unemployment benefit claims

The GBP/USD currency pair was traded with low volatility on Tuesday but still managed to move upwards, while the euro currency stood still and decreased more than it grew. Thus, even on a completely empty Tuesday, the pound sterling found reasons to start moving north again.   The price has re-fixed above the moving average and is still very close to its local maximums, which also coincide with the annual maximums. The British currency still cannot correct down properly, which is especially visible in the 24-hour timeframe. Occasionally, there are downward corrections on the 4-hour timeframe, but in most cases, they are purely formal.   The logic of the movements needs to be improved. Two weeks ago, when the Bank of England unexpectedly raised the rate by 0.5% for many, the pound did not grow. But yesterday, when it was a holiday in the States, it added about 40-50 points. The British economy is still weak and is holding out with the last of its strength not to slide into a recession.   US GDP exceeds forecasts by 0.7% and shows a value of +2% q/q. The Bank of England's rate continues to rise but is still lower than the Fed's. The British regulator can raise the rate several times but will likely stay within the Fed's rate. All this suggests that even if the dollar doesn't have strong reasons to grow now, it certainly has no reasons to fall. However, in most cases, we continue to observe the pair's growth. Only business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors can be highlighted for the first two days of the week. In the US and UK, the indices fell synchronously for June and have long been below the "waterline" of 50.0. Again, the pound did not have an advantage over the dollar due to macroeconomic statistics.     Thursday and Friday promise to be "stormy"! The week's most important events are concentrated in its last two days. Today, of course, the Fed's minutes will be published. In the European Union and Britain, the second estimates of business activity indices for June will become known, but all these are secondary data. It is unlikely that the Fed's minutes will surprise traders who are already confident in a rate hike in July, as well as after Jerome Powell's five speeches over the past weeks, in which he laid everything out. Therefore, the main movements are planned for Thursday and Friday, when the ISM, ADP, unemployment benefit claims, the number of job openings, NonFarm Payrolls, and the unemployment rate will be released in the US.   As we can see, almost all reports are related to the labor market, which the Fed continues to monitor closely, and which has a priority for the regulator and the market. However, even if the reports are disastrous (which is currently hard to believe), the Fed will not change its plans to raise the rate.   And for the GBP/USD pair, it doesn't matter at all. The pound grows for a reason and without. If statistics from overseas turn out to be weak, it will merely get a new reason to grow against the dollar. If the statistics from the US turn out to be strong, we will see a new pullback down, a maximum of 100 points, and the Fed's position on the rate will not change. Thus, the market's local reaction could be significant.   In the medium term, these reports will not affect the situation in the market. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 94 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "medium." Therefore, on Wednesday, July 5, we expect movement within the range limited by levels 1.2612 and 1.2800. The Heiken Ashi indicator's reversal down signals a possible new downward movement wave.    

  In analyzing the state of the British economy, this week's macroeconomic readings have provided a mixed outlook. With indicators such as wages, GDP, and industrial production under scrutiny, market observers are eager to gain insights into the potential depth of the recession and the Bank of England's (BoE) approach to interest rates.   Examining the released figures, renowned economist Walid Koudmani highlights the various nuances in the current economic landscape. Wages in the UK continue to rise, with average earnings for a 3-month period surpassing expectations at a 6.9% year-on-year (YoY) growth rate, slightly higher than the previous level of 6.7% YoY. However, the number of unemployment benefit claims has seen a significant increase of 25.7k, reversing the prior decline of 22.5k. Additionally, the quarterly change in employment of 102 thousand falls short of the previous level of 250k, although it exceeds expectations set at 85k.     FXMAG.COM: What do this week's macroeconomic readings - wages, GDP, industrial production - tell us about the state of the British economy? Will the recession be deep? Will the BoE continue to raise rates?   Walid Koudmani The macroeconomic readings released this week paint a mixed picture of the British economy. Wages in the UK continue to rise with average earnings for a 3-month period increasing by 6.9% year-on-year (YoY), slightly higher than the expected 6.8% YoY and the previous level of 6.7% YoY.  However, the number of unemployment benefit claims increased by 25.7k, reversing the previous decline of 22.5k. The quarterly change in employment amounted to 102 thousand, surpassing the expected 85k but lower than the previous level of 250k. The rise in wage growth is a concern as it could indicate persistent inflationary pressures to come which could lead to a decline in consumer spending, leading to a negative impact on economic growth.  Overall, the macroeconomic readings released this week do not provide a clear picture of the state of the British economy. However, they do suggest that the economy could be facing some headwinds, such as rising inflation and slowing growth. It is too early to say whether the UK will experience a deep recession, but the BoE is likely to continue raising rates in an effort to combat inflation and expectations for those rates continue to increase. While the Pound has benefited from this news, there could be a noticeable pressure on stocks as the cost of money continues to rise and investors are left with less resources to allocate. In addition to this, there are several other factors which may influence the British economy including the outcome of the war in Ukraine, the pace of global economic growth, and the direction of commodity prices.