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Oil

Crude prices are steadily rising as the EU is making progress towards its Russia oil sanctions ban. The oil market will remain tight going forward now that OPEC+ is set on delivering meager output increases and as US production struggles despite rising rig counts. The biggest uncertainty for the crude demand outlook remains the outlook for the Chinese economy. China won’t be abandoning their zero-COVID policy anytime soon and that will keep the short-term crude demand outlook vulnerable. China’s COVID situation might not be improving anytime soon and now that the data is showing the impact of business restrictions is more widespread than just to Shanghai and Beijing.

Oil will remain a volatile trade going forward with most of the fundamentals still pointing to higher prices.



Gold

Just when gold seems to be showing signs it is getting its luster back, the bond market says ‘not so fast’.  Gold continues to struggle in this current environment of surging global bond yield

Oil jumps on EU ban, gold rises after Fed

Oil jumps on EU ban, gold rises after Fed

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 05.05.2022 15:30
Oil prices leap on EU oil ban Oil prices leapt higher overnight as markets digested the impact of the proposed EU ban on Russian oil imports. Additionally, the OPEC+ JTC is indicating that there will be no change in the monthly schedule of production increases, with some members in fact noting that China’s demand has slumped. Brent crude rose by 4.05% to USD 111.10 overnight, with WTI climbing by 3.90% to USD 107.55 a barrel. ​ In Asia, Brent and WTI have had a muted session, adding just 0.50% each to USD 110.60 and USD 108.10 respectively. In the bigger picture, Brent crude is still in a broader USD 100.00 to USD 120.00 range, and WTI in a USD 95.00 to USD 115.00 range. Only a weekly close above or below those levels signals a new directional move. Overall, we remain in a situation where the Ukraine/Russia conflict and the inability of OPEC+ to even meet their pre-agreed quotas is keeping spot prices tight, while China’s covid-zero-induced slowdown is acting to cap price increases. With the sanction situation on Russia escalating, and with Russian retaliation not out of the question, I believe the risks of the Ukraine conflict becoming more fully priced into energy markets are increasing.   Gold rallies on a weaker US dollar Gold rose sharply overnight as the US dollar plummeted post-FOMC after the Fed hiked by 0.50% as expected, and eased concerns around future 0.75% hikes. Gold rose 0.70% to USD 1881.50 an ounce, before continuing its rally in Asia, gaining an impressive 1.10% to USD 1901.65 today. The move in Asia is unusual, even more so because other asset classes in Asia are not showing a strong continuation of the US dollar sell-off seen overnight, although Asian currencies have rallied modestly in trading today. I suspect the buying is coming out of China as that market had returned from holidays today. From a technical perspective, gold reclaimed the 100-day moving average at USD 1881.00 overnight, which becomes intraday support, followed by USD 1850.00 and USD 1835.00 an ounce. Gold faces resistance at USD 1920.00 and USD 1960.00 an ounce. It is too early to say that gold prices have turned a corner. If the US dollar correction lower continues, then gold can certainly continue rallying. But if the US dollar sell-off runs out of steam, then gold will struggle to maintain gains above USD 1900.00 an ounce.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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Oil trades sideways, gold pares gains

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 06.05.2022 10:13
After initially leaping higher after the proposed EU ban on Russian oil was released, oil markets have spent the past two sessions consolidating those gains. Overnight, oil traded in a wide and choppy range, but ultimately, Brent crude finished just 0.80% higher at USD 110.95, and WTI rose 0.95% to USD 108.55 a barrel. In Asia, both contracts are almost unchanged in pre-weekend trading.   The news that the US will launch tenders to restock 60 million barrels of oil back into its SPR had no impact on prices overnight. Most likely as the tender exercise won’t start until autumn, an eon in these markets. Similarly, the OPEC+ announcement that it would proceed with its pre-planned 430,000 bpd production increase had no impact either. That is because, with OPEC+ compliance at over 160%, there is zero chance of certain members filling that quota anywhere as production challenges impact Nigeria and other African members.   That leaves oil at the mercy of the Ukraine/Russia conflict and the EU oil ban supporting the downside, while China slowdown fears, with some OPEC members noting much-reduced demand from the mainland, acting as a cap on upside price moves. I still believe markets are under-pricing Ukraine/Russia risks, but that story will have to wait for another day it seems.   Brent crude has formed a triple top at USD 114.75 a barrel, which will be a formidable barrier in the near term. Support lies at USD 103.50 a barrel and I am sticking to my broader USD 100.00 to USD 120.00 a barrel wider range for the months ahead for now. WTI has resistance at USD 111.50 with support at USD 100.00 a barrel. Once again, I remain comfortable with a USD 95.00 to USD 115.00 a barrel outlook in the medium term.   Gold is actually holding up quite well Like Grace Jones, gold is a slave to the rhythm, in this case, the rhythm of the US dollar. Gold staged quite an impressive rally in early trading yesterday, but as the US dollar soared, it gave back all those gains to finish 0.23% lower at USD 1877.00 an ounce, where it remains in moribund Asian trading.   Still, given the moves seen in other asset classes, gold is holding up reasonably well. It is steady despite US 10-year yields moving above 3.0% once again, and it is definitely outperforming bitcoin right now. That could be coincident with the return of China from holidays, or that there is more than a little risk-hedging based buying quietly going through the market.   Gold looks set to vacillate around its 100-day moving average, today at USD 1881.65, in a wide but real range of USD 1850.00 to USD 1920.00 an ounce, for the time being. Only failure of the break-out triangle apex at USD 1835.00 swings gold back into bearish territory. That said, gold needs to close above resistance at USD 1920.00, and preferably USD 1960.00 an ounce to get the gold bugs excited again. I see more whipsaw trading ranges in the days ahead.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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Oil, Gold, Bitcoin (BTC) analysis. What could happen in the markets?

Ed Moya Ed Moya 09.05.2022 07:07
Oil Crude prices are steadily rising as the EU is making progress towards its Russia oil sanctions ban. The oil market will remain tight going forward now that OPEC+ is set on delivering meager output increases and as US production struggles despite rising rig counts. The biggest uncertainty for the crude demand outlook remains the outlook for the Chinese economy. China won’t be abandoning their zero-COVID policy anytime soon and that will keep the short-term crude demand outlook vulnerable. China’s COVID situation might not be improving anytime soon and now that the data is showing the impact of business restrictions is more widespread than just to Shanghai and Beijing. Oil will remain a volatile trade going forward with most of the fundamentals still pointing to higher prices. Gold Just when gold seems to be showing signs it is getting its luster back, the bond market says ‘not so fast’.  Gold continues to struggle in this current environment of surging global bond yields and that might last a little while longer as some central banks for the purpose of defeating inflation might be willing to send their respective economies into a recession. Gold’s awful few weeks of trade has seen a collapse of the $1900 level and that should prove to be key resistance now.  If the bond market selloff accelerates and the dollar surges, gold could be vulnerable to a drop towards $1835 and if that does not hold, $1800 might be targeted.   Bitcoin Confidence in crypto markets is waning after Bitcoin tumbled below the $37,000 level following the surge in global bond yields.  If risk appetite does not return, Bitcoin could be vulnerable to a significant drop towards the $30,000 level.  Choppy trading between $35,000 and $40,000 could be where Bitcoin settles if Wall Street does not price in much more tighter monetary policy by the Fed.
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US Close: Another strong employment report, Wages growth slows, Stocks volatile, Oil rallies, Gold steadies

Ed Moya Ed Moya 06.05.2022 23:33
US stocks appear to be on a permanent rollercoaster ride as investors debate continued signs of a strong economy alongside rising rates, which remains a drag on higher valuation companies. For Wall Street to remain fully confident in piling back into stocks, inflation needs to be showing signs it is easing and that is not happening yet. ​ ​   Market conditions look dangerous but some of these discounts are looking very attractive. ​ It seems that the base case is still that the inflation peak is in place and that the Fed will look to signal a gradual tightening path. Unless inflation shocks prove otherwise, the risk-reward ratios for some of the beloved mega-cap tech stocks are looking attractive. ​ It won’t happen immediately, but when the economy starts to show signs of weakness, that will give investors the green light to buy stocks.   Investors just can’t confidently buy stocks as too much uncertainty persists with what will happen with global growth and how far the Fed will take tightening beyond the summer. ​   NFP The US labor market remains strong as broadbased hiring continues. The economy added 428,000 in April, much more than the analysts estimate of 380,000, also matching the slight downward revision in the prior month. Wage pressures might be showing signs of easing as average hourly earnings ticked lower. ​ Still most signs suggest the labor market is tight and that wage pressures are not quite ready to post a meaningful drop. ​ ​ The labor market remains robust and that should keep the Fed’s half-point tightening on cruise control until the Jackson Hole Symposium.   Oil Crude prices just want to head higher as energy traders completely fixate over the looming European sanctions on Russian oil. ​ No one wants to be on the wrong side of a major crude supply disruption headline, so whatever oil price dips that happen will be short-lived. ​ US oil rig counts continue to rise, but that has not led to increased production. ​ The weekly Baker Hughes report showed oil rig counts rose by 5 to 557 rigs. ​   Gold Gold prices are still licking their wounds following the bond market selloff. ​ Eventually investors will need additional safe-havens, so gold might start to attract some flows if the dollar softens as the global bond market selloff extends. The dollar is slightly softer today, but that doesn’t mean it is ready to lose its crown. ​ Gold could still remain vulnerable to further downward pressure if inflation does not show further signs of peaking next. ​   Gold is trending right between the 50- and -200 day simple moving averages but still looks like it isn’t quite ready to rally. ​ Next week will be pivotal for inflation expectations and for Fed speak that could confirm their commitment to tightening by half a point per meeting until the Jackson Hole Symposium. ​   Read on Oanda This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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