trading opportunities

BTC/USD BTC/USD has been trading upside as I expected and I found the breakout of the well defined sideways range, which is good sign for the higher prices.   Due to the breakout of the well defined range and the upside trend on the mid and long term cycles, I see potetnial for the higher process after the downside correction.   Upside objectives are set at the price of $29.145 and $29.870 Stochastic oscillator is showing oversold condition and fresh bull cross, which is another sign for the upside movement.   Key support cluster is set at the price of $25.900    

Trend analysis. The market may move upward from the level of 1.0724 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.0758, the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may move downward with the target of 1.0737, the 61.8% pullback level (yellow dotted line).       Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - up; Fibonacci levels - up; Volumes - up; Candlestick analysis - up; Trend analysis - down; Bollinger bands - down; Weekly chart - up.     Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0724 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.0758, the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may move downward with the target of 1.0737, the 61.8% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Alternatively, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0724 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.0758, the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may continue to move upwards with the target of 1.0794, the 23.6% pullback level (red dotted line).  

USD/CAD has been trading downside and I found the breakout of the support cluster at the price of 1.3590, which is good sign for the further downside movement.   Due to the breakout of the support cluster and the increasing in the downside movement, I see potential for the further lower prices towards downside references.   Downside objectives are set at 1.3540 and 1.3490 MACD is showing increasing of the downside momentum, which is good sign for the further lower prices.... Key resistance is set at the price of 1.3650  

GBP/USD may start moving upward this week, starting from the level of 1.2344 (closing of the last weekly candle) to 1.2499, which is a historical resistance level (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this price, the pair will climb further to 1.2678, which is an upper fractal (red dashed line).   Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - upward Fibonacci levels - upward Volumes - upward Candlestick analysis - upward Trend analysis - downward Bollinger bands - upward Monthly chart - upward       All these point to an upward movement in GBP/USD. Conclusion: Most likely, the pair will have a bullish trend, with no first lower shadow on the weekly white candle (Monday - upward) and a second upper shadow (Friday - downward).   So during the week, pound will rise from 1.2344 (closing of the last weekly candle) to the historical resistance level at 1.2499 (blue dashed line), and then head to the upper fractal at 1.2678 (red dashed line).   Alternatively, the quote could go up from 1.2344 (closing of last week's candle) to the historical resistance level at 1.2499 (blue dashed line), and then turn around and fall down to the 38.2% retracement level at 1.2342 (red dashed line).  

NZDJPY resistance at 8555/75. Shorts need stops above 8590.  Targets: 8520, 8480.      CADJPY continues higher as expected but I have not managed to get us in to a long. I should have had us buying on a break above 102.90 so I will use this as a support today. Longs at 102.90/70, stop below 102.50.          EURJPY we unfortunately missed buying at first support at 149.75-65 by only 3 pips.  GBPCAD stuck in a 2 week range but longs at support at 167.60/40 worked last week on the bounce to my target of 168.55. Try longs again at support at 167.60/40 - stop below 167.10.   Targets: 168.20, 168.55, 168.80.Resistance at 1.6880/1.6900. Shorts need stops above 1.6920. Targets: 1.6845, 1.6820.    EURUSD collapsed as predicted on Sunday last week & finally hit my target & Fibonacci support at Fibonacci 1.0730/20, although we over ran to 1.0700. On Friday as predicted we did recover a little to my first target of target  1.0750/60 with a high for the day exactly here.  No buy signal yet but a break above 1.0750/60 tests strong resistance at 1.0790/1.0810. I would try a short here with stop above 1.0830. Longs at 1.0730/10 could be risky but if you try, stop below 1.0695.  A break below 1.0695 this week should be a sell signal & can target 1.0630, then 1.0600, perhaps as far as 1.0570.       GBPUSD bounced from just above good support at 1.2290/80 in severely oversold conditions which was as expected. The pair beat minor resistance at 1.2360/70 but a short position at 1.2390/1.2400 worked perfectly with a high for the day exactly here & a nice tumble to my targets of 1.2340 & 1.2320. A low for the day exactly here in fact.  Could hardly have been more accurate on the levels for GBPUSD last week. Again shorts at 1.2390/1.2400 should stop loss above 1.2420. Targets: 1.2340 & 1.2320. I am not going to suggest a long as I think there is a good chance we will continue lower this week. Watch for a break below the 100 day moving average at 1.2290/80 to trigger further losses despite severely oversold conditions.

Europe set for a mixed open, as debt ceiling deal heads towards a vote. By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK) With both the US and UK markets closed yesterday, there was a rather tepid response to the weekend news that the White House and Republican leaders had agreed a deal to raise the debt ceiling, as European markets finished a quiet session slightly lower. The deal, which lays out a plan to suspend the debt ceiling beyond the date of the next US election until January 1st 2025, will now need to get agreement from lawmakers on both sides of the political divide to pass into law. That could well be the hardest part given that on the margins every vote is needed which means partisan interests on either side could well derail or delay a positive outcome. A vote on the deal could come as soon as tomorrow with a new deadline of 5th June cited by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. US markets, which had been rising into the weekend on the premise that a deal was in the making look set to open higher when they open later today, however markets in Europe appear to be less than enthused. That's probably due to concerns over how the economic recovery in China is doing, with recent economic data suggesting that confidence there is slowing, and economic activity is declining. Nonetheless while European stocks have struggled in recent weeks, they are still within touching distance of their recent record highs, although recent increases in yields and persistent inflation are starting to act as a drag. This is likely to be the next major concern for investors in the event we get a speedy resolution to the US debt ceiling headwind. We've already seen the US dollar gain ground over the last 3 weeks as markets start to price in another rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month, and more importantly start to price out the prospect of rate cuts this year. Last week's US and UK economic data both pointed to an inflationary outlook that is much stickier than was being priced a few weeks ago, with core prices showing little sign of slowing. In the UK core prices surged to a 33 year high of 6.8% while US core PCE edged up to 4.7% in April, meaning pushing back any possible thoughts that we might see rate cuts as soon as Q3. At this rate we'll be lucky to see rate cuts much before the middle of 2024, with the focus now set to shift to this week's US May jobs report on Friday, although we also have a host of other labour market and services data between now and then to chew over. The last few weeks have seen quite a shift, from the certainty that the Federal Reserve was almost done when it comes to rate hikes to the prospect that we may well see a few more unless inflation starts to exhibit signs of slowing markedly in the coming months. In the EU we are also seeing similar trends when it comes to sticky inflation with tomorrow's flash CPI numbers for May expected to show some signs of slowing on the headline number, but not so much on the core measure. On the data front today we have the latest US consumer confidence numbers for May which are expected to see a modest slowdown from 101.30 in April to 99, and the lowest levels since July last year. EUR/USD – has so far managed to hold above the 1.0700 level, with a break below arguing to a move back towards 1.0610. We need to see a rebound above 1.0820 to stabilise. GBP/USD – holding above the 1.2300 area for now with further support at the April lows at 1.2270. We need to recover back above 1.2380 to stabilise. EUR/GBP – currently struggling to move above the 0.8720 area, with main resistance at the 0.870 area. A move below current support at 0.8650 could see a move towards 0.8620. USD/JPY – having broken above the 139.60 area this now becomes support for a move towards 142.50 which is the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the recent highs at 151.95 and lows at 127.20. Further support remains back at the 137.00 area and 200-day SMA. FTSE100 is expected to open unchanged at 7,627 DAX is expected to open 17 points higher at 15,967 CAC40 is expected to open 30 points lower at 7,273

  Gold shorts certainly worked perfectly on Friday with a $19 drop from the high of the day. Longs at strong support at 1938/34 worked perfectly yesterday as we held above 1930. We wrote: ''Gold remains oversold on the daily chart so a good chance of another bounce from this strong support at 1938/34 to target 1945/47, perhaps as far as first resistance at 1952/57. Take profits on any remaining longs here if you do manage to buy at 1938/34.''   An easy profit of up to 15 points on our longs. However shorts here were stopped above 1960. Note the bullish engulfing candle after we bounced from the 100 day moving average in severely oversold conditions.   Strong resistance at 1963/66 today. Shorts need stops above 1971. A break higher see 1966/63 act as strong support so try to reverse & buy in to a long with stop below 1960, targeting 1975, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 1984/88 for profit taking. Try shorts with stop above 1992.   Silver longs at my buying opportunity at the 38.2% Fibonacci, 100 week & 500 day moving average support at 2280/65 worked perfectly on Friday, after I gave the signal on Thursday, so there was no excuse for missing this trade!   Targets for our longs of 2315 & 2330 were both hit to add to our profits for the week.   I expect strong resistance at 2340/50 again today. Shorts need stops above 2365.   We can try longs again this week at 2280/65 with stops below 2250. However a break below 2250 would be an important longer term sell signal. First target would be 2200/2190.

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD The price test of 1.0719, coinciding with the significant rise of the MACD line from zero, limited the upward potential of the pair. Even so, market players continue to buy in anticipation of further interest rate hikes despite inflation in the eurozone starting to slow down. Clearly, market players do not expect any changes in the European Central Bank's monetary policy.     The empty economic calendar today will push traders to focus on upcoming US labor market data, as growth in unemployment and disappointing non-farm payrolls will convince the Fed to continue its tight approach to monetary policy. Only a pause in the rate hike cycle will weaken dollar demand and lead to a further rise in EUR/USD.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0780 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0816. Growth could occur. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0754, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0780 and 1.0816.   For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0754 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0722. Pressure may return amid very good labor market statistics in the US. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0780, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0754 and 1.0722.       What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  

GBP/USD Yesterday, the British pound grew (by 0.47% compared to a 0.20% decline in the dollar index) and its upper shadow managed to reach the target level of 1.2443. As the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has already approached the boundary of the growth area, it may start to reverse downwards in the direction of the main trend.   If the reversal occurs and the price establishes itself below the MACD line (1.2400), the first target will be 1.2273 (the April 3 low and the high of February 14). If the price stays above 1.2443, it can rise towards 1.2583. However, the pound may not reach this level, and a reversal could occur from any intermediate resistance.       On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has shown slight growth in the growth area but is now showing initial signs of a downward reversal.   Since the MACD line is located below the 1.2400 level, overcoming the support level (1.2365) will serve as the final condition for the price to reverse into a medium-term decline.  

The XAU/USD chart shows a bearish momentum within a descending channel, indicating a predominant downward trend.       here is potential for a bearish reaction at the first resistance level of 1966.26, leading to a price reversal towards the first support level at 1933.95. Additional support is observed at 1914.16, offering significant buying opportunities. The resistance levels at 1966.26 and 1980.08 present obstacles for upward movement. Monitoring these levels can provide valuable insights for trading opportunities in the XAU/USD market.  

In the ever-changing landscape of the global economy, staying informed about the latest developments in individual countries is crucial for understanding the factors driving currency movements. In this article, we turn our attention to the Norwegian economy and delve into the implications of the recent data releases and central bank actions, as we engage in a conversation with Michael Stark, an expert from Exness. The recent data from Norway has shown remarkable strength, providing insights into the actions taken by the Norges Bank, the country's central bank. The Norges Bank surprised the markets by opting for a double interest rate hike last month, deviating from the expected single hike. This decision is rooted in the robust economic indicators witnessed in the country. The June job report, for instance, revealed an unemployment rate of 1.7%, slightly below the consensus and approaching the pre-recession lows of early 2008. Such positive labor market conditions bode well for the overall economic health of Norway.   Michael Stark, Exness: Overall, recent data from Norway have been quite strong, which is part of the reason the Norges Bank called for a double hike last month instead of a single as expected. June’s job report showed 1.7% unemployment, slightly lower than the consensus and very close to the pre-recession low in early 2008.   Industrial production in Norway has been dropping consistently for some months now, but this isn’t necessarily a major factor for the Norwegian krone which usually trades cyclically and has some correlation to crude oil. Inflation doesn’t display a clear downtrend yet, actually rising to 6.7% in May for the annual non-core figure, so the Norges Bank might continue to hike while major central banks are mostly at least slowing down.   Finding a good opportunity to trade USDNOK or EURNOK in high summer would usually be a very challenging exercise. These pairs already have among the lowest volume for minors on average, and combined with seasonality the likelihood of false signals is greater. Over the last several years, USDNOK has generally retraced or corrected against the main trend during summer, so given the fundamental situation it might be possible to see that happen again and the price test support around 10.20 kr, but that depends on 10 July’s Norwegian inflation and the Fed’s meeting on 26 July.   

Horizontal trends, often referred to as consolidation, describe a stable market situation where prices neither exhibit a clear upward nor downward trend. This article delves into the significance of horizontal trends, exploring their characteristics and implications for traders. Recognizing Sideways Trends Consolidation, characterized by a balance between price peaks and troughs, differs in investment strategy from both downward and upward trends. Thus, understanding how to identify horizontal trends becomes crucial for traders. Key Elements of Sideways Trends Horizontal trends, also known as sideways or ranging trends, have distinctive features clearly visible on price charts. The longevity of prices staying in such a pattern makes recognizing this trend crucial for traders. Identifying Horizontal Trends To identify a horizontal trend, historical data spanning two to three weeks is necessary. This allows the identification of at least two maximum and two minimum values of the currency pair's price. If these points are at or near the same level, a sideways trend is assumed. Confirmation occurs when a subsequent peak or trough appears within the previously identified range. Strength of the Trend The strength of a horizontal trend is determined by two factors: the number of peaks/troughs within the range and the significant distance between them. A robust trend is indicated by numerous maximum or minimum points, along with substantial time intervals between peak and trough values. Occurrence of Consolidation Sideways trends commonly occur in two scenarios. Firstly, as a short-term pause within either an upward or downward trend. Secondly, it can manifest as an extended transitional phase between an upward and downward trend, signaling a potential change in price direction. Potential Outcomes of Sideways Trends The future course of a sideways trend depends on price behavior. Stability prevails when prices do not surpass support or resistance lines. The emergence of a higher peak or lower trough likely signals the beginning of a bullish or bearish market, depending on the direction of change. Strategies During Sideways Trends Consider various scenarios based on breakout direction and your market position. In an upward breakout, indicating a trend change, consider buying if you don't have an open position. If a downward breakout occurs during consolidation, signaling a price decline below the line, decide to sell if you have open positions. If a price drop is observed, it could signify the start or continuation of a downward trend, prompting caution or staying out of the market if you haven't initiated positions. Navigating sideways trends requires a keen understanding of consolidation patterns. Traders must recognize the signs, interpret price movements, and make informed decisions during horizontal market phases to enhance their success in Forex trading.