tsla stock

Musk and his executives want his Austin-area employees, including those at Boring, electric car maker Tesla Inc. and space and exploration company SpaceX to be able to live in new homes at below-market rents.

Musk’s city

Elon Musk plans to build his own city on part of thousands of acres of newly purchased pasture and farmland outside the Texas capital.

In meetings with landowners and real estate agents, Musk and his company employees described their vision as a kind of utopia in Texas along the Colorado River where his employees could live and work. Musk has been an advocate of affordable housing for workers. In 2018, during a public panel discussion with then-governor Brian Sandoval of Nevada, Musk spoke about building housing for Tesla employees next to the company's massive complex outside Reno.

The planned city is adjacent to the Boring and SpaceX facilities that are currently under construction. The site already features a group of modular homes, a swimming pool, an outdo

Bank of England's Rate Dilemma: A September Hike and the Uncertain Path Ahead

Wall Street tumbled

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 06.05.2022 10:53
Stock markets saw strong declines the day after the Fed decision as investors may have concluded that the Fed will nonetheless fight inflation in a determined manner with the so-called wealth effect at its disposal.   Yesterday's sell-off on Wall Street could have been very impressive, as the indices fell at a rate we haven't seen in two years, mainly due to technology companies. The Dow index lost more than 1,000 points and the Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 5 percent. - Both indexes posted their worst one-day declines since 2020. The S&P 500 Index also fell 3.56 percent, its second-worst day this year. Thursday's session erased Wednesday's strong gains after the Federal Reserve meeting. Technology stocks suffered the most: Tesla (-8.3 percent), Apple (-5.6 percent), Amazon (-7.6 percent), AMD (-5.6 percent) and Microsoft (-4.4 percent), where the outlook for earnings momentum may not be the best for the next few quarters.   The sharp decline in stocks and entire indexes may also be part of the fight against inflation through the so-called wealth effect. Americans, more than half of whom may have exposure to the stock market, may consume less as their savings melt down in the stock market. Thus, this can have a deflationary effect by reducing demand pressures, which appears to be an additional mechanism for fighting inflation. Previously, with the wealth effect, central banks may want to drive current consumption, because it is different to spend income when the value of savings rises rapidly and when it falls rapidly, even though current income is not affected.   Returning to the markets, one also can't help but notice that it wasn't just stocks that were cheapening. Bond and cryptocurrency prices also fell. The yield on 10-year US bonds beat the 3 percent level, and BTC fell below $36,000 at one point. It seems that once again capital was returning to the USD, as its index approached the level of 104 points, the highest since 2002. Nervousness in the markets, therefore, seems to persist, and this will be compounded by today's publication of data from the US labor market at 14:30. It seems that the times when bad data was good for the markets, as they waited for the Fed to help, are over. Now, bad data can be perceived negatively, and good data positively. The consensus is for a reading of 385k. What will be the NFP? That is what we will find out in a few hours and could be the event of the day.   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Romanian GDP Slows Beyond Expectations: Revised Forecast and Economic Outlook

Tough day for retailers and Tesla in the US, and Tencent broadens the rout in Asia | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 19.05.2022 08:15
Summary:  Asian markets joined the overnight selloff in US equities although some reversals were seen subsequently. Risk sentiment saw a mild recovery but the outlook for consumer discretionary remains murky amid rising cost pressures and inventory building. Australia’s unemployment rate dipped to record lows and watch for Japan’s CPI and China’s loan prime rates due on Friday. What’s happening in markets? Wall Street stocks hit new lows as the market anticipates earnings declines and further slowdowns in consumer spending, amid tighter financial conditions. This is what’s dragging tech and consumer spending stocks (ex-reopening stocks) to new lows. The S&P500 fell 4% on Wednesday, eroding most of its recent gains. The Nasdaq fell 4.7%, taking the top 100 stock index to its lowest level since November 2020. We think the market is not yet at capitulation point - further selling is ahead. The extra risk now is that volatility, is causing boutique investment managers to be on the brink of margin collapse, which could add to further selling pressure in markets and stocks that are down heavily. Asian equity markets join the global sell-off. Japan’s Nikkei (NI225.I) was down over 2.5% led by tech such as Tokyo Electron (8035) and consumer discretionary with Fast Retailing (9983) down over 3%. Singapore’s STI index (ES3) also dropped close to 1% on Thursday morning after Singapore Airlines reported earnings with a narrower loss and an upbeat outlook. Hong Kong and mainland China equity markets gapped down but losses narrowed at mid-day.  Following overnight US equity market’s worst sell-off since June 2020, Hang Seng Index (HSI.I) slumped as much as 3.5% in the morning. Tencent’s (00700) over 8% plunge in share price after reporting Q1 results below market expectations dampened sentiment further. Tencent’s Q1 revenues and EPS coming at flat and -23% YoY respectively and both were 4% below consensus estimates. Online games revenues (PC + mobile) declined 2% YoY and online advertising revenue dropped 18% YoY. Investors were also troubled the management’s remarks saying support initiatives from the Chinese Government to the tech industry takes time and will not benefit the Company much in near-term.  By mid-day, Tencent is down 6.6% and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) is down 3%.  Hang Seng Index and CSI300 (00300.I) fell 2% and 0.3% respectively. Tesla (TSLA) shares slide 7%, more selling to come as S&P500 boots it out of ESG Index, at a time when market anticipates earnings growth to fall and costs to rise. S&P explained why it kicked Tesla out of its ESG index saying Tesla’s “lack of a low-carbon strategy” and “codes of business conduct,” along with racism and poor working conditions reported at Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California, affected the score. Separately, new research suggests battery cell prices will surge 22% from 2023 to 2026 amid the scarcity in raw materials needed to make EV batteries. This is why we continue to advocate that clients would be better served in commodity companies who are benefiting from price inflation, rather than commodity consumers (EV makers). Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Cisco (CSCO) – a proxy for business IT spending, guides for weaker earnings. Cisco is of the largest IT and networking businesses in the world (catering to a 1/3 the world’s market). It reported its Euro and Asian sales fell 6%. But the real story is its weak guidance. Cisco CEO guided for a drop in revenue ahead, expecting a 1-5% revenue decline for Q4, at a time when the market expected revenue growth of over 5%. This reflects that businesses are not willing to open up their pockets, at a time when inflation (wages, energy) is rising and interest rates are going higher. Consumer spending retail proxies hugely disappoint - as their profit outlooks dim. Target (TGT) shares fell 25% (biggest drop since Black Monday). Walmart (WMT) fell almost 8% as both retailers cut their forecasts for profit amid a slowdown in home-good sales at a time when they’re guiding for rising costs pressures (fuel, freight costs, rising wages). Target and Walmart make $600 billion in combined revenue, that’s double the size of the biggest company on the ASX. So given that both the retail giants are proxies for consumer spending, their demise could translate to other companies. What to consider? US retailer earnings signal shifting consumer spending patterns. We have seen a number of weak retailer/ecommerce earnings from the US now starting with Amazon (AMZN) to Walmart (WMT) to Target (TGT) reporting a 52% decline in profits overnight. While US retail sales show that the consumer is still resilient, there is certainly a shift in spending patterns away from home appliances that were the most sought after during the pandemic to reopening and travel related items such as luggage and services. But it is also important to note that inventory levels are building up, which may mean more write downs or a mark down in prices to sell off. Higher costs are also weighing and only likely to get worse in the second quarter. This means retailers will continue to face the brunt for now. Offshore investors were net seller in onshore RMB bonds for the 3rd consecutive month.  In April, foreign investors sold RMB88 billion (USD13.3bn equivalent) worth of onshore RMB bonds.  The amount of selling moderated somewhat from March’s RMB98 billion. Net inflow of foreign currency from China’s trade settlement declined. In April, net trade settlement was only 42% of China’s trade surplus of that month, below the 2021 average of 58%.  The key driver for the low net inflows seems coming from higher than usual demand from importers to buy foreign currencies, staying at escalated level of 65.1% in April versus 2021 average of 55.8%.  Exporters repatriated 60.8% of the total goods exports in April.  It was down from March’s 65.8% but still well above 2021 average of 54.6%.  Dollar trimmed gains in Asia. The USD moved higher as risk sentiment was eroded overnight, but trimmed gains in Asia. GBPUSD rose back towards 1.2400 while EURUSD was seen back above 1.0500. UK inflation shot up to 9% y/y in April from 7% previously, continuing to complicate the task for the BOE. Yen weakened in Asia, but the cap in 10-year yields as equities lose momentum is suggesting yen weakness has mostly run its course, at least on the crosses. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM AUDUSD rises 0.9%, off its low as Australian unemployment fell to a new historical monthly low (3.9%). This is the lowest reading for the survey. Unemployment was lower in 1974 when survey was quarterly. However, the AUD rose modestly off low, up 0.9% today to 0.7020, as the strong employment data gives the RBA more ammunition to raise rates - given Australia’s economy strengthened. China’s reopening theme also adds to upside for the AUD. However, longer term, as the Fed raises rates, this strengthens the USD, will likely cut the AUD’s grass. Japan imports swell on energy and weak yen. April trade deficit was seen at 839 billion yen as exports grew 12.5% y/y but imports rising 28% on higher energy prices and the drop in yen to two decade lows. Following a negative GDP print for Q1 reported yesterday, the impeding trade position is adding to Q2 risks and pent up demand remains the key to provide an offset in order to avoid a technical recession. Rising inflationary environment may however weigh on consumer spending and Japan’s April CPI will be on watch tomorrow. Consensus expects a rise to 2.5% y/y from 1.2% in March with core CPI also turning positive at 0.7% from -0.7% previously. Potential trading ideas to consider? Short CNHJPY trade that we put on last month may still have room to go. The larger foreign currency outflows due to offshore investors’ bond selling and smaller inflow of foreign currency from trade settlement tend to give add to the depreciating pressure the renminbi. At the same time, the Japanese Yen is benefiting from a safe haven bid in the midst of global equity sell-offs.  Both Japanese investors and overseas leveraged investors who fund their positions in Yen tend to repatriate and need to buy Yen in the time of turmoil.  In addition, the prospect of a pickup in inflation in Japan may trigger traders to cover their bearish positions in the Japanese Yen.  Asian retailers likely to see pressure from global counterparts. Consumer discretionary sector was leading the decline in the S&P overnight, and the rout is likely to spread to Asia. Watching key Asian retailer shares like Japan’s Fast Retailing (9983), Hong Kong’s Sun Art Retail (6808) and Australia’s Harvey Norman (HVN). With liquidity conditions only starting to tighten, there is likely room for the equity rout to run further, but cash is not a viable asset for long term investors. We remain overweight commodities and reopening.   Key economic releases this week: Friday: Japan nationwide CPI, China loan prime rates   Key earnings release this week: Thursday: Xiaomi, Generali, National Grid, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, Ross Stores, DiDi Global   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. 
This Week's Tesla Stock Split Could Be The Best Moment To Buy The Stock! Twitter Stock Price Plunged!

Could XAU extend rally? Are Apple, Tesla good to short? | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 20.05.2022 10:23
The US equities closed Thursday’s session in the negative following a choppy trading session, as investors’ hearts pounded between buying the dip, or selling further on recession fear. The US 10-year yield declined yesterday, and the sharp retreat in the US yields gave a boost to gold, raising question on whether the gold rally could be sustained, and if yes, how high could it extend. The dollar gave back gains, letting the EURUSD and GBPUSD rally, but the gains may remain short-lived if the dollar skew in market pricing continues. Tesla got kicked out of the S&P’s ESG index, which could have implications on its long-term price potential   On the individual stocks, news that Michal Burry opened a bet against Apple heated conversations about whether Apple is a good ‘short’. And finally, Tesla got kicked out of the S&P’s ESG index, which could have implications on its long-term price potential. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Market update 1:20 Is Apple a good stock to short? 3:50 US yields boosted gold. Is gold rally sustainable? 6:25 FX update: euro, pound up on softer dollar 7:58 Tesla out of S&P ESG index: what does it mean for stock performance? Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
India's RBI Keeps Repo Rate Unchanged Amid Tomato-Driven Inflation Surge

Elon Musk Firing People!? Will (TSLA) Tesla Stock Price Plunge!? | FXStreet

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.06.2022 16:34
TSLA stock is up 3% to $670 in Tuesday's premarket. Musk announces plan to cut 3% to 3.5% of total headcount. Tesla being sued for recent mass layoffs in US. Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk announced at the Qatar Economic Forum on Tuesday morning that his market-leading EV manufacturer was planning to lay off as much as 3.5% of its workforce immediately, including 10% of salaried workers. This is actually a reduction in scope by Musk, who said earlier in June that he had a "super bad feeling" about the economy not long after JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said a "hurricane" was on its way toward the US economy. At that time an internal memo from Musk called for a 10% reduction in headcount. TSLA stock is up 3% to $670 in Tuesday's premarket on the news. Tesla Stock News: Layoffs appear short-lived At the Qatar forum in an interview with Bloomberg's News' Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait, Elon Musk said the 10% of job cuts were meant only for salaried workers, as opposed to hourly manufacturing workers, because the salaried workforce had grown too quickly. “A year from now, I think our headcount will be higher," Musk added. Tesla, headquartered in Austin, Texas, now has around 100,000 employees, so this would mean that approximately 3,000 to 4,000 employees would be terminated overall. The company is already facing lawsuits for terminating 500 employees at its Nevada gigafactory earlier this month. Two employees, John Lynch and Daxton Hartsfield, have brought suit, arguing that Musk's company violated the 60-day notification period required for mass layoffs under the Worker Adjustment & Retraining Notification Act. "It's pretty shocking that Tesla would just blatantly violate federal labor law by laying off so many workers without providing the required notice," said attorney for the workers Shannon Liss-Riordan in an interview with Reuters. Musk downplayed the lawsuit when asked about it in Qatar, calling it "trivial". It is uncertain how, if at all, these layoffs would affect overseas workers. Tesla's gigafactory in Shanghai has only just gotten back in gear with exports resuming in May. Tesla exported over 22,000 vehicles from its Chinese factory in May after covid lockdowns in March and April forced it to only export 60 units. News from its factory outside Berlin is that the EV maker is being forced to raise salaries to attract talent from other automakers. Birgit Dietze, a representative for the IG Metall regional union, said that Tesla's hiring is behind schedule as it plans to hire 12,000 employees by the end of the year. This has forced Tesla to raise starting salaries by as much as 20% in order to reach hiring goals. Dietze said this will difference in pay between early hire and late hires will cause consternation at upcoming collective bargaining talks. Tesla Stock Forecast: $700 is the barrier to beat With TSLA shares rising as Elon Musk seeks to control costs, $620 remains the key support for now. Its strength comes from February 24's steep loss that held up there, but it also worked back in August 2021. Breaking through $700 turns this resistance level back into support and places TSLA stock back in neutral territory. The 20-day moving average sits nearby $700 and should also provide some resistance. If Tesla stock fails to conquer $700, then shares will likely descend back to support at $620. From there, based on the descending lower trend line, TSLA is destined for either $600 or more likely $550. That last price held strong in March and May of 2021. It is important to remember that the 20-day is way below the 50-day moving average, and that means TSLA share price is definitely still in a downtrend. Do not expect it to end until Tesla breaks and holds $700 for at least a week. Above $700 lies further resistance at $756. Breaking through the last swing high close of $775 and closing above it will spell a new bull market for the EV leader. Tesla stock daily chart
Tesla Will Struggle To Recover In The Coming Years

Wow! Tech Stocks: Tesla Stock Price Impresses With Its Performance!

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.08.2022 16:38
Tesla stock falls 6% on Friday as rally starts to stall. TSLA stock is up 31% in the past month. Elon Musk said a recession is likely to last 18 months but be mild. Tesla stock fell on Friday as commentary from Elon Musk was taken as relatively bearish. The Tesla CEO said that the US looked set for a mild recession, probably in the ballpark of 18 months. Also more noteworthy in our view, Tesla stock is up nearly 32% in the past month and was due for a stall. Regular readers will have noted that your author has been short Tesla for some time. Luckily, I saw the writing on the wall and closed the position some 25% ago in the infancy of the rally. Also read: Tesla Stock Deep Dive: Price target at $400 on China headwinds, margin compression, lower deliveries Now it may be time to review the short thesis. This equity rally has been long in duration and percentage now and may be set to stall. The catalyst for the rally, that of falling yields, is reversing after Friday's strong jobs report. That strong report has given the Fed more ammunition to go for 75 basis points again in September. We are likely to see rhetoric turn notably hawkish this week from Fed speakers. Tesla stock news Also of note were other somewhat bearish comments from Elon Musk about the long-awaited Tesla Cybertruck. “Cybertruck pricing, it was unveiled in 2019, and the reservation was $99," Musk said. "A lot has changed since then, so the specs and the pricing will be different.” One has to assume this is a warning that prices will be higher given inflation and supply chain issues, but perhaps the biggest news piece is the imminent Tesla stock split. This is due to take place after August 17, which will be the record date. The Tesla stock split is to be a 3-for-1, so that Tesla shareholders on August 17 will receive an additional two extra shares in the form of a special dividend. Trading on a stock split-adjusted basis is scheduled to begin on August 25. Stock splits are generally seen as beneficial to stock prices simply due to human psychology – we like things that are perceived as cheaper even if in reality they are not. Tesla stock forecast Tesla recently marked its monthly gain of over 30% by flashing overbought on both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI). It also retraced to the 200-day moving average but has not consolidated above there. The $945-to-$975 zone was an area of major resistance, and TSLA stock price has failed here. Momentum looks to be stalling, and Tesla is nothing if not a momentum play. This week could be interesting with Wednesday's CPI. That will dictate yields and the next Fed move, both of which will be the dominant factors in the next move for Tesla stock. Tesla chart, daily
It Was Possible That Tesla Would Move Closer To Resistance

Tech Stocks: Could Tesla Stock Price Reach $300?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 30.08.2022 16:17
Tesla falls to the first point of support. TSLA should bounce on Tuesday as markets recover. Tesla stock still looking overvalued as the sector rerates. A more or less normal day for stock markets on Monday took place after the sharp sell-off on Friday. Monday's performance was somewhat better than expected or less bad than many feared. Equity markets held up relatively well with the main indices losing less than 1%. Fears of capitulation were short-lived. This should set up a recovery rally for Tuesday and Wednesday and then probably markets will flatline ahead of Friday's employment report. Also read: Tesla Stock Deep Dive: Price target at $400 on China headwinds, margin compression, lower deliveries Tesla stock news The good news for bulls was that Monday's price action opened on the lows at $280, retested it in the first half, and then put in place a double bottom on an intraday basis that set Tesla (TSLA) stock higher for the remainder of the session. Overall, it was a pretty boring day. Tesla had a range of about $7 on the day, but there was no follow-through from Friday's sell-off. Is this consolidation just a holding pattern before further falls or a base building for a recovery? Tesla stock forecast TSLA stock longer-term view remains bearish with the series of lower tops identified by our trendline below. As we can see, Tesla is stuck in a high-volume area (grey bars on the right). High-volume areas are stabilization zones, and markets tend to move from one to another. Below $281 and above $314, volume thins out, so we would expect Tesla to move quickly through those zones. The recent Fed hawkish commentary from Powell puts the risk-reward in favor of the downside in my view, so I would be looking for TSLA stock to break $281 and a swift move through light volume until we reach the next high volume zone at $240. However, ahead of Friday, there is likely to be some recovery and then stabilization around $300. TSLA 1-day chart
Saxo Bank Podcast: The Risk Of An Escalation In The US-China Confrontation, The Risk Of An Escalation In The US-China Confrontation And More

Tesla, Apple And Nike Rose, The United States Can Send Military Forces To Taiwan

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 20.09.2022 08:53
Summary:  Ahead of the Fed’s interest rates decision with rates expected to rise by 0.75%, the price of the 10-year yield rose to 3.5% for the first time since 2011. Normally this puts equities in a precarious position, however, investors looked past this as a big red flag. The most buying overnight in US equities was in the Materials sector after commodity prices rallied, while sizeable moves were also in big tech names. Sentiment flowed to the ASX, with lithium and coal stocks being bid the most, after their commodity prices hit new record highs. And as such, the risk-on mood is set to flow through the Asia-Pacific today. Ahead, all eyes are on Australia's RBA meeting minutes and the reaction to Japan's CPI hitting a 31-year high. For the latest in markets and what to consider next, read today's APAC DD. What is happening in markets?   Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Ahead of the Fed’s Wednesday interest rates decision with rates expected to rise by 0.75%, the price of the 10-year yield rose to 3.5% for the first time since 2011 and the 2-year note popped to a 15-year high of 3.96%. Normally this would put equities on the back foot and in a precarious position. As such this remains a big red flag for equities that are interest rate sensitive (tech, property, consumer spending). However, overnight equities looked past the noise and ended on a high note. But indeed, it was a volatile session. The S&P500 was down 1% earlier in the day, but marched higher in the final hour, supported by strong moves in big tech names. The S&P500 not only wiped out the day’s earlier loss but Friday’s fall too, closing up 0.7%. We saw 9 of the 11 sectors rise, led my Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials, while Heath Care was a laggard. Nasdaq 100 gained 0.8%. Big US stock movers Tesla (TSLA:xnas) gained about 2% on plans to increase the price of its supercharger stations in Europe. Apple (AAPL:xnas) rose 2.5% on news of Apple planning to fix the shaking iPhone 14  camera. Nike (NKE:xnys) gained 3% with investors betting their results later this week might not be as bad as feared. We think there could also be an upside scenario in 2023 for Nike if mainland China strengthens with its easing of lockdowns over the next 12 months, which would likely boost sportswear sales and margins. Afterhours Ford (F:xnys) warned that inflation had caused supplier costs to rise by $1 billion in the current quarter, joining a chorus of major companies experiencing the same macro challenges ripping through the economy. Ford shares fell 4.4% after hours, suggesting they will open lower when normal trading resumes. Moderna (MRNA:xnas), BioNTech(BNTX:xnas), and Novavax (NVAX:xnas) fell 7% to 8% after President Biden said in a CBS 60 Minutes interview that “the Covid pandemic is over”. U.S. treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) hit new highs The 10-year yield briefly exceeded 3.5% to 3.52% intraday for the first time since 2011, in an otherwise quiet session with the cash treasuries market being closed in London and Tokyo for holiday. The 10-year notes managed to pare some of their losses and finished the day at 3.49%, up 4bps from last Friday. The short end of the curve underperformed ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC, with 2-year yields climbing 7bps to a new closing high at 3.94%.  Australia’s ASX200 hits a two-day high, supported by Lithium and Coal stocks Today the Australian share market opened 1% higher in the first 10 minutes of trade, following Wall Street’s rally. Some of the biggest moves are in lithium and coal. Lithium companies are surging after the lithium price rallied to a brand-new record high, with the lithium carbonate price hitting a new record of $73,315 a ton in China (according to Asia Metal Inc). Core Lithium (CXO) is a stock to watch after it agreed with Tesla (TSLA) to extend the termination date for its binding offtake (sales) agreement to October 26. The extension allows the companies to negotiate a full form binding offtake agreement. Other lithium stocks to watch include Pilbara Minerals (PLS) after its shares rallied 3.6% in early trade, to a brand new record high of A$4.80. Elsewhere, Fortescue (FMG) rose about 1% on plans to decarbonize its business with a A$6.2 billion plan. Also, keep an eye on Oz Minerals (OZ) with the copper miner seeking a $10 billion potential sale to BHP (BHP). Speaking of BHP (BHP), its shares are up 1.8% after the NYSE listed BHP rallied overnight amid the risk-on mood. Risk-on mood setting up in Asian trade today Despite expectations of massive tightening moves being delivered globally this week and the surge in US 10-year yields above 3.5% overnight, the Asia session kicked off with risk-on sentiment. US equity futures extended gains and the USD was weaker, with the Japanese yen stronger at 143 despite CPI touching 3% in August. GBPUSD surged higher to 1.1460 while EURUSD extended gains to get close to 1.0050 levels amid ECB’s hawkishness and some relief on gas prices as well. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Yesterday the Hang Seng Index dropped 1%, dragged down by technology and China property stocks. Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) declining 2.1 % with Alibaba (09988:xhkg) down 3.6%, Bilibili (09626:xhkg) down 5.6%.  In the China property space, Longfor (00960:xhkg) dropped 6.1% and Country Garden (02007:xhkg) slid 3.3%.  EV makers underperformed, with NIO (09866:xhkg), Li Auto (02015:xhkg), and Xpeng (09868:xhkg) plunging from 4% to 6%. U.S. President Joe Biden’s affirmative response to the question about sending U.S. forces to fend Taiwan off Chinese military actions added to investors’ concerns about an escalation in Sino-American tension.  Following the news that the Hong Kong Government is reviewing and considering plans to end the hotel quarantine requirements for inbound travelers, Hong Kong tourism and retail stocks rallied, Cathay Pacific Airways (00293:xhkg) up nearly 1%, travel agency EGL (06882:xhkg) soaring 11.5%, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (01929:xhkg) rising 6.2%.  In mainland bourses, the approaching of the National Day golden week holiday and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism’s public consultation on promoting cross-border tourism pushed up tourism, catering, and beverage stocks. Coal mining stocks also gained. Solar power, semiconductors, and beauty care stocks dropped. CSI300 finished the day little changed.  Crude oil (CLU2 & LCOV2) Some support was seen to crude oil demand on Monday despite the risks of massive central bank tightening this week. A somewhat softer USD as well hoped of easing movement restrictions in China helped crude oil eke out a modest gain, despite the potential for increased supply. The US announced that it will offer an additional 10mbbl from its strategic reserve. Only last week it was reported that the Department of Energy was looking at plans to start replenishing the stockpile. UAE also said it was accelerating its plan to produce 5mb/d of crude oil by 2025. WTI futures rose back towards $86/barrel while Brent futures were above $92. What to consider? US NAHB in its ninth month of decline NAHB Housing Market Index reported its ninth consecutive decline to 46.0, beneath the prior 49.0 and expected 47.0. The weaker-than-expected data highlighted the pessimism hitting the US housing market due to the rising mortgage rates, and housing starts may be set to cool further in the coming months. However, no systemic risks are seen as the housing market remains a lagged indicator. Australia’s RBA expected to increase inflation expectations as coal pushes up and La Nina hits The RBA meeting minutes released today at 11.30am Sydney time, will be dissected for clues that the RBA will be increasing its inflationary expectations. Particularly as the coal price, where Australia gets the majority of its energy from, hit another record high (and coal is not in peak demand season yet). On top of that the RBA will probably allude to La Nina’s threat on Australia. We think the RBA may touch on wheat prices picking up again, given they are up 16% from August. Frost and rain in South America has impacted their wheat supply, dryness in the US will reduce their supply, plus heavy rains are headed for Australia for the third year in a row. So global wheat supply is expected to be short again and push up inflationary pressures. The AUDUSD might see a knee jerk reaction higher if the RBA alludes to this. However, we expect the AUDUSD to come under pressure, as the magnitude of the Fed’s hike supports the favoured currency, the USD moving up. Japan CPI hits a 31-year high Japan’s August CPI touched the dreaded 3% YoY mark from 2.6% previously, coming in at the strongest levels in over three decades and significantly above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target level. The core measure, which excludes fresh food and energy, also come in higher-than-expected at 1.6% YoY. With the wage growth remaining restrained, this may mean nothing for Bank of Japan which remains committed to maintaining its yield curve control policy. However, the markets may start to test the BoJ’s resolve once again, especially with US 10-year yields also touching 3.5% overnight while JGB yields remain capped at 0.25%. Hong Kong’s unemployment rate came in at 4.1% Hong Kong released the city’s unemployment rate which came in at 4,1% for the June to August period, 0.2 percentage points lower from last the May to July period. The underemployment rate fell to 2.0% from 2.2%.  U.S. President Joe Biden gave an affirmative response regarding sending forces to fend Taiwan off from mainland China When being asked in a CBS 60 Minutes interview whether the U.S. would send forces to defend Taiwan in case of military actions from mainland China, President Biden replied: “Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack.”  In answering a follow-up question about if the U.S, unlike in Ukraine, would send forces men and women to defend Taiwan, Biden said: “Yes.”   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/apac-daily-digest-20-sept-2022-20092022
US Inflation Slows as Spending Stalls: Glimmers of Hope for Economic Outlook

Tech Stocks: Tesla Stock Price Decreased By 2% On September 21st

FXStreet News FXStreet News 22.09.2022 15:38
Tesla stock gyrates wildly around the Fed interest rate decision. TSLA eventually closed down over 2% on Wednesday. Tesla is likely to struggle further along with all equities. Tesla (TSLA) swung around pretty wildly as the Fed decision was announced. The gyrations were partly to do with positioning and also lingering hopes for a Fed pivot. Equity markets sold off on the initial 75 bps rate hike. It was more the dot plot showing higher rates in 2023 that caught many by surprise. No Fed pivot in 2023 was not what equity bulls had been hoping for, but the press conference began slightly more dovish with talk of a "pause" and phrases like "data dependent" getting equity bulls' hopes up. The Nasdaq surged into positive territory before finally bowing to the inevitable. Rates are going higher, and equities will have to take some more pain. Tesla stock news All this overshadows any specific Tesla news, of which there is little anyway. Reuters had earlier reported that Tesla was looking to close some showrooms in China, but the company has supposedly denied this. Outside of that, the news was relatively light, an unusual move for Tesla. The attention will now begin to focus on the next set of quarterly earnings, which are due on October 20. Tesla has reported strong sales growth in China, so investors will be looking for clarity on projections there. Delivery lead times have been slashed on the mainland as well, with the Shanghai Giga factory getting upgraded. The question remains how much of this falling delivery time is attributable to falling demand. The last set of data from China appeared to show not much as Tesla nearly tripled its sales growth in China from a year prior. Tesla stock forecast Tesla stock once again failed at the upper resistance at $314 on Wednesday. This was in line with the rally and sharp sell-off of US equities into Wednesday's close. Now we wait to see how much follow-up there is on the sell side. The medium-term outlook is bearish with higher yields now offering a viable alternative to equity investments. In the current climate, safety offered by bonds (especially short-term bonds held to maturity) will likely tempt investors. Below $314 Tesla, therefore, looks bearish with a target of $281 and then $265. TSLA daily chart
Could The Price Of Lithium Affect Tesla's Performance, Whitehaven Shares Are Up

Could The Price Of Lithium Affect Tesla's Performance, Whitehaven Shares Are Up

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 23.09.2022 13:43
Summary:  US earnings season is about to get underway, and Australia’s financial year reporting just wrapped up, so let's cover five hot stocks to watch. General Mills is the best performing US stock this week in the S&P500 after the Wheat price gained 24% in the month. Pilbara Minerals, is one of this week's best performers in the ASX after selling its lithium for a record price this week to China. Whitehaven Coal is another to watch, as it's benefiting from surging coal demand and prices, with its shares trading at brand new record highs in anticipation of another record profit. Lastly, we cover why Tesla and Apple are two of the most traded stocks at Saxo in September. General Mills  General Mills is the biggest wheat exporter in the US Its shares have been outperforming the market and are of the best performers in the US this year, up 22% Its shares are picking up momentum as the Wheat (WHEATDEC22) price has gained 24% in a month So what’s moving Wheat higher into a technical uptrend? South America wheat supply has been impacted by frost and rain, US supply is expected to fall due to dry conditions and drought in the US Heavy rains are headed for Australia for the third year in a row amid La Nina And lastly – with Russia mobilizing troops against Ukraine, this adds to supply concerns for Wheat, on concerns Ukraine’s export terminal could be shut once more. So General Mills is a stock to watch, as the wheat price rises, it boost its cashflow and share price growth.  Pilbara Minerals   Pilbara Minerals is Australia biggest exporter of lithium Its shares have gained almost 50% this year as the lithium price tripled in the last year, fueled by electric vehicle demand Pilbara Minerals auctioned off its lithium spodumene concentrate (or partly processed lithium) for a record price of AUD$7,708 with the shipment to go to China So who is buying Pilbara’s lithium? Two of Pilbara’s most known customers include China’s Genfeng and the car maker Great Wall. So what’s next? Well if the lithium price continues to rally amid the lack of supply and rising demand, Pilbara’s shares could stay elevated supported by expectations that higher cashflow and earnings growth are ahead. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast lithium demand to grow more than 40 times over the next two decades Pilbara operates on a Price to Earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times forward earnings estimates, which is comparatively cheaper than its peers. So Pilbara could be a stock to watch. Whitehaven Coal Whitehaven is Australia's biggest exporter of coal and the best performing stock in the global share market this year, among large companies Its shares are up 250% Last financial year Whitehaven's earnings rose 1,500% boosted by the coal price soaring to new record highs So what's next? The coal price is surging amid a lack of coal supply and rising demand  Demand for coal has been increasing as the world searches for cheap access to emergency energy Regions like India are experiencing a heat waves, while Australia has been hit by its coldest winter on record. The coal futures price, which is an indication of the future price of coal, is also continuing to move further higher into new record highs, simply telling us, that the spot coal price is likely to move higher yet again, as the world is facing a lack of energy reserves, and forward demand is also increasing. Peak coal demand season is December and January, so we expect the coal price to move higher as demand increases from coals biggest consumers (India and China) amid their winter.    Tesla   Tesla is one of most traded stocks at Saxo globally this month Across the world, Tesla electric vehicles are one of the most bought electric vehicles Its shares have had a bumpy ride this year, as the company’s been plagued by higher raw materials and commodity costs Although Tesla shares rallied up 50% from than their May low, there are now concerns some of those gains could fade, as the lithium price is back at record highs However on the positive side for Tesla;  Tesla is increasing some of its costs, such as increasing the price of supercharger station use in Europe And Tesla is controlling other costs where possible, by looking to make in-house battery cells As for new revenue streams; the Cybertruck’s production is set for mid-2023 Across Europe, Tesla is aiming to increase sales. For instance in Germany it wants to double sales growth, compared to last year, after opening new stores And in the US, across the entire electric vehicle market, all EV sales are expected to rise after the United States introduces new climate law and tax credits. Bloomberg estimates total EV industry sales will make up 52% of total car sales by 2030. That’s a huge jump compared to the 5% last year. And Tesla will be capturing some of this growth Tesla trades at a Price to Earnings (PE) ratio of 109 times forward earnings estimates, which make it looks expensive compared to Ford’s PE of 7 times. Given commodity prices are likely to continue to rise, and Bloomberg estimates suggest Tesla’s margins could be flat this year, before picking up in 2023, you might expect Tesla's shares be pressured before potentially rebounding later next year.   Apple   Apple is the one of the most traded stocks at Saxo globally this month Its shares have also had a bumpy ride, but its innovation should support the company’s shares growing in value over the long term Interestedly, Apple’s iPhone sales generate half of the group’s total revenue, and last quarter, total revenue stood at about $41 billion Apple's launch of its new iPhone, including its most expensive model yet, the iPhone 14 Pro model should also help next quarterly earnings. Why? Well iPhone 14 shipments are said to account 60-65% of orders, which is up from the previously estimated range of 55-60%. This means Apple could have a positive outlook when they release their next quarterly earnings in late October. Apples new watch and air pods should also bolster Apples outlook And going forward, Apple's customer retention is set to expand as it moves to a new subscription model. Apple estimates 98% of its customers want to upgrade their phone each year. So that’s a reason to perhaps consider Apple for the long term To find out more about the these companies or other opportunities, head to Saxo's Platform.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/looking-for-stocks-to-buy--here-are-five-to-watch-23092022
The Statement By Elon Musk About Starlink May Cause Confusion | Leaders Must Take Action To Protect The Environment

The Statement By Elon Musk About Starlink May Cause Confusion | Leaders Must Take Action To Protect The Environment

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 25.09.2022 12:39
The financial environment is not only about numbers, analyzes and statistics. Nowadays, investors must also observe statements or individual actions of leaders. Moreover, the climate, environmentalists or pro-ecological activists call for action to protect the climate and thus to prevent global warming. Not only leaders have to care about the environment, but also the technology market. There are many technologies that care for the environment, and their development continues. In this article: The populations at risk from extreme heat Technology development Statement by Elon Musk The interest in clean-energy funds A career switch Leaders must also take care of the climate Morgan Stanley in his tweet emphasizes how important it is for leaders around the world to take action to protect the climate. Leaders around the world, from both the public and private sectors, must tackle climate change together to protect the populations at risk from extreme heat. Find out more: https://t.co/hHYtWbnX7A — Morgan Stanley (@MorganStanley) September 24, 2022   Nowadays, we observe climate change more and more often. Actions that humanity undertakes significantly affect the condition of the climate. State leaders or business owners must not only take care of the financial condition, but also take actions that will protect humanity from climatic extermination. If we forget that protecting the climate is equally important, it may one day turn out that water will be more valuable than a diamond. Future of technology Goldman Sachs Publication informs about an interview with Stephan Feld Goise with @BloombergTV about what activity we can expect in the technology industry. Stephan Feldgoise, our co-head of Global M&A, chats with @BloombergTV on what activity we can expect in the tech sector this year and next. https://t.co/Iw2e6Vz6WE — Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) September 16, 2022   Technology is present in our lives. Younger generations cannot imagine their lives without Internet access. Thanks to technology, I have more possibilities, and its continuous development is quite fast. Reflecting on what the technology market can offer new consumers, a lot of speculation arises, almost like in the futuristic novels of StanisÅ‚aw Lem. It is worth delving into what the technology market can offer us in the near future, that is this year and next. Starlink activation in Iran is it true * Walter Bloomberg in his tweet quotes Elon Musk. We learn that starlink activation in Iran. ELON MUSK SAYS ACTIVATING STARLINK IN IRAN — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 23, 2022   Such a statement may have caused a lot of controversy. After saying about buying Twitter, some recipients may treat the current information as a joke. Others, on the other hand, may believe that the business magnate and investor may only be trying to focus on themselves to stimulate their PR. His comments may significantly affect the Tesla share price and the financial environment. A single statement from the face of the company can cause confusion. The recent interest in clean-energy funds Morningstar, Inc. in his tweet, he informs about the interest in clean-energy funds. Recent climate legislation may be driving interest in clean-energy funds. And investors face many choices.@Jon_F_Hale recently examined the 5 largest clean-energy ETFs — as well as electric vehicle-focused funds. Here's what he found: https://t.co/EapNRt5EME#climateweek2022 pic.twitter.com/hn68Wtse4o — Morningstar, Inc. (@MorningstarInc) September 24, 2022   Taking care of the climate is very important. Electric cars have appeared on the market, and more and more households use solar panels. The interest in clean-energy is not only practical but also financial. Investors are more and more willing to take action in this area. According to the author of the tweet, the recent interest in clean-energy funds could have been caused by recent climate legislation. How to start a career in finance? Charles Schwab Corp announces in his tweet the possibility of starting a career in the financial sector without having any experience in this area. Did you know you don’t need a background in finance to make a career switch to a role at Schwab? Rebecca is using her experience and passion for teaching to succeed in her new role at Schwab. https://t.co/ptCOSvsOl7 pic.twitter.com/zXFEve3tp7 — Charles Schwab Corp (@CharlesSchwab) September 23, 2022 Many people dream of a career in finance but do not have the knowledge or skills or experience. There are single units that show by their example that there is nothing impossible to start over and start working in finance. The aforementioned units show that to start the change, it is enough to use what we have. A post like this one can fill people who want to change with optimism and a motivator to act.
Market Sentiment and Fed Policy Uncertainty: Impact on August Performance

The Third Quarter Ends With Losses, U.S. Dollar (USD) Strength Is Worrying

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 03.10.2022 10:21
We spent the weekend talking about whether Credit Suisse will finally go bust or not. The share price is down below 4 francs a share, and the credit default swaps are going through the roof. The 5-year CDS for Credit Suisse spiked to 250 from around 60 at the start of the year. It means that the market is aggressively pricing a default for one of the biggest Swiss banks. Is it possible? Yes, it is possible, but it is highly unlikely. A negative note Zooming out, the third quarter ends with losses, even though we thought that the summer rally could’ve given something. But no. The S&P500 finished the 3rd quarter having slipped to the lowest levels this year. The same is true for Nasdaq and the Dow Jones. $24 trillion have been wiped out of the stocks so far this year. And the last quarter begins with aggressive rate hike expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed), but also from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) to fight inflation and the dollar strength.Nike has been the latest company warning investors of falling profits due to mountains of stockpiles that they inherited from the pandemic times – and which brought the company to make nice price discounts -, and the strong dollar. Waiting for tesla reactions This week, we will watch how Tesla will react to the latest delivery report, the OPEC decision and the US jobs figures… and hope that this week’s jobs data doesn’t reveal strong job additions, and solid salary growth in the US. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:21 What will happen to Credit Suisse? 3:14 Q3 ends on a negative note… 5:36 USD strength to become a major headache for next earnings season 6:51 What to watch this week? Tesla deliveries, OPEC decision & US jobs 7:50 Econ101 minute: Why the Fed must destroy jobs to fight inflation?   Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #CreditSuisse #Q4 #Nike #earnings #strongUSD #USD #EUR #GBP #Tesla #OPEC #US #jobs #Fed #BoE #ECB #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
UK Labor Market Shows Signs of Loosening as Unemployment Rises: ONS Report

The New Quarter (Q4) Kicked Off On A Volatile In Positive Way

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 04.10.2022 10:35
The new week, the new month and the new quarter kicked off on a volatile, but a positive note. Credit Suisse closed a very ugly session with 0.90% loss only. Stocks  European indices gained, while the US indices rallied as softer-than-expected US ISM manufacturing index gave a positive spin to the market. The Dow Jones jumped the most on Monday, as oil stocks literally roared on the back of firmer oil prices. Oil bulls are betting that OPEC will announce an output cut of around a million barrels per day to ‘stabilize’ oil prices. FX Update In the FX, the US dollar retreat almost 3% since its September peak. The dollar lost more than 4.50% against the Brazilian real, as Cable rallied past the 1.13 level, after Liz Truss government took a ‘mini’ step back from their terribly unpopular fiscal spending plan, and said that they will not reduce taxes on big salaries. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its interest rates by 25bp only, versus 50bp expected by analysts. Today's report Today, we will be watching the job openings data in the US, and hope to see a smaller number, as the Fed sees the job openings as a factor that could ease the pressure in the US jobs market. Then, will follow the ADP report on Wednesday, and the NFP, unemployment rate and the wages growth on Friday. Investors are praying for softish numbers this week to continue the rally. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:22 Stocks rebound 1:23 Oil stocks rally on firmer oil 4:44 …but Tesla slumps 5:55 FX update: USD down, BRL & GBP up 6:33 … but Brits want to see Liz spend less 8:16 RBA cuts less & investors need soft US data to cheer up Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #CreditSuisse #Tesla #Brazil #election #Bolsonaro #Lula #BRL #USD #GBP #OPEC #output #cut #crude #oil #US #jobs #Fed #BoE #Liz #Truss #mini #budget #SMI #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
The RBA Surprised With A Smaller 25 bp Hike , Sterling (GBP) Rose, The USD Has Weakened

The RBA Surprised With A Smaller 25 bp Hike , Sterling (GBP) Rose, The USD Has Weakened

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 04.10.2022 13:13
Summary:  Markets yesterday show how quickly this hot-tempered market can try to sniff out a Fed that will eventually pivot to a less hawkish stance as a weak US September ISM Manufacturing survey data point engineered a huge decline in US yields and significant USD weakness. More important US data is to come this week through Friday’s jobs report. Elsewhere, the surprisingly dovish RBA battled with supportive developments in commodities to sway the Aussie overnight. FX Trading focus: Desperation for the Fed pivot. Sterling: can it really be that easy? Dovish RBA. Yesterday saw US 10-year treasury yields almost 25 basis points lower from intraday highs, with much of the treasury buying/yield drop coming in the wake of a weaker than expected September US ISM Manufacturing survey, out at 50.9, below the 52.0 expected and 52.8 in August. The New Orders were far worse than expected at 47.1 vs. 50.5 expected and 51.3 in August. Alas, we have to remember that the Manufacturing sector is small in the US and about half of the dips to near or below 50 have not indicated imminent recession in the US. The ISM Services survey – up tomorrow - would be a different matter if it were to show marked deterioration. Elsewhere, a tweet from the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos noting that influential economist Greg Mankiw agreed with economist/pundit Paul Krugman’s assessment that the Fed is tightening too quickly may have helped to drive the sentiment shift at the margin as well. Pushing back against that was Fed Vice Chair Williams out expressing the belief that the Fed must remain on message: “Tighter monetary policy has begun to cool demand and reduce inflationary pressures, but our job is not yet done.” Williams speech does suggest that the Fed thinks that it is succeeding, so the strongest risk to markets here would be stronger US data suggesting a still strong pace of activity in services and a still very tight labor market with accelerating wage pressures. The Fed forecast assume a fairly soft landing of weak growth and 4.4% unemployment. Self-feeding cycles in a downturn and the Fed’s focus on lagging indicators like employment are likely to eventually lead to far worse outcomes. The USD has weakened at the outset of the week here – but note EURUSD holding the line so far just ahead of the key 0.9900 level. AUDUSD has far more wood to chop for a reversal, as discussed below. The most remarkably priced pair at the moment, however, may be USDJPY, which remains pinned near 145.00 despite the significant drop in long US treasury yields. Still uneasy about the risk of a blowout market-BoJ/MoF showdown – that’s a very weak performance from the yen today. Chart: AUDUSDThe AUDUSD chart has been an interesting one to watch since yesterday and overnight. Strong risk sentiment and lower US treasury yields weighed on the US dollar and helped boost commodity prices, both strongly Aussie supportive. But then the huge mark-down in Australian yields on a quite dovish RBA (more below) challenged the Aussie overnight. Looks like a battle-zone tactically around the local 0.6530 resistance, which was briefly taken out this morning on the further USD weakness before reversing back into the zone later in trading today. The down-trend is so well established that it would take a surge to at least above 0.6700 to begin challenging the down-trend here. The RBA surprised the majority of observers with a smaller 25 basis point hike to take the policy rate to 2.60%. It’s a reminder of the vast shift relative to the old regime, in which one might have expected an RBA rate at least 100-200 bps higher than the Fed’s. The last time the Fed was hiking to north of 3.00% was in mid-2005, when the RBA cash target had already reached above 5%. The RBA chose to emphasize caution in its latest statement, citing the anticipation that unemployment will eventually rise beyond the near term strength in the labor market as the economy eventually weakens. Governor Lowe and company are clearly uneasy and uncertain on the effects of the sharp tightening in the bag on mortgage rates and future spending, and the statement continues to cite lower wage growth than elsewhere. In addition to AUDUSD note above, also interesting to watch the relative strength in AUDNZD over tonight’s RBNZ, as the sharply lower Australian yields (the year-forward RBA rate has been marked a remarkable 50 basis points lower by the market after this meeting). A surrender below the 1.1250-1.1300 zone would suggest a risk that the attempt to reprice the pair higher on the shift in relative current account dynamics I have cited before has failed for now. Sterling rose further after Chancellor Kwarteng yesterday reversed his decision on the tax cut for the highest incomes in the UK. Interesting that this is was particularly item, while politically unpopular, was one of the least consequential in terms of the fiscal impact. For now, given the soaring risk sentiment backdrop, sterling short covering continues, but surely it’s not this easy? Technically, watching the major resistance zone at 1.1500 zone in GBPUSD and whether the bearish reversal back into the old range below 0.8700 in EURGBP sticks. This is still a government that is very much on the rocks. The latest controversy PM Truss is courting is claiming that she has yet to decide whether UK welfare distributions, outside of pensioners, should be raised with inflation, which has some Tory MP’s up in arms. Chancellor Kwarteng, feeling the rising pressure, will bring forward his fiscal statement to later this month from late November, around the time the Office of Budget Responsibility publishes its forecasts. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The USD rose so far in its up-trend before the recent setback, that there is some residual medium term up-trend strength left, though momentum has shifted markedly against the greenback. The opposite is the case for sterling, which has achieved a positive trend reading versus the G10 broadly due to weak G10 smalls of late (note GBPNZD, for example, at a high since late February. Elsewhere, strong risk sentiment, together with concerns of a struggling Swiss bank have brought CHF south in a hurry over the last week. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.CHF on its back foot and our longest surviving trend, the GBPCHF downtrend, is now dead. Sterling upside breaks are spreading, in fact. Also note the shift in US yields taking XAGUSD onto a sudden moonshot, while XAUUSD is eyeing an up-trend as well. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1230 – ECB's Centeno to speak 1300 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 1315 – US Fed’s Mester (voter) to speak 1400 – US Aug. Factory Orders 1400 – US Aug. JOLTS Job Openings 1500 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 0100 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Target Announcement Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-the-desperation-for-the-fed-pivot-04102022
The Social Phenomenon Elon Musk Has Kept The Narrative Around Tesla’s Growth Intact

Tesla Is Facing Growing Downside Risks And Very Optimistic Analysts' Expectations

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 04.10.2022 13:54
Summary:  Tesla has been one of the strongest consumer discretionary stocks since May but yesterday's negative price action amid a strong rebound in US equities is sending a signal that investors are getting nervous. One thing is the Q3 deliveries miss against estimates but elevated lithium prices are hurting on input costs and the cost-of-living crisis is beginning to lower demand significantly across many consumer discretionary categories including cars. Tesla is facing growing downside risks against a very rosy outlook priced into the stock with analysts expecting 42% revenue growth in 2023. Tesla shares down 9% in a strong equity session is a strong sign of nervousness Yesterday’s strong US equity session was sending some odd signals as we would typically expect high beta and growth pockets to rally more than the market, but it was instead theme baskets such as defence and commodities that rallied. Adding to this interesting session, Tesla shares were down 8.6% being the only mega cap stock (the 40 largest stocks in S&P 500) that was down more than 1%. A big part of the move in Tesla was of course due to Q3 deliveries missing estimates (343,830 vs 357,938) which Tesla said is due to logistical issues, but the pressure is on Tesla now as the EV-maker has to produce 450,000 cars in the last quarter to meet its 50% annually target that it has set. This seems to be a quite steep target to reach. One thing is the logistical issues in the global car supply chain, but there are two other growing risk sources for Tesla. So far, Tesla has been immune to the cost-of-living crisis caused by the galloping energy crisis which has led Tesla to significantly outperform the global consumer discretionary sector (see chart below). However, with elevated electricity prices and high inflation due to high energy and food prices, the demand is coming down sharply for many consumer companies hitting Apple, Nike, and H&M recently. This is probably the biggest risk to Tesla’s outlook which is still very optimistic with analysts expecting 42% revenue growth in 2023, something we find hard to be achievable given the development in electricity prices and disposable income. In addition there are two hard physical constraints on Tesla’s growth trajectory. The first one is the price of lithium which remains elevated at very high levels putting pressure on battery prices and thus the price on electric vehicles. Given the adoption curve expected on EVs this market could remain very tight for years. Another constraint is the physical electricity grid which needs a massive upgrade to handle all the new EVs and air-to-water heat pumps. Both of these physical constraints are out of Tesla’s control and if they are not solved quickly the 50% annualized growth target may quickly turn out to be lofty vision with no connection to the real world. Are financial conditions too tight already? The US bond yields continued significantly lower yesterday and the 10-year yield is touching 3.57% ahead of the US trading session. This is a sharp reversal from the 4% level reached on 28 September. US equities responded yesterday to the falling yield bouncing back. Positions were stretched across many markets and we are likely witnessing short covering on a big scale. Several leading economists have also been out warning that maybe the Fed is getting to aggressive on its rate policy. If we look at the US financial conditions (see chart below) then financial conditions are back above zero meaning that they are tighter than the average since 1971 relative to the strength of the economy. In theory the current level of financial conditions should begin to have an impact on inflation going forward. The key risk is that inflation has become engrained in the most sticky parts of the services economy and that rising wages could create a wages-inflation feedback loop that will require even tighter financial conditions to get inflation under control. This wage-inflation dynamic is the key topic to watch in 2023.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/is-tesla-driving-into-physical-limits-in-the-economy-04102022
Weekly Commitment of Traders update - Buying of crude oil moderated, ICE gas oil net long reduced to a 30-month low

Podcast: Resistance In US Markets, The Crude Oil Reversal On The Threats And OPEC Meeting

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 05.10.2022 11:11
Summary:  Today we look at the short squeeze in equity markets finding surprising further strength yesterday and note that key resistance in US markets has already come into view as the "central bank pivot" narrative may struggle to find further sustenance when most of what we have seen may have just been a temporary improvement after a scary episode driven by UK gilt market contagion that eased. We also look at the status of FX markets, the crude oil reversal on the threats of an actual large production cut from OPEC+ today, Tesla and Twitter after Musk u-turned on his intent to challenge the deal, Tesco and semiconductor stocks and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-5-2022-05102022
NZD/USD: Reserve Bank Of New Zealand Is Expected To Hike The Rate By 50bp

Twitter Stock Price Up, Tesla (TSLA) Down, Elon Musk Has Shaken Up The Stock Market Again!

FXStreet News FXStreet News 05.10.2022 15:51
TWTR closes up 22.2% after Musk agrees to go through with acquisition. Tesla stock falls in premarket on the news. Musk says Twitter is part of his designs for a superapp. If you have been living under a rock for the last 24 hours, you may not have heard that Elon Musk has decided to buy Twitter (TWTR) for the original price of $54.20 agreed to back in April. ...And so our corporate fairy tale finally starts on its road to a conclusion. Musk was scheduled to be deposed later this week, and some pundits think the likelihood of failure in extricating himself from his agreement to buy the social media platform back in April was the major reason for wanting to end the current litigation. Either way, Twitter has agreed to the acquisition, and TWTR stock zoomed up 22.2% to close at $52. Carl Icahn reportedly profited about $250 million by holding onto TWTR when Musk tried to exit the deal in July and shares fell to $31.52. Twitter stock news According to reporting from The Financial Times, Musk's lawyers held a Zoom (ZM) call with Judge Kathaleen McCormick from the Delware Chancery Court and Twitter representatives early on Tuesday. The parties agreed to go through with the original acquisition framework, but Twitter has requested new stipulations on timelines and deliverables. Late Tuesday, Musk's legal team filed its intent with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC). The relevant section of the filing reads: "On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to Twitter (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying Twitter that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court." A spokesperson for Twitter stated that the "intention of the company is to close the transaction at $54.20 per share". Now the only thing that stands in the way for the deal going through is ensuring that the financing is there. A number of Wall Street banks had already signed up for $13 billion in financing, which may be more difficult now that interest rates are racing higher. More of the debt may have to come from the banks themselves rather than outside clients. Binance, the crypto exchange, also had agreed to put up $500 million for the deal, and Oracle founder Larry Ellision had said he would put up at least $1 billion. That leaves Musk, who already owns 9.6% of Twitter, to come up with the other $25 billion or so. Plenty of other institutions will likely be brought into the fold, but the market is still thinking Musk will need to sell a further chunk of Tesla stock. TSLA gained 2.9% in Tuesday's regular session, but is off 1.5% in Wednesday's premarket. For his part, Musk decided to forget about his mid-Summer fight over the number of bots on the social network and focus on the possibilities. He posted that Twitter would become part of an "everthing app" called X, which of course reminds one of his vaunted X.com startup that eventually merged to become part of PayPal (PYPL).   Twitter stock forecast Technically, if you buy TWTR stock at $52, then you could make 4% when the acquisition is finalized. With 10-year treasuries still at 3.6% though and Musk requiring financing in a poorer investing climate, TWTR should remain at a discount until the end. Below you can see how both TWTR and TSLA reacted to the news release. TWTR ran up over 22%, and TSLA sold off after adding 2.9% in the regular session. TWTR vs TSLA 1-minute chart for 10/4/22 If this is indeed the end, how did TWTR do as a public company? The answer is: simply awful. If you had bought TWTR near its height in December 2013 (nearly 10 years ago), you would have lost money at Musk's acquisition price. Twitter will continue, but as a public stock it has never amounted to a solid business. Instead it might even be its lackluster corporate prospects that have endeared it to so many fans, myself included. TWTR monthly chart
At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange 728 Securities Closed In The Red

US Stocks: Twitter Stock Price Is Like A Highspeed Rollercoaster!

FXStreet News FXStreet News 07.10.2022 15:54
Twitter stock fell nearly 4% on Thursday as the Elon Musk saga continues. TWTR stock now trading nearly 10% below the offer price of $54.20. Twitter still has surged from lows of $41 last week. Read next: Terra's Worker Arrested! White House Comment On The OPEC Decision And Success of Deutsche Bank | FXMAG.COM The will-he-won't-he saga appears to be nearing a conclusion, but it is not over the finish line yet. Market participants and investors look to be doubting the deal if the latest share price movements are anything to go by. Twitter is trading at under $50 now at $49.30 this morning in Friday's premarket. That is a near 10% discount to the offer price of $54.20. Given the deal is due to close shortly, that is a larger-than-usual deal approaching the finish line. Usually, merger arbitrage players would be all over such a discount so near to closure, but this deal has been clouded in uncertainty from the start. Extra caution is obviously being taken in valuing the probability of the deal going through. Twitter stock news Always the risk in writing about this one is that the news changes dramatically and quickly, but the latest appears to be that the Twitter trial date to try and force Elon Musk to go through with his purchase has been delayed to allow the deal to go through by October 28, according to the judge. That appears to be good news. "This action is stayed until 5 PM on October 28, 2022, to permit the parties to close on the transaction," wrote Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick of Delaware's Court of Chancery. The judge also said if the deal does not close by then, a trial date in November will be set. Various media sources carried news earlier on Thursday that Elon Musk's team had attempted to delay the trial on Thursday, but Twitter responded: "Twitter opposes Defendants' motion...The obstacle to terminating this litigation is not, as Defendants say, that Twitter is unwilling to take yes for an answer. The obstacle is that Defendants still refuse to accept their contractual obligations." Twitter Stock Price - "Technical analysis does not really apply to a merger arbitrage situation" The TWTR stock price is obviously volatile as a result of all this contrasting news and is likely to remain so. Will the deal get finished, and if so when? The risk-reward diminishes near the strike or take-out price of $54.20. Technical analysis does not really apply to a merger arbitrage situation. Twitter stock daily chart
Analysis Of Tesla: A Temporary Corrective Rally Should Not Come As A Surprise

Tesla's China Sales Hit Record And Selloff In Treasuries Continue

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 11.10.2022 11:42
Risk sentiment is morose this week with the escalating tensions in Ukraine, rising Covid cases in China, mounting tensions between US and China, the selloff in US and other treasuries, the relentless appreciation in the US dollar and the drop in safe haven currencies. Situation on forex market The Swiss franc lost ground against the greenback and the USDCHF rose above parity. The Japanese yen continued its historic fall as well, the dollar yen advanced to 145.80. Gold fell for the fifth day to $1660 per ounce, and is set to dive deeper toward the $1600 level on the back of a relentless rise in the US yields and the dollar. And the US yields press higher on the back of hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing, despite a couple of less hawkish comments from some Fed members at the start of the week. Marcoeconomy events The US 2-year yield advanced to 4.35%, and activity on Fed funds futures price 77.5% chance for a 75bp hike at next FOMC meeting. Even the UK yields shot higher despite the Bank of England’s (BoE) announcement of more measures to calm down the Truss-hit gilt market. At least, the avalanche of bad global news has been successful in pulling oil prices lower yesterday. The barrel of American crude eased to $90 this morning, after having flirted with $94 a barrel on Monday. US earnings season kicks off in a dark and depressed environment. According to data from FactSet, the EPS growth of the S&P500 companies should fall by 2.6% to below 10% in the Q3. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:34 Ukraine war, rising Chinese Covid cases & US-China tensions 1:48 Chip stocks do poorly 2:33 Even safe havens are not safe 4:22 And selloff in Treasuries continue at full speed 5:50 Oil bounced lower 6:51 Earnings probably grew slower in Q3 7:32 BoE tries hard, but Truss govt is just… a disaster 9:10 Tesla's China sales hit record! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Ukraine #Russia #war #China #Covid #chip #stocks #Nvidia #AMD #Tesla #earnings #season #Fed #BoE #USD #GBP #gilt #intervention #Gold #XAU #CHF #JPY #crude #oil #Bitcoin #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
The Australian Market Has Seen Growth | Mercedes-Benz Launches New EV

Podcast: Decline In Tesla And China is Europe's rival?

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 17.10.2022 14:17
Summary:  Today we look at Friday's whipsaw turnaround in equities after the bizarre Thursday rally, as the heart of earnings season lies dead ahead and the world's most traded stock, Tesla, has dumped to a new low for the year just ahead of its Wednesday earnings call. We also discuss Chinese leader Xi's speech over the weekend and whether Europe is set to declare China an economic rival, as well as watching for the ongoing fallout for semiconductor companies after the Biden administration moved to limit semiconductor tech transfer to China. The latest in FX, individual stocks to watch and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-17-2022-17102022
📈 Tech Giants Soar, 💵 Dollar Plummets! Disney-Charter Truce, Wall Street's AI Warning!

Netflix, Tesla (TSLA) And ASML Kick Off The Earnings Season

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 18.10.2022 23:11
Summary:  The Q3 earnings season will not get much help from the financials, energy, and technology sectors as all three sectors are facing headwinds and US financial earnings last week and Bank of America yesterday have proven this hypothesis. Tonight Netflix will kick of the earnings season for the technology and media segment of the market with focus on input costs and its upcoming ad-tiered business model. Tomorrow, two giants from Europe and the US will report earnings in the form of ASML and Tesla with the latter being extremely important for US equity sentiment among technology and growth stocks. Q3 earnings will get no help from financials and energy The earnings season is slowly kicking into gear this week. Major US financials have already reported Q3 earnings with Bank of America surprising yesterday against estimates and delivering better results compared to a year ago against its peers. As we have written many times, we expect the Q3 earnings season to show margin compression and that earnings will be under pressure. The chart below shows the quarterly EPS for the S&P 500 financials sector showing that earnings are down 2% q/q and 9% y/y, and with weak earnings q/q from the energy and technology sectors it will be difficult to lift aggregate earnings in Q3. Netflix headwinds persists The video streaming giant Netflix reports earnings tonight after the US market close and analysts expect revenue growth of 5% y/y and EPS of $2.22 down 23% y/y as rising input costs are pressuring Netflix’s business. The strong demand during the pandemic has disappeared, competition has increased significantly, and content production has been weak running at higher costs than estimated. The key upside factor for Netflix is the new ad-tiered business model which will enable a new revenue stream and reduce the risk of subscribers cancelling their subscriptions due to the cost-of-living crisis. The semiconductor party is coming to an end for ASML ASML, the world’s largest and most important semiconductor equipment manufacturer, reports Q3 earnings tomorrow morning before European trading opens. Revenue growth is expected to decline to just 1.6% y/y from 35% y/y in Q2. While we believe ASML will meet expectations for operating income and revenue we are more worried about orders as the ongoing tensions between the US and China over semiconductors are negatively impacting the industry. The US has imposed several export restrictions on semiconductors and equipment to China and the full-speed realignment of semiconductors will hit industry growth in the short-term. We have recent seen negative outlook on semiconductors from Samsung and Micron Technology. As the ninth largest European publicly listed company this earnings release will be important for sentiment in European equities. ASML share price | Source: Saxo Tesla is confronted with lithium issues and high electricity prices There is probably not a more important stock than Tesla when it comes to sentiment in the technology and growth segments of the equity market. The EV-maker reports Q3 earnings tomorrow night after the US market close. Estimates are looking for revenue growth of 61% y/y and EPS of $1.02 up 106% y/y as EV adoption has accelerated this year despite supply constraints, price hikes on EVs and high electricity prices. Tesla recently missed estimates on Q3 deliveries and the main focus will be on lithium supply and prices, and to what extent it is impacting Tesla’s margins. We are also curious to see Tesla outlook given the high electricity prices. Car sales has recently stabilised in the US and Europe, and in China growth is coming back. However, the news flow from Chinese EV-makers has recently been negative and that might be a warning sign on the outlook. Tesla has moved from being a premium brand to an average brand when judged on average selling price as Tesla is now firmly in at the same average price as Ford and GM in the US. Its gross margin when factoring out R&D costs of cost of goods sold for other carmakers is also only the 11th best. The question remains whether Tesla can continue to command a high equity valuation, but as the fifth largest publicly listed company in the US this earnings release is the most important earnings release this week. Tesla share price | Source: Saxo Source: Earnings Watch Netflix ASML and Tesla | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Asia Market: Exports In Indonesia Are Likely To Continue To Grow, Chinese Interest Rate Decision Ahead

Australia Has A Growing Number Of Business Insolvencies | Chinese Concept Of Regulating The Way Wealth Is Accumulated

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 20.10.2022 10:42
Summary:  The major US indices, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 fell on weaker-than-expected company news, Putin clearing martial law, and more hawkish Fed comments. 10-year US bond yields hit 4.14%, its highest since July 2008 which boosted the US dollar against every G-10 peer. Netflix, the standout performer up 13% following their mostly better-than-expected results. Tesla shares slid after hours on weaker-than-expected 3Q results. AU jobs data disappoints, putting the focus back on the AUD and banking shares. Across the Asia Pacific, all eyes are on energy and oil stocks after the Crude oil price lifted 3% on EIA warnings. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) fall on weaker than expected company news, Putin clearing martial law & hawkish Fed comments US stocks fell on the backfoot after a two-day rally, with the 10-year US bond yield hitting 4.136% in the session, which is its highest level since July 2008, while 2-years rose to the highest since 2007. That in turn boosted the dollar, which rallied against every G-10 peer. Gold dropped. It comes as Fed speakers warned US inflation continues to surprise to the upside, saying there’s no reason to think key price measures have peaked. Over in UK and Canada CPI came in stronger than expected in September, up 10.1% year on year (YOY) and 6.9% YOY respectively, ensuring the Bank of England and Bank of Canada keep on hiking rates.  Earnings enthusiasm faded with backup generator manufacturing Generac (GNR) shares sliding 25% on slashing its full year sales outlook. While community bank M&T (MTB) shares crumbled 14% on the company reporting weaker than expected results. On the upside, oil stocks charged with Baker Hughes (BKR), Valero Energy (VLO) and Halliburton (HAL) up over 5% each. While Netflix (NFLX) was the stand out performer up 13% following their mostly better than expected result released the day prior as we mentioned here.  S&P 500 dropped 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 slid 0.4%. 10 of the 11 sectors of S&P 500 declined with the notable exception of Energy, which rose 2.9%. 10-year U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) jumped to 4.13% Higher-than-expected U.K. inflation prints, hawkish comments from Fed’s Bullard and Kashkari, poor results from the 20-year treasury bond auction, and corporate bond supply contributed to an around 13bp rise in yields across the curve. The 2-year yield rose to 4.56% and the 10-year surged to 4.13%, both reaching new highs. The 20-year auction was awarded at 2.5bps cheaper than the market level at the time of the auction, indicating poor demand. Corporate bond issuance amounted to around USD15 billion and added to the upward pressure on yields. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIV2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index fell 2.4% by mid-day, as China Internet stocks reversed the bounce in the past two days, falling by 4% to 7%, and local property developer names paring early gains as the relief for extra stamp duties for non-resident home buyers in the maiden Policy Address of the Hong Kong Chief Executive is less extensive than expected. Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016:xhkg) dropped 3.6% and New World Development (00017:xhkg) tumbled 7.8%. Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388:xhkg), falling 2%, reported a 30% Y/Y decline in EPS in Q3, slightly better-than-feared. EV stocks tumbled, with Xpeng (09868:xhkg) falling 9.5% and other leading names losing by 4% to 7%.  Tanker and dry bulk operator COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (01138:xhkg) soared more than 10%. In mainland bourses, the CSI300 fell 1.6%, with Consumer Staple and Consumer Discretionary sectors being the worst performers, falling over 3%. While all major sectors in the CSI300 declined, lithium battery makers, shipping, and coal mining companies gained. Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1), focus is on bank and energy stocks It’s worth keeping an eye on banking stocks particularly regional banks that could see more volatility, like Suncorp (SUN), Bendigo and Adelaide (BEN) and Bank of Queensland (BOQ). Also, today focus will be on oil stocks like Santos (STO), Woodside Energy Group (WDS) and Beach Energy (BPT) after the oil price darted ahead. Japanese yen flirting with 150, GBP facing political hurdles There is a lot of sense of “urgency” in the Japanese officials as USDJPY continues to flirt with the 150 handle. The surge higher in US yields overnight is likely to further pressure the yen, and FinMin Suzuki’s comments this morning on taking appropriate steps to curb speculative moves still suggest they stand ready to intervene if USDJPY rises above 150. Meanwhile, the rebound in the US dollar weighed on G10 currencies, with GBP suffering despite a pick up n BOE rate hike bets after the higher than expected UK CPI print, as political turmoil continued to weigh. Three officials left the office yesterday, including the Home Secretary and Chief Whip, although there were reports later that some of them will remain in post. Meanwhile, the fight for Truss to stay in office continues. GBPUSD testing the downside at 1.1200. USDCNH climbed to as high as 7.2790 The Chinese offshore yuan weakened to as much as 7.2790 this morning and is trading at around 7.2680 as of writing. Higher U.S. bond yields, sell-offs in Chinese stocks, concerns over a harsher line on income redistribution in China, and reports about talks on the joint production of weapons between the U.S. and Taiwan weighed on the yuan.  Gold (XAUUSD) slumps as the dollar momentum returns Gold prices heading lower to test the support at $1620/oz amid risk aversion and higher Fed bets propelling US yields higher and a rebound in the US dollar. Hawkish Fed speak yesterday, together with fresh highs in UK CPI, suggested higher-for-longer inflation and interest rates, while demand for the yellow metal also remains depressed due to ongoing lockdowns in China.  Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) in focus again following EIA warnings Oil extended gains rising 3.3% to $85.55 after EIA earlier reported US crude stockpiles dropped by 1.73 million barrels last week. Four-week seasonal demand for distillate fuels soared to the highest since 2007 while inventories remained at the lowest point on record for this time of year.  What to consider? Fed speakers further up the hawkish ante James Bullard and Neel Kashkari kept up their hawkish Fed rhetoric, in light of the burgeoning global price pressures. Bullard warned that inflation continues to surprise to the upside and the Fed needs to continue to act, also emphasising higher-for-longer rates even if inflation starts to decline in 2023. Kashkari (2023 voter) added that there is no reason to think that key price measures have peaked, and he sees little evidence of a labor market softening. He also reiterated the Saxo view that “risk of under shooting on rate hikes bigger than overdoing it”. He also said his best guess is the Fed can pause hikes sometime next year but he favours rate hikes until core inflation starts to cool, noting the Fed's rate changes take a year or so to work through the economy. Chicago Fed President Evans was also on the wires this morning, and given that he’s retiring next year, he was accepting of the fact that “beginning rate hikes six months earlier would have made sense.” UK CPI comes out hotter than expected, Euro headline inflation more subtle UK inflation came in at double-digits again, matching the 40-year high in July, at 10.1% y/y. This puts further pressure on the Bank of England to go big with its rate hike at the November meeting. Price pressures were broad-based, but most notable was the increase in food price. Scaling back of aid for electricity and natural gas prices, as suggested by the latest fiscal measures announced by Chancellor Hunt, could fuel further inflationary pressures next year. Eurozone headline inflation, on the other hand, was revised lower to 9.9% for September from flash reading of 10.0% but core measure rose to 5.8% y/y from 5.2% y/y in August, coming in at a record high. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 75bps at the October 27 meeting. Tesla shares slide after hours on reporting weaker-than-expected results Tesla (TSLA) shares fell 2.7% after hours when the EV giant reported third-quarter sales falling short of analyst estimates, noting the US dollar’s growing strength, along with production and delivery bottlenecks impacted results. Tesla’s Revenue rose to $21.5 billion, versus $22.1 billion expected by Wall Street. Profit rose to $1.05 a share, exceeding the $1.01 average Bloomberg estimate. And the closely watched Q3 automotive gross margin, came in at 27.9%, missed the 28.4% expected. Tesla cited higher costs related to a slower-than-expected ramp up in output at new factories, as well as difficulties shipping vehicles. Tesla’s shares are down almost 45% from their high against the backdrop of a slowing economy, higher inflation and rising interest rates, plus Musk’s $44 billion bid to buy Twitter. For more on Tesla click here to read Peter Garnry’s note. Discussion between the U.S. and Taiwan on joint weapon production According to Nikkei Asia, the Biden administration and Taiwan are in talks for American defense companies to provide Taiwan technology to manufacture weapons in Taiwan or to ship Taiwan-made parts to make weapons in the U.S. This, reading together with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s warning this Monday that “a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline” and President Biden’s remarks of deploying U.S. forces to defend Taiwan in a CBS 60 Minutes interview last month, stirred up some unease among investors. Separately on Wednesday, Taiwan conducted live-fire military drills on Penghu Island, an archipelago in the Taiwan Strait. Investors are feeling unease about the introduction of the concept of regulating the means of accumulated wealth in China in an official document in China Market chatters show some investors are feeling unease about the phrase “we will improve the personal income tax system and keep income distribution and the means of accumulating wealth well-regulated” in the Work Report delivered by General Secretary Xi at the Chinese Communist Party’s National Congress last Sunday. The concept of regulating the means of accumulating wealth (规范财富积累机制) shows up in an official document for the first time. Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee unveils his plans for active industrial policies and integration into national development schemes In his maiden Policy Address, Chief Executive John Lee unveils a Steering Group on Integration into National Development to devise strategic plans to integrate Hong Kong’s economy into the mainland’s Greater Bay Area development scheme and the Belt and Road Initiative. Li also rolls out investment-led measures aiming to boost the Hong Kong economy, including setting up a Hong Kong Investment Corporation which will establish and fund an HKD30 billion public-private co-investment fund to invest in projects that potentially drive industry development in Hong Kong. Hong Kong will also establish the Office for Attracting Strategic Enterprises whose mandate is to attract business enterprises from the mainland and overseas through favorable tax, financing, land provision, and other incentives. Weaker yen to prop up Japan inflation further Japan’s inflation data for September is due for release on Friday, and as signalled by the Tokyo CPI released earlier this month, price pressures are likely to pick up further. Bloomberg consensus expects the core measure (ex-fresh food) to come in at 3.0% y/y from August’s 2.8% y/y while the core-core measure (ex-fresh food and energy) is expected at 1.8% y/y in September from 1.6% y/y previously. The headline is expected to be a notch softer at 2.9% y/y from 3.0% y/y, but still remain way above the 2% target level. Weakness in the yen prompted an intervention from the Bank of Japan in September but the effect faded fast and the currency was significantly weaker in the month, which possible led to import price pressures. Still, the central bank is unlikely to shift its easing stance and will likely continue to wait for the global pressures to ease and USD to top out.       Aussie unemployment rises. Employment falls Traders digested much weaker than expected jobs data for September. Data released today showed just 923 jobs were added to the economy, much weaker than the 25,000 jobs Bloomberg estimated to be added. It also shows employment is falling ahead of RBA’s expectations, with less jobs added to the Australian economy, following last month’s 33,500 jobs being added. Also in important news; the unemployment rate rose by less than 0.1 percentage points, but remained at 3.5% in rounded terms. The reason for this is because rate rises and rising inflation is having a greater impact on the corporate world with the RBA also noting business insolvencies are rising in Australia.   For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-20-oct-20102022
Tesla Does Not Say Much Directly About The Demand Situation, Ally Financial Sees A Slowdown In Car Loans

Tesla Does Not Say Much Directly About The Demand Situation, Ally Financial Sees A Slowdown In Car Loans

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 20.10.2022 11:15
Summary:  Investors are used to Tesla beating estimates but last night the EV-maker surprised investors missing revenue and automotive gross margin estimates as the EV-maker faced battery constraints during the quarter and delivery transportation capacity during peak deliveries at the end of the quarter. While the company disappointed against estimates revenue growth was still impressive 56% y/y and the company is reiterating its 50% average growth target over the coming years, something analysts are not agreeing with seeing revenue growth declining to 14% in 2025. The physical world is tough on Tesla Tesla shares are down 5% in extended trading following Q3 results showing revenue of $21.5bn vs est. $22.1bn and adjusted EPS of $1.05 vs est. $1.01. Q3 automotive gross margin came in at 27.9% vs est. 28.4%. Tesla says that battery supply constraints remain the key limiting factor on deliveries and scaling up the production; Tesla also mentions that ramping up production of its new battery 4680 cells has proven to be more difficult. In addition, delivery transport capacity was a limiting factor on deliveries in Q3 and the EV-maker is working to smooth this process going forward. While investors are reacting to the lower than expected revenue growth and gross margin, Tesla is doubling down on its 50% average growth rate target. Back in April, CEO Elon Musk said that the company would deliver 1.5mn cars this year so with around 930,000 deliveries as of the first nine months, the EV-maker must delivery 570,000 cars in Q4 which would be an increase of 86% y/y which seems like a very high bar to climb given the recent quarters growth in deliveries and the constraints mentioned above. Looking at analyst estimates for revenue the analyst community does not buy the 50% growth story as revenue growth is projected to fall from 57% in 2022 to 14% in 2025. Tesla is not saying much directly on the demand situation as it relates to the current volatility and high prices on electricity which could slow down the transition to electric vehicles. Earlier today, Ally Financial which is one of the biggest US lenders of auto loans said that it sees a slowdown in auto loans and the company also missed estimates. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/tesla-misses-on-gross-margin-and-reiterates-lofty-goals-20102022
Analysis Of Tesla: A Temporary Corrective Rally Should Not Come As A Surprise

Results Of Tesla, Netflix And Snap Do Not Seem To Be Affected By The Spectre Of Recession

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 22.10.2022 08:40
In the world of macro data this week, the market was able to take a break from central banks' decisions on interest rate changes. On Tuesday, we had the results of the German economic sentiment index, which turned out to be more positive than expected at -59.2 points (forecast -65.7 points). Further down, however, are the low levels last seen during the crisis in 2008. Macro Data Wednesday saw the release of CPI inflation results for the Eurozone and the UK, among others, which were close to market expectations at 9.9% (forecast 10%) and 10.1% (forecast 10%), respectively. The data showed that inflation still seems to be breaking records.  Finally, of the key macroeconomic data, the number of new applications for unemployment benefits filed in the United States was positive, falling to 214,000 (forecast 230,000).   There is an estimation that the rising global inflation and the non-worsening labour market may not change the monetary policy stance from central banks. As it was mentioned in the morning's commentary on the bond market: "Looking at the chart of the quotation of the ETF with the symbol AGG, someone could see that since the peak in August 2020, the price of a unit of this fund has fallen by more than 20 percent [...] Nevertheless, presently, until the peak in US interest rate hikes is reached, this market may continue to be under pressure." Source: Conotoxia MT5, AGG, Weekly Stock Market The current week has been in terms of the earnings season for the third quarter of this year, particularly reported results from the banking sector, most of which reported positive earnings per share (EPS) results than expectations. Among others, Bank of America Corp. (BankofUS) EPS 0.81 (forecast 0.77), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) EPS 8.25 (forecast 7.69), or Blackstone Inc. (Blackstone) 1.06 (forecast 0.99). This could be a positive sign, because as the stock market saying goes, "there is no bull market without banks."  Surprising for analysts were the results of Tesla (Tesla), Netflix (Netflix) and Snap (Snap), which do not seem to be affected by the spectre of recession. The giant, which sells electric cars, improved net income to $3.33 billion (forecast $1.65 billion), revenue growth jumped 55 percent year-on-year, and earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.05 (forecast $0.99). Netflix surprised with its first increase in subscriptions since the beginning of the year, which may have pushed its stock price up more than 10 percent at the opening of Wednesday's session.  Source: Conotoxia MT5, Netflix, Weekly In the social media market, one of the first reports was presented by the owner of Snapchat, whose y/y revenues did not seem to show significant change. Investors seem to reacted negatively, however, after the number of users of the Snapchat app appears to have fallen for the fifth consecutive quarter.Source: Conotoxia MT5, Snap, Weekly Currency Market In the absence of a decision on interest rate changes this week,  someone  could see no significant changes in the currency market. The EUR/USD pair continues to hover below parity at 1.00. Recall that these are values previously seen more than 20 years ago. Noticeably weakened the Japanese yen against the US dollar (USD/JPY) piercing the level of JPY 150. The question of possible intervention by the Bank of Japan is beginning to arise, as the exchange rate of this currency pair has risen by more than 30 percent since the beginning of the year. For the British pound, on the other hand, more uncertainty may continue, due to political developments. The recent rise in the GBP/USD pair came after the resignation of the British Prime Minister from office. Source: Conotoxia MT5, GBP/USD, Weekly The earnings season continues next week? Next week on Wall Street will be packed with the publication of reports from well-known companies. On Tuesday, Google will present quarterly results along with Coca-Cola or Microsoft. On Wednesday, there will be a report from Apple, which recently decided to cut orders for the new iPhone due to falling demand. Facebook will also present results on that day. Online retail giant Amazon will present its report on Thursday, October 27, along with McDonald's and MasterCard.  In addition, next week we could expect, among other things, the ECB's decision on interest rates in the Eurozone, CPI inflation in Germany and GDP results in the United States. In addition, at the end of the week there will be a meeting of the central Bank of Japan (BoJ), where it is possible that the topic of possible intervention in the foreign exchange market or a change in the range for Japanese bond yields would come up. The results of Tuesday's consumer mood report from the United States (CB Consumer Confidence) may seem interesting.    Grzegorz Dróżdż, a Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The Recent Rally Of Bitcoin Had Been Capped, The Digital Yuan (eCNY) Has Received Upgrades

Tesla's Losses After $1.5 Billion Invested In Bitcoin

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.10.2022 11:24
Crypto Industry News: According to Tesla's latest Q3 earnings report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the electric vehicle manufacturer has revealed that it has invested a total of $1.5 billion in Bitcoin since early 2021. Of this amount, the company now has a $170 million unrealized loss resulting from the change in the fair value of its investment. This is offset by a $64 million profit on Bitcoin profits at various times in the past two years, leading to a net loss of $ 106 million by the end of the third quarter. Tesla's losses, however, did not significantly affect the company's core business. The electric vehicle manufacturer's profits grew 169% year-on-year from $3.3 billion in the first nine months of 2021. However, the company only has around 218 million in Bitcoin on its balance sheet. According to the law, digital assets are considered intangible assets with an indefinite useful life. Consequently, any decline in their fair value will require Tesla to recognize an impairment loss, while the company does not make upward adjustments for any price increases up to the point of sale. Under this favorable tax treatment, losses can be deducted from profits to reduce tax liability, while capital gains are not taxed until sale. Technical Market Outlook: After the BTC/USD pair made the market made a Shooting Star candlestick pattern at the level of $19,678, the market reversed and is consolidating around the local trend line. The nearest technical support is seen at $19,248 and $19,078, however, the target for bears is the swing low and range low seen at the level of $18,150. The supply zone located between the levels of $20,221 - $20,580 (marked as a red rectangle) is very important for bulls from a technical point of view, because only a sustained breakout above it would change the outlook to more bullish, so please keep an eye on this zone for a possible breakout towards the next target seen at $22,410. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $20,025 WR2 - $19,682 WR1 - $19,461 Weekly Pivot - $19,340 WS1 - $19,119 WS2 - $18,997 WS3 - $18,655 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout in the long term.     Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298195
Bank Of England Will Probably Be Unable To Avoid A Significant Easing Of Policy

British Sovereign Bonds | Tech Giants Will Announce Earnings (Google And Microsoft)

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 25.10.2022 11:59
After both Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt pulled out of the British PM race, Rushi Sunak cried victory on Monday afternoon, and markets cried ‘Ready for Rishi’. The new UK Prime Minister The British sovereign bonds posted one of the biggest gains on record, the 10-year gilt yield tanked 8.50%, the 30-year yield dived 8.40%, sterling gained. Investors loved seeing Sunak become the new UK Prime Minister, they, however, hated seeing Xi Jinping confirm a third term. NASDAQ Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon China index lost more than 20% yesterday and closed the session more than 14% down. Direxion’s FTSE China Bear times 3 ETF jumped almost 30% in the session. Macro data On macro, the PMI data revealed yesterday did little good to the mood in Europe. The composite PMI fell to 47.1, which is the lowest level since April 2013. In the US, the services sector saw a sharp, and an unexpected decline to 46.6, from 49.3 printed a month earlier, and 49.6 expected by analysts. Japanese core CPI advanced to 2% versus 1.9% expected by analysts. The dollar-yen trades touch below the 149 mark after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened to slowdown the depreciation in yen. US tech giants In the corporate space, two big US tech giants are due to announce earnings: Alphabet and Microsoft. Their revenues are expected to have slowed in the latest quarter, but how much of the slowdown is already priced in? Walking into the results, it’s important to remember that soft results don’t necessarily mean negative market reaction. If the soft results still beat the market estimates, we could see Google, and Microsoft shares rally. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:39 Markets are ready for Rishi! 2:52 …but not for Xi. 4:32 PMI data disappoint 6:00 Japanese inflation advance 7:25 Google earnings preview 9:07 Microsoft earnings preview 10:20 Option traders bet for Tesla below $200! Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Google #Microsoft #earnings #UK #PM #Rishi #Sunak #GBP #USD #JPY #BoJ #ECB #China #XiJinping #selloff #Tesla #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5  ___  Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
John Hardy to FXMAG: The UK economy faces significant head-winds from supply side limitations

We Know The Successor Of Liz Truss | Asia's Economy Is Plummeting Into Public Debt

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 25.10.2022 11:12
UPS reports its positive results. Negative news is pouring in from Asia. And also we met the new UK prime minister. In this article: The next UK prime minister Summary of Q3 Electric-vehicle market Asia’s economic outlook FedEx problems Rishi Sunak to become the next UK prime minister CNBC Now tweets about the new prime minister of UK BREAKING: Rishi Sunak set to be Britain's new prime minister as rival Penny Mordaunt drops out https://t.co/sNXCUoAvtq — CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 24, 2022 Rishi Sunak is set to become Britain’s new prime minister, succeeding Liz Truss who resigned Thursday. Liz Truss was the shortest reigning prime minister in the UK, the current situation has surpassed her. After Liz Truss' resignation, there were voices that Boris Johnson would again take over the British government. But as we know, these were only false guesses. Current information that Sunak will take over this position. He will not become prime minister immediately because, according to the ritual, the outgoing prime minister, in this case Truss, must first resign in favor of King Charles. After that, the king will appoint another prime minister, Sunak, in the coming days. The question is whether the new prime minister will cope with the challenges that await him and restore stability to the British economy? UBS results UBS in its tweets shares the results for the third quarter. Particularly noteworthy is the tweet with the statement by CEO Ralph Hamers. Hear from our CEO Ralph Hamers on the progress we made over the third quarter as well as the trends we saw for client activity. pic.twitter.com/OjEAeb5WeV — UBS (@UBS) October 25, 2022 UBS Group AG, as an international investment bank and financial services company, enjoys popularity and high profits. Along with the end of a certain period, in this case of the third quarter, the company summed up its achievements. The situation on the markets is diversified, and the observation of new trends may prove very helpful for the functioning of the instance. In the author's post, you can find out about the situation of UBS, which can affect its prominence and positions in financial services. Toyota and electric-vehicle Reuters Business tweets about electric-vehicle. On @Breakingviews: Toyota is mulling its third electric-vehicle reboot in 13 months. Frequent rejigs can mean bigwigs are flailing for ideas. But its latest overhaul implies boss Akio Toyoda is addressing missteps with more speed, says @AntonyMCurrie https://t.co/ayxtHq1ZAC pic.twitter.com/OuHPhkGTLQ — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 25, 2022 There is no doubt that electronic vehicles have become something desirable. Many car manufacturing companies try to modernize their products. One of them is Toyota, which is trying to match the giant in the production of electronic cars, Tesla. Some people may take away from trying to look for new ideas, and for some it means growing their business. Public debt in Asia has increased The IMF in its post addresses the topic of economic problems in Asia. Amid Asia’s dimming economic outlook and rising inflation, public debt has risen substantially in Asia over the past 15 years—particularly in the advanced economies and China. https://t.co/gDWrrRU0uD pic.twitter.com/YvJDzyAM7c — IMF (@IMFNews) October 25, 2022 Economies around the world struggle with the problems of rising inflation and its negative impact on the functioning of economies. China as Asia's largest economy is also struggling. Despite yesterday's positive results (Read more : Growth In China's Trade Balance. Significant Declines In Major Sectors Of Europe And Great Britain| FXMAG.COM), there is a bigger problem of public debt. Public debt is growing rapidly, which means that the governments of Asian countries are indebted to power. Despite positive reports, such a situation may have negative consequences for the economy. This may mean that a financial crisis is approaching, and as we know from history, dealing with this problem can be laborious and very expensive. Companies face problems Bloomberg Terminal tweets about the market loses of the FedEx shipping company. FedEx lost $11 billion in market value last month, wiping out two years of stock gains, after it pulled its forecast, feeding into fears of a global demand slowdown.https://t.co/OthLH3tipw — Bloomberg Terminal (@TheTerminal) October 24, 2022 The economic slowdown and rising inflation affect the situation of shipping companies. The prognosis is not very good. FedEx and UPS expect to see dramatic drops in US and global shipments. Which will have a negative impact on the financial result of these companies, and thus may cause a reduction in employment.
Tesla Does Not Say Much Directly About The Demand Situation, Ally Financial Sees A Slowdown In Car Loans

Investors Are Worried That Elon Musk Is Losing His Focus | The Eurozone Recession Can Dampen Investors’ Hopes

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 08.11.2022 09:40
Summary:  Markets are trying to build some positive energy as the volatility in the US treasury market has eased in recent days, although Fed tightening expectations remain near the peak for the cycle ahead of another important CPI release on Thursday, certainly the macro event of the week. Today is mid-term election day in the US, where the Republicans are expected to take back at least the House of Representatives.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities gained 0.8% pushing above the 3,800 level and the 50-day moving average. The resistance level is up at around the 3,900 level with the 3,724 level being the short-term support level to watch. For US equities the biggest event to watch is today’s Midterm elections in the US which could change the political landscape in favour of the Republicans flipping the House. But for years polls have been terrible in predicting anything on US politics, so we remain neutral on the outcome. The US 10-year yield is advancing to 4.22% adding headwinds on equity valuations. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) The China reopening trade took a pause in Hong Kong and the mainland bourses as domestically transmitted new cases in the mainland doubled to 7,455. Guangzhou, the capital city of the Southern Guangdong province reported 2,377 new cases and launched mandatory testing in 9 of the 11 districts of the city and extended the lockdown of Haizhu district to Friday. Hang Sang Index fell 0.7% and CSI300 dropped 1.3%. FX: USD near important support ahead of Thursday’s US CPI The US dollar traded in a narrow range yesterday, with EURUSD near parity this morning after trading solidly above yesterday, but not yet threatening the 1.1094 pivot high from late October. Elsewhere, GBPUSD has traded briefly above 1.1500 but is still bottled up below the key range high above 1.1600, while AUDUSD is closer to the cusp of a break-out as it has traded as high as 0.6491, just shy of the 1-month pivot high of 0.6522 and the AUD likely keying off developments in China (hopes for an easing of Covid restrictions, commodities following through higher after last week’s rally, etc.) It feels like the next move for the greenback will key off the Thursday October CPI release, as CPI releases have sparked considerable volatility in recent months. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Crude oil remains in consolidatory mode after failing to find additional buying interest during Monday’s temporary break above the October high in Brent at $98.75 and $93.65 in WTI. The themes driving markets remain the same with supply worries driven by OPEC+ production cuts and EU sanctions against Russian oil from December 5 being offset by concerns about the health of the global economy and China’s prolonged battle with Covid with daily infections hitting a six-month high. Despite this latest acceleration in cases, the market has started to price in a lifting of restrictions sometimes early next year, an event Goldmans estimate could add between $6 and $15 upside risks to prices.  Today, the US Midterm elections is likely to steal some of the attention ahead of API’s weekly stock report tonight. Meanwhile, US natural gas (NGZ2) futures soared beyond $7/MMBtu on cold weather fears in the West and the Northeast before trimming the advance overnight. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) The MOVE index, a measure of the implied volatility of the US treasury market, has dipped sharply in recent days, posting its lowest levels since early September, perhaps as the market feels there are few surprises left in store from the Fed now that Fed funds expectations have reached above 5.00% and US yields at the longer end have remained bottled up in the 3.90%-4.30% range. The October US CPI release on Thursday is the next test for the US treasury market. What is going on? Bank of Japan affirms easy policy, but not without some mention of a future exit The Bank of Japan released summary of opinions of the October policy meeting today, broadly reaffirming the easy monetary policy stance. Still some members stuck a slightly different tone, noting that Japan's inflation likely to remain fairly high as there are signs service prices starting to rise, and “cannot rule out chance prices will sharply overshoot forecasts.” Still, sustained wage gains remained the base case for Japan to achieve its price target and members agreed that there was no immediate need to tweak monetary policy. Importantly, one member noted that the Bank of Japan must continue examining how a future exit from ultra-low interest rates could affect financial markets, in a rare mention of an exit. Tesla shares hit the lowest level since June 2021 Tesla shares were 5% lower yesterday as investors are getting more nervous about CEO Elon Musk intense focus on Twitter after he acquired the social media platform. Many advertisers have pulled back on advertising on Twitter leaving the company losing around $4-5mn a day with sizeable debt due. Investors are worried that Elon Musk is losing his focus but also that he will be forced to sell Tesla shares to fund Twitter operations. Nintendo still sees strong demand for Switch The gaming company lifts its FY net income projection to JPY 400bn from previously JPY 340bn on strong demand with the company seeing little impact on its sales from global inflation. Big slump in Australian business and consumer confidence Australia’s consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level in 2.5 years and business confidence also weakened as higher interest rates and surging inflation stoke caution over the economic outlook. NAB business confidence plunged to 0 from 5 in September, while the Westpac consumer confidence index was down to 78 for November from 83.7 previously. This bodes ill for spending ahead, suggesting RBA’s caution on rate hikes may continue to prevail despite the continued hot CPI reports. The Eurozone Sentix Index improved substantially, albeit from a awful level The Eurozone Sentix Investor confidence index was out at minus 30.9 in November versus 38.3 in October. This is a strong improvement. But the index was actually at its lowest level last month since March 2020. The other components increased too. The current situation improved to minus 29.5 while the expectations index jumped to minus 35.5. The uptick is clearly not a reversal trend. This is more of a rebalancing. Investors were too pessimistic in recent months regarding the evolution of the European energy crisis. The risk of energy rationing was overestimated, for instance. High gas storage and better weather will help avoid this nightmare scenario. This does not mean that the improvement in the Sentix index will continue, however. The eurozone recession will likely dampen investors’ hopes.  U.S. used car prices continue to move lower According to the Manheim index, used car prices continue to crash, with a year-over-year change at minus 10.4 % in October. This is the worst drop since December 2008. This matters because until the summer used car prices were one of the main contributors to U.S. inflation. Cryptocurrencies The crypto market is in negative territory today after growing concerns about the liquidity of the crypto exchange FTX - specifically tied to its hybrid investment fund/market maker Alameda Research. The selloff in cryptos was partly triggered by the nosedive of the FTX token, which together with the Solana token makes up a notable portion of Alameda's balance sheet. What are we watching next? US mid-term elections today Pundits suggest that the Republicans have very strong odds of flipping the House of Representatives in their favour, while the odds look finely balanced for whether the Senate ends retaining the slim Democratic majority or moves to Republican control, which would only require one more Republican seat. There are few immediate ramifications if Republicans take both houses, as US President Biden has the presidential veto, but a stronger than expected Democratic showing that somehow sees them retaining the House and strengthening their Senate majority would be a game changer – opening for more policy dynamism (and inflation from fiscal stimulus) from the US over the next two years rather than the expected lame-duck presidency. The latter is a very unlikely scenario, but uncertainty is high as pollsters have had a hard time gathering accurate polls, especially for specific states, for every election since Trump’s victory in 2016. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Walt Disney which is expected to deliver revenue growth of 15% y/y but also significant margin pressure with gross margin expected at 32.5% the lowest Q1 2021. EPS is expected at $0.51 down from $0.91 in Q2. Monday: Westpac Banking, Coloplast, Ryanair (see earnings review above), Activision Blizzard, BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, SolarEdge Technologies Tuesday: Bayer, Deutsche Post, KE Holdings, Nintendo, Walt Disney, Occidental Petroleum, Lucid Group, DuPont Wednesday: National Australia Bank, KBC Group, Genmab, Siemens Healthineers, E.ON, Adidas, Honda Motor, Coupang, Rivian Automotive, Roblox, DR Horton, Trade Desk Thursday: Brookfield Asset Management, Fortum, Engie, Credit Agricole, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, SMIC, Nexi, AstraZeneca, ArcelorMittal, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Becton Dickinson, NIO Friday: Richemont Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – UK Bank of England’s Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak 1100 – US Oct. NFIB Small Business Optimism 1600 – UK BoE’s Pill to speak 1700 – EIA's Monthly Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) 2030 – API Weekly Report on US Oil Inventories 0130 – China Oct. PPI/CPI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-8-2022-08112022
China: PMI positively surprises the market

Podcast: China Is Set To Ease Up On Its Covid Restrictions, Eyes On The USA

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 08.11.2022 11:53
Summary:  Today we look at markets as we await US elections today and the US CPI data print on Thursday, all while everyone has very twitchy trading fingers on hopes that China is set to ease up on its Covid restrictions. We also discuss the simultaneous decline in bond market and equity market volatility and ask which asset class might be more attractive. Equity sentiment has improved sharply and is near six-month highs. In commodities, we zero in on nat-gas, gold, cocoa and coffee. Stocks to watch, including Tesla, upcoming earnings from Disney and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-nov-8-2022-08112022
Tesla Will Struggle To Recover In The Coming Years

Tesla Will Struggle To Recover In The Coming Years

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.11.2022 14:00
Shares of Tesla Inc. fell by more than 6.0% yesterday, forcing analysts to revise their price targets. Considering the situation the company is in now, analysts now believe Tesla stock would need to rise by a whopping 80% to reach its median analyst target price. Shares of the company, which is headed by Elon Musk, have already fallen by 52% this year to $167.87, well below analysts' projections of a 12-month average price of $302. This year's downturn has brought Tesla's market capitalization down to just $530 billion, a far cry from the $1 trillion valuation it had in April. Right now, the company is facing multiple challenges due to renewed quarantine measures in China, which are again paralyzing supply chains. Furthermore, Musk has shifted his focus to Twitter Inc. This is compounded by rising commodity prices and buyers being pressured by inflation and rising interest rates. Despite this, many analysts stick to their optimistic forecasts: 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg recommend buying the company's shares, 11 recommend holding them, and seven recommend selling them. The most optimistic forecast sees Tesla stock reaching a price of $530. However, it's clear that shares of many companies, including Tesla, will struggle to recover in the coming years, especially given the Federal Reserve's ongoing policy. Premarket movers Currently, Tesla has added 1.54% during the premarket, but that gain is very precarious. Shares of Zoom declined by 8.9% in premarket action due to weak fourth-quarter outlook, despite the videoconferencing company beating earnings and revenue expectations. Technology giant Dell gained as much as 6% after the company exceeded third-quarter earnings per share estimates, which stood at $2.30 after adjustments, about 44% above the $1.60 expected by analysts. Shares of clothing company Urban Outfitters added 2.6% after it reported higher-than-expected revenue growth in the third quarter of 2022. Earnings per share narrowly missed expectations. However, Urban Outfitters lost 1.96% at the end of the previous trading session. Shares of Agilent jumped by 4.1% after the consumer electronics company beat expectations for per-share earnings and revenue in the fourth quarter. On the technical side, the S&P 500 remains in a sideways channel after yesterday's rather quiet trading session. The main goal for bulls right now is to defend the support level of $3,942. As long as the index will remain above this level, demand for risky assets should remain. This will allow the instrument to increase and regain $3,968 and $4,003. Above it lies the level of $4,038, a breakout of which make a further upward correction towards the resistance at $4,064 more likely. The most distant target is $4,091. If the index breaks below $3,942, it will quickly drop to $3,905. From there it could test the support at $3,861. A breakout below this level will quickly push the trading instrument down to $3,905, and it will also allow the index to test the support at $3,861.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 12:00 2022-11-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/327818
The Social Phenomenon Elon Musk Has Kept The Narrative Around Tesla’s Growth Intact

The Social Phenomenon Elon Musk Has Kept The Narrative Around Tesla’s Growth Intact

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 22.11.2022 15:29
Summary:  Consensus is growing for flat earnings next year but that would suggest the net profit margin staying close to the all-time high and not seeing much pressure. This stands in stark contrast to the wording from CEOs in Q3 earnings releases singling out wage pressures and margin pressure as the biggest threat to earnings. The Q3 earnings figures suggest the margin compression is accelerating and changes in the operating margin is directly associated with the change in earnings over one year. Our base case scenario is negative earnings growth next year and another troublesome year for equity investors. Flat earnings growth in 2023 is a fantasy In several equity notes we have highlighted that the 12-month forward earnings estimate on S&P 500 is too high currently at $235.34 which is 7% above the expected FY2022 EPS of $219.38. There is nothing unusual in this divergence conflicting with reality as sell-side analysts have a natural long bias, which is well described in research papers, and are slow to react and incorporate new information. The fact that the 12-month forward EPS estimate on S&P 500 is only 4% from its recent peak despite the ongoing margin compression says it all. In any case, many sell-side banks are these days publishing their S&P 500 EPS targets for 2023 and there seems to be a growing consensus that we could flat earnings. In our view this is very naïve. Let us explain why. If you take EPS of $220 next year and divide with the expected revenue per share of around $1,800 which fits pretty well with a 1-year lag in US nominal GDP growth, then you get a net profit margin of 12.2% which exactly where the 12-month trailing net profit margin stood at in September (see chart). In other words, this view implies that S&P 500 companies can maintain their net profit margin next year. Before go into the arguments why this is a completely detached assumption it is important to understand why our obsession about operating and net profit margins are so important. If you look at our scatter plot with the 1-year change in operating margin on the x-axis and 1-year change in EPS on the y-axis for the MSCI World we observe a clear association between these two variables. In other words, when looking over a short time period such as one year, the changes in earnings are strongly associated with changes in the operating margin. The variance around the linear fit is a function of revenue growth, interest rates, and the effective tax rate. Okay so talking about earnings in 2023 is essentially a talk about whether operating margins can expand, stay flat, or decline. Our view is that the operating margin will decline next year. Here is why. Companies are constantly talking about margin pressures in their Q3 earnings related to especially wage pressures and to some extent still commodities and energy costs. The fact that the Q3 net profit margin in S&P 500 is 11.9% (below the 12-month trailing figure) and trending lower suggests that margins are coming down faster than expected. The operating and net profit margin are both coming off historically high levels and margins are a mean reverting process, so this alone indicates that margins will trend down from current levels. Wage growth in the US and Europe is the highest in many decades and the main concern of CEOs as wage compensation is typically the biggest cost item for many companies. Whenever you observe outlier data points an investor and analyst should apply the precautionary principle and high wage growth is difficult to offset in an inflationary environment when recent price hikes by companies have now reached a point where they are destructive for volume growth (Home Depot being a recent example of this). Another downside risk to EPS next year is that revenue growth could be lower than current estimates as nominal GDP growth is coming down to 6.7% annualised in Q3 down from the average 12.2% annualised in 2021. On top of this, higher interest rates will increase drive financing costs higher. Not by much because only 20% of the outstanding debt is getting refinanced over the next 12 months, but it will still subtract from operating income before we reach EPS impacting the net profit margin. If we are right about our operating margin call for 2023 then the impact on S&P 500 will vary depending on the equity risk premium (P/E ratio), revenue growth and the actual net profit margin. In our recent equity note Investors should not wish for an average equity market we go through the sensitivity on the S&P 500 related to these variables. Tesla concentration could spark a domino effect on US equities Back in early 2021 we wrote several equity notes (here and here) describing the big overlap in positions among investors holding Tesla share, cryptocurrencies, and the Ark Innovation ETF. Another common red thread in this ‘risk cluster’ is that the common investor in these instruments is young men with ultra-high risk tolerance. Since early 2021 the sequence has been that first Ark Innovation ETF topped out, then cryptocurrencies and Tesla topped out in late 2021. This year cryptocurrencies have collapsed and with the recent bankruptcy and fraud at the crypto exchange FTX amplifying the risk and downside moves in cryptocurrencies. Tesla has hold the line as the social phenomenon Elon Musk has kept the narrative around Tesla’s growth intact. However, a recent mass recall of cars in the US and China’s difficulties to kickstart the economy have left investors worrying about the growth outlook. Supply constraints on batteries and generally high commodity prices, soaring energy costs, and chip shortages have constrained production for Tesla. To top it all up, Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter has pulled him into the vortex of saving the company as his decisions have scared advertising turning Twitter from a cash flow positive business to a cash burning platform with an increasing existential risk for the social media company. Investors are also beginning to worry that Musk’s behaviour on Twitter and priorities are clouding his focus and maybe even tarnishing his brand, which ultimately could spill over into the Tesla brand. Tesla shares were down 7% in yesterday’s trading and thus is a clear source of risk coming into the market with Tesla being a big position in many retail investors’ trading account. Tesla share price | Source: Saxo   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/earnings-outlook-2023-and-the-evolving-tesla-risk-22112022
Bank of England Faces Rate Decision: Uncertainty Surrounds Magnitude of Hike

After This Holiday Rally, You Better Know When To Walk Away

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 23.11.2022 16:46
This week's investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year. We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold. Let's dive in. We're told that "quitters never win." But is it always wise to stick with something when it no longer serves us — or worse, continues to harm us? Many years ago, when Texas hold'em poker was big and online gambling was allowed in Canada, I used to run a poker league and build custom poker tables for people across the United States and Canada. I love poker, and I still play it to this very day, but the game does require skill, a proper mindset, and self-discipline. Without all three of these things, poker is pure gambling. It's the same when it comes to active trading or investing if you lack the skills, mindset, and self-discipline. Retired professional poker player Annie Duke, who is also a best-selling author, and decision strategist who advises seed-stage Startups, says that learning when to quit is a critical skill, especially for investors. Annie states, "Quitting is a good thing when applied at the right time." If you've been following me for any time, then you know I follow a detailed trading strategy with position and risk management rules. As a result, you won't find me taking random trades or trading based on emotions. Instead, you'll find me patiently waiting on the sidelines for a high-probability trade signal to reinvest my capital. I trade differently. I don't diversify. I don't buy-and-hope, and I don't have any positions at certain times. What I do is reinvest in assets that are rising in value. And when a particular asset stops moving higher, I give up on the position and exit it immediately. Because I use technical analysis to follow price action, we can quickly and easily determine if an asset is rising or falling. Therefore, I can step aside and let the asset fall and look for a new opportunity that is rising, or hold the falling position and ride it lower for who knows how long… Unfortunately, most traders and investors do not understand how to read the markets, or they don't have control of their money. They are at the mercy of what the market does or the skills of whoever controls their capital. Let me share some of my market insight and help guide you On October 21st, I stated that retirement accounts should bottom and rally into the end of the year. Bonds were hitting 11-year lows. In short, anyone holding 20+ year treasury bonds had just lost more than ten years of investment growth wiped out.  Bonds, the highly touted safe, low-risk asset, fell over 47% from the 2020 high. It caused similar losses to the average investor portfolio comparable to the 2008 financial crisis. It was the worst selloff ever for treasury bonds that I can see on my charting platform. The real kicker is that the selloff in both stocks and bonds could have been avoided with just a little education and management. Subscribers and I happened to ride the COVID bond rally higher by 19%, exited the position, and moved to cash the day bond prices topped. It was partly luck to exit at the peak, but we would have exited the following trading session if we didn’t lock in profits because we managed our positions and risk. As the price reversed direction, we jumped shipped to one of my favorite positions, which almost no one thinks about or uses – CASH. 2022 has been a painful year for investors, and people are telling me they are scared to look at their investment statements. It now looks like bonds and stocks have started a seasonal rally that could help lift your portfolio as we head into the end of the year, but once it ends, look out! Bonds and Stock Seasonality Price Movement Daily Chart of 60/40 Portfolio You should have seen your account rally 6% or more since Oct 21st, and I think it will continue higher once the market digests the recent move up. While this may excite you, be aware that after this rally, we could see another 20-47% decline in stocks and bonds in 2023. This year-end bounce is nothing more than an opportunity to get out of the antiquated Buy-and-Hope strategy that does not work during a volatile and weakening economic environment. The next few charts, which are big heavyweight stocks that drive the market higher and pull it lower, should help you see what I see.  AAPL Weekly Chart and Potential Breakdown Apple is a heavyweight stock. When it moves, it moves the stock market. Currently, AAPL shares are in what I call a STAGE 3 Distribution phase, and if support is broken, then look out below! TSLA Weekly Chart and Potential Breakdown Tesla shares are another heavyweight, and its weekly chart paints a bleak future for holders. META (Facebook) Weekly Chart Breakdown Leads The Way Down Facebook, or what is now called META, is a heavyweight stock that has already broken down from its STAGE 3 Distribution phase. As you can see, when these mega stocks break down and unwind, individual investors who have their money managed by so-called professionals who don’t know how to manage risk suffer the most. The drop in META shares has held the tech, social, and even the S&P 500, and Nasdaq from rallying freely to the upside in the past month. When/if AAPL, TSLA, and other heavyweights break down, expect panic on Wall Street. My general rule of thumb is if someone tells you to diversify into a bunch of different assets, stocks, commodities, bonds, crypto, etc… then they don’t know what they are doing. They are a buy-and-hold believer and willing to let their own money or that of their clients experience the severe price swings the market dishes out. – Billionaire investor warren Buffet says, “Diversification makes very little sense for those who know what they are doing.” – Multimillionaire investor Jim Rogers said, “Diversification is something that stockbrokers came up with to protect themselves, so they wouldn’t get sued for making bad investment choices for clients, and that you can go broke diversifying.” The Four Stages Of Asset Prices If you think the 2022 pullback has been distressing, you better buckle up because the bear market has not even technically started yet, from my standard. Instead, in early 2023 we should enter a STAGE 4 Decline. This is when people's financial future and retirement lifestyles are created or broken, depending on how it's managed. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the market will fall in 2023. I’m letting you know it's very possible, and you best have a plan in place. On the other hand, if the markets have some miraculous recovery and start a new bull market, well, you better have a plan for that also. Either way, you need a plan, and if you are a technical trader who follows price and manages positions, it doesn't matter what the market does; we are set either way. S&P 500 Bear Market Expectations 2023 The S&P 500 chart shows the extreme low that we could possibly reach if the economy and stock market fully unwind. Bonds would sell off as well until the Fed decides to step in and starts lowering the rates to try and save investors, but there will be a delay, and bonds will likely fall sharply before we see that take effect. CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:In short, without going off too much on a rant, you can read the three lies we are told by financial professionals that really IRK me. Because of these lies, individual investors must work harder, work longer and experience painful financial outcomes. What you may not know is that what you went through in 2008, the 2020 crash, and this year's correction could have been completely avoided. If you followed a NO BS investing method that tracks price using technical analysis, is simple to follow, and is uber-conservative, then your account would be sitting at a new all-time high watermark as of this week. The financial industry tells us to do all the wrong things, and almost everyone falls for the BS; it's so frustrating to watch! LIE #1: Diversify, Diversify, Diversify LIE #2: Bonds Are A Safe Investment And Should Represent A Large Portion Of An Investors Portfolio LIE #3: Speak With An investment Broker Or Advisor Before Placing Any Trade To Be Sure It Is Suitable For Your Personal Circumstances.  It's total baloney because almost everyone gets the same generic advice, buy-and-hold stocks and bonds, don't give up on it, ride out the rollercoaster, and you will be fine, trust me… Who came up with that strategy? Sure, my 10-year-old son could buy some stocks and bonds once, let it ride for 20-30 years, and be ok. He has time and not that much money, but the big question is at what age does the stock and bond, buy-and-hope strategy become a harmful and risky investment strategy? 50-ish years of age is my thinking. Knowing bear markets can take 3-12 years to recover from, someone who is 50+, planning to retire soon, or is already retired, doesn't have 10+ years to keep working and saving to avoid withdrawing funds from their retirement account. Also, the fact that they have the most wealth ever in their lifetime, they should be concerned about holding through future bear markets.  Don't be fooled. Just because everyone else has been brainwashed to buy-and-hold, aka buy-and-hope, and suffers stock market selloffs does not mean you should…  It's like the average investor has Stockholm syndrome. They have all been beaten up by the markets over and over again. They think that's how it should be. And in some cases are paying someone to take their money, plop it into the market, and do nothing with it for 10 - 40 years. They pay a % of their life savings each year to someone who has no risk and does not need to do too much of anything, while the investor suffers massive multi-year drawdowns, experiences high levels of stress, and sometimes big losses. The typical investing experience most people endure is NOT how it should be. There is a better way, and I can show you. My passion is trading and investing, having been at it for over 25 years. My goal is to help as many investors as possible to preserve their capital during difficult times and also be able to grow their wealth by trading only the most liquid ETFs. My investing strategy signals allow individuals to only hold assets that are rising in value.
At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

American Stocks Rallied, USD Drop | Tesla Rallies On Citi

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 24.11.2022 09:40
US stocks spent most of yesterday’s session hesitating between slight gains and slight losses, then the release of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes helped the bulls take the upper hand, as the minutes confirmed that a ‘substantial majority’ of Fed members thought it was a good idea to slow down the pace of the rate hikes. Stocks The S&P500 gained around 0.60% while Nasdaq jumped around 1%. The US 10-year yield eased, as the US dollar sold off quite aggressively across the board. Economy We saw a decent price action yesterday was oil, and that was well before the Fed minutes. The barrel of American crude dropped up to 5% yesterday on news that the Europeans would set the price cap for Russian oil to around $65 to $70 per barrel, levels at which Russian oil is already exchanged. Tesla and Morgan Stanley On individual stocks, Tesla was one of the biggest gainers of yesterday’s session as Citi and Morgan Stanley revised their views higher, but that rally was maybe… exaggerated. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:21 Fed minutes send stocks higher, USD lower 4:11 Crude oil tanks on EU’s new Russian oil price cap 5:55 Foxconn living a nightmare in China, but Apple holds on 6:32 Tesla rallies on Citi, Morgan Stanley upgrades Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #FOMC #minutes #USD #crudeoil #EU #Russia #price #cap #EUR #GBP #ECB #minutes #Thanksgiving #holiday #Tesla #rally #Apple #Foxconn #China #Covid #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
BOC Rate Hike Odds Rise to 28.8% as Canada's Economy Shows Resilience

Employees Of Amazon Are Planning Protests On Friday

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.11.2022 08:00
There are no statistical releases scheduled for Friday. In this case, the session will be shortened and will end at 21:00 GMT+2. In this regard, trading activity is likely to be lower than usual on the holiday-thinned market. On Thursday, the exchanges did not work because of the public holiday, Thanksgiving Day. Meanwhile, a number of important indicators will be published in the near future, including revised data on US GDP for the third quarter as well as data on the labor market for November. In addition, the country begins the season of active shopping before the holidays. Dow Jones Industrial Average by 18:02 GMT+2 increased by 0.4% and reached 34,333.97 points. Among the components of the index, the top gainers were Home Depot Inc, up 1.8%, UnitedHealth Group up 1.4% and 3M Co. - by 1.2%. The value of the Standard & Poor's 500 by this time increased by 0.06% - up to 4029.69 points. At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 0.39% since the market opened and amounted to 11,241.63 points. Stock quotes for retailers Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. decrease respectively by 0.2% and 0.8% at the beginning of trading. Amazon.com Inc. price fell 1.1% on reports that employees at the online retailer's warehouses around the world, including the US, Germany and France, are planning protests on Friday demanding higher wages. Shares of Ford Motor dropped 0.3% on news that the company is recalling more than 634,000 SUVs worldwide due to malfunctions. Tesla's value is 1.2% down. The company announced that it is recalling about 80,000 electric vehicles in China due to problems with software and seat belts. In addition, Apple Inc. papers are trading lower, having decreased - by 1.6%, Nike Inc. - by 0.6%, Intel Corp. - by 0.5%. At the same time, the share price of Chevron Corp. has grown by 0.3%. According to media reports, the United States is preparing to grant this company a license to produce oil in Venezuela. Chevron will regain partial control of oil production in Venezuelan fields, in which the company has retained stakes through joint ventures with state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 03:00 2022-11-29 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302664
Commodities Outlook 2023: Stainless Steel Is Still Key For Nickel Semand

Iron Ore Shipments Could Continue To Fall And Hurt Earnings And Shares

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 28.11.2022 09:06
Summary:  Dramatic scenes of widespread protests in China against Covid policies there have pulled sentiment lower, with US yields dipping to new local lows and crude oil prices pushing on cycle lows even after Friday’s drop. The USD has firmed against most currencies, but the Japanese yen is stronger still as the fall in yields and energy prices support the currency. This is a sudden powerful new distraction for markets when this week was supposed to be about incoming US data.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures failed to touch the 200-day moving average in Friday’s trading retreating slightly into the weekend. This morning the index futures are continuing lower bouncing around just above the 4,000 level. The US 10-year yield declining to 3.65% with the 3.5% level being the likely downside level the market is eyeing is naturally offering some tailwind for equities in the short-term. However, the key dynamic to get right now in the medium term is the potential earnings recession caused by margin compression as the economy slows down and wage pressures remain high. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets retreated as investors were wary about the surge in daily new Covid cases across China and the outburst of anti-strict-control protests in several mega cities, including Beijing and Shanghai. The cut in reserve requirement ratio by the central bank on Friday evening did not give the market much of a boost. Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 plunged more than 2% each. The China internet space fell 2%-5%. Macao casino stocks bucked the trend and rallied following the Macao SAR Government’s announcement to renew casino licenses with all incumbent operators. Wynn Macau (01128:xhkg) jumped nearly 16%. The three leading Chinese catering chains listed in Hong Kong gained 4% to 6%. USD and JPY firm overnight as Chinese Covid protests drag on risk sentiment The US dollar was higher overnight against most currencies even as US treasury yields hit new cycle lows as widespread protests in China against the Covid policies there are weighing heavily on risk sentiment. Hardest hit among G10 currencies has been the Aussie, with AUDUSD trading back below 0.6700 after pulling above 0.6780 at one point on Friday. USDCNH jumped above the important 7.200 level. The hit to yields and perhaps lower crude oil prices are driving a strong revival in the Japanese yen, which traded higher even against the US dollar overnight, taking USDJPY back toward the recent lows overnight. This is a sudden new distraction for FX traders, when this week was supposed to be all about the incoming US economic data, including the October PCE inflation data up on Thursday and the November jobs data on Friday. Crude oil plunges as China unrest rattles markets A weak sentiment spread across commodities as markets opened in Asia with crude oil, copper and iron ore all trading sharply lower following a weekend that saw waves of unrest in China, the world's biggest consumer of raw materials. Protest and boiled up frustration against President Xi’s increasingly unpopular anti-virus curbs erupted over the weekend, raising the threat of a government crackdown. While the short-term demand outlook may take a hit and add further downside pressure to prices, the eventual reopening is likely to be supported by massive amounts of stimulus. The market is also watching ongoing EU price cap discussions, next week’s OPEC+ meeting and rollout of an embargo on seaborne Russian crude and Chevron receiving a license to resume oil production in Venezuela. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold trades unchanged with safe haven bids in bonds and the dollar offsetting each other, while silver (XAGUSD), due to its industrial metal link, trades down more than 2% following a weekend of covid restriction protests across China. After finding support in the $1735 area last week, a break above $1765 may signal a return to key resistance at $1788, but lack of ETF buying still makes it hard to confirm a major change in direction. Aside from China, the market will be watching incoming US data for any signs of a slowdown in the pace of future rate hikes (see below) US treasuries find safe haven appeal, driving new local lows in yields. (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) The risk-off mood overnight is driving strong safe haven flows into US treasuries, as the 10-year benchmark traded to new local lows below 3.65%, with little room left to the pivotal 3.50% level. The 2-10 yield slope hit a new cycle extreme of –80 basis points overnight, a deepening indication of an oncoming recession. The 3-month treasury bills vs 10-year treasury notes spread went to minus-64bps, a level usually seen within 12 months preceding the onset of a recession. For a detailed discussion of our take on the outlook of bonds, please refer to this note we published last Friday. This week, interesting to see how the market balances the implications of what is unfolding in China versus incoming data in the US, especially the November jobs report on Friday. What is going on? Protests against Covid lockdowns in several Chinese cities Anger over suspected delays to rescue from a deadly fire burst into anti-lockdown protests in Xinjiang. After a fire at a locked-down apartment killed 10 people, hundreds of angry residents in Urumqi, Xinjiang took to the street to protest against the Covid lockdown imposed more than three months ago. Meanwhile, daily new cases shot up to a record high of 40,052, with Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Shanghai significantly tightening movement restrictions. Video footage and photos on social media showed that protests against Covid restrictions sprang up in several other cities over the weekend, including Wuhan, Nanjing, Beijing, and Shanghai. China’s PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25bps The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reduction of 25bps for all banks except for some small which had already had their RRR cut to 5% earlier. The weighted average of RRR across all banks falls to 7.8% from 8.1% after the latest move. The PBOC projects that the reduction in RRR will make available to banks an additional RMB400 billion. The 25bps cut this time, the same as the cut in April this year, was small by historical standards when 50bp or 100bp cuts seemed to be the norm. It helps improve banks’ funding costs, but it may do little to boost the economy as the demand for loans is subdued. The U.S. bans telecommunications equipment from China’s Huawei, ZTE and more The U.S. Federal Communications Commission said on Friday that the U.S. had decided to ban the import and sale of telecommunication equipment from China’s Huawei Technologies, ZTE, Hytera Communications, and surveillance equipment makers Dahua Technology and Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology. The U.S. regulator said these Chinese telecommunication equipment makers pose “an unacceptable risk” to U.S. communication networks and national security. RBA’s Lowe still sees a strong demand; but retail sales turned negative The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe appeared before the Australian parliament's Senate Economics Legislation Committee and said that demand is still too strong relative to supply. He said he is unsure about labor market, and wage growth is consistent with inflation returning to target. He was worried about housing supply and expects to see rental pressure over the next year. Australia’s October retail sales, however, dipped into negative territory for the first time this year, coming in at -0.2% MoM vs. expectations of +0.5%. Chevron gets US license to pump in Venezuela Chevron had been banned from pumping due to US sanctions against the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. But WSJ reported that on Saturday, the US said it will allow Chevron to resume pumping oil from its Venezuelan oil fields. The shift may open the door to other oil companies that had operated previously in Venezuela, despite the near-term headwinds and the massive investments that may be needed. Bullard and Powell speak – pushback against easing financial conditions? While the economic data continues to slow, and markets continue to cheer on that, it will key for Fed members to bring the focus back to easing of financial conditions and consider what that means for inflation. Chicago Fed national financial conditions index eased further in the week of November 18, bringing financial conditions to their easiest levels since May. Most of the Fed members that have spoken since that soft CPI release for October have pushed back against pivot expectations, but it hasn’t been enough. Further pushback is still needed if the Fed is serious about bringing inflation under control, and only the most hawkish members of the committee Bullard and Powell may be able to deliver that. Both will be on the wires this week. Bullard speaks on Monday while Powell discusses the economic outlook and labor market on Wednesday. Other Fed members like Williams, Bowman, Cook, Logan and Evans will also be on the wires. Commodity companies exposed to China are vulnerable for further pull backs This week focus is on companies exposed to China, given forward earnings are likely to be downgraded following further China lockdowns and protests. Be cautious that investors could be looking to take profits or write options for downside protection in commodity exposed equites. Also note, on Friday fresh data showed that the major iron ore companies, BHP, Rio, Fortescue, are likely to be shipping almost 6% less than last year, in the final quarter of this year, and if lockdowns worsen, iron ore shipments could continue to fall and hurt iron ore majors' forward earnings and shares. On Monday in Asia, the iron ore (SCOA) fell 1.6% dragging down shares of ASX listed BHP, and Rio Tinto, who both lost about 1%+. What are we watching next? Weighing the sudden new intrusion of the Chinese protests story versus incoming US data The recent narrative has been that markets have room to celebrate the downward shift in Fed tightening expectations and hopes that an eventual opening up of China’s economy will help boost global growth. The widespread protests at the weekend have changed the plot, driving new uncertainty on how things will develop and possibly outweighing a considerable portion of the implications of the next important data macro data points out of the US, especially the Friday November jobs report. As well, we’ll have a look at the ISM Manufacturing survey for the month on Thursday. The situation in China aside (which it won’t be), the question for the run-up into the December 14 FOMC meeting and in the month or so beyond is how long the market can continue to celebrate the Fed easing off the accelerator, when the reason it is doing so is that economic slowing and an eventual recession threaten. Normally, a recession is associated with poor market performance as profits fall and credit risks mount. Apple production risk is on the rise. The protests in China and the unrest around Apple’s largest manufacturing hub for its iPhone could lead to a production shortfall of close to 6mn iPhone Pro which was a Morgan Stanley estimate and was published before the intensified issues at the Apple manufacturing site. Earnings to watch 98% of the S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 earnings reducing the earnings release impact from US equities. But European and Chinese companies are still reporting although the volume of earnings releases is also getting lower. Key earnings release to watch today is Pinduoduo which is expected to grow revenue by 44% y/y with EBITDA margin expanding to 21.2% as their online marketing revenue and uptake remain strong despite the slowing Chinese economy. Monday: Pinduoduo, Capitaland, H World Group Tuesday: Li Auto, DiDi Global, Bank of Nova Scotia, Intuit, Workday, Crowdstrike, HP Enterprise, NetApp, Shaw Communication Wednesday: Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada, Salesforce, Synopsys, Snowflake, Splunk, Hormel Foods, KE Holdings Thursday: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Bank of Montreal, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Marvell Technology, Veeva Systems, Ulta Beauty, Zscaler, Dollar General, Kroger Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1400 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1530 – US Nov. Dallas Fed Manufacturing 1700 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 1700 – Us Fed’s Bullard (voter 2022) to speak 2330 – Japan Oct. Jobless Rate/Retail Sales Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-28-2022-28112022
It Was Possible That Tesla Would Move Closer To Resistance

Shanghai: Production of Tesla cut, because of reduced demand

FXStreet News FXStreet News 05.12.2022 16:29
Tesla is cutting production by 20% at its Shanghai factory. The move will mostly involve Model Y production. The production cut is due to a demand shortfall. TSLA stock drops 4.7% on Shanghai news.   Tesla (TSLA) stock gave up 4.7% in Monday's premarket after Bloomberg reported that its Shanghai factory would trim record production by 20% due to sluggish Chinese demand. Shares of the leading electric vehicle maker dropped to $185.75 on the news. At the same time most of the US futures market is down in the premarket. Futures for all three major indices, the Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, are off close to 0.5%. Tesla stock news: Model Y production clipped The news out of Shanghai caught investors off guard, because until now Tesla had been undergoing a global ramp up in production. These included plants in Berlin and Austin, Texas as well. The Shanghai production cut is said to be caused by a reduction in that market's demand. Due to frequent covid-related shutdowns across China this year, the economy there appears to have pulled back quite a bit. Demand has shrunk even while Tesla has been ramping up production there to an all-time high. In November Tesla reported deliveries just under 100,300 vehicles. Cutting back to 80,000 units a month is still quite a substantial figure, and Bloomberg sources said it would be easy to ramp back up once demand returns. Reports say the cut will primarily focus on Model Ys. Earlier news accounts said that Tesla had finally exceeded Chinese demand in November for both Model Ys and Model 3s. Waiting times between customer order and final delivery for both models are said to be way down compared with earlier in the year. Source: CnEVPost Tesla can of course export vehicles produced at the Shanghai plant, and it does do this. In fact, that is normally the course of action. Tesla Shanghai spends the start of each quarter producing vehicles for export and then spend the latter half producing for the domestic market. In October, for instance, 54,504 vehicles were exported, and just 17,200 vehicles were delivered there in China. Tesla should produce more than 1 million vehicles at the Shanghai factory in 2023. In other news the European Union's Trade & Technology Council has vocally implied that it may challenge parts of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) at the World Trade Organization. Members of the EU regard certain features of the IRA as protectionist since only US-based companies can receive the many tax breaks for going green that the legislation allows. A primary target of EU member countries are the EV tax credits. In order for a consumer to be eligible for a $7,500 tax credit on a new EV, the vehicle must be assembled in North America. "There is a risk that the Inflation Reduction Act could lead to unfair competition, could close markets and fragment critical supply chains," said President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. "We must take action to rebalance the playing field... to improve our state aid frameworks. In other words: We need to do our homework in Europe and at the same time work with the US to mitigate competitive disadvantages." Tesla stock forecast With the latest setback, TSLA stock is once again experiencing resistance at the $200 level. Last Thursday Tesla stock nearly cleared $199 before selling off and closing lower. In order to make a run at late October and early November's swing high at $234, bulls first need to reconquer the $200 level, which is suddenly seeming to be a difficult task. Nearby support at $180 and $167.50 should both offer some confidence in the mean time. The 9-day moving average also found a base of support recently at the $180 level before moving higher. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still shows that a rally is on, so it is quite possible that an unknown catalyst (Tesla Semi?) arrives in the headlines later this week and works to rally the troops for another try at $200. TSLA 1-day stock chart
Analysis Of Tesla: A Temporary Corrective Rally Should Not Come As A Surprise

Tesla And Plans To Lower Production At Its Shanghai Factory

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 06.12.2022 08:49
Summary:  Equities falter with Fed gaining power to keep hiking vs RBA nearing the end of its path, coal stock surge. Here is what you need to watch in markets in this six minute video         US equites fell on the back foot on Monday, falling for the third day The pull back in US stocks was largely fuelled by the US economy’s service gauge unexpectedly rising, fuelling speculations that the Fed can keep hiking interest rates and keep policy tight. As such, in a typical risk off fashion, the 10-year bond yield jumped almost 11 bps to 3.59%, which helped push up the US dollar up against board, with the yen sliding 1.8%. Money is essential being taken off the table ahead of Friday’s US producer prices report, which will be one of the final pieces of data  Fed officials see before their December 13 meeting. 95% of the S&P500 stocks closed underwater, with all major sectors all in the red. The S&P500 fell 1.8%, moving further away from its 200-day average; with the technical indicators flagging another potential pull back could occur.  While the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.9%, almost wiping out last week’s rally as tech stocks are the most sensitive to rate hikes as they are deemed expensive, with a PE ratio of over 40 times earnings. As for big sock moves in the US; Tesla tumbled and airlines rallied Tesla shares fell 6.4% on reports its plans to lower production at its Shanghai factory, as China’s demand isn’t meeting expectations. Tesla shares are now down 53% from their high and what’s keeping their shares at this level is that the raw material costs are still high, for example the price of lithium is back at record highs, and the market consensus suggests earnings growth will remain at near the 20% mark. As always, there were pockets of green, United Airlines shares gained 2.6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the airliner on expecting 2023 travel to be a ’goldilocks’ year with earnings to pick up. In commodities moves Oil pulled back 3.8% as the US dollar rallied, gold plunged 1.6% as the USD and bond yield rose, and iron ore (SCOA) fell 1.7% but held onto its fresh highs of $106.50. Australia’s share market rally halts, metal prices head lower, coal stocks surge RBA decision ahead The Australian benchmark index, the ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) today is lower on Tuesday, following global markets; with selling in oil, gas, and gold stocks dragging down the market. As a result the ASX200 stumbled from its seven month high on expectations the Fed might keep rates higher for longer, which is also why interest rate sensitive stocks such as Block (SQ2) are in the loser board, down 5.3%, taking its year to date loss to 51%. While on the upside, coal stocks such as New Hope Corp (NHC) are up 2% with Whitehaven (WHC) up 1.2% supported higher by the coal Newcastle futures price head back toward its record all time high, on expectations coal demand will pick up. The major focus in Australia is on the outcome of the RBA meeting today At 2.30pm Sydney time, Australia’s central bank is expected to hike rates by 0.25% for the third straight month, which will take the cash rate from 2.85% to 3.1%. Focus will be on RBA commentary potentially ending its rate hike cycle, given Australian households have the highest debt to income ratios in the world; with indebted households highly vulnerable of tightening, with loan arrears and insolvencies increasing. Look for colour in the RBA statement that may allude to the RBA pausing rate hikes in early 2023. Lenders in Australia, Commonwealth Bank (CBA), ANZ (ANZ), Westpac (WBC) and National Australia Bank (NAB), as well as Suncorp (SUN) and Bank of Queensland (BOQ) will be on watch as they have been experiencing smaller profits as the property market is at breaking point with mortgage holders under stress. However, note,  insurance companies are continuing to benefit from higher rates. Insurance company QBE Insurance (QBE) is trading up 9.2% this year and is a buy side analyst favorite. For more Australian buy side analyst favouities, click here. If the RBA mentions a potential rate hike pause, you could expect banks to rally as well as REITs. For a list of Australian REITs, refer to Saxo’s Australian REIT stock basket.   For a weekly look at what to watch in markets - tune into our Spotlight.For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Video: Equities falter with Fed gaining power to keep hiking vs RBA nearing the end of its path, coal stock surge | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The RBA Raised The Rates By 25bp As Expected

The RBA Warned It Sees Inflation Increasing Over The Months | Tesla Shares Are Now Down

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 06.12.2022 09:45
Summary:  Markets were surprised yesterday by the strength of the November US ISM Services survey, which suggests a fresh increase in services activity from the October level as opposed to the deceleration expected. In response, US yields rebounded all along the curve, the US dollar rose sharply, and risk sentiment rolled over again, suddenly threatening key areas in the main US index that were taken out on the way up recently.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures gave up most of their gains from Wednesday last week closing just above the 4,000 key level. The rejection of the move above the 200-day moving average suggests to us that the conviction is low at this stage of the rally and if we see a breakdown below the 4,000 level then the 100-day moving average down at the 3,936 level is the next pivot point to watch. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIZ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong stocks pulled back following overnight weakness in the U.S. market and the uncertainty in the Fed’s ability to slow down in its pace of hiking interest rates after recent data indicating strength in wage inflation and business activities in the U.S. services sector. Hang Seng Index lost 1.3% while the CSI 300 was 0.3% higher. The rapid surge in the Hong Kong dollar money market interest rates recently also weighed on Hong Kong stocks. USD rebounds on hot ISM Services report, wilting risk sentiment The US November ISM Services survey cam in far stronger than expected, inspiring a fresh surge in US treasury yields, if a relatively modest one, and a significant rebound in the US dollar as risk appetite rolled over. The USD reversal is particularly interesting from a technical perspective as it came after support had broken in a few important USD pairs. EURUSD, for example, has been pushed back below 1.0500 this morning after an attempt on 1.0600 yesterday and after clearing the prior cycle high. USDJPY has surged above 137.00 after touching below 134.00. A more comprehensive reversal of the recent USD sell-off, however, would require EURUSD back below 1.0400 and USDJPY back above perhaps 139.00, with the key oncoming event risk next Tuesday’s November US CPI print and the FOMC meeting the following day. Gold (XAUUSD) took a tumble on Monday ...and following the failure to break above $1808, the August high, it reverted lower to a challenge recently established lows in the $1765 area. The turnaround was triggered by unexpectedly strong US services data adding renewed pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. Total holdings in bullion backed ETF’s suffered a large 13.7 tons reduction on Monday, and it highlights golds continued dependence on the dollar and yields to provide support, and once they fail to do so, selling emerges. Focus on Friday’s PPI report and liquidity which is likely to start drying up, thereby raising the risk of volatile price action ahead of year-end. Silver meanwhile tumbled 5.6% on Monday and has now returned to challenge support at $22.25 Crude oil (CLF3 & LCOG3) traded sharply lower on Monday ...after supportive micro developments such as restrictions on Russian sale of oil and China easing Covid restrictions were offset by a broad shift lower in risk sentiment after stronger than expected US data lifted the dollar and bond yields while sending stocks lower. For now, the price action remains stuck in a ten-dollar range with no clear short-term direction emerging. The market is undoubtedly going through a soft patch regarding demand with Saudi Arabia lowering its official January selling prices to Asia while time spreads continues to soften as the spot price falls faster than prices further out the curve. US treasuries rebound on strong US services survey (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) The stronger than expected US November ISM Services survey saw a rebound in US treasury yields all along the curve as the market priced the Fed to edge its policy rate a bit higher next year (peak yield seen hitting 5.00% again) as the 2-year Treasury yield surged over 10 basis points higher and the US 10-year benchmark pulled away from the important 3.50% level, although to suggest a reversal of the recent downtrend in yields, the benchmark yield would need to recover above 3.70-75%. What is going on? US November ISM Services surprises on the upside with 56.7 reading This is an important data point as the services sector dominates US economic activity. The market was looking for another deceleration of activity in November (consensus expectations for a 53.5 reading) after 54.4 in October. Among the sub-indices, the Prices Paid index was sticky at the high level of 70.0 vs. 70.7 in October, New Orders were 56.0 vs. 56.5 in October and Employment was 51.5 after 49.1 in October. Australia’s RBA hikes 25 basis points as most anticipated The hike took the cash rate from 2.85% to 3.1%. The AUD was mixed, rebounding sharply from session lows against NZD but that only came after a further slide late yesterday. The RBA maintained cautious guidance, saying the full effects of rates hikes since May have not been felt yet by the economy, while also declaring employment growth had slowed. As such the RBA said its path to achieving a soft landing is narrow, meaning it might be hard to avoid a recession. This also follows news out of Australia today that its current account fell into a deficit for the first time since 2019. The RBA warned it sees inflation increasing over the months ahead, particularly in wages. It conceded inflation is damaging the economy and is making life more difficult for people. The market only anticipates another 50 basis points of tightening in the coming 12 months from the RBA, as it’s rate peak lags the US Fed’s by nearly 150 basis points. Tesla shares fell 6.4% on reports its plans to lower production at its Shanghai factory ...as China’s demand isn’t meeting expectations. Tesla shares are now down 53% from their high and what’s keeping their shares at this level is that the raw material costs are still high, for example the price of lithium is back at record highs, and the market consensus suggests earnings growth will remain at near the 20% mark. US and Europe considering new tariffs on metal imports from China ...arguing that global overcapacity and carbon-intensive production in China could see the duties assessed on imports of key metals. The story is from Bloomberg, which cited “people familiar” with the situation. What are we watching next? China’s Politburo meeting is a key event to watch Before the Central Economic Work Conference convenes in mid/late December, the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo will meet in early December to discuss economic policies and establish the direction and policy framework for the work conference. Investors will pay close attention to the readout from the Politburo meeting for hints about the macroeconomic policy priorities and how they are balanced with the pandemic control strategy. Expect a modest Q4 contraction for the eurozone Yesterday’s final PMI indicators for November point to a very mild GDP contraction in Q4 in the eurozone (minus 0.1 % or minus 0.2 % in our view). The manufacturing PMI surged marginally to 47.1 from 46.4 in October. The report was rather mixed. The softening of inflationary pressures continues but additional orders are falling once again due to lower client demand at the global level. This was expected. The services PMI was also out in contractionary territory at 48.5 against prior 48.6 in October. This is the exact same number as the flash estimate. This is the lowest level since early 2021. Overall, the services and the manufacturing sectors are more resilient than most expected a few months ago when fears of the energy crisis started to cause panic. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is the homebuilder Toll Brothers which is expected to see revenue growth slow down to 6% y/y in the quarter that in October as the US housing market is drastically slowing down from the interest rate shock in mortgages. While growth is slowing down for Toll Brothers investors will be looking for evidence that margins might even begin expanding as building materials are coming down in price. Today:  MongoDB, AutoZone, Toll Brothers, Ferguson Wednesday: Brown Forman, Campbell Soup, GameStop Thursday: Broadcom, Costco, Lululemon, Chewy Friday: Oracle Corp, Li Auto Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Norway Nov. Region Survey 1330 – US Oct. Trade Balance 1330 – Canada Oct. International Merchandise Trade 1500 – Canada Nov. Ivey PMI 1700 – EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook 2130 – API's Weekly Report on US Oil and Fuel Inventories 0030 – Australia Q3 GDP Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-dec-6-2022-06122022
Tesla (TSLA) slumped 8.88% after the electric-car maker offered a higher discount of $7,500 on Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in the U.S

Tesla (TSLA) fell 3.21%, TripAdvisor (TRIP) slid 6.41%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) dropped 4.71%

Intertrader Market News Intertrader Market News 08.12.2022 09:45
DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 8, 2022             Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views       EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)             Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.             Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,235.00 -42.00 (-0.29%) Read the analysis 14,210.00 14,357.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,481.00 7,526.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,928.75 -8.00 (-0.20%) Read the analysis 3,915.00 3,960.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,475.50 -34.00 (-0.30%) Read the analysis 11,430.00 11,600.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,584.00 -41.00 (-0.12%) Read the analysis 33,470.00 33,760.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 72.75 +0.74 (+1.03%) Read the analysis 71.20 73.50     Gold 1,781.83 -4.442 (-0.25%) Read the analysis 1,790.00 1,776.00             MARKET WRAP       Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Wednesday, U.S. stocks still lacked upward momentum. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed flat at 33,597, the S&P 500 declined 7 points (-0.19%) to 3,933, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 52 points (-0.45%) to 11,497.Consumer durables & apparel (+0.86%), pharmaceuticals & biotechnology (+0.85%), and health-care equipment & services (+0.84%) sectors gained the most, while automobiles (-2.67%), consumer services (-1.32%), and technology hardware & equipment (-1.2%) sectors were under pressure.Carvana (CVNA) plunged 42.92% after Bloomberg reported that the used-car platform is consulting lawyers and investment banks about options for managing its debt.Tesla (TSLA) fell 3.21%, TripAdvisor (TRIP) slid 6.41%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) dropped 4.71%.On the other hand, Campbell Soup (CPB) rose 6.02%, as the company posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, and raised its annual outlook.Regarding U.S. economic data, third-quarter unit labor costs rose 2.4% on quarter (vs +3.5% expected), and nonfarm productivity gained 0.8% on quarter (vs +0.3% expected).The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated 11.3 basis points to 3.419%.European stocks closed lower. The DAX 40 fell 0.57%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.41%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.43%.U.S. WTI crude futures declined $1.80 to $72.46. The U.S. Energy Department reported a reduction of 5.19 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles (vs -3.88 million barrels expected).Gold price jumped $14 to $1,786 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar weakened against other major currencies. The dollar index fell to 105.15.USD/CAD was little changed at 1.3655. The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (vs +25 basis points expected) to 4.25%, the highest level in almost 15 years. The central bank signaled that its tightening campaign was near an end.USD/JPY fell 45 pips to 136.55.EUR/USD rose 41 pips to 1.0508. Germany's data showed that industrial production edged down 0.1% on month in October (vs -0.8% expected).GBP/USD climbed 77 pips to 1.2210. In the U.K., the Halifax house price index dropped 2.3% on month in November (vs -0.1% expected).AUD/USD gained 36 pips to 0.6724. USD/CHF lost 11 pips to 0.9409.Bitcoin traded slightly lower to $16,800.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY advanced further to 136.85. Japan's data showed that third-quarter gross domestic product growth was confirmed at -0.8% annualized on quarter (vs -1.0% estimated).AUD/USD traded lower to 0.6715. Australia's data showed that trade surplus declined to 12.22 billion Australian dollars in October with exports falling 1.0% on month (vs +1.0% expected).EUR/USD was little changed at 1.0503, and GBP/USD retreated to 1.2188.Gold price dipped to $1,783 an ounce.Bitcoin held up well at $16,870.Expected TodayIn the U.S., the latest number of initial jobless claims is expected to rise to 240,000.       UK MARKET NEWS       UK: The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors house price balance fell to -25% in November (vs -10% expected).British American Tobacco, a cigarette maker, posted a trading update: "We are confident in delivering our 2022 guidance, demonstrating once again the strength and resilience of our business. (...) Our New Category business continues to drive strong volume, revenue and market share growth and has become a significant contributor to group performance. (...) We expect growing contribution across all New Categories, and all Regions in 2022. We are confident in delivering our targets of 5 billion pounds revenue, and profitability by 2025."DS Smith, a packaging services provider, reported interim results: "For the six month period, revenue grew to 4,299 million pounds, up 26% on a constant currency basis and 28% on a reported basis (...) Adjusted basic earnings grew by 49% on a constant currency basis to 20.9 pence per share, reflecting the growth in profitability. (...) we are announcing an interim dividend for this year of 6.0 pence per share, an increase of 25%."Technology, chemicals and financial services shares fell most in London on Tuesday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Barclays (-0.83% to 157.44p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.From a technical point of view, BP (-2.24% to 464p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.       ECONOMIC CALENDAR       Time Event Forecast Importance   08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/03) 240k MEDIUM     08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov/26) 1.62M LOW     08:30 Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Dec/03) 231k LOW     10:30 EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (Dec/02) -31Bcf LOW     11:30 8-Week Bill Auction   LOW     11:30 4-Week Bill Auction   LOW                     NEWS SENTIMENT       Standard Chartered PLC STAN : LSE 584.20 GBp -1.78% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade             Siemens AG SIE : XETRA 132.90 EUR -0.57% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade             Knorr-Bremse AG KBX : XETRA 52.24 EUR -5.26% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade             Glencore PLC GLEN : LSE 540.30 GBp -2.95% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade             Bayer AG BAYN : XETRA 52.80 EUR -4.05% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade     TECHNICAL VIEWS       EUR/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.0485.   Pivot: 1.0485   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0485 with targets at 1.0530 & 1.0550 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0485 look for further downside with 1.0465 & 1.0440 as targets.   Comment: A support base at 1.0485 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.     Trade           Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: key resistance at 3949.00.   Pivot: 3949.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3949.00 with targets at 3908.00 & 3896.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3949.00 look for further upside with 3960.00 & 3969.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.     Trade           Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: key resistance at 78.80.   Pivot: 78.80   Our preference: Short positions below 78.80 with targets at 76.30 & 75.10 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 78.80 look for further upside with 80.30 & 81.30 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.     Trade
There Are Risks That An Increase In The Price Of Oil May Provoke China To Limit The Export Of Diesel Fuel

Saxo Bank Podcast: Look At Crude Oil Dynamics, Natural Gas In Europe, Weak Outlook From US Banks And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 08.12.2022 14:26
Summary:  Today, we look at the overall sense that market players don't want to take any strong new bets until we get to the other side of Dec 31. We also look US treasury yields dropping through pivotal levels at the longer end of the curve and the remarkable fact that the curve remains near its most inverted even as the 2-year yield is at local range lows. The market is increasingly convinced that Fed easing is set to start within 12 months after a bit more hiking next week and early next year. We also look at crude oil dynamics, natural gas in Europe, Swedish housing prices, weak outlook from US banks, the latest woes for Tesla, the Bank of Canada keeping CAD the weakest of G10 currencies, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Will market be allowed to go into hibernation until 2023? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Unlocking the Future: Key UK Wage Data and September BoE Rate Hike Prospects

Buying In China Tech And In Airlines Shares Picked Up

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 09.12.2022 09:05
Summary:  In today’s five minute video we bring you up to speed with what traders and investors in Australia at Saxo, have been doing this week. It reflects the two major drives of markets, higher for longer interest rates in US and a potential recession. On the other side, some clients are somewhat excited about China’s major cities easing restrictions, and dangling the carrot to ease further. We explore if upside is sustainable in metals, such as iron ore and why buying is picking up in the US dollar, with the USD index seeing its strongest gain in 12 weeks.   Investors and traders are bunkering into the theme of higher for longer interest rates in the US, and a potential recession This is the major theme that's driving markets and pushed global equities lowers this week. So we’ve been seeing profit taking, a little more selling and options put on tech companies, including Tesla, Google, and Apple  - more so than the last few weeks. And buying of the US dollar picked up again; with the DXY set for its biggest gain in 12 weeks, ahead of US CPI next week and the final Fed decision for 2022. There is pent up investor demand for investing in China’s reopening theme This is the second major driver of markets of late. It comes as five major cities have eased restrictions and dangled the carrot to ease further. As well as potentially scrapping mask wearing.  Commodities buying picked up on the platform at Saxo, given there are hopes for China to fast track economic growth next year. Buying in lithium stocks;  Pilbara Minerals, Allkem picked up  Buying in Fortescue Metals also picked up. This is because the commodity Fortescue makes 90% of its revenue from, iron ore (SCOA) the key steel making ingredient, rose 3.6% this week, taking its gain from the October low to 44%, with the price of the iron ore hitting $110.20, a new four month high. The price of iron ore has been rallying as China is easing restrictions and today the market heard whispers that Chinese property developers will get more support, which would support demand for iron ore rising. However it looks like buying volume in iron ore slowed for now. So perhaps until we see more concrete announcements or further easing of restrictions, iron ore and iron ore miners could maybe see a bit of profit or buying fade next week, especially as iron ore stocks were this weeks best performers. Once we get more hopes, the iron ore price might be supported higher along with upside in iron ore majors shares; Fortescue Metals, Champion Iron, BHP and Rio. Also, next week, iron ore majors may see share price upgrades from buy and sell side brokers. Buying in China Tech picked up;  given there are favourable interest rates in China, pent up demand, and restriction are easing. As such buying in Alibaba picked up.  In energy markets, buying in coal stocks picked up; with Whitehaven Coal buy orders rising.  And lastly, buying in airlines shares picked up as well. Especially in those air companies that travel in and out of Hong Kong, Such as Cathay Pacific. Qantas also saw increased buys.     For a weekly look at what to watch in markets - tune into our Spotlight.For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Video: What traders and investors have been buying amid recession concerns versus China easing restrictions | Saxo Group (home.saxo)      
Oil Prices Show Resilience Despite Setbacks, Gold Holds Above $1,900 Ahead of US Jobs Report

Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation (ARKK) Exchange-Traded Fund Loses Investor Confidence

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 13.12.2022 11:37
This year is exceptional in terms of many events, in particular events on the financial markets. ARKK is not doing too well, and Microsoft will take 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange. Read next: Euro Holds Above $1.05, USD/JPY Pair Rose Above 136| FXMAG.COM The Losses Investors have bought up growth stocks and other speculative assets en masse this year. In an environment of rising profits where they suddenly have opportunities to earn returns with little risk, many lose their appetite for cash-losing companies that promise a chance of return in the future. Shares in the fund, a pandemic-era favourite, made up mostly of underperforming, growth-minded tech companies, have fallen 63% this year. Wood's flagship fund is near a five-year low. The three largest holdings in the fund - known by the ticker symbol ARKK - are Zoom Video Communications Inc., Tesla Inc. and Exact Sciences Corp. , companies that Mrs. Wood believes have the potential to change the world. At the beginning of the year, Cathie Wood said that venture stocks in exchange-traded funds sold by ARK Investment Management LLC are so cheap that they will inevitably go up. A surprising number of investors wanted to give it a try. Some $16 billion flowed into ARK Innovation from the second quarter of 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic took hold, through the first quarter of 2021, when the fund’s assets peaked at $28 billion. Investors heeding a “buy the dip” rallying cry poured money into the fund in each of the first five months of the year—a net $1.89 billion—as markets tumbled. Shares of Zoom and Tesla have lost about half their value this year, while Exact Sciences, an unprofitable supplier of cancer screening and diagnostic tools, is down 42%. While many on Wall Street are curbing risks and preparing for a recession, Ms. Wood has increased her risk in recent weeks by buying more shares in cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc. and a bitcoin futures ETF. According to FactSet, ARKK added 931,000 Coinbase shares worth about $43 million in November. ARKK is the second-largest holder of Coinbase shares, which are down 83% since the beginning of the year. Similar bets yielded huge gains in a low-interest-rate environment in 2020 and 2021. ARKK's stock more than doubled in 2020 before concerns about inflation — and the prospect of higher rates — stalled its gains. Currently, ARKK is at its lowest levels, approaching pre-2018 levels. The lowest levels of the year may increase investors' concerns. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Microsoft Corp and LSEG Microsoft Corp. will take a 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange’s corporate parent. The agreement between the London Stock Exchange Group and Microsoft Corp connects one of the largest American technology companies with the largest market exchange in Europe. LSEG has tied its future to data sales, a way to diversify away from the low-margin stock market business. In 2021, it completed the purchase of the financial, information and terminal company Refinitiv Holdings Ltd. from the Blackstone Inc. consortium. and Thomson Reuters Corp. Microsoft takes the unusual step of buying an ownership stake in a customer by acquiring LSEG's stake from the Blackstone-Reuters consortium. Microsoft did not disclose how much it will pay for the shares. LSEG shares were up 1.8% Monday afternoon in London. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
It Was Possible That Tesla Would Move Closer To Resistance

Tesla Trades At Cheapest, Crude Oil Rallied More Than 2.50%

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 14.12.2022 11:19
Yesterday’s inflation report in the US filled investors with joy and further hope that inflation in the US may have peaked this summer and we will be heading lower from here, and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a softer monetary policy stance and hike, yes, by 50bp today, but certainly not more than another 25bp in February. Powell  But Powell could also stress the fact that inflation remains significantly high compared with the 2% policy target, and that relaxing the tightening measures prematurely is not a good idea. US Dollar In the FX, the US dollar index fell following the softer-than-expected CPI print, and hit a fresh low since summer. Markets The softer US dollar, and stronger euro sent the European indices to fresh highs since summer. The DAX flirted with the June peak, and the Eurostoxx50 traded at the highest level since FebruaryCrude oil rallied more than 2.50% yesterday, on hope that the Fed could slow down the rate hikes, and not push the US into a deep recession to fight inflation. The FTX drama In cryptocurrencies, the FTX drama continues with the arrestation of Sam Bankman-Fried in the Bahamas, news that investors withdrew $3.7 billion worth of funds from Binance since last week, and that Binance reportedly stopped the stablecoin USDC withdrawals. Bitcoin But Bitcoin couldn’t care less. The price of a coin advanced more than 3% yesterday, showing that the FTX drama has been priced in and out and further drama should not hit the coin harder. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 How does the Fed will about falling US inflation? 5:24 US dollar falls, majors & global equities rally 6:45 Crude oil tests short-term resistance 7:35 Bitcoin up despite unideal sector news 8:33 Tesla trades at cheapest ever PE Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #FOMC #Fed #rate #decision #dotplot #USD #CPI #inflation #data #EUR #GBP #JPY #XAU #crudeoil #DAX #EU50 #Bitcoin #SamBankmanFried #FTX #Binance #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Analysis Of Tesla: A Temporary Corrective Rally Should Not Come As A Surprise

Saxo Bank Podcast: Look At Tesla Posting New Cycle Lows, Equity Market Upside Fading Quickly And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 14.12.2022 13:06
Summary:  Today we look at yesterday's reaction to the softer than expected US November CPI data, with equity market upside fading quickly even as the reaction in US yields and the US dollar was stickier. We also discuss today's upcoming FOMC meeting, with the Fed facing a tough task if it wants to push back against easing market conditions and policy expectations today. We also look at Tesla posting new cycle lows and concerns for the stock and EV market, Apple, Inditex, crude oil, precious metals, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: FOMC will have a hard time moving the needle today | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Tesla (TSLA) slumped 8.88% after the electric-car maker offered a higher discount of $7,500 on Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in the U.S

Tesla (TSLA) sank a further 2.58% after Goldman Sachs lowered its price target on the stock

Intertrader Market News Intertrader Market News 15.12.2022 08:51
DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 15, 2022                 Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,399.00 -65.00 (-0.45%) Read the analysis 14,350.00 14,505.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,461.00 7,509.00     S&P 500 (CME) 4,030.50 -0.25 (-0.01%) Read the analysis 4,070.00 3,997.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,854.50 -14.50 (-0.12%) Read the analysis 12,060.00 11,730.00     Dow Jones (CME) 34,258.00 +19.00 (+0.06%) Read the analysis 34,620.00 33,960.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 76.63 -0.65 (-0.84%) Read the analysis 77.80 75.70     Gold 1,795.33 -11.995 (-0.66%) Read the analysis 1,785.00 1,805.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Wednesday, U.S. stocks posted an intraday reversal to the downside after investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish post-rate-hike comments. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 142 points lower (-0.42%) to 33,966, the S&P 500 fell 24 points (-0.61%) to 3,995, and the Nasdaq 100 slid 93 points (-0.79%) to 11,740.As widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25-4.50%. The Fed now projects the key rate to reach 5.10% by the end of 2023.And Jerome Powell pointed out the central bank will not cut interest rates until its inflation target of 2% is reached.The U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield dropped 2.9 basis points to 3.472%.Automobiles (-2.14%), diversified financials (-1.56%), and semiconductors (-1.49%) sectors lost the most.Tesla (TSLA) sank a further 2.58% after Goldman Sachs lowered its price target on the stock.Marriott International (MAR) fell 2.32% as the hotel operator was downgraded to "neutral" at Citi.On the other hand, Delta Air Lines (DAL) rose 2.79% as the airline gave a better-than-expected full-year guidance on adjusted earnings per share.Pfizer (PFE) gained 2.66% on reports that the drugmaker has been allowed to import and distribute antiviral drug Paxlovid in China.European stocks also closed lower. The DAX 40 fell 0.26%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.21%, and the FTSE 100 dipped 0.09%.U.S. WTI crude futures added $2.00 to $77.38 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Department reported an addition of 10.23 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles, in contrast to a reduction of 3.59 million barrels expected.Gold price declined $3 to $1,807 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar softened against other major currencies. The dollar index declined to 103.62.EUR/USD rose 52 pips to 1.0685. Data showed that the Eurozone's industrial production declined 2.0% on month in October (vs -1.2% expected).GBP/USD gained 64 pips to 1.2430. In the U.K., the inflation rate slowed to 10.7% on year in November (vs +11.0% expected).USD/JPY dropped 16 pips to 135.43.AUD/USD added 9 pips to 0.6864. This morning, Australia's data showed that the jobless rate remained stable at 3.4% in November with employment rising by 64,000 (vs +25,000 expected).USD/CHF declined 44 pips to 0.9240, and USD/CAD was little changed at 1.3544.Bitcoin once broke above $18,000 before retreating to $17,800 after the 50-basis-point rate hike was confirmed.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, Japan's data showed that trade deficit narrowed to 2.03 trillion yen in November (vs 1.80 trillion yen expected) with exports increasing 20.0% on year (vs +24.0% expected).USD/JPY was stable at 135.53.Australia's data showed that the jobless rate remained stable at 3.4% in November with employment rising by 64,000 (vs +25,000 expected).AUD/USD declined to 0.6839.EUR/USD retreated to 1.0655, and GBP/USD traded lower to 1.2392.Gold price lost again the handle of $1,800 an ounce.Bitcoin declined further to $17,720.Expected TodayIn the U.K., the Bank of England is expected to raise its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.50%.The European Central Bank is expected to increase its key interest rates by 50 basis points to 2.0-2.5%.In the U.S., retail sales are expected to grow 0.2% on month in November. The latest number of initial jobless claims is expected at 235,000.The New York State manufacturing index is expected to fall to 1.0 in December, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to improve to -7.0 in December.           UK MARKET NEWS           AstraZeneca, a global biopharmaceutical company, said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will extend the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date by three months to provide further time for a full review of the supplementary new drug application (sNDA) for Lynparza (olaparib) in combination with abiraterone and prednisone or prednisolone for the treatment of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC).Auto & Parts, chemicals and insurance shares gained most in London on Tuesday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, BAE Systems (+1.61% to 834.2p), Compass Group (+1.37% to 1925p), Croda International (+0.29% to 7016p) crossed above their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   07:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.5% HIGH     07:00 MPC Meeting Minutes   MEDIUM     07:00 BoE MPC Vote Cut 0/9 MEDIUM     07:00 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 0/9 MEDIUM     07:00 BoE MPC Vote Hike 9/9 MEDIUM     08:30 Retail Sales MoM (Nov) 0.2% HIGH     08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/10) 235k MEDIUM     08:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec) 1 MEDIUM     08:30 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Nov) 0.5% MEDIUM     08:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) -7 MEDIUM     09:15 Industrial Production YoY (Nov) 2.7% MEDIUM     09:15 Industrial Production MoM (Nov) -0.2% MEDIUM     10:00 Business Inventories MoM (Oct) 0.3% MEDIUM     16:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows (Oct)   MEDIUM     19:01 GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec) -43 HIGH                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           HSBC Holdings PLC HSBA : LSE 497.70 GBp +0.48% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Uniper SE UN01 : XETRA 3.044 EUR -7.25% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   RWE AG RWE : XETRA 42.73 EUR +2.08% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Rio Tinto PLC RIO : LSE 5,622.00 GBp -2.73% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Deliveroo PLC ROO : LSE 86.90 GBp -4.06% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Barclays PLC BARC : LSE 160.26 GBp +2.21% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.   Pivot: 1.0635   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0635 with targets at 1.0700 & 1.0725 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0635 look for further downside with 1.0610 & 1.0585 as targets.   Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: under pressure.   Pivot: 3984.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3984.00 with targets at 3944.00 & 3921.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3984.00 look for further upside with 3995.00 & 4017.00 as targets.   Comment: As long as the resistance at 3984.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 3944.00 remains high.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: bullish bias above 81.20.   Pivot: 81.20   Our preference: Long positions above 81.20 with targets at 83.60 & 85.20 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 81.20 look for further downside with 80.10 & 78.60 as targets.   Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.        
Doubts Surround Euro Amid European Economic Concerns and Political Speeches

Vietnamese Warehouse Equipment Maker Sues Amazon, Musk once again sold Tesla shares, Warner Bros. Discovery Inc Has Problems With High Costs

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 15.12.2022 12:29
Warner Bros. Discovery Inc continues to cut costs and expects restructuring costs to increase by up to $1 billion than anticipated less than two months ago. Amazon sued for breach of contract. Once again, Elon Musk decided to sell Tesla shares, leaving himself 13.4%. Amazon is sued The Vietnamese warehouse equipment maker says in a lawsuit filed in New York on Tuesday that it has dramatically expanded its operations in eight years to accommodate Amazon's rapid growth. This included setting up more manufacturing facilities, more than doubling the workforce, and cutting ties with other large retail clients such as IKEA, Columbia Sportswear Co. and Decathlon S.A. Gilimex said Amazon scaled up its purchases in 2020 and 2021, when e-commerce sales were booming as the pandemic shifted consumer behavior, then sharply pulled back orders this year as online sales growth slowed. Gilimex said the partnership was built on "trust" and Gilimex relied on the accuracy of Amazon's forecasts to make appropriate investments to meet demand, including purchasing materials and arranging capacity and manpower to meet the US company's needs. The lawsuit, which alleges breach of contract, breach of fiduciary duty, unfair trade practices and negligent misrepresentation, was filed in the New York State Supreme Court. The lawsuit said the change resulted in "immediate and virtually complete destruction of Gilimex's business." Gilimex seeks approximately $280 million in damages to recover costs. Read next: From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level | FXMAG.COM Warner Bros. Discovery Inc and cost problems Warner Bros. Discovery Inc, whose holding companies include film and television studios, CNN and HBO, and Discovery channels such as Food Network and HGTV, said in a statement Wednesday that it expects to incur pre-tax restructuring costs of as much as $5.3 billion by 2024. In October, it said it anticipated as much as $4.3 billion in restructuring fees. Since the conclusion of the Discovery and WarnerMedia merger earlier this year, there have been significant layoffs, including executives at the major units. Many high-profile projects and programs have also been killed or cancelled. Warner Bros. Discovery said it still expects restructuring initiatives to be completed by the end of 2024. Last month, the company raised its cost synergy target to $3.5 billion from $3 billion. It also has debt of about $50 billion. The company's shares fell 1.1% in Wednesday's after-hours trading. Musk holds 13.4% of Tesla shares Musk sold nearly 22 million Tesla shares in the three days ending December 14. This week's sale means Tesla's CEO has sold more than $39 billion worth of Tesla shares since the company's shares peaked in November 2021. Tesla, still the world's most valued carmaker by value. Tesla's CEO previously sold the company's shares in April, August and November this year, linking the last two batches of sales to Twitter. This month's sale leaves Musk with about 13.4% of Tesla, meaning he remains by far the company's largest shareholder. Still, the sale of shares could weaken his control over Tesla. It wasn't clear what prompted Musk to sell the extra Tesla shares. Mr Musk's focus on Twitter has irked some Tesla investors as the company tracks its worst annual stock price performance ever. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM Tesla shares closed up 2.58% on Wednesday at $156.80, their lowest level in more than two years. The company's stock price drop of around 55% in 2022 overshadowed that of the Nasdaq Composite, which has fallen around 29% since the beginning of the year. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
Tesla Will Struggle To Recover In The Coming Years

Knorr-Bremse Strengthens Its ESG Measures In Partnership With Deutsche Bank | Arizona Is Attractive For The EV Market

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 16.12.2022 11:54
The electric vehicle market has a bright future, but is currently struggling with the lack of chip supplies and difficulties in the investment market. Many companies use partnerships with financial institutions, and some such as Knorr-Bremse and Deutsche Bank develop their partnerships. In this article: Arizona and EV market Investments in EV start-ups are not so attractive anymore Preparing for the new tax year Knorr-Bremse and its Partnership With Deutsche Bank Electric Vehicles And Self-Driving Technology Have The Potential To Grow In Arizona Problems in the delivery of chips from China have become one of the problems in the United States. Companies producing electric cars are looking for solutions. Arizona quickly became the epicenter of electric vehicles and self-driving technology and is now the site of three major new semiconductor plants. The Arizona Commerce Authority says it helped 634 companies relocate or expand in Arizona between 2015 and 2020. Thus, many new residents who are qualified in this field have flowed into this region. Arizona has rapidly become an epicenter for EV and self-driving tech — and now it's the site of 3 big new semiconductor factories. Watch the full video here: https://t.co/N6fsv8kiZt pic.twitter.com/UublHC3Wnz — CNBC (@CNBC) December 16, 2022 Read next: Adobe Earnings For The Fiscal Fourth Quarter Was Strong, Changes In Loyalty Programs Of American Airlines| FXMAG.COM Investments in EV start-ups are not so attractive anymore The automotive industry is investing over $1 trillion in the revolutionary transition from combustion engines to software-controlled electric vehicles. From Detroit to Shanghai, automakers and government policy makers have embraced the promise that electric vehicles will deliver cleaner, safer transportation. Industry executives and forecasters disagree on how quickly electric vehicles could take over half of the global vehicle market, let alone the entirety. Industry officials and analysts said that among the barriers to EV adoption were the lack of public fast-charging infrastructure and the rising cost of EV batteries. Difficulties arose not only in the production area. Investors who eagerly watched and invested in Tesla Inc and competing electric vehicle start-ups that hoped to emulate Tesla's success. This year has shown that nothing is complete and economic situations also hit the giants. With interest rates rising and financial markets swirling, stakes in many EV startups have declined. WATCH: The past year was sobering for investors who poured money into Tesla and rival electric vehicle startups that hoped to emulate the success of Elon Musk's company https://t.co/1ZAIf7TV8i $TSLA pic.twitter.com/gmlWlMIoEJ — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) December 16, 2022 Preparing for the new tax year With the end of the year, financial institutions in their tweets and articles will draw attention to what you need to prepare from the financial side. Before the new year, it's worth looking back at your expenses, general cash flow to be able to prepare better for the new year. Financial security is important, but you should also remember about taxes. There is no doubt that taxes are a nightmare for everyone, whether for an individual taxpayer or for entrepreneurs. There may be changes in tax regulations that are worth paying attention to. Preparing for the new tax year can help you not to lose too much on taxes. An important part of this process is knowing the likely tax bracket you'll fall into, the limits that may affect you, and the potential deductions available. With the year rapidly coming to a close, it might pay to prepare in advance for Tax Day. Here are 8 things to keep in mind as you prepare to file your 2022 taxes. https://t.co/vTPSg1p4cH — Charles Schwab Corp (@CharlesSchwab) December 15, 2022 Knorr-Bremse and its partnership With Deutsche Bank Knorr-Bremse strengthens its ESG measures in partnership with Deutsche Bank and expands its supply chain finance program to include sustainability aspects. For 15 years, Knorr-Bremse suppliers have been using the Supply Chain Finance program run by Deutsche Bank. For example, they get their money faster because the bank pre-finances at attractive interest rates until Knorr-Bremse pays the invoice. Financing costs for suppliers are based on the creditworthiness of Knorr-Bremse, which usually reduces financing costs for suppliers. Deutsche Bank supports @KnorrBremseAG in strengthening its ESG measures and expanding its supply chain finance programme to include sustainability aspects. Suppliers with good sustainability performance benefit from more attractive financing terms. https://t.co/pEvfnF0Zk0 — Deutsche Bank (@DeutscheBank) December 16, 2022
Twitter And Elon Musk Faced A Growing List Of Claims

Elon Musk Has Reinstated The Twitter Accounts Of Several Journalists | According To Jim Cramer, Caterpillar Stocks, Illinois Tool Works And CSX Are Noteworthy

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 18.12.2022 20:34
With the end of the year, I look at what may happen in 2023. JP Morgan looks at finance from the economic side and what affects it, and Jim Cramer traditionally focuses on the stock market. In this article: Outlook Of 2023 by JP Morgan Jim Cramer’s look at stock market Elon Musk And Twitter Outlook 2023 Most of the things that could go wrong for investors happened in 2022, driven by high inflation, an aggressive cycle of interest rate hikes around the world, and the war in Ukraine. Remarkably, both stocks and bonds suffered heavy losses in 2022 – one of the worst years in the history of a balanced portfolio. Lower stock valuations and higher bond yields offer investors the most attractive entry point into a traditional portfolio in more than a decade. All this will be reflected in the new year. JP Morgan takes into account key economic and market factors in this year's forecast - the consequences of monetary policy tightening, the weakening of the global economy, market prices and valuation resets Higher rates. Weaker growth. Valuation resets. Explore what these key economic and market forces may mean for investors. — J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan) December 16, 2022 Read next: Rise Of The Attractiveness Of Living In Cities – Urbanization| FXMAG.COM Jim Cramer’s look at stock market Jim Cramer looks at market action, this time specifically industrial stocks. The specialist looks at the situations of individual companies and assesses their attractiveness. His tips can be helpful for investors, especially those who are starting their adventure with this market. Jim Cramer on Friday identified three industrial stocks that he believes are worth owning next year “CAT has much more exposure to infrastructure, and I think they’ve got a boost from the oil and gas industry coming,” Cramer said. According to a specialist, companies such as Caterpillar, Illinois Tool Works and rail operator CSX are noteworthy. Here is why @JimCramer sees more upside ahead for Caterpillar in 2023. https://t.co/CmEl3RctII — Mad Money On CNBC (@MadMoneyOnCNBC) December 17, 2022 Elon Musk And Twitter For the past two months, Elon Musk's attention has been focused on the development of Twitter, which he purchased in late October. Since then, his activities on this social networking site have been watched with special attention. Not only on Twitter, but also after it. One such action was blocking the accounts of journalists. The suspensions stemmed from disagreements over a Twitter account called ElonJet that tracked Musk's private jet using publicly available information. On Wednesday, Twitter suspended the account and others that tracked private jets, despite Musk's earlier tweet saying he would not suspend ElonJet in the name of free speech. Soon after, Twitter changed its privacy policy to prohibit the sharing of "live location information." Then on Thursday night, several journalists, including those from the New York Times, CNN and the Washington Post, were suspended from Twitter without notice. The episode, which one high-profile security researcher called a "Thursday night massacre," is regarded by critics as new evidence that Musk considers himself a "free speech absolutist," eliminating speech and users he personally dislikes. Now it has been reported that Elon Musk has reinstated the Twitter accounts of several journalists who had been suspended for a day in connection with the controversy over publishing public data about the billionaire's plane. The reinstatement came after unprecedented suspensions prompted heavy criticism on Friday from government officials, advocacy groups and journalistic organizations in several parts of the world, with some saying the microblogging platform threatened press freedom. Elon Musk reinstated the Twitter accounts of several journalists that were suspended in a controversy over publishing public data about the billionaire' s plane https://t.co/MPaQFmEp3Q pic.twitter.com/V6ipgraOpY — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) December 18, 2022
The Crude Oil Market Situation Is Stable Despite Russia's Production Cuts

Russia Responded To The Europeans' Price Cap, China Reopening Story Is Not All Rosy!

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 28.12.2022 10:24
Yesterday, Russia finally responded to the EU’s price cap on its oil exports, saying that they will simply stop exporting their oil to parties that ‘directly or indirectly use the mechanism of setting a price cap’. Crude Oil The latter announcement gave a minor boost to crude oil yesterday, but the barrel of American crude remained offered into the 50-DMA, near $81.60pb, and the price is back below the $80pb this morning. BUT, an eventual decrease in Russian oil supply gives support to the oil bulls’ in the medium run, along with other factors as China reopening and cold winter in America. China reopening news IMPORTANT to note: If the Chinese reopening story is positive for oil and commodity prices - and for the massively battered Chinese stocks, it’s bad news for global inflation. This is why we don’t see the US stocks gain on China reopening news, but we rather see them under a decent pressure, as the surge in Chinese demand will certainly boost inflation through higher energy and commodity prices. Inflation And in response to higher inflation, the central banks will continue hiking rates. As a result, the sovereign bond yields are higher, the stocks are lower, while the US dollar is mixed. Apple And Tesla Apple is down to lowest levels since summer 2021, and Tesla’s deep dive deepens by the day. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:44 Russians won't sell oil to parties involved in price cap 3:32 China reopening story is not all rosy! 6:03 Bitcoin hash rate rings alarm bell 7:30 Tesla races to the bottom Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Russia #oil #ban #China #Covid #reopening #crudeoil #rally #inflation #expectations #USD #EUR #AUD #XAU #Bitcoin #Apple #Amazon #Tesla #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  
US Inflation Slows as Spending Stalls: Glimmers of Hope for Economic Outlook

Leading Used Tesla Prices Fall Faster Than The Market

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 28.12.2022 11:31
The electric car market is mainly associated with Tesla, its situation is also observed by investors. The stock markets are still attracting new investors, the current year is coming to an end, so it is worth checking what should be confessed to this market in 2023. In this article: US Treasury yields fell Morningstar look at stocks market Tesla news US Treasury yields fell Investors are bracing themselves for the potential pressures of a recession, persistent inflation and what this could mean for Federal Reserve policy, especially with regard to interest rates, in 2023. They will be scouring the latest economic data releases this year for clues. Many investors are hoping the data will signal an easing of inflationary pressures, as it would suggest the Fed may slow down further or stop rate hikes altogether. These factors affect the market situation of bonds. US Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors became concerned about economic growth and the direction of monetary policy for 2023. Treasury yields slip as investors gauge 2023 Fed policy https://t.co/uR6xgrxlPy — CNBC (@CNBC) December 28, 2022 Read next: The Crisis Of The Semiconductor Industry, Chip Inventory Levels Are Well Above Our Target Level| FXMAG.COM Morningstar look at stocks market The new year is getting closer. Everyone prepares as best they can to start it in the best possible way, makes plans. The stock market is under the watch of Morningstar analysts. How it presented itself this year and what it is heading for in 2023 is detailed in the following tweet. Early in the year, Morningstar analysts deemed many of the stocks they cover to be overvalued. But after the broad market has fallen more than 20 percent since the start of the year, analysts believe valuations have moved too far in the opposite direction. Over the last 20 years, Morningstar analysts found that US stocks were undervalued only 10 different times, or about 36% of the time. According to Morningstar, among the most underrated industries today are online content and information, including stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL), Google's parent company, and Meta Platforms (META), Facebook's parent company. Where are stocks looking cheap or expensive as we head into 2023?Here are 7 charts detailing our analysts' latest stock market valuations: https://t.co/UZMK7Ygufy pic.twitter.com/uUsnYGWKZI — Morningstar, Inc. (@MorningstarInc) December 28, 2022 Tesla Tesla is the most popular manufacturer of electric cars. Sales have increased in recent years, but many factors affect car prices. Fuel prices are easing, interest rates are rising, Tesla output is increasing, and EV competition is growing, all of which have implications for the price of used Teslas. Soaring gasoline prices as a result of the war in Ukraine have boosted demand for the Tesla, one of the few long-range electric vehicles on the market. Buyers of some new Teslas took advantage of the booming market to sell their relatively new cars at a profit and then order new ones, fueling the demand for new Tesla cars. Used Tesla prices are falling faster than those of other automakers, and clean energy status symbols languish in dealerships longer, according to the information. WATCH: Fuel prices are easing, interest rates are rising, Tesla output is increasing, and EV competition is growing, leading used Tesla prices to fall faster than the market. It's creating a cascading effect on new Tesla prices https://t.co/jCLZphpcRX pic.twitter.com/ZgXRr3d2Fc — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) December 28, 2022
RBA Governor Announces Major Changes at RBA Board as US Inflation Expected to Decline

The First Technical Problems Of Twitter Under The Leadership Of Elon Musk, Tesla Shares Worst Of The Year

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 29.12.2022 11:46
The companies of a business magnate and investor Elon Musk have been struggling with problems lately. Tesla has a problem with listing on the stock exchange and Twitter with technical problems. Around 10,000 people reported Twitter going down Wednesday night. Twitter Twitter's performance has been under scrutiny since Musk completed his takeover of the company in late October. He then downsized the company's workforce, leading some former employees and outside observers to question whether the cutbacks would hamper Twitter's operations. Users who tried to log in via their desktop browsers on Wednesday received an error message. The Twitter Spaces tab, which allows users to join real-time conversations with others, also did not work on the platform's mobile app version. Other aspects of the Twitter app seemed to work well for users, including the ability to tweet. The problems were solved after about two hours. Musk, when asked on Twitter if there had been a service disruption, tweeted "It's working for me." It wasn't clear from which Twitter function Musk sent the message. Twitter, like many online platforms, has had occasional outages in the past due to technical glitches, including one in July. The outage occurs amidst a brawl between Twitter and Elon Musk, the world's richest man. Internet outages are quite common and have affected many tech companies over the years, although the length of the outages can vary greatly. They can affect people's ability to do business or connect with friends and family. Twitter shares hold their level above 50.0. Thus, they have the best month of the year. Read next: The US Will Require PCR Testing For Travelers From China, BRF Agree To Pay $111 Million To The Government| FXMAG.COM Tesla Elon Musk's electric vehicle maker is nearing its worst December stock performance and endured a seven-day streak after Tuesday's close. It was Tesla's longest streak since September 2018, when the company struggled to get its new Model 3 into the hands of customers. Tesla has lost almost a third of its value in the past seven days of losses, returning to August 2020 levels. The stock rebounded slightly on Wednesday, closing 3.3% higher. Musk Twitter call Spaces signaled that he would not be selling any Tesla stock for at least 18 to 24 months. The chief executive has liquidated more than $39 billion in the company's stock since the stock peaked in November 2021. The billionaire's comments on Twitter Spaces were among his most expansive responses to Tesla investor concerns that he had been distracted since he bought Twitter in October in a $44 billion deal. Tesla shares have fallen more than 60% this year, underperforming the broader market. Some of Musk's actions on Twitter and his political comments on the platform have raised concerns that Tesla's brand could suffer. The company's image has deteriorated in recent months, in part because of Musk's Twitter involvement, according to brand surveys. The Tesla boss also said the car company will continue to invest as part of its growth plans. He said the company was "close to choosing a location for its next Gigafactory", without giving details. He said Tesla also plans to start refining lithium for batteries at its Corpus Christi, Texas facility in about two years to help the electric vehicle maker meet demand for materials needed for power cells. As mentioned above, Tesla shares are the worst of the year. Such low levels of the electric car manufacturer has been recorded since 2020. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
In Crypto, You Could Prove You Own A Private Key Without Revealing It

So-Called "Information Noise" Affects The Cryptocurrency Market

XTB Team XTB Team 29.12.2022 14:23
What affects the price of cryptocurrencies? Over the past years, the digital currency market has gathered a multi-million-strong community among others from traders, speculators and investment funds. This was mainly due to high volatility of those assets whose price movements are very dynamic and create potential earning potential. Beginner investors should pay attention to the price when starting cryptocurrency trading Bitcoin, trying to interpret it in the context of macroeconomic, market and political. This is due to the fact that the entry of large institutions and companies, such as GrayScale or Tesla, most likely ended the period in which cryptocurrency prices moved in a manner uncorrelated with the traditional stock exchange. Vitalik Buterin, the creator of the second most popular cryptocurrency - Ethereum, recently returned attention to the fact that the price of Bitcoin moves in a way that is strongly correlated with the index US tech companies on NASDAQ. This is an important aspect because the price Bitcoin is treated as an indicator of the condition of the entire crypto market, where a large price drop the oldest of the cryptocurrencies most often also causes drops in other coins. All that creates a system of connected vessels - from the "classic" exchange to the latest "altcoins", that's why it is important to keep up to date with important economic events. Other factors that have a significant impact on the price of cryptocurrencies include: Information on market entry or exit by large institutions and companies Actions taken by the largest Bitcoin holders - the so-called “whales” A growing market for Metaverse concepts Information on the further adoption of blockchain technology It is also worth noting that the cryptocurrency market is highly susceptible to the so-called "information noise", occurring most often in social media, where individual entries are known people have already had a significant influence on the formation of prices largest cryptocurrencies. A perfect example here is the case of Elon Musk, whose tweet about him considering withdrawing Bitcoin as accepted by The Tesla of the means of payment was caused by a several percent drop in the valuation of this currency. By trading on the XTB trading platform, the investor gains access to tools enabling monitoring of the current market situation, e.g. for news and analysis prepared by a team of professional Analysts. At the same time, built in platform, advanced technical analysis tools allow you to interpret movements prices and their assessment at every stage of the investment process.
UK GDP Already Falling And Continuing To Do So For This Calendar Year, Copper Is Still Within A Tightening Range

UK GDP Already Falling And Continuing To Do So For This Calendar Year, Copper Is Still Within A Tightening Range

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 03.01.2023 09:36
Summary:  While Japan, the UK and the US have yet to start trading this year, markets are on the move elsewhere, as mainland European stocks put in a strong session yesterday and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong is making a bid at multi-month highs overnight. Despite Japan’s closed markets, the JPY is surging, as are the Chinese renminbi and gold, which rose overnight to a six-month high in USD terms.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures opened 0.7% higher on the first print of the year but have since retreated lower up 0.3% for the session compared to the last day of trading in 2022. The positive sentiment from yesterday’s European equity session and positive trading session in Asia, despite a slightly weaker than estimated China PMI manufacturing figures for December, are carrying over into US equity futures. We still expect equity markets to be quiet and not reveal anything meaningful in terms of information of positioning and flows until early next week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) On its first day of trading in 2023, Hang Seng Index opened lower but rallied to post a 2% gain as of writing. China telcos, electricity generating companies, pharmaceuticals, autos, and Macao casino operators led the charge higher. It is widely expected that the border between the mainland and Hong Kong will be reopened as soon as January 8, 2023. Investors brushed the weak December NBS PMI reports released during the holiday and the Caixin PMI today and the inevitable surge and spread of Covid inflections during the initial stage of relaxation of pandemic containment in China to focus on the improved economic outlook in mainland China and Hong Kong for 2023. China’s CSI 300 Index gained 0.5%. FX: The action in FX remains firmly centred on Asia … with the Japanese yen surging to new highs overnight versus the rest of G10 currencies as the 130.00 level in USDJPY gave way without much fight and EURJPY is poking below 138.50, its lowest level since September of last year as the market has grown increasingly convinced that the Bank of Japan is set for a further policy tightening this year and despite the ECB’s overt hawkishness. The Chinese renminbi is also off to a strong start in 2023 despite dramatic disruptions to activity on the ground from Covid as a further CNH rally overnight has taken USDCNH to within striking distance of its 200-day moving average near 6.86. The USDJPY performance is particularly interesting, given the tight correlation of USDJPY with US treasury yields over the last 12 months and more, as US yields backed up sharply to end 2022 and have yet to trade this year. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3 ) Crude oil futures fluctuated around unchanged as a new year got underway overnight in Asia. Another volatile year undoubtedly lies ahead with multiple uncertainties still impacting supply and demand. The two biggest that potentially will weigh against each other in the short term remain the prospect for a bumpy recovery in Chinese demand being offset by worries about a global economic slowdown. Covid fears, inflation fighting central banks, lack of investments into the discovery of future supply, labour shortages and sanctions against Russia will also play its part in the coming months. Sentiment, however, did improve ahead of yearend after hedge funds raised bullish Brent crude oil bets by the most in 17 months. Gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) strongly out of the starting blocks Gold trades at a fresh six-month high above $1840 and silver an eight-month high at $24.50 as the positive momentum from December gets carried over into the new year. The US treasury market opens later today but futures are signalling softer yields from where we left off on Friday while the dollar trades soft led by a strong yen. In general, we are looking for a price friendly 2023 supported by recession and stock market valuation risks, an eventual peak in central bank rates combined with the prospect of a weaker dollar and inflation not returning to the expected sub-3% level by yearend all adding support. In addition, the de-dollarization seen by several central banks last year, when a record amount of gold was bought look set to continue, thereby providing a soft floor under the market. In the week ahead we focus on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s US job report. Above $1842, the 50% of the 2022 correction, gold will be looking for resistance at $1850 and $1878 next. Copper jumps despite short-term headwinds HG copper trades up more than one percent at the start of a new trading year, but still within a tightening range, currently between $3.8 and $3.94 per pound. We expect to see a bumpy start to the year with China’s reopening process potentially being delayed by virus outbreaks and companies shutting down early ahead of the Lunar New Year, starting already on January 23 this year.  In addition, the risk of a global economic slowdown as highlighted by the IMF in its latest update may also weigh at the start of a year. Overall, however, the medium term offers further upside driven by reduced mining supply and increased focus on the electrification of the world, a copper intensive process that may offset weakness from the housing sector. Yields on US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) start the year near multi-week highs US Treasuries have just started trading for 2023 this morning in Europe, opening some five basis points lower for the 10-year benchmark at 3.82% after backing up sharply as 2022 drew to a close, particularly at the longer end of the yield curve, helping to steepen the 2-10 portion of the treasury yield curve from its most inverted levels in some four decades earlier in December at around –80 basis points, to closer to –50 basis points as market participants figure that a recession is on the way this year that will see the Fed chopping rates by year end. The 10-year yield level to watch to the upside is perhaps the 4.00% area ahead of the 4.34% high from October, which is a 15-year high. What is going on? ECB President Lagarde out with fresh hawkish rhetoric yesterday … warning of a further rise in borrowing costs to fight inflation - “It would be even worse if we allowed inflation to become entrenched.” Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel was also out yesterday warning of a “significant increase in long-term inflation expectations”. European yields surged in the wake of the December 15 ECB meeting on Lagarde’s hawkish blast at the press conference, with German 2-year yields, for example, rising from 2.13% before that meeting to as high as 2.77% last Friday before easing a few basis points yesterday. Tesla deliveries for Q4 fell short of estimates, despite incentives The company delivered 405.3k vehicles in the fourth quarter, which fell short of consensus expectations for over 420k. Still, the number was a record for quarterly deliveries and strongly higher from the 308.7k vehicles Tesla sold in Q4 of last year. Tesla shares lost 65% last year, though they did surge over 10% off late December lows just ahead of year-end. UK Economy may face worst recession in 2023 An FT poll of over 100 economists suggested that four out of five respondents think that UK growth will fall short of global peers, with GDP already falling and continuing to do so for this calendar year, after the inflationary shocks of the last two years will required that the Bank of England continues to raise borrowing costs and as the new Sunak-Hunt government is bent on stabilizing the country’s debt trajectory with a more austere fiscal regime than its predecessors. Recession will hit a third of the world this year The new year has kicked off with a warning from the IMF head that a third of the global economy will be hit by recession this year. In their latest update Kristalina Georgieva warned that the world faces a “tougher” year in 2023 than the previous 12 months as the US, EU and China are all slowing simultaneously. China could see its annual growth in line with global growth for the first time in 40 years and potentially acting as a drag on instead of a driver of worldwide growth. She did sound more optimistic on the prospects for the US saying it may avoid recession because unemployment is so low. What are we watching next? US data this week relative to market expectations for Fed policy The market continues to express the view that inflationary pressures will decelerate and that the labour market will loosen up sufficiently for the Fed to begin chopping rates before year-end. Last week’s US Consumer Confidence survey for December showed a strong surge in confidence, a development that is at odds with past patterns for the survey if the country is tilting into a recession. Further strong US data for December and the next month or two would be an interesting challenge of the market expectations. This week sees the release of the December ISM manufacturing survey and the December jobs report, both on Friday. US Debt Ceiling issue as the new 118th US Congress convenes today in Washington D.C. The perennial debt ceiling issue was largely skirted over the last couple of years as pandemic priorities may have prevented partisan grandstanding. But Republican lawmakers have promised a fight to extract concessions from the Biden administration. Watching for how hard the Republicans are willing to take this issue as the debt ceiling will be reached by summer of this year. Earnings to watch The earnings calendar is light in the first week of the new year, but in a couple of weeks the first Q4 earnings releases will begin to be released. The Q4 earnings season will continue its focus on margin pressures related to input costs on employees and raw materials including energy. Thursday: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, Constellation Brands, RPM International Friday: Naturgy Energy Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0855 – Germany Dec. Unemployment Change 0930 – UK Dec. Final Manufacturing PMI 1300 – Germany Dec. CPI 1430 – Canada Manufacturing PMI 1445 – US Dec. Final Manufacturing PMI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 3, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Analysis Of Tesla: A Temporary Corrective Rally Should Not Come As A Surprise

The Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) Will Impose A Fine Of $2.2 Million On Tesla Inc

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 03.01.2023 10:28
Electronic cars are becoming more and more popular, be it from manufacturers, users or investors. Like everything, it has its limits. It turns out that the most popular EV manufacturer Tesla overestimated its capabilities for which it can pay as much as $2.2 million. Ecology is not only a change of sapline cars to EVs, but also a reduction in the production of plastic or its recycling. Plastic is still arriving and its recycling takes too long compared to its production. Chemical recycling may be the solution. In this article: Punishment for Tesla Chemical recycling Punishment for Tesla There is no doubt that electric cars are our future. The most famous electric car maker, Tesla, has been struggling with a lot of problems lately, while its owner Elon Musk is focusing his attention on Twitter activities. Although we can already use electric vehicles, there are still many problems that need to be eliminated if electric cars are to become as common as the current ones powered by oil or gas. Tesla advertises itself as the most efficient electric car, but according to South Korea, it is not. The driving range of the US electric car maker's cars drops by up to 50.5% in cold weather compared to how they are advertised online. According to the Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC), the range has been exaggerated, and thus the KFTC will impose a fine on the producer. South Korea's antitrust regulator has said it will impose a fine of 2.85 billion won ($2.2 million) on Tesla Inc. South Korea fines Tesla $2.2 million, saying the driving range of the American EV maker's cars can plunge in low temperatures by up to about half of what they’re advertised online https://t.co/bjVbATtXyk pic.twitter.com/jpQTY2wjAG — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) January 3, 2023 Read next: First Trading Day Of 2023: GBP/USD Is Trading 1.2051, USD/JPY Pair Below 131, The Aussie Pair Is Around 0.68 And EUR/USD Above 1.0680| FXMAG.COM How to deal with excess plastic garbage - chemical recycling As consumption increases, so does production, and so does trash. On a worldwide scale, we produce 2.6 trillion pounds of trash per year. What's more, the most of it are plastic items that decompose far too long. Plastics, often colloquially referred to as plastic, can take 100 to 1000 years to decompose. In this case, too, much depends on the specificity of the discarded material. For example, a plastic bag takes about 400 years to decompose, and candy wrappers take 450 years to decompose. To change the amount of waste generated, it is recycled, but as recent data shows, this is not enough. Scientists and other activists are trying to find innovative solutions to this problem. The problem is that most plastics are simply not recyclable. And even those whose quality deteriorates every time they are reworked, meaning they will eventually end up in the landfill as well. Many environmentalists say this means we need to stop producing plastics at source and support bans or taxes on single-use plastics. But plastics industry groups are betting on a technology known as chemical recycling to break down any type of plastic into its raw components and turn it into fuel or plastic that is just as good. Chemical recycling has many advantages, e.g. we reduce the amount of waste, we do not have to produce materials from scratch or waste non-renewable resources, we do not need additional space for storing plastic waste and we are able to reduce the area of ​​existing landfills. So it may turn out to be more beneficial for the environment. Plastics recycling is failing, and the industry is betting big on a technology called chemical recycling to try and save it. So can chemical recycling help our plastic problem? Watch the full video here: https://t.co/0uDzfiPF7k pic.twitter.com/rQPPxobUKb — CNBC (@CNBC) January 3, 2023
Tesla Is Expected A Temporary Rally

New Record For Electric Car Manufacturer - Tesla Deliveries Increased By 40% Year-On-Year

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 03.01.2023 11:58
Tesla survived a difficult year, losing about $ 675 billion in market valuation. Car sales The company expected to "sell every car we make as far in the future as possible," Musk said as Tesla posted a near-record quarterly profit. Elon Musk's electric vehicle maker said Monday it delivered about 1.31 million vehicles last year, about 40% more than in 2021. The company would need to deliver more than 1.4 million vehicles to meet its initial target of increasing deliveries by 50% or more. From analyst estimates compiled by FactSet, as of December 31, 2022, Wall Street expected Tesla to report deliveries of around 427,000 in the final quarter of the year. Estimates updated in December and included in the FactSet consensus ranged from 409,000 to 433,000. Tesla said changes to manufacturing and distribution practices to help lower vehicle costs led to more cars in transit at the end of the quarter. Tesla car prices Strong vehicle prices helped Tesla generate nearly $3.3 billion in quarterly profit for the three months ended September, beating the expectations of analysts surveyed by FactSet. That's not much compared to the company's record quarterly profit of over $3.3 billion, set in the first quarter. Tesla has repeatedly raised the price of its vehicles as parts have become more expensive and new cars hard to come by due to supply chain bottlenecks. Tesla cars averaged about $57,000 in the third quarter, up from about $49,000 a year earlier, analysts polled by FactSet estimated, boosting company revenue and mitigating lower-than-expected third-quarter deliveries. Moreover, the automaker may have to cut vehicle prices by $1,800 to $4,500 from Q3 2022 levels. Shareholders Musk, Tesla's largest shareholder, sold over $15 billion in Tesla stock this year, indicating that at least some of the proceeds will be used to fund his $44 billion Twitter deal. Some investors fear he may have to sell more to close the deal. The billionaire entrepreneur said the company's board of directors is considering the idea of buying back Tesla shares and it is likely that the company will pursue a "significant buyout". He put forward the idea of a buyout of around $5 billion to $10 billion in 2023. Read next: The Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) Will Impose A Fine Of $2.2 Million On Tesla Inc| FXMAG.COM Problems The company idled its car factory in Shanghai on multiple occasions, early on because of local pandemic restrictions, then again in December as it faced a wave of Covid-19 infections among workers and suppliers. In October, Musk characterized Tesla as "recession-proof", saying, "We're going to pedal to the metal whether it's raining or shining. So we're not reducing our production in any significant way, whether in a recession or not." But now, Musk suggested exacly last month that the higher interest-rate environment was hurting vehicle demand. In a year-end sales push, Tesla offered discounts to many buyers who agreed to take delivery of vehicles before January. Demand problems will continue until Tesla introduces a cheaper vehicle in large numbers, which is not on the horizon any time soon. Tesla share price Shares have been falling since December 9. The biggest decrease in the month and the beginning of the year was recorded on December 27, 110, at the level of 109.10. It then surged to above 120. The new year started with Tesla stock price below 120 (118.93). So the trade will be on the tenth day around 120. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
The Current War Between China And The United States Over Semiconductor Chips Is Gaining Momentum

Concerns Among Investors About The Demand Outlook For The Products Of Apple

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 04.01.2023 08:57
Summary:  The share price of Tesla plunged 12% following releasing weak deliveries in December. Apple’s market value fell below US2 trillion for the first time since March 2021 on weakening demand for its MacBooks, the Apple Watch and Airpods. The USD bounced by 1% against EUR and GBP. Crude oil slid by 4% on higher OPEC daily production. On Wednesday, all eyes are on the US ISM Manufacturing Index, JOLTS job openings, and the December Fed minutes. What’s happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) slid with significant weakness in Apple and Tesla U.S. equities started the year weaker on Tuesday. S&P 500 slid 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 lost 0.8%. Energy, plunging 3.6% on a 4% decline in crude oil, was the worst-performing sector within the S&P 500 Index. Communication Services, up 1.4%, advanced the most, with Meta (META:xnas) up 3.7% and Alphabet (GOOGL:xnas) up 1.1%. Nasdaq 100 was dragged down particularly hard by the declines in the share prices of Apple (AAPL:xnas) which accounts for 13% index weighting and Tesla (TSLA:xnas) which accounts for 2.5% index weighting. Tesla fell by 12.3% after releasing weak December delivery data. Apple slid 3.4% on a Nikkei report suggesting potential weak demand for the company’s products, taking the company’s market value down below USD2 trillion, the first time since March 2021. Apple accounted for 13% in Nasdaq 100 weighting. Tesla plunged 12.3% on weak December deliveries Tesla announced Q4 deliveries of 405.3K coming short of the estimate at 420.8K and significantly below the 439.7K units produced in Q4. In this article, Peter Garnry suggests that Telsa is facing problems of elevated battery costs that forced the EV maker to raise prices and excessive electricity costs in Europe that weighs on demand. Some demand in the U.S. in Q4 might have been pushed into Q1 2023 by the EV purchase tax credit in the Inflation Reduction Act. The share price of Tesla plunged 12.3% on Tuesday, its largest decline by percentage since September 2020. Apple fell by 3.4% on reportedly weakening demand for its MacBooks, the Apple Watch and Airpods A Nikkei article reported that “Apple has notified several suppliers to build fewer components for Airpods, the Apple Watch and MacBooks for the first quarter, citing weakening demand”. The article stirred up concerns among investors about the demand outlook for the products of the consumer electronics giant. US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) rallied with yields on the 10-year 14bps richer to 3.74% Bids returned to Treasuries as German Bunds jumped in price following German CPI coming in softer than expectations.  Yields on 10-year German bunds fell by 6bps on Tuesday and by 18 bps since the New Year. On the tape, former Fed Chair Aland Greenspan and former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said a not-too-severe U.S. recession was the most likely outcome. The 10-year segment led the rally, with yields 14bps richer to 3.74%. Yields on the 2-year fell by 6bps to 4.37%. The corporate issuance calendar was busy with 19 investment grade bonds for a total of over 30 billion issued on Tuesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIZ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) On its first day of trading in 2023, Hang Seng Index opened lower but rallied to post a 1.8% gain. Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH.I) climbed 1.9%. Chinese telco, consumer, electricity utilities, pharmaceuticals, autos, and Macao casino operators led the charge higher. It is widely expected that the border between the mainland and Hong Kong will be reopened as soon as January 8, 2023. In addition, a rebound in mobility data in some large Chinese cities, such as Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Beijing helped market sentiment. Investors brushed off the weak December NBS PMI reports released during the holiday and the Caixin PMI on Tuesday and the seemingly inevitable surge and spread of Covid inflections during the initial stage of relaxation of pandemic containment in China to focus on the improved economic outlook in mainland China and Hong Kong for 2023. Southbound flows into Hong Kong amounted to a decent HKD4.25 billion, of which buying in Tencent (00700:xhkg) accounted for HKD1.58 billion. Following the release of strong December sales, BYD rose by 4.7%, Li Auto by 10.5%, and Xpeng by 7.8%.  China’s CSI 300 Index gained 0.4%, with computing, communication, media, and defense names gaining the most. FX: the dollar gained 1% versus EUR and GBP As Saxo’s Head of FX Strategy, John Hardy, put it in his note, USD wakes up with a bang ass US market come back on line. Softer CPI prints from Germany triggered selling in the Euro and saw EURUSD down 1%. The pound sterling also slid 1% versus the dollar. The Yen held on relatively well, after briefly strengthening to 129.52, finished the day little changed at around 131. Crude oil fell nearly 4% on higher OPEC production WTI crude fell 3.9% on Tuesday following production by OPEC countries increased by 150,000 barrels to 29.14 million barrels a day, partly due to higher output from Nigeria. The warmer-than-normal weather in the U.S. and Europe also weighed on the market sentiment. What to consider? German December CPI softer than expectations Germany released headline CPI at 8.6% Y/Y below the street estimate of 9.0%Y/Y and November’s 10.0%. Germany’s EU Harmonized CPI came in at 9.6% Y/Y, falling from the 10.2% expected and 11.3% in November. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, JOLTS Job openings, and the December FOMC minutes to focus on Wednesday We have a busy economic calendar in the U.S. on Wednesday. The ISM Manufacturing Index is generally considered by investors as one of the key indicators in the recession question. The Bloomberg consensus estimate is calling for a further decline into the contractionary territory to 48.5 in December from 49.0 in November. JOTLS job openings (consensus 10.05 million; Nov 10.33 million) will also be closely monitored as the data series was highlighted by Fed Chair Powell almost every time in his assessment of the state of the labor market and monetary policies. Finally, at 2pm US EST, we will have the minutes from the Fed’s December FOMC meeting. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Market Insights Today: – Apple and Tesla plunged; ISM, JOLTS, and Fed minutes the focus on Wednesday - 4 January 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
US Inflation Slows as Spending Stalls: Glimmers of Hope for Economic Outlook

Tesla Had A Bad Start To 2023, US Treasury Yields Fell Sharply

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 04.01.2023 09:10
Summary:  US equities got off to a choppy start in 2023 with a slightly weak session yesterday, but with notable weakness in high profile companies like Tesla after it reported weak Q4 deliveries, while market cap leader Apple posted a new cycle low. The US dollar traded was choppy in volatile trading but generally ended the day on the strong side, even as US treasury yields dropped. Gold chopped back and forth but surged back toward yesterday’s highs overnight.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures started the year’s first day of trading yesterday with the element that they had plenty of in 2022, namely volatility. The index futures started rallying in the beginning of the session helped by positive sentiment in Europe and China trading up as much as 1.2% at the intraday high, but spillover effect on sentiment from the slide in Tesla shares and related technology stocks took S&P 500 futures down 0.4%. The intraday price range in S&P 500 futures was more than 2%. The first important macro events of the year are the ISM Manufacturing and the JOLTS Job Openings report for December which could move interest rates and inflation expectations and thus US equity futures later in the session. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index rallied for the second straight session in 2023 rising by 1.8%. Hang Seng TECH Index surged 3.4%, led by Alibaba (09988:xhkg)  soared more than 7% following the news that the Chinese authorities approved an increase in registered capital of the consumer finance unit of Ant Group. Shares of Chinese developers and management services providers climbed on anticipation of state support from the state-owned Economic Daily emphasizing the importance of the real estate sector to the economy in its editorial. Longfor (00960:xhkg) and Country Garden Services (06098:xhkg) each jumped around 10%, being the top performers of the Hang Seng Index. Sunny Optical (02382:xhkg), a supplier to Apple (AAPL:xnas), plunged 12% on analyst downgrades and a Nikkei report that “Apple has notified several suppliers to build fewer components for Airpods, the Apple Watch and MacBooks for the first quarter, citing weakening demand”. CSI 300 is unchanged. FX: Yesterday’s USD rally moderates. AUD surges on possible end of Chinese coal ban The US dollar surged yesterday for no readily apparent reason, even as US treasury yields dropped and risk sentiment was strong early in the day. The rest of the day saw very choppy action that suggests currency traders are struggling to find their feet in 2023, although the greenback generally ended the day stronger than where it started ahead of the first important macro data of the year this Friday. Overnight, the Aussie surged sharply, erasing the AUDUSD losses yesterday and seeing AUDNZD to new local highs as Chinese authorities discussed a partial lifting of the Australia coal import ban. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) Crude oil futures, led by gasoline and diesel, turned sharply lower during its first full day of trading with the early 2023 focus being centred around a short-term deterioration in demand as China struggles with Covid-19, milder weather reduces demand for heating fuels and the IMF’s latest warning that one third of the world may suffer recession in 2023. OPEC increased production by 150k b/d last month according to a Bloomberg survey as Nigeria, currently producing below its quota, ramped up production. US production meanwhile is expected to rise by just 600k b/d in 2023, with the pre-pandemic record peak at 13m b/d remaining out of sight. On the supply side Russia’s December shipments of oil slumped to the lowest for 2022 driven by storm disruptions and a shortage of vessels. In Brent, the uptrend from early December looks challenged with a break below $81 signalling further loss of momentum, initially towards $79.65.  Gold (XAUUSD), silver (XAGUSD) and platinum (XPTUSD) This trio of investment and semi-industrial metals, led by gold’s break higher, are the only commodities trading in the black this week. On Tuesday, sudden dollar strength was being offset by a sharp fall in US treasury yields, both highlighting weak risk sentiment at the beginning of a new trading year. In general, we are looking for a price friendly 2023 for investment metals supported by recession and stock market valuation risks, an eventual peak in central bank rates combined with the prospect of a weaker dollar and inflation not returning to the expected sub-3% level by yearend. However, in the short-term continued dollar strength - as risk appetite elsewhere suffers - may prove too hard to ignore, thereby raising the prospect for a correction and better buying levels. Focus on today’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s US job report. Key support in gold at $1801 with trendline resistance at $1852 being followed by $1878. Yields on US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) fall sharply on US first trading day of 2023 US Treasury yields fell sharply all along the curve, but fell the most at the longer end of the curve, with the 10-year yield benchmark down almost 15 basis points to 3.73%. Some of the move was in sympathy with European yields, which dropped on a much softer than expected German CPI print.  The 10-year US Treasury yield level to watch to the upside is perhaps the 4.00% area ahead of the 4.34% high from October, which is a 15-year high. To the downside, the cycle lows below 3.50% (intraday cycle low was 3.40%) are the focus, with the first major test of the US Treasury market up this Friday on the release of US jobs data and the December ISM Services index and next week on the December CPI report on Thursday, January 12. What is going on? US House Republicans so far failing to elect new Speaker of the House A minority of more Trumpist-leaning Republicans are holding back the election of Kevin McCarthy to become the next Speaker, as he failed to win approval after three rounds of voting yesterday. The House is unable to conduct any kind of business until a new Speaker is elected, and the degree of dysfunction in the House over the next two years will likely be determined by the identity of the leader in the house. Inflation is cooling down in Germany Germany December CPI rose 8.7 % year-over-year against prior 10.4 %. The monthly decline is astounding: minus 1.0 % from November to December. In parallel, inflation also slowed down in Germany’s largest state by population – North Rhine Westphalia – with CPI out at minus 1.0 % month-over-month. This matters because it is one of the major industrial states. The drop is partially explained by the drop in energy prices and the one-time government support to reduce the gas bills of households and SMEs. This means the decline in inflation may not last. It will highly depend on the evolution of energy prices this winter. But this is a welcome figure as we kick off the new year. Officials in China discuss easing Australia coal import ban Bloomberg is breaking this story, citing sources familiar with the matter, which claim that bureaucrats are proposing allowing a few major coal consumers in China to resume imports as soon as April 1. The Australian dollar jumped sharply in response, as did Australian coal exporters, and even major miner BHP Billiton posted a strong session overnight. Tesla shares plunge 12% to lowest levels since August 2020 Tesla had a bad start to 2023 as the EV maker reported worse than expected Q4 deliveries Tuesday night trailing the productions figures for the quarter expanding the gap between production and deliveries to a new high. Investors are speculating whether Tesla is facing a demand issue and the recent implemented discounts to entice buyers are still in place suggesting Tesla is willing to sacrifice its operating margin at the expense of keeping up demand to maintain high utilization of its factory capacity. Read our take on Tesla in yesterday’s equity note. What are we watching next? November JOLTS Job openings up later, FOMC Minutes up tonight The JOLTS survey of job openings dropped in October back toward the low for 2022 at just above 10.3M as the November release today is expected to post a new cycle low near 10.0M. Still, these numbers are far north of the previous pre-pandemic record near 7.5M. The FOMC minutes tonight may not move markets much, but are worth watching for where FOMC members are expressing their inflation concerns. Earnings to watch The earnings calendar is light in the first week of the new year, but in a couple of weeks the first Q4 earnings releases will begin to be released. The Q4 earnings season will continue its focus on margin pressures related to input costs on employees and raw materials including energy. This week’s earnings focus is Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) and Conagra Brands, with WBA expected to -3% revenue growth y/y for the quarter that ended on 30 November adding to the series of quarters with negative revenue growth. Conagra Brands is expected to deliver 7% revenue growth y/y for the quarter that ended on 30 November as the manufacturer of packaged foods is able to pass on inflation to its customers. Thursday: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, Constellation Brands, RPM International Friday: Naturgy Energy Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0745 – France December Flash CPI 0815-0900 – Eurozone final December Services PMI 0930 – UK Nov. Consumer Credit/Mortgage Approvals 1500 – US Dec. ISM Manufacturing  1500 – US Nov. JOLTS Jobs openings 1900 – US FOMC Minutes 2130 – API's Weekly Crude and Fuel Inventory Report 0145 – China Dec. Caixin Services PMI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 4, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

The Oil Market Is Showing A Strong Local Drop In Prices

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 11:32
Problems of tech companies in the US appeared again, causing the local market to fall. Similarly, the European market fell because right after a significant increase, shares of TESLA and APPLE collapsed by more than 14% and 4% respectively, resulting in a negative closing of stock indices. This shattered all hopes of a rise in demand for equities, which had been expected at the start of the new year. The forex market could not stay away from the situation of the stock market either as dollar began to rise before the opening of the US trading session. The driver was the growing expectations of lower inflation in Europe, which was influenced by the CPI data from Germany. This increased the likelihood that other global central banks will follow the Fed in taking a pause in raising interest rates. The oil market also came under pressure, showing a strong local drop in prices. Most likely, the negative sentiment will continue if the minutes of the December Fed meeting, which is due out today, do not hint at a pause in rate hikes in the 1st quarter of the new fiscal year. The labor market data not showing a slowdown in growth will give a similar effect. The turning point could be the upcoming US consumer inflation figures as markets will surely shift from bearish to bullish once the data shows a slowdown. This could be accompanied by a marked weakening of dollar. Many remain optimistic on a global reversal in markets. Forecasts for today: USD/JPY The pair is trading below 131.40. If market sentiment improves today, there will be a local recovery towards 132.50. AUD/USD The pair is trading below 0.6825. Again, if the situation in the markets stabilizes and investor sentiment improves, the pair will rise above 0.6825 and surge to 0.6900 Relevance up to 06:00 2023-01-06 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331411
Russia's Weekend Mutiny and Gold's Bounce off Support Raise Concerns; Verbal Intervention in USD/JPY and US Banking Stocks Tumble Ahead of Fed's Stress Test Results

Saxo Bank Podcast: Lifting Risk Sentiment And Seeing A Weaker US Dollar

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 04.01.2023 12:45
Summary:  Today, we note that today's inter-market picture makes far more sense than what we saw yesterday as some low inflation data in Europe is helping to drive global bond yields lower, lifting risk sentiment and seeing a weaker US dollar. This came after a volatile and confusing day yesterday. The biggest winner of the first couple of days this year has been gold, which has soared above major resistance. We also look at the latest Tesla plunge and some of the network effects that may be aggravating its decline, discuss the reversal in crude oil prices and new lows in natural gas prices and how markets may continue to flourish on signs of a weakening economy. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Read next: How Dream Sports Built Its Value, High Inflation And Its Impact On The Hedge Fund| FXMAG.COM Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Read next:Exxon And Chevron Abandon The Global Market And Focus On The Americas| FXMAG.COM Source: Podcast: Global markets getting back in synch today | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The German Purchasing Managers' Index, ZEW Economic Sentiment  And More Ahead

European Investors Got An Energy Boost From Lower Inflation Reads

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 04.01.2023 12:59
European investors got an energy boost from lower inflation reads, and the falling nat gas futures, but US investors didn’t follow up on the cheery market mood. However, US sovereign bonds gained yesterday as an indication that the latest market moves were backed by recession fears, rather than hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations… The risk-off investors will likely continue And if the first trading day of the year is any indication, we could see the holy negative correlation between stocks and bonds come back in 2023. This is what many investors think will happen. The risk-off investors will likely continue exiting stocks on profit recession – and not on hawkish Fed expectations, and they could go back to bonds and to gold instead. US economy Due today, the ISM manufacturing index will reveal if and how fast US manufacturing contracted last month. If yesterday’s PMI is any hint, we could see a fastening contraction in ISM manufacturing, which would then boost recession worries, hit the stocks, but not necessarily the bonds and gold. Also, JOLTS data will show if, and by how much the US job openings fell in November. Read next: Exxon And Chevron Abandon The Global Market And Focus On The Americas| FXMAG.COM But regardless of the ISM data, and the US job openings, the FOMC minutes will likely confirm that the Fed remains serious about further tightening policy, even if it slows the pace of interest rate hikes. Remember, if the Fed decided to go slower on its rate hikes, it’s to be able to go higher! And the more resilient the US economy and the US jobs market, the more eager the Fed will be to continue its journey north… Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:35 European stocks rally but… 3:04 US stocks fall, as bonds rise… 4:08 … hinting at the eventual return of negative correlation btw stocks and bonds? 5:51 …from which Gold could also benefit? 6:30 What to watch today? 7:38 Oh Tesla, Apple and Exxon… 9:06 Do you dare going back to Chinese stocks? Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Stock #bond #correlation #USD #EUR #JPY #XAU #economic #data #recession #pricing #Tesla #Apple #Exxon #crude #oil #DAX #CAC #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
FX Daily: Upbeat China PMIs lift the mood

The Chinese Authorities Are Considering To Relax Restrictions On Highly-Leveraged Property Developers

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 09.01.2023 08:32
Summary:  U.S. stocks surged over 2% following the ISM services index shrinking to 49.6 and average hourly earnings growth slowing to 0.3% M/M in December from a downward revised 0.4% in November (previously reported 0.6%). Investors became more optimistic about inflation having peaked because of these unexpected weaknesses in services and wages. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes plunged 16 basis points to 3.56%. The dollar fell against all G10 currencies with the Dollar Index shedding 1.1%. Gold and copper advanced. What’s happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) surged more than 2% on slowing wage growth and activities in services in contraction Bad news once again was good news for equities last Friday when the U.S. released slower wage growth in December as well as in November (a downward revision) and the ISM services index plunged unexpectedly by 6.9 points to 49.6 and into the contraction territory.  Investors noted that Fed Chair Powell had emphasized in his recent speeches that the price of core services other than housing, which was driven by wages and service sector activities, is the most important price category to consider for understanding the future evolution of inflation. Despite the higher-than-expected prints in non-farm payrolls and a lower unemployment rate, Nasdaq 100 rose 2.8% and S&P 500 climbed 2.3%. All 11 sectors within the S&P500 gained, with materials, up 3.4%, leading, followed by information technology, and real estate. Tesla recovered from early losses on cutting prices in China and bounced 2% Tesla China has cut again the price of its Model 3 by 13.5% to RMB 20,990 (USD3,350) and Model Y by 10% to RMB 25,990 (USD3,790) in China within three months from the prior price cut.  Following the news, shares of Tesla (TSLA:xnas) plunged as much as 7.7% in early trading but recovered throughout the day and managed to finish the Friday session 2% higher. Costco (COST:xnys) surged 7.2% on strong December sales Costco reported U.S. comparable sales rose 6.4% in December 2022, above the 5% expected by street analysts. The strong holding sales performance saw the bulk retailer’s share price advance 7.2% last Friday. US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) soared with yields on the 10-year notes 16bps richer to 3.56% Treasuries were bid following the growth in average hourly earnings slowed to 0.3% M/M and 4.6% Y/Y from a revised down 0.4% M/M (previously reported 0.6%) and 4.8% Y/Y (previously reported 5.1%). Yields oscillated for a while as investors weighed the soft wage growth against the solid payrolls and fall in unemployment rates. Decisive declines in yields came after the release of the ISM Services Index which unexpectedly collapsed to 49.6 in December from 56.5 in November, indicating contracting activities in the service sector. A service sector in contraction may help cool down inflation in core services excluding housing which is the focus of Fed Chair Powell. Yields on the 2-year notes fell by 21bps to 4.25% and those on the 10-year notes became 16bps richer to 3.56%. What should you be watching today in equities across APAC; Copper, gold, iron ore The Australian share market (ASXSP200.I) opened 1% higher today, following the stellar close of US shares. This week we could also see some money deployed that was removed from the market from the end of US financial year two weeks ago. In terms of key pockets of potential gains to watch; Commodity stocks could likely to do well as there is room for the Fed to not be as hawkish. The copper price rose 2.4% to its highest level since November, which will could likely boost copper stocks today and this week, and spot gold price jumped 1.8% to a range it last traded in June last year. Also keep an eye on coal stocks this week, as coal demand usually peaks in January and Chinese authorities are in discussion on a partial end to the Australian coal ban. So keep an eye on Whitehaven Coal and New Hope. Meanwhile, iron ore equities may be possible laggards. Vale, Champion Iron, Fortescue Metals, BHP and Rio will be on watch as the Iron ore price (SCOA) has fallen 1.3% from its five month high as buying of iron ore is expected to grind lower as China heads to lunar new year holidays. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong stocks consolidated in a choppy session. Shares of Chinese developers surged in the morning session, following China’s central bank and bank regulator jointly issued a directive to allow banks in cities with declining home prices to lower mortgage interests below the floor dictated current policies. Adding to fuel the rally in property developers was the comment from China’s Minster of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in an interview with the People’s Daily, pledging support to the financing needs of developers and reports suggesting that China is considering relaxing the “three red lines” that constraining highly leveraged developers from getting new financing. Stocks however turned to the south after the lunch break. President of the China Society of Economic Reform said the Chinese Government will roll out “some forceful measures” to redistribute income and “establish a mechanism to regulate wealth accumulation” in order to advance “common prosperity”.   Hang Seng Index finished last Friday 0.3% lower. Alibaba Health (00241:xhkg), Meituan (03690:xhkg), and Haidilao (06862:xhkg) were among the biggest losers with the Hang Seng Index. EV stocks fell, following the news that Tesla China has cut again the price of its Model 3 and Model Y in China within three months from the prior price cut. In A-shares, China’s CSI300 advanced by 0.3% with solar names, lithium battery makers, electric equipment, non-ferrous metal, petrochemicals, and basic chemicals leading. FX: the dollar declined versus G10 currencies on Friday The USD posed a bullish breakout from the three-week range at the start of 2023 but aggressively snapped back after a disappointing PMI release on Friday as 10-year yields dipped back towards 3.55%. NOK, AUD and NZD were the biggest gainers against the USD on Friday, with AUD also benefitting from China reopening. AUDNZD remains supported above 1.0800 with USDCNH testing support at 6.8200 on the Chinese reopening wave with extra vigour via strong PBoC midpoint fixes and measures aimed at propping up the ailing real estate sector. USDJPY slid to 132 with BOJ Governor Kuroda sticking to dovish intentions but PM Kishida once again saying over the weekend that he will have 'discussions' with new BOJ governor. The Aussie dollar flagged a bullish signal, crossing above the 200-day moving average The US dollar suffered its longest streak of weekly falls in two months. So that’s supporting other currencies higher. In particular, the commodity currency, the Aussie dollar broke above its 200-day moving average, which could be seen as a bullish sign. The Aussie dollar trades at two-month highs of 68.85 US cents. What's also supporting the Aussie dollar is that China’s reopening is expected to add considerably to Australia’s GDP. Some economists predict a 0.5% addition to GDP in a year once Chinese students and tourists return. JPMorgan thinks over the next two years Aussie GDP will grow near 1% thanks to inbound Chinese students and holiday makers likely returning. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) remains volatile amid China’s chaotic reopening The first week of 2023 was tough for crude oil, with global demand concerns weighing and China outlook remaining mixed. Despite removing most virus-related restrictions, a surge in cases across the country could stifle economic activity. Meanwhile, the IMF warned that a third of the global economy could be in recession in 2023. Supply side concerns are also seen with European sanctions on Russian oil having kicked in, while OPEC has reiterated that it is willing to step in with further production cuts. WTI futures traded slightly higher to $74/barrel in Asian morning while Brent was close to $78.90. Gold (XAUUSD) advanced over 2% on weaker USD Gold is off to a positive start in 2023, and a further boost was seen on Friday after the mixed jobs report and weakness in ISM services saw a plunge in the USD. However, demand ahead of Lunar New Year is likely to stay strong, and central banks are also active in the physical market. People’s Bank of China bought another 30 tonnes of gold in December 2022, following 32 tonnes in November, boosting the country's stash of gold to 2,010 tonnes. Speculation remains rife that these are steps for China to move away from dollar-based trading as geopolitical tensions remain high. Gold prices are testing $1870 this morning and support at $1808 will be key to hold to maintain the uptrend. US CPI data due this week remains key. Copper getting in close sight of $4 as China stimulus continues Copper is leading a rebound in base metals as China looked to support its property sector. Beijing may allow some firms to add leverage by easing borrowing caps and push back the grace period for meeting debt targets. These were part of the “three red lines” policy that contributed to the downturn in recent years. HG Copper broke above resistance at the 200-day at $3.8525, and will be targeting the $4 per pound next.  Read next: The U.K. Economy Is In Trouble, Fall Of GDP Is Expected!| FXMAG.COM What to consider? US macro: Big miss in ISM services overshadows NFP gains The ADP report from last week had set up expectations for a stronger NFP print on Friday, and while the headline came in stronger and with a drop in unemployment but the market instead focused on significantly slower wage growth and the reaction was dovish, with the US dollar sagging. Still, the report doesn’t change the fact that US labor market remains tight and WSJ’s Timiraos also noted that Friday’s employment report does little to clarify how much the Fed will raise interest rates at its next policy meeting. Nonfarm payrolls showed US employers added 223,000 jobs last month, from a downwardly revised 256,000 in November, with the unemployment rate hitting a cycle low of 3.5% again. Wage growth however slowed to 4.6% YoY (0.3% MoM) in December from a revised 4.8% YoY (0.4% MoM) in November, keeping the market reaction to the overall jobs report mixed, before the big disappointment from ISM services which surprisingly dipped into contraction for the first time since May 2020 to 49.6 vs. expected 55. The forward-looking sub-indicator, new orders, fell 10.8 pts to 45.2 but details were still mixed with 11 of the 18 services sector remaining in expansion. Fed speakers continue to highlight inflation concerns A host of Fed speakers were on the wires on Friday, and key message was the need for more rate hikes still despite signs of price pressures cooling. Cook (voter) said inflation is "far too high" and "of great concern" despite recent encouraging signs, while Bostic (non-voter) said the Fed needs a target rate above 5% and he expects Fed to hold at a peak policy rate for an extended period, "well into 2024". Barkin, another non-voter, touched more on inflation saying that that the Fed is still resolute on inflation, and needs to stay on the case until inflation is sustainably back to the 2% goal. Retiring member Evans however called for a slower pace of rate hikes. The eurozone inflation is cooling down It was largely expected that the eurozone inflation would cool down in December. But the first estimate is actually much lower than forecasted, at 9.2 % versus prior 10.1 % in November. This is a positive development and it goes in the right direction, of course. But this is still a high number. Looking at the main components, energy had (without surprise) the highest annual rate in December at 25.7 %), followed by food, alcohol and tobacco (13.8 %), non-energy industrial goods (6.4%) and services (4.4%). What is worrying is that core CPI continues to increase at 5.2 % versus prior 5.0 % and expected 5.1 %. This will push the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep hiking interest rates in the short-term. But the peak in interest rates is getting closer (Mario Centeno) and the eurozone macroeconomic outlook is not that bad actually (if there is a recession underway, it is at the mild end according to the ECB chief Philip Lane). Alibaba’s Jack Ma cedes his control of Ant Group According to a statement released by the company on 7 January, Jack Ma terminated his acting-in-concert arrangement with other individuals. Under the new structure, 10 individuals, including Mr. Ma, have independent voting rights in the management of the company, as opposed to the prior arrangement that gave Mr. Ma indirect control of 53,46% of the voting rights. Mr. Ma’s stake in Ant Group is reduced to 6.2% from 10.6%. China’s government think-tank said China is launching measures to regulate wealth accumulation President of the China Society of Economic Reform, which is under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said in a reform forum that the Chinese Government is launching “some forceful measures” to redistribute income, increase taxes, social security, and transfer payments, and “establish a mechanism to regulate wealth accumulation” in order to advance “common prosperity”. Establishing a mechanism to regulate wealth accumulation was first mentioned in President Xi’s work report delivered at the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress as a means to advance common prosperity. China is reportedly considering to relax the three red-line policy that restrained developers from borrowing According to Bloomberg, the Chinese authorities are considering to relax restrictions on highly-leveraged property developers from increasing their borrowings. The uplift of the restrictions would be important addition to the recent support measures to the real estate sector in China. The three red lines that were introduced in 2020 restrict developers’ ability to borrow if their debts have gone beyond the stipulated limits relative to assets, net debt, or cash. For our look ahead at markets this week – Read/listen to our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Market Insights Today: Contraction in US ISM services and soft wage growth overshadows strong jobs numbers – 9 January 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Analysis Of Tesla: A Temporary Corrective Rally Should Not Come As A Surprise

Lowering The Price Of Electric Vehicles Is Supposed To Be Tesla's Unusual Strategy To Generate Demand In The US Market

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 16.01.2023 10:40
Tesla has slashed the prices of some of its vehicles sold in the US by nearly 20% to lure in new buyers. The cuts, which include Tesla's deal, are likely to allow some buyers to qualify for the $7,500 federal tax credit. Tesla cut prices Tesla's decision to lower the price of several of its models will allow more buyers to qualify for the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit. Tesla has lowered the price of its entry-level Model Y crossover to $52,990 and lowered the price of the high-performance version of the Model 3 sedan to $53,990. The car company has slashed the price of its entry-level Model Y crossover by almost 20% to $52,990, excluding some fees. This allows buyers to qualify for the tax incentive by placing the vehicle below the $55,000 ceiling. Tesla's 14% cut to the price of the high-performance version of the Model 3 sedan, which currently sells for $53,990. The Model 3 and Model Y are Tesla's best-selling vehicles and account for the bulk of the company's production. The company also lowered the prices of its Model S luxury sedans and Model X sport utility vehicles. The price cuts come a week after Tesla slashed prices in China by as much as about 13% after shipments of cars made in Shanghai fell in December. The company has also lowered prices in Europe. A tax credit reduces your income tax dollar for dollar, so the EV credit is like getting up to $7,500 off the purchase price of your car. The credit is nonrefundable, meaning you won't get a tax refund for any unused portion of the credit, and you can't carry it over to use on a future tax return. The credits are meant to be an incentive for car buyers to switch to electric, but the changes are confusing for buyers to navigate, especially as they keep changing. Read next: The Swedish Real Estate Market Will See Significant Price Drops| FXMAG.COM Tax credits for electric vehicles Tax credits for electric vehicles were created in 2009, but late last year the government changed many of the rules. Removed the limit on the number of vehicles sold per manufacturer and added limits based on vehicle price, manufacturer location, and taxpayer income. Vehicles must be assembled in North America and must have a manufacturer's suggested retail price of $80,000 for vans, SUVs, and pick-ups, or $55,000 for all other vehicles. Taxpayers with a modified adjusted gross income of $150,000 for individuals or $300,000 for joint filers are no longer eligible for the tax credit. Revenue limits apply to vehicles that are "put on the road" from January 1, which is the date of commencement of use. So if you buy an EV this year, income limits apply. If you bought an electric car last year but haven't picked it up by this year, income limits also apply. Tesla share prices Tesla's share price this year rose from 108.10 to 123.22. The first drop occurred on Friday. Tesla shares fell 0.9% on Friday. The stock fell about 65% last year, its worst annual performance. The stock sell-off came amid the temporary closure of Tesla's Chinese car factory, recession fears and Musk's focus on running Twitter, which he bought in October last year.The current price is at 122.40. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
US Inflation Slows as Spending Stalls: Glimmers of Hope for Economic Outlook

Indonesia Is Promoting Investment In Electric Vehicles (Tesla And BYD Group)

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 17.01.2023 09:49
The popularity of cars is increasing, and there is also a growing desire for factories producing these vehicles to be established in a given region. To this end, Indonesia is closing agreements with Tesla and BYD Group. In this article: Global integration Indonesia is finalizing deals with Chinese automaker BYD Group and US automaker Tesla The German insurer has proved very resilient to these conditions Global integration Globalization has meant that more and more countries cooperate on many levels. An example of economic integration is the European Union. The European Union is a supranational political and economic union of 27 member states that are located primarily in Europe. Countries are struggling with economic and political problems together. The year 2022 especially showed how important integration is and can be effective. From the global economic slowdown and climate change to the cost of living crisis and high levels of debt: there is no easy way to overcome this. Added to this are geopolitical tensions, which make it even more difficult to solve important global problems. In a global economy plagued by low growth and high inflation, we need a much stronger trading mechanism. Dislocations caused by commercial and technological changes have hurt some communities. Public support for economic openness has declined in several countries. And since the global financial crisis, cross-border flows of goods and capital have stabilized. So not everyone has benefited from global integration. This can cause an increase in fragmentation. The increase in the probability of fragmentation may be of concern as all economies are currently trying to implement climate programs, as well as deal with the problems caused by the coronavirus pandemic in the supply chain. Global economic integration has slowed over the past decade amid rising trade restrictions. See our latest blog for how the world can prevent further fragmentation. https://t.co/832Ue4jWeb pic.twitter.com/nfNUKPUccc — IMF (@IMFNews) January 16, 2023 Indonesia is finalizing deals with Chinese automaker BYD Group and US automaker Tesla Many countries in the world are trying to make electric cars more popular. Indonesia is aggressively promoting investment in batteries and electric vehicles. In order not only to promote, Indonesia is taking action. Indonesia is finalizing deals with Chinese automaker BYD Group and US automaker Tesla to become Southeast Asia's electric vehicle manufacturing hub. Such activities can attract not only investors, but also a qualified workforce, which cripples the economy. Investments in new technologies, ie in the future, will make the country attractive to young people and may attract them. Indonesia is finalizing agreements with China's automaker BYD and U.S. carmaker Tesla to invest in electric vehicle production facilities in the country, a senior cabinet minister said. Read more: https://t.co/1M6j75Ksrj pic.twitter.com/BFqlvwWKqJ — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) January 17, 2023 The German insurer has proved very resilient to these conditions The year was undoubtedly difficult in every respect, especially for investments. 2022 was one of the worst environmental years for stocks and bonds, but the director of Allianz, one of the world's largest investors, believes the German insurer has proved very resilient to these conditions. Market environment was one of the worst imaginable in 2022, insurer Allianz says https://t.co/lFmdTOqKYU — CNBC (@CNBC) January 17, 2023
Bank of Japan to welcome Kazuo Ueda as its new governor

The Bank Of Japan Kept Its Below-Zero Interest Rate, S&P 500 Failed To Extend Gains

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 18.01.2023 10:47
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its below-zero interest rate and its faltering yield curve control policy unchanged. No-action sent the Japanese 10-year yield tumbling by up to 14 bp – that’s almost a 30% plunge. The dollar-yen spiked above the 131.50 level, losing more than 2.50% against the greenback. Equities In equities, confusion and lack of direction best described yesterday’s sentiment in the US. US futures US futures were pointing at a negative start, then turned higher in early trading as we heard a lot of talk about "green shoots" and "bright spots" in the economy when Chinese Vice Premier talked in Davos yesterday saying that he expects China's economy to return to normal this year. S&P 500  The S&P 500 shortly traded above the 4000 level, but reality soon hit the fan with mixed earnings from Goldman and Morgan Stanley, and brought the top sellers in. earnings And the top sellers kept selling into the 4000 level to the end of the session. Finally, the index closed the session 0.20% lower, spot on the 2022’s down-trending channel top and above the critical 200-DMA. The first set of earnings doesn’t support a sustainable move above that 200-DMA level. Read next: Alibaba And Its Share Buyback Program Which Is Supported By Ryan Cohen, Microsoft Corp. Plans To Incorporate AI Tools| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:45 BoJ fights the hawks 3:00 FX update 5:29 S&P500 offered at 4000… 6:59 …as mixed earnings hammer optimism 7:59 Tesla better bid despite Jefferies PT cut 8:36 Meme traders refuse to buy Alibaba Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #BoJ #YCC #JPY #JGB #USD #EUR #GBP #inflation #bank #earnings #Alibaba #Tesla #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      
It Was Possible That Tesla Would Move Closer To Resistance

Elon Musk Is Facing Trial In Fraud Trial Over 2018 Tweets

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 19.01.2023 11:47
Elon Musk to face trial in securities fraud lawsuit over 2018 tweets suggesting possible private takeover of Tesla Inc. The case is unusual because securities fraud cases are usually resolved before trial, such as by settlement. Glen Littleton The investor, Glen Littleton, sued Tesla, Musk and then-Tesla board members, claiming that Musk's tweets were fraudulent and cost investors billions by spurring Tesla stock, options and bond prices to fluctuate. He is seeking compensation for these losses. The defendants said the plaintiff would not be able to prove to the jury that the testimony was essentially false. Musk was considering privatizing Tesla, the defendants said, even if some of his claims about the deal may not have been literally accurate. Musk and Tesla Musk said he is indeed considering privatizing Tesla and believes he has the backing of Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund. Lawsuit over Elon Musk's 2018 tweets. Musk and Tesla agreed in 2018 to pay $20 million to settle civil charges brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission over the same tweets. Judge rejects Elon Musk's request to move trial over Tesla's tweets During jury selection on Tuesday, attorneys and Judge Chen focused on potential jurors' personal views on Musk and his acquisition of Twitter Inc., as well as on the extent to which they could put those views aside. Musk and Tesla's attorneys asked Judge Chen to move the case to Texas on the grounds that the Bay Area jurors were exposed to excessive negative publicity about Musk. Judge Chen denied that request late last week. U.S. District Judge Edward Chen held a hearing on the case Friday morning and said the trial will begin next week in San Francisco. Prior to the trial, the court sent questionnaires to about 190 prospective jurors asking for their views on Musk and other issues to help determine if they had prejudices that would prevent them from sitting on a jury. Judge Chen said he reviewed the responses and that about 49 of them reflected Musk's and Tesla's mixed views, about 27 seemed sympathetic to the defendants, and about 76 showed negative attitudes. Other responses seemed neutral. The jury trial in San Francisco is scheduled to continue until February 1. Read next: Un Secretary General Antonio Guterres Encouraged The Transition To Green Energy At The World Economic Forum In Davos, The Chinese Economy May Surprise You Positively| FXMAG.COM Musk in court Musk will take the stand on Wednesday, about two months after he did so in Delaware over his Tesla pay package. Musk last spoke two months ago in a Delaware lawsuit over his Tesla pay package. In 2021, he appeared in a Delaware Commercial Court to defend Tesla's acquisition of SolarCity Corp. for about $2.1 billion in 2016. The judge sided with Musk, finding that Tesla did not overpay because the Tesla group was accused by shareholders. This decision has been appealed. Also on the list of potential witnesses are Tesla's CEO Robyn Denholm, board members Ira Ehrenpreis, James Murdoch and Kimbal Musk, the CEO's brother. You can also call the head of investor relations, Martin Viech. Tesla share prices Meanwhile, Tesla has slashed prices across its entire range of vehicles, with some of last week's US cuts approaching 20% in an effort to boost demand. Tesla's share price started to rise again in the new year, but from Tuesday it started to fall again. During those days, the stock fell from 131.49 to 126.71. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
Bitcoin Extends Rally, Microsoft & Tesla Will Report Earnings This Week

Bitcoin Extends Rally, Microsoft & Tesla Will Report Earnings This Week

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 23.01.2023 10:29
US stocks, and Bitcoin rallied on Friday, boosted by gains in tech stocks on surprisingly strong Netflix results, Google’s job cut announcement and dovish hints from Federal Reserve (Fed) members. Earnings This week, the quiet period for Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will help us digest what has been said over the past weeks and focus on earnings!Microsoft, Johnson&Johnson, General Electric,Texas Instruments, Intel, Tesla Mastercard, Visa, Chevron and American Express are among companies that will go to the earnings confessional this week. Big Tech earnings projections are down by about 5% since October. Yet, expectations went sufficiently low that there is plenty of room for a positive surprise, as has been the case with Netflix. Forex In the FX, the US dollar kicked off the week under pressure. The EURUSD already hit the 1.09 mark early in the session. Cable advanced to 1.2450. The barrel of American crude posted its second straight week of advance, though the 100-DMA hasn’t been cleared… just yet! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:45 US stocks reverse losses 2:29 Bitcoin extends rally 3:14 Digesting Fed expectations into the FOMC meeting 4:40 Microsoft & Tesla will report earnings this week 6:07 EURUSD hits 1.09; sterling, Loonie are also better bid against USD 8:13 Crude oil eyes $82pb resistance Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Microsoft #Tesla #earnings #Fed #expectations #USD #EUR #GBP #CAD #crude #oil #Bitcoin #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
It Was Possible That Tesla Would Move Closer To Resistance

There Have Been Concerns That Tesla Price Cut Could Trigger A Price War

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 23.01.2023 11:25
Tesla's price cuts sparked mixed reactions from investors and Wall Street analysts. Some suggested the move was made in response to waning demand. Others saw it as Tesla putting pressure on competitors. In addition, in the coming week, investors await quarterly earnings reports from Tesla, Microsoft Corp. , Intel Corp. and other large companies for the latest information on how they are doing in difficult economic conditions. Price war? For now, traditional automakers that don't have Tesla's EV scale have low profit margins or are losing money on their models. Tesla's price cuts are likely to put pressure on car companies to further reduce the cost of electric vehicles and could eventually lead to a price war. Tesla is doing well The number of car buyers researching Tesla surged after a price cut in early January. The Model Y was the second most searched vehicle on the website, with the Model 3 moving up 36 places. The starting price for the Model Y is currently around $53,000, down from around $66,000. That's still more than the entry-level Mach-E model, but below some of Ford's higher-end EVs. The base price of the Model Y is about $10,000 less than the starting price of the General Motors Co Cadillac Lyriq, a similarly sized SUV that the automaker is launching. Shortly after the price cut, applications for financing Tesla vehicles tripled at Tenet, a New York-based start-up that provides financing to buyers of electric vehicles. Which can be summed up by saying that the influx of customers remains at a high level. Read next: SEO’s Program That Aims To Transform The Structure Of The US Market| FXMAG.COM Ford against Tesla Some car dealers say they are worried about losing customers as a result of Tesla's price moves. Ford posted record Mach-E sales last year and has strong demand for its range of electric cars. The company continues to monitor the market to stay competitive, he said. GM CEO Mary Barra and Ford CEO Jim Farley have declared their goal of finally dethroning Tesla as the top seller of electric vehicles in the US, but they are far behind for now. According to sales figures and estimates from research firm Motor Intelligence, Tesla sales accounted for approximately 65% of total U.S. electric vehicle sales in 2022, beating Ford's 7.6% and GM's 3.5%. Tesla share price The Federal Reserve's struggle to tame inflation through aggressive interest rate hikes last year has suddenly changed the outlook for big tech stocks that have pushed major stock indexes to new highs for years. Tesla shares fell 65% in 2022, its worst year ever. Meta Platforms Inc., the parent of Facebook, is down 64% and Netflix Inc. by 51%. Some are betting that technology could take over again if the Fed signals plans to move away from raising interest rates. Net purchases of a basket of eight popular tech companies by individual investors hit a recent peak in November before declining sharply towards the end of the year. Buying has since picked up slightly in the new year as tech stocks have rebounded. As for Tesla, individuals have been regular buyers since late 2021, doubling their numbers as shares slumped in late 2022. On January 10, one-day net purchases of Tesla shares hit a record $316 million. Tesla shares have definitely skyrocketed in the new year. Prices rebounded from 108.10 all the way to 135.50. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
US Inflation Slows as Spending Stalls: Glimmers of Hope for Economic Outlook

Analysts Are Still Very Bullish On Tesla Revenue Growth For 2023

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.01.2023 09:49
Summary:  US equities struggled to find a direction on Tuesday following a technical glitch on the NYSE at the open. US and EU PMIs were better than expected although the UK print was weaker than expected. Earnings results continued to disappoint especially with gloomy guidance from Verizon, 3M and Lockheed Martin, while Microsoft posted solid cloud sales. Tesla is up next on the investors’ radar, leading into the full set of tech earnings next week. Australia CPI came in stronger than expected, boosting AUD. Bank of Canada decision due today and the last rate hike of the cycle appears to be on the cards.   What’s happening in markets? Equity markets lose steam and trade cautiously ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge US equity markets were a bit dull on Tuesday investors weighing up mostly stronger than expected Microsoft earnings results, vs a weaker than expected earnings from chipmaker giant, Texas Instruments. The S&P500 (US500.I) fell 0.1% but closed above it 200-day average for the second day (a sign there are more bulls in the market than bear), while the Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) lost 0.2%. Still markets are waiting for the next major catalysts; Tesla’s results on Wednesday, then later in the week, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for December; to also gauge if the Nasdaq’s rally of 11% from its low can be sustained, especially as the PE for the Nasdaq is about 54.6 times earnings; meaning tech stocks are still quite expensive compared to their averages. The risk is if Core PCE doesn’t fall as expected from 4.7% QoQ to 3.9%, then we could see a selloff in equity markets, while the US dollar would be bought. However, the S&P500 is seemingly bullish for now, until the next tests (some of which we mentioned), click for an in depth Technical Analysis on what the next levels could be for the S&P500. Mixed Microsoft (MSFT) result has shareholders a relieved as cloud sales rise more than forecast; a sign the business could stand tall amid the murky year ahead After hours Microsoft (MSFT) shares gained 4.3% with investors relieved its revenue in constant currency rose 7% in the quarter, versus the 6.59% estimate. Microsoft’s closely watched Azure cloud-computing business, sales gained 38%, compared with predictions for a 37% increase, excluding the impact of currency fluctuations. This underscores Azure’s ability to help drive the company, even as sales of Windows software to PC makers plummeted amid a slumping market. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.32, slightly better than the $2.30  estimate, thanks to the cost cutting. Capital expenditure was $6.27 billion, less than Bloomberg estimated ($6.63 billion), while revenue slightly missed expectations hitting $52.75 billion vs the $52.93 billion estimate. FX: AUDUSD boosted by hotter-than-expected CPI A mixed day for the US dollar on Tuesday as it broadly ended the day unchanged after the tech issues with the US equity open and broadly firmer US PMIs. The move lower in yields however dragged on the USD, and Japanese yen was the biggest gainer on the G10 board. USDJPY reversed from 131 back to 130 levels at US close but seeing upward pressure again this morning in Asia. NZDUSD hovers around key resistance level of 0.65 as NZ 4Q CPI came in stronger than expected at 7.2% vs estimate of 7.1%, while Chris Hipkins was sworn in as the 41st prime minister. AUDUSD hit fresh highs of 0.7080 after the Australia CPI release came in above expectations at 7.8% YoY and 1.9% QoQ (exp 7.6% YoY and 1.6% QoQ). Meanwhile, EURUSD stays close to 1.0900 with stronger than expected Eurozone PMIs and mixed ECB speakers underpinning. Villeroy suggested the ECB will reach peak rates by the summer, although Simkus said this may be unlikely but the ECB should continue with 50bp hikes. Nagel said the ECB is not done on inflation that remains far too high, and Panetta said the ECB should not commit to any specific policy move beyond February. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) prices drop Oil prices dropped on Tuesday amid risk off tone broadly across markets amid a mixed set of earnings results. WTI prices fell 1.8% below $81/barrel while Brent was down 2.3% to sub-$86.50. OPEC+ are expected to keep oil production unchanged when they meet next week as they await clarity on Chinese demand and the impact of EU’s ban on Russian supply (from Feb 5). Meanwhile, API inventories suggested a still-tight oil market with US crude inventories rising 3.38mm barrels last week and focus will be on the official data due today. Gasoline inventories rose by 620,000 barrels after last week’s API data showed the fuel inventories rising by 2.8 million barrels last week. Distillates fell 1.929 million barrels after falling by 1.8 million bpd in the week prior. Metals see red on profit taking, while gold nudges up on the cusp of a bull market Copper declined 0.2% with investors booking profits after the copper prices have gained 32% from its low. Traders bought into Wheat, lifting Wheat up 2% as its trades at year-lows. While Gold nudged up 0.3% taking its rally off its low to 19.5%, meaning that gold is on the cusp of a bull market.  Read next: The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.70$, GBP/USD Pair Lost Its Level Of 1.24$| FXMAG.COM What to consider? US PMIs held up stronger than expected US flash PMIs for January surpassed expectations, as services rose to 46.6, above the expected 45.0 and the prior 44.7, while manufacturing lifted to 46.8 from 46.2 (exp. 46.0), which comes ahead of ISM on February 1st. The composite rose to 46.6 from 45.0, and this will probably further boost the calls in favor of a soft landing rather than a deep recession as has been the case since the start of the year due to faster-than-expected China reopening and stronger Eurozone outlook. Still, activity is in contraction and job growth is cooling, but the January print also pointed to a re-acceleration in the input cost inflation. Eurozone composite PMI returns to expansion Eurozone PMI rose to 50.2 in January from 49.3 in December and 49.8 expected, suggesting that the region may be able to skirt a recession due to a less harsh winter this season which has given room to the ECB to continue to focus on fighting underlying inflationary pressures. Manufacturing PMI was just below the key 50-mark at 48.8 but better than last month’s 47.8, while the rise of services PMI to 50.7 drove most of the gains. UK services PMI, on the other hand, fell to 48 from 49.9 in December, while manufacturing gained slightly to 46.7 in January from 45.3 previously but still remained in contraction. This suggests further signs of UK being in a recession in early 2023 and possibly a sooner pause for the BOE than the ECB. Bank of Canada decision due today, most see a 25-basis point hike tomorrow followed by a pause Most observers are looking for the Bank of Canada to hike one last time for this cycle today to take the policy rate to 4.50% and to indicate a pause to assess inflationary and labor market conditions before deciding on next steps. The Bank of Canada hiked rapidly in 2022 in an attempt to catch up with galloping inflation but has contrasted with the Fed in signalling a pause in the hike cycle before the Fed, which has been slow to signal that peak rates may be nearing. Tesla earnings on watch for margin pressure from price cuts Analysts expect revenue growth of 36% y/y and EPS of $1.12 up 64% y/y. Analysts are still very bullish on revenue growth for 2023 with expectations at 30% growth despite the recent slip in deliveries and three quarters of growing difference between production and deliveries. This is also reflected in the consensus price target at $190 vs the current price of $144. Traders and investors are also expressing a bullish take on Tesla with the put-call ratio on volume being 0.79 and the put-call open interest ratio at 0.65. The key thing to watch will be the comments on recent price cuts for several models, and how that impacts the bottom line, and whether the demand response is big enough to offset the price reduction to see the bottom line grow this year.   For a look ahead at markets this week – Read/listen to our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: Market Insights Today: Positive surprise from US and EU PMIs; Tesla earnings ahead – 25 January 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
OPEC+ Are Expected To Keeping Oil Production Unchanged, AUD/USD Trades At Its Highest Levels

OPEC+ Are Expected To Keeping Oil Production Unchanged, AUD/USD Trades At Its Highest Levels

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.01.2023 09:54
Summary:  Equity markets lose steam and trade cautiously ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The S&P500 closes above it 200-day average for the second day - a sign there are more bulls in the market than bears, but Tesla's results could rock the boat. Australian and NZ CPI blow hotter than expected. Gold is on the cusp of a bull market. Oil slides, investors buy the dip ahead of the EU ban on Russian oil. Oil prices make their biggest drop in 3 weeks; some investors see this as opportunity Equity markets lose steam and trade cautiously ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge   US equity markets were a bit dull on Tuesday with investors weighing up mostly stronger than expected Microsoft earnings results, vs a weaker than expected earnings from chipmaker giant, Texas Instruments. The S&P500(US500.I) fell 0.1% but closed above it 200-day average for the second day (a sign there are more bulls in the market than bears), while the Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) lost 0.2%. Still markets are waiting for the next major catalysts; Tesla’s results on Wednesday, then later in the week the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for December to gauge if the Nasdaq’s rally of 11% from its low can be sustained, especially as the PE for the Nasdaq is about 54.6 times earnings; meaning tech stocks are still quite expensive compared to their averages. The risk is if Core PCE doesn’t fall as expected from 4.7% QoQ to 3.9%, then we could see a selloff in equity markets, while the US dollar would be bought as hotter inflation supports the Fed keeping rates higher for longer. However, the S&P500 is seemingly bullish for now, until the next tests (some of which we mentioned), click for an in depth Technical Analysis on what the next levels could be for the S&P500. Mixed Microsoft (MSFT) result has shareholders relived as cloud sales rise more than forecast; a sign the business could stand tall amid the murky year ahead After hours Microsoft (MSFT) shares gained 4.3% with investors relieved its revenue in constant currency rose 7% in the quarter, versus the 6.59% estimate. Microsoft’s closely watched Azure cloud-computing business, sales gained 38%, compared with predictions for a 37% increase, excluding the impact of currency fluctuations. This underscores Azure’s ability to help drive the company forth, even as sales of Windows software to PC makers plummeted amid a slumping market. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.32, slightly better than the $2.30 estimate, thanks to the cost cutting. Capital expenditure was $6.27 billion, less than Bloomberg estimated ($6.63 billion), while revenue slightly missed expectations hitting $52.75 billion vs the $52.93 billion estimate. Commodities see red on profit taking, while gold nudges up on the cusp of a bull market   Oil dropped, with WTI falling $1.8% below $81 after as OPEC+ are expected to keeping oil production unchanged when they meet next week as they await clarity on Chinese demand and the impact of EU’s ban on Russian supply (from Feb 5). Copper declined 0.2% with investors booking profits after the copper prices gained 32% from their low. Traders bought into Wheat, lifting the Wheat price up 2% as its trades at year lows. While Gold nudged up 0.4%, taking its total rally off its low to 19.5%, meaning gold is on the cusp of a bull market. Be mindful that we also think gold could also face profit taking, or a consolidation. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy discusses that here.  Australia CPI came out hotter than expected. Focus is on oil’s biggest drop in 3 weeks with some investors buying the dip  After Australia’s ASX200(ASXSP200.I) rallied for five straight days, the market fell like a knife on Wednesday after CPI came out hotter than expected supporting the notion that the RBA can keep rates higher for longer, despite the services sector remaining in contractionary phase. You have to remember Australian CPI has now on numerous occasions been hotter than expected. So given the market is up 16% from its low, we are seeing traders and investors book in profits ahead of the public holiday tomorrow and ahead of next week's RBA decision. Oil stocks such as Santos, Woodside, WorleyParsons, Ampol trade lower but some longer term investors would be seeing this pull back as an opportunity to buy the dip. Why? Oil prices remain supported ahead of EU’s ban on Russian oil coming up (Feb 5), which will restrict oil supply, plus we’re seeing APAC air travel rev up and this is expected to continue over the medium term; which is also driving demand for diesel and underpinning oil demand. In FX the Aussie dollar is on the cusp of a key event   The Aussie dollar vs the US (AUDUSD) trades at its highest levels since August, 70.64 US, after AU CPI came out showing prices are up 7.8% YoY, vs 7.6% expected. Core mean CPI rose 6.9% YoY, also hotter than the 6.5% expected. This means the RBA has more fire power to keep rising rates, despite the services sector remaining in a contraction (with a reading of under 50). If the AUDUSD's 50 day simple moving average crosses above the 200 day, marking a ‘golden cross’, we could see a quick run up to 0.7137, the August peak. It’s also worth watching the AUDEUR as bullish momentum could see the pair on the weekly chart cross over its 100-day moving average. - Stay tuned to Saxo's inspiration page for trading and investing ideas, as news breaks.  For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Video: Oil prices drop, some investors buy the oil dip. AU & NZ CPI hotter than expected | Saxo Group (home.saxo)  
Earnings, Soft PMIs, and Market Dynamics: Impact on Yields, Dollar, and Key Developments

Microsoft Forecasts A Continuous Slowdown, Eurozone PMI Rose

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.01.2023 10:13
Summary:  US equities posted an uninspiring session yesterday and the mood soured slightly after the close on Microsoft reporting earnings and issuing weak guidance for its cloud business. Today, the hotly anticipated Tesla earnings report is up after hours. Elsewhere, US Treasury yields dipped and the Australian dollar jumped to new cycle highs in many AUD pairs, including versus the US dollar, on hotter than expected Australian Q4 CPI data.   What is our trading focus? Equities: Momentum faded in US equities mixed earnings The Q4 earnings releases yesterday weighed on sentiment yesterday with the biggest negative surprise coming from 3M expecting -3% to 0% organic revenue growth in 2023 which indicates a sharp decline in volume which 3M confirmed is taking place in consumer electronics and retail related businesses. After the cash close Microsoft reported a worse than expected outlook sending S&P 500 futures lower trading around the 4,020 level early European trading hours. We expect sentiment to remain in a negative mood as the market awaits Tesla’s Q4 result after the market close. FX: USD generally weaker together with sterling, AUD surges The USD was sold again yesterday after a minor rebound, with EURUSD trading back above 1.0900 by this morning and near the cycle highs, while the weaker USD signal was not particularly pure or broad. USDJPY remains above 130.00 as the price action there has lost energy, for example. Some of the euro strength may be on EURJPY flows as the ECB jawboning remains on the hawkish side of late, and on EURGBP flows as sterling stumbled badly yesterday on a very weak preliminary January UK Services PMI yesterday, with EURGBP well back up into the range above 0.8800. The recent cycle top there was just south of 0.8900. Overnight, AUD jumped broadly to the strong side overnight on hot CPI data (more below). Crude oil (CLH3 & LCOH3) sits between two chairs Following Tuesday’s sharp fall, as investors turned more risk adverse following disappointing earnings, crude oil prices are slightly higher into today’s session with recession fears continuing to be offset by an expected increase in Chinese demand and supply concerns related to next month's EU embargo on Russian seaborne sales of fuel products. In Brent the approach to $90 and the December high at $89.40 is likely to prove a tough nut to crack until more supporting news reaches the market. API data showed another build in US crude stocks, but at 3.4mn barrels if was less than the huge builds seen recently. The EIA data is out later today. Gold at new cycle high Gold reached a new cycle high on Tuesday of $1942.5 before profit taking emerged following the better-than-expected PMIs before bouncing back after the weak Richmond Fed index. Bullion trades up close to 6% this month and more than 300 dollars above the early November low on growing recession fears and expected slowing of Fed tightening. The remainder of the week is littered with US economic data, including US Q4 GDP and PCE, the Fed’s favoured inflation metric. Gold remains in a steep uptrend with support at $1900 followed by $1880 where the 21-day moving average and trendline from the November low meet. Silver has stabilised following Monday’s short-lived sell off below $23.15 but a couple of closes above the 21-day moving average, last at $23.76 will be needed to turn the sentiment more supportive. Chicago wheat futures advance Chicago wheat, one of the three most shorted commodities by the hedge fund industry trades near a one-week high after crop conditions worsened in Texas, the second biggest US producing state of winter wheat, a reminder that dry soil conditions remain following last year's massive drought. In the week to January 17, data from the CFTC showed hedge funds held the biggest short position in Chicago wheat since May 2019. Together with Arabica coffee, another heavily shorted contract, these contracts remain exposed to short covering should the technical and/or fundamental outlook turn more favourably. US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields fall. Very strong 2-year Treasury auction US treasuries found support and rallied yesterday, taking the 10-year treasury yield benchmark back below 3.50% and the 2-year was back below 4.20% this morning, in part after a very strong 2-year auction that saw the strongest bidding metrics since the early 2020 pandemic outbreak timeframe. The US treasury will auction 5-year T-notes today. Grumbles around a protracted US debt ceiling showdown in Congress and the risk of default by the US government not wearing on trust in US sovereign paper yet, with “crunch time” for the issue seen as early as early summer if the situation not resolved before then. What is going on? Microsoft’s outlook sent shares lower The world’s largest software company missed revenue estimates in Q2 (ending 31 December) by a small margin but hit the EPS consensus estimate with EPS at $2.32 for the quarter. The initial reaction was positive in the extended trading session but as the outlook became clearer to investors shares sold off. Microsoft forecasts a continuous slowdown in the commercial business in the next two quarters leaving room for a growth acceleration later in 2023. ASML confirms strong demand for chips Europe’s largest technology company reports Q4 sales of €6.4bn in line with estimates and a gross margin of 51.5% vs est. 49.3%. Investors will be pleased to see the confidence in the outlook with Q1 sales guidance at €6.1-6.5bn vs est. €6.1bn and FY23 revenue growth of 25% compared to consensus at 20% y/y. The company also sees a slight improvement in the gross margin. The Aussie dollar rallied up to 0.8% to 0.7100+, a new 5-month high on hot Q4 CPI print The Australian dollar popped to 0.7108 US, its highest level since early August after another Australian inflation print came out hotter than expected after electricity prices surged, rents also remained stubbornly high, along with furnishings, and household equipment price. Core Trimmed Mean CPI rose 6.9% YoY, above the 6.5% consensus expected. Headline inflation came in at 7.8%, slightly below consensus expectations. Recall the RBA expects inflation to remain high in early in 2023, particularly amid higher energy costs. This is also in line with several other government bodies’ thinking. The stronger inflation data saw odds of an RBA hiking pause for February falling, with a majority now looking for a hike at the Feb. 8 RBA meeting, with about 65 basis points of total additional tightening priced for the RBA, with a peak policy rate priced near 3.75%. Eurozone Flash Jan. Composite PMI edges into expansion Eurozone PMI rose to 50.2 in January from 49.3 in December and 49.8 expected, suggesting that the region may be able to skirt a recession due to a less harsh winter this season which has given room to the ECB to continue to focus on fighting underlying inflationary pressures. Manufacturing PMI was just below the key 50-mark at 48.8 but better than last month’s 47.8, while the rise of services PMI to 50.7 drove most of the gains. UK services PMI, on the other hand, fell to 48 from 49.9 in December, while manufacturing gained slightly to 46.7 in January from 45.3 previously but still remained in contraction. This suggests further signs of UK being in a recession in early 2023 and possibly a sooner pause for the BOE than the ECB. US Flash Jan. PMIs hold up better than expected US flash PMIs for January surpassed expectations, as services rose to 46.6, above the expected 45.0 and the prior 44.7, while manufacturing lifted to 46.8 from 46.2 (exp. 46.0), which comes ahead of ISM on February 1st. The composite rose to 46.6 from 45.0, and this will probably further boost the calls in favour of a soft landing rather than a deep recession as has been the case since the start of the year due to faster-than-expected China reopening and stronger Eurozone outlook. Still, activity is in contraction and job growth is cooling, but the January print also pointed to a re-acceleration in the input cost inflation. US and Germany to send tanks to Ukraine The Biden administration is reportedly expected to announce the intent to send 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, with Germany’s Chancellor Scholz also reportedly deciding to send at least 14 of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine after a long hesitation. Reports suggest Germany would only agree to send its best tanks if the US did likewise. It is unknown how rapidly the tanks could be deployed at the front. The US Justice Department and eight US states sue Alphabet Inc.’s Google (GOOGL:xnas) ... charging the company with a monopoly in its digital advertising market place and calling for a break-up of the company’s business in this area. Google retorted that the case “largely duplicates an unfounded lawsuit by the Texas Attorney General, much of which was recently dismissed by a federal court. DoJ is doubling down on a flawed argument....” Alphabet, Inc.’s share price fell 2% yesterday. Codelco produced 10% less copper than planned last year Production at Codelco, the Chilean state-owned miner said on Tuesday it produced 10% less copper than planned last year. Driven by mishaps at existing operations, such as rockfall, equipment malfunctions and dam freeze. In addition, some projects were delayed as the industry is seeing cost blowouts. Chile, the world's biggest supplier has increasingly been challenged by steadily falling ore quality, water shortages and projects becoming pricier. Developments that together with social unrest in Peru and the expected pickup in demand from China and the green transformation point to underlying support for copper. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) report production and earnings later today and it may overtake Codelco as the world’s top producer. What are we watching next?  Bank of Canada meets today – most see a 25-basis point hike tomorrow followed by a pause Most observers are looking for the Bank of Canada to hike one last time for this cycle today to take the policy rate to 4.50% and to indicate a pause to assess inflation- and labour market conditions before deciding on next steps. The Bank of Canada hiked rapidly in 2022 in an attempt to catch up with galloping inflation but has contrasted with the Fed in signalling a pause in the hike cycle well before the Fed, which has been slower to signal that peak rates may be nearing. USDCAD trades near the lows since last November at 1.3350 this morning (2023 low is 1.3322), with the 200-day moving average creeping higher and near 1.3200. Tesla earnings on watch for margin pressure from price cuts Analysts expect revenue growth of 36% y/y and EPS of $1.12 up 64% y/y. Analysts are still very bullish on revenue growth for 2023 with expectations at 30% growth despite the recent slip in deliveries and three quarters of growing difference between production and deliveries. This is also reflected in the consensus price target at $190 vs the current price of $144. Traders and investors are also expressing a bullish take on Tesla with the put-call ratio on volume being 0.79 and the put-call open interest ratio at 0.65. The key thing to watch will be the comments on recent price cuts for several models, and how that impacts the bottom line, and whether the demand response is big enough to offset the price reduction to see the bottom line grow this year. Earnings to watch Today’s key earnings focus is ASML and Tesla as both earnings will set the direction for sentiment in the market. Read our earnings preview from yesterday here.  Today: ASML, Lonza Group, Tesla, Abbott Laboratories, NextEra Energy, IBM, Boeing, ServiceNow, CSX, Freeport-McMoRan, Lam Research, Norfolk Southern  Thursday: Tryg, Novozymes, Kone, Nokia, LVMH, Christian Dior, STMicroelectronics, SAP, Diageo, Atlas Copco, Volvo, SEB, Visa, Mastercard, Comcast, Intel, Blackstone, Valero Energy, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Dow, Nucor, L3Harris Technologies, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines  Friday: Fanuc, Chevron, American Express, Colgate-Palmolive  Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Germany Jan. IFO Business Climate survey  1500 – Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision  1530 – US Weekly DoE Oil and Product Inventories  1600 – Canada Bank of Canada Statement and Press Conference  1800 – US 5-year Treasury Auction  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 25, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The Bank Of Canada Paused Rates Hiking, The ADP Employment Report Had A 242K Increase In Jobs

The Bank Of Canada Raised Interest Rates By 25bps, The EIA Data Showed An Unexpected Rise In US Crude Inventories

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 26.01.2023 09:11
Summary:  Risk sentiment was boosted in the US afternoon session after Bank of Canada’s pause signal sparked hopes of the Fed taking a similar turn next week. This saw dollar dipping and Gold surging to fresh cycle highs. Earnings results continue to be mixed with cost cutting efforts in the limelight, but some optimism came from buyback announcements from companies like Chevron and Blackrock. Meanwhile, Tesla beat on the EPS but missed on margin and free cash flow. HK stocks return today after Lunar New Year holiday while China markets are still closed.   What’s happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) pared early losses to finish little changed On the back of the weakness in the outlook, especially a 7%-8% sequential decline in its Azure cloud computing in the current quarter, from Microsoft (MSFT:xnas), at one point in the New York morning Nasdaq 100 fell as much as 2.5% and S&P 500 slide nearly 1.7%. Stocks then spent the rest of the day climbing to recover from the morning losses. Nasdaq 100 finished the Wednesday session down only 0.3% and S&P 500 nearly unchanged. Microsoft pared early loss to close 0.6% lower. AT&T (T:xnys) jumped 6.6% on solid wireless subscription growth. Boeing (BA:xnys) plunged as much as 4.2%, following reporting a Q4 loss due to margin weakness, but pared all the loss and more, closing 0.3% higher. After the close, Tesla (TSLA:xnas) reported EPS of USD1.19, beating expectations slightly but EBITDA margin of 22.2% missing expectations. The EV giant expects to deliver about 1.8 million vehicles in 2023, in line with expectations. Tesla shares surged over 5% in extended hour trading. US Treasuries (TLT:Xmas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) richer by 1-3bps on lower UK & European yields Treasuries got a bid across the pond from stronger U.K. gilts and European government bonds which were helped by safe-haven buying on concerns of a potential escalation of the war in Ukraine as Germany and the U.S. are supplying tanks to Ukraine. Traders also took note of the Bank of Canada’s indication of a plan to pause rate hikes to assess the impact on the economy after raising its policy rate by 25bps to 4.5% on Wednesday. The 5-year auction went well with strong demand. Treasury yields fell 1 to 3 bps across the curve, with the 2-year finishing the session at 4.13% and the 10-year at 3.44% Hong Kong’s stock market back from the Lunar New Year holiday; Shanghai and Shenzhen closed Hong Kong’s stock market is resuming trading today after a 3-day long Lunar New Year Holiday while the mainland bourses remain closed for the holiday. During the first four days of the Lunar New Year holiday from Saturday to Tuesday, China’s passenger trips by road, rail, air, and water waterways reached nearly 96 million in China, about 29% higher from the same period last year. Chinese ADRs were in general firmer from their pre-holdiday closes in Hong Kong, with Alibaba (BABA:xnys; 09988:xhkg) up 1.2%, Tencent (TCEHY:xnas; 00700:xhkg) up 2.1%). JD.COM (JD:xnas; 09618:xhkg) up 0.6%, Li Auto (LI:xnas; 02015:xhkg) +6.5%, and NIO (NIO:xnys; 09866:xhkg) +7.1%. FX: Dollar downturn resumes amid expectations of a dovish Fed While a downshift in the Fed rate hike trajectory has been broadly signalled by the members of the board before the quiet period kicked off, the Bank of Canada’s pause signal has left the markets hoping for a similar turn from the Fed next week. This brought a fresh weakness in the US dollar overnight, with G10 gains led by AUD after a firmer-than-expected Q4 CPI print yesterday which would likely drive the RBA to continue to hike for now. AUDUSD hold above 0.71 with AUDNZD marching above 1.0950. GBPUSD returned back above 1.2400 as well while EURUSD is hovering near the YTD high of 1.0927 with a strong German Ifo report (read below) and hawkish rhetoric from the ECB continuing. USDJPY also back below 129.50 in the Asian morning. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) prices range-bound Crude oil prices remained firm on Wednesday after the EIA data showed an unexpected rise in US crude inventories. EIA reported a 0.5mln bbl build for US crude stocks in the latest week, marking the fifth straight build, albeit considerably less after the 8.4mln bbl build for the prior week, and on the lighter side of analyst expectations for a 1mln bbl build. Meanwhile, a weaker dollar and sustained positive signals from China reopening underpinned as well. WTI continued to find bids at $79.50 while Brent was supported around $85.50 with eyes on the December high of $89.40. Gold (XAUUSD) pushes to fresh 9-month highs; eyes on 1950 The weakness in the dollar amid expectations of a Fed downshift to a smaller rate hike next week continues to push Gold prices higher. The yellow metal surged to 1949.20 overnight, the highest levels since April 2022. A dovish hike by the Bank of Canada last night has set up the markets for a similar shift from the Fed next week. The US GDP release today will be of key interest to gauge whether the market expectations shifting in favor of a soft landing rather than a recession can continue to hold. The focus will then turn to the PCE data on Friday before we head into the Fed meeting week. Support at $1900.  Read next:Despite The Challenges Starbucks Is Developing In Italy, Bank BNP Paribas In Frankfurt Have Been Raided| FXMAG.COM What to consider? Bank of Canada’s dovish hike The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 25bps to 4.50%, the highest level in 15 years. It plans to hold going forward, but Governor Tiff Macklem said he's "prepared" to hike again if needed. The decision was slightly dovish with a clear pause being signalled, despite the caveat to hike again. The MPR saw the bank lower its 2022 and 2023 inflation forecast but sees 2024 inflation at 2.3% (prev. 2.2%), the same year it expects it to reach its target. Growth forecasts were raised in 2022 and 2023, but lowered in 2024. Markets are taking this as a positive signal in the hope that the Fed could take a similar turn next week. Improving German business outlook further lowers recession risk Germany business confidence survey signalled that the worst may be over for the economy and a slowdown may be ahead, but a deep recession appears to be unlikely at this point. The threat of an immediate energy crunch has receded due to the less harsh winter, and supply-chain constraints are also easing with China’s reopening. The expectation index of the Ifo survey rose for the fourth successive month to 86.4 in January from 83.2 previously, but remained historically subdued amid elevated inflation curbing purchasing power. The current assessment slightly deteriorated. US GDP on the radar today, along with jobless claims An advance print of the Q4 GDP will be released in the US today, and some deceleration is expected from last quarter’s 3.2% YoY. But consensus still expects a strong growth of 2.7% YoY as spending on services sustained. The big concern will be if we see consumers pulling back, as was signalled by a slump in retail sales this month. That could raise concerns on whether a soft landing is really possible. However, judging from the recent labor market strength, it may be too soon to count the consumer out. Initial jobless claims for last week will also be on watch after the previous figure dipped to sub-200k levels signalling a still-tight labor market. Tesla earnings beat Tesla reported Q4 revenue of USD24.32 billion, 1% above the consensus estimate of USD24.07 billion as per Bloomberg’s survey, and a growth of 13% Q/Q and 37% Y/Y. Adjusted net income grew nearly 60% to USD 3.69 billion from a year ago. Adjusted earnings per share came in at USD1.19, beating the consensus estimate of USD1.12 by 6%. The gross margin of 25.1% was below the 26.6% expected by the street and the EBITDA margin of 22.2% was lower than the 22.6% forecasted by analysts. The EV giant said it is accelerating cost-cutting actions. Tesla commented that its factory in China has been running near full capacity and it is not expecting meaningful volume increases in the near term. Chevron boosts buyback on record profits Chevron (CVX) announced $75 billion buyback (22% of marketcap and tripling the current program) that will start in Apr 1 and raised dividend by 6.3% to $1.51/share a quarter implying yield of 3.4%. 4Q earnings are due tomorrow. Other companies like Blackrock and Netflix have also announced buybacks for 2023, sending some optimism on a soft landing scenario as companies are not hoarding cash with fears of an incoming recession.   Source: Market Insights Today: Bank of Canada’s dovish hike; Step up in share buybacks – 26 January 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The German Purchasing Managers' Index, ZEW Economic Sentiment  And More Ahead

Two Small Caps Listed On Euronext Paris Have Faced Severe Financial Difficulties, The Q4 GDP Will Be Released In The US Today

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 26.01.2023 09:16
Summary:  A whipsaw session in the US for equity traders, as a steep sell-off intraday, in part on Microsoft shares gapping lower at the open on its after-hours earnings report of the prior day was fully reversed by the close. Tesla’s strong guidance after hours kept the mood elevated, as did sideways to lower US treasury yields and a weak US dollar. Another long list of US and European companies are set to report earnings today, including Europe’s largest company by market cap, luxury goods maker LVMH.   What is our trading focus? Equities: US equity market holds up after a stumble The market suffered a significant intraday drawdown yesterday, in part on mega-cap Microsoft gapping lower on the open after its earnings report after the close on Tuesday. But that stock and the broader market recovered to approximately unchanged by the close of the session, keeping the sense of suspense alive around the direction of this market, with a long-standing descending trend-line from the all-time top in play for the S&P 500 near recent highs above 4,000 and the price action criss-crossing the 200-day moving average. Today sees a further flurry of earnings reports, including from the two credit card giants Mastercard (to report before market open) and Visa (after market close). Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) surged on return from the Lunar New Year holiday On the first trading day of returning from the Lunar New Year holiday while the mainland bourses remain closed, Hang Seng Index surged 2% and Hang Seng TECH Index jumped 3.6%. During the first four days of the Lunar New Year holiday from Saturday to Tuesday, China’s passenger trips by road, rail, air, and water waterways reached nearly 96 million in China, about 29% higher than in the same 4-day period in the Lunar New Year holiday last year. It added to the optimism that the initial Covid outbreak when pandemic containment measures were lifted has not stalled the rebound in mobility and economic activities. Xiaomi (01810:xhkg), surging 12%, was the best performer within the benchmark Hang Seng Index, following the leak of an EV blueprint design being considered as an indication of the mobile phone and electronic device maker is on track to launch its first EV in 2024. FX: USD drops with resilient risk sentiment and as yields ease lower, perhaps in part on dovish Bank of Canada The USD remains on the weak side, falling again after a brief rally yesterday as sentiment rebounded in equity markets. Another strong treasury auction (see more below) kept US yields under pressure, with the Bank of Canada’s signalling of a pause after yesterday’s hike reminding the market of the US Fed’s trajectory as it is seen pausing rate hikes soon. AUD was especially firm, rallying hard yesterday after a firmer-than-expected Q4 CPI print which is seen likely to drive the RBA to continue to hike for now. AUDUSD has held above 0.71, while AUDNZD rallied hard to 1.0950+, closing in on its 200-day moving average just above 1.1000. GBPUSD recoverd back toward 1.2400 as well while EURUSD is hovering near the YTD high of 1.0927 after a strong German Ifo report yesterday (read below) and hawkish rhetoric from the ECB continuing. USDJPY also back below 129.50 overnight in Asia. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) prices range-bound Crude oil trades near unchanged after holding tight ranges overnight the Asia session amid low liquidity as the Lunar New Year holiday continues.  EIA reported a 0.5mn barrel build in US crude stocks in the latest week, while Cushing inventories jumped by more than 4 mn barrels, the biggest since April 2020, to 35.6mn barrels, thereby supporting the current spread widening between WTI and Brent to near $6/bbl. Export was firm while total products demand to its lowest for this time of year since 2014. Meanwhile, a weaker dollar and sustained positive signals from China reopening underpinned prices. WTI continued to find bids at $79.50 while Brent was supported around $85.50 with eyes on the December high of $89.40. Gold (XAUUSD) pushes to fresh cycle high near $1950 The weakness in the dollar amid expectations of a Fed downshift to a smaller rate hike next week continues to push gold prices higher. The yellow metal reached 1949.20 overnight, the highest levels since April 2022. A dovish hike by the Bank of Canada last night has set up the markets for a similar shift from the Fed next week. The US GDP release today will be of key interest to gauge whether the market expectations shifting in favor of a soft landing rather than a recession can continue to hold. The focus will then turn to the PCE data on Friday before we head into the Fed meeting week. Additional price momentum being provided by ETF’s where total holdings this week has jumped by 13 tons. Support at $1900 with resistance at 1963$, a Fibonacci level. US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields fall, 5-year auction another strong one US treasuries continued to rally and yields edged lower, keeping the 10-year US treasury benchmark yield below 3.50%. A 5-year auction saw very strong bidding metrics, if not quite as dramatic as those of the 2-year auction of the prior day. More impactful US macro data is up today, including the first Q4 GDP estimate and weekly jobless claims number, with December PCE inflation data up tomorrow. What is going on? Tesla reports strong profits, forecasts 37% jump in sales this year The company beat consensus estimates in reporting $1.19 of earnings per share and said that it would increase its output “as quickly as possible” after having previously forecasted that it would average 50% annual growth in coming years. The coming year’s forecast production increase was for a rise of about 37%, and questions loom about the company’s margins after it cut prices sharply earlier this month. The company warned on economic uncertainty and claimed to be accelerating its “cost reduction roadmap.” Tesla stock has rallied over 40% from the cycle lows of a few weeks ago and was up marginally in late trading yesterday after the earnings release. Bank of Canada’s dovish hike The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 25bps to 4.50%, the highest level in 15 years. It plans to hold going forward, but Governor Tiff Macklem said he's "prepared" to hike again if needed. The decision was slightly dovish with a clear pause being signalled, despite the caveat to hike again. The MPR saw the bank lower its 2022 and 2023 inflation forecast but sees 2024 inflation at 2.3% (prev. 2.2%), the same year it expects it to reach its target. Growth forecasts were raised in 2022 and 2023, but lowered in 2024. Markets are taking this as a positive signal in the hope that the Fed could take a similar turn next week. Improving German business outlook further lowers recession risk Germany business confidence survey signalled that the worst may be over for the economy and a slowdown may be ahead, but a deep recession appears to be unlikely at this point. The threat of an immediate energy crunch has receded due to the less harsh winter, and supply-chain constraints are also easing with China’s reopening. The expectation index of the Ifo survey rose for the fourth successive month to 86.4 in January from 83.2 previously but remained historically subdued amid elevated inflation curbing purchasing power. The current assessment slightly deteriorated. Bad time for small caps on Euronext Paris With tightened financial conditions, it is getting increasingly complicated for several small companies to get access to affordable financing. In less than two days, two small caps listed on Euronext Paris have faced severe financial difficulties. A court ordered the liquidation of Deinove – a French biotechnology company pioneering the exploration of a new domain of life, unexplored at 99.9 %: the microbial dark matter. The company, based in the South of France, failed to secure a new round of financing. Yesterday, Lysogène went into receivership. This is another French biotechnology company focusing on lead programs in neurodegenerative lysosomal. The stock is down 85 % on a yearly basis. Expect other small listed companies to experience the same fate as access to financing is getting much more complicated in a high-interest environment. The biotechnological sector is certainly one of the most vulnerable, along with other high-tech segments (such as artificial intelligence). What are we watching next? US GDP on the radar today, along with jobless claims An advance print of the Q4 GDP will be released in the US today, and some deceleration is expected from last quarter’s 3.2% YoY. But consensus still expects a strong growth of 2.7% YoY as spending on services was sustained. The big concern will be if we see consumers pulling back, as was signalled by a slump in retail sales this month. That could raise concerns on whether a soft landing is possible. However, judging from the recent labour market strength, it may be too soon to count the consumer out. Initial jobless claims for last week will also be on watch after the previous figure dipped to sub-200k levels signalling a still-tight labour market. Earnings to watch Today’s key earnings focus in Europe is on the largest company on the continent by market value, LVMH, which continues to ride high on strong sales, and with special focus on how the company guides on the anticipation of a reopening China. It reports after the European market close today. A number of other prominent European names are reporting, including SAP (results already out this morning, with upbeat revenue guidance relative to forecast). In the US, the focus is on the two credit card giants Mastercard, which will report before the open and Visa, which reports after the market close. US chip giant Intel will also report after the market close, as that beleaguered company continues to try righting the ship after touching eight-year lows last year, and with slumping PC demand a prominent concern. Today: Tryg, Novozymes, Kone, Nokia, LVMH, Christian Dior, STMicroelectronics, SAP, Diageo, Atlas Copco, Volvo, SEB, Visa, Mastercard, Comcast, Intel, Blackstone, Valero Energy, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Dow, Nucor, L3Harris Technologies, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines Friday: Fanuc, Chevron, American Express, Colgate-Palmolive Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1330 – US Dec. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 1330 – US Q4 GDP Estimate 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1500 – US Dec. New Home Sales 1530 – US Weekly Natural Gas Inventory report 1600 – US Jan. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity 2330 – Japan Jan. Tokyo CPI 0000 – New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence/Activity Outlook 0030 – Australia Q4 PPI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 26, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
FX Daily: Upbeat China PMIs lift the mood

Chinese Have Enough Money To Temper Recession, Tesla’s Record Profit

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 26.01.2023 10:56
The S&P500 was flat yesterday, as investors tried to make sense of the deluge of company earnings that hit the fan before, during and after the session. Microsoft didn’t gain on better-than-expected earnings, and Tesla announced record profits, but the share price jumped only 5% in the afterhours. Stocks Latest positive price action in stocks – which is now fading, and the positive price action in bonds suggest that the recession odds became less for stock traders, and more for bond traders since the start of this year. And that’s a risk for stock gains, besides earnings. Bank of Canada In central banks, Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked its bank rate by 25bp yesterday and announced to pause. The BoC decision spurred the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could do the same: hike by 25bp next week then pause. Bank of England For the Bank of England (BoE), investors are almost sure that the year will end with a 25bp hike due to the slowing economy. Australia But in Australia, the surprise rebound in Australian inflation, spurred the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hawks yesterday. Summary In summary, investors’ hearts will continue to swing between slowing economy and easing inflation, and the bumps in inflation along the way.But the data will tell who is right and who is wrong. All eyes are on US GDP today! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:47 Microsoft sold on slowing revenue warning 1:51 Tesla’s record profit sees limited reaction 3:34 Stock and bonds don’t price the same recession odds 5:11 FX update: USD down, euro, sterling, Aussie up 7:51 Chevron to buy back $75bn stocks! 9:01 Chinese have enough money to temper recession. They just need to spend it! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Tesla #Microsoft #earnings #Chevron #stock #buyback #US #GDP #data #Fed #ECB #BoE #RBA #BoC #expectations #recession #odds #USD #EUR #GBP #AUD #crude #oil #China #New #Year #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      
Tesla Is Expected A Temporary Rally

Musk Intends To Cut Costs In Tesla On Everything

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 26.01.2023 11:34
After Elon Musk acquired Twitter, many investors are wondering what's next for Tesla. Recently, after publishing the results, Elon Musk shared plans for Tesla. In this article: Cuts Apple has maintained its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer Asia will be the leader in the future The future of Big Tech in 2023 Cuts Elon Musk's attention has recently been largely focused on Twitter's activities, but he does not forget about Tesla. Musk intends to cut costs on everything from parts to logistics, while keeping the pressure on competitors with discounted sticker prices. Tesla is also cutting costs by redesigning battery and electric motor system components, removing features owners don't use, based on data collected from Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs on the road Elon Musk has a playbook for Tesla headed into what he believes will be a 'serious' recession: cut costs on everything from parts to logistics, while keeping the pressure on competitors with discounted sticker prices https://t.co/tyYV26iN6v pic.twitter.com/G1KyALvLjY — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) January 26, 2023 Apple has maintained its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer The difficult economic situation also affected the sales of smartphones. Global smartphone shipments declined in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to research firm IDC. A total of 1.21 billion smartphones were shipped in 2022, the lowest annual shipment volume since 2013 due to significantly weakened consumer demand, inflation and economic uncertainty. Apple has maintained its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer in the world. The US tech giant shipped 72.3 million iPhones in the fourth quarter, down 14.9% year-on-year. Samsung, the second largest player in the smartphone market, saw sales fall 15.6% year-on-year to 58.2 million units. Samsung did not release an all-new flagship smartphone for the fourth quarter. Smartphone shipments plunge to a low not seen since 2013 — their largest ever decline https://t.co/KHk5fHELJr — CNBC (@CNBC) January 26, 2023 Read next: Trump Returns To Social Media, Meta Will Restore The Former President's Account| FXMAG.COM Asia will be the leader in the future Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, global growth has been put to a significant test. This was especially shown in 2022, where the growing inflation and interest rates affected the condition of the economies. Investors and economists are wondering whether global economic leaders will maintain their positions or will this change over the years as a result of events. The United States is the economic leader followed by China. According to economists, this may change and the main driving force of global growth will not be Western countries, but countries from Asia. This is very likely because most of the population is in this region, and this region is developing dynamically and thus offers jobs and attracts new residents. What countries are likely to power global growth in the decades to come? We cover the answer in our #ExchangesGS podcast here: https://t.co/G60vRNYV1u pic.twitter.com/w61esY8sv2 — Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) January 25, 2023 The future of Big Tech in 2023 2022 was a difficult year for Silicon Valley. After solid growth lasting more than a decade and a pandemic-induced boom, Big Tech giants like Meta, Alphabet and Apple have lost market value. Overall, Big Tech faces countless challenges in 2023, including macroeconomic pressures, increased competition, supply chain issues, and bloated cost structures. However, there are positive sides to every cloud: companies are now rethinking their business strategies, which could pave the way for a more sustainable era for Big Tech. For example, when it comes to Meta, the company is expected to continue to focus on its new AI Discovery engine, ads, and business platforms. Big Tech firms endured a tough year due to macro headwinds, supply chain issues, and plummeting revenues. J.P. Morgan Research explores the opportunities that lie ahead. — J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan) January 25, 2023
Pound Slides as Market Reacts Dovishly to Wage Developments

In Europe Investors Reacted Positively To Reports

Jakub Novak Jakub Novak 26.01.2023 14:10
The sharp growth of US tech stocks boosted market sentiment amid optimistic earnings forecasts from electric car maker Tesla Inc. Futures contracts on the Nasdaq 100 index rose by about 0.5%. Tesla jumped more than 8% during premarket trading in New York after beating earnings and sales estimates. Futures on the S&P 500 index added 0.3%, and the industrial Dow Jones gained 0.2%. Europe stocks In Europe, investors reacted positively to reports from Nokia Oyj Telecommunications Group and chipmaker STMicroelectronics NV, which helped the Stoxx 600 index gain more than 0.5%. Although companies are not boasting of high figures they are not disastrous either, which keeps the demand for risky assets, including stocks. The January growth is exaggerated given the recession risks. However, next week's Federal Reserve meeting may confirm that the market and investors were right. China The buoyant market sentiment was also linked to China, where data on holiday and tourism spending showed that the country's recovery is gaining momentum. On the first trading day after the Lunar New Year, the Hang Seng Index jumped by 2.4% and closed at its highest level since March 1, 2022. US GBP Expectations of a soft landing of the US economy and that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle are also pushing investors to buy cheaper assets. US GDP reports for Q4 this year are expected today, as well as employment data, which will help determine the Fed's future policy course. Euro The euro is down slightly, but it is getting continued support from statements by European Central Bank officials, who continue to argue in favor of further significant policy tightening in the coming months. Bond yields in the Eurozone rose by several points. Oil and Bitcoin Oil prices continued to rise amid expectations of a rebound in demand in China. Bitcoin fell by more than 2%, wiping out much of Wednesday's gains. S&P 500 index As for the S&P 500 index, the situation remains on the side of bulls. The index may continue to grow but bulls need to protect the support level of $4,010 as well as take control over $4,038. After that, we may expect a more confident spurt to $4,064. At the same time, it would be difficult to reach above $4,091. If the pair declines and we see weak activity from bulls at $4,010, they will have to protect $3,980 and $3,960. Breaking through this level, the index may be pushed to $3,923.   Relevance up to 12:00 2023-01-27 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333364
Bank of Canada keeps the rates unchanged. After the release of the US inflation, Fed's Barkin drew attention to cooling demand, but still strong labour market and inflation

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) Was The Clear Outperformer Across The G10 Board

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 27.01.2023 10:16
Summary:  U.S. equities gained and Treasuries sold off on stronger-than-expected U.S. data headlines, including a 2.9% growth in Q4 GDP, a decline in the initial claims to 186K, a 5.6% increase in durable goods orders, and a rise in new home sales. The Nasdaq 100 closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since March last year. Hong Kong came back from the Lunar New Year holiday rising 2.4% on high-frequency data that pointed to a strong recovery in traffic and consumption during the Lunar New Year holiday in mainland China. Today all eyes are on the PCE data as it may set the direction of the next move of equities and bonds.   What’s happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) rallied on slower but better-than-expected economic growth The major US indices had a choppy day of trade, with the S&P 500 rebounding and ending up 1.1%, and the Nasdaq 100 finishing the session 2% higher. Investors digested slower US economic GDP growth data but better-than-expected from the fourth quarter, as it tends to suggest that the US economy could make a soft landing. Nasdaq 100 closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since March last year. 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors gained with energy, up 3.3%, and consumer discretionary, up 2%, leading the charge higher. Tesla shares charge, investors look past falling auto margins Tesla’s shares jumped 11% on Thursday, extending its rally from its January 6 intra-day low to over 57%, with earnings and revenue beat expectations, while investors looked past automotive gross margins grinding to its lowest figure in five quarters, 25.1%. Also, despite a streak of quarterly sales (deliveries) coming up short of expectations, Musk teased the potential to produce 2 million vehicles this year, and minimise the effects of drastic price cuts to its EVs. Other company news American Airlines Group expects profit this year to exceed estimates following a slow start, as steady demand for air travel keeps an industry recovery going into 2023. Mastercard warned revenue growth would slow even faster than expected this quarter, stoking fears that inflation has put a damper on consumer spending. Yields on US Treasuries (TLT:Xmas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) rose on stronger-than-expected economic data U.S. Treasures sold off after the stronger-than-expected economic headlines. Real GDP grew at 2.9% annualized in Q4, faster than the 2.6% median forecast, though more than half of the increase came from a rise in inventories. Initial jobless claims fell to 186K instead of rising as in the consensus forecasts. New home sales rose 2.3% sequentially against expectations for a decline. Durable goods orders grew 5.6% M/M while the median forecast expecting for a decline. The 7-year auction had strong demand with a strong bid-to-cover ratio of 2.69 times and was awarded 2bps richer than the market level at the time of the auction. Yields on the 2-year notes settled 6bps higher at 4.18% and the 10-year finished the session cheaper at 3.49%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 2.4% as mobility and consumption picked up in the mainland On the first trading day of returning from the Lunar New Year holiday while the mainland bourses remain closed, Hang Seng Index surged 2.4% and Hang Seng TECH Index jumped 4.3%. According to Xinhua News, the State Council estimates that passenger trips over the whole Lunar New Year peak transportation period are reaching 2.1 billion, almost doubled the number from last year. Separately, data from the Ministry of Transport showed that daily passenger trips between 7 and 25 January averaged nearly 37 million, a 50.8% growth from last year. Tourism consumption data from Ctrip and cinema box offices have also been encouraging. It added to the optimism that the initial Covid outbreak when pandemic containment measures were lifted has not stalled the rebound in mobility and economic activities. Xiaomi (01810:xhkg), surging 12.5%, was the best performer within the benchmark Hang Seng Index, following the leak of an EV blueprint design being considered as an indication of the mobile phone and electronic device maker is on track to launch its first EV in 2024. FX: CAD boosted by higher oil prices; JPY stronger on Tokyo CPI The US dollar was modestly higher on Thursday with upbeat US GDP and claims data supporting the case for a soft landing. Focus now turns to PCE and the earnings season ahead of the Fed meeting next week where the broad consensus is still for a step down to a 25bps rate hike. CAD was the clear outperformer across the G10 board, despite Bank of Canada’s dovish tilt this week as higher oil prices supported. USDCAD now testing a break below 1.33. EURUSD still getting rejected close to YTD highs of 1.0930, but JPY was one of the underperformers as USDJPY traded back above 130 amid somewhat higher US yields but a dip back below 129.70 was seen in early Asia as Tokyo CPI for January came in above expectations. AUDUSD holds higher despite Australian producer prices slowing. US PCE today & RBA decision Tuesday next test Australian producer inflation (as measured by the Producer Price Index), has been trending higher, however today’s data from Q4 suggests producer prices are easing. However we believe that this is not an accurate reflection of reality. Not only is the data quarterly, but raw material prices (oil, electricity, fuel, copper, rent) are trending higher. As such the Australian dollar holds at 0.7127, after rising up 0.2%. The next test for the Aussie dollar will be Friday’s PCE data from the US and Tuesday’s RBA commentary with an expected 0.25% (25bps) hike on the cards. All in all, we believe the AUD is supported higher over the medium term, following a series of hotter than expected CPI prints, while China’s reopening is supporting the AUD with commodity demand rising. Still we continue to watch if the 50 day simple moving average crosses above the 200 day, marking a ‘golden cross’, which could lead to another quick run up. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) prices jump higher The demand outlook for commodities got another boost on Thursday with upbeat US GDP report for Q4 and a still-low initial claims weekly print highlighting the tight jobs market. Th30e recovering demand outlook in the short run also saw Brent structure flipping to backwardation from contango. Brent futures were up 1.7% to $87.50 but our Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole Hansen, writes that Brent is likely to find resistance at $100 in the short-term, with recession risks offsetting an expected rebound in Chinese demand and supply concerns related to the February 5 introduction of an EU embargo on Russian seaborne sales of fuel products. WTI futures inched back above $81/barrel. Gold (XAUUSD) rejected at 1950 With the upbeat US economic data releases on Thursday, there was increasing conviction that the Fed could still deliver a soft landing vs. a deep recession that some had started to forecast at the end of 2022. This prompted some profit-taking in Gold which closed at a nine-month high and very close to the key resistance of $1950 a day before. Spot prices slumped close to 0.9% to close near $1930, with support seen at $1900 with resistance at $1963, a Fibonacci level. Copper shorter term correction risk Copper prices lift 0.5% to $4.27, and are now up 32% from their lows. The wiring and industry metal outlook remains bright amid the clean energy transition, while mines will need to produce more than needed over the next two years to meet demand. However there is a risk Latin America will ramp up output, which could see prices correct.  Read next: Trump Returns To Social Media, Meta Will Restore The Former President's Account| FXMAG.COM  What to consider? US economic data continues to point to soft landing, eyes on PCE The advance print of US GDP came in at a stronger-than-expected +2.9% YoY (vs. 2.6% YoY exp) for the fourth quarter from 3.2% YoY in Q3. While the strong headline, together with another sub-200k print for the weekly jobless claims, coming in at 186k vs. 205k expected, suggested that the US economy was holding up strongly in the wake of rapid Fed tightening, the details were still patchy. Importantly, personal consumption, key to gauge how the consumers are holding up, climbed at a weaker-than-expected pace of 2.1% YoY. Focus now turns to Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE data, due to be released today. The disinflation impulse is likely to stretch further, as has been evident from CPI releases lately, likely continuing to build a case for a 25bps rate hike by the Fed next week. IMF urges the Bank of Japan to consider policy flexibility The BOJ should consider increasing flexibility in long-term yields, the IMF said, highlighting that the risks to inflation are tilted to the upside with exceptionally high uncertainty. Options include raising its 10-year yield target, widening the trading band, switching back to a quantity goal for bond buying and aiming at a shorter-maturity yield. Japan needs to see a 3% across-the-board rise in nominal wages to anchor CPI above the BOJ's 2% target, fund Deputy MD Gita Gopinath said. EU considering $100 cap on Russian diesel The European Union is floating a plan to cap the price of Russian diesel at $100 a barrel from February 5 (the same date as the EU will ban almost all imports of refined Russian products). For reference, diesel futures are currently trading at $130/barrel, as they usually trade at a premium to crude. A lower $45 threshold would be set for discounted fuels like fuel oil, but member states will need to unanimously agree to the final figures. The objective remains to keep the Russian flows coming but cut Moscow’s revenues. Japan’s Tokyo CPI beats expectations Tokyo CPI for January came in above expectations, with the headline rising to 4.4% YoY from a revised 3.9% YoY previously and estimate of 4.0% YoY. The core measure rose to 4.3% YoY from 3.9% YoY while the core-core measure was also higher at 3.0% YoY from 2.7% YoY in December. This makes way from another beat in the overall CPI for January as well, and saw USDJPY down by about 50pips in response to 129.70 after a modest rise in the US session as US yields rose. Asia’s inflation surge from Australia to New Zealand to Japan is raising concerns on how China’s reopening could potentially fuel another leg of price pressures globally as commodity prices surge. In Australia, the ASX200(ASXSP200.I) seems supported by China reopening Consider Australia is often considered an investment proxy for China and Aussie exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could draw flows as China's economy reopens from Covid. The Australian equity market is frequently a dividend and commodity play, tilting heavily to financial and materials sectors. Mining company BHP Group expects dividend growth of 17% while the top iron ore miners are expected to ramp up shipments, underpinning higher earnings. Insurers, banks and financials could benefit most from RBA rate hikes with QBE and Westpac most sensitive to rising interest rates, with 60% and 40% profit boosts expected for them this year amid higher earnings on assets. The ASX200 is up 16% from its low and total aggregate earnings growth of over 30% is likely to unpin further growth for the market.   For a look ahead at markets this week – Read/listen to our Saxo Spotlight.   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Market Insights Today: Tesla leads; US GDP beats estimates – 27 January 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
US Inflation Slows as Spending Stalls: Glimmers of Hope for Economic Outlook

Toyota's Transition To Electric Will Come With A Change In CEO

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 30.01.2023 11:13
Electric vehicles are taking up a growing share of European and American markets, and a fifth of the world's largest car market, China, already consists of electric vehicles. Akio Toyoda Longtime CEO Akio Toyoda called himself the spokesperson for the "silent majority" of people in the auto industry who questioned the focus on electric vehicles. In the automotive world, Toyoda is one of those who advocate slower and more prudent movement. He argued that gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles like Toyota's Prius could be just as environmentally friendly, and said other companies were pushing consumers to switch to electric vehicles they might not be ready for without a full charging infrastructure. The CEO has always said that he is not a skeptic about electric vehicles - he is a realist. The desire to change for the better The transition is a watershed moment not only in the automotive industry, but also in the complicated green energy transition across the business world. Some companies, investors and governments are pushing for big leaps towards renewable energy and green technologies, arguing that consumers and infrastructure will keep up with the changes. Government agencies and investors are encouraging companies to switch to electric vehicles with subsidies and tax breaks. New tax credits for electric vehicles in US law, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act, do not apply to hybrids that are not pluggable. The European Union has mandated the sale of new zero-emission cars by 2035. The state of California will also only allow the sale of new electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and hydrogen cell vehicles starting in 2035. Read next: Inflation Is Falling, But Does It Mean That The Fed's February Decision Will Be Dovish?| FXMAG.COM New CEO CEO Motor Corp. Akio Toyoda, who has expressed skepticism about the future of all-electric vehicles, said he would hand over the keys to a junior director. The change in management comes as Toyota transitions to electric, autonomous and connected cars. Koji Sato, a 53-year-old engineer who will take over as Toyota's CEO in April, has provided some details on his plans for the world's best-selling automaker. However, his background in launching the first all-electric Lexus and working on hydrogen-powered cars allows him to face the upcoming car transformation. Sato said on Thursday, without giving details, that his plans for Toyota include accelerating the electrification of the automaker's lineup. Still, echoing Toyoda's position, he said that for the world to become carbon neutral by 2050, it would need more than just electric vehicles for transportation. Toyota will be EV? Last month, Toyoda wondered aloud how much longer he could argue for a more gradual and multifaceted approach. Two generations ago, Toyota was transforming the automotive industry with innovations such as just-in-time manufacturing and an obsession with continuous improvement. By the time Toyoda took the top job in 2009, there were signs the company was moving too fast. His quest for global dominance limited profit margins and caused some to wonder if quality was being sacrificed. But as Tesla overtook Toyota to become the world's most valuable automaker by market capitalization, competition intensified. Currently, Toyota has several electric vehicles in showrooms, and more will appear this year. Toyota's current EV platform - the basic architecture on which various car models can be built - has been partially changed from the existing platform for gasoline-powered vehicles. Even before Toyota's first change at the top in 13 years, some changes to its EV strategy were being considered behind the scenes. The company researched rivals. Meanwhile, Toyota remains the leader in sales of hybrids and plug-in hybrids, two model types that accounted for nearly 30% of its global shipments between 2022 and November. But sales of pure electric vehicles - models that run purely on electricity - are still low. The competitive EV business remains for Toyota as part of a larger strategy to promote and invest in a diversified offering that also includes hybrid and hydrogen vehicles. Toyota share price Toyota shares with the new year soared. They started the year at 138.28 and are now much higher at 147.16. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
EXMO.COM analyst: Currently, Tesla is still trying to conquer the market by prioritising revenue over profit

Tesla Triggers EV Price War, The IMF Raised Its Growth Forecast

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 31.01.2023 10:21
Stock investors kicked off the week on a cautious note, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to kill joy when it announced its latest decision tomorrow, and earnings announcements may not save the day. S&P500 The S&P500 gave back 1.30% on Monday. US crude fell 2% yesterday and slipped below the 50-DMA this morning. Interestingly, however, the latest news on the macro front is not bad. The Chinese reopening is now well reflected through the first set of economic data. Released today, both the manufacturing and services PMI jumped into the expansion zone. IMF And the cherry on top, the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.2% to 2.9% citing the resilience of US spending and the Chinese reopening. This is the kind of news that the energy markets normally cheer. But not this time, apparently. Forex In the FX, the US dollar is gaining some positive momentum into the Fed meeting, as investors know that the Fed won’t declare victory over inflation despite the falling inflation, and position accordingly. Fed The Fed will certainly hike by 25bp, but there is little chance it will announce the end of the tightening. But more importantly, Jerome Powell will likely reveal whether we have one more rate hike, or two more rate hikes to go before pause. And that simple ‘s’ could make all the difference. Read next: Glovo Is Planning To Layoff 250 Workers Worldwide, The Middle East Is Already Suffering From A Water Shortage| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:21 Market update 2:39 Apple did good in China in Q4 3:47 Tesla triggers EV price war 4:45 Good news from China and IMF (don’t bring oil bulls back…) 7:34 Why Powell will have to pluck some doves’ wings? Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #FOMC #meeting #Apple #Amazon #Google #Meta #Snap #Exxon #earnings #China #PMI #EUR #inflation #IMF #growth #GBP #crude #oil #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Earnings season: Tesla stock price slipped after yesterday's news. The best selling car in Q1 was Model Y

Elon Musk Was Found Not Guilty In The Tweets Case

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 05.02.2023 18:52
Elon Musk is popular not only because of Tesla or recently Twitter, but also because of the events that concern him. Musk, together with his company SpaceX, is trying to create a rocket for interplanetary travel, and in the meantime, another of his companies - Tesla - is found not guilty. In this article: Starship is a future Musk and tweets case Cryptocurrency regulation is coming Starship is a future Visions of the future of humanity beyond the Change appeared as early as the 1980s. With progress, it seems that humanity is on the verge of achieving this goal. That's why SpaceX created Starship. Elon Musk is known for such visions, and has opined that the "holy grail" in making human life multiplanet lies in our ability to create a completely reusable rocket. System that can carry vast amounts of equipment, supplies - and people - deep into space. The Starship project can be attractive to investors. Some experts have estimated that if SpaceX succeeds with Starship along with Starlink's global satellite internet venture, the company's valuation could soar into the trillions of dollars. In addition to a success for the company, it may also be a success for the future of space travel. Here's why Starship is indispensable for the future of SpaceX. Watch the video to learn more. https://t.co/VrgmwPexlI pic.twitter.com/FL53gNdJYQ — CNBC (@CNBC) February 5, 2023 Read next: Difficult Decision Ahead Of The RBA, The Market Expects A 25bp Rate Hike| FXMAG.COM Musk and tweets case The topic of Elon Musk does not go away. Musk's attention has been split between Tesla, his rocket company SpaceX and now Twitter in recent months. Tesla investors have expressed concerns that running the social media company has taken up too much of his attention. Beyond visions of the future at SpaceX, Musk has struggled with a lawsuit over his sometimes impulsive use of Twitter, the social media company he bought for $44 billion in October. Tesla shareholders said Musk misled them when he tweeted on August 7, 2018 that he was considering buying the company at $420 a share, which is a premium. A US jury on Friday found that Tesla CEO Elon Musk and his company were not responsible for misleading investors. Plaintiffs sought billions of dollars in damages, and the decision was also seen as important to Musk himself, who often expresses his views on Twitter. 'Thank goodness, the wisdom of the people has prevailed,' Elon Musk tweeted, adding that he was 'deeply appreciative' of a U.S. jury's decision that Musk and Tesla were not liable for his 'funding secured' tweets from 2018 https://t.co/owohhIOsEy pic.twitter.com/3XoA84jcps — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 5, 2023 Cryptocurrency regulation is coming After countless outbursts, scams, and manipulations throughout 2022, 2023 will be the year of cryptocurrency regulation in the US. It meant it was time to hold the American public accountable and push for sensible regulation. What's more, there is a lot of interest and demand for it, but will the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the US be reasonable? What can you confess? How will the market and other countries react? #Crypto regulation in the U.S. is like having spicy Mexican food: you know something bad's coming soon, but you don't want to think about it now. 😉https://t.co/AuolMd6Yt4 — CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) February 5, 2023
Musk Said Tesla’s Next Phase Of Growth Will Be Built Around Building Clean Energy Sources

Tesla Will Increase Output For 2023, Deliveroo Are Planning To Cut Jobs

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 10.02.2023 11:38
Tesla raises investors' optimism about the current year. On the other hand, another food supplier, Deliveroo, decides to reduce employment by 9%. In this article: Record revenues, but the worst is yet to come Cut workforce Tesla news What does the current economic situation mean for investors? Record revenues, but the worst is yet to come SMIC is one of the most important Chinese chip companies. It is the largest foundry in the country, which is a company that produces chips that other companies design. SMIC said Thursday that revenue in 2022 was $7.2 billion despite ongoing U.S. sanctions, but warned of a tougher year given the slump in the semiconductor industry. SMIC said first-quarter revenue is projected to fall 10% to 12% from the December quarter. China's biggest chipmaker SMIC posts record 2022 revenue but warns of a tough year ahead https://t.co/he2bcPOFzf — CNBC (@CNBC) February 10, 2023 Cut workforce Delivery companies have hired more people during the lockdown. In the current situation, they are struggling with the problems of rising costs and reduced demand. Many companies decide to reduce employment, Glovo is one of such companies. Now the British meal delivery company Deliveroo will be joined to cut jobs. Deliveroo has grown rapidly since it was founded in London a decade ago, but recently said it would cut jobs by around 9%, or 350 positions, as it struggles to break even in a tougher consumer environment that has resulted in a slowdown in orders. WATCH: London-based meal delivery company Deliveroo to cut 9% of its workforce, or 350 roles, as it struggles to become profitable in a tougher consumer environment that has caused orders to slow https://t.co/m92D9l1WCk pic.twitter.com/Nj7ThoKTWO — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 10, 2023 Read next: Twitter Co-Founder Jack Dorsey Comments New Twitter's Owner| FXMAG.COM Tesla Tesla Inc. started 2022 as the leader of the global electric vehicle market, but faced increasing competition and supply chain challenges as the year progressed. Tesla is taking steps to improve performance and investor sentiment in 2023. CEO Elon Musk said the company will increase production for 2023. Recently, Tesla has lowered the prices of vehicles. Tesla has slashed prices in the US, Europe, the Middle East and Africa after a series of cuts in Asia last week, in what analysts saw as a clear shot at both smaller rivals bleeding out of cash and older automakers aggressively ramping up electric power vehicle production. Therefore, many analysts expect a price war. Tesla is taking steps to improve results and investor sentiment in 2023. CEO Elon Musk said the company will increase output for 2023, potentially to more than 2 million vehicles.https://t.co/Y0UayH2xh9 — Bloomberg Terminal (@TheTerminal) February 9, 2023 What does the current economic situation mean for investors? The economic situation remains tense for another year. Interest rates are still rising, inflation remains high, but there are also optimistic signals, e.g. from the labor market. All this has a significant impact on the bond market. Investors have mixed feelings and do not know how to react to the current situation. Experts are looking at the situation and what it means for investors and markets. The economy is growing... but the Fed continues the fight against inflation. Join Mike Townsend and Kathy Jones, Schwab's chief fixed income strategist, as they discuss what all this mean for the bond markets and investors. https://t.co/GzVcbku0aL #Podcast pic.twitter.com/l7D0EYKGl9 — Charles Schwab Corp (@CharlesSchwab) February 9, 2023
Albemarle Will Be A Proxy For What We Can Expect From Lithium Companies' Earnings, Tesla Maintains Its Lofty Production Targets

Albemarle Will Be A Proxy For What We Can Expect From Lithium Companies' Earnings, Tesla Maintains Its Lofty Production Targets

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 14.02.2023 08:55
Summary:  Watch our video in under four minutes or read the text for what’s happening with Tesla shares, and Albemarle, the lithium proxy, plus what to consider if you are investing or trading. Tesla flashes red signals after a record rally; meaning some of its gains could be unwound  Tesla was one of the weakest in mega caps on Monday, while suffering its biggest two-day fall since January, losing 6.1%. Tesla shares have been bouncing off their lows and are up 93% with investors hopeful the Fed will pause rate hikes. However, some investors have been trimming gains, with the Fed hinting it could keep rates higher for longer. However, Tesla’s bulls may argue a potential Fed pause could support higher earnings, while Tesla maintains its lofty production targets. Consensus believes Tesla’s 2023 revenue will grow 28% to a new record, with EBITDA expected to swell 20% to a new high, with 12.5% EPS growth. However, from a technical perspective, Tesla’s relative strength index (RSI) is showing the stock rally is slowing, with Tesla trading in so called overbought territory - a technical level that could signal a potential reversal. The last time Tesla was this overbought was in November 2021. Lithium giant Albemarle reports earnings. Its results will be telling for the lithium sector's outlook   This week, the world's biggest lithium company, Albemarle reports earnings. Given its size and scale - with it selling to most EV makers including - Toyota, Ford, Mercedes, GM, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, Tesla and Renault – we think Albemarle will be a proxy for what we can expect from lithium companies' earnings. And its outlook could also guide us for what to expect this year from the lithium sector. Consensus expects operating profits to have improved and rise to $1.05 billion in the quarter. EBITDA is expected to grow to $1.22 billion, while net debt is expected to drop, with adjusted EPS forecast to grow to 8.19. Click here to look at more stocks to watch across the metals sector this week. For a list of lithium stocks and EV metal stocks, refer to Saxo's Equity baskets under Research, Stocks.   Read next: GBP/USD Started The New Week In A Calm Way, EUR/USD Is Waiting For US CPI Report| FXMAG.COM For our team's weekly look at markets, click here.  To listen to our global team's take on markets - tune into our Podcast.   Source: Video: Tesla shares flash red and could pull back. Albemarle, the lithium proxy is expected to report higher earnings | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Albemarle Will Be A Proxy For What We Can Expect From Lithium Companies' Earnings, Tesla Maintains Its Lofty Production Targets

Tesla Will Make Supercharger Network, Visa Will Allow The Use Of Cryptocurrencies To Settle Transactions

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 16.02.2023 11:46
Cryptocurrencies are becoming more and more popular. Visa takes the future of cryptocurrency as a means of payment very seriously. Tesla is the most popular manufacturer of electric cars, but it creates stations for non-Tesla customers. In this article: Visa and crypto Highest level since mid-August 2022 America electric vehicle charging network Visa and crypto The implementation of cryptocurrencies into everyday life is progressing much faster. Companies and financial institutions are aware that revolution and payments are just taking place and if someone is left behind, they may suffer the consequences, e.g. bankruptcy. Visa, an international payment technology company, announced that it will allow the use of cryptocurrencies to settle transactions in its payment network. This is a pilot programme. Visa is another international financial institution that is opening up to the world of cryptocurrencies. The global leader in payment technology begins cooperation with Crypto.com. You will be able to pay with a Visa Crypto debit card without having to convert funds from digital currency to traditional. The payment card provider announces that it intends to make its system available to fintech companies and neobanks dealing with cryptocurrencies. Cooperation with Crypto.com is another signal sent by Visa that it takes the future of cryptocurrency as a means of payment very seriously. #cryptonews: @Visa to launch #Bitcoin and #crypto cards in the UK and 40 other countries 🚀 — CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) February 16, 2023 Read next: Apple Is Facing Multiple Lawsuits And Enforcement Actions| FXMAG.COM Highest level since mid-August 2022 The cryptocurrency market is also very volatile. Coin prices could double before falling back to where they started, and it could all happen in one day. Bitcoin is the most popular currency among cryptocurrencies, which is why its movement is closely monitored. The price of Bitcoin on Thursday reached its highest level since mid-August 2022. Last year, nearly $1.4 trillion disappeared from the cryptocurrency market after the turmoil that brought bankruptcies, project and company failures. All this was crowned with the collapse of the large FTX exchange. Rising Federal Reserve interest rates to fight inflation have also weighed heavily on crypto markets. Bitcoin is also closely correlated with the stock markets, and in particular with the high-tech Nasdaq index. Bullish sentiment in risky assets was supported by the opinion that the economic slowdown may not be as bad as expected and the Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Thursday, rejecting the US government's tougher regulatory stance.The value of the entire cryptocurrency market increased by over $84.8 billion in 24 hours. Bitcoin surges 11% despite U.S. crackdown, as crypto market gains $84 billion in value https://t.co/MbkpNzGrVt — CNBC (@CNBC) February 16, 2023 America electric vehicle charging network In late 2024, Tesla will open 3,500 new and existing Supercharger stations along highway corridors to non-Tesla customers, as part of a $7.5 billion federal program. The move could help Tesla become a universal "gas station" of the EV era and risk losing its competitive advantage. WATCH: Tesla's U.S. charging network will be available to other electric vehicle brands for the first time as part of a $7.5 billion federal program to expand the use of EVs to cut carbon emissions, according to the Biden administration https://t.co/npz0Jh7wmR pic.twitter.com/l6QWJ84DYi — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 16, 2023
Earnings season: Tesla stock price slipped after yesterday's news. The best selling car in Q1 was Model Y

Tesla Has Been The Most Transacted Stock And CFD At Saxo

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 17.02.2023 09:59
Summary:  We cover the most traded instruments at Saxo for the third week of February, from what the most traded Futures, Stocks, CFDs, options and FX positions were for the week that was. We touch on how some clients are protecting themselves in case Tesla and or the S&P500 pulls back, plus why some clients are trading Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares. Here are the most traded instruments at Saxo Capital Markets Australia for the week ending February 17, 2023In Futures the most traded instrument for the week ending 17 February 2023 was the S&P500 E-Mini. We have been speaking about the S&P500 rally looking vulnerable of a pull back, so clients are expressing that view with perhaps futures.  Tesla (TSLA) has been the most transacted stock and CFD at Saxo for the week ending 17 February 2023. We have seen buying pick in up TSLA shares, but also in options as well; with clients using optionality to protect themselves in case of a potential pull back.  We've been speaking about Tesla shares trading in overbought territory after Tesla shares have run up over 90% from their lows, so perhaps some clients are using options as a protective cushion. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is the second most transacted upon stock/CFD at Saxo this week in Australia. Some buyers swooped in after CBA shares shed about 8% over the week. Market consensus expects CBA earnings to grow in 2023 - even despite the headwinds of CBA guiding for an uncertain year ahead - putting capital aside for bad debts with consumers feeling financial strain from inflationary pressures. And in Foreign Exchange (FX), the Aussie dollar against the US, the AUDUSD pair, was the most transacted upon currency pair after the Australian unemployment rate rose. This week at Saxo, there was more Aussie dollar selling, than buying, as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) task in rising rates to slow the pace of inflation - just got a little tougher - given the jobless rate surprisingly rose. This was not expected by the market or the RBA. The RBA previously expected the jobless rate to pick up later this year. However, at Saxo, we saw some clients taking a longer term view on the Aussie dollar (the AUDUSD pair), given commodity companies who reported this week, such as Fortescue Metals (FMG) gave bullish outlooks on China's reopening boosting resources demand, and that would theoretically support the Aussie dollar. For more on our bullish outlook on commodities, read our Quarterly Outlook.  Click here to look at more stocks to watch across the metals sector this week.For our team's weekly look at markets, click here. To listen to our global team's take on markets - tune into our Podcast.   Source: Financial Insights: Sharing the most traded instruments at Saxo for the week, including Tesla options picking up | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Twitter And Elon Musk Faced A Growing List Of Claims

Twitter And Elon Musk Face A Growing List Of Claims

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 20.02.2023 10:54
Tesla and Twitter CEO Elon Musk is struggling with more problems. From the side of Twitter with financial arrears, and from the side of Tesla - from the driver assistance system. List of claims Ever since Elon Musk took over, Twitter Inc. faced a growing list of claims. Owners, consultants and retailers have sought payment in at least nine lawsuits in recent months, with their complaints totaling more than $14 million plus interest. Among the alleged overdue notifications is an invoice for nearly $7,000 for a "gift box for Elon" ordered by Twitter's marketing department days before the $44 billion deal closed on October 27. Twitter obligation Twitter, which is now private, no longer publicly discloses its financial details. The company said last year it owed $239 million mostly for office space and data center facilities in 2023. In a January lawsuit, Canary LLC, a marketing firm that specializes in making items embellished with logos that are ubiquitous among Silicon Valley tech companies, alleged that Twitter owed nearly $400,000 for various Twitter-branded merchandise. Career on Twitter  Musk's pre-Twitter career involved navigating near financial doom, including Tesla Inc. who almost ran out of money. It overcame previous financial challenges by partly putting pressure on suppliers and vendors while saving cash was paramount. Musk inherited the bills when he took over more than three months ago and quickly introduced a more austere spending style as part of his trademark intensity. Twitter has undergone dramatic changes since late October as Musk raced to rework the company's product, which has suffered financial losses and cost-cutting from advertiser withdrawals and transaction-related debt costs. He cut staff sharply and countered spending tweets, including $13 million a year for employee meals at company headquarters. Early on, Musk complained that the company was losing more than $4 million a day and hinted bankruptcy was possible. Since then, he said the company is making progress. Read next: Meta Introduces Paid Verification Subscription Service| FXMAG.COM Twitter share price Twitter shares are trading at $53.70 Tesla Tesla, where Musk is also chief executive, worried its suppliers in 2018 as it struggled to ramp up production of the Model 3 compact car. During this time, the company extended payment terms from 60 days to 90 days. Tesla critical accident US auto safety regulators have stepped up investigations into accidents at the scene involving Tesla. A Tesla driver crashed into a Contra Costa County Fire Protection District truck that was parked in two lanes to block traffic while police officers assisted in towing the vehicle. A Tesla spokeswoman said the Tesla driver died at the scene. A passenger in the Tesla was transported to the hospital in critical condition. The condition of this person could not be immediately determined. The cause of the crash is still being investigated. It is unknown if the vehicle had Tesla's advanced driver assistance systems, known as Autopilot, activated at the time of the accident. Autopilot may be a problem The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the auto industry's primary regulator, has been investigating Tesla's advanced driver assistance system for more than a year after multiple crashes in emergency scenes. The NHTSA said Thursday that some Teslas may in rare circumstances violate local traffic laws, potentially increasing the risk of a collision if the driver does not intervene. The agency said it informed Tesla late last month of potential concerns about the system's characteristics specific to certain road environments. Autopilot is designed to help drivers with tasks such as steering and keeping a safe distance from other vehicles on the road. The electric car maker said features like Autopilot are meant to be used by a fully attentive driver. Tesla share price After Tesla's stock fell to 202.41, it bounced back to 208.31. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
Earnings season: Tesla stock price slipped after yesterday's news. The best selling car in Q1 was Model Y

Tesla Opens Its Global Engineering Headquarters In Palo Alto, California

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 23.02.2023 09:52
The car company, led by Musk, is in expansion mode to meet its goal of selling 20 million vehicles a year by the end of the decade. Tesla CEO Elon Musk met with California Governor Gavin Newsom on Wednesday to tour the automaker's new engineering headquarters. Criticism of the region Musk moved Tesla's headquarters to Texas from Silicon Valley in 2021, saying at the time that the company's ability to scale up in the San Francisco Bay Area was limited. He had previously compared California to a sports team that had rested on its laurels after a series of victories. The company has since opened vehicle manufacturing facilities in China, Texas and Germany. On Wednesday, Musk said Tesla will continue to invest in California even as it expands elsewhere. The meeting Tesla initiated the meeting after several previous attempts to establish talks. The meeting at Tesla's engineering office in Palo Alto, California, focused on the company's efforts to create jobs and expand in the state. The expansion will focus on hiring engineers proficient in research development and artificial intelligence. Tesla takes over the lease of office space previously occupied by Hewlett-Packard. The plans will help accelerate the development of autonomous driving and robot technology. Musk said the new facility is "actually Tesla's headquarters" and that it's "kind of a two-headquarters company." Tesla's headquarters are in Austin, Texas. Tesla in California Tesla maintains a presence in Silicon Valley even after moving its headquarters to Texas, and employs about 48,000 people in California, which is more than a third of the company's global workforce at year-end. Many of these employees work across the San Francisco Bay in Fremont, California, where the company's first automobile plant is located. This plant is capable of producing approximately 650,000 vehicles per year. Tesla has had layoffs in California over the past year. Last year Tesla laid off more than 200 people when it closed its San Mateo , California office . The site was home to employees who worked on Tesla's advanced driver assistance system known as Autopilot. Other companies run by Mr. Musk also have a presence in California. Twitter Inc. is headquartered in San Francisco, and rocket company SpaceX is based in Hawthorne. Read next: The AUD/USD Pair Remains Under Selling Pressure, The GBP/USD Pair Is Below 1.21 Again| FXMAG.COM Tesla in Texas Tech companies were among the first to send employees home at the start of the pandemic, and many of the industry's top players have allowed their employees to work remotely on a permanent basis. This shift has prompted many Silicon Valley workers and startup CEOs to relocate to other parts of the country in search of cheaper housing, less traffic, and a better quality of life. Texas, and especially its capital Austin, has attracted more tech companies and startups in recent years, offering lower taxes and less regulation than California and cheaper real estate. Musk moved Tesla's headquarters to Texas from Silicon Valley in 2021. Tesla is considering a more than $775 million expansion to its electric vehicle plant near Austin, Texas, indicating the automaker is maintaining ambitions to increase production. Chief Executive Elon Musk said last year that the company could open 10 to 12 new factories to boost production to meet its goal of selling 20 million vehicles by the end of the decade. Production Tesla last week reported vehicle deliveries for 2022 that fell short of Wall Street forecasts. Those estimates have already fallen after the automaker signaled in October that it would ship fewer vehicles than it originally intended. Despite challenges, including temporary production disruptions at its factory in China due to the Covid-19 outbreak, Tesla increased vehicle shipments by 40% last year compared to the previous year, handing over approximately 1.31 million vehicles. Tesla is also facing more competition in the electric vehicle market as more traditional car companies enter the market. Tesla share price On Wednesday, Tesla shares closed higher than the day before at 200.86. Source: wsj.com finance.yahoo.com
Musk Said Tesla’s Next Phase Of Growth Will Be Built Around Building Clean Energy Sources

The Adoption Of Electric Vehicles Has Accelerated At A Dizzying Pace

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 23.02.2023 14:54
Summary:  When Tesla cut its prices by 20% in mid-January it looked like lunacy because the EV-maker operates at a 25% gross margin which would surely compress its margins. Higher inventories by Q4 were an approximate cause but it turns out that the real decision variable was a high risk bet by Elon Musk and the management team that lithium carbonate prices had finally begun falling from its highs. By the time Tesla made its decision lithium carbonate prices were already down 20% and has continued down since down 34% from the peak. Tesla's bet is paying off for now but risks to its margin remain high. A risky bet by Elon Musk on lithium When Tesla in mid-January announced that it slashed its prices across its various car models by 20% on average it was a big shock to the car industry as an abrupt price change causes big disruptions in the secondary market. Our initial thought was that a 20% price cut on average is a desperate move considering a gross margin of 25%. It would effectively erode the majority of Tesla’s profits. The price cuts also led to angry customers that had just bought a new Tesla. Initially we thought that the price cut was to increase demand that had seen a negative impact from higher and more volatile electricity prices in many key markets. Tesla had also raised prices several times in the previous year increasing the price point. When Tesla announced its Q4 deliveries it was clear that inventory was building as deliveries were lower than production which is a bad signal of demand, but it also locks up capital on the balance sheet. While demand considerations were a key decision variable for Tesla something else was happening. During several speeches in the late part of 2022, Elon Musk expressed his frustration with lithium carbonate prices saying lithium refinery margins were making it a ‘gold mine’ and urged entrepreneurs to enter the industry. Around mid-November the 99.5% lithium carbonate price out of China topped out at CNY 598,000 per tonne and by the time of Tesla’s price cuts the price on lithium carbonate had fallen 20%. This is when Elon Musk and the management made their big bet aggressively cutting prices. It has since worked out for Tesla with lithium carbonate price down 34% from the peak in November offsetting most of Tesla’s hit to its gross margin. However, in the case that lithium carbonate prices should rebound it will eat into Tesla’s gross margin. One of the reasons why lithium carbonate prices are falling is of course extra supply coming into the market but also CATL’s, China’s largest battery maker, decision to dump prices as it is lowering its margin in its mining division to lower prices on its batteries and fuel demand even more. Lithium carbonate price | Source: Bloomberg Tesla share price | Source: Bloomberg EV adoption is continuing at a blistering pace While we are still waiting for Q4 delivery figures from VW and BMW it is safe to say that EV adoption is acceleration at a blistering pace. By the time we get the Q1 2023 figures it will show that BEV (battery EVs) deliveries will have increased 10x in just three years. With Toyota’s new CEO recently saying that Toyota has made a mistake on hybrids and would chase the BEV technology to catch up with Tesla the whole industry will massively accelerate production in the years to come. Extrapolating the expected trend in EV adoption will create massive changes to our society. Right now the current fleet of EVs is displacing around 1.5-2mn barrels per day of oil demand with passenger cars only being less than 20% of this displacement. The expected peak in oil demand from road transportation is expected in 2027, but with the current pace it could very likely earlier. By 2050 the oil demand from road transportation could be down more than 20mn barrels per day. If net-zero carbon is achieved then it is closer to 45mn barrels per day. These are some of the points that this transition will cause: Oil prices will likely remain high as oil and gas majors will adjust capital expenditures to reflect the rapidly declining oil demand. EVs will eventually lead to more stable electricity grids through V2G (vehicle-to-grid discharging) which will happen first in Europe, because the continent has the most advanced electricity grid in the world. Air pollutions levels in big cities will drastically improve potentially creating new biodiversity in cities Massive growth in electricity production potentially creating the second renaissance of electricity with the first growth phase happening 100 years ago. Electric utilities could transition away from boring stable growth to high growth companies. The transition will significantly increase the need for investments and thus add demand for capital underpinning the structural inflation outlook   Source: Teslas big bet on falling lithium is paying off | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
US electric vehicle market set for sustained growth despite stricter subsidy rules

Elon Musk Is Richest Man Again, The State Bank Of India Had Raised $1 Billion From Global Banks

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 28.02.2023 11:45
Elon Musk's name is no stranger to anyone. Mainly his person is associated with the company ev Tesla, and recently even with Twitter. From today, he is again associated with the title of the richest man. In this article: Europe's telecommunications infrastructure The funds Tax Day is coming soon The richest man Europe's telecommunications infrastructure Last week, the EU launched consultations to strengthen Europe's telecommunications infrastructure. It included a survey asking whether to set up a digital fund at EU or national level, or to require direct contributions from internet giants to telecommunications operators. Telecom groups are pushing European regulators to put in place a framework whereby companies carrying traffic on their networks are charged a fee. They say this - known as 'sender pays' - would help finance a massive upgrade to their infrastructure. Their logic is that some platforms, such as Amazon Prime and Netflix, process gigantic amounts of data and therefore should pay part of the bill for adding new capacity to cope with the increased load. Big Tech vs. Big Telco: Top EU official says there's no 'battle' over network funding https://t.co/qLdmDsMXw5 — CNBC (@CNBC) February 28, 2023 Read next: Altria Is Trying To Purchase E-Cigarette Startup NJOY| FXMAG.COM The funds The State Bank of India said on Tuesday it had raised $1 billion through syndicated peer-to-peer lending from global banks for further lending to certain types of social impact businesses in India. The funds will be used for further loans to microfinance institutions and self-help groups. And the loan can increase the bank's pressure to adopt ESG practices State Bank of India raises $1 billion via syndicated social loan for further lending https://t.co/TVcwGc5omC pic.twitter.com/ov5LEKWSal — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 28, 2023 Tax Day is coming soon Taxes aren't always something that just happens to you. In fact, you have much more control over the size of your commitment in any given year than you may realize. The new year has already started, but it's not too late to influence your tax situation in 2022. When it comes to taxes, it's always best to double-check your calculations and assumptions. If you have questions, talk to a tax advisor. Mistakes can quickly negate the potential benefits of tax-saving moves. Taxes are a nightmare for everyone. Proper preparation can be beneficial and will save you a lot of the stress that usually comes with it. Tax Day is coming soon. But it's not too late to manage your tax liability. Here are some moves to consider between now and April 18, the IRS filing deadline this year. https://t.co/BWtvHEUgv0 — Charles Schwab Corp (@CharlesSchwab) February 27, 2023 The richest man Elon Musk can make a lot of noise around his person. He wasn't the richest man for a while, but that changed. Since the beginning of the year, Tesla's share price on the New York Stock Exchange has increased by 100%. Elon Musk's company boasts record-high profits, and the billionaire himself has again become the richest man in the world. ELON MUSK RETAKES SPOT AS WORLD'S RICHEST PERSON — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 27, 2023
EXMO.COM analyst: Currently, Tesla is still trying to conquer the market by prioritising revenue over profit

Saxo Bank Podcast: Tesla's investor event, Eurozone-wide inflation print and more

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 02.03.2023 11:04
Summary:  Today we look at the market closing on a weak note on a fresh rise in Treasury yields and then spilling lower in later trading after Tesla's investor event was a damp squib. Elsewhere, inflation remains very much on the brain in Europe, with today's Eurozone-wide inflation print for February rounding out the set of February CPI reports across the bloc. In FX, sterling feels the heat on dithering BoE governor Bailey. In commodities, the latest on copper and crude oil and in equities, thoughts on where we are in the current historic drawdown. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Read next: Twitter Employees Are Overburdened As Elon Musk Tries To Run Twitter With Fewer Staff| FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Tesla nothingburger and 4.0% 10-yr yield sets market on tilt | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Earnings season: Tesla stock price slipped after yesterday's news. The best selling car in Q1 was Model Y

Tesla Intends To Cut Assembly Costs, The White House Released The National Cyber Strategy

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 02.03.2023 11:59
The car market is developing under the leadership of Tesla. The White House has tried to ensure security in cyberspace. In this article: The National Cyber Strategy Tesla’s official plan Inflation The National Cyber Strategy Security is a very important issue both nationally and personally. Cyber security in particular requires continuous innovation. The White House released the National Cyber Strategy on Thursday. The strategy is intended to show how the Biden administration intends to defend the US against the rapidly growing number of online threats. A key element of the new framework is shifting the burden of cybersecurity from individuals, small businesses and local governments to software developers and other institutions with the necessary resources and expertise. The White House proposes that legislation define the liability of software developers who fail to take reasonable precautions to protect their products and services. The strategy also includes a greater emphasis on encouraging long-term investment in cybersecurity, even for urgent threats White House aims to shift cybersecurity burden from individuals and small businesses to tech providers https://t.co/z31gOW6dGV — CNBC (@CNBC) March 2, 2023 Read next: Twitter Employees Are Overburdened As Elon Musk Tries To Run Twitter With Fewer Staff| FXMAG.COM Tesla’s official plan More than a dozen Tesla executives, led by Musk, discussed everything from the official plan for the world to introduce sustainable energy to the company's innovations in managing its operations, from manufacturing to services. Tesla intends to cut assembly costs in half on future generations of cars, engineers told investors on Wednesday. Tesla's chief financial officer, Zach Kirkhorn, and others have highlighted their commitment to lowering production costs. However, no details were given on when the new generation cars will be launched and what models will be offered. Tesla will cut assembly costs by half in future generations of cars, engineers told investors, but Chief Executive Elon Musk did not unveil when it will debut its affordable electric vehicle https://t.co/y6cXun7wbI $TSLA pic.twitter.com/uRDaLb3eyp — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) March 2, 2023 Inflation Monetary theory in economics consisted of different schools of thought rather than a single unified model. Each of these schools emphasizes different forces driving inflation and prescribes a distinct policy response. Different times presented different challenges. The revival of inflation now requires another change of emphasis in monetary policy. After a long period of low interest rates and low inflation, the world economy is entering a phase characterized by high inflation and high levels of public and private debt. Central banks seem to act as directors of modern economies, setting interest rates to stabilize inflation. Monetary policy requires a modified approach that is resilient to sudden and unexpected changes in the macroeconomic scenario. To address these issues, central banks should return to a monetary approach that prioritizes stabilizing inflation expectations. Policy cannot be tightened until inflation sets in. Instead, central banks should act as soon as red flags emerge. JUST RELEASED: The latest edition of F&D magazine delves into how high inflation and mounting levels of public and private debt are impacting monetary policy. Check it out ➡️ https://t.co/bfJzqo3H4c pic.twitter.com/JSTL3IX5YA — IMF (@IMFNews) March 1, 2023
European Markets Face Headwinds Amid Rising Yields and Inflation Concerns

Demand For Automotive Chips Will Continue To Grow As The Outlook For The Electric Vehicle Market Looks Solid

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 06.03.2023 10:43
Growing sales of electric vehicles — which typically use more semiconductors than their gas-powered counterparts — coupled with greater automation of all vehicles have kept car chip makers busy. Car chip boom Chip executives say the increase in the number of chips going into cars is staggering. As of 2021, the average car had about 1,200 chips, twice as many as in 2010, and that number is only likely to increase. Companies including Dutch automotive chip company NXP Semiconductors, German Infineon Technologies AG , Japanese Renesas Electronics Corp., an American company Analog Devices Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. recently reported growing sales in its automotive divisions and made good forecasts for this year. NXP's automotive chip sales grew 25% last year, and the company expects about 15% growth in the first quarter of this year. Renesas' automotive business grew nearly 40% last year, and analysts expect more growth this quarter. Analog Devices, which accounts for nearly a quarter of its sales in the automotive industry, posted 29% growth in this segment last year. It's not just the cars themselves that are using more and more chips; as will vehicle manufacturing as manufacturers introduce more automation to deal with labor shortages and try to cut costs, semiconductor executives said. Car chip resilience comes despite a historic drop in car sales last year, which was the lowest in more than a decade in the US. Sales have been hampered by supply chain issues, including a lack of chips necessary for a new generation of cars with a range of digitally enhanced features, from driver assistance technology to automatic windshield wiper control. The increased digitization of cars means that even lower vehicle sales do not reduce the demand for car chips. Prospects of EV market Long-term EV market outlook looks solid, Tesla Inc. hinted last week as chief executive Elon Musk detailed plans for his car company to increase sales to 20 million vehicles a year by 2030, up from around 1.3 million in 2022. Electric vehicle sales surpassed a global milestone last year, reaching around 10% market share for the first time. While EVs still represent a fraction of U.S. car sales, their share of the overall market is becoming significant in Europe and China. Tesla is still the dominant manufacturer of electric cars in the world, but conventional carmakers are reducing their lead with new electric models. European carmakers have focused their production and sales of electric vehicles on domestic markets in an effort to meet EU emissions regulations. They also began a more aggressive expansion of their electric vehicle business in other major markets last year, especially China and the US. Declines in other sectors of chipmakers The boom in automotive chips contrasts with sharp declines in other sectors of chipmakers whose products end up in electronics closely tied to consumer appetites. Intel Corp. , the largest U.S. chip maker by revenue, reported a loss in the fourth quarter and expects another loss this quarter, hit by a weakening demand for personal computers that house its chips. Rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. is also battling a volatile PC market where industry-wide shipments are expected to fall by 12.5% this year, according to recent Morgan Stanley estimates. Qualcomm Inc., known for its mobile phone chips, illustrates how some chip vendors feel both sides of market dynamics. The company saw an 18% drop in mobile phone revenue in the last fiscal quarter. NXP Semiconductors N.V. share prices NXP shares have been up since Feb 24. from 176.86 to 182.96. By comparison, Renesas shares also rose to 6.72, a record high in more than 10 years. Infineon Technologies shares also rose to 36.63 after falling to 35.43. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
Musk Said Tesla’s Next Phase Of Growth Will Be Built Around Building Clean Energy Sources

Muska's City For Tesla And SpaceX Employees

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 10.03.2023 10:16
Musk and his executives want his Austin-area employees, including those at Boring, electric car maker Tesla Inc. and space and exploration company SpaceX to be able to live in new homes at below-market rents. Musk’s city Elon Musk plans to build his own city on part of thousands of acres of newly purchased pasture and farmland outside the Texas capital. In meetings with landowners and real estate agents, Musk and his company employees described their vision as a kind of utopia in Texas along the Colorado River where his employees could live and work. Musk has been an advocate of affordable housing for workers. In 2018, during a public panel discussion with then-governor Brian Sandoval of Nevada, Musk spoke about building housing for Tesla employees next to the company's massive complex outside Reno. The planned city is adjacent to the Boring and SpaceX facilities that are currently under construction. The site already features a group of modular homes, a swimming pool, an outdoor sports area and a gym. The management of Musk's tunneling business, Boring Co., discussed and explored incorporating the city into Bastrop County, about 35 miles from Austin, which would allow Musk to set some regulations in his own municipality and advance his plans. Under Texas law, a city must have a population of at least 201 before it can apply for incorporation and subsequent approval by a county judge. Bastrop County has not received an application from Musk or any of its entities. Musk has been planning to build a city for a long time, and a few years ago he helped his brother, Kimbal Musk, perfect the idea of building an off-grid community. Musk's plans don't end with Texas. Last month, Tesla said it was continuing its expansion in California as well, and named the Palo Alto office as its engineering headquarters. Musk property Over the past three years, entities affiliated with Musk's companies or executives have purchased at least 3,500 acres in the Austin area, a total of about four times as much as New York's Central Park, according to county records and other land registries. Some local real estate and land officials said people close to Musk told them the billionaire owned even more land in the area - as much as 6,000 acres. Land purchases in Texas took place through at least four limited liability companies. These companies are linked to Musk's business or their officials in county and land registries and state business records that list their names. Musk was the main driver behind the plans, and all land purchases must be approved by him. In neighboring Bastrop County, about an hour southeast of Austin, SpaceX is building a 500,000-square-foot facility, and Boring is building a new warehouse across state road 1209. Read next: AUD/USD Rose Above 0.66, USD/JPY Drop Below 137.00| FXMAG.COM Tesla share price Since the beginning of the year, Tesla's share price has been rising towards 205.00, but since the beginning of March, the share price has started to fall below 200.00. Tesla shares recently closed at 170.85. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

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