY and reverse towards 103.7 - the 2020 peak. However, we cannot rule out that this will be the start of a longer and deeper dollar pullback.

Jerome Powell's in the spotlight, but equally important for the immediate Fed outlook will be the upcoming job report next week and the CPI print that follows. He may strive to endorse the market's recently rediscovered hawkishness, but also needs confirmation in the data. The ECB minutes pointed to more tightening ahead, with a hint at the balance sheet   Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole today is the main event Powell to speak against an already hawkish-leaning backdrop Many will have marked Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech today as the highlight of the week. Whether he will prove as market-moving as some expect is still to be seen. A likely scenario is that he will endorse the retightening of financial market conditions and thus also the trend towards higher market rates of late, given that the Fed still is a stretch away from getting inflation under control. Emphasis on the terminal rate may be an attempt to shift the focus away from a slowing hiking pace Recent Fed speakers have indeed provided a more hawkish backdrop, confirming the market leaning toward such an outcome. The Fed’s Esther George assessed that the Fed still needed to raise rates further to slow demand and bring inflation down, highlighting the importance of clear communication of the destination the Fed is headed – and that could even be above 4%. She pushed back against the notion of cuts following on the heels of the tightening cycle, where the market is currently seeing the peak in the Fed funds rate at close to 3.8% in the first quarter of next year, before pricing in first rate cuts again. Putting the emphasis on the terminal rate may be seen as an attempt to shift the focus away from the Fed slowing its hiking pace soon. Whether that happens already in September will be determined by the data – 300k, as is currently the consensus for next week’s payrolls increase, would leave a 75bp hike still on the table. We suspect that the next CPI release and whether it can confirm the notion of peak inflation will be more relevant. Here our economists see the risk of the core inflation reading still heading higher. The Fed has European markets to thank for a tightening of financial conditions Source: Refinitiv, ING ECB still has more tightening to do – could the balance sheet be next? The main takeaway from the European Central Bank minutes was the signalling of more hikes to come as the outlook for inflation worsened. The larger increase of 50bp in July should be understood as a frontloading of the normalisation process, but not as a change of the end-point of the cycle. This end-point will only crystallise once interest rates get closer to it, and – as also our economists have noted – it probably remains a moving target.       While data continues to point lower, even if not as bad as feared as was the case with yesterday’s German Ifo, the ECB appears reluctant to use the word recession. The ECB minutes suggested the central bank continues to hold on to a more optimistic view of the economy, at least at the last July meeting. Abandoning the rates guidance has provided much-needed flexibility, but balance sheet guidance remains The minutes also foreshadowed a discussion that could add upward pressure to longer-dated rates. Abandoning the rates forward guidance has provided much-needed flexibility in setting monetary policy. But there still remains guidance in place for the balance sheet, or more precisely the reinvestment of the QE portfolios. For now, the ECB intends to reinvest maturities of the Asset Purchase Programme portfolio “for an extended period of time past the date when it started raising the key interest rates”. Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme maturities will be reinvested at least until the end of 2024. No direct conclusions were drawn just yet in the minutes, but already earlier, the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel and Bundesbank’s Joachim Nagel hinted that the balance sheet would have to be considered at some point. Next week the ECB will have to contemplate another CPI print, and given the underlying rise in energy (gas) prices the trend continues to point higher – our economists do not exclude a peak in the double digits. Adjusting the reinvestment guidance may offer the ECB another lever on monetary policy, though we would caution that at a time where flexible reinvestments are used to contain sovereign spreads, talking about reducing reinvestments could prove counterproductive. Today's events and market view Powell's Jackson Hole speech is the day's highlight. Although rates have eased a little lower with the 10Y UST almost touching the 3% mark again, the market is leaning hawkish into this event. Other Fed speakers have already sounded hawkish tones, such as Esther George just yesterday, setting the backdrop for Powell. In these turbulent markets, investors will also have to contend with a resurgence in supply as September draws near. We're expecting €25bn of European government bond supply next week, to which the EU will add a €4bn tap. Other releases of note today are the personal income and spending data. Consumer spending should be OK with lower gasoline prices boosting household spending power, supporting consumption elsewhere. The PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will reflect the earlier flat CPI release. The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment release is a final reading but might be revised a tad higher given a further slide in gasoline prices.  Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Jerome Powell Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Oil Crude prices initially edged higher as we get further reports that OPEC+ is seriously considering lowering production and after the latest round of US economic data and Fed speak suggests the economy is still in a good position to handle more rate increases. Oil will start to form a key trading range until Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. We could get a major move in the dollar post-Powell and that could trigger a major one-way move for commodities. ​ The oil fundamentals still support crude prices to make a move above the $100 a barrel level, but first, we will have to wait-and-see if the dollar cooperates. Oil is seesawing ahead of Jackson Hole and that will probably continue until we hear from Fed Chair Powell. ​ Gold Gold got a limited boost as the dollar softened ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. ​ Another round of US economic data and Fed speak supported the idea that the Fed will remain aggressive tightening policy until inflation is under control. ​ Investors want to see if Fed Chair Powell locks the Fed in for another massive 75 basis point rate increase in September, but he will likely stick to the data-dependency script and leave it up to the September 13th inflation report. Gold will likely consolidate between the $1750 to $1780 zone leading up to Fed Chair Powell’s speech. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil seesaws, gold edges higher - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The day we’ve all been waiting for has finally arrived as Jerome Powell prepares for his keynote speech at Jackson Hole. I have no doubt Powell will have chosen his words very carefully today, all too aware of the consequences of even the smallest deviation in his intended message. It’s a little ridiculous that markets put so much weight on such things but that is the situation we are in and I expect the Fed Chair will be very clear in the message he wants to send. The difficulty for Powell stems from the fact that there’s the message investors desperately want to hear and the one they’ve repeatedly ignored since the July Fed meeting. The “dovish pivot” played nicely into the hands of the perma-bulls that have waited impatiently for the stock market to recover this year. Despite policymakers’ best efforts, attempts to correct this narrative have been brushed aside and the view today is that Powell may try to address this in a more forceful and convincing way. If he fails or gives the slightest impression that there is any substance to the dovish pivot narrative, we could see yields slip and stock markets end the week on a high. That could come intentionally, or otherwise, but investors will be clinging to his every word for even the slightest hint. Especially in light of the recent inflation reading. No pressure. Plenty of US economic data ahead of Powell’s speech While I’m sure that would be enough excitement for one day, there’s plenty of economic data due from the US later that will have a big role to play as well. Ahead of the speech, we’ll get income, spending and core PCE price index data, the latter of which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. The timing couldn’t be better. The UoM consumer sentiment survey is also released around the time his speech starts which will also be interesting, given that it’s languishing near its lowest level in decades even as actual spending remains strong. Sterling slips after eye-watering energy price cap rise and forecasts The pound fell this morning after it was confirmed by Ofgem that the energy price cap will rise by 80% in October, taking the average annual household energy bill to £3,549. It’s the moment many have feared for months and to make matters worse, the eye-watering hike was accompanied by a warning that prices are continuing to rise ahead of the next revision in January, with Cornwall Insight suggesting the cap could hit £6,616.37 next year. While looking that far ahead leaves enormous room for error if this year is anything to go by, that is devastating for so many and will require immense government support. It will also make the job of the Bank of England horrifically hard, with its previous projection of inflation this year peaking at 13.3% now looking unrealistically optimistic. Five quarters of contraction may also start to look like the optimistic scenario at this rate. Japanese inflation rises but BoJ to remain calm Contrast that with inflation in Japan, where the Tokyo CPI rose to 2.9% y/y in August and only 1.4% ex-fresh food and energy. It’s no surprise the central bank is pushing back against the need to tighten monetary policy at this point in time. Of course, it’s easy to say that when the pressure on the currency and bond yields have eased to the extent they have over the last six weeks. That could well change if Powell strikes a hawkish tone today and triggers another jump in yields and the dollar. Crypto hoping for dovish Powell Everything I write about at the minute seems to require the need to reference back to Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Powell and bitcoin is no different. Last Friday’s sell-off has left bitcoin vulnerable ahead of today’s speech and crypto bulls will be hoping for anything dovish that could help it get back on its feet. The opposite could see $20,000 come under pressure. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. All eyes on Jackson Hole - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Oil steadies around $100 Oil prices are a little higher, with Brent hovering around $100 a barrel and WTI above $93. It’s been well supported this week by comments from Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, who claimed there’s a disconnect between market pricing and fundamentals, suggesting OPEC+ could cut output in the future. Suddenly the prospect of a nuclear deal between the US and Iran, or a global growth slowdown, isn’t quite the bearish development for oil that many hoped. Although in reality, the group was never going to sit back and watch the price tumble as the world was flooded with extra oil or demand growth stalled. Gold still holds hope of $1,800 Gold is pulling back again ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech later on. A hawkish message that actually gets through to the markets could be a blow to the yellow metal as it may lift the dollar and US yields which have typically not been positive for it. That said, investors have been far more open to any remotely dovish message so this could be far more impactful and potentially bullish for gold, which will still have an eye on $1,800. A move lower could see support tested around $1,730. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil stable at $100, gold eyes Powell speech - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Powell's tough message on inflation upsets equities - bonds more resilient  Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global Markets: Fed Chair, Jerome Powell did what he needed to do last Friday at Jackson Hole, and that was to make it clear that the Fed’s over-riding priority was to get inflation down…not give assurances that they would be gentle with markets, not hint that rates might come quickly down once they’d peaked. All these things might be true, but he would have been shooting himself and the economy in the foot if he had undermined his comments on inflation fighting, with remarks that would have loosened, not tightened financial conditions. So at least as far as this author is concerned, he gets full marks for the message. Equities were less impressed. The S&P500 fell 3.37%, and the NASDAQ came off 3.94%. Their gains last week look ill-judged through the prism of history. Further sharp losses look likely at the start of trading today judging by equity futures. The rise in US Treasury yields was less dramatic, but the bond market has, as is often the case, had a more realistic assessment of the economy and the Fed than the equity markets for some time. 2Y US Treasury yields went up only 3.1bp, though they were up closer to 6bp at one point before easing back.  10Y yields rose only 1.5bp to take them to 3.041%. Despite a spike to 1.009, EURUSD went with higher UST yields and falling risk sentiment and declined to 0.9937 and looks to be heading lower in early Asian trading. The AUD has followed the EUR lower and is 0.6863 now, down from about 0.6970 this time on Friday. Cable has plunged to 1.1691, and the JPY has pushed up above 138. There were some small gains from the KRW and MYR on Friday, but on the whole, the rest of the Asia pack was softer against the USD and the CNY still seems as if it is headed higher over the short-term despite some defensive-looking fixings last week. G-7 Macro: A quick backcast to last Friday, when the US released personal income and spending figures for July, both of which came in weaker than market expectations. However, the price measures of PCE inflation and core PCE were also weaker. Both came in 0.1pp below expectations. That resulted in a 0.2pp decline in core PCE inflation taking it to 4.6%YoY. Headline PCE inflation fell to 6.3% from 6.8% in June. There’s nothing of note on today’s G-7 calendar. Australia: July retail sales are expected to post a slight increase on the 0.2%MoM reading for June. An online retail sales survey for July released at the end of last week showed sales declining, though at the same pace as June, so we could be looking at a similar figure for overall sales growth in July What to look out for: Regional manufacturing and US non-farm payrolls Australia retail sales (29 August) Malaysia CPI inflation (29August) Japan labour data (30 August) Australia building approvals (30 August) US Conference board consumer confidence (30 August) South Korea industrial production (31 August) Japan industrial production (31 August) China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI (31 August) Hong Kong retail sales (31 August) South Korea GDP and trade (1 September) Regional PMI manufacturing (1 September) China Caixin PMI manufacturing (1 September) Indonesia CPI inflation (1 September) US initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing (1 September) South Korea CPI inflation (2 September) US non-farm payrolls and factory orders (2 September) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, expected by investors, may have shaken the markets. During his address, markets could have seen more volatility, leading to a sell-off in risky assets and another wave of dollar appreciation. On Friday afternoon, when the Fed Chairman spoke in Jackson Hole, the U.S. dollar seemed to strengthen, and again to levels last seen 20 years ago. The U.S. Dollar Index is also attempting today to continue its rise from Friday, surpassing the 109-point level, which could result in the establishment of a new peak in the recent uptrend. Jerome Powell, in his speech, indicated that the Fed is committed to lowering inflation by raising interest rates and keeping them higher for a longer period of time. This, in turn, may have influenced the market's valuation of the Fed's actions on September 21, where investors seem to assume a rate hike of 75 basis points to 3.00-3.25 percent with a 70 percent probability. Before Jackson Hole, this probability was around 50 percent. In Powell's view, the right thing for the Fed to do is to continue the monetary tightening cycle until inflation is within the 2 percent target. The Fed seems to be looking more broadly at the data than a horizon of one or two months, and a possible peak in inflation may not change anything here for the moment. The Federal Reserve chairman also warned against loosening monetary policy prematurely. This may have dashed the market's hopes for a so-called Fed pivot, a 180-degree change in attitude. According to Jerome Powell, fighting inflation may be "painful" for the economy to some extent, but it is better than letting inflation get even more out of control. Such statements may have been followed by a retreat from risky assets in the financial markets. On Friday, major U.S. stock indexes took a dive and erased all potential gains from August. The Dow and S&P 500 lost 3.03 percent and 3.37 percent, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.94 percent, its biggest drop since mid-June. This morning, futures also seemed to show potential losses, dropping between 0.7 percent and 1.3 percent. The cryptocurrency market was also not indifferent to the Fed chairman's words. Bitcoin, which cost $25,000 as recently as mid-August, slipped below the $20,000 level at the end of the month and appears to be approaching its June low. Ethereum, which recently cost $2,000, is now priced below $1,500. Thus, one can see that the market has begun to depend on events in the real economy and on the actions of the Fed, much like the traditional financial markets, to which, after all, it was supposed to be an alternative. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Dollar hits 20 years high. Stock market tumbled

Fed's Jerome Powell's testimony The US Federal Reserve will remain hawkish and focus on inflation, Chairman Powell said on Friday, adding that US economic growth will slow down and unemployment will rise. It comes as no surprise as rate hikes have always triggered a cooling effect on the economy. Still, not all US officials agree with such an approach. In the European Union, they are trying to balance between maintaining economic growth and fighting inflation. In the United States, however, their primary concern is to bring inflation to the 2% target, with little attention paid to economic growth. The Federal Reserve reckons that a decrease in GDP is not a recession because the latter is always followed by a wave of bankruptcies, rising unemployment, contraction in the jobs market, and other sad events. Right now, there is just a fall in GDP, which could be interpreted as a correction after strong growth. Nevertheless, business activity is slowing down as well as industrial production, and things are only getting worse. Elizabeth Warren Senator Elizabeth Warren said on Sunday that she is concerned about the regulator's plans to further tighten monetary policy as recession risks are increasing. In her view, high prices and millions of unemployed are worse than high prices and a strong economy. She believes, the Federal Reserve's actions are likely to lead to high unemployment and negative economic growth rather than to low inflation. "I just want to translate what Jerome Powell just said. What he calls 'some pain' means putting people out of work, shutting down small businesses, because the cost of money goes up, because the interest rates go up," Warren said on Sunday. Elizabeth Warren may be partially right. The Bank of England, for example, has raised the benchmark rate six times in a row but inflation is still on the rise. Of course, the situation in the UK is somewhat different because the country has recently been through Brexit. Governor Andrew Bailey sees the United Kingdom sliding into a recession in the last six months of the year. Meanwhile, US inflation might be declining rather slowly, not in line with the central bank's expectations. Moreover, consumer prices have so far fallen just once. There is no guarantee that the slowdown will continue. It might be a drop of as much as 0.1-0.2% a month, taking the Federal Reserve several years to bring inflation to the 2% target. All this time, the American economy would be under tremendous pressure. The inflation report due on September 14 will clear things out. It will be released a week before the next rate hike and show whether Mr. Powell and the Committee are right in their pledge to forcefully and rapidly act against inflation. Relevance up to 06:00 2022-08-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320117

The 1H timeframe of the DXY index suggests the completion of a global corrective trend, which has taken the form of a triple zigzag consisting of five cycle waves w-x-y-x-z. Thus, the market is currently at the stage of reversal, that is, the formation of the initial part of a new bearish trend may soon begin. It is assumed that the bears are starting to build the first impulse sub-wave of the potential standard zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸. The end of the impulse â’¶ is possible just below the minimum of 104.63, which is marked by a minute fourth correction. An approximate scheme of possible future movement is shown on the chart. Alternative scenario... In an alternative scenario, the formation of a cycle triple zigzag is not yet fully completed. Most likely, at the level of 104.69, the bearish cycle wave x was completed, which took the form of a standard zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸ of the primary degree. Then the market turned around, and an upward impulse price movement began in the initial part of the wave z. The wave z can take the form of a zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸, and now a sub-wave â’¶ is being formed. The entire wave z may complete its pattern near 116.80. At that level, it will be at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of wave y.

Summary:  Today we look at the lackluster session yesterday as risk sentiment found relief after the brief wipeout in the wake of the Fed Chair Powell speech on Friday. Helping to ease pressure on sentiment were the USD halting its rise and US yields easing back lower. In commodities, we look at the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe as Russia is set to shut down a key pipeline for purported maintenance. The corn and wheat outlook, pressure on discretionary spending and related stocks due to soaring energy prices, upcoming earnings reports and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: High energy costs will crowd out discretionary spending

We will remember Jackson Hole not just for Powell's hawkish speech, but also for the ECB gearing up its own hawkishness – 75bp hikes are not just for the Fed. Even if just an attempt to invoke the market's help to do the heavy lifting of tightening financial conditions, near term it means more curve flattening. Accelerating inflation still justifies the means  Hawkish ECB communications shift bear flattens the curve... EUR money markets have clearly set their sights on a 75bp hike at the September meeting after the string of hawkish comments over the weekend. The ESTR OIS (euro short-term rate overnight indexed swap) forward for the September reserve period is now at 65bp, implying a 60% probability for a larger move. It was the European Central Bank’s Robert Holzman, Martins Kazaks and Klaas Knot who all hinted more-or-less explicitly at a 75bp hike being on the table while others have called for more forceful action. France’s François Villeroy appears to suggest more frontloading with a call for showing determination now to avoid “unnecessarily brutal” hikes at a later stage. The significance of that hawkish communications shift was underscored by the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel who warned that greater sacrifices may be needed to bring inflation under control. And indeed the ECB’s current official economic outlook certainly still looks overly optimistic against the backdrop of a deepening energy crunch. This all spells further yield curve flattening as the ECB looks more prepared to hike even into a downturn.    The barrage of hawkish ECB comments means more EUR curve flattening is on the cards Source: Refinitiv, ING ...but may signal more reliance on the market to do the heavy lifting While acknowledging further normalisation is appropriate, the ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane struck a more balanced tone. In light of high uncertainty, he argued for a steady pace of hikes to the terminal rate. Smaller hikes would be less likely to cause adverse side effects and make it easier to correct course. Under the current circumstances, we suspect that 50bp would fit his idea of “steady” and “small”. He also notes that policy works through its influence on the entire yield curve. After the July rate hike, higher market rates have meant that the monetary tightening that has already occurred is far greater than just the first policy rate increase. In particular, he notes that mid and longer-end segments of the yield curve are most important for determining financing conditions in the economy and that these are more sensitive to expectations of the terminal rate than the precise path of policy rates towards it. That insight leads us back to one possible aim of the more hawkish communications twist: let the market do the heavy lifting of tightening financing conditions. As long as inflation risks are skewed to the upside, hawkish talk is likely to persist. And as long as the market plays ball, it may not necessarily translate into an even larger 75bp hike. However, one can also argue that when relying on hawkish talk it is even easier to eventually correct course than it is with a strategy of “smaller hikes". At this point, we still think that the ECB will significantly underdeliver compared to what markets are pricing. The crucial question is just when this notion will dawn on markets. The EUR swap curve prices front-loaded hikes in 2022 Source: Refinitiv, ING ECB quantitative tightening on the back burner? It appears that a discussion on quantitative tightening might not be as imminent, which should also come as a relief for periphery bonds. Accelerated ECB rate hikes and political uncertainty in Italy have already brought the benchmark 10Y spread of Italian bonds over German Bunds back towards 230bp. Bringing quantitative tightening to the table could tip the fragile balance towards more widening, even after the introduction of the Transmission Protection Mechanism. But it is quite notable that amid the latest hawkish push on rates, Italy's spreads have actually managed to eke out a small tightening versus Bunds. The Council's views on quantitative tightening seem not quite as aligned as their view on rates. After being brought up last week by the Bundesbank's Nagel and also by subtle hints in the ECB meeting minutes, the ECB’s Olli Rehn now said it was too early to publicly discuss quantitative tightening. While Kazaks said it could be discussed, he added it was too early to implement. Today's events and market view The reason for the ECB's hawkish turn will become more obvious today. As markets are looking for a further acceleration in inflation, all eyes are on the German and Spanish readings today ahead of tomorrow's eurozone flash CPI release which the consensus sees heading to 9%. The core rate is seen accelerating to 4.1%. Also to watch are the business climate indicators today, economic sentiment and consumer confidence, all of which are expected to come in softer. The 1y1y ESTR forward is back to 2.13%, though that is still short of the peak seen in June when it topped 2.5%. It might still push higher from here, but the long end should increasingly lag. In primary markets, Italy will reopen the 5Y, 8Y and 10Y sectors as well as a floating rate bond for a total of up to €8bn. Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Federal Reserve ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Overview: Corrective pressures were evident yesterday and they extended today in Asia and Europe but seem to be running their course now. Market participants should view these developments as countertrend and be wary of waning risk appetites in North America today. Most Asia Pacific equities rallied earlier today, save China and Hong Kong. Europe’s Stoxx 600 has retraced most of yesterday’s losses and US futures are trading higher. Benchmark bond yields are softer with the US 10-year note yield off about 3.5 bp to below 3.07%. European yields are mostly 3-5 bp lower, but UK Gilts are pressured by reports that foreign investors were heavy sellers last month. The US dollar surrendered earlier gains yesterday and is mostly lower today. The Australian dollar is leading the charge, despite a much sharper than expected fall in building approvals. Among emerging market currencies, only the Philippine peso and Taiwanese dollar are failing to push higher. Gold is soft, despite the weaker greenback and lower yields. It is nursing losses for the third session. After a sharp 4.25% gain yesterday, October WTI is pulling back by around 1.75% today toward $95. US natgas is off 2%, while Europe’s benchmark has extended yesterday’s 19.5% drop with a further 6.6% slide today. China’s property sector woes are weighing on the steel sector and iron ore prices have fallen 8% over the past two sessions and is below $100 for the first time this month. December copper is off 1% after falling 2.3% yesterday. December wheat is paring yesterday’s 4.6% gain.  Asia Pacific Japan reported that its unemployment rate was unchanged in July at 2.6%. The job-to-applicant ratio unexpectedly ticked up to 1.29 from 1.27. The upticks in the yen, however, are more related to the pullback in US yields than the developments in the Japanese economy. Tomorrow, Japan reports July industrial output, and after the 9.2% surge in June, related to the lagged response to re-opening in Shanghai likely eased a bit. Retail sales offer the opposite trajectory. They fell a whopping 1.3% in June and likely stabilized in July, allowing for a small gain. In June apparel and general merchandise purchases were particularly weak. Rising interest rates are squeezing Australia's property market more intensely than expected. Building approvals plunged 17.2% in July, six-times more than the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey. The drop was driven by the private sector apartments rather than houses. The number of private sector approvals was the lowest since January 2012. The disappointment did prevent the Australian dollar from recovering today, amid the general pullback in the US dollar, but the odds of a 50 bp hike next week were shaved to around 65% from 70% yesterday. Rains in Sichuan have eased the energy emergency allowing large-scale industry to result production this week. The provincial government downgraded the emergency to level-one from level-two yesterday and several companies (including Toyota, Honda, and Foxconn) indicated a resumption of production. Cooler weather was also helping reduce household demand for electricity. Yet, Sichuan has gone from drought to flood. Reports suggest that nearly 325 mines, including 60 coal mines, with 5000 workers have been asked to take shutdown for precautionary reasons. Meanwhile, the zero-Covid policy has led to lockdowns in parts of Shenzhen. Softer US rates and a downside correction in the US dollar after reaching JPY139 yesterday has seen the greenback ease toward JPY138.15. The JPY137.95 area corresponds to a (38.2%) retracement of the dollar rally since before Powell spoke at Jackson Hole at the end of last week. We suspect the corrective pressure have been exhausted or nearly so and expect North American traders to buy the dollar the on the dip. Yesterday's low was slightly above JPY137.35. The Australian dollar took out a neckline of what may be a potential head and shoulder top yesterday but recovered to close above it (~$0.6850). Follow-through buying today has lifted it to around $0.6955. Here too, we think the short squeeze has nearly run its course in the European morning. The $0.6965-70 area may offer the nearby cap. For the fifth consecutive session, the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate lower than the market (median in Bloomberg's survey) expected, and the gap today (~249 pips) was the most since the Bloomberg survey began four years ago (CNY6.8802 vs. CNY6.9051). The PBOC seemed willing to accept an orderly decline of the yuan, especially given the divergence of monetary policy, but wants to avoid a vicious cycle. This was underscored by its announcement of a consultation period as it considers a news policy to require prior approval for companies wishing to sell long-term debt in offshore markets. At the same time, we read the fixing as a type of affirmation through negation, i.e., the PBOC's action acknowledges the strength of the demand for dollars. The dollar rose to a two-year high yesterday, after rising nearly 2% over the previous two weeks. Today, it slipped less than 0.1%. Europe Attention turns to eurozone's August inflation, ahead of tomorrow's aggregate report. Spain began with a 0.1% month-over-month increase that saw the harmonized year-over-year pace ease for the first time in four months. It slipped to 10.3% from 10.7%. However, the core rate rose to 6.4% from 6.1%. German states have reported, and they all showed of the year-over-year rate, even as the month-over-month change moderated to 0.2%-0.4%. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey sees a 0.4% increase in the harmonized rate for an 8.8% year-over-year increase (from 8.5% in July). The risk is on the upside. With the surge in energy prices, the Bundesbank chief Nagel warned that Germany inflation could rise to over 10%. The EU is holding an emergency energy ministers meetings on September 9 to consider efforts to coordinate a response. The focus appears capping gas prices and/or decoupling electricity prices from gas prices. EU countries have already "spent" and estimated 280 bln euros on tax cuts or subsidies for energy. Quietly, the German two-year yield has doubled in the past two weeks from 0.53% on August 15 to 1.10% yesterday. The German yield has risen faster than comparable US yield. As a consequence, the US 2-year premium has fallen below 240 bp for the first time since early July. It recorded a three-year peak on August 5 a little more than 277 bp. One of the spurs to the more than 22 bp increase in the German two-yield over the past two sessions has been the push from some of the hawks for a 75 bp move at next week's ECB meeting. While it is noteworthy that it was not done via leaks to the press this time, as sometimes is has appeared in the past, and the market seems to think it is likely. The swaps market shows it be a little more than a 60% chance of materializing, up from about a 20% chance a week ago. Our own subjective assessment is that a steady series of 50 bp hikes is more likely to achieve a consensus than a jump to 75 bp and a return to 50 bp or even 25 bp. Given the fragile economic condition, and with little to gain from a larger move than cannot be achieved through the ECB's forward guidance, a stable, predictable course is likely preferable. That said, the provocative tactics of the hawks seems to be an attempt to deliver a fait accompli to the ECB. If they deliver a 50 bp hike, they will appear as dovish versus expectations and could pressure the euro lower in disappointment. The short-covering bounce in the euro began yesterday when the $0.9900 area held. There are a little more than 3 bln euros in options struck there that roll-off today. The gains maybe spurring demand related to 1.55 bln in options struck at $1.00 that expire tomorrow. The euro is at its best level since Powell spoke. Just prior to the Fed Chair's speech last week, the euro spiked to $1.0090. This area should provide a cap now. Sterling's recovery off yesterday's two-year low (~$1.1650) seems less inspired and has not been able to push above yesterday's high (~$1.1785). And even if it does, the upticks will likely be limited to the $1.18 area, which is the (61.8%) retracement of the decline since the high set before Powell spoke (($1.1900). The intraday momentum indicators are stretched by the gains of a little more than half a cent in the European morning. Separately, the decision by the Hungarian central bank is awaited. It is expected to hike the base rate by 100 bp today after hiking by 300 bp last month. This move will bring the base rate to 11.75%. It was at 2.4% at the end of last year.    America The two-year breakeven has now fallen slightly more than 25 bp over the past three sessions to about 2.70%. Over the three sessions, the nominal two-year yield has risen by a grand total of three basis points to 3.42%. The odds of a 75 bp hike next has edged to about 75% from about 66% before Powell spoke at Jackson Hole and gave no signal besides saying it could be 50 bp or 75 bp move. The difference, the 25 bp is coming in addition to the other anticipated moves. What this means is the market now sees the year-end Fed funds target closer to 3.75% rather than 3.50%. The implied yield of the March 2023 Fed funds futures is pricing in about an 80% chance of a hike in Q1, unchanged for the third consecutive session. The market also continues to price in 7-9 bp of easing by the end of next year as it has for the past five sessions. Ahead of the US jobs data, which are the highlight of the week, with the ADP estimate tomorrow, house prices, the Conference Board's consumer confidence, and the JOLTS report on job openings are featured today. While the Fed's Kashkari's comments about the stock market and the Fed's objective of tightening of financial conditions are really revealing anything new, the undiplomatic expression seemed to set the chins wagging. Equity prices are part of the financial conditions but so are interest rates, ease of credit, and asset prices more generally. House price inflation appears to be slowing and this alongside weaker financial asset prices are part of the process. Canada reports its Q2 current account surplus, which is reflecting the positive terms-of-trade shock. Consider that in 2019, before Covid, Canada recorded a C$47 bln current account deficit. With a Q2 surplus of C$6.8 bln expected, it would mean Canada has recorded a nearly C$11 bln current account surplus in H1 22. Tomorrow, Canada reports Q2 GDP and it is expected to have accelerated to around 4.4% form 3.1% in Q1. Still, even with today's modest gain, the Canadian dollar is off about 2.7% this year against the US dollar. The broader risk environment is a more important driver of the exchange rate. Mexico reports its July unemployment rate. It is expected to have ticked up to 3.53% from 3.35%. The market does not appear sensitive to this time series. Tomorrow, the central bank's inflation report is due, but it’s unlikely to impact expectations for a 75 bp hike late September. The US dollar set a new high for August near CAD1.3075 before pulling back toward CAD1.2990. Follow-through selling today has been limited to the CAD1.2970 area, just above CAD1.2965 retracement objective. The momentum indicators suggest that losses below that will be limited and instead the greenback could recover toward CAD1.3025. The Mexican peso's resilience is evident. It continues to trade well within this month's range. The dollar has built a base around MXN19.81 and has not closed above the 20-day moving average (~MXN20.0735) since August 2. However, further dollar losses today look limited.     Disclaimer   Source: Turn Around Tuesday Began Yesterday, Likely Ends before Wednesday

Summary:  The US dollar hasn’t been able to sustain a new rally after Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday, with further risk of weakness if incoming data doesn’t bring new upside pressure on US yields. A new thaw in risk sentiment has the USD also teetering on the verge of a reversal lower versus the G10 commodity dollars as well, with the technical outlook finely balanced in pairs like AUDUSD and USDCAD. Incoming data could bring a bump ride through the August CPI number on September 13. FX Trading focus: USD bulls on the defensive ahead of key data. EURUSD squeeze risk picks up above 1.0100 EURUSD has squeezed back higher this morning, and looks ready for a poke above 1.0100 if the minor US data points ahead of Friday’s US jobs report (today’s Consumer Confidence survey and JOLTS survey and Thursday’s August ISM Manufacturing survey) don’t offer any drama. But conviction is lacking as long as EURUSD remains within the seeming tractor-beam pull of parity and it is tough to develop conviction until we have had a look at the Friday’s US jobs report (big Average Hourly Earnings surprises may carry more weight than payrolls due to the inflation angle of earnings), the ISM Services survey on Tuesday (completely at odds with the alternative S&P Global non-manufacturing survey in July when the latter showed a slightly contraction while the July ISM Services was still a robust 56+. The flash August S&P Global reading worsened further to 44.0.), and most of all the August CPI release on September 13, given that the Fed has pre-declared that it is willing to tolerate economic weakness if inflation is not yet under control. ECB Chief Economist Lane was out yesterday arguing for a “steady” pace of “smaller” rate hikes rather than large moves – presumably a series of 50 basis point moves – to avoid “adverse effects” and as Lane believes that this would make it easier for ECB to course correct. This seemed to help cut short the EUR rally yesterday, but rate expectations for the ECB meeting next week are still around 50/50 for a 75-basis-point move, somewhat lower than they were at the peak yesterday after the hawkish speech from the ECB’s Schnabel at the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference at the weekend.  The German flash August CPI will be out around pixel time for this article. Chart: EURUSDThe US dollar backing off today and EURUSD pulls back above parity again after bobbing back and forth around that level yesterday and into this morning. The move likely only picks up likely order-driven momentum tactically on a move above 1.0100 and we face a further cavalcade of incoming data tests for the USD through the August US CPI figure as noted above, and for the EUR side of the equation, the test is next Thursday’s ECB meeting as well as whether Russia turns the gas back on next week after the purported maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in coming days. A squeeze scenario could see 1.0200, with anything above that beginning to suggest at least an intermediate challenge of the down-trend. Short term long option strangles are one way to trade for zany choppiness in coming sessions (A long strangle approach is an idea for the indecisive trader, or the one that believes that we might see a squeeze on a move above 1.0100 but one that won’t hold – for example long 1.0125 calls and long 0.9975 puts w/ expiry next Wed. or Thursday, or a trader can simply choose one or the other leg if biased.) Source: Saxo Group Elsewhere, the tactical situation could not be more in limbo in pairs like AUDUSD and USDCAD, which teased a break in favour of a stronger US dollar, only to dive back into the range, if with insufficient force to suggest a tradable reversal. The trading conditions might remain treacherous there at least until the other side of the US jobs report. A CAD supportive crude rally, meanwhile, is fading fast today. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The US dollar is still top dog, but the Euro momentum has impressed in the wake of ECB guidance in recent days. Leading the race to the bottom is GBP. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.EURCHF is on the verge of flipping to positive for the first time in a very long time (last negative signal an impressive 53 days so far), EURGBP went positive so two sessions ago, and EURJPY did so yesterday. Still some work to get EURUSD there…. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1200 – Hungary Rate Decision 1200 – US Fed’s Barkin (Non-voter) to speak 1200 – Germany Aug. Flash CPI 1300 – US Jun. S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index 1400 – US Aug. Consumer Confidence 1400 – US Jul. JOLTS Job Openings 1500 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 1600 – ECB Speakers Holzmann and others 0130 – China Aug. Manufacturing/Non-manufacturing PMI   Source: FX Update: USD suddenly on defensive ahead of data.

Relevance up to 07:00 2022-08-31 UTC+2 Crypto Industry News: Mars Incorporated has signed an agreement with Universal Music Group. The latter company handles image licenses from NFT collectors who make up the virtual metaverse team - KINGSHIP. It's about graphics from BAYC and MAYC. As part of the new collaboration, there was a fairly original promotion of the NFT. Mars has released a limited edition of its sweets under the sign of two "MM". A gold gift box from M & M's hit the market. The number of such boxes was limited to only 100 pieces. According to the company, the series has already been sold out. The cost of one package was $ 99.99. However, this is not the end. Fans of sweets will also be able to buy brown boxes, which are a continuation of the "golden" ones. These will be numbered 101 to 4,000 and are still available. We encourage you, if you think it's worth spending $ 59.99 on candy. On top of all this, there are jars from M & M's printed with the image of the characters from the BAYC and MAYC series by KINGSHIP. Expense? Only $ 39.99. The jars were numbered from 1 to 6,000. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance seen at $1,530 - $1,559 and the bounce continues higher towards the level of $16,54. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,358 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,281. The momentum is positive, however, there is a bullish divergence seen on the H4 time frame chart between the price action (last low) and momentum. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,532 WR2 - $1,486 WR1 - $1,468 Weekly Pivot - $1,444 WS1 - $1,424 WS2 - $1,400 WS3 - $1,355 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 30, 2022

Relevance up to 07:00 2022-08-31 UTC+2 Crypto Industry News: Founder and Investment Director of Cyber Capital Cryptocurrency Fund Justin Bons called Bitcoin (BTC) "technically one of the worst cryptocurrencies" and "purely speculative asset without utility" compared to other cryptocurrencies due to the lack of technological advancement. Bons added his opinion in an 11-part Twitter thread on Sunday, stating that Bitcoin's value proposition has long been deteriorating due to a broken long-term security model, relatively weak economic features, and a lack of capability, programmability, and composing. Bons has been an expressive figure in the crypto community for several years now, establishing one of the oldest European cryptocurrency funds, Cyber Capital in 2016, and as of 2014 considered a full-time cryptocurrency researcher. In addition, Bons runs nodes on the Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash networks. Justin Bons said he vigorously defended BTC in 2014, said "the reality is that BTC has changed dramatically since then," with the decision not to increase the block size limit, "a serious departure from the original vision and purpose. Bitcoin ". Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen making a pull-back towards the level of $20,716 after the bears had pushed the market out of the channel. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $18,940 (technical support from July 13th) and $18,640 (technical support from July 1st). The momentum remains weak and negative, however, there is a bullish divergence seen on the H4 time frame chart between the price action (last low) and momentum. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $20,566 WR2 - $20,144 WR1 - $19,963 Weekly Pivot - $19,722 WS1 - $19,540 WS2 - $19,300 WS3 - $18,878 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 30, 2022

USD/CHF is up for a third straight day. In the European session, the pair is trading at 0.9717, up 0.36%. The US dollar continues to show strength against most of the majors. The Swiss franc has fallen sharply, with USD/CHF climbing 360 points since August 16th. KOF Economic Barometer falls again The KOF Economic Barometer continued its downward trend, declining for a fourth straight month in August. The index dropped to 86.5, down from 90.1 in July and shy of the estimate of 89.0. Much of the August decline was related to consumer consumption, but the manufacturing sector is also showing weakness. Similar to the situation in other major economies, manufacturing activity has been hurt by supply chain disruptions and a lack of employees. Switzerland will release the August inflation report on Thursday. The estimate for August CPI is 0.2% MoM, after a 0.0% reading in July. The Swiss central bank (SNB), which is not shy about intervening in currency markets, will be watching carefully. Higher inflation means the Swissie has less purchasing power, which suits the SNB as it has a paramount interest in the Swiss currency remaining weak so that Swiss exports are competitive. In the US, the markets continue to digest Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish speech on Friday. The “read my lips” speech in which Powell firmly stated that there would be no pivot in policy appeared to have hit its mark, as equity markets took a tumble on Friday and again on Monday, although we are seeing a rebound today. The Federal Reserve holds its next policy meeting on September 21st and we can expect plenty of discussions as to whether the Fed will hike by 50 or 75 basis points. CME’s FedWatch has pegged the likelihood of a 75bp move at 66.5%, with a 33.5% likelihood of a 50bp move. These numbers are sure to change in the coming weeks, as the markets hunt for clues as to the Fed’s plans. . USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.9720. Next, there is resistance at 0.9760 There is support at 0.9642 and 0.9524 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.   Source: Swiss franc falls to 5-week low

The end of the month is often a time for summaries. In addition, the end of August is also the end of the vacations - how hot, not only in the weather but also in the economy and financial markets. So let's turn to a brief summary of events and possible prospects for the fall and winter. From the point of view of the financial markets, the main topic seems to be where interest rates in the United States will go in time for the end of the year and where they will be next year. At the moment, the market seems to be pricing the possibility of a rate hike on September 21 by 75 bps at almost 70 percent. Thus, the range for the Fed rate could rise to 3.00-3.25 percent. This, according to investors, may not be the end of the hike cycle. This one may end at 3.75-4.00 percent, a range that could be reached in early 2023. The rise in expectations for rate hikes in the US may have affected the US dollar and gold prices recently. The USD index appears to have completed its third consecutive month of gains in August. Since the beginning of the month alone, the EUR to USD seems to have lost more than 2 percent, and the British pound more than 4 percent, while looking at the change in rates since August 2022, the EUR and GBP could lose around 15 percent, being the weakest currencies among the world's major currencies, except for the Japanese yen, which seems to have recorded a loss of 20 percent in a year. The currencies that could lose the least to the USD on a monthly and yearly basis seem to be AUD and CAD. It looks like the strong dollar and relatively high expectations of interest rate hikes by the Fed may be leaving their mark on the gold market. The price of bullion appears to have fallen for the fifth month in a row. In August alone, gold may have declined by 2.75 percent, while in relation to the summer of last year, the price drop may be more than 4.5 percent. This still seems to be a small slide in relation to silver prices, which may be 23 percent lower on an annual basis. How the USD and the market's pricing in it may behave in the fall remains an open question. On the one hand, the hiking cycle by the Fed may already be fairly well priced by the market. In addition, rate hikes in the Eurozone, the UK or Australia may be more aggressive than in the US, which from an interest rate perspective could support the EUR, GBP and AUD. However, especially for the former two currencies, the other side remains - the energy crisis. In this situation, interest rates alone may not help if gas or electricity has to be rationed. Nevertheless, for the moment, when the market may be discounting the worst-case scenario for Europe, a new catalyst would be needed in the US, to support the USD this fall. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Dollar with the third month of gains. Gold with the fifth month of declines

Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+2 Technical analysis: BTC/USD has been trading sideways at the price of $20.300 and i see potential for the the downside rotation towards lower reference point. Trading recommendation: Due to the test and reject of the resistance at the price of $20.500, I see further downside movement. Watch for potential selling opportunities on the intraday rallies with the downside objective at the price of $19.700. Key resistance is set at the price of $20.500 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: BTC update for August 31,.2022 - Potential for the downside rotation of the resistance

Relevance up to 15:00 UTC+2 The dollar remains positive, while its DXY index remains near the resistance level of 109.00. Earlier this week, DXY broke last month's high at 109.14 and touched a new local high since October 2002 at 109.44. The tough rhetoric of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the prospects for monetary policy of the American central bank gave the dollar a new bullish momentum. During his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium last Friday, he reaffirmed that the Fed's priority goal is to fight high inflation, and "the Fed should continue like this until the job is done." At the same time, "restoring price stability will take some time and will require the decisive use of central bank instruments." In other words, the tight cycle of Fed monetary policy tightening will continue for now, perhaps even at the same pace. Thus, the trend of further strengthening of the dollar remains. Meanwhile, the price of gold continues to decline amid a strengthening dollar. Today, XAU/USD hit a new 6-week low at 1.1710, falling towards key support levels at 1700.00, 1690.00, 1682.00. As you know, gold quotes are extremely sensitive to changes in the monetary policy of the world's leading central banks and, especially, the Fed. However, the other major world central banks (BoE, RBA, RBNZ) are also on the path of tightening their monetary policies, and the ECB will soon join them. Despite the high risks of a recession in the economy, the fight against inflation remains a key issue for them. Gold does not bring investment income but is in active demand during geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and a protective asset in the face of rising inflation. Now is just such a moment. However, it seems that it is losing its role as a protective asset to the dollar, and in the event of a breakdown of the zone of long-term support levels of 1700.00, 1690.00, 1682.00, the long-term bullish trend of gold and the XAU/USD pair may be in jeopardy. It is hard to believe so far, but the fundamental and technical picture is still in favor of just such a scenario. On Friday, the publication of key macroeconomic statistics for the United States is expected. At 12:30 (GMT), data on the US labor market for August will be published. The positive momentum of recovery is expected to continue, which allows Fed officials to continue to fight inflation at an accelerated pace, which is bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold prices. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD: Bullish and bearish factors

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair Pound tested 1.1669 when the MACD line was just starting to move below from zero, which was a good signal to sell. Resultantly, the quote fell by 40 pips, updating the yearly low. As for long positions around 1.1628, they did not bring much result because the pair traded downwards in the afternoon. Also, no other signals appeared for the rest of the day. Pound continues to update yearly lows, so there are not many people who want to buy it. Even weak employment data in the US non-farm sector did not lead to its sharp increase yesterday afternoon. A report on business activity in the UK manufacturing sector is coming today, but it is unlikely to trigger a sharp jerk in pound. The only thing that could stop the bear market temporarily is a strong oversold for all indicators. In the afternoon, the focus will shift to the data on US jobless claims, ISM manufacturing index and speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.1622 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1683 (thicker green line on the chart). Although there is little chance for a rally today, an upward correction could still happen. Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1572, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1622 and 1.1683. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.1572 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1525. Pressure could return at any moment, especially after weak statistics in the UK. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.1622, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1572 and 1.1525. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-02 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320534

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair Euro tested 0.9998 at the time when the MACD was far below zero, which limited the downside potential of the pair. Sometime later, it tested the level again, but this time the MACD line was above zero, so the upside potential was limited. This happened after the test of 1.0043. Although the sharp rise in the eurozone consumer price index came as no surprise, it hurt euro's upward outlook in the morning. Then, in the afternoon, dollar was affected by weak employment data from ADP, which suggested that the rate hikes implemented by the Fed hurt the labor market. Today, a number of reports are scheduled to be released, namely the volume of retail trade in Germany, index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and change in the unemployment rate of the eurozone. Good figures will allow buyers to try updating the weekly highs. But in the afternoon, the focus will shift to the data on US jobless claims, ISM manufacturing index and speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic. For long positions: Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0026 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0081. A rally will occur if statistics in the Euro area exceed expectations. Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0005, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0026 and 1.0081. For short positions: Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0005 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9959. Pressure will return if the Euro area releases weak economic statistics. The failure of buyers to update yesterday's highs will also end the upward correction. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0026, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0005 and 0.9959. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.       Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-02 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320532

The US currency is in tension before the release of the US labor market report, despite the advantage over the European one. At the same time, EUR does not leave attempts to rise and catch up. Currently, the downward trend prevails on the markets, plunging the American and European currencies into pessimism. According to economists at Commerzbank, a long-term strengthening of the US labor market provides significant support to the greenback. Experts put an equal sign between a strong labor market and a growing dollar. According to preliminary estimates, the positive trend in the USD will continue as long as the Federal Reserve adheres to a tight monetary policy. This situation is favorable for the US currency, but undermines the position of the European one. The EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.0012 on the morning of Thursday, September 1, trying to get out of the current range. At the same time, analysts pay attention to the high probability of the pair moving towards parity. The greenback plunged a bit on Wednesday evening, August 31, after the release of macro statistics on the US labor market, but later won back short-term losses. U.S. private-sector jobs increased by 132,000 last month, according to Automatic Data Processing (ADP), an analyst firm. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 248,000 on Friday, according to preliminary forecasts. Data on unemployment in the country will be released on September 2. Experts expect this indicator to remain at the level of July (3.5%) and to increase the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the country. Many currency strategists rely on strong US employment data and falling unemployment. They consider these indicators the most important for the Fed and its future monetary policy. However, some experts argue that the key indicator for the central bank is the level of salaries. Recall that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other members of the FOMC are counting on the "cooling" of the national labor market. Representatives of the Fed are trying to avoid a situation in which wage growth provokes another round of inflation. In such a situation, the increase in the number of vacancies recorded in August is a negative signal for the central bank. Against this background, the European currency seeks to maintain balance and get out of the price hole. However, its efforts are rewarded with rare bursts of recovery, and then a decline. Adding fuel to the fire is uncertainty about the European Central Bank's next steps on the rate. According to Nordea economists, next week the central bank will raise the rate by 75 basis points. The bank believes that even negative forecasts for economic growth in the region will not interfere with this. At present, the inflation rate in the eurozone remains stably high. According to current reports, inflation in EU countries reached an impressive 9.1% in August. Previously, this figure was 8.9%. The current situation undermines the euro's position, which is hardly kept afloat. According to analysts, the weakening of the euro against the dollar is due to the active tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. At the same time, the current parity between currencies may disappear when a compromise is reached in the EU on tightening the monetary policy or when inflation in the United States returns to the target of 2%. However, both situations are unlikely, experts say. According to experts, the 1:1 ratio between the dollar and the euro will remain until the EU countries begin to tighten monetary policy following the example of the United States. However, there are many pitfalls here, as the ECB needs to find a compromise between all the countries of the euro bloc. Many experts believe that by the end of 2022 the balance of power in the EUR/USD pair will change, due to which the topic of parity will be removed. Experts allow changes in the ECB's actions regarding monetary policy. The same is possible with regard to the Fed, which is worried about labor market problems and galloping inflation. According to analysts, the pair will tend to the usual ratio of 1.0500-1.1000. "In the event of a sharp turnaround, the EU economy will receive a solid bonus for the growth of exports and the economy at the expense of the US and China," the experts emphasize. Market participants are concerned about the questions: will the Fed take a decisive approach to monetary policy? Will the ECB follow suit? Many traders and investors are skeptical about the immediate prospects for the dollar and the euro. At the same time, analysts expect a reduction in key rates in the second half of 2023. The implementation of such a scenario will weaken the greenback and limit the potential for its strengthening. In the current situation, some experts believe that the markets are wishful thinking, expecting less rigidity from the Fed in the process of forming monetary policy. In this matter, much depends on the level of unemployment in the country. Excessive strengthening of the labor market in the US is pushing the central bank to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Fed officials are stepping up the pace of this tightening, emphasizing that they are ready to temporarily sacrifice the economy for the sake of curbing inflation. However, a few months ago they said they would try to avoid a recession. However, despite the economic upheavals, the US currency remains strong and remains competitive in the global market.       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320524

Decent manufacturing activity, improved trade and inventory contributions and the cashflow boost from falling gasoline prices mean the US is set for a strong third-quarter GDP reading of around 3%, but another decline in residential construction reinforces the worries about what might happen later in the year The ISM manufacturing index held up better than expected in August, which should give a boost to strong third quarter GDP ISM holds up as rising orders and falling prices offer hope for the sector The ISM manufacturing index held up better than expected in August, coming in at 52.8, unchanged from July and better than the 51.9 consensus. Mixed regional indicators and a softer China PMI had raised warning flags, but instead new orders moved back into positive territory at 51.3 from 48 while employment rose to a five-month high of 54.2, boosting hopes of a decent manufacturing contribution to Friday's jobs number. Regarding jobs, the ISM reported that “companies continued to hire at strong rates in August, with few indications of layoffs, hiring freezes or head-count reductions through attrition. Panelists reported lower rates of quits, a positive trend”. US and Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers' indices Source: Macrobond, ING   There was also a rise in the backlog of orders which suggests that the dip in the production component to 50.4 from 53.5 is just a temporary blip and that manufacturing output can continue growing at a firm pace over coming months. Indeed, the ISM cite the better lead time for supplier deliveries and the falling prices paid component as factors that “should bring buyers back into the market, improving new order levels” The Fed will also take some comfort from the prices paid component declining to 52.5. This index was above 80 as recently as May and reflects the steep falls in energy and key commodity prices. Putting it together, with the better trade and inventory numbers and the massive support to consumer spending power and confidence from the falls in gasoline prices we look for 3% annualised GDP growth in the third quarter after the technical recession in the first half of the year. This should be supportive of our Fed funds call of 3.75-4% rates for year end. Construction highlights the weakening medium-term outlook There was less positive news in the construction data, which fell 0.4% month-on-month  in July after a 0.5% fall in June. Residential construction was the main reason with the slowdown in housing activity set to translate into falling home building over at least the next six months. Annualised US residential and non-residential construction spending ($bn) Source: Macrobond, ING   Declining housing transactions implies big declines in residential construction and weakness in some retail sales components such as building supplies, furniture and home furnishings. Falling house prices would compound the downside risk for confidence and spending so while 3Q activity overall looks pretty good, 4Q will be much more challenging, especially with China under pressure and Europe facing an energy catastrophe. Read this article on THINK TagsUS Orders Manufacturing Construction Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

  Yesterday morning, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Australia for July showed a decline to 49.3 from 52.5, the US dollar index showed a daily increase of 0.91%, and as a result, the aussie lost 0.89%. The price is approaching the target level of 0.6755 on the daily chart. Breaking the support opens the 0.6685 target. The general trend is down in the medium term, as the price develops below the indicator lines. The Marlin Oscillator is going down in the negative area. The price is also declining below both indicator lines on a four-hour scale. The Marlin Oscillator is developing in its lower half – in the downward trend territory. We are waiting for further weakening of the Australian currency.     Relevance up to 05:00 2022-09-03 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320619

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair bounce was capped at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level located at the 1.0078 and pushed down by bears. In order to extend the bounce higher, bulls must break through this level and test the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at 1.0133. The momentum is negative again as the market breaks below the parity level again as the main data from the USA are scheduled for release later on in form of the NFP Payrolls for the month of August. The nearest technical support is seen at 0.9955 and 0.9901. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.00077 WR2 - 0.99699 WR1 - 0.99503 Weekly Pivot - 0.99321 WS1 - 0.99125 WS2 - 0.98943 WS3 - 0.98565 Trading Outlook: There is no sign of relief for the EUR as the down trend should continue lower towards the level or 0.9900 and below. The EUR is under the strong bearish pressure and as long as the USD is kept being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-03 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291129

Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has made another fresh low at the level of 1.1498 and continues to move away from the trend line resistance. The nearest horizontal technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1622 and this level is the next target for bulls in a case of a local pull-back. The next target for bears is located at the level of 1.1410 (2020 low). The momentum remains weak and negative on the H4 time frame chart, so the larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.18043 WR2 - 1.17392 WR1 - 1.17002 Weekly Pivot - 1.16741 WS1 - 1.16351 WS2 - 1.16090 WS3 - 1.15439 Trading Outlook: The Cable is way below 100 and 200 DMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of down trend termination or reversal. The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame chart last week. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1410. Please remember: trend is your friend.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-03 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291131

The US currency is closing the week strongly higher, having confirmed its leading position once again. Its European rival is rapidly losing ground. According to analysts, EUR/USD will be retesting the parity level from time to time, which is not good for the euro. The greenback, which has reached its peak in the past 20 years, started its rally late on Thursday, September 1. On the first day of autumn, the US dollar posted the third week of continuous gains. So, on Friday, it recorded the highest value in the past two decades trading against the euro and the yen. The US dollar hit 20-year highs following the release of the manufacturing index in the US. The data showed that the ISM Manufacturing PMI stayed at the same level of 52.8 in August. Some analysts expected a drop to 52 points. Yet, as the data shows, activity in the US manufacturing sector has notably increased. The indicator has been showing strength for a long time already. In this light, the European currency is noticeably retreating against its American counterpart. The euro opened this week below the parity level but managed to win back some losses later on. In the middle of the trading week, EUR/USD recovered to 1.0078 amid lower gas and oil prices and hawkish comments from the ECB. For your reference, the euro first tested the party level in early July and then slumped to the critical level of 0.9903. The situation only worsened as EUR was struggling to leave the parity level and withstand the downward pressure. On Friday morning, September 2, the EUR/USD pair was trading near 0.9970. There is a possibility that the pair may slightly advance to 0.9980. Its breakout will open the way for sellers towards the area of 0.9800–0.9820. Monetary policy tightening of the US Federal Reserve provides significant support to the greenback. The dollar is getting stronger as the Fed's September meeting is approaching. At the same time, the European currency is in a much less favorable position as it is pressured by a protracted energy crisis in Europe. Market participants expect the Fed to maintain its tight monetary policy as this measure is necessary to tackle accelerated inflation. The rate is projected to increase by 75 basis points to 3-3.25%. On Friday, the employment data in the US will be released. Estimates suggest that the unemployment rate in August stayed close to 3.5% recorded in July. The nonfarm payroll employment has increased by 300K. The Federal Reserve will consider this data to evaluate the state of the labor market and make a decision on the key rate. Experts assume that strong macroeconomic data will greenlight the rate hike through 2023. Markets are sure that the Fed will raise the rate for the third time in September by 75 basis points. For a different scenario, the Fed will need to see a deep decline in the labor market. Yet, there are currently no signs that it is cooling down. This summer, the US economy performed relatively well despite the threat of a recession. However, analysts at Danske Bank are skeptical about the current policy of the Fed. They point out that headline inflation in the country has reached its peak while the labor market and inflationary pressure remain strong. This makes it harder for the regulator to avoid recession as this is where the US economy is headed in 2023, Danske Bank concludes.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320649

While there are signs that activity may be slowing and inflation is peaking, there is a long way to go before inflation gets close to target. With excess demand still a clear concern for the Bank of Canada (BoC), we expect a 75bp hike. A hawkish BoC should ultimately help a CAD recovery, but that should take time to materialise The Bank of Canada hiked rates by 100bp in July with more expected by year-end Mixed data, but inflation backdrop suggests more tightening The Bank of Canada surprised markets with a 100bp rate hike at the July policy meeting as it sought to “front load the path to higher interest rates”. It suggested that "interest rates will need to rise further" with the central bank "resolute in its commitment to price stability". Since 13 July, the data has been a little mixed. Second-quarter GDP came in below expectations at 3.3%, but consumer spending rose 6.9% annualised with non-residential investment up 13.9%. It was a 30.5% surge in imports and a 27.6% drop in residential investment that held back growth. The residential story is obviously a worry while the fact employment has fallen for two consecutive quarters is also a slight concern. However, we see the loss of jobs as a temporary blip and the strength in domestic demand still points to an upward trend in employment activity. Moreover, the BoC will be concentrating on the strength in consumer demand and the fact inflation remains way above target at 7.6% with core inflation above 5%. Remember that the BoC suggested the economy is experiencing excess demand and has repeatedly warned that elevated inflation expectations heighten the risk that “inflation becomes entrenched in price and wage-setting. If that occurs, the economic cost of restoring price stability will be higher”. Given this situation, we expect the Bank of Canada to opt for a 75bp interest rate hike next Wednesday. This would leave the policy rate at 3.25%, which is above the “neutral rate”, assumed to be 2-3% by the Bank of Canada. We don’t think it will stop there given a desire to make positive restrictions to ensure inflation gets back to target. We expect a further 75bp of hikes by year-end. The Fed and BoC have historically moved in tandem Source: Refinitiv, ING FX: Good news for CAD, but more time is needed to recover The OIS market shows that a 75bp hike in September by the BoC is fully priced in, which suggests CAD should not directly benefit from the move on the day of the announcement. The market reaction will instead depend on forward-looking language by the BoC. Market pricing currently implies 50bp of extra tightening by year-end, which is below our expectations for 75bp. Furthermore, a Fed-style protest against any rate cut expectations for 2023 cannot be excluded and would have positive implications for CAD. In other words, there is decent potential for a repricing higher in BoC rate expectations. We do see a hawkish 75bp hike supporting CAD on the day of the announcement, but most of the benefits of the BoC tightening for the loonie may take time to emerge, and would likely rely on stabilisation in global risk sentiment and some easing in USD strength. This could start to happen towards the end of the year, and still, high energy prices do suggest that a move to 1.25 in early 2023 is a tangible possibility. Read this article on THINK TagsCanada Bank of Canada Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair Euro tested 1.0026 at the time when the MACD was just starting to move above zero, which was a good signal to buy. It led to a price increase of around 15 pips, after which pressure returned mainly because of weak statistics on the Euro area. Sometime later, the pair tested 1.0005, but this time the MACD line was far below zero, which should have limited the downward potential. Surprisingly, the quote continued to move down, and long positions from 0.9959 brought losses. Euro fell yesterday because of the disappointing data on the volume of retail trade in Germany and index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Germany and the whole Euro area. Similar index from the US also led to its decline as the better-than-expected figure strengthened the positions of euro sellers and dollar buyers. This led to the fall of EUR/USD to yearly lows Data on the foreign trade balance of Germany and producer price index of the eurozone are scheduled to be released today, but they are of little interest to the market. That is why the focus will shift in the afternoon, after the release of reports on the unemployment rate, change in the number of people employed in the non-farm sector, change in the average hourly wage and share of the economically active population in the US. All of these are likely to lead to a surge in volatility as their numbers are expected to be much better than the forecasts. This will prompt another decrease in EUR/USD. The opposite scenario will start an upward correction. For long positions: Buy euro when the quote reaches 0.9978 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0119. A rally will occur only if statistics in the US come out lower than the forecasts. Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 0.9959, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 0.9978 and 1.0019. For short positions: Sell euro when the quote reaches 0.9959 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9919. Pressure will return if statistics in the US exceed expectations. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 0.9978, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 0.9959 and 0.9919. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-03 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320645

It seems most of Wall Street believes September will be a month we won’t want to remember. ​ We are less than two weeks away from a pivotal inflation report and three weeks from the FOMC meeting. ​ The repositioning of portfolios is just beginning as the Fed accelerates the balance sheet runoff, while we are barely seeing signs that real economy is starting to feel the impact of tightening. US stocks are declining after another round of strong labor and manufacturing data confirm the Fed’s hawkish stance that they can remain aggressive with the tightening of policy. If the economy remains resilient over the next few months, the fed-funds futures market might believe the Fed won’t be done tightening at the end of year. ​ Markets might start pricing in a February rate hike as well, if pricing pressures don’t show further signs of easing with the September 13th inflation report. ​US Data Key manufacturing data and jobless claims continue to push back the idea that the economy is headed towards a recession. ​ Many were expecting to start to see signs of weakness with the labor market and sluggishness with factory activity, but that apparently didn’t happen in August. ​ Initial jobless claims declined by 5,000 to 232,000, an improvement from the downwardly revised 237,000 prior weekly reading, and much better-than-expected 248,000 consensus estimate. The Challenger, Gray, & Christmas report showed layoffs are low and supports the idea the labor market is still clicking on all cylinders. ​ The ISM manufacturing report also impressed as factory activity attempts to stabilize. The headline ISM gauge of factory activity held steady at a two-year low and prices paid showed they are continuing to decline. ​ The ISM employment component also rebounded back to expansion territory. ​ The US economy is still looking good and that should allow the Fed to remain aggressive with tightening over the coming months. ​ The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow reading for the third quarter posted a significant increase from 1.57% to 2.59%. It seems like a certainty that the economy will avoid a third consecutive negative GDP reading, which will completely end the debate that the economy is in a recession. ​ ​ ​ FX It comes as no surprise that the dollar hit a fresh record high on both safe-haven flows from global economic weakness and as a resilient US economy paves the way for the Fed to remain aggressive. ​ King dollar has awoken from a nap ​ and that could spell a lot more pain for the European currencies. Bitcoin dips below $20,000 Bitcoin is back below the $20,000 level as risk aversion runs wild on Wall Street. ​ Bitcoin’s slide however seems small considering the aggressive selling happening with risky assets. ​ The true test for Bitcoin is if it can stay close to the $20,000 level after the NFP release. A hot labor market report and Fed rate hike bets might surge and that could trigger downward pressure that eyes the summer lows. ​ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

After three straight losing sessions, the Australian dollar is in positive territory today. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6802, up 0.21%. It has been a rough stretch for the Australian dollar, which fell 2.89% in August. On Thursday, AUD/USD fell as low as 0.6771, its lowest level since July 15th. The Australian dollar is sensitive to risk and the black clouds hovering over Europe have sapped risk appetite and are weighing on the Aussie. Russia shuts Nord Stream 1  The war in Ukraine has raised the price of energy and food imports for Australians and caused high inflation. Headline CPI rose to 6.1% in Q2, the highest level since 1990. The potential energy crisis in Europe has badly strained relations between Western Europe and Russia and dampened risk sentiment. Moscow has shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for three days of maintenance, although Germany has charged that this is a pretense and the pipeline is fully operational. If the gas flow is not renewed on Saturday, we could have a full-blown energy crisis come Monday morning. In addition, The Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, which finally has been internalized by the markets, has boosted the US dollar, which has made broad gains against the major currencies. The RBA has its hands full with rising inflation and a slowing economy. Policy makers are hoping to avoid a recession and guide the economy to a soft landing, but the central bank, like the Fed, has made clear that its paramount goal is to curb inflation and avoid inflation expectations from becoming anchored. The RBA meets on September 6th and the markets have priced in a 0.50% hike, which would be the third consecutive 0.50% increase. All eyes are on the US nonfarm payrolls report, which could result in volatility in the currency markets in the North American session.  The markets are expecting a strong gain of 300 thousand, and a reading around this level would indicate that the labour market remains strong. This could push the US dollar higher, as the Fed is relying on a robust labour market to continue with sharp rate increases. However, a weak NFP report could weigh on the US dollar, as it would force the Fed to consider easing policy, which could mean a 0.50% hike in September rather than a 0.75% increase. . AUD/USD Technical 0.6830 is a weak resistance line, followed by resistance at 0.6919 There is support at 0.6766 and 0.6677 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Investors appear relatively pleased with the jobs report despite some initial choppy trade following the release. Nonfarm payrolls nudges above forecast The headline NFP figure was a little larger than expected at 315,000 which may have created that initial unease as a knockout report could have effectively paved the way for a 75 basis point rate hike this month. But once you dig a little deeper, there are aspects of the report that will please the Fed and support the case for easing off the brake. While we can’t put too much weight on one report, a surprise spike in participation from 62.1% to 62.4% will undoubtedly be welcomed, lifting unemployment to 3.7% from 3.5% along with it. As will hourly earnings rising by 5.2% against expectations of a small increase to 5.3%. All of this will be a relief to policymakers but I’m not sure it will be enough to change their minds at this point. There’s been such an effort to put 75 basis points on the table in recent weeks, to change their mind on the back of this would seriously undermine their guidance in future. If paired with another decent drop in inflation in a couple of weeks, more may be convinced. We’re seeing some relief in equity markets after what has been a pretty dire week until now. US futures have added half a percent since the release while the dollar and US yields are slightly lower, albeit after some very choppy trade initially. Gold is breathing a huge sigh of relief, up around 0.75% on the day, with $1,680 support potentially safe for now. This is a really significant area of support for the yellow metal and while it didn’t get too close on this occasion, a move below could see gold trading at two-year lows which could be a major blow. Bitcoin is another instrument that is displaying some relief having spent the week desperately defending $20,000 support. The report isn’t enough in itself to overly excite traders, not even the crypto crowd I would have thought, but it could reinforce that support which is important. A break of $20,000 could be painful for bitcoin and today’s data may enable it to hold above here for a while longer yet. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. A welcome US jobs report - MarketPulseMarketPulse

US The countdown to the September 13 inflation report begins as investors fixate over a wrath of Fed speak, with special attention going towards Chair Powell’s Thursday discussion on monetary policy. It is a slow start to the trading week as US markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. Tuesday contains the release of the August ISM services index. Service sector activity is expected to show a modest decline but remain in expansion territory. US trade data will be released on Wednesday, but most of the attention will fall on Lael Brainard’s speech on the economic outlook and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book. Michael Barr will also speak on financial system fairness.  Powell’s speech on Thursday could be massive as it will be his first time speaking since the Jackson Hole Symposium.  Wall Street is keeping a close eye on initial jobless claims as we still have yet to see any signs of trouble with the labor market as layoffs remain low.  Friday’s Fed speak contains appearances by Charles Evans and Christopher Waller.   Earnings season is finishing up, but stocks will definitely remain in focus as more investors are becoming bearish.  Apple’s launch event could be huge as they will unveil the iPhone 14 lineup and the next round of smartwatches.    EU  There’s no doubt about what the focus next week will be; the only question on everyone’s mind is will it be 50 basis points or 75? Markets are increasingly favouring the latter despite the ECB previously hinting at the former. That said, prior to the July meeting they effectively told everyone the first hike would be 25 basis points before opting for 50 so we can probably take things with a pinch of salt for now. Other than that, there’s a selection of tier two and three data including final services PMIs, retail sales and revised GDP. UK  The UK is heading for a recession, one the Bank of England has seen coming for a long time. When it released its forecasts in August, they looked quite shocking. Since then, expectations have lowered further which will make the Monetary Policy Report Hearing on Wednesday all the more interesting. That aside, we’ll hear from Catherine Mann on Monday and then it’s mostly tier two and three data including final services PMI, construction PMI and consumer inflation expectations. Russia Swift action by the CBR after the invasion meant that not only is inflation not the problem many expected it to be, but the central bank has actually been able to cut interest rates below where they were before in order to try and support the economy. CPI data next week could tell us how much further room the central bank has to cut and ease pressure on the currency. South Africa A relatively quiet week with GDP data on Tuesday the only major release. Regardless of the number, a large rate hike, perhaps 75 basis points, is likely on the cards in a few weeks. Turkey Inflation is expected to surpass 80% shortly after the CBRT decided to continue its easing cycle with a 1% rate cut to 13%. With the central bank refusing to accept responsibility for soaring inflation, the sky’s the limit. Switzerland Data last week showed inflation accelerating faster than expected, increasing pressure on the SNB to hike more forcefully. Barring an inter-meeting hike, the focus next week will be on the GDP and unemployment data. China This will be a busy week in China as investors keep a close eye on the Chengdu shutdowns and a wrath of economic data that could confirm the trend of weakening economic activity.  FX traders are also closely monitoring the yuan and the possible breach of the 7-handle.  China’s trade data could provide more information on how quickly demand is weakening. Both imports and exports are expected to soften, while government stimulus should provide a boost for aggregate social financing.   India Next week brings the services PMI reading for August. Strong economic data releases will allow the RBI to hike rates even further.     Australia & New Zealand The greenback’s relentless rally has taken the Australian dollar and kiwi to seven-week lows. The global bond market selloff is being led by a surge in Treasury yields and that’s kept the interest rate differential widely in the greenback’s favour. This week a wrath of economic releases will take a backseat to the RBA rate decision. The RBA may downshift to a slower pace of tightening with only a 25 basis point rate increase.  The bank has raised rates by 175 basis points over the last four meetings, but given the grim outlook, a smaller rate hike could be justified. At the beginning of the week, Australia will release services PMI data, inflation readings, ANZ job advertisements, and current account data.  Second quarter GDP is expected to show a slight improvement and will be released after the RBA decision.   Economic releases and speeches will be limited for New Zealand.  RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk will speak on Wednesday. The ANZ commodity price index for August will be released on Monday.  A few other third-tier economic releases will also come out in the latter part of the week.     Japan The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan may continue to drive the yen’s depreciation against the dollar.  The Japanese yen has been struggling as central banks globally remain very hawkish in fighting inflation.  The BOJ may need a slight change to their policy which could eventually lead to the abandoning of Yield Curve Control (YCC), but that would require a major reversal of BOJ Gov Kuroda’s decade-long stance of super loose policy.   Several important economic indicators will be released over the next week including the services PMI, household spending, the final reading of second-quarter GDP, current account, bank lending, and the eco watchers survey.   Singapore There are no major data or risk events in Singapore next week. The Singapore dollar is gaining a lot of attention on Wall Street as many big banks anticipate that Singapore’s central bank (MAS) will extend policy tightening.   Economic Calendar Saturday, Sept. 3 Economic Events Global energy crisis in focus as the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline is scheduled to reopen after Russia’s unscheduled maintenance Sunday, Sept. 4 No major economic events scheduled Monday, Sept. 5 Economic Data/Events US markets closed for Labor Day New UK PM is announced Thailand CPI  Singapore global PMI, retail sales India services PMI Australia inflation gauge, job advertisements, inventories, services PMI China Caixin services PMI Eurozone retail sales, services PMI Japan PMI New Zealand commodity prices Switzerland GDP Taiwan foreign reserves OPEC+ meeting on output Ukrainian PM Shmyhal attends the EU-Ukraine Association Council meeting in Brussels BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Mann speaks UK Finance publishes its quarterly household finance review of activity Tuesday, Sept. 6 Economic Data/Events RBA rate decision: Expected to raise interest rates by 50bp to 2.35% Australia BoP Germany factory orders Japan household spending Mexico international reserves South Africa GDP US primary elections scheduled in Massachusetts Wednesday, Sept. 7 Economic Data/Events US trade Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks at an event hosted by the Brookings Institution Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks on Market News International webcast The Fed releases its Beige Book of regional economic activity Eurozone GDP Australia GDP, foreign reserves Canada rate decision: Expected to raise interest rates by 75bps to 3.25% Poland rate decision: Expected to raise interest rates by 25bps to 6.75% Germany industrial production China trade, foreign reserves Singapore reserves Japan leading index, coincident index Apple event, dubbed “Far Out” is expected to feature new iPhones and Apple watches BOE Governor Bailey appears before the Treasury Committee Thursday, Sept. 8 Economic Data/Events ECB rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 50bps to 1.00% US initial jobless claims Fed’s Powell speaks at Cato Institute Mexico CPI  Australia trade France trade Japan GDP, BoP New Zealand manufacturing activity South Africa current account, manufacturing production Thailand consumer confidence Chicago Fed President Evans President speak at College of DuPage economic forum Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Kashkari speaks at the “Toward an Inclusive Recovery” virtual event RBA Governor Lowe speaks at the annual Anika Foundation lunch in Sydney EIA crude oil inventory report Friday, Sept. 9 Economic Data/Events US wholesale inventories Russia CPI, GDP  France industrial production Mexico industrial production Canada unemployment China CPI, PPI, aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans Japan money stock New Zealand truckometer heavy traffic index, card spending Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts EU energy ministers extraordinary meeting to tackle energy crisis in Brussels President Biden travels to the new Intel facility in Ohio to discuss the Chips Act Sovereign Rating Updates Finland (Fitch) Netherlands (Fitch) Norway (S&P) Portugal (S&P) Ukraine (S&P) This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Week Ahead - Rate Hikes Keep Coming - MarketPulseMarketPulse

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the US jobs report, 24-year high in USDJPY, oil ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and Nord Stream 1. https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/oanda-market-insights/id1358715867?mt=2 https://subscribeonandroid.com/audioboom.com/channels/4947364.rss This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Market Insights Podcast (Episode 371) - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Different shades of recession are spreading across the globe at record speed as soaring inflation, geopolitical tensions, and astronomical gas prices show no signs of abating. As central banks grapple with working out how to balance inflation and growth, there's one thing we're sure of: tough times lie ahead In this article A return to reality for Europe The colours of recession Out with the old, in with the new Looking ahead Recession’s coat of many colours ING's Carsten Brzeski on the different shades of recession spreading across the globe.   A return to reality for Europe Returning from the summer break always helps when looking at the bright side of the world's economic prospects. An often heard truism is that relaxed economists make fewer pessimistic forecasts. But when you're tracking the European and, specifically, German economies, no summer break is long enough to make short-term economic forecasts more optimistic. On the contrary, returning to Europe’s economic reality after the summer means returning to a recessionary environment, as gas prices are moving from one astronomic high to the other and will lead to unprecedentedly high energy bills over the winter. Even without a complete stop to Russian gas, high energy and food prices will weigh heavily on consumers and industry, making a technical recession – at least – inevitable. The colours of recession No two recessions, however, are the same. In fact, we are currently seeing different colours of recession across the world. The US economy has actually been in a technical recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth – but it feels nowhere close to a recession. Our chief international economist in New York, James Knightley, says weaker global growth, the strong dollar and the slowdown in the housing market on the back of higher interest rates, will make it feel like a ‘real’ recession at the turn of the year, however. In other regions of the world, we are not currently seeing fully-fledged recessions, but given that China and emerging markets need higher growth rates than the Western hemisphere, the expected sub-potential growth rates can easily feel recessionary. As a consequence, even if Europe currently remains the epicentre of geopolitical tensions, it almost looks as if recession and recessionary trends are a new export item. Out with the old, in with the new With different shades of recession spreading across the global economy, but inflation still stubbornly high as a result of post-pandemic mismatches of demand and supply as well as energy price shocks, the dilemma for major central banks is worsening: how to balance inflation and growth. In the past, the answer would have been clear: most central banks would have shifted towards an easing bias. Not this time around. We are currently witnessing a paradigm shift, recently illustrated at the Jackson Hole conference. A paradigm shift that is characterised by central banks trying to break inflation, accepting the potential costs of pushing economies further into recession. This is similar to what we had in the early 1980s. Back then, higher inflation was also mainly a supply-side phenomenon but eventually led to price-wage spirals and central banks had to hike policy rates to double-digit levels in order to bring inflation down. With the current paradigm shift, central banks are trying to get ahead of the curve. At least ahead of the curve of the 1970s and 1980s. Whether the paradigm shift of central bankers is the right one or simply too much of a good thing is a different question. What strikes me is that central bankers have implicitly moved away from measuring the impact of their policies by medium-term variables and expectations towards measuring it by current and actual inflation outcomes. This could definitely lead to some overshooting of policy rates and post-policy mistakes. Looking ahead We still think that the paradigm shift will not last that long and looming recessions will bring new pivots, forcing the Fed to stop hiking rates at the end of the year and eventually cutting rates again in 2023, and stopping the ECB from engaging in a longer series of rate hikes. Reasons for this out-of-consensus view are that we expect a more severe recession than the Fed and ECB do, and a faster drop in US inflation, in particular, than the Fed expects. Also, in a recession, any neutral interest rate is lower than in a strong growth environment. Finally (and a bit meanly), central banks have not had a good track record with their inflation predictions over the past few years. In any case, we are back from the summer break and looking ahead to a very exciting autumn. Enjoy reading and stay tuned. TagsMonthly Update   Source: ING Monthly: Recession’s coat of many colours | Article | ING Think   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.07% to a one-month low, the S&P 500 fell 1.07%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.31%. Chevron Corp was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 2.31 points or 1.49% to close at 157.85. Salesforce.com Inc rose 0.16 points or 0.10% to close at 153.69. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc rose 0.01 points or 0.03% to close at 35.27. The losers were 3M Company shares, which lost 3.98 points or 3.17% to end the session at 121.65. Honeywell International Inc. shares rose 2.01% or 3.84 points to close at 186.89, while Procter & Gamble Company shed 1.78% or 2.48 points to close at 137.16. Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 4.34% to hit 106.86, Hess Corporation, which gained 3.83% to close at 120.91, and also shares of The Mosaic Company, which rose 3.79% to end the session at 54.84. The biggest losers were DISH Network Corporation, which shed 4.49% to close at 17.01. Shares of Generac Holdings Inc shed 4.13% to end the session at 223.39. Quotes of Zebra Technologies Corporation decreased in price by 3.92% to 297.60. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Venus Concept Inc, which rose 54.87% to hit 0.54, Sunrise New Energy Co Ltd, which gained 31.46% to close at 2.80. , as well as shares of Advanced Human Imaging Ltd ADR, which rose 29.90% to close the session at 1.26. The drop leaders were PolyPid, which fell 73.47% to close at 1.43. Shares of Shuttle Pharmaceuticals Inc lost 71.56% to end the session at 14.90. Quotes of ShiftPixy Inc decreased in price by 33.92% to 13.60. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1,797) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,297), while quotes of 136 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,338 companies fell in price, 1,371 rose, and 257 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.35% to 25.47. Gold futures for December delivery added 0.70%, or 12.05, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures rose 0.59%, or 0.51, to $87.12 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery rose 1.02%, or 0.94, to $93.30 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.17% to 1.00, while USD/JPY fell 0.02% to hit 140.18. Futures on the USD index fell 0.12% to 109.55.       Relevance up to 04:00 2022-09-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291315

Crypto Industry News: The organization that builds the Cardano blockchain (ADA) Input Output Global has confirmed the date of the long-awaited Vasil hard fork. It will be carried out on September 22, which is roughly a week after Ethereum Merge. Cardano's price response looks quite lethargic despite the positive news, which perfectly illustrates the terrible sentiment on the cryptocurrency market. The quick deadline of the fork is all the more surprising because in the past developers reported postponing the event due to a significant amount of bugs and ambiguities during testing. At the same time, Cardano developers with Charles Hoskinson are rather meticulous, so the faster implementation date is rather a glove to Ethereum, because according to the developers it is Vasil's hard fork that is the most significant update of Cardano in history, which will ultimately increase network bandwidth and ensure lower transaction costs thanks to which it will increase the competitiveness against the recently popular Bitgert. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had extended its move to the upside again. The bulls had managed to rally 17.62% so far and are currently testing the technical resistance located at $1,654. The immediate technical support is seen at $1,530, but the key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,425 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,281. The momentum is positive and very strong, however the overbought market conditions can be seen on the H4 time frame chart. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,624 WR2 - $1,598 WR1 - $1,581 Weekly Pivot - $1,572 WS1 - $1,555 WS2 - $1,546 WS3 - $1,520 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been doing the lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.           Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291532

Several interesting market entry signals were formed yesterday. I suggest you take a look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. In my morning forecast, I reversed the growth and a false breakout formed at this level led to an excellent entry point for short positions. However, despite the weak fundamental statistics and the continuation of the bear market, the pair recovered, which resulted in consolidating losses. A breakthrough and reverse test of 0.9909 gave a signal to buy, which led to the pair's growth by more than 40 points. The bears showed themselves around 0.9934 in the afternoon, forming a false breakout there and a sell signal. As a result, the pair fell by 20 points and that was it. COT report: Before talking about the further prospects of the EUR/USD movement, let's look at what happened in the futures market and how the positions of the Commitment of Traders have changed. The Commitment of Traders (COT report) for August 30 logged a decline in both short and long positions. If a week ago there was a surge in activity, now there has been a similar decline. This indicates a decrease in investor appetite for risk after the release of the eurozone inflation data, which once again rose to a high in the last ten years. The problem is exacerbated by the energy crisis, as the flow of gas through the Nord Stream is practically suspended - this is another increase in energy prices in the winter and upward inflation surges, which will force the European Central Bank to further raise interest rates and tighten belts. This week we are also waiting for the central bank's decision on interest rates, which may aggravate the euro's position against the US dollar. Even though the rate hike will be considered by investors as a signal for the growth of profitability, at the same time there will be a slowdown in economic growth, which is more important. So don't expect a serious euro recovery in the medium term. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 8,567 to 202,258, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 5,000 to 249,934. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position remained negative and decreased to the level of -47,676 against -44,109, which indicates continued pressure on the euro and further fall of the trading instrument. The weekly closing price slightly recovered and amounted to 1.0033 against 0.9978. When to go long on EUR/USD: Today we do not have serious statistics in the first half of the day and people could only pay attention to the report on the volume of industrial orders in Germany and the index of business activity in the construction sector from IHS Markit. Both indicators may fall, but I do not expect serious pressure on the euro, as traders even ignored yesterday's weak data on the services sector. It looks like everyone is "charged" for the ECB meeting, which will be held this Thursday, so the demand for the euro in the short term will remain. In case of bad reports and a negative reaction, forming a false breakout in the area of the nearest support at 0.9941 will be a reason to open long positions. In this case, it will be possible to count on building a correction and updating the resistance at 0.9984. A breakthrough and test of this range would make it possible to get out of the bearish pressure, which will hit the stops, creating another signal for entry into long positions with the possibility of a larger move up to 1.0039. The farthest target will be the area of 1.0076, where I recommend taking profits. If the EUR/USD declines and there are no bulls at 0.9941, and moving averages are also passing there, playing on the bulls' side, the pressure on the pair will increase. This will bring up the 0.9910 update. From this level, I recommend buying also only on a false breakout. I advise you to open long positions on EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only from the annual low of 0.9879, or even lower - in the area of 0.9819, counting on an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day. ---- When to go short on EUR/USD: Bears received a significant rebuff yesterday and failed to offer anything even amid negative fundamental statistics. The reason for this may be the ECB's upcoming meeting, at which it is still not clear how much the central bank will raise interest rates: by 0.5% or 0.75%. A good option for selling would be a false breakout in the area of the nearest resistance at 0.9984, growth to which may occur after the release of a number of good fundamental statistics on Germany. All this will lead to the movement of the euro down to the area of 0.9941. A breakdown and consolidation below this range, as well as a reverse test from the bottom up, create another sell signal with the removal of bulls' stop orders and the resumption of the bearish trend with the prospect of updating 0.9910. Consolidating below this area is a direct road to the annual low of 0.9879, where I recommend completely leaving short positions. A more distant target will be the area of 0.9819. If EUR/USD moves higher during the European session, and there are no bears at 0.9984, we can expect a bigger push for the pair, as bulls retain control of the market. Then I advise you to postpone shorts until 1.0029. Forming a false breakout there will be a new starting point for entering short positions. You can sell EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from the high of 1.0076, or even higher - from 1.0127, counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a slight advantage of the bulls. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakthrough of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 0.9910 will lead to a fall in the euro. Surpassing the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 0.9970 will lead to the growth of the euro. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320887

Market activity was noticeably lower than usual on Monday due to the holiday in the US. Local markets were closed and only electronic trading took place. Today, however, important economic data will be released, which fully reflect the negative situation in Europe. According to the data presented, business activity in the service sector of Germany, the Euro area and the UK showed a decrease, with Germany and the eurozone's level below 50 points. This indicates lack of growth in the sector, which is important for the Western post-industrial economy. Attention was also drawn to the retail sales report in the Euro area, which declined 0.9% y/y and 0.3% m/m in July. The data prior to this was revised upwards to -1.0%. In the wake of all these events, as well as the resumption of growth in oil prices in response to the unexpected decision of OPEC to slightly reduce the volume of production in order to keep prices near $100 per barrel, the European stock market lost all its positiveness and finished trading in different directions. The gloomy outlook for the European economy is back in the spotlight after the release of weak service PMI data. Additional negative was the decision to continue deliveries of natural gas to Europe only after the lifting of sanctions. This means that energy crisis can develop after the collapse of local industry, then proceed into a full-scale crisis with social consequences. In terms of the forex market, nothing significant happened yesterday because of low trading volatility. The ICE dollar index, having tested the 110-point mark, failed to gain a foothold above, and is currently below this level. It is likely that players are anticipating the outcome of the ECB meeting this week, as well as the speeches of Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell. Today, the RBA raised its key interest rate by 0.50% to 2.35%, but did not cause any special movement in pairs with the Australian currency. Ahead are reports on business activity in the construction sector of Germany and the UK, as well as the index of purchasing managers for the non-manufacturing sector of the US. The dynamics can set the tone for trading not only in the US, but also on other world trading floors. But there is a chance that the current situation is just the calm before the storm, which may arise after the ECB meeting and release of GDP data from a number of economically developed countries. Forecasts for today: EUR/USD The pair is consolidating below 0.9975. A break of this level may lead to further growth towards 1.0050. USD/CAD The pair is trading below 1.3135. Continued growth in oil prices may put pressure on it, which will push the quote to 1.3065.       Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320908

BoC will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, September 7. Markets expect BoC to raise its policy rate by 75 bps. CAD needs a hawkish surprise to outperform USD. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to hike its policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) to 3.25% from 2.50% following its September policy meeting. In July, the BoC surprised markets with a 100 bps rate hike and acknowledged in its policy statement that it had underestimated inflation since the spring of 2021 mainly because of global factors. Furthermore, the bank noted that its intention to front-load rate increases was due to broadening and persistent inflation. While commenting on the policy outlook in the ensuing press conference, "our aim is to get rates to the top-end or slightly above neutral range quickly,” BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said. According to the BoC’s policy statement, the neutral range is between 2% and 3%. In the meantime, Statistics Canada reported on August 16 that inflation in Canada, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 7.6% on a yearly basis in July from 8.1% in June. Hawkish scenario In case the BoC goes against the market expectation again and delivers another 100 bps rate hike, this could trigger a significant reaction and provide a boost to the Canadian dollar. In that scenario, the CAD should easily outperform the euro and the Japanese yen due to the policy divergence between the respective central banks. Against the USD, CAD’s gains could remain limited with investors awaiting the August inflation data from the US before deciding whether to price in a 75 bps Fed rate hike later in the month. It’s worth noting, however, that even if the BoC decides to raise its policy rate by 100 bps, it could refrain from committing to such aggressive rate hikes in the future. Since there will not be a press conference this time around, the language in the policy statement will be scrutinized by investors. Neutral scenario The BoC could opt for a 75 bps hike, as expected, and say in its policy statement that it will adopt a data-dependent approach moving forward while reiterating its commitment to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Such a rate increase would lift the policy rate “slightly above” the upper limit of its neutral range. A neutral tone could make it difficult for the loonie to stay resilient against its American counterpart. Dovish scenario If the bank raises the policy rate by 50 bps, the CAD is likely to face heavy selling pressure. The BoC could acknowledge the slowdown in economic activity alongside softening price pressures and tilt toward a more conservative policy stance. The latest data from Canada revealed that Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the second quarter. This print followed the 3.1% growth recorded in the first quarter and missed the market expectation of 4.5%. Among the three different scenarios listed above, the dovish is the least likely one. Major central banks remain focused on bringing down inflation at the expense of growth and the BoC is unlikely to react to a single CPI print. Meanwhile, markets are pricing in a terminal rate of nearly 4%. Hence, a 50 bps rate hike would be a very big dovish surprise even if it’s enough to lift the policy rate to the upper limit of the neutral range.

We expect the Bank of Canada to hike by 75bp and to maintain a hawkish tone for future tightening. In Poland, we see risks of a dovish surprise, as the NBP may only hike by 25bp and sound less hawkish after recent data. Elsewhere, good ISM data has reinforced Fed pricing and the dollar's momentum, while the risk of JPY intervention is rising significantly The Bank of Canada may raise rates by 75bp   We have recently published our monthly update of FX views and forecasts: “FX Talking: This is going to hurt” USD: Eyes on Fed speakers, and on the BoC's rate hike The dollar has remained bid since the start of the week, and was bolstered yesterday by a surprise rise (albeit marginal) in the US ISM service index. Our economist thinks yesterday’s figures endorse our 3%+ 3Q GDP forecast for the US. A solid growth story is indeed a key source of momentum for the dollar rally as markets feel increasingly confident with their pricing for more aggressive Fed tightening. A 75bp hike in September is almost fully priced in now (69bp are embedded into the swap market), but barring any big data disappointment, the room for any dovish re-pricing appears limited at this stage. The sharp underperformance of the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen has continued to fuel dollar strength too. This morning, a miss in Chinese trade data sent USD/CNY to test 9.9800, erasing efforts by the People's Bank of China to support the yuan. It remains to be seen how much Chinese authorities see 7.00 as a pivotal level: it’s possible that policymakers may want to keep USD/CNY below such a level, at least until the party congress is over. Further east, Japanese authorities are again trying verbal intervention as a way of supporting the yen, but markets appear quite happy with testing their tolerance. 145.00 might be the line in the sand: expect any FX intervention around the US or European open when markets are most liquid. Today, the Fed’s Beige Book will be scanned in search of regional economic trends, but the main focus will be on a few Fed speakers. Quite interestingly, we’ll hear from both sides of the spectrum: the quite dovish Lael Brainard and the hawk Loretta Mester. Both are voting members in 2022. Thomas Barkin is also due to speak today, while Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks tomorrow. For now, we see little reason to call for any reversion in the strong dollar pattern. The domestic story was fortified by yesterday’s data and there are no major data releases today, so ultimately the Fed pricing should not be too heavily affected even in the event of some dovish Fedspeak. DXY should remain around its highs. Elsewhere in North America, the Bank of Canada will announce monetary policy today. In our meeting preview, we highlight how the recent jitters to Canada’s growth story suggest another 100bp move is unlikely, but a 75bp rate hike (to 3.25%) is our base case considering that the employment picture remains rather strong and the BoC has remained firm in its intent to fight elevated inflation. 75bp appears to be the call from both economic consensus and the market, and we therefore think forward-looking language will drive most of CAD's reaction today. With “data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting” having become the leitmotiv of developed central bank policy communication lately, there’s surely a risk the BoC will refrain from offering any strong hint on future policy, but a reiteration that more substantial tightening is needed could be enough to see markets push their expectations for peak rates from the current 3.8% to 4%+. CAD is currently going through a rough period, and any support from the BoC today may fade rapidly. However, aggressive tightening by the central bank does raise the upside potential for the loonie beyond the short-term, when a stabilisation in sentiment and solid fundamentals may allow it to recover. We target a return to sub-1.25 levels in USD/CAD early next year. Francesco Pesole EUR: A bit of calm before the ECB? As of this morning, markets are pricing in 66bp of tightening by the European Central Bank at tomorrow’s announcement, but - as discussed in our economics team’s preview - our base case remains a 50bp hike. This obviously widens the scope for a further weakening of the euro later this week, but for today, some wait-and-see approach ahead of the big risk event could cap EUR/USD volatility, and the pair may enter tomorrow’s meeting from the 0.9900 level. A thread to keep an eye on this week aside from central bank activity is the ongoing discussion among EU members about solving the energy price problem. This may have particular relevance for the ECB as an EU-wide cap on energy bills would likely put a lid on inflation expectations, as well as offer a lifeline to the battered economic outlook. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has continued to push for an agreement on price caps and stated yesterday that this could prove to be a relatively quick mechanism to implement. Francesco Pesole GBP: Expect more of the "Truss effect" The change of Prime Minister in the UK is most surely being felt by asset prices. Yesterday, gilts took a big blow, and the pound was the only G10 currency holding on to gains against a rising dollar as Liz Truss took office and reports about draft proposals piled up. So far, what we know is that Truss is planning a £130bn bill to freeze energy bills, to be paired with measures worth £40bn to support businesses. While Truss has also pledged to cut taxes in an effort to support the economy, it’s been reported that the new cost-of-living support packages would likely be funded by a bigger deficit instead of loans/grants to energy companies. All this matters for sterling not only because it has an impact on the growth outlook and Bank of England policy, but because it may have rather wide implications for the UK’s debt position. This is a factor that FX may start to be increasingly sensitive to especially in those instances (like the UK) where there is an increasingly negative current account balance. On the foreign policy side, it’s been reported that Truss is planning to ease the confrontation with the EU over post-Brexit agreements, and refrain from activating Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol which allows the UK to unilaterally suspend parts of the agreement. This is undoubtedly a GBP positive, even though markets had not given a great deal of importance to the previous government’s standoff with the EU on Brexit. Today, expect more GBP volatility as details about Truss's plans continue to emerge. However, the net impact of support measures may not be too straightforward as they may easily get mixed in with the implications for BoE policy. EUR/GBP may edge back above 0.8600 today but seems to lack strong bearish momentum, while cable could re-test 1.1600. Francesco Pesole CEE: NBP slows hiking pace Today in the region we have the second estimate of GDP in Romania, which should show the details of the surprisingly strong economic growth in the second quarter. Also, we will see the release of industrial production in Hungary and Czech National Bank FX intervention data for July. We previously estimated that the CNB spent almost EUR11bn in July, almost half of all costs since mid-May. However, central bank activity since then has been almost zero by our estimates. Later today, we will see the highlight of the week in Central and Eastern Europe, the National Bank of Poland's decision. Our Warsaw team expects a 25bp rate hike to 6.75%, but a 50bp hike may also be on the table. The key though will be governor Adam Glapinski's press conference on Thursday which, given the latest economic data, should be dovish in any case. Markets are shifting rather to the hawkish side after the latest inflation number. So we think the market is expecting a clear response from the NBP to the surprisingly high inflation data and it will be very difficult for the central bank to meet hawkish expectations. Moreover, the NBP has surprised with a smaller step twice out of the last three meetings and in all three cases, it resulted in lower market rates. We think market conditions will lead to the same situation this time again. The Polish zloty is thus vulnerable both from the global environment due to the gas story this week and the domestic environment due to the dovish NBP. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Long positioning is probably the biggest challenge to a further dollar rally from current levels. Yet the juxtaposition of a very hawkish Fed against crumbling growth expectations in Europe and Asia looks set to see the dollar maintaining these lofty levels for the rest of the year In this article Long positions in the dollar are seen as the most crowded trade Macro factors continue to swing in the dollar’s favour Long positions in the dollar are seen as the most crowded trade Surveys this summer have seen fund managers reply ‘long dollars’ when asked what the most crowded trade in global financial markets currently is. Perhaps this should not come as a surprise given the trade-weighted dollar’s near 14% rise this year – with only limited corrections. True measures of dollar positioning remain hard to come by. Traditional gauges, such as net speculative positioning in FX futures markets, do not show extreme readings right now. However, scepticism is growing that this decades-old analytical tool accurately reflects the ever-changing list of participants in the FX market, including the growth of retail. An alternative to positioning data is to gauge sentiment in the FX options market. Here the ‘skew’ towards dollar call options (the right to buy dollars) remains quite stretched. But far from calling a turn in the dollar’s trend, in our opinion, this extreme bullish sentiment is well justified.  The 'risk reversal' or 'skew' for dollar call options remains quite stretched Source: Refintiv, INGDXY Risk Reversal is DXY-weighted of 3m risk reversal for relevant $ FX pairs Macro factors continue to swing in the dollar’s favour The macro factors that have driven the dollar to these levels are well-documented and remain firmly in place. The Fed is happy to remain very hawkish and drive rates deeper into restrictive territory. The Fed understands and indeed intends that US demand should slow to bring inflationary pressures into balance. Inverted yield curves and equity underperformance are typical of this late-cycle economy; it's an environment that typically sees the dollar outperform. These trends look set to dominate for the rest of 2022 and we do not see a dollar turn until the first quarter of next year if that. Equally the challenges posed by the energy crisis have taken their toll on the importers in Europe and Asia. We have documented how this has damaged the euro’s fair value. And the loss of trade surpluses in Europe and Japan now undermines the status of the euro and the yen as safe haven currencies now that the natural demand from their trade accounts has dwindled. Additionally, our team still feels that the ECB tightening cycle, rather than the Fed cycle, is more prone to being repriced lower. We look for the recent narrowing in yield differentials to reverse course. This should see EUR/USD remaining under pressure for most of the year, where the 0.95 level may well be tested. Inverted US yield curve typically occurs late in the economic cycle and is associated with a stronger dollar US 2-10 year yield curve versus DXY (RHS Inverted) Source: Refinitiv, ING  Source: https://think.ing.com/articles/monthly-fx-markets-dollar-rally-still-going/?utm_campaign=September-01_monthly-fx-markets-dollar-rally-still-going&utm_medium=email&utm_source=emailing_article&M_BT=1124162492 Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary:  Today we look at markets trying to remain steady yesterday after a strong US August ISM Services survey took US treasury yields sharply higher again, but that rise in yields aggravated the decline in the Japanese yen, which accelerated lower overnight and hardly registered stern warnings from Japan's Ministry of Finance. We also discuss factors driving gold below $1700/ounce again and the commodities complex weighed down in general by the strong US dollar and economic outlook. Equity market focus on sluggish volatility relative to prior cycles and the ongoing US-China disengagement. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: Podcast: Bank of Japan fiddling as yen burns | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Dollar could rise higher if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell insists on following Paul Volcker's steps in fighting inflation. On Tuesday, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index already hit a record high, while the Intercontinental Exchange Inc. was about a third below its all-time high in 1985. The Fed's own index was about 11% below its March peak this year. Despite the obvious differences in the macroeconomic environment now and 40 years ago, the diversity of dollar indicators hints that traders are not fully convinced that Powell will be as unwaveringly hawkish as his predecessor. The Bloomberg Index, which is broader than its peers and contains key emerging market currencies, is likely to be below its peak if it was around that time. Of course, Powell still has an opportunity to reaffirm his commitment to fighting inflation as he is yet to announce the Fed's next policy decision and rate outlook later this month. "Powell has taken several steps in the direction of Volcker's famous resolve, more openly acknowledging that economic hardship is likely to be the price to be paid in the near term to get inflation back on target," said Sean Callow, senior FX strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. He added that most central bankers like to be compared to Volcker, and the closer Powell gets to it, the more sustainable the yield appeal of the US dollar will be. "It comes as no surprise that dollar hit a fresh record high on both safe-haven flows from global economic weakness and as a resilient U.S. economy paves the way for the Fed to remain aggressive," said Edward Moya, chief market analyst at Oanda. "King dollar has awoken from a nap and that could spell a lot more pain for the European currencies," he added.       Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321033

The Canadian dollar has edged higher today. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3173, up 0.17%. BoC expected to remain aggressive The Bank of Canada meets later today and policy makers are expected to keep their foot on the pedal and deliver a sizeable hike of 0.75%. This follows the surprise super-size increase of 1.00% in July, which brought the benchmark rate to 2.50%. The BoC considers its neutral rate around 2.50%, which means that rates are headed to restriction territory in a bid to curb red-hot inflation. There was some good news as July CPI dropped to 7.6%, down from 8.1% in June, but this has not changed the BoC’s policy. In July, Governor Macklem responded to the drop in CPI by saying the Bank was committed to acting forcefully against inflation in order to avoid a sharper economic downturn. There had been some expectations that the BoC might implement another 1.00% increase at today’s meeting, but those expectations were dampened by last week’s disappointing GDP release for Q2. The economy grew by 3.3%, well short of the consensus of 4.4%, which means that the likely outcome of today’s meeting is a 0.75% hike. At the July meeting, Macklem said that the BoC was committed to front-loading rate increases now in order to avoid even higher rates down the road. Assuming Macklem’s stance hasn’t changed, this means that the BoC will shift into low gear in October, with a small rate hike of 0.25% or possibly no increase at all. If the next inflation report shows another drop, the BoC will be able to breathe easier and ease up on its rate-tightening cycle. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.3232, followed by 1.3338 There is support at 1.3102 and 1.2996 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canadian dollar steady ahead of BoC meeting - MarketPulseMarketPulse

EURUSD attempts to break out The euro recoups losses as traders expect a 50bp interest rate increase by the ECB. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart following a brief consolidation shows that the mood remains cautious at best. A failure to hold onto 0.9900 was a reminder of a strong bearish bias. However, a break above the first resistance at 0.9980 is an encouraging sign. The single currency will need a solid catalyst to propel it above the supply zone at 1.0090 and to make a recovery sustainable. Otherwise, the fresh support at 0.9870 could be at risk. USDJPY in limited pullback The Japanese yen recoups some losses as the Q2 GDP growth beats expectations. The dollar’s rally gained momentum after it lifted July’s high at 139.40. 145.00 is a hurdle and may see some profit-taking after the RSI soared into overbought territory. Past that, the pair could continue towards its 24-year high at 147.50. As sentiment remains extremely bullish, a pullback would be seen as an opportunity to stake in with 142.70 as the closest support. Further down, the psychological level of 140.00 would be the bulls’ stronghold. USDCAD hits resistance The Canadian dollar found support after the BoC raised interest rates by 75 bps as expected. The pair has been hovering under July’s high at 1.3220. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart and a series of higher lows indicate that the buying pressure has been building up. A breakout would remove the lid and attract momentum buyers. Then 1.3400 near its two-year high would be the next target. The price action is testing 1.3060, a key demand zone from the latest accumulation. Its breach could force the bulls to bail out.

Red line- parabolic shape Black lines- Fibonacci retraceents Blue line- bearish RSI divergence The Dollar index is making new higher highs every week. Bulls remain in full control of the trend and technically there is no sign of a reversal. There are signs by the RSI that the bullish momentum is weakening and the candlestick pattern is taking a parabolic shape. Is this the time to be short or open new short positions? We are not clairvoyant. However it is wise for bulls to be cautious. More than a year ago and more specifically in March and April of 2021 when the Dollar index was trading around around the 90 level, we warned bears that the similarities to 2017 and the upward reversal that followed the bottom around 90, were very possible to be repeated to another rally towards at least 103. Now it is time for us to warn Dollar bulls. We do no try to call a top. Bulls should protect their gains and try to form strategies for a coming reversal. Already the weekly candlestick is showing topping signs although it is still too early. In the scenario that the top is already in, a minimum pull back towards 103-102 is expected. Such a pull back should not be ignored. I expect the up trend in the Dollar index to show signs of a reversal over the coming weeks. Technically such a pull back is justified. Parabolic rises tend to have violent corrections. So traders need to be on their toes.   Relevance up to 11:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291961

Global equity markets rebounded after dollar and US Treasury yields pared losses on Wednesday. It seems that risk appetite recovered on the eve of the ECB meeting on monetary policy as many expect the central bank to raise the key interest rate by 0.75%. Investors also paid attention to published economic statistics, such as the Q2 GDP of the Euro area, which grew by 0.8% instead of 0.6%. Its previous data was also revised upwards to 0.5%. In annual terms, the indicator added up to 4.1%, but is significantly lower than the previous figure of 5.4%. Other data showed that industrial production in Germany returned to negative in July, as evidenced by industrial output figures. These data, as well as the decision of the ECB to consider emergency measures to curb electricity price surges, pushed the local stock market and euro up. However, dollar's fall was not really caused by them as it is more likely prompted by the warning made by Fed member Lael Brainard about the risk of too-high interest rates. If the Fed withstands pressure and continues to follow the current cycle of raising rates, a new wave of sell-offs will be seen stock markets, while demand for dollar will grow. Talking about the upcoming ECB meeting, it is likely that the central bank will increase rates by 0.75% to curb inflation. This will push EUR/USD up to 1.1000 and support other currencies including the British pound. But if Jerome Powell talks about continued aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve, the US stock market will collapse, while Treasury yields and dollar will grow. This will limit the rally of euro, preventing it to break through 1.1000. Forecasts for today: EUR/USD The pair is consolidating below 1.0010. It could rise to 1.0080 if the ECB raises the rate by 0.75% and makes it clear that they will continue to act aggressively in the future. USD/CAD The pair is consolidating above 1.3100. Continued growth in crude oil prices, as well as a tough policy of the Bank of Canada, may lead to a fall to 1.3015.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321136

There is nothing in Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments to suggest an imminent moderation in the pace of rate hikes. The need to 'act now' to get a grip on inflation in an environment where the economy is experiencing decent growth, strong job creation, and a likely rise in core inflation next week points to a third 75bp hike on 21 September Jerome Powell's comments clearly support a third consecutive 75bp interest rate hike Another 75bp in an environment of strong growth and rising core price pressures Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments to the Cato institute’s conference today on monetary policy are clearly supportive of a third consecutive 75bp interest rate hike on 21 September. There is no hint that he supports moderation, arguing that “we need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing and we have to keep at it until the job is done”. There is also the usual mention of inflation expectations and the need to anchor them in order to ensure inflation doesn’t become ingrained. The latest data certainly backs the case for 75bp with business surveys looking robust, the labour market continuing to create jobs in significant numbers, and next week’s inflation numbers set to show core CPI accelerating to 6.1% from 5.9%. Moreover, the third quarter is shaping up to be quite a strong one, fully reversing the declines seen in GDP in the first half of the year. Inventories and net trade are swinging back and set to make decent positive contributions to headline growth. Meanwhile, consumer spending is being boosted by the lift in spending power from lower gasoline prices. High-frequency data over the Labor Day holiday show restaurant dining at record levels, while air passenger travel over the past weekend exceeded that of 2019 for the first time, so 3% growth looks to be on the cards. High-frequency data point to strong 3Q consumer spending Source: Macrobond, ING   Nonetheless, the deteriorating global outlook and weakening domestic housing market combined with the cumulative impact of policy tightening and the strong dollar means we think the Fed will moderate its hiking to 50bp in November and 25bp in December. Weaker wage pressure and more limited month-on-month increases in CPI thanks to lower import and other input costs would certainly help this argument. Rate cut chances remain high for 2023 Chair Powell has also reiterated the view that the market shouldn’t get too excited about pricing rate cuts next year, saying “history cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy”. However, as the chart below shows, over the past 50 years, there is typically only a six-month gap between the last rate hike in a cycle and the first rate cut – not exactly a long gap. It seems to us to be more of an effort to nudge the longer end of the Treasury yield curve higher to ensure financial conditions remain tight. Fed funds rate: timeframe between last rate hike and first rate cut Source: Macrobond, ING   With recessionary forces intensifying, we expect inflation to fall relatively swiftly next year thanks to lower gasoline prices feeding through more broadly, weaker wage pressures and declining input costs combined with falling house prices depressing the rental components of CPI. We are currently pencilling in a rate cut in June with further easing through the second half of 2023. Read this article on THINK TagsUS Interest rates Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary:  Sentiment had gotten too bearish and equities are now pushing potentially forcing short positions to be covered. The recent sessions seem to driven by technical flows as there has been little new information on the macroeconomy. It seems that the market is positioning itself for a positive surprise in the US August inflation report on Tuesday. The earnings calendar is quite light next week with the key earnings focus being Adobe that is a bellwether in the US technology sector. The software maker is expected to post strong results but a stronger USD and weaker advertising market may cloud the outlook for Adobe. Equities continue to rebound ahead of important CPI print As we indicated yesterday in our equity note without having anything statistical significant to show, the odds were leaning in favour of a rebound in equities as sentiment was historically bad and usually followed by gains. S&P 500 futures closed above the 4,000 level yesterday and are pushing today above the 50-day moving average trading around the 4,039 level. The next big resistance level to watch is the 4,072 level which was the highest exhaustion point in the recent cycle. The past couple of sessions’ price action seems to be driven by technical flows on top of a weaker USD, and maybe the moves are a sign of the equity market positioning itself for a better than expected US August inflation report on Tuesday which is really the key event that will shape expectations in equities in the weeks to come. Can Adobe rise above the dark clouds? The earnings calendar is light these weeks as the market is waiting for Q3 earnings releases to roll in a month from now. Next week earnings calendar of important earnings is listed below with our focus on Adobe. The software maker has surprised negatively in the past four earnings releases due weaker than estimated outlook causing its share price to tumble 44% from its highs. In the past couple of months the share price has stabilised as expectations are no longer deteriorating. Analysts expect Adobe to report revenue growth of 12.6% y/y and expanding operating margin as recent cost cutting is beginning to improve profitability. Adobe is part of the high quality pocket in the equity market with a high market share and double digit organic growth rates expected over the coming years. Key risks to consider for Adobe are the strong USD, corporate spending slowdown on digitalization, and generally weakness in the global advertising industry. Monday: Oracle Tuesday: DiDi Global Wednesday: Inditex Thursday: Polestar Automotive, Adobe   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/equity-rebound-us-cpi-report-and-adobe-earnings-09092022

The Canadian dollar usually is calm prior to the North American session, but USD/CAD has posted steady gains in the Asian and European sessions. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2993, down 0.73% on the day. Canada’s job market expected to rebound Canada releases the August employment report later today, with a market consensus of 15.0 thousand. The economy has shed jobs over the past two months, as the labour market appears to be losing momentum. This could affect future rate policy, as a weaker labour market may force the BoC to ease up on rate hikes earlier than it would like. The BoC delivered a 0.75% hike this week, following the super-size 1.00% increase in July. This brings the benchmark rate to 3.25%, the highest rate among the major central banks. Governor Macklem has said that the BoC is committed to front-loading rate increases now in order to avoid even higher rates down the road, which means that the Bank can relax in October, with a 0.25% hike or possibly no move at all. Inflation in July surprised by dropping to 7.6%, down from 8.1% in June. It’s too early to determine if inflation has peaked based on one release, but another decline would signal that tighter policy is bringing down inflation, which would allow the Bank to ease up on rate hikes. The BoC considers its neutral rate around 2.50%, and with the benchmark rate currently at 3.25%, the Bank’s policy is currently restrictive. This should dampen growth as well as inflation. Canada’s economy grew by 3.3% in Q2, below the estimate of 4.4%, but still a positive signal that the BoC could succeed in its delicate task of guiding the slowing economy to a soft landing. . USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.3102 and 1.3232 USD/CAD is testing support at 1.2996, followed by support at 1.2866 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said dollar has more room to grow given a number of fundamentals behind it. He expressed skepticism over the effectiveness of any intervention to turn the tide for yen. In a statement, Summers stressed that the US has a huge advantage in not being dependent on "outrageously expensive foreign energy." He noted that Washington has taken a stronger macroeconomic response to the pandemic, and that the Federal Reserve is now tightening monetary policy faster than its counterparts. So far, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up about 11% year-to-date, hitting a record high this week. Dollar reached its highest level against euro since 2002 on Tuesday - 0.9864, while it reached the highest level since 1998 against yen on Wednesday - 144.99. Yen has depreciated faster than euro, causing a more-than-19% fall against dollar this year. This prompted increased warnings from Japanese officials, with Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to discuss latest concerns on Friday. Japanese officials are not ruling out options as market participants discuss the chances of intervention to buy yen and sell dollars. Japan hasn't done this since 1998, when it teamed up with the US - while Summers was deputy treasury secretary - to help stem the yen's fall. For its part, the US Treasury Department insisted on its unwillingness to support any potential intervention in the forex market to stop the depreciation of yen. Summers stressed that the more fundamental issue for yen is the interest rate adjustments in Japan, both short-term and long-term. The Bank of Japan maintained a negative short-term interest rate, as well as a 0.25% yield cap on 10-year bonds.  Go to dashboard       Relevance up to 14:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321348

Tomorrow is likely to be one of the most important days for the markets this week, because we get some crucial data ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. To make matters more interesting, the Fed is already in its blackout period. Meaning officials are likely to not respond to the data, and provide some context on how it could affect the interest rate decision. The market is pricing in a 75bps hike at the next meeting, based on expectations that inflation will remain high. But this opens the question of what could happen with the data that might change those expectations? Can the Fed be dissuaded from a "triple hike"?  What's driving the moves The Fed is looking to restore what it calls "credibility", in order to "anchor" inflation expectations. This is because the economic theory that the Fed is following argues that prices fluctuate primarily based on whether market makers think prices will go up. It's the job of monetary policy, therefore, to "anchor" those expectations at a certain level. How? By ensuring that market makers believe that the Fed will do what it takes to get inflation back to that level. That belief is called the "credibility" of the bank. Which is why there is such a strong push by the Fed at the moment to communicate that interest rates are going to keep rising. But the purpose is to get inflation to go down. So, if inflation has peaked, then it could be understood that inflation expectations are starting to get "anchored" and the Fed has retained its "credibility". Therefore, further aggressive hikes might not be needed. Since bond values are pricing in where the rates will be in a few months, when the Fed will start slowing the pace is the key to markets. If inflation comes down, it might signal that interest rates won't rise as fast, which could continue to weaken the dollar. What's in the data The headline number is what's going to get most of the media coverage, since that's what affects consumers most directly. Annualized August CPI Change is expected to slow down to 8.1% compared to 8.5% prior. That would be the second consecutive months of declines, and might start providing a more convincing case that inflation has peaked. Read next: Waiting For Important News From Overseas. Forecasts For US Indices| FXMAG.COM But the Fed cares more about the core inflation rate, which doesn't consider the variation in the cost of food and fuel. We have to remember that food prices have continued to rise, but fuel prices have been declining since June. WTI Crude, the benchmark for US fuel prices, fell below $90/bbl last month, continuing a lower trend due to slowing demand. Potential Fed reaction Core August annualized CPI is forecast to accelerate to 6.1% from 5.9% prior. This would bring it back up to a rate not seen since May, and be more than three times the Fed's target. With crude prices going down, a rise in core rate could imply a more systemic price problem. That would likely make the Fed even more eager to restore "credibility" by hiking rates. If headline inflation falls, but core inflation increases, the Fed is likely to stick to its hiking path. But if core inflation were to unexpectedly come in below 5.9%, it would imply that the trend remains downwards since April, and could lead to a reevaluation of how many hikes we can expect by the end of the year.

The current chart of the DXY index shows the completion of the global corrective trend, which took the form of a triple zigzag consisting of five main cycle waves w-x-y-x-z. Thus, the market is currently at the stage of reversal, that is, if this hypothesis is confirmed, the formation of the initial part of a new bearish trend may begin.  It is assumed that the bears are starting to build the first impulse sub-wave of the potential standard zigzag Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ. The end of the impulse Ⓐ is possible just below the minimum of 104.63, which is marked by a minute fourth correction. An approximate scheme of possible future movement is shown on the chart.  Let's look at another option in which the formation of a cycle triple zigzag is not yet fully completed. Most likely, the bearish cycle wave x was completed not so long ago, which took the form of a standard zigzag Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ of the primary degree. After that, an upward impulse price movement began in the initial part of the wave z. The wave z may take the form of a zigzag Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ, where the first impulse and correction are already completed. The entire z wave may complete its pattern near 114.41. At that level, it will be at the 50% Fibonacci extension of wave y.

Blue line- bearish RSI divergence Black lines- Fibonacci retracements The Dollar index has started the week under selling pressures, exactly as it ended last week.Price is turning lower below last week's lows. As we mentioned several times before, a pull back is justified as the RSI has warned traders that the upward momentum is weakening. The RSI has provided bearish divergence signals warning of a coming pull back. Price is vulnerable to a move at least towards 105.80 from 108.16 it currently is. A pull back towards that level is justified and is our minimum target. It is too early to call a top or a major top. The chances, that the rise from 89.18 is over, have increased and bulls should be very cautious.         Relevance up to 14:00 2022-09-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292394

Global indices made a solid start to the week. The EuroStoxx 600 closed yesterday 1.76% higher on news that the Ukrainians are doing well pushing back the Russians in territories they launched a counteroffensive attack. The S&P500 and Nasdaq advanced more than 1%, despite chatter of rail strike in the US. Hope of softer US inflation is what keeps the bulls running. US inflation data US inflation data is due today, and the CPI is seen easing toward 8.1% in August versus 8.5% printed a month earlier, and 9.1% peak printed the month before. A second month of soft inflation read has the power to soften the Fed hawks and increase the bets of softer rate hikes beyond September, whereas a figure above expectations, or worse, a figure above last month’s read could snap the latest rally and send the stocks tumbling. We are tilted toward a softer read than not. Hope of a soft inflation data is also what’s pulling the US dollar lower across the board. The dollar index tipped a toe below the 108 mark yesterday, while the EURUSD made an attempt above its 50-DMA, as news that Ukrainian troops are being successful in their counteroffensive attack, and chatter that voices are rising in Russia against the regime’s strategy in Ukraine, brought forward the possibility of Russia being defeated in Ukraine. Cable flirts with the 1.17 level, the dollar-swissy retreated to 0.95 and the USDCAD slipped below 1.30. The American crude, gold and silver are better The American crude rallied more than 2% yesterday on improved market sentiment, and flirted with the $90 offers, without however being able to clear them. Gold and silver are also better bid into the inflation data, thanks to a broadly softer US dollar. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:25 Equities extend gains 0:58 … despite discouraging news for US retailers 2:25 US inflation is all that matters 6:20 USD soft pre-CPI, EUR gains on Ukraine news 7:15 Pound firmer but… 8:40 Crude oil flirts with $90 9:00 Gold & Silver benefit from softer USD Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #USD #inflation #EUR #CAD #CHF #GBP #Gold #XAU #Silver #XAG #crude #oil #EuroStoxx #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH        

Gasoline prices pulled headline inflation down to 8.3% YoY, but it was a smaller decline than hoped as housing, medical costs and vehicle prices lifted the core rate to 6.3% from 5.9%. This firmly backs a 75bp rate hike next week and the market now anticipate a terminal rate in the 4-4.25% range, but there are still strong reasons for inflation to fall sharply Medical costs helped to lift core inflation in the US 8.3% Annual US inflation   Housing, medical and autos keep core pressures elevated US consumer price inflation has certainly surprised on the upside and heighted the chances of the Federal Reserve hiking to an even higher terminal interest rate. The market (and ourselves to be fair) were looking for headline inflation to slow from 8.5% to 8%, but for lagged effects of house price gains to push up rents and move core inflation to 6.1% from 5.9%. Instead we got readings of 8.3% and 6.3% respectively. Housing costs were indeed strong with the rental components rising 0.7%, but utility payments also increased 1.5% while new car prices rose 0.8% and used car prices fell “only” 0.1%. There had been some talk that new models and promotions would have generated a lower figure while second-hand auction prices had pointed to a larger decline. Other goods and services were also firmer than anticipated, rising 0.7% month-on-month with medical care services rising 0.8%. The 4.6% month-on-month decline in airline fares and the 10.6% drop in gasoline prices were the main area of softness, reflecting broader energy cost declines. US consumer price inflation with ING's forecasts Source: Macrobond, ING The Fed has more work to do Clearly this outcome throws out any talk of the Fed potentially surprising with a 50bp hike next week, but it isn't calamitous enough to see a big push for 100bp – at the time of writing the market is pricing 80bp, up from around 72bp before the report’s publication. We are sticking with the 75bp call. It also means the Fed won't be particularly explicit in any guidance following next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Nonetheless, the breadth and stickiness of inflation pressures has seen the market shift its expectations for the terminal rate up to 4-4.25% from the 3.75-4% range before the release. We are going to stick with the 3.75-4% call for December – a 50bp hike in November and a final 25bp move in December. But price pressures will subside On the activity side the external environment of a European energy crisis, a China slowdown and a strong dollar combined with ongoing interest rate hikes domestically and a slower housing market raise concerns about the growth story heading into year end. On the inflation side we feel that the weaker activity backdrop will dampen corporate pricing power and lead to a squeeze on profit margins. Indeed, the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) survey released this morning suggests, in the small business sector, that inflation pressures are already softening with a clear drop in the proportion of companies looking to raise their prices further. NFIB prices and price plans point to lower CPI readings ahead Source: Macrobond, ING   Furthermore, the drop in both market and consumer inflation expectations is clearly a positive development as it suggests confidence in the Federal Reserve’s ability to get inflation back to target next year and helps to diminish fears of a 1970s style wage-price spiral. Officials repeatedly state that expectations remain anchored and there are clear signs of success here. Inflation expectations are normalising Source: Macrobond, ING Still targeting 2% CPI by end-2023 With the outlook for the housing market deteriorating, we expect to see home prices move lower over the next 6-12 months, which will help to depress the rental components (that make up a third of the inflation basket). Meanwhile, supply chain improvements and lower used car prices will also be key factors that contribute to slower inflation next year. Add in weaker commodity prices, squeezed margins and the effects of dollar strength and we still see a strong chance that inflation hits 2% by the end of 2023. Read this article on THINK

USD/CAD retreats from one-week high amid weaker USD, downside seems cushioned USD/CAD surrenders modest intraday gains to the 1.3200 neighbourhood, or a one-week high. A positive risk tone weighs on the safe-haven greenback and exerts some downward pressure. Aggressive Fed rate hike bets and recession fears warrant caution for aggressive bearish traders. The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on its intraday positive move to a one-week high set earlier this Wednesday and retreats to the 1.3160-1.3165 area during the first half of the European session. The pullback is sponsored by a modest US dollar weakness, though the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying. Crude Oil Price And CAD A recovery in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - seems to weigh on the safe-haven greenback. Apart from this, an intraday bounce in crude oil prices underpins the commodity-linked loonie and exerts some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. That said, growing acceptance that the Fed will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path to tame inflation should continue to act as a tailwind for the buck. Investors started pricing in the possibility of a full 1% rate hike at the next FOMC policy meeting on September 20-21 following the release of stronger US consumer inflation data on Tuesday. This is reinforced by a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on rate-sensitive two-year US government bonds climbs to an almost 15-year high and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note holds steady just below the YTD peak touched in June. Global Recession The prospects for faster rate hikes by the US central bank, along with economic headwinds stemming from fresh COVID-19 curbs in China, have raised concerns about a global recession. Concerns that a deeper economic downturn will dent fuel demand should keep a lid on oil prices, which, in turn, should weigh on the Canadian dollar and offer support to the USD/CAD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the previous day's solid recovery of over 200 pips from the vicinity of mid-1.2900s has run out of steam. Market participants now look forward to the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will influence the USD. Apart from this, traders will also take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities around the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, the bias still seems tilted firmly in favour of bullish traders and any intraday downfall is more likely to remain limited. Bulls, however, might wait for sustained strength beyond the 1.3200 mark before positioning for further gains. Technical levels to watch

Summary:  The core US August inflation data shocked the market as prices reportedly rose at twice the expected rate in August at the core. This triggered a massive spike back higher in the US dollar, with the market caught on the wrong foot and suddenly forced to entertain the risk of a 100 basis point rate hike from the Fed at next week’s FOMC meeting. Overnight, the Bank of Japan and Japanese Ministry of Finance upped the ante on intervention risks, tempering the rise in USDJPY. FX Trading focus: Core CPI shocker from the US resets the USD. Beware the BoJ. The headline US CPI data came in slightly above expectations, with a year-on-year reading of 8.3% vs. 8.1% expected and a month-on-month reading of +0.1% vs. -0.1% expected, the latter a solid surprise given sharp drops of late in gasoline prices. But the real shock was the core Ex Food and Energy inflation reading of +0.6% month-on-month, twice what was expected. This triggered an enormous slide in risk sentiment as the market rushed to price the risk that the FOMC might hike as much as 100 basis points next week. As of this morning, nearly 85 basis points of tightening are priced in the market for next meeting. The Fed doesn’t like to surprise the market, so if that builds a bit higher rather than receding back closer to 75 basis points on its own accord by early next week, the Fed will need to send out the WSJ’s Timiraos to pen an article guiding for 75 basis points if it wants to avoid shocking the market. There are a number of good reasons that the market was looking for a softer print yesterday, and this one data point is not enough to suggest that inflation will continue at the run-rate suggested by the August CPI data point, but as is readily evident, it had changed the odds on the size of next week’s hike, the guidance in the wake of that hike in terms of the monetary policy statement and the Fed’s own macro-economic projections. To get follow-on USD strength here, the next data points of note are tomorrow’s US August Retail Sales and weekly US initial jobless claims. I lean for the risk of a stronger than expected Retail Sales data point due to the psychological boost of gasoline prices having dropped so precipitously from their June highs and as millions of US consumers saw their student debt loads drastically reduced by the Inflation Reduction Act that was passed mid-month. As for the weekly claims, these seem to be in a new declining trend after rising into the early summer period from record lows (adjusted for population) earlier in the year. The Bank of Japan and Japanese Ministry of Finance, as I discuss below, may make life difficult for FX traders. Chart: AUDUSDInteresting to note that the USD reaction was most violent against some of the traditional risk-correlated currencies like AUD and NZD, with AUDUSD suddenly poking down close to cycle lows this morning, or at least below the lowest daily close of the cycle at one point this morning. To get new lows, we’d likely need to see the weak risk sentiment persisting her and a test of the June market lows, together perhaps with the Fed delivering a 100 basis point hike next week and US 10-year yields moving above the 3.50% cycle high from June (this morning trading at3.43%.) The recent price action cemented the 0.6900+ area pivot high as the key tactical resistance of note. Australia reports employment data tonight. The Bank of Japan carried out a “rate check” in the FX market, which is widely seen as a precursor for actual market intervention. This tamed the USDJPY move higher from sub-142.00 levels to nearly 145, as the gains were pared back below even 143.00 this morning, with the JPY also firmer broadly. Finance Minister Suzuki said nothing could be ruled out in response to the weakening JPY and that if the current trend persisted, stepping into markets is an option. But as past experience has shown, intervention often only creates temporary volatility if the underlying issue is not addressed - in this case, the Bank of Japan's insistence on maintaining very low rates and capping yields out to 10 years. If yields continue to rise globally, Japanese officialdom will have an enormous and likely unwinnable fight on its hands if the Bank of Japan fails to change its policy. In the meantime, history shows that determined intervention can make for very choppy markets, even for other USD pairs as USDJPY volatility spikes back and forth. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The USD has leaped back higher – watching for the degree to which the price holds and follows through if the 100 basis point FOMC move scenario next week solidifies amidst a supporting cast of data. Note the marked NOK weakening, a theme discussed yesterday. And note the CHF Strength – an interesting test for the EURCHF pair next week over the SNB meeting, given EU plans to cap energy prices as the pair trades near multi-year lows. Will there be a bit more caution from the SNB than before? Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.We noted many pivotal USD pairs yesterday: well the USD provided a pivot and then some yesterday – now about seeing whether the action remains choppy a la USDJPY or reasonably smooth new USD trend can develop. Note USDNOK trading up against a big resistance line, NZDUSD toying with 0.6000 this morning and AUDUSD not far from the cycle lows, while USDCAD has poked near the cycle top. Also, very interesting signs of possible exhaustion of weak GBP sentiment as the currency is rolling higher against a growing cast of the smaller G10 currencies (GBPNOK, GBPNZD, GBPAUD on the cusp, etc.) Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1230 - US Aug. PPI  1230 - Canada Jul. Manufacturing Sales 1430 - ECB's Villeroy to speak 2245 - New Zealand Q2 GDP 2350 - Japan Aug. Trade Balance 0120 - China Rate Announcement 0130 - Australia Aug. Employment Data Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-us-august-cpi-triggers-a-landslide-beware-the-boj-14092022  

DXY trims part of Tuesday’s intense advance above 110.00. Further bouts of strength could see the dollar retest yearly highs. DXY gives away some gains following the post-CPI sharp upside to the 110.00 region on Wednesday. Despite the ongoing knee-jerk in the dollar, its short-term bullish view remains unchanged while above the 7-month support line around 106.30. If sellers push harder, then a potential visit to the weekly low at 107.58 (August 26) could start emerging on the horizon just ahead of the interim 55-day SMA at 107.43. In the longer run, DXY is expected to maintain its constructive stance while above the 200-day SMA at 101.53. DXY daily chart  

The last primary wave â’¸ takes the form of an intermediate 5-wave impulse (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). Perhaps the last intermediate wave (5) is currently under development. It is assumed that it will take the form of a minor impulse 1-2-3-4-5. For its full completion, a sub-wave 5 is needed. The growth in this wave may continue to 7.097. At that level, sub-wave (5) will be at 100% of wave (3). An alternative scenario shows that the construction of the entire cycle correction IV has already been fully completed. It took the form not of a simple zigzag, but of a double zigzag consisting of primary sub-waves â“Œ-Ⓧ-â“Ž. If this assumption is correct, then the market may begin to move in a downward direction, forming the final cycle wave V. Read next: Great Britain’s CPI Lower Than The Expected, Eyes On US PPI| FXMAG.COM Most likely, the wave V will have the form of a primary impulse, as shown in the chart. And it will finish its pattern near 6.572. At that level, sub-wave V will be at 50% of impulse III.

The US currency was swirled by a whirlwind of continuous movement, not giving it a break for almost a minute. The dollar has to be constantly in good shape to act ahead of the euro and other currencies. Against this background, experts fear the depletion of "dollar forces" and the subsidence of the USD in the long term. According to market players and analysts, the rally that led the greenback to the peak of the price since 1985 will continue. However, this causes great inconvenience to other currencies, up to their collapse. As a result, the means of payment of other countries are plunging against the USD or require a rapid increase in rates in order not to be at the bottom. The dollar's strong growth against a basket of currencies (by 15% in 2022) dealt a crushing blow to financial markets. The main victims were the euro and the yen, which collapsed to lows over the past 20 years. The pound had the hardest time, which fell to its lowest in 40 years. The catalyst for the widespread collapse of the market was the "hot" data on inflation in the United States. According to a report published on Wednesday, September 14, US inflation increased markedly in August, and decreased less year-on-year than the market expected. In the last month of summer, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1%. At the same time, experts expected the indicator to fall by 0.1% amid a steady decline in gasoline prices. However, this factor did not work due to a sharp increase in consumer spending in the United States. According to current data, the basic consumer price index in the country increased by 0.6%, which is twice as much as expected. At the same time, the annual core inflation rate soared from July's 5.9% to 6.3%. According to analysts, this is the highest value recorded after a 40-year high reached in March. In the current situation, gasoline prices in the United States fell by 10.6% on a monthly basis, but were partially neutralized by rising prices for LNG and electricity. However, in the future, the effect of cheaper energy came to naught due to the rapid growth of housing and medical care prices (they increased by 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively). Against this background, analysts' forecasts for a further rise in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve by 1 percentage point (pp) have intensified. Many experts began to lay such an increase at the Fed's next meeting, which is scheduled for September 20-21. Some of them expect an increase in a smaller volume (only by 0.75 percentage points). According to analysts, the current situation provides significant support to the dollar and at the same time is a challenge to global central banks. Many world central banks were faced with a choice: to observe the weakening of national currencies or slow down this process by selling USD and raising their rates. The current macro data from the United States turned out to be negative for the markets, experts summarize. At the same time, the Fed management recognizes that inflationary pressure in the country remains high and hinders economic growth. However, the central bank turned out to be a hostage to the situation, since in order for inflation to return to the 2% target, it is necessary to continue raising rates, and this should be done in an accelerated mode. Against this background, the US currency has steadily risen in price against the European one. The EUR/USD pair was trading at 0.9965 on Thursday morning, September 15. Since August inflation in the United States turned out to be higher than forecasts, market participants expect the Fed to raise the rate further (by 75 bps) at the upcoming meeting. Many experts are sure that now there are almost no factors that can prevent the dollar's growth. According to Rabobank's currency strategists, while US rates are rising, the greenback will strengthen. Analysts believe that this strengthening will continue until the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. The "tailwind" for the USD is the reliability and relative stability of the American economy. However, the prolonged strengthening of the greenback creates problems for US trading partners, as the growth in the value of imports denominated in dollars increases. This hinders the curbing of rampant inflation in a number of countries, experts emphasize. Asian countries, especially commodity importers, suffer the most in this situation. Against this background, the Japanese yen turned out to be the biggest outsider, which rapidly and sharply plunged. According to experts, the dollar rally will end sooner or later, but the timing of its completion is difficult to predict. According to economists, in the long term, a rate hike in the United States, which should slow down the economy, will play against the greenback. However, the Fed will have to take measures to slow down the national economy in order to reduce the current level of inflation. The result is a vicious circle, from which it is difficult for the dollar to get out. Currently, many market players are betting on USD growth, but analysts urge caution in this matter. In the short term, such tactics provide significant support to the greenback. At the moment, the market is in the process of reassessing expectations about the future course of the Fed's monetary strategy, especially regarding rates. Current economic reports from the United States increase the likelihood of a third consecutive Fed rate hike by 75 bps at the next meeting scheduled for September 20-21. Against this background, the markets allow an increase in the key rate by 100 bps at once, experts summarize.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-20 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321776

Technical analysis: USD/CAD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3160 but I see potential for the upside continuation. Trading recommendation: Due to the symmetrical triangle pattern in creation and strong growth in the background, I see potential for the upside continuation. Watch for the buying opportunities on the intraday dips with the upside objective at the price of 1.3300. MACD oscillator is showing upside reading, which is good sign that buyers are in control. Support is set at the price of 1.3138     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292916

The US Dollar Index holds in positive territory but stays below 110.00. Strategists at OCBC Bank highlight the key technical levels to watch. USD could still stay bid on dips “The USD could still stay bid on dips and take cues from upcoming US data – retail sales, industrial production today, Uni of Michigan sentiment on Fri, alongside the roll-out of regional Fed manufacturing surveys for September. In the interim, the debate between a 75 bps and 100 bps hike is likely to retain a bid tone on the USD overall.” “Resistance at 110.30 before 110.78 (previous high). Support at 109.10 (21 DMA), 108.45 (38.2% Fibo retracement of Aug low to Sep high) and 107.70 levels (50 DMA, 50% Fibo).” See – US Retail Sales Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, can the US consumer remain strong?

The dollar continues to benefit from safe-haven flows on the last trading day of the week. Economists at MUFG Bank expect the greenback to stay on a solid foot. Mixed data, further curve inversion and asset price declines “Add to that the flow of data this week that indicates a slowing economy there are reasons for the Fed to stick to the current pace of tightening. Retail sales for August revealed no growth in Control Group sales while the July data was revised sharply lower. Manufacturing slowed markedly in August as well and manufacturing sentiment for New York and Philadelphia remained negative. We have not had housing data this week but the housing market is weakening sharply.” “With the Fed set to hike by possibly another 175 bps before year-end, we would expect financial conditions to remain unfavourable for assets generally and it clearly points to the US dollar being the primary beneficiary.”  “For 2s10s to break to new levels of inversion (beyond the Aug low of -58 bps) would take us to levels last seen in the early 1980’s. That would certainly likely mean a broadening of the strength of the US dollar.”

Technical analysis: USD/CAD has been trading upside as I expected and the price has reached the first upside objective at the price of 1.3280. Anyway, I see potential for further upside movement due to the strong upside momentum. Trading recommendation: Due to the strong upside pressure in the background and breakout of the key multi-year resistance at the price of 1.3220, I see potential for further big growth. Watch for the potential buying opportunities on the intraday dips with the upside objective at the price of 1.3400 MACD oscillator is showing fresh upside momentum, which is strong sign that buyers are in control. Key support is set at the price of 1.3140   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-17 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293083

Consumer inflation in the US seems to have completely deprived the market of hopes that the Fed, after an aggressive rate hike next week, will continue to raise them less vigorously. This is because the weaker-than-expected decline in inflation on a yearly basis and its rise on a monthly basis have brought to life a new wave of forecasts. FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam also said that the drop in traffic volumes around the world is a clear indication of the huge problems in the global economy. This led to a decline in the US stock market yesterday. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the same thing, remarking that an aggressive increase in interest rates would cause irreparable damage to the US economy. But the US Central Bank is too determined to reduce inflation, believing that this is an important task and as long as the state of the economy allows tough measures to be implemented, they must be applied. Next week's meeting will show whether the Fed will give up or not. So far, the forex market, in contrast to the stock market, demonstrates noticeably less volatility. Traders are obviously waiting for the outcome of the Fed meeting, so there will be no noticeable changes until it ends. In this regard, the price movement of EUR/USD will stall for a while. But the Fed's continued tight stance on monetary policy will be a major downside, and even the expected increase in the ECB interest rate will not help euro. Most likely, it will drop to a local low of 0.8225 or under. Much will depend on the economic situation in Europe and the United States. If the Fed starts to soften its stance, the pair may hit 1.0200 or higher. Forecasts for today: USDCAD The pair is trading above 1.3250. Further buying pressure will raise the quote to 1.3370. GBP/USD The pair is trading at a local low of 1.1400. A decline below 1.1410 could serve as an impetus for its further fall towards 1.1310.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-19 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321889

Summary:  The US dollar continues to drive higher together with the pricing for the Fed’s terminal policy rate reaching new highs near 4.50%. The JPY managed to hold the line and then some against a surging greenback as the market seems unwilling to challenge the Bank of Japan for now despite the higher US yields. Elsewhere, the descent in sterling is verging on scary, with GBPUSD staking out new record lows since 1985 below 1.1400 as EURGBP broke the range highs. FX Trading focus: Sterling descent getting scary after weak UK Retail Sales. USDJPY stays tame even with stronger USD and higher US treasury yields. The USD arched to new highs this morning versus a majority of G10 currencies, with USDJPY the notable pair not participating in the move as the market seems unwilling to challenge the Bank of Japan for now. One of the proximate triggers for a shift lower in risk sentiment late yesterday was the weak result and guidance from FedEx after US trading hours. As well, US short treasury yields continue to rise and provide plenty of pressure on markets. As for USDJPY, arguably longer yields are a more important coincident indicator, and US long yields have not yet broken to new cycle highs (3.50% for the US 10-year Treasury benchmark) although they are pushing hard on that level. The short end of the US yield curve, continues to rise apace even as the predictions for next week’s meeting pulled back slightly, meaning that the “terminal rate” for the cycle is getting priced higher – and has nearly hit 4.50%, more than a hundred basis points above where it was in early August. Data from the US yesterday was mixed. The headline US August Retail Sales report was slightly stronger than expected at +0.3% MoM vs. -0.1% expected, but July was revised down to -0.4% from 0.0%. The core Retail Sales data was slightly weaker than expected at +0.3% ex Autos and Gas, likewise with a negative revision (down to +0.3% for July after +0.7% was reported). Important to note that the US reports Retail Sales in nominal dollar changes, so this report suggests stagnating volumes. The latest weekly jobless claims data point yesterday was the lowest since late May, extending the recent falling trend. The UK August Retail Sales data this morning, on the other hand, was distinctly weak and set off an extension lower in sterling, as EURGBP broke above 0.8722 for the first time since early 2021 UK reports Retail Sales in volumes, not in nominal prices, and the month-on-month data developments were extremely weak, pointing to a steep real growth slowdown. Sales including petrol fell -1.6% MoM in August and -1.5% ex petrol. The August Ex Petrol volumes dip takes the data below the 2019 level in August, the first time that has happened in this calendar year. Waiting for the close of trade today for next steps as we have quarterly “witching” of massive derivatives exposures in the US today and with it, possibly erratic trading. Very interesting to see the combination of USDJPY unwillingness to move today together with USDCNH on the rise (so CNHJPY dropping), while EURUSD is also a bit stuck and backing up after trying lower in the European morning today. Some USD exhaustion creeping in at least within the G3? And if risk sentiment continues to deteriorate, will it remain always a function of the rising Fed expectations, or can it jump horses to concerns for the economic cycle? In other words, the eventual chief question may be: what happens to the USD if bond and stocks diverge in direction? Chart: GBPUSDGBPUSD declines took on extra energy this morning in the wake of the weak August UK Retail Sales data that showed a sharp contraction in volumes in August, a sign of real GDP contraction. This took EURGBP to new highs since early 2021 (pointing that out as an indication of isolate GBPS weakness), while GBPUSD drove down to record lows since the mid-1980’s. Not sure what can bring relief for sterling here save for a halt to the relentless rise in US yields and/or thawing risk sentiment after the steep plunge this week. As for next level, only round, psychological ones seem relevant as the 1985 lows near 1.0500 are impossible to compare in real effective terms after 37 years. Bulls will have to hope that sentiment shifts here and for a quick rejection of the new lows to confirm a divergent momentum scenario (stochastic indicator turning back higher after new price lows posted with indicator not at new lows). EURCHF hit new cycle lows yesterday below 0.9550, but these were rapidly rejected. Without any catalyst I could identify, this looks like possible intervention – perhaps as energy prices have calmed, meaning that the SNB wants to lean a bit the other way now? Very curious to hear the SNB next Thursday. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The stronger euro beginning to stick out, as does the JPY resilience, as the smaller currencies and sterling have traded weakest. Gold hit the skids on breaking below the big range level around 1,680. CNH is on the weak side, which is interesting, given the strong US dollar, but let’s watch 7.20 in USDCNH to see if there is any real fireworks potential. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.JPY has strengthened enough to have a go at flipping stronger versus NOP and NZD today. More interested in whether the CNHJPY rate flips negative next week. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1200 – Poland Aug. Core CPI 1215 – Canada Aug. Housing Starts 1400 – US Sep. Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-sterling-descent-takes-gbpusd-to-historic-low-16092022

Next week is packed with central bank meetings. The Fed is likely to match the European Central Bank in hiking rates by 75bp, while the Bank of England and Norges Bank are expected to make 50bp moves In this article US: 75bp is our favoured call, however there's a chance for the Fed to go even further UK: Bank of England to stick to 50bp rate hike despite Fed and ECB doing more Sweden: Riksbank to match ECB’s 75bp hike – and there’s a risk of more Norway: Norges Bank to repeat August’s 50bp rate hike Switzerland: SNB will follow the lead of other central banks and hike rates by 75bp Eurozone: PMIs expected to remain below 50 Source: Shutterstock      US: 75bp is our favoured call, however there's a chance for the Fed to go even further All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve meeting next Wednesday. The market was favouring a 75bp hike ahead of the August CPI report, but the much higher-than-expected inflation print has seen the market price in a 20% chance that the Fed will go over and above that by opting for 100bp. A 75bp hike is still our favoured call, but we acknowledge the risk that with inflation proving to be stickier than we had suspected, the subsequent meetings in November and December could see more aggressive action from the Fed than we are currently pencilling in. While the geopolitical backdrop, the China slowdown story, the potential for energy rationing in Europe, the strong dollar and fragile-looking domestic equity and housing markets argue for a more moderate path of tightening in the coming months, if inflation momentum doesn’t slow the bank will hike by a further 75bp in November and possibly 50bp in December. The message from the Fed next week is likely to emphasise data dependency, but its updated economic forecasts are likely to show the end-2022 Fed funds rate at 4.125% rather than 3.4% (July forecast) and we suspect it will be kept at that for 2023, before dropping back to a long-term average rate of 2.5%. UK: Bank of England to stick to 50bp rate hike despite Fed and ECB doing more We narrowly favour a 50bp hike on Thursday, taking the Bank Rate to 2.25%, although 75bp is clearly on the table and we would expect at least a couple of policymakers to vote for it. The announcement of an energy price cap from the government will drastically lower near-term CPI, reducing concerns about consumer inflation expectations becoming de-anchored and reducing the urgency to act even more aggressively. However, the hawks will be worried about the recent independent sterling weakness, and will also argue that the government’s support package could increase medium-term inflation given it reduces the risk of recession. That means it’s a close meeting to call, but if we’re right and the committee does move more cautiously than the Fed and ECB next week, then we expect another 50bp move in November and at least another 25bp in December. That would take Bank Rate to the 3% area. Read our full Bank of England Preview here. Sweden: Riksbank to match ECB’s 75bp hike – and there’s a risk of more With only two meetings left this year, and facing higher-than-expected inflation and a tight jobs market, we expect the Riksbank to hike rates by at least 75bp on Tuesday. We expect a repeat move in November. Norway: Norges Bank to repeat August’s 50bp rate hike Norway’s central bank stepped up the pace of rate hikes in August, and core inflation has continued to push higher than Norges Bank’s most recent forecasts in June. The message from the August meeting was that the central bank is keen to continue front-loading tightening, and we expect another 50bp hike next week. That would take the deposit rate to 2.25%, and we’d expect another 50bp move in November. Switzerland: SNB will follow the lead of other central banks and hike rates by 75bp The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets next week and is ready to raise its key interest rate for a second time, after the 50bp increase in June. Inflation in Switzerland stood at 3.5% in August, still above the SNB's target of 0-2%, although well below the inflation rate in neighbouring countries. The fact that the Swiss franc is relatively strong against the euro is no longer a problem for the SNB, as it reduces imported inflation. The SNB focuses much more on the real exchange rate, which takes into account the inflation differential and has remained very stable in recent months. With no fears of too much appreciation and with inflation above target, there is little reason for the SNB not to follow the lead of other central banks, especially as it only meets once every quarter, so the next meeting will be in December, while the ECB and the Fed will meet in between. We expect a 75bp rate hike next week. Eurozone: PMIs expected to remain below 50 In the eurozone, we get the first look at economic activity in September with PMIs due on Friday. After two months below 50, we expect another one to follow as manufacturing production cuts due to high energy prices and the end of the tourist season are set to impact business activity. Consumer confidence will also be released next week, where we expect confidence to remain near historical lows for the moment as the cost-of-living crisis continues. Key events in developed markets next week Source: Refinitiv, ING TagsRiksbank Norges Bank Federal Reseve Central banks Bank of England Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

US Many on Wall Street are watching the Fed’s rate hiking cycle and are getting nervous they will tip the economy into a recession.  With scorching inflation, the FOMC may consider a full-point rate hike but will likely settle on delivering its third consecutive 75 basis-point increase. At Wednesday’s policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely acknowledge downside risks to growth are here and unrelenting inflation is forcing them to maintain an aggressive pace of tightening.  Inflation risks are still tilted to the upside and will likely keep the Fed from providing any hints that a “Fed put” is coming. EU  The ECB appears to be one of the few major central banks not holding a monetary policy meeting next week but that won’t keep them out of the headlines. Policymakers are scheduled to make regular appearances including Philip Lane on Saturday which may present some weekend risk. On Friday, the flash PMIs could give an idea of how the economy is coping and whether it is heading for a recession in the fourth quarter, as some fear. UK Monday is a bank holiday in the UK as the country pays its respects to Queen Elizabeth II on the day of her funeral. After being pushed back a week due to the 10-day period of national mourning, the BoE will meet on Thursday and it has a big decision to make. Inflation is running extremely hot – although it did drop back below 10% last month – and while it has likely not yet peaked, the high should be much lower now that the new government has announced a cap on energy bills.  That may come as a relief to many but it could mean higher core inflation and interest rates further down the road. How the BoE responds to all of this without the aid of new economic projections is what will interest investors. The week draws to a close with PMIs on Friday. Russia Markets continue to monitor the situation in Ukraine amid a strong counteroffensive that saw Russia concede a lot of ground while raising the prospect of defeat and waning support for Vladimir Putin. The only economic release next week is PPI inflation on Wednesday.  South Africa The SARB is expected to hike rates by another 75 basis points to 6.25% on Thursday as inflation continues to rise. The CPI is currently well above the 3-6% target range at 7.8% and the central bank will get an update on this the day before their decision, which could play a role in just how aggressive they’ll be this month.  Turkey One central bank that almost certainly won’t be raising interest rates next week is the CBRT. Last month, it unexpectedly cut rates by another 100 basis points to 13% despite inflation running at almost 80%. That has risen further since but the central bank will not be deterred. No change is expected from the CBRT next week but clearly, another rate cut should not be ruled out. Switzerland Inflation continues to run hot which makes a large rate hike on Thursday from the SNB highly likely. Markets are pricing in at least 75 basis points, maybe even 100, taking the policy rate out of negative territory for the first time since early 2015. The central bank loves to spring a surprise though, the biggest recently perhaps being that it’s waited until a scheduled meeting to act. We’ll see how bold it’s prepared to be on Thursday.  China China is expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.65%, as the 1-year LPR (Loan Prime Rate) was just recently adjusted down from 3.7%. If the Chinese central bank unexpectedly adjusts rates to a lower level again, it may be detrimental to the yuan. The PBOC’s fixings are must-watch events now that the yuan has weakened beyond the key 7 against the dollar.   India Traders will pay close attention to the second quarter current account data.  Expectations are for the current account deficit to widen from $13.4 billion to $30.36 billion.  India has been weakening as trade balances balloon and foreign investment takes a big hit.   Australia & New Zealand Traders are awaiting the release of the minutes of the RBA meeting next Tuesday and upcoming speeches by RBA’s Kearns and Bullock. The RBA seems poised to move forward with smaller rate hike moves, but traders will look to see if the latest round of RBA speak confirms the downward shift discussed by central bank chief Lowe.  It will be a busy week in New Zealand as a steady flow of economic data is accompanied by a couple of RBNZ speeches by Governor Orr and Deputy Governor Hawkesby.  The big economic releases of the week are Wednesday’s credit card spending data and Thursday’s trade data.     Japan The FX world is closely watching everything out of Japan. Traders are waiting to see if policymakers will intervene to provide some relief for the Japanese yen. What could complicate their decision is that Japan has a holiday on Monday.   The divergence between the Fed’s tightening cycle and the Bank of Japan’s steady approach continues to support the dollar against the yen. The BOJ is widely expected to keep rates on hold even as core inflation extends above the BOJ’s 2% target.    Singapore The focus for Singapore will be the August inflation report that should show pricing pressures remain intense.  The year-over-year reading is expected to rise from 7.0% to 7.2%.  Economic Calendar Saturday, Sept. 17 Economic Data/Events Thousands pay their respects to Queen Elizabeth II at Westminster  European Central Bank chief economist Lane speaks at the Dublin Economics Workshop in Wexford, Ireland Monday, Sept. 19 Economic Data/Events World leaders attend Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral in Westminster Abbey in London UK Bank Holiday Japan Bank Holiday New Zealand performance services index RBA’s head of domestic markets Kearns delivers the keynote address at the Australian Financial Review Property Summit in Sydney ECB’s de Guindos speaks at the annual Consejos Consultivos meeting   Tuesday, Sept. 20 Economic Data/Events US housing Starts Canada CPI China loan prime rates Japan CPI Mexico international reserves Spain trade Sweden rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 75bp to 1.500% UK Parliament in session Annual UN General Assembly in New York Dockworkers at the UK’s Port of Liverpool are expected to begin a two-week strike Norges deputy central bank Governor Borsum speaks German Economy Minister Habeck speaks at the congress of municipal energy suppliers RBA releases minutes from its September policy meeting. BOC Deputy Governor Beaudry delivers a lecture on “pandemic macroeconomics” at the University of Waterloo in Ontario Wednesday, Sept. 21 Economic Data/Events FOMC Policy Decision: Fed expected to raise rates by 75bps US existing home sales Argentina unemployment, trade Australia leading index New Zealand credit-card spending South Africa CPI Big-bank CEOs testify before the US House Financial Services Committee at a hearing titled, “Holding Megabanks Accountable.” RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock speaks at a Bloomberg event in Sydney ECB’s de Guindos to speak at Insurance Summit 2022 organized by Altamar CAM in Cologne, Germany EIA crude oil inventory report Thursday, Sept. 22 Economic Data/Events US Conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims China Swift global payments Eurozone consumer confidence BOJ rate decision: No changes expected with rates and 10-year yield target Japan department store sales New Zealand trade, consumer confidence Norway rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 50bps to 2.25% South Africa rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 75bps to 6.25% Switzerland rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 75bps to 0.50% Taiwan jobless rate, rate decision, money supply Thailand trade Turkey rate decision: Expected to cut rates by 100bps to 12.00% UK BOE rate decision: Markets remain split between expectations for a half-point or a three-quarter-point hike. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen addresses the Atlantic Festival in Washington. The UN Security Council holds a meeting on Ukraine   BOE’s Tenreyro speaks at a seminar at the San Francisco Fed on “climate-change pledges, actions and outcomes.” Friday, Sept. 23 Economic Data/Events US Flash PMIs Australia prelim PMI Canada retail sales European Flash PMIs: Eurozone, Germany, France, and the UK Singapore CPI Spain GDP Taiwan industrial production Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts Norway Central Bank Governor Wolden speaks Sovereign Rating Updates Germany (S&P) Hungary (Moody’s) Sweden (Moody’s) European Union (DBRS) Finland (DBRS) This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Week Ahead - Aggressive tightening - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The BOC has taken an even more aggressive rate hike route than the Fed, giving the CAD the fastest rising rate of the majors. This didn't stop the meteoric rise in inflation that most developed countries have been seeing this year, although not as dramatic as in the US. Given the economic interconnectivity with the US, it's not surprising that CPI trends have been similar in both countries. Read next: How High Will The Bank Of England Raise Rates?| FXMAG.COM However, unlike in the US, Canada has been seeing not only a flattening but actual downturn in core CPI, the measure followed by central banks. This opens the question whether the BOC's increased frontloading of the interest rate means they can slow the pace of hikes before other central banks. Particularly as more economists worry that there is a recession on the horizon, if it's not already here. If core rates continue to fall, there would be further arguments for the BOC to not "lead" the Fed higher. The BOC meets again in late October. What to look out for Canada's inflation rate is expected to fall for the second consecutive month to 7.3% from 7.6% prior. This is expected to be supported by a -0.1% monthly rate, compared to 0.1% in July. The figures mirror the results seen in the US, but at a lower level. The drop in global crude prices has contributed to a reduction in energy costs in Canada as well. But what the BOC focuses on is the core rate, which trims off the effects of energy and food prices. And there the situation is a little more complicated, since annual core CPI is expected to rise to 6.2% from 6.1% prior. This is based on an expected acceleration in the monthly measure to 0.6% from 0.5% in July. Putting the pieces together Just like with the US' data from last week, even if the headline inflation rate goes down, the market is likely to react to the core rate. However, the differences that could impact the market here are really small. If the core rate is in line with expectations, it's just a decimal away from the prior. And a variation of a couple of decimal points from expectations is quite common. If the rate were to be at 6.1% or above, it would likely lead to speculation that the BOC will keep its aggressive stance. Because it suggests that a downward trend in the core inflation rate has not been established yet. This idea could get an extra boost later this week if the Fed raises rates by 100bps, which could lead to speculation that the BOC might raise rates by a full percentage point again. What if expectations aren't met? On the other hand, a miss of expectations by just two decimals (or more) would signal that the downward trajectory in inflation is intact. That could return the discussion to how much the BOC will moderate its tightening at the next meeting. And, again, this could be further supported if the Fed hikes by just 75bps on Wednesday. Read next: This Will Be The Highest Rate Level In Five Years| FXMAG.COM As for the Canadian dollar, weakness has been attributed to the expectation that the BOC will "pivot" first. But if headline inflation is coming down, while core inflation signals the BOC will remain aggressive, the upward trend of the USDCAD could get interrupted. Of course, the situation could be reversed if inflation signals the BOC could take a breather in the steep rate climbing.

China’s Premier Li Keqiang told the state media on Monday that the Chinese economy maintains a recovering trend overall, as reported by Reuters. China will increase imports of agricultural products from Vietnam, Li further noted. Market reaction These comments don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on risk perception and safe haven flows continue to dominate the financial markets. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was up 0.25% on the day at 109.90 and the US stock index futures were losing between 0.75% and 0.9%. 

In the view of economists at HSBC, the USD’s outlook depends on global growth, risk appetite, and relative yields but they still do not see a shift in these three drivers. As such, the US dollar will remain resilient. Ongoing and persistent strength The USD is likely to remain supported by a deteriorating global growth outlook, with rising recession probabilities in Europe and the UK.  “The Federal Reserve is likely to continue to hike rates until early 2023 before keeping its policy rate steady throughout 2023, according to our economists and the current rates market expectations. In other words, the Fed’s tightening path and associated USD strength are likely to persist.”  “It is hard to see how risk appetite can change for the better, while global growth weakness and central banks pivoting to rate cuts are not on the near-term horizon. The current risk-averse tone in financial markets is likely to also support the USD, given its ‘safe-haven’ profile. Nonetheless, it will be important to see if risk appetite improves, once markets believe central banks have raised rates enough.”

Canada CPI Overview Statistics Canada will release the latest consumer inflation figures for August later during the early North American session on Wednesday, at 12:30 GMT. The headline CPI is expected to decline by 0.1% MoM as compared to a modest 0.1% rise reported in July. Furthermore, the yearly rate is anticipated to decelerate from 7.6% to 7.3% in August. More importantly, the Bank of Canada's Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is estimated to rise by 0.3% MoM in August and come in at 6% on a yearly basis, down from 6.1% in July. Analysts at RBC Economics offer a brief preview of the report and explain: “We look for a dip from 7.6% in July to 7.2% in August – down from a recent peak of 8.1% in June. But beneath the weakening headline number, some prices are still powering up. Food price growth likely accelerated again. And we look for the rate excluding food and energy products to hold steady at 5.5%. Alongside this, the Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures also likely remained elevated. We continue to believe the headline inflation rate has hit its peak as lower commodity prices and easing global supply chain pressures lower growth in goods prices. But we don’t expect ‘core’ measures to peak until later this year when higher interest rates start to cut deeply into consumer demand.” How Could it Affect USD/CAD? The Bank of Canada (BoC)focuses more on the core rate. If the reading comes in line with expectations or slightly above, it will fuel speculations the BoC will keep its aggressive stance. This might be enough to provide a modest lift to the Canadian dollar, though subdued action around crude oil prices could cap any meaningful upside. Conversely, a softer print should allow the USD/CAD pair to build on its intraday positive move amid resurgent US dollar demand. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside. Hence, a subsequent strength back towards testing the highest level since November 2020, around the 1.3345 region touched on Monday, remains a distinct possibility. The momentum could further get extended towards the top boundary of a multi-month-old ascending channel, currently placed just ahead of the 1.3400 round-figure mark. On the flip side, the 1.3220-1.3210 region, coinciding with the overnight swing low, might continue to protect any meaningful pullback ahead of the 1.3200 mark. Any subsequent decline might still be seen as a buying opportunity and find decent support near the 1.3120-1.3115 region. This is closely followed by the 1.3100 mark, below which the USD/CAD pair could accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near the 1.3055 horizontal zone. Key Notes   •   Canadian CPI Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, core inflation to stay high   •   USD/CAD Forecast: Bullish potential intact, Canadian CPI eyed ahead of FOMC meeting   •   USD/CAD: Levels below 1.30 might remain out of reach for now – Commerzbank About Canadian CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by Statistics Canada is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of CAD is dragged down by inflation. The Bank of Canada aims at an inflation range (1%-3%). Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

Canada's second-quarter GDP grew by +3.3% year-on-year, data released earlier this month by Statistics Canada showed. This indicator followed the growth of 3.1% in the first quarter but also fell short of the market's growth expectations of 4.5%. On a quarterly basis, real GDP grew by 0.8%. "Growth in the 2nd quarter was contained by a decline in investment in housing construction and household spending on durable goods, as well as growth in imports, which exceeded exports. Final domestic demand rose by 0.7% after a 0.9% increase in the first quarter," Statistics Canada said. At the same time, business activity in the manufacturing sector of Canada declined in August, and the S&P Global PMI fell to 48.7 from 52.5 in July. The reading was well below market expectations of 53.6 and fell below 50, which separates growth from slowdown in business activity. At the same time, "output and new orders fell at a faster pace, and employment fell for the first time since the start of the pandemic in two years," S&P Global Market Intelligence noted. Nevertheless, at a meeting on September 7, the Bank of Canada decided to tighten financial conditions for the country's business by raising the interest rate once again and immediately by 0.75%. In an accompanying statement, the BOC said that rates would need to be raised further given the outlook for inflation. "The data point to a further increase in price pressures, especially in services. Short-term inflation expectations remain high and the Bank of Canada remains strongly committed to price stability and will take the necessary steps to reach its 2% inflation target." Data released two days later showed that the Canadian unemployment rate rose to 5.4% in August from 4.9% in July, which was worse than market expectations of 5%. The net change in employment was -39.7k versus the market's expectation of +15k. Full-time employment decreased by 77.2k and part-time employment increased by 37.5k over the same period. Thus, the BOC found itself in a difficult situation. On the one hand, it needs to control the level of inflation, which continues to rise. On the other hand, it also needs to take into account the deteriorating macroeconomic data coming from Canada. The next meeting of the regulator is on October 26. Assessing the reaction of the Canadian dollar to the results of the September meeting of the BOC (it first strengthened and then continued to sharply weaken against the US dollar), it would probably be logical to assume further growth in the USD/CAD pair, also taking into account the fall in oil prices, stock indices and expectations of the development of a super tight monetary policy cycle of the Fed. Today, the Fed meeting begins, which will end on Wednesday with the publication of the decision on the interest rate. Another increase of 0.75% is widely expected. However, a significant number of economists and market participants are betting on a more decisive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy (an increase in the interest rate by 1.0% at once) and on harsh comments from the Fed's leaders regarding the further prospects for the central bank's policy. As for today's news concerning the dynamics of the CAD and the USD/CAD pair, it is worth paying attention to the publication at (12:30 GMT) of consumer price indices in Canada. They are a key indicator of inflation, and consumer prices account for the majority of overall inflation. Estimating the level of inflation is important for the management of the central bank in determining the parameters of the current monetary policy. If the expected data turns out to be weaker than the previous values, as expected, this will negatively affect the CAD and positively affect the USD/CAD pair. As of writing, it is trading near 1.3285, in a sustained bull market. On the daily chart of the pair, there is a recently formed range between the local high at 1.3343 and the low at 1.3227. Given the strong upward momentum, it is logical to assume further growth, and a breakdown of the local resistance level 1.3343 will be a confirming signal for our assumption.   Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322148

US Dollar Index to extend upward momentum on a break above 111 – SocGen The US Dollar Index (DXY) moves sideways slightly above 109.50. Economists at Société Générale expect the index to enjoy further gains on a break past 111. Read next: The Global Household Wealth Report, A Hacking Attack And More| FXMAG.COM Short-term downtrend likely on a dip under 107.60 “If the index establishes itself above the high formed earlier this month at 111 – which is also a graphical level, the up move is expected to extend further towards next projections at 112.60/113.00.”  “It is worth noting that the daily MACD has started posting negative divergence. Although this is not a reversal signal, it does point towards receding upward momentum.” “Defending the 50-DMA at 107.60 would be essential for persistence in uptrend. Should a break materialize, a short-term downtrend is likely.”

Tension in markets has increased markedly. Investors are already aware that interest rates will rise by 0.75% to 3.25%, so they are trying to determine the overall impact to the US economy and global financial markets. Most likely, the effect will be negative as rates above 3% are definitely restrictive, affecting the income of businesses, industrial activity and employment. Rising interest rates will hit companies that have high debts first, which will lead to a slowdown in production and beginning of layoffs. In this situation, the stock market may sink deeper, and many companies and businesses will go bankrupt. Treasury yields will also increase, which will lead to a rise in the cost of servicing the public debt by the US government. In the event of geopolitical tensions, no rate hikes, even by the ECB, will ease pressure in the market. This is because dollar is a safe haven asset and a better option in the face of military conflict in the Euro area. Another supporting factor for dollar is the decreasing demand for stocks, which was also brought upon by the increase in rates and the desire of the Fed to actively raise them further. The situation will only change if, at the press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announces that further plans on interest rates will depend on the incoming inflation data. Stocks and other commodities, such as gold, will rally at that time, while dollar will fall. This is because a decrease in inflation will prompt the Fed to ease the pace of rate increases, and then stop it altogether. Forecasts for today: USD/CAD The pair is trading above 1.3370. If the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, demand for dollar will surge, which will lead to a growth towards 1.3500. AUD/USD The pair fell below 0.6675 because of the escalation of crisis around Ukraine. If the Fed raises rates by 0.75%, the quote will dip further to 0.6585. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322248

Today, the US Federal Reserve will finally announce its decision on interest rates and present new economic projections as well as the dot plot. On Wednesday morning, the futures market saw an 82% probability of a 75 basis point rate increase and an 18% chance of a hike by 100 basis points at once, which is in line with the earlier forecasts. Meanwhile, the greenback is edging higher but its upside potential is limited. During the day, demand for risk assets could increase as the Kremlin is preparing to hold a referendum in four partially occupied regions of Ukraine on joining Russia. This could trigger geopolitical jitters and change the course of the military confrontation. USD/CAD Inflation in Canada slowed to 7% in August from 7.6% in the previous month, beating economists' forecasts. Core inflation came at 5.8% versus 6.1% a month earlier. In this light, expectations of the hawkish Bank of Canada could ease, causing a drop in the loonie. The Canadian regulator will hold the board meeting in a week. Now there is a high probability of a more than 50 basis point rate rise. Otherwise, the Bank of Canada could choose to pause with tightening as the CPI, excluding food and energy prices, grew by 2.6% on a seasonally adjusted and yearly basis, the lowest rise since February 2021. In other words, with a slowdown in the inflation rate, the Bank of Canada could take some time – at least 5 weeks until the next meeting – to see how things unfold. The net long position on CAD dropped by 481 million in a week. CAD positioning is still bullish although bearish sentiment is increasing. Meanwhile, the fair value is rising. Last week, the target stood at the swing high of 1.3222, The quote broke through the barrier and approached the technical resistance level of 1.3335. The impulse is still strong and is unlikely to end any time soon. The new target is seen in the 1.3640/60 resistance zone. The price could approach the range already by the end of the week. USD/JPY In Japan, inflation hit 3% year-over-year in August, coming above market expectations. Still, Japan is not one of those countries that are now dealing with soaring inflation. Although the price of goods in the country accelerated by 5.7% year-over-year, the price of services saw an uptick of just 0.2% (49.54% of the whole index). This is due to a sluggish rise in wages and long-term prospects of decreasing internal demand amid the depopulation and aging of Japanese society. The Bank of Japan simply cannot set the same inflation target as in the West, given its significant structural differences. In other words, while other central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the ECB, are doing everything to tame inflation, the Bank of Japan should do the opposite. Therefore, the Japanese regulator will hardly change its stance on monetary policy. The Bank of Japan has recently checked to see how the yen is doing. It called dealers at commercial banks to find out about the current state of the foreign exchange market. The bank does this, expecting intervention from the government (the Minister of Finance), which is legally responsible for the country's exchange rate policy. Exchange rate checking serves a dual purpose. Firstly, it lets the market know that the government is ready to intervene. Secondly, it signals that the authorities are concerned about the speed of market change. Oftentimes, after such checks, the government intervenes to stabilize the yen, especially since the yield on 10-year bonds has been holding 1 point above the target (0.251%) for several days. In other words, intervention is the only thing that can be done. This is also a signal of an imminent inflow of liquidity. So, the yen is likely to deepen its weakening. The net short position on JPY is still increasing, with a weekly gain of 1.883 billion. The currency is likely to stay bearish, with the fair value above the long-term MA. In this light, short-term consolidation slightly below 145 is coming to an end and could be followed by a breakout above the mark. The psychologically important level stands at the next target of 147.71. Still, it could hardly be reached. The Federal Reserve's monetary stance is likely to be exactly the opposite of the Bank of Japan's in the long run. So, the yen will remain in a bear trend unless, of course, sudden geopolitical events change the balance of risk. Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322234

Red lines- bullish channel Blue line- bearish RSI divergence The Dollar index ahead of the FOMC meeting later today, is making new 2022 highs. The RSI continues to provide bearish divergence warning signals. This implies that the up trend is weakening. It is not a reversal signal. It is a warning. That is why traders need to be very cautious. Technically trend remains bullish as price remains inside the upward sloping channel. However it is justified to see a bigger than usual pull back at least towards 106. Will the trigger be today's FOMC? Traders need to remain patient. Even a pull back towards 106 will not cancel the bullish medium-term trend we are in. Price will still be inside the bullish channel. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293648 Relevance up to 13:00 2022-09-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293648

Fed officials have given the clearest signal that they are willing to tolerate a recession in order to regain control of inflation. It seems that they are finally taking active steps to catch up after being criticized for being too late in realizing the magnitude of the inflation problem in the US. On Wednesday, the central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points and announced a potential 1.25% increase before the end of the year. This is more hawkish than economists expected. Growth forecasts were also cut, while unemployment forecasts were lifted. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell repeatedly spoke of the painful slowdown needed to contain price pressures at their highest levels since the 1980s. Gold reacted brightly to this news. Powell told reporters that soft landings are likely to decrease to the point where policies need to be tighter or more restrictive for a longer period. This assessment contrasts sharply with six months ago, when Fed officials first started raising rates from near zero and pointed to the strength of the economy as a positive. Now, officials are implicitly acknowledging through their pessimistic unemployment forecasts that demand will need to be cut at all levels of the economy as inflation has proven resilient and widespread. The median forecast among the 19 Fed officials is that unemployment will hit 4.4% next year and remain at that level through 2024. But this new level may still be too low as interest rates are likely to hit 4.4% this year and 4.6% in 2023, before falling to 3.9% in 2024.   Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322407

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair made another lower low as the sell-off continues. At the time of writing the article the local low was made at the level of 0.9771, but the target for bears is seen at 127% Fibonacci extension located at 0.9744. No nearest technical support in view, however, the resistance is seen at 0.9901 and 0.9867. In the longer term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 (swing high from August 11th), so the bulls still have a long road to take before the longer term down trend is reversed. Please watch the USDX as the correlation between this two markets (EUR/USD and USDX) is directly opposite. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.01231 WR2 - 1.00595 WR1 - 1.00262 Weekly Pivot - 0.99959 WS1 - 0.99626 WS2 - 0.99323 WS3 - 0.98687 Trading Outlook: Despite the recent relief rally towards the short-term support, the EUR is still under the strong bearish pressure and as long as the USD is kept being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue. In the mid-term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 and only if this level is clearly violated, the down trend might be considered terminated. Please notice, there is plenty of room for the EUR to go down.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293952

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory for a fourth straight day. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3522, up 0.24% on the day. The US dollar continues to shine, particularly against risk-sensitive currencies such as the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD has jumped 1.9% this week and the Canadian dollar has fallen to lows last seen in July 2020. Risk sentiment has eroded due to the escalation in the Ukraine war. The regions occupied by Russia are holding a referendum to join Russia, and no one has any doubt about the results. Russian President Putin has hinted that he could resort to nuclear weapons to defend “Russian territory” and he has also ordered a partial mobilization, as Ukraine presses on with an impressive counter-offensive. The energy crisis in Europe continues to brew – the Nordstream 1 pipeline has been out of service for several weeks, and Western European countries could face energy shortages, with winter only a few months away. Markets brace for soft retail sales Canada releases the July retail sales report later today. The markets are braced for a sharp downturn in consumer spending. The headline reading is expected at -2.0%, following a gain of 1.1% in June. Core retail sales is expected to fall by 1.8%, after a 0.8% gain in June. A sharp downturn could sour investors on Canada’s economic outlook and extend the Canadian dollar’s losses. Canada’s headline and core inflation indicators fell in August and were lower than expected. It’s still early to declare that inflation has peaked, but the BoC can declare a job well done if inflation is indeed falling. The BoC has been aggressive, delivering a 75bp increase earlier this month and bringing the benchmark to 3.25%. The markets have priced in a 50bp at the October meeting, followed by a modest 25bp hike in December. That would lift rates to an even 4.00%, which would be the highest since 2008, during the GFC. USD/CAD Technical USD is testing resistance at 1.3529. The next resistance line is 1.3615 There is support at 1.3414 and 1.3274 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. CAD extends losses, retail sales next - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Technical analysis: USD/CAD has been trading upside as I expected and the price is on strong bull run. I still see potential for further rally after the pullback. Trading recommendation: Due to the strong upside condition on USD/CAD, I see potential for further growth towards the next key pivot level. Watch for the potential buying opportunities on the intraday dips with the upside objective at the price of 1.3700. MACD oscillator is showing upside reading with no signs for the reversal. Support level is set at the price of 1.3550   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294163

The FX markets kick off the week on an extremely chaotic note. Both the pound and the euro are being severely punished for the political decisions that are taken in the UK and in Italy respectively. Elections in Italy As expected, the far-right candidate Giorgia Meloni won a clear majority in Italy at yesterday’s election, with Brothers of Italy gaining more than 25% of the votes. And Meloni’s right-wing alliance with Salvini’s League and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia got around 43% of the votes: the terrible consequence of the pandemic, the war and the energy crisis. Situation the major currency  The EURUSD has been shattered this morning. The pair dived to 0.9550. But it’s almost worst across the Channel, if that’s any consolation. Investors really hated the ‘mini budget’ announced in UK last Friday. Investors were expecting to hear about a huge spending package from Liz Truss government, but the package has been even HUGER than the market expectations. UK’s 10-year yield jumped more than 20% since last week, the FTSE dived near 2% and Cable tanked below 1.0350 in Asia this morning. Elsewhere, the US dollar index took a lift, and the dollar index is just crossing above the 114 mark at the time of talking. Stock market Outlook Gold dived to $1626 on the back of soaring US dollar. US crude oil plunged below $80 per barrel. The S&P500 fell to the lowest levels since this summer, whereas the Dow Jones fell below the summer dip. Happily, the European equities are better bid this morning, but investors remain tense and worried. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 Italy turns right, euro gets smashed 4:15 UK assets treated like EM after the ‘MINI’ budget 7:45 USD rallies, XAU, oil under pressure 8:49 US stocks dive to, or below summer lows on Fed fear Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Italy #election #Meloni #UK #mini #budget #EUR #GBP #selloff #USD #rally #crude #oil #XAU #BP #APA #XOM #recession #energy #crisis #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Summary:  Today we look at very weak global sentiment as the US dollar and US treasury yields continue to soar, taking US equities to the key cycle lows as we wonder what shape the capitulation will take - a quick test and reverse or a more profound move driven by poor liquidity? Elsewhere, we note sterling's historic drop and suggest that it is time for the Bank of England to step in with an emergency rate hike - or else. Crude oil, gold, stocks to watch today (including Apple with some concern around iPhone 14 orders) and more are on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean engraver If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-sep-26-2022-26092022

The dollar burst on horseback in the new working week, and the USD/JPY pair regained strength. The asset jumped by more than 0.3% at the beginning of Monday and broke through the resistance at 144. The dollar broke loose Recall that last week the dollar-yen pair tickled the nerves of traders more than once, getting into a zone of increased turbulence. First, on the increased monetary divergence between the US and Japan, the asset managed to reach a new 24-year high at 145. And then, as a result of the currency intervention carried out by Japan in support of its national currency, the quote sharply collapsed from this peak by more than 500 points. The intervention of the Japanese authorities helped JPY to complete the last seven days in a slight positive. This was the first weekly growth of the yen in a month. However, as analysts predicted, the effect of unilateral intervention was short-lived. The USD/JPY pair started the new working week with a steady growth. During the Asian session, the Japanese currency fell again against its US counterpart below the 144 mark. The pressure on the JPY was exerted by a large-scale rally of the dollar. On Monday morning, the greenback reached another high against the euro and the pound. Thus, the euro fell against the dollar by 0.4%, to $0.9654, as the Democrats lost to the far-right party in the parliamentary elections in Italy. Such an outcome opens the way to the political restructuring of the EU. Meanwhile, the British pound fell in price against the dollar by 2.8%, to a record low of $1.0555. Fears of an even greater increase in inflation if the government implements a plan to reduce taxes contributed to the pound's fall. At the time of release, the dollar strengthened on almost all fronts, as a result of which the DXY index soared by more than 0.5%, to a new 20-year peak at 114.58. Why is the demand for USD growing? The strong jump in the US currency was caused by an increase in anti-risk sentiment and an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds. World stock markets are falling now for two main reasons. The first is another escalation of the conflict between Russia and the West. This time, relations have worsened amid referendums held by the Kremlin in the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, as well as in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of Ukraine. Moscow has promised to take these regions under full protection if they become part of Russia. Western politicians regarded this as a direct threat of the use of nuclear weapons. Also, the growth of fears about the global recession contributes to a decrease in risk appetite. The wave of rate hikes observed last week significantly worsened forecasts for global economic growth. As major central banks continue to raise rates, their economies are noticeably weaker. The only exception is the US. Despite the fact that the Fed is at the forefront of tightening monetary policy, the American economy is still firmly on its feet. This is evidenced by the latest US macro data published on Friday. A report from S&P Global showed that in September, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of America rose from 51.5 to 51.8, while its counterpart in the service sector recovered from 44.6 to 49.3. Positive statistics helped to strengthen expectations of a more aggressive Fed policy, especially since at the end of the week, officials of the US central bank intensified their hawkish rhetoric. On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank is determined to continue actively fighting inflation. The comments of Fed Vice Chairman Lael Brainard and Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic were in the same spirit. Hawkish speeches by politicians helped to disperse the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds to 3.74%, which inspired the dollar to a new record. You can't envy the yen The aggressive position of the US central bank in relation to interest rates is what is now drowning the Japanese currency. Despite the recently thrown lifeline in the form of intervention, the yen is increasingly sinking to the bottom and risks approaching the red line again – the 145 mark. An additional ballast that does not allow the JPY to go up is the news about the next dovish actions of the Bank of Japan. On Monday morning, it became known that the BOJ again decided to increase the volume of bond purchases, as the benchmark yield of 10-year Japanese bonds jumped to the upper limit of the acceptable trading range of the central bank. Also, strong pressure on the JPY was exerted by the statement of the former chief currency diplomat of Japan, Naoyuki Shinohara. In an interview with Reuters, the official said that the government is unlikely to go for another large-scale intervention, so as not to draw fire from other G7 participants. – The most that the authorities can do now is to try to smooth out the volatility in the foreign exchange market with small purchases of the yen, but this will clearly not be enough to reverse the downward trend, – he stressed. Nevertheless, traders playing bullish for the USD/JPY pair should be on their guard. Some analysts do not rule out that the Japanese authorities may again intervene, which will cause a short-term rebound of the quote. This is evidenced by today's comments by Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. On Monday morning, the politician issued another warning: "We are deeply concerned about the recent rapid decline of the yen, partly caused by speculative trading, and our position of readiness to respond to such steps as necessary has not changed," he said. The increased risk of intervention may become a minor obstacle for bulls on the dollar-yen pair in the short term. However, most analysts believe that this week the asset will still move mainly in the upward direction. In the coming days, the dollar may receive several more powerful impulses for growth, as a number of speeches by Fed representatives are expected throughout the week. According to experts, American politicians will continue to bend the hawkish line, which will further add fuel to the fire of monetary divergence between the United States and Japan. This will favor the dollar's growth, as a result of which the USD/JPY pair can demonstrate another record.   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322630

The Federal Reserve is facing one of its most difficult times, which began with the enforced worldwide lockdown that brought the global economy to a standstill. This led to excessive government stimulus. The result: rising inflation and a critical blunder by the Federal Reserve that led the economy into a potential intractable crisis. This was the single but critical fallacy of the Fed that made it impossible for the US economy not to enter a deep recession with high and persistent inflation that would hurt the economy for years to come. The Fed did nothing The Federal Reserve System has for many years maintained the view that inflation is transitory. On the assumption that rising inflation was a temporary scenario that would naturally work out over time, the Fed did nothing. By not raising interest rates a few years ago when inflation began to rise, they sealed the fate of creating the economic scenario that was currently in place. This inaction put the Fed in a position where it was too late to act. Because the Federal Reserve did not respond in a timely manner, it lost the ability to effectively stem the rise in inflation. There has never been a case in history when the Federal Reserve effectively reduced inflation without raising interest rates. Forced lockdowns and the 2020 recession resulted in an average inflationary pressure of 1.2%. In 2021, inflation was 1.4% in January, and was already 2.6% in March. If the Federal Reserve were to step in and start raising rates rather than keeping inflation going, it could have dramatic consequences. Instead, the Federal Reserve did nothing. If they had acted at this point and started slowly raising interest rates that were artificially set low between 0 and a%, they would have made a huge impact by simply bringing interest rates up to 2%. The Fed will need to raise rates In April 2021, inflation was 4.2%, and the Federal Reserve continued to do nothing and artificially lower interest rates. By May 2021, inflation rose to 5%, and to 5.4% in June, and the Fed still did nothing. In fact, inflation rose to 6.2% in October, 6.8% in November and 7% in December, while the Federal Reserve still did nothing and kept interest rates artificially low. By the time the Federal Reserve initiated its first interest rate hike in March 2022, inflation was already at 8%. For now, the Fed will need to raise rates to at least 8% to have any sustained impact on lowering inflation. It is clear that the signs of rising inflation that took place in 2021 showed a clear and systemic increase by the first quarter, when the Fed should have acted, but did not. It was its basic misconception that inflation was transient that led to the inactivity of the Federal Reserve before it was too late. The consequences of the inaction Now the Federal Reserve is trying to reduce inflation by raising interest rates that cannot be sustained for a long time. With the national debt well above 120% of GDP, if interest rates were raised from 3% to 8% today, it would add $1.5 trillion a year to service the national debt. Clearly, the Federal Reserve has backed itself into a corner, and because of a critical mistake that forced them to do nothing when they could have had a strong and immediate impact on inflation, instead they sat on the sidelines and watched interest rates spiral out of control. In the coming years, the consequences of the inaction of the Federal Reserve System will certainly take place in the form of a deep and prolonged recession and high inflation, which at best will remain at a level of just above 4%.   Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322656

The inexorable rally of the US dollar to 20-year highs is taking its toll on the gold market. Prices ended last week near their lowest level since April 2020. The extraordinary momentum of the dollar and rising bond yields turned Wall Street analysts into bearish sentiment. At the same time, according to the latest weekly survey, retail investors are more optimistic that prices may rise this week. A total of 19 market professionals took part in Wall Street survey last week. Ten analysts, or 53%, said they are bearish on gold this week. At the same time, six analysts, or 32%, said they expect prices to rise in the near future, and three, or 16%, are neutral about the precious metal. In the retail sector, 963 respondents took part in online surveys. A total of 469 voters, or 49%, called for gold to rise. Another 341, or 35%, predicted a fall in prices. The remaining 153 voters, or 16%, were in favor of a side market. Retail investor sentiment improved from the previous week. The past week has been volatile for the gold market as the precious metal managed to maintain critical support levels even after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points and signaled that the federal funds rate could exceed 4.5% next year. Many analysts say gold has been able to withstand the US central bank's aggressive monetary policy as the threat of a recession continues to grow. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he didn't know if the central bank's move would send the US economy into recession but added that consumers should expect some trouble as lower growth is needed to contain inflation. Similarly, analysts believe that the threat of a recession created some initial demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, that sentiment has been dampened by volatility in global currency markets as the British pound suffered its biggest price drop since 2016, when the country voted to leave the European Union. The sell-off was triggered after Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled the government's new budget, with spending commitments of between £36bn and £45bn over the next four fiscal years. The massive spending initiative will be paid for with new debt. Analysts note that the dominance of the US dollar can be felt in a wide-ranging sell-off in the commodity sector. Although there is still some optimism in the market as many see gold as oversold and see any rally as a short term correction. Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, sees a short-term rebound as bond yields consolidate. He added that he is observing if support at $1,650 can hold. Many analysts are bearish on gold as they expect the US dollar may still rise.   Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322658

Summary:  Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to Tuesday, September 20, a week leading up to the FOMC meeting, Bank of Japan intervention, a Sterling crisis and the dollar surging to levels not seen in decades. Ahead of these events speculators chose to cut their dollar long by one-third, increasing their gold short to a four year high while adding exposure in grains and crude oil Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to Tuesday, September 20. A week that saw financial market adjust positions ahead of the FOMC meeting on September 21. In anticipation of another 75 basis point rate hike, the market sold stocks, bonds and commodities while the dollar was bought. As it turned out, the FOMC was the starting shot to a very volatile end of week that saw heightened recession worries, Bank of Japan intervention to support the yen for the first time in 24 years, and an unfolding crisis in the UK sending the Sterling towards an all-time low.   Commodities The Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped 2.3% during the week to last Tuesday with losses seen across most sectors, the exception being grains and livestock. Selling was particularly felt across the energy sector and in precious metals. Money managers responded to these heightened growth and strong dollar concerns by cutting length in energy and softs while adding to already short positions in precious metals. The only sector continuing to see demand were grains where the speculators have now been net buyers in all but one of the last eight reporting weeks. Energy Money managers raised their combined crude oil net long to a seven-week high despite the recessionary clouds growing ever darker and the dollar continued to strengthen. During the reporting week when oil dropped around 3% the total net long in WTI and Brent was raised by 13.5k contracts to 355k lots. The ICE gas long meanwhile slumped by 30% to a 22-month low while in New York the ULSD (diesel) length was cut by 17% to 15.7k contracts. Despite falling by around 7% only small changes were seen in natural gas. Metals Gold selling accelerated last week with the net short jumping by 225% to 33k contracts to near a four-year low. This the culmination of six consecutive weeks of selling driven by a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields as well a firm belief the FOMC will successfully manage to bring inflation under control next year. Silver saw no major net change with reductions in both long and short positions offsetting each other. The copper net short was unchanged at 4k contacts, the weakest belief in lower prices since June while platinum’s 3.5% rally supported an 82% reduction in the net short to just 2k contracts, again weakest short bet since June. Agriculture The grains sector saw continued demand with speculators having been net buyers in all but one of the past eight weeks. The increase last week was led by a 16% increase in the soymeal long to 102k contracts, a seasonal high while corn buying extended to an eight week. The wheat market which found support from renewed threats to the Ukraine grain corridor saw net buying of both Chicago and Kansas wheat. Overall however the net exposure remains close to zero with a 16k contracts CBT net short partly offsetting a 19k contracts long in KCB wheat. Renewed selling of sugar cut the net long by 72% to 8.6k contracts, the cocoa net short extended to a fresh 3-1/2 year high while long liquidation continued in both coffee and cotton.   Forex Ahead of the post-FOMC dollar surge to a fresh multi-year high against several major currencies, and the first intervention from the Bank of Japan to support the yen in 24 years, speculators had reduced bullish dollar bets by 35% to $13.9 billion, a six month low. The bulk of the change was driven by the biggest amount of short covering in the euro since March 2020, a change that flipped the position back to a long of 33k lots or €4.2 billion equivalent, up from a €6 billion short three weeks ago.The net short in sterling was reduced by 13k lots to 55k lots just days before tumbling to a 37-year low following the announcement of a historic debt financed tax cuts. The yen meanwhile saw no major changes ahead of Thursday’s USDJPY surge and subsequent    What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/cot-specs-sold-dollar-and-gold-ahead-of-fomc-26092022

  US Dollar Index Chart - Where Is The Support? The US dollar index rose to fresh highs at about 114.35 during the early trading hours on Monday before finding resistance and reversing sharply lower. The index is seen to be trading close to 113.00 at this point in writing. It is expected to continue drifting lower towards 110.17 going forward. The bulls might have carved a potential top around 114.36 as the bears are getting ready to break below 112.85 now. Read next: The Statement By Elon Musk About Starlink May Cause Confusion | Leaders Must Take Action To Protect The Environment | FXMAG.COM The 1-hour chart presented here is indicating initial support at 110.17, followed by 109.00 and 107.40 levels. Potential resistance stays at 114.35 respectively. A break below 110.17 will confirm with respect to the price action that a top is in place and the bears are back in control. It is not shown here but a Doji/Pinbar candlestick pattern is being carved on the daily chart. DXY - What Can We Expect From The USD Index In The Near Future? The US dollar index might be setting up for a larger-degree corrective drop towards 107.40 and further in the coming weeks. We need to see a bearish candle formation on the daily chart to confirm the same. While it is early to confirm a bearish resumption, a high probability remains for a meaningful top to be in place at 114.35 so that the bears are back in control soon. Trading idea: Preparing for a potential drop against 114.35 soon. Good luck! Relevance up to 15:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294251

  The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument still does not require adjustments, but it is undoubtedly becoming more complicated. We saw the completion of the construction of the next five-wave impulse descending wave structure, then one correction wave upward, after which the low waves of 5 were updated. These movements allow me to conclude that the pattern of five months ago was repeated when the 5-wave structure down was completed in the same way, one wave up, and we saw five more waves down. There is no question of any classical wave structure (5 trend waves, 3 correction waves) right now. The news background is such that the market even builds single corrective waves with great reluctance. Thus, in such circumstances, I cannot predict the end of the downward trend segment. We can still observe the pattern of a strong wave down "a weak corrective wave up" for a very long time. The goals of the downward trend segment, which has been complicated and lengthened many times, can be found up to 90 figures, and maybe even lower. The market should be blamed for the fall of the euro currency. At the moment, many analysts note that relations between Brussels and Rome may become seriously complicated The euro/dollar instrument fell by 130 basis points on Monday and then rose by 80. For the European currency, the first day of the week passed relatively calmly, as the pound sterling fell by 400 points simultaneously. On Saturday, I questioned the assumption that the business activity indices caused a strong fall in the euro and the pound on Friday. As we can see, Monday has already shown us this is the case. After the usual statistical data (and there was nothing terrible or beautiful in the indexes), the instruments do not pass by several hundred points. The normal reaction to the indices is a movement of 30-50 points. Even before Friday's reports, most indices were below the key 50.0 mark, meaning the market was not shocked by the sudden decline in business activity. Read more: The Statement By Elon Musk About Starlink May Cause Confusion | Leaders Must Take Action To Protect The Environment | FXMAG.COM I can say the same about another news background. For example, today it became known about the victory in the elections in Italy of far-right parties, which, to put it mildly, are not too focused on the European values that Brussels preaches. At the moment, many analysts note that relations between Brussels and Rome may become seriously complicated, but there is no word that Italy may leave the European Union or may now adhere to a radically different policy than the one that has been in recent years. The government has changed, but what has changed for the country itself if it still remains in the European Union, where all decisions are made collectively and at the highest level, which presupposes the consent of the majority of the alliance members? Therefore, I personally believe that the election results, which, by the way, were not yet known at night, are also not the reason for a new decline in demand for the euro currency. It seems to me that the foreign exchange market has been in a state of shock due to too much negative economic, political and geopolitical news. General conclusions. Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward trend section continues, but can end at any time. At this time, the instrument continues to decline, so I advise careful sales with targets located near the estimated mark of 0.9397, which equates to 423.6% Fibonacci. I urge caution, as it is unclear how much longer the decline in the euro currency will continue. At the higher wave scale, the wave marking of the descending trend segment becomes noticeably more complicated and lengthens. It can take on almost any kind of length, so I think it's best now to isolate the three and five wave standard structures from the overall picture and work on them. One of these five waves can be just completed now, and the new one has begun its construction.   Relevance up to 15:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322690

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.11% to hit a 52-week low, the S&P 500 fell 1.03%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.60%. Walmart Inc was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 1.25 points (0.96%) to close at 131.31. Apple Inc rose 0.34 points (0.23%) to close at 150.77. Procter & Gamble Company rose 0.13 points or 0.10% to close at 135.71. The biggest losers were The Travelers Companies Inc, which shed 4.88 points or 3.14% to end the session at 150.60. Boeing Co was up 2.99% or 3.92 points to close at 127.34, while Chevron Corp was down 2.63% or 3.81 points to close at 140.96. . Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Wynn Resorts Limited, which rose 11.99% to 66.80, Las Vegas Sands Corp, which gained 11.81% to close at 39.66. as well as Costco Wholesale Corp, which rose 2.98% to end the session at 480.30. The losers were DISH Network Corporation, which shed 6.12% to close at 14.27. Shares of The AES Corporation shed 5.48% to end the session at 22.96. Quotes of Halliburton Company decreased in price by 5.17% to 23.31. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were LAVA Therapeutics NV, which rose 97.50% to 4.74, DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd, which gained 42.87% to close at 0.45. as well as shares of Panbela Therapeutics Inc, which rose 25.96% to close the session at 0.34. The biggest losers were Powerbridge Technologies Co Ltd, which shed 68.57% to close at 0.50. Shares of Scienjoy Holding Corp lost 43.77% to end the session at 1.67. Quotes of Snow Lake Resources Ltd fell in price by 40.88% to 1.88. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2652) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (536), while quotes of 132 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,592 stocks fell, 1,248 rose, and 275 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 7.82% to 32.26, hitting a new 3-month high. Gold futures for December delivery lost 1.56%, or 25.90, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 2.82%, or 2.22, to $76.52 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.81%, or 2.39, to $82.64 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 0.84% to hit 0.96, while USD/JPY edged up 0.94% to hit 144.66. Futures on the USD index rose by 0.98% to 114.07.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294320

Selling momentum may be easing, but a trend reversal looks optimistic Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global Markets: Slightly smaller declines in US stocks overnight may indicate that the momentum of the current stock selling spree may be running out. And certainly, relative strength indicators are pointing to stocks entering an oversold area. We are also sitting at approximately the June 2022 lows, so any further downward push may need a bit more fresh news, though if these levels are breached, it then opens up a lot more downward space. The S&P500 finished down 1.03% yesterday, the NASDAQ down 0.6%. Equity futures are signalling a tentative increase on today’s open. The USD continues to strengthen against almost everything. EURUSD is now 0.9614, though again, the moves were more muted than the previous session. Cable continues to look extremely dicey, dropping to 1.035 at one stage yesterday, though clawing back to 1.0718 currently on some comments from HM Treasury that there may be a plan to come up with a more coherent fiscal adjustment plan than what was delivered at the recent budget. It looks like markets are giving sterling the benefit of the doubt for now, though any mistakes will likely be punished severely and they may not wait until November for the new plan. The AUD also slid further yesterday, reaching 0.6465, while the JPY is back within spitting distance of the 145 level that led to intervention last time. So there may be a bit of hesitancy around this level, though ultimately, we see it being breached once more. Asian FX played catch up with Friday’s G-10 losses to the USD on Monday, The KRW and THB fell the most, though the INR has also gapped higher and is now at 81.62.  US Treasury markets keep weakening, and yields on the 2Y note have risen a further 14bp to 4.34%, while the 10Y yield has shot up 24bp to 3.92%, clearly eyeing the 4% level. Why not? Once again, the UK Gilt market was terrible, with 10Y Gilt yields rising just under 42bp to 4.24%. That was again worse than struggling Eurozone peripheral bond markets. G-7 macro: US housing data dominates the calendar today. We get house price data for July, which is still showing month-on-month gains, even if the annual rates of growth are coming off a bit. And we also have August New Home Sales, which at a 500,000 annual rate really are beginning to look quite tepid. Conference Board consumer confidence and durable goods orders complete the G-7 macro calendar today with nothing of note out of Europe, barring possible emergency central bank meetings and panicky government messaging. China: USDCNY and USDCNH are approaching 2019 and 2020 highs. But this time, there is an extra factor - a very weak EUR. So, we cannot rule out USDCNY and USDCNH passing 7.20 as aggressive Fed hikes stand out against the PBoC's accommodative rate policy. The main worry of such a weak yuan is capital outflows. If there were any signal of such outflows becoming meaningful, the PBoC would first increase the cost of shorting the yuan offshore. Korea: According to the Bank of Korea’s consumer sentiment survey, inflation expectations appear to have stabilized slightly for the second month in a row. Inflation expectations over the next 12 months have come down slightly to 4.2% in September from their recent peak of 4.7% in July. The Bank of Korea doesn’t seem to be worrying too much about anchoring consumers’ expectations for now. However, headline inflation will likely remain in the 5- 6% range until the year-end, increasing the risk of rising food prices and further currency depreciation. Therefore, we believe that the BoK will front-load its rate hikes to better contain inflation, and we look for them to take a 50bp step at their October meeting. What to look out for : China PMI South Korea consumer confidence (27 September) China industrial profits (27 September) US durable goods orders (27 September) US Conference Board consumer confidence and new home sales (27 September) Australia retail sales (28 September) Japan leading index (28 September) Bank of Thailand meeting (28 September) US mortgage applications and wholesale inventories (28 September)       South Korea business survey manufacturing (29 September) US initial jobless claims, 2Q GDP and core PCE (29 September) South Korea industrial production (30 September) Japan labour market data (30 September) China official and Caixin PMI manufacturing (30 September) India RBI meeting (30 September) Hong Kong retail sales (30 September) US personal income, personal spending and core PCE (30 September) US University of Michigan sentiment (30 September) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The US dollar continues to move higher. Economists at Commerzbank believe that a strong greenback is fundamentally justified. Strong, stronger, too strong? “The outlook for the US dollar remains positive. Yes, the significant rate hikes are beginning to have an effect, as today’s housing market data in particular is likely to underline. But order intake and consumer confidence are also likely to illustrate that the real economic environment remains relatively robust.” “Further rate hikes will be required to get a grip on inflation. The Fed’s determination is the most important factor supporting the dollar.” “It cannot be overlooked that the dollar is trading at record levels on a trade-weighted basis. However, current exchange rate levels are fundamentally justified.”

Pound tumbled to a record low on Monday due to concerns over the stability of the UK's financial position. It followed a strong decline last Friday, which occurred because of the widespread demand for the dollar in the context of the global crisis and geopolitical tensions, as well as the new UK Treasury Chief Kwasi Kwarteng's announcement that the government will implement the biggest tax cut in 50 years while increasing government borrowing and spending despite high inflation. The measures have raised expectations that the Bank of England may go for an emergency increase in the discount rate to strengthen market confidence and the national currency. In addition to the problems mentioned above, the UK is facing weak economic statistics. Business activity in the manufacturing sector reportedly fell below 50 points, which is bad for the economy. If the situation does not change, the pound will fall to parity with the dollar. Perhaps, there may be a local rebound in GBP/USD, but the main trend will be downward until the Bank of England decides on a sharp increase in rates. Forecasts for today: USD/CAD The pair is trading below the support level of 1.3675. A decrease in negative sentiment, local rebound in stock indices and strong rise in oil prices may prompt a further fall to 1.3575. USD/JPY The pair faced resistance at 144.80. But if market sentiment improves, it will bounce back to 143.15.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322744

Summary:  Havoc has spread to the markets, not just with the Fed staying the hawkish course, but with the collapse in confidence in the UK economy after a fiscal policy and lack of monetary policy response adding into the mix with a massive bond selloff. Meanwhile, the surge in the US dollar continued taking its toll on several currencies, and the effect of Japan’s intervention from last week has also faded. Earnings pressure may be the next shoe to drop, and recession concerns also still need to be priced in more broadly. Fed’s high-for-longer message is now being taken seriously The September FOMC meeting was not precisely a pivot point for the Fed, but more so for the markets which finally understood the Fed’s message on inflation. The dot plot, particularly, conveyed two key messages as listed below. Even though the accuracy of the dot plot remains in doubt, given a very weak correlation with what actually transpired previously, it is a great signalling tool to understand the intentions of the FOMC members. Terminal rate is seen at ~4.6%, which was above what Fed funds futures were pricing in before the meeting. Even slower growth and higher unemployment levels, as conveyed by the Fed’s projections, would not deter the central bank from hiking rates There was some pushback on premature easing, with the dot plot showing a 4.5-5.0% rate even at the end of December 2023. Alongside that commitment to tighten, the Fed is now at the full pace of its quantitative tightening program, which is sucking liquidity out of financial markets at a rapid pace. The aim is to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet by $95bn a month — double the August pace. While quantitative tightening strongly influences liquidity conditions and asset markets, it is less useful in directly impacting inflation. While systemic risks from QT may remain contained, it ramps up the rise in Treasury yields as the Fed’s balance sheet shrinks and the amount of Treasuries in private hands increases. Trussonomics pushing UK to an emerging market status Sterling has fallen close to 10% on a trade-weighted basis in a little under two months, and has surpassed the Japanese yen to be the weakest against the US dollar year-to-date. An immediate response from the Bank of England may have saved some face, but remember that last week’s BOE decision was a pretty split vote as well with two members voting for 75bps rate hike and one calling for a smaller 25bps rate hike as well. So, it remains hard to expect a prudent policy response from the BOE, and a parity for GBPUSD in that case may not prove to be the floor. UK’s net forex reserves of $100bn are also enough to only cover two months of imports, or roughly equal to 3% of GDP as compared to Japan’s 20% and Switzerland’s 115%. But it’s not just about the sterling crisis in the UK, but more generally a crisis of confidence. Not to forget, inflation forecasts for end of the year are already at 10%+ levels and the market is now pricing in over 200bps of rate hikes by the end of the year, with two meetings left. The central bank will need to deliver this massive tightening simply to keep the sterling where it currently is and that won’t reverse the impact of the government’s decisions on UK markets. The scale and speed of the hikes could also do significant damage to the economy. The iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU:arcx) traded lower by another 1.8% on Monday and is now down 7.3% over the last one week. Bank of Japan’s patience will keep getting tested We wrote earlier about what will need to change to call it a top in the US dollar, and nothing seems to be in order yet except some of the non-US officials starting to get concerned about currency weakness. Still, the intervention from Bank of Japan didn’t have long lasting effects on USDJPY, even as it helped to strengthen the yen against some of the other currencies such as the EUR, GBP or AUD. It may have also helped to stop some speculative shorts. But a coordinated intervention in the yen still remains a far cry, with the weakness in the Japanese yen being BoJ's own-doing due to the yield curve control policy. Japanese government bonds will likely continue to test the patience of Bank of Japan with its yield curve control policy. Downside for Japanese government bonds (JGB1c1) will potentially spike exponentially if the BOJ pivots at some point. Earnings pressure may be next While the Q2 earnings season proved to be more resilient than expectations, intensifying inflation concerns have turned corporates more cautious on the outlook and less optimistic for the near-term earnings performances. We have seen some downward revision of EPS estimates for the third quarter in July and August, and we still cannot rule out further grim outlook and margin pressures. Estimates for S&P 500 earnings in 2022 stood at $226.15 per share as of August 31, according to FactSet. This is down 1.5% from the $229.60 per share estimate as of June 30. For 2023, analysts now expect EPS of $243.68, down 2.8% from the June estimate of $250.61. So far, companies dealt with rising inflation by passing on increased costs to consumers, given the pandemic-era fiscal support measures underpinned strength in the consumer side. These increased pass-through was also visible in higher CPI prints. But with the economic outlook getting duller by the day, there is bound to be some pushback from the consumers and that will likely show up in the earnings report card. From a sectoral perspective, tech stocks will likely be battered as tight corporate budgets weigh and the US 10-year yields are in close sights of 4%. Semiconductors, a barometer of global economic health, could also face further pressure. Meanwhile, the oil and gas sector was the saviour of the Q2 earnings season, but would also likely see some pressure in Q3, unless the outlook starts to look slightly more upbeat with improving capex plans. Dollar pivot is the next key catalyst to watch The majority of the market downfall we have seen so far has come from a rapid shift in cost of capital and correcting peak valuation. The next leg, as discussed above could be the earnings recession. Still, economic recession risks remain and history suggests that the market lows do not come until after the recession begins (see chart below). Still, with the US 10-year yields approaching 4% - which maybe a likely ceiling – the focus turns to a reversal in the US dollar as the next pivot, not the Fed. Testing those key levels could mean a short-term bounce in equities which may be favourable for building new short positions as the trend still remains down. Alternatively, for investors, it would rather be optimal to look for signs of selling exhaustion to accumulate long positions, such as VIX above 40. Historically, a decline in stocks of the order of 20% makes it buying stocks after they have been down 20% from record highs has been a good risk/reward proposition for longer-term investors.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/macro-insights-approaching-a-breaking-point-but-not-without-more-pain-first-27092022

Technical analysis: USD/CAD has been trading downside during the Asia session and the price tested the level of 1.3637. Anyway, I see potential for the upside continuation of the bigger upside trend. Trading recommendation: Due to the strong upside movement.in the background, I see upside continuation. Watch for the potential buying opportunities on the dips wit hteh upside objective at the price of 1.3790. Oscillator is showing bullish divergence and fresh bull cross, which is good sign for further upside movement. Key support is set at the price of 1.3635   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294380

The US dollar is under some pressure on Tuesday morning, which can be attributed to the dollar's local profit-taking after substantial gains on previous days. European equities and US index futures are also getting some relief, pulling back from lows. Read next: GBP/USD Is Expected To Trade Between 1.07 And 1.09 Today. Could British Pound Touch 1.0350 In Next Month? Fed And ECB Members Speak Today| FXMAG.COM The dollar has been in increasing demand in recent months, as comments from the Fed are methodically pushing higher the expected interest rate ceiling and for longer However, until we see a change in the fundamentals, bounces like today's are likely to be nothing more than local retracements of established trends - bullish for the dollar and bearish for equities. There is little doubt in the markets now that the main driving force behind the markets is the continuing tightening of current and, most notably, expected conditions. The dollar has been in increasing demand in recent months, as comments from the Fed are methodically pushing higher the expected interest rate ceiling and for longer. Not all major central banks have the ability or the courage to maintain the same pace, which is taking the dollar's main competitors out of the game. But these same conditions require regulators to act more aggressively. Last week, Japan began its interventions to defend the yen exchange rate. The Swiss National Bank has repeatedly warned that it is ready to intervene. Observers have also demanded action from the Bank of England. But the latter has yet to budge, taking a week to assess the situation. In the words of the ECB officials, there is more and more evident dissatisfaction with the ongoing weakening of the euro. Because a sharp rise in interest rates in over-leveraged economies may come as a shock, the central bank may intervene to stop the unilateral weakening of national currencies. Right now, it seems unlikely that the major central banks would be willing to press on the dollar in a coordinated way as they did in 1985 with the secretly prepared so-called Plaza Accord. It hardly fits with US priorities to lower inflation and weaker commodity prices. At the same time, there are increasing risks that the major central banks, one by one and acting on the situation, may use this almost forgotten instrument to stop unilateral speculation against their currencies. Among the other majors, the GBP has the highest currency intervention risks right now, with EUR and CHF slightly less so In our view, since last week and for the foreseeable future, Japan has already included interventions in its active policy, potentially limiting the USDJPY from rising above 145. It is unlikely to be an easy ride for Japan's Ministry of Finance, but it has the strength to fight back. Among the other majors, the GBP has the highest currency intervention risks right now, with EUR and CHF slightly less so. In Canada and China, the monetary authorities are not concerned about the exchange rate, as inflation is slowing down there. Hence, it is unlikely that we will see interventions in the CAD and the CNY. Although the Australian dollar has lost 6% since the beginning of the month, it is now 18% above the 2020 'bottom', so in our view, monetary authorities can use traditional rate hikes and quantitative tightening for now.

Summary:  The Bank of England’s response to the downdraft in sterling since late last week was rather lacking, as the bank merely indicated it will address the situation at the next regularly scheduled meeting. They may not have that luxury unless this brightening of global risk sentiment that has materialized overnight has legs. Elsewhere, traders continue to steer clear of challenging Japan’s Ministry of Finance on intervention despite a fresh surge in US treasury yields yesterday. FX Trading focus: Bank of England response to sterling crisis rather muted, but a broad sentiment shift might keep them off the hook near term. The Bank of England’s response yesterday to the enormous downdraft in sterling was not as dramatic as those looking for a kneejerk hike this week might have expected. The Bank issued a short statement, which merely indicated that it is aware of what the government is doing and will take that and sterling’s moves into consideration at the next regularly scheduled meeting on November 3. Perhaps the phrase that it “will not hesitate to change interest rates by as much as needed to return inflation to the 2% target” that saved sterling from a further pounding just yet. There are two ways to look at this: the BoE doesn’t want to be seen as panicking and jerked around by market developments. On the other hand, it would have been more hawkish to avoid mention of the next regularly scheduled meeting to suggest that we might infer a rate hike is possible at any time if the sterling volatility worsens again. In support of sterling, the overall rate expectation for the November 3 meeting remains pinned just below 150 basis points this morning, a very large rate hike indeed when your policy rate is 2.25%. We may not have seen the cycle low in sterling, but in the nearest term, a rally in risk sentiment can keep sterling in consolidation mode tactically after the trauma of the last couple of sessions. Chart: USDCADRemarkable to see USDCAD extending the rally yesterday at an even more rapid pace than the one established over the last couple of weeks, the kind of price action one often associates with at least a temporary climax in the trend. A fresh sell-off in oil prices added to the pressure on CAD and NOK as well. But that trend has extended so far and so quickly that the USDCAD pair can easily retrace to 1.3500 without meaningfully softening the up-surge, and today’s price action suggesting we may avoid a correction even to that level. Since the early 2000’s, USDCAD has only traded above yesterday’s 1.3800+ highs on two occasions – for a couple of months when oil collapsed during the pandemic outbreak in the spring of 2020 and during a short episode during the USD peak of late 2015/early 2016. The coming recession may prove more vicious in Canada relative to the US, given very elevated private debt levels in Canada, much of it associated with housing. Mortgage financing is generally 25 year mortgages that roll every 5 years. That 5-year mortgage rate has risen to levels similar to the US 30-year rate around/above 6%. In the US, the vast majority of mortgages are 30-year fixed, meaning no real impact for most homeowners who are staying put with existing mortgages, but a far faster and greater impact on Canadian mortgage holders who must roll to the new and suddenly vastly higher rates. As discussed in this morning’s Saxo Market Call podcast, it will be very interesting to watch the evolution in the US Consumer Confidence survey of the spread between the Present Situation and Expectations components, which reached their lowest levels since 2001 in July. The latest September survey is up today. Typically this spread bottoms out and is rising quickly as the US economy is tilting into recession. As this survey is historically closely correlated with the labor market, any rise in the spread would likely be preceded by a couple of months of clearly rising jobless claims. On that front, we hit record lows in claims (adj. for population) back in March, followed by a significant surge into July. Since then, the lower claims suggest a still-strong labor market, but another turn and rise above a 250k weekly run puts us on a countdown toward a recession and peak Fed tightening expectations. We are likely at an inflection point in Q4 as the real wear on the economy from policy tightening is picking up pace, given the 9-12 month lag of policy, which may be more compressed this time given the vicious pace of the tightening once it got underway. It’s remarkable to recall that the Fed only achieved lift-off from effective zero in March, with treasury yields beginning to surge, however, already in late 2021 and accelerating higher in January. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.Nothing much new here, but the readings are extreme in USD strength and GBP weakness, while development around the edges are interesting, including whether the broad JPY bounceback can hold and the degree of relative weakness in CNH as the key 7.20 level approaches in USDCNH and the jockeying amongst the G-10 smalls. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.NOKSEK is pressing on a major level at 1.0500 as cratering oil prices and crazy messaging from the Norges Bank have NOK under pressure – crazy volatility in today’s session, by the way. Elsewhere, note the pump and reversal in AUDNZD – was that at least a temporary top for now there? Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1100 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Pill to speak 1100 – ECB's Villeroy to speak 1130 – Fed Chair Powell to speak on digital currencies 1230 – US Aug. Preliminary Durable Goods Orders  1300 – US Jul. S&P CoreLogic Home Prices 1355 – US Fed’s Bullard (voter 2022) to speak 1400 – US Sep. Consumer Confidence 1400 – US Aug. New Home Sales 1700 – US 5-year Treasury Auction 1700 – US Fed’s Kashkari (voter 2023) to speak 2350 – Japan Bank of Japan meeting minutes 0130 – Australia Aug. Retail Sales    Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-boe-response-rather-muted-but-big-hikes-still-baked-in-27092022

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through 114.10 during the New York session on Monday before finding resistance again. The index slippped lower and is seen to be trading close to the 113.40 mark at this point in writing. Prices oscillated within the range of 113.00-114.00 in the last 24 hours, thus raising probabilities for a drop towards 110.00. The hourly chart presented here also projects a potential drag towards the 110.00-20 mark, the initial support level. Immediate resistance or a top is seen at 114.35 and prices should stay lower to keep the bearish structure intact. A break below 112.90 from here will accelerate a further decline towards 111.90 in the near term. Going further, a real drop below the 110.17 initial support will confirm that bears are back in control and a deeper correction could be on its way. Only a consistent break above the 114.35 mark from here will bring back bulls into control and nullify the bearish scenario. Watching for prices to break below 112.90 for acceleration lower towards 110.20. Trading plan: Preparing for a potential drop towards 110.20 against 114.50 Good luck!     Relevance up to 12:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294414

  As of writing, the dollar index (CFD #USDX) is trading near 113.55, down from yesterday's new local high near 114.41. The dollar's upward trend continues, pushing the DXY to new highs on its way to over 20-year highs near 120.00, 121.00. The break of yesterday's local high at 114.41 will be a confirmation signal of our assumption.     Alternatively, the very first signal for short-term selling will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 113.12 (200 EMA on the 15-minute CFD #USDX chart). The target is the important short-term support level 111.42 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart). Its breakdown, in turn, may provoke a deeper correction to the support levels of 109.40 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 108.75 (50 EMA and the lower line of the rising channel on the daily chart). However, once again we note that this is an alternative and theoretically possible scenario.     Strong bullish momentum prevails based on fundamental factors, favoring long positions. Support levels: 113.12, 111.42, 110.76, 109.40, 108.75, 105.00, 103.35 Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.41, 115.00 Trading Tips Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 114.30. Take-Profit 111.42, 110.76, 109.40, 108.75, 105.00, 103.35 Buy Stop 114.30. Stop-Loss 112.90. Take-Profit 114.41, 115.00, 116.00, 120.00 Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322778

You can't complain about volatility lately, looking at the traditional financial markets. Both stock indexes and currencies may have seen increased volatility, not to mention the bond market. Bitcoin to the dollar It would seem that a dollar hitting consecutive 20-year peaks, indexes deepening the bottom of a bear market, or rampant bond yields would be an environment in which cryptocurrencies could significantly fall. For the moment, however, this has not happened. On the contrary, despite the downswing in stock markets and a more expensive dollar or higher bond yields than at least a week ago, bitcoin seems to be gaining against the USD. Can the world's largest cryptocurrency provide an alternative in these times? Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTCUSD, H4 Bitcoin an alternative in a currency crisis? Since the beginning of this year, the Japanese yen and the British pound have lost more than 20 percent against the U.S. dollar. The euro has lost more than 15 percent against the USD, and the New Zealand dollar more than 16 percent. We are talking about some of the world's most important currencies and a period of less than 10 months. In the long term, the losses of individual currencies seem to be even greater. From this perspective, the market is beginning to talk about a possible currency crisis, as well as new resolutions, or an increase in the chances of joint intervention against the strength of the USD. Whether this would happen is a separate topic, but if the major currencies are losing value so significantly, the question is whether bitcoin will be able to play the role of an asset, to store the value of money over time. Additionally, Americans may have an even bigger problem than other countries. While investors from Europe or Asia were able to buy USD with their local currency and could possibly benefit from a change in the exchange rate, Americans seem that they did not have such an opportunity. U.S. investors, what they would touch this year, they could lose on. Foreign currencies against the USD weakened, the stock market fell, together with bonds and gold in USD. There seems to be no place where, owning dollars and being in the US, someone could store capital so that it is not devoured by inflation (except for short positions in the aforementioned markets). While this is a far-fetched thesis, it is worth recalling that bitcoin could have been a response to the ineptitude of government, supervision and the central bank, leading the US economy to collapse through the real estate crisis. Today, citizens' wealth may also be at risk. Inflation, high interest rates (but not so high that they yield interest over inflation), an economic slowdown or recession, or poor prospects for recovery. Perhaps when the situation is already very bad in the markets and in the economy (according to forecasts, this could be the case in 2023), bitcoin could attract capital to store it over time, because here the rules about money creation are very clear and known in advance for decades ahead, unlike the actions of central banks. Did you know that CFDs allow you to trade on both falling and rising prices? CFDs allow you to open buy and sell positions, and thus invest when quotes rise as well as fall. At Conotoxia, you can choose from CFDs on more than 5,000 financial instruments, including more than 140 CFDs on cryptocurrencies. Wanting to find a CFD on the cryptocurrency of your choice, all you need to do is follow 4 simple steps: To access Trading Universe - a state-of-the-art center for financial, information, investment and social products and services with a single Smart account, register here. Click "Platforms" in the "Invest&Forex" section. Choose one of the accounts: demo or live On the MT5 or cTrader platform, search for the CFD cryptocurrency you are looking for and drag it to the chart window. Use the one-click trading option or open a new order with the right mouse button. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Read more on Conotoxia

Technical analysis: USD/CAD has been trading upside as I expected and the price has reached the first upside objective at the price of 1.3780. Anyway, I see potential for further upside movement due to the strong upside momentum. Trading recommendation: Due to the strong upside pressure in the background and rejection of the rising trend-line, I see potential for further rally. Watch for the potential buying opportunities on the intraday dips with the upside objective at the price of 1.3850 and 1.3900. MACD oscillator is showing fresh upside momentum, which is strong sign that buyers are in control. Key support is set at the price of 1.3625   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294538

Summary:  Today, a look at the US 10-year Treasury benchmark reaching the 4.0% milestone for the first time for this cycle after a remarkable surge in yields in recent weeks. It's worth considering the 1987 experience of bond markets flip-flopping in their correlation with equities and whether we could be set for a similar flip-flop if risk sentiment worsens further. Also, note that many speculative corners of the market were bid yesterday even as the action soured late and worsened still overnight as the US dollar continued surging - especially against the Chinese yuan overnight. Much more on today's pod, which is a solo flight with John J. Hardy hosting. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-sep-28-2022-28092022

Hello, dear colleagues. The main event in September was an increase in the federal funds rate by 0.75%. Commenting on this decision, adopted unanimously, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the US central bank is ready to continue raising rates until inflation starts to decline and the Committee receives data on the sustainability of the decline in inflation expectations. A few days later it became clear that the decision taken by the Open Market Committee could lead to serious, if not catastrophic, consequences for the entire global financial system and its most important element — the FOREX market. Before discussing the prospects of foreign currencies against the US dollar, let's discuss why a rate hike leads to a rise in the dollar and a decrease in the rates of its competitors? The answer to this question lies in one of the fundamental laws of the foreign exchange market — the Interest Rate Parity Theorem. The essence of the theorem is that assets with the same credit risk will be more attractive in the currency of the state where the rate is higher. In this case, investors will sell the currency with lower rates and buy the currency with higher rates in order to receive a large premium for their investment. Figure 1: The US dollar exchange rate against a basket of foreign currencies The increase in the dollar rate primarily hit currencies with low rates, including, first of all, the euro, the yen and the British pound, and this is the flip side of the US dollar. Moreover, if the yen and the pound have limited influence, then the euro is the second most important reserve currency in the world. The economic problems associated with rising energy prices have further aggravated the situation in the eurozone economy, and the slowness of the European Central Bank has led to the fact that the difference in interest rates has become large enough for a massive outflow of capital from Europe. This has become especially relevant for energy-dependent industries, such as metallurgical companies and aluminum production. At the same time, the situation in the British pound and the Japanese yen is no better than that of the euro, and even worse in some ways. The British pound updated the historical low on September 26. The yen updated the 30-year low a little earlier. There is another circumstance that puts pressure on exchange rates, this is the decline of the US stock market, which adds an additional growth driver to the dollar. Thus, the dollar is at the peak of its power in relation to the currencies of the bloc. The Chinese yuan is also under pressure, although much less than the nearest US satellites. This week, the yuan has updated the low and is now trading at 7.14 yuan per dollar, but the level of 8 yuan per dollar, the low from 2006, is still far away. The depreciation of the yuan is rather a forced measure in response to the decline in the currency of the main competitor in the Asia-Pacific region — the Japanese yen. Further narration requires answering the question of how high the US dollar can grow, and whether it is worth selling it against other currencies now. First of all, it should be noted that the dollar's growth is not over yet, although it has achieved its initial goals. At the same time, it should be remembered that the movement never develops in a straight line, and the dollar has now turned out to be sufficiently overbought to make a correction to its rising trend from a technical point of view, which will give us the opportunity to consider buying it, if, of course, there is a desire and, most importantly, a signal from the trading system. However, in the context of what is happening, a very significant reservation should be made. Even if we assume that the US dollar has reached its high, it will take at least three months to reverse it. Now the ECB and the Bank of England have rushed after the Fed, trying to somehow stop the inflationary spiral. However, it is not so easy to do this, given the pace set by the US Fed, and it takes time. The chronology of events can be presented as follows. The Fed will raise the rate at least once more at its next meeting, which will be held on November 1 and 2, by 0.75% points. Before this event, the ECB will also raise the rate by 0.75% at the end of October, thereby keeping the difference in rates between the euro and the dollar at the current value. Of course, the ECB may surprise and raise the rate by 1% at once, but then we will know about it in advance from the comments of officials, but now such an increase looks unlikely. Based on the logic of this assumption, it is safe to say that at least until the end of October 2022, the euro's exchange rate will not change its direction and may continue to decline. Fig.2: Technical picture of the euro/US dollar exchange rate The technical picture of the EURUSD exchange rate assumes a similar dynamics and now completely coincides with the fundamental calculations (Fig.2). The euro is in a downward trend. At the same time, the exchange rate reached the first target, located at 0.96, which was determined by the width of the previous range of 0.99-1.02, 300 points. It is logical to assume that after achieving the first goal, the course will grow a bit, or, in other words, go into correction. The main postulate of technical analysis is the rule: the movement will continue until we get the opposite. This means that we need to assume that the exchange rate of the euro will decline until the condition of a trend change is met. For the current situation, the condition for a trend change is an increase above the 1.02 level, before that, any increase in the EURUSD rate should be considered as a correction to the current downward trend. Fig.3: Technical picture of the USDJPY course In my subjective opinion, the situation in the Japanese yen is even sadder than with the euro. The Bank of Japan remains the only key central bank that has abandoned the policy of raising rates. This has a rather serious impact on the yen exchange rate, which leads to the fact that the BOJ, under pressure from allies dissatisfied with the devaluation, is even forced to intervene. However, this does not help much and may lead to the fact that the Japanese currency will test the level of 150 and even 155 yen per US dollar (Fig.3). Therefore, if any feeling that you take for intuition suggests that you sell the USDJPY pair here and now, then throw this thought out of your head. It will not lead to anything good. It will be possible to do this no earlier than the pair drops below the 140 level, and even then with great caution and a minimum lot size. With the British pound, everything is somewhat more complicated. The fact is that the BoE began to raise the rate earlier than the ECB began to do it, besides, the maintenance of the national currency rate is written in its charter. Previously, if necessary, the central bank did not disdain to resort to interventions, including not only verbal ones. Therefore, I wouldn't guess the depths at the level of parity of the pound and the dollar, although such a decline looks quite likely. Summing up, it should be noted that the US dollar continues to remain in an upward trend, supported by high interest rates and a decline in stock indices. The S&P 500 index updated the local low on Tuesday, September 27. The previous level was at 3631. If the month, quarter and fiscal year are closed below the 3600 mark, the fate of the US market in the 4th quarter will be very sad. With a high degree of probability, of course. Be careful, cautious and most importantly — follow the rules of money management!   Relevance up to 20:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322832

The USD/CAD pair plunged yesterday as the Dollar Index crashed after registering a strong leg higher. The price maintains a bullish bias despite a temporary correction. It could come back to test and retest the near-term obstacles trying to attract more buyers and accumulate more bullish energy. The pair was trading at 1.3656 at the writing above 1.3602 yesterday's low. Fundamentally, the pair crashed also after the US Pending Home Sales and the Prelim Wholesale Inventories came in worse than expected yesterday. Today, the Canadian GDP is expected to report a 0.1% drop, while the US Final GDP could register a 0.6% drop. The economic data could be decisive in the short term. The US Unemployment Claims indicator is expected to jump from 213K to 215K in the last week. USD/CAD Up-Channel! USD/CAD failed to stabilize below the broken uptrend line and under the median line (ml) signaling exhausted sellers. Poor Canadian data and better-than-expected US figures could increase the rate. The 1.3639 and 1.3602 levels represent downside obstacles. The false breakout through the channel's upside line technically announced a sell-off. USD/CAD Forecast! A new lower low, dropping and closing below 1.3602 activates more declines and brings short opportunities. On the other hand, by staying above the uptrend line and beyond 1.3639, the USD/CD pair may develop a new bullish momentum towards the R1 (1.3720) and up to the upper median line (uml).   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294745

We talked about the situation on the DXY index a little more than two weeks ago. Apparently, its internal structure shows the completion of the global corrective trend, which took the form of a triple zigzag consisting of five main cycle waves w-x-y-x-z. It is possible that the market has now begun the formation of the initial part of a new bearish trend. It is assumed that the bears are starting to build the first impulse sub-wave of the potential standard zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸. The end of the impulse â’¶ is possible at a minimum of 107.67, which is marked by a minuette fourth correction. An approximate scheme of possible future movement is shown on the chart. However, another option is also possible, in which the formation of a cycle triple zigzag is not yet fully completed. Most likely, at the level of 104.60, the bearish cycle wave x was completed, which took the form of a standard zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸ of the primary degree. After that, an upward impulse price movement in the wave z began. The wave z may take the form of a zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸, where the first impulse and correction are already completed. The entire wave z may complete its pattern near 119.56. At that level, it will be at the 76.4% Fibonacci extension of wave y.

The Bank of England (BoE) jumped in the UK’s shattered sovereign market to buy long-term UK bonds yesterday, because apparently, they have been warned that collateral calls on Wednesday afternoon could force investors to further dump their UK sovereign holdings. And the UK could no longer afford another heavy selloff wave on its sovereigns. Will the enthusiasm last?  The British 10-year yield fell 10% yesterday, and the pound jumped past the 1.08 mark against the US dollar and consolidated below 0.90 against the euro. The FTSE recovered early losses and closed the session 0.30% higher, gold recovered to $1662 an ounce, American crude rallied past the $80 per barrel, also boosted by the Hurricane Ian’s negative impact on supply. Around 11% of the Gulf of Mexico production was halted due to the storm.The S&P500 gained almost 2% yesterday to above 3700 level, while Nasdaq jumped more than 2%. Will the enthusiasm last? Not so sure. Yesterday’s price action was a sugar rush, triggered by the BoE intervention. Enthusiasm will likely fall as the level of blood sugar falls across the financial markets. Amazon is on the rise Amazon jumped 3% as investors liked the new devices at Wednesday’s annual device event, and Apple slipped on announcement that it will, finally, not produce more iPhones compared to last years.In Europe, all eyes are on Porsche that starts flying with its own wings today! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 BoE finally jumps in 3:24 BoE intervention boosts risk appetite, but for how long? 5:30 Amazon convinces, Apple disappoints 8:54 Porsche is now up for grab! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #BoE #intervention #UK #gilt #GBP #Hurricane #Ian #crude #oil #energy #crisis #XAU #FTSE #sovereign #bonds #rally #Apple #Amazon #Porsche #IPO #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Events in the UK yesterday marked the first time this stagflationary macro environment risked evolving into a financial crisis. Fortunately, the Bank of England intervened aggressively in the Gilt market and market conditions have temporarily stabilised. However, there will be no room for complacency this autumn as volatility returns to 2020 highs USD: Trying to avoid a crisis Traded levels of volatility continue to rise in FX and debt markets. Remember these represent expected levels of volatility and are really being driven by the big swings we are seeing in spot FX and bond yields. Interestingly, equity volatility is a lot more subdued with perhaps equity investors already defensively positioned for late-cycle equity losses.   So far, this stagflationary environment and the aggressive response from central bankers - especially the Federal Reserve - have seen financial assets adjust as one would expect at this stage in the economic cycle. Up until recently, conditions in FX and debt markets had been reasonably orderly and there was no hint of financial stress in the system. Sadly the same could not be said of frontier markets, where the likes of Sri Lanka defaulted earlier this year.   Yesterday, however, saw the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee take the decision to break the 'doom loop' at the long end of the UK Gilt market as margin calls on pension funds and the need to raise cash risked a downward spiral for long-dated Gilts. In effect, this is the first big intervention from a G10 central bank in this cycle to avert a financial crisis. It may not be the last. It serves as a reminder to policymakers around the world that any perceptions by the market of a policy misstep will be heavily punished. And with the Fed to keep hiking into a slowdown - probably taking rates to the 4.25/4.50% area into 1Q23 - these conditions may well be with us for the next six to nine months. What does this all mean for FX? The dollar will continue to be favoured - especially if it is soon to be paying 4% on deposits. And tighter liquidity conditions as central banks battle inflation around the world mean still higher levels of FX volatility. This will discourage a return to carry trade strategies meaning that high-yielding FX and commodity currencies will not be given the benefit of the doubt. We, therefore, continue to favour defensive strategies in FX - which means backing the dollar and looking for the Swiss franc to outperform in Europe as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) guides it higher.   Out of interest as well, the US trade balance has narrowed back to levels last seen in October 2021 - meaning that the dollar's Achilles Heel - the trade deficit - does not look as vulnerable as it could. Expect there to remain strong demand for the dollar on dips - e.g in the 112.50/113.00 area for DXY. Chris Turner EUR: Gearing up for new highs in inflation Beyond geopolitics, the short term focus in the eurozone is on inflation - where the September readings (Germany today, eurozone tomorrow) should mark new highs. The European Central Bank (ECB) is talking tough and will probably deliver on the 75bp of hikes expected for the 27 October meeting. We doubt this provides much support for the euro, however. 0.9500 has proved a good support area for EUR/USD after all and the BoE action did provide a brief reprieve to non-dollar currencies across the board. But we see nothing yet to reverse this powerful underlying downtrend in EUR/USD and expect any rallies above 0.97 to prove brief. Chris Turner GBP: Cable gets a reprieve Aggressive BoE intervention in the UK Gilt market was firmly in the realms of financial stability and we would overlook the hyperbole of 'fiscal dominance' or 'monetary financing here. This was a necessary, temporary intervention to ensure the orderly function of the UK Gilt market - which our debt strategists describe as the 'bedrock' of the UK banking industry. Yet there is only so much the BoE can do to support cable, since we think FX intervention and emergency rate hikes are not on the table. And we see no change in the strong dollar story over the next six to nine months. Instead, expect cable volatility to stay high (one week realised volatility is a staggering 34%) and be beholden to any fiscal updates. As we have been saying recently, trying to hold sterling together until the 3 November BoE rate meeting or 23 November fiscal update will be a tough challenge for policymakers. As we said in our reaction piece yesterday, we doubt cable holds gains to 1.08/1.09 and the bias has got to be for a 1.0350/1.0500 retest. Chris Turner CEE: CNB confirms end of hiking cycle At today's Czech National Bank (CNB) meeting, we expect rates to be unchanged in line with surveys and market expectations. The main news in our view will be the confirmation of an end to the hiking cycle. We cannot expect a new central bank forecast today, but as always, we will see the governor's press conference. We expect the topic of FX intervention and the long-term level of interest rates, or the timing of the first rate cut, to be addressed. However, the CNB will mainly want to present unchanged rates as stability in uncertain times. From an FX perspective, it is evident from last week's data that the CNB has returned to the market for the first time since the August meeting, but intervention volumes have so far been minimal. We believe that part of the market is betting on an end to CNB intervention or a change in the central bank's approach again. However, we do not expect any change and so we can see them closing short CZK positions after the meeting, resulting in a stronger koruna. In the rest of CEE, Tuesday's jump in the gas price translated to FX yesterday, as we expected, with the Polish zloty generating a loss of 0.4% and the Hungarian forint 1.5%. In Hungary, the move was supported by a further drop in market rates as a result of Tuesday's National Bank of Hungary decision. Unless we see a further rise in gas prices, we believe the forint has already taken its losses and should stabilise around EUR/HUF 412. The Polish zloty, on the other hand, still has room to move closer to 4.82 EUR/PLN. Moreover, in our view, the market is still too hawkish on Polish rates. However, Friday's inflation release from Poland will be crucial in this sense. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Stock markets in Europe and North America bounced back on Wednesday, thanks to growing demand for US Treasuries, which put pressure on their yields and dollar. There were no special reasons for growth, but the closing of short positions after a multi-day sell-off helped the markets recover the previous losses. However, the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed pointed to a continued increase in interest rates in the foreseeable future, so stock futures started to decline again today. Minutes ahead of the European trading session, the yield on 10-year bonds grew by 3.15% to 3.824%, while futures fell from 0.36% to 0.70%. This is a strong bearish signal for the equity markets and a significant support factor for dollar. Due out today is Germany's data on consumer inflation and revised US GDP figures for the second quarter. Forecasts say the former will rise to 1.3% m/m and 9.4% y/y, which will prompt the ECB to raise rates again by 0.75%. But this is unlikely to stimulate a strong growth in euro as the currency is affected by the current economic situation in the Eurozone. The latter, meanwhile, is expected to show a slight decrease to -0.6%, but a much larger fall will put pressure on market sentiment, which will increase the sale of stocks and purchases of dollar. Forecasts for today: USD/CAD The pair is currently testing the level of 1.3715. If it rises above it, further growth to 1.3835 is possible, especially amid a decline in crude oil prices and general negative dynamics in the markets. USD/JPY The pair is currently testing the resistance level of 145.00. If it rises above it, further growth to 146.00 is possible, especially amid a general negative dynamics in the markets and resumption of growth in the yield of US Treasuries.   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323002

The Canadian dollar continues to show sharp volatility this week. USD/CAD has jumped 0.65% today and is trading at 1.3693. We are seeing significant volatility in the currency markets this week, with weaker risk appetite propelling the US dollar higher. The Canadian dollar been hit by the double whammy of an aggressive Federal Reserve and an escalation in the war in Ukraine which has dampened risk appetite. It has been a miserable September for the Canadian dollar, as USD/CAD has climbed 4.5%. There are additional headwinds for the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada has led the way with a fast pace of tightening, raising its benchmark rate to 3.25%. The Federal Reserve has caught up with last week’s 0.75% hike, and the markets are pricing in a higher terminal rate for the US than for Canada (4.60% vs. 4.10%). This means that the Canadian dollar will not benefit from a higher interest rate differential, and Canadian bond yields have fallen below US Treasuries. As well, Canada is a major oil exporter and the drop in the price of oil is weighing on the Canadian dollar. We are already seeing a sharp drop in long positions in the Canadian dollar, and that trend could continue. Markets brace for decline in GDP Canada releases the July GDP report later today. The economy is showing little movement and gained a negligible 0.1% in June. The consensus for July is a decline of 0.1%. A sharper drop than expected could sour investors on the Canadian economy and extend the Canadian dollar’s losses. . USD/CAD Technical USD is testing resistance at 1.3725. The next resistance line is 1.3862 There is support at 1.3477 and 1.3340 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Today, the dollar is recovering its positions in the foreign exchange market after yesterday's fall. The Bank of England said it would make temporary purchases of UK government bonds with long maturities "to restore orderly market conditions." As part of the announced bond purchase program, the Bank of England will buy bonds with a maturity of more than 20 years: "initially, bonds worth up to 5 billion pounds will be bought at one auction." On Wednesday, the Bank of England said it had purchased £1.025 billion worth of bonds. "Subsequent auctions will be held every business day from 13:15 to 14:45 (GMT) through October 14." As a result of Wednesday's intervention to buy bonds by the Bank of England, the yields of European and US government bonds fell sharply. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury fell from 4.01% to 3.73%, rolling back from multi-year highs by 7.5%. Against the backdrop of falling yields on US government bonds, the dollar fell sharply on Wednesday. Its DXY index lost more than 1%, dropping from an earlier new local 20-year high of 114.74 to 112.50. Today, the markets are gradually calming down and "recovering" after yesterday's storm. The dollar, as we noted above, is recovering its positions, and its DXY index is near 113.25 as of this writing, while 10-year US Treasury yields is also growing again, which, in turn, is facilitated by the tough policy of the Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday that the base case for now is a 75 bps rate hike in November and a 50 bps hike in December. In his opinion, the lack of progress in curbing inflation means that by the end of the year, the Fed will have to set rates in the range 4.25%–4.5%. The Fed's super-tight monetary policy cycle is an undeniably strong positive fundamental factor for the dollar. As for the pound, the new policy announced yesterday by the Bank of England on the purchase of government bonds is "mixed" news for it, economists say. By buying bonds, the BoE actually suspended the planned quantitative tightening (QT). As you know, interest rate cuts and quantitative easing (purchases on the government bond market) are one of the main instruments of the central banks' monetary policy, as a result of which the quotes of the national currency, as a rule, are declining. Given yesterday's sharp rise in government bonds, the fall in dollar quotes and the fact that the Bank of England intends to conduct large-scale purchases of government bonds daily until October 14, regular bursts of volatility in financial markets are likely during the time period announced by the BoE (from 13:15 to 14:45 GMT ). Today also (at the beginning of the American trading session), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the final data on GDP growth for the 2nd quarter, and the U.S. Department of Labor will present the data on weekly jobless claims. This will also affect the dollar quotes and cause volatility in the market, especially if the data differs greatly from the forecast values.   As of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.0863, remaining in the zone of both short-term (below resistance levels 1.0998, 1.1438) and long-term (below resistance levels 1.2165, 1.2380) bear markets. Relevance up to 12:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323028

Summary:  While the Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying has propped up the sterling recently, there are hardly any reasons to turn positive on UK assets in general unless the government changes course on its fiscal policy roadmap. In fact, Japanese authorities remain better placed to defend their currency than the UK, given their better reserves position. While UK’s pain is self-inflicted, the overarching theme of tighter global liquidity conditions continues to pose threats of wider market disruptions. The Fed’s aggressive monetary policy tightening and the unrelenting surge in the US dollar this year is now tightening global financial conditions, with effects reverberating through global financial markets. Still, the degree to which this can be blamed for what is happening in the UK remains under the scanner. Despite the Fed tightening remaining an overarching theme, UK’s pain is largely self-inflicted. While bond buying by the Bank of England (BOE) is somewhat on the lines of what the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been, the motives are completely different and the impact is likely to vary as well from here. The motives BoJ’s wider bond-buying operations are a reflection of its desire to stoke inflation. Japan’s headline inflation has averaged under 1% in the last two decades with the core print being in negative territory. The latest print for August was 3%, above the BOJ’s 2% goal, but wage pressures still remain subdued. UK’s inflation, on the contrary, is running at nearly three times that, and the BOE’s plan to begin purchasing long-dated gilts was a forced emergency measure to support pension funds that may be on the verge of a default due to the jump in gilt yields stemming from fiscal concerns after the announcement of the new government’s mini-budget. The vulnerabilities Japan’s fiscal and current account are also not in great shape, and it has a huge foreign debt. But it has huge FX reserves of the order of over $1.2 trillion as of end-August. This equates to 20% of GDP and over 18 months of import cover. Of this, about $136bn is deposits with foreign central banks that can be used immediately to intervene. So, while the Japanese yen remains vulnerable due to its twin deficits and high debt levels, the huge FX war chest still gives Japanese authorities some ammunition to intervene against excessive pace of yen decline. Meanwhile, UK’s problem is not just in its high inflation but also its twin deficits and weak FX reserves position. Foreign currency debt levels in the UK are more contained, however, and that may be one of the reasons why FX reserves are low. As we noted in a previous piece, UK’s net forex reserves of $100bn are also enough to only cover two months of imports, or roughly equal to 3% of GDP as compared to Japan’s 20% and Switzerland’s 115%. This gives the UK policymakers less room to prop up the sterling. Threats to Sterling and UK assets Sterling has undoubtedly regained some strength since the massive selloff on the fiscal plan announcement. It has been ‘temporarily’ supported by the BOE’s bond purchase program, which has led to the global reprieve in yields. Also, the month-end/quarter-end rebalancing has possibly helped cap dollar gains after massive USD strength seen in the quarter. To be clear, BOE didn’t ‘pivot’, rather it acted as the lender of last resort for the domestic pension funds, and there is hardly anything to be bullish about, or turn positive on UK assets. The UK assets will likely continue to be pressured until the UK government remains in denial. Even an emergency rate hike, at this point, seems unlikely to be able to support the sterling or gilts, as it would signify panic and a divergence in fiscal and monetary policies, further weighing on general confidence in the economy and its policies. Meanwhile, markets are currently pricing in a close to 150bps rate hike from the BOE at the November 3 meeting. That’s massive, and will mean significant pain to the UK economy. Threat of global contagion The UK is becoming a major credit risk not only for GBP assets but also for the rest of the world, primarily the eurozone as my colleague Chris Dembik noted in his piece. We see some kind of contagion effect in the eurozone credit market. There’s also risk of more markets succumbing to evaporating liquidity, and it is inevitable to ponder over who could be next? The Chinese currency has also weakened dramatically lately, but the PBoC has numerous tools available and credit impulse in China is also turning positive. South Korea has already intervened to prop up its currency, and more economies are likely to follow that path if things continue like this. The G20 meetings on November 15-16 will be particularly important to watch not just for geopolitical updates, but also for possible collective concerns on the impact of global tightening and the strong dollar. Atleast until then, if not longer, there is not enough reason for the US Treasury to intervene to buoy the battered pound or yen or another faltering currency. Most US officials, including Treasury secretary Yellen, expressed no urgency to act. Wider market disruptions and increasing risks to global financial stability, beyond the financial turmoil emanating from Britain and Japan, therefore remain likely.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/macro-insights-bank-of-england-bank-of-japan-and-the-risks-of-wider-market-disruptions-30092022

USD/CAD gains traction for the second straight day, though lacks follow-through. Subdued crude oil prices undermine the loonie and act as a tailwind for the pair. Retreating US bond yields, a positive risk tone weighs on the USD and caps gains. The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buying in the vicinity of the mid-1.3600s and sticks to modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session. The pair maintains its bid tone for the second successive day and is currently trading just above the 1.3700 mark, well within this week's broader trading band. A combination of factors drags the US dollar to a one-week low, which, in turn, acts as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. The spill-over effect of the UK central bank's move to calm the markets drags the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note away from a 12-year high touched on Wednesday. Apart from this, a goodish recovery in the global risk sentiment further weighs on the safe-haven greenback. That said, subdued price action around crude oil prices undermines the commodity-linked loonie and continues to lend some support to the USD/CAD pair, at least for the time being. Worries that a deeper global economic downturn will dent fuel demand offset global supply concerns and fail to assist the black liquid to capitalize on this week's goodish recovery from the lowest level since January 2022. Furthermore, firming expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed should limit the fall in the US bond yields and favours the USD bulls. Investors seem convinced that the US central bank will hike interest rates at a faster pace to curb inflation. Hence, the focus remains on the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures. (PCE) - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Friday's US economic docket also features the release of the Chicago PMI and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The data, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will influence the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CAD pair. Traders will further take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities on the last day of the week

It was a terribly ugly day across the equity and bond markets yesterday. Despite the financial calamity, Porsche had a successful IPO and secured the valuation it was looking for, but the S&P500 plunged another 2% yesterday and wiped out the summer gains entirely. The same is true for Nasdaq. Nothing is left from the summer rally in the US stocks. Job cuts Apple dived more than 6% and closed the session almost 5% lower yesterday, after Bank of America downgraded the stock on worries of weaker consumer demand. Facebook’s Meta joined the others in announcing job cuts. But *unfortunately* for the Federal Reserve (Fed), the US jobless claims came below 200’000 last week. There are not enough people losing their jobs to stop the financial bleeding in the world. One interesting thing about yesterday’s price action was that... the US dollar sharply eased despite the hawkish messages thrown to our faces by the pitiless Fed members. The British pound recovered above the 1.11 mark against the US dollar yesterday. Could the pound rebound sustainably, or is this just a fake alert? Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 Porsche IPO went well, but… 4:20 Apple nosedived amid BoFA downgrade 6:47 Why did the US dollar ease? 8:42 Could sterling recover sustainably? Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #BoE #intervention #UK #gilt #GBP #EUR #USD #Fed #Apple #Meta #Porsche #IPO #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH    

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.71% to hit a 52-week low, the S&P 500 fell 1.51% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.51%. Shares of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated were among the leaders of gains among the components of the Dow Jones index today, which lost 3.79 points (0.74%) to close at 505.04. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc fell 0.15 points or 0.48% to close at 31.40. Dow Inc shed 0.23 points or 0.52% to close at 43.93. The drop leaders were Nike Inc shares, which lost 12.21 points or 12.81% to end the session at 83.12. Boeing Co was up 3.39% or 4.25 points to close at 121.08, while Walt Disney Company was down 3.20% or 3.12 points to close at 94. 33. Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Charles River Laboratories, which rose 3.57% to hit 196.80, Weyerhaeuser Company, which gained 2.92% to close at 28.56, and shares of Twitter Inc, which rose 2.74% to end the session at 43.91. The losers were shares of Carnival Corporation, which fell 23.31% to close at 7.03. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd lost 18.11% to end the session at 11.35. Quotes of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd decreased in price by 13.14% to 37.91. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were FingerMotion Inc, which rose 82.16% to hit 3.37, SAITECH Global Corp, which gained 43.36% to close at 3.24, and shares of Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which rose 39.03% to end the session at 10.08. The biggest losers were Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc, which shed 39.91% to close at 20.40. Shares of Aterian Inc lost 37.06% and ended the session at 1.24. Quotes of Edesa Biotech Inc decreased in price by 34.66% to 0.92. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1,758) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,354), while quotations of 117 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,139 companies fell in price, 1,583 rose, and 228 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.69% to 31.62. Gold futures for December delivery added 0.11%, or 1.80, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 1.87%, or 1.52, to $79.71 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.13%, or 1.86, to $85.32 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.08% to 0.98, while USD/JPY advanced 0.23% to hit 144.77. Futures on the USD index fell 0.09% to 112.10. Relevance up to 05:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295131

We've written a lot about the downturn in the housing market posing major risks for US economic activity, but the August personal income and spending report suggests the weakness is already broadening. With inflation pressures remaining intense we see the Fed hiking another 75bp in November, implying more economic pain to come Inflation ticks higher than expected In terms of today's US data flow, the Federal Reserve's favoured measure of inflation has come in higher than expected, which will keep the hawkish comments coming from Fed officials and reinforce expectations of a fourth consecutive 75bp interest rate hike on November 2nd. The August core personal consumer expenditure deflator rose 0.6%MoM/4.9%YoY (from an upwardly revised 4.7% year-on-year in July), above the consensus expectation of 0.5%/4.7%. This is a broader measure of inflation than the core CPI measure and we suspect it will stay close to these sorts of levels for another month or two. However, with inflation expectations numbers looking much softer and corporate pricing plans also heading lower (based on National Federation of Independent Business data in the chart below), we remain hopeful that a weakening growth environment will have the positive effect of taking some heat out of price inflation from early 2023. NFIB price plans & core PCE deflator YoY% Source: Macrobond, ING While consumer spending looks much weaker In addition to the inflation number, the monthly personal income and spending report is important for modelling US GDP growth forecasts. Consumer spending makes up around 70% of all economic activity in the US (versus, say 55-60% in most European economies). The monthly profile for US consumer spending is weaker than hoped in today's report with downward revisions to July real consumer spending (to -0.1% month-on-month from the initially reported +0.2% growth rate) while August spending came in at +0.1% MoM versus expectations of +0.2%. This is a surprise given high frequency people movement/restaurant diner/air passenger numbers and is not a great story for 3Q GDP at all. In fact it is so weak it could mean some analysts predicting a possible third consecutive negative GDP print. We think we will avoid it given a strong contribution from trade, business capex and inventory building, but with residential investment set to be a big drag and consumer spending seemingly flagging it isn't looking to be as strong as we would have liked. As such we are left with a  broader sense of a slowing growth trajectory, but with lingering inflation, which only implies more rate hikes and more economic pain to come. Read this article on THINK TagsUS Recession Inflation Consumer spending Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

We spent the weekend talking about whether Credit Suisse will finally go bust or not. The share price is down below 4 francs a share, and the credit default swaps are going through the roof. The 5-year CDS for Credit Suisse spiked to 250 from around 60 at the start of the year. It means that the market is aggressively pricing a default for one of the biggest Swiss banks. Is it possible? Yes, it is possible, but it is highly unlikely. A negative note Zooming out, the third quarter ends with losses, even though we thought that the summer rally could’ve given something. But no. The S&P500 finished the 3rd quarter having slipped to the lowest levels this year. The same is true for Nasdaq and the Dow Jones. $24 trillion have been wiped out of the stocks so far this year. And the last quarter begins with aggressive rate hike expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed), but also from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) to fight inflation and the dollar strength.Nike has been the latest company warning investors of falling profits due to mountains of stockpiles that they inherited from the pandemic times – and which brought the company to make nice price discounts -, and the strong dollar. Waiting for tesla reactions This week, we will watch how Tesla will react to the latest delivery report, the OPEC decision and the US jobs figures… and hope that this week’s jobs data doesn’t reveal strong job additions, and solid salary growth in the US. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:21 What will happen to Credit Suisse? 3:14 Q3 ends on a negative note… 5:36 USD strength to become a major headache for next earnings season 6:51 What to watch this week? Tesla deliveries, OPEC decision & US jobs 7:50 Econ101 minute: Why the Fed must destroy jobs to fight inflation?   Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #CreditSuisse #Q4 #Nike #earnings #strongUSD #USD #EUR #GBP #Tesla #OPEC #US #jobs #Fed #BoE #ECB #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The pound has reversed back to pre 'fiscal event' levels on news of a policy U-turn. A holiday in China this week might introduce slightly calmer conditions to FX markets, but prospects of another solid US jobs report on Friday should keep the dollar bid on dips USD: FX intervention can only slow, not reverse trends We are focusing on four points this morning. 1) The potential for OPEC+ supply cuts. 2) FX intervention from Japan and possibly China too. 3) The close first round elections result in Brazil and 4) the prospects for Friday's US jobs report. Media reports suggest OPEC+ (meeting Wednesday) will push for a 1mn barrel per day cut in production. Oil experts will have to tell us why the Saudis will want this, but suffice to say it seems President Biden's visit to the region this summer has failed to deliver the desired supply increases. Indeed, it is a strange period when OPEC+ may be looking at a large supply cut while the US is still selling strategic petroleum reserves. The prospects of an OPEC+ supply cut may offer some brief support to the beleaguered Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, but given a challenging risk environment, we doubt these high beta currencies can hold any near terms gains. Friday saw Japan announce that the central bank had bought close to US$20bn of yen in its intervention late last month. Remember this was the first yen buying since 1998. This will be the start of a campaign from Japanese authorities who can only hope to slow, not reverse the USD/JPY uptrend. Indeed, USD/JPY traded up above 145 again overnight and we should probably expect more intervention around these levels shortly. On the subject of intervention, China may well have intervened above 7.20 in USD/CNY last week. Unlike the Japanese, Chinese authorities do not report FX intervention activity. It is a holiday this week in China, so the 7.20 level may not be challenged again until next week. Sunday's Presidential vote in Brazil saw a much closer vote than expected. A run-off will be held between Lula and Bolsonaro on 30 October. Some are saying that Brazilian assets should rally on the news that Bolsonaro has a better chance of retaining power than initially thought. However, the much closer vote than expected leaves open the prospect of a disputed election outcome. As we have seen in the UK recently, the external environment is very unforgiving at the moment. And with reports of $70bn of portfolio flows having left emerging markets this year, another month of campaigning and the prospects of a close vote could see USD/BRL make a run at 5.60. Finally, the highlight of this week's US data calendar will be Friday's release of the September jobs report. Our team looks for a solid 200k increase in jobs and the unemployment rate staying low at 3.7% - both pointing to another 75bp hike from the Federal Reserve on 2 November.  DXY has corrected around 2.5% from its highs seen last week. We are in the camp favouring stronger levels later this year and feel that this correction under 122 will be short-lived. Chris Turner EUR: PMIs in focus Today will see the final September PMIs for the eurozone, with the manufacturing component expected to remain near 48.5, in contraction territory. News that OPEC+ wants to increase oil prices will not be welcomed across the region. Equally weekend reports suggest that what little remains of Russian gas exports to Europe may dwindle as well - e.g. Italy. As in the UK, the focus in the eurozone is also shifting to the size of fiscal support packages and whether local bond markets can easily digest them. EUR/USD is holding its gains from last week after the Bank of England stepped in to stabilise the Gilt market. One could argue that intervention (both FX from Asian authorities and in the bond market from UK authorities) is delivering this pause in the dollar's bull trend. But the macro factors which are driving it remain firmly in place and 0.9850/9870 could prove the limit to the current EUR/USD bounce. Favour a retest of 0.95 in October. Chris Turner GBP: Policy U-turn As we go to publication, GBP/USD is just enjoying another leg higher on reports that the Liz Truss government will formally reverse its planned abolishment of the 45% income tax bracket. Our UK team feels this move is rather symbolic, being less about the amount of money it will save (low billions) and more about the poor signal it had delivered of ideological (unfunded) tax cuts. The move looks driven by a backlash from her own party and perhaps the threat of a sovereign rating downgrade, where the S&P rating agency on Friday shifted the UK outlook to negative from stable in an unscheduled move. We will not be churlish here and say this will not affect the pound. Yet cable has today returned to levels seen just before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng delivered the infamous 'fiscal event' and it would now be hard to argue that cable should be trading much higher than that. But this does alleviate the risk of cable trading to parity in that it shows Downing Street will show greater respect to financial markets when considering policy options. Maybe we see a new cable trading range of something like 1.1000-1.1350. EUR/GBP may find support under 0.8700 now. Chris Turner CEE: Second-round of central bank decisions We start this week with PMIs across the region. In Poland and the Czech Republic, we expect further declines to new record lows since Covid levels. In Hungary, on the other hand, we expect a slight improvement. The Polish and Romanian central banks will meet on Wednesday, following the National Bank of Hungary and Czech National Bank last week. In Poland, we expect a 25bp rate hike to 7.0%, the same pace as in September, in line with surveys. However, inflation released on Friday surprised significantly to the upside and investors moved to the hawkish side of the market. In Romania, we expect a 50bp rate hike to 6.0%, in line with surveys. The central bank already slowed the pace of rate hikes in August, and we expect the same this week. Industrial production and retail sales data for August in the Czech Republic and Hungary will be released on Thursday and Friday. With the exception of Hungarian retail sales, we expect an improvement in year-on-year figures. However, the higher number of working days than last year is playing into the hands of both countries this time. On the FX side, this week we will continue to follow the gas story and the geopolitical situation. However, at the end of last week we saw gas prices fall again, EUR/USD higher and interest rate differentials rise across the region under pressure from weaker FX. Altogether, we think this week should lead to a calming of the situation and erase some of last week's losses. We see the Hungarian forint as the most undervalued at the moment. This week, the NBH will launch the previously introduced measures to withdraw excess liquidity from the market, which we believe will bring calm and the forint should return to 410 EUR/HUF. The Polish zloty from earlier in the week should benefit from the recent increase in rate differentials after Friday's CPI and return closer to 4.80 EUR/PLN. However, Wednesday's National Bank of Poland meeting should bring disappointment to the markets and leave the zloty in the current range. We expect the Czech koruna to return to the 24.60-70 EUR/CZK intervention band after the closing of short positions connected to the CNB meeting last week. In the second half of this week, we should see in the data how much the central bank spent last week when the koruna came under pressure for the first time since the August CNB meeting, which should tell us more about the sustainability of the current FX regime. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

DXY has dropped nearly 3.0% since last week's highs, as global risk sentiment recovered and ISM manufacturing numbers disappointed. Still, the medium-term story remains USD-positive in our view, also due to the grim outlook for Europe. The fiscal U-turn in the UK may not offer sustained support to the pound, while the RBA may keep hiking by 25bp from now on USD: Correction not very sustainable The dollar has remained in correction mode at the start of this week, with DXY now trading nearly 3.0% off its 28 September peak. In our view, this has not been accompanied by a radical change in the medium-term narrative that has backed the dollar rally so far: despite somewhat weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing figures yesterday, the US domestic story remains rather solid, leaving the Fed tightening prospects alive even if markets have recently revised the expected terminal rate to sub 4.50% levels. We see Friday’s payrolls report as a potential trigger for a fresh hawkish re-pricing, and a positive event for the dollar. Indeed, the fiscal developments in the UK (more in the GBP section below) appear to be having a rather widespread impact on global risk sentiment and have likely favoured a rebound in risk assets and bonds. There is still, however, a long way to go for European assets to regain the market’s favour given the energy crisis and concerning geopolitical developments, so we continue to see any dollar contraction driven by a recovery in European sentiment as likely short-lived. It is likely that after the ISM manufacturing miss, markets will increase scrutiny on incoming US data to gauge any downward trend in the economic outlook. Today’s data is quite outdated (factory orders and JOLTS job openings for August), which could favour a slightly calmer market environment, but a lot of focus will be on tomorrow’s ISM services index and ADP employment figures. We also have a rather long list of Fed speakers today. We think the DXY downtrend will soon run out of steam, and some stronger support may already emerge at the 111.00 level. We struggle to see the macroeconomic justification for an extension of the drop below 110.00 at the moment.     Francesco Pesole EUR: No idiosyncratic support EUR/USD has largely benefitted from the improvement in global risk sentiment, the dollar correction and some positive spillovers from the fiscal U-turn in the UK, but the euro has still failed to show any substantial idiosyncratic bullish push. This is hardly surprising given the still very challenging outlook for the eurozone and elevated uncertainty about the energy crisis heading into the cold months. Today’s data calendar is quite light in the eurozone, with only the acceleration in August PPI inflation to keep an eye on. More focus should instead be on European Central Bank speakers as President Christine Lagarde will deliver some remarks this afternoon, following speeches by both Pablo de Cos and Mario Centeno. In our view, the EUR/USD recovery is looking quite fragile, which means that any slight dollar recovery could trigger a wider correction in the pair. We still see a high risk of a return to 0.9500 over the coming weeks. Francesco Pesole GBP: Downside risks remain elevated Cable has climbed back to the levels it was trading at before the mini-Budget announcement, but we struggle to see the current rally as sustainable. Firstly, our economics team does not see the fiscal U-turn as a game changer in terms of the country’s finances, and the damage done by delivering ideological – and hardly justifiable economically – tax cuts in the first place is hard to repair. Secondly, there is still an elevated risk that the UK will face a rating downgrade. There is undoubtedly an ongoing effort by the government to calm markets, and it’s been reported this morning that Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is expected to bring forward his medium-term fiscal plan announcement, which was initially due on 23 November. However, the exact date hasn’t been revealed just yet. We think, however, the pound continues to face very significant downside risks as the large twin deficit, low market confidence in the new government and a grim outlook for Europe heading into winter all point to the unsustainability of 1.10+ levels in GBP/USD. Francesco Pesole AUD: RBA turns more cautious The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked by 25bp this morning, surprising markets on the dovish side (expectations were for a half-point move). We don’t see this as particularly surprising, as the RBA meets more than other developed central banks (once a month), which allows greater flexibility based on incoming data and global economic/financial conditions. Indeed, the Bank highlighted how uncertainty over the economic outlook has increased and appeared somewhat concerned (not alarmed) about how Australian households will respond to tighter financial conditions, although the assessment of the domestic outlook has remained rather upbeat. Fears of a sharp housing market downturn are certainly on the rise. We get two key data releases before the next RBA meeting on 1 November: employment figures for September and even more importantly the 3Q inflation report. Large surprises on the upside on both releases may open the way for a 50bp hike in November, but 25bp increases seem more likely from now on. The AUD/USD negative reaction after the RBA announcement was quite short-lived, in line with the recent detachment of monetary policy and FX dynamics. The pair remains quite vulnerable at current levels given the risks of a USD restrengthening and challenging global risk outlook.   Francesco Pesole Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary:  Risk sentiment got a strong boost yesterday from falling treasury yields, with Fed rate hike bets for early next year at their lowest in two years after a rising swell of questions from influential sources on whether the Fed is taking its tightening regime too quickly and a soft September US ISM Manufacturing data point. Overnight, Australia’s central bank, the RBA, surprised many with a hike of only 25 basis points.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities bounced back yesterday as the US 10-year yield fell to 3.64% with S&P 500 futures rallying 2.5% and extending another 1% this morning in trading around the 3,726 level; this is just a few points below the obvious short-term resistance level and a break above this level could push S&P 500 futures higher. The moves across markets likely reflect short covering and that the market was getting too stretched in the short-term and the bond market for now wants to sit idle and wait for more data on US inflation. USD and US yields/risk sentiment The US dollar weakened on the usual combination of falling treasury yields after soft US data yesterday and as the market took treasury yields, particularly at the long end of the curve, sharply lower yesterday. The move is still within the range in many key USD pairs, with 0.9900+ at minimum needed for a bear-market-neutralizing reversal in EURUSD. And AUDUSD dropped overnight on the Australia’s reserve bank only hiking 25 basis points (more below) Elsewhere, the strength in GBPUSD is far more sterling related (see more below on Chancellor Kwarteng’s reversal of the most controversial of his tax cuts) and USDJPY is curiously bid near the top of the range after Japan’s September core, ex Food and Energy Tokyo CPI came in at the highest level in years. The status of the US dollar this week will likely be clear only after the release of the September jobs report on Friday. Gold (XAUUSD) and especially silver (XAGUSD) jumped on Monday … with support coming from multiple sources. A softer dollar and US ten-year bond yields slumping to 3.6% after hitting 4% last week leading to some speculation that we may in fact have hit peak hawkishness, meaning the FOMC faced with recession worries and calls for action to curb the dollar may start easing the tone going forward. Whether or not will be data dependent, but in the short term, these developments and worries about what Putin may do next has been enough to trigger short covering across the investment metal sector, not least in gold where the net short held by money managers reached a near four-year high last Tuesday. Silver is looking at resistance at $20.88, the August high and trendline support in XAUXAG around 81.20 Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOX2) extends gains on OPEC+ chatter, weaker USD Crude oil trades higher ahead of Wednesday’s OPEC+ meeting in Vienna as the alliance is considering a production cut of more than 1 million barrels/day to support prices following a 25% slump during Q3 2022. That would be the biggest cut since the pandemic with OPEC+ slashed production by 10 million barrels/day as demand collapsed. WTI futures rose above $83/barrel while Brent was close to $90. With several OPEC+ producers, including Russia, producing below target, only Saudi Arabia may be able to limit production without a loss in additional market share. Meanwhile, expectations of an earlier Fed pivot also stabilized demand weakness expectations. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields fell all along the curve yesterday, as the market pushed Fed hike expectations for early next year toward the lowest in two weeks and yields at the longer end of the curve fell sharply on the release of a weak September US ISM Manufacturing data point. The fall in yields already has the important 3.50% yield level for the 10-year treasury benchmark coming into view after 3.56% traded yesterday. The next important data points include tomorrow’s September ISM Services survey and particularly the September jobs report on Friday. What is going on? Fed pushes back on an earlier pivot Fed’s NY President John Williams repeated inflation is too high, and the Fed's job is not done, also saying that the monetary policy is still not in restrictive zone, pushing back on some calls for an earlier Fed pivot. He acknowledged signs of a slowdown in the housing sector or the consumer and business investment spending, but nothing that could deter the Fed from fighting inflation. On forecasts, he sees inflation likely down to 3% by next year (median view for Core PCE 3.1%), and the US is likely to see unemployment rise to 4.5% by end of 2023 (median view 4.4%). Thomas Barkin (2024 voter) made the case for more inflation in the post-pandemic world, noting that the Fed must consider global developments, but the focus is on the US. RBA hiked less than expected, signaling peak hawkishness could be behind it The RBA hiked rates by just 25 basis points (0.25%) rather than the 50 bps (0.5%) many expected, which takes the cash rate to 2.6%. The RBA’s hiking power has been diminished as household spending is dropping, along with forward looking projections. We know it typically takes around nine months for central bank policy tightening to felt in the economy, and the RBA said that higher inflation and interest rates are putting pressure on households, with the full effects yet to be felt. The RBA said that although consumer confidence and house prices have fallen, the central bank is still focused on slowing inflation which it sees increasing ‘over the coming months ahead’. In addition, the RBA expects unemployment will continue to fall over the months ahead, before rising. This means, the RBA could slow the pace of hikes after December onwards. Tesla shares plunged in a strong US session With US equities rallying 2.5% yesterday high beta and growth stocks were expected to lead the gains, but our bubble stocks basket was up only 1.5% and Tesla shares fell 8.6%. The EV-maker reported Q3 deliveries of 343,830 vs estimates of 357,938 which Tesla said was due to logistical issues in its supply chain. However, the move yesterday in Tesla indicates that investors are beginning to doubt the growth in 2023 that is priced into the price as the lithium continues to be prohibitively expensive and the cost-of-living crisis is lowering demand. Sterling made a strong recovery, but can it last? Cable was seen advancing above the 1.13 handle in Asian hours on Tuesday as it extended Monday’s gains following announcement by Chancellor Kwarteng of the intent to scrap the most controversial – and least impactful on the budget – recently announced tax cut for the highest income earners. A softer dollar also supported sterling’s gains amid a slide in US Treasury yields. Elsewhere, EURGBP also dropped into the old range below 0.8700. Still, the political situation in the UK remains volatile, the bulk of the fiscally aggressive tax adjustments and energy cap proposals remain in place, so the lack of trust in the new UK government cannot be ignored. Focus now on the BOE meeting on November 3 where 115bps rate hike is priced in, lower than last week’s pricing of 150bps. However, a full-budget statement will be released before then and will offer a further sentiment test for sterling. The Eurozone and the UK PMIs confirm the risk of a recession The manufacturing PMI indexes for September are out. There is no good news. In the eurozone, the final estimate was revised down to 48.4 from 48.5 and 49.6 in August. This is the biggest monthly contraction since June 2020 (when the eurozone was getting out from the Spring lockdown). There is no surprise regarding the main reasons behind the drop. This is related to soaring energy bills which limited production across all eurozone member countries and higher cost of living pushing demand lower. Firms are getting prepared for a tough winter and are starting to discuss the opportunity of lower job hiring (very soon the talk will be about cutting jobs). In the United Kingdom, the manufacturing PMI index is also in contraction territory, at 48.4. It was 47.3 in August. This was a 27-month low. However, it is unlikely to get back into expansion anytime soon, in our view. These indicators tend to confirm there is a material risk of a recession both in the eurozone and in the United Kingdom this year. US ISM manufacturing disappoints The headline for September’s US ISM manufacturing came in weaker than expectations at 50.9 from the prior month’s 52.8 and expected 52.2. Both employment and new orders both dropped into contractionary territory printing 48.7 (exp. 53.0, prev. 54.2) and 47.1 (prev. 41.3), respectively. The report showed that higher interest rates are starting to weigh on business investment sentiment, at least in the interest rate sensitive sectors. Still, the inflationary gauge of prices paid declined to 51.7 (exp. 51.9, prev. 52.5) falling for the sixth straight month. Supplier delivery times suggested some easing on the supply chains, but overall the report indicated the case of a slowdown in the US economy as rapid Fed tightening continues. What are we watching next? Risk sentiment brightens – how far can it extend? A hole in the clouds yesterday as US yields dropped on the weak ISM Manufacturing survey and as a rising tide of observers are concerned that the Fed is tightening policy too rapidly, including one heavily covered tweet from the influential WSJ “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos noting that Greg Mankiw, the influential former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under George W Bush had expressed approval of economist Paul Krugman’s view that the Fed is tightening too quickly. Hard to see this as more than a tactical turning point for markets, perhaps on overextended short positioning. The Fed’s tune has not changed, and the strongest pushback of developments over the last couple of sessions would be strong US data, including the September ISM Services tomorrow and the September jobs report on Friday. Earnings to watch The earnings season officially starts next week with the first group of US financials reporting but in the meantime a few earnings are worth watching this week. Biogen reports Q3 earnings (ending 30 September) today with analysts expecting revenue growth of -11% y/y and EBITDA at $847mn down from $959mn a year ago. While the current financial performance of Biogen is volatile and weak, the latest news about its breakthrough in Alzheimer’s with a drug that can slow down the disease is what analysts will focus on in terms of gauging the outlook. On Wednesday, Tesco is in focus as the UK largest grocery retailer is at the center of the current food inflation and insights from Tesco will be valuable from a macro point of view. Today: Biogen Wednesday: Keurig Dr Pepper, Aeon, Lamb Weston, Tesco, RPM International Thursday: Seven & I, Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, McCormick & Co Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Eurozone Aug. PPI 1230 – ECB's Centeno to speak 1300 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 1315 – US Fed’s Mester (voter) to speak 1400 – US Aug. Factory Orders 1400 – US Aug. JOLTS Job Openings Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-4-2022-04102022

Summary:  With perfect hindsight, much of the recent aggravation of the USD spike was down to a troubled sterling as UK gilts markets were roiled by pension fund hedging after signals from the Truss government that fiscal prudence is a forgotten priority. With bond markets becalmed and sterling having come full circle from its level before the volatility event, we have now developed an additional narrative of a possible general central bank pivot to less tightening, driven by a couple of soft US data points and a dovish RBA. But can we get much more out of the pivot narrative here? FX Trading focus: We have neutralized the GBP wipeout and a central bank pivot narrative has partially broken out. Now what? Not much to add in today’s observations as yesterday saw an aggressive extension of trades aligning along the risk sentiment axis, particularly the US dollar lower, if mostly only against the European currencies. The lack of more pronounced breadth in the weakening greenback may be down to long US yields stabilizing ahead of the key 3.50% area in 10-year US treasury yield, but also down to the fact that the UK was at the center of the recent aggravated ramp up in the USD as treasury yields spiked. As well, positive news for Ukraine and softer natural gas prices in Europe are likely additional drivers for improved European FX sentiment. With GBPUSD trading back almost as high as 1.1500 this morning, the approximate kick-off area from where the UK gilt market melted down and took sterling with it starting after the September 22 Bank of England meeting, we now have to ask ourselves if there is more sustenance for a continuation of the move. Barring actual signals of a pivot from the Fed and/or energy and power prices in Europe dropping significantly further due to an actual visibility emerging on the longer term shape of Russian supplies, the answer is most likely “no”. Of course, a big miss in the September US ISM Services survey today (expected at 56.0 vs. 56.9 in August) and/or a bad miss on payrolls and earnings in the Friday US September jobs report could drive an extension of the “central bank pivot” narrative in the near term, with the US dollar on its back foot. But weaker global growth is no boon to risk sentiment at some point beyond the immediate relief from a cessation in the seemingly inexorable rise in yields. Chart: EURUSDParity in EURUSD an obvious psychological resistance line and was also the big, sticky round level that the exchange rate hugged for several weeks before the excursion to below 0.9600 that was mostly about the contagion (into a strong USD) from the sterling meltdown that was a traumatic liquidity event in the wake of the Bank of England meeting and the subsequent, deficits-be-damned moves by UK Chancellor Kwarteng. We are more or less back to square one, with the added narrative twist of a central bank pivot as noted above. Uniformly weak US data through Friday could drive an extension higher, but even a move to 1.0200+ may simply represent a larger scale consolidation within the massive downtrend, even if the downward channel denoted on the chart would be disrupted. A strong batch of US data and significant pull back higher in US yields would likely cap the action for now, although it will take some considerable work to get the downtrend back on track after this sharp back-up. The RBNZ hiked rates overnight by 50 basis points, as expected, and it was the fifth consecutive hike of that size from the Bank. Given the less dovish guidance from the RBNZ in its statement relative to the RBA’s more modest hike and guidance, the AUDNZD dropped quickly to sub-1.1250 levels overnight before rebounding considerably – an underwhelming performance. That 1.1250 area, with a bit of slippage, is arguably the bull-bear line for that pair, with commodity prices, particularly energy, a possible determinant of whether the pair reprices back higher toward 1.2000 as I have argued might be possible due to the relative change in fortunes for the two countries’ current accounts over the last couple of years. A more significant assessment of policy awaits at the final RBNZ meeting of the year on November 23 (expectations still solid for a 50 bps move then). EURCHF reached important resistance around 0.9800 after the thaw in risk sentiment and rumors of a troubled major Swiss bank helped Swiss government bond yields to drop far further than EU counterparts. Swiss yields have rebounded a bit this morning – hard to believe in a major reversal here unless we see a major further improvement in the European economic outlook. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength. The USD uptrend is limping, if not yet reversed meaningfully in a broad sense. Note the weak commodity dollars -interesting to see if OPEC+ can pull off the threatened production cuts after its meeting today. Sterling has seen a mind-bending reversal over the last many days – maybe peak amplitude on that account for a while? Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.AUDNZD up-trend status in play here after the RBNZ reaction in favour of the kiwi has not stuck well. Note EURUSD trying to turn to a positive trend reading today – the ISM Services and ADP payrolls data the likely deciders there. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights Poland Central Bank Rate Announcement 1215 – US Sep. ADP Employment Change 1230 – US Aug. Trade Balance 1230 – Canada Aug. Building Permits 1230 – Canada Aug. International Merchandise Trade 1400 – US Sep. ISM Services 2000 – US Fed’s Bostic (non-voter) to speak 0030 – Australia Aug. Trade Balance Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-we-have-neutralized-the-gbp-wipeout-now-what-05102022

USD/CAD gathered bullish momentum early Wednesday following two-day slide. WTI trades in negative territory as markets wait for OPEC+ to unveil output strategy. The dollar benefits from safe-haven flows amid escalating geopolitical tensions. After having lost nearly 300 pips in a two-day slide, USD/CAD reversed its direction and climbed toward 1.3600 on Wednesday. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3570, where it was up 0.45% on a daily basis. WTI turns south ahead of OPEC+ decision The sharp upsurge witnessed in crude oil prices helped the commodity-sensitive loonie outperform its rivals earlier in the week. On reports claiming that OPEC+ could reduce crude oil production by as much as 2 million barrels per day, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained more than 3% and climbed to its highest level since mid-September at $87 on Tuesday.  The negative shift witnessed in the risk mood, however, seems to be causing oil prices to edge lower mid-week and doesn't allow the CAD to preserve its strength. OPEC+ is set to unveil its output strategy later in the day and the European Union is expected to introduce a new sanctions package against Russia that will most likely include a cap on oil prices. Meanwhile, US stock index futures are down sharply as geopolitical tensions continue to escalate. Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly planning to address the nation and announce a change in the status of the "special operation." Russia's ambassador warned earlier in the day that the US' decision to send more military aid to Ukraine would raise the danger of a direct clash between Russia and the west. In the second half of the day, the US economic docket will feature the ADP's private sector employment data and the ISM's Services PMI survey. 

USD/CAD meets with a fresh supply on Thursday amid the emergence of some USD selling. The overnight rally in oil prices underpins the loonie and further contributes to the downtick. Hawkish Fed expectations could act as a tailwind for the buck and lend support to the pair. The USD/CAD pair extends the overnight pullback from the vicinity of the 1.3700 mark and edges lower through the first half of trading on Thursday. The pair is currently placed near the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 1.3570-1.3575 region, down nearly 0.30% for the day. The US dollar struggles to capitalize on the previous day's solid bounce from a two-week low and meets with a fresh supply, which, in turn, exerts pressure on the USD/CAD pair. A modest downtick in the US Treasury bond yields, along with a recovery in the risk sentiment, further drives flows away from the safe-haven greenback. Apart from this, the recent bullish run in crude oil prices underpins the commodity-linked loonie and contributes to the offered tone surrounding the USD/CAD pair. The black liquid shot to a three-week high after OPEC+ agreed to tighten the global supply and slash production by about 2 million bpd - the largest reduction since 2020. That said, concerns that a deeper global economic downturn will dent fuel demand keep a lid on any further gains for the black liquid. Furthermore, expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the buck, which, in turn, should offer support to the USD/CAD pair. Fed officials reiterated the US central bank's commitment to getting inflation under control and reaffirmed bets for another supersized 75 bps rate hike at the November FOMC meeting. This warrants caution before placing bearish bets around the USD/CAD pair ahead of the monthly employment details from the US and Canada on Friday. In the meantime, traders on Thursday will take cues from the release of the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and Canadian Ivey PMI. Apart from this, speeches by FOMC members and the Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem should provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/CAD pair later during the early North American session.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) hit a 20-year high recently. In the view of economists at HSBC, the USD is likely to continue to be resilient. Fed to continue hiking “Many central banks have delivered rate hikes to fight inflation. In particular, the Federal Reserve delivered its third straight 75 bps hike in September and signalled further sizeable hikes are likely to follow.”  “We believe high US yields, weak global growth, and a fragile risk appetite are likely to remain supportive for the USD.”

The dollar downtrend appears to be running out of steam. In our view, a further USD recovery is likely from current levels as markets show reluctance to fully jump in on bets of a Fed pivot. We expect EUR/USD to remain below parity. Elsewhere, central banks in central and eastern Europe have continued to deliver hawkish and dovish surprises Source: Shutterstock USD: Room for further recovery As we had expected, the dollar downtrend has started to prove unsustainable, and we saw a counter-correction in DXY to the 111/112 area yesterday before a stabilisation at 111.00 during a good Asian session for risk. It’s hard to see a clear trigger for the reversal in risk sentiment yesterday, and it probably boiled down to markets not being ready to bet heavily on the Fed pivot story. Markets are also keeping an eye on some “test cases” in the central bank sphere. While the Reserve Bank of Australia slowed the pace of hiking on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stuck to 50bp increases yesterday, signalling that a 75bp move was considered and that more hikes are on the way. In our view, the latter – hawkish – narrative should prevail for the Fed, ultimately capping the recovery in risk assets and offering widespread support to the dollar. The data calendar in the US is quite light today after yesterday’s ISM Services beat expectations (and partly offset the Manufacturing miss) and ADP labour numbers for September came in at 208k (exp. 200k). While that marks an acceleration from the revised 185k reading for August, it looks like the updated methodology still hasn’t closed the gap with the official payrolls figures, hence limiting the ADP’s predictability power. We have quite a long list of Fed speakers to keep an eye on today: Charles Evans, Lisa Cook, Christopher Waller and Loretta Mester are all set to touch upon the economic and monetary policy outlook in scheduled remarks. We don’t see why the Fed would want to endorse any of the recent dovish re-pricing in tightening expectations – if anything, we could see some comments aimed at pushing back against any pivot speculation. We expect a further dollar recovery into the weekend, with upside risks particularly concentrated around tomorrow’s payrolls release, when DXY may extend gains into the 112-113 area.  Francesco Pesole EUR: Parity is an increasingly relevant level EUR/USD showed some resistance at the 1.0000 level yesterday before falling back down on the dollar’s recovery. Despite the pair having crossed the parity line multiple times recently, that may have increasingly been interpreted as a benchmark level for the broader dollar trend. Considering the reluctance to turn more bullish on the euro into what should be a challenging winter for the eurozone, a sustained recovery to levels above parity in EUR/USD might now only be driven by markets buying more aggressively into the Fed pivot story and/or other drivers offering sustained support to risk assets. For now, we feel comfortable in reiterating our call for EUR/USD to stay pressured into the 0.90-0.95 in the last months of the year. The new pack of sanctions by the EU likely suggest a prolonged stand-off with Russia, while markets await more details on the proposed oil price cap. Today’s European Central Bank minutes will be quite interesting for European rates as they might shed some light on the quantitative tightening discussion and the size of the next rate hike. Still, the meeting-by-meeting approach may reduce the informative power of the minutes today. Francesco Pesole GBP: Tentative signs of normality It looks like the pound has continued to realign with the moves in other European and high-beta currencies, although still displaying residual signs of above-average volatility. If sterling absorbed a large share of the negative news during the post-tax event UK market turmoil, it now appears to be trading a bit too much on the strong side, especially considering that gilt yields and GB credit default swaps remain well above mid-September levels. Today, markets will keep an eye on the Bank of England Decision Maker Panel survey, which collects inflation expectations from company executives, and on a speech by MPC member Jonathan Haskel. We mostly see downside risks for cable from current levels, and expect a drop below 1.10 in the near term. In EUR/GBP, 0.8700 may emerge as an increasingly solid floor over the coming weeks. Francesco Pesole CEE: A region that never ceases to surprise The Polish central bank yesterday decided to leave rates unchanged at 6.75% despite market expectations of a 25bp rate hike. Given the hawkish expectations we discussed yesterday, the Polish zloty has come under pressure and we expect more to come today. The interest rate differential fell by 20bp during yesterday's session alone and we expect today's press conference by governor Adam Glapinski to confirm the dovish tone and increase pressure on FX. We expect the zloty to move higher into the 4.85-4.90 EUR/PLN range. Moreover, the global environment is also negative for the CEE. After a longer period of time, we saw gas prices rising again yesterday, which is not helping the whole region and EUR/USD moved lower again after briefly touching parity. The Romanian central bank, on the other hand, surprised on the hawkish side by delivering a 75bp hike to 6.25% instead of the expected 50bp. The published statement suggests that the central bank is concerned about higher inflation despite a slowing economy, the risks of which have moved up from the August meeting. On the FX side, the Romanian leu saw a slight strengthening in response to the decision, but we do not expect this to make a difference and expect a return to the standard level of just below 4.95 EUR/RON. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Rising bond yields may cut short the recent rally in sentiment Source: shutterstock Macro Outlook Global Markets: The US equity rally ran out of steam yesterday just as equity futures had indicated. Both the S&P500 and NASDAQ fell by about 0.2%, but the initial fall on opening was mostly rallied away until late trading saw profit taking and a small fall at the close. Futures are looking positive again today, and that may be the dominant theme ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls. EURUSD got to 0.999, but didn’t have the conviction to push through to parity and came off to settle at 0.9895 now. The AUD was more or less flat at 0.65, though it looked more interested in going down than up, which may be the more likely direction of travel today. Cable has drifted back from nearly 1.15 yesterday to only 1.1336 now and the JPY is also slightly weaker at 144.48.  The KRW was Asia’s best-performing currency yesterday, dropping back all the way to 1410. Other Asian currencies made smaller gains. Bond yields rose again, which could start to sour market sentiment today. 2Y US Treasury yields rose 5.6bp, but 10Y US Treasury yields rose 12bp to 3.75%. There were more considerable increases in European bonds, German 10Y bund yields rose 16bp, and Italian 10Y bond yields rose 29bp. Anxiety about the ECB beginning quantitative tightening seems to be causing these jitters and Moody’s also warned that Italy needed pro-growth reforms. G-7 Macro: The main data focus yesterday would have been the ADP employment survey – the least bad of a bunch of monthly indicators for US non-farm payrolls. The headline figure was 208,000 jobs created, just ahead of the 200,000 forecast, and slightly up on last month’s 185,000. For what it is worth, the consensus estimate for payroll job growth tomorrow is 260,000. That would represent a small decline from the 315,000 job growth recorded in August, but would still represent fairly decent employment gains. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%. Maybe of more interest than these employment figures was the September 30 MBA mortgage applications figure, which showed a 14.2% decline from the previous week, the biggest drop since pandemic-affected March 2020. Australia: Trade data for August delivered a smaller surplus than had been expected as imports grew by 4% from July, instead of the 1% decline predicted. Exports were slightly stronger, growing 3% MoM against expectations for a 2% gain. The surplus came in at AUD8.324m, slightly lower than July’s AUD8733m. The AUD has shrugged off the data. Philippines:  The August jobs report is out today.  Unemployment is expected to inch lower as economic activity improves. The underemployment rate, however, could stay elevated at double digits as workers seek higher wages. The improving jobs market could suggest robust consumption. But high inflation should cap spending ahead of the holiday season with inflation hitting 6% YoY in September.   What to look out for: US initial jobless claims Australia trade balance (6 October) Philippines unemployment rate (6 October) Taiwan CPI inflation (6 October) US initial jobless claims (6 October) Fed’s Evans, Cook, Mester speaking events (6 October) South Korea BoP current account (7 October) Regional GIR data (7 October) US non-farm payrolls (7 October) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

American macro statistics published on Wednesday turned out to be positive and managed to support the dollar. It rose on Wednesday, and its DXY index added 0.85% on the trading day. As of this writing, DXY futures are trading near 111.10, up 114 points from Tuesday's low this week. According to Automatic Data Processing (ADP), U.S. private sector employment rose by 208,000 in September against market expectations of +200,000 growth and the previous value for August of +185,000, revised from +132,000. The ADP commented on the data, stating that "those who stayed at work saw a rise in wages, while those who changed jobs saw a decrease in annual wage growth in September compared to August." Although the ADP report does not have a direct correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls, it still has a fairly strong influence on the dollar dynamics, and the growth of its indicators has a positive effect on the quotes of the American currency. Other reports (from S&P Global and ISM) were also positive for the dollar. According to the data presented, business activity in the US services sector continued to grow in September, although slightly slower than in August. The Services PMI (from ISM), although it fell to 56.7 from 56.9, was better than market expectations at 56. The Employment Index (by ISM) improved to 53 from 50.2. According to the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, "the services sector saw a slight slowdown in September due to slower business activity and new orders," but "improvements are being seen in terms of supply chain efficiency, operating capacity and availability of materials "—indicators remain "less than ideal". In turn, S&P Global said that "in September, there were encouraging signals that business conditions may begin to improve." Now, market participants will wait for the publication on Friday (at the beginning of the American trading session) of the report of the Department of Labor with data on the US labor market for September. Previous report values (average hourly wages / new jobs created outside the agricultural sector / unemployment rate): +0.3% in August, +0.5% in July, +0.3% in June, May and April , +0.4% in March, 0% in February, +0.7% in January 2022 / 0.315 million in August, +0.528 million in July, +0.372 million in June, +0.390 million in May, +0.428 million in April, +0.431 million, +0.678 million in February, +0.467 million in January 2022 / 3.7% in August, 3.5% in July, 3.6% in June, May, April and March, 3, 8% in February, 4.0% in January 2022. Forecast for September: +0.3% / +0.250 million / 3.7%, respectively. The indicators can be called, if not strong, then very positive. At the same time, unemployment remains at minimal levels. It should be noted that market participants are waiting for further decisive steps from the Fed towards tightening monetary policy. Recent hawkish comments from Fed officials have revived expectations for another big rate hike in November. The US dollar index (DXY) remains bullish, and market participants, according to CME Group, estimate the likelihood of a 75 basis point Fed hike in November at almost 70%. Today's economic calendar will include new speeches by FOMC officials and a report from the Department of Labor with data on the dynamics of the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Therefore, the volatility in dollar quotes will increase again at 12:30, 12:50, 17:00, 21:00, 22:30. As we noted in our recent review, "the range of DXY fluctuation over the past partial 2 weeks was 4.34%. This is a fairly strong downward correction of the dollar." Now the dollar index (reflected as CFD #USDX in the MT4 trading terminal) is trying to resume its upward momentum, pushing off a 2-week low below 110.00. Despite a rather strong correction, the dollar's upward momentum continues, pushing the DXY towards more than 20-year highs near 120.00, 121.00. The breakdown of short-term resistance levels 111.07, 111.75 will be the first signal that the dollar and the DXY index will return to growth. Support levels: 111.00, 111.07, 110.26, 109.40, 105.55, 103.80 Resistance levels: 111.75, 112.50, 114.00, 114.74, 115.00   Relevance up to 12:00 2022-10-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323603

In this article: USDCAD Gold Price US Crude Oil Price Check out our video comment on RBA decision:   USDCAD consolidates The Canadian dollar struggles over lacklustre August export data. A bearish RSI divergence showed a slowdown in the upward momentum while a double top at 1.3830 further suggested exhaustion in the current rally. The pair is prone to a correction after it fell below 1.3600. The uptrend remains intact but the recent parabolic rise could use some breathing room to let the bulls accumulate again. 1.3420 on the 20-day moving average is an area of interest. The support-turned-resistance at 1.3700 is the first hurdle. XAUUSD hits resistance Gold clawed back losses as the dollar index bounces higher. A sharp recovery has lifted bullion back to September’s high at 1730 which is an important level on the daily chart. As the RSI soared into the overbought area, fresh selling from trend followers in conjunction with profit-taking has kept the rally in check. A bullish breakout would force the short side to cover, stirring up volatility in the process. The psychological level of 1700 is a fresh support and its breach may extend losses to 1660. USOIL tests key resistance WTI crude bounced higher after OPEC+ agreed to cut output. The rebound has gained a foothold after it cleared the supply zone around 83.00. The price is testing the daily resistance and psychological level of 90.00 and stiff pressure could be expected from the sell side. However, sentiment may brighten up in the short-term if the bulls manage to push past this ceiling, clearing the path towards 97.00. As the RSI inches back into overbought territory, 86.00 has turned into a support in case of a pullback.

GBP/USD is down sharply today. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1150 down a massive 1.58%. The pound continues to exhibit sharp volatility, with swings of over 1% every day this week. Fitch downgrades UK debt outlook The fallout surrounding Chancellor Kwarteng’s ill-fated mini-budget just won’t go away. After immense pressure, Kwarteng abolished the tax breaks for the top 1% earners in a humiliating U-turn that has badly damaged the credibility of the new government. The fiasco sent the pound to a record low and forced the Bank of England to step in after the bond market was close to crashing. On Wednesday, the Fitch ratings agency lowered its outlook for UK debt from “stable” to “negative”, following a similar move by Standard & Poor’s after the mini-budget. Fitch did maintain the UK’s credit rating of AA-, but the lower outlook will not help Prime Minister Truss’ beleaguered government. The pound was pummelled in September, losing 3.9%. The outlook for the pound does not look good, with soaring inflation and the new government’s serious missteps after only a few weeks in office. Manufacturing PMI remained below 50, which indicates contraction. Today’s Construction PMI rose to 52.3, up from 49.2, but much of the improvement was due to an easing in supply shortages, and new orders fell to their lowest level since May 2020. In the US, the spotlight will be on Friday’s nonfarm payroll report. The reading is an important bellwether of the health of the US economy and can provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s future rate policy. On Wednesday, the ADP employment report showed a slight improvement at 208,000, up from 185,000 (200,000 est.) The ADP release is not a reliable forecaster of the official NFP release, but ADP is now using a new methodology, which hopefully will improve its reliability. Non-farm payrolls are expected to decline to 250,000 in September, down from 315,000 in August. A reading that is well off the estimate could trigger volatility from the US dollar – a strong reading will raise expectations that the Fed will stay very aggressive, while a soft release could mean the Fed has to pivot earlier than it expected. GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing support at 1.1206. The next support line is at 1.1085 There is resistance at 1.1350 and 1.1486 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. GBP/USD slides after Fitch's downgrade - MarketPulseMarketPulse

A formation of a bullish flag is setting a base for recording fresh two-year highs around 1.4000. Market sentiment has turned negative which supports the greenback’s appeal. The RSI (14) is aiming to enter into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. The USD/CAD pair has rebounded firmly after hitting an intraday low of 1.3726 in the Tokyo session. The asset is oscillating around 1.3750, at the press time, and is expected to overstep the same confidently as the market sentiment has turned extremely sour amid soaring hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. Also, the S&P500 has eased off its entire gains recorded in the Tokyo session. On a four-hour scale, the asset is forming a Bullish Flag pattern that signals an impulsive bullish wave after the breakout of the consolidation. Usually, the consolidation phase indicates a most auctioned region where those investors place bets who prefers to enter an auction after the establishment of an upside bias. Also, investors add more longs as they see a continuation of the uptrend after a time-corrective pause. It is worth noting that the 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have defended their bearish crossover at around 1.3600, which indicates that the upside is intact. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is attempting to cross the 60.00 figure for a sheer bullish momentum. Should the asset break above the previous week’s high at 1.3833, the greenback bulls will expose the asset to hit a fresh two-year high at 1.4000. A breach of the latter will drive the major towards May 2020 high at 1.4173. On the contrary, a decisive break below the round-level support placed at 1.3600 will drag the asset towards the psychological support at 1.3500, followed by September 19 high at 1.3344. USD/CAD four-hour chart  

Pushback against the pivot from Fed officials ahead of payrolls Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global Markets: Wednesday’s pause in the equity rally turned into a trickle of selling on Thursday, and it remains to be seen if this turns into a flood later today. And what is likely to be the catalyst for such a move would be the non-farm payrolls figure later today. What the market seems to be crying out for, is a Fed pivot, and anything in the numbers later that supports that case may be enough to bolster these ideas. That means that the market probably needs to see a much weaker payrolls figure than the 315,000 registered last month, though the consensus 255,000 expectation may not be sufficient. For its part, the Fed is sticking its  “higher for longer” mantra. This was repeated in various forms by the Fed’s Waller, Mester, Evans, Kashkari, and Cook yesterday, so even if the data is on the soft side, the Fed is unlikely to sanction a market move to price in 2023 rate cuts, at least not for a good while yet. Equity futures are showing a small negative as of writing. The EUR has resumed its slide again and is now down to 0.9795, and that has helped bring down Cable to 1.1162, and the AUD to 0.6414. the JPY is just below 145 at 144.96, which could set the scene for some BoJ intervention later on.  Within Asian FX, the INR stands out as one of the weaker currencies, not helped by the news that inclusion into the JP Morgan global bond index has been shunted back into next year. Otherwise, yesterday saw further gains for the KRW, which got back below 1400 at one point, but settled a bit higher and is at 1402 now. Today, Asian FX may struggle with the risk tone more subdued and caution ahead of payrolls. Bond yields meanwhile continue to rise, and it doesn’t feel as if risk assets or currencies have caught up with resurgent yields yet. 2Y US Treasury yields rose nearly 11bp to 4.258%, while the yield on the 10Y US Treasury rose 7.1bp  to 3.824%. Bond markets at least seem to be listening to Fed speakers at the moment, though we are likely to see sentiment waver to and fro over the coming weeks and months as the hawkish rhetoric meets increasingly gloomy activity data. G-7 Macro: As mentioned, US non-farm payrolls is the key release of the month so far, and the consensus is for a rise in employment of 255,000. Average hourly earnings are forecast to ease back to 5.0%YoY from 5.2%, and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.7%. Here is also a link to our new monthly, including articles on China’s economy, and a comparison of Asia now against the 1997/98 financial crisis.  What to look out for: US jobs report South Korea BoP current account (7 October) Regional GIR data (7 October) US non-farm payrolls (7 October) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Investors coming up with a reason to buy risky assets do not stop. Earlier, before the Fed meeting in September, many actively discussed whether the Fed would ease the pace of rate hikes under market pressure. But what happened was the opposite as after the meeting, the central bank raised rates to the previously announced 0.75%. This caused the collapse of the US stock market and with it the European and other markets. And now, after the RBA did not raise the rate by the promised percentage, investors became excited again, deciding that it was the situation on the US labor market that could be the reason why the Fed will shift its stance on interest rates. But the employment report from ADP was not as expected since the number of jobs was above the forecast of 200,000, reaching 208,000. This caused the end of the two-day rally, and led to new declines in stock indices. For today, the upcoming employment data in the US will be important. Forecasts say there should be 250,000 new jobs in September against 315,000 in August. If the data turns out to be lower than expected, hopes that the Fed will reduce the growth of rates will surge, which may cause a local increase in stocks and a decline in dollar. Forecasts for today: EUR/USD The pair is trading below 0.9810. It may rise to 0.9920 if positive sentiment prevails today after a weak US employment data. USD/CAD The pair is trading above 1.3720. If the data on the number of new jobs in the US is below expectations, it may fall to around 1.3600.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323698

More and more of the worlds central banks are turning to currency interventions to keep their currencies from weakening. While each central bank is saving its currency, they are all working together to undermine the Dollars value by increasing its global supply. Bank of Japan protecting USD/JPY  For the last two weeks, Japan has been protecting the yen from further weakening by keeping the USDJPY above 145. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is not changing its ultra-soft monetary policy. Given Japans deep pocket of more than 1 trillion US treasuries, this promises to be an extended play, attracting speculators interest in buying into the pair on the downside. British Pound supported The Bank of England reportedly entered the market last week to keep the pound from collapsing. Record lows in the Indian rupee also forced the countrys central bank to intervene in the market. There is little information on China, but there is also a large force there, reversing the rate on the rise above 7.20, as it has done since 2019. Hong Kong and the Czech Republic have been injecting dollars into the markets. Bloomberg's analysis Bloomberg calculates that global foreign exchange reserves have fallen by 1 trillion to 12 trillion since the start of the year, only about half of which is due to a rising dollar, with the other half coming from dollar sales. We are seeing more and more countries standing up to national currencies in an attempt to contain inflation. If this trend continues to gather momentum, multiple streams promise to become a full-flowing river, raising the overall level of dollar liquidity. Check out our comment on RBA: Interestingly, the trend towards defensive interventions is detrimental to Fed policy, so the latter can only strengthen and extend its active steps to tighten monetary policy. And this game is against the interests of the majority in the world, so developments promise to be fascinating. Even if a host of smaller central banks fail to prevent the Dollar from renewing the highs reached at the end of last month, further US currency growth promises to be much more complex and slower. The 16-month dollar growth trend promises to stop being a one-way street.

We expect today's US payrolls to decelerate from the August figure but to come in at around 200-250k, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.7%. This may be enough to let markets drift further away from any Fed-pivot rhetoric and keep the dollar supported. Jobs data will be published in Canada too, but the implications for the BoC policy should be limited USD: Staying bid on payrolls The dollar rebound has gained further steam into today’s nonfarm payrolls risk event. Along with a generalised narrative that continues to favour the dollar (a hawkish Fed, lack of alternatives to USD, choppy risk environment), the risks of an escalation in the US-OPEC+ stand-off on oil prices may have added to the market’s concerns about elevated inflation and the need for aggressive tightening by global central banks. Today’s focus will obviously be on the US, as investors will look for any hint that the jobs market is starting to turn. We think it’s too early for that, and our economists are in line with consensus in expecting the unemployment rate to stay at 3.7% with payrolls slowing but staying above 200k (consensus 250k). We think the dollar rally in the past two sessions was simply a reversal of the previous correction, and not necessarily linked to rising expectations around a very strong jobs report today. We therefore see more room for USD appreciation today after the payrolls release as markets drift further away from Fed-pivot speculation. DXY could find its way back into the 113.00-114.00 region. Francesco Pesole EUR: Downtrend has further to go The ECB minutes failed to materially stir the market’s rate expectations yesterday, and the OIS curve continues to indicate a 75bp rate hike is cementing as a consensus view for investors. After industrial production figures (which dropped more than expected) in Germany were released this morning, there are no major data releases to watch in the eurozone today, and we would expect little deviation from the current hawkish rhetoric by the two scheduled ECB speakers: Mario Centeno and Philip Lane. EUR/USD has broken back below 0.9800 as the USD recovery added pressure. Today, as we see upside risks for the dollar after the payrolls release, another leg lower in EUR/USD is our base case. We currently expect the downtrend in the pair will extend to the 0.95-0.96 area in the very near term, and to the 0.90-0.94 area by year-end. Francesco Pesole Elsewhere in Poland, National Bank of Poland governor Adam Glapinski yesterday announced a pause in the hiking cycle, following the Czech National Bank and National Bank of Hungary. He did not rule out further rate hikes, but the next decision will depend on the central bank's new macroeconomic forecast. Our Warsaw team expects further rate hikes later this year, but also in early 2023. For now, however, the main thing to watch will be the zloty, which is coming under increasing pressure with yesterday's move above 4.85 EUR/PLN. Moreover, global developments are not playing in favour of the CEE region either. EUR/USD is lower for the second day in a row and today's US payrolls may add to the pressure. Overall, the zloty is likely to test the 4.90 level, the weakest since March. Frantisek Taborsky GBP: Looking unsustainable above 1.10 While moving largely in line with other European currencies, the pound continues to show a higher beta to risk sentiment compared to only a few weeks ago. This is likely a legacy of the late-September meltdown that is there to stay.   We still deem the pound’s current levels as unsustainable given the fragility in the bond market and the UK’s deteriorated fiscal and current account position. A return to sub-1.10 levels in Cable is a question of when rather than if, in our view, and today’s US payrolls may favour a more rapid descent. The UK calendar is empty today, but markets will remain aware of any comments by government officials. Yesterday, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng held (emergency?) talks with UK lenders to help ease the strains in the mortgage market. A potentially fast acceleration in the UK housing market correction has surely become a more relevant theme for the government, and likely another downside risk for the pound. Francesco Pesole CAD: BoC to stay hawkish despite jobs jitter Bank of Canada’s governor Tiff Macklem delivered some quite hawkish remarks yesterday as he claimed the Bank is not ready for a more finely balanced policy, that there is still plenty to be done to curb inflation given lingering excess demand and largely accepting the prospect of a quite hard landing for the economy. The comments were likely aimed at curbing any speculation that the recent not-so-good data flow in Canada may warrant a less aggressive stance by the BoC on tightening. Like many other central banks now, the BoC is stirring away from any dovish turn given the risk of losing control of inflation expectations. In this sense, yesterday’s comments may have worked as a “hedge” against another potential job data disappointment today. After three consecutive negative payroll figures, the consensus is centred around a 20k increase for September, with the unemployment rate staying at 5.4%. We expect the US payrolls impact on USD to be larger than Canada’s jobs data impact on CAD, and see USD/CAD upside risks today even if Canada’s figures come in positive. A re-test of the 1.3830 highs in USD/CAD is a material risk over the coming weeks. Francesco Pesole Read this article on THINK TagsFederal Reserve Bank of Canada Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The US added 263,000 jobs in September while the unemployment rate dropped back to just 3.5%. A lack of suitable workers continues to constrain the economy with job vacancies exceeding the number of unemployed Americans by more than 4mn and with core inflation set to rise further next week a 75 basis point Fed hike on 2 November is virtually assured  263,000 Jobs created in September   Strong job creation continues The US added 263k jobs in September with 11k of upward revisions to the past 2 months – close to the consensus 255k. The payrolls data shows solid gains in most areas with manufacturing rising 22k despite the ISM employment index moving into contraction territory. Construction rose 19k while private service providing firms increased payrolls by 244k. Within services it was a little more mixed with retail (-1k), financial (-8k) and trade/transport (+3k) well down on recent months job gains while leisure and hospitality (+83k) and education/health (+90k) look strong. Government is a drag once again, losing 25k jobs. This leaves total payrolls at 153.0mn, a new record high and half a million above the February 2020 pre-pandemic high. US non-farm payrolls level (mn) Source: Macrobond, ING But it could have been even stronger with demand still exceeding supply Meanwhile, the household survey shows the unemployment rate dropped back to 3.5% from 3.7% thanks to the combination of rising employment (+204k) on this survey’s calculations and people leaving the workforce (-57k). We had suspected the unemployment rate would fall given the big rise in the participation rate last month of 0.3pp to 62.4% is rarely ever held onto in the subsequent month. The 3.5% unemployment rate matches the low seen in July. The chart shows the weakness in participation is primarily due to older (55+) workers not having returned to the workforce, which suggests early retirements or possible health worries remain a major factor behind the lack of workers to fill vacant job positions. Change in participation rate by age (percentage points since Dec 2019) Source: Macrobond, ING   Rounding out the report, wages were in line with consensus at 5% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in August and the average work week remained at 34.5 hours. Inflation pressures remain strong so another 75bp is on its way The report is on the stronger side of expectations overall, with payrolls growth more constrained by a lack of suitable workers to fill positions rather than any meaningful downturn in hiring intentions – there are still 4mn more vacancies that there are unemployed Americans to fill the positions. This indicates that the Fed has more work to do to slow the economy in order to get inflation under control. In this regard note next week’s core CPI inflation rate (published 13 October) is expected to RISE to 6.5% from 6.3% next week. We were down at “only” 5.9% in June and July and this unfavourable shift when the labour market remains so tight means that a 75bp hike at the 2 November Federal Open Market Committee meeting remains the obvious call. Read this article on THINK TagsWages US Unemployment Jobs Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Corporate supply totals US$42bn in September, down on previous years • Corporate supply in September amounted to US$42bn, significantly lower than the US$75bn+ seen in previous years. On a YTD basis, supply is now pencilled in at US$440bn, down US$140bn from US$584bn by this time last year. Redemptions were US$40bn for the month of September, resulting in a net supply of US$1.6bn. Redemptions in October are set to be USD$32bn. • The Consumer sector had the most supply last month, with US$15bn followed by the Industrial sector with US$12bn. In terms of YTD supply, the Consumer sector totalled US$46bn, but TMT remains the highest amongst all sectors with a figure of US$114bn. Until now, only the Autos sector is on the positive side in terms of difference from last year’s YTD figures with a 37% increase from US$19bn last year to US$26bn thus far this year. • Corporate Reverse Yankee supply is now at €25bn YTD, after €4bn was issued in September. This is significantly lower than previous years. Limited primary market activity due to the volatile markets and higher funding costs has resulted in supply to be concentrated in local currency, thus relatively lower Reverse Yankee supply. Negative net supply for Financials in September • Financial credit supply saw a substantial drop in September, decreasing from US$62bn in August to US$17bn. Additionally, this is the lowest amount of this year and for August in the past four years by a considerable amount. Redemptions were high in September at US$30bn, putting net supply at -US$13bn, the lowest level this year. Financial credit supply is now sitting at US$449bn YTD, up slightly on previous years. • Naturally bank supply accounted for most of the financial credit supply where Bank senior supply accounted for US$9bn this month and US$4bn in Bank capital supply this month. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

USD/CAD is preparing for a break above 1.3750 as DXY has refreshed its day’s high at 112.94. The tight US labor market has filled the Fed with confidence for announcing a bigger rate hike in November. The loonie bulls have failed to capitalize on better-than-projected Canada employment data. The USD/CAD pair is aiming to demolish the back-and-forth moves structure that remained in a narrow range of 1.3720-1.3740 in the early European session. The asset is preparing for an impulsive rally following the footprints of the US dollar index (DXY). The DXY has refreshed its day’s high at 112.94On a broader note, the asset is oscillating around the weekly hurdle of 1.3750 and may remain in the bullish arena amid negative market sentiment. The release of the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday has pumped the odds of a 75 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The upbeat economic catalyst has terrified investors, which has resulted in a bearish performance by S&P500. Also, the 10-year US Treasury yields have reached near 3.90%. A tight labor market has provided confidence to the Fed to announce a bigger rate hike unhesitatingly. A fourth consecutive 75 bps rate hike announcement by the Fed will push the interest rates to 3.75-4%, close to the targeted rate of 4.4%, as discussed in September’s dot plot. Going forward, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will remain in limelight. Previously, the headline CPI dropped to 8.3%, however, the core CPI was escalated. It is expected that weaker gasoline prices will keep the headline CPI in check, therefore, the spotlight will remain on the core CPI. As per the consensus, the economic data is expected to improve to 6.5% from the prior release of 6.3%. Meanwhile, loonie bulls have failed to capitalize on better-than-projected employment data. The Net Change in Employment landed at 21.1k, higher than the projections of 20k. Also, the Unemployment Rate declined to 5.2% from the expectations and the prior release of 5.4%. On the oil front, the announcement of the production cuts by OPEC+ has titled the short-term trend towards the north. Apart from that, the reopening of China after a golden week holiday is promising that the demand for oil will pick up as Chinese manufacturing activities were shut down during the holiday period.  It is worth noting that Canada is a leading oil exporter to the US and higher fund inflows will strengthen its fiscal balance sheet.

Strong data supports the status quo. Therefore, economists at Commerzbank expect the US dollar to remain strong as the Federal Reserve is set to retain a hawkish stance. Nothing to stop dollar-strength “The market is therefore now expecting that the Fed will hike its rates significantly over the coming months and will then keep them at these levels for a longer period.” “The US economy and/or US inflation would probably have to weaken significantly over a short period of time for the Fed to sound less hawkish, a development that seems rather unlikely. That means there is little to prevent dollar strength at present.”

The US economy added 263K jobs in September - slightly above forecasts for growth of 250K-255K. The unemployment rate has returned to 3.5% after 3.7%, reversing concerns that there was already a sustained upward trend in the rate. We recall that the Fed expects unemployment to rise to 4% by the end of the year, calling for economic pain to be accepted to suppress inflation. CME Fed Watch Reading Impressive job growth and falling unemployment rates are fuelling speculation that the Fed will once again raise the rate by 75 points in early November. CME's FedWatch tool indicates that markets have an 82% chance of such an outcome. A week ago, the odds of such an outcome were below 57%, and this shift is lying behind the latest boost to the dollar and the decline in equities. Read next: Crude Oil Amid OPEC+ Decision. Would Supplies From Russia Be Banned On London Metal Exchange?| FXMAG.COM However, the situation is not clear-cut, as rising employment almost paradoxically leads to slower wage growth. After adding 0.3% for the month, hourly earnings added 5.0% y/y against 5.2% a month earlier and a peak of 5.6% in March. Job growth would allow the Fed to take another big step towards a rate hike without fear of bringing down the economy. But already in November, we should expect signals of a further reduction in the pace of rate hikes, which limits the medium-term potential for a stronger dollar and weaker stock markets.

The European Central Bank looks determined to follow in the Federal Reserve's footsteps. After the start of aggressive rate hikes, and with no end in sight yet, the next milestone is a reduction of its bond portfolio. However, we think the ECB's hawkishness might be premature. Quantitative tightening will come but not now QT is on the ECB's radar but still a distant prospect The minutes of the ECB's September meeting delivered a couple of interesting insights: the decision to hike rates by 75bp was not taken unanimously, so 75bp increments should not be the new normal. However, the ECB was clearly determined to continue hiking rates significantly. Also, looking beyond the configuration of the key ECB interest rates, the minutes underlined that the Eurosystem's large balance sheet was continuing to provide significant monetary policy accommodation by compressing term premia. The Governing Council felt it appropriate to reiterate that it stood ready to adjust all of the instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation returned to its medium-term target of 2%. This is a clear signal that reducing the ECB's balance sheet has become an issue. Quantitative tightening (QT) - how to reduce the size of the balance sheet - was also apparently on the agenda at this week's non-monetary policy meeting in Cyprus. However, so far, no information has been leaked from this meeting. Bond yields have already increased significantly in recent months without any quantitative tightening A discussion is one thing, an actual decision another. Just a little more than a week ago, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the ECB would only start to consider QT when the ECB had completed its monetary policy normalisation. At the same time, bond yields have already increased significantly in recent months without any QT. Also, given the very uncertain economic outlook and more pressure on governments to deliver additional fiscal stimulus, QT at the current juncture could trigger an unwarranted widening of bond spreads, a.k.a, a new euro crisis. This is something the ECB clearly does not want. A premature QT decision also has other risks. It could raise the bar for triggering the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) even higher, a development that could actually spark a new euro crisis. As such, an actual decision on QT is very unlikely as it would add to financial stress and uncertainty. However, it's good to at least have a plan for when this is really needed.             How the ECB's QT could work Though quantitative tightening currently looks unlikely, it will come eventually. Given the complicated structure of the ECB's bond purchases across countries, sectors and durations, an outright selling of the bond portfolio will not be an easy one without disturbing markets. Also, don't forget that the ECB's balance sheet not only comprises the bond portfolio but also the series of liquidity operations to support bank lending. These bank lending operations (TLTROs) will be repaid by banks, automatically reducing the balance sheet. Still, when financial markets think of QT, they think of reversing the ECB's asset purchases. In this regard, the option of gradually and more passively reducing its asset portfolio looks the most attractive.   The option of gradually and more passively reducing its asset portfolio looks the most attractive A possible first step would be to (gradually) stop the reinvestments of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP). One way to phase in QT would be to first cap APP reinvestments at 50% of their normal amount during, say, the second and third quarters before ending them in the fourth. In this scenario, the resulting balance sheet reduction would be a manageable €155bn in 2023, doubling to €300bn in 2024. The next step would be to end the reinvestments under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). These would add to the balance sheet reduction in 2025, leading to a total reduction of €388bn (along with the APP reductions). In addition, the ECB could speed up the process with outright sales but we doubt peripheral bond markets would be able to stomach the impact (see next sections). In terms of timing, we take Christine Lagarde's recent comments for granted and expect a gradual end to the APP reinvestments between 2Q and 4Q next year. PEPP reinvestments will stop by the end of 2024. QT could reduce the ECB's balance sheet by €155bn in 2023 and €300bn in 2024 Source: Refinitiv, ING   Whenever it happens, we expect QT to be felt across three dimensions of rates markets: duration, credit (and sovereign) premia, and money markets (through the price of liquidity).  Impact on core yields: moderate at the start One of the channels through which QE influenced markets was by suppressing the compensation for a certain number of risks, including duration risk. At face value, this means that, when the ECB reduces its balance sheet, long-dated yields will rise. So far so good. There is empirical evidence for that. For reference, we find that a €155bn reduction in the ECB's bond portfolio size in 2023 would push 10Y Bund yields up by only 7bp, and a €300bn reduction in 2024 would reduce them by 14bp. If this sounds unimpressive, note that without the €5tn of ECB purchases, 10Y Bund yields would be 230bp higher by this, admittedly rough, estimate. Note also that QT would add to the amount of debt that private markets would have to absorb if European governments were to significantly increase their borrowing to finance energy support packages. This is another argument for a delayed start to QT. A €155bn reduction in the ECB’s bond portfolio size in 2023 would push 10Y Bund yields up by only 7bp What is much more difficult to track is the impact this will have on the shape of the yield curve. On paper, the longer the maturity point, the more QE suppresses yields. We're not expecting a re-steepening as a result of QT, however. The experience of the US and UK has shown that yield curves can invert even in the context of QT. The reason is that other factors have a greater influence, namely that base rates are going above their long-term neutral levels. In short, we're still expecting a German curve inversion next year irrespective of QT. Without QE 10Y German Bund yields would be over 200bp higher Source: Refinitiv, ING Sovereign spreads: adding fuel to the fire When one moves away from so-called ‘risk-free’ markets, the main impact of QE is suppressing credit compensation. In the case of sovereign bonds, QE was instrumental in suppressing eurozone break-up risk in the sovereign crisis of 2010-12, and in subsequent periods of market stress. Our analysis of German yields above implies that the stock, rather than the flow of purchases is the relevant variable to assess market impact. This isn’t so simple for sovereign spreads, where both variables matter. In plain English, we think the impact of QT on sovereign spreads will occur a lot faster than on core yields, once flows turn negative. This explains why spreads already started widening before QT was even discussed, as QE purchases drew to a close in mid-2022. We fear the ECB following through with QT would compound the worries of already stressed financial markets. We struggle to see how peripheral markets would cope with rising interest rates and QT at the same time We struggle to see how peripheral markets would cope with rising interest rates and QT at the same time. This is a key reason why we expect QT to start only once the phase of rising base interest rates is over. Additionally, the ECB keeping spread-support programmes, such as the TPI, at hand would go some way to reassuring markets. It would also mean a slower reduction in the ECB's bond portfolio if it is forced to temporarily buy peripheral bonds. QT will reduce excess liquidity and help widen money market spreads, such as Euribor Source: Refinitiv, ING Money markets: taking away the comfort blanket A large chunk of money market rates also has a credit and duration component, which we covered in the sections above. But the compensation in money markets is even more heavily suppressed by the tide of ECB Excess Liquidity (EL) introduced during successive rounds of QE and loans to banks (TLTROs). As QT begins, EL will shrink by the same amount. In 2023, the estimated €155bn reduction in excess liquidity from QT will pale in comparison to the nearly €2tn reduction coming from targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) loan repayments. Each incremental reduction in liquidity will make money market rates more sensitive to other risk factors After that date, however, each incremental reduction in liquidity will make money market rates more sensitive to other risk factors. The widening of money market spreads, for instance Euribor fixings compared to overnight index swaps (OIS), is not linear. The first €2tn reduction will probably have little effect. After that, at the latest after mid-2023, the impact of EL reduction will accelerate. This effect could even be magnified if the ECB decides to effectively lock away a portion of EL using tiered bank reserve remunerations (see our article on that topic). Read this article on THINK TagsQuantitative tightening Interest Rates ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

  Friday's September jobs report showed a decline in monthly growth, with 263,000 new jobs added last month, down from the previous month's 315,000.     The profound impact it had on nearly every asset class in the financial markets was not due to low numbers, but rather to the Federal Reserve's hope that those numbers would be even lower. The Fed was hoping Friday's report would show slower growth because that would be the reason for the Fed's progress in bringing inflation down. Inflation is still holding at 40-year highs, even after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates at every FOMC meeting since March. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in March, by 50 basis points in May, and by 75 basis points in June, July, and September. It also raised the benchmark fund rate from 0–25 basis points in February to 300–325 basis points in September. While Friday's report points to a slowdown in job growth, it is believed that this reduction is not enough for the Federal Reserve to slow the current pace of interest rate hikes.     According to the CME FedWatch tool, the week before last there was a 56.5% chance of an interest rate hike, on Thursday there was a 75.2% chance, which increased to an 82.3% chance on Friday that the Federal Reserve would raise rates by 75 basis points in for the fourth time in a row in November. This probability indicator predicts the likelihood of a FOMC rate change using 30-day Fed Funds futures price data. Friday's report had a profound effect on US equities. The Dow fell 2.22%:     The NASDAQ is down about 415 points:     And the S&P was down 106.16 points, or 2.90%:     Friday's report also had a strong impact on gold prices:     So what does this mean for the future of gold pricing? While this report is extremely important in the dataset that the Federal Reserve will use at its November 2 FOMC meeting, the CPI inflation report for September this week will be far more important. But in terms of the Fed's long-term impact on gold prices, it's highly likely that if the Fed continues to raise rates and inflation remains robust, at some point market participants will have to focus on high inflation rather than focusing on growth. rates. If this assumption is correct, the price of gold could rise significantly. But it is also likely that there will be more pain ahead.   Relevance up to 11:00 2022-10-13 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323838

Previously, the GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the lower limit of the channel around 1.3000 which failed to hold prices above. Shortly after, a new daily low was established around 1.2150 which was bypassed few days after. However, considerable support zone existed around 1.1850-1.1900 which has prevented further bearish decline for sometime. However, as bullish momentum started to fade away, more bearish visits were expected to challenge these historical low levels. Shortly after, Quick bearish decline was executed towards 1.1075 & 1.0860 where significant Fibonacci Expansion levels are located. Based on the upcoming price action and the next weekly candlestick closure, the next target level for the GBP/USD pair can be determined. If the current bullish movement above 1.0600 is maintained for some time, there would be a high chance for further bullish continuatio at least towards 1.1765. Otherwise, another bearish pullback towards 1.0600 should be expected for another BUY Entry. Relevance up to 18:00 2022-10-11 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/296187

The word recession is starting to appear more and more often not only in the media, but also in the statements of the most important institutions and people in the world. Recently, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank warned of a global recession, and now also the CEOs of the largest banks are echoing. Recession in the USA? JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Monday that the US economy "is still doing well" but expects it to enter a recession in the next nine months, BBN reported. Dimon warned that high inflation and rising interest rates, as well as the uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine, are "very, very serious things that I think will probably push the United States and the world - I mean Europe is already in recession - and they're likely to put the United States into some kind of recession six to nine months from now. " Several US Federal Reserve officials said that the US could still avoid recession, and some stressed that even if the economy slipped into a recession, the bank should not stop at rate hikes. Source: Conotoxia MT5, US500, Weekly What do Fed officials say about economic growth? Federal Reserve vice chairwoman Lael Brainard said on Monday that the US central bank's move to tighten monetary policy would have a full impact on economic activity "in the coming quarters" and its pressure on prices "may take longer," the BBN news service said. "The transmission of tightening policies is most evident in highly interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as housing," but the "moderate demand" that the Fed wants to see across the US economy, "so far has materialized only partially," she explained in a speech out of 64. The annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics in Chicago, Illinois. Due to rising interest rates and changes in general financial conditions, "rebound in the second half of the year will be limited" and "real GDP growth will be broadly flat this year," Brainard said in a statement quoted by the BBN. Recession -what could it mean for the markets? Looking at business cycles, the documented economic recession phase could be characteristic of the late bear market phase. This may mean, in turn, that previously markets were in a bear market awaiting a recession. When this one actually shows up, the bear market may be in its final stage. Nevertheless, the bottom of a bearish market may also depend on how long the recession will last, how many quarters it will take, and how deep it will be.   Daniel Kostecki, director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Cinkciarz.pl investment service) The above commercial publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for information purposes and should not constitute the basis for making investment decisions. Neither the author of the study nor Conotoxia Ltd. are responsible for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained in this publication. Copying or reproducing this work without the written consent of Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Read more on Conotoxia

  Bitcoin continues to trade in almost absolute flat. It hasn't moved much in the last few weeks. In the last few days, it has been moving along the downward trend line on the 24-hour TF, so there is still hope that this line will remain relevant, and with it, the downward trend has been maintained for almost a year. However, this requires the cryptocurrency to overcome the $18,500 level. There have been several attempts to go below this level, but none have succeeded. If the price nevertheless overcomes the trend line, we remind you, this will not be considered a buy signal, since this signal will be formed in a total flat. In this case, the price will remain inside the side channel of $ 18,500-$24,350. Therefore, the side channel will be the priority. There will not be many important events this week that can affect the movement of the entire cryptocurrency market, particularly bitcoin. We have already said that the ordinary news of the cryptocurrency sphere does not affect the "bitcoin" movement. Therefore, it doesn't even make much sense to analyze them. Global events and reports can move bitcoin from the "dead point" to which American inflation can be attributed. Recall that in the last two months it has been showing a slowdown, which is a positive effect that gives market participants hope for the completion of an aggressive Fed rate hike over the next 6 months. However, this is still a very long period during which the rate will increase.     Most experts, including us, agree that at the next Fed meeting, the rate will rise by 0.75% for the fourth time in a row. Inflation has slowed down too weakly to talk about a softening monetary approach. By the way, the last two Fed rate hikes did not provoke the collapse of bitcoin. But at the same time, the euro and the pound, along with the US stock market, continue to fall. Therefore, there is a feeling that a new fall in bitcoin will happen in the near future. Thus, we are still waiting for the quotes of the first cryptocurrency in the world to reach $ 12,426. In the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of "bitcoin" could not overcome the $ 24,350, but they also could not yet overcome the $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, we have a side channel and it is unclear how much time Bitcoin will spend in it. We recommend not rushing to open positions. It is better to wait for the price to exit this channel, and only then open the corresponding transactions. Overcoming the $18,500 level will take you to the $12,426 level.   Relevance up to 17:00 2022-10-12 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324013

USD/CAD has reclaimed the immediate hurdle of 1.3800 after a knee-jerk reaction. Market mood is getting mixed which advocates volatility ahead. Oil prices drop after the IMF cuts 2023 GDP projections. The USD/CAD pair has recovered sharply after a knee-jerk reaction to near 1.3783 in the early European session. The asset is aiming to knock the day’s high at around 1.3830 as the overall risk profile is extremely negative ahead of the US inflation data. The 10-year US Treasury yields have recovered some of their losses after dropping to near 3.9%. The mighty US dollar index (DXY) has also picked bids after dropping to near 113.00, however, confidence in the rebound move is absent. It would be worth watching whether the asset will recapture its fresh weekly highs at 113.60. This week, the mega event will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will release on Thursday. As per the preliminary estimates, headline inflation will drop to 8.1% due to weak gasoline prices. While, the core CPI that doesn’t inculcate oil and food prices for calculation will release at 6.5%, higher than the prior print of 6.3%. But before that, the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes will be keenly watched. The minutes will also provide viewpoints of all Fed policymakers toward interest rate targets for bringing price stability. On the oil front, oil prices have dropped sharply to near $87.00 after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cuts global growth projections. The institution has trimmed its 2023 global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast to 2.7%, 20 basis points (bps) lower than expectations made in July, keeping the 2022 projections unchanged at 3.2%. It is worth noting that Canada is the largest exporter of oil to the US and weak oil prices will weaken Canada’s fiscal balance sheet.

Financial markets, especially in the United States, which appear less affected by the energy crisis than Europe's, seem to be waiting for important inflation data. Today, information will be published showing the price increases faced by producers (PPI inflation), while tomorrow there will be data on consumer inflation (CPI). Inflation data and expectations Before we move on to the discussion of the latest inflation data or the market consensus for the current reading, we can take a look at several other data, the task of which may be to express an opinion on the expected future inflation. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that the median of one-year inflation expectations fell by 0.3 percentage points to 5.4 percent, the lowest value since September 2021. A survey of consumer expectations conducted by the New York Fed in September 2022 also showed that the three-year inflation expectations rose by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9 percent, and the five-year one rose by 0.2 percentage point to 2.2 percent, the BBN website reported. Household spending expectations, on the other hand, have plunged sharply, recording the largest one-month decline since the franchise was launched in June 2013, the New York Fed wrote in a report. Source: Conotoxia MT5, XLY, W1 Limited disposable income and its possible impact on the market The US economy appears to be largely based on consumption, including consumption on credit. Currently , such consumption seems to be slowing down due to the increase in food prices or higher costs of maintaining a household. In turn, Americans' disposable income has decreased. This may mean that consumers shift their spending from goods that they do not need to live, towards basic necessities. This could be also seen in the strong weakness of the ETF DMA quotations on the XLY Consumer Discretionary, i.e. the ETF with exposure to companies producing so-called discretionary goods. In other words, they are goods without which we can live in worse times, and they make our lives easier in better times. XLY fell 35% from its peak to yesterday's close, more than the broad S&P500 index, which fell 25%. Source: Conotoxia MT5, W1 This may quite show that high inflation may inhibit purchases of unnecessary goods, and its fall could fuel this demand again. We will find out about inflation in the US in September tomorrow at 14:30 GMT + 2. This may be one of the most awaited macroeconomic data of the week. Today, in turn, apart from the publication of PPI inflation, the market will learn in the evening the minutes of the last FOMC meeting (20:00 GMT + 2). Daniel Kostecki, director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Cinkciarz.pl investment service) The above commercial publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for information purposes and should not constitute the basis for making investment decisions. Neither the author of the study nor Conotoxia Ltd. are responsible for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained in this publication. Copying or reproducing this work without the written consent of Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Read more on Conotoxia

Today, mainly important reports from the United States will appear. The report on inflation and the number of requests for unemployment insurance may significantly affect traders and give a picture of the condition of the US economy. On the old continent, we will mainly focus on the result of the German CPI. German CPI The monthly change and the annual consumer price index met expectations. The monthly change in the German CPI reached 1.9% and rose from 0.3%. Similarly, there was an increase in the annual change of the CPI from the level of 7.9% to the level of 10.0%. Switzerland Producer Price Index There were no forecasts for the Switzerland Producer Price Index. The monthly price of the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers rose from -0.1% to 0.2%. After weak readings in July and August, this is a positive signal for this sector. On the other hand, the PPI YoY fell by 0.1%, thus reaching the level of 5.4%. BOE Credit Conditions Survey The Bank of England (BoE) will published the results of their Credit Conditions Survey for Q3, 2022. The bank conducts such research every quarter. As part of the Bank of England mission to maintain monetary and financial stability, the bank conducts research to understand credit trends and changes. Today's quarterly survey of construction banks and lenders contributes to this work. The survey covers: Secured and unsecured loans to households. Loans for non-financial corporations, small businesses and non-bank financial companies. Speeches of the day At 8:00 CET the first speech of the day was the speech from Germany. The speaker was President Nagel. He is also voting member of the ECB Governing Council. He's believed to be one of the most influential members of the council. For this reason, his speech may significantly affect the monetary situation of the euro zone. The next speech will be from the Bank of England which is set at 13:00 CET. Dr Catherine L Mann serves as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England. Her public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. US Core CPI The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The current reading of the indicator is expected to decline by 0.1% to 0.5%. The previous reading was at 0.6% and it was an increase from the July drop (0.3%). On the other hand, the annual change in the index is forecasted at 6.5%. And it may mean an increase from the level of 6.3%. US CPI Today the US inflation report will be published. This report can significantly impact the foreign exchange market. Read more about forecasts for the current level: https://www.fxmag.com/forex/inflation-report-ahead-what-might-it-look-like-in-the-united-states-u-s-cpi US Initial Jobless Claims There will also be a weekly report on the number of unemployment insurance applications today. The previous reading was negative as it rose to a higher level than expected. Current forecasts show a further increase in this number from 219K to 225K. The expected further negative results in a row may translate into deterioration of the economy in this sector. Crude Oil Inventories The weekly report about change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms will be published at 17:00 CET. Forecasts for this period show an increase from -1.356M to 1.750M. The increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. Summary 8:00 CET German Buba President Nagel Speaks 8:00 CET German CPI (YoY) (Sep) 8:00 CET German CPI (MoM) (Sep) 8:30 CET Switzerland PPI (MoM) (Sep) 10:30 CET BOE Credit Conditions Survey 13:00 CET BoE MPC Member Mann 14:30 CET US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 14:30 CET US Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) 14:30 CET US CPI (MoM) (Sep) 14:30 CET US CPI (YoY) (Sep) 14:30 CET US Initial Jobless Claims 17:00 CET Crude Oil Inventories Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

As I mentioned in yesterday's article, the Fed's key rate decisions are in the spotlight. If earlier some traders expected a shift to a softer stance, now everyone is betting on further tightening. The regulator is likely to raise the interest rate at least 3 more times at its meetings. Some analysts reckon the Fed may continue to hike rates in 2023. At the start of this year, the Fed planned to raise the benchmark rate to 3.5%. Now, many Fed officials expressed the need to hike the key rate to 4.5%. If inflation does not begin to decline at the pace set by the central bank, the watchdog may switch to aggressive tightening. The Fed's top priority is to tame inflation to 2%. However, the central bank admits that it may take years. Notably, inflation is not only an economic issue but also a political one. If Joe Biden's administration fails to slow down soaring consumer prices, the Democrats may lose their majority in the Senate and Congress. This is why Joe Biden and the Democratic Party need to push inflation down as soon as possible. The Fed is an independent organization. Yet, it should also achieve some positive shifts in the fight against inflation as confidence in the central bank has declined sharply during the pandemic and in the years after the pandemic. The inflation report is due tomorrow. Analysts do not expect a noticeable slowdown. The reading is likely to decline by 0.1-0.2% on an annual basis. Yesterday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that the Fed is still unable to cap galloping inflation. "Unacceptably high and persistent inflation remains the key challenge facing the US economy. Despite some moderation on the demand side of the economy and nascent signs of improvement in supply-side conditions, there has been no progress on inflation," Mester said. When inflation comes down, the Fed will hold interest rates at high levels for some time to assess the cumulative impact of what the Fed has done. "Monetary policy is moving into restrictive territory and will need to be there for some time in order to put inflation on a sustained downward path to our 2% goal," she said, adding "I do not anticipate any cuts in the fed funds target range next year." In my opinion, the Fed is ready to raise the interest rate even above 4.5%. If this scenario comes true, demand for the US currency may climb even more. The US dollar is steadily growing amid monetary tightening. So, it may rise even higher amid sharper rate hikes. If traders have already priced in the likelihood of the rate increase to 4.5%, they may factor in a bigger rate increase. If investors have ignored two ECB rate hikes and seven Fed rate hikes, then they may continue to do so in the coming months. I believe that the US currency is likely to reach new highs. In this case, the current wave markup of the euro/dollar pair is correct. However, the wave markup of the pound/dollar pair needs adjustments with the construction of a downward trend section. I believe that there is a construction of a downward trend section now but it may end at any moment. The instrument could complete another upward correction wave. So, I advise selling with the target level located near 0.9397, the Fibonacci level of 423.6%. The MACD indicator is pointed downward. It is better to be cautious as it is unclear how long the euro may decline.     Relevance up to 06:00 2022-10-14 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324167

The Federal Reserve is faithful to aggressive monetary tightening despite cooling down in the labor market and a slowdown in the US economic growth. The Fed's minutes of the September policy meeting released on Wednesday confirms the case that the Federal Reserve would continue its aggressive monetary policy on track in the long term until inflation declines to the annual target rate of around 2%. In this context, the US inflation data which is due today will determine the next Fed's policy move in terms of the rate hike's degree. According to the consensus, the annual CPI is expected to edge down in September to 8.1% following an 8.3% increase in August. On the contrary, the CPI could have climbed 0.2% on month following a 0.1% uptick in August. The actual CPI readings will be on tap tonight. The factory inflation data released on Wednesday was dismal. Instead of the expected decline to 8.4% on year from 8.7% in the previous month, the actual PPI slipped to 8.5% in September. Besides, the PPI grew to 0.4% on month against the expected 0.2% rise. How are financial markets and the currency market in particular likely to respond to the data on consumer inflation? I assume that if the actual score reveals a similar dynamic as the factory inflation, namely a notably increase in September and the annual print higher than expected, the stock market will respond with a new wave of sell-offs. The commodity market will also be hit by selling. In contrast, the US dollar will again receive support as a safe haven asset. In turn, stock indices will creep down because stocks will come under pressure from rising borrowing costs. Commodities can be also weighed down by the fact that the global economy is on the verge of a recession. Yields of the benchmark 10-year Treasuries could surpass the landmark level of 4% and grow higher which is another serious factor to reinforce the greenback's strength. Intraday outlook EUR/USD The currency pair is consolidating slightly above 0.9670. The news of inflation acceleration in the US could boost demand for the US dollar. As a result, EUR/USD could break this level and fall to 0.9550. USD/CAD The currency pair is trading with minor fluctuations and might extend its growth to 1.3950 after the level of 1.3850 is broken after the release of the US inflation data.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-10-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324181

USD/CAD trims a part of its modest intraday gains, though the downside remains cushioned. A goodish bounce in crude oil prices underpins the loonie and acts as a headwind for the pair. Aggressive Fed rate hike bets continue to lend support as traders await the key US CPI report. The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick and retreats a few pips from the daily high touched during the early European session. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.3800 round-figure mark as investors prefer to stay on the sidelines and brace for the crucial US consumer inflation figures. In the meantime, a goodish recovery in crude oil prices seems to underpin the commodity-linked loonie and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. The fundamental backdrop, however, still seems tilted in favour of bullish traders and supports prospects for an extension of the recent rally from the 1.3500 psychological mark. Hence, any meaningful pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited. Investors remain worried that a deeper global economic downturn and a resurgence in COVID-19 cases in China will hurt fuel demand. In fact, OPEC on Wednesday lowered its global oil demand growth estimates for both 2022 and 2023. This, to a larger extent, overshadows the initial enthusiasm over the OPEC+ decision last week to slash production by the most since the 2020 COVID pandemic and should cap any meaningful recovery for the black liquid. The US dollar, on the other hand, is seen consolidating its recent gains recorded over the past week or so, though remains well supported by more hawkish cues from the Federal Reserve. In fact, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting on September 20-21 released on Wednesday showed that officials remain committed to raising interest rates to curb inflation. Hence, the focus remains glued to the crucial US CPI report, due later during the early North American session. Given that US Producer Price Index climbed more than expected in September, investors anticipate consumer inflation to remain stubbornly high and reinforce the Fed's hawkish rhetoric. This, in turn, favours the USD bulls and adds credence to the near-term positive outlook for the USD/CAD pair. That said, repeated failures to make it through the 1.3840-1.3850 supply zone warrant some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move.

US consumer price inflation surprised on the upside once again as rapid increases in housing costs, medical care, food and airline fares offset signs of moderation elsewhere. The Fed has admitted it is prepared to inflict economic pain to get a grip on inflation and today's report will ensure at least another 75bp rate hike in November and 50bp in December 6.6% Highest "core" inflation rate since August 1982   Sticky inflation means the Fed has more work to do Once again US consumer price inflation has come in higher than expected with headline prices up 0.4% month-on-month in September (consensus 0.2%) and core – ex food and energy – up 0.6% MoM (consensus 0.4%). This means the annual headline rate slows to 8.2% from 8.3% while core rises to 6.6% from 6.3%, having been down at "just" 5.9% in July. With core inflation heading in the wrong direction (and at its highest rate since August 1982) and yesterdays’ Fed minutes to the September FOMC meeting warning that doing too little to tame inflation is worse than too much, it confirms that a 75bp interest rate increase on November 2nd is the minimum expectation with markets now pricing in the slight possibility of a 100bp hike. Annual US headline and core inflation rates Source: Macrobond, ING 75bp the minimum for November, but 100bp is only a small chance Looking at the details, housing continues to big a major story with shelter (32.5% weighting) rising 0.7% MoM yet again. while medical care costs, which have been posting some solid price increases over the past six months, rose 0.8%. Airline fares were up 0.8% while food prices increased 0.8% on the month. On the softer side were gasoline (-4.9% MoM) while apparel prices declined 0.3% and used car prices fell for the third month in a row. Recreation and education/communication rose only 0.1% MoM each, weaker than we had expected. It is therefore a slightly more mixed picture than just looking at the headline and core MoM's with pricing power appearing to be softening in some components. Why we favour 50bp in December Nonetheless, the increase in the annual rate of core inflation is not a good story and the Federal Reserve has stated it is willing to inflict economic pain to get inflation moving back to the 2% target. 75bp is indeed the solid call for the November 2nd FOMC meeting, but we are still looking for the Fed to slow the pace to a 50bp in December (market is pricing just over 60bp, indicating a close call as to whether we get a fifth consecutive 75bp move). Our rationale is that the economy is slowing and there is more evidence pointing to weakening corporate pricing power. The National Federation of Independent Business survey shows the proportion of companies looking to raise their prices is moderating quickly to reflect the shifting growth outlook and rising inventory levels, that they don’t want left on their books. Corporate pricing power may be waning Source: Macrobond, ING   Moreover, we think used car prices have much further to fall based on the Manheim car auction price data (4% weighting in the inflation basket) while slowing global chip demand suggesting new vehicle production issues (new vehicles also have a 4% weight) are possibly moderating, paving the way for more supply and less inflation. Shelter could be key to lower inflation The key swing story is going to be shelter though given it is the largest component of inflation. Historically the shelter series lags behind movements in house prices by around 12-14 months, but over the past week rent.com, apartments.com and CoStar Group have all been reporting rent price falls in major cities. House prices only started falling in July so this could imply a quicker transmission. US rent CPI components lag turning points in house prices Source: Macrobond, ING   A possible reason is that rents have risen so much on top of a broad cost of living increase. This is leading to fewer “household formations” – basically people can’t afford rent so are cohabiting with friends/family leading to less demand for apartments and prices are already dropping. We will see how this develops, but like the corporate pricing and the vehicle stories we still think the risks are skewed towards inflation falling more quickly through 2023 than the consensus. Read this article on THINK TagsUS Recession Inflation Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

U.S. consumer prices added 0.4% in September, versus a forecast of 0.2% and an increase of 0.1% a month earlier. Annual inflation slowed from 8.3% to 8.2% versus the expected 8.1%. Yesterday's more vital producer price readings suggested the possibility of such an outperformance. Record-breaking US inflation However, the continued run-up in core inflation has caused a real market storm. Excluding food and energy prices, inflation accelerated from 6.3% to 6.6%, a new record since 1982. Suddenly it appeared that the peak of consumer inflation had not yet been passed. While the markets viewed the Fed's statements as aggressively hawkish, the inflation update sparked speculation that it could be worse. CME's FedWatch Tool now lays out a 92% chance of a 75-point rate hike in early November, giving the remaining 8% chance of a 100-point tightening. We recall that since last Friday, the market had been pricing in an 18% chance of a 50-point rate hike and an 82% chance of a 75-point hike. Read next: Morgan Stanley Talks Stock Market | Fiserv - Newest Payments Company In German Market FXMAG.COM As a result of the rapid revaluation, Nasdaq100 futures have lost 3% since the beginning of the day and 4.5% from their peaks just before the release. This index has pulled back to July 2020 levels in the 10,500 area. The S&P500 pulled back to 3,500, making a frighteningly decisive move lower under the 200-week moving average. This key benchmark of U.S. markets erased all the gains made since Biden became president. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar index returned to 113.50, a two-week high, 1 per cent below the 20-year highs posted late last month. It once again appears in the markets that inflation data could trigger a new wave of tightening rhetoric from the Fed, prompting everyone to expect higher rates and faster than previously estimated.

USD/CAD extends the previous day’s pullback from 29-month high, pokes 50-SMA of late. Bearish MACD signals, sustained break of an ascending trend line from September 13 keeps sellers hopeful. Buyers need to provide a daily close beyond 1.3865 to retake control. USD/CAD takes offers to refresh intraday low around 1.3710 during early Friday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Loonie pair stretches Thursday’s losses while poking the 50-SMA support. It’s worth noting, however, that the bearish MACD signals and the pair’s sustained downside break of the one-month-old ascending trend line favor sellers of late. With this, the USD/CAD bears are on the way to an upward-sloping support line from September 14, near 0.9670, a break of which will make the quote vulnerable to refresh the monthly low, currently around 1.3500. Alternatively, recovery moves need to cross the previous support line from mid-September, close to 1.3745 at the latest. Even so, a 12-day-old ascending resistance line of around 1.3865 could challenge the USD/CAD buyers. Following that, a run-up towards the latest swing high near 1.3980 and then to the 1.4000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Overall, USD/CAD is likely to witness further downside but the bullish trend is far from reversing. USD/CAD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further weakness expected

The highest core US inflation since 1982 has seen expectations of the terminal Fed rate push close to 4.90%. Despite the wild and ultimately positive gyrations in asset markets yesterday, the core narrative will remain one of the Fed continuing to push real rates and the dollar higher. A strong US September retail sales figure today should support the $ USD: Highest core inflation in 40 years As James Knightley noted in his review of the September US CPI release, core inflation has not been this high since 1982. This suggests there will be no letup in the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and, consequently, markets are still searching for the terminal rate of this Fed hiking cycle. Those trying to pick a top in the cycle are continuing to be swept away. From pricing the Fed terminal rate at 4.45% barely two weeks ago, 23 March Fed fund futures now price the top near 4.90%. The poor inflation print saw some immediate bearish flattening of the US 2-10 year Treasury curve (US two-year Treasury yields are now 4.45% having started the year at 0.75%) and a broadly stronger dollar – yet the dollar rally quickly reversed as equities turned sharply higher. Presumably, positioning had something to do with this, where buy-side surveys show investors have: a) the most underweight equities ever and b) the most overweight cash (6%) since October 2001. More than $260bn has left equity mutual funds this year and we can only guess that some investors used the CPI event risk as an opportunity to feed money back into equities. Yet the core narrative remains that the Fed will want higher real rates for longer to fight the biggest inflation threat since the early 1980s, and the dollar should continue to find good support on dips. 111.50/112.00 may be enough of a correction for DXY and some decent US data later today may be enough to give the dollar a lift. We have September US retail sales and consumer confidence. James Knightley thinks that retail sales could come in on the strong side given good car sales data and lower gasoline prices. It was also interesting to see JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon say that he felt that US consumer spending could hold up for nine more months, given high savings and low debt levels – sentiments echoed in the recent FOMC minutes. On the subject of US banks, today sees third-quarter earnings releases from JPM, Citi, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley. We're no equity strategists, but it seems hard to expect a sustainable equity rally from here given what the Fed is planning to do with real rates. Read next: Cheaper Netflix Is Here!| Jim Cramer Comments On The Shares| FXMAG.COM Chris Turner EUR: Led by sterling EUR/USD is currently being dragged around by UK asset markets and the pound. Reports yesterday that ECB staffers felt that the ECB terminal rate could be somewhere near 2.25% versus the nearly 3% priced by the market had little effect on EUR/USD. Instead, EUR/USD sits comfortably in a bearish channel that has guided it lower all year – running at roughly -5% per quarter! The top of that channel is now around parity and should be the extent of any unforeseen short squeeze here. There is not much eurozone data today but an expected August trade deficit of €45bn is a far cry from the €20bn+ surpluses run in early 2021 and is a reminder that the euro no longer has the backing of a large current account surplus. 0.9850/70 may be the extent of any intra-day EUR/USD correction. Chris Turner GBP: BoE holds government toes to the fire One cannot help but think the Bank of England (BoE) has played the poor hand it has been given quite well in potentially forcing the government into a U-turn on fiscal policy. There is no confirmation of such a policy shift yet, but no doubt Twitter will nearly break today on speculation of a shift in policy or personnel. Central bank independence is hard won and the BoE has clearly not wanted to succumb to accusations of government financing. GBP/USD continues to trade on a super-high one-week realised volatility near 20%. We suspect that GBP/USD may struggle to break the 1.15 area. Will it trade back to 1.20, where it was before fears of a Liz Truss government started to hit the Gilt market? Probably not. Equally, EUR/GBP was trading at 0.84 in early August and we would say the political risk premium and a difficult external investment environment will make it hard for EUR/GBP to sustain a move under 0.8550/8600. Chris Turner  CHF: What to make of USD/CHF at parity? Apart from (reasonably successful) currency floors in EUR/CHF and EUR/CZK over recent years, it is hard to think of any successful 'lines in the sand' in global FX markets. Global capital and trade flows are simply too large for central banks to defend one particular level – as we see with USD/JPY now grinding to 147.50, well above the Bank of Japan's 145.70 intervention level in late September. But what about the 1.00 level in USD/CHF? Yesterday was the third time this year that it reversed sharply from levels just above 1.00. Could the Swiss National Bank (SNB) be at work here? Recall that the dollar is the second-largest weight in the Swiss franc trade-weighted basket and a higher USD/CHF will naturally weaken the nominal trade-weighted Swiss franc – something the SNB wants to avoid as it battles inflation. In fact, SNB president Thomas Jordan is turning into one of the most ardent hawks in the central bank community. We have quite a forthright view on EUR/CHF at the moment that the SNB wants to guide it lower by 5% plus per year. The higher USD/CHF is making the trade-weighted Swiss franc even softer and if we are right in our analysis, the SNB should be even more inclined to drive EUR/CHF down to 0.95 and away from the near 0.98 levels at which spot EUR/CHF trades today. Chris Turner Read this article on THINK TagsFX Dollar CHF Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Today's retail sales report shows that nominal spending is flat to slightly higher, but with inflation running hot, real consumer spending is barely treading water. Third-quarter GDP growth expectations need to be trimmed further and with the Fed still hiking interest rates aggressively the 2023 recession fears are undoubtedly intensifying Spending growth not keeping pace with price increases The US September retail sales report is not terrible, but it doesn’t exactly instill confidence either. Headline sales came in on the softer side at 0% month-on-month versus expectations of a 0.2% increase, but the "control" group, which strips out some of the volatile series and typically better matches with broader consumer spending trends rose 0.4% MoM (consensus 0.3%) and there were some decent upward revisions. The key point though is that this nominal spending growth is not keeping pace with inflation. It implies that volume numbers are under massive pressure and recession risks are growing well before the full effects of Federal Reserve rate hikes are felt. Mixed outcomes by sectors Delving into the details, auto sales fell 0.4% MoM despite volumes rising decently. This is a little odd given this would imply price discounting yet yesterday’s CPI report noted a 0.74% MoM increase in the price of new vehicles. We therefore have to assume people are downsizing to cheaper, more economical vehicles. Miscellaneous stores saw sales fall 2.5%, furniture fell 0.7%, electronics were down 0.8%, gasoline fell 1.4% and sporting goods sales dropped 0.7%. Offsetting this was a 0.5% increase in non-store retail, a 0.5% increase in clothing and health/personal care plus a 0.7% increase in general merchandise. Retail sales breakdown Source: Macrobond, ING GDP expectations continue to be trimmed Nonetheless, remember today’s report is all based on nominal dollar growth figures. Yesterday's inflation number showed prices rising 0.4% MoM (and core 0.6%), so sales growth appears even at the "control" group level to be all down to price rises, implying the real (volume) spending growth is effectively zero. Remember that real consumer spending growth was -0.1% MoM in July, +0.1% in August and if we get a zero for September, this works out at real consumer spending growth of just 0.6% annualised. This would be the weakest reading since the -32% annualised drop in the second quarter of 2020 as the pandemic led to the shutdown of the physical economy and implies more cuts to third quarter GDP expectations. We will be lucky to get 1% growth at this rate. With the Fed still hiking interest rates aggressively officials are right to warn of more economic pain to come. Read this article on THINK TagsUS Retail sales Recession Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Trading in the financial markets in the second half of the year is pure pleasure. The stock indices of the US and EURUSD step on the same rake with enviable frequency, counting on a dovish reversal where it does not even exist. Even the acceleration of US core inflation to 6.6% in September, the highest mark in 40 years, was seen as a command to euro fans. Where, where are you heading, fools? When the probability of a 75 bps hike in the federal funds rate in December jumps from 35% to 65%, and its ceiling rises from 4.5% to 5%, selling the US dollar is absolutely the wrong strategy. The US currency is enjoying well-deserved popularity in 2022 due to the aggressive tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and high demand for safe-haven assets due to recurrent stresses. Why get rid of it if the rate of monetary restriction is increasing, and there is no end in sight to the problems? The same crisis in the British debt market that has swept through global bonds in waves is far from over. Bond yield dynamics The government of British Prime Minister Liz Truss decided to turn it into a farce. They say that it is not the mini-budget that is to blame for the shocks, but the Bank of England, which raised rates more slowly than the Fed. In fact, as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says, during a period of monetary policy normalization, care must be taken to shift the focus of fiscal policy towards measures that keep debt sustainable. And what about Germany, which has announced a €200 billion stimulus package to support households hit by the energy crisis? A new fire could break out in the eurozone debt markets. So it turns out that problems arise in the eurozone, and investors flee from them to America. This leads to the strengthening of the US dollar no less than the monetary policy of the Fed. Which, by the way, does not think to slow down. What did the financial markets come up with amid the acceleration of US inflation, but their next campaign against the Fed will most likely end in another fiasco. Of course, EURUSD's paradoxical rise in response to strong core inflation figures can be blamed on the "buy the dollar on the rumor, sell on the facts" principle, but smart people don't do that. They prefer to wait until the bears throw away the ballast, unsure of the continuation of the downward trend of traders, and then move down again. In the end, nothing has changed. The eurozone economy looks worse than the American one, the Fed is already wrapping up the balance sheet, while the ECB is going to start doing this only in 2023, the armed conflict in Ukraine is not over, and there is no end in sight to the energy crisis. Technically, on the EURUSD daily chart, the bulls are trying to start a correction. Their failure to do so will result in the pair closing below the moving average near 0.978. If this happens, the euro will need to be sold on a break of the fair value of 0.97.   Relevance up to 15:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324375

USD/CAD has resumed the downside journey after the termination of the short-lived pullback. The emergence of the risk-on impulse has weakened the safe haven’s appeal. A bleak economic outlook is weighing pressure on oil prices. The USD/CAD pair has displayed a less-confident pullback after printing an intraday low of 1.3812 in the Asian session. The asset is expected to resume its downside momentum after the termination of the pullback as the risk impulse rebounded after turmoil on Friday. S&P500 is withholding its gains recorded on early Monday despite rising bets for a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed). The US dollar index (DXY) is displaying a subdued performance as the appeal for safe-haven has been trimmed. Due to a light US economic calendar, the focus will remain on commentaries from Fed policymakers and geopolitical tensions. The 10-year US Treasury yields are also oscillating below the critical hurdle of 4%. This week, Canada’s inflation data will be of utmost importance. The headline Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure is expected to decline to 6.8% from the prior release of 7.0%. Also, the core CPI data may trim by 20 basis points (bps) to 5.6%. The Bank of Canada (BOC) is accelerating its interest rates vigorously and has reached 3.25% as price pressures are deteriorating the economic fundamentals for the longer term. The central bank is entirely focusing on bringing price stability and ignoring current economic prospects. On the oil front, oil prices have rebounded after printing a fresh two-week low at $84.72. Investors are discounting the bleak growth outlook amid escalating policy tightening measures by the central banks. Apart from that, the continuation of the no-tolerance approach towards Covid-19 by China has kept a lid on the oil demand. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the US and weak oil prices are weakening the Canadian dollar.

US house prices fell for the first time in more than 10 years in July – we expect the market will slow further with declines in both existing home sales and house starts. For the UK, we see headline and core inflation rates edging higher. However, we believe we are now very close to the peak, given the government's decision to cap household energy bills In this article US: Housing market showing weakness UK: Fiscal U-turn in focus as Bank of England intervention ends Source: Shutterstock US: Housing market showing weakness The latest job and inflation readings have cemented expectations of a 75bp hike from the Federal Reserve on 2 November and heightened the chances of a fifth consecutive 75bp hike in December. However, we still favour the Fed slowing the pace of hikes to 50bp on 14 December given the intensifying economic headwinds that should allow inflation to fall quickly through 2023. The housing market is going to be a key factor in this. House prices fell for the first time in over 10 years in July as the surge in mortgage rates prompted a collapse in housing demand. Things have got much worse since then with mortgage applications for home purchases at the lowest level since the housing bear market of 2010-13. With more supply coming on the market the challenge to sell homes is going to increase, which will weigh further on prices and lead to another sharp fall in home builder sentiment this week. Homebuilding looks set to slow further with existing home sales declining too. This is bad news for construction, confidence, job creation and retail sales tied to housing transactions such as building supplies, furniture, home furnishings and household appliances. However, it may well help to get inflation lower more quickly and allow the Fed to reverse course on its aggressive interest rate increases next year. Shelter accounts for a third of the inflation basket by weight and historically the shelter series lags behind movements in house prices by around 12-14 months. Over the past couple of weeks rent.com, apartments.com and CoStar Group have all been reporting rent price falls in major cities so this could imply a quicker transmission. We will see how this develops, but with surveys suggesting that corporate pricing and vehicle prices are showing signs of softening, we think the risks are skewed towards inflation falling more quickly through 2023 than the consensus. UK: Fiscal U-turn in focus as Bank of England intervention ends Markets have been buoyed by reports that the UK government is preparing a major U-turn on its tax cut plans, which were announced in September and brought widespread disruption to UK bond markets. On paper, the resumption of the planned hike in corporation tax – if done in full – coupled with a revenue cap/windfall tax on renewable and perhaps nuclear energy producers, could materially reduce the government’s borrowing requirement over the next couple of years. But with the Bank of England ending its temporary bond buying scheme, investors will need to see these press reports crystalise into concrete and far-reaching plans this weekend to avoid a renewed sell-off in gilts next week. Further volatility is likely in either case, and we still think there’s a fair chance the BoE will at the very least need to further postpone its plans to start selling bonds later this month – not least because of the challenging environment created by ongoing Fed tightening. Further bond buying also shouldn’t be ruled out. All of this will also help determine just how aggressively the BoE will need to hike rates in early November. By that point we’ll have had the government’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan (ie the full extent of any U-turns) and depending on whether we see a renewed period of sterling weakness between now and then, there’s a chance the BoE may be able to get away with a 75bp hike rather than the 100bp move we’ve been pencilling in. Next week’s CPI data is unlikely to be the main decider here, but for what it’s worth we see both the headline and core rates edging higher. However, we think we are now very close to the peak, given the government’s decision to cap household energy bills. Key events in developed markets next week TagsUS UK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

October 17, 2022  $GBP, $USD, Bank of Canada, BOJ, China, Currency Movement, Federal Reserve, Hungary, Intervention, SNB, UK Overview: The markets have returned from the weekend with a greater appetite for risk. Equities and bonds are rallying, and the dollar is better offered. China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Indian bourses advanced. Mainland shares edged higher even though Zhengzhou, a city of one million people, near an iPhone manufacturing hub was locked down due to Covid. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up nearly 0.5% to extend its recovery into a third session. US futures are trading a little more than 1% higher. European benchmark bond yields are 10-12 bp lower and the 10-year US Treasury yield is seven basis points lower to 3.95%. The reversal of the UK’s fiscal policy and a new Chancellor of the Exchequer has seen British Gilts rally strongly. The 30-year Gilt that traded briefly above 5.0% last week is off 34 bp today to 4.44%. A break of 4.25% would target 4.0%. Sterling is leading the major currencies higher today with around a 1% gain. The greenback is trading lower against all the major currencies, though it is virtually flat against the yen. Emerging market currencies are more mixed. Asian currencies are mostly softer, while the South African rand and Mexican peso join the central European currencies moving higher. Gold has stabilized after falling nearly 3% last week. It is approaching $1660, and the nearby cap is seen closer to $1670. December WTI is little changed. It fell 7.3% last week after rallying 16% the previous week on OPEC+ cuts. US natgas is off 3.4%. It gapped lower and is at its lowest level since mid-July. Natgas prices in Europe are tumbling as a cap is being discussed. Europe’s benchmark is at its lowest level since late June. It is down 4% today. It fell 9% last week, for its seventh consecutive weekly decline. Iron ore prices fell 2% today, giving back the pre-weekend gains in full. December copper is about 0.25% firmer, recouping half of what it lost ahead of the weekend. December wheat is starting the new week with a 1.4% advance after tumbling 3.6% at the end of last week. Asia Pacific Xi's speech at the 20th Party Congress in China seemed to offer little but a new confirmation of the current trajectory. In some ways, leaving out the political structure (I know, it is a bit like asking Mrs. Lincoln, "despite that, how was the play?), Xi sounded like many leaders of other countries while underscoring that economic development was the top priority. He talked about "common prosperity" limiting income and wealth inequality, recognizing markets' decisive role in allocating resources, and that housing is "for living not speculating." Reports indicate that in his two-hour speech, Xi had a section on "human capital." Xi's views on welfare are not so different than many liberals and neo-liberals in the US and Europe, and on more than one occasion, he has warned that welfare supports "lazy people."  Xi's emphasis on self-reliance (the word counters say he said it twice after not citing it at all in his 2017's speech) may be a recognition of the US tightening technology noose. Earlier this month, the Biden administration took the strongest steps to block China from developing start-of-the-art semiconductor capabilities, which have dual use--civilian and military. The full ramifications of the latest US controls are still rippling through the industry. Still, it appears that US citizens, including green card holders, cannot support the development or production of semiconductor chips at many (28) Chinese firms, which means employment and sales, shipping, servicing, and support. Taiwan's intelligence estimates that around 200 US passport holders are employed in Chinese semiconductor companies. It will work through third countries too. Even though the US is not the center of chip fabrication that it once did, US software is critical in chip design. Some pundits claim this "coup-de-grace" is a significant blow to this key industry. As the share prices have shown, it will also hurt several US chip companies. There is some speculation that the Bank of Japan may be intervening quietly and read into the BOJ's daily balances, the possibility that it sold a little less than $7 bln dollars to defend the yen. The first intervention last month was a record near $20 bln. To go from trying to muscle the market to quietly offering support to the yen seems unlikely. Moreover, the whipsaw in the exchange rate that is the intervention hypothesis is supposed to explain took place after the stronger than expected US CPI figures on October 13 in the North American session. That said, the Ministry of Finance Kanda did warn last month that "stealth" intervention was possible and that official confirmation would not always be provided. If the BOJ did intervene, which we doubt, did not have much impact. The dollar reached JPY148.85 ahead of the weekend more than a full yen higher than seen on October 13. It is in a little less than half-a-yen range today below JPY148.80. If we are right that intervention in Japan's time zone, then the dollar is likely to make its highs in Europe or North America. The Australian dollar rose to a marginal new high for the week ahead of the weekend before reversing and settling on its low slightly below $0.6200. It is trading with a firmer bias today, though it stalled near $0.6250 in the European morning, where options for A$465 mln expire today. A bit higher, $0.6270 are another set of options for nearly as much (~A$425 mln) will also roll off. The greenback remains firm against the Chinese yuan and is trading above CNY7.20. The high from late September was a little above CNY7.25. As expected, the benchmark Medium-Term Lending Facility rate was unchanged at 2.75%. The PBOC has steadied the daily dollar fix to around CNY7.10 and continued today with a CNY7.1095 reference rates. The median in Bloomberg's survey was for CNY7.1977. This appears to be the widest gap. Reports suggest that Chinese state banks swapped yuan for dollars in the forward market and sold dollars in in the onshore market to support the yuan. Europe The SNB has tapped the Fed's dollar-swap line for the past two weeks. On October 5, nine counterparties took $3.1 bln; last week, 15 institutions got $6.27 bln for a week. There are two general views. The first sees it as troublesome and an expression of the global stress being stoked by the reduction of dollar liquidity and growing systemic risks. A large Swiss bank has been the subject of rumors and speculation for weeks, but the number of counterparties suggests something more/bigger. The second view the use of US swap lines to secure the dollar as part of an arbitrage-like opportunity. Taking the dollars from the SNB's swap line, swapping them for Swiss francs, and depositing them with the SNB is a nearly risk-free pickup of an estimated 40-50 bp. Earlier, a similar type of arbitrage seemed to drive dollar-based investors' demand for Japanese government bonds. Then, the currency swap was greater than the bond's interest rate. Separately, while much of the coverage of central bank intervention has focused on Asia, some suspect the SNB may have quietly sold dollars near CHF1.00. The idea is that the SNB has become particularly hawkish and wants to resist currency weakness. The dollar is the second most important currency for Switzerland. Total sight deposits fell 3% last week, which one would expect amid dollar-selling intervention. Still, as we have previously suggested, it is also consistent with the SNB's efforts to mop up excess liquidity. Total sight deposits have fallen by nearly 20% over the past four weeks or CHF134.7 bln. When the UK government scrapped the cut to the highest marginal tax, many said it was a U-turn. We thought it was a relatively small dilution of its fiscal thrust. The shift before the weekend to embrace the Johnson/Sunak corporate tax increase is more significant and cost Chancellor Kwarteng his job. Hunt, whose fellow MPs rejected his bid to be Prime Minister, is the new Chancellor. Reports suggest he is committed to delivering the fiscal statement on October 31. Hunt may drop the one-percentage point cut in income tax that was to be implemented next year. The focus shifts from taxes to spending. One issue is whether welfare payments will be raised to blunt inflation, as Johnson had promised. Hunt is expected to make a statement late in the UK morning on measures to support fiscal sustainability and then will address the House of Commons a few hours later. Hungary surprised the market before the weekend. Last month, it signaled that it was done lifting rates and would focus on draining liquidity. The central bank introduced a new one-day deposit facility at 18%, compared with the base rate of 13%. It also indicated that it would use reserves to counter the rise in energy prices. That could cost around $1.5 bln a month. As a result, the forint recovered by about 4.2% against the euro ahead of the weekend. There has been no follow-through forint buying today and the euro recovered from about HUF416.35 to HUF419.25 before steadying in the European morning.  The euro held above the pre-weekend low slightly below $0.9710. Then it rallied nearly half a cent through the European morning. A consolidative tone is threatening. Last Thursday and Friday's high were recorded a little above $0.9800 and this remains the nearby cap. Options for almost 1.6 bln euro struck at $0.9800 expire on Thursday. Sterling is up around a cent in the European morning around $1.1275. It did initially slip through the pre-weekend low to dip below $1.1150 but recovered quickly. The high from the end of last week was $1.1365-80 this needs to be overcome to lift the tone and signal a re-test on the $1.1500 area. America The robust September employment data was followed by a stronger-than-expected CPI and respectable retail sales (0.4% core and August revised to 0.2% from 0). Despite the lagged nature of the data points, if the Fed were to say to its critics that after raising the Funds target by 225 bp and doubling the pace of the balance sheet unwind over the past 100 days, we venture that interest medium-and long-term US rates would rise rather than fall. Core CPI is at a new cyclical high. Headline inflation is higher. Frankly, the Federal Reserve seems to be moving in the opposite direction. Encouraged by Bullard, the market will take more seriously the chances of a 75 bp hike in December after a 75 bp hike in early November. The October Empire State manufacturing survey is on tap today (unlikely to be a big market mover), and while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak, the revelation that Bostic may have violated the Fed's trading rules is being discussed by market participants. Bostic and Kashkari speak tomorrow ahead of the Beige Book on Wednesday. The combination of stepped-up hawkish rhetoric by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, despite words of caution from the IMF about risks of recession from the collective hikes, and the prospects of a more aggressive Fed has lifted expectations for a 75 bp hike next week. After the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by a quarter-of-a-point, some observers thought it was a tell for a more moderate pace by Canada. Still, Macklem put that to bed, The market accepted that a 50 bp was most likely, but in recent days, expectations for a 75 bp move have increased. The swaps market now sees about an 78% chance of another three-quarters point move. Firmer equities can help the Canadian dollar pare last week's 1% decline. The Canadian dollar fell to new two-and-a-half-year lows in the middle of last week. Trading remained choppy in the second half of the week and the greenback finished slightly below CAD1.39. It has not been above CAD1.3880 today and there are options for nearly $900 mln at CAD1.3900-05 that expire today. We suspect that they may have been neutralized ahead of the weekend. A break of CAD1.3800 could spur a move toward CAD1.3740-50 today. The greenback is offered against the Mexican peso, and it is approaching the lower end of its recent trading range. It has not traded below MXN19.9350 this month, but a break could signal a move to the bottom of the wider range, which extends to around MXN19.80. It is a quiet week for Mexican data and the highlight is the August retail sales report on Friday. A small rise is expected.    Disclaimer Source: Sterling and UK Debt Market Respond Favorably to the Return of Orthodoxy - Marc to Market

Eyes on the Sterling Pound as new chancellor set to make announcement The pound remains in the spotlight this week as investors await today's speech from the new chancellor Jeremy Hunt where is expected to announce the new budget and tax plans after the recent plans caused a noticeable drop in confidence towards the currency. While there may be a possibility for some surprises in today's statement, expectations remain for a U-turn on several measures previously announced in an attempt to reassure markets about the financial stability of the economy. The pound started the day trading higher reaching 1,125 against the US dollar while the UK FTSE index pulled back slightly after an initial upward move which saw it briefly break above 6900 points and any unpredicted announcement could cause a significant reaction across asset classes. Read next: Netflix Stock Price May Tumble Tomorrow! What Can We Expect From NFLX Earnings? | FXMAG.COM Oil prices attempt to rebound at the start of the week Despite the announcement of a further cut to OPEC+ production in the most recent meeting, oil prices failed to gain momentum and after a brief attempted recovery remained stuck in the previous consolidation area. WTI prices are down around 1,50% after a short upward move this morning which was facilitated by a temporary weakening of the US dollar, which has been putting pressure on commodity prices in recent times. However, the situation appears to be changing as the dollar has once again started to garner some strength and is once again pressuring other currencies as well as commodities like oil. Prices could continue to be volatile in the near future as general economic uncertainty and investor sentiment continue to play a key role in price action while investors await macroeconomic reports and central banker speeches during the week, along with earnings reports from major Wall Street companies. Oil WTI prices are hovering in an interesting technical position as they test a short term support area around $84,50, which managed to limit the most recent downward movement. If this area is broken, it may lead to the start of a bigger move which may result in further speculation regarding the upcoming production targets set by OPEC+.

USD/CAD drifts lower for the second straight day and is pressured by a combination of factors. An uptick in oil prices underpins the loonie and exerts pressure amid a modest USD weakness. Aggressive Fed rate hike bets, recession fears should limit the USD downside and cap the major. The USD/CAD pair adds to the previous day's heavy losses and remains under some selling pressure for the second successive day on Tuesday. The intraday downfall drags spot prices closer to mid-1.3600s, or a one-and-half-week and is sponsored by a combination of factors. The prevalent risk-on environment - as depicted by a strong follow-through rally in the equity markets - continues to weigh on the safe-haven US dollar. Apart from this, a modest recovery in crude oil prices, bolstered by a softer buck, underpins the commodity-linked loonie and contributes to the offered tone surrounding the USD/CAD pair. That said, the prospects for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed should act as a tailwind for the greenback and help limit deeper losses for the USD/CAD pair, at least for the time being. In fact, the markets seem convinced that the Fed will continue to hike interest rates at a faster pace to combat stubbornly high inflation. The fed funds futures indicate a nearly 100% chance of another supersized 75 bps rate increase at the next FOMC policy meeting in November. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and favours the USD bulls. Apart from this, growing recession fears should cap the latest optimism in the markets and benefit the safe-haven buck. Investors remain concerned about economic headwinds stemming from rising borrowing costs, China's zero-COVID policy and geopolitical risks. Furthermore, expectations that a deeper global economic downturn will dent fuel demand should cap the black liquid. This, in turn, supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the USD/CAD pair. Market participants now look to the US economic docket, featuring the release of Industrial Production data and Capacity Utilization Rate for some impetus later during the early North American session. Traders will further take cues from oil price dynamics for short-term opportunities, though the focus will remain on the Canadian CPI report on Wednesday.

A reversal in UK fiscal policies, some stability in equity markets, and a dip in European energy prices point to a further corrective period in FX markets. The dollar could weaken a little further, but the core bull trend should remain intact In this article USD: Corrective forces may dominate short term EUR: Terms of trade go into reverse GBP: Don’t chase sterling higher MXN: Interesting carry USD: Corrective forces may dominate short term Measures of the trade-weighted dollar index are around 2.5% off their highs of the year. The correction has nothing to do with any softening of Federal Reserve tightening expectations. Here the market firmly expects the Fed to hike 75bp on 2 November and prices a terminal rate as high as 4.90% next spring. Instead, we would say three factors are behind this current dollar correction. The first is the reversal in UK fiscal policy. The much-maligned policy that garnered criticism at the IMF meetings has been largely reversed. This has brought some calm to global bond markets (Gilt instability had been dragging US Treasuries lower). Our rates strategy team does not see UK 10-year Gilt yields racing a lot further under 4.00%, though reports of the Bank of England delaying the start of its quantitative tightening Gilt sales programme should be helpful. Equally, it may be too early to expect US 10-year Treasury yields to drop back to the 3.75% or 3.50% area if the market is still searching for the top in Fed funds near 5%. The second factor is global equity markets. It is very early days, but the MSCI world equity index is now 5% above last week's lows, with the S&P 500 rallying another 2.6% yesterday. Global asset managers, positioned very underweight equities and overweight cash, could be putting money to work and are wary of the seasonal factors, where the S&P 500 index has rallied in nine of the last ten Novembers. How far the equity rally continues remains to be seen - but so far 3Q US earnings have been encouraging (only 29% of those reporting so far have missed on expected sales numbers, with only 24% missing on earnings). And the third factor is energy. European gas prices continue to sink on warmer weather and European gas storage facilities being largely full. Lower gas prices are allowing a drop in electricity prices, where German one-month forward power prices are just 50% above early June levels, compared to being three times higher in late August. The drop in energy prices is reversing the negative income shock that hit energy importers over the summer and reduces the dollar's advantage. A quiet week for US data could see the dollar correction extend a little. High beta currencies which trade on higher implied volatilities, eg AUD, NZD, NOK, SEK and possibly GBP may outperform during this period. And the case could be made for DXY heading back to 110 (another 2% drop). But a core view of not just the Fed, but other central banks hiking into a looming recession should mean that the core dollar bull trend remains intact. Chris Turner  EUR: Terms of trade go into reverse EUR/USD went under parity in late August largely driven by the negative terms of trade shock of higher energy prices. That energy shock is temporarily going into reverse as European gas prices drop sharply on the warmer weather and European governments having largely achieved their gas storage targets. It would thus be churlish of us to suggest that EUR/USD does not need to rally. A quiet week for US data (just soft US housing) and the conditions we outlined above, therefore, create a corrective window for EUR/USD, where an obvious target is the top of this year's bear channel at around the 0.9980/1.0000 area. We would assume that this continues to hold the correction.  Elsewhere today we have the German ZEW investor survey, which should continue to decline.  And we also have some ECB speakers in Gabriel Makhlouf (1540CET) and Isabel Schnabel (1900CET). The core ECB message at the moment seems to be the need to get the policy rate (deposit rate now 0.75%) as quickly as possible to 2% and then take stock from there. Chris Turner GBP: Don’t chase sterling higher As new UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt carefully claws back all the fiscal giveaways offered in late September, the question is how far should sterling now rally? Taking the UK sovereign credit default swap as a benchmark for levels of UK fiscal anxiety, one could mark out dates around mid-September (GBP/USD at 1.15) and the third week in August (1.18) as possible targets – representing brief periods of stability before Trussonomics hits home. While there may be some more fiscal positives to come were the Conservatives to look at a windfall tax on the energy companies, we suspect cable will struggle to sustain gains over 1.15 this month. News that the UK government is shortening the period of the Energy Price Guarantee to six months from two years may not be greeted well by the consumer and also raises the prospect of UK inflation staying higher for longer. Equally, the Fed terminal rate has been priced close to 100bp higher over the last month. We think higher US real rates have contributed to the size of the sell-off in UK asset markets. There are no signs that the Fed wants to reverse this rise in real interest rates anytime soon. And one month GBP/USD implied volatility (now at 16% versus a peak near 22% in late September) may struggle to return to pre-crisis levels of 12% - confirming that trust is hard won and easily lost. Chris Turner MXN: Interesting carry Given the prospects of a brief corrective period in the dollar, interest may return to the carry trade. The highest available carry in the FX space can be found in Eastern Europe (Hungarian forint one month implied yields pay a staggering 16.5% per annum) and also the Latam currencies. However, we think Central and Eastern European FX still carries a lot of risks currently. The Mexican peso also has an attractive carry, with one-month implied yields are 10.2%. Banxico continues to move in lock-step with the Fed. Whilst investors could miss out on some larger nominal appreciation elsewhere, Mexican peso positions may have lower draw-downs if things went wrong. Spot USD/MXN could even make a run to 19.80 as well. Chris Turner Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Stocks rose on Monday, primarily due to the start of the corporate reporting season. Clearly, investors are no longer focusing only on increasing interest rates, high inflation and deteriorating world economy, but also on the performance of companies. This inspires optimism in the market, which decreases negative sentiment and brings back demand for shares. Thus, the stock markets in Europe and the US showed a noticeable increase, while US treasury yields have stalled and are not going anywhere after their recent growth. For example, the yield of 10-year bonds hit 4% and so far could not consolidate above it. This, in turn, puts pressure on the dollar, prompting a rise in other currencies paired with it. Considering that there is a two-week time lag until the Fed's meeting in November, investors have more time to win back losses. This may start today, during the European session, and may extend amid positive dynamics of US stock indices. Of course, the dollar will be affected negatively, but there is still the need to buy it because there are too many factors that do not allow it to decline fully. Most likely, further aggressive rate hikes by the Fed and the presence of high demand will keep it afloat for a long time. Forecasts for today: AUD/USD The pair failed to overcome 0.6330, which reinforces the existing downward trend. If this continues, the quote will fall to 0.6220. USD/CAD The pair is testing the level of 1.3715. A rise above it could lead to a further increase to 1.3885.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-10-20 UTC+00 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324580

Economist at UOB Group Enrico Tanuwidjaja reviews the latest trade balance results in Indonesia. Key Takeaways “Sep’s trade surplus came in at USD5bn and with that, Indonesia’s cumulative trade surplus this year up to Sep 22 widened to just a touch below USD40bn. We believe it will exceed that mark by the end of this year and clinch a historic high for Indonesia’s trade position, currently already at record high.” “However, exports and imports growth came in below expectations at 20.3% and 22.0% y/y respectively, well below forecast of 28.6% and 33.4% by a wide margin. Exports stood at USD24.8bn in Sep and imports at USD19.8bn.” “Non-oil & gas exports continued to drive overall exports down while oil & gas imports remained elevated, though the latter was slightly down amidst easing crude oil prices.”  

Summary:  We have seen some wild swings in risk sentiment in recent days, with the USD first jerked one way and then the other, all while the JPY continues to fall broadly and set new lows versus even a shaky US dollar today as it appears Bank of Japan governor is willing to go down with the YCC ship and longer US treasury yields remain pinned near the cycle highs. Elsewhere interesting relative moves in Aussie and kiwi overnight on dovish RBA minutes and a hot NZ CPI print. FX Trading focus: Whiplash for USD traders, JPY continues plunge. Yesterday saw a bizarre melt-up in risk sentiment that took the USD down a few notches. There was no readily identifiable trigger for the sentiment shift yesterday, which could be related to heavy derivatives exposure and stretched sentiment. Even for the relatively near term, it is hard to see a meaningful USD turnaround without anticipation that the Fed is set to ease up on its tightening message, with the chicken-and-egg dilemma that it will likely only do so once employment indicators (badly lagging) are headed clearly south. A considerable portion of the USD weakness yesterday was against sterling, with GBPUSD managing to back all the way up above 1.1400 in late trading. Sterling even made a bid at breaking through pivotal levels in EURGBP, although that move has been corralled for now (low near 0.8575 – trading well above 0.8700 as of this writing). It is interesting to see headlines attributing the latest sterling surge to FT sources indicating that the Bank of England will delay any attempt to do QT for now (The BoE pushed back against that story this morning). Sure, the recent sterling recovery was achieved as the new UK Chancellor reversed most of Truss’ budget-busting initiatives, and on the Bank of England bringing emergency liquidity and indicating it would be will to hike as much as necessary to stabilize markets at the next meeting. When you ease the liquidity crisis in the proverbial burning theater, sterling can stabilize. Stabilization will not necessarily lead to a strong new rally. As for the QT, it would be a sign of ongoing fragility if the BoE was to fail to carry out any QT for now, not a source of sterling strength. We may have seen the top in GBPUSD here unless this strange melt-up in risk sentiment extends. Elsewhere, interesting to note that despite a weak US dollar yesterday and into this morning, the Japanese yen remains resolutely weak, with new highs in JPY crosses and even USDJPY again today (although possible signs of intervention as I am writing today’s report – more in the chart discussion below). Bank of Japan governor Kuroda remains unmoved, arguing for no change in policy once again overnight and saying that inflation would eventually fall back even if currency weakness risked aggravating inflation levels and telling a lawmaker who asked that he resign that he has no plans of quitting. Have to believe the next round of intervention may be coming up soon for JPY crosses, but speculators may be smelling blood after the prior round failed to impress beyond a few hours, as noted below. Chart: USDJPYIn posting a USDJPY chart today, I was originally going to ask whether intervention is on the way, given we were posting new highs in USDJPY this morning and nearing the 150.00 level. Then, what might be intervention or what might be a nervy market over-reacting to large transactions materialized suddenly, with all JPY crosses dipping suddenly and violently, only to recover much of the lost ground within minutes. Official intervention would more likely have driven a larger move. Let’s recall what happened the last time the BoJ intervened a few weeks ago, when USDJPY challenged above the important 145.00 area resistance at the time: an initial low was posted within an hour just below 141.00 and then a few hours later that low was slightly exceeded before the rebound back to more or less unchanged within two days. Working against the intervention efforts was a fresh rise in global bond yields at the time – a factor that will continue to overwhelm any intervention efforts as long as long yields stay here or run higher still. But safe to say that the threat of official intervention makes tactical trading a risky business. Source: Saxo Group An interesting session overnight for AUDNZD as the RBA minutes highlighted concerns that the steep pace of rate tightening in this cycle will heavily impact the Australian consumer, particularly as floating rate mortgages reset in the months ahead. In New Zealand, the release of the much hotter than expected Q3 CPI data jolted RBNZ rate expectations sharply higher, with solid odds now for the first 75 basis point move for the cycle from the RBNZ next month. AUDNZD pounded lower overnight, trading well below 1.1100 at times, but I wonder how much more the market can get out of this correction. I still see the relative current account trajectory as an important factor – will look for support to come in soon as the rate spread likely can’t get much more stretched in the kiwi’s favour and shouldn’t matter that much in the mix anyway. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.Awaiting the USD status again after this latest sell-off as the secular rally remains intact – would have to see above 0.9900 and even parity in EURUSD and USD weakness elsewhere to suggest a larger scale consolidation afoot. Note the CNH level in USDCNH terms as the action remains pinned in the 7.20+ area there and USDJPY applies further pressure to USD/Asia. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Interesting to see if GBP rolls over now to weakness in GBPCHF, EURGBP and GBPUSD terms. GBPUSD just flipped to positive as of yesterday’s close, but hasn’t broken above 1.1500 resistance – the chart is neutral within this range and tilts more negative back below 1.1000 again. Elsewhere, NOKSEK could be set for a challenge lower after an interesting sell-off today – trend is neutral and awaiting new momentum. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1215 – Canada Sep. Housing Starts 1315 – US Sep. Industrial Production 1400 – US Oct. NAHB Housing Market Index 1600 – ECB's Schnabel to speak 2130 – US Fed’s Kashkari (voter 2023) to speak Source: FX Update: Whiplash for USD traders, JPY remains in dumps. | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Indices trading higher as US earnings season ramps up European indices started the day with upbeat moods and are trading higher following the positive performance by US and Asian markets which saw Nasdaq reach the highest level in ten days after breaking through a previous resistance area. Despite this, the situation remains quite volatile and we could see a major shift in moods as investors follow macroeconomic data and major Wall Street earnings reports with Netflix expected to publish their report today. Furthermore, investors continue to monitor the political and economic turbulence surrounding the UK which saw the new chancellor announce a U-turn on the majority of measures previously announced by this newly formed government in an attempt to stabilize currency and stock markets. Despite a lack of major economic data today, investors will certainly have a lot to keep an eye on as the geopolitical and economic situations continue to develop and as uncertainty continues to dominate the market.  Read next: Commotion Around Ethereum. "Most Favorable Crypto Economies" - Germany, Switzerland And Australia| FXMAG.COM Commodities remain stuck in consolidation range as dollar attempts to rebound While the recent weakness seen from the US dollar has led to a recovery in commodity prices and cryptocurrencies, it appears that today might see some unexpected movements across markets while the greenback is attempting to rebound from the lowest levels in around ten days as general market moods showed signs of improvement. Oil prices remain stuck in their recent trading range and while they appear to be slightly pulling back at the beginning of the European session, there is still room for a potential recovery as they test an important support which has managed to hold the price for the last several days and as concerns about supply remain. Meanwhile, gold prices are also struggling to initiate a significant upward move as they continue to hover in the $1650 area after retreating slightly and as they await a catalyst for significant momentum shift. The situation appears to be similar when it comes to cryptocurrencies with Bitcoin still hovering under the key $20,000 level as it trades about 2,70% below that while Ethereum trades around the $1320 mark after testing the highest level since the end of last week. It seems clear that commodity prices continue to be highly related to the US dollar's performance and any major shakeup in sentiment towards the greenback may lead to a cascading effect across asset classes. Read next: JP Morgan Net Income Over $9B | Kanye West Is Buying Parler| FXMAG.COM

USD/CAD struggles to extend the recovery from two-week low, grinds near intraday top. US readiness to use SPR to battle OPEC+ supply cuts weighs on oil prices. Sluggish markets restrict immediate moves but firmer yields tease DXY buyers. With the BOC’s likely softer rate hike than the Fed’s the pair buyers remain hopeful. USD/CAD steadies near 1.3750 amid sluggish markets during Wednesday’s European morning. In doing so, the Loonie pair seesaws around intraday high while trying to stretch the previous day’s rebound. The quote’s resistance to decline could be linked to the latest retreat in oil prices, due to Canada’s reliance on WTI crude oil export, as the US eyes releasing more oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to battle the OPEC+ supply cut. WTI crude oil remains mildly bid at the fortnight low marked the previous day, retreating to around $83.70 at the latest. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up bids while tracking the recently firmer US Treasury yields. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields added two basis points (bps) near 4.02% mark at the latest. The market’s inaction could be linked to the lack of major data/events, as well as mixed catalysts surrounding China and Russia. That said, the recently mixed covid numbers from China join Russia’s strong fight in Ukraine to challenge the sentiment. However, upbeat earnings and hopes of more stimulus from Beijing, Tokyo and the Eurozone keep the riskier assets firmer. On the same line could be the UK’s optimism due to the recent U-turn from the fiscal policies. Elsewhere, Fed bets and the comments suggesting heavy rate hikes from the US central bankers underpin the US Treasury yields and the DXY of late. Earlier in the day, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said, “Until I see some compelling evidence that core inflation has at least peaked, not ready to declare a pause in rate hikes.” With this, the CME’s FedWatch Tool signals that markets are pricing in a nearly 95% chance of the Fed’s 75 rate hike in November. It’s worth noting that the latest second-tier data from the US and Canada have been mixed but the Bank of Canada (BOC) and the Fed have both shown readiness to battle inflation and increase the benchmark rates. Even so, the hawkish pace at the Fed is much stronger than the BOC and hence the USD/CAD pair is likely to witness further upside if today’s Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) eases. Forecasts suggest the CPI ease to 6.8% from 7.0% prior while the closely watched BOC CPI could also decline to 5.8% YoY versus 5.6% previous readings. Technical analysis Given the bearish MACD signals and the confirmation of the five-week-old rising wedge formation on Monday, USD/CAD is likely to remain on the bear’s radar unless it successfully crosses the 1.3850 immediate hurdle comprising the wedge’s lower line.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Seiji Adachi is back on the wires this Wednesday, noting that “recent yen fall are very rapid,” which “could heighten uncertainty for firms planning capex.” Additional comments “Japan's consumer inflation may accelerate quite rapidly in Oct.” “Japan's inflation to remain high for some time early next year.” “Don't see immediate need to take additional steps to address worsening functioning of JGB market.” Market reaction These comments have little to no impact on the Japanese currency, as it resumes its drop versus the US dollar in early Europe. The pair is trading modestly flat at around daily highs of 149.30, as of writing.

The dollar's correction due to the growth of risk appetite is unlikely to last for a long time, as today the mood in the investor environment is dejected, and the US currency index turned up from weekly lows. The index rose above 112.00 on Wednesday amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to implement its aggressive plans to tighten measures to reduce inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's latest commentary suggests that interest rates may need to be raised above 4.75% if core inflation continues to pick up. The dollar also continues to prevail as a safe haven currency amid deteriorating global growth prospects. Earlier this week, it came under pressure, including amid solid earnings reports and a sharp turn in UK fiscal policy. The US currency remains stable against the euro and the pound, while a new high has been updated against the yen. The Japanese currency will fall to 32-year lows, despite the possibility of intervention from Japan. However, today the Japanese central bank once again made it clear that it is not worth waiting for monetary support. According to Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, monetary policy is not directed directly at Forex. "It is advisable to maintain easing to support the economic recovery, as the uncertainty around the Japanese economy is extremely high," the official said. At the same time, he made it clear that intervention against "excessive weakening of the yen was very appropriate." As for other world currencies, the dollar weakened against the New Zealand and Australian counterparts. It is expected that the central banks of their countries will keep pace with the cycle of tightening the Federal Reserve's policy. The Fed's attitude Forecasts regarding the threshold of the US central bank rate hike vary. The increase, according to available estimates, can reach up to 5%, but this is not the limit. Judging by the new information that has appeared on the web, the rate hike may reach up to 9%, it all depends on how the inflation card will fall. Someone sees the peak of inflation. Perhaps there are reasons to believe so, perhaps this is just a reflection of a great desire. Anyway, we'll find out about it soon. Wall Street and the dollar index are now trading in line with expectations of a 1.5% rate hike. If inflationary pressure does not stop and price growth continues to go up, the Fed will have to raise the bar. At the moment, a number of indicators, including Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, indicate the passage of an inflationary peak. If so, then the dollar has no reason to conquer new heights. Given that the markets live by expectations, there may be a pullback of the US currency index from the current borders altogether, as investors will decide to bet on a more dovish approach of the Fed. Rate hike to 9% The new monthly report of Bank of America reflected the complete pessimism of investors regarding the prospects of the stock market and the growth of the global economy. A record number of respondents (83%) expect economic growth to weaken and corporate profits to fall in the next 12 months. The lion's share of market professionals are set to continue the decline in stocks. It will be possible to talk about reaching the bottom only within the framework of 2023. All short rallies have been and will be held on Wall Street exclusively in the bear market. The reversal of the currency and stock markets will occur only when the Fed refuses to raise rates further or, at least, slows down their increase. The increase in interest rates to 9% was announced by the well-known investor Mark Mobius. This is the highest level in three decades. The US central bank will have to take such a step, because it needs to stop the record rise in consumer prices for 40 years, the investor believes. It is advisable to raise the rate higher than the current inflation. Since it currently stands at 8%, the rate should be 9%, the billionaire explained in an interview with Bloomberg. He also made it clear that he does not expect a decrease in inflation in the coming months.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-10-20 UTC+00 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324720

The dollar's correction due to the growth of risk appetite is unlikely to last for a long time, as today the mood in the investor environment is dejected, and the US currency index turned up from weekly lows. The index rose above 112.00 on Wednesday amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to implement its aggressive plans to tighten measures to reduce inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's latest commentary suggests that interest rates may need to be raised above 4.75% if core inflation continues to pick up. The dollar also continues to prevail as a safe haven currency amid deteriorating global growth prospects. Earlier this week, it came under pressure, including amid solid earnings reports and a sharp turn in UK fiscal policy. The US currency remains stable against the euro and the pound, while a new high has been updated against the yen. The Japanese currency will fall to 32-year lows, despite the possibility of intervention from Japan. However, today the Japanese central bank once again made it clear that it is not worth waiting for monetary support. According to Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, monetary policy is not directed directly at Forex. "It is advisable to maintain easing to support the economic recovery, as the uncertainty around the Japanese economy is extremely high," the official said. At the same time, he made it clear that intervention against "excessive weakening of the yen was very appropriate." As for other world currencies, the dollar weakened against the New Zealand and Australian counterparts. It is expected that the central banks of their countries will keep pace with the cycle of tightening the Federal Reserve's policy. The Fed's attitude Forecasts regarding the threshold of the US central bank rate hike vary. The increase, according to available estimates, can reach up to 5%, but this is not the limit. Judging by the new information that has appeared on the web, the rate hike may reach up to 9%, it all depends on how the inflation card will fall. Someone sees the peak of inflation. Perhaps there are reasons to believe so, perhaps this is just a reflection of a great desire. Anyway, we'll find out about it soon. Wall Street and the dollar index are now trading in line with expectations of a 1.5% rate hike. If inflationary pressure does not stop and price growth continues to go up, the Fed will have to raise the bar. At the moment, a number of indicators, including Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, indicate the passage of an inflationary peak. If so, then the dollar has no reason to conquer new heights. Given that the markets live by expectations, there may be a pullback of the US currency index from the current borders altogether, as investors will decide to bet on a more dovish approach of the Fed. Rate hike to 9% The new monthly report of Bank of America reflected the complete pessimism of investors regarding the prospects of the stock market and the growth of the global economy. A record number of respondents (83%) expect economic growth to weaken and corporate profits to fall in the next 12 months. The lion's share of market professionals are set to continue the decline in stocks. It will be possible to talk about reaching the bottom only within the framework of 2023. All short rallies have been and will be held on Wall Street exclusively in the bear market. The reversal of the currency and stock markets will occur only when the Fed refuses to raise rates further or, at least, slows down their increase. The increase in interest rates to 9% was announced by the well-known investor Mark Mobius. This is the highest level in three decades. The US central bank will have to take such a step, because it needs to stop the record rise in consumer prices for 40 years, the investor believes. It is advisable to raise the rate higher than the current inflation. Since it currently stands at 8%, the rate should be 9%, the billionaire explained in an interview with Bloomberg. He also made it clear that he does not expect a decrease in inflation in the coming months.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-10-20 UTC+00 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324720

Inflation in the world continues to rise, while the world's largest central banks continue to fight it. Central banks have chosen to raise interest rates as one of the main means of this struggle, and so far, judging by the continued growth of the curve reflecting inflation, this struggle does not bring tangible results. On Monday, Statistics New Zealand reported that consumer inflation increased by +2.2% in the 3rd quarter (with a forecast of +1.6% and against the previous value of +1.7%). The annual CPI came out with a value of +7.2% (with a forecast of +6.6% and against the previous value of +7.3%). We wrote about this in our previous review. Today, the Office for National Statistics published fresh data on consumer inflation in the UK. They were also underwhelming, posting a rise in September CPI from +9.9% to +10.1% YoY. The updated CPI for the Eurozone, which was also published today, also recorded an increase in inflation in the region in September at +9.9% YoY, although it turned out to be slightly weaker than the preliminary value of 10.0%. Today (at 12:30 GMT), inflation data in Canada will be presented by Statistics Canada together with the Bank of Canada. The publication of inflation data is very important for economists, market participants, and central bankers. Consumer prices account for the bulk of headline inflation and estimating the rate of inflation is important in setting the parameters for a central bank's current monetary policy. Given that the inflation target for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1%–3%, the growth of the indicator (CPI and Core CPI) above this range is a harbinger of a rate increase and a positive (under normal economic conditions) factor for the CAD. Previous base CPI values (from the Bank of Canada): 5.8%, 6.1%, 6.2% (annualized). The indicator is expected to decrease to 5.6%. On the one hand, the decline in inflation in the face of its high level is a positive factor for the national economy. But on the other hand, it is still high, which continues to put pressure on the BoC to further increase the interest rate. In other words, it may be difficult to predict the market reaction to this publication. The Canadian dollar may both strengthen, especially if the CPI figures turn out to be higher than expected, and weaken, given the current drop in oil prices as well. By the way, today (at 14:30 GMT), the US Department of Energy will present its weekly report on oil reserves in the country's storage facilities. So, during this period of time, the USD/CAD pair may swing again. The next meeting of the Bank of Canada is scheduled for October 26. Assessing the reaction of the Canadian dollar to the results of the September meeting of the Bank of Canada (it first strengthened, and then continued to sharply weaken against the US dollar), it would probably be logical to assume further growth in the USD/CAD pair, also taking into account the fall in oil prices, stock indices and expectations of the development of the Fed's aggressive monetary policy. On Friday, Statistics Canada is to release its Retail Sales Index, which is a major measure of consumer spending. The index is considered an indicator of consumer confidence, also reflecting the state of the retail sector in the short term, and its possible fall (after falling by -2.5% in July) could provoke a weakening of the Canadian dollar and, accordingly, an increase in the USD/CAD pair, which has been in a steady upward trend since mid-August. As of writing, it is trading near the 1.3751 mark, through which there is an important short-term support level. Its breakdown and the breakdown of the local support level 1.3657 may provoke a deeper decline, but so far only as a correction. In general, the USD/CAD bullish trend prevails.   Relevance up to 12:00 2022-10-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324743

USD/CAD pushed higher earlier in the day but has pared most of those gains. In the North American session, the Canadian dollar is trading at 1.3757, up o.17%. Canada’s CPI ticks lower Headline inflation ticked lower to 6.9% in September, down from 7.0% in August. Still, the reading was higher than the consensus of 6.8%. Core inflation remains even more stubborn, rising to 6.0%, up from 5.8% and above the forecast of 5.6%. The inflation report takes on added significance as the Bank of Canada meets next week, and as is the case with most major central banks, the question is not if rates will rise, but by how much. The Bank will be unhappy with core inflation rising, although I doubt this was much of a surprise for Bank policy makers, as most BoC core inflation indicators are around 6%. The takeaway from the inflation data is that there will be more support for a 75 basis point hike, as opposed to a 50bp move, with inflation remaining stubbornly high. With the Federal Reserve possibly looking at a 75bp rate hike in November, a matching hike from the BoC will prevent the US/Canada rate differential from widening, which is good news for the Canadian dollar. The BoC’s aggressive rate tightening has pushed the economy closer to a recession, but inflation remains public enemy number one for the Bank, which means more oversize rate hikes are on the way. In the US, the Fed’s rate tightening has led to the economy showing signs of cooling down, such as the housing market. The NAHB housing market index fell for a 10th straight month, dropping to 38 in October, down from 43 in September. USD/CAD Technical 1.3927 and 1.4024 are the next resistance lines There is support at 1.3744 and 1.3647 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canadian dollar yawns after inflation report - MarketPulseMarketPulse

USD/CAD pares intraday gains inside a three-day-old triangle formation. RSI conditions, 50-HMA add to the downside filters. Bulls need a successful break of 1.3800 for conviction. USD/CAD grinds lower around 1.3770 during early Thursday morning in Europe, after a two-day uptrend, as traders await a clear break of immediate triangle support. In doing so, the Loonie pair portrays the market’s indecision. Other than the three-day-old symmetrical triangle’s support line, the firmer RSI (14) also keeps the USD/CAD buyers hopeful. Even if the quote drops below 1.3765 immediate support, it needs validation from the 50-HMA support of 1.3750 to convince the USD/CAD sellers. In that case, the pair could quickly drop to the weekly low near 1.3655 before declining toward the monthly low surrounding the 1.3500 round figure. Meanwhile, recovery moves need to cross the aforementioned triangle’s resistance line, around 1.3800 by the press time, to recall the USD/CAD buyers. Following that, 1.3900 and the monthly high near 1.3980 could entertain the bulls before flashing the 1.4000 mark on the chart. It’s worth noting that the USD/CAD pair’s successful run-up beyond 1.4000 won’t hesitate to aim for the May 2020 high near 1.4175. To sum up, USD/CAD is likely to remain on the bull’s radar despite the latest inaction. However, a downside break of 1.3750 might trigger a short-term correction. USD/CAD: Hourly chart Trend: Bullish

The fight against inflation is much softer in the eurozone than in the United States because of the risk of a social crisis, analysts at Natixis report. The US government and central bank are not afraid of a social crisis “The US strategy is to rapidly reduce inflation, whatever the cost of this strategy (loss of household purchasing power, increase in unemployment), and this strategy can be implemented due to the lack of risk of a social crisis even if households suffer from this policy of rapid inflation reduction.” “The eurozone’s strategy is to reduce inflation very slowly, with the ECB hiking interest rates slowly and household purchasing power being boosted by fiscal deficits.” “The reason for this difference between the strategy of the US and the eurozone is fear in Europe of a social crisis if household purchasing power declines or if the unemployment rate rises.”

This morning, reports from Asia and the Pacific appeared. Traders also are now looking at macro data from the US - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the usual weekly data on initial unemployment claims, and data on existing home sales. Japanese Trade Balance (Sep) Japan provided data on exports and imports, and thus on its balance sheet, at the start of the day. The current reading is positive and shows an improvement in the trading result. The current reading is higher than the pronosed -2.167.4B and is at the level of -2.094.0B. For more than a year, Japan has been importing more than exporting, and since May the situation has worsened significantly. The balance then decreased from the level of -842.8B to the level of -2,384.7B. In the following months, the result was above the level of 1,000.0B. This situation is unfavorable for the country, so the current positive reading has a significant impact on the Japanese currency (JPY). Source: investing.com This positive trade result was largely influenced by the positive export performance. The published report shows that exports increased from 22% to 28.9%. He was taller than expected. This is the lowest result during the year. Source: investing.com Australia labor maket reports Australia today presented the result on the appearance of the labor market. The number of employees and the unemployment rate are instances of the country's conditions in this sector. Despite a rebound from the negative area in the previous reading, the number of people employed in September fell to 0.9K. The index scores for the year are generally in a downward trend. The decline will begin in the first half of the year, and the lowest level was in April at 4.0K. It then doubled and the annual peak was at 88.4K. The unexpected drop below zero occurred in the month following the highest score. Therefore, the positive reading from the previous period was significant for the economy. The current reading may weaken not only the economy but also the Australian dolar (AUD). Source: investing.com People's Bank of China Loan Prime Rate The positive news for the Australian labor market is that the unemployment rate remains at 3.5%. Another reading showed that this indicator holds up once again. People's Bank of China Loan Prime Rate will remain at 3.65% for the third time. EU Leaders Summit The most important event of the day for europe is Leaders Summit . The Euro Summit brings together the heads of state or government of the euro area countries, the Euro Summit President and the President of the European Commission. This meetings provide strategic guidelines on euro area economic policy. The comments made at this meeting may give a signal about future decisions, which at the moment are very important not only for the economy but also for the market. US Initial Jobless Claims Every weekly report on the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week will appear at 14:30 CET. Another increase is expected. The projected number of applications is at the level of 230K. This means that the indicator will be in an uptrend for the second week in a row. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. The last picture of conditions is negative. It has been at a very low level since May, falling below zero levels. The latest reading was at -9.9, expected to rise to -5.0. This is a small but important improvement in conditions. The general appearance is negative. US Existing Home Sales Another important report for the US market is the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. The outlook for this indicator is pessimistic. The number is expected to drop from 4.80M to 4.70M. Despite the economic situation, the index remained above 5.0M for a significant part of this year. The first drop below this level took place in July (4.81M). In August, it fell slightly to the level of 4.80M. Another decline may signal a deepening of the downward trend. This means that home sales deteriorate significantly. Source: investing.com Summery 1:50 CET Japan Exports (YoY) (Sep) 1:50 CET Japan Trade Balance (Sep) 2:30 CET Australia Employment Change (Sep) 2:30 CET Australia Unemployment Rate (Sep) 3:15 CET PBoC Loan Prime Rate 12:00 CET EU Leaders Summit 14:30 CET US Initial Jobless Claims 14:30 CET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) 16:00 CET US Existing Home Sales (Sep) Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Deputies quarrel, ministers are leaving, Truss' chair is shaking, inflation is rising. The pound has started a black streak again, although the presence of a white one can be questioned. The burden of problems hangs over the British currency and it does not get better, on the contrary, there are new reasons to think about the potential achievement of parity for the GBP/USD pair. The dollar gaining strength, the equally rapidly growing inflation in the UK, which the Bank of England continues to ignore, the specter of a recession. All this is happening during a possible change of power in Britain. The new prime minister has not had time to settle in the chair, as MPs want to send her after Boris Johnson. The government's twists and turns are not at the right time, but apparently there is no other way out. Inflation The pound fell for a moment after the release of inflation data. The new indicator turned out to be disappointing, the price index in the UK continued to accelerate, reflecting, among other things, the passivity of the local central bank. In September, inflation moved to double digits, increasing from 9.9% to 10.1% against the consensus of economists of 10%. More importantly, the core inflation rate rose just as quickly, amounting to 6.5% compared to 6.3% in the previous month. The highest figure in four decades, but succeeding figures are expected to be higher. "The overall inflation rate will rise to almost 11% in October, primarily due to a 27% increase in energy prices. But in the first quarter, the overall figure should decrease to 9%, since the peak of growth in food and motor fuel prices has probably been reached," Pantheon Macroeconomics economists comment. High inflation could be made an argument for strengthening the pound due to the aggressive rhetoric of the BoE, which, in theory, should have followed after another record price increase. Now nothing is keeping the central bank from raising the rate sharply at the November meeting, which was raised to 2.25% in September and is expected to rise to about 4% by the first months of the new year. In practice, things may be different. However, some economists say this may now be less likely after recent scenes in the government. Most of the September budget plan was canceled this week in favor of a return to "austerity." This leaves the economy on the path to a barely mitigated recession, which, according to the August monetary policy report, could last for about a quarter. Everything is too complicated, and the authors of this confusion are British politicians. Downing Street The inflationary picture in the UK has been erased by reports of new layoffs in the ranks of high-ranking political officials. Following the sudden departure of former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, who was forced to resign on October 14, Interior Minister Sewelluella Braverman left her post. The pound tried to grow amid large-scale losses on Wednesday. This movement, apparently, was a reaction to the departure of another high-ranking member of the government, followed by a decline in the yield of UK government bonds, which did not correspond to the internal inflationary picture. Braverman was replaced by Grant Shapps, whom the prime minister had previously pushed to the back of the government. Who's next? What other reshuffles are waiting for Britain and will this save the country from collapse? Anyway, the pound likes what is happening with the change of the main characters. The drop in yields on Wednesday did not correspond to the global background against which US bond yields were pushing other countries higher. Dollar Government reshuffles have a short-term impact on the pound. The reality is that the British currency lags behind not only the strong dollar, but also the weak euro. The pound continued its downward trend, despite extremely high inflation and the rates of the financial markets on the increase in US bond yields after even more hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve representatives. The pound's illogical reaction to the consumer price index data highlights that the currency is "trading in a structural, not cyclical way. In a cyclical world, higher inflation will be accompanied by higher yields and a stronger currency," HSBC noted. When markets are most concerned about structural risks, "higher inflation and higher yields are seen as symptoms of a broader problem," the economists explain. The pound is likely to continue trading structurally until the country's authorities make more efforts to contain the domestic budget deficit or until inflation reaches a peak. In this case, stabilization of the bond market and the pound is possible. In the meantime, the downward trend is the main one. Sterling is waiting for a difficult few months, during which the GBP/USD exchange rate risks falling to 1.0800 and below. The dollar rally, fueled by even more aggressive Fed rhetoric, will put more pressure on the lifeless pound. Traders are revisiting US interest rate hikes closer to 5%. In November, the rate can be raised immediately by 100 bps. The dollar rally in the middle of the week followed statements from Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari. The official signaled that he had "very little confidence in what inflation will be in six months" and argued that the central bank should keep raising rates until there was "convincing evidence" that the inflationary peak had passed. As for rates, September forecasts suggested an upper limit of 4.5% by the end of the year. Concerns were also raised about a rise to 4.75% early next year. Core inflation rose from 6.3% to 6.6% y/y in September, while the official or headline inflation rate remained stubbornly elevated at 8.2%. After the reversal of the dollar index, expectations about reaching new highs again became more active. The current range is 112.00-114.00. These notes will remain relevant until the next FOMC meeting. If bulls manage to break above 114.00, gains will accelerate to a 2022 peak at 114.80.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-21 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324821

As fears of a recession start to settle in, commodity currencies have been on the backfoot despite offering comparably better real rates. Canada has been a particular example of this phenomenon, with its dollar weakening despite a more aggressive rate hiking path than the Fed. The most recent survey of businesses showed further deterioration in optimism, with the majority expecting and preparing for a recession in the coming quarters. Industrial production prices and in particular raw material prices have been declining, a sign that inflation might be on the way down. At least, some time in the future. The most recent CPI unexpected increased, and the annual rate was above expectations. Nevertheless, the consensus among economists is that the BOC will be looking to slow down its rate hikes. There is a generalized problem The shift in expectations from the BOC comes fast on the heels of a similar shift in another commodity Commonwealth country: Australia. The RBA's softening move at the last meeting caught investors by surprise, and they seem determined to not be surprised by the BOC this time. Investors are concerned about rising interest rates causing tightness in money markets, as market makers are unwilling to borrow in order to finance investments in falling stock markets. This is forcing central banks, particularly in commodity currencies, to reevaluate their stance on tightening. Prices are slipping Australia's exports have remained steady all year, but the price of commodities have been coming down. Canada is experiencing a similar situation, with the US buying as much crude as possible to make up for Russia being excluded from the market. But, despite OPEC+ cutting production targets a couple of weeks ago, crude prices have been falling. With less remittances to Canada to pay for exports, the Canadian dollar is less attractive when compared to its neighbor's currency. Add to that the possibility the BOC might be pulling back on the tightening, there is reason to expect that the loonie will be weaker going forward. Making things difficult The problem is that a weaker currency means that imported products become more expensive and increase inflationary pressures. This is particularly relevant for countries like Canada and Australia, because they don't have the economies of scale to domestically produce a significant amount of consumer goods. It's even more relevant for smaller countries, such as New Zealand. Higher inflation coupled with increased borrowing costs would be expected to undermine consumers, which would put the economy more at risk, further weakening the currency. Commodity currency traders, therefore, would do well to be particularly interested in retail sales figures from their respective countries. Canada reports September retail sales tomorrow which are expected to drop to 6.5% growth compared to 8.0% prior. Reminder, Canada's annualized inflation in that period was 6.9%.

The 20-EMA at around 1.3080 has acted as major support for the counter. The dismal market mood is supporting the greenback bulls. The asset may test October high at 1.3978 after overstepping the round-level hurdle of 1.3900. The USD/CAD pair is attempting to re-test the critical hurdle of 1.3811 as the risk-off market mood has strengthened further. S&P500 futures have escalated their losses in Tokyo after two consecutive bearish trading sessions, which indicates that the risk aversion theme will stay for a while. This has also infused fresh blood into the US dollar index (DXY), which has overstepped the round-level resistance of 113.00 in Asia. Also, the 10-year US treasury yields haven’t shown any sign of exhaustion despite a juggernaut rally to near 4.23%. On a daily scale, the asset has remained in the grip of bulls after breaching the upward-sloping trendline placed from May 12 high at 1.3077. The formation of buying tails after a correction to near the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 1.3680 indicates that the corrective move is concluded now and the asset will resume its upside journey. Also, the upside trending 50-EMA at 1.3445 indicates that the upside bias is intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) tested 40.00-60.00 after remaining in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. A conclusion of the corrective move may drive the momentum oscillator again into the bullish range. Going forward, a break above Wednesday’s high at 1.3810 will send the asset toward the round-level cushion of 1.3900, followed by the previous week’s high at 1.3978. On the contrary, a decisive drop by the asset below the round-level support of 1.3700 will drag the asset toward October 6 low at 1.3565. A breakdown of the latter will bring further weakness in the asset towards October 5 low at 1.3504. USD/CAD daily chart                

USD/CAD closed higher after Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said the central bank will raise rates above 4%. Most likely, it will remain at this level, or increase further if needed. Fed member Lisa Cook said the same thing, stressing that rates need to continue to rise to control inflation. The current rate is between 3% and 3.25%. This scenario creates opportunities to buy the pair. Since a three-wave pattern (ABC) developed, where wave "A" represents the buying pressure from yesterday, traders can enter the market by taking long positions to the 61.8% and 50% retracement level. Stop loss could be set at 1.36500, then exit the market on the breakdown of 1.38. This trading idea is based on the "Price Action" and "Stop Hunting" methods. Good luck and have a nice day! Don't forget to control the risks.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324955

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory today, as the US dollar is higher against the major currencies. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3827, up 0.45%. Canada retail sales expected to improve Canada releases retail sales for August later today. The July data was weak, with retail sales at -2.5% and core retail sales at -3.1%. The consensus for August stands at 0.4% for the headline reading and 0.2% for core retail sales. The July release was the first decline for both indicators in seven months, and another decline would raise concerns about the strength of consumer spending, a key driver of economic activity. Inflation remains high and is still the Bank of Canada’s number one priority. Headline inflation ticked lower to 6.9% in September, down from 7.0% in August. Still, the reading was higher than the consensus of 6.8%. Core inflation remains even more stubborn and rose unexpectedly to 6.0%, up from 5.8% and above the forecast of 5.6%. The inflation report takes on added significance as the Bank of Canada meets next week. Policy makers are virtually certain to raise rates, but by how much? The rise in core inflation was not a surprise for the central bank, as most BoC core inflation indicators are around 6% and have not shown any signs of peaking. The takeaway from this week’s inflation data bolsters the case for a 75 basis point hike, with inflation remaining stubbornly high. The Fed has given no signals that it plans to ease up on rate hikes anytime soon, and this hawkish stance was reaffirmed by Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker on Thursday. Harker said that higher interest rates had failed to curb inflation, and the Fed would have to continue raising rates, which he said will be “well above” 4% by the end of the year. Currently, the benchmark is at 3.25%, with the Fed holding its next meeting on November 2nd. . USD/CAD Technical 1.3854 and 1.4005 are the next resistance lines There is support at 1.3731 and 1.3580 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Summary:  Barring a sudden resumption of Russian natural gas flows to Europe in the coming quarter, an economic winter is coming for Europe and the euro, as well as satellite currencies sterling and the Swedish krona. Despite the ECB and other central banks - with the extremely notable exception of the Bank of Japan - playing some catchup with the Fed in delivering policy tightening in Q3, the Fed remains the central bank that "rules them all". We will need to see the Fed easing again before we can be sure that the US dollar is finally set to roll over. USD: after the Fed tried to get cute on a policy deceleration, it found religion again.  The US dollar found a temporary peak in the wake of the June 16 FOMC press conference as the market figured that the first 0.75 percent hike since 1994 would prove a peak in Fed hawkishness for the cycle. For its part, the equity market bear market low of the cycle at the time of writing was posted on the day after that FOMC meeting. Risk sentiment found further fuel and the USD dipped slightly heading into the late July FOMC meeting as Powell offered insufficient pushback against the market, which was beginning to price that the Fed policy rate would peak by as early as December 2022 and begin rolling over in the first half of 2023. However, beginning in early August Fed members quickly moved to push back explicitly against the notion of forecasting any Fed easing with consistently hawkish rhetoric almost across the board. The USD rallied anew, even as a number of other central banks moved even more aggressively with their own rate tightening moves and guidance. The ECB even hiked 75 basis points at its September 8 meeting, the largest hike in the central bank’s history, with another 75 basis points priced for the October meeting. After the remarkable thaw in financial conditions since the June FOMC meeting, despite that meeting delivering the first “super-size” rate hike of 75 basis points, the Fed clearly decided that it had more to gain by maintaining a hawkish tone than in trying to guide for the possibility of any imminent policy pivot due to some abstract notion like the neutral rate. The Fed probably can see now that that it is easier to back down from accidents created by excessively tight policy than to risk aggravating inflation risks with easing financial conditions in the middle of a tightening cycle by trying to play cute with guidance. One factor that has added to the potential for a bounce-back in the US economy fairly deep into Q4 is the steep decline in petrol prices after their remarkable peak at record prices north of $5/gallon in early June. The decline to well below $4.00 already in August could have a significant real and psychological impact on the legendary US consumer and keep the economy and wage pressures humming a bit longer than expected for this cycle, requiring that the Fed maintain course and continue its attempt to achieve the full pace of quantitative tightening, promised to reach $95 billion in balance sheet reductions per month in September. Hence our Steen Jakobsen’s anticipation of “peak tightness” in the coming quarter. Tail risk alert for USD in Q4: the mid-term elections. The mid-terms are an important tail-risk event in Q4 for the longer-term outlook for likely US policy responses in the next recession or soft patch. The pundits and oddsmakers assure us that, while the Democrats are very likely to solidify their majority in the Senate, they are nearly certain to lose control of the House. That may well be, but the last two election cycles have taught us to treat election polls with more than a grain of salt, and two developments have dramatically raised the potential for surprises in our view: the Trump-packed US Supreme Court overturning of the Roe v. Wade case from the 1970s that guaranteed access to abortion services at a federal level, and a couple of special elections in Trump country in recent months falling to Democrats—particularly the election for Alaska’s US House representative in which the pro-Trump Sarah Palin lost to a Democrat. This was a state that voted for Trump in 2020 by a margin of 10 points and for the Republican House member by nine points over an independent challenger in the same election. With a deeply divided partisan political environment, the US is only able to make policy at the margin on the fiscal side when one party does not control both houses of Congress and the Presidency. There are important exceptions, including bipartisan issues like reducing supply chain vulnerabilities with China and limiting Chinese access to military and advanced technology. In any case, if the Democrats surprise and maintain control of the House, together with a stronger control of the Senate, it could completely flip the script on fiscal policy potential ahead of the 2024 US presidential election, generally increasing the risks of far higher inflationary outcomes. Had Biden enjoyed a mere seat or two more in the Senate over the last two years, his party might have passed a package some $2 trillion larger than what actually made it through in the so-called Inflation Reduction Act. Graphic: The jaws are widening perilously! The story since mid-2021 has been of a widening performance divergence between the soaring US dollar and weakening euro and even weaker JPY. Note that the indices are CPI-adjusted, and Japan’s retail CPI measures have likely been suppressed, meaning that the picture would look even worse than it does here. Something could give in Q4 on the Bank of Japan’s commitment to containing yields. Note that the euro weakness looks pedestrian in comparison, even after trading below parity at times in Q3. EUR, GBP and a winter of discontent. The euro fell to below parity against the US dollar on the intense and excessive pressure on inflation in the EU from soaring energy and power prices, which also presented risks to output volumes and had a seismic impact on external balances. Europe went from being the world’s largest surplus bloc on trade to a deficit bloc in a world heading into a slowdown and likely recession in Q4 and early next year.  Much has been made of the EU’s heroic efforts to build natural gas storage ahead of the heating season beginning in the autumn, but this will not cover the additional supply needed unless Russian gas flows resume over the winter—unless EU demand drops further. If Russian leader Putin, or anyone of his ilk, remains in power in Russia, the longer-term energy supply picture for Europe will remain difficult as the EU will have to continue bidding up for shipments of LNG in a tight global market. New sources of gas could be in the wings, possibly in the long run from Algeria and already in coming months from the newly-arrived-on-the-scene LNG from Mozambique. But the EU energy outlook will likely never again prove as bad as it does for the coming winter of discontent, so some major low in the euro may emerge in the coming quarter or early next year. The EU plans to cap prices may help nominal EU inflation readings to begin rolling over in coming months, but this won’t kill demand. Physical limits to natural gas supply, possibly aggravated by risks that French nuclear power is not fully back on line until late in the winter, might force power rationing and real GDP output drops. Europe will be hoping that a mild winter lies ahead, and daily and weekly weather forecasts will receive more attention than perhaps at any time in the continent’s history. Ditto for the UK with the cherry on top that the UK lacks strategic gas storage facilities even if it is scrambling on that front. Again: winter is coming and will continue to come every year, but the EU will move with existential haste to address its vulnerabilities.  The UK bears extra close watching as a country capable of a more nimble and forceful policy response than any other major country, given the combination of tremendous pressures on the UK economy from its external deficits and cost of living crisis on the one hand, and a new Prime Minister Liz Truss and her nothing-to-lose mentality on the other. Her instinct will be to move fast and move big to keep the lights on and to keep her country warm this winter for starters, but also to ensure that policy moves the UK away from its current predicament and vulnerabilities. The UK simply must find a new path toward balancing its external deficits and decreasing energy vulnerabilities if she is to enjoy more than a brief stint as PM. Her approach of populist price controls on the one hand together with tax cuts on the other are a risky gambit for sterling on the implications for the national deficit. Sterling may see an aggravated further drop this winter as long as energy prices remain divergently high for Europe (natural gas is the critical factor in particular). Further out, policy will have to show traction in attracting investment, bringing rising UK domestic energy output (UK shale gas potential unleashed?) and improving productivity to see sterling rising from the ashes. And for perspective, sterling isn’t even fully in the ashes yet anyway, as we note that in CPI-adjusted real-effective-exchange-rate terms, it is actually only mid-range since the 2016 Brexit referendum collapse. Continued tension among the Asian giants CNH and JPY: Q4 to deliver a big bang? We have highlighted the still very stretched CNYJPY exchange rate in both of the last two outlooks. The CNH has loosely tracked the USD higher, while the JPY has remained the weakling of G10 currencies on the Bank of Japan’s stick-in-the-mud refusal to shift to a tightening stance and away from its yield-curve-control policy. In Q3, the CNYJPY exchange rate reached new multi-decade highs well north of 20.00. Could Q4 finally be when something “breaks” here? On the CNY side of the equation (and closely linked, the tradeable offshore CNH), China might decide that it is simply no longer in its interest to maintain a strong currency, especially if commodity prices begin to fret at the economic outlook souring. But more likely, the capitulation could come from the Bank of Japan via a stronger JPY as discussed in our Q3 outlook. Significant further downside pressure on the yen may simply force the Bank of Japan to surrender after it held out so long in the hope of seeing wage gains rising sufficiently to suggest a sustainably positive inflation outlook. But there may also be a chicken-and-egg problem in the Bank of Japan’s measures of inflation and inflationary risks from here: the policy by Japan’s supermarket chains to keep food prices capped even as wholesale and import prices have soared, the latter aggravated by the tanking JPY. October 1st is meant to see a reset of retail prices for retail shoppers overnight, which could lead to soaring official inflation readings and a growing sense of popular outrage as the cost-of-living rises. Fiscal attempts to shield lower income households will do nothing for the JPY or alleviate the concern for medium-wage and higher income earners. Will Q4 finally be the quarter that sees the Kuroda BoJ surrender and shift its guidance, and at least shift the goal posts on yield-curve control? There is tremendous two-way volatility potential for JPY crosses, particularly if the USDJPY rips to new aggressive multi-decade highs before the BoJ finally then capitulates. The rest of G-10 FX. In this case, the “rest of G-10” would be the Swiss franc (CHF) and the “G-10 smalls” that include the AUD, CAD, NZD, SEK and NOK. Regarding CHF, with cost-of-living pressures at a maximum over the coming winter, the Swiss National Bank will be happy to continue its tightening policy and encouraging a stronger franc, which has helped materially in dampening inflation pressures for Switzerland. For the G-10 smalls, the “peak tightness” we anticipate in Q4 will likely not be kind to these less liquid currencies. For the Antipodeans AUD and NZD, we’re curious whether AUDNZD can break above the multi-year range capped by 1.1300 that stretches back over seven years, as we consider Australia’s formidable commodities portfolio and its newfound status as a current account surplus country while New Zealand is reliant on energy imports. New Zealand was also quick to tighten rates and is therefore likely at the leading edge of countries set to roll over into a slow-down and an eventual pause of its rate-tightening regime. In Europe, Norway will have to play ball to some degree with Europe’s move to cap energy prices after the country has reaped enormous windfall profits from soaring natural gas prices in particular. The Swedish krona looks cheap, but may need to see a major market bottom before its prospects can brighten sustainably, given its history as one of the more sensitive currencies to the economic outlook and risk sentiment.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/quarterly-outlook/a-fed-thaw-needed-to-deliver-a-sustained-usd-turn-lower-04102022

President Joe Biden is not on the ballot at the 8 November mid-term elections, but the outcome will determine how much he can achieve in the second half of his presidential term and how the government can respond to growing recession risks. It will also be an important barometer for the Republican Party and whether Donald Trump will run against Biden in 2024   In this article What Is happening? What are the key issues? The state of play What history tells us The scenarios and what might happen in the next two years The market impact The market impact The market impact   What Is happening? All 435 members in the House of Representatives are up for election (currently 220 Democrat, 212 Republican, three vacant). This is a two-year term. The Senate is comprised of 100 members. Each Senator has a six-year term with approximately a third up for election every two years; 34 Class 3 Senate seats + one seat due to vacancy is up for election on 8 November. Of these 35 Senate seats 21 are currently held by Republicans and 14 are Democrat. The Senate membership is currently 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and two independents who vote with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris (Democrat) gets the deciding vote in a tied ballot. Republicans need to win one seat (net) from the Democrats to control the Senate. Should the Democrats lose control of either the House or the Senate (or both) then President Biden’s ability to pass legislation will be severely curtailed. He would likely be limited to using executive powers – a heavily restricted form of lawmaking without tax-changing powers. It will therefore be important in defining what support can be offered to the economy in a likely recession – will the onus be on fiscal policy or monetary policy? The presidency is not up for election until 2024, but the outcome of the mid-terms could determine whether President Biden stands again and whether former President Trump will seek the Republican nomination to run. The mid-term elections will also have implications for Biden’s climate agenda. Partial or full Republican control of Congress will add difficulties to the execution of clean energy tax incentives and funding under the Inflation Reduction Act, as well as other climate measures the administration intends to establish before the next presidential election. In all the scenarios of the election outcome, we can expect more measures coming from federal government agencies to regulate emissions. 36 states and three territories also hold gubernatorial elections – a vote to elect a governor to a four-year term, except for New Hampshire and Vermont where the governor serves a two-year term. Of the 36 states up for election, 20 currently have a Republican governor and 16 have a Democrat. Guam (Dem), US Virgin Islands (Dem) and the Northern Mariana Islands (Rep) are the territories holding elections. Numerous state elections for Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasurer and state legislative elections are also occurring. This could have major implications in a contested election in 2024. There are also various local referendums, including abortion legislation referendums in six states.   What are the key issues? President Biden’s approval rating, while low by historical standards, has increased following recent legislative “wins” surrounding green policies, infrastructure and technology. The Democrat Party’s stance following the Supreme Court’s vote to eliminate the constitutional right to obtain an abortion has also helped lift approval ratings.  Nonetheless, the most important issue according to pollsters is the state of the economy with the rising cost of living, higher interest rates and falling asset prices all causing concern for the electorate. Percentage of Americans mentioning economic issues as the nation's most important problem   Source: Gallup   The perception of poor performance in government is the second most cited negative factor. In the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court’s vote on abortion, this issue did become the top issue for 8% of respondents, having been at 1% the previous month. It has since slipped back to 4%. Other issues respondents cite as the top concern for the election Source: Gallup The state of play Mid-term elections are typically seen as a referendum on the effectiveness of a president and their party during the first two years of their term. The omens are not good so far, with President Biden’s approval at this stage in his presidency very low by historical standards, matching Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan and just ahead of Donald Trump. All three took heavy losses in their first mid-term election. High levels of partisanship, the high (and rising) cost of living, a weakening economy and falling asset prices are all hurting President Biden and the Democrats. Presidential approval ratings six weeks before mid-term elections Source: Gallup   The election of House members tends to reflect generic Republican-Democrat polling. FiveThirtyEight collates opinion polls which suggest that Democrats and Republicans are tied on 45% each, with 10% of the population undecided. Turnout is therefore key for the Democrats if they are to retain a winning margin in the House. People who want political change tend to vote in greater numbers than those who are content with the status quo. Mid-term election turnout tends to be far lower than for presidential election years. Typically, presidential election years see a turnout of 50-60% with 2020 seeing 67% turnout. Mid-term elections typically see a turnout of around 40% although 2018 saw a 53% turnout. Hence, the consensus amongst political forecasters is that the Republicans will win a narrow victory thanks to their more motivated base. The Senate and Gubernatorial elections are different to the House elections in that senators and governors tend to be better known and individual personalities play a greater role in the decision-making process for the electorate. One way of looking at it is that California only has one governor and two senators, but 52 house seats. Consequently, the Senate races are less driven by national issues that impact generic Democrat-Republican voting patterns in the House. Most polls show the majority of Senate seats up for election are solid Democrat or solid Republican. There are perhaps only four Senate seats out of the 35 up for contention where there is genuine uncertainty on the outcome. The Cook Political Report lists one Democrat seat in Georgia and one in Nevada as a “toss-up” while one Republican Senate seat in Pennsylvania and one in Wisconsin are listed similarly. Hence the Senate is a closer call than the House. What history tells us Only three out of the last 22 mid-term elections (going back to Franklin D Roosevelt’s presidency in 1934) have seen the incumbent president’s party make gains in the House of Representatives (nine seats for Roosevelt in 1934, five seats for Clinton in 1998 and eight seats for George W Bush in 2002). The six-seat gain that the Republicans need to win control of the House has been achieved on 17 occasions since 1934 and in each of the last four mid-terms. The median loss of House seats for an incumbent’s party since 1934 has been 28. In the Senate, the incumbent president’s party has gained seats on six occasions and lost seats 15 times with one no-change outcome since 1934. The median change in the past 21 occasions has been a loss of five seats. The Republicans need to pick up just one seat to control the Senate. House and Senate gains/losses for incumbent presidents at mid-term elections Source: Wikipedia, ING   While the backdrop supports the view that the Republicans have a chance to win control of the Senate, individual Republican candidates have run into difficulties. For example, Herschel Walker in Georgia has lost ground following an abortion scandal, while there are independent voter concerns regarding inexperience and extremism in other candidates. Most political forecasts have the Democrats maintaining control of the Senate, but it is a close call. Betting markets narrowly show a majority expecting the Republicans to win control of both the House and the Senate. Implied probabilities of outcomes based on PredictIt betting odds – spreads mean numbers do not sum to 1 Source: Macrobond The scenarios and what might happen in the next two years Republicans win the House and Democrats retain the Senate: Biden constrained. 50% probability President Biden struggled to pass legislation when he had a Democrat majority in both the House and the Senate. Without a majority in Congress, it is nigh on impossible. Intense partisanship with just two years to go until the next presidential elections means major legislation is unlikely to pass unless there is a national emergency. President Biden’s legislative actions are therefore likely limited to the use of executive orders and actions to circumvent Congress, where allowed. This is a much more limited form of government. Executive orders can only be implemented in areas where the president has constitutional powers, such as trade negotiations. The president cannot use an executive order to change taxes because that power is held by Congress. Executive orders can be an effective way of implementing policy since legislation is often written in broad, general language. Legislation is often set out to achieve certain targets or aims without explicitly saying how this should be done. An executive order can allow the president to specify in more detail the route to achieve those aims. These orders only apply to Federal agencies. Consequently, Biden’s focus may shift towards international relations and trade policy where the president is less constrained by Congress. Given that the fear of recession is rising, the president is going to have less scope to offer fiscal support given the requirement of having Republican legislators on board. This suggests that once inflation is under control the onus is going to be on the Federal Reserve to offer stimulus to the economy. This is our base case for aggressive interest rate cuts from the second half of 2023 onwards. A Senate controlled by the Democrats would still be able to approve the president’s choices for key positions, such as judges. With control of the House, Republicans gain congressional investigative powers, with some on the right already proposing looking into the president’s son, Hunter Biden’s, business dealings. They can also stall or disband other inquiries, including the committee investigation into the 6 January insurrection. Trump’s enlarged power base in the House could also lead to investigations into the FBI search at Mar-a-Lago. From a sustainability perspective, the landmark Inflation Reduction Act is unlikely to be repealed if the Republicans control either the House or the Senate because President Biden has the authority to veto the repeal, or any other passed legislation intended to replace the original law. However, under a divided Congress, it could be tough to execute the planned clean energy spending under the Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans could make it harder for the tax credits and funding to be distributed through stricter procedure inspection. Under this scenario, Biden will also likely embark on more climate initiatives from the executive branch, such as issuing executive orders or directing agencies to roll out more aggressive carbon regulations, although the latter faces challenges from the Supreme Court. A split Congress and President Biden left to focus on international issues such as trade could end up proving mildly positive for the dollar and bad for EMFX. The Biden Administration’s stance on Chinese trade has not been as accommodative as many had expected back in 2020 and the recent tightening of restrictions in the semiconductor sector could lay the groundwork for a more hawkish trade path into 2024.  The market impact FX: A split Congress and President Biden left to focus on international issues such as trade could end up proving mildly positive for the dollar. The Biden Administration’s stance on Chinese trade has not been as accommodative as many had expected back in 2020 and the recent tightening of restrictions in the semiconductor sector could lay the groundwork for a more hawkish trade path into 2024. Rates: Equity markets tend to prefer political malaise, as there tends to be less political meddling to fret about. Any material outperformance in the equity space can act to amplify the upside move in market rates in the month or so after the mid-term outcomes, while at the same time dampening the downside to market rates in the longer term, say looking through to the end of 2023. Market rates will still fall in 2023 (once the peak for the Funds rate is in), but not by as much if the Democrats were to hold both houses.   2. Republicans win the House and Senate: A springboard for Trump in 2024? 40% probability A bad performance for the Democrats will prompt questions as to whether Joe Biden is the best person to lead the Party into the next election. Senior Democrats could start jockeying for position with potential party infighting, further undermining the president’s ability to deliver policy. However, the lack of a credible alternative still favours Biden standing again and defeating any Democrat challenger. The president’s ability to pass any legislation is curtailed and limited to executive orders as outlined above. A Republican Senate would be able to block Biden’s picks for key positions in the judiciary and elsewhere. The fact that candidates backed by Donald Trump, and importantly that backed him, have won seats in both the House and Senate strengthens his position as the likely Republican nominee to challenge President Biden in 2024. The Republicans, buoyed by a convincing victory, are likely to open investigations into Hunter Biden and there could even be impeachment charges. Republicans making sweeping gains in the House and the Senate would likely be mirrored by major gains for Republicans in state positions that have influence over election processes and the certification of results. This could make the 2024 election even more contentious. As in the previous scenario, there will be little prospect of any meaningful fiscal support to counter the recession, putting the onus on the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy aggressively in the second half of 2023 onwards. On sustainability, like the scenario of a split Congress, while the Inflation Reduction Act is here to stay, the implementation process would be a lot harder. Moreover, a fully Republican-controlled Congress would encourage the party to propose energy legislation that could advance their policy platform. For instance, there will likely be proposals to increase oil and gas activities to cement US energy dominance and seize profits from exports. There might also be attempts to streamline the federal energy project permitting process, which can substantially shorten the permitting time for not only renewable projects but also oil and gas projects. Some clean energy areas that will likely see Republican support include carbon capture and storage (CCS, as it can be applied to hard-to-abate sectors such as oil and gas), clean manufacturing, and key domestic energy supply chain strengthening. Congress would also likely support blue hydrogen produced from natural gas using CCS technologies over the short to medium term, as opposed to a more radical transition toward green hydrogen produced from renewables. Biden will likely be more aggressive (than scenario 1) in using his executive power to counter resistance from Congress on the climate issue. Republican control of both branches of Congress could initially weigh on the dollar via a hamstrung Administration unable to deliver fiscal support in a downturn. Closer to 2024, however, the dollar could be making a comeback were Republicans holding gains on the polls – given the experience with Donald Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. The market impact FX: Republican control of both branches of Congress could initially weigh on the dollar via a hamstrung administration unable to deliver fiscal support in a downturn. Closer to 2024, however, the dollar could be making a comeback were Republicans to hold gains in the polls – given the experience with Donald Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Rates: For markets, this extreme version of political separation between the executive and congressional powers is one that will likely see politics lurch to petty squabbling, removing the risk for big macro-impactful outcomes. As a pre-emptive swing in the direction of a potential Trump administration, a pro-growth tint should result in higher bond yields than would otherwise be the case. Expect an amplification of the risk in yields to the upside, and then a more dramatic fall in market rates to the downside as we progress through 2023.   3. Democrats retain House and Senate: Biden gets a second chance. 10% probability This would be a major surprise given the current state of polling, but it would reinvigorate the Democratic party and Biden’s presidency. Legislation in support of abortion, same-sex marriage and voting rights would be high on the agenda. With recessionary fears intensifying, this outcome would be the one most likely to generate a fiscal response, presumably on spending support for impacted households, e.g. the reintroduction of a federal unemployment benefit. Looser fiscal policy may mean there is less pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, especially if inflation proves to be stickier than we project. The Republican party’s failure to pick up enough seats would likely weaken the chances of Donald Trump being selected as the Republican candidate to challenge President Biden in 2024. The party may look to put momentum behind alternatives such as Ron DeSantis, former vice-president Mike Pence and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Climate and clean energy legislation could be expanded, building on the Inflation Reduction Act (if they gain a Senate seat and remove the need to get backing from Kyrsten Sinema or Joe Manchin). For instance, Congress might propose bills to change excessive emissions from the power sector—a provision that was originally part of the Democrats’ legislative efforts but was removed by Manchin. Congress could even go a step further to pass a new law and give authorisation to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to put caps on power plant emissions. The EPA’s authority to do so was previously rescinded by a recent Supreme Court decision. Finally, the Biden administration could be expected to set up more regulation measures to curb emissions. These include tougher rules to reduce methane emissions, as well as new vehicle emissions and efficiency standards. Surprise retention by the Democrats of both the House and the Senate could be seen as a dollar positive for 2023. The administration would have more power to meet a recession with a fiscal response. This would potentially make more difficult the Fed’s objective of bringing inflation back to 2%. The market impact FX: A surprise retention by the Democrats of both the House and the Senate could be seen as a dollar positive for 2023. The administration would have more power to meet a recession with a fiscal response. This would potentially make more difficult the Fed’s objective of bringing inflation back to 2%. Rates: Markets would perceive this as being the lower growth and heightened political meddling outcome, which would tend to present a downside risk for equity markets relative to the baseline. For bonds, one question is how inflation might be impacted, with risks that the elevation of climate-focused measures could result in higher inflation, at least in the short term. This could dominate the perception of a lower growth outlook, resulting in higher bond yields than otherwise would be the case (although they would still fall in 2023 once the cycle has turned). That said, there is also a route for bigger spending from a Democratic controlled administration, bolstering growth, and supply of bonds. That could in turn ultimately skew the risk towards higher market rates on a more medium term outlook. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

What doesn't kill makes us stronger. No matter what the Federal Reserve's rival central banks try to rein in the US dollar, it still blooms. It would seem that high inflation-induced rate hikes in other countries outside the US should have cooled the ardor of the bulls on the USD index. It wasn't there! One piece of information about the acceleration of consumer prices in New Zealand, Britain and Canada was enough for the greenback to launch a new attack. The same can be said about foreign exchange interventions. In conditions of low external demand and the highest inflation in decades, the interest in reverse currency wars, thereby strengthening rather than weakening the national currency, is understandable. As well as the dissatisfaction of governments with the fall of its exchange rate. Alas, intervention in the life of Forex does not help. Large-scale long positions on the yen managed to stop the USDJPY pair at 146 for just a few days, after which it rose to 151. At the same time, the experience of foreign exchange interventions with USDJPY in 1998 and 2011, with EURUSD in 2000, with GBPUSD in 1992 was also negative. A coordinated intervention is required, like the Plaza Accord in 1985. Dollar pairs react to coordinated intervention The problem is that the conditions then and now are significantly different. In those years, the Fed defeated high inflation and could afford the weakening of the US dollar. Today, the central bank still has a lot to do before consumer prices begin to move confidently towards the target. In addition, Finance Minister Janet Yellen notes that market-determined exchange rates are the best regime for the US dollar. Its strengthening is the result of differences in economic policies and the shocks that countries face. Without US support, currency interventions are doomed to failure. You don't need to go far for an example. Japan threw money to the wind, trying to support the yen diving into the abyss. Its interference in the life of Forex only made the situation worse. Gold and foreign exchange reserves were used to sell USDJPY. It was necessary to get rid of US Treasury bonds, which led to an increase in their yields and further strengthened the dollar. Dynamics of US Treasury Bond yields Rates on 10-year securities have reached the highest level since 2007. The situation resembles the events of those years, and investors are beginning to argue that only an increase in profitability to 5-5.25% will allow the indicator to reach a plateau. Until this happens, the US dollar will continue to sweep away everything in its path. No matter how hard its opponents try, raising rates or using currency interventions. Only the European Central Bank is able to suspend the fall of EURUSD. Its meeting is rightly regarded as a key event of the economic calendar in the last full week of October. Technically, the EURUSD peak continues on the daily chart. We hold the short positions formed from the 0.9845 and 0.9815 levels and increase them on the breakout of support at 0.97. The initial target is the 0.95 mark.     Relevance up to 15:00 2022-10-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324997

Macro data published last week showed that inflation in the world, including in its most economically developed regions, continues to grow. Thus, according to the data presented, annual consumer inflation in the UK has reached a new multi-year high of 10.1%, in the eurozone - 9.9%, in Canada - 6.9%. The CPI consumer price index for the United States, published a week earlier, also indicated a high inflation rate of 8.2% (in annual terms). Meanwhile, high geopolitical tensions remain in the world, the western political world is being shaken by intra-party conflicts, while elections of a new prime minister are expected in the UK next week. Among the features of trading in the foreign exchange market, I would like to note that the USD/JPY pair took the level of 150.00, which, as market participants believed, the Bank of Japan would protect. However, so far this is not happening – USD/JPY is moving higher to the upside, and the yen continues to weaken rapidly. Next week, meetings of the three largest world central banks will take place at once - Canada, the eurozone, Japan, and entire blocks of the most important European macro statistics, as well as on China and the USA, will be published. Market participants will also pay attention to the release of important macro statistics for Australia, Germany, and the UK. Thus, the next week promises to be extremely volatile, with a lot of trading opportunities. As for the dollar, its DXY index maintains positive dynamics and continues to remain in the zone of 20-year highs, not far from the local high of 114.74 reached last month. Surpassing this resistance level will open the way for DXY towards 120.121.00, the 2001 highs. Monday 24 October Germany. Index (PMI) of Business Activity in the Manufacturing Sector (preliminary release) This S&P Global report is an analysis of a survey of 800 purchasing managers, during which respondents are asked to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Since purchasing managers have, perhaps, the most up-to-date information about the situation in the company, this is an important indicator of the state of the German economy as a whole. This sector of the economy forms a significant part of Germany's GDP. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 as negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6, 56.9, 58.4, 59.8, 57.4, 57.4, 57.8, 58.4, 62.6. Forecast for October: 48.0. The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high. Eurozone. Composite Index (PMI) of Business Activity in the Manufacturing Sector (preliminary release) The PMI Business Activity index in the eurozone manufacturing sector (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the entire European economy. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 as negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 48.1, 48.9, 49.8, 52.1, 54.6, 56.5, 58.2. Forecast for October: 48.1. The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high. Great Britain. Index (PMI) of Business Activity in the Manufacturing Sector and in the Service Sector (preliminary release) The PMI business Activity index in the UK manufacturing sector (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the British economy. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast and the previous value, then the pound is likely to decline sharply in the short term. The data is better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, a result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens GBP, below 50 as negative for GBP. Previous values: 48.4, 47.3, 52.1, 52.8, 54.6, 55.8, 55.2, 58.0, 57.3. The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high. The PMI Business Activity Index in the UK services sector (S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the British economy. The service sector employs most of the working-age population of the UK, and it accounts for about 75% of GDP. The most important part of the service sector is still financial services. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast and the previous value, then the pound is likely to decline sharply in the short term. The data is better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, a result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens GBP, below 50 as negative for GBP. Previous values: 50.0, 50.9, 52.6, 54.3, 53.4, 58.9, 62.6, 60.5, 54.1 ( in January 2022). Forecast for October: 49.6. The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high. USA. Business Activity Indices (PMI): Composite, in the Manufacturing Sector and in the Service Sector of the Economy (from S&P Global) for October The monthly S&P Global report will release (among other data) a composite PMI index and PMI indices in the manufacturing sector and in the services sector of the US economy, which are an important indicator of the state of these sectors and the US economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, below 50 is considered negative for the US dollar. The data above the value of 50 indicate an acceleration of activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. If the indicator falls below the forecast and, especially, below the value of 50, the dollar may sharply weaken in the short term. Previous values of the PMI indicator: composite 49.5, 44.6, 47.7, 52.3, 53.6, 56.0; in the manufacturing sector 52.0, 51.5, 52.2, 57.0, 59.2; in the service sector 49.3, 43.7, 47.3, 52.7, 53.4, 55.6. The level of market impact is high, although lower than the similar report from the ISM (American Institute of Supply Management) Tuesday 25 October USA. Consumer Confidence Index Report by the Conference Board with the results of a survey of about 3,000 American households, during which respondents are asked to assess the level of current, future economic conditions and the overall economic situation in the United States. The confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country and in the stability of their economic situation is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large part of overall economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence indicates growth in the economy, while a low level indicates stagnation. The previous value of the indicator is 108.0. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the USD, and a decrease in the value will weaken the dollar. The level of influence on the markets is medium to high. Wednesday 26 October Australia. Consumer Price Index (for the 3rd quarter). Reserve Bank of Australia Core Inflation Index using the truncated average method (for the 3rd quarter) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) determines the change in prices in a certain basket of goods and services for a given period, being a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. The assessment of the inflation rate is important for the management of the central bank when determining the parameters of the current monetary policy. The indicator below the forecast/previous value may provoke a weakening of the AUD, since low inflation will force the RBA leaders to adhere to a soft monetary policy course. Conversely, the growth of inflation and its high level will put pressure on the RBA to tighten its monetary policy, which in normal economic conditions is assessed as a positive factor for the national currency. Previous values of the indicator: +1.8% (+6.1% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter of 2022, +2.1% (+5.1% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2022, +1.3% (+3.5% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter, +0.8% (+3.0% YoY) in the 3rd quarter, +0.8% (+3.8% YoY) in the 2nd quarter, +0.6% (+1.1% YoY) in the 1st quarter of 2021. Forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2022: +1.5% (+6.9% in annual terms). The level of influence on the markets is high. The RBA Core Inflation Index, measured by the truncated average method (for the 3rd quarter) Published by the RBA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It reflects the dynamics of retail prices of goods and services included in the consumer basket. The simple truncated average method takes into account the weighted average core, the central 70% of the index components. Previous index values: +1.5% (+4.9% YoY) in the 2nd quarter of 2022, +1.4% (+3.7% YoY) in the 1st quarter of 2022, +1.0% (+2.6% YoY) in the 4th quarter, +0.7% (+2.1% YoY) in the 3rd quarter, +0.5% (+1.6% YoY) in the 2nd quarter, +0.3% (+1.1% YoY) in the 1st quarter of 2021. Forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2022: +2.0% (+5.5% in annual terms). The level of influence on the markets is high. China. GDP (quarterly). Retail Sales China's National Bureau of Statistics is to release its quarterly GDP report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity and a major indicator of the health of the economy. High GDP figures will have a positive impact on the Chinese yuan quotes, and, conversely, a weak GDP report will have a negative impact on the CNY. The dynamics of China's GDP is reflected not only in the dynamics of the Chinese yuan, but also in the dynamics of the world, primarily Asian stock indices, as well as on quotes of commodity currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollars. China is the largest trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand and the buyer of raw materials from these countries. Therefore, positive macro statistics from China may also have a positive impact on the quotes of these commodity currencies, although recent data from China indicate a slowdown in the world's largest economy, and this is a negative factor for stock markets and commodity currency quotes. Previous Chinese GDP: -2.6% (+0.4% YoY) in Q2, +1.3% (+4.8% YoY) in Q1 2022, + 1.6% (+4.0% YoY) in Q4, +0.2% (+4.9% YoY) in Q3, +1.3% (+7, 9% YoY) in Q2, +0.6% (+18.3% YoY) in Q1 2021. The level of influence on the markets is medium to high. The Retail Sales Level Index is released monthly by China's National Bureau of Statistics and evaluates the total volume of retail sales and cash generated. It is the main indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. It is also considered an indicator of consumer confidence and reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term. The growth of the index is usually a positive factor for the CNY; a decrease in the indicator will negatively affect the CNY. Previous index values (in annual terms) +5.4%, -6.7%, -11.1, -3.5, +6.7 (in February 2022) after +8% growth in the last months of 2019 year and falling by -20.5% in February 2020). The data speaks of the uneven recovery of this sector of the Chinese economy after a strong fall in February-March 2020. If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast and/or previous values, then the CNY may weaken sharply. The level of influence on the markets is medium to high. Canada. Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Bank of Canada accompanying statement The level of interest rates is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Most other economic indicators are only looked at by investors to predict how rates will move in the future. Inflation in the country accelerated to almost a 40-year high (in February 2022, consumer prices in Canada rose at an annualized rate of 5.7% after rising by 5.1% in January, reaching a 30-year high, and in May - already to 7.7%). This is the highest figure since March 1983! The Bank of Canada estimates that the neutral level of the interest rate, at which it does not stimulate or slow down economic activity, is 2.5%. The current level of the interest rate is 3.25%. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise interest rates again at this meeting (by 0.50% or even 0.75%). In an accompanying statement, Bank of Canada officials will explain the decision and possibly share plans for the monetary policy outlook. The tough tone of this statement will cause the Canadian dollar to strengthen. The propensity of the bank's leaders to carry out a soft policy may provoke a weakening of the Canadian dollar. The level of influence on the markets is high. Canada. Bank of Canada Press Conference The press conference consists of two parts - first the prepared statement is read out, then the conference is open for press questions. This is one of the main methods that the Bank of Canada uses to communicate with market participants on monetary policy issues, also giving hints about future monetary policy. It examines in detail the factors that influenced the decision of the bank's management on the interest rate. During the press conference, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will explain the bank's position and assess the current economic situation in the country. If the tone of his speech is tough on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, then the Canadian dollar will strengthen in the foreign exchange market. If Macklem speaks in favor of a soft monetary policy, the Canadian currency will decline. In any case, high volatility in CAD quotes is expected during his speech. The level of influence on the markets is high.

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 2.47% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 rose 2.37% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.31%. Dow Jones index  Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 10.88 points or 6.07% to close at 190.22. JPMorgan Chase & Co rose 6.10 points or 5.25% to close at 122.23. Goldman Sachs Group Inc rose 14.29 points or 4.60% to close at 325.10. The losers were shares of Verizon Communications Inc, which shed 1.65 points or 4.46% to end the session at 35.35. American Express Company rose 1.67% or 2.38 points to close at 140.04, while Procter & Gamble Company rose 1.25% or 1.59 points to close at 128.58. S&P 500 Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Schlumberger NV, which rose 10.33% to 50.41, Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc, which gained 9.99% to close at 32. 03, as well as Huntington Bancshares Incorporated, which rose 9.47% to end the session at 14.45. The drop leaders were SVB Financial Group shares, which lost 23.95% to close at 230.03. Shares of Robert Half International Inc lost 8.55% and ended the session at 73.01. Quotes of HCA Holdings Inc decreased in price by 5.69% to 196.74. NASDAQ  Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Huadi International Group Co Ltd, which rose 89.27% to hit 58.92, Altamira Therapeutics Ltd, which gained 58.64% to close at 0.52 , as well as shares of Missfresh Ltd ADR, which rose by 57.50%, ending the session at around 2.52. The drop leaders were shares of Immunic Inc, which fell 77.39% to close at 2.08. Shares of Nextplay Technologies Inc lost 33.23% and ended the session at 0.28. Quotes of Kalera PLC decreased in price by 35.61% to 0.28. The number  On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2282) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (835), while quotes of 104 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2503 companies rose in price, 1265 fell, and 238 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.97% to 29.69. Gold Gold futures for December delivery added 1.40%, or 22.95, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery rose 0.73%, or 0.62, to $85.13 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 1.24%, or 1.15, to $93.53 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.80% to hit 0.99, while USD/JPY shed 1.75% to hit 147.51. Futures on the USD index fell 0.90% to 111.80.     Relevance up to 04:00 2022-10-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/297940

USD/CAD has accelerated to near 1.3680 amid a stellar recovery in the DXY. The 10-year US Treasury yields have extended their losses to near 4.17% amid soaring market mood. The BOC may trim the extent of the rate hike to 50 bps this week. The USD/CAD pair sensed buying interest after dropping to near the round-level support of 1.3600 in early Tokyo. The loonie bulls have retreated after the US dollar index (DXY) defended the intervention rumors of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) recovered its entire intraday losses. The asset has extended its gains to near 1.3680. The DXY has recaptured its intraday high at 112.26 and is expected to behave critically ahead as the returns on US government bonds have dropped sharply. The 10-year US Treasury yields have extended their losses by 4.17% after displaying jaw-dropping gains to near 4.34% on Friday. Market sentiment is extremely cheerful and S&P500 futures are holding their gains. On Monday, the US S&P PMI data will be keenly watched. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 51.2 vs. the prior release of 52.0 while the Services PMI may drop to 49.2 from 49.3 reported earlier. This week, the interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada (BOC) will determine the further direction of the asset. A Reuters poll on projections for BOC’s interest rate claims that BOC Governor Tiff Macklem will announce a rate hike of 50 basis points (bps). The extent of the rate hike seems lower than their current pace of hiking interest rates. It is worth noting that the headline inflation rate in Canada was recorded at 6.9% for September. On the oil front, oil prices have dropped below the crucial support of $85.00 amid mounting global recession fears. In addition to the BOC, the BOJ and the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce their monetary policies. The BOJ may continue its ultra-loose stance while the ECB could tighten its monetary policy. An expectation of a fresh rate hike spell is weighing pressure on oil prices.

Gold price prints mild losses while reversing from one-week high. DXY pares the first weekly loss in three amid geopolitical, market meddling concerns. Fed speakers’ absence, likely hawkish outcome from ECB could test XAU/USD bears. Preliminary readings of US PMI for October, Q3 GDP are also important for near-term directions. Gold price (XAU/USD) remains pressured around the intraday low of $1,652, keeping the week-start pullback from a fortnight top, during early Monday morning in Europe. In doing so, the yellow metal justifies the firmer US dollar, as well as the market’s cautious mood. US Dollar Index (DXY) rises 0.30% intraday to 112.25 by the press time amid chatters surrounding Japan’s meddling in the market to defend the yen, as well as challenges to the risk appetite. That said, the news that both North and South Korea have exchanged warning shots near their disputed western sea boundary, published on Monday, also seemed to have favored the US dollar buyers of late. On the same line could be the fears that China President Xi Jinping won’t hesitate to escalate geopolitical matters with the US when it comes to Taiwan. The reason could be linked to Jinping’s dominating performance at the annual Communist Party Congress after winning the third term in a row. Additionally, ABC News quoted Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrskiy citing fears of Nuclear war, which in turn might have recalled the US dollar buyers. Recently, news that China announced covid lockdown in the factory hub Guangzhou weigh on the market sentiment and the XAU/USD prices. The latest jump in the market’s bets over the Fed’s 75 bps move in November, from 88% to 95%, also seemed to have drowned the gold prices. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print 0.50% intraday gains while the US 10-year Treasury yields remain offered around 4.17%, extending Friday’s losses from the 14-year high. That said, the US equities posted the largest weekly gains in four months in the latest amid previously receding fears of the Fed’s aggressive rate hike. On Friday, the gold price rose heavily while portraying the first weekly gain in three as the hawkish Fed bets retreat after a mixed Fedspeak. That said, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said, “I want rates that put significant downward pressure on inflation.” On the same line, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans stated that they will need to raise rates further and hold them for a while. However, Nick Timiraos, Chief Economics Correspondent at The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote that the Federal Reserve officials are barreling toward another interest-rate rise of 75 bps at their meeting in November and are likely to debate then whether and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December. Looking ahead, gold traders should expect further weakness amid dicey markets and challenges to sentiment. However, the absence of the Fed speakers and a likely hawkish outcome from the European Central Bank (ECB) could challenge the XAU/USD downside. Technical analysis Gold price retreats from the 21-DMA hurdle amid bearish MACD signals and sluggish RSI, which in turn suggests the metal’s further declines towards the resistance-turned-support line from October 06, around $1,630 by the press time. However, monthly horizontal support near $1,620, quickly followed by the yearly bottom of $1,614, could challenge the gold bears afterward. In a case where the metal prices drop below $1,614, the $1,600 threshold and the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of June-October moves, near $1,565, lure the XAU/USD bears. Alternatively, the 21-DMA and the 50-DMA, around $1,665 and $1,694 in that order, guard the short-term recovery of gold price. Following that, the $1,700 round figure and the monthly high near $1,730 might be interesting to watch for further upside. Gold: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected

Over the weekend, changes in the price of Bitcoin were minimal due to a decrease in trading activity. The macroeconomic situation also remains tense; therefore, most financial instruments are moving in large groups. Bitcoin after a month of consolidation The new trading week does not promise significant changes in price for Bitcoin, as the asset remains locked inside the $18.6k–$19.8k area. The cryptocurrency unsuccessfully tried to go beyond this range, but even bursts of volatility did not allow it to radically change the situation. However, after a month of boring consolidation, we can conclude that the $18.6k support level is the final one before updating the local bottom. The $19.8k–$20.4k zone is a key resistance area. With its bullish breakdown, the cryptocurrency has a chance to show local growth to $23k–$24k. The question of whether we should expect a radical change in the situation this week rests on the lack of independence of Bitcoin. Attention to the digital asset has reached a local bottom, and trading volumes do not exceed $30 billion. The number of unique addresses also remains low, below 800,000. At the same time, the level of correlation with stock indices and the S&P 500 has declined significantly in recent weeks. The fall in BTC volatility and movement within a narrow range increased the correlation of the cryptocurrency with gold. However, reorienting investors' positions regarding Bitcoin has only just begun. This means that in the medium term, one should not expect an increase in BTC quotes due to the popularity of the asset amid a recession. Bitcoin vs DXY The inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar index persists, and despite market expectations, DXY continues to rise. Moreover, a bullish pattern is forming on the daily chart of the asset, which may soon provoke another bullish momentum of the index. Technical indicators on the 1D point to the emergence of bullish signals. The relative strength index bounced off 50 and resumed its upward movement, which indicates an increase in buying interest. Stochastic has also resumed its upward movement and is preparing for the formation of a bullish crossover. These factors point to a growing interest in DXY in the short term. Given the bullish signals, we should expect an upward breakdown of the "triangle" figure and the price movement to the levels of 118–120. Results Bitcoin and stock indices have a pronounced inverse correlation with the US dollar index. After recent statements by Fed officials to maintain the current monetary policy, the inverse codependency has only strengthened. This means that in the short term, we should expect a decline in stock indices and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin risks at least updating the $18.6k support area. If this level is successfully passed, the price will rush to $17.6k–$18.2k. With large order volumes and liquidity below the local bottom ($17.6k), it is unlikely that market makers will hold the local bottom. This means that with a bearish breakdown of $18.6k, it is very likely that Bitcoin will update the local bottom near the $16k level.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/325094

Here is what you need to know on Monday, October 24: As investors prepare for the highly-anticipated central bank decisions later this week, major currencies stay relatively quiet at the start of the new week except for the Japanese yen. The US Dollar Index moves sideways at around 112.00 and US stock index futures trade flat on the day. S&P Global will release the preliminary October Manufacturing and Services PMI data for Germany, the euro area, the UK and the US. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index will also be looked upon for fresh impetus later in the day. During the Asian trading hours, the data from China revealed that the Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 3.9% in the third quarter. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an expansion of 3.4%. Retail Sales in China, however, rose by 2.5% on a yearly basis, falling short of analysts' estimate of 3.3%. The Shanghai Composite fell sharply following mixed data and was last seen losing more than 2% on a daily basis. USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair climbed toward 150.00 in the first hours of trading early Monday but lost over 400 pips in a matter of 10 minutes. Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda refrained from clarifying whether they intervened in the market but reiterated that they will continue to take appropriate action against excessive, disorderly market moves. Following the sharp decline witnessed in the Asian session, the pair recovered to the 149.00 area, where it's up around 1% on the day. EUR/USD EUR/USD trades in a relatively tight range near mid-0.9800s following Friday's rebound. Business activity in the euro area's and Germany's manufacturing sectors are expected to continue to contract in early October.  GBP/USD GBP/USD trades in positive territory and continues to edge higher toward 1.1400 in the early European morning on Monday. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that he ended his big to replace Liz Truss. Meanwhile, former chancellor Rishi Sunak has reportedly 165 supporters ahead of Monday's nomination deadline and remains the clear favourite to become the next PM. Gold Following Friday's impressive upsurge, gold climbed to a fresh 10-day high near $1,670 early Monday but struggled to preserve its bullish momentum. At the time of press, XAU/USD was little changed on the day at $1,657. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down nearly 2% on the day, helping gold hold its ground for the time being. BTC Bitcoin climbed toward $20,000 on Sunday but lost its traction before reaching that level. As of writing, BTC/USD was down 1% on the day at $19,350. Ethereum ended up gaining more than 4% last week and seems to have gone into a consolidation phase above $1,300 early Monday.

The Canadian dollar has started the week with losses. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3721, up 0.57%. The week ended on a high note, as Canadian retail sales for August were stronger than expected. Retail sales posted a modest 0.7% gain, rebounding from -2.2% in July and beating the consensus of 0.2%. Core retail sales also rose 0.7% after a -2.2% reading in August and above the forecast of 0.4%. The turnaround boosted the Canadian dollar by close to 1%. Consumer spending has stabilized, which has bolstered the case for the Bank of Canada raising rates by 75 basis points. As well, the BoC would like to keep pace with the Fed, which is expected to raise rates by 75 bp,  so as to prevent the Canadian dollar from falling further against the US dollar. The markets have priced in a 75bp move by the BoC at around 80%, which would bring the cash rate to an even 4.0%. Markets expect 0.75% hike from BoC The Bank of Canada has been aggressive in its rate-tightening cycle, with the reduction in inflation its number one priority. Still, there are no clear signs that inflation has peaked. Headline inflation ticked lower to 6.9% in September, down from 7.0% in August. Still, the reading was higher than the consensus of 6.8%. Core inflation remains even more stubborn and rose unexpectedly to 6.0%, up from 5.8% and above the forecast of 5.6%. The Fed has given no signals that it plans to ease up on rate hikes anytime soon, and this hawkish stance was reaffirmed by Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker on Thursday. Harker said that higher interest rates had failed to curb inflation, and the Fed would have to continue raising rates, which he said will be “well above” 4% by the end of the year. There is a 95% that the Fed will raise rates by 75bp according to the CME’s FedWatch, which would bring the benchmark rate to 4.0%. USD/CAD Technical 1.3854 and 1.4005 are the next resistance lines There is support at 1.3731 and 1.3580 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canadian dollar starts week with losses - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Technical outlook: The US dollar index might have carved a potential resistance around 113.67 last week as prices reversed sharply lower towards 111.14 thereafter. The index is seen to be trading close to 111.75 at this point as traders prepare to pull back towards the 112.30-50 area before pushing the price lower again. Ideally, prices would stay below 113.67 going forward. The US dollar index could be into its last leg lower towards 107.00 to complete its larger-degree corrective drop, which had begun from the 114.67 mark earlier. If the above-proposed structure holds well, prices would stay below 113.67 and continue dragging lower towards 107.00 in the next several trading sessions. Near-term resistance is seen through the 112.30-50 zone, which might be tested before turning lower again. The index is facing immediate resistance at 113.67, followed by 114.67 while interim support is close to 110.00, followed by 109.00 and lower respectively. A break below 110.00 will accelerate prices quickly towards 109.00 and 107.00 levels going forward. On the flip side though, a break above 113.67 will bring back the bulls into control. Trading idea: Potential drop through 107.00 against 115.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298142

Technical analysis: USD/CAD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3710 but I see potential for further bullish continuation. Trading recommendation: Due to the strong upside cycle in the background I see potential for the further upside continuation. Watch for the potential buying opportunities with the upside objective at 1.3855, 1.3980 and 1.4200. Stochastic oscillator is showing fresh upside cross, which is sign that there is potential for further rally. Key support is set at the price of 1.3600   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298169

The Canadian dollar is showing some strength in today’s North American session. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3649, down 0.41%. Bank of Canada expected to hike rates by 0.75% This week’s calendar is unusually light, with only two events out of Canada. Both releases, however, could have a significant effect on the movement of the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada will make its rate announcement on Wednesday, with the August GDP release on Friday. What can we expect from the BoC? The Bank has not been shy about raising rates, having hiked some 325 points this year. Similar to the case in the United States, inflation has proven to be stickier than anticipated, as the sharp rate-hike cycle is yet to cause a peak in inflation. In September, headline inflation ticked lower to 6.9%, down from 7.0% in August. Still, the reading was higher than the consensus of 6.8%. Core inflation remains even more stubborn and rose unexpectedly to 6.0%, up from 5.8% and above the forecast of 5.6%. Until a couple of weeks ago, the markets had been expecting the BoC to deliver a 0.50% hike at tomorrow’s meeting, but the September inflation data has raised the likelihood that policy makers will come out with guns blazing and increase rates by 0.75%. This would bring the cash rate to an even 4.0% and would be the highest rate level in the G-7. The steep rise in rates may not have curbed inflation, but it has caused significant economic pain to households and businesses and raises the likelihood of a recession. The BoC would love to ease up on oversize rate hikes but has made clear that inflation is public enemy number one and until inflation shows signs of peaking, it will continue to raise rates. A 0.75% hike will help the Canadian dollar keep pace with its US cousin, as the Federal Reserve is almost certain to deliver a 0.75% hike next week. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3656. Below, there is support at 1.3467 1.3718 and 1.3807 are resistance lines This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canadian dollar rises, markets eye BoC - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The consensus among analysts is that the BOC will raise rates another 75bps, leaving the target rate at 4.0%. Lately, Canada has been "leading" the Fed since its meetings are scheduled before its southern neighbor's. Since both countries are facing similar situations, what the BOC does is often interpreted as a little foreshadowing of what to expect out of the Fed. Therefore, if the BOC doesn't deliver on expectations, it could shake confidence in the consensus that the Fed will also raise rates by 75bps. Canadian economic data has been doing relatively well over the last couple of weeks, which is seen supporting a strong move by the BOC. But there just recently was a fly in the ointment: US flash manufacturing PMIs fell into technical contraction this month. Canada doesn't have a comparable flash reading, meaning that the situation there could be similar, but it just isn't known. Canada first to pivot? Another difference is that Canada has had core inflation slowly falling unlike the US, but still above expectations. That has raised expectations that even though the BOC is expected to hike, it will do so "dovishly". That is, after the rate hike, Governor Macklem will tone down expectations of further aggressive hikes during his post-rate decision. The BOC releases the monetary policy report (MPR) at the same time as the rate decision, and that's likely to be poured over to find any clues about when the "pivot" will happen. If the bank lowers its economic projections, then that is likely to be taken as a sign that the next rate hike won't be as aggressive. Or that the BOC might even pause in December. How long can the BOJ stay put? Despite all that's been happening with the yen lately, the BOJ is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged when it meets later in the week. Inflation has been rising in Japan, but not enough to shake the banks' extreme easing position. But that doesn't mean that Kuroda couldn't influence the market in his extensive press conference following the meeting. As the yen has weakened over the last several months, calls have risen for the BOJ to do something. There have been at least two interventions so far to stop the slide in the currency. Although it's the BOJ who does the intervention, it's at the direction of the Ministry of Finance, which has allowed the central bank to remain aloof from the currency situation. What can be done The BOJ is currently applying a series of easing tools, from negative rates, to yield curve control to buying bonds. Although it could reverse course on any of those, should the BOJ decide to take measures, it most likely would come with first removing yield curve controls, since they are the least orthodox policy and would likely be interpreted as the least change in policy. However, it's not likely that will be decided at this meeting. But it could be something that Kuroda hints at during the press conference that could finally move the yen in a more permanent direction. Otherwise, smaller interventions might be the course, which would only increase speculation of coordinated action in the future.

The market is likely to keep a close eye on the rate decision as well as the Bank of Canada’s projections in its new monetary policy report. The loonie could enjoy some gains in the short-term if the BoC delivers a 75 basis points hike as expected, economists at Commerzbank report. If the BoC only hikes by 50 bps, the loonie is set to lose further ground “We expect that CAD will be able to benefit short-term if the BoC hikes its key rate by 75 bps with the market considering its statement to be hawkish. Increasing fears of a recession might constitute a fly in the ointment though, which would reduce possible gains.” “If the BoC does not meet expectations today and only hikes the key rate by 50 bps the loonie is likely to lose further ground against the USD. Downside pressure on USD/CAD would increase further if the BoC then also issued a dovish statement.” See – BoC Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, taking what is offered, a 75 bps hike  

The first reports came from the Pacific at the start of the day. This is an instant report on inflation in Australia. In the second half of the day I am waiting for important decisions from both Americas. Australian CPI At the beginning of the day, we get to know the report on the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer in AUstralia. Both the annual and quarterly CPI results are positive. The price change from the third quarter of this year to the third quarter of last year increased by 1.2%. It was expected to rise to 7.0%, but the result turned out to be higher (7.3%). Looking at the previous periods, we can conclude that CPI YoY is in an exemplary trend. Source: investing.com CPI QoQ maintained its previous level of 1.8% and was higher than the forecasted 1.6%, therefore this reading was considered positive. BoC Interest Rate Decision Today the Bank of Canada will decide on interest rates. It is expected that this time there will be a hike of 75bp. Before the pandemic, interest rates were at 1.75%. Along with the increase in the risk of the crash, the rates dropped to the level of 0.25% and this level was maintained until March this year, when the first increase by 0.25% took place. Subsequent decisions on rate hikes confirmed the current level of 3.25%. To better understand the decisions of the Bank of Canada, traders will observe the press conference, which will take place one hour after the announcement of the new rate level. Crude Oil Inventories The weekly report on The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories will be released today. The reading is expected to be added and the number of barrels of oil held by the US Firms is expected to hit 1.029M. Such a result will mean an increase from the last level of -1.725M. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. New Home Sales (Sep) According to forecasts, the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month will drop from 685K to 585K. Which may mean that the August peak turned out to be a false reflection of the downtrend. Since the beginning of the year, sales of family houses have been in a downward trend, despite several false rebounds from this trend. We can expect this trend to continue as long as interest rates continue to rise and the Fed does not ease its actions. Source: investing.com Brazil Interest Rate Decision Today, the largest country in South America will also decide on interest rates. The level is expected to be maintained. The last three decisions remained unchanged at 13.75% and a fourth such decision is expected. As of August 2020, interest rates in Brazil were at 2.0%. There have been increases in rates since March 2021. In February this year, they exceeded the level of 10.75%. They grew until they hit 13.75% in August. Summary: 2:30 CET Australian CPI (YoY) 2:30 CET Australian CPI (QoQ) 16:00 CET BoC Interest Rate Decision 16:00 CET New Home Sales (Sep) 16:30 CET Crude Oil Inventories 17:00 CET BOC Press Conference 23:00 CET Brazil Interest Rate Decision Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

The dollar is a little softer across the board as risk assets meet some bargain hunting. We are not looking for a significant top in the dollar yet, but for those that think the days of dollar strength are numbered, the Canadian dollar would make a good vehicle to express that view. The Bank of Canada should hike rates to 4% today, which should certainly help The Bank of Canada in Ottawa USD: Corrective forces at work The dollar has softened a little this week. The move looks less like any kind of de-rating of the US economy or the Fed cycle and more an issue of investors looking for bargains in bombed-out bond and equity markets. The MSCI world equity index is now nearly 10% off its lows – a move that has been helped by some stability in Europe (the end of Trussonomics) and probably the very high cash and underweight equity positions held by the investor community. It does feel like it is too early to declare the 'all-clear' for equity markets – e.g. the Fed could well push US real rates deeper into restrictive territory – meaning that we are treating this dollar decline as corrective. After yesterday's soft US October consumer confidence data and softer house prices, the focus today is on new home sales, which may fall 15% month-on-month. It should be clear by now that the housing sector is firmly in the firing line of the Fed's restrictive policy, but it will be important to see other sectors of the US economy slowing for the Fed to conclude that aggregate demand is soft enough to offset supply constraints.  110 is a big psychological level for DXY and we would assume that it would hold ahead of another 75bp hike from the Fed next week. Chris Turner EUR: Closing in on some big levels It has been several weeks in the making, but it does now seem that EUR/USD is responding to the lower natural gas prices and the improvement in the terms of trade position. We should be a little careful here since EUR/USD is now threatening to break out of a bearish channel that has contained price action all year. That means a break of 1.00 could trigger quite a sharp short squeeze to 1.02 and at the very least slow the rate (5% per quarter) of this year's EUR/USD decline. It is probably a question then of whether the 1.00 level can hold EUR/USD up to and including tomorrow's ECB meeting, before next week's Fed meeting could provide some more support to the dollar. Chris Turner Today's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) calendar is basically empty, but we will be monitoring the aftermath of yesterday's meeting of the National Bank of Hungary, which, as expected, produced no change in interest rates. However, the central bank made it clear that it is ready to act again if the situation calls for it. In the meantime, it will continue to withdraw liquidity from the market using the measures previously introduced to keep the forint under control. However, as we mentioned earlier, further upward jumps in EUR/HUF under global development pressure cannot be ruled out at this point, and therefore further monetary tightening by the NBH cannot be ruled out either. But for the time being, the forint and the whole CEE region should enjoy favourable conditions in the form of a further decline in gas prices and a return of EUR/USD to parity. On the other hand, the ECB meeting will come into play tomorrow, which may shuffle the cards in the whole region again.  Frantisek Taborsky  GBP: Was that the bounce? UK asset markets and the pound took another leg higher yesterday as new PM Rishi Sunak took charge. It is a familiar-looking cabinet with Jeremy Hunt welcomed by the markets as Chancellor. The UK's sovereign credit default swap has now recovered to pre 'fiscal event' levels, while gilt-bund spreads are now back near the 150bp levels seen in early September. The question is therefore whether sterling needs to rally much further. 1.1500 is clearly a big level in GBP/USD (as is 1.00 in EUR/USD). A break could see the correction extend to 1.1750. But such a correction would more likely be driven by a global re-assessment of risk ($ negative) than a further re-rating of UK prospects. The UK data calendar is light today, with some focus on whether the 31 October medium-term fiscal plan will be delayed a few days. 0.8650-08750 looks to be the EUR/GBP near-term trading range. Chris Turner CAD: Canadian dollar deposits soon to start paying 4% The Bank of Canada (BoC) meets to set policy rates today. As my colleagues James Knightley and Francesco Pesole discuss in their preview, the BoC is expected to deliver a hawkish hike in the policy rate to 4.00% today. James thinks the BoC could hike a further 75bp in the cycle compared to the further 44bp currently priced into the Canadian OIS curve.  The Canadian dollar has been the best-performing G10 currency against the dollar this year, but is still down 7%. As above, if and when the dollar turns, the Canadian dollar should be at the forefront of the move. The problem has been, however, that the Canadian dollar has the highest correlation of the G10 currencies with world equity markets – in a bear market for equities. In the Canadian dollar's favour, however, will now be 4% deposit rates. Interestingly an IMF paper released earlier this year on the 'Stealth erosion of dollar dominance' concluded that three-quarters of central bank FX reserve diversification away from the dollar over the last 20 years had gone into nontraditional reserve currencies such as the Canadian dollar. Presumably, interest in the 4%-yielding AAA Canadian dollar securities will only build from the reserve management community. It helps as well that as an energy exporter, Canada has been on the right side of this year's terms of trade shock. Certainly, we look for a move back to and probably below 1.30 in USD/CAD next year. Timing is everything, of course. If equity markets can remain stable today, the hawkish BoC event risk could push USD/CAD down to 1.3500 on the day. But a sustained move below there requires a turn in the big dollar trend, which may not be a story until 2Q23. Chris Turner Read this article on THINK TagsFX Dollar Bank of Canada Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

US indices rallied yesterday on the back of soft economic data from the US, but the sentiment reversed after the Q3 results from Google and Microsoft didn't please. Both stocks fell in the afterhours trading. Rest of the earnings were mixed. Meta is the next US giant to announce earnings, and expectations are rather… low. US Yields The US 2-year yield has been easing after hitting a fresh 15-year high last week, as the US 10-year yield fell to 4.05%. The dollar index tanked around 1%, both the EURUSD and Cable advanced past their 50-DMA, which were acting as strong resistance since the start of the year, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine. Bank of Canada The USDCAD fell to a 3-week low, as the Bank of Canada (BoC) prepares to deliver another jumbo rate hike today. The BoC could deliver a 75bp hike, which would further fuel the odds of recession in Canada by next year. FX Market It’s important to note that the common denominator of the latest FX moves is the softer US dollar. And the downside moves in dollar and the US yields depend on Fed expectations – whatever the other central banks do seem accessory to the main dollar story. Fed The Fed expectations have been shaped by softish data, and some softish comments from the Fed officials recently. But there is nothing official pointing at a potential softening tone from the Fed just yet. Hence, the recent fall in the US dollar, and rebound in equities may not last. Gains remain vulnerable. And very much so, as the latest results from the US tech giants failed to make the investors smile yesterday. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:35 Soft US data fueled optimism… 3:15 … but Big Tech earnings hurt. GOOG & MSFT fell 6.5% post-market 5:01 Other companies announced mixed results 6:30…as UPS surprised 7:00 Some come back to stocks, but stock/ bond correlation remains high 7:52 Meta earnings preview: expect nothing crazy… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Meta #Google #Microsoft #UPS #Spotify #GM #Visa #UBS #CocaCola #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #CAD #BoC #rate #decision #US #home #prices #Fed #expectations #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  

A week of silence before the Fed meeting on November 2 helped reduce volatility in markets. Then, weaker macroeconomic data from the US strengthened confidence that the Fed will slow the pace of growth of interest rates. This is also why stocks continued to rally despite weak data and some deterioration in corporate earnings. Pound also rose after Rishi Sunak became the new prime minister of the UK. However, quotes are likely to move sideways starting today. USD/CAD Inflation in Canada turned out to be higher than expected in September even though it fell from 7% to 6.9% (6.8% was expected). Meanwhile, the core index rose to 6%, instead of falling from 5.8% to 5.6% as predicted. Clearly, price pressure continues to spread, capturing wider sectors of the economy. Although gas prices fell by 7.4%, rising prices in the service sector more than offset the decline. A week ago, markets expected the Fed rate to increase by 50 basis points. But now they are counting on a 75 basis point hike, and some even anticipate as much as 100 points, which, of course, is unlikely, but clearly indicates a slight panic in the markets. If the Fed press conference today is hawkish, and the November meeting hint at a potential 50bp rate hike in December, the situation will shift in favor of the loonie, which will eventually lead to a reversal of USD/CAD. Although it is too early to talk about this, the Bank of Canada will most likely act more cautiously. So far, according to the latest CFTC report, the net short position in CAD decreased by 363 million to -1.5 billion. But positioning remains bearish despite the slight adjustment. The estimated price is above the long-term average and is directed upwards, which gives reason to expect USD/CAD to continue growing. If the BoC shows firmness today, the pair is likely to fall towards the support level of 1.3510/20. But more realistic is the resumption of purchases, followed by a transition to a sideways range in anticipation of the Fed meeting on November 2. USD/JPY Yen broke the psychological level of 150 and flew to a new multi-year record, which led to an emergency intervention by the Bank of Japan. This caused USD/JPY to drop to a low of 146.23, the same magnitude as during the last intervention on September (£145.90 to £140.26). The exact amount of the intervention will be known after the Ministry of Finance publishes its report on October 31, but it is clear that it was no less than that of the previous intervention. There was another intervention on Monday, but it did not lead to the expected result. It seems that Japan is losing capital, and its foreign investment income is not enough to cover the deficit. Most likely, this will continue as long as the Bank of Japan carries on its ultra-soft policy. According to the latest CFTC report, the net short position in JPY rose by 1.267 billion to -7.9 billion. The positioning is steadily bearish, and there are no signs of a reversal. USD/JPY will continue to rise until the Bank of Japan changes its monetary policy. Perhaps, the meeting on Friday will give some news, but interventions will not be able to block growth.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-10-31 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/325331

The big event of the day is the Bank of Canada (BoC) Monetary Policy Announcement. In the view of economists at ING, the BoC should hike rates to 4%, which should certainly help the loonie.  Canadian dollar deposits soon to start paying 4% “The BoC is expected to deliver a hawkish hike in the policy rate to 4.00%. The BoC could hike a further 75 bps in the cycle compared to the further 44 bps currently priced into the Canadian OIS curve.” “Presumably, interest in the 4%-yielding AAA Canadian dollar securities will only build from the reserve management community. It helps as well that as an energy exporter, Canada has been on the right side of this year's terms of trade shock.”  “If equity markets can remain stable today, the hawkish BoC event risk could push USD/CAD down to 1.3500 on the day. But a sustained move below there requires a turn in the big dollar trend, which may not be a story until 2Q23.” See – BoC Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, taking what is offered, a 75 bps hike

The Canadian dollar has extended its gains today, as the US dollar has retreated against all the major currencies. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3547, down 0.44%. Earlier, USD/CAD dropped as low as 1.3512, its lowest level in three weeks. Read next: NASDAQ Futures Down More Than 1.5%, Xi Jinping Pushes Out Youth League Members From Politburo, Spotify Users Up 20% YoY| FXMAG.COM Bank of Canada likely to remain hawkish All eyes are on the Bank of Canada, which will meet later today. The markets have priced in a 75 basis point hike, which would be a repeat of the September rate increase. The Bank has embarked on a steep rate tightening cycle, having hiked 300 points since March. A 75 bp move today will bring the benchmark rate to 4 per cent, its highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. Of course, the economic picture is not nearly as grim as it was then, but inflation has been more stickier than expected, and the BoC has declared that its first priority is to curb inflation. In September, headline inflation ticked lower to 6.9%, down from 7.0%, but core inflation rose to 6.0%, up from 5.8%. Until this report, the markets had been expecting the BoC to deliver a 50 bp hike at tomorrow’s meeting, but the September inflation data has raised the likelihood that policy makers will come out with guns blazing and increase rates by 75 bp. At the same time, there is an outside chance that the Bank will opt for a 50 bp hike, mindful that higher rates are weighing heavily on consumers and businesses and a recession could be lurking just around the corner. With inflation driving the Bank of Canada’s rate policy, I would not be surprised to see some volatility from the Canadian dollar in the North American session.   USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3656. Below, there is support at 1.3467 1.3718 and 1.3807 are resistance lines       This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. USD/CAD hits 3-week high ahead of BoC - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Incoming data from the U.S. economy seems to indicate that the Fed's earlier interest rate hikes may already be hinting at a slowdown. It’s about a slowdown in industry, as well as in the real estate market, where negative surprises seem that have emerged. These could lead to a slowdown in the pace of hikes by the Fed, which is what the market seems to be hoping for at the moment. Worse situation in US manufacturing S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI data released this week showed a reading of 49.9 points in October 2022, compared to 52 in September, and was below market forecasts of 51 points. A reading below 50 points, according to the survey's methodology, signifies a contraction in the manufacturing sector, the first time this has happened since June 2020. New orders fell, signaling a possible drop in demand, with manufacturers stressing that high inflation and inventory build-up from earlier in the year may be contributing to this. The rise in the value of the dollar also caused export demand to fall at the fastest pace since May 2020. Meanwhile, employment grew at a slower pace. In addition, production costs accelerated after a four-month period of mild inflation, mainly due to material shortages and higher wages. Looking ahead, price pressures and expectations of higher interest rates caused sentiment in the industrial sector to deteriorate, the Markit Economic survey showed. Weakening real estate market in the United States The 20-city house price index measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller in the US rose 13.1% y/y in August 2022. Thus, the house price growth rate was the lowest since February 2021 and below forecasts at 14.4%. This also marks the fourth consecutive month of slowing house price growth in the United States. All 20 cities posted lower price increases in August, with Miami (28.6%), Tampa (28%) and Charlotte (21.3%) posting the highest year-over-year increases, while San Francisco (5.6%), Washington (7.4%) and Minneapolis (7.6%) posted the lowest. Meanwhile, the National Composite Index rose 13% in August, down from 15.6% in July, the biggest slowdown on record. Given the continued outlook for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may continue to slow," said Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI as quoted by tradingeconomics. Source: Conotoxia MT5, USDIndex, Daily The dollar exchange rate seems falling Since the beginning of the week, in fact l since Friday and the possible intervention of the Japanese authorities, the dollar exchange rate seems to be falling. On Wednesday morning, the USD index slipped below the 111-point level. After falling 1% during the previous session. The USD's weakness may be due to the market's growing conviction that the US Federal Reserve would be less aggressive in the coming months. After a widely expected 75-basis-point rate hike in November, Fed officials are probably considering a smaller hike in December amid concerns about excessive monetary tightening, WSJ reported. The aforementioned weaker U.S. data this week, signaling that previous rate hikes may have already had an impact on the economy, seem to support such a view. It also appears that countries such as Japan and China are fed up with a strengthening US dollar. The former has already been expected to intervene twice in the forex market, while the latter was expected to intervene yesterday. As Reuters reported, China's major state-owned banks have been selling U.S. dollars on both the domestic and foreign markets to support the weakening yuan. Daniel Kostecki, director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Cinkciarz.pl investment service) Read more reviews and open a demo account at invest.conotoxia.com Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

USDCAD tests key support The Canadian dollar softened after the BoC surprised the market with a smaller-than-expected rate hike. On the daily chart, the rally came to a halt in the supply zone from May 2020 under 1.4000. The greenback is testing the recent low at 1.3500, a key level to keep short-term buyers interested. A lack of bids suggests that traders could be wary of chasing after an already high exchange rate. A breakout would force the bulls to bail out and trigger a deeper correction with 1.3360 as the next target. 1.3640 is the closest resistance. NZDUSD bounces higher The New Zealand dollar climbs as soft US data raises risk appetite. The daily resistance at 0.5810 has been capping the recent price action. But a ‘buy-the-dips’ behaviour off March 2020’s low (0.5500) has offered the kiwi effective support. A series of higher lows indicates growing buying pressure. A bullish breakout would prompt sellers to cover their bets, paving the way for an extended rally should momentum pick up. 0.5880 would be the next stop and 0.5730 at the base of the breakout the first support in case of a pullback. USOIL finds support WTI crude rallied after data showed a rise in US crude exports. The price has stabilised near a 3-week low (82.00). A bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests a potential acceleration to the upside. Cautious traders may wait for a bullish breakout as a form of confirmation. After a break above 87.00, sentiment would only start to shift in the bulls’ favour if they succeed in pushing past the support-turned-resistance at 89.80. 85.00 is a fresh support and 82.00 an important floor to keep the current bounce valid.

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory today. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3607, up 0.39%. Bank of Canada surprise The Bank of Canada unleashed a dovish surprise on Wednesday as it raised rates by 0.50%, below the consensus of a 0.75% hike. This follows the 0.75% hike in September and brings the cash rate to 3.75%, its highest level since 2008. The BoC acknowledged that there is no “meaningful evidence” that inflation is falling and said that it still expects to have to increase rates, given that inflation remains high. This raises the question of why did the BoC not press the pedal to the floor and deliver a 0.75% hike if inflation remains persistently high? The answer lies in the growth forecasts that the BoC released at the meeting. GDP for Q4 2022 is expected to slow to 0.5% YoY, while GDP in 2023 has been slashed to 0.9%, down from the previous estimate of 1.7%. The Bank said that the economy could produce two quarters of negative growth. If this does happen, the economy would technically be in a recession. The economy is clearly slowing down as a result of the steep increase in rates, and the BoC is easing up, in the hopes of guiding the economy to a soft landing and avoiding a recession. High rates are weighing on households and businesses and the BoC may be concerned that further oversize rates may pose a risk to financial stability. The BoC’s 0.50% hike could pose a headwind for the Canadian dollar. If the Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%, as is widely expected, this will lead to a widening in the US/Canada rate differential. The Canadian dollar has taken advantage of recent weakness in the US dollar and has risen about 2 per cent since October 17th. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3656. Below, there is support at 1.3467 1.3718 and 1.3807 are resistance lines This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canadian dollar dips after BoC's dovish hike - MarketPulseMarketPulse

After two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth the economy has expanded by 2.6% in the third quarter. However, the outlook is deteriorating rapidly as the cumulative effects of 300bp of rate hikes weigh on activity and the Fed signals it will tolerate a sustained period of sub-trend growth to ensure inflation hits target Third quarter GDP rose by 2.6% 2.6% Third quarter GDP growth (QoQ% annualised) Higher than expected Net trade drives third quarter GDP higher The US economy met the technical definition of a recession when GDP fell in both the first and second quarters of the year, but it didn’t feel like a real downturn. Consumer spending and business capital expenditure rose, while the economy created more than 3.5mn jobs. Instead, it was volatility in trade and inventories, a legacy of the long-running supply chain problems around the globe, that led to the contraction. But the picture has begun to look quite different through the third quarter. Overall GDP grew by 2.6% on an annualised basis, with net trade doing a lot of the leg work. But this decent headline reading masks some less encouraging trends beneath the surface. Consumer spending growth has slowed, albeit perhaps not as much as expected. Personal consumption grew by 1.4% in the third quarter, compared to 2% in the second. Meanwhile, residential investment is now exerting a massive drag, given the rapid slowdown in housing transactions. This component shaved 1.4% off the overall GDP figure in the third quarter, a symptom of a housing market that is moving from a period of significant excess demand to one with modest excess supply.  Contributions to US quarterly annualised GDP growth Source: Macrobond, ING Recession will feel much more real in 2023 With the Fed signaling that it is prepared to accept weaker activity, and even tolerate recession, to get inflation under control, next week’s widely expected 75bp interest rate hike won’t be the last move from the Federal Reserve. Rising borrowing costs throughout the economy and the strong dollar are creating a massive headwind. At the same time, the weak external environment is adding to the downside risks to growth, led by Europe's forthcoming energy-driven recession, and China still being constrained by Covid containment measures. So while the US may have just exited a technical recession, the cold winds are set to get a whole lot chillier this winter and make recession feel much more real in early 2023. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

USD/CAD takes offers to reverse the previous day’s bounce off monthly low. RSI, MACD suggests further downside past immediate horizontal support. 50-DMA, two-month-old ascending trend line lures bears, fortnight-long resistance line, 21-DMA test buyers. USD/CAD appears all-set to print a two-week downtrend as sellers approach a short-term key horizontal support during early Friday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Loonie pair slides to 1.3530 as it fades Thursday’s recovery from the lowest levels in a month. Not only the inability to rebound from the three-week-old region surrounding 1.3500, but the bearish MACD signals and the RSI (14) also keep the sellers hopeful of breaking the nearby support zone. Following that, a downward trajectory towards the 50-DMA level near 1.3430 and then to the upward-sloping support line from early August, at 1.3280 by the press time, will lure the USD/CAD bears. In a case where the pair sellers dominate past 1.3280, the early September top near 1.3210 will precede the 1.3200 round figure to restrict the quote’s further downside. On the flip side, recovery remains elusive below a two-week-old descending resistance line, close to 1.3660 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the USD/CAD upside past 1.3660 will be challenged by the 21-DMA hurdle of 1.3700, a break of which could convince bulls to attack multiple resistance levels near 1.3840 and the monthly high near 1.3980. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected

Away from G10 markets, the Egyptian pound finally sold off 17% yesterday as local policymakers had to implement a flexible exchange regime to secure IMF funding. Attention will turn to countries in similar predicaments. For today, the highlight will probably be US price data, including the 3Q employment cost index release. Dollar to remain bid on dips The decline in the Egyptian pound is not unexpected as the country has suffered from higher global interest rates USD: 3Q22 employment cost data will be important In a busy day for FX yesterday, one could be forgiven for missing that Egypt had devalued its pound – or more correctly, had allowed it to float. Stepping back from managing its exchange rate had been a pre-condition the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had outlined to Egyptian authorities in return for a 46-month, $3bn loan. The decline in the pound was not unexpected as Egypt suffered from both this year's food inflation shock and higher global interest rates. As my colleague James Wilson highlighted in his emerging market (EM) overview: 'Back to the 80s: What soaring inflation, US rate hikes, and a stronger dollar mean for EM debt', Egypt screened poorly for government interest expenses as a percent of GDP – not far behind Sri Lanka which had already defaulted on its debt earlier this year. The question then turns to which country might be in a similar predicament to Egypt. Egypt's sovereign credit default swap (CDS) had been trading above 1000bp ahead of yesterday's move. There are ten other EM sovereigns with CDS above 1000bp. Many are in Africa and in Central America. Perhaps the most in focus now could be Nigeria's naira (NGN). Here Nigeria also has a relatively high government interest cost relative to GDP (30%) and its CDS trades at 1070bp – very close to Egypt. Local authorities in Nigeria have managed $/NGN closely over recent years, but have recently allowed the naira to depreciate 5% since the summer. 3m implied yields through the FX forward are still 37% higher, with pressure building for a $/NGN move to 500 into next spring. Back to today in G10, the hot story will be US price data. We get to see the 3Q22 Employment Cost Index (ECI). This is an influential number for the Fed and its spike to 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter certainly contributed to this year's hawkish Fed. Consensus expects the 3Q ECI to soften to the 1.2% QoQ area in today's release. Any upside surprise could push the pricing of the Fed terminal rate (now 4.75% and off a recent high at 5.00%) higher. This would be dollar positive. Maybe 110 does prove support for DXY after all. A final few points for the strong dollar story: i) the Bank of Japan kept policy unchanged and has CPI forecasts for FY23 and FY24 down at 1.6%, justifying dovish policy and a weak Japanese yen ii) Brazil has contentious presidential elections on Sunday, $/BRL could be a lot higher Monday morning and iii) the latest BIS triennial FX survey shows the dollar retaining its dominant status in global FX transactions. Chris Turner EUR: A dovish 75bp hike? The ECB hiked rates by 75bp yesterday, but in some ways, it could have been described as a dovish hike. Certainly, interest rate markets took note of the reference to 'substantial progress being made in withdrawing monetary accommodation' and took 30bp off the pricing of the terminal ECB rate, which is now priced at 2.50%. We still think that it is too high. The repricing of the ECB cycle saw euro two-year swap rates fall and the spread to two-year dollar rates (normally a key driver of EUR/USD) widen back out to 200bp in favour of the dollar. That is the widest since mid-August. We had said going into the meeting that interest rate differentials had not been playing a big role in EUR/USD pricing, although that could reverse into December as speculation of an ECB pivot grows. For today, EUR/USD might bounce around a little as ECB hawks brief the media that the central bank's statement was not quite as dovish as the market has interpreted. But we think the dollar should stay supported into next week's FOMC meeting and would favour EUR/USD edging down today to the 0.9910/20 area – marking the top of a bear trend channel which was recently broken. Chris Turner GBP: Taking stock ahead of next week's BoE meeting Sterling will be settling into ranges ahead of next week's event risks in the form of both the Fed and Bank of England (BoE) rate meetings. Intriguingly, the pricing for next week's BoE rate meeting is starting to drift below a 75bp hike to 3.00%. Remember that at the height of the fiscal fiasco, the market had briefly priced the bank rate being taken to 3.90% at next week's meeting. We think the chances of a 50bp hike from the BoE are greater than the market currently prices – and that is a sterling negative. Let's see whether GBP/USD can break back under 1.1500 today, while the softer euro probably defines the EUR/GBP range somewhere in the 0.8600-0.8700 region. Chris Turner CEE: ECB provides a mixed outcome for the region The regional calendar is almost empty again and today we will see only PPI data from Hungary. The Central and Eastern Europe region continues to follow global events and the ECB yesterday injected new impetus into this. On the one hand, the fall in the EUR curve means higher interest rate differentials across the region. In Poland and the Czech Republic, this led to new highs in differentials, supporting local FX on its way to stronger levels. On the other hand, EUR/USD back below parity is clearly negative news for the CEE region and we are likely to see a negative reaction to it today. Moreover, gas prices have moved back above EUR 100/MWh, probably in response to the EU's indecision on how to proceed with price cap measures. Thus, overall we are likely to see a halt to the CEE FX rally of the last two weeks and adopt a wait-and-see mode before a heavy calendar next week. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK TagsFX ECB Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The Canadian dollar is lower today. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3617, up 0.39%. Markets eye Canada’s GDP The week wraps up with Canada’s GDP for August. The economy is expected to have expanded by 0.1%, which would be unchanged from July. The economy is likely heading into a recession, and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland stated recently that the coming months would be a “challenging economic time.” The government’s key priority is curbing high inflation, which has eased slightly. In September, inflation fell to 6.9%, down from 7.0% in August. Still, this was higher than the consensus of 6.7%, as soaring food prices kept inflation from falling further. The good news is that inflation appears to have peaked from the June level of 8.1%, which marked a 40-year high. The bad news is that core inflation was unchanged at 5.3% in September, a sign that inflation remains sticky, despite the Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle. High inflation pushed the BoC to deliver another oversize rate on Wednesday, but the 0.50% hike was considered dovish, as the consensus stood at 0.75%. The cash rate is now at 3.75%, its highest level since 2008. Although inflation is far from being beaten, Canada’s economy is clearly slowing down as a result of the steep increase in rates, and the BoC is easing up on the rate pedal just a bit, in the hopes of guiding the economy to a soft landing and avoiding a recession. High rates are weighing on households and businesses and the BoC is concerned that further oversize rates may pose a risk to financial stability. The US releases Personal Income and Spending data later today as well as the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE Price Index. The index is expected to rise to 5.2%, up from 4.9%, but I don’t expect today’s numbers to change the Fed’s plan to raise rates by 0.75% next week. . USD/CAD Technical There is support at 1.3656 1.3467 1.3718 and 1.3807 are resistance lines This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The euro-dollar pair ended the last trading week at 0.9965 – so to speak, in "neutral territory". Bulls on EUR/USD were unable to settle above the parity level, while bears were unable to develop a downward momentum to return to the 98-97 figure area. As a result, the parties stopped around the 1.0000 mark and dispersed to the corners of the ring. At the same time, there is no doubt that traders will come together again next week. The Federal Reserve will act as the arbiter of this confrontation. The US central bank will determine the winner: either the dollar will collapse throughout the market (and the EUR/USD pair will not be an exception here), or dollar bulls will organize another rally.     The Fed will announce the results of its next meeting on November 2. On the one hand, the results of this meeting are predictable. The probability of a 75-point rate hike is now estimated by the market at 82%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The main intrigue of the November meeting lies in the further pace of tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. Again, if we focus on the CME data, the probability of a 75-point rate hike in December is only 43.4%. Whereas the probability of implementing a 50-point scenario is estimated at 48.2%. A 25-point hike is also not excluded, although this scenario is unlikely (8.4%). Rumors that the Fed will slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening (after the November meeting) especially intensified last week, when the so-called "silence mode" was already in effect (for 10 days before the meeting, Fed members cannot voice comments in the public plane). An interesting situation has developed: amid the "forced silence" of the representatives of the Fed, weak macroeconomic reports were published in America, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. At the same time, it became known that the volume of US GDP in the third quarter increased by 2.6%, after a two-quarter decline in the first half of 2022. Now the Fed members will have to resolve this. Actually, there are only two scenarios: either the Fed expresses its concern about the "side effects" of aggressive tightening of monetary policy (hinting at a decrease in the rate of rate hikes in December and beyond), or the central bank again focuses on inflation, thereby confirming its intention to raise the interest rate at an aggressive pace. Many factors speak in favor of the second, hawkish scenario. Among them is the corresponding position of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the growth of inflation indicators (core CPI, base PCE). On the side of the conditionally dovish scenario, there are gloomy prospects for the American economy. According to many experts, US GDP growth will slow down in the coming months, as consumers and businesses continue to cut spending in the face of rising interest rates and uncertainty. On Wednesday we will find out which way the scales will tilt. In my opinion, the Fed will maintain its hawkish attitude, after which the dollar will strengthen its position throughout the market. Powell has repeatedly stated that the fight against high inflation is the number one task for the Fed. Similar statements were made by many of his colleagues, including those who have the right to vote in the Committee. In general, the economic calendar of the upcoming week is full of events. For example, key data on inflation growth in the eurozone will be published on Monday. According to most analysts, the overall consumer price index in October will jump to 10.2%, the core CPI – to 5.1%. However, given the results of the October ECB meeting (which were announced last Thursday), this release will have a limited impact on the EUR/USD pair. On Tuesday, traders will focus on the ISM manufacturing index, which should fall to the 50.0 mark. If it falls below the 50-point value, the dollar will be under significant pressure. On Wednesday, as mentioned above, the Fed will announce the results of its November meeting. Also on this day, the ADP agency will publish a report on the state of the labor market in the United States. This release serves as a kind of "petrel" ahead of the release of Nonfarm, which will be published a day later, on November 4. On Thursday, we should pay attention to the dynamics of the index of business activity in the US services sector from the ISM Institute. Negative dynamics is also expected here (a decrease from 56 points to 54). And finally, on Friday, Nonfarm will be the central release of the day. According to preliminary forecasts, the unemployment rate will increase slightly in October (from 3.5% to 3.6%), and the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector will grow by 200,000. The average hourly wage should slow down to 4.7% (in annual terms). However, all of the above releases, despite their significance, will play a secondary role for the EUR/USD pair (perhaps, except for Non-Farms). The tone of trading will be set by the Fed. If the US central bank refutes (explicitly or covertly) rumors about a slowdown in the pace of monetary policy tightening, EUR/USD bears will be able to mark at least 0.9830. At this price point, the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator coincides with the Kijun-sen line and the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart. With a high degree of probability, bears will push through this level of support and will be designated in the area of the 97th figure. But if the dovish rumors are really confirmed, bulls will again try to gain a foothold above the parity level. The key resistance level here will be the 1.0060 mark – this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe. Relevance up to 12:00 2022-10-31 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/325712

Wednesday 02 November Germany. Index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (final release) This S&P Global report is an analysis of a survey of 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier shipments and inventory. Since purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date information on the situation in the company, this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the German economy as a whole. This sector of the economy forms a significant part of Germany's GDP. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6, 56.9, 58.4, 59.8, 57.4, 57.4, 57.8 , 58.4, 62.6. The preliminary value was 45.7. The level of influence on the markets (final release) is average. Eurozone. Index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (final release) The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the entire European economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 48.4, 48.9, 49.8, 52.1, 54.6, 56.5, 58.2. The preliminary value was 46.6. The level of influence on the markets (final release) is average. USA. ADP Private Sector Employment Report ADP will present the monthly report on employment in the private sector of the US economy in October. This report usually has a strong impact on the market and dollar quotes, although, as a rule, there is no direct correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls. Strong data has a positive effect on the dollar; a decrease in the indicator can negatively affect it. In any case, during the release of this report, there may be an increase in volatility in the market and, above all, in dollar quotes. Previous values: 208,000 in September, 185,000 in August, 270,000 in July, 358,000 in May, 457,000 in April, 425,000 in March, 375,000 in February, 372,000 in January 2022. The level of influence on the markets is medium to high. USA. The Fed's interest rate decision. Fed Commentary on Monetary Policy The level of interest rates is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Most other economic indicators are only looked at by investors to predict how rates will move in the future. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates again by 75 bps (up to 4.00%) and, possibly, will announce plans for its further increase, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will explain the decision. Market participants expect the US central bank to accelerate the tightening cycle of monetary policy. However, what will happen after the November meeting is not entirely clear. During the announcement of the Fed's decision, volatility in the market usually increases sharply, primarily in the US stock market and in dollar quotes. Powell's comments could affect both short-term and long-term USD trading. A more hawkish stance on the Fed's monetary policy is seen as positive and strengthens the US dollar, while a more cautious stance is seen as negative for the USD. Investors want to hear Powell's opinion on the Fed's plans for this year. The level of influence on the markets is high. USA. FOMC (Open Market Committee) press conference The press conference of the Federal Open Market Committee is used by the Fed to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It examines the factors that influenced recent interest rate decisions and comments on the economic environment in which the decision was made. The FOMC press conference lasts about an hour and consists of two parts. The first part reads the ruling, followed by a series of questions from invited members of the press and answers from the leadership of the Fed. Almost always, the course of the Fed's press conference (after the meeting on monetary policy) is accompanied by an increase in volatility in the markets, primarily in dollar quotes and US stock market instruments. The level of influence on the markets is high. Relevance up to 10:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/325632

Friday 04 November Australia. RBA Commentary on Monetary Policy This document, which is a report of a recent meeting of the RBA's management reviewing economic and financial conditions, provides valuable information on the bank's position on the outlook for the economy, the labor market and inflation - key factors that will determine the future of monetary policy. If the RBA is positive about the state of the labor market in the country, GDP growth rates, and also shows a "hawkish" attitude towards the inflationary forecast in the economy, the markets regard this as a higher probability of a rate hike at the next meeting, which is a positive factor for the AUD. The soft rhetoric of statements and comments of the bank's leaders regarding, first of all, inflation will put pressure on the AUD. Germany. Composite index (PMI) of business activity (final release) This S&P Global report is an analysis of a survey of 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier shipments and inventory. Since purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date information on the situation in the company, this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the German economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 45.7, 46.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7, 54.3, 55.1, 55.6, 53.8 (in January 2022). The preliminary score was 44.1. The level of influence on the markets (final release) is from low to medium. Eurozone. Composite index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (final release) The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the entire European economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 48.1, 48.9, 49.8, 52.1, 54.6, 56.5, 58.2. The preliminary score was 47.1. The level of influence on the markets (final release) is from low to medium. USA. NFP (number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector) and unemployment rate The central event of Friday will be the monthly report of the US Department of Labor with data on the main indicators of the country's labor market for October. Market participants are closely following this report, and market volatility during the period of its release usually rises sharply, especially in dollar quotes. The growth of this report's figures (average hourly wages and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector) and the decrease in the unemployment rate are positive for the dollar. Previous values (average hourly wages/new jobs created outside the agricultural sector / unemployment rate): +0.3% in September and August, +0.5% in July, +0.3% in June, May and April, +0.4% in March, 0% in February, +0.7% in January 2022 / 0.263 million in September, 0.315 million in August, +0.528 million in July, +0.372 million in June, +0.390 million in May, +0.428 million in April, +0.431 million, +0.678 million in February, +0.467 million in January 2022 / 3.5% in September, 3.7% in August, 3.5% in July, 3 .6% in June, May, April and March, 3.8% in February, 4.0% in January 2022. Forecast for October: +0.3% / +0.200 million / 3.6%, respectively. The indicators can be called, if not strong, then very positive. At the same time, unemployment remains at minimal levels. In any case, the market reaction to the US Department of Labor report may be unpredictable, because. indicators of previous monthly reports can often be revised, and not always for the better. With volatility traditionally expected to spike around the time this report is released, it may be best for conservative traders to stay out of the market during this time frame. The level of influence on the markets is high. Canada. Labor market data As for the Fed, data on GDP, inflation and the labor market are decisive for the Bank of Canada when planning the parameters of monetary policy. Despite the fact that unemployment rose in Canada during the coronavirus pandemic (from the usual 5.6% - 5.7% to 7.8% in March and already up to 13.7% in May 2020), in recent months there have also been some progress. The decline in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the CAD. If unemployment rises, the Canadian dollar will fall. Previous unemployment rates: 5.2%, 5.4%, 4.9%, 4.9%, 5.1%, 5.2%, 5.3%, 5.5%, 6.5% ( in January 2022), which indicates an improvement in the situation in the Canadian labor market. The level of influence on the markets is medium to high. Relevance up to 10:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/325632

U.S. earnings season is underway, and through it, we could learn how the current economic situation is affecting various sectors. Unlike last week, in which it was possible to get an impression of a better-than-expected situation in the banking sector, we now seem to be experiencing a negative surprise among many technology giants. Macroeconomic data At the start of the week, we learned the PMI industrial health index for Germany and the UK, with results of 45.7 points (47 points were expected), and 45.8 points (48 points were expected), respectively. We could see similar readings in July 2022. In addition, these values may indicate a deepening recession in the sector (a reading below 50 points is taken as a decline in activity). On Wednesday, we learned data from the US real estate market. September home sales came in at 604,000 (585,000 was expected), down 74,000 from the previous reading. It seems that the decline may have been caused by rising interest rates and an increase in mortgage rates, which fewer and fewer Americans can afford. On Thursday, we could learn about the Eurozone interest rate decision, which was raised in line with analysts' expectations by 0.75 percentage points, and now the main refinancing rate is at 2% and the deposit rate at 1.5%. The U.S. labor market appears to remain strong, with the number of new claims for unemployment benefits at 217,000 (220,000 was expected). These are the lowest figures since March 2020. Equity market It seems that a positive week cannot be credited to the FAANG tech giants (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google). Only Netflix surprised with a positive result last week. On the other hand, the CEO of Meta Platforms (Facebook) hinted after the company's conference that he was wary of costs in his metaverse project. This information may have influenced the close of Thursday's session and a share price drop of more than 24 percent. Source: Mt5, Facebook, Weekly Also, surprising was a tweet shared by Elon Musk, in which he showed that he had come with the kitchen sink to Twitter headquarters. We learned that the deal to buy the company was coming to an end at the original price of $54.2 per share. For this reason, the board of directors of the New York Stock Exchange decided to suspend trading of the stock during Friday's session. Meanwhile, the U.S. real estate industry may have surprised positively, as results came in better than expected despite seemingly declining demand and an environment of rising interest rates. Falling commodity prices and widespread inflation may have allowed business costs to be passed on to customers. As a result, almost half of the real estate companies (AlexRe, Equity, Essex, among others) reported net income from operations more than 50 percent higher than expectations. Currency market After Thursday's Eurozone interest rate decision, the EUR/USD exchange rate hovered around parity at 1.000 for a while, eventually falling to a range of 0.995-1.000. It seems that the European currency is starting to strengthen, this time in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC meeting on November 2. Interest rates remained unchanged following Friday's central Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. As Reuters reports: “The Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates on Friday and maintained its dovish guidance, cementing its status as an outlier among global central banks tightening monetary policy, as recession fears dampen prospects for a solid recovery. The central bank also announced plans to increase the frequency of its bond buying next month, doubling down on efforts to defend its ultra-loose monetary policy.”. As a result, the price of the USD/JPY pair has risen above JPY 147 since the decision. Source: MT5, USDJPY, Daily Earnings Results season continues next week On Monday, we will learn CPI inflation readings for the Eurozone. On Wednesday, the FOMC's decision on interest rate changes appears to be key. Analysts' consensus is for a 0.75 percentage point hike, in addition, US crude oil inventories may prove important. On Friday, on the other hand, we will learn data on the change in employment in non-farm sectors (NFP), which the FED seems to pay particular attention to. The continuation of the earnings season on Wall Street will show us on Monday the results of the fund of famed investor Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway (BerkshireHa). On Tuesday, we'll learn the Q3 results of healthcare giant Pfizer (Pfizer) and one of the semiconductor and processor industry leaders AMD (AMD). On Thursday, Paypal (PayPal), Starbucks (Starbucks) and Airbnb (AirBNB) will report. The results of the last company may seem particularly interesting, bringing us closer to the situation in the travel industry. Author: Grzegorz Dróżdż, a Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Read more reviews and open a demo account at invest.conotoxia.com Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com

Summary:  Equities closed higher on Friday on the Wall Street, sending a bid tone to Asian stocks to start the new week. However a host of risks ahead including the Fed meeting which will see another jumbo rate hike but focus is also whether the members send out signals of a downshift in rate hike path. WSJ Timiraos has now hinted at higher for longer interest rates in his latest article, and this has helped a bid tone in US dollar to return in early Asian trading hours. Geopolitics also took an ugly turn with Russia backing off from grain export deal, threatening food crisis again. What is happening in markets? Need to know Asian stocks look to build on last week's US gains, though investors may be cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting. The S&P 500 jumped 2.5% on Friday in another turbulent session, buoyed by tech shares and some modestly positive economic data. Treasuries snapped a three-day rally, with 10-year yields rising back to around 4%, while the dollar inched up. Russia pulls out of the agreement to allow Ukrainian crop shipments, meaning its ready to halt Ukraine Wheat exports. Chinese President Xi Jinping will host a flurry of foreign leaders this week, making a return to the world stage after China's Covid Zero restrictions. On Thursday some Chinese cities ramped up COVID-19 restrictions and the IMF downgraded China’s growth expectations to 3.2%, after a 8.1% rise in 2021. Oil and gold both retreated. The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) & S&P 500 (US500.I) trade near 6-week highs Apple (AAPL) shares rocked up 7.6% after it reported mostly better than expected results last week, and the sentiment buoyed technology shares, helping the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 notch their longest weekly rising streak since August. Plus, economic data showed small signs of improvement in the battle against inflation. This week, the most prominent companies to report quarterly results include; Exxon Mobil, Berkshire Hathaway, Advanced Micro Devices, Qualcomm, UBER, PayPal, and Starbucks. If you are looking for inspiration this week, here is the Five Stocks To Watch video. Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) futures suggest a bullish 1.3% rise on Monday AM The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday is expected to deliver a 2nd straight quarter of 0.25% hikes on Tuesday’s meeting, according to Bloomberg. Australia’s corporate bond market is showing signs of succumbing to the global volatility in fixed income, unleashed by central bank tightening. And this is causing Australian tech stocks to remain pressured. Focus today is on earnings from Nickel Mines (NIC), Origin Energy(ORG), and coal company Corando Global (CRN). Elsewhere, pressure will likely be on iron ore giants, which might expect their selling rout after China increased covid-19 restrictions. Focus will be on Fortescue Metal, BHP and Rio Tinto which are all trading under their 200-day moving average. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) trades at $88. Iron ore (SOCA) erases 3-years of gains Oil fell on Friday with WTI (CLX2 & LCOZ2) settling near $88 but posting a 3.4% weekly gain, despite the biggest crude importer, China, widening its COVID-19 curbs. This week; OPEC unveils its 2022 World Oil Outlook at the ADIPEC conference Monday. Plus, there is a swathe of energy ministers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Nigeria will also weigh in, as well as CEOs from BP and Occidental. Meanwhile, Iron ore (SCOA) now trades at its lowest level since 2019, US$78.40 after China confirmed it will maintain its covid-19 policies. Markets, businesses, commodities with high exposure to China see heavy selling this week. Will it continue?  Assets with exposure to China are being heavily penalized as it seems investors are realigning their portfolios somewhat with the priorities of President Xi and his policy on stronger state control over the economy, which means markets could be challenged for years. Xi confirmed this stance on Sunday 24 October, and on top of that China increased covid-19 curbs, which is why Hong Kong’s Heng Seng suffered at 8.3%, drop last week, while the iron ore (SCOA, SCOX2) price fell ~15% last week, and now traded at $78.40 its lowest level since Feb 2019, on concerns that the biggest iron ore consumer will further slow demand, all while iron ore seems oversupplied. The biggest pure play iron ore company in the southern hemisphere, Fortescue (FMG) shares fell 10% last week, plus what added to the selling was that Fortescue affirmed it is increasing its spending, while its margins are tightening. Fortescue says it will ramp up iron ore production at its expanded facility in March, instead of June. Meaning, this could likely further push the iron ore market into greater oversupply. Some investors are concerned Fortescue Metals technical indicators show that perhaps more selling could be ahead, despite the stock trading somewhat in oversold territory. US dollar back on the front foot in Fed week The US dollar was seen returning to mild gains against most major currencies after Fed-pivot bets picked up last week. A turnaround in comments from Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos who is now suggesting higher-for-longer rates (read below) may be one of the reasons. The uptick in geopolitical worries with Russia pulling out of the grain deal may however also play a part in bidding safe haven flows to the dollar. Fed is expected to hike rates by another 75bps this week, and pricing for December is also close to 75bps still. This will likely revive pressure on the JPY this week, while GBP seems to have priced in all the good news for now. USDJPY heading to 148 in early Asian hours while GBPUSD testing 1.1600. Wheat futures (ZWZ2) gap higher Wheat futures (ZWZ2) gapped up 7% to open at $8.88/bushel after Russia pulled out of the UN brokered black sea grain deal over the weekend after Ukraine carried out an attack on Russia’s Black Sea fleet off Sevastopol. Corn has also gained 2.5% to open at $6.96/bushel. What to consider? US core PCE sends no clear signal to the Fed The US core PCE, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, remained elevated for September as expected. The core measure came in at 5.1% YoY from 4.9% previously, but remained a notch softer than expected at 5.2% YoY. On a m/m basis, gains were flat at 0.5% as expected. While the case for November’s 75bps rate hike from the Fed is still intact, it still remains hard to argue a downshift with the kind of strength we are seeing in the US economy. WSJ Fed whisperer now signalling higher-for-longer rates Nick Timiraos, who is seen as the Fed’s messenger, had sent shivers across markets last week with a report suggesting that the November FOMC meeting may be used to signal a downshift to smaller rate hikes. This saw equity markets extending gains while the USD was on the backfoot last week, but now he has come out with another article saying that higher savings buffers and lower interest expenses could make the Federal Reserve raise rates higher and keep them there for longer. Russia exits Ukraine grain deal Russia suspended its participation in the Ukraine grain export deal after a swarm of drones targeted at least one Russian warship from the Black Sea navy. This will block the passage of millions of tonnes of grain via southern Ukraine and may lead to a fresh jump in prices. The report is especially catastrophic as it comes together with massive wheat crop damage with the US crop belt seeing La Nina for its third consecutive year. Putin is getting desperate after losing ground militarily and in terms of Europe’s winter gas requirement, so he has likely gone back to using the food crisis as another tool. Fed, BOE, RBA meet – what can you expect The Fed and BOE and RBA are expected to hike this week, with robust labour markets defying efforts to tamp down inflation, despite predictions of a imminent recession. Companies are complaining of chronic worker shortages, and a persistent mismatch between hiring demand and supply is supporting wages and shielding consumers from slowdowns. Consensus expects the RBA to take the cash rate from 2.6% to 2.85% on Tuesday. On Wednesday the Fed meets and consensus expects to take rates up by 0.75% to 4%. All in all, Goldman Sachs raised its peak Fed rate prediction to 5% from 4.75%, citing "uncomfortably high" prices will keep rates higher for long. On Thursday the Bank of England meets, and consensus expects to take the rate from 2.25% to 3%. This means FX markets are expected to be quite volatile along with equity market, especially interest rate sensitive parts of the market, tech, consumer spending and real estate stocks. Lula’s comeback in Brazilian presidential elections Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva claimed a victory in Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, defeating incumbent rightwing leader Jair Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points and setting the stage for a return to leftwing governance in Latin America’s largest nation. Brazilian ETFs including such as EWZ:arcx, IBZL:xams, RIO:xpar, BRZU:arcx, or BRQ:arcx may be the ones to watch, as will be the BRL later in the day. BRL has been the best performer in the EM basket (excluding Russian rouble) against the USD so far this year. Lack of economic plans from Lula may make a case for market outperformance somewhat weaker, however. China PMIs out today at 9:30am SGT/HKT China’s October PMIs are due for a release today and expectations are for the manufacturing number to dip into the contractionary territory with Bloomberg consensus expecting a 49.8 print from 50.1 in September. A slowdown is also expected in the non-manufacturing print, but it still may remain in expansion.   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-31-oct-31102022

USD/CAD gains traction for the third straight day and is supported by a combination of factors. Sliding crude oil prices undermines the loonie and acts as a tailwind amid modest USD strength. The upside seems limited as the focus remains glued to the FOMC policy decision on Wednesday. The USD/CAD pair attracts some buying for the third successive day on Monday and maintains its bid tone through the early European session. The pair is currently placed around the 1.3635 region and might now be looking to build on its bounce from levels just below the 1.3500 psychological mark, or over a one-month low touched last Thursday. Crude oil prices come under some selling pressure on Monday after weaker-than-expected Chinese business activity data revives fears about a deeper global economic downturn and slowing fuel demand. This, in turn, undermines the commodity-linked loonie and is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair amid a modest US dollar strength. Furthermore, the disappointing Chinese economic data temper investors' appetite for riskier assets, which is evident from a softer tone around the equity markets. Apart from this, elevated US Treasury bond yields, bolstered by expectations for another supersized 75 bps hike by the Federal Reserve, lends additional support to the safe-haven greenback. That said, speculations that the Fed will soften its hawkish tone - amid signs of a slowdown in the US economy - might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Hence, investors might prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event risk - the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday. Adding to this, expectations of tight supply should limit any deeper losses for crude oil prices and further contribute to capping gains for the USD/CAD pair. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, either from the US or Canada, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for any further intraday gains.

The dollar finished last week on a negative note. The DXY index ended last Friday in the red zone for the second consecutive week, although there were no strong drivers to weaken the dollar. Moreover, very positive macro data were published last week, which could not weaken the dollar in any way. Thus, preliminary data published on Thursday showed that US GDP grew in the 3rd quarter by 2.6% (on an annualized basis). At the same time, real exports of goods and services grew by 14.4% in the 3rd quarter, while real imports fell by 6.9%. This shift improves the performance of the US foreign trade balance. Even though the price index, released also on Thursday, fell from 9.1% to 4.1% in the third quarter, consumer prices are still too high for the Federal Reserve, economists say. The core PCE price index, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose to 5.1% (year-on-year) in September from 4.9% in August. In the 3rd quarter, the underlying PCE rose by 4.9% (in annual terms). The rate of inflation (apart from the state of the labor market and GDP) is important to the Fed in setting the parameters of its monetary policy. Rising prices put pressure on the central bank to tighten its policies and raise interest rates. Published on Friday, the final release of the survey by the University of Michigan pointed to continued high consumer confidence in the US. At the same time, the US labor market continues to be strong, while the unemployment rate is at its lowest pre-pandemic levels, amounting to 3.5% (in September). By the way, the latest data from the US labor market for October will be published this Friday. Everything indicates that at the meeting, which starts tomorrow, the FOMC will continue to tighten monetary policy. Most economists expect another 75 bps rate hike. And yet, the dollar fell in the past and preceding weeks, despite the expected increase in the interest rate in November and the same in December (according to a survey conducted by Bloomberg on October 20, 2022, the market currently estimates the probability of a Fed rate hike by 75 bps in December at 88%). Economists say that the combination of high inflation, which reduces the purchasing power of the population, and an aggressive pace of monetary tightening will lead to an economic recession starting in the second quarter of 2023. To raise the interest rate further in a recession is suicidal for the economy. And, probably, strategic investors who make trading plans with long cycles are already beginning to prepare for at least a slowdown in the Fed's tightening cycle, and at most for the reverse process, i.e. to the easing of monetary policy in the United States. In the meantime, this is a matter of more or less distant prospects, the DXY dollar index maintains a positive trend. At the time of release of this article, the DXY dollar index (in the MT4 trading terminal the dollar index is reflected as CFD #USDX) is near 111.00, in the lower part of the range formed between the local support and resistance levels of 114.74 and 109.37. At the same time, the general upward dynamics of the dollar remains, pushing the DXY index towards more than 20-year highs near 120.00, 121.00. The breakdown of the local "round" resistance levels of 114.00, 115.00 will be a signal that the DXY index will return to growth. Support levels: 111.00, 110.65, 109.60, 106.90, 105.20 Resistance levels: 111.31, 112.00, 113.00, 114.00, 114.74, 115.00 Trading Recommendations Dollar Index CFD #USDX: Sell Stop 110.40. Stop Loss 111.40. Take Profit 110.00, 109.60, 106.90, 105.20 Buy Stop 111.40. Stop Loss 110.40. Take-Profit 112.00, 113.00, 114.00, 114.74, 115.00     Relevance up to 10:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/325798

Americans' Personal spending rose 0.6% in September, the same as a month earlier, while income growth was up 0.4% in each of the two months. Total earnings grew 5.2% YoY, as did earnings, whereas due to a cutback in tax credits, disposable income rose only 3.1% YoY. Spending, meanwhile, closely mirrors inflation, adding 8.2% in September compared to the same month a year earlier. Spending growth is usually a positive signal for the markets because it pulls the entire economy along. However, this growth driver is near exhaustion as savings have fallen to 3.1% of income and are near the lows since 2007. Historically, the lowest Americans saved was in 2005, when the rate fell to 2.1%, and the yearly average was 2.9%. Approaching the savings rate to the 3% threshold has cooled the housing market, as we see in our case. The low savings rate can be explained by maintaining the same living standard (spending). However, the steepest rise in credit interest rates in 40 years and a falling stock market have prompted Americans to save a historically low proportion of their income. In this environment, there is likely to be a further drop in interest in long-term purchases such as homes and cars. However, before you shout ‘’crisis!’’, you should remember that enormous sums have gone into savings during the pandemic. In the two years since March 2020, almost twice as much has been saved as in the two years before (61.4 trillion vs 32.4 trillion). In other words, Americans still have something to spend, and their debt burden is not as high as it was in 2005-2008. The fall in the savings rate close to historic lows is a red flag, and it is now worth paying increased attention to the consumption behaviour of Americans. Given the savings accumulated during the pandemic, economic growth (excluding the suffering housing sector) has a high chance of further development for the foreseeable future. If we are right, there is no reason for the Fed to change its intentions to aggressively raise rates and keep them high for an extended period.

  USD/CAD Downside Seems Over! The USD/CAD pair turned to the upside after failing to stabilize below the down channel's downside line. Now, it's almost to reach the downtrend line which represents a dynamic upside obstacle. As you already know, the 1.3744 former high stands as an upside obstacle as well. You knew that only dropping and stabilizing below 1.3503 activates a larger downside movement. As long as it stays above this level, the currency pair could come back higher. USD/CAD Trading Conclusion! Jumping and stabilizing above the downtrend line and above 1.3744 really confirm that the downside movement ended and that the price could come back higher at least towards the 1.3925 higher high. This scenario helps the buyers to jump into the market again as USD/CAD could approach and reach new highs. Relevance up to 14:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/299074

A combination of factors prompts aggressive selling around USD/CAD on Tuesday. Rising oil prices underpin the loonie and exert pressure amid a modest USD downtick. The downside seems limited amid recession fears and ahead of the FOMC meeting. The USD/CAD pair comes under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday and extends the overnight late pullback from the 1.3685 region, or a multi-day high. The downward trajectory drags spot prices to a fresh daily low, around mid-1.3500s during the early European session and is sponsored by a combination of factors. Crude oil prices regain positive traction after OPEC said that demand will be higher than initially expected in the medium to long term. This, in turn, underpins the commodity-linked loonie and exerts some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair amid the emergence of some selling around the US dollar. The global risk sentiment gets a boost following the release of Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which improved to 49.2 in October from 48.1 previous. The upbeat market mood, along with speculations that the Fed will soften its hawkish stance amid signs of a slowdown in the US economy, is seen weighing on the safe-haven greenback. Investors, however, remain concerned about the fuel demand outlook in the wake of China's strict zero-COVID policy amid the resurgence of cases in Shanghai and Wuhan. This could act as a headwind for the black liquid. Apart from this, the protracted Russia-Ukraine war might also contribute to keeping a lid on any optimism in the markets. Furthermore, expectations that the Fed will deliver another supersized 75 bps rate hike at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday should limit the downside for the buck. This, in turn, supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the USD/CAD pair and warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI later during the early North American session. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, will influence the USD. Traders will further take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities around the USD/CAD pair.

USD/CAD bounces off intraday low to pare the first daily loss in five. Bullish chart formation keeps buyers hopeful but 200-SMA adds strength to the 1.3655-60 hurdle. Bears have a bumpy road to the south unless breaking 1.3495 level. USD/CAD remains mildly offered around 1.3605 ahead of Wednesday’s European session, posting the first daily loss in five at the latest. The Loonie pair’s weakness could be linked to its retreat from the 1.3655-60 resistance confluence comprising the 200-SMA and a downward-sloping trend line from October 13. The pullback moves, however, lack acceptance amid steady RSI, which in turn challenges the pair sellers. Even so, the one-week-old ascending support line, near 1.3540 by the press time, precedes the aforementioned triangle’s bottom, near 1.3495, to welcome the USD/CAD bears. Should the quote remains weak past 1.3495, the bullish chart formation gets defied, which in turn directs the USD/CAD pair towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of September-October upside, near 1.3340. Alternatively, recovery remains elusive unless the quote stays below the 1.3655-60 resistance confluence. Following that, multiple levels around 1.3700 and 1.3850 could challenge the USD/CAD buyers before directing them to the previous monthly high near 1.3980. It should be noted that the RSI is approaching the overbought territory and can poke bulls around 1.3980, if not then the 1.4000 threshold could act as an extra filter to the north. USD/CAD: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected

Large movements may be seen in markets today after the release of Fed's decision on monetary policy. Earlier, many expressed their belief that the US central bank will make its last rate increase this month, signal an easing, then take a short pause to assess the impact of the previous rate hikes on the country's economy. If this really happens, the US stock market will bounce up, with the trend shifting from bearish to bullish. But if the opposite occurs and the Fed makes it clear that it is too early to change their view on the pace of rate hikes, another wave of sell-offs will take place, especially in the stock markets, while US Treasury yields will rise. In short, the Fed meeting ahead is a key in the reversal of markets, though a lot will depend if the US economy is entering a recession or not. Another factor is the quarterly reports of companies. As for dollar, the change in the Fed's policy will put pressure on it, possibly causing noticeable changes. The behavior of Treasury yields will also affect USD, in which a decline will lead to a price decrease. If there are no changes, dollar will climb further, while gold prices may update recent lows. So far, a change in the Fed's policy is highly likely since members have recently stated their support on the slowdown of rate hikes. The stabilization of consumer inflation may also convince the central bank to resort to this option. Forecasts for today: EUR/USD A change in the Fed's policy could push the pair above 0.9900, to 1.0050 and then to 1.0150. USD/CAD The weakening of dollar and increase in oil prices could bring the pair down to 1.3500 after falling below 1.3570.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-11-04 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/326010

USD/CAD retreats from seven-day high, prints the first daily loss in six. Convergence of previous resistance, 200-SMA challenges sellers amid upbeat RSI conditions. Multiple hurdles to test bulls before the yearly top. USD/CAD seesaws around the intraday low as it pares the first weekly gain in three heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair makes rounds to 1.3700, after flashing the day’s low of 1.3682. Even so, the quote defends the previous day’s upside break of a downward-sloping resistance line from October 13, now supporting around 1.3670. Also increasing the strength of the 1.3670-65 area is the 200-SMA. It’s worth noting that the firmer RSI (14) and a successful break of the previous key resistances keep the USD/CAD buyers hopeful of reaching the yearly top surrounding 1.3980. However, multiple hurdles near 1.3750 and 1.3830 could test the upward trajectory. In a case where the Loonie pair remains firmer past 1.3980, the 1.4000 psychological manget may act as an extra check for the bulls before directing them to the May 2020 high near 1.4175. Meanwhile, a downside break of the resistance-turned-support confluence near 1.3670-65 isn’t an open welcome to the USD/CAD bears as a weekly ascending trend line, close to 1.3550, offers an additional filter to probe the declines. Additionally challenging the pair’s south run is the horizontal support including multiple lows marked since early October, near 1.3500. USD/CAD: Four-hour chart Trend: Bullish

The dollar is higher after the Fed raised rates 75bp again yesterday. Chair Jerome Powell is trying to switch attention away from the pace of rate hikes to the terminal rate, which he said will likely be higher than what the Fed had estimated in September. Expect the dollar to hold gains - especially versus GBP were the BoE to surprise with just a 50bp hike USD: Higher rates for longer As we discussed in yesterday's Fed reaction piece, the dollar initially sold off on the FOMC statement, but then rallied on what was overall a hawkish press conference. When the dust had settled, the US money market curve had bear-steepened - e.g. 1m USD OIS rates priced six months forward were 6bps higher, but priced 12 months forward were 12bps higher. There were many ways to read the press conference, but one interpretation is that Chair Powell was trying to shift the narrative away from how fast the Fed would be hiking towards how high the terminal rate would have to go and how long it would have to stay there. The press conference also concluded with a sense of frustration from Chair Powell that inflation had not fallen more quickly - and he certainly did not provide any encouragement to those in the market looking for an early fall in rents (a key component of core inflation). With the focus now switching to the terminal rate, Chair Powell has guided expectations that it will be higher than the 4.50-4.75% area the Fed had estimated back in September. That could prepare us for another bullish dollar event risk with the release of the next set of projections on 14 December - assuming neither employment nor core inflation sags quickly.  Expect Fed policy to prove a bullish undercurrent to the dollar and an even more inverted US yield curve to weigh in particular on the high beta activity and commodity currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, Norway's krone and Sweden's krona. Where there could be some joy for those a little more bearish on the dollar is amongst high-yielding Latam FX - especially the Mexican peso. Some have made the good point that the slower pace of Fed hikes could reduce volatility in the interest rate markets. Indeed, the MOVE index - a basket of US Treasury implied volatility across maturity buckets - edged lower yesterday. FX volatility typically takes its cue from the interest rate markets. Lower FX volatility will increase risk-adjusted returns, where we think the 11.1% MXN implied yields available through the three-month forward look attractive and could drive USD/MXN to 19.45/50 during brief periods of calm. For today's US session, the focus will be as usual on the weekly jobless claims data. We also have ISM services and the September trade balance. The US monthly trade deficit has narrowed in from $107bn to $67bn this year, no doubt helped by rising US energy exports. Another dollar positive. We favour a flat to higher DXY today (perhaps to 112.50) as the market consolidates ahead of tomorrow's monthly US jobs release. Chris Turner EUR: Dollar hedging costs are 3% again The jump in US short-dated rates has widened the two-year differential between EUR and USD swap rates back to 210bp again - not far from the widest levels of the year. Equally, the shorter-dated yields now indicate that it will cost euro-based companies around 3% per annum to hedge the dollar using rolling three-month forwards - that is expensive. EUR/USD is gradually sinking back towards 0.98 and we feel momentum could easily build for a push to 0.9650 tomorrow if US jobs and wage data do not slow as much as expected. In Europe today, there are a lot of European Central Bank speakers, where the doves are trying to get the message across that the forthcoming recession will do some of the work in taking inflation off its highs. EUR/USD could trade in a 0.9760-0.9850 range today. Chris Turner The Bank of England (BoE) will not be the only European central bank announcing policy today, as Norway’s Norges Bank (NB) is also due to deliver another hike. We note that consensus is split between a 25bp and a 50bp move today: we expect a half point hike, as the September CPI upside surprise (6.9% year-on-year) may have overshadowed concerns about slowing economic activity. We think this can offer some extra help to the krone, which is already benefiting from oil’s good performance and the support from Norges Bank’s reduced daily FX purchases (from NOK 4.3bn to 3.7bn) for November. EUR/NOK may break below 10.20 in the near term, but we suspect that a worsening of risk sentiment conditions into year-end may limit further NOK appreciation. Francesco Pesole GBP: Scope for a 50bp BoE surprise today My colleague James Smith is making the 'courageous' call that the Bank of England will only hike 50bp today. His argument is that the consensus 75bp hike would end up seeing UK CPI undershooting the BoE's 2% target in 2025. In other words, the BoE does not need to increase the pace of tightening right now. As we discuss in that BoE preview, the FX options market attaches a 150 pip GBP/USD range to today's event risk. That could see GBP/USD trading back to the 1.1250 area if we are right with our BoE call. EUR/GBP could trade back to 0.87 too. Sterling also looks challenged from both: i) the international investment environment where US equities sold off 2.5% yesterday on the prospect of higher for longer Fed rates and ii) what is shaping up to be quite a tight fiscal event in the UK on 17 November as the new government struggles to plug its borrowing gap.  Chris Turner  CEE: No change in Czech National Bank approach The highlight of this week's calendar is today's Czech National Bank (CNB) meeting. We expect interest rates to remain unchanged, in line with market expectations. Thus, the key will be the new central bank forecast, which we believe will show lower inflation but also higher wage growth. Also key for the market will be the interest rate forecast, or any indication of the timing of the first rate cut next year and the long-term level. However, the main focus will be on FX intervention, with which the CNB has been defending the koruna since mid-May. However, in our view, the current central bank approach will only be confirmed, and we do not expect any changes.   On the FX market, we see the koruna underperforming the Polish zloty in recent days, which can be attributed to the building of short positions ahead of the CNB meeting. We can expect this trend to continue until the central bank's decision up to 24.60-70 EUR/CZK as a bet on the end of the intervention regime. But after the press conference, we can expect the liquidation of those positions and the return of the koruna to stronger levels. However, we believe that this effect will be smaller compared to the September meeting given the greater clarity that the CNB will not change its intervention regime.  Elsewhere in the region, given the empty calendar, it will be purely about the fallout from yesterday's Fed meeting and as expected, the picture is clearly negative for Central and Eastern European FX. EUR/USD is heading lower while rising core rates are pushing interest rate differentials lower across the region. Thus, we expect the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint to open with losses today.  Frantisek Taborsky  Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The Federal Reserve has delivered the fourth super-size 75bp hike in a row, but signaled more modest moves are in store for December onwards. Nonetheless, there is certainly more work to be done with a possibly higher "terminal" interest rate. Recession risks are rising, but that is the price the Fed is prepared to pay to get inflation under control Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve 375bp Cumulative interest rate increases in 2022   Fed goes 75bp, but hints at slower hikes ahead No surprise from the Federal Reserve in that we have a fourth 75bp interest rate increase in a row, bringing the cumulative policy tightening to 375bp since March and the Fed funds target range up to 3.75-4%, in what was a unanimous decision. However, there are some major changes to the statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference that suggest we will see a “step down” in the size of rate hikes in the future, but a possibly "higher" end point for interest rates. The Fed continues to “anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate”, adding that hikes will continue until they achieve a “stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time”. But there is an important a caveat in that “the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.” This suggests that they’ve done a lot of work already and it may be time to take things a little slower. This is a key shift that had been signaled by Fed Governor Chris Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly in October, the latter who has suggested back then that the Fed is "thinking about a step down [in the pace of hikes], but we’re not there yet". That said, it is important to emphasise this does not mean rate hikes are going to stop soon. Chair Powell in the press conference highlighted an important distinction between the pace of rate hikes and what will be the ultimate, or terminal, rate level. Indeed, he commented that the Fed doesn't want to fail to tighten enough and loosen too soon. The current rate hike cycle vs. previous cycles – the orange circle marks where we currently are Source: Macrobond, ING Market scales back hikes, but extends duration Right now, financial markets seem to be thinking the Fed is indeed signaling the prospect of slower paced hikes AND a slightly lower terminal rate. Futures markets are pricing in around 120bp of additional Federal Reserve interest rate increases from here, having been pricing 125bp immediately ahead of the decision. About 57bp is priced for mid-December, 38bp priced for early February 2023 and 18bp priced for the March 22nd FOMC meeting with 8bp for May. We are currently favouring 50bp in December and 50bp in February and calling that the top. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly admitted, monetary policy works with “long and varied lags” and after having hiked rates 375bp, it make sense to hike a little less aggressively. Certainly, the speed with which Treasury yields, mortgage rates and other borrowing costs have been rising in the economy is causing some economic stress, most notably in the housing market, and recession fears are undoubtedly spreading. Inflation remains key and the Fed has two bites of the cherry Nonetheless, the Fed would clearly like to see some evidence that price pressures are starting to moderate. The core (ex food and energy) CPI and core PCE deflator continue to show prices rising 0.5% or 0.6% month-on-month, whereas we need to see numbers closer to 0.1%/0.2% to get annual inflation down to 2% over time. That said, we have got two bites of the cherry with two inflation prints scheduled ahead of the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting – October CPI next Thursday and the November CPI report on December 13th. If we can get a 0.3% or a 0.4% month-on-month for the core CPI in one of those, coupled with further signs a broadening slowdown and easing pipeline price pressures, that would give the Fed the green light to go for a 50bp move. We anticipate a final 50bp for February, but by the time of the March FOMC meeting we are predicting the US to have entered recession with slowing rents, falling used car prices and rapidly receding corporate pricing power contributing to far more convincing signs that inflation is moderating. Market rates still deliberating whether to fall from here. Essentially they shouldn't The Fed has caved to the “pivot camp. A very smart use of phraseology. But the messaging is clear – something different is probably coming from the December meeting. The danger the Fed runs here is a significant fall in market rates. So far the terminal rate at 5% is holding in. But there is open season now for that to be pulled down. This telegraphing from the Fed could reflect worries beyond recessionary ones. We’ve noted before that USD commercial paper prints have become far more concessional of late, with European banks printing in excess of 50bp in the 3mth. While there is no imminent threat of a system break, even the build in the risk could be enough to sway the Fed. It may also be less complex than that. It could also be a preparatory glide path that ultimately guides us to a terminal rate at 5%. If that’s the case, then 10yr still has no business making a structural break below 4% this early. But the risk is as stated, that the door is open now for a lower terminal rate, and if so, a material easing in financial conditions in anticipation of that. The model for the 10yr at this stage of the cycle remains; we still see the 10yr peaking at 25-50bp through the fed funds terminal rate, and we need to see that terminal rate level before the 10yr actual knows with conviction that it is a peak. That’s the argument for market rates not getting too carried away with this, and understanding that we are still in a rate hiking process, with the terminal rate still much higher than where we are now. The main outcome has been a rise in inflation expectations following this aggregate FOMC outcome, and the only rationale for this is from the verbal commentary. Based off this, the market views this, at the margin, as presenting upside risks to inflation. Real rates are lower, which gels with risk assets outperforming as a reaction. Overall this represents a loosening in financial conditions coming from market moves alone. It’s not been dramatic so far, and whether these moves become material enough to wipe out the value of the 75bp hike delivered today will depend on the degree of follow-through in the coming days and weeks. FX Markets: Down and Up The FX markets initially reacted to the FOMC statement by selling the dollar. The insertion into the statement of the need to take cumulative tightening into account recalled events in Europe last week. Last Thursday the market took 30bp off the ECB cycle and sold the euro on news that the ECB had seen ‘substantial progress had been made in withdrawing monetary accommodation’. Today’s FOMC statement briefly took 8bp off the Fed cycle and saw the dollar sell off 0.5-1.0%. But markets read the press conference more hawkishly. Particularly comments from Fed Chair Powell that he expected the Fed terminal rate to be higher than the Fed expected back in September. Those September Dot Plots saw the policy rate ending 2023 in the 4.50-4.75% area. News that the terminal rate could be higher tended to trump the discussion of the pace of hikes – and Chair Powell certainly wanted to shift the narrative to the terminal rate from the pace. As we conclude writing this short update, pricing of the Fed cycle is now higher than it was shortly before the FOMC statement. Equally the dollar has retraced its intra-day losses. Where does that leave us? Expectations of the policy rate being taken to 5% into early next year, inverting the yield curve still further, is a dollar positive. As always, markets will be highly sensitive to incoming US data and based on today’s press conference it does seem that the bar is set very high for the market to start pricing a substantially lower terminal rate. We think the balance of risks still favour a stronger dollar, particularly against European currencies where our macro team see growth substantially below consensus over coming quarters. In practice, this means EUR/USD can still make a run towards 0.95 over coming months and USD/JPY can still retest 150. Where interest in the carry trade could emerge is in Latin America. Here the risk-adjusted implied yields of the Mexican peso are 50% above those for the Brazilian real and USD/MXN could retest the lows of the year at 19.42 should any key US data disappoint. Read this article on THINK TagsUSD US Interest rates FOMC Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Despite falling energy prices and weakening demand, a swift drop in core inflation in the eurozone doesn't seem imminent. Business surveys indicate that selling price expectations to consumers remain near all-time highs A swift drop in core inflation in the eurozone doesn't look likely Business inflation expectations still predominantly driven by energy costs Looking at inflation expectations has become key in this day and age. All the more so now that European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel explained at Jackson Hole that incoming inflation expectations data are an important input in policymaking as medium-term inflation expectations are harder to forecast right now. So let’s look at recent developments. Since April, we have seen the number of businesses expecting to raise prices in the months ahead decline steadily. But they ticked up again in September according to the economic sentiment survey by the European Commission. What has driven the move? When looking at the development of selling price expectations by sectors since April, we find a strong correlation with the energy-intensiveness of production. Clearly, energy prices continue to be the key driver in determining whether prices need to go up or not. At the same time though, we do notice that the August price peak has not resulted in a similar jump in selling price expectations that we saw in March. This suggests that weakening demand is starting to have an impact on whether businesses are comfortable pricing through to their consumers. The drop in selling price expectations correlates with energy intensity of production Energy intensity of production is based on Eurostat input-output tables for 2019 Source: Eurostat, ING Research Selling price expectations remain high for businesses selling straight to the consumer The fact that the peak in selling price expectations seems to be behind us gives the impression that some moderation in core inflation could be around the corner. The question is how fast this will actually start to have an effect. The problem with these business indicators for inflation expectations is that it lumps together companies selling directly to consumers and businesses further down the supply chain, like base metals for example. To distinguish between sectors fueling pipeline inflation and those directly selling to consumers, we look at the final consumption expenditure by households from different sectors. While those sectors in most cases also sell wholesale, it at least gives an indication of whether consumer prices are currently being raised. We lump the ten sectors that sell most to consumers together to create a view of the selling price expectations among businesses selling to consumers. We also average the indicator for the 20 sectors selling to consumers least, which we count as the pipeline selling price expectations. It still seems too early to call the peak in core inflation While we see little difference between the two in selling price expectations historically, they have diverged much more in recent months. The decline in selling price expectations has been much stronger with pipeline sectors. The drop for businesses selling straight to consumers has been far smaller so far. What this tells us is that a quick drop in core inflation is not imminent despite energy price declines and weaker demand. Businesses are still trying to price through a lot of the earlier jumps in energy costs for the moment. This means that despite encouraging signs around prices, with energy costs dropping and weakening demand, it still seems too early to call the peak in core inflation. Selling price expectations have fallen much more for B2B than B2C Source: Eurostat, European Commission DCECFIN, ING Research   We have made the distinction between B2B (business-to-business) and B2C (business-to-consumer) sectors based on final consumption expenditure by household per sector using Eurostat input-output tables for 2019. The direct sales to households category includes those sectors having the highest volumes of final consumption expenditure by households, excluding real estate. The pipeline sectors category includes those with the smallest volumes of final consumption expenditure by households. We included the following sectors in the “direct sales to households” category: retail, food products, motor vehicles, wearing apparel, furniture, land transport and transport via pipelines, telecommunications, travel agency and related activities and computer, electronic and optical products. We included the following sectors in the “pipeline sectors” category: basic metals, repair & installation of machinery & equipment, wood & wood products excluding furniture, machinery & equipment N.E.C., other non-metallic mineral products, fabricated metal products, paper & paper products, rubber & plastic products, electrical equipment, warehousing & support activities for transportation, rental & leasing activities, security & investigation activities, other professionals, scientific & technical activities, other transport equipment, water transport, architectural & engineering activities, postal & courier activities, printing & reproduction of recorded media, computer programming, consultancy & related activities, employment activities, and advertising & market research. Read this article on THINK TagsInflation Eurozone Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

USDCAD finds strong support The US dollar recovered after the Fed cautioned that rates could go higher than expectations. The rally has come to a halt in May 2020’s consolidation area. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling has weighed on short-term sentiment. A tentative break below the daily support 1.3500 has put the bulls under pressure. A bearish breakout would force them to bail out and trigger a deeper correction below 1.3300. 1.3750 is the first resistance and the bulls will need to clear 1.3850 before the uptrend could resume. XAUUSD hits resistance Gold softened after the US dollar regained strength post-FOMC. After the price gave up all the gains from its rally in early October, the latest rebound met stiff selling pressure near the support-turned-resistance 1670. A long bearish wick suggests a rejection of this level. As wrong-footed traders scramble for the exit, 1618 is key in keeping the precious metal afloat. Its break would signal a bearish continuation in the days to come. 1645 is a fresh obstacle where the bears could be looking to double down on the prevailing pessimism. UK 100 struggles for support Equities turned south after the Fed sees a pause in tightening as premature. The FTSE reversed its course at a former support (7200) on the daily chart. The recent rally could use some breathing room after it broke above the daily resistance at 7100. After the RSI swung back into oversold territory, 7080 is the first level to gauge the strength of follow-up interests. The psychological level of 7000 would be an important support to keep the bulls interested. 7200 is a fresh peak and a bullish breakout would carry the index to 7330.

Yesterday we saw the long-awaited decision by the US Federal Reserve on interest rates. The range for the federal funds rate was raised by 75 bps to 3.75-4.00 percent, in line with market expectations. US interest rates are presently at their highest level since 2008. How did the dollar exchange rate react to the decision? The dollar and the interest rate hike The U.S. currency, as well as related markets, including gold or silver, but also U.S. stock indexes, seemed to react to the Fed's decision with increased volatility. At first, the U.S. dollar lost value, only to make up the losses during Jerome Powell's press conference. This could have had to do with the fact that Powell dashed the market's hopes for a quick end to the interest rate hike cycle, which he made clear during the conference. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stressed on Wednesday that it is very premature to think about halting interest rate hikes. Powell also added that "no one knows whether there will be a recession, and if so, how dangerous it will be." The road to a soft landing has narrowed, but it is still possible. Powell stressed that spending growth has slowed and the labor market situation is still good. Inflation is well above the Fed's target, and recent inflation data have been above expectations, but long-term inflation expectations remain "well-anchored" - The Fed chairman noted in statements quoted by the BBN service. Reaction of the dollar exchange rate after the Fed decision Source: Conotoxia MT5, EUR/USD, H1 The EUR/USD pair's exchange rate approached parity shortly after the decision, only to fall towards 0.9800 at the end. This could be related to the still high expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Fed. On the morning of November 3, federal funds rate futures indicated that a 50bp hike could occur in December. In February 2023, the market expects another 50 bp hike and only in March 2023, after the last hike from 25 bp, is the end of the cycle expected. The market today is pricing the end of the cycle at 5.00-5.25 percent, and only next December could see a 25bp rate cut in the U.S. to 4.75-5.00 percent, according to futures and CME exchange data. Stock markets with a bump after the Fed The Nasdaq fell 3.4 percent yesterday, the S&P 500 fell 2.1 percent, and the Dow Jones fell more than 1.5 percent. Higher interest rates, typically also mean higher interest rates on bonds and the U.S. dollar, instruments with potentially little investment risk. The higher the interest rates and the lower the risk, capital could turn away from riskier assets until they are attractively priced relative to the risk-free rate. Hence, Wall Street may continue to be under pressure until companies' earnings prospects improve or their prices become more attractive relative to interest rates.  Nevertheless, interesting companies may emerge in such an environment. One of them may be Boeing, which stands out in the Dow Jones index. The company's share price has risen 6 percent in the past week, and is up 16 percent in a month. The company reported yesterday that it could generate free cash flow of $3 billion to $5 billion in 2023, and $10 billion by the middle of the decade, as it believes it would be able to outsource the delivery of the last of its 737 and 787 aircraft to airlines, its CEO David Calhoun said on Wednesday, as quoted by BBN news service. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Boeing, Weekly Did you know that CFDs allow you to trade on both falling and rising prices? Derivatives allow you to open buy and sell positions, and thus invest on rising as well as falling quotes. At Conotoxia, you can choose from CFDs on more than 100 currency pairs. Wanting to find a CFD on USD/PLN, for example, you just need to follow 4 simple steps: To access Trading Universe - a state-of-the-art center of financial, information, investment and social products and services with a single Smart account, register here. Click "Platforms" in the "Invest&Forex" section. Choose one of the accounts: demo or live On the MT5 or cTrader platform, search for the CFD currency pair you are looking for and drag it to the chart window. Use the one-click trading option or open a new order with the right mouse button. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Read more reviews and open a demo account at invest.conotoxia.com Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In recent months the Fed has repeatedly taken a more hawkish stance than the markets expect. However, the markets' preparation for yesterday's meeting and the signal we read in the official commentary were too strikingly different from the markets' interpretation of the press conference. Initially, buyers were encouraged by words that the Fed would consider the time lag between the decision and its impact on financial markets in its future meetings. This innovation in the commentary was taken as a hint of a slower pace in further rate hikes and was the signal buyers had been waiting for.   As a result, the S&P500 jumped 1.4% in the half-hour between the decision's release and the press conference. But that jump only amplified the decline. From the peak to date, the Nasdaq100 has lost 5%, the S&P500 has lost over 4%, and the Dollar Index has added 2.5%. During the press conference, the markets, in our view, reacted quite nervously to Powell's words that it is not yet a time to consider a pause in a rate hike. The markets had not expected one, underlying the base case scenario of a 50-point hike in December and two 25-point hikes in January and March next year.   Also striking is the phrase that, finally, rates will come to a higher level than previously expected by the committee. In our opinion, there should not be a significant rate hike since the market has priced at a peak rate of 5% compared to 4.5% at the last meeting.    Furthermore, comments that a smaller move has already been discussed at the recent meeting have gone underappreciated.   Outside of the stock and currency market, there was also a much calmer movement. The VIX index rose modestly, remaining in a downtrend for more than three weeks. Cryptocurrencies have generally ignored events, and the rate futures market is marking a 48% chance of a fifth rate hike of 75 points in December compared to 50% at the start of the week.   Either way, the market has broken the uptrend in the S&P500 since late September and the downtrend in the dollar index. Strictly speaking, this signals the end of the bear market rally and the start of momentum towards new extremes. However, it cannot be ruled out that someone from the Fed will start to point out that the market has not quite got the chairman's words right in the coming days.

The US labor market has taken a bit of a back seat as the Fed focuses everything on getting inflation down. But, that might be about to change. There are some signs that traders need to be aware of for when the Fed might suddenly return to worrying about its second mandate. This is particularly relevant in the context where there is increasing speculation around when the Fed will start slowing its rate hikes.   As inflation was rising, the concern was that a price-wage spiral would develop. But for over a year now, wages have not even kept up with inflation, let alone pushing it forward. As higher interest rates bite, and more and more companies report that they will slow hiring, the next concern is when will the labor market flip. That is, more people seeking work than there are jobs for them.   Looking into the details The latest BLS survey shows that there were 10.7M job openings in September. But there were only 6.1M seeking work. Despite there being over 4.6M jobs than there are jobseekers, there still hasn't been a major increase in average wages. But, over the last couple of months, that gap has started to close. The ratio, on the other hand, has not, with the number of jobseekers to offers matching multi-decade lows. This reflects a trend where the number of job offers has been falling, and so has the number of people looking for work. One of the assumptions over the last few months has been that as inflation rises, more people would be prompted to seek work. But the participation rate has remained stubbornly just above 62%, and is forecast to remain there in the latest data release. As long as the number of job openings remains above the number of unemployed, and the participation rate remains low, the jobs market is likely to remain off the Fed's radar. What to look out for Before the pandemic started, an NFP number of around 200K job adds was considered normal, and would be expected to keep the Fed happy. This time around, NFP are forecast to come in at 200K, down from 288K as last reported. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 3.6% from 3.5%, which could give some people deja vu from 2019. But a deeper dive into the figures shows some worrying signs. The ADP jobs survey was released yesterday, and is still not considered predictive of NFP despite the new methodology. However, it does prove some interesting understanding of the jobs market, and what we might see in some of this month's NFP components. The bottom line ADP showed that the bulk of job creation was in the leisure and hospitality sectors, which is to be expected in the middle of summer. However, those jobs tend to be lower paid, and that likely contributes to the expected slowing growth in average hourly wages. That was also reflected in BLS data, showing that job openings increased in accommodation and food services, but declined in manufacturing. In other words, the jobs market continues to be tight in the areas of lower skilled, lower pay. But people who wish to switch to higher paying jobs are starting to struggle. That doesn't mean the labor market is loose, but it could be soon.

S&P 500 was indeed sluggish into the FOMC only to welcome the statement – and then the presser came, with acentuated hawkishness that did sink not only stocks, but also bonds and real assets. The encouraging reprieve on the long end of the curve is giving way to further flattening, which only serves to highlight tight money circumstances. In such an environment, the dollar thrives, and another risk-off day is what we‘re on the doorstep of. The encouraging dialing back of Dec rate hike to only 50bp (assigned 57% probability right after the statement), looks history as bond traders are forcing higher yields across the board today. On one hand, the impact of rate hikes seems to be generating less fear (selling) since the Jackson Hole and Sep FOMC, on the other hand, it invalidates prior constructive moves in bonds, where especially the long-dated ones look to have bottomed in October. It‘s at least reasonable stability if not a modest upswing (or a more decent one in recognition of slowing economy, which isn‘t yet slowing down fast enough to force yields down on this account) that stocks need for a sustainable Q4 rally – rally that should still continue, and reach my 3,950 year end target. Volatility and options activity isn‘t though painting a bullish daily picture in the least – bonds are again doing the tightening for the Fed, and it shows in commodities, precious metals and finally cryptos as well. Relatively resilient is of course only oil, and perhaps copper can show limited bouts of relative strength here and there too. When it comes to daily S&P 500 levels, the bulls want to hold 3,710s, and see any rebound attempts accompanied by risk-on turns in bonds, and I‘m looking more towards TLT today. Overcoming 3,780 seems a pipe dream. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features two.

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rose to the 112.80 mark on Thursday before finding resistance and turning lower. The index is seen to be trading close to 112.25 levels at this point in writing as bears might prepare to come back in control. A high probability remains for a fall to 107.00 levels before the index could find some support again. The US dollar index is facing immediate resistance at 113.65, followed by 114.67 while support is seen around 107.40, followed by 104.30 respectively. Furthermore, the price is pulling back after hitting the back side of the past support trend line, which should act as strong resistance going forward. The immediate bearish boundary, which is being worked upon is between 112.80 and 109.00 respectively. Quotes are seen to reverse from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the above around 112.80 levels. A break below 110.00 will confirm that the price is heading further south towards 107.00 at least. Only a consistent break above 113.65 could nullify the above structure. Trading plan: Potential drop towards 107.00 against 113.65 Good luck!       Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/299669

USDCAD takes offers to refresh intraday low, snapping six-day uptrend. Cautious optimism in the market joins firmer oil prices, US dollar pullback to tease pair sellers. Fed versus BOC play can keep bulls hopeful even if the US jobs report fail to impress DXY buyers. USDCAD cheers the broad US dollar pullback, as well as a mildly positive market mood, as it prints the first intraday loss in seven. That said, the Loonie pair takes offers to refresh the daily low near 1.3680 during early Friday morning in Europe. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from a fortnight high to pare the biggest weekly gain in seven, refreshing intraday low around 112.60 by the press time. The greenback’s latest losses could be linked to the hopes of witnessing positive news surrounding the Russia-Ukraine tussles as leaders from Germany and China meet. Also, the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) efforts to defend the Chinese Yuan (CNY) join the pre-data consolidation to add strength to the risk-on mood. It should be noted that the firmer prices of the Crude Oil, Canada’s main export item, also weigh on the USDCAD of late. WTI crude oil rises 1.25% intraday to $88.45 at the latest. Alternatively, the hawkish plays of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) contrast with the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) easy rate hike to favor buyers. Also, strong yields and fears of an economic slowdown are extra catalysts keeping the USDCAD bulls hopeful. Amid these plays, the US stock futures print mild gains and the yields remain firmer whereas the Asia-Pacific equities print notable gains led by China. Moving on, the employment data from the US and Canada will be crucial for the USDCAD pair traders to watch and might help the recent sellers to keep the reins amid downbeat market consensus for the US numbers. Forecasts suggest that the headline US NFP could ease to 200K in October from 263K prior while the US Unemployment Rate may increase to 3.6% from 3.5% prior. On the other hand, Canada’s Net Change in Employment may also ease to 10K versus 21.1K prior with the Unemployment Rate likely witnessing an uptick to 5.3% from 5.2% prior. Even so, the Fed versus the BOC game is in the favor of the USDCAD bulls and hence any pullback could be considered non-lucrative for sellers. Technical analysis USDCAD retreats from a six-week-old horizontal resistance, around 1.3825-10, but the downside remains elusive unless the quote stays beyond a convergence of the 50-DMA and lows marked since late October, close to 1.3500.

Investors got the policy pivot they were looking for this week; unfortunately, not from the Federal Reserve (Fed), but from the Bank of England (BoE) instead. Bank of England In a confusing way, the Bank of England raised its interest rate by 75bp yesterday, but announced that the city analysts have got the BoE’s terminal rate wrong, and that the future rate hikes from the BoE will be softer, given that the economic situation is alarming. Sterling dived, while gilt yields were steady to lower. Mareket Reaction Elsewhere, in an extended market reaction to Wednesday’s Fed decision, the US dollar gained across the board, as investors repositioned for a more aggressive Fed tightening. Fed The thing that could throw cold water on burning hot Fed expectations is soft jobs data from the US. That’s also the only thing that could save the rest of the world from the worsening Fed aggression: rapidly deteriorating economic conditions in the US. Due today, the NFP is expected to reveal 200’000 new nonfarm jobs in October, for an average hourly pay rise steady around 0.3%. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:26 Confusing action & statement from the BoE 2:39 The dollar rally continues post-Fed, pre-US jobs 5:20 Stock selloff intensifies 7:10 Only ugly US data could reverse sentiment 8:22 Stoxx600’s 30% discount to S&P hides risk Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #NFP #jobs #wages #data #Fed #hawks #UK #BoE #GBP #dovish #hike #Netflix #Disney #BasicWithAd #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Canadian employment details overview Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish the monthly employment report for October later this Friday at 12:30 GMT. The Canadian economy is anticipated to have added 10K jobs during the reported month, down from the 21.1K rise reported in September. The unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 5.2% to 5.3% in October. According to analysts at NBF: “Recent economic indicators point to a slowdown in growth in Canada, a phenomenon that could be reflected in employment data. Layoffs may well have remained low during the month, but we believe this could have been offset by a slowdown in hiring amid declining small business confidence. Our call is for a 5K increase. Despite this gain, the unemployment rate may increase from 5.2% to 5.4%, assuming the participation rate rose one tick to 64.8% and the working-age population grew at a strong pace.” How could the data affect USDCAD? The data is more likely to be overshadowed by the simultaneous release of the closely-watched US jobs report - popularly known as NFP. That said, a significant divergence from the expected readings should influence the Canadian dollar and provide some meaningful impetus to the USDCAD pair. In the meantime, a sharp intraday rise in crude oil prices, to a nearly one-month high, underpins the commodity-linked Loonie. This, along with a modest US Dollar pullback from a two-week high touched on Thursday, is seen exerting heavy downward pressure on the major. Strong domestic data should provide an additional lift to the Canadian dollar and pave the way for a further intraday depreciating move for the USDCAD pair. Spot prices might then turn vulnerable to weaken further below the 1.3600 mark and aim back to test the 1.3500 psychological mark, which now coincides with the 50-day SMA. Conversely, any disappointment from the Canadian jobs data and (or) upbeat US NFP report should assist the USDCAD pair to attract fresh buying. Any attempted recovery, however, might confront some resistance near the 1.3675-1.3680 region. This is closely followed by the 1.3700 round figure and the next relevant hurdle near the 1.3735-1.3740 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter will negate any near-term negative bias and allow spot prices to aim back to conquer the 1.3800 mark. Key Notes   •  Canadian October Jobs Preview: Labor market upturn in the doldrums   •  Canadian Jobs Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, quite tepid jobs gain in October   •  USDCAD remains heavily offered below mid-1.3600s ahead of US/Canadian jobs data About the Employment Change The employment Change released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the CAD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish. About the Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics Canada is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Canadian economy. Normally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while an increase is seen as negative or bearish.    

The Fed delivered a hawkish pivot this week, and the Bank of England a dovish 75bp hike. Barring a clearer decoupling between the Fed and other central banks, today’s US job report and next week’s CPI will be key. Even if both ease, we expect rates to keep rising, and curves to steepen, on supply The Fed takes with one hand and takes with the other Viewed from abroad, the Fed’s balanced message didn’t come across as a hint of less hawkish days to come. The Fed has come to be viewed as one of the main reasons other central banks accelerated their hikes to 50bp or even 75bp increments. Even in case of a slowdown in Fed hikes to 50bp in December, the main risk for markets is now that this hiking cycle stretches well into 2023, and so forces the hand of the Fed’s foreign peers. With a pause in hiking cycles being pushed farther over the horizon, we expect appetite to own duration to remain limited into year-end, save for investors with very long investment horizons. Supply still tips the scales in favour of higher rates Having made the case that Fed policy is so central to the fate of foreign fixed income markets, it is clear that today’s US employment report (non-farms payroll), and next week’s CPI will also play a role. As it happens, consensus is for a cooling of both, so markets can in theory look forward to more stable performance in bonds next week. However, this being one of the last weeks in which bond issuers can practically conclude their 2022 funding plan, or pre-fund for 2023, supply still tips the scales in favour of higher rates in our view. Even if we’re wrong, the US Treasury is due to sell 10Y and 30Y notes/bonds next week, so the odds are that any post-NFP spike will be sold into. A more hawkish Fed is pressuring foreign rates ever higher Source: Refinitiv, ING The BoE actually managed to deliver a dovish message, and markets listened Given the strength of the dovish message that accompanied the BoE’s 75bp hike yesterday, many were left wondering why it didn’t only hike 50bp. In a sense, most of the Bank’s pushback concerned the amount of hikes priced by the curve for subsequent meetings, but the hawkish justifications for accelerating its hiking pace were conspicuously missing. GBP front-end rates did close the day higher, but given the Fed’s hawkish message, and sell-off at the front-end of the EUR and USD curve, we conclude that at least some of the BoE’s dovish message has been heard. This was far from a foregone conclusion, markets have had a well-defined tendency to ignore BoE dovish soundbites at recent meetings. The long-end remains the sector most likely to come unmoored in case of a pick-up in volatility What was more interesting is the underperformance of long-end gilts. That the curve steepens on a dovish message is not altogether surprising but we get the feeling that the long-end remains the sector most likely to come unmoored in case of a pick-up in volatility. Perhaps this is also a reflection of the fact that the shortage of collateral and short-dated gilts is preventing the front-end from participating fully in any sell-off. In any case, we think curve steepening remains the path of least resistance, especially if the BoE joins in on the dovish pivot operated by other central banks globally, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Norges Bank, and likely the European Central Bank soon. EUR and USD curves should follow their GBP peer into steepening next week Source: Refinitiv, ING Today's events and market view Various measures of eurozone member state industrial production figures are released this morning, alongside services PMIs. Eurozone PPI is expected to decline slightly from dizzily high levels. Central bank speakers will be omnipresent, once again. From the ECB, Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, and Luis de Guindos will be making the headlines. Huw Pill’s take on yesterday’s BoE decision will also be closely watched. In spite of all the interesting central bank comments we’re sure to receive, the most market-moving event will probably be the US job report. Job creation is expected to revert to its long-term average around 200k. An uptick in unemployment and downtick in hourly earnings could take the edge off Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments earlier this week, but a resumption of supply next week tilts the odds in favour of higher rates still, especially at the long-end. Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The Canadian dollar is usually quiet before North American markets open, but it is sharply higher today. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3644 in Europe, down 0.73%. US nonfarm payrolls expected to slow The week wraps up with the October employment reports from the US and Canada. The highlight will be the US nonfarm payrolls report, which, although still a key event, has been somewhat overshadowed by Fed rate meetings and inflation releases. Still, the release will be carefully watched by Fed policymakers and it will be a factor in the December rate decision. The October consensus stands at 200,000, lower than the September reading of 263,000. With the markets split 50/50 on whether the Fed will raise rates by 0.50% or 0.75%, the NFP release could provide some volatility in the currency markets in the North American session. A stronger-than-expected reading would raise the likelihood of a 0.75% hike and would likely boost the dollar. Conversely, a soft reading would reinforce expectations of the Fed easing to 0.50%, which would be bearish for the dollar. Canada is expected to post lukewarm job data for October. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up to 5.3% from 5.2%, with a consensus of 10,000 new jobs, down from 21,100 new jobs in September. Any misses in the forecasts for the Canadian and US job reports could trigger volatility from USD/CAD in the North American session. The Fed raised rates by 0.75% at this week’s meeting, as expected, but there was a double message for the markets. The rate statement was dovish, stating that the Fed might take a pause in order to see how the rate hikes were working. However, Fed Chair Powell was hawkish in his post-meeting comments, saying that there was no sign that inflation had peaked and that it was “very premature to talk about pausing rate hikes”. The unexpected hawkish tone sent equities lower and boosted the US dollar.   USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is putting strong pressure on support at 1.3656. Below, there is support at 1.3478 1.3757 and 1.3901 are the next lines of resistance This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The rate of job creation continues to slow, but the US still added 261,000 jobs in October, which was much better than expected. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings were also firmer, suggesting ongoing inflation pressures from the jobs market. The prospect of the Fed shifting to 50bp rate from December, while our call, is not guaranteed 261,000 Number of jobs created in October   The downtrend in hiring continues... This report was always going to be viewed in the context of the Federal Reserve signaling earlier this week that it is inclined to moderate the size of rate hikes, but end up at a higher terminal level than they had previously signaled. Well, on the one hand October’s 261,000 increase in non-farm payrolls is the smallest gain since December 2020, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% due to the household survey used to calculate the unemployment rate showing employment falling 328,000 and labour force participation declining – not a healthy look! The latest job announcements on job losses in the tech sector are also a concern so there is evidence of a moderation in the labour market that the more dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) can point to. Monthly payrolls gains (000s) Source: Macrobond, ING But there is ammunition for the hawks too However, the hawks, who think the Fed needs to continue hiking at pace, also have ammunition to back their arguments. The 261,000 figure was well above the 193,000 consensus forecast and there were upward revisions for the past two months totaling 29,000. Importantly, every sector reported job gains with manufacturing up 32,000, education and health up 79,000 and business services up 39,000 the biggest contributors. Remember too that job openings actually rose and there are currently 1.9 job vacancies for every unemployed American, which indicates ongoing excess demand. Perhaps more significantly for the hawks was the 0.4% month-on-month print for average hourly earnings, which supports that excess demand argument. We had been looking for the third consecutive 0.3% print, which would indicate a clear step down in the rate of wage growth from the 0.4-0.5% typical print over the past couple of years. As such, the Fed are likely to remain wary about inflation pressures emanating from the jobs market. In aggregate it suggests the labour market remains fairly robust and it keeps alive the possibility of a fifth 75bp hike. Remember though that we do have another jobs report and two more CPI reports before the December 14th FOMC decision. Within those three reports we still feel there will be enought to justify a step down to 50bp.   Read this article on THINK TagsUS Unemployment Jobs Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

President Joe Biden is not on the ballot at the 8 November mid-term elections, but the outcome will determine how much he can achieve in the second half of his presidential term and how the government can respond to growing recession risks. It will also be an important barometer for the Republican Party and whether Donald Trump will run against Biden in 2024   The presidency is not up for election until 2024, but the outcome of the mid-terms could determine whether Joe Biden stands again What's happening? All 435 members in the House of Representatives are up for election (currently 220 Democrats, 212 Republicans, three vacant). This is a two-year term. The Senate is comprised of 100 members. Each Senator has a six-year term with approximately a third up for election every two years; 34 Class 3 Senate seats + one seat due to vacancy is up for election on 8 November. Of these 35 Senate seats 21 are currently held by Republicans and 14 are Democrats. The Senate membership is currently 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and two independents who vote with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris (Democrat) gets the deciding vote in a tied ballot. Republicans need to win one seat (net) from the Democrats to control the Senate. Should the Democrats lose control of either the House or the Senate (or both) then President Biden’s ability to pass legislation will be severely curtailed. He would likely be limited to using executive powers – a heavily restricted form of lawmaking without tax-changing powers. It will therefore be important in defining what support can be offered to the economy in a likely recession – will the onus be on fiscal policy or monetary policy? The presidency is not up for election until 2024, but the outcome of the mid-terms could determine whether Biden stands again and whether former president Trump will seek the Republican nomination to run. The mid-term elections will also have implications for Biden’s climate agenda. Partial or full Republican control of Congress will add difficulties to the execution of clean energy tax incentives and funding under the Inflation Reduction Act, as well as other climate measures the administration intends to establish before the next presidential election. In all the scenarios of the election outcome, we can expect more measures coming from federal government agencies to regulate emissions. 36 states and three territories also hold gubernatorial elections – a vote to elect a governor to a four-year term, except for New Hampshire and Vermont where the governor serves a two-year term. Of the 36 states up for election, 20 currently have a Republican governor and 16 have a Democrat. Guam (Dem), US Virgin Islands (Dem) and the Northern Mariana Islands (Rep) are the territories holding elections. Numerous state elections for the attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer and state legislative elections are also occurring. This could have major implications in a contested election in 2024. There are also various local referendums, including abortion legislation referendums in six states. What are the key issues? President Biden’s approval rating, while low by historical standards, has increased following recent legislative “wins” surrounding green policies, infrastructure and technology. The Democrat Party’s stance following the Supreme Court’s vote to eliminate the constitutional right to obtain an abortion has also helped lift approval ratings.  Nonetheless, the most important issue according to pollsters is the state of the economy with the rising cost of living, higher interest rates and falling asset prices all causing concern for the electorate. Percentage of Americans mentioning economic issues as the nation's most important problem Source: Gallup   The perception of poor performance in government is the second-most cited negative factor. In the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court’s vote on abortion, this issue did become the top concern for 8% of respondents, having been at 1% the previous month. It has since slipped back to 4%. Other issues respondents cite as the top concern for the election Source: Gallup The state of play Mid-term elections are typically seen as a referendum on the effectiveness of a president and their party during the first two years of their term. The omens are not good with President Biden’s approval at this stage in his presidency below all other modern presidents, including the rating of Donald Trump ahead of the 2018 mid-terms at which he took heavy losses. High levels of partisanship, the high (and rising) cost of living, a weakening economy and falling asset prices are all hurting President Biden and the Democrats. Presidential approval ratings two weeks before mid-term elections Source: Gallup   The election of House members tends to reflect generic Republican-Democrat polling. FiveThirtyEight collates opinion polls which suggest that Republicans are on around 46% and Democrats are at 45% with 9% of the population undecided. Turnout is therefore key for the Democrats if they are to retain a winning margin in the House. People who want political change tend to vote in greater numbers than those who are content with the status quo. Mid-term election turnout tends to be far lower than for presidential election years. Typically, presidential election years see a turnout of 50-60% with 2020 seeing a 67% turnout. Mid-term elections typically see a turnout of around 40% although 2018 saw a 53% turnout. Hence, the consensus amongst political forecasters is that the Republicans will win a narrow victory thanks to their more motivated base. The Senate and Gubernatorial elections are different to the House elections in that senators and governors tend to be better known and individual personalities play a greater role in the decision-making process for the electorate. One way of looking at it is that California only has one governor and two senators, but 52 house seats. Consequently, the Senate races are less driven by national issues that impact generic Democrat-Republican voting patterns in the House. Most polls show the majority of Senate seats up for election are solid Democrat or solid Republican. There are perhaps only five Senate seats out of the 35 up for contention where there is genuine uncertainty on the outcome. The Cook Political Report lists one Democrat seat in Arizona, one in Georgia and one in Nevada as a “toss-up” while one Republican Senate seat in Pennsylvania and one in Wisconsin are listed similarly. Hence the Senate is a closer call than the House. What history tells us Only three out of the last 22 mid-term elections (going back to Franklin D Roosevelt’s presidency in 1934) have seen the incumbent president’s party make gains in the House of Representatives (nine seats for Roosevelt in 1934, five seats for Clinton in 1998 and eight seats for George W Bush in 2002). The six-seat gain that the Republicans need to win control of the House has been achieved on 17 occasions since 1934 and in each of the last four mid-terms. The median loss of House seats for an incumbent’s party since 1934 has been 28. In the Senate, the incumbent president’s party has gained seats on six occasions and lost seats 15 times with one no-change outcome since 1934. The median change in the past 21 occasions has been a loss of five seats. The Republicans need to pick up just one seat to control the Senate. What history tells us Source: Wikipedia, ING   While the backdrop supports the view that the Republicans have a strong chance to win control of the Senate, individual Republican candidates have run into difficulties. For example, Herschel Walker in Georgia has lost ground following an abortion scandal, while there are independent voter concerns regarding inexperience and extremism in other candidates. Momentum does seem to be behind the Republicans gaining control of both the House and the Senate with betting markets pricing in a much stronger chance of this happening in recent days (see chart below). We probably won't get a final set of results next week. In Georgia, the rules require the winner to get 50% + 1 vote but with Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker both polling around 46%, and a third Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver polling 5%, there may need to be a run-off between the top two on 6 December. Implied probabilities of outcomes based on PredictIt betting odds – spreads mean numbers do not sum to 1 Source: Macrobond The scenarios and what might happen in the next two years Republicans win the House and Democrats retain the Senate: Biden constrained. 40% probability President Biden struggled to pass legislation when he had a Democrat majority in both the House and the Senate. Without a majority in Congress, it is nigh on impossible. Intense partisanship with just two years to go until the next presidential elections means major legislation is unlikely to pass unless there is a national emergency. President Biden’s legislative actions are therefore likely limited to the use of executive orders and actions to circumvent Congress, where allowed. This is a much more limited form of government. Executive orders can only be implemented in areas where the president has constitutional powers, such as trade negotiations. The president cannot use an executive order to change taxes because that power is held by Congress. Executive orders can be an effective way of implementing policy since legislation is often written in broad, general language. Legislation is often set out to achieve certain targets or aims without explicitly saying how this should be done. An executive order can allow the president to specify in more detail the route to achieve those aims. These orders only apply to Federal agencies. Consequently, Biden’s focus may shift towards international relations and trade policy where the president is less constrained by Congress. Given that the fear of recession is rising, the president is going to have less scope to offer fiscal support given the requirement of having Republican legislators on board. This suggests that once inflation is under control the onus is going to be on the Federal Reserve to offer stimulus to the economy. This is our base case for aggressive interest rate cuts from the second half of 2023 onwards. A Senate controlled by the Democrats would still be able to approve the president’s choices for key positions, such as judges. With control of the House, Republicans gain congressional investigative powers, with some on the right already proposing looking into the president’s son, Hunter Biden’s, business dealings. They can also stall or disband other inquiries, including the committee investigation into the 6 January insurrection. Trump’s enlarged power base in the House could also lead to investigations into the FBI search at Mar-a-Lago. From a sustainability perspective, the landmark Inflation Reduction Act is unlikely to be repealed if the Republicans control either the House or the Senate because President Biden has the authority to veto the repeal, or any other passed legislation intended to replace the original law. However, under a divided Congress, it could be tough to execute the planned clean energy spending under the Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans could make it harder for the tax credits and funding to be distributed through stricter procedure inspection. Under this scenario, Biden will also likely embark on more climate initiatives from the executive branch, such as issuing executive orders or directing agencies to roll out more aggressive carbon regulations, although the latter faces challenges from the Supreme Court. The market impact (Republicans win House and Democrats retain Senate) FX: A split Congress and President Biden left to focus on international issues such as trade could end up proving mildly positive for the dollar. The Biden Administration’s stance on Chinese trade has not been as accommodative as many had expected back in 2020 and the recent tightening of restrictions in the semiconductor sector could lay the groundwork for a more hawkish trade path into 2024. Rates: Equity markets tend to prefer political malaise, as there is usually less political meddling to fret about. Any material outperformance in the equity space can act to amplify the upside move in market rates in the month or so after the mid-term outcomes. But the more medium-term prognosis points to a bigger fall in market rates. With congress stuck and unable to provide much fiscal support, it is the rates environment that has more room to react, bolstered by bigger cuts from the Federal Reserve versus other scenarios.    2. Republicans win the House and Senate: A springboard for Trump in 2024? 50% probability A bad performance for the Democrats will prompt questions as to whether Biden is the best person to lead the party into the next election. Senior Democrats could start jockeying for position with potential party infighting, further undermining the president’s ability to deliver policy. However, the lack of a credible alternative still favours Biden standing again and defeating any Democrat challenger. The president’s ability to pass any legislation is curtailed and limited to executive orders as outlined above. A Republican Senate would be able to block Biden’s picks for key positions in the judiciary and elsewhere. The fact that candidates backed by Trump, and importantly that backed him, have won seats in both the House and Senate strengthens his position as the likely Republican nominee to challenge Biden in 2024. The Republicans, buoyed by a convincing victory, are likely to open investigations into Joe Biden's son Hunter and there could even be impeachment charges. Republicans making sweeping gains in the House and the Senate would likely be mirrored by major gains for Republicans in state positions that have influence over election processes and the certification of results. This could make the 2024 election even more contentious. As in the previous scenario, there will be little prospect of any meaningful fiscal support to counter the recession, putting the onus on the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy aggressively in the second half of 2023 onwards. On sustainability, like the scenario of a split Congress, while the Inflation Reduction Act is here to stay, the implementation process would be a lot harder. Moreover, a fully Republican-controlled Congress would encourage the party to propose energy legislation that could advance their policy platform. For instance, there will likely be proposals to increase oil and gas activities to cement US energy dominance and seize profits from exports. There might also be attempts to streamline the federal energy project permitting process, which can substantially shorten the permitting time for not only renewable projects but also oil and gas projects. Some clean energy areas that will likely see Republican support include carbon capture and storage (CCS, as it can be applied to hard-to-abate sectors such as oil and gas), clean manufacturing, and key domestic energy supply chain strengthening. Congress would also likely support blue hydrogen produced from natural gas using CCS technologies over the short to medium term, as opposed to a more radical transition toward green hydrogen produced from renewables. Biden will likely be more aggressive (than in scenario 1) in using his executive power to counter resistance from Congress on the climate issue. 22 The market impact (Republicans win the House and Senate) FX: Republican control of both branches of Congress could initially weigh on the dollar via a hamstrung administration unable to deliver fiscal support in a downturn. Closer to 2024, however, the dollar could be making a comeback were Republicans to hold gains in the polls – given the experience with Donald Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Rates: For markets, this extreme version of political separation between the executive and congressional powers is one that will likely see politics lurch to petty squabbling, removing the risk for big macro-impactful outcomes. As a pre-emptive swing in the direction of a potential Trump administration, a pro-growth tint should result in higher bond yields than would otherwise be the case. Expect an amplification of the risk in yields to the upside, and then a more dramatic fall in market rates to the downside as we progress through 2023.   3. Democrats retain House and Senate: Biden gets a second chance. 10% probability This would be a major surprise given the current state of polling, but it would reinvigorate the Democratic party and Biden’s presidency. Legislation in support of abortion, same-sex marriage and voting rights would be high on the agenda. With recessionary fears intensifying, this outcome would be the one most likely to generate a fiscal response, presumably on spending support for impacted households, e.g. the reintroduction of a federal unemployment benefit. Looser fiscal policy may mean there is less pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, especially if inflation proves to be stickier than we project. The Republican party’s failure to pick up enough seats would likely weaken the chances of Trump being selected as the Republican candidate to challenge Biden in 2024. The party may look to put momentum behind alternatives such as Ron DeSantis, former vice-president Mike Pence and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Climate and clean energy legislation could be expanded, building on the Inflation Reduction Act (if they gain a Senate seat and remove the need to get backing from Kyrsten Sinema or Joe Manchin). For instance, Congress might propose bills to change excessive emissions from the power sector – a provision that was originally part of the Democrats’ legislative efforts but was removed by Manchin. Congress could even go a step further to pass a new law and give authorisation to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to put caps on power plant emissions. The EPA’s authority to do so was previously rescinded by a recent Supreme Court decision. Finally, the Biden administration could be expected to set up more regulation measures to curb emissions. These include tougher rules to reduce methane emissions, as well as new vehicle emissions and efficiency standards. The market impact (Democrats retain House and Senate) FX: A surprise retention by the Democrats of both the House and the Senate could be seen as a dollar positive for 2023. The administration would have more power to meet a recession with a fiscal response. This would potentially make more difficult the Fed’s objective of bringing inflation back to 2%. Rates: Markets would perceive this as being the lower growth and heightened political meddling outcome, which would tend to present a downside risk for equity markets relative to the baseline. For bonds, one question is how inflation might be impacted, with risks that the elevation of climate-focused measures could result in higher inflation, at least in the short term. This could dominate the perception of a lower growth outlook, resulting in higher bond yields than otherwise would be the case (although they would still fall in 2023 once the cycle has turned). That said, there is also a route for bigger spending from a Democratic-controlled administration, bolstering growth and the supply of bonds. That could in turn ultimately skew the risk towards higher market rates on a more medium-term outlook. Read this article on THINK TagsUS Politics US elections Trump Midterm elections Joe Biden Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

US This week will be massive for markets as investors closely watch to see how inflation moderates. In addition to watching to see if inflation comes down from a 40-year high, Wall Street will pay close attention to the midterm elections. Right now polls are suggesting Republicans have a good chance to take over both the House and Senate.   In addition to the inflation report and the midterm election, traders will also closely monitor the preliminary University of Michigan Survey. Sentiment is expected to soften, but traders will pay close attention to inflation expectations, which have been pushing higher.   EU  A quiet week as far as upper-tier economic data is concerned which means the focus next week will be on commentary from ECB policymakers including President Lagarde on Monday, among others.  UK The dust continues to settle in the UK but as BoE Governor Bailey indicated last week, it’s going to take time to regain confidence and credibility in the markets. The events of the last couple of months have severely damaged the UK’s reputation which was already tarnished by those of recent years. All eyes are now on the Autumn Statement on 17 November.  We’ll get a steady stream of BoE commentary throughout the week which comes on the back of a very dovish rate hike, in which Bailey and colleagues pushed back strongly against market expectations. GDP data on Friday will be of interest but most have already accepted that the country is in recession. Russia Inflation data is the most notable release next week after the central bank left its key rate unchanged at 7.5% in October.  South Africa A relatively quiet week containing a few tier two or three economic releases, the highlight of which is probably manufacturing production figures on Thursday, both of which are expected to have declined in September. Turkey Official inflation reached more than 85% in October as the central bank continues to slash interest rates. The inflation data is clearly no deterrent and if anything, President Erdogan sounds more determined than ever to see rates fall further.  Industrial production and unemployment data among the economic releases next week. Switzerland Inflationary pressures eased a little last month which may come as a relief to SNB policymakers, some of whom we’ll hear from next week including Chairman Jordan. Further hikes still look likely but to what extent? Policymakers may shed some light.  China As China’s zero-Covid policy continues, the recently released manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for October fell to 48.7 and 49.2, respectively, below the 50 threshold separating contraction from expansion.  Investors should pay close attention to China’s foreign trade data for October on Monday to see if China’s trade surplus is tending to deteriorate. The CPI on Wednesday is also key as an increase will reduce the ability of the PBOC to support the economy. The market is currently discussing the possibility of the PBOC lowering the reserve requirement ratio again in order to release more liquidity. These policies may support a more accommodative monetary policy environment in China, which will support growth.    India Very few economic releases are due next week with the only one of note being industrial output on Friday.  Australia & New Zealand The AUDUSD and NZDUSD have rallied slightly as market risk sentiment has warmed over the past two weeks. They’ve been broadly weak overall against the US dollar as China’s zero-Covid policy continued, and the market was still digesting the Fed rate moves.  The RBA raised interest rates by 25 bps at its monetary policy meeting on 1 November, raising the cash rate from 2.60% to 2.85%. The RBA updated its forecasts, raising its expectation for peak inflation to 8.0% from 7.75%. Third quarter CPI released last week rose by 7.3% in October, above market expectations of 7.0% and the previous value of 6.1%. The RBA is likely to continue its policy of raising interest rates at the next meeting on 6 December.  As the overall level of inflation in New Zealand remains high, the market expects a 50-75 bps rate hike at the RBNZ’s next central bank rate meeting on 23 November.  Japan The Bank of Japan remained committed to its super-loose monetary policy at its last meeting while raising inflation expectations across the board (the CPI ex-fresh food forecast for FY2023 was raised from 1.4% to 1.6% per annum). It will release its summary of opinions from board members on Monday. Japan may intervene again in the FX market in the coming weeks if USDJPY continues to aggressively rally. There has been discussion in the market about whether the Bank of Japan will undertake a step-by-step exit from its yield curve control (YCC) in the future, although policymakers have pushed back against this. Singapore According to the Monetary Authority of Singapore, core inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, and the economy is expected to grow at a below-trend rate in 2023. Singapore’s CPI recently hit 7.5% in September, with the core CPI at 5.3%. Business confidence also fell sharply to -20 in the third quarter, compared to -8 previously.  No major economic releases are due next week. Economic Calendar Saturday, Nov. 5 Economic Events Berkshire Hathaway Inc reports Q3 earnings Sunday, Nov. 6 Economic Events Daylight Saving Time ends in the US The annual UN climate summit, COP27 begins in Egypt Monday, Nov. 7 Economic Data/Events Australian Foreign reserves China foreign reserves and trade Singapore foreign reserves Germany industrial production Thailand CPI ECB President Lagarde speaks to the European Commission/ECB high-level conference on the framework for a digital euro ECB board member Panetta participates in a panel discussion at the same event Fed’s Collins and Mester speak at a symposium on women in economics hosted by the Cleveland Fed Fed’s Barkin participates in a discussion about inflation Eurozone finance ministers meet in Brussels Tuesday, Nov. 8 Economic Data/Events US midterm elections Australia consumer confidence, household spending Eurozone retail sales France trade Japan household spending, leading index Mexico international reserves New Zealand truckometer traffic index, inflation expectation Bundesbank symposium; speeches by Nagel and Enria Riksbank’s Breman speaks about the global economy ECB’s Wunsch gives a public lecture in Geneva entitled “Germs, War and Central Banks” BOE’s Mann participates in a panel at a conference on global risk, uncertainty and volatility hosted by the Swiss National Bank, Fed and BIS in Zurich BOE Chief Economist Pill participates in a panel at the UBS European Conference in London BOJ announces the outright purchase amount of government securities Wednesday, Nov. 9 Economic Data/Events US wholesale inventories, MBA mortgage applications Mexico CPI Hungary CPI Russia CPI  China aggregate financing, PPI, CPI, money supply, new yuan loans Japan BoP, bank lending New Zealand card spending Poland rate decision: Expected to keep base rate unchanged at 6.75% South Korea jobless rate, bank lending to households UK RICS home prices EIA crude oil inventory New York Fed President John Williams speaks at a conference on global risk, uncertainty and volatility jointly hosted by the Swiss National Bank, Fed and BIS in Zurich Fed’s Barkin speaks about the economic outlook at the Shenandoah University School of Business in Winchester, Virginia RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock speaks at the 2022 ABE Annual Dinner in Sydney ECB’s Elderson participates in a panel at an event organized by Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association Norges Bank and Riksbank release their respective financial stability reports BOE’s Haskel speaks at a Digital Futures at Work Research Centre event titled “Restarting the Future: How to Fix the Intangible Economy” Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee is scheduled to address a British Chamber of Commerce-organized webinar  Thursday, Nov. 10 Economic Data/Events US CPI and jobless claims Norway CPI Australia consumer inflation expectations Italy industrial production Japan money stock, machine tool orders Mexico rate decision: Expected to raise the overnight rate by 75bps to 10.00% New Zealand home sales South Africa manufacturing production Thailand consumer confidence Dallas Fed President Logan and Kansas City Fed President George speak at an energy and economy conference jointly hosted by their banks Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks about the outlook for the economy and monetary policy at a virtual event hosted by Princeton University BOE Deputy Governor Ramsden participates in a panel at the Next STEP Global Conference 2022 hosted by PIIE and National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore BOE’s Tenreyro delivers a keynote speech at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference in London SNB’s Maechler delivers keynote speech at the 17th Annual Meeting of SFI in Zurich ECB’s Schnabel, Kažimír and Vasle speak at an event in Ljubljana, Slovenia. Schnabel also participates in a roundtable discussion at the Bank of Slovenia ECB publishes its Economic Bulletin RBNZ releases a review of monetary policy implementation United Nations publishes its “Food Outlook” report Friday, Nov. 11 Economic Data/Events US Veterans Day holiday. The stock market will be open US University of Michigan consumer sentiment China FDI Singles’ Day (Shopping event) in China ECB’s Panetta delivers a talk at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies in Milan ECB’s de Guindos, Pablo Hernández de Cos and Centeno speak at XXVII Encuentro de Economía en S’Agaró ECB’s Holzmann speaks to journalists at the Club of Economic Writers in Vienna ECB Chief Economist Lane participates in a policy panel at the 23rd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington EU releases its autumn economic forecast Germany CPI Hong Kong GDP India industrial production Japan PPI Mexico industrial production New Zealand food prices, PMI Turkey industrial production, current account UK industrial production, GDP Sovereign Rating Updates Switzerland (Fitch) Iceland (S&P) This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Week Ahead - Control of Congress - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Inflation is at the top of the world worry list in 2022. The situation in the United States proves that inflation is a global problem. Although the local market is in better shape than, for example, the European one, the level of inflation in the US has not been so high for over 40 years. Undoubtedly, the most anticipated macroeconomic data in the world will be those on the behavior of the CPI and the "base" (core) version of this indicator that does not take into account energy and food prices in the USA. Previous reading Data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)show that inflation in the country is now 8.2% according to the latest publication. The CPI data were perhaps not that bad, although economists expected a drop to 8.1%. but it was the third consecutive month of decline in this indicator. Core inflation (CPI) in September 2022 was 6.6%. y/y versus 6.3% in August and forecasts at 6.5 percent. Month-on-month was 0.6%, against the forecast of 0.5%. Expectations Inflation data, especially on core inflation, are to be of key importance when it comes to the next decisions of the US central bank concerning interest rate hikes. CPI data are scheduled to be released on November 10, 2022. Inflation is expected to reach 8.0% y/y against the previous reading of 8.2%. This may mean that the Fed's actions are paying off. The monthly CPI change is forecast to be 0.7%. However, if it turned out to be higher, the market could take it very badly. It would be a strong argument for the Fed to continue to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Source: investing.com Core inflation also expects a decline of 0.1% from 6.6% to 6.5%. This inflation is of particular importance as it does not take into account price changes excluding food and energy, which are the main factors influencing the overall CPI. Fed's fight with inflation and its price For the past year and a half, consumer inflation in the world's largest economy has been spinning out of the control of central bankers. The Fed is trying at all costs to bring inflation back to a stable 2% level. The Fed started a cycle of interest rate hikes in March, raising the cost of money by 25 bp to 0.25-0.5%. In April, FOMC members decided to move by 50 bp. up. At subsequent meetings it is already by 75bp. With today's rate increase, the benchmark federal funds rate is a range of 3.75% to 4%. Rates are expected to peak at 4.5% to 4.75% in 2023, according to the U.S. central bank's own projections. In simple terms, the Fed's approach can be described as an attempt to destroy demand while encouraging businesses and individuals to save. At every opportunity, business owners will cut back on their expenses, which can result in the employment rate stagnating, leaving workers' wages unchanged and discouraging them from spending more. Inflation in the USA is a major problem for the markets The more the American central bank tightens its monetary policy in 2022, the more the dollar strengthens, and this is painfully felt by other currencies in the world, e.g. the euro (EUR), the Japanese yen (JPY) or the British pound (GBP). The rate hikes cycle in the US turned out to be a difficult period for assets. The main indices of American stock exchanges, as well as markets practically all over the world, have been recording drastic drops since the end of 2021. In the bond market, for the first time in 40 years, we have a bearish market, and cryptocurrency rates were losing by 50 to 90 percent in the first half of 2022. your worth. On the other hand, assets like gold have gained significant importance as a hedge against inflation. Cryptocurrency has also proved to be an ideal option compared to gold as an investment against severe inflation. Source: investing.com, www.federalreserve.gov/data.htm, www.bls.gov/cpi/

In 2022, Forex does not let investors get bored. Strong trends, numerous shocks and volatility growing by leaps and bounds attract increased attention to the international currency market. It is not for nothing that the trading volume on it, according to BIS research, has grown to $7.5 trillion per day, which is 14% more than in 2019. Still, Forex lacks the spice that Donald Trump once added with his antics. And now the eccentric Republican has the opportunity to return. Will the spectacle become even more interesting? Investors are shifting their attention on the US midterm elections. Markets predict with a 70% probability that Republicans will seize control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, while the chances of Democrats to remain in power are estimated at a modest 10%. However, US President Joe Biden will continue to sit in the White House until 2024, and in theory this means that fewer laws will be passed in the next couple of years. For Forex, the Republicans' emphasis on fiscal consolidation is important, which will lead to a reduction in the budget deficit, reduce the volume of bonds issued and increase demand for them from non-residents. The inflow of capital into America will support the US dollar. Dynamics of the US budget deficit However, no matter how much politicians would like to influence the exchange rate, the prerogative in this matter clearly belongs to the Federal Reserve. Following the November FOMC meeting, CME derivatives raised expectations for expected rates for 2023-2025. The ceiling has shifted to 5.15%, above the Open Market Committee's September forecast of 4.6% and is bullish for the US dollar. Dynamics of the expected federal funds rate As the cost of borrowing rises, so will the yield on US Treasury bonds, which has already reached its highest level since 2007-2008. This worsens the fundamental valuation of US stocks, contributes to the fall of stock indices, worsening global risk appetite and increases demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Yield The yield on debt obligations will fall only in case of deterioration of macroeconomic statistics in America. However, as long as the US labor market remains strong and inflation wanders at the highest levels in the last 40 years, the Fed will consider its work not done and will continue to raise rates. This circumstance gives grounds to classify any growth of EURUSD as a correction. The downward trend remains in force, especially since due to the relative weakness of the eurozone labor market compared to the US, the European Central bank cannot afford to raise rates as high as the Fed. EUR/USD Technically, on the EURUSD daily chart, returning above the fair value by 0.978 to the limits of the corrective ascending channel delays the sad end for the bulls, but does not cancel it. The rebound from the resistance at 0.9845 and 0.987, as well as the fall below the support at 0.978 are the basis for short positions. The bearish targets are 0.964 and 0.949.     Relevance up to 13:00 2022-11-09 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/326298

USDCHF struggles for support The US dollar plunged after data showed a higher US unemployment rate in October. A break below 1.0000 could prolong the consolidation as the parity level has been acting like a magnet, pulling the price back and forth. With the RSI deeply in the oversold area. Trend followers may see the pullback as an opportunity to stake in. 0.9920 is the first support and 0.9840 a critical level to keep the price afloat. 1.0020 is a fresh resistance and a bounce above 1.0140 could pave the way for a rally to a six-year high at 1.0350. USDCAD breaks critical support The Canadian dollar soared after solid jobs data raised bets for a large-sized rate hike by the BoC. The pair has been struggling to hold onto its gains above October’s lows (1.3500), which was a critical level to keep the rally relevant in the short-term. A previous rally came under pressure in the supply zone around 1.3800, then a fall below 1.3600 revealed that the bears have regained control. A dip below 1.3500 would extend losses towards 1.3400. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound with 1.3600 as the first hurdle. GER 40 breaks major ceiling The Dax 40 rallies as mixed US jobs data lift risk appetite across asset classes. The index previously met stiff selling pressure near September’s high around 13450. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling in this supply zone has weighed on the short-term price action. But the fallback has only shaken out weak hands and the swift recovery with a higher high indicates that the bulls are still in play. The bullish breakout could lift offers to the August high (13950). 13100 is the support should the Dax need some breathing room.

The dollar long squeeze on Friday was likely triggered by optimism on China's Covid rules. We suspect this is too premature, and macro factors continue to point to dollar strength. But there are two key risk events for the dollar this week: US CPI (we expect a 0.5% MoM core reading) and mid-term elections (Biden losing control of Congress may be a USD negative) USD: Room for recovery, but watch for the mid-terms Last week was a hectic one in FX. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish press conference left markets searching for an even higher peak rate (currently at 5.1%) and highlighted the divergence between the still hawkish Fed and the growing list of developed central banks that are turning more cautious on tightening (Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, Norges Bank). This was a clear bullish narrative for the dollar, which was well supported until Friday when optimism in risk assets triggered some heavy position-squaring on dollar longs. A key risk-on driver on Friday was the apparent loosening of Covid restrictions in China. Indeed, China’s economic woes have been a major factor weighing on global sentiment in recent months. However, a larger relief rally appears a bit premature. First, because the course of Beijing’s health policy has been very hard to interpret, and Chinese officials have already pushed back against any speculation they will drop the zero-Covid policy. Second, this morning’s drop in Chinese exports is yet another signal that slowing global demand is a major drag on Chinese growth. Third, China has been only one factor in the negative risk equation: the search for a higher Fed peak rate and elevated uncertainty around the medium-term economic outlook and energy crisis should keep a cap on risk assets for longer – and ultimately may still favour defensive trades like long dollar positions. The dollar correction that started in late October was fully unwound in about a week, and this indicated – in our view – how macro factors continue to favour dollar strength and the corrections are mostly related to position-squeezing events. We, therefore, expect a re-appreciation of the dollar in the near term, although there are two major risk events to watch this week in the US: the CPI report and mid-term elections. Our US economist expects inflation numbers this week to be important, but not critical for future policy action by the Fed. Most of the focus will be on the monthly change in core CPI, which we expect to come in at 0.5%, in line with consensus. That would indicate further resilience in underlying price pressures and may prevent markets from completely discarding another 75bp hike in December, ultimately offering the dollar a floor. Below-consensus readings may force a dovish re-pricing in rate expectations though. When it comes to the US mid-term elections, we discussed the scenarios and market implications in this article. The bigger downside risk for the dollar is that the Republicans secure control of both the House and the Senate, which would imply a hamstrung administration unable to deliver fiscal support in a downturn. A split Congress (House control going to the Republicans) may be mostly priced in, and the implications for the dollar could be relatively limited. We expect more FX volatility this week, but retain a near-term bullish USD bias and expect DXY to climb back above 113.00 in the coming weeks. Today’s calendar in the US only includes speeches by Fed’s Loretta Mester and Tom Barkin. Francesco Pesole EUR: China's push looks premature Europe’s elevated exposure to the China growth story means that the euro should benefit from speculation that Beijing will loosen Covid restrictions. As discussed in the USD section above, this appears premature speculation, and Chinese growth is still facing the grim prospect of slowing global demand. In line with our view that the dollar should recover in the near term, we don’t think EUR/USD will be able to climb back above parity on a sustainable basis – even though the two risk events this week (US CPI and mid-term elections) could trigger another USD long squeeze. There are not many key data releases in the eurozone this week, and most focus will be on European Central Bank speakers. A pre-registered video of Christine Lagarde on the digital euro will be released this morning, and we’ll hear from Fabio Panetta later today. There are a plethora of other speakers during the week, but the direct impact of expected ECB policy on the euro looks set to remain rather contained. Francesco Pesole GBP: In an uneasy position Despite the dollar’s correction on Friday, the pound still has to fully recover from the post-Bank of England blow. Indeed, the combination of a highly concerning economic outlook and a forced dovish repricing in rate expectations look set to keep the pound rather unattractive. This week, 3Q growth figures are the highlight in the UK calendar, and our economist forecasts a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter contraction, which should all but endorse the BoE’s more cautious approach. There are a few MPC members speaking this week, including Chief Economist Huw Pill and Silvana Tenreyro, the latter having voted for a 25bp hike last Thursday. Cable may be primarily driven by dollar moves this week, but EUR/GBP could extend gains to the 0.8850/70 area. Francesco Pesole CEE: Local story replaces global factors We have another heavy week ahead in the Central and Eastern European region. Today, we start with industrial production in the Czech Republic, where PMIs show a steep decline in production at the end of the year. Tomorrow, in addition to retail sales and industrial production in Hungary, we will see the Romanian central bank's last meeting of the year. We expect a slowdown in the tightening pace to 50bp to 6.75%, in line with market expectations, which could be the last hike in this cycle. But an additional 25bp hike cannot be ruled out in January. Hungarian inflation for October will be published on Wednesday. We expect another jump from 20.1% to 21.0% YoY. Also, on Wednesday we will see the Polish central bank meeting. Our call is for a 25bp hike to 7.00%, but no change will also be on the table, in our view. Thursday will see the release of October inflation in the Czech Republic. We expect only a slight increase from 18.0% to 18.2% YoY, slightly above market expectations, but the risk is new government measures and the approach of the statistical office. Then on Friday, we will finish the series of October inflation prints in Romania, where we expect a slowdown from 15.9% to 15.2% YoY, slightly below market expectations. In the FX market, surprisingly for us, CEE has survived tough weeks which have seen ECB and Fed rate hikes, a stronger dollar and gas prices at higher levels. This week, the local story will come into play. EUR/USD and gas prices are back to more CEE FX-friendly levels, which should be positive for the region in the first half of the week. On the other hand, interest rate differentials are still pointing to weaker FX in the region, and central bank decisions and CPI readings (except in Hungary) support a rather dovish mood, which is negative for FX. From this perspective, we see the Polish zloty as most vulnerable at the moment, which should suffer from the central bank's dovish decision. Moreover, the cost of funding has fallen from its peak in recent days, making shorting less expensive. Thus, we see the zloty closer to 4.750 EUR/PLN in the second half of the week. The Hungarian forint shows the biggest gap in our models at the moment against a weaker interest rate differential. However, higher inflation should again support market expectations and hold the forint slightly above 400 EUR/HUF. The Czech koruna reached its strongest levels since August after the Czech National Bank meeting and is benefiting from temporary short position liquidation. However, we see its value rather closer to 24.50 EUR/CZK. The Romanian leu is down from NBR intervention levels and is closely following global sentiment. Therefore, we expect it to remain below 4.90 EUR/RON for longer. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged today, trading at 1.3483. Canadian dollar flies on job gains It was a day to remember for the Canadian dollar, which rocketed almost 2% higher on Friday. The driver behind the spike was a massive gain in jobs at 108, 300 in October, up from 20,000 in September. The reading crushed the forecast of 10,000. Wage growth rose to 5.5%, up from 5.2%, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.2%. The employment gain was especially impressive as it was spread across the economy and was made up entirely of full-time jobs. The Bank of Canada, which hiked rates to 3.75% after a 50 basis point increase in late October is likely to respond with additional oversize hikes. The markets have priced in a 70% chance of a 50 basis point increase in December, and the terminal rate is projected at 4.5%.  At the October meeting, BoC Governor Macklem said that the BoC was closer to ending the tightening cycle, while acknowledging that the BoC was far from achieving its goal of lowering inflation to its 2% target. Headline inflation has slowed to 6.9%, but core inflation has persisted. In the US, the nonfarm payrolls sent mixed and somewhat confusing signals to the market. The October reading of 261,000 was stronger than the consensus of 200,000, but it marked the smallest gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, up from 3.5%, while wage growth rose to 5.5% YoY, up from 5.2%. The latter release is likely to keep the Fed concerned about inflationary pressures. Bottom line? The jobs report indicates that the labour market remains robust and although a 50-bp hike is likely, a 75-bp move remains a possibility. There is one more employment report and two more inflation releases ahead of the December 14th FOMC decision, each of which should be treated as a market-mover.   USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.3420 and 1.3586 There is support at 1.3364 and 1.3248 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.  

The dollar index lost over 1.9% on Friday, one of the ten most significant daily declines in the last 20 years. Given that the pressure on the dollar was throughout Friday and remained in place on Monday, dollar bulls are clearly capitulating, unable to push the US currency up. We last saw more significant intraday volatility in the dollar index in 2015 and all other times in 2008-2009. And the more remarkable thing is that there was no disruptive data or historical moves by governments or central bankers behind such dramatic fluctuations. The hard data showed us a comparatively strong employment report in the USA (an argument for a rate hike). An increase in the unemployment rate from 3.5% to 3.7% does not count, as traders are much more focused on the absolute change in the number of employed people and wages. Market participants paid more attention to the clarifying remarks of the FOMC members. On Friday and later in the weekend, Fed commentators indicated a willingness to lower the rate hike - repeating the message we heard on Wednesday evening in the official FOMC commentary and the press conference that followed. On Friday, however, the major central banks also had hardly any active play. The Chinese yuan rose against the dollar throughout Friday, rising more than 2.2%. The hand of the Swiss National Bank is also likely, with the USDCHF losing 2.4% from the beginning of the day on Friday until now, repeating the moves we saw precisely a fortnight ago from the same levels. A more interesting play can be seen in the USDJPY. After the decisive assault on October 21, the pair reversed to the downside from increasingly lower levels: 149.3-148.7-148.3. While this still doesn't look like a break of the uptrend (previous lows remain intact), it’s an impressive bid for a trend change. EURUSD, the key currency market pair, is storming back to parity and the area above the 50-day moving average. Despite the breakdown of the brisk October uptrend, the uptrend as a sequence of rising local lows and highs has been maintained. The Dollar index is down to 110.2, trading below its 50-day average. The dollar rally triggered by Fed policy has aged too much, and both Fed officials and market reaction on Friday indicate that the dollar is entering a new phase of the global cycle.

USDCAD picks up bids to extend the previous day’s rebound from six-week low. Bearish MACD signals, steady RSI keep sellers hopeful. Buyers can return unless breaking 1.3340, inverted hammer challenges bearish bias. USDCAD extends the week-start rebound to 1.3510 during early Tuesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Loonie pair justifies the previous day’s “inverted hammer” bullish candlestick while poking the 50-DMA hurdle. It should be noted, however, that the Loonie pair’s sustained break of a one-month-old horizontal area surrounding 1.3500 during the last week joins the bearish MACD signals to suggest the quote’s underlying weakness in momentum. Hence, the latest rebound appears elusive unless the quote provides a daily closing beyond the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.3515. Following that, a gradual run-up toward s1.3610 and 1.3720 can’t be ruled out. However, multiple hurdles around 1.3840-50 could challenge the USDCAD bulls afterward. Meanwhile, fresh sellers could wait for the quote’s downside break of the latest swing low, around 1.3465. Following that, a convergence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s August-October upside and a three-month-old ascending support line, surrounding 1.3350-40, will be crucial to watch for the USDCAD bears. Should the quote provides a daily closing below 1.3340, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the early September highs near 1.3210 can’t be ruled out. Adding strength to the said support is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden ratio. USDCAD: Daily chart Trend: Limited upside expected

Investors are tense and undecided into the US midterm elections today.Joe Biden had a rough time since he is in office: he Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the global energy crisis, the skyrocketing inflation, a pitilessly tighter Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, rising mortgage rates… all these factors will weight on the wrong side of the balance for Democrats at today’s election. The consensus expectation is a divided government between White House and Congress. Republicans are favoured to take the House and have at least 50/50 seats at Senate. What does that mean for the US monetary and fiscal policies, the financial markets, and the dollar? Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:20 US midterm elections: what to expect? 2:03 Impact on the Fed policy & USD 5:41 Impact on the fiscal policy & USD 7:34 Impact on stocks Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #midterm #election #2022 #USD #JPY #EUR #Gbp #CHF #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

USDCAD seesaws around multi-day low, picks up bids of late. Challenges to sentiment from the US election results, China’s covid conditions test USDCAD bears. DXY rebound, higher inventories weigh on oil prices. Risk catalysts eyed for directions ahead of US CPI, speech from BOC’s Macklem. USDCAD grinds near 1.3450 heading into Wednesday’s European session amid dicey markets. The anxiety over US government gridlock joins covid fears from China and a cautious mood ahead of the key data/events to restrict the Loonie pair’s latest moves. That said, softer prices of Canada’s key export item, namely the WTI Crude Oil, tease the USDCAD bulls. The energy benchmark drops for the third consecutive day down 0.85% intraday near $87.75 by the press time. Also read: WTI bears attack $88.00 as concerns over China’s demand, US midterm elections join API inventory build Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints mild gains around 109.70 amid the escalating fears of the US government gridlock due to the latest updates from the mid-term elections. Also fueling the market’s fears and the USDCAD prices could be the headlines suggesting a six-month high covid number from China and further virus-led lockdowns. While portraying the market’s mood, the S&P 500 Futures struggle to track Wall Street’s gains while the US 10-year Treasury yields probe bears after snapping a four-day downtrend the previous day. It should be noted, however, that the anxiety ahead of Thursday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October and a speech from the Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem challenge the pair buyers. The reason could be linked to the recently mixed US data and Fedspeak, as well as the BOC’s easing in the rate hikes. Also read: US Inflation Preview: Markets set to seize on falling Core CPI to revive pivot play, three scenarios Technical analysis A one-week-old descending trend line portrays the USDCAD pair’s recent weakness. Also keeping the sellers hopeful are the bearish MACD signal and the clear break of the previous support line from early October. Additionally, the pair’s sustained trading below the 200-SMA also adds strength to the downside bias.

It looks as though the Democrats are doing a little better than expected in the US mid-terms. This news looks unlikely to unlock some of the equity gains that had been envisaged and we have yet to see the dollar extending its correction. Expect a day of FX consolidation ahead of US CPI tomorrow. Today's Polish monetary policy decision could weigh on the zloty United States Capitol building silhouette and US flags at sunrise Source: Shutterstock USD: Mid-terms point to a challenging two years of US policy What we have seen so far from the US mid-term results are: i) the Republicans likely taking control of the House, ii) a much closer Senate race than expected with a possibility the Democrats could retain it, and iii) the swing to Republicans not being as large as expected. How the US mid-terms play out in FX markets is rather a loose proposition - suggestions had been that a likely equity rally on the back of Republican control of Congress had been weighing on the dollar this month. In reality, buy-side surveys seem to have been split on what various mid-term outcomes would mean for equities, and hence the link between mid-terms and FX looks tenuous at best. In our US mid-term election preview, we suggested the scenario of a Republican House and a Democrat Senate might be slightly positive for the dollar in that a hamstrung Biden administration might be left to focus on Presidental executive orders including more hawkish policy on China. Additionally, reports suggest a Republican House will use next year's debt ceiling for policy leverage (such as tighter fiscal policy) and also launch a series of House investigations. On the former, a debt-ceiling stand-off in 2H23 could hit investor appetite for US asset markets and weaken the dollar - and our baseline forecasts already assume that the dollar will be turning by that stage. Back to the short term, it looks as though calls for an uninterrupted US equity rally into year-end are built on weak foundations and instead the core story of tighter US financial conditions will continue to dominate. Tomorrow's release of the October US CPI will have an important say here. An outcome in line with the consensus estimate of a 0.5% month-on-month rise in core inflation would likely keep expectations of Fed funds at 5% next year on track and keep the dollar supported. DXY is trading back under 110 again and barring a very soft US inflation release tomorrow, we see very little reason for the correction to extend much further. Favour a 109.50-110.50 range in DXY into tomorrow's CPI. Barring the mid-term results, the US calendar is light today. Fed speakers are Thomas Barkin and John Williams, both seen to the modestly hawkish end of the Fed spectrum.  Chris Turner EUR: Unpacking the EUR/USD correction EUR/USD is now around 5% off its late September lows. What has driven it? Fed communication has been reasonably hawkish and pricing of the Fed cycle is still near its highs - thus we cannot blame the correction on the Fed. What about a hawkish ECB? Two-year EUR:USD swap differentials have narrowed a little (10bp since the start of the month) and the 10-year US Treasury-German Bund spread has also narrowed 10bp this month, too. However, interest rate differentials have not been a big driver of EUR/USD over recent months. What probably is making the difference are equity markets. Since early October, European equity benchmarks are up 11% versus the 5-6% recovery in their US equivalents. Some bottom-fishing in European assets markets (including FX) may be at work here. We would argue that both the Fed and the ECB intend to take real rates even higher to turn the inflation trajectory around - meaning that further equity gains remain challenging. Above 1.0090/1.0100 EUR/USD could briefly see 1.02, but we would be in the camp saying that this correction does not endure and would still favour a return towards 0.95 into year-end as the Fed tightens the monetary knot still further. Chris Turner GBP: Holding pattern UK policymakers will appreciate the fact the UK asset markets have fallen out of the financial headlines for the time being. The UK's 5-year sovereign CDS is flat-lining near 30bp, back where it was in early September, if not early August (sub 20bp). When it comes to expected volatility in FX markets, EUR/GBP 3m volatility is trading around 8.5% - back to early September levels, while 3m GBP/USD volatility is also consolidating just below 13% and way off the near 20% levels seen in late September. So it is fair to say that some calm has returned to sterling FX markets. We continue to favour some sterling underperformance going into year-end, however. A tight UK fiscal budget on 17 November could be the catalyst to wipe a lot more off the expected Bank of England tightening cycle than is to come off the ECB cycle. And our call for a difficult, not benign external environment should see sterling soften again. EUR/GBP dips below 0.87 could provide hedging opportunities for European corporates with GBP revenue exposure. Chris Turner CEE: Difficult decision-making by the National Bank of Poland A heavy calendar continues today in the Central and Eastern Europe region. October inflation will be released in Hungary and we expect another jump from 20.1% to 21.0% year-on-year in line with expectations. The common drivers here will be rising processed food and services prices with some extra pressure coming from durables as well as the forint hitting its weakest level versus all the majors during October. Later today, the National Bank of Poland's decision will dominate CEE markets. We expect a 25bp rate hike to 7.00%, but our economists admit it will be a close call and unchanged rates are also a possibility. Inflation continues to rise, but on the other hand, the Polish zloty has strengthened significantly since the last meeting and the situation in the CEE region has generally calmed down, which should make the MPC more complacent and continue with its dovish rhetoric. Surveys are also expecting a 25bp rate hike and markets seem to be leaning on the hawkish side in our view. Hence, we believe the overall tone of today's NBP meeting and tomorrow's press conference will be dovish regardless of the pace of monetary policy tightening and the meeting will be negative for the Polish zloty, which has strengthened from levels around 4.850 to below 4.70 EUR/PLN in the last three weeks. Hence, we see the zloty vulnerable and furthermore, this is supported by the significant decline in the interest rate differential in recent days and the drop in costs of funding, which make it less expensive to be short the zloty. So as we mentioned earlier, we expect the zloty to trade above 4.750 EUR/PLN. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary:  Market sentiment improved further yesterday before dipping slightly overnight, as China Covid cases are on the rise, pushing back against hopes for a lifting of Covid restrictions. In the US mid-term elections, Democrats are slightly outperforming expectations, possibly set to retain control of the Senate even if Republicans look set to take narrow control of the House of Representatives. FX Trading focus: Next test for struggling USD over tomorrow’s US CPI data. The US mid-term election results are still rolling in this morning in Europe, with the Republicans set to take a small majority in the House and the Senate outcome looking at risk of riding on the outcome of a Georgia run-off election on December 6th as neither candidate looks set to achieve the 50% required for elections there. Remember that we had a similar setup after the 2020 election when two Senate races in Georgia were only decided in a January 5 run-off. There are no real market conclusions from the outcome, even if the Georgia race gives the Republicans a majority in the Senate, as the only scenario that would have guaranteed dramatic potential for fiscal policy would have been the Democrats surprisingly retaining both houses. Other conclusions: Trump is a liability for the Republican party, which likely would have done far better without his involvement, and forensic studies of split-ticket voting will likely confirm this, and it will be interesting to see if this deters his possible renewed ambitions for the presidency. Finally: razor thin Georgia results keep alive the narratives around election fraud, etc. Can the US move beyond its dysfunctional elections by 2024 or will the republic face an existential test in that election cycle? Back to incoming data, with tomorrow’s US October CPI in focus. Let’s recall that the September CPI data point was a real shocker as many qualified slicers and dicers of the data were looking for a deceleration in the core data rather than the acceleration we got. That has me leaning for a slightly softer release tomorrow. But I am far more interested in the nature of the market reaction. As I have discussed the last couple of days on the Saxo Market Call podcast, I find the most interesting test for the US dollar one in which we see inflation decelerating and US treasury yields perhaps easing a bit lower, but in which we also see risk sentiment weak as equity and bond markets are starting to decouple, as equities begin to fret recession rather than being merely led around by the nose by the treasury market. If that is the scenario we get and the USD weakens, then I think USD weakness can extend a bit more forcefully for a time, if not, then the USD could yet reject this breakdown attempt. I withhold judgement for now, as the USD has not yet broken down. But the easiest thing to do is to simply judge what happens on the charts in the wake of the data release (not knee-jerk, but how the day closes), as we have a number of clear-cut levels in play for the major USD pairs. Chart: USDJPY USDJPY has traditionally been a strong focus over US data surprises over the years and will be in focus with the macro event risk of the week, if not the month, coming up tomorrow in the form of the US October CPI release. Reaction in yields and risk sentiment are both worth watching as I have cooked up some thoughts of late (see above) on whether US treasury markets and equity markets could move out of correlation, i.e., that risk sentiment may have a hard time celebrating a drop in treasury yields. So, a weaker than expected US CPI report together with falling treasury yields, but also together with weak risk sentiment could provide the strongest support for the JPY here in a broad sense, though it might be felt more forcefully in JPY crosses. Regardless, if the JPY finds bids tomorrow, the 145.00 level will be a huge focus in USDJPY. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The USD is clearly down, but will only be out on sticking further weakness in the wake of the US CPI release tomorrow. Elsewhere, note the sterling momentum turning badly south and SEK trying to look higher, not a surprise given European equities having rallied vertically for weeks – looking a bit much. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.EURGBP is one to focus on around the 0.8800 level. JPY crosses are interesting in places as well as yields have consolidated a bit lower – look at the 165 area in GBPJPY, for example. But it is all about key USD levels after the US data tomorrow, including 1.0100 in EURUSD, 0.6522 in AUDUSD, etc… Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1200 – Mexico Oct. CPI 1300 – UK Bank of England’s Haskel to speak 1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 1630 – UK Bank of England’s Cunliffe to speak 1700 – World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) 0001 – UK Oct. RICS House Price Balance 0100 – US Fed’s Kashkari (Voter 2023) to speak   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-usd-on-edge-ahead-of-the-us-cpi-data-tomorrow-09112022

EUR/USD has reversed course today and is in negative territory. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0043, down 0.30%. US dollar bounces back The US dollar has rebounded after a 3-day slide against the major currencies. The dollar downswing started on Friday after a lukewarm employment report raised expectations that the Fed will deliver a “modest” 50-basis point, rather than a 75 bp move at the December meeting. This was followed by a short covering move on Monday which sent the dollar sharply lower, as risk appetite jumped ahead of the US midterms and Thursday’s inflation report. The euro made the most of the dollar’s weakness, rising 250 points in an impressive 3-day rally. The US dollar has rebounded against the majors today, including the euro. With the Federal Reserve remaining aggressive, even a 0.50% should be enough to give the dollar a boost, as rate differentials continue to widen. Inflation is running at a double-digit clip in the eurozone, but it’s doubtful that the ECB will keep pace with the Fed, as the eurozone economy remains weak and higher rates are likely to tip the economy into a recession. The markets are keeping an eye on the US midterm elections, which are tighter than expected, as the Democrats are fighting to retain control of both the House and the Senate. Investors are focussing on Thursday’s October US inflation report, which will be a key factor in Fed rate policy. Inflation is expected to have eased slightly, with headline inflation dropping to 8.0% (8.2% prior) and core inflation slowing to 6.5% (6.6%).  A drop in the October reading will raise expectations for the Fed to raise rates by 0.50% at the December meeting. EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0134 and 1.0293 There is support at 1.0047 and 0.9888 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Euro backtracks after strong rally - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The dollar index regained positions above 110.00 on Wednesday. Investors are evaluating the results of a tougher-than-expected midterm election. The Republicans are in the lead, but not as confidently as expected. It may take a second round to determine the winner. The Democrats have failed. However, there is nothing surprising. Historically, events since the Second World War have developed in this way. In the middle of the presidential term, the party of the current head of the United States loses seats in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. Analysts initially said that the Joe Biden administration was not among the rare lucky ones. And so it happened. Despite the fact that the Republicans failed to fully implement their plans, their party is likely to take control of the House of Representatives, which, according to analysts, may support the dollar in the short term. However, how the US currency ends the week will ultimately depend on the results of the inflation report on Thursday. A key catalyst for the markets is the October CPI report, which will provide insight into the Federal Reserve's rate. Money markets are currently pricing in a more moderate 50 basis point rate hike in December. However, a hotter-than-expected inflation report could spur bets on another 75 bps hike. Until the release of the data, investors will continue to follow the news feed on the elections, although this is not such a significant topic for them. Markets are more likely to fill the gap until the next really important event. Elections are a minor factor influencing the outlook for the dollar, however, they may have some implications for price action in the short term. This is what happened on Wednesday. If the weekly close is below 110.05, then analysts will have another reason to start talking about the formation of the top for the US currency index. While it is too early to talk about it, we are waiting for the CPI. "The first results of the midterm elections indicate that the Republican wave is unlikely to materialize. The most likely outcome will be a split in Congress, with Republicans seizing power in the House of Representatives and Democrats retaining the Senate. If the result is confirmed by the final vote count, Joe Biden will have to resort to executive orders, as his legislative powers will be severely curtailed," UniCredit Bank notes. The split between the government and Congress is more of a market story next year, when debt ceiling concerns resurface. "If the Democrats still surprise the world and hold the House of Representatives, it will be negative for the dollar, but not more than 1% on the index," economists believe. Dollar 2023 The dollar has shown a breathtaking rally this year. The US currency index reached levels not seen in more than 20 years. Since the beginning of the year, it is up 13% against the euro, 17% against the pound and 22% against the yen. This has important implications for international portfolios and, since it is the world's reserve currency, also for global financial conditions. And the reason for this is higher interest rates, the Fed's hawkish attitude, the strong economic outlook, and the unwillingness of investors to take risks. A weaker dollar will weaken financial conditions and increase global risks. For this to happen, an improvement in global economic growth prospects will be required to begin with. An important component of the end of the dollar growth is the end of the cycle of rate hikes. Given these two factors, it is reasonable to assume further growth of the dollar in 2023. Some central banks have recently slowed down their rate hikes. The Fed, unlike them, focuses solely on inflation and plans to raise rates above 5%. Higher US rates continue to attract global capital flows seeking higher returns. As global economic risks emerge or continue, the dollar is likely to remain the best safe haven. Although it may peak when the Fed eventually slows down its policy of tightening monetary policy. This alone may not be enough to cause a significant depreciation of the dollar. Although there are doubts about the forecasts for further growth of the dollar, the driving forces of its strength have not yet been exhausted.     Relevance up to 21:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/326705

Today's focus will be the October US CPI release which will have implications for Fed policy, risk assets and the dollar. News from Canada that a mortgage investment fund is suspending redemptions could also be a first signal of the cross-over from higher interest rates to financial stability risk. We would continue to favour the dollar USD: What has core inflation got to say? At last month's FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell concluded the press conference with a sense of frustration that inflation had not fallen more quickly. Inflation data understandably is now one of the biggest market movers of the month and today sees the US October CPI release. Headline inflation is expected to dip to 7.9% from 8.2% year-on-year, but the market's focus will be on the core rate - i.e. what is happening to underlying prices outside of food and energy. Here, the market will be looking at the core monthly figure - expected at 0.5% after two months at 0.6% month-on-month. Our US economist, James Knightley, favours a 0.5% core MoM figure, with the range of analyst expectations stretching from 0.3% to 0.6%. James says medical costs have been generating upside pressure of late, but that pressure could start to ebb. Elsewhere, core goods prices are being lowered by falling freight costs, the strong dollar, and weakening demand, while used car prices should fall and anecdotal evidence of rent declines is spreading. However, as Chair Powell noted last month, the point when rents start dragging down core CPI may be some time off. Today's release will have some bearing on what the market prices for the Fed meeting on 14 December, where a 56bp rate increase is currently priced. Today's CPI data will not be the final say on that decision (we have jobs data and another CPI release before then), but it can set the tone regarding the Fed's comfort level. Expect the dollar and the positively correlated bond and equity markets to trade off today's data - where any upside surprise could do some damage to the recent benign risk environment and end the recent correction in the dollar. Separately, an item catching our attention was that a Canadian fund, the Rompsen Mortgage Investment Fund, had halted redemptions since 'loan payoff activity remains suppressed'. The real estate sector is on the front line when it comes to aggressive rate increases and we wonder whether investors will view this as one of the first casualties and a possible cross-over from macro risk (recession) to financial stability risk. Let's see how the Canadian dollar deals with the news today and whether any pressure builds on those currencies normally associated with stretched housing markets, which beyond Canada are normally seen as those in Scandinavia. DXY to trade 109.50-110.50 range, with a slight upside bias. Chris Turner EUR: Rangebound EUR/USD continues to drift towards the upper end of recent ranges. As above, the US inflation data will be a key driver. Despite the recent recovery in equities, the external environment is still mixed, including lockdowns spreading across China. For today, the eurozone data calendar is light and we have a few European Central Bank speakers at an event at 14CET. The market is currently split on whether the ECB hikes 50bp or 75bp at the 15 December meeting. Our team favours 50bp. Today's US data is big enough to put an end to the recent EUR/USD correction - should inflation surprise on the upside.  Chris Turner GBP: House prices starting to feel the crunch Earlier today we saw the RICS house price balance data for October. UK estate agents now see house prices declining for the first time since the summer of 2020 - a clear response to the recent surge in mortgage rates. This will again question the market's pricing of the Bank of England's tightening cycle, where we think rates priced at 4.65% next summer are way too high. Sterling saw a big intra-day sell-off yesterday - which looked more flow than macro-driven. 1.1150 is a clear target for GBP/USD were the dollar to strengthen today. Again, we doubt any gains over 1.15 endure. Chris Turner CEE: Czech inflation to test CNB new forecast Today, we will see inflation data for October in the Czech Republic. We expect a further rise from 18.0% to 18.2% YoY. However, the main issue, as in recent months, is energy prices and since October the impact of government measures on CPI. The unclear approach of the statistical office is reflected in the extremely wide range of surveys from 17.2% to 19.0% YoY. The Czech National Bank expects a decline to 17.4% YoY. However, it is clear that we can expect surprises on both sides. We believe the CNB has a solid buffer for upside surprises and any market bets on additional central bank rate hikes would be short-lived. The Czech koruna has been moving to stronger levels since the November meeting and briefly touched its strongest levels since the beginning of February. Higher inflation should again support the interest rate differential and keep the koruna at its current strong levels.  Later today, National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapinski is set to speak in a press conference after the Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 6.75% yesterday, against the consensus of a 25 basis point hike. The central bank's new forecast brought lower economic growth and also higher inflation, especially next year. The post-meeting statement indicates that the NBP targets a reversal of the inflation trend and wants to facilitate a soft landing for the economy rather than bring inflation down to 2.5% as quickly as possible. Today we will hear more details of the governor's view and what we can expect next from the NBP. As we mentioned earlier, we see the zloty as vulnerable and just yesterday it lost 0.9% against the euro. We expect it to continue to trade above 4.75 EUR/PLN today.  Frantisek Taborsky  Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Pollsters indicated the US mid-term elections were all about the economy and inflation, but a focus on social issues resonated and helped Democrats outperform expectations. They could even remain in control of the Senate, but the likely loss of the House will make President Biden's job more challenging and will limit his economic policy options President Biden and his wife, Jill, campaigning at a Democrat rally in Maryland earlier this week Closer than thought, but Republicans still likely to win the House Heading into the mid-term elections there was lots of focus on crime, health care, abortion rights and the future of democracy, but polls repeatedly showed that it was inflation and the impact on household finances that was at the top of voters’ minds. It was also thought that President Biden’s personal approval rating, at just 40% it’s the lowest of any incumbent President heading into their first mid-term election, would be toxic for the Democrat vote. Commentators and betting markets had the Republicans taking control of the House of Representatives by a healthy margin while the Senate could also have come under their control. There doesn't appear to be a high success rate for the Donald Trump-endorsed candidates The results so far suggest it is much closer. While the Republicans are still favoured to win control of the House, it will be by a much smaller margin than envisaged – NBC's Decision Desk is projecting 222 Republican House seats to 213 for the Democrats. In the Senate, the Democrats managed to flip Pennsylvania after John Fetterman defeated Donald Trump-backed Mehmet Oz. This means for the Republicans to win the Senate they need to take two of the “toss-up” seats from the Democrats in Nevada and Georgia – in Nevada the Republican candidate is narrowly ahead, but in Georgia, the Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock is ahead. That said, it could be several days for a winner to be declared in Nevada given "floods" of mail-in ballots, while Georgia’s election law requires the winner to take 50%+1 vote, meaning a run-off on December 6. One of the key takeaways is that there doesn't appear to be a high success rate for the Donald Trump-endorsed candidates and given the Republicans' strong showing in Florida this could give the state's Governor Ron DeSantis' campaign to be the Republican candidate in 2024 a major boost. A President constrained So what does this all mean? Well, President Biden struggled to pass legislation when he had a Democrat majority in both the House and the Senate (via Vice-President Kamala Harris’s deciding vote). Without a majority in Congress, as seems likely, it is nigh on impossible. Intense partisanship with just two years to go until the next presidential elections means major legislation is unlikely to pass unless there is a national emergency. President Biden’s legislative actions are therefore likely going to be limited to the use of executive orders and actions to circumvent Congress, where allowed. This is a much more limited form of government. For example, the president cannot use an executive order to change taxes because that power is held by Congress. Consequently, President Biden’s focus may have to focus on tinkering with social policy via Executive Orders with a broader shift towards international relations and trade policy where the president is less constrained by Congress. Republican Ron DeSantis celebrates his second election win as Governor of the State of Florida The economic implications It appears that investors were positioning for a stock market rally in recent days, but this has been undermined by the latest negative crypto headlines. A rally typically has happened after mid-term elections which result in a split Congress, largely on the rationale that it diminishes the prospect of painful new regulations and leaves corporates to focus on what they do best. But with the recessionary forces building, any bounce might not last long. Moreover, given that the fear of recession is rising, there would typically be an expectation of some government efforts to support households and businesses, but the President will have less scope to offer fiscal support given the requirement of having Republican legislators on board. This suggests that once inflation is under control, the onus is going to be on the Federal Reserve to offer stimulus to the economy. This is consistent with our base case forecast for interest rate cuts from the second half of 2023 onwards. A split Congress will raise issues about what happens surrounding the debt ceiling Perhaps more significantly for fiscal policy, a split Congress will raise issues about what happens surrounding the debt ceiling, which is currently $31.381tn and is on track to be breached at some point in the third quarter of next year; to read up on the background, click here. This is the “limit on the total amount of money the United States government is authorised to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations”. Failure to raise the limit in time would cause the government to default and would have dire consequences for global markets and the global economy. In the absence of an agreement, we can expect to see the government take extraordinary measures to delay default, including putting non-essential Federal government workers on furlough with key parts of the government shut down until sense prevails and an agreement to raise the limit is reached. Republicans may use a House majority (and potential Senate majority) to push for tough policy concessions from President Biden before they sanction the debt limit’s increase. Many Republicans have argued that government needs to contribute to directly lowering inflation with several pushing for government spending and hiring freezes and some demanding outright spending cuts. This is not something President Biden will readily accept. We could see extreme brinkmanship, economic disruption and higher government borrowing costs at a time when the economy is potentially in recession next year. Together with our expectation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, this would likely lead to the dollar coming under some significant downward pressure in the second half of 2023. What it means for 2024 The likely loss of the House may lead some Democrats to question whether President Biden is the best person to lead the party into the next election, although those calls will be muted given the better-than-expected Democrat vote so far. Moreover, only three out of the last 22 mid-term elections have seen the incumbent president’s party make gains in the House with the median loss since 1934 being 28 seats. At the time of writing it appears this mid-term election will see the best performance for an incumbent President’s party since George W Bush’s Republicans made a gain of eight seats in 2002. The lack of a credible alternative favours Biden standing again and defeating any Democrat challenger.  The last time an incumbent President was seriously challenged by someone within his own party was in 1992 when President George HW Bush convincingly saw off Pat Buchanan. Donald Trump has strongly hinted that he will formally announce he is running for president Donald Trump has strongly hinted that he will formally announce he is running for president on November 15, setting us up for a re-run of the 2020 contest. That won’t deter other Republicans from throwing their hat into the ring with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ very strong performance in his gubernatorial contest boosting his credentials while the mixed showing for Trump’s favoured picks in the mid-terms could raise doubts over whether he is the candidate most likely to win. However, at this very early stage polls amongst Republican supporters suggest Trump is well out in first place (on just under 50% versus DeSantis's mid-20s polling for the Republican Presidential candidate). With control of the House, Republicans gain congressional investigative powers, with some on the right already proposing looking into the president’s son, Hunter Biden’s, business dealings. They can also stall or disband other inquiries, including the committee investigation into the 6 January insurrection. President Trump’s backers could also call for investigations into the FBI search at Mar-a-Lago, all of which could cause major headaches/distractions for President Biden Also, over the coming days, we should watch for how some of the “election denier” Republican candidates do in some of the key local state official races. Some of these roles have influence over election processes and the certification of results so if you thought the 2020 election was angry and contentious, just wait for 2024… Read this article on THINK TagsUS Trump Mid-terms Election Biden Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Today, the dollar continues to recover after a strong fall the day before, provoked by mixed data from the US labor market, published last week. The dollar index (DXY) is growing today for the second day in a row while market participants are assessing the results of the midterm elections to the US Congress and are preparing for the publication of updated data on inflation in the US today. These can significantly affect the Fed and the dynamics of the dollar. Economists assume that the annual CPI fell in October from 8.2% to 8.0% and the base CPI from 6.6% to 6.5%. If the data really indicate a slowdown in inflation, the Fed may begin to slow down the pace of tightening its policy, raising the interest rate in December by 0.50% and not by 0.75%, as before. It is noteworthy that New York Fed President John Williams recently said that long-term inflation expectations have stabilized at levels close to the target level. At the same time, in monthly terms, CPI values may indicate an increase in inflation. It will probably be difficult to say how the market will react to this, given the annual slowdown in inflation. One way or another, the inflation rate remains four times higher than the Fed's target level, and this forces the heads of the US central bank to still adhere to a strict approach in determining the parameters of monetary policy. Statistics on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will also be published today (at 13:30 GMT). The number of initial claims for benefits may increase slightly to 220,000 from 217,000 a week earlier. Although this is a minor change, it can negatively affect the dollar: the Fed has repeatedly linked monetary policy parameters with the state of the labor market in the country. The pace of monetary tightening may slow down if labor market indicators help. Tomorrow, the US and Canada are celebrating national holidays, American banks and stock exchanges will be closed, and on the eve of the long weekend, strong movements may be observed in the market, provoked by the fixation of some of the trading positions of traders. Considering all these, it is necessary to be prepared for just such a scenario of today's American trading session. Returning to the dynamics of the dollar index (reflected as CFD #USDX in the MT4 trading terminal), as of writing, DXY futures are trading near 110.46, still maintaining negative dynamics and moving in the lower part of the descending channel that was newly formed last month (on the DXY chart). If today's publication of US inflation data disappoints investors, it will provoke a new wave of dollar sales and a drop in DXY towards 109.00. In an alternative scenario, a breakout of the 111.00 round level will trigger a stronger movement of DXY upward.   Relevance up to 11:00 2022-11-11 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/326775

US core inflation has risen by only 0.3% in October, a welcome relief. Markets are set to reprice the Fed peak rate and rally. The bank's next rate decision hinges on another CPI report. Democrats must be frustrated – US inflation has finally dropped significantly, but this report came after the elections. But we are not here to talk about the mid-terms– which had little impact on investors – but about the next moves in markets. In short: the party will likely continue. The US Core Consumer Price Index rose by only 0.3% in October, half of September's rise and below 0.5% expected. The YoY figure advanced by only 6.3% vs. the 6.6% predicted. This is a notable fall. In addition, headline CPI decelerated to 7.7%, which is good news for consumers. However, an equal slowdown in Core CPI was also seen in July. When that figure rose by 0.3%, markets rallied, but then faced two consecutive jumps of 0.6%. In short – this could still be a one-off. Higher rental prices take time to reach official statistics, and demand for other services such as flights remains robust. The unsnarling of supply chains and a cooldown in shopping of goods is behind the recent drop. The current party in stock markets and the decline in the Dollar will likely continue. The data is probably sufficient to cement a 50 bps hike in December, a step down after four consecutive 75 bps hikes. But what's next? It is essential to remember that Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the peak interest rate would be higher than 1) What the bank previously expected 2) What markets expected. Beyond December, the Fed could still raise rates, hit a high peak above 5% and hold it there for a long time. The next CPI report is published on December 13, and the Fed announces its decision on December 14. A swing back to a strong inflation read – October could be a one-off like July – would change matters significantly. A 50 bps hike in December would be accompanied by forecasts for higher rates. Enjoy the party, but remember to lock at the clock.

USDCAD has witnessed barricades around 1.3350 amid positive market sentiment. Loonie bulls are supported by BOC’s hawkish commentary and a recovery in oil prices. Going forward, US long-term inflation report will be of utmost importance. The USDCAD pair has sensed selling pressure around 1.3350 in the Tokyo session after attempting a pullback move around 1.3300. The asset has turned sideways which indicates further inventory distribution, which will deliver more weakness in the counter. Meanwhile, the risk profile has strengthened further as S&P500 futures are extending their gains post a bumper rally on Thursday. The US dollar index (DXY) has refreshed its day’s low at 108.00 and is expected to display more downside ahead. A sheer decline in US inflation brought a bloodbath in US government bonds. The 10-year US Treasury yields dropped to 3.8% as chances from the CME FedWatch tool claim that 75 basis points (bps) rate hike is losing its stream now. Going forward, investors will focus on long-term US inflation expectations. The US economy is needed to pass this test too as an increment in the longer-term inflation indicator may spoil the party for risk-perceived assets. The Fed has been continuously reiterating that their long-term inflation expectations are well-anchored at around 2%. And, previously the economic data landed at 2.9%. Meanwhile, Loonie bulls are supported by a hawkish commentary from the Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem and a decent recovery in the oil prices. BOC Governor cited that “Canadians should expect even more rate hikes to come on top of six that have already happened this year,” during an interview with CBC News in the late New York session. He further added that layoffs will increase, the growth rate may come to zero in the next few quarters, and the central bank is fine with a mild recession as a price to bring down inflation to desired levels. Oil prices have rebounded as a decline in US inflation has trimmed the risk of recession. A slowdown in the rate hike pace by the Fed may bring a recovery in the scale of economic activities, which will eventually accelerate oil demand ahead.

USDCAD has sensed buying interest around 1.3250 as DXY rebounds ahead of US midterm elections outcome. The change of the House of Representatives' stewardship to Republicans will dampen expansionary policies. Loonie investors are eyeing the release of the inflation figures. The USDCAD pair is displaying a rangebound structure after gauging the cushion around 1.3250 in the Tokyo session. The risk-on impulse has started fading led by rising volatility ahead of the outcome of the US midterm elections and the extended weekend due to the Veterans Day holiday last Friday. The risk-sensitive currencies are facing a loss in the upside momentum. Anxiety ahead of the US midterm elections has weighed on S&P500 futures. The changing hands of stewardship for the House of Representatives will impact the expansionary policies as additional approval from Republicans will stretch the time for policy execution. Investors have turned anxious as the occurrence could trim economic projections ahead in already vulnerable times when the US economy is subject to recession due to accelerating interest rates. The US dollar index (DXY) has extended its pullback move to near 107.00 despite the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) won’t go for hefty rate hikes as red-hot inflation has cooled down. Also, the long-term US Treasury yields have rebounded to near 3.90%. Meanwhile, Loonie investors are awaiting Wednesday’s inflation numbers for further guidance. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is seen marginally higher at 7.0% vs. the prior release of 6.9%. While the core CPI that excludes oil and food prices is seen at 6.3%, higher than the prior release of 6.0%. On the oil front, oil prices have dropped after facing barricades of around $89.00 despite easing Covid-19 restrictions in China. It seems that oil bulls need some solid reasoning for extending its recent rally further.

Last week, the US dollar experienced its biggest weekly drop in 2022. The weakness of the dollar last week amounted to 78.15%. Why did the US dollar fall so much? The dollar index was created in 1973 to measure the value of the US dollar against other major world currencies. The dollar index is compared to a basket of six foreign currencies, with each currency assigned a different weight. The six foreign currencies used to value the dollar index are the euro 58%, the Japanese yen 14%, the British pound 12%, the Canadian dollar 9%, the Swedish krona 4% and the Swiss franc 4% of the weight. One of the components that affect the change in the value of the US dollar is the income from the purchase of treasury bonds. The dollar is very sensitive to the yield of US debt instruments such as 30-year Treasury bonds or 10-year bills. As U.S. bond yields rise, this attracts foreign investment in favorable-yielding fixed assets that require dollars to purchase, thereby raising the value of the dollar index. In turn, when yields on US bonds and bills fall, this causes a reversal as the dollar loses value as foreign investors reallocate investments in US debt instruments to other fixed assets offering favorable returns. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the October CPI rose just 7.7% YoY. This was the lowest value of the consumer price index since January of this year, when the CPI was 7.5%. The weakness of the dollar last week amounted to 78.15%. Why did the US dollar fall so much? The dollar index was created in 1973 to measure the value of the US dollar against other major world currencies. The dollar index is compared to a basket of six foreign currencies, with each currency assigned a different weight. The six foreign currencies used to value the dollar index are the euro 58%, the Japanese yen 14%, the British pound 12%, the Canadian dollar 9%, the Swedish krona 4% and the Swiss franc 4% of the weight. One of the components that affect the change in the value of the US dollar is the income from the purchase of treasury bonds. The dollar is very sensitive to the yield of US debt instruments such as 30-year Treasury bonds or 10-year bills. As US bond yields rise, this attracts foreign investment in favorable-yielding fixed assets that require dollars to purchase, thereby raising the value of the dollar index. In turn, when yields on US bonds and bills fall, this causes a reversal as the dollar loses value as foreign investors reallocate investments in US debt instruments to other fixed assets offering favorable returns. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the October CPI rose just 7.7% YoY. This was the lowest value of the consumer price index since January of this year, when the CPI was 7.5%.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-11-17 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/327024

The dollar index lost 4% last week, the most significant drop since March 2020. Such powerful moves against the trend often signal a further trend reversal. However, it will probably be a slower pace of decline and not a one-way street as we see it over the previous ten days. Speculation about Fed decision The pressure on the dollar has intensified over the past two weeks on speculation that the Fed will slow down the pace of policy tightening and that the maximum interest rate in this monetary cycle could be lower than previously feared. Signals from Fed members and slower-than-forecast inflation supported this view, triggering a wave of demand for risky assets. At the same time, monetary regulators in other countries were in no hurry to soften their rhetoric, returning markets to a familiar situation where the Fed acts first and more aggressively than its peers in lowering and raising rates. But overall, it does not stand out for any rigidity. Eurozone The monetary watchdogs in the Eurozone have continued to signal in recent weeks that they are prepared to maintain the high speed of rate hikes, which fed their purchases in the Euro. That pressure could be fuelled by sales of dollar assets from the reserves of the SNB and the BoJ. USD/CHF and USD/JPY USDCHF and USDJPY returned under the emotionally significant levels of 1.0 and 150, attracting market-oriented and trend-following participants' interest. Dollar Index The nearest target for the Dollar Index correction is 105, actively operating as a resistance and support between May and August. This is also where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 2021-2022 comes in. A decisive failure below would confirm that we see the Dollar moving into a decline and not just a correction in a long-term uptrend. In this scenario, the Dollar Index heads into the 90-100 area, where it has been comfortable since 2015, with a potential pullback to the upper bound of this range in the first quarter of 2023. History History has other examples. In late 2008, two weeks of a significant sell-off in the dollar were followed by three months of gains, and the DXY rewrote local highs, finally reversing only in March 2009. However, it is essential to remember that in both March 2020 and March 2009, the EUR reversal was sustained when supported by the equity market surge we also witnessed last week.

The news that markets had been desperately hoping for finally arrived last week. Inflation in the US came out lower than expected, US rates dropped the most since the pandemic era and risk assets worldwide soared in jubilation. The dollar experienced one of the sharpests two-day falls in history, falling anywhere from nearly 6% (against the Japanese yen) to just under two percent (against the Canadian dollar, the week’s second-worst performer). Emerging market currencies also rose. The notable exception was the Brazilian real, where markets had a brutal reaction to a Lula speech suggesting that he favours Truss-style unfunded spending.   This week the focus will be on a raft of inflation reports for the month of October in several G10 countries including Sweden, Canada, the UK, and Japan. These will be scrutinised for signs that inflation is peaking, though we think that the positive surprise out of the US last week cannot be extrapolated to other economic areas. We will also be paying attention to two scheduled speeches from ECB President Lagarde. For now, the relentless dollar rally appears to have peaked, and the path of least resistance for the greenback may be down in the short-term. Figure 1: G10 FX Performance Tracker [base: USD] (1 week) Source: Refinitiv Datastream Date: 14/11/2022 British pound Last week’s third-quarter GDP report had mixed news. It was better than expected, but still negative. This means the UK may be in a technical recession already, albeit so far the numbers are consistent with a short, shallow one. Figure 2: UK GDP Growth Rate [MoM] (2013 – 2022) Source: Refinitiv Datastream Date: 14/11/2022 This week will be an intense one for data out of the UK. The employment report on Tuesday will be followed by the inflation data on Wednesday. The former is expected to show strong payrolls growth for October. The latter, steady core inflation well above 6%. Technical recession or not, we do not think that the Bank of England can afford to stop tightening any time soon given this backdrop, and expect a higher terminal rate than markets do. The unveiling of the UK government’s fiscal plan on Thursday could also garner some attention. Euro No news of any importance out of the Eurozone last week left the euro to trade mostly off events taking place elsewhere, notably the US inflation report. That said, we did get a handful of ECB member speeches, which mostly struck a hawkish tone, suggesting that there will be no let up in rate hikes just yet. Further news suggesting that China may ease COVID restrictions, which would stoke appetite for European exports there, also buoyed the common currency to a near 4% rise against the dollar. We still see market pricing for European terminal rates way too low and out of touch with economic reality and the relentless rise in inflation. Lagarde has two opportunities to jawbone these rates higher, one of Wednesday and another Friday. There will be little else to move markets in the Eurozone this week. US dollar One swallow does not a summer make, but the October inflation report was good news and was justly celebrated by markets as such. Goods prices came in lower than expected and drove both the core and headline numbers down from the previous month. The headline number has now been falling for some months, and while the more important core index is not yet falling, neither is it rising. Figure 3: US Inflation Rate (2012 – 2022) Source: Refinitiv Datastream Date: 14/11/2022 This week will be light in terms of data out of the US, but we will be getting a surfeit of Fed speeches, no fewer than seven in all. Markets will eagerly read them for hints on the impact of last week’s inflation report on Fed expectations for the December hike and the terminal Fed Funds rate. Japanese yen We’ve seen a quite remarkable reversal of fortune for the yen in the past few weeks. The yen was the best performer in the G10 last week, ending it around 6% higher on the dollar – the largest one-week move in the USD/JPY pair since 1998. While most of the rally was driven by broad weakness in the US dollar, the already suppressed valuation of the yen provided room for an outperformance. A possible dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve is also disproportionately bullish for JPY, given that the Bank of Japan is the only central bank in the G10 not to be engaging in a tightening cycle of its own. Attention this week may turn to macroeconomic news, with a number of data releases on tap. We will be paying close attention to the Q3 GDP print (Monday), trade data (Wednesday) and inflation report (Thursday). Swiss franc The Swiss franc was one of the best-performing G10 currencies last week, rallying on Friday after hawkish remarks from SNB chairman Thomas Jordan. Jordan stated that the bank is ready to take ‘all measures necessary’ to achieve price stability. Moreover he said that current monetary policy settings are ‘not sufficiently restrictive’ in order to bring inflation back towards the central bank’s target. He also confirmed that the bank remained able to sell its FX reserves as part of its policy efforts. Jordan’s hawkish rhetoric all but guarantees another interest rate hike in December, although the size of the move is more of an open question. At present, we’re leaning towards another 50 basis point hike. In the coming days, we’ll continue to focus on additional communications from the SNB, with a handful of speeches from officials scheduled this week. Aussie Signs of an easing in the Chinese government’s stance towards ‘zero-covid’ provided an element of assistance for the Australian dollar last week, though the extent of the move higher in the AUD/USD pair was still driven almost entirely by the soft US inflation print. As one of the higher-risk currencies in the G10, AUD should have been near the top of the performance tracker, though the recent dovish shift from the Reserve Bank of Australia means that the currency would receive less support from a narrowing in US rate differentials. Deputy governor Bullock reaffirmed this stance last week, noting that the bank was nearing the point where it could pause the hike cycle. We don’t necessarily expect this week’s RBA meeting minutes (Tuesday) to rock the boat, as expectations for anything other than 25bp hikes going forward are very low. The October labour report on Thursday may prove more of a market mover. Economists expect a solid rebound in job creation following the weak September data (+15k consensus), which would likely support the case for additional modest tightening in RBA monetary policy. New Zealand dollar The New Zealand dollar underperformed its antipodean G10 counterpart last week, which we can only really ascribe to the recent strong rally in the kiwi that left it trading at a near seven-month high on the Aussie dollar. There wasn’t too much domestic news to report last week, though the latest manufacturing PMI did raise a few alarm bells over the state of the New Zealand economy. The October index fell below the critical level of 50, separating expansion from contraction, for the first time since August 2021. Q3 producer price inflation data will be released on Thursday in another otherwise quiet week. The key for the New Zealand dollar in the coming days will continue to be market expectations for the next RBNZ meeting on 23rd November. Investors remain torn between a 50bp and 75bp rate hike, and will be looking for news in the interim that may support either argument. Canadian dollar CAD continues to trade in much closer lockstep with the US dollar than any other currency in the G10, outperforming during periods of USD strength, and underperforming when the greenback deprecates. This was very much evident last week as, aside from the USD, the Canadian dollar ended at the bottom of the pack among the major currencies. Remarks from Bank of Canada governor Macklem were largely ignored on Thursday. Macklem said that more rate hikes were on the way, while warning that a recession and an increase in layoffs may be a price to pay for bringing down inflation. This week will be all about Wednesday’s inflation report. Economists are pencilling in an easing the headline number to 6.9% (from 7%), but an increase in core inflation to 6.3% (from 6%). An acceleration in the latter could bring another 50bp hike into view at the December BoC meeting, which would be bullish for CAD. At the time of writing, markets only see around a one-in-four possibility of such a move. Swedish krona As one of the higher-risk currencies in the G10, the improvement in investor appetite for risk, due to the relaxation of some of the restrictions to curb covid in China and expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve, benefited the Swedish krona disproportionally last week. As a consequence, SEK rose by around 1.5% against the euro and 5% against the dollar. The focus this week will return to inflation, with the October CPI and CPIF reports set to be released on Tuesday. While the former is expected to continue on its upward trend, the latter (the Riksbank’s preferred measure of inflation), is projected to ease from September’s thirty-year high. Any surprises to the upside in either, notably the CPIF report, could heap additional pressure on the Riksbank to continue raising interest rates aggressively, just ahead of its November meeting next week. Norwegian krone The Norwegian krone ended last week almost unchanged against the euro, but in line with other risk assets, it appreciated strongly against the dollar. Inflation data continues to be one of the main drivers in FX markets. Norway’s October inflation data was released last week, and unlike in the US, it again surprised to the upside. Headline inflation rose sharply to 7.5% in October, from 6.9% in September, and above market expectation (7.1%) – its highest rate in 35 years. The core inflation rate, arguably of even greater importance, also broke to a new record high 5.9%. Figure 4: Norway Inflation Rate (2013 – 2022) Source: Refinitiv Datastream Date: 14/11/2022 The lack of a peak in domestic price pressures will provide a big headache for policymakers at Norges Bank, which may now have to raise rates higher and deeper into next year than currently expected, which could support the krone. Third quarter GDP data will be released on Friday. We will be paying special attention to this print, as Norges bank’s dovish pivot was due to risks to growth. Chinese yuan The Chinese yuan has managed to rally against the US dollar in the past few days, rising to its strongest position since September. US inflation news has certainly helped, as the expected gap between US and Chinese monetary policy has narrowed. An easing of some of the country’s covid restrictions on Friday, including a shortening of quarantine periods and a reduction in contract-tracing efforts, have further supported the yuan. The above changes mark a significant shift in China’s approach towards the pandemic, and have raised hopes that the economy will have more breathing room as the country continues its efforts to combat the virus. That said, these steps are small ones, and authorities have emphasised that zero-Covid remains in place. Infections in China are on the rise and Beijing and a number of other key cities have seen record numbers of new cases in the past few days. In addition to covid, we’ll focus on headlines from the Biden-Xi meeting in Bali today and hard data releases, out on Tuesday. The PBoC will also set the MLF rate that day, albeit no change in rates is expected, even with inflation surprising to the downside last week (2.1% in October). Economic Calendar (14/11/2022 – 18/11/2022) To stay up to date with our publications, please choose one of the below: 📩 Click here to receive the latest market updates👉 Our LinkedIn page for the latest news✍️ Our Blog page for other FX market reports 🔊 Stay up to date with our podcast FXTalk   Read the article on Ebury

14 November 2022 Are we there yet? Falling inflation pops up risk assets GBPUSD awaits budget catalystThe pound edges higher as Britain may look to restore markets’ confidence with a new budget. Sterling has recouped losses from the September budget firesale. Traders are awaiting a new announcement while riding on the dollar’s softness. Heightened volatility could be expected this week as British finance minister Jeremy Hunt presents his plan to fill a £50 billion fiscal hole. After the market sanctioned Mr Kwarteng’s unfunded tax cuts, fiscal discipline with a mix of public spending cuts and tax rises would alleviate worries about Britain’s finances. 1.2300 is the next hurdle as the recovery goes on. 1.1150 is the closest support. USDJPY tumbles on lower inflationThe Japanese yen soared over the prospect of a narrowing interest differential with the US counterpart. Following months of parabolic ride, a weaker US CPI finally gave traders an excuse to exit an overcrowded trade. The market has been watching Japan's falling foreign reserves and pondering whether Tokyo would commit more of its war chest to prop up its currency. But now a greater fall than the one from Japanese authorities’ intervention indicates that prolonged weakness has released the reversal tension, making the yen the main beneficiary of the dollar’s retreat. 137.00 is the first support and 144.00 a fresh resistance. UKOIL struggles as China’s demand worriesOil markets cheered after China announced an easing of some of its COVID curbs. Brent crude has been going sideways over demand concerns. China’s zero-COVID policy and a resurgence in infections in major cities remain a thorny problem. Now that the manufacturing centre of Guangzhou has become ground zero, expectations of a slowdown in China’s activities and its appetite for the commodity put the buy side on the defensive. Meanwhile, global supply has kept up with US crude stocks surprisingly rising to a 16-month high. The supply demand imbalance may cap the price under 105.00. 84.00 is a key support to monitor. NAS 100 recovers on renewed Fed pivot hopesThe Nasdaq 100 bounced back as hopes of peaking inflation took a foothold. With US CPI coming in below 8% for the first time in eight months, investors have regained faith in a policy U-turn by the Fed sooner than later. Plunging Treasury yields suggests that the central bank could live with a 50bp rate hike in December, rather than a 75bp one. However, the bounce could be opportunistic as it might take multiple sets of data over the next few months to make the Fed change its mind. The pivot may only happen when there is a consistent deceleration in inflation. The index is heading towards 12800 with 10500 as a fresh support. Key data release (GMT time) Monday, 14 November BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings 23:50 Gross Domestic Product Tuesday, 15 November 00:30 RBA Meeting Minutes 07:00 ILO Unemployment Rate 10:00 Gross Domestic Product       Wednesday, 16 November 07:00 Consumer Price Index 13:30 Retail Sales BoC Consumer Price Index Core Thursday, 17 November 00:30 Unemployment Rate

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the latest surge in Covid cases in China, the modest relaxation of its zero-Covid policy, the OPEC+ report and the week ahead. Subscribe on Android This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Bond yields marched higher after Fed’s Waller said the Fed has ‘a ways to go’ before pausing their rate hiking cycle. ​ US stocks are declining after the latest Fed speak pushes back on the idea that the Fed is almost done hiking and after President Biden and Xi’s first in-person meeting delivered the standard rhetoric about avoiding a cold war. Obviously, this is just the beginning and the restart of talks between the world’s two largest economies, but it seems unlikely that we will see both sides cooperating anytime soon. ​ Whether or not things take a turn for the better or worse will hinge on Secretary of State Blinken’s trip to China. ​ Fed Fed’s Waller did his best to convince markets that rates will ‘keep going up’ despite prices cooling a lot faster than expected. The Fed’s mission is to push back on the market’s expectations that rates will get cut at the end of next year. ​ They want this round of hikes to not lose any effectiveness and we should anticipate that most Fed members will stick to the hawkish script this week. ​ Fed’s Brainard, who is clearly not on the hawkish side, noted that the Fed will probably ‘soon’ slow the pace of rate hikes. â€‹ Brainard noted that the inflation data was reassuring preliminary. â€‹ The Fed can’t afford to deliver any strong dovish hints as that will make their tightening of rates less effective with their battle against inflation. â€‹ Crypto Cryptocurrency traders are still saying What-the-FTX is happening? ​ Bitcoin and ethereum are hanging onto any broader risk appetite for dear life. A decent crypto rebound was forming but the rise in bond yields is seeing that earlier rally fade. ​ Much of the attention remains on FTX and Binance. â€‹ Binance is trying to create some buffers to help the industry in case it gets ugly again. â€‹ Binance CEO Zhao tweeted, “Binance is forming an industry recovery fund, to help projects who are otherwise strong, but in a liquidity crisis.” Cryptos rallied on Zhao’s tweet but it seems like an uphill battle on getting this fund up, especially considering all the scrutiny and eventual regulatory gauntlets that are coming to every major crypto exchange. ​ Fed’s Waller reminded traders that the United States is nowhere near developing an official digital version of the dollar. Waller’s pessimistic outlook for the digital dollar suggests cryptos should still have years before the government can reach agreement on how to turn their fiat digital. The rebound in crypto is looking as strong as the recent push higher with stocks. â€‹ Too much of Wall Street is turning defensive and that might make it difficult for some traders to test the crypto waters just yet. â€‹ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Yields rise on Fed speak, stocks edge lower, what-the-FTX is happening with cryptos? - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Technical outlook: The US dollar index has remained within a 100-point range between 105.80 and 106.80 levels in the past trading session. A bit of sideways action could be expected after prices dropped to 105.86 on Friday. A star Doji candlestick pattern was carved on the daily chart indicating a potential bullish price reversal ahead. A Morning Star could be completed today to confirm the same. The instrument is looking higher against the 105.86 mark. The US dollar index might have terminated its larger-degree corrective wave, which began from 114.67 earlier. The wave structure looks corrective between 114.67 and 105.86 levels, indicating at least a pullback rally if not a trend reversal. Potential targets for a pullback are pointing towards the 110.50-60 mark, going forward. The recent downswing, which could be worked upon is between 112.65 and 105.86 levels in the next few trading sessions. If prices manage to turn lower from 110.50, the drop could continue towards the next potential support seen around 104.30. Only a break above 112.65 will confirm that the larger-degree uptrend has resumed. Trading idea: Potential rally against 105.80. Good luck!   Relevance up to 03:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/300977

USDCAD comes under some renewed selling pressure on Tuesday amid modest USD weakness. Bearish crude oil prices might undermine the Loonie and help limit the downside for the major. Investors now look to the US macro data and speeches by FOMC members for a fresh impetus. The USDCAD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the 100-day SMA support and meets with a fresh supply near the 1.3325 area on Tuesday. The pair maintains its offered tone through the early European session and is currently placed near the daily low, around the 1.3285-1.3280 region. The US Dollar comes under some renewed selling pressure amid rising bets for a less aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. In fact, Fed fund futures are now pricing in a 91% chance of a 50 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in December. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, is seen as another factor weighing on the safe-haven buck and exerting some downward pressure on the USDCAD pair. The downside, however, seems cushioned in the wake of a mildly negative sentiment surrounding crude oil prices. Rising COVID-19 cases in China raise concerns about lower fuel consumption in the world's top crude oil importer. This comes after OPEC lowered its 2022 global demand forecast and continues to act as a headwind for the black liquid, which might undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and lend support to the USDCAD pair. The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders and positioning for a firm near-term direction. Traders now look to the US macro data - the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Producer Price Index (PPI). This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members and the US bond yields, will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, oil price dynamics should provide a fresh impetus to the USDCAD pair.  

Summary:  Today we note an indifferent session yesterday yielding to a strong session for sentiment overnight in Asia, perhaps in part from the friendly tone in the wake of the Biden-Xi summit yesterday, but also on stimulus hopes after weak Chinese data overnight. Elsewhere, we note the shift in attitude in the gold market as the USD remains very weak, with the latter trading at pivotal support areas in places. Wheat, crude oil, key semiconductor stocks to watch and upcoming earnings and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-nov-15-2022-15112022

Signs of optimism abound in global markets but caution remains. A Treasury short base explain the strength of the rally, but curve moves show the Fed’s cautious message has landed. Easing collateral scarcity in Europe means swap spreads could tighten alongside riskier bonds In this article A Treasury short base explain the post-CPI rally but markets remain cautious Less collateral stress means swap spreads can join the risk party Today’s events and market views A Treasury short base explain the post-CPI rally but markets remain cautious Even with Thursday’s post US CPI rally partially reversed, we find government bonds are at risk of a near-term retracement if US data continue to show pockets of strength. The most obvious risk is a disappointment in today’s PPI release. Consensus is for a colling down of both the monthly and annual core (ex-food and energy) measures. CFTC data suggested that non-commercial future positions heading into last week’s CPI were net short, and in the case of the 2Y, at a record level. This may account for the strength of the rally but data isn’t timely enough to assess what percentage of these shorts were closed since. Non-commercial future positions heading into last week’s CPI were net short Assuming a short base still exists, the potential for a rally on a soft inflation print remains, although we think most near-term short-covering needs have happened since last week. Another development that is harder to explain with this positioning data alone is the failure of the US curve to re-steepen after the CPI release. Common sense would dictate that the 2Y would rally the most if data points to an early end to the Fed’s cycle but it is the 5Y point that benefitted. This may suggest that the Fed’s cautious message has been heard, and that markets believe it won’t rush into cutting rates, which in turns means the 2Y could prove relatively sticky near-term. 5Y Treasuries dropped on the curve but 2s10s failed to steepen Source:  Refinitiv, ING Less collateral stress means swap spreads can join the risk party So far the strength of risk sentiment has failed to weigh on government bonds, in particular in Europe. The re-tightening of credit and sovereign spreads has failed to add to core yield upside which is characteristic of an environment where inflation remains the principal concern. In theory, this should weigh both on rates and riskier assets but the former is more directly impacted, so it is no surprise to see government bond yields stay range-bound even as stocks rally and spreads tighten. It is no surprise to see government bond yields stay range-bound even as stocks rally and spreads tighten Even the effect on swap spreads, an historical barometer of risk aversion, has been delayed. We’ve written repeatedly about steps taken by both the German federal treasury and the European Central Bank to ease the collateral shortage that has driven a wedge between the yield of German government bonds and swap rates. Large targeted longer-term refinancing operation (TLTRO) early repayments to be announced on Friday would add to this already well established dynamic. What lower collateral shortage would achieve is to make swap spreads more sensitive to other factors, including improving risk appetite, and so add to tightening pressure. This is assuming the reasons for the improvement in risk sentiment holds up, however. Easing collateral scarcity is allowing swap spreads to tighten alongside credit spreads Source: Refinitiv, ING Today’s events and market views Spanish and French CPI, as well as 3Q eurozone GDP will all be final readings. For more forward-looking indicators, look to Germany’s ZEW sentiment index, also released this morning. Frank Elderson, of the ECB, is due to speak today. Euro bond supply will come from Germany (7Y), Finland (5Y/25Y), and from the EU which mandated banks for a dual tranche 10Y green and 30Y deal. The UK will carry out sales in the 10Y and 22Y sectors. Given the magnitude of the post-CPI rally in bonds, today’s PPI will be scrutinised for confirmatory signs that inflation is on the descent. For the same reason, the Fed speakers scheduled for the day will be of particular importance in dictating US rates direction. They include Patrick Harker, Lisa Cook, and Michael Barr. Empire Manufacturing completes the list of US releases. We think the Treasury short base hasn’t entirely disappeared but has shrank enough to reduce the risk of a rally. Meanwhile, supply should weigh on bonds until at least mid-week. TagsRates Daily   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The dollar is inching lower again this morning and we think the ongoing correction could extend a bit more as optimism on US-China relations appears to be lifting sentiment. That said, a broader and sustained USD downtrend on the back of the China and/or Fed pivot story appears premature. Today, keep an eye on the ZEW and UK pre-Budget headlines In this article USD: A bit more pain EUR: Eyes on ZEW GBP: More Budget-related headlines SEK: Riksbank may go for 75bp after all USD: A bit more pain The dollar showed tentative signs of recovery yesterday, but appears to be lacking any strong support at the moment. While we don’t buy the one-way traffic, and the USD-bearish narrative in the longer run, there may be extra downside room for the greenback this week. With the US calendar being rather light, the two main drivers of global sentiment are China and Fed speakers. With respect to the first, there are two aspects to consider: data and diplomatic talks. As discussed here, Chinese industrial production and fixed asset growth numbers for October were in line with consensus, but the retail sales drop (-0.5% year-on-year) came as a surprise. Still, retail sales are highly sensitive to Covid restrictions, and the recent progress towards more flexible rules suggests room for recovery. Asian equities are rallying this morning, and this appears to be due to general optimism after a long meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 meeting yesterday, which was followed by mildly encouraging remarks about diplomatic cooperation. We still suspect it is too early to point at China as the key driver for a broader recovery in risk sentiment (and dollar descent), considering the still sizeable economic challenges affecting China going beyond its Covid policy (e.g. real estate fragility, slowing global demand). On the Fed front, we heard from both sides of the hawk-dove spectrum yesterday. The hawk Christopher Waller dismissed the deceleration in core inflation as just “one data point” and that more data was needed to conclude tightening should slow. The dove Lael Brainard also signalled there is more work to do, but explicitly said the Fed will likely shift to slower rate increases soon. It appears that the FX market was primarily affected by Waller’s remark, with the ultra-Fed-sensitive yen dropping around 1% yesterday. For now, we read recent Fedspeak as further indication that a bearish dollar call on the back of Fed dovish pivot bets still appears premature. Today, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Patrick Harker, while the data calendar includes October Empire Manufacturing and PPI figures. Some extra near-term USD weakness is possible, but we suspect we are reaching the bottom of the recent downtrend. Francesco Pesole EUR: Eyes on ZEW November’s ZEW survey is the main release to watch in the eurozone’s calendar today, and expectations are for a generalised improvement on the back of lower energy prices. Later this morning, it will be worth watching for any revision in the eurozone’s third-quarter GDP numbers. We’ll also hear from the ECB’s Francois Villeroy. EUR/USD strength is largely a USD story, and any support to the euro appears largely driven by energy prices, if anything. We could see another leg higher in the pair over the coming days, and 1.0500 could be at reach, even if we expect a relatively fast descent over the winter. Francesco Pesole GBP: More Budget-related headlines Ahead of the Autumn Budget announcement in the UK this Thursday, markets are being flooded with reports about which measures will be announced. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is now widely expected to deliver a 40% windfall tax on energy companies’ excess profits, while it’s been reported that the minimum wage will be raised from £9.50 to £10.40 an hour. Expect more headlines – and some sterling reaction – today. On the data front, jobs numbers were released in the UK this morning. As expected, the unemployment rate edged higher but was mostly driven by hiring freezes rather than rising redundancies. Reduced labour supply remains a bigger concern, especially as long-term sickness numbers continue to rise. Our economics team continues to expect a 50bp hike by the Bank of England in December. Francesco Pesole SEK: Riksbank may go for 75bp after all The Swedish inflation report this morning was a mixed bag. Headline inflation rose less than expected (from 10.8% to 10.9% YoY), CPIF inflation surprisingly declined (from 9.7% to 9.3%) but core CPIF rose (7.4% to 7.9%). Ultimately, the latter may matter more than the others for the Riksbank, which announces policy on 24 November, and that may tilt the balance towards a 75bp rate hike. Implications for the krona should however remain quite limited – today’s muted FX reaction to CPI was a case in point. We think SEK remains in a disadvantageous position compared to other procyclical currencies to benefit from an improvement in risk sentiment given the still clouded European outlook. We see room for a return toward 10.90/11.00 in EUR/SEK in the near term. Francesco Pesole TagsUS dollar SEK GBP FX EURUSD   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Retail Sales in the US are expected to rise by 1% following a stagnant September. Risk perception is likely to continue to drive the US Dollar's (USD) valuation. Market participants will pay close attention to the Q3 earnings reports of big retailers. Retail Sales in the United States (US) are forecast to rise by 1% in October after staying unchanged at $684 billion in September. The US Dollar (USD) has been struggling to find demand following the softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for October and the Retail Sales report is unlikely to impact the USD’s valuation in a meaningful way. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of a smaller, 50 basis points (bps), Federal Reserve rate increase in December stands at 80%, up significantly from 50% before the October inflation report. Although some FOMC policymakers urged markets not to get ahead of themselves by pricing in a less aggressive tightening outlook, the sharp decline witnessed in the US Dollar Index showed that investors had been looking for an opportunity to unwind crowded Dollar longs. Market implications Since the US Census Bureau’s Retail Sales data is not adjusted for price changes, it will not offer an accurate picture of consumer activity. Nevertheless, an unexpected decline in Retail Sales could trigger a “bad news is good news” reaction in financial markets as it would point to a slowdown in consumer demand, which the Fed has been trying hard to achieve by hiking rates. In that scenario, risk flows could continue to dominate the markets and make it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to hold its ground against its risk-sensitive rivals, such as the Euro (EUR) and the Pound Sterling (GBP). On the other hand, better-than-expected growth in sales could help the USD stage a recovery. However, a USD-positive market reaction should remain short-lived unless there is a noticeable negative shift in risk sentiment. It’s worth noting that several big retailers in the US are scheduled to report third-quarter earnings this week. Investors are likely to pay closer attention to these numbers rather than the Retail Sales report. At the time of press, Walmart's shares were up nearly 5% on the day after the retail giant announced that it expects sales in the US to increase by 5.5% in fiscal 2023, compared to 4.5% in the previous earning report. Lowe’s, Target and TJX Companies will release earnings figures on Wednesday. Macy’s, Kohls, Ross Stores and Gap will report on Thursday before Foot Locker and Buckle Inc. wrap up the week. To summarize, October Retail Sales report should do little to nothing to influence the market pricing of the Fed’s rate. Hence, overall risk perception should continue to drive the US Dollar’s action in the short term. In case Wall Street’s main indexes remain bullish in the second half of the week with big retailers reporting better-than-forecast earnings, the USD could have a hard time staging a rebound. US Dollar Index technical outlook US Dollar Index trades within a touching distance of 106.00. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the March-October uptrend reinforce that support. In case the index drops below that level and fails to reclaim it, it could target 105.00 (psychological level) and 104.00 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) next. On the upside, interim resistance seems to have formed at 107.00 (static level) ahead of 108.00 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). With a daily close above the latter, the index could extend its recovery toward 109.00, where the 100-day SMA is located. In the meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays near 30, suggesting that there could be a technical correction before the next leg lower.

Last week’s lower-than-expected core CPI print raised hopes that the Fed’s tightening cycle was entering the end phase. Today’s PPI report has offered further succor to the notion that the Fed will actually be in a position to cut rates if, as we fear, the US enters recession in 2023 The headline producer price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, which was lower than expected PPI surprises on the downside With core CPI rising only 0.3% month-on-month last week, rather than the 0.5% expected and the 0.6% MoM prints seen in previous months, the market saw evidence that inflation pressures may finally be abating after the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle since the early 1980s. While it is certainly very helpful to our view that inflation can get back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target next year, we warned that nothing can be taken for granted and that the 0.3% figure was still nearly double the 0.17% MoM figure we need to average over time to be confident that the 2% year-on-year inflation target will be hit. Today’s PPI report has given us confidence that inflation can fall more quickly than the market had been expecting. In turn this will give the Federal Reserve the flexibility to respond with stimulus should a 2023 recession materialise, as we fear. Annual inflation rates are slowing Source: Macrobond, ING   The headline rate rose 0.2% MoM, lower than the 0.4% expected, while September’s MoM rate was revised down to 0.2% from 0.4%. The details show that food +0.5% MoM and energy +2.7% MoM continue to run hot, but goods ex food and energy fell 0.1% MoM and services fell 0.1%. Consequently, the more important core figure (ex food and energy) was unchanged on the month versus the 0.3% MoM expected, leading the YoY core PPI rate to slow to 6.7% from 7.1%. Lower input costs reduce the pressure for consumer price rises Falling commodity prices and the effects of earlier energy price falls have been very helpful and together with the strong dollar and falling freight costs has meant imported prices are receding quite rapidly now. Indeed, freight costs from China to the US are now pretty much back to pre-Covid levels, suggesting supply chain frictions caused by logistic issues have abated to a large extent. This is all very helpful to reduce corporate input costs, which in turn reduces the pressure for companies to raise prices for consumers. Moreover, in a weakening economic environment it could allow companies greater flexibility on the pricing to respond to weaker demand without such an aggressive squeeze on profit margins. Freight costs for a 40-foot container Source: Macrobond, ING Federal Reserve has greater scope for flexibility Nonetheless, it is far too early for the Fed to signal the all-clear with Federal Reserve officials continuing to signal that while this is encouraging it is only one month. They will need to see consistent readings for core CPI coming in around 0.1% or 0.2% and we are still some way off from that, while we have to remember that the jobs market remains hot and wages continue to rise at a rapid clip. Consequently we continue to have a 50bp rate hike in for the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting and look for a further 50bp hike in the first quarter of 2023, but that should mark the top. Recessionary forces are intensifying and lower inflation will give the Fed the scope to reverse course with rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Read this article on THINK TagsUS PPI Inflation Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

USDCAD fades bounce off 100-DMA, mildly offered of late. Improvement in market sentiment pushes back US Dollar buyers. Fears of softer demand weigh on oil prices ahead of EIA inventories. Risk catalysts should also be watched closely amid the recent swings in risk appetite. USDCAD struggles to defend buyers around 1.3270-80 heading into Wednesday’s European session, despite bouncing off the previous day. In doing so, the Loonie pair portrays the trader’s anxiety ahead of the key data from the US and Canada. Also likely to have challenged the USDCAD moves are the latest moves in the sentiment. Late on Tuesday, the news that two Russian-made rockets were fired at Poland and killed two people triggered the risk-off mood. The same triggered emergency meetings of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Group of Seven (G7), which in turn favored the US Dollar (USD) due to its safe-haven appeal. However, the latest news shared by the Associated Press (AP) quoted an anonymous US official’s findings while mentioning that the missile may have been fired by Ukraine. As a result, the risk aversion ebbed and the greenback reversed the early-day gains. Elsewhere, market forecasts of upbeat US data and the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) bearish bias seem to keep the USDCAD buyers hopeful. On Tuesday, US Producer Price Index (PPI) for October eased to 8.0% YoY versus market forecasts of 8.3% and the downwardly revised prior of 8.4%. It’s worth noting that the monthly figure reprinted the 0.2% prior (revised from 0.4%) while easing below 0.5% expectations. Moreover, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 4.5 in November from -9.1 in October and the market expectation of -5. It should be noted that the US Retail Sales for October is expected to post 1.0% growth versus 0.0% prior. On a different page, Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem raised concerns over the effect of the rapid increases in interest rates on Monday, which in turn suggests easy rate hikes moving forward. In late October, the BOC surprised markets by announcing 0.50% rate hike versus 0.75% expected. Talking about the oil prices, the WTI crude oil drops 0.60% intraday to $85.65 by the press time amid fears of lower demand, raised by the OPEC earlier in the week. In doing so, the black gold fails to justify the latest weakness in the US Dollar, as well as the decline in the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock to 5.835M for the week ended on November 11 versus 5.618M prior. Moving on, Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US Retail Sales will be crucial to watch for the USDCAD traders and can provide a corrective bounce from the key DMA support in case of matching market forecasts. Also important to watch is the weekly print of the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change. Technical analysis USDCAD leans bearish between a one-week-old resistance line and the 100-DMA, respectively around 1.3370 and 1.3240.

Despite the fact that the dynamics of the dollar did not have a clear direction during today's Asian trading session, and the dollar quotes were in a narrow range, it still remains under pressure. As you know, inflation indicators for the US were published last week, indicating a slowdown in inflation in the country. Consumer price index (CPI) fell in October from 8.2% to 7.7% (year on year), stronger than the forecast of a decline to 8.0%. The core value (Core CPI) corrected from 6.6% to 6.3% against the forecast of 6.5% (also year on year). The data signal that the Fed's efforts to contain inflation in the US are yielding some results and the pace of policy tightening may soon be slowed down. Last Monday, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard noted that such changes in the approach to determining the necessary parameters of monetary policy are quite appropriate. At the same time, she noted that inflation is still too high and there is still a lot of work to be done to bring it back to the target level of 2.0%. A little earlier, Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed similar thoughts, admitting the possibility of slowing the pace of interest rate hikes. Yesterday, producer price indices in the United States for October were published, which also showed a slowdown: on a monthly basis, the indicator remained at the same level of 0.2% instead of the expected growth to 0.4%, and on an annual basis it adjusted from 8.4% to 8.0%. Thus, the probability of a Fed rate hike by 75 basis points in December decreased. On the contrary, now market participants, according to the CME Group, put in prices an 80% probability of an increase in the Fed's interest rate in December by 50 bps. In one of our previous reviews, we assumed that if the publication of US inflation data disappoints investors, it will provoke a new wave of dollar sell-offs and a drop in DXY towards 109.00. At that time, DXY futures were trading near 110.46, maintaining a negative momentum and moving in the lower part of the descending channel that formed last month (on the DXY chart). A break of these levels could trigger deeper DXY, up to key support levels at 107.40, 105.65. As a matter of fact, this happened: the price broke through the lower border of the descending channel on the DXY chart at 109.00 and reached the local low of 105.15 in the next three days, and yet, above the key support level of 105.65 (200 EMA on the daily CFD #USDX chart), the dollar index remains in long-term bull market zone. Long positions in DXY will again become preferable when there are signals to buy. Now the first such signal will be the return of the price to the zone above the resistance level 107.40 (144 EMA on the daily CFD #USDX chart), and the confirming one will be the growth above the levels of 109.00, 110.00. Today, market participants who follow the dynamics of the dollar, will study the report of the US Census Bureau on retail sales. Consumer spending accounts for most of the total economic activity of the population, while domestic trade accounts for the largest part of GDP growth. A relative decrease in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the dollar, and an increase in the indicator will have a positive impact on the USD. The indicator is expected to grow (+1.0% in October against the previous monthly values 0%, +0,3%, 0%, +0,8%, -0,1%), which should, theoretically, support the dollar.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-11-17 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/327264

The Canadian dollar has edged lower on Wednesday, trading at 1.3254, down 0.18%. Canadian dollar eyes inflation The Canadian dollar has performed well in the month of November, with gains of 2.7%. The unexpectedly soft inflation report out of the US ignited risk appetite, sending equities soaring and the US dollar sharply lower. USD/CAD is having a quiet day, but that could change in the North American session, with the release of Canada’s October inflation report. The markets are bracing for a spike in inflation, with an estimate of 0.7% MoM, compared to 0.1% in September. Inflation hit 6.9% in September, a slight drop from 7.0% in August. The markets are expecting another 6.9% gain for October, and an unexpected reading could trigger some volatility from USD/CAD. The Bank of Canada has tightened rates to 3.75%, which is a very aggressive rate-tightening cycle. The markets are expecting another 0.50% increase in December, and BOC Governor Macklem has borrowed the Fed script, saying that more rate hikes are needed in order to curb inflation. Like the Fed, Macklem has left open the possibility of reducing the pace of rate hikes in order to guide the economy to a soft landing and avoid a recession. A major concern for the BoC is that inflation expectations remain high, which risks triggering a wage-price spiral that would result in inflation climbing higher. A soft inflation report today would go a long way in assuaging the BoC’s concerns over inflation and inflation expectations. The Fed is doing its best to dampen speculation that it plans to pivot in its rate policy and that the rate-hike cycle is almost completed. Fed policy makers have sounded hawkish since the inflation report sent the markets into a tizzy, as any dovish signals could hurt the Fed’s battle with high inflation. The Fed’s message remains that the fight with inflation is not over and even though there could be an easing of the pace of hikes next month, the Fed expects a higher terminal rate than it did in September. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.3353 and 1.3471 There is support at 1.3218 and 1.3136 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canadian dollar steady ahead of inflation - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Technical outlook: The US dollar index has managed to push through 106.00 after carving an interim low around 104.95 early this week. The index is seen to be trading close to the 106.05 mark at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to come back in control soon. Please be aware that prices could drop first to 104.20 before reversing higher again. The US dollar index might have completed its corrective decline from 114.67 towards 104.95 or it is extremely close to terminating its correction. Please note that the Fibonacci 0.618 extensions have been met around 106.95 during a sell-off last week. Ideally, a corrective rally should be produced towards 110.60 before resuming lower again. Only a break above 112.67 will confirm a potential bullish trend reversal and will open the door to print fresh highs above 114.67. On the flip side, please keep a watch on the 104.95 interim support as a break there will drag prices towards the 104.00-20 zone before resuming higher again. To sum up, prices are about to produce a rally either from here or after printing a shallow low below 104.90. Trading idea: Potential rally against 103.50 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301351

A rebound in the risk-off market mood has strengthened the Greenback bulls. A usual test of the breakout region of the accumulation phase will offer a bargain buy to the market participants. Advancing 20-EMA adds to the upside filters. The USDCAD pair has shifted its auction profile above the critical hurdle of 1.3350 in the early European session. The asset has witnessed a decent buying interest as investors have turned cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions between North Korea and the US. The major has refreshed it's weekly high above 1.3360 led by a steep fall in oil prices. The US dollar index (DXY) has witnessed marginal selling pressure while struggling to cross the critical hurdle of 106.60. While the S&P500 futures have shown some recovery after easing entire gains recorded in early Asia. On an hourly scale, the asset has delivered a breakout of the accumulation phase that signals the transfer of inventory from retail participants to institutional investors. A usual test of the breakout region around 1.3336 would be an optimal opportunity for investors to initiate longs. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3325 is advancing, which adds to the upside filters. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that upside momentum has been activated. Should the asset corrects marginally to near the breakout region around 1.3336, investors will consider this a bargain buy and will initiate fresh longs. This will drive the asset towards November 8 low at 1.3387, followed by November 10 high at 1.3571. On the contrary, the Loonie bulls could regain control if the asset drops below the round-level support of 1.3300, which will drag the asset towards Wednesday’s low at 1.3246 and September 1 high around 1.3200. USDCAD hourly chart  

GBPUSD keeps high ground Sterling rallies as red hot inflation in the UK calls for more interest rate hikes by the BoE. A break above September’s high of 1.1740 has prompted some bears to cover their positions, easing the downward pressure from the daily chart’s perspective. A brief pause above this resistance-turned-support suggests that there is still juice in the recovery. August’s double top at 1.2250 would be next should the rebound pick up speed past 1.2000. 1.1500 near the origin of a bullish breakout is a key demand zone. USDCAD attempts to rebound The Canadian dollar slid as October’s inflation fell short of expectations. A dip below 1.3240 indicates a lack of demand for the US counterpart. The greenback may continue to lose ground as traders stay on the sidelines for fear of catching a falling knife. 1.3150 is the immediate level to see whether it could trigger a buy-the-dips behaviour. Failing that, the psychological level of 1.3000 would be on the line. For those looking to buy, 1.3440 is the first hurdle to clear and the pair may only regain a foothold once above 1.3640. USOIL falls lower WTI crude remains feeble amid rising COVID-19 cases in China. The price is in a horizontal consolidation between 82.00 and 93.50, but the downward pressure is still omnipresent following a double top at the upper band. Two consecutive falls below 88.00 and 85.00 have put the bulls on the defensive. As the latest rebound stalled at the psychological level of 90.00, the commodity could be vulnerable to a new round of sell-off. A drop below 82.00 might attract momentum sellers and push the price towards 77.00.

Over the next couple of days, we will be getting a series of monthly data from the US housing market. This data comes back into focus after the latest CPI reading, which is why it could have some influence on the dollar. Remember that the next CPI data release is the day before the FOMC announces its policy decision. That means the markets will have little time to adjust expectations based on the data. So, any components that can give some insight into what will happen with prices could have an outsized impact on the markets. Why it matters now The last CPI figure came in well below expectations, both on the headline and core reading. The latter is the most important for the markets, because that's what's tracked by the Fed. The thing is most of that surprise was due to a drop in cost of shelter, which basically means lower rental prices. Rent costs are part of the core inflation rate; since that only excludes food and energy costs. Apparently, analysts haven't been paying enough attention to what's been going on in the US housing industry to adequately forecast what would happen with CPI. This could be an issue beyond inflation, since housing is the largest single industry in the US, consuming the most raw materials. A slump in the housing industry, and the potential effects on the broader economy are illustrated by the 2008 subprime crisis. What happened and where are we going? As we talked about back in June, rising interest rates make it harder for people to afford to buy a house, which in turn puts downward pressure on house prices. Major housing firms have already reported that completions are down, and they expect to sell less in the coming months. Lower housing costs translates into lower rental prices. This is on top of a loss in disposable income keeping people from moving into higher cost rent, or looking for ways to lower their out of pocket expenses by, for example, sharing an apartment. The latest data on the housing market is expected to show a continuation of the trend. October US housing starts are expected to slip to 1.41M from 1.44M prior. Building permits are expected to fall -6.3% compared to the prior month. What this means is fewer new houses are coming on to the market to replace houses that have gotten too old. In the short term, this is bad for homebuilders; but the growing home deficit could imply a boom for the industry after rates come down in the long term. The more worrying sign More concerning is tomorrow's data of existing home sales, which represents a much larger number of buildings. New home building is more adjustable to market trends, and targets areas of growth. It doesn't necessarily represent trends in rent, for example, which is important for monetary policy projections. Existing home sales are expected to come in negative for the 9th consecutive month, showing a decrease of 8%. That would put home sales at 4.4M last month, compared to 4.7M in August.

The number of building permits in the US fell by 2.4% to 1,526K, the lowest since June 2020, and is almost 20% below the peak a year ago. Housing starts fell by 4.2% to 1,425k. During the pandemic, the housing market first collapsed due to lockdowns but then took flight, inflated by monetary and fiscal stimulus. This year, in addition to the halting of financial support programmes and another budgetary stimulus, Americans are dealing with the fastest rate of monetary tightening in 40 years, returning mortgage rates close to their 2007 peaks. The market is pretty good, considering such meaningful fundamental shifts. But we note that the market is deflating at a pace comparable to the mortgage crisis, which began in 2006 and continued through 2009. Then it took about a year and a half of declines before the banking industry collapsed, and the Fed went from raising rates to lowering them. October's reading looks slightly better than expected and has briefly boosted demand for the dollar and renewed the momentum of the declining stock markets. It slightly increases the chances that the Fed, although slowing the rate hike, is still far from stopping.

Each country shares monthly, weekly and quarterly macroeconomic reports. The USA, as the largest economy in the world, also has individual indicators that are monitored by investors around the world. The most popular because it is published every week is Initial Jobless Claims. We can hear that in a given week the rod has been decreasing or, on the contrary - it has increased, but what does it mean?   Non-farm payrolls (NFP) - an important economic health measure The nonfarm payroll, or simply the NFP, is always an important and influential event in the economic calendar.   The nonfarm payroll (NFP) report is a key economic indicator for the United States and represents the total number of paid workers in the U.S. excluding those employed by farms. The NFP data is normally released on the first Friday of every month.   Private and government entities throughout the United States are surveyed about their wages. BLS publishes non-farm payroll data on a monthly basis through a closely tracked employment report.   NFP releases generally cause large movements in the forex market. This is because traders always monitor the indicators to identify trends in economic growth A higher wage rate is generally good for the US economy as it indicates more jobs and faster economic growth. The expected change in wage data causes mixed reaction in the currency markets.When the nonfarm payroll differs significantly from the forecast, there is usually a reaction in the markets. But how does NFP affect the Forex market specifically? The effects of the NFP tend to be limited to currency pairs which involve the US dollar. If the results come in higher than expected, this tends to have a strengthening effect on the USD whereas, if the result comes in lower than expected, the USD will often weaken. Industrial production (IPI) indicator explained Industrial production refers to the output of industrial establishments and covers sectors such as mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas and steam and air-conditioning. It also measures production capacity, an estimate of production levels that can be sustainably maintained.   Industrial production and capacity levels are expressed as an index level compared to the base year. In other words, they do not express an absolute volume or value of production, but a percentage change in production compared to 2021.   Industry-level data is useful for managers and investors in specific industries. Fluctuations in the industrial sector are responsible for most of the change in overall economic growth.   The difference between GDP and IPI in the field that GDP measures the price paid by the end user, and thus includes the added value in the retail sector, which the IPI ignores.   Capacity utilization is a useful indicator of the strength of demand. Low capacity utilization or overcapacity signals weak demand. Politicians could read this as a signal that a fiscal or monetary stimulus is needed. On the other hand, high capacity utilization may act as a warning of an overheating of the economy, suggesting the risk of rising prices and asset bubbles.   Initial Jobless Claims - how investors use it? Jobless claims measure how many people are out of work at a given time. Initial jobless claims represent new claimants for unemployment benefits. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program. This report is published weekly.   Domestic unemployment claims are an extremely important indicator of macroeconomic analysis. As such, it is a good indicator of the US labor market. For example, when more people apply for unemployment benefits, it generally means that fewer people have jobs, and vice versa.   Investors can use this report to form an opinion on the country's economic performance. But this is often very volatile data as it is reported weekly. Markets can react strongly to the mid-month unemployment benefit report, especially if it shows a difference to the cumulative data of other recent indicators.   During the economic downturn caused by the spread of the COVID-19 virus, the weekly numbers of unemployed in the US rose to historic levels. We could observe that such a situation significantly influenced investors' decisions and market reaction. Source: investopedia.com, investing.com 

US stocks are declining as the Fed sticks to the hawkish script that supports the idea that this economy is quickly heading towards a recession. ​ Equities extended declines after the latest round of Fed speak reminded us that policymakers could remain very hawkish, despite a downshift to a half-point pace in December. ​Fed’s Bullard noted that the policy rate is not yet ‘sufficiently restrictive’. ​ He also highlighted a dovish scenario that could take the funds rate to 5% and a hawkish rate at 7%. Bullard said, he’s targeting a minimum of another 125 basis points in rate hikes, which would bring the target range to 5.00-5.25%. ​ Fed’s George said, “I’m looking at a labor market that is so tight, I don’t know how you continue to bring this level of inflation down without having some real slowing, and maybe we even have contraction in the economy to get there.” If we still have millions of job openings and inflation above rates, the Fed may need to continue hiking beyond February. ​ ​ This bear market rally is coming to an end as this economy is about to feel the real impact of restrictive territory. The latest round of economic data complicates the Fed’s tightening path as the labor market is slowly softening and as the housing market is in a recession. ​ US data Weekly jobless claims edged lower despite what feels like a couple of weeks of significant job loss announcements. ​ Initial jobless claims fell from a revised 226,000 to 222,000 in the week ending November 12th. ​ Continuing claims rose to 1.507 million but is still below the pre-pandemic average of 1.7 million. The job market is going to weaken, but the longer it takes, the greater the risks that we might see more Fed tightening. ​ The Philadelphia Fed business outlook crumbled in November. ​ The headline manufacturing activity reading plunged to -19.4, worse than the estimate of a decline of 6. ​ The employment component showed a significant drop from 28.5 to 7.1. ​ This part of the economy is clearly weakening, but firms continue to report overall price increases. ​ ​ The housing market correction continues and is approaching a bottom. ​ Both starts and permits continue to decline as borrowing costs skyrocket, inventory levels are growing, and the typical single-family home purchaser is much weaker as inflation runs wild. ​ Crypto Cryptos are weakening as risk appetite just left the building. ​ Today’s weakness is mainly attributed to exhaustion with the bear market rally that has powered stocks. ​ There is no shortage of news across crypto markets and a lot of it is speculative. We will be talking a lot about FTX for months to come but what will drive the cryptos is if Binance, Coinbase, Lbank, or Consbit have any liquidity crunches. A lot of bad news has been priced in so it might take another downfall of a major crypto company or a de-risking movement on Wall Street to take bitcoin below its recent low. ​ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Fed speak kills risk appetite, stocks decline, US data, cryptos weaken - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rose through the 107.00 level intraday on Thursday before finding resistance and pulling back. The index is seen to be trading close to 106.20 at this point in writing as a probability remains for yet another low towards the 104.00 level. The bulls are looking poised to come back in control thereafter and resume the larger-degree trend higher. The US dollar index looks to be still progressing into its Wave C lower towards 104.00. Please note the last leg resumed lower from the 112.67 highs after hitting the back side of the past support trend line as seen on the 4H chart here. Also, note that the Fibonacci 1.271 extension is pointing towards 103.80, which could be the next potential downside target. The US dollar index is facing immediate price resistance at 110.60, followed by 112.67; while support is seen towards 104.30 as seen on the chart presented here. Please note that the entire structure from the 114.67 highs still looks corrective with one more potential low left to be printed close to the 104.00 mark before the rally could resume. Trading idea: Potential drop to 104.00 and then the price resumes higher again Good luck!   Relevance up to 02:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301517

Summary:  Our ‘Macro Chartmania’ series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance. This week, we focus on the U.S. Employment Cost Index. It shows that inflationary pressures are finally fading on Main Street but not good for reasons. Click to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania. The market narrative machine is fascinating. In 2022, the bear market narrative was « inflation shock, rates shock and recession shock ». For 2023, the market narrative is rather bullish. Analysts expect that inflation will move lower but will remain sticky, that a mild recession will affect most of the developed economies and that central banks will hike a little further (probably until the start of the second quarter) before pausing for the rest of the year. It is certainly too early to know the steepness of the recession and whether the United States will manage to avoid it. This is an ongoing debate among economists. But there are early signs inflation is finally receding, at least in the United States. This is not the case in the United Kingdom where the October CPI reached 11.1% year-over-year, for instance. In the United States, higher wages reflecting Covid unbalances, worker shortage and tight labor market partially explained the increase in prices. This is now reversing. In just the last several weeks, we have seen major layoff announcements from the tech sector (Meta, Stripe, Paypal, Microsoft, Amazon etc.). But this is not just a technology story. We have seen layoffs in other sectors of the economy, from the real estate promoter Redfin and the trucking giant C.H. Robinson among many others. To understand why layoffs are starting now, we need to first understand the sequence of the economy. Employment is a well-known lagging indicator. In the past, it has already happened that job losses started only with a lag of several months after the economy entered into a recession (job losses started 8 months after the official start of the 1974 recession, for instance). But some sectors of the economy are more sensitive than others to higher interest rates, which can help predict whether or not we will face massive layoffs. This is the case of the housing market especially (we used to say that the housing market is the business cycle in the United States). With the cooling of the housing market which started in early 2022, the consumption of things associated with home buying are also going down - with a lag. Think home appliances, home-building tools etc. The housing slowdown is spreading into the rest of the economy. This puts pressure on big durable goods and thus on the industry that moves these goods around the world. This explains why C.H. Robinson fired 650 employees one week ago. This is only the beginning, in our view. Mass layoff to come means that the drop in wage increases, which has just started, will continue in the coming months. In the below chart, we have plotted the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) compensation plans and the Employment Cost Index. Only a net 23 % of small businesses plan to raise compensation in the next three months. This is much lower than a few months ago (when it was at a cycle peak of 32 %). Compensation practices of small businesses tend to lead to broader wage and salary growth. Therefore, we can expect that the Employment Cost Index, which has started to decelerate recently, will continue moving downwards, likely well below 4% going into 2023. This could ultimately ease inflationary pressures and open the door to a slower pace of Fed rate hikes. This echoes comments from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard earlier this week : “It will probably be appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of increases.” Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/chart-of-the-week--us--employment-cost-index-18112022

In our 2023 FX Outlook, we argued that G10 currencies should face less trend and more volatility in 2023. We saw an example this week, as the fading bear-dollar trend did not prevent some wide swings in risk-sensitive currencies (like NOK and SEK). In the UK, the pound survived the Autumn Statement, but downside risks persist in GBP/USD In this article USD: Bearish sentiment cooling off EUR: Lagarde's speech in focus GBP: Most painful fiscal measures delayed NOK: Strong domestic story may not matter USD: Bearish sentiment cooling off As recently discussed in our 2023 FX Outlook, we are quite sceptical of a clean bear dollar trend from the current levels. This week’s moves in the FX market may have offered a glimpse of what we expect to be the main theme in G10 FX next year: less trend, more volatility. The dollar has stabilised after the big correction, but regional stories triggered significant swings in some crosses. Scandinavian currencies fell by around 2% this week, hit by equity volatility and geopolitical tensions, while NZD and GBP have appreciated on some domestic optimism. In New Zealand, next week’s central bank meeting will be a key risk event: here is our preview. We think this consolidation phase in the dollar may extend for a little longer, before a re-appreciation of the greenback into the end of the year. Indeed, markets will remain highly sensitive to Fed speakers: today, only Susan Collins is scheduled to speak, but we have a number of other members lined up for next week. FOMC minutes will also be released on Wednesday. So far, post-CPI comments have indicated some lingering caution on the inflation battle as most Fed members tried to curb the market’s enthusiasm about an imminent dovish pivot. The future market has now fully priced back in a 5.00% peak rate in the first half of 2023. The US calendar is rather light today and only includes existing home sales and the Leading Index. With the dovish pivot narrative softening, we expect some re-appreciation of the dollar in the near term, but that is a trend that could only start from next week or the one after. DXY may stay around 106/107 today.    Francesco Pesole EUR: Lagarde's speech in focus ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a keynote speech at a banking conference this morning. Two more ECB speakers are on the list today: Joachim Nagel and Klaas Knot, both hawkish voices in the Governing Council. If the Fed remains the key driver for the dollar, the ECB continues to have a rather marginal role for the euro, which instead remains primarily tied to global risk sentiment and geopolitical/energy dynamics. EUR/USD may stay in the 1.0350-1.0400 trading range into the weekend and while we don’t exclude another short-term mini-rally, we think that the macro picture continues to point to sub-parity levels in the coming months. Francesco Pesole GBP: Most painful fiscal measures delayed The pound survived the much-feared Autumn Statement by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt yesterday. The build-up to the statement seemed to signal more restrictive measures on the economy, but Hunt counted on a calmer market backdrop and – as discussed in detail by our economist – delayed some of the most painful measures. Ultimately, the impact on next year's growth should not prove huge, especially compared to expectations. The tax hike will only affect high incomes and energy companies, and the National Insurance cut by the previous government has not been reversed. The most relevant change was the increase in the energy bill guarantee from £2,500 to £3,000 from April 2023, which should generate some drag on consumers. That is only marginally more generous than the average household energy bill under current wholesale prices (which we estimate at around £3,200). The risk is obviously that wholesale prices spike again, meaning a higher cost for the energy support package. We think it is too early to call for a prolonged stabilisation in the gilt market, and our debt team notes that there is still a lot of extra supply for private investors to absorb. We continue to see downside risks for GBP/USD as the dollar may start to recover into year-end, and target sub-1.15 levels in the near term. However, we forecast some outperformance in EUR/GBP (primarily due to EUR weakness), which could rise to 0.89 by year-end. Francesco Pesole NOK: Strong domestic story may not matter Norwegian GDP data for the third quarter surprised on the upside this morning, showing a rather strong 1.5% quarter-on-quarter growth. This is a testament to how the domestic story should remain largely supportive of NOK, also into the new year. Whether this will ultimately feed into a stronger krone is another question, and mostly depends on whether markets will prove calm enough to allow fundamentals to play a role. The last week clearly showed that the road to a recovery in NOK is going to prove quite uneven, as the low-liquidity krone should continue to face large swings. We really think volatility will be the name of the game for EUR/NOK next year, even though our base-case scenario is downward-sloping in 2023. In the short run, a return to 10.60+ is a tangible possibility. Francesco Pesole TagsNOK FX Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Inflation in Japan soared to the highest levels in more than 30 years, to 3.7% in October, up from 3% printed a month earlier. High inflation print sure revived the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hawks, and the calls for a policy rate hike, and kept the dollar-yen below the 140 level, but it’s unsure whether the BoJ will give up on its ultra-soft policy stance. Therefore, if the US dollar picks up momentum, which will certainly be the case, the USDJPY could easily rebound back above its 50-DMA, which stands near 145. US And the reason I think the US dollar will recover is because most Fed members remain relatively hawkish regarding the Fed’s policy tightening. Plus, option traders are building topside structure over the one-month tenor that covers the next US inflation report and the Fed’s next policy meeting in December. Stock market So, the ambiance in the stock markets is not as cheery as it was at the end of last week. UK In the UK, the autumn budget statement went happily eventless. Gilts rallied, pound saw limited sell-off, while energy companies’ reaction to windfall taxes remained muted. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:30 Japan inflation soars, Mr. Kuroda! 1:34 Should you prepare for another USD rally? 3:32 Market mood turns… meh. 4:01 The retail roundup 6:11 The happily eventless UK budget Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.   #hawkish #Fed #USD #recovery #US #retail #sales #Walmart #Target #Macys #HomeDepot #Lowes #Alibaba #earnings #UK #Budget #GBP #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

After an 18-month bull trend in the dollar, the FX outlook has become less clear. Further position adjustment could prompt a little more short-term dollar weakness, but we do not believe the conditions are in place for a major dollar bear trend just yet. Instead, we expect FX markets in 2023 to be characterised by less trend and more volatility. Source: Shutterstock G10: Less trend, more volatility The final quarter of 2022 has seen a breakdown in the otherwise orderly dollar bull trend – a trend which had been worth 5% per quarter over the first nine months of the year. That dollar rally had largely been driven by a Federal Reserve wanting to take policy into restrictive territory – a trend only exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. For all the current discussions about peak dollar and peak macro pessimism, we think it is still worth examining whether the conditions will be in place to deliver an orderly dollar bear trend in 2023. We think not and here are three reasons why: Driving the dollar bull trend since summer 2021 has been a Fed at first abandoning Average Inflation Targeting and then trying to get ahead of the inflation surge. A call on a benign dollar decline in 2023 requires the Fed to be taking a back seat. That seems unlikely. The stark message from both the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium and the IMF autumn meetings was that central banks should avoid relaxing too early in their inflation battle – a move which would deliver the pain of recession without any of the sustained gains on inflation. We suspect it will be too early for the Fed to sound relaxed at its 14 December meeting and March 2023 may be the first opportunity for a decisive turn in Fed rhetoric. While a softer Fed profile may be a necessary condition for a turn in the dollar, a sufficient condition requires a global economic environment attractive enough to draw funds out of the dollar. 2023 global growth forecasts are still being cut – dragged lower especially by recession in Europe. ING forecasts merchandise world trade growth below 2% in 2023 – not a particularly attractive story for the trade-sensitive currencies in Europe and emerging markets. A liquidity premium will be required of non-dollar currencies. 2023 will be a year when central banks are initially still hiking into a recession and shrinking balance sheets. The Fed will reduce its balance sheet by a further $1.1tn in 2023 and the European Central Bank will be looking at quantitative tightening, too. Lower excess reserves will tighten liquidity conditions still further and raise FX volatility levels. Again, the bar not to invest in dollar deposits remains high – especially when those dollar deposits start to pay 5% and the dollar retains its crown as the most liquid currency on the planet. What do these trends mean for G10 FX markets? This probably means that the dollar can bounce around near the highs rather than embark on a clean bear trend in 2023. If the dollar is to turn substantially lower, we would favour the defensive currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc outperforming. Here, the positive correlation between bonds and equity markets may well break down via the bond market rallying on the back of a US recession and easier Fed policy. ING forecasts US 10-year Treasury yields ending 2023 at 2.75% - USD/JPY could be trading at 130 under that scenario.  Recession in Europe means that EUR/USD could be trading in a 0.95-1.05 range for most of the year, where fears of another energy crisis in the winter of 2023 and uncertainty in Ukraine will hold the euro back. Sterling should also stay fragile as the new government attempts to restore fiscal credibility with Austerity 2.0. We cannot see sterling being rewarded much more on austerity and suspect that GBP/USD struggles to hold gains over 1.20.  Elsewhere in Europe, some differentiation could emerge between the Scandinavian currencies. The Swedish krona may struggle to enter a sustained uptrend next year given its elevated exposure to the eurozone’s growth story, while the Norwegian krone could benefit from its attractive commodity exposure. However, NOK is an illiquid and more volatile currency, and would therefore face a bigger downside in a risk-off scenario. As shown in the chart below, commodity currencies look undervalued versus the dollar on a fundamental basis. However, a stabilisation in risk sentiment is a necessary condition to close the misvaluation gap. For the Australian and New Zealand dollars, an improvement in China’s medium-term outlook is also essential, so the Canadian dollar may emerge as a more attractive pro-cyclical bet given low exposure to the economic woes of Europe and China. Another factor to consider is the depth of the forthcoming house price contraction. We think central banks will increasingly take this into consideration and will try to avert an uncontrolled fall in the housing sector. However, this is potentially a very sizeable downside risk, especially for the currencies of commodity-exporting countries, which generally display the most overvalued property markets in the G10. To conclude, we think FX trends will become less clear in 2023 and volatility will continue to rise. FX option volatility may seem expensive relative to historical levels, but not at all when compared to the volatility FX pairs are actually delivering. We suspect risk management through FX options may become even more popular in 2023.   Valuation, volatility and liquidity in G10 Source: ING, Refinitiv EUR/USD: Dollar bromance will take some breaking   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/USD 1.035 Bearish 0.98 0.95 0.98 1.00 1.00 Bullish leap of faith is too dangerous: We are bearish on EUR/USD into the end of the first quarter of 2023. Key factors which have driven EUR/USD lower this year will remain largely in place. The softish US October CPI print may give the Fed some pause for thought, but should not be enough to derail it from some further tightening – taking the policy rate close to 5.00% in the first quarter of 2023. Another key factor for EUR/USD this year has been energy. Here, our team sees prices for both natural gas and oil rising from current levels through 2023. A difficult 2023 European winter for energy may well restrain the EUR/USD recovery later in the year, continuing to depress the eurozone’s traditionally large current account surplus.   Necessary but not sufficient: Tighter Fed policy has been at the forefront of this year’s dollar rally and a shift in the Fed tone (more likely in March 2023 than December 2022) will be necessary to see the short end of the US yield curve soften appreciably and the dollar weaken. But the sufficient condition for a EUR/USD turnaround is the state of affairs amongst trading partners. Are they attractive enough to draw funds away from USD cash deposits potentially paying 5%? That is a high bar and why we would favour the EUR/USD 2023 recovery being very modest, rather than the ‘V’ shape some are talking about. ECB will blink first: The case for a central bank pivot is stronger for the ECB than the Fed. The German economy looks set to contract 1.5% next year and at its 15 December meeting, the ECB may well use its 2025 forecast round to show inflation back on target. We see the ECB tightening cycle stalling at 2.25% in February versus the near 3% currently priced by the market for 2023. This all assumes a seamless ECB introduction of quantitative tightening and one that does not upset peripheral bond markets. Add in global merchandise trade barely growing above 1% next year (recall how the 2017-19 trade wars weighed on the euro) plus the risk of tighter liquidity spilling into financial stability – all suggest the market’s bromance with the dollar will continue for a while yet.  USD/JPY: 1Q23 will be a crucial quarter   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 USD/JPY 140.00 Bearish 145.00 145.00 140.00 135.00 130.00 Clash of the titans: The stark divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan has been the primary driver of this year’s 15%+ rally in USD/JPY. In 2023, investors may question whether the BoJ is ready to tighten. The default view is that the perma-dovish BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, will not be moved. However, the end of Governor Kuroda’s term on 8 April 2023 will no doubt lead to frenzied speculation on his replacement and whether a less dovish candidate emerges. Interest rate markets are starting to price a change – e.g. the BoJ’s 10-year target sovereign yield of 0.25% is priced at 0.50% in six months’ time. March 2023 will be especially volatile: The first quarter of 2023 will also see huge focus on the Japanese wage round, where a rise in wages is a prerequisite for the BoJ to tighten policy. Japanese politicians have been encouraging business leaders to raise wages, while at the same time, the government has been quite aggressive with fiscal stimulus to offset the cost-of-living shock. This period will also see the Fed release its dot plots (22 March), which may be the first real chance for the Fed to acknowledge a turn in the inflation profile. As such, this period (March/April) could see a big reversal lower in USD/JPY. FX Intervention slows the move: Most agree that USD/JPY is higher for good reasons (including the energy crisis) and that Japanese FX intervention can only slow, not reverse the move. The Japanese have already spent around $70bn in FX intervention between the 146 and 151 region in USD/JPY and will likely be called into further action based on our view of a stronger dollar over coming months. FX reserves are not limitless, of course, but Japan’s large stockpile of $1.1tn means that this campaign can continue for several more months. The purpose here is to buy time before the Fed cycle turns. Unless we end up with 6%+ policy rates in the US next year, we would expect USD/JPY to be ending 2023 nearer 130. GBP/USD: Running repairs   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 GBP/USD 1.19 Mildly Bearish 1.10 1.07 1.11 1.14 1.14 Fiscal rescue plan: After September’s government-inflicted flash crash, GBP/USD is now recovering on the expectation of more credible UK fiscal plans and the softer dollar. As above, we doubt 2023 will prove the year of a benign dollar decline. And the risk is that the Fed keeps rates at elevated levels for longer. Given sterling’s large current account deficit and its transition to high beta on the external environment, we think it is too early to be expecting a sustained recovery here. Instead, we favour a return to the 1.10 area into year-end as the government introduces Austerity 2.0 and the Bank of England cycle is repriced lower. Tighter fiscal/looser monetary mix: At its meeting in early November, the BoE pushed back against the market pricing of the rate cycle – arguing that hikes close to 5% would see the UK economy contract 5%. Our call is that the BoE terminal rate will be closer to the 3.75% area than the 4.50% that the market prices today. As the BoE assesses the degree of tightening needed to curtail inflation, the government is discussing ways to fill around a £60bn hole in the budget. The plan will be revealed on 17 November, probably in a roughly 50:50 split between tax hikes and real terms spending cuts. We look for the UK economy to contract every quarter in 2023 – making it a very difficult environment for sterling. Sterling suffers from liquidity outages: This year’s BIS triennial FX survey saw sterling retain its position as the fourth most traded currency pair. Despite this, sterling does occasionally suffer from flash crashes. We think liquidity will be at a premium in 2023 and that a Fed taking real rates even higher as economies head into recession is a dangerous combination for sterling – where financial services make up a large section of the economy. GBP/USD realised volatility is now back to levels seen during Brexit and our market call for 2023 is that these types of levels will become more, not less, common. EUR/JPY: A turn in the cycle   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/JPY 144.50 Bearish 142.00 138.00 137.00 135.00 130.00 Downside risks into 1Q23: EUR/JPY has defied typical relationships with risk assets by gently rallying all year even as both bond and equity benchmarks sold off 20%. Driving that JPY underperformance has probably been BoJ policy and USD/JPY’s strong relationship with US 10-year yields. Both the eurozone and Japan have been hit by the energy shock, where external surpluses have quickly dwindled. As above, we tend to think there are downside risks to EUR/JPY in the first quarter of 2023 as speculation mounts over BoJ Kuroda's successor as well as the ECB potentially calling time on their tightening cycle at the February meeting. US10yr can drag EUR/JPY to 130 in 2H23: A large part of the JPY underperformance during 2022 has been driven by developments in the US bond market. USD/JPY consistently shows the most positive correlation to US 10-year Treasury yields of any of the G10 FX pairs – and far higher than EUR/USD. Consistent with ING’s view on the Fed cutting rates in the third quarter of 2023, our debt strategy team sees US 10-year yields starting to edge lower in the second quarter of 2023, and then falling 100bp in the second half of 2023. In theory, this should heavily pressure EUR/JPY into the end of the year. Financial stability risks increase: Lower growth and tighter liquidity conditions – at least through the early part of 2023 – increase the prospect of financial stability risks. Recall the Fed will be shrinking its balance sheet by $1.1tn in 2023 even as liquidity and bid-offer spreads continue to create difficult market conditions. The yen lost its shine as a safe-haven currency in 2022, but we suspect relative to the euro, some of that shine can be regained in a softer US rate environment. The EUR/JPY cycle should also turn if the ECB calls time on its tightening cycle at the 2 February meeting. EUR/GBP: Listless in London   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/GBP 0.87 Neutral 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 In the same macro boat: Both the eurozone and UK economies have been hit hard by the war in Ukraine and the surge in energy prices. Both saw sharp terms of trade declines into August and then a sharp reversal as natural gas prices dipped into the warm winter. There is not a substantial amount of difference between our German and UK quarterly growth profiles for 2023 – both contracting every quarter of the year. Perhaps one could argue that the UK is more exposed to higher mortgage rates given the shorter duration of fixed-rate mortgages in the UK. This could all make for a trendless EUR/GBP environment. Energy price guarantees could differentiate: One important determinant for UK growth in 2023 will be how the new government handles the Energy Price Guarantee. Former UK Prime Minister, Liz Truss, offered a two-year programme – subsequently cut back to six months after the UK fiscal crisis. How the UK consumer copes with having to pay market prices for energy will be key to the UK story in 2023 as well as how the EU as a whole copes with similar challenges. Currently, it seems that the ECB is concerned that the fiscal programmes in Europe are too generous and not particularly targeted – adding to the inflation challenge.    Political wild cards: To pick out a few political wild cards, the first is a re-run of the Scottish independence referendum. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has picked 19 October 2023 as the date – although such an exercise would likely have to be approved by the UK parliament. Currently, the SNP is pursuing an action through the Supreme Court to see whether London can indeed still veto the referendum. In Europe, the focus will probably be on the fiscal path taken by the new right-wing Meloni government and also the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact. Budgets submitted in late 2023 could become an issue were the rules to be tightened again.   EUR/CHF: Swiss National Bank to guide it lower   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/CHF 0.98 Bearish 0.95 0.93 0.90 0.90 0.92 Does the SNB want a stronger Swiss franc?: The Swiss National Bank this year said it made a conscious decision to allow nominal Swiss franc appreciation in light of the inflation environment. The three-month policy rate has been raised 125bp to 0.50% and the SNB says it wants to keep the real exchange rate stable. With inflation running at 3% in Switzerland versus 10% in its largest trading partner, the eurozone, the SNB in theory should be happy with something like 5-7% per annum nominal appreciation in the Swiss franc. That certainly was the story into the end of September but does not quite explain the Swiss franc's weakness over the last six weeks. Two-sided intervention: When hiking rates earlier this year the SNB also said it would be engaging in two-sided FX intervention. Ever since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, the SNB has been more familiar as a seller of the Swiss franc – including its 1.20 floor in 2011-2015. Now its strategy is changing and we read that as an objective to potentially manage the Swiss franc stronger in line with its ambitions to tighten monetary conditions. Earlier this year, we estimated that the SNB could possibly drive EUR/CHF to the 0.90 area in summer 2023 based on expected inflation differentials and the need for a stable real exchange rate. The risk environment should favour the franc: Central banks are communicating that they need to tighten rates into recession and remove the excess liquidity poured out during a series of monetary bailouts. Tighter monetary and financial conditions typically spell stormy waters for risk assets. With its still sizable current account surplus (worth 8% of GDP in the second quarter of 2022) the Swiss franc should perform well during this stage of the global economic cycle. Closer to home, the European economic cycle and the ECB discussing quantitative tightening into early 2023 will prove a challenge to peripheral eurozone debt markets and likely reinforce the franc as a eurozone hedge. EUR/NOK: Not for the faint of heart   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/NOK 10.33 Bearish 10.30 10.15 9.95 9.70 9.60 Risk sentiment remains key: The krone is not a currency for the faint of heart. It is the least liquid currency in the G10 space, making it considerably exposed to negative shifts in global risk sentiment and equity market turmoil. It is, at this stage, way too early to call for a turn in equities, and a hawkish Fed into the new year may actually mean more pain for risk assets, at least in the near term. A recovery in global sentiment should offer support to NOK in the second half of next year, but restoring market confidence in a very high-beta currency is no easy feat. Norges Bank policy: The krone’s underperformance in 2022 was exacerbated by Norges Bank effectively sterilising oil and gas profits via a large increase in daily NOK sales. In November, FX daily sales have been scaled back from NOK4.3bn to NOK3.7bn, and we think there could be some interest by NB to further ease the pressure on the currency via smaller FX sales. With recent dovish hints suggesting that the NB hiking cycle may peak at 3.0% (with most of the country on variable mortgage rates, many more rate hikes could be difficult to tolerate), allowing a stronger currency to do some inflation-fighting sounds reasonable.  Energy prices: If indeed markets enjoy a calmer environment in 2023 and NB favours a stronger currency, then NOK is left with considerable room to benefit from a still strong energy market picture for Norway. There is probably an optimal range for oil and – above all – gas prices to trade at elevated levels but not such high levels that would significantly hit risk sentiment. For TTF, this could be somewhere around 150-200 €/MWh. This a plausible forecast for next year, but the margin for error can be very large. We see EUR/NOK at 10.50 in the fourth quarter of 2023, but NOK hiccups along the way are highly likely. EUR/SEK: Eurozone exposure a drag on SEK   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/SEK 10.80 Neutral 10.85 10.70 10.60 10.40 10.50 Riksbank’s policy: The Riksbank delivered more than one hawkish surprise in 2022, including a 100bp rate hike. This appeared to be part of a front-loading operation where lifting the krona was seen as a welcome side effect. In practice, and like in many other instances in the G10, the high volatility environment meant that short-term rate differentials played a negligible role in FX. So, despite a wide EUR-SEK negative rate differential throughout 2022, SEK was unable to draw any real benefit. That differential has now evaporated, but we expect 125bp of tightening (rates at 3.0%) in Sweden versus 75bp in the eurozone, which could suggest some EUR/SEK downside room in a more stable market environment. Also, a slowdown in FX purchases by the RB, now that reserves are back to the 1H19 levels, should remove some of the pressure on SEK. European picture: Sweden is a very open economy with more than half of its exports heading to other EU countries. Our expectations are that 2023 will see a rather pronounced eurozone recession and that the energy crisis will extend into the end of next year. Barring a prolonged period of low energy prices (and essentially an improvement in the geopolitical picture) in Europe, we doubt SEK will be able to enter a sustainable appreciation trend in 2023 as sentiment in the eurozone should remain depressed. Valuation: We are not fans of the euro in 2023, which means that our EUR-crosses forecasts reflect the weaker EUR profile. We see some room for EUR/SEK to move lower throughout the year – also considering that we estimate the pair to be around 9.0% overvalued. However, the high risk of a prolonged energy crisis in the eurozone means that SEK is significantly less attractive than other pro-cyclical currencies next year. Incidentally, SEK is highly correlated to the US tech stock market, which looks particularly vulnerable at the moment. A return to 10.00 or below would likely require a significant improvement in European sentiment. USD/CAD: Loonie is an attractive pro-cyclical bet   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 USD/CAD 1.33 Bearish 1.34 1.32 1.30 1.26 1.24 Commodities and external factors: Our commodities team expects Brent to average slightly above $100/bbl next year, and Western Canadian Select around $85/bbl. Along with our expectations for higher gas prices, the overall commodity picture should prove rather supportive for the Canadian dollar in 2023. In our base-case scenario, where global risk sentiment gradually recovers but two major risk-off forces – Ukraine/Europe and China – remain, CAD would be in an advantageous position, since Canada has much more limited direct exposure to China and Europe compared to other commodity-exporting economies.  Domestic economy: If the US proves to be a relative 'safe-haven' in the global recession, therefore withstanding the downturn better than other major economies like the eurozone, this should offer a shield to Canada’s economy, which is heavily reliant on exports to the US. There is probably one major concern for the domestic economy: house prices. Canada is among the most vulnerable housing markets in the world, with price-to-income ratios around 9x in many cities (compared to 5-6x in the US). Whether we’ll see a sizeable but controlled descent or a fully-fledged housing crash will depend on the Bank of Canada and the depth of the recession. Monetary policy and valuation: It does appear that the BoC has started to consider domestic warning signals (probably, also house prices), and recently shifted to a more moderate pace of tightening. Markets are currently expecting rates to peak around 4.25/4.50% in Canada, and we tend to agree. Barring a rapid acceleration in the unemployment rate, a housing crash should be averted. It is also likely that the BoC will start cutting before the Fed in 2023. All in all, accepting the downside risks stemming from the housing market and/or a further deterioration in risk sentiment, we see room for a descent in USD/CAD to the 1.25 level towards the end of 2023. In our BEER model, CAD is around 20% undervalued in real terms. AUD/USD: Riding Beijing’s roller coaster   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 AUD/USD 0.68 Mildly Bullish 0.66 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.70 Exposure to China: The Australian dollar is a high-beta currency, and the direction of global risk sentiment will be the key driver next year. We think that a gradual recovery in sentiment will be accompanied by a still challenging energy picture, which may force investors to choose which pro-cyclical currencies to bet on. When it comes to AUD, the China factor will remain very central, as Australia has the most China-dependent export machine in the G10. Our economics team’s baseline scenario is that the real estate crisis will be the main drag on growth in China and while retail should recover on looser Covid rules, slowing global demand should hit exports. One positive development: the new Australian government is seeking a more friendly relationship with Beijing, paving the way for the removal of export curbs next year. Commodities and growth: Iron ore remains Australia’s main export (estimated at $130bn in 2022), and it is a very sensitive commodity to China's real estate sector. Our commodities team thinks a return to $100+ levels is unlikely given the worsening Chinese demand picture, but still forecasts prices to average $90/t in 2023. The second and third largest exports are oil and natural gas ($100bn combined). Here, we see clearly more upside room for prices, especially on the natural gas side. On balance, we expect the commodity picture for Australia to be rather constructive next year, which could offer a buffer to the Australian economy during the downturn. Growth in 2022 should have topped the 4% mark, but that will be much harder to achieve in 2023. The combination of higher rates, reset mortgages, a slowing housing market and possibly softening labour market should bring growth back closer to 3%. This would still be an extremely strong outcome against the backdrop of global weakness.   Monetary policy and valuation: The Reserve Bank of Australia has been one of the 'pioneers' of the dovish pivot, and a return to 50bp increases seems unlikely, as the Bank is probably monitoring the rather overvalued housing market, and the inflation picture is less concerning than in the US or in Europe. Most Australian households have short-term fixed mortgage rates, and we could see a deterioration in disposable income (especially at the start of the year). We think the RBA will be careful to avert an excessively sharp housing contraction, and we expect rates to peak at 3.60% (well below the Fed and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand) and cuts from 3Q23. This would mean a less attractive carry – and less upside risk in an optimistic scenario for global sentiment; but also less damage to the economy, which may play in AUD’s favour in our baseline scenario. Valuation highly favours AUD, as the positive terms of trade shock means that AUD/USD is 20% undervalued in real terms, according to our behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model. We have a moderately upward-sloping profile for the pair in 2023, but high sensitivity to risk sentiment and China suggests downside risks remain high. NZD/USD: Dodging the housing bullet   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 NZD/USD 0.62 Mildly Bullish 0.60 0.60 0.62 0.63 0.64 Monetary policy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has given very few reasons to believe it is approaching a dovish pivot. Markets are currently expecting the Bank to hike well into 2023, and take rates to around 5.0%. While inflation (7.2% year-on-year) and job market tightness (unemployment at 3.3%) both remained elevated in the third quarter, there are growing concerns about the rapid downturn in the New Zealand property market, which in our view will trigger either an earlier-than-expected end to the tightening cycle or a faster pace of rate cuts in 2023. Housing troubles: The RBNZ recently published its financial stability report, where it showed relatively limited concern about households’ ability to withstand the forthcoming downturn in house prices. In its August 2022 forecasts, the RBNZ estimated that the YoY contraction in house prices will reach 11.6% in the first quarter of 2023. However, that implied an Official Cash Rate at 4.0%, so only 50bp of extra tightening from now, which seems too conservative now. House prices have fallen 7.5% from their first quarter 2022 peak so far, but the trend may well accelerate, especially given a hawkish RBNZ and the risk of slowing global demand hitting the very open New Zealand economy. External drivers and valuation: Even assuming a constructive domestic picture in the housing market and an attractive yield for the currency in 2023, external factors will determine how much NZD can draw any benefit. As for AUD, risk sentiment and China are the two central themes. The New Zealand dollar is more exposed to risk sentiment (as it is less liquid and higher-yielding) than AUD, but probably less exposed to China’s story. In particular, the real estate troubles in China may well hit Australia via the iron ore channel, while NZ exports (primarily dairy products) are much more linked to China’s Covid restrictions, which look likely to be gradually scaled back. In our base case, the two currencies should largely move in tandem next year. The real NZD/USD rate is 15% undervalued, according to our BEER model. EUR/DKK: Tricky mix of intervention and rates   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/DKK 7.44 Neutral 7.44 7.44 7.44 7.44 7.45 Central bank policy: Danmarks Nationalbank delivered FX intervention worth DKK45bn in September and October to defend the EUR/DKK peg. On 27 October, it opted for a smaller rate hike (60bp) compared to the ECB (75bp), which briefly sent EUR/DKK close to the 7.4460 February highs before rapidly falling back to 7.4380/90. We think it will be a busy year ahead for the central bank, as we expect very limited idiosyncratic EUR strength and potentially more pressure on EUR/DKK. Having now exited negative rate territory, DN has much more room to adjust the policy rate for a wider rate differential with the ECB if needed. However, with inflation running above 10% in Denmark, DN may prefer FX intervention over dovish monetary policy to support the peg. We have recently revised our EUR/DKK forecast, and expect a return to 7.4600 only in 2024. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more  

There are 2 interesting thing if we look at the 4 hour chart of the USD index: 1. There is a deviation between price movement with CCI indicator. 2. The appearance of Bullish Reversal Inverted Head And Shoulders pattern. According to both of the fact belowin the near future it seems that #USDX will appreciate rallying upwards to break above the level of 107.24. If this level is successfully passed then #USDX has the potential to reach the level of the Fair value Gap area of 108.69-110.22 with the Mean Threshold at the level of 109.45 but if it is on its way to the target -The target level mentioned above suddenly reverses back down to pass the level of 105.69 then it is very likely that the bull setup that has been described above will cancel itself.   Relevance up to 02:00 2022-11-22 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/114227

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through 107.05 intraday on Monday as we had predicted last week. The index is seen to be trading close to 106.95 at this point in writing as the bears prepare to come back in control. It might be safe to exit long positions taken last week as 106.95-107-05 could be a potential resistance zone. The US dollar index is facing the Fibonacci 0.382 resistance of the recent downswing between 110.60 and 104.90. Also, the immediate resistance trend line is passing through the 107.05-10 zone. A probability remains high for a bearish turn from here and a drop towards 104.30 in the next few trading sessions. A break above 110.60 would void the bearish outlook. The US dollar index is facing immediate resistance around 110.60, followed by 112.67; while support comes in around 104.30 as marked on the 4H timeframe. If the bears are successful in taking control back from here, they would target 104.00 next. On the flip side, a push towards 109.00 will bring the bulls back in control. Trading idea: Potential drop towards 104.00 against 109.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301765

The week ended with mixed dynamics, mainly due to increased volatility and uncertainty of future levels of interest rate hikes. After the US released its latest data on inflation, stocks rallied strongly, while Treasury yields and dollar fell. It seems that the harsh statements of some Fed representatives cooled down the ardor of investors and returned to the markets the increased degrees of uncertainty. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly actually made it clear with their statements that the latest inflation data may not be an important factor in the central bank's decision to not only end the cycle of rising rates, but also slow its pace. While Daly noted that she expects the discount rate to rise to 5.25%, Bullard agreed that the overall rate level could be between 5% and 7%. These words show that the stance of some Fed members remain hawkish, indicating that they believe it is too early to see the decline in US inflation as a serious signal for loosening the super-tight monetary course. This raises the possibility that another rate hike of 0.75% may be decided at the December meeting, although markets had hoped that the rate might be raised by as little as 0.50%. This is where the minutes from the bank's last meeting, which will be released this Wednesday, could play the most important role. If it shows that Daly and Bullard's position prevails, markets will see another wave of sell-offs, followed by the increase of Treasury yields and dollar. Market volatility will also be high, stimulated by uncertainty, which will be the reason of sideways trend. All this will take place during low market volumes caused by the release of the lates Fed minutes and Thanksgiving holiday in the US on November 24. Uncertainty will remain high until the Fed's future rate stance is clarified. Forecasts for today: GBP/USD The pair is trading at 1.1740-1.1965. It is likely to stay in this range today. USD/CAD The pair is rising amid falling crude oil prices and traders waiting for the release of the latest Fed minutes. Quotes are a little above 1.3400, and a consolidation will prompt a local growth to 1.3475. Relevance up to 07:00 2022-11-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/327618

Summary:  With FOMC meeting minutes out and two Fed speakers to stand up, the USD is on watch along with equities that could be at risk of taking a haircut. Any hint of more hawkish comments could spark a knee-jerk reaction to the upside in the USD, which means equities could move into a risk-off mode. Focus is also on NZD with RBNZ poised to hike by 0.75%. The NZDAUD is worth watching given the RBNZ is hiking harder than the RBA can, which theoretically supports NZDAUD. In China, attention will be on how local authorities respond to outbreaks and how commodities respond. Companies that make most of their revenue from China are also in focus like Fortescue Metals (FMG). Plus why buy now pay later equities are again on notice. And the Saxo Strats 2022 World Cup Predictions are here. FOMC minutes and more Fed speakers to be key for terminal rate pricing The FOMC minutes from the November 2 meeting are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, just ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. The key message delivered by Powell at this meeting was that the pace of rate hikes will slow down as needed, and that will likely remain the highlight of the minutes as well. However, Powell managed to deliver this message hawkishly at the press conference, but the risk from the minutes remains tilted to the dovish side. There is likely to be little consensus about whether the rates are in restrictive territory or there’s still room for that, and the divide within the committee remains key to watch as investors remain on the edge to expect a Fed pivot sometime in 2023. We have heard multiple Fed speakers over the past week, after a significant downside surprise in US CPI prompted a move lower in Fed’s terminal rate projections and fuelled significant easing of financial conditions as equity and bond markets rallied and the US dollar weakened. Waller and Bullard have tilted on the hawkish side, while the usual-dove Brainard remained more balanced as she repeated the message on cumulative tightening and being data-dependent. Daly, Mester, George and Bullard will be on the wires this week. In China, attention will be on how local authorities respond to outbreaks and implement pandemic control measures. Watch how commodities respond The economic calendar in China is light this week. However authorities may respond to China’s first Covid-related death in almost six months and the surge in new cases, which have hit their highest levels since April last year. There is concern there could be tighter restrictions, while China implements its new 20-point tweaking covid restriction plan, aimed at minimising disruptions to people’s daily lives and the economy, while adhering to zero-Covid. Officials will find it difficult to balance this, as well as the surge in cases. As such, commodities pegged to Chinese demand are front and centre again this week. The iron ore price is lower on Monday down 4% on fears China could increase restrictions, but the key steel ingredient holds onto a gain of 23% this month. This means stocks that make most of their revenue from China are also in focus like Fortescue Metals (FMG) which is up 30% this month, after China announced a somewhat property rescue package. Oil prices will continue to remain volatile as well as global growth and China lockdowns remain on watch, and the deadline for European sanctions on Russia crude also looms. Flash PMIs on the radar for US, UK and EU The S&P flash PMIs for the US, EU and UK will be released in the week, and will likely test the soft landing rhetoric that has been gaining traction. We will likely see further broad-based easing in the metrics from the October prints, as consumer spending remains constrained amid high inflation and a rise in interest rates. While expectations for December remain tilted towards a downshift in rate hikes for the Fed, ECB and the BOE, the upcoming data point will be more key in determining the terminal rate pricing. Markets are now back at pricing 5% levels for the Fed, but the ECB’s pricing for the terminal rate is still sub-3% while UK’s is 4.7% with fiscal austerity being delayed. RBNZ’s hawkishness to continue to outperform while Riksbank to play catchup The monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be key on Wednesday to determine the direction of NZD, which has seen strong gains over the past month from higher hawkishness. After a series of 50bps rate hikes, there are some expectations that RBNZ could deliver a 75bps rate hike this week, as inflation and labour market conditions support the case for further front-loading. Inflation has reached 7.2% YoY in Q3 – well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target. Most members of the RBNZ shadow board also supported a 75bps rate hike. Meanwhile, the Riksbank has been lagging other G10 central banks in tightening policy and is now playing catch up after delivering a 100bp hike in September. The Riksbank is expected to deliver a 75bps hike on Thursday while another 100bps hike can’t be ruled out. Key earnings to watch this week; from Virgin, to Dell to two Chinese companies  Virgin Money, which is one of the UK’s biggest banks reports earnings this week, as well as the agricultural giant Deere & Co and the PC juggernaut, Dell. Separately, as discussed in Peter Garnry’s note, the highlight may be from Kuaishou Technology and Xioami, as Chinese equities have recently rallied amid the country’s fine-tune pandemic control measures. Nonetheless, increasing regulation in the private and technology sectors have still caused headwinds. The two Chinese earnings results are not expected to be blockbusters, but their outlooks may give investors a glimpse through the curtain. Buy now pay later equities again on notice Buy now pay later (BNPL) companies could be further bruised this week, with the Australian government considering policies that could see BNPL firms subject to the same rules as credit card providers. This could not only affect Australian firms but global companies which operate in Australia, such as Block (SQ, SQ2) - which owns Afterpay and Affirm (AFRM). The Australian government is weighing up options to strengthen the BNPL Industry Code, and perhaps introduce an affordability test or put the BNPL companies under the Credit Act. Such a move would ensure BNPL companies that operate in Australia, would work within the guardrails as other credit providers. Companies to watch include Zip, Block and Affirm. Sentiment could also flow to other BNPL companies including Japan’s GMO Payment Gateway and India’s Paytm. Saxo Strats 2022 World Cup Predictions: the Netherlands has the highest probability of being the champion In this article, Peter Garnry, Saxo’s Head of Equity Strategy shows how Saxo Strats used quantitative analysis to predict the winner of the 2022 World Cup and came up with a non-consensus result: expecting the Netherlands to win.   Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week Monday, Nov 21 Germany Producer Prices (Oct) Taiwan Export Orders (Oct) Tuesday, Nov 22 New Zealand Trade (Oct) Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Nov, flash) Wednesday, Nov 23 Japan Market Holiday Australia S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services Germany S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services France S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services Eurozone S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services US S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services New Zealand Cash Rate (23 Nov) Singapore Consumer Price Index (Oct) United States Durable Goods (Oct) United States Initial Jobless Claims United States UoM Sentiment (Nov, final) United States New Home Sales (Oct) US Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes (Nov) Thursday, Nov 24 US Market Holiday Japan au Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing PMI South Korea Bank of Korea Base Rate (Nov) Japan Leading Indicator (Sep) Germany Ifo Business Climate (Nov) Friday, Nov 25 US Market Holiday (Partial) New Zealand Retail Sales (Q3) Singapore GDP (Q3, final) United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov) Germany GDP (Q3) Germany GfK Consumer Sentiment (Dec)   Key earnings releases this week Monday: Virgin, Compass, Agilent Technologies, Zoom Video, Dell Technologies Tuesday: Kuaishou Technology, Medtronic, Analog Devices, VMware, Autodesk, Dollar Tree, Baidu, HP, Best Buy Wednesday: Xioami, Prosus, Deere Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/saxo-spotlight--21-nov-2022-no-video-21112022

The Dollar Index has risen since last Tuesday, adding 2.5% to lows at 105.16. Speculators paused selling off the US currency in response to data and comments from Fed officials implying a higher interest rate target. The outlook The dollar's pullback could also be described as a market breather, implying a pause after a rather aggressive decline of almost 7% from November 4th to 15th. Despite this rebound, major investment houses call the dollar generally overvalued and point out that now could be a good time for a trend reversal. We have discussed this before, noting both fundamental shifts (other central banks have caught up with the Fed in rate hikes, and the latter is signalling a rate cut) and historical patterns (the dollar's response to global reversals cycles in monetary policy last about a year). Short-term perspective Nevertheless, from a short-term perspective, traders are better to be prepared that the DXY could rise to 108 or even 109 from the current 107.7 before we see the start of a new leg down. The dollar has been selling off at an elevated pace since November 4th. A consolidation below the 50-day MA is considered an essential first signal for breaking the trend. Interestingly, this line has quickly reversed from an uptrend to a downtrend, indicating that the overall tendency has changed. Analysis The next and more reliable signal on the technical analysis side should be an anchoring below the 200-day MA, which the USD bulls effectively defended last week. Apart from that crucial curve, which the big market-makers use for trend-following purposes, the 61.8% retracement level of the DXY from the lows of January 2021 to the highs of late September passes around 105. The FX dynamics The most conservative technical approach suggests that the current DXY drawdown is a correction after the 20-month rise, followed by a new wave of growth. Nevertheless, the FX dynamics of DM currencies are just an example where we can say that trees don't grow to the sky. The rule of mean reversal works here unless something breaks globally in the economy. The only such global breakdown would be the insolvency of Japan or another major country or the eurozone’s breakup. So far, while there is no such threat on the horizon, the end of the dollar 20-month uptrend is the main scenario. What to expect? If we are right, the dollar bears are taking profits and gaining liquidity before a new wave of a sell-off in the DXY, which might start this week or next week from levels between 108 and 109 and push it back below 100 before the end of the year.

Over the weekend, Federal Reserve officials made statements that might imply a slowdown in aggressive rate hikes. However, these statements could hardly support the US stock market yet. Investors are likely to scrutinize the November meeting minutes to confirm Fed's policy reversal. The minutes will be released later this week. President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Susan Collins recently expressed confidence that policymakers could curb inflation without doing too much damage to employment. "By raising rates, we are aiming to slow the economy and bring labor demand into better balance with supply," Collins said in prepared remarks for a Boston Fed conference on the labor market. "The intent is not a significant downturn. But restoring price stability remains the current imperative and it is clear that there is more work to do."     Meanwhile, as a result of a recent series of rate hikes, the central bank's overnight borrowing rate was increased to 3.75-4%. In addition, virtually all Fed officials have said they expect more increases to come. Collins also noted that it was important to bring inflation down and acknowledged that the Fed's moves could be costly. "I remain optimistic that there is a pathway to re-establishing labor market balance with only a modest rise in the unemployment rate – while remaining realistic about the risks of a larger downturn," Collins said. Premarket Carvana fell by 3.2% after an internal announcement that the company planned to lay off about 1,500 employees or 8% of its workforce. Carvana lost another 4.6% during premarket trading today. Rent the Runway fell by 12% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the online clothing reseller's stock to "neutral" from "buy." Rent the Runway said the situation with their business was more volatile now than it was expected, indicating difficulties to receive profits. Farfetch declined by 17% after the company failed to meet economists' top-line and bottom-line growth expectations for Q3 this year. Shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase dropped by more than 8.0% but then managed to recover slightly after Bank of America downgraded the company to "neutral" from "buy," saying that the FTX collapse increases the risk of contagion for other platforms and companies in the industry. The stock is currently down by more than 6.0% during premarket trading.     As for the S&P 500 index, after Friday's surge, the pressure on the index has returned. Currently, bulls need to protect the support level of $3,942. As long as the index is trading above this level, the demand for risky assets may remain. This is likely to strengthen the trading instrument and return the levels of $3,968 and $4,003 under control. If the level of $4,038 is broken through, the price may continue the upward correction and reach the resistance level of $4,064. The next target is located in the area of $4,091. If the S&P 500 index declines, bulls should prevent the price from falling below $3,942. If this level is pierced from above, the trading instrument may be pushed down to $3,905, opening the way to a new support level of $3,861. Relevance up to 13:00 2022-11-22 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/327690

Today's trading day began with the dollar on the offensive. The dollar index (DXY) futures also opened today's trading day with a small gap up after a lackluster gain in the previous three trading days. As of writing, DXY futures were trading at 107.74, 79 points above today's opening price and 88 points above last Friday's closing price. The dollar index ended last week with a small token gain of 17 points. Investors are still under the impression of disappointing consumer inflation data, which showed its slowdown. For instance, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell in October from 8.2% to 7.7% year-on-year, stronger than the estimate of an 8.0% decline. Core CPI adjusted to 6.3% versus a forecast of 6.5% year-on-year and 6.6% last month. The Fed's efforts to rein in U.S. inflation are definitely paying off. This raises the possibility that the pace of monetary tightening may soon slow down. Prior to the release of these inflation indicators, it was widely expected that interest rates would be raised again by 0.75% (to 4.75%) at the December meeting (December 13 and 14). However, some Fed officials have already made cautious statements to the effect that a slowdown in monetary policy tightening is possible in the near term, although inflation remains too high, according to them, and much work remains to be done to bring it back to the 2.0% target level. Thus, the likelihood of a 75 basis point Fed rate hike in December has declined. On the contrary, market participants are now pricing in an 80% chance of a 50 bps Fed interest rate hike in December, according to the CME Group. If the released U.S. inflation numbers disappoint investors, it will trigger a new wave of dollar selling and bring the DXY down to 109.00.     As of writing, DXY futures were trading near 110.46, staying negative and moving to the bottom of last month's new downward channel (on the DXY chart). A break of these levels may trigger a deeper drop in DXY, down to the key support levels of 107.40, 105.65. And that's exactly what happened: the price broke through the lower border of the descending channel on the DXY chart at 109.00 and reached a local low of 105.15 in the next three days. However, near this local low, the dollar sellers' strength ran out, and by now, as we noted above, the DXY dollar index is up to 107.74. If you look at the daily chart of the USD index (shown as CFD #USDX in the MT4 trading platform), you can clearly see that the price failed to break through the key support level 105.65 (200 EMA). And in the next four days, the price rebounded from that level and rose, making an attempt to break above the long-term level 107.40 (144 EMA in the daily chart of CFD #USDX) at the moment. In our previous review of DXY, we wrote that above the key support level of 105.65, the dollar index remains in the zone of a long-term bull market. With the appearance of signals to buy, long positions in DXY will again become preferable. Now the first such signal will be the return of the price to the zone above the resistance level of 107.40, and the confirming one will be the growth to the zone above the levels of 109.00, 110.00.     As you can see, the price, so far, is moving as we suggested earlier. But, as always, we must also consider an alternative scenario. Today's economic calendar is not rich in the publication of important macro statistics for the U.S., and this entire trading week in the US will be shorter than usual: on Thursday, November 24, banks and stock exchanges in this country will be closed on the occasion of Thanksgiving Day. This day marks the start of the holiday season. It includes Christmas and continues until the New Year. November 25 is a shortened working day in the United States as part of the continuation of Thanksgiving Day celebrations. In early December, major financial market players will gradually begin to sum up the results of the outgoing year, which turned out to be generally successful for the dollar and, on the contrary, disappointing for buyers of the American stock market, although they will probably still be able to please the traditional New Year's Eve rally. But it is not a fact that it will take place this year. Nevertheless, one should not discount the intention of the Fed leaders to continue tightening monetary conditions for the time being, and this is not good for American private business. Relevance up to 12:00 2022-11-26 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/327672

The dollar recovered somewhat from its recent drubbing on the back of a steady drumbeat of hawkish Federal Reserve speeches. Data out of the US and the Eurozone was very light last week, and what there was came out generally better than expected and reinforced the message that the main problem confronting major central banks is still inflation. Sterling was the star of the week, finishing near the top of the rankings on the back of strong inflation and employment data. Beyond G10, it was a tough week for Latin American currencies, which fell back amid weaker commodity prices and concerns about misguided fiscal policies.   With the US trading week shortened by the Thanksgiving holidays, the financial calendar will be dominated by the release of the PMI indices of business activity. We’ll be paying particularly close attention to those in the Eurozone and the UK. Consensus forecasts are gloomy, opening the possibility of a positive surprise. The calendar for central banker speeches is unusually busy this week, including several from the European Central Bank and no fewer than four from the Bank of England. Figure 1: G10 FX Performance Tracker [base: USD] (1 week) Source: Bloomberg Date: 21/11/2022 GBP The labor report last week out of the UK supported our view that the UK recession will be short and shallow. Payrolls continue to increase at a healthy pace even while unemployment numbers are consistent with an economy at or perhaps above full employment, with no hint of job destruction as yet. Inflation soared more than expected in October, to 11.1%, its highest level since 1981. It would have been even higher if not for the government’s Energy Price Guarantee which capped household energy bills. Figure 2: UK Inflation (2013 – 2022) Source: Bloomberg Date: 21/11/2022 The Fiscal Statement contained aggressive deficit cuts, as expected, but for the most part, they were back loaded and should have little effect in the short and medium term. We think market expectations that the Bank of England can stop hiking rates well short of 5% are fanciful and expect the sterling to outperform as market consensus moves closer to our view. EUR Last week we had no macroeconomic or policy news of note out of the Eurozone, so the common currency was left to bounce around aimlessly to end near the middle of the rankings, nearly flat against the US dollar after its record rally the week prior. All eyes now turn to the PMI indices of business activity, perhaps the most reliable leading index there. Expectations are for another drop further into contractionary levels. Other sentiment indices have outperformed expectations, and the mood appears to be better than it was last month. A positive surprise there would go a long way to pushing the euro rally further. USD As in the Eurozone, economic data was mostly second tier last week, but what there was really belied the notion that the US economy is in recession. Retail sales blew out expectations growing 1.3% in the month of October. Meanwhile, producer inflation also took a turn lower, after the CPI did so the previous week. Figure 3: US Retail Sales [% MoM] (2017 – 2022) Source: Bloomberg Date: 21/11/2022 On Monday, the latest GDP figures showed that the Japanese economy contracted by 1.2% annualised in Q3 (+1.1% expected), though there was an upwards revision to the Q2 data. While this would vindicate the bank’s current stance, Thursday’s data showed that inflation rose to a new three decade high (3.7%). Whether this is enough to change the BoJ tune remains to be seen. We suspect that it won’t, although continued signs of an acceleration in domestic price pressures would likely pressure policymakers into at least considering a hawkish pivot. CHF The Swiss franc was among the underperformers last week, selling off by about 1% against the euro and the US dollar. Attention in Switzerland is increasingly turning towards the Swiss National Bank December meeting. Following his hawkish comments in the week previous, SNB chairman Thomas Jordan again suggested that further policy tightening may be required. Later in the week, SNB member Andrea Machler stated that the bank will indeed continue hiking if the forecast points to inflation above 2%. After a string of hawkish signals from the central bank, we have little doubt that these words will be followed by actions and another hike in December is all but certain. Meanwhile, declines in SNB sight deposits have been more limited in recent weeks, compared to the sharp drops witnessed in late-September and early-October. This suggests that the SNB has been less active in absorbing excess liquidity. In the coming days, our focus will be primarily on outside news, as Switzerland’s economic calendar is almost completely empty. AUD A rather quiet week by recent standards in global financial markets allowed for consolidation in the Aussie dollar last week. Somewhat surprisingly, we saw little reaction in AUD to last week’s rather strong October labour report. Another 32.2k net jobs were added in the Australian economy last month, all in full-time positions and well above expectations, while the unemployment rate also unexpectedly dropped back to 3.4%. Meanwhile, the RBA’s latest meeting minutes didn’t offer too many clues as to the direction of the bank’s next policy move, leaving the door open to both a pause in the hike cycle and larger hikes should data dictate. Figure 4: Employment Change in Australia [‘000] (2016 – 2022) Source: Bloomberg Date: 21/11/2022 We suspect that activity in AUD could pick up in the first half of this week. On Tuesday, the latest business activity PMIs will be released, which are expected to ease modestly from the previous month. A speech by RBA Governor Lowe (Tuesday) will also be closely watched. NZD One of the main event risks in the FX market this week will be Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting. This week’s meeting is a very difficult one to call, with markets torn between a 50bp and 75bp rate hike. On the one hand, the uncertainty of global growth and the recent downturn in the domestic housing market could elicit a more cautious response. On the other, however, New Zealand inflation remains far too high for comfort, the labour market is in good shape and indicators of economic activity are holding up reasonably well. On balance, we think that the RBNZ will deliver a jumbo 75bp rate hike, though it is a very tough call that could go either way. Markets are pricing in around 65bps of tightening, so a 75bp move would be bullish for the New Zealand dollar. Much will, of course, depend on the bank’s accompanying communications. We suspect that these will strike a hawkish note, stressing the need for additional hikes into 2023, and we see risks to NZD as skewed to the upside heading into the meeting. CAD A drop in global oil prices toward the end of last week weighed slightly on the Canadian dollar, though the currency managed to largely hold its own against the USD. Brent crude oil briefly dropped back below the $86 a barrel level on Friday, its lowest level since late-September, as investors feared weaker demand from China and continued increases in US rates following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. There was actually very little major macroeconomic developments out of Canada last week, which partly contributed to the relative lack of volatility in the USD/CAD pair. This week looks set to be similarly quiet. Retail sales data (Tuesday) could garner some attention among market participants, though this will likely go under the radar. Expect the Canadian dollar to be largely driven by events elsewhere. SEK The increase in market risk aversion at the end of last week, due in part to escalating geopolitical tensions, weighed on the Swedish krona, which depreciated by almost 3% against the euro. This meant that SEK, which is one of the higher-risk major currencies in the world, ended the week as one of the worst performers in the G10. Figure 5: Inflation in Sweden [% YoY] (2012 – 2022) Source: Bloomberg Date: 21/11/2022 Rising domestic inflation, which soared to a 31-year high of 10.9% in October, perhaps contributed to this depreciation, as markets perceive this as further deteriorating the already bleak economic outlook. That said, we believe that the continued rise in inflation may force the Riksbank into raising its base rate aggressively at its meeting on Thursday. Our base case is for a 75 basis point rate hike, which could support the krona this week as this is not yet fully priced in. However, should the central bank suggest that it is increasingly concerned about the growth outlook, rather than fighting inflation, this could point to a moderate in the tightening cycle, which would be bearish for SEK. NOK In a similar fashion to SEK, the Norwegian krone did not have a good week, depreciating by more than 2% against the euro and the US dollar. Last week’s better-than-expected growth data limited some of the currency’s losses, although it was clear that investor sentiment remained one of the main drivers in markets. Figure 6: Norway GDP Growth (2012 – 2022) Source: Bloomberg Date: 21/11/2022 The Norwegian economy advanced 1.5% in Q3, following an upwardly revised 1.3% growth in Q2 – the largest expansion in a year. Mainland GDP, our preferred measure of growth that strips out the volatile oil and gas production component, also increased by a larger-than-expected 0.8% in Q3. In our opinion, the resilience of the Norwegian economy, together with the lack of a peak in domestic price pressures, suggest that Norges Bank may have to raise rates higher and deeper into next year than currently expected, which could support the krone. With no relevant domestic data out this week, we think that risk sentiment will be the main driver of NOK. CNY The Chinese yuan was little changed against the US dollar last week and ended roughly in the middle of the EM dashboard. Plans to ease some of China’s Covid restrictions, and efforts to support the country’s property sector, from the week before seem to have continued to work towards stabilising sentiment towards the yuan last week. Hard data for October released on Tuesday was largely on the weaker side, but not too different from expectations. While some of last week’s yuan fixings were rather strong, it seems that the easing pressure on the currency has allowed a shift towards a less aggressive stance from the PBOC. However, monetary authorities seem to be mindful of the exchange rate and don’t appear willing to engage in further policy easing, despite the economic slowdown. China’s MLF rate was left unchanged last week but, contrary to expectations, not all maturing loans were rolled over. This week, the loan-prime rates were also left unchanged. In the coming days, we’ll focus primarily on the coronavirus situation, as a recent increase in infections pushed the authorities to introduce local restrictions, dampening sentiment towards the yuan at the turn of the week. Economic Calendar (21/11/2022 – 25/11/2022) To stay up to date with our publications, please choose one of the below: 📩 Click here to receive the latest market updates👉 Our LinkedIn page for the latest news✍️ Our Blog page for other FX market reports 🔊 Stay up to date with our podcast FXTalk    

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rose through the 107.60 highs on Monday before finding resistance. The index has pulled back since then and is seen to be trading close to 107.30 at this point in writing. It is safe to assume that the instrument is poised to turn lower towards 104.30 until the price settles below 109.00. We are looking lower in the near term. The US dollar index has hit a resistance zone around the 107.60-65 mark as seen on the 4H chart here. It has tested the immediate resistance trend line and also the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the recent downswing between 110.60 and 104.90. A high probability remains for a bearish turn from here and a decline lower towards 104.30. The US dollar index has been unfolding a larger-degree corrective wave lower from the 114.67 highs earlier. The corrective drop might have unfolded as a complex structure and could be into its last wave lower towards 104.30 levels. The bulls might be back in control thereafter and push prices higher towards 114.67 and further. Technical idea: Potential drop to 104.30 against 109.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301964

USD/CAD picks up bids to pare intraday losses, the first in three days. Fading risk-on mood, recently downbeat prices of Oil keep the pair buyers hopeful. Hawkish hopes from Fed, the market’s cautious sentiment can add strength to the recovery moves. Canada Retail Sales, US PMIs and FOMC are this week’s key catalysts. USD/CAD bears struggle to keep the reins around 1.3430-40 during early Tuesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Loonie pair prints the first daily loss in three amid the broad US Dollar sellers. However, fresh challenges for Canada’s key export item, namely the WTI Crude Oil, join recently easing optimism to underpin the bullish bias as the pair traders await Canadian Retail Sales for September. WTI Crude Oil retreats to $79.90 while reversing the early Asian session rebound from the yearly low. The black gold prices recently dropped amid chatters that the key global oil producers, namely the OPEC+ group, are likely to keep the latest oil production accord until 2023, which in turn suggests more output. On the other hand, the latest Covid woes from China weigh on the demand concerns and drown the energy benchmark. Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounds from its intraday low but still prints mild losses around 107.70 on a day amid recently downbeat comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Also likely to have weighed on the USD/CAD could be the softer second-tier activity data from the US. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said in a CNBC interview, “I think we can slow down from 75 at the December meeting.” Previously, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic also turned down the 75 bps move and challenged the US Dollar bulls. Additionally, downbeat prints of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October, to -0.05 compared to 0.17 prior, also allow the US Dollar buyers to take a breather. Even so, escalating COVID-19 fears from China, as the nation reports the seven-month high virus numbers and rush to lock down the major hubs, underpin the bullish bias over the USD/CAD pair. Further, the hopes of aggressive Fed rate hikes especially after the previous week’s strong US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) keep the Loonie pair buyers hopeful. Looking forward, USD/CAD traders will pay attention to Canadian Retail Sales for September, expected -0.7% MoM versus 0.7% prior, for clear directions. However, preliminary readings of the monthly activity data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are the key catalysts for the pair. Technical analysis The previous support line stretched from August 11, as well as the 21-Day Moving Average (DMA), respectively near 1.3460 and 1.3480, challenges the USD/CAD buyers.      

Summary:  The gold ship has steadied following a four-day correction that was triggered by long liquidation from funds in the futures market after it failed to break key resistance. With ETF investors still missing on the buy side, the dollar's inverse correlation remains a key source of directional inspiration as the metal now search for suppport in the $1735 area. Saxo's Daily Financial Markets Quick TakePodcast: Crypto and Tesla bubbleverse under siege The gold ship has steadied following a four-day correction that was triggered by the yellow metals inability to break resistance at $1788 per ounce. That failure triggered long liquidation from funds who had just added the most length in COMEX gold futures since June 2019. That reduction is now showing signs of having run its course with buying emerging at the former resistance level, now support at $1735. In a recent gold update before the metal sector received a boost from a weaker dollar and lower US bond yields, we highlighted the importance of $1735 as the trigger for a potential change in the trading behavior from selling into strength to buying into weakness. It is this potential change in sentiment that is now being tested.  Overall, the dollar's inverse correlation to precious metals and commodities remains a key source of directional inspiration for traders and algorithmic trading strategies. Since the November 3 low at $1615, gold has bounced by around 7% while the broad Bloomberg Dollar index trades down by close to 5%. In addition the recovery in gold has been supported by a 30 basis point drop in US ten-year real yields and a key part of the US yield curve inverting the most since the early 1980’s, thereby signaling an increased risk of a recession hitting the US economy next year.  A recession hitting before inflation has been brought under control remains one of our main reasons for keeping a bullish outlook for gold into 2023, but with ETF investors still cutting exposure despite the recent recovery, the metal needs continued support from declines in yields and the US dollar or some other catalyst that sees a run to safety. Hedge funds were aggressive buyers of COMEX gold futures during a two-week period up until last Tuesday, November 15. During this time they bought 80,000 contracts or 8 million ounces, the strongest two-week buying pace since June 2019. As a result the net positions flipped from a short to 41k contract net long, a three-month high. However, the failure to break above key resistance in the $1800 area has left the metal exposed to a setback, hence the renewed focus on resistance-turned-support at $1735.  One of the reasons why gold did not break higher last week was the continued absence of longer-term focused buyers through bullion-backed ETFs. Since the November 3 low and later rally, total holdings have seen a 210,000 ounce decline to the current 94.2 million ounces, thereby extending an almost non-stop pace of reductions since April. With ETF investors still sitting on the fence, another key source of support appeared during the third quarter from central banks. The Gold Demand Trends Q3 2022 update from the World Gold Council out earlier this month showed central bank demand reached a quarterly record of nearly 12.9 million ounces, thereby offsetting a 7.3 million ounce outflow from bullion-backed ETFs.  At Saxo, we maintain a long-held view that the inflation outlook will likely surprise to the upside with a 4% to 5% range over the next decade not being that outrageous. Driven by a new geopolitical situation where the world is splitting into two parts with everything evolving around deglobalization driven by the need for self-reliance. Together with the energy transition, we are facing a decade that will be commodity and capital intensive, and where scarcity of raw materials and labor will keep inflation elevated for longer and higher than the 2.6% level currently being priced in through the swaps market.  Such a scenario combined with the risk of an economic slowdown forcing a roll over in central bank rate hike expectations, sending real yields and the dollar lower, may in our opinion create powerful tailwinds for gold and silver during 2023.  Having failed to break resistance at $1789, the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 selloff, the recent bounce can still only be described as a weak correction within a downtrend, and for that to change the break above is needed. In the short term the focus stays on $1735 support and the markets ability to attract fresh buying interest. Failure to do so would likely trigger more selling, initially to $1722 and potentially as deep as $1700.  Source: Saxo   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/gold-stabilising-ahead-of-support-22112022

// 🔥 DXY Strongest Decline Since 2020: Market Bottom Is In? by FieryTrading on TradingView.com Trend Analysis Technical Indicators Chart Patterns    Around two months ago I made an analysis on the DXY ( dollar index ) and the fact that it was trading on a massive 14-year resistance. I argued that a top was possible, but still too early to tell. After looking at the chart, I think we can definitely argue that a potential top for the dollar is in. Consequently, this would be bullish for both the crypto and stock markets.Not sure if we're going to the bottom support area directly, I see it more plausible that the DXY will trade sideways for a couple of weeks/months.Be aware that a falling DXY is bullish for crypto, but that doesn't mean it will go up. The market is still licking its wounds from the FTX fiasco, and more insolvencies are on the horizon. Be wary. 💰Lower Your Trading Fees: https://taplink.cc/fierytrading📈Try my Premium Signals for 🚨FREE🚨: https://t.me/FT_Futures_free🔥Premium channel & 💎Contact: http://www.fierytrading.com🎯Crypto Signals & EXCLUSIVE analyses: https://t.me/FieryTradingChannel Website Source: Trader FieryTrading — Trading Ideas & Charts — TradingView

The Canadian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3400, down 0.39%. Canada’s retail sales decline The Canadian consumer was not in a spending mood in September, as retail sales declined by 0.5%, following a 0.4% gain a month earlier. The forecast stood at -0.4%. Core retail sales fell by 0.7%, worse than the consensus of -0.4% and the prior reading of 0.5%. Despite the weak data, the Canadian dollar has managed to post gains today, thanks to a broad US dollar pullback. Read next: Elon Musk net worth has dropped by 37% in 2022| FXMAG.COM The drop in retail sales will put a damper on expectations of a 50-basis point hike at the December meeting, as the Bank of Canada will likely deliver a modest 25-bp hike. Inflation, the bank’s number one priority, remains very high at 6.9%, as the BoC’s aggressive rate-hike cycle is yet to show results. The benchmark rate is currently at 3.75%, and like the Federal Reserve, there’s more life remaining in the current rate-tightening cycle. The BoC is closely monitoring employment and retail sales data, as strong numbers will make it easier for the bank to continue hiking as policy makers look for that elusive peak in inflation. The recent US inflation report triggered a wave of exuberance, sending equity markets higher and the US dollar on a nasty slide. Investors became more confident that Fed was close to a pivot in its aggressive policy and risk sentiment soared. The Fed has pushed back hard, with Fed members delivering hawkish statements and projections, which has chilled risk appetite and stabilized the US dollar. Fed member Mary Daly weighed in on Monday, stating that inflation remained unacceptably high and projecting that the fed funds rate will peak at 4.75%-5.00%. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD tested resistance at 1.3455 earlier in the day. Next, there is resistance at 1.3523 There is support at 1.3341 and 1.3218 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Recently, we've asked Alex Kuptsikevich about current situtation on markets. Cryptocurrency market remains in an unstable situation so do indices. What's more we're on the verge of release of crucial macro data from the USA such as core durable good orders and building permits which go public later today. Indices - are we past dips yet? Despite some slippage in the indices over the last two weeks, it is more likely that the bottom has already been passed. Our expectations have quite a few "buts" and "ifs". Nevertheless, the working scenario assumes that the peak of fear by the markets has already passed. The Fed is preparing the markets for further rate hikes but is prepared to slow down. Inflation data and lower commodity prices and freight costs play into this scenario. In the current environment, the different indices are moving up at different speeds, and some points are not making new highs as dramatically. Still, nevertheless, their move up has probably already begun. In the indices, we see the Dow Jones outperforming the Nasdaq, as the latter is and will remain under pressure from interest. The indices also behaved the same way, starting their recovery in 2002, when they had to rise at non-zero interest rates. Read next: NFT Tokens, the phenomenon & the concept - take a deeper look into the world of NFTs| FXMAG.COM Crypto crash...? The latest cryptocurrency crash promises to repeat the history of the previous crypto-winter when a year-long decline was followed by a 16-week sideways slump from November 2018 to March 2019. But in this case, it is worth looking for analogies not with the duration but with the fragility of the recovery that will follow even after the market has settled down. Core Durable Goods Orders and Building Permits are released this week - how crucial are these prints ahead of the December Fed meeting? The Fed is likely to focus now on inflation and employment, which have already thundered away, and a new batch (NFP) is not expected until late next week. Durable goods orders - as an indicator of business sentiment - could worry the markets if they diverge significantly from expectations. It would be especially unpleasant for the markets if they see firm orders growth - it would be seen as a signal for the Fed to continue raising rates as fast as possible. New-home sales are likely to continue to fall - and there is no game changer here for the Fed: this market was bloated, is now deflating, and there is still a long way to go before a depression. The biggest attention of market participants is expected to be on the Fed minutes, also coming out on Wednesday evening.

Although markets are sluggish ahead of the upcoming holiday and long weekend in the US, stock indices are rising, while Treasury yields and dollar are falling. This is mainly due to the slightly less hawkish comments from Fed speakers this week, which is in contrast with the statement of St. Louis Fed President James Bullard last week that stressed that interest rates should reach at least 5-5.25%. San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly also pointed out the need to be mindful of delays in the transmission of policy changes, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that an additional tightening of 75-100p would be justified. So far, the rate forecast is stable. There is a 75% chance of a 50p increase, another 50p in February, and a peak to 5.06% by June. This is the benchmark that is currently guiding the markets. Today is packed with important statistics from the US. The first one will be the report on orders for durable goods, which will reflect the state of the industrial sector and consumer demand. Next is the consumer confidence indices from the University of Michigan, followed by the Fed minutes, where players will be looking for signals of a dovish reversal by the Fed. There are no signs that the dollar will resume rising. USD/CAD The slowing Canadian economy has not yet led to any noticeable deflationary pressure. The labor market is strong, with employment and wage growth being higher than that of the US. Retail sales also rose 1.5% m/m in October, which means that the Bank of Canada has more room to maneuver than the Fed and so far can implement a policy of containing inflation without looking at the rate of economic growth. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will be giving a speech today, where markets expect to see a similar position to that of the Fed. However, this is likely to rule out strong moves. Regarding the loonie, the latest CFTC report showed that cumulative short positions declined by 402 million to -973 million, which means that there is a slow shift in sentiment. But overall the loonie remains bearish, with the settlement price pointing downwards and below the long-term average. It has a chance to strengthen. The possible rise of USD/CAD will end in the resistance area of 1.3500/30, followed by an attempt to test the local low of 1.3224. Chances for a deeper decline have become higher, with the target being the technical support at 1.30. USD/JPY Core CPI rose 3.6% y/y in October, 0.6% higher than that of September's. The data has risen for the 14th consecutive month, and the rate of growth is already higher than in 2014, when the sales tax was introduced to break out of the deflationary squeeze. By all indications, the time for deciding whether to end the stimulus programs is approaching. Last November 10, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, which resulted in new signals. Kuroda expressed the BoJ's position that a unilateral sharp depreciation of the yen is not welcome. This means that raising the yield ceiling for 10-year bonds from the current 0.25% is rejected, as is the ending of QQE. The rising inflation and ruling out of the BOJ of rate cuts for the time being sends a clear signal to investors who are selling the yen. As a result, the net short positions continued to decline, falling by 548 million to -5.909 billion during the reporting period. The settlement price is also reversed downward. For now, there is less reason for USD/JPY to resume its record rise as trading is highly likely to be sideways. There is also little chance that it will move beyond the technical resistance at 143.12, unless there are clearer signals from the Bank of Japan.     Relevance up to 07:00 2022-11-28 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/327882

MARKET WRAP: STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES           On Tuesday, the S&P 500 regained the key level of 4,000 as it climbed 53 points (+1.36%) to 4003, its highest level in 2-1/2 months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 397 points (+1.18%) to 34,098, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 171 points (+1.48%) to 11,724.While investors awaited Wednesday's release of minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated 6.7 basis points to 3.760%.Semiconductors (+3.34%), energy (+3.18%), and consumer durables & apparel (+2.26%) sectors were market leaders.Best Buy (BBY) surged 12.78%, as the consumer electronics retailer raised its full-year comparable sales guidance.Agilent Technologies (A) jumped 8.07%, after the life science company posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings and raised its full-year earnings guidance.Dell Technologies (DELL) climbed 6.77% and Urban Outfitters (URBN) advanced 8.89%, as both companies' quarterly results exceeded expectations.On the other hand, Dollar Tree (DLTR) plunged 7.79% after the discount store chain said it now expects full-year earnings at the lower end of its target range.Zoom Video Communications (ZM) fell 3.87%, and Medtronic (MDT) dropped 5.30%, as both companies gave down-beat business outlook.Regarding U.S. economic data, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index posted at -9 for November (vs +5 expected).European stocks also closed higher. The DAX 40 rose 0.29%, the CAC 40 gained 0.35%, and the FTSE 100 was up 1.03%.Oil prices were boosted by Saudi Arabia saying that OPEC+ was sticking with output cuts. U.S. WTI crude futures gained $1.10 to $81.14 a barrel.Gold price added $2 to $1,740 an ounce.           MARKET WRAP: FOREX           The U.S. dollar index softened against other major currencies. The dollar index fell back to 107.16.EUR/USD rose 60 pips to 1.0302. The Eurozone's official consumer confidence index posted at -23.9 for November (vs -26.8 expected).USD/JPY dropped 96 pips to 141.18.GBP/USD gained 66 pips to 1.1889.AUD/USD increased 41 pips to 0.6646. This morning, the S&P Global Australia manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 51.5 in November.NZD/USD rebounded 53 pips to 0.6153. Later today, New Zealand's central bank is expected to raise its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 4.25%.USD/CHF slid 65 pips to 0.9520.USD/CAD declined 77 pips to 1.3371. Canada's retail sales declined 0.5% on month in September (as expected).Bitcoin rebounded 3% to $16,100.           MORNING TRADING           In Asian trading hours, NZD/USD traded higher to 0.6178. New Zealand's central bank increased its key interest rate by a record 75 basis points to 4.25%, and signaled further tightening going forward.EUR/USD traded higher to 1.0317, GBP/USD was stable at 1.1884, and AUD/USD was little changed at 0.6644.USD/JPY edged higher to 141.32.Gold price was flat at $1,740 an ounce.Bitcoin advanced a further 1% to $16,450.           EXPECTED TODAY           November S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers index will be announced for the Eurozone (45.7 expected), Germany (45.4 expected), France (46.8 expected), the U.K. (45.6 expected) and the U.S. (50.1 expected).In the U.S., durable goods orders are expected to grew 0.3% on month in October. The latest number of initial jobless claims is expected to rise to 228,000.The number of U.S. new home sales is expected to fall to an annualized rate of 580,000 units in October.U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are expected to decline 1.055 million barrels last week.           UK MARKET NEWS           United Utilities Group, a water and wastewater services company, reported first-half results: "Revenue was down 13 million pounds, at 919 million pounds, largely reflecting lower consumption more than offsetting the allowed regulatory revenue increase. (...) Operating profit at 259 million pounds was 74 million pounds lower than the first half of last year, (...) Reported basic earnings per share increased from (31.7) pence to 51.8 pence. (...) The Board has proposed an interim dividend of 15.17 pence per ordinary share in respect of the six months ended 30 September 2022. This is an increase of 4.6 per cent compared with the interim dividend relating to last year."Oil & Gas, basic resources and auto & parts shares fell most in London on Monday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, BP (+6.52% to 488p) crossed above its 50-day moving average.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Croda International (-1.07% to 6828p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.From a technical point of view, BAE Systems (+2.07% to 798.2p), BP (+6.52% to 488p) crossed above their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   04:30 S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov) 45.6 MEDIUM     04:30 S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash (Nov) 47.6 MEDIUM     08:00 Building Permits Final (Oct) 1.526M MEDIUM     08:30 Durable Goods Orders MoM (Oct) 0.3% HIGH     08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (19/Nov) 228k MEDIUM     08:30 Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Oct) 0.1% MEDIUM     09:45 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov) 50.1 MEDIUM     09:45 S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov) 49.3 MEDIUM     09:45 S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Nov) 49.5 MEDIUM     10:00 New Home Sales (Oct) 580k HIGH     10:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov) 54.7 MEDIUM     10:30 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (18/Nov) 383k MEDIUM     10:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (18/Nov) -1.055M MEDIUM     13:00 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (25/Nov)   HIGH     14:00 BoE Pill Speech   MEDIUM     14:00 FOMC Minutes   HIGH

The US economy has to remain strong in order for dollar to maintain its dominance in markets. Although the USD index gained over 12% in a year, thanks to high US interest rates and being a safe haven asset, they are not enough to maintain hegemony. Most of the effort should be allotted to making the US economy even more vital because benefits, such as dollar becoming the world's reserve currency, will follow naturally. This is actually why some analysts believe that the US seeks to suppress alternative currencies, including Bitcoin. They believe that the US wants to maintain dollar's dominance in order to control world trade. However, the US should consider using multiple currencies rather than keeping dollar as the unit of account and means of savings because there is a high chance that many alternative currencies will emerge, which could challenge dollar's traditional role as a medium of exchange, unit of account and means of saving. Of course, it is not certain that central bank digital currencies (CBDC) could monopolize the monetary system, but Blockchain technology will play a prominent role in the definition of money in the future. It could lead to greater decentralization and individual control over money. CBDC will have to compete on its own merits with other alternative currencies.   Relevance up to 10:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/327914

Weekly jobless claims in the USA rose to 240,000 last week, maintaining the upward trend since the end of September. The initial claims were the highest since August and exceeded expectations of 225k. The number of repeat claims was the highest since March at 1551k against 1503k a week earlier and expected 1517k. Both indicators are at low absolute levels by historical standards, but we note a trend. This indicator suggests that the US economy is shifting from a slowdown to a contraction. The last time such a reversal occurred was at the end of 2019. However, the lockdowns severely disrupted (accelerated) the natural course of events. Even earlier, these indicators reversed in 2000 and early 2007, months before the start of the market downturn and quarters before the official recession. A weakening labour market is just as important a signal for the Fed as slowing inflation. Both signs favour the US central bank reducing the rate hike. Even if a pause in the hikes is taken, the economy will digest the policy tightening already made for many months, nibbling at the nose in the coming months. More signs of a reversal in the labour market and a less drastic slowdown in Europe than previously feared work in favour of EURUSD rising and are generally against the dollar index and in favour of the stock market, as it suggests a softer tone from the Fed in the coming weeks and months than previously expected.

The Canadian dollar has edged lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3428, up 0.42%. Is Canada heading towards a recession? The Canadian consumer is in a sour mood. I don’t blame her, given the cost-of-living crisis and higher mortgage payments due to rising interest rates. Retail sales for September slipped 0.5% MoM as expected, but lower than the August gain of 0.4%. More worrying, retail sales fell by 1.0% QoQ, the first quarterly decline since Q2 2020. Read next: The RBNZ Statement Forecasted That The Economy Will Tip Into Recession In June 2023| FXMAG.COM The decline in consumer spending could well be a result of the Bank of Canada’s concerted effort to beat inflation with a steep rate-hike cycle, which has raised the cash rate to 3.75%. Despite this, inflation has been stickier than expected, currently at 6.9%. The drop in retail sales will put a damper on expectations of a 50-basis point hike at the December meeting, as the Bank of Canada will likely deliver a modest 25-bp hike. Inflation, the bank’s number one priority, remains very high at 6.9%, as the BoC’s aggressive rate-hike cycle is yet to show results. The benchmark rate is currently at 3.75%, and like the Federal Reserve, there’s more life remaining in the current rate-tightening cycle. The BoC is closely monitoring employment and retail sales data, as strong numbers will make it easier for the bank to continue hiking as policy makers look for that elusive peak in inflation. The bank will have little choice but to continue raising rates until it sees indications that inflation is peaking, and is expected to continue raising rates into next year. Higher and higher rates make it ever more difficult for the BoC to guide the economy to a soft landing without tipping into a recession. The Canadian dollar could show stronger movement later in the day, with two key events on the calendar. BoC Governor Macklem will testify before a parliamentary committee in Ottawa, while the FOMC releases the minutes of its meeting earlier this month, where it raised rates by 75 basis points. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD  is putting pressure on resistance at 1.3455. Next, there is resistance at 1.3523 There is support at 1.3341 and 1.3218 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. USD/CAD eyes Macklem, FOMC - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The market is firmly backing a 50bp hike from the Federal Reserve in December, but the 7% drop in the dollar against major currencies and the plunge in Treasury yields is the exact opposite of what the Fed wants to see as it battles inflation. With US data proving to be pretty resilient the Fed's rhetoric may need to toughen even more Investment holding up better than expected This morning's US data is a little mixed. The good news is that the durable goods report is solid and points to business capex holding up well in the fourth quarter. We always ignore the headline number, which rose 1% month-on-month versus the 0.4% consensus expectation as it gets buffeted around by Boeing aircraft orders, which were decent at 122 planes versus 96 in September. The Fed tends to look more at the non-defense capital goods orders ex aircraft as a cleaner measure of what is happening in the corporate sector. It rose 0.7% MoM versus expectations of 0.0%. Admittedly the September number was revised a little lower to -0.8% from -0.4% and, as the chart below shows, it is trending towards slower growth, but it is not suggesting companies are looking to retrench imminently. US core durable goods orders and business investment Source: Macrobond, ING Jobs story looking potentially troubling As for mortgage applications, they rose given the typical 30Y mortgage rate has followed Treasury yields lower to 6.67% as of last week versus 7.16% four weeks ago. The result is that mortgage applications for home purchases rose for the third consecutive week. The not-so-good story was the rise in initial jobless claims to 240k from 223k (consensus 225k) while continuing claims rose from 1503k to 1551k, suggesting that there is evidence of a cooling in the US labour market. This has certainly been the case in the tech sector, but more broadly the job openings data suggests there are still 1.9 job vacancies to every single unemployed American, i.e. demand is vastly outstripping supply of workers. The consensus for next Friday’s payrolls number is for a 200k jobs gain and we doubt expectations will shift much for that, but the rising lay-off story is something we will be closely following and could hint of early signs that the jobs numbers in early 2023 being softer. Fed may need to toughen its stance All in this week’s data probably doesn't mean much for the Federal Reserve policy meeting on December 14th. Instead, all eyes will be on next Friday's jobs report and the December 13th release of November CPI. The market is firmly behind a 50bp hike call given Fed speakers have indicated the likelihood of less aggressive step increases in interest rates after four consecutive 75bp hikes. However, we are a little nervous that the 7% fall in the dollar against the currencies of its main trading partners and the 45bp drop in the 10Y Treasury yield is leading to a significant loosening of financial conditions – the exact opposite of what the Fed wants to see as it battles inflation. Consequently, we wouldn't be surprised to see the Fed language become even more aggressive over the coming week, talking about a higher terminal interest rates – with some of the more hawkish members perhaps even opening the door to a potential fifth consecutive 75bp hike in December to ensure the market gets the message. Read this article on THINK TagsUS Investment Interest rates Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Americans celebrate Thanksgiving today, which may translate into less activity for investors overseas. However, before that happens, the market seems to be still alive with yesterday's "minutes" from the latest FOMC meeting. The minutes are a record of events and statements at the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which makes decisions on interest rates in the United States. They show that the vast majority of Fed officials felt that a slowdown in the rate of increase in the federal funds rate would probably be appropriate soon, as this would allow the Committee to better assess progress toward achieving its goals of maximum employment and price stability. Policymakers also noted that with inflation showing no signs of abating and the economy's supply-demand imbalance persisting, the ultimate level of the federal funds rate that would be needed to achieve the Committee's goals is somewhat higher than they had previously expected. The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3.75%-4% at its November 2022 meeting, marking the sixth consecutive rate hike and the fourth consecutive 75bp increase. As a result, the cost of dollar funding has risen to its highest level since 2008, Tradingecnomics calculated. Slower hikes - how are the dollar exchange rate and indexes reacting? The dollar index fell below 106 points on Thursday morning, slipping for the third day in a row toward the lowest levels since mid-August. For the week as a whole, the dollar seems to have lost to all major world currencies. Meanwhile, the British pound was able to record the biggest strengthening, gaining more than 1.7 percent, followed by the New Zealand dollar, which saw a historic interest rate hike yesterday. In third place on a weekly basis is the Swiss franc, with a strengthening of about 1.5 percent. Thus, it seems that the dollar's rally after the US interest rate hike may have slowed or come to an end, and now the market could at least move to a larger correction in price and time after the USD's one-year appreciation. Source: Conotoxia MT5, USDIndex, Daily The chances of a slower pace of interest rate hikes may have appealed to investors on Wall Street, where the green has taken hold. Particular attention may be paid to the Dow Jones index, which is now just a few percent short of reaching new highs. Yesterday, the Dow closed more than 100 points higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.6% and 1%, respectively. For the month as a whole, Caterpillar posted the biggest gains in the 30-company index, rising more than 23 percent, while the shares of aircraft manufacturer Boeing achieved a similar result. Meanwhile, only three companies in the entire index recorded a decline. They were UnitedHealth Group, The Walt Disney Co and Salesforce.com Inc. In their case, the declines were in the range of -2.2 to -5.2%, according to data from the BBN service. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Caterpillar, Weekly Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.    

Black Friday is almost here, so salers are getting ready for customers looking for real bargains. However, it's still not the end of hard-knock time for consumers as high interest rates and inflation worry buyers, investors and companies. We asked Saxo's Steen Jakobsen for a few words on the ongoing events.       To what extent could high rates and inflation impair Black Friday effect?   It's a two-way street, clearly consumers have shown they still have excess saving from the Pandemic, but also recently that inflation/high rates will in the future slow spending down, however for this Black Friday it seems retailers is more in need of "moving products" than securing price, which may mean good volume sales but less revenue.   Core Durable Goods Orders and Building Permits are released this week - how crucial are these prints ahead of the December Fed meeting?   All data is important as Fed has moved to "observing the impact of recent hikes", but overall the two data points which constitute 90% of the FED "data dependency" is employment and inflation measures.   Read next: Fed interest rate hikes predicted to slow down, Bob Iger takes over Disney for the second time, US mortgage payments soaring| FXMAG.COM

The dollar remained under pressure on Thursday after the release of the US PMI business activity index on Wenesday, which showed a slowdown in November. According to the S&P Global Market Intelligence report, the US manufacturing activity index fell to 47.6 in November from 50.4 in October, which was also worse than the forecast of 50. "Contributing to the decrease in the headline figure was a renewed fall in output and a sharper decline in new orders," S&P Global commented. They said "inflationary pressures should continue to cool in the months ahead, potentially markedly, but the economy meanwhile continues to head deeper into a likely recession." "According to preliminary PMI survey data, the rate of decline in manufacturing and demand has increased, corresponding to a 1 percent year-over-year contraction in the economy," S&P Global also noted. Business activity in the US services sector also continued to decline at an accelerating pace in early November, with the S&P Global Services PMI falling to 46.1 from 47.8 in October, worse than expected at 47.9. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, new orders fell at a significant pace in November. The second consecutive monthly decline in new orders was the sharpest since May 2020. Wednesday's negative investor sentiment was also exacerbated by the weekly report from the US Department of Labor: initial jobless claims came in at 240,000, worse than market expectations of 225,000 and 223,000 a week earlier. This block of negative macro statistics affected market participants more than the positive report of the US Census Bureau, also published on Wednesday, which showed orders for durable goods in the US increased by 1% in October, against a September growth of 0.3% and market expectations of a 0.4% increase. "Excluding transport, new orders increased by 0.5%. Excluding the defense industry, new orders rose 0.8%," the US Census Bureau reported. On Thursday, additional pressure on the dollar came from the release (at 19:00 GMT) of minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting, which showed that most of the US central bank's leadership supports the idea of slowing the pace of rate hikes in the near future. At the same time, inflation expectations in the US are declining. Market participants now expect the Fed rate hike in December by 50 basis points. According to the CME Group, that probability is currently 76%. Thus, the dollar is likely to remain under pressure on Thursday and in the coming days, especially given the Thanksgiving holiday period (today and tomorrow) in the US and the low activity of traders in that regard. Today and tomorrow's economic calendar is also not rich with important macro statistics. In the meantime, market participants who follow the euro today will pay attention to the publication (12:30 GMT) of the minutes from the November ECB meeting. This document contains an overview of the current policy of the ECB with planned changes in the financial and monetary areas. The publication of this document may cause a surge in volatility in trading in the euro and on the European stock market, and investors will carefully study the text of the protocols in order to catch additional signals regarding the prospects for the ECB's monetary policy. As noted in our recent review, if the publication of US inflation data disappoints investors, it will provoke a new wave of dollar sell-offs and a drop in DXY towards 109.00. At that time, DXY futures were trading near 110.46, maintaining a negative momentum and moving in the lower part of the descending channel that formed last month (on the DXY chart). A break of these levels could trigger a deeper drop in DXY, down to the key support levels of 107.40, 105.65, we assumed. Actually, this happened: the price broke through the lower border of the descending channel on the DXY chart at 109.00 and reached a local low of 105.15 in the next three days. But this does not mean the dollar's decline will be more prolonged. At the very least, the 105.00 level should keep the DXY index from falling deeper, economists say, especially given growing concerns about new outbreaks of coronavirus, the ongoing geopolitical crisis in Europe and the risks of a recession in the largest economies of the world. In this situation, economists assume that the dollar should again win as a popular defensive asset.     Relevance up to 12:00 2022-11-26 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/328041

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the Fed minutes, BoK rate hike, Chinese lockdowns, and oil as the G7 finalise the Russian price cap. http://www.subscribeonandroid.com/audioboom.com/channels/4947364.rss This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Market Insights Podcast (Episode 402) - MarketPulseMarketPulse

USD/CAD refreshes weekly low on Friday amid sustained selling around the US Dollar. The less hawkish FOMC minutes and a positive risk tone continue to weigh on the buck. An uptick in oil prices underpins the Loonie and contributes to the pair’s modest decline. The USD/CAD pair remains under some selling pressure for the fourth successive day on Friday and drops to a fresh weekly low heading into the European session. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.3300 round-figure mark and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar price dynamics. A dovish assessment of the FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday continues to weigh on the buck and is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. In fact, officials were largely satisfied that they could stop front-loading the rate increases and that slowing the rate-hiking cycle would soon be appropriate. This, in turn, cements expectations for a 50 bps lift-off at the December FOMC meeting and drags the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to its lowest level since early October. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets is seen as another factor weighing on the safe-haven greenback. Furthermore, some follow-through uptick in crude oil prices underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and exerts additional downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. That said, worries that the worsening COVID-19 situation in China will dent fuel demand keep a lid on any further gains for the black liquid. This, in turn, is holding back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the USD/CAD pair. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, either from the US or Canada, the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, traders will further take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities around the USD/CAD pair. The intraday momentum, however, is likely to remain limited amid relatively thin trading volumes on the last day of the week.  

Summary:  The US dollar has worked its way into a huge support zone ahead of the next batch of incoming data. The big test ahead across markets is perhaps when we move away from a one-dimensional obsession with US yields and begin to look at how markets start to price an incoming recession. That could complicate the turnaround process from a USD bull to a USD bear market. FX Trading focus: USD eyes huge support ahead of next important incoming data next week. Time for a shift in focus for the greenback? The FOMC minutes Wednesday confirmed the market’s well-established expectation that the Fed is set to downshift to a 50-bp hike in December, with a bit more tightening thereafter and a hold for most of next year. The action in the curve has been farther out, where the market is getting more aggressive in expressing the view that the Fed will be cutting rates quite aggressively in 2024, with the December 24 EuroDollar STIR future pricing some 170 basis points of easing from the mid-2023 peak – that is up from around 100 basis points just a month ago. It is a strong indication that the market is pricing for an oncoming recession, unless inflationary pressures can somehow normalize in a very soft landing scenario. For now, the markets are celebrating US yields falling (from 3-years and further out, at least), but at some point will have to consider what a recession normally entails in terms of impacts on corporate profits, the credit cycle, asset prices etc. – in other words, a more widespread deleveraging. At this point in the cycle, we have mostly only neutralized many of the excesses inspired by the pandemic, not priced a significant recession. As well, we are in a novel environment relative to every cycle since at least 1982. Especially the 2007-09 global financial crisis is not seen as a good model for what comes next and partially for good reason: the Fed and other central banks have thoroughly learned the lesson that raging contagion in the financial system is unacceptable, and they are so used to extreme intervention to prevent disorder, with further lessons learned in the pandemic response. So markets feel comfortable in taking the financial chaos option off the table. Nonetheless, once we do cross into a recession in the US as well as Europe and elsewhere, the central banks, and more importantly governments in this age of rising fiscal dominance, will have to be far more wary of triggering an inflationary rebound when considering new easing/stimulus. In that light, there are perhaps three paths from here. More of the same (another month max): we continue to see softer, but relatively benign data that allows the market to continue to celebrate an easing of Fed tightening and the anticipation that no new inflationary shock awaits. Max USD bearish scenario. Recession fears rising with yields falling: This is the most interesting test of the USD and its correlations across assets. Would the greenback continue lower as yields fall on the anticipation that the Fed is set to eventually ease, or would weak risk appetite and increasingly poor liquidity and the fear that the Fed will prove too slow to pivot toward easing cause more significant deleveraging across markets that keeps the USD well supported? I think the US dollar’s safe haven status will still be around if we do see a new cycle of widespread risk aversion. Inconveniently sticky inflation with or without rising recession fears: Evidence continues to point to an oncoming recession, but that path could take considerable time to materialize and, in the meantime, any sign that the inflation is failing to maintain a steady downward path won’t be welcome. This could be aggravated by a situation in which China eases up on its restrictive Covid policies and is stimulating and driving commodity prices higher just as Europe and the US tilt into a recession? This scenario would be more likely to see USD sensitive to risk sentiment, as yields would have a hard time falling further in this scenario. Chart: EURUSDEURUSD has been interacting with its 200-day moving average again while not quite able to mount an attack on the recent pivot highs near 1.0480. Given our scenarios above, the two+ week into the December 14 FOMC meeting offer an interesting test of the current market backdrop – is data particularly strong and spoils the decelerating inflation narrative, or is it far weaker than expected, raising recession fears? And if the data is indifferent to stronger than expected, how unhappy is the Fed that financial conditions are at their easiest since May, before the Fed even began hiking rates in 75-bp increments? On a somewhat different note, long range weather forecasts are beginning to see very cold weather across Europe starting in about 10 days. Energy markets in Europe are not fretting this development, but if they do, it will remind euro and sterling traders that external deficits remain a risk for the single currency and sterling. Technically speaking, the first sign of weakness would be a run below the 1.0223 pivot low from the start of this week, but the bigger break-down area looks like 1.0100. Source: Saxo Group Yesterday, the Riksbank hiked the policy rate 75 basis points as a strong majority expected, taking the rate to 2.50%. Interestingly, to buy itself some optionality, the bank issued a baseline forecast for its policy rate in which inflation dropped to sub-2% by early-mid 2024, which would mean the policy rate peaks below 3%, while an “alternative scenario” of inflation failing to fall much below 4% would mean that policy rate would have to rise north of 4.50%. It was an interesting sign of central bank insecurity on the path from here, although Swedish rates hardly moving in the wake of this meeting and the alternative scenario discussion. SEK got a solid boost by the end of the day yesterday and it is now well embedded back in the range since September after the recent upside threat. It is hard to see EURSEK threatening 11.00+ again unless we are about to tilt into a severe bout of risk aversion. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.CNH curiously weak – doesn’t fit with where the also weak USD is trading elsewhere. Sterling strength is getting a bit out of hand here, but could yet continue if the complacent backdrop continues. Still have to believe that nearly all of the short speculation in sterling has been squeezed out. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Note USDCNH close to flipping positive – needs a solid surge above 7.200 for a stronger indication. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-usd-running-out-of-room-to-fall-on-current-drivers-25112022

Sunday marked the start of the World Cup in Qatar. It seems that it could not have taken place without controversy over the preparations for the event. After yesterday's Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, today we may see increased shopping traffic in celebration of Black Friday. A weakening dollar and falling bond yields may have driven the broad market this week.  Macroeconomic data On Wednesday, we learnt about the PMI reading on managerial sentiment in German industry. The reading of 46.7 points surpassed the expected 45 points and came as a positive surprise over the previous reading of 45.1 points. We could also see values for the same indicator from the UK, with a reading of 46.2 points (45.7 had been expected), against the previous reading of 46.2. From this we could see a warming of the market climate, which appears to have caused a 1% rise on the main German DAX index (DE40) since the start of the week.  Source: Conotoxia MT5, DE40, Weekly On the same day, we learned about the number of building permits issued in the United States. Here, the data turned out to be more modest than expected, amounting to 1.512 million (1.526 million was expected). There was also news from the US economy on crude oil inventories, which fell by 3.69 million barrels (a drop of 1 million barrels was expected).  On Thursday, Americans celebrated the Thanksgiving holiday. In Europe, on the other hand, data from the Ifo index measuring expectations for the next six months among German entrepreneurs may have come as a positive surprise. The index came in at 86.3 points, while 85 points were expected, which, like the PMI index, may have comforted markets in their expectations for the future. The stock market Analysts may have been positively surprised by Q3 earnings this week. Among others, we saw better-than-expected earnings per share from technology, software and laboratory equipment maker Agilent Technologies (Agilient), whose EPS came in at 1.53 (expected 1.38). Zoom Video (Zoom), a popular company during the pandemic, also surprised positively, with EPS of 1.07 (expected 0.83).  On Tuesday, US semiconductor company Analog Devices (AnalogDev) showed EPS of 2.73 (2.58 expected), and the maker of software for industries including architecture, engineering and construction showed earnings per share in line with EPS guidance of 1.7.  Of the 11 sectors of the US economy, consumer goods sales grew strongest. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) index has gained more than 3% since the start of the week, which may have been influenced by Friday's Black Friday. Source: Conotoxia MT5, XLP, Weekly Currency and cryptocurrency market For another week in a row, we could see a weakening of the US dollar. The valuation of the EUR/USD pair has risen by 0.7% since the beginning of the week and currently stands at 1.04. The weakening of this largest reserve currency was also evident on the GBP/USD pair, which rose by 2% to around 1.21. The other currencies do not seem to show increased volatility. Source: Conotoxia MT5, EURUSD, Weekly There could still be a gloomy mood in the cryptocurrency market. Not even the reports that the largest exchange Binance has set up and contributed USD 1 billion to a fund to support crypto projects are helping. The price of bitcoin is hovering around US$16500 and ethereum around US$1190. Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTCUSD, Daily What could we expect next week? Next week's key macroeconomic data will start with Tuesday's German CPI inflation reading. On the same day, we will learn the previously discussed Chinese manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, the Eurozone CPI inflation readings appear to be particularly important. On this day, we will also learn the quarterly change in GDP for the United States. On Thursday, we will learn the PMI values for Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. At the end of the week, we will find out the unemployment rate in the USA. Tuesday will see Q3 financial results from business software developer Intuit (Intuit). Wednesday will bring a report from cloud software company Salesforce (Salesforce). We will end the week with a report from semiconductor company Marvell (MarvelTech). Grzegorz Dróżdż, Junior Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com

The U.S. dollar index paused its "downward trek" on Thursday after traders played back the release of what they considered the dovish minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting. However, it's impossible to be objective about the dollar's behavior right now. Thanksgiving Day, which was celebrated in the USA, distorted the whole picture. U.S. trading floors were closed on Thursday and Wednesday was a short work day, much like Friday. On top of that, there was the "Friday factor" and low liquidity. But even in such conditions, the EUR/USD bulls still failed to settle within the 4th figure. Traders finished the trading week at 1.0398. Actually, at the limit of the fourth price level, however, this is exactly the case when "a little bit doesn't count". The bulls' failure to settle above the 1.0400 mark suggests that the price's growth was passive, after the release of the Fed's minutes. Low liquidity helped the bulls reach the limit of the 4th figure, however, it needed more growth factors in order to climb further. Whereas the current fundamental picture is rather in favor of the greenback. In my opinion, the vector of the EUR/USD movement will be set next week by the level of interest in risk and the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators. A decline in anti-risk sentiment can significantly weigh on the greenback - and vice versa, an increase in panic will allow the dollar bulls to open a second wind. China may play a key role here as we continue to receive alarming news. The coronavirus factor has emerged once again: China reported its third straight daily record of new COVID-19 infections. For example, 39,791 new cases of coronavirus have been identified on November 26. Around 32,943 cases were reported on Thursday. And that's a new all-time high since the pandemic began. In other words, there is serious cause for concern. China is the second largest economy in the world, but has a "zero tolerance" policy for COVID. Despite significant negative consequences (including for the global economy), Beijing is adamant on this issue. Only two years after the start of the pandemic, the PRC authorities made minor concessions - the mandatory quarantine for people in contact with COVID patients (as well as for foreign travelers) was reduced from 7 to 5 days. However, even this "light" easing of coronavirus restrictions was received with enthusiasm by many market participants. Interest in risk increased noticeably and the dollar came under pressure. By the way, during this period, in early November, the pair showed a large-scale corrective growth, approaching the limits of the 5th figure. Now, apparently, China is back to tightening the screws. For example, the city of Guangzhou (the largest port city with a population of 17 million) has been undergoing a partial lockdown, affecting about 6 million people. In the largest district of Beijing - Chaoyang - most companies have closed. In addition, authorities also shut down cultural and entertainment venues in Shanghai. Local authorities also urged people to work from home if possible. The "zero tolerance" policy is costly not only to the Chinese economy, but also hits the world economy. Supply chains are collapsing, shortages of some goods are growing, and the inflation flywheel is starting to unwind again. Next week, the situation in China could worsen. In particular, Shanghai authorities have now imposed compulsory testing for all those entering from other regions, as well as a three-day quarantine in isolation. If a strict lockdown is imposed in this metropolis in the coming days (as it was this spring), anti-risk sentiment in the markets will increase significantly. Shanghai, with a population of 25 million, is considered the financial capital of China, and it will not take long for such a move to have an impact. By the way, the spring lockdown in China contributed to the development of the downward trend of EUR/USD - in a few weeks the pair decreased by almost 500 points. Thus, alarming news from China may strengthen the position of dollar bulls next week. The minutes of the Fed, which was interpreted against the U.S. currency, has already exhausted itself. In general, the market played back the possible slowdown in the rate hike even before the release of the minutes of the November meeting. Therefore, we can assume that this topic will fade in the near future. The next focus is another question - how high the Fed's final rate can climb. After all, the fact that the Fed will slow down the rate hike does not indicate that the upper limit of the current cycle will be lowered. If members of the U.S. central bank sound hawkish signals in this context (essentially repeating Powell's rhetoric), the dollar will receive substantial support throughout the market. A new outbreak of Covid in China will only spur traders' interest in the safe-haven greenback. In this case, the pair could fall to the support level of 1.0210 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the four-hour timeframe) in the medium term.     search   g_translate     Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/328225

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rose through the 106.15 high during the early Asian session on Monday before hitting resistance. The index has eased off a bit and is seen to be trading around 106.00 at this point in writing. The bears might be inclined to be back in control and drag prices lower towards 104.30 which is the next-in-line support. The US dollar index might be one more low away before turning bullish again above the 114.67 mark. The larger-degree corrective drop, which began from 114.67 earlier, either looks complete at 104.90 or it could print another low around 104.30 as highlighted here on the 4H chart. Either way, it is just a matter of time before the bulls are back in control. The US dollar index is facing resistance at 107.65, followed by 110.65 and higher; while support is seen around 114.30 levels. The bears might be looking to break below 104.30 and complete the corrective pattern before giving in to the bulls. On the flip side, a break above 107.65 would confirm and accelerate the climb towards 110.65 at least, in the near term. Trading idea: Potential drop to 104.30 against 107.65, then higher. Good luck! Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302694

The loonie's fate is in the hands of the Canadian central bank. There are increasing speculations that the Bank of Canada will slow the pace of its rate hike again at the next meeting, raising it only by 25 points. Such rumors of a dovish nature are not absolute, but very persistent. In particular, last week currency strategists of RBC Capital Markets voiced a corresponding forecast. Moreover, in their opinion, the central bank as a whole is already close to the end of the cycle of interest rate hikes. Judging by the pair's dynamics, the loonie is not in a hurry to draw conclusions, although such conversations have stopped the downtrend. Thus, in the first half of November, the bears tried to stay under the support level of 1.3260 (at that time it corresponded to the bottom lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 and H4 time frames) several times. But after the bears impulsively broke through this limit, they got stuck near the level of 1.3230. The downward momentum faded, the price returned to its previous positions. After several unsuccessful attempts, the USD/CAD bears intercepted the initiative, but the controversial FOMC minutes did not allow them to launch a bullish counter-offensive. The pair finished the previous trading week at 1.3376. This week the pair's traders will focus not only on Friday's reports (the U.S. and Canada will release key labor market data on December 2). The main "test" for the loonie will be the Canadian economic growth data which will be released on Tuesday (November 29). According to preliminary projections, Canada's GDP will only grow by 1.5%. Even if the figure comes out at the forecasted level, we could talk about a significant slowdown in the growth rate of the economy (3.1% growth in the first quarter, and 3.3% in the second quarter). If the release is in the red zone, the Canadian dollar will be under considerable pressure. Because in this case the dovish rumors about further actions of the Bank of Canada will only strengthen. The official comments of the central bank's representatives so far have been contradictory. For example, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has recently sounded very vague about how Canadians should be prepared for further rate hikes "in addition to the six that have already occurred this year". He lamented the tight labor market ("demand exceeds supply") and suggested that economic growth will be "minimal" over the next few quarters, until about the middle of next year. But he did not talk about the expected pace of rate hikes or the final point in the current cycle. At the same time as the senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada Carolyn Rogers reported that the end of the cycle of tightening of monetary policy is "already close". She added, however, that "in the near future" there is still a need to raise interest rates to reduce inflation. I would like to point out that the Bank of Canada disappointed the USD/CAD bears at its last meeting in October: contrary to expectations of most experts, it did not raise the interest rate by 75 points, limiting itself to a 50-point hike. According to Macklem, the decision to slow the pace of policy tightening was made "amid growing fears of a deepening global economic downturn". He added that the central bank is trying to balance the risks of "under- and over-tightening". Macklem said in passing that the central bank was "nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle". And although he immediately clarified that the process of raising the rate has not yet been completed, the message itself was perceived by the market accordingly. Thus, this week's key releases (especially Canadian GDP growth) will decide the fate of the USD/CAD pair in the medium term, as the Bank of Canada will be guided by them on December 7. The slowdown in economic growth, the decline in the labor market amid the first signs of easing inflationary pressures in recent months will create an appropriate springboard for a further slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening by the central bank. These circumstances will also support the view that the Bank of Canada may be nearing the end of its current interest rate hike cycle. A 25-point rate hike at the December meeting would then be the "first swallow" announcing the unwinding of the hawkish course. The U.S. Federal Reserve, for its part, remains hawkish despite a planned slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. Moreover, some Fed officials, most notably Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, allow the possibility that the upper limit of the current cycle could exceed the 5% level. In particular, not so long ago James Bullard spoke about an indicative target of 5.25%. At the same time, many members of the Committee are actively voicing the message that inflation is still high (despite the first signs of slowing growth), and therefore the Fed has "a lot of work to do". All this suggests that the fundamental picture on the pair is gradually progressing in favor of the bullish scenario. If the major macroeconomic releases disappoint the loonie, the bulls may retest the nearest resistance level of 1.3450 (middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). Last week, the USD/CAD bulls already tried to take this price barrier by storm, but in vain. The next (main) resistance level is located at 1.3700 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe). However, it is too early to talk about reaching this target.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 22:00 2022-11-28 UTC+00 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/328240

On the 4-hour chart of the US Dollar Index, deviations appear between its price movements and the CCI indicator so that in the near future the USD Dollar Index has the potential to appreciate an upward rally up to the 107.07 level as its main target and if the momentum and volatility are supportive, then it is possible that the 107.87 level will become the next target to be tested but because currently #USDX is stuck at the level of the Bearish Fair Value Gap area (pink box) there is a potential for #USDX to get a correction to the level 106.10 which is important as long as the correction does not exceed the level 105.75 then the scenario of an upward rally that has been described above is still valid.   Relevance up to 02:00 2022-11-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/114775

USD/CAD is declining towards 1.3400 amid a sheer recovery in oil prices. The risk-off impulse has faded after china announces economic stimulus to offset the Covid-inspired volatility. Apart from Fed Powell’s speech, the US/Canada GDP data will be keenly watched. The USD/CAD pair is looking for an immediate cushion after a massive sell-off post failing to sustain above the critical hurdle of 1.3500. The loonie asset is hovering around 1.3433 and is expected to extend its losses towards the round-level support of 1.3400 amid a vertical rally in oil prices. Also, the recovery in the risk-appetite theme is expected to strengthen the Canadian Dollar further. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has refreshed its day’s low at 106.14 amid a decline in safe-haven’s appeal. Contrary to that, 10-year US Treasury yields have recovered to near 3.71% as investors have turned anxious ahead of the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell. On the United States front, investors are awaiting the release of the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will release on Wednesday. The growth rate is expected to remain stable at 2.6%. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers brace for a slowdown in the growth rate as it will lead to a deceleration in inflation. Meanwhile, loonie investors are also awaiting GDP figures, which are due on Tuesday. The annualized GDP is expected to improve to 3.5% vs. the prior release of 3.3%. While, on a quarterly basis, the economic data could decline to 0.4% against the former release of 0.8%. On the oil front, oil prices have roared firmly on expectations of consideration of supply cuts by the OPEC cartel to offset the recent weakness. Meanwhile, public unrest in China has been calmed for a while as Chinese marshals have barricaded people at home under coercion. However, the situation has not been solved entirely. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading oil exporter to the United States, therefore, a meaningful recovery in oil prices supports the Canadian Dollar.    

This morning, the US dollar seems to be losing ground again in anticipation of upcoming macroeconomic data later in the week. We are specifically talking about data from the US labor market and the popular NFP. Improvement in the markets. Is the dollar losing again? This morning, the US dollar seems to be losing ground again in anticipation of upcoming macroeconomic data later in the week. We are specifically talking about data from the US labor market and the popular NFP. The U.S. Dollar Index on Tuesday seems to have fallen below 106.5 points, despite earlier statements by U.S. Federal Reserve officials. James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed said the central bank still has "a lot of work to do to become restrictive," reiterating that "the interest rate needs to rise to at least 5% to bring inflation down." New York Fed President John Williams also said that "rates must continue to rise and remain high until next year, while being open to a rate cut in 2024." However, the Fed is widely expected to slow the pace of tightening to 50 basis points in December after four 75 basis point hikes in a row. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard warned that lower supply elasticity due to the effects of Covid-19 and the war could lead to a period of higher volatility in inflation data. This phenomenon could be the largest in several decades. Brainard added that "the experience with the pandemic and the war highlights the challenges for monetary policy in responding to a prolonged series of adverse supply shocks," BBN reported. Source: Conotoxia MT5, USDIndex, H1 China's infections decline One short-term factor that appears probably to influence the behavior of financial markets is the situation in China. After a record number of infections, investors' eyes may be on both the protests and the scale of the outbreak. According to the latest information, the number of newly registered cases fell for the first time in more than a week, the Health Commission (NHC) reported. The figure was said to have dropped from more than 40,000 infections to 38645 newly registered infections. The fewer infections there are, the fewer restrictions may not be enforced, as there would be no need for them, which could help both Chinese citizens and the economy. Additionally, Chinese authorities have announced a press conference on the Zero-Covid policy, which may already have markets hoping for a loosening of restrictions. Stock market, commodities and cryptocurrencies rebound U.S. index futures seem to be pointing to the possibility of a positive opening to the session on Wall Street. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are up more than 0.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 is up 0.6% this morning. Meanwhile, in Shanghai, the local stock index rose more than 2% to 3144 points. On the commodities market, we could see oil prices rise by more than 1.6% to $78 per barrel. Gold, on the other hand, rose 0.7% to $1,753, and silver rose 1.45% to $21.20 per ounce. The cryptocurrency market is also trying to bounce back. The price of bitcoin has risen to $16456, and Ether is back above $1200.   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The dollar index started on Monday with a pullback and made an impressive reversal, adding 1.3% to the intraday lows. Comments from Fed officials again dashed hopes of an interest rate cut soon. The dollar gained significant support, one step away from an important technical frontier, increasing the risks that the bulls on the US currency will fight to maintain the trend that has prevailed since the middle of last year. Active buying in the USD index started on Monday, just after it reached the area of the 200-day MA at 105.26. Earlier this year, we saw more than one bull and bear fight near 105. Yesterday's sharp rally in the index suggests that the struggle in this area will be harsh this time too. The two-month drop of the dollar from the peak might be just an overbought correction because, till now, the DXY has not crossed over the 200-day MA, and it is still above the 61.8% Fibonacci line. In the EURUSD, the local picture is even more on the side of the USD buyers as they managed to take the pair back under their 200-day MA after touching the 5-month highs and closed the day lower. This is a strong signal from the bears, which could be a new turning point and prolong the dollar rally for months. Nevertheless, there is no denying that the coming days and weeks will be full of struggles for the long-term trend. For now, there are more signals that the dollar’s peak is behind us. The US economic cycle is a couple of quarters ahead of developments in Europe and Japan, implying that the Fed was the first to start changing policy and finish this normalisation. Fed officials are in the process of switching to a new phase where they are not fighting rising inflation but the risks of a hiccup. The FOMC should expect fewer rate hikes in the next 2-4 meetings and then take a long pause. In contrast, the ECB continues to talk about the need for further steep hikes and finalises the parameters for how the balance sheet will be reduced. For investors and traders, this means that in the coming months, we will see a convergence of monetary policy parameters between the Fed and other major central banks, which promises to swing demand away from the dollar. One of the macro impacts of de-globalisation is higher inflation. And this process will affect Europe to a greater extent, as they will have to find new ways of obtaining energy and markets. This political outlook means that in the long term, central banks in the Old World will have to do more work to contain inflation, which will work against the dollar.

There's no doubt this week is simply 'action-packed'. On Monday news about situation in China discouraged risk-assets investments and let crude oil go significantly down. On the other of side of the globe, dollar index seems to weaken for another week in a row what takes us to discussion about incoming Fed decision. Trying to find answers, we asked Luke Suddards (Finimize) to share his thoughts on the recent events.   Brent crude oil nears $80 at the actual start of heating season, is China's covid situation affecting it to that extent or there's another 'hidden' factor and what can we expect till the end of the year?   I think given China is the largest importer of crude in the world their lockdowns are definitely weighing on the commodity, however, the more important factors in my opinion are the increasingly ominous global economic outlook and a less interventionist OPEC+. Investors also seem to have become less sensitive to the Ukraine War, which was a significant driver of crude in the first half of 2022 as a large geopolitical risk premium was priced in. I'd say the balance of risks are to the downside for oil going forward. Hedge Funds have significantly raised their short bets on the crude ETF XLE, which one would infer as a bearish price signal for crude.    Read next: Europe’s governments are concerned about energy supplies over the winter and the future of Russian gas imports, Musk’s war with APPL| FXMAG.COM   Could NFP save the dollar from a quite long downtrend? Dollar index has been losing since ca. 7 weeks, is correction coming to USD?   Yes, it could definitely put a pep in the step of the dollar. We know the dollar has been driven by a hawkish Fed and they place a lot of importance on the jobs and inflation data. If the NFP comes in well above consensus then the Fed pivot narrative would take a hit and a higher terminal rate would likely be priced in, which would be dollar positive. The dollar index is sitting on a key support threshold in the form of the 200-day SMA. If it holds this it would be a positive signal for the greenback's prospects. However, I do think we see softer NFP reports going forward as the tech layoffs and leading indicators for job vacancies roll over.      This week's prints stand for the last data pack ahead of December Fed decision, supposing they came as a surprise would Fed go for a 75bp rate?   The market currently is pricing a 71% chance of a 50bps hike from the Fed at their December meeting. If we see upside surprises in jobs and inflation data, then yes we would likely see a higher probability for a 75bps hike priced in by markets. However, the Fed strategy as noted in the minutes and communicated by various FOMC members seems to be a slower pace of hikes such as 50bps, but higher end rates as well as holding them at that level for longer instead of flipping to cuts immediately. So it wouldn't necessarily be a guarantee that strong data points would shift the Fed to a 75bps hike.   

Markets plunged on Monday as unrest in China, which was due to frustration at lockdowns, led to sell-offs. Equity markets closed lower, while crude oil prices dropped significantly. But the downturn is unlikely to last long because even though China's demand for commodities, goods and production capacity is important, a lot depends on the statements of world central banks. For example, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said interest rates will continue to rise as inflation remains high. Lael Brainard, Thomas Barkin and John Williams said roughly the same thing, although they did not claim that aggressive rate hikes should continue. The upcoming speech of Jerome Powell is also expected to be hawkish, which can put pressure on stock markets and support dollar. There are some that believe that stocks will rally because investors have long since played down the Fed's extreme monetary policy stance. Markets are also reacting with great fervor to positive news, such as the short-term increase after the US published its latest inflation data. If Powell's rhetoric also does not turn out to be hawkish, there is a good chance that risk appetite will surge ahead of the Fed's December meeting. Forecasts for today: USD/CAD The pair is showing a local reversal on the back of a strong rebound in crude oil prices after its fall yesterday. A drop below 1.3415 will push quotes to 1.3320. AUD/USD The pair is rising amid improving market sentiment. A break above 0.6720 could bring the quotes to 0.6800. Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/328414

Of course, absolute price levels and the state of the economy give little reason to rejoice, but the situation has stopped deteriorating - this is already significant progress. Under such circumstances, the ECB is unlikely to pause   The annual inflation rate likely passed its peak last month, and November's data, following Germany, will show a slowdown. It will not be surprising if inflation proves to be "less sticky" and not supported by weakening demand. Leading inflation indicators such as producer and import prices have been slowing for months. Logistical problems are slowly but surely being solved, causing a reduction in the time and cost of shipping international goods. And all this on top of falling energy prices. Of course, absolute price levels and the state of the economy give little reason to rejoice, but the situation has stopped deteriorating - this is already significant progress. Under such circumstances, the ECB is unlikely to pause, preferring to raise the rate further in the coming quarters and sell assets off the balance sheet. This will be a problem for the economy but will anchor inflation expectations, which is the only correct and historically proven long-term strategy for central banks. The Fed has signalled in the last commentary that it is prepared to switch from a run to a step to take a better look at the effects of the hikes that have already been made   It is unlikely that the Fed would take this step. Monetary policy operates with a lag of about half a year. The Fed has signalled in the last commentary that it is prepared to switch from a run to a step to take a better look at the effects of the hikes that have already been made. Most likely, we will see a 50-point hike in December, and whether the next one will be a 50 or 25-point increase on February 1st will be determined by inflation data coming out in mid-December and January. In addition, we note the steady upward trend in weekly jobless claims, a frequent precursor to a reversal in monthly employment data. We would not be surprised if the coming reports are shocked by job cuts. People may rush to buy, assuming prices will continue to rise, so there is no point in postponing a purchase   Despite the record, Black Friday sales growth has lagged behind inflation. Overall, consumers are struggling to maintain their standard of living, faced with rising borrowing costs and increased fuel and food costs. The fact that people are spending despite gloomy forecasts from economists and corporate CEOs, the market downturn (an essential factor for the US) and the halt of consumer support programs of the covid-restriction era is appealing. People may rush to buy, assuming prices will continue to rise, so there is no point in postponing a purchase.

The Canadian dollar has steadied on Tuesday, after starting the week with sharp losses. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3444, down 0.37%. Canada’s GDP expected to slow Canada will release third-quarter GDP later today, with a consensus of a 1.5% gain. This follows a strong Q2 gain of 3.3%.  The economy has been losing steam as interest rates continue to rise, and there are forecasts for negative growth as early as Q1 of 2023. Last week’s retail sales report did not impress. Retail sales for September came in at -0.5% MoM as expected, but lower than the August gain of 0.4%. More worrying, retail sales fell by 1.0% QoQ, the first quarterly decline since Q2 2020. The Canadian dollar should be busy on Friday, as both Canada and the US release the November employment report. Read next: FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich: It is unlikely that the Fed would take this step. Monetary policy operates with a lag of about half a year | FXMAG.COM The Fed doesn’t hold a policy meeting until December 14th but Fed members continued to hit the airwaves on Monday. James Bullard said on Monday the markets could be underestimating the likelihood of higher rates and that the Fed funds rate will have to reach the bottom end of the 5%-7% range in order to curb inflation, which has been more persistent than anticipated. John Williams added that the Fed needed to do more work to tame inflation, which is “far too high”. Lael Brainard, a dove, expressed concern about inflation expectations rising above the Fed’s 2% target. The Fedspeak blitz could continue right up the meeting, as the Fed needs the markets to buy into its message that inflation has not peaked and the Fed remains hawkish and plans to keep raising rates. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is facing resistance at 1.3478 and 1.3576 There is support at 1.3398 and 1.3300 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canadian dollar steadies ahead of GDP - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Our editors asked Swissquote's Ipek Ozkardeskaya about her thoughts about this week's data, which seems to be crucial ahead of decisions of Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. What's more, we're astonished by Black Friday results which are said to near $10bn, so we asked Ipek for a comment on this case as well.   The ECB, nor any other central bank, can't choose to escape recession over fighting inflation   The ECB, nor any other central bank, can't choose to escape recession over fighting inflation, because inflation is toxic for an economy in the long run, and should be dealt with rapidly to avoid it from becoming structural. Therefore, if ECB policymakers should make a decision between fighting inflation and avoiding recession, they will likely choose fighting inflation. They could however adjust the speed and the force of their action according to the economic conditions. in this respect, recession could slow down the pace of tightening but won't stop it.   Read next: Investors also seem to have become less sensitive to the Ukraine War, which was a significant driver of crude in the first half of 2022 says Finimize's Luke Suddards | FXMAG.COM    This week's prints stand for the last data pack ahead of December Fed decision, supposing they came as a surprise would Fed go for a 75bp rate?   Probably not. The Fed has been clear enough in its communication that they are not done fighting inflation. However, because there is a delay between the monetary policy action and the economy's reaction, the Fed officials prefer taking smaller steps while keeping the topside open for higher rates. Therefore, I wouldn't expect the Fed to surprise with another 75bp hike in December. Unfavourable economic data - stronger-than-expected jobs, high-than-expected inflation - would rather be felt for the Fed's end-rate expectations. For now, it is around 5-5.25%.       When it comes to the Black Friday sales, there are two positive forces that explain the record figures   Despite the record Black Friday sales, retailers broadly reported a rise in inventories and slowing discretionary spending ahead of the peak US shopping season. When it comes to the Black Friday sales, there are two positive forces that explain the record figures. 1. Higher inflation pumps up the final numbers. 2. It is possible that people chose to take advantage of promotions as their purchasing power weakened by inflation. This may explain why we had record Black Friday sales this year.    But even if we factor in inflation there is still be growth in this year's holiday consumption.   This is not necessarily great news for the Fed, which targets a consumer-led recession to slow down inflation. Therefore, the US record pre-holiday sales, combined with the strong monthly retail sales data hint that the US consumer demand has not weakened enough to tame inflation. This means that the Fed would only feel more comfortable pushing its rates higher and get the slow down it is looking for.

The current wave markup is quite clear, and the news background is complex. The US dollar is rising right now. However, the market is unwilling to increase demand for it in any way, so even if one downward correction wave is constructed, there are still significant issues. Recalling the numerous FOMC members who have spoken on the state of the economy in recent weeks, their rhetoric has become even more strident. Although the market is anticipating a slowdown in the PEPP's rate of tightening, Fed officials' rhetoric indicates that it is still getting tighter, so this is a good time for the US dollar to resume its upward trend. But as I've already mentioned, the market is unimpressed with the dollar and is unwilling to purchase it for some reason. What exactly is causing the market's fear? The rate will increase in the US for at least a few more meetings. After that, it will stay high for at least 1.5 years. How many more shocks to the world economy can there be in the next 1.5 years? How many more geopolitical conflicts and escalations will we witness during this period? And the US dollar continues to be a reserve currency, with rising demand in challenging times. Therefore, I wouldn't conclude that the market has lost faith in the dollar and is now disillusioned with it. Market players are watching for a significant event to restart its increasing demand. What incidents can be called iconic? First, Fed President Jerome Powell will deliver today's speech. Although Mary Daly's and James Bullard's opinions are undoubtedly noteworthy and carry significant weight, Powell's rhetoric is still far more significant. The market may not take Daly or Bullard at their word, but it is much more likely to listen to what the FOMC chairman says. Additionally, Powell's rhetoric no longer raises any concerns. Powell is also expected to discuss the necessity of maintaining the rate above 5% for a considerable time. What additional "hawkish" elements does the market require? A new nonfarm payroll report for the US will be made public on Friday. Although this indicator's value has been declining in recent years, it is still at levels that cannot be considered weak. Please remind me that the Federal Reserve and Congress think the labor market is still in excellent shape and that it is inappropriate to discuss a recession in the American economy. The market may increase demand for US currency if Friday's payrolls again show a respectable value. The fact that the rate is rising and the labor market is holding steady is just a fantastic alignment for the American economy. A new report on US inflation will be released in mid-December, and that report will serve as the foundation for the decisions made at the FOMC meeting that same month. If inflation resumes its insignificant slowdown, the FOMC members' rhetoric may become more constrictive. Any of this will not harm the US dollar. The market itself is still the problem. I conclude that the upward trend section's construction is complete and has increased complexity to five waves. As a result, I suggest making sales with targets close to the estimated 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci. There is a chance that the upward section of the trend will become more complicated and take on an extended form, but this chance is currently at most 10%. The construction of a new downward trend segment is predicated on the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. Since the wave marking permits the construction of a downward trend section, I cannot advise purchasing the instrument. With targets around the 1.1707 mark, or 161.8% Fibonacci, sales are now more accurate. The wave e, however, can evolve into an even longer shape. Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/328530

Monetary policies of major central banks matter a lot to markets, setting the tone for long-term trends. For this reason, markets give a strong response when the Federal Reserve or the ECB revise their agenda. For the time being, the thing is that policymakers of the US regulator appear with contradictory comments. Some of them disapprove of a jumbo rate hike by more than 100 basis points. Others insist that the time is ripe to ease the pace of monetary tightening and moderate further rate hikes to below 50 basis points. No wonder, market participants are baffled to draw conclusions from mixed remarks. What exactly is the cornerstone of monetary policy of any central bank? Inflation dynamics for sure! However, inflation data is on tap only once a month, commonly in the middle of a month. Another point is that the consumer price index is the aggregate value consisting of several metrics and indicators. Each of them is a component that adds to the overall picture. Hence, one metric is not enough to draw a conclusion on inflation as a whole.              Besides, there are other indirect indicators that have an impact on inflation dynamics. Among them are durable goods orders and building permits. Recently, market participants have been alerted to these two metrics. Does it make sense to keep close tabs on them? To answer this question, we should grasp the essence of these two indicators.      For instance, what are durable goods like? They are consumer electronics and vehicles. In other words, it is the merchandise consumers use for a few years. Apparel does not belong to this category. If people purchase durable goods once in three, four, or even five years, they will hardly influence inflation. Indeed, headline inflation depends on changes in the prices of consumer goods such as food and transport fares. Besides, the prices of clothes and medicines make a more serious impact on inflation than the prices of a private jet or bicycle. On top of that, most durable goods could be sold in the second-hand market. Commonly, someone buys a new car when the old one has already been sold. Importantly, prices of second-hand durable goods have a profound influence on inflation. Used cars are always available for sale in greater numbers than new cars. All in all, durable goods orders shed light on further changes in the overall quantity of such goods which have been always available in abundance. In turn, durable goods orders make a minor impact on inflation.               In other words, even though durable goods orders log considerable growth from a month ago, hypothetically we suppose that headline inflation might slow down a bit in the not-too-distant future. In this case, the second-hand market should be taken into account. When it comes to the market of brand-new goods, an increase in durable goods orders mirrors growing demand which, in turn, accelerates consumer inflation. To sum up, both metrics offset each other and are of little importance to inflation. The same is true about building permits, albeit to a lesser extent. It is common knowledge that the US housing market is one of the largest in the world. In fact, the US ranks first in the world in terms of the number of residential buildings. For better understanding, the US offers its nationals twice the bigger housing space per capita than there is in Germany, the high-income and advanced economy which is defined as the powerhouse of the European economy. People can afford to buy a new smartphone once a year and a car – roughly once in five years. In contrast, a home that is more than 10 years old is considered relatively new if it is properly maintained.                     Just walk downtown in an American city and check the dates when residential properties were built. A 50-year-old building still looks robust. Speaking about that particular economic metric, analysts keep track of building permits, not construction sites. Perhaps when a project is greenlighted, a building company needs to amass money for a few months before launching a project in practice. All in all, even though the number of building permits is on the rise, it has no effect on the real estate market and, in turn, on supply and headline inflation. The bottom line is that both metrics make no impact on headline inflation. Building permits do not matter at all. As for durable goods orders, even though some significant upward or downward changes are recorded, the effect will be minimal.               

US stocks are entering a holding pattern ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech as some investors look for him to somewhat ease up on the hawkish rhetoric. ​ The economy is weakening and traders want to see the Fed Chair deliver a clear message that they will downshift their pace of tightening and are close to hitting the breaks. ​ No one wants to put on a major position before Powell and they probably won’t if he sticks to his script that the pace of hikes will slow but they still have more to do to bring inflation down. Wall Street is still rather pessimistic on stocks and many traders might focus on going defensive. ​ US Data Private payrolls showed job growth is slowing. ​ The November ADP payrolls report showed an increase of 127,000 jobs, down from the 239,000 prior reading and well below the 200,000 consensus estimate. ​ ADP Chief Economist Richardson noted, “our data suggest that Federal Reserve tightening is having an impact on job creation and pay gains.” Manufacturing jobs declined by 100,000, while leisure and hospitality jobs rose by 224,000.  ​The holiday factor could be driving some of these service sector jobs so the January report could be when we see a significant slowdown with hiring. ​ The second look at Q3 GDP showed upward revisions, but core growth is slowing and supporting the idea that inflation is weighing on both business and consumer spending. ​ The economy is still expected to have weakening economic data points going forward as the impact of Fed rate hikes starts to be felt. ​ A soft landing or a short and shallow recession still seems to be the favorite scenarios for how 2023 will be. ​ Bitcoin Bitcoin is higher as Wall Street enters a holding pattern ahead of Fed Chair Powell. ​ The news flow has been plentiful, mostly downbeat for cryptos but the focus is shifting on the future of crypto legislation. ​ Pressure is growing for some clear direction on how to put guidelines to avoid another FTX moment. ​ There will still be a lot more pain that comes from the FTX collapse but for now, that seems to be mostly priced in. Over the next couple of weeks, we should start to get an idea of how crypto legislation will look and that should ultimately be long-term positive for the cryptoverse, but it could put added strain on some struggling crypto companies or stablecoins. ​ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Stocks await Powell, US data, crypto focus shifts to legislation - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The Canadian dollar has posted slight gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3541, down 0.28%. Will Powell’s speech be a market-mover? All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell, who will deliver a speech later today at the Brookings Institute in Washington. The fact that Powell’s remarks are the center of attention is an indication that market movement has become very dependent on rate policy. The Fed is expected to ease up on its pace of rates at the December meeting and deliver a 50-bp hike, after back-to-back increases of 75 bp. Still, the markets haven’t excluded the possibility of another 75 bp move. Investors are hoping to glean some clues from Powell as to when the Fed plans to wind up the current tightening cycle. Read next: EU works on a price cap on Russian oil. According to Craig Erlam (Oanda) OPEC+ think of a production cut| FXMAG.COM After the US inflation report underperformed, the markets climbed sharply and the US dollar sagged on speculation of a dovish pivot from the Fed. This exuberance didn’t last long, as one Fed member after another sent out a hawkish message, warning that inflation was not yet beaten and the rate hikes would continue. There is some uncertainty as to when the Fed funds rate will peak, with most forecasts projecting a range between 4.75%-5.25%. The Canadian dollar has just ended a nasty slide which saw it lose almost 300 points. We could see further volatility on Friday, when both Canada and the US release employment reports. The ADP payrolls report, released today, showed a small gain of 127, 000 jobs, down from 239,000 and shy of the consensus of 200,000. The report is not considered an accurate indication for nonfarm payrolls on Friday, and the ADP recently changed its methodology, which raises further questions about its accuracy. The forecast of nonfarm payrolls is 200,000, which would be a significant drop from the previous reading of 200,000. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD tested support at 1.3576 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.3478 There is resistance at 1.3656 and 1.3782 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canadian dollar ends slide, Powell next - MarketPulseMarketPulse

USD/CAD struggles to gain any meaningful traction amid the prevalent USD selling bias. A modest downtick in oil prices undermines the Loonie and helps limit the downside. Traders now look to the US PCE inflation data and ISM PMI short-term opportunities. The USD/CAD pair consolidates the previous day's heavy losses and oscillates in a narrow range, around the 1.3400 mark through the early European session on Thursday. The US Dollar languishes near a multi-month low in the wake of dovish comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday and acts as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. In fact, Powell sent a clear message that the US central bank will soften its stance and said that it was time to moderate the pace of interest rate hikes. This leads to an extension of the recent sharp decline in the US Treasury bond yields and keeps the USD bulls on the defensive. Apart from this, the risk-on mood - as depicted by a positive tone around the equity markets - is seen as another factor weighing on the safe-haven Greenback. That said, a modest retracement in Crude Oil prices from a one-week high touched on Wednesday undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and lends support to the USD/CAD pair. The likelihood that OPEC+ will leave output unchanged at its meeting on Sunday and demand concerns act as a headwind for the black liquid. Nevertheless, the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the USD suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the downside. This, in turn, supports prospects for an extension of this week's sharp pullback from the vicinity of mid-1.3600s, or the highest level since November 4 set on Tuesday. Hence, any attempted recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - the Core PCE Price Index - and ISM Manufacturing PMI. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will influence the USD. Traders will further take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities around the USD/CAD pair.

Last night's speech by Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, was one of the key events of the day. Investors were expecting clues about further changes in US interest rates, and they got them. Powell sounded more dovish. During his speech at the Brookings Institute, Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed may slow the pace of interest rate hikes in December, "the time for a moderate pace of rate hikes may come as early as the December meeting," - Powell said, while adding that it is likely "that restoring price stability will require maintaining policy at restrictive levels for some time." In addition, Powell added that historically premature policy easing has been strongly discouraged. "We will stay the course until the job is done," he said. - he concluded. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also said that he "doesn't want to over-tighten" interest rates, as the central bank doesn't see fit to "crash the economy and clean up after it." Nevertheless, answering questions at a session organized by the Brookings Institute, Powell stressed that "cutting rates is not something I want to do anytime soon," the BBN service concludes. This was the Fed chairman's last public appearance before the December interest rate decision. Source: Conotoxia MT5, USDIndex, Daily Markets in a little euphoria The U.S. Nasdaq index hit its highest level in 10 weeks yesterday, the AUD/USD pair rate hit its highest level in 11 weeks, NZD/USD rose to levels seen 2.5 months ago, gold reached its highest level in 2 weeks, and the dollar index fell in November in percentage terms by the strongest amount since 2010. This reaction of the markets seems to show quite well how high investors' hopes were placed on Powell's speech, and that they were not disappointed. In addition to Powell's speech, events from China may also provide support for the markets. Investors may be pleased with China's softening stance on Covid. The top official in charge of tight restrictions on the Covid outbreak said the country's fight against the virus is entering a new phase amid a waning omicron variant, rising vaccination rates and broader experience in preventing Covid. Source: Conotoxia MT5, US100, H4 What's next ahead? After the Fed chairman's speech, it seems that the key for the markets may be Friday and data from the US labor market. It is in it that high hopes may be placed to resist the economic slowdown. However, if the labor market situation began to deteriorate as well, the Fed could face a difficult choice. Which to fight? With inflation or with the deterioration in US employment. That is what we will find out tomorrow. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Powell said that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will slow down the pace of rate hikes from next month, while insisting that smaller increases are less important than how much further to go and for how long. But all investors heard was ‘the Fed will hike by 50bp next month and bla bla bla…’ US yields and the dollar fell, equities rallied!!! Forex The US dollar’s depreciation is being cheered across the market. The EURUSD pushed above the 200-DMA as the dollar-yen fell to 136.50.And if Japan doesn’t need to spend its FX reserves to strengthen the back of the yen, they could well use it to increase the defense spending, without increasing taxes and without cutting spending. Japan And Japan is not the only country that increases defense spending. Bigger global budget for spending boosts defense stocks! Commodities In commodities, American crude rallied past the $81pb yesterday as US crude oil inventories fell by 12.6 million barrels last week, well above the 3.2 million barrel draw expected by analysts. It is because exports ran hot, and refineries hit their highest capacity since August 2019. But be careful with the rising recession odds, because investors have been cutting their net speculative positions despite the supply concerns, and that’s probably going to limit the topside potential! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Investors don’t want to hear what Powell tries to say! 3:49 FX & data roundup 6:50 Defense stocks to continue outperform 7:56 Crude oil jumps but positive potential is limited Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Powell #speech #USD #economic #data #ADP #JOLTS #GDP #NFP #unemployment #EUR #inflation #TTF #natgas #crudeoil #defense #stocks #Themes #trading #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The level of $80 could play an important role in determining whether the upward move continues or if WTI will encounter resistance and pullback once again   While the situation on the oil market has been quite uncertain as of late, particularly after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, prospects of slowing demand resulting from economic downturn have been weighing increasingly on the price of this key commodity. Furthermore, the ongoing zero-covid China policy has significantly impacted demand prospects in the world's second biggest economy as lockdowns and industrial shutdowns have reduced the need for transportation and impacted shipping routes. Despite this, there is still one last OPEC+ decision left for 2022 and while it is unlikely the group will decide to adjust production, any notable shift in production quotas could have an effect on prices and bring an increase in volatility as we head towards the end of the year. The level of $80 could play an important role in determining whether the upward move continues or if WTI will encounter resistance and pullback once again.  This week's prints stand for the last data pack ahead of December Fed decision, supposing they came as a surprise would Fed go for a 75bp rate?   This week's highly anticipated data pack may play an important role in the final FED decision of 2022 as the central bank continues its fight against inflation while attempting to not cause a demand shock. Consumers remain under extreme pressure as prices rise across the board while rising commodity prices add to the problem and as the central bank's hawkish policy continues to constrain demand. The US central bank has shown a willingness to adjust its policy according to the data and this time could be similar as many begin to speculate as to when it will begin to reverse its policy while others wonder if the target rate will be adjusted further. In either case, the FED might be running out of ammo when it comes to tackling inflation and may choose a more cautious approach in order to ensure that it is mitigated in a sustainable manner. Read next: Steen Jakobsen: ECB strategy is praying, hoping and waiting... not exactly action which gives hope for real economy| FXMAG.COM   This NFP report may also have an important role when it comes to the strength of the US Dollar as the greenback continues to be under pressure after a period where it dominated all other currencies   In addition to playing a key part in the inflation discussion, this NFP report may also have an important role when it comes to the strength of the US Dollar as the greenback continues to be under pressure after a period where it dominated all other currencies. The USD Index has been dropping for several weeks and while it may be unlikely that we see a significant rebound, the FED's decision may lead to a change in sentiment as we head into 2023. Furthermore, the USDIDX is testing the 200 SMA on the daily chart after trading in the reaction area around 106 points which may act as a support if it manages to hold. As more central banks continue to catch up with the FED's policy, we could be seeing a shift in the balance of power in the currency market away from the US dollar which has reigned over others in recent times.  

Fed Chair Powell has a clear ambition to hike by 50bp in December, and likely the same in February 2023, and maybe more. Given that, and a likely terminal funds rate of at least 5%, the drift lower in the US 10yr yield looks anomalous. Then again, year end can be like that. A move back above 4% still looks probable – it just might take a bit longer to achieve A hawkish hike (even if smaller) now needed to help re-tighten conditions If Chair Powell wanted to use yesterday’s speech to help re-tighten financial conditions, then he won’t be very happy with the impact market reaction. Market rates have fallen, credit spreads are tighter and effectively we’ve gone “risk on”. Financial conditions started out at about 0.6 of a standard deviation tight versus normal pre-Powell. They are now at closer to 0.5 of a standard deviation tight. We think it needs to be a full standard deviation tight, to be at least somewhat statistically meaningful. The reason we are not tighter is (mostly) lower market rates and tighter credit spreads. The US 10yr is now down to 3.7%, more than 50bp below the peak seen at end-October / early-November. Some 8bp of that has come in the wake of Chair Powell’s speech today. At 3.7%, the 10yr yield is some 130bp below the discounted terminal rate of 5%. That’s quite a spread. We think it’s far too wide. It’s telling us one of two things: (1) If the Fed hits 5%, then it’s not sustainable and a cut is coming really soon after that, or (2) The Fed will in fact not hit 5% at all, and they are done in December. The flip from 22 to 23 does not magically rid us of inflation risks Our view? We think the Fed does hit 5% (in February), and that the 10yr should be comfortably back above 4% in anticipation of that. This can happen soon, but could also morph into a turn of the year call, as we're now in this weird end of year swing where anything can happen. There can be some net buying going on as investors square books into year end, often buying back duration that had been shorted during the year. The first quarter of 2023 will bring the realization that the flip from 22 to 23 does not magically rid us of inflation risks that the Fed will feel emboldened to continue to address. Market rates are not fully reflecting this; but they will. Real Treasury yields are positive across the curve, the Fed will want to avoid an early drop Source: Refinitiv, ING EUR inflation solidifies expectations for a 50bp hike The eurozone flash CPI sees inflation having decelerated to 10% in November versus expectations of only a moderate slowing to 10.4% had surprisingly little effect on the market. Our economists also see this report having strengthened the case for a 50bp hike in December after the series of 75bp over the past meetings, but the market has been leaning to a slowed pace already in the wake of the first country readings at the start of the week, reducing the discount to only slightly more than 20% for still another larger 75bp hike after around 50% previously. The more relevant core measure of inflation remains at a painfully elevated 5% Yet away from the energy price-induced, headline-grabbing drop to 10%, the more relevant core measure of inflation has not budged and remains at a painfully elevated 5% year over year, in line with the consensus. The European Central Bank has rightly shifted the focus of the policy debate to underlying inflation and its persistence, being well aware that drops in the volatile headline can lead to false dawns. The bond rally has limited - but not reversed - ECB and Fed hike expectations Source: Refinitiv, ING   The ECB’s Isabel Schnabel has been the most vocal about still worrying underlying trends in her latest speech last week. Chief Economist Lane has employed a more measured tone in his latest expansive blog, though, warning not to read too much into current measures of underlying inflation. In particular he cautioned that the staggered adjustment of wages to the increase in the cost of living can play out over several years, but shouldn’t automatically signal a change in overall wage dynamics, i.e. the onset of a much feared wage-price spiral. The ECB should still have qualms about letting financial conditions ease too much, too early That the ECB isn’t done raising rates is clear. While it is widely accepted that the ECB will have to move into restrictive territory is also widely accepted, the latest inflation data has taken the edge off calls for more larger pre-emptive hiking. This also means that the tailwind for a further curve flattening dynamic is fading, but it should not distract from the prospect of rates possibly staying higher for longer. Similar to the Fed, the ECB should still have qualms about letting financial conditions ease too much, too early in its battle with inflation.   Today's events and market view US rates should remain in the driving seat given the busy data slate and the mixed signals that come from them. Yesterday's US GDP revisions for instance have pointed to a more resilient underlying demand, while last night’s Fed Beige Book hinted at slowing price pressures. Prices will remain in focus with today’s PCE deflator. That could be interesting as it is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and does not always match what happens in core CPI. Today’s ISM manufacturing could drift just below the break-even 50 level, while the employment component, which markets will draw on ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data, is seen stable at 50. Even after Fed Chair Powell’s speech yesterday, some attention should still fall on Fed speakers in the final days ahead of the pre-meeting black out period. Today will see appearances of the Fed’s Logan, Bowman and Barr.   In secondary markets France and Spain will auction their final bonds for the year. Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

With CPI, PPI, import prices and now, most significantly, the core PCE deflator pointing to weakening price pressures, the Federal Reserve's hawkish messaging is being questioned by the market. Admittedly the consumer is still spending, but it appears that pricing power is moderating and there may not be the need for a prolonged period of high rates  US inflation surprises on the downside again Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, tried his best to talk up the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate policy story, but the market didn’t believe him yesterday and will be even less inclined to do so after today’s personal income and spending report. The 0.2% month-on-month core Personal Consumer Expenditure deflator outcome (consensus 0.3%) is another inflation surprise with the year-on-year rate slowing to 5% from 5.2%. This is significant as it is the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation and with pipeline price pressures, such as import prices and PPI, also continuing to soften after we got the soft core CPI print, it poses real challenges to the Fed’s narrative on inflation. Read next: There are quite strong indications that Fed and ECB will go for 50bp rate hikes | FXMAG.COM In fact, the situation could get even trickier for the Fed with the chart below plotting the core PCE deflator against the National Federation of Independent Businesses price plans survey. It shows that the proportion of companies looking to raise their prices over the next three months has dropped sharply very recently, presumably reflecting some evidence of softening demand and rising inventory levels. This relationship suggests the core PCE deflator could head down to 3% by the end of 1Q, which would argue that we are getting close to the top for the Fed funds target rate. Moreover, if the economy does fall into recession as many fear, that corporate pricing power story will weaken much further and could contribute to inflation getting close to the 2% target by the end of 2023. Weakening corporate pricing power points to a sharp fall in inflation Source: Macrobond, ING Activity still holding up for now For now though, the activity side is holding up well with real consumer spending rising 0.5% MoM in October, the strongest gain since January. The news on the Black Friday/Cyber Monday retail sales has also been good and means that real consumer spending is on track to rise at a 4% annualised rate in the current quarter. We also expect to see a strong jobs number tomorrow given that job vacancies exceed the total number of unemployed Americans by a factor of almost two. The Fed will likely point to these factors as justifying an ongoing hawkish position insofar as demand exceeding supply will keep the inflation threat alive. A 50bp interest rate hike for December still looks a certainty and we continue to expect a final 50bp hike in February. For any more hikes we are going to need to see strong demand continue, but with US CEO confidence at the lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis and the housing market deteriorating rapidly, it is not our base case. Read this article on THINK TagsUS Inflation Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Risk appetite got a bit of a boost overnight despite disappointing Chinese NBS PMI figures. Health authorities in the world's second largest economy promised to revise the way in which zero-covid policies would be enacted, and touted progress in vaccinations for the elderly. The latter is seen as a key point in finally getting China in a position where restrictions can be lifted. Chinese factory orders hit the lowest level in seven months. But that was for the larger, government-run companies that are surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics. The private measure of smaller, more export-oriented business is carried out by Caixin, which could moderate the current outlook What could move the markets Meanwhile, focus is on the rest of the world as PMIs are expected to repeat the upbeat tone seen during the preliminary results published two weeks. Here are some of the major factors to watch out for: China: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI is forecast to come in at 48.9, down from 49.2 previously. But given the result out of the official survey, the market is likely to be not surprised if the measure is closer to 48. On the other hand, a smaller drop than expected could add to the current positive momentum and buoy commodity currencies. Europe: German flash PMI was the standout, coming in well above expectations and breaking a multi-month slide. It stayed well into contraction, but could be shining a light at the end of the tunnel. Particularly when taken in combination with the surprise drop in inflation in the largest economy in Europe. Although it doesn't appear to be enough to shake the perception that the ECB will act quite aggressively at their final meeting for the year. Eurozone PMI is expected to repeat the flash reading of 47.3, which was a substantial improvement over the 46.4 of October. But, it's still below the 50 level, which separates contraction from expansion. Europe continues to contract, but not as much as expected. This also can be seen in the context of Eurozone inflation also coming in below expectations, just like with Germany. But, it should be pointed out that core CPI stayed steady, suggesting the improvement in inflation reading is due more to easing energy prices than a structural change in the shared economy. United States The final reading for S&P Manufacturing PMI is expected to be the same as the flash reading at 47.6, which was significantly down compared to 50.4 in the prior month, and well below the technical contraction of 49.9 expected. But this could be due to methodological differences. This is because the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November came in broadly speaking within expectations, at 50.2 compared to 50.0 expected. A couple of decimal points isn't a major difference this close to the line between contraction and expansion. But, it's expected that ISM will revise their measure down to 49.8, meaning both PMI measures will move into contraction, if expectations are met.

Tomorrow has the all-important release of US labor market numbers. But the Fed's Powell kind of already robbed the thunder from the release during his speech at the Brookings Institute yesterday. He basically implied that the Fed would start slowing down its tightening at the next meeting. Naturally the market jumped and the dollar weakened in response. Now the question is whether there will be follow-through on the optimism with the jobs numbers. November's NFP is expected to come in lighter compared to the prior month, but it should be noted that the data has been markedly outperforming expectations lately. Taken in context of the latest BLS report showing that the labor market remained tight, the consensus for what to expect out of NFP has drifted up, slightly. A week ago, analysts were forecasting 200K jobs added, but that has now moved up to 210K jobs, compared to 261K in October. The trends remain favorable Prior to covid, a 210K jobs report would be considered relatively good. But referring back to the BLS report that came out yesterday, there are some worrying signs. As mentioned, in October there were 261K jobs created, but 353K jobs went off the market. Meaning that companies are closing down job offers faster than people are being hired. The largest drop in job offers occurred in state and local governments, followed by manufacturing. Combined, that represented the bulk of the reduction in job openings. For now, the market remains tight, mostly because the extraordinarily large gap between job openings and jobseekers that occurred from the pandemic is still there. There were 6.1 million people looking for work last month, but there were 10.3 million jobs for them. Despite this mismatch, wages have failed to keep up with inflation. Current expectations are that average hourly earnings will slow to 0.3% from 0.4% reported in October. Putting the pieces together The Fed's main worry though this cycle has been that higher inflation combined with an extremely tight labor market would lead to a wage-price spiral. However, that hasn't happened, giving the Fed plenty of space to raise rates to combat inflation. Recently, inflation has been starting to come down, from a combination of higher borrowing costs and worries about an impending recession. The prolonged loss of purchasing power among American workers as their salaries fail to keep up with prices would be expected to lead to demand destruction. Which would also contribute to reducing inflation, as Americans see their pocketbooks being pinched and refuse to pay higher prices. As retailers across the country report rising inventories and some are suspending buying new inventory for the start of next year, the natural expectation is that the economy will slow down. Which in turn also contributes to lower inflation. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.7%, and so is the participation rate. This is reflected in the BLS data showing the number of people quitting to find better pay far outweighed the number of people being fired.

USD/CAD remains indecisive after two-day downtrend, defends weekly gains. Federal Reserve policymakers’ dovish bias, softer United States data weigh US Dollar. Chatters surrounding China, Oil price cap on Russian exports test WTI bulls. Downbeat expectations from Canada, United States employment report tease Canadian Dollar buyers. USD/CAD portrays the market’s indecision ahead of the monthly employment data from the United States and Canada during early Friday. In doing so, the Canadian Dollar fails to justify the retreat in the WTI crude oil, Canada’s key export item, amid a lackluster US Dollar. That said, the Loonie pair seesaws around 1.3430 by the press time, after a two-day downtrend. Even if the USD/CAD pair remains inactive as of late, the hopes of slower rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) contrasts with the recently hawkish bias surrounding the Bank of Canada (BOC) to keep the bears hopeful. It’s worth noting that the looming Oil price cap from the Group of Seven (G7) nations and recovery in China’s Covid conditions hint at the further firming of Canada’s key earner, which in turn could weigh on the Loonie pair. Federal Reserve policymakers contrast with Bank of Canada officials to favor USD/CAD bears The dovish bias of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, as well as downbeat comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, initially raised hopes of easy rate hikes. Following that, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman stated that (It is) appropriate for us to slow the pace of increases. Before him, Fed Governor Jerome Powell also teased the slowing of a rate hike while US Treasury Secretary Yellen also advocated for a soft landing. Further, Vice Chair of supervision, Michael Barr, also said, “We may shift to a slower pace of rate increases at the next meeting.”  It’s worth noting that the recent comments from New York Fed’s John Williams seemed to have tested the US Dollar bears as the policymakers stated that the Fed has a ways to go with rate rises. On the other hand, Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem testified in late November while saying, “We expect our policy rate will need to rise further.” Additionally, BOC’s Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers said, “It will take time to get back to solid growth with low inflation but we will get there.” Differences between United States and Canada data also weigh on Loonie pair On Thursday, United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, matched 5.0% market forecasts on YoY but eased to 0.2% MoM versus 0.3% expected. Further, US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November eased to 49.0 versus 49.7 expected and 50.2 prior. Earlier in the week, the US ADP Employment Change marked the lowest readings since January 2021 with 127K figure for November versus 200K forecast and 239K previous readings. Further, the second estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the third quarter (Q3) marked 2.9% growth versus 2.6% initial forecasts. Talking about Canada, Labor Productivity jumped to 0.6% in the third quarter (Q3) versus -0.1% expected and 0.1% prior (revised). Further, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November increased to 49.6 from 49.3 market expectations and 48.8 prior. Previously, Canada’s Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the third quarter (Q3) eased to 2.9% versus 3.5% expected and 3.2% (revised down) prior. Oil buyers stay hopeful WTI crude oil remains on the bull’s radar despite the latest retreat to $81.00. The reason could be linked to the comments from the Group of Seven Nations (G7) Price Cap Coalition, as well as hopes for China’s economic recovery. Late on Thursday, Reuters quoted an Official from the G7 Price Cap Coalition as saying, “We are 'very very close' to agreement on $60-a- barrel price cap on Russian oil exports.” The diplomat also showed optimism about agreeing on refined products price cap by February 5. Further, the consecutive three days of the downtrend of Chinese daily Covid infections from a record high allowed the policymakers to tease the “next stage” in battling the virus while announcing multiple easing of the activity-control measures. Additionally, a likely inaction at this week’s meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+. Considering Canada’s reliance on reliance on Crude Oil exports and likely hardships for the black gold supplies, as well as improvement in demand, the USD/CAD pair may witness further downside. United States, Canada job numbers are the key Given the likely downbeat outcome from both the Canadian and United States employment data, USD/CAD pair traders may try to find greater details and could react with more aggression in case of a surprise outcome. That said, the headline US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is likely to ease with a 200K print versus 261K prior while the Unemployment Rate could remain unchanged at 3.7%. It should be noted that a likely easing in the Average Hourly Earnings for the stated month could also weigh on the USD/CAD price. On the other hand, Canada’s Net Change in Employment may decline to 5K versus 108.3K prior while the Unemployment Rate could increase to 5.3% from 5.2% previous readings. USD/CAD technical analysis Despite the latest inaction, the USD/CAD pair portrays a clear U-turn from the 50-DMA, as well as a downward-sloping resistance line from October 13, currently joining each other around 1.3570-75. However, a failure to break a two-week-old ascending support line, near 1.3400 by the press time, keeps the Loonie pair buyers hopeful. Even if the quote breaks the 1.3400 support line, a convergence of the 100-DMA and an ascending trend line from August 25, close to 1.3290 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the USD/CAD pair sellers. Alternatively, a clear upside break of the 1.3570-75 resistance confluence will need validation from the recent peak of 1.3645 to convince USD/CAD bulls. Following that, a run-up towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the Loonie pair’s August-October upside, near 1.3680, can’t be ruled out. It should be noted that the USD/CAD pair’s advances past 1.3680 may witness a bumpy road around 1.3840 before the bulls could aim for the yearly high marked in October around 1.3980. Overall, USD/CAD is likely to remain sidelined with a short-term downside bias. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected     search   g_translate    

Markets are looking out for today's US employment data as it could signal whether the Fed will finally end its cycle of aggressive interest rate hikes. Wednesday's ADP jobs report already came in well below expectations, while Jerome Powell's recent speech was less hawkish than expected. If upcoming news indicate a surge in lay-offs, sharp fall in employment and dip in new job gains, then this means that inflation is likely to ease soon, so the bank can confidently start to reduce the rate increases. This is also what Powell said when he indicated that Fed rates may increase by 0.50%, not 0.75%, in December. In short, below-forecast labor market figures could encourage the Fed to shift to a softer stance, which will be positive for markets. It could lead to a new rally in equities, especially in the US. As for Treasury yields, they will go down along with dollar. Forecasts for today: AUD/USD The pair is trading below 0.6830. If positive sentiment increases, the quote could break out of the resistance level and head towards 0.6900. USD/CAD A renewed rally in crude oil prices could put pressure on the pair. A drop below 1.3400 will bring it down to 1.3300. Relevance up to 06:00 2022-12-05 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/328785

While macro factors continue to point at dollar resilience in our view, markets are fully buying into the Fed's pivot story, and have turned more structurally bearish on the dollar. Today's US payrolls may fall short of triggering an inversion of this trend, and USD downside risks persist. Keep an eye on Canadian numbers too ahead of next week's BoC meeting USD: Payrolls may not offer lifeline to the dollar With the DXY index correcting by more than 7% since the early November peak, and trading below 105.00 for the first time since July, it is now evident that markets have operated a structural shift towards a bearish dollar narrative. It’s also evident that such a shift is primarily due to expectations that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. As explained by our US economist here, investors have called Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s higher-for-longer “bluff”, applying a larger weight on four indicators (CPI, PPI, import prices and yesterday’s PCE) that are pointing to abating price pressures. Fed Funds futures show peak rate expectations have dropped below 4.90%, after having priced in 5.25% less than a month ago. In our view, this radical shift in the market’s reaction function is premature, and may not be sustainable if the Fed increases the volume of its rate protest by sounding more stubbornly hawkish and the next inflation readings argue against a rapid descent in inflation. Incidentally, the global macro picture remains challenging – especially in Europe (where colder weather may push gas prices higher) and China – which also points to dollar resilience. However, we must acknowledge that markets are approaching today’s US payrolls with a strong bearish rhetoric on the dollar, and would likely jump on more risk-on (USD-negative) bets unless we see a convincingly strong payroll read. The consensus is centred around 200k, and we forecast 220k, with the unemployment rate staying at 3.7%. Those numbers would be quite respectable and indicate that the jobs market has indeed remained extremely tight, but while it may halt the dollar’s trend, it could fail to invert it. All in all, the balance of risks appears slightly tilted to the downside for the dollar today. A contraction in payrolls to 150k could generate a fresh round of large USD selling.    The yen should be exceptionally sensitive to the jobs figures today. The main risk for USD/JPY is that UST 10Y yields fail to find extra support at 3.50%: a further bond rally could force a break below the 134.50 200-d MA and unlock additional downside potential for USD/JPY. Still, markets may struggle to live with sub-3.50% rates for long in the current environment. Francesco Pesole EUR: Ignoring some warning signs EUR/USD moves should only be a function of the market’s reaction to US payrolls today. There is a non-negligible risk we explore 1.0600, with the pair not having any clear resistance levels until the 1.0780 6-month highs. We are, however, getting the feeling that markets are ignoring at least one warning sign for the euro. The recovery in business sentiment in the eurozone has undoubtedly been the result of lower gas prices, which have benefitted from mild weather in Europe. TTF contracts are trading at one-month highs now and may see further upside volatility in the near term as temperatures in northern Europe are expected to fall. A significant recovery in gas prices would likely make the recent rally in EUR/USD unsustainable. On the domestic side, we’ll see PPI numbers in the eurozone today, and hear from ECB president Christine Lagarde again. Yesterday, she sounded quite hawkish, signalling the need to keep inflation expectations anchored and implicitly leaving the door open for a 75bp move in December. Markets currently price in 55bp, and we are calling for a half-point hike. Francesco Pesole GBP: Cable nearing the peak? There are no domestic drivers for the pound today given a light data calendar and no Bank of England speakers. As discussed in the dollar section above, US payrolls may fail to invert the bearish dollar trend and GBP/USD may find a bit more support around 1.2300-1.2350. However, as for EUR/USD, cable is not factoring in the negative implications of rebounding gas prices and weak economic fundamentals. A return to 1.1500 around the turn of the year seems appropriate in our view. Francesco Pesole CAD: Jobs numbers quite key for BoC Payrolls will also be published in Canada today. We must note the employment series has been rather volatile, with the October figures coming in at a very strong 108k, which was entirely driven by full-time hiring. The consensus is centred around a very small 10k increase, and there is a high chance we could see a negative read. This would probably keep markets leaning in favour of a 25bp rate hike by the Bank of Canada next week (currently, 30bp are in the price). However, we see room for some upside surprise today in the jobs numbers and see a higher chance of another 50bp by the BoC. USD/CAD may soon re-test the 1.3290 100-d MA, but would require a more steady rebound in crude prices to keep the bearish momentum going. Francesco Pesole Read this article on THINK TagsPayrolls FX Dollar CAD Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The Canadian dollar continues to show limited movement. In the European session, USD/CAD is almost unchanged at 1.3433. We are likely to see stronger movement in the North American session, as both the US and Canada release the November employment reports. US nonfarm payrolls expected to soften Today’s highlight is the US nonfarm employment report, with a consensus of 200,000 for November. This follows a 261,000 gain in October. The US employment market has been surprisingly resilient, considering the sharp rise in interest rates. The employment market has recently started to cool off, but unless today’s NFP release significantly underperforms, it won’t change the Fed’s view that it is still too early to tell if inflation is on its way down. Canada’s economy showed a massive gain in jobs in October, with 108,300. This was ten times the estimate of 10,000. November is expected to show a small gain of 5,000, with the employment rate projected to tick higher to 5.3%, up from 5.2%. Canada’s economy is generally performing well, and today’s employment report is the final key release prior to the Bank of Canada’s rate meeting on December 7th. The Bank of Canada has been aggressive in its tightening, in order to curb inflation which is running at a 6.9% clip. Like the Fed, the BoC is looking for signs that inflation has peaked, but until then we can expect oversize rate hikes to continue, with a 50-bp hike likely next week. Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday sent the US dollar sharply lower, as Powell’s comments were not as hawkish as feared. Powell said that more evidence was needed to show that inflation was falling, and reiterated that rates would likely rise higher than the Fed has projected in September. Still, investors chose to focus on Powell’s broad hint that the Fed would ease the pace of rates next week with a 50-bp move, after four straight hikes of 75 bp.   USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD has support at 1.3398 and 1.3300 There is resistance at 1.3478 and 1.3576 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.  

Strong job creation and a big increase in wages underscore the Federal Reserve's argument that a lot more work needs to be done to get inflation under control. It has certainly jolted the market. But with recessionary fears lingering, market participants will remain sceptical over how long the strong performance can last US job growth was strong and wages rose in November 263,000 Number of US jobs added in November   Surging employment and wages show the economy remains strong The US economy added 263,000 jobs in November, well ahead of the 200,000 consensus estimate, even when accounting for a 23,000 downward revision to the past couple of months of data. Private payrolls rose 221,000, led by 88,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality and 82,000 in education and health. Construction was up 20,000 and manufacturing gained 14,000. However, there was weakness in trade & transport (-49,000) and retail trade (-30,000). There was more positive news for workers in the form of big wage gains of 0.6% month-on-month, double what was expected, which leaves the annual rate of wage growth at 5.1%. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% despite the household survey showing an apparent drop of 138,000 people saying they were in work – the second consecutive decline. The unemployment rate held steady because the participation rate fell yet again as workers remain reluctant to return to the workforce. Read next: FX: Today’s US Payrolls With A Strong Bearish Rhetoric On The USD| FXMAG.COM Given the Fed’s repeated warnings that rates are likely to stay higher for longer to ensure inflation is defeated, officials will be hoping that today’s numbers will be the jolt needed to get market participants to finally believe the Fed’s intent. Payrolls growth is slowing, but not fast enough for the Fed (Jobs added per month '000s) Source: Macrobond, ING Jobs market remains far too hot for the Fed In his speech earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussed the prospect of declines in inflation relating to core goods and housing. His focus though was on another area, core services other than housing, where the situation is more troubling. This grouping accounts for more than half of the core PCE index, the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation. The tightness of the jobs market and the implication for wage pressures, which make up the largest cost in delivering these services, is therefore key to the outlook for interest rates. In the speech, he argued that “job growth remains far in excess of the pace needed to accommodate population growth over time—about 100,000 per month by many estimates.” Consequently, wage growth “shows only tentative signs of returning to balance”. Today’s 263,000 jobs number confirms we remain a long way off from demand balancing with supply, which would ease those labour market related inflation pressures. Adding to the Fed’s problems, monetary conditions have loosened in recent weeks as the dollar and longer-dated Treasury yields have fallen and credit spreads have narrowed. This is undoing the tightening effects of the Fed’s recent rate rises. Furthermore, the latest consumer spending numbers together with the anecdotal evidence of the Black Friday weekend sales show that the economy has not yet met the Fed’s requirements of slowing to a rate “well below its longer-run trend”. As such, the Fed has more work to do and we look for further 50bp rate hikes in December and in February, with the potential for tightening needing to go on for longer. Read this article on THINK TagsWages US Payrolls Jobs Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Could NFP save the dollar from a quite long downtrend? Dollar index has been losing since ca. 7 weeks, is correction coming to USD?   In general, we think that the turnaround in the US dollar has been long overdue and that the EUR/USD pair has only recently started moving towards levels we expect it to trend towards. That said, the move has been quite sharp and we’re hesitant to say it has been fully justified. When it comes to Friday’s NFP report, we think that we’re unlikely to see too much volatility around the data, barring a significant deviation from expectations. We think that the Federal Reserve will ease the pace of rate hikes from December, and believe that this week’s NFP data is highly unlikely to get in the way of that. We actually believe that Thursday’s PCE data, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, could be more important in guiding Fed expectations and the dollar. Confirmation of the disinflation signal from the latest CPI report could cement market expectations for the Fed’s dovish pivot. If, on the other hand, core PCE inflation surprises to the upside, this could sow doubt among market participants, opening the way for a correction in the recent move lower in the US dollar.   Read next: If ECB policymakers should make a decision between fighting inflation and avoiding recession, they will likely choose fighting inflation says Ipek Ozkardeskaya| FXMAG.COM

USD/CAD is at a make or a break near the round-levels support of 1.3400. Upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls have failed to provide a cushion to the US Dollar. The Bank of Canada is set to hike its interest rates by 50 bps consecutively for the second time. USD/CAD is expected to deliver more losses on a breakdown of the Ascending Triangle pattern. USD/CAD has witnessed a sheer downside after surrendering the critical support of 1.3442 in the Asian session. The loonie asset has dropped firmly below the round-level support of 1.3400 in the Tokyo session as a significant improvement in risk appetite has impacted the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways after registering a fresh five-month low at 104.14. The USD Index is expected to extend its losses ahead as the risk-on impulse has strengthened dramatically. The US Dollar is facing immense pressure as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is shifting its mindset towards a slow rate hike culture to safeguard the United States economy from financial risks. S&P500 futures are displaying a lackluster performance as investors are awaiting the release of US ISM Services PMI data for fresh impetus. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields have recovered firmly to near 3.53% on upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Also, hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve policymaker about interest rate peak has weakened US Treasury bonds. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Friday, "We are probably going to have a slightly higher peak to Fed policy rate even as we slow pace of rate hikes," reported Reuters. Upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls failed to provide cushion to the US Dollar Markets participants were expecting that only better-than-projected US labor market data could add life to the US Dollar. The Greenback has been facing immense pressure from investors after Federal Reserve policymakers started sounding ‘less hawkish’ on interest rate guidance. On the labor front, the United States economy added 261K fresh jobs against the projections of 200K. The jobless rate remained unchanged at 3.7%. The catalyst that could support the US Dollar ahead is the improvement in Average earnings data. The labor cost index has improved to 5.1%. Robust labor demand along with higher wage rates possess the capability of accelerating inflation as higher wages would force households to more spending on durables. This could refresh troubles for Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Recovery in oil prices and upbeat Canadian employment data supported the Canadian Dollar The Canadian Dollar has been supported by a recovery in oil prices and better-than-projected payroll data.  Oil prices recovered sharply amid multiple tailwinds. Easing lockdown curbs in China and upbeats US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data strengthened global economic projections. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading oil exporter to the United States economy and solid oil prices support the Canadian Dollar.   The Canadian economy added 10.1K jobs in November vs. the projections of 5K. Also, the Unemployment Rate has eased to 5.1% against the projections of 5.3%. This is going to delight the Bank of Canada (BOC) to announce a higher rate hike in its mission of bringing price stability. Bank of Canada is set to hike interest rates further Canada’s inflation rate remained unchanged in October at 6.9%, which indicates that the Bank of Canada is required to continue its policy tightening measures further to curtail inflationary pressures. In October’s monetary policy, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem hiked interest rates by 50 basis points (bps). As per the estimates from CIBC, the Canada central bank will continue its 50 bps rate hike regime. Analysts at CIBC point out that the Bank of Canada will increase rates by 50 bps on Wednesday, before pausing in 2023. A 50 bps rate hike by the Bank of Canada will accelerate the interest rate to 4.25%. This is going to widen the BOC-Fed policy divergence, which is impacting the Loonie asset for now. USD/CAD technical outlook USD/CAD is at a make or a break near the edge of the upward-sloping trendline of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern on a four-hour scale. The upward-sloping trendline of the chart pattern is placed from November 16 low at 1.3228 while the horizontal resistance is plotted from November 10 high at 1.3571. The Loonie asset has dropped below the 50-and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.3436 and 1.3459 respectively, which indicates that the short-term and long-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is hovering around 40.00.  A breakdown of the same will trigger a bearish momentum.     search   g_translate    

Thus, the market may currently be at the beginning of the first part of a major bearish trend. It is assumed that the bears form a triple zigzag pattern Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ. It seems that the sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ have already been completed. In the near future, the price is expected to continue falling in the primary wave Ⓩ. Its end is possible near 101.59. At that level, it will be at 76.4% of wave Ⓨ. Let's consider an alternative option in which the formation of a cycle triple zigzag will continue. Most likely, we see a zigzag price movement in the wave z. The wave z may take the form of a zigzag Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ, where the first impulse Ⓐ and the correction Ⓑ in the form of an intermediate double zigzag are already completed. The entire wave z can complete its pattern near 116.21 level. At that level, it will be at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of wave y. The first sub-wave (1), which is part of the primary wave Ⓒ, is likely to reach the level of 107.22, marked by a minute correction.

Stocks fell and the US dollar strengthened on Monday.   One of the reasons that could have triggered the move was a stronger-than-expected ISM services read in the US, which came in above expectations, and hinted that the economic activity, at least in the US services sector continues growing, and growing un-ideally faster-than-expected despite the Federal Reserve's (Fed) efforts to cool it down.   So, the economic data may have fueled the Fed hawks yesterday, although I just want to note that another data, which is PMI services remained comfortably in the contraction zone at around 46.   In the short run, the S&P500 may have seen a top near 4100 But the fact that the S&P500 was flirting with critical yearly resistance may have played a bigger role in yesterday's selloff.   The S&P500 shortly traded above the year-to-date bearish channel top last week without a solid reason to do so. The pricing in the markets barely reflects the scenario that the US rates will go above the 5% mark. Therefore, a downside correction was necessary to reflect the reality of the Fed game. Read next: Vodafone Shares Fell By 45%, Apple May Be Moving Production Outside Of China | FXMAG.COM Some people say that it's because the market sees the Fed's bluff. But at the end of the day, if Fed's bluff of tighter policy doesn't do the job, then the Fed will have to do the job itself.   In the short run, the S&P500 may have seen a top near 4100 and could opt for a further downside correction, with the first bearish target set at 3956, the minor 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on the latest rally, then to around 3870, the major 38.2% retracement level and which should distinguish between a short-term bearish reversal, and the continuation of the latest bear market rally.   It is possible we will see the EURUSD recover to 1.10 and Cable to 1.30 within the next 3 to 6 months Looking at the FX, the Aussie was slightly better bid after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its rates by another 25bp today, and took the rates to levels last seen a decade ago.   Elsewhere, the US dollar strengthened as a result of the hawkish Fed rectification. The dollar index first eased to a fresh low since June, then rebounded. It has way to recover above its 200-DMA, which hints that some majors, including EURUSD and Cable could return below their 200-DMA as well.   Yet, even if we see rebounds in the US dollar, the medium to long term direction of the dollar will likely be the south in the coming months.   Read next: The reduction of fears related to a possible frosty winter may support the euro exchange rate | FXMAG.COM The currency markets are not like the equity markets, or the cryptocurrency markets. The valuation of one currency cannot go to the moon, forever. Therefore, it is possible we will see the EURUSD recover to 1.10 and Cable to 1.30 within the next 3 to 6 months.   Even the Japanese yen, which has been the black sheep of the year, is expected to do much better in the coming months.   Analysts at Barclays and Nomura expect the yen to rally more than 7% next year - which is not a big deal if you think that the US dollar gained up to 30% against the yen since the beginning of this year.   Vontobel sees the yen's fair value below the 100 level against the US dollar, which, on the other hand, is a bit stretched as the dollar-yen hasn't seen that level since 2016, and it was a short visit. The last time the dollar-yen was really below 100 is before 2013.   What's more realistic is, we see the dollar-yen trend slowly lower. In the short-run, resistance at 140 should keep the pair within the bearish trend with the next downside target set at 130.

USD/CAD struggles for a firm intraday direction and remains confined in a range on Tuesday. A modest uptick in crude oil prices underpins the Loonie and acts as a headwind for the pair. The downside remains cushioned amid the emergence of some buying around the US Dollar. The USD/CAD pair oscillates in a narrow band on Tuesday and consolidates the overnight strong rally of around 220 pips from sub-1.3400 levels. The pair holds steady near a one-week high through the early European session, with bulls now awaiting a sustained strength beyond the 1.3600 round-figure mark. Crude oil prices edge high and recover a part of the previous day's slump of nearly 6.5% amid hopes for a recovery in fuel demand amid the easing of COVID-19 curbs in China. This, in turn, underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying, bolstered by bets that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates more than projected. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the US Service PMI unexpectedly increased to 56.5 in November from 54.4 in the previous month. This comes on the back of the upbeat US monthly jobs report released on Friday and suggests that the economy remained resilient despite rising borrowing costs. The incoming strong US macro data validates Fed Chair Jerome Powell's forecast that the peak interest rate will be higher than expected. The mixed fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets around the USD/CAD pair. Traders might also prefer to move to the sidelines and await the latest monetary policy update by the Bank of Canada (BoC) on Wednesday. In the meantime, traders on Tuesday might take cues from the release of Trade Balance data from the US and Canada. Apart from this, the USD and oil price dynamics should provide some impetus.

Elevated inflation, robust economic activity and a super-tight jobs market argue for another 50bp rate hike. However, recession fears are rising and policy is in restrictive territory, meaning that the top in rates looks close. Markets are pricing in only 32bp at the moment, so a 50bp would likely send CAD higher, but the FX reaction should be short-lived. The Bank of Canada hiked rates by 100bp in July with more expected by year-end A very close call The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates a cumulative 350bp since the first move in early March and we look for a further 50bp hike on Wednesday. 3Q GDP came in at 2.9% annualized, nearly double the consensus forecast rate, while inflation at 6.9% continues to run at more than three times the 2% target. Then we had last Friday’s 108,300 increase in Canadian employment, meaning that there are now 523,000 more Canadians in work than there were before the pandemic struck in February 2020. Inflation is lower in Canada than in the US Source: Refinitiv, ING   At its latest meeting the BoC acknowledged that some effects of tighter policy were being seen, citing softer housing while weak external demand is also impacting the Canadian economy. But with demand continuing to outstrip the economy’s supply capacity, inflation pressures show little sign of softening as quickly as the Bank of Canada would like. They also warned that “price pressures remain broadly based, with two-thirds of CPI components increasing more than 5% over the past year”. That story has not changed and with central banks globally warning that the risk of doing too little to fight inflation outweighs the risk of doing too much the BoC are likely to signal further tightening remains possible.   For now we expect a final 25bp rate hike in early 2023, but this is not a strong call. The housing market is particularly vulnerable, with the mortgage market structure meaning Canadians are more impacted by rising rates than American home owners. We are also seeing signs in Europe and the US that inflation is showing more signs of softening and if replicated in Canada this may argue against that final hike. FX: Not many long-term implications for CAD Markets are pricing in only 32bp for tomorrow’s BoC announcement, so a 50bp rate hike would be received as a hawkish surprise and likely trigger a CAD rally. However, we expect the post-meeting FX impact to be rather short-lived, as external factors remain more important for CAD. The recent fragility in risk sentiment shows that downside risks for all high-beta currencies remain elevated. At the same time, CAD is considerably less directly exposed to swings in China’s sentiment compared to many other pro-cyclical currencies. The tightening supply picture in the crude market does leave room for a recovery in prices and this should be a positive development for the loonie. We think USD/CAD could end the year around 1.37 as the USD strengthening is partly offset by a potential recovery in oil prices.  Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The USD/JPY pair plummeted in November, which made many question its bullish potential. However, the dollar's recent growth convinces investors otherwise. So what to expect from the major? The dollar is winning so far The greenback rose 0.3% against its major peers on Wednesday night. The dollar was supported by rising concerns about the global recession. The day before, three leading U.S. banks - J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and The Bank of America - said they expect a slowdown in global economic growth next year, as rising inflation is threatening consumer demand. The pessimistic outlook reinforced the anti-risk sentiment that prevailed for the third consecutive session. The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks stock market performance in 48 countries, fell 1.26%, down from a three-month high last week. The loss of appetite for equities and increased demand for the dollar was also triggered by strong US macrodata. Recall that earlier this week the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that economic activity in the services sector grew from 54.4 to 56.5 in November. The data followed Friday's report from the U.S. labor market, which also pleased dollar bulls. The nation's NonFarm Payroll employment rose more than forecast last month. The portion of optimistic data greatly strengthened the market's hawkish expectations for further monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Currently, most traders expect the U.S. central bank to raise the rate by 50 bps next week. The probability of an increase by 75 bps is only 5%. However, talk of a higher peak in U.S. interest rates has returned to the market. Many investors believe the rate could reach 5.25% in 2023, whereas now it is in the 3.75-4% range. The hope that the Fed will continue to raise rates next year and keep them high for a long time acts as a very powerful trigger for the dollar at this point. This factor particularly helps the greenback against the yen. After USD/JPY plummeted to a 3-month low of 133.64 last week, it has now gained 3% and has managed to stay above 137. There aren't many new factors that can strongly influence the asset's dynamics now. In the coming days, investors will focus on two events: the US consumer price index for November and next week's Fed meeting. If investors see more robust inflation and hear hints of a higher peak in U.S. interest rates from U.S. officials, it will likely trigger a new wave of growth in the USD/JPY pair. What's in store for the USD/JPY next year? In November, the U.S. currency posted its worst monthly performance in 14 years against the yen. It fell by more than 7% due to fears that the US central bank is going to slow the pace of rate hikes. However, most currency strategists, recently surveyed by Reuters, believe that in the next few months, USD/JPY will be able to hold its annual growth, which amounted to 20%. The growing threat of recession in the U.S. and other countries should provide support to the dollar. In the backdrop of risk aversion, the greenback will once again feel a surge of strength, which will help it recover its recent losses on all fronts, even against the yen. "For now, the forces that have supported the USD this year remain valid, despite the recent correction lower. Other currencies do not look as attractive yet," said Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of G10 FX strategy at Bank of America. In the BofA baseline, the U.S. dollar will remain strong early next year and will only start a more sustained downward path after the Fed pauses. Despite the dollar's recent pullback, major currencies are not expected to recoup their 2022 losses against the USD until at least late 2023, the survey showed. Analysts estimate that the Japanese yen, down nearly 20% for the year and currently trading around 136.50 per dollar, was expected to change hands around 139.17, 136.17 and 132.67 per dollar over the next three, six and 12 months respectively.   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/329168

Yesterday, several major CEOs gave interviews to financial media in the context of a couple of major investor conferences. Their comments left a sour note for the markets, and tech stocks led a move lower in US equities which fed over into the Asian and European stocks. Aside from the less than optimistic outlook, it underscored a brewing debate about the Fed. The results of that debate could be the difference between a mild (or no) recession, and an economic "hurricane". First, the disappointing news What captured most of the attention were comments from Walmart's CEO and the CEO of JPMorgan. The latter has been quite a bit more outspoken about worries of a pending recession. In fact, the "economic hurricane" phrasing was his invention. The issue is that several CEOs echoed a sentiment: that consumer demand was slowing. Read next: The Australian Dollar Failed To Hold Its Gains, The Pound Strengthened Against The US Dollar| FXMAG.COM Walmart was seeing a trend where consumers were being more conservative in their buying habits, focusing on household essentials and holding back from things like electronics. This dovetailed with the CEO of Union Pacific, who said that shipping volumes were down.   Still good, but for how long? Jamie Dimon, as the CEO of one of the largest consumer banks in the US, would have some insight into how his customers were spending their money. He pointed to spending this year being 10% higher than last year. Which sounds good, but inflation has to be factored into that. He also pointed out that savings that people had accumulated during the pandemic and thanks to the stimulus were running out, and that might mean further credit crunch in the first half of next year. Read next: Unconventional Measures Taken By Musk In Managing Twitter| FXMAG.COM This is where the discrepancy starts to show: What will the Fed do. For now, the Fed is raising rates to stave off inflation, and are expected to level out at around 5.0%. This makes borrowing costs significantly higher, which would make buying things with credit cards, or taking out loans, much more difficult.   History won't repeat itself? In the past, the Fed has hiked rates right up until there was an economic downturn, and then quickly cut in order to support the economy. Particularly to support the jobs market, which is their second mandate. But Dimon is warning this might not be the case this time, as inflation remains elevated, the Fed might be much more concerned with restoring monetary stability. This would make the recession harder, since there wouldn't be the sudden influx of cheaper credit that happened with previous recessions. The relative strength in the jobs market contributes to that view. Even if the economy slips into contraction, with over 10 million job openings, it could be some time before the unemployment rate starts to tick up. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, and that lag might be even more extended this time around. Which could mean that the more rosy expectations of a quick "pivot" by the Fed next year might not play out.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada announced the results of its final meeting this year. The Canadian central bank has raised its overnight rate by 50 basis points, lamented the high rate of inflation and praised the national economy's growth dynamics in the third quarter. However, despite such unipolar signals, the Canadian dollar did not benefit from the December meeting. On the contrary, the loonie weakened noticeably against the greenback: the USD/CAD pair reached its monthly high at 1.3650. What were the bulls unhappy with? In fact, it's a rare case, when the rally is not caused by strengthening of the greenback - in this case, the loonie is just getting weaker. The US dollar index is still under pressure (ahead of the December FOMC meeting), so the uptrend of USD/CAD only happened because the loonie's pessimistic. As is often the case, "the devil is in the details". For example, behind the loud statement that inflation in Canada is still unacceptably high is an inherently contradictory clarification. The central bank pointed out that three-month rates of change in core inflation have come down - and according to central bank economists, this is "an early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum." This means that the central bank saw in the latest releases the first signs of slowing inflationary growth, with all the ensuing consequences. Recall that the core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy prices), on an annualized basis, fell to 5.8% in Canada from the previous 6%. Most experts had expected an increase to 6.3% instead of a decline. However, perhaps in other circumstances market participants would have ignored the central bank's remark about the slowdown in inflation growth. But this thesis was voiced in conjunction with another message, the essence of which boils down to the readiness of the Canadian central bank to suspend the process of tightening monetary policy. On the one hand, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that they will maintain a hawkish course, given the high level of inflation in the country. But on the other hand, the text of the Bank of Canada's accompanying statement voiced the opposite signals. To be more precise, in the published statement the probability of further tightening of the monetary policy is already in question. The document states that the Governing Council "continues to assess how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding." I suppose that the wording was the direct reason why the Canadian dollar weakened in the whole market. After all, this is not the first time the message has been voiced recently. In particular, the deputy head of the Canadian Central Bank Carolyn Rogers announced recently that the end of the tightening cycle of the monetary policy is "already near". And Macklem himself has repeatedly gestured that the central bank is "approaching the end of its rate hike campaign". Therefore, the wording of the final communique became a kind of "quintessence" of rhetoric of the Bank of Canada representatives. By the way, the 50-point rate hike in this context should not be considered as a hawkish factor. Do recall that some analysts (in particular, RBC Capital Markets) before the meeting said that the Canadian central bank can slow down the rate hike to 25 points, acting, so to speak, "quietly" in the beginning of 2023. But the central bank, on the one hand, decided to keep the 50-point pace, but on the other hand, de facto allowed a pause in the rate hike. Such a strategy was interpreted by the market as a factor that is not in favor of the loonie, due to which the Canadian currency plunged throughout the market. Bulls need to overcome the resistance level of 1.3690 (in this price point, the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator coincides with the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the D1 timeframe) in order to develop an uptrend. The Bank of Canada did not become an ally for the loonie, but now it is important that the Fed does not become an "enemy" of the greenback. In other words - prospects of developing the uptrend now depend on the Federal Reserve. We can suppose that the results of the December meeting of the Bank of Canada will allow the bulls to test the resistance level of 1.3690, and probably, the area of the 37th figure. But the bulls need the support of the US central bank for a large-scale (and most importantly, stable) bullish attack. Thus, taking into account forthcoming events in the US (release of the data on inflation growth in the US and the Fed's December meeting), it is impossible to speak about bullish prospects for USD/CAD now. In the current conditions, "safe longs" should be in the range of 1.3690-1.3700. The nearest support level is 1.3550 (average Bollinger Bands line on H4 and Tenkan-sen line on D1).   Relevance up to 00:00 2022-12-09 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/329237

The market had been split as to whether the Bank of Canada would hike interest rates by 25bp or 50bp. Strong growth, a tight jobs market and elevated inflation led it to opt for the larger move, but having previously suggested ongoing tightening, the bank is now saying it is merely 'considering' whether additional hikes will be required 4.25% Canada's overnight interest rate   BoC goes for a more aggressive 50bp hike So we got a 50bp hike from the Bank of Canada – in line with our view, but the market had been more cautious, pricing in only around 33bp ahead of the decision. The accompanying statement acknowledges that growth is "proving more resilient than was expected" with Canada's labour market remaining "tight" and the economy "continuing to operate in excess demand". Nonetheless, there is "growing evidence that tighter monetary policy is restraining domestic demand", citing softer consumer spending growth and a weakening housing market. The bank is expecting that "growth will essentially stall through the end of this year and the first half of next year". As for inflation, it is "still too high", but there are early indications that "price pressures may be losing momentum". Central bank policy interest rates (%) Source: Macrobond, ING A dovish shift suggests further hikes are no longer the default position As for the outlook, the central bank has hinted that we are now very close to the end of the tightening cycle with the Governing Council "considering whether the policy rate needs to rise further". At the last meeting in October, BoC said "the Governing Council expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further" – so this is a dovish shift. We have been pencilling in a final 25bp hike early next year for quite some time. The next meeting is 25 January and such a move would take the policy rate to 4.5%. However, the housing market is looking particularly vulnerable, with the mortgage market structure meaning Canadians are more impacted by rising rates than American homeowners, given shorter periods of fixed mortgage rates. The global growth story is weakening, as underlined by today's Chinese trade data, and we are seeing signs in Europe and the US that inflation is moderating. If replicated in Canada, this would argue against that final hike. We will keep that last 25bp in for now but it is a low-conviction call. Read next: Unconventional Measures Taken By Musk In Managing Twitter| FXMAG.COM FX: Bigger hike doesn't mean stronger CAD Despite the larger-than-expected rate hike, USD/CAD has struggled to move below 1.3600, which is due to a) the more dovish tone in the statement around the future path of rate increases; and b) an external environment that remains largely unsupportive for CAD. On the second point, crude prices below $80/bll are undoubtedly weighing on the loonie, especially since they have been accompanied by consecutive days of deteriorating risk sentiment. The silver lining for CAD from the BoC dovish tilt is that there could be a lower probability of a disorderly fall in house prices, which was a key tail risk for CAD next year. We expect a stabilisation in USD/CAD into year-end, but upside risks should continue to prevail unless oil prices rebound. Looking at next year, we continue to favour the loonie over other pro-cyclical currencies, given more limited exposure to China and Europe’s economic woes. Read this article on THINK TagsIntrest rates Canada CAD BoC Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

USD/CAD pulls back from intraday high to pare daily gains. Weekly support line holds the key for bear’s entry. Buyers need validation from November’s peak to keep the reins. USD/CAD registers another failure to cross the one-month-old resistance line as it drops to 1.3655 amid the initial hour of Thursday’s European trading session. The Loonie pair’s latest declines also take clues from the impending bear cross on the MACD, as well as RSI (14) pullback from the overbought territory. Although the intraday bears are having an upper hand by the press time, an upward-sloping support line from Monday, close to 1.3650, restricts the USD/CAD pair’s immediate downside. Following that, a southward trajectory towards the 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA) level surrounding 1.3480 can’t be ruled out. However, a three-week-old ascending trend line near 1.3420 appears crucial for the USD/CAD seller’s further dominance as a break of which won’t hesitate to poke the previous monthly low of 1.3226. Alternatively, an upside clearance of the monthly resistance line near 1.3685 will need validation from the 1.3700 threshold and November’s peak of 1.3808 to convince the USD/CAD bulls. In that case, the 1.3855-60 and the 1.3900 level could also probe the Loonie pair’s further upside before highlighting the 1.4000 psychological magnet. USD/CAD: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected

Stocks fell for a fifth day, but the sovereign bonds gained, a hint that the market catalyzer shifted from the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing – where stocks and bonds fall at the same time, to recession fears, where stocks remain under pressure, while investors seek refuge in safer sovereign assets. Yields and USD The falling yields kept the US dollar under pressure below the critical 200-DMA, which stands at 105.75. American crude oil One big move of the day was oil. The barrel of American crude slipped below the $73 floor and fell to $71.70 on the back of rising recession fears. Oil And note that we have started seeing a structural change in the oil markets. Crude price curve was in backwardation up until a month ago. But over the past weeks we started seeing the front-end of the price curve falling and even going back to contango. I discuss in this episode what that means for oil prices. Gold Elsewhere, news that China increased its bullion reserves for the first time in three years have a boost to gold and silver. The mint ratio fell below 80, but gold could still be a better choice for those preparing their portfolios for recession. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 Markets price in recession 2:36 Oil slips below $72pb 3:57 Is contango coming & what does it mean? 6:25 Loonie to remain under the pressure of weaker oil 8:00 Gold or silver?! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Crude #oil #contango #backwardation #energy #crisis #recession #fear #market #selloff #USD #EUR #Gold #silver #mint #ratio #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

In today's Orbex Analysis Jing Ren talks Forex pairs - greenback versus yen, Loonie and WTI crude oil. USDJPY recoups some losses The Japanese yen rallies over better-than-expected GDP in Q3. The pair has found solid support at 134.20 near August’s lows. The latest rally is likely to be driven by sellers’ profit-taking, which means that it would be too soon to talk about a full-fledged recovery. 138.80 on the 20-day moving average is the first obstacle, and the bulls will need to clear the daily resistance at 141.50 before they could turn sentiment around. 136.00 is the first level to gauge the strength of buying interest in case of a pullback. USDCAD tests resistance The Canadian dollar struggles as the lack of forward guidance by the BoC hints at slower tightening. A break above the previous peak at 1.3640 has put the bears on the defensive. The RSI’s multiple entries in the overbought area showed exhaustion and led to a pullback as the price tested the support-turned-resistance of 1.3700. A breakout could pave the way for a bullish continuation above the November high of 1.3800. On the downside, 1.3580 is the closest support and 1.3400 a critical level to keep the recovery intact. Read next: BMW Was Fined 30,000 Pounds By CMA, Google Wants To Become More Productive| FXMAG.COM USOIL sees limited bounce WTI crude dips on an unexpected rise of US fuel stocks. A close below the previous low of 73.70 shows that the path of least resistance remains down. More traders may look to sell into strength as the commodity struggles to claw back losses. The RSI’s oversold condition may cause a limited rebound. Offers could be expected around the former support of 78.00. 82.50 is a major cap that is likely to keep the price under. A new round of selling would send the price to a 12-month low and at the psychological level of 70.00.

Bank of Canada surprises with 50 bp hike The Bank of Canada delivered a second straight 50-bp hike on Wednesday, which brought the cash rate to 4.25%. The markets had been split on whether the BoC would raise by 50 bp or 25 bp, pricing in 33 bp ahead of the decision. The move didn’t have an effect on the Canadian dollar, which closed the day unchanged. The BoC decided on the larger rate move due to strong growth, a tight labour market and high inflation. The rate statement noted that inflation is “still too high” but added that core inflation has been falling, which may indicate that inflationary pressures are “losing momentum.” What’s next for the BoC? The rate statement contained a significant hint that the Bank may be close to winding up the current tightening cycle, stating that the BoC was “considering whether the policy rate needs to rise further”. This was in contrast to the October meeting when the BoC stated it “expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further.” This appears to be a dovish shift, in that additional rate hikes are longer a given. The BoC meets next in late January, and the Bank’s rate decision could again go down to the wire, only this time it will be a choice between a 25 bp increase and a pause. Policy makers have some time to gauge the effect of high rates on the domestic economy and they will also be keeping a close eye on developments in Europe, China and the US. Ahead of next week’s CPI report, the US releases PPI and UoM Inflation Expectations on Friday. There are signs that inflation is weakening, and if this is reflected in Friday’s data, the financial markets could get a boost and the US dollar could lose ground, a scenario we’ve become accustomed to seeing whenever inflation underperforms.   USD/CAD Technical There is weak resistance at 1.3681. The next resistance line is 1.3766 USD/CAD has support at 1.3596 and 1.3484 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stocks fell for a fifth day, but the sovereign bonds gained, a hint that the market catalyzer shifted from the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing – where stocks and bonds fall at the same time, to recession fears, where stocks remain under pressure, while investors seek refuge in safer sovereign assets.   The latest data showed that around $5 billion flowed into US bond ETFs over the past week. Ishares 7–10-year Treasury bond ETF is up by more than 7% since the October dip, up by 3% since the beginning of December and should recover further as investors are expected to return to bonds before they return, sustainably to equities.   The S&P500's latest bear market rally is weakening by the day. The index gave back another, though a slim 0.20% yesterday, and closed near its 100-DMA.   The US 10-year yield slipped below its own 100-DMA for the first time since August – when investors were pricing recession fears remember – although at that time recession fears fed into softer Fed expectations and boosted the stock valuations. Today, it's not the case. The recession fears only increase worries about the future health of the economy, as Fed expectations remain relatively hawkish.   The falling yields kept the US dollar under pressure below the critical 200-DMA, which stands at 105.75.   The EURUSD hovers around the 1.05 mark following the dollar's waltz, while Cable is holding on to its gains above the 200-DMA, near 1.2125, but remains perfectly at the mercy of the next move from the greenback.  Oil's dive  One big move of the day is oil. The barrel of American crude slipped below the $73 floor and fell to $71.70 on the back of rising recession fears.   The fact that the Europeans revised their Q3 GDP higher, that Germany revealed a weaker-than-expected contraction in industrial production, that the Chinese continue relaxing Covid measures, and that the Chinese central bank promised to keep financial conditions soft enough to boost economic growth – and reverse the economic disaster, did nothing to improve the mood. The latest news and data remained fully in the shadow of a sharp 8.7% fall in Chinese exports in November released yesterday. The US crude oil inventories fell more than 5 mio barrels last week, but the gasoline inventories rose more than 5 mio barrels, making the data difficult to give direction.   Read next: BMW Was Fined 30,000 Pounds By CMA, Google Wants To Become More Productive| FXMAG.COM But note that we have started seeing a structural change in the oil markets. Crude price curve was in backwardation up until a month ago. But over the past weeks we started seeing the front-end of the price curve falling and even going back to contango. That means that immediate demand for oil is weakening due to recession fears, and that we may not see a soft landing in the US economy, even less in the world economy next year. The latter could further weigh on crude prices, and we could see the price of a barrel slip below $70 before the year-end.   The 'only' good news...  The softening US dollar gives other pairs space to breathe. This is perhaps why we see the European companies posting mild losses. The German Dax index lost only about 2% since it peaked early December, whereas the S&P500 lost the double that amount, a bit more than 4%.   And if the softer dollar helped some majors like euro and sterling keep their head above water, the USDCAD advanced to 1.37 yesterday, even after the Bank of Canada (BoC) decided to go ahead with a 50bp hike, instead of 25bp, but didn't say that there will be more rate hikes – an absence which has been interpreted as 'maybe there will be no more hikes'.   Of course, the sharp drop in oil prices does impact Loonie negatively as there is a clear positive correlation between oil prices and the Canadian dollar. Therefore, if crude oil continues its journey south, there is little to prevent the USDCAD to advance past the 1.38 level. The only thing that could slow down the Loonie's fall, is the dollar's global depreciation. Otherwise, the year-end outlook for the Loonie looks rather bearish.    If all this is not depressing enough...  Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the nuclear threat is rising and didn't say he wouldn't use a nuclear weapon to defend itself, giving a fresh boost to geopolitical tensions.   Gold may have benefited from rising safe haven flows – although the US dollar remains the ultimate safe haven if you fear a further escalation of military tensions with Russia.   Read next: The Euro Benefited From The Weakening Of The US Dollar, A Potential Downside Risk For The Australian Dollar Over The Next Few Weeks| FXMAG.COM What also made gold and silver shine yesterday – besides from the softer US dollar - was news that China increased its bullion reserves for the first time in three years, in an effort to diversify away from the US dollar. The price of an ounce rebounded to $1790. In this short run, gold bulls will likely see further resistance above the 200-DMA, and the $1800 psychological resistance. But the weakening US dollar outlook strengthens appetite for gold in the medium run. There is potential for around $100 rise to $1880, May peak.

Summary:  In today’s five minute video we bring you up to speed with what traders and investors in Australia at Saxo, have been doing this week. It reflects the two major drives of markets, higher for longer interest rates in US and a potential recession. On the other side, some clients are somewhat excited about China’s major cities easing restrictions, and dangling the carrot to ease further. We explore if upside is sustainable in metals, such as iron ore and why buying is picking up in the US dollar, with the USD index seeing its strongest gain in 12 weeks.   Investors and traders are bunkering into the theme of higher for longer interest rates in the US, and a potential recession This is the major theme that's driving markets and pushed global equities lowers this week. So we’ve been seeing profit taking, a little more selling and options put on tech companies, including Tesla, Google, and Apple  - more so than the last few weeks. And buying of the US dollar picked up again; with the DXY set for its biggest gain in 12 weeks, ahead of US CPI next week and the final Fed decision for 2022. There is pent up investor demand for investing in China’s reopening theme This is the second major driver of markets of late. It comes as five major cities have eased restrictions and dangled the carrot to ease further. As well as potentially scrapping mask wearing.  Commodities buying picked up on the platform at Saxo, given there are hopes for China to fast track economic growth next year. Buying in lithium stocks;  Pilbara Minerals, Allkem picked up  Buying in Fortescue Metals also picked up. This is because the commodity Fortescue makes 90% of its revenue from, iron ore (SCOA) the key steel making ingredient, rose 3.6% this week, taking its gain from the October low to 44%, with the price of the iron ore hitting $110.20, a new four month high. The price of iron ore has been rallying as China is easing restrictions and today the market heard whispers that Chinese property developers will get more support, which would support demand for iron ore rising. However it looks like buying volume in iron ore slowed for now. So perhaps until we see more concrete announcements or further easing of restrictions, iron ore and iron ore miners could maybe see a bit of profit or buying fade next week, especially as iron ore stocks were this weeks best performers. Once we get more hopes, the iron ore price might be supported higher along with upside in iron ore majors shares; Fortescue Metals, Champion Iron, BHP and Rio. Also, next week, iron ore majors may see share price upgrades from buy and sell side brokers. Buying in China Tech picked up;  given there are favourable interest rates in China, pent up demand, and restriction are easing. As such buying in Alibaba picked up.  In energy markets, buying in coal stocks picked up; with Whitehaven Coal buy orders rising.  And lastly, buying in airlines shares picked up as well. Especially in those air companies that travel in and out of Hong Kong, Such as Cathay Pacific. Qantas also saw increased buys.     For a weekly look at what to watch in markets - tune into our Spotlight.For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Video: What traders and investors have been buying amid recession concerns versus China easing restrictions | Saxo Group (home.saxo)      

USD/CAD fades bounce off intraday low, struggles to reject two-day downtrend. Multiple hurdles to the north join downbeat RSI conditions to challenge bulls. Sellers have comparatively smoother roads to travel on breaking 1.3560. USD/CAD retreats to 1.3588 as bulls struggle to defend the first daily gains in three heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair justifies downbeat RSI (14), as well as failures to cross the near-term key hurdles, in teasing the bears. That said, the latest lows surrounding 1.3560 holds the key for the USD/CAD seller’s entry, a break of which could quickly drag the quote towards the December 02 swing high near 1.3520. Following that, the 1.3500 round figure may act as an intermediate halt before highlighting the two-week-old support line, close to 1.3435 at the latest, for the pair bears. In a case where USD/CAD bears dominate past 1.3435, the odds of witnessing a fresh monthly low, currently around 1.3385, can’t be ruled out. On the flip side, a one-week-old horizontal resistance area near 1.3600 restricts the immediate upside of the USD/CAD pair. Also acting as the key barrier for the pair buyers is the 1.3640-45 area that encompasses multiple levels marked since November 29. Overall, USD/CAD remains pressured unless the quote successfully breaks the 1.3645 hurdle. USD/CAD: Hourly chart Trend: Further downside expected

A 50bp hike is widely expected given high inflation and a tight jobs market, but the market is pricing in a recession, and falling Treasury yields and a weakening dollar are undermining the Fed’s efforts to dampen price pressures. A hawkish Fed message will likely fall on deaf ears unless the data start proving the central bank right US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell 50bp Expected Federal Reserve interest rate hike   A step down to a higher peak A 50bp hike at the 14 December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is the strong call from both financial markets and economists. After implementing 375bp of rate hikes since March, including consecutive 75bp moves at the previous four meetings, Federal Reserve officials are of the view that they’ve made “substantial progress” on tightening policy so it is time to “step down” to lower increments. Nonetheless, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the team have been at pains to point out that despite smaller individual steps, the “ultimate level of rates will need to be somewhat higher than thought at the time of the September meeting”. Scenarios for the 14 December FOMC meeting Source: ING Signalling could fall on deaf ears In this regard, the Fed will be concerned by the recent steep falls in Treasury yields and the dollar, coupled with a narrowing of credit spreads, which are loosening financial conditions – the exact opposite of what the Fed wants to see as it battles to get inflation lower. These moves were themselves triggered by a weak core CPI print for October that came in at 0.3% month-on-month versus a 0.5% consensus expectation, while the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation – the core personal consumer expenditure deflator – was even softer, rising just 0.2%. The market reaction seems excessive to us given this is just one month of data, annual core inflation is still running at triple the target, and to hit 2% year-on-year the month-on-month readings need to average 0.17% over time – and we aren’t there yet. The Federal Reserve will need to see several months of core inflation readings of 0.1% or 0.2% to be confident that inflation is on its way back to target and this is likely to be a key plank of its messaging. With that in mind, we think the Fed is not finished with its rate hikes and its new forecasts will indeed indicate a higher path for the Fed funds rate to 5% with potential slight upward revisions to near-term GDP, and persistently high inflation forecasts used to justify this. Certainly, the consumer sector has been holding up better than many – including ourselves – expected, with strong jobs and income gains supporting spending. ING's expectation for what the Fed will predict Source: ING, Federal Reserve   Looking further ahead, several officials such as James Bullard and John Williams have suggested the Fed may not be in a position to cut interest rates until 2024, and we suspect Powell and the forecasts will echo this sentiment. However, we strongly suspect that this is more tied to the Fed trying to get longer-dated Treasury yields higher rather than a conviction call that recession and lower inflation over the medium-term will be avoided. Inflation makes things tricky Now, it is important to remember we get November inflation on 13 December – the day before the FOMC meeting – and the outcome will be important for what the Fed has to say. If core CPI comes in at or above the 0.3%MoM consensus forecast, its messaging as outlined above will probably prevail. If inflation is softer and yields tumble further then the Fed may have to be more forceful and perhaps raise the possibility of accelerating a run-down in the size of its balance sheet via reduced reinvestment of proceeds from maturing assets. The central bank will stick with the hawkish messaging until it is confident inflation is beaten. 5% in the first quarter but rate cuts from the third In terms of our view, we look for a final 50bp hike in February, taking the Fed funds ceiling to 5%. But like the market, we think a recession will dampen price pressures and the composition of the US inflation basket, which is heavily weighted to shelter and vehicles, will facilitate a far faster drop in annual inflation readings than elsewhere. Remember too that the Fed has a dual mandate which includes an employment dynamic. This offers the Fed greater flexibility versus other central banks to respond with stimulus and we believe it will from the third quarter of 2023 onwards. Market rates have dropped like a stone – time for the Fed to sell bonds? If the Fed wants to re-tighten financial conditions by enough, it needs to engineer a hawkish hike. Longer dates, in the wake of the recent falls in yields, are trading as if the Fed is done post the December hike. Assuming the Fed is not done, the first quarter of 2023 should sustain a rising rates theme to it. That should force yields back up, commencing a dis-inversion process on a curve that is now heavily inverted. We’ve likely seen the peak in market rates, but that does not prevent market rates from moving higher, at least for as long as the Fed is still hiking and the end-game is not fully clear. The Fed has not said too much about the circumstances on the money markets. We still have in excess of $2tr going back to the Fed on the reverse repo facility, reflecting an excess of liquidity in the system. This in turn is driven there as a counterpart to the volume of bonds still sitting on the Fed’s balance sheet. The Fed is rolling off some $95tr per month, but there is always the option to do more, or more pertinently to sell bonds back to the market outright. While it may be a tad premature to suggest this, it’s an option should the Fed really want to see longer-dated market rates revert higher. FX markets: Short-end rates hold the key for the dollar Dollar price action over the last two months has been very poor. The dollar has tended to sell off sharply on signs of softer price data but has struggled to rally on any positives – such as the November US jobs reports. That price action suggests a market caught long dollars at higher levels after a five-quarter dollar rally. The hope for dollar bulls now is that positioning is much better balanced after an 8% drop in the trade-weighted dollar and a 12% drop in USD/JPY. Preventing an even sharper dollar sell-off has probably been the view that the Fed will continue to hike into 2023. The terminal rate is still priced not far from 5% and only 50bp of rate cuts are priced in the second half of 2023. As long as the FOMC statement, Dot Plots, and press conference do not generate any more dovish pricing – and that seems unlikely – we doubt the dollar has to sell off much further. Our baseline view would see EUR/USD holding around the 1.05 area as the Fed validates the current pricing of its trajectory in money markets. A more dovish turn would be a surprise and with seasonals against the dollar in December, EUR/USD could spike above resistance at 1.06 towards the 1.07 area in thin year-end markets. Our multi-week preference, however, is that the Fed is still going to talk tough, and heading into January the dollar starts to make a comeback – where 4.5%+ deposit rates look increasingly attractive amid a global slowdown. Read this article on THINK TagsUSD US Treasuries Interest rates Federal Reseve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

With the formation of a Bullish Pitchfork channel on the 4-hour chart of the United States USD Index, currently #USDX will try to go to the middle line of the Pitchfork channel or the 105.77 level. If successful, the next level to be tested is the 106.67 area if the momentum and volatility are sufficiently supportive. However, if on its way to the target level previously described, USDX suddenly reverses downwards again, especially breaking below the 104.43 level, then the bull scenario described earlier will automatically become invalid.   Relevance up to 03:00 2022-12-13 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/115521

USD/CAD retreats from intraday high, struggles to defend buyers. WTI bounces off yearly low, snaps six-day downtrend, amid fears of supply crunch. Sour sentiment, anxiety ahead of the key data/events underpin US Dollar. Speech from BOC Governor Maclem can entertain traders ahead of bumper catalysts. USD/CAD consolidates daily gains around 1.3650 heading into Monday’s European session as the Loonie pair traders turn cautious ahead of a speech from Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem. Also challenging the pair buyers could be the recently firmer prices of Canada’s key export item, WTI crude oil. It’s worth noting, however, that the hawkish Fed bets and recession woes keep the US Dollar firmer as traders await Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. WTI crude oil prints mild gains around $71.80 as it bounces off the yearly low while snapping a six-day downtrend. In doing so, the black gold portrays the supply crunch fears as Russian President Vladimir Putin rejects supplying oil to those countries who accept the European Union (EU)-led oil price caps. Also likely to challenge the oil flow could be the shutdown of the key pipeline supply energy benchmark to the US, namely the Keystone pipeline. On Sunday, Canada's TC Energy said it has not yet determined the cause of the Keystone oil pipeline leak last week in the United States, while also not giving a timeline as to when the pipeline will resume operations, reported Reuters. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) extends Friday’s gains amid recession woes, recently highlighted by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. On Friday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) matched the market forecasts of 7.4% YoY for November versus 8.1% prior. Further, the Core PPI rose to 6.2% YoY versus 6.0% expected and 6.7% previous readings. Additionally, preliminary readings of the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 59.1 for December versus 53.3 market forecasts and 56.8 final readings for November. Moreover, the 1-year inflation expectations dropped to 4.6%, the lowest since September 2021 while compared to 4.9% expected whereas 5-10 year expectations were stable at 3.0%. It should be noted that the US ISM Services PMI improved to 56.5 versus 54.4 expected. While portraying the mood, the markets witness a sluggish start to the key week with mildly offered S&P 500 Futures and inactive Treasury yields. To sum up, mixed sentiment and anxiety prior to the crucial data/events can keep the USD/CAD on the front foot even if the latest rebound in oil prices probes the upside moves. It should be noted that the absence of hawkish remarks from BOC’s Macklem could help the Loonie pair to remain firmer as the Canadian central bank has recently ruled out odds of aggressive rate hikes. Technical analysis A daily closing beyond the seven-week-old descending resistance line, around 1.3655, becomes necessary for the USD/CAD bulls to keep the reins. However, the pair bears are off the table unless witnessing a clear downside break of the previous resistance line from October 13, close to 1.3510 at the latest.    

The Fed will start its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, during which the members will recap the past year and make its forecasts for GDP, labor market, employment and interest rates for the coming years. It will be an important and long-running event as it will determine, at least for the first quarter of next year, the bank's overall view of the economy. Tomorrow's release of consumer inflation data in the US will not go unnoticed either as expectations are a 7.3% rise in CPI y/y and 0.3% m/m. But if the figures show a decline, inflationary pressures will ease, which is good for the economy. This may give the Fed a strong reason to reduce the rate hike after Wednesday's 0.50% increase. In the event of such a scenario, a strong rally in stock markets will occur, accompanied by a decline in dollar and Treasury yields. But if the CPI data exceed expectations, demand for equities will dip, while dollar will surge Forecasts for today: USD/JPY The pair remains trading within the range of 135.80-138.00. It will not go out until the release of the US consumer price index. USD/CAD The pair is trading within the range of 1.3535-1.3700. It will not go out until the release of the US consumer price index and the Fed monetary policy meeting.     Relevance up to 07:00 2022-12-14 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/329494

USD/CAD has managed to pick bids above the crucial support of 1.3600. A decline in United States inflation will set the stage for a slowdown in the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The Bank of Canada is ready to hike interest rates further if it fails to see signs of a slowdown in inflation. USD/CAD is expected to display a sheer move as the RSI (14) is hinting at a volatility contraction. USD/CAD has attempted a recovery after dropping marginally below the crucial support of 1.3620 in the early European session. The Lonnie asset is aiming to conquer the immediate resistance of 1.3640 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered sharply as the market mood has turned cautious again ahead of the United States inflation and the outcome of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered sharply after a corrective move below the round-level support of 105.00. The USD Index has accelerated its recovery to near 105.06 and is expected to remain volatile ahead. Investors are confused about whether to underpin the risk-aversion theme as the Federal Reserve is set to hike its interest rate peak guidance in its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday or to support the risk appetite theme due to lower consensus for the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures are displaying a marginal fall in early London after posting solid gains on Monday. The 10-year US Treasury yields are hovering around the critical resistance of 3.60%, displaying obscurity in the market mood. Upbeat US PPI and lower annual inflation expectations trim inflation consensus Market participants have got anxious ahead of the release of the US inflation. Price pressures have remained the talk of the town this year as the sentiment of the households remained dented and the Federal Reserve policymakers remained worried thinking about the consequences of a higher price rise index. A surprise drop in November’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report and one-year consumer inflation expectations is hinting at a slowdown in the current inflation rate. The headline PPI dropped to 7.4% as producers are worried about a decline in consumer spending. While one-year consumer inflation expectations have declined to 5.2% in November from 5.9% in October, marking the biggest one-month decline on record. This has led to a decline in the consensus for headline inflation to 7.4% vs. the former release of 7.7%. While the core CPI is expected to trim to 6.1% against 6.4% reported earlier. Analysts at JP Morgan Chase & Co. have cited that a soft reading in US CPI data could spark a powerful rally in US equities. The 500-stock basket of the United States could rally up to 10% if headline inflation drops to 6.9% or lower, as reported by Bloomberg. Lower inflation to cement a slowdown in Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike pace Mounting inflation pressures have been forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten the interest rate policy despite the accelerating risks of a recession. The agenda of the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has been the achievement of price stability. Signs of deceleration in the inflationary pressures will set the stage for a slowdown in the policy tightening pace by the Federal Reserve. The risk of higher interest rate peak guidance for CY2023 as the inflation rate will remain beyond the targeted rate of 2% for a while. Rabobank analysts said they expect the US central bank to hike the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) and see policymakers revising the terminal rate projection to the neighborhood of 5%. BOC Governor seems on foot to hike rates further if fails to dwindle inflation The speech from Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem on Monday cleared that the Canadian central bank won’t think twice about hiking interest rates further if inflation remains stubborn ahead. While speaking to business leaders in Vancouver, the Bank of Canada Governor said that policy tightening has begun to work but would take time to feed the economy. The present challenge in front of the Bank of Canada is that higher interest rates could push the economy into an unnecessarily painful recession, as reported by Reuters. USD/CAD technical outlook USD/CAD has dropped after facing barricades around the supply zone placed in a narrow range of 1.3690-1.3700 on an hourly scale. On a broader note, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3640 is overlapping with the Loonie asset price, which indicates a sideways auction profile. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates a consolidation ahead till the release of a potential trigger

European equities traded in the red at the start of the week, but equities in the US rebounded as investors are hanging on to hope of slower inflation and reasonably hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) by their fingernails.    Today and tomorrow will tell whether they are right being optimistic or not.   The latest US CPI data will reveal whether inflation in the US eased, and by how much. It's highly likely that we will see a number below the 7.7% printed a month earlier. But a number below 7.7% won't be enough as analysts expected it to ease all the way down to 7.3%.   Last Friday, the PPI figure showed that the US factory gate prices eased in November, but not as much as penciled in – leading to some disappointment among investors. Today, a similar disappointment could erase yesterday's 1.43% rebound in the S&P500 and could easily send the index below its 100-DMA. Read next: Microsoft (MSFT) rose 2.89% after announcing it will purchase a 4% stake in London Stock Exchange Group| FXMAG.COM  But if, by any chance, we see a softer CPI figure, then the S&P500 could easily jump above its 200-DMA, and even above the ytd descending channel top.   But, but, but...  Today's US CPI data, unless there is a huge surprise, will probably not change the Fed's plan to hike the interest rates by 50bp this week. Activity on Fed funds futures gives 77% chance for a 50bp hike, and a slim chance of 23% for another 75bp hike.   What will probably change is where investors see the Fed's terminal rate, and for how long.   More importantly, it will give us an idea on how the market pricing for the Fed's terminal rate will clash with the dot plot projections that will come out tomorrow, and that will, in all cases, hammer any potentially optimistic market sentiment.   Therefore, even if we see a great CPI print and a nice market rally today, it may not extend past the Fed decision on Wednesday.   Energy up.  European stock investors are uncomfortable this week due to the icy cold weather, that will get the countries to tap into the natural gas, and other energy supplies.   The US nat gas prices jumped more than 30% since last week due to a powerful Pacific storm bringing cold and snow to the norther and central plains in the US.   In the UK, power prices hit another ATH yesterday. Read next: An incoming cold spell in the US has seen the cost of US gas surge 27% during the past three trading session while (...) Dutch TTF gas contracts remain below €150| FXMAG.COM   Happily, we haven't seen a significant rise in the European nat gas futures, which in contrary kicked off the week downbeat.   But crude oil rallied as much as 2.60% on Monday as Russia said that the EU's $60 cap on its oil could lead to supply cuts, as Goldman said that Chinese reopening could boost demand by 1mpd - which would mean a $15 recovery in crude's price - and as a key pipeline supplying the US closed following a spill discovered last week.   I think that the oil rebound due to these three factors could be short-lived and may offer interesting top selling opportunities for medium term bears looking for a further dip in oil prices to below $70pb. Because, the Russia is not harmed by $60pb currently, US supplies will be restored and  the Chinese reopening may not be smooth due to potential disruptions in economic activity, because people are sick.   Don't count on strong UK GDP  The British GDP grew more than expected last month and that was mostly due to the rebound in activity after Queen Elizabeth's death slowed activity earlier. But strikes across the country are so severe that they could wipe half a billion pounds off the hospitality industry's pre-Xmas earnings. PM Rishi Sunak thinks that military staff could help cover for striking workers.   Cable consolidates gains below 1.23 but is at the mercy of the US dollar. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hike by 50bp at this week's MPC meeting, but the hike will certainly be accompanied by dovish statement as the UK economy is not strong enough to withstand a Fed-like tightening in the middle of an energy, and cost-of-living crisis.

US inflation has come out below estimates, triggering an initial fall in the Dollar. The Greenback has been fighting back, in fear of a hawkish Fed decision. There are reasons to be optimistic about prices moving forward. Inflation is falling – there is no doubt about it. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) has come out at 0.2% in November, even lower than 0.3% in October. On an annualized basis, November's figure represents 2.5%, far below 6% YoY. Underlying prices are clearly falling. While the knee-jerk reaction was the correct one – stocks jumped and the Dollar fell – the reaction is relatively limited to previous events. Why? The Federal Reserve announces its decision tomorrow. I see this relative Dollar stnregh – EUR/USD jumped 350 pips last time, this time under 100 – as temporary. I expect the Greenback to continue falling, and not only due to these figure, but what is seen beneath. There are reasons to be optimistic. First, headline inflation is set to continue decline as oil prices have come under renewed pressure since the data was compiled. Once falling crude costs reach the pump, America could see another downgrade in prices. Read next: John Hardy (Saxo Bank): I don’t think any single inflation print will unsettle the BoE here, just look at the huge recovery in sterling from the lows | FXMAG.COM When it comes to Core CPI, there are additional reasons to become optimistic. The unsnarling of supply chains have already pushed the prices of core goods down, but there is more in store, especially as the entire world now shifts back to services 0 even China is exiting its draconian policy. Another leg down in cookware, sports equipment and computer chips is still in the pipeline. Another bright spot is the shelter component – or rents. Higher Fed interest rates and rising costs of other things have brought leases down, and these reach official statistics with an even bigger lag. Moving house or renegotiating a contract is an annual ritual at best. Shelter inflation – roughly 40% of CPI – is set to decline. The Fed is aware of these two factors and will be pleased by the data. It takes it into account. The only unnerving part is services-ex-shelter, which is related to wages. That is "sticky" 0 wages do not fall that fast and the data does not provide that much comfort, at least not now. Nevertheless, the fall in other inflationary factors will eventually drag service-sector price rises down. That implies that any recovery in the Dollar may prove temporary. One reason to fade the upmove is the short-term wait for the Fed on Wednesday. Yet beyond the decision, this is probably the Greenback's last stand.

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.15 lows during the New York session on Tuesday before finding bids again. The index is seen to be trading around 103.65 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to push higher from here. Immediate price resistance is at 105.20 as marked on the 4H chart here and a break there confirms the bottom is in place. The US dollar index has further produced a bullish divergence on the 4H RSI as marked here. This could be seen as a potential trend reversal against the recent swing low at 103.15. We need to see a candlestick pattern formation here. The minimum requirement for a three-wave corrective decline from 114.70 has been fulfilled now. If the above scenario is correct and holds well, a strong bullish reversal should be seen from current levels towards 110.00-50 at least. Short-term price support is just below 103.15, while resistance is 105.20. A break higher will add further confidence towards the bullish setup. Prices should be looking higher from current levels. Trading idea: Potential bullish reversal against 102.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 04:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/304808

USD/CAD grinds higher after bouncing off weekly low. Bullish MACD signals, sustained trading beyond convergence of 21-day EMA, one-month-old support line favor buyers. Seven-week-old descending trend line restricts recovery moves ahead of monthly high. USD/CAD remains sidelined around mid-1.3500s, picking up bids to 1.3565 by the press time of early Wednesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Loonie pair defends the early Asian session recovery from the 1.3530 support confluence including the 21-day EMA and a one-month-old ascending trend line. Additionally favoring the upside momentum are the bullish MACD signals. That said, a downward-sloping resistance line from October 21, close to 1.3650 at the latest, restricts the quote’s short-term upside. Following that, the monthly high of 1.3700 will be crucial resistance as it holds the gate for the USD/CAD pair’s run-up toward the previous monthly high surrounding 1.3810. It’s worth noting, however, that multiple hurdles near 1.3850 and 1.3900 could test the bulls past 1.3810. Meanwhile, a daily closing below the 1.3530 support confluence won’t hesitate to challenge the monthly low of 1.3385. Should the USD/CAD bears keep the reins past 1.3385, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of August-October upside, near 1.3350, will precede November’s bottom surrounding 1.3230 to challenge the Loonie pair’s further downside. Also acting as a downside filter is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3200. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected

The latest consumer inflation data in the US indicated a noticeable decline, which caused a strong drop in dollar, an increase in demand for equities and a decline in government bond yields. The report noted that CPI in the US fell from 7.7% to 7.1% y/y in November and decreased from 0.4% to 0.1% m/m. Although this is much lower than expected, the figure really impressed investors, so there was a strong rally ahead of the announcement of the Fed's decision on monetary policy. More importantly, the central bank will also reveal its forecasts for future inflation, GDP and unemployment, which will give investors an indication of how long the rate hike cycle will last and how deep a possible recession could be. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has a speech scheduled, in which he is likely to discuss their assessment of the economy and future plans for monetary policy. So far, markets believe that his statements will be hawkish, but some are expecting a softer one where the Fed will say that it will be ready to stop raising rates sooner rather than later. If things go that way, a rally will be seen in all markets, accompanied by a weaker dollar. Forecasts for today: EUR/USD The pair is currently consolidating below 1.0655. If the Fed says positive statements, it could hit 1.0785. USD/CAD The pair is trading above the level of 1.3520. A rise in oil prices and a decline in dollar could take it to 1.3400.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-12-16 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/329751

Dollar bears have come out of hibernation. After gaining 16% in the first 10 months of the year, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, lost 5% in November. It has since fallen another 1%, reflecting a smaller-than-expected increase in consumer prices in November. Fed ahead In currency markets, the dollar fell again after tumbling against a range of major currencies on Tuesday. The dollar is also facing more headwinds. The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce the scale of future interest rate hikes, which would allow other central banks to close the interest rate gap that attracts investment to the United States. US interest rates, which are the lower bound on both government and corporate bond yields, range from 3.75% to 4%, which is well above rates in other major economies such as the Eurozone where the deposit rate is 1.5%, or Japan, where interest rates are actually negative. Today the Fed will make its last decision of the year. Futures pricing shows markets expect the Fed will slow the pace of hikes. The latest rate hike is expected to raise rates by 50 bp this time. Fed officials say interest rates will go up. They want investors to focus on trajectory, not pace, and are signaling that interest rates could peak above market-expected 4.8% and stay there for most of 2023. If the Fed sticks to the "higher for longer" mantra central banks in Europe, the UK and China will struggle to catch up given the volatile state of their economies. EUR/USD The EUR/USD benefited from the release of inflation data, breaking the level above 1.06. The euro rose by 0.9% yesterday, and the pan-European Stoxx 600 index saw gains of 1.29%. However, the European Central Bank is also getting ready for a 50bps rate hike tomorrow. In Europe, the ECB will announce its latest monetary policy decision tomorrow. Both the Fed and the ECB are expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, keeping the rate differential between them the same, but central banks may differ in their forecasts for the coming months. Differences in the forecasts of the two central banks for the coming months will determine where EUR/USD will trade in the short to medium term. Read next: "Candid Stories" - Instagram like BeReal? Supermarkets Are Doubling The Number Of Their Own Product Lines | FXMAG.COM GBP/USD Yesterday, GBP/USD opened the prospect of a move towards 1.2750 after breaking 1.2300. The pound rose by 0.82% against the dollar yesterday to reach a 6-month high. The upward price movement was due to newly released inflation data from the US. Today, decisions on monetary policy will be announced by the Fed, and on Thursday, next to the ECB, the Bank of England. The Bank of England will have to contend with the biggest drop in living standards in history as the energy crisis, fiscal austerity and lack of growth eat into British household budgets. After positive GDP data on Monday, UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned that the economy could get worse before it got better. While yesterday's employment figures were largely positive, they indicated a slowdown in employment as firms prepare for a tough start to 2023. The Bank of England released its Financial Stability Report yesterday, warning that 2023 will be a tough year for British households due to a combination of falling real incomes, rising mortgage costs and higher unemployment. AUD/USD The Aussie Pair benefited from lower-than-expected US inflation. Yesterday, the pair was trading low in daily levels in the 0.6733-0.6793 range. Today, the quotes are higher above 0.68, oscillating close to the highest levels in three months The lack of events on the Australian market makes the AUD/USD pair dependent on reports and events from America. USD/JPY The Japanese yen held its recent advance to below 136 per dollar. Yesterday, the USD/JPY traded above 137. The decline will occur after the release of US inflation data. The drop took place from the level of 137.2760 to the level of 135.3800. Currently, the pair is trading at a price of 135.0040.   Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com, dailyfx.com

A 50bp hike takes the policy rate to 4.25-4.5%. There is clearly some discomfort at the Federal Reserve that recent declines in Treasury yields and the dollar are undermining its efforts to bring inflation under control. Consequently, it will keep the hikes coming and acknowledge this will mean a 'sustained period' of below-trend growth and job losses Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference on 14 December 2022 4.25-4.5% Target range for the Fed Funds Rate   50bp with a hawkish twist The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise the Fed Funds target rate range by 50bp to 4.25-4.5%, in line with market expectations. The text repeats that officials anticipate that “ongoing increases” in the Fed Funds rate will be “appropriate”, while its forecast update has the central projection being for the Fed funds rate to end 2023 at 5.1% and 4.1% for 2024. They were 4.6% and 3.9% previously. Two consecutive undershoots of inflation have led the market to believe we are getting very close to the peak for interest rates, and rate cuts will soon be on the agenda. The Fed clearly isn’t willing to make that call. Read next: Poland: ING expects GDP deficit in 2022 can reach 4.2%| FXMAG.COM There are some big upward revisions to the central bank's inflation forecasts. Remember the Fed focuses on the core personal consumer expenditure deflator and not the core CPI which was published yesterday. Core CPI is more impacted by used cars and has a different definition of medical care costs, both of with contributed significantly to the downside CPI miss. The core PCE deflator is likely to be stickier than core CPI with the Fed revising up its core PCE estimate to 3.5% for the end of 2023 versus 3.1% previously, with 2024 revised up to 2.5% from 2.3%. The Fed is seemingly predicting only a modest downturn in activity next year with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% from the current level of 3.7% with the economy continuing to expand, albeit at just 0.5% year-on-year between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023. Federal Reserve projections Source: Federal Reserve, ING Another 50bp hike in February – the Fed wants more evidence that inflation is slowing This relative hawkishness likely stems from concern that the recent steep falls in Treasury yields and the dollar are undermining the Fed’s interest rate hikes by loosening financial conditions – the exact opposite of what the Fed wants to see as it battles to get inflation lower. Indeed, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasise that the bank wants financial conditions to “reflect the policy restraint that we’re putting in place”. After all, inflation is indeed still running well above target, the jobs market and wage pressure remain hot, and activity data is pointing to a decent fourth-quarter GDP report after a healthy 2.9% growth rate in the third quarter. While the market may view inflation as being in its death throws, the Fed certainly does not. For the Fed to relax it will want to see substantial evidence that inflation is slowing, not just one or two months where core inflation has come in less than the market was expecting. We must remember that to get inflation to 2% YoY over time we need to see month-on-month readings averaging 0.17% MoM. We are not there yet as the chart below shows – and remember it is the core PCE deflator that the Fed pays the most attention to. Given this situation, we remain happy with our call for a further 50bp rate hike at the 1 February Federal Open Market Committee meeting. US core CPI MoM still tracking above the required 0.17%MoM level Source: Macrobond, ING A pause in the second quarter before cuts in the third Nonetheless, the Fed is raising interest rates at the most rapid pace since the early 1980s and stress is showing up in two key areas. The Conference Board’s measure of US CEO confidence is at its lowest since the depths of the Global Financial Crisis. If CEOs are truly this pessimistic it bodes poorly for corporate profits, job hiring and business Capex. Secondly, the housing market is under real stress with demand falling sharply in response to higher mortgage rates with prices and the number of transactions reversing sharply.  We think the downturn will be more painful than the Fed is currently anticipating and that recessionary forces will dampen price pressures while the composition of the US inflation basket, which is heavily weighted to shelter and vehicles, will facilitate a far faster drop in annual inflation readings than in any other major economy. Historically the Fed has on average only waited six months between the last rate hike in a cycle and the first rate cut. In this regard, the Fed has a dual mandate which includes an employment dynamic on top of price stability. This offers the Fed even greater flexibility versus other central banks which only have an inflation target, to respond with stimulus, and we believe it will from the third quarter of 2023 onwards. Market rates: Under pressure to back off now and test higher in the months ahead Markets need to re-think the sustainability of the bond rally seen in the past month. Nominal and real rates are up, but not by very much. With no sense as of yet that the Fed is done, we continue to call for market rates to move higher. We likely have seen the highs at 4.25%, although our models in fact call for a peak with a 5% handle, and the anomaly here is how big the discount is between the 10yr yield and the likely peak in the funds rate. The 50bp fall in the US 2yr yield between this FOMC and the previous one correlated with a steady ratchet lower in the market discount for the terminal Fed funds rate. This also ratcheted lower the upward pressure on the 10yr yield, which tends to be influenced by where the funds rate peaks. It still leaves us with a conundrum, where the current 10yr yield looks quite low relative to the likely terminal funds rate. If the 10yr stays here, the discount would be in excess of 100bp, which is quite large relative to the past few decades. We think the 10yr can narrow that discount in the coming month or so. Powell had little to say of any materiality on the bond-buying unwind. There had been a small probability attached to the possibility that the Fed could have considered consideration of outright bond selling (as opposed to the less impactful ongoing bond roll-off). The rationale could have been to mute, or even reverse, the significant fall in long-end yields seen in the past month, done with a view to re-tightening financial conditions. In the event, the Committee is not looking into this just yet. It remains an option, however, especially should the Fed require an overall tightening in liquidity circumstances to push in the same direction as the higher rates policy does. The Fed also remains relaxed with the ongoing volumes going back to them on their reverse repo facility. Recently this has ticked back up again towards the $2.2tr area, partly as the US Treasury curbs bills issuance in an effort to smooth the rise into potentially hitting the debt ceiling by mid-2023. But that aside, the bond roll-off programme has done so more than cause the volume of cash going back to the Fed to plateau. The repo market would like to see it fall. But from the Fed’s perspective this is a facility that’s doing its job; mopping up liquidity at 5bp above the funds rate floor. So, no change in the Fed’s tune on this. But 2023 should see these volumes ultimately wind lower, albeit slowly over the course of the year. FX: Fed reality-check can slow the dollar's descent Today’s hawkish hike from the Fed can deliver some support to the free-falling dollar. Heavy losses from early November were built on the Fed declaring the all-clear on inflation and being in a position to cut rates in the second half of 2023. That may be the case, but the Fed is not ready to declare that today. The short-term market reaction of some modest bearish inversion of the US curve should act as a brake on the most recent down leg of the dollar. We had been concerned this week that the short end of the curve was beginning to crumble – which could have seen the dollar sell off a further 2-3%. Instead, the Fed holding onto rate hikes in 1Q23 and to some degree pushing back against the scale of expected easing – 200bp of cuts had been priced in by the end of 2024 – can help the dollar stabilise. It is probably a little dangerous to call EUR/USD back to 1.05 immediately since there is still a small chance the ECB surprises with a 75bp hike tomorrow and the dollar seasonally struggles in December. Yet today’s communications have not fed the dollar bears and we suspect investors will not want to chase the dollar too much lower into year-end. EUR/USD closing back below 1.06 for a couple of days would be the first sign that the rally had lost momentum.  Read this article on THINK TagsUS Recession Powell Interest rates Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

We knew that the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell would not tell investors 'Ho ho ho, inflation is now 7%, we will stop tightening policy and hiking the rates. So, you can buy stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, whatever you find. Merry Xmas!'   No, he was not going to do that, and he did not.   As expected, the Fed raised its interest rates by 50bp to 4.25/4.50% range, the dot plot showed that the Fed officials' median forecast for the peak Fed rate rose to 5.1%.   Plus, the distribution of rate forecasts skewed higher, with 7 officials out of 19 predicting that the rates could rise above 5.25%   Moreover, the inflation forecast for next year was revised higher DESPITE the latest decline in inflation.   And the median rate forecast for 2024 was revised higher to 4.1%.   In summary, the FOMC message was very clear: the Fed is not ready to stop hiking rates - even though they will be hiking by smaller chunks.  Jerome Powell said yesterday that the last two CPI reports were 'a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of inflation', however, 'it will take substantially more evidence to have confidence' that the job is done.   Crystal clear. No pause, no cut, no softening in sight.   Waking up from a dovish dream  US equities woke up from a dovish dream with a cold shower yesterday.   What's interesting is, some investors still wanted to ignore the hawkish Fed comments and buy the dips, because the new Fed trade is no longer about how high the Fed rate will go but 'how soon the Fed will start cutting the rates again'.  But that reasoning has limits, as it ignores the additional pain that the stock markets should endure due to an eventual recession – the trigger for rate cuts expectations - which could trigger a fresh wave of sharp selloff. As a result, the S&P500 closed the session 0.60% lower, and there is a stronger case building for a deeper downside correction toward and below the 100-DMA, 3930, than a ytd trend reversal with a third, and successful push above the 4100 resistance. The falling earnings expectations and slowing economic activity is the next challenge for stock investors as the risk of another, and a sharp selloff is still very much alive. Same for Nasdaq. The index closed 0.80% lower after the Fed decision, and will likely re-test the support at 11430/11450, and eventually clear it.   Read next: The Australian Dollar Held Above $0.68, Today The Fed Will Make Its Last Decision Of The Year| FXMAG.COM So for those who wanted to see Santa come around this Xmas: he will probably be stuck somewhere in the snow.  USD rebound should remain limited  The US dollar index rebounded from the lowest levels since summer, yet the dollar appetite will likely remain soft, and the rallies will likely be seen as interesting opportunity to sell the top against other majors, given that the Fed's hawkishness has been wildly priced since mid-2021, and a further downside correction would not be surprising, even though it's somewhat counterintuitive to rush back to majors like the euro, which deals with a terrible energy crisis and faces a severe recession if it's not already in one, the pound, which is hammered by economic and political disasters in the UK, amplified by the Brexit's consequences, and the yen, where the BoJ refuses to take a policy action, letting inflation run hot by keeping rates in the negative territory...  Not the same 50bp...  Today, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) are also expected to hike the rates by 50bp to tame inflation in Europe.  But the ECB's and especially the BoE's 50bp hike will likely sound more dovish than the Fed's 50bp hike.  The ECB is expected to revise its inflation forecast higher – which justifies a rate hike, but pull its growth predictions lower – which doesn't make a rate hike seem 'that' right.   If the ECB officials could spit out a date for the start of the QT, that would be a good thing.   The tighter ECB policy – and if all goes well, a softer US dollar - is expected to give further support to the single currency in the coming months, and help the pair extend gains toward the 1.10 mark.   And the euro recovery is one thing that could tame a part of inflationary pressures, making the raw material and energy costs more affordable for European businesses and households.  Across the Channel, the BoE is also expected to hike by 50bp, but try not to boost the BoE hawks. Data released yesterday showed that inflation in Britain slowed to 10.7% in November, which is not a victory, but the economic difficulties in Britain will likely keep the BoE's hands tied.  And finally in Switzerland, the National Bank is also expected to raise the rates by 50bp to keep up with the others. The strong franc has been the SNB's best arm in its fight against inflation. And a 50bp in Switzerland - where the inflation is around 3%, which makes it three times lower than inflation in Europe and around two times lower than inflation in the US - is a bigger hike in real terms, and should further support the franc. The dollar-franc is expected to fall to 0.88/0.90 range in the continuation of the actual bearish trend.

USD/CAD picks up bids to print the first daily gains in four, bounces off weekly low. Sluggish markets, rebound in US Treasury yields allow US Dollar to pare recent losses. WTI crude oil eases from one-week high as downbeat China data, higher interest rates probe oil bulls. USD/CAD extends recovery from weekly low to refresh intraday high near 1.3570 during the first positive day in four amid early Thursday. In doing so, the Loonie pair takes clues from the latest rebound in the US Dollar, as well as a pullback in Canada’s main export item, WTI crude oil. US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates recent losses around 103.80 while bouncing off one-month-old support, as well as the six-month low, as traders turn cautious ahead of multiple central bank announcements. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM On the other hand, WTI crude oil snaps a four-day uptrend as it retreats from the weekly top to $76.70 amid fears of lesser demand due to downbeat China data and higher interest rates at the major central banks. Recently, China’s Retail Sales slumped to -5.9% in November versus -3.6% expected and -0.5% prior while Industrial Production came in at 2.2% compared to 3.3% market forecasts and 5.0% previous readings. Previously, OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted a rebound in oil demand and joined the softer US Dollar to favor the energy bulls. The market’s reassessment of the Fed verdict, suggesting a 50 bps rate hike and readiness to hold the rate higher for a longer period, could be cited as a reason for the US Dollar’s latest recovery, as well as the USD/CAD pair’s upside. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures remain mildly offered but the US 10-year Treasury bond yields probe a two-day downtrend near 3.50%. Further, the US two-year bond yields also extend recovery from the monthly low while printing the first daily positive in three near 4.25%. Read next: From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level | FXMAG.COM Moving on, the second-tier data from Canada, mainly relating to housing and employment insurance, may entertain USD/CAD pair traders. However, major attention will be given to the monetary policy announcements from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE). Technical analysis Wednesday’s Doji candlestick above the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), at 1.3535 by the press time, keeps USD/CAD buyers hopeful of reaching the monthly high near 1.3700.

US Dollar Index rebounds from six-month low, snaps two-day downtrend. Fed announced 50 bps rate increase, showed readiness to keep it higher for long. A reassessment of Fed’s rate bias seems favoring US Treasury yields and the greenback. Multiple central bank announcements, US Retail Sales eyed for fresh impulse. US Dollar Index (DXY) remains mildly bid around 104.00 as it prints the first daily gains in three during the early Thursday morning in Europe. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies traces the firmer US Treasury bond yields amid sluggish market sentiment. That said, the DXY initially failed to cheer the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.50% interest rate hike and the readiness to keep it higher for long as traders didn’t find anything new from the statements or Fed actions that were unexpected. However, a reassessment of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) moves highlights upward revision of inflation forecasts and a cut in the growth forecasts, as well as the 5.1% terminal rate, as the key hawkish actions and propelled the US Treasury bond yields and the DXY. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields probe a two-day downtrend near 3.50% while the two-year US bond yields also extend recovery from the monthly low while printing the first daily positive in three near 4.25%. Also likely to have stopped the US dollar’s downside could be the cautious mood ahead of the multiple central bank announcements, including from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE), etc. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures remain directionless while the Asia-Pacific shares grind lower. Moving on, the aforementioned central bank announcements will join the US Retail Sales for November, expected -0.1% MoM versus 1.3% prior, to direct short-term DXY moves. Technical analysis A one-month-old descending support line, close to 103.50 by the press time, joins the oversold RSI conditions to tease DXY bulls. Read next: From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level | FXMAG.COM Also read: US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Monthly support teases DXY bulls amid oversold RSI

Perhaps the first four parts of this construction are fully completed, and now the final actionary leg is being built – the sub-wave z. Apparently, the wave z takes the form of a primary double zigzag â“Œ-Ⓧ-â“Ž, where the sub-waves â“Œ-Ⓧ are formed. Thus, the last actionary primary wave â“Ž may be in the process of construction at the moment. It may end in the form of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y) near 1.402. At that level, cycle wave z will be at 161.8% of cycle wave y. According to an alternative, the formation of a cycle triple zigzag could be fully completed. Therefore, now we may see the construction of the initial part of a new bearish trend. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM The construction of a primary triple zigzag â“Œ-Ⓧ-â“Ž-Ⓧ-Ⓩ is assumed, which is the beginning in a larger correction pattern. It is likely that the primary waves â“Œ-Ⓧ-â“Ž-Ⓧ have already been built. In the near future, market participants can expect the formation of a bearish primary wave Ⓩ, which may take the standard zigzag shape (A)-(B)-(C) and end near 1.311. At that level, it will be equal to primary wave Ⓩ.

USD/CAD seesaws around intraday low after reversing from 1.5-month-old resistance line. Recovery from 100-SMA joins bullish MACD signals, firmer RSI to suggest further advances. 200-SMA, monthly support line adds to the downside filters. USD/CAD picks up bids to pare intraday losses around 1.3640 during early Friday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Loonie pair reverses the early Asian session pullback from a six-week-old descending resistance line. That said, the quote’s bounce off the 100-SMA level, around 1.3530 by the press time, joins the bullish MACD signals and the firmer RSI (14), not overbought, to signal the USD/CAD pair’s further advances. Hence, the quote’s another battle with the aforementioned resistance line, near 1.3675 at the latest, can’t be ruled out. However, a clear upside break of the same, as well as a run-up beyond the monthly top of 1.3700, becomes necessary for the USD/CAD bull’s conviction. Following that, a run-up towards the previous monthly top surrounding 1.3810 can’t be ruled out. On the flip side, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s early November moves, near 1.3585, acts as immediate support to watch during the quote’s further downside. Additionally challenging the USD/CAD bears is an upward-sloping support line from mid-November and the 200-SMA, respectively around 1.3500 and 1.3480. To sum up, USD/CAD remains on the bull’s radar despite the loss on daily basis. USD/CAD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further recovery expected

US Dollar Index pares the biggest daily gain in 10 weeks amid sluggish session. Mixed US statistics, Fed’s hesitance in praising hawks keep sellers hopeful. Recession woes and Sino-American tensions keep buyers hopeful ahead of December PMIs. US Dollar Index (DXY) makes rounds to 104.30-40 as it prints mild losses heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies consolidates the biggest daily gain since early November, marked the previous day. The DXY’s failure to defend the previous day’s rebound from a six-month low could be linked to recently mixed data in the US and a lack of a major catalyst during early Friday. It’s worth noting that the US Retail Sales flashed -0.6% MoM figure in November versus 0.1% expected and 1.3% prior. Further, manufacturing survey details from Philadelphia Fed and New York Fed came in disappointing for the said month whereas Industrial Production eased in November and the Jobless Claims also dropped for the week ended on December 09. It’s worth noting that the market sentiment remains dicey as recession woes underpin the Treasury bond yields but the US stock futures and equities in the Asia-Pacific region remain lackluster ahead of the final shot of data from the big week. The reason for the lack of negative performances of equities could be linked to the hopes for more stimulus from China. With the mixed signals, the US Dollar Index fails to extend the previous day’s recovery moves. On Thursday, the global central bankers’ rush towards higher rates and readiness to keep them high for longer, to battle the inflation woes, seemed to have triggered the risk-off mood and underpinned the US Dollar demand. On the same line could be the latest Sino-American tussles as Reuters reported that the Biden administration on Thursday added Chinese memory chipmaker YMTC and 21 "major" Chinese players in the artificial intelligence chip sector to a trade blacklist, broadening its crackdown on China's chip industry. Moving on, the market forecasts surrounding the US S&P Global PMIs appear mixed as Services activities are likely to improve but not the manufacturing ones. Even so, both these sectors are expected to print the below 50 figure that suggests a contraction in activities and could weigh on the US Dollar in case of a downbeat outcome. It should be noted, however, that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hesitance in favoring the hawks, despite raising rates by 50 basis points (bps), seems to challenge the DXY bulls. Technical analysis US Dollar Index losses could be linked to the failure to cross a one-week-old descending resistance line, around 104.55 by the press time. However, RSI (14) stays near the oversold conditions and hence challenges the odds favoring major declines.

Pressure returned on markets due to negative sentiment that followed the Fed's decision on interest rates. Most likely, players wanted to lock in gains on assets at more interesting prices, so even though the rate hike and latest economic statistics in the US were not surprising, they did their best to trigger a collapse, using recession fears as an excuse. Of course, it could also be because the Fed said they expected a slightly higher average interest rate level, but that was not new, as is the economic data that was lower than expected. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that yesterday's decline is a sign of a global reversal as an important leading indicator, which is US treasuries, did not show a strong increase. Stock markets are also beginning to grow since today's European session, and this may continue until the US trading session. It seems that the gold market is climbing as well, while dollar is declining smoothly. There will probably a rally today and for the remaining two weeks until the end of the year, which will not only recover yesterday's losses, but will also lead to a noticeable increase in risk appetite, accompanied by a weaker dollar. Forecasts for today: EUR/USD The pair halted at 1.0655, but stabilization in markets and increased drisk appetite could push it towards 1.0785. USD/CAD The pair is trading within the range of 1.3525-1.3700. If market sentiment improves, it could stay at 1.3525.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-12-19 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330015

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its interest rates by 50bp as expected yesterday, and President Christine Lagarde said that the ECB will raise the rates by another 50bp at the next meeting. Then by another 50bp in the meeting after that. And another 50bp in the meeting after that. Then another one! Markets European yields spiked during Madame Lagarde’s speech. The DAX and the CAC fell more than 3%. The S&P500 slipped below its 100-DMA, as Nasdaq fell below its 50-DMA. The EURUSD spiked to 1.0736, the highest level since April. EU The significant hawkish shift in ECB’s policy stance, and the determination of the European leaders to shot inflation to the ground should continue giving some more support to the euro, therefore, price pullbacks in EURUSD could be interesting dip buying opportunities for a further rally toward the 1.10 mark. US And if the US dollar strengthened yesterday, it was certainly due to a heavy selloff in stocks and bonds that ended up with investors sitting on cash. Other than that, the data released in the US yesterday was not brilliant! The retail sales fell by most in a year; holiday shopping apparently didn’t help improve numbers. The Empire Manufacturing index tanked from 4.5 to -11, versus -1 expected by analysts. Both data hinted at a slowing economic growth in the US, which should normally boost recession fears and keep the Fed hawks at bay. And that could mean a further downside correction in the dollar in the run up to Xmas. Netflix In Individual stock news, Netflix slumped more than 8.5% on news that its new ad-supported versions didn’t kick off well, as most people preferred keeping ads away when they were in the middle of the Meghan and Harry drama! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:35 Surprise hawkishness from Christine Lagarde 3:09 … sent sovereign bonds & stocks tumbling 5:13 … should help the euro recover 7:01 … at least against the British pound 8:14 Netflix falls as ad-supported versions sees weak demand Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #hawkish #ECB #Lagarde #speech #BoE #FOMC #Fed #SNB #rate #decisions #USD #EUR #GBP #CHF #DAX #CAC #SMI #EuroStoxx50 #Netflix #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The dollar was little changed on Friday after jumping in the previous session as traders analyzed a string of central bank rate hikes and grappled with the prospect that borrowing costs could still rise. This week has been hot in central bank events. The Fed raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points on Tuesday. Jerome Powell's speech at the press conference sparked volatility in the market.Further tightening is excellent news for the US dollar. Yesterday, the ECB and the BoE also followed the Fed and raised rates by 50 bp. GBP/USD Thursday's Bank of England rate hike of 0.5 percentage point pushed base rates to highs not seen since 2008 (3.5%). But even that wasn't enough to prevent GBP/USD from its biggest daily drop in six weeks The markets interpreted the move as a "dovish" increase in interest rates, even though six of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee in London voted for it, and another member wanted stricter action. This division does not suggest that the Bank is willing to refrain from further rate hikes. Thursday's close of the day showed that GBP/USD fell convincingly below the uptrend line that had previously held back bearish enthusiasm for five weeks. This puts clear downward pressure on the pair. The pound fell on Friday against the euro and the U.S. dolar. Sterling fell 0.2% to $1.2160 against the dolar, versus the euro , the pound exchanged hands at 87.39 pence, 0.2% lower on the day. EUR/USD EUR/USD touched a post-ECB high of 1.0736 yesterday before consolidating gains around the 1.0650 area. The technical set-up for the pair remains positive. Yesterday the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 bp as expected. Thus, the rate level reached 2.50%. This level was last seen in 2008. The ECB expects it to increase further. The European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates "significantly" in the coming months to fight entrenched inflation, The ECB President Christine Lagarde said yesterday, sending a hawkish signal to the market. This signal turned out to be crucial for the strength of the euro. The ECB's hawkish stance, if fully realized, suggests that the single currency has room to grow in the coming weeks. Read next: Knorr-Bremse Strengthens Its ESG Measures In Partnership With Deutsche Bank | Arizona Is Attractive For The EV Market | FXMAG.COM USD/JPY Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fell 0.54% to 137.01 on Friday. The Japanese yen held above 137 per dollar, facing renewed pressure after the US Federal Reserve offered a more hawkish outlook on its policy. The yen clearly depreciated after the Fed meeting. However, it may fall as the Bank of Japan meeting approaches early next week (19-20/12) AUD/USD The Australian dollar fell sharply to around $0.67, facing renewed pressure as major central banks presented a more hawkish monetary policy outlook than markets anticipated, adding to fears of a potential recession next year. In the European session, it will fall even more and is below $0.67. Moreover, the latest data showed that consumer inflation expectations in Australia hit a seven-month low in December, while the country's unemployment rate remained at 3.4% in November. Investors also reacted to data showing that Australian private sector activity contracted for the third straight month in December. Source: investing.com The RBA has now raised the cash rate for eight consecutive months and said it expects further tightening to bring down inflation. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com, dailyfx.com

If you pay attention to the daily chart, the USD/CAD commodity currency pair appears to be stuck in the weekly Resistance Orderblock area which is quite significant at 1.3702 where at the same time a Double Top pattern (Cyan circle) is formed which is also followed by a deviation between its price movement and the Awesome Oscillator indicator, in addition to the emergence the Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern is also strengthening if in the next few days The Loonie will be brought down to the level of 1.3225 but with a note that during the fall there was no significant upward correction movement that exceeded and penetrated above the 1.3750 level because if this level is successfully broken above, the decline scenario described previously will become invalid and cancel by itself. Relevance up to 02:00 2022-12-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/115919

FX volatility remains subdued as financial markets lick their wounds ahead of year-end. This week's data calendar is relatively light in the G10 space, with a focus on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, US housing data and confidence readings on both sides of the Atlantic. We'll also see central bank meetings in Hungary and the Czech Republic, too   USD: Risk rolls over Looking across asset markets the investor mood seems to be leaning towards a 2023 slowdown. Bond markets remain bid, while both equity and commodity markets are rolling lower after a decent rally in October and November. Investors will continue to focus on China as a potential engine of growth in 2023, but for the time being, we have yet to see any material outperformance of the Chinese renminbi or local equity markets. This suggests that the risk of a disorderly exit from zero-Covid policies for the time being trumps the reopening story and perhaps Beijing's re-orientation to growth policies. That leaves the market to focus on the tight(er) monetary policy being implemented around the world. Last week's hawkish shift from the European Central Bank has dented eurozone and global growth prospects for 2023 and leaves the dollar in a rather mixed position. On the one hand, the ECB wants tighter monetary conditions - including a stronger euro. On the other, the Federal Reserve is not done with its tightening cycle and a global slowdown typically is not a good story for a pro-cyclical currency like the euro. Events this week look unlikely to break new ground on this story. In the US, we will see a variety of housing data (all expected to be soft), some consumer confidence data and on Friday the PCE personal income, spending and price data. The November core PCE deflator is expected at a subdued 0.2% month-on-month - in line with the softer CPI prints of October and November. None of this looks likely to provide much support to US bond yields, where the 10-year Treasury is hanging onto the 3.50% area by its fingernails. This all tends to suggest that DXY risks sinking back to the 104.00/104.10 area this week. Chris Turner EUR: Expect comparisons to 2007 Last week's hawkish tilt from the ECB wll invariably draw comparisons to the 2007 period, where EUR/USD enjoyed a strong rally. The Fed had concluded its tightening cycle at 5.25% in the summer of 2006 and the ECB was playing catch-up - a catch-up which resulted in former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's final and ill-fated rate hike to 3.25% in July 2008. Coincidentally, expectations now are that the ECB will also be taking the policy rate to 3.25% next summer. The difference this time is that global growth is much weaker now than in 2007 (5-6%) and we suspect high energy prices will continue eating into the eurozone's external position. On the agenda today is the Germany Ifo business confidence index for  December. Last week's release of the German PMI data showed a modest pick-up in business confidence - albeit still in recessionary territory. Today's Ifo data is expected to see the expectations component bounce up to 82 from 80 - still very low. Any upside surprise could give EUR/USD a modest boost in thin markets.  We doubt EUR/USD will break new ground this week, although it is hard to rule out a move back up the 1.0700 area. Chris Turner CEE: Last NBH and CNB meetings of the year  The CEE region will remain interesting until the last moment of the year. On Tuesday, the Hungarian National Bank (NBH) will hold its last meeting. The NBH has made it clear on several occasions that the temporary and targeted measures, introduced in mid-October, will remain in place until there is a material and permanent improvement in general risk sentiment. Although we've seen some progress here, we don't think enough has changed to trigger an adjustment in the monetary policy's hawkish "whatever it takes" setup. Nevertheless, Hungary will also be in the spotlight because of other milestones in the EU story. The European Council approved Hungary's recovery plan and suspended cohesion funds for 2021-2027 under the rule of law mechanism. The next step should be the signing of a partnership agreement between Hungary and the EC on the absorption of the cohesion funds. However, it is not clear how and when this will take place. The Czech National Bank (CNB) will hold its last meeting of the year on Wednesday. We expect it to be a non-event, with rates and FX regimes unchanged. The new forecast will not be released until February. Board members have been very open in recent days and hence there is minimal room for any surprises. The traditional dovish majority has publicly declared that interest rates are high enough and continue to choose the "wait and see" path. The governor also confirmed this week that the central bank will continue to defend the koruna. At the same time, another board member confirmed that the CNB has not been active in the market for some time. So it is hard to look for anything new here either.  In the FX market, as we mentioned last week, we believe that the global story has little positive to offer to the region this year. On the other hand, the deterioration in equity market sentiment late last week should have a delayed impact on CEE FX this week. Moreover, domestic rates with the exception of Hungary cannot support FX, so we should see some correction of previous gains in the region this week. We do not think central bank meetings will impact FX much and so the main story will be the Fed and ECB effect from last week. We see the Czech koruna as the most vulnerable as it hit new lows against the euro on Friday. A correction back to 24.250 EUR/CZK should thus not be a problem. On the other hand, we think the Hungarian forint can still benefit from the progress in the EU story for a while and get below 405 EUR/HUF. The Polish zloty remains trapped in the 4.680-700 EUR/PLN band, and we see it rather on the upper side for this week.  Frantisek Taborsky GBP: Sterling will be the main victim of euro strength The ECB would clearly like a stronger euro to help out with its battle against inflation and it was telling at last week's ECB press conference that President Christine Lagarde was keen to highlight that the ECB would be tightening longer than the Fed. If the ECB is to be successful in getting the euro higher, then the euro will need to rally against those currencies with major weights in the trade-weighted euro index. The biggest weights in this index are the US dollar (16%), the Chinese renminbi (14%) and then the British pound (12%). Of the three, we would say that sterling is the most vulnerable given that the Bank of England (BoE) is closer to ending its tightening cycle than the Fed and that the UK's large current account deficit leaves sterling vulnerable in a global slowdown. We suspect EUR/GBP finds good demand under 0.87 now and we remain happy with a 0.89 target for 1Q23. Chris Turner Read this article on THINK

USD/CAD struggles to defend bears during the first daily loss in three. Oil price initially cheered hopes of China stimulus, softer US Dollar before latest consolidation. Inflation is the key but holiday mood could restrict short-term moves. USD/CAD consolidates intraday losses as it grinds higher around 1.3680, following a downbeat start to the week. That said, softer US Dollar and optimism surrounding Crude Oil seemed to have contributed to the Loonie pair’s first daily loss in three before the latest paring of moves amid a light calendar and mixed concerns. US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up bids from intraday low but prints 0.15% daily loss around 104.60 as traders struggle for clear directions. The reason could be linked to the hawkish Fedspeak and softer US PMIs for December. That said, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester and New York Federal Reserve President John Williams recently favored higher rates. On the other hand, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.2 from 47.7 in November, as well as the market expectation of 47.7. Further, S&P Global Services PMI declined to 44.4 in December's flash estimate from 46.2 in November and market expectation of 46.8. It should be noted that the WTI crude oil prices, Canada’s main export retreats to $75.00 after an initial run-up to $75.93. Even so, the black gold snaps a two-day downtrend amid hopes of firmer demand from China and the US decision to buy back oil for its state reserves. On the contrary, global recession woes underpin the US Treasury yields and challenge equity traders. In addition to the mixed signals and holiday mood could also be held responsible for the USD/CAD pair’s latest moves. Moving on, the Bank of Canada's (BOC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) Core for November, expected 6.4% YoY versus 5.8% prior, will be important for the USD/CAD traders ahead of the Fed’s preferred version of inflation, namely Friday’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index, expected 4.6% YoY and 5.0% prior. Technical analysis A seven-day-old horizontal resistance area near 1.3700 inside a rising wedge bearish formation, established since early November, restricts short-term USD/CAD moves.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to hike by another 50 bps. Economists at HSBC still expect a final 50 bps rate hike by the Fed in early 2023 but do not expect rate cuts until 2024. They look for USD weakness during 2023. No rate cuts until 2024 “A slower hiking pace and a recognition that the Fed is in the late stages of the tightening cycle are part of why we expect further USD downside in 2023.” “If slowing US inflation allows the Fed to pare back its hawkishness further and global growth avoids an onerous slowdown, the ‘safe haven’ USD will likely weaken further from here.” “We still think that the FOMC will raise its policy rate by a final 50 bps in February 2023, while admitting upside risks. The FOMC is expected to deliver 50 bps of rate cuts in 2024 (25 bps in Q2 2024 and 25bp in Q3 2024), bringing the federal funds target range back down to 4.25-4.50% by the end of 2024.”  

Volatility has been extremely high for financial markets last week due to the Fed, Bank of England and ECB meetings and the release of economic data. All of them caused sell-offs in risky assets, primarily because nothing new has happened and nothing substantial has been said. The ECB and the Fed raised interest rates as expected, while the latest statistics were in line with expectations. Most central banks also noted that tight monetary policy will continue in 2023. Basically, last week's events have brought back the expectations that a widespread recession could start as early as next year. This led to another stock market crash and a rise of dollar to recent highs. However, the decline is likely just a correction, not a full-scale downward trend as demand could return if market sentiment improves. That could also lead to a weaker dollar and more stable treasury yields during the last two weeks of the year. Forecasts for today: AUD/USD 0.6680 is a key support level in AUD/USD. If market sentiment improves today, the pair could bounce up to 0.6800, then go to 0.6915. USD/JPY Even if USD/JPY is bullish, a rise in risk appetite could prompt the pair to rebound to 138.00.   Relevance up to 06:00 2022-12-21 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330121

A recession in the second half of 2022 was widely discussed. Overall, the entire year has proven to be very full of noteworthy events. Unfortunately, not all of them had the plus sign. The currency market, however, is unconcerned with the type of signal that one event or another had. We trade up if "plus" and down if "minus." Only the movement's direction is up for debate. The ongoing military conflict between Russia and Ukraine took up the majority of the first half of the year. Not because there aren't any battlefield events anymore, but rather because they no longer qualify as "shock" content, the media has recently stopped covering them all. Despite how absurd it may sound, the world is already accustomed to the military conflict in Ukraine, especially considering that it is not the first such conflict to occur since the Second World War. The dollar actively increased during the first half of the year against the backdrop of market anti-risk sentiment. Demand for US currency increased as a result of the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes. Together, these two elements gave the dollar strong support. However, by the end of the year, when it became apparent that the conflict in Ukraine was taking on the appearance of being a protracted one that could last for years, the European Union and the United States would not cave to Russia and would continue to support Ukraine, and that sanctions on both sides, despite hurting the economies of both, did not alter either side's position, the interest in the conflicts around the world started to wane a little. The market has already stopped retaliating violently when one of the parties makes a move on the battlefield or when missiles are fired at cities, military installations, storage facilities, or infrastructure. No one is surprised anymore by the recession. The USA, the UK, and the European Union are the most likely locations. The only remaining query is how durable and strong. Despite this, the market is no longer concerned about it now that the issue has already been thoroughly explored. Additionally, economic growth is no longer interesting because it is obvious that all economies will experience a slowdown. Only inflation is still up for debate. Since inflation is declining quickly and, more importantly, steadily, the United States is in a leading position in this area. However, this is also detrimental to the dollar because the Fed is finding it harder and harder to justify raising interest rates. As a result, demand for the euro and the pound may remain high over the next three to six months because the ECB and the Bank of England will need to raise their interest rates faster than the Fed. This presumption, however, does not eliminate the requirement to first construct a corrective set of waves and only then to construct a new upward section of the trend. I currently view this scenario as the primary one. I conclude from the analysis that the upward trend section's construction has grown more intricate and is almost finished. As a result, I suggest making sales with targets close to the estimated 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci. Although there is a strong likelihood that the upward portion of the trend will become even more extended and complicated, there is currently a signal to turn lower. The construction of a new downward trend segment is predicated on the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. Since the wave marking permits the current construction of a downward trend section, I am unable to advise purchasing the instrument. With targets around the 1.1707 mark, or 161.8% Fibonacci, sales are now more accurate. Wave e is likely finished, though it could take on an even longer form Relevance up to 06:00 2022-12-21 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330244

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.35 lows during the early Asian session on Tuesday before pulling back sharply. The index is seen to be trading close to 114.15 at this point in writing as the bulls are looking to push through the 105.50 initial resistance. The index has tested the backside of its resistance trend line at 103.56, which acts as strong support now. The US dollar index has rallied swiftly through the 104.50 high after printing a low close to 103.00 over the last week. Furthermore, the price has now taken out its initial resistance trendline and is trading into the buy zone. Ideally, the bulls should remain in control from here and push prices through 105.50, 107.00 and higher in the next few trading sessions. The US dollar index has got enough momentum to push through 110.50 in the near to medium term. If prices break above 110.50, it could confirm further upside towards 114.70 and higher as the bulls remain in control. On the flip side, a bearish turn from 110.50 might indicate that the index is heading further downward below 103.00 going forward. It is looking higher from here in the near term though. Trading idea: Potential bullish turn against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305533

USD/CAD picks up bids to reverse the week-start losses. US Dollar benefits from the BOJ-inflicted losses in bond, stock markets. Oil price weaken amid economic fears surrounding China. Canada Retail Sales, US housing data eyed for fresh impulse. USD/CAD clings to mild gains around 1.3700 as the US Dollar reverses the intraday losses heading into Tuesday’s European session. The Loonie pair’s run-up could also be linked to the downside move of Canada’s main export item, namely WTI crude oil. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up bids to pare recent losses around 104.50 as the Treasury bond yields rally on the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) surprise. Recently, the BOJ tweaked its policy to widen the Yield Curve Control (YCC) measures while keeping the monetary policy unchanged. Also underpinning the US Dollar’s latest rebound could be the economic fears surrounding China, as well as the globe. Behind the moves could be the World Bank’s cut in China’s economic forecasts as well as the hawkish actions of the major central banks to tame inflation, especially when the recession fears are already looming. However, comparatively less hawkish comments from the Fed officials join softer US PMIs to challenge DXY bulls. Elsewhere, WTI takes offers to refresh intraday low near $75.50, down half a percent at the latest. The European leaders’ agreement on the oil price cap for Russian energy exports also seems to exert downside pressure on the black gold prices. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures and the Asia-Pacific stocks print losses while the US 10-year Treasury yields rise for the third consecutive day to refresh the monthly peak near 3.70%, at 3.67% by the press time. Looking forward, the risk-aversion wave may help USD/CAD buyers ahead of the Canadian Retail Sales for October, expected -0.3% versus 0.5% prior. On the other hand, US Building Permits and Housing Starts for November may also direct short-term pair moves. Technical analysis A daily closing beyond the 1.3700 hurdle, comprising multiple tops marked in the last two weeks, becomes necessary for the USD/CAD bulls to aim for the previous monthly high near 1.3810. Otherwise, a pullback towards the 50-DMA support of 1.3557 can’t be ruled out.

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.36 lows on Tuesday before finding support again. The index is seen to be trading close to 103.75 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to break above the 104.50-60 interim resistance. The near-term projections are towards 105.70 and 107.10 respectively, taking out immediate resistances as marked on the 4H chart here. The US dollar index might have carved a meaningful bottom around 103.00 last week. The index has carved an upswing between 103.07 and 104.50 levels, which has been followed by a corrective drop back towards 103.36 recently. If the above short-term wave structure holds well, the bulls will remain inclined to push through 107.10 in the next few trading sessions. The US dollar index seems to have completed its corrective decline towards 103.36 and bounced off higher producing a Morning Star candlestick pattern. A high probability remains for prices to hold above 103.07 and push higher towards 105.50 and 107.10 in the next few weeks. The possibility remains for a push through 110.50 going forward. Trading idea: Potential rally towards 107.00 against 102.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305723

USD/CAD is falling this week, demonstrating a downtrend after five weeks of consecutive growth. So, the loonie was near 1.3250 in the beginning of November, but last Friday, the bulls tested the 37th figure. The 500-point march was accompanied by corrective pullbacks, but in general, the uptrend was clearly visible. Conflicting results on the Bank of Canada's December meeting only fueled the bullish sentiment. Despite the greenback's shaky position, the USD/CAD bulls were rising, eventually climbing to the 37th figure. But their confidence ran out in this price area. Obviously, the bulls need a source of information to boost them so they can work on a bullish attack. However, bears also need some informational boost to develop a bearish pullback to 1.3550 (upper limit of the Kumo cloud on D1), and then to 1.3460 (lower limit of this cloud on the same chart). Today's report may "rattle" the pair. At the start of Wednesday's U.S. trading session, Canada will release key data on the country's inflation growth. And in light of the controversial results of the Bank of Canada's December meeting, this report is particularly significant to the Loonie. Two weeks ago, the Canadian central bank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem lamented the high inflation rate and positively assessed the dynamics of the national economy growth in the third quarter. On the one hand, the formal results of the December meeting were in favor of the Canadian dollar. On the other hand, a closer look at these results suggests opposite conclusions. By the way, the Canadian dollar reacted negatively to the stance of the accompanying statement, falling in many currency pairs. And here's why. Behind the central bank's statement that inflation in Canada is still at an unacceptably high level is an inherently opposite clarification. The Bank of Canada said in an accompanying statement that the three-month rates of change in core inflation have come down - and according to central bank economists, this is "an early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum." In other words, the central bank saw the first signs of a slowdown in inflationary growth, with all the consequences that this implies. In fact, the possible consequences of a further decline in inflation are also mentioned in the text of the final communique. The phrase in question is worth quoting in full: The "Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target". Such preceding statements add value to an already significant macro report. This suggests that today's release has the potential to trigger price turbulence in the USD/CAD pair, especially if the final numbers deviate from projections. Let me remind you that in October, the core consumer price index (which excludes volatile food and energy prices), in annualized terms, declined to 5.8% from the previous 6% value. Instead of a decline, most experts expected an increase to 6.3%. According to preliminary forecasts, the downtrend will develop in November. Thus, according to the majority of experts, the core CPI will come out at 5.6% (y/y): this could be the weakest growth rate of the indicator since March 2022. As for overall inflation, a decline in indicators is also expected - both in monthly and annual terms. In particular, in monthly terms, the index should decline into negative territory (-0.1%) after growth to 0.7% in October. On a year-on-year basis, the index is likely to come out at 6.6% (the weakest growth rate since February of this year). As we can see, the forecasts are rather weak, so if the report turns out to be in the red zone, the Canadian dollar will be under a lot of pressure. In such a case, the pair might retest the 37th figure again, updating the current week's high (1.3702). Take note that the resistance level is slightly higher, at 1.3760 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), so the USD/CAD bulls have a good chance to break through the 37th figure, if the current inflation report turns out to be a disappointment. However, an alternative scenario is also possible: if the report is in the green zone, the bears could develop a bearish rollback to 1.3550 (Kumo cloud upper limit at D1) and then to 1.3460 (Kumo cloud lower limit on the same chart). At the moment, it would be best to maintain a wait-and-see attitude on the pair: the inflation report will determine the price movement vector in the medium term. Relevance up to 12:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330374

US Dollar Index takes offers to refresh intraday low, breaks one-week-old ascending trend line. Bearish MACD signals allow sellers to aim for the previous weekly low, also the lowest level in six months. 100-SMA, weekly top add to the upside filters even if buyers manage to cross support-turned-resistance line. US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats towards the weekly low, marked the previous day, taking offers to refresh the intraday low near 103.83 during early Thursday in Europe. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies breaks a one-week-old ascending support line, now resistance near 103.92, while approaching the six-month low marked in the last week. It’s worth noting that the bearish MACD signals and a U-turn from 104.93 during early weekdays also favor the DXY sellers to approach the multi-day low surrounding 103.40. During the fall, the weekly bottom near 103.80 and horizontal support around 103.60 could test the US Dollar Index bears. Additionally, the DXY’s sustained weakness past 103.40 will highlight the 103.00 round figure ahead of directing bears toward the May 2022 low near 101.30. On the contrary, the previous support line around 103.92 precedes the 104.00 round figure to restrict short-term US Dollar Index rebound. Following that, the 100-SMA and the weekly top could challenge the DXY bulls around 104.75 and 104.95 in that order. Also acting as an upside filter is the 105.00 round figure, a break of which could welcome DXY bulls targeting the monthly high of 105.82. US Dollar Index: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected

USD/CAD holds lower grounds near intraday bottom, prints four-day downtrend. Cautious optimism, downbeat Treasury yields weigh on US Dollar. WTI seesaws near 13-day high amid hopes of more demand on winter, travel concerns. USD/CAD takes offers to refresh intraday low near 1.3580 during early Thursday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Loonie pair drops for the fourth consecutive day while extending the previous day’s downside break of a short-term key support trend line toward another support line. That said, the quote’s latest weakness could be linked to the broad US Dollar weakness, as well as firmer prices of WTI crude oil, Canada’s main export item. It should be noted that the mixed prints of Canada inflation data failed to recall USD/CAD buyers the previous day. US Dollar Index (DXY) drops half a percent to around 103.85 at the latest as the US 10-year Treasury yields remain depressed at around 3.65%, extending the previous day’s pullback from the monthly high. WTI crude oil prints mild losses as it pares the daily gains around $78.40. Even so, hopes of more energy demand due to fierce winter and more travel forecasts keep the black gold positive on a weekly basis. On Wednesday, Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 6.8% YoY in November from 6.9% in October, versus market forecasts of 6.7%. Further, the more important reading of inflation, namely the Core Bank of Canada (BOC) CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained unchanged at 5.8% YoY. It should be noted that the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) second unscheduled bond-buying joins the cautious optimism in the market, as portrayed by mildly bid stock futures and Asia-Pacific equities, also exert downside pressure on the USD/CAD prices. Bloomberg cites China’s State Council and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to hint at more positives for the dragon nation and revives the market’s optimism of late. “China’s State Council, People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the country’s top securities regulator jointly conducted a study during last week’s economic policy meeting, aiming to prioritize growth and boost the property market in 2023,” reported Bloomberg. Alternatively, news suggesting China’s biggest budget deficit on record, for the January-November period, joins the Russia-Ukraine woes to probe the USD/CAD bears. Looking forward, final prints of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) details for the third quarter (Q3) could entertain traders ahead of Friday’s US Core PCE Price Index for November, also known as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. That said, the US GDP is expected to confirm 2.9% Annualized growth in Q3 while the Core PCE is anticipated to also meet the initial forecasts of 4.6% QoQ during the stated period. Technical analysis A clear downside break of the two-week-old ascending trend line, around 1.3630 by the press time, directs USD/CAD bears towards an upward-sloping support line from November 15, close to 1.3540 at the latest.

he Dollar King was back in 2022. Will anything change in 2023? And how will safe haven assets fare in this context of high inflation and geopolitical tensions? Gold & Oil: is further strength still on the table?   Find out all the answers in our Market Outlook 2023! 00:00 Intro 00:29 How impressive was the 2021-2022 US dollar rally? Could it extend in 2023 or will it extinguish? 2:47 Japanese yen was the worst G20 performer of 2022. What's next for the yen and the BoJ? 5:29 Has the Swiss National Bank given up on its fight against the strong franc? 7:35 Why did Gold perform so poorly in a year of rising inflation and geopolitical tensions? 10:53 Wasn't Crude Oil supposed to grow to $200pb? Is further oil strength still on the table? 15:33 What's the trade of 2023? You can find the first part of the Outlook 2023 Stocks & Indices here: https://youtu.be/OIMXEAxIRrE Glenn began his investment management career in 1997 and has managed private client and family office wealth ever since. Glenn is the Founder & Managing Director of Harver Capital, an active macro investment manager at www.harvercapital.com. Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 at the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high-net-worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst at the London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as a Senior Analyst in 2020. _____ #swissquote #forex #forextrading #commodities #inflation #crudeoil #chf #usd _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars, and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      

Almost at the end of an active trading week (ahead of the Christmas holidays), the dollar remains under pressure. At the same time, the dollar index (DXY) does not leave attempts to update new (since the end of June) lows. Last week, DXY futures touched the 103.40 mark, the lowest since June 29, and this week they again came close to it three times (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). As of writing, DXY was at 103.69, 26 points above today's low. Market participants are still under the impression of the Fed meeting, which ended last week. As we know, Fed officials decided to reduce the pace of monetary policy tightening, raising the interest rate by 0.50% (after raising the rate by 0.75% in June, July, September, November). And although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tried to dispel doubts that market participants had about the tough prospects for monetary policy and the dollar strengthened the day after the meeting, in general, the dollar index continues to develop downward dynamics that originated in October. As we noted in one of our recent reviews, many economists are already predicting the Fed will cut the size of the rate hike again in early 2023, moving on to 0.25% hikes in February and March. And this is a harbinger of a deeper drop in DXY. The first signal for new short positions will be a breakdown of the local support level and 50 EMA on the weekly chart of the DXY index (CFD #USDX in the MT4 trading terminal), passing through 104.50, and the 104.00 "round" support level. As you can see, both support levels have been broken, and the sellers of the dollar and DXY index are trying to gain a foothold in the zone below the 104.00 mark to push it lower towards the 100.00 "round" support level. A breakdown of the 98.40 key support level will finally break the DXY bullish trend. As for today's economic calendar, a whole block of important macro statistics for the United States will be released at 13:30 GMT. In addition to the final releases on GDP, price indices for the 3rd quarter (the data should confirm the growth of indicators), the weekly report on the state of the U.S. labor market will be published with data on the number of jobless claims. The state of the labor market (together with GDP and inflation) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy. Initial and continuing claims for benefits are expected to remain at pre-pandemic lows, which is also positive for the dollar, indicating the stability of the U.S. labor market. In view of this, we should expect the dollar to rise during the American trading session. However, we also need to be prepared for its decline, especially if the data does not live up to expectations, or revised for the worse. Tomorrow, market participants will closely follow the publication (also at 13:30 GMT) of data on orders for durable goods in the U.S. and Americans' personal income/spending data. All these are important indicators for the dollar. In other words, an active increase in volatility is expected at the end of the week, giving us some interesting trading opportunities.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 11:00 2022-12-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330542

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rose through the 104.24 high during the New York session on Thursday before it faced mild resistance. The index has eased off a bit and is seen to be trading close to 104.00 at this point in writing. The bulls are looking poised to push through the 105.50 initial resistance in the near term, provided that 103.00 holds good. The US dollar index might have carved a significant bottom close to the 103.00 mark last week. The corrective drop, which began from the 114.70 high, looks complete around 103.00, printed last week. If the above structure holds well, the bulls will remain in control from here on and push through 105.50 and 107.00 levels in a few coming sessions. On the flip side, if the index is ready to produce a much deeper correction lower below 103.00, we can expect prices to produce a pullback/corrective rally at least towards 110.50 in the near term. The bears might be back in control thereafter, targeting below 103.00. Either way, the bias is looking higher in the near term. Trading idea: Potential rally against 102.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306092

USD/CAD comes under some renewed selling pressure on Friday amid a modest USD downtick. A recovery in global risk sentiment is seen weighing the safe-haven buck and exerting pressure. Hawkish Fed expectations should limit the USD fall and lend support ahead of the US PCE data. The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from a one-week low and meets with a fresh supply on Friday. The pair remains depressed heading into the European session and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily range, around the 1.3630-1.3625 region. A modest recovery in the US equity futures prompts some selling around the safe-haven US Dollar, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor weighing on the USD/CAD pair. The USD downtick, however, is likely to remain limited amid reviving bets for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed, bolstered by the upbeat US macro data released on Thursday. In fact, the US GDP growth for the third quarter was revised higher to show that the economy expanded by 3.2%, faster than the 2.9% estimated previously. Adding to this, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment-related benefits increased less than expected during the week ended December 17, pointing to a still-tight labour market. The resilient US economy could allow the Fed to continue raising borrowing costs, which, in turn, continues to act as a tailwind for the US Treasury bond yields and favours the USD bulls. Meanwhile, subdued action around crude oil prices fails to provide any impetus to the commodity-linked Loonie and could further lend support to the USD/CAD pair. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data. The Core PCE Price Index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - will be looked upon for fresh cues on inflation and influence the US central bank's decision on future rate hikes. This, in turn, will play a key role in driving the USD demand in the near term and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/CAD pair on the last day of the week. Apart from this, oil price dynamics should further contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the major.

The dollar fluctuated on Friday and was little changed in morning trading in London after two days of gains, as investors weighed up the outlook for interest rates following the release of stronger than expected U.S. economic data on Thursday. The dollar index has dropped more than 8% since hitting a 20-year high in September, with a sharp slowdown in U.S. inflation raising hopes that the Fed may soon end its tightening cycle. A second report said the U.S. economy rebounded in the third quarter at a pace faster than previously estimated. In today's economic calendar, the focus is solely on US economic data. EUR/USD The euro was up slightly against the dollar, standing 0.1% higher at $1.061, after slipping less than 0.1% on Thursday. The pair traded low yesterday around 1.06, sometimes falling below this level. Today, the pair is recovering and trading above 1.06 again, mainly in the 1.0610-1.0620 range GBP/USD The cable pair is trading around 1.20. It is now up and trading close to $1.21, 1.2070 to be exact. Yesterday, the price of the pair fell even below 1.20, today it is recovering, similarly to the euro pair. It grows especially during the European session. Yesterday’s UK GDP brought about the first quarter of negative growth for the UK economy in 2022. In addition, strike action in the UK, dishing household income in the midst of elevated inflation makes conditions tough for the Bank of England (BoE) but may likely end rate hikes sooner than the Federal Reserve. Read next: Migration Of Sports From Traditional Television To Streaming Is Chugging Ahead- The NFL Sunday Ticket On YouTube| FXMAG.COM USD/JPY USD/JPY holds trade above 132. And like the other major currency pairs, it is trading much higher today than it did at the end of yesterday. The Japanese yen was down 0.2% at 132.62 to the dollar. Yet the Japanese currency was on track for a weekly gain of around 3% after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) tweaked a key bond market policy earlier this week. Former deputy finance minister Eisuke Sakakibara said in an interview with Bloomberg that he sees USD/JPY could rise to 120. Earlier this year, he said USD/JPY could rise to 150. In October it was just over 152, its highest level since 1990. And maybe this time his predictions will come true. He also believes the BoJ may raise the yield curve control limit at the January meeting. Further tightening of monetary policy by the BoJ may not be what some market participants expect, and further hawkish attitude may come as a surprise. The Japanese yen is a little confused after CPI figures bring pressure on building prices for the country's archipelago. The headline CPI was the highest in 30 years and by the end of November amounted to 3.8% yoy. It was below expectations at 3.9%, but above standard at 3.7%. AUD/USD The Australian pair traded below $0.67 yesterday. Today she tried to cross that level again. I managed to get over it for a while. Currently, the pair is below $0.67, 0.6696 to be exact. The Australian dollar traded below $0.67 facing renewed pressure as better-than-expected US data bolstered the case for further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, a recent rise in local bond yields has saved the Australian from further losses as an unexpected hawkish turn from the Bank of Japan fueled expectations that Japanese investors could shed Australian debt to bring some funds back home. Source: dailyfx.com, investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

The Canadian dollar has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3600, down 0.33%. We could see stronger movement from the Canadian dollar in the North American session, with key events in both Canada and the US. Canada releases GDP for October, with a forecast of a weak gain of 0.1% m/m. This would be unchanged from September GDP. Canadian consumers have been holding tighter to the purse strings and saving their hard-earned money, as wage growth has failed to keep pace with inflation. The decline in consumer spending has hurt economic growth and there are worrying signs that economic growth has stalled in the fourth quarter. In the US, the week wraps up with a host of events. The markets will be paying particular attention to the PCE Core Index, the Fed’s preferred interest indicator. The index is expected to slow to 4.6% y/y in November, down from 5.0% a month earlier. Personal Spending and Personal Income are also expected to soften. The US also releases durable goods, UoM consumer confidence and UoM inflation expectations. GDP revised upwards, jobless claims beat forecast The US dollar received a lift on Thursday, thanks to some solid US data. Unemployment claims rose to 216,000, up from 214,000, but investors liked that the reading was lower than the consensus of 222,000. As well, GDP for Q3 was revised upwards to 3.2%, up from 2.9% in the initial estimate. The strong data is another indication that the Federal Reserve needs to maintain its aggressive tightening stance, which has raised the likelihood of higher-for-longer rates. The markets were hoping that Thursday’s Canadian inflation report would provide clues about BoC rate policy, but inflation was mixed. Headline CPI slowed to 6.8%, down from 6.9%, while two core indicators rose slightly. It appears too early to determine if inflation is headed lower, and as thing stands, there is a strong likelihood that the BoC will raise rates by 25 basis points at its January meeting.   USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.3640 and 1.3762 1.3576 and 1.3484 are providing support This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The US dollar was one of the winning trades of 2022, peaking in September at a 20-year high, gaining about 20% against a basket of currencies. But will it dominate next year amid a slower interest rate cycle, recession fears and other external factors such as China's reopening? The current year for the U.S. dollar began with bullish sentiment, which intensified when the Federal Reserve began an aggressive tightening cycle in March. Since then, the Fed has raised a total of 425 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25–4.5%. The Fed has been one of the main drivers of the U.S. dollar. On top of that, the poor stock market performance prompted many investors to use the dollar as a safe-haven currency. Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to a near 20-year high above 114 in September. Looking to 2023, the Fed remains hawkish despite a slightly smaller 50 basis point increase this month compared to a 75 basis point increase in the previous four meetings. At the December press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said: "We've raised 425 basis points this year, and we're into restrictive territory. It's now not so important how fast we go. It's far more important to think about what is the ultimate level. And ... how long do we remain restrictive? That will become the most important question." The key question for the U.S. dollar next year is how long the Fed will need to maintain higher rates. According to the Fed's latest economic forecasts, the average federal funds rate forecast for next year is 5.1%, with GDP projected at 0.5% and PCE inflation slowing to 3.1% in 2023. Strong dollar by the beginning of 2023 Many analysts see the future in USD trading early to mid next year, with central bank meetings and inflation data setting the tone for 2023. "FX markets are assuming that central banks can signal the all-clear on inflation and deliver gentle easing cycles to ensure soft landings in 2023. We suspect the reality will not be quite as kind to financial markets," said ING's FX strategists Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole. "We back a stronger dollar into early 2023." Wells Fargo views 2023 as the dollar's "last hurrah" before the start of a bearish trend. "The greenback can experience a bout of renewed strength into early 2023. With the Fed likely to deliver more hikes than markets are priced for, a hawkish Fed should support the greenback," said Wells Fargo 2023 Outlook. "We believe the Fed is likely to deliver more interest rate hikes than financial markets are priced for, and indeed more tightening than many other central banks." However, by the middle of next year, the outlook is changing as the U.S. economy begins to slow down, putting pressure on the dollar. "Starting in the middle of next year, we believe growth differentials between the United States and major foreign economies should start to favor international G10 countries, and these growth dynamics should be a contributing force to a sustained dollar depreciation," Wells Fargo said. "We expect the United States to enter recession only during the second half of next year." Relevance up to 10:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330654

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.50-60 support range during the Asia session on Tuesday as consolidation continues. The index is seen to be trading close to the 103.60 level at this point in writing as bears might be testing support for the last time before giving up. A push above 104.40 will confirm that bulls are back in control and a meaningful bottom is in place above 103.00. The US dollar index might have completed its corrective drop, which began from the 114.70 highs earlier. The last wave of correction seems to have terminated just above the 103.00 mark and prices bounced higher through 104.50 thereafter. If the above structure holds well, bulls will be poised to come back strong and push through 105.50 and 107.00 respectively. The index remained subdued within a tight range between 103.40 and 104.30 as seen on the 4H chart presented here. The recent drop to the 103.50-60 zone could be the last wave before a bullish breakout occurs. Prices are expected to push through 107.00 at least if not higher further. Watch out for resistance around 110.50 going forward. Trading plan: Potential rally against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306387

USD/CAD has surrendered the previous week’s low around 1.3560 amid weakness in the US Dollar Index. A decline in the US PCE and US Durable Goods Orders data has cemented expectations for lower inflation ahead. An increment in oil prices led by supply worries on expected cuts from Russia has supported the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD is expected to deliver more weakness below 1.3550 amid a Double Top formation. USD/CAD has witnessed a steep fall after surrendering the previous week’s low around 1.3560 in the early European session. The Loonie has dropped to near 1.3550 and is expected to display more weakness as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has faced immense pressure led by a decline in the United States Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data released on Friday. The US Dollar Index has turned sideways in a 103.60-103.80 range after a gap down open. The appeal for the USD Index has been trimmed led by upbeat market sentiment. A significant decline in the consumption expenditure by households in the United States economy has improved the risk appetite of the market participants. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have extended their gains after a firmer revival on Friday. A sheer drop in the consumption expenditure and the United States Durable Goods Orders data has provided comfort to the US equities. The return on 10-year US Treasury bonds is hovering around 3.74%. A decline in US PCE favors further inflation softening Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell and his teammates are putting their blood and sweat into achieving price stability in the United States economy. Inflation is still roaring, however, a gradual slowdown in the inflationary pressures on a recurring basis is delighting the Fed policymakers. The headline PCE dropped to 5.5% while the street was expecting a drop of 5.3% but remained significantly lower than the former release of 6.1%. While the core PCE Price Index remained in line with the estimates of 4.7% and lower than the prior release of 5.0%. This has cemented expectations of further decline in the United States inflation ahead. Consumption expenditure by households is a critical inflation indicator and a decline in the same is going to force the producers to curtail prices of goods and services at factory gates.   US Durable Goods Orders contraction favors less-hawkish Federal Reserve policy Apart from the decline in the United States PCE data, the catalyst that has impacted the US Dollar Index is the decline in the demand for Durable Goods. The US Durable Goods Orders have contracted by 2.1% against the consensus of a 0.6% contraction. A decline in demand for Durable Goods indicates a further drop in the core inflation measures as a slowdown in demand is critical for softening inflation in the economy. This may compel the Federal Reserve to go light on the interest rates by looking for a smaller rate hike. Also, a continuous decline in the overall demand could result in a lower interest rate peak by the Fed. Oil prices above $80.00 support the Canadian Dollar Oil prices have extended their upside journey and have crossed the psychological hurdle of $80.00 on escalating supply worries after Russia warned of supply cuts to offset the price cap imposed by G7 nations along with the European Union. According to Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Moscow may cut its oil output by 500,000-700,000 barrels a day in early CY2023. Earlier, the G7 levied a price cap on Russian oil supply at $60/barrel to weaken its income for funding arms and ammunitions requirement for war with Ukraine. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the United States and higher oil prices support the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD technical outlook USD/CAD has witnessed a steep fall after forming a Double Top chart pattern on an hourly scale. The Loonie asset witnessed a steep fall while attempting to surpass the crucial resistance of 1.3700 with less enthusiasm and zeal. The major is expected to display sheer downside if it surrenders the crucial support placed from December 14 low around 1.3520. The 50-and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.3615 have delivered a death cross, which indicates more weakness in the Lonnie asset ahead. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which signals that the downside momentum has been triggered.     search   g_translate    

It has been quite a quiet start to the week with many major markets still closed for Xmas holiday, but no one saw Santa coming this year, have you? Japan, Azazon, USD On the contrary, the Bank of Japan led drama across the global financial markets reminded that the year will certainly not end on a positive footage, Amazon became the first US megacap to lose more than a trillion USD in market cap, and the expectations for the S&P500 are very much mixed… …even though the last trading week of the year is expected to be marked by a ‘Santa rally’. US PCE data, China A few encouraging news could, indeed, give a minor boost to equity markets, among them the softer US PCE data, and the Chinese reopening news despite hundreds of millions of new Covid cases that threaten a smooth coming back. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 Kuroda bangs the last nail on Santa’s coffin 4:16 US inflation gives further easing signs 5:19 But stock investors may not get too excited… 6:17 Amazon lost $1 trillion market cap 8:28 Expect thin trading before year-end 8:56 Hectic China reopening could still boost crude oil Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #hawkish #BoJ #ECB #Fed #USD #EUR #GBP #JPY #Amazon #crudeoil #China #Covid #reopening #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The United States Dollar Index on the 4-hour chart seems to be moving in ranging conditions in the range of 103.42-104.90 which has also been confirmed by the movement of the Moving Average which is moving in the range of the body of the Candlestick, this is understandable given that there are not many market participants. which is still in the Christmas and New Year holiday season but based on the CCI indicator which managed to break above the -100 level and above level 0 which indicates that the condition of Buyers is still more dominant than Sellers plus there is a deviation between price movements and the CCI indicator, it seems that in In the near future, USDX will try to test a level above its current price, namely 104.75 as its first target and 104.90 as its second target, but given the low volatility if USDX falls below the 103.72 level, it is very likely that the scenario described earlier will become invalid and cancel itself.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-12-29 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/116511

Technical outlook: The US dollar index slipped through 103.58 lows intraday on Tuesday before finding support again. The index is seen to be trading close to 103.90 at this point in writing as bulls remain inclined to push beyond the 104.40-50 interim resistance zone. Prices are poised to produce a sharp bullish breakout as long as 103.00 interim support holds well. The US dollar index reversed from 114.70 highs earlier to produce a corrective drop. The three-wave decline might have terminated around 103.00 levels as seen on the 4H chart here. The index rallied through 104.50 thereafter, before getting range bound. It could be into its last phase of consolidation as bulls remain in control ahead of 103.00. The US dollar index is likely to touch 105.50 and 107.00, taking out interim resistances as projected on the chart. If the corrective drop is complete at 103.00, prices would resume an uptrend and rise above 114.70 in the next few weeks. Alternatively, the index might find resistance around the 110.00-50 zone and turn lower again. Trading plan: Potential rally against 103.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306531

USD/CAD grinds near intraday high after bouncing off three-week low. US Dollar rebound, easing optimism over China’s Covid updates weigh on Oil price. Holiday season, light calendar restricts immediate moves but firmer US Treasury yields keep USD/CAD buyers hopeful. USD/CAD prints mild gains around 1.3530 as bulls and bears jostle during the first positive day for the Loonie pair in three. The US Dollar rebound and the recent pullback in the Oil prices could be linked to the quote’s recovery. However, the holiday mood and a light calendar, not to forget fewer macros, keep the USD/CAD traders in check. US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to defend recent gains around 104.25, fading the bounce off a one-week low, amid sluggish US Treasury bond yields. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies also justifies the recently mixed US data, as well as mixed concerns surrounding the Fed’s next moves. Even so, receding fears of the US recession and easing optimism surrounding China’s Covid conditions seem to keep the DXY bulls hopeful. Recently, a Researcher from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Economic Research Department ruled out odds favoring the US economic slowdown for at least the upcoming two quarters. That said, US Good Trade Balance for November improved to $-83.3B versus $98.8B prior but the US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for October dropped to 8.6% YoY versus 9.7% expected and 10.4% previous readings. In the last week, mixed readings of the US inflation and growth figures raised doubts about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish move, especially after the US central bank appeared cautiously optimistic in its latest monetary policy meeting. On a different page, China announced multiple measures to open national and international boundaries in a rush to convey the easing of COVID-19 fears. However, the US doubts the moves and probes the risk-on mood. The dragon nation initially ruled out the quarantine requirement for inbound travelers before stating that the nation will resume citizens' applications for ordinary passports for tourism and visits abroad from January 8, 2023. Even so, a US Official mentioned, per Reuters, that the US government may impose new COVID-19 measures on travelers to the United States from China over concerns about the "lack of transparent data" coming from Beijing. Against this backdrop, the US Treasury yields remain stable while the stock futures print mild gains and the WTI crude oil extends the previous day’s pullback from a three-week high, down 0.22% intraday near $79.60 at the latest. Given the market’s actions, as well as the light calendar and no major macros, the USD/CAD is likely to remain sidelined. It should be noted that the US Pending Home Sales for November which holds the market consensus of 0.6% versus -4.6% previous readings, will decorate the calendar. Technical analysis USD/CAD recovers from the 200-SMA, around 1.3500 by the press time, as the RSI (14) defends recovery from the oversold territory. Also supporting the Loonie pair’s rebound is the receding strength of the bearish MACD signals. As a result, the USD/CAD rebound is likely to approach the 1.3570 resistance confluence including the one-week-old descending resistance line, as well as the previous support line from November 15.

US Dollar Index retreats from intraday high, struggles to defend DXY bulls after snapping two-day downtrend. San Francisco Fed’s Researcher rules out US recession, mixed data probe hawkish Fed concerns. Receding optimism for China unlock announcements jostle with boring performance of yields to restrict DXY moves. US Dollar Index (DXY) takes offers to reverse the early day gains around 104.20 as European traders brace for Wednesday’s work amid the holiday mood. The sluggish markets also take clues from the lack of major data/events, as well as mixed concerns surrounding China and the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, receding hopes of the US economic slowdown keeps DXY bulls hopeful. Earlier in the day, a Researcher from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Economic Research Department ruled out odds favoring the US economic slowdown for at least the upcoming two quarters. Talking about the day, Monday’s US economic releases mentioned that the Good Trade Balance for November improved to $-83.3B versus $98.8B prior. However, the US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for October dropped to 8.6% YoY versus 9.7% expected and 10.4% previous readings. Elsewhere, the US raised doubts about China’s latest Covid-linked moves and probes the risk-on mood. The dragon nation initially ruled out the quarantine requirement for inbound travelers before stating that the nation will resume citizens' applications for ordinary passports for tourism and visits abroad from January 8, 2023. Even so, a US Official mentioned, per Reuters, that the US government may impose new COVID-19 measures on travelers to the United States from China over concerns about the "lack of transparent data" coming from Beijing. While portraying the mood, the US Treasury yields remain stable while the stock futures print mild gains. Moving on, a light calendar and lack of major macros may allow the DXY traders to pare recent gains. That said, the US Pending Home Sales for November which holds the market consensus of 0.6% versus -4.6% previous readings will decorate the calendar and should be eyed amid a lack of major data/events for fresh impulse. Even so, major attention will be on the concerns surrounding Fed and China, not to forget the US Treasury bond yields. Technical analysis Despite the latest failure to defend DXY bulls, Tuesday’s bullish Doji candlestick suggests further recovery unless the quote drops back below the recent low of 103.88.    

Yesterday, Russia finally responded to the EU’s price cap on its oil exports, saying that they will simply stop exporting their oil to parties that ‘directly or indirectly use the mechanism of setting a price cap’. Crude Oil The latter announcement gave a minor boost to crude oil yesterday, but the barrel of American crude remained offered into the 50-DMA, near $81.60pb, and the price is back below the $80pb this morning. BUT, an eventual decrease in Russian oil supply gives support to the oil bulls’ in the medium run, along with other factors as China reopening and cold winter in America. China reopening news IMPORTANT to note: If the Chinese reopening story is positive for oil and commodity prices - and for the massively battered Chinese stocks, it’s bad news for global inflation. This is why we don’t see the US stocks gain on China reopening news, but we rather see them under a decent pressure, as the surge in Chinese demand will certainly boost inflation through higher energy and commodity prices. Inflation And in response to higher inflation, the central banks will continue hiking rates. As a result, the sovereign bond yields are higher, the stocks are lower, while the US dollar is mixed. Apple And Tesla Apple is down to lowest levels since summer 2021, and Tesla’s deep dive deepens by the day. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:44 Russians won't sell oil to parties involved in price cap 3:32 China reopening story is not all rosy! 6:03 Bitcoin hash rate rings alarm bell 7:30 Tesla races to the bottom Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Russia #oil #ban #China #Covid #reopening #crudeoil #rally #inflation #expectations #USD #EUR #AUD #XAU #Bitcoin #Apple #Amazon #Tesla #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  

The US Leading Index is pointing to the possibility of a bigger Dollar fall in 2023 than expected, Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, reports. An old-school indicator warning of trouble ahead for the Dollar  “I have plotted the 6-month change in the Leading Index against quarterly GDP since the late 1970s. The 6-month change in the index, at -4.4, is clearly in territory that in the past has preceded the economy slipping into recession at some point in the next two or three quarters.” “The Dollar has risen a long way since 2008 as the US economy has outperformed Europe, and while currency markets are all about relative growth, relative monetary policy and other relative measures, a US recession in 2023 would see the Dollar fall further than anyone expects, particularly if Santa Claus were to find a way to give us peace on earth at some point next year.”

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.50 lows again intraday on Wednesday before finding support. The index produced a rally towards 104.20 thereafter, as bulls came back strong in control. It is seen to be trading close to the 104.05 levels at this point in writing as bulls prepare for the next near-term target around 105.50 and 107.00 respectively. The US dollar index has been consolidating within a contracting triangle since printing lows around the 103.00 mark as seen on the 4H chart. Prices did manage to rally through the 104.40 levels before drifting sideways and it looks like the last wave could terminate ahead of the 103.50 mark. Once complete, prices could produce a bullish breakout and a push through 104.50 will be confirmed. The US dollar index seems to have completed its larger degree corrective drop, which began from the 114.70 levels, around 103.00 mark recently. If the above holds well, prices will stay above 103.00 and continue pushing higher towards 114.70 and beyond. Alternatively, prices could find resistance at 110.00-50 range before reversing lower again. Trading plan: Potential rally against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 05:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306677

USD/CAD Strong Rebound! The USD/CAD pair failed to stay below the 1.3504 historical level or to stabilize below the 1.3495 Tuesday's low signaling exhausted sellers. After dropping below the uptrend line, the price action signaled that the uptrend ended and that the sellers could take the lead. Now, it has turned to the upside trying to retest the broken uptrend line which represents an upside obstacle (downside obstacle turned into an upside obstacle). It climbed as much as 1.3613 yesterday and now it has dropped again below the uptrend line. As long as it stays below yesterday's high and under the uptrend line, USD/CAD could drop again. USD/CAD Trading Conclusion! The uptrend line and the 1.3613 represent upside obstacles. USD/CAD could drop again as long as it's located below these levels. Still, only dropping below the 1.3495 former low validates a deeper drop. Jumping above the uptrend line and above 1.3613 indicates further growth.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-12-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306699

USD/CAD renews intraday low while paring the biggest daily jump in a fortnight. Convergence of 100-SMA, previous support line from mid-November challenge upside moves. 200-SMA appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. USD/CAD takes offers to refresh intraday low around 1.3580 as it pares the biggest daily gains in two weeks heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair extends the day-start pullback from the 1.3615 resistance confluence despite bullish MACD signals. That said, the 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA) joins the support-turned-resistance line from November 15 to highlight the 1.3615 level as the key hurdle. Given the quote’s recent pullback from the stated resistance, a pullback towards the mid-December swing low near 1.3520 can’t be ruled out. However, the 200-SMA level of 1.3507 and the 1.3500 round figure could challenge the USD/CAD bears afterward. In a case where the Loonie pair drops below the 1.3500 round figure, the monthly low of 1.3385 will be in the spotlight. Alternatively, recovery moves need to portray successful trading beyond the 1.3615 key resistance to convince the USD/CAD buyers. Even so, a one-week-old descending trend line near 1.3655 could challenge the quote’s further upside before directing the bulls toward the monthly peak of 1.3705. To sum up, the USD/CAD pair is likely to extend the latest weakness but the room towards the south appears limited. USD/CAD: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

Technical outlook: The US dollar index slipped through the 103.56 lows during the New York session on Thursday holding above its range low at 103.50. The index is seen to be trading close to the 103.65 mark at this point of writing as bulls are seemed to be poised to hold prices above the 103.40-50 range. A break above 104.40 is still required to confirm a bullish breakout though. The US dollar index might have terminated its last wave of the sideways consolidation at the 103.56 mark. If it is correct, prices would stay above 103.50 and go higher above 104.50 to break on the north side. Please note that a minimum projected target is 105.50 and 107.00 thereafter. Bulls remain poised to come back in control and hold prices above the 103.00 mark. Also, note that the larger degree corrective drop from 114.70 looks complete at 103.00. If the structure holds well, bulls will remain inclined to push prices towards 114.70 and further, and complete its two-year rally that began from the 89.50 level. Either way, we can expect a rally from here at least towards 107.00 and 110.50, if not further. Trading plan: Potential rally against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 04:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306813

USD/CAD is displaying a sideways profile around 1.3550 as investors are avoiding building positions amid the festive season. Federal Reserve might continue its hawkish policy as the street sees inflation well above 3% in CY2023. The US Dollar witnessed selling pressure after the release of additions in the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. USD/CAD is likely to continue its rangebound structure amid the unavailability of any major economic event. USD/CAD is displaying a sideways performance in the early European session as investors are hesitating in building positions ahead of the long weekend. The Loonie asset is displaying a lackluster performance in a narrow range around 1.3550 amid indecisiveness in the global markets towards inflation projections for CY2023. The risk-perceived currencies are failing to capitalize on the improved risk appetite of investors after Thursday’s action. S&P500 displayed a firmer recovery after investors saw value-buying in the equities domain of the United States. In early Friday, S&P500 futures are holding their Thursday gains but are failing to extend their recovery further. It seems that investors are preferring to go light in CY2023 as volatility could heat up. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to extend its gains above the immediate resistance of 103.70 after a recovery attempt from 103.50. The USD Index has been oscillating in a bounded range of 103.50-104.60 since Monday. Meanwhile, caution in the market is supporting the 10-year US Treasury yields. The return in 10-year US Treasury bonds is holding above 3.83%. A rise in weekly jobless claims impacted the US Dollar The US Dollar Index witnessed selling pressure on Thursday after the United States Department of Labor (DoL) reported an increase in the number of individuals applying for jobless claims for the very first time. The economic data landed at 225K for the week ending December 23, higher than the former release of 216K. The impact of higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has forced the firms to pause the recruitment process. Firms have halted the employment creation process as the street sees bleak economic growth amid expectations of the continuation of extremely hawkish monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. This led to a surge in jobless claims. Street sees no achievement of the Fed’s 2% inflation target in 2023 In CY2022, the agenda of the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and his teammates has remained the achievement of price stability. Federal Reserve policymakers continuously hiked interest rates to squeeze the supply of the US Dollar into the economy. No doubt, the central bank managed to drag the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) from its peak of 9.1% but the road to recovery is far from over. Economists at TD Securities are of the view that inflation in the United States will remain well above 3% by the end of Q4 2023. “We look for headline inflation to end the year at a robust 7.1% YoY pace in Q4, but to slow to 3.1% in Q4 2023. We also forecast Core CPI inflation to end the year at a still-high 6.0% but to decelerate to 3.3% in Q4 2023.” Also, in the opinion of economists at Deutsche Bank “Headline inflation seems to have already peaked in the United States.” However, it will still be well above the target set by the Fed in 2023. Oil price struggles to recapture $80.00 China’s Covid-19 status is getting vulnerable each day as the number of infections are rising dramatically.  Also, death numbers are scaling higher as medical facilities are unable to address each infected individual. This has also forced various nations to demand negative Covid reports of arrivals from China in order to safeguard themselves from the pandemic. The street is in a dilemma whether to support oil prices by considering optimism over the reopening of the Chinese economy or to consider the short-term pain due to supply chain disruptions. The oil price has rebounded after dropping to near $77.00 but is struggling to recapture the crucial hurdle of $80.00. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading oil exporter to the United States and higher oil prices might support the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD technical outlook USD/CAD has shifted its auction profile below the upward-sloping trendline placed from November 16 low at 1.3228 on a four-hour scale. The Loonie asset is hovering below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.3550. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range. A slippage of the momentum oscillator inside the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 will trigger a bearish momentum.

Markets worth watching US stock indices: US500, US100 There is an ongoing debate about the relationship between stock markets and inflation. Stocks are holding instruments covered by the real assets of the companies that issued them. Because inflation reflects increase in the prices of goods and services, should eventually translate into revenues of companies selling these goods and services. From this perspective, stocks can be seen as a hedge against inflation. However, looking at history, we can confidently say that there is no linear relationship between company earnings and stock prices. So-called the price-to-sales ratio can fluctuate significantly for a number of reasons. After first, even if higher prices translate into higher revenues, costs can increase in even faster pace. A period of high inflation creates a lot of uncertainty and some companies can not be able to maintain the current profit margin. Second, the stock market is always trying discount the future. And if that discounting is done using higher rates interest rates - typical of higher inflation - the present value of future gains will be lower. Because periods of high inflation in the US are rare and far apart in time, there is no such thing confirmed relationship. The S&P 500 hit a ten-year low in October 1974, just before the peak of inflation that year. However, the markets were much more overvalued back then - the index fell from the peak (in 1973) to the trough of 50%, and the price-earnings ratio was below 8 - almost 3 times lower than today. Moreover, the Fed has started to cut interest rates in November 1974, thus supporting the bull rally. Precious metals: GOLD, SILVER Commodities are considered a leading indicator of inflation as the prices of goods and even services are in highly dependent on raw material costs. Therefore, there is a belief that raw materials are a good hedge against inflation, and the first example that comes to mind is gold. Is it really so? Gold is an excellent diversifier for an investment portfolio due to its low and even negative correlation with other asset classes. But what about inflation? Gold tends to respond to relative dollar strength as well as changes in bond yields. We can see a very strong negative correlation between gold price changes and profitability bonds in the long term. Therefore, we are dealing with a relatively weak sentyment against gold in an environment of the highest inflation in the US in 40 years. Of course, gold can too respond to other risk factors, such as natural disasters or war, which the world unfortunately experienced this year, which for a short time pushed gold prices to historical levels maxima. As mentioned earlier, the key factors for the price of gold are changes in the level yields and valuation of the dollar. Further changes are the most important for the dollar and bond yields Fed interest rates. The dollar already seems to be very overbought, especially if we will look at historical standards and this could be an opportunity for gold. Of course, gold is still there relatively expensive in nominal terms, but high bond yields led to a significant drop in gold prices from near historical highs. Moreover, correcting prices for inflation, gold is not extremely expensive compared to the 1970s or even 1970s 2011. It is also worth mentioning that gold often retains its value during periods of recession, especially when compared to more volatile assets such as stocks.

The Fed and central banks around the world have been raising interest rates to fight soaring inflation stemming from supply chain problems related to the COVID-19 pandemic and an energy crisis related to oil producer Russia's Ukraine invasion. As a result, all three major averages registered their biggest one-year percentage declines since the 2008 financial crisis. Along with domestic worries, investors around the world have also been monitoring China, the world's second biggest economy, for signs of weakness. The dollar was on track to record its best year since 2015 on Friday on the last trading day of the year, dominated by Federal Reserve rate hikes and fears of a sharp slowdown in global growth. Since March, the Fed has raised interest rates by a total of 425 basis points in an attempt to stem rising inflation. The last trading week of the year is behind us. How the major currency pairs fared. GBP/USD The cable pair ended the last week of the year in bullish sentiment. The week the GBP/USD pair started trading below $1.21 at 1.2050. The pair traded mostly in the 1.20-1.21 range. The highest level of the pair reached the level above the upper limit of the crossbody, i.e. 1.2113. The highest was at 1.2003 and came before the weekly high. The British pound ended 2022 nearly 11% lower at $1.2, its worst year since the Brexit vote in 2016, amid a general cautious mood regarding the economic outlook for 2023, political uncertainty, and as a hawkish Fed sent the USD higher. The pound recovered since then after Rishi Sunak became the new prime minister but remains under heavy pressure, as the recession is looming while the Bank of England appears more dovish compared with its peers. Read next: ESG - Business Management For The Common Good| FXMAG.COM  EUR/USD EUR/USD traded above 1.06 but below 1.07. The pair started the week at 1.0630 and ended at 1.0712. The highest level reached at the end of the trade exceeding 1.07. The lowest level was still above 1.06 - 1.0611. AUD/USD The Australian pair, similarly to the euro pair, managed to break the upper level of resistance, which was at the level of 0.67. Thus, the couple ended the week on the highest level. The lowest level was at the beginning of the week (0.6699). Then the pair received support from information from China and thus grew above 0.67. USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair traded mostly around 132. It peaked above 132 at 134.420 and the low was below 131 (130.8210). The pair ended the last week of the year at 131.1050 The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is considering raising its January inflation forecast to show price growth close to its 2% target for fiscal years 2023 and 2024, the Nikkei reported on Saturday. This month, the BOJ launches an extension of its 10-year yield caps, which is officially intended to straighten out bond market disruptions, but some analysts see them as a way out of ultra-loose monetary easing. Japan's core consumer prices excluding fresh food in November hit their highest since 1981, according to last week's government data. The BOJ will release its latest quarterly growth and price forecasts after its next policy meeting on Jan. 17-18. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com, dailyfx.com

On the 4th hour chart looks like #USDX move inside Bearish Pitchfork channel where in the near future #USDX will try to break below the 103.36 level. If this level is successfully broken, USDX will potentially continue its decline to the 103.02 level but if it turns out that on its way to the target levels, a significant correction suddenly occurs to break above the level. 104.07, it is certain that the reduction scenario described earlier will become invalid and cancel itself.   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-03 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/116741

Technical outlook: The US dollar index has dropped to 103.12, inching closer to the recent swing low at 103.07. The drop between 104.50 and 103.12 looks corrective. Until prices stay above 103.12, we expect the instrument to rally towards 107.00 and the 110.00-50 range going forward. The index is seen to be trading at 103.12 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to come back in control soon. The US dollar index has completed a three-wave drop at 103.07, which had begun from the 114.70 highs earlier. If the above larger-degree wave structure holds well, the next move could be higher from here with the index pushing above 114.70 in the next several weeks. A push through 104.50 would open the door to test 105.50 and 107.00 in the near term. Alternatively, if the drop from 114.70 needs to unfold further lower below 103.00, prices would find resistance around 107.00 and the 110.00-50 range before the bears are back in control. Either way, prices are expected to produce a rally from current levels at least towards 107.00 and the 110.00-50 range. A break above 103.70 would be welcomed by the bulls. Trading idea: Potential rally against 103.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 07:00 2023-01-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306974

USD/CAD reverses from intraday low, probes the previous daily loss. Convergence of 200-SMA, three-day-old ascending trend line restricts immediate downside. Bulls remain off the table unless crossing the previous support line from November. Downbeat RSI line, sustained trading below key trend line, SMA favor sellers. USD/CAD takes a U-turn from the intraday low while picking up bids to 1.3560 amid the holiday-thinned trading session on Monday. In doing so, the Loonie pair bounces off the convergence of the 200-SMA and an upward-sloping support line from the last Wednesday. That said, the quote’s failure to stay beyond the support-turned-resistance line from November 15, following the previous week’s bounce off the 200-SMA, joins sustained trading below the 50-SMA to keep USD/CAD sellers hopeful. As a result, the Loonie pair is likely to conquer the 1.3520 support level and aim for the 1.3500 round figure. However, the double bottom around 1.3485, marked in the last week, will be crucial for the USD/CAD bears to keep the reins. Following that, the previous monthly low of around 1.3385 could lure the pair sellers ahead of November’s bottom surrounding 1.3225. Meanwhile, the pair’s recovery moves could aim for the weekly resistance line, around 1.3570, before poking the 50-SMA level surrounding 1.3580. Though, successful trading beyond the 1.5-month-old support-turned-resistance line, close to 1.3610 at the latest, becomes necessary for the USD/CAD bulls to retake control. Overall, USD/CAD is likely to remain on the bear’s radar unless even as the downside room is limited. USD/CAD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected    

Summary:  Today, we look at how markets closed last year, noting the weakening of the US dollar in to year-end even as US treasury yields backed up into year end. Despite those higher yields, USDJPY trades near multi-month lows in anticipation of the Bank of Japan and the Fed moving in opposite directions with their policy for the balance of this year. Elsewhere, we dive into commodity positioning and the energy market as mild weather continues to drive gas and power prices down in Europe while crude oil actually rallied. A look at energy stories to track this year and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com. Source: Podcast: First weeks of a New Year often pivotal | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, notes that EUR/USD stays near 6-month highs to start the new year and the US Dollar Index holds near six-month lows Eurozone is facing a recession "USD weakness remains the dominating subject on the FX market. Because the market still does not believe the Fed’s affirmations that it will not cut the key rate. It has revised its expectations a little since the last FOMC meeting, but not substantially." "This mistrust must not surprise, as the FOMC members have been incorrect with their forecasts too many times in the past. I still remember very clearly their – in retrospect – absurd dots from 2009 and the following years." Read next: Twitter Did Not Pay $136,260 Rent, Microsoft Reported Its Worst Quarterly Results In Years| FXMAG.COM "In contrast all those who celebrated New Year’s eve in a T-shirt in Europe are likely to feel less concerned about a shortage of gas. This factor that had been putting pressure on the euro, which had already eased in Q4, is thus disappearing even more quickly." "Of course, the Eurozone is facing a recession. However, if this is one that is “only” due to a tightening of monetary policy it will not be as damaging for the EUR exchange rates as a recession caused by a shortage of gas would have been." "And in comparison to the US where the real economy is having to deal with a much more aggressive Fed monetary policy the FX market seems to consider the ECB's policy as not that unattractive any longer." "Our colleagues in macro research like to refer to the long-term risks of inflation of the more cautious ECB interest rate policy. These dangers are not likely to be concrete enough for the FX market yet. It will take some time yet before it prices these in. I am not sure whether that will become an issue this year or whether that is more likely to become the subject of my outlook for 2024."

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.12 lows on Monday before finding support. The index tested its recent swing low but did not break below 103.07, holding the bullish structure intact. It is seen to be trading close to 103.25 at this point in writing as the bulls remain poised to resume higher towards 105.50 and 107.00 levels respectively in the near term. The US dollar index seems to have also completed its larger-degree downswing, which began from the 114.70 highs earlier. The corrective wave might have terminated just ahead of 103.00 as the bulls are now looking to come back in control. A push above 104.50 will confirm that a higher low is in place at 103.12 and that prices are looking higher from here. The US dollar index might be looking to resume its larger-degree upswing and push beyond the 114.70 highs in the next few weeks. Alternatively, if the drop from 114.70 is still incomplete, prices could pull back and find resistance around 107.00 and 110.00-50. The bears might come back in control thereafter and drag prices below 103.00. Either way, we expect a pullback rally at least in the near term. Trading idea: A potential rally against 103.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 04:00 2023-01-31 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307089

USD/CAD has displayed an A-shape sell-off as investors have shrugged off China’s Covid-inspired uncertainty. FOMC minutes will provide cues about the monetary policy outlook for CY2023. The Loonie bulls are likely to dance to the tunes of Canada’s employment data. The USD/CAD pair has displayed a perpendicular downside move after testing the previous week’s high around 1.3606 in the early Asian session. The Lonnie asset has dropped vigorously to near 1.3545 and is expected to extend its downside journey as the risk-averse theme has lost its traction. A value-buying context in the S&P500 futures has made the market mood cheerful in the Asian session. Also, risk-perceived currencies have gained positive traction. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways after a sheer drop to near 103.15. The USD index is hovering near its crucial support, therefore, sheer volatility is expected from the counter ahead. Investors are shifting their focus toward the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will release on Thursday, as it will disclose the rationale behind hiking the interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) and pushing them to 4.25%-4.50%. Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell has already cleared that interest rates will peak around 5.1%. Inflationary pressures in the United States are extremely stubborn, therefore, investors should expect the continuation of higher interest rates straight to the end of CY2023. Meanwhile, Loonie investors are awaiting the release of Friday’s employment data. The Bank of Canada (BoC) may continue facing troubles as wage prices are escalating in the economy. Higher employment bills will keep inflation at elevated levels and may force BOC Governor Tiff Macklem to tighten policy further. On the oil front, oil price are struggling to sustain above $80.00 as the street is expecting an increase in the number of Covid-19 infections ahead. Analysts at Capital Economics have warned that "China is entering the most dangerous weeks of the pandemic".

Summary:  Today, we remind traders that the market action doesn't really start for much of global liquidity until today's opening of UK and US markets, with Japan not even set to start trading until tomorrow. This makes the JPY volatility in particularly difficult to interpret in thin markets. Most of the USD move that has unfolded this morning did so during and after the recording of this podcast, but we suggest that it is important to wait for the US data on Friday for a firmer sense of where the market stands on the US dollar and other markets, including gold. Today we also discuss the important year ahead for Tesla, with more products and platforms in the mix than at any time in its history, contrasting its outlook with that of Volkswagen. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Read next:The Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) Will Impose A Fine Of $2.2 Million On Tesla Inc| FXMAG.COM If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source:Podcast: 2023 really starts today and tomorrow | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

The New Year started with the IMF Chief Georgieva warning that the global economy faces ‘a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind’. German PMI German PMI data pointed at a faster than expected contraction in manufacturing activity in December, while the European manufacturing PMI came in at 47.8, in line with expectations. European markets This being said, trading in European markets was rather optimistic on the first trading day of the year, as European nat gas futures eased on mild weather. Forex The US dollar index kicked off the year on a subdued note, letting the dollar-yen tip a toe below the 130 mark. The EURUSD however, couldn’t build on gains above the 1.07 mark, while Cable remained steady-ish a touch above its 200-DMA, which stands near 1.2030 level. Gold Gold jumped to $1843 per ounce despite the positive pressure on the yields recently, while oil remained offered into the 50-DMA, which stands a touch below the $81 per barrel mark. Bitcoin Trading in Bitcoin remains boring. US data and OPEC On the economic data front, we will watch FOMC minutes, US jobs data, and OPEC meeting this week. EV On individual stocks front, carmakers announce their Q4 deliveries. Tesla hit a fresh record, but the number of cars delivered last quarter fell short of expectations, while Rivian reportedly doubled production in the final quarter of 2022 to hit its 25’000 yearly target. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:17 IMF warns that 2023 could be tougher than 2022 1:31 Chinese data disappoint 2:42 But European stocks remain bid 4:41 FOMC minutes & US jobs will give direction 6:07 US crude tests 50-DMA resistance 7:33 Tesla's record Q4 deliveries fall short of expectations Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #HappyNewYear #2023 #IMF #warning #economic #recession #China #Covid #energy #crisis #USD #EUR #JPY #Bitcoin #XAU #Tesla #Rivian #deliveries #FOMC #minutes #OPEC #US #jobs #data #NFP #DAX #CAC #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The US dollar appreciated, mainly due to the minutes from the December meeting of the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points last month after four consecutive increases of 75 basis points in a year, but said it may have to keep interest rates higher for longer to bring inflation under control. Minutes from the December Fed meeting are due to be released on Wednesday, with investors looking for clues as to what rate path is likely to be taken in 2023. The market seems to be struggling to interpret the change in China's Covid-19 strategy. On the one hand, it is predicted that it is likely to unleash the world's second largest economy and its associated supply chains. The Chinese data remains soft and the Caixin manufacturing PMI released today came in with a narrow miss. In December it was 49.0 instead of 49.1 forecast and 49.4 earlier. Moreover, there was a desire from the Chinese side for better relations with the US after their foreign minister said they would look for more open channels of communication. It is worth noting, however, that the exchanges point to a risky market environment, which usually makes it difficult for the US dollar to find demand. USD/JPY The Japanese yen continued to strengthen today with USD/JPY dipping below 130 for the first time since June last year. It has now returned to trading above 130 and is close to 131. The yen, which hit a seven-month high during the Asian trading hours, was recently trading low at 130.45 to the dollar. The pair's decline was mainly driven by a new Japanese yen buying spurt as US equities futures fell at the open and bolstered safe-haven inflows into the yen. Speculation that the BoJ was about to start moving away from its very lax policy flared up in December when the central bank extended the yield cap on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGB). This was further reinforced by the Nikkei report on Saturday. Read next: The Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) Will Impose A Fine Of $2.2 Million On Tesla Inc| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD GBP/USD drops below the key 1.2000 level for the first time in 4 weeks as the dollar index recovers. Today's morning drop in GBPUSD is due to the recovering dollar index. The risk-positive market environment does not appear to be helping sterling find support so far. As noted above, the decline is attributable to the stronger dollar and not to UK-specific factors, which may also have exaggerated the impact. The UK economy is weighed down by recession fears, high inflation and the cost of living crisis. The Bank of England has raised interest rates nine times since December 2021 to try to bring down inflation, which remains close to a 41-year high. EUR/USD EUR/USD lost traction and fell towards 1.0550 early Tuesday after climbing above 1.0700 on Monday. It's hard to stop the driving force of the pair's recent actions as the market recovers with the US dollar strengthening again. Nevertheless, technical forecasts point to a bearish slope after the sharp decline seen during the European session. Euro still awaits German CPI data release, which may help EUR/USD move towards 1.06. Source: investing.com Read next: New Record For Electric Car Manufacturer - Tesla Deliveries Increased By 40% Year-On-Year| FXMAG.COM AUD/USD The Australian pair fell from above 0.68 to 0.6695 Weaker than expected official Chinese PMI data released over the weekend may have contributed to the decline. The Australian remains supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates later this year as part of its ongoing effort to bring down inflation. Markets are currently divided on whether the RBA will deliver another rate hike in February. Australia's trade balance remains at a record high and the AUD/USD exchange rate weakens due to interest rate differentials, and the domestic economy continues to benefit from this. Source: investing.com Source: dailyfx.com, investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

USD strength weighed on much of the commodities complex yesterday, while milder weather continues to put pressure on natural gas prices Energy - milder weather continues to weigh on gas Energy markets came under significant pressure yesterday, along with the rest of the commodities complex. A stronger USD weighed heavily on markets, while milder weather across much of the Northern Hemisphere has put further downward pressure on prices. ICE Brent fell by more than 4.4% yesterday - its largest daily decline since September. The weakness in the market comes despite the China reopening story, which should be constructive for the demand outlook in the medium to longer term. Although admittedly, rising Chinese covid infections could weigh on demand in the immediate term.   There were also reports that the Chinese government issued 18.99mt of refined product export quotas in the first tranche for 2023, up 46% from the same period last year. This should also be seen as a constructive factor for crude demand in the near term as it should support Chinese refinery runs, particularly at a time when there are concerns over Chinese domestic demand in the immediate term due to rising covid infections. Preliminary OPEC production numbers are starting to come through and a Bloomberg survey estimates that the group’s output in December averaged 29.14MMbbls/d, up 150Mbbls/d MoM. The increase was largely driven by a recovery in output from Nigeria, where production increased by 150Mbbls/d to 1.35MMbbls/d. There were marginal changes amongst other OPEC members. Milder weather across large parts of Europe continues to weigh on natural gas prices. TTF fell by more than 6% yesterday, leaving it to trade just above EUR72/MWh. Milder weather has meant that storage is not drawing as quickly as initially expected. In fact, in recent days we have seen European gas storage increasing. At the moment storage is a little under 84% full compared to a 5-year average of almost 70% for this time of year. The milder weather has eased concerns and it is looking as though the region will make it through this heating season in a comfortable manner.  Concerns also appear to be easing for next winter with the entire TTF forward curve trading below EUR90/MWh. However, there are still clear risks for the market as we move through the year and prices will need to remain elevated in order to ensure the market remains in balance. Metals- Gold climbs to six-month high Gold rose to its highest level in six months as Treasury yields declined. Speculation of the Federal Reserve softening its hawkish stance has supported the non-yielding asset. Any hints from the Fed of an easing in its aggressive hiking cycle should provide further support to prices. Copper prices came under some pressure yesterday following the release of weak manufacturing data from China. Surging Covid-19 cases in China are hurting consumption in the country with fabricators cutting runs or bringing forward Lunar New Year breaks because of sick workers and lower winter demand, according to the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). Operating rates at 21 major copper-rod producers fell to about 60% of capacity last week, the lowest since June, SMM said. For aluminium, the latest data from SMM showed inventories of aluminium ingots increasing for a third consecutive week, totalling 561kt as of 3 January, up 68kt from last Thursday. The data showed inventory accumulation across all eight major markets due to increased arrivals and muted demand during the New Year holiday. Meanwhile, the latest reports suggesting that some Chinese downstream factories have already been closed ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays are raising concerns about more inventory build-up over the coming weeks. Agriculture – Indian sugar output rises The latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) shows that 2022/23 Indian sugar production rose 3.7% YoY to 12.1mt through until 31st December, compared to 11.64mt during the same period last year. The group said that by the end of December, 509 mills were crushing cane, compared to 500 mills at the same time last year. Read this article on THINK TagsUSD strength Sugar OPEC Natural gas Gold China Covid Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The risk-off market mood in global markets has strengthened the US Dollar, A bull cross, represented by the 20-and 50-EMAs at 1.3578, indicates more upside ahead. The RSI (14) has jumped into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which supports the Greenback. The USD/CAD pair has dropped to near 1.3636 in the Asian session after multiple failed attempts of breaking above the critical resistance of 1.3680. The US Dollar Index is delivering a subdued performance as investors are restricting themselves from making potential positions before the release of the United States ISM Manufacturing PMI data. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures are attempting to recover after a two-day sell-off, however, the resilience in recovery is still missing, which indicates that the risk profile is still negative. Investors should note that the trend has turned bullish on a four-hour scale after remaining topsy-turvy for a long period. The Loonie asset is likely to face barricades around the horizontal resistance plotted near the round-level hurdle of 1.3700. A bull cross, represented by the 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.3578, indicates more upside ahead. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has jumped into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates more upside ahead. A decisive break above the December 16 high around 1.3700 will strengthen the US Dollar and will drive the Loonie asset toward October 25 high at 1.3748 and November 3 high at 1.3808. On the contrary, the major could drop to November 23 high at 1.3440 after surrendering the psychological support of 1.3500. Later on, a slippage below 1.3440 will expose the Loonie asset for more downside towards December 5 low at 1.3385. USD/CAD four-hour chart  

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through 104.50 during the New York session on Tuesday as projected before facing resistance. The index has slipped sharply towards the 103.50-60 area as the European sessions opened on Wednesday. The drop could be still considered as a pullback before the bulls are back in control pushing the price towards 105.50 and 107.00 respectively. The US dollar index might have terminated its larger-degree corrective drop at 103.05 as seen on the 4H chart presented here. It further managed to carve a higher low around 103.12 last week before producing a rally of over 120 points. Ideally, the bulls would keep control and push the instrument through 107.00 at least, provided that 103.05 holds well. The short-term wave structure could be described as follows. The first leg higher was completed at 104.50 on Tuesday as the second wave retraces back to the 103.50-60 zone. If the above structure holds well, prices would stay above 103.05 and continue pushing higher as the third wave unfolds. Only a break below 103.00 would nullify the above bullish structure. Trading idea: Potential bullish move against 102.00 Good luck!       Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307296

The start of the year 2023 marked a new paradox for gold. It grew against the background of the strengthening U.S. dollar at the auction on January 3 and continued to rally when the USD retreated. Investors' interest in the precious metal seems so great that they stopped paying attention to the dynamics of the USD index. However, based on a couple of days, it is too early to draw conclusions because XAUUSD now has another ally—the U.S. Treasury bonds. Economic outlook Expectations of a recession in the United States and China's difficult exit from the zero-COVID policy increase the demand for safe-haven assets. Debt yields are falling as prices rise. Real rates are also falling with anchored inflation expectations, reducing the cost of holding gold in an ETF and helping it continue its rally towards at least $1,900 an ounce. Dynamics of gold and U.S. bond yields The combination of geopolitical risks remaining high, fears of an approaching global recession and a slowdown in the rate of monetary restriction by the Fed is creating a tailwind for gold. The armed conflict in Ukraine is unlikely to end in the next 6–12 months, the global economy is less firmly on its feet than in 2022, and central banks are well aware that raising rates as aggressively as last year means exacerbating the recession. The Fed's monetary policy blocked gold's oxygen in 2022 If the Fed's monetary policy blocked gold's oxygen in 2022, it could push it to new heights in 2023. Compare that to +425 bps to the Fed Funds rate last year and the expected +75–100 bps this year. In addition, the markets continue to expect a "dovish" reversal when borrowing costs start to decline after numerous acts of raising them. Let's not discount the potential increase in investment demand for a physical asset. The outflow of capital from ETFs has good opportunities to reverse. The increase in stocks of specialized exchange-traded funds is a "bullish" factor for XAUUSD. So is rising demand for the precious metal from central banks. In the third quarter, they increased their purchases to a record 400 tons, and they do not seem to be going to stop. Thus, fans of gold are full of optimism. However, there are risks that things will not go according to their plan. If the U.S. labor market remains strong and inflation suddenly picks up after several months of slowdown, the dollar will rise from the ashes, damaging the precious metal's reputation. In this respect, the December employment and consumer price data releases are a test for XAUUSD. They may trigger a short-term pullback, although the upward trend is likely to remain in place. Technically, long positions formed on the rebound from the fair value of $1,795 per ounce are now paying off. At the same time, the inability of gold to overcome the $1,856 and $1,875 pivot points or its return below the support at $1,850 are the signs of "bulls' weakness and the reason for partial profit taking or reversal.     Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-09 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331439

Technical outlook: The US dollar index is forming a potential low around the 103.50-60 zone after reversing from 104.50 early this week. The index is seen to be trading close to 104.00 at this point in writing as the bulls are looking poised to come back in control. Prices are expected to rally towards 105.50 and to 107.00 in the near term. The 103.00-05 handle should remain intact for the bullish outlook to hold. The US dollar index seems to have terminated its larger-degree corrective drop, which began from the 114.70 highs earlier to 103.05 recently. Furthermore, a higher high has also been carved around 103.12 last week of December 2022. A high probability remains for a continued rally from here towards 107.00 and up to the 110.00-50 zone at the most. The US dollar index has further unfolded its lower-degree upswing between 103.12 and 104.50 respectively. The drop to 103.50-60 thereafter is seen as a retracement/pullback, which looks complete. If the above structure holds well, the next move should be higher towards 105.50 and 107.00 in the near term. We will review the trend around 107.00 and decide on the next move. Trading idea: Potential rally towards 107.00 against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307427

USD/CAD defends 100-day SMA and rebounds from a one-month low touched on Thursday. Looming recession risks weigh on investors’ sentiment and benefit the safe-haven greenback. An uptick in oil prices could underpin the Loonie and cap any meaningful gains for the major. The USD/CAD pair attracts some buyers in the vicinity of the 100-day SMA support and stages a modest bounce from a one-month low touched earlier this Thursday. The pair sticks to its intraday recovery gains through the early European session and is currently placed just above the 1.3500 psychological mark. A softer risk tone assists the safe-haven US Dollar to regain some positive traction, which, in turn, is seen pushing the USD/CAD pair higher. Despite the easing of strict COVID-19 curbs in China, concerns about a deeper global economic downturn continue to weigh on investors' sentiment and keep a lid on any optimism in the markets. That said, a combination of factors might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap the upside for the major, at least for the time being. Read next:Exxon And Chevron Abandon The Global Market And Focus On The Americas| FXMAG.COM The minutes of the December FOMC policy meeting showed that officials unanimously supported raising borrowing costs at a slower pace. The prospect for smaller rate hikes by the Fed is reinforced by the fact that the US Treasury bond yields remain within the striking distance of a three-week low touched on Wednesday. This should act as a headwind for the USD. Apart from this, an uptick in crude oil prices might underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and warrants caution for the USD/CAD bulls. Traders now look to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, oil price dynamics could contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities. The focus, however, remains on monthly employment details from the US and Canada, due on Friday.

USD/CAD drops to the lowest levels in one month as bears keep the reins. China reopening, challenges for Fed hawks underpin risk-on mood. Oil price grinds higher amid softer US Dollar, hopes of more energy demand from China. Upbeat Canada jobs report versus mixed US data adds strength to the bearish moves. USD/CAD bears occupy the driver’s seat as the Loonie pair slides to the lowest levels in a month heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the quote takes clues from the market’s upbeat sentiment, as well as firmer prices of Canada’s main export item WTI crude oil. That said, WTI crude oil buyers poke $75.00 amid expectations that the China-inspired global optimism could tame the recession fears and inflate the energy demand. Also likely to have favored the black gold prices could be the downbeat US Dollar and geopolitical fears surrounding Russia. Elsewhere, China’s reopening of the international borders after a three-year blockage bolstered the market’s optimism. Also favoring the risk appetite could be comments from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Official who hinted at robust growth expectations from the dragon nation. Additionally favoring the USD/CAD bears could be the challenge for the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks, especially after the latest US data.  On Friday, United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 223,000 in December compared to the market expectations of 200,000 and November's increase of 256,000 (revised from 263,000). Further details of the US December jobs report revealed that the Unemployment Rate declined to 3.5% from 3.6% in November and 3.7% expected. More importantly, the Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December versus 0.4% prior while the YoY figures eased to 4.6% from 4.8% in November. Further, US ISM Services PMI slumped to the lowest levels in 31 months while suggesting a contraction in activities with 49.6 figures for December, versus the market expectations of 55 and 56.5 marked in November. On the same line, US Factory Orders also slumped, falling 1.8% in November after gaining 0.4% in October. On the other hand, Canada’s Net Change in Employment rose by 104K in December versus 8K expected and 10.1K prior while the Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.0% during the stated month, compared to 5.2% market forecasts and 5.1% previous readings. Despite the mixed readings of the key US data, Atlanta Federal Reserve bank president Raphael Bostic stated that the US economy is definitely slowing, which in turn drowned the key US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 16 basis points (bps) to 3.56%, the lowest levels in three weeks, whereas the US Dollar Index (DXY) marked the biggest daily slump since November 11. Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed with notable gains and helps the S&P 500 futures to remain firmer, which in turn exerts downside pressure on the US Dollar and favors Oil prices. Moving on, Thursday’s US inflation data will be crucial for the USD/CAD pair traders while today’s Canadian Building Permits and Tuesday’s speech from Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem could offer intermediate directions. Technical analysis A clear downside break of the 100-DMA, around 1.3480 by the press time, directs the USD/CAD bears towards the 1.3230-25 support zone comprising a seven-month-old ascending trend line and multiple levels marked since July 2022.

The Canadian dollar has extended its gains on Monday, after climbing close to 1% on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3396, down 0.35%. Canada creates over 100K jobs The final employment report of 2022 was a winner. The Canadian economy surprised with a massive gain of 104,000 jobs, crushing the estimate of 8,000 and up from the November reading of 10,100. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.0%, below the estimate of 5.2% and the prior read of 5.1%. The Canadian dollar surged on the strong employment report as well as mixed US numbers, as the nonfarm payrolls was decent but wages and the Services PMI were soft. Canada’s superb job numbers could play a key factor in the Bank of Canada’s rate decision on January 25th as a 25-basis point increase appears more likely. The markets have priced in a 75% likelihood of a 25 bp move, up from 64% prior to the release. Three of Canada’s major banks are saying they are also expecting a 25-bp increase, which would bring the cash rate to 4.5%. There are two key events next week which could provide clues on what the BoC has planned at its next meeting – the BoC Business Outlook Survey and the December inflation report. BoC Governor Macklem has said that future rate hikes will be data-dependent and the central bank and investors will be closely watching the inflation release. In the US, nonfarm payrolls came in at 223,000, down from 256,000 but above the estimate of 203,000. This was a decent release, but investors focussed on the bad news. Average hourly earnings rose 4.6%, well off the 5.0% estimate and shy of the prior reading of 4.8%. As well, the ISM Services PMI fell into contraction territory for the first time since May 2020. The index slipped to 49.6, down sharply from 56.5 and the forecast of 55.5. A reading below the 50.0 threshold separates contraction from expansion.  The drop in wages and weak services data indicate that the US economy is slowing and is likely to tip into recession. This could force the Fed to ease up on its pace of rate hikes, and as a result, the US dollar was broadly lower on Friday. Read next: Incorporating Slack And Other Apps Into The Salesforce Platform Can Actually Put Buyers Off| FXMAG.COM USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.3522 and 1.3609 1.3358 and 1.3271 are providing support This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.  

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 102.30 intraday lows on Monday before finding some bids coming. The index is seen to be trading close to 102.80 at this point in writing and is expected to continue higher as the bulls prepare to come back in control. Prices have hit a major Fibonacci target at 102.30 as seen on the 4H chart here. The price is looking higher from here. The US dollar index seems to have completed its drop from 114.70, hitting the Fibonacci 1.618 target at the 102.20-30 zone. The bulls can be expected to come back strong from current levels and continue higher in the next several weeks. Immediate price resistance is seen through 105.35 and a push-through will confirm that bulls are back in control. The US dollar index is also producing a reasonable bullish divergence on the 4H chart as seen here. This could be a potential sign of a trend reversal, which could produce a meaningful rally towards at least 109.00. Aggressive traders might want to hold long positions from current levels, targeting 105.35 in the next few trading sessions. Trading idea: Potential bullish move against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307921

USD/CAD is displaying back-and-forth moves, following the footprints of the US Dollar Index. Federal Reserve Powell’s speech has become critical after a decline in US economic activities and wage inflation. Bank of Canada Macklem’s speech could be hawkish after upbeat December employment data. USD/CAD may remain in the grip of bears on a broader note amid declining 20-and 50-EMAs. USD/CAD is struggling to extend its recovery move from 1.3350 above the immediate resistance of 1.3400 in the early European session. The Loonie asset is displaying a sideways auction as investors are awaiting speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell and Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem for fresh cues. The market mood has turned risk-averse amid selling interest in risk-perceived assets like S&P500 futures. The 500-stock basket futures have continued their late Monday sell-off mood in the Asian session. Also, a rebound in the 10-year U Treasury yields to near 3.54% has weighed on investors’ risk appetite. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is displaying a lackluster performance below the critical resistance of 103.00 as investors have preferred to remain quiet ahead of the speeches. Federal Reserve Powell’s speech hogs limelight The speech from Federal Reserve Powell, which is scheduled for Tuesday, carries significant traction. Investors expect that soaring recession fears led by a slowdown in Services and Manufacturing PMI in the United States and a constructive decline in December’s Average Hourly Earnings might impact the methodology yet designed by Fed Powell and his teammates to combat stubborn inflation. However, other Fed policymakers are still solid on their prior views. On Monday, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly dictated that December wage data was one month of data, which can't be declared as a victory. It's too soon to declare victory and stop further interest rate hikes. To tame stubborn inflation, it is reasonable for interest rates to be at 5%-5.25%. Also, Atlanta Fed bank president Raphael Bostic sees interest rate peak in at 5%-5.25%. He further added that the Federal Reserve will continue keeping higher interest rates active into CY2024. United States Inflation- a key trigger ahead This week, the show-stopper event will be the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will release on Thursday. Considering a firmer drop in wage inflation and a decline in the extent of economic activities, the inflation rate is expected to continue its declining spree. According to Bloomberg, the Labour Department’s CPI is expected to show core inflation at 5.7% from the former release of 6.0%. In the opinion of Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, the US Dollar could stay resilient even with a soft reading. “The majority of analysts polled by Bloomberg expect that consumer prices will not have risen in December. If that turns out to be correct, we could bet on everything being priced in, with the Dollar not coming under pressure. However, I am not so sure.” Bank of Canada Macklem’s speech to provide further assistance The Canadian Dollar is likely to remain on tenterhooks as Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will deliver a speech on Tuesday. After the release of stronger-than-expected Employment Change and a decline in the Unemployment Rate to 5.0% from the consensus of 5.2% last week, market participants believe that this might escalate wage discussions among firms and job seekers. Bank of Canada’s Macklem could deliver hawkish projections for interest rates as higher employment bills for firms will heat up inflation further. USD/CAD technical outlook After a breakdown of stretched consolidation formed in a range of 1.3482-1.3702 on a four-hour, USD/CAD has dropped dramatically to near 1.3350. The range expansion on the south side is expected to continue further as the overall market sentiment is still positive. Declining 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.3450 and 1.3510 respectively, add to the downside filters. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of the 20.00-40.00 range, which indicates that a bearish momentum has been activated. On the oil front, the oil price has extended its downside to near $74.50 despite analysts at Morgan Stanley having raised their forecast for China’s GDP to above 5.0%. A note from Morgan Stanley states that the removal of barriers to the housing/property sectors and recovery from COVID zero will strengthen China's economic recovery, which will solidify prospects starting from the second quarter of CY2023. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the United States and lower oil prices impact the Canadian Dollar.

FX markets continue to trade with cautious optimism on the view that a US slowdown can rein in a hawkish Fed and that a reset in China policy will (eventually) see resurgent consumer demand and perhaps even improved foreign relations. That looks like a good story for the commodity and EMFX complex. Look out for comments from Fed Chair Powell today and the NFIB The market is growing increasingly confident that the Fed will end its tightening cycle this quarter USD: Powell pushback? Risk assets have started the year on a strong footing, with a good performance from both equity and debt markets. Emerging markets are back in fashion after a tough couple of years, where the building view that the Fed can soften its pressure on the monetary brakes plus China re-opening can see quite a strong recovery in emerging market currencies against the dollar. We note with interest a piece in the Financial Times today speculating on China's approach to stimulating domestic demand and also seeking to improve foreign relations. China's softening of a ban on coal imports from China and yesterday's news of a 20% increase in crude oil import quotas are consistent with the article. This comes at a time when the market is growing increasingly confident that the Fed will end its tightening cycle this quarter and embark on an easing cycle in the third quarter. Today will see two inputs into that Fed story in the form of i) comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell around 15CET today and ii) the NFIB small business sentiment survey. Powell is speaking at a Riksbank conference on central bank independence, making it unclear whether he will today push back against the recent softening in US financial conditions. Certainly, the market does not buy into the Fed's narrative of the funds rate being taken to 5.00% and being kept there for a long time. Markets seem to price a 50bp easing cycle in 2H23. Regarding the NFIB survey, the market will be interested in whether it sinks any further and supports the recessionary readings provided by last Friday's ISM services release. Assuming that neither Powell's comments nor the NFIB breaks the building narrative of a more relaxed Fed (and Thursday's US CPI will also be key for this story), we would expect momentum to remain against the dollar and continue to favour activity/commodity currencies. Speculation will also be building that the Bank of Japan might have a further Japanese government bond (JGB) yield target adjustment in store after the Tokyo ex-food CPI hit 4% year-on-year – a level last seen in 1981. The Bank of Japan meets next week. DXY looks biased towards the 102.00 as investors put money to work on non-USD assets. Chris Turner EUR: So far, so good EUR/USD managed to nudge up to a new high yesterday without the support of much new news. It seems that asset managers are starting the year by placing money overseas, where dollar sales for emerging market currencies seem to lift EUR/USD as well. That said, European equities continue to outperform at the start of the year and eurozone data also continues to surprise on the upside.  For the time being, we would prefer to back further EUR/USD strength – should today's US event risks allow. This could see EUR/USD pressing last May's high at 1.0785. This week there is an outside risk of 1.0950 should Thursday's US December CPI show another soft reading. Before we dust off the call to 1.15, we should note that a re-opened China will compete for global LNG supplies. This means that the issue of high natural gas prices could well come back and bite the eurozone and the euro later in the year. Chris Turner GBP: Better risk environment provides some insulation Sterling has been performing slightly better, helped no doubt by the constructive risk environment at the start of 2023. The UK has quite a large country weight in global equity and debt benchmarks, meaning that flows into these products can provide some support. Sterling barely budged yesterday on comments from Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill that there were early signs that the UK labour market was softening. Again, market pricing of a further 100bp BoE hike to the 4.50% area this summer looks resolute. 0.8770-0.8870 may well contain EUR/GBP for the rest of this week, though GBP/USD could have some more upside should US data allow. Chris Turner CEE: Romania closes the hiking cycle in the region Today's calendar in the region offers National Bank of Romania (NBR) policy meeting. Although it seemed likely that we would not see another rate hike after the last meeting, the November inflation number has convinced us that one more hike is more than likely. That is why we expect the last 25bp rate hike today to 7.00%. However, our chief economist in Bucharest, Valentin Tataru, gives a 30% chance that rates will remain unchanged today. A rate hike is unlikely to impress anyone, and we will look for clues as to how the NBR views the liquidity situation in the market. From a rate perspective, we think this meeting should be the last live one, which will close the CEE region's hiking cycle, given that we do not expect rate hikes anywhere else.  The Romanian leu, like the entire CEE region, has benefited from favourable global conditions in recent weeks and, with the exception of the last few days of last year, has remained below NBR intervention levels. Although Romania is the least energy-dependent country in the region, the positive impact of the drop in gas prices and the more favourable EUR/USD level has not avoided the Romanian market. These conditions are expected to persist in the coming weeks. Although the carry level is among the lower ones within the region, it is at least stable. Moreover, the central bank maintains strong market confidence not to allow a depreciation above intervention levels. Thus, in our view, any EUR/RON upward moves may be tempting for RON buyers. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK TagsNational Bank of Romania FX Daily Federal Reserve Dollar  

Good news is that Asian stocks entered bull market. Bad news is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell could hammer the post-NFP stock rally in US stocks. Sentiment is mixed and investors are tense before Powell’s speech, and Thursday’s US inflation data. S&P500 The S&P500 was unable to extend gains above the 3900, rapidly started erasing early-session gains and ended the session 0.08% lower. Nasdaq also gave back early-session gains, though closed the session 0.60% higher. US makret US equity futures are in the negative this morning, as the King of market disappointment, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will be speaking at an event in Stockholm today, and he will probably not pop the champagne just because the wages grew less than expected last month, especially when you think that the US economy added a near record 4.5 million jobs last year, and that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Forex In the FX, the US dollar index remains under a decent selling pressure, as a result of the dovish Fed expectations since last Friday’s US jobs data. The EURUSD advanced to 1.0760 yesterday, Cable flirted with 1.22 this morning, and gold consolidates gains. Energy market In energy, crude oil remains under pressure despite the Chinese reopening talk, and the falling Russian supply. We see that the European sanctions weigh on Russian oil supply, as the 4-week average shipments decline despite a small gain posted last week. That means that the lower Russian supply will be another supportive factor of oil prices. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 Asian stocks enter null market 1:25 Powell could shoot Fed doves down 5:18 Another big S&P500 is possible 7:11 US dollar under pressure 8:32 Russian crude shipments on falling trend 9:32 Copper futures rally, but risks prevail Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #Powell #speech #Fed #expectations #USD #EUR #GBP #XAU #earnings #season #Lululemon #banks #MSCI #AsiaPacific #bull #market #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

USD/CAD takes offers to pare intraday gains around 1.3420 during early Wednesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Loonie pair fails to trace options market signals as it consolidates the previous day’s recovery moves from a six-week low. One-month risk reversal (RR) of the USD/CAD pair, a ratio of call options versus put options, also known as the bullish bets and the bearish bets in that order, printed the first positive figures in three days at the latest, to +0.019. It’s worth noting that the weekly RR printed the biggest positive figures since late September in the last, with a +0.118 level. That said, the current week’s risk reversal appears -0.136 at the latest. Read next: According To Analysts, Russia May Collapse Within A Decade, Guaranty Trust Bank Has Fined| FXMAG.COM Moving on, the downbeat US Treasury yields and expectations of softer US inflation data may keep the USD/CAD bears hopeful. However, WTI crude oil’s weakness challenges the Loonie pair’s further downside. Also read: USD/CAD stays mildly bid above 1.3400 as Oil price drops amid recession woes  

Technical outlook: The US dollar index slipped through the 102.63 lows during the Asian session on Friday, testing the previous swing low at 102.57. The fact that the bulls are still holding the above price support is indicative of a potential sharp bullish reversal from here in the near term. The index is seen to be trading close to 102.80 at this point in writing as the bulls remain poised for a comeback. The US dollar index might have terminated its larger-degree drop, which started from 114.70 in September 2022. Prices carved a low around 102.55, close to the projected Fibonacci 1.618 extension at 102.30 as seen on the 4H chart presented here. If the above structure holds true, we can expect a sharp rally at least towards 110.00 in the next few trading sessions. The US dollar index is facing immediate resistance at 105.35, while support comes in just around the 102.00-30 zone. The fact that RSI is also showing bullish divergence on several timeframes (not shown today) also builds a strong case of a potential bullish turn from current levels. Only a significant and consistent break below 102.30 will nullify the bullish scenario. Read next: The EUR/USD Pair Maintains A Steady Upward Trend, The Aussie Pair Keeps Close To 0.69| FXMAG.COM Trading idea: Potential rally against 101.50 Good luck! Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308320

USD/CAD attracts fresh buying on Thursday, though the upside potential seems limited. A modest downtick in oil prices undermines the Loonie and lends support to the major. Smaller Fed rate hike bets weigh on the USD and could cap gains ahead of the US CPI. The USD/CAD pair regains positive traction on Thursday and steadily climbs to the top end of its weekly range, closer to mid-1.3400s during the early European session. The intraday move up, however, lacks bullish conviction and is more likely to remain capped ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures. In the meantime, a modest pullback in crude oil prices from over a one-week high touched on Wednesday undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and lends some support to the USD/CAD pair. Despite the recent optimism led by China's pivot away from its zero-COVID policy, worries that a deeper global economic downturn will hurt demand act as a headwind for the black liquid. That said, subdued US Dollar price action might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the major and keep a lid on any further gains. In fact, the USD Index, which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of currencies, languishes near a seven-month low amid the prospects for smaller rate hikes by the Fed. Investors now seem convinced that the US central bank will soften its hawkish stance amid signs of easing inflation. This is evident from a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields and continues to weigh on the greenback. Traders, however, might prefer to wait for the crucial US CPI report before determining the near-term trajectory. Read next: The EUR/USD Pair Maintains A Steady Upward Trend, The Aussie Pair Keeps Close To 0.69| FXMAG.COM The Fed policymakers have indicated that they remain committed to combat high inflation and that rates could remain elevated for longer, or until there is clear evidence that consumer prices are falling. Hence, a stronger US CPI print will lift bets for a more hawkish Fed and push the USD higher, allowing the USD/CAD pair to build on this week's recovery from its lowest level since November 25. Conversely, a softer reading will set the stage for an extension of the recent rejection slide from the 1.3700 round-figure mark.

Technical analysis: USD/CAD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3437 but I see potential for the downside continuation. Trading recommendation: Due to the test of the lower trend-line of the bigger channel in the background, I see potential for the further downside continuation. Watch for the potential selling opportunities with the downside objective at 1.3354. Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought condition and potential for the further downside movement. Key resistance is set at the price of 1.3450/70 Read next:Pietro Beccari Will Be The Louis Vuitton’s CEO, Departures Several Top Executives At Rivian| FXMAG.COM Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-13 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308361

Today, January 12, Thursday, the US dollar dropped significantly once more. Let me remind you that last Friday, reports on the unemployment rate, the labor market, and business activity were released in the United States for the first time in 2023. 223 thousand people were employed, the unemployment rate declined to 3.5%, and the ISM index unexpectedly went below the 50.0 level. Generally speaking, the only ISM index that is detrimental to the dollar is the one for the services sector. The remaining news is all favorable in my opinion, but the demand for the US dollar is still down significantly. The demand for the dollar was steady at the start of this week, but today data on inflation in the United States was released, which did not appear to startle the market but sparked a strong reaction. The market anticipated a decrease in the consumer price index of 6.5% y/y, which exactly happened. The market also anticipated a 5.7% y/y decline in the base index. There were no additional significant occurrences today. The demand for US dollars nonetheless decreased It turns out that although both results from the same report were almost exactly in line with predictions, the demand for US dollars nonetheless decreased, preventing both instruments from starting (or continuing) to build the correction portion of the trend. It is vital to note that the subsequent activities of central banks, in this case, the Fed, are more significant than inflation itself. Michelle Bowman, one of the FOMC's voting members, recently predicted that the rate will increase because inflation is still too high. At a Florida event, Bowman stated, "I believe we can cut inflation without a big economic slump as the jobless rate continues at its historic lows. Other FOMC members had previously argued for the continuation of monetary policy tightening. However, the market appears to be responding that all interest rate increases have already been fully absorbed by the US dollar's constantly declining demand. The rate is anticipated to climb to a maximum of 5.5% by the market, though it may be lower following today's inflation report The recession in the UK has reportedly already started It is important to keep in mind that the demand for the currency is supported by a tighter monetary policy. Therefore, as expectations for the rate decline, so does the demand for the currency. Therefore, from a wave perspective, I continue to anticipate the development of downward trend sections. Despite their significant length and complexity, the market indicates that it is willing to build upward segments. Only figures on British GDP, European and British industrial production, and the American University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index are available this week. The recession in the UK has reportedly already started, thus the most significant GDP data is likely to show a decrease. If this is the case, it would be difficult to predict that the GDP will increase over a single month. The MACD is indicating a "down" trend I conclude that the upward trend section's building is about finished based on the analysis. As a result, given that the MACD is indicating a "down" trend, it is now viable to contemplate sales with targets close to the predicted 0.9994 level, or 323.6% per Fibonacci. The potential for complicating and extending the upward portion of the trend remains quite strong, as does the likelihood of this happening. The building of a downward trend section is still assumed by the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. According to the "down" reversals of the MACD indicator, it is possible to take into account sales with objectives around the level of 1.1508, which corresponds to 50.0% by Fibonacci. The upward portion of the trend is probably over, however, it might yet take a lengthier shape than it does right now. Relevance up to 16:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332164

USD/CAD has picked strength amid caution in the market mood, however the overall sentiment is still positive. Federal Reserve is likely to trim the pace of policy tightening due to a downward trend in US inflation. A sheer recovery in oil prices led by expectations of economic recovery in China may strengthen the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD is likely to continue its downside journey toward the horizontal support plotted at 1.3226. USD/CAD has picked strength and has extended its recovery to near the round-level resistance of 1.3400 in the early European session. Earlier, the Loonie asset picked up demand after dropping to near 1.3345 as the risk appetite of the market participants dropped. Investors trimmed their longs in risk-sensitive assets after a stretched rally. The S&P500 futures have sensed selling pressure after remaining extremely bullish consecutively in the past three trading sessions, portraying caution in the overall positive market mood. A decline in the risk appetite has also impacted the demand for US government bonds, which has increased the 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.47%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways below 102.00 after registering a fresh seven-month low at 101.65. Soften US Inflation supports lower interest rate hike by the Fed Thursday’s release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) has provided confidence that the price pressures are softening and the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s blueprint of achieving price stability is operating effectively. From a peak of 9.1%, the annual headline price index has dropped to 6.5% in a few months. Thanks to the declining gasoline and used car prices have decelerated the pace of inflation in the United States economy. A meaningful decline in the US price index has triggered odds of further deceleration in the pace of the interest rate hike already after slowing in December’s monetary policy meeting as Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and his teammates are working in the right direction. Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said on Thursday that it was time for future Fed rate hikes to shift to 25 basis points (bps) increments, as reported by Reuters. S&P500 to achieve recovery if Fed trims policy tightening pace The equity domain in the United States economy witnessed an intense sell-off in CY2022 as the Federal Reserve was on a trip of hiking interest rates to achieve the 2% inflation target. The US central bank hiked the borrowing rates with four 75 basis points (bps), two 50 bps, and one 25 bps rate hike announcements to 4.25-4.50%. As inflation is getting under control gradually and the Federal Reserve won’t be so hard on interest rates, it looks like the S&P500 will get back into the picture. The slowdown in the pace of the interest rate hike will allow firms to achieve a sense of optimism, which will support them in executing expansion plans and boosting operations. No doubt, the pace of policy tightening will be trimmed but short-term pain will stay. Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker cited that recession in the United States economy is not into the picture but the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could slow to 1% this year. Oil faces barricades for around $79.00 After a perpendicular rally led by support from recovery in the Chinese economy led by sheer reopening measures and expectations of further sanctioning on Russia, oil prices are facing a halt around $79.00. Moscow is expected to face further sanctions from Western countries for oil supply as nations want to restrict it from getting liquidity to fund arms and ammunition in its fight against Ukraine. Further upside in the oil price looks likely amid a decline in US inflation, which will trim the policy tightening pace of the Fed. Meanwhile, the United States administration has denied oil supply to China from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This will force the Chinese economy to look for alternative suppliers, which could accelerate oil prices in a short span of time. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the United States and higher oil prices will strengthen the Canadian Dollar. Read next: The USD/JPY Pair Drop To 130, The Aussie Pair Keeps Trading Above 0.69$| FXMAG.COM USD/CAD technical outlook USD/CAD has delivered a breakdown of inventory distribution placed in a range of 1.3500-1.3700 on a four-hour scale. A breakdown of the inventory distribution phase results in extreme volatility expansion which triggers wider ticks to the downside. The Lonnie asset is likely to find a cushion around the horizontal support plotted from November 15 low at 1.3226. Meanwhile, downward-sloping 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.3414 and 1.3460 respectively, add to the downside filters. A bearish momentum will be triggered if the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) will slip into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00.

Technical analysis: USD/CAD has been trading DOWNSIDE as I expected and the price has reached the first downside objective at the price of 1.3350. Anyway, I see potential for further downside movement due to the strong downside momentum. Trading recommendation: Due to the strong downside pressure in the background and rejection of the key resistance zone, I see potential for the further downside movement and potential second target. Watch for the potential selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside objective at the price of 1.3250. MACD oscillator is showing fresh downside momentum, which is strong sign that sellers are in control. Key resistance is set at the price of 1.3450 Read next: The New Disney Drama: Disney Is Opposing Activist-Investor Nelson Peltz| FXMAG.COM Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-14 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308548

2023 Supply forecasts Corporate supply is forecast at no more than US$600bn in 2023 • Corporate supply was just US$6bn in December pushing the full year supply up to US$555bn, in line with our forecast. This is much lower than previous years, normally averaging closer to US$700bn. TMT saw the largest supply last year with US$137bn, followed by US$99bn from Utilities and US$86bn in Industrials. Looking at the beginning of this year thus far, primary markets have been rather active with US$27bn issued.  • USD supply will be manageable in 2023 as we expect another year of very low net supply. We forecast USD corporate supply to be no more than US$600bn in 2023, up compared to the US$555bn last year. This is still below the average US$700bn seen in the past number of years. Furthermore, redemptions are up in 2023, to US$334bn, and net supply is expected to be rather low at just US$276bn, lower than the average US$400bn.  • Financial supply totalled US$533bn in 2022, very much in line with previous years. Bank senior supply amounted to US$343bn, while Bank capital was US$53bn. A decent amount of financial supply has also been issued in the past week and a half, sitting at US$27bn thus far.    Corporate Reverse Yankee supply expected to remain slow at €40bn in 2023 • Historically, Reverse Yankee supply generally accounts for 10% of US corporate supply, which should amount to US$55bn (€55bn). Furthermore, Reverse Yankee supply is on average 19% of Euro corporate supply which we have forecast at €275bn. This also suggests €55bn for Reverse Yankee supply in 2023.  • However, much like what has been seen in 2022, we expect somewhat lower Reverse Yankee supply in 2023 relative to what is mathematically indicated above, due to:  1. Instability in markets often leads to safe-haven issuance. Many US corporates will be tempted to issue domestically in USD due to the headwinds facing the market this year.  2. The unattractive cross currency basis swap, and our expectation it will remain so.  3. Initial, expected USD outperformance in 1H23, creating less attraction early in 2023. • Therefore, we forecast Reverse Yankee supply to be 38% (€15bn) lower than the normal % of US corporate and EUR corporate supply and hit €40bn in 2023. This will still be up on last year’s c.€30bn.    Read the article on ING Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

With the appreance of Bearish 123 pattern followed by the breakout below Hook (RH) as well as price movement from USDX on its daily chart, it is confirmed that Seller still dominates the price movement from US Dollar Currency Index where in the near future USDX seems to be trying to test the 101.27 level as its first target and the 97.66 level will be the second target if momentum and volatility are supportive and if there is no upward correction movement that exceeds the 103.90 level, if this level is successfully penetrated upwards then there is a high probability that a price decline scenario from USDX will potentially become invalid and cancel by itself. Read next: The UK Economy Expects A Slightly Fall In Inflation, Expected To Fall By 0.1%| FXMAG.COM Relevance up to 06:00 2023-01-21 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/117627

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through fresh lows at 101.36 in the early hours of trade on Monday. The index is seen to be trading close to 101.55 at this point of writing as the bulls prepare to come back in control soon. A break above the 102.25 short-term resistance will be the first sign of the bulls coming back in control and that a bottom is in place at 101.36. The US dollar index seems to have now completed its larger-degree drop, which had begun from the 114.70 high. If the above structure holds well, prices would push higher producing a bullish reversal signal. A potential Engulfing Bullish candlestick pattern is unfolding on the 4H chart presented here. Further, RSI is also producing bullish divergences on several timeframes (not shown here). The US dollar index is now facing strong resistance at 105.35 as marked on the 4H chart here. A push higher will further add confidence to the bullish outlook and that a bottom is in place at 101.36. Potential remains for a push towards 106.40 and 109.50 levels in the next several trading sessions. Trading idea: Potential rally against 100.50. Good luck! Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308685

USD/CAD comes under renewed selling pressure on Monday amid sustained USD weakness. Rising bets for smaller Fed rate hikes and a positive risk tone continue to weigh on the buck. A modest pullback in oil prices could undermine the Loonie and help limit any further losses. The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on Friday's bounce from the 1.3320 area, or its lowest level since November 25 and meets with a fresh supply on the first day of a new week. The pair remains on the defensive through the Asian session and is currently placed near the daily low, around mid-1.3300s. The US Dollar extends its recent sell-off and drops to a fresh seven-month low amid speculations that the Fed may be nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Investors now seem convinced that the US central bank will soften its hawkish stance and have started pricing in a smaller rate hike going forward. The bets were lifted by last week's US consumer inflation figures, which showed that the headline CPI fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December. Read next: The UK Economy Expects A Slightly Fall In Inflation, Expected To Fall By 0.1%| FXMAG.COM Adding to this, several Fed officials backed the case for a 25 bps lift-off in February. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, continues to weigh on the safe-haven buck. That said, growing worries about a deeper global economic downturn should keep a lid on the optimism and lend some support to the greenback. Apart from this, a modest pullback in crude oil prices could undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and further contribute to limiting the downside for the USD/CAD pair, at least for the time being. The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution for aggressive bearish traders and positioning for any further losses. The US markets will remain closed on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Moreover, there isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from Canada. Hence, traders will look to the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey report for some impetus around the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, oil price dynamics should influence the Canadian Dollar and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities around the major.

If we look at the 4-hour chart for the USD/CAD commodity currency pair, we can see: 1. Bullish 123 Pattern. 2. Deviations appear between price movements and the Awesome Oscillator indicator. Based on the two facts above, in the near future The Loonie will try to go up to break above the 1.3439 level. If this level is successfully broken above, this commodity currency pair will have the potential to rise up to the 1.3471 level as its first target and the 1.3513-1.3562 area level as the next target but if on the way to the targets that have been described suddenly The Loonie reverses downwards to break below the 1.3316 level then all scenarios that have been described just now will become invalid and cancel automatically.

USD/CAD oscillates in a narrow band and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. A modest uptick in crude oil prices underpins the Loonie and acts as a headwind for the pair. A softer risk tone benefits the safe-haven greenback and helps limit any meaningful downside. Traders now look to Canadian consumer inflation and the US macro data for a fresh impetus. The USD/CAD pair is struggling to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday and oscillating in a narrow trading band through the Asian session. The pair is currently hovering around the 1.3400 mark, nearly unchanged for the day, and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. A modest uptick in crude oil prices underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. The negative factor, to a larger extent, is offset by some follow-through US Dollar buying, which, in turn, lends some support to the major and helps limit the downside, at least for the time being. Data released earlier this Tuesday showed that China's economy grew at a better-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, improving trends in Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production fueled optimism over an economic recovery in the world's largest crude importer and acts as a tailwind for oil prices. That said, worries about a potential global recession keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the black liquid. Traders also seem reluctant and prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the monthly OPEC report, due later this Tuesday, which will be looked upon for any change in the demand forecast for the current year. The US Dollar, on the other hand, attracts some haven flows amid the prevalent cautious market mood, though lacks bullish conviction amid hopes for a less aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for a firm intraday direction for the USD/CAD pair. Moving ahead, the focus shifts to Canadian consumer inflation figures, due for release later during the early North American session. This, along with oil price dynamics, might influence the Canadian Dollar. Apart from this, the Empire State Manufacturing Index from the US  should provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair

The index extends the range bound theme around 102.30. US markets return to normal activity following Monday’s holiday. NY Empire State index, short-term auctions, Fedspeak next on tap. The greenback, in terms of the USD Index (DXY), navigates under some downside pressure in the 102.30 region on turnaround Tuesday. USD Index looks to data, Fedspeak The index surrenders part of the auspicious start of the new trading week and returns to the 102.30 area on Tuesday, as US markets also return to their usual activity following Monday’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. The renewed softer stance in the dollar comes on the back of the pick-up in the sentiment surrounding the risk complex, in particular following better-than-expected results from the Chinese fundamentals published earlier in the Asian trading hours. In the US data space, the manufacturing gauge measured by the NY Empire State Index will be the sole data release and will be accompanied by short-term auctions and the speech by NY Fed J.Williams. What to look for around USD The dollar keeps navigating levels last seen in June 2022 around 103.30 pari passu with the resumption of the buying interest in the risk complex. The idea of a probable pivot in the Fed’s policy in the next months continues to weigh on the greenback and keeps the price action around the DXY depressed. This view, however, also comes in contrast to the hawkish message from the latest FOMC Minutes and recent comments from fed’s rate-setters, all pointing to the need to advance to a more restrictive stance and stay there for longer, at the time when rates are seen climbing above the 5.0% mark. On the latter, the tight labour market and the resilience of the economy are also seen supportive of the firm message from the Federal Reserve and the continuation of its hiking cycle. Key events in the US this week: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Tuesday) – MBA Mortgage Applications, Producer Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NAHB Index, Business Inventories, Fed’s Beige Book, Net Long-term TIC Flows (Wednesday) – Building Permits, Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday) – Existing Home Sales (Friday). Eminent issues on the back boiler: Rising conviction of a soft landing of the US economy. Prospects for extra rate hikes by the Federal Reserve vs. speculation of a recession in the next months. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict. USD Index relevant levels Now, the index is losing 0.23% at 102.31 and the breach of 101.77 (monthly low January 16) would open the door to 101.29 (monthly low May 30) and finally 100.00 (psychological level). On the other hand, the next hurdle emerges at 105.63 (monthly high January 6) followed by 106.41 (200-day SMA) and then 107.19 (weekly high November 30).

Chinese activity data for 4Q22 released overnight was much better than expected and supports the proposition that the 2023 Chinese growth story will support pro-cyclical currencies, including the euro. Ongoing declines in natural gas prices are also helping. Today's focus will be on digesting UK labour market data, the German ZEW, and Canadian CPI Activity data released overnight supports the view that China's zero-Covid reversal will spark resurgent Chinese demand USD: Quiet start to the week still favours pro-cyclical currencies FX markets have had a quiet start to the week – perhaps awaiting edicts from Mount Davos? However, Chinese data released overnight was material and very much supports this year's hottest trend that China's zero-Covid reversal will spark resurgent Chinese demand. My colleague Iris Pang was very impressed by the December retail sales and fourth-quarter GDP data, so much so that she has revised up the 2023 China GDP forecast to 5%. The December data, in particular, supports the proposition that despite the pick-up in case numbers, the freedom of movement story is positively dominating the Chinese demand story. The Chinese data did not, however, trigger any follow-through buying of the renminbi or Asian currencies in general. Rather than concluding that this story has already run its course in FX markets, we would prefer to see price action as merely quiet before the Chinese New Year starting next week, and the big event risk in early Asia tomorrow, which is the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. The dollar itself is steady. The US data calendar only really kicks off with what may be a soft December US retail sales release tomorrow. And there are no Fed speakers during European hours today. Some further DXY consolidation looks likely in a 102.00-102.50 range today. A downside break could emerge in Asia tomorrow, were the BoJ to again tweak its 10-year JGB yield target. Chris Turner  EUR: Revising the EUR/USD forecast higher Yesterday we published some substantial upside revisions to our EUR/USD forecast profile. Broadening signs of slowing US price pressures, stronger signs of US recession, a better Chinese demand outlook and a better energy situation all made our sub-consensus EUR/USD forecasts untenable. We now favour EUR/USD moving higher through 2Q23 towards the 1.15 area – but the gains may stall there in 2H23 given what could be trouble with the US debt ceiling in late summer and higher energy prices next winter. Back to the shorter term, the EUR/USD backdrop remains supportive. As discussed above, China's demand trends are supportive of pro-cyclical currencies like the euro. That better outlook for the eurozone could appear in today's German January ZEW investor survey, where the expectations component is expected to have improved from -23 to -15.  Also positive is the continuing fall in European gas prices. Two stories caught our eye today. The first is that European natural gas inventories are now 82% full versus the average levels of 63% normally seen at this stage of the heating cycle. The second is that Chinese importers are redirecting LNG shipments to Europe, given local inventories seem sufficient. That is a surprise. The continuing fall in European natural gas remains a positive development for the eurozone trade balance and is euro supportive. EUR/USD may consolidate in a 1.0780-1.0870 range today – but the near-term macro trends remain supportive. Chris Turner GBP: 50bp hike still in play for February Our UK economist, James Smith, describes today's release of November jobs figures as "another month of relative resilience in the UK jobs market". Wage growth was a little higher than expected and supports the latest findings from the Bank Of England's Decision Maker Panel survey. Depending on the resilience of tomorrow's release of December UK CPI data it seems too early to dismiss the risk of another 50bp rate hike from the Bank of England on 2 February. Currently the market prices in around 42bp of tightening at that meeting. Today's data saw EUR/GBP drop 15 pips – a move that makes sense. EUR/GBP is trading close to 0.89 because of December's hawkish ECB shift. The longer the BoE stays in hawkish mode, the more support sterling can get. Expect EUR/GBP to trade on the soft side of an 0.8850-0.8900 range today, with tomorrow's UK CPI release proving the next major input. Chris Turner CAD: Inflation key for BoC January move The Bank of Canada (BoC) looks set to face a hike/no-hike dilemma at next week’s (25 January) policy meeting. Signs of slowing economic activity were taken on board in the latest BoC statement and clearly emerged in yesterday’s BoC Business Outlook survey, where the future sales index dropped to the lowest since the pandemic and most interviewed firms said they expect a recession in Canada. However, the jobs figures came in very strong in the December read, with robust full-time hiring keeping the unemployment rate around cyclical lows. The slowdown in wage growth from 5.4% to 5.2% did not seem enough of a silver lining, and markets have been reluctant to price out the 19bp currently embedded in the OIS curve. Today’s CPI read will be key. Consensus expectations are centred around a deceleration in headline inflation from 6.8% to 6.4%, and from 5.0% to 4.9% in the core (median) rate. Any signs of resilience in inflation would likely see markets fully price in a 25bp hike in January. Below-consensus reads should support CAD short-dated bonds, but it seems hard that investors will completely rule out a hike next week. The impact on CAD should be quite visible in both directions, although external forces should remain the key drivers on the loonie. Building USD weakness may favour a USD/CAD contraction to 1.31-1.33 in the coming weeks, although a surprise hold by the BoC is a clear upside risk for the pair.  Francesco Pesole Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Technical outlook: The US dollar index climbed through the 102.45 intraday high during the Asian session on Wednesday. The index is seen to be trading close to 102.35 at this point in writing after having carved a higher low in the 101.60-65 zone earlier. It looks like the bears have bottomed out at 101.36 over the last week as prices resume carving higher lows and higher highs. The US dollar index is plotting a potential Morning Star candlestick pattern on the daily chart (not presented here), which could revive a rally towards 106.50 and 109.50 levels going forward. Also, note that immediate price resistance is seen through 105.35 and a break there will accelerate further towards the initial projected target. The US dollar index is expected to be well supported around the 101.90-102.00 zone intraday. Any pullbacks towards the above range would be well supported as the bulls are regaining control. Only a consistent break below 101.30 will negate the above bullish scenario. Traders might be preparing to buy on drops towards 102.00 again, with risk towards 101.36. Trading idea: Potential rally against 100.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309047

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its below-zero interest rate and its faltering yield curve control policy unchanged. No-action sent the Japanese 10-year yield tumbling by up to 14 bp – that’s almost a 30% plunge. The dollar-yen spiked above the 131.50 level, losing more than 2.50% against the greenback. Equities In equities, confusion and lack of direction best described yesterday’s sentiment in the US. US futures US futures were pointing at a negative start, then turned higher in early trading as we heard a lot of talk about "green shoots" and "bright spots" in the economy when Chinese Vice Premier talked in Davos yesterday saying that he expects China's economy to return to normal this year. S&P 500  The S&P 500 shortly traded above the 4000 level, but reality soon hit the fan with mixed earnings from Goldman and Morgan Stanley, and brought the top sellers in. earnings And the top sellers kept selling into the 4000 level to the end of the session. Finally, the index closed the session 0.20% lower, spot on the 2022’s down-trending channel top and above the critical 200-DMA. The first set of earnings doesn’t support a sustainable move above that 200-DMA level. Read next: Alibaba And Its Share Buyback Program Which Is Supported By Ryan Cohen, Microsoft Corp. Plans To Incorporate AI Tools| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:45 BoJ fights the hawks 3:00 FX update 5:29 S&P500 offered at 4000… 6:59 …as mixed earnings hammer optimism 7:59 Tesla better bid despite Jefferies PT cut 8:36 Meme traders refuse to buy Alibaba Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #BoJ #YCC #JPY #JGB #USD #EUR #GBP #inflation #bank #earnings #Alibaba #Tesla #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      

The latest PPI data showed that the producer price inflation in the US fell way faster than expected, while retail sales fell 1.1% in December – marking the biggest monthly drop of last year. S&P500 The S&P500 didn’t like the mix of slowing economic data, and hawkish comments from Fed officials, and dived more than 1.50% yesterday. But the dovish expectations – despite the hawkish comments from the Fed, feed well into the bond markets: the US 2-year yield is diving toward the 4% mark, while the 10-year yield hit 3.30%, the lowest level since September. This means that the positive divergence in the sovereign space, compared with the stocks, is happening. Netflix and P&G And the divergence could be even more visible if the stocks fall further on soft earnings. Netflix and P&G will announce their Q4 results today. Read next: Un Secretary General Antonio Guterres Encouraged The Transition To Green Energy At The World Economic Forum In Davos, The Chinese Economy May Surprise You Positively| FXMAG.COM Energy In energy, US crude advanced past the $82 mark on Chinese reopening optimism and IEA predicting that the oil demand will hit a record in 2023, before falling back below the $80 on recession pessimism. Precious metals In precious metals, gold is bid above the $1900 level, supported by lower US yields and the softer US dollar. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:42 Soft economic data from the US revives the Fed doves 2:09 But the Fed doves aren’t enough for cheering up the stock bulls 3:36 Netflix & P&G to reveal Q4 earnings today 6:00 USD is unloved 8:20 Crude oil swings up and down 9:05 Gold looks appetizing on softer yields & weaker dollar Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #PPI #retailsales #data #Netflix #P&G #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #JPY #crude #oil #gold #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 101.65 low before finding support again as the bulls prepare to come back in control. The index is seen to be trading close to 101.80 at this point in writing and is expected to push through the 102.40 initial resistance in the near term. Ideally, prices should stay above the 101.00 interim low carved early this week. The US dollar index might have completed its larger-degree decline between 114.70 and 101.00. Prices have met the Fibonacci 1.618 extension around 102.22 and climbed by almost 100 points. If the above structure holds well, the bulls are expected to come back strong from here and push prices through 105.35 to confirm a potential trend reversal. The US dollar index is preparing to rally against the 101.65 low according to the lower-degree wave structure. Prices are either preparing to rally through 106.50 and up to 109.50 or to push towards a new high above 114.70. Either way, the instrument is looking higher from here as long as the 101.00 support remains intact. Trading idea: Potential rally against 101.00 Good luck!     Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309397

USD/CAD remains indecisive on a day while taking rounds to 1.3460-50 during early Friday. Even so, the Loonie pair braces for the first weekly gain in five amid upbeat signals from the options market. That said, a one-month risk reversal (RR) of the USD/CAD pair, a ratio of call options versus put options, also known as the bullish bets and the bearish bets in that order, printed the first positive figures in three days at the latest, to +0.075 by the end of Thursday’s North American session. It’s worth noting that the weekly RR reverses the previous negative figure of -0.323 with +0.100 by the press time. It should be noted that the firmer prices of Oil, Canada’s key export, contrasts with the US Dollar’s inability to cheer the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) comments to restrict immediate USD/CAD moves. Also read: USD/CAD looks to regain 1.3500 despite firmer Oil price, Canada Retail Sales, Fed talks eyed

The Canadian dollar is unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.3466 in the European session. We could see some volatility in the North American session, as Canada releases retail sales. Retail sales expected to decline The markets are bracing for a downturn in retail sales for November, with a forecast of -0.5% m/m for the headline figure and -0.4% for the core rate. This follows a strong report in October, as the headline reading was 1.4% and core retail sales at 1.7%. If the releases are as expected or lower, it could be a rough day for the Canadian dollar. Today’s retail sales release is the final major event prior to the Bank of Canada’s meeting on January 25th. The markets have priced in a 25-bp increase, but a hold is also a possibility, especially with December inflation falling to 6.3%, down from 6.8%. The BoC has raised rates by some 400 basis points in the current rate-tightening cycle, which began in March 2022. Similar to the market outlook on the Fed’s rate policy, there is significant speculation that the BoC could wind up its tightening at the first meeting of 2023 and then keep rates on hold. The BoC has said that future hikes will be determined by economic data, and there are signs of strength in the economy despite the Bank’s aggressive rate policy. GDP expanded by 2.9% in Q3 which was stronger than expected and job growth sparkled in December, with over 100,000 new jobs. The markets will be looking for clues about future rate policy from the rate statement and BoC Governor Macklem post-meeting comments. Read next: $1 Million In Sanctions Against Former President Donald Trump, Netflix Co-Founder Reed Hastings Has Stepped Down As CEO| FXMAG.COM USD/CAD Technical 1.3455 is a weak support line, followed by 1.3328 1.3582 and 1.3707 are the next resistance lines This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.  

Growing uncertainty has caused US equities to fall, with all three major indices down a full percentage point. Meanwhile, gold rose strongly and almost gained as much as 1.5%. The move came after reports emerged that the US already reached the debt ceiling set by the Congress. According to the data, it now exceeds $ 31 trillion, which is likely to force Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to take "extraordinary measures", such as not paying all of the country's bills. It will also prompt Yellen to send a letter to the Congressional leadership, following the one she already sent last January 13, when she urged the Congress to act immediately in order to protect the full faith and credit of the United States. Despite this, Fed officials continue to highlight the need for further rate hikes as it is a key tool to address and lower the current rate of inflation. The bank has announced its plan to raise the benchmark rate above 5% even though recent data indicates that inflationary pressures may have peaked. Markets are becoming increasingly concerned because previously, the political administration has been slow to act, either postponing a solution or only proposing to raise the debt ceiling. Persistently high inflation can only make the problem worse Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332875

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 101.20 lows during the early Asian session on Monday. The index has found some support thereafter and is seen to be trading close to 101.40 at this point in writing. A push above 102.10-20 will confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place and the bulls are back in control. The downside remains limited from here. The US dollar index has further terminated its larger-degree drop, which started from 114.70, in September 2022. The Fibonacci 1.618 extension has been met at 102.20 as seen on the 4H chart here. A high probability remains for a bullish reversal from the current levels towards 106.50 and 109.50 respectively. The US dollar index is facing strong resistance at 105.35. A push higher will confirm a further upside and that the bulls are here to remain in control. Near-term resistance is seen around 102.50 and it would be encouraging to see prices break higher. Only a consistent break below 101.00 will void the above-presented bullish scenario. Trading idea: Potential trend reversal higher against 100.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309569

USD/CAD picks up bids to reverse intraday losses, probes two-day downtrend. Multiple moving averages stand tall to challenge recovery moves. MACD, RSI conditions suggest further weakness but 10-week-old support line restricts immediate downside. USD/CAD licks its wounds during a sluggish Monday morning as the pre-Fed blackout joins the Lunar New Year holidays in China. Even so, the bears remain hopeful as the quote extends the previous day’s pullback from the key moving averages. That said, the Loonie pair reverses the week-start losses near 1.3375 by the press time. Not only a slew of moving averages but the bearish MACD signals and the mostly steady RSI (14) also keep the USD/CAD sellers hopeful of visiting an upward-sloping support line from November 15, 2022, around 1.3335 at the latest. It should be noted that the quote’s weakness past 1.3335 could make it vulnerable to dropping toward the September swing high near 1.3205. However, the 200-DMA support of around 1.3195 could challenge the USD/CAD bears afterward. In a case where the USD/CAD bears keep the reins past 1.3195, the 1.3000 psychological magnet will be in focus. Alternatively, the 21-DMA guards the pair’s immediate upside around 1.3480 ahead of the convergence of the 50-DMA and the 100-DMA, close to 1.3510-20. If at all the USD/CAD buyers manage to cross the 1.3520 hurdle, a downward-sloping resistance line from October 13, 2022, near 1.3615, could act as the last defense of the pair sellers. Overall, USD/CAD remains on the bear’s radar even if the 2.5-month-old support line limits nearby declines. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected

On the 4-hour chart the US Dollar Index appears to be moving in a bearish channel and is below the Moving Average so that in the near future #USDX has the potential to continue its decline below the 101.50 level as the main target and 101.27 as the second target, but if before succeeding to the target levels mentioned earlier, suddenly #USDX reverses upwards and breaks above the 102.87 level, the downside scenario described earlier will cancel itself.   Relevance up to 06:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/118063

AUD/USD is struggling to extend gains above the immediate resistance of 0.7040. Reserve Bank of Australia might continue its restrictive monetary policy despite a contraction in economic activities. Federal Reserve is highly likely to decelerate the pace of policy tightening to 25 bps amid softening inflation. AUD/USD is expected to continue its upside momentum broadly as momentum oscillators are supporting the Australian Dollar. AUD/USD has sensed selling interest while attempting to surpass the immediate resistance of 0.7040 in the Asian session. The Aussie asset is witnessing heat after the release of the downbeat preliminary Australian S&P PMI (Jan) data in early Tokyo. Also, a recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has triggered volatility in the Aussie asset. The US Dollar Index has recovered after dropping to near 101.50. The USD Index has refreshed its day’s high at 101.61 as investors are supporting the safe-haven assets again amid a decline in the demand for US government bonds. The 10-year US Treasury yields have recaptured the critical resistance of 3.52%. Meanwhile, the S&P500 futures are aiming to recover their morning losses. The 500-US stock basket futures witnessed significant buying interest on Monday amid rising chances of further deceleration in the pace of policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Australian Manufacturing PMI trims straight for seven month According to the preliminary S&P PMI (Jan), Australian Manufacturing PMI has trimmed consecutively for the seven-month to 49.8 while the street was expecting an expansion to 50.3. Also, the Services PMI has dropped vigorously to 48.3 from the consensus of 49.7. Rising interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in its fight against stubborn inflation are leading to a contraction in economic activities. The absence of easy money for firms to execute investment and expansion plans along with bleak economic demand has trimmed the scale of economic activities. Australian economic activities could recover ahead as China is on the path of recovery now after dismantling Covid-inspired lockdown curbs. According to a note from JPMorgan, Australia’s economy could be no small beneficiary of an end to China’s zero-Covid policy over the next two years. Also, China’s reopening could boost Australia’s economy by 1%. Investors await Australian Inflation for further guidance This week, investors will keenly focus on the release of the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the fourth quarter of CY2022, which is scheduled for Wednesday. According to the estimates, the annual CPI is expected to escalate further to 7.5% from the prior release of 7.3%. While monthly inflation is seen sharply higher at 7.7% from the former release of 7.3%. A release of the unchanged or higher-than-anticipated Australian inflation data might force the Reserve Bank of Australian Governor Philip Lowe to hike its Official Cash Rate (OCR) further. It is worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia is continuously hiking the interest rates to trim inflation, however, the energy prices are continuously ruining the whole plan. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers cited that the worst part of the country's inflation crisis was over. He believes "The Australian economy will begin to soften a bit this year and that is the inevitable likely consequence of higher interest rates and a slowing global economy.” Federal Reserve to trim the pace of restrictive policy further Multiple catalysts belonging to the United States are conveying that inflation is softening further. Firms have been forced to release fewer employment opportunities due to the lower Producer Price Index (PPI) amid bleak economic projections. Also, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cited on Monday that overall, she has a “good feeling that inflation is coming down.” This has further accelerated the odds of 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its February monetary policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 50 bps interest rate hike have vanished significantly. More than 98% chances are favoring a 25 bps interest rate hike by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve has already trimmed the scale of hiking interest rates after four consecutive 75 bps interest rate hikes to 50 bps in its December monetary policy meeting. AUD/USD technical outlook AUD/USD is marching towards the five-month high plotted from January 18 high at 0.7064 on an hourly scale. The Aussie asset displayed a V-shape recovery from January 19 low around 0.6875, which provides confidence that bullish momentum is present in the current trend. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.7020 is constantly providing cushion to the Australian Dollar. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that the upside momentum is solid

USD/CAD fades bounce off intraday low during four-day downtrend. Oil price struggles to defend gains amid mixed concerns. Hawkish hopes of Bank of Canada, talks surrounding Fed policy pivot keep sellers hopeful. Preliminary readings of US S&P Global PMIs for January will be crucial ahead of BoC interest rate decision. USD/CAD slides to 1.3350 as bears keep the reins for the fourth consecutive day heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair cheers the broad US Dollar weakness, as well as a slow grind to the north in prices of Canada’s key export item, namely WTI crude oil, ahead of monthly activity data from the US. It’s worth noting that Wednesday’s Bank of Canada (BoC) monetary policy decision will be eyed closely by the pair traders amid talks surrounding a policy pivot. That said, WTI crude oil pares intraday gains near $81.70 after a softer start to the week. Even so, black gold remains around the seven-week high amid hopes of China-linked demand. It should be observed that the latest talks surrounding the US readiness to use Special Petroleum Reserves (SPR) in the need weigh on the quote. Elsewhere, the struggles between the US and China surrounding the Beijing-based companies’ ties to the Russian war effort join the fears of economic recession to weigh on the market sentiment and probe USD/CAD bears. Though, mixed figures of the Canadian housing data published the previous day joined the downbeat US Conference Board’s Leading Index and put a floor under the prices. On a broader front, the absence of Fed policymakers’ talks ahead of the February meeting and the Lunar New Year holidays in China restricts the market moves, as well as limit USD/CAD pair’s momentum. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures resist following Wall Street’s gains while retreating from the six-week high marked the previous day, making rounds to 4,030-35 at the latest. On the same line, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields snap three-day recovery moves by struggling around 3.51% and 4.21% by the press time. To break the monotony, USD/CAD traders may take clues from the first readings of January’s S&P Global PMIs and the fourth-quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, major attention will be given to Wednesday’s BoC where the Canadian central bank is up for 0.25% rate hike. More importantly, hints for further rate hikes will be closely observed to determine further downside bias for the Loonie pair. Technical analysis Having failed to cross the 100-DMA, around 1.3515 by the press time, the USD/CAD bears poke a 10-week-old support line, near 1.3340 at the latest, to confirm further downside of the Loonie pair.

The market is focused on the US growth story and the dollar is more and more influenced by data prints. Today's PMI numbers should help limit downside exposure for the dollar. The euro remains supported by ECB officials fighting speculation of a 25bp hike. Hungary's central bank tests market sensitivity on an upcoming rate cut Some improvement in the market's sentiment around the health of the service sector in the US should help limit downside exposure for the dollar USD: Data-related risks are back Risk assets have started the week on the front foot, with equities rising yesterday in Europe and the US while Chinese markets are closed for the whole week. The dollar remained moderately offered. It’s become increasingly clear that larger swings in the dollar are now driven by data releases given the market's heightened sensitivity to the US growth story ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Preliminary PMIs will be released across developed markets today, and despite the surveys not being as highly regarded as the ISM in the US, that elevated sensitivity to data likely makes today’s releases a risk event for the dollar. Consensus expectations are centred around a modest recovery in the service index and in the composite survey. Some improvement in the market’s sentiment around the health of the service sector in the US should help limit downside exposure for the dollar. In that case, DXY may hold around 102.00 today unless PMIs in Europe surprise to the upside. Richmond Fed manufacturing data is the other release in the US calendar today. In the rest of G10, AUD has cemented its position as the most popular long trade in 2023, breaking decisively above 0.7000 yesterday. Tonight’s fourth-quarter CPI data in Australia will be key, as evidence of sticky inflation may force a hawkish repricing across the AUD curve (which currently embeds 40bp of extra Reserve Bank of Australia tightening) and add steam to the AUD/USD rally. CPI figures are released also in New Zealand tonight, and we see a larger risk they could show a deceleration in price pressures compared to Australia. AUD/NZD may retest the recent 1.0950 highs soon as the NZD curve has more room for a dovish repricing. Francesco Pesole EUR: Reality check Given that part of the recent EUR strength has relied on a re-rating of growth expectations in the eurozone thanks to lower energy prices, today’s PMIs will likely be a reality check on the sustainability of this driver for the common currency. Consensus expectations are moderately upbeat and signal that the PMI services index could return above 50.00 for the first time since July. Still, it will now take quite a good deal of positive news to push another big idiosyncratic euro rally. It seems more likely that EUR/USD could test 1.1000 on the back of rising market risk appetite weighing on the safe-haven dollar, if anything. At the same time, the effective pushback by ECB officials against speculation around 25bp hikes is likely limiting downside risks for the pair. President Christine Lagarde has one last chance to deliver any remark today before the quiet period kicks in ahead of next week’s meeting. A mere reiteration of her recent rhetoric, however, seems highly likely at this stage. Francesco Pesole GBP: Limited upside room against the euro PMIs may look a bit grimmer in the UK compared to the eurozone today, which could hinder the modest rebound in EUR/GBP seen over the past two trading sessions. The pair may struggle to climb above 0.8830-0.8850 for now. Still, the pound should be able to count on a generalised alignment in market expectations around a 50bp hike by the Bank of England next week (45bp priced in at the moment), which suggests a smaller scope for a correction.  Francesco Pesole HUF: Central bank assesses progress at home and abroad This week's highlight in the region is the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) meeting today. The central bank has made it clear that it wants to see a tangible and permanent improvement in risk sentiment. This means an improvement on the geopolitical side and on internal issues such as the Rule of Law, the current account deficit, and inflation. While we have seen some progress on all of these issues, in our view it is not enough for the central bank. However, after the progress in the EU story and lower-than-expected inflation, markets are already looking for indications of the NBH cutting rates, which are the highest in the CEE region. We expect the central bank to confirm its intention to keep interest rates high for longer today. However, we concede that the current situation could be tempting for the central bank to test the market by sending a dovish message. Increasingly, the market is seeing signs of speculation of a too-early interest rate cut. If the NBH resists the temptation and confirms the hawkish tone, we expect the current speculation to cool down and the forint could get back on track. In addition, yesterday's reaction to Fitch's downgrade of the rating outlook to negative could slightly clear long positioning and clear the way for further forint appreciation. In that case, we expect that the forint could test 390 EUR/HUF soon. Otherwise, the current positioning favours a rather asymmetric reaction negatively towards EUR/HUF 400. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK TagsHungary FX Daily Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through 104.40 during the early Asian session on Wednesday before finding support again. The index has been oscillating within a contracting triangle since January 18, after hitting the 101.11 low.This could be seen as the last leg potentially before a break higher towards 102.50 and further. The price is looking higher from here soon. The US dollar index is seen to be trading close to 101.50 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to come back in control. A push through 102.10-20 will enable DXY to break out of consolidation and open the door towards 102.50 and the 105.35 strong resistance. For the above bullish structure to hold, prices should stay above 101.10 going forward. The US dollar index seems to have terminated its larger-degree corrective wave, which had begun since the 114.70 high in September last year. If the above structure holds well, the bulls will be poised to push through 105.35 in the near future, followed by 106.50 and 109.50 in the coming weeks. A probability also remains to print a new high above 114.70. Trading idea: Potential bullish turn against 100.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309919

The Bank of Canada is facing a hike/no-hike dilemma today. Our view is that it will deliver the last 25bp hike of the cycle now, but retain some flexibility to avoid sounding too dovish. The CAD impact may be slightly positive. Elsewhere, there are no key data releases in the US, while the German Ifo index will be watched closely after yesterday's strong PMIs USD: No key US data today Yesterday’s PMIs painted a less dramatic picture of the US service sector compared to the latest ISM survey and triggered a positive reaction in the dollar. However, markets quickly sold the USD rally, confirming a rather pronounced bearish bias despite encouraging data. It does appear investors are happily buying the dip in EUR/USD around the 1.0850 handle at the moment, and that could prove to be a short-term floor for the pair. There are no data releases to highlight today and no Fed speakers due to the pre-FOMC blackout period. Markets have cemented their view that next week’s move will be a 25bp hike, but are still reluctant to fully price in another 25bp of tightening: the futures and swap market are embedding a 4.90% peak rate. This signals the perceived balance of risks is tilted to the dovish side ahead of next week’s FOMC. Should this narrative gain more traction this week, the dollar may remain gently offered. However, a sharper decline in the dollar may not be on the cards until other large event risks (European Central Bank, Bank of England meetings) are past us. Francesco Pesole EUR: 1.0850 emerging as a short-term floor A below-consensus reading in German manufacturing was the only flaw in an otherwise convincing set of PMIs in the eurozone yesterday. The eurozone composite PMI index moved back into expansionary territory (i.e. above 50.00) for the first time since June 2022, endorsing the ongoing re-rating of the growth outlook in the region. As mentioned in the USD section, 1.0850 has emerged as a buy-the-dip area in EUR/USD over the past two sessions. Good data out of the eurozone is likely keeping most investors on the bullish side of the euro for now, and downside risks for EUR/USD appear contained. A test of 1.1000 by the end of the week is looking more likely, although a decisive break higher is not our base case before the ECB. Today, the focus will be on the Ifo indices out of Germany. All three gauges (business climate, current assessment, and expectations) are expected to improve. Looking at the ECB pricing ahead of next week's meeting, it now seems very plausible that markets will not question a 50bp hike, although another half-point move in March is not fully priced in (around 80% implied probability). The degree of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s commitment to another 50bp move will be the key driver of the market reaction next week. Francesco Pesole CAD: BoC to hike one last time Once a hawkish stand-out, the Bank of Canada is facing a hike/no-hike dilemma today. This is, at least, what market pricing seems to suggest, with 17bp of tightening priced in for today’s announcement. Economists’ consensus is leaning more in favour of a 25bp move, which is also ING’s view. As discussed in our BoC preview, a still-tight jobs market is partly offsetting the decline in headline inflation and signs of economic slowdown, and probably suggests this is the right time to deliver the last 25bp hike of the cycle. Should the BoC surprise with a hold, there’s a good chance the bank will keep the door open for a move in March, which would match the market’s current pricing, and ultimately fail to hit the Canadian dollar. A 25bp hike but a strong signal that rates have peaked and growing concerns on the economic outlook (new economic projections are released today) could prove to be a more dovish outcome than a “hawkish hold”, as markets price in more rate cuts in the second half of the year. This is, however, hardly a desirable outcome for a central bank that is still fighting inflation, and our impression is that the BoC will want to retain some ambiguity around future moves for now. The impact on CAD may be positive but rather limited in the end. USD/CAD remains on track for a move to 1.30 in the coming months, in our view, but USD weakness should be the primary driver of such a move. Francesco Pesole HUF: Forint strongest since the middle of last year The Hungarian central bank yesterday confirmed its commitment to keeping conditions tight for a longer period and that it has taken a patient approach to monetary policy. Moreover, the NBH reiterated its intention to continue withdrawing liquidity from the market via the one-week discount bill and the long-term deposit tender. More interestingly, the NBH raised the reserve requirement ratio for banks to 10% effective from April. Overall, it has sent a very clear signal that the hawkish mode will last for an extended period of time and the central bank is not going to allow any hasty moves. The result is a forint slightly below 390 EUR/HUF at the end of yesterday's trading, higher rates at the short end of the IRS curve and FX implied yields climbing higher. The forint is thus the strongest since the middle of last year and we believe it could still benefit from yesterday's decision. Added to this is the higher EUR/USD level compared to last week and yesterday's renewed drop in gas prices back below €60/MWh. On the other hand, we may see some profit-taking today after the forint's multi-day rally and ahead of Friday's risky sovereign rating review from S&P. Overall, we expect the forint to stabilise around 390 EUR/HUF for now. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

USD/CAD is set to extend the downside to near the weekly low around 1.3320. Bank of Canada is expected to hike the interest rate further by 25 bps to 4.5%. The expectation of a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is backed by escalating recession fears. USD/CAD is expected to deliver a breakdown of the Inverted Flag chart pattern that might expand volatility ahead. USD/CAD is hovering near the critical support above 1.3340 in the early European session. The Loonie asset has dropped after failing to sustain above 1.3400 and is expected to decline further to near the weekly lows around 1.3320. The major is following the footprints of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which is displaying a subdued performance. Weakness in the S&P500 futures led by a dip in Microsoft earnings due to missed estimates in the cloud business and technical glitches in the NYSE has turned investors’ risk-averse. Also, investors are restricting themselves from building full-capacity positions ahead of the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to sustain above the 101.50 resistance. The alpha created by the US government bonds has rebounded firmly. The 10-year US Treasury yields have scaled to near 3.47%. Bank of Canada to tighten policy further To tame stubborn inflation, the Bank of Canada (BoC) might continue to tighten its monetary policy further. Canada’s inflation has been recorded at 6.3% from its December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is three times more than the 2% inflation target. According to a poll from Reuters, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s aggressive policy tightening campaign is expected to calm down as the street sees a further interest rate hike by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%. Also, it conveys that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates at 4.5% for the rest of the year, which indicates that this might be the end of further policy tightening. Canada’s headline inflation stood at 6.3% for December and is expected to remain above 2% inflation target till Q3CY2024. Factors that have kept Canada’s inflation at the rooftop are the tight labor market and supply chain bottlenecks. Upbeat employment opportunities have not provided a significant reason to producers to trim the prices of goods and services at factory gates. A higher-than-projected hawkish interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada might strengthen the Canadian Dollar. Oil price attempts a recovery from $80.00 Sheer weakness in the oil prices witnessed on Tuesday has met with demand in Wednesday morning around the critical support of $80.00. The black gold witnessed immense pressure as oil demand is expected to witness short-term pain due to extended holidays in Chinese markets for Lunar New Year celebrations. Also, the absence of chatters about supply cuts in the report from OPEC impacted the oil price. Meanwhile, the oil price has attempted a recovery amid headlines that the United States is considering refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). US President Joe Biden exploited the oil reserves to fight rising oil prices in CY2022. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the United States and a recovery in the oil price might support the Canadian Dollar. Read next: The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.70$, GBP/USD Pair Lost Its Level Of 1.24$| FXMAG.COM Contraction in US GDP might accelerate recession fears After a better-than-projected preliminary United States S&P PMI data, investors are shifting their focus toward the release of Thursday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The street is expecting the fourth quarter GDP at 2.8% vs. the prior release of 3.2%. Investors should be aware of the fact that the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported negative growth in the first two quarters of CY2022. And further contraction in the fourth quarter might accelerate recession fears. The rationale behind softening of economic activities is the higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which has trimmed the leakage of borrowings due to higher interest obligations. Apart from that, chatters about interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve are impacting the US Dollar. The street is expecting a further deceleration in the pace of policy tightening by the Federal Reserve as inflation has been softened significantly. USD/CAD technical outlook USD/CAD is forming an Inverted Flag chart pattern on an hourly scale that indicates a sheer consolidation, which is followed by a breakdown in the same. Usually, the consolidation phase of the chart pattern serves as an inventory adjustment in which those participants initiate shorts, which prefer to enter an auction after the establishment of a bearish bias. Downward-sloping 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3365 and 1.3375 respectively are acting as a major barricade for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates volatility contraction

The dollar gained on Wednesday during limited trading. Traders broadly expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next Wednesday, down from the 50 bp hike in December. Earlier, investors will look at the US economic growth data for the fourth quarter, which will be released on Thursday. Moreover, a drop in global energy prices and a resulting slowdown in inflation in advanced economies has spurred speculation the Fed and other central banks might soon stop raising interest rates. USD/JPY Spot prices struggle to capitalize on the move and held steady at 130.00 through the early European session. USD/JPY is trading below this level. EUR/USD The chances of a bigger interest rate hike by the ECB are growing rapidly. As reported by Bloomberg, ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus reiterated on Tuesday that the ECB should continue raising interest rates by 50 basis points in the face of mounting wage pressure. The euro gained thanks to optimism about the euro zone's economic prospects. As for the future of the euro, economists at CIBC Capital Markets said the improving macroeconomic situation and further policy tightening by the ECB herald the strength of the euro in 2023. During the Asian trading hours, the EUR/USD pair rose until it broke above the 1.0900 level. The momentum fails to sustain and the pair trades below that level at around 1.0870. Read next: The Department Of Justice's Lawsuit Against Google | FXMAG.COM AUD/USD The Aussie pair is gaining strong positive traction for the fourth day in a row and is recovering from 0.7100 for the first time since mid-August during the Asian session on Wednesday. The Australian dollar rose to a more than five-month high on Wednesday after higher-than-expected inflation data, bolstering the case for further interest rate hikes. Australian headline inflation (CPI) continues to pick up, as does the preferred trimmed CPI, on both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis. Australia is set to benefit from the Chinese reopening now that the Chinese government has stated that the nation has already reached a peak in infections and hospitalization rates. The reopening has resulted in increased purchases of Australia’s top export, iron ore, as prices have trended higher. The daily AUD/USD chart shows this pair in an uptrend. The pair managed to record gains over the course of three consecutive days. The AUD/USD pair performed well in the early stages of 2023, driven in large part by the continued downtrend of the dollar. Today, the pair gained above 0.7100, but failed to hold and is below this level again. GBP/USD Details of the UK Producer Price Index (PPI) for January may be of interest to GBP/USD investors ahead of Thursday's key US Q4 GDP and next week's Fed meeting. Sterling fell against the dollar and euro on Wednesday after data showed British manufacturers unexpectedly lowered prices in December, suggesting inflation could be easing ahead of next week's Bank of England policy meeting. The news that UK factories have lowered prices is likely to ease the burden on Bank of England policymakers who need to consider how far to raise interest rates in the fight to bring down inflation. The market expects the BoE to raise interest rates for the tenth time since late 2021 as it fights inflation. Markets are currently evaluating a 75% chance of a 50 point rate hike. The cable pair is still trading below 1.2400, close to the 1.2300 level. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

USD/CAD is aiming to shift its auction above 1.3400 as the BoC has reached the terminal rate for now. The rising probability of a smaller interest rate hike by the Fed is weighing on US yields. Oil price is losing foot above $80.50 as oil demand sees short-term pain due to China’s Lunar New Year holidays. The USD/CAD pair has corrected marginally after a recovery move from 1.3380 in the Asian session. The Loonie asset is looking to shift its business above 1.3400 despite a recovery attempt from the US Dollar Index (DXY). The recovery attempt in the USD Index seems less confident amid the risk-on market mood. S&P500 futures are showing marginal gains in early Asia after settling almost flat on Wednesday. The 500-stock basket has turned volatile as corporate are demonstrating their quarterly performance through earnings displays. The USD Index is putting efforts in building a cushion around a seven-month low at 101.10 ahead of the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) and other economic data, which will release on Thursday. The rising probability of a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) for its February meeting is weighing on the US Treasury yields. The alpha generated by the 10-year US Treasury bonds has dropped to 3.44%. The street is expecting a contraction in the scale of economic activities in the fourth quarter to 2.6% from the former release of 3.2% as Fed chair Jerome Powell has burnt their hands by triggering recession fears in his fight against stubborn inflation. The release of the Durable Goods Orders (Dec) will provide cues about the forward demand, which is expected to jump to 2.5% vs. the prior release of -2.1%. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar is expected to face the heat as Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem has paused further policy tightening after pushing the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5%. The BoC will keep interest rates steady at 4.5% for the rest of the year and will assess the impact of yet terminal rate ahead. On the oil front, oil price is struggling to sustain above 80.50 as celebrations in China due to the Lunar New Year festival has resulted in a pause in economic activities and henceforth a short-term pain in the oil demand. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the United States and lower oil prices might impact the Canadian Dollar.  

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 101.11 lows on Thursday, re-testing its earlier swing low of January 18, 2023, before finding bids again. The index is seen to be trading close to 101.60 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to come back in control. A push above the 102.50 short-term resistance will add further confidence to the bullish setup. The US dollar index might have terminated its larger-degree drop just ahead of 101.00. The entire drop, which had begun from the 114.70 highs, should be retraced towards 106.50 up to 109.50 in the next several trading sessions. On the flip side, if the price consistently breaks below 101.00, it would continue further towards 100.00 and lower. The US dollar index is facing strong resistance at 105.35 as marked on the daily chart here. A push-through will confirm and add further confidence in the bullish setup. The price is expected to produce a bearish reaction if they reach 109.50 since it is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 101.11 respectively. Trading idea: Potential bullish rally against 100.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310301

Markets' concerns about the US growth picture seemed to have eased, paving the way for a modest recovery in the dollar. Next week could, however, see a larger upside USD correction as the FOMC appears to have more room to surprise on the hawkish side compared to the ECB. Elsewhere, SEK is benefitting from good eurozone data, but domestic figures have lagged A 50bp hike by the ECB next week looks like a done deal, and we expect President Christine Lagarde to maintain a hawkish tone USD: Gearing up for an upside correction? The year started quite poorly for the US growth story, but the past couple of weeks have – at least – not given reasons to be even more pessimistic. Yesterday, growth figures in the US were slightly above consensus, and durable goods orders came in strong. We recommend reading our US economist’s note on those releases though, as a deeper look tells a different story than what the headline figures suggest. The week ends with December data on personal income and spending, as well as the PCE deflator, which are all expected to have decelerated.  The dollar did find some support yesterday after markets read US data as encouraging, and should enter a week packed with less bearish momentum. There is probably more room for the FOMC to surprise on the hawkish side compared to the ECB next week, and we could see an upside correction in the dollar materialise. For today, we can expect some consolidation around 102.00 in DXY. Francesco Pesole EUR: Still counting on the 1.0850 floor We have highlighted over the past few days how levels around 1.0850 in EUR/USD seemed to have formed a buy-the-dip floor for the pair. Yesterday’s price action added evidence that this is indeed the case, and we may have to wait for some more sizeable downshifting in USD bearishness in the run-in or after the FOMC meeting next week to witness a decisive break to the downside in EUR/USD. There are no market-moving data releases in the eurozone today, and some focus may only be on Spanish growth numbers this morning. Our economics teams published the ECB preview yesterday. A 50bp hike next week looks like a done deal, and we expect President Christine Lagarde to maintain a hawkish tone and push back against rate cut speculation. The recent communication hiccups however suggest the impact on the euro may not be too pronounced. Francesco Pesole SEK: Dealing with softer domestic data Sweden’s jobs and retail sales were released this morning and came in on the weak side. Unemployment ticked higher to 7.5% and retail sales were down 8% year-on-year in January. Earlier this week, the Economic Tendency index had pointed to a deterioration in the growth picture at the start of the year (while surveys in the eurozone were quite upbeat), although consumer confidence rebounded. SEK has not experienced much weakness as the data flow seemed to deteriorate, even though markets are no longer fully pricing in a 50bp hike by the Riksbank at the 9 February meeting. The solid growth story in the eurozone is probably offsetting the repricing lower in rate expectations. We recently published a scenario analysis for EUR/SEK in 2023. Our core view is that a gradual descent towards 10.50 will materialise by the third quarter. Francesco Pesole HUF: Rating decision will determine the future path of the forint The calendar in the CEE region is empty for Friday and it will be more interesting after the end of trading today. In Hungary, S&P will publish a rating review that will have the market's attention more than usual. A week ago, Fitch – surprisingly for us – downgraded the rating outlook from stable to negative, which highlights the question of whether Hungary has made sufficient progress in negotiations with the European Union for rating agencies. It is the slower absorption of EU funds that seems to have been the main reason for Fitch's decision. S&P has already held a negative outlook since last August and it was the inflow of EU funds that was the main risk of the latest review. Moreover, we expect S&P's new forecast to be revised to the downside in both GDP growth and the fiscal outlook. While we see downgrade risks high, our base case is for an unchanged rating today. With Fitch's recent decision, we think today's review will attract a lot of market attention and will be key for the future development of the forint. Given the heavy long positioning, we can expect an asymmetric reaction in the 385-395 EUR/HUF range. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK TagsSEK HUF FX Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

USD/CAD portrays corrective bounce from seven-month-old ascending support line. Downbeat oscillators, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and previous support line guards recovery moves. 100-DMA holds the key to buyer’s conviction while break of 1.3300 could aim for 200-DMA. USD/CAD picks up bids to pare recent losses around the lowest levels in 11 weeks, mildly bid near 1.3340 heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair bounces off an upward-sloping support line from early June 2022. However, a convergence of the previous support line from mid-November and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s April-October upside, near 1.3380 by the press time, restricts USD/CAD pair’s recovery. Other than the aforementioned key resistance confluence near 1.3380, the bearish MACD signals and the downward-sloping RSI (14) also challenge the Loonie pair’s corrective bounce. Even if the USD/CAD buyers manage to cross the 1.3380 hurdle, the 100-DMA surrounding 1.3525 will be crucial to stop the upside momentum, a break of which won’t hesitate to challenge the monthly high of near 1.3685. On the flip side, a daily closing below the stated multi-month-old support line, close to 1.3300 at the latest, could quickly fetch the USD/CAD pair towards the 200-DMA support of around 1.3210. In a case where the USD/CAD remains bearish past 1.3210, the 1.3200 round figure may act as the last defense of buyers before relinquishing control. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Limited recovery expected

The dollar strengthened on Friday, moving away from multi-month lows against the euro and sterling as investors began to focus on the many important central bank meetings next week. The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England are due to make interest rate decisions next week as they assess what policy adjustments may be needed to fight rampant inflation in a challenging global economic environment. In today's expected audience session, the core US PCE data for December will be released. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation and price pressures are expected to ease further. USD/JPY Annual inflation in Japan's largest city, Tokyo, continues to climb, with the base rate hitting 4.3% in January, the highest level in more than four decades. The USD/JPY pair in the European session is trading close to 130.00, at 129.96. Earlier, the couple managed to break the level of 130.00 but failed to maintain it. The couple is waiting for the publication of the US PCE report. EUR/USD The US dollar draws support from the mostly upbeat US macro data released on Thursday, which in turn is seen as a key factor putting some pressure on EUR/USD. Expectations for a more hawkish nature of the European Central Bank (ECB) should additionally contribute to limiting deeper losses. It is worth recalling that several ECB officials supported additional interest rate hikes in the coming months to fight stubbornly high inflation. Today European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is set to speach. The frequency of Lagarde's speeches in recent times has almost reduced her impact on the financial markets and the euro, which leads me to believe that today's forecasts may not have a significant impact. However, the market's attention will remain focused on key risks related to the central bank's events next week. The Fed will announce its policy decision at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. This will be followed by the ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday, which in turn will play a key role in determining the next stage of the EUR/USD directional move. The EUR/USD pair broke above 1.09 in the morning but fell again. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading in the range of 1.0875-1.0880. Read next: Ukraine Is Calling For More Sanctions Against Russia| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD Given the volatility of the market, the GBP/USD pair may witness a further sideways move ahead of the US PCE price index for December. British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt's willingness to accelerate growth is unimpressive to GBP/USD buyers as the Chancellor defends his position on a tax hike despite heavy criticism from other Conservatives. Alternatively, the growing calls for Brexit solutions, at least from Irish diplomats, appear to be helping the GBP/USD pair bearish. Investors expect the British economy's slowdown to end the Bank of England (BoE) tightening cycle soon. The Cable pair (GBP/USD) broke above 1.24 at the beginning of the day, but similarly to the EUR/USD pair, it failed to hold and fell. Currently, the GBP/USD pair is trading in the range of 1.2360-1.2370. AUD/USD The Australian dollar, tied to sentiment, rose cautiously on Thursday after US GDP data boosted Wall Street's risk appetite. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the US economy grew by 2.9% q/q. This is more than the consensus of 2.6%. The Australian dollar traded at around $0.71, hovering near its highest in almost eight months as rising inflation in the country fueled bets on further central bank policy tightening. Annual inflation in Australia rose 7.8% in December, the largest increase since 1990 and above market forecasts of 7.5%. The Aussie pair is holding above 0.7100 despite having dropped earlier. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com

Summary:  Further flattening or inversion is possible but with the recent downshift consensus with descending inflation numbers, it would be worth watching for trade setup by buying the spread - buy 2 year futures ZTH3 and sell 10 year futures ZNH3 - with reward risk that could favor a steepener instead. Chinese market returns after a long break but this week is huge with heaps of market events starting with FOMC rate decision followed by the earnings of three trillion market cap stocks – AMZN, GOOGL and AAPL - then of course non farm payroll (est 175k) and unemployment (est 3.6%) to wrap things up.S&P500 has already started the new year with YTD return +6% breaking above psychological level 4,000 where both 200DMA & downtrend (from all time high 4,818) coincided.  As a result of this laggy looking Santa rally, S&P500 PE is nearly 20 times compared to low 17 back in October last year and so far 143 companies reported with +0.9% sales and +2% earnings surprises. Last Friday two stocks stood out in relation to the inflation expectations.  AMEX 4Q results showed record quarterly card spending and indicated 2023 guidance for sales & earnings topping estimates.  Further more, similar to BHP that reached all time high $50 level recently, Caterpillar (CAT) has hit record high $266.04 heading into earnings tomorrow night and the focus is expected to be on the machinery producer’s demand forecast for this year.Another observation is on silver (XAGUSD) that has gained ~40% from last year’s support level $18 while testing big downtrend (from double top $30 that was formed during 2020 – 2021).  Given its industrial uses and half precious metal status, China reopening anticipation seems to be fully priced in and major driver behind the recent base metals that also have rallied and is showing resilience.  This month so far, broad based US dollar weakness coincided with falling VIX below 20 and credit spread declining towards 450bps on the back of falling treasury yields in the range between 20 and 40 bps particularly from 2 years onwards.  However the below graph shows shifts in yield curve of key tenors between now and 15th dec 22 when the last FOMC meeting took place with economic projections including non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) at 4% and PCE price index of 2%.  Clearly the big swings – rise in yield – were concentrated on the short end of the curve all the way upto three months while 10 year & 30 year increases were relatively subdued therefore resulting in bear flattener (short end rising faster than long end). Most recent unemployment rate was 3.5% that is the lowest in 50 years and below NAIRU 4% so there is about 0.5% gap in between.  Also last week’s Dec core PCE YoY was 4.4% - the lowest out of four measures of inflation - therefore both of these figures still seem to suggest inflationary condition still exists hence current futures market’s implication of mere two 25bps hikes next two meetings taking the terminal rate at around 4.9% looks to be far from the reality so USD weakness may not last for long – particularly against AUD (S&P500 sensitivity) and JPY (carry trade) that both had the biggest returns of 6% among G10 currencies post last FOMC meeting - with potential reversal being a scenario that shouldn’t be ruled out. Another component of the yield curve other than direction of yield is anticipating whether the curve will steepen or flatten.  Two of the mostly watched spreads – 2y10y (-70bps) and 3m10y (-110bps) - have been extremely inverted for some time hence raising the probability of recession based on the historical correlations.  Major driver behind the inversion of the yield curve has been a significant rise in short end of the curve reacting to Fed’s rate hikes in typical fashion and may continue to see further flattening or inversion but with the recent downshift consensus with descending inflation numbers, it would be worth watching for trade setup by buying the spread - buy 2 year futures ZTH3 and sell 10 year futures ZNH3 while matching duration or DV01 (dollar value of 1 basis point change) - with reward risk that could favor a steepener instead, should the inflation remains elevated above the Fed’s target longer than expected alongside record low level of unemployment while also we have seen AU (7.8%) & NZ (7.2%) with higher than expected CPI last week. e.g. Long 100 lot ZTH3 and short 52 lot ZNH3 with spread ratio of 0.5169 (DV01 of $34.11 / $65.98) in the anticipation of profiting from steepening either by long end yield rising faster than short end yield (bear steepener) or short end yield falling faster than long end yield (bull steepener) but loss from more flattening and breakeven from parallel shift which is probably most unlikely scenario. Yield curve shift 2y10y and 3m10y of yield curve spreads   Source: ST Note - Nothing but yield curve | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

USD/CAD keeps bounce off 2.5-month low while snapping two-day downtrend. Shift in market sentiment exerts downside pressure on Oil price, favors US Dollar. China-linked headlines entertain traders amid a light calendar. Fed’s dovish hike, softer NFP appears necessary for bears to keep the reins. USD/CAD picks up bids to refresh intraday high around 1.3325 during the first positive day in three heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair takes clues from the downbeat Oil prices, Canada’s main export, as well as a rebound in the US Dollar amid the market’s cautious optimism. That said, WTI crude oil takes offers to refresh intraday low near $79.50 as early Asian session optimism, mainly led by China’s return from the one-week-long Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays, fades amid mixed concerns. Read next: A Loss Of $48 Billion In Shares Of The Indian Group Adani As A Result Of The Hindenburg Research Report| FXMAG.COM Also challenging the Oil price could be the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebound from the intraday low while ignoring the US Treasury bond yields. That said, the DXY prints a three-day uptrend near 102.00 but the US 10-year Treasury bond yields retreat from daily tops to 3.50% after the Japanese panel teases hawkish moves of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Elsewhere, Bloomberg poured cold water on the face of expectations that the holiday season propelled China activities. The analysis stated a few signs of improvement in the Chinese economy despite its second month without Covid Zero curbs. The research, however, marks the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday season as marking a lid on some activities. Against this backdrop, the US Treasury bond yields retreat from the intraday top but the stock futures print mild losses. Furthermore, the Asia-Pacific shares grind higher and the US Dollar Index (DXY) defends a two-day recovery. Looking forward, risk catalysts are likely to determine short-term market moves ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Friday’s US jobs report for January. It’s worth noting that headlines surrounding China are an extra burden on the USD/CAD watchers to determine near-term moves. Technical analysis A four-day-old bearish triangle restricts USD/CAD moves between 1.3290 and 1.3330.

The dollar weakened on Monday to near an eight-month low ahead of a series of central bank meetings this week. The US Federal Reserve is likely to continue to ease the pace of monetary policy tightening at its upcoming meetings and plans to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its next two policy meetings. USD/JPY USD/JPY pair struggled to hold significant gains above the psychological 130.00 level. The strength of the yen was limited by dovish comments from the BoJ president. BoJ Governor Kuroda continues to maintain his lenient stance on monetary policy. This comes as investors grow optimistic that rising inflation will result in a hawkish move away from the BoJ. Any further hawkish change from the BoJ seems unlikely with Governor Kuroda at the helm and could happen when the governor steps down in April. Driven by the risk associated with key central bank events, investors seem reluctant to bet on an aggressive bear market around the USD/JPY pair. In addition, comments from BoJ chairman Kuroda Haruhiko that the central bank must continue its easing policy and keep the inflation target at 2% limit the gains for the JPY. USD/JPY Pair started the week at 129.8040 and then increased. Currently, the pair is holding above 130.00. EUR/USD Higher Spanish inflation data supported the euro. The euro surged above $1.09 in late January, hovering around its highest level since April last year as investors awaited multiple central bank meetings this week as they digested stronger than expected Spanish inflation figures. The European Central Bank is due to raise interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since 2008, while investors will also be on the lookout for signs of slowing the pace of monetary policy tightening at its March meeting. Read next: Glovo Planned To Lay Off 250 Workers Worldwide, The Middle East Is Already Suffering From A Water Shortage| FXMAG.COM EUR/USD pair gained traction and climbed above 1.0900 during the European session, but failed to hold and fell to 1.0893. GBP/USD The cable price (GBP/USD) was similar to the EUR/USD rate, i.e. it rose above 1.24 in the European session, but it did not hold and fell to 1.2384. The slight selling pressure around the US dollar ahead of key central bank policy announcements this week appears to be helping the pair push higher. GBP/USD traders can expect interest rate decisions from both sides of the pair this week, with the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England expected to make February moves on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The Bank of England is to raise its base rates by half a percentage point. That would take them to 4%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, with further increases expected. However, there have been some objections to the interest rate setting by the Monetary Policy Committee and it seems that a smaller hike is still on the table. AUD/USD AUD/USD prices have fallen to a three-day low of around 0.7075 in the last hour, although any significant drop still seems elusive. The Aussie pair has lost its momentum above 0.7100 but is not falling significantly and is trading at 0.7076. The Australian remains supported by expectations of further policy tightening from the Reserve Bank of Australia amid soaring inflation and China's swift reopening after Covid restrictions have boosted the global economic outlook. Australia's annual inflation rose 7.8% in December, the RBA has already raised the cash rate by a total of 300 basis points at eight consecutive meetings in 2022, bringing borrowing costs to a 10-year high of 3.1%. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 101.26-28 intraday lows on Monday to terminate its ongoing triangle consolidation before turning higher. The index has rallied sharply since then and is seen to be trading just below 102.00 at this point in writing. The recent rally could be seen as the first leg of a potential bullish breakout above the 102.20-50 zone. As depicted on the 4H chart here, the US dollar index has completed its larger-degree drop from 114.70, which began in September 2022. Prices are expected to produce a meaningful rally towards 106.50 and up to 109.50. Also, note that the above rally could be corrective and just a retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 101.10. The US dollar index could find strong intraday support around the 101.40-50 zone and it might be seen as an opportunity to add further long positions. On the other side, please keep a watch on 102.20, as a break higher would confirm that the bulls are back in control and want to accelerate the rise. Only a consistent break below 101.00 would negate the bullish scenario. Trading idea: Potential bullish reversal against 100.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310718

Summary:  Markets see red on concern FAANG’s will bite into markets, while there is worry the Fed won’t cut rates this year like the market expects, this has resulted in traders booking profits ahead of end of month. Commodities see short term pull back risks, with prices already down from fresh peaks; oil is down 5.6%, iron ore, copper and aluminium lose 2% ahead of the Fed meeting. While Australian shares hold steady, defying negative leads from Wall Street. In FX the US dollar picks up, pushing most currencies off course, with the Aussie dollar down 0.8%. What's the short vs long term narrative. Markets see red on concern FAANG’s will bite into markets, while there is worry the Fed won’t cut rates this year as markets has priced in Ahead of the Fed, ECB, and BOE meeting this week, for the first time in 2023, with the central banks potentially setting the course of interest rates for the year, risk management resulted in traders and investors booking profits ahead of end of month, which dragged the S&P500(US500.I) down 1.3% and the Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) 2.1%. The worry is that the market believes the Fed will only hike by 0.25% this week and 0.25% next month. Two and done, before cutting in July. There is also a risk the Fed says it has “more work to do”, which could send equities into a tailspin. Our view is given financial conditions have improved, and there is a 20% chance of a recession, the Fed can keep rates higher for longer. This is why we think there could be a short term potential correction, so potentially consider taking profits and buying downside optionality (puts), and consider tight stops. Secondly, the worry is that major tech company earnings will continue to slump, with average overall  earnings down 0.3% this quarter, across the 145 of the S&P500 companies. This is why profit taking in Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet is occurring ahead of them reporting results. Ultimately, we think their outlooks could set the tone for equities this year. Consider FAANG names like Facebook/Meta are up 61%, Apple is up 10%, Amazon is up 20% and Google’s parent Alphabet is up 12% from recent lows. Click here for more on US earnings. Read next: Major Currency Pairs Are Waiting For Central Banks Decisions, USD/JPY Pair Rose Above 130.00, | FXMAG.COM Commodity short term pull back risk – with prices already down from fresh peaks; oil down 5.6%, iron ore, copper and aluminium lose 2% ahead of the Fed   On Monday oil dropped 2.4%, while most commodities lost almost 1%, with the markets awaiting further evidence China is picking up demand - just as BHP, Rio and FMG alluded to in their quarterly results. It seems traders are torn between real demand physically rising, but awaiting the Fed’s decision this week, which could result in the US dollar spiking, that would ultimately pressure commodity prices down. So these factors raise the risk of a short-term correction across the board. That said, resources prices have been really strong up 17-70% on from their lows. In 2023 alone iron ore and copper are up 9%, Aluminium up 11%, spot gold up 5%. However, with commodity prices falling, it also raises the alarm that Aussie dollar and the Aussie share market could be at risk of a short term correction or consolidation as well. The key is to watch the US dollar index. However keep in mind, over the longer term, commodity prices are supported higher, underpinned by rising demand over course of the year, and lower physical supply. For more on commodities, see Saxo’s Commitments of Traders report, that highlights broad buying slowed in recent weeks. Australian shares hold steady, defying negative leads from Wall Street. Australian retail sales fall off a cliff, borrowing falls Australia’s share market, as measured by the ASX200(ASXSP200.I) opened 0.3% higher today at 7,501 defying the futures and US markets negative lead. Not only are Australia shares outperforming US shares this year, but also UK’s FTSE. However, given materials prices could be at risk of a shorter term pull-back, it’s worth pointing out the technical indicators suggest the ASX200’s uptrend is weakening. Our Technical Analyst suggests a possible short term correction down to 7,167 should not be ruled out. However, over the longer term, we think upside in the ASX200 is intact with mining companies to report some of the strongest earnings on record, and provide their strongest outlooks in several years amid China reopening. For stocks, ETFs and baskets to watch, click here.  In company news today, Gold Road Resources (GOR) reported a drop in production in the prior quarter and higher costs due to inflationary pressure, but guided for higher grades in 2023. This follows Oz Minerals (OZL) also guiding for higher costs, which paints a picture of what we can expect for full year earnings season next month. In economic news, retail sales fell 3.9% in December, shocking the market, which expected sales to only decline 0.3%. On top of that, borrowing data also missed expectations. Borrowing rose 0.3% in December, vs consensus expecting lending to rise 0.5%. Today’s data is telling as it shows interest rates have taken effect on the consumer, and supports the market thinking that the RBA could potentially pause and then cut rates later this year.   In FX the US dollar picks up, pushing most currencies off course The US dollar index has bounced up off it low and risen 0.5% and pressured most currencies lower, with the Aussie dollar (AUDUSD) falling 0.8% from its high, with the Aussie buying 0.7061 US. The Aussie against the US has fallen under its 200-day moving average, while there is caution the Fed’s Wednesday’s decision could cause the US dollar to rise. Should the Fed only hike by 0.25% as expected and guide for one more hike, or if the Fed mentions its hikes have been effective, or that it sees interest rates having a lag effect, then the AUDUSD could potentially rally back up. Supporting longer term upside in the Aussie is the rise of China’s economy and commodity buying. From a technical perspective, the bulls may like to hear the 50 day moving crossed above the 200, indicating the longer term rally could remain intact, despite the RSI indicating, there are currently more sellers right now, than buyers.  Stay tuned to Saxo's inspiration page for trading and investing ideas. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: Video: Will FAANGs results bite into markets and what if the Fed says it won’t cut rates this year, like the market thinks | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

The US dollar was on an upward trend against its major trading partners early Tuesday ahead of a busy schedule of data releases for markets. The Fed is coming soon. The US central bank is expected to raise interest rates again to fight inflation. However, fears seem to be growing that the price of victory here may be a recession. USD/JPY The Japanese yen (JPY) continues to be supported by fresh speculation that high inflation could lead the Bank of Japan to adopt a more hawkish stance later this year. Also, the overall weaker tone around stock markets further reinforces the safe haven for the JPY. This, along with the underlying bearish sentiment around the US dollar, puts some downward pressure on USD/JPY. The pair lost in the earlier trading hours but is trading above 130.10 again. EUR/USD The euro fell to USD 1.08 in the last session of January, but remains close to nine-month highs. Investors await the ECB's monetary policy decision on Thursday, with the central bank expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since 2008. At the same time, data indicating an unexpected growth in the euro area in Q4 2022 by 0.1%, beating market forecasts of a decrease of 0.1%, and fresh CPI data for France and Spain, showing an increase in inflation in January, gave hope that The ECB will soon end its tightening cycle. On the negative side, retail sales in Germany fell by 5.3%MoM in December, much worse than expected. The EUR/USD pair has been falling since the morning, even significantly in the European session, but remains above 1.08 and trades at 1.0850. Read next: The Government Pension Fund Global Suffers Losses| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The cable continued its decline in the early hours of the Asian session, falling below the 1.2350 level. GBP/USD saw a slight rebound to trade just above the 1.2350 level heading into the European open where the dollar bull returned pushing GBP/USD towards the 1.23000 handle. The GBP/USD pair remains under bearish pressure and is currently trading at 1.2321. The rally on the GBP/USD pair appears to have lost momentum, however, given the key risk events, the move could be due to market participants repositioning ahead of the storm. With the focus on central banks, there is still a real possibility of a policy divergence between the FED and the BoE, which should benefit the cable in some way. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points while the Bank of England by 50 basis points as it fights persistent inflation. ING strategists said they expected BoE's decision to have a broadly neutral impact on the pound against the dollar. AUD/USD AUD/USD remains under strong selling pressure for the second day in a row on Tuesday and drops to more than a week low ahead of the North American session. The Australian dollar fell towards $0.70, retreating further from recent highs after data showed the country's retail sales fell much more than expected in December as heightened inflationary pressures and higher interest rates dampened consumer spending. Still, Australians are supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to fight inflation, expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in February and China's swift reopening after Covid restrictions have boosted the global economic outlook. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 101.65 low during the early Asian session on Wednesday, testing the 101.63 lows earlier. The pullback was expected and projected with a potential support zone defined as 101.60-70 earlier. Also, note that prices peaked through 102.20-30 before turning lower to produce a meaningful retracement. The near targets are 102.50 and above 103.00. The US dollar index terminated its larger-degree decline, which started from 114.70 earlier, around 101.10 as seen on the 4H chart here. The lower-degree waves seem to be working on the higher side and a sharp rally could be expected from here with 101.25 support intact. The bulls will remain inclined to target 105.35, which serves as strong resistance. The US dollar index might be preparing to retrace its entire drop between 114.70 and 101.00 in the next few weeks. The potential upside targets are 106.50 and up to 109.50. Also, note that 109.50 is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 101.00. So, a high probability remains for a bearish turn if prices reach there. Trading idea: Potential rally against 100.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310919

Everything is pointing to the fact that today's well-telegraphed 25bp hike by the Fed will be the penultimate move before ending the cycle. However, Chair Powell and the FOMC may see little interest in sounding materially less hawkish just yet. Ultimately, a push-back against a pivot and rate-cut speculation could hit risk assets and lift the dollar today Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell USD: Hawkish Fed can lift the dollar The dollar enters FOMC day after having shown some resilience over the past few sessions, which was likely the consequence of some defensive positioning ahead of key central bank meetings, which kept risk assets capped. Still, the last important piece of data before the Federal Reserve announcement – yesterday’s Employment Cost Index – offered more reasons to think the Fed is indeed close to the peak. Labour costs eased for a fourth consecutive quarter in 4Q, moving from 1.2% to 1.0%, the same levels as the fourth quarter of 2021. This is likely easing some concerns in Washington about inflation stickiness, and underpins a scenario where slowing price pressures favour less hawkish rhetoric. The question is whether such unwinding in the hawkish narrative will already emerge in today’s FOMC announcement. We doubt that. As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect a 25bp rate hike today, which is the consensus view and is fully priced in by the swaps market. We think that Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues simply have little interest in sending strong signals that they are indeed close to the peak, which only risks generating a premature fall in interest rates. A reiteration that ongoing rate increases remain appropriate, inflation is high and that the jobs market remains tight despite slowing growth, seems to us the most likely content of today’s communication “package” by Powell. He will most likely be asked about the current market pricing for around 50bp of easing in the second half of the year. Using the same rationale, Powell still has all the interest in pushing back against rate cut speculation. In practice, we suspect the Fed will end up cutting more than 50bp as the US economic slack deepens, but that is not a story for today’s announcement. So, we are in the camp of expecting Powell to maintain his hawkish rhetoric despite this appearing less appropriate given the backdrop of slowing inflation and growth. This outcome may ultimately have some negative implications for risk and give the dollar some support, as bets on a pivot, and potentially on rate cuts, are scaled back. Any communication missteps or deliberate dovish tilts, on the other hand, can surely revive that dollar bear trend that appears to have halted lately. We also have some US data to watch today: ISM manufacturing, ADP payrolls and JOLTS jobs openings. Substantial surprises on those releases are likely needed to drive major dollar moves ahead of such a big event like the FOMC. Francesco Pesole EUR: Inflation surprise already priced in? EUR/USD will inevitably be heavily impacted by the post-FOMC reaction today. In line with our view for a positive impact on the dollar, we think the 1.0800 support could be heavily tested after the Fed announcement. Before that, however, all eyes will be on the eurozone inflation figures, which should show more stickiness than previously thought after evidence of persistent price pressure in Spain and France. We suspect much of this inflation story has now been priced in, and a still quite hawkish pricing for European Central Bank tightening (150bp of hikes by June) suggests the room for further increases in rate expectations – and by extension, for another big ECB-driven EUR rally - has shrunk for now. We think that EUR/USD will ultimately come out weaker from these two days of central bank activity (here’s our ECB market preview). An exploration of the 1.0700-1.0750 range is surely possible in the near term, even though the longer-term outlook keeps pointing to a dollar decline and EUR/USD strength. Francesco Pesole GBP: Downside risks from a hawkish Fed Stronger ECB rate expectations are likely to be blamed for the strengthening in EUR/GBP beyond the 0.8800 level. As discussed in the EUR section above, we think there is now less scope for the ECB to push the euro even higher, which means more fuel to the EUR/GBP rally may be mostly a function of risk sentiment rather than monetary policy divergence. Indeed, since the pound tends to be more sensitive to global risk sentiment than the euro, the risks are skewed to the upside for EUR/GBP today given our baseline scenario for a hawkish Fed weighing on risk assets. Cable may drop to the 1.2200 mark today. Francesco Pesole SEK: Krona undermined by domestic woes The Swedish krona has been a negative standout in the G10 space over the past few days, as unstable risk sentiment offered a breeding ground for rising bearish bets linked to a worsening domestic outlook in Sweden. We analyse this theme in more detail in “Sweden: Krona increasingly pricing in domestic woes”. In short, EUR/SEK is currently 2.5% overvalued in the near term as markets appear to be pricing in the increasing likelihood of a pessimistic scenario for the Swedish property market and the economy. Since we don’t believe the risk of a black swan scenario in Sweden has materially increased, we think that SEK will recover gradually over the coming months. Looking at the very short-term however, SEK’s sensitivity to risk sentiment still puts it in a vulnerable position today ahead of the Fed announcement. EUR/SEK is currently trading around 3% below its historic highs (11.68 in 2009), and risks that those levels will be tested in the short-term (although not our base case) have admittedly risen lately. We still target sub-11.00 levels before the summer, as recently discussed in our EUR/SEK scenario analysis. Francesco Pesole Read this article on THINK

USD/CAD licks its wounds after falling the most in a week. Oil price struggles despite softer US Dollar as markets brace for OPEC+ verdict. Softer US data, yields join bearish bias for the Fed to lure Loonie pair sellers. Canada GDP appeared unimpressive but PMIs may offer intermediate moves. USD/CAD remains defensive around 1.3310 amid sluggish markets on early Wednesday, treading water after reversing from a one-week high the previous day. The Loonie pair’s latest inaction portrays the cautious mood ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. Also challenging the quote is the Oil traders' anxiety before the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known collectively as OPEC+. That said, the WTI crude oil, Canada’s main export earner, grinds higher past $79.00 following a strong reversal from the three-week on Tuesday. It should be noted that Reuters has already turned down the odds of any change in the OPEC+ JMMC’s previous verdict favoring the supply cuts from major producers. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains indecisive after reversing from a one-week high as an early signal for the US inflation printed downbeat figures. That said, US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the fourth quarter (Q4) eased to 1.0% versus 1.1% market forecasts and 1.2% prior readings. Further, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence eased to 107.10 in January versus 108.3 prior. It should be noted that no major attention could be given to the US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January which rose to 44.3 versus 41 expected and 44.9 previous readings. At home, Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for November grew by 0.1% MoM, matching October's expansion of 0.1% but rose past the market expectation of 0%. It should be observed that the pre-event cautiousness joins China’s Consecutive sixth below 50.0 print of the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which in turn probes the Oil price and put a floor under the USD/CAD. Additionally, mildly offered S&P 500 Futures act as an additional challenge for the Loonie pair sellers. On the contrary, downbeat yields challenge the US Dollar bulls ahead of the key event. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields remain sluggish near 3.51% and defend the previous day’s pullback. Looking forward, dovish bias over the Fed joins the likely unimpressive OPEC+ meeting to keep USD/CAD bears hopeful. Also important will be the monthly PMI data for the US and Canada. Technical analysis Unless providing a daily close beyond the one-month-old descending resistance line, close to 1.3380 by the press time, USD/CAD is on the way to late 2022 low surrounding 1.3225.

USD/CAD holds lower grounds near 2.5-month bottom, fades bounce off 200-EMA of late. Clear downside break of short-term key support line favors sellers. 50-EMA holds the key to bull’s conviction, 1.3700 appears a tough nut to crack for them. USD/CAD remains pressured around the lowest levels since mid-November 2022 as it pokes the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) during early Thursday. In doing so, the Loonie pair prints mild losses during the three-day losing streak. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained trading below the 50-EMA and a clear break of the eight-month-old ascending support line seems to keep the USD/CAD bears hopeful. Also favoring the sellers is the absence of an oversold RSI (14) line. That said, the Loonie pair bears are very much capable of breaking the aforementioned key 200-EMA support surrounding 1.3260. However, multiple levels marked since July 2022, surrounding 1.3230-20, portray strong support for the USD/CAD sellers to break if they wish to keep the reins. Following that, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s April-October 2022 run-up near the 1.3000 psychological magnet will be a crucial level to lure the USD/CAD bears. On the contrary, a daily closing beyond the support-turned-resistance line from June 2022, close to 1.3320 by the press time, could activate the pair’s corrective bounce. Even so, the USD/CAD bulls are likely to remain skeptical unless witnessing a daily closing beyond the 50-EMA level surrounding 1.3450. In a case where the quote crosses the 1.3450 hurdle, the odds of its rally toward the multiple hurdles nearing 1.3700 can’t be ruled out. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected

The dollar has broken to new lows for the year after a relaxed-sounding Fed Chair Powell said there were the first clear signs of disinflation. He also failed to push back too aggressively on lower bond yields. Attention turns to Europe, with rate meetings in the eurozone, the UK, and the Czech Republic. Expect European FX to remain bid and the dollar offered The dollar broke to new lows for the year after the Fed's press conference USD: Phlegmatic Powell offers little pushback against the rally The dollar was relatively unchanged on the release of last night's FOMC statement, but Fed Chair Powell's press conference comments sent it around 1% lower across the board. Listening to the press conference, a few things that stood out to us were: for the first time, we can see the disinflation process has started, a refusal to push back against the softening in financial conditions in the form of lower bond yields and higher equities, a data-dependent approach to what the Fed may do with their dot plots in March (lower the expected peak in the tightening cycle?) a near Goldilocks scenario where inflation can come down, while unemployment does not have to rise US rates softened on the press conference, with pricing for the Fed funds rate in December 2023 being cut by 10bp to 4.40%. In fact, one can argue that if US rates are not going to be cut as much as the market expects later this year, it will be because of decent growth, rather than sticky inflation. No wonder equity markets liked the press conference and the dollar softened as investors chased growth stories. As we mentioned in the FOMC review, lower volatility in the rates space will be feeding into lower FX volatility. The MOVE index, an index of implied volatility across the US Treasury curve has dropped back to levels last seen in March 2022. Assuming no major fireworks from today's ECB/BoE meeting or tomorrow's US jobs report, lower volatility will support the carry trade. Here, we like the Mexican peso where high risk-adjusted carry and, unlike the CEE high yielders, positive real interest rates should keep the peso very much in demand. Positioning is probably the biggest factor preventing a further dollar decline right now, but the benign macro story does favour DXY continuing to drift lower to the 100 area. Chris Turner EUR: Too early for the ECB to soften its hawkish stance The European Central Bank announces its policy decision at 1415CET today and President Christine Lagarde holds her press conference at 1345CET. A 50bp hike is widely expected as is a hawkish message that will support market pricing of a further 75-100bp of tightening into the summer. Please see our ECB preview here and also the key factors that will drive FX and rates markets here. Our rates strategists think that Lagarde could push back against 2024 easing expectations and see eurozone rates rise in the five-year part of the curve.  EUR/USD opens in Europe above 1.10 - powered by last night's benign FOMC meeting and press conference. Two-year EUR:USD swap differentials have narrowed into 108bp - the narrowest advantage for dollar rates since late 2021. As we discussed in our EUR/USD forecast revision article, a sharp narrowing in rate differentials stands to become a bigger driver of EUR/USD this year and should carry it to the 1.15 area in the second quarter. For the shorter term - there is not much resistance now until the 1.12 area. But buy-side positioning is the longest in the euro since the summer of 2021 meaning that the rally could prove hard work. The EUR/USD story is positive, however. Chris Turner The Danish central bank (DN) is set to follow the ECB with a rate hike today. There has been increasing speculation that the DN will hike by 10bp less than the ECB to widen the EUR-DKK rate gap. EUR/DKK is trading around 7.4400, so it currently has a cushion against the lower bound of the peg band (which is around 7.4360). With inflation running at 8.7% in Denmark, we think there is a higher chance that the DN will prioritise fighting inflation for now and follow the ECB with a 50bp hike, which should keep a cap on EUR/DKK for now. After all, the prospect of another 50bp ECB hike in March means that the DN will likely have another chance to under-deliver relatively soon, should EUR/DKK come under fresh pressure and FX intervention start to appear unsustainable.  Francesco Pesole GBP: Again, too soon for the BoE to go soft on inflation 1300CET should see the Bank of England hike the Bank Rate 50bp to 4.00%. Governor Andrew Bailey holds a press conference at 1330CET. Please see our full BoE preview here - including voting patterns for the nine MPC members. Some market participants see a pattern of the BoE hiking forcefully and having a hawkish statement, but treading more dovishly in the press conference. On balance, we think Governor Bailey will not want to push back against expectations for further hikes to 4.25/4.50% this summer but may push back against the cut starting to be priced for December. Benign global conditions are supportive for the risk-sensitive sterling and suggest GBP/USD could make a run at the 1.2450/2500 area this week. EUR/GBP has drifted higher again. On balance, we would favour continued outperformance given the greater scope for convergence in eurozone and sterling rates at the shorter end of the curve. EUR/GBP may end the quarter near 0.89, but push up to the 0.90/91 area later in the year. Chris Turner CZK: CNB to confirm wait-and-see approach Today, the Czech National Bank meeting is on the agenda in the region. We expect rates and the FX commitment to remain unchanged, so the main focus will be on the central bank's new forecast and the governor's press conference. With strong rate cut expectations priced in, the main question for today will be what the CNB's expectations are for January inflation, which will set the inflation path for this year. In general, the new forecast should show a higher inflation trajectory compared to the November version, but at the same time, the koruna is more than 3% stronger compared to CNB expectations. The Czech koruna has reached its strongest levels in more than a decade in recent weeks and is, in our view, the most overweight currency position held by investors in the region at the moment. We believe the main driver right now is falling gas prices and improving sentiment in Europe rather than local factors. However, the central bank plays an important role in determining the koruna. Thus, any hint of an end to the FX intervention regime would likely lead to a sharp depreciation. Overall, however, we believe that the CNB and the koruna do not have too much to offer at the moment. Although gas prices may push to stronger levels in the short term, we think the koruna is too strong currently and rather expect a return to the 24.00 EUR/CZK level. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Markets questioned the hawkish message by both the Fed and the ECB this week, but we think Powell gave more reasons to reasonably fuel dovish expectations. Still, the ECB communication hiccups mean that EUR/USD may struggle to break higher before the end of the first quarter. Today, eyes on payrolls and ISM services: the dollar likely faces downside risks ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chair Jerome Powell USD: Downside risks from data today The dollar has essentially erased all the post-FOMC losses after markets questioned the hawkish rhetoric by the ECB and European rates went on a huge rally yesterday. We analyse what the last two days of central bank meetings have meant for EUR/USD in this note.   It’s been quite clear that markets have doubted both Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s attempts to hang on to hawkish communication, although dovish bets on the Fed appear more strongly founded at this stage. This is both because Powell seemed more relaxed about the easing in financial conditions and did not convey urgency in pushing back against rate cuts, and because the Fed has taken rates into a much more restrictive territory which inevitably leaves a larger room for easing in 2023. What is clear is that markets will continue to focus heavily on data. With volatility abating after the key Fed and ECB announcements and some of those defensive trades (due to the imminence of key risk events) being unwound, today’s non-farm payrolls release in the US brings mostly downside risks for the dollar, in our view. After all, a tight jobs market has already been factored in by the Fed (Powell even admitted inflation might fall without hurting employment), but it’s really the declining inflation story that is suggesting a peak in Fed funds rates is imminent. Accordingly, markets may focus more on the wage growth figures rather than the headline employment print. Any evidence that wage growth is losing pace and/or that hiring is slowing down materially would likely fuel rate cut expectations further, and hit the dollar. US 2-year rates are currently trading 10bp above the psychological 4.00% mark: a break below may exacerbate a dollar slump. Should such dollar weakness materialise, we think that high-beta currencies may emerge as key winners thanks to the positive impact on risk assets. ISM service numbers will also be closely watched after the latest release was a key driver of the negative re-rating in US growth. Francesco Pesole Read next: Starbucks Revenues Are High Despite High Costs| FXMAG.COM ECB: Dealing with unclear communication Should today’s payrolls trigger a dollar contraction, the euro may emerge as a laggard in the G10 space. Markets are strongly questioning the ability of the ECB to keep hiking at a “stable” pace (as the ECB said in its statement) beyond the March meeting. Here are the review notes from our economics team of yesterday’s statement and press conference. As our ECB watcher puts it, Lagarde’s press conference brought more fog than clarity. And we think it is indeed the communication hiccups in Frankfurt that is driving EUR/USD weakness. We remain of the view that at least 75bp of extra tightening will be delivered by the ECB, which still puts EUR/USD in a position for a big rally in the second quarter – when US short-term rates may come off more steadily. The ECB communication troubles may cap EUR/USD before then. Today, the balance of risks is still tilted to the upside for EUR/USD as US jobs data will be the key driver. The question is how comfortable markets are with re-testing 1.1000: we suspect a break above that level is a bit premature unless US figures come in very weak. Francesco Pesole GBP: BoE close to the peak The Bank of England hiked rates by 50bp yesterday, but offered a number of signals that it is indeed close to the peak. As discussed in our economics team’s reaction piece, a key hint that the MPC is laying the groundwork for the end of its tightening cycle is that it has dropped its pledge to raise rates “forcefully” (i.e. by 50bp). Incidentally, the BoE’s two-year inflation projection – a key driver of policy decisions – is now well below target. We still doubt this was the last hike of the cycle, and expect another 25bp move at the next meeting in March. Markets are torn around a move in either March or May, but are still fully pricing in an additional 25bp of tightening. The pound was slightly weaker after an initially positive reaction to the BoE statement. In practice, it appears that the BoE is not diverging much from market expectations, which means that it may be up to data in the UK to drive any large swings in the pound rather than surprises from the BoE. With markets doubting the ECB's hawkishness, EUR/GBP may manage to stay below 0.9000 for now, although a break higher seems highly likely over the coming months. Francesco Pesole CZK: CNB continues to support FX but is not a decisive factor The Czech National Bank (CNB) left rates and the FX intervention regime unchanged yesterday, in line with expectations. However, there was still room for a hawkish surprise. During the press conference, the Governor said that the record-strong koruna is not a problem for the economy and on the contrary, it is a welcome inflation-fighter. He thus implicitly confirmed that the intervention regime will be with us for a long time despite the fact that the CNB last intervened in September last year. Moreover, he told reporters that current expectations of significant rate cuts this year are wrong and rates will remain at higher levels for longer. However, the main driver at the moment, in our view, are global factors – falling gas prices and a higher EUR/USD – and the CNB is more of a complementary factor for the positive koruna. Moreover, the koruna still offers decent and stable carry. Thus, the main enemy at the moment is the market positioning, which was already the longest in the CEE before the CNB meeting in our view. Thus, the koruna may test 23.70 levels in the short term but the EUR/CZK move lower is limited in our view and the koruna will be rather stable compared to CEE peers. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK TagsFX EURUSD Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The dollar rose slightly on Friday, maintaining some momentum after jumps in the previous session after a series of decisions by central banks in Europe. The rise in the USD can be attributed to some shift in trading position ahead of the closely watched US monthly employment report. Trading was relatively limited as markets awaited the latest US employment data later in the day, which could change US Federal Reserve policy. Weekly initial jobless claims in the US released on Thursday indicated strength in the labor market and boosted expectations for strong non-farm payrolls (NFP). USD/JPY The US dollar gained on the last day of the week and looks set to continue its bounce from the nine-month low recorded on Thursday, which is seen as a tailwind for USD/JPY. The Japanese yen, on the other hand, continues to benefit from expectations that high inflation could result in a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) later this year. Bets were lifted by Japan's nationwide core inflation, which hit its highest annualized level since December 1981. This is seen as another factor keeping USD/JPY in check, at least for now. The USD/JPY pair traded high around 128.80 at the beginning of the day, but fell in the following hours. Currently, the USD/JPY pair is trading below 128.40. EUR/USD Yesterday, the European Central Bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point on Thursday, but the euro fell below 1.0900 after ECB comments. During the ECB press conference, President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that the outlook for the eurozone has become less worrying for growth and inflation.  The ECB noted the likelihood of another similar rate hike next month, the meeting and its aftermath were in line with market expectations. Early Friday, ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus said an interest rate cut this year was not likely. With a similarly hawkish accent, policymaker Peter Kazimierz noted that he did not see the March interest rate hike as the last one. These comments seem to help EUR/USD contain losses for now. The euro posted slight gains against the US dollar on Friday, thanks in part to news that the eurozone economy saw some gains last month. The EUR/USD pair in the European session is trading above 1.09 again at around 1.0940. Read next: Japanese Startup Aerwins Technologies Will Be On NASDAQ| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The Bank of England raised interest rates for the tenth time but hinted that its tightening cycle may be coming to an end, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference following the Fed's 25 bp rate hike that the process of "disinflation" in the United States seemed to be in progress. Moreover, BoE President Andrew Bailey said that inflation will continue to fall this year and faster in the second half of 2023. In fact, the central bank forecast that the annual CPI inflation in the UK will fall from the current 10.5% to around 4% in 2020. toward the end of the year. This, in turn, has fueled speculation that the current cycle of rate hikes may be coming to an end and weakening the pound sterling. GBP/USD gained momentum during the European trading hours and went positive above 1.2250 during the day. Currently, the GBP/USD pair is on the border of the level. AUD/USD The Australian dollar falls below $0.71, pulling back slightly from nearly eight-month highs on overall dollar strength. Despite this, Australians continue to be supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to tighten its policy. Currently, Aussie Pair is trading at around 0.7060. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

A considerably calmer week ahead compared to this week, at least in terms of the economic calendar.  Monday 06.02. 09:30 GMT, UK Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) January UK Purchasing Managers Index provides insight into the activity level within the construction industry as reported by purchasing managers. This measure gives an understanding of the condition of the UK construction industry, as purchasing managers are considered to have access to first-hand data on their company's performance.   A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction in the construction industry. UK construction companies have signalled a resuming slowdown in business activity growth since the November data came out, reflecting slower demand and reduced risk appetite due to higher borrowing costs and uncertainties about the economic outlook. The forecast for the January PMI is 49.6, indicating a slight contraction in the construction sector.  Higher than expected reading may have a bullish effect on the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the GBP.  Impact: GBP Tuesday 07.02. 13:30 GMT, US Trade Balance (Dec) The trade balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reporting period. A positive figure indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported. The US trade balance has historically been negative, and a worsening trend could be observed over the long term. In March 2022, the US trade balance surpassed -100 billion USD for the first time in history, and since then, it has fallen to -61.50 billion USD, according to the November data. December's data are expected to show a slight deterioration to -68.70 billion USD. A higher-than-forecast reading may be seen as bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-forecast reading (larger negative number) may be interpreted as bearish for the USD. An outflow of USD from the country and lower foreign demand for US products during a trade deficit could lead to a depreciation of the currency, which in turn may boost the country's exports as its goods become cheaper for the rest of the world. Impact: USD Read next: Japanese Startup Aerwins Technologies Will Be On NASDAQ| FXMAG.COM Friday 10.02. 13:30 GMT, Canada Employment Change (Jan) The employment change report shows the change in the number of people employed, which is an essential indicator of consumer spending. While an increase in the number of people in employment usually signals a positive move in economic expansion, market participants may be hoping for a lower number as this would indicate that the central bank's tightening policy is working and further interest rate hikes may not be necessary.  Previous figures for employment changes in Canada have been very volatile. While August saw a decline (-39.7 thousand jobs), September and November showed slight gains (+21.1 thousand and +10.1 thousand jobs, respectively), followed by increases of over 100 thousand in October and December. Friday's data for January are expected to show a possible increase of 8 thousand.  A higher-than-forecast reading may have a bullish effect on the Canadian dollar and a bearish effect on the stock market. In contrast, lower-than-forecast reading may have a bearish impact on the Canadian dollar and a bullish effect on the stock market. Impact: CAD, S&P/TSX Composite Index Stocks to watch Activision Blizzard (ATVI) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 12/2022. Forecast: 0.7946. Positive earnings surprise in 7 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Monday, February 6, after the market closes. Walt Disney (DIS) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 12/2022. Forecast: 1.51. Positive earnings surprise in 7 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Wednesday, February 8, after the market closes. AstraZeneca ADR (AZN) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 12/2022. Forecast: 0.6825. Positive earnings surprise in 7 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Thursday, February 9, before the market opens. PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 12/2022. Forecast: 1.19. Positive earnings surprise in 9 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Thursday, February 9, after the market closes. Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The dollar jumped on Friday after data showed that US employers created many more jobs in January than economists had expected, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more leeway to hold interest rate hikes. The dollar recently rose 1.12% to 102.92 on the day against a basket of currencies, the highest since Jan. 12 and is on track for its best day since Sept. 23. USD/JPY USD/JPY started the trading week at 130.4790. For a day and a half, the pair traded in the range of 129.80-130.45. Subsequently, the USD/JPY pair started its decline below the lower limit and dropped below the 129.00 level. Trading below 129.00 lasted until Friday where in the US session the USD/JPY pair sharply rebounded to above 131.00 and thus ended the trading week at 131.15. The final level was just below the week's high of USD/JPY at 131.1940. The difference between the highest and the nanny level of trading is quite large, because the pair reached the lowest level at 128.1160. EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair started the trading week at 1.0875. For a day and a half, the pair traded below 1.0900. After that, the EUR/USD pair rose above 1.0900 and reached a weekly high of 1.1030. Trading above 1.0900 continued until Friday, where in the US session the EUR/USD pair fell sharply below 1.0800 and thus ended the week of trading at the week's low at 1.0798. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points as expected and said it intends to make another 50 basis point hike in March, comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde weighed on the euro. Early Friday, ECB policymakers Gediminas Simkus and Peter Kazimierz said an interest rate cut this year was not likely. Read next: The UK Economy Expects A Decline And Is Gearing Up For Recession| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The Cable Pair started the week at 1.2404. For the next two days, the GBP/USD pair traded around 1.2300 until it broke out at 1.2400, after reaching the weekly high, the pair traded just below this level. The drop below 1.2300 came closer to Friday where the GBP/USD pair plummeted below 1.2100. GBP/USD ended the week at 1.2056, which is the lowest trading level of the week, the lowest since Jan. 6 and its worst day since Dec. 15. The Bank of England, as widely expected, raised its key rate by a further 50 basis points to 4%, its highest level since autumn 2008, indicative of more sustained price pressures. However, the BoE removed the wording that "they will respond with force if necessary." Moreover, BoE President Andrew Bailey said that inflation will continue to fall this year and faster in the second half of 2023. In fact, the central bank forecast that the annual CPI inflation in the UK will fall from the current 10.5% to around 4% in toward the end of the year. This, in turn, has fueled speculation that the current cycle of rate hikes may be coming to an end and weakening the pound sterling. AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair started trading at 0.7111. The pair then traded in the 0.7000-0.7075 range. On Thursday, the pair managed to break above 0.7100 and record a weekly high of 0.7156. Closer to Friday, the couple began their decline. The Aussie Pair ended the week at its lowest level of trade for the week, at 0.6924. The Australian awaits the RBA's interest rate decision on Tuesday 7 February. With the December quarter 2022 CPI print showing headline inflation is still running strong at 7.8 per cent, expectations are for a further increase in the cash rate. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

The dollar is around 10% off the highs seen in late September, and understandably the view is that the dollar bull cycle – which started summer 2021 – is well and truly over. Consensus expects the dollar to weaken further this year, and we agree Dollar bear trend could pick up speed in the second quarter At the heart of the bearish dollar view is the call that the Fed will shift to a reflationary stance in the second half of 2023, US short-dated yields will fall and those yield differentials will move against the dollar. This story should be particularly acute for EUR/USD, where sticky core inflation in the eurozone means that the European Central Bank will not be considering rate cuts until late 2024. At the same time, lower natural gas prices have seen the eurozone terms of trade improve markedly and justify fundamentally higher levels of the euro. Assuming that the China reopening story continues to evolve positively, we think this confluence of factors can drive EUR/USD steadily higher throughout 2023. Most of the gains, however, may come in the second quarter, when US inflation is seen falling quite sharply. Sustained EUR/USD gains beyond 1.15 may be harder to achieve in the second half – especially if US debt ceiling negotiations are pushed to the limit. Some would argue that the US debt ceiling is a bullish factor for the dollar – prompting a flight to quality. Yet the evidence from 2011 proves the contrary. Only were the US very close to an unthinkable sovereign debt default – i.e. extreme risk aversion – would the dollar derive any brief benefit. Read next: Elon Musk Was Found Not Guilty In The Tweets Case| FXMAG.COM USD/JPY should continue to fall throughout the year. Bank of Japan meetings will prove positive event risks for the yen as investors second-guess how quickly a new BoJ governing team will unwind the current very dovish settings. We target 120 here and the yen should outperform on the crosses whenever the benign investment conditions are challenged. Sterling is trading on a slightly steadier footing as the UK government attempts to restore fiscal credibility. The marginally better global investment environment is also helping the risk-sensitive pound. Sterling may hold its gains through the first half of the year as the Bank of England stays hawkish. But clearer signs of easing labour market and price pressures in the second half of 2023 will see conviction build of a forthcoming BoE easing cycle. EUR/GBP may well be ending the year nearer 0.90/91.  TagsFX Dollar   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

USD/CAD struggles to capitalize on a modest bullish gap opening on Monday. An uptick in crude oil prices underpins the Loonie and acts as a headwind. A combination of factors continues to benefit the USD and lends support. The USD/CAD pair fills the modest bullish gap opening on Monday and retreats to the 1.3400 mark during the early part of the European session. Crude oil prices edge higher and recover a part of Friday's slide to over a one-month low, which, in turn, is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie and acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid strong follow-through US Dollar buying interest. In fact, the USD Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, builds on Friday's solid recovery from a nine-month low and continues to draw support from a combination of factors. The upbeat US jobs data could allow the Fed to stick to its hawkish stance and keep raising rates. The expectations push the US Treasury bond yields higher, which, along with the risk-off environment, is seen benefitting the safe-haven greenback. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside and any meaningful slide is likely to get bought into. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Monday, leaving the USD at the mercy of the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment. Apart from this, traders will take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities around the USD/CAD pair.

The US dollar surged against its major trading partners early Monday ahead of a weak week of economic data and speeches by Fed officials resumed. The week starts calmly on Monday without key data. The US Monthly Employment Report (NFP) released on Friday showed that the economy added 517,000 jobs in January. jobs, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate. Moreover, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.4%, the lowest level since May 1969. USD/JPY The prevailing risk-avoiding environment – as indicated by the generally weaker tone in equity markets – provides a safe haven for the Japanese Yen (JPY) and acts as a headwind for USD/JPY. The yen came under pressure during the Asian session after it was reported that the Japanese government had approached Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiyi as a possible successor to Governor Kuroda. Market participants are of the opinion that Lieutenant Governor Amamiya will continue the policy of Governor Kuroda. The Japanese government has since dispelled rumors that it had approached Amamiya with a new BoJ governor to be announced in February. So USD/JPY started the week with a pattern above 132.00. Over the course of the day, the pair moved back below 132.00 but has now recovered and is trading at 132.1530. EUR/USD Rising tensions between the United States and China add to the bleak mood. On Friday, President Joe Biden postponed US Secretary of State Blinken's upcoming trip to China after a suspicious Beijing observation balloon that was flying in US skies was shot down. In terms of data, European figures were disappointing. On the one hand, Germany published December's factory orders, which fell by 10.1%YoY, much worse than expected. On the other hand, retail sales in the euro zone fell by 2.7% MoM in January. Moreover, we are likely to hear more aggressive statements from Lagarde, citing higher core inflation and growth forecasts. The EUR/USD pair stopped trading below 1.0790. At the beginning of the week, the EUR/USD pair is holding above 1.0765. Read next: Adani Group Company's Crisis Is Gaining Momentum, Finland Is The Happiest Country| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The British pound has not enjoyed a good reputation lately. The economic data was not strong enough to support sterling against its rivals, while the ongoing strikes and the threat of more in the coming weeks hit the mood. On Friday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release preliminary GDP data for Q4. Growth in the UK stalled in the fourth quarter of last year and may have reversed, fueling further recession fears. The GBP/USD pair tried to break above 1.2050 on Monday. Currently, the GBP/USD pair is trading above 1.2060. AUD/USD The Australian dollar collapsed on Friday after soaring US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data pushed the US dollar higher. Investors are cautious ahead of this week's decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points for the ninth consecutive time. Annual inflation in Australia rose 7.8% in December, the largest increase since 1990 and above market forecasts of 7.5%. The Aussie pair in the early hours of trading tried to catch up and climbed above 0.6940 but failed to maintain momentum and the Aussie Pair trades below that level again near 0.6900. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through the 103.40 highs during the New York session on Monday before finding resistance. The index is seen to be trading close to 103.10 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare for the next run higher up to 104.50. Intraday dips remain possible and support comes in just below 103.00 to consider adding potential longs. The US dollar index is now on its way to carving a meaningful retracement towards 106.50 and up to 109.40 levels in the next several weeks. The initial price resistance is also seen through 105.35, which should be the near-term target for the bulls to break higher. We can expect a meaningful pullback thereafter through 103.00 before the rally could resume. The US dollar index is expected to reach the 109.00-40 zone to complete its corrective rally, which is also the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 100.50 levels respectively. A high probability remains for prices to turn lower from there but a persistent push above 111.65 will confirm that the bulls are looking to target fresh highs. Trading plan: Potential bullish wave against 100.50 Good luck!   Relevance up to 03:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/311597

The current market enviornment resembles last week's pre-FOMC one: the dollar is regaining ground as markets position themselves for a hawkish tone from Powell. The difference is that, today, strong jobs gains give Powell an extra incentive to push back against lower rates. The dollar recovery may run a little longer. Expect ECB hawkish comments as well. Source: Shutterstock   We have published our latest FX views and forecasts in the February edition of FX Talking: "Soft landing, hard landing, no landing?" USD: Powell's second hawkish attempt can support the dollar One week ago, we were observing how the dollar had regained the favour of the market as investors were positioning for a reiteration of the hawkish rhetoric by Fed Chair Powell after the FOMC meeting. As we now know, Powell actually conveyed the message of being relatively relaxed with loosening financial conditions last Wednesday. Today, however, we are looking at a market environment that highly resembles last week’s pre-FOMC one. Markets have been squaring short-dollar positions in the past two sessions as expectations have grown that Powell will deliver a hawkish speech at the Economic Club in Washington today. The key difference with last week is that Fed hawkish bets are now backed by a shockingly strong January jobs report (we recommend looking at our economics team’s note on the US labour market published yesterday). Let’s assume that a goldilocks scenario where inflation declines without seriously harming employment is becoming a more central scenario for the Fed. Well, even so, it seems a rather appropriate time for Powell to deliver one last hawkish “hurrah” today. In a way, many are seeing at least some degree of protest against the market reaction to last week’s FOMC as necessary. Yesterday, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic said that strong job gains could mean a higher peak rate. Indeed, it looks like markets have already positioned themselves for some pushback against easing rate expectations, but the surprise strength of the US jobs report gives Powell ample room to sound more hawkish than expected. Ultimately, the ongoing upward correction may run a little longer before losing steam. Incidentally, the overall environment is doing little to lure markets back into risk assets and away from the safe-haven dollar. US-China tensions are a source of concerns and likely weighing on global sentiment, and the eurozone cannot count on a supportive data flow to keep the growth re-rating process going. It looks like only another under-delivery (i.e. dovish surprise) by Powell can hurt the dollar today. Francesco Pesole EUR: ECB hawks to the rescue EUR/USD has pressed lower and may re-test the 1.0700 support today. There isn’t a whole lot driving the euro slump from the domestic side. In what is now becoming an increasingly common occurrence, ECB members appear to be rushing to the rescue in the week after the ECB meeting. The goal is simple: convince markets the hawkish bias is untouched, hoping to regain some of the market’s trust that President Lagarde seems to have lost. We’ll hear from three ECB hawks - Schnabel, Knot and Kazimir – and one “dove” – Villeroy – who recently aligned its view with the broader ECB message on further tightening. All in all, a slew of hawkish comments and rate protests should be on the cards today. This could give some modest support to the euro, but we believe this evening’s speech by Powell will have broader and longer-lasting implications for EUR/USD. A contraction to the 1.0600-1.0650 area by the end of this week is now looking increasingly likely. A pushback against the dovish market reaction is also what we have seen from BoE officials so far, with Caroline Mann (a hawk) firmly ruling out the peak rate has been reached. Today, we’ll hear from MPC members Ramsden, Pill and Cunliffe. With the rate protest coming from both the UK and the eurozone, EUR/GBP may hover around 0.8900-0.8950 for now.   Francesco Pesole AUD: RBA deliver hawkish hike The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25bp, in line with consensus, and signalled more rate increases are on their way. As we expected, sticky inflation has forced the RBA to sound more hawkish and to push rate expectations higher. Here is our economist’s review of the meeting. Markets are now pricing in a peak rate at 3.9% from around 3.6% before the announcement, but we think this is still underestimating how far the RBA will go. Our projections see rates hit 4.1% in the second quarter, and a potential first rate cut only in the fourth quarter. We continue to see AUD as the most attractive currency in G10 in the months ahead. Indeed, recent deterioration in US-China relations are a concern, but Australia still seems on track to easing trade tensions with Beijing, and the room for further hawkish repricing in RBA rate expectations means that 0.75 in AUD/USD could be reached during a soft-USD environment in 2Q22. Francesco Pesole CEE: The US dollar brought pain to the region The EUR/USD decline hit CEE FX hard yesterday. The US Dollar may cause pain to the region for a while longer and the local calendar has little to offer today. This morning's data showed Hungary's industrial production for December and the Czech Republic will release retail sales. Later today the Czech National Bank (CNB) will release FX reserve statistics including FX transactions for December. However, we don't suspect the CNB has intervened in this period. In our view, we may have last seen the central bank in the market in late September. However, we think the total intervention bill has reached CZK25.6bn since mid-May last year, roughly 16% of the CNB's FX reserves, and today's numbers won't change that. On the FX front, the key will be which direction EUR/USD goes and regional factors won't do much about it. After yesterday's 1.9% depreciation, the main focus today will be on Hungarian forint. Yesterday's move has certainly eased the pressure on heavy long positioning, but that may not mean the end of the upward journey. In our view, the Hungarian forint has gone too far and our model linked to EUR/USD indicates levels more around 392 EUR/HUF. However, the US dollar move will be decisive factor today. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The US dollar was mixed against its major trading partners early Tuesday - up against the euro and pound, down against the yen and the Canadian dollar. Today, Fed head Powell will speak. Powell will have to reconcile last week's decision by the Federal Open Market Committee to slow the pace of interest rate hikes with the exceptionally strong employment data for January released on Friday. In addition to Powell, Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision, Michael Barr, is set to speak at 14:00 ET. For the rest of the week there will be Fed officials. USD/JPY USD/JPY is rising after the US Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, and Chairman Powell said the central bank could deliver a few more rate hikes to bring inflation down to target. Additionally, reports that Bank of Japan Vice Governor Masayoshi Amamiya could replace the current Haruhiko Kuroda as central bank governor provided some support for USD/JPY as the BoJ's ultra-easy policy is expected to continue. USD/JPY is under some selling pressure on Tuesday and pulls some of the previous day's gains down to around 133.00, a monthly high. After the pair fell below 132.00, it is currently holding just above 132.0190. EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair extended its decline to a new three-week low below 1.0700 as demand for the US dollar prevails ahead of US Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell's speech. Investors await speeches from ECB officials and FOMC chairman Jerome Powell. During the European morning, Germany published data on industrial production in December, which fell by 3.1% over the month and by 3.9% a year earlier, much worse than expected. The United States will publish a balance of trade in goods and services in December, which is expected to show a deficit of USD 68.5 billion. Continuing its decline, EUR/USD dropped below 1.0700 to 1.0694 and looks set to drop further. Read next: The Court In Munich Decided In Favor Of BMW| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD Sterling hit a new monthly low against the US dollar on Tuesday as investors expect the Bank of England (BoE) to end and possibly reverse its monetary tightening cycle soon, while the US Federal Reserve may hold interest rates higher for longer. Investors await further comments from the Bank of England and preliminary UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. GBP/USD came under bearish pressure again and hit a month-low below 1.2000 on Tuesday. Despite a slight improvement in risk sentiment, the US dollar holds its ground and weighs heavily on the GBP/USD pair. AUD/USD The Australian dollar rose high after the RBA raised its cash rate target to 3.35% from 3.10%. Since the first increase in May 2022, a total of 325 basis points have been added. The Australian dollar gained above $0.69, bouncing back from monthly lows following the RBA decision. The RBA said in an accompanying statement: "The board expects further rate hikes will be needed in the coming months to ensure inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary." Following the RBA decision, the Aussie Pair holds above 0.69 but the pair has lost momentum and is closer to 0.6900 than close to 0.6930. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rose through the 103.60 high during the New York session on Tuesday before finding resistance. The index dropped over 100 points thereafter to register a low of around 102.63 and is now seen to be trading at about 102.90. The bulls are looking poised to push further toward 104.57 as projected on the 4H chart here in the near term. The US dollar index is producing a larger-degree corrective way potentially towards 106.50 and 109.40 levels. Within the above rally, the bulls are unfolding the first leg higher towards 104.50 and 105.35 at most. A break above 105.35 will confirm that the bulls are back in control and that there is further upside left. Intraday drops should stay above the 100.50 lows. The US dollar index bulls are potentially targeting the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 100.50 levels, which is passing through the 109.40-50 zone. A high probability remains for a potential trend reversal lower if prices reach there (109.40). Only a drop below 100.50 would nullify the above bullish scenario. Trading idea: A potential bullish move against 100.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/311811

The dollar fell as Powell spoke. The dollar fell Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell refused to significantly tighten his tone on inflation in a closely watched speech, despite last week's strong employment data. USD/JPY The yen tumbled earlier this week as robust US jobs data suggested the Fed had more room for interest rate hikes. Recently, Japan's central bank countered speculation about another policy adjustment by keeping interest rates very low and leaving its yield control policy unchanged. As things stand, it seems that the market is having a hard time assessing the way forward as strong US data brings constant warnings of more hikes, which usually support USD valuations. At the same time, Japan is considering nominations for the top BoJ position for April, as the likelihood of policy normalization at the ultra-dovish Bank of Japan by the new incumbent cannot be ruled out. In the morning, the USD/JPY pair started rising towards 131.30. USD/JPY traded above 131.00 for the following hours of trading but fell below in the European session and is now trading at 130.6910. EUR/USD EUR/USD rebounded towards 1.0750 on Wednesday after falling below 1.0700 late Tuesday but struggled to gain further momentum. In the absence of high-impact data releases, investors will pay close attention to comments from Fed officials. Currently, the EUR/USD pair has fallen below this level, but slightly to the level of 1.0740. On Tuesday, mixed comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials made it difficult for the euro to gain an advantage over its rivals. ECB politician Francois Villeroy de Galhau said they are not very far from the peak of inflation. On a hawkish note, policymaker Joachim Nagel reiterated that further significant interest rate hikes would be needed, adding that ECB rates were not restrictive yet. Finally, Isabel Schnabel, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, took a neutral tone. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said US interest rates may need to be raised while the process of "disinflation" appears to be underway. Read next: Douyin Wants To Enter The Food Delivery Industry| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD At the end of Tuesday, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell also confirmed good labor market data and reiterated that they will probably have to make further rate hikes. On an optimistic note, Powell said he expected 2023 to be "a year of significant decline in inflation." This remark made it harder for the US Dollar Index to maintain its upward momentum and helped GBP/USD recover some of its losses this week. From the UK's perspective, the strike action remains a concern for the government and civil servants are planning to carry out another strike on March 15. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will present his fiscal plan on the same day and will be under additional pressure to possibly reassess inquiries about the pay settlement. Overall, it is bearish for the pound as strike action disrupts the UK economy and challenges UK leadership. GBP/USD pair gained momentum and climbed to around 1.2100 on Wednesday. Currently, the GBP/USD pair is trading above 1.2090$. AUD/USD The Aussie pair is defending support at 0.6950 with the US Dollar generally subdued so far. The Aussie pair surged above 0.6990 today but failed to maintain momentum and is currently trading above 0.6980. Yesterday the RBA raised rates by 25 bp. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index has rallied through 103.00 after finding support around 102.60 on Wednesday. The index is seen to be trading close to 103.00 at this time in writing as the bulls prepare to push through 104.50-60 and up to 105.35. They might have some more steam left to target the initial resistance at 105.35 before pulling back. Earlier, the US dollar index terminated its larger-degree decline at 100.50 before finding support again. Prices have rallied through 103.60 since then, indicating that a similar-degree corrective rally is underway. The initial target is seen towards 105.35, followed by 109.50 to complete the correction. The bears might be looking to come back in control thereafter (109.50). The US dollar index is looking close to completing its initial rally of a much deeper correction around 105.00 in the near term. We can expect the price to pull back lower thereafter before it produces its final thrust rally towards 109.50 going forward. Also, note that 109.50 is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 100.50 levels respectively. Trading idea: Potential rally against 100.00 Good luck!     Relevance up to 05:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/311995

USD/CAD is attempting to deliver a breakout of the Falling Channel for the third time. The Loonie asset has reclaimed the 20-EMA, which indicates that the short-term trend is bullish now. A break into the bullish range of 60.00-40.00 by the RSI (14) will activate upside momentum. The USD/CAD pair has dropped firmly to near 1.3435 after failing to recapture a weekly high around 1.3476 in the early European session. The Loonie asset is following the footprints of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has surrendered the 103.00 cushion amid a sheer recovery in the risk-on impulse. S&P500 futures have extended their gains firmly as investors’ risk appetite has improved after the market digested the hawkish interest rate guidance from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Meanwhile, the oil price is struggling to stretch its upside move above $78.50. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the United States and higher oil prices will support the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD is attempting to deliver a breakout of the Falling channel chart pattern on a two-hour scale, for the third time after two failed breaks due to the absence of strength in the US Dollar bulls. The Loonie is testing the strength of the breakout near 1.3432. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3423 is acting as major support for the US Dollar bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is struggling to cross 40.00. A break into the bullish range of 60.00-40.00 will activate upside momentum. A break above February 7 high at 1.3469 will drive the asset toward January 19 high at 1.3521 followed by January 6 low at 1.3538. On the flip side, a slippage below Wednesday’s low at 1.3360 will drag the asset toward January 3 low at 1.3321 and February 2 low at 1.3262. USD/CAD two-hour chart  

The US dollar hovered near the middle of recent ranges compared to majors on Thursday as investors scrutinized comments from many Federal Reserve officials. Overnight, four Fed speakers continue to send their hawkish message to the market. The consistent message is that further interest rate hikes are announced and that the interest rate will have to stay high for a long time. The employment data initially raised expectations that the Fed might return to aggressive monetary policy, but Powell did not lean in that direction in his speech. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the consumer price inflation data that comes out on Tuesday for additional guidance on the policy outlook. USD/JPY During the morning trading hours, USD/JPY held above 131.40 but failed to sustain momentum. USD/JPY has returned to levels below 131.00. EUR/USD EUR/USD maintained its upward momentum and extended its daily gain towards 1.0800 on Thursday. Earlier in the day, data from Germany revealed that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell to 9.2% on an annualized basis in January from 9.6% in December. This reading was much lower than market expectations of 10%, but the negative impact of these data on the euro remained short-lived. With the major European stock indices opening much higher on Thursday, the EUR/USD rate began to rise. At the time of publication, the German DAX 30 and Euro Stoxx 50 indices were up over 1% during the day. Read next: Credit Suisse Reported Its Biggest Annual Loss Since The 2008, Ukrainian President Is Asking For Help And More Weapons In Brussels| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The Bank of England is concerned that UK inflation will remain stubbornly high. This suggests that the BoE has growing uncertainty about whether further policy tightening is warranted and that the current cycle of rate hikes may be coming to an end. The BoE has hiked interest rates 10 times since December 2021, the last being a week ago, as it battles to bring down sky-high inflation without causing a deep recession. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is joined today by MPC members Huw Pill, Professor Silvana Tenreyro and Professor Jonathan Haskel in the Treasury Committee (TSC). So far, they have been asked whether the central bank is lagging behind in the fight against inflation. So far, the statements of BoE representatives suggest that the MPC is still worried about persistently high inflation and that the British economy may face a prolonged period of weakness. GBP/USD continued to move higher and hit a new six-day high above 1.2150 on Thursday. Cautious comments from BOE policymakers on the outlook for inflation and a risk-prone market environment help the pair keep their balance. On Friday, the UK's Office for National Statistics will publish estimate GDP figures for December 2022. AUD/USD The risk-sensitive Australian dollar gained against gains from US equity futures and the more hawkish Reserve Bank. AUD/USD rebounded strongly from 0.6920 in the Asian session. The New Zealand dollar also appreciated. Australians were rather dissatisfied after the last RBA meeting, which may point to further rate hikes in the future due to inflationary pressure. A slightly weaker dollar this morning is supporting the Australian bulls, including the rise of some key Australian commodities. The Australian pair is currently trading close to the $0.7000 level. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

The Canadian dollar trades in a wide price range, which limits are marked with the levels of 1.3360-1.3460 (marks correspond to the lines Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen on the D1 chart). During the entire week ,the pair alternately pushes back against the limits of this 100-point price range, and by and large, it makes no headway. If we look at the pair's weekly chart, we will see that the pair is within the framework of the upward pullback. Last week, the bears made a new near 3-months low (1.3261), but failed to consolidate within the range of the 32nd figure, amid strong US Nonfarm and increasing hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve's next actions. However, the price growth stalled: traders are waiting for the "Canadian Nonfarm" to be released at the start of the U.S. trading session on Friday. An important report for the Canadian currency Typically, key U.S. and Canadian labor market data is released on the same day and even at the same time. The U.S. Nonfarm set the tone for all of the U.S. dollar pairs, while the Canadian figures are in the shadow: for obvious reasons, few traders are interested in them. In the context of the pair, the loonie follows the greenback, so the Canadian Nonfarm remains in the background compared to the more weighty U.S. report. But this month there was, so to speak, a "de-synchronization" with an interval of a week: the main labor market report in the US was released last Friday, while in Canada it will be released today, February 10. The U.S. report provided support for the bulls, while the Canadian figures could either strengthen the bullish sentiment or trigger a downward momentum. Either way, the loonie will only react to "its" numbers today, as the market has already effectively played back the US report. Take note that preliminary forecasts do not promise a "bright future" for the Canadian dollar. Most likely, the report will be quite weak and that will put more pressure on the loonie, allowing the bulls to overcome the resistance level of 1.3520 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart) and stay within the 35th figure. Thus, the Canadian employment report is expected to rise by only 15,000 in January after a strong jump of 104,000 in December. That said, January's 15,000 gain will come mostly from an increase in part-time employment (+10,000), while the full-time component will show a more modest result (+5,000). The "headline" indicator of the report is also unlikely to impress traders: the unemployment rate should rise to 5.1%. In this case the growth is minimal, but a consistent downtrend was recorded during the last two months. The labor force participation rate is likely to fall in January, from 65.0% in December to 64.7%. Possible effects of a weak report At the end of the Bank of Canada's January meeting, the central bank increased the rate by 25 basis points, but actually announced a pause. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that further interest rate increase may not be necessary, because, according to the central bank's forecasts, "economic growth will slow down with a simultaneous decline in inflation". A little later, the governor outlined the central bank's decision in more straightforward terms, saying it was now time to pause to assess whether monetary policy was sufficiently restrictive. In other words, Macklem confirmed rumors following its January meeting that the central bank intends to maintain a wait-and-see approach. Therefore, a weak labor market report will not play a decisive role in this matter (this issue has already been resolved). Read next: Credit Suisse Reported Its Biggest Annual Loss Since The 2008, Ukrainian President Is Asking For Help And More Weapons In Brussels| FXMAG.COM   However, now there are talks on a different plan - that the Bank of Canada may cut the rate in the second half of this year. The poll of market participants for 4 quarter published by the Canadian central bank on Monday showed that the median forecasts for the rate by the end of 2023 was 4%, i.e. rate reduction by 50 basis points is supposed. And while at the final press conference in January, Macklem said that "it is too early to talk about interest rate cuts," he did not actually rule out such a scenario (as, for example, the U.S. Federal Reserve did, de facto ruling out a rate cut in 2023). Therefore, weak Canadian labor market data may reinforce the market's dovish expectations regarding the Bank of Canada's future actions. Conclusions If the Canadian Nonfarm is in the red zone, bulls may attempt an upward breakout, overcoming the upper limit of the 1.3360-1.3460 range. The closest target will be 1.3520, which is the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart. In case Friday's report turns out to be in the green zone, then most likely, the pair will continue to trade within the aforementioned price range.   Relevance up to 18:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/334712

USD/CAD grinds higher after positing two-day winning streak. Bullish MACD signals, sustained trading beyond weekly support line favor buyers. Convergence of 100-DMA, four-month-old resistance line appears a tough nut to crack for bulls. USD/CAD teases buyers around 1.3465-70 heading into Friday’s European session, after a two-day uptrend, as the Loonie pair traders await crucial statistics from Canada and the US.  In doing so, the quote remains indecisive despite printing minor gains by the press time. Also read: USD/CAD copies Oil’s inaction near mid-1.3400s, Canada employment, early signals for US inflation eyed Even so, the bullish MACD signals join the pair’s successful trading above the weekly support line, around 1.3390 by the press time, to keep the buyers hopeful. That said, the 50-DMA level surrounding 1.3500 guards the USD/CAD pair’s immediate upside before the convergence of the 100-DMA and descending resistance line from early October, close to 1.3540 at the latest. In a case where the Loonie pair manages to stay beyond 1.3540, the previous monthly high of 1.3685 and the December 2022 peak surrounding 1.3705 will act as the last defense of the USD/CAD bears. On the flip side, a clear break of the weekly support line, near 1.3390, will aim for the weekly low of 1.3360 before highlighting the monthly bottom surrounding 1.3260. Read next: Credit Suisse Reported Its Biggest Annual Loss Since The 2008, Ukrainian President Is Asking For Help And More Weapons In Brussels| FXMAG.COM Should the USD/CAD prices remain weak past 1.3260, November 2022 low and the last July’s peak, respectively around 1.3235 and 1.3220, will gain the market’s attention. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected

Now that markets have absorbed hawkish reactions by central bankers after the latest rate announcement and data releases, the focus will shift back to data. We think the dollar may lack clear direction until next week’s inflation data. Canadian jobs numbers have the potential of driving large CAD swings today USD: Lack of direction The dollar is struggling to find clear direction in the current market environment. Federal Reserve officials continued to push their hawkish rhetoric this week but had to implicitly and explicitly acknowledge more evidence from data must be gathered before debating the size of further tightening. This is essentially leaving the market with one conviction - a 25bp hike in March - and one outstanding doubt about whether that will mark the peak. Fed funds futures are mirroring this uncertainty by pricing in a 5.14% peak rate. We suspect key dollar crosses will stay rangebound until the next key data releases. While today’s University of Michigan survey could have some market impact, next week’s CPI is the real risk event. And if the general risk environment proves resilient for another session today, the dollar should still find a floor on the back of some defensive positioning ahead of next week’s inflation data, as happened in the run-up to the Fed meeting. Fed communication remains important, but secondary to data. After all, markets have already had the chance to assess the reaction function of the Fed to strong economic data after the latest jobs report and another round of Fedspeak. Additional policy remarks from the Fed’s Christopher Waller and Patrick Harker today are not likely to be a game changer for the dollar. DXY may keep hovering around the 103 handle into next week’s CPI report. The latest jobs figures in the US likely raised the bar for a positive surprise in Canada today, even though the consensus is centred on a rather small increase in the headline hiring figure (+15k). Unlike the Fed, the Bank of Canada has signalled its tightening cycle is probably over, even though it left the door open for more hikes should data argue against the disinflationary narrative. Markets are pricing little to no chance of further rate hikes, but equally seem reluctant to factor in any rate cuts by year-end. This leaves some room on both ends for a pronounced CAD impact from a data surprise today. A weak number could fuel easing bets (risk of cuts is higher than expected anyway, in our view), while a strong number – paired with the recent revision higher in Fed rate expectations – could encourage markets to contemplate one last hike by the BoC. We still expect USD/CAD to test 1.3000 in the coming months, but the key driver may be USD weakness rather than loonie outperformance.  Francesco Pesole EUR: Rangebound for now A brief rally failed to propel EUR/USD back above 1.0800 yesterday, and the pair may mostly trade in the 1.07-1.08 range until next week’s data offers clearer direction to the dollar. Despite an improved risk environment helping the pro-cyclical euro, below-consensus inflation in Germany yesterday may have made investors more cautious about another EUR rally. In this sense, the ability of European Central Bank speakers to lift the euro appears diminished. One of the most prominent hawkish voices in the ECB, Isabel Schnabel, will participate in a live Q&A today, although her message on the need for more tightening has already been passed through to asset prices. Pablo Hernandez de Cos is also scheduled to speak today. Elsewhere in Europe, Norwegian CPI saw a significant upside surprise. We expect a final 25bp hike at the March meeting, though the surprise surge in underlying inflation suggests the committee could add another 25bp move in June. However this is only one input into Norges Bank's thinking, and the fall in oil prices since the middle of last year, and the fact the Fed is reaching the peak, suggest Norway is unlikely to move as aggressively as some of its European peers over coming months. Francesco Pesole GBP: First-quarter contraction looks more likely The UK published GDP numbers this morning and it's a very tough read. Most, if not all, of that 0.5% contraction can be blamed on either strikes (transport & health were both heavy drags) or a lack of Premier League football games in December due to the World Cup. However, the fact that the weakness in the fourth quarter was concentrated in December means the starting point for the first quarter is lower, and almost certainly means we'll get a contraction even if activity through the quarter effectively stagnates. Our own view is we'll get a 0.3-0.4% fall in GDP in the first quarter, and probably a slight fall in the second. Recession still looks narrowly the base case. However, next week’s wage figures are what the Bank of England policymakers will watch much more closely as they assess signs of “inflation persistence”. As discussed by our economics team here, wages and developments in the service sector can make or break a March rate hike. For now, our house call is one last 25bp increase in March. EUR/GBP seems to have lost some of its bearish momentum. As discussed recently, we do not see clear drivers of GBP outperformance and a return to levels above 0.8900 in the pair is our base case. Francesco Pesole Read next: Twitter Co-Founder Jack Dorsey Comments New Twitter's Owner| FXMAG.COM CEE: Inflation reminder Today, we have the first January inflation figures in the calendar. In Hungary, inflation rose from 24.5% to 25.7% year-on-year, beating all estimates, which means an upside surprise by 0.5pp. Later, we will see inflation in the Czech Republic, also expected to rise from 15.8% to 17.6% YoY, above market expectations. As always in recent months, the main issue is energy prices, which we believe saw a massive repricing in January. Also today, the Czech National Bank will publish the minutes of its last meeting as well as the complete new forecast including the alternative scenario preferred by the Board at the moment. This assumes a longer period of stable rates and a first cut only at the end of the year. In the FX market in the region, global factors were again in charge in recent days and apart from the Polish zloty, the CEE region returned to gains. The turnaround in EUR/USD together with gas prices testing new lows and further improvement in sentiment in Europe drove the Czech koruna and Hungarian forint to new lows against the euro. Moreover, higher inflation today should support domestic rates in our view and support both currencies. However, in both cases we see heavy long positioning already, which will make the path to further gains more complicated. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

During the American session, the University of Michigan will publish a preliminary consumer sentiment survey for February. The main consumer confidence index is expected to rise to 65 from 64.9 in January. Market participants will keep a close eye on the component of the survey on inflation expectations for the next year, which fell to 4% in January from 4.4% in December. An unexpected increase in this reading could strengthen the US dollar. USD/JPY The yen strengthened on Friday before recovering slightly after Kazuo Ueda, who was reportedly tapped as the next governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), said the central bank's monetary policy was the right one. The government is also nominating Ryozo Himino, the former head of Japan's banking regulator, and BOJ director Shinichi Uchida as deputy governors, the Nikkei said. BOJ deputy governor Masayoshi Amamiya was the frontrunner for the role of governor, but the Nikkei reported that he turned down the job. The government is expected to present candidates to parliament on February 14. The BOJ shocked markets in December when it raised the 10-year yield cap to 0.5% from 0.25%, doubling the allowable range above or below zero. USD/JPY managed to rebound towards 131.00 after falling below 130.00 earlier in the day. EUR/USD EUR/USD picked up momentum and climbed to around 1.0800 at the end of Thursday, but lost much of its daily gains and closed below 1.0750. EUR/USD came under slight downward pressure and fell towards 1.0700 during Friday's European session. The US dollar gained strength thanks to rising US Treasury yields. The euro hit a 10-month high against the dollar earlier this month. The prospect of a milder recession thanks to falling energy prices and plentiful natural gas supplies, coupled with China's exit from three years of severe COVID-related restrictions, has generally ignited investors' appetite for European assets. However, this enthusiasm has made the euro look vulnerable, at least in the short term. The Euro is set for a second consecutive week of declines and at the time of writing EUR/USD is trading below 1.07 at 1.6998. Read next: Tesla Will Increase Output For 2023, Deliveroo Are Planning To Cut Jobs| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The pound weakened on Friday after data showed the UK economy stalled in the final three months of 2022, avoiding a technical recession but recording zero growth. The UK Office for National Statistics said on Friday that the UK economy contracted by 0.5% on a monthly basis in December and came to a standstill in the fourth quarter. On the positive side, industrial production rose 0.3% in December, beating market expectations for a 0.2% decline. The Bank of England forecast last week that the UK would enter a shallow but lengthy recession starting in the first quarter of this year and lasting five quarters. Moreover, Money Markets shows that investors believe that UK interest rates will peak below 4.40% by late summer, from the current 4%. UK consumer inflation data will be released next week and may have a bigger impact on these expectations. The GBP/USD pair previously surged to levels above 1.2130 but lost momentum and is now trading just above 1.2100 and below 1.2110. AUD/USD The Australian dollar held below $0.695, pressured by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials who reiterated their commitment to bring down inflation with more rate increases. The Australian Dollar remains supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will tighten policy further. The RBA’s latest monetary policy statement showed that the central bank revised its inflation forecasts higher for this year, saying price pressures were spreading into services and wages. AUD/USD is headed towards 0.6900 amid disappointing Chinese CPI and PPI data. The Australian pair is not benefiting from the RBA's hawkish monetary policy statement, currently the Aussie pair holds above 0.6920. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

With the appearance of the hidden deviation on The Loonie price movement with its Stochastic Oscillator indicator that also happens to be on the Overbought level as well as the appearance of Bearish 123 pattern followed by Ross Hook (RH) so that based on those facts, USD/CAD has the potential to depreciated below up to the level 1.3261-1.3225. However, if on the way to the level that has been described, suddenly USD/CAD is corrected up again and up past the level of 1.3520, the downside scenario described earlier will become invalid and automatically cancel itself. Read next: UK Economy Suggest That Inflation Will Drop| FXMAG.COM Relevance up to 03:00 2023-02-18 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/119293

USD/CAD consolidates the biggest daily slump in over a month. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement triggers corrective bounce amid oversold RSI. 200-HMA joins sluggish MACD signals to probe Loonie pair buyers. USD/CAD retreats from intraday high as buyers struggle to overcome the key Hourly Moving Average (HMA) during early Monday in Europe. Even so, the Loonie pair prints 0.20% intraday gains around 1.3375 as it pares the heaviest daily loss in five weeks, marked the previous day. The quote’s recovery could be linked to its bounce off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of February 02-06 upside amid the oversold RSI (14) conditions. However, the 200-HMA level challenges the USD/CAD pair’s immediate upside near 1.3385. Given the bullish MACD signals, despite being sluggish of late, the Loonie pair may remain on the bull’s radar, suggesting a clear break of the immediate HMA hurdle surrounding 1.3385. Read next: Campbell Bought A $100,000 Plane To Live In It| FXMAG.COM Following that, 1.3415 may test the upside momentum before directing the USD/CAD bulls toward the two-week-old horizontal resistance area near 1.3470. In a case where USD/CAD remains firmer past 1.3470, it can aim for a late January swing high near 1.3520. Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, puts a floor under the USD/CAD prices of around 1.3340, a break of which highlights the 1.3300 round figure for the bears. Should USD/CAD breaks the 1.3300 round figure, the monthly low and November 2022 trough, respectively near 1.3260 and 1.3225, will gain the market’s attention. USD/CAD: Hourly chart Trend: Further downside expected

The dollar gained on Friday as investors grew concerned about a U.S. inflation report next week that could show a number that is higher than markets forecast amid data showing expectations for a continued rise in prices over the next year. As the data continued to show positive U.S. momentum, the dollar was on pace for its second weekly rise against a basket of six currencies, a run it has not seen since October. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has cited the Michigan survey's inflation outlook as one of the indicators the U.S. central bank tracks. USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair started the week trading at 132.12 and, despite the correction, was moving towards 132.50. Above this level on the first day of trading (Monday) it reached a weekly high of 132.88. In the following days, the USD/JPY pair fell below 132.00 until reaching the level of 130.50. The pair then traded in a range of 130.00-131.50 until USD/JPY dropped to 129.9550, which is the pair's weekly low. The pair closed between the highest and lowest levels, i.e. above 131.00, 131.38 to be exact. The yen rose on Friday across the board with Kazuo Ueda reportedly set to become the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor but pared gains after he said the central bank's monetary policy was appropriate. The Japanese unit was on track for its first weekly gain versus the dollar after posting losses for three straight weeks. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the government is planning to present the BOJ governor nominee to parliament on Tuesday, but did not answer a question on whether Ueda would be put forward. Read next: Tesla Will Increase Output For 2023, Deliveroo Are Planning To Cut Jobs| FXMAG.COM EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair started the week trading close to $1.08 at 1.0792. In the following hours, the EUR/USD pair reached a weekly high of 1.0804 and then began to fall towards 1.07. On Tuesday, EUR/USD fell below 1.07, then rose again on Wednesday, breaking above 1.0750 on Thursday. The pair failed to maintain this momentum and on the final day of trading fell to a weekly low of 1.0670. After that, EUR/USD rose slightly and closed the week just above the low of 1.0681. GBP/USD The Cable pair started trading at 1.2050. And for the next two days she lingered in this area. On Wednesday, GBP/USD started an upward move towards 1.21. On Thursday, GBP/USD traded close to 1.22 at 1.2191 which is the weekly high of GBP/USD, but fell back on Friday to close the week at 1.2058. The week's low was at 1.1963 for the GBP/USD pair. AUD/USD The Aussie Pair started trading at 0.6910 and fell on Monday to a weekly low of 0.6859. In the following days, the pair stayed above 0.69. On Thursday, AUD/USD broke above 0.70 and hit a weekly high of 0.7011, similarly to EUR and GBP, the Australian pair failed to maintain momentum and dropped Friday to end the week at 0.6921. The Australian and New Zealand dollars found support on Friday as markets continued to ramp up expectations for how high local interest rates might rise, sending bond yields to one-month peaks. Having hiked rates by a quarter point to a decade-high of 3.35% on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said domestic price pressures were building and spreading into services and wages, so it was unclear how high rates might have to go. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

The dollar approached a five-week high against its major peers on Monday, and investors increased their bets on the Federal Reserve staying on tight monetary policy longer. The most important event this week will be US consumer prices data released on Tuesday, which will strengthen expectations regarding Fed policy. Strong CPI data in the US would increase expectations for monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, which would probably push the dollar up. USD/JPY USD/JPY started the new week at the level of 131.3470, and in the following hours it rose and broke through the level of 132.00. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading above 132.50. The asset is expected to refresh a four-day high above 132.00 as investors are extremely risk-averse ahead of the United States inflation report. In January, Japanese investors became net buyers of foreign bonds for the first time in five months as US bond yields fell in a sign that slowing inflation would prompt major central banks to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Japanese investors bought foreign bonds net worth 1.56 trillion yen ($11.79 billion) in January, according to data from Japan's Ministry of Finance, marking their biggest buying frenzy since September 2021. Read next: Poland’s President Andrzej Duda Said The Decision To Send Fighter Jets To Ukraine Was “Not Easy To Take”| FXMAG.COM EUR/USD On Friday, a preliminary consumer sentiment survey by the University of Michigan in February showed that annual expected inflation rose to 4.2% from 3.9% in February. The reading helped the US dollar stay strong against its rivals ahead of the weekend and forced EUR/USD to end the week in the red. Early Monday, the US Dollar Index holds strong and limits EUR/USD's gains. The EUR/USD pair started trading at 1.0684 this week. In the following hours, EUR/USD fell towards 1.0660 but rebounded above 1.0680. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0675. The European Commission raised the EU growth forecast for 2023. The European Commission noted that the EU economy entered 2023 in a better position than predicted in the autumn and raised its growth forecasts for this year to 0.9% in the euro area. The Eurozone looks set to avoid a technical recession, thanks in large part to falling gas prices and a solid labor market. The Commission has also lowered its inflation expectations, with headline inflation now expected to fall to 5.6% in 2023. GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair started the week at 1.2050. Similar to the Euro pair, the GBP/USD pair fell towards 1.2035 during the morning trading hours before rising above 1.2060 again. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2056. The market awaits this week's data, which could show that unemployment in the UK remained flat in December and weekly earnings rose less than in November. The British economy, similarly to the US, will publish inflation reports this week. UK is expecting inflation to fall. UK retail sales figures for January are expected to show that while consumers continue to spend less, the pace of decline in sales may have slowed in the new year. AUD/USD Markets expects RBA Chairman Philip Lowe to reinforce the bank's hawkish stance at parliamentary hearings this week. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe will testify before the Senate this week. Lowe will appear before the Senate Appraisals Committee on Wednesday, and then on Friday will give his semi-annual testimony to the House Economics Committee. In between these public appearances will be squeezed in employment data on Thursday. The central bank surprised markets last week by signaling at least two more rate hikes after raising the cash rate to a decade high of 3.35%. This stifled any talk of a break and led the markets to price in a final rate of 4.2% The AUD/USD Pair started the week close to 0.6900, where it fell below this level in the following hours. The Australian pair managed to break above 0.6915 and is currently trading above 0.6930. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index turned lower from a 103.50 high on Monday and printed a 102.78 low early on Tuesday. The index is seen to be trading close to 102.80 at this point in writing as the bulls might be preparing to come back in control. The potential near-term target is seen towards 104.00 and 104.75 as marked on the 4H chart here (Red). The US dollar index has either completed its first wave between 100.50 and 103.60 or could be near terminating after a push higher one last time through 104.00-75. Near-term resistance is seen at 105.35 as displayed on the chart here and could be taken out as the bulls prepare to push through the lower-degree rally from current levels around 102.80. The trading instrument is unfolding a larger-degree corrective rally towards 106.50 and up to 109.50 as discussed earlier. The first wave is underway from 100.50 and could terminate close to 105.35. We can expect the second wave to dip lower again before the final rally towards 109.50 could resume. Trading idea: Potential rally against 100.00 Good luck!     Relevance up to 05:00 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/312544

USD/CAD holds lower ground at weekly bottom, pressured after two-day downtrend. Clear downside break of key EMA, Fibonacci retracement join looming bear cross on MACD to lure bears. Monthly resistance line, descending trend line from October challenge pair buyers. USD/CAD remains depressed around 1.3330 even as bulls and bears jostle during early Tuesday, due to the market’s inaction ahead of the key US inflation data. In doing so, the Loonie pair probes the two-day losing streak at the lowest levels in more than a week. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained downside break of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-October upside joins a looming bear cross on the MACD to keep USD/CAD sellers hopeful. As a result, a convergence of the ascending trend line from mid-November and the 200-day EMA, around 1.3270 by the press time, gains major attention. Should the pair offers a clear downside break of the 1.3270 key level, the last November’s low near 1.3225 may act as a validation point for the south-run targeting the September 2022 bottom surrounding 1.2955. It should be observed that the 1.3100 and the 1.3000 round figures may act as intermediate halts during the anticipated fall. Meanwhile, the stated key Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden ratio, guards immediate USD/CAD rebound near 1.3345, a break of which highlights the 100-day EMA level of 1.3410. Following that, a descending resistance line from January 19 and a four-month-old downward-sloping trend line, respectively around 1.3455 and 1.3530, could challenge the USD/CAD bulls. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators

Market bulls have endless optimism this year, it is amazing. Whether it is funded or not, is yet to be seen. US CPI Inflation could help answer that question today. A few indicators point at a certain uptick in inflation in January figures, and the expectation is that the US headline CPI may have slowed to 6.2% in January, from 6.5% printed a month earlier, on a yearly basis. A sufficiently soft, or ideally a softer-than-expected CPI read today should give an additional boost to the equity bulls while a stronger inflation read could easily bring the Fed hawks back to the marketplace and send equities tumbling. Forex In the FX, the US dollar has seen a crowd of sellers above the 50-DMA. A strong inflation data could finally send the dollar index sustainably above its 50-DMA, while a soft reading will be a good reason to sell the rebound. The EURUSD continues its own struggle around the 50-DMA. In Japan, Kazuo Ueda has been nominated as the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor. There are rumours that the new BoJ leader could scrap the YCC policy. The yen was better bid in Tokyo, but the US CPI data is probably what will determine the short-term direction both in EURUSD and the USDJPY. CPI What everyone wants to see is a soft US CPI figure, a softer US dollar, strong equities, improved bonds, and stronger other currencies. What everyone fears however is a figure that’s not convincingly softer. The only sure thing is, the CPI days are known for their high intraday volatility. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 Mixed feelings about the market 3:51 All eyes are on the US CPI today! 7:13 FX update 8:39 Balloon update Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #USD #inflation #data #Fed #expectations #EUR #JPY #XAU #US #China #spy #balloon #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      

Today's US CPI report looks like a rather binary event for markets. With the deflationary story having come under increased scrutiny, we suspect that a consensus 0.4% MoM read in core inflation may be enough to weigh on risk assets and support the dollar. We still see room for USD outperformance in the near term. In the UK, wage data endorsed a BoE march hike US consumer spending slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022 USD: A consensus reading may be enough to support the dollar We are a bit surprised to see markets have started the week with some (cautious) optimism despite the big risk event represented by today’s US inflation report. A rise in global equities meant the dollar is trading weaker across the board with the exception of the yen, which continues to see elevated volatility as markets struggle to assess the implications of the Bank of Japan appointing – now officially – Kazuo Ueda as next governor. We expect JPY volatility to stay high as Ueda may refrain from offering clear direction on any policy shift before taking the role in April. For now, there are no indications he will favour an abrupt end to the BoJ’s ultra-dovish policy stance. Back to the US, January’s inflation report will be an important litmus test for the disinflation story that has driven the slowdown in Federal Reserve tightening. The market's reaction will likely be driven once again by the month-on-month figure, which our economist expects to match consensus expectations at 0.5% for the headline rate and 0.4% for core inflation. This should translate into year-on-year reads of around 6.2% and 5.5%, respectively. Such a consensus read may be enough to weigh on risk assets and support the dollar, as it should allow markets to fully price in 50bp of additional tightening by the Fed and offer the chance to scale back rate cut expectations (around 50bp priced in for 2H23). Given that core inflation in December came in at 0.3%, a 0.2% print (or below) today should be enough to trigger a dollar correction, and a 0.5% (or above) could trigger a dollar rally. We’ll be paying close attention to the details of today’s releases. Auto sales and shelter are two components that may contribute to a higher reading. The former may boost the CPI number on the back of a reported jump in auto auction prices by 2.5%: this may translate into 0.15pp added to MoM core CPI, given the high weighting of this component on the reference basket. Shelter accounts for approximately a third of the inflation basket and may prove sticky given the lagged effect on data of contracting house prices and new rental agreements. We still think these two components will drive a big chunk of the deflationary effect from the second quarter, but for now may work against any dovish narrative. We see the balance of risks as tilted to the upside for the dollar and to the downside for pro-cyclical currencies. A return to the 2023 highs in DXY (at 105.00) is still a tangible possibility in the near term, even though we continue to favour USD underperformance in the remainder of this year. Francesco Pesole EUR: No other drivers than US CPI EUR/USD should be moved almost solely by the US inflation report today, as the preliminary (i.e. second) release of eurozone growth numbers looks unlikely to impact markets and there is only one scheduled European Central Bank speaker (Gabriel Makhlouf). As discussed in recent notes, we expect to see a rather contained impact from additional ECB commentaries (even from those by Christine Lagarde tomorrow) from now on, as markets have probably absorbed in full the pushback against the dovish reaction to the February ECB press conference and are now switching their focus to key data releases. In line with our dollar view ahead of today’s US CPI, EUR/USD may slip back to 1.0650/1.0700 should core inflation come in at 0.4% or 0.5% MoM. Anything above that would likely trigger a larger contraction and 1.0600 should be tested. We continue to see downside risks for EUR/USD in the very near term as US data may endorse further Fed hikes and the euro lacks any solid domestic support. Francesco Pesole GBP: Sticky wages cement BoE March hike expectations Wage data released this morning in the UK came in higher than expected, lifting the pound. The Bank of England’s preferred measure of wage growth, the 3-month/3-month annualised change has now been consistently above 7% for a few months, and there is very little evidence of that wage slowdown suggested by some surveys. Tomorrow’s CPI release will be another key event for the pound, but we think that given the increased focus of the Bank of England on wage dynamics, today’s data strongly endorses a March 25bp rate hike (which is our base case). EUR/GBP may well break below 0.8800 this week, while GBP/USD could fall back below 1.2100 after the US CPI print. Francesco Pesole CEE: Break-up within the region Before we see any key releases on a global level, the CEE region also has something to say today. We will see GDP numbers across the region for the fourth quarter and an inflation number for January in Romania. The main focus will of course be on the confirmation of the technical recession in Hungary but also on the consumer side of GDP across the region given that January inflation has already surprised to the upside in Hungary and the Czech Republic. In the FX market, the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint secured the main attention at the start of the week. The zloty reached its weakest levels since mid-October last year weighed down by negative EU money prospects and Thursday's looming European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling in the FX mortgage case. For now, we have not heard from officials how long it will take for the Constitutional Court to review the legislation after President Duda said he would not sign the bill and sent it instead to the court for review. However, the likelihood is growing that Poland will not get EU money before the October general elections. Moreover, there is a risk that Thursday's ECJ ruling will impose additional costs on the banking sector. Overall, it will thus be difficult for the Polish zloty to resist further losses in the days ahead. For now, we expect the zloty to test 4.80 EUR/PLN. On the other hand, the Hungarian forint has reached its strongest levels since last May. Drivers are the same as in recent weeks in our view - falling gas prices and by far the highest carry in the region. In particular, after Friday's upside inflation surprise, the short end of the IRS curve is up roughly 50-60bps, which has brought the interest rate differential back to levels seen at the start of the year and erased bets on an early central bank rate cut. Although in our view, heavy long positioning on HUF is still the main risk and profit-taking cannot be ruled out, we remain bullish on the forint. We expect further gains to be slower, however, the mentioned conditions should persist at least until the March National Bank of Hungary meeting. Thus, we see a good chance for the forint to beat our forecast of 385 EUR/HUF at the end of the quarter. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The dollar fell on Tuesday in anticipation of the eagerly awaited inflation report. Markets are looking at US consumer inflation data for further clues to the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Investors expect the headline annual CPI to fall to 6.2% from 6.5% in December and the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to fall to 5.5% from 5.7%. USD/JPY The Yen pair initially cheered the pullback in the Treasury bond yields before the Japanese government’s announcements of Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials triggered hawkish concerns and weighed on the prices. Also favoring the USD/JPY bears is the broad US Dollar pullback as traders brace for a positive surprise from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. Japan’s preliminary readings of the fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data printed mixed readings. Following that, the official nomination of Kazuo Ueda as the BoJ leader weighed on the USD/JPY prices. Fresh fears of the US-China tension over the balloon shooting also challenge the sentiment and put a floor under the USD/JPY price. The USD/JPY pair started trading above 132.30 today, but then fell towards 131.90. The yen pair managed to bounce back and traded close to 132.30 again. USD/JPY is currently trading above 132.20. EUR/USD The European Commission's winter economic forecast published yesterday says that the EU economy is geared to avoid recession. The EUR/USD pair held a narrow range of 1.0730-1.0745 in morning trading, but surged up in the European session. The euro maintained its earlier gains against the slightly weaker US dollar, with EUR/USD changing hands around 1.0760. The latest US inflation report due to be released will be another driver of action. Read next: Brazil’s Bank Allows To Pay Taxes Using Cryopto, Ford Will Cut Jobs In Europe| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The UK unemployment rate remained unchanged for the 3 months to December 2022, as expected. The number of people out of work for up to 6 months has increased, mainly among people aged 16 to 24. The number of people working in the UK increased by 74,000. in the three months to December, well above market forecasts for an increase of 40,000. and after an increase of 27,000 in last month. Meanwhile, from November 2022 to January 2023, the number of vacancies fell by 76,000. up to 1,134,000 UK wages rose 5.9% in December 2022 compared to the same month last year, beating estimates and down 6.4% from the previous print. What will be of concern, however, is the increase in average earnings without bonuses, which rose to 6.7%, beating the 6.5% forecast. The data compares with market forecasts of growth of 6.2% and 6.5%, respectively. In real terms, adjusted for inflation, the increase in total and regular wages fell by 3.1% in the year from October to December 2022 for total wages and by 2.5% for regular salaries. GBP/USD has gathered bullish momentum and climbed toward 1.2200 in the European trading hours. AUD/USD The Australian and New Zealand dollars tried to hold their gains on Tuesday after a rebound on Wall Street boosted global risk sentiment and Australian data underlined the case for further domestic interest rate hikes. Currently, the price of the Australian pair is around 0.6970. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

On the daily chart of the USD Dollar Index, it can be seen that there was a trendline break (TLB) condition on the CCI (14) indicator which was previously in a bear condition where the Chop Zone (CZ) indicator (levels 100 & -100) was red but after that TLB and CCI move above level 0, so CZ changes color to cyan blue and now the CCI histogram (14) has turned green, followed by Sidewinder color (levels 200 & -200) changes color to yellow (volatile/Trending) and green (very volatile / trending) so that in the future USDX has the potential to be Bullish appreciated going up to the 103.96 level as the first target and the 105.63 level as the second target but before that it seems that USDX will be corrected down to test the 102.19 level and as long as this level is strong enough to hold back the pace correction and does not exceed the level of 100.82, USDX has the potential to strengthen again where this can be seen at CCI 914) is trying to form Zero Line Reject (ZLR) pattern.   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-02-18 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/119499

USD/CAD regains positive traction on Wednesday and is supported by a combination of factors. Sliding crude oil prices undermines the Loonie and acts as a tailwind amid sustained USD buying. The prospects for more rate hikes by the Fed and the risk-off mood benefit the safe-haven buck. The USD/CAD pair catches fresh bids on Wednesday following the previous day's post-US CPI volatility and sticks to its intraday gains heading into the European session. The pair trades around the 1.3365 region, up nearly 0.25% for the day, and is supported by a combination of factors. Weaker crude oil prices undermine the commodity-linked Loonie, which, along with broad-based US Dollar strength, acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. Investors now seem worried that economic headwinds stemming from rising borrowing costs will dent fuel demand. Apart from this, signs of another massive build in US crude inventories weigh on the black liquid. In fact, the American Petroleum Institute (API) report showed on Tuesday that US crude stockpiles grew over 10 million barrels in the week to February 10. The USD, on the other hand, stands tall near a multi-week high amid firming expectations for further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. In fact, the markets seen convinced that the US central bank will stick to its hawkish stance for longer in the wake of stubbornly high inflation. The bets were reaffirmed by the latest US CPI report released and hawkish commentary by several FOMC officials on Tuesday. This, along with the prevalent risk-off mood, benefits the safe-haven buck and lends support to the USD/CAD pair. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favours bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside. Hence, some follow-through positive move, back towards reclaiming the 1.3400 round-figure mark, looks like a distinct possibility. The focus now shifts to the US economic docket, featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Traders will further take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities around the pair. Technical levels to watch remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators

US CPI numbers were in line with consensus yesterday and offered more room for markets to raise Fed rate expectations. This hasn’t translated into a dollar rally, but we could still see at least some support coming the greenback’s way as US data for January should prove strong. Polish inflation should confirm a different inflation story in the CEE region USD: Still eyes on data There were no fireworks in the FX market yesterday as January’s CPI figures matched expectations. Evidence of a slowdown in the disinflation process is giving an opportunity to the Federal Reserve and markets to feel more comfortable about more tightening beyond March. Fed Funds futures are now pricing in 68bp of extra hikes, having added around 7bp in price after the inflation release. This has, however, failed to translate into a materially stronger dollar for now, which is largely a consequence of some resilience in global risk sentiment despite the reinforcing of hawkish Fed bets. We think data will remain the key driver for the dollar and the global risk environment, as the depth of the US economic slowdown is still a key driver of rate expectations, especially when it comes to the timing, size and pace of Fed easing in the medium term. We think that January’s US data may come in rather strong throughout on the back of weather-related factors and this may keep short-term US rates and the dollar supported in the near term. Today, we’ll keep a close eye on retail sales data, industrial production and empire manufacturing, which should all improve.  Francesco Pesole EUR: Lagarde's speech may be a non-event EUR/USD remains primarily a dollar story, and despite having survived the US CPI risk event, we continue to see some downside risks in the near term on the back of raising bets on Fed tightening and a lack of drivers from the euro side. In this sense, we don’t think that today’s speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will drive major market moves. After her attempts and those (more successful) of her governing council colleagues to keep rate expectations high in the eurozone, we don’t see how there is much she could add to the central bank’s rhetoric at this stage. The release of eurozone-aggregate industrial production data for December should not have any material market impact.  We see room for EUR/USD to slip back to 1.0650/1.0700 by the end of this week on the back of a strengthening dollar.  Francesco Pesole GBP: Bearish story is running out of steam This morning's UK inflation data missed estimates (5.8% vs est. 6.2% year-on-year). Looking at the details, this is also true of 'core services', the index we know the Bank of England is paying closest attention to because it includes the slowest-moving/most persistent components of the inflation basket. It seems like hospitality is doing some of the work here. A word of caution - by definition, the BoE's insistence on looking at 'inflation persistence' means it's not looking at single-month changes in inflation. But this nevertheless goes firmly in the opposite direction of what the central bank has forecast. We would still expect a 25bp hike in March, but if this trend continues then it would heavily lean towards a pause in May. The EUR/GBP fall could extend and force a break below 0.8800, but we think the bearish story may soon run out of steam and we favour a rebound to 0.9000 over the course of 2023. Francesco Pesole PLN: Poland joining the inflation club As usual this week, Poland will be in the spotlight today again. We expect January inflation to jump from 16.6% to 18.1% year-on-year, above market expectations. Last Friday, we saw numbers from Hungary and the Czech Republic surprise to the upside by 50bp and 40bp, respectively, and we should see a similar picture today in Poland. The market has already partially corrected expectations for the first rate cut by the National Bank of Poland in recent days, but we believe there is still room for market rates to go up at the short end of the curve. And today's inflation should provide that impetus. Thus, a further improvement in the rate differential could at least stop the Polish zloty from weakening for a while. However, the Polish story does not end today. On Thursday, we will see the European Court of Justice's decision on the FX mortgage case and on Friday, S&P's rating review will be published. The ECJ decision is probably the main reason why the zloty has been underperforming the region recently. While we do not expect the sovereign rating to be downgraded, after the Hungarian experience, the market may wonder whether the delay in accessing EU money will be a problem for rating agencies in the case of Poland as well. Thus, today the zloty could look towards 4.74 EUR/PLN. However, for the rest of the week we remain bearish and rather expect weaker values near 4.80 EUR/PLN. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more  

Looking at the market pricing, you could’ve hardly guessed, but yesterday’s US inflation report was not brilliant. US stocks But US stocks gave a mixed reaction. Why?! Why did people buy equities on strong inflation data yesterday, is the main topic of today’s Market Talk.Still, treasury markets seemed more down to earth, as the US 2-year yield ticked to the highest levels since last November, activity on Fed funds futures gave a little more than 12% probability for a 50bp hike at the next FOMC meeting, versus around 9% at the start of the week. USD index But the dollar index remained stuck below its 50-DMA. Gold Gold extended losses to $1843 on the back of stronger yields and firmer US dollar. EUR/USD The EURUSD found support above the 50-DMA, which stands around the 1.0715 mark. USD/JPY The dollar-yen cleared resistance near its own 50-DMA level, but the risks are still tilted to the downside in USDJPY. Read next: Airbnb Posted A Profit Of $1.9. Billion, Air India And Largest Commercial Aircraft Deal In Aviation History| FXMAG.COM UK CPI and Crude Oil In the UK, inflation in January still eased more than expected to 10.1%. Crude oil remains offered into the 100-DMA, on a massive 10 mio barrel build in US oil inventories last week, while Biden Administration announced there would be further releases from the strategic petroleum reserves of 26 million barrels earlier this week.  Warren Buffett In individual stocks, Warren Buffett sold 86% stake in TSM. Shares plunged more than 4% in Taipei. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 US inflation eased less than expected in January 2:55 But who cares? 5:35 FX & yields update 7:05 UK inflation must please BoE, but not sterling 7:36 Crude oil down on massive US inventory build 8:27 Buffett sells TSM. Ouch. Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #USD #GBP #inflation #data #Fed #BoE #BoJ #expectations #EUR #JPY #XAU #US #crude #oil #F13 #TSM #Ford #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The dollar rose on Wednesday amid stubbornly high US inflation data and sharp interest rate talks from Federal Reserve officials. Year on year prices increased (CPI) by 6.4%. This is down from 6.5% in December, but above economists' expectations of 6.2%. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.4% as expected. More importantly, the underlying details of the report revealed that the core services' inflation, which the Fed pays close attention to, stood at 7.2% on a yearly basis. These figures showed markets that the disinflation has not picked up any steam in January and reminded that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to entertain the idea of a policy pivot. USD/JPY Kazuo Ueda, the Japanese government's nominee to be the next governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), will inherit a difficult set of problems when he takes over from incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda on April 8. Japanese inflation y/y reached 4% in December, the highest level since January 1991. The new central banker will have to decide when and by how much the BoJ needs to start reducing its very loose monetary policy in order to keep inflation in check while allowing enough monetary slack to allow for economic growth. As other countries have recently learned, once inflation takes root, it becomes increasingly difficult to bring it down. The yen pair after yesterday closed trading near 133.00 today in the first hours of trading USD/JPY started a decline towards 132.55. The drop in the first hours of trading was not sustained and the pair rose above 133.00. At the time of writing, the yen pair is trading at 133.31. EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair started the day trading above 1.0740 but fell towards 1.0710 in the following hours. EUR/USD gained momentum in the European session and traded near 1.0730 but lost momentum and is now trading around 1.0715. According to ING, remarks by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde later probably won't move the euro materially. EUR/USD pair should remain driven by dollar moves and faces near-term "downside risks" as the market raised its U.S. interest rate expectations following Tuesday's higher-than-expected inflation data. Read next: In The United States The Demand For Warehouse Space Is Still Growing| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The British pound fell this morning after the UK CPI. The report showed weaker than expected inflation data, both y/y and m/m, concerning headline and core inflation, respectively. The UK's Office for National Statistics reported on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index declined 0.6% on a monthly basis in January, causing the annual rate to retreat to 10.1% from 10.5%. The Core CPI also edged lower to 5.8% from 6.3% on a yearly basis, coming in lower than the market expectation of 6.2%. Although it's too early to say how these figures could influence the Bank of England's (BoE) policy outlook, the reaction suggests that markets have scaled back hawkish BoE bets. The Cable pair started trading at a high of 1.2175 on Wednesday, but in the following hours it started to fall initially to 1.2150 and then to 1.2100. Currently, GBP/USD is below 1.2100, at 1.2076. AUD/USD The Aussie pair is just below 0.6900. The AUD/USD pair is under strong selling pressure on Wednesday and is pulling further back from its over-week high. The RBA's latest monetary policy statement showed the central bank revised its inflation forecast for this year higher, saying price pressures were spreading to services and wages. The communiqué suggests two more interest rate hikes in the coming months and possibly a third if inflation remains high. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

USD/CAD meets with some supply and extends the overnight pullback from the weekly high. An uptick in oil prices underpins the Loonie and exerts pressure amid modest USD weakness. Hawkish Fed expectations should help limit deeper USD losses and lend support to the major. The USD/CAD pair comes under some selling during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from the weekly high, around the 1.3440 region touched the previous day. The pair currently trades around the 1.3380-1.3375 region and is pressured by a combination of factors. Crude oil prices gain some positive traction and snap a three-day losing streak amid hopes for a strong recovery in fuel demand. In fact, both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a rebound in crude demand later this year. This helps offset a substantial rise in the US crude inventories and acts as a tailwind for the black liquid, which, in turn, underpins the commodity-linked Loonie. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar weakness weighs on the USD/CAD pair. In fact, the USD Index, which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, extends the overnight pullback from a six-week high amid retreating US Treasury bond yields. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, is seen denting demand for the safe-haven buck. That said, the prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed should limit the downside for the US bond yields and the USD. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for any further depreciating move for the USD/CAD pair. Investors seem convinced that the US central bank will continue to hike interest rates in the wake of stubbornly high inflation. The bets were lifted by the US CPI report and hawkish comments by several Fed policymakers on Tuesday. Furthermore, the upbeat US monthly Retail Sales figures released on Wednesday indicated that the economy remains resilient despite rising borrowing costs. This should allow the Fed to stick to its hawkish stance for longer and supports prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying. Market participants now look forward to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), due later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will influence the Greenback. Apart from this, traders will take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities around the USD/CAD pair.

The dollar is holding onto recent gains. The continuation of better US activity data this quarter provides leeway for the Fed to remain hawkish and is keeping short-dated US yields firm. It is hard to see this changing in the short term. The data calendar is quiet today, but we have several Fed and ECB speakers. Look out for more on Polish FX mortgage news today USD: A delicate balance Another day and another piece of positive US activity data. Yesterday saw a strong January retail sales release. Though boosted by warmer weather, the data still positively contributes to the first quarter activity story where the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow measure for the first quarter has been revised up to 2.4% from 2.2%. 'Wot recession?' some might ask. The data provides ammunition for the Fed to remain in hawkish mode and for the market to continue to price two to three more 25bp Fed rate hikes by the summer. February's hawkish re-assessment of Fed policy has lifted short-dated US yields by 50bp over the last two weeks and reinserted a little volatility back into the interest rate and FX space. The 2-10 year US Treasury curve remains as inverted as at any point in this cycle - providing the dollar with support. Arguably the dollar could/should have traded even stronger given the backup in US rates. The reason it has not traded stronger is probably down to the risk environment. Equity markets are holding onto early-year gains and recent buy-side investor surveys show that cash levels - though dipping - are still far from levels to suggest the buy-side is fully invested in this equity rally. Indeed, surveys still point to underweight positioning in equity markets.   We suspect this delicate balance between a hawkish Fed and a buy-side still looking to add to risk assets will leave the dollar range-bound for the rest of this quarter. 1.05-1.10 could be the broad range in EUR/USD and something like 128-136 for USD/JPY - the latter also having to deal with a new Bank of Japan governor. For today, the US focus will be on the January PPI numbers (core expected to decelerate to 4.0 from 4.6% year-on-year), initial claims and the Philly Fed business outlook. We will also hear from the Fed hawks Loretta Mester (1445 CET) and James Bullard (1830). DXY should trade within a narrow 103.50-104.00 range. Chris Turner EUR: 1.08 remains our 1Q forecast It looks like EUR/USD is settling into a broad 1.05-1.10 trading range this quarter - leaving us comfortable with the EUR/USD profile we outlined in our latest FX talking publication: 'Soft landing, hard landing, no landing?'. That profile saw EUR/USD ending the first quarter near 1.08 before pushing decisively above 1.10 in the second as the US disinflation story accelerated at a time when China was reopening. The European Central Bank hiking a further 75bp - taking the deposit rate to 3.25% in May - certainly helps too, although the recent repricing in the Federal Reserve cycle is somewhat muting this story. There is not much in the way of eurozone data today and perhaps the most interesting ECB speaker will be Chief Economist, Philip Lane. A 1600CET he delivers the Dow Lecture at the NIESR in London - the lecture entitled: 'The Euro Area Hiking Cycle: An Interim Assessment'. Presumably, he will not want to push back too much against the 115bp of tightening priced by the markets this summer - even though we think it will be closer to 75bp.  EUR/USD is bouncing off the recent 1.0650/0660 lows helped by a slightly positive risk environment coming out of Asia. We would expect it to continue trading well within the confines of a 1.0650-1.0750 range today. Chris Turner GBP: Gains proving hard work Sterling continues to show high sensitivity to monetary policy. This week's slightly softer-than-expected wage and core CPI data have seen sterling hand back a budding rally. We suspect this will be the story for most of this year, where we see EUR/GBP trading in the 0.89/90 area. GBP/USD may, however, get a lift in the second quarter if we are right with our dollar call. The UK data calendar is quieter today ahead of tomorrow's release of January retail sales. Bank of England Chief Economist, Huw Pill, speaks at 1800CET, where he delivers a fireside chat on monetary policy. He's been seen as a little more hawkish recently and may choose to maintain that position until the BoE has finished its tightening cycle. We look for one last 25bp hike at the 23 March meeting - taking Bank Rate to 4.25% - where it will be left until summer 2024.   For today, cable should continue to find support in the 1.1950/2000 area. Chris Turner PLN: FX mortgage saga strikes back Today is a big moment for the Polish banking sector. This morning we should hear the decision of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in the FX mortgage case. As we mentioned earlier, this dispute is probably one of the main reasons why the zloty has significantly underperformed the CEE region this year. Thus, today's result should show whether the market's fears were real. And what is actually on the table? The ECJ was asked by a local court whether or not banks should receive interest on mortgage capital even when the loan contract had been invalidated by the court due to abusive clauses. Domestic courts are still struggling to judge how mutual obligations should be resolved if the loan is ruled to be invalid. In the event of a negative ruling for the banking sector, this would mean additional losses for the banks, which would of course have negative implications for Polish assets. It is hard to say what to expect today and how clear the decision will be. Another uncertainty is how much this risk is priced in. However, in any case it is an important tail risk for the zloty and Polish government bonds. Our Warsaw team covered all the details of the FX mortgage case in a recent article. It will be tough for the zloty to navigate through this news flow but as we mentioned earlier, we retain a bearish bias and expect the zloty to test 4.80 EUR/PLN. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The dollar stalled on Thursday as investors scooped up higher-risk currencies after a string of strong US economic data bolstered confidence in the global growth outlook, even as the Federal Reserve appears poised to raise interest rates further. However, the question for market watchers is how well the economy can hold up, especially as interest rates are much higher than many initially thought. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish data on the producer price index (PPI) for January. It is forecast that in annual terms the PPI will fall to 5.4% from 6.2% in December and the core PPI will fall to 4.9% from 5.5%. USD/JPY The yen pair started the day trading above 134.00, but the upward momentum was not maintained and USD/JPY fell below that level to 133.70. In the following hours, USD/JPY tried to make up for losses. At the time of writing, the yen pair is close to 134.00 and trading at 133.9520. The appointment of former BJ board member Kazuo Ueda as governor of the central bank cooled speculations about an early normalization of interest rates. In the past, Ueda has warned of the danger of premature interest rate hikes, putting an end to any fears of higher interest rates in the foreseeable future. The perception that Ueda could improve YCC, given accelerating inflation, could at least limit USD/JPY's rise. EUR/USD EUR/USD regained traction after Wednesday's declines and moved into positive territory just above 1.0700 early in the day on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair is trading slightly above 1.07. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament on Wednesday that she intended to raise key interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in March. Lagarde reiterated that core inflation in the euro area is still high and price pressures remain strong. Later in the day, ECB Chief Economist Phillip Lane and ECB Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta will deliver speeches. If ECB officials leave the door open to additional rate hikes after March, euro losses are likely to remain contained in the short term. Read next: Tesla Will Make Supercharger Network, Visa Will Allow The Use Of Cryptocurrencies To Settle Transactions| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The Bank of England has already signaled it may stop raising interest rates in March, and Wednesday's inflation figures reinforced that view. Softer-than-expected January UK inflation data weighed heavily on sterling during European trading hours on Wednesday. GBP/USD is trading positive around 1.2050 on Wednesday. Positive turnaround in risk sentiment helps pair maintain gains as investors await US macro data releases. The UK inflation data released yesterday surprised negatively, which resulted in lower expectations for rate hikes. This also followed positive employment data, with market participants now pricing in a peak rate below 4.5%. This week's positive data could be the stimulus the Bank of England (BoE) needed to signal an early pause in rate hikes that could see GBP face further selling pressure. AUD/USD The recent decline of the Australian dollar against the US dollar reflects the disparity in the growth prospects of the two economies. This morning's decline from the dismal Australian jobs was no exception - employment fell for the second month in a row in January, while the unemployment rate rose to its highest level since May. The pair has maintained its intraday gains for the first half of the European session and is currently trading near the 0.6920 region. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

USD/CAD rises to the highest level in a month, braces for the biggest weekly gains since early December. Successful break of short-term key resistance lines, 200-SMA directs bulls towards 61.8% Fibonacci ratio. Sellers should remain cautious beyond four-day-old support line. USD/CAD takes the bids to a fresh monthly high near 1.3490 during early Friday. In doing so, the Loonie pair rises for the fourth consecutive day while preparing for the biggest weekly run-up since early December 2022. That said, the USD/CAD bulls cheer the upside break of a 12-day-old ascending trend line and one-month-old resistance line, now support, to keep buyers hopeful. Also favoring the USD/CAD bulls is the quote’s successful trading above the 200-SMA. Given the aforementioned technical breakouts and bullish MACD signals, the USD/CAD pair is well-set to poke the mid-January swing high surrounding 1.3520. The same encompasses the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s January-February downturn. In a case where the USD/CAD remains firmer past 1.3520, the 1.3600 round figure may act as an intermediate halt before highlighting the previous monthly high of 1.3685 for the pair buyers. Read next: USD/JPY Is Trading Close To 134.00, EUR/USD Is Remaining Above $1.07| FXMAG.COM On the flip side, the 12-day-old previous resistance line and a downward-sloping trend line from January 19 put a floor under the USD/CAD prices of around 1.3480 and 1.3455 in that order. Following that, the 200-SMA and an ascending support line from Tuesday, respectively near 1.3400 and 1.3390, could act as the last defense of the USD/CAD buyers. USD/CAD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators

The cryptocurrency market still requires special regulations, new laws are still being introduced to this market. Wyoming remains the most popular state in the US for this market. JP Morgan is looking at the situation on the forex market. In this article: Wyoming is the most cryptocurrency-friendly states in the US Climate prediction model for wind and solar power The 2023 dollar projections by JP Morgan The Russo-Ukrainian war Wyoming is the most cryptocurrency-friendly states in the US Wyoming passed a bill Wednesday that effectively bans forced disclosure of private cryptographic keys by U.S. state courts. The private key is used to verify cryptographic transactions and prove ownership of a blockchain asset or address. The right includes any private keys associated with digital assets, someone's digital identity, or any other interests or rights that a private key provides. If approved by Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon, the bill will go into effect on July 1, 2023. Wyoming has long been touted as one of the most cryptocurrency-friendly states in the US It was the first U.S. state to declare a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) as a limited liability company (LLC) in July 2021, having previously considered state-issuing a stablecoin in February 2022, but has not gone very far since then. #cryptonews: Wyoming lawmakers pass a bill prohibiting forced disclosure of #Bitcoin private keys 🇺🇸 — CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) February 17, 2023 Climate prediction model for wind and solar power Economies around the world are moving towards renewable energy sources. China as the second largest economy in the world is introducing its own models that aim to accelerate and improve the green transformation. China has launched a national climate forecasting model for wind and solar resources to enable provincial governments to forecast energy demand and supply. Looking globally at renewables, unless new and stronger policies are implemented in 2023, global renewable power generation is expected to remain steady compared to 2022. While photovoltaics will break another record in 2023. China launches climate prediction model for wind and solar power https://t.co/DJKqCEH9bt pic.twitter.com/uR4bKzONIy — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 17, 2023 Read next: Microsoft: Bing With Artificial Intelligence And The First Mistakes And Confusing Answers| FXMAG.COM The 2023 dollar projections by JP Morgan 2022 was a historic year. The US dollar strengthened against almost every other major currency to levels not seen in decades as the Federal Reserve (Fed) aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation. The US dollar gained over 12% in 2022, hitting a two-decade high in September 2022. The 2023 dollar projections for various currency pairs are more related to country-specific factors that JP Morgan is looking at. The situation of the euro, pound and yen currencies will largely depend on developments in the economy. Currency markets have been volatile. Will we see the return of a strong U.S. dollar? And what’s the outlook for other major currencies? Explore J.P. Morgan Research insights: https://t.co/5Bc5HAn7ix pic.twitter.com/bE292j9fBr — J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan) February 16, 2023 The Russo-Ukrainian war The situation in Ukraine is getting worse. The Ukrainians, despite almost a year of defense, are still holding on, but Russia is not giving up. Several regions of Ukraine faced a barrage of missile attacks overnight, one of which hit the country's largest refinery. Meanwhile, Russia is increasing the number of reservists it is sending to the front lines as part of its anticipated spring offensive, and is already stepping up ground attacks in eastern and southern Ukraine. In addition, the world's government and military leaders gather in Munich, Germany, for the annual Munich Conference on International Security Policy. The theme of this year's summit is the Russo-Ukrainian war and it takes place just before the anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of its neighbour. World leaders convene in Munich; Zelenskyy rules out conceding territory for peace https://t.co/VTIFW9v3Lt — CNBC (@CNBC) February 17, 2023

The dollar rose to a six-week high on Friday as strong US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials prompted investors to bet on another rate hike. The Fed's target range is currently between 4.5% and 4.75%. Economists at Goldman Sachs on Thursday raised their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year. After previously expecting two more hikes, they said they now expect three more hikes of 25 bp in March, May and June. That would push interest rates to 5.25% to 5.5%. The US Economic Report will not include any macroeconomic data releases that could significantly affect the behavior of the US dollar. As such, market participants will pay close attention to risk perception. USD/JPY The yen pair hit its highest level in almost two months. USD/JPY has been trending up since the start of the day. USD/JPY started the day trading just above 134.07 and has now crossed the 135.00 mark. EUR/USD EUR/USD extended its decline during the Asian trading hours and hit its lowest level since early January below 1.0650. The technical outlook for the short-term pair shows that the bearish bias remains intact. Meanwhile, comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) officials add to the burden on the EUR/USD pair. The euro could weaken further as the market's interest-rate rise expectations for the European Central Bank may be overdone given comments from ECB members about the risks of excessive policy tightening. ECB board member Fabio Panetta said on Thursday that the ECB should consider the risk of unduly tightening policy and argued that the bank should not commit unconditionally in advance to future policy moves. From a more neutral point of view, the ECB's chief economist Philip Lane said he was open-minded about the exact amount of monetary tightening that would be needed to meet the inflation target. On the other hand, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reiterated that the interest rate will have to rise above 5% and stay there for some time for the Fed to control inflation. Read next: Wyoming Prohibits Forced Disclosure Of Private Cryptographic Keys By US State Courts, JP Morgan Projections Of FX Market| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD GBP/USD extends losses towards 1.1900 in the early European morning. The strength of the US dollar (USD) had a big impact on the GBP/USD exchange rate in the second half of the week. Hawkish comments from Fed policymakers and the latest released macroeconomic data have revived expectations that the Fed may decide to make additional interest rate hikes even after May. Data from the UK showed that retail sales rose by 0.5% in January, as compared to market expectations for a fall of 0.3%. While this reading was better than the market's 0.3% decline, December's -1% reading was revised lower to -1.2%, preventing Sterling from taking advantage of the data. AUD/USD Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman Lowe's comments did not stop the AUDUSD rate from falling. Governor Lowe warned that the RBA was keeping an open mind and their view was that further rate hikes were needed. Lowe also stated that interest rates are not on a predetermined path as it takes 18-24 months for rate hikes to make an impact in the economy. The pair of the Australian is in a downtrend on Friday. AUD/USD has fallen well below 0.69 and is trading below the 0.6820 level. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through the 104.33 high on Friday before turning sharply lower. The index is seen to be trading close to 103.60 at this point in writing as the bears are looking poised to remain in control. Potential remains for prices to drop towards 102.00 in the near term, before turning higher through 106.50 going forward. The US dollar index is working on a larger-degree corrective rally from the 100.50 low which was printed on February 02, 2023. The rally between 100.50 and 104.33 could be the first wave within the correction, which has the potential to push through 106.50 and 109.50 respectively. If the above structure holds well, prices could decline towards 102.00 as the second wave unfolds. As projected on the 4H chart here, the US dollar index is facing immediate resistance at 105.35 while support is seen around 102.00 respectively. A push above 105.35 will be constructive for the bulls and further open the door towards 109.50. Besides, note that 109.00-50 is passing close to the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 100.50. Trading idea: Potential bullish rally against 100.50 Good luck!   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313269

USD/CAD remains pressured after retreating from six-week high. Upbeat oscillators, sustained trading beyond 50-DMA keep buyers hopeful. Convergence of 100-DMA, four-month-old descending resistance line challenge buyers. USD/CAD bulls take a breather around 1.3480, following the run-up to refresh the monthly high, as the upside momentum failed to cross the key resistance confluence the previous day. Even so, the Loonie pair remains on the buyer’s radar on early Monday as it defends the previous week’s upside break of the 50-DMA, close to 1.3465 at the latest. It’s worth mentioning that the 50-DMA breakout joins the bullish MACD signals, as well as the upbeat RSI (14), not overbought, to keep the USD/CAD buyers hopeful. That said, a one-week-old ascending support line, near 1.3440 by the press time, adds to the short-term downside filters for the USD/CAD pair traders to watch on the break of the 50-DMA. Following that, a three-month-old ascending support line, around 1.3280 as we write, becomes crucial to follow as it holds the key to the Loonie pair’s slump towards the 1.3000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the 1.3520 resistance confluence enables the USD/CAD buyers to aim for the previous monthly high of 1.3685. In case where the quote remains firmer past 1.3685, the last December’s peak of 1.3705 may act as an extra check for the USD/CAD bulls before directing them to the October 2022 high surrounding 1.3980, as well as the 1.4000 round figure. To sum up, USD/CAD remains on the bull’s radar unless breaking 1.3440 support. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected

The dollar fell on Monday but stayed close to Friday's six-week high as a recent wave of positive economic data boosted market expectations for a tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair started trading at 134.32 and then rose rapidly towards 134.50. The momentum was not extended and the yen fell to 134.00. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading slightly above 134.00 at 134.0290. The geopolitical risk intensified over the weekend when North Korea fired ballistic missiles into eastern waters overnight after an intercontinental ballistic missile was launched on Saturday. Saturday's launch landed off Japan's west coast and prompted joint exercises between the US and South Korea as well as the US and Japan. The sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said the use of the Pacific as a "training ground" would depend on the behavior of US forces and warned of the growing presence of US military assets in the region. This comes as rumors swirl of a new Russian offensive in Ukraine and ongoing US-China spy balloon issues. Markets are still awaiting guidance from the new leadership of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), but hopes for a move away from ultra-easy monetary policy may be overly optimistic. EUR/USD European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau reiterated that inflation in the eurozone is "too fast and probably persistent", while arguing that the ECB needs to be more predictable in its communications and provide a short-term policy outlook. Later in the day the European Commission will release flash consumer confidence index for February, which is expected to slightly improve to -19.0 from -20.9 in January. Poor trading conditions, however, will likely see the pair's shares confined to a narrow channel. The EUR/USD pair started the week at 1.0686 but was falling. After the fall, the EUR/USD pair rose towards 1.07, but failed to maintain momentum and the pair is again around 1.0680. Read next: EY Will Review Darktrace Key Financial And Control Processes| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD After last week's hesitant action, GBP/USD managed to rebound around the mid-1.2000 area early Monday. The cable pair has been falling from above 1.2050 and is currently trading at 1.2025. Sterling could fall if the Bank of England raises interest rates by 25 basis points in March, but signals that this will be the last hike. Some worrisome economic data from the UK dampened additional rate hikes after March, and money markets now appear to favor a break from the May meeting. The widening of the US-UK rate differential has recently weakened sterling, which could get even worse if the BOE formally deems a potential March interest rate hike to be its last, and given the US data still favors a tightening of the rate path interest rates for the Federal Reserve. AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair is based on Friday's good rebound from around 0.6800, the lowest level since January 6, and gaining strong traction on the first day of the new week. The Australian pair was growing towards 0.69. AUD/USD managed to drink through 0.69 and trade above that level. This momentum was interrupted and the pair dropped to 0.6901. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

If we look on the daily chart of USD/CAD commodity currency pairs there is a few interesting things as follows: 1. The appearance of Bullish 123 pattern followed by Ross Hook (RH), 2. There is a deviation between price movement with CCI indicator. 3. The appearance of Vegas pattern on CCI Histogram indicator (20). 4. Both Sidewinder indicator in green which means Volatile/ really trending. 5. Chopzone indicator in Blue/Cyan which means = Bullish Trend. 6. Zero Line indicator in green which means Bullish. Based on 6 facts above we can conclude that if The Loonie now is in a healthy Bullish condition so that in the nearest time Ross Hook 1.3537 will try to break by this commodity currency pairs, as long as there is no downward correction beyond the 1.3228 level, USD/CAD has the potential to appreciate to the 1.3705 level as the first target and if the volatility and momentum at The Loonie is still sufficient to support the bull movement then it is possible that the 1.3978 level will become the second target.   Relevance up to 06:00 2023-02-26 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/119883

It’s PMI day, and we think the euro could benefit from the reinforcement of its growth story after a period of few domestic drivers. With the Fed's hawkish rate repricing having gone a long way, we suspect the USD rally may soon run out of steam, even though risk-off may delay a downtrend. Elsewhere, we expect a hawkish 50bp RBNZ hike, but dovish risks have risen Yesterday's visit by President Joe Biden to Kyiv reiterate the now well-established notion that this will be a long war USD: Supported by risk-off mood, but rally looks tired After a very quiet start to the week in FX due to a US holiday, we should start to see some action today. Yesterday’s visit by President Joe Biden to Kyiv and the pledge for more support to Ukraine don’t have clear implications for markets in the near term, but probably reiterate the now well-established notion that this will be a long conflict. The ramifications for the global economy can still be quite deep, especially in neighbouring Europe, but energy prices have been the main transmission channel from the war to the market, and TTF trading around 50 EUR/KWh is allowing markets to turn a blind eye to longer-term risks. We argued in yesterday’s FX Daily how this could be the week where the dollar rally starts losing some steam. The main reason for this is that the recent hawkish rhetoric and strong data have likely been absorbed by now and a further hawkish repricing in Fed rate expectations (currently embedding a 5.40/45% peak rate) is looking increasingly harder. We think that at this stage, it may be mostly down to external factors – like news from Ukraine/China or a general deterioration in risk sentiment – to push the dollar even higher. The key event on the Fed front this week, the FOMC minutes, may not match the hawkish tone we heard after the strong jobs and inflation data released after the meeting. PMIs will be watched in the US like in the eurozone, but the rebound in other surveys already favoured a positive re-rating in US growth expectations and may have set the bar quite high for a major positive surprise to lift the dollar. Still, signs of deterioration in the global risk sentiment this morning suggest today might not be the day for the start of a dollar downtrend, but – equally – we struggle to see DXY extend the recent rally to 105.00 and we could instead witness the start of a decline again towards 102.50-103.00 in the coming days. Francesco Pesole EUR: A reminder of the improved growth outlook The euro has been left without strong domestic drivers on the data front over the past week, so today’s PMIs will be watched quite closely. Consensus is leaning in favour of some modest improvement in both manufacturing and service gauges, and investors might see this as an opportunity to re-enter strategic medium-term long-EUR positions now that the dollar correction seems to be losing momentum. Instability in global risk appetite today may delay the beneficial effects on EUR/USD today, but we still see the balance of risks tilted to the upside for EUR/USD in the coming days, and a return to the 1.0750-1.0800 range seems possible. Elsewhere, it is a very busy week in Sweden. Despite some easing in inflation expectations in the Prospera survey released this morning, yesterday’s core CPIF inflation print came in hotter than expected at 8.7% (rising from 8.4%), and EUR/SEK dropped on expectations of more Riksbank tightening. While this fits our view for a recovery in the krona over the course of the year, we warn against celebrating too early. Remember that the slump in SEK was originally triggered by concerns about the Swedish economic and housing situation, and while more Riksbank tightening helps SEK in the near term, it raises the risks of a black-swan scenario materialising down the road. We think activity data and the outcome of wage negotiations can still generate significant volatility in the krona, and a sustainable move below 11.00 in EUR/SEK still looks premature.   What the Riksbank surely wants is a stronger SEK, and we have now gotten used to hearing references to the currency from many speakers. The minutes from the latest meeting, released yesterday, did all but confirm that there is a strong hawkish direction at the Riksbank. We have long argued how maintaining such rhetoric is likely the best way to navigate the current policy challenges in Sweden. We’d be surprised to hear any dovish hint from the two speakers today (Floden and Ohlsson) or by Governor Erik Thedeen tomorrow.   Francesco Pesole GBP: Looking unlikely to sustainably outperform EUR The PMIs will also be released in the UK this morning, and the consensus seems to be looking at an improving outlook here as well. Still, UK PMIs should continue to fall below the eurozone ones and therefore continue to point to the UK’s relative economic underperformance. Ultimately, we struggle to see the pound consistently strengthening against the euro, especially as we expect the Bank of England to deliver only one last 25bp hike in March, while markets are partly pricing in further tightening after that. EUR/GBP may stay range-bound or climb gradually at this stage. Francesco Pesole NZD: We expect 50bp by RBNZ, but watch the cyclone risk The Royal Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces monetary policy at 0100 GMT tomorrow and we are aligned with the consensus call for a 50bp rate hike – as discussed in our meeting preview. This is its first monetary policy meeting since November, and policymakers will need to take note of the deterioration in activity indicators, inflation having undershot the Bank’s projections, and a housing market that has remained under pressure. All those factors are enough, in our view, to convince the RBNZ to slow the pace of tightening from 75bp to 50bp, but there is probably little advantage in offering dovish signals to the market. Such signals would not just come with a smaller – 25bp hike – but also by revising the peak rate projections lower, which are currently at 5.50% in mid-2023. We have increasing doubts that the 5.50% level will be reached at all (rates are at 4.25% now). Despite the house price correction having largely been in line with RBNZ projections, lower-than-expected inflation would encourage stopping hikes – and hopefully the housing slump – earlier. It is, however, too premature to review those rate projections lower, in our view, at least until there is more conclusive evidence that the disinflation process has started. There is one key risk to our call though: the impact of the cyclone in New Zealand. This has triggered growing speculation that the RBNZ will only hike by 25bp or even pause, and is probably behind the drop in NZD/USD to 0.6200 this morning.  Admittedly, this downside risk has become more material now, but we stick to our call for a hawkish 50bp hike by the RBNZ, and we think this will lift the New Zealand dollar tomorrow. However, we think this may be one of the last times the RBNZ has a direct positive impact on NZD as many factors suggest a dovish pivot will come soon. Francesco Pesole Read this article on THINK TagsNew Zealand dollar FX Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

USD/CAD picks up bids to reverse the week-start losses but previous support line challenges the bulls. Geopolitical fears, return of full markets weigh on sentiment and underpin US Dollar rebound. Oil price bears the burden of firmer USD and fears of slow demand growth, higher inventories. Canada inflation eyed as BoC signaled a pause in rate hikes, US PMIs should be observed too. USD/CAD clings to mild gains near 1.3480 as it reverses the previous day’s losses during early Tuesday in Europe. In doing so, the Loonie pair buyers cheer downbeat prices of Canada’s key export item, WTI crude oil, as well as the full market’s favor to the US Dollar, ahead of the key US and Canadian statistics. WTI crude oil drops nearly 1.0% on a day as it renews its intraday low to near $76.60 by the press time. In doing so, the black gold reverses the previous day’s corrective bounce off a two-week low, the first in six days, amid fears of more supplies from the US and Saudi Arabia as Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday, “OPEC+ is flexible enough to change decisions whenever required.” Elsewhere, fears emanating from China, North Korea and Russia seemed to have joined the fresh run-up in the US Treasury bond yields, amid hawkish hopes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to underpin the US Dollar rebound. That said, the US and China alleged each other over the balloon shooting whereas the US diplomatic ties with Taiwan teased Beijing on Monday. On the same line, the United Nations (UN) Security Council is alarmed by Japan for North Korea’s missile testing and could help the US Dollar to remain firmer due to its safe-haven status. It should be noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) snaps a two-day losing streak while marking mild gains near 104.00. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies traces the US Treasury bond yields, as well as benefits from the traditional haven status. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields pick up bids to near the highest levels marked since early November 2022, mildly bid around 3.86% at the latest. While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Futures declined 0.40% intraday to 4,070 at the latest. Looking forward, the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, as well as the Bank of Canada (BoC) CPI Core for the said month, will be observed closely for immediate directions as the BoC has already teased a pause in the rates. As a result, softer prints of inflation data may allow the BoC to announce the policy pivot and propel the USD/CAD. On the other hand, the preliminary readings of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February will be important for the US Dollar ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Given the recently hawkish bias for the Fed, versus the BoC’s dovish tone, the USD/CAD is likely to witness further upside unless the Oil prices witness a strong rally. Technical analysis A one-week-old support-turned-resistance line near 1.3490 guards the USD/CAD pair’s immediate upside ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s December 2022 to February 2023 downside, near 1.3540 at the latest. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD bears may aim for the 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA), close to 1.3400 by the press time, as an immediate target during the quote’s fresh downside past the latest low of 1.3440. Following that, the monthly bottom surrounding 1.3260 will be in focus.

The dollar was parked below recent peaks on Tuesday, as a three-week rally faded and traders waited on economic data to figure out whether it's warranted to push the dollar up any further. Strong U.S. labour data and sticky inflation have raised U.S. rate expectations and supported the dollar's rally this month - Tuesday's European and U.S. manufacturing data and Friday's core PCE price index will guide the next steps. After an unannounced visit to Kiev, US President Joe Biden will visit Poland on Tuesday. Biden will reportedly talk about strengthening Poland's security by increasing NATO's presence in the country. USD/JPY USD/JPY regains positive traction on Tuesday and maintains its bidding tone throughout the first half of the European session. The pair is gradually approaching the level of 135.00. The yen pair at the time of writing is close to 134.70. The services PMI in Japan turned out to be much better than expected and from the previous reading. The manufacturing PMI was well below expectations, falling month-on-month. On the policy front, the European Central Bank has continued to aggressively tighten policy, despite signs that inflationary pressures may have peaked. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points at its February meeting to the highest level since late 2008, marking another hike of the same magnitude next month and reaffirming its commitment to fighting inflation. Source: investing.com EUR/USD The euro stayed below USD 1.07, oscillating around the weakest level since January 6. In the eurozone and Germany, the manufacturing PMIs turned out to be weak, below expected levels. Services PMI rose. And also ZEW economic sentiment showed an improvement in sentiment. Source: investing.com Read next: Baltic Pipe Is Alternative Energy Source For Poland| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The data on public finances in the UK released this morning exceeded estimates. The pound strengthened on Tuesday after data showed an unexpected rebound in UK business activity, suggesting the economy could avoid a deep recession. The pound managed to break through 1.2100 and is currently trading just above. UK data showed private sector business activity surged in early February with the Composite PMI rising to 53 from 48.5, providing a boost to sterling. As the UK private sector is resilient to strong inflation, the Bank of England is likely to continue to raise its key rate without worrying about a deep recession. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said late Monday evening that they would hold further talks with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol in the coming days. Cleverly is also reportedly planning to address Tory MPs on Wednesday to give an update on the negotiations. Source: investing.com AUD/USD The minutes of the RBA meeting revealed most of what was already known to the market. The outlook for the Australian economy has many positive aspects, but a potential concern is that the CPI outperforms both PPI and wage inflation. The year-on-year CPI by the end of 2023 was 7.8%, and the PPI in the same period was 5.8%. Tomorrow the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the Wage Price Index. The AUD/USD pair came under renewed selling pressure on Tuesday and reversed much of the positive move from the previous day. The pair remains below the 0.6900 level for the first half of the European session. The Aussie pair is above 0.6880. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

USD/CAD seesaws around six-week high after rising the most in three weeks the previous day. Descending resistance line from early November 2022 guards immediate upside. Upside break of 100-DMA, four-month-old trend line keeps buyers hopeful. USD/CAD grinds near a 1.5-month high during early Wednesday, after crossing the key moving average and resistance line the previous day. That said, the Loonie pair struggles to defend USD/CAD bulls as a downward-sloping resistance line from early November 2022, close to 1.3555 at the latest, challenges the immediate upside of the quote. The upbeat performance of the USD/CAD price could be linked to the strong RSI (14), not overbought. It should be noted, however, that the January 2023 peak surrounding 1.3685 and late 2022 top near 1.3705, could act as the last defense of the USD/CAD bears. As a result, the USD/CAD upside appears to have limited room towards the north. Meanwhile, a daily closing below the 100-DMA and the previous resistance line from early October 2022, respectively near 1.3515 and 1.3505, precede the 1.3500 round figure and could recall the USD/CAD bears. Following that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s August-October 2022 upside, near 1.3355, will challenge the USD/CAD bears before directing them to the 200-DMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3210, also known as golden Fibonacci ratio. Overall, USD/CAD remains on the bear’s radar even as the road to the north appears bumpy. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected

US stocks now join the treasury selloff, and the US dollar pushes higher on the back of the increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. The preliminary PMI in the US came in better than expected for February, and the services PMI ticked above the 50 mark, into the expansion zone, for the first time since last July. Walmart and Home Depot  The strong economic data further fueled the Fed hawks. But this time, the stocks sold off as well, despite the strong economic data. The weak outlook from Walmart and Home Depot left the no-landing bets under the dark shadow of higher US yields. The S&P500 dived 2% on Tuesday, below the minor 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on the latest October to February rally, and below the 4000 psychological mark. Fed Today, the FOMC minutes will be closely watched. We know that the Fed officials will sound concerned with the strong jobs market and will point at the resilience of the economy to continue hiking the rates. That could further weigh on equity appetite. Fed hawks are supportive of the US dollar, however. Read next: The Pound Gained After The Publication Of PMI Reports, Euro Is Below 1.07, USD/JPY Pair Is Above 134.50| FXMAG.COM Reserve Bank of New Zealand Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiked its interest rates by 50bp today, after a three-month break and Nvidia will be reporting Q4 earnings after the bell. Nvidia results may look ugly, but long-term investors could look beyond the potentially ugly results: Here is why: https://medium.com/@swissquote.education Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:36 US equities join the treasury selloff 1:46 Walmart, Home Depot beat, but warn of weaker outlook 4:55 USD gains on rising hawkish Fed bets 6:37 RBNZ hikes by 50bp 7:32 FOMC minutes to further weigh on sentiment 8:02 Should you look past potentially ugly Nvidia earnings? Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Walmart #HomeDepot #Nvidia #earnings #FOMC #minutes #Fed #expectations #RBNZ #rate #hike #USD #EUR #NZD #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The dollar rose slightly on Wednesday, continuing to trade near six-week highs on the back of strong economic data. Survey data released on Tuesday showed U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February to reach its highest in eight months. In the euro zone, a survey-based gauge of activity also surged, hitting a nine-month high. Investors' focus now turns to the release of the minutes from the Fed's latest meeting later on Wednesday, which could offer more insight into policymakers' plans. USD/JPY One pair is moving in a sine wave pattern today. In the first hours of trading, USD/JPY dropped to around 134.60 and then rose to around 1134.95. This move has been repeated once again, and USD/JPY is now heading down towards 134.65. Bond purchases and BOJ loans dominate the headlines in Japan. The Japanese yen found some support against the US dollar on Wednesday morning, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) had to buy 10-year government bonds due to the yield breaking the upper limit set by the BoJ (0.5%) of their policy range. It was the second consecutive trading session during which this took place. BOJ's Tamura gave mixed messages, stating that loose monetary policy is now required, but future policy changes will be crucial at some point in the future. EUR/USD The movement of the EUR/USD pair in Asian Russia and at the beginning of the European traded in the range of 1.6550-1.6650. In the European session, the pair fell and is currently trading around 1.6300. Yesterday's data from the euro zone showed further improvement, with flash PMI beating estimates in the services sector, while production fell slightly. The Zew Sentiment Survey reflected an improvement in sentiment and optimism, with expectations and current conditions outperforming estimates in both the Eurozone and Germany. This morning brought German inflation data for January up from December, confirming comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde about a 50 basis point hike at the upcoming meeting Read next: Sweden And Finland Are Getting Closer To Becoming NATO Members| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The cable pair in the Asian session kept its momentum above 1.21. The European session is not favorable for the gunt pair and the pair is below 1.21. At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at 1.2090. Sterling pulled back on Wednesday after rising sharply on stronger-than-expected British business activity as traders awaited consumer confidence data and focused on Britain's political headaches. The latest UK PMIs beat forecasts and showed business activity in the UK, especially in the services sector, picking up sharply in February. The latest data suggest that the UK economy may be improving, giving the Bank of England more wiggle room to increase interest rates. UK inflation is on the way down, but at a current level of 10.1% is sharply higher than the Bank of England’s (BoE) mandate of around 2%. Inflation is expected to fall quickly over the coming months, according to the BoE, as energy prices and the cost of imported goods fall. AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair adds to the significant losses from the previous day and remains under selling pressure for the second day in a row on Wednesday. The Aussie Pair is holding below 0.69. At the beginning of the day, AUD/USD started to fall to the level of 0.6830 and in the Asian session kept trading in the range of 0.6830-0.6840. In the first hours of trading in the European session, the Australian pair fell below 0.6820, but managed to rebound and at the time of writing was just above 0.6830. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through 104.24 during the New York session on Wednesday before pulling back. The index is seen to be trading close to 104.00 levels at this point in writing as the bears are ready to drag the price lower towards 102.00. On the other hand, if prices break above 104.30 consistently, the bulls would want to take out resistance at 105.35 before giving up. The US dollar index is carving a larger-degree corrective rally, which began from 100.50 on February 02, 2023. The above corrective rally is expected to terminate close to 106.50 and up to 109.30 in the next few weeks. Within the above structure, a counter-trend drop could unfold dragging prices below 102.00 before the bulls are back. Ideally, prices should remain above 100.50 to keep the above bullish structure intact. Furthermore, a push above 105.35 will confirm and open the door towards 106.50 and 109.30 as projected on the 4H chart here. Also, note that 109.30 is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of its earlier decline from 114.70 to 100.50, hence a bearish reaction is possible. Trading idea: A potential bullish move to continue against 100.50 Good luck! Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313745

USD/CAD holds lower ground near intraday low, snaps two-day uptrend. Bearish MACD signals, downbeat RSI hints at further downside of the Loonie pair. Convergence of 100-HMA, support line of two-week-old ascending triangle restricts short-term declines of the USD/CAD pair. USD/CAD drops 0.25% intraday during the first loss-making day in three heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair drops to 1.3520 by the press time. That said, the USD/CAD pair’s latest moves appear forming a fortnight-old ascending triangle formation. The same joins downbeat RSI (14) and bearish MACD signals to favor the bearish chart formation. However, a clear downside break of 1.3500 becomes necessary as the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA) joins the stated triangle’s lower line to increase the strength of the stated support confluence. Following that, tops marked during late January and early February, respectively near 1.3520 and 1.3475, could probe the USD/CAD bears before directing them to the theoretical target surrounding 1.3200. On the contrary, USD/CAD buyers may aim for the latest swing high surrounding 1.3570 before poking the stated triangle’s top line, close to 1.3585 by the press time. In a case where the Loonie pair remains firmer past 1.3585, the bearish chart formation gets defied as the bulls brace for a late 2022 swing high surrounding 1.3700. To sum up, USD/CAD slips off bull’s radar but the sellers await clear break of 1.3500 to retake control. USD/CAD: Hourly chart Trend: Limited downside expected

Last night's release of the February FOMC minutes provided little comfort to dollar bears who were looking for signs that the Fed was increasingly buying into the disinflation/slowdown narrative. Yet the subsequent rise in US yields and strengthening of the dollar has been quite muted. It's a quiet day for data in the G10 space, but EM FX is interesting USD: FOMC minutes can keep the dollar supported Despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounding quite relaxed at the 1 February press conference and declaring that the 'disinflation process has started', the minutes of that meeting were largely hawkish. The consensus agreed that further rate increases were needed and that inflation remained unacceptably high. There were no hints of a pause and very little to divert market pricing of three more 25bp hikes from the Fed over the March, May and June meetings. This backdrop can keep the dollar supported in the near term and potentially into the 22 March FOMC meeting, where the debate will focus on whether the Fed Dot Plots will retain a median view of a 100bp easing cycle in 2024. For dollar bears, both activity and price data will have to soften over the coming weeks to make an impact on an otherwise hawkish Fed. The next set of meaningful US data is tomorrow's core PCE data for January - but even that is likely to see the core month-on-month reading rising to 0.4% from 0.3%. And for today, the market should not take too much notice of revisions to the strong fourth quarter GDP data -  driven by an inventory build and weaker imports. Our first quarter game plan is that DXY does not hold onto these gains. But for the time being, it looks like DXY wants to probe higher to the 105.00 area with outside risks this quarter to the 106.00/106.50 area. Chris Turner EUR: PMIs drowned out by hawkish Fed The better run of European PMIs earlier this week has rather been drowned out by the hawkish Fed. And actually, the German Ifo proved something of a reality check, where the current assessment of business conditions continued to deteriorate. The good news for EUR/USD is that the re-pricing of the European Central Bank cycle has nearly matched that of the Fed - meaning that the two-year EUR:USD swap differential has not substantially widened in favour of the dollar. In fact, it was interesting to read in the FOMC minutes - under the market developments section - that the Fed felt it was interest rate differentials and the improved Rest of World growth prospects that had been weighing on the dollar into January. These are the factors we have been using in our scenario analyses.  For the short term, EUR/USD remains soggy and it is hard to rule out a break under 1.0600 towards the 1.05 area. Our game plan remains that 1.04/1.05 could now be some of the lowest EUR/USD levels of the year - but it feels like EUR/USD could trade on the offered side for a few weeks yet. Chris  Turner EUR/SEK has seemed to find support at the key 11.00 level for two consecutive sessions after rising bets on Riksbank tightening had put pressure on the pair. We could see a temporary break below 11.00, but our view is that a sustained SEK rally is premature. Our short-term fair value model shows how there is no risk premium left on EUR/SEK: in other words, markets have priced out the risk of a collapse in the housing market in Sweden and a consequent slump of the whole economy. While hawkish Riksbank rhetoric is helping the krona, markets may have moved too quickly on the optimistic side. Upcoming data may underpin the rising risks to the Swedish economy, and could trigger a rebound in EUR/SEK before a sustainable move below 11.00 can materialise - we think from the end of the second quarter onwards. Francesco Pesole GBP: BoE's Mann speaks today Sterling is just about holding onto Tuesday's gains when strong PMI data triggered a sharp re-pricing of the Bank of England curve. Markets now price a further 50bp of BoE hikes by June - taking the Bank Rate to 4.50% - and the policy rate being kept there until early 2024. For today, the focus will be on a speech at 1030CET by the BoE's Catherine Mann. She speaks at the Resolution  Foundation on 'The results of rising rates: Expectations, lags and the transmission of monetary policy'. This sounds like it could be a dovish speech - i.e. let's pause and see what prior tightening has done. However, she is a hawk and with no clear signs of an easing in tight labour market conditions we doubt she will want to knock the current market pricing of the BoE cycle. We think EUR/GBP probably traces out a 0.8750-0.9000 range for the first half of the year, while cable should find support under 1.20. Also - whisper it. Sterling offers quite attractive risk-adjusted yields in the G10 space. Chris Turner ZAR: Seeking alpha There is much talk of 'stock-picking' or 'seeking alpha' this year as financial markets may no longer be purely risk on/risk off. In other words, local stories are having a greater bearing and that is certainly true in the EM FX space. We are no longer looking at the kind of homogeneous returns driven purely by the Fed/China story.  Here we will quickly look at two topics. The first is that some emerging currencies are lagging as politicians start to resist high interest rates and question central bank independence. This has been a loose fear in Brazil with the new Lula administration questioning whether the central bank needs to lift its inflation target. The Brazilian real has lagged gains in EM FX this year and we expect it to continue underperforming. More surprising have been events in Israel, where the Foreign Minister heavily criticised the central bank for hiking rates 50bp on Monday. Normally an outperformer, the Israel shekel was hit hard on the news and the Israeli government has spent the rest of the week trying to re-affirm the independence of the central bank. We like the shekel and see USD/ILS trading back to 3.30/3,40 later this year. But we will now have to watch political developments closely. Meanwhile, the South African government yesterday announced a major financial support plan for state utility, Eskom. The plan has been greeted well by Eskom bondholders, though the support means South Africa's sovereign debt to GDP profile deteriorates. The South African rand has been an underperformer this year and near 8% implied yields through the three-month forwards and the China recovery story have not been enough to provide support. We think investors will continue to pause for thought before chasing yields in the rand. For those investors wanting to take exposure in EM FX, we continue to think the Mexican peso remains attractive. It has one of the highest risk-adjusted yields in the EM FX space (implied yields corrected by implied volatility from the FX options market) and the Mexican sovereign trades on a narrower CDS than most after Mexico refused to add on debt during the pandemic. USD/MXN looks biased to the 18.00 area. Chris Turner Read this article on THINK

The dollar held shy of multi-week peaks against other major currencies on Thursday, a day after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting supported, but did not add to markets' view the central bank will raise rates further. Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting released last night confirmed the hawkish rhetoric of Fed officials over the past two weeks. The key takeaway, of course, is that the Fed is committed to keeping interest rates higher for longer to bring inflation down to the 2% target. The impact of the protocol was somewhat dampened as the meeting was preceded by a series of metrics released in February, most notably employment figures, which showed the US economy was doing well, leaving more room for the Fed to raise interest rates to bring down inflation. Markets will be focused on US GDP as well as the accompanying labor market data in the form of jobless claims. US GDP is expected to come in marginally weaker than the previous. USD/JPY USD/JPY struggles to gain any significant traction on Thursday and trades in a tight band just below the psychological 135.00 mark for the first half of the European session. The yen pair started the day above 134.90, in the Asian session USD/JPY fell towards 134.70. In the European session, USD/JPY increased and is now just below 135.00. In addition, the USD/JPY pair is also weighed down by hawkish concerns around the Bank of Japan (BoJ), due to the imminent end of the term of governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Alternatively, Fed policymakers are poised for further interest rate hikes, according to the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, which in turn is fueling demand for the US dollar. EUR/USD EUR/USD in the Asian session was above 1.06, and the pair traded close to the 1.0630 level. In the Asian session, EUR/USD fell below 1.06. This morning brought data on inflation in the euro zone for January, in which annual inflation fell to 8.6% in the euro zone and to 10.0% in the EU. In January, food, alcohol and tobacco accounted for the largest contributors to the euro area's annual inflation rate, followed by energy, services and non-energy industrial goods, according to data released by Eurostat. In addition, EU members will hold further talks on a new package of sanctions against Russia after failing to reach an agreement on Wednesday. According to Reuters, the proposed package includes trade restrictions worth more than €10 billion. Russia is reportedly planning to cut oil production in response to Western sanctions. The heightened risk of rising energy prices, which will contribute to stronger inflation in the eurozone, could help the euro hold its position in the short term, as such a situation would force the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates further after March. Read next: Tesla Opens Its Global Engineering Headquarters In Palo Alto, California| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The cable pair in the Asian session was rising towards 1.2070, but in the European session it lost momentum and fell to the level of 1.2020. Currently, GBP/USD is at 1.2022. GBP/USD extended its decline towards 1.2000 early Thursday after reversing much of the PMI-driven gains on Wednesday. Markets will be keeping a close eye on US stocks and Brexit developments for the remainder of the day. AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair was rising towards 0.6840 in the first hours of trading. Then the pair of the Australian fell and rebounded again. In the European session the Aussie Pair traded below 0.6820, currently the AUD/USD pair is trading above 0.6820. Australian capital expenditure data beat estimates across the board (reaching its highest level since Q4 2021) showing optimism in these sectors. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

Hawkish were the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. They confirmed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are indeed not lying when they say that they will continue hiking the interest rates to tame inflation toward the 2% mark. US and China Both the US 2 and 10-year yields bounced lower from early-week highs. A part of it was perhaps explained by the rising tensions between the US and China after China said that their relationship with Russia is ‘rock solid’. Stock market The S&P500 eased another 0.16%, Nasdaq tipped a toe into the bearish consolidation zone, but US equity futures are in the positive this morning, as the tech-heavy index is boosted by an almost 9% jump in Nvidia shares in the afterhours trading, after the company announced soft, but better than expected results. US GDP Due today, the US GDP is expected to have expanded 2.9% in the Q4, which is a fairly strong number. A read above expectations will certainly boost the Fed hawks on the idea that the US economy is resilient enough to withstand more hikes, while a number below expectations could ease the hawkish Fed tensions. But the days when bad news was good news are gone. At this point, we can’t really bet that a soft growth would soften the Fed’s hand. Only soft inflation could do that. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:25 FOMC minutes confirmed hawkish stance 2:50 Nvidia results help Nasdaq shake off post-minutes moodiness 4:12 But could the US stock rally extend?! 6:30 Watch US GDP update today 7:30 USD consolidates gains, EURUSD struggles 8:27 Energy prices push lower Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #FOMC #minutes #Nvidia #earnings #EUR #inflation #natural #gas #crude #oil #EIA #US #GDP #data #USD #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

USD/CAD picks up bids to pare day-start losses, reverses the previous day’s pullback from seven-week high. Oil price cheers hopes of economic recovery, geopolitical tension amid sluggish session. Talks surrounding Fed concerns join mixed moves of bond market to probe Loonie traders. USD/CAD grinds near intraday high as it reverses the day-start losses, as well as dialing back the previous day’s u-turn from a seven-week high, around 1.3545, heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair fails to justify the firmer prices of Canada’s main export item, namely WTI crude oil. That said, the black gold rises 0.65% intraday to $76.15 by the press time, extending the previous day’s rebound from the two-week low. While tracing the reasons, the recently firmer statistics from the US and Europe, as well as other major economies, join China’s readiness to infuse the economy towards more output to propel Oil prices. Additionally favoring the WTI bulls are the news suggesting more geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Sino-American tussles. Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index (DXY) snaps a three-day uptrend as it grinds near 104.55 while DXY bulls struggle for clear directions after refreshing a seven-week high the previous day. The US Dollar’s latest weakness could be linked to the dicey markets as the market’s fears that the strong US data and further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes are already priced in. The same seemed to have weighed on the US Treasury bond yields. On the same line could be the mixed headlines surrounding China, due to its peace plan for Ukraine and ties with Russia, as well as due to the US-China readiness for trade talks, despite not sharing the details and criticizing each other on various issues. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures fade recovery moves from the monthly low by retreating to 4,015, down 0.10% intraday at the latest. Further, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields seesaw around 3.86%, making it less active on the day, whereas the US two-year bond coupons stay inactive near 4.69% by the press time. Given the dicey markets and cautious mood ahead of the key US data, namely the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January, the USD/CAD pair traders may witness lackluster moves ahead. However, hawkish hopes from the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge may not hesitate from disappointing the Loonie pair buyers if printing downbeat numbers. Also read: US PCE Inflation Preview: Can the US Dollar turn bullish for good? Technical analysis Although Thursday’s bearish spinning top lures the USD/CAD sellers, the nearness to the 100-DMA support of 1.3510 and bullish MACD signals suggest limited downside room for the pair

Technical analysis: USD/CAD has been trading upside and there market respected the rising trend-line, which is good sign for the further upside movement. Due to the strong upside movement and the upside momentum, I see potential for the higher price towards the upside structural objectives. Upside objectives are set at 1.3610 and 1.3660 Stochastic oscillator is showing fresh bull cross, which is another good sign for the further upside movement. Key support is set at 1.3525   Relevance up to 10:00 2023-02-25 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313957

The dollar index rose to seven-week highs on Friday as investors braced for an extended hold on higher US interest rates after a series of strong economic data in the US. Investors await data on the US Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The annual core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, is projected to fall to 4.3% in January from 4.4% in December. The core consumer price index (CPI) fell to 5.6% y/y in January from 5.7% in December. A modest fall in core PCE inflation should not come as a big surprise at this point. The PCE Core Price Index is expected to increase by 0.4% m/m. In the event that the monthly value exceeds the market consensus, the US dollar may gain strength. It is worth noting, however, that markets are already fully pricing in two more Fed rate hikes of 25 basis points in March and May. USD/JPY USD/JPY started the day with a decline towards 134.20. Then the yen pair moved upwards. USD/JPY hit 135.00 and is now trading at 135.3850 The Japanese yen may fall further after the new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled that very loose monetary policy should be maintained. Ueda's comments after his approval in the lower house of Japan's parliament did not produce any clear hawkish signal that could fuel a resurgence of speculative demand for the yen in the near term. EUR/USD EUR/USD traded above 1.06 in the Asian session, mostly in the 1.0605-1.0610 range. In the European session, the EUR/USD pair lost momentum and returned to levels below 1.06. Currently, the pair is trading just below 1.06 at 1.0580. The euro started the European session weaker after worse than expected data on German GDP. GDP data showed that the German economy contracted (-0.4%) in the fourth quarter of 2022 and brought recession talk back. Moreover, a weaker-than-expected rise in monthly core PCE inflation could trigger a USD correction and help the EUR/USD rebound ahead of the weekend. Read next: Visa Success At The Expense Of Small Businesses| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The cable pair in the Asian session and in the beginning of the European session traded around 1.2020. The GBP/USD pair lost momentum and fell below 1.20, at 1.1987. British consumers have become more optimistic about their personal finances and economic outlook, but their sentiment is much lower than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic, research firm GfK said on Friday. Improved consumer sentiment does not always translate to improved spending, as evidenced by the flat retail sales reading for February from the Confederation of British Industry on Thursday. However, energy prices are finally backing down from last year's highs and the UK economy is not looking as bad as expected just a few weeks ago, according to this week's Purchasing Management Index (PMI) business activity survey that showed an unexpected rebound in early February. AUD/USD The pair of the Australian in the Asian session stayed above 0.6819, but with the start of the European session it began to fall below 0.68. Currently the Aussie Pair is trading below 0.6870 The Australian yen gained in value after the alleged head of Japan's central bank maintained the status quo on monetary policy and was apparently in no rush to end its massive stimulus programme.. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

USD/CAD attracts some dip-buying on Monday and draws support from a combination of factors. Sliding Oil prices undermines the Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the pair amid a stronger USD. The fundamental backdrop favours bullish traders and supports prospects for a further move up.  The USD/CAD pair attracts some buying following an intraday dip to sub-1.3600 levels on Monday and hits a fresh daily high during the early European session. The pair is currently placed around the 1.3625 region, though remains below its highest level since January 6 touched on Friday. Crude Oil prices meet with a fresh supply on the first day of a new week, which is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and lending support to the USD/CAD pair. Worries that rapidly rising borrowing costs will dampen economic growth and dent fuel demand overshadow the prospect of lower exports from Russia. This, in turn, fails to assist Oil prices to build on a two-day-old recovery move from a nearly three-week low touched last Thursday. Apart from this, bets that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will pause the policy-tightening cycle, bolstered by softer Canadian consumer inflation figures released last week, weighs on the domestic currency. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to stick to its hawkish stance in the wake of stubbornly high inflation. This, along with a softer risk tone, keeps the safe-haven US Dollar pinned near a multi-week high and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. The prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed were reaffirmed by the stronger US PCE data on Friday, which indicated that inflation isn't coming down quite as fast as hoped. Adding to this, the incoming positive US macro data points to an economy that remains resilient despite rising borrowing costs and fueled hawkish Fed expectations. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continues to boost the Greenback. Read next: Pfizer Is In The Early Stages Of An Acquisition Of Biotech Company Seagen, Twitter's Staff Has Shrunk Since Elon Musk Took Over| FXMAG.COM The aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favour of bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside. Further, the technical picture also indicates a bullish continuation pattern may has formed after Friday's strong up day, which also helped to confirm the major trendline break of the previous two sessions. This continuation pattern could see prices rise up to the 1.3800 level conditional on confirmation from a break above Friday's high at 1.3665.  Market participants now look to the US economic docket, featuring the release of Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales data. This, along with Oil price dynamics, should provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CAD pair and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities.

The dollar fell from a seven-week high on Monday as investors took stock of last week's strong US economic data and outlook for global interest rates. Friday's data showed that US consumer spending rose sharply in January, while inflation accelerated. Traders now expect the Fed to raise interest rates to around 5.4% by the summer. USD/JPY The first day of the new week for the USD/JPY pair was mixed in both the Asian and European sessions. The pair started the week at 136.4430, but fell to 136.00 during the day. At the time of writing, the yen was trading at 136.2970. In late February, the Japanese yen weakened above 136 to the dollar, hitting its lowest level in more than two months as Ueda, nominated governor of the Bank of Japan, doubled down on the bank's very restrictive monetary policy. The new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, said on Monday that the benefits of the bank's current monetary policy outweigh the costs, stressing the need to maintain support for the Japanese economy with very low interest rates. The comments reinforced signals that the bank will not turn away from its dovish attitude anytime soon. Previously, Ueda had opposed monetary tightening in response to cost-driven inflation and rejected immediate changes to the bank's yield curve control, warning that such measures would deeply hurt growth. EUR/USD EUR/USD started the week at 1.0556. In the Asian session, it mostly traded near 1.0550 and even 1.0560, then fell below 1.0540. In the European session, the euro was rising towards 1.0570. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0560. The US currency has benefited widely from the view that its central bank has more power and leeway to counter inflation. Meanwhile, the Eurozone has to meet the varying needs of its twenty national economies, some of which will struggle to cope with even minor further interest rate increases. Interest rate differentials are likely to dominate euro fundamentals this week, although some key domestic data is emerging, most notably official eurozone inflation data. Due for release on Thursday and the annual base rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.3% Read next: BNP Paribas Sued For Providing Financial Services To Companies That Allegedly Contribute To Deforestation Of The Amazon Rainforest| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The movement of the cable pair resembles the movement of EUR/USD. GBP/USD started the week at 1.1950, but during the day GBP/USD fell towards 1.1930. In the European session, it gained an upward momentum and exceeded the level of 1.1980. Politically, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is due to travel to the UK today to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on a new Brexit deal. This could see a resumption of trade between Northern Ireland and the UK, but it has not really translated into the GBP yet. AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair is the worst performer among the major currency pairs. The Aussie Pair started the day above 0.6730 but fell towards 0.6700 in the next session. In the European session, AUD/USD has slightly increased and at the time of writing it is just above 0.6710. The Australian dollar weakened to around $0.67, trading at its lowest level in nearly 2 months as better-than-expected US economic data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to raise interest rates further to stem rising inflation. Weak domestic employment data also affected the currency with Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 3.7% in Q4 despite expectations to hold steady at 3.5%. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest monetary policy statement showed it had revised its inflation forecast for this year higher, saying price pressures were spreading to services and wages. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through 104.24 lows intraday on Monday before finding bids again. The index is seen to be trading close to the 104.45 mark at this point in writing as bears prepare to drag further toward 104.00 levels in the near term. Intraday resistance could be seen close to the 104.55-60 zone for bears to be back in control. The US dollar index is broadly unfolding a larger degree corrective rally since hitting 100.50 lows early in February. The index might have terminated its first wave close to 105.00 over the last week and could be preparing for a corrective pullback toward 102.50 at least. We can expect the final wave to go higher toward 106.50 and further thereafter. The US dollar index is facing immediate resistance at 105.35; while support comes in around 103.40, followed by 102.40 levels respectively. A continued drop towards 104.00 will add further confidence to the fact that Wave B is progressing. On the flip side, if prices push beyond 105.35 from here, it could open the door toward 106.50 sooner than expected. Trading plan: Potential drop to 102.50 near term then rally resumes. Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314234

USD/CAD picks up bids to reverse the week-start pullback from monthly top. Cautious optimism underpins WTI rebound amid sluggish session. US Dollar remains on the way to posting the first monthly gain in five amid hawkish Fed concerns. Canada's Q4 GDP could help Loonie pair buyers on matching downbeat forecasts. USD/CAD prints a gradual rebound from intraday low amid a sluggish end to February, picking up bids to 1.3585 heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair fails to justify the recent rebound in Canada’s key export item, namely WTI crude oil, as traders brace for the fourth quarter (Q4) Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. That said, the WTI crude oil bulls attack $76.00 while the refreshing intraday top, as well as reversing the previous day’s pullback from a one-week high. It should be noted that he hopes of easing US-China tension and hopes of upbeat inflation, as well as manufacturing activity in China, add strength to the black gold’s latest rebound. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints mild gains around 104.80, following a downbeat start of the week, as greenback bulls cheer hawkish Fed bets despite mixed US data amid an unimpressive day so far. Talking about the risk catalysts, market sentiment improves on headlines suggesting the fact that the US offers an olive branch to Chinese companies despite its political differences with the dragon nation. “Despite fraying relations with Beijing, US President Joe Biden is expected to forego expansive new restrictions on American investment in China, denying a push by some hawks in his administration and Congress,” reported Politico late Monday. However, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s comments on China suggest that the political tussle among the world’s top two economies stays on the table. “China’s stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine puts it in an “awkward” position internationally and any weapons support to Russia would come with ‘real costs,’” said US Security Adviser Sullivan on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Monday. That said, mixed US data jostled with the hawkish Fed speak and the US-China tension contributed to the lack of market clarity. That said, US Durable Goods Orders slumped -4.5% in January versus -4.0% expected and 5.1% prior. However, the Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft grew 0.8% versus 0.0% analysts’ expectations and -0.3% previous readings. On the same line, the US Pending Home Sales rallied 8.0% MoM versus 1.0% expected and 1.1% prior. At home, Canada’s Q4 Current Account Deficit grew to -10.64B versus -8.41B. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 3,995, extending the week-start rebound from the monthly low, whereas the US two-year Treasury yields remain sidelined near 4.79% after reversing from a three-month high on Monday. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond coupons seek clear directions near 3.92% following a downbeat start of the week. Looking ahead, Canada’s Q4 GDP Annualized, expected to ease to 1.5% versus 2.9% prior, could keep the USD/CAD buyers hopeful. Also important to watch will be the second-tier US data, namely Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence, Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for February, as well as the preliminary US trade numbers for January. Technical analysis Unless dropping back below the previous resistance line from early November, around 1.3570 by the press time, USD/CAD remains on the bull’s radar.

The dollar is restrengthening this morning after a soft start to the week. Still, the data flow is not endorsing any unwinding of Fed hawkish bets and further improvements in risk sentiment may become harder to sustain. Today, keep an eye on French and Spanish inflation, and on the Norges Bank FX purchases announcement UK PM Rishi Sunak and EC President Ursula von der Leyen at a press conference on a new post-Brexit trade arrangement for Northern Ireland USD: Not trusting a big rebound in risk sentiment The dollar is trading stronger across the board this morning after suffering a correction yesterday that was due to a rebound in global equities and probably some month-end flows. We have recently highlighted how the narrative for the greenback has turned more structurally supportive, meaning that a return to a USD downtrend will take time and may only be very gradual. That is unless incoming data start painting a different picture for the US economic and inflation outlook, which would force some unwinding of recent hawkish bets on the Fed. This week’s key data releases will be the ISM surveys, and in particular Friday’s ISM services index, which served as a benchmark for the rapid swings in US growth sentiment over the past two prints. Still, we have some interesting data points to monitor today. The Conference Board consumer confidence indicator is expected to rise after a small contraction in January, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is also expected to improve, while wholesale inventories may hold at 0.1% month-on-month in the January read. US data may not move the market dramatically today, so the dollar may be primarily driven by global risk sentiment. We struggle to see a material and sustained recovery in global equities in such a worsening valuation environment, and with data still supporting the Fed’s hawks for now, the dollar’s short-term bias still appears neutral/modestly bullish. A return above 105.00 in DXY seems possible in the ISM services release on Friday. Francesco Pesole EUR: Regional CPI figures in focus Inflation figures for January are the main highlight of the week in the eurozone, and today’s numbers out of France and Spain may already start moving the market. Remember that inflation rebounded in both of those countries in January, which underpinned the recent ECB hawkish narrative. Today, consensus sees a stabilisation in the EU-harmonised French inflation at 7.0% and a slowdown from 5.9% to 5.7% in Spain. Unless we see a material surprise on the downside – that would suggest a more widespread easing in price pressures across the eurozone – today’s regional CPI figures may fail to dent hawkish expectations for ECB tightening. Markets are currently pricing in around 130-140bp of tightening before reaching the peak. This could offer some floor to the euro, and we expect any re-strengthening of the dollar to see high-beta commodity currencies more at risk than the euro for the time being. Still, the risks of 1.0500 being tested in the near term remain elevated. Francesco Pesole GBP: Impact of new Northern Ireland deal may be only short-lived The pound is one of the best-performing currencies since the start of the week after the confirmation of a new UK-EU deal on Northern Ireland. The “Windsor Framework” reviews some sticky points of the existing NI protocol, essentially reducing the number of checks on trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The direct impact on the UK economy should not be significant, but markets are probably welcoming the conciliatory steps in UK-EU trade relationships. It seems hard, however, that the pound will find sustained support simply based on the new NI deal. The central bank story should instead remain the most central driver of GBP, and given the lack of data today, markets will watch three Bank of England speakers today: Jon Cunliffe, Huw Pill and Catherine Mann. A 25bp move in March is fully in the price, and the debate appears to be much more centred on whether the Bank will need to keep tightening beyond March: markets are definitely swinging on the hawkish side, expecting a total of 80bp of tightening before reaching a peak. For now, the global central bank narrative and improving UK data are not giving many reasons to unwind such hawkish expectations, and the pound may continue to prove more resilient than other pro-cyclical currencies. Francesco Pesole Scandinavia: Grim data in Sweden and Norges Bank FX sales in focus Swedish growth data came on the soft side this morning. The second print of fourth-quarter data showed a larger contraction (0.9%) than previously estimated (0.6%). Although this is clearly backward-looking data, the ongoing tightening by the Riksbank, a very fragile housing market and high inflation continue to point to a rather grim economic outlook in Sweden. Remember that we are approaching the end of wage negotiations in Sweden, which may suggest even more monetary tightening will be required. We see the recent good performance of SEK as unsustainable unless data start pointing at an improvement in the growth outlook. A return to 11.10+ in EUR/SEK (paired with elevated volatility) is a tangible possibility in the coming weeks. In Norway, we’ll keep a close eye on Norges Bank’s announcement of daily FX purchases for the month of March this morning. Net purchases were increased to 1.9bn NOK for February after three months of reductions from the 4.3bn peak in October 2022. With NOK being the worst-performing currency in G10 this year and risk sentiment instability continuing to pose downside threats (remember the krone is the least liquid currency in G10), some support in the shape of lower FX purchases may come from Norges Bank today. This may avert – or at least delay – another decisive break above 11.00 in EUR/NOK. Francesco Pesole Read this article on THINK TagsFX Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The U.S. dollar resumed its rally on Tuesday after dipping against sterling and the euro a day earlier, putting it back on track for its first monthly gain since September. The greenback's rally gathered momentum in recent weeks as upbeat economic data led to mounting expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates more than initially expected. The US economic report will include the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey for February. In January, the annual expected consumer inflation component of this survey rose to 6.8% from 6.6% in December. The latest inflation data for January showed that price pressure remained higher than expected. If consumers' inflation expectations continue to rise, the US dollar could gain strength in the second half of the day. USD/JPY In the Asian session, the yen traded in the range of 136.20-136.30, but in the Asian session there was a sharp increase and at the time of writing USD/JPY is trading at 136.6930. Recent comments from new BOJ vice-president Shinichi Uchida and current BOJ governor candidate Kazuo Ueda had a dovish tone during testimony before the upper house of the Japanese parliament. Ueda confirmed his intention to stick to "abenomics" and defend the central bank's monetary policy stance. Japanese data released overnight were mixed as industrial production was weaker than expected and retail sales rose. Industrial production recorded the first decline in 3 months, when production fell in January by 4.9%MoM. Retail sales rose by a solid 1.9% m/m, with clothing and motor vehicles having the largest share. Manufacturing in Japan remains an area of ​​concern; however, consumption looks good and is indeed on track to recover. EUR/USD The euro pair fell in the morning session from levels above 1.06 to levels around 1.0585. In the European session, the EUR/USD pair rose significantly above 1.0620. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0615. However, deteriorating market sentiment seems to be limiting the pair's gains for now as the focus shifts to the Conference Board's US consumer confidence survey. The consumer price index (CPI) in France rose to 7.2% y/y in flash estimates in February from 7% in January. Similarly, the annual CPI in Spain rose to 6.1% from 5.9% in the same period. After stronger-than-expected inflation figures from major eurozone economies, markets are almost fully pricing in the European Central Bank's (ECB) final interest rate at 4%, down from 3.75% last week, with hawkish ECB betting helping the euro hold its ground. GBP/USD The cable pair in the Asian session maintained a downward trend and in its decline headed to the level of 1.2028. The European session provided a positive impulse for GBP/USD and the pair rose above 1.2090. The pound pair managed to break above the 1.21 level but failed to hold and is currently trading below that level at 1.2098. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced late Monday that he had reached an agreement with the European Union to replace the Northern Ireland Protocol with the Windsor Framework. While it's too early to tell whether these developments could have a lasting impact on sterling's valuation and the Bank of England's (BOE) policy outlook, the initial market reaction helped the pair to gain momentum. UK Prime Minister Sunak also noted that MPs would vote on the new deal and that they would respect the results of the vote. Later in the session, several BOE decision makers will give speeches. AUD/USD In the Asian session, the Australian pair recorded a significant drop from the 0.6750 levels to the 0.6710 levels. In the European session, the AUD/USD pair is rising again and trading around 0.6730. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com

Canadian GDP expected to slow in Q4 It’s a very light data calendar for Canadian releases this week, with today’s GDP report the sole tier-1 event. Canada’s economy is expected to slow to 1.5% y/y in the fourth quarter, following a solid 2.9% gain in Q3. A slowdown in economic activity is what the Bank of Canada is looking for, as inflation remains public enemy number one.  CPI is moving in the right direction as it fell to 5.9% in January, down from 6.3% in December. The BoC is optimistic that the downturn will continue, with a forecast that inflation will fall to 3% by mid-2023 and hit the 2% target by the end of the year. The BoC will have to tread carefully in this tricky economic landscape. The economy is cooling and while inflation is easing, it remains much higher than the 2% target and will require additional rate hikes which will make a soft landing a difficult endeavour. If growth continues to weaken in 2023, there is a strong chance of the economy tipping into a recession by mid-2023. The Bank meets next on March 8 and the markets are expecting a 0.25% hike for the second straight time. The Bank would like to take a pause in its tightening cycle but this will require a substantial drop in inflation. In the US, strong employment and consumer data and stubborn inflation have supported the Fed’s hawkish stance and there is talk of the Fed raising rates as high as 6%. It was only a few weeks ago that the markets were talking about a ‘one and done’ rate hike in March, followed by a long pause and perhaps some cuts by year’s end. This has all changed as the US economy has proven to be surprisingly resilient, despite rising rates and high inflation. The markets are currently pricing in three more rate hikes this year, but that could change in a hurry if key releases in February show that the economy is slowing down.   USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.3701 and 1.3794 1.3570 is under strong pressure in support. 1.3478 is the next support line This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.  

If we look on the 4 hour chart The Loonie then there will be 2 important things: 1. The appearance of Bearish 123 pattern. 2. There is a hidden deviation between Price movement with Stochastic Oscillator indicator. Based on two things above then as long as USD/CAD back to break above the level 1,3658 on the nearest time has the potential to go down to test the level of 1,3533. If this level successfully broken then level 1,3440 will become the next main target to pursue and level 1,3356 will be the second target to test later. (Disclaimer)   Relevance up to 04:00 2023-03-02 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/120403

Technical outlook: The US dollar index slipped through 104.00 during the New York session on Tuesday before finding support. The index managed to pull back from the overnight lows and is seen to be trading close to 104.50 at this point in writing. Ideally, prices should stay below the 105.00 level as the bears prepare to drag the price lower towards 102.50 at least. The US dollar index is unfolding a larger-degree corrective wave structure, which began around 100.50 in early February. The projected targets are seen at around 106.50 in the near term, followed by 108.00. Within the proposed corrective rally, the index might have terminated its first wave close to 105.00 as seen on the 4H chart. If the above is correct, prices should stay below 105.00 and drag lower to 104.00 and 102.50 in the next few weeks. A drop below 104.00 will confirm the same and accelerate the move towards the 102.50-103.00 area. Also, note that 102.50 is the Fibonacci 0.618% of the recent rally between 100.50 and 105.00 levels, hence the probability for a bullish turn remains high. Trading idea: Potential short-term drop to 102.00, then resume higher Good luck!     Relevance up to 08:00 2023-03-29 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314426

USD/CAD takes offers to renew intraday low, reverses from “double top”. 100-HMA, two-week-old ascending trend line restrict immediate downside. RSI’s pullback from overbought territory, bearish MACD signals favor sellers. 200-HMA, 1.3530 act as crucial supports for Loonie pair bears to watch. USD/CAD welcomes March with a bearish bias as it renews its intraday low near 1.3620 during early Wednesday morning in Europe. That said, the Loonie pair marked the biggest daily gain in a week the previous day, as well as posted the heaviest monthly jump since September 2022 by the end of February. The quote’s latest pullback could be linked to its inability to cross the late February swing high of 1.3665. In doing so, the pair portrays the double top around 1.3660-65 region. The chart formation also takes clues from the bearish MACD signals to lure sellers. On the same line could be the RSI (14) pullback from the overbought territory. Hence, the USD/CAD pair is likely to register further downside. However, a convergence of the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA) and an upward-sloping support line from mid-February, near 1.3580, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Also adding to the downside filter are the 200-HMA and the weekly low, respectively near 1.3540 and 1.3530. In a case where the USD/CAD drops below 1.3530 support, the pair confirms the bearish “double top” chart formation, which in turn suggests the theoretical fall towards 1.3400. Alternatively, a sustained break of the 1.3660-65 hurdle could aim for January’s peak of 1.3685 and the last December’s high near 1.3700 before allowing the USD/CAD bulls a free zone to rule. USD/CAD: Hourly chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

Gold has been hot and cold as of late. After rallying to $340 an ounce since early November, the precious metal lost more than $100 of its value in February. The last month of the winter was its worst since June 2021. The XAUUSD sell-off was based on the strengthening U.S. dollar and the return of 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields to the 4% mark. Judging by Bank of America's forecasts of a 6% increase in the federal funds rate and Nordea Markets' forecasts of a 4.5% increase in the 10-year Treasury yield, gold's rebound at the turn of the winter and spring is limited. The precious metal entered 2023 in good spirits. Fears over an imminent recession and the growing popularity of disinflation were promising for the bulls on the XAUUSD. However, the October–January rally did not result in an inflow of capital to the ETFs, while the February sell-off forced investors to take money from them. Standard Chartered notes that by the end of the last month of winter, the outflow will amount to 20 tonnes, with 11 tonnes lost by specialized exchange-traded funds during the last four sessions. Not surprisingly, rising U.S. Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and force holders to get rid of it. At the same time, optimism prevails among the 30 experts participating in the LBMA survey. They forecast an average price of $1,860 an ounce for the precious metal in 2023, and the most ardent bulls see it at $2,025. Respondents believe the future dynamics of XAUUSD is based on three factors—the outlook for the dollar and inflation, as well as geopolitics. Currently, the dominant narrative in the market is "higher rates and a longer period of holding them at their peak." However, keep in mind that monetary tightening affects the economy with a time lag. The most aggressive increase in the federal funds rate in 10 years has not been fully accounted for, and if the Fed continues along these lines, it runs the risk of breaking something. Read next: Some Mcdonald's Locations Don't Promote Hip-Hop Stars' New Meal| FXMAG.COM Dynamics of gold and U.S. dollar The deterioration of U.S. macro statistics will bring back the topic of recession and the Fed's dovish turn to the market, which will lower Treasury yields, weaken the U.S. dollar and create a tailwind for XAUUSD. Nevertheless, weak data on consumer confidence and the purchasing managers' index from the Chicago Fed are unlikely to become a reliable source of weakness in the U.S. economy. Without statistics on the labor market and inflation, it is too early to talk about this. In this regard, the gold rally at the turn of winter and spring looks like a false start. The precious metal is clearly getting ahead of itself and can be punished for it. Technically, on the daily chart of gold, there was a rebound from the level of $1,807 per ounce mentioned in the previous article, which allowed us to form the longs. A failed resistance test at $1,835, $1,850 and $1,865 will allow us to take the profits and reverse. The recovery of the upward trend requires the growth of the precious metal above $1,880 per ounce.   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-03-06 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/336395

The dollar weakened and the Chinese yuan gained on Wednesday after Chinese manufacturing activity rose at the fastest pace since April 2012, while the euro gained after regional price data in Germany boosted inflation concerns. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also benefited from strong Chinese economic data that beat expectations, with the official Industrial Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 52.6 last month from 50.1 in January. Upbeat China PMI data showed that Chinese economic activity continued to gain momentum following the decision to reopen the economy in December. The situation sparked a rally in major Asian stock indices, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index opening in the red. USD/JPY The yen traded above 136.25 in the Asian session, but fell sharply below 136.00 in the European session. The USD/JPY pair has dropped significantly to 135.30 in the last hours. USD/JPY at the time of writing is just above 135.30 (135.3040). The Japanese yen (JPY) strengthened slightly after data released today showed the Manufacturing PMI (Feb) was better than expected. EUR/USD On Wednesday, the trade of the euro pair is significantly positive, the EUR/USD pair has been rising since the beginning of the day. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0670. Data released on Tuesday showed accelerating inflation in France and Spain, the eurozone's two largest economies, raising the European Central Bank's (ECB) expectations for interest rate hikes. The pair is taking advantage of the ECB's hawkish expectations and the significant weakness of the US dollar. All eyes are on German inflation and US ISM PMI data. Markets expect the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the European Central Bank's preferred measure of inflation, in Germany to fall to 9% yoy in February from 9.2% in January. If the annual HICP unexpectedly approaches or even exceeds January's value, the euro's initial reaction is likely to outpace its rivals. Markets are almost fully pricing in the ECB's final interest rate at 4% in 2023, and a strong inflation print from Germany should allow the ECB's hawkish bets to dominate the euro's valuation. Read next: Developer Vanke Is Selling 300 Million Shares To Allocate For The Proceeds To Debt Repayment| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair is not doing as well as EUR/USD, despite rising to levels above 1.2080 in the Asian session. In the European session, the cable pair fell towards 1.2020, but rebounded and rose above 1.2050. Sterling rose marginally against a weaker dollar on Wednesday, trimming gains made earlier in the session after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said nothing had been decided in terms of whether interest rates would need to rise again. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reportedly told his MPs to give the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) time and space to study the details of the new deal. The recent UK-EU deal or "Windsor Framework" has given the pound some momentum but it has struggled to maintain said gains. The reasons for this may be partly because the economic impact of the deal is unlikely to be significant for the UK economy as it does not improve trading conditions between the rest of the UK and the EU. A recent poll by the Bank of England found Brexit no longer a key uncertainty for UK businesses. AUD/USD AUD/USD gains on Wednesday. The Aussie Pair fell significantly at the beginning of the day, but then rebounded and maintained its upward trend. The Australian pair is trading above 0.6775 at the time of writing. The Australian dollar fell below 67 cents after Q4 quarter-on-quarter GDP was 0.5% instead of the 0.8% forecast and compared to the previous 0.7%, which was revised up from 0.6%. The currency trimmed losses later in the day thanks to solid data from China. Annual GDP by the end of December was 2.7%, in line with expectations. Today's GDP figures come ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting next Tuesday. They are expected to raise their target cash rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.60%. If it does, it will be the tenth increase since it started in May last year. The latest inflation reading is well above the RBA target range of 2-3% at 7.8% year-on-year. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

USD/CAD clings to mild gains after defying a bullish chart formation. Upbeat oscillators, sustained trading beyond previous resistance line keep buyers hopeful. 100-DMA appears the key support, Loonie buyers have multiple hurdles on the north. USD/CAD bulls struggle to keep the reins around the 1.3600 threshold during early Thursday in Europe. The Loonie pair’s latest grinds could be linked to the mixed technical signals witnessed on the Daily chart, as well as the market’s inaction. That said, the USD/CAD pair slipped beneath a two-week-old bullish channel’s lower line the previous day, which in turn suggested the quote’s declines towards the resistance-turned-support from mid-December 2022, close to 1.3550 by the press time. However, the 100-DMA level surrounding the 1.3500 threshold and multiple tops marked during late January, as well as early February, near 1.3470, could challenge the USD/CAD bears past 1.3550. Alternatively, the bullish MACD signals and upbeat RSI (14), not oversold, keeps USD/CAD buyers hopeful of bouncing back beyond the previous support line of the stated channel, near 1.3620. Following that, the tops marked in February and January, respectively around 1.3665 and 1.3685 will precede the December 16, 2022 swing high of 1.3705 to challenge the USD/CAD buyers. To sum up, USD/CAD is likely to remain sidelined between the previous support line surrounding 1.3550 and the immediate channel’s lower line of near 1.3620. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Limited upside expected

The main component of the dollar's weakness yesterday was a report from China indicating that their manufacturing sector is growing strongly. It is an important component of China's economic recovery after its massive shutdown. Another factor putting bearish pressure on the dollar was the strength of the euro. Together, these fundamental events led to a 0.39% decline in the dollar. Also, in the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management, U.S. manufacturing data shows that inflation continues to rise. The ISM said on Wednesday that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 47.7% in February from 44.7% in January. These data coincided with the consensus forecast. The report also noted that activity in the manufacturing sector continues to be at its lowest level since May 2020, when the global economy was forced to stop. Values of such diffusion indices above 50% mean economic growth, and vice versa. The further away from 50%, higher or lower, the faster or slower the rate of change. The report said that the price index rose to 51.3%. This is the first time in four months that U.S. producer prices have begun to rise. Analysts say rising manufacturing prices could mean that the Federal Reserve will not be able to control inflation even as it continues to aggressively tighten monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 73.8% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points and 26.2% that the Fed will be more aggressive in raising rates by 50 basis points. Looking at the components of the report, the new orders index climbed to 47% from 42.5% in January. At the same time, the production index fell to 47.3% from the previous 48%. The labor market lost momentum, returning to a lower reading of 49.1% from 50.6% in January. On such mixed data, the dollar is still holding its former positions with small deviations, reinforcing itself with the yield of 10-year bonds. Yields on 10-year bonds topped 4% for the first time since October.   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-03-03 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/336525

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through the 104.45 highs intraday on Thursday after carving a low at 102.72 earlier. The index is seen to be trading close to 104.35 at this point in writing as the bears prepare to drag the price lower again. The index is also facing the past support-turned-resistance zone around 104.30-40. The instrument is looking lower from here in the near term. The US dollar index has carved a larger-degree bearish boundary between 114.70 and 100.50 in the past several weeks. The same is being retraced since early February 2023. The index is expected to reach 106.50 at least in the next few weeks. As the corrective wave unfolds, a short decline towards 102.50-105.00 cannot be ruled out. The recent boundary being worked upon is between 100.50 and 105.00 and prices are expected to drag towards 103.25 in the near term. A potential remains for a drop through 102.50, which is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above rally. The bulls would be poised to be back in control thereafter. Ideally, prices should stay above 100.50 in the medium term. Read next: Twitter Employees Are Overburdened As Elon Musk Tries To Run Twitter With Fewer Staff| FXMAG.COM Trading idea: A potential near-term drop through 102.50 and then the rally will resume. Good luck!   Relevance up to 12:00 2023-03-30 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314677

USD/CAD meets with a fresh supply on Friday and is pressured by a combination of factors. Bullish Oil prices underpin the Loonie and act as a headwind amid a modest USD weakness. Recession fears, hawkish Fed expectations should limit losses for the USD and lend support. The USD/CAD pair attracts some sellers near the 1.3600 round-figure mark on Friday and maintains its offered tone through the early European session. The pair is currently placed around the 1.3575 region, down just over 0.10% for the day, though any meaningful downside still seems elusive. Crude Oil prices hold steady near a two-week high touched on Thursday amid the latest optimism about a strong fuel demand recovery in China - the world's top importer. This, in turn, is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie, which, along with a modest US Dollar downtick, exerts some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. That said, growing worries that rapidly rising borrowing costs will dampen global economic growth and dent fuel demand could cap gains for Oil prices. Apart from this, hawkish Fed expectations support prospects for the emergence of some USD dip buying and should contribute to limiting losses for the major. The US CPI, PPI and the PCE Price Index released recently indicated that inflation isn't coming down quite as fast as hoped. Moreover, the incoming upbeat US macro data, including the Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, pointed to a resilient economy. Adding to this, a slew of FOMC members backed the case for higher rate hikes to tame stubbornly high inflation and remains supportive of elevated US bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond rose to its highest level since last November and the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note shot to levels last seen in July 2007, which, in turn, favours the USD bulls. Apart from this, speculations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) could pause the policy-tightening cycle, bolstered by the softer Canadian CPI report released last week, warrant caution before placing aggressive bearish bets around the USD/CAD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent upward trajectory witnessed over the past two weeks or so has run its course. Traders now look to the release of the US ISM Services PMI, due later during the early North American session. Apart from this, Oil price dynamics should provide some meaningful impetus on the last day of the week.

February proved a counter-trend month in FX markets, where firm US activity and price data saw the dollar reclaim a third of its losses since last October. March looks set to be a mixed month for FX, where presumably a hawkish Fed can keep the dollar supported a little further. It looks like the broader dollar bear trend will have to take a short raincheck In this article In data we trust Further adjustments to FX forecasts   Shutterstock U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell In data we trust Dollar strength in February was really a function of incoming data rather than central bank speak. In fact, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell proudly started the month by saying that the broad disinflation trend had started – a view quickly shelved by the market after the strong January releases of US jobs and core PCE price data. Will February’s dollar gains be quickly reversed? There is a scenario where US activity data reverses lower this month from inflated January levels – those high readings driven by warmer weather and aggressive seasonal adjustment factors. And should the housing slowdown start to feed into official rental statistics, core PCE could reverse lower too. Yet the reason we doubt investors are ready to jump back into short dollar positions is the 22 March FOMC meeting. Here, the Fed will have little choice but to sound hawkish. And some upward revisions to the Dot Plot fed funds expectation should support the recent hawkish re-pricing of the Fed curve. We have mentioned this several times before, but a severely inverted US yield curve is not conducive to the kind of benign dollar decline that seemed likely in January. And central banks tightening into slowdowns will generate greater headwinds for risk assets. This again is not a particularly positive story for pro-cyclical currencies such as the euro – at least in the immediate future. Further adjustments to FX forecasts Last month, we raised our EUR/USD profile and had felt that the second quarter could be the best quarter of the year for this pair. Sticky US inflation suggests that clear signs of disinflation may not emerge until the summer. We are therefore revising lower our EUR/USD forecast for the second quarter, where we now see volatility in a 1.05-1.10 range depending on the data. And we are pushing back our 1.15 EUR/USD forecast to the fourth quarter when our macro and rate strategy teams now look for the substantial compression in two-year EUR:USD swap differentials – a key driver of the spot rate. Elsewhere, the Chinese recovery will continue to help the commodity FX bloc – though broader gains in this segment will not emerge until the second half when the Fed has greater confidence in disinflation. And one of the best-performing currencies in the world should remain the Mexican peso. This has been buoyed by some of the highest risk-adjusted yields and Mexico’s position as a major beneficiary of ‘friendshoring’ direct investment trends.   TagsFX Dollar     Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

USD/CAD struggles to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a range on Monday. Retreating US bond yields keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and acts as a headwind. A modest downtick in Oil prices undermines the Loonie and lends support to the major. The USD/CAD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses, around the 1.3600 mark heading into the European session. The pair, meanwhile, remains within Friday's broader trading range and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. A softer tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive, which, in turn, acts as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. That said, a modest pullback in Crude Oil prices - amid worries that a deeper global economic downturn will dent fuel demand - undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and lends some support to the major. The fears resurfaced after China set a lower-than-expected target for economic growth and forecast that the economy would expand by 5% in 2023. Apart from this, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve will stick to its hawkish stance favour the USD bulls and support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the USD/CAD pair. The incoming US macro data indicated that inflation isn't coming down quite as fast as hoped and pointed to an economy that remains resilient despite rising borrowing costs. Adding to this, a slew of FOMC members backed the case for higher rate hikes and opened the door for a 50 bps lift-off at the March policy meeting. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. Powell's comments will be closely scrutinized for clues about the Fed's future rate-hike path, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term trajectory of the USD. Investors this week will also confront the release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs report, popularly known as NFP on Friday, to determine the next leg of a directional move for the USD/CAD pair and before placing aggressive bets. Heading into the key event/data risks, the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment will continue to drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, Oil price dynamics should allow traders to grab short-term opportunities in the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases on Monday, either from the US or Canada. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop favours bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the major is to the upside.

Substantial corporate supply in February Record-breaking supply YTD thus far at US$171bn • Substantial corporate supply in February, totalling a significant US$126bn. This is the highest monthly supply since March 2021, jumping just slightly higher than March 2022. After US$45bn supplied in January, YTD supply thus far this year sums up to US$171bn. This is significantly larger than previous years, with 2021’s US$140bn the next largest YTD figure. Redemptions were just US$47bn in February, meaning net supply amounted to US$79bn. As a result, net supply YTD is now at US$85bn. • The Healthcare sector saw the most supply last month with US$34bn, followed by US$28bn in TMT. The Utility sector and the Consumer sector also saw notable amounts with US$20bn and US$18bn respectively. Furthermore, a large portion of last month’s supply was longer out on the curve, with US$42bn in the 9-12yr maturity bucket and US$34bn in the 17yr+ maturity bucket. • Reverse Yankee supply totalled another €5.5bn in February, now €11bn for the year thus far. The cross-currency basis swap has tightened since October by about 15bp in the 5yr and 8bp in the 10yr. In addition, the cross-currency basis swap is also not that wide historically. At the same time, the USD EUR spread differential has widened, particularly on the 5yr, albeit marginally tighter on the past week. As a result, the 10yr area has opened up an even larger cost saving advantage for US issuers to issue in euro and swap back to USD. And this is now the case for the 5yr too. This creates an attractive cost saving advantage for Reverse Yankee supply. Financial supply was somewhat low in February, as Bank capital is most favoured • Financial supply was somewhat low at just US$20bn in February. This is marginally lower than previous years, which normally came closer to US$25-30bn. Furthermore, redemptions amounted to US$28bn in February, meaning last month’s net supply was negative at -US$8bn. Financial supply is now sitting at US$87bn on a YTD basis. This is lower than the US$104bn and US$136bn seen in 2021 and 2022 respectively but is closer to the US$91bn seen in 2020. • Interestingly, issuers focussed on Bank capital supply, as US$8bn AT1 and T2 supply came to the market, compared to just US$4bn in Bank senior. Although the reverse can be said about January, therefore on a YTD basis Bank senior supply totals US$59bn, while Bank capital amounts to US$12bn. Read the article on ING Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

There is a few interesting things on the USDX 4 hour chart : 1. Bearish 123 pattern followed by the appearance of Ross Hook (RH). 2. Move inside the downside channel. 3. Move under the EMA 10. From those three things abobe seems like #USDX will continue the downside until if it manages to break below level 104,06. If this level successfully broken then #USDX has the potential to go downside up to the level 103,73 as the main target and the level 103,50 as the next target to be addressed as long as there is no upward correction passing through the level 104,97 because if this level successfully broken above then all the downward scenario that has been described before will cancel itself. (Disclaimer)   Relevance up to 04:00 2023-03-08 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/120767

Technical outlook: The US dollar index slipped below 104.00 in the early Asia session on Tuesday. After carving an intraday low of 103.78, the index is seen to be trading above 103.85 at this point in writing. Bears are looking inclined to drag lower toward 103.20-25 in the near term before finding some bids coming. The US dollar index has carved a meaningful larger degree bearish boundary between 114.70 and 100.50 in the past several weeks. Since then, the index has been retracing higher and is projected toward 106.50 at least. In fact, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the above bearish boundary is seen passing through 109.30, which could be the second target. The US dollar index has carved its first wave of the above corrective rally between 100.50 and 105.00. It is currently progressing lower towards 103.25 and up to 102.50 levels as the second wave unfolds. We can expect a rally toward 106.50 and 109.30 levels thereafter. Ideally, prices stay above 100.50 interim support. Trading plan: Potential near-term drop to 103.25 and 102.50 before the rally resumes. Good luck!     Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/315128

USD/CAD extends its sideways consolidative price moves through the early European session. Bullish Oil prices underpin the Loonie and act as a headwind amid a modest USD weakness. The downside remains cushioned ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony. The USD/CAD pair continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday and remains confined in a familiar trading range around the 1.3600 mark through the early European session. The latest optimism over a fuel demand recovery in China pushes Crude Oil prices to the highest level since last January, which, in turn, underpins the commodity-linked Loonie. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone is seen weighing on the safe-haven US Dollar and acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. The downside, however, remains cushioned as traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of this week's key event/data risks and await a fresh catalyst before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. Tuesday's key focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony, which will be looked upon for clues about the future rate-hike path amid bets for a 50 bps lift-off at the March FOMC meeting. The expectations were lifted by the incoming US macro data, which indicated that inflation isn't coming down quite as fast as hoped and pointed to an economy that remains resilient despite rapidly rising borrowing costs. Adding to this, a slew of FOMC policymakers recently backed the case for higher rate hikes. In contrast, the Bank of Canada (BoC) had signalled in January a likely pause in its tightening cycle and is now expected to leave rates unchanged at the upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. This will be followed by the monthly employment details from Canada and the US (NFP), which should help determine the near-term trajectory for the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, the divergent Fed-BoC policy outlook suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside and any meaningful dip is likely to get bought into.

There is a few interesting things on the daily chart USD/CAD commodity currency pairs: 1. The appearance of three Wiseman signal. 2. There is a deviation between price movement with Awesome Oscillator indicator. 3. The price moves above the open Alligator gaping upwards. 4. The appearance of Bullish 123 pattern follow by 2 or Ross Hook (RH). Based on the facts above we can predicted in a few days ahead that the Loonie will try to tested level 1,3977. However if on its way to to those levels suddenly corrected down below the level of 1,3554 the Bulls scenario that has been described earlier will become invalid and cancel by itself. (Disclaimer)   Relevance up to 05:00 2023-03-11 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/120877

USD/CAD has printed a fresh four-month high at 1.3774 as the risk-aversion theme has strengthened further. Federal Reserve Powell has confirmed that the risk of persistent inflation is real and a higher terminal rate is expected than prior. Bank of Canada might keep interest rates steady as announced earlier. USD/CAD is running higher with sheer momentum considering the bullish message from indicators and oscillators. USD/CAD has printed a fresh four-month high at 1.3774 in the Asian session. The Loonie asset witnessed a stellar buying interest after extremely hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday. The major has continued its upside journey as the impact of Federal Reserve Powell’s hawkish remarks has not been fully discounted yet. S&P500 futures have retreated after an extremely weak recovery in the Asian session, portraying a healthy risk-off mood as the recovery movement has been capitalized by the market participants for making fresh shorts. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has refreshed its three-month high above 105.80 and is gathering strength for making more gains. A confirmation of bigger rates from Federal Reserve’s Powell has resulted in more fuel for US Treasury yields. The return on 10-year US Treasury bonds has recaptured the 4.0%. Rising US yields might result in a heavy sell-off in growth and tech stocks as their future cash flows will be discounted at a higher rate. Fed Powell endorses a higher terminal rate than previously anticipated The street is aware of the United States' persistent inflation and the need of bringing it down quickly to comfort households from rising payouts. The US inflation was declining at a higher rate than anticipation till December. However, January’s above-targeted inflation figures, resilience in consumer spending, and surprising heavy addition of payrolls in the labor market have renewed fears of stubborn inflation. This forced Fed’s Powell to sound extremely hawkish for interest rate guidance. Fed’s Powell in his testimony before Congress cited “ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” after the “latest economic data have come in stronger than expected.” US Employment to provide more clarity on interest rate guidance This week, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller cited February’s strong economic indicators as a one-time blip and the price pressures will resume their downtrend from next month. Contrary to that, Federal Reserve’s Powell was extremely harsh on interest rate guidance. For clarity, investors are keenly awaiting the release of the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data, which is seen at 200K, higher than the former release of 106K. An upbeat US ADP Employment data will bolster the case of a bigger rate hike by the Fed in its March monetary policy meeting. As per the CME FedWatch tool, the chances of 50 basis points (bps) rate hike have reached 72%. Bank of Canada to keep monetary policy steady The Canadian Dollar is expected to deliver power-pack volatility as the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce the interest rate decision ahead. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has already announced a pause in the policy tightening spell as the central bank believes that the current monetary policy is restrictive enough to tame Canada’s sticky inflation. An unchanged monetary policy by the Bank of Canada and rising chances of bigger rates from the Federal Reserve will lead to a divergence in the Fed-BoC policy. USD/CAD technical outlook USD/CAD has come out of the previous seven-day consolidation and has also delivered a breakout of the Descending Triangle chart pattern on the daily scale. The downward-sloping trendline of the chart pattern is plotted from October 13 high at 1.3978 while the horizontal support is placed from November 15 low at 1.3226. Advancing 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3634 indicates that the upside momentum is extremely powerful. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating that the bullish momentum is already active.

Investors got a double shot of hawkishness from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the US Senate yesterday. Powell Powell’s comments sent the rate hike expectations significantly up and wreaked havoc across the US treasury and equity markets and the US dollar. Data Moving forward, the next few data points will be VERY important in cementing the expectation of a 50bp hike at the March 21-22 FOMC meeting. Today, the ADP report and job openings data. JOLTS data would better soften this month, after last month’s booming figure of 11 mio.On Friday, February jobs report will be released. We’d better see an easing here as well after last month’s blowout half-a-million NFP read. Finally, the latest CPI update is due next Tuesday. And again, it’d better head sufficiently lower after last month’s disinflation disillusion. Fed If the fresh data doesn’t go where the Fed wants to see them, bigger rate hikes will be on the menu, and hope of soft-landing and easy disinflation could fade away. USD And with all the hawks in the air, the US dollar went straight up yesterday and there is no reason to bet on a softer US dollar for the next couple of days. The dollar will likely consolidate and extend gains against most majors. Bank of Canada Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to keep the rates unchanged at today’s monetary policy meeting. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:35 Powell the Hawk 4:07 Data Watch 5:48 FX update: USD up, EUR, AUD down 8:31 BoC to do nothing Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #Powell #testimony #inflation #jobs #economic #data #BoC #RBA #rate #decision #USD #AUD #EUR #CAD #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Making the case for international value investing—thoughts from Templeton Global Equity Group on why now’s the time to consider expanding one’s investment horizons. It seems to be common sense that if you are going to search for these unusually good bargains, you wouldn’t just search the United States … why not search everywhere? That’s what we’ve been doing for forty years. We search anywhere in the world. The post-global financial crisis (GFC) dominance of US equities has been completely unprecedented. Significant Underperformance Over a Generation International vs. US Equities: MSCI World ex-US vs. MSCI USARelative Total Returns, US Dollar, Since 1970   Sources: FactSet, MSCI, as of 31 December 2022. The MSCI World Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets countries. The MSCI USA Index is designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-cap segments of the US market. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI.   Across numerous valuation metrics, international equities are near the cheapest relative to US equities they have been in roughly two decades. Material Valuation Discount on a Variety of Measures Relative Valuation: MSCI ACWI ex-US vs. MSCI USA   Sources: FactSet, MSCI, as of 31 December 2022. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed markets countries (excluding the United States) and 24 emerging markets countries. The MSCI USA Index is designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-cap segments of the US market. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results.   There are many reasons why US equities have so dramatically outperformed, but the core explanation has to do with monetary policy. In response to the GFC—and then to the European sovereign debt crisis in 2011, the “taper tantrum” in 2013, “Volmageddon” in 2018, and the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 (to name a few recent episodes)—central bankers flooded the financial system with liquidity by pinning down interest rates and entering bond markets with the equivalent of a blank check. Globally, debt has soared by over US$100 trillion since the GFC. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) led the way in both size and timing, and the subsequent liquidity wave disproportionately buoyed US markets. Growth-oriented businesses in consumer and technology industries that comprise much of the US market capitalization were the main beneficiaries. But that was then. Today, we are experiencing the exact opposite of the conditions that formerly supported US growth stocks. Interest rates are rising to contain generationally high inflation that the years of aforementioned easy money had sparked. Western central banks have gone from providing liquidity to withdrawing liquidity. Economic growth is slowing as COVID-era stimulus programs roll off and companies and consumers alike contend with materially higher costs of capital. And asset bubbles everywhere—from  cryptocurrencies to real estate to profitless tech companies—are quickly deflating. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has prioritized inflation containment as the central bank’s top policy priority, and at a November 2022 press conference, indicated that the Fed still has “some ways to go” to fight inflation. While the pace of interest rate hikes looks to taper off in the quarters to come, Powell’s messaging suggests that rates will remain elevated and policy restrictive for the foreseeable future. As Exhibit 3 shows, this creates an environment that significantly favors international value strategies over the US growth strategies that led the last cycle. That’s not only because of the way that different discount rates impact the valuation of future cash flows (low rates ascribe more value to the longer-dated cash flows associated with growth stocks, while high rates put a premium on the present-day cash flows associated with value stocks). It’s also because higher interest rates make fundamentals more important. Higher Rates Favor International Value Over US Growth   Source: FactSet, MSCI, as of 31 December 2022. The MSCI ACWI ex -USA Value Index captures large- and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall value style characteristics across 22 developed and 24 emerging markets countries. The MSCI USA Growth Index captures large- and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall growth style characteristics in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results.   Increasingly, there will no longer be a free lunch for companies that can’t earn above their cost of capital or service their debt at higher interest rates. The unfashionable discipline of fundamental analysis is again becoming the key framework for successful investors, replacing the paradigms of narrative formation and growth extrapolation that fueled the bull market of the previous cycle. The US dollar: From headwind to tailwind? Not only can US investors buy international stocks at unusually cheap valuations, but they can use a strong currency to do it. While international equity valuations stand near 20-year lows, the US dollar is trading close to a 20-year high. But the dollar—one of the most crowded long trades for the better part of two years—now looks vulnerable. In late 2022, net speculative positioning was near all-time highs, technical indicators showed the dollar to be historically overbought, and the dollar’s premium to its long-term average real effective exchange rate (REER) was at record levels. The US Dollar: From Headwind to Tailwind ICE US Dollar Index (DXY)   Sources: FactSet, as of 31 December 2022. The ICE US Dollar Index futures contract is a leading benchmark for the international value of the US dollar. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results.   So, what could bring down king dollar? Fundamentals, for one. Interest rate differentials, relative economic strength (as measured by indicators like the purchasing manager’s index) and comparative current account positions have all supported the dollar but are now reaching extended levels that we believe are likely to mean revert over time. We have seen the dollar begin to roll over in late 2022/early 2023 and expect there will be more to come. Additional catalysts for a potential dollar decline include: A pause in rate hikes or eventual Fed policy pivot that lowers forward interest-rate expectations Slower growth in the United States Conflict resolution in Europe that supports the euro and reduces US dollar safe-haven demand We have long advocated investors use the strong dollar to buy discounted assets abroad. We believe this remains a good time to build positions, as an eventual downturn in the dollar is typically associated with the strong performance of ex-US assets. Conclusion There is plenty to think about as 2023 begins to unfold. Does recent strength represent a sustainable rebound, or just a bear market rally? When will inflation come down and how high will interest rates go? How will escalating geopolitical conflicts evolve? While we don’t have all the answers, we do believe it is an interesting time to be deploying capital to cheap international markets. WHAT ARE THE RISKS? All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors or general market conditions. Value securities may not increase in price as anticipated or may decline further in value. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability, and political developments. Investments in developing markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with their relatively small size and lesser liquidity. Actively managed strategies could experience losses if the investment manager’s judgment about markets, interest rates or the attractiveness, relative values, liquidity or potential appreciation of particular investments made for a portfolio, proves to be incorrect. There can be no guarantee that an investment manager’s investment techniques or decisions will produce the desired results.

The dollar hit multi-month highs against most other major currencies on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that US interest rates may need to rise even faster and higher than expected to contain stubborn inflation. Powell told lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday that recent economic data from the United States was better than expected, so the pace and size of future hikes may also need to be stepped up, pushing expectations for short-term US interest rates higher. Higher interest rates are good for the dollar as they improve its yield and investors seek safety while global stock markets fall. The dollar also surpassed its 200-day moving average against the yen for the first time this year. The dovish slope from the RBA contrasted with the hawkish Jerome Powell. USD/JPY The yen pair started the day trading above 137.40 and rising towards 137.90. After this increase, the USD/JPY pair began to fall. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair was above 137.40, but has the potential to fall further towards 137.30. On the Japanese front, during the final political meeting with Governor Haruhiko Kuroda this week, the Japanese central bank will maintain a very loose monetary policy. Data on Tuesday showed Japan's real wages fell by the most in nine years in January, as four-decade high inflation erodes Japan's purchasing power. EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair started trading above 1.0545, but quickly started a decline towards 1.0530. After this decline, the EUR/USD pair started rising towards 1.0545 and kept trading in the 1.0540-1.545 range. At the time of writing, papra has dropped to 1.0540 and is now at 1.0537. German data released today showed that retail sales weakened more than expected, while industrial production rose sharply, easily beating forecasts. Moreover, the hawkish tone of Powell's comments also seems to have an impact on expectations of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB). According to Reuters, markets see a 65% probability that the ECB's final interest rate will be 4.25% this year, compared to a 4.00% final interest rate last week alone. The ECB's hawkish bets could help the euro limit losses in the short term. GBP/USD The cable pair started trading above 1.1825 but similarly to the euro then fell. After falling to the level of 1.1810, the GBP/USD pair rebounded and rose towards 1.1840. After breaking above 1.1845, the pound pair fell back towards 1.1830. The pound reacted negatively to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's more aggressive guidance during yesterday's appearance before the Senate Banking Committee. UK OIS markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis point (BoE) rate hike for the first time since February 27. While BoE expectations are hawkish, the policy divergence is more pronounced than ever with CME Group's FedWatch tool pointing to a 75% probability of a 50 bp rate hike at the next Fed meeting. AUD/USD The movement of the Australian pair is similar to that of the pound-euro pair. After falling to the level of 0.6570, the AUD/USD pair broke again and broke above 0.66, but did not hold and fell to the level of 0.6698. The Australian dollar fell to a four-month low on Wednesday as diverging interest rate expectations between the US and Australia sent local yields to their biggest discount to government bonds in nearly four decades. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

The Canadian dollar has steadied on Wednesday, after sliding 1% a day earlier. Later today, the Bank of Canada meets for its monthly meeting. BoC likely to pause The Bank of Canada is widely expected to take a pause at today’s meeting and maintain the cash rate at 4.50%. This would mark the first pause in rate hikes since the current tightening cycle began in January 2022. The BoC has raised rates by 425 basis points during this time and the tightening has had a dampening effect on the economy – GDP in Q4 flattened out and inflation has fallen under 6%. There is a possibility that the BoC will continue to hold rates, but that will depend on the data, particularly inflation and employment. The shift in policy is bearish for the Canadian dollar, especially with the Federal Reserve expected to continue raising rates. Currently, there is only a 25-bp differential in rates between the US and Canada, but if the Fed keeps raising and the BoC stays on the sidelines, the divergence in rates will weigh on the Canadian dollar, which has plunged some 3% since its February high. It’s a very different story south of the border, where the US economy is churning out strong numbers and the disinflation process appears to be on hold. In his testimony on Capitol Hill, Fed Chair Powell noted that the latest (January) data was stronger than expected and signalled that the Fed would respond with higher rates than it had previously anticipated. Although the January numbers may have been a blip, the markets are marching to the Fed’s tune and have now priced in a 50-bp hike at the March 22 meeting at 75%, up from 25% prior to Powell’s testimony, according to the CME Group.   USD/CAD Technical 1.3701 and 1.3784 are the next resistance lines 1.3571 is a weak support line, followed by 1.3478 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

As widely expected, the Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged at 4.5% today. The Bank observed that restrictive monetary policy is already showing its effect on the Canadian economy, and sees a path for a return to 3% inflation by mid-2023. The option for a new hike is open, but we doubt that will be necessary, and the next move should be a cut Bank of Canada building in Ottawa A stark contrast to the Fed communication The contrast between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the renewed hawkishness at the Federal Reserve is increasingly stark. Today, BoC confirmed that rates most likely peaked in January with “restrictive monetary policy” weighing on household spending and investment. While BoC acknowledges that the labour market “remains very tight”, it doesn't have the same fears as the Federal Reserve that this will keep inflation pressures elevated. Indeed, BoC argues that “weak economic growth for the next couple of quarters” and increasing “competitive pressures” will bear down on inflation and allow it to “come down to around 3% in the middle of this year”. Consequently, it repeated the line that should economic conditions evolve broadly in line with expectations, then it will continue to hold the policy rate “at its current level”, but reserved the right to “increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target”. We don’t think the central bank will need to. Canada’s high household debt levels and greater exposure to interest rates rate hikes via a higher prevalence of variable rate borrowing make the economy more at risk of a deeper downturn than the US. For example, in the US the 30Y fixed rate mortgage is the most common borrowing method while in Canada it is five years or less before it faces a change in interest rate. As such, the next move is more likely to be an interest cut in our view Markets scale back tightening bets The Canadian dollar traded marginally on the soft side after the BoC announcement, probably as some investors were expecting some stronger concerns about potentially stickier inflation like in the US. The conviction call on the deflationary path (inflation at 3% by mid-2023) clearly suggests there is no real discussion about a resumption of monetary tightening at the moment. We are observing some unwinding of tightening bets at the time of writing. The CAD 2Y swap rate is trading around 10bp lower than pre-announcement, and the OIS curve is no longer pricing in a 25bp rate hike at the July meeting. This is no game changer for our medium-term (bearish) view on USD/CAD, which was not based on a hawkish surprise or additional tightening by BoC. However, it may trigger a bit more loonie underperformance in the near term. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

USD/CAD continues scaling higher on Friday and touches its highest level since October. Bearish crude Oil prices undermine the Loonie and remain supportive of the momentum. The risk-off mood benefits the USD’s relative safe-haven status and acts as a tailwind. Traders now look to the monthly jobs data from Canada and the US for a fresh impetus. The USD/CAD pair adds to its strong weekly gains and climbs to its highest level since October 17, 2022, around the 1.3860 area during the first half of the European session on Friday. The selling pressure around Crude Oil prices remains unabated for the fourth straight day, which undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. In fact, the black liquid remains on track to register its worst fall since early February amid worries that slowing global economic growth will dent fuel demand. Apart from this, the fact that the Bank of Canada (BoC) became the first major central bank to pause its rate-hiking cycle on Wednesday is seen as another factor weighing on the Canadian Dollar. The aforementioned factors, to a larger extent, helps offset a modest US Dollar weakness and continue to push the USD/CAD pair higher. Data released on Thursday showed a larger-than-expected rise in the US Weekly Jobless Claims, which was seen as the first sign of a softening labor market. This, in turn, forced investors to re-evaluate the possibility of a  50 bps lift-off at the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 21-22, leading to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields and exerting some follow-through pressure on the Greenback. That said, the prevalent risk-off environment - amid looming recession risks - helps limit losses for the safe-haven buck, at least for the time being. The market sentiment remains fragile in the wake of worries about economic headwinds stemming from rising borrowing costs, which is reinforced by a further deepening of the yield curve. Adding to this, the incoming softer Chinese macro data dashed hopes for a strong recovery in the world's second-largest economy. This, in turn, tempers investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets. The USD/CAD bulls, meanwhile, might prefer to take a breather amid a slightly overbought Relative Strength Index (RSO) on the daily chart and ahead of the closely-watched US monthly employment details. The popularly known NFP report is more likely to overshadow the Canadian jobs data and play a key role in influencing the pair's near-term trajectory. The focus will then shift to the latest US consumer inflation figures, due for release next Tuesday.

The Canadian dollar continues to sag and has dropped 1.9% this week. Hold onto your hats, as we could have some further volatility from USD/CAD in the North American session, with the release of the US and Canadian employment reports. All eyes on NFP The highlight of the day is the US nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to head back to earth after a blowout gain of 517,000 in January. The consensus for February stands at 205,000 and a wide miss of this figure on either side will likely shake up the US dollar.  A weak reading would fuel speculation of a Fed pivot and likely weigh on the US dollar, while a strong figure would support the Fed’s hawkish stance and should be bullish for the greenback. The ADP payroll report, which precedes the nonfarm payroll release, improved to 242,000, up from an upwardly revised 119,000 and above the estimate of 200,000. The ADP reading is not considered all that reliable at forecasting the nonfarm payrolls report so I wouldn’t read too much into it. Still, the US labour market remains strong despite the Fed’s tightening, and I would not be surprised to see nonfarm payrolls follow the ADP’s lead and beat the estimate. In addition to nonfarm payrolls, the Fed will also be keeping a close eye on wage growth. Average hourly earnings is expected to rise to 4.7% y/y in February, up from 4.4% y/y in January. The Fed is focussed on lowering inflation and an acceleration in wage growth could prompt the Fed to be more aggressive with its pace of rate increases. Canada also recorded a sharp gain in new jobs in January, with a reading of 150,000, up from 104,000 prior. The markets are braced for a small gain of 10,000 in February, and a soft print of 5,000 or lower would likely weigh on the Canadian dollar. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 5.1%, up from 5.0%.   USD/CAD Technical There is support at 1.3787 and 1.3660 1.3927 and 1.4190 are the next resistance lines This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.  

As it becomes increasingly clear to financial markets that inflation is proving far stickier than most had felt at the start of the year, our Global Head of Markets Chris Turner says a return to the disinflation and weaker dollar narrative will have to wait   FX Talking: Dollar bear trend takes a rain check What can be expected for FX over the month ahead? The main focus in the G10 space will be on US activity data and upcoming major central bank meetings, while continued strength for the US dollar and key local stories also remain in the spotlight. Find all the latest details from our team here: FX Talking: Dollar bear trend takes a rain check   Read this article on THINK TagsUS FX Asia Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

US stocks settled lower in a volatile session as traders digested a cooling wage/ robust job growth report and SVB contagion risks. This was supposed to be an easy Friday with one massive jobs report, but SVB, a large bank with exposure across a range of sectors failed and triggered distress for several other smaller banks.  At the end of the day, traders are seeing this cooling/hot payroll report as confirmation that Fed policy is restrictive and that the their tightening work is almost done.  If we didn’t have SVB’s failure and contagion risk the case for a half-point rate hike would be valid. The focus will fall on SVB contagion risks and Tuesday’s inflation report.  As long as we don’t see a scorching hot inflation report, the Fed should continue with its quarter rate point hiking pace.   US data The US economy added 311, 000 jobs in February, more than both the consensus estimate of 225,000 and the whisper number of 250,000.  The NFP report had a strong headline beat, but the rest of the report supported the idea that the labor market is ready to cool.  Wage pressures came in much softer than forecasts and the unemployment rate rose from 3.4% to 3.6%.  Fed rate hike odds went on a rollercoaster ride post NFP as traders now have the March 22nd meeting as a coin flip between a 25bp rise or half-point increase and are also pricing in a rate cut by the end of the year.  The peak is in place and it seems traders got a preview about how this tightening cycle will start to drag down economic growth.  SVB SVB Financial Capital’s demise is bad news for many small tech companies as they were a go-to lender in silicon valley.  After Venture Capitalists decided to pull their money, SVB ended up losing ~$2 billion from selling securities as they rushed to secure funds, which is what triggered this bank run.     Startups and debt refinancing are some of the biggest financial risks that traders are analyzing, but this pressure on small banks appears it should remain contained and not weigh on the big banks. The KBW bank index had its worst drop since early in the pandemic and the contagion fears dragged down Comerica, Keycorp, and US Bancorp.  Signature Bank Investors are skeptical to hold anything crypto related in this market environment.  Banks vulnerable to financial instability risk and crypto exposure are easy targets and that has some traders eyeing Signature Bank. There are not a lot of publicly trade banks with significant crypto exposure, so the ones that have some are seeing selling pressure.  Oil Crude prices are rallying after a mixed jobs report sent the dollar lower as optimism grew that the Fed won’t have to be as aggressive with the end of its rate hiking campaign. Oil is quietly rallying as parts of Wall Street enter panic mode following small banking contagion risks.  It appears that parts of the economy are breaking and that is good news for bets that the Fed won’t have to accelerate their tightening pace.   Gold Gold is surging as Fed rate hike bets get scaled down and as SVB contagion risks trigger some safe-haven buying. The bond market is now starting to price in rate cuts by the end of the year and that is triggering a major collapse with yields.  The two-year yield posted its biggest two day decline since 2008.  Gold is becoming everyone’s favorite trade again and that could continue as liquidity risk concerns won’t be quickly answered for that corner on Wall Street.    Bitcoin All the headlines just turned bearish for Bitcoin.  The list of bearish crypto drivers are plentiful: Fallout from SVB as many crypto companies depend on small banks, mining might be harder if the White House pushes through a new 30% tax, NY crypto crackdown now covers KuCoin and after Huobi token’s flash crash.  Bitcoin was in a comfortable trading range and that just broke, which has many investors nervous that we could see a retest of the October lows. Bitcoin fell below the $20,000 level and has many traders nervous over what might happen over the weekend.  Crypto volatility appears to be back as Bitcoin’s range has been breached.  The $18,400 level is key support, but if that breaks momentum selling could look to target a retest of the October lows.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.  

On the 4-hour chart #USDX you can see the emergence of a Bearish 123 pattern followed by the appearance of several Bearish Ross Hook (RH) and price movements that move below the EMA 10 so it is clear that in the near future USDX will try to test and break below the 103.50 level if This level is successfully broken down, so the next level to aim for is the 102.56 level. However, if on its way to the target levels described earlier, #USDX suddenly experiences a significant upward correction movement to break above the 105.24 level, then a decline scenario is certain. that was just described will be invalid and automatically cancel by itself. (Disclaimer)   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-03-14 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/121113

USD/CAD takes offers to extend pullback from five-month high. US regulators unveil plans to tame SVB, Signature Bank inflicted risk. Fed rate hike expectations ease amid looming fears on US banks. Oil price cheers softer US Dollar with eyes on EIA, OPEC monthly reports. USD/CAD stands on slippery grounds, declining nearly 0.80% intraday to 1.3720 heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair sellers cheer the broad US Dollar weakness, as well as the recent recovery in prices of Crude Oil, Canada’s key export item. US Dollar Index (DXY) drops to the lowest levels in a month, down 0.80% near 103.80, as risk-on mood joins easing hawkish Fed bets to drown the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies. On the other hand, WTI crude oil rises for the second consecutive day, up 0.50% intraday near $77.00 at the latest. After witnessing the stock and bond market rout on Friday, the market sentiment improved as the US Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took joint actions to tame the risks emanating from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank during the weekend.  “All depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank will be fully protected,” said the authorities in a statement released afterward. While reacting to the US regulators’ actions, US President Joe Biden said, “American people and American businesses can have confidence that their bank deposits will be there when they need them.” It should be noted, however, that the latest fallout of the SVB and Signature Bank flagged fragile conditions of the US bank, which in turn pushed back hopes of more rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). With this in mind, Goldman Sachs expects to rate hike in March while the Fed Fund Futures also cut previously upbeat odds favoring a 0.50% rate lift in the Fed rate in March. Alternatively, China’s dislike for the US interference in Taiwan matters and the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) join the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) dovish play to weigh on the Loonie prices. On Friday, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) grew more than 205K expected to 311K in February, versus 504K (revised), while the Unemployment Rate rose to 3.6% for the said month compared to 3.4% expected and prior. Further, the Average Hourly Earnings rose on YoY but eased on monthly basis for February whereas the Labor Force Participation increased during the stated month. At home, Canada’s Net Change in Employment rose to 21.8K versus 10K market forecasts and 150K prior while the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.0% compared to 5.1% expected. Looking ahead, Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February to direct immediate market moves. Following that, the Retail Sales and preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March, up for publishing on Wednesday and Friday, will be crucial for clear directions of the USD/CAD traders. Technical analysis Friday’s Doji at multi-day high joins overbought RSI to favor USD/CAD pullback towards the late 2022 peak surrounding the 1.3700 round figure.

The dollar fell on Monday on heightened expectations the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive with monetary policy as authorities stepped in to limit the fallout from the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The U.S. government announced several measures early in the Asian trading day, saying all SVB customers will have access to their deposits starting on Monday. Tomorrow’s US CPI report will make things interesting should inflation come in higher than expected, making the Fed’s task that much harder. USD/JPY The yen pair started the new week at the level of 134.8590 and in the first trading hours it was in the range of 134.25-134.75. USD/JPY then started a dip towards 133.75 but rebounded back to near 134.75. In the European session, USD/JPY fell again, but this time towards 133.00. At the time of writing, the yen pair is trading around 133.40. Concerns about the imposition of a global economic action continue to weigh on investor sentiment, which in turn favors a safe haven for the Japanese yen (JPY) and puts some downward pressure on the major currency. Both added further fueled by recent Chinese volume data, which appear to have left domestic demand weak and lowered on a strong recovery in the world's second-largest economy. However, any significant pullback in USD/JPY still seems elusive amid expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will remain dovish to support a fragile domestic economy. In fact, the new BoJ governor, Kazuo Ueda, recently stressed the need to maintain ultra-loose policy settings and said the central bank is not aiming for a quick turnaround from a decade of massive easing. Bets were further raised after the release of the final GDP printout, which showed Japan's economy narrowly avoided a technical recession in the final months of 2022. EUR/USD The euro pair started the day at 1.0686, but started falling. After the decline, the EUR/USD pair gained momentum and exceeded 1.07. In the following hours, the EUR/USD pair traded in the 1.0720-1.0730 range. In the European session, the euro fell again below 1.07 and at the time of writing trades above 1.0670. EURUSD rose overnight to a new monthly high of 1.0737 as the USD sell-off continued. At the European open, EURUSD pulled back slightly, flirting again with 1.0700 as markets scrutinize the SVB news and emergency measures taken by the US authorities to ensure confidence in the banking sector. Regulators have confirmed that the Bank's customers will have access to their deposits on Monday, while launching a new facility to give banks access to emergency funds.  EURUSD continues to look more favorable going forward as market participants dropped expectations for a 50bps hike by the Federal Reserve at its March meeting on Friday. This is in contrast to the European Central Bank (ECB), whose interest rate decision will be taken on Thursday, with consensus and market participants favoring a 50 basis point hike. GBP/USD GBP/USD started the day at 1.2077 and the first moves were similar to the euro. In the Asian session, the pair of the cable crossed the level of 1.2125, but did not maintain momentum and started a downtrend that is still ongoing. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is below 1.2075. AUD/USD The movement of the Australian pair is like the euro. AUD/USD started trading at 0.6633 and then fell towards 0.6600. After the decline, the Aussie pair rose and for the next hours of trading in the Asian session it was in the range of 0.6660-0.6670. In the European session, the AUD/USD pair started a downward move towards 0.6610. At the time of writing, the trading level of the Aussie pair was below 0.6620. The Australian dollar gained support on Monday morning after continued concerns over the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. The result was a dovish overestimation of Fed interest rates. Money markets have drastically reduced the potential for a 50bps towards a 25bps increment. Source: finanace.yahoo.com, investing.com

USD/CAD is facing hurdles in stretching its recovery above 1.3740, volatility is expected ahead of US Inflation. Federal Reserve could continue a smaller rate-hike regime to avoid the United States recession. Bank of Canada may be required to resume its policy-tightening process to tame inflation recovery. USD/CAD might display a downside momentum if RSI (14) skids into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00. The USD/CAD pair is facing barricades while extending its recovery above the immediate resistance of 1.3740 in the early European session. A sideways performance is expected from the Loonie asset till the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Earlier, the asset rebounded after a five-day low of 1.3677 as investors got anxious ahead of the US inflation release and improved appeal for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is displaying a back-and-forth action below 104.00. It seems that the USD Index is gathering strength to stretch its recovery as the release of the US Inflation will prepare the ground for the interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is scheduled for next week. S&P500 futures are attempting to hold gains generated in the Asian session. However, the risk appetite is still weak as global stocks are facing the heat of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVG) collapse. The return delivered on 10-year US Treasury bonds has rebounded to near 3.57% on hopes that US inflation data could fuel safe-haven's appeal. Upside risk for US inflation looks favored The major catalyst of the week- US inflation, will release on Tuesday and is expected to deliver a power-pack action in the FX domain. Considering the resilience in the overall demand, strong employment bills, and upbeat strong labor market, an acceleration in the US inflationary pressures cannot be ruled out. Last week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a significant jump in the number of payrolls generated by the US economy in February than anticipated. The Unemployment Rate increased to 3.6%. And, Average Hourly Earnings were increased to 4.6%, lower than the consensus of 4.7%. Despite an increase in the jobless rate, the US labor market looks upbeat as firms are continuously escalating their recruitment process to add more people. And, employment bills are still in a rising trend, which indicates that households are equipped with sufficient funds to trigger inflation again. Analysts at Wells Fargo expect “Another monthly increase of 0.4% in the overall CPI in February, which would put the annual rate at 6.0%. We still see inflation set to grind lower, but the process is likely to be bumpy and take time. Despite some directional improvement over the past couple of quarters, prices are still growing well above the Fed's 2% target, and the tight labor market suggests that there are still inflationary pressures that could forestall a full return to 2% inflation.” Upbeat labor market to compel Bank of Canada to rollback rate-hiking process The Bank of Canada (BoC) has already confirmed that the current monetary policy is restrictive enough to contain Canadian inflation. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem decided to allow the current monetary policy to display its potential and has therefore kept monetary policy steady in March. However, a surprise increase in the Employment numbers and higher employment cost index indicate that inflation could be propelled again. Along with an unchanged monetary policy, Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem kept the room open for more rates if inflation surprises to the upside. Meanwhile, oil prices have witnessed a sell-off as the street is worried about the overall demand ahead. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the US and lower oil prices would impact the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD technical outlook USD/CAD has delivered a sheer downside move after a breakdown of the Head and Shoulder chart pattern formed on a two-hour scale. The asset rebounded but has now found barricades near the horizontal resistance plotted from March 08 low at 1.3745. The US Dollar bulls are expected to find a cushion near support placed from March 01 high at 1.3659. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3745 is expected to act as a major resistance for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00 range. A breakdown into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 will trigger the downside momentum.

The British pound has reversed directions after an impressive rally that saw GBP/USD climb 370 points. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2154, down 0.24%. US dollar recovers The collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on Friday sent the financial markets into turmoil on Monday. US bank stocks declined sharply, while safe-haven gold powered higher. The US dollar retreated against the major currencies and the 2-year Treasury yield fell almost a full point. Tuesday has brought better news, as the markets appear to have settled down. The US dollar has regrouped and is higher against the majors. There is an uneasy calm in the air, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that this latest crisis is behind us. Investors are on alert and will be very sensitive to new developments and any negative news could renew market volatility. The Fed and Treasury Department acted quickly to protect depositors and President Biden sent a reassuring message at an impromptu television address, but the collapse of the 16th largest lender in the US means it’s unlikely to be “business as usual” for some time. It was just a week ago that Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish testimony on the Hill raised expectations of the Fed delivering a 50-bp increase at the March 22 meeting. Those expectations have vanished into smoke, with the markets now expecting a 25-bp hike, with an outside chance of a pause.  We could see further market repricing after today’s CPI report, with headline CPI expected to fall to 6.0%, down from 6.4%. In the UK, the employment report was within expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, shy of the estimate of 3.8%. Hourly earnings fell to 5.7%, as expected, down from an upwardly revised 6%. The pound hasn’t reacted to the release and the data is unlikely to change minds at the Bank of England, which is expected to raise rates by 25 bp at the March 23 meeting.   GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2113 earlier in the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.2294 There is support at 1.1984 and 1.1854 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.