upper boundary

The previous trading week became one of the most volatile in the past month. Bitcoin made a bullish breakout beyond the range of $26.6k–$27.5k, but later experienced a price retracement to familiar levels. The previous week ended with another attempt by the asset to break the upper boundary of the $26.6k–$27.5k range.       The price increase occurred against the backdrop of synergy between Asian and American investors who were opening long positions. Despite consolidated efforts, Bitcoin failed to break through, resulting in a decline in the asset. BTC begins the new trading week with a retest of the lower boundary of the channel at $26.6k.     Fundamental background The attempt to achieve a bullish breakthrough at the $27.5k level can also be attributed to positive macroeconomic statistics. It is reported that the unemployment rate in the United States reached 3.7% against expectations of 3.5%. This is an indirect consequence of the Federal Reserve's policy of raising key rates and withdrawing liquidity from the global economy.     BBG reports that macro data have instilled optimism in investors regarding the Federal Reserve's policy.   The majority on the CME expects a pause in key rate hikes in June, which could have a positive impact on liquidity. The resolution of the situation with the national debt can also instill confidence in the crypto and other markets.       It is reported that an agreement to increase the debt ceiling is already awaiting the signature of the U.S. President. Once the agreement comes into effect, the U.S. Treasury will receive a stimulus of about $4 trillion. Considering that USDT market capitalization has reached an all-time high, June could become a month of bullish movement.   BTC investors continue to accumulate A classic pause in active BTC trading is accompanied by massive accumulation, which is a bullish signal. Over the past three weeks, BTC daily trading volumes have not exceeded $20 billion, and the number of unique addresses fluctuates around 700k-800k. These figures are insufficient for significant price movements, and thus BTC remains within the $26.6k–$27.5k range.     Meanwhile, almost all categories of investors are accumulating BTC volumes en masse, creating a strong foothold for further price increases. It is reported that BTC miners accumulated cryptocurrencies worth $540 million in the last week. Glassnode reports that "whales" continue to aggressively increase their Bitcoin holdings.     It is important to note that cryptocurrency trading started on the Hong Kong Exchange last week, which can lead to even more rapid accumulation and increased liquidity. Taking into account on-chain metrics and fundamental factors, it can be concluded that BTC will resume its upward movement in the near future.   BTC/USD Analysis Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has retested the upper boundary of the $26.6k–$27.5k channel. Due to increased selling pressure and successful defense of the $27.5k level, the cryptocurrency's price started a sharp decline and reached the lower boundary of the channel at $26.6k. Bulls need to maintain the price within the current range to stabilize the situation.       Technical metrics on the daily chart indicate a continuation of the downward price movement. The stochastic oscillator is still in a bearish crossover, and the RSI has broken below the 45 level. There is some activation of buyers; however, the current volume is insufficient to protect the level.     On the 4-hour timeframe, the main technical metrics have started to turn upwards. However, bears still have the advantage, and there is a possibility of further decline towards the $26.4k–$26.5k zone. That area is where the second order block is located, which sellers need to surpass to reach $25.5k.   Conclusion Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the range of $26.6k-$27.5k with active accumulation. If the current dynamics are maintained, there is a high probability of the resumption of an upward movement for Bitcoin. As for short-term targets, buyers need to hold the $26.5k level to achieve the potential bullish scenario.  

Higher timeframes Bullish players completed the correction and updated the high, continuing the upward movement. In doing so, they entered and closed the previous day above the daily cloud. If there is consolidation in the bullish zone relative to the daily cloud, and the upward movement continues, the daily target for a cloud breakout can be added to the bullish targets.     In the meantime, the immediate target is to update the high (1.1096) and the recovery of the weekly upward trend. The upper boundary of the daily cloud (1.0970), the monthly medium-term trend (1.0901), and the area of 1.0862-69, which combines daily and weekly levels, serve as support in the current conditions.  

EUR/USD Higher timeframes     The bears once again managed to neutralize all the opponent's efforts, returning to the support and attraction zone of the monthly medium-term trend (1.0901) and the upper boundary of the daily cloud (1.0882). If the bulls fail to continue the upward move and establish a new high (1.1012) in the near future, the opposing side will set more global targets. The immediate bearish plans will include breaking the weekly supports (1.0862-66), exiting the daily cloud into bearish territory (1.0806), and eliminating the daily golden cross of the Ichimoku (1.0780), which is reinforced by the weekly medium-term trend (1.0789).      

Oil continues higher despite setbacks this week Could we finally be about to see a breakout in oil prices after two months of consolidation? The rally over the last week or so from the range lows has been quite strong and backed by momentum – as well as fresh cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia – and despite being pushed back from the recent highs over the last couple of days, it’s continued to drive higher in a way that could see the upper boundary buckle. Yesterday’s ADP number appeared to wipe out any momentum that had built up but a rally late in the day saw it end the session in the green and come within a whisker of 21 June peak. A failure to overcome that could further confirm the continuation of the gradual consolidation we’ve seen over the last couple of months, whereas a break above could be a very bullish signal.   Can gold hold onto $1,900 after the US jobs report? Gold came under pressure in the aftermath of yesterday’s ADP report but managed to hold above $1,900 and even recoup some of its losses. It’s trading marginally higher today but whether it will be able to hold onto those gains, and remain above $1,900, will probably depend on what kind of jobs report we get. Can it cling on if we get another red-hot report? Another strong report is looking increasingly likely on the back of yesterday’s ADP number, although as we’ve seen in the past it isn’t always that reliable a barometer. A cooler report could propel it higher given expectations have now undoubtedly risen. It’s still almost 8% from its highs and a cooler report could offer the opportunity for a corrective move which we’ve barely seen so far.  

GBP/USD Pound declined slightly on Monday, which kept the Marlin oscillator in a downward direction. However, it seems to be preparing to overcome the balance indicator line (in red) this morning, most likely aiming to advance towards the first target at 1.2720.     If the price manages to consolidate below this level, it will break through the MACD line (in blue) and move towards the June 29 low at 1.2590.   On the four-hour chart, the pair trades below the lower boundary of the range (1.2839) and the balance indicator line, shifting the short-term trend towards selling. The Marlin oscillator also moved into negative territory, indicating a bearish trend. In the event of an unexpected breakout above the upper boundary of the range (1.2903), the price increase could be stopped by the MACD line (1.2937)  

  The GBP/USD currency pair exhibited no noteworthy movements on Friday. The price continues to correct both in the global and local senses. After a double rebound from the level of 1.2634, the pair is aiming for the upper boundary of the sideways channel, i.e., the level of 1.2787. This level has already been reached, so a new round of downward movement within the same channel may begin soon. Since we are currently in a range, trading the pair is inconvenient and inadvisable. While we mentioned that it's better to trade the euro on higher timeframes, in the case of the pound, trading on higher timeframes is not profitable since the pair is not showing any trend movement. Overall, the situation could be more pleasant. A consolidation above the level of 1.2787 could trigger a continuation of the upward correction, which will not break the established concept. Let us remind you that the concept involves a prolonged decline in the British currency. Corrections are integral to any trend, so a slight upward move would not hurt. However, there is still a risk of resuming an illogical and unjustified upward trend that was difficult to explain several months ago. On the 24-hour timeframe, we still do not see a breakthrough of the Ichimoku cloud, so even after the last month's decline, the upward trend has not changed to a downward one. There was virtually no macroeconomic data on Friday, and there will be none today. Volatility for the pound did not exceed 100 points last week, and any value below this level is considered "average." The pound is certainly moving more actively than the euro (which is historically the case), but the range spoils everything.   ECB rhetoric is more important than the Fed This week, there will be even fewer significant events than last week. What can we highlight? Business activity indices? The Jackson Hole symposium, which only starts on Friday? A few speeches by Fed representatives? The U.S. durable goods orders report? All of these are interesting, but what matters is the market's reaction to them. All business activity indices and the durable goods orders report could only provoke a reaction if the actual values differ significantly from the forecasts. Fed representatives' speeches – we observe quite a few of these almost every week. The Fed's policy is currently clear and understood, and it is unlikely that Bowman or Gulsbee will report anything extremely important.   The market does not believe in a rate hike in September or the end of the tightening cycle. A few months ago, Jerome Powell indicated that the regulator was shifting to a "one hike every two meetings" approach, so there should be a pause in September. However, the latest inflation report, showing an acceleration in inflation, suggests we may see at least one more rate hike. And if the August report also shows an acceleration, tightening may occur as early as September. More questions are now being posed to the ECB, for which a brief pause is also expected. If signals start coming from the ECB about even slower tightening, it may be a reason for the European currency to accelerate its decline against the dollar.     The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 84 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Therefore, on Monday, August 21, we expect movement within the range limited by levels 1.2646 and 1.2816. A downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator will signal a downward spiral within the lateral channel.   The nearest support levels: S1 – 1.2726 S2 – 1.2695 S3 – 1.2665   The nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.2756 R2 – 1.2787 R3 – 1.2817   Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair in the 4-hour timeframe has secured itself above the moving average, but we are still in a flat market overall. You can trade now based on rebounds from the upper (1.2787) or lower (1.2634) boundaries of the sideways channel, but reversals may occur without reaching them. The moving average may be crossed very often, but it does not signify a change in trend.   Explanations of illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in one direction, the trend is strong. Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction to trade now. Murrey levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.