Trends

NZDJPY resistance at 8555/75. Shorts need stops above 8590.  Targets: 8520, 8480.      CADJPY continues higher as expected but I have not managed to get us in to a long. I should have had us buying on a break above 102.90 so I will use this as a support today. Longs at 102.90/70, stop below 102.50.          EURJPY we unfortunately missed buying at first support at 149.75-65 by only 3 pips.  GBPCAD stuck in a 2 week range but longs at support at 167.60/40 worked last week on the bounce to my target of 168.55. Try longs again at support at 167.60/40 - stop below 167.10.   Targets: 168.20, 168.55, 168.80.Resistance at 1.6880/1.6900. Shorts need stops above 1.6920. Targets: 1.6845, 1.6820.    EURUSD collapsed as predicted on Sunday last week & finally hit my target & Fibonacci support at Fibonacci 1.0730/20, although we over ran to 1.0700. On Friday as predicted we did recover a little to my first target of target  1.0750/60 with a high for the day exactly here.  No buy signal yet but a break above 1.0750/60 tests strong resistance at 1.0790/1.0810. I would try a short here with stop above 1.0830. Longs at 1.0730/10 could be risky but if you try, stop below 1.0695.  A break below 1.0695 this week should be a sell signal & can target 1.0630, then 1.0600, perhaps as far as 1.0570.       GBPUSD bounced from just above good support at 1.2290/80 in severely oversold conditions which was as expected. The pair beat minor resistance at 1.2360/70 but a short position at 1.2390/1.2400 worked perfectly with a high for the day exactly here & a nice tumble to my targets of 1.2340 & 1.2320. A low for the day exactly here in fact.  Could hardly have been more accurate on the levels for GBPUSD last week. Again shorts at 1.2390/1.2400 should stop loss above 1.2420. Targets: 1.2340 & 1.2320. I am not going to suggest a long as I think there is a good chance we will continue lower this week. Watch for a break below the 100 day moving average at 1.2290/80 to trigger further losses despite severely oversold conditions.

Higher timeframes Last week, the pair closed with a candle of uncertainty, returning to the area of attraction and influence of the daily short-term trend (1.0719) and the final level of the weekly golden cross of the Ichimoku, which is currently at 1.0717. Consolidation below these levels and a breakdown of the zone of the daily upward correction (1.0636) will bring back the downward trend and bearish targets to the market.       The nearest prospects for strengthening bearish sentiment in the current situation can be noted in the support zone of 1.0579 - 1.0557 - 1.0515 - 1.0497 (monthly Fibonacci Kijun + weekly Senkou Span B + downside target for breaking the daily cloud). If buyers return to the market, attention will be focused on bullish targets, which are still located in the area of the daily cloud. The resistance levels of the daily (1.0810 - 1.0864 - 1.0918) and weekly (1.0789 - 1.0862 - 1.0866) Ichimoku crosses, as well as the daily cloud (1.0806 - 1.0956) and the monthly medium-term trend (1.0901), currently serve as bullish benchmarks.     H4 - H1 On lower timeframes, buyers currently have the upper hand. They have established themselves above key levels, turning them into supports in case of a correction. The key levels are currently located at 1.0731-18 (central pivot point + weekly long-term trend). If the ascent continues within the day, resistance from the classic pivot points R2 (1.0806) and R3 (1.0831) may come into play.     Higher timeframes Last week, buyers tested important levels, such as the weekly short-term trend (1.2492) and the final levels of the daily death cross of the Ichimoku (1.2492 - 1.2536), but were unable to close the week above them. With the start of a new trading week, these levels have maintained their positions and continue to be the nearest significant benchmarks for the emergence of new bullish prospects. The location of the most important support levels for the bears on this segment has not changed either. The support zone is quite wide and includes the levels of the weekly Ichimoku cross (1.2343 - 1.2240 - 1.2137) and the monthly medium-term trend (1.2302).     H4 - H1 On lower timeframes, the pair tested the strength of the weekly long-term trend (1.2428) and consolidated below it. The next targets for a decline are now the supports of the classic pivot points S2 (1.2373) and S3 (1.2307). Consolidation above the key levels of 1.2428 - 1.2476 (weekly long-term trend + central pivot point) will bring back the buyers. The next bullish targets within the day will be the resistances of the classic pivot points (1.2513 - 1.2579 - 1.2616).     The technical analysis of the situation uses: Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels Lower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)      

iFX EXPO Asia 2023 returns to Bangkok with only a few weeks to go until the event gets underway. Find out what to expect at the world’s largest B2B financial expo, which is heading back to Thailand for the second year running.   The countdown is on for the latest edition of iFX EXPO, the largest B2B expo for the financial sector, which returns to Bangkok for the second time, following on from last year’s event which proved to be a resounding success. iFX EXPO Asia 2023 takes place once again at Centara Grand & Bangkok Convention Centre at CentralWorld from 20 to 22 June 2023, bringing together thousands of industry professionals from across the region and the globe in the heart of the Thai capital. The event presents the perfect opportunity for attendees to learn about the latest trends in financial technology, network with industry leaders, and build new relationships. With only a couple of weeks until the expo opens its doors, we take a closer look at what to expect this time round.   Big Industry Players Some of the world’s largest and most successful financial companies have confirmed their attendance at iFX EXPO Asia 2023, with several already signing up for Exhibitor and Sponsorship packages, sales of which have now closed. Headlining the impressive list of sponsors is XS.com, with the trusted multi-asset broker being named as the Official Global Partner of the event. Other notable companies on board, include state-of-the-art algorithmic trading innovator OpixTech, who will be the Elite Sponsor of the showpiece event, while UEZ Markets feature as a Regional Sponsor. Joint Diamond Sponsors this year will be ZuluTrade and Equiti Capital, with B2Broker, CXM Direct, and Swissquote each becoming Platinum Sponsors. Leading the comprehensive list of exhibitors are MetaQuotes, Solitics, Trading Central, cTrader, Pepperstone, Admirals, AAAFx, STICPAY, and AdRoll – while many more organisations having secured their attendance by reserving a booth on the expo floor.   See the Full Agenda The final agenda is officially confirmed! One thing for certain is that there is so much to look forward to at the expo, starting with the Welcome Party on 20 June on Floor 22 of the venue, where attendees get the opportunity to meet and greet industry leaders and experts in an informal setting – before the serious business gets underway.  The main event kicks off the next day with the opening of the expo doors, serving as a hub of expertise where professionals can connect and exchange ideas across the expo floor and various locations within the 22nd floor, including the Executive and Business Lounges, and The Bar. There will also be 100+ expert speakers each leading insightful discussions on a range of industry-related topics in both the Speaker Hall and Idea Hub.  Meanwhile, the famous Night Party takes place at the Sing Sing Theater in between the two full expo days on the evening of 21 June, where eventgoers can sample the fun side of iFX EXPO at what has in recent times become a legendary slot in the calendar. For a full breakdown of the daily schedule, please visit here.   Download the Official App You can also keep updated with all things iFX EXPO from the palm of your hand by simply downloading the Official iFX EXPO App, exclusively available to registered attendees across iOS and Android devices. Enjoy an enhanced expo experience on-the-go! Here you can maximise your networking potential with AI-driven matchmaking, exchange contact details using Badge Scan, and view the agenda and build your own personal schedule. The app also allows you to exchange messages and schedule meetings with new business contacts, match with potential clients or buyers, navigate through the floorplan and event agenda, and explore the profiles of all the sponsors, exhibitors, and attendees.   Claim your Free Pass There are only a few days left to secure your place! Registrations are still open, so make sure you register to get your free pass, which includes: Access to the expo hall iFX EXPO Networking App accessibility  Entry to the Speaker Hall and Idea Hub Admission to Sponsored F&B Areas Entry to the Business Lounges Access to the iFX EXPO Parties   Register now to grab your free pass: https://bangkok2023.ifxexpo.com/register/    See you in Bangkok Don't miss out on the highly anticipated iFX EXPO Asia 2023 in Bangkok! With just a few weeks left until the event begins, it's time to secure your free pass and prepare for an extraordinary experience. Register now to join this unparalleled B2B financial expo, where you can explore the latest trends in the fintech landscape, connect with industry peers, and forge valuable partnerships.  Remember to book your accommodation so you can benefit from a special rate, exclusively available to iFX EXPO delegates. To find out more, click here.  

All eyes on central bankers as Fed, ECB meet The dollar struggled in lackluster trading last week, as the rebound in commodity prices and improving investor sentiment meant the main 2023 trends continue to drive markets: a soft dollar, and a particularly strong showing by commodity currencies.   Latin American currencies continue to shine, and at the other end, we have the Turkish lira, spiralling down week after week as markets lose patience with Erdogan's bizarre fiscal and monetary notions.   After a news-light week, markets are bracing for the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings. Markets are pricing in a one-third chance of a hike from the Fed Wednesday. However, the release of the critical inflation report for May the day before means that some FOMC members likely will not decide their vote until the day of the meeting. The ECB decision is an easier call, with markets and strategists universally expecting a 25 bp hike; the key there will be the new staff forecasts and the hawkishness of the communications. Expect plenty of volatility.

Based on current trends, it appears that interest rates have not yet reached their peak In the coming months, we expect more increases in interest rates, which could put further pressure on affordability. The 12-month Euribor benchmark interest rate, which guides mortgage rates, is expected to rise further, although interest rates are believed to be close to their peak. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already hinted at a 25 basis point rate hike at its upcoming meeting in July. Recent hawkish statements by some ECB members seem to indicate that one or more rate hikes will follow after the summer. This will put additional upward pressure on the Euribor. On top of that, mortgage rates have yet to catch up after the rapid rise in Euribor. Based on current trends, mortgage rates will continue to rise in the coming months. We expect the average variable rate (with a fixed-rate period of up to five years) for mortgages to potentially peak at 5% in the second half of this year. This projection reflects a significant increase from the rate of 3.9% recorded in April 2023. The upside potential for fixed interest rates is even bigger. Currently, there is an atypical scenario where floating rates are higher than fixed rates. This suggests that fixed interest rates have even more room to rise and again exceed floating rates.   Evolution of interest rates on mortgage loans and Euribor 12M    

Top 10 Stocks to Watch: August 2023 BY:RYAN SULLIVAN Our list of hot summer stocks includes ecommerce, auto, gambling, entertainment, retail and AI S&P 500 E-Mini Futures reached a year-to-date high of about $4,600, with potential for new all-time highs if it surpasses resistance at $4,630 and $4,700.  The $4,500 support level could be tested if the current bull run ends, possibly triggering another push toward all-time highs.  Stock options can be beneficial after earnings reports to dodge binary volatility but exploit short-term fluctuations.  Market update: S&P 500 e-mini futures up 18% year to date  The S&P 500 e-mini futures—electronically-traded futures and options contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)—pushed to new year-to-date highs this month on July 12. Since then, we have continued higher to $4,600. We are currently retesting this year-to-date (YTD) high. As I type, the S&P is ticking into $4,600. The next key resistance level above current price action is around $4,630, and the next stop after that is around $4,700.  If price action breaks through $4,630 with force, look for bulls to target $4,700. If that happens as we roll into August, and we do tag $4,700, it would not be too surprising if we try to push to new all-time highs in the S&P 500.    It is also possible that this is the last leg up for the current bull run that started at the end of May this year. If that is the case, the next thing the bears are going to want to test is the $4,500 level support. If $4,500 support holds, we could then see a push to all-time highs anyway.   If the market doesn’t want to record an all-time high yet, it is likely that price action bounces around $4,500 looking for either buyers or sellers to take control.  A quick note on the stock picks in this article; you can put on an options position right after an earnings report, so that you can avoid the binary volatility event but still take advantage of short-term volatility.    Year-to-date price percent change chart for SPY, QQQ, SLV and TLT     Top 10 stocks to watch in August 2023   UBER – 8/1 - Before the Open  AMD – 8/1 - After the Close  PYPL - 8/2 - After the Close  SHOP – 8/2 - After the Close  AMZN – 8/3 - After the Close  DKNG – 8/3 - After the Close  RIVN - 8/8 - After the Close  DIS – 8/9 - After the Close  TGT - 8/16 - Before the Open  NVDA – 8/23 - After the Close  1) Uber Technologies Uber (UBER), a multinational ride-hailing company, disrupted traditional taxi services. Beyond transportation, Uber has diversified into new verticals like food delivery with Uber Eats and freight logistics with Uber Freight. It operates in numerous cities globally and primarily makes money by taking a commission from each ride or delivery.  Uber stock is trading at $47.28, an 86.34% increase from its 2023 opening price of $25.37. The current implied volatility rank (IVR) on the tastytrade platform is 34.5, with the implied volatility (IV) in the next two monthly contracts above 47. Uber has reported positive net income in one of the last five quarterly reports.  Uber’s options market in August and September contracts is a couple pennies wide and offers a field to craft almost any assumption you might have. The product is small enough for a strangle position in smaller accounts. Iron Condors and spreads will also set up well. August and September contracts can be used for earnings plays. It may be helpful to play earnings in August and roll out to September if you need to.     2) Advanced Micro Devices Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), a leading global semiconductor company, designs and builds processors and graphic cards for computers and professional systems. AMD is known for its consumer- and professional-grade CPUs (central processing units) under the Ryzen, Threadripper and EPYC brands, as well as Radeon GPUs (graphic processing units). The company competes directly with Intel (INTC) in the CPU market and Nvidia (NVDA) in the GPU market.  AMD is trading at $112.36, up 70.25% from its opening price of $66.00 in 2023. The IVR on the tastytrade platform is 45.4, with IV in the next two monthly contracts above 49. AMD has reported positive net income in four of the last five quarterly reports.  This options market in August and September is pennies wide and offers the opportunity to form almost any options position you’d like to put on. Five- and 10-dollar wide iron condors and spreads set up well. Make your earnings play in August and roll out to September if you need to.    3) PayPal Holdings PayPal (PYPL), an American company operating a worldwide online payments system, supports online money transfers. PayPal serves as an electronic alternative to traditional paper methods like checks and money orders, enabling users to make payments or hold funds in 25 currencies. The company also offers services like credit product offerings and has business solutions that help merchants collect payments.  PayPal is trading at $73.42, a -0.37% change from its 2023 opening price of $73.69. The IVR on the tastytrade platform is 25.3, and the IV in the next two monthly contracts is above 42. Paypal has reported positive net income in four of the last five quarterly reports.  Paypal’s options market in August and September is pennies wide. An eighteen-delta short Strangle sets up well in August and September with a decent premium to buying power requirement ratio. Short thirty-delta Spreads also set up well if you have a directional assumption.    4) Shopify  Shopify (SHOP), a Canadian e-commerce company, provides a platform for businesses to create their own online stores. Shopify offers tools for managing products, inventory, payments and shipping, which are used by businesses of all sizes. Shopify's platform is subscription-based, and it also generates revenue from its payment processing system, Shopify Payments, as well as other merchant solutions.  Shopify is trading at $65.26, up 82.9% from its opening price of $35.68 in 2023. The IVR on the tastytrade platform is 32.6, with the IV in the next two monthly contracts above 58. Moreover, SHOP has reported positive net income in one of the last five quarterly reports.  Short 17-delta Strangles set up well in August and September, with a good premium collected to buying power required ratio. Iron condors and spreads will also set up well if you’d like to define your risk going into an earnings play.    5) Amazon  Amazon (AMZN), an American multinational technology company that started as an online marketplace for books, but has expanded to a wide variety of products and services. It is known for its disruption of well-established industries through technological innovation and mass scale. It is now the world's largest online marketplace, AI assistant provider, live-streaming platform and cloud computing platform, with various other operations in areas like digital streaming, brick-and-mortar retailing and more.  Amazon is trading at $129.10, reflecting a 51.06% increase from its opening price in 2023. The IVR on the tastytrade platform is 30.3, and the IV in the next two monthly contracts is above 38. Amazon has reported positive net income in three of the last five quarterly reports.  Amazon’s options market is very liquid and pennies wide in August and September. A liquid market like Amazon's offers the opportunity to craft almost any type of options position you’d like create. Calendar spreads are available if you’d like to take advantage of the difference in volatility between monthly contracts. Strangles, iron condors and spreads also set up well.     6) DraftKings  DraftKings (DKNG), a digital sports entertainment and gaming company, provides daily fantasy sports, sports betting and iGaming. DraftKings enables users to enter daily and weekly contests and win money based on individual player and team performances in five major American sports, Premier League and UEFA Champions League soccer, NASCAR auto racing, Canadian Football League, mixed martial arts, and tennis.   DraftKings is trading at $31.50, marking a significant increase of 170.15% from its 2023 opening price of $11.66. The IVR on the tastytrade platform is 28.2, while the IV in the next two monthly contracts stands above 60. However, DKNG has not reported positive net income in any of its last five quarterly reports.  DKNG is a small enough product and has liquid enough markets for smaller accounts to consider an undefined risk position. However, be cautious because smaller underlyings tend to make bigger moves when they get going. At-the-money spreads also set up well for directional assumptions.   Read more

Metals – China's copper exchange inventories drop further Weekly data from Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) show that inventories for base metals remained mixed over the last week. Copper stocks fell by 9,138 tonnes (-15% week-on-week) for a third consecutive week to 52,152 tonnes (the lowest since the week ending on 30 September 2022) as of last Friday. In contrast, inventories of other major metals reported inflows, with aluminium inventories rising by 1,811 tonnes (+1.8% WoW) to 112,807 tonnes at the end of last week. Meanwhile, weekly exchange inventories for zinc, lead and nickel rose by 1.1%, 5.7% and 9.7% respectively as of Friday. Meanwhile, the latest CFTC data show that speculators increased their bullish bets in COMEX copper by 8,011 lots for a third consecutive week over the last reporting week, leaving them with a net long position of 21,513 lots as of last Tuesday. Moving to precious metals, speculators decreased their bullish bets in COMEX gold by 16,954 for a second straight week, to leave them with a net long of 99,337 lots, while increasing their net long in silver by 7,487 lots as of last Tuesday.

Big swings in 2023, but global sustainable finance remains in rude health Sustainable finance product has seen some remarkable trends so far in 2023 – exceptional growth in green issuance contrasts with big falls in US and Asian issuance for example. We find good reasons to get more upbeat ahead, including a bounce in US issuance. Enhanced standardisation and reporting dominate positives ahead.   This year has been one of change for the global sustainable finance market. After several years of rapid growth fueled by the first waves of net-zero announcements and Covid-related sustainability financing, the market was disrupted in 2022 on the back of geopolitical tensions, uncertain economic outlooks, and higher financing costs. From that re-basing, 2023 has been a testing year for sustainable finance, partly due to caution from regional anti-ESG movements and greater Environmental, Social, and Governance scrutiny. Ahead we expect investors to continue to demand higher-quality issuance, with policies mandating sustainability data disclosure serving as an important tool to benchmark against. Despite these headwinds, issuance volumes through 2023 have been decent, and there have in fact been some quite dramatic changes within the breakdown.   Global issuance volume of 2023 possibly to exceed that of 2022 Global sustainable finance product issuance totaled $717bn in the first half of 2023. Although this volume registered a 7% year-on-year decrease, it is higher than the second half of 2022 and the whole year’s volume for 2023 still has the potential to exceed 2022’s volume. The cautious optimism is caused by multiple factors. A higher ESG data disclosure outlook can create a more easily workable environment for issuance, clean energy policies such as the US Inflation Reduction Act can continue to spur sustainability efforts, increasingly extreme weather events could motivate issuers to finance long-term climate mitigation, and sustained government efforts can increase the issuance of sovereign ESG debt.   Global issuance of sustainable finance products   EMEA remains the most resilient while Americas face headwinds We are seeing some regional differences in terms of volume growth. The region of Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) has been the most resilient market, with issuance in the first half of 2023 recovering from the second half of 2022, back a level comparable to the first half of 2022 and second half of 2021. This is largely driven by a consistently developing sustainable finance policy environment in Europe (more on this below).   The Americas, in contrast, experienced a 21% decrease in issuance in the first half of 2023 compared to the second half of 2022, an extension of consecutive half-year drops since the second half of 2021. While likely not a determinative factor, the backdrop of anti-ESG voices has introduced disruption, uncertainty, and risks for both investors and issuers. There has in consequence been, understandably, an extra layer of questioning when it comes to issuing sustainable finance products.   One ongoing positive underpinning for the US is the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). With $370 billion planned on energy security and climate change, the IRA has shaken up the clean energy space in the US. The tax credits under the IRA are expected to support not only relatively more established technologies such as wind, solar, electric vehicles, and nuclear, but also emerging technologies such as hydrogen and CCS. Meanwhile, there is also significant direct funding available through government agencies in grants (c.$82bn) and loans (c.$40bn). Such funding will be crucial in readying the technologies for private investment and widespread adoption.   The Asia Pacific (APAC) region has also seen a decline in the first half of 2023 compared to the previous half. Such a drop might have stemmed from a more cautious global market generally, but there can still be hope for APAC to catch up on issuance in the second half of 2023. Green products are looking to be a key growth force for the APAC market with a considerable need to finance decarbonisation as well as government support for clean energy adoption.   Global sustainable finance issuance by region    

France’s solid labour market is starting to cool France's unemployment rate rose slightly in the second quarter. The low point seems to have been passed, and the trend over the next few quarters is likely to be upwards.   Unemployment rate still historically low, but no longer falling France's unemployment rate stood at 7.2% in the second quarter, up slightly from the first quarter's low point of 7.1%. Despite the additional 20,000 unemployed, the unemployment rate remains historically low, down 1 point on its pre-health crisis level (8.2%). Furthermore, the employment rate remained at its highest level since the start of the series (1975) and stable over the quarter at 68.6% (of the population aged between 15 and 64). There was a significant rise in the employment rate for the oldest age groups (55-64), up 0.7 points over the quarter.   A renewed fall in the unemployment rate in the coming months seems unlikely From all the data published by INSEE, it's clear the French labour market remains very solid. Nevertheless, despite stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, the trend is for the labour market to cool, and the unemployment rate appears to have bottomed out. A renewed fall in the unemployment rate in the coming months seems unlikely. Signs of a deterioration in the economic outlook remain strong, and growth is likely to be weaker in the coming quarters. Indicators are also pointing to a further cooling in the labour market in the future; companies' hiring intentions are falling, especially in the services sector. Industrial companies are beginning to report more problems of demand than of supply, and the proportion of companies seeing the lack of labour as a factor limiting production is decreasing. Nevertheless, this proportion remains at a historically high level. We believe that the worsening economic outlook should slow the pace of hiring by companies, which would hinder job creation and lead to a gradual rise in the unemployment rate over the coming quarters. After years of strong job creation, job destruction is likely to be seen in 2024 and 2025, leading to a slight rise in the unemployment rate. We expect it to be 7.3% at the end of this year, 7.4% in 2024 and 7.5% in 2025.

France’s solid labour market is starting to cool France's unemployment rate rose slightly in the second quarter. The low point seems to have been passed, and the trend over the next few quarters is likely to be upwards.   Unemployment rate still historically low, but no longer falling France's unemployment rate stood at 7.2% in the second quarter, up slightly from the first quarter's low point of 7.1%. Despite the additional 20,000 unemployed, the unemployment rate remains historically low, down 1 point on its pre-health crisis level (8.2%). Furthermore, the employment rate remained at its highest level since the start of the series (1975) and stable over the quarter at 68.6% (of the population aged between 15 and 64). There was a significant rise in the employment rate for the oldest age groups (55-64), up 0.7 points over the quarter.   A renewed fall in the unemployment rate in the coming months seems unlikely From all the data published by INSEE, it's clear the French labour market remains very solid. Nevertheless, despite stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, the trend is for the labour market to cool, and the unemployment rate appears to have bottomed out. A renewed fall in the unemployment rate in the coming months seems unlikely. Signs of a deterioration in the economic outlook remain strong, and growth is likely to be weaker in the coming quarters. Indicators are also pointing to a further cooling in the labour market in the future; companies' hiring intentions are falling, especially in the services sector. Industrial companies are beginning to report more problems of demand than of supply, and the proportion of companies seeing the lack of labour as a factor limiting production is decreasing. Nevertheless, this proportion remains at a historically high level. We believe that the worsening economic outlook should slow the pace of hiring by companies, which would hinder job creation and lead to a gradual rise in the unemployment rate over the coming quarters. After years of strong job creation, job destruction is likely to be seen in 2024 and 2025, leading to a slight rise in the unemployment rate. We expect it to be 7.3% at the end of this year, 7.4% in 2024 and 7.5% in 2025.

In this interview, we sit down with Paweł Majtkowski to delve into the intricate web of macroeconomic data shaping the British economy. As a seasoned economic analyst, Mr. Majtkowski provides his expert insights on the latest series of economic indicators from the UK. From GDP growth and inflation figures to employment rates and trade balances, we explore the trends, challenges, and potential opportunities that lie ahead for the UK's economic landscape. Join us as we navigate through the numbers and uncover the narratives behind the data-driven journey of the British economy.   FXMAG.COM: Let me ask you to comment on the whole series of macroeconomic data from the British economy. However, will it enter a recession? What does this data say about further potential rate hikes in the UK? The UK continues to struggle with high inflation. In June, it stood at 7.3 per cent year-on-year. The British economy is therefore experiencing difficult times, not least because of 14 consecutive interest rate rises in a row. Domestically, there is economic stagnation. However, the GDP results - 0.5 % growth last month and 0.2 % in the second quarter - are better than analysts' expectations. With such modest growth, it is the details that count. Economic activity increased in June due to very good weather (the best since 1884), there were more working days in May than in previous years and this helped to offset the effects of ongoing strike action. The services sector, which dominates UK GDP, is benefiting from low (structural) unemployment and rising wages. This, in turn, is a cause for concern for the Bank of England and especially its hawkish representatives. Further rate rises cannot therefore be ruled out. The manufacturing sector and the real estate market, on the other hand, are performing worse. Not insignificant for the UK is the fact that its second largest trading partner, Germany, has already slipped into recession. This is a result of falling manufacturing and a very slow recovery in China.   Paweł Majtkowski, eToro Market Analyst

  UK wages surge to a new record high in June   By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)   There was always the likelihood that today's unemployment and wages numbers would give the Bank of England a headache when it comes to deciding what to do when it comes to further rate increases, and this morning's numbers have not just given the central bank a headache, but a migraine.   Not only has the unemployment rate jumped to its highest level since October 2021 at 4.2%, but wages growth surged in June, while the May numbers were also revised higher.   Average weekly earnings for the 3-months to June rose to a record 7.8%, while May was revised up to 7.5%, while including bonuses wages rose by 8.2%, in the process pushing well above core CPI inflation. This move to 8.2% was primarily due to NHS bonus one-off payments made in June, which is unlikely to be repeated.   The rise in wage growth saw public sector pay rise by 6.2%, while private sector wages rose 8.2% for the 3-months to June.   Inevitably this will increase the pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates again at its September meeting by another 25bps, even as headline CPI for July is expected to slow sharply below 7% in numbers released tomorrow.   On the broader employment picture there was a 97k increase in hiring during July as payrolled employees increased. On the overall UK employment rate, this fell back to 75.7%, and is still 0.8% below its pre-pandemic peak, with the economic activity rate also falling slightly to 20.9% on the quarter. Total hours work also declined.   While many people will decry the strength of these numbers and warn of the risk of wage/price spiral they rather miss the point that consumer incomes have been squeezed for months, with the gap finally narrowing, and now starting to work in consumer's favour.         Source: Bloomberg   This trend is likely to continue in the coming months as wage growth starts to slow and falling CPI starts to find a base, offering consumers some relief from the squeeze of the last 18 months.   It's also important to remember that wage price gap leading up the end of 2021, was very much in the consumers favour, however this comparison also comes with several caveats due to furlough payments and other support structures which skewed the numbers.   While today's wages data will undoubtedly grab all the headlines, there are growing signs of weakness in the labour market which may offer the Bank of England pause, and with another 2 CPI reports, one tomorrow, as well as another labour market survey before the next meeting, it doesn't mean that we can expect to see multiple rate hikes in the coming months. While the pressure on the Bank of England to hike in September has undoubtedly risen and is fully priced for September it doesn't necessarily mean we'll see more rate hikes after that. Trends are important and the Bank of England needs to think about that before it raises rates further, and inflation is trending lower. UK 2-year gilts have edged higher and back above 5.1%   The Bank of England needs to remember that they've already raised rates 14 times in the last few months and there is still a lot more tightening that has yet to kick in. On this data another rate hike does seem likely but when you look at the graph above perhaps there's a case for a pause in September given the direction of that graph above. What today's data does mean beyond little doubt is that rates will need to stay at current levels for longer. More rate hikes aren't necessarily the solution to every problem. Just because every problem is a nail, doesn't mean you need a hammer. Just leave rates where they are for longer.   Consumers are already struggling and although we've seen Marks & Spencer update its full year forecasts for profits this morning, the upgrade has come against a backdrop of a strong performance in its food business, which saw like-for-like sales rise 11%.   Clothing and home sales saw like for like sales rise by 6%, with M&S warning that a tightening consumer market could act as a headwind into the year end. Tellingly, management upgraded their outlook to show profit growth in fiscal 2022-23.    

In the ever-evolving world of finance, recent developments have brought about significant changes in the banking sector. From historic profits to a shift away from remote work, these developments are reshaping the industry. Let's explore the key events that are making waves in the financial world.   Historic Profits at UBS One of the standout events in the financial sector is UBS's remarkable Q2 profit of $28.8 billion. This achievement can be largely attributed to the bank's acquisition of Credit Suisse, marking it as a historic milestone. This financial juggernaut's success underscores the importance of strategic acquisitions in the banking industry.   Return-to-Office Initiatives In a noteworthy shift, banks are taking a tougher stance on employees who prefer remote work. The era of widespread remote work, necessitated by the pandemic, is slowly coming to an end. Banks are now urging their staff to return to the office, signaling a return to pre-pandemic work norms. This change carries implications for work culture and the future of office spaces in the banking world.   Carbon Credit Market Uncertainty Confidence in the carbon credit market is waning. Carbon credits have been a vital tool in mitigating climate change, but recent events have raised concerns. As major players step back from the market, questions are being raised about its future effectiveness. The uncertainties surrounding carbon credits could have far-reaching consequences for environmental policies and sustainability efforts.   China's Economic Boost China, a key player in the global economy, is actively taking steps to boost its economic standing and strengthen its currency. As the world watches China's efforts to stimulate its economy, the implications for global markets are significant. The strategies employed by China could influence trade, investment, and currency dynamics on a global scale.   Airline Earnings Under Pressure The airline industry is facing headwinds as earnings outlooks dim. Factors such as rising fuel costs and economic uncertainties are impacting the profitability of airlines. As travelers cautiously return to the skies, airline companies are navigating a complex and challenging landscape.   NYC's Pension CIO Perspective In the realm of investment, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of New York City's Pension Fund provides insights into the impact of Wall Street's Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) pullback. Despite the recent trend of ESG considerations in investments, NYC's Pension Fund remains resilient, shedding light on the varying responses of institutional investors to ESG factors. The banking and financial sector is undergoing a period of significant transformation. UBS's historic profit, the return-to-office trend, carbon credit market concerns, China's economic endeavors, airline industry challenges, and the nuanced response to ESG factors are all contributing to a dynamic landscape. These developments not only shape the industry but also have broader implications for the global economy. As the financial world continues to evolve, staying informed and adaptable is key to navigating these changes successfully.    

Asia Morning Bites China's data deluge draws near. ECB hikes rates while US retail sales surprise on the upside.   Global Macro and Markets Global markets:  We will start today with FX, given the ECB meeting yesterday, and the response of the market to what our Head of Global Macro is describing as a dovish hike. EURUSD has dropped sharply to 1.0640, and this has taken the GBP lower too, now trading at just over 1.24. The BoE meets next week and is also expected to hike  - also perhaps its last. The AUD has not been much impacted by this move, though despite the stronger-than-expected labour data yesterday, markets seem relaxed and are expecting no further tightening. We are not so relaxed. The JPY was also a little softer, rising to 147.50 . Other Asian FX was fairly quiet yesterday. The CNY is still hovering below 7.28 ahead of today’s big data release. European bond yields dropped after the ECB decision. The yield on the 10Y bond fell 5.8bp to 2.588%. US Treasury yields were not affected by the European news and had to contend with another stronger-than-expected macro release in the form of retail sales. The US 10Y Treasury yield rose 3.8bp to 4.286%, while yields on 2Y USTs rose 4.2bp to 5.011%. Equity markets seemed to like the sense that rates aren’t going any higher (if you believe the central bankers, and it's not like they have a great track record!). The S&P 500 rose 0.84% while the NASDAQ rose 0.81%. The NASDAQ is up 33.05% year-to-date, just in case you’d lost track. Triple witching today, so it may be volatile. Chinese stocks didn’t do a lot yesterday. The Hang Seng rose 0.21%, while the CSI 300 fell 0.08%. Volumes were fairly low.   G-7 macro:  The US economy is still refusing to roll over. August retail sales rose 0.6% MoM, much higher than the 0.1% expected. The control group growth rate was slower at 0.1%, but this was still more than had been expected. Markets are still not even 50% expecting another Fed rate hike. But you have to wonder how long they can keep this up after the recent upside inflation miss. US August PPI data also came in above expectations. It’s a quieter day today, except for US existing home sales and the University of Michigan consumer confidence figures.   China:  The data deluge kicks off at 09:20 this morning (HKT/SGT) with the 1Y medium-term lending facility rate, which given the PBoC’s struggles to support the CNY, and yesterday's RRR cut, seems likely to be left unchanged at 2.5%. New home prices come out at 09:30, and will likely show further month-on-month decline. Other property-related data today is unlikely to offer much sign of life. But at 10:00, the activity data emerges, and here, we think there may be some slightly less negative news. Recent export data and new CNY loan figures could indicate that production and retail sales numbers may increase slightly in year-on-year terms from last month. To be sure, we aren’t expecting them to look strong, but a positive direction of travel could provide some support for markets. We will know soon enough.     India:  August trade figures come out later this afternoon. The slide in exports has been fairly consistent, but we are now reaching a point where year-on-year declines may start to shrink from double digits to low single digits. That is also likely on the import side, and the trade deficit is likely to remain close to last month’s -USD20.67bn.   Indonesia:  Indonesia reports trade numbers today.  The market consensus suggests that we'll have another month of contraction for both exports and imports as global trade remains subdued.  The trade balance is forecast to settle in surplus but at a less substantial level of roughly $1.5bn.  Fading support from the trade surplus could be one reason for the IDR's struggles recently, and we could see the currency stay under pressure until we see this trend reversed.     What to look out for: China data deluge China medium term lending rate (15 September) Indonesia trade balance (15 September) China retail sales, industrial production (15 September) US University of Michigan sentiment and existing home sales (15 September)

The cryptocurrency market is well-known for its volatility, meaning that prices can experience substantial fluctuations in a short period. Given the significant unpredictability and inherent risks associated with the cryptocurrency market, insider advice can provide invaluable assistance to investors. Additionally, individuals who possess insider information may have access to early information regarding upcoming developments, partnerships, or regulatory changes that could impact the market. Individuals who have inside information often enjoy the benefit of having access to secret knowledge, industry expertise, and analytical tools. These resources are valuable in understanding market trends, essential project details, and potential investment opportunities. Utilizing their evaluations and recommendations can help investors navigate the complex and volatile world of cryptocurrency more effectively. This article explores the techniques insiders use to evaluate the market and the strategies they use to predict the next big cryptocurrency coin.  How Insiders Evaluate The Next Big Cryptocurrency Experts who have inside information use the following factors to identify which cryptocurrencies are likely to be profitable and have long-term growth. This method of analyzing the basics provides a detailed framework for assessing the true value and future potential of a cryptocurrency project. It's also helpful for determining the investment worth of the next big hitting cryptocurrency coin.   Technological Innovation  Analysts and investors, who have access to privileged information, will evaluate a cryptocurrency project based on its innovation and technical capabilities. They will examine its scalability, security features, and effectiveness in solving real-world issues. A crypto coin that uses advanced technology and groundbreaking solutions is expected to gain traction that might explode resulting in sustained success in the long run. Let’s say you are assessing a new cryptocurrency project for the Sponge V2 meme coin, for example. For instance, you would examine whether Sponge V2 brings in innovative technology, such as a distinct consensus mechanism or enhanced privacy features, that effectively resolves an issue that other cryptocurrencies have not addressed.  In the case of the Sponge V2 meme coin, it provides faster transaction speeds since it operates on the Polygon Blockchain network, which could attract individuals looking for faster payment alternatives. Team Expertise and Execution The skills and accomplishments of the development team can have a substantial impact on the success of a project. Insiders who are well-versed in the project's intricacies typically assess the team members' expertise, background, and previous achievements. A team that is both experienced and competent excels in overcoming challenges, materializing the project's vision, and delivering on its commitments.   Use Case and Utility Case and utility refers to evaluating the practicality and market value of the cryptocurrency project by studying its application in real-world scenarios. Experts assess whether the project addresses a genuine issue or fulfills a specific purpose and determine if it offers unique attributes or benefits compared to existing alternatives. A cryptocurrency that possesses a unique purpose and adds tangible value is expected to attract users and attain wider acceptance. Using the Sponge V2 as a prime example, the case and utility for this digital currency intends to improve the way the community interacts and participates. It distinguishes itself from other cryptocurrencies by prioritizing meme culture and community-led initiatives.   Market Demand and Performance Insiders will analyze the level of demand in the market and assess the project's performance metrics in order to determine its likelihood of success. These factors include: Market capitalization which represents the collective worth of all coins that are currently in circulation.  The trading volume which is the level of activity in trading.  Real-world adoption that refers to the practical usage of cryptocurrencies for transactions or other objectives. Pro tip: A cryptocurrency with high demand and positive performance indicators typically stands a better chance of achieving success in the market.   Trends and Predictions A market analysis based on the trends and predictions is conducted in the field to gain insight into the future direction of cryptocurrency projects. The assessment involves determining whether the project aligns with emerging trends in the cryptocurrency industry and its potential for sustained expansion. Right now, crypto experts are indicating that Sponge V2 meme coin holds promise for substantial success. The reason behind this is the rising enthusiasm for decentralized finance applications, and if Sponge V2 establishes itself as a prominent participant in this field, it could gain advantages from this expanding trend.  Additionally, analysts also forecast that the value of Sponge V2 meme coin will grow owing to its solid foundational principles and the dynamics of the market. All of these factors collectively contribute to the optimistic perspective regarding this particular cryptocurrency. 6 Effective Insider Strategies  Here are 7 pro tips to help you analyse the market and gain insight into the next big crypto coin: 1. Check the Total Supply and Circulation The value and potential growth of a cryptocurrency depend on its total supply and the amount currently being used. When the total supply is low and there is a reasonable circulation, it can result in scarcity. This scarcity can boost demand and cause the price to rise. If there is a high total supply and a large portion is already circulating, it may indicate less scarcity and affect the cryptocurrency's price movement. 2. Monitor the Price and Volume Monitoring the price and quantity of transactions provides valuable insights into market sentiment and investor involvement. When trading volume significantly increases and prices rise, it can indicate growing enthusiasm and a potential upward market trend. On the other hand, decreased trading volume or stable prices may suggest declining interest or a lack of buying pressure. 3. Pay Attention to Bitcoin Halving The Bitcoin halving event, happening in April 2024, reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created by half. Historically, Bitcoin halving has been associated with bull markets and significant price increases due to decreased supply and increased scarcity. By carefully reviewing the timing and impact of Bitcoin halvings, you can acquire valuable information about potential market trends and the beginning of a new phase of price escalation. 1. Regularly Review Market Analysis and Expert Insights In order to accurately predict the next prominent cryptocurrency, it is vital to conduct thorough research and analyze market trends. Gathering knowledge from experienced individuals and using strategies based on data is vital. Understanding the dynamics of the market, upcoming events, and technological advancements can assist investors in identifying promising opportunities and assessing the possible risks associated with various cryptocurrency ventures. 2. Follow Community and Social Media Closely Monitoring discussions on social media sites and online communities can provide valuable insights into future trends and potential investment opportunities. Engaging in conversations with the crypto community helps investors stay informed about emerging digital currencies, project developments, and market sentiment, allowing them to identify promising projects before they gain popularity among the general public. 3. Avoid Frequent Token Unlocks Projects that regularly release tokens, thereby making a significant number of tokens accessible for buying on the market, can diminish the cryptocurrency's worth and hinder its price. It is crucial for investors to be cautious when engaging with projects that have an excessive number of token unlocks, as this may significantly impact the cryptocurrency's long-term potential for growth. Conclusion Being able to predict the next major cryptocurrency coins requires a combination of informed analysis and a keen understanding of the market. Those who are knowledgeable in this area use various strategies to identify promising opportunities. However, it is important to understand the risks associated with investing in digital currencies and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.