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USD continues to weaken on hopes of further stimulus

USD continues to weaken on hopes of further stimulus

John Benjamin John Benjamin 02.12.2020 10:36
Euro Rises To The Highest Levels Since 2018The euro currency is posting strong gains, rising over one percent on the day. The gains largely on the back of a weakening US dollar.Earlier on Monday, the euro gave back the gains after testing the 1.2000 level. However, this decline saw prices retesting the trend line for support.A rebound from this trend line saw price action breaking past this previous resistance level.At the time of writing, the EURUSD currency pair is trading above the 1.2000 level.The Stochastics oscillator is however posting a lower high. This could signal a possible correction in the near term.The lower price level of 1.1900 is likely to act as support during this retracement.GBPUSD Attempts To Break The Trend LineThe British pound sterling is posting strong gains on the back of a weaker dollar. After price action consolidated above the 1.3300 level, the cable is attempting to push higher.For the moment, prices are stuck near the trend line. As long as the trend line holds as resistance, we could see the sideways consolidation to continue.However, in the event of a breakout off the trend line, then the GBPUSD will be aiming for the 1.3500 level next.For the moment, with the support level firmly established at 1.3300, the GBPUSD will be looking to make further gains to the upside.WTI Crude Oil Losing The 45.00 HandleOil prices are trading weaker on Tuesday. The declines come despite the US dollar taking a strong hit.The move to the downside comes after oil prices failed to make any big moves to the upside.As a result, WTI crude oil was consolidating around the 45.00 level for a considerable period of time.After losing this handle, oil prices are likely to push lower. The next key support is near the 43.50 level.However, we expect the pullback to see prices retracing the 45.00 handle.If resistance is firmly established here, then we could expect to see further declines down to the 43.50 level.Gold Prices Get A Boost From Weaker USDThe precious metal has been posting strong gains on the back of the US dollar. Gold prices are up nearly 2% intraday on Tuesday.The rebound also coincides with the impending correction in gold, as mentioned a day before. For the moment, we expect prices to retrace to the 1817.80 level.If this level holds, then gold prices could establish resistance. This will in turn renew the downside bias in the precious metal.The 1800 level once again comes into the picture, with the potential for gold to post further losses.
USD remains soft as US stimulus talks drag on

USD remains soft as US stimulus talks drag on

John Benjamin John Benjamin 08.12.2020 09:09
EURUSD Pulls Back Off Recent HighsThe euro currency was trading soft on Monday with price action closing nearly flat.This comes as the euro continues to post a modest descent after briefly testing above 1.2170 last Friday.For the moment, a local swing low has formed near 1.2080. As long as this low holds, we could see price action resuming the uptrend.However, a close below this low and a potential retracement back to this level could confirm the downside.The key support area is likely to come from the dynamic support of the trend line. This is likely to coincide near the 1.2000 level in the near term.GBPUSD Drops As Brexit Trade Concerns MountThe British pound sterling was trading rocky on Monday as prices were in a steady decline since morning.This comes as the UK and the EU continue with the post-Brexit trade talks which have failed. The GBPUSD fell, as a result, briefly slipping below the 1.3300 level of support.However, price recovered off the lows before managing to close above this level once again.For the moment, it seems like the 1.3300 level will hold out as support. But if price breaches this level, then we could expect further declines.The Stochastics oscillator is currently nearing the oversold levels, which could suggest a possible retracement in the near term.WTI Crude Oil Gives Back GainsOil prices are trading weaker, down about 0.18% on the day. The declines come after oil price posted steady gains into last Friday’s close.However, price action is pulling back after testing new highs of above 46.50. The declines could see price stalling near the 45.26 level of support.As long as this support holds, we could expect the upside to resume. Oil prices will need to break past the previous highs to confirm the continuation to the upside.However, failure to post new highs could signal a move lower.A close below 45.26 could potentially expose oil prices to test the support level of 43.50 next.Gold Prices Rise 1%, Breaking Past 1850The precious metal is posting a strong recovery as price action zoomed past the 1850 handle.The gains come after gold prices managed to settle comfortably above the key price level of 1818.80.With the 1850 level giving way to further gains, gold prices could continue higher.The next key level of interest is the 1911.50. But prices could likely test this level if there is some support forming near the current levels.This could mean that gold prices might retrace back to the 1817.80 or the 1850 levels.
USD rises slightly off the two- and half-year lows

USD rises slightly off the two- and half-year lows

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 09.12.2020 16:00
Euro Drops As ECB Meeting LoomsThe euro currency’s declines accelerated on Wednesday. The common currency is trading below the 1.2100 level which it held over the past few days.The declines come as the ECB will be holding its monetary policy meeting. Speculation is high that the central bank will increase its bond purchases.The current declines could stall near the dynamic support off the rising trend line. This could see a confluence of the 1.2000 level holding up for the moment.However, if the 1.2000 level breaks, then the next key support to look for will be the 1.1900 level.To the upside, price action could stall near 1.2100.GBPUSD Volatile Within A Flat RangeThe British pound sterling is giving back the gains made earlier. The volatility stems as Brexit negotiations drag on with no clear plan yet.The GBPUSD is currently settled within 1.3483 and 1.3300 levels. While the lower end of the range was briefly tested earlier this week, it has held up.The current pace of declines could see the 1.3300 support level coming under pressure once again.If the cable loses this support, then we could expect to see further declines.The next key support level is near 1.3122.Crude Oil Falls Back To 45.50 SupportOil prices continue to trade weak above the 45.50 level. Prices fell once again on Wednesday, testing the 45.50 level of support.So far, no new highs have formed. This consolidation could lead to a potential correction if support gives way.Below the 45.50, the next key support area is seen at the 43.50 level. We could expect this support level to hold in the near term.It would also mean that oil prices could continue trading flat within the newly established range below the 45.50 level.The Stochastics oscillator is also signalling a move lower. This could possibly confirm the downside bias for the moment.Gold Edges Down To 1850 SupportThe precious metal is seen retesting the support level of 1850 once again.This comes as prices barely rose close to the 1880 level before giving back the gains. The market sentiment remains mixed leading to the rather flat price action for the moment.However, the 1850 level will be critical. If gold prices lose this handle, then we could expect further declines to the 1800 level once again.This would come as gold prices will likely test the 1817.80 level to the downside.
USD rebounds on vaccine and stimulus hopes

USD rebounds on vaccine and stimulus hopes

John Benjamin John Benjamin 10.12.2020 09:40
Euro Drops As ECB Meeting LoomsThe euro currency’s declines accelerated on Wednesday. The common currency is trading below the 1.2100 level which it held over the past few days.The declines come as the ECB will be holding its monetary policy meeting. Speculation is high that the central bank will increase its bond purchases.The current declines could stall near the dynamic support off the rising trend line. This could see a confluence of the 1.2000 level holding up for the moment.However, if the 1.2000 level breaks, then the next key support to look for will be the 1.1900 level.To the upside, price action could stall near 1.2100.GBPUSD Volatile Within A Flat RangeThe British pound sterling is giving back the gains made earlier. The volatility stems as Brexit negotiations drag on with no clear plan yet.The GBPUSD is currently settled within 1.3483 and 1.3300 levels. While the lower end of the range was briefly tested earlier this week, it has held up.The current pace of declines could see the 1.3300 support level coming under pressure once again.If the cable loses this support, then we could expect to see further declines.The next key support level is near 1.3122.Crude Oil Falls Back To 45.50 SupportOil prices continue to trade weak above the 45.50 level. Prices fell once again on Wednesday, testing the 45.50 level of support.So far, no new highs have formed. This consolidation could lead to a potential correction if support gives way.Below the 45.50, the next key support area is seen at the 43.50 level. We could expect this support level to hold in the near term.It would also mean that oil prices could continue trading flat within the newly established range below the 45.50 level.The Stochastics oscillator is also signalling a move lower. This could possibly confirm the downside bias for the moment.Gold Edges Down To 1850 SupportThe precious metal is seen retesting the support level of 1850 once again.This comes as prices barely rose close to the 1880 level before giving back the gains. The market sentiment remains mixed leading to the rather flat price action for the moment.However, the 1850 level will be critical. If gold prices lose this handle, then we could expect further declines to the 1800 level once again.This would come as gold prices will likely test the 1817.80 level to the downside.
Tech Leads Market Declines on a Down Wednesday

Tech Leads Market Declines on a Down Wednesday

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.12.2020 17:22
After the market rose to intraday highs on Wednesday (Dec 9), the indices pulled back and closed in the red - largely led by the tech sector.News RecapThe Dow closed 105 points lower for a loss of 0.35%, the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.9% for its worst day since Oct. 30. The tech-heavy index also snapped a four-day winning streak. The small-cap Russell 2000 also fell by 0.82%.Wednesday was a resumption of the rotation out of tech that we saw in early November. Tech led the declines, and in particular, chip stocks such as Lam Research (LRCX) which fell by nearly 3.5%.Other big 2020 winners fell sharply on Wednesday as well such as Tesla (TSLA) which fell nearly 7% and Netflix (NFLX) which fell 3.72%.Stocks reversed downwards after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told Politico that Republicans and Democrats were “still looking for a way forward” on stimulus negotiations.COVID-19 continues to worsen in the U.S, but Tuesday’s rollout of Pfizer’s vaccine in the U.K., has spurred optimism. However, there are some concerns about people with a history of allergic reactions receiving the vaccine.Meanwhile, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may be just days away from approving Pfizer’s vaccine.COVID-19 continues surging to uncontrolled and grim levels. For the first time since the start of the pandemic, the U.S. hit 3,000 deaths in one day.We may have reached a crossroads in the market between mixed short-term sentiment, and mid-term and long-term optimism. In the short-term, there will be some optimistic days where investors rotate into cyclicals and value stocks, and pessimistic days where investors rotate into tech and “stay-at-home” names. On other days, such as Wednesday, the markets may broadly decline, and be led by specific sectors. On Wednesday, for example, the leading laggard was tech - specifically high flying chip stocks.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening, such as small-caps, should thrive.According to Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, “Renewed lockdown restrictions in response to the third wave of the pandemic are likely to weigh on the economy in coming months, but we don’t expect a double-dip…(but) the economy could be booming next spring if enough of us are inoculated against the virus.”Other Wall Street strategists are bullish on 2021 as well. According to a JPMorgan note to clients released on Wednesday, a widely available vaccine will lift stocks to new highs in 2021.“Equities are facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains next year,” JPMorgan said. “We expect markets to be driven by recovery from the COVID-19 crisis at the back of highly effective vaccines and continued extraordinary monetary and fiscal support.”JPMorgan’s S&P 500 target for 2021 is 4,400. This implies a nearly 20% gain from Wednesday’s closing price.On the other hand, for the rest of 2020, and maybe early on into 2021, markets will wrestle with the negative reality on the ground and optimism for an economic rebound.Additionally, since election week, the rally has invoked concerns of overheating with bad fundamentals. Commerce Street Capital CEO, Dory Wiley, advised caution in this overheated market. He pointed to 90% of stocks on the NYSE trading above their 200-day moving average as an indication that valuations might be stretched.“Timing the market is not always well-advised and paring back can miss out on some gains the next two months, but after such good returns in clearly a terrible fundamentals year, I think taking some profits and moving to cash, not bonds, makes some sense here,” he said.Amidst the current fears of a stall in economic recovery with further COVID-19-related shutdowns and no stimulus, it is very possible that short-term downside persists. However, if a stimulus deal passes before the end of the year, it could mean more market gains.Due to this tug of war between sentiments, it is truly hard to say with conviction that another crash or bear market will come. If anything, the mixed sentiment will keep markets relatively sideways.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen. Can the Dow Stay Above 30,000?Since piercing the 30,000 level for a second time last Friday, and reaching record highs, the Dow Jones has largely traded sideways and hovered around the 30,000 level. There are some questions in the short-term as to whether or not the Dow can maintain this level. Outside of the Russell 2000, the Dow may be the index most vulnerable to news and sentiment.Volume has also quietly declined this week as well, which poses doubts on how sustainable the 30,000 level is. Low volume, especially a declining trend in volume, means that there are fewer shares trading. Lower volume also means less liquidity across the index, and an increase in stock price volatility.With so much uncertainty and the RSI still firmly in hold territory, the call on the Dow stays a HOLD.On pessimistic “sell the news” kinds of days, the Dow may have more downside pressure than other indices. Many cyclical stocks that depend on a strong economic recovery trade on this index, and any change in sentiment can adversely affect their performances.It is hard to say with certainty that a drop in the index will be strong and sharp relative to the gains since March - let alone November. But for now, as seen in the last week, I believe that we could be in a sideways holding pattern while investors digest all the news being thrown at them on a daily basis. For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the Dow, the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is a strong option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

US dollar unmoved as euro brushes aside ECB stimulus

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.12.2020 09:03
Euro Firms Up After ECB MeetingThe euro currency regains its bullish momentum on the day. The gains came after the common currency posted declines for four consecutive days.This led prices to fall and test the trend line which offered dynamic support. Following this, the euro made a quick rebound and is attempting to rise higher.For the moment, price action will need to challenge the previous lows near 1.2150.If the euro can break past this level, then we expect to see new highs forming.However, if the common currency reverses near this level we expect a possible correction down to the 1.1900 level.GBPUSD To Remain Volatile Into Sunday Brexit MeetingThe GBPUSD currency pair continues to trade volatile, in reaction to the Brexit trade talks.Both the EU and the UK have until Sunday to finalize the deals. We expect the GBPUSD will therefore continue trading mixed into the weekend.For the moment, consolidation is taking place near the 1.3300 level of support.If price action closes firmly below this level, then further downside is possible. The bias remains completely mixed at this point.To the upside, GBPUSD will need to retest the 1.348 – 1-3500 level. Only a strong close above this level could confirm further gains.WTI Crude Oil Attempts To Log New HighsOil prices are trading bullish following days of consolidation near the 45.00 level.The gains are driven by news about two oilfields in Iraq under attack.For the moment, with the support level at 45.00 being establishing oil prices have room to rise.Furthermore, the next key challenge will be the psychologically important 50.00 level. However, the rise to this level is likely to be gradual.Oil prices will need to establish support near the upper levels to continue maintaining the bullish momentum.Gold Prices Continue To Remain Trading FlatThe precious metal did not react much to the news of the ECB’s stimulus expansion. As a result, gold prices remain fairly settled above the 1850 levels for the moment.As long as this support holds, we can expect price action to trade flat.To the upside, gains will be very likely capped near the 1900 -1911 levels.To the downside, if the support level gives way, then gold prices could be looking at steeper declines.Prices will likely fall back to the next key support area near 1817.80.
Stocks Close Mixed Amid Poor Jobless Data, COVID-19 Fears, and Stimulus Doubts

Stocks Close Mixed Amid Poor Jobless Data, COVID-19 Fears, and Stimulus Doubts

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.12.2020 16:27
Stocks closed mixed on Thursday (Dec. 10) after a new report showed that new jobless claims resurged to their worst level in months, while COVID-19 cases climbed to record numbers, and stimulus gridlock continues.News RecapThe Dow Jones fell 69.55 or .23%, the S&P 500 fell 0.13%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.54%.For the week ended Dec. 5th, 853,000 new jobless claims were reported. This is the worst level since September, the first increase in 4 weeks, and well above the market estimates of 725,000.A U.S. FDA advisory panel voted 17 to 4 to approve Pfizer’s vaccine for emergency use. The full FDA approval could grant emergency use authorization of Pfizer’s vaccine as early as Friday.Stimulus talks continued to slog forward . While lawmakers plan to pass a one-week government funding extension through to Dec. 18, to buy more time to craft a stimulus deal before year’s end, there are still significant hurdles to cross. Democrats and Republicans apparently have found consensus in some areas such as PPP loans, but issues including state and local aid, liability protections, unemployment assistance and stimulus checks are still dividing Congress.After DoorDash (DASH) IPO’d on Tuesday, and surged, AirBnB (ABNB) followed suit and closed nearly 113% higher on Thursday.This has been the most lethal week yet for COVID-19 in the U.S. Thursday saw a record 229,000+ cases and over 3,100 deaths. The worst may not be over yet either. According to the CDC Director Robert Redfield, US COVID-19 deaths are likely to exceed the 9/11 death toll for the next 60 days.There is simply too much short-term uncertainty right now to predict what the next 1-3 months will be like. In the short-term, there will be optimistic days where investors rotate into cyclicals and value stocks, and pessimistic days where there will be a broad sell-off or rotation into “stay-at-home” names. Thursday’s session, for example, was a reflection of pessimistic sentiment, and a rotation back into tech. Other days, such as Wednesday (Dec. 9), tech may sharply sell-off and lead the declines.In the mid-term and long-term, however, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will likely stabilize, while optimism and relief will permeate the markets. The FDA advisory committee’s approval of Pfizer’s vaccine for emergency usage is certainly a step in the right direction. We could be just days away from vaccinations finally happening in America. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening such as small-caps should thrive.Markets will continue to wrestle with the negative reality on the ground and optimism for a 2021 economic reopening. This is simply the lay of the land nowadays. More positive vaccine news seemingly trickles in by the day despite increasingly horrifying COVID-19 numbers, economic news, and political news.Because of how much the markets have heated the last 6-7 weeks, a correction could be a welcome sign. While short-term downside pressure could certainly persist based on days where bad news outweighs good news, due to this “tug of war” between sentiments, any subsequent move downwards would likely be modest in comparison to the gains since the bottom in March and since the U.S. election at the start of November. The vaccine is simply the “injection” that the markets need right now. It is truly hard to say with conviction that another crash or bear market will come. If anything, the mixed sentiment could keep markets trading relatively sideways.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of one “driver” and one “diver” sector. Do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! Always happy to hear from you. DrivingMaterials (XLB) The materials sector, as represented by the XLB ETF (shown above) , has been one of the largest beneficiaries of the vaccine rally. Vaccine news briefly sent the XLB ETF to its 2020 high in November. However, since then, the ETF has traded relatively sideways, and has slightly declined this week.Cyclical sectors such as materials are set to be the biggest winners from an economic reopening in 2021. However, ever since peaking at $72.41 a share, the ETF’s volume has plummeted and stayed low. There are not enough strong fundamentals to justify calling this sector a BUY at this time.I do like this ETF’s modest decline on Thursday (Dec. 10), and generally this week. But for me, it is not a large enough pullback for a convincing buy. I believe that the sector could pull back further or stay in a sideways pattern for the rest of the month. For the materials ETF to come back, exceed its 52-week high, and pierce that $72 resistance level, a stimulus package MUST pass ASAP, and a COVID-19 vaccine must be efficiently rolled out and scalable. If this happens and a near-term economic slowdown can be somewhat averted, then materials could benefit. But for now, my view is muddled.For the time being, there is too much uncertainty to make a conviction call. Therefore, this is a HOLD for the short-term. However, I am considerably more bullish on materials in the long-term. DivingUS Dollar ($USD)Although the U.S. Dollar somewhat recovered earlier in the week and pierced the 91 level, it plunge again on Thursday. I have been calling this dollar weakness for weeks despite the low level and expect the decline to continue.The world’s reserve currency is still hovering around its 2-year low and has plunged in excess of 12% since March. After briefly rising above an oversold RSI of 30, it has also returned right back towards that level. The dollar is also significantly trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while emerging market indices and currencies continue to grossly outperform this perceived safe asset.Further illustrating the dollar’s decline has been its performance relative to emerging markets. Just compare the performance of the iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM) relative to the Invesco DB USD IDX Bullish ETF (UUP) since January. The difference continues to widen too.Many believe that the dollar could fall further as well due to a multitude of headwinds.If the world returns to relative normalcy within the next year, investors may be more “risk-on” and less “risk-off.” Which means that the dollar’s value will decline further.Additionally, because of all of the economic stimulus combined with record low-interest rates, the dollar’s value has declined and could have more room to fall. Do not forget that the Fed plans on holding interest rates this low for at least another two years. For the dollar’s value, rates remaining this low for two years is an eternity.As the world’s reserve currency, this plunge in value is concerning both in the short-term and mid-term for the US economy. A declining dollar means the strengthening of other foreign currencies- and this has already been happening. For example, the Australian dollar has now officially hit its highest level in 2 ½ years against the U.S. dollar . This may not be the end either.While the dollar may have more room to fall, this MAY be a good opportunity to buy the world’s reserve currency at a discount. The RSI at nearly 30 reflects this. But I just have too many doubts on the effect of interest rates this low, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation to be remotely bullish on the dollar’s prospects over the next 1-3 years.For now, where possible, HEDGE OR SELL USD exposure.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
The Silver Permabull

The Silver Permabull

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 11.12.2020 11:08
As experienced traders, you rarely want to take an extreme position. Being biased isn’t useful for objective chart analysis. Many dare to do that anyhow since no one remembers you making a bad call 15 years ago, but if you were right you can quote: “I told you so”. The other side of the coin is that trend needs to be identified early and then played just right since there is no grander edge than directional momentum. The Silver Permabull. We aren’t after fame and glory. Midas Touch provides data as accurately as possible supporting good wealth preservation and wealth creation. We provided many principles and data about Silver over the last two years to shed light on a possible bull run in Silver. It was spot on to advise entries in March when Silver was trading still at US$12.00. We also provided readers with quite a few more low-risk entries. These to build a long term position with remainder runners (see our quad exit strategy) for the long term hold. Silver, Weekly Chart, The second leg: Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of December 10th, 2020 Now that we have the first successful leg with substantial profit-taking completed, we find a high likelihood for continuation into a possible second leg. After a sideways zone from September this year we see a progression from the lows of this sideways channel through its range. After that a possible initiation through a breakout of its upper bounds into a second leg. Our projections are extremely conservative since typically second legs are the longest legs and as such a doubling in price from here is more than likely.     Silver, Daily Chart, May be like this: Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of December 11th, 2020 It isn’t quite clear how the painted scenario of much higher prices will unfold from a small time frame perspective. We drew the most likely scenario above on the daily chart. This, that or the other entries will be posted in our free Telegram channel in real-time. The emphasis here is on the general probability. It points from a seasonality perspective to typically higher prices in December and January for this commodity. Typical year end hiccups especially this year can not distract the professional from the larger picture. Silver, Monthly Chart, Where are we heading? Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of December 11th, 2020 Where thinking in extremes starts making sense is in not limiting projections, if reasonable substantiated factors speak for extended moves. These can have beyond the typical three-legged extensions a fourth and a fifth leg as well. Here it is important to add to technical tools fundamental analysis. Why extremes in this one rare instance are useful is that exits are way more meaningful than entries. Realistic target assessment is the key factor of profitability. One fundamental fact about Silver easily overlooked is its rarity in comparison versus other precious metals in terms of “loss”. What we mean by “loss” is that in terms of weight there is about twice as much mined Silver in bullion in the world than Gold. But the rate of “loss” due to industrial use is much grander than Golds. From over fifty billion troy ounces ever mined, less than five billion remain. It is important to keep that in mind when comparing the estimate of about forty times Silver in weight being still unmined in comparison to Gold. In short, due to the high industrial demand for Silver and its high “loss” rate (it is hard to recycle), it qualifies from a long-term view as a permabull´s friend. It is this “loss” rate that can make it more and more precious over time. Silver the permabull You can call it what you like. What it comes down to is taking low-risk trades. If you can do so in the direction of a trend, even better. After Silver broke a multiyear sideways range to the upside a new long-term phase for Silver has been confirmed. With a trend on your side in alignment with fundamentals that are substantially supporting especially physical Silver long-term holds, you can not only preserve your wealth but also expand your wealth too. An opportunity that arises rarely and might be suitable for a permabull. We post real time entries and exits for the silver market in our free Telegram channel. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Korbinian Koller|December 11th, 2020|Tags: low risk, Silver, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments
Bitcoin riches through a routine

Bitcoin riches through a routine

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 09.12.2020 19:24
For some, the hair stands up when they hear the word “routine”. For market participants, it is one of the best ways to stop losing money. How often have you violated your best intentions? “I will never run a stop again”. “I will be patiently waiting for my target and not exit too early”. “Why did I not wait for my entry signal and not…”. The list is long and still, you feel like Sisyphus despite best intentions violating your own rules over and over and over again. Why? Bitcoin riches through a routine. The reason being that under stress is that we resort to our unconscious mind where we run programmed patterns. The subconscious being stronger than our motivations will always win. The only chance one has is to reprogram these patterns and that is best done by a daily routine that repeats as often as it takes to overpower the old subconscious unuseful programming. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Holding on to long positions: BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of December 7th, 2020 Looking at the weekly chart, anybody exited their trades early, must with agony look back asking “why didn’t I just ride the trend”. This agony will continue if a better routine isn’t implemented. We developed a quad exit strategy that supports better exit management from a psychological perspective. With prices quintupling since March this year, we currently do not see low-risk entry points. We also do not find ourselves forced just yet to take further partial profits with Bitcoin showing continuous strength even at these levels. BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, One last time: BTC-USDT, daily chart as of December 7th, 2020 If you give the second weekly chart a look, in last week’s Bitcoin chartbook publication you will see that we forecasted a bounce at US$18,089. This prognostic manifested as the above daily chart shows in detail and we were able to post this trade in our free telegram channel. The already partial profits taken ensuring risk elimination and as such a free your mind to enjoy unencumbered position management for the remaining position. This is also a fruit of routine. A weekly routine, that we share through our weekly publications. The daily chart shows that prices push into the distribution zone from the highs in 2017 (red horizontal box). A volume analysis for prices of the last two weeks shows support at US$19,045. The signs of strength for prices not immediately bouncing with this strong overhead shows a strength that makes us hold on to our entire long exposure. This allows for further profits should prices break to new all-time highs without the need to open a new high-risk breakout trade. BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, It is worth it: BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of December 7th, 2020 It doesn’t stop there. Just like the lack of a business plan is a near grantee of failure to a business, long term routines in trading are essential. Only with a clear vision from a top-down approach in time frame addressed routinely, warrants for a successful outcome. If you have a brief look at our chart book from October 6th 2020, you will find detailed target anticipation from a timing perspective which came to fruition with astounding accuracy. At Midas Touch, we pride ourselves to go the extra mile to not procrastinate in all time aspects of disciplined planning. That being said, the above chart is an extension in the forecast, this time from a price prediction perspective. We employ partial profit-taking based on our quad exit strategy. Bitcoin riches through a routine One can’t expect to overwrite a useful strong subconscious pattern like fight-flight which urges us strongly to take early profits. For that, a solution like our quad exit strategy is more useful. For any self-inflicted limiting belief though, a daily routine can be the cure for a long painful past in the markets where well-intended motivations were not effective to stop money-losing behavior in the markets.  Diligent practice and repetitive rehearsal as professional athletes do, does the trick. The importance is to accept this being a bit more work than just making up your mind and promise to not do the unwanted behavior ever again but rather rehearsing the newly wanted behavior for an extended period in your daily routine. We post real time entries and exits for many cryptocurrencies in our free Telegram channel. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Korbinian Koller|December 8th, 2020|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
How Will Gold Perform This Winter?

How Will Gold Perform This Winter?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.12.2020 15:14
  Brace yourselves, winter is coming! It may be a harsh period for the United States, but much better for gold. Some of you may have seen snow this year already, but the astronomical winter is still ahead of us. Unfortunately, it could be a really dark winter. Instead of joyful snowball battles and making snowmen, we will have to contend with the coronavirus . The vaccines will definitely help (the first doses of Pfizer’s vaccine were administered this week), but their widespread distribution will begin only next year. So, we still have to deal with the pandemic taking its toll here and now – as the chart below shows, the number of daily COVID-19 cases is still above 200,000 in the U.S. The increasing cases are one thing, but the soaring numbers of COVID-19-related hospitalizations is another, even more terrifying, issue. As one can see in the chart below, the number of patients in U.S. hospitals has reached a record of 100,000, due to a surge in the aftermath of Thanksgiving. Importantly, the situation may get even worse , as people spend more time indoors in winter, and large family gatherings during Christmas and Hanukkah are still ahead us… I know that you are fed up with the date about the epidemic . And I don’t write about the pandemic because I’ve become an epidemiologist or want to scary you; for that all you need to do is read the press headlines or watch TV for a while. I cover the pandemic because it still impacts the global economy, and in particular, it explains why the U.S. economic growth is slowing down. You see, in the summer and autumn of 2020, America’s economy roared back. But that might be a song of the past. As I wrote in Tuesday’s (Dec 8) edition of the Fundamental Gold Report , November’s employment situation report was disappointingly weak, and the high frequency data also point to a slowdown. For example, the number of diners and restaurants, as well as hotel and airline bookings, have declined in recent weeks. So, the increased spread of the coronavirus slows the economy down. A growing share of Americans, even those who were previously skeptical about the epidemiological dangers, worry about catching the virus, thereby reducing their social activity. However, there are also other factors behind the most recent economic slowdown. First, the previous recovery was caused by a low base and the end of the Great Lockdown . The deep economic crisis seen in the spring, with accompanying coronavirus restrictions, will not happen again. Therefore, the initial recovery was fast, but the pace of economic growth had to slow down. Second, the easy fiscal policy helped to increase the GDP , but Congress has so far failed to agree on another stimulus package.   Implications for Gold What does it all mean for the yellow metal? Well, the economy could rise again when the vaccines become widely available. However, we will face a harsh winter first. It means that the coming weeks might be positive for gold – especially considering that in recent years, the shiny metal rallied in January (or sometimes even in the second half of December). But what’s next for gold prices? Will they plunge in 2021 after the rollout of the vaccines? Well, the vaccines are in a sense, a real game changer for the world next year. As they revived the risk appetite, they hit the safe-haven demand for gold. So, yes, there is a downward risk, although it could already be priced in. However, the vaccines are a game changer only in a sense . You see, the vaccines might protect us from the virus, but they will not solve all our economic problems , therefore, caution is still required. On Monday (Dec 7), the Bank of International Settlements warned the public that “we are moving from the liquidity to the solvency phase of the crisis”. Actually, the post-winter, post-pandemic environment might be beneficial for gold. You see, gold is a portfolio-diversifier which serves as a safe haven asset during a period of turmoil, but it performs the best during the very early phase of an economic recovery – especially as the central banks will continue the policy of zero interest rates . Thus, the new stimulus package, low real interest rates , worries about the U.S. dollar strength and debt sustainability, and fears of inflation , which will accompany the economic revival in 2021, should support gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!
PMs: Looking for Key Triggers

PMs: Looking for Key Triggers

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 09.12.2020 15:15
  The question on everyone’s mind is: when is it a good time to buy some gold or silver after they bottom? The answer to that question is simple: when key triggers are met. Count-trend rallies in gold or silver don’t mean that they have enough energy and momentum to keep climbing. Miners also don’t have enough strength to lead the way in a fresh climb upwards for the PMs, so everything we see now only speaks of corrective action. Gold moved higher yesterday (Dec 8), while silver and mining stocks went in the opposite direction. It seems that the latter moved in tune with the trend, while the move in the former was rather accidental. Why? Because gold already invalidated yesterday’s daily rally at the moment of writing these words (in the overnight trading). Yes, the closing prices matter the most, but if gold was really after an important breakout, it wouldn’t have wiped out the previous day’s entire rally just several hours after the closing bell. I previously wrote that it had been quite possible for gold to rally up to its September lows, and the low in gold futures in terms of the closing prices was $1,866.30. Monday’s closing price for gold futures had been exactly $1,866, and yesterday, gold closed at $1874.90. At the moment of writing these words, it’s trading at $1,864.60. So, did anything particularly bullish happen on the gold market yesterday? Not really. But can gold move even higher from here? As discouraging (or encouraging, depending on one’s perspective) as this answer may be, it’s a “yes”. The US Dollar Index is currently trading at about 90.8, and its downside target is at about 90, so there is room for another short-term slide. Such a slide would be likely to trigger a rally in the yellow metal. How high could the rally go during this final part of the counter-trend corrective upswing? Perhaps to the mid-November high of about $1,900. Even though gold might theoretically rally all the way up to the early-November high, I don’t see this as being likely. Meanwhile, silver formed a tiny reversal yesterday and it’s moving lower today. Silver reversed after touching the declining resistance line, which is also the upper border of the triangle pattern. Did we just see a top in silver? That’s quite likely, but not certain. I wouldn’t be surprised if silver took one final attempt to break higher and rally and topped close to the early November high. After all, silver is known for its fake breakouts . Moreover, please note that silver has a triangle-vertex-based reversal point in the final part of the month, which could imply that this is where silver forms a final, or temporary bottom. This could have implications also for the rest of the precious metals sector, as its parts tend to move together in the short and medium term. Given the bearish post-Thanksgiving seasonality in the case of PMs and the tendency for them to form local bottoms in the middle or second half of December, it seems likely that the above is likely to be some kind of bottom.   Mining stocks moved 0.41% lower yesterday, despite a higher close in gold futures and the GLD ETF . The general stock market moved slightly higher yesterday, so it wasn’t the reason behind miners’ weakness. This lack of strength confirms the points that I made yesterday and further validates the bearish picture: What we see in the PMs is just a correction, not the start of a new, powerful upleg. If it was, miners would have been leading the way higher. We currently see the opposite. Over a week ago, I wrote that miners could move to the previous lows and by moving to them, they could verify them as resistance . The previous – October – low is at $36.01 in intraday terms and at $36.52 in terms of the daily closing prices. Yesterday, miners closed at $36.50. So, while gold closed at its September low (in terms of the daily closing prices), gold miners closed at their October low. If the USD Index declines one more time before bottoming, and gold rallies, miners could also move temporarily higher. How high could they move? I think that the mid-November high of about $38 (intraday high: $38.35, daily close: $38.01) would provide the kind of strong resistance that miners might not be able to breach. Still, this upside is based on two big IFs. The first “if” is if the USD Index declines to 90 or slightly lower – it’s extremely oversold, and the CoT reports confirm it. The second “if” is if the precious metals sector really reacts to USD’s decline with a visible rally. In the past few weeks, gold shrugged off quite a few USDX declines. And miners shrugged off even more positive news. Consequently, it seems that trying to take a profit from the possible, but not very likely, immediate-term upswing is not the best idea from the risk to reward point of view. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the downside target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.
USD flat amid new talks of stimulus bill

USD flat amid new talks of stimulus bill

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 16.12.2020 09:16
EURUSD Likely To Challenge Previous HighsThe euro currency is once again back on the front foot as price action inches closer to test the previously established two and a half year high at 1.2176.The gains come as the common currency eased back from its declines earlier this week. Currently, the upside momentum is held by the support from the trend line.However, it will now be critical for the euro to break past the previous barrier. Failure to break out from this two and half year high could result in a possible reversal in price action.This would in turn once again shift focus to the downside.The key support level is near 1.1900. Therefore, in the event that the EURUSD fails to break out any higher, we could probably expect a near term correction in price action.GBPUSD Continues To Trade Flat, Above 1.3300The British pound sterling continues to trade flat albeit, price action is firmly supported above the 1.3300 level.Following the gap higher at the start of the week, the GBPUSD has been pushing lower. For the moment, there remains an unfilled gap from Monday’s open.To the upside, price action is trading well below the key upper range of 1.3483. The weakness in the US dollar is currently helping the British pound to push higher.However, it is unlikely to see any major gains coming in the near term.We expect the sideways range to be held until there is some kind of a resolution to the ongoing Brexit talks between the EU and the UK.WTI Crude Oil Advances To A Nine-Month HighOil prices are trading bullish once again following the previous few sessions where price action was rather subdued.As the bullish momentum slowly grips, oil prices are seen advancing to the previously formed nine-month high.A continuation to the upside could possibly see prices testing a new ten-month high shortly. This would mean that prices would near the 48.00 level for the moment.It would also put oil prices just $2 away from the psychological barrier of $50. The current gains to the upside are supported both by the technicals and the fundamentals in the markets.The key support level at 45.00 remains the downside for the moment.However, it is unlikely that we would see a sharp correction coming anytime soon.Gold Prices Back Near 1850 Technical ResistanceThe precious metal is trading over 1% on Tuesday.The gains come amid fresh talks in the US Congress about a new proposed coronavirus stimulus bill. If this bill is passed, this would put an end to the weeks of speculation in the markets.Gold prices have been trading rather flat after rising above the key support level of 1818.80 in early December this year.For the moment, the technical resistance level of 1850 is being tested once again.However, the stochastics oscillator on the four-hour chart is likely to print lower.This could mean that gold prices could once again retreat back and settle within the range of 1850 and 1818.80.
USD subdued on US Stimulus and Brexit deal outcome

USD subdued on US Stimulus and Brexit deal outcome

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 14.12.2020 08:00
EURUSD Fails To Post New Highs The euro currency’s rebound after the ECB meeting saw prices rising only to highs near 1.2150. Following this, price action retreated, edging closer back to the rising trend line. We expect the trend line support to once again come into the picture. As long as this support holds, the EURUSD might be looking to aim higher. In the event that the common currency loses the trend line support, then we expect price action to fall toward the 1.2050 level, marking the December 9 lows. To the upside, the EURUSD will have to break out above the previous highs of 1.2178 to continue the uptrend. GBPUSD Loses The 1.3300 Support The British pound sterling slipped below the support level of 1.3300 on Friday. This comes as Brexit talks come to a head. For the moment, the lower support near 1.3122 remains the key price point. As long as this support level holds, there is scope for the GBPUSD to push higher. However, prices will need to break out strongly above the 1.3300 level to continue the uptrend. This will then open the GBPUSD to the upper resistance level of 1.3483. To the downside, a close below 1.3122 could open the way for the cable to retest the 1.3000 round number support once again. Oil Prices Pull Back From A Nine-Month High WTI Crude oil prices rose sharply on Thursday to rise close to the 48.00 level. However, prices pulled back into Friday’s close. This comes as the 45.00 level is firmly establishing as support. Thus, a pullback could see this support level being tested once again. The Stochastics oscillator on the 4-hour chart remains mixed. There is enough room for prices to breakout higher. Above the 48.00 level, oil prices will be contending with a retest of the 50.00 level. To the downside, below the 45.00 support area, a correction could bring the commodity down to test the 44.00 handle next. Gold Settles Within The 1850 And 1825 Range The precious metal continues to trade flat for the second consecutive session. As a result, price action is trading within a tight band of the 1850 and the 1825 levels in the near term. The Stochastics oscillator remains biased to the downside. This could mean that if gold prices lose the 1817.80 level of support, then we expect the downside to continue. The next key level of support will be near the 1750 level. It would also mean that gold prices will be moving lower beyond the 30th November lows of 1764.22. To the upside, price action will need to firmly close above 1850 and continue to the 1900 level to establish the uptrend.
Bitcoin – mastering the turning point

Bitcoin – mastering the turning point

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 16.12.2020 12:04
What we mean with the very first is that only for the reversal pattern of a “V” formation one wants to be the very first one to enter into a trade. This is the rarest occurrence of a turning point and for any other tuning points i.e.: double/triple bottoms, ranges, diamonds, rounding bottoms, divergences to name a few you’re always too early and as such not just a sitting duck for possible stops to be triggered but have additional risk due to capital exposed over time.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, No need to be first:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of December 15th, 2020In the daily chart, we can see our principle in action. Shorting the market on a triple top into the distribution resistance zone (red box) would make you a sitting duck. A closer look shows prices already trading above POC (point of control) of a volume analysis, indicating strength. This is confirmed by a strong trend overall (yellow trend line) and strong price behavior (daily price closes are indicating strength). You do not want to be always first just based on a price level. It requires more in-depth analysis and stacking of odds to enter or exit positions. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Overbought:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of December 15th, 2020A view from a linear regression perspective (directional lines red, turquoise, green) shows how extended prices are in the weekly time frame. It puts Bitcoin into a sell zone. Bitcoin is trading in stretched standard deviation levels and could easily snap back to its mean (thin red line). Taking partial profits if exposed from lower levels provides insurance for a possible retracement. Our quad exit strategy provides a guideline on taking profits like this.Nevertheless, recent weeks still point towards price behavior that indicates strength like last week’s candlestick hammer formation.BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, And the winner is:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of December 15th, 2020As always the bigger picture is what matters most. Looking back, Bitcoin has accomplished what most doubted. Its biggest opponents have joined the club and invested now themselves. This left us trading at 2017 highs and congesting there. Clearly representing strength. The monthly chart above shows that with the past “W” formation alone a presence of probabilities is set that makes even the worst scenario (a retracement to 14k) attractive (white dotted line). The highest likelihood is a breakout through all-time highs. This, in turn, allows for a continuation move to higher price levels (turquoise dotted line).Bitcoin - mastering the turning pointFrom the three most dominant aspects of trading (price, volume, and time), time seems to be the most overlooked in the trading approach. Traders are in principle too early in and out of trades. It is essential to at least add an edge like a volume analysis or otherwise high probability strategy if one trades form a price level perspective. Especially to not be caught by professionals who are aware of amateurs trading a support resistance approach only. At Midas Touch, we employ a complex stacking of odds to cut through a turning point in an effective way extracting low-risk entry points at the appropriate time. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Stock Pick Update: Dec. 16 – Dec. 22, 2020

Stock Pick Update: Dec. 16 – Dec. 22, 2020

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.12.2020 14:19
Header: Which stocks could magnify S&P 500’s gains in case it rallies? Take a look at a part of our Stock Pick Update. We have included two Energy stocks and one Financials stock again. In the last five trading days (December 9 – December 15) the broad stock market has been trading within a short-term consolidation following its recent record-breaking run-up. The S&P 500 index has reached new record high of 3,712.39 a week ago on Wednesday. Then it retraced some of the advance before going back up on Monday-Tuesday this week.The S&P 500 index has lost 0.31% between December 9 open and December 15 close. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have gained 1.32%. Stock picks were relatively much stronger than the broad stock market last week. Our long stock picks have gained 0.91% and short stock picks have resulted in a gain of 1.73%. So short stock picks’ performance outpaced the benchmark return on the downside.There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.Our last week’s portfolio result:Long Picks (December 9 open – December 15 close % change): XOM (+0.77%), EOG (+0.62%), PGR (+4.73%), BK (+0.51%), MMM (-2.10%)Short Picks (December 9 open – December 15 close % change): LNT (-0.81%), CNP (-1.64%), ABBV (-4.28%), DHR (-0.16%), APTV (-1.75%)Average long result: +0.91%, average short result: +1.73%Total profit (average): +1.32%Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, December 16 – Tuesday, December 22 period.We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (December 16) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (December 22).We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:buys: 2 x Energy, 2 x Financials, 1 x Communication Servicessells: 2 x Utilities, 2 x Real Estate, 1 x Consumer StaplesBuy CandidatesXOM Exxon Mobil Corp. - EnergyStock broke above its short-term downward trend line, uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $40 and resistance level is at $44-47 (short-term target profit level)COP ConocoPhillips – EnergyPossible short-term bull flag pattern, uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $42 and resistance level is at $45-50WFC Wells Fargo & Co. – FinancialsPossible short-term bull flag pattern – uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $29.50 and resistance level is at $30.00Summing up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Energy and Financials sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .Thank you.Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *DisclaimerAll essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Deceptive Rally? Measuring Silver’s Relative Strength

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.12.2020 17:43
It’s tempting to ride the silver rollercoaster. After-all, gold’s volatile little brother is just that – volatile. Its wilder price swings make some of the investment public believe they can profit from it more quickly. However, it’s important to remember and take note of the fact that silver (or gold and miners for that matter) should not be judged on its own when making a purchasing decision. It’s a bit more complicated and other factors come into play, such as relative strength.One must track the precious metals’ performance against equities or the USD Index. Asking questions is prudent; how is silver doing compared to gold, and why? The USDX is moving lower but the PMs are not rallying? Hmmm, is there enough strength for them to break out? Silver or gold don’t exist in a vacuum. Instead, their performance has to be judged relative to other factors.The white metal closed yesterday’s (Dec. 15) session right at its declining resistance line. It moved sharply higher today, soaring above both: its declining resistance line and its December high.This is exactly what silver tends to do right before significant declines – it’s exceptionally strong – more than gold and mining stocks. Why would this be the case? Because silver is a relatively thin market, where many institutional investors can’t go as there’s not enough silver for them. The “big players” generally go for gold, and silver is favored by the investment public. The silver manipulation theories are making the demand among the investment public even stronger, and the investment public (as a general group, not any individual person) tends to enter the market close to the tops.The above-mentioned factors – along with the relatively small size of the silver market – make the white metal perform very well (too well) near the local tops. Of course, this doesn’t work each and every time, just like any other trading technique, and one should also look for additional confirmations before making a trade (like weak miners , which tend to react differently than silver).It does imply, however, that it’s best not to take silver’s strength at its face value, and definitely not to view it as bullish unless it’s confirmed by the rest of the precious metals sector. Today’s breakout in silver and lack thereof in gold is not a bullish development, but a bearish one.Moving on to the performance of the mining stocks, let’s take a look at the chart below.The GDX ETF – proxy for precious metals mining stocks – moved higher yesterday, more than nullifying the previous day’s decline. But, overall, was it really strong? Absolutely not. In today’s trading on the London Stock Exchange, the GDX is up only a bit above Tuesday’s intraday highs, and it corrected only a bit more than a half of the December decline.Simply put:Gold is relatively weak compared to what’s happening in the USD IndexSilver is relatively strong to gold and breaking above the previous resistance levels without confirmations from neither gold, nor mining stocksGold and silver mining stocks are weak compared to what’s happening in goldThe above is a perfectly bearish combination on the relative strength front. Combining this with USDX’s proximity to its target area makes the overall implications for the precious metals market very bearish.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the downside target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks.If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Stocks Surge on Stimulus Hopes

Stocks Surge on Stimulus Hopes

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.12.2020 17:48
Stocks rose sharply on Tuesday (Dec. 15) as optimism grew that Congress could pass another economic stimulus package before year’s end.News RecapThe Dow Jones gained 337.76 points, or 1.1%, and closed at 30,199.31. The S&P 500 also gained 1.3% and snapped a four-day losing streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.3% and reached a new record closing high of 12,595.06. However, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 2.40%.In the strongest indication yet that we may be coming closer to a stimulus agreement, the top four congressional leaders-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy - all were set to meet after market close on Tuesday (Dec. 15).Democrats and Republicans still remain deeply divided on certain matters, but a two-part bipartisan stimulus plan proposed on Tuesday (Dec. 15) has a chance of passing.The stimulus package would provide around $908 billion in total aid. The first part would be a $748 billion stimulus package that includes an additional $300 per week in federal unemployment benefits and another $300 billion for more PPP loans. This segment would also include money for vaccine distribution, education, and rental assistance. The second segment would be a $160 billion aid package and cover the more partisan issues of business liability protections and financial aid to state and local governments.The first round of shots from the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech were given in the U.S. on Monday (Dec. 14) with further distributions occurring Tuesday (Dec. 15).FDA staff announced that they endorsed emergency usage of Moderna’s vaccine. The FDA’s vaccine advisory panel will meet Thursday (Dec. 16) to decide whether to recommend clearance for emergency use. Upon authorization, government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer doses already in distribution.Apple led the Dow higher, jumping 5% after Nikkei reported that the company will increase iPhone production by about 30% in the first half of 2021.All 11 S&P 500 sectors gained on Tuesday (Dec. 15) and were led by energy and utilities.We are approaching the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic yet. 300,000 people across the country have now lost their lives to the disease. However, the worst may not be over yet. According to the CDC Director Robert Redfield, US COVID-19 deaths are likely to exceed the 9/11 death toll for the next 60 days.The short-term may see some pain and/or mixed sentiment due to two major catalysts - the lack of stimulus and an out-of-control virus.According to Art Hogan , chief market strategist at National Securities:“There’s been a tug of war between the vaccine news and the virus news. The only tiebreaker that’s kept the averages on their way higher seems to be the potential for getting stimulus out of gridlock...It certainly feels like one of the proposals that’s on the table ... can go through.”Additionally, Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said that another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before a mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”On the other hand, the mid-term and long-term optimism is very real. While there may be some semblance of a “Santa Claus Rally” occurring, the general consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain, and focus on the longer-term gains.According to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, like Monday (Dec. 14), the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen - cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. On other days, like Tuesday (Dec. 15), there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021 related euphoria. On other days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty.However, if a stimulus deal passes before the end of the year, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening such as small-caps should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments though, it is truly a challenge to predict the future with certainty.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! Always happy to hear from you. DrivingEnergy (XLE)Energy is a sector largely dependent on sentiment, with several question marks.On one hand, if you are bullish, all of this vaccine news bodes well for a full economic reopening by the second half of 2021. That means travel, and therefore fuel demand, could surge back to pre-pandemic levels. WTI crude futures on Tuesday (Dec. 15) extended gains to trade around 1% higher at $47.5 a barrel due to cautious optimism on further US stimulus in addition to the vaccine(s).On the other hand, there are very real short-term concerns. There are fresh concerns over global fuel demand as countries, states, and cities across the world tighten coronavirus restrictions. Germany and the Netherlands will enter a new lockdown, while the UK government imposed tighter Covid-19 measures on London. In New York City, Mayor Bill De Blasio warned that the city is on the path towards a second full shutdown. Governor Andrew Cuomo already banned all indoor dining. The newly inaugurated Mayor of Baltimore, Brandon Scott, also banned all dining - both indoor and outdoor. OPEC also lowered its projections for global fuel consumption in Q1 2021 by 1 million barrels a day as well. The organization will meet on January 4th to evaluate if they can move on with supply increases. Much anticipated data from the EIA is also due on Wednesday.This is such an unpredictable sector experiencing great volatility. It is almost as if energy is either the S&P 500’s leader or its laggard. There is never anything in between. These are simply risky and major percentage swings on a day-to-day basis.It is a very difficult sector to make a bullish call on. There are still simply too many headwinds to be overly euphoric. While energy is still largely undervalued, and the RSI is no longer overbought, the volume is not stable. Most importantly, nobody truly knows what oil’s long-term prospects are, with the increased adoption of renewable energy and ESG investing.This year we have seen that when energy rallies, it eventually pulls back. Judging from the chart, that inevitable pullback could possibly come again. For the month of December, the ETF is up nearly 8%. But I would be more confident in either calling BUY or HOLD or a pullback - not during such a volatile time.While there is vaccine optimism now that there wasn’t before, conditions are largely the same on the ground with regard to COVID-19 and travel demand. Therefore, my call is to take profits and SELL. DivingCommunication Services (XLC)I really don’t like this sector and I will explain why. Although the Communication Services ETF touched a 52-week high recently, the gains have not been as stable or as robust compared to other sectors. But this is generally par the course for communications stocks. This is a sector that continuously underperforms other sectors both in the short-term and long-term.While traditionally this is a good sector to find value in, right now I just don’t see it. I see downside risk without the same type of upside potential as exists in other sectors that may benefit more from a successful vaccine roll-out and economic reopening.Furthermore, the ETF’s volume is already low, and has been in decline. This screams volatility to me.I just can’t see how you would benefit buying into this sector. It is hard to foresee how this sector will truly benefit from a vaccine and 2021 reopening relative to other sectors. Therefore, I give it a SELL call.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show – Part II

Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show – Part II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 16.12.2020 18:20
In the first part of our US$ and Gold research, we highlighted the US Dollar vs. Gold trends and how we believe precious metals have recently bottomed while the US Dollar may be starting a broad decline.  We are highlighting this because many of our friends and followers have asked us to put some research out related to the US Dollar decline.  Back in November, we published an article that highlighted the Appreciation/Depreciation phases of the market.  This past research article - How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase – Part II - is an excellent review item for today's Part II conclusion to our current article. Custom Metals Index Channels & TrendsOur Weekly Custom Metals Index chart, below, highlights the major bottom in precious metals in late 2015 as well as the continued upside price rally that is taking place in precious metals.  If our research is correct, the bottom that formed in 2015 was a “half cycle bottom” - where the major cycle dates span from 2010 to 2019 or so.  This half-cycle bottom suggests risk factors related to the global market and massive credit expansion after the 2008-09 credit crisis may have sparked an early appreciation phase in precious metals – launching precious metals higher nearly 3 to 4 years before the traditional cycle phases would normally end/reverse.Recently, the upside price trend on this Custom Metals index page suggests a price channel has setup and may continue.  The recent pullback in price has just recently touched the lower price channel and started to stall near these lows.  If precious metals prices resume any upward price trends after reaching these lows, the technical pattern will stay valid and we believe Gold will attempt to rally above $2350 to $2500 in this next leg higher.  Longer-term, we feel it us just a matter of time before precious metals begin another breakout rally.Longer-term Cycle Phases – Why They Are ImportantLastly, we want to leave you with the following longer-term market cycle chart showing the US Dollar, the SPX500 and GOLD.  We know this chart is a bit complicated and cluttered, but we'll try to highlight the key elements for you to understand.  First, look for the rallies and declines in the US Dollar Index in alignment with the “Appreciation” and “Depreciation” phases.  Remember, the left and right edges of this chart are in a “Depreciation” phase thus, the dramatic selloff in the US Dollar index on the left edge of this chart took place near the beginning of a Depreciation Phase.  The rally in the US Dollar Index from 1992 to 2000 took place in an Appreciation Phase.  Currently, we believe we have ended an Appreciation Phase and started a new Depreciation phase in the markets.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Now, take a look at the SPX500 line on this chart.  Notice how bigger rallies take place in Appreciation phases and sideways trending (with massive volatility) take place in Depreciation phases?  The last Appreciation Phase started in 2010~11 (or so) and ended in 2018~19 (or so).  If our research is correct, this new Depreciation phase will last until 2027~28 (or so) and may prompt a very big volatility cycle in the US Dollar and the US/Global stock markets.Now, pay attention to how Gold setup a major bottom in late 2015 (mid-cycle phase).  Could this be an indication that precious metals reacted to the peak in the US Dollar index rally phase early 2015 and subsequent peak in the US Dollar in December 2016 (remember, that date was just after a major US election)?  Could the early phase rally in precious metals be warning us that another 600%+  rally in precious metals (just like what happened from 2000 to 2011) take place from the 2015 Gold lows near $1080?  If so, does this mean the ultimate upside price target for Gold is some where above $6,800?If our research is correct, the longer term rotations in the global markets aligned with these major market phases will mean traders will have to learn to identify and trade the best performing assets at all times.  The shifts in how assets and sectors are valued will continue to roll in and out of favor as capital moves from one sector to another.  Precious metals and the US Dollar are just one component of the broader markets – there are hundreds of sector ETFs  and thousands of individual stock symbols to select from.  Skilled traders need to know when sectors perform the best and which asset classes/symbols are poised for the best returns – that is the only way to really try to beat the markets over the next 9+ years.Precious metals should continue to find support and attempt to rally higher if our longer-term research is accurate, but skilled technical traders know we can't simply rely on precious metals over the next 8+ years – we need more diversity and we need to protect our trading capital from losses.  The only way to do that is to learn how to spot the best performing assets and to stay ahead of emerging trends.  Get ready, the next few years are certainly going to be interesting and full of opportunities.We publish this free research to help you stay ahead of broad market trends and to illustrate how we apply our technical analysis skills in helping you find and trade the best performing assets. We are proud of the research we deliver to you fro FREE, but if you want to profit from our knowledge then go to www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about our BAN trading and review an example of my daily pre-market reports. Please take a minute to visit our web site to see how we can help you survive and prosper from these big future trends.Happy Trading!
The Watchlist: Analysis Of Forex Flows

The Watchlist: Analysis Of Forex Flows

Ivan Delgado Ivan Delgado 17.12.2020 02:02
Daily EdgeIn the last 24h, since I last sat down to write my take-away in the marketplace, the level of flow imbalances in the Forex market has gone down a notch. The Sterling takes the podium once again as the best performing currency even if the gap opened up against the G8 FX peers was minimal. The CAD, meanwhile, is the exception with sellers overwhelmingly in charge.To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4. In terms of the fundamental drivers playing a role in the last movements seen, this is what the script looked like. Early in Asia, the New Zealand Dollar was pressured lower in a move that dragged on through the London session. This occurred despite the release of the half-yearly update from the NZ Treasury saw GDP forecasts boosted and that for the peak unemployment rate lowered.As Europe came online, we learned some encouraging news out of Europe, with the positive French and German PMI prints for December. The Euro and the Swiss Franc, which often move in lockstep, reaped the most benefits as algo-buying activity followed suit in the immediate aftermath. However, we failed to see follow-through demand.The bullish moves in the EUR or the CHF proved legless, and certainly didn’t dispute the dominance of the Pound since early this week as hopes of a trade deal have definitively been brought back to be the forefront as the default narrative the market is buying into. Negotiations between the EU and the UK will likely stretch into the weekend again.Lastly, the one even we were all waiting for, even if the chances to see sustained volatility were pretty slim, came in the form of the FOMC. After all said and done, it proved to be a rather muffled affair. The lack of any new action from the FOMC was well reflected in how the market reacted. After an initial knee-jerk response in the US dollar, vol ended up being short-lived and legless. Fed’s Chairman Powell reiterated for the zillionth time that the Central Bank will remain in hyper-dovish mode with no rush whatsoever to raise rates.When it comes to trading opportunities, there was a phenomenal TT structure to play long CHF/JPY in Europe that ended up being a scratch trade. As I shift gears to the merits of a few selected currency pairs that currently offer for the best contextual settings to find opportunities, the video below invites you into my thoughts of the market for today.Analysis of the Forex trendsIn my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.Holding trades overnight? Check out Global Prime swap rates.
Nasdaq Hits Yet Another Record Close

Nasdaq Hits Yet Another Record Close

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.12.2020 18:23
The major indices closed mixed on Wednesday (Dec. 16), as the Nasdaq hit yet another record close amidst stimulus optimism and the Fed’s dovish tone.News RecapAlthough the Dow Jones closed lower by 44.77 points, or 0.15%, the S&P 500 gained for the second day in a row and rose by 0.18%. The Nasdaq closed once again at a record high and gained 0.5%.Sentiment for the day started negatively after the Commerce Department reported a steeper-than-expected drop in U.S. retail sales. The department stated that retail sales fell by 1.1% in November compared to estimates of 0.3%.Cautious optimism that some sort of stimulus could be passed before the end of the year encouraged investors.According to Politico , Congress was on the brink of a $900 billion stimulus deal that would include a new round of direct payments to consumers. However, that package would exclude the more contentious areas of liability shields for businesses and state and local aid.We have reached the deadliest weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 300,000 total COVID-19 related deaths have now been confirmed in the U.S., with over 16 million confirmed cases. Additionally, US officials reported 3,400 new COVID-19 deaths - a daily record.After an FDA panel officially endorsed Moderna (MRNA) - following a review which confirmed safety and efficacy earlier in the week – the big day is finally here. On Thursday (Dec. 17), the FDA will officially vote on Moderna's vaccine. This will strongly complement the mass deployment of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech’s (BNTX) vaccine.The Federal Reserve ’s announcement on monetary policy was largely as dovish as expected. The Fed vowed to continue its asset purchase program at the current rate, “until substantial further progress has been made toward the committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals.”Microsoft (MSFT) and Salesforce (CRM) led the Dow with gains of 2.4% and 1.6%, respectively, while Walgreens (WBA) was the laggard and declined 2.15%.Moderna (MRNA), despite its big week ahead, dropped 6.9%.While there is some short-term uncertainty and mixed sentiment, there is some general consensus: While the short-term may see some pain and/or mixed sentiment, it may be worth it for the medium-term and long-term optimism.The overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021- despite near-term risks. Outside of the pandemic raging to out of control levels, another near-term risk that has been largely overlooked is the Senate runoff election in Georgia. Investors have largely already priced in a divided government - however, if Republicans end up losing both seats in Georgia, this could potentially upend everything.According to Jimmy Lee, CEO of the Wealth Consulting Group ,“I think that we can get a little bit of consolidation before year-end just due to normal selling at the year-end for rebalancing or tax loss harvesting. Also, depending on where the pulse is for the Senate race in Georgia, investors might want to get ahead of that if they think that capital gains taxes may go up in the future...So that could cause some additional selling before year-end and we could get a little bit of a pullback. But I am very bullish on equities at this point. And I do think we may get a little bit more of a rotation into the economy-opening sectors.”Meanwhile, progress on the stimulus package appears to be more optimistic than many expected in the near-term.“The odds of a fiscal deal before year’s end have been improving,” Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Tuesday (Dec. 15). “While we had expected a smaller package to pass now with a larger package waiting until early 2021, it appears increasingly likely that most of this could pass this week.”While markets for the rest of 2020 (and perhaps early 2021), will wrestle with the negative reality on the ground and optimism for an economic rebound, the general consensus appears to be looking past the short-term painful realities, and focusing more on the longer-term - a world where COVID-19 is expected to be a thing of the past and we are back to normal.In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On other days, such as Wednesday (Dec. 16) (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. Therefore, it is truly hard to say with conviction what will happen with markets in the next 1-3 months. However, if a stimulus deal passes within the next week, it could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed to the general public, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening such as small-caps should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments, it is truly hard to say with any degree of certainty whether another crash or bear market will come.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen. Nasdaq Hits Another Record Close - Too Good to Be True?Is the Nasdaq’s performance since its sharp sell-off last Wednesday (Dec. 9) too good to be true? Truthfully, I don’t know. But it’s very possible - especially if shut down measurements become harsher and stricter and investors return to the “stay-at-home” trade that led markets from April through the end of October.Additionally, I still have many concerns about tech valuations and their astoundingly inflated levels. Last week’s IPOs of DoorDash (DASH) and AirBnB (ABNB) reflect this and invoke traumatic memories of the dotcom bubble era. I believe that more pullbacks along the lines of last Wednesday (Dec. 9) could inevitably come in the short-term. Frankly, it would make me feel far more confident about initiating tech positions as well for the long-term.Pay close attention to the RSI. While an overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, I called keeping a very close eye on this for the Nasdaq. Last Wednesday’s (Dec. 9th) Nasdaq pullback after it exceeded a 70 RSI reflects that.The Nasdaq has sharply rallied in the week since then. But its RSI is nearly 69. Monitor this . If the index goes on another bull-run and hits more record closes, it could surely exceed an RSI of 70 by the end of market close on Thursday (Dec. 17). I did not make a conviction call last week but I will now- if the RSI exceeds 70 this time, take profits- but don’t fully exit .One thing I do like is how stable the volume has been this week and since the sharp sell-off last week. Stable volume is a good thing, especially if one is concerned about volatility. Low volume, especially a declining trend, means that there are fewer shares trading. Lower volume also means less liquidity across the index, and an increase in stock price volatility.On pessimistic days, having NASDAQ exposure is crucial because of all the “stay-at-home” trade. However, positive vaccine-related news always induces the risk of downward pressure on tech names - both on and off the NASDAQ. What concerns me most are sharp sell-offs due to overheating and mania. Don’t ever let anyone tell you “this time is different” if fears of the dot-com bubble are discussed. History repeats itself, especially in markets.It is very hard to say with conviction to sell your tech shares though. However, as I said before - if the RSI exceeds 70 again - consider selling some shares and taking profits. For now, however, the NASDAQ stays a HOLD .For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
METALS/MINERS SHIFTING GEARS – ARE YOU READY FOR WHAT'S NEXT? - PART I

METALS/MINERS SHIFTING GEARS – ARE YOU READY FOR WHAT'S NEXT? - PART I

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.12.2020 20:34
The recent bottom in Metals/Miners has everyone excited to see what this next upside price leg is capable of achieving.  The extended Pennant/Flag formation that setup a peak in August 2020 has nearly reached the Apex.  The upside move in Gold and Silver, as well as Junior Miner ETFs, over the past few weeks suggests a new upside price trend is setting up.  The concept that commodities and metals are very new to historically low price levels sets up expectations that a longer-term price advance could send Gold above $3750 and send Silver above $50 as expectations adjust to the new price cycles.WHERE ARE WE IN THE COMMODITY/METALS CYCLE?Some of my team’s recent research has highlighted our belief that we are just starting a Depreciation cycle for the US/Global stock market which aligns with the historic lows for Commodities/Metals. Take a look at our analysis of the Gold and the US$ cycle, Gold and the SPY and QQQ, and our price targets for Gold using our proprietary ADL tool for some additional background.Using our proprietary price modeling and Adaptive Learning technology, we’ve identified a broad market cycle that lasts between 9 to 9.5 years (on average) and we believe a US stock market appreciation phase ended in 2018~2019.  We feel the current rally in the US stock market is an “excess phase” (blow off top) rally that may extend well into early 2021 before suddenly shaking out the hype.  This same type of enthusiasm is taking place across the globe and in various classes of assets (Cryptos, various market sectors, Metals and Essential Minerals, and others).  The US Fed, and global central banks, are fueling the rally with easy monetary policies – attempting to keep the party going.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next research report!We suggest traders watch how hedging instruments react to this excess phase over the next 12 to 24 months.  When precious metals, miners and Cryptos (which have now become a new hedging instrument) begin to rally when the US stock market is flat or devaluing – then we may be very close to the end of the excess phase.BLOOMBERG COMMODITIES INDEX BOTTOMThese long-term Bloomberg Commodities Index and Silver to M2Money Supply charts highlight the extended downtrend in commodities over the past 12 years.  Interestingly, this decline in the Commodities Index,hart below, aligns with our longer term Appreciation phase in the US stock market from 2009 to 2018~19. Source : www.Bloomberg.comThe deep lows of the COVID-19 market collapse may have setup a major bottom in the Commodities Index going forward.  If our research is correct, commodities should start a major upward price trend which lasts for 5 to 7 more years.  We have highlighted a mean price range (in RED) from the 2009 to 2013 area suggesting commodity prices could recover to this level fairly quickly in a new Appreciation phase.BLOOMBERG SILVER TO MONEY SUPPLY RATIOThe following Silver to Money Supply Ratio chart highlights how inexpensive Silver is in comparison to historical values.  Even though Silver is trading near $26 per ounce right now, historical mean levels in Appreciation phases suggest Silver could rally 200% to 300% (or more) from these lows.  We’ve highlighted an area in RED on this chart showing a moderate mean average of the last Appreciation phase (2004 through 2011).  www.Bloomberg.comIn the second part of this research article, we’ll go over the setups in various Gold and Silver miner charts that may represent an incredible opportunity for traders.  If you understand the scope and consequences of these broad market cycles, the Appreciation/Deprecation cycles, and what this means for commodities, metals, miners and other assets, then you will quickly understand we are in the midst of a shift in these cycles.  We must prepare for what is next so we can adapt our trading style to profit from these new big trends.Take a minute or two to read the other research articles I’ve linked to at the start of this article.  It is important that you understand the longer-term cycles that are unfolding and how these cycles present very real opportunities for traders.  Then visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about our Best Asset Now (BAN) strategy where we identify the best ETFs and other assets in any market trend.  BAN allows us to quickly identify when and how to invest our capital in top performing asset classes. Trading the hottest sectoral ETFs helps us beat market returns without having to scan and pick from thousands of stocks.Happy Trading!
METALS/MINERS SHIFTING GEARS – ARE YOU READY FOR WHAT'S NEXT? - PART II

METALS/MINERS SHIFTING GEARS – ARE YOU READY FOR WHAT'S NEXT? - PART II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 18.12.2020 14:16
In the first part of our research, we highlighted our broad market super-cycle trend analysis.  This analysis suggests the global markets are shifting away from a stock market appreciation phase into a depreciation phase.  This shift will likely prompt a new commodities sector appreciation phase to begin fairly quickly.If you remember how Gold started to move higher in 2003~04 after reaching low price levels in 2001?  My research team and I believe a 9 to 9.5 year appreciation/depreciation cycle takes place in stocks and commodities, and the relationship between the two is inverted.  For example, the bottom in Gold which took place in 2001 also aligned with the end of a US stock market appreciation cycle that started in 1992.  The rally in Gold after 2001 was directly inverted to the new depreciation cycle in the US stock market at that time.  Let's review these past long-term Appreciation/Depreciation cycles:Long-Term Appreciation/Depreciation Cycle PhasesCycle Year StartStock MarketUS DollarPrecious Metals1983DepreciationDepreciationAppreciation1992AppreciationAppreciationDepreciation2001DepreciationDepreciationAppreciation2010AppreciationAppreciationDepreciation2019DepreciationDepreciationAppreciation2027 (proposed)AppreciationAppreciationDepreciationIf our research is correct, the current Depreciation phase has just started and we are experiencing an “excess phase” (blow-off) top formation in the US and Global stock markets.  This longer-term cycle phase chart (below) helps to illustrate how these cycles work.  Even though some of you may be able to find areas on this chart where the US Stock market did not decline within a depreciation phase, watch how the US Dollar and Gold reacted throughout these phases as well.  It is critical to understand that each of these assets can, and often do, engage in counter-trend phases (at times) when shifts in phase dynamics are more evident.  For example, the peak in the US stock market in 2000 was an example of how the US stock market reacted to a pending phase shift before Gold and the US Dollar began to react efficiently to this phase shift.Notice how we've also drawn the current and next phase of the markets highlighting target ranges out to 2036 and beyond. We suggest taking a minute to read some of our earlier research posts related to these cycle phases so you can better understand how to prepare for the big trends.Junior Gold Miners Should Rally In Legs – Targeting $95 or higherOur research team believes the end of the current stock market excess phase will happen sometime in early-to-mid 2021.  The end of this phase will usher in a new phase of capital deployment where investors seek out undervalued assets and hedge risk in the global markets.  Just like what happened after the bottom of the global markets after the 2009-10 credit market crash, it took nearly 2+ years for the markets (including precious metals) to come to the realization that a new stock market appreciation phase had setup.  This took place from 2012 to 2013.  After that shift in thinking took place, investors moved capital into the US stock market and away from hedge assets which resulted in a very strong upward price trend reaching the peak levels we see today.Our researchers believe the appreciation phase ended in 2019 and we are currently experiencing the same type of “excess phase” (blow-off top) that took place in precious metals in 2012~2013.  The end phase rotation of assets chasing a potentially weakening trend in the global stock market.  When and IF this excess phase ends, commodities and precious metals should really begin to skyrocket higher. Junior miners, seen in this GDXJ chart below, should begin to move higher in advancing legs.  We've drawn these legs on the chart (below) as arrows – showing you how price may advance in the future.  Each advancing leg will “reset” after a brief pause/pullback, then another advancing leg will begin.  Remember, this is a longer-term appreciation phase in commodities and metals that should last through 2026~2027 (or longer).Junior Silver Miners Should Also Rally In LegsJunior Silver Miners, SILJ, should begin to advance to levels near $21, then stall for a few days/weeks, then attempt to advance to levels above $28~$30 if our research is correct.  This advance in the Junior Silver miners will not likely peak near $30 though. This rally in metals, miners, and other commodities may last well beyond 2026~27 based on our research.  This type of trend could really turn into a life-changing appreciation/depreciation phase for traders.It is important that you understand the longer-term cycles that are unfolding and how these cycles present very real opportunities for traders and investors alike.  We deliver these free research articles to highlight our skills and technology solutions which help you stay ahead of market trends.  Our long-term cycle analysis can help long-term investors stay ahead of the pack, and give traders an edge by identifyingthe Best Assets Now to hold and trade. Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you protect and grow your investment and trading accounts.
Stocks Surge to New Records on More Optimism

Stocks Surge to New Records on More Optimism

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 18.12.2020 17:41
Major averages hit both all-time intraday and closing highs on Thursday (Dec. 17), riding on vaccine optimism and hopes that a stimulus package could be passed in a matter of days.News RecapThe Dow Jones climbed 148.83 points, or 0.5%, to 30,303.37 for a record close. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit intraday and closing records as well and gained 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. In typical fashion, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 1.30%.Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Thursday (Dec. 17) said that a stimulus deal was closing in. Congress appears to be nearing a $900 million stimulus package that would include direct payments to individuals. However, the package would exclude the partisan issues of liability protections for businesses and aid to state and local governments.Despite the optimistic tone of the day, jobless claims disappointed for a second consecutive week. Jobless claims totaled 885,000 last week, hitting their highest levels since early September. This was also significantly worse than the expected 808,000.An FDA panel officially endorsed Moderna's (MRNA) COVID-19 vaccine. It could officially be cleared for emergency usage as early as Friday (Dec. 18), and be distributed as soon as after the weekend. Upon authorization, government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer (PFE) doses already in distribution.Real estate, materials and health care were the best-performing sectors in the S&P 500, each gaining over 1%. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose 2.6% to lead the Dow higher.Tesla (TSLA) gained 5.32% and will now officially join the S&P 500.We are in the darkest days of the pandemic. On average, the U.S. is recording at least 215,729 additional COVID-19 cases a day . More than 114,200 Americans are also now hospitalized , and over 3,400 new deaths were recorded. According to the CDC Director, Robert Redfield, US COVID-19 deaths are likely to exceed the 9/11 death toll for the next 60 days.While sentiment has been positive over the last two trading sessions, there will still be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news. It’s quite simple really - until a stimulus is passed and the virus is somewhat brought under control, there will be negative pressure on the markets. Even though a stimulus package passing appears to be imminent, time is running short and we may be at a fork in the road.For now, though, hopes that a deal could pass through are sending stocks higher.“Stimulus is still the main driver in the market right now until they get something done, and it does appear there is some motivation on that front to get something done,” said Dan Deming, managing director at KKM Financial, further stating that “the market’s benefiting from that (enthusiasm).”Additionally, Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said that another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before the mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”The overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021 though, despite near-term risks. While there may be some semblance of a “Santa Claus Rally” occurring, the general consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain and focus on the longer-term gains. The mid-term and long-term optimism is very real.According to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen, with cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. Sometimes a broad sell-off based on fear or overheating may occur as well. On other days, there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021-related euphoria. Additionally, there will be days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), when markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. But if we get an early Christmas present and a stimulus package passes, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening, such as small-caps, should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments though, it is truly hard to say with any degree of certainty that a correction will happen or more record high rallies will occur.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible, but it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Please do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! I’m always happy to hear from you. DrivingSmall-Caps (IWM)In typical fashion, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 1.30% on Thursday (Dec. 17). I truly love small-cap stocks in the long-term and this small-cap rally is more encouraging than the “stay-at-home” stock rallies from April/May. This is a bullish sign for a long-term economic recovery and shows that investors are optimistic that a vaccine will return life to relatively normalcy in 2021.I do have some concerns of overheating in the short-term however, especially with the headwinds that still exist. The Russell keeps outperforming no matter what the market sentiment of the day or week is. For example, although the week ended December 11th was an overall down week, the Russell 2000 STILL managed to outperform the larger indices and eek out another weekly gain of 1.02%. While it is remarkable, I do not see how this is sustainable in the short-term.The performance of the Russell 2000 index since early November has been nothing short of staggering. Although the Russell index is composed mostly of small-cap value cyclical stocks dependent on the recovery of the broader economy, and may be more adversely affected on “sell-the-news” kind of days, its hot streak since November has not cooled off in the slightest.Since the start of November, the Russell 2000 has skyrocketed and considerably outperformed the other major indices. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), in comparison to the ETFs tracking the Dow (DIA), S&P (SPY), and Nasdaq (QQQ), has risen 28.62%. This is at least 13% higher than all of the other major indices. Since the start of December, the Russell ETF has also outperformed the other ETFs between 4%-5%.However, when looking at the chart for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , it becomes pretty evident that small-cap stocks have overheated in the short-term. These are stocks that will experience more short-term volatility. Stocks don’t always go up but the Russell’s trajectory since November has been essentially vertical. The IWM ETF keeps hitting record highs while the RSI keeps overinflating way past overbought levels. I would SELL and trim profits for the short-term but do not fully exit these positions. A stimulus could be imminent and send these stocks soaring more. But if there is a pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery. DivingUS Dollar ($USD)The U.S. Dollar’s plunge continues to its lowest levels in years. I called the return to oversold levels this week despite the currency piercing the 91-level last Wednesday (Dec. 9). I knew it was “fool's gold” and not the sign of any sort of breakout. I have been calling the dollar’s weakness for weeks despite its low levels, and I expect the decline to continue.For the first time since April 2018, the world’s reserve currency is now trading below 90.Why did the dollar plunge so much on Thursday (Dec. 17)? You can thank the Fed! After the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone and reassurance on Wednesday (Dec. 16) that it won’t be soon tapering its bond purchases, bearish traders took this as a sign to continue selling the dollar.“The latest blow to the dollar came from the Fed, which vowed not to touch policy even if the outlook for the U.S. economy brightens as it now expects,” said Joe Manimbo , senior analyst at Western Union Business Solutions.After hitting a nearly 3-year high in March, the dollar has plunged in excess of 13%.Meanwhile, other currencies continued strengthening on Thursday (Dec. 17), relative to the dollar:The euro rose 0.6% to $1.2270, hitting its highest level versus the dollar since April 2018. The euro is up more than 9% year to date.The dollar fell to a more-than-three-year low versus the Japanese yen and declined 0.4% to ¥103.07.The British pound was up 0.5% at $1.3575 - its highest since April 2018.Both the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar each gained 0.6% versus the US dollar.The US dollar was off 0.1% vs. the Canadian dollar.After briefly rising above an oversold RSI of 30 last week, the dollar’s RSI is at an alarmingly low 22.96. The dollar is also significantly trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.Many believe that the dollar could fall further too.If the world returns to relative normalcy within the next year, investors may be more “risk-on” and less “risk-off,” meaning that the dollar’s value will decline further.Additionally, because of all of the economic stimulus and seemingly imminent additional stimulus, the dollar’s value has declined and could have more room to fall. With a dovish Fed and record low-interest rates projected to remain this low for at least another two years, the dollar may not appreciate again for a very long time.While the dollar may have more room to fall, this MAY be a good opportunity to buy the world’s reserve currency at a discount - at least for a quick short-term trade. The low RSI reflects this.But I just have too many doubts on the effect of interest rates this low, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation to be remotely bullish on the dollar’s prospects over the next 1-3 years.For now, where possible, HEDGE OR SELL USD exposure.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
The freedom through Silver

The freedom through Silver

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 18.12.2020 19:28
There are many benefits of owning physical Silver. We mentioned in prior chartbooks various benefits for Silver as a wealth preservation method. Another field of assurance is the protection of your privacy through untraceable transactions. What is mentioned less is the independence from the grid. We got used to the conveniences of the modern world, but imagine a scenario where you simply out of electricity. Just the loss of your smartphone can be a dilemma. A step further being that the dependency on a computer should not have that much power you not being able to purchase groceries or gasoline. The freedom through Silver.What we mean to say is that in case of hyperinflation where cash renders its value, Gold and Bitcoin might not be enough of a hedge.Silver, Daily Chart, Last weeks high probability assumption held true:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of December 11th, 2020We posted the above daily chart in last week’s Silver chartbook publication. In addition we guided this anticipated price move manifesting, through our “Silver daily calls” with real-time entries posted in our free Telegram channel. Silver, Daily Chart, A week later:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of December 17th, 2020The market kindly moved as planned. A gentle dip of price shortly after the publication of the chartbook into the extremely low-risk entry zone (support) allowed for core position establishment. Followed by partial profit-taking based on our quad exit strategy to eliminate risk. Allowing (in addition to reload positions) for remainder position size to possibly see higher price levels for further targets.A conservative method for position building and consistent profit-taking.Silver, Weekly Chart, Clean chart:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of December 18th, 2020Stepping away from the noise of smaller time frames and exploring the larger picture, we can see that Silver is trading very clean and precise. As volatile as this instrument is trading on intraday charts it is due to its high liquidity one to be relied on through thorough technical analysis.A closer look at the weekly time frame reveals a steep move up starting in March this year. For a stunning 156 percentage gain. From the high price retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level to build there a eleven-week wide double bottom. This marked the bottom of a bull flag which two weeks later broke through its upper resistance line.Most importantly is the volume analysis of this entire move, which substantiates the newfound support. It is precisely in the middle of the sideways trading zone between US$26 and US$22, at US$24.14. Consequently, we find this to be the most likely bounce point for the next retracement. A low-risk entry point in case you are not positioned just yet. With this precision trading in the present and past, projections into the future become higher probable. “A=B” is as such our next major target point identified. We took the liberty to point out assumed resistance points along the way until we reach this target. Silver prices for possible partial profit-taking in assumed distribution zones.The larger time frame shows a high probability of this last turning point one to be counted on. This warrants for a physical silver acquisition that has a good chance to in time provide for the mentioned conveniences and freedom of being independent. Consequently, there is also a strong likelihood to add to your wealth preservation a degree of wealth growth.The freedom through Silver:What represents the most power of a commodity barter is its accessibility when you need it and the independence within limiting circumstances. With a possibility of rising princes per ounce for precious metals, Gold will be even in small denominations not ideal for smaller transactions. Consequently, Silver takes over a major role. In times where governments can control the internet and natural disasters or cyberattacks can wipe out electricity supplies for lengthy periods, holding physical Silver seems a no-brainer for diversified wealth preservation and day-to-day liberties. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Stocks Fall but Close Week Positive

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.12.2020 16:45
Quick UpdateDear readers, before we get into today’s news and stock analysis and because I’ve been receiving many questions from you, I’d like to first clarify what I mean by BUY, SELL, or HOLD. Here, I am largely referring to outperforming the S&P 500. When the conditions favor adding risk and buying the U.S. market overall, I will be issuing an "alert." I am not sure yet whether I will be moving to entry prices or target prices & stop losses, however, I have discussed this internally with the team at Sunshine Profits. In the current market environment, when fundamentals have essentially fallen to the wayside, I prefer to invest directionally rather than being married to certain levels in the market. In my view, trading with specific figures in mind can hurt long term returns if you do not let your winners run and cut your losers fast. I do update my calls daily, though, and any changes will be highlighted! Thank you again for being such great readers - I truly value your trust. Stay tuned for updates and let me know if you have any other questions!Let’s begin Monday by reviewing what happened at the close of last week.Volatile trading occurred on Friday (Dec. 18), with Congress struggling to close out a stimulus package, causing stocks to slip from record highs.News RecapThe Dow Jones fell 124.32 points, or 0.4%, to 30,179.05. At its session low, the index fell more than 270 points. The S&P 500 also dipped 0.4% and snapped a three-day winning streak. The Nasdaq fell only 0.1%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.41%.While Congress claims to be on the brink of a $900 billion stimulus deal , it is working against time. In public, leaders are speaking optimistically that a deal will pass, however, there are last-minute partisan disputes on direct payments, small business loans, and a boost to unemployment insuranceThere was an unusually large amount of trading volume on Friday (Dec. 18) as Tesla (TSLA) was set to officially join the S&P 500 after the closing bell. Tesla is being added to the index in one fell swoop, marking the largest rebalancing of the S&P 500 in history. After surging 700% in 2020, from day 1, Tesla will be the seventh-largest company in the S&P in terms of market cap.The FDA officially approved Moderna’s vaccine for emergency use. Government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer (PFE) doses already in distribution.Despite Friday’s (Dec. 18) losses, the indices closed out the week with mild gains. The Dow closed up 0.4%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.3%, and the NASDAQ closed up 3.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 continued its strong run as well and gained 2.5% for the week.Meanwhile, the pandemic has reached its darkest days and is hitting unforeseen and unprecedented numbers . The U.S. shattered the previous record of daily deals on Wednesday (Dec. 16), recording over 3,600 deaths. As of Friday (Dec. 18), the country has also now surpassed 17 million confirmed cases, with death totals soaring past 300,000. California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Texas alone reported more than 1,000 deaths in the past week.While the general focus between both investors and analysts appears to be on the long-term potential in 2021, there are certainly short-term concerns. Inevitably, there will be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news. For now, though, the main catalyst is the stimulus package. If a stimulus package is passed before Christmas, the markets could benefit. If it doesn’t, markets will drop. Time is running short and we may be at a fork in the road.According to Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before the mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”However, despite near-term risks, the overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021, especially for the second half of the year. While there may be some short-term worries, the consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain and focus on the longer-term gains. Although the economic recovery could stutter in the early half of the year, the general focus is on the second half of the year when we could potentially return to normal. Many analysts expect double-digit gains to continue in 2021, with strategists in a CNBC survey expecting an average 9.5% rise in 2021 for the S&P 500.Additionally, according to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen, with cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. Sometimes a broad sell-off based on fear or overheating may occur as well. On other days, there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021-related euphoria. Additionally, there will be days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), when markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. But if we get an early Christmas present and a stimulus package passes, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.Despite the optimistic potential, the road towards normalcy will hit inevitable speed bumps. While it is truly hard to say with conviction that a short-term rally or bear market will come, I do believe that some consolidation and a correction could be possible in the short-term on the way towards another strong rally in the second half of 2021.Outside of economic damages and an out-of-control virus, the market itself is flashing potential signs of over-optimism and euphoria. In its most recent survey, for example, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) found that 48.1% of investors identified as being bullish - well above the historical average of 38%. With an overabundance of cocky, euphoric, and optimistic investors, the market becomes more vulnerable to selling pressure. Corrections are very common though. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). Because there has not been one since the lows of March, we could be due for one in the early part of 2021.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction in early 2021 is very possible, but I do not believe, with certainty, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen. Has the Nasdaq Officially Overheated?Don’t ever let anyone tell you “this time is different” if fears of the dot-com bubble are discussed. History repeats itself, especially in markets. I have many concerns about tech valuations and their astoundingly inflated levels. The recent IPOs of DoorDash (DASH) and AirBnB (ABNB) reflect this. I believe that more pullbacks along the lines of Wednesday, December 9th’s session could inevitably come in the short-term.Pay close attention to the RSI. While an overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, I called keeping a very close eye on this for the Nasdaq. The December 9th Nasdaq pullback, after it exceeded a 70 RSI, reflects that.The RSI is now above 70. Monitor this . With unstable volume to start the week on the horizon, as Tesla officially joins the S&P 500, I am calling for some short-term volatility. I did not make a conviction call last week but I am not making that mistake again. Because the RSI is officially above 70, and because I foresee unstable volume thanks to Tesla, take profits and SELL some shares, but do not fully exit .While tech has overheated, there is still some very real long-term optimism based on stimulus hopes and 2021’s potential.Furthermore, on pessimistic days, having Nasdaq exposure is crucial because of the “stay-at-home” trade.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold and Miners Are Not in Santa's Bag

Gold and Miners Are Not in Santa's Bag

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.12.2020 17:05
Do you feel the Christmas spirit when it comes to the yellow metal and miners? Because we don’t. Multiple signs over the past few days point to bearish weeks ahead for gold and the gold miners. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - the most liquid vehicle for investors and traders to gain exposure to gold mining companies – is indicating that things are only about to go downhill from here and a lack of action from options traders only serves to confirm that.Despite rallying by 8.7% over a three-day stretch, the GDX traded sharply lower on Friday (Dec. 18), and yet again, failed to recapture its 50-day moving average (unlike gold). Moreover, GDX also closed below its early-December intraday high, while the GLD ETF remained above its analogous price level.The relative weakness (miners underperforming gold) supports the following bearish thesis:While gold corrected about 61.8% of its November decline, gold miners declined only half thereof. In other words, they underperformed gold, which is bearish.The GDX ETF moved to its 50-day moving average – the level that kept its rallies in check since early October. Can miners move above it? Sure, they did that in early November, but is it likely that such a move would be confirmed or followed by more significant strength? Absolutely not. Let’s keep in mind two things:Back in early November, the GDX moved above the 50-day MA, when gold did the same thing, so if the GDX wanted to rally above this MA, it “should have” done so yesterday. It was too weak to do it.The early-November move above the 50-day MA was invalidated in just 2 days.Moreover, please note that the performance of the GDX ETF from late-November to now looks like an ABC correction. This is not a bearish sign on its own, but it fits other indications described today and this week in general. It increases the chance that the top is already in or very, very close.Another important development was the spike in volume during last Thursday’s (Dec. 17) upswing. It resulted in the largest number of GDX shares traded since the November 6 top (on days when GDX is positive), and we all know what happened to GDX after November 6 (As a point of reference, the four other highest volume days since the November 6 top coincided with declines of 6.13%, 2.74%, 3.40% and 4.29%).In addition, options traders aren’t buying GDX’s rally. Despite put options (which profit when GDX declines) trading relatively flat, call options (which profit when GDX rallies) traded at a significant discount last Friday. Please take a look at the table below for details (courtesy of Yahoo! Finance)The lack of demand among options traders is another signal that last week’s rally is unlikely to continue.Lastly, I’d like to share with you some thoughts on price targets.How high could miners go? Perhaps only to the previous lows and by moving to them, they could verify them as resistance . The previous – October – low is at $36.01 in intraday terms and at $36.52 in terms of the daily closing prices. No matter which level we take, it’s not significantly above the pre-market price of $35.76, thus it seems that adjusting the trading position in order to limit the exposure for the relatively small part of the correction is not a good idea from the risk to reward perspective – one might miss the sharp drop that follows. Please note how sharp the mid-November decline was initially.That’s almost exactly what happened – the GDX ETF rallied to $36.92 in intraday terms, and to $36.50 in terms of the daily closing prices. The breakdown was verified in terms of the daily closing prices, which is more important than what happened in intraday terms.Consequently, the outlook is bearish as it seems that miners are ready for another move lower. There’s still a chance that the precious metals sector would move higher based on a possible short-term decline in the USD Index, but this chance is slim, especially given today’s pre-market decline in both the USD Index and gold.The next downside target for the GDX ETF is the February top in terms of the closing prices – $31.05.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
With Dovish Powell, Can Gold Shine Again?

With Dovish Powell, Can Gold Shine Again?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.12.2020 13:09
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded dovish during his press conference on December 16, where he gave a market update after the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. The Fed will remain accommodative for a long time, which should support gold prices.Last week was full of important events. First, both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines received emergency-use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration . In consequence, the first COVID-19 vaccination in the United States has already taken place, which is great news for America, as it marks the beginning of the end of the pandemic .It’s high time for that! As the chart below shows, the U.S. has already lost about 314,000 people to the coronavirus.And what is disturbing, the current wave of infections doesn’t look like it’s going to end quickly. As one can see in the chart below, the number of new daily official cases is still above 200,000 – actually, it has recently jumped to about 250,000.So, the beginning of vaccine distribution is the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel that brings hope for a return to normalcy in 2021. It’s important to note that, contrary to the groundbreaking November news about the efficacy of the vaccines, the approval of vaccines and first injections didn’t plunge gold prices. This suggests that the bridge to normalcy built by the vaccines has already been priced in. That’s good news for the gold bulls .Second, there was renewed optimism about the fresh fiscal support . Indeed, there are higher odds now than at least about $750 billion in aid will be passed and implemented by the end of 2020. Theoretically, the fiscal stimulus is considered to be helpful for the economy, so it should be negative for gold, however, the price of the yellow metal may actually go up amid concerns about rising fiscal deficits , public debt , and inflation .Powell’s Press Conference and GoldThird, the last FOMC meeting took place this year. I’ve already analyzed it in last Thursday’s (Dec. 17) edition of the Fundamental Gold Report , but then I focused on the monetary policy statement and the fresh dot-plot . As a reminder, the Fed tied tapering in its quantitative easing to the progress toward reaching full employment and inflation at two percent, while the economic projections were more optimistic, but they nevertheless didn’t see any interest rate hikes until the end of 2023.However, it was Powell’s press conference that was really crucial, so let’s take a closer look at it. The Fed Chair sounded dovish, as he emphasized the U.S. central bank’s commitment to maintaining its very accommodative stance. In particular, Powell reiterated that the Fed will not hike interest rates or reduce its asset purchase program anytime soon. Actually, Powell said that the bank will normalize its monetary policy only after reaching the maximum employment and price stability:our guidance for both interest rates and asset purchases will keep monetary policy accommodative until our maximum employment and price stability goals are achieved. And that's a powerful message. So substantial further progress means what it says. It means we'll be looking for employment to be substantially closer to assessments of its maximum level, and inflation to be substantially closer to our 2 percent longer run goal, before we start making adjustments to our purchases.In other words, Powell clearly stated that he will keep his foot on the gas until at least 2023, and that he won’t pull the brakes even if inflation increases. This is because Powell believes that although inflation may rebound in 2021, it will be a temporary increase, and the Fed now has a flexible average inflation targeting framework, so it wants inflation to overshoot the target:What we’re saying is we're going to keep policy highly accommodative until the expansion is well down the tracks. And we’re not going to preemptively raise rates until we see inflation actually reaching 2 percent and being on track to exceed 2 percent. That's a very strong commitment. And we think that's the right place to beThis means that in 2021 the Fed is likely to be behind the curve. Higher inflation with the nominal interest rates unchanged imply lower real interest rates – further declines in these rates should push the gold prices up . Moreover, Powell will announce in advance when he wants to take his foot off the gas pedal and start reducing the amount of monetary accommodation. The Fed clearly doesn’t want the replay of the 2013 taper tantrum :And when we see ourselves on a path to achieve that goal, then we will say so undoubtedly well in advance of any time when we would actually consider gradually tapering the pace of purchases.Implications for GoldWhat does it all mean for gold prices? Well, although the Fed did not expand its monetary accommodation in December, Powell was really dovish and he pointed out that the U.S. central bank would continue its current easy stance “as long as it takes until the job is well and truly done.” Gold welcomed Powell’s remarks and gained nearly $40 on Thursday, as the chart below shows.It makes sense – after all, the Fed promised that its monetary policy would remain highly accommodative for a long time. So, although the potential for further accommodation and, thus, a great rally in gold prices is limited (at least until we see a further weakening in the US dollar or an increases in inflation and decrease in the real interest rates), the risk of a sudden tightening in the Fed’s monetary policy , that could plunge the gold prices, has diminished. Therefore, gold could shine again – at least until the markets start to worry about the normalization of monetary policy and start to forecast increases in the interest rates.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.
Bitcoin Rally Similarities – Is This The Peak?

Bitcoin Rally Similarities – Is This The Peak?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 23.12.2020 02:12
The recent rally in Bitcoin is strangely similar to the rally that took place in 2017.  Although the range of price throughout the rally is somewhat different, the structure of price throughout the rally phase is very similar.  Our researchers believe this similarity suggests a peak may be forming in Bitcoin and the big volume on Monday, December 21, 2020, may have represented a “blow-off peak” in price.BITCOIN 2017 PEAK STRUCTUREThe following Weekly Bitcoin chart highlights the three rally phases that took place before the peak level was reached in December 2017. Pay very close attention to the structure you are seeing on this chart and the highlights we've made to help you understand how the price structure is being mirrored in the current rally phase.Initially, we saw a $2100 rally in Bitcoin which setup a peak near $2980 that initiated near March 26, 2017 (the first Green Arrow on this chart).  After, a mild correction took place which setup a deep trough on the RSI indicator (in the lower pane of this chart).  Notice how this deeper low level in RSI set up a momentum base for future trends.  Then, a second rally phase pushed Bitcoin prices higher to $4979 – spanning a rally phase of nearly $3050 (the second Green Arrow). This second rally initiated near July 2017 and was followed by another brief consolidation period.  Lastly, a breakout rally initiated in October 2017 and reached the peak price level on December 17, 2017 near $19,666.Next, pay attention to how the end of the rally phase broke below the support channel on the RSI (in RED) and began a excess phase contraction of over $16,000 (-84%) that lasted until December 2018 (near $3135). Are we witnessing a mirror example of this same type of price action in the current Bitcoin rally?BITCOIN 2020 PEAK STRUCTUREThis next current Bitcoin Weekly chart, below, highlights the similarities between the 2017 rally and the current rally phase.  Although there are minor price range variances related to the size and scope of the different price wave structures, the technical setup is almost identical to the 2017 rally phase.First, the bottom after the COVID-19 decline setup on March 13, 2020 – only about 14 trading days away from the March 26, 2017 bottom.  Next, the initial rally in 2017 consisted of a $2082 (+233%) rally phase whereas the current rally from the March 13 lows consisted of a $6750 rally (+186%) in price.  We believe the similarities in the rally percent ranges align close enough to consider both initial rally phases similar.Next, a moderate price decline setup after that first rally phase which setup a deep RSI low level in July 2020. Remember, in 2017, this first contraction phase ended in July 2017 also – just an odd similarity, or is this something more critical to understand?Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!After this contraction phase ended, in July 2020, another rally phase initiated pushing Bitcoin prices higher by about $3225 (+35.75%) which ended in August 2020.  In 2017, this second rally phase consisted of a $3061 price rally (+166%) which ended on September 15, 2017.  In this instance, we are focused on the similarities in the price ranges of these second rallies and the dates of these rallies.  The actual price ranges of these second phase rallies are very similar and the start and end dates of these rallies are strangely similar – even though the end dates are more than 30 days apart.Lastly, the final rally phase in 2017 initiated near the end of September 2017 and really broke-out in October 12, 2017 – then peaked about 60 days later near December 17, 2017.  The current rally phase in 2020 initiated near a low price level on September 8, 2020 and generated a break-out rally on October 20, 2020 – only 8 trading days difference between the 2020 breakout bar and the 2017 breakout bar.The final phase rally in 2020 has, so far, consisted of a $14,435 price rally (+146%) whereas the 2017 final phase rally consisted of a $16,704 price rally (+553%) and the current 2020 final rally phase has moved $14,435 (+146%).  Even though one could argue the price ranges and percent ranges are far enough away from one another to qualify as a “mirror” of the two examples, we feel the similarities are very difficult to dismiss – even if this final phase rally size/scope is 14% smaller than the one in 2017.Notice how the RSI technical pattern has continued to set up almost exactly like the 2017 rally phase setup – an initial low price level set in July acts as critical support while the subsequent rallies setup an upward sloping support channel – which will eventually be broken. Does this mean that Bitcoin has reached its peak levels – just like in 2017?  Are the similarities between the December 17, 2017 price peak and the December 20, 2020 price peak simply an odd curiosity or aligning dates, price phases, and similar structures or is it something more ominous?Time will tell if our research plays out as we suspect.  We are simply pointing out that similarities between the 2017 rally and the current rally are strangely aligning to suggest the current peak price level in Bitcoin may be ending soon.  It is a very rare situation where price triggers and trends align so closely to a previous trend that spanned nearly 9 months – but we do understand that these types of price patterns do exist.  Some people have built complete trading systems around historical patterns that repeat with a high degree of accuracy over the past 15 to 20+ years.  So it is not uncommon for these types of patterns to exist.  We find it incredibly interesting to see this type of extended price pattern aligning so closely to the 2017 setup in Bitcoin.If a future selloff does happen – it will be an incredible example of a “mirror-like” setup taking place on very similar dates nearly 3 years apart.  Keep this article in your focus as we move closer to the start of 2021.  Remember, the big breakdown in Bitcoin in 2017  first took place on December 22, 2017, then broke down further on January 16,2017.  Those might be very important dates in the future.Our proprietary BAN (Best Asset Now) strategy allows us to know which assets are potentially the best performers in any type of market trend.  If you want to learn more about how we can help you with our proprietary tools and strategy then go to www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more. Sign up today to get my daily pre-market analysis of the markets that walks you through the technical indicators of the major asset classes. Less than two trading sessions before the holidays - stay healthy!
Stock Pick Update: Dec. 23 – Dec. 29, 2020

Stock Pick Update: Dec. 23 – Dec. 29, 2020

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.12.2020 12:29
Header: Which stocks could magnify S&P 500’s gains in case it rallies? Take a look at a part of our Stock Pick Update. We have included two Technology stocks and one Energy stock this time.In the last five trading days (December 16 – December 22) the broad stock market has extended its short-term consolidation following record-breaking run-up. The S&P 500 index reached new record high of 3,726.70 on Friday, before retracing most of last week’s advances.The S&P 500 has lost 0.24% between December 16 open and December 22 close. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have lost 0.04%. Stock picks were relatively slightly stronger than the broad stock market last week. Our long stock picks have lost 3.94%, however short stock picks have resulted in a gain of 3.86%. Short stock picks’ performance outpaced the benchmark return on the downside, but the whole portfolio followed broad stock market very closely.There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.Our last week’s portfolio result:Long Picks (December 16 open – December 22 close % change): XOM (-5.74%), COP (-8.91%), WFC (-2.29%), BK (+0.02%), FB (-2.79%)Short Picks (December 16 open – December 22 close % change): DUK (-3.10%), EVRG (-4.03%), SPG (-5.23%), CBRE (-5.37%), KO (-1.57%)Average long result: -3.94%, average short result: +3.86%Total profit (average): -0.24%Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, December 23 – Tuesday, December 29 period.We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (December 23) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (December 29).We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:buys: 2 x Technology, 2 x Energy, 1 x Financialssells: 2 x Utilities, 2 x Real Estate, 1 x Consumer StaplesBuy CandidatesCRM Salesforce.com, Inc. - TechnologyStock remains above its short-term upward trend lineUptrend continuation playThe support level is at $220 and resistance level is at $240-250 (short-term target profit level)NVDA NVIDIA Corp. – TechnologyStock trades above medium-term upward trend linePossible breakout above short-term consolidationThe support level is at $490-500 and resistance level is at $550PSX Phillips 66 – EnergyPossible short-term bull flag pattern – uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $60 and resistance level is at $70Summing up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Technology and Energy sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .Thank you.Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *DisclaimerAll essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold – The bull market continues

Gold – The bull market continues

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 23.12.2020 13:04
Precious metal and crypto analysis exclusively for Celtic Gold on 22.12.2020After four corrective months and a final bloodbath towards the end of November, it looks as if the low is in! Gold – The bull market continues.ReviewOn August 7th, the price of gold hit a new all-time high of US$2.075 . At that time we warned of the temporary end of the gold rush. As a result, over the past four months, there has been tough and stretched correction, with several pullbacks towards the support zone between US$1.850 and US$1.865.By November 9th, gold prices had just recovered back to US$1,965 when the final bloodbath phase began quite abruptly. In the following days, with their fifth attempt the bears were finally able to break through the aforementioned support zone, forcing the gold market into a small panic sell-off. After all, this sell-off ended on November 30th with an intraday double low at US$1,764.Since 9th of November Mondays have become quite challenging for goldSince then, there has been a clear turnaround over the last three weeks. Quickly, the bulls staged an initial recovery to US$1,876 before gold came back down to test US$1,820 one more time. Since the FED press conference last Wednesday, gold bulls came roaring back pushing prices towards US,1906 further upwards. At the start of this trading week, however, as it happened most Mondays in the last eight weeks, gold got strongly pushed lower after reaching new highs at US$1,905. The sharp slide saw gold tumbling down testing its solid support at US$1,855 once again. In the meantime, prices have recovered that vicious attack and are trading around US$1,875 trying to stage another attack towards US$1,900.Overall, the turnaround is not yet completely in dry cloths, but with a very high probability the bull market in the precious metals sector is now starting again fully.Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of December 21st, 2020. Source: TradingviewWith a low at US$1,764, the timely forecasted correction bottomed most likely on November 30th. Since then, a recovery wave of more than US$140 has already been seen. The decisive element on the weekly chart now is the downtrend trend line of those last four months. Currently, this downtrend trend sits around US$1,915 and is moving a bit lower every day.The mere sight of this strong line of resistance apparently caused a sudden panic attack among the gold bulls at the start of this week. Hence, gold prices briefly went off from US$1,905 towards US$1,855 within a few minutes. However, we expect a first real test of this resistance line above US$1,900 over the next few days and weeks.Oversold weekly stochastic points to a contrarian opportunityOverall, the chances for a breakthrough during the next one or two months are also very good, and thus further price increases until spring are highly likely. In particular, the new buying signal from the stochastic oscillator looks pretty promising. Since the great panic in the summer of 2018 and the beginning of the fulminant uptrend in the gold market (starting from a low at US$1,160 in August 2018), the stochastic oscillator delivered a similarly oversold setup only in spring 2019 and November 2019. Each of those two setups were a great contrarian buy opportunity as each time followed a very strong rally in the gold market.In summary, we can assume the trend reversal for the gold market. Hence, over the next two to three months gold, silver and mining stocks should all move higher. A rally towards the November high at US$1,965 would be the absolute minimum for gold. More likely, however, would be a rally back above the psychological round number at US$2,000, including an extension towards US$2,015 and maybe even US$2,050. Nevertheless, this uptrend might present itself somewhat jerky and unround. Sharp pullbacks that emerge again and again will probably make life not that easy for trend-followers.A new all time is realistic in mid-summerOf course, a new all-time high above US$2,075 could also happen until early spring, given the exponentially increasing currency creations worldwide. Yet, it is not the primary scenario. More realistic would be a new all-time high during the second seasonally strong phase somewhere in midsummer.Gold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of December 21st, 2020. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, the resistance zone between US$1,900 and US$1,920 becomes more obvious. This zone will most likely keep the gold bulls busy for a few more weeks. Moreover, as the stochastic oscillator on the daily chart has already reached its overbought zone, expecting a trading range between US$1,850 and US$1,920 likely well into mid of January is crucial.The support zone between US$1,850 and US$1,865 now has a very important catch-up function. If, contrary to expectations, this support does not hold, a further test of the upper edge of the medium-term uptrend channel around US$1,820 would also be acceptable. The 200-day moving avarage (US$1,816) is also approaching this price level. However, gold prices should not fall much lower, otherwise the bullish scenario will have to be questioned.In the conclusion, the daily chart is still bullish. An attack towards downtrend line slightly above US$1,900 is the most likely scenario in the short-term. However, this Monday’s sharp sell-off gives already a taste of the strength of this downtrend line. Pullbacks towards US$1,850 to US$1,865 and in particular another test of the 200-day moving average around US$1,820 would be another good entry opportunity. Only below US$1,800 will the bull market be in jeopardy. On the other side, the breakout above US$1,920 confirms the bullish case and opens up further potential towards US$1,955 and US$1,965.Commitments of Traders for Gold – The bull market continuesCommitments of Traders for Gold as of December 15th, 2020. Source: CoT Price ChartsAccording to the lastest CoT-report, the commercial short position increased again slightly. Overall, however, the constellation of the last one and a half years has hardly changed at all as the commercial traders continue to hold an extremely high short position. This accumulated  position currently sits at 306.342 short contracts.Commitments of Traders for Gold as of December 15th, 2020. Source: SentimentraderOverall, and on its own alone, the weekly CoT-report continues to provide a clear sell signal for gold. This has been the case for more than a year already and continues to signal a great need for correction.Sentiment: Gold – The bull market continuesSentiment Optix for Gold as of December 18th, 2020. Source: SentimentraderWith the sharp sell-off until the end of November, the precious metals sector was at least partially cleaned up with a final bloodbath lasting several days. The great euphoria of the summer has thus turned into the opposite. Although the quantitative sentiment indicators did not signal any real panic, those low levels of optimism should still have been sufficient for a sustained bottom and turnaround.BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR GlobalInterestingly enough, November saw exorbitant outflows from the gold ETFs. Here, huge quantities of gold were thrown onto the market in a panic attack with the push of a mouse click. And this despite the fact that the price of gold simply went through a normal and expected correction since the summer. This chart clearly speaks for a cleanup of the weak hands!Overall, the sentiment analysis thus provides a good starting point for the first quarter of 2021. In the short-term, however, optimism is already a little too high. The path towards a higher gold price should therefore not be straightforward in the next few weeks but might be interrupted again and again by treacherous pullbacks.Seasonality: Gold – The bull market continuesSeasonality for Gold as of December 18th, 2020. Source: SeasonaxSeasonal-wise, all traffic lights are green over the next two months, as the price of gold has statistically been mostly able to rise until mid to end of February and often into spring. Hence, from the seasonal perspective, caution is recommended from early march onwards.Overall, seasonality these days provides a strong buy signal.Sound Money: Bitcoin/Gold-RatioWith prices of US$23,400 for one Bitcoin and US$1,865 for one troy ounce of gold, the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio is currently 12,54. That means you have to pay more than 12 ounces of gold for one single bitcoin! In other words, a fine ounce of gold currently costs only 0,079 Bitcoin, which means another loss of more than 30% for gold against bitcoin. Bitcoin has been mercilessly outperforming the price of gold for the last several months.Generally, you should be invested in both: precious metals and bitcoins. Buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in the two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals (preferably physically), while in cryptos and especially in Bitcoin, one should hold 1% to 5%. Paul Tudor Jones holds a little less than 2% of his assets in Bitcoin. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, you can certainly allocate higher percentages to Bitcoin and maybe other Altcoins on an individual basis. For the average investor, who usually is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is already a lot!“Opposites compliment. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the digital aspect of bitcoin (BTC-USD) you have a complimentary unit of a true safe haven in the 21st century. You want to own both!”– Florian GrummesPatience is recommended if you are not yet (fully) invested in BitcoinOnly a significant pullback in the next one to four months towards and maybe even below the old all-time high at around US$20,000 would result in another opportunity to enter or allocate into bitcoin.Macro update and conclusion: Gold – The bull market continuesTavi Costa, Crescant Capital, December 20th,2020.For almost 16 months, the balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) in the US has been exploding. In recent weeks, a new all-time high has been reached. Hence, the devaluation of the US-dollar (=fiat money) is therefore unabatedly continuing and is expected to accelerate further next year.Tavi Costa, Crescant Capital, December 22nd,2020.Over US$1 trillion in US Treasuries will be due in the next 15 days alone! The current pace of currency creation of around US$80 billion per month will not be enough, as much more US Treasuries in the order of US$5.8 trillion will be due curing the course of next year. US central bankers are caught in a trap and will have to create ever-increasing amounts of currency out of nowhere.Tavi Costa, Crescant Capital, December 18th,2020.Logically, therefore, inflation expectations in the US as well as worldwide are rising sharply.Tavi Costa, Crescant Capital, December 22nd,2020.At the same time, commodity prices are also on the verge of breaking out above their 12-year downtrend line and are expected to continue to rise strongly during the course of 2021.MoneyWeek, December 4th,2020.Not surprisingly, investors and financial market participants are therefore in a roaring 20s mood!  For the broad population, however, this is a catastrophic development, as inflation will devalue their monthly salary more and more quickly.For precious metals and the price of gold instead, this is the best of all worlds. At least until the spring, a recovery rally is expected for gold towards US$2,000 and silver towards US$30. Hence, another buying opportunities would present itself should gold drop one more time towards US$1,850 and US$1,820, respectively. Following the current “tax loss-selling” and the start of 2021, mining stocks should take over the lead in the sector again and could then outperform gold and silver until spring. Forecasting the full year 2021, silver in particular should be able to benefit from the rising inflation. Over the course of the year, a test of the all-time high around US$50 is conceivable. In midsummer at the latest, the price of gold should also be able to break out above US$2,100.Overall, silver and bitcoin remain the dream-team for the accelerating crack-up boom.Source: www.celticgold.eu
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Stimulus Hopes Fail to Rally Markets

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.12.2020 15:59
The S&P 500 closed down for the third consecutive day (Dec. 22), despite Congress’s long-overdue approval of an economic stimulus package.News RecapThe Dow Jones declined 200.94 points, or 0.7%, to 30,015.51. The S&P 500 closed down for a third consecutive day and fell 0.2%. Reflecting a return to the “stay-at-home” tech trade, the Nasdaq gained 0.5% on the day (Dec. 22). The small-cap Russell 2000 index managed to outperform yet again, rising 1.01%.Congress finally voted on and approved a $900 billion stimulus package to aid struggling Americans. Attached to this bill was also a $1.4 trillion measure to fund the government through Sept. 30. President Trump is expected to sign the bill into law within the next few days.A mutant strain of COVID-19 discovered in the UK weighed on markets for a second consecutive day. While the vaccine(s) could still be effective on this strain, the strain appears to be more contagious than others. The discovery of this virus strain has caused stricter lockdown measures and travel restrictions worldwide.Travel stocks were the laggards of the day due to fears of the new strain of COVID-19. American Airlines (AAL) fell 3.9% and United (UAL) dropped 2.5%. Cruise lines all fell as well. Carnival (CCL) fell nearly 6%, Royal Caribbean (RCL) dropped nearly 3%, and Norwegian (NCL) plummeted 6.9%Apple (AAPL) led the Nasdaq higher as it jumped 2.9% due to investor excitement about their EV plans to challenge Tesla (TSLA) by 2024Mixed economic data came in on Tuesday (Dec. 22). The final reading on Q3’s GDP growth found that the US GDP grew 33.4% on an annualized basis, compared to the estimated 33.1%. On the other hand, US consumer confidence fell for the second month in a row and missed expectations - despite vaccine optimism.COVID-19 has now killed over 318,000 Americans (and counting). The CDC announced that this is now the deadliest year in American history as total deaths are expected to top 3 million for the first time. Deaths are also expected to jump 15% from the previous year. This would mark the largest single-year percentage leap since 1918, when WWI and fatalities from the Spanish Flu Pandemic caused deaths to rise an estimated 46%.Markets have officially stumbled before Christmas and experienced a predictable tug-of-war between good news and bad news. While the general focus of both investors and analysts has appeared to be the long-term potential of 2021, there are some very concerning short-term headwinds.Although there was some anticipation that a stimulus deal could send stocks higher in the near-term, investors may be simply taking profits before the year’s end and rebalancing for 2021. On the other hand, it is very possible that the stimulus package was “too little too late,” and is being overshadowed by a more contagious strain of COVID-19 discovered over the past weekend in the U.K.While nobody predicted a renegade mutant virus weighing on market sentiment, short-term battles between optimism and pessimism were quite predictable.According to a note released on Monday (Dec. 21) from Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli“The market has been in a tug-of-war between the very grim near-term COVID backdrop and the increasingly hopeful medium/long-term outlook (driven by vaccines) – the latter set of forces are more powerful in aggregate, but on occasion, the market decides to focus on the former, and stocks suffer as a result.”Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of market strategists, including myself, are bullish on equities for 2021. It might just be a bit of a bumpy road getting there. I believe that a correction and some consolidation could be very likely in the short-term, on the way towards another strong rally in the second half of 2021. While it is hard to say with conviction WHEN we could see a correction, I believe that the market’s behavior as of late could be a potential preview of what’s to come between now and the end of Q1 2020. There is optimistic potential, but I believe a potential 5% pullback before the year’s end is possible, as well as a minimum 10% correction before the end of Q1 2020.According to Jonathan Golub , Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, choppiness in the economy and markets in the coming months could be expected before a surge in consumer spending by mid-2021. Golub said, “I don’t think that there’s a smooth, easy straight-line story on this...I think for the next three or four months, the reopening process is going to be sloppy.”I believe that the S&P’s three-day losing streak could be an ominous sign of what’s to come in the near-term. I do believe though that this is healthy and could be a good thing.Before Monday’s (Dec. 21) session, I had warned that the market was flashing signs of over-optimism and euphoria. In its most recent survey, for example, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) found that 48.1% of investors identified as being bullish - well above the historical average of 38%.A correction could be just what this market needs. Corrections also happen way more often than people realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). I believe we are overdue for one because there has not been a correction since the lows of March. This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what I believe will be a great second half of the year.The mid-term and long-term optimism are very real, despite the near-term risks. The passage of the stimulus package only solidifies the robust vaccine-induced tailwinds entering 2021, specifically for small-cap value stocks.In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, such as Tuesday (Dec. 22), the “pandemic” market trend will happen - cyclical and COVID-19 recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. On other days, a broad sell-off based on virus fears may occur as well. Additionally, there will also be days where there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021 related euphoria. And finally, there will be days (and in my opinion, this will be most trading days), that will see markets trading largely mixed, sideways, and reflecting uncertainty.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. But I do not believe, with conviction, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Please do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! I’m always happy to hear from you. DrivingSmall-Caps (IWM)The Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the larger-cap indices and gained 1.01% on Tuesday (Dec. 22). Despite the profit-taking and negative sentiment during Tuesday’s (Dec. 22) session, small-caps didn’t get the memo.I do love small-cap stocks in the long-term and this small-cap rally is more encouraging than the “stay-at-home” stock rallies from April/May. This is a bullish sign for long-term economic recovery and shows that investors are optimistic that a vaccine will return life to relative normalcy by mid-2021.I do have some concerns about overheating in the short-term though. As I mentioned before, I believe that the S&P’s losing streak is only a preview of what could come in the next 1-3 months.According to the chart above for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , it becomes pretty evident that small-cap stocks have overheated in the short-term. Stocks won’t always go up, but the IWM’s trajectory since November has been essentially vertical. The ETF keeps hitting record highs while the RSI keeps overinflating way past overbought levels as the volume shows instability.Since November, the Russell index has been on a run nothing short of astounding. Just look how the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) compares to the ETFs tracking the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq in that time frame. Since November, the IWM has risen nearly 28% and has at least doubled the returns of the ETFs tracking the other major indices.Although the Russell index is composed mostly of small-cap cyclical stocks dependent on the recovery of the broader economy and may be more adversely affected on “sell-the-news” kind of days, its hot streak since November has seemingly not cooled off as much as other indices and sectors.But I believe this will eventually happen in the short-term, and I hope it does for a long-term buying opportunity.In the short-term, small-cap stocks may have overheated and could experience the greatest volatility. SELL and take short-term profits if you can, but do not fully exit positions .If there is a pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery. DivingUS Dollar ($USD)If the dollar rallies at all again soon, do not be fooled.Ever since I called the dollar’s rally past the 91 level two Wednesdays ago (Dec. 9) a mirage, the dollar has declined by 1.25%.I believed it to be “fool's gold” then and I believe any subsequent rally that could come will be “fool’s gold” too.I still am calling out the dollar’s weakness after several weeks, despite its low levels. I expect the decline to continue as well thanks to a dovish Fed.The world’s reserve currency is still trading below 90 and has not traded this low since April 2018. Joe Manimbo , a senior analyst at Western Union Business Solutions, seemingly agrees with me as well and said that “the latest blow to the dollar came from the Fed, which vowed not to touch policy even if the outlook for the U.S. economy brightens as it now expects.”Since hitting a nearly 3-year high on March 20th, the dollar has plunged nearly 13% while emerging markets and other currencies continue to strengthen.On days when COVID-19 fears outweigh any other positive sentiments, dollar exposure might be good to have since it is a safe haven. But in my view, you can do a whole lot better than the US dollar for safety.I have too many doubts on the effect of interest rates this low for this long, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation to be remotely bullish on the dollar’s prospects over the next 1-3 years. Meanwhile, the US has $27 trillion of debt, and it’s not going down anytime soon.Additionally, according to The Sevens Report , if the dollar falls below 89.13, this could potentially raise the prospect of a further 10.5% decline to the next support level of 79.78 reached in April 2014After briefly rising above an oversold RSI of 30 last week, the dollar’s RSI is now at an alarmingly low 27.87. The dollar is also significantly trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.While the dollar may have more room to fall, this MAY be a good opportunity to buy the world’s reserve currency at a discount as the RSI is oversold. But I just feel you can do a whole lot better than the USD right now.I’m not a crypto guy either myself, but Bitcoin’s run compared to the dollar’s disastrous 2020 has to really make you think sometimes….For now, where possible, HEDGE OR SELL USD exposure.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
As USDX is Poised to Pop, What Happens to Gold?

As USDX is Poised to Pop, What Happens to Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.12.2020 16:50
After awakening from its slumber last week, the USD Index may be in the early innings of a short-term breakout. Bursting with energy, the dollar basket closed (on Dec. 22) above its declining resistance line (although more data is needed to confirm a larger move).And to quote Francis Bacon, because “we rise to great heights by a winding staircase of small steps,” Tuesday’s ‘small step’ may be the beginning of an epic comeback.Please see below:In this week’s early trading, the USDX moved lower and then rallied back up, after touching its previous resistance line, which now appears to have turned into support. Despite the initial decline, the USDX is now more or less where it had started this week’s trading. Its ability to reverse the initial decline appears bullish.While the USDX traded lower-to-flat from Dec. 23 – 25, the price action still follows a familiar playbook: In 2018, the USDX dipped below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level before circling back with a vengeance (The initial bottom occurred in early 2018, with the final bottom not far behind.) Moreover, the 2018 USDX bottom also marked the 2018 top in gold, silver and the gold miners (depicted in charts 2 and 3 below).I previously wrote that the USDX was repeating its 2017 – 2018 decline to some extent. The starting points of the declines (horizontal red line) as well as the final high of the biggest correction are quite similar. The difference is that the recent correction was smaller than it was in 2017.Since back in 2018, the USDX’s bottom was at about 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the size of the correction, we could expect something similar to happen this time. Applying the above to the current situation would give us the proximity of the 90-level as the downside target.“So, shouldn’t gold soar in this case?” – would be a valid question to ask.Well, if the early 2018 pattern was being repeated, then let’s check what happened to precious metals and gold stocks at that time.In short, they moved just a little higher after the USDX’s breakdown. I marked the moment when the U.S. currency broke below its previous (2017) bottom with a vertical line, so that you can easily see what gold, silver, and GDX (proxy for mining stocks) were doing at that time. They were just before a major top. The bearish action that followed in the short term was particularly visible in the case of the miners.Consequently, even if the USD Index is to decline further from here, then the implications are not particularly bullish for the precious metals market.And as we approach the New Year and beyond, I expect a similar pattern to emerge.Why so?First, the USDX is after a long-term, more-than-confirmed breakout. This means that the long-term trend for the U.S. currency is up.Second, the amount of capital that was shorting the USDX was excessive even before the most recent decline. This means that the USD Index is not likely to keep declining for much longer.In addition, after last week’s drawdown in gold and the gold miners, the sun appears to be setting on the yellow metal. As ‘buy the dip’ morphs into ‘sell the rally,’ gold’s downtrend is likely to resume. Furthermore, the 2018 analogue signals that the SPX’s (S&P 500 Index) days are also numbered (If you analyze the chart above, you can see that the USDX bottom coincided with the SPX top.)Fundamentally, the USDX is also poised to pop.On Tuesday (Dec. 22), I highlighted the misguided narrative plaguing the U.S. dollar. In short:With liquidity spigots on full blast around the world, the U.S. isn’t the only region expanding its money supply (And remember, currencies trade on a relative basis.) In fact, the European Central Bank (ECB ) has more assets on its balance sheet than the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED).And after another update, the ECB’s spending spree has now reached a record €7 trillion (As a point of reference, the Dec. 22 ECB chart was relative to the FED, so both balance sheets were presented in U.S. dollars. The chart below depicts the ECB’s balance sheet in euros).Week-over-week, the ECB’s balance sheet increased by €59 billion. But the real story? The ECB’s total assets now equal 69% of Eurozone GDP – nearly double the FED’s 35%. So while EUR/USD clawed back some of its early-week losses (after the EU and the U.K. reached a Brexit agreement), its prior three-day downtrend (Dec. 18 – 22) is likely to continue (Remember, movement in the euro accounts for nearly 58% of the movement in the USDX.)Consequently, the implications for the precious metals market are not as bearish as everyone and their brother seems to tell you. Conversely, the forex market could provide the PMs and mining stocks with a substantial bearish push in the coming weeks – or even days.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Dollar rises as Trump signs Stimulus bill

Dollar rises as Trump signs Stimulus bill

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.12.2020 08:56
EURUSD Heading LowerThe euro currency attempted to rise higher but gave back the intraday gains. The rebound off the 1.2177 level of support was met with resistance from the trendline.With prices heading lower, the previous support level near 1.2177 comes under pressure.The Stochastics oscillator is also signaling a hidden bearish divergence. This could mean that price action will drift lower if the support breaks.Below 1.2177, the next key area of support will be the 1.2050 level.Given that this support area was not firmly tested before, we expect to see a possible test of this level.GBPUSD Gives Back Gains As Brexit Euphoria FadesThe British pound sterling is down over 0.6% on Monday. The declines come following last week’s rebound above the 1.3506 level of support.But as the trade deal euphoria fades, prices are drifting lower. As a result, the cable is likely to continue pushing lower.The next key level of support comes in at 1.3210. There is a possibility that the GBPUSD could establish minor support ahead of the decline to 1.3210.To the upside, a rebound could see the 1.3506 level being tested once again.If resistance forms here, then we expect to see a possible confirmation of prices heading lower.WTI Crude Oil Could Likely Form A TopOil prices maintained their bullish continuation with prices rising in early Monday trading. However, after rising to intraday highs of 48.94, the commodity gave back the gains, forming a lower high.If prices break down below the pivot lows of 47.76, then this will confirm that a top is in place. The next support level of interest comes near the 47.17 level.Below this minor support, oil prices could be on track to post further declines.The support area near 45.26 will come into the picture.The Stochastics oscillator is overbought at the moment, validating the short term move lower.Gold Prices Trade Flat Near Previous Swing HighsThe precious metal is on track to close flat on the day for Monday. This comes as prices attempted to rise intraday.However, as the momentum fizzled out, gold prices form a lower high. This could potentially trigger a short term decline.For the moment, the initial support level near 1859.50 comes into the picture. As long as this swing low from December 22 holds, there is scope for a rebound.But a failure at this level will open the way for further declines. The 1850 level of support comes into the picture.Despite the short term declines, gold prices are likely to remain supported at or near the 1850 level for the moment.
Major Averages Hit More Record Highs

Major Averages Hit More Record Highs

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.12.2020 19:27
Quick UpdateAs a quick update to kick off today’s newsletter, I would like to summarize my correct calls and what I profited on since beginning to publish these updates. While nobody can predict the future, the major calls I am most proud of since producing these letters are 1) adding emerging market exposure and 2) hedging or selling the U.S. Dollar.Emerging markets have been some of the best performers in 2020, and I have made some bullish calls on specific regional markets for 2021 as well. I have been touting emerging markets since my first report, but when I switched my focus to specific regions, my calls became even more correct. On December 3rd, I called Taiwan ( EWT ETF) the best bet for emerging market exposure while avoiding the risks and baked in profits of China. Since then, the EWT ETF which tracks Taiwan has gained over 4.3% while the MCHI ETF which tracks China has fallen over 3.3%. The Taiwan ETF has also outperformed the SPY S&P 500 ETF and the IEUR ETF which tracks Europe.My calls on the U.S. dollar were also correct. Since I started doing these newsletters about a month and a half ago, I consistently reiterated that the dollar should be hedged or avoided because of the Fed’s policies, effect of interest rates this low for this long, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation. I also said that any minor rally the dollar would experience would be fool’s good. In the last month and a half, the dollar has fallen around 2.3%, and since it briefly pierced the 91-level on December 9th , it has fallen another 1%.Markets kicked off the final week of 2020 with a surge towards record highs after President Trump finally signed off on the stimulus bill.News RecapAll major indices closed at record highs. The Dow Jones rose 204.10 points higher, or 0.7%, to close at 30,403.97. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9% to 3,735.36, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7% to 12,899.42. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed and declined 0.38%.After President Trump called the $900 billion stimulus package an unsuitable “disgrace,” and alluded to possibly vetoing the bill, over the weekend the president signed the bill into law . By signing off, a government shutdown was averted while unemployment benefits were extended to millions of Americans.After President Trump demanded stimulus checks for Americans to be raised from $600 to $2,000 each , the Democrat-led House voted for this measure on Monday (Dec. 28). The ball is now in the GOP-led Senate’s court on the measure. They are not expected to approve the measure.Apple led the Dow higher, and gained 3.6%. Disney also climbed nearly 3%.Communication services, consumer discretionary and tech were the best performing sectors in the S&P 500, with each rising over 1%.Amidst fears of a COVID-19 “surge on top of a surge” after the Christmas holiday, over one million people in the U.S. have now been vaccinated. Meanwhile, the U.S. has averaged at least 184,000 new infections per day.Markets cheered President Trump’s signing of the stimulus package and are further encouraged by the possibility of larger stimulus checks. After the market traded flat last week, it kicked off the final week of 2020 with a bang. Although it is still very possible that consolidation, profit taking, and rebalancing could happen in this shortened week, the general focus of both investors and analysts has appeared to be the long-term potential of 2021.As Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report said :“The five pillars of the rally (Federal stimulus, FOMC stimulus, vaccine rollout, divided government and no double dip recession) remain largely in place, and until that changes, the medium and longer-term outlook for stocks will be positive.”While I still do believe that there will be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news, I am now convinced that these moves are manic and based on sentiment. There has not been a pullback to end the year as I anticipated. But I still do believe that markets have overheated, and that between now and the end of Q1 2020 a correction could happen.There is optimistic potential, but the road towards normalcy will hit inevitable speed bumps.I do believe though that a correction is healthy and could be a good thing. Corrections happen way more often than people realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). I believe we are overdue for one since there has not been one since the lows of March. This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what I believe will be a great second half of the year.The mid-term and long-term optimism are very real, despite the near-term risks. The passage of the stimulus package only solidifies the robust vaccine-induced tailwinds entering 2021.The general consensus is that 2021 could be a strong year for stocks, despite short-term headwinds. According to a new CNBC survey which polled more than 100 chief investment officers and portfolio managers, two-thirds of respondents said the Dow Jones will most likely finish 2021 at 35,000 - a roughly 16% gain from Thursday’s close of 30,199.87. Five percent also said that the index could climb to 40,000 by the end of 2021.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. But I do not believe, with conviction, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen. Will the Dow Approach 31,000 or 29,000 Before Mid-2021?Figure 1 - Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)After trading as low as around 29,650 at one point last Monday (Dec. 21), the Dow has been firmly back above 30,000 for the last week. The blue-chip index also closed at yet another record high on Monday (Dec. 28).I do think that the Dow has some more room to run in the next few days to close off the year. Trump’s signing of the stimulus bill was a belated Christmas gift for investors everywhere. If the Senate approves $2,000 stimulus checks, then another short-term pop can certainly happen.My short-term questions though still remain as to whether or not the Dow can not only stay above 30,000 for more than a week at a time but also hit more all-time highs before March. The volume has also been very unstable as of late, but that is likely due to shortened trading weeks to close off the year.In the short-term, I believe it is just as likely for the Dow to approach 29,000 as it is to approach 31,000 in the early months of 2021.While I think a 35,000 call to close out 2021 is a bit aggressive, I do believe that the second half of 2021 could show robust gains for the index.With so much uncertainty and the RSI still firmly in hold territory, the call on the Dow stays a HOLD.This is a very challenging time to make calls with conviction. But one thing I do believe is that if and when there is a drop in the index, it will not be strong and sharp relative to the gains since March, let alone November. I believe that more likely than not we will be in a sideways holding pattern until vaccines are available to the general public by mid-2021.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the Dow, the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is a strong option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Stock Pick Update: Dec. 30 – Jan. 5, 2021

Stock Pick Update: Dec. 30 – Jan. 5, 2021

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.12.2020 13:38
Header: Which stocks could magnify S&P 500’s gains in case it rallies? Take a look at a part of our Stock Pick Update. We have included two Technology stocks and one Health Care stock this time. In the last five trading days (December 23 – December 29) the broad stock market has extended its record-breaking run-up. The S&P 500 index reached new record high of 3,756.12 on Tuesday following the recent stimulus news.The S&P 500 has gained 0.91% between December 23 open and December 29 close. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have lost 0.07%. Stock picks were relatively weaker than the broad stock market last week. Our long stock picks have lost 0.30% and short stock picks have resulted in a gain of 0.16%.There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.Our last week’s portfolio result:Long Picks (December 23 open – December 29 close % change): CRM (-4.32%), NVDA (-2.36%), PSX (0.00%), FANG (+4.72%), SPGI (+0.47%)Short Picks (December 23 open – December 29 close % change): SO (+0.10%), AES (+0.73%), WY (-1.27%), ARE (-0.88%), CL (+0.52%)Average long result: -0.30%, average short result: +0.16%Total profit (average): -0.07%Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, December 30 – Tuesday, January 5 period.We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (December 30) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (January 5).We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:buys: 2 x Technology, 2 x Health Care, 1 x Communication Servicessells: 2 x Utilities, 2 x Energy, 1 x Real EstateBuy CandidatesNVDA NVIDIA Corp. - TechnologyStock trades along medium-term upward trend linePossible breakout above short-term consolidationThe support level is at $490-500 and resistance level is at $550, among othersINTC Intel Corp. – TechnologyStock retraced most of its recent declinesPossible breakout above medium-term downward trend lineThe support level is at $47 and the nearest important resistance level is at $52ABBV AbbVie Inc. – Health CareStock broke above short-term downward trend line – uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $100-102 and resistance level is at $106-108Summing up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Technology and Health Care sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .Thank you.Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *DisclaimerAll essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Japanese Firm Scores BitLicense in New York for Yen Stablecoin

Japanese Firm Scores BitLicense in New York for Yen Stablecoin

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 30.12.2020 07:35
Japanese internet firm GMO has obtained approval from regulators in New York to issue a yen-pegged stablecoin. This makes GMO the 27th BitLicense recipient to be allowed to engage in virtual currency operations in the state. First Yen-Pegged Stablecoin in New York According to a press release by the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), GMO has been granted a charter to issue Japanese yen (JPY)-pegged stablecoins in the state. Based on the approval, the Tokyo-based firm will also be able to issue and redeem U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins as well. Like many Asian conglomerates, GMO has a history of significant involvement in the crypto and blockchain space. Indeed, the approval now adds another chapter to the company’s virtual currency foray with previous enterprises in the mining and trading arena. Commenting on the license approval, Ken Nakamura, CEO of GMO-Z Trust company remarked: We’re breaking ground with our move to issue the first regulated JPY-pegged stablecoin, which many see as a safe haven asset. But we are also pioneers and innovators in this space who envision building new applications of blockchain technology that transforms our relationship with traditional financial services. Apart from numerous crypto and blockchain pursuits, GMO also owns GMO Click, one of the largest forex trading platforms in the world. New Regulations in 2021 GMO’s BitLicense approval to issue stablecoins in New York is coming amid increasing scrutiny by regulators in major economies. Earlier in December, a proposed legislative piece by some members of the U.S. Congress to regulate stablecoins like banks caused rumblings within the cryptocurrency community. In Europe, many mainstream finance stakeholders including European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde continue to rail against private stablecoins. As previously reported by BeInCrypto, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) called for embedded supervision for stablecoins back in November. Indeed, the regulatory pushback has seen Facebook water down its ambitious Diem digital currency platform to appease regulators opposed to the project. The post Japanese Firm Scores BitLicense in New York for Yen Stablecoin appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Gold Seeks Direction as USDX Slips

Gold Seeks Direction as USDX Slips

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.12.2020 17:36
As of Wednesday (Dec. 30) morning, gold is range trading and remains more or less flat as it seeks momentum. As we wait for the precious metals to act on a catalyst, let’s also take a look at the Euro’s relation to the U.S. Dollar and how both impact gold.Over the last 24 hours, the precious metals market did more or less nothing, despite the new daily decline in the USD Index. The latter is now testing its monthly and yearly lows, while the PMs are not. PMs – as a group – are not reacting to what should make them rally, and this is yet another bearish sign for the precious metals market.Figure 1 - USD Index (Sept – Dec 2020)The USDX is at its monthly and yearly lows and at the same time…Figure 2 - COMEX Gold Futures (Jan – Dec 2020)Gold is about $30 below its monthly high, and about $200 below the yearly low.After a temporary breakout, gold is back below its 2011 high. The breakout above the latter was clearly invalidated.Figure 3 - COMEX Silver Futures (Jan – Dec 2020)Silver is not even close to its 2011 high, and while it’s relatively strong compared to gold and miners on a short-term basis, it’s not at its December high right now. It’s also a few dollars below its yearly high.Figure 4 - GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (Feb – Dec 2020)Miners remained relatively quiet on Tuesday (Dec. 29).We see that the GDX ETF moved lower once again despite the intraday attempt to rally. During Monday’s (Dec. 28) session, miners once again moved back to their 50-day moving average and… Once again verified it as resistance. The implications are bearish.Let’s get back to silver once again. On its chart, you can see a triangle-vertex-based reversal at the end of the year. Before the price moves close to the reversal, it’s relatively unclear what kind of implications a given reversal is likely to have. Well, including today’s (Dec. 30) session, there remain only two sessions until the end of the year, so we’re likely to see the reversal shortly.Based on the likelihood that the next big move is going to be to the downside, it would fit the overall picture more if the upcoming reversal was a top, not a bottom. A bottom would imply a rally in the following days or weeks, and the relative performance (as described above) along with other factors continues to favor a bigger decline.This means that we might not see a meaningful decline for a few more days, and we might even see one final move higher before the top is formed. This could be something that takes place in silver only, or something that we see in gold and miners as well. Still, I don’t expect it to be really significant in case of the latter. They are underperforming the metals, after all.Before summarizing, let’s discuss the USD Index’s main part – the EUR/USD currency pair in greater detail. After all, this pair often moves in tandem with gold.EUR/USD Decouples from FundamentalsJohn Maynard Keynes once said, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”And right now, EUR/USD is putting his theory to the test.Because the euro accounts for nearly 58% of the movement in the USD Index, its rise (and likely fall) will determine if/when the war is won.But brimming with confidence and unwilling to wave the white flag, the EUR/USD has been green for five straight days and has rallied during nine of the last 12 trading days. And while sentiment and momentum are warriors that don’t die easy, the euro is losing fundamental soldiers left and right.Please see the chart below:Figure 5 - European Central Bank (ECB) Balance SheetAnother weekly update shows the European Central Bank’s (ECB) money printer continues to work overtime. And as I mentioned on Monday (Dec. 28), the ECB’s total assets now equal 69% of Eurozone GDP – nearly double the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) 35%.And why is this necessary?Because the Eurozone economy is in free-fall.Remember, currencies trade on a relative basis. Thus, a less-bad U.S. economy is good news for the U.S. dollar.Please see below:Figure 6 - 2020 Economic Indicators for Germany, France, Italy, SpainAcross Europe’s largest economies – Germany , France, Italy and Spain – economic activity is rolling over (To explain the chart, alternative economic indicators are high-frequency data like credit card spending, indoor dining traffic, travel activity and location information.)And underpinning the irrationality, the deceleration is happening as the euro is strengthening.Makes sense?Well, considering Spain’s retail sales dipped further into negative territory on Monday (Dec. 28) – coming in at – 5.8% vs. – 5.3% expected – the data speaks for itself.Figure 7 - Spain Retail Sales Constant Prices (Source: Bloomberg/Daniel Lacalle)The bottom line is: the euro bulls are fighting a war they’re unlikely to win. And as the fundamental data worsens, it’s analogous to a platoon losing more and more soldiers. Eventually, the infantry runs out of reserves and it’s time to wave the white flag.And then what happens?Well, then history tries to explain how it all went wrong.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Bitcoin (BTC) Knocking on the Door to $30,000

Bitcoin (BTC) Knocking on the Door to $30,000

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 31.12.2020 07:47
Bitcoin (BTC) hit new all-time highs on both Dec. 30 and 31. The price briefly hit $29,300 on some exchanges this morning before a small pullback.   The rally has begun to show short-term signs of weakness and BTC is expected to soon reach a top.   New Bitcoin All-Time High Bitcoin continued its ascent on Dec. 30, creating a bullish candlestick and reaching a high of $28,996. Yesterday’s close was above that of the shooting star on Dec. 17, a bullish sign that indicates a dissipation of the previous resistance Technical indicators are bullish and have yet to show any weakness, suggesting that the upward move is expected to continue. BTC Chart By TradingViewFuture Movement The six-hour chart shows that while BTC has been increasing at an accelerated rate over the past week, there is a very significant bearish divergence developing in both the RSI and the MACD. This is a sign that the rally may be overextended and a correction is expected. BTC Chart By TradingViewThe two-hour chart shows more of the same bearish divergence. Furthermore, BTC is following a very steep ascending support line, which is unsustainable in the long-run. If a breakdown from the support line occurs, it’s possible that BTC will undergo a very sharp drop. BTC Chart By TradingViewBTC Wave Count The wave count suggests that BTC is in sub-wave 5 (shown in orange in the image below) of wave 5 (blue). A possible target for the top of the move is found at $29,800 — the 3.61 Fib extension of sub-wave 5 (orange fib). Once the correction begins, we would expect the entire move which began in September to be corrected. In that case, the two most important support areas would be the 0.382 and 0.5 Fib retracement levels, respectively found at $21,838 and $19,538. BTC Chart By TradingViewA closer look at the minor sub-wave count (black) shows that BTC is likely in minor sub-wave 5. This is also accentuated by the fourth minor sub-wave triangle, after which BTC moved upwards at a more accelerated rate. BTC Chart By TradingViewConclusion Bitcoin is expected to reach a high near $29,800 before undergoing a significant correction. For BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here! Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The views expressed in this article do not reflect those of BeInCrypto. The post Bitcoin (BTC) Knocking on the Door to $30,000 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
What Are Gold’s New Year’s Resolutions?

What Are Gold’s New Year’s Resolutions?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 31.12.2020 16:07
2020 is dead! Long live 2021! The new year should be positive for gold, but to a lesser extent than the previous year.Finally, 2020 has drawn to a close! It was a strange year all right, bringing with it disaster for many people all over the world, so it’s a good thing that it’s passing. Few will miss 2020... but gold bulls should count themselves among this small group of people. After all, as the chart below shows, the yellow metal jumped from $1,515 to $1,874, gaining more than $350, or almost 24 percent!Gold prices have been rising since May 2019, amid the Fed’s interest rate cuts. The pandemic was the catalyst for the rally in 2020, and increased the safe-haven demand for the yellow metal . The epidemic in the U.S. also triggered an expansion in monetary policy easing that led to abundant liquidity and negative real interest rates , which pushed the gold prices higher. Last but not least, the loose fiscal policy expanded the fiscal deficits , which ballooned the public debt and increased fears about the debt crisis and inflation . So, gold shined in 2020 , although the aggressive March asset selloff and shift into cash plunged the gold prices for a while.Implications for Gold in 2021We know what happened in 2020, but the key question is what will 2021 bring for the gold market? Given that the price of gold peaked in August and has been unable to return above $1,900, there are justified worries that the best of times are already behind the yellow metal. However, others claim that we are just witnessing an interlude within gold’s bull market ? Who is right?Well, both sides are right. How is that possible? In my view, 2021 should be positive for the yellow metal, but to a lesser extent than the previous year . This claim is based on a careful comparative analysis. Long story short, 2021 should be economically better compared to 2020 (unless we see a solvency crisis). Armed with vaccines, we will eventually win the battle with the coronavirus and the era of economic lockdowns will end.In consequence, although the monetary policy will remain accommodative, room for further easing is limited. Actually, there is a downward risk for gold that the interest rates will normalize somewhat during the economic recovery in 2021. The same applies to fiscal policy: although it will stay loose, the ratio of public debt to GDP should stabilize, especially if Republicans maintain control over the Senate and will block the most extravagant Democrats’ spending proposals. In other words, the economic normalization and strengthened risk appetite could create downward pressure on the yellow metal .However, there are also some upward risks for gold in 2021 . One tailwind is a weakening of the U.S. dollar amid a zero interest rate policy , large fiscal deficits, and capital outflows into foreign markets. Another positive macroeconomic trend for gold is reflation , i.e., the possibility that inflation will increase next year due to the disruptions in the global supply chains, a surge in the money supply , and economic recovery with the realization of pent-up demand.Hence, the greenback’s depreciation and the continuation of easy monetary and fiscal policies should support the price of the yellow metal. History also shows that gold shines during the early phase of economic recovery, so gold bulls don’t have to be worried that the effects of the pandemic are over. At least not immediately, as January is historically positive for gold prices. And inflation may increase finally, creating downward pressure on the real interest rates, although there might be a significant lag between the surge in the broad money supply and increase in the consumer price index .However, with the federal funds rate already at zero and no indications that the Fed wants negative interest rates , investors could start anticipating higher interest rates later in 2021, which should prove negative for the price of gold.If you are interested in a more detailed outlook for gold in 2021, I will provide a thorough analysis in the upcoming January edition of the Gold Market Overview . Here’s a toast to gold in 2021!If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.
Bittrex Announces Jan. 15 Delistings

Bittrex Announces Jan. 15 Delistings

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 02.01.2021 10:30
Cryptocurrency exchange Bittrex announced impending delistings for four tokens as of Jan. 15. As privacy tokens, the four fit into a category that is increasingly under threat from governments worldwide. Happy New Year? On Jan. 1, the Bittrex cryptocurrency exchange tweeted that effective Jan. 15, Monero, Dash, ZCash, and Grin, would be removed. These four are privacy tokens, which anonymize transactions. We will be delisting the following coins from the Bittrex Global exchange: Monero, Dash, Zcash, & Grin. Markets for trading will be removed on January 15, 2021 at 23:00 UTC.Please visit the following link for more details: https://t.co/QAfCop9fYQ— Bittrex Global (@BittrexGlobal) January 1, 2021Privacy tokens, as the name suggests, are relatively difficult for investigators to track. Their use is rising, and some tokens have been in regulators’ sights for a while. Back in November, Bittrex announced the delisting of 23 tokens for a variety of performance or regulatory issues. The exchange also singled out Grin at that time as a possible target for future delisting. Readers should note that Bittrex also pointed to MEME and VRC for possible delisting. Bounty program  In Sep. 2020,  the US government offered  up to $1.25 million to the team(s) that could crack Monero’s or the Lightning Network’s encryption. The announcement carried a sense of urgency, considering that tight time frames were included in the rules. In particular, Monero seems to be a thorn in the regulators’ side. The request for proposals specified that a Lightning Network on Bitcoin monitoring tool already existed. However, tools for Lightning on Litecoin and on Ethereum were needed.  Europe is gravely concerned In October, EUROPOL, the EU’s united policing body, released the Internet Organized Crime Threat Assessment (IOCTA) for 2020. Privacy coins ranked among the top threats. Mixing services and anonymization are evolving, the report noted. Moreover, crypto-enabled crime adapts quickly to the changing landscape. Communications encryption  Governments focused their attention on more than privacy coins in 2020. They turned to encrypted communication as well, and saw a threat. The European Union emphasized this in early November. The EU Council of Ministers issued a proposal regarding a resolution forbidding end-to-end encryption of communications. This proposal affected What’s App and Signal in particular.  While the proposal was non-binding, it shows where the EU is heading in terms of privacy. The authors of the proposed resolution point to the need to balance individual privacy concerns with fighting crime. A decentralized workaround? While regulation tightens around current-generation privacy coins and end-to-end encryption, new privacy-oriented technologies will appear. Dust, which is supported by Mark Cuban, and Status, are both decentralized communication apps. Blockchain and decentralization changed money and information flows; these apps intend to do the same for communications. The post Bittrex Announces Jan. 15 Delistings appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

2021 May Be A Good Year For The Cannabis/Marijuana Sector

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 03.01.2021 17:03
Great progress in terms of legalization was made for the Cannabis/Marijuana sector in 2020 that will.  The 2020 elections resulted in a number of US states engaging in new Cannabis friendly policies and laws being approved by voters. This suggests a new rally in the Cannabis sector may be setting up in 2021 and beyond for traders. Our BAN - Best Asset Now - trading strategy is always looking out for the next sector to make a trade, and the Cannabis sector is certainly one we are keeping our eyes on! Make sure you sign up for my FREE webinar to find and trade the Best Assets Now just like me.Weekly MJ Price Flag SetupMy research and I team believe the recent longer-term bottom in the MJ ETF, the Alternative Harvest ETF, suggests a broad bottom is setting up in the Cannabis/Marijuana sector.  If this bottom in the Cannabis sector continues to profit support for the entire sector, then we may see price appreciation across many individual Cannabis stocks over the next 12+ months.  Additionally, this price appreciation may prompt quite a bit of consolidation across the entire Cannabis/Marijuana sector.The global use and demand for CBD & THC related products may continue to expand as medical and personal use expands across the US and into other nations.  We are still near the infancy of understanding the true medicinal benefits of this all-natural product.  A new upward price trend in this sector may prompt a global expansion/consolidation event where the Cannabis/Marijuana industry attempts to restructure into true global power companies.Our research team is focused on the possibility that an early 2021 price decline in this sector may setup a broad sector bullish trend near March/April 2021 (or earlier).  We believe the process of this longer-term bottom setup will still require another attempt to consolidate near the MAGENTA support channel before a more substantial breakout will take place.  The current bottom setup is very similar to a Bullish Price Flag setup and we believe the next price low may be an area where real opportunity exists for a final bottom in price.Monthly MJ Bottom SetupThe following Monthly MJ chart highlights the same bottom setup on a longer-term chart basis.  Pay very close attention to how much volume has poured into this sector in October and November 2020.  It is very likely that a new price low, below $11.90~$12.00, will setup within 4 to 8+ weeks that will represent the final downside price move before the Price Flag pattern attempts an upside breakout.  We expect to see stronger volume surge into this final bottom as traders load up before the breakout move begins.As we've been suggesting for a number of months, the broader, longer-term market cycles and trends suggest the next 3 to 5+ years are going to be very dynamic for various market sectors.  Our research team believes the US and global markets have just recently started a broad depreciation phase which may last another 5 to 7+ years.  Typically, within these phases, commodities and other sectors rotate in and out of favor as capital is forced to seek out undervalued and potentially explosive sector trends.This bottom setup in MJ may prompt a number of individual Cannabis and CBD suppliers, processors, end-user manufacturers, and technology providers to engage in a series of acquisition and consolidation steps over the next few years if this sector becomes hot fairly quickly.  Rising prices and expectations may prompt this industry into a consolidation and technology/distribution expansion over the next 4 to 5+ years.  Very similar to the DOT COM/Technology bubbles recently, when a sector gets hot, it tends to prompt quite a bit of investment and activity surrounding the growth and consolidation of industrial components and technology.Do you want to stay ahead of these sector trends and learn which sectors are the best opportunities for your trades?  Our BAN Trader trades the Best Asset Now using to consistently earn better-than-market returns.  Learn how our BAN Trader solution can help you keep focused on the best trading opportunities in 2021 and beyond while helping you protect and grow your wealth.  Go to www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about BAN Trader, or let me teach you how to trade this strategy yourself by watching my FREE webinar! Scroll below to register for your seat now and make 2021 your year to PROFIT!!Happy Trading!
GBPUSD Settles Comfortably Higher. Dollar strengthens slightly on year end flows

GBPUSD Settles Comfortably Higher. Dollar strengthens slightly on year end flows

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.01.2021 08:22
EURUSD Drops Into The Year-End The euro currency was down over 0.63% into the yearly close. The declines come amid thin trading and the US dollar posting a modest rebound. The euro currency has been consolidating near the rising trend line over the past few days. While price action was making modestly higher highs, the pace of gains was gradual. The slowing momentum has led to a decline off the trendline consolidation. If the current declines continue, the euro could be looking to test the 1.2177 level of support. However, with the Stochastics oscillator somewhat oversold we may expect to see a modest rebound in prices. The British pound sterling is maintaining a bullish hold with prices posting a gradual rally since 29 December. The pace of gains, however, is likely to stall given the Doji candlestick patterns near the current levels. A bearish follow-through is required in order to confirm the downside. This could potentially see the GBPUSD falling to the 1.3500 level of support. As long as this support holds, the GBPUSD could be looking to make a rebound once again. With the threat of a hard Brexit now out of the way, the GBPUSD is likely to focus back on the fundamentals. The Stochastics oscillator remains overbought at the moment, indicating a possible correction in the near term. WTI Crude Oil Consolidates Near Current Highs Oil prices are trading flat ever since prices touched intraday highs of 49.29 on 21 December. Since then, oil prices pulled back and are trading in a sideways range. For the moment, this sideways range is likely to continue. However, the OPEC+ meeting today could offer something for oil investors. Depending on the outcome, oil prices could see a possible move in either direction. To the downside, support at 47.17 remains. As long as this support holds, oil prices are likely to maintain the upside bias. To the upside, a close above the 21 December highs of 49.29 is required in order to confirm further gains. Will Gold Breakout Higher? The precious metal was seen consolidating near the 1900 level. Price action previously tested this level before pulling back recently. In the process, we have a potential ascending triangle pattern emerging. If the 1900 level of resistance breaks, then we expect to see further gains coming. A breakout above 1900 will validate the bullish ascending triangle. It puts the next minimum target in price action toward 1922 at the very least. But this would also put gold prices above the 1900 level which has proven hard to break as both a resistance and support level previously.
Polkastarter to Launch Polkacover DeFi Insurance and IDO

Polkastarter to Launch Polkacover DeFi Insurance and IDO

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 04.01.2021 08:19
The decentralized exchange built upon the Polkadot network is now launching its own DeFi insurance products and an Initial DEX Offering. Polkastarter has been touted as an Ethereum and Uniswap-rivalling automated market maker and dApp platform. It was launched on Dec. 15 with the purpose of enabling projects to raise capital on the Polkadot network. There have been a few minor partnerships but the new DEX has yet to gain much traction in an already crowded market place. It has now announced the Jan. 21 launch date of a new Polkacover DeFi insurance product and associated token. The day is coming !! We are ecstatic to announce that the PolkaCover #IDO will take place on the rockstar @Polkastarter DEX on Jan21st Join the whitelist on https://t.co/wim3K8FFG9Save the Date!#Polkadot #Bitcoin #polkastarter #DeFi pic.twitter.com/3U6oPfqCD4— Polkacover (@Polkacover) January 3, 2021More DeFi Insurance 2020 has been rife for hacks, scams, smart contract exploits, rug pulls, and flash loan attacks in the DeFi sector so insurance products are in big demand. Polkacover touts itself as the ‘first DeFi insurance marketplace for the global crypto ecosystem’, however, there are already a couple of insurance providers doing something similar. Nexus Mutual offers DeFi insurance and something called ‘shield farming’ to incentivize liquidity providers. The Cover Protocol is another decentralized insurance marketplace, but it was recently exploited in late December. Polkacover aims to collaborate with multi-national insurance providers that offer global insurance products such as crypto-related protection, health, life, education, and family insurance plans. It also aims to provide a fully comprehensive cover that is not currently available with current crypto-insurance offerings. The whitepaper explains; “Presently, the crypto insurance options are mainly either to niche in their coverage or too complex to understand for mass market adoption. This has resulted in a substandard experience for customer and policy management who are faced with a low penetration rate of adopting customers.” It does mention the Binance Security Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) which allocates 10% of trading fees to be used to cover extreme cases. The Polkacover platform will have four development phases; crypto insurance products, a global marketplace, peer-to-peer cover, and decentralized administration and arbitration. It will also offer cover from losses involving company negligence such as the recent Ledger data breach which resulted in a wave of phishing and physical attacks on its unfortunate customers. A New Insurance DAO Token In addition to the POLS DEX token, there will be a new CVR token for the governance of the Insurance DAO and liquidity purposes to create the P2P DeFi insurance platform. Users will be able to provide liquidity to insurance pools for different products, with the investments being allocated in the Polkadot DOT token and redeemable for CVR tokens. There is currently a private sale in process and according to the whitepaper, a total supply has been set at 135 million CVR. It intends a final circulation of 70 million and will buy back and burn tokens quarterly. The post Polkastarter to Launch Polkacover DeFi Insurance and IDO appeared first on BeInCrypto.
What Will the U.S. Dollar Ring in for 2021?

What Will the U.S. Dollar Ring in for 2021?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.01.2021 15:16
The fate of the U.S. Dollar will weigh heavily on the future of the precious metals in 2021. At first glance, the USDX’s prospects look rather bleak in the first months of the year, but as the pages of the book turn, the dollar’s likely later ascension could prove rather bearish for gold and the PMs.Breaking hearts as the USD Index falls in and out of love, the greenback continues to leave bulls at the altar, which is likely to have important implications for the gold market in the following weeks . Dressed to impress, investors lined the cathedral aisles as the USDX looked ready to commit to the 90-level.But as cold feet turned into a dash for the exit, 2020 ended without a celebration.However, as we enter 2021 and net-short futures positions (non-commercial traders) remain at their highest level since 2006, the slightest shift in sentiment could have wedding bells ringing again.Please see below:Figure 1 – Net-short Futures PositionsIf you analyze the second red box (on the right side), you can see that the 2018 top in net-short futures positions ended with a violent short-covering rally, which propelled the USDX nearly 11% higher from trough to peak.Figure 2 – U.S. Dollar IndexIn this week’s early trading, the USDX moved lower, almost back to the 2020 lows. This was disappointing to anyone hoping that the December 31 rally was the beginning of a sharp rally, somewhat similar to what we saw in early September. In reality, the Dec. 31 rally and today’s decline don’t change much. It is not the immediate-term that is particularly important right now, but the medium and long-term pictures. The indications coming from them are much more decisive, and more important.And while the USDX remains indecisive right now, its price action still follows a familiar playbook: In 2018, the USDX dipped below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level before circling back with a vengeance (The initial bottom occurred in early 2018, with the final bottom not far behind.) Moreover, the 2018 USDX bottom also marked the 2018 top in gold, silver and the gold miners (depicted in the below).Figure 3 – USDX, USD, GOLD, GDX, and SPX ComparisonAlso reprising its former role, the USDX’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) mirrors the double-bottom seen in 2017-2018 (the green arrows at the top-left of the chart). As the initial pattern emerged (with the RSI below 30 in 2017), it preceded a significant rally, with the USDX’s RSI surging to nearly 70. And just like the chorus from your favorite song, the pattern repeated in 2018 with nearly identical results.Today, it’s more of the same.If you look at the pattern at the top-right of the chart (the green arrows), the only difference is time. And in time, the USDX’s likely ascension will put significant pressure on gold, silver and the gold miners. In addition, the precious metals’ underperformance relative to the USDX further implies that a drawdown is the path of least resistance.Moreover, let’s keep in mind the similarity in cryptocurrencies – we now have a parabolic upswing, just like what we saw in early 2018. The history does seem to be rhyming, and this doesn’t bode well for the stock market (there are some individual opportunities, e.g. Matthew Levy, CFA managed to reap great gains in the Taiwanese ETF – it gained over twice as much as the S&P since Dec. 3 ), as well as the precious metals market.It appears that the USD Index is repeating its 2017 – 2018 decline to some extent. The starting points of the declines (horizontal red line) as well as the final high of the biggest correction are quite similar. The difference is that the recent correction was smaller than it was in 2017.Since back in 2018, the USDX’s bottom was at about 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the size of the correction, we could expect something similar to happen this time. Applying the above to the current situation would give us the proximity of the 90 level as the downside target.“So, shouldn’t gold soar in this case?” – would be a valid question to ask.Well, if the early 2018 pattern was being repeated, then let’s check what happened to precious metals and gold stocks at that time.In short, they moved just a little higher after the USDX’s breakdown. I marked the moment when the U.S. currency broke below its previous (2017) bottom with a vertical line, so that you can easily see what gold, silver, and GDX (proxy for mining stocks) were doing at that time. They were just before a major top. The bearish action that followed in the short term was particularly visible in the case of the miners.Consequently, even if the USD Index is to decline further from here, then the implications are not particularly bullish for the precious metals market.To summarize, gold’s recent strength is underpinned by a dormant U.S. dollar. But with the greenback more unloved than the villain in a superhero movie, it won’t take much to change the narrative. Furthermore, with net-short futures positions going from excessive to extreme, the game of musical chairs is likely to end with the shorts capitulating and the USDX moving higher. The implications may be unclear for the next few days, but they are bearish for the next few weeks to months.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
LTC Moves Above $150, Reaching Highest Price Since 2018

LTC Moves Above $150, Reaching Highest Price Since 2018

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 04.01.2021 19:54
On Jan. 4, the Litecoin (LTC) price reached a high of $173, a high not seen since 2018. While it could continue increasing and reach the $185 resistance area, it appears the current rally is top-heavy, and a corrective movement will soon follow. LTC’s Long-Term Movement The weekly chart shows that LTC has finally moved above the June 2019 highs at $145 and has actually reached a weekly close above this level. If it continues increasing, the next resistance areas would be at $186 and $225, the 0.5 and 0.618 Fib retracement levels, respectively. Technical indicators are bullish, supporting the possibility of a breakout and a gradual move towards the resistance areas outlined. Chart By TradingViewCryptocurrency trader @Pentosh1 outlined a chart, stating that once the final resistance area at $140 is broken, a significant upward move is likely to follow. Since the tweet, LTC has moved above this level and is thus likely to continue increasing. Source: TwitterContinuation of the Move The daily chart shows signs of weakness, in the form of a bearish divergence in the RSI. Nevertheless, both the MACD and the Stochastic Oscillator are bullish. Due to the very rapid rate of increase, there aren’t any significant support areas. The closest is at $120. Chart By TradingViewThe two-hour chart shows signs of continuation in the form of hidden bullish divergence in the RSI. Combined with the long lower wick, this suggests that LTC is likely to move upwards. LTC Chart By TradingViewWave Count The wave count suggests that LTC has begun a bullish impulse (shown in white below) with its March lows, currently trading near the top of the third wave, which has become extended. The sub-wave count is shown in orange. Therefore, while LTC could potentially increase in the short-term, reaching a high near the $185 resistance area outlined in the first section, a correction would likely follow. LTC Chart By TradingViewLTC/BTC The weekly chart shows that both the RSI and the MACD have formed bullish divergence since the beginning of April despite the ongoing decline. LTC has been moving upwards since it reached a low of ₿0.0036 on Nov. 12. If LTC/BTC resumes its upward movement, the closest resistance area would be at ₿0.008. LTC Chart By TradingViewConclusion To conclude, while LTC could potentially resume its movement towards the $185 area, it is overdue for a correction. LTC/BTC meanwhile looks bullish in the long-term. For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here! Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The views expressed in this article do not reflect those of BeInCrypto. The post LTC Moves Above $150, Reaching Highest Price Since 2018 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
ESG Flows Drive Clean Energy to Fresh Highs

ESG Flows Drive Clean Energy to Fresh Highs

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 05.01.2021 00:04
The ESG theme has taken the capital markets by storm in 2020. Fund flows into this space have been relentless, helping to drive the clean energy sector to fresh highs. In the first half of 2020, 23-new exchange-traded funds were launched under the ESG umbrella. By the end of the Q3, ESG index funds hit $250 billion in value. The ESG umbrella focuses on many different areas and has flourished during the pandemic. With a vaccine on the horizon, the question for investors is whether this sector will remain sustainable.What is ESG and ESG InvestingThe term ESG stands for:EnvironmentalSocialGovernanceThe term brings to mind concepts like climate change, diversity and inclusion, and resource scarcity. While these are forms of ESG, it also covers social practices, including labor and talent management and data security and product safety. It includes employee experience, executive pay, and ethics. There is a wide divide amongst stakeholders on what the term means and how to communicate and manage the concept.ESG investing appears to be a derivative of socially responsible investing (SRI), which has been in existence for decades. While profits have always been considered the "mothers milk" of stocks, modern investors have realized that shortchanging stakeholders is a high price for society to pay. A company's stakeholders include its employees, customers, suppliers, as well as the environment, which play a crucial role in the functioning of the corporation.There is a fine line between ESG investing and SRI. ESG investors actively look for companies that show robust environmental, social, or governance attributes. SRI focuses on excluding industries that have failed to demonstrate compliance in socially responsible areas. ESG provides broader flexibility into specific companies' practices and the different management attributes that make up a corporate initiative.Inflows Into ESG Have Been ImpressiveInflows to ESG have been robust. ESG ETFs surged to $22 billion in the first half of 2020, which was more than 3X the 2019 total, according to Bloomberg. One of the issues that regulators face is that there is no clear definition of what constitutes ESG.The Concept is Here to StaySome corporate actions show me that ESG is here to stay. Stakeholders at public companies are getting assurances from management that their contributions will remain an essential aspect of management's focus. In 2020, Starbucks Corp. announced that the company would mandate antibias training for executives and tie their compensation to increasing minority representation in its workforce. Their diversity and inclusion mandate's target is to have 30% of corporate employees be minorities by 2025. While profits at any level are key, it's hard to imagine that an executive will allow their bonus to be eroded by failing to meet a corporate ESG mandate.The Best Asset Now ProcessI have mentioned this before and I have not wavered. I like to use a BAN strategy (Best Asset Now) to find leading sectors. Two ETFs have largely outperformed the rest that conforms to the ESG concept. These ETFs represent sectors that have shown leadership and are currently two of the top-5 best performing ETFs in 2020. These ETFs have generated bullish chart patterns that point to much higher prices following their recent breakouts.There is a reason to be bullish. President-elect Joe Biden named former Secretary of State John Kerry to lead his administration's climate change efforts. Kerry will be the "climate czar" and will be in charge of coordinating programs that are expected to stretch across multiple agencies. This could include executive orders issued by the new President-Elect to provide avenues beyond Congress to advance climate priorities. This is positive news for clean energy ETFs. If you are a stock trader, these are the BAN ETFs to look at which will outperform.*source - https://etfdb.com/compare/highest-ytd-returns/TAN Hits Fresh HighsThe Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Solar ETF accelerated to multi-year highs in November and is poised to test resistance near the 2011 highs at $91.70. This would add another 11% to its already robust 162% return in 2020. While prices could temporarily consolidate near this $92, a close above this level would lead to a test of the 2010 highs at $115. A close above $115 could lead to a test of the all-time highs near $307. Momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.*source TradingviewPBW Invesco Exchange-Traded Wilderhill Clean Energy ETFHas broken out and is poised to test the 2008 highs near $119.50. Support is seen near the 10-week moving average of $71.70. Momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory, which points to higher prices.Be sure to sign up for my FREE webinar that will teach you how to find and trade my BEST ASSET NOW strategy on your own!*source TradingviewDo you want to stay ahead of these sector trends and learn which sectors are the best opportunities for your trades?   Learn how our BAN Trader Pro education and alerts can help you keep focused on the best trading opportunities in 2021 and beyond while helping you protect and grow your wealth.  Go to www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about BAN Trader Pro, or let me teach you how to trade this strategy yourself by watching my FREE webinar! Scroll below to register for your seat now and make 2021 your year to PROFIT!!I wish you all a healthy and profitable New Year!!
USD extends losing streak into 2021

USD extends losing streak into 2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 05.01.2021 09:19
Euro Gaps Higher Testing December HighsThe euro currency gapped higher on the open on Monday as traders returned from the year-end holiday.The US dollar resumed its declines from 2020 pushing currencies such as the euro higher. The common currency briefly rose to test the Dec 30, 31 highs before pulling back.If price action continues on the pullback, we could see a near term decline. This would potentially make way for a triple top pattern as well.A break down below January 1 lows of 1.2121 could validate the bearish pattern. For the moment, the EURUSD is likely to trade within the highs and lows of 1.2312 and 1.2121 respectively.Sterling Falls On Risk Of Lockdown MeasuresThe British pound sterling is posting steep losses on Monday.The declines come amid threats of new tougher lockdown measures in the United Kingdom. The one day implied volatility is once again pushing higher.After trading near the highs, Monday’s bearish close could confirm the downside. This would potentially open the way for the GBPUSD to test the 1.3500 level of support.As long as this support holds, it remains within the long term uptrend. However, the GBPUSD will need to post higher highs to confirm this.Failure near the 1.3500 could open the way for the GBPUSD to extend declines lower to the 1.300 level.WTI Crude Oil Pulls Back From Multi-Month HighsOil prices rose to multi-month highs on Monday in anticipation of the OPEC+ meeting. Furthermore, tensions in the Middle East also added to the bullish fundamentals.Prices rose to highs of 48.97 before giving back the gains. For the moment, oil prices remain consolidated near the current levels between 46 and 49.The uptrend since early November remains intact for the moment. Only a strong close and a lower high around the 46.00 level will confirm otherwise.For the moment, oil prices will need to establish support near the 48.00 level to continue pushing higher.Gold Rises To An Eight-Week HighGold prices popped higher as the US dollar continued to extend declines. The pace of gains in the precious metal was however bigger, rising almost 2% intraday.The gains come amid a mixed set of narratives, including the Georgia senate runoff election.Price action has finally emerged from the consolidation from which there has been an ascending triangle pattern.The current gains put gold prices within reach of the 1950 level next. A strong close above this level is required to confirm further upside.To the downside, we expect prices to retest the 1900 – 1911 level in the short term to establish support.
On-chain Metrics Suggest Ethereum Could Still be Undervalued

On-chain Metrics Suggest Ethereum Could Still be Undervalued

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 05.01.2021 06:43
Ethereum prices revisited the four-figure territory again this morning following a minor pullback that threatened heavier losses. Some on-chain metrics are suggesting it is still undervalued even after its recent rally. After hitting $1,150 on some exchanges on Jan. 4, Ethereum prices retreated sharply following Bitcoin as the CME gap closed resulting in a 10% correction for BTC. ETH prices slid back to $850 within six hours but did not remain there long. At the time of press, Ethereum prices were battling to hold on to the $1,000 level. Industry commentator Alex Saunders tweeted his bullish prospects for Ethereum making new all-time highs. Record high for $ETH was on @coinbase at $1500. Currently trading at $1050 puts us 45% away. But after everything we've witnessed in the past 12 months, would it really surprise you to see a 50% sling shot over this weekend or even a day? I feel it's about to shock us all. pic.twitter.com/InlrjzYsV2— Alex Saunders (@AlexSaundersAU) January 4, 2021Other analysts and observers have suggested that the real monetary fundamentals for Ethereum have yet to kick in. Additionally, one metric is also suggesting that the asset has further to go. Ethereum Still Undervalued According to the latest Glassnode Insights report, Ethereum spent less than one month in the four-figure territory before entering a painful bear market that lasted two and a half years. “However, on-chain signals suggest that we are still in the earlier stages of a bull market, relative to the same price levels in 2018.” The report analyzed the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio which is the relationship between market capitalization and realized capitalization. The metric, created by David Puell and Murad Muhmudov, gives an indication of when the traded price is below a ‘fair value.’ Glassnode stated that the MVRV ratio is still extremely low relative to early 2018 when the price was equivalent to current levels. When the ratio was this low previously, in the lead-up to the 2017 bull run, ETH prices were still below $25. “This indicates that in the current market, there is room for significant further growth before ETH becomes overvalued.” New Highs in Sight As we’ve seen countless times before, Ethereum has yet to fully decouple from the movements of Bitcoin, so its next move is likely to follow along. On the downside, there is immediate support in the mid-$800 range and even heavier support around $725 where ETH consolidated for nearly a week. Another leg up could meet resistance at $1,230 where previous weekly candles closed. At current levels, Ethereum is just under 40% away from a new all-time high. The post On-chain Metrics Suggest Ethereum Could Still be Undervalued appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Bitcoin (BTC) Drops Back but Manages to Hold On Above $30,000

Bitcoin (BTC) Drops Back but Manages to Hold On Above $30,000

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 05.01.2021 08:09
After reaching an all-time high on Jan. 3, Bitcoin (BTC) fell the day after, creating successive bearish daily candlesticks. Bitcoin is expected to break down from its short-term pattern and decrease towards the support levels outlined below.   Bitcoin Rally Stalls After reaching an all-time high price of $34,789 on Jan. 3, BTC stalled the next day, dropping all the way to a low of $28,130. However, it proceeded to create a long lower wick (shown with the green arrow in the image below) and reach a close of $31,988. While the lower wick is a bullish sign, the candlestick is not. BTC so far has created two bearish candlesticks, a shooting star on Jan. 3 and a hanging man on Jan. 4 — both normally considered bearish reversal signs. Despite the bearish candlesticks, technical indicators do not yet confirm the bearish reversal. While the MACD has generated a lower volume bar on the daily, it has yet to reach a close. Furthermore, the Stochastic oscillator has not yet made a bearish cross nor has the RSI crossed down below 70. If a downward move were to occur, the three closest support levels would be found at $25,230, $22,290 and $19,340 (0.382, 0.5, and 0.618 Fib retracement levels respectively). Besides being Fib levels, the latter two also provide horizontal support. BTC Chart By TradingViewShort-Term BTC Movement The two-hour chart also provides a somewhat bearish outlook. First, we can see that BTC is possibly trading inside a descending triangle, which is considered a bearish reversal pattern. Second, BTC appeared to have broken out from this pattern last night but was rejected by the $32,800 resistance area (red arrow), making the previous breakout only a deviation. Therefore, until BTC is able to successfully break out and reclaim the $32,800 minor resistance area, the trend is considered bearish and a breakdown is expected. A breakdown that travels the entire height of the pattern would take BTC down to $25,240, close to the 0.382 Fib retracement level from the previous section. BTC Chart By TradingViewThis view is supported by the six-hour time-frame, which similarly shows that the previous support area has turned to resistance, rejecting BTC last night and leaving a long upper wick in place. Technical indicators have also turned bearish, supporting the possibility of a breakdown. BTC Chart By TradingViewConclusion Bitcoin is expected to break down from its descending triangle and gradually decrease towards the closest support area at $25,240. For BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here! Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The views expressed in this article do not reflect those of BeInCrypto. The post Bitcoin (BTC) Drops Back but Manages to Hold On Above $30,000 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Will the Fed Support Gold Prices in 2021?

Will the Fed Support Gold Prices in 2021?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 05.01.2021 13:16
Gold ended 2020 at $1,891, partially thanks to monetary policy easing. In 2021, the Fed may not trigger a comparable rally in gold, but it should offer gold prices some support.Welcome to 2021! I hope that it will be a wonderful year for all of you; a much healthier, calmer and normal year than 2020 was. And even more profitable of course! Indeed, at least gold bulls could be satisfied with the last year, in which the price of gold jumped from $1,523 to $1,891 ( London A.M. Fix )! It means that the yellow metal gained more than 24 percent, as the chart below shows.I know that 24 percent does not look impressive compared to Bitcoin , which gained more than 260 percent in 2020, but it’s still a great achievement relative to other assets or gold in the past. Not to mention the fact that gold’s price level looks more sustainable, while the recent parabolic rises in cryptocurrencies suggest a price bubble .One of the reasons behind gold’s rally was the easy monetary policy adopted by the Fed (and other central banks) in a response to the pandemic and related economic crisis . In a way, the Fed reintroduced the quantitative easing first implemented in the aftermath of the Great Recession . So, gold’s bullish move shouldn’t be surprising.However, there are also some important differences in the monetary policy that followed the global financial crisis and the coronavirus epidemic . First, when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, the Fed went big. But when COVID-19 infections spread widely through America, the Fed went not only big, but also fast!Just look at the chart below. As you can see, it took just about two months for the U.S. central bank to slash the federal funds rate to zero in the spring of 2020, while it took over a year during the Great Recession.Moreover, from February to November, i.e., in just nine months, the Fed expanded its balance sheet by about $3 trillion, while a decade ago, such an increase took over six years!Implications for Gold in 2021What does the difference in the Fed’s stance imply for the price of gold in 2021? Well, on one hand, because the Fed acted aggressively, there is less room for further monetary policy easing . In the aftermath of the Great Recession, the Fed gradually fired from increasingly powerful weaponry, announcing new rounds of asset purchases from 2007 to 2013, while in a response to the coronavirus, the Fed has fired a bazooka at the outset. This decreases the odds for further monetary policy easing, pushing market expectations towards normalization. You see, when you are at the bottom, the only possible move is up.This is my biggest worry for the gold market in 2021: that monetary policy has already become so dovish, that now it can be only hawkish – at least on a relative basis. The real interest rates are so low that – given the prospects of economic recovery on a horizon – they can only go up, especially if inflation does not increase.On the other hand, inflation could really rise in 2021. Additionally, the fact that the Fed went both big and fast means that the U.S. central bank became more dovish than in the past , which should be positive for the yellow metal. Moreover, a decade ago the central banks at least pretended that they would like to tighten their stance and normalize monetary policy. They even said that quantitative easing would be reversed, and the Fed’s balance sheet would return to its pre-recession level.Now, the illusions have dissipated. The central banks will buy assets for years to come, if not indefinitely, and there will be no taper tantrum . The eventual exit from the current easy monetary stance will be ultra-slow and gentle. The Fed has a clear dovish bias, so the interest rates may go down further – after all, given the debt trap , the central banks could be forced to cap the bond yields , which should support gold prices.Therefore, in 2020, the Fed no longer only intervened on a large scale as it did a decade ago, but it also acted quickly. The change of strategy from go big to go big and fast can be positive for gold prices, but only when the market participants do not believe that the Fed is out of ammunition and only when they expect the normalization of interest rates. Although some investors expect an interest rate hike this year, I believe that the Fed will remain dovish and successfully manage market expectations in order to suppress market interest rates. So, although without the next crisis (such as a debt crisis ) or inflation, the price of gold may not rally substantively, it should be supported by the Fed in 2021 .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Major Averages Plummet to Start 2021

Major Averages Plummet to Start 2021

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 05.01.2021 17:11
Quick UpdateIn a quick update to kick off 2021, I wanted to summarize my correct calls, and what I profited on since beginning to publish these updates. While nobody can predict the future, the major calls I am most proud of since writing these letters are calling the short-term downturn in small-cap stocks, adding emerging market exposure, and hedging or selling the U.S. dollar.I switched my call on small-caps, specifically the Russell 2000 from a HOLD to a short-term SELL on December 16th. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) surged to unprecedented record gains since November 2020, however, I believed then and still believe that the index has overheated by many measurements. Since December 16th, the IWM ETF is largely flat. However, since peaking on December 23rd, the IWM has underperformed ETFs tracking the larger indices and has declined by nearly 3%. While I am still bullish on small-caps in the long run and maintain my STRONG BUY call on the Russell for the long-term, it is contingent on a pullback . I believe that pullback may have begun. I am hoping for a minimum 10% decline before jumping back in for the long-term.Emerging markets have been some of the best performers in 2020, and I have made some bullish calls on specific regional markets for 2021 as well. I have been touting emerging markets since my first report, but when I switched my focus to specific regions, my calls became even more correct. I called Taiwan ( EWT ETF) the best bet for emerging market exposure while avoiding the risks and baked in profits of China on December 3rd. Since then, the EWT ETF which tracks Taiwan has gained over 7% while the MCHI ETF which tracks China has barely gained over 1.4%. The Taiwan ETF has also outperformed the SPY S&P 500 ETF and the IEUR ETF which tracks Europe.In conjunction with my bullish calls on emerging markets, my bearish calls on the U.S. dollar were also correct. Since I started doing these newsletters about a month ago, I consistently said that the dollar should be hedged or avoided because of the Fed’s policies, effect of interest rates this low for this long, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation. I also said that any minor rally the dollar would experience would be fool’s good. Since the dollar briefly pierced the 91-level on December 9th, it has fallen nearly 1.4%. Despite it experiencing another mini-rally and nearly piercing the 91-level again on December 22, I remained steadfast in my bearish outlook of the dollar. Since the open on December 23rd, the U.S. Dollar has declined another 0.77%. I believed it would drop back below 90 before the new year, and here we are to start off 2021, with the dollar at 89.85.Markets kicked off the first trading day of 2021 with a dud, due to further concerns of COVID-19 cases and the Georgia Senate run-off elections.News RecapMonday (Jan.4) marked the first negative start to a year for the Dow Jones since 2016. The Dow Jones closed 382.59 points lower, or 1.3%, at 30,223.89. The Dow at one point fell more than 700 points.The S&P 500 also fell 1.5% to 3,700.65, the Nasdaq fell 1.5%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.47%.This was the biggest one-day sell-off since Oct. 28 for the Dow and S&P 500, and the Nasdaq’s worst sell-off since Dec. 9.While the sell-off to start the year could be due to natural consolidation, the growing number of COVID-19 cases around the world and its potential impact on the global economic recovery weighed on investors. To start the year off, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a national lockdown to slow the spread of a new, more contagious, coronavirus strain. With this lockdown, people are only allowed to leave their homes for essentials, work if they can’t from home, and exercise. Most schools, including universities, will also move to remote learning.According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University , more than 85 million COVID-19 cases have been confirmed globally, including 20.7 million in the U.S. and 2.7 million in the U.K.Pay very close attention to the Georgia Senate run-offs on Tuesday (Jan. 5). The balance of power in the Senate is hanging on the vote and markets could be volatile due to the results. If the Democrats gain a majority, it could impact market performance and leave Biden’s powers largely unchecked. If the Republicans keep just one seat, it could likely check Biden’s more progressive ambitions.Coca-Cola (KO) and Boeing (BA) were the laggards on the Dow, falling 3.8% and 5.3%, respectively. Real estate stocks were the worst performing on the S&P and fell 3.2%. Utilities also declined 2.6%.About 4.6 million people in the U.S. have now gotten a COVID-19 vaccine.Stocks dropped sharply on Monday (Jan. 4), to kick off 2021. It was the first time since 2016 that the Dow Jones started a year off with declines and was the biggest one-day sell-off since Oct. 28 for the Dow and S&P 500. It was also the Nasdaq’s worst one-day decline since Dec. 9.Several catalysts can be blamed for the gloomy start to the year: natural consolidation, COVID-19, and the Georgia Senate runoff elections.First and foremost, a decline like this was bound to happen, and I called this happening in the early part of the year. I still believe that there will be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news, and that these moves are manic and based on sentiment. There was no pullback to end 2020 as I anticipated, but I still believe that markets have overheated in the short-term. Was Monday (Jan. 4) the start of a correction? Possibly. But either way, I think that between now and the end of Q1 2020, a correction could happen.Carl Icahn seemingly agrees with me, and told CNBC on Monday (Jan. 4), “in my day I’ve seen a lot of wild rallies with a lot of mispriced stocks, but there is one thing they all have in common. Eventually they hit a wall and go into a major painful correction.”I believe, though, that corrections are healthy and could be a good thing. Corrections happen way more often than people realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). I believe we are overdue for one since there has not been one since the lows of March 2020. This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what I believe will be a great second half of the year.Meanwhile, COVID-19 continues surging and there are very real fears of new strains discovered in the U.K. and South Africa that could be more contagious. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a national lockdown that could potentially last until mid-February. With this lockdown, people are only allowed to leave their homes for essentials, work if they can’t from home and exercise. Most schools, including universities, will also move to remote learning. This could be an ominous sign for stricter lockdowns to be implemented in other regions across the world.Outside of COVID-19, political uncertainty has returned to the markets. The balance of power in the U.S. Senate is at stake, with Georgia run-off Senate elections set to occur on Tuesday (Jan. 5). Investors are likely to prefer a divided Senate. If the Democrats win both elections and wrestle away Senate control from the Republicans, it could leave President Biden’s powers largely unchecked, and enable him to pass more of his ambitious and progressive policies. Many investors do not anticipate these to be very market friendly. As results start to come in Tuesday evening, markets could react in a volatile manner.According to John Stoltzfus , chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, the S&P 500 could fall by 10% if the Democratic candidates win the Georgia runoffs.“It is thought by not just a few folks on Main Street as well as on Wall Street that if tomorrow’s run-off results in a sweep for the Democrats — providing them with control of the Senate as well as the House — that it would bode ill for business with the likelihood that corporate tax rates could rise substantially,” Stoltzfus said.This will also be a busy week for economic data with the manufacturing PMI report said to be released Tuesday (Jan. 5) and the non-farm payrolls report set to be announced Friday (Jan. 8).Monday's sell-off (Jan. 4) serves as a very painful reminder that markets will still have to weigh the near-term risks against some of the more positive mid-term and long-term hopes on vaccines and re-opening.The general consensus is that 2021 could be a strong year for stocks, despite short-term headwinds. According to a CNBC survey which polled more than 100 chief investment officers and portfolio managers, two-thirds of respondents said the Dow Jones will most likely finish 2021 at 35,000, while five percent also said that the index could climb to 40,000.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. But I do not believe, with conviction, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen. Does the Dow Approach 31,000 or 29,000 Before Mid-2021?I have too many short-term questions for the Dow Jones. I believe it’s just as likely for the Dow to touch 29,000 again as it is to touch 31,000 before March.After trading as low as around 29,650 at one point before the new year (Dec. 21), the Dow has remained firmly above 30,000. However, it has traded largely sideways over the last few weeks, despite opening Jan. 4 with a record high.Despite some long-term optimism, for now, my short-term questions take precedence. I don’t like how COVID-19 is trending (who does?), I am disappointed in the vaccine roll-out, and I am concerned about the Georgia election. In the short-term, I am not convinced that the Dow will stay above 30,000 for more than a week at a time and I am also not convinced that it will hit more all-time highs before March.In the short-term, I believe it is just as likely for the Dow to approach 29,000 as it is to approach 31,000 in the early months of 2021.While I think a 35,000 call to close out 2021 is a bit aggressive, I do believe that the second half of 2021 could show robust gains for the index.With so much uncertainty and the RSI still firmly in hold territory, the call on the Dow stays a HOLD.This is a very challenging time to make a call on the Dow with conviction. But one thing I do believe is that if and when there is a drop in the index, it will not be strong and sharply relative to the gains since March 2020. I believe that it is more likely than not that we will be in a sideways holding pattern until vaccines are available to the general public by mid-2021.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the Dow, the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is a strong option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
JPMorgan Analysts Call for $146,000 Long-Term Bitcoin Price Target

JPMorgan Analysts Call for $146,000 Long-Term Bitcoin Price Target

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 05.01.2021 13:36
JPMorgan and its CEO Jamie Dimon have seemingly appeared skeptical of Bitcoin for years, but that hasn’t stopped the firm from speculating on a frothy upside target. With the increased institutional adoption of Bitcoin due to worldwide economic and social factors, the leading cryptocurrency can no longer be ignored. According to JPMorgan analysts via Bloomberg, gold may continue to lose market share: “Bitcoin may have the potential for substantial further gains over the long term as it competes with gold for investment flows, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.” As investors begin to see Bitcoin as a better store of value, transaction system, and hedge against inflation compared to gold, large-scale purchases may continue. The analysts speculate that bitcoin still has some serious upside potential: “A crowding out of gold as an ‘alternative’ currency implies big upside for Bitcoin over the long term, […] a convergence in volatilities between Bitcoin and gold is unlikely to happen quickly and is in our mind a multiyear process. This implies that the above-$146,000 theoretical Bitcoin price target should be considered as a long-term target, and thus an unsustainable price target for this year.” Although the analysts do not predict a quick price run-up to near $150,000, they believe a gradual increase of cash outflows from gold and other assets will inevitably find its way to BTC. JPM traders in London were buying as far back as 2013. I know for fact as someone I know built them trading algo that couldn't be detected by bosses as they weren't allowed to trade it. These traders complained that @maxkeiser kept moving price, forcing them to intervene w/ bot https://t.co/1RE0xJ61FB— Stacy Herbert (@stacyherbert) January 5, 2021JPMorgan Not the Only One Calling the Shots To some users, this may seem like a bold prediction. The firm is one of the largest financial institutions globally and not the first big player to think this way.  In a recent interview with YouTuber Casey Adams, Tyler Winklevoss, Bitcoin billionaire and cofounder of the Gemini exchange, predicted a $500,000 bitcoin price for similar reasons. Winklevoss explains that bitcoin is a fundamentally stronger store of value and hedge against inflation than gold. And since gold has a $9 trillion market cap, bitcoin will likely overtake it one day. Winklevoss continues that if bitcoin established itself as a mainstream transfer of value and not just a store of value, it could be worth even more as it competes against the global fiat market. These are bold long-term predictions, but they don’t seem implausible, at least according to JPMorgan. If institutions continue to choose bitcoin over gold, the proof-of-work coin could ultimately creep towards the long-term predictions given.      The post JPMorgan Analysts Call for $146,000 Long-Term Bitcoin Price Target appeared first on BeInCrypto.
NEO Bounces Above Support, Could Make Another Breakout Attempt

NEO Bounces Above Support, Could Make Another Breakout Attempt

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 05.01.2021 14:40
The NEO price has been decreasing since its rejection at the $23 resistance area on Sept. 18. It has found support on lower time-frames and could soon make another breakout attempt. Despite this, the NEO/BTC chart remains in bearish price discovery, giving no bullish reversal signs. Long-Term Resistance NEO has been trading below the $23 resistance area since it initially broke down in Oct 2018. Until now, it has made three unsuccessful breakout attempts, the most recent one being on Sept 18, 2020. If it were to break out above this area, the next resistance levels would be at $82, 130, and $208, respectively. Therefore, the lack of overhead resistance could be the trigger for a very sharp rally. However, technical indicators are neutral, leaning bearish. This casts some doubt on the possibility of a breakout. Chart By TradingViewCryptocurrency trader @LisaNEdwards outlined a chart that has the price going all the way to $45. Due to the lack of resistance above the $23 area, a breakout could very well take the price to $45 or even higher. Source: TwitterDescending Resistance Line The daily chart shows that NEO has been following a descending resistance line since it reached a high of $24.87 on Sept. 17. It has validated the line four times so far. Also, we can see a support level at $13.20, which has been validated twice. Technical indicators are bullish, supporting the possibility that NEO will break out above this resistance line and make another attempt to break out above $23. Chart By TradingViewThis possibility is supported by the two-hour chart, which shows a breakout from a short-term descending resistance line and its validation as support afterward. Furthermore, the long lower wicks are a sign of buying pressure, another indication that it will likely head upwards. NEO Chart By TradingViewNEO/BTC Despite the relative bullishness from the NEO/USD pair, the NEO/BTC chart remains firmly bearish. NEO has been decreasing at an accelerated rate since it first broke down from the 9000 satoshi area at the beginning of Dec. There are no bullish reversal signs whatsoever, and the trend remains bearish until it can successfully reclaim the 9000 satoshi area. NEO Chart By TradingViewConclusion To conclude, NEO should gradually increase and break out above the $23 resistance area, potentially moving towards the next resistance levels. Despite this, the NEO/BTC chart remains bearish without yet providing any bullish reversal signs. For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here! Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The views expressed in this article do not reflect those of BeInCrypto. The post NEO Bounces Above Support, Could Make Another Breakout Attempt appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Liverpool FC Players Hit the Blockchain With Sorare Fantasy Football

Liverpool FC Players Hit the Blockchain With Sorare Fantasy Football

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 05.01.2021 19:58
Sorare, the fantasy football game, concluded a licensing deal with Liverpool FC on Jan. 5. The famed Liverpool club becomes the latest club and the first of 2020 to join the digital world with the fantasy football game Sorare. Liverpool Joins Sorare Sorare is a fantasy football game where users collect cards featuring professional players. Collectors effectively become managers and can build their own squad around them. It's Official: Premier League Champions @LFC joins Sorare With Liverpool joining us, we now have the current Champions from the top 5 European Leagues First Edition card sales are on auction now Official digital #LFC cards, only on https://t.co/n4TzfPgh1G pic.twitter.com/rfVZuM6Ydo— Sorare (@SorareHQ) January 5, 2021On Jan. 5, Sorare announced that it had signed a license agreement with Liverpool FC. Sorare will now be able to create digital cards with the images of Liverpool players in its game. There is no information yet on the price for Sadio Mané and Mohamed Salah’s cards.  Sorare broke the news via Twitter: “It’s official: the Premier League champion joins Sorare. With Liverpool’s arrival we now have the current champions of the top five European leagues.” 2020 in Review Sorare sold approximately $6.7 million worth of professional player cards. The site’s trading volume increased from 25,000 euros in December 2019 to approximately $1.7 million in December 2020. Player cards can exchange hands for substantial amounts. Kylian Mbappé’s solo card holds the sales record at $65,700. The card for Manchester United midfielder Bruno Fernandes sold for $62,000 in December. Nonfungible.com estimates that users conducted around 100,000 transactions worth 16,000 ETH in 2020. Just in Time Signing the digital-entity agreement with Sorare came at the right time. The club announced on its website that effective Jan. 5, its retail stores would be closed until further notice. This affects the greater Liverpool area stores. Other locations, namely Chester, Belfast, and Dublin, were already closed due to coronavirus quarantine restrictions. Sorare has been busy in the last few months. Liverpool joins FC Internazionale Milano in December, a month after FC Bayern Munich inked its own deal. Turkish club Fenerbahce S.K was the last of a formidable list of signings in 2020. The post Liverpool FC Players Hit the Blockchain With Sorare Fantasy Football appeared first on BeInCrypto.
GBPUSD Attempts To Pare Losses

GBPUSD Attempts To Pare Losses

John Benjamin John Benjamin 06.01.2021 08:35
Dollar slips, brushing off ISM dataEuro Trades SubduedThe euro currency is trading subdued following the volatile price action on Monday which closed almost flat.Price continues to remain bullish but a breakout off the current levels is needed.Price action is likely to close with an inside bar on Tuesday. This could mean that a breakout from this range could set the short term momentum in the markets.The bias remains mixed, albeit to the upside. The common currency will need to post higher highs to confirm the continuation of the uptrend.The British pound sterling is posting modest gains on Tuesday following the strong sell-off on Monday. But price action remains subdued in comparison to Monday’s prices.The Stochastics oscillator remains near the oversold levels. However, this bias remains mixed.To the downside, the support area near 1.3500 is likely to come in as support.To the upside, for the uptrend to continue, GBPUSD will need to rise above the previous highs near 1.37.Crude Oil Gains Over 5%Oil prices are bullish on Tuesday, rising over 5% intraday.The gains come on the second day of the OPEC+ meeting. Saudi Arabia, alongside other countries, opposed Russia’s proposal of raising production. The current gains in oil prices will likely push it to the psychologically important level of $50.00 and barrel.Following this, we could expect some profit-taking to push prices back lower. The support level near 49.15 is likely to come in initially.As long as prices hold above this level, we could expect to see a continuation higher.If the 49.15 handle is lost, then a deeper correction could be expected toward the 47.17 level of support.Gold Tests 1950 Once AgainThe gains in the precious metal saw price rising to the 1950 level. This marks the second retest of this level since November 2020.Previously, prices fell back right after testing this level. At the moment, the Stochastics oscillator is in the overbought levels.This could potentially signal another correction lower. The immediate support level is near the 1911 – 1950 level for the moment.In the event that gold prices continue to edge higher, then a higher low needs to form above 1950. Above this level, the next clear challenge will be the psychological level of $2000.
Stock Pick Update: Jan. 6 – Jan. 12, 2021

Stock Pick Update: Jan. 6 – Jan. 12, 2021

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.01.2021 14:04
Header: Which stocks could magnify S&P 500’s gains in case it rallies? Take a look at a part of our Stock Pick Update. We have included two Materials stocks and one Energy stock this time.In the last five trading days (December 30 – January 5) the broad stock market has fluctuated following its record-breaking run-up. The S&P 500 index has reached new record high of 3,769.90 on Monday before retracing most of its December advances.The S&P 500 has lost 0.25% between December 30 open and January 5 close. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have lost 0.29%. So stock picks basically followed the broad stock market’s performance last week. Our long stock picks have gained 0.46%, but short stock picks have resulted in a loss of 1.04%.There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.Our last week’s portfolio result:Long Picks (December 30 open – January 5 close % change): NVDA (+3.19%), INTC (+3.05%), ABBV (+1.32%), VRTX (-2.73%), FB (-2.51%)Short Picks (December 30 open – January 5 close % change): DUK (-0.19%), SO (-0.53%), MPC (+2.88%), VLO (+3.07%), SPG (-0.05%)Average long result: +0.46%, average short result: -1.04%Total profit (average): -0.29%Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, January 6 – Tuesday, January 12 period.We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (January 6) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (January 12).We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:buys: 2 x Materials, 2 x Energy, 1 x Technologysells: 2 x Real Estate, 2 x Utilities, 1 x IndustrialsBuy CandidatesECL Ecolab, Inc. - MaterialsStock remains above the support level of $212.50Possible breakout above short-term consolidationThe resistance level is at $220-225CE Celanese Corp. – MaterialsPossible breakout above month-long downward trend lineThe support level is at $125.00 and the resistance level is at $137.50KMI Kinder Morgan Inc. – EnergyStock broke above the downward trend line – uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $13.40 and resistance level is at $15, among othersSumming up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Materials and Energy sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .Thank you.Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *DisclaimerAll essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Despite Signs to the Contrary, Gold at or Near Top

Despite Signs to the Contrary, Gold at or Near Top

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.01.2021 16:13
The thing that most likely raised quite a few eyebrows this week was – in addition to gold’s recent move by itself – the fact that gold rallied mostly without the dollar’s help. Yesterday (Jan. 5) I wrote that one swallow doesn’t make a summer and that a single session rarely changes much.We didn’t have to wait for long – the situation seems to be getting back to normal.Figure 1 - COMEX Gold FuturesAfter the January 4th rally, gold moved only insignificantly higher, and it’s even a bit lower in today’s pre-market trading.Figure 2 - USD IndexWhile the USD Index didn’t decline on Jan. 4, it did in the following days – yesterday and in today’s pre-market trading. So, the gold-USD link seems to be relatively normal after all; it doesn’t – by itself – indicate further relative strength in gold .There are three important things that one needs to note here.The first one is what I already wrote previously – gold is not even above its Nov. 2020 high, while the USDX is below its 2020 low, which means that gold is weak relative to the USD Index and Monday’s (Jan. 4) rally seems to have been an exception.The second one is also something that I wrote about previously – gold is right at its triangle-vertex-based reversal and it might have just topped (given its tiny decline despite a decline in the USDX).The third one is that the USD Index has quite a steep declining resistance line that’s based on the early-November and late-November highs. Each previous attempt to break above it that we saw in the last few weeks failed. But thanks to the steepness of the line, the USD Index is at this line even despite today’s decline. All it takes for the USD Index to break above it is for it to do… nothing. This should be relatively easy given how excessive the bearishness is in this market, how similar it is to what we saw in early 2018, what’s happening in the RSI and even given the similarity between 2018 and now in the cryptocurrencies. You can see details on the chart below.Figure 3 - USDX, USD, GOLD, GDX, and SPX ComparisonBy the way, someone who is not interested in markets or investments at all just called me yesterday to ask if I can help an individual they knew with cryptos – this is a classic case study of something that you see in the final stages of a price bubble. It’s an example of the general public buying, and they tend to enter at the tops. Bitcoin is at about $35,000 when I’m writing these words - you have been warned.How does it all combine? The gold-USD link is intact and a soaring USDX would likely trigger a sell-off in gold. There are many reasons due to which the USDX is likely to rally soon, even the situation in the cryptocurrency market makes the current time similar to early 2018. The triangle-vertex-based reversal in gold is right about now, so it seems that we won’t have to wait for long.Figure 4 - COMEX Silver FuturesAdditionally, silver is showing strength.Figure 5 – VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETFMiners, however, are not showing strength. They even declined yesterday (by just one cent, but still) while gold moved a bit higher, but this is just a small confirmation of what we’ve been seeing for many weeks.Let’s study the above chart:Miners were underperforming gold for many days and weeks, and they showed strength on Monday (Jan. 4). Just like in the case of gold – it was a one-day phenomenon, and one swallow doesn’t make a summer.During the day, the GDX ETF managed to rally above its 50-day moving average – just as it did at its November top. Unlike gold, miners are not very close to their November high. They corrected about 61.8% of the decline from this top. Moreover, please note that miners have corrected about 38.2% of the August – November decline. They haven’t even erased half of the decline that occurred in the previous months – so it’s definitely too early to say that miners started a new powerful rally here. Instead, we see that miners are making lower lows and lower highs.Moreover, please take note of the spike in volume that we saw on Monday. There were very few cases when we saw something similar in the previous months, which was at the November high and at the July high, right before the final 2020 top. The implications are bearish.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Markets Recover Some Losses, While Eyeing Georgia

Markets Recover Some Losses, While Eyeing Georgia

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.01.2021 16:28
Stocks gained on Tuesday (Jan. 5) after the major indices all sold off to start the year on Monday (Jan. 4).News RecapThe Dow Jones closed 167.71 points higher, or 0.6%, at 30,391.60. The S&P 500 advanced 0.7% and the Nasdaq climbed nearly 1%The Georgia Senate run-off elections on Tuesday (Jan. 5) were the main focus of investors. At the time of publication, Democrat candidate Raphael Warnock was declared the winner over the incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler for the first Senate seat up for grabs. The other contested seat between Democrat Jon Ossoff and incumbent Republican David Perdue had yet to be called.The balance of power in the Senate depends on these results and markets could be volatile. Many believe that if the Democrats sweep the Georgia seats and win control, then higher taxes and progressive policies could hurt the market. On the other hand, others believe that a Democrat sweep could bring on larger and quicker stimulus relief.Better-than-expected ISM U.S. manufacturing data came in and helped stocks higher. According to the ISM, manufacturing rose to 60.7 in December from 57.5 in November. The consensus was that the index would slightly decline to 57.Energy stocks led the S&P higher and soared by 4.5% after Saudi Arabia agreed to voluntary production cuts in February and March. Oil giants such as Chevron (CVX) rose 2.7% as a result.Oil futures surged by 4.9% and briefly broke past $50 a barrel for the first time since February.Copper is a precious metal traditionally seen as a leading indicator for the global economy. On Tuesday (Jan. 5), it hit its highest level in nearly eight years and gained more than 2%.Gold also reached an 8-week high due to more declines from the dollar.Boeing (BA) was the best-performing Dow stock and gained 4.4%.U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday (Jan. 4) announced a national lockdown to slow the spread of a new, more contagious, coronavirus strain. Under these restrictions, people are only allowed to leave their homes for essentials, work (if they can’t from home) and exercise. Most schools, including universities, will also move to remote learning.According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University , more than 85 million COVID-19 cases have been confirmed globally, including 20.8 million in the U.S. and 2.7 million in the U.K.Meanwhile, over 5 million people in the U.S. have now received a COVID-19 vaccination.After stocks sharply dropped on Monday (Jan. 4) to kick off 2021, widespread gains on Tuesday (Jan. 5) offset some of these losses. While Monday (Jan. 4) was the first time since 2016 that the Dow Jones started a year off with declines, two major catalysts sent the major averages higher: the oil production agreement reached between OPEC and Russia, and better than expected manufacturing results from December.This tug of war between good news and bad news can be expected in the early part of this new year. Although Monday (Jan. 4) witnessed a sharp pullback (and in my opinion, a predictable one), Tuesday (Jan. 5) witnessed a reversal. In general, though, I still believe that markets have overheated and that between now and the end of Q1 2020, a correction could likely happen.Markets have overheated, and I believe that much of the good news ranging from economic stimulus to vaccines has been baked in. Eventually, the reality on the ground will outweigh the positive news in the short-term.National Securities’ chief market strategist Art Hogan put it best in my opinion, saying that he believes we could see a 5%-8% pullback as early as this month. Hogan said that“we have a tug of war between virus news and vaccine news the better part of six months, and that’s been balanced off by stimulus...That seems to be behind us, and right now I think the virus news takes over a little bit.”Additionally, if the Georgia elections on Tuesday (Jan. 5) go as I think they’ll go (Democrat sweep), it could be a short-term catalyst leading to a potential correction. The balance of power in the U.S. Senate is at stake with these elections. Investors are likely to prefer a divided Senate. If the Democrats sweep and wrestle away Senate control from the Republicans, it could leave President Biden’s powers largely unchecked, and enable him to pass more ambitious, progressive, and less market-friendly policies.At the time of this publication, Democrat candidate Raphael Warnock was declared the winner over the incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler for the first Senate seat up for grabs. The other contested seat between Democrat Jon Ossoff and incumbent Republican David Perdue had yet to be called.According to John Stoltzfus , chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management , the S&P 500 could fall by 10% if the Democratic candidates sweep the Georgia runoffs.“It is thought by not just a few folks on Main Street as well as on Wall Street that if tomorrow’s run-off results in a sweep for the Democrats — providing them with control of the Senate as well as the House — that it would bode ill for business with the likelihood that corporate tax rates could rise substantially,” Stoltzfus said.On the other hand, a Democrat sweep could mean potentially larger stimulus packages - and soon.There is optimistic potential, but the road towards normality will hit inevitable speed bumps and uncertainty. This Senate election and the potential market reactions reflect that.If and when a correction does happen, I believe it will be healthy and a good thing. Corrections are normal market behaviors and happen more frequently than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). Since we have not had one since March 2020, I believe we are long overdue, and the catalysts are there. Most importantly though, a correction could be a great buying opportunity for what I believe will be a strong second half of the year.While there will certainly be short-term bumps in the road, I love the outlook in the mid-term and long-term once vaccines become more widely available. The pandemic is awful right now, and these new infectious strains are quite concerning. But despite this, I believe the positive manufacturing data released on Tuesday (Jan. 5) is a step in the right direction, especially considering all the restrictions that most countries are living through.The consensus is that 2021 could be a strong year for stocks. According to a CNBC survey which polled more than 100 chief investment officers and portfolio managers, two-thirds of respondents said the Dow Jones will most likely finish 2021 at 35,000, while five percent also said that the index could climb to 40,000.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. But I do not believe, with conviction, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Please do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! I’m always happy to hear from you. DrivingSmall-Caps (IWM)Figure 1 - iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)After seeing a sharp pullback since Christmas week, the Russell 2000 briefly returned to its winning ways on Tuesday (Jan. 5). The IWM Russell 2000 ETF which tracks the small-cap index witnessed a 1.55% gain - its best day in a while.Although I genuinely love small-cap stocks in the long-term as the world will eventually reopen, I believe that in the short-term the index has overheated. Until the start of this week, the RSI for the IWM Russell 2000 ETF was at an astronomical 74.54. Although the RSI is at a more manageable 62.84, I still believe that the party of seeing vertical gains is over for now.Small-caps in the short-term will be more sensitive to bad news, and right now there is a lot. Vaccine gains have possibly been baked in by now and stocks just don’t go up vertically the way that the Russell 2000 did between November and late December. It is very possible that small-caps in the near-term could trade sideways before an eventual larger pullback. I truthfully hope small-caps decline a minimum of 10% before jumping back in for long-term buying opportunities.For now, SELL and take short-term profits if you can - but do not fully exit positions .If there is a pullback, this is a STRONG BUY for the long-term recovery. DivingUS Dollar ($USD) Figure 2 - U.S. Dollar ($USD)I have zero faith in the U.S. Dollar as a safe asset, even if we may see some short-term volatility and “risk-off” trades. I still am calling out the dollar’s weakness after several weeks despite its low levels. I expect the decline to continue as well thanks to a dovish Fed.Any time the U.S. Dollar rallies, it is simply “fool’s gold.” Since I started doing these newsletters about a month ago, I have consistently said that any minor rally the dollar would experience would be a mirage. Since the dollar briefly pierced the 91-level on December 9th, it has fallen over 1.8%. Despite the dollar experiencing another mini-rally and nearly piercing the 91-level again on December 22, I remained steadfast in my bearish outlook of the dollar. Since the open on December 23rd, the U.S. Dollar has declined another 1.25%. I believed the dollar would drop back below 90 before the new year, and here we are to start off 2021 with the dollar at 89.41. Since hitting a nearly 3-year high on March 20th, the dollar has plunged nearly 13.8% while emerging markets, foreign currencies, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies continue to strengthen. Gold for example reached an 8-week high on Tuesday (Jan. 5)On days when COVID-19 fears outweigh any other positive sentiments, dollar exposure might be good to have since it is a safe haven. But in my view, you can do a whole lot better than the U.S. dollar for safety.I have too many doubts on the effect of interest rates this low for this long, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation to be remotely bullish on the dollar’s prospects over the next 1-3 years. Meanwhile, the US has $27 trillion of debt, and it’s not going down anytime soon.Another headwind to consider for the dollar is the Georgia Senate election. If Democrats sweep, there could be more aggressive stimulus in the near term. With Democrats controlling both the House and the Senate, more stimulus could be bearish for the dollar.Additionally, according to The Sevens Report , if the dollar falls below 89.13, this could potentially raise the prospect of a further 10.5% decline to the next support level of 79.78 reached in April 2014. With the dollar now at 89.41, we are coming dangerously close.The dollar’s RSI is also nearly oversold once again and is trading significantly below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.For now, where possible, HEDGE OR SELL USD exposure.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Stellar’s XLM up Almost 150% in Last 7 Days

Stellar’s XLM up Almost 150% in Last 7 Days

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 06.01.2021 17:09
Has alt season arrived? It just might have. Stellar Lumens (XLM) has appreciated dramatically over the past week. Before altcoin season commences, bitcoin and ether may need to see drastic price increases. Bitcoin has already broken the $35,000 handle for the first time, and ether is up over 50% in the last week. Although the number one and two cryptocurrencies have been stealing the show, Stellar’s XLM token has been the biggest gainer of the week, by far. In the last seven days, XLM is up over 140%, increasing its price by over 90% in the last 24 hours alone. According to CoinGecko, an online cryptocurrency market capitalization aggregator, this makes XLM the top-performing cryptocurrency out of the 100 largest tokens. What Caused the Recent Price Spike? It’s hard to pinpoint what caused XLM to take off, as there have been few announcements that would point to such a massive increase in growth. The US Treasury of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the largest US-based banking regulator, recently issued guidance on banks using stablecoins for settlement. Some users think Stellar is particularly positioned well for adoption. Since the announcement doesn’t point to any specific blockchain protocol, those users are mostly just speculating, though. XLM massively appreciating this week against the dollar | Source: TradingViewWhat is Stellar and XLM? The Stellar network is a decentralized, open-source protocol that allows cross border transactions between any pair of currencies. Its native cryptocurrency, XLM, is a governance token that serves as a reward mechanism for users who help secure the network. As the ninth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization with a current valuation of almost $9 billion (according to CoinGecko), the Stellar network is one of the biggest players in the blockchain space. Managed by the Stellar Foundation, a non-profit oversight board, Stellar is looking to position itself as an easy and accessible bridge between cryptocurrency and fiat currencies. Since the inception of the Stellar network in 2015, the network has processed over 450 million unique transactions made by over four million individuals. With Stellar’s open-source and decentralized technology, both small-sized developers and gigantic conglomerates can take advantage of the network to potentially increase transaction efficiency. Stellar is looking to continue its mainstream adoption growth by offering users transactions with any currency on the blockchain. It’s unclear whether Stellar will rise at the astronomical rate it currently is, but it may be a project to keep an eye on. The post Stellar’s XLM up Almost 150% in Last 7 Days appeared first on BeInCrypto.
ShapeShift Removes KYC Requirements with Decentralized Protocol Integration

ShapeShift Removes KYC Requirements with Decentralized Protocol Integration

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 06.01.2021 18:48
Long-running cryptocurrency exchange ShapeShift has announced the integration of decentralized protocols in a fundamental shift to its business model. The change allows the exchange to do away with the controversial Know-Your-Customer (KYC) checks added in 2018. Under the previous model, ShapeShift itself was the counterparty to all trades. Advances in exchange protocols, like those underlying popular decentralized exchanges (DEXs), allow trading directly between platform users. With ShapeShift integrating such protocols, it no longer needs to collect user data. ShapeShift Reverts to Non-KYC Model Earlier Wednesday, ShapeShift founder and CEO Erik Voorhees announced the radical shift. As detailed in a Medium post, the cryptocurrency exchange will no longer require users to submit personal information to trade on the platform. Tomorrow is here https://t.co/4y1ril0ftc— Erik Voorhees (@ErikVoorhees) January 6, 2021The post explains the founding of ShapeShift in the wake of the 2014 Mt. Gox hack. Its goal was to reduce counterparty risk for those trading digital assets. ShapeShift’s model allowed users to trade directly from their own wallets. By contrast, centralized exchanges require traders to first deposit to the platform. This places their assets at the mercy of the trading venue’s own security. In the years since ShapeShift’s founding, numerous security breaches at trading venues has put users’ assets and personal information at risk. Until 2018, ShapeShift neither custodied user assets or collected their data. In Sept. 2018, ShapeShift announced the inclusion of KYC checks to its services. The company attracted immense criticism from cryptocurrency observers at the time: Oh I agree, but then you still have the option to shut your business down (in jurisdictions where necessary) or become a KYC honeypot. I have no issue with exchanges doing KYC/AML. Shapeshift's business model was that it was free of that.— WhalePanda (@WhalePanda) September 5, 2018In Wednesday’s post, Voorhees explained that this former business model had placed it under the purview of the Bank Secrecy Act, forcing it to collect user data. ShapeShift CEO: KYC Dissolves the Privacy of All Individuals Voorhees’ post suggests that the CEO is strongly opposed to the collection of user data. Describing such practices as “dangerous,” he cites the 20 million people that suffer from identity theft each year in the United States. Indeed, leaked user data recently grabbed cryptocurrency headlines. As BeInCrypto previously reported, a 2020 security breach at the hardware wallet manufacturer Ledger resulted in victims receiving death threats over the Christmas holidays. The post further explains that KYC data collection is “ineffective”  and that he finds it “plainly unethical.” He writes: “KYC dissolves the privacy not of certain specific individuals accused of wrongdoing, but the privacy of all individuals, none of whom have been accused of anything.” Shift Towards Decentralization Already Begun As part of the announcement, Voorhees revealed that trading support for Ethereum and ERC-20 tokens under the new model was already live. He added that the company would extend the service to bitcoin and “several other leading chains” during Q1 2021. Trading of non-ETH assets will continue for a period under the old model. However, users wishing to do so will still need to prove their identities. Voorhees added that the company hadn’t given up in the fight against “bad guys” and “sinister activity.” ShapeShift will reportedly continue to collaborate with those in the industry monitoring for illicit activity but says KYC checks are an ineffective way to do so. The post ShapeShift Removes KYC Requirements with Decentralized Protocol Integration appeared first on BeInCrypto.
DASH Breaks Out but Struggles to Sustain Rally

DASH Breaks Out but Struggles to Sustain Rally

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 06.01.2021 20:12
The DASH price has broken out from a long-term resistance area but has failed to initiate a significant upward move. While DASH has bounced at a crucial support area, it has yet to confirm a bullish trend. Long-Term Breakout DASH had been following a descending resistance line since Jun. 2018, when it was trading at $225. After four unsuccessful breakout attempts, DASH finally moved above this line at the beginning of Nov. 2020 and is currently in the process of validating it as support. Technical indicators are relatively bullish, even though the MACD appears to have lost some strength. If DASH continues moving upwards, the next resistance areas would be at $135 and $175, respectively. Chart By TradingViewCryptocurrency trader @Mesawine1 outlined a DASH chart stating that DASH has broken out from a descending resistance line and validated it as support afterward. The line coincides with that which we have outlined, and DASH has indeed broken out. Source: TwitterStill Waiting on a Bullish Trend The daily chart provides the first support area at $85.5, the 0.618 Fib retracement level of the entire upward move. DASH has bounced three times on this support area, most recently having done so on Jan. 4. While the bounce here possibly suggests that the correction is done, technical indicators aren’t yet bullish. On the contrary, the Stochastic Oscillator has made a bearish cross, and the RSI is below 50. Chart By TradingViewUntil DASH breaks out from the short-term descending resistance line and/or reclaims the $98 area, we cannot consider the trend bullish. Nevertheless, unlike the daily time-frame, indicators on the lower two-hour time-frame are bullish. DASH Chart By TradingViewWave Count The wave count suggests that DASH is in a long-term wave 3, which began with the March low (shown in white in the image below). Currently, DASH seems to have completed sub-waves 1-2 (shown in orange) and is possibly in sub-wave 3. A likely target for the top of the move is between $173 and $177, found using the Fib extension of wave 1 (white) and external fib retracement of wave 2 (black). Furthermore, this target coincides with the long-term resistance area outlined in the first section, making it a likely target for the top. A decline below the wave 2 low at $62.4 would invalidate this particular wave count. DASH Chart By TradingViewConclusion To conclude, DASH should eventually begin an upward move towards $173 – $177. However, there are no signs that the upward move has begun, thus making it possible that DASH will continue consolidating before eventually beginning to move upwards. For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here! Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The views expressed in this article do not reflect those of BeInCrypto. The post DASH Breaks Out but Struggles to Sustain Rally appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Uniswap Liquidity Surges to $3 Billion Amid Gas Price Crisis

Uniswap Liquidity Surges to $3 Billion Amid Gas Price Crisis

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 07.01.2021 06:52
Liquidity on the world’s most popular decentralized exchange, Uniswap, has skyrocketed despite a massive surge in gas prices. It seems that cryptocurrency traders can’t get enough of token swapping as decentralized exchange popularity continues to grow and eat the market share of their centralized cousins. Uniswap suffered a major liquidity decline when yield farming incentives ended in mid-November 2020. A governance vote was carried out and the decision was not to extend them, resulting in an exodus from the DEX. Fast forward six weeks and that liquidity has returned despite the lack of yield farming pools on the platform. Uniswap Liquidity Tops $3 Billion Uniswap founder Hayden Adams noted the achievement stating that liquidity had surpassed $3 billion and was approaching its all-time high. According to the exchange’s own analytics, that number was $3.36 billion on Nov. 13.   Liquidity on @UniswapProtocol just passed $3.1b, approaching an all time high This time without any UNI liquidity mining incentives Just hundreds of thousands of real users generating millions of dollars in daily trading fees ($14.1M this week) pic.twitter.com/w8OpIK9gXV— Hayden Adams (@haydenzadams) January 6, 2021The liquidity spike began on Jan. 2 and a billion dollars was added over the next five days according to those charts. The top pair on the DEX is wBTC/ETH generating $43 million in volume and $129,000 in trading fees over the past 24 hours. Without any token farming incentives, liquidity providers only get a share of the 0.3% trading fee for their respective pools. 24-hour trading volumes are currently around $750 million according to Uniswap. Better yields can be found elsewhere, but Uniswap still appears to be the preferred choice for token swaps. DeFi Pulse reports slightly different figures with a total value locked of $2.65 billion, but the trend and chart pattern is similar. It also reports that the TVL figure has increased by 7.6% over the past 24 hours but the amount of ETH locked continues to decline. The surge in DeFi activity, and Ethereum’s pumping prices, has added to the gas crisis as average transaction fees hit a record high of $16 on Jan. 4 according to BitInfoCharts. Fee costs have retreated a bit since and the analytics website is currently reporting the average fee at around $9, which is still very painful for anyone not shifting large quantities. UNI Price Update Uniswap’s native UNI token has been flying recently, along with the rest of the cryptocurrency market. UNI prices are flat on the day at $6.24 according to Coingecko but have made an impressive 50% over the past seven days. Prices for the DEX governance token are now not far off its all-time high of just over $7 which came in mid-September when its token farming incentives were launched. The post Uniswap Liquidity Surges to $3 Billion Amid Gas Price Crisis appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Gold Began 2021 With a Bang, Only to Plunge

Gold Began 2021 With a Bang, Only to Plunge

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 07.01.2021 15:44
2021 started off well for gold. It’s not surprising, as January is usually positive for the yellow metal, but the Georgia runoff results may constitute an additional bullish factor in the longer term.What a start to the new year! Gold has begun 2021 very well : as the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (London A.M. Fix) increased from $1,891 on December 31, 2020 to $1,947 on January 5, 2021.Should we be surprised? Not at all! Our readers are perfectly aware that January is historically a good month for gold, so the recent gains are perfectly understandable.And, as a reminder, although I’m cautious in formulating my bullish outlook for gold in 2021, especially later this year, my view remains optimistic and I expect the continuation of gold’s bull market . Although there are some reasons to worry, I don’t think that gold has had its last word.After all, gold’s fundamentals are staying positive . The Fed continues its dovish monetary policy and the real interest rates are kept deeply under zero. The fiscal policy is also loose and the public debt is rising. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has been weakening since March 2020, as the chart below shows.Georgia Runoff’s Implications for GoldGold’s positive fundamentals in the long term can be strengthened by Georgia runoffs. At the time of writing this article, Democrats have already won the U.S. Senate race in Georgia – as Raphael Warnock beat Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler – and lead in the second, edging closed to control of the chamber.You see, if Democrats win both races in Georgia, they will have 50 Senate seats, the same as Republicans. However, in case of split voting results in the Senate, the Vice President (as president of the upper chamber), is the tiebreaker. So, with Kamala Harris as Vice President, Democrats would have control over the Senate.Along with a change in the White House and a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, we would be seeing a “blue sweep” of Congress. Such a revolution could lead to a higher fiscal stimulus, stricter corporate regulation and higher taxes. In other words, investors expect that a Democrat-controlled Senate would expand the U.S. fiscal deficits even further.Indeed, some analysts expect another big stimulus package of about $600 billion to accelerate the economic recovery from the coronavirus-related recession , if Democrats take over the Senate. With unified control over Washington, really big opportunities lie in front of Democrats, including $2,000 stimulus checks. The expectations of larger government spending is positive for gold prices , as higher expenditures would increase the public debt, weaken the greenback (indeed, the dollar fell on January 6), and they could also bring some inflationary effects, if the Fed decides to monetize the new debt (and why should it refuse to do what it’s done for so many years).However, the prospects of larger government borrowing have increased bond yields , which could be negative for the yellow metal in the short-term. This is probably why the price of gold declined on January 6 (although there was also normal profit taking in the gold market). Wall Street’s main indexes opened lower that day, so equities were also hit by the increased possibility of a blue wave and prospects of stricter regulations and higher taxes. With both bond and equities hit by the vision of a Democratic-controlled Senate, gold could be the biggest beneficiary of the Georgia runoff. As a reminder, this scenario (the blue wave) for the U.S. November elections was considered to be the most positive for the gold prices – and nothing changed here for the past two months.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Markets Surge Despite Unprecedented Violence at U.S. Capitol

Markets Surge Despite Unprecedented Violence at U.S. Capitol

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 07.01.2021 16:11
In a news-filled day, the Dow Jones hit an all-time high on Wednesday (Jan. 6), despite unprecedented unrest taking place in Washington D.C.News RecapThe Dow climbed 438 points or 1.4% and briefly rose more than 600 points earlier in the day. The S&P 500 also gained 0.6% and hit an intraday record, while the Nasdaq fell 0.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 surged by nearly 4%.The day began with investors focused on the Georgia U.S. Senate special election runoff . Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler, with other Democrat Jon Ossoff announced as the winner over incumbent Republican Sen. David Perdue later in the day.With a Democrat sweep in Georgia, the party now has control of the Senate. Although it is a 50-50 split (with two independents) in the Senate, both Democrats win, they have full control because Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will serve as the tiebreaker vote.Many believe that because President-elect Biden, a Democrat, has a House and Senate under Democrat control, he could more easily pass higher taxes and progressive policies that may hurt the market. On the other hand, others believe that this Democrat sweep could bring into effect a larger and quicker stimulus relief bill.The real news of the day was what happened at the U.S. Capitol building. After President Trump (and his family) led a “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington, D.C. to protest Congress’ certification of Joe Biden as the next president, angry MAGA supporters did the unthinkable and stormed the Capitol.Wednesday (Jan. 6) was the first time since 1814 that the Capitol building was physically breached by hostile actors.The invasion of the Capitol occurred after Vice President Mike Pence rejected President Trump’s calls to block Joe Biden’s election confirmation. Shortly after, the Capitol went into full lockdown.Later that night, the Capitol was secured and Congress reconvened to officially certify Biden as the president. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) moved higher due to the unrest at the Capitol.Caterpillar (CAT) surged 5.5%, while big banks such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) gained 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Other names and sectors that could be aided by Biden’s agenda rose as well such as the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) which boomed 8.4%.Tech lagged on the day due to fears of higher taxes and higher stimulus potential. Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN) each fell more than 2%, while Netflix (NFLX) dipped 3.9%.The 10-year Treasury note yield topped 1% for the first time since March.What a newsworthy day Wednesday (Jan. 6) was. What started as a day focused on Senate runoff elections with the balance of Senate power at stake, ended with President-elect Biden being officially confirmed as the next president. But in between? A mob took over the capitol building! Did you ever think you would read that sentence in your lifetime?Love him or hate him, President Trump is an eccentric character to put it lightly. Scorned, and still convinced that he won the election, Trump and his bruised ego whipped his supporters into a frenzy during a “Stop the Steal” rally and encouraged them to march towards the Capitol and make their voices heard. Somehow the protest turned into a storming of the Capitol after Vice President Mike Pence refused to overturn the election. Pence was later ushered out of the Senate and the Capitol went into lockdown.What’s truly shocking here is that the markets still went up! In fact, the Dow hit yet ANOTHER all-time high! Whether you like it or not, this has to give you some sort of faith in the resiliency of capitalism,The results of the Georgia election can be credited for the market surge.Although some sectors plummeted due to fears of higher taxes and stricter regulations, with full Democrat control of the Presidency, Senate, and House, there is clarity for one, and expectations of further spending and government stimulus.Goldman Sachs expects another big stimulus package of around $600 billion . While this could be bad for the national debt and have long-term consequences, in the short-term, it could send the economy heating. Small-cap stocks surged as a result.I still believe that there will be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news. Many of these moves upwards or downwards are based on emotion and sentiment, and I believe there could be some serious volatility in the near-term. Although markets on Wednesday (Jan. 6) may have been overly excited from the “Blue Wave” thanks to Georgia, consider this: the Capitol was invaded and the pandemic is still wreaking havoc! Even though the markets gained and the 10-year treasury ticked above 1% for the first time since March, the VIX still rose which means that fear is on the rise.There was no pullback to end 2020 as I anticipated, but I still believe that markets have overheated in the short-term, and that between now and the end of Q1 2020 a correction could happen.Carl Icahn seemingly agrees with me, and told CNBC on Monday (Jan. 4) that “in my day I’ve seen a lot of wild rallies with a lot of mispriced stocks, but there is one thing they all have in common. Eventually they hit a wall and go into a major painful correction.”National Securities’ chief market strategist Art Hogan also believes that we could see a 5%-8% pullback as early as this month.I believe though that corrections are healthy and could be a good thing. Corrections happen way more often than people realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). I believe we are overdue for one since there has not been one since the lows of March 2020. This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what I believe will be a great second half of the year.While there will certainly be short-term bumps in the road, I love the outlook in the mid-term and long-term once vaccines become more widely available. The pandemic is awful right now, and these new infectious strains out of the U.K. and South Africa are quite concerning. But despite this, I believe the positive manufacturing data released on Tuesday (Jan. 5) is a step in the right direction, especially considering all the restrictions that most countries are living through.The consensus is that 2021 could be a strong year for stocks. According to a CNBC survey which polled more than 100 chief investment officers and portfolio managers, two-thirds of respondents said the Dow Jones will most likely finish 2021 at 35,000, while five percent also said that the index could climb to 40,000.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. But I do not believe, with conviction, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen. Can Small-caps Own 2021?Small-caps are the comeback darlings of the week. Although I believed that the Russell 2000’s record-setting run since the start of November was coming to an end, it has rallied over 5% in the last two trading days. Thanks to a Democrat sweep in Georgia and hopes of further economic stimulus, small-cap stocks have climbed back towards record highs.I love small-cap stocks in the long-term, especially as the world reopens. A Democrat-dominated Congress could help these stocks too. But I believe that in the short-term, the index, by any measurement, has simply overheated. Before Jan. 4, the RSI for the I WM Russell 2000 ETF was at an astronomical 74.54. I called a pullback happening in the short-term due to this RSI, and it happened. Well now the RSI is back above 72, and I believe that a bigger correction in the near-term could be imminent.Stocks simply just don’t always go up in a straight line, and that’s what the Russell 2000 has essentially been between November and December.What this also comes down to is that small-caps are more sensitive to the news - good or bad. I believe that vaccine gains have possibly been baked in by now. There could be another near-term pop due to hopes of further stimulus, but I believe that it’s likely possible that small-caps in the near-term could trade sideways before an eventual larger pullback.I truthfully hope small-caps decline a minimum of 10% before jumping back in for long-term buying opportunities.SELL and take Wednesday’s (Jan. 6) profits if you can- but do not fully exit positions .If there is a pullback, this is a STRONG BUY for the long-term recovery.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
What’s Next for BNB After Another All-Time High?

What’s Next for BNB After Another All-Time High?

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 07.01.2021 13:54
The Binance Coin (BNB) price reached a new all-time high on Dec. 29 and has been moving upwards since. BNB should continue moving upwards towards the targets of $50 and potentially near $70. BNB Reaches All-Time High On Jun. 22, BNB reached an all-time high of $39.51. It began a significant downward movement afterward, which lead to a low of $6.38 on Mar. 13. However, it has been moving upwards since. On Dec. 29, it reached a new all-time high and has been increasing, reaching a high of $44.90 to date. The previous resistance area at $39 is now likely to act as support. Chart By TradingViewFuture Movement Cryptocurrency trader @Tradingtank outlined a BNB chart, stating that it’s likely to increase. They gave targets of $46 and $52. Source: TwitterTechnical indicators on the daily time-frame are bullish, supporting the continuation of an upward move, even though the rally is overextended. However, since BNB is trading at an all-time high and there are no resistance levels above the current price, we need to use a fib extension to determine future targets. Chart By TradingViewFurthermore, the two-hour chart shows that BNB is also following an ascending support line, which coincides with the minor $42 support area. As long as BNB is trading above this level, the trend is bullish. Similar to the daily time-frame, indicators on the two-hour time-frame are also bullish. BNB Chart By TradingViewWave Count The wave count suggests that BNB is probably in wave 3 of a long-term bullish impulse (shown in white below), which began in March. A possible target for the top of the entire move is at $69.58, which would give waves 1:3 a 1:1.61 ratio, common in bullish impulses. BNB Chart By TradingViewThe short-term chart shows that BNB is likely nearing the top of sub-wave 3 (shown in orange), while the minor sub-wave count is given in black. The most likely targets for the top of sub-wave 3 are at $46 and $50-$51, found using a combination of fib extensions (orange) and projections (black). BNB Chart By TradingViewConclusion To conclude, as long as BNB is trading above its short-term ascending support line, it should continue rallying towards $50 and possibly $70. For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here! Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The views expressed in this article do not reflect those of BeInCrypto. The post What’s Next for BNB After Another All-Time High? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
South Korean Gaming Conglomerate to Purchase Bithumb for $460M

South Korean Gaming Conglomerate to Purchase Bithumb for $460M

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 07.01.2021 14:58
Nexon, one of the largest gaming companies in South Korea and the world, has announced that it will be acquiring the Bithumb cryptocurrency exchange for approximately 500 billion won, approximately $460 million. South Korean agency Maekyung broke the news, stating that Nexon and Bithumb have officially signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to kickstart the process The deal will result in Nexon acquiring a ~65% stake in the Bithumb exchange. Bithumb is currently the largest cryptocurrency exchange in South Korea, so the acquisition may be a natural fit for both companies. Not Nexon’s First Foray Into Cryptocurrency If the deal goes through, this will be Nexon’s third acquisition of a major cryptocurrency exchange. The gaming giant is quickly becoming one of the most dominant players in the crypto exchange space. Nexon also owns other popular exchanges like Bitstamp and Korbit. Bithumb has reportedly been looking to offload ownership to a buyer for some time. Another firm almost acquired it in 2018, though, it may finally have found an ideal buyer in Nexon. The Deal Is Not Guaranteed Although an MOU has already been signed, it doesn’t guarantee that the deal will reach completion. There are still uncertainties surrounding the management practices at Bithumb. South Korea’s Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency investigated the exchange and its chairman Lee Jung Hoon in September. Authorities accused the firm of selling its native cryptocurrency, BXA, without listing the coin. Bithumb allegedly sold 30 billion won in tokens, almost $30 million, causing heavy investor losses after not listing the coin. Institutional Money Pouring In The investment reveals the organization’s confidence in the longevity of the cryptocurrency trading market. Several large international organizations have been investing or integrating crypto trading into their platforms. One such example is PayPal, which recently launched an internal trading platform that allows users to trade major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ether. PayPal’s exchange just set a new milestone with $100 million in daily trading volume. This figure is particularly high for a firm that has basically just launched trading capabilities. With all-time high bitcoin prices and ether on the cusp of its own record, capital is likely to continue pouring in. The post South Korean Gaming Conglomerate to Purchase Bithumb for $460M appeared first on BeInCrypto.
BAL Breaks Out and Reclaims Numerous Resistance Levels

BAL Breaks Out and Reclaims Numerous Resistance Levels

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 07.01.2021 17:10
The Balancer (BAL) price has been increasing since breaking out from a descending resistance line on Dec. 29. BAL has reclaimed numerous resistance areas and looks like it will rally towards at least $26. Breakout and Reclaim of Resistance BAL had been following a descending resistance line since Sept. 13. It made two unsuccessful breakout attempts before finally moving above the line on Dec. 28. On Jan. 6, it also moved above the $18 area, which previously acted as resistance. BAL is currently in the process of validating it as support. If it continues rallying, the next resistance area would be at $26.80, the 0.618 Fib retracement level of the entire downward move. The following resistance area is at the all-time high price of $38.18. Technical indicators on the daily time-frame are bullish, supporting the possibility that the upward momentum will continue. Chart By TradingViewCryptocurrency trader @Mesawine1 outlined a BAL chart, which shows the same breakout from a descending resistance line. Since the tweet, BAL has already reclaimed the first resistance area at $18 and is now moving towards the next one at $26.80. A breakout above this level would likely take BAL towards a new all-time high. Source: TwitterShort-Term Movement The shorter-term six-hour chart supports the possibility of upwards continuation. BAL has broken out from a short-term descending resistance line and has followed that up with a reclaim of the $15 and the $17.50 area. As long as it’s trading above the latter, it should continue moving upwards. Despite some bearish divergence on lower time-frames, technical indicators are still bullish, similar to those on the daily time-frame. Chart By TradingViewWave Count The most likely wave count suggests that BAL is currently in an extended wave 3 (shown in white below), which has a possible target of $26.75. The target is found by giving waves 1:3 a 1:1.61 ratio, common in such impulses. Furthermore, it coincides with the previously outlined resistance area. The sub-wave count is given in orange. The loss of the $15 minor support area would invalidate this particular wave count. BAL Chart By TradingViewConclusion To conclude, BAL should continue rallying until it reaches the next closest resistance area at $26.70. A breakout above this level could take it towards a new all-time high price. For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here! Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The views expressed in this article do not reflect those of BeInCrypto. The post BAL Breaks Out and Reclaims Numerous Resistance Levels appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Silver, you got to know how!

Silver, you got to know how!

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.01.2021 13:47
We have identified the most commonly made mistake in technical analysis to be the representation. Representation equals psychology! Psychology being the most important aspect of trading means that the way charts are represented is extremely important. Rarely do we see trading supportive setups. Silver, you got to know how!Here are a few tips we find useful to get the best out of your chart space.Less is not always more.In our opinion charts from cell phones are useless. Their aspect ratios and general size do not allow for the professional to translate into a decision-making process that is conducive to execution. While larger handheld devices and small laptops are an upgrade to these stamp size representations, we still vote for a multi-screen trade setup for the following reasons. For back testing and chart analysis you want to see nuances of various time frames represented next to each other.For execution, you want a quiet workspace meaning it isn’t conducive to flip between workspaces or expand and collapse windows. Take small time frames. Sorting and execution windows should be outside your main visual sensory field as they produce a lot of data leading to data exhaustion over time. Split widescreen monitors into halves or thirds because stretched chart windows distort the ratio to the point that trend and range differentiation are hard to make out. This being one of the most important things to read out of a chart.Silver, Monthly Arithmetic Chart. Silver, you got to know how!Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 7th, 2021.Another aspect little known is the principle on how to use arithmetic versus logarithmic charts. You want to use arithmetic charts for shorter time segments to have an accurate representation of trends and ranges. For long term monthly data, it is advisable to use logarithmic representation. This is due to the fact that event proportions get swallowed once price ranges are stretched.Let us illustrate. If you compare the above arithmetic chart, from exactly ten years ago with the logarithmic one below, you will find a vast difference in how one can interpret price movement at first glance. Looking at a larger time segment with vast price movement the arithmetic representation “swallows” data through compression. What is interpreted as insignificant noise (to the very left of the chart) in the arithmetic chart, with a two-year sideways segment, becomes significant in the logarithmic chart where one can see much more clearly that we had a major downtrend of a 32% price drop.  Silver, Monthly Chart, Logarithmic, Silver, you got to know how!Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 7th, 2021.Secondly, the logarithmic representation shows much more clearly that from this price drop low at US$4.05 a clear uptrend established. This with two major up legs advancing to US$49.83, representing a 1,130% gain.Silver, Monthly Chart. Starting the year with a large time frame overview:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 7th, 2021.Why a correct representation like this is significant becomes obvious when looking at the present time. The recent directional advancement of Silver prices is birthed out of a previous 34% drop. This is even more significant if you include the quick washout, represented by the down wick, which accounts for a 45% drop. Prices have more than doubled since those lows. Enough reason to look in the past of Silver price behavior at the beginning of possible longer trends. Without the use of a logarithmic presentation, one might have not ever noticed a possible similarity.In short, it is essential once looking at larger time stretches on larger time frame charts to consider the use of a logarithmic representation. Otherwise, you might lose analysis opportunity through chart compression.Technology marketing tries to sell us all sorts of gadgets blinding us to believe that technological toys empower a better trading result. Wrong! Do not get lured into trading on the fly from your cell phone while driving. Trading is like a competitive sport. You do not win a gold medal at the Olympics while texting your buddies. If you want to win the game of market participation you need to dedicate your time in a quiet space with appropriate tools.Silver, you got to know how!Execution requires a maximum reduced data density to keep some powder dry for mental capacity in case of surprises, distractions, and other abnormalities to not get into a stress-induced reactionary intuitive field but rather stay focused. Only an anticipatory rule-based execution in this counterintuitive environment leads to success. This principle demands a chart representation as quiet as possible to keep data overloads at a minimum. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Early 2021 BAN Trader Setups Show Incredible Success

Early 2021 BAN Trader Setups Show Incredible Success

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 09.01.2021 02:33
Even though our BAN Trader Pro technology has just been released to members, the early price rotation in 2021 has shown incredible success the first week. Early 2021 BAN Trader Protriggers, used as discretionary trading signals for members, have caught some incredible early success recently.The BAN Trader Pro system allocates trading capital into four high momentum ETFs with each new leg up in the stock market that meets the BAN trigger setup. This allows BAN Trader Pro members to capitalize on the strongest sectors presenting the highest BAN momentum ranking. Over many weeks and months, continuing to focus on the best assets to own (BAN: Best Asset Now) and trading only the best assets when proper alignment between the market and these momentum sector BAN setups occur, we are able to target stronger trends with reduced draw-downs and risks.How to Benefit Using BAN Trader Pro HotlistYet, one of the best added values for our BAN Trader Pro members is the BAN Hot List. This is a Daily list of the BAN sectorsetups which also includes new BAN triggers that fall somewhere below the top ten BAN ranking sectors. This allows our BAN Trader Pro members to take additional trades, as they like as a discretionary trade. These explosive trade setups coupled with our detailed position management guidelines packs a powerful punch for the growth of any account using them.This partial screen capture of our current BAN Trade Pro Hotlist (blurred to protect Member-only content), highlights how to view the best ETFs to ownas any given time and all market conditions. The focus is on the top 10 sector ETFs and we want to see a new trigger, and for the long-term STAGE analysis to be BULLISH, the short-term TREND to be UP, and overall stock market sentiment to be RISK-ON, whichmeans investors are taking risks and betting on high growth in these sectors.As you will see there have been a lot of great opportunities recently. They are all listed low on the BAN Hotlist software which we post every day for our premium subscribers.The strength of the BAN Trader Pro technology is the ability to catch strong momentum/trend trades in an “aligned” market trend format across various market sectors. We call this the Best Asset Now (BAN) system for a reason. The higher the rankingof the BAN technology, the stronger the potential future trends. When a symbol moves up the BAN Trade Hotlist, it is growing in strength andmomentum. This is where we look for the best BAN trade setups when the stock market gives us a new buy signal fora major leg higher.The additional BAN trade signals that fall below a new major market buy signal, and the end of the stock market trend are power setups for 7-15% moves within a couple weeks of a new trigger. We only want to trade the best assets in thestrongest trends. Our members are given the BAN Trader Pro Hotlist every morning before the opening bell. This allows them to make their own trading decisions using the BAN setups and to execute any valid BAN trade they want when looking for another trade to keep their portfolio working hard for them.Daily & 10-Minute Chart of BAN TradeThis daily and 10-minute chart of the BAN trade trigger that was generated at the end of the trading day as all signals are (EOD).Daily & 10-Minute Chart of BANTradeThis is another BAN trade trigger, generated. Trigger was 21 days ago, its moved up 13.47% and its likely going much higher.2021 is going to be an incredible year for BAN Trader subscribers because of the big trends, high volatility, stimulus,and policies with the Biden administration. The time is now to learn and trade the Best Assets Now using our proven sector rotation strategy. Our BAN Trader Pro technology is proving to be an incredible technology advancement allows us to dominate the generate Alpha. We urge you to take advantage of the BAN Trader Pro technology and prepare for the big trends that should continue throughout all of 2021 and into 2022 and beyond.I am teaching this BAN trading strategy free this week in this 1-hour webinar.Its everything you need to trade this on your own, no proprietary trading tools, or strings attached. Learn this strategy now and join me in this webinarhttps://joinnow.live/s/ClJSoPWe believe everytrader needs an edge to gain an advantage in the markets and that is exactly what we teach and deliver atwww.TheTechnicalTraders.com. After two decades of R&D, and hundreds of thousands of dollars building and testing, we've built the BAN Trader Pro so that we can maintain that edge over the markets and generate oversized annual return on investment.Happy TradingChris VermeulenFounder of Technical Traders Ltd.NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation, or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research. It is provided for educational purposes only. Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readersin an effort to try to keep you well informed.
USD grinds higher despite poor payrolls report

USD grinds higher despite poor payrolls report

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.01.2021 09:16
Euro Falls For A Second Consecutive SessionThe euro currency was down over 0.41% into Friday’s close, marking the second session of consecutive declines. The drop comes after the euro touched highs of 1.2284 on Wednesday last week.While it is too early to call for a correction, the current drop remains consistent with the overall view. The EURUSD has been in a strong uptrend with little to no major corrections.For the moment, the line in the sand comes in at the 1.2177 level of support. If the euro loses this handle, then we expect to see a move to the 1.2050 level of support next.While this could weaken the upside bias, there is still scope for a rebound. But a close below 1.2050 will no doubt accelerate the declines to 1.1900 next.GBPUSD Closes Flat As Consolidation ContinuesThe British pound sterling is seen trading flat as the consolidation near the top end of the rally continues.The cable has been in a strong volatile ride since late last year due to the Brexit trade talks. This has pushed the currency to test highs above 1.3650.However, following the gains, price has been trading rather flat. On the short term charts, we see the consistent lower highs forming.This could result in the descending triangle pattern likely to emerge. If the GBPUSD closes below the 1.3500 level of support, then we expect to see further declines lower.The cable will most likely move back within the sideways range of 1.3500 and 1.3150 levels.Crude Oil Rises To A Nine-Month HighOil prices continue to push higher with prices settling near 52.60 last Friday. It marks the highest levels since February.The gains also come with nine weekly consecutive gains so far. With price action cutting past the trendline from below, we expect to see a continuation higher.But if price action retraces the gains, then a correction back to the 49.00 level is quite possible. Establishing support at this level will continue to see the bullish bias intact.The next key level to the upside will come near the 55.00 level which marks a major support/resistance level back in late 2019/early 2020.Gold Prices Push Past 1850The precious metal continues to post strong declines. On Friday, the commodity lost over 3% into the close to settle at 1847.Prices are now trading near a three-week low. The weekly bearish price action candlestick is also likely to signal a continuation lower.The next key level of support comes near the 1817 level. If gold prices lose this handle, then we might get to see a stronger decline.The next main support level will be found near the 1671 level and would potentially mark a strong retracement after testing new all-time highs just a few months ago.
Bitcoin riches through sitting on one’s hands

Bitcoin riches through sitting on one’s hands

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 11.01.2021 12:11
Jesse Livermore said: “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.” Easier said than done. We are wired to take quick small profits and find it as such extremely difficult to sit through lengthy-time periods to ensure larger profits should a trade develop into a sustainable trend.While trailing stops most often fail being set too tight motivated again by the fear of losing one’s gains, one solution is our quad exit method that we use in our free telegram channel in which we post-trade entries and exits in real-time.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Taking profits into the extended move:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of January 9th, 2021Here is an example of the application of this psychological and money management tool. We entered a long trade on April 15th last year at US$6,726. Shortly thereafter, we took partial profits to erase risk at US$6,993 and locked in some more profits at US$7,248. This did not just provide for solid trade results. Most of all it satisfied the psychological hunger to now be able to sustain the idea of “sitting on one’s hands”. With a preset like this, we were able to let the remaining position size of twenty-five percent, fittingly named “the runner”, do its thing. We exited the trade last week on 1/9/2021 at US$40,729 (a 506% profit). An exhaustion move with a confirmed counter directional signal on a larger time frame warranted to do so. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Ten runners still on the move:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of January 9th, 2021 bStill, we would be in trouble without another additional methodology in play. We call these reloads. Far from a typical form of a high-risk methodology of pyramiding, this way of adding an individual low-risk trade allows for ending up with multiple runners should a trend develop as it has over the last three quarters in Bitcoin.With this methodology, there is no need to pick tops and bottoms. Surviving runners extend into building a large position size. In the same way, partial profit-taking of such a position through closing out trades, meaning reducing overall position size is possible. Useful if possible trend exhaustion, distribution zones, or otherwise target zones establish themselves throughout the upward move.The weekly chart above shows with yellow arrows entry points of trades we posted live in our free Telegram channel where we still have the runner portion exposed to the market. It is this combination of tools we apply that allows us to be left with choices. This in regard to additional entries and various partial profit taking points. It allows us to let a good portion ride while sitting on our hands.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin riches through sitting on one’s hands:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of January 10th, 2021 cNow that the cat is out of the bag and mass media has pointed out Bitcoin´s staggering gains last week, professionals typically fade the money coming in from amateurs stimulated by the hype. But not so fast. Are we seeing Bitcoin’s typical extreme retracement? In the weekly chart above we have identified four (A to D) major retracement support zones.All-time new highs from 2017, retested in November last year near US$19,888 (D).The most dominant supply zone marked by a “POC” of the 4th leg up volume analysis near $23,512 (C).Fibonacci retracement 0.618 with price zone near US$27,392 (B).Fibonacci retracement 0.786 with price zone near US$33,945 (A)Yes, we had a four-leg move up from US$3,782 and we are extended without a doubt, but who says we won’t find ourselves in a few years at levels tenfold from here. Livermore was right in his approach of sitting on one’s hands. Luckily our approach takes the worry and guesswork out of these debates. We let the runners run. Should we see a deep retracement we get additional low-risk entries with their runners possibly surviving as well. And yes, if you are relying on an, in part, income-producing system this is certainly a spot right here to take partial profits off the sum of your runners. What is not wise is to tighten stops here or typically place them somewhere where they are emotionally comfortable in the middle and have the typical experience that they just get nicked out before prices advance further again.Bitcoin riches through sitting on one’s handsJesse Livermore also said: “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.” With the above-described methodology, one doesn’t need to. This self-regulatory system allows taking the agony of being right, the need for perfect timing, and most of all the hardship of not letting the cash register ring out of the equation. Livermore also stated: “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon”. We find that the illustrated approach is one way to circumvent the difficulties of participating in a steep trend without its typical pitfalls. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
What Underperforms Gold and Heralds More Declines?

What Underperforms Gold and Heralds More Declines?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.01.2021 17:03
With the gold miners underperforming gold, and gold underperforming the USDX, it was only a matter of time before the house of cards came crashing down.The writing has been on the wall all along with signs for all to see. On Jan. 5, I warned that the GDX was approaching an inflection point in the following way:The GDX ETF managed to rally above its 50-day moving average – just as it did at its November top. Moreover, please take note of the spike in volume that we saw yesterday. There were very few cases when we saw something similar in the previous months, which was at the November high and at the July high, right before the final 2020 top. The implications are bearish.And despite Friday’s (Jan. 8) 4.82% sell-off, the GDX’s last hurrah is likely to end with even more fireworks.Please see the chart below:Figure 1 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), GDX and Slow Stochastic Oscillator Chart Comparison – 2020With technicals foretelling the decline, many bullion bulls closed their eyes to the plethora of warnings signs that you can find in the previous Gold & Silver Trading Alerts.For example:A huge volume spike in the first session of 2021 was very similar to what we saw at the November 2020 and July 2020 tops – this heralded declines.The GDX’s stochastic oscillator bounced above 80, mirroring similar readings that preceded five pullbacks since September.Arguably the most important indication that keeps on flashing the very bearish signals , the GDX’s underperformance relative to gold remained intact.In addition, the GDX is on the cusp of forming a head and shoulders pattern . If you analyze the chart above, the area on the left (marked S) represents the first shoulder, while the area in the middle (H) represents the head and the area on the right (second S) represents the potential second shoulder.Right now, $33.7-$34 is the do-or-die area. If the GDX breaks below this (where the right shoulder forms) it could trigger a decline back to the $24 to $23 range (measured by the spread between the head and the neckline; marked with green).Since there’s a significant support at about $31 in the form of the 50% retracement based on the 2020 rally, and the February 2020 high, it seems that we might see the miners pause there. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a pullback from these levels to about $33, which could serve as the verification of the completion of the head-and-shoulder pattern. This might take place at the same time, when gold corrects the decline to $1,700, but it’s too early to say with certainty.Also, let’s not forget that the GDX ETF has recently invalidated the breakout above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the 2011 – 2016 decline.Figure 2 - GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (2009 – 2020)When GDX approached its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, it declined sharply – it was right after the 2016 top. Are we seeing the 2020 top right now? This is quite possible – PMs are likely to decline after the sharp upswing, and since there is just more than one month left before the year ends, it might be the case that they move north of the recent highs only in 2021.Either way, miners’ inability to move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and their invalidation of the tiny breakout is a bearish sign.The same goes for miners’ inability to stay above the rising support line – the line that’s parallel to the line based on the 2016 and 2020 lows.In summary, the GDX’s train has likely gone off the rails, with silver in the front car and gold in the back. And as the technical derailment unfolds, a resurgent U.S. dollar is likely to accelerate the impact. Furthermore, if the S&P 500 hops on board – and declines from its current state of euphoria – damage to the precious metals mining stocks could be particularly violent.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Stocks Post Records to Start 2021

Stocks Post Records to Start 2021

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.01.2021 21:31
The indices hit record highs yet again to close off the first week of 2021 and weighed unrest, poor jobs data, and further prospects of economic stimulus.News RecapBoth the Dow and S&P 500 closed the week off with four-day win streaks. The Dow climbed 56.84 points, or 0.2%, at 31,097.97. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 3,824.68, and the Nasdaq popped 1% to 13,201.98. The small-cap Russell 2000 declined 0.25%.The Dow and S&P 500 each gained more than 1% on the week, while the Nasdaq gained 2.4%, and the Russell 2000 surged by nearly 6%. These gains to start the year came despite the unprecedented unrest and invasion of the Capitol by Trump supporters on Wednesday (Jan. 6).Despite Democrats winning full control of the Senate, the Dow briefly declined 200 points midday after moderate Democrat Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia told The Washington Post that he would “ absolutely not ” support a round of $2,000 stimulus checks. Manchin mildly walked back those comments later in the day and said he was “undecided,” and not outright opposed to it.The U.S. economy lost 140,000 jobs in December , according to the Labor Department. This is significantly worse than the estimated gain of 50,000 according to economists polled by Dow Jones.The 10-year yield rose to its highest level since March 20, and broke above 1.1%.Coca-Cola (KO) rose 2.2% to lead the Dow higher. The consumer discretionary and real estate sectors each rose more than 1%, lifting the S&P 500. The Nasdaq got a boost from Tesla, which popped 7.8%.The first week of 2021 largely continued where 2020 left off- with turmoil, tension, and a barrage of news. Another 2020 pattern continued to kick off the new year- a resilient market.A week that started off with a sharp sell-off concluded with sharp weekly gains, all-time highs, and a four-day winning streak for the Dow and S&P 500. This is despite the first assault on the U.S. Capitol since 1814, despite COVID-19 cases continuing to wreak havoc, and despite a disastrous jobs report.How could this be?The results of the Georgia election can first and foremost be credited for the market surge.Although tech initially plummeted due to fears of higher taxes and stricter regulations, with full Democrat control of the Presidency, Senate, and House, there is finally clarity and expectations of further spending and government stimulus.Although President-elect Joe Biden had promised to pass a measure for bigger stimulus checks if Democrats secured control of the Senate, comments from West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat, spooked investors for a time on Friday (Jan. 8). Although Manchin briefly walked these comments back, according to Bill Miller, founder of Miller Value Partners , “Nothing is going to get passed if they can’t get the moderates in the Democratic Party, or the Republican Party for that matter, to go along with (further stimulus).”President-elect Biden said Friday (Jan. 8) that a new aid package would be “ in the trillions of dollars .” This comes after Goldman Sachs stated that it expects another big stimulus package of around $600 billion . Value stocks and small-cap stocks have surged as a result of these prospects.Despite the prospect of further stimulus that could heat up the economy, the short-term tug of war between good news and bad news will continue. Many of these moves upwards or downwards are based on emotion and sentiment, and there could be some serious volatility in the near-term. Although markets have kicked off the new year with excitement from the “Blue Wave”, consider this.Stocks have overstretched valuations, the Capitol was invaded, the pandemic is out of control, and the vaccine roll-outs have been clunky at best.Even though the markets saw a nice weekly gain to kick off 2021 and the 10-year treasury is at its highest level in months, a correction between now and the end of Q1 2020 is likely.National Securities’ chief market strategist Art Hogan also believes that we could see a 5%-8% pullback as early as this month.Generally, corrections are healthy, good for markets, and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). I believe we are long overdue for one. We haven’t seen a correction since March 2020. This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what I believe will be a great second half of the year.While there will certainly be short-term bumps in the road, I love the outlook in the mid-term and long-term once the growing pains of rolling out vaccines stabilize. The pandemic is awful and the numbers are horrifying. But despite this, and despite the horrendous jobs report, there is one report released this past week that could be a step in the right direction - the ISM manufacturing data.The consensus is that 2021 could be a strong year for stocks. According to a CNBC survey which polled more than 100 chief investment officers and portfolio managers, two-thirds of respondents said the Dow Jones will most likely finish 2021 at 35,000, while five percent also said that the index could climb to 40,000.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. I don’t think that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen. Can Small-caps Own 2021?Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)Small-caps were the comeback kids this week. Although I believed that the Russell 2000’s record-setting run since the start of November was coming to an end, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) had itself quite a week and rallied 7.35% since January 4th. Small-cap stocks were the most excited from the Democrat sweep in Georgia due to hopes of further economic stimulus on the horizon.I love small-cap stocks in the long-term, especially as the world reopens. A Democrat-dominated Congress could help these stocks too, but in the short-term, the index, by any measurement, has simply overheated. Before January 4th, the RSI for the IWM Russell 2000 ETF was at an astronomical 74.54. I called a pullback happening in the short-term due to this RSI, and it happened. Well now the RSI is back above 74 again, and I believe that a more significant correction in the near-term could be imminent.Stocks simply just don’t always go up in a straight line, and that’s what the Russell 2000 has essentially been between November and December. It’s looked eerily similar this week.What this also comes down to, is that small-caps are more sensitive to the news - good or bad. I think that vaccine gains have possibly been baked in by now. There could be another near-term pop due to further stimulus hopes, but it’s likely that small-caps in the near-term could trade sideways before an eventual larger pullback.I hope small-caps decline a minimum of 10% before jumping back in for long-term buying opportunities.SELL and take this week’s profits if you can - but do not fully exit positions .If there is a pullback, this is a STRONG BUY for the long-term recovery.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Revisiting Our October 23 Four Stocks To Own Article – Part I

Revisiting Our October 23 Four Stocks To Own Article – Part I

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 12.01.2021 03:28
Just before the US Elections, we authored an article related to four stocks/sectors that we thought would do well immediately after the November 2, 2020 elections.  The article highlighted how sector rotation in almost any market trend can assist traders in finding solid trading triggers.  We picked four stocks from various sectors for this example:AALAmerican AirlinesTravel/LeisureACBAurora CannabisCannabisGEGeneral ElectricIndustrial/Specialty IndustrySILJJunior Silver Miners ETFPrecious Metals MinersWhen you review my Yahoo! Finance article from October 23 and the November 6 follow up article related to these stock picks, you will quickly see that all of these stocks exhibited similar types of technical patterns.  They were all bottoming in an extended rounded bottom formation and had all started to near a Pennant/Flag Apex in price.  Additionally, many of them, with the exception of SILJ, had set up a very clear RSI technical divergence pattern over the course of setting up the extended bottom in price.My research team and I selected these stocks because of key expectations related to the post-election mentality of investors related to various sectors.  First, the cannabis sector had a number of new US states approve cannabis legislation – providing for an expected increase in business activity for the entire cannabis sector.  Second, no matter who won the election, another round of stimulus was likely to be approved resulting in increased economic opportunity for companies like GE and AAL.  The Travel and Leisure sector still had its risks as a surge in COVID cases could greatly disrupt future travel expectations.  Junior Silver Miners was our “hedge trade”.  If none of these other stocks started to rally, then Silver Miners would likely move 15% to 20%+ higher over time.We thought it would be a good time to check in with our picks to share the importance of using sector trends to your advantage.  Currently, there are dozens of sectors that are either in a solid bullish trend or are shifting into new bullish trends.  Being able to catch these setups early and having the confidence to act on these trends is very important. We highlighted some of these setups in our October 23 article, but they happen all the time in various market sectors.What is important is being able to see the setups, identify the sectors that have the strongest capability for future trends, then determining if you should trade the Sector ETF or some individual stocks within that sector.  Generally, the Sector ETFs provide enough liquidity and opportunity that you don't need to worry about the individual stocks.  Yet, sometimes, applying the same techniques to the strongest sector stocks can add a very valuable component to your trading.Below, we have highlighted the accomplishments of each stock symbol over the past 60+ days.  For this example, we will estimate a $20k allocation for ALL TRADES ($5k each) and use a simple 33% target allocation for Target 1, Target 2, and the Trailing Remainder.  That means, we take 33% of the position off at Targets 1 and 2, then let the remaining 33% trail with a protective stop.SymbolEntry PriceTarget 1 %Target 2 %Last Price %AAL$12.6039.81%NA22.44%ACB$4.68124.35%NA114.72%GE$7.6322.77%NA48.56%SILJ$14.68NANA10.11%Our $20k sample account would look something like this right now...SymbolEntry PriceTarget 1 $Target 2 $Last Price $AAL$12.60$656.87NA$6,408.61ACB$4.68$2,068.28NA$10,802.59GE$7.63$375.71NA$6,995.44SILJ$14.68NANA$5,505.50   Total =>$29,712.14Overall, this represents a +48.5% net account profit in just over 60 days by focusing on sector trends and rotations.  In the future, if any of our higher Target levels are reached, we'll pull another 33% of these trades and lock in these gains while we let the remaining position carry forward with a trailing stop.  The trailing stop should be based on the last completed target level reached.  For example, if Target 1 is reached, then the stop should be placed just below the Entry Price level.  If Target 2 is reached, then the stop should be placed just below the Target 1 level and it should begin to trail higher as new price highs are reached.Usually, we will pick an exit price level based on some type of trend failure or reversal point.  In most cases, this happens when the longer-term (Weekly based) moving averages change direction and price activity displays a clear technical pattern showing the bullish trend has ended.  Most traders are capable of determining their own exit points using technical indicators and other tools as they wish.  Be sure to sign up for my FREE webinar that will teach you how to find and trade my BEST ASSET NOW strategy on your own!When some sector is trending very strongly, we don't want to attempt to second guess the peak level or end of the trend.  We just want to ride that trend for as much profit as we can – unless some other sector sets up a new opportunity where we can better deploy our assets for profits. We like to let the trend work itself to an eventual end and use our Target Levels to lock in gains along the way.American Airlines TradeThe following Weekly chart of American Airlines (AAL) highlights the simple trade we suggested on October 23, 2020.  As you can see, the upward sloping lows in price aligned with the upward sloping RSI trend (in the lower pane).  AAL has reached our first target level (the MAGENTA line) and has recently settled near $15.13.  Our stop level should be just below our entry price level, near or below $12.60 at this time as we wait to see how the bullish trend continues.In Part II of this article, we'll go over the remaining three stock symbols we initially suggested on October 23, 2020 and highlight even more details related to sector trending.Many years ago I was researching Japanese Candlesticks and the teaching of Seiki Shimizu (The Japanese chart of charts: Shimiz) settled well with my thinking.  In his writing, he suggests that more than 60% of the time traders are waiting for new setups/trades.  This is something that many traders need to fully understand in order to balance aggressive trading tendencies with their abilities to create profits and protect assets.If this theory is correct, then trades only need to focus on the 30% to 40% of any 12-month span of time  (three to four months) where the bigger sector trends/trades setup and initiate.  Otherwise, these trends may continue, in some form, over the remainder of the time to generate profits (or not).  This type of thinking suggests that traders only need to focus on the best immediate setups in any market trends/sectors and ignore the “froth” in the markets on a day-to-day basis.  Doing so will allow most traders the freedom to create profits by taking skilled and effective entry triggers while being able to enjoy life, family, and other hobbies.  Trading does not need to be a full-time, 24/7 effort.  The global markets generate big sweeping sector trends sometimes 2 to 4 times a year as capital moves in and out of various trend cycles (short, intermediate, and long term).  All we have to do is find the best sectors to trade, then wait for the trigger/entry setup. Now, imagine what it would be like if you could accomplish something like this every week or month with technology? You can with my BAN Trader Pro strategy and Hotlist.BAN Trader Pro can help you identify and trade the Best Asset Now.  The BAN Hotlist helps us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector.  Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the BAN Trader Pro system trades.  You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to profit from sector rotation with my strategy. You can sign up here for my 100% educational webinar for free.Have a great week!
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Blue (Wave) Beats Gold

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 12.01.2021 14:15
What a week! First gold soared to almost $1,960, but then its price (London P.M. Fix) plunged to $1,863 on January 8, as the chart below shows.This is quite strange (and bearish) behavior, given what happened last week. First, there were violent pro-Trump protests in Washington D.C. The rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol. During these riots, five people died. Given the chaos in the capital, gold, which is a safe-haven asset , should shine.Second, the December Employment Situation Report came out . It turned out that the nonfarm payroll employment declined by 140,000 last month . The numbers fell short of expectations, as the pundits expected that the U.S. economy would add 50,000 jobs. The contraction in the nonfarm payrolls means that the winter wave of the COVID-19 pandemic hit the U.S. labor market rather significantly.Third, despite the rollout of vaccinations (which is rather sluggish), the epidemic in the U.S. is taking its toll . The number of daily new cases of the coronavirus is above 250,000, the record high, as the chart above shows. So, we see the impact of the winter holidays showing up in the data.Rioting will also not help in limiting the spread of the coronavirus . Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths are also rising. The past week saw the first time the U.S. reporting more than 3,900 deaths in a single day, as the chart below shows.Lastly, both Democratic candidates won the runoffs in Georgia , which means that Democrats took control over the Senate. The unexpected blue wave raised expectations for higher taxes and larges fiscal deficits , which should be positive for gold.Implications for GoldThese factors should have been bullish for gold and they should have made the price of the yellow metal rally, but they weren’t and they didn’t. It seems that investors generally welcomed the blue wave and focused on a positive side of that development, or it might have been the case that the gold market was reacting to technical developments, not the fundamental ones. In any case, we can see the replay of the 2016 presidential election when everyone expected that Trump’s victory would be bad for the equity markets and positive for the precious metals market. But back then shares soared while gold plunged. We are currently witnessing something similar. Everyone thought that a blue wave would be the best scenario for gold, but the yellow metal dropped again.Why? Well, maybe it was just a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” phenomenon. Or maybe investors just don’t care about the long-term consequences of larger fiscal stimulus, such as rising public debt . Instead, they assumed that more government spending would accelerate GDP growth . This is why the real interest rates rose (see the chart below), which pushed the gold prices lower.Another issue is that when Trump didn’t support the riots, investors assumed that there will ultimately be a peaceful transition of power and started to sell safe-haven assets such as gold. With Democrats taking control of both the White House and the whole of Congress, investors increased their risk-appetite, which created downward pressure on gold prices.Moreover, the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting published last week indicate that further monetary easing is not likely in the very near future.However, sooner or later the Fed will have to step in. The worsening condition of the U.S. labor market and rising bond yields will prompt the central bank to provide further accommodation. After all, the main task of the central banks is to provide the governments with fiscal room. And at some point, investors will start to worry about the rising fiscal deficits and public debt.So, as long as the real interest rates are rising, gold will be in trouble . But at some point the rates should stabilize, or they could even decline again – especially if inflation emerges – which would help the gold prices.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Stock Pick Update: Jan. 13 – Jan. 19, 2021

Stock Pick Update: Jan. 13 – Jan. 19, 2021

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 13.01.2021 14:23
Header: Which stocks could magnify S&P 500’s gains in case it rallies? Take a look at a part of our Stock Pick Update. We have included two Financials and one Materials stock this time.In the last five trading days (January 6 – January 12) the broad stock market has extended its record-breaking run-up. The S&P 500 index has reached new record high of 3,826.69 on Friday following new stimulus package hopes.The S&P 500 has gained 2.40% between January 6 open and January 12 close. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have gained 1.59%. Stock picks were relatively weaker than the broad stock market’s performance last week. However, our long stock picks have gained 3.35% outperforming the index . Short stock picks have resulted in a loss of 0.17%.There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.Our last week’s portfolio result:Long Picks (January 6 open – January 12 close % change): ECL (+1.65%), CE (+3.80%), KMI (+7.87%), VLO (+1.45%), NVDA (+1.98%)Short Picks (January 6 open – January 12 close % change): PLD (-1.43%), SPG (+1.70%), DUK (-1.13%), PEG (+1.97%), HON (-0.27%)Average long result: +3.35%, average short result: -0.17%Total profit (average): +1.59%Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, January 13 – Tuesday, January 19 period.We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (January 13) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (January 19).We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:buys: 2 x Financials, 2 x Materials, 1 x Consumer Discretionarysells: 2 x Real Estate, 2 x Communication Services, 1 x Consumer StaplesBuy CandidatesAXP American Express Co. - FinancialsStock remains above its medium- and short-term upward trend linesPossible breakout above the previous highThe resistance level is at $124 and support level is at $113SPGI S&P Global Inc. – FinancialsPossible upward reversal from the support level of $212-213The resistance level is at $325 – short-term upside profit target levelSHW Sherwin Williams Co. – MaterialsStock broke above the short-term downward trend line – uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $710 and resistance level is at $740-750Summing up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Financials and Materials sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .Thank you.Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *DisclaimerAll essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
3 Price Drivers in a Globalized World

3 Price Drivers in a Globalized World

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 13.01.2021 16:02
Do you want to know how gold will be doing soon? Or the USDX? You have to look at the German and French economies. You may ask “What? How can they be tied together?” Well, the globalization of markets is one of the core foundations of the modern world. With everything interrelated, nothing in economics can be examined in a vacuum state. That includes the three precious metals price drivers: stocks, yields and currencies.The EUR/USD currency pair is a perfect example of this interconnectivity. Being the most popular and most traded currency pair in the world, the EUR/USD is influenced by many factors, including the price action in the USD Index as well as the strength of the European and American economies at any given time. The same level of interconnectedness can be applied to the other price drivers.Let’s take a fundamental look at stocks, yields and currencies.As you can see in our Correlation Matrix , the 30-trading-day correlation values are strongly negative in the case of all key parts of the precious metals market (gold, silver, senior miners, junior miners) and the USD Index, while they remain generally positive in case of the link with the stock market. Both links are most visible when we take the 250 trading days into account (effectively about 1 year).Figure 1The closer to -1 the number gets, the more negatively correlated given assets are, and the closer to 1 it gets, the stronger the positive correlation. Numbers close to zero imply no correlation.So, what do these markets tell us about future movements in the price of gold?Future HistoryYesterday , I highlighted the record excess that’s building up across U.S. equities. And as we approach the middle of January, investors are giving new meaning to Paul Engemann’s Push It to the Limit .Last week, the S&P 500’s option Gamma (21-day moving average) reached the top 0.37% of all-time readings. And on Monday (Jan. 11), the 10-day MA set a new record.Please see the chart below:Figure 2Keep in mind, Monday’s record was set on an absolute basis (by analyzing the number of outstanding options contracts). However, relative to the S&P 500’s market cap (which biases the reading lower as stocks move higher), it’s the fourth-highest since 2011. More importantly though, the last three times Gamma exposure reached the current level, the S&P 500 fell by 7.9%, 7.3% and 31.0% over the following two months (the vertical red lines above).From a valuation perspective, the derivatives frenzy has also helped push the NASDAQ (4.17x), S&P 500 (2.85x) and Russell 2000’s (1.49x) price-to-sales (P/S) ratios to their highest levels ever.Please see below:Figure 3 – (Source: Bloomberg/ Liz Ann Sonders)And a day after the milestones were set, U.S. small business confidence (the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index) fell to a seven-month low (Jan. 12).Figure 4 - (Source: Bloomberg/Daniel Lacalle)In addition, while economists expected a print of 100.2 (the red box on the left), the reading came in at 95.9 (the red box on the right), more than two points below the index’s historical average. Furthermore, nine out of 10 survey categories indicated that economic conditions are worse than they were in November.Figure 5As another wonder to marvel at, U.S. Treasury yields are also surging (which I’ve mentioned during previous editions). And because corporate profits are still on life support (due to the lack of real economic activity), the spread between the S&P 500’s earnings yield and the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield just hit its lowest level in over two years.Please see below:Figure 6 – (Source: Bloomberg/ Lisa AbramowiczTo explain, the earnings yield is the inverse of the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (calculated as earnings divided by price). The percentage is often compared to the yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury to gauge the relative value of stocks versus bonds. If you look at the middle of the chart, you can see that the spread between the two peaked at more than 6% in 2019 (as companies’ EPS rose and bond yields fell). However, with the opposite occurring today, the spread between the two has fallen below 2.23%.Thus, with bond yields beginning to breathe new life, Jerome Powell’s (Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve) argument that P/E multiples are “not as relevant” in a world of low interest rates is starting to lose its luster.EUR/USD Struggles with RealityDespite bouncing yesterday (as declines rarely happen linearly), the EUR/USD is still treading fundamental water.Over the last few weeks, I’ve been highlighting the increased economic divergence – as a weak U.S. economy is overshadowed only by an even-weaker Eurozone economy (Remember, currencies trade on a relative basis.)And as another data point of validation, yesterday, Bloomberg Economics reduced its first-quarter GDP forecast (for Europe) from a rise of 1.3% to a decline of 4.0%. Furthermore, the team also reduced their full-year GDP growth forecast from 4.8% to 2.9%.Please see below:Figure 7If you analyze the red box, you can see the massive drop in economic activity that’s expected during the first three months of 2021. And even more pessimistic, Peter Vanden Houte, ING’s Chief Economist wrote (on Jan. 7) that he believes “it will take until the summer of 2023 for the Eurozone to regain its pre-crisis activity level.”Also plaguing Europe, please have a look at the sharp decline in the Eurozone household savings rate:Figure 8 – (Source: Refinitiv/ING)To explain, the huge spike in 2020 was a function of government programs to replace lost wages at the onset of the pandemic . However, as the crisis unfolded and the level of government spending became unsustainable, the household savings rate in Germany and France (Europe’s two largest economies) sunk like a stone.Moreover, with Eurozone retail sales plunging by 6.1% in November, and assuming the household savings rate followed suit, you can infer that households are allocating resources to necessities and not discretionary items that boost GDP.The bottom line?The European economy is underperforming the U.S. economy and the deluge of bad data is slowly chipping away at the euro. And as the fundamental damage continues, the EUR/USD should come under pressure and help propel the USD Index higher.As part of the fallout, gold will likely drop below its rising support line and then decline further. Once it bottoms, we’ll have a very attractive entry point to go long in the precious metals and mining stocks.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Mild Rally Continues

Mild Rally Continues

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 13.01.2021 17:25
Have you ever had a stock that's so far in the green that you’d never sell it? Rolling with “House Money?”My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth. Hopefully, you’ll find the below enlightening from my perspective, and I welcome your thoughts and questions.We are now firmly in the second week of 2021. After markets declined to start the week, we saw a muted recovery on Tuesday (Jan. 12).With Democrats gaining full control of both the legislative and executive branches of the government, the prospect of further stimulus has sent stocks soaring to their highest valuations in years. However, the short-term tug of war between good news and bad news will continue.I am especially concerned about overstretched valuations for stocks combined with the return of inflation.The S&P 500 is trading at its highest forward P/E ratio since 2000, and the 10-year treasury is at its highest level since March. Overvalued stocks combined with inflation returning by mid-year is quite concerning for me. I feel that a correction between now and the end of Q1 2020 is likely.According to Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, U.S. stocks and bond markets could possibly “ take more of a breather ” in the near term. National Securities’ chief market strategist Art Hogan also believes that we could see a 5%-8% pullback by the end of this month.Generally, corrections are healthy, good for markets, and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). Because we haven’t seen a correction since March 2020, we could be well overdue.This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.While there will certainly be short-term bumps in the road, I love the outlook in the mid-term and long-term once the growing pains of rolling out vaccines stabilize.The consensus is that 2021 could be a strong year for stocks. According to a CNBC survey which polled more than 100 chief investment officers and portfolio managers, two-thirds of respondents said the Dow Jones will most likely finish 2021 at 35,000, while five percent also said that the index could climb to 40,000.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. I don’t think that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen.House money is fun to play with, but trust me - you won’t feel as well if you let it ride through a full correction without taking profits.Best of luck, and happy trading! The Nasdaq’s RSI is Back Below 70...Where Does it Go from Here?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPI am staying with the theme of using the RSI to judge how to call the Nasdaq. While an overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, with the Nasdaq, I always keep a close eye on this . I initially changed my short-term call on the Nasdaq from a SELL to a HOLD on January 5. I liked the Nasdaq’s declines to start 2021, especially after overheating. The RSI was no longer overbought as well.After changing the call back to a SELL on January 11th, the Nasdaq declined 1.45%.Over the last several weeks, this has been a consistent pattern for the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq pulled back on December 9th after it exceeded an RSI of 70, and briefly pulled back again after passing 70 again three weeks ago. We exceeded a 70 RSI again before the new year, and what happened on the first trading day of 2021? A decline of 1.47%. Tech can rally at any time and witness a plunge at any time. Truly, this sector could move sideways before seeing a correction sooner rather than later.Although there are also tailwinds for tech, they are specific to subsectors. Do what you can to find tech sub-sectors that are innovating, disrupting, and changing our world.I am especially bullish on cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.The Nasdaq is no longer overbought, and its RSI is now hovering around 64. I like this level more as a HOLD, but I still feel that it has overheated in the short-term.I am generally optimistic and bullish for 2021, but I would like a pullback closer to the 50-day moving average before considering buying back in.I also have some concerns with the Democrats winning Senate control, and its potential consequences for tech. It may not happen in 2021, but a Democrat-controlled Congress could raise taxes and further regulate high growth companies.Additionally, love him or hate him, the censorship of President Trump across social media platforms raises questions about what constitutes free speech, and if Big Tech has too much power.Because the RSI is back in HOLD territory, I’m switching my call again from SELL back to HOLD.If the RSI ticks back up above 70, I’m switching back to SELL. The Nasdaq is trading in a clear pattern.Do not let anyone tell you “this time is different” if fears of the dot-com bubble are discussed. History repeats itself, especially in markets. I have many concerns about tech valuations and their astoundingly inflated levels. The recent IPOs of DoorDash (DASH) and AirBnB (ABNB) reflect this.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Higher Yields Hit Gold, But for How Long?

Higher Yields Hit Gold, But for How Long?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 14.01.2021 14:38
The price of gold remains at $1,850, and the key drivers are higher bond yields and a stronger risk appetite.Last week, the yellow metal tanked below $1,900 again, and it hasn’t rebounded since the plunge – instead, the price of gold has stayed at around $1,850.What happened? The main driver of the recent weakness in the precious metals market has been the Democratic victory in the Georgia Senate elections. Thanks to this trifecta, the Democrats have taken control of the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. Consequently, there are lower chances of a political gridlock in Washington and higher chances of smooth cooperation between Congress and the incoming administration of Joe Biden. So, the expectations of additional economic support have risen, thereby strengthening hopes for a quicker economic recovery.Hence, investors went euphoric and increased their risk appetite. They sold safe havens such as gold and disposed of treasuries, pushing the bond yields higher (see the chart below), which in turn hurt the yellow metal .However, the interest rates are still historically low, and the real interest rates remain deeply in negative territory. Although some measure of normalization is standard, the return to pre-pandemic levels is unlikely . The unprecedented increase in worldwide debt implies that we are stuck in a high debt and low interest rate trap. After all, all these debts have been sustainable only because the yields have been low, so I doubt whether we will see an important rebound in them.But the recent episode shows how sensitive gold is to the changes in the real interest rates and that gold investors – as we wrote in the latest Gold Market Overview – shouldn’t forget about the possibility of an increase in the real interest rates, which is a serious downward risk for gold.Implications for GoldIs gold doomed now, given that the Democrats swept both the White House and Congress? Not necessarily. The macroeconomic outlook for 2021 might be worse than for 2020, as the economy should recover and monetary policy should be less dovish – but it’s still positive for gold. After all, historically, gold has shined during the early phases of various economic recoveries. Some analysts even claim that we have not reached the phase of an economic recovery yet – as the liquidity crisis has transformed into a solvency crisis.In other words, it’s always important to distinguish the short-term outlook from the longer-term potential. Gold currently suffers because of the higher yields, but the long-term picture seems to be more positive. The real interest rates, which are more important for the precious metals market, have increased to a lesser extent – and they have stayed well below zero (as the chart above shows).At some point, investors will start factoring in that a large fiscal stimulus projected by the Democrats could increase the public debt to uncomfortable levels, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign debt crisis . They could also begin pricing in the risk of higher inflation and a larger Fed’s balance sheet , as the U.S. central bank and the Treasury wouldn’t welcome much higher interest rates . As a reminder, gold benefited from the easy fiscal policy in the aftermath of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic , so it shouldn’t go out of favor now. Indeed, the huge fiscal deficit combined with the current account deficit will take the so-called twin deficit to a record 25 percent of the GDP , which shouldn’t be without an impact on the price of gold.Instead, gold still has a material upside in the upcoming months, although it could shine less brightly than it did last year , at least until inflation rebounds, or until the Fed expands its accommodative monetary stance. Yes, the U.S. central bank remains dovish, but it’s not eager right now to shoot from its bazooka again. So, the monetary policy will be relatively more hawkish than it was in 2020, which could limit potential gains in the gold market.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Target accuracy versus support and resistance stops

Target accuracy versus support and resistance stops

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 14.01.2021 19:07
Silver is trading sideways. Time to evaluate stops and targets. When the mind is overwhelmed due to data overload or too many variables in a probable outcome, it likes to simplify. In its extreme, it resorts to intuitive responses like fight-flight. What is overwhelm? In most cases, it is an emotional response to an unsolved problem. For trading, this means a data stream evaluation that accumulates to too many questions and results in a desire for simplicity. In the case of exits, most beginning and intermediate traders resort to a support and resistance stop. But that is a very simple way to get taken out of the market. Target accuracy versus support and resistance stops.It is foolish to find a rigid module like a line in the sand (a single price level) in a game with a high degree of variables. Variables that are in constant flux in a dynamic model. Driven by collective psychology, even irrational at times. It would be best if you had real likelihoods based on movement in price, volume and time (at a minimum).If you learn how to drive a car, the dynamics aren’t just pushing the various pedals at the appropriate time. After years of experience, you find the deciding value of surviving this game to be all surrounding factors. For example, slowing down when you see children playing near the street or in heavy rain on the freeway. You create more distance between the car in front of you if its driver is swerving and you suspect a drunk driver. You can feel if something is wrong, but it isn’t an intuitive response due to feeling overwhelmed. It is a subconscious filled with many rules that you have over time hip pocketed that in their sum alarm you to slow down or even stop.Silver, Daily Chart, Stacking Odds:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of January 13th, 2021.A traffic route needs readjustments in the event of a new force affecting traffic. Trading targets are affected by real-time factors, as well. Aspects like new data releases, momentum, volume, and price behavior as a whole. This, in alignment with the time component, weakens a static approach that tries to insist on a simple number of a support resistance price level. To get to a more accurate probability prediction, one needs first to widen a single target number to a target zone (A, B). A zone that is more in alignment with a distribution zone based on prior fractals.Most importantly, look at the way of how prices move towards such zones. An action-reaction principle comes into play if prices moved fast towards a distribution zone (C). In turn, this increases the likelihood of a bounce. On the other side of the spectrum, a slow directional creep of prices much more easily can penetrate a support/resistance price zone.  Silver, Weekly Chart, Exit Management:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of January 13th, 2021.Proper exit management requires a similar complex strategy mixed of experience and a clearly defined approach of targets versus a flawed system of a support and resistance trailing stop.In the weekly chart above, you can see an example of how targets and stop levels change throughout time. Directional support resistance lines update with each candle printing. Standard deviation bands, which work great for the Silver market, are moving along with price behavior. They also work as flexible target and stop levels.Silver, Monthly Chart, Target accuracy versus support and resistance stops:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 14th, 2021.Right now, Silver is trading sideways. It is important to know when to get out with our established positions. We post those in real time in our free Telegram channel.Entries are exits, and exits are entries. In principle, your entry system can be applied for your partial profit-taking as well. It is futile to try to pick tops and bottoms; resorting to an inadequate support resistance approach isn’t a lucrative solution.You want to stack odds in your favor. Also, a core element is a multi exit approach. It provides choices widening one’s possibility to catch larger moves (see our quad exit strategy). Certainly, counter signals at the same time frame are an excellent way to take some profits off the table.When prices trade in regions that it has traded in before, you might consider tools like fractal analysis, linear regression channels (A), and fixed range volume analysis (B). These, amongst others, to identify high probability supply and demand distribution zones.Should prices trade at all-time highs, the main focus needs to be on momentum analysis, counter signals on the same and higher time frames as the entry and signal time frame, and tools like Fibonacci extensions. Volume analysis is a precious component to determine where it is wise to lighten up the load. Novices predict price level. For instance, an analysis where one expects a high probability in time when price changes direction, is more valuable in opposition to a fixed price zone.Target accuracy versus support and resistance stopsExits are the holy grail of trading. In alignment with risk control, they determine the level of profitability. For most, it is here where the rubber meets the road. Above all, exits are the deciding factor if a system is consistent (winning) or an endless string of losers. Here, an advanced system approach that takes many analysis factors into account brings actual value to your trading results.Targets are changing quite substantially through time. The market is in motion, and as such, forces in play need constant reevaluation to be genuinely accurate in their probabilities. Just like driving a car, you can’t just expect to reach your destination each time to work the same way. It would be best if you considered all factors. From the health of the driver to the mechanical condition of the car. From traffic and weather conditions to any unexpected influencing factors of each ride. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Sterling Rebounds As BoE Negative Rate Talk Fades

Sterling Rebounds As BoE Negative Rate Talk Fades

John Benjamin John Benjamin 15.01.2021 09:12
USD steadies on prospects of new stimulus talksEURUSD Rebounds From A 4-Week LowThe euro currency is posting a modest rebound intraday after falling to a four week low earlier on Thursday.The rebound comes as the recent dollar gains take a pause, awaiting more news on the new stimulus talks.Price action in the euro remains currently below the 1.2177 level. Therefore, a continuation to the upside could see this level coming in as resistance.Only a strong breakout above this level could rekindle the upside bias. The Stochastics oscillator is currently signaling a bullish divergence in this aspect.Therefore, the price action near 1.2177 will be critical. To the downside, a continuation below current lows could see the 1.2050 level coming into the picture next.The British pound sterling is posting strong gains, recovering from the declines on Wednesday. The rebound comes following speculation that the Bank of England will not be considering negative interest rates.This has proven to be bullish for the cable which has made a strong rebound. Price action will now be testing Wednesday’s highs of 1.3701.A breakout above this level could post further price gains in the currency pair.To the downside, support is firmly established near 1.3624 which could hold against any pullbacks for the moment. The Stochastics oscillator is also likely to turn higher, adding to the bullish bias.Oil Prices Consolidate Near Highs As Bullish Momentum Slows WTI crude oil prices are trading flat having risen to highs of 53.90 intraday on Wednesday.The declines push the price action back below the rising trend line. This could potentially see the trend line being retested from below.The Stochastics oscillator is nearing the oversold levels and therefore could see a possible move higher once again.However, oil prices will need to break out above the recent highs to continue higher. The next key target will be the 55.00 level.To the downside, if the trendline acts as resistance, then a close below 52.20 is required.Only a strong daily close below this level will open the way for a correction toward the 49.00 handle.Gold Prices Continue To Remain Muted The precious metal is trading subdued, in anticipation of further news on the stimulus proposal from the new Biden administration.Price action is strongly consolidating near the 1850 handle for the moment. This could continue for a while before leading to a strong breakout.The bias also remains mixed at the moment. To the upside, gold prices need to post a strong breakout above the 1850 handle, which will open the way to the 1911 – 1900 resistance level next.To the downside, the 1817.80 level of support once again comes into the picture.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Stocks Decline - Don’t get Caught

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 15.01.2021 17:09
This market reminds me of the days leading up to Christmas Eve 2018. For those who don’t remember, it was a pretty dark day for those trading in financial markets.I was in the office, alone, and felt particularly responsible for my clients that day. You see, since October of that year, markets had been in a tailspin lower.“Fundamentals look good, add some exposure to equities here” I found myself saying, more than once. And just when I thought I would get a break, have a half day in the markets, and take a couple days off - boom. Markets fell 2 to 3 percent on the day .I still remember the feeling, it was like a gut punch. We were unprepared and had added more equity exposure for most of our clients in the prior few weeks. My boss was furious, as I was responsible for allocating hundreds of millions of dollars and we were having our worst quarter ever. I vowed to never be caught unprepared and foolhardy about markets ever again after that quarter.It was a great lesson, and one that allowed me to flourish in 2020. While I did not foresee a global pandemic, back in January of 2020, things were looking eerily similar to 2018. Markets were frothy, and it appeared that no downside was possible. And I cut exposure for my family assets significantly.That allowed me to avoid the worst of the pullback, and in March, with an eye on the long run, I took my family assets and picked up several companies at mouth watering valuations, some we hadn’t seen in years.So far, so good. My old boss would have been pleased - not that it matters…And now? Well. We’re falling into the same song and dance lately, aren’t we. I have some tips below for those interested, and if you want to know how my personal portfolios have performed, slip into my DMs.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra high net worth. Hopefully, you’ll find the below enlightening from my perspective, and I welcome your thoughts and questions.Although stocks closed mildly lower on Thursday (Jan. 14), stocks have overall had a strong start to 2021.Be that as it may, I am still concerned about overheated valuations for stocks and the return of inflation. The S&P 500 is trading at its highest forward P/E ratio since 2000, and the 10-year treasury is at its highest level since March. The Russell 2000 is also up over 37% from its 200-day moving average for the first time in its history.Overvalued stocks combined with inflation returning by mid-year is quite concerning for me. I feel that a correction between now and the end of Q1 2020 is likely.I like how economist Mohammed El-Erian described the market as a “ rational bubble .” But he did caution against four major risks that could cause a downturn.The first two risks, and the least likely are the Fed pulling back on monetary stimulus and the potential for corporate bankruptcies. As Fed Chair Jay Powell said himself Thursday though, (Jan. 14) “be careful not to exit too early,”The last two risks could be riskier.The first is “some sort of market accident” akin to the dot-com bubble popping in 1999. THIS is what concerns me most right now. The IPO market is simply absurd right now. The DoorDash (DASH) and AirBnB (ABNB) IPOs were ridiculous, and other IPOs are looking more and more like a circus. Lender Affirm went public on Wednesday (Jan. 13) and nearly doubled. Shares of Poshmark also surged more than 130% in its debut Thursday (Jan. 14).The other risk is the bond market and its effect on inflation. According to El-Erian, “If we were to see another 20 basis point move in yields, that would be bad news.”Despite my concerns, it is clear to me that investors are loving the potential for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package under President-elect Biden.Although a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news could continue, it seems to me that investors (for now) would just prefer to ride this out for what could be a strong second half of the year. According to CNBC’s Jim Cramer , there appears to be a lack of “people willing to sell”.Be that as it may, jobless claims surged to their highest levels since August, and the pandemic is still out of control. According to Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, U.S. stocks and bond markets could possibly “ take more of a breather ” in the near term.Generally, corrections are healthy, good for markets, and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). Because we haven’t seen a correction since March 2020, we could be well overdue.This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.The consensus is that 2021 could be a strong year for stocks. According to a CNBC survey which polled more than 100 chief investment officers and portfolio managers, two-thirds of respondents said the Dow Jones will most likely finish 2021 at 35,000, while five percent also said that the index could climb to 40,000.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. I don’t think that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen.Hope everyone has a great day. Best of luck, and happy trading! S&P 500’s Valuation is its Highest in Years Figure 1- S&P 500 Large Cap Index $SPXConventional wisdom would tell you that the S&P had overheated and valuations are crazy. The index’s forward P/E ratio is the highest it’s been in two decades.But did you just see JP Morgan ’s (JPM) earnings report?Wow.The big bank crushed both top and bottom line estimates, and saw a net income growth of 42% from a year ago.But look deeper into the earnings call, and there are some things to worry about. JP Morgan reported a net benefit of $1.89 billion in credit reserves and is maintaining a reserve topping $30 billion.Why is this worrying? According to CEO Jamie Dimon, this is because of “significant near term uncertainty” due to the pandemic.Dimon further added that despite vaccine and stimulus-related optimism, JP Morgan is holding onto these reserves in order to “withstand an economic environment far worse than the current base forecast by most economists.”That’s a bit troubling.The S&P 500 has been trading in a streaky matter as of late and reflects the broader tug-of-war between good news and bad. The index seemingly goes on multiple day winning streaks and losing streaks on a weekly basis. After seeing its worst sell-off since October last Monday (Jan. 4), for example, it went on a four-day win streak and broke past 3800.We are now back below 3800. Although I always cheer stocks going up and hitting records, I want buying opportunities. I would like to see a drop to around 3600 or below before making a BUY call for the long-term.For now, my near-term outlook is murky. A short-term correction could inevitably occur by the end of Q1 2021, but for now, I am calling the S&P a HOLD. I would like to see a sharp correction before initiating S&P exposure at a discount. There is clear upside for the second half of 2021, but I would just prefer to maximize the upside from a lower level.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the S&P, the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Our Custom Valuations Index suggests Precious Metals will decline before their next attempt to rally

Our Custom Valuations Index suggests Precious Metals will decline before their next attempt to rally

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.01.2021 22:50
My team prepares Custom Valuations Index charts to understand how capital is being deployed in the global markets alongside US Dollar and Treasury Yields.  The purpose of the Custom Index charts in this article is to provide better insight into and understanding of underlying capital movements in various market conditions.  Recently, we discovered the Custom Index chart shares a keen alignment with Gold (and likely the general precious metals sector).  Let's explore our recent analysis to help readers understand what to expect next in precious metals.Weekly custom valuations index chartThe first thing that caught my attention was the very clear decline in the weekly Custom Valuations Index recently, as can be seen in the chart below.  The second peak on the Custom Valuations Index chart occurred on the week of August 3, 2020.  Gold also peaked at this very same time.  This alignment started an exploratory analysis of the Custom Valuations Index and the potential alignment with the precious metals sector.The peak in the Custom Valuations Index on March 20, 2020 (near the height of the COVID-19 market collapse) presented a very clear upside target which was confirmed with a second peak level in August 2020.  The fact that the Custom Valuations Index reached that peak level again and that peak level also aligned with the peak price in Gold may just be a coincidence.  As we continue to explore this unique alignment, we'll explore more unique characteristics to see if there is a link that is more than mere chance.There have been two very clear Pennant/Flag formations as you can see on the above weekly Custom Valuations Index chart.  The first one is highlighted in BLUE and the second one is highlighted in GREEN.  In both of these instances, the Custom Valuations Index broke lower and Gold followed this trend.  Currently, the Custom Valuations Index has begun to breakdown into a new bearish trend. This suggests that Gold and Silver may also move lower as this Custom Index attempts to find a bottom.Now, let's do a more in-depth analysis of Gold and the Custom Valuations Index.  In the following charts, we've attempted to highlight key price traits that took place in Gold over the past 9+ years and wanted to see if these key price points were reflected in the Custom Valuations Index chart.  The purpose of this is to identify if our assumption that the Custom Valuations Index chart is aligned to Gold (in some way) shows any additional (past price) alignment to validate our thinking.Weekly Gold chartFirst, we'll start with a Weekly Gold chart that highlights key price points, peaks, bottoms, and breakout/breakdown events.  We want to see if the Custom Valuations Index chart also aligned with these key price moves/dates.The following Gold Futures Weekly chart highlights the Appreciation/Depreciation cycles we've identified in earlier research as well.  The GREEN ARCs near the bottom of the chart show you where each cycle starts and stops.  The RED descending line represents a Depreciation Cycle and the GREEN Ascending line represents an Appreciation Cycle.  We are focusing on the September 2011 peak price in Gold and the key price events after the “Failure Peak” that took place to set up the bottom in early 2015, the rally in early 2016, and the breakout rally in June 2019.  Does the Custom Valuations Index chart show these same characteristics and dates?weekly customs valuation chart and gold price historyThis next chart is the Weekly Custom Valuations Index chart with the same highlighted price points/dates.  The first thing we see from this chart is that the “Failure Peak” (October 2012) was a higher price peak on this Custom Index chart than the setup on the Gold chart at the same time.  Thus, the Custom Valuations Chart represented the extended “excess phase” top in Gold as a continued upward trend.  The downtrend after the October 2012 peak on this Custom Valuations Index chart does align with the big breakdown on the Gold chart (above).Be sure to sign up for my FREE webinar that will teach you how to find and trade my BEST ASSET NOW strategy on your own!Additionally, the early 2015 bottoming on the Custom Index chart represented a very early sign that Gold may be looking for a bottom as well.  Gold did move lower throughout the next 11+ months, but so did the Custom Valuations Index price. It makes sense that the Custom Valuations Index may be representing underlying key market dynamics that could be applied to the Gold chart in some way.The Initial Gold Rally in February 2016 was the first real clear trigger on both these charts that coincided with a breakout/rally trend in Gold.  This rally attempt eventually stalled near the end of 2016 and began an extended “momentum base” setup.  Notice how the Custom Valuations Index chart represented this momentum base as and extended sideways Pennant/Flag formation that ended near June 2019.  Also, notice how the stalling in the Custom Valuations Index chart initiated many weeks before Gold actually peaked in 2016.From the February 2019 Breakout, we can clearly see the impressive rally in the Custom Index chart aligned with a big rally in Gold.  What is interesting is the DUAL PEAK in the Custom Index chart that first setup from the lows of the March 2020 COVID-19 bottom.  Could it be that extreme price move somehow represented a key future target for Gold and for the Custom Index chart? There is very little corresponding data to compare to – so we'll have to continue to try to dig deeper for any confirmation of this unique setup. Yet, we can't underestimate the DUAL PEAK setup on the Custom Index chart and the fact that the second peak, August 2020, also aligned perfectly with the current peak price in Gold. Since that August 2020 peak, both Gold and the Custom Index chart have continued to breakdown and trend lower.  It makes sense that Gold will continue to move lower, in alignment with the Custom Index chart, attempting to find a new bottom/momentum base.  We believe the 200 to 240 level on the Custom Valuations Index chart may be a suitable range for this new bottom.One thing we can say with a moderate degree of certainty is that the Custom Valuations Index chart appears to lead the precious metals in many instances and it appears to perfectly align in other instances.  Our research suggests the US and global markets have recently entered a Depreciation Cycle phase which may last many years.  The Custom Valuations Index chart is suggesting that the US, global and precious metals sectors are weakening and attempting to find/set up a new momentum/base. This would suggest that capital will move away from precious metals as well as major market sectors and attempt to find opportunities in undervalued or other hot sectors.  Eventually, once the new momentum base/bottom is firmly established in Gold and the Custom Valuations Index chart, the US and Global major market sectors will likely resume a very strong upside price trend.The key take-away from this research is that sector rotations related to precious metals, major global markets and potential early warning signs of strength or weakness may be attainable by focusing on how the Custom Valuations Index trends in comparison to Gold and the major indexes.  Currently, the Custom Valuations Index is suggesting that precious metals will move lower and try to find a new bottom/base.  This means other market sectors will perform better than precious metals for a period of time.This is also an important reason to focus your attention on finding the best and hottest sectors for new trade opportunities.  When broad components of the market enter bearish trends, like the Custom Valuations Index is suggesting for precious metals, it is best to have a proven system for identifying the best sector trends and trade opportunities.  While one sector may stall, others are rallying.  Long term success is found by focus your trading capital on the strongest opportunities while avoiding weaker trends.2021 is going to be full of these types of trends and setups.  Quite literally, hundreds of these setups and trades will be generated over the next 3 to 6 months using my BAN strategy.  You can learn how to find and trade the hottest sectors right now in my FREE one-hour BAN tutorial. For those who believe in the power of relative strength, cycles and momentum then the BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you. Those who want even more trades use my BAN Hotlist to make sure their trades are going with the momentum to maximize their odds of success.Don't miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months.  2021 and beyond are going to be incredible years for traders.  Staying ahead of these sector trends is going to be key to developing continued success in these markets.  As some sectors fail, others will begin to trend higher.  Learn how BAN Trader Pro can help you spot and trade the best trade setups while mitigating risks at every turn. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.Please take a minute to visit my website to learn about our BAN Trader Pro and our other services and courses that are all designed to give you that edge you need to be a successful trader. Enjoy your weekend!
USD rises to a three-week high despite weak retail sales

USD rises to a three-week high despite weak retail sales

John Benjamin John Benjamin 18.01.2021 08:46
Euro Inches Closer To 1.2050 The euro currency resumes the declines with prices now inching closer to the 1.2050 level of support.The declines come as the euro currency remains in a short term downtrend for the moment. This is evident from the lower highs that have been forming since prices retested the trendline from below on the 6th of January.The current declines to the 1.2050 could see a possible rebound taking place. This will most likely keep the EURUSD within a sideways range of 1.2177 and 1.2050.A break out from this range could possibly set the direction for the next leg.The stochastics oscillator is oversold and therefore coincides with the support level near 1.2050 likely to hold up in the short term.GBPUSD Double Top Pattern In Play The British pound Sterling has formed a double top pattern on the four-hour chart and prices broke down below this level on Friday.As a result, this bearish pattern could possibly see the cable likely to continue to push lower. The previous support level near 1.3506 will likely come in as the downside target.However, considering that the stochastics oscillator is also oversold but a possible rebound is likely to occur. This would see the GBPUSD pushing back to retest the 1.3611 level.Establishing resistance at this level could further validate the downside by his.However, if the cable manages to close above the 1.3611 level, then it would invalidate the double top pattern and as a result, we could possibly see either a consolidation or a possible move higher.Oil Prices Give Back Gains Crude oil prices were down close to 3% on Friday. This comes even as prices attempted to make a rebound earlier in the week on Thursday.However, this rebound led to a lower high emerging. Following this, prices gave back the gains on Friday and lost the support from the trend line as well.For the moment, the bias still remains to the upside. We need to wait for evidence to see a lower high forming in order to confirm the downside.For the moment, the lower target remains the support area near 49.00.In the short term, any rebound in prices could see the previous swing low near 52.30 playing a key role. If there is any rebound, then prices are likely to stall near this level.A strong close above 52.30 could potentially see another short term game in prices.Alternately, if we see a reversal near 52.30 or a continuation from the current levels, then we could expect the retracement towards 49.00.Gold Prices Hold Steady In A Sideways Range The precious metal was also trading weaker on Friday with prices down over 1%.However, price action remains subdued for the moment with the sideways range between 1850 and 1818 levels holding up for the moment.The lack of further bearish momentum is likely to see this possible consolidation resulting in either a strong retracement back to the upside. Alternatively, failure of support near 1818 could accelerate the decline.The stochastics oscillator currently remains well above the oversold levels thus indicating further room to the downside.However, the support level near 1818 is likely to hold up for the moment. As a result, gold prices are likely to continue trading in a sideways range for a while.To the upside, only a strong breakout above the 1850 level is likely to accelerate any gains that might come its way. The next key target will be the 1911.50 level of resistance.
Bitcoin, no exits necessary

Bitcoin, no exits necessary

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 18.01.2021 12:04
Well, maybe it isn’t quite that simple. If you want to have both, an income-producing approach and wealth preservation long-term investing strategy, you still need to take partial profits at times; you still need to use a tool like our quad exit. Generally speaking, though, you do not need to worry about exits regarding Bitcoin trading.While bitcoin is consistently exploring new all-time highs since 11/30/2020, many wonder how high will this go. It is even harder to predict good exit points when price enters the uncharted territory of new all-time highs. Wall Street gurus speak of sell points with various six, seven, and eight-figure numbers of all sorts. But isn’t it evident that if Bitcoin reaches these higher echelons, you do not want to sell it? Sell it for what? What would be more interesting to own than Bitcoin if it trades at US$700,000 or US$7,000,000 or US$7,000,000,000? All you want is just to own Bitcoin. It will be the currency that will purchase you whatever you need. Being limited at twenty-one million, Bitcoin is a scarce “digital commodity”.BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Roadmap overview:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of January 18th, 2021The above chart shows in blue to the right in histogram style average volume traded on Bitcoin. We marked in green horizontal lines peak volume regions where bulls and bears had extended battles of buys and sells. Supply and distribution zones. The highest volume peak, called POC (point of control), is marked in a yellow horizontal line. Bitcoin prices will likely see much higher price levels than recent all-time highs, but we find a roadmap like this essential. A market crash in the stock market could temporarily drag Bitcoin along, but Bitcoin will recover with much vigor and quick speed. In such a scenario, these supply zones will provide an opportunity for reload entries to the runners which we are already holding as a core position. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Time cycle and Fibonacci projections:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of January 18th, 2021Bitcoin is consolidating right now, and we see a bottom to be established soon. Afterwards Bitcoin might be heading towards the recent highs, followed by a breakthrough again. The weekly chart above tries to keep the bigger picture in check. We stacked exit odds projections by using a time cycle instrument and a Fibonacci extension tool. We shared the target numbers of where we find partial profit-taking sensible over the next six years marked in red to the chart’s right. But let the runners (the last 25% of each initial position) run! No exits are necessary for those.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Real-time partial profit prediction zones:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of January 18th, 2021Zooming now into a smaller time frame, we are trying to illustrate on this daily chart how these volume measurement tools (available in almost all charting software packages) can also help to predict partial profit-taking zones. To the right, we plotted volume again, to the left mirrored green box zones show sensible profit taking zones should bitcoin prices retrace. After smart entry places those zones are needed to take some profit off the table.But that isn’t all. With a volume histogram open like this, you can see distribution zones establishing in real-time. Establish meaningfulness by comparing the volume peak levels with prior peaks. This volume analysis approach is advantageous when bitcoin should be extending in new all-time high territory again.Bitcoin, no exits necessaryAt Midas Touch, we advise our clients to hold a portion of their wealth in Bitcoin. We use the quad exit strategy as a risk reduction tool for entries. We do recommend taking partial profits if income-producing profit-taking fits your investment style. But in general, we are holding on to what we call runners, the last 25 % of a trading position, and while we have in any other commodity exit targets for those as well when it comes to Bitcoin, we just let them run add infinity.In other words, while one was thinking in the last hundred years of one’s wealth and profits measured in fiat currencies, it might be sensible to now instead think of one’s net worth in Bitcoin! Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Stocks Decline, More May be Coming

Stocks Decline, More May be Coming

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 18.01.2021 22:15
We’ve reached a very critical juncture in the markets. Last week, I mentioned how this reminded me of the Q4 2018 pullback ( read my story here ), and still maintain that there is way too much complacency in this market. Stock markets are risky for a reason, something many Robinhood traders are sure to find out this year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth. Hopefully, you’ll find the below enlightening from my perspective, and I welcome your thoughts and questions.Stocks closed the week with their first weekly declines in nearly a month.The pullbacks weren't anything astronomical, but it could potentially be the start of the Q1 declines that I have been predicting.For one, valuations are insane, and the tech IPO market is looking like clown school. The S&P 500 is trading near its highest forward P/E ratio since 2000, while the Russell 2000 has never traded this high above its 200-day moving average.Signs are starting to point towards the return of inflation by mid-year as well. As the 10-year yield ticked up to its highest level since March, economist Mohammed El-Erian said “if we were to see another 20 basis point move in yields, that would be bad news.”Expectations haven’t been this high for inflation in years either. According to Edward Jones , the 10-year breakeven rate hit its highest level since 2018 last week due to rising commodity prices, a weaker dollar, and broad stimulus policy. The 10-year breakeven rate is a market-based measure of inflation expectations.What’s also concerning is that investors didn’t seem to bat an eye at Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package !What does this tell me?That maybe this was anticipated and priced in already. According to Jim Cramer on his Mad Money show on CNBC, “When an event occurs and the market gets exactly what it wants, but nothing more, it’s treated as a reason to sell, not to buy.”Although this week's decline was moderate, I still feel that a correction between now and the end of Q1 2020 is likely amidst a tug of war between good news and bad news.Generally, corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). The last time we saw one was in March 2020, so we could be well overdue.Corrections are healthy market behavior and could be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.I hope everyone has a great day. Best of luck, and happy trading! Time to Wager - Is the Dow Over/Under 31,000 Before the End of January?Figure 1- Dow Jones Industrial Average $INDUIs it possible to choose "push" on this gamble?I have too many short-term questions and concerns about the Dow Jones to unequivocally say it's overheated like the Russell or tech IPOs, or if it's at the right buying level.Although the Dow's RSI is comparable to the Nasdaq's on the surface, it has also not exceeded overbought levels as much.I do like the Dow's decline this week. But I'd like to see a more profound dip before buying back in.If someone wanted to make an over/under bet with me on the Dow's 31,000 level by the end of January, the truth is I'd probably choose "push." You'd have better luck betting on the AFC Championship game this year (but only if Mahomes plays).I don't like how COVID-19 is trending (who does?), I am disappointed in the vaccine roll-out (although it's improving), and I am concerned about short-term economic and political headwinds. But I think it's more likely than not that the Dow hovers around 31,000 by month's end rather than make any significant move upwards or downwards. It is very hard right now to make a conviction call on this index.If and when there is a drop in the index, it probably won't be anything like we saw back in March 2020.While a 35,000 call to close out 2021 is a bit aggressive, the second half of 2021 could show robust gains for the index once vaccines are available to the general public.With so much uncertainty, the call on the Dow stays a HOLD. I am closely monitoring the RSI if it exceeds 70.For an ETF that looks to directly correlate with the Dow's performance, the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is a strong option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold Price Drops Amid Stimulus and Poor Data

Gold Price Drops Amid Stimulus and Poor Data

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 19.01.2021 11:27
The price of gold has declined further amid incoming U.S. President Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus and poor economic data, which is a bearish sign.The weakness in the gold market continued last week. As the chart below shows, the London P.M. Fix declined below $1,840 last Friday (the price of the yellow metal later declined even further, i.e., below $1,830).The downward trend is a bit disturbing given the poor economic data reported last week. First, the jobless claims increased from 784,000 on January 2 to 965,000 on January 9, 2021 , as one can see in the chart below. This increase surpassed market expectations and indicates that there is a long way ahead for a full recovery in the U.S. labor market.Second, U.S. retail sales declined 0.7 percent in December from the previous month . Importantly, the decrease was larger than the expected 0.1 percent drop. Third, the Empire State Index increased 3.5 percent in January. Although the index grew, it rose at a slower pace than in December and below expectations.All these economic reports show that the U.S. economy has slowed down, and that we could see more stimulus coming in an effort to stimulate economic growth. Indeed, on Thursday, Jerome Powell excluded any tapering of the quantitative easing in the near future , saying that he “expect[s] that the current pace of purchases will remain appropriate for quite some time”. The recent weak economic data that show slack remaining in the labor market can only reassure the Fed that it should continue providing accommodation and not think about raising interest rates .Moreover, on Thursday (Jan. 14), Biden unveiled a massive stimulus plan worth $1.9 trillion to support the economy amid the COVID-19 epidemic . The aid package, that would be on top of the $900 billion stimulus adopted by Congress in December, includes $1 trillion in direct checks to Americans, about $440 billion for small businesses particularly strongly hit by the epidemic, and about $415 billion to fight the coronavirus and speed up the distribution of vaccinations.The continuation of the dovish monetary policy and expansion of the easy fiscal policy should theoretically send the price of gold higher.Implications for GoldThey should, but gold has gone south instead. Therefore, the drop in the price of gold amid poor economic data, Powell’s remarks, and Biden’s announcement is a bearish signal .However, it might be also the case that we will see a replay of March, when the first wave of the pandemic initially hit the precious metals market. Investors were stocking up cash then, selling both equities and gold. We observed a similar pattern on Friday, so we could see a reversal after some time.Moreover, Biden’s fiscal aid, if adopted, would increase U.S. government spending, budget deficit and public debt even further. As a reminder, the federal government spent a record $6.5 trillion in fiscal 2020, while the national debt has already risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s presidency. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s projection from early January, the U.S. fiscal deficit would total $2.3 trillion for fiscal 2021. However, with Biden’s new stimulus, it would be much larger and could even surpass the record deficit of $3.1 trillion for the last fiscal year.So, the ballooning fiscal deficits and debts, together with a recession caused by the pandemic and the Great Lockdown , should be sufficient reasons to be cautious and hold part of one’s investment portfolio in safe-haven assets such as gold . Yet many investors are still turning a blind eye to the negative effects of a fiscal stimulus. But just because they cover their eyes, the elephant will not disappear from the room. Indeed, the gold elephant – and gold bull , his cousin – will not disappear, although they may hide for a while .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
GBPUSD Back Above 1.3611, The Double Top Low

GBPUSD Back Above 1.3611, The Double Top Low

John Benjamin John Benjamin 20.01.2021 08:35
USD turns weaker after rising to a one-month highEURUSD Retraces To the 1.2144 Price Level The euro currency is posting a strong retracement following the decline close to the 1.2050 level of technical support.The current rebound has pushed price action to test a minor support level near 1.2144. With the stochastics oscillator currently showing a hidden bearish divergence, price action will either have to break out above 1.2177 resistance or it is likely that we could see a continuation to the downside.This could mean that the technical support near 1.2050 will once again come under pressure. If prices break below this level, then the EURUSD could be looking towards posting their correction down to 1.1900 level.To the upside, price action will need to post or strong gain about 1.2177 in order to keep the upside bias intact.The British pound sterling continues its strong reversal price action as prices our trading currently above the 1.3611 level.This was the low from the double top pattern that had formed previously. If we see a strong close above 1.3611, then it would potentially keep the GBPUSD within a sideways range.This would mean that the cable will be trading back within the 1.3701 and 1.3611 levels.For the moment, however, the stochastics oscillator still remains somewhat weak as far as the bullish bias is concerned.As a result, a reversal near 1.3611 could potentially reiterate the downside buyers. This would then open the way for the cable to test the 1.3506 level of support.WTI Crude Oil Rebounds. But Can It Post Further Gains? WTI crude oil prices are posting a strong recovery with price action attempting to retest the previously formed highs.However, the reversal looks to be a bit fragile at the moment. As a result, if prices fail to break out above the trend line once again and above the previous highs near 53.80, then we could expect to see some downside correction taking place.For the moment, the oil prices remain somewhat mixed in their bias.Price action on the daily chart shows a bullish reversal following the Doji pattern which comes after the strong declines from Monday.However, from here on, oil prices will need to close above the previous highs in order to continue to post further gains.Gold Stays Muted Despite A Weaker USDThe precious metal is trading subdued, unmoved by the weaker US dollar. As a result, prices remain rangebound within the 1850 and 1818 levels for the moment.The stochastics oscillator also remains rather flat suggesting the sideways movement is likely to continue on for a bit further.Only a strong breakout within this range could result in a potential direction being established in the near term.The bias also remains mixed at this moment. On the daily chart, following the strong rejection below 1817.79, prices have managed to close bullish.However, the resistance level near 1850 will prove to be critical at this point.The stochastics on the daily chart timeframe remains near the oversold level, therefore giving support to the upside buyers if there is a breakout above 1850.
Stock Pick Update: Jan. 20 – Jan. 26, 2021

Stock Pick Update: Jan. 20 – Jan. 26, 2021

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 20.01.2021 14:13
Header: Which stocks could magnify S&P 500’s gains in case it rallies? Take a look at a part of our Stock Pick Update. We have included two Energy and one Financials stock this time.In the last five trading days (January 13 – January 19) the broad stock market has traded sideways. The S&P 500 index reached new record high of 3,826.69 on January 8 following new stimulus package hopes. Since then, it has been fluctuating. Last Friday the index got back to short-term support level of 3,750 before bouncing back higher again.The S&P 500 has lost 0.09% between January 13 open and January 19 close. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have lost 0.32%. Stock picks were relatively slightly weaker than the broad stock market’s performance last week. Our long stock picks have lost 0.62% and short stock picks have resulted in a loss of 0.02%.There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.Our last week’s portfolio result:Long Picks (January 13 open – January 19 close % change): AXP (+4.24%), SPGI (-0.46%), SHW (-2.11%), ECL (-2.95%), HD (-1.84%)Short Picks (January 13 open – January 19 close % change): PLD (+3.19%), WY (+0.12%), DIS (-1.23%), TTWO (+0.14%), EL (-2.11%)Average long result: -0.62%, average short result: -0.02%Total profit (average): -0.32%Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, January 20 – Tuesday, January 26 period.We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (January 20) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (January 26).We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:buys: 2 x Energy, 2 x Financials, 1 x Materialssells: 2 x Consumer Staples, 2 x Real Estate, 1 x Communication ServicesBuy CandidatesCOP ConocoPhillips - EnergyStock remains above the previous local highs - uptrend continuation playThe resistance level is at $48 and support level is at $45PXD Pioneer Natural Resources Co. – EnergyPossible uptrend continuation following short-term correctionThe resistance level is at $137.50 – short-term upside profit target levelC Citigroup, Inc. – FinancialsStock trades within a short-term consolidation following the recent run-up – uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $62 and resistance level is at $68Summing up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Energy and Financials sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .Thank you.Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *DisclaimerAll essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

The Tug of War Continues

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 20.01.2021 15:39
This market continues trudging forward and weighing good news with bad. After stocks closed last week with their first weekly declines in nearly a month, stocks staged a mild recovery on Tuesday (Jan. 19th) led by tech, big banks, and small-caps.Today's gains were primarily thanks to renewed stimulus hopes, faster vaccine distributions, and strong bank earnings. However, this is far from an “all clear.”It still reminds me of the Q4 2018 pullback ( read my story here ). I remain steadfast that there is way too much complacency in today’s market- despite long-term tailwinds. In the short-term, we are truly walking on ice.For one, valuations are absurd. Tech IPOs seem more like Barnum and Bailey than a capital market, the S&P 500 is trading near its highest forward P/E ratio since 2000, and the Russell 2000 has never traded this high above its 200-day moving average.Signs are starting to point towards the return of inflation by mid-year as well. Despite declining Tuesday (Jan. 19), the 10-year yield remains around its highest level since March. Economist Mohammed El-Erian believes that “if we were to see another 20 basis point move in yields, that would be bad news.”Edward Jones also claims that the 10-year breakeven rate, a market-based measure of inflation expectations, is at its highest level since 2018 thanks to rising commodity prices, a weaker dollar, and broad stimulus policy.There are also some signs that the market is already pricing in Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package .On the one hand, according to Jim Cramer , “when an event occurs and the market gets exactly what it wants, but nothing more, it’s treated as a reason to sell, not to buy.” What happened in the market last week reflects this.On the other hand, some of the economic benefits may not have been priced in yet. For example, JP Morgan believes that this stimulus plan could cut unemployment to less than 5% by year’s end.But remember- the stock market is not the economy.I remain firm that a correction between now and the end of Q1 2020 could happen thanks to this neverending pay-per-view bout between good news and bad news.We may trade sideways this quarter- that would not shock me in the least. But I think we are long overdue for a correction since we haven’t seen one since last March.Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.In a report released Tuesday (Jan. 19), Goldman Sachs shared the same sentiments.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth. Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening, and I welcome your thoughts and questions.Have a great shortened trading week! Best of luck. The Nasdaq’s RSI Indicates Hold- Deeper Pullback Coming?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPIf utility stocks are Subarus, tech stocks are Ferraris.These stocks get the most glory, show the most growth potential, and are innovators and disruptors.Pay close attention, especially to cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech in 2021.I am sticking with the theme of using the RSI to judge how to call the Nasdaq. An overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, but with the Nasdaq, I always keep a close eye on this . Over the last several weeks, the Nasdaq’s RSI has indicated a consistent pattern.The Nasdaq pulled back on December 9 after exceeding an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back again after passing 70 again four weeks ago. We also exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year, and what happened on the first trading day of 2021? A decline of 1.47%.The last time I changed my Nasdaq call from a HOLD to a SELL on January 11 after the RSI exceeded 70, the Nasdaq declined again by 1.45%.Despite ticking back up on Tuesday (Jan. 19), the Nasdaq is still no longer technically overbought. But the tech IPO market screams dot-com bubble to me.Last week, Lender Affirm nearly doubled in its public debut, while Poshmark surged by over 130% during its world premiere.I have no other words to describe it besides a circus.I still love tech and am generally bullish for 2021. But I need to see the Nasdaq have a legitimate cooldown period and move closer to its 50-day moving average before considering it a BUY.I also have some worries about how full Democrat control could affect tech stocks thanks to higher taxes and stricter regulations. A Blue Wave is better for small-caps than tech.For now, because the RSI is still a HOLD, I’m keeping my HOLD call.If the RSI ticks back up above 70, I’m switching back to SELL. The Nasdaq is trading in a precise pattern.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Here’s Why Gold Recently Moved Up

Here’s Why Gold Recently Moved Up

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 20.01.2021 15:52
Gold moved higher as the USD Index moved lower in today’s pre-market trading. Before providing you with my thoughts on why that happened and what the implications are, let’s see exactly what transpired.Figure 1 - USD IndexIn yesterday’s (Jan. 19) analysis , I commented on the above USD Index chart in the following way:The USD Index is after a major breakout above the declining resistance lines and this breakout was confirmed. Consequently, the USD Index is likely to rally, but is it likely to rally shortly? The answer to this question is being clarified at the moment of writing these words, because the USD Index moved back to its rising short-term support line that’s based on the 2021 bottoms.If the USD Index breaks below it, traders will view the 2021 rally as a zigzag corrective pattern and will probably sell the U.S. currency, causing it to decline, perhaps to the mid-January low or even triggering a re-test of the 2021 low.If the USD Index performs well at this time and rallies back up after touching the support line, and then moves to new yearly highs, it will be then that traders realize that it was definitely not just a zigzag correction, but actually the major bottom. In the previous scenario, they would also realize that, but later, after an additional short-term decline.The weak performance of mining stocks that we saw last week, and relatively strong performance of silver (up by 1.24%) compared to gold (up by 0.34%) in today’s pre-market trading suggest that PMs are very ready to slide right now. This – as markets are interconnected – might make the strength in the USD Index more likely than not. In this case, the second above-mentioned scenario would be realized, and the price moves that I’ve been describing for some time now, would gain momentum quickly.In either case, it seems that the outlook for the precious metals market remains bearish for the short and medium-term. It is only the immediate and very short term that have any notable differences. Therefore, it seems to make sense to keep the short positions in the mining stocks intact.The USD Index moved lower, and at the moment of writing these words, its trading slightly below the rising support line. Is the more bearish (on a temporary basis) forecast for the USDX and more bullish forecast for gold being realized?Let’s take a look at gold.Figure 2 - COMEX Gold FuturesGold is rallying today, but overall, it remains in a back-and-forth consolidation pattern, which continues to be similar to what we saw in November after a very similar (yet smaller) sharp decline.Gold moved slightly above its September low in intraday terms, but not in terms of the closing prices.Figure 3 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Miners were barely affected yesterday. They moved slightly higher, but it seems to have been just a pause, similar to what we saw in mid-November – nothing more than that.Ok, so that’s what happened. Before stating that the USD’s breakdown and gold’s strength today are game changers for the very short term, let’s think about the possible explanation for these price moves. Is anything special happening today that makes today’s session at least a bit different than other sessions? Something that could be affecting the USD Index and gold?Of course, there is something like that! It’s the U.S. President’s inauguration day!In any case, such a day could affect the temporary market movement, but this year it’s particularly the case, because of the recent Washington D.C. riot and popular conviction that “something might happen” that would prevent the inauguration and effectively allow Donald Trump to remain the U.S. President.As I explained previously, I think that the probability for seeing the above is extremely low, but at this time, the markets and investors might be worried that this really is something that’s at least somewhat possible. If so, then the USD Index should be moving temporarily lower and gold – being a safe-haven asset – is likely to be moving higher. Of course, only temporarily, because it will soon become clear that the inauguration takes place without any major obstacles. There might be some local protests etc., but nothing that would change the situation in any meaningful manner. Consequently, this is most likely the day when the uncertainties and tension regarding the transfer of power in the U.S. start to decrease. At the same time, it’s likely that they will peak right before decreasing. Therefore, what we’re seeing in the USD Index and gold right now is perfectly understandable and natural. And likely temporary.This means that the breakdown in the USD Index could be invalidated soon – perhaps even tomorrow (or later today) and the opposite would be likely in the case of gold and silver’s strength. They might fade away quite quickly. Either way, the outlook remains bearish in my view.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Dollar muted as Joe Biden sworn in as president

Dollar muted as Joe Biden sworn in as president

John Benjamin John Benjamin 21.01.2021 08:10
EURUSD Reverses Near 1.2144, Will It Push Lower? The euro currency is trading with some modest losses on Wednesday. The declines come after price action made a rebound just a few pips above the 1.2050 technical support.This rebound pushed prices to test their technical resistance level near 1.2144. Following this small rally, price action reversed gains.At the moment, prices remain stuck within the 1.2144 resistance and 1.2050 support. With the stochastics oscillator moving out from the overbought levels, we expect to see a retest back to the 1.2050 level, a bit more firmly.If the euro currency loses the support near 1.2050, then we expect a gradual decline towards the 1.1900 level next.To the upside, a close above the 1.2177 – 1.2144 level, will open the way to further gains.GBPUSD Briefly Rises Above 1.3700 But Fails To Hold The British pound sterling continued its bullish rally with prices briefly rising above the 1.3700 handle once again.However, the intraday gains were quickly scaled back as prices pulled back later in the day. As a result, the GBPUSD is currently trading within the sideways range of 1.3700 and 1.3611.The stochastics oscillator is currently overbought but is likely to head lower. This would mean that if the cable loses the support near 1.3611, then we expect to see price action falling back to the previous lows.This would open up the way towards 1.3506 level of technical support.In the medium-term outlook, we expect the GBPUSD to maintain a sideways range between 1.3700 and 1.3500.WTI Crude Oil Gains Lose Steam Near 53.77 WTI crude oil prices continue to hold a bullish front with price once again testing the 13th January and 15th January highs near 53.77.However, the strong pace of gains is showing signs of weakening. Price action has failed to make any significant highs beyond this level.The failure to close above 53.77 could potentially open the way for a move back lower. This would mean that the previous swing low formed near 51.85 is likely to be the short term support for the moment.If price action breaks down below this level of support, then we could expect to see further continuation lower.For the moment, given the bullish momentum in oil markets, we might see another attempt being made to the upside.In the event that crude oil prices close above 53.77, then it would open the way to further gains.Gold Prices Rise To An Eight-Day High The precious metal has managed to rise to an 8-day high following a close above the 1850 handle on an intraday basis.The Stochastics oscillator currently looks somewhat bullish with the possibility that the overbought conditions may persist.If price closes above 1850 on a daily basis, then we expect to see further gains. The next key technical resistance for gold is the 1911.50 level.In the near term, gold prices will need to establish support once again near the 1850 handle. Given that there has been a strong consolidation taking place near this technical support, there is a good chance that price action might continue to push higher.To the downside, a close below the 1850 handle will open up to the 1817.80 level of technical support.
Will Biden Inaugurate Gold’s Rally?

Will Biden Inaugurate Gold’s Rally?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.01.2021 16:12
The price of gold increased on Inauguration Day, arousing investors’ hopes for a new bullish phase.Ladies and gentlemen, it’s official now – Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have been sworn in as the President and Vice-President of the United States, respectively. What does this imply for America?Well, before we move on to Biden, let’s say goodbye to Trump. You can love him or hate him, but there is no denying that the 45th presidency was excellent for the price of gold . As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal rose more than 50 percent since January 2017 (although gold initially declined after the election results).But Trump is now out of the White House, while Biden is in. What are the economic implications of this change? Well, I used to claim that people generally overestimate the impact that politics and the power of Presidents have over economic developments. However, this time may be different for two reasons.First, Biden is going to quickly reverse many of Trump’s decisions . For instance, he is going to reverse the construction of the border wall, the travel ban targeting mainly Muslim countries, and the withdrawal from the Paris climate accord as well as from the World Health Organization. Biden will also impose a mask mandate on federal property, reversing Trump’s ambiguous stance on the epidemic in the U.S.Second, the 46th presidency could be remembered in the future as having been fiscally lavish – and Biden seems to be determined to overshadow Trump in that matter. He has already proposed to spend $1.9 trillion to stimulate the economy – on top of previous aid packages worth more than $3 trillion. Importantly, Biden calls his mammoth plan just “the first step” and he is going to soon announce a plan for spending on infrastructure and clean energy which could be worth more than $2 trillion. Additionally, Janet Yellen , likely the next U.S. Treasury Secretary, has recently confirmed the stance of the new administration, saying that the government should act “big” to jump-start the economy, as “the benefits will far outweigh the costs” of being bold.Implications for GoldWhat does Biden’s presidency imply for the gold market? Well, we have already covered this theme in the two latest editions of the Gold Market Overview (and we will continue this topic in the next issue), but let us repeat that, from the fundamental point of view, Biden’s presidency looks promising for the price of gold . Although larger government expenditures can boost the GDP in the short run (the long-term economic impact could actually be negative), they will also expand the fiscal deficits and the federal debt .Higher debts not only makes the economy more fragile and prone to debt crises , but they also make the normalization of monetary policy more difficult. The truth is that the U.S. simply cannot afford higher interest rates. You see, the higher the debts, the lower the interest rates must be to handle the debt servicing costs. Welcome to the debt trap . So, the Fed will have to maintain the federal funds rate at practically a zero level for a long time. The lower the real interest rates , the better it is for gold.Oh, and did I mention inflation already? With the massive amount of stimulus injected into the U.S. economy, there is an overriding risk of overheating and increase in inflation, which would be positive for the gold prices.So, as long as there is a strong risk appetite, hope for better politics (“this time will be different and this president will be different than everyone else and everything will change for the better”) and faster economic growth, gold may struggle.However, when the honeymoon ends and investors acknowledge risks related to the higher fiscal stimulus, or when some economic crisis arrives and the risk appetite vanishes, gold will shine. Indeed, gold investors didn’t appear to be afraid of President Biden, as the price of gold increased on Inauguration Day.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
What's next for Bitcoin – $56k or $16k?

What's next for Bitcoin – $56k or $16k?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 21.01.2021 21:21
Bitcoin traders and enthusiasts are riding the wave after the incredible rally from $9,000 to $42,000 throughout Q4:2020.  It certainly was an incredible run – more than quadrupling in value in less than three months. Now we find ourselves in an early 2021 corrective phase which will end in either another Breakout/Rally attempt or an Excess Phase (Blow-off) Top.  This article highlights both potential outcomes because at this stage it is difficult to determine a single high-probability outcome.Before I continue, I urge readers to review our How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase article from November 27, 2020. You can re-read it here. This is an excellent primer for the content of this current research article.What A Bitcoin Breakout Would Look LikeLet's take a look at what a Breakout/Rally technical setup in Bitcoin would look like in the near future.  Looking at the chart below, price must hold above critical support near $27,800 as any new lower low would constitute a continuation of the Bearish downtrend.  Therefore, any renewed rally attempt would likely initiate from levels near $28k (or just below this level). Using a Fibonacci Price Extension, we can see the $46,280 (0.618) and the $56,190 (1.0) Fibonacci Extension levels are key potential upside price targets if a breakout/rally resumes.  We are measuring the most recent bottom, in late November, to the current high price level, then aligning the Fibonacci price extension bottom to the current price lows (near $30,260).  This allows us to see future potential price target levels if this rally/uptrend continues.Again, it is critical that the support level near $27,800 holds and price lows do not breach this level.  Any breach of this support level would constitute a “new lower low” in Fibonacci Price Theory – which suggests a downtrend is continuing.What A Bitcoin Breakdown Would Look LikeThe opposite aspect of this recent peak is that it may be setting up as an Excess Phase (blow-off) Top, as we can see the #1 (extreme rally) and #2 (sideways flag) setup in price recently.  The completed Excess Phase pattern consists of five total processes:The extreme upside price rallyThe TOP, followed by a moderate downside price trend that sets up the FLAGThe breakdown of the FLAG trend, which then targets a broader support levelThe breakdown of that support level, which then targets the ultimate bottom/momentum base levelOnce the ultimate bottom/base is established, then a new momentum/bottom begins and trend usually attempts another rally attempt.Be sure to sign up for my webinar that will teach you how to find and trade my BEST ASSET NOW strategy on your own FREE RIGTH NOW!Obviously, when you look at the Bitcoin to USD chart (below), it is fairly easy to identify the #1 and #2 setup of the Excess Phase Top.  The next question is will price breakdown and attempt to move below the $27,800 recent low support level or will it hold above this level, prompting another rally attempt.  If price breaks below the $27,800 support level (near recent lows on January 11, 2021), then we need to be very cautious of the broader Excess Phase Top process continuing and a continued breakdown resulting in lower price trends.  If the $27,800 support level holds, as we suggested in the Breakout/Rally example above, then there is a strong chance that $42k to $56k could be the next upside targets.I understand that readers and traders want to have more clarity on the direction Bitcoin will go, but ultimately, we need price to complete the next phase of this process. It all hinges on the current $27,800 support level right now.  As long as that support level holds, then there is a very strong possibility that another upside price rally will begin at some point in the future.  If it is broken and the Flag Breakdown continues, then it would appear the Excess Phase Top has moved into Phase #3 and will likely continue to unfold.Why wait for Bitcoin to begin a new trend – Stock sectors are movingEven though we will wait and see on Bitcoin, we see a wide variety of other sectors to play instead of holding out for the right Bitcoin trade. We have seen some explosive trading opportunities in sectoral ETFs despite the pullback in Bitcoin and other assets. One of our Best Asset Now Hotlist ETFs has grown by 23.55% since we identified its trigger a short 9 days. Some of our subscribers that traded options on that BAN Hotlist trigger did really, really well!If you love Cryptos or not, don't miss out on the opportunities that are setting up in the broader, global market and stock sector ETFs with our BAN strategy. If you want to improve your own trading strategy and win-rate, then you need to subscribe to BAN Trader Pro to get my daily BAN Hotlist, my pre-market video walkthrough of the charts every morning, and my BAN strategy trade alerts. Happy Trading!
Silver, one system isn’t enough

Silver, one system isn’t enough

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.01.2021 11:53
When you start freshly entering the trading arena, it is fascinating that all it takes is pushing a button to be in a winning trade (or a losing one). The ease of participation isn’t the only unusual aspect of trading. In this week’s chartbook, we want to illuminate that many traders fail in assuming that one trading system is sufficient. If you, like many others, have after years of struggle finally established an edge, let’s say through a trend following system approach, you risk getting into serious trouble if a market transform into a multi-year sideways market. With only one screwdriver, it is hard to get a nail into the wall. Silver, one system isn’t enough.No matter if you use someone’s trading system or have developed your own, you need to identify its functionality, strengths, and weaknesses.Your system might be one that only provides entry timing. It could be one that requires for all trading signals the market produces to be taken in their entirety or otherwise mathematical expectancy skewed. You might find yourself using a system that, irrespectivly of market direction, trades price patterns in isolation.Silver, Weekly Chart, Silver, One system isn’t enough, Range trading:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of January 20th, 2021.The daily chart above shows a sideways range that can be traded both from the short and the long side by looking for support and resistance zones through fractal volume analysis (blue histogram) and then verifying it through an oscillator. Useable for identifying range extremes.We used a Commodity Channel Index oscillator (CCI) developed by Donald Lambert with settings 6/14.The very last setup shows a low risk bullish long entry where we find a good likelihood of a breakout through the upper bounds of the range.  Silver, Daily Chart, Trend trading:Silver in US Dollar, dayly chart as of January 20th, 2021.This daily chart shows a directional move that can be exploited by fading retracements in the trend direction. An indicator helps measure the development of a trend and specific reentry points as well. In this case, a Stochastic pair with settings: 5/3 and 21/10. Useful to identify overbought and oversold trading zones in a directional market. More precisely, you will find the interception points of the vertical lines to the left of the chart matching the low point of the fast settings line of the Stochastic pair. We call this indicator formation “loops,” which are a good additional tool to measure low-risk entry points within the trend.These readings will again come in useful should we break the sideways range. This we expect to be the case in Silver shortly.Silver, Weekly Chart, Silver, one system isn’t enough:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of January 20th, 2021. bStacking principle-based edges, in a way to identify the appropriate times when each system comes into play, is key as well. This weekly chart gives guidance for direction through linear regression lines. Clearly identifying a long-term trend in Silver (red, blue, green directional lines). Fractal volume analysis of the temporary range in Silver identifies the last weekly long entry to be low risk. We posted this entry in real-time in our free Telegram channel.The key is to know what you are trading. Each trading system has an Achilles heel, and it is essential to see that weakness. Eliminate these vulnerabilities by trading multiple systems. Still, the first step is to know where one needs to look for possible drawdowns. We aim to encourage examining your system in detail where its Achilles heel lays. Do this before the market chops out a leg right under you. Quantify your strategy from this perspective to realize that multiple systems are required. They are required for the various market cycles and market environments. Both on a shorter term and long term basis to not find yourself in a market cycle useless to your approach for a long time.Silver, one system isn’t enough:The benefit of a systematic trading approach is keeping emotions in check in a counterintuitive environment. Once established on a principle basis, it can be a handy tool to be applied to various markets and time frames. It is consequently allowing for flexibility and scalability. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Emerging Markets Stocks and ETFs for 2021

Emerging Markets Stocks and ETFs for 2021

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.01.2021 16:41
There’s not a rigid definition of what an emerging market is. For example, China is still the leading country in many emerging market ETFs and funds. But is it fair to consider China an emerging market any longer? It has nearly 1.4 billion people and was the only major economy globally to see GDP growth in 2020.That’s like calling Giannis Antetokounmpo an up and coming superstar despite winning the last two NBA MVP awards.But even if I did see China as an emerging market, it wouldn’t be my top choice for 2021.If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know that I love emerging market exposure this year. The dollar is weakening and should continue to weaken with trillions more in stimulus and rising commodity prices.Meanwhile, emerging markets are perfectly positioned to exploit this and grow as a result.You also know that I’ve been talking about specific emerging markets like Taiwan, Thailand, and Russia.But in this special emerging markets newsletter , I will aim to further talk about what to look for when investing in a country, what other emerging markets to consider, and why I think they are set to outperform the US markets this year, after many years of underperformance.Why emerging markets?For several reasons!For one, did you know these facts about emerging markets? They have:-85% of the world population-77% of the land mass-63% of global commodities-59% of global GDP (using PPP)-12.5% of world’s market capConsider this for long-term investing too. Advanced economies are aging rapidly while emerging economies have youthful demographics.That’s why PWC believes that emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average.For emerging markets, this could be very advantageous in the coming decades.With American debt building up at an alarming rate, and the U.S. Dollar set for broader declines, this trend could begin sooner than we realize.U.S. investors also usually have >5% exposure to emerging markets, making this an even more untapped opportunity.Aren’t emerging markets risky?Of course, you have to consider political risk, credit risk, and economic risk for emerging markets.But did you see the U.S. Capitol two weeks ago? Have you noticed how its currency has performed since March? Figure 1- U.S. Dollar $USD Have you also seen the Fed’s balance sheet? Have you seen the S&P’s valuation and the tech IPO market?I would even argue that emerging markets could hedge against America’s political, economic, and currency risks right now. The pandemic only exacerbated this.Furthermore, if you look at the returns of the emerging markets I will discuss today: Taiwan (EWT), Russia (ERUS), Thailand (THD), Vietnam (VNM), South Korea (EWY), Indonesia (EIDO), Chile (ECH), and Peru (EPU), you will see that all have outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) since September. Figure 2-SPY, EWT, ERUS, THD, VNM, EWY, EIDO, ECH, EPU comparison chart- Sep. 1, 2020-Present Taiwan iShares ETF (EWT) Figure 3-iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) The Taiwan iShares ETF (EWT) has overheated more than the other emerging market ETFs based on its RSI that I will discuss. But if you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know I love Taiwan.Taiwan has also arguably been the best call I’ve made since starting these newsletters.I have been consistently calling Taiwan a better buy than China, despite China’s undeniable upside. Taiwan has the same sort of regional upside, without the same kind of geopolitical risks.Consider this too. Despite China’s robust economic response to COVID-19, retail sales still fell 3.9% over the full year, marking the first contraction since 1968. Lockdowns have also returned to China with a vengeance thanks to a new wave in COVID-19 infections.Ever since I called the EWT a buy on December 3rd, it has gained nearly 16% and outperformed the MSCI China ETF (MCHI) by approximately 3%.It has also outperformed the SPY S&P 500 ETF by nearly 11%.Taiwan also is unique for a developing country because of its stable fundamentals. It has low inflation, low unemployment, consistent trade surpluses, and high foreign reserves.It also has a diverse and modern hi-tech economy, especially in the semiconductor industry. With a diverse set of trade partners, Taiwan could only be scratching the surface of its potential.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Why You Shouldn’t Get Excited About Gold’s Mini-Rally

Why You Shouldn’t Get Excited About Gold’s Mini-Rally

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.01.2021 16:49
Gold seems to be sleeping off its latest mini-rally and lacks the momentum to reach new highs. What happens from here? Has the USD bottomed? And what does it mean when we factor in the EUR/USD pair and poor economic indicators from Europe into the equation?Not much happened yesterday (Jan. 21), but what happened was relatively informative. And by “relatively” I mean literally just that. Gold moved lower yesterday and in today’s pre-market trading, doing so despite another small move lower in the USD Index. The moves are not big, but they are meaningful. They show that gold’s inauguration-day rally was likely a temporary blip on the radar screen instead of being a game-changer.Figure 1 – COMEX Gold FuturesLooking at the above gold chart, I marked the November consolidation with a blue rectangle, and I copied it to the current situation, based on the end of the huge daily downswing. Gold moved briefly below it in recent days, after which it rallied back up, and right now it’s very close to the upper right corner of the rectangle.This means that the current situation remains very similar to what we saw back in November, right before another slide started – and this second slide was bigger than the first one. Consequently, there’s a good reason for gold to reverse any day (or hour) now.Besides, there’s also a declining resistance line just around the corner.And that’s not even the most important thing. The most important thing is that based on the similarity to how things developed between 2011 and 2013, gold’s downward trajectory is likely to have periodic corrections at this time – up to a point where it simply plunges.Figure 2 - GOLD Continuous Contract (EOD)When the current situation is compared to what we saw about a decade ago, it shows what one should expect, assuming that the history repeats itself.Gold kept on declining with corrections along the way until April. In April, the decline accelerated profoundly. The biggest problem with the latter was that practically nobody expected this kind of volatility. Those who were thinking that it’s just another move lower that will be reversed were very surprised.Right now, you know in advance that a bigger move lower is likely just around the corner, and you won’t be surprised when it comes. Whether we have to wait an additional few days or first see gold rally by $10 or $30 is not that important, if it’s about to slide $150 and then another $200 or so.I would like to add that gold is declining today and based on the similarity to the November consolidation, it’s exactly the day when we should expect to see a decline. Of course, the similarity doesn’t have to persist, and the history doesn’t have to repeat itself to the letter, but what’s happening right now seems to be confirming the analogy in a considerable way. This means that more declines are likely just around the corner. If not immediately, then shortly.Figure 3 - COMEX Silver FuturesSilver turned south after reaching (approximately) the price level that stopped the rally in July and November 2020, and also earlier this year. This seems relatively natural and the outlook for silver remains bearish for the next several weeks.Silver corrected a bit more of this year’s downswing than gold, which is normal given the bearish outlook. The same goes for miners’ underperformance. Let’s keep in mind that silver’s “strength” is temporary – once the decline really starts, and it moves to its final part, silver is likely to catch up big time.Figure 4 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETFAs far as the miners are concerned, mining stocks didn’t correct half of their 2021 decline. They didn’t invalidate the breakdown below the rising support line, either. In fact, the GDX ETF closed yesterday’s session below the 50-day moving average. Technically, nothing changed yesterday.Please note that the November – today consolidation is quite similar to the consolidation that we saw between April and June (see Figure 4 - green rectangles). Both shoulders of the head-and-shoulder formation can be identical, but they don’t have to be, so it’s not that the current consolidation has to end at the right border of the current rectangle. However, the fact that the price is already close to this right border tells us that it would be very normal for the consolidation to end any day now – most likely before the end of January.If we see a rally to $37, or even $38, it won’t change much – the outlook will remain intact anyway and the right shoulder of the potential head-and-shoulders formation will remain similar to the left shoulder.However, does the GDX have to first rally to $37 or $38 to decline? Absolutely not. It could turn south right away, thus surprising most market participants.Figure 5 – USD IndexIn Tuesday’s (Jan. 19) analysis , I commented on the above USD Index chart in the following way:The USD Index is after a major breakout above the declining resistance lines and this breakout was confirmed. Consequently, the USD Index is likely to rally, but is it likely to rally shortly? The answer to this question is being clarified at the moment of writing these words, because the USD Index moved back to its rising short-term support line that’s based on the 2021 bottoms.If the USD Index breaks below it, traders will view the 2021 rally as a zigzag corrective pattern and will probably sell the U.S. currency, causing it to decline, perhaps to the mid-January low or even triggering a re-test of the 2021 low.If the USD Index performs well at this time and rallies back up after touching the support line, and then moves to new yearly highs, it will be then that traders realize that it was definitely not just a zigzag correction, but actually the major bottom. In the previous scenario, they would also realize that, but later, after an additional short-term decline.It’s now clear that the former scenario is being realized. The support levels that could trigger the USD’s reversal are based on the potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern – the red line that’s slightly above 90, and the horizontal line that’s slightly below it. It’s also possible that the USD Index tests it yearly lows. None of the above would be likely to change the outlook for the precious metals sector, at least not beyond the immediate term.Later yesterday (Jan. 21) and also in today’s overnight trading, the USD Index moved to the upper of the above-mentioned support lines. Is the bottom already in? This seems likely, but it’s not crystal-clear yet. However, it doesn’t really matter, because the precious metals market responded to the USD’s strength for just one day (in a meaningful way that is) and taking a closer look at that day reveals that it was not the USDX’s performance that gold reacted to, but to the underlying news – the inauguration-day-based uncertainty. So, even if the USD Index declines some more here before soaring, gold doesn’t have to move significantly higher. In fact, it would be unlikely to do so.Stocks have rallied, and based on this rally, the weekly RSI moved close to 70 once again.Figure 6 – S&P 500 IndexThis is important because the last two major declines were preceded by this very signal. We saw the double-top in the RSI at about 70, exactly when the stock market started its big declines, and we’re seeing the same thing right now. If this was the only thing pointing to much lower stock values on the horizon, I would say that the situation is not so critical, but that’s not the only thing – far from it. Before moving to these non-technical details, let’s recall why the stock market analysis and the USD index analysis matters for precious metals investors and traders.The analyses matter because gold, silver, and mining stocks are likely to decline in parallel with a decline in stocks and the USD’s rally. This is likely to take place up to a certain point, when precious metals show strength and refuse to decline further despite the stock market continuing to fall and the USDX continuing to rally. This kind of performance happened many times, including in the first half of last year.Since the S&P 500 futures are down in today’s overnight trading, perhaps we have indeed seen a top. Even if not, it doesn’t seem that one is very far away, based on how excessive the situation looks from the fundamental point of view. Let’s discuss some of those non-technical issues.Mind Over MatterDespite Janet Yellen’s recent assertion that “the United States does not seek a weaker currency,” her tongue-in-cheek comments are actually doing just that. The newly minted U.S. Treasury secretary urged lawmakers to “act big” with regard to prospective stimulus, saying that the benefits “far outweigh the costs.”And since her worst-kept secret became public on Jan. 18, the USD Index has been under fire ever since. Furthermore, as her words instill the EUR/USD with borrowed confidence, the precious metals are displaying the same bold behavior.Please see below:Figure 7However, despite the narrative overpowering reality, the Eurozone fundamentals don’t support the recent rally. And why is this important? Because as you can see from the chart above, as goes the EUR/USD, so go the PMs.Yesterday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde revealed that the Eurozone economy likely shrank in the fourth quarter – all but sealing a double-dip recession.Please see below:Figure 8 – (Source: Bloomberg/ Holger Zschaepitz)In contrast, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecasting model (as of Jan. 21) has the U.S. economy expanding by 7.5% in Q4. Furthermore, even if we take the Atlanta Fed’s estimate with a grain of salt, the Blue Chip consensus (forecasts made by private-sector economists) is for growth of nearly 4.0% (tallied as of early January). And even more telling, economists with a bottom 10% Q4 GDP forecast ( see Figure 9 - the shaded light blue area below) still expect positive growth.Figure 9The bottom line?We can now add the Eurozone GDP to the long list of relative underperformances.Expanding on the above, European consumer confidence (released yesterday) went backwards again in January and is now less than 10 points above its April low. Furthermore, the current reading is still well-below the long-term average.Figure 10On Jan. 8, I highlighted the significant divergence between European CPI and U.S. CPI (inflation). For context, European CPI was – 0.30% in December (negative for five-straight months), while U.S. CPI was 0.40% in December (positive for seven-straight months).I wrote:Weak CPI is a precursor to a weaker euro. Why so? Because since asset purchases fail to produce any real economic growth, the ECB will be forced to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. As a result, the cocktail of paltry economic activity and lower bond yields leads to capital outflows as foreign (and domestic) investors reallocate money to other geographies (like the U.S.). Thus, capital will likely exit the Eurozone and lead to a lower EUR/USD.And today?Well, it’s exactly what the ECB is doing.Due to the economic malaise confronting Europe, the ECB is targeting its bond-buying activity toward financially weaker counties (like Italy) as opposed to financially stronger countries (like Germany). Essentially, it’s conducting a shadow operation of yield curve control (YCC).Please see below:Figure 11If you analyze the red box above, you can see that Europe’s weighted-average bond yield has increased in 2021. And why is this happening? Because as Europe’s economic deterioration merges with Italy’s fiscal plight, this cocktail has made European bonds riskier, and thus, investors demand a higher interest rate. And while higher interest rates are bullish for a country’s currency when they’re a function of economic growth, a crisis-like spike in yields (due to solvency concerns) means the exact opposite.Furthermore, if you follow the gray bars at the bottom-half of the chart, the ECB actually decreased its bond purchases toward the end of December (2020), Then, once January hit (2021), it was back to business as usual.As a result, the ECB’s attempt to scale back its asset purchases was (and will be) short-lived. And as the economic conditions worsen, the money printer will be working overtime for the foreseeable future.To that point, Bloomberg Economics expects the ECB to purchase €15 billion worth of bonds per week until 2022 – more than doubling its pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) to nearly €1.85 trillion.Please see below:Figure 12And in real-time?Well, the ECB’s balance sheet hit another record-high on Friday (Jan. 15) – with total holdings still at 69% of Eurozone GDP (nearly double the U.S. Fed’s 35%).Figure 13And why does all of this matter?Because, as I highlighted on Jan. 12, the ECB’s relative outprinting is a precursor to a lower EUR/USD.Figure 14I wrote:Turning to the second chart (Figure 6 - on the right), notice how the EUR/USD tracks the FED/ECB ratio? To explain, the ratio (the light blue line) is calculated by dividing the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) balance sheet by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) balance sheet. Essentially, its direction tells you which monetary authority is printing more money. If you analyze the EUR/USD (the dark blue line), it trades higher when the FED is out-printing the ECB (the light blue line is rising) and trades lower when the ECB is out-printing the FED (the light blue line is falling). The key takeaway? With the light blue line falling, it means that the ECB is outprinting the FED . And if this dynamic continues, the EUR/USD (the dark blue line) should move lower as well.The top in the FED/ECB total assets ratio preceded the slide in the EUR/USD less than a decade ago and it seems to be preceding the next slide as well. If the USD Index was to repeat its 2014-2015 rally from the recent lows, it would rally to 114. This level is much more realistic than most market participants would agree on.In conclusion, the EUR/USD’s recent strength is built on a foundation of sand. Instead of following the hard data, traders are letting the narrative cloud their judgment. Moreover, due to their strong correlation with the EUR/USD, gold and silver are falling into the same trap. However, once the semblance of strength evaporates, a decline in the EUR/USD is likely to usher a move lower for the PMs. Furthermore, with gold already approaching the upper trendline of its November consolidation channel, the momentum may wane sooner rather than later.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Recent triggers in these sectors suggest US Stock Markets may enter a rally phase

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 22.01.2021 21:30
Recently, our Best Asset Now (BAN) Hotlist generated a new trigger on the SPY chart.  Typically, this type of trigger suggests the SPY is starting a new, potentially explosive, upside price rally.  But what really interests us is the potential that the strongest sectoral ETFs may continue to see a much stronger upside price rally as a result of this new trigger.RECENT BAN SPY TREND TRIGGERThe strength of the BAN Hotlist is not the general market triggers it gives, such as the SPY, Dow Jones, or NASDAQ, but instead the ability to align these major market triggers with the strongest performing sectoral ETFs. This allows those using the Hotlist and BAN strategy to take advantage of the best-performing assets in the markets in any market trend.  The new SPY trigger, seen on the chart below, suggests the US stock markets may be starting a new upside price trend, which will cause capital to rotate into different sectors.  Our simple BAN Hotlist and strategy helps us identify these sectoral opportunities.QQQ GENERATES A SIMILAR TYPE OF BREAKOUT TRIGGERTraders love when ideas drawn from one chart is corroborated by other charts. As we can see from the chart below, the QQQ appears to have confirmed this BAN trigger with a similar type of upside price breakout. This upside move in the QQQ aligns with some of our recent research that suggested the Technology sector had stalled after having been one of the fastest-growing sectors for several months now.  We may start to see certain sub-sectors of technology really start to advance faster than the SPY/QQQ – which creates explosive opportunities for traders/investors.Recently, we published a research article suggesting a lower US Dollar would prompt major sector rotations in the US and global markets. Within that article, we highlighted the fact that the Materials, Industrials, Technology, and Discretionary sectors had been the hottest sectors of the past 180 days, but the Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials had shown the best strength over the past 90 days.  Technology had fallen/stalled dramatically over the past 90+ days.Overall, we believe the best performing sectors are likely to be sub-sectors of the SPY and QQQ. Potentially, certain components of the Technology, Health Care, Discretionary & Utility sectors.  Beyond that type of general analysis, we rely on the BAN Trader system to rank the “Best Assets Now” and tell us when new trade entry triggers are generated. It is very likely that this new SPY BAN trigger will prompt an extended upside price rally across a number of assets over the next few days/weeks.  Are you ready for these big market rotations expected in 2021?  Do you want to learn how BAN can help you find and trade the “Best Assets Now”? You too can also trade Best Assets Now with no proprietary indicator, scanners, or algorithms just by watching my FREE webinar. Not only will it show you a strategy you can implement tomorrow, but you will also receive over $100 worth of free goodies designed to make you an even better trader... no strings attached. Go ahead and watch the webinar now - click here to start! If you want to improve your own trading strategy and win-rate, then you need to subscribe to BAN Trader Pro to get my daily BAN Hotlist, my pre-market video walkthrough of the charts every morning, and my BAN strategy trade alerts.Happy Trading!
Technology & Energy Sectors Are Hot – Are You Missing Out?

Technology & Energy Sectors Are Hot – Are You Missing Out?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 24.01.2021 21:22
We have seen some really big moves in various S&P sectors over the past 60+ days and these trends look like they may continue for a while.  Near the end of 2020, in October and November, the markets seemed to stall a bit before the US elections, but they have really started to trend much higher over the past 60+ days.  Technology and Energy seem to be leading the charge in some respects. The most important thing for traders is to find decent breakout trends in stocks and sectors that have a real potential for strong continued trending.  When we find these types of longer-term trends, we can scale in and out of the typical up/down price trends, over time, to generate some incredible returns.Technology Heating Up AgainThe move in the IXN Global Technology ETF charted below, looks like it is starting to accelerate higher.  It has already moved +17% over the past 60+ days, but there is a real potential that global investors are starting to pile back into technology ahead of the Q4:2020 earnings reports.  This may prove to be one of the hottest sectors in 2021 – so keep an eye on this new breakout rally.Energy and Exploration Setting Up For Another Move HigherOne of the biggest movers over the past few months has been the recovery of the Oil/Gas/Energy sector after quite a bit of sideways/lower price trending.  You can see from this XOP chart, below, a 44% upside price rally has taken place since early November, and XOP has recently rotated moderately downward – setting up another potential trade setup if this rally continues.  Traders know, the trend if your friend.  Another upside price swing in the XOP, above $72, would suggest this rally mode is continuing.Recently, we published a research article suggesting a lower US Dollar would prompt major sector rotations in the US and global markets where we highlighted the fact that the Materials, Industrials, Technology, and Discretionary sectors had been the hottest sectors of the past 180 days, but the Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials had shown the best strength over the past 90 days.  Technology, Healthcare, Financials, Energy, Consumer Products/Services, Foreign Markets have all been hot over the past 4+ months, but what is trending right now?  We believe the best performing sectors are likely to be sub-sectors of the SPY and QQQ. My research team and I believe Technology and Energy still have lots of room to run.  Financials could be a big winner too if the recent upside trend continues. We rely on the BAN Hotlist to rank the “Best Assets Now” and tell us when new trade entry triggers are generated.In short, 2021 is going to be an incredible year for BAN Trader subscribers because of the big trends, high volatility, stimulus, and policies with the Biden administration. The time is now to learn and trade the Best Assets Now Hotlist using our proven sector rotation strategy. Our BAN Trader Pro strategy is proving to be an incredible advancement that allows us to dominate and generate Alpha. We urge you to take advantage of the BAN Trader Pro technology and prepare for the big trends that we expect to continue throughout all of 2021 and into 2022 and beyond.I am teaching my BAN trading strategy in a 1-hour FREE webinar. The webinar is 100% educational and you will get everything you need to trade my powerful strategy on your own, with no proprietary trading tools or indicators, and with no strings attached. Learn this strategy now and join me in my webinar at https://joinnow.live/s/EPdGTI.Enjoy the rest of the weekend!Chris VermeulenChief Market Strategistwww.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Surprise! Nasdaq Leads Weekly Gains

Surprise! Nasdaq Leads Weekly Gains

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.01.2021 17:08
In a surprise twist, the Nasdaq surged by a healthy 4.2%, managing to close the week at an all-time high. What’s happening to tech stocks?Surging, gaining...come again?Wasn't tech supposed to wither away and die thanks to be big bad Democrat boogeymen? Wasn’t the radical Biden tax agenda and regulatory framework supposed to send your favorite tech stocks plummeting? Wasn’t Biden’s tax plan supposed to take an estimated 5-10% off the earnings per share?For now, it seems like the market is putting more of its hopes into Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan and ignoring his tax and regulation plans. As Treasury Secretary and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen claimed, Biden's primary focus is aiding American families (i.e., stimulus, low-interest rates) and, for now, not raising taxes.But nothing is for sure with this stimulus. Republicans will resist it, and some moderate Democrats may do so as well. With Vice President Kamala Harris as the only tiebreaker for a Democrat majority in the Senate, Biden needs all the support he can get to pass this aggressive stimulus.I maintain my view that the market is too complacent, and that we are about to enter a correction at some point in the short-term. It still reminds me of the Q4 2018 pullback ( read my story here ).For one, valuations are absurd. Tech IPOs are a circus, the S&P 500 is at or near its most-expensive level in recent history on most measures, and the Russell 2000 has never traded this high above its 200-day moving average.While stimulus could be useful for stocks in the short-term, it could almost certainly mean the return of inflation too by mid-year. The worst part about it? The Fed will likely let it run hot. With debt rising and consumer spending expected to increase as vaccines are rolled out to the masses, the Fed is undoubtedly more likely to let inflation rise than letting interest rates rise.Others, however, believe that the market reflects optimism that the global economy will recover with the eventual lifting of COVID-related restrictions and more widely-available vaccines. John Studzinski , vice chairman of Pimco, believes that market valuations are strong and reflect expectations of this eventual reopening and economic recovery by the second half of the year.All of this simply tells me that the market remains a pay-per-view fight between good news and bad news.We may trade sideways this quarter- that would not shock me in the least. But I think we are long overdue for a correction since we haven’t seen one since last March.Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.In a report released last Tuesday (Jan. 19), Goldman Sachs shared the same sentiments.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth. Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening, and I welcome your thoughts and questions.We have a critical week ahead with the Fed set to have its first monetary policy meeting of the year and big earnings announcements on the horizon. Best of luck, have an excellent trading week, and have fun! We'll check back in with you all mid-week. Are We in a Tech Bubble or Not?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPSome of the hottest performing tech stocks announce earnings this week such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA) (yes I consider Tesla more of a tech stock than a car stock), and more.Pay very close attention.Although I am bullish on specific tech sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech for 2021, I’m concerned about the mania consuming tech stocks.Tech valuations, and especially the tech IPO market, terrify me. It reminds me a lot of the dot-com bubble 20-years ago. Remember, the dot-com bubble was a major crash in the Nasdaq after excessive speculation and IPOs sent any internet-related stock soaring. Between 1995-2000 the Nasdaq surged 400%. By October 2002, the Nasdaq declined by a whopping 78%.I have no other words to describe it besides the Nasdaq right now as a circus. Will the bubble pop now? That remains to be seen. But the similarities between now and 2000 are striking.I am sticking with the theme of using the RSI to judge how to call the Nasdaq. An overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, but with the Nasdaq, this appears to have been a consistent pattern over the last few weeks.The Nasdaq pulled back on December 9 after exceeding an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back again after passing 70 again around Christmas time. We also exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year, and what happened on the first trading day of 2021? A decline of 1.47%.The last time I changed my Nasdaq call from a HOLD to a SELL on January 11 after the RSI exceeded 70, the Nasdaq declined again by 1.45%.The Nasdaq has an RSI of around 72 again, and I’m switching the call back to SELL. The Nasdaq is trading in a precise pattern and I am basing my calls on that pattern.I still love tech and am bullish for 2021. But I need to see the Nasdaq have a legitimate cooldown period and move closer to its 50-day moving average before considering it a BUY.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
After Your Recent High - Where to Now, Gold?

After Your Recent High - Where to Now, Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.01.2021 17:39
Gold is suffering a hang-over after it’s early January highs, while the EUR/USD pair is buckling - so when gold declines, where will its bottom be?After injecting itself with Janet Yellen’s stimulus sentiment, gold came down from its highs on Friday (Jan. 22).And like the GDX ETF, it’s important to put gold’s recent run into context. For starters, gold is still trading below its August declining resistance line, it topped at its triangle-vertex-based reversal point (which I warned about previously ) and the yellow metal remains well-off its January highs.Figure 1Looking at the chart below, we can see gold approaching the upper trendline of its November consolidation channel.Figure 2I marked the November consolidation with a blue rectangle, and I copied it to the current situation, based on the end of the huge daily downswing. Gold moved briefly below it in recent days, after which it rallied back up, and right now it’s very close to the upper right corner of the rectangle.This means that the current situation remains very similar to what we saw back in November, right before another slide started – and this second slide was bigger than the first one. I wrote about this previously (Jan. 21), saying that there’s a good reason for gold to reverse any day (or hour) now.And what happened last Friday?Well, gold fell by 0.52% as the Yellen -led intoxication began to wear off. Gold also continues to decline in today’s pre-market trading, despite a small move lower in the USD Index.Also adding to the upswing, one of the most popular gold indicators – the stochastic oscillator (see below) dipped below 20 last week. Itching to move off oversold levels, the yellow metal responded in kind. However, if you analyze the green arrows below (at the bottom of the chart), you can see that the first green arrow has a red arrow directly above it (marking gold’s November top).Currently, the stochastic oscillator is right near that level, and with November acting as a prelude, the yellow metal could suffer a similar swoon in the coming days or weeks.Figure 3 – Gold Continuous Contract Overview and Slow Stochastic Oscillator Chart ComparisonBack in November, gold’s second decline (second half of the month) was a bit bigger than the initial (first half of the month) slide that was much sharper. The January performance is very similar so far, with the difference being that this month, the initial decline that we saw in the early part of the month was bigger.This means that if the shape of the price moves continues to be similar, the next short-term move lower could be bigger than what we saw so far in January and bigger than the decline that we saw in the second half of November. This is yet another factor that points to the proximity of $1,700 as the next downside target.Moving on to cross-asset implications, Yellen’s dollar-negative comments tipped over a string of dominoes across the currency market. Ushering the EUR /USD higher, the boost added wind to the yellow metal’s sails.Figure 4And because the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement in the USD Index, the currency pair is an extremely important piece of gold’s puzzle. However, beneath the surface, the euro is already starting to crack. After breaching critical support last week, Yellen’s comments basically saved the currency, as a rally in the EUR/USD was followed by a rally in the EUR/GBP.Figure 5However, with Eurozone fundamentals drastically underperforming the U.S. (and many other countries as well), a come-to-Jesus moment could be on the horizon.In summary, Friday’s detox – with the EUR/USD flat-lining and gold moving lower – could be a precursor to a rather messy withdrawal. Right now, the euro is hanging on for dear life, as technicals, fundamentals and cross-currency signals all point to a weaker euro. As a result, due to gold’s strong positive correlation with the EUR/USD, the yellow metal is unlikely to exit the battle unscathed.So, why is gold likely to bottom at roughly $1,700 (for the interim)?One of the reasons is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the recent 2020 rally, and the other is the 1.618 extension of the initial decline. However, there are also more long-term-oriented indications that gold is about to move to $1,700 and more likely, even lower.(…) gold recently failed to move above its previous long-term (2011) high. Since history tends to repeat itself, it’s only natural to expect gold to behave as it did during its previous attempt to break above its major long-term high.And the only similar case is from late 1978 when gold rallied above the previous 1974 high. Let’s take a look at the chart below for details (courtesy of chartsrus.com)Figure 6 - Gold rallying in 1978, past its 1974 highAs you can see above, in late 1978, gold declined severely right after it moved above the late-1974 high. This time, gold invalidated the breakout, which makes the subsequent decline more likely. And how far did gold decline back in 1978? It declined by about $50, which is about 20% of the starting price. If gold was to drop 20% from its 2020 high, it would slide from $2,089 to about $1,671 .This is in perfect tune with what we described previously as the downside target while describing gold’s long-term charts:Figure 7 - Relative Strength Index (RSI), GOLD, and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ComparisonThe chart above shows exactly why the $1,700 level is even more likely to trigger a rebound in gold, at the very minimum.The $1,700 level is additionally confirmed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2015 – 2020 rally.There’s also a good possibility that gold could decline to the $1,500 - $1,600 area or so ( 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci retracements and the price level to which gold declined initially in 2011). In fact, based on the most recent developments in gold and the USDX (how low the latter fell without a rally in the former), it seems that $1,500 is more likely to be the final bottom than $1,700. The $1,700 level is likely to be a bottom – yes – but an interim one only.Before looking at the chart below (which is very similar to the chart above, but indicates different RSI, volume, etc.), please note the – rather obvious – fact: gold failed to break above its 2011 highs. Invalidations of breakouts are sell signals, and it’s tough to imagine a more profound breakout that could have failed. Thus, the implications are extremely bearish for the next several weeks and/or months.Figure 8 - RSI, GOLD, and MACD ComparisonThe odd thing about the above chart is that I copied the most recent movement in gold and pasted it above gold’s 2011 – 2013 performance. But – admit it – at first glance, it was clear to you that both price moves were very similar.And that’s exactly my point. The history tends to rhyme and that’s one of the foundations of the technical analysis in general. Retracements, indicators, cycles, and other techniques are used based on this very foundation – they are just different ways to approach the recurring nature of events.However, every now and then, the history repeats itself to a much greater degree than is normally the case. In extremely rare cases, we get a direct 1:1 similarity, but in some (still rare, but not as extremely rare) cases we get a similarity where the price is moving proportionately to how it moved previously. That’s called a market’s self-similarity or the fractal nature of the markets. But after taking a brief look at the chart, you probably instinctively knew that since the price moves are so similar this time, then the follow-up action is also likely to be quite similar.In other words, if something looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck. And it’s likely to do what ducks do.What did gold do back in 2013 at the end of the self-similar pattern? Saying that it declined is true, but it doesn’t give the full picture - just like saying that the U.S. public debt is not small. Back then, gold truly plunged. And before it plunged, it moved lower in a rather steady manner, with periodic corrections. That’s exactly what we see right now.Please note that the above chart (Figure 8) shows gold’s very long-term turning points (vertical lines) and we see that gold topped a bit after it (not much off given their long-term nature). Based on how gold performed after previous long-term turning points (marked with purple, dashed lines), it seems that a decline to even $1,600 would not be out of ordinary.Finally, please note the strong sell signal from the MACD indicator in the bottom part of the chart. The only other time when this indicator flashed a sell signal while being so overbought was at the 2011 top. The second most-similar case is the 2008 top.The above-mentioned self-similarity covers the analogy to the 2011 top, but what about the 2008 performance?If we take a look at how big the final 2008 decline was, we notice that if gold repeated it (percentage-wise), it would decline to about $1,450. Interestingly, this would mean that gold would move to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level based on the entire 2015 – 2020 rally. This is so interesting, because that’s the Fibonacci retracement level that (approximately) ended the 2013 decline.History tends to rhyme, so perhaps gold is going to decline even more than the simple analogy to the previous turning points indicates. For now, this is relatively unclear, and my target area for gold’s final bottom is quite broad.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBPUSD Testing The Medium-Term Trend Line

GBPUSD Testing The Medium-Term Trend Line

John Benjamin John Benjamin 26.01.2021 09:52
Dollar Index likely to push higherEURUSD Stuck Near Technical ResistanceThe euro currency is looking to break out from the technical resistance range of 1.2177 and 1.2144.However, price action remains weaker as it struggles to break out from this range. Meanwhile, the ascending triangle pattern continues to remain in play for the moment.In the event that prices break out above 1.2177, then we would see a rise toward 1.2300 at the very least.The stochastics oscillator currently is moving down from the overbought levels and therefore signals that price action could potentially push lower.However, this is subject to price is breaking the minor trend line that we see for the moment.Or breakdown below this trendline will see the euro currency once again attempting to slide towards the technical support near 1.2050.Price action in the British pound sterling is on track to close with muted gains on Monday. This comes as the GBPUSD attempted to push higher intraday above the 1.3700 level.However, prices pulled back lower to briefly test the medium-term trendline. From a daily chart perspective, a break of this trendline could possibly see prices once again sliding towards the 1.3500 level of support.The stochastics oscillator on the four-hour chart is currently pushing lower suggesting that the momentum might be heading to the downside.As a result, we expect the cable to continue trading somewhat mixed over the coming few sessions.The test of 1.3611 will be crucial as a breakdown below this level will no doubt open the way for the GBPUSD to test the 1.3500 level.Oil Prices Remain MixedWTI crude oil prices continue to maintain a mixed bias with prices giving back the intraday gains made.As a result, oil prices are once again trading near the lower end of the sideways range at 51.87.Given that this consolidation comes after the recent rise in prices, we could expect to see prices snapping lower.The recent rebound of this lower end of the range so the stochastics oscillator rising from the oversold levels.However, at the time of writing, the stochastics oscillator is once again likely to signal or move to the townsite.If oil prices lose the 51.87 technical support, then we expect a decline towards the 49.00 handle eventually. This will also see a confluence with the longer term trend line.Gold Prices Confined To Friday’s RangeThe precious metal is trading subdued with much of price action staying within the range from last Friday.As a result, price action is seen consolidating near the 1850 level of support multiple times. This consolidation could potentially give way for the markets to break out in the near term.To the downside, the 1817.79 level of technical support remains within scope. Given the multiple rejections near this level recently, we expect the support level to hold.Meanwhile, to the upside or close above the recent highs near 1873 to 1874 level could see prices eventually rising toward the 1911.50 technical resistance.
Will Biden’s Executive Blitzkrieg Defeat Gold?

Will Biden’s Executive Blitzkrieg Defeat Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 26.01.2021 12:22
A new sheriff is in in town, and he’s making some rearrangements. Will the new order of things support the price of gold?What a blitzkrieg! Joe Biden certainly wastes no time in signing executive orders. Since inauguration, he introduced several policies, including mandating masks on federal property, in airports and on certain public transportation, and the end of a travel bank on some countries. Biden also terminated the construction of the wall at the Mexican border, halted the withdrawal from the WHO and placed the U.S. back on the path to rejoining the Paris climate accord.We’re seeing a reversal of many of Trump’s policies. The new President’s actions shouldn’t materially affect the gold market , but if they manage to restore widespread confidence in the U.S. government, they could limit the safe-haven demand for gold .Biden also modified the government’s stance on the epidemic in the U.S., treating it very seriously. He undertook several executive actions intended to speed up the production of COVID-19 supplies, thereby increasing testing capacity, and hopefully reducing the spread of the coronavirus . Biden also started a “100 days mask challenge”, urging Americans to wear masks, and announced a “National Strategy for COVID-19 Response and Pandemic Preparedness”, arguing that “America deserves a response to the COVID-19 pandemic that is driven by science, data, and public health — not politics”.All these actions show that combatting the pandemic will be Biden’s priority and that he intends to deliver a more centralized federal response to the epidemiological threat. It’s high time! As the charts below show, the coronavirus has already infected almost 25 million Americans while killing more than 400,000.Figure 1Figure 2The U.S. equity markets welcomed Biden’s actions by reaching new record highs. However, these gains and increased risk appetite among investors didn’t prevent the modest jump in gold prices in the aftermath of the inauguration. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal increased to above $1,860 on Thursday (Jan. 21).Figure 3Implications for GoldBut what do Biden’s rearrangements imply for the gold market in the medium and long run? Well, mainstream economists and the markets expect that Biden’s actions, including fiscal stimulus, will speed up the fight with the pandemic and will revive the economy. This positive sentiment could be negative for the yellow metal.However, I believe that people overestimate the positive economic impact of the upcoming stimulus. After all, many people have money, but they can’t spend it due to widespread lockdowns, and there will be a huge price to pay for aid coming in the form of a ballooned fiscal deficit and public debt . But the problem is that neither money nor debt constitute the real wealth, so I remain skeptical about the benefits of another government’s fiscal package.Of course, my opinion is irrelevant here. What is important is that Mr. Market likes the idea of additional stimulus, so the bonanza in the financial markets can last. The expectations of higher economic growth and accompanying stronger risk appetite could be negative for gold .However, at some point, the fragility and limitation of the debt driven growth will become clear – you cannot print wealth – and investors will face the harsh reality of a debt trap . It will be delayed, but there will be a reaction to the increased debt and the risk of higher inflation . This reaction, in turn, should be beneficial for the yellow metal.Not long ago, I was afraid that U.S. fiscal policy will be less dovish in 2021 – however, with Biden’s fiscal stimulus in the cards, the fiscal policy could actually become even more lavish this year than it was in 2020. It should also be a supportive factor for the price of gold, especially considering that it would force the Fed to remain very accommodative as well.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Russell 2000 ETF Initiates New Rally Trend

Russell 2000 ETF Initiates New Rally Trend

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 26.01.2021 22:38
Last week my team and I alerted our readers to the current trends and shifting sectors that are getting hotter every day.  Technology, Energy, Financials, Industrials and others are experiencing bullish trends we haven't seen in years.  The Russell 2000 ETF, URTY, is starting a new breakout uptrend just after our BAN Trader Pro system suggested the SPY may initiate a new bullish rally.  You can read relevant research posts here: Recent triggers in these sectors suggest US Stock Markets may enter a rally phase and Technical Traders are using the BAN Hotlist triggers with huge success using regular ETFs, Leverage ETFs, and Options.As we can see in the chart below, the Russell 2000 has been one of the top performers since just after the November 2020 elections. Originating a breakout trigger on November 3, near $43.46, and confirming a “New High Breakout” on November 9, near $51.37, the Russell 200 sector has been rallying very strongly over the past 60+ days. The current “New Price High” breakout suggests this rally may continue.  Fibonacci price extensions show a peak may target levels near $125~$130 – nearly 20%+ higher than current prices.These sector trends that initiated in early November 2020 are a result of capital being deployed in sectors that are expected to benefit from new policies, Q4:2020 earnings, and renewed investor interest in 2021. Billions in capital have been redeployed into the markets with very high expectations.  This will result in big trends, increased volatility and even more opportunities for efficient traders. My Best Asset Now strategy that I teach to you for free helps you find these hot sectors and ride them out for explosive gains.The strength of this uptrend in URTY, breaking above the January 2020 highs, suggests any continued rally from this point may be reflective of the incredible -$80.34 collapse that took place as a result of COVID-19.  Using this range as a basis for future upside price expansion, Fibonacci Price Theory suggests a $130 to $141 upside target level. If these levels are accurate, we may see another 25%+ upside move in the Russell 2000 ETF, URTY.With so much opportunity in ETFs and other stocks/sectors, it is important for traders to be able to identify the best setups, triggers and trends.  Our BAN Trader Pro newsletter service is designed to help you accomplish that with our easy to follow trade alerts and my daily pre-market report.  The daily BAN Hotlist, also included in the BAN Trader Pro newsletter service, provides a very clear ranking and trigger system that shows you to trade the very best trend setups given their relative strength and momentum for more active traders who want to enhance their own strategies.One of our members recently wrote us this email:Hello Chris– I want to share a success story but do not want my real name shared (you can use my first name  - “Dave”)I signed up in late December and have taken 7 trades using the BAN system.  I did get into HAIL and SILJ not on a new system signals but as part of the “pre-launch” of the actual BAN system that started in January. All 7 trades I exited in profit.  I’ve been using the signals to go in and out of swing trades as “New” alerts are added.  I’m looking forward to the market turning over and entering into 3 trades at the top of the list (sic).I signed up for the quarterly plan at $250 per quarter, that means I have already gotten a 2,189% ROI on my initial investment.  I’ve more than paid for my subscription for the whole year 5x over in 1 month.Chris – Thank you very much for setting up this system.  It is easy to use, easy to understand and frankly gives you great entry signals.  I very much like quick in and out trades in addition to the longer horizon trades that you teach.  Just waiting for the market to turn over to get into those trades and use your system but in the meantime, your signals are giving great entry points. Dave, sent by email on January 21, 2021. Dave's public review can be found at The Technical Traders - Verified Reviews.I publish these articles and research posts to teach our readers the importance of using efficient trading strategies to grow their wealth, achieve financial goals, and have more free time.  2021 is going to be full of great trading opportunities for those who know how to take advantage of sector rotations, relative strength and momentum. Quite literally, hundreds of these setups and trades will be generated over the next 3 to 6 months for those subscribers using BAN strategy.  Sign up now and I will teach you how to create and trade your own hotlist in my FREE (less than) one-hour tutorial on the Best Asset Now.For those that don't have the time to research and create their own BAN Hotlist, you can get my Hotlist, research, and trade alerts delivered to you with the BAN Trader Pro newsletter service. Subscribers of BAN Trader Pro will also receive my daily pre-market video where I walk through the charts of all the major asset classes, my BAN Hotlist, and other trade setups and things to watch out for in the markets.  You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to only trade the Best Assets Now to generate incredible results.Happy Trading!
GBPUSD Edges Higher But Remains Range-Bound

GBPUSD Edges Higher But Remains Range-Bound

John Benjamin John Benjamin 27.01.2021 08:17
Dollar trades mixed ahead of FOMC meetingEuro Recoups Losses The euro currency pared losses from Monday as the US dollar weakened on Tuesday.Price action continues to remain to consolidate near the key resistance area of 1.2177 – 1.2144.Since Friday, the euro currency has been stuck in this resistance area. Meanwhile, the ascending triangle pattern continues to remain in play.For price to continue to push higher, a breakout above the 1.2177 level is needed.To the downside, a breakdown of the trend line could open the way for the euro to retest the 1.2050 level a bit more firmly.The British pound sterling followed suit with many of its peers by paring losses from Tuesday.Price action posted a strong rebound, which coincides with the medium-term trend line. This rebound saw prices breaking past the 1.3700 handle once again.Further gains are needed to confirm the continuation of the upside.For the moment, the Stochastics oscillator shows that there could be further room to the upside.However, if prices reverse, then watch for the trend line to break. This will open the way to the 1.3500 level for the GBPUSD.Crude Oil Maintains A Hold On The Sideways Range WTI crude oil prices continue to remain trading flat within the larger horizon. Price action gave back the short term gains made.For the moment, oil prices remain firmly entrenched within the 53.70 and 51.87 levels.With prices failing to push higher, we could see an eventual breakdown.A strong close below 51.87 will no doubt see the 49.00 level coming into play.But for the moment, the sideways range could continue, unless the breakout is driven by some strong fundamentals.Gold Prices Subdued On Stimulus Worries The precious metal was seen trading subdued albeit, trading flat. Price action managed to post intraday gains before giving them back.As a result, gold prices are back trading strongly near the 1850 handle. A close below this level could open the way toward the 1817.80 level of support once again.However, the direction is likely to be determined by some fundamental catalyst for the moment.To the upside, the 1911.50 level is within reach if gold prices can close out above the 1874.00 level.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

The Sky Has Just Cleared for Stocks in the Short Run

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.01.2021 16:38
Yesterday, I highlighted the seesaw nature of the S&P 500 grind just in time for the intraday bear raid to hit. How much of a damage has it done, should we pay attention to hanging man candlestick? My article discussed not so smooth sailing ahead in the month of February. Muddling though, yes – start of a real correction, no. Why should it be on the immediate horizon anyway? Quoting my yesterday‘s analysis: (…) The Fed‘s foot is back on the pedal, but inflation hasn‘t reared its ugly head yet – the path of least resistance for stocks remains higher. Unless the corona vaccination programs disappoint the markets, hurting cyclicals and the breadth of stock market advance, that is. Such a turn would take quite some activist economic policy steps to counter, as you can imagine. In today‘s article, I‘ll shine light upon yesterday‘s tremors, and the S&P 500 sectoral outlook, demonstrating that we‘re merely experiencing another rotation within the ongoing stock bull market. And the stock pickers will also benefit. Now that you know what‘s up, let‘s dive into the technicals (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook Long lower knot with the bears temporarily flexing their muscle before the bulls stepped in. Improving volume shows a certain degree of conviction, which is a welcome sign for today‘s session. While the daily indicators are extended, they don‘t support any call for a great rollover to the downside. My yesterday‘s words are valid also today, with us having seen the opening push lower already: (...) The daily indicators seem to favor largely sideways to mildly higher trading action in the nearest days. That‘s one point of view, with the other being that prices haven‘t declined enough to lure in the buyers yet. Given the volume examination, I lean towards sideways trading coupled with an unsuccessful push lower as the most probable scenario over the coming 1-2 weeks. Then, higher prices. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) have also held ground quite well yesterday. While slowing down in pace, the ascent isn‘t broken with a lower low. Investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) had a much better day yesterday. Both leading credit market ratios – high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) and investment grade corporate bonds to longer dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) – support the stock bull market to continue. With the latter one refusing to budge yesterday, we have likely seen local lows for January already. The stocks to 10-year Treasuries ($SPX:$UST) ratio shows the preference for risk-on assets as intact. The post-election performance is contained within a quite tight, upward sloping channel. The spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasuries is telling me about increasing willingness to park funds on the sidelines. That‘s the very short-term, daily interpretation. The big picture view reveals that money is flowing away from the long end of the curve (understandably so given the surefire prospects for the return of inflation, in my view), and stocks are benefiting. Volatility spiked yesterday before retreating soundly. Another push higher is likely to come soon, but I am not looking for it to overcome yesterday‘s highs really. I view $VIX as rangebound for the coming weeks with a spike here and there, within the pattern of lower highs. What would make me change my mind? A new narrative replacing the current one of a spending-heavy administration making its moves hand in hand with the Fed. Hand on your heart, how likely is that this soon in the game? S&P 500 Sectoral Performance Technology (XLK ETF) smartly recovered from the intraday plunge but might not be yet out of the woods as the coming sessions would show. Considering its appreciation since the early September climactic top that I‘ve called, the sector has visibly slowed down after leading the S&P 500 from the vicious bear market bottom on March 23. Semiconductors (XSD ETF) belong among the leaders too. While they have performed much stronger than technology since Sep 03, they haven‘t recovered the daily setback to the same degree. Still, they keep trading within their steeper upward sloping channel comfortably thus far. Even after a one way elevator ride, a period of consolidation sooner or later comes, and we might be on the doorstep of one here. Healthcare (XLV ETF) is the second S&P 500 sectoral heavyweight, and it keeps doing fine. Pushing higher, being among the better performing sectors recently, which is supported by its internals. Enter biotech. What semiconductors are to tech, biotech (XBI ETF) is to healthcare. And this leading segment continues to outperform healthcare as a whole, which bodes well for the S&P 500 as such. Financials (XLF ETF) are the third heavyweight, and appear to be done in the very short run with their corrective move. That‘s the message of rising volume and long lower knot to me. The value to growth sectoral ratio (VTV:QQQ) shows we‘ve reached levels consistent with another rotational wave into growth. Just look at the sectors trading with low price/book and price/earnings ratios, and you‘ll see the defensives (utilities, consumer staples), financials and real estate rebounding. Materials, industrials and energy are also ready to rebound, displaying the same price patterns as financials. Summary A sharp intraday correction has come and gone, and the tech performance remains the key precondition of its return. And given the short-term relative weakness in the sector, the nearest days may bring another push lower that won‘t however jeopardize the bull market in the least.  
Rosy February for S&P 500? Not So Fast

Rosy February for S&P 500? Not So Fast

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.01.2021 09:20
With Biden in the White House, Trump's hallmark policies with the exception of 2017 tax cuts, are being undone. Would that be true also about the stock bull market that I called back in spring 2020? Still in autumn that year, I‘ve been saying that there isn‘t any stopping of the bulls (for now). The Fed‘s foot is back on the pedal, but inflation hasn‘t reared its ugly head yet – the path of least resistance for stocks remains higher. Unless the corona vaccination programs disappoint the markets, hurting cyclicals and the breadth of stock market advance, that is. Such a turn would take quite some activist economic policy steps to counter, as you can imagine. Can there be a better indicator than the dollar having rolled over to the downside, which I called in early summer to have happened? Ever since, the dollar has been largely on the defensive, and I projected that to last well into 2021. Here we are, with mammoth stimulus plans, reparations for slavery, minimum wage hikes, Green New Deal coming – you name it, we have it – and my prediction is naturally valid also today. Wait, there is one more clue, and that‘s interest rates. Slowly but steadily, they‘re rising, especially on the long end. With the decreasing foreign appetite (did you know that Russia‘s gold reserves already surpassed its dollar reserves in value terms?) for U.S. government bonds, the Fed will have to step forward increasingly more. Rising rates will be reinforcing inflation as the two go hand in hand. Rising rates thus can‘t be viewed exclusively as bullish spirits returning into the real economy, but as an inflationary surprise looming that will also be reflected in growing outperformance of international stocks vs. the U.S. stock indices. Hi, my name is Monica and I‘m finally back, with truly mine and free Stock Trading Signals, and own website to boot! Nothing is standing now in the way of my personal blog and active trading style. Yes, I am so happy to be making a return with my very own daily free analyses and intraday updates after being the author of Stock Trading Alerts since early 2020. What a great and rewarding experience I could have delivered to you, the truly grateful ones. Check out my fresh bio, drop me your questions anytime, and I‘ll answer to the benefit of all. Now that you know what‘s up, let‘s dive into the technicals (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook 2021 is about stocks trading near the upper range of their Bollinger Bands volatility spectrum. The weekly indicators haven‘t flashed sell signals, yet volume isn‘t at its strongest. Still, it‘s representative of an ongoing bull market, where 2021 won‘t however be as good a year for the stock market as 2020 was. Still, it‘ll be a good year where S&P 500 would comfortably beat not only the 4,000, but 4,200 mark. We‘ll also experience significant corrections but the nearest one won‘t arrive in February in earnest. I see the coming month as a relatively weak one, muddle through if you will. The daily chart shows the upward sloping trend channel nicely, with the breakdown attempt at the turn of the year soundly defeated. The daily indicators seem to favor largely sideways to mildly higher trading action in the nearest days. That‘s one point of view, with the other being that prices haven‘t declined enough to lure in the buyers yet. Given the volume examination, I lean towards sideways trading coupled with an unsuccessful push lower as the most probable scenario over the coming 1-2 weeks. Then, higher prices. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) aren‘t pushing higher as vigorously as they had been recently. A sell signal? Hardly. Sign of caution? Don‘t jump the gun. I count on the pattern of higher highs and higher lows to continue, supporting the stock market rally. The ratio of high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) isn‘t flashing danger yet either. Visually, there is no relative overextension to S&P 500, and the recent moves favor muddling through with an upward bias over the coming weeks. Inspecting S&P 500 relative to the high yield corporate bonds to all bonds (PHB:$DJCB) ratio shows quite clear skies ahead. Risk appetite isn‘t really waning. Rising Treasury yields (i.e. falling Treasury prices) are synonymous with economic expansion but a bit more is at play in 2021. This year, I am turning towards the explanation of inflation slowly but surely making a return, which is nowhere better seen than with the food price indices. The Fed also says that food price inflation is the best predictor of forthcoming, broader inflation. That explains quite nicely the rising rates in the face of the real economy waiting for months for the stimulus to arrive. With the dollar stuck deep in its bear market as one more sign of the inflationary storm striking this year, who would want to take the other side of the trade? Emerging Markets, Smallcaps, and S&P 500 Market Breadth It‘s my view that we‘ve entered the era of emerging markets (EEM ETF) outperforming the U.S. indices. That doesn‘t mean the S&P 500 would crater, but it would lag behind in appreciation. The emerging markets support the stock upswing to go on still. The Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) keeps trading in sync with the S&P 500, helping in its rebound from the mid-Jan lows. Their strong performance shows that they expect smooth sailing for the announced $1.9T stimulus plan. New highs new lows are the only (temporary) fly in the bullish ointment here. Spelling solid potential for a bear raid, I look for the downside from this divergence in the making to prove rather temporary and shallow. Precious Metals and Bitcoin Let‘s talk real money, these safe haven assets. Yes, given the 2020 performance and cues from monetary policy taken, it‘s hard to argue that Bitcoin didn‘t behave as another fiat currency nemesis. Still, I‘ll focus on precious metals within this section, because I‘ll be introducing Gold Trading Signals in the near future, so stay tuned for yet another daily publication of mine. Another market call that proved correct – gold didn‘t really give up all its summer rally, and the prolonged base building is in its latter stages. Yes, it‘s my view that we‘re going to see gold fireworks enter this spring, and that these prices represent a favorable entry point for a medium-term oriented investor. As for the short-term one, I‘ll cater to their needs in my upcoming daily publication, and today, with my first 2021 analysis, aim to provide you with a big picture view over the financial landscape at large, kind of my gameplan for the first half of 2021 if not more. The gold miners to gold ratio is trading at favorable levels for the buyers, and I look for the miners to start performing better over the next few weeks. The healthy period of long base building is drawing to an end. Silver would also join in the party, and the gold chart is sending a signal that this is going to unfold before too long. Bitcoin, the greatest beneficiary of aggressive monetary policy in 2020, agrees. Its chart pattern would favor some more sideways trading as a healthy precondition of another upleg, but don‘t be surprised if the cryptocurrency correction doesn‘t flatten the 50-day moving average. Yes, I‘m looking for the bulk of the corrective move in terms of prices, to be over already. Summary Over the coming two weeks of earnings reports, stocks are in for some short-term volatility. Sizable correction? Not really. But we‘re trading at quite elevated levels, and the month of February is shaping up to be weaker than January. No doubt about it, but there won‘t be a correction to speak of this early in 2021. With the Fed stepping up its balance sheet expansion, the monetary policy hasn‘t yet lost its charm, and inflation isn‘t on the radar screen of most. Investor sentiment is at greed, but not extreme greed. The put to call ratio is rising, which points to a not so smooth sailing ahead. Still, the bull market has better days in its future, but given the momentary balance of forces and especially the risk-reward ratio, I‘m not jumping in with both feet. As this is my first analysis in 2021, I‘m actually waiting on the sidelines for now. Subscribers to Monica‘s Insider Club, which features the trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals, would know right away when I make any move.
When to adjust your stop loss

When to adjust your stop loss

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 26.01.2021 09:35
When to adjust your stop loss   I have already written a lengthy report with plenty of examples on how to manage your risk when in a trade in THIS article. But I wanted to provide a template here to give you an idea of exactly when I normally adjust the stop loss.  Let's get straight to the point. The diagram below describes how I normally adjust the stop loss for a long trade and the opposite of this for a sell trade: Source: TradingCandles.com   To show you how I use the above template to manage the stop in some of my most recent trade signals for the private group, here are a couple of real world examples: Example 1: USD/CAD The USD/CAD was one of my recent trade signals. The idea was to sell the rallies into resistance in a downtrend. So, after a two- or three-day rebound into the bearish trend line, I thought it was the right time to issue a sell trade idea:  Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com   In addition to the above chart, I posted the below hourly chart showing the specifics of the trade entry, as well a short rationale behind the idea: "USD/CAD daily sows price reaching a potential resistance area (trend line and 21-day eMA) after a counter trend rebound off the lows. The long-term trend is bearish. So we will look for a sell setup here." "USD/CAD short trade idea on H1 chart – the idea is based off the daily and the fact that on this timeframe rates have rallied to and stalled at the 61.8% Fibo. The invalidation level is above the most recent high on H1 and also the trend line above the daily. The main target is the liquidity below the recent low " Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com     After providing the above trade signal, rates started to go down as we had envisaged, prompting me to provide the following update, as my focus now was on reducing the risk (as we always do after entering a trade): "USD/CAD update – lower the stop on this so we can lock in some profit as price has now created some structure below our entry range. It is important to continually monitor your positions, especially at times like now when the markets are all over the place. " Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com    As can be seen from the above 4-hour chart, the reason why I moved the stop lower was because of the fact price had created a structure of interim lower highs and lower lows. I did not take into account the entry range and didn't just move the stop loss just for the sake of moving it to breakeven or better. But there was good reason for us to do so, and price action told us when it was the right time.  As it happened, the USD/CAD stalled just ahead of our intended target, which, together with the fact the US dollar was weakening against some other currencies, meant it was probably the best time to close it manually. So I provided the following rationale and chart for the subscribers behind my decision to close it ahead of the target: "USD/CAD closing it manually here for at least +125 pips profit. Oil prices have stalled and the US dollar has shown signs of life against some currencies already e.g. against euro and gold. So let's not take any chances and close this for a very good profit."  Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com    Example 2: GBP/JPY Another of our trade ideas which required management of the stop was the long GBP/JPY setup, which was issued on 11th January 2021. This is what I wrote to the group: "GBP/JPY is looking quite bullish and think more gains are likely in my view as ongoing risk rally keeps the pressure on the safe haven yen and I think the pound will bounce back because no-deal Brexit has been avoided. The next key objective is the long-term bear trend and previous high around 142.71ish " Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com    I then issued the specifics of the GBP/JPY long trade idea on the 4-hour chart as rates were testing the bullish trend line. The stop low below the most recent lows on 4H candles and thus the trend line: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com    The GBP/JPY hit our first target for at least +100 pips and by now I had tightened the stop on the small portion still left open as shown on the updated chart to lock in some profit in case price reversed: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com    As it turned out, this trade reversed and stopped us out of the second portion (for a small profit). But on reflection, perhaps I shouldn't have adjusted the the stop too tightly as price subsequently rebounded again after re-testing our entry area: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com    Final words It is impossible to know ahead of time whether adjusting the stop loss is better than not doing anything at all. The way I see it is that you should adjust the stop loss as price action evolves and the market makes new price structures. On occasions, you might regret adjusting the stop loss. But essentially, what you want to do is reduce risk and remain in control of the trade. A small win is, after all, a win, and certainly not a loss. I would rather make a small win than lose a full 1R on any given trade.   
Bitcoin, a peaceful future

Bitcoin, a peaceful future

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 27.01.2021 09:55
Part of the government being able to lend against your savings is the need to deposit your currency into the banking system. You’re forced to do so since it is impracticable to make long-distance financial transactions with cash tucked under your mattress and the risk of theft. Bitcoin allows for long-distance trade in a short time. This, without exposure to the government and as such not vulnerable to devaluation. This is more than just attractive.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, From last week’s chart book:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of January 18th, 2021Last week we posted this daily chart to find ourselves taking four profitable long entries (posted in real time in our free Telegram channel) within this sliver of a forecasted support zone (see chart below). BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Just like Ordered:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of January 25th, 2021BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Large time frame precision forecasting:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of January 18th, 2021We also posted this monthly chart (see above) with a single-entry price in our last week’s chartbookpublication. Bitcoin dropped from US$35,770 to US$28,850. It turned around only 38 points below the predicted entry-level of US$28,888. Trading entry risk of less than 0.13 percent (see chart below).BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Extremely low-risk large time frame turning points:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of January 25th, 2021We didn’t point this out as our achievement but rather illustrating that Bitcoin is tradeable with high accuracy. It is a likely tradeable instrument. If you are new to this market instrument, we encourage you to educate yourself about its various aspects and possible benefits for your wealth preservation and wealth creation portfolio.We see bitcoin from these levels quickly rising to all-time highs and beyond.Bitcoin, a peaceful futureWe are not naive to realize there is a simplification underlying this hypothesis, but nevertheless, we find it compelling that such a way to peace is at least a possibility. We are confronted with a future from various aspects pointing towards a need to change in a shorter period than we are used to. Finances presenting such a huge element of our life, at least allowing for such a paradigm shift to transpire, is, in our humble opinion, an essentially needed first step and an encouraging thought for a better tomorrow. In other words, as Paul Tudor Jones stated: A Bet on Bitcoin Is a Bet on Human Ingenuity. And he is not alone in pointing towards a better future. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Stock Pick Update: Jan. 27 – Feb. 2, 2021

Stock Pick Update: Jan. 27 – Feb. 2, 2021

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 27.01.2021 14:13
Header: Which stocks could magnify S&P 500’s gains in case it rallies? Take a look at a part of our Stock Pick Update. We have included two Consumer Discretionary and one Energy stock this time.In the last five trading days (January 20 – January 26) the broad stock market has extended its long-term uptrend. The S&P 500 index reached new record high of 3,870.90 yesterday, as investors awaited big-tech quarterly earnings releases. The S&P 500 has gained 0.88% between January 20 open and January 26 close.In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have lost 4.22%. Stock picks were relatively much weaker than the broad stock market’s performance last week. Our long stock picks have lost 6.12% and short stock picks have resulted in a loss of 2.32%. The Energy sector has been the strongest in the previous month, but last week there have been significant declines in oil stocks. Hence that relatively big drawdown of our portfolio.There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.Our last week’s portfolio result:Long Picks (January 20 open – January 26 close % change): COP (-10.11%), PXD (-8.09%), C (-9.59%), SPGI (+0.42%), APD (-3.25%)Short Picks (January 20 open – January 26 close % change): WBA (+2.56%), MNST (-1.48%), SPG (+7.28%), EQR (+3.85%), TTWO (-0.62%)Average long result: -6.12%, average short result: -2.32%Total profit (average): -4.22%Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, January 27 – Tuesday, February 2 period.We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (January 27) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (February 2).We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:buys: 2 x Consumer Discretionary, 2 x Energy, 1 x Health Caresells: 2 x Industrials, 2 x Consumer Staples, 1 x MaterialsBuy CandidatesMCD McDonalds Corp. - Consumer DiscretionaryStock may break above two-month-long downward trend lineThe resistance level is at $217.50 and support level is at $207.50ORLY O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. – Consumer DiscretionaryPossible upward reversal following the recent correctionThe resistance level is at $465 – short-term upside profit target levelWMB Williams Cos., Inc. – EnergyStock trades within a consolidation following downward correction – uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $20.75 and resistance level is at $22.75Summing up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .Thank you.Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *DisclaimerAll essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Short Squeeze Mania - Stocks Swoon

Short Squeeze Mania - Stocks Swoon

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 27.01.2021 15:24
It's officially "stonk season" in the markets. The IPO market continues to baffle, and SPACs continue to pop-up like weeds in your front yard.Plus if you’ve seen GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC), and Blackberry (BB) lately, you know the Robinhooders are at it again.These speculative gambles are ridiculously frothy right now as hedge funds and institutions continue to try and cover their shorts. The moves these stocks are making are more detached from reality than the guy in a buffalo headdress at the Capitol 3 weeks ago.Complacency is the most significant near-term risk to stocks by far, and I have been warning about this for weeks. It also reminds me of the Q4 2018 pullback ( read my story here ).It’s also earnings season (for those who care, like analysts), and it’s time for some big swings and volatility.Well, not entirely. Monday (Jan. 25) saw a sudden mid-day plummet and subsequent recovery, and Tuesday (Jan. 26) traded slightly down. Wednesday (Jan. 27) looks set to open lower - we will see how that ends up.Earnings have so far impressed, though, and there were some big moves from individual stocks.General Electric (GE) popped over 9% thanks to a healthy outlook for 2021 and better than expected industrial free cash flow.Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also saw a nice 3% gain after beating earnings. Investors are also eagerly anticipating results from its vaccine’s trial. Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine is one dose and does not require any crazy storage protocols like Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna’s (MRNA). Strong results and FDA approval could genuinely change the tide of the pandemic and vaccine rollout.Earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also came in after the closing bell and impressed as well. Microsoft posted record quarterly sales, and AMD exceeded $3 billion in revenue.Does this mean we're all clear now and can party like it's 1999?Not exactly. Plus, if you're a stock nerd like I am, you don't want to party like it's 1999. Because that means 2000 will come—the end of one of the biggest parties, investors have ever seen. I'm talking about the dot-com bust.Fair warning: the S&P 500 is still at or near its most-expensive level in recent history on most measures, and the Russell 2000 has never traded this high above its 200-day moving average.The more GameStop pops, the more of a circus I think this market is. GameStop a $15+ billion company? Really? A correction at some point in the short-term would not be shocking in the least.John Studzinski , vice chairman of Pimco, believes that market valuations are sound and reflect expectations of this eventual reopening and economic recovery by the second half of the year.I agree on some level about the second half of the year. Outside of complacency, though, I have other short-term concerns.For one, trillions in imminent stimulus could be useful for stocks but bring back inflation by mid-year. The worst part about it? The Fed will likely let it run hot. With debt rising and consumer spending expected to increase as vaccines are rolled out to the masses, the Fed is undoubtedly more likely to let inflation rise than letting interest rates rise.All of this tells me that the market remains a pay-per-view fight between good news and bad news.We may trade sideways this quarter- that would not shock me in the least. But I think we are long overdue for a correction since we haven't seen one since last March.Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.In a report released last Tuesday (Jan. 19), Goldman Sachs shared the same sentiments.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth. Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening, and I welcome your thoughts and questions.We have a critical week ahead with the Fed set to have its first monetary policy meeting of 2021 and more earnings announcements. I wish you the best of luck. We'll check back in with you at the end of the week. Small-caps are Too Hot to HandleFigure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)As tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , small-cap stocks underperformed the larger indices on Tuesday (January 26). The RSI is no longer technically overbought, but I still think that the Russell has overheated in the short-term. Stocks don’t just go up in a straight line without experiencing a sharp pullback. That’s just the nature of the beast.Barron’s also claims that the Russell 2000/S&P 500 ratio has entered a powerful 15-year resistance area .Nobody knows what will happen during this critical week of earnings, but I called a decline after the IWM began the week over a 70 RSI. Indeed the IWM is having a down week to this point, but it’s not sharply down enough for me to switch my call. Not even close.I love small-cap stocks in the long-term, especially as the world reopens. Small-caps are also the most likely to benefit from Biden’s aggressive stimulus plan.But the index has overheated. Period.Before January 4, the RSI for the IWM Russell 2000 ETF was at a scorching hot 74.54. I called a sell-off happening in the short-term due to this RSI, and it happened.After the RSI hit another overbought level of approximately 77 two Wednesdays ago (January 13), the IWM declined by another 1.5%. I said that Russell stocks would imminently cool down because the RSI was too hot, and precisely that’s what happened.Consider this too. In its entire history as an index, the Russell has never traded this high above its 200-day moving average.Small-caps may have priced in vaccine-related gains by now, and some stimulus optimism may have been priced in too.I hope small-caps decline before jumping back in for long-term buying opportunities. I love where these stocks could end up by the end of the year.SELL and take profits if you can- but do not fully exit positions . If there is a deeper pullback, this is a STRONG BUY for the long-term recovery.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
How the Eurozone Affects Gold, and Why You Should Care

How the Eurozone Affects Gold, and Why You Should Care

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 27.01.2021 16:14
In our globalized economy, currency pairs have a negative correlation with gold, so how does the current EUR/USD situation impact the yellow metal?It pays to pay attention to what is happening in Europe. As is well known, there are many currency pairs in the world, but the most traded one is the EUR/USD. How does that affect you as a gold investor? The equation goes something like this: if the economy of the Eurozone sinks and takes the EUR down with it, the USD rises – and vice-versa. Gold, which is usually inversely related to the dollar, will also either rise or decline based on the latter’s behavior.Before we get to Europe though, let’s take a look at what gold is currently doing.Once again, yesterday’s (Jan. 26) session was relatively uneventful on the technical front, but that doesn’t mean that the outlook is any more bullish.Conversely, it remains bearish because of multiple developments that happened before the current pause. For instance, the invalidation of gold’s breakout above its 2011 high. Even though it had help from a sliding USD Index, the yellow metal still failed to hold above this critical support level.It seems that the only thing that made gold rally in the recent past was the U.S. inauguration-based uncertainty. As it fades away, gold is losing its gleam. In fact, the previous relative weakness seems to have already returned.Figure 1 – USD Index futures (DX.F)Taking the previous two days into account (precisely: yesterday and today’s pre-market trading), we see that the USD Index declined. In such a situation, gold should have rallied or at least paused, but what did it do?Figure 2 - COMEX Gold Futures (GC.F)Gold declined. This means that gold’s weakness relative to the USDX is back.Looking at the above chart, I marked the November consolidation with a blue rectangle, and I copied it to the current situation, based on the end of the huge daily downswing. Gold moved briefly below it in recent days, after which it rallied back up, and right now it’s very close to the upper right corner of the rectangle.This means that the current situation remains very similar to what we saw back in November, right before another slide started – and this second slide was bigger than the first one. Consequently, there’s a good reason for gold to reverse any day (or hour) now.Let’s get back to the USD Index for a minute.I think that the USD Index is likely to rally in the following weeks, but as far as the next several days are concerned, the situation is relatively unclear.The USD Index finds itself after the breakout above the declining medium-term resistance line, but it’s also after a breakdown below the rising short-term support line. Consequently, it’s very short-term outlook is relatively unclear. In all cases, I don’t see it moving visibly below the previous 2021 low.And since the situation is unclear with regard to the short-term in case of the USDX, it would be natural for gold to hesitate. Since it’s already declining, it seems that even if the USDX tested its previous 2021 low, gold would not rally far.Figure 3 - COMEX Silver Futures (SI.F)Similarly to gold, silver is not doing much. The white metal is moving back and forth after the big January slide and it seems to be preparing for another move lower.Let’s keep in mind that silver has a triangle-vertex-based reversal in late February – close to Feb. 23. Based on what we’ve seen so far, it seems quite likely that it will be a major bottom (not likely the final one for this slide, though).Figure 4 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Miners didn’t do much yesterday either, so my previous comments on them remain up-to-date. To explain the pattern, I wrote on Jan. 11 :If you analyze the chart above, the area on the left (marked S) represents the first shoulder, while the area in the middle (H) represents the head and the area on the right (second S) represents the potential second shoulder.Right now, $33.7-$34 is the do-or-die area. If the GDX breaks below this (where the right shoulder forms) it could trigger a decline back to the $24 to $23 range (measured by the spread between the head and the neckline; marked with green).And after analyzing Thursday’s (Jan. 21) price action, I wrote the following (on Jan. 22):As far as the miners are concerned, mining stocks didn’t correct half of their 2021 decline. They didn’t invalidate the breakdown below the rising support line, either. In fact, the GDX ETF closed yesterday’s session below the 50-day moving average. Technically, nothing changed.Regarding the GDX ETF’s current consolidation pattern (November to present), it mirrors what we saw between April and June of last year (the shaded green rectangles above).I added:Both shoulders of the head-and-shoulder formation can be identical, but they don’t have to be , so it’s not that the current consolidation has to end at the right border of the current rectangle. However, the fact that the price is already close to this right border tells us that it would be very normal for the consolidation to end any day now – most likely before the end of January.If we see a rally to $37, or even $38, it won’t change much – the outlook will remain intact anyway, and the right shoulder of the potential head-and-shoulders formation will remain similar to the left shoulder.But with many paths to get there, is hitting $37 or $38 a prerequisite to the eventual decline? Absolutely not. The GDX ETF could reverse right away and catch many market participants flat-footed.Remember, it’s important to keep last week’s rally in context. Despite the Yellen-driven bounce, the GDX ETF is still down considerably from its January highs.Having said that, let’s take a look at the market from a more fundamental angle.The Widening Economic DivergenceFor weeks, I’ve been highlighting the economic malaise confronting the Eurozone. And like a fork in the road, the U.S. and Europe continue to head in opposite directions. More importantly though, the fundamental fate of the two regions, and the subsequent performance of the EUR/USD, will go a long way in determining the precious metals’ destiny.Figure 5If you analyze the chart above, you can see that gold and silver tend to track the performance of the EUR/USD. And while gold bucked the trend on Tuesday (Jan. 26), silver still remains a loyal follower. Thus, as the European economy sinks further into quicksand, its relative underperformance is likely to pressure the EUR/USD and usher the PMs lower.On Friday (Jan. 22), the IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 47.5 in January (down from 49.1 in December), with services falling to 45.0 (from 46.4) and manufacturing falling to 54.7 (from 55.2).Please see below:Figure 6To explain, PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) data is compiled through a monthly survey of executives at more than 400 companies. A PMI above 50 indicates business conditions are expanding, while a PMI below 50 indicates that business conditions are contracting (the scale on the left side of the chart).In contrast to the Eurozone, the U.S. Composite PMI rose to 58 in January (up from 55.3 in December), with services rising to 57.5 (up from 54.8) and manufacturing rising to 59.1 (up from 57.1).Figure 7In addition, after European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde revealed (on Jan. 21) that the Eurozone economy likely shrank in the fourth-quarter (all but sealing a double-dip recession), Germany (the Eurozone’s largest economy) cut its 2021 GDP growth forecast from 4.4% to 3.0%.And not looking any better, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook Report – which covers IMF economists' analysis over the short and medium-term – has the U.S. economy expanding by 5.1% in 2021 versus only 4.2% for the Eurozone. More importantly though, the Eurozone economy is expected to contract by 7.2% in 2020 versus 3.4% for the U.S. As a result, Europe has to dig itself out of a much larger hole.Please see below:Figure 8Also noteworthy, the IMF downgraded its GDP growth forecast for Canada. And because the USD/CAD accounts for more than 9% of the movement in the USD Index (though still well below the nearly 58% derived from the EUR/USD) it’s an important variable to monitor.Continuing the theme of Eurozone underperformance, U.S. consumer confidence (released on Jan. 26) rose from 87.1 in December (revised) to 89.3 in January (the red box below).Figure 9 - Source: Bloomberg/ Daniel LacalleIn contrast, Eurozone consumer confidence (released on Jan. 21) retreated in January. And while both regions’ readings are still well below pre-pandemic levels, currencies trade on a relative basis. As a result, the relative underperformance of the Eurozone is bearish for the EUR/USD.Figure 10If that wasn’t enough, the ECB essentially admitted it wants a weaker euro. On Tuesday (Jan. 26), reports surfaced that the ECB will investigate the causes of the euro’s appreciation relative to the greenback. Translation? The central bank is studying ways to devalue the currency.Adding more fuel to the fire, the yield differential between the U.S. and Europe foretells a higher USD Index. Dating back to 2003, after the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield troughed and began rising, the USD Index (except for 2008-2009) always followed suit.Please see below:Figure 11 - Source: Daniel LacalleIn contrast, if you analyze the area at the bottom, you can see that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has bounced by 57 basis points from its August low. But moving in the opposite direction, the USD Index is lower now than it was it August.Furthermore, notice the large divergence that’s occurred since the beginning of December?Figure 12The abnormal behavior above highlights the power of sentiment. Because U.S. investors ‘want’ a lower USD Index, they’re willing to overlook technicals, fundamentals, historical precedent and essentially, reality. However, if the dynamic reverses, the USD Index is ripe for a resurgence.Circling back to the euro, the currency is already starting to crack. On Monday (Jan. 25), I wrote that Janet Yellen’s pledge to “act big” on the next coronavirus relief package ushered the EUR/GBP back above critical support.However, on Tuesday (Jan. 26), the key level broke again.Please see below:Figure 13More importantly though, a break in the EUR/GBP could be an early warning sign of a forthcoming break in the EUR/USD.Figure 14If you analyze the chart above, ~20 years of history shows that the EUR/GBP and the EUR/USD tend to follow in each other’s footsteps. As a result, if the EUR/GBP retests its April low (the next support level), the EUR/USD is likely to tag along for the ride (which implies a move back to ~1.08).Figure 15And like a falling string of dominoes, if the EUR/USD retests ~1.08, the PMs should come under significant pressure.Figure 16If you analyze the chart above, you can see that over the last ~20 years, gold and silver tend to live and die with the EUR/USD. Naturally, there are also other factors, but the point is that the performance of this currency pair shouldn’t be ignored. As a result, a euro collapse (or at least a significant decline in it) could deliver plenty of fireworks. Conversely, once order is restored and weak Eurozone fundamentals are accurately priced into the EUR/USD, the precious metals will present us with an attractive buying opportunity.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Stock Market Rolls Lower After 18% Rally Since November 2020

US Stock Market Rolls Lower After 18% Rally Since November 2020

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 28.01.2021 03:23
Price action is usually conducted in a series of up and down price phases – or waves/cycles.  Typically, price will move higher or lower in phases- attempting to trend upward or downward over time. This type of price action is normal.  Extended upward trends with very little downward price retracements happen sometimes – but not often.  They usually happen in “excess phase” rallies or after some type of news event changes expectations for a symbol/sector.Putting Concerns Into Perspective – Still BullishSince early November 2020, the US stock market has continued to rally in a mode that is similar to an excess phase rally – showing very little signs of moderate price rotation. While price volatility has continued to stay higher than normal, you can see from the SPY Daily chart below that it has rallied from $324.40 to $385.95 (over 18%) in just under 90 days.  At some point in the future, a moderate price rotation/retracement will happen that may be in excess of 6% to 11% - as has happened in the past.The purpose of this research post is to alert readers that the markets appear to have started a period of downside price rotation – which is normal. This SPY Daily chart, above, highlights the upward support channel originating from the March 21, 2020, COVID-19 lows (CYAN line) and also the upward support channel originating from the early November 2020 lows (YELLOW line). It is important to understand that any downside price retracement which stays above the CYAN line level should be considered a normal range price rotation within a bullish trend.  This suggests a -3% to -4% downside price trend from current levels would simply qualify as downward price rotation within a bullish trend – nothing more.If price were to break below the CYAN upward trending support channel, then we would become more concerned that a deeper price downtrend is setting up which may target lows from Mid-November 2020 (-6.5%) or the late October 2020 lows (-13% to -14%) from current SPY price levels.  Obviously, a deeper downside trend targeting the October 2020 lows would suggest the US stock markets are potentially entering a new phase of trending – possibly a sideways consolidation trend.TRAN Testing Support Near 12,180The following Transportation Index daily chart shows a very clear picture of how this “rollover” in the markets has setup and where real support is likely to be found.  The early January lows, near 12,180 are the most likely immediate support level on the TRAN Daily chart, below.  If the US stock market attempts to find immediate support to sustain the current bullish rally trend, then this level in the TRAN will likely hold up well over the next few days/weeks. Otherwise, if the TRAN breaks below this level, then the next viable downside target become the November 2020 lows (or somewhere close to those levels).Be sure to sign up for my FREE webinar that will teach you how to find and trade my BEST ASSET NOW strategy on your own!Using Fibonacci Retracement Theory from the early November 2020 lows to recent highs, we achieve the following levels:25% retracement: 12,628.9238.2% retracement: 12,331.4450% retracement: 12,065.4761.8% retracement: 11,799.51The 12,180 level we are suggesting will turn into critical support is just above the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.  Therefore, any further downside trending would be predicated by a breach of both the 12,180 level and the 12,065.47 level.  If price holds above either of these support levels confidently, we would consider further downside risks unlikely.VIX Spike Higher BeginsThe upward spike in the VIX recently is indicative of how volatile the markets have become after nearly 90 days of continued upward trending.  Whenever the US stock market enters a decidedly bullish price trend for an extended period of time, the VIX naturally “normalizes” into a lower boundary and becomes hypersensitive to moderate price rotations.  We've seen this happen many times in the past.Because of the way the VIX is calculated, when these breakout moves happen while the market is conducting a relatively normal price rotation/correction, the VIX can sometimes spike above 35 or 45. To put this into perspective, the 2008-09 market crash prompted a VIX move to near 95.  The COVID-19 market crash prompted a VIX move to near 85. Many other moderate market downtrends over the past 10+ years prompted VIX moves above 30~40.  Three of the biggest “normal range” VIX moves happened in August 2011 (VIX level near 48),  August 2015 (VIX level near 53.50), and February 2018 (VIX level near 50).If another big market rotation were to take place in the near future, we believe early February would be the time/place for it to happen based on our predictive modeling system's expectations (see this research article: (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/what-to-expect-in-2021-part-ii-gold-silver-and-spy/).  We also believe this downside price swing will end fairly quickly and that a continued bullish price trend will resume in March or April 2021.The potential for a broader market rotation and trend “reset” is aligning with our December 2020 predictions for 2021.  Quite possibly, the downside price trending we are seeing now is the start of a 15 to 25+ day market rotation which will likely “reset” the bullish trending bias and allow for broader market trends to continue higher. We consider this an opportunity for traders to take advantage of this rotation in major markets and sectors.2021 is going to be full of these types of trends and setups.  Quite literally, hundreds of these setups and trades will be generated over the next 3 to 6 months using the Best Assets Now strategy.  Are you ready for these big market rotations expected in 2021? You can trade my BAN ETF strategy with no proprietary indicator, scanners, or algorithms just by watching my FREE webinar. Not only will it show you a strategy you can implement tomorrow, but you will also receive over $100 worth of free goodies designed to make you an even better trader… no strings attached. Go ahead and watch the webinar now – click here to start. If you want to improve your own trading strategy and win-rate without doing the research yourself, then you need to subscribe to BAN Trader Pro newsletter service to get my daily BAN Hotlist, my pre-market video walkthrough of the charts every morning, and my BAN strategy trade alerts.Happy Trading!
GBPUSD Trades Mixed As It Fails To Post New Highs

GBPUSD Trades Mixed As It Fails To Post New Highs

John Benjamin John Benjamin 28.01.2021 08:15
Markets trade mixed on FOMC dayEuro Briefly Slips To 1.2050 Technical SupportThe euro currency, along with many of its peers was trading mixed on Wednesday. This comes as the dollar briefly strengthened into the run-up to the Fed meeting.Price action lost the support off the minor trend line and briefly fell close to the 1.2050 technical support.However, price action was quickly rejected just above the 1.2050 level. The euro managed to recover the losses rather quickly.The downside bias is likely to rise as the currency pair has failed to make any moves above the resistance area of 1.2177 – 1.2144 level.However, considering that the Stochastics oscillator is likely to trigger a bullish signal, we could see another attempt to the upside.The British pound sterling gave back some of the gains from Tuesday on an intraday basis on Wednesday.Price action once again attempted to post new highs but failed to build up the momentum.The consolidation near the 1.3700 level has resulted in a possible ascending wedge pattern.If price action breaks lower, we could see a retest back to the 1.3050 level in the near term.To the upside, GBPUSD will need to post strong gains to close firmly above the 1.3700 level of resistance.WTI Crude Oil Bounces Off Lower Support Of RangeOil prices remain flat for yet another day. Price action briefly fell to the floor near 51.87 from the sideways range.But prices quickly recovered off this level intraday. For the moment, the sideways range remains intact and oil prices could settle in this range for a while longer.The upside level near 53.77 remains untested yet in the recent few sessions.The Stochastics oscillator has also turned flat currently underlining the sideways movement in the oil markets.Gold Loses The 1850 Support LevelThe precious metal was trading below the 1850 level just ahead of the Fed meeting. However, the declines coincide with the Stochastics oscillator also moving close to the oversold levels.As a result, we could see price attempting to breakout above the 1850 level once again.Above this level, gold prices will challenge the 21 Jan highs near 1874.05.Only a strong close above this level could trigger further gains.To the downside, the support level near 1817.79 remains in play and could put a lid on further declines.
S&P 500 and Gold Bulls, Get Ready to Meet the Bears

S&P 500 and Gold Bulls, Get Ready to Meet the Bears

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.01.2021 09:08
Yesterday‘s recovery ended on a weak note as stock bulls gave up the opening gap. Disappointing in the very short run, especially given that other key markets acted likewise weak. Neither corporate bonds, nor gold, nor oil could get their act together, and are hanging in the balance. Inviting the bears to probe the defences, how far south will they be able to get? We have the Fed meeting later today, and while I am not looking for hawkish surprises or any outright optimism, the investors aren‘t taking chances. Sell now, ask questions later seem to be the mantra before the U.S. open. While Monday‘s hanging man candlestick predictably didn‘t bring follow through selling on Tuesday, I am looking for the bulls to get tested today. Once the dust clears, we can go on making new highs, but the short-term storm (storm in a teacup, more precisely) hasn‘t started yet. In today‘s article, I‘ll examine the S&P 500 standing, look into precious metals, and finally answer a pointed question about gold. Let‘s start (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook Stocks are hanging in the short-term balance following yesterday‘s weak close. Unconvincing volume, inviting a premarket push to the low 3800s as we speak. The aftermath of the Fed will set the tone for the coming sessions, but I would look for early credit market clues before buying any dip. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) had a weak day yesterday, missing the opportunity to rise. Quite to the contrary, they traded relatively weaker than the S&P 500 did. Any time corporate bonds start underperforming stocks, I am watching closely, and often from the sidelines. Investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) closed about unchanged while Treasuries paused and didn‘t really advance compared to Monday. They appear waiting for the Fed, unwilling to move before discounting possible hawkish surprise (positive assessment of the economy would do that trick) as a false alarm. The ratio of high yield corporate bonds against short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) with the S&P 500 overlaid (black line) shows the very short-term vulnerability in stocks. How low will these go as the greed sentiment gets taken down a notch? You see, yesterday I did strike an optimistic tone in the runup to the regular session‘s open, but the bulls missed a good opportunity to act, and the resultant signals favor the bears to step in now. That‘s the essence of my trading style – neither a permabull, nor a permabear, and always ready to turn on a dime should the facts change. The market breadth indicators show we‘re on the doorstep of a push lower. Instead of holding ground, new high new lows solidly declined, while both the advance decline line and advance decline volume muddled through. That‘s not exactly a bullish constellation. Precious Metals in Focus Gold also appears to be acting a bit weak in the short run. No surprise as I don‘t see the lengthy consolidation as quite over yet. This one will more likely wear you out than scare you out. Simply put, the gold bulls better wait for spring to usher in another precious metals upleg as the miners to gold ($HUI:$GOLD) ratio isn‘t sending any kind of confirmation that the sector has made a turn. The gold to silver ratio keeps treading water, and isn‘t declining below its early September lows. On the other hand, it‘s not trading too far from them either, which translates into silver not acting at its weakest exactly. That‘s a bullish sign, showing that this 5-month long consolidation is really getting long in the tooth. Completing the picture, miners (GDX ETF) reveal lackluster short-term performance. Long upper knot and volume as low as could have been, mean that we better brace ourselves for a down session today. From the Readers‘ Mailbag Q: Hi Monica, congratulations and best wishes on your new venture and I look forward to following your work. I'm an English working class boy, now very Grey who follows the gold market like a hawk. I'm a longterm investor in PM's sector and I have a largish position in PM miners (still in profit on most) but the last six month are playing havoc with my nerves. The best metaphor I have that describes my current situation is that I have a large bowl of golden soup with a big fly swimming in it and its name is Mr Radomski. His latest missive of 25 Jan outlines "where to now Gold" with a possible/probable decline of gold to between $1500 - $1600. I was rather hoping you might comment on his analysis and on how you see things developing over the coming months. I appreciate that you don't give financial advice but his very bearish view is discomforting given the mad world we have around us and if Gold could crash to these levels in the current situation it begs the question why bother investing in PM's. A: Thank you for the question and for authorizing me to print it just the way it arrived. I‘ll answer solely from my personal perspective, and won‘t comment on personalities. I understand your frustration with gold being unable to really move, but as I tweeted already yesterday, this months-long correction is one to wear you out, not to scare you out. Please check my Aug 07 article written for Sunshine Profits called S&P 500 Bulls Meet Non-Farm Payrolls, where in the section Calling out gold, I discuss the yellow metal‘s prospects. Compare that with my Monday‘s article Rosy February for S&P 500? Not So Fast to see how things turned out in the sector precisely. It‘s with the same conviction that I say today again that this long consolidation in gold is in its latter stages. For now, gold is still rangebound, and I don‘t see a deflationary crash repeating that would bring it to said $1,500 - $1,600 levels. Definitely not. Looking at the real world around us, the Fed is becoming more active in expanding its balance sheet, new stimulus checks are coming (money flowing directly into the real economy, not sitting on commercial banks‘ balance sheets), and fiscal policy isn‘t tame exactly either. Inflation is making a steady return, and it‘s a question of time (think months) before it becomes broadly acknowledged. In such an environment, a gold drop would be bought with both hands, thank you very much. Copper is rising, base metals aren‘t doing badly, and food price inflation is hot. We‘ve entered a decade of commodities, which would outperform paper assets. Who could tell me why gold would crash, even temporarily? What kind of mayhem in the bond markets would have to trigger that? Make no mistake, no single market moves in a vacuum. Quite to the contrary, I look at gold and Bitcoin as the safe haven plays, with Bitcoin being the wild and volatile one. I am saying that Bitcoin has clearly decoupled, and once gold does the same, it means a vote of no confidence in the financial system. But this is not where we are currently. Gold is taking its cues from interest rates, real ones to be precise. The king of metals is also doing well during times of rising inflation. Take the Fed keeping rates as low as can be for as long as eye can see (practical view of things), rising inflation bringing down opportunity costs of holding precious metals, and you have a great driver of higher gold prices. Given the economic policy steps, how likely is a deflationary shock now? Instead, look for the newly created money to keep entering the real economy, battling the high savings rate. Once you see the velocity of money to pick up, that would be the cherry on the cake. Gold unbound next. For now though, arm yourself with patience, and don‘t let any gloomy forecasts not matching your real world experience of what‘s truly going on in this Brave New World, drive you to abandon your prior decision. Have the facts, the rationale changed? Constantly evaluate these, honestly and truthfully without getting scared. No, the answer is that the drivers are still in place, and will be gaining an upper hand increasingly more over time. I see gold as breaking higher from this lengthy consolidation in spring, and as I‘ve explained in Monday‘s article, miners are set to outperform the metal early in this move when it comes, because they‘ve been beaten down quite sufficiently already. Look also at the gold to silver ratio. Spikes in favor of gold are what I would look for in the next monetary crisis, or liquidity crunch. Currently, none is on the horizon. Summary Time has come for another daily downswing in stocks, and it remains to be seen whether it entices the buyers to act. Technology, communications and consumer staples were among the best performing sectors yesterday, which doesn‘t paint a picture of broad short-term strength. Repeating the final sentence of yesterday‘s summary, the nearest days may (see today‘s session for proof) bring another push lower that won‘t however jeopardize the bull market in the least.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Powell: Inflation Can Rise In 2021 – So What Happens to Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.01.2021 16:51
The first FOMC meeting in 2021 has concluded without any changes in monetary policy, while Powell sent a few dovish signals during his press conference.The FOMC released on Wednesday (January 27) its newest statement on monetary policy . Generally speaking, the statement was little changed. The main alteration is that the U.S. central bank has acknowledged that “the pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months”. Wow, how did they notice that? They really must hire professionals! All jokes aside, this modification in the FOMC statement is dovish . Consequently, when analyzed separately, it’s positive for the price of gold.Another change is that the FOMC now believes that “the ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook”. In December, the Fed thought that the pandemic would impact inflation only in the “near term”, with risks to the outlook “over the medium term”.However, when considered holistically, the January statement is rather bad for the yellow metal , as the Committee neither changed the federal funds rate nor expanded its quantitative easing program . So we have another month without any additional easing of the U.S. monetary policy. Luckily, the ECB also didn’t loosen its stance, but still, the lack of any fresh dovish moves by the Fed is not helpful for gold.Luckily, Powell comes to the rescue! Although he generally sounded rather neutral during his press conference , the Fed Chair has sent a few important dovish signals. First, he clearly excluded the possibility of premature tapering and the replay of 2013’s taper tantrum , saying that “the whole focus on exit is premature if I may say. We’re focused on finishing the job we’re doing, which is supporting the economy, giving the economy the support it needs.” The continuation of the quantitative easing, which will take years, is positive for gold.Second, Powell acknowledged that inflation will increase in 2021, admitting that the Fed will not react to this rise, as it would be only transitory: “We’re going to be patient. Expect us to wait and see and not react if we see small, and what we would view as very likely to be transient, effects on inflation”. This is great news for gold, which is considered by many investors as an inflation hedge . Higher inflation, with the central bank behind the curve, also implies lower real interest rates , which will support gold prices.Implications for GoldWhat does the recent FOMC meeting imply for the gold market? Well, so far, it has reacted little to the Fed’s statement on monetary policy. The reason is simple: the lack of any moves was widely expected, so the markets got no surprises and reacted weakly.However, the easing of the monetary policy could provide a fresh bullish signal that gold seems to need right now. Without such a spark, gold may continue its bearish trend for a while (see the chart below). And, although the markets did not expect any significant announcements from the Fed, some analysts speculated that the U.S. central bank could provide some guidance about the yield curve control. But it didn’t – so further declines wouldn’t be surprising in the short-term.Some analysts even say that the gold’s price pattern of 2020-2021 resembles the period of 2011-2012. If true, it would be a terrible news for the gold bulls. However, history never repeats itself, but only rhymes. The current fundamental outlook is different. Why? Well, this time, in addition to quantitative easing and ZIRP , we also have a very easy fiscal policy with ballooning federal debt and new large fiscal deficits in the pipeline.Another difference is the Fed’s stance. Right now the U.S. central bank openly admits that there is a possibility of upward pressure on inflation , but ask the markets to “expect us to wait and see and not react” (emphasis added). Well, the rise in inflation may be indeed only transitory – but, hey, didn’t they say the same before the 1970s stagflation ?If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
A million reasons to buy Silver

A million reasons to buy Silver

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.01.2021 10:05
Silver, Weekly Chart, Multiyear range break, significant trend, range, and?Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of January 28th, 2021.We are at such a significant point in history where fundamentals are more important for long term wealth preservation prediction than usual. Here is why:U.S. debt is at US$27 trillion.With the transition of the current presidency and the need to print enormous amounts of money to fund national vaccinations, future monetary expansion is inevitable.Silver is the only deflationary asset that’s left that has lost value since the 1980s. While some investors might think this is a good reason not to buy Silver, a contrarian or counter-intuitive approach would find an opportunity in something so undervalued.The greater the amount of currency in circulation, the greater the potential money flow they can trail into precious metals. When the economy collapses and cashflow comes flowing out of the stock market, it will find its way back into precious metals, and prices will rise.  Gold/Silver Ratio, Monthly Chart, Still room to catch up:Gold-Silver Ratio, monthly chart as of January 28th, 2021.But this isn’t all. As of December 11, 2020, Silver’s one-year price change is up 41.94%, and gold’s one-year price change is up 24.75%. Looking at the monthly Gold/Silver-Ratio chart above, we can see that there is still plenty of room for Silver to catch up. We even have support here right now, which would point out that gold runs first again, and then Silver is under pressure to follow.Monthly Chart of Silver, Forecast:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 28th, 2021.Silver is looking very bullish by not having retraced deep in its sideways range since March of last year (27.5%). Therefore, we find it sensible to look at fundamentals more closely when it comes to larger timeframe target projections. Metal prices are strongly correlated with the economic meltdown. Hence, if the banks are too big to fail and keep forestalling inevitable problems into the future by ongoing money printing, we can continue to see prices remain less than stellar. Only when fear strikes the masses will the money leave the stock market and ultimately find itself into precious metals. Is COVID-19, the pandemic, that catalyst?A million reasons to buy Silver:The disparity between economic conditions in corporate earnings will not post well for equities forever. Investors are building up alternative hedges. We have seen massive profits in Bitcoin. If “exotics” get attention like this, a more radical shift in common alternatives like Silver might be ahead.JP Morgan has decreased their short positions after years of accumulating Silver. It leads one to believe that with rumors of J.P. Morgan’s massive silver accumulation, it’s relinquishing recent silver short positions. It could portend a future where silver prices can no longer be manipulated as they once were, as the main manipulator has decided to cash in.With history changing so fast and a million reasons for owning Silver, it is wise to look at markets from both sides. A fundamental and a technical one. More than ever! Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Stocks Pop as “Stonks" Controversial

Stocks Pop as “Stonks" Controversial

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.01.2021 15:44
In two weeks, Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes will battle in the Super Bowl as the old guard vs. the new era. What's happening in the market right now is no different.Think of Tom Brady as the hedge funds. As old Wall Street. As the suits. Think of Patrick Mahomes as the Reddit/Robinhood investor. The young renegade who could change the face of football or the stock market as we know it.What's happened so far in 2021 is more significant than "stonks." What's happened is deeper than GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) surging by an astounding 1914.55% and 890.05%, respectively, year-to-date, thanks to these small-time investors.We can make all the goofy stonk memes and laugh about how two has-been companies have suddenly become the new Bitcoin all we want.But what happened is the potential changing of the guard of who the market-makers are.I've been talking about a tug of war between good news and bad news and overvalued stocks (and "stonks") for weeks. But we have a new tug of war between the suits at Wall Street hedge funds and Reddit/Robinhood traders. The parallels between Brady vs. Mahomes are palpable.The suits, aka the Tom Bradys, have been controlling the market for decades, manipulating it at their will.But recently, a Reddit group called "WallStreetBets," i.e., the Patrick Mahomes traders, caught on to their game. This group made a joke about how poor GameStop's prospects were and how hilarious it was that hedge funds were shorting it en masse. So they banded together, bought enough shares of the stock to send it soaring, then forced the hedge funds to cover their shorts by buying it up some more!WallStreetBets succeeded so much that they ended up closing a hedge fund’s entire GameStop position !Mahomes beat Brady in a blowout.Granted, what happened on Thursday (Jan. 28) when Robinhood and other trading platforms halted all trading of GME, AMC, and other "stonks" of the like is disturbing. People are complaining about censorship on social media, and this is no different. It's a war against the little guy.But what does this show you? The power is in your hands now.The suits are officially quaking in their fancy shoes and had to resort to drastic moves like this. These multi-billion dollar hedge funds probably called Robinhood in tears saying to stop the trades. Hedge-fund manager Leon Cooperman said as much when he appeared on CNBC Thursday with a sob story. It's quite similar to someone prominent who demanded to "stop the count" and "stop the steal" a few months ago.Don't let this deter you from chasing your goals.Now would I buy these stocks? No. It's not my style and not my philosophy. I think it's detached from reality and a dot-com bust all over again.GameStop, AMC, Blackberry (BB), and Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) had predictable crashes on Thursday (Jan. 28) (partially thanks to the brokerages). Complacency is the most significant near-term risk to stocks by far, and I have been warning about this for weeks. But I tip my hat to all those who profited.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, I still think we are long overdue for a correction since we haven't seen one since last March. The manic moves of the past week excite me but concern me greatly.Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions, and wish you the best of luck.We’re all in this together! The S&P 500 Recovered After a Needed Breather This Week Figure 1- S&P 500 Large Cap Index $SPXThe S&P briefly turned negative for 2021 after seeing its worst sell-off in nearly three months on Wednesday (Jan. 27). It saw a reliable recovery Thursday (Jan. 28) and is now up roughly 2.40% for the year.However, it’s down nearly 1.75% week-to-date. It’s a much needed cool-off period of the S&P, and I feel that there could be more dips to come. The S&P remains around the 3800-level and has not been moved by what has been a week full of quality earnings. Remember- when the market usually gets what it expects, it’s usually a reason to sell more than buy. While they are largely beating estimates, earnings are not beating them to the point of exciting investors.I also remain concerned about the S&P’s valuations. Although its RSI is not overbought and in hold territory, I’m still worried about the S&P’s forward P/E ratio, which is the highest it’s been since the dot-com bust.Ned Davis Research also noted that the trailing P/E ratio of the median U.S. stock has never been higher in history, and fewer than ⅓ of S&P 500 stocks are trading under the long-term average 15 P/E.What intrigues me about this index is that it seems to go on multiple day win streaks and lose streaks. After seeing a similar sell-off to what it saw on Wednesday (Jan. 27) three weeks ago, it went on a four-day win streak and broke past 3800. It went on a three-day losing streak this week before seeing its recovery Thursday (Jan. 28).I like this decline in the S&P, and if Friday’s (Jan. 29) futures hold-up, it could mean the S&P’s second losing week in three. I would like to see a more profound drop to around 3600 or below before making a BUY call for the long-term.There is a legitimate upside for the second half of 2021, but I would prefer to maximize it from a lower level. Discount shopping can be fun in the long-term.A short-term correction could inevitably occur by the end of Q1 2021, but for now, I am sticking with the S&P as a HOLD.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the S&P, the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Late Yesterday, I Called the S&P 500 Ambush As Likely Over

Late Yesterday, I Called the S&P 500 Ambush As Likely Over

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.01.2021 16:30
The downswing potential I warned about yesterday, came. Heavy selling continued as the Fed threw cold water in assessing the pace of the recovery, and didn‘t signal readiness to prop it up even more than it does currently. That‘s a disappointment even though nobody really discusses V-shaped recovery anymore. Its pace is uneven – one of the few things that were quite „equally distributed“ yesterday, were sectoral losses in the S&P 500. The investors jumped on the selling bandwagon, confirming my yesterday‘s reservations: (…) We have the Fed meeting later today, and while I am not looking for hawkish surprises or any outright optimism, the investors aren‘t taking chances. Sell now, ask questions later seem to be the mantra before the U.S. open. With volatility spiking to levels unseen since September and October 2020, the question on everyone‘s mind is whether this is the start of another corrective move, and how fast would stocks recover. Make no mistake about it, they will recover – the bull isn‘t over by a long shot, and as I‘ve written in my Monday‘s 2021 prognostications, this year will be still a good one for stocks. Let‘s assess the damage yesterday‘s selling has done, and look at the course ahead (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook The selling wave in the S&P 500 didn‘t stop with yesterday‘s Fed, and picked up steam instead. While the daily indicators flashed their sell signals, this doesn‘t rule out stabilization next, which would disappoint those calling for a (10% or similar) correction. The bull market is intact, and one tough Fed assessment of the situation on the ground, won‘t end it. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) held up much better than than stocks did, and investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated Treasuries haven‘t broken below their recent lows either. Unless they do, that‘s a good sign for stocks to get their act together, regadless of the weak price recovery attempts thus far. The ratio of high yield corporate bonds against short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) with the S&P 500 overlaid (black line) shows how far the very short-term vulnerability in stocks that I highlighted yesterday, had reached. While I did strike an optimistic tone in the runup to Tuesday‘s regular session open, the bulls missed a good opportunity to act, and the resultant signals favored the bears to step in on Wednesday, which they did. Changing the tone, that‘s the essence of my trading style – assessment of momentary outlook, and drawing conclusions accordingly. So, what about follow through selling and the reflexive rebound – which of the two would win the day? More S&P 500 Clues The Force index in S&P 500 plunged deeply into negative territory. Short-term damage has been done while Bollinger Bands (a measure of volatility) barely budged, and both moving averages‘ slope remains intact. As I have called publicly and verifiably outside of my website at the onset of today‘s Asian session that we‘re likely to witness partial recovery in today‘s regular session, it appears well underway. And little wonder, if you look at volatility ($VIX) to get a feel for how extraordinary yesterday‘s move was. The spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasuries shows that the game hasn‘t really changed. That has also made me vocal about not getting scared out by yesterday‘s slide in stocks. Where is the rally in Treasuries (TLT ETF)? The intraday performance would have been expected to be much better thanks to the gloomy Fed views. Yet it wasn‘t. While Treasuries may pause at these levels or even rise next, they don‘t look to me to exert momentary pressure on stocks in any way. Long upper knot, selling into temporary strength, that‘s all there was to a dollar rally? That‘s another clue that stocks have overreacted. Summary The anticipated downswing brought a bloodbatch across the board, and it indeed enticed the buyers to act – just as the odds favored. Gold held relatively well, and none of the other indicators were in place to declare the move to be the start of a real correction. My open long position is in the black! Again, see today‘s action for proof that the bull market wasn‘t endagered in the least... Trading position (short-term; futures; my take): the already initiated long positions (100% position size) with stop-loss at 3525 and initial upside target at 3900 are justified from the risk-reward perspective. Below, you‘ll find my time-tested approach to money management per trade. If you’re using e-mini S&P 500 futures, 1-point move in the S&P 500 amounts to $50. Multiply that with the difference between the entry and stop-loss, and better don’t risk more than 6% or maximum 8% of your trading account on this trade alone. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and the upcoming Gold Trading Signals. Thank you, Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.comk@monicakingsley.co * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Here’s What’s More Important than the Recent Reddit Mania

Here’s What’s More Important than the Recent Reddit Mania

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.01.2021 16:36
GameStop! Reddit! Silver manipulation (that’s been discussed for over two decades)! It’s exciting but pay attention to these more important factors.Is the above really the key thing that’s happening in the markets right now? No, it’s only the most interesting thing. I admit, what we’re seeing on the Internet right now is truly absorbing, but one should realize that it’s what used to happen multiple times in history. This time it’s simply more visible as the conversations and associated images are publicly available and widely distributed.In yesterday’s intraday Alert , I commented on the issue of the likely implications of these cumulative purchases on the precious metals market as a whole and what difference they are likely to make over the course of the following months and weeks – next to none.Well, there is one effect that I’m expecting to see. It’s the increased volatility during the following price declines – likely proportionate to what was so vigorously bought in the last few days.Figure 1 – GameStop Corporation (GME) - NYSEThe above GameStop chart shows a near-vertical rally, and it also shows the spike in volume. The purchasing power seems to have dried up and the price – as expected – fell. Those, who bought at $300, were already at a 33% loss as of yesterday’s close.The various forums (other forums joined in, it’s not just Reddit anymore) are filled with messages and images encouraging to “hold”. But sooner or later people will realize that without fresh buyers the price is going to fall, and one by one, they are likely to panic and sell – especially knowing that they won’t be “punished” by the “forum community” in any way, as it’s not known to the forum participants who is selling and when.The topic of silver manipulation , paper silver and paper gold really is older than 20 years, and it’s been mostly the same argument over all those years. The price managed to rally from below $5 to about $50 – if there was a massive long-term manipulation, then it wasn’t particularly effective. If it didn’t prevent silver from rallying so far, then why would it prevent silver from rallying from below $20 to $200? Anyway, this topic is too broad to be fully discussed, even in a lengthy Alert – the point that I want to make here is that nothing new happened in the silver market – it just got more spotlight.So, what’s more important and timelier than the above topics, even though it doesn’t get as much attention – and can herald a decline in the precious metals?Figure 2 – S&P 500 (ES.F)First, the almost-confirmed medium-term breakdown in stocks!On Wednesday, the S&P 500 futures moved visibly below the rising support line and closed below it for the first time. Despite yesterday’s strength, stocks were unable to rally back above it and so far, today, stocks are moving lower. If the S&P 500 futures close today below this line, the breakdown will be confirmed by both: three consecutive daily closes and a weekly close. This will be a bearish sign for the short term.If stocks slide further shortly, it will be particularly bearish for silver and mining stocks, which means that those who bought yesterday based on forum messages etc. would be likely to find themselves at a loss relatively soon. This, in turn, means that the decline could be quite volatile.Second, there is also another market that could ignite the powerful decline in the PMs and miners – the rallying USD Index.Figure 3 – USD Index (DX.F)Despite the intraday decline, the USDX is once again close to its 2021 highs.The USD Index is testing its previous 2020 highs, and it might (!) be forming the right shoulder of a short-term head-and-shoulders pattern. The key word here is “might”. If the USDX rallies above its previous highs (about ~91), this pattern will be invalidated and the short-term outlook for the USDX will be clearly bullish. This would also serve as a breakout above the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern (mid-Dec. low being the left shoulder, the early 2021 low being the head, and the recent low being the right shoulder), which would have even more bullish implications (with the price target above 92).Would this be enough for gold to decline to $1,700? It might not be enough, but it might be enough for the miners to move to my above-mentioned initial downside targets ($31 and $42.5 for GDX and GDXJ, respectively).So, the bearish storm seems to be brewing. How are the precious metals responding? Let’s take a look at gold.Figure 4 – COMEX Gold Futures (GC.F)Gold shrugged off yesterday’s “exciting news” coming from the internet’s forums. It rallied initially, almost touched its declining resistance line, and then reversed, thus erasing the previous gains. It’s now trading pretty much at the same levels where it was trading two days ago. The outlook remains bearish and yesterday’s reversal actually makes it even stronger.Figure 5 – COMEX Silver Futures (SI.F)Silver is visibly stronger than it was a few days ago, but if the precious metals sector is about to head lower (especially given the breakdown in stocks) this would be normal even without the entire “let’s buy silver” forum theme.And miners?Figure 6 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Miners invalidated the breakdown below the neck level of the head and shoulders pattern. Invalidations of these breakouts tend to be “buy” signals. BUT yesterday’s session has “ this time really was different” written all over it.Part of the purchase encouragements on forums were for mining stocks. While silver has indeed rallied yesterday (and so did AG, which was particularly promoted), the GDX ETF moved higher only somewhat. It still closed more or less at its mid-January low and it didn’t manage to erase Tuesday’s decline.Overall, I think that the proper context is the relative weakness of miners and not the direct implications of the technical invalidation.Moreover, please note that if the symmetry in terms of shape between both green boxes on the above chart is to be upheld, then it shouldn’t be surprising to see a quick volatile upswing that’s very short. In fact, since the volatility now is smaller than it was in late April 2020, what we saw yesterday might have already been the analogy to what had happened back then.All in all, the outlook for the precious metals market remains bearish for the following weeks, regardless of what the next few days will bring.Also… Do you remember about bitcoin? Some time ago, I wrote that the bitcoin situation made the overall situation in currencies similar to late 2017 / early 2018.Figure 7 - Bitcoin Vault (BTC.V)Just as we saw back then, bitcoin soared while the USD Index plunged. Then both markets reversed .Figure 8That was also the time when precious metals and miners (and stocks) topped.So, what’s new?We just saw another clear confirmation that this is the very final inning of the rally. You probably heard that in the final part of a bull market, everything that’s in it soars. If it’s a gold bull market, then even stocks that have “gold” in their name will likely rally even though they might have nothing to do with the precious metals market. People don’t care to check, and emotions are too high to bother checking what they are actually buying.Well, there’s a cryptocurrency that started as a joke, but then became a relatively big market.Dogecoin .The reason why I’m mentioning it is that dogecoin just soared…Figure 9And it had previously soared in this way in early 2018, a few weeks after bitcoin topped.This is exactly what one would expect to see at a market top, based on common sense (analogy to buying just about anything close to the top), but the fact that we already saw pretty much the same thing in bitcoin, dogecoin, and the USD Index at the top 3 years ago should be flashing a big red light even for the most bearish of USD bears and most bullish crypto bulls.Remember, early 2018 was also the moment when the stock market and PMs topped.The above indications are on top of myriads of other factors pointing to lower precious metals and mining stock prices – this is all much more important than forum posts – even very convincing ones.Please note that today’s volatility is somewhat expected - it’s Friday (options expire) and it’s also the final session of the month. Quite many people and entities might want to push prices and indices in their favor, so that options expire on their preferred side of their options’ strike prices. So, whatever happens today might easily be erased in early February.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Silver May Rally Above $39 On Range Breakout

Silver May Rally Above $39 On Range Breakout

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 29.01.2021 21:21
Nearly 6+ months ago, our research team highlighted a unique price range that appears to be repeating itself in Silver.  This price range consists of a $5.40 bullish or bearish price phase.  Using our 100% measured move techniques, we've seen silver move higher and lower by this range over the past 10+ months and, quite interestingly, the current sideways price range in Silver is almost exactly a $5.40 range. After a bit of research related to the explosive upside price move in June 2020, where Silver rallied from $17.75 to levels over $28.75 – an $11 Candle Body Range (nearly 2x the $5.40 range), our researcher team believes the next breakout move in Silver may be another 2x or 3x rally – ranging from an $11+ rally to a $16.50+ rally.  This suggests a potential upside price target in Silver near $39 to $45 if our research is correct.Potential Silver Blastoff Once Price Clears $30This Daily Silver Futures chart highlights the continued $5.40 range that has “bound” silver over the past 4+ months.  The peak in price, near $30 represents the high price level that would have to be breached if any breakout attempt is confirmed.  Initially, we expect to see the $28 (upper channel) level breached, then we need to see the $30 breached as the breakout move continues/confirms.The news that the Reddit group is targeting Silver, as one of the most heavily shorted markets on the planet, suggests we may see a very explosive move higher in the near future if enough pressure is put on the shorts to present a real short-squeeze.  The other interesting facet of this setup is that Silver has already initiated a bullish price phase while the global markets appear to be in a Depreciation phase.  My team and I have written about this in a previous research article entitled Long Term Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends For Metals – Part II.If our research is accurate and correct, the combination of the Reddit targeting, extreme short positions, longer-term Depreciation cycle phases and the current Bullish Silver price phase may prompt a very big and explosive breakout move once Silver prices clear $30.Reddit Focuses Attention On Silver – What Next?The interesting component to all of this is the renewed focus on extremely heavily shorted symbols because of the Reddit group.  Silver was trading near the middle of the $5.40 price range and price was stalling/declining price to the sudden shift by the Reddit group.  Maybe this renewed focus in the Silver short positions focused the broader market into the unique setup that has continued in Silver over the past 12+ months – a rallying market in a Depreciation phase with a very heavy short interest.  It has all the makings of a potentially very big upside break move.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Recently, if you've been following my research, I have been expecting a shorter-term downward price trend in Silver – with a longer-term outlook still Bullish.  After reaching the peak of the channel in late December 2020, I expected Silver to move a bit lower before building enough momentum to attempt a breakout move. Now that a renewed focus on Silver has taken over, there is a very real potential that a breakout above $28~$30 is in the works – possibly initiating a very explosive upside trend.The last explosive upside move in Silver, from June 2020 to August 2020, only about 90 days, prompted an $11.50 to $12.50 rally (about 2x the $5.40 range).  This next upside breakout trend may see a similar, or larger, scale of a price advance – targeting $39 to $45 (or higher).In short, any breakout above $28 to $30 may prompt a very big upside price advance.  Any failure of this breakout attempt will likely prompt a downside price move to levels near $24 to $25.50 (again).  This renewed attention into Silver, one of the most heavily shorted commodities on the planet, may prove to be an incredible opportunity for traders – possibly pushing miners and other precious metals much higher over time.As a reminder, this increased volatility and price range will create some opportunity for euphoric enthusiasm by many traders.  Please don't get caught up in all of the hype.  This may be a once in a blue-moon setup in precious metals because of the renewed focus on Silver.  It may also prompt a big pullback move after any rally attempt.  Play this smart – don't get caught up in the hype.2021 is going to be full of these types of trend rotations and new market setups.  Quite literally, hundreds of these setups and trades will be generated over the next 3 to 6 months using my BAN strategy.  You can learn how to find and trade the hottest sectors right now in my FREE one-hour BAN tutorial. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.Don't miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months. For those who believe in the power of relative strength, cycles and momentum then the BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you in determining what to buy, when to buy, and when to take profits. You will be kept fully informed of the market with my short pre-market report every morning along with the BAN Hotlist for those looking for more trades.Have a great weekend!
Risk off sentiment caps off a volatile week

Risk off sentiment caps off a volatile week

John Benjamin John Benjamin 01.02.2021 07:32
EURUSD Back Near 1.2144 Resistance AreaThe euro currency has now posted back-to-back gains for two consecutive sessions. As a result, price action is trading back near the technical resistance area of 1.2144.However, price action remained somewhat mixed as the buyer still remains to the upside. A strong reversal of the resistance area near 1.2144 could potentially confirm the downside.For the moment, we expect the EURUSD to consolidate between the 1.2144 and 1.2050 levels. Further gains can only be expected if the common currency can close strongly above the 1.2177 level.The stochastics oscillator continues to remain rather subdued and points to a possible drop towards the 1.2050 technical support.GBPUSD Consolidates Within The Ascending Wedge PatternThe British pound Sterling continues to trade rather mixed albeit near the recent highs. The consolidation has formed the ascending wedge pattern which could potentially signal a correction lower upon a bearish breakout.On Friday, the currency pair managed to pull back from the recent loss only to give back the gains towards the end of the week.The stochastics oscillator remains trading flat. This suggests the sideways price action in the GBPUSD currency pair.As long as no new highs are forming, the GBPUSD currency pair is likely to eventually post a correction towards the 1.3500 level.Crude Oil Closes Almost Flat For The Third Consecutive WeekConsolidation in the crude oil markets continues to stretch into the third week. Price action continues to trade nearly flat for three weekly sessions so far.As a result, price action is firmly entrenched within the sideways range between 53.77 and 51.87.The flat trading comes amid concerns of the vaccine rollout which could potentially delay the global economic recovery. Price action has been repeatedly testing the 51.87 level of support which has held up so far.However, a breakdown below this level could potentially see a short-term correction on the horizon.We continue to maintain that the downside target remains near the 49.00 handle for the moment.Gold Gives Back Gains After Testing 1874 ResistanceThe precious metal attempted to post modest gains on Friday as price action tested the 1874 level of resistance.However, prices gave back the gains rather quickly intraday to settle back near the 1850 handle. Failure to break out above the 1874 level of resistance could signal a possible move lower.However, price action remains flat within 1874 and 1818 levels for the moment. Given the current positioning of the stochastics oscillator, we might expect to see prices pulling over and possibly testing the 1818 level of support.But, on a weekly basis, we see price action trading within the range from the previous week. As a result, a breakout is likely to occur in the medium term.
Has the “Stock Market Bubble” Started to Pop?

Has the “Stock Market Bubble” Started to Pop?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.02.2021 15:51
After what happened last week with beaten-down stocks such as GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC), there are indeed signs of a bubble forming. While these stocks don’t necessarily reflect the broader market, I have been calling a downturn for weeks.Complacency is by far the most significant risk in the markets right now, along with overstretched valuations beyond the GameStop “stonks,” and the possible return of inflation if the Fed lets the GDP run hot like I think they will.According to a recent Bank of America survey of 194 money managers, bullishness on stocks is at a three-year high, and the average share of cash in portfolios, which is usually a sign of protection from market turmoil, is at the lowest level since May 2013.Complacency.I still think we are long overdue for a correction since we haven't seen one since last March. The manic moves of the past week excite me but greatly concern me.Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).Thus far, what has occurred in January could be the potential start of the correction I have been forecasting. A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.We could also finally be approaching BUY levels on many of the SELL and HOLD calls I’ve made the last few weeks.Outside of my BUY call on the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT), which has gained 10.12% since I made the call on 12-3, I called the Nasdaq and the Russell both overbought and foresaw last week’s downturn.I made the SELL call on the QQQ Nasdaq ETF 1-25, and since then, it has declined 4.13%. I made the SELL call on the Russell 2000 IWM ETF 12-16 anticipating this eventual pullback. The Russell is now at its lowest level since the beginning of the year declined 4.30% in the last week.I also called the Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (PDBC) a BUY on 12-3, and it has gained 8.33%.Meanwhile, I’ve called the Dow Jones a HOLD for the last two months, and since 12-3, it is practically flat and up 0.15%.I’m not highlighting these calls to brag or toot my own horn. I’m highlighting these calls to remind everyone to please be level headed during these manic times and to please understand that stocks don’t only go up. The market saw its worst week since October last week, and has now declined in two of the last three weeks. More could come in the short-term.While GameStop and AMC are exciting, understand the risks you’re taking and don’t follow the herd.On the other hand, do not run and hide from a market decline, and do not let this deter you from chasing your goals. The market has overheated, but it is still not quite a broad sector-specific bubble like it was back in 2000. Yes, there are sectors more overvalued than others. But as we saw last week it’s more stock-specific. People still forget that shares of Eastman Kodak skyrocketed by 1,481% in three days last July. The broader indices seem to have done just fine since then.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions, and wish you the best of luck.We’re all in this together! The S&P 500 May Be One More Pullback from a “BUY” Figure 1- S&P 500 Large Cap Index $SPXHow quickly things change.Before the start of last week, the S&P was hovering around a record-high. Its forward P/E ratio was the highest it’s been since the dot-com bust, and the RSI consistently approached overbought levels.Now the question is, how soon before it’s a BUY? The index declined over -3.3% last week and has fallen in two of the previous three weeks. The S&P is also an index that trades in a streaky manner and can rip off multiple-day win streaks and lose streaks.I said before that once the S&P approaches a 3600-level, that we can start talking about it as a BUY. There are short-term concerns, with long-term optimism. The S&P briefly dipped below 3700 on Friday, and the RSI is sitting around 43.25. To me, this keeps it at a HOLD, with maybe one or two pullbacks away from a BUY.What does worry me a bit is a week full of more earnings beats did not impress the index. Investors likely anticipated this. Remember- when the market usually gets what it expects, it’s usually a reason to sell more than buy.A short-term correction could inevitably occur by the end of Q1 2021, but for now, I am sticking with the S&P as a HOLD. You can definitely start “nibbling” though.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the S&P, the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
How Will Silver’s (SLV) Recent Spike End?

How Will Silver’s (SLV) Recent Spike End?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.02.2021 16:11
When Joe Public buys shares during a wave of euphoria, they do it close to a market top or before the beginning of a decline. Looking at you, SLV!Silver rallied on Friday (Jan. 29), gold reversed its direction before the end of the day and so did miners, with the latter slightly underperforming gold. I wrote this before, and I’ll stress this once again today – the above is a perfectly bearish indication of an upcoming downturn in the precious metals market. This is not the first time it’s happening, and this combination of relative strengths worked reliably in the past. And we are not only just seeing that happening – we are seeing that at precisely the moment that is similar to previous patterns that were followed by sizable declines, which means that the relative bearish factors are even stronger.This also applies to the huge inflows to the SLV ETF that we just saw most recently. Let’s take a look below.Figure 1The inflows were huge, which means that a lot of capital poured into this particular silver ETF . No wonder – it was very popular among Reddit (and other forums) participants last week. Naturally, these investors are – in general – not professionals and they are not institutions either. They are part of the “investment public”, which tends to buy massively close to market tops and/or before important price declines.This indication might work on an immediate basis, but it could also work on a near-term basis – it depends on other circumstances. Did this work previously? Let’s check – after all, there were two other cases when we saw big spikes in SLV inflows – at the end of 2007 and at the beginning of 2013.What did silver do back then? I marked those situations with blue, vertical lines on the chart below.Figure 2The beginning of 2013 was when silver was not only already after its top, but was also in the final part of the back-and-forth trading that we saw before the bigger declines in that year.In late 2007, silver was still rallying, but it topped soon after that and subsequently plunged. At the 2008 bottom, silver was well below the levels at which the huge SLV inflows occurred.Consequently, the spike in inflows is not a bullish sign. It’s a major bearish sign for the medium term, especially knowing that it was the investment public that was making the purchases.Also, please note that the late-2007 spike wasn’t preceded by sizable inflows, but both the early 2013 and 2021 spikes were. Also, back in 2013, silver was already after a major top (just like right now) while in early 2007 it was breaking to new highs.As of now, silver just broke to new highs, but since this move is not confirmed yet, it seems that the current situation is still a bit more similar to what we saw in 2013 than in 2007. Therefore, the scenario in which we don’t have to wait long for silver’s slide is slightly more probable.The current volatility in silver suggests that the price moves are likely to be quick in both directions, so when the white metal tops it might be difficult to get out of one’s long position at prices that were better than one’s entry prices (provided that one joined the current sharp run-up).Especially since stocks just declined visibly and confirmed the breakdown below the rising support line in terms of three consecutive trading days, a weekly close, and a monthly close.Figure 3Stocks have also invalidated their breakout above their rising red support/resistance line. And it all caused the RSI to form a double-top near the 70 level, which preceded the two biggest price declines in the previous years.Figure 4It seems that while the bigger investors head for the hills, the individual public continues to focus on Gamestop and its recent gains. However, remember that they have to cash in above their entry price to make a profit, which is not that probable.The most important detail that we saw on Friday was the relatively low volume, on which Gamestop rallied. The buying power seems to be drying up and it seems that it won’t be long before everyone that wanted to buy, will already be “in”. And then, the price will start to slide as that’s what it simply does when there are no buyers and no sellers. Afterwards, a part of the public will sell, further adding to the selling pressure, which will see more declines, and so on. And as the final stock buyers turn into sellers, the top in stocks could be in.If stocks slide further shortly, it will be particularly bearish for silver and mining stocks , which means that those who bought yesterday based on forum messages, etc., would be likely to find themselves at a loss relatively soon. This, in turn, means that the decline could be quite volatile.Figure 5On a short-term basis, silver showed strength – also today, when it rallied slightly above the early-September high. Perhaps the final part of those who might have been inclined to buy based on the “ silver manipulation ” narrative and the forum encouragements in general, have decided to make their purchases over the weekend, and we’re seeing the result in today’s pre-market trading.This, coupled with the miners’ relative weakness means that the bearish outlook remains intact. If it “feels” that the precious metals market is about take off, but the analysis says otherwise (please remember about the first chart from today’s analysis), then it’s very likely that the PMs are topping. That’s what people see and “feel” at the top.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Expectations for Silver given the GameStop price action and the Reddit Revolution

Expectations for Silver given the GameStop price action and the Reddit Revolution

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 01.02.2021 21:40
Near the end of 2020, my research team identified trends, pullbacks, and overall upward/downward trends in US major markets as well as those for Gold and Silver.  It is time we revisited these early 2021 predictions in relation to what is happening in the markets currently. You can revisit our original publication entitled What To Expect in 2021 Part II - Gold, Silver, and SPY.At the time we made these predictions, we were unaware of the global phenomenon, the Reddit #wallstreetbets movement, that was taking place.  Our expectations are based on our advanced predictive modeling system and what it sees as the highest probability outcome for price.  The recent news that this Reddit group has targeted a number of symbols (GME, AMC, BB, amongst others), as well as SILVER, may change the dynamics/liquidity of the markets very quickly.What we are witnessing is the incredible strength of the retail trader when they act in a “pack-form”.  The retail traders of the world, using a social media platform, have found new strength as the global markets continue to struggle with COVID-19 and institutional weakness. In a way, these retail traders are focusing on an institutionally authorized “exploit”, like a game exploit, where short-sellers have been permitted to overrun many smaller traders and companies over the past decade or so – ever since the “Uptick Rule” was removed.  This has created an environment where excessive risks were allowed by many institutions as short sellers were able to enter short positions far in excess of the floating shares available.  With extreme leverage in place, these positions were ticking time-bombs waiting to explode. And then along comes the Reddit group – hungry, happy, and en mass.  They identify this structural weakness, which was legally allowed to happen, and begin their “autist wave” of buying these heavily shorted symbols.  Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Gamestop became a “shot across the bow” for these hedge funds and has sent a liquidity ripple across the global markets.  Is the financial system at risk because of excessive leverage, derivatives, and institutional manipulation?  What would it take to completely disrupt these hedge funds and what are the consequences of these short-squeeze runs?  Is this issue bigger than many people expect?  Could it turn into a “liquidity trap”?These are all questions that are certainly going to be answered over the next 6+ months and no one really has a true understanding of how the “deleveraging process” will take place.  If push comes to shove and institutional shorts are forced into excessive losses, then we may see a bigger corrective trend setup in 2021 as a result of this capital/liquidity trap that has sprung.Now, before we continue to review some of our 2021 expectations, let's review a couple of important charts...SPY Must Hold Above SupportThe following Daily SPY chart highlights the major support channel originating from the March 2020 lows.  If this channel is breached, we may begin a deeper downside trend that could align with a volatility/liquidity trap event.  Losses generated by these excessive, leveraged, short positions will prompt firms to pull profits from other symbols/sectors.  This wave of volatility may be just starting.Silver Targets $55 Or HigherSilver has recently been targeted by the Reddit group as one of the most heavily shorted precious metals on the planet.  Currently, silver has rallied above $30 in early trading on Monday, February 1, but has come down closer to the opening (which gapped significantly).  If Silver rallies above $35 and continues to trend, $50 to $55 is the next target level.  After that level is reached, we move into uncharted territory (above $55) and the sky's the limit for Silver and Gold.revisiting our 2021 ExpectationsNow, onto our 2021 Expectations and how this new dynamic of volatility and liquidity may change things. If the increased volatility and liquidity issue persists beyond February 2021, we would expect the global markets to begin to immediately reflect a transition away from excessive risks and leverage.  This would take place by off-loading positions in at-risk and in-profit trades throughout the world to position portfolios in a means to mitigate 3x+ std deviation risks.  This deleveraging process may prompt a huge upside move in precious metals because any global deleveraging event, if it aligns with a moderate price correction event, may push institutions to urgently address leverage issues.  This urgency, in combination with the retail trader revolt, may prompt an excessive liquidity trap in certain sectors/symbols – almost like a “flash-rally” event.Overall, we believe the global markets will settle back into our expected 2021 ranges – although Gold and Silver may rally far beyond our upside 2021 expectations if the Reddit group continue to push Silver higher like they did with Gamestop.  So, at this point, be prepared for massive volatility ranges and continued upside price trends in Gold and Silver while the markets address these global institutional and leverage issues.What this means for traders is that we should expect to see some really big trends through almost all of 2021.  Most importantly, we will end up with more rational price trends and a potentially reduced leverage environment for many sectors and symbols.  This should prompt various market sectors to initiate or resume trends as capital is put to work in sectors that have a stronger growth potential over the next few years.2021 is going to be full of these types of trends and setups.  Quite literally, hundreds of these setups and trades will be generated over the next 3 to 6 months using my BAN strategy.  You can learn how to find and trade the hottest sectors yourself with no proprietary indicators or algorithms just by taking my FREE one-hour BAN tutorial. For those who believe in the power of relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don't have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you. In addition to trade alerts that can be entered into at the end of the day or the following morning, subscribers also receive a 7-10 minute video every morning that walks you through the charts of all the major asset classes. For traders that want more trading than our 20-25 alerts per year, we provide our BAN Trader Pro subscribers with our BAN Hotlist of ETFs that is updated each day.Happy trading!
Bitcoin - Consolidation brings new opportunities

Bitcoin - Consolidation brings new opportunities

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 02.02.2021 08:33
ReviewSource: Messari December 31st, 2020After a massive rally from the beginning of October, Bitcoin almost reached prices around US$20,000 on December 1st. Despite a heavily overbought situation, the bulls only needed a two-week breather. The successful breakout immediately caused a further acceleration, so that bitcoin prices continued to explode until January 8th 2021 and were able to rise to almost US$42,000. Bitcoin had thus increased more than tenfold in less than 10 months since the Corona crash! Looking at 2020 as a whole, Bitcoin pretty much outperformed everything, gaining 318%.Source: Dan Held on TwitterOver the last three weeks, however, there was, not surprisingly, a wave of profit-taking hitting the bitcoin market. Hence, prices retraced all the way back down toward just under US$29,000. This rapid correction represented a drop of 31% in just 14 days. In the big picture, however, this is not unusual. Instead, bitcoin has seen countless corrective price moves like this over the past 10 years. In the last bull market between autumn 2015 and December 2017, there were a total of six sharp pullbacks, all of which amounted to sell offs between 29% and 38%.Source: Dan Tapiero on TwitterIn the bigger picture however, volatility is still relatively low. Rather, the relative volatility indicates that the range of fluctuation is only just slowly beginning to rise again and should spike towards the later stages during the course of this current bull market.Overall, bitcoin has been in a new bull market since the Corona Crash in March 2020 and is likely to head for much higher price regions in the coming 10 to 24 months. Daily fluctuations of US$10,000 and more will then become increasingly common.Technical Analysis For Bitcoin in US-DollarBitcoin, Weekly Chart as of February 2nd, 2021. Source: TradingviewWith the breakout above the all-time high around US$20,000 on December 16th, 2020, the Bitcoin rally that had been underway since March 2020 already accelerated once again significantly. Although the market was already heavily overbought on all timeframes, bitcoin doubled within the following four weeks and reached a new all-time high at around US$42,000 on January 8th, 2021. After such a price explosion, it takes time to digest this strong rise. The pullback towards and slightly below US$29,000 is therefore perfectly normal and healthy.From the perspective of the weekly chart, however, there are no clear signs for an end of that correction yet. Looking at the “old” support zones and the overbought stochastic oscillator, a return to the breakout level around US$20,000 would be quite conceivable. Beyond that, there are two long-term upward trend lines that could also act as possible targets on the downside.Using the classic Fibonacci retracements from the low at US$3,850 to the recent high at US$42,000, the 38.2% retracement at US$27,425 would be the minimum correction target. If bitcoin can continue to hold above this retracement, this would be an extremely bullish sign of strength. A first retest of the recent lows at US$29,000 was also successful and thus far created a nice double low which might already have marked the turning point. However, prices below those lows would confirm a larger and deeper type of correction. Prices around US$27,500 and lower towards US$20,000 to US$22,000 would then become increasingly likely.However, since bitcoin is undoubtedly in an established bull market and in an overarching uptrend, the surprises are generally happening to the upside. Therefore, the only thing to note here is that new prices above US$40,000 would probably signal a continuation of the steep rally. In this case, prices around the next psychological level at US$50,000 should follow quickly.To summarize the weekly chart remains bullish above US$20,000. At the same time, there are still no signals for an end to the recently started pullback. In view of the relatively fresh stochastic sell signal, there is a distinct possibility that the correction of the last four weeks could extend significantly. However, if the bulls can keep the prices above US$29,000, the rally can continue at any time.Bitcoin, Daily Chart as of February 2nd, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, the correction of the last three weeks had created a pretty oversold situation and thus a low-risk entry opportunity. Now that bitcoin quickly recovered from those lows around US$29,000, the good low-risk set up is certainly gone. Especially since a third attack pullback US$29,000 would now have to be interpreted as weakness.But although the 200-day moving average (US$16,738) as well as the established support zone at US$20,000 are far away from current pricing around US$34,000, the setup looks promising. Based on the principle that a trend in motion is more likely to continue than to suddenly turn around, it is important to look for entry opportunities on the long side only (“buy the dip”). Bitcoin now has to surpass its recent high above US$38,600 to establish a short-term series of higher lows and higher highs. This would shift the daily chart clearly back into bullish territory.Overall, the daily chart is coming out of an oversold setup recovering quickly, but somehow is still stuck in a downtrend short-term. However, bitcoin has now been trading around and above USD 30,000 for more than four weeks already. This means that a base is being formed from which the rally should continue rather sooner than later.Sentiment Bitcoin – Consolidation brings new opportunitiesBitcoin Optix as of January 24th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe quantitative sentiment indicator “Bitcoin Optix” signaled a short-term exaggeration at the end of December and then especially at the beginning of January. However, the sharp pullback in the order of 31% completely cooled down any excessive optimism and even created a small panic among the weak hands in the short term.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of February 1st, 2021. Source: Crypto Fear & Greed Index The much more complex Crypto Fear & Greed Index, on the other hand, continues to measure an increased level of greed in the entire crypto sector. However, such conditions did persist for many months in the past.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of January 24th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn a long-term comparison, however, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also declined significantly and currently reflects a rather balanced sentiment picture.Overall, the overly optimistic sentiment has been cleared up surprisingly quickly due to the price decline from US$42,000 down to US$29,000. Hence, nothing stands in the way of a continuation of the rally from a sentiment perspective. Seasonality Bitcoin – Consolidation brings new opportunities –Bitcoin seasonality. Source: SeasonaxFrom a seasonal perspective, bitcoin has been most often moving sideways from mid o January until mid-April. Accordingly, the recently started correction could well drag on for at least a few more weeks.Bitcoin seasonality in bull market years. Source: SeasonaxHowever, if we only use the price development in bull market years, the data set shrinks to the years 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2017. But at the same time, it becomes clear that in these years bitcoin always found an important low between mid-January and mid-February.Overall, one would be well advised not to expect any exaggerated price explosions in the coming weeks. Statistically, these tend to occur in the months of April to June and October to December. However, the seasonal outlook for the next one to two months is not really unfavorable either.Sound-money: Bitcoin vs. GoldSound Money Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of January 25th, 2021. Source: ChaiaWith current prices of US$33,650 for one bitcoin and US$1,864 for one troy ounce of gold, the bitcoin/gold ratio is currently around 18.05, i.e., you currently have to pay more than 18 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. In other words, one troy ounce of gold currently costs only 0.055 bitcoin.Goldbug´s Achilles Heel, Source Midas Touch Consulting January 25th, 2021.This means that bitcoin´s outperformance against gold has clearly intensified in the past two months. An end to this major trend is not in sight. Quite the contrary, despite possible short-term fluctuations and countertrend moves, gold and silver are more likely to lose further against bitcoin.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in Bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and of 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to Bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is normally also invested in equities and real estate, more than 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile Bitcoin is already a lot!Opposites compliment. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the digital aspect of bitcoin you have a complimentary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro OutlookSource: Investing.comWith the inauguration of Joe Biden, the political circumstances in the USA have shifted significantly, but the loose monetary policy of the last twenty years is likely to continue and intensify significantly. The prices for gold and silver, as well as for bitcoin, will therefore continue to be driven upwards in the medium term by the constant expansion of the money supply.US Total Debt, © Holger Zschaepitz. Source Twitter @Schuldensuehner, 20. Januar 2021The monetary policy, backed by nothing but the blind trust of the citizens, had already led to an unprecedented debt orgy in the USA since the end of the gold standard in 1971. The record-high US national debt was further exacerbated by the Corona crisis in 2020 and is now rising parabolically. The same applies to pretty much all other countries and currency zones on our planet.Global Stock Market Cap, © Holger Zschaepitz.. Source Twitter @Schuldensuehner, 24. Januar 2021Driven by the constant currency creation, the market capitalization of global stock markets therefore continues to rise. It is important to realize that the stock markets no longer reflect the real economy as they used to. The only thing that matters is the constant expansion of liquidity via central bank balance sheets.Source: Bitcoin ResourcesThe unregulated and decentralized Bitcoin is therefore increasingly a thorn in the side of central bankers and politicians. After all, the irresponsible central bank policy can be recognized quite easily here. One can even say that in view of Bitcoin prices above US$30,000, the hyper-inflationary tendencies of fiat currencies are already becoming visible here. Whereas in the gold market one can always intervene in a depressing way on prices via so-called paper gold, the short-selling attacks on the Bitcoin markets are collapsing like a soufflé due to the digital scarcity. The decentralized structure of bitcoin is also a phenomenon that the technocrats will not be able to deal with, even with a ban.However, we have to assume that in the coming months or years there will be a concentrated attack on bitcoin by central bankers and politicians. However, the more institutional capital is invested in Bitcoin, the more difficult this undertaking will be.Source: Flipside CryptoA real point of criticism, on the other hand, is the extremely unbalanced distribution of the Bitcoins mined so far. Slightly more than 2% of the wallets hold 95% of the Bitcoins. This threatens to create a new power structure that can manipulate Bitcoin prices in its favor at will.Bitcoin – Consolidation brings new opportunitiesSource: Messari December 28th, 2020Bitcoin is undoubtedly in the middle of a new bull market. The final top has not yet been reached by a long shot. Prices around US$100,000 and possibly even above US$300,000 are quite conceivable in the next 10 to 24 months. The main drivers will be an institutional buying spree, as these institutional investors will come under an increasing pressure due to rising prices.Of course, there will be some brutal pullbacks on the way to higher prices. To be able to profit from this bull market, you need to be patient. And you really need to have internalized the so-called “Hodl” strategy.In summary, bitcoin is consolidating at high level trying to build a new base. This consolidation may well last a few more weeks and could also bring lower prices. More likely, however, is a continuation of the rally towards US$50,000 in the near future already.Source: Regard NewsAlso, it more an more smells like “altcoin season”. Bitcoin prices have already doubled from the old all-time high. Then, in the last four weeks, Ethereum also reached its December 2017 high around US$1,400. In the next phase, Ethereum should outperform Bitcoin. Afterwards, the smaller altcoins will explode. This time, the highflyers are likely to be in the booming DeFi sector. However, anyone who wants to play along here has to practice tough risk management and take profits regularly and quickly.Analysis sponsored and initially published on January 26th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running is own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.Florian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.eu
USD rises to a two-week high

USD rises to a two-week high

John Benjamin John Benjamin 02.02.2021 08:39
Euro Resumes Slide, After A Two-Day GainThe euro currency is trading weaker on Monday following two daily sessions of gains previously. Price action remains confined below the 1.2144 level of resistance.Given the current pace of declines, the EURUSD currency pair is likely to test the 1.2050 level of support more firmly.We expect the support level near 1.2050 to hold up for the moment. As a result, the EURUSD could maintain a sideways range within 1.2144 and 1.2050 levels.The stochastics oscillator is currently moving closer to the oversold levels. Therefore, we could expect to see prices rebounding off the 1.2050 handle.In the unlikely event that the EURUSD loses the 1.2050 support, we could expect to see a larger correction down to 1.1900.GBPUSD Testing The Lower Trend-LineThe British pound sterling is also on track to post declines following a period of consolidation since last week.Price action is currently testing the lower trendline of the ascending wedge pattern. A continuation to the downside could potentially open the way for the GBPUSD to test the 1.3500 level of support.However, for this to materialize, the GBPUSD will need to post a convincing breakdown lower.Given that price action closed rather flat on a weekly basis, a bearish close this week could potentially strengthen the downside bias.This could mean that the cable could be looking to post further declines in the medium-term outlook.Crude Oil Bounces Off Lower End Of The RangeWTI crude oil prices are posting modest gains rising over 1% on Monday. This comes as prices briefly slipped below the lower end of the range near 51.87.Despite the current pace of gains, oil prices remain stuck within the range between 53.77 and 51.87. Only a strong breakout from this level will potentially confirm further direction in the commodity.For the moment, the continuation to the upside could see the 53.77 level being tested.On a weekly basis, we see that oil prices are trading flat for three consecutive weeks so far.The stochastics oscillator is currently moving out from the oversold levels and gives support to the upside bounce.Gold Prices Struggle To Breakout Above 1874The precious metal continues to trade flat amid the US dollar strengthening. While prices have managed to stay afloat above the 1850 level of support, the upper resistance level near 1874 is proving hard to break.As a result, gold prices remain caught within the 1874 and 1850 levels for the moment. The stochastics oscillator also signals the rather choppy movement within the said levels.Price action on the higher chart timeframes also continues to remain mixed. As a result, we could expect to see gold prices staying below the 1874 level for becoming few sessions.The bias still remains to the downside, however, a swing low is being formed near the 1835 level.A close below this level will potentially open the way for gold prices to retest the lower support near 1817.79.
2021 Should See Improved Gold Demand

2021 Should See Improved Gold Demand

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 02.02.2021 16:16
The World Gold Council recently published two interesting reports. Gold demand plunged in 2020, but 2021 should be positive for the yellow metal.On Thursday (January 28), the WGC published its newest report about gold demand trends: Gold Demand Trends Full Year and Q4 2020 . The key message of this publication is that the gold demand of 783.4 tons (excluding over-the-counter activity) in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 28 percent lower year-over-year. As a result, it was the weakest quarter since the midst of the Great Recession in Q2 2008. The weak quarter made the whole year quite disappointing, as the annual gold demand in 2020 dropped by 14 percent to only 3,675.6 tons, making it the lowest level of demand since 2009 .The main driver of this decline was the COVID-19 pandemic, that triggered the Great Lockdown and the subsequent surge in gold prices. In consequence, jewelry demand plunged 34 percent to 1,411.6 tons, the lowest annual level on record. It shows that – contrary to popular opinion – consumers are price takers, not price setters, in the precious metals market.So, what is really interesting for me is that the investment demand, the true driver of gold prices, grew 40 percent to a record annual high of 1,773.2 tons . Although there was a slight increase in bar and coin investment, the surge in investment demand was caused mainly by the great inflow into global gold-backed ETFs , whose holdings grew by 877.1 tons last year, a record level.These inflows were, of course, fueled by the spread of the coronavirus and the fiscal and monetary policies that followed in response. Gold was actually one of the best performing major assets in 2020 amid high uncertainty and low real interest rates . Importantly, there were net outflows from the gold ETFs in the Q4, but they were concentrated in November, so the worst may be behind us.When it comes to other categories, the central banks added a net 273 tons in 2020, the lowest level since 2010, as some central banks sold gold amid recession to obtain liquidity. It confirms gold’s role as a safe-haven asset and portfolio-diversifier . Indeed, gold had one of the lowest drawdowns during 2020, reducing investors’ losses. The technology demand fell seven percent in the last year to 301.9 tons due to the economic disruptions of the pandemic . Total supply fell four percent to 4,633 tons, the first annual decline since 2017, as the pandemic disrupted mine production.The WGC’s demand report is, as always, interesting, but it should be taken with a pinch of salt . The reason is that the WGC wrongly defines the demand and supply for gold, narrowing it to the annual supply and its use, and omitting the great bulk of transactions in the gold market. In consequence, the report contradicts simple economic logic. According to the WGC, gold supply fell four percent, while gold demand declined 14 percent – but the average yearly price of gold gained 27 percent (see the chart below)! Whoa, when I learnt economics, the drop in demand (higher than the decrease in supply) was pushing the prices down!Implications for GoldBut let’s leave the past and now focus on the future! In January 2021, the WGC also published its gold outlook for the new year . Not surprisingly, the industry organization is generally bullish , but it notices the headwinds as well . According to the WGC, the hope of economic recovery and easy money will increase the risk appetite, creating downward pressure on gold prices.However, the WGC believes that the low interest rates and potential portfolio risks will support the investment demand for the yellow metal. In particular, ballooning fiscal deficits , the growing money supply and the possibility of higher inflation and the risk of the stock market correction (who knows, maybe the GameStop saga will trigger some broader bearish implications?!) should support gold prices.The WGC’s conclusion turns out to be similar to my own 2021 outlook for gold: that it could be a positive year for the yellow metal, but less so than 2020 – at least under the condition that the global economy will experience a steady recovery without too much inflationary pressure. But inflation may arrive, ending the era of the Goldilocks economy – and possibly starting the year of gold. Only time will tell!If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Correction in Stocks Almost Over While Gold Is Basing

Correction in Stocks Almost Over While Gold Is Basing

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.02.2021 16:30
In line with expectations and probabilities, the stock bulls returned, and I closed Friday initiated long position for a solid 40-point gain in S&P 500! All right, but are the bulls as strong as might seem from looking at this week‘s price performance? Such were my yesterday‘s words: (…) is this the dreaded sizable correction start, or the general February weakness I warned about a week ago? I‘m still calling for the S&P 500 to be in a bullish uptrend this quarter and next, though I‘m not looking for as spectacular gains as in the 2020 rebound. That‘s still my call. Fears from the Fed talking taper contours, GameStop and silver squeeze are taking a back seat to the realities of leading economic indicators rising, stimulus coming, and the central bank more than willing to mop it up. Commodities are red hot, leading precious metals, and inflation will rear its ugly head this year for sure. The momentary dollar resilience which I called both preceding Mondays to happen, will give way to much lower values. Twin deficits are a curse. Such were my observations on gold – please read yesterday‘s extensive analysis. It‘s one of the most important ones written thus far on gold: (…) I don‘t see gold plunging to any dramatic number such as $1,700 but given that the dollar looks to have stabilized for now, and may even attempt a modest and brief rally from here, gold may get again under corresponding (and weak) pressure – should the silver squeeze be defeated. After the margin raise, it is certainly on the defensive now. Yet I see encouraging signs for the new precious metals upleg to emerge (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook I laid out the case clearly on Friday as to why we‘re witnessing another downswing lacking internal balance. We didn‘t have to wait long for the recovery from options expiry plunge, yet the volume leaves a little to be desired. Wasn‘t weak really, just Monday‘s regular, lower volume. Lower volume days can get challenged. I would prefer to see follow through in price advance coupled with a volume reading I could interpret positively so as to be able to call this correction as fully over. Credit Markets & Risk Metrics Both leading credit market ratios – high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) and investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) – are trading at their local lows, neither rising nor breaking below – given the bullish price action in S&P 500, I treat their short-term underperformance as a watchout. Volatility is still elevated, yet calming down – slowly but surely.That‘s pointing out we‘re in the latter stages of the correction. The put/call ratio has retreated again, reflecting my yesterday‘s point that the fear in the markets is in a generally declining trend. Both moving averages are still falling, and the spike didn‘t reach the pre-elections and early September peaks either. Still no change in sentiment, and we‘re well on the preceding path marking further stock market gains. Shining Light on Gold The king of metals is still ill positioned to keep the silver short squeeze gains. Yes, I am not trusting the daily indicators one bit, and look instead at the lower volume and repeated inability to keep intraday gains. This is the sign of an approaching upleg in the precious metals – miners rebounding relative to gold after preceding breakdown. Should the mining companies keep their relative gains, that would be encouraging for the whole sector. What if the stock market though puts the carefully laid plans to rest? The above chart shows that there has been in recent months no clear relationship either way and interconnectedness of reaction between the two assets. Let‘s stay objective and don‘t succumb to the plunge in stocks fear mongering. The gold to silver ratio is similarly to the $HUI:$GOLD ratio showing that the tide in precious metals is turning, and the time for the bears is running up. I like the fact that love trade is starting to kick in as opposed to fear trade. Love trade, that means rising preference for gold because the economy is doing better, while fear trade is about hiding in the bunker. On one hand, gold is vulnerable to rising (long-term Treasury) yields, and it‘s also lagging behind the commodity complex. It‘s also trading with the negative correlation to the dollar, which is set to put up a some fight in the short run again – please see my yesterday‘s extensive gold market analysis bring proof for these assertions as these form the short-term watchouts for the gold bulls. From the Readers‘ Mailbag Q: Hi Monica, I wanted to say a big thank you for responding to my question last week which I did find reassuring. Little did we see what a week we would have to follow hey, especially in silver. I know that it has to cross the Rubicon at $30 and hold but I would like to get your observations. Can silver get going now (you thought Spring more likely) I also like platinum and wondered what you see there and finally can gold shuffle of its winter blues sooner rather than later. A: Always welcome – it‘s common knowledge that I love to engage in discussion with readers and everyone concerned. I called for gold to get going through spring, and now with WallStreetBets, silver has sprung to life. Platinum I see as notoriously lagging behind, and its catalyst demand in a challenged market is one of the fundamental culprits – jewellery demand won‘t save it. Palladium has much better prospects, not to discuss the wild swings in rhodium to get an idea what PGMs can deliver. Gold is still within its basing pattern, and unless it attracts the attention of internet crowd (see my yesterday‘s reply on how to play the silver squeeze), will take its time in breaking higher. Look at the gold-silver ratio – it‘s the white metal‘s turn to deliver stronger returns now, which is in line with the economic recovery underway (silver is an industrial metal, too). Summary The stock market recovered, and looks set to digest today‘s premarket gains on top of Monday‘s ones, signifying that the correction is in its latter stages. Credit market recovery is a missing piece of the puzzle. Gold though isn‘t out of the woods yet in the short run, but I see its medium-term bullish case getting stronger even as it remains rangebound for now. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals. * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Dollar Rises to a Two-Month High

Dollar Rises to a Two-Month High

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.02.2021 08:06
EURUSD Touches Down To 1.2050 Level Of Support The euro currency finally fell to the support level of 1.2050, testing the level more firmly. While price action is trading below this level, we could expect to see some consolidating taking place.The Stochastics oscillator is also firmly in the oversold level, it supports the possibility of price action consolidation near this level.However, if the bearish momentum continues, then the euro currency is likely to extend declines further.The next main support level is near 1.1900. However, if resistance forms near the 1.2050 level, the declines can be confirmed.GBPUSD Breaks Down From Ascending Wedge The British pound sterling is extending declines after losing the support from the trendline of the ascending wedge pattern.With price action now clearing the ascending wedge pattern, further downside is likely.As the Stochastics oscillator is now near the oversold level, we could expect to see a rebound in the near term. This could see a short term retracement back to the breakout level once again.To the downside, price action is likely to find support near the Jan 26 swing lows of 1.3610. A break down below this level will confirm further declines to the 1.3500 level of support.WTI Crude Oil Rises To A One-Year High Crude oil price finally broke out from the range it has been in for nearly three weeks. The strong upside breakout pushed the commodity toward a new one-year high.A pullback is likely to occur in the near term toward the upper range near 53.77. Price action will need to break out strongly above the 55.00 level in order to maintain the upside.Given the current momentum, the downside looks a bit limited for the moment.However, this could change if oil prices lose the 53.77 support level. It would once again put price action back within the sideways range.Gold Prices Slip Below 1850 Technical Support The precious metal broke past the 1850 level of support on Tuesday.The declines come as price action was consolidating between the 1850 and 1874 levels. If the current pace of decline continues, then we expect to see a move to the 1817.80 level of support once again.The Stochastics oscillator is moving closer to the oversold levels. Therefore, the support area near 1874 is likely to find support once again.This will keep prices supported above this level for the near term.Given the current momentum, the precious metal is unlikely to breakout above the 1874 level of resistance.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Bitcoin profits through quad exit strategy

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 03.02.2021 11:23
We use quad exits to honor the principle of “Choices.” Our approach is an “all in” system with a high expectancy of immediate profits based on the action-reaction principle. We are contrarians and are fading moves. As such, we exit half of the position shortly after entry for small gains to mitigate risk. Then we take another 25% off the position on our first target and another 25% on our 2nd final target.Here are the significant advantages of the Quad Exit Strategy: It is typically getting more and more stressful for the mind through increased fear that gained profits might disappear. The quad exit supplements by making you emotionally an instant winner on your first exit.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Risk taken out before the breakout:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of February 1st, 2021The principle is that the more extended a move, the more extensive the possible snap back to the mean. Fear of missing out on profits tends for amateur traders to either make a tight stop, which takes them out or worse, they use a stop somewhat in the middle, taking quite big profits away and still getting stopped out. Principle-based though is to have either an extensive stop or take a profit target. However, both are very hard to do due to our human psychology. With the Quad Exit Strategy, you erase these hardships. You exit with half to mitigate risk and create a psychological balance following the instinct to cash in. Now you have two segments of each 25% of the total position size still left to be very flexible in maneuvering.The daily chart above shows the various points of interest within a trade sequence. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Volume analysis supportive of runner success:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2021In our personal experience, after the second exit with yet another profit booked, one is very much at ease to let the runner (= the last 25% of the position size) do what it needs to do: RUN!With price sitting right on a high volume analysis support node as seen on the weekly chart above, it’s survival has a good chance. Even if the trend continuation should fail it will get stopped out at break even entry levels and we still took profits on 75% of our original position size.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin profits through Quad exit strategy:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2021.The large time frame chart shows supportive of the trend. With a healthy Fibonacci retracement of .618%, the odds for trend continuation are in favor.Of course, no one knows when a trend is over, but you don’t have to worry using the Quad Exit Strategy.Bitcoin profits through Quad Exit Strategy:Typically, one is glued to the screen when prices go into one’s favor with a biased emotional emphasis on up and downticks. With the Quad Exit Strategy however, you have an emotionally balanced mindset since 75% of the positions are successfully cashed in already. Now you can apply reliable technical analysis for the runner part. That means evaluating how much risk you are willing to take for this position part versus how likely the projections are for it to go further. You can do this unbiased and with a fresh mind. It also allows for wide and accurate stop placement and makes you see the market for what it truly is. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
GameStocks - Fun While It Lasted..

GameStocks - Fun While It Lasted..

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.02.2021 15:45
So how about GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC)? That Silver short-squeeze? Fighting the man? That was fun while it lasted.I don't want to lecture anyone or say that I told you so. During one of my newsletters last week, I even said that I tip my hat to anyone who profited from this—all the respect in the world.Me personally, though, I would never trade like this. Monday (Feb. 1) and Tuesday's market (Feb. 2) was nothing more than a reality check. GameStop's stock has lost nearly half of its value, and other Reddit darlings like AMC, Blackberry (BB), Koss (KOSS), and Silver (SLV) tanked.Stocks don't go up forever.Stonks especially don’t.Who knows, maybe the party's not over. But I think the plummet in the Reddit stocks was bound to happen. Bubbles always eventually pop.The market seems happy that the earth is back on its axis in stockland. The indices have recovered nearly all of last week's losses already.I didn't call the GameStop short-squeeze, but I had called last week's downturn for a while. The recovery so far this week wasn't entirely surprising either.Be that as it may, I remain concerned about complacency in the markets and overstretched valuations, plus the potential return of inflation. But the breather last week was needed and brought the indices to less overbought levels.Generally, investors and analysts are bullish these days. According to a recent Bank of America survey of 194 money managers, bullishness on stocks is at a three-year high, and the average share of cash in portfolios, which is usually a sign of protection from market turmoil, is at the lowest level since May 2013.We have still not declined 10% from the record highs- the minimum needed for a correction. Although the market needed last week's downturn, we're once again mostly right where we were several days ago.I know what you’re thinking. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are the latest companies to crush their earnings estimates, how could we possibly have a correction?For one, there are still things to be concerned about from a public health and economic perspective.We are also long overdue for one. We haven't seen one since last March. Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.We're no longer as close to those same BUY levels as we were after market close on Friday. But we're not quite at SELL again, and I still think we're a few pullbacks away from making more BUY calls with conviction. In other words, welcome to no man's land.In my last newsletter, I cautioned against making manic moves and trading with emotions. We saw our worst week since October last week and declined in two of the previous three. Much of that was due to the GameStops and AMCs freaking out Wall Streeters. But I reminded you then, and I'll remind you again. Shares of Eastman Kodak surged by 1,481% in three days last July, and the broader market seems to have done just fine since then.Do not let the noise deter you from your goals. My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck.We're all in this together! Is It Safe to Buy Tech Again?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPEarnings season for tech stocks hit record numbers last week, and is set to continue this week with Amazon and Alphabet clobbering estimates. Usually, when investors get what they expect, it’s more of a reason to sell rather than buy.But the Nasdaq so far this week has already recovered almost all of last week’s losses, and then some.I’m not ready to call this a BUY though, or recommend buying into momentum. There are still concerns. Tech valuations, especially the tech IPO market, terrify me. SPACs don’t help either. The Nasdaq last week declined to a more "normal" level, and in the span of two days, hit an RSI approaching 63 again.Last week's decline was needed, but there are still echoes of the dot-com bubble 20-years ago. I remain bullish on earnings and tech sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech for 2021, but please monitor the RSI.The RSI is how I have called the Nasdaq since December. While an overbought or oversold RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, it has with the Nasdaq.The Nasdaq pulled back on December 9 after exceeding an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back again after passing 70 again around Christmas time. We also exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year, and what happened on the first trading day of 2021? A decline of 1.47%.When I changed my Nasdaq call from a HOLD to a SELL on January 11 after the RSI exceeded 70, the Nasdaq declined again by 1.45%.Before the Nasdaq exceeded an RSI over 73 prior to January 25th, I switched my call back to SELL, and the QQQ promptly declined 4.13% for the week.The Nasdaq is trading in a precise pattern.I still like tech and am bullish for 2021. But for now, I'm going to stay conservative and say HOLD.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
EUR and Silver: Going Down a One-Way Street

EUR and Silver: Going Down a One-Way Street

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.02.2021 17:25
Since the precious metals like to ride along with the EUR/USD, and the latest Eurozone data looks grim, what are the implications for the PMs?Just when everyone and their brother thought that silver was going straight to the moon… it plunged. And that’s not the end of the decline.Figure 1 – COMEX Silver FuturesI previously emphasized that silver’s volatile upswing is likely just temporary, and I discussed the Kondratiev cycle which implies much higher gold prices but not necessarily right away, because the value of cash (USD) would be likely to soar as well. The latter would likely trigger a temporary slide in gold – and silver.Well, was silver’s rally just temporary?This seems to have been the case. The white metal declined back below not only the 2020 highs, but also back below this year’s early high. Please remember that invalidations of breakouts have immediately bearish implications and we just saw more than one in case of silver.So far today (Feb. 3), silver is quiet, but let’s keep in mind that back in September, it took only a few sessions for the white precious metal to move from approximately the current price levels to about $22.Will silver slide as much shortly? This is quite likely, although the downswing doesn’t have to be as quick as it was in September.Terms like the silver shortage , the size of the silver market and silver manipulation became incredibly popular in the last couple of days, which - together with huge SLV volume, and this ETF’s inflows - confirms the dramatic increase in interest in this particular market. This is exactly what happens close to market tops: silver steals the spotlight while mining stocks are weak. I’ve seen this countless times , and in most cases, it was accompanied by multiple voices of people “feeling” that the silver market is about to explode. For example, please consider what happened in early September 2020 on both (above and below) charts. Silver jumped and almost reached its August 2020 high, while the GDX was unable to rally even to (let alone above) its mid-August high.Don’t get me wrong, I think that silver will soar in the following years and I’m not shorting silver (nor am I suggesting this) right now and in fact I haven’t been on the short side of the silver market for months. In fact, I expect silver to outperform gold in the final part of the next massive upswing, but… I don’t think this massive upswing has started yet.Gold had it’s nice post-Covid panic run-up, but it didn’t manage to hold its breakout above the 2011 highs, despite multiple dovish pledges from the Fed, the open-ended QE, and ridiculously low interest rates. Plus, while gold moved above its 2011 highs, gold stocks have barely corrected half of their decline from their 2011 highs. Compare that to when the true bull market started about two decades ago – gold miners were soaring and multiplying gold’s gains in the medium run.Let’s take a look at mining stocks, using the GDX ETF as a proxy for them.Figure 2 – VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Are miners weak right now? Of course, they are weak. It was not only silver that got attention recently, but also silver stocks . The GDX ETF is mostly based on gold stocks, but still, silver miners’ performance still affects it. And… GDX is still trading relatively close to the yearly lows. Silver moved a bit above its 2020 highs – did miners do that as well? Absolutely not, they were only able to trigger a tiny move higher.And based on yesterday’s decline, most of the recent run-up was already erased.Interestingly, the most recent move higher only made the similarity of this shoulder portion of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern to the left shoulder ( figure 2 - both marked with green) bigger. This means that when the GDX breaks below the neck level of the pattern in a decisive way, the implications are likely to be extremely bearish for the next several weeks or months.Due to the uncanny similarity between the two green rectangles, I decided to check what happens if this mirror-similarity continues. I used purple, dashed lines for that. There were two important short-term price swings in April 2020 – one shows the size of the correction and one is a near-vertical move higher.Copying these price moves (purple lines) to the current situation, we get a scenario in which GDX (mining stocks) moves to about $31 and then comes back up to about $34. This would be in perfect tune with what I wrote previously. After breaking below the head-and-shoulders pattern, gold miners would then be likely to verify this breakdown by moving back up to the neck level of the pattern. Then, we would likely see another powerful slide – perhaps to at least $24.All in all, it seems that silver’s run-up was just a temporary phenomenon and the next big medium-term move in the precious metals and mining stocks is going to be to the downside.Having said that, let’s take a look at the markets from the fundamental point of view.EUR-on to SomethingFor weeks , I’ve been warning that the fundamental disconnect between the U.S. and Eurozone economies could pressure the EUR/USD.And on Jan. 29, I wrote:The economic divergence between Europe and the U.S. continues to widen. On Jan. 28, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that U.S. GDP (advanced estimate) likely expanded by 4.0% in the fourth-quarter.Figure 3Making its counter move, Eurozone fourth-quarter GDP was released on Feb. 2, revealing that the European economy shrank by 0.7% (the red box below). Even more revealing, France and Italy – Europe’s second and third-largest economies – underperformed the bloc average, contracting by 1.3% and 2.0% respectively (the blue box below).Figure 4 - Source: EurostatIn addition, German retail sales (released on Feb. 1) declined by 9.6% in December – well below the 2.6% contraction expected by economists. And why is this relevant? Because the month-over-month decline was the largest since 1956 and speaks volumes coming from Europe’s largest economy.Please see below:Figure 5If that wasn’t enough, Spain’s (Europe’s fourth-largest economy) Q4 GDP inched up by only 0.40% (the red box below). And not only did the figure come in well below the Spanish government’s December estimate (of an increase of 2.40%), the country’s exports declined by 1.4%, while business investment plunged by 6.2% (the blue boxes below).Figure 6 - Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística (Spain’s National Statistics Institute)Moreover, as the fiscal situation worsens across Europe’s four-largest economies, the European Central Bank (ECB) has no choice but to pick up the slack. As of Feb. 2, the ECB’s balance sheet now totals more than 70% of Eurozone GDP (up from 69%). More importantly though, the figure is more than double the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) 34.5% (down from 35%).Please see below:Figure 7Thus, while the ECB’s money printer works overtime relative to the FED’s, the dominoes are lining up for a material fall:The ECB’s relative outprinting causes the FED/ECB ratio to declineA declining FED/ECB ratio causes the EUR/USD to declineA declining EUR/USD causes the precious metals to declineTo explain, please see below:Figure 8The red line above depicts the movement of the EUR/USD, while the green line above depicts the FED/ECB ratio. As you can see, when the green line rises (the FED is outprinting the ECB), the EUR/USD also tends to rise. Conversely, when the green line falls (the ECB is outprinting the FED), the EUR/USD tends to fall.As it stands today, the FED/ECB ratio has declined by 0.26% week-over-week and is down by nearly 18% since June. And if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the EUR/USD is starting to notice. As the FED/ECB ratio tracks lower, the EUR/USD is starting to roll over. And if history is any indication, the EUR/USD has plenty of catching up to do.Also signaling a profound EUR/USD decline, I warned on Jan. 27 that the EUR/GBP could be the canary in the coal mine.On Monday (Jan. 25), I wrote that Janet Yellen’s pledge to “act big” on the next coronavirus relief package ushered the EUR/GBP back above critical support.However, on Tuesday (Jan. 26), the key level broke again.Please see below:Figure 9More importantly though, a break in the EUR/GBP could be an early warning sign of a forthcoming break in the EUR/USD.Figure 10If you analyze the chart above, ~20 years of history shows that the EUR/GBP and the EUR/USD tend to follow in each other’s footsteps. As a result, if the EUR/GBP retests its April low (the next support level), the EUR/USD is likely to tag along for the ride (which implies a move back to ~1.08).As it stands today, the wheels are already in motion. On Feb. 2, the EUR/GBP made another fresh low and the initial support level is all but gone.Figure 11Furthermore, notice how the EUR/USD is tracking the EUR/GBP lower? Despite being a fair distance from the ~1.08 level, the euro’s weakness relative to sterling is a sign that the Eurozone calamity is finally starting to weigh on its currency.If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the EUR/USD has already broken below its December and January support.Figure 12More importantly though, we could be approaching a point of no return.Figure 13Barely breaking out of a roughly 12-year downtrend, the EUR/USD has yet to invalidate the declining long-term resistance line. As a result, and with the EUR/USD already rolling over, a break below the 1.16/1.17 level puts ~1.08 well within the range of the 2015/2016 lows.And how could this affect the PMs?Well, notice how they like to tag along for the EUR/USD’s ride?Figure 14Despite silver’s short squeeze providing a short-term reprieve, it’s no surprise that the EUR/USD’s weakness has been met with angst by the PMs.Please see below:Figure 15As a result, the floundering euro is ushering the PMs down a one-way street. And while they may veer off to view the scenery from time to time, they all remain on a path to lower prices. Thus, yesterday’s sell-off highlights the superficiality of Monday’s (Feb. 1) surge. But while finding a true bottom requires time and patience, once it occurs, the PMs long-term uptrend will resume once again.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
USD Struggles to Breakout from a Two-Month High

USD Struggles to Breakout from a Two-Month High

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.02.2021 08:18
Euro Posts Declines For Three Consecutive Days The euro currency is posting declines for three consecutive days. Price action is now trading below the 1.2050 level.This comes even as the Stochastics oscillator is firmly below the oversold level. Price action posted a modest rebound back to the 1.2050 level where resistance has been established.Given the current pace of declines, we could expect the common currency to fall to the 1.1900 level. The downside bias will only change if price rises above the 1.2050 level.GBPUSD Turns Flat But Downside Bias Rises The British pound sterling pushed below the rising wedge pattern and price action is likely to fall further.The short term resistance level near 1.3678 is likely to keep a lid from price posting further gains. To the downside, we expect the declines to continue toward the 1.3500 level.On the daily chart, price action is trading flat for the second daily session. However, a strong bearish candlestick is required to confirm further downside.The daily Stochastics oscillator is also moving lower from the overbought levels for the moment.WTI Crude Oil Rises For Third Daily Session Crude oil prices are posting solid gains for the third consecutive session.The gains come on the back of declining crude oil inventories. It’s further due to news that the Democrats took first steps toward advancing President Biden’s proposal of $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid.Price action is now inching closer to the next main resistance level of 57.35. The Stochastics oscillator is also showing further room to the upside.In the near term, any declines could see the price retesting the 53.77 level. However, it is unlikely that we will see any short term pullbacks currently.Gold Prices Subdued Below 1850 The precious metal is posting modest declines a day after the precious metal fell over 1.2%. However, price action remains well supported above the 1817.80 level.In the near term, we expect price action to remain trading flat within the 1850 and 1817.80 levels.The Stochastics oscillator is currently slipping into the oversold level. This could indicate further near-term downside.Stronger price action is, however, expected on the back of fundamentals. This is especially regarding the Coronavirus stimulus bill.
Stocks Need to Consolidate Now, And Gold Will Anyway

Stocks Need to Consolidate Now, And Gold Will Anyway

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.02.2021 16:00
After Monday‘s great rise, stocks continued without much of a pause yesterday too. Did they get ahead of themselves, or not really? And what about those correction calls, is the alarm over now? As said yesterday, the bulk of the correction in stocks, is over. Is it clear skies ahead now? In my very first 2021 analysis 10 days ago, I‘ve called for a not so rosy February ahead. Last Friday, options expired with stocks taking a plunge, so the current month will get an optical boost. I am looking for higher prices, and no correction around the corner. Gold is in a different situation, still basing and unable to keep intraday gains. Having predictably given up the silver short squeeze boost, the search for the local bottom in largely sideways price action continues. That‘s likely to be the case given that the dollar has stabilized and is peeking higher (before eventually moving to new lows, is still my call). Let‘s dive into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook The daily S&P 500 chart looks bullish at first glance – that‘s the V-shape rebound effect. The volume though isn‘t the greatest really. But what about yesterday‘s upper knot though? It looks to me we‘re in for a period of gains digestion. Right now, stocks look vulnerable to retracing part of the advance. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) relative to the S&P 500 (black line) posture improved, and no dissonance to speak of remains. The 3-month Treasuries though haven‘t relented much, and remain well bid. There is not much willingness in the market place to push short-term yields higher, and that‘s a short-term sign of caution. S&P 500 Sectoral Peek Technology (XLK ETF) has recovered, and gapped higher on quite low volume. Approaching its Jan highs, it‘s not though optically in the strongest position, and would do best if it were able to maintain gained ground. Financials (XLF ETF) have rebounded in a sign of cyclicals‘ strength. It‘s very good for the health of the stock bull market to see them perform this well, spreading strength across other sectors. Broad based advance is the hallmark of health. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold has declined, yet Stochastics hasn‘t turned lower just yet, and the volume of the yesterday‘s trading doesn‘t tip the scales either way. In short, gold remains rangebound for now still, and its range isn‘t really a wide one. Silver did slide, as the margin adjustments also thake their toll. The post-December trend of higher highs and higher lows is intact though, and given my yesterday-presented views about the gold-silver ratio, the white metal has a great future ahead of it still. The economy is recovering, this is an industrial metal, and the mining surplus/deficit optics is favorable to silver outperforming gold in the next upleg of this precious metals bull market. The miners, seniors represented by GDX ETF, are still bobbing near the Dec and Jan lows, yet the pattern is thus far still a basing one. Would it bring another push lower as in late January? Looking at the subsequent demand, I don‘t think such an attempt would have an overly long shelf life. Let‘s overlay the GDX chart with GDXJ, which are the junior miners. The riskier, and generally thinly traded ones. Seeing their attempts to outperform since the late November low, is an tipping sign of the sector not really wanting to keep declining much longer. That‘s another reason why I;m calling for much higher precious metals price before spring is over. Just in time for inflation... From the Readers‘ Mailbag Q: Hey Monica…I had wondered where you'd disappeared to for a while there. Welcome back Regarding silver, the gap from monday's breakout filled nicely there, negating an island reversal. Yet, having been out since july, every time I look at the chart, the upside breakout gap of 21 july stares at me like a gaping crevasse on the everest of uptrend beginnings. I know we are going to the moon and back at some point in the next two or three years, but what do you think is the probability of a short term deflationary spike coming up? Maybe another black swan, which would fulfil the dual function of shakeout the nouveau buying masses, and put my mind at rest by filling the gap before takeoff? A: I am back, fully independent thankfully, and won‘t disappear. Well, as you‘ve seen this week, nothing goes to the moon for there are always willing parties to trim the wings… when it starts to hurt. I am also very bullish about precious metals prices as the conditions facilitating them are in place. But I have publicly called the March 2020 crash as the only deflationary spike we‘re going to see. That year, and this year won‘t bring a new crash either. See how well the financial system recovered from GameStop and silver? Margin debt is still rising, and the Fed won‘t contract any time soon. Inflation – not just food, but all commodities (copper, oil, lumber, base metals, agriculture) are broadly advancing, and a great measure of inflation to come and be felt more broadly. I am not really looking for a giant shakeout in precious metals this year really – and by the shape of things, neither in 2022 pr 2023. But remembering how the $1,050 gap in gold got filled in late 2015, I understand your concern, and say that we would get advance signs of such a potential outcome, which aren‘t present currently though. Summary The stock market recovered, and looks set to be digesting prior gains today. The correction indeed remains largely over in terms of prices. Gold is still bidding its time, which is both expected and desirable for the upcoming bull leg. Patience is the name of the game in precious metals currently still. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals.
USD strengthens on the back of strong economic data

USD strengthens on the back of strong economic data

John Benjamin John Benjamin 05.02.2021 07:29
EURUSD Falls To A Two-Month Low The euro currency continues its descent, now for the fourth consecutive session. The declines accelerated following two days of subdued price action earlier this week.The current pace of decline opens the downside target to the 1.1900 level of support. But in the near term, the common currency could reverse losses.A retest of the 1.2050 level to establish resistance will be ideal.This will also potentially confirm the downside as the Stochastics oscillator is very oversold under current market conditions.GBPUSD Rebounds On BoE Meeting The British pound sterling reversed losses in one single session, intraday. Price action posted strong gains following the BoE coming out slightly hawkish than expected on negative rates.As a result, the GBPUSD was back near the ascending wedge breakout level of 1.3678.While this coincides with the Stochastics oscillator recovering from just off the oversold conditions, prices are struggling to breakout higher.Therefore, if the GBPUSD fails to move above 1.3678 then we could expect prices to continue to drift lower.But with the recent swing low forming near 1.3585, we could expect this level to hold in the near term.Oil Rally Takes A Pause WTI Crude oil prices are trading weaker following the previous strong bullish sessions.Price action is reversing gains after testing the 56.00 level. The declines could, however, see near term gains once again.For the moment, the bullish bias remains in place. If the declines continue, then oil prices could be testing the 53.77 level of support in the near term.Establishing support here could potentially confirm the long term bias to the upside.For the moment, above 56.00, oil prices could be testing the 57.35 level of resistance next.Gold Prices Fall To A Two-Month Low The precious metal is down over two percent on an intraday basis.The declines accelerated after the precious metal lost the footing near 1817.89 support.The sharp declines could see the precious metal touching down to 1764.22 where the next key support level resides. This will put gold prices down to a three-month low.The formation of a lower low will no doubt change the bias in gold prices to the downside.However, we expect the declines to hold near the 1764.22 level in the medium term.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Bulls on Stock Parade

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 05.02.2021 15:34
Is this week, dare I say, the first "normal" week of 2021? Let’s take a look at what has happened in January so far in what is supposed to be a more prosperous year than 2020.Six days into 2021, the Capitol saw its first insurrection since 1814.Two weeks later, we inaugurated a new president.A week later, we saw class warfare before our eyes when Redditors from the "WallStreetBets" subreddit took on hedge funds and won.After declining in two of the last four weeks, the indices haven't seen a single down day all week. If Friday (Feb. 5) futures stay the same, we might not have a down day all week.Bulls on parade.Good morning investors, thanks for finally caring about strong earnings and not paying attention to GameStop (GME) (that was fun while it lasted, though).The sentiment is rosey and for good reason. Earnings continue to crush. Some form of President Biden’s aggressive stimulus could also pass within days. Jobless claims fell for the third consecutive week and hit the lowest level since the end of November, labor market data looks strong, vaccines hit a record daily total on Thursday (Feb. 4) and could be distributed at CVS and Walgreens within days, and the 5-to-30 year treasury curve was the highest its been since March 2016.Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also just applied to the FDA for emergency use authorization for its one-dose vaccine. If approved, it could be game-changing.Happy days.My overheating and trading concerns in an overbought market remain, though, and have returned with a vengeance. I liked where many sectors and indices ended last week for potential BUY opportunities. This blazing win streak, though, is teetering on the edge of mania and overvaluation again.The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 hit new record closes yet again.Are we in a bubble? Maybe.I worry about complacency and overvaluation.The S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E ratio is back to nearly 22 and well above the 10-year average of 15.8. The Russell 2000 is also back at a historic high above its 200-day moving average. Tech stock valuations are even approaching dot-com bust levels, once again.According to a recent Bank of America survey of 194 money managers, bullishness on stocks is at a three-year high, and the average share of cash in portfolios, which is usually a sign of protection from market turmoil, is at the lowest level since May 2013.The market needed last week’s pullback, but it was nothing but a minor cooldown period thanks to Reddit in the grand scheme of things.We are long overdue for a correction. Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).Well, hello, we haven’t seen one since last March!A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Four Days in a Row and Counting for the S&P 500... Figure 1- S&P 500 Large Cap Index $SPXHave you ever rooted so hard for a team that can frustrate and excite you at the same time? Rip off a 4-day winning streak, followed by a slump of losing 5 out of 6 games, then come back with another winning streak? Does it have you questioning if the team is outstanding or a mirage?If I could compare the S&P 500 to a team, it would probably be the Philadelphia 76ers.This index looks like a winner and seemingly rips off multiple-day winning streaks weekly. Now and then, though, it can show inconsistency, make you scratch your head, and go on a frustrating losing streak.Two weeks ago, the S&P was hovering around a record-high. Its forward P/E ratio was the highest since the dot-com bust, and the RSI consistently approached overbought levels.By the end of last week, it was nearly oversold.Now, this week? Its RSI is back above 60, we’re at another record high, we’re on a four-day winning streak (which could be five if futures remain in the green), and we’re at a forward 12-month P/E ratio at nearly 22 and well above the 10-year average of 15.8.I said before that once the S&P approaches a 3600-level, we can start talking about it as a BUY. Well, the index came pretty darn close to it last week, but it wasn’t enough for me. Despite this week’s rally, short-term concerns remain, with long-term optimism.To me, because of the RSI and how the index has traded, it remains a HOLD. But we’re teetA short-term correction could inevitably occur by the end of Q1 2021, but for now, I am sticking with the S&P as a HOLD.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the S&P, the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
The profit maze of Silver

The profit maze of Silver

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 07.02.2021 10:35
We took for many months the stands of a Permabull in Silver and still do. Our primary call for acquiring physical Silver might find some hurdles. You might not get any. When we started in March of last year at the price of US$12 to urge for acquiring physical Silver holdings, we already experienced the vast percentage difference between the spot price and the actual acquisition price of Silver. This phenomenon persists to the present day. And what to do if one can’t purchase real Silver anymore?We look at the markets primarily from the perspective of risk. As long as you do not have too dramatic pullbacks (= a homogeneous equity curve), you can always recover from a temporary setback. After all, not every investment idea might work out.If Silver’s physical acquisition should come to a halt, we find mining stock ownership to be an excellent second choice.Here is why. Leveraged positions like ETFs, futures, and options allow special restrictions made by brokers and clearinghouses tied with their firms’ positions. Large players like this can also go belly up, especially in six sigma events. In that case, it is essential to find liquidity, the ability to transfer positions from one broker/clearinghouse to another, and mostly to liquidate positions. An option they may deny you through their regulative powers.Sil, Global Silver Miners ETF, Weekly Chart, ETFs might look good, but they aren’t:SIL Global X FDS Global X Silver Miners ETF in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 4th, 2021.  Monthly Chart of Silver, Think long term and win:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 4th, 2021.While Silver’s smaller time frames can be intimidating at times due to their volatility and recent limelight in the news, the larger monthly time frame clearly shows the health of the trend in motion and the long term opportunity.With this bigger picture in place, mining stocks will follow the uptrend.Daily Chart, Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, The profit maze of Silver:Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, daily chart as of February 4th, 2021.There is a vast array of choices to participate in mining stocks. You can employ various strategies like buying the market leaders or underdogs, for example. In this field, evaluation can change quickly based on depository discoveries, soil sample quality and many other factors. Another point of consideration is the accessibility of stock depending on the country you are trading from, which exchanges you can access.The above chart depicts the stock price of our sponsor Reyna Silver which we find undervalued and very attractive as a long-term investment. Stocks in this price range have the advantage that not too much of your money is parked long term. And still percentage returns can be substantial. (Disclaimer: Please note that Reyna Silver is the sponsor of our weekly silver chartbook).In this specific case, you can see that there is excellent support at CA$0.98 from a volume analysis perspective, right below where prices trade for a low-risk entry on a long-term time horizon.The profit maze of Silver:While we hold physical Silver in the highest regard to risk-averse wealth preservation (next to Gold and Bitcoin), additional investments in mining stocks are prudent. As a stockholder, you are a part-owner of a company with the acquired rights by law. From all the choices out there to participate in the Silver boom, mining stocks seem to be the ones with the smallest risk potential.With a goal of long term investing and wealth preservation, it is essential to look at investments from a risk perspective rather than leverage.Besides, many mining stocks pay dividends. That additional income flow can be reinvested, and one participates in the 8th miracle of the world: “Compound interest.” Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Will 2021 Prompt A Big Rotation In Sector Trends? - PART I

Will 2021 Prompt A Big Rotation In Sector Trends? - PART I

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 07.02.2021 19:41
An interesting question was brought to my research team recently related to sector trends in 2021 and what may shift over the next 10 to 12+ months.  It is very difficult to predict any future trends that may set up over the next year or longer, but we took the effort to consider this question and to consider where trends may change over time. The one thing my research team and I kept returning to is “how will the global economy function after COVID and how much will we return to normalcy over the next 12 to 24+ months?”  We believe this key question will potentially drive sector trends and expectations in the future.  When COVID-19 hit the globe, in early 2020, a forced transition of working from home and general panic took hold of the general public.  Those individuals that were able to continue earning while making this transition moved into a “protectionist mode” of stocking, securing, preparing for, and isolating away from risks.  This shift in our economy set up a trend where certain sectors would see benefits of this trend where others would see their economies destroyed.  For example, commercial real estate is one sector that has continued to experience extreme downside expectations while technology and Healthcare experienced greater upside expectations.Longer-term Sector Trends – What's Next?When we look at a broad, longer-term, perspective of market sectors, we can see how many sectors have rallied, some are relatively flat, and others are still moderately weak compared to pre-COVID-19 levels.  The top row of these charts, the $SPX (S&P500), XLY (Discretionary), XLC (Comm Services), and XLK (Technology) sectors have all shown tremendous rallies after the COVID-19 lows in March 2020.  We can also see that XLI (Industrials), XLB (Materials), and XLV (Healthcare) have all started to move higher recently.One needs to consider the manufacturing component of technology, S&P 500/Industrial related companies, Technology and Healthcare services/products in relationship to Materials and Material/Chemical manufacturing.  Many of these industries require massive amounts of raw materials in order to build and supply finished products to the marketplace.  This suggests a broad commodity sector rally may be setting up while other stronger sectors continue to rally.Any resurgence of the global economy after nearly a year of efforts to find an effective cure vaccine/cure for COVID-19 will likely prompt capital to search out undervalued and strong sector trends.  Given the strength of the NASDAQ & Technology sectors as well as the Discretionary sector recently, we believe a shift this likely to focus on Healthcare, Commodities (Basic Materials, Agriculture and Metals), and certain manufacturing sectors – almost like a resurgence of the manufacturing/industrial economy.SPY Monthly Chart Shows Clear Breakout Rally AttemptWhen we compare the longer-term rally in the SPY to the QQQ (see the two charts below), we can clearly see the SPY has just recently rallied above the YELLOW trend line from the lows established in 2009 & 2010.  These lows represent a critical support/resistance channel for the markets moving forward from the 2009 market bottom.  They also represent an acceleration phase cycle in price when the price moves above this level. Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Throughout almost all of 2011~2020, we can clearly see the price trend stayed below this YELLOW level.  Recently, though, the SPY price has rallied above this level for the first time since early 2011.  This suggests a broad SPY rally as initiated and that further upside price trending is likely as long as prices stay above the YELLOW support level.  If this level fails in the future, then a larger downside price trend may prompt a deeper price correction.The important factor for this chart is the recent rally above the YELLOW support channel.  The resurgence of the global economy and global central bank support may be prompting a very strong upward price phase – something we have not seen in more than a decade.QQQ Has Continued A Very Strong Rally Since 2009Comparing the same levels of the SPY chart to the QQQ chart presents a very different picture.  The QQQ price activity has, almost continually, stayed above the same YELLOW support/resistance level originating from the 2009 bottom.  This suggests that the strength of the technology sector, a major component of the NASDAQ, drove quite a bit of upward market expansion over the last 10+ years and is continuing to drive market prices higher.  This incredible trend related to technology services, products, support, and infrastructure has really served as a technological revolution over the past 2 decades.  Yet, will these expectation last if the market changes dynamics?It appears the QQQ is poised to target the $356~$357 level, which would complete a full 200% Fibonacci Measured Move to the upside. If and when that happens, we may see some increased volatility/rotation in the NASDAQ/Technology sector after watching this sector rally more than 100% from the March 2020 COVID-19 lows.Of course, technology will still continue to play a major role in our lives, but we may see these sectors attempt to restructure and re-balance if a new Commodity/Basic Material/Manufacturing phase takes root.  This process may take place over many months or years, but we believe it is very likely given the extent of the rally phases of these sectors and the process of rebuilding a functioning global economy.In Part II of this article, we'll dive deeper into the trends and setups that make this shift in global market sector a real potential for future profits.  Remember, we are not making any call that the market it topping or collapsing from these levels.  We believe the resurgence in the global economy may prompt a restructuring of value in many sectors over the next 2 to 3 years – where Commodities, Basic Materials, and Manufacturing may suddenly become hot sectors as the global economy attempt to rebuild after COVID-19.  This does not detract from the bullish trending in current sectors, it just means many undervalued sectors may become very hot over the next 15+ months.Don’t miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months, which will be an incredible year for traders of the BAN strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Learn how the BAN strategy can help you spot the best trade setups because staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.Have a relaxing Sunday!
Stimulus bets rise as labor market continues to remain weak

Stimulus bets rise as labor market continues to remain weak

John Benjamin John Benjamin 08.02.2021 07:45
EURUSD Snaps A Four Day Losing Streak The euro currency posted gains on Friday, marking an end to four consecutive daily declines. The rebound comes after price reversed near a three-month low of 1.1951.As a result, prices pared losses to close on Friday near 1.2050. This level initially served as support.If price action forms resistance here, then we expect to see the EURUSD trading within the price band of 1.2050 and 1.1951.A breakout from this range will further set the direction.To the downside, the next support level is at 1.1900. To the upside, a strong close above 1.2050 could open the way for price to test the 1.2144 level next.GBPUSD Price Action Invalidates Ascending Wedge Pattern The British pound sterling continues to hold a strong bullish momentum. The strong reversal after price fell to a two-week low has now invalidated the ascending wedge pattern.This keeps price action biased to the upside. After Friday’s close, the GBPUSD is trading back close to the three and half year high.The currency pair has also now closed with bullish gains for four consecutive weeks.Still, the momentum is slowing and unless the GBPUSD closes strongly above 1.3755, we expect price action to remain flat near the current highs.Oil Prices Settle Near A 13-Month High WTI Crude oil prices continued to advance with price action closing near a 13-month high. Prices briefly traded close to the next key resistance level of 57.35.We could expect a push higher for the commodity to test this level firmly. Further gains can be expected only on a strong breakout above this level.This means that a reversal near 57.35 will potentially see a possible retracement coming.The previously held resistance level near 53.77 remains the initial downside target for the moment.The price level near 40.55 however marks the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level for the decline from 65.62 in January 2020 through the zero level on 20th April.Therefore, the correction, if applicable could see a stronger pullback.Gold Prices Pull Back From A Three-Month Low The precious metal managed to recover some of the losses on Friday. Price action closed with over one percent gains on the day, after falling to a three-month low previously.The retracement puts gold prices close to the 1817.80 level where resistance could form.Unless we see a strong close above 1817.80, gold prices could hold a sideways range between 1817.80 and the recent lows near 1784.81.Despite the current pullback, gold price closed on a bearish note for the week. Therefore, a continuation to the downside cannot be ruled out.
More Than a Snapback Rally in Gold As Stocks Keep Marching

More Than a Snapback Rally in Gold As Stocks Keep Marching

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.02.2021 16:30
Stock bulls aren‘t wavering, and the upswing continues without a pause. Is the move (still) in balance with the relevant markets as one catches up to the other, or is a digestion of prior sharp gains nearby? It didn‘t come earlier this week, and in today‘s article, I‘ll lay down the rising probabilities of seeing at least a short-term pause in the stellar pace of gains since Monday. Gold pause gave way to selling pressure yesterday, spurred to a degree by the post-Monday‘s trading action. As both metals declined by around 2.5%, this move probably appears overdone to more than a few. Me included, as I called it a kneejerk reaction before yesterday‘s close. In today‘s analysis, I‘ll demonstrate why precious metals investors shouldn‘t be afraid of a trend change – none is happening. Let‘s dive into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook Stocks continue higher without stopping, and the daily volume rose a little. The bulls are strong, and took prices almost to the upper Bollinger Bands border amid positive moves in CCI and Stochastics. The daily of daily increases looks set to slow down as minimum though – starting today. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) are still pushing higher. While I ignored Tuesday‘s and Wednesday‘s upper knot, yesterday‘s one is arguably a more respectable one, and that‘s because of the drying volume. It wouldn‘t be unimaginable to experience HYG to pause shortly, which would support my prior assessment about SPX. High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio with S&P 500 overlaid (black line) shows that the two are tracking each other tightly in recent days. Actually, stocks are reaching for the leadership position, which given their performance since the start of November is very short-term suspect (stocks have lagged a little relative to the credit markets, and now they‘re trying to lead). That‘s yet another reason why to be cautious about (at least today‘s) trading – and for all the coming days, you know now where to find my daily analyses. Russell 2000 and S&P 500 Smallcaps aren‘t weakening vs. the 500-strong index in the least, which means that the stock bull market continues unabated. It also disproves the recent significant correction ahead calls on the internet that aren‘t hard to come by. Here we are after Friday‘s bloodbath that I called as out of whack with the internals, here we are at new index highs, this soon. In yesterday‘s analysis, I presented the value to growth ratio‘s message of the rotation from tech into value as value having to try once again. Technology (XLK ETF) had a strong week, so let‘s inspect its performance vs. the smallcaps – see the above chart. It shows that the Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) has carved a nice, almost rounded bottom, and is primed for higher values ahead, which also supports the notion of no stock market top ahead. Gold in the Spotlight The yellow metal is attempting to stage a recovery – a modest one thus far as it has been rejected at $1810 earlier. How disappointing is that? We‘ll see at the closing bell (my assumption is that the bulls will prevail today comfortably), but the implications of the moves thus far doesn‘t change my thesis of a break higher from the 5-month long consolidation in the least. It‘s that the technical (not to mention fundamental) factors propelling it higher, are still in place. The caption says it all – we‘re in the closing stages of the prolonged consolidation, and prices will rebound next, as so many preceding sizable red candles had trouble attracting follow through selling, and yesterday‘s candle is in a technically even more difficult position to achieve that. The moving averages aren‘t seriously declining, and I look for the death cross (50-day moving average puncturing the 200-day one) to fail relatively shortly. The Force index in gold agrees that we aren‘t seeing a really serious push to the downside here. Look at the start of 2021, how deep it went back then – we‘ll carve out a nice bullish divergence as I look for gold to get serious about turning up. Yes, the Force index won‘t decline as low as in early January. Silver didn‘t yield all that much ground as the short squeeze got squeezed. The chart is still bullish, and I stand by the calls mentioned in the caption here – a great future ahead for the white metal in 1H 2021 and beyond. Ratios and Miners The gold to silver ratio also continues favoring the white metal, whose this week‘s retreat (post-Monday) didn‘t affect the downward trending values in the least. The miners to gold ratio continues supporting my call of breakdown invalidation leading to a new precious metals upleg. I made the calls along these lines both on Tuesday and prior Monday, when I featured my 2021 prognotications on stocks, gold, dollar and Bitcoin – please do check them if you hadn‘t done so already. Senior gold miners (GDX ETF) are taking a back seat to juniors (GDXJ ETF), andthat‘s a hallmark of bullish spirits returning – first below the surface, then very apparently. While we have to wait for the latter, its preconditions are here. Summary The stock market keeps powering higher, and despite the rather clear skies ahead, a bit of short-term caution given the speed of the recovery and its internals presented, is in place even as the stock bull run shows zero signs of having topped. It‘s time for the gold and silver bulls to reappear after yesterday‘s outsized setback. Crucially, it hasn‘t flipped the short- and medium-term outlook bearish as the factors powering the precious metals bull run, are in place. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals. Thank you, Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.comk@monicakingsley.co * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Will Stocks Be Brady or Mahomes?

Will Stocks Be Brady or Mahomes?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.02.2021 15:46
One week, Reddit bandits take on hedge funds and win, pumping up stocks like GameStop and AMC while the broader market sees its worst decline since October.What a difference a week can make.The indices then see their most significant gains the next week since Joe Biden's election victory and don't see a down day all week.Now we're here- still amid a tug of war between sentiments. For now, though, things are looking rosy. That is, of course, unless you're Patrick Mahomes this morning.Can the market keep up it’s winning streak this week? It’s possible. But I’d be surprised if we don’t see at least one sharp pullback before this Friday (Feb. 12).Can the market keep up its winning streak this week? It's possible. But I'd be surprised if we don't see at least one sharp pullback this week.Despite tailwinds moving the markets right now, such as stimulus progress, an ever-improving vaccine delivery, the possibility of an effective one-dose vaccine from Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), falling COVID numbers, and an improving economic outlook based on consistently falling jobless claims and corporate earnings that continue to crush, I want you to be wary of complacency and overvaluation.Yes, I know I keep saying this. I also know that earnings are on pace to rise by over 20% in 2021. Since 1980, only 12 years have earnings increased by 15% or more. Except for 2018, the market gained an average of 12% in all of those years.But consider some valuation metrics that scream “bubble.”As of February 4, 2021, the Buffett Indicator , or the ratio of the total US stock market valuation to the GDP, was at a level not seen since the dotcom bubble. If you take the US stock market cap of $48.7 trillion and the estimated GDP of $21.7 trillion, we're nearly 224% overvalued and 84% above the historical average.With the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all currently trading at record closes, fears of a bubble are genuine. The S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E ratio is back to above 22 and well above the 10-year average of 15.8. The Russell 2000 is also back at a historic high above its 200-day moving average. Tech stock valuations are also approaching dot-com bust levels.Yes, the outlook is healthy and for good reason. According to a recent Bank of America survey of 194 money managers, bullishness on stocks is at a three-year high, and the average share of cash in portfolios, a sign of protection from market turmoil, is at its lowest level since May 2013.But always remember that when the market gets what it expects, and we’re expecting strength by mid-year, it’s usually a time to sell rather than buy.While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. They are also way more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. How Frothy is Tech Again?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPI remain bullish on tech. Its earnings continue to defy expectations with stocks like Amazon, Alphabet, PayPal, and eBay all crushing estimates last week. I’m also especially bullish on subsectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech for 2021.But please monitor the RSI.The Nasdaq is opening the week at another record high and is continuing to show strength. But there are clear echoes of the dotcom bubble 20-years ago, and the index has been trading in an RSI-based pattern.Let’s break down the Nasdaq since December and how it has reacted whenever the RSI has exceeded 70.December 9- exceeded an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back.January 4- exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year, and declined 1.47%.January 11- declined by 1.45% after exceeding a 70 RSI.Week of January 25- Exceeded an RSI of over 73 before the week, and declined 4.13% for the week.Every single time the RSI exceeded 70, I switched my Nasdaq call to a SELL.Why?The Nasdaq is trading in a precise pattern.The RSI is at around 67.50 so I’m not ready to switch my call again. But I am a bit concerned. Tech valuations, especially the tech IPO market, terrify me. SPACs don’t help either.The ratio of market value to total revenues has also not been this high since the dotcom bust.I still like tech and am bullish for 2021. But for now, I'm going to stay conservative and say HOLD while monitoring the RSI.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.