Tesla

After the market rose to intraday highs on Wednesday (Dec 9), the indices pulled back and closed in the red - largely led by the tech sector.News RecapThe Dow closed 105 points lower for a loss of 0.35%, the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.9% for its worst day since Oct. 30. The tech-heavy index also snapped a four-day winning streak. The small-cap Russell 2000 also fell by 0.82%.Wednesday was a resumption of the rotation out of tech that we saw in early November. Tech led the declines, and in particular, chip stocks such as Lam Research (LRCX) which fell by nearly 3.5%.Other big 2020 winners fell sharply on Wednesday as well such as Tesla (TSLA) which fell nearly 7% and Netflix (NFLX) which fell 3.72%.Stocks reversed downwards after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told Politico that Republicans and Democrats were “still looking for a way forward” on stimulus negotiations.COVID-19 continues to worsen in the U.S, but Tuesday’s rollout of Pfizer’s vaccine in the U.K., has spurred optimism. However, there are some concerns about people with a history of allergic reactions receiving the vaccine.Meanwhile, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may be just days away from approving Pfizer’s vaccine.COVID-19 continues surging to uncontrolled and grim levels. For the first time since the start of the pandemic, the U.S. hit 3,000 deaths in one day.We may have reached a crossroads in the market between mixed short-term sentiment, and mid-term and long-term optimism. In the short-term, there will be some optimistic days where investors rotate into cyclicals and value stocks, and pessimistic days where investors rotate into tech and “stay-at-home” names. On other days, such as Wednesday, the markets may broadly decline, and be led by specific sectors. On Wednesday, for example, the leading laggard was tech - specifically high flying chip stocks.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening, such as small-caps, should thrive.According to Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, “Renewed lockdown restrictions in response to the third wave of the pandemic are likely to weigh on the economy in coming months, but we don’t expect a double-dip…(but) the economy could be booming next spring if enough of us are inoculated against the virus.”Other Wall Street strategists are bullish on 2021 as well. According to a JPMorgan note to clients released on Wednesday, a widely available vaccine will lift stocks to new highs in 2021.“Equities are facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains next year,” JPMorgan said. “We expect markets to be driven by recovery from the COVID-19 crisis at the back of highly effective vaccines and continued extraordinary monetary and fiscal support.”JPMorgan’s S&P 500 target for 2021 is 4,400. This implies a nearly 20% gain from Wednesday’s closing price.On the other hand, for the rest of 2020, and maybe early on into 2021, markets will wrestle with the negative reality on the ground and optimism for an economic rebound.Additionally, since election week, the rally has invoked concerns of overheating with bad fundamentals. Commerce Street Capital CEO, Dory Wiley, advised caution in this overheated market. He pointed to 90% of stocks on the NYSE trading above their 200-day moving average as an indication that valuations might be stretched.“Timing the market is not always well-advised and paring back can miss out on some gains the next two months, but after such good returns in clearly a terrible fundamentals year, I think taking some profits and moving to cash, not bonds, makes some sense here,” he said.Amidst the current fears of a stall in economic recovery with further COVID-19-related shutdowns and no stimulus, it is very possible that short-term downside persists. However, if a stimulus deal passes before the end of the year, it could mean more market gains.Due to this tug of war between sentiments, it is truly hard to say with conviction that another crash or bear market will come. If anything, the mixed sentiment will keep markets relatively sideways.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen. Can the Dow Stay Above 30,000?Since piercing the 30,000 level for a second time last Friday, and reaching record highs, the Dow Jones has largely traded sideways and hovered around the 30,000 level. There are some questions in the short-term as to whether or not the Dow can maintain this level. Outside of the Russell 2000, the Dow may be the index most vulnerable to news and sentiment.Volume has also quietly declined this week as well, which poses doubts on how sustainable the 30,000 level is. Low volume, especially a declining trend in volume, means that there are fewer shares trading. Lower volume also means less liquidity across the index, and an increase in stock price volatility.With so much uncertainty and the RSI still firmly in hold territory, the call on the Dow stays a HOLD.On pessimistic “sell the news” kinds of days, the Dow may have more downside pressure than other indices. Many cyclical stocks that depend on a strong economic recovery trade on this index, and any change in sentiment can adversely affect their performances.It is hard to say with certainty that a drop in the index will be strong and sharp relative to the gains since March - let alone November. But for now, as seen in the last week, I believe that we could be in a sideways holding pattern while investors digest all the news being thrown at them on a daily basis. For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the Dow, the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is a strong option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Major averages hit both all-time intraday and closing highs on Thursday (Dec. 17), riding on vaccine optimism and hopes that a stimulus package could be passed in a matter of days.News RecapThe Dow Jones climbed 148.83 points, or 0.5%, to 30,303.37 for a record close. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit intraday and closing records as well and gained 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. In typical fashion, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 1.30%.Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Thursday (Dec. 17) said that a stimulus deal was closing in. Congress appears to be nearing a $900 million stimulus package that would include direct payments to individuals. However, the package would exclude the partisan issues of liability protections for businesses and aid to state and local governments.Despite the optimistic tone of the day, jobless claims disappointed for a second consecutive week. Jobless claims totaled 885,000 last week, hitting their highest levels since early September. This was also significantly worse than the expected 808,000.An FDA panel officially endorsed Moderna's (MRNA) COVID-19 vaccine. It could officially be cleared for emergency usage as early as Friday (Dec. 18), and be distributed as soon as after the weekend. Upon authorization, government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer (PFE) doses already in distribution.Real estate, materials and health care were the best-performing sectors in the S&P 500, each gaining over 1%. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose 2.6% to lead the Dow higher.Tesla (TSLA) gained 5.32% and will now officially join the S&P 500.We are in the darkest days of the pandemic. On average, the U.S. is recording at least 215,729 additional COVID-19 cases a day . More than 114,200 Americans are also now hospitalized , and over 3,400 new deaths were recorded. According to the CDC Director, Robert Redfield, US COVID-19 deaths are likely to exceed the 9/11 death toll for the next 60 days.While sentiment has been positive over the last two trading sessions, there will still be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news. It’s quite simple really - until a stimulus is passed and the virus is somewhat brought under control, there will be negative pressure on the markets. Even though a stimulus package passing appears to be imminent, time is running short and we may be at a fork in the road.For now, though, hopes that a deal could pass through are sending stocks higher.“Stimulus is still the main driver in the market right now until they get something done, and it does appear there is some motivation on that front to get something done,” said Dan Deming, managing director at KKM Financial, further stating that “the market’s benefiting from that (enthusiasm).”Additionally, Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said that another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before the mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”The overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021 though, despite near-term risks. While there may be some semblance of a “Santa Claus Rally” occurring, the general consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain and focus on the longer-term gains. The mid-term and long-term optimism is very real.According to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen, with cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. Sometimes a broad sell-off based on fear or overheating may occur as well. On other days, there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021-related euphoria. Additionally, there will be days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), when markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. But if we get an early Christmas present and a stimulus package passes, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening, such as small-caps, should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments though, it is truly hard to say with any degree of certainty that a correction will happen or more record high rallies will occur.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible, but it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Please do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! I’m always happy to hear from you. DrivingSmall-Caps (IWM)In typical fashion, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 1.30% on Thursday (Dec. 17). I truly love small-cap stocks in the long-term and this small-cap rally is more encouraging than the “stay-at-home” stock rallies from April/May. This is a bullish sign for a long-term economic recovery and shows that investors are optimistic that a vaccine will return life to relatively normalcy in 2021.I do have some concerns of overheating in the short-term however, especially with the headwinds that still exist. The Russell keeps outperforming no matter what the market sentiment of the day or week is. For example, although the week ended December 11th was an overall down week, the Russell 2000 STILL managed to outperform the larger indices and eek out another weekly gain of 1.02%. While it is remarkable, I do not see how this is sustainable in the short-term.The performance of the Russell 2000 index since early November has been nothing short of staggering. Although the Russell index is composed mostly of small-cap value cyclical stocks dependent on the recovery of the broader economy, and may be more adversely affected on “sell-the-news” kind of days, its hot streak since November has not cooled off in the slightest.Since the start of November, the Russell 2000 has skyrocketed and considerably outperformed the other major indices. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), in comparison to the ETFs tracking the Dow (DIA), S&P (SPY), and Nasdaq (QQQ), has risen 28.62%. This is at least 13% higher than all of the other major indices. Since the start of December, the Russell ETF has also outperformed the other ETFs between 4%-5%.However, when looking at the chart for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , it becomes pretty evident that small-cap stocks have overheated in the short-term. These are stocks that will experience more short-term volatility. Stocks don’t always go up but the Russell’s trajectory since November has been essentially vertical. The IWM ETF keeps hitting record highs while the RSI keeps overinflating way past overbought levels. I would SELL and trim profits for the short-term but do not fully exit these positions. A stimulus could be imminent and send these stocks soaring more. But if there is a pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery. DivingUS Dollar ($USD)The U.S. Dollar’s plunge continues to its lowest levels in years. I called the return to oversold levels this week despite the currency piercing the 91-level last Wednesday (Dec. 9). I knew it was “fool's gold” and not the sign of any sort of breakout. I have been calling the dollar’s weakness for weeks despite its low levels, and I expect the decline to continue.For the first time since April 2018, the world’s reserve currency is now trading below 90.Why did the dollar plunge so much on Thursday (Dec. 17)? You can thank the Fed! After the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone and reassurance on Wednesday (Dec. 16) that it won’t be soon tapering its bond purchases, bearish traders took this as a sign to continue selling the dollar.“The latest blow to the dollar came from the Fed, which vowed not to touch policy even if the outlook for the U.S. economy brightens as it now expects,” said Joe Manimbo , senior analyst at Western Union Business Solutions.After hitting a nearly 3-year high in March, the dollar has plunged in excess of 13%.Meanwhile, other currencies continued strengthening on Thursday (Dec. 17), relative to the dollar:The euro rose 0.6% to $1.2270, hitting its highest level versus the dollar since April 2018. The euro is up more than 9% year to date.The dollar fell to a more-than-three-year low versus the Japanese yen and declined 0.4% to ¥103.07.The British pound was up 0.5% at $1.3575 - its highest since April 2018.Both the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar each gained 0.6% versus the US dollar.The US dollar was off 0.1% vs. the Canadian dollar.After briefly rising above an oversold RSI of 30 last week, the dollar’s RSI is at an alarmingly low 22.96. The dollar is also significantly trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.Many believe that the dollar could fall further too.If the world returns to relative normalcy within the next year, investors may be more “risk-on” and less “risk-off,” meaning that the dollar’s value will decline further.Additionally, because of all of the economic stimulus and seemingly imminent additional stimulus, the dollar’s value has declined and could have more room to fall. With a dovish Fed and record low-interest rates projected to remain this low for at least another two years, the dollar may not appreciate again for a very long time.While the dollar may have more room to fall, this MAY be a good opportunity to buy the world’s reserve currency at a discount - at least for a quick short-term trade. The low RSI reflects this.But I just have too many doubts on the effect of interest rates this low, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation to be remotely bullish on the dollar’s prospects over the next 1-3 years.For now, where possible, HEDGE OR SELL USD exposure.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Quick UpdateDear readers, before we get into today’s news and stock analysis and because I’ve been receiving many questions from you, I’d like to first clarify what I mean by BUY, SELL, or HOLD. Here, I am largely referring to outperforming the S&P 500. When the conditions favor adding risk and buying the U.S. market overall, I will be issuing an "alert." I am not sure yet whether I will be moving to entry prices or target prices & stop losses, however, I have discussed this internally with the team at Sunshine Profits. In the current market environment, when fundamentals have essentially fallen to the wayside, I prefer to invest directionally rather than being married to certain levels in the market. In my view, trading with specific figures in mind can hurt long term returns if you do not let your winners run and cut your losers fast. I do update my calls daily, though, and any changes will be highlighted! Thank you again for being such great readers - I truly value your trust. Stay tuned for updates and let me know if you have any other questions!Let’s begin Monday by reviewing what happened at the close of last week.Volatile trading occurred on Friday (Dec. 18), with Congress struggling to close out a stimulus package, causing stocks to slip from record highs.News RecapThe Dow Jones fell 124.32 points, or 0.4%, to 30,179.05. At its session low, the index fell more than 270 points. The S&P 500 also dipped 0.4% and snapped a three-day winning streak. The Nasdaq fell only 0.1%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.41%.While Congress claims to be on the brink of a $900 billion stimulus deal , it is working against time. In public, leaders are speaking optimistically that a deal will pass, however, there are last-minute partisan disputes on direct payments, small business loans, and a boost to unemployment insuranceThere was an unusually large amount of trading volume on Friday (Dec. 18) as Tesla (TSLA) was set to officially join the S&P 500 after the closing bell. Tesla is being added to the index in one fell swoop, marking the largest rebalancing of the S&P 500 in history. After surging 700% in 2020, from day 1, Tesla will be the seventh-largest company in the S&P in terms of market cap.The FDA officially approved Moderna’s vaccine for emergency use. Government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer (PFE) doses already in distribution.Despite Friday’s (Dec. 18) losses, the indices closed out the week with mild gains. The Dow closed up 0.4%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.3%, and the NASDAQ closed up 3.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 continued its strong run as well and gained 2.5% for the week.Meanwhile, the pandemic has reached its darkest days and is hitting unforeseen and unprecedented numbers . The U.S. shattered the previous record of daily deals on Wednesday (Dec. 16), recording over 3,600 deaths. As of Friday (Dec. 18), the country has also now surpassed 17 million confirmed cases, with death totals soaring past 300,000. California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Texas alone reported more than 1,000 deaths in the past week.While the general focus between both investors and analysts appears to be on the long-term potential in 2021, there are certainly short-term concerns. Inevitably, there will be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news. For now, though, the main catalyst is the stimulus package. If a stimulus package is passed before Christmas, the markets could benefit. If it doesn’t, markets will drop. Time is running short and we may be at a fork in the road.According to Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before the mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”However, despite near-term risks, the overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021, especially for the second half of the year. While there may be some short-term worries, the consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain and focus on the longer-term gains. Although the economic recovery could stutter in the early half of the year, the general focus is on the second half of the year when we could potentially return to normal. Many analysts expect double-digit gains to continue in 2021, with strategists in a CNBC survey expecting an average 9.5% rise in 2021 for the S&P 500.Additionally, according to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen, with cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. Sometimes a broad sell-off based on fear or overheating may occur as well. On other days, there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021-related euphoria. Additionally, there will be days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), when markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. But if we get an early Christmas present and a stimulus package passes, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.Despite the optimistic potential, the road towards normalcy will hit inevitable speed bumps. While it is truly hard to say with conviction that a short-term rally or bear market will come, I do believe that some consolidation and a correction could be possible in the short-term on the way towards another strong rally in the second half of 2021.Outside of economic damages and an out-of-control virus, the market itself is flashing potential signs of over-optimism and euphoria. In its most recent survey, for example, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) found that 48.1% of investors identified as being bullish - well above the historical average of 38%. With an overabundance of cocky, euphoric, and optimistic investors, the market becomes more vulnerable to selling pressure. Corrections are very common though. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). Because there has not been one since the lows of March, we could be due for one in the early part of 2021.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction in early 2021 is very possible, but I do not believe, with certainty, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen. Has the Nasdaq Officially Overheated?Don’t ever let anyone tell you “this time is different” if fears of the dot-com bubble are discussed. History repeats itself, especially in markets. I have many concerns about tech valuations and their astoundingly inflated levels. The recent IPOs of DoorDash (DASH) and AirBnB (ABNB) reflect this. I believe that more pullbacks along the lines of Wednesday, December 9th’s session could inevitably come in the short-term.Pay close attention to the RSI. While an overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, I called keeping a very close eye on this for the Nasdaq. The December 9th Nasdaq pullback, after it exceeded a 70 RSI, reflects that.The RSI is now above 70. Monitor this . With unstable volume to start the week on the horizon, as Tesla officially joins the S&P 500, I am calling for some short-term volatility. I did not make a conviction call last week but I am not making that mistake again. Because the RSI is officially above 70, and because I foresee unstable volume thanks to Tesla, take profits and SELL some shares, but do not fully exit .While tech has overheated, there is still some very real long-term optimism based on stimulus hopes and 2021’s potential.Furthermore, on pessimistic days, having Nasdaq exposure is crucial because of the “stay-at-home” trade.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The S&P 500 closed down for the third consecutive day (Dec. 22), despite Congress’s long-overdue approval of an economic stimulus package.News RecapThe Dow Jones declined 200.94 points, or 0.7%, to 30,015.51. The S&P 500 closed down for a third consecutive day and fell 0.2%. Reflecting a return to the “stay-at-home” tech trade, the Nasdaq gained 0.5% on the day (Dec. 22). The small-cap Russell 2000 index managed to outperform yet again, rising 1.01%.Congress finally voted on and approved a $900 billion stimulus package to aid struggling Americans. Attached to this bill was also a $1.4 trillion measure to fund the government through Sept. 30. President Trump is expected to sign the bill into law within the next few days.A mutant strain of COVID-19 discovered in the UK weighed on markets for a second consecutive day. While the vaccine(s) could still be effective on this strain, the strain appears to be more contagious than others. The discovery of this virus strain has caused stricter lockdown measures and travel restrictions worldwide.Travel stocks were the laggards of the day due to fears of the new strain of COVID-19. American Airlines (AAL) fell 3.9% and United (UAL) dropped 2.5%. Cruise lines all fell as well. Carnival (CCL) fell nearly 6%, Royal Caribbean (RCL) dropped nearly 3%, and Norwegian (NCL) plummeted 6.9%Apple (AAPL) led the Nasdaq higher as it jumped 2.9% due to investor excitement about their EV plans to challenge Tesla (TSLA) by 2024Mixed economic data came in on Tuesday (Dec. 22). The final reading on Q3’s GDP growth found that the US GDP grew 33.4% on an annualized basis, compared to the estimated 33.1%. On the other hand, US consumer confidence fell for the second month in a row and missed expectations - despite vaccine optimism.COVID-19 has now killed over 318,000 Americans (and counting). The CDC announced that this is now the deadliest year in American history as total deaths are expected to top 3 million for the first time. Deaths are also expected to jump 15% from the previous year. This would mark the largest single-year percentage leap since 1918, when WWI and fatalities from the Spanish Flu Pandemic caused deaths to rise an estimated 46%.Markets have officially stumbled before Christmas and experienced a predictable tug-of-war between good news and bad news. While the general focus of both investors and analysts has appeared to be the long-term potential of 2021, there are some very concerning short-term headwinds.Although there was some anticipation that a stimulus deal could send stocks higher in the near-term, investors may be simply taking profits before the year’s end and rebalancing for 2021. On the other hand, it is very possible that the stimulus package was “too little too late,” and is being overshadowed by a more contagious strain of COVID-19 discovered over the past weekend in the U.K.While nobody predicted a renegade mutant virus weighing on market sentiment, short-term battles between optimism and pessimism were quite predictable.According to a note released on Monday (Dec. 21) from Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli“The market has been in a tug-of-war between the very grim near-term COVID backdrop and the increasingly hopeful medium/long-term outlook (driven by vaccines) – the latter set of forces are more powerful in aggregate, but on occasion, the market decides to focus on the former, and stocks suffer as a result.”Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of market strategists, including myself, are bullish on equities for 2021. It might just be a bit of a bumpy road getting there. I believe that a correction and some consolidation could be very likely in the short-term, on the way towards another strong rally in the second half of 2021. While it is hard to say with conviction WHEN we could see a correction, I believe that the market’s behavior as of late could be a potential preview of what’s to come between now and the end of Q1 2020. There is optimistic potential, but I believe a potential 5% pullback before the year’s end is possible, as well as a minimum 10% correction before the end of Q1 2020.According to Jonathan Golub , Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, choppiness in the economy and markets in the coming months could be expected before a surge in consumer spending by mid-2021. Golub said, “I don’t think that there’s a smooth, easy straight-line story on this...I think for the next three or four months, the reopening process is going to be sloppy.”I believe that the S&P’s three-day losing streak could be an ominous sign of what’s to come in the near-term. I do believe though that this is healthy and could be a good thing.Before Monday’s (Dec. 21) session, I had warned that the market was flashing signs of over-optimism and euphoria. In its most recent survey, for example, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) found that 48.1% of investors identified as being bullish - well above the historical average of 38%.A correction could be just what this market needs. Corrections also happen way more often than people realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). I believe we are overdue for one because there has not been a correction since the lows of March. This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what I believe will be a great second half of the year.The mid-term and long-term optimism are very real, despite the near-term risks. The passage of the stimulus package only solidifies the robust vaccine-induced tailwinds entering 2021, specifically for small-cap value stocks.In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, such as Tuesday (Dec. 22), the “pandemic” market trend will happen - cyclical and COVID-19 recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. On other days, a broad sell-off based on virus fears may occur as well. Additionally, there will also be days where there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021 related euphoria. And finally, there will be days (and in my opinion, this will be most trading days), that will see markets trading largely mixed, sideways, and reflecting uncertainty.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. But I do not believe, with conviction, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Please do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! I’m always happy to hear from you. DrivingSmall-Caps (IWM)The Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the larger-cap indices and gained 1.01% on Tuesday (Dec. 22). Despite the profit-taking and negative sentiment during Tuesday’s (Dec. 22) session, small-caps didn’t get the memo.I do love small-cap stocks in the long-term and this small-cap rally is more encouraging than the “stay-at-home” stock rallies from April/May. This is a bullish sign for long-term economic recovery and shows that investors are optimistic that a vaccine will return life to relative normalcy by mid-2021.I do have some concerns about overheating in the short-term though. As I mentioned before, I believe that the S&P’s losing streak is only a preview of what could come in the next 1-3 months.According to the chart above for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , it becomes pretty evident that small-cap stocks have overheated in the short-term. Stocks won’t always go up, but the IWM’s trajectory since November has been essentially vertical. The ETF keeps hitting record highs while the RSI keeps overinflating way past overbought levels as the volume shows instability.Since November, the Russell index has been on a run nothing short of astounding. Just look how the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) compares to the ETFs tracking the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq in that time frame. Since November, the IWM has risen nearly 28% and has at least doubled the returns of the ETFs tracking the other major indices.Although the Russell index is composed mostly of small-cap cyclical stocks dependent on the recovery of the broader economy and may be more adversely affected on “sell-the-news” kind of days, its hot streak since November has seemingly not cooled off as much as other indices and sectors.But I believe this will eventually happen in the short-term, and I hope it does for a long-term buying opportunity.In the short-term, small-cap stocks may have overheated and could experience the greatest volatility. SELL and take short-term profits if you can, but do not fully exit positions .If there is a pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery. DivingUS Dollar ($USD)If the dollar rallies at all again soon, do not be fooled.Ever since I called the dollar’s rally past the 91 level two Wednesdays ago (Dec. 9) a mirage, the dollar has declined by 1.25%.I believed it to be “fool's gold” then and I believe any subsequent rally that could come will be “fool’s gold” too.I still am calling out the dollar’s weakness after several weeks, despite its low levels. I expect the decline to continue as well thanks to a dovish Fed.The world’s reserve currency is still trading below 90 and has not traded this low since April 2018. Joe Manimbo , a senior analyst at Western Union Business Solutions, seemingly agrees with me as well and said that “the latest blow to the dollar came from the Fed, which vowed not to touch policy even if the outlook for the U.S. economy brightens as it now expects.”Since hitting a nearly 3-year high on March 20th, the dollar has plunged nearly 13% while emerging markets and other currencies continue to strengthen.On days when COVID-19 fears outweigh any other positive sentiments, dollar exposure might be good to have since it is a safe haven. But in my view, you can do a whole lot better than the US dollar for safety.I have too many doubts on the effect of interest rates this low for this long, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation to be remotely bullish on the dollar’s prospects over the next 1-3 years. Meanwhile, the US has $27 trillion of debt, and it’s not going down anytime soon.Additionally, according to The Sevens Report , if the dollar falls below 89.13, this could potentially raise the prospect of a further 10.5% decline to the next support level of 79.78 reached in April 2014After briefly rising above an oversold RSI of 30 last week, the dollar’s RSI is now at an alarmingly low 27.87. The dollar is also significantly trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.While the dollar may have more room to fall, this MAY be a good opportunity to buy the world’s reserve currency at a discount as the RSI is oversold. But I just feel you can do a whole lot better than the USD right now.I’m not a crypto guy either myself, but Bitcoin’s run compared to the dollar’s disastrous 2020 has to really make you think sometimes….For now, where possible, HEDGE OR SELL USD exposure.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The indices hit record highs yet again to close off the first week of 2021 and weighed unrest, poor jobs data, and further prospects of economic stimulus.News RecapBoth the Dow and S&P 500 closed the week off with four-day win streaks. The Dow climbed 56.84 points, or 0.2%, at 31,097.97. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 3,824.68, and the Nasdaq popped 1% to 13,201.98. The small-cap Russell 2000 declined 0.25%.The Dow and S&P 500 each gained more than 1% on the week, while the Nasdaq gained 2.4%, and the Russell 2000 surged by nearly 6%. These gains to start the year came despite the unprecedented unrest and invasion of the Capitol by Trump supporters on Wednesday (Jan. 6).Despite Democrats winning full control of the Senate, the Dow briefly declined 200 points midday after moderate Democrat Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia told The Washington Post that he would “ absolutely not ” support a round of $2,000 stimulus checks. Manchin mildly walked back those comments later in the day and said he was “undecided,” and not outright opposed to it.The U.S. economy lost 140,000 jobs in December , according to the Labor Department. This is significantly worse than the estimated gain of 50,000 according to economists polled by Dow Jones.The 10-year yield rose to its highest level since March 20, and broke above 1.1%.Coca-Cola (KO) rose 2.2% to lead the Dow higher. The consumer discretionary and real estate sectors each rose more than 1%, lifting the S&P 500. The Nasdaq got a boost from Tesla, which popped 7.8%.The first week of 2021 largely continued where 2020 left off- with turmoil, tension, and a barrage of news. Another 2020 pattern continued to kick off the new year- a resilient market.A week that started off with a sharp sell-off concluded with sharp weekly gains, all-time highs, and a four-day winning streak for the Dow and S&P 500. This is despite the first assault on the U.S. Capitol since 1814, despite COVID-19 cases continuing to wreak havoc, and despite a disastrous jobs report.How could this be?The results of the Georgia election can first and foremost be credited for the market surge.Although tech initially plummeted due to fears of higher taxes and stricter regulations, with full Democrat control of the Presidency, Senate, and House, there is finally clarity and expectations of further spending and government stimulus.Although President-elect Joe Biden had promised to pass a measure for bigger stimulus checks if Democrats secured control of the Senate, comments from West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat, spooked investors for a time on Friday (Jan. 8). Although Manchin briefly walked these comments back, according to Bill Miller, founder of Miller Value Partners , “Nothing is going to get passed if they can’t get the moderates in the Democratic Party, or the Republican Party for that matter, to go along with (further stimulus).”President-elect Biden said Friday (Jan. 8) that a new aid package would be “ in the trillions of dollars .” This comes after Goldman Sachs stated that it expects another big stimulus package of around $600 billion . Value stocks and small-cap stocks have surged as a result of these prospects.Despite the prospect of further stimulus that could heat up the economy, the short-term tug of war between good news and bad news will continue. Many of these moves upwards or downwards are based on emotion and sentiment, and there could be some serious volatility in the near-term. Although markets have kicked off the new year with excitement from the “Blue Wave”, consider this.Stocks have overstretched valuations, the Capitol was invaded, the pandemic is out of control, and the vaccine roll-outs have been clunky at best.Even though the markets saw a nice weekly gain to kick off 2021 and the 10-year treasury is at its highest level in months, a correction between now and the end of Q1 2020 is likely.National Securities’ chief market strategist Art Hogan also believes that we could see a 5%-8% pullback as early as this month.Generally, corrections are healthy, good for markets, and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). I believe we are long overdue for one. We haven’t seen a correction since March 2020. This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what I believe will be a great second half of the year.While there will certainly be short-term bumps in the road, I love the outlook in the mid-term and long-term once the growing pains of rolling out vaccines stabilize. The pandemic is awful and the numbers are horrifying. But despite this, and despite the horrendous jobs report, there is one report released this past week that could be a step in the right direction - the ISM manufacturing data.The consensus is that 2021 could be a strong year for stocks. According to a CNBC survey which polled more than 100 chief investment officers and portfolio managers, two-thirds of respondents said the Dow Jones will most likely finish 2021 at 35,000, while five percent also said that the index could climb to 40,000.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. I don’t think that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen. Can Small-caps Own 2021?Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)Small-caps were the comeback kids this week. Although I believed that the Russell 2000’s record-setting run since the start of November was coming to an end, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) had itself quite a week and rallied 7.35% since January 4th. Small-cap stocks were the most excited from the Democrat sweep in Georgia due to hopes of further economic stimulus on the horizon.I love small-cap stocks in the long-term, especially as the world reopens. A Democrat-dominated Congress could help these stocks too, but in the short-term, the index, by any measurement, has simply overheated. Before January 4th, the RSI for the IWM Russell 2000 ETF was at an astronomical 74.54. I called a pullback happening in the short-term due to this RSI, and it happened. Well now the RSI is back above 74 again, and I believe that a more significant correction in the near-term could be imminent.Stocks simply just don’t always go up in a straight line, and that’s what the Russell 2000 has essentially been between November and December. It’s looked eerily similar this week.What this also comes down to, is that small-caps are more sensitive to the news - good or bad. I think that vaccine gains have possibly been baked in by now. There could be another near-term pop due to further stimulus hopes, but it’s likely that small-caps in the near-term could trade sideways before an eventual larger pullback.I hope small-caps decline a minimum of 10% before jumping back in for long-term buying opportunities.SELL and take this week’s profits if you can - but do not fully exit positions .If there is a pullback, this is a STRONG BUY for the long-term recovery.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

In a surprise twist, the Nasdaq surged by a healthy 4.2%, managing to close the week at an all-time high. What’s happening to tech stocks?Surging, gaining...come again?Wasn't tech supposed to wither away and die thanks to be big bad Democrat boogeymen? Wasn’t the radical Biden tax agenda and regulatory framework supposed to send your favorite tech stocks plummeting? Wasn’t Biden’s tax plan supposed to take an estimated 5-10% off the earnings per share?For now, it seems like the market is putting more of its hopes into Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan and ignoring his tax and regulation plans. As Treasury Secretary and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen claimed, Biden's primary focus is aiding American families (i.e., stimulus, low-interest rates) and, for now, not raising taxes.But nothing is for sure with this stimulus. Republicans will resist it, and some moderate Democrats may do so as well. With Vice President Kamala Harris as the only tiebreaker for a Democrat majority in the Senate, Biden needs all the support he can get to pass this aggressive stimulus.I maintain my view that the market is too complacent, and that we are about to enter a correction at some point in the short-term. It still reminds me of the Q4 2018 pullback ( read my story here ).For one, valuations are absurd. Tech IPOs are a circus, the S&P 500 is at or near its most-expensive level in recent history on most measures, and the Russell 2000 has never traded this high above its 200-day moving average.While stimulus could be useful for stocks in the short-term, it could almost certainly mean the return of inflation too by mid-year. The worst part about it? The Fed will likely let it run hot. With debt rising and consumer spending expected to increase as vaccines are rolled out to the masses, the Fed is undoubtedly more likely to let inflation rise than letting interest rates rise.Others, however, believe that the market reflects optimism that the global economy will recover with the eventual lifting of COVID-related restrictions and more widely-available vaccines. John Studzinski , vice chairman of Pimco, believes that market valuations are strong and reflect expectations of this eventual reopening and economic recovery by the second half of the year.All of this simply tells me that the market remains a pay-per-view fight between good news and bad news.We may trade sideways this quarter- that would not shock me in the least. But I think we are long overdue for a correction since we haven’t seen one since last March.Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.In a report released last Tuesday (Jan. 19), Goldman Sachs shared the same sentiments.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth. Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening, and I welcome your thoughts and questions.We have a critical week ahead with the Fed set to have its first monetary policy meeting of the year and big earnings announcements on the horizon. Best of luck, have an excellent trading week, and have fun! We'll check back in with you all mid-week. Are We in a Tech Bubble or Not?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPSome of the hottest performing tech stocks announce earnings this week such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA) (yes I consider Tesla more of a tech stock than a car stock), and more.Pay very close attention.Although I am bullish on specific tech sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech for 2021, I’m concerned about the mania consuming tech stocks.Tech valuations, and especially the tech IPO market, terrify me. It reminds me a lot of the dot-com bubble 20-years ago. Remember, the dot-com bubble was a major crash in the Nasdaq after excessive speculation and IPOs sent any internet-related stock soaring. Between 1995-2000 the Nasdaq surged 400%. By October 2002, the Nasdaq declined by a whopping 78%.I have no other words to describe it besides the Nasdaq right now as a circus. Will the bubble pop now? That remains to be seen. But the similarities between now and 2000 are striking.I am sticking with the theme of using the RSI to judge how to call the Nasdaq. An overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, but with the Nasdaq, this appears to have been a consistent pattern over the last few weeks.The Nasdaq pulled back on December 9 after exceeding an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back again after passing 70 again around Christmas time. We also exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year, and what happened on the first trading day of 2021? A decline of 1.47%.The last time I changed my Nasdaq call from a HOLD to a SELL on January 11 after the RSI exceeded 70, the Nasdaq declined again by 1.45%.The Nasdaq has an RSI of around 72 again, and I’m switching the call back to SELL. The Nasdaq is trading in a precise pattern and I am basing my calls on that pattern.I still love tech and am bullish for 2021. But I need to see the Nasdaq have a legitimate cooldown period and move closer to its 50-day moving average before considering it a BUY.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Stocks keep cooling off at their highs, and calling for a correction still seems to be many a fool‘s errand. Does it mean all is fine in the S&P 500 land? Largely, it still is.Such were my yesterday‘s words:(…) It‘s still strong the stock market bull, and standing in its way isn‘t really advisable. With the S&P 500 at new highs, and the anticipated slowdown in gains over Friday, where is the momentary balance of forces?Still favoring the bulls – that‘s the short answer before we get to a more detailed one shortly.The anticipaded gold rebound is underway, and my open long position is solidly profitable right now. In line with the case I‘ve been making since the end of January, the tide has turned in the precious metals, and we are in a new bull upleg, which will get quite obvious to and painful for the bears. Little noted and commented upon, don‘t forget though about my yesterday‘s dollar observations, as these are silently marking the turning point I called for, and we‘re witnessing in precious metals:(…) The weak non-farm employment data certainly helped, sending the dollar bulls packing. It‘s my view that we‘re on the way to making another dollar top, after which much lower greenback values would follow. Given the currently still prevailing negative correlation between the fiat currency and its shiny nemesis, that would also take the short-term pressure of the monetary metal(s). What would you expect given the $1.9T stimulus bill, infrastructure plans of similar price tag, and the 2020 debt to GDP oh so solidly over 108%? Inflation is roaring – red hot copper, base metals, corn, soybeans, lumber and oil, and Treasury holders are demanding higher yields especially on the long end (we‘re getting started here too). Apart from the key currency ingredient, I‘ll present today more than a few good reasons for the precious metals bull to come roaring back with vengeance before too long.Finally, I‘ll bring you an oil market analysis today as well. So, let‘s dive into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsA strong chart with strong gains, and the volume isn‘t attracting either much buying or selling interest. That smacks of continued accumulation, with little in terms of clearly warning signs ahead.The market breadth indicators are all very bullish, and pushing for new highs, as the caption points out precisely.The intermediate picture remains one of strength.Credit Markets and TechnologyHigh yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is powering higher significantly stronger than the investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) one. The bullish spirits are clearly running high in the markets.Technology (XLK ETF) as the leading heavyweight S&P 500 sector, keeps charging higher vigorously after not so convincing post-Aug performance. Crucially, its current advance is well supported by the semiconductors (XSD ETF – black line), meaning that apart from the rotational theme I‘ve been been mentioning last Thursday, we have the key tech sector firing on all cylinders still.Gold & SilverLet‘s overlay the gold chart with silver (black line). The disconnect since the Nov low should be pretty obvious, and interpreted the silver bullish way I‘ve been hammering for weeks already. Please also note that the white metal has been outperforming well before any silver squeeze caught everyone‘s attention.Let‘s go on with gold and the miners (black line). See that end Jan dip I called as fake? Where are we now? Miners are no longer underperforming, and the stage is set for a powerful rise.Just check the gold miners to silver miners view to get an idea of how much the white metal‘s universe is leading everything gold. Another powerful testament to the nascent bull upleg in the precious metals.Continuing with gold and long-term Treasuries (black line), we see that the king of metals isn‘t giving in. Instead, it‘s rising in the face plunging Treasuries that are offering higher yields now. No, the yellow metal is decoupling here, as the new precious metals upleg is getting underway. The greenback is the culprit – and again in my yesterday‘s analysis, I called the headwinds it‘s running into. The world reserve currency will indeed get under serious pressure and break down to new lows as the important local top is being made.From the Readers‘ Mailbag - OilQ: "Hi Monica, I am glad I found you after you 'disappeared' from Sunshine Profits! As you had been back then already covering gold and oil at times, I wonder what's your take on black gold right now. A little great birdie told me oil will be the next Tesla for 2021 - what's your take?"A: I am also happy that you found me too! Thankfully, my „disappearance“ is now history. I‘ll gladly keep commenting, in total freedom, on any question dear readers ask me. Back in autumn 2020, seeing the beaten down XLE, I wrote that energy is ripe for an upside surprise. I was also featuring the fracking ETF (FRAK) back then. Both have risen tremendously, and it‘s my view that the oil sector (let‘s talk $WTIC) is set for strong gains this year, and naturally the next one too. Think $80 per barrel. Part of the answer is the approach to „dirty“ energy that strangles supply, and diverts resources away from exploitation and exploration. Not to mention pipelines. Did you know that the overwhelming majority of ‚clean‘ energy to charge electric cars, comes from coal? And that the only coal ETF (KOL) which I also used to feature back in autumn, closed shop? Oil is clearly the less problematic energy solution than coal.These are perfect ingredients for an energy storm to hit the States by mid decade. I offer the following chart to whoever might think that oil is overvalued here. It‘s not – it‘s just like all the other commodities, sensing inflation hitting increasingly more.SummaryThe stock market keeps powering higher, and despite the rather clear skies ahead, a bit of short-term caution given the speed of the recovery and its internals presented, is in place. Expect though any correction to be a relatively shallow one – and new highs would follow, for we‘re far away from a top.The gold and silver bulls are staging a return, as last week‘s price damage is being repaired. The signs of a precious metals bull, of a new upleg knocking on the door, abound – patience will be rewarded with stellar gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals.Thank you,Monica KingsleyStock Trading SignalsGold Trading Signalswww.monicakingsley.comk@monicakingsley.co* * * * *All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Tesla has supported the price of Bitcoin, but it can affect gold as well.The bull market in cryptocurrencies continues. As you can see in the chart below, the price of Bitcoin has recently increased to almost $47,000 (as of February 10). The parabolic rise seems to be disturbing, as such quick rallies often end abruptly.However, it’s worth noting that the price of Bitcoin has partially jumped because of the increased acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate form of currency by the established big companies. In particular, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, has recently published a series of tweets that significantly affected the price of Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and other cryptocurrencies.Furthermore, Tesla updated its investment policy to include alternative assets as possible investments. In the last 10-k filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2021, Tesla stated:In January 2021, we updated our investment policy to provide us with more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity.Importantly, these assets also include gold :As part of the policy, which was duly approved by the Audit Committee of our Board of Directors, we may invest a portion of such cash in certain alternative reserve assets including digital assets, gold bullion, gold exchange-traded funds, and other assets as specified in the future.This means that Tesla wants to diminish its position in the U.S. dollar and to diversify its cash holdings. In other words, the company lost some of its confidence in the greenback and started to look for alternatives. So, it seems that Musk and other investors are afraid of expansion in public debt , higher inflation , and the dollar’s debasement .And rightly so! The continued fiscal stimulus will expand the fiscal deficit even further, ballooning the federal debt. With the budget resolution passed last week, only a simple majority will be needed in the Senate to get Biden’s $1.9 trillion package approved, a majority that Democrats have.Remember also that the U.S. economy added only 49,000 jobs in January , while 227,000 jobs were lost in December (revised down by 87,000!). The poor non-farm payrolls will strengthen the odds of a larger fiscal stimulus and easier fiscal and monetary policies.Hence, combined with the ultra-dovish monetary policy and a Fed more tolerant to inflation, the upcoming fiscal support could ultimately be a headwind for the dollar. Initially, the prospect of fiscal support caused positive reactions on the financial markets, but as the euphoria passes, investors start to examine the long-term consequences of easy money and the large expansion of government spending. Importantly, the larger the debt, the deeper the debt trap , and the longer the zero interest rates policy will stay with us, as the Fed won’t try to upset the Treasury.Implications for GoldWhat does Tesla’s move imply for the precious metals market? Well, we are not observing the kind of rally in gold that we are currently witnessing in the cryptocurrencies sphere (see the chart below). And – given the size of the gold market – it’s unlikely that Musk & Co. could ignite a mania similar to the one seen in Dogecoin. The gold market is simply too big. Even the silver market could be too large for similar speculative plays – as the failure of the recent attempt of a short squeeze has shown.However, the update of Tesla’s investment policy is a confirmation of gold as a safe-haven asset and portfolio diversifier . If other big companies follow suit, and we see an actual reallocation of funds from the U.S. dollar towards gold, the price of the yellow metal will get an invigorating electric impulse .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

As technical traders, we know the importance of following the price charts using proven trading strategies and implementing risk and position management. Here at TheTechnicalTraders.com we are stepping things up a notch by adding options to our trading.By using options, a trader can leverage, hedge positions, and generate income via selling premiums. There are basic options, strategies, and complex, and everything in between. Because of that, I have brought options trading specialist Neil Szczepanski to join our team.I will let Neil introduce himself.Hi everyone!  Neil Szczepanski here.  In case you are wondering it is pronounced “Sus’ pan ski".  Yes, I have roots in eastern European ancestry and I’m first generation.  I love options and have been trading them for many, many years. I like options because you have more ways to be profitable in your trading.  I hate putting on a position and then waiting for the market to go your way.  I want to be in control of my trades and options allows for that.  Also, trading can equal freedom. Think about this: imagine having a job that you can do from anywhere on the planet, work as much as you want, and make as much money as you want?  Imagine having that same job that has no boss breathing down your neck and you call the shots. Well, that is what options trading can be like if you have the skills or access to someone who tells you what and when to buy and sell options contracts.You control your own destiny and I have seen traders start with as little as $500.  Options are especially attractive because they can cater to the small guy with smaller accounts via leverage, allowing them to take on big positions with little capital. On the flip side, the more wealthy sophisticated traders use options to protect and hedge positions and can do more complex strategies that provide even more consistent and lucrative returns with lower risk.No matter what category of options trading you fall into, they work incredibly well, and I will teach you while providing professional trades to execute. Over my next few posts, I am going to explain some more about why trading options can be consistently profitable without having to take on huge risks. Today I am going to talk about why I love swing-trading options and the power of leverage that options provide us traders.MAKE BIG MONEY WITH SMALL ACCOUNTSAs I alluded to above, options give the average trader ways to break into the trading world because of leverage. A little capital can go a long way, and if options trading is done properly you can have significantly less risk than buying the stock outright. You can start small, make smart bets that generate returns, and continue building your account through sound risk management techniques like position sizing, etc.For example, when an underlying stock is super expensive, like Telsa for example, it can be prohibitive for the average person just starting out trading to own that stock… let alone 100 shares! Options give you the ability to control those shares for a specific period of time at a fraction of the price. Each individual options contract lets you control 100 shares of Tesla without having to buy the stock.Sign up now to receive information on the launch of the Technical Traders' options trading courses and newsletter!Let us take a look at a simple example where you want to buy TELSA with an expectation that it will go up at least 5% in value in the next month. If you wanted to buy and hold 100 shares of TESLA, then you would need to spend $80,482 to own those shares. Since all we want to do is to be able to sell the shares and lock in the profit when they go up by 5% or more.   We don’t need to own them but rather just have the right to control them within the options contract timeframe. When we hit our targets, we can sell the option contract and take profit (or take possession/delivery of the underlying shares on contract expiry).  This is called option assignment.Below is a sample of a Tesla options chain, where we can see that the price of the stock is $804.82.  Let’s say you could allocate $2,000 to this trade - you would be able to buy almost 2.5 shares of TSLA. But with $2,000, you could buy an option contract at the money that would let you have the right to buy 100 TSLA shares anytime in the next 30 days at a price of $800/share. With options, you have the ability to take your $2,000 trade and have the same controlling interest in an underlying stock as the person that just spent over $80,000 to buy the stock.So to continue with the TSLA example, let’s say on March 12th TSLA was trading for $844 (the 5% gain you were expecting).  If you bought and sold the stock, you would have made a 5% return of $4,000. If you had bought the option, and then take on the assignment (let it expire) you would have the right to buy 100 TSLA shares at $800 and then turn around and sell them for $844.  Your profit would be $4,400 (less the cost of the option contract), a little more profit than had you bought the shares outright. However, if you look at your return it is more than 225% using options!!! Options enable the small players to trade stocks that would normally be outside of their price range, and this is one of the reasons we have seen an increase in options trading popularity over the last year. In fact, options trading volume has more than doubled since the start of the pandemic.Of course, the above trade is a dream, but the reality can be quite scary. If you took the options trade and TSLA dropped below $800, then your liability starts mounting, however, the loss with owning the stock could be over $80,000 while the total loss with buying the options would be the price you paid for the option which is $1,950.  A big reversal of the stock would be catastrophic in both cases but can be much worse for the stock owner.  So it is important to make sure you trade with proper risk management and protections in place. While the adage “with great power there comes great responsibility” was popularized within a different context, I feel it applies to trading options.I know at this point you are probably thinking what the heck is he talking about and options are WAY too complicated for me.  Don’t worry, I’m going to teach and show you in a very simple and easy way how to trade options.  I am also going to provide trades that limit the max loss per trade, and reduce risk so get ready for some excitement!SWING TRADING OPTIONS IS THE PERFECT SIDE-HUSTLEI love teaching, technology, and trading. I knew early on that these were the things that would drive my career path. At the same time, I had kids to feed so I needed to supplement my income to support my growing family. I was able to achieve this through swing trading options. This allowed me to focus on my career and family while making modest yet consistent income, without having to be glued to my screen every day since swing trades last a few days or weeks.We have all seen the traders with 10 monitors looking at charts all day, making trades, and watching and waiting on every single turn in the market.  I can tell you this is NOT my idea of trading.  I prefer swing trading, where I can set up trades to enter and exit every couple of days or even weeks.  Swing trades are meant to be short duration, and they are not intra-day, so you can set up your trades and manage them when you have time to yourself.I once got advice from a great old friend that sometimes it is wise to look at the animal kingdom to learn how we can improve and live our lives.  There is a lot we can learn from the animal kingdom.  Some of the necessities we need as a human being is food shelter, social acceptance, and security.  As such, we should always have back up plans. Going back to the animal kingdom, if we look at say prairie dogs, for example, we know that they always have two holes.  One is for the main entry and exit and the other is for emergency exits.  Side hustles are just that and swing trading can be a really useful back-up/extra income plan.  It is your second hole!Swing trading is also a great way to gain entry into the world of trading.  It is like dipping your toe in the water to test it before you jump in head first.  With swing trading, you can learn all about options and other financial instruments like futures, CFD, and currencies. The best part about swing trading is it can eventually turn into a full-time job, replacing your regular job.  Now, instead of trading during your free time, you can trade when you don’t have to be at work, leaving you with even more time to enjoy life and family. This is the ultimate freedom.  That is what I have done using several strategies that generate consistent, low-risk gains for 20+ years. One of my favorite strategies that I have developed is called the C-LEAP strategy.  In this strategy, you enter and exit positions once every two weeks.  It is one of the least risky strategies I have ever developed, and I use a simple checklist to follow it. I have had past students generate tens of thousands of dollars every month using this strategy, and I have found it to be easy to learn and very consistent.As you may or may not know, I am preparing some options courses where I will teach basic options trading as well as more advanced strategies. Anyone can learn how options work but the most important thing is what strategy you use.  You also need to know how and when to use the right strategy.  I love teaching people how to trade options and live by two principles when doing so: “Trading can be simple but it is not easy” and "I want EVERYONE to win not just me and in fact, I have no desire to win if everyone else loses.". I am really excited to get to know some of you soon when I launch my LIVE options courses and get you on the path to winning trades!I will also be running The Technical Traders' new service – Options Trading Signals – where I will share my knowledge, model portfolio, a weekly trade, and opportunities report, and trade alerts with subscribers. Look for the launch of my newsletter and courses at the end of February! Make sure you sign up now to keep informed of the launch of my newsletter and courses. You can sign up at www.thetechnicaltraders.com/options-trading.In the next article Neil will keep giving you reasons to love trading options, including how you can trade options with less risk than stocks, how you can better react to volatility with options compared to stocks, and how you can attain consistent profits with lower drawdowns by trading options. So come along with me for the ride and change your life with a new skill trading options!All my best,

TV personality and investor Mark Cuban thinks Ethereum might be a better store of value than Bitcoin. Shark Tank: Ethereum vs Bitcoin In a recent podcast with DeFi blog The Defiant, billionaire investor Mark Cuban suggests Ethereum (ETH) could be the future of stores of value. Cuban, famous for his appearance on the television series Shark Tank, says cryptocurrency’s second token could even outdo Bitcoin (BTC) in that area. Cuban’s comments surprise few who know him. He questioned BTC in the past, and called its price surges bubble-like. Moreover, the sports billionaire also made clear in the podcast his excitement for smart contracts. More generally, however, Cuban is a fan of cryptocurrency. He instructed his basketball team, the Dallas Mavericks, to accept cryptocurrency payments. Moreover, in a recent ask-me-anything (AMA) on Reddit, Cuban revealed his cryptocurrency holdings, which include decentralized finance project Aave (AAVE). The Celebrity Effect Cuban isn’t the only celebrity or billionaire for that matter with a keen interest in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space. As has been thoroughly covered, Tesla’s Elon Musk is an enthusiastic participant in the cryptocurrency world. The eccentric billionaire owner of SpaceX tweets on cryptocurrency’s own everlasting meme, Dogecoin (DOGE). Last year, when Musk tweeted “One word: Doge”, the canine-themed cryptocurrency leapt over 1000%. Indeed, the continuous tweeting by the billionaire on the topic of cryptocurrencies led to a study that looked at the effects of those tweets on crypto-prices. Unsurprisingly, the study found a significant “abnormal effect” by Musk on both DOGE and BTC. Musk’s popularization of cryptocurrencies on Twitter even led to a number of other celebrities, Snoop Dogg among them, endorsing DOGE, approving its mainstream meme status. A New Class Although celebrities potentially treat cryptocurrency space as a vehicle for entertainment, a new class of cryptocurrency owning business is seriously investing in the space. Take MicroStrategy, for example. The business analytics firm made headlines in December for its bid to raise $600 million, all of which was destined for BTC. Recently, it purchased $10 million worth of the top-cryptocurrency in one go. Moreover, Musk’s own Tesla recently revealed in a filing that it scooped up $1.5 billion worth of BTC in January. Celebrities tend to follow the popular culture and vice versa. When Cuban, Musk and Snoop Dogg show interest in the industry, investment advice aside, they reflect public interest. As Bitcoin currently hovers under $50,000, more will likely have something to say. The post Mark Cuban: Ethereum Better Than Bitcoin as Store of Value appeared first on BeInCrypto.

None of Friday‘s intraday attempts to recapture 3,850 stuck, and the last hour‘s selling pressure is an ill omen. Especially since it was accompanied by high yield corporate bondsh weakening. It‘s as if the markets only now noticed the surging long-end Treasury yields, declining steeply on Thursday as the 10y Treasury yield made it through 1.50% before retreating. And on Friday, stocks didn‘t trust the intraday reversal higher in 20+ year Treasuries either.Instead, the options traders took the put/call ratio to levels unseen since early Nov. The VIX however doesn‘t reflect the nervousness, having remained near Thursday‘s closing values. Its long lower knot looks encouraging, and the coming few days would decide the shape of this correction which I have not called shallow since Wed‘s suspicious tech upswing. Here we are, the tech has pulled the 500-strong index down, and remains perched in a precarious position. Could have rebounded, didn‘t – instead showing that its risk-on (high beta) segments such as semiconductors, are ready to do well regardless.That‘s the same about any high beta sector or stock such as financials – these tend to do well in rising rates environments. Regardless of any coming stabilization / retreat in long-term Treasury yields, it‘s my view that we‘re going to have to get used to rising spreads such as 2y over 10y as the long end still steepens. The markets and especially commodities aren‘t buying Fed‘s nonchalant attitude towards inflation. Stocks have felt the tremors, and will keep rising regardless, as it has been historically much higher rates that have caused serious issues (think 4% in 10y Treasuries).In such an environment, the defensives with low volatility and good earnings are getting left behind, as it‘s the top earners in growth, and very risk-on cyclicals that do best. They would be taking the baton from each other, as (micro)rotations mark the stock market bull health – and once tech big names join again, new highs would arrive. Then, the $1.9T stimulus has made it past the House, involves nice stimulus checks, and speculation about an upcoming infrastructure bill remains. Coupled with the avalanche of new Fed money, this is going into the real economy, not sitting on banks‘ balance sheets – and now, the banks will have more incentive to lend out. Margin debt isn‘t contracting, but global liquidity hasn‘t gone pretty much anywhere in February. Coupled with the short-term dollar moves, this is hurting emerging markets more than the U.S. - and based on the global liquidity metrics alone, the S&P 500 is oversold right now – that‘s without the stimulus package. It‘s my view that we‘re experiencing a correction whose shape is soon to be decided, and not a reversal of fortunes.Just like I wrote at the onset of Friday:(…) Would we get a bounce during the U.S. session? It‘s possible to the point of likely. The damage done yesterday though looks to have more than a few brief sessions to run to repair. True, some stocks such as Tesla are at a concerning crossroads, and in general illustrate the vulnerability of non-top tech earners within the industry. Entering Mon‘s regular session, the signs are mixed as there hasn‘t been a clear reversal any way I look at it. Still, this remains one of the dips to be bought in my view – and the signs of it turning around, would be marked by strengthening commodities, and for all these are worth, copper, silver and oil especially.As for gold, it should recover given the retreating long-term yields, but Fri didn‘t bring any signs of strength in the precious metals sector, to put it mildly. Look for TLT for directions, even as real rates, the true determinant, remain little changed and at -1%, which means very favorable fundamentals for the yellow metal. And remember that when the rate of inflation accelerates, rising rates start to bite the yellow metal less.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Its InternalsFriday‘s session doesn‘t have the many hallmarks of a reversal. Slightly higher volume, yet none of the intraday upswings held. The Force index reveals that the bears just paused for a day, that there wasn‘t a true reversal yet. The accumulation is a very weak one thus far, and the sellers can easily show more determination still.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) are plain and simple worrying here. The decent intraday upswing evaporated as the closing bell approached. A weak session not indicative of a turnaround.The high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) performance was weaker than the stock market performance, which isn‘t a pleasant development. Should the bond markets keep trading with a more pessimistic bias than stocks, it could become quite fast concerning. As said already, the shape of the correction is being decided these days.Stocks, Smallcaps and Emerging MarketsAfter having moved hand in hand, emerging markets (EEM ETF) have weakened considerably more over the prior week than both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 (IWM ETF). EEM is almost at its late Jan lows – given Fri‘s spike, watching the dollar is key, and not just here.TechnologyTechnology (XLK ETF) didn‘t reverse with clarity on Friday, regardless of positive semiconductors (XSD ETF) performance. At least the volume comparison here is positive, and indicates accumulation. Just as I was highlighting the danger for S&P 500 and gold early Thursday, it‘s the tech sector that holds the key to the 500-strong index stabilization.Gold and SilverReal rates are deeply negative, long-dated Treasuries indeed turned higher on Friday, yet gold plunged right to its strong volume profile support zone before recovering a little. Its very short-term performance is disappointing, It was already its Tue performance that I called unconvincing – let alone Wed‘s one. I maintain that it‘s long-dated Treasury yields and the dollar that are holding the greatest sway. Rates should retreat a little from here, and the gold-dollar correlation is only slightly positive now, which translates into a weak positive effect on gold prices.But it‘s silver that I am looking to for earliest signs of reversal – the white metal and its miners have the task clear cut. Weeks ago, I‘ve been noting the low $26 values as sufficient to retrace a reasonable part of prior advance, and we‘ve made it there only this late. Thu and Fri‘s weakness has much to do with the commodities complex, where I wanted still on Thu to see copper reversing intraday (to call it a risk-on reversal), which it didn‘t – and silver suffered the consequences as well. Likewise now, I‘m looking to the red metal, and will explain in today‘s final chart why.Precious Metals RatiosThere is no better illustration of gold‘s weakness than in both miners to gold ratios that are bobbing around their local lows, rebounding soundly, and then breaking them more or less convincingly again. The gold sector doesn‘t yet appear ready to run.Let‘s get the big picture through the copper to oil ratio. Its current 8 months long consolidation has been punctured in the middle with oil turning higher, outperforming the red metal – and that brought the yellow one under pressure increasingly more. Yet is the uptick in buying interest in gold a sign of upcoming stabilization and higher prices in gold that Fri‘s beaten down values indicate? Notably, the copper to oil ratio didn‘t break to new lows – and remains as valuable tool to watch as real, nominal interest rates, and various derivatives such as copper to Treasury yields or this very ratio.SummaryStock bulls are almost inviting selling pressure today with the weak finish to Fri‘s session. While the sectoral comparisons aren‘t disastrous, the credit markets indicate stress ahead just as much as emerging markets do. Still, this isn‘t the end of the bull run, very far from it – new highs are closer than quite a few might think.Gold and silver took an even greater beating on Fri than the day before. Naturally, silver is much better positioned to recapture the higher $27 levels than gold is regarding the $1,800 one. With the long-dated Treasuries stabilization indeed having resulted in a short-term dollar upswing, the greenback chart (and its effects upon the metals) is becoming key to watch these days. Restating the obvious, gold is far from out of the woods, and lacking positive signs of buying power emerging.

Stocks spiked higher, but not before going sideways to down prior on the day. And the close to the session hasn‘t been convincing either – does it count as a reversal? In my view, we haven‘t seen one yesterday really, regardless of this correction not being over just yet. There are still some cracks I tweeted yesterday about in need closing first, such as the worrying corporate bonds performance, manifest in the HYG:SHY ratio, or the tech searching for the bottom (it‘s $NYFANG precisely). Quoting from yesterday‘s extensive analysis spanning beyond stocks, metals and the Fed:(…) Stocks have had a great run over the past 4 months, getting a bit ahead of themselves in some aspects such as valuations. Then, grappling with the rising long-term rates did strike.So did inflation fears, especially when looking at commodities. Inflation expectations are rising, but not galloping yet. What to make of the rising rates then? They‘re up for all the good reasons – the economy is growing strongly after the Q4 corona restrictions (I actually expect not the conservative 5% Q1 GDP growth, but over 8% at least) while inflation expectations are lagging behind. In other words, the reflation (of economic growth) is working and hasn‘t turned into inflation (rising or roughly stable inflation expectations while the economy‘s growth is slowing down). We‘re more than a few quarters from that – I fully expect really biting inflation (supported by overheating in the job market) to be an 2022-3 affair. As regards S&P 500 sectors, would you really expect financials and energy do as greatly as they do if the prospects were darkening?Stocks are well positioned to keep absorbing the rising nominal rates. What has been the issue, was the extraordinarily steep pace of such move, leaving long-term Treasuries trading historically very extended compared to their 50-day moving averages. While they can snap back over the next 1-2 weeks, the 10y Treasury bond yield again breaking 1.50% is a testament to the Fed not willing to do anything at the moment. Little does the central bank care about commodities moves, when it didn‘t consider any market moves thus far as unruly.Gold market offered proof of being finally ready for a rebound, and it‘s visible in the closing prices of the yellow metal and its miners. Being more than a one day occurence, supported by yesterday presented big picture signals, the market confirmed my yesterday‘s suggestion of an upcoming gold. It appears we‘ll get more than a few days to assess the legs this rally is made of, facilitating nimble charting of the waters ahead my usual way:(…) Just as I was calling out gold as overheated in Aug 2020 and prone to a real soft patch, some signs of internal strength in the precious metals sector were present this Feb already. And now as we have been testing for quite a few days the first support in my game plan, we‘re getting once again close to a bullish formation that I called precisely to a day, and had been banging the bearish gold drum for the following two days, anticipating the downside that followed. Flexibility and broad horizons result in accentuated, numerous other portfolio calls – such as long Bitcoin at $32,275 or long oil at $58 practically since the great return with my very own site. We‘re now on the doorstep of visible, positive price outperformance in the gold miners (GDX ETF) as gold prices didn‘t break the higher bullish trend by declining through both the Mar 4 presented supports of my game plan. As I wrote yesterday, if prices move higher from here, they have simply bounced off support, especially given the accompanying signs presented, not the least of which is the dollar getting back under pressure. Make no mistake, the greenback isn‘t in a bull market – it‘s merely consolidation before plunging to new 2021 lows. I have not been presenting any USDX declining resistance lines and breakout arguments, because prices can be both above such a line, and lower than at the moment of „breakout“ at the same time – ultimately, rising and declining supports and resistances are a play on the speed of the move, where pure inertia / deceleration / reprieve doesn‘t break the prior, higher trend. And as I called in summer 2020 the dollar to roll over and keep plunging, that‘s still what‘s unfolding.How does it tie in to commodities and stocks? We‘re not at extreme moves in either, and I see copper, iron, oil, agrifoods as benefiting from the reflationary efforts greatly. Similarly and in spite of the $NYFANG travails, it would be ill-advised to search for stock market tops now (have you seen how well the Dow Industrials is doing?) – no, we‘re not approaching a top that I would need to call the way I did in the early Sep buying climax. This is still the time to be running with the herd, and not against it – you can ignore the noise to the contrary for both the S&P 500 and commodities have a good year ahead. As for precious metals, we might have seen the bottom already – and in any case by the current shape of things, I don‘t see it occuring quarters ahead and hundreds buck lower.Bringing up the constant reevaluation of position‘s rationale, market reactions and narratives:(…) It‘s the markets‘ discounting mechanism of the future that counts – just as gold cleared the deflationary corona crash in psring 2020, just as it disregarded the tough Fed tone of 2H 2018, just as it sprang vigorously higher in early 2016 stunning bears in all three cases with sharp losses over many months, or just as stocks stopped declining well before economic news got better in April 2020 or March 2009. Make no mistake, the markets consider transitioning to a higher inflation environment already now (the Fed timidly says that reopening will spike it, well, temporarily they say), when inflation expectations are still relatively low, yet peeking higher based on the Fed‘s own data. Gold is in a secular bull market that started in 2018 (if not in late 2015), and what we‘re seeing since the Aug 2020 top, is the soft patch I called. The name of the game now, is where the downside stops – and it‘s one of the scenarios that it has just happened, especially if gold convincingly closed back above $1,720 without undue delay.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookWe have seen two intraday reversals to the downside yesterday, yet I think the effects would prove a temporary obstacle to the bulls only. Such candlestick patterns usually slow down the advance, but don‘t end it – and that‘s consistent with my yesterday‘s words of most of the downside being already in. Once the 3,900 zone is confidently passed, the bears would have missed the chance to reach below Thursday‘s lows.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) still ilustrate ongoing fragility for they have plunged below their Feb lows. This correction doesn‘t appear to be as totally over just yet, also given the sectoral picture that I am showing you next.Put/Call Ratio and VolatilityOption players clearly aren‘t concerned by yesterday‘s S&P 500 price action, and the VIX is painting a similarly neutral picture – just as the sentiment overall. Very good, we‘re primed to go higher next, from a starting position far away from the extreme greed levels.Technology and ValueThe sectoral divergence continues, and tech is still the weakest link in the whole S&P 500 rebound. The big $NYFANG names, the Teslas of this world, are the biggest drag, and not until these carve out a sustainable bottom (this needn‘t happen at the 200-day moving average really), I can declare this correction as getting close to over. It‘s the cyclicals, it‘s value stocks that is pulling the 500-strong index ahead, with financials (XLF ETF), industrials (XLI ETF) and energy (XLE ETF) leading the charge.Treasuries and DollarNominal, long-term Treasury rates have at least slowed their quickening Feb pace, even in the face of no action plan on the table by the Fed – the dollar moved higher on the realization next, and it‘s my view that once new Fed intervention is raised, it would have tremendous implications for the dollar, and last but not least – the precious metals.Gold and SilverFinally, this is the much awaited sign, enabling me to sound some bullish tone in gold again – the miners are outperforming the yellow metal with more than a daily credibility, which I view as key given the lackluster gold price action before yesterday (absence of intraday rebounds coupled with more downside attempts). It would turn stronger once the gold juniors start outperforming the seniors, which is not the case yet.Coupled with the 4-chart big picture view from yesterday, it‘s my view that the gold market is laying the groundwork for its turning:(…) Real rates are negative, nominal rates rose fast, and inflation expectations have been trending higher painfully slowly, not reflecting the jump in commodities or the key inflation precursor (food price inflation) just yet – these are the factors pressuring gold as the Fed‘s brinkmanship on inflation goes on. Once the Fed moves to bring long-term rates under control through intervention – hello yield curve control or at least twist – then real rates would would be pressured to drop, which would be a lifeline for gold – the real questions now are how far gold is willing to drop before that, and when that Fed move would happen. Needless to add as a side note regarding the still very good economic growth (the expansion is still young), stagflation is what gold would really love.Silver is carving out a bottom while both copper and platinum are turning higher already – these are That‘s the essence of one of my many profitable plays presented thus far – long silver short gold spread – clearly spelled out as more promising than waiting for gold upswing to arrive while the yellow metals‘ bullish signs have been appearing through Feb only to disappear, reappear, and so on.SummaryStocks haven‘t seen a real reversal yesterday, but more backing and filling till the tech finds bottom, appears due. The medium-term factors favor the bulls, but this correction isn‘t over yet, definitely not in time.Now, gold can show some strength – and silver naturally even more. The signs overall favoring a rebound, are appearing with increasing clarity for the short term, and the nearest weeks will show whether we have made a sustainable bottom already, or whether the $1,670 zone will get tested thoroughly. The bulls have the upper hand now.

Days like Tuesday (Mar. 9) are why you buy the dips. It was nothing short of a reverse rotation from what we’ve seen as of late. Bond yields moved lower; tech stocks popped.That’s why I called BUY on the Nasdaq.Inflation fears and the acceleration of bond yields are still a concern. But it looks as if things are stabilizing, at least for one day. The lesson here, though, is to be bold, a little contrarian, and block out the noise.Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that recent sessions have been characterized by accelerating bond yields driving a rotation out of high growth tech stocks into value and cyclical stocks that would benefit the most from an economic recovery. The Nasdaq touched correction territory twice in the last week and gave up its gains for the year.But imagine if you bought the dip as I recommended.The Nasdaq on Tuesday (Mar. 9) popped 3.7% for its best day since November. Cathie Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) surged more than 10% for its best day ever after tanking by over 30%. Semiconductors also rallied 6%.Other tech/growth names had themselves a day too: Tesla (TSLA) +20%, Nvidia (NVDA) +8%, Adobe (ADBE) +4.3%, Amazon +3.8%, Apple (AAPL) +4.1%, and Facebook (FB) +4.1%.In keeping with the theme of buying the dip, do you also know what happened a year ago yesterday to the date? The Dow tanked 7.8%!There’s no way to time the market correctly. If you bought the Dow mirroring SPDR DJIA ETF (DIA) last March 9, you’d have still seen two weeks of pain until the bottom. However, you’d have also seen a gain of almost 36% if you bought that dip and held on until now.Look, I get there are concerns and fears right now. The speed at which bond yields have risen is concerning, and the fact that another $1.9 trillion is about to be pumped into a reopening economy makes inflation a foregone conclusion. But let’s have a little perspective here.Bond yields are still at a historically low level, and the Fed Funds Rate remains 0%.So is the downturn overblown and already finished?Time will tell. I think that we could still see some volatile movements over the next few weeks as bond yields stabilize and the market figures itself out. While I maintain that I do not foresee a crash like what we saw last March and feel that the wheels remain in motion for an excellent 2021, Mr. Market has to figure itself out.A correction of some sort is still very possible. I mean, the Nasdaq’s already hit correction territory twice in the last week and is still about 3-4% away from returning to one. But don’t fret. Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).Most importantly, a correction right now would be an excellent buying opportunity. Just look at the Nasdaq Tuesday (Mar. 9).It can be a very tricky time for investors right now. But never, ever, trade with emotion. Buy low, sell high, and be a little bit contrarian. There could be some more short-term pain, yes. But if you sat out last March when others bought, you are probably very disappointed in yourself. Be cautious, but be a little bold too.You can never time the market.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:There is optimism but signs of concern. The market has to figure itself out. A further downturn is possible, but I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen any time soon.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- That’s Why I Called BUYFigure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPFor the second time in a week, the Nasdaq hit correction territory and rocketed out of it. It saw its best day since November and proved once again that with the Nasdaq, you always follow the RSI. There could be more uncertainty over the next few weeks as both the bond market and equity market figure themselves out. However, the Nasdaq declines were very buyable, as I predicted.If you bought the dip before Tuesday’s (Mar. 9) session, good on you. Be a little bit bold and fearless right now. Take Ark Funds guru Cathie Wood, for example. Many old school investors scoffed at her comments on Monday (Mar. 8) after she practically doubled down on her bullishness for her funds and the market as a whole. After crushing 2020, her Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK) tanked over 30%. Many called her the face of a bubble. Many laughed at her.Tuesday, March 9, ARKK saw its best day in history.I’m not saying that we’re out of the woods with tech. All I’m saying is don’t try to time the market, don’t get scared and have perspective.The Nasdaq is once again roughly flat for the year, its RSI is closer to oversold than overbought, and we’re still below the 50-day moving average, near a 2-month low, and right around support at 13000.It can’t hurt to start nibbling now. There could be some more short-term pain, but if you waited for that perfect moment to start buying a year ago when it looked like the world was ending, you wouldn’t have gained as much as you could have.I think the key here is to “selectively buy.” I remain bullish on tech, especially for sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.Mike Wilson , chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, had this to say about recent tech slides- “I don’t think this is the end of the bull market or the end of tech stocks per se, but it was an adjustment that was very necessary.”I like the levels we’re at, and despite the possibility of more “adjustments” in the short-run, it’s a good time to BUY. But just be mindful of the RSI, and don’t buy risky assets. Find emerging tech sectors or high-quality companies trading at a discount.For an ETF that attempts to correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ directly, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as when small-caps will be buyable, more thoughts on inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Stepping up the ladder to 4000 The stock market keeps steadily going upwards towards the mark of 4000. While there have been and will be inevitable dropdowns below the support of the 50-MA, the overall trend is a clear uptrend. What's important is that the recent turbulence was not as high as the one in September-October - that's a sure sign of true recovery and stabilization of the economy seen in the corporate environment. Having that as a background, let's review particular stocks now. Tweeting down No one can deny Elon Musk the liberty to say whatever he finds necessary on Twitter. That doesn't mean it does any good to the valuation of Tesla, though. Sometimes we may even think that he does it intentionally like that time when he said that Tesla's value is too high - and the stock dropped. The announcement that Tesla may be bought with Bitcoins didn't prevent the stock price from going down. Partially, because of another controversial tweet about unions that the US authorities are considering as a possible threat to labor union participants. On the other side, there was another comment that Elon Musk tweeted - and eventually deleted is that very soon, Tesla may weigh more than Apple. Whatever there is, the support of 550 is there, and it may be reached again. At the same time, a bounce upwards is also possible. For this reason, if you're considering taking a rather risky mid-term position, you may think of buying Tesla - that's if you're ready to hold out enough time until it starts recovering. Because when it does, then from the current $600 to the all-time high of $900 it's a 50% value growth potential. Chinese affairs Alibaba is now under double pressure. First, Jack Ma's company is under direct pressure, scrutiny, and counteraction from the side of the Chinese authorities. Second, strategically, global geopolitical tension between China and the "Western world" growing around the Uyghur region is making the future of Alibaba even more cloudy than it is now. In any case, the stock is now at nine-month lows. Moreover, it trades above the support zone of 215-220. Technically, a bounce upwards is very possible. If it happens, then there is the entire $100 above to meet the all-time high again. Potentially, it's an almost 50% value gain possibility - that may take a few months, though. Therefore, Alibaba may be a risky buy for a long-term strategy. Or, observe it further as fundamentally, grounds are shaking beneath Jack Ma's feet. Beating everyone Shooting up from $50 to $54, Coca-Cola performed as well as never since the start of the recovery. Definitely, it's one of the best performers of the S&P 500 so far. Fundamentally, it has a very good business outlook. Sales are going better and better, most observers suggest it's a buy stock - for a long-term scenario. For the short-term, though, you have to take into account that this growth was really aggressive. Not that it never happens in the stock market but this stock has been oscillating between the two sides of the indicated channel since March. Currently, it's in an upswing. However, observe it closely as it approaches $55. At or slighly above that mark, it may reverse to do a technical correction - in this case, it may go all the way down to $51-52. Therefore, observe possible reversal pattern in the shotrt-term - they may occur at any time. Remember that you can trade stocks not only through Metatrader 5 but also through the FBS Trader app!

Morgan Stanley, a huge investment bank, has warned investors about a “risk” not having Tesla stock. It means that those people who don’t have Tesla shares will regret it as Musk’s company will continue increasing its value. Why is Morgan Stanley so sure about Tesla’s growth? The key reason is Biden’s infrastructure plan, which is positive for Tesla. The US President intends to fight climate change and make the USA carbon-free by 2050. He will spend $174 billion to develop the US electric-vehicle ecosystem, where Tesla is the top performer. “Auto investors face greater risk not owning Tesla shares in their portfolio than owning Tesla shares in their portfolio.” However, Morgan Stanley cautioned that Tesla’s way up won’t be easy and fast. Indeed, this year the carmaker is down about 5%, which is not so bad actually. It can be viewed as a great opportunity for investors to buy Tesla at a lower price. In comparison, Tesla rose 743% last year. So, there is a high chance Tesla will catch up. By the way, last week, Musk’s company has published better-than-expected car deliveries even despite the global chip shortage. Forecasts Morgan Stanley set a price target for Tesla at $880. According to Bloomberg, the average analysts’ target is $651, with 17 buy recommendations, 13 holds, and 12 sells. Technical analysis Tesla has formed the ascending triangle pattern. The ascending triangle pattern shows that bulls are getting stronger. As a result, its slope goes up. If the price manages to break the high of April 5 at $708.00, the way up further to the next round number of $750.00 will be open. In the opposite scenario, the move below the low of March 31 at $640.00 will drive Tesla down to the lower trend line at $600.00. You can trade stocks in the FBS Trader app or in MetaTrader 5!

Another day of tiny S&P 500 gains defying gravity, boosted by overnight price action. Well, liquidity overpowering junk corporate bonds opening with a bullish gap only to partially close it. With some credit market hints at deterioration present, the yen carry trade is getting a new lease on life today, and that‘s generally bullish for risk-on assets such as stocks – but not really for precious metals.With all the Fed support, the Powell bid is in, affecting „traditional“ sectoral dynamics of rotation. Value is probably about to feel the heat if you look at the very long lower knot in financials (XLF ETF) yesterday. Yes, this interest rate sensitive sector still rose in the face of long-dated Treasuries‘ gains. Needless to say, technology loved that, and its heavyweights ($NYFANG) keep driving the sector up. It looks to be a question of time before Tesla (TSLA) joins – Square (SQ) already did.The key question is the rotation‘s degree – now that the yields appear ready to retreat still a little more (the 10-year yield appears targeting the low 1.50% figure if not declining further), which is what technology anticipates even though utilities and consumer staples have been dragging their feet a little lately. But value stocks aren‘t selling off in the least (yet?). Is the TINA still strongly in effect when those stock market segments that could have been expected under more stringent monetary policy to be sold, aren‘t no more? Rising tide lifting really all boats – in stocks.Gold has retreated from yesterday‘s almost $1,760 highs accompanied by continued miners‘ outperformance. That‘s likely on account of the yen getting under pressure today, even though gold defended the Mar 08 bottom in spite of $USDJPY peaking in the closing days of Mar. The yellow metal is still sensitively reacting to the nominal yield moves, which are serving as a tailwind – both in the short run and when you zoom out and add copper into the picture (final chart of yesterday‘s analysis).One of the key things that I am still waiting for before declaring the gold bottom to be absolutely in, is its run above the key $1,760s or even better above $1,775 level. Let‘s though first watch for the miners not running out of steam.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 keeps hugging the upper border of Bollinger Bands, yet the willingness to trade at these extended levels has slightly returned yesterday. Hard to time any bear raid in these circumstances really.Credit MarketsVery tight correlation indeed as the high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio keeps tracking the stock market moves. Not even the HYG volume picked up yesterday, making it impossible to call for a turnaround as investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) keep rising in sympathy with TLT.Technology and ValueTech (XLK ETF) sprang to new highs on TLT erasing its Wednesday‘s losses while value again kept gained ground. Broad-based advance not pointing to much downside really unless $NYFANG turns in earnest.Gold and SilverGold turned strongly higher on the retreat in rising nominal yields (even as inflation expectations ticked lower yesterday) and the yen tailwind, but the volume behind the rally off the second imperfect bottom, is quite weak overall (concerning).Silver joined in yesterday‘s party, and both copper and platinum moved higher as well. Seeing the white metal not spiking yesterday is actually a positive sign of the precious metals upswing health, daily woes notwithstanding.Crude OilPrecious few directional signals in oil, yet higher prices are still favored by the oil index ($XOI). This consolidation is still relatively young, and not even a crash to roughly $52.50 would break the uptrend.SummaryS&P 500 keeps consolidating in a vulnerable and stretched position, yet offers no signs of an immediate retracement of a portion of prior gains. The current setup is unfavorable for short-term oriented (bullish leaning) traders who prefer higher signal clarity to the tight correlation we‘ve seen this week.After yesterday‘s fireworks, miners hold the key in today‘s session as the $1,760s are still a tough nut to crack – the precious metals‘ upswing health will be tested.

S&P 500 spurted higher after prior days of tiny gains. Still lining up the upper border of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, stocks keep defying gravity. But the corporate credit markets are sending a gentle warning sign as they failed to move higher in unison on Friday. Given the Fed support and liquidity injections talked on Friday:(…) the Powell bid is in, affecting „traditional“ sectoral dynamics of rotation. Value is probably about to feel the heat if you look at the very long lower knot in financials (XLF ETF) yesterday. Yes, this interest rate sensitive sector still rose in the face of long-dated Treasuries‘ gains. Needless to say, technology loved that, and its heavyweights ($NYFANG) keep driving the sector up. It looks to be a question of time before Tesla (TSLA) joins – Square (SQ) already did.The spanner in the works proved to be long-dated Treasuries as these gave up all intraday gains, and closed in a non-bullish fashion. The retreat in rising yields is running into headwinds, much sooner than the 10-year one could reach the low 1.50% figure at least. Value stocks and cyclicals such as financials appear calling it out, and both rose on Friday – and so did industrials and technology, all without tech heavyweights‘ help. Utilities and consumer staples went mostly sideways, disregarding the danger of yields about to rise again.The rotation simply isn‘t much there, and the TINA trade isn‘t letting much air to come out of the S&P 500 sectors that would be expected to sell off in a more relaxed monetary policy. Treasury holders keep demanding higher rates, disregarding the soft patch in inflation expectations since mid-Mar. And they‘re right in doing so, for the PPI missed badly on Friday – the development I had been anticipating since mid-Feb.Inflation in the pipeline is one of the reasons behind gold‘s resilience – and its continued rebound off the imperfect double bottom test.While the yellow metal‘s candlestick on Friday mirrors the USD/JPY one, the miners erased opening losses in a bullish show of outperformance. Given the continued consolidation in commodities keeping a partial lid on silver, that‘s bullish – gold appears sensing the upcoming pressure on the Fed to act once yields reach levels high enough to cause havoc across the markets, starting with stocks, just as I described on Mar 29.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsS&P 500 keeps pushing higher, into the upper border of Bollinger Bands that are now widening. Taking into account prior week‘s Easter-shortened trading, the weekly volume behind the upswing just in, is considerably lower than before – and that‘s not bullish.Market breadth indicators aren‘t arrayed in an overly bullish way. Both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume have been lately unconvincing, but at least new highs new lows turned up. They‘re still below the early April peak, revealing that not as many stocks are pushing to make new highs.Credit MarketsVery tight correlation between the high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio and the stock market ended on Friday, and it remains to be seen whether that was a one day occurence only. Investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) gave up half of intraday gains as long-dated Treasuries declined – the downward pressure appears returning into the debt markets.Technology and FinancialsTech (XLK ETF) turned from the sector most heavily extended to the south of its 50-day moving average, to the north of it. And given the hesitation a ka reversal in TLT reflecting upon $NYFANG, the sector‘s steep gains are likely to meet a headwind soon – and value stocks appear to be anticipating that with an upswing of their own, reflected in the financials (black line).Inflation ExpectationsInflation expectations as measured by the TIP:TLT ratio are basing, but bond yields refuse to budge, clearly agreeing that there is higher inflation coming. Gold and SilverGold miners are keeping the sector above water, and the daily gold downswing becomes much less credible as a result.Silver and copper daily downswings are in line with the gold one – there is no indication of a pocket of underperformance in commodities or elsewhere about to spill over and exert pressure on the precious metals sector.SummaryS&P 500 upswing is leaving the index in a vulnerable position, and especially the tech‘s reversal is leaving it in a perched place where no sector is however being really sold off. The current setup is still unfavorable for short-term oriented (bullish leaning) traders who prefer higher signal clarity to the tight correlation we‘ve seen this week, even more so given the corporate credit markets non-confirmation.Miners did their job on Friday, and the precious metals upswing hasn‘t lost its spark in spite of both metals closing down. The $1,760s are still a tough nut to crack, but I look for these levels to be challenge in the near future.

S&P 500 went nowhere yesterday – just like the prior Monday, heavy buying into Friday‘s close met no follow-up the day after. After almost touching 16 to close the week, VIX peeked higher yesterday only to reverse back down. Nice try but if you look at the put/call ratio turning down simulatenously, the alarm bells are far from ringing.The S&P 500 rise of late isn‘t without its good share of non-confirmations though. The ones seen in Russell 2000 and emerging markets got a fresh company in the corporate credit markets. No denying that the stock market is in a strong uptrend, but it got a bit too stretched vs. its 50-day moving average – a consolidation in short order would be a healthy move, but the CPI readings above expectations don‘t favor one today.If you look at the put/call ratio again, its lows throughout Mar and Apr haven‘t been reaching the really exuberant levels of prior months, hinting at a less steep path of S&P 500 gains. And what about the volume print as stocks went about making new highs? Not encouraging either, and it‘s not that rising yields would be causing trouble:(…) The retreat in rising yields is running into headwinds, much sooner than the 10-year one could reach the low 1.50% figure at least. Value stocks and cyclicals such as financials appear calling it out, and both rose on Friday.And financials had a good day yesterday too. Technology welcomed the reprieve, and the heavyweights joined in increasingly more. Again though, more than a little stretched, these $NYFANG generals are rising while the troops (broader tech) are hesitating, which makes a down day / consolidation quite likely, especially should the TLT retreat again. As I wrote yesterday:(…) The rotation simply isn‘t much there, and the TINA trade isn‘t letting much air to come out of the S&P 500 sectors that would be expected to sell off in a more relaxed monetary policy. And that‘s probably what gold is sensing as it grew weak yesterday. The rising yields aren‘t yet at levels causing issue for the S&P 500, but the commodities‘ consolidation coupled with nominal yields about to rise, has been sending gold down yesterday – and miners confirmed that weakness by leading lower. This would likely be a daily occurence only unless and until copper gives in and slides – that‘s because of the inflation expectations having stabilized for now, but Treasury yields not really retreating. Yes, gold misses inflation uptick that would bring real rates down a little again – and is getting one in today‘s CPI as we speak.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 is no longer trading above the upper border of Bollinger Bands, but volume isn‘t picking yet up either. That makes a largely sideways consolidation the more likely scenario here.Credit MarketsBoth high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and the investment grade ones (LQD ETF) declined yesterday while long-dated Treasuries went nowhere – but the bullish spirits in stocks didn‘t evaporate proportionately. This non-confirmation isn‘t too pressing at the moment.Technology and ValueTech (XLK ETF) stumbled yesterday, and it wasn‘t because of $NYFANG (black line) – yet value stocks didn‘t sell off either during these lately turning vapid rotations.Smallcaps and Emerging MarketsThe long underperformance in both indices vs. the S&P 500 goes on, and is actually a stronger watchout than the corporate credit markets at the moment. Inflation ExpectationsInflation expectations as measured by the TIP:TLT ratio are basing, but bond yields are aiming higher again, making higher inflation on the horizon a virtual certainty.Gold, Silver and MinersThe daily underperformance in miners is worrying – this daily leadership to the downside, where gold and silver declined proportionately to each other. Given that commodities didn‘t point to greater weakness, I consider yesterday‘s precious metals downswing as a bit exaggerated. SummaryS&P 500 still appears as entering a consolidation, but I‘m not looking for way too much downside. The Big Tech names would decide, and if you look at Tesla doing well yesterday, the S&P 500 correction would play out rather in time than in price.Gold depends upon the miners‘ path, and nominal yields trajectory. Once more inflation spills over into CPI readings, that would work to negate temporary weakness caused by real rates pressures, which is what we are getting.

S&P 500 went up yet again yesterday, and the corporate credit markets‘ non-confirmation quite resolved itself. While the same can‘t be said about smallcaps or emerging markets in the least, S&P 500 doesn‘t care, and keeps up the staircase rally without real corrections to speak of.Not even intraday ones, unless you count the sharp and brief premarket one yesterday before the CPI figures came out. That‘s the result of the sea of liquidity in practice, and the avalanche of stimuli. The 1.50% yield scare on 10-year Treasuries is long forgotten, and technology welcomes every stabilization, every retreat from even quite higher levels, and value stocks barely budge. No real rotation to speak of and see here, move along.Such were my recent observations:(…) No denying that the stock market is in a strong uptrend, but it got a bit too stretched vs. its 50-day moving average – a consolidation in short order would be a healthy move, but the CPI readings above expectations don‘t favor one today.Talking gold prospects early yesterday:(…) And that‘s probably what gold is sensing as it grew weak yesterday. The rising yields aren‘t yet at levels causing issue for the S&P 500, but the commodities‘ consolidation coupled with nominal yields about to rise, has been sending gold down yesterday – and miners confirmed that weakness by leading lower. This would likely be a daily occurence only unless and until copper gives in and slides – that‘s because of the inflation expectations having stabilized for now, but Treasury yields not really retreating. Yes, gold misses inflation uptick that would bring real rates down a little again – and is getting one in today‘s CPI as we speak.CPI inflation is hitting in the moment, and its pressure would get worse in the coming readings. Yet the market isn‘t alarmed now as evidenced by the inflation expectations not running hot – the Fed quite successfully sold the transitory story, it seems. Unless you look at lumber, steel or similar, of course. None of the commodities have really corrected, and the copper performance bodes well for the precious metals too.The stalwart performance in the miners goes on after a daily pause as gold gathers strength and silver outperformed yesterday. Silver miners and gold juniors are pulling ahead reliably as well, not just gold seniors.The run on $1,760 awaits.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 is no longer trading above the upper border of Bollinger Bands, the price action remains bullish, and volume is ever so slowly picking up (sending weak early signs thereof), but the bulls better watch out for a catalyst forcing a down day once in a while again.Credit MarketsBoth high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and the investment grade ones (LQD ETF) turned around yesterday, and so did long-dated Treasuries – and that supports the bullish spirits in stocks. It was indeed right to view the prior non-confirmation as not too pressing at the moment.Technology and ValueTech (XLK ETF) rose strongly yesterday, and so did the kingmaker $NYFANG (lower black line) and Tesla that I called out yesterday. But value stocks didn‘t sell off – a powerful testament to the TINA trades driving no real rotations to speak of as nothing gets really sold off just on its own.Gold and MinersGold isn‘t in a decline mode anymore, and appears picking up strength so as to take on the $1,760s. Volume is returning, and the current reprieve in rising yields is welcome.Miners returned to the limelight, and it‘s my view they would lead gold by breaking above their recent highs convincingly, as the tide in the metals has turned. Time and desirably a catalyst of such move, is all that is needed. Geopolitics (to the short-term rescue) or more unavoidable inflation data bringing down real rates, that‘s I am looking for next.Silver and MinersSee the gold and silver miners trading in lockstep, remember gold juniors as well, and you get this bullish picture where the whole precious metals sector is slowly coming back to the limelight. In case of silver, the return in volume is boding well for the days ahead – all without the classic signs of bearish isolated silver outperformance. SummaryS&P 500 and the still elusive consolidation – the Fed speakers won‘t likely trigger one today, but bulls, watch out for some daily downside with little to no warning in your plans, after all.Gold and miners‘ paths are aligned, and nominal yields trajectory is boding well for the days ahead when patience is still needed before the nearest resistances in both assets are taken out with conviction.

S&P 500 in the red – unprecedented. Don‘t pin your hopes too high for a (sharp) correction though. Yes, this time stocks listened to the weakening corporate credit markets, and the daily retreat in long-dated Treasuries inspired some profit taking in tech. Quite some run there as yields stabilized, which has turned XLK from very stretched to the downside of its 50-day moving average, to the upside extreme. Tesla also followed suit but I doubt this is a true reversal of tech fortunes.As stated yesterday:(…) That‘s the result of the sea of liquidity in practice, and the avalanche of stimuli. The 1.50% yield scare on 10-year Treasuries is long forgotten, and technology welcomes every stabilization, every retreat from even quite higher levels, and value stocks barely budge. No real rotation to speak of and see here, move along.CPI inflation is hitting in the moment, and its pressure would get worse in the coming readings. Yet the market isn‘t alarmed now as evidenced by the inflation expectations not running hot – the Fed quite successfully sold the transitory story, it seems. Unless you look at lumber, steel or similar, of course. None of the commodities have really corrected, and the copper performance bodes well for the precious metals too.And the Fed mightily confirmed the message yesterday, which is what commodities loved. Inflation has a free reign, all it has to do is to take advantage of it. And if I look at rising oil filtering into higher gasoline and food prices, the real inflation will keep on biting (even though black gold is excluded from CPI calculations).I don‘t expect these recent observations to change much, especially since we got the daily breather yesterday – but 3, let alone 2 red candles in a row? I haven‘t seen that in stocks for quite a while:(…) No denying that the stock market is in a strong uptrend, but it got a bit too stretched vs. its 50-day moving average – a consolidation in short order would be a healthy move, but the CPI readings above expectations don‘t favor one [on Tuesday].Precious metals didn‘t swing higher immediately, but I expect them to take the commodities‘ cue next. When Powell says the Fed isn‘t thinking about selling bonds back into the market, and that he learned a lesson (hello, late 2018), real rates aren‘t probably rising much any time soon. It appears to me a question of time before inflation expectations squeeze the nominal yields some more, which is what gold would love.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookDaily downswing on marginally higher volume that doesn‘t shift the perspective towards a corrective territory in the least. The correct question instead is probably whether the S&P 500 upswing reasserts itself the next day or the day after.Credit MarketsBoth high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and the investment grade ones (LQD ETF) reversed to the downside yesterday, and long-dated Treasuries didn‘t have a good day either. The reversals are though not to be trusted as I look for the upswing in both to continue.Technology and ValueTech (XLK ETF) driven by $NYFANG (lower black line) and then also Tesla (TSLA), were the key underperformers yesterday. Value stocks kept moving higher, and higher SPX prices are more likely next in this no real rotations to speak of environment, courtesy of all the extra liquidity.Inflation ExpectationsYields are not rising, but aren‘t yet retreating either. Have the rising inflation expectations been banished? I‘m not convinced even though they aren‘t running hotter in the wake of PPI and CPI figures, which are bound to get worse next – if copper and oil are to be trusted (they are). Remember that this is the Fed‘s stated mission for now – to let inflation run to make up for prior periods of its lesser prominence. Gold in the LimelightNominal yields are gradually taking the pressure off the yellow metal as the miners keep outperforming gold. Seniors (GDX ETF) would lead gold by breaking above their recent highs convincingly (solidly above $35 on rising volume and bullish candle shape), as the tide in the metals has turned. The unavoidable inflation data bringing down real rates would do the trick.Silver, Copper and OilWhile silver recovered intraday losses, both copper and oil surged on the Fed reaffirmations. The table is set for miners and both precious metals to move higher next. outperformance.SummaryWhat a fast S&P 500 correction, how did you like it? The bulls have yet again reversed the setback in today‘s premarket session, and the slow grind higher keeps going on.Gold and miners are likely to take a cue from the surging commodities, and grow emboldened by the nominal yields retreat. Patience is still needed before the nearest resistances in both assets are taken out with conviction.

The S&P 500 red candle and then some – erased in a day, that‘s what you get with the Fed always having your back. The staircase climb certainly looks like continuing without any real breather. Whatever steep ascent you compare it to (Jun or early Sep 2020), this one is different in that it doesn‘t offer but token corrections. Not that it would be reasonable to expect a steep downswing given the tide of liquidity, but even sideways trading has become rarer than it used to be.With the VIX still below 17 and the put/call ratio in the middle of its slowly but surely less complacent range, the path of least resistance is higher – the signs are still aligned behind the upswing to go on: (…) Don‘t pin your hopes too high for a (sharp) correction though. Yes, [on Wednesday] stocks listened to the weakening corporate credit markets, and the daily retreat in long-dated Treasuries inspired some profit taking in tech. Quite some run there as yields stabilized, which has turned XLK from very stretched to the downside of its 50-day moving average, to the upside extreme. Tesla also followed suit but I doubt this is a true reversal of tech fortunes.Just at yesterday‘s moves – technology surged higher without too much help from the behemoths, and value stocks surged. Even financials ignored the sharp retreat in yields. Yes, that‘s the result of retails sales outdoing expectations and unemployment claims dropping sharply – the economic recovery is doing fine, manufacturing expands, and inflation doesn‘t yet bite. We‘re still in the reflationary stage where economic growth is higher than the rate of inflation or its expectations.Gold loved the TLT upswing and Powell‘s assurances about not selling bonds back into the market in rememberance of eating a humble pie after the Dec 2018 hissy fit in the stock market (isn‘t this the third mandate actually, the cynics might ask). I called for the sharp gains across the precious metals board sending my open position(s) even more into the black – both on Wednesday:(…) CPI inflation is hitting in the moment, and its pressure would get worse in the coming readings. Yet the market isn‘t alarmed now as evidenced by the inflation expectations not running hot – the Fed quite successfully sold the transitory story, it seems. Unless you look at lumber, steel or similar, of course. None of the commodities have really corrected, and the copper performance bodes well for the precious metals too.and Thursday:(…) Precious metals didn‘t swing higher immediately, but I expect them to take the commodities‘ cue next. When Powell says the Fed isn‘t thinking about selling bonds back into the market, and that he learned a lesson (hello, late 2018), real rates aren‘t probably rising much any time soon. It appears to me a question of time before inflation expectations squeeze the nominal yields some more, which is what gold would love.The stalwart performance in the miners goes on after a daily pause as gold gathers strength and silver outperformed yesterday. Silver miners and gold juniors are pulling ahead reliably as well, not just gold seniors.The run on $1,760 awaits.This is just the beginning, and as I had been repeatedly stating on Twitter:(…) The GDX closing convincingly above $35 would usher in great gold and silver moves.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookNew ATHs, again and this time on rising volume – the momentum still remains with the bulls even though the daily indicators are waning in strength, and as said earlier, $NYFANG causes a few short-term wrinkles.Credit MarketsThe high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio performance got better aligned with the S&P 500 one, now that nominal yields have retreated.Smallcaps and Emerging MarketsReflecting the turn in the Treasury markets, both the Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) and emerging markets (EEM ETF) clearly turned higher, confirming the direction the S&P 500 has been on practically non-stop since late Mar.Inflation ExpectationsInflation expectations are going down, that‘s the conventional wisdom – and nominal yields duly follow. But the RINF ETF isn‘t buying the TIPS message all that much, proving my yesterday‘s point:(...) Have the rising inflation expectations been banished? I‘m not convinced even though they aren‘t running hotter in the wake of PPI and CPI figures, which are bound to get worse next – if copper and oil are to be trusted (they are). Remember that this is the Fed‘s stated mission for now – to let inflation run to make up for prior periods of its lesser prominence. Gold in the LimelightGold is surging higher ahead of the nominal yields retreat, as the bond vigilantes failed yet again to show up. In the meantime, the inflationary pressures keep building up...Gold, Silver and MinersAs stated the day before, seniors (GDX ETF) would lead gold by breaking above their recent highs convincingly (solidly above $35 on rising volume and bullish candle shape), as the tide in the metals has turned. The unavoidable inflation data bringing down real rates would do the trick, which is exactly what happened. Silver scored strong gains as well, yet didn‘t visibly outperform the rest of the crowd. I look for the much awaited precious metals upleg to go on, and considerably increase open profits.SummaryThe daily S&P 500 downswing is history, and the relentless push higher (best to be compared with a rising tide), goes on.Gold and miners took a cue from the surging commodities, and nominal yields retreat. Patience has been rewarded, and a close above $1,775, is what I am looking for next as the gold bottom is in.

Stocks went on to push higher yesterday – the pressure is building. Trends in place since last week, remain in place for this earnings rich one too. Reflation still rules, reopening trades are well underway, and inflation expectations are modestly turning up again without putting too much strain on the Treasury markets.While Monday wasn‘t an example of a risk-on day, the markets are clearly moving there:(…) overpowering the USD bulls yet again as the dollar bear market has reasserted itself. It‘s not just about EUR/USD on the way to its late Feb highs, but about the USD/JPY too – the yen carry trade is facing headwinds these days, acting as a supportive factor for gold prices. While these went through a daily correction, commodities pretty much didn‘t – lumber is powering to new highs, agrifoods didn‘t have a down day in April, copper and oil scored respectable gains. The market is in a higher inflation environment already, and it will become increasingly apparent that commodity-led inflation is here to stay.Yesterday was a great day for commodities again as these scored stronger gains than tech or $NYFANG, the main winners within the S&P 500 (defensives took it on the chin – seems like we‘re about to see rates move higher again). Anyway, VIX didn‘t object as options traders piled into the clearly complacent end of the spectrum again. Both the Russell 2000 and emerging markets loved that – the best days for smallcaps are clearly ahead:(…) the time of their outperformance, is approaching.Gold miners didn‘t outperform the yellow metal yesterday while silver did – are the ingredients for a metals‘ top in place? I don‘t think so, and have actually called out on Twitter the GDX downswing as likely to be rejected and ending with a noticeable lower knot. And here we are. No changes to my Friday‘s thoughts that:(…) The precious metals upleg has started, we‘re in a real assets super bull market, and this little hiccup won‘t derail it. The sad implication would actually drive it as capital formation would be hampered, unproductive behaviors encouraged, and potential output lowered. Pretty serious consequences – add to which inflation as that‘s what the Fed ultimately wants, and the recipe for more people falling into higher tax brackets through illusory gains, is set. Then, as inflation starts firing on all cylinders – a 2022-3 story when the job market starts overheating – the pain would be felt more keenly. When even Larry Summers starts talking the dangers of an inflationary wave, things are really likely getting serious down the road. On a side note, my tomorrow‘s analysis will be briefer than usual, and published probably a bit later as I have unavoidable dental treatment to undergo. Thank you everyone for your patience and loyalty – it‘s already a little over 3 months since I could start publishing totally independent. Thank you so much for all your support!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe bears are certainly running (have certainly run) out of time, and the upper knot of yesterday‘s session looks little concerning to me. Tesla enjoying the Bitcoin moves, more tech earnings soon, and favorable sectoral composition of the S&P 500 advance favor the coming upswing.Credit MarketsDebt instruments got under pressure – high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and investment grade ones (LQD ETF) have declined in a signal of non-confirmation, and joined the long-dated Treasuries in their downswing. I am not yet convinced this is a serious enough more to warrant a change in S&P 500 outlook.Technology and FinancialsThe $NYFANG strength continues, powering tech higher – and that‘s the engine behind solid S&P 500 performance. Notably, financials weren‘t waiting yesterday on other value stocks turning higher, and that‘s bullish.Gold, Silver and MinersGold caught a bid, and refused to decline intraday, which almost matches the miners‘ performance. Given these two daily stands, I‘m in favor of disregarding the usual outperformance warning of silver doing considerably better.This is the proper view of the miners and miners to gold ratio – noticeable outperformance in the latter while the former is getting ready to rise again.Gold and the Key RatioAs is visibly even more true today than yesterday, the copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio shows that the markets aren‘t buying the transitory inflation story – the rush into commodities goes on, and justifiably so. This chart is clearly unfavorable to lower metals‘ prices.SummaryThe S&P 500 keeps pushing for new all time highs, which looks to be a matter of relatively short time only. Credit markets non-confirmation is to be disregarded in favor of strong smallcaps, emerging markets and cornered dollar in my view.Gold and miners are in consolidation mode, but this is little concerning to the bulls. No signs of an upcoming reversal and truly bearish plunge - the precious metals sector is likely to play a catch up relative to commodities as its sluggish post Aug performance would get inevitably forgotten.

This article describes how Tesla is positioned now on the stock market, what headwinds and tailwinds it has, and what analysts forecast.US-China tensionsJoe Biden has left 25% tariffs on imported Chinese electric vehicles imposed by Donald Trump. As a result, Elon Musk’s plans to expand its Shanghai plant and make it a global export hub have been ruined. It’s not beneficial for Tesla, that’s why the company now is likely to decrease the proportion of China's output in its global production. What happens in China, stays in China There were disputes over how Tesla handles consumer data and whether it can violate the national safety rules. As a result, Tesla agreed to build a data center in Shanghai by the end of June and store the data gathered by Tesla’s cars locally.Tesla’s sales in China growTesla's sales in China have been rising even despite the regulatory pressure from the Chinese government. The company has generated $3 billion in revenue in China in the first quarter of 2021, it’s three times more than a year ago and accounts for 30% of total Tesla’s revenue.Competition is getting hotterHowever, Tesla is not the only electric vehicle producer in China. It’s competing with Nio, which is quite popular in China. Besides, electric-vehicle competition is growing around the globe: Lucid Motors, Ford, and Volkswagen. Chip shortageThere is a chip shortage around the world, and it creates some significant problems for electric-vehicle producers and Tesla as well. However, it cannot be viewed as a negative factor only for Tesla, it’s a challenge for the whole EV industry and also other sectors dependent on chips. Besides, it will only be a temporary setback.Buy or not to buy?It’s a tricky question as some analysts believe that Tesla has more room to fall further, while at the same time others forecast Tesla to skyrocket. For example, Wedbush's Dan Ives expects Tesla to reach $1000! Isn’t it too optimistic, what do you think?As you may have noticed, there are more headwinds than tailwinds for now, but Tesla tends to rise no matter what. So when such a company as Tesla is at the local dips, it’s likely to attract buyers as it has many investors that believe in the company and it’s still the #1 electric vehicle producer. Let’s look at what the charts will tell us!Tech analysisTesla has dropped out of the ascending channel. It’s approaching the psychological mark of $600.00. Since the RSI indicator is not yet below the 30.00 level, the stock may drop to this support level. However, the falling should stop at that point as the stock is already below the lower line of Bollinger Bands and the 200-day moving average just below $600 will be a strong barrier. When it reverses up, it may meet resistance levels at the 50-day moving average of $680.00 and late-April highs of $750.00. Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!

What happened?Elon Musk, Tesla’s founder and CEO, said the company wouldn’t accept Bitcoin as payment any longer. As a result, BTC/USD dropped to $45,300, the low unseen since March.Why has Musk done that?He explained his actions with environmental issues: “rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels for Bitcoin mining and transactions”. Indeed, this problem exists. According to Citigroup’s report, Bitcoin mining is consuming 66 times more electricity than it did back in late 2015, and as a result, carbon emissions are increasingly rising.What’s next?He won’t sell any of the Bitcoin Tesla already holds and what’s more important, he signaled he might accept other cryptocurrencies as payment if they are less energy-intensive. Well, what would be his next #1 crypto? Maybe Dogecoin? He asked about that his followers on Twitter already: 78% said yes. There are some talks about ETH and XRP right now.What about Bitcoin?Musk’s tweet can’t make an end to Bitcoin. The BTC is still the #1 cryptocurrency by the market cap and it’s likely to keep its uptrend in the long term. For most investors, it’s just a good opportunity to buy the dips.Tech tipsThe RSI indicator hasn’t yet crossed the 30.00 level on the daily chart. Therefore, there is still some room to fall further, but probably the price reverses up from the current levels. If it jumps above the midline of Bollinger Bands at $55,000, the way up to $60,000 will be open. In the opposite scenario, the move below the lower trend line at $48,000 will press down the crypto to the $45,000 support.Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!

Yesterday I highlighted thebroad market cyclesand what technical analysts call the “Excess Phase Top” process, which usually takes place after the markets peak and setup a downward price trend.There are a number of technical setups that take place throughout this process. Today, I will be exploring the charts of Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), and Bitcoin (BTC) to see where they are in the process.The suggestion I am making by highlighting these market trends and setups is that a Cash Position is a viable allocation of capital away from risks and losses. Many traders don't view a cash position as a properly allocated use of capital. We believe taking a cash position at the right times can anddoes provide very clear benefits, including:Eliminating risks of further losses/drawdowns.Setting up a process of protecting cash and waiting for a confirmed re-entry trigger.Avoiding the failure of buying into a declining market – which is one of thebiggest faults of active traders.Using the Cash position as a hedge against shifting currency/market valuations.Remember, in many cases, broad market downtrends are often associated with bigger trends in currencies and global market sectors. Chasing these trends can lead to further risks if you are not careful and skilled in your trading decisions. Keeping your capital in a Cash Allocation/Position is often the easiest and safest way for you to ride out volatile downside price trends and allows you tore-deploy your cash into new trades when the time is right.Understanding Broad Market Cycles & TrendsBefore we get started, we are going to share the broader market cycles chart with you to refresh your memory (or if you missed the first part ofthis research article).Before looking at the charts, please bear in mind that these patterns often take place over many months. Usually, the initial topping (#1) phase and flagging formation (#2) take place over a 60 to 90+ day span of time. Yes, sometimes these setups can take place over shorter spans of time, but usually, they last over 60+ days.Additionally, the breakdown of the Flag formation (#2), which leads to the setup of intermediate support (#3), can often take many months to complete aswell. My research team and I have seen the Flagging setup last well over 30 days at times and after the immediate support level is reached, markets sometimes attempt to move sideways for many weeks/months before attempting to break below that support level.APPL Continues To Flag Out – Watch for potential breakdown below $115.The Weekly AAPL chart below highlights the rally from $35 to over $140 over the past 2.5 years (notice the price split that happened in 2020). This rally reached a peak near January 25, 2021 (#1) and has fallen nearly 20% from the peak levels before starting a sideways Flag formation (#2). This type of setup completes the first two processes of the Excess Phase Top setup and aligns with the broader market cycles to suggest we mayhave entered the “Complacency” phase of price trending.The sideways Flagging pattern (#2) on this chart suggests AAPL may continue to move within this price channel before attempting to either recover, by moving to new highs or to break below the $115 level (#3), which would confirm the next phase of the Excess Phase Top pattern. If we see any continued breakdown in price, traders need to prepare for the markets to attempt to move downward, targeting historical support levels, where we expect price toconsolidate for many weeks/months. I have drawn a YELLOW line near a very clear support level for AAPL near $80 as a potential downside price target. If this Excess Phase Top pattern fails, we will likely see AAPL rally back above $145 and attempt to break into a new bullish trending phase.Tesla Breaks Below Flag Channels – What's Next?The following Weekly TSLA chart highlights the rally from $73 to over $900 over the past year (note the price split that happened in 2020). This rally also reached a peak near January 25, 2021 (#1) and has fallen nearly 40% from the peak levels before starting a sideways Flag formation (#2). At this phase of price action, we can see TSLA has recently broken below the lower Flag price channel and may be attempting to start a downward price trend where price will seek out intermediate support.I have drawn a YELLOW line near a very clear support level for TSLA near $430 as a potential downside price target for this next phase of the Excess Phase Top pattern (#3). From atechnical standpoint, if the support level near recent lows, near $540, holds, and price is unable to move below this level, then we may see a technical failure of the Excess Phase Top pattern. The move to the intermediate support level, which must be lower than the lows of the Flag formation, is critical in confirming the move into “Complacency” and the transition into “Anxiety” on the Broad Market Cycle example. Without this subsequent breakdown in price happening, we would consider the Excess Phase Top pattern potentially invalid (or failed) and start to watch for any new upside price trending – eventually targeting recent highs near $780. At this point, the $540 lows have become the new critical price level for TSLA and we are expecting price to continue to move lower, possibly breaching the $540 level.Bitcoin Gaps Lower After Peak & Breaks Flag Lows – What's Next?This last chart for Daily BTC Futures highlights the rally from $10,200 to over $65,500 over the past 7.5 months. This rallyreached a peak near April 14, 2021 (#1) and Gapped lower on April 19, 2021. The recent downside price move from that peak totaled nearly -27% before starting a sideways Flag formation (#2). In order to confirm the next phase of this Excess Phase Top pattern, we would watch for price to break lower, breaking the Flag formation channels, and attempt to break below the recent support level near $47,440. If we see a strong breakdown in price where closing price levels break below $47,440, I would expect price to move quickly below $40,000 and attempt to seek out critical support.I have drawn a YELLOW line near a very clear support level for BTC near $34,250 as a potential downside price target for this next phase of the Excess Phase Top pattern (#3).Recently, Bitcoin broke below the Flag formation lower channel and briefly traded below support near $47,440. If we continue to see downward price trending where price closes below this level, I would consider this technical confirmation of the Excess Phase Top pattern, suggesting price will attempt to continue moving lower while trying to seek out intermediate support (near the YELLOW line possibly).At this point, Bitcoin is showing moderate weakness and has already attempted to break recent support. Any confirmation of further downward trending could push us out of the Complacency phase and into the Anxiety phase of the broad market cycles. Are you ready for what's next?The question of “Should You Be In Cash” right now is a very valid concern for many traders/investors. Learning how to identify and understand risks and technical patterns/setups in the markets is critical to understanding how to protect and grow your wealth. Additionally, learning to use the Cash Position, and proper position sizing, asa valid type of trading allocation is essential, in our thinking, to protect your assets throughout volatile market trends. The next 12 to 24 months are almost certain to include much higher price volatility and big price rotations/trends, which will translate into incredibleopportunities for traders/investors.Over the next 6+ months and beyond, there are going to be incredible market moves. Staying ahead of these index and sector trends is going to be key to developing continued success. As somesectors fail, others will begin to trend higher, and this is the type of research and work I share every day at The Technical Traders Ltd.Happy Trading!Chris VermeulenChief Market Strategistwww.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Coinbase, one of the world’s top crypto exchanges, has started the year on a positive footing as it has become the first crypto exchange in history that went public. On April 14, it was listed on Nasdaq. However, 60% of its trading volume depends on Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have lost a large part of their value recently. For newbies, it can be frightening, but for experienced traders – it’s an opportunity to buy the dips. Bitcoin’s dominance wanes Coinbase may have problems if it continues to be as dependent on Bitcoin as it’s now as Bitcoin’s dominance is waning. That’s why the crypto exchange is adding new cryptocurrencies. For example, it has recently announced it would add Dogecoin to its exchange in 6-8 weeks (the one that Elon Musk called a ‘hustle’ in a Saturday Night show). What’s wrong with Bitcoin? As Elon Musk tweeted, Bitcoin mining requires a lot of electricity, which in turn increases the usage of fossil fuels and pollutes the environment. Indeed, this problem exists as bitcoin mining uses more electricity than most countries do. And if other eco-friendly companies join Tesla and reject payment in Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency may fall even deeper, and for Coinbase it would be a blow. Coinbase’s performance Coinbase’s earnings results came out slightly worse than expected, but the broad picture is great. The company has attracted 56 million users and its revenue tripled from the quarter before. Trade Coinbase and other stocks in our app FBS Trader and don’t forget that stock trading is available from 16:30 GMT+3 to 22:59, while crypto trading is available for trading 24/7! Coinbase is touching the dips these days. Therefore, it’s important to keep an eye on the chart as the reverse up may occur soon because the popularity of cryptocurrencies is growing despite all these negative factors mentioned above.

The recent price volatility related to the surprise Jobs number, nearly ten days ago, and the potential for inflationary price trends extended beyond the Fed expectations has created a unique type of sideways price rotation on the INDU chart.  This recent price volatility suggests the markets are struggling to identify future trend bias as well as attempting to shake out certain traders and investors (running stops).Additionally, the downside price trend we've recently seen in Lumber, breaking away from the continued rally mode, and Bitcoin, breaking downward nearly -54% from recent highs, suggests a broad market “washout” is taking place.  How far will this trend continue?  Will the US stock market break downward like Bitcoin has recently done?  Let's take a look at the charts and try to answer some of these questions.Before we continue exploring charts, I suggest readers review some of my recent research posts relating to this potential downward price trend in the US/Global markets, including: Are We Days Away From Potential Gann/Fibonacci Price Peak? (March 17, 2021); Market Leverage Reaches New All-Time Highs As The Excess Phase Rally Continues (April 25, 2021); and Are Apple, Tesla, and Bitcoin Entering a Technical ‘Excess Phase Top’? Should You Be In Cash Right Now? Part II (May 15, 2021).Expect Continued Price Volatility As Markets Attempt To Establish New TrendsWe'll start by exploring the Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily chart, below, and the first thing we want to highlight is the extended upward (YELLOW) price trend channel.  This upward sloping price channel has been in force since the March 2020 COVID-19 lows.  It was confirmed by the November 2020 lows and retested in March 2021.  Typically, when price channels this strongly over an extended period of time, the price channel becomes a psychological barrier/wall for price trending.  When it is breached or broken, price trends often react moderately aggressively – with excessive volatility.Over the past 10+ days, near the right edge of this chart, we can see that price has started to react with much higher volatility and broad sideways price trends.  It appears the INDU chart has entered a new phase of market price activity – moving away from moderately low volatility bullish trending and into much higher volatility sideways rotation.  We attribute this to a shift in how traders and investors perceive the future actions of the US Fed and how risks are suddenly much more prominent than they were 3+ weeks ago.  It appears the “rally euphoria” has ended and traders are starting to adjust expectations related to a slower economic reflation of the global economy.Depending on how traders and investors perceive the future growth opportunities in the US and global markets, as well as how new strains of the COVID-19 virus may continue to disrupt global economies, we may see a fairly big change in trend throughout the rest of 2021 and possibly into 2020.  In our opinion, the tremendous rally phase that took place between October 2020 and now has been anchored on the perception that the COVID vaccines would allow for an almost immediate and nearly full economic recovery attempt.  Now, after we are seeing various new strains of COVID ravage India, Europe, Africa and parts of South-East Asia, expectations may be changing quickly.Everything Hinges On How Price Reacts Near The YELLOW Support Channel LineThis Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average chart highlights the same upward sloping price trend from the March 2020 COVID-19 lows.  It also shows the start of the broad market rotation over the past three weeks and highlights three key “standout lows” that we interpret as critical support levels.  These support levels are at $32,090, 30,575, and $29,875.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!If we continue to see downward price trending which breaks through the YELLOW upward sloping price channel line, it is very likely that price will continue to move lower while attempting to find new support near these standout low price levels.  This suggests any breakdown in the INDU may prompt a further -5% to -11% downside price move.If the recent price rotation stalls and continues to find support above the YELLOW upward sloping price channel line, then we expect the US markets to transition into a sideways bottoming formation which will prompt another rally attempt in the near future. Everything hinges on what happens over the next few weeks related to this key YELLOW upward sloping price channel.What this means for traders and Investors is that certain market sectors are still posed for strength and growth over the next 6 to 12 months.  The recent downside price volatility suggests broad market concerns related to a continued reflation trade are certainly evident in how the markets are trending.  Yet, within this potential sideways rotation, there are sectors and trends that still present very real opportunities for profits. If the major US indexes find support above the YELLOW price channel line and attempt to mount another rally, traders need to be prepared for this potential opportunity in the markets – attempting to target the best and strongest market sectors.As I just mentioned, everything hinges on what happens over the next few days and weeks related to the YELLOW price support channel.  One way or another, the markets are either going to attempt to rally higher while this support channel holds or a bigger breakdown event may take place as price breaks below the support channel and attempts to find new, lower, support.Learn why we moved our BAN clients into CASH over a week ago and learn how we use the BAN trading strategy to manage risks and take advantage of the strongest market sectors. Please take a minute to learn about our BAN Trader Pro strategy and how it can help you identify and trade better sector setups.  Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the BAN Trader Pro system trades.  You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.Enjoy the rest of your day!!

Another day, another all-time large-cap equity index high, right? Today, let’s take a look at an ETF that could interest traders looking for a contrarian strategy.The bull market has continued, albeit with some warning signs beneath the surface of the market.Last week, markets flexed their resiliency muscles by quickly erasing a 700 + point Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday and ending the week at all-time highs. Easy monetary policy has continued, and liquidity is high. There was no shortage of buyers that were ready, willing, and able to buy that dip.Even though the Fed has telegraphed its message of increasing rates in the future, Fed bond purchases have continued for the time being. The purchasing of these bonds helps to keep rates lower and create liquidity across markets.Since June of 2020, the Fed has been buying $80 billion a month in Treasury bonds and $40 billion in MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities).There is quite a lot happening this week. Consumer Confidence is set for release tomorrow. We will hear from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday with the FOMC statement and the subsequent conference call. Advance GDP and Core PCE are on the table for later in the week.All of the above happens during earnings week for the tech giants, namely Apple, Facebook, Google, Tesla, Amazon, and Microsoft.What can we do on a week like this when the S&P 500 is at or near an all-time high?Last week, we examined the divergence of the Dow Jones Transports and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.The Transports:Figure 1 - Dow Jones Transportation Average March 8, 2021 - July 26, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comTransports have been weak, and today the index traded up to and touched the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from its July 1, 2021, high to its July 19, 2021 low. What is going on with the transports?We can see lower highs and higher lows that have been occurring since May. Today is providing a nice bounce and intraday reversal so far.As we can see, there is a downtrend in place in an otherwise sector uptrend dominant marketplace, let’s go with what is working here.Looking for an ETF to take advantage of this downtrend is no easy task. Currently, I do not see a liquid way to take the inverse side of the transportation, so we will examine a short position in IYT.Figure 2 - iShares Transportation Average ETF March 18, 2021 - July 26, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comWe see IYT doing its job rather well, seeking to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. equities in the transportation sector.Considering this downtrend could be a way to gain some alternative exposure in today’s market.We are in a big earnings and economic data release week. There could be volatility in either direction in the major indices.Since I am cautious on the indices in the current landscape per previous Stock Trading Alert publications, a trade in the transports could be a way to take advantage of an existing countertrend, while the major market indices have been trading at highs.Now, for our premium subscribers, let's look to pinpoint potential entry levels in IYT, and recap the other markets that we are covering. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.

The biotech industry has always had a high potential to grow, but the pandemic has boosted this sector even more and as a result, attracted many new investors especially vaccine producers. Let’s go through the top stocks of the biotech industry.ModernaModerna surged on the announcement that its Covid-19 vaccine was granted provisional registration by Australia's administration. Moderna is planning to supply as many as 25 million doses of its vaccine to the Australian government by 2022.However, this company has a unique feature. It has joined one of the most credible stock indexes in the US – the S&P 500 index. It helped the stock to rise even more! Check our recent article to see what happened with Tesla when it joined S&P 500.Moderna has almost reached the psychological mark of $500.00, but as it often happens, it has failed to cross such an important level on the first try. We can expect that sooner or later, it will break this resistance level and rally up further to the next round number of $550.00. Support levels are $400 and $350.00.Pfizer and BioNTechBioNTech and Pfizer have recently published better than expected earnings results for the second quarter. The companies claimed they can produce up to 3 billion Covid-19 vaccines this year, with capacity increasing to 4 billion doses in 2022. Pfizer is getting closer to the $50.00 level, while BioNTech has reversed down from $463.00. NovavaxMeanwhile, Novavax has gained from Barron’s article. It was written that the New York State Common Retirement Fund, the third-largest public pension in the US, has increased its stake in Novavax and other vaccine stocks. However, the vaccine maker claimed that it would delay submission of its Covid-19 vaccine to the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use authorization until the fourth quarter.The breakout above the $240.00 resistance level will push the stock up to the high of April 27 at $260.00. After that, the stock price may jump to an all-time high near $320.00. Support levels are the 100- and 200-day moving averages of $190.00 and $170.00, respectively.   Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!

More optimistic follow through yesterday brought additional gains to commodities while stocks and gold treaded water. Just as I wrote yesterday, the celebrations of the taper tough talk being just talk, were a little too powerful, and at least a modest daily consolidation arrived.Credit markets point to the risk-on moves to continue, favoring the reflation trades as yields and inflation expectations would slowly but surely pick up. The dollar has gone on the defensive again but look for it to recover some ground as metals and cryptos are gently hinting at today. Are the commodities and precious metals bull runs in jeopardy though? Not in the least as the conditions haven‘t and won‘t change with the Fed taper plays that have rocked the boat last week quite well.As stated yesterday:(…) And with much of the tapering done through the repo market in a way already, the focus will shift to the balooning deficits and debt ceiling so as to confront the disappointment creeping in through Monday‘s PMIs and more. I‘m not looking though for a deterioration strong enough to derail the stock market and commodities bull runs. Let alone the precious metals one. A good signal thereof would be widening credit spreads on the long end as the short end has been flattened already.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily pause is all we‘ve seen in stocks yesterday, with Nasdaq hit a little on account of the rising nominal yields. As even value found it hard to sustain gains, we‘re likely to see the consolidation to continue next as big moves before the Jackson Hole is over, are unlikely.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds continued the march higher, closing on a strong note again – the daily consolidation hasn‘t thus far arrived there. Overall positive turn in credit markets that‘s however leaving it a little extended for today and tomorrow unless the quality instruments rise modestly.Gold, Silver and MinersNot too much interesting has happened in the gold sector – only silver joined in the copper and oil upswings. Look for the sensitivity to the dollar moves to continue to a modest, yet decreasing degree as the taper suspense gets resolved – I say temporarily resolved as I don‘t believe in crystal clarity after Jackson Hole.Crude OilCrude oil rebound continues, and a little breather next wouldn‘t be unexpected. Reasonable prices have been reached, and the local bottom is in.CopperCopper rebound continues, and stabilization at around 4.25 is very constructive for the bulls – bullish chart and fundamentals even if we might go a little sideways first still (the red metal is slowing down a little vs. the CRB).Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are bidding their time – haven‘t breached any important support just yet. As stated yesterday, backing and filling before another upswing wouldn‘t be at all surprising.SummaryBefore the Jackson Hole, I‘m not looking for extensive and sustainable moves one or the other way. Return of the risk-on trades should be the lens to watch the markets through even though a discreet liquidity tightening is going on under the surface as e.g. margin debt data show. And don‘t look for M2 movements to put a stop to inflation.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

What happened?The automaker Ford has jumped sharply! What are the main drivers of such rapid growth? Let’s find out! First, the auto giant Ford has started to lay the groundwork to transform its petrol-driven cars into electric vehicles.Ford’s Electrification revolution planThe company is going to spend $30 billion in investments for electrification until 2025.Ford intends to make EVs a significant part of its total product mix: 40-50% of all Ford’s vehicles should be electric by 2030.It makes investors excited. More and more people add the stocks of EVs to their portfolios. Indeed, electric vehicles are the trend of the last years as the key problem for the whole world remains climate change. Thus, renewable energy stocks are on the rise right now. Apart from Ford, pay attention to Tesla, Apple (it plans to launch its EV car), General Motors.Ford’s performanceThe Ford stock has jumped by 65% from $8.79 to $14.50 since the end of 2020. Just to compare, the broad market index, S&P 500 (US 500) has surged by 16% in the same period.Chip shortageLast week, the company claimed it would be forced to cut production even more at its factories in North America amid the current global semiconductor shortage. It may weigh on the stock price in the near to medium term, but this problem is global, so it will impact many stocks linked to semiconductors. Thus, this obstacle is not so serious.Tech outlook There is a nice uptrend in the daily chart. The stock price has broken above the psychological mark of $15.00 and even pulled back to this level after a breakout – a sign of the continuation of an uptrend. We might expect the stock price of Tesla to advance to June’s high of $16.50. If it manages to cross this resistance level, the stock may jump to the next round number of $17.00. Support levels are the recent low of $15.00 and the 100-day moving average of $14.00.Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!

Gold, after 18 weeks of being stuck in a maniacal Short trend without price really going anywhere, FINALLY broke the bonds of the M word crowd by flipping to Long -- but not without a mid-week scare: more later on that affair. But we begin by assessing the stark INSANITY besetting the parabolic performance of the S&P 500, +25% year-to-date. It settled yesterday (Friday) at 4698 (reaching 4718 intra-day), a record closing high for the seventh consecutive session. Such phenomenon has occurred but five other times in the past 41 years! So here's a multiple choice question for you: Ready? Across all those years (i.e. from 1980-to-date), what is the longest stretch of time between all-time highs for the S&P 500? â–  a) eight monthsâ–  b) just over three yearsâ–  c) slightly less than six yearsâ–  d) all of the above (for you WestPalmBeachers down there)â–  e) none of the above If having answered "e)", you are correct: the longest stint was almost seven-and-one-quarter years from 24 March 2000 through the DotComBomb up to 13 Jul 2007. 'Twas the complete antithesis of the current paradigm of an all-time high every single trading day. But wait, there's more: those of you who were with us way back in the days at AvidTrader may recall our technically having "mild", "moderate" and "extreme" readings of both oversold and overbought conditions for the S&P. Well, get a load of this: yesterday was the S&P's 12th consecutive day with an "extremely overbought" reading. During these 41 years, that has only happened once before, 36 years ago in 1985. And the price/earnings ratio then was a respectable 10.5x: today 'tis five times that much at 54.4x (!!!) easily more than double the S&P's lifetime median P/E (since 1957) of 20.4x. And still more: Every time the S&P moves from one 100-point milestone to the next, 'tis a FinMedia "big headline deal", albeit the percentage increase comparably narrows. Nonetheless, trading gains and losses are measured by the point, not the percentage. And from 1980-to-date, the S&P has gone from 100 to now 4700, (i.e. through 46 milestones. Upon having just achieved the 4600 level on 29 October, the average number of trading days over these past 41 years to reach each 100-point milestone is 236 (just about a year's worth). But now from 4600-4700 took just five days! Cue John McEnroe: "You canNOT be SERious!!" 'Course, every trend reaches a bend, if not its end. And whilst the market is never wrong, something will the S&P upend. You regular readers already know the "earnings are not there" to support even one-half the S&P's current level. Moreover, 'tis said when the Federal Open Market Committee does nudge up its Bank's Funds rate, 'twill be "Game Over" for the S&P, (something of which the Fed is very fearful). "But mmb, even a rise from just 0.25% to only 0.50% maintains a really low rate..." Nominally still low, yes Squire: but upon it occurring, the Fed shall have doubled the cost for every bank that comes to the borrowing window, from which one can then ask banking clientele: "How's that variable rate loan workin' out for ya?" And thus falleth the first domino. And the S&P. Have a great day. Gold had a great day yesterday in settling out the week at 1820. But as noted, 'twas not before a mid-week scare. With Gold wallowing on "The Taper of Paper" Wednesday -- down at 1758 (a three-week low) -- the tried-and-true, widely followed daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD) crossed to negative. Such previous 11 negative crossings had averaged downside follow-through of 86 points. Thus within that technical vacuum, another run sub-1700 was placed on Gold's table. What instead followed was a one-day whipsaw, Gold's MACD finishing the week with a positive cross, and even better, the weekly parabolic Short trend FINALLY being bust per the first Gold-encircled dot in our weekly bars graphic: FINALLY too Gold had its first Friday in five of not being flogged ostensibly by the M word crowd. Should they thus have left the building, in concert with both the daily MACD back on the positive side and the weekly parabolic again Long, the door is open for Gold to glide up into the 1900s toward concluding 2021. As for the five primary BEGOS Markets, here are their respective percentage tracks from one month ago (21 trading days)-to-date, the S&P having swiftly replaced Oil as the leader of the pack. Of more import, note the rightmost bounce for Gold and the Bond. Why are those two stalwart safe havens suddenly getting the bid? (See our opening commentary on S&P INSANITY): Meanwhile as we waltz into the waning two weeks of Q3 Earnings Season, of the S&P's 505 constituents, 426 have reported (450 is typically the total within the seasonal calendar), of which 340 (80%) have bettered their bottom lines from Q3 of a year ago when much of the world purportedly was "shut down". Thus such significant improvement was expected: "They better have bettered!" Yet as noted, our "live" P/E is at present 54.4x. Thus to bring earnings up to snuff such as to reduce the P/E to its lifetime median of 20.4x, bottom lines need increase by 167%: but the median year-over-year increase (for those 396 constituents with positive earnings from both a year ago and now) is only 19%. Thus for those of you scoring at home, a 19% increase is nowhere near the "requisite" 167%. "Look Ma! Still no earnings!" (Crash). Still earning to grasp good grace is the track of the Economic Barometer, which bopped up a bit on the week's headline numbers. To be sure, October's Payrolls improved with a decline in the Unemployment Rate and a jump in the Institute for Supply Management's Services Index. But with a return of folks to the workplace (excluding those who've post-COVID decided they don't need to work) came a plunge in Q3's Productivity combined with a spike in Unit Labor Costs. As well, October's growth in Hourly Earnings slowed and the Average Workweek shortened, such combination suggesting temporary jobs materially lifted the overall Payrolls number. Also less highlighted was September's slowing in Factory Orders, shrinkage in Construction Spending, and the largest Trade Deficit recorded in the Baro's 24-year history. Here's the whole picture from one year ago-to-date with the S&P standing up straight: To our proprietary Gold technicals we go, the two-panel graphic featuring price's daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left with the 10-day Market Profile on the right. And note the "Baby Blues" of linear regression trend consistency being abruptly stopped in their downward path thanks to Friday's "super-bar" -- Gold's best intra-day low-to-high run in nearly four weeks -- and the highest closing price since 04 September. As well in the Profile, price sits atop the entire stack, which you'll recall for the prior two weeks was at best a congestive mess. But to quote Inspecteur Clouseau, "Not any moooure...": As for Silver, she's not as yet generating as much comparable excitement. At left, her "Baby Blues" continue to slip even as price gained ground into week's end. At right, the price of 24 clearly is her near-term "line in the sand". Still, our concern a week ago of her falling into the low 22s has somewhat abated, albeit the daily parabolic trend remains Short; however a quick move to 24.700 ought nix that condition. "C'mon, Sister Silver!": So there it all is. We see Gold as poised to FINALLY move higher toward year-end, (barring a resurgence of the M word crowd). And we see the S&P as poised for its off-the-edge-of-the-Bell-curve INSANITY to cease, (barring an economic erosion that instead furthers the flow of free dough). After all, bad is good, just as Gold is always good. In that spirit to conclude for this week, here are three good bits from a few of the smartest (so we're told) people in the world: Betsey "With an e" Stevenson says with respect to folks not returning to the workforce post-COVID that "...It’s like the whole country is in some kind of union renegotiation..." That is True Blue Michigan-speak right there. But think about it: when you've got a) the upper labor hand, and b) the aforementioned free dough that you popped into the stock market to thus gain some 38% since the economy first shutdown, why work, eh? Besides, the feeling of marked-to-market wealth is a beautiful thing. Elon "Spacey" Musk now notes that Tesla has not contracted with Hertz to sell 100,000 four-wheel batteries. Recall when that deal first was announced, the price of TSLA went up many times more than the additional incremental return of the transaction. But hardly has it since retracted. 'Course, the company's Q3 earnings were "fantastic", in turn nicely bringing down the stock's P/E to just now 345.8x. And comparably as you already know, the only other two S&P 500 constituents classified as being in the sub-industry category of "Automobile Manufacturers" are Ford (P/E now 26.1x) and General Motors (P/E now 7.7x). But a shiny object that rolls, too, is a beautiful thing. Peter "Techie" Thiel has just opined that the soaring price of bits**t is indicative of inflation being at a "crisis moment" for the economy. 'Tis not ours to question this notion; rather 'tis beyond our pay grade to understand it. What we do understand is that THE time-tested (understatement) indicator and mitigator of inflation -- i.e. Gold -- is priced at such an attractively low level versus where it "ought" be (i.e. 3981 per our opening graphic's decree), that never again such a beautiful opportunity shall we see! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com

US tech stocks under pressure ahead of FED speeches While US stock markets continued to reach new all time highs and after the FED announced it would be starting its QE tapering in last week's meeting, we are seeing some increased selling pressure at the start of the week with US futures slightly down. This comes after Elon Musk announced over the weekend that he would be selling 10% of his Tesla shares (worth around $21 billion) depending on the results of a poll he held on Twitter, this in turn worried some investors who noted that selling such a significant stake could create significant downward pressure on the share price. On the other hand, it is worth noting that due to the elevated trading volume that Tesla shares experience, any potential impact could be significantly mitigated if the CEO were to spread that sale across several weeks. Finally, today's FED speeches could shed some light on the central bank's outlook heading into the final part of the year and could further elaborate on last week's decision to begin tapering and how that may impact stocks in the near future as the central bank attempts to not worry investors.  Bitcoin approaches all time high as cryptos climb higher After some time spent consolidating in the $60,000 range, Bitcoin has managed to break through the upper limit of the trading range and resume the upward move with the main crypto currency approaching it's recently reached all time high as it trades around $66,000. This positive sentiment is echoed across the majority of other coins with the total market cap once again nearing the $3 trillion mark and with Ethereum once again reaching a new high. While we have seen Bitcoin impact other crypto currencies in the past, a break past the previous all time high could lead to a significant increase in volatility and a potential domino effect as more investors enter the market or reallocate their funds. Download our Mobile Trading App:   Google Play   App Store  

US indices retreat as Tesla drags market Wall Street interrupted a winning series with the S&P 500 index closing lower for the first time in 9 days and with the Nasdaq being the worst performing index after it was pressured significantly by the plunge of Tesla shares, caused partly by comments made by the CEO Elon Musk in which he indicated the possibility of selling a portion of his shares if a twitter poll were to decide accordingly.  Today, investors await US CPI inflation data which is expected to show an increase of 5.8% y/y and which could potentially influence the FED to further adjust it's QE tapering after it's announcement in the most recent central bank meeting. Furthermore, earnings reports from Disney and Beyond Meat could also be worth keeping an eye on after this earnings season has proved to be surprisingly positive for the majority of companies.  Marks and Spencer posts strong Q3 results  M&S H1 results indicated a significant rebound in sales and a performance recovery which could be attributed to underlying improvements in all main businesses along with a reduction of net debt as the company has managed to effectively adapt to changing conditions. Better than expected financial results, along with a clear plan to continue expanding thanks to more partnerships and store openings, continue to provide reassurance to investors who may be finally looking past the noticeable impact the pandemic has had on the business in recent times.

S&P 500 pause finally went from sideways to down, and might not be over yet. Credit markets aren‘t nearly totally weak – tech simply had to pause, so did semiconductors, and the Tesla downswing took its toll. Value though recovered the intraday downside, and VIX retreated from its daily highs – that may be all it can muster. I‘m looking primarily at bond markets for clues, and these reacted to the PPI figures with further decline in yields.At the same, inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating. As stated yesterday:(…) The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks. To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 finally declined, and the very short-term picture is unclear – is the dip about to continue, or more sideways trading before taking on prior highs? It‘s a coin toss.Credit MarketsHYG recouped some of the prior downside, but the LQD and TLT upswings give an impression of risk-off environment. Sharply declining yields aren‘t necessarily positive for stocks, and such is the case today.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver look like briefly pausing before the upswing continues – miners are pulling ahead, and the ever more negative real rates are powering it all.Crude OilCrude oil bulls continue having the upper hand, and oil sector is also pointing at higher black gold prices to come. Energy hasn‘t peaked by a long shot.CopperCopper went at odds with the CRB Index, but that‘s not a cause for concern. It‘ll take a while, but the red metal would swing upwards again.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are briefly consolidating, and a fresh upswing is a question of shortening time. SummaryS&P 500 remains momentarily undecided, but the pullback shouldn‘t reach far on the downside – the bears are having an opportunity to strike on yet another hot inflation numbers. This isn‘t transitory really as I‘ve been telling you for almost 3 quarters already. Needless to say, the fire under real assets is being increasingly lit – more gains in commodities, precious metals and cryptos are ahead as inflations runs rampant on the Fed‘s watch.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Summary:  Equity markets charged higher in the US session to close at new record highs, and the upside extended further in the futures market overnight. In FX, the recent USD strength eased slightly, while oil prices are creeping back higher despite the recent fears of strategic reserve releases. Markets are nervously awaiting the announcement of who US President Biden will nominate to head the Fed after the current Powell term ends in February. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equities pushed to new all-time highs yesterday led by technology stocks and strong macro figures across manufacturing surveys and job market data such as jobless claims. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading around the 16,560 level in early European trading with the 16,500 being the intraday day support level. A recent survey among institutional investors shows that a majority is believing in the transitory inflation narrative which can help explain why investors in equities are looking through the latest inflation pressures. EURUSD and EURGBP – the beleaguered euro finally bounced back a bit after its recent remarkable slide, although it is tough to see what could engineer a reversal of the move below the 1.1500 level, which is the key chart resistance now, although Biden announcing Brainard as his pick to head the Fed next February could drive considerable short-term volatility. To stop the euro from a persistent slide, we would need a very different tone from the ECB than it has delivered recently, with no real opportunity to do so until the December 16 ECB meeting. With power prices and a new Covid wave weighing on the outlook, the ECB will very likely be happy to stay firmly dovish. USDJPY – the highs for the cycle near the psychologically important 115.00 look safe as long as US treasury yields at the longer end of the curve remain rangebound, but trading above that level could get volatile if it is broken, as some options structures may be linked to its breaking or not breaking. The next test for the price action is clearly the Fed Chair nomination that appears imminent – possibly today or over the weekend (more below in What are we watching next?). Gold (XAUUSD) has spent the week trading within a relatively narrow range between $1850 and $1870 as it awaits a fresh catalyst following last week’s breakout. The impressive rally that occurred despite headwind from a stronger dollar has stalled with bond yields picking up and the market wondering how the US Federal Reserve will manage the current inflation spike. Silver and especially platinum have both struggled to keep up with gold while ETF investors have yet to show any interest in accumulating exposure. All developments raising the risk of a retracement towards the $1830-35 key area of support. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSDEC21) managed to recover yesterday after the market brushed aside the potential negative price impact of a US SPR release. US attempts to attract wider support from other major importing countries seems to have fallen flat, except for China who is “working” on a release. Having dropped more than five dollars since speculation began, the market has concluded for now that the price impact of a release could be limited. The market, however, may still have to deal with the recent updates from EIA and IEA, in which they both forecast current tight market conditions could start to ease early next year as well as renewed Covid-related reductions in mobility. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). Yesterday’s 10-year US TIPS auction stopped through, pricing at a record low yield at -1.145%. It is a signal that investors are ever more concerned about inflation risk.  The Treasury also sold 4-week and 8-week T-Bills. While the latter was priced in line with the Reverse Repurchase facility, 4-week T-Bills priced with a yield of 0.11%, more than double the RRP rate. As we approach the day in which the Treasury will run out of cash, we expect volatility in the money market to increase, while long-term yields will remain compressed as they will serve as a safe haven. In the meantime, the move index continues to rise indicating that the bond market remains on the hedge. What is going on? Central Bank of Turkey cut another 100 basis points from the policy rate, lira plunge extends. The Turkish lira has lost more than 10% versus the US dollar this week and trades well over 11.00 after Turkish President Erdogan earlier this week declared himself once again against high interest rates, which he believes cause inflation. Central bank chief Kavcioglu, who is seen as doing Erdogan’s bidding, cut rates for a third time by 1.0% to take the policy rate to 15%, but with the Turkish lira losing over 10% this week alone and more than 30% since Erdogan fired the prior more hawkish central bank head in favour of Kavcioglu, inflation will run far beyond the rate. Not even some guidance that the easing cycle may conclude in December was enough to halt the lira’s slide. US Nov. Philly Fed survey hits 39.0, a very hot reading and fourth highest ever - with Prices Paid at 80 and just missing the 42-year high of 80.7 in June, although the Prices Received was at 62.9, the highest since 1974. Special survey questions in the Novemer  survey included one on inflation expectations, with firms expecting a median 5.3% increase in their own prices, and an increase in wages of 4.8%. The median forecast for 10-year inflation was 3.5%, up from the 3.0% the last time the question was asked in August. The Bloomberg Agriculture Index hit a fresh five-year high this week with food prices likely to stay high in 2022 with labor shortages, La Ninã weather impacts, surging cost of fertilizers being the common denominator across the sector. Recent gains being led by coffee, which we highlighted earlier in the week as a commodity currently seeing multiple price supportive developments. Wheat is heading for a nine-year high in Chicago while hitting record highs in Europe with inventories tumbling amid strong demand from importers and now also a rain threat to the soon-to-be harvested Australian crop. Soybeans have seen a strong bounce after the latest WASDE report showed a tighter than expected outlook for the coming year, and following a recent rush of Chinese buying from the US and South America. Apple doubles down on self-driving cars. The company is aiming to develop fully autonomous driving capabilities for cars by 2025 under the project name Titan. Apple has developed its own chip and is aiming to soon have a car on the roads for testing. However, delivering self-driving cars is a difficult endeavor with Uber Technologies having sold its unit and Waymo (Google’s unit) has been struck by fatigue and key people leaving the project. Tesla is also still struggling to deliver self-driving cars. What are we watching next? Who will US President Biden nominate to head the Fed next February? Powell is still seen as more likely to get the nod that Brainard by roughly two to one, and this Fed Chair nomination issue is hanging over the markets, as the current Fed chair term ends in early February and from comments made earlier this week, an announcement could be made any day now. One uncertainty that would come with a Brainard nomination is the potential difficulty of having her nomination approved by the Senate. The nomination news could generate significant short-term volatility on the choice of the nominally more dovish Lael Brainard over current Fed Chair Powell, though we see little difference in the medium-longer term implications for monetary policy, and the Fed is likely to get a prominent new regulatory role either way (under Brainard or someone else if she is nominated to replace Powell). Vote on $1.7 trillion US fiscal bill today in the House of Representatives after the Congressional Budget office said the bill, which focuses on social spending and climate initiatives, would add some $367 billion to the US Federal deficit (around 1.5% of current US nominal GDP) over the next 10 years. Earnings Watch – there are no important earnings today and this earnings week has been good in the US and Europe, while a bit more mixed among Chinese companies. The list below shows earnings releases next week. Monday: Sino Pharmaceutical, Prosus, Zoom Video, Agilent TechnologiesTuesday: Xiaomi, Kuaishou Technology, Compass Group, Medtronic, Analog Devices, Autodesk, VMWare, Dell Technologies, XPeng, HP, Best Buy, Dollar TreeWednesday: DeereThursday: AdevintaFriday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – ECB President Lagarde to speak1200 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak1330 – Canada Sep. Retail Sales1715 – US Fed Vice Chair Clarida to speak on global monetary policy coordination Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher

Powell vs Brainard Fed chair nomination  Covid trends and restrictions in Europe US core PCE inflation (Thursday at 2 am AEDT) RBNZ and Riksbank central bank meeting US cash markets shut Thursday for Thanksgiving (Pepperstone US equity indices still open)  Eurozone PMI (Tuesday 20:00aedt) – ECB speakers in play BoE speakers to drive the GBP – will they cast doubt on a December hike? With Covid risks on the rise in Europe and ultimately restrictions being implemented we’ve seen renewed selling interest in the EUR, and the oil-exporting currencies (NOK, CAD, MXN). Certainly, the NOK was the weakest G10 currency last week, and GBPNOK has been a great long position – a pair to trade this week, but consider it is up for 9 straight days and has appreciated 5.2% since late October.  I questioned last week if the divergence in EURCHF plays out, and the break of 1.05 negates that, suggesting staying short this cross for now as the CHF is still a preferred safe-haven.  EURUSD has been in free-fall EURUSD has been in free-fall and will likely get the lion’s share of attention from clients looking for a play on growing restrictions and tensions across Europe. The pair has lost 3.5% since rejecting the 50-day MA on 28 Oct and has consistently been printing lower lows since May – predominantly driven by central bank divergence and a growing premium of 2-year US Treasuries over German 2yr - with the spread blowing out from 78bp to 128bp, in favour of USD. For momentum, trend followers and tactical traders, short EUR remains attractive here.  It will be interesting to see if we see any pickup in shorting activity in EU equities – notably the GER40, with the German govt warning of lockdowns ahead. A market at all-time highs (like the GER40) is a tough one to short, but if this starts to roll over then I’d go along for a day trade. There is a raft of ECB speakers also to focus on, notably with President Lagarde due to speak on Friday.  Playing restrictions through crude While we can play crude moves in the FX, equity and ETF space, outright shorts in crude have been looking compelling. Although we see SpotCrude now sitting on huge horizontal support and a break here brings in the 50-day MA. Of course, as oil and gasoline fall, the prospect of a release of the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) diminishes, however, the Biden administration could use this move lower move to their advantage and capitalize to keep the pressure on.  (SpotCrude daily) A rise in restrictions also means market neutral strategies (long/short) should continue to work, and long tech/short energy has been popular. We can express this in our ETF complex, with the XOP ETF (oil and gas explorers) -8.1% last week and that works as a high beta short leg. Long IUSG (growth) or the QQQ ETF against this would be a good proxy on the opposing leg. In fact, looking at the moves in Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon, and we can see these ‘safe haven’ stocks are working well again, as is Tesla although for different reasons.  Stocks for the trend-followers For the ‘buy strong’ crowd, I have scanned our equity universe for names above both their 5- and 20-day MA AND at 52-week highs. Pull up a daily chart of any of these names - they should nearly always start at the bottom left, and end top right. Playing the RBNZ meeting tactically By way of event risks, the RBNZ meeting (Wed 12:00 AEDT) is one of the more interesting events to focus on. Will the RBNZ raise by 25bp or 50bp? That is the question, and of 19 calls from economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) we see 17 calling for a 25bp hike – yet the markets are fully pricing not just a 25bp hike but a 43% chance of 50bp – from a very simplistic perceptive if the RBNZ hike by ‘just’ 25bp, choosing a path of least regret, then we could see a quick 25- to 30-pip move lower in the NZD. The focus then turns to the outlook and whether the 8 further hikes priced over the coming 12 months seems to be one shared by the RBNZ.  Traders have been keen to play NZD strength via AUD, as it is more a relative play and doesn’t carry the risk on/off vibe, which you get with the USD and JPY. I’d be using strength in AUDNZD as an opportunity to initiate shorts, especially with views that RBNZ Gov Orr could talk up the possibility of inter-meeting rate hikes.  GBP to be guided by the BoE Chief The GBP is always a play clients gravitate to, with GBPUSD and EURGBP always two of the most actively traded instruments in our universe. A 15bp hike is priced for the 16 Dec BoE meeting after last week’s UK employment and inflation data, but consider we also get UK PMI data (Tuesday 20:30 AEDT), and arguably, more importantly, speeches from BoE Governor Bailey and chief economist Huw Pill – perhaps this time around expectations of hikes can be better guided – although, a bit of uncertainty into central bank meetings is very pre-2008 and makes things a little spicy/interesting.  (BoE speakers this week) GBPUSD 1-week implied volatility is hardly screaming movement, and at 6.5% sits at the 10th percentile of its 12-month range. The implied move is close to 130pips, so the range at this juncture (with a 68.2% level of confidence), although I multiple this by 0.8 to get closer to the options breakeven rate. So at this stage, 100 pips (higher or lower) is the sort of move the street is looking for over the coming five days, putting a range of 1.3557 to 1.3349 in play – one for the mean reversion players. Personally, I would let it run a bit as that volatility seems a little low, and a break of 1.3400 could see volatility pick up. I’d certainly be looking for downside if that gave way.  Happy trading.

Summary:  Interest rate sensitivity came back roaring yesterday pushing down all of our growth baskets. Yesterday's move shows the potential for a correction in US technology stocks should the US 10-year yield continue to rapidly advance towards the highs from March. We also show how the Nasdaq 100 and STOXX 600 move in opposite direction during large up or down days in the US 10-year yield. Growth baskets look awfully vulnerable Yesterday’s move in the US 10-year yield of 8 basis points made it the 10th biggest move higher in US yields this year. Back in March when technology stocks were under pressure we wrote a lot about interest rate sensitivity in growth stocks as their present value are derived from expected cash flows further into the future than the typical MSCI World company. If interest rates rise faster than future growth expectations then the net effect is negative on the present value and more so for growth stocks as they have a higher duration. We saw downside beta (higher sensitivity) in all of our growth equity baskets with the gaming basket down 2.3% and the worst performers being the E-commerce and Crypto & Blockchain baskets down 4.2% and 5.1% respectively. This tells you a lot about the sensitivity and given the drawdown in technology stocks back in March, we could easily experience a 15-20% drawdown in technology stocks. The local highs from March in the US 10-year yield is the key level to watch for a breakout and a new trading environment. With all the options activity in Tesla dwarfing the combined options activity in FTSE 100 constituents, we believe Tesla will be at the center of the next risk-off move in technology. Nasdaq 100 vs STOXX 600 are yin and yang of interest rates We have previously tried to calculate the interest rate sensitivity, but this time we are pursuing a different approach. We look at the past 231 trading days this year and group the 1-day difference in the US 10-year yield into deciles. In order to measure interest rate sensitivity we calculate daily excess log returns for Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and STOXX 600 against the MSCI World Index and compute their average daily excess return for each decile. As the barplot shows, there is significant negative excess return in Nasdaq 100 in the 1st decile (the 10% days with the highest positive difference in US 10-year yield) and significant positive excess return in STOXX 600. This makes perfect sense because Nasdaq 100 is high duration growth stocks and STOXX 600 has a clear value tilt towards financials, energy and mining which exhibit much lower duration. The pattern is completely reversed in the 10th decline (days with large negative difference in US 10-year yield). The other eight deciles do not show the same clear spread between Nasdaq 100 and STOXX 600. In other words, if interest rates suddenly move aggressively higher then growth portfolio will take a serious hit and hence why we recommend investors to improve the balance between growth and value stocks, or said differently reduce the equity duration.

Equities 2021-12-10 00:00 4 minutes to read Summary:  Markets are facing speed bumps again as investors await key inflationary numbers and the Feds meeting outcome, key catalyst that will ultimately change market dynamics, with fiscal stimulus being taking away. The US benchmark the top 500 stocks fell from record high territory, falling for the first time in 4 days, while the ASX200 fell for the second day, dipping below its 50 day moving average. Growth names are being sold down and safe haven assets, bonds, the USD, the JPY, are gaining appeal. It is for three important reasons. Here is what you need to know and consider, plus the five elements to watch today. Firstly, investors are holding their breath ahead of key events: Friday’s US inflation data (tipped to show inflation rose 6.8% YOY in November), plus we are also seeing investors pre-empt that the Federal Reserve next week, will map out tapering and interest rate hikes for 2022. A poll by Reuters showed that 30 of the 36 economists expect the Fed to hike rates sooner than thought, rising rates four times from the third quarter of the year 2022 to the second quarter of 2023 (expecting rates to be 1.25-1.50%). This explains why investors took profits from nine of the major 11 US sectors overnight. So growth stocks and sectors that thrive in low interest rates; consumer discretionary, real estate and information technology, saw the most selling as a result. From a stock perspective Tesla fell 6%, Semiconductor giant Advanced Micro Devices, and Etsy-the e-commerce vintage store, both fell 5%, and chip maker Nvidia fell 4%. If you look at Saxo Markets themes that we track, you can also see the most money on a month-on-month basis, has come out of semiconductors, while the other themes we track are posting monthly gains. Secondly, it’s critical to be aware, the UK Prime Minister announced restrictions to curb Omicron’s spread -  so the UK entered new work-from-home guidance, that could cost the UK economy $2.6 billion a month (according to Bloomberg). Meanwhile, a study by a Japanese scientist found the new variant to be 4.2 times more transmissible in its early stage than delta. As such some companies are responding like Lyft saying their workforce can work remotely in 2022, while Jefferies asked staffers to WFH. This means, travel and tourism stocks could see short term pressure, Australian and US stocks that are exposed to the UK could also see pressure, while oil could see demand weakness here. Plus, it could be time to again rethink exposure to the office property sector, as it’s a likely to remain squeezed, while industrial and logistics real estate remain supported given the likely new shift to WFH. Thirdly – be aware of volatility. A measure of this, VIX CBOE Volatility Index rose for the first time in four days, rising back above the 50 day average. Volatility has fallen from its 12-month high and remains contained right now as Pfizer said its vaccine can neutralize the new COVID strain Omicron after three doses (two doses offer protection again severe disease). However, keep your ears to the ground. If tomorrow’s inflation data from the US is worse than expected, expect volatility to spike, and growth stocks to see further selling and expect safe haven assets (USD, bonds, USDJPY) to gain more attraction. Aside from the above – here’s 5 things to watch today; Firstly - let's go over Fortescue Metals (FMG) 1.FMG’s CEO, Elizabeth Gains just announced she is standing down, right in the thick of iron ore having a murky outlook. It’s not been an easy 12 month for FMG holders. FMG trades 7% lower this year, but it’s a far cry from its all-time high, down 30% from its peak as iron ore price remains in a bear market (down 40% from May). 2. FMG’s trading range has been restricted for two weeks as the world holds its breath to learn more about China’s property sector. FMG shares have broken out above their 50 day moving average but its trading has been even more so restricted over the last three days as its stock hit a key resistance level awaiting news from China. If good news comes, FMG could break out higher. But it looks murky. Majority of FMG revenue (94%) comes from iron ore, and its majority sold to China (90%) (unlike BHP that now diversifies its sales to other countries). And now… we are getting mixed signals from China, making iron ore’s outlook look hazy. 3. On the positive side; week-on-week Australian iron ore exports are up. China has increased its monthly imports of Australian iron ore in November, more than expected. This has supported the iron ore price rising 8.9% this week. 3. But on the negative side - Evergrande, one of China’s biggest property developers was just officially downgraded -labelled a defaulter by Fitch Ratings after failing to meet two coupon payments after a grace period expired Monday. This may now trigger cross defaults on Evergrande’s $19.2 billion of dollar debt. Also at the same time JP Morgan downgraded its outlook for iron ore expecting the iron ore to fall 7% to $92, while Citi expects seaborne iron ore prices to fall 60-$80/t in 2022 on Chinese policy changes. 4. However, Fortescue has been in the news this week, for its shift to a green future. Was this a tactic? A smoke Bomb? Yesterday FMG announced its Future Industries department signed a pact with the Indonesia to explore hydrogen projects. The day before Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) and AGL Energy (AGL) teamed up to explore repurposing NSW coal-fired power plants and turning them into green hydrogen production facilities – to hopefully create renewable electricity production, 250 megawatts (which will generate 30,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year). AGL and FMG will undertake a feasibility study to repurpose AGL’s Liddell and Bayswater power stations, that both accounted for 40% of NSW’s carbon dioxide emissions. Sheesh. Secondly  – Australian analyst rating changes to consider ANZ AU: Reiterated as a Bell Potter BUY, PT $30.00, RRL AU: Regis Resources Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT A$2.50 EBO NZ: EBOS Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT NZ$43.14 FMG AU: JPMorgan downgrades FMG from Overweight to Neutral, dropping its PT from $22 to $20. RIO AU: JPMorgan downgrades RIO from Overweight to Neutral, dropping its PT from 113.00 to 102. MIN AU:  Reiterated as JPMorgan hold/neutral, dropping its PT from $47 to $40 Thirdly  - what else to watch today Annual General Meetings: HMC AU, PDL AU, PH2 AU, SOL AU Other Shareholder Events: AOF AU, HMC AU THL NZ: Tourism Holdings Halted in NZ Pending Proposed Transaction ADPZ NA: APG Buys 16.8% Stake in Ausgrid from AustralianSuper EBO NZ: Ebos Successfully Raises A$642m From Share Placement Fourthly - Economic news out 8:30am: (NZ) Nov. Business NZ Manufacturing PMI, prior 54.3 8:45am: (NZ) Nov. Card Spending Total MoM, prior 9.5% 8:45am: (NZ) Nov. Card Spending Retail MoM, prior 10.1% Fifthly - Other news to keep in mind: Australia Seen Facing Steeper Borrowing Costs If Slow on Climate RBA Likely to Stick With QE Until Election Over, BofA Says      ---   Markets - the numbersUS Major indices fell: S&P 500 -0.7% Nasdaq -1.7% Europe indices closed lower: Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.6%,London’s FTSE 100 lost 0.2% flat, Germany’s DAX fell 0.3%Asian markets closed mixed: Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.1%, China’s CSI 300 rose 1.7%. Yesterday Australia’s ASX200 fell 0.3% Futures: ASX200 hints of a 0.14% fall today Commodities: Iron ore rose 1.3% to $110.50. Gold fell 0.4%, WTI crude fell 2% to  $70.94 per barrel. Copper fell 1.4% Currencies: Aussie dollar trades 0.4% lower at 0.7146 US. Kiwi down 0.3% to 0.6788 per US$ Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield fell 3.5bps to 1.4871%,Australia 3-year bond yield fell 0.8bps to 0.95%, Australia 10-year bond yield rose 6bps to 1.68%

Tesla (TSLA) stock continues to slide as Friday sees 6% loss. Tesla (TSLA) now nearing key $1,000 support and pivot. Tesla (TSLA) is likely to move quickly to $910 if the stock breaches $1,000. Tesla stock continues to remain under increased selling pressure as markets take a risk-off approach in the current environment. The emergence of the omicron covid variant appears to have put the brakes on the latest rally but the move had become overdone anyway and some correction was necessary. While 2021 has been the year to buy dips, is this one different? We think not and reckon now is the time to wade back in but we take a differing approach here with Tesla (TSLA). The stock has had a standout 2021 and is likely to suffer from now into year-end. The temptation of profit taking is just too strong here. Technically $1,000 is key. Holding will put in place a bullish double bottom and make us change our call but we, for now, remain bearish and see $1,000 breaking, leading to a sharp acceleration to $910. Our daily chart for Tesla (TSLA) above shows just how much pain the stock has taken this past couple of weeks. Tesla was nearing gains of 80% for 2021 in early November but now is back to a gain of 45% for the year so far. Still a strong outperformance against the benchmarks. Tesla (TSLA) stock news The most anticipated of product launches, that of the cybertruck, has been delayed to the end of 2022 according to a Twitter post from CEO Elon Musk. He gave more details about the proposed cybertruck saying it will have four motors, one for each wheel, and will be able to crab sideways. Elon Musk will give more details on Tesla's next earnings call. China sees a recall for some Tesla cars with a report in Electrek stating "According to a statement from China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), Tesla Shanghai filed a recall plan for 21,599 Model Y EVs manufactured in the country. The automaker cited issues pertaining to the strength of front and rear steering knuckles, stating they may not meet the automaker’s design requirements". Also of note is Elon Musk selling another $1 billion worth of stock, while Cathie Wood of ARK also is still trimming her funds holding in the name. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast $1,000 is huge, break and it is likely straight to $910. Hold and we would expect more all-time highs before year-end. It is that simple in our view. This one is big. $910 closes the gap from the whole Hertz parabolic move and markets love to fill gaps. Holding on the other hand confirms a double bottom which is a powerful bullish reversal signal. We would need some confirmation with either a stochastic or MACD crossover or a bullish divergence from the RSI. So far we have none of these, making a break lower more likely in our view.

Tesla emerges unscathed from another equity sell-off on Tuesday. TSLA is likely to break higher on Wednesday as buyers return. Tesla CEO Elon Musk takes a bite out of Apple. Tesla (TSLA) stock can do no wrong in 2021, and it avoided another market meltdown on Tuesday. While panic ensued following Powell's remarks about the taper and inflation, TSLA held firmly in the green. Equity indices finished nearly 2% lower on Tuesday, but Tesla shares closed at $1,144.76 for a gain of 0.7%. This was another strong outperformance for a stock that is up 62% year to date. Contrast that with the Nasdaq, up 25 % for 2021, and the S&P 500, up a similar amount. 2021 has been the year of the electric vehicle, and Tesla paved the way for others to follow, notably Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID). Our chart above shows the strong correlation between Tesla and Lucid with both stocks putting in a stellar second half for 2021. Tesla (TSLA) stock news Elon Musk is nothing if not entertaining, and on a slow news day for Tesla he livened things up by taking a pop on Twitter toward Apple. Don’t waste your money on that silly Apple Cloth, buy our whistle instead! — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 1, 2021 The Apple cloth he is referring to is a polishing cloth available from Apple for $19. Tesla recently launched a Cyberwhistle for what reason? Who knows, but it is currently sold out. At $50 for a whistle, it is not exactly cheap. It seems people just love a Tesla product. Apple was no slouch either on Tuesday as the stock set all-time highs. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast The triangle formation still holds and a breakout is awaited. A triangle pattern is usually a continuation pattern, and Wednesday could provide the catalyst to break higher. The stock has consolidated well despite some strong headwinds: notably, Elon Musk selling a Cybertruck load of stock, and Tesla not performing well in a recent reliability test. It did however score highly on customer satisfaction, and investor satisfaction is also high given the strong performance. We expect more all-time highs this week even with the surrounding Omicron volatility. Our view will change if Tesla cracked below key support at $1,063. TSLA 1-day chart

Tesla stock underperforms strongly on Thursday as continued profit-taking strikes blow. Equity markets remain nervous as VIX inches up again on Thursday and indices lose ground. TSLA also feels pressure from more sales by CEO Elon Musk. Tesla (TSLA) shares lost a lot of ground on Thursday as investors cashed in recent gains ahead of the year end. TSLA has to be included in practically all indices, passive and active funds, and the temptation to book some strong profits ahead of the new year is just too tempting. Added to this is the strong retail investor base who will also be much more inclined to sell out before the holiday season, and the stock has been coming under heavy selling pressure. Call options have been a strong feature of the rise in Tesla this year, especially the last six months. Call option volumes have been steadily decreasing. Tesla (TSLA) stock chart, 15-minute As we can see from the chart above, December has not been kind to Tesla stock so far, and we see this continuing. Tesla (TSLA) stock news Added to profit-taking and Elon Musk selling stock was news yesterday that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is scrutinizing a feature in some Tesla versions that allow users to play video games in the car. Obviously, this would be a distraction to the driver. We are assuming it is a passenger feature but nonetheless still distracting. Elon Musk sold another $963 million worth of Tesla this week, and Cathie Wood of ARK is still selling small amounts. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast Somehow $1,000 is still holding in there as support, but surely today is the day when that will finally break. Then it is a pretty clear path in terms of support straight to $910. $1,000 is psychological, but it has been tested quite a few times and the more a level is tested the weaker it becomes. Tesla is putting in a series of lower highs and knocking on the door of $1,000 each time. So the bounce from $1,000 can be said to be weaker each time. We also have a falling Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirming the price action. Tesla (TSLA) stock chart, daily

  The S&P 500 index got back above the 4,700 level on Friday after gaining almost 1%. The only way is up now? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video. Nasdaq 100 Remains Close to the 16,400 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index got back to the 16,400 level last week. It is the nearest important resistance level, marked by some previous local highs. Tech stocks remain relatively weaker, as the Nasdaq 100 is still well below the Nov. 22 record high of 16,764.85. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely slightly extend its last week’s advances this morning. However we may see a short-term profit-taking action at some point. There have been no confirmed short-term negative signals so far, and we may see an attempt at getting back to the late November record high. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open slightly higher this morning but we may see a consolidation above the 4,700 level. Our short-position is very close a stop-loss level, and we’ll close it if it breaks above it again. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Tesla (TSLA) just cannot break below key support at $1,000. Equity markets remain supportive with more all-time highs for the indices. Tesla (TSLA) is still seeing selling from CEO Elon Musk. Tesla shares are still holding above the key $1,000 level as we approach the final lap of the year. Tesla (TSLA) is up an impressive 44% so far this year in what has been the year of the mega tech names. Indeed Goldman Sachs notes this morning that five stocks account for more than half of the S&P's return since the end of April. Those names are all familiar big tech, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Apple. This so-called narrowing of the returns or a lack of market breadth is often cited as a bearish factor. Goldman adds that the market cap of the top 10 stocks in the S&P make up 31% of the total S&P 500 market cap. That is the highest since 1980. While all this is beginning to sound increasingly alarmist fear not Goldman said. They estimate that this narrowing trend is set to continue and to stick with growth stocks into 2022. Tesla (TSLA) should see more benefits if that strategy is maintained, adding further to the large headache the stock gives value to investors. Price/earnings multiples are out the window with Tesla. It is pure momentum. Tesla (TSLA) chart, 15 minute Tesla (TSLA) stock news Not exactly stock specific but Elon Musk is Time magazine Person of the Year for 2021. Time CEO said, "Person of the Year is a marker of influence, and few individuals have had more influence than Musk on life on Earth, and potentially life off Earth too.".In relation to EV's the CEO added: "a market that Musk almost single-handedly created, seeing long before others the demand for clean-energy transportation that the world’s climate crisis would eventually propel." In other more specific news, Tesla has had to stop accepting orders for new Model S and Model x orders outside North America, according to electrek. Tesla is rumored to have a large backlog of orders. Demand obviously remains strong as more and more countries offer incentives for electric vehicle purchases. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast We are still forecasting Tesla to return to the gap at $910 before year-end. $1,000 held again on Friday but the level is seeing increasing bombardment. The more a level is tested the weaker it becomes. We fear the next time it will go and that will signal a sharp move to $910. The stock is already well capped by the 9 and 21-day moving averages and only a break above $1063 will change our bearish stance. Tesla, daily chart

Macro 2021-12-14 08:35 6 minutes to read Summary:  Risk sentiment soured yesterday, with some attributing the market nervousness to uncertainty on how hawkish a pivot the Fed is set to make at the FOMC tomorrow, although Fed rate expectations for next year as expressed in the most liquid futures have eased from recent highs. That meeting is the most significant major macro event risk for the 2021 calendar year, although important ECB and BoE meetings are set for Thursday. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - yesterday was a very disappointing session for US technology stocks with Nasdaq 100 futures looking to push higher early during the session but ended on the lowest close in four trading sessions. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading around the 16,110 level this morning with the 50-day average around the 15,810 level as the key support level to watch on the downside should risk-off continue. EURUSD – the EURUSD supermajor continues to coil in a tight range ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow and ECB meeting on Thursday, both of which are set to bring refreshed forecasts for the economy and policy. The FOMC meeting is likely to carry more weight in terms of the market reaction, especially if the Fed waxes more hawkish than expected (more below) and takes Fed rate expectations for next year to new highs for the cycle. The lines in the sand on the chart include the 1.1186 lows of November, while the recent pivot highs of 1.1355 and 1.1384 bar the upside, with 1.1500 a more structural resistance/pivot zone. AUDUSD – watching the US dollar closely over the next couple of sessions, particularly in the wake of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and what it brings in the way of a crystallization of the Fed’s hawkish shift (more below) and in the market reaction. If the meeting brings a spike in market volatility, traditionally risk-correlated currencies like the Aussie could show high beta to swings in the US dollar in either direction (I.e., if the Fed waxes more hawkish than expected and this triggers risk-off and a stronger USD). AUDUSD recently broke down through the prior 2021 lows near 0.7100 and tested the huge 0.7000 level before staging a sharp bounce. That 0.7000 level could serve as a kind of “bull-bear” line from here. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN22) has settled into a relatively narrow range with Brent finding resistance at $76, the 21-day moving average while support remains the 200-day moving average at $73.15. OPEC in its monthly oil market report maintained their 4.2 million barrels per day demand growth outlook for 2022 with current omicron-related weakness being offset by a strong recovery during Q1. The Saudi energy minister said the energy transition will cause an oil-price spike later this decade while also warning traders against shorting the market at a time where large speculators have reduced their Brent crude oil long to a 13-month low. On tap today we have IEA’s Monthly Oil Market Report. Gold (XAUUSD) remains stuck just below its 200-day moving average at $1794 with focus on what 20 central bank meetings this week will deliver in terms of inflation fighting measures at a time where the omicron variant continues to cloud the economic outlook. With US inflation rising at the fastest pace since the 1980’s, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting remains the top event. The market is currently pricing in three rate hikes next year with the first one due around June. The other semi-investment metals of silver (XAGUSD) and platinum (XPTUSD) both struggling with the latter’s 850-dollar discount to gold, near a one year high, potentially deserving some attention. US Treasuries (TLH, TLT). The US yield curve bulled flatten yesterday with 10-year yields falling by 7bps to test support at 1.41%. To contribute to this move was news of the first omicron death in the UK, and the winding done of short US Treasury positions before the end of the year. Price action will remain volatile ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, where Powell is expected to announce an acceleration of the pace of tapering. The focus is going to be also on the Dot plot, where longer term projections might be moved higher, pushing up the long part of the yield curve. However, long-term yields can move higher only that much, as omicron distortions will continue to keep them compressed. It looks likely that 10-year yields will continue to trade rangebound between 1.40% and 1.70% until the end of the year. European sovereign bonds (IS0L, BTP10). The Bund yield curve bull flattened yesterday led by safe-haven buying amid concerns over omicron. Italian BTPS gained the most as the market pushes back on interest rate hikes in 2022. The focus, however, continues to be on the ECB meeting on Thursday. An announcement of the end of the PEPP program in March 2022 is widely anticipated. What’s not clear is whether it will be announced that bond purchases will be compensated by another scheme, such as the APP. It is likely that the ECB will stall as members are torn between inflation and a new wave of Covid infections. If investors feel the support of the central bank is fading, European yields might resume their rise with the periphery and Italian BTPS leading the way. Yet, the move will be contained as yields will remain compressed by covid concerns. UK Gilts (IGLT, IGLS). The BOE might not deliver on a 10bps interest rate hike this week as members are divided concerning Covid restrictions. Michael Saunders, one of the most hawkish MPC members, said that he will need to think about it twice before voting for a rate hike. As expectations for interest rate hikes in the UK are the most aggressive among developed economies. It is possible that if the central bank does not hike, the Gilt yield curve will be steeping with short-term Gilts gaining the most as the market pushes back on next year’s rate expectations. What is going on? China reports first omicron variant case of covid - bringing fears of supply chain disruptions due to the country’s zero tolerance policy on virus cases that can mean profound shutdowns in response to outbreaks. Chinese property developers under new pressure, with the focus this time on Shimao Group Holdings, whose Hong-Kong listing is down over 75% this year and down over 30% over the last week on concerns that a deal between the company’s business units is a sign of financial stress for the company. The company’s 2030 USD-denominated bonds lost almost 13% overnight as the yield rose above 10%. Other Chinese property developer shares were also under pressure overnight. Tesla shares down 5% as growth stocks are under pressure. Tesla shares pushed below $1,000 yesterday adding further pressure to related assets in the Ark Innovation ETF and Bitcoin is also seen lower this morning. Elon Musk sold $907mn worth of shares yesterday according to a filing overnight in order to pay taxes on another round stock options that were exercised. Toyota finally pushes into EV. Japan’s largest carmaker wants to compete with Tesla and Volkswagen announcing $35bn of investments into battery electric vehicles showing the first sign that Toyota is acknowledging that this is the future of the industry. Toyota has so far pursued hybrids on the ground of being more economical, but this push into BEV with 30 new models validates BEVs once and for all, even though Toyota is still saying that it does not know which technology will win. US Harley-Davidson set to spin-off EV motorcycle unit – the plan to spin off Harley’s EV business via a SPAC saw Harley-Davidson shares spike 19% before surrendering most of the gains. Harley’s LiveWire EV business unit will combine with SPAC AEA-Bridges Impact to form a new publicly traded company. The move is meant to take advantage of the premium the market is willing to pay for pure-play EV companies. EU diplomats suggest time running out on Iran nuclear deal - as Iran is progressing rapidly toward enriching uranium for potential use in nuclear weapons. The diplomats worry that without a breakthrough soon, the original 2015 agreement “will very soon become an empty shell.” What are we watching next? The Wednesday FOMC as the year’s final major macro event risk. The FOMC meeting tomorrow is set to bring a very different monetary policy statement from the prior statement after the Fed’s clear pivot to inflation fighting mode. As well, the meeting will see an update of economic forecasts and interest rate policy forecasts (the “dot plot” in which 19 Fed members forecast where the Fed funds rate will likely be in 2022-24 and in the longer term). Most interesting will be the degree to which Fed members have raised their policy rate forecasts relative to what the market is predicting, which is for just under three rate hikes through the end of next year. Prior forecasts have generally come in lower than market expectations. The baseline expectation for the pace of QE “tapering”, or slowing of purchases, is that the Fed will double the pace of tapering, which would mean the Fed’s balance sheet is set to stop growing by the end of March. Anything that suggests a faster pace of tapering than this doubling (for example, a promise to wind down before March) and that hints that a hike at the March FOMC meeting is possible would be a hawkish surprise. The European Council meets on Thursday, and apart from having to deal with Covid-19 and the Russian threat on its eastern borders, the council is also set to decide whether investments in gas and nuclear energy should be labelled climate friendly. The design of the EU green investment classification system is closely watched by investors worldwide and could potentially attract billions of euros in private finance to help the green transition, especially given the need to reduce the usage of coal, the biggest polluter. Earnings Watch – the earnings calendar is getting very thin this week and no major earnings expected today. Wednesday: Inditex, Toro, Lennar, Heico, Trip.com, Nordson Thursday: FedEx, Adobe, Accenture Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Sweden Nov. CPI 1000 – Euro Zone Oct. Industrial Production 1100 – US Nov. NFIB Small Business Optimism 1300 – Hungary Central Bank Rate Decision 1330 – US Nov. PPI 1900 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr before parliament committee 2130 – API Weekly Report on US Oil and Fuel Inventories 2330 – Australia Dec. Westpac Consumer Confidence 0200 – China Nov. Retail Sales 0200 – China Nov. Industrial Production During the day: IEA’s Monthly Oil Market Report   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher

Bitcoin continues to cling to its 200-day simple moving average, calming the entire crypto market. In the past 24 hours, the total value of all cryptocurrencies rose 3.3% to $2.19 trillion. The Fear and Greed Index rose 7 points to 28, which it was a week ago. Bitcoin has stabilised near the $48K level, keeping almost equal chances for gains and declines. A meaningful move away from the 200-day moving average line in one direction or the other promises to kick-start a strong momentum. Today the financial markets are wary of the words of the Fed Chairman and the comments of the FOMC. Deviations from expectations can affect the whole financial world, including bitcoin. And through it, the entire spectrum of cryptocurrencies. Ether has been showing close to zero momentum since the start of the day, remaining at $3850. On the chart, it is easy to see the activation of the bears near the 50-day moving average: a sharp breakdown in early December when this line became a resistance. The significant exception was the DOGE. The coin soared more than 40% after Musk tweeted that Tesla was considering selling merchandise for this coin. The explosive growth here is more of a secondary effect of its low liquidity and knee-jerk reaction to the message of Twitter’s chief influencer. Overall, there is also a downtrend here, which has taken 40% off the price from November 8th. However, taking a step back, it is still worth remaining cautious about expectations from the Fed and market dynamics after the announcement. Bitcoin’s technical support and Ether’s attempts to hold near $4000 are more likely to be buyers’ last hope of maintaining the illusion of a bull market. Overall, however, cryptocurrencies have been in a downtrend for more than a month now. These are not sharp dips and short squeezes but methodical selling by funds, as they are very similar to the dynamics of traditional markets. Other coins, where there are few market professionals, have a general downward trend.  

Microsoft stock falls over 3% on Tuesday ahead of Fed. Tech stocks suffer as rate hikes hit high growth names. MSFT is close to all-time highs, volume remains elevated. Microsoft (MSFT) is pausing for breath near all-time highs as the market awaits Fed taper talk Wednesday. While high growth stocks may wait in trepidation, more established names such as Microsoft and Apple (AAPL) have continued to attract fresh investors. High growth usually means low profits, but this is certainly not the case for Microsoft or Apple. Indeed, recent research from Goldman Sachs demonstrated the divergence between mega tech names this year versus unprofitable tech names. Unprofitable tech names are down circa 20% for the year, while mega tech is up nearly 30%. The logic is sound – higher rates disproportionally hit high growth rates. By comparison, established mega tech are cash cows that offer huge profits, huge leverage, huge purchasing power and operate in a quasi-monopolistic stance whereby inflationary pressures can be passed on to consumers. GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT outperformance versus Nasdaq since the start of the year Microsoft stock news It used to be the case that consumer staples were the de facto defensive stocks that investors retreated to in times of stress. After all, we all need food for survival. Utility stocks also were well-used defensive mechanisms for much the same logic, basic necessity. However, with the advent of mobile technology, essentials are now seen as communication and news stocks. Big tech fulfills all these roles. Our smartphone is a means of communication, a means of news service, television, shopping, etc. We now view many big tech services as essential and ones we cannot live without. Combine this with huge revenue, in many cases monopolistic qualities, and piles of cash, and you have the perfect defensive stocks for the 21st century. This is why Apple actually appreciated during last week's Omicron sell-off. What we are currently seeing is high growth meme names taking a disproportionate hit ahead of the Fed. Think Tesla down again, and AMC and GME collapsing. The Nasdaq index was the underperformer on Tuesday. Microsoft stock forecast $318 is our key short-term pivot. Already MSFT has put in a lower high, albeit just below all-time highs. A break of $318 sets a lower low and puts a short-term trend in motion. We specify short term here. This is what most of you likely are interested in. The longer-term trend remains bullish, fundamentals are strong, earnings power is consistent and defensive qualities mentioned above can shield it from inflationary pressures. However, there are some bearish points to note for short-term swing traders. We have a decling MACD and RSI. We also have bearish divergences from both indicators, significantly so in the case of the RSI. Based on this we feel $318 is likely to break, and below we see support at $300. We base this not only on the round number theory but on the volume profile. Volume means price acceptance and support. MSFT 1-day chart

TSLA shares shot up 7.5% on Wednesday after Elon Musk claimed he was done selling. NHTSA investigates 580,000 Teslas over video game safety issue. Tesla secures four-year supply of graphite for battery anodes from Australian company. Tesla (TSLA) did not underwhelm those expecting a banner session on Wednesday. TSLA shares careened up 7.5% after Elon Musk added even more color to Tuesday's statement about soon ending his season of selling. Specifically, he said there were a few tranches left, but that he was "almost done." The stock is trading up 1% in Thursday's premarket at $1,019. Tesla Stock News: Tesla secures graphite supply Tesla secured the majority of battery-grade graphite from a new Louisiania processing plant owned by Australia-based Syrah Resources, according to Bloomberg. The processor will have an initial supply capacity of 10,000 short tons a year, and Tesla will have first right to any increased supply capacity. Graphite is used for battery anodes, and China currently produces most of the world's battery-grade graphite. Syrah Resources will supply its graphite from Mozambique on the other hand. Syrah says it could raise its output from Mozambique to 40,000 tons by the middle of this decade. Early Wednesday morning the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced a safety investigation into 580,000 Tesla vehicles sold since 2017 that come equipped with video games that can be played on the center console touchscreen. The NHTSA says that prior to December 2020, the games could only be played when the vehicle was in park. Starting a year ago, however, the agency claims the games were made available to the front passenger when the vehicle was in drive, which "may distract the driver and increase the risk of a crash," the NHTSA said. Musk's tweet on Wednesday that he was "almost done" with selling shares refers to his promise in early November that he would sell 10% of his stake in the EV maker. On a podcast on Tuesday, the Tesla CEO had said he had "sold enough" TSLA stock to meet his 10% goal. Wednesday's admission that he was "almost done" sounds closer to the truth, and some observers think he has sold about 15 million shares thus far with about 2 million to go. TSLA key statistics Market Cap $1.02 trillion Price/Earnings 330 Price/Sales 25 Price/Book 38 Enterprise Value $1.02 trillion Operating Margin 10% Profit Margin 7% 52-week high $1,243.49 52-week low $539.49 Short Interest 3% Average Wall Street Rating and Price Target Hold, $849.64   Tesla Stock Forecast: this is what a reversal looks like On Wednesday, Tesla's share price bounded past December's top trend line that has herded TSLA stock lower since December 1. Before the market opened on Wednesday, FXStreet wrote: "To confirm the reversal, TSLA price must close above the December 17 swing high at $960.61. Further confirmation that the three-week price decline is over would be a close above the December 16 high of $998.54." Indeed, the market has seen both levels broken in a single session. Now TSLA faces resistance at $1,020 from December 10. If bulls can break above this price, then the target will become December 8's $1,072 resistance point. Overpowering here will bring $1,165 into view, which provided resistance on November 30 and December 1. TSLA 1-hour chart

Summary:  Rivian has become a new phenomenon we have never seen before getting a $153bn market value with zero revenue booked. However, the company has pre-orders for around $9.4bn in revenue but even with optimistic assumptions the estimated cash flow from these orders can not even remotely justify the current valuation. Too high expectations are always a dangerous thing for investors and Rivian has taken speculation to a new level in EV stocks. In yesterday’s equity update, we wrote about the current bonanza in EV stocks with the 11 largest EV-makers in the world now worth more than the 11 largest ICE-makers. The recent IPO of Rivian has taken equity valuation and high expectations of the future to a whole new level. Rivian reached a market value of $153.3bn on yesterday’s close more than double the IPO valuation in just a few trading sessions. But here is the kicker, the EV-maker has never booked any revenue. This dwarf anything we have ever seen before and makes our bubble stocks look cheap. Source: Saxo Group Expectations are so high that Rivian can only disappoint Let’s look at some facts. Rivian is backed by Amazon which has made an order for 100,000 EDV (Rivian’s electric delivery van) with an attached exclusivity for the next 4-6 years from the first delivery with an option of first refusal. This is a key execution risk and could impact Rivian from diversifying their revenue. In addition, they have around 55,000 pre-order for their R1T and R1S trucks/SUV (for passengers). If we assume an average selling price of $50,000 for the vans, which is close to the normal price for a Ford van, and $80,000 on average for their passenger vehicles, then they have orders worth $9.4bn. If we assume that they can get to the same operating margin as Tesla has had in the last 12 months (9.6%) and we assume 25% cash tax rate, then this revenue constitute net operating income after taxes of $677mn. Assuming cost of capital of 10% (primarily equity financed with a high beta and early-start risk premium) and we play with the thought that this revenue/orders were a perpetuity and it could pass on inflation of 3% in the future, then this cash flow is worth $10bn today, a far cry from the current $153bn valuation. While these estimates are crude and not meant to provide the definitive answer to Rivian, it gives an idea of the expectations that the current share price reflects relative to what the company has in terms of orders. Expectations are so high that there is an elevated probability that EV-maker will disappoint investors. Ramping up production of EVs has proven to be difficult with only Tesla and Volkswagen looking to have found a way.

TSLA shares spiked 13.5% on January 3. Tesla announced 308,000 deliveries in the fourth quarter. Tesla stock almost closed a gap from early November, closing just shy of $1,200. Tesla's (TSLA) first trading session of the year was spectacular. A 13.5% gap up on the heels of a massive vehicle delivery beat seemed to even surpise the bulls. The close at $1,199.78 nearly filled the gap created by the gap down on November 8, and now TSLA shares are set to attempt the all-time high during the first week of 2022. Tesla Stock News: massive delivery beat Sunday's announcement that Tesla had delivered approximately 308,000 vehicles during the fourth quarter (a figure that may be revised higher once official Q4 earnings arrive during the final week of January) was well ahead of even Tesla's most bullish analyst and caused the massive upswing. The amateur analyst who uses the Twitter handle @TroyTeslike had forecast 289,000 deliveries, while Wall Street consensus had bet on 266,000. This positive news has all but left the market forgetting that Tesla is still dealing with a massive recall that came in right before the new year. Chinese regulators ordered Tesla to recall 19,697 Model S vehicles, 35,836 imported Model 3s and 144,208 Chinese-made Model 3 vehicles. This is part of a wide-scale recall with the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) that found the rearview camera can be damaged when the trunk is shut. Tesla is expected to recall a total of 475,000 Model 3 and Model S cars as a result. The recall amount is nearly equivalent to last year's delivery numbers. There is a bit of a kerfuffle continuing on Tuesday after it was reported on Monday that Tesla is opening a showroom in China's Xinjiang region, where the controversial detentions and reeducation of the Uighur minority carried out by the federal government has made it a focus of foreign human rights criticism. TSLA key statistics Market Cap $1.2 trillion Price/Earnings 330 Price/Sales 25 Price/Book 38 Enterprise Value $1.02 trillion Operating Margin 10% Profit Margin 7% 52-week high $1,243.49 52-week low $539.49 Short Interest 3% Average Wall Street Rating and Price Target Hold, $851.98   Tesla Stock Forecast: $1,243 is the focus TSLA shares are nearing the all-time high from November 4 of $1,243.49. With the premarket showing a small price rise to $1,205, the likelihood of achieving a new all-time high this week is high. The stock would only need to gain 3.7% to get there. To close the gap between November 5 and 8, TSLA stock needs to hit $1,208, which it likely will on Tuesday. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66, nowhere near overbought, especially for Tesla. Tesla price has a tendency to hinge on big psychological prices like $1,300. That is where Tesla is headed next. Mark my words. Support is at $1,117, $1,072 and $893. TSLA 1-day chart

Pressure on US tech stocks was a significant theme in US trading yesterday, dragging cryptocurrencies down. The Crypto market capitalisation adjusted 1.1% overnight to $2.05 trillion. Bitcoin is losing 2% overnight, down to $42.8K, and ether is losing about 1.5% to $3.3K. Other top coins are declining with much less amplitude, as investment fund darlings rather than crypto enthusiasts have been hit the hardest. The Doge, which has become accepted as a means of payment for some (inexpensive) Tesla goods, deserves a separate story. Some have noted that goods for Doge are selling out even faster than for dollars. On this news, the coin is adding 18% today at $0.20, near the highs for the month. This news is a good illustration of crypto's continued penetration of corporate culture. On the other hand, Tesla won't necessarily hold these coins forever. People will be more active in spending their investments in DOGE. The technical view of the ETHUSD is disappointing because the selling intensified earlier in the week while it tried to break the 200 SMA again. The dip and consolidation below suggest a break of the bullish trend formed in May 2020, when the pair consolidated above this line. In a worst-case scenario, it could be a road to $1300-1700, about half of the current levels. It is doubtful that in this bear market cycle, the price of ether will lose 95% of its peak, as it did in 2018, which could completely nullify the rise from 2020. Bitcoin's disposition is no less worrisome. A death cross forms in it as the 50-day dips below the 200-day. At the same time, the price is below these averages, which reinforces the bearish signal. Attempts earlier in the week to form a rebound are encountering more substantial selling, further indicating seller pressure. The bearish picture in Ether and Bitcoin makes the entire cryptocurrency sector appear cautious in the near term. Individual growth stories, like DOGE, run the risk of quickly losing strength today when the overall backdrop turns negative.

Tesla gains on Friday as Nasdaq finished in the green. TSLA stock closes at $1049.61 for a gain of 1.75%. Tesla shares are still in a downtrend but holding above the key pivot. Tesla (TSLA) returned to the green on Friday as the NASDAQ took the crown for best performing index, while the Dow suffered a bank burnout. Bank stocks reported on Friday in the form of Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), and the results were decidedly mixed. Citigroup and JPMorgan fell heavily and dragged the Dow down with them. Yields though remained under control, allowing the Nasdaq to breathe lighter and make some headway after recent losses. This helped Tesla back into the green, but the stock remains choppy and sideways in motion. Tesla Stock News The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that a Tesla lawyer asked Cooley LLP, an international law firm, to fire one of its lawyers who had previously worked at the US SEC. The lawyer in question had supposedly interviewed Elon Musk in the SEC investigation in 2018 into Musk after he claimed on Twitter that he had gotten funding in place to take Tesla private. The SEC investigation led to Elon Musk and Tesla each paying $20 million fines. According to the WSJ article, a Tesla lawyer asked Cooley LLP to fire the attorney late last year, but Cooley did not follow through on the request. Tesla has used alternative law firms on several cases since December. Tesla and Cooley LLP have not yet responded to CNBC requests for comment. This may add to pressure on the stock despite Friday's rebound. Earlier in the week, investors and Cybertruck fans were left disappointed with a further delay to the truck's production timeline release, which has now been pushed to 2023. Tesla Stock Forecast Irrespective of the news, we have an indecisive chart here. TSLA stock's most recent high was a lower one than the previous and has put in a series of lower lows. This means it is currently in a short-term downtrend. $980 is the key pivot that will signify more losses. Breaking $980 makes the target $886. Holding above $980, and the target is $1,200. However, we have a declining Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). The MACD has also crossed into negative territory. Tesla chart, daily

TSLA finished Thursday in the green, gaining 0.06% to $996.27. Equities had gyrated sharply but fell as the close approached. Tesla stock outperforms as Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fall sharply. Tesla (TSLA) managed to hold onto intraday gains but only just barely on Thursday. Stocks (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) had opened well and were up some 1% for the main indices at the halfway stage of Thursday, but jitters resurfaced as the finish line approached. Investors began dumping positions, and the main indices closed in the red. The S&P 500 shed 1.1%, the Dow closed 0.89% lower and the Nasdaq closed down the most at 1.34% in the red. Tesla however just held onto a green day, up 0.06%. Given that it is a volatile name and a high beta one, this was a strong outperformance. Tesla Stock News: bearish Bank of America forecast a worrying sign Tesla (TSLA) stock may have held its ground in anticipation of its Q4 earnings, which are due out next week. Bank of America and Piper Sandler fought it out with conflicting analyst reports. Bank of America took a dim view of Tesla's market share forecasts, saying it would drop from 69% to 19% of the EV market due to legacy automakers ramping up EV production. However, Piper Sandler noted that it sees Tesla beating delivery estimates for the year due to factories in Texas and Berlin ramping up production. For now, it appears investors are putting more focus on those delivery numbers and anticipating a strong earnings report. The Bank of America report is more alarming, but it does have a longer term outlook with the market share fall predicted for 2024. Tesla Stock Forecast: $886 is a futher downside target Yesterday's move has kept Tesla above the key short-term pivot at $980, but note that yesterday's high price was stuck at the 9-day moving average and Tesla failed to break through. This gives us more belief in an imminent break of $980. If this level does go, then the move to $886 will likely be quick due to a lack of volume. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

Today’s highly anticipated FED decision could have wide ranging implications across markets as it could alter the current state of economic policy and ultimately favour some markets over others. While there are several scenarios of what’s expected today from the US central bank, the most likely one seems to be a rate increase in March while maintaining QE for the time being , which many investors could see as a slight step back compared to the tone used by the FED recently. On the other hand, if the FOMC decides to surprise investors with a more hawkish than expected approach, it could lead to significant reactions across stock markets and cryptocurrencies even after the recent corrections we have already seen so far. The FED must be very cautious today as it appears to be stuck in a challenging situation, unable to ignore record inflation levels while also having a market that relies heavily on its fiscal policy and any misstep could have greater than expected consequences. Cryptocurrencies attempt to recover ahead of FOMC decision Cryptocurrencies and tech stocks have seen the majority of the volatility and pullbacks from recent uncertainty noticed across a wide range of markets to different extents. However, due to their exceedingly volatile nature, cryptocurrency prices moved significantly with the total market cap falling around $1 Trillion as the majority of top 100 tokens dropped around 20% reaching the lowest level in several months and shaking investor confidence in the sector. On the other hand, we are seeing an attempt to recover today with most tokens trading slightly higher ahead of the FOMC decision as some investors expect the US central bank to back off after seeing the massive reaction it’s recent announcements have had. While it remains to be seen whether the FED will go through with its plan, it is clear that a significant increase in volatility has the potential to scare many investors who may not be interested in projects for the long term and are mainly attempting to speculate on their prices for short term gains. Investors await Tesla earnings report While many investors will be focusing on the FED’s key decision today, earning season has also been a main topic of discussion with several major companies already publishing their reports. We have seen a variety of contrasting results with some exceeding expectations while others disappointed and ultimately reflected that in a significant share price drop. Tesla will be publishing it’s results today and investors will be looking closely to ascertain if the company is living up to the forecasts or if it also appears to be struggling with rising inflation and supply chain issues. A better than expected result could renew investor confidence in the company that has been able to impress many since being listed on the S&P 500 not long ago, while a disappointment could impact future prospects in addition to share price in the short term.  

The year 2022 is seemingly a mixed bag, even as markets start reopening. The year looks promising, though, with issues like inflation and COVID to contemplate. Historic rallies in 2021 after lockdowns are looking to inspire trading in various industries, with some assets to look out for by investors. Growth will surely return at some point, but so will disappointing instances where tumbles will dominate trading desks. The S & P's historic gains of 30 percent dominated the press at the close of 2021, making investors using Naga and other optimistic platforms. The ended year had one of the longest bull markets. However, the Fed rate tightening and the direction the pandemic will take are some things to expect, notwithstanding that the stock market might grow by a whopping 10 percent in 2022. Trading Movements In Week One 2022 European markets have opened with a lot of optimism in 2022, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed at 489.99 points; this is 0.5 percent higher than the opening figure. The European benchmark was some percentage lower than the overall S&P 2021 performance, though with a surge of 22.4 percent. Record gains in the stock markets have relied on the positions taken by the governments during the pandemic. In the USA and Europe, increasing vaccination rates and economic stimulus measures have improved investor confidence. However, there are indications for more volatility in 2022, a situation investors must watch keenly. There has been little activity in London markets in the first week of 2022, while in Italy, France, and Spain gains of between 0.5-1.4 percent made notable highlights. European markets had diverse industries drive up the closing gains witnessed; the airline sector, in particular, has had a significant influence. Germany’s Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) had an impressive 8.8 percent jump while Air France KLM (AIRF.PA), a 4.9 percent gain. Factory activity is another factor to thank for the first week's gains all over Europe. Noteworthy, the Omicron variant influenced trading in the entirety of December, but the reports that it is milder than Delta has energized market activities coming into January. S&P and DOW Jones 2022 First Week Highs Across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a record high, highlighting a similar aggressiveness as the European markets. While the jump was industrial-wide, Tech stocks continued to dominate, as Apple finally touched the $3 trillion valuation, though for a short time. Tesla Inc. (TSLA.O) posted a 13.5 percent jump thanks to increased production in China and an unprecedented goal to surpass its target. The US market, like the European market, is also in a fix; the Omicron variant of COVID-19 continues to cause concern with the wait-and-see approach, the only notable strategy. Currently, every country is reporting a jump in the number of Covid cases, with the UK going above 100K cases for the first time and the US recording some new records as well. School delays and increased isolation by key workers will surely debilitate the markets, with the global chip shortage another point to contemplate. However, markets can still ride on the increased development of therapies to help fight Covid. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (CDC) has been quick, as now children can have their third doses as well. Industries to Look Out For In 2022 European automakers have seen early peaks, while the airline sector has also picked up fast. In the US, tech shares continue to dominate, and 2022 might witness new records never seen before. However, the energy sectors have also dominated the news in 2021, and in 2022; the confidence in them will continue to rise because of an anticipation of stabilization in energy prices. The same goes for crude oil prices. Regardless, shareholders will continue watching the decisions by the Federal Reserve, a review in the current interest rates will surely tame inflation. Conclusion 2022 will see its highs and lows in investments. Some assets will make the news and investors will be keen to use any information to make key decisions. Tech will continue to shine, but it is important to anticipate the direction of the pandemic, as it will be an important factor in investor decisions.

Tesla stock swung around violently post the earnings release. TSLA shares quickly dropped 6% despite beating earnings estimates. Tesla then recovered to trade down 2% as buyers stepped in. Tesla (TSLA) swung around pretty wildly in the after-hours market on Wednesday following its earnings release. The stock dropped 6% fairly rapidly despite beating on the top and bottom lines. Buyers then went bargain hunting as the market struggled to grasp what metric to focus on. By the time things settled down, we were nearly back to where things started. At the time of writing, Tesla is back to $930 in the premarket on Thursday, so only $7 or less than 1% lower from where Tesla stock was trading at the close of the regular session and before the earnings drop. Tesla Stock News Tesla beat on earnings per share (EPS), coming in at $2.54 versus the $2.26 average estimate. Revenue also beat forecasts, coming in at $17.72 billion versus the $16.35 billion estimate. This was a pretty strong performance beat on both top and bottom lines. Margins also held up well, coming in at 30.8% versus estimates for 30%. So far so good. However, Tesla then mentioned that its factories were not at full capacity and it saw this continuing into 2022. Supply chain issues were to blame, and investors took a dim view of this and sold the stock sharply lower. However, buyers then stepped in as arguments over demand versus supply issues surfaced. The demand profile remains strong and Tesla stuck to its strong outlook for demand going forward. If it can address supply issues and with new factories in Texas and Berlin coming on line, it may be in a position to drive more supply to meet demand. It is certainly better to have a problem meeting demand than it is to have a lack of demand. This is a case of "if you build it, they will come" for Tesla going forward. Tesla Stock Forecast TSLA bottomed out at $879 after the release, but in reality it spent very little time down there. This is interesting to us on a technical view as it prints a higher low than Monday's sell-off and puts in place the potential for a bottoming formation. From the 4-hour chart below we can see this price action in play. The lows from Monday at $855 are our short-term pivot. Above there things have a chance to turn bullish in a more medium-term view. Below and it is on to $813 to test the 200-day moving average. Tesla chart, 4 hourly

US stocks recorded a last-minute rally on Friday, but gains remain on jeopardy as the hawkish Fed expectations and the Russia-Ukraine tensions are weighing on the risk appetite. The geopolitical tensions, in fact, push energy prices higher, further boosting the inflation fears and the Fed hawks. The consensus now is that the Fed would raise the interest rates five times this year. In this environment, US dollar is certainly a good place to park, while gold is doing surprisingly poorly despite having most factors that would normally support a better pricing on its side. In the stock markets, value stock investors are finally being praised for their patience. At today’s episode, I have an interesting comparison of Warren Buffet and Cathi Wood’s performances over the past two years! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 Market update 1:34 Energy prices jump on Russia-Ukraine tensions 3:10 USD consolidates gains, XAU performs surprisingly bad 3:55 Warren Buffett vs Cathie Wood 5:43 Big Tech gains at jeopardy as Fed hawks gain field 8:45 This week's economic calendar: ECB, BoE, RBA & OPEC 9:25 This week's corporate calendar: Google, Facebook & Amazon Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

Tesla stock tumbles after beating earnings estimates TSLA shares hit by concerns over supply chain issues. Apple and big tech could turn the market next week. Tesla (TSLA) staged a modest recovery on Friday, but the real damage was done on Thursday when the stock shed nearly 12%. Friday's move was not even that impressive given Tesla's high beta, a fact that would usually see it bounce significantly more than the major indices. As we know well by now high, growth is not the sector of choice this year, and Tesla does straddle this space. Investors are moving back to more traditional sectors and metrics for their portfolios, and the era of high flying growth is coming to an end, for now at least. We view this as a positive event, stretching too far would have resulted in an ugly snapback or bubble popping most likely. This stabilisation should continue for the year with one or two speculative dead cat bounces along the way. We may just get one of those next week as the remainder of big tech gets a chance to continue on from where Apple led. Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are all reporting earnings this week. Positive earnings should steady sentiment, and this would then also likely spread to some high growth names. However, in the longer term, we expect balance sheets rather than growth to outperform this year. Tesla Stock News Tesla is not just pure growth, although it is managing to do that rather impressively if the latest results are anything to go by. It will stay with the pace, while other start-up EV manufacturers are more likely to fade away. Tesla created the EV space and remains the brand leader. This will likely not change since it has positioned itself as a premium brand. It will likely face more competition, but we do not see it losing quite as much market share as that forecast by Bank of America. Forecasting a drop from 69% to 19% market share in the space of two years does seem a bit headline-grabbing. The problem for Tesla is its valuation got too ahead of itself, so it is likely to underperform in this new environment despite continued strong earnings and revenue growth. Tesla Stock Forecast The bearish trend is now well-established. Thursday's losses only followed on from what we identified back in early January. The spike higher failed, and then it created a lower low, which confirmed the mid-December low. Even Friday's price action set a lower low than Thursday before the bounce set in. Resistance at $987 is last week's high and is first up. A close above that is significant and a new bar above that will signify a small short-term uptrend. Otherwise, the medium-term downtrend remains in control with support at the 200-day moving average, which sits at $814 currently. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

November 22, 2021  $CHF, $USD, BOE, China, Currency Movement, FOMC, Japan, Philippines, Russia Overview:  The US dollar has come back bid from the weekend against most currencies following the talk by a couple of Fed governors about the possibility of accelerating the tapering at next month's FOMC meeting.  The weekend also saw protests against the social restrictions being imposed by several European countries in the face of a surge in Covid cases.  The Swedish krona, yen, and sterling are the weakest, while the dollar-bloc currencies are resisting the greenback's tug. Most of the freely accessible and liquid currencies among emerging market currencies, including Russia, Hungary, South Africa, and Mexico, are heavy. At the same time, the Turkish lira recoups a little of the ground lost last week, and the Chinese yuan shrugged off apparently warnings from the PBOC to post its first gain in three sessions.  Equity markets in the Asia Pacific area mostly fell, though China and South Korea were notable exceptions.  Europe's Stoxx 600 snapped a six-week advance last week but has begun the news week with a small gain through the European morning.  US futures are trading higher.  The bond market is heavy, with the 10-year US Treasury up about three basis points to around 1.58%.  European benchmark yields are 2-3 bp higher.  Gold finished last week on a softer note and edged lower today to trade below $1840 for the first time since November 10.  Resistance is around $1850.  News that Japan may join the US to release oil from reserves saw January WTI slip below $75 but recover back above $76.  It met the (38.2%) retracement of the rally from the late August low near $60.75.  European natural gas (Netherlands) is lower for the fourth consecutive session, during which time it has fallen around 11%.   Iron ore extended the 5.6% gains before the weekend with another 4% gain today.  On the other hand, copper rose 3.3% in the past two sessions and has come back offered today.  Lastly, the CRB Index eased less than 1% last week and is off two of the past three weeks.  Its seven-month rally is at risk.   Asia Pacific Despite China's economic success, it remains clumsy and heavy-handed.   As the US and some other countries were considering a symbolic diplomatic boycott of the winter Olympics in Beijing, the tennis star Peng Shuai is being censored or worse for allegations against a former Politburo member.  Meanwhile, at the end of last week, three Chinese coast guard vessels launched water cannons against two Filipino boats sent to resupply a garrison on the Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal), which is within the Philippines' Kalayanan Island Group.  The aggressive harassment brought a rebuke by the US, which reminded Beijing of its mutual defense agreement with Manila.   The Philippines will attempt to bring provision again this week.  Separately, note that after being notified by the US of the military nature of the Chinese construction project in the UAE, the project has been halted.   With the yuan at six-year highs against a trade-weighted basket, Chinese officials have begun expressing more concern about the one-way market.  The FX Committee, composed of industry participants, wants members to do a better job monitoring prop trading, and it follows the PBOC works of caution about risk management at the end of last week.  In its quarterly monetary review, the PBOC made a few tweaks that suggest it could ease policy.   Japan's Prime Minister Kishida acknowledged that releasing oil from its strategic reserve was under discussion.  China indicated it would tap its reserves last week for the second time since September, while it is still under review in the US.  Currently, Japan keeps reserves that are intended to last 90 days, while the private sector must hold reserves to last 70 days, according to reports.  Japan is considering selling oil and using the funds to subsidize the rising gasoline prices.  It may also reduce the duration of the reserves.   The dollar is straddling the JPY114.00 level as its hugs the pre-weekend range (~JPY113.60-JPY114.55).  The JPY114.30 area offers initial resistance, while the focus in early North America may be on the downside.  Still, it appears to be going nowhere quickly.   The Australian dollar finished last week at its lowest level since early October.  That low, just below $0.7230, held, and momentum traders covered shorts, helping lift the Aussie back to session highs near $0.7260.  A move above here allows gains into the $0.7270-$0.7290 area.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3952 today.  The market (Bloomberg survey median) had projected a CNY6.3931 fix.  Although the dollar is softer today, it held above last week's lows as consolidation is evident.  It remains within the range set last Tuesday (~CNY6.3670-CNY6.3965).   Europe With the Swiss franc appreciating to six-year highs against the euro, it would not be surprising to see the SNB intervene.  The first place to look for it is in the weekly domestic sight deposits.  They rose by CHF2.58 bln, the second-most in the past three months.  Recall the mechanics.  The SNB buys euros but just sitting on them distorts the allocation strategy.  So it needs to either sell some euros for dollars or Swiss francs for dollars.  If it does the latter, its overall level of reserve growth accelerates.  Many suspect it will do the former, i.e., sell some euros for dollars.   The US continues to warn that Russia's troop and equipment movement is consistent with a rapid large-scale push into Ukraine from multiple spots simultaneously.  The suggestion, according to reports, is that the operation could take place early next year.  Both Ukraine and Georgia are seeking more US assistance.  Recall Russia invaded Crimea in February 2014.   Bank of England Governor Bailey has toned down his rhetoric, though he blames the market for misconstruing his remarks last month.  He warns now that next month's decision is finely balanced and that the price pressures are emanating primarily from supply-side disruptions for which monetary policy is less directly effective.   The implied yield of the December 2021 short-sterling interest rate futures contract is slipping for the fourth consecutive session.  Today's yield of about 21 bp is the lowest since early October.  The yield peaked in mid-October near 62 bp.  Lastly, while progress on the UK-EU talks has been reported, the two sides are still far apart.  Talks between Frost and Sefcovic will resume at the end of this week.   The prospect that a new German government could be announced this week has not helped the euro very much.  The single currency, which was sold through $1.14 and $1.13 last week, is struggling to find a base.  It has held above the pre-weekend low near $1.12560 but only barely (~$1.1260), and the attempt to resurface above $1.1300 was rebuffed. A move above $1.1320 may suggest some near-term consolidation, perhaps ahead of Wednesday's US PCE deflator report.  That said, tomorrow's flash PMI composite reading for the eurozone is expected to have weakened for the fourth consecutive month.  Sterling could not rise 15 ticks from its pre-weekend close (~$1.3450).  The downside was also limited (~$1.3420).  It caught a bid in the European morning that could extend into the US morning.  Still, the $1.3460-$1.3480 band may be a sufficient cap.  The market does not appear inclined to see trigger the $1.3395 option that expires today for about GBP425 mln.   America President Biden's announcement on the Fed's leadership could come as early as tomorrow, as he is set to deliver a speech on the economy tomorrow.  But it probably would be a separate announcement.  Given the expiration of the terms of the two vice-chairs, changes among a few of the regional presidents, and the challenging situation, President Biden is likely to follow Treasury Secretary Yellen's recommendation to re-appoint Powell.  Moreover, a tradition goes back to Volcker of one party making the initial nomination and the other party approving of another term.  This helped "depoliticize" monetary policy.  Trump broke with that tradition, and as Biden has done in a number of other areas, is restoring some traditions.  Lastly, we suspect that if Bernanke or Yellen, or Brainard were at the helm of the Fed, there would not be substantive monetary policy differences.   Vice-Chair Clarida and Governor Waller joined regional Fed President Bullard to suggest that Fed may consider accelerating the pace of tapering at next month's FOMC meeting.  We suspect others will be sympathetic after this week's October PCE and deflator news.  The economy is rebounding in Q4 from the disappointing 2% annualized pace in Q3 (which is likely to be revised higher on Wednesday), and a critical part is consumption.  Personal consumption expenditures are expected to rise by 1% after a 0.6% increase in September.  The headline PCE deflator, which the Fed targets 2% on average, which Governor Brainard reportedly helped devise, is expected to jump above 5% from 4.4% in September.  The core rate is expected to exceed 4%.  No Fed officials are slated to speak this week, but the minutes from the November 3 FOMC meeting will be released on November 24.   El Salvador caught the crypto world's attention again.  It is the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender.  It announced plans to issue a $1 bln bond, and half the proceeds will be used to buy Bitcoin (~2000 coins).  The other half will be used to fund infrastructure projects to build the infrastructure of more Bitcoins.  It will offer a 6.5% coupon, which is lower than current dollar issues.  It looks like one pays a lot for BTC exposures.  El Salvador is rated BB+ of the equivalent by the top three rating agencies.  This makes El Salvador bonds risky, to begin with, and adding Bitcoin on top of that would seem to preclude most retail and institutional investors.  It seems like a desperate act that only an impoverished country can try.  The idea that other countries will quickly follow seems to be a stretch.  There is a good reason why Tesla had few corporate followers to buy Bitcoins with reserve funds.  The same principle would seem to apply to countries.   The economic calendar for North America begins off slowly this week.  Today's main feature is the US existing home sales report.  A pullback after September's heady 7% gain is expected, the strongest in a year.  After a weak start to the year, existing home sales have recovered.  They averaged 5.66 mln (seasonally adjusted annual rate) last year and have averaged more than 6.0 mln for the past three months.  The Canadian dollar has weakened for the past four weeks.  It briefly poked above CAD1.2660 ahead of the weekend to reach its best level since early October.  The greenback is in about a 15-tick range on either side of CAD1.2645 today.  Support is seen in the CAD1.2600-CAD1.2620 area, but it may take a break of CAD1.2585 to boost confidence that a high is in place.  The US dollar rose 1.5% against the Mexican peso last week.  It was the third weekly gain in the past four weeks.  The greenback is trading above last week's high (~MXN20.89) and looks set to test the high set earlier this month near MXN20.98.  Lastly, the Chilean presidential election will go to a run-off next month, as widely expected between the far-right and far-left candidates.   The dollar snapped a five-week pullback against the Chilean peso last week, rising 3.6%, the most in three months.  Year-to-date, the peso is off nearly 14.25%.   Disclaimer

On Monday, Bitcoin rose 5.5%, ending the day around $44,100. Ethereum added 5%, and other leading altcoins from the top ten also showed growing dynamics: from 4% (Solana) to 18.5% (XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 5.5% over the day to $2.10 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index has not changed, remaining at 39.2%. The Bitcoin chart continues to paint a bullish picture. With the price at $45K on Tuesday morning, BTCUSD is trading above the 50-day moving average just above the mid-January pivot area and above the down channel resistance level. At the same time, the RSI on the daily charts has not yet entered the overbought area, leaving room for further growth.  The same can be said about the entire cryptocurrency market, where the fear and greed index has reached a neutral point of 48 and is still far from the greed area. The next target for the bulls looks to be $48K, the December support area in December. Further targets are $49-50K, where the 200-day moving average and significant round level are concentrated. The XRP token soared amid reports of a significant approach to the resolution of Ripple's legal dispute with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).Cryptocurrencies briefly stopped responding to movements in US stock indices, which started the week with a decline. The purchases probably included retail investors, who were driven by the desire not to miss the beginning of the market growth (FOMO). However, their buying potential is unlikely to be enough if stock indicators intensify their decline and large institutional investors come into play, wishing to resume profit-taking. KPMG, one of the world's largest auditors, has added Bitcoin and Ethereum to its Canadian division's corporate reserves. This is the firm's first direct investment in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, at the end of 2021, Tesla received a loss of $ 101 million from a decrease in the cost of previously purchased bitcoins, which it spent $ 1.5 billion on. Previously, Elon Musk called the decision to acquire BTC as a reserve asset quite risky. 

TSLA drops nearly 5% on Friday as macro factors in charge. All EV stocks LCID, Chinese names suffer the same fate. Tesla once again is targetting its 200-day moving average. Tesla (TSLA) followed many EV names (all, if we are correct) lower on Friday as macro factors took charge over equity markets. The dominant theme so far in 2022 has been one of rising rates and inflationary pressures. This has led to high growth and tech names underperforming, while energy and financial stocks have been the place to be. That is likely to remain the theme for at least the next quarter if not also Q2. Russia and Ukraine tensions have pushed the oil price above $90, and financial stocks benefit from higher interest rates. Growth stocks, however, do not benefit from higher interest rates as investors look for businesses with cash. With higher interest rates, future cash flows become less valuable. So of the three names mentioned, Tesla, Rivian (RIVN) or Lucid (LCID), we would not want to currently be long any of them. We expect TSLA to perform best of the three due to its market-leading position and revenue, but this sector is out of favour and likely to remain so. Tesla Stock News The latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) confirms what we saw from Chinese EV companies earlier. Deliveries for January were down versus December. This is due to the lunar new year in China. Tesla sold 59,845 vehicles in January, down from 70,847 China-made vehicles in December. The Chinese electric vehicle market remains the largest EV market in the world, helped by government incentives and population demand. Tesla Stock Forecast Tesla remains in the strong downtrend identified earlier this year. $945 was tested multiple times as resistance and failed. This has resulted in the recent pullback. Now $824 remains as the 200-day moving average. Below we have trendline support at $752. The 200-day is the key level. Tesla has not closed below its 200-day moving average since June 2021. It has broken the 200-day on an intraday basis several times since but always failed to close below. Notice how volume has steadily been declining in Tesla this month, despite some hugely volatile days. This is indicative of a lack of conviction in the stock. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

Tesla bounces strongly on Tuesday as risk assets surge. TSLA stock gains just over 5% on Tuesday. Geopolitical tensions falling help risk appetites return. Tesla (TSLA) shares bounced strongly on Tuesday, eventually closing up over 5% in a strong day for equities. The stock market was buoyed by news of some Russian deployments returning to their bases. Russia then appeared to confirm this as hopes grew for a diplomatic solution. This saw an obvious bounce in equities (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) with the strongest names being those that were previously the weakest. Understandable, but is this gain sustainable? NATO this morning has said it sees no sign of Russian troops pulling back from the Ukraine border. NATO has said it sees Russian troop numbers still growing along the Russian-Ukraine border. This news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) still has legs. Volatility has been high as a result and will likely continue that way. Tesla Stock News The latest quarterly SEC filings have provided much information to pore over. In particular, Tesla, they do note some hedge fund selling. This is not too surprising given the record highs TSLA stock pushed on to before Elon Musk sold a stake. Benzinga reports that the latest filing shows Ray D'Alio's Bridgewater cutting its stake in Tesla. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest was regularly top-slicing her firm's stake in Tesla recently. CNBC also reported yesterday that hedge fund Greenlight Capital had made a bearish bet on Tesla shares. Greenlight, according to the report, has been a long time Tesla bear. Apart from those snippets though, macroeconomic factors are the main driver of the Tesla stock price currently. Electric vehicle stocks have not been a strong sector so far in 2022 as growth, in general, is out of favor with investors. This has led to steep falls in other names such as Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID). Both are at a much earlier stage of development than Tesla (TSLA) and on that basis, we would favor Tesla (TSLA) over them. But we must stress we would ideally avoid the sector entirely until perhaps the second quarter. Once markets have adjusted to the prospect of higher rates, some high-growth stocks may benefit. historical in a Fed (https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed) hiking cycle the main indices do advance but growth sectors struggle. Rivian so far is down 36% year to date, Lucid is down 24% while Tesla is the outperformer, down 12% for 2022. Tesla Stock Forecast We remain in the chop zone between the two key levels of $945 and $886. Breaking $945 should lead to a move toward $1,063. That would still be consistent with the longer-term bearish trend. Nothing goes down or up in a straight line. TSLA is unlikely to be able to fight the current overpowering macroeconomic backdrop of rising rates (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/rates) hitting high growth stocks. But breaking $945 is still significant in the short term and should see some fresh momentum. While $886 is significant, the 200-day moving average at $826 should have our real attention on the downside. Tesla has not closed below this level in over 6 months, so that would be significant and again lead to a fresh influx of momentum. Just this time though, it would be selling momentum. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily Short-term swing traders should note the volume momentum behind moves. Once volume dries up, Tesla tends to fall off intraday. From the 15-minute chart below, we have an opening gap from Tuesday down to $880. This is short-term support, but a break will see the bottom of Monday's range at $840 tested. Tesla (TSLA) 15-minute chart

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalated yesterday, sending gold to $1900 per ounce, but investors are calmer this morning, as planned talks between the US and Russia gives a certain relief before the weekly closing bell. But the risk taking will likely remain limited, offering a limited recovery potential to equities & cryptocurrencies. Oil on the other hand tanked despite the rising Ukraine tensions, rupturing a well-justified positive trend between geopolitical risks and energy prices. In the FX, the safe haven yen gained, the EURUSD remained steady as the macro pricing was put on hold. In individual stocks, Tesla tanked 5% after it sank to the bottom of the latest Consumer Report’s ranking. Ouch. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 Ukraine update 2:02 Gold up 2:48 Why is oil down?! 4:57 Market update 6:08 FX update 7:15 Bitcoin tests $40K support 7:41 US yields down 8:20 Tesla tanks on big ranking drop on latest Consumer Report Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

Tesla bounces strongly on Thursday as markets decide to ignore Ukraine. TSLA stock gains 4.8% on general market bounce back. Shares are up more than 2% in Friday's premarket. Tesla (TSLA) shares bounced strongly on Thursday after dropping off a cliff due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Tesla is now charging higher in Friday's premarket. TSLA stock bottomed out at $700 after opening just above it on Thursday, before spending the entire session climbing back to $800. The stock closed at $800.77, a surprising 4.8% above Wednesday. It is now up 2% in the premarket near $820. Tesla Stock News: Odd trades The latest news is a family affair. Trades made by CEO Elon Musk and his brother Kimble, who sits on Tesla's board, are being scrutinized by the Securites & Exchange Commission (SEC). The Wall Street Journal reports that Kimble sold $108 million worth of shares just one day before his brother Elon posted his infamous Twitter poll asking if he should sell 10% of his Tesla stake. Once the poll was answered strongly in the affirmative, Elon began selling. This caused an approximate 25% sell-off in the share price over the following month. Daiwa Securities Group, Japan's second-biggest investment bank, plastered an outperform rating on the stock due to what it said makes the company more attractive due to the Ukraine-Russia affair. The Japanese bank gave TSLA a $900 price target, writing that "higher oil prices and potential scenario of fuel shortages, especially in Europe, could accelerate the shift to EVs. While the start of production at the Berlin plant could be delayed, recent media reports of Tesla increasing capacity at its Shanghai facility gives it more flexibility to meet European demand." The bank also pointed to the company raising output at its Shanghai plant to 1 million units per year and increasing production to 500,000 units at its Austin plant. Currently, the Shanghai factory can produce about 450,000 units a year. One reason why increasing Shanghai output is key is that gross profit margins run at about 40% there, whereas the automaker's original factory in Fremont, California, has gross profit margins closer to 20%. Last but not least, Tesla has lost its Director of Engineering, Brian Dow, to Generac Holdings (GNRC), a maker of energy storage systems and batteries. Tesla Stock Forecast: Ukraine invasion provides $700 as support One benefit of the rollercoaster ride that hit markets on Thursday is that shareholders now know where long-term support sits. Ahem, it is $700. There must have been enough automatic buying there to spur the price higher since shares were pushed up steadily to $765 by midday. The $700 mark is, however, right in line with a descending bottom side trend line in place since November 10. The region around $945 is still the target to break back into bullish territory. This $945 mark has served as both support and resistance over the past four months going back to October. Before that, however, TSLA shares must close back above the 200-day moving average, which is now at $832.61. It broke through this moving average on Tuesday and may signal there is more downside ahead. TSLA 1-day chart

Now is the time for traders to adapt to higher volatility and rapidly changing market conditions. One of the best ways to do this is to monitor different asset classes and track which investments are gaining and losing money flow. Knowing what the Best Asset Now is (BAN) is critical for consistent growth no matter the market condition.With that said, buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat, for example, gained more than 40% last week.‘Panic Commodity Buying’ in Wheat – Weekly ChartAccording to the US Dept. of Agriculture, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of rice and 51% of wheat by mid-2022.Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Global commodities, commodity funds, and commodity ETFs are attracting huge capital inflows as investors seek to cash in on the rally in oil, metals, and grains.How does the Russia – Ukraine war affect global food supplies?The conflict between major commodity producers Russia and Ukraine is causing countries that rely heavily on commodity imports to feed their citizens to enter into panic buying. The breadbaskets of Ukraine and Russia account for more than 25% of the global wheat trade and nearly 20% of the global corn trade.Last week, it was reported that many countries have dangerously low grain supplies. Nader Saad, an Egypt Cabinet spokesman, has raised the alarm that currently, Egypt has only nine months’ worth of wheat in silos. The supply includes five months of strategic reserves and four months of domestic production to cover the bread needs of 102 million Egyptians. Additionally, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s economic minister, said on Thursday (3/3/22) that his country should keep “a low profile” regarding the conflict in eastern Europe, given that Israel imports 50 percent of its wheat from Russia and 30 percent from Ukraine.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The longer-term potential for much higher grain prices exists, but it’s worth noting that Friday’s close of nearly $12.00 a bushel for wheat is not that far away from the all-time record high of $13.30, recorded 14-years ago. According to Trading Economics, wheat has gone up 75.08% year-to-date while other commodity markets like Oats are up a whopping 85.13%, Coffee 74.68%, and Corn 34.07%.How are other markets reacting to these global events?Year-to-date comparison returns as of 3/4/2022:-9.18% S&P 500 (index), -7.49% DJI (index), -15.21% Nasdaq (index), +37.44% Exxon Mobile (oil), +20.08% Freeport McMoran (copper & gold), -20.68% Tesla (alternative energy), -24.49% Microstrategy (bitcoin play), -40.51% Meta-Facebook (social media)As stock holdings and 401k’s are shrinking it may be time to re-evaluate your portfolio. There are ETFs available that can give you exposure to commodities, energy, and metals.Here is an example of a few of these ETFs:+53.81% WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund+41.79% GSG iShares S&P TSCI Commodity -Indexed Trust+104.40 UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil+59.32% PALL Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium SharesHow is the global investor reacting to rocketing commodity prices and increasing market volatility?We can track global money flow by monitoring the following 1-month currency graph (www.finviz.com). The Australian Dollar is up +4.25%, the New Zealand Dollar +3.72%, and the Canadian Dollar +0.30% vs. the US Dollar due to the rising commodity prices like metals and energy. These country currencies are known as commodity currencies.The Switzerland Franc +0.96%, the Japanese Yen +0.35%, and the US Dollar +0.00% are all benefiting from global capital seeking a safe haven. As volatility continues to spike, these country currencies will experience more inflows as capital comes out of depreciating assets and seeks stability.We also notice that capital outflow is occurring from the European Union-Eurodollar -4.55% and the British Pound -2.22% due to their close proximity (risk) to the Russia - Ukraine war.www.finviz.comGlobal central banks will need to begin raising their interest rates to combat high inflation!Due to the rapid acceleration of inflation, the US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting two weeks from now. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16.What strategies can help you navigate current market trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals are starting to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Bitcoin slightly strengthened over the past day to 38,800 (+0.5%). Ethereum lost 0.8%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten range showed an amplitude from -2.4% (Avalanche) to +3.7% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 0.4% in 24 hours, to $1.73 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.3 points to 42.7%. The fear and greed index is at 21 (-2 points) now and is remaining in a state of "extreme fear". The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that Bitcoin updated its weekly lows around $37,500 today. Subsequently, the first cryptocurrency bounced up, briefly rising above $39,300 in the middle of the day on the news from Elon Musk. The CEO of Tesla said he had no plans to sell his cryptocurrencies. Musk tweeted that he owns not only Bitcoin but also ETH and DOGE. However, BTC did not show a strong reaction to this statement: during the American session, it levelled a slight increase against the backdrop of a fall in US stock indices. Dogecoin reacted to Musk's comment much more violently, jumping more than 7% at the time. According to CoinShares, institutional investors withdrew about $110 million from crypto funds last week, despite seeing the largest capital inflow in three months the week earlier. The European Union abandoned plans to introduce a virtual ban on mining based on the Proof-of-Work (PoW) mechanism. At the same time, Russian State Duma deputy Alexander Yakubovsky said that Russia has a real opportunity to create its own crypto exchanges.

Tesla stock surges on news of a potential stock split dividend.TSLA is up at $1,066 of +5.6% in Monday premarket trading.Tesla stock has rallied sharply from early March lows.Tesla stock (TSLA) is back to the top of the social media chatter on Monday, usurping GameStop and AMC in the process. The stock is surging this morning on news of a potential stock split dividend. Tesla previously did a 5-for-1 stock split back in August 2020, and other companies have followed suit, notably Amazon. This makes it easier for retail investors to own the stock when it has a more affordable share price.Tesla Stock News: Stock split imminent?Tesla's board of directors has already approved the plan to split the shares for a stock dividend and will put it to a vote of the shareholders. The news was well-received by retail shareholders who tend to be more active in the premarket than other holders. A stock dividend is exactly what it sounds like. Instead of receiving cash, shareholders receive new shares in the company. This means companies do not use up cash to fund the dividend. Stock dividends are usually dilutive to earnings per share (EPS) as more shares are in issue after the event. Tesla is up nearly 6% before the open. It is not all plain sailing though for the EV giant as more Chinese covid lockdowns are announced. Tesla will close its Shanghai giga plant for at least a day on the back of lockdowns in the city. Tesla Stock ForecastA powerful rally with the next target now set at $1,210. This would set up Tesla's (TSLA) stock to break to all-time highs. Currently, on the longer-term time horizon, the narrative is still bearish with a series of lower highs and lower lows. So breaking $1,210 turns Tesla bullish on all time horizons. Naturally, it is already bullish in the short term after last week's strong rally. Holding above $945 is the key pivot for medium and long-term traders. TSLA 20-hour chartThere is a short-term pivot at $1,000, with high volume at this level. Below sees a volume gap to $945, the key as mentioned above. Tesla chart, 15-minute

In recent weeks there have been several companies announcing stock splits. First, there are the big tech giants such as Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and now Tesla has jumped up to make their announcement of a stock split, the second stock split in two years. Tesla has not announced the split ratio yet but will do so after shareholder approval. You may be wondering why these mega-cap tech companies are doing so many stock splits. These companies use stock splits in many ways. For example, they use stock splits to get into a different Index like the Dow 30, which is based on the stock price. Or they may be trying to get a lower share price to entice retail investors to invest. Many of these companies stocks have gotten a little expensive for retail investors. They could easily buy more shares through fractional shares, which can be purchased through some investing apps. However, the appeal of buying cheaper shares may bring in more retail investors to hold whole shares of a company. The EV Market Impact There are many reasons why Tesla could be doing a stock split, but one of the biggest reasons is its control over the electric vehicle (EV) market. With the growing inflationary prices of gasoline and petrol worldwide, people are looking for other options to combat these prices. One way is to drive less, but in a car-centered culture like the USA, that is not an option taken very seriously. The second option would be to drive an EV. In the 4th quarter of 2021, car buyers bought 21% fewer vehicles. However, the vehicles shoppers did buy were EVs, and sales boomed 72% higher than usual in the US. EV car sales usually make up 1% - 2% of the car sales, but between October and December of 2021, EV car sales made up 4.5% - 5% of all car sales. Out of around 148,000 EV cars sales reported in the US in the 4th quarter of 2021, 72% came from Tesla. Of course, many companies besides Tesla are making EVs, but Tesla has been innovating and marketing continuously, allowing the company to remain the market leader. The Expansion of Tesla Tesla is in a growth phase with many people purchasing their vehicles; they see the high demand. Consequently, the company is opening a new Tesla factory in Germany to provide over 500,000 Teslas to Europe. In addition, Tesla is about to open a new factory in Austin, Texas. With the opening of the new factories, you can see that demand is increasing for EVs and especially Tesla cars. People want a vehicle that can save them money. Tesla vehicles are answering the call of consumers. Why is Tesla Splitting Their Stock The year 2022 seems to be the year for stock splits, and almost every mega-cap tech company is starting to do it. Since Tesla is once again splitting its stock, here are some reasons they may be doing so. To Help Retail Investors As you may have noticed, their company is doing well on all the fundamentals. They are producing quality products and dominating the sector; revenue and earnings are increasing. With the rise in popularity of Tesla and its vehicles, more retail investors would like to own this company. At more than $1,000 per share, the stock price is still too steep for most regular retail investors. Of course, they could buy a diversified S&P 500 Index fund or ETF like SPY or VOO, but it is not like holding whole shares of Tesla. Splitting the stock allows average retail investors to purchase shares at a lower price in the stock market and be a part of this significant growth. Adding Value to the Price Announcing a stock split doesn't happen often. For example, Amazon did a few of them from 1997 to 1999 and has not split the stock again until 2022. Tesla is doing it for the second time in 2 years, and the last time they split the stock, the price rose to $2,000 per share. After this most recent announcement, the price went up 8% on March 29th when it was announced the split would happen. Teslas added $84 billion to its market capitalization in that one day alone. That is approximately the market cap of Volvo. Think about that. The value of Telsa has gained so much. They want the company not to be just owned by their employees but allow the retail investors to have more ownership of the company. As that happens, the value of the company will continue to rise. Become Competitive for Employees Another reason for the stock split could be the employee stock options. Many employees have stock options, and with the high prices of the stock, it can be challenging to exercise some of these options without having significant tax implications. With a lower price, the employees can have an opportunity to exercise some of their options and continue to diversify their wealth and portfolio allocations. With many other tech giants doing the same, Tesla creates a more competitive atmosphere in retaining good employees. Nicholas Colas, a co-founder of DataTrek Research, said, "A lower-priced stock makes it easier for employees with equity as part of their compensation to sell a more specific amount to satisfy tax liabilities and manage their personal wealth," After one company starts doing stock splits, many others will do the same to compete or retain similar talent. So it is not just a competition over the market cap in the stock; it is a competition over the best talent to create a thriving company. What Should You Do? There are many options that you could do. Stock splits are happening more often now than they have in recent years. Many companies are growing in market cap higher than they had ever imagined. For instance, Apple (APPL) became a $3 trillion stock earlier this year. You could start by buying some of these companies' stocks or keep it simple and invest in a nice index fund that holds these companies. If you are a retail investor, then the news of stock splits can be good news. You can add more shares of your favorite companies to your portfolio at a lower price per share. Author Bio: Dividend Power is a self-taught investor and blogger on dividend growth stocks and financial independence. Some of his writings can be found on Seeking Alpha, TalkMarkets, ValueWalk, The Money Show, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, FXMag, and leading financial blogs. He also works as a part-time freelance equity analyst with a leading newsletter on dividend stocks. He was recently in the top 1.2% (98 out of over 8,252) of financial bloggers as tracked by TipRanks (an independent analyst tracking site) for his articles on Seeking Alpha. Disclaimer: Dividend Power is not a licensed or registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. He is not providing you with individual investment advice. Please consult with a licensed investment professional before you invest your money. 

Twitter jumped 27% in a single move on the news that Elon Musk took a 9.2% stake in the company. The jump in Twitter shares gave an energy boost to the US equities, especially to the technology stocks. Tesla jumped 5.5% on record deliveries. But news regarding the war and oil prices were less encouraging. EU leaders will reportedly meet tomorrow and announce additional. Lithuania became the first European country to announce a total ban on Russian gas imports, and the possibility of other nations joining Lithuania in banning Russian oil and gas gives a boost to oil bulls. US crude quickly bounced above the $100 mark yesterday on escalating tensions in Ukraine. Elsewhere, US factory orders fell for the first time in ten months on supply constraints, the PMI data will give a hint on the European activity levels amid war in Ukraine, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate unchanged at the historical low of 0.10% for the sixteenth consecutive month. The Aussie rebounded more than 9% against the US dollar since the beginning of February, as iron ore prices jumped due to the Ukraine war, and the medium-term outlook remains positive for the Aussie, as long as commodity prices remain supported by geopolitical threat to the supply. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:25 Twitter rallied 27% as Elon Musk bought 9.2% stake 1:46 ... pulled US tech stocks higher 2:16 Tesla revealed record car deliveries 4:29 Oil rebounded from $100pb ahead of new Russia sanctions 7:00 Investing in rare earth metals 8:12 US factory orders, PMI data & RBA decision Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

Photo Credit: John.U || Look at all those eggs in one basket! The owner *is* watching it carefully, right? Jason Zweig recent wrote an article on owning stock in the company that you work for. Then today in his WSJ newsletter he asked the following question: What’s the most concentrated investment position you’ve ever had? (In other words, what single investment made up the greatest proportion of your portfolio?) Did it work out well or poorly? What did you learn from it? I have one article to answer both questions called Life with Wife. It’s a cute article which runs through two times in my life where I had an overly concentrated investment position. The first one was regarding The St. Paul (acquired by The Travelers), where I took my first big bonus, and put it all into shares of The St. Paul. I got derided for doing that by my colleagues in the investment department, but with a AA balance sheet, trading at 55% of tangible book value, and 8x forward earnings, I felt I had a reasonable provision against adverse deviation — a margin of safety. If you read the article, you will see that I almost doubled my money in six months, then sold. At the peak it was half of my net worth, and I had a mortgage then. So should you invest in your own company? Well, are you working for Tesla or Enron? I am being facetious here, as the guys at Enron thought they were working for a cutting-edge company like Tesla. But any analyst worth his salt would have seen that free cash flow at Enron was deeply negative. I have a neighbor who is a Tesla mechanic. As I was mowing my lawn one day, he waved me over. He wanted advice. He hinted to me how much his Tesla shares were worth. He had consulted an investment advisor who had told him to sell the wad, and the advisor would create a growth and income portfolio allowing him to retire (he is in his 60s). But he was conflicted, because Tesla was doing so well. He asked me what I would do if I was in his shoes. (Note: the TSLA shares were likely 95% of his net worth.) I said, “Do half, or sell 10-20% per year over time, until you do sell half.” Doing that frees you from the binary decision that you might regret. After selling half, if the price goes up, you still have more capital gains. If the price goes down, you sold some at a good time. You can be happy with yourself no matter what. I have no idea what my neighbor did. Hopefully he sold some. The second situation in Life with Wife regarded my only significant private equity position, Wright Manufacturing, which makes the best commercial lawn mowers in the world. At that point, my holdings were 15% of my net worth, with no mortgage. The founder was throwing everything into growth, and sacrificing safety. If he hadn’t been my friend, I probably would not have invested with him. As it was, when I sold half, I had recouped my investment. After the Life with Wife article, I bought out several of the founder’s relatives, ending up with 2.2% of the company. I’ve made 5x on my money here, with distributions, and using the very thin “market” for shares. One of the founder’s sons leads the company now, and he is a far better manager than his father. I like this company, and am more likely to buy more than to sell at this point. But at this point, it is only 10% of my net worth. I may offer to buy more, but I am thinking about it. It trades at 6x earnings, with a stronger balance sheet than the founder worked with, and a stronger competitive position. The most recent price is still below where I sold it to the second largest shareholder. Price discovery is tough when there are only 20 shareholders, and new shareholders may only enter at the pleasure of the board of directors. Closing So, over my life, I have reduced the relative amount at risk on my biggest positions. Does that make sense? Of course — I have less time to make up for mistakes as I grow older. The only people who should be taking high risks when they are old are who are ultra-rich. If they fail, they will still have enough for a moderate existence. Be careful with concentrated positions. You need certainty about safety most, earnings second, and growth third. Otherwise you are a gambler, and most gamblers lose.

Equities 2022-04-13 05:30 6 minutes to read Summary:   Crowdstrike shares surge putting cybersecurity in the limelight. Apple and BHP poised to announce share buy backs, which will support further share price growth. Oil rocks back over US$100 lifting oil stocks in New York and Australia. A Twitter shareholder sues Elon Musk for allegedly committing fraud. Iron ore and aluminium are back in vouge, boosting Rio Tinto shares. US defaults to double according to S&P Global. New Zealand makes its biggest increase in interest rates in 22-years. Co-written by Market Strategists Jessica Amir in Australia, Redmond Wong in Hong Kong. What’s happening in equites that you need to know? US stocks fell for the third day. The S&P 500 (US500.I) and the Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) lost 0.3%. As always, there were bright sparks at the stock level. The world’s biggest cybersecurity company, Crowdstrike (CRWD) rose 3.2% to US$223.51 (its highest level since November last year), after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to a buy. We’ve previously mentioned Crowdstrike as a stock to watch. It makes 94% of its money from subscriptions, and we like businesses like these, given they are set to benefit from elevated demand to address cyberattack fears. The market also likes Crowdstrike with 93% of analysts rating the stock as a BUY. Goldman Sachs expects Crowdstrike’s shares to rise to $285 in a year. Also in MegaCaps, Apple (AAPL) shares jumped over 1% after whispers that Apple could announce a buyback of US$80-$90 billion (and buy backs support share price growth). Hang Seng Index (HSI.I) and CSI300 (000300.I) are little changed. Hang Seng Tech (HSTECH.I) was up 0.6%.  Energy and mining stocks outperformed.  Zijin Mining (02899) surged 7%.  Jiangxi Copper (00358), China Molybdenum (03993), MMG (0128) rose more than 5%.  CNOOC (00883) rallied 4% and China Coal was up from the 6%.  In A shares, logistics names outperformed while real estates, airlines, online entertainment led declines.  Twitter (TWTR) shareholders sue Elon Musk (TSLA CEO). A Twitter, shareholder sued Elon Musk for allegedly committing fraud by delaying the disclosure of his ownership of more than 5% of Twitter, so Musk could buy more shares at a cheaper price. The investor said Musk should  have disclosed his holding by March 24, instead of April 1. Twitter shares rose 27%, from $39.31 on April 1, to $49.97 on April 4. Twitter shareholder, Marc Bain Rasella is also looking to represent a class of investors who sold Twitter shares from March 24 to April 1. Crude oil (OILUKJUN22 & OILUSMAY22) jumps 6% to $101, ... ...as OPEC said the obvious, that’s it’s impossible to replace supply losses from Russia, while China also hints of restrictions easing. This supports gains in oil stocks in the US overnight and in Australia today.  The Australia share market more (ASX200) rose 0.2% by 1pm local time with energy and mining stocks fueling the market higher. Also of note, Rio Tinto (RIO) rose 2.2% after the aluminium and iron ore price extended their rebound. Both prices are important to Rio as it makes 58% of its revenue from iron ore and 22% from aluminium . Also consider demand for aluminium  is expected to grow with company’s like Apple and Nestle's Nespresso to use more of the material to reduce CO2 emissions. Iron ore (SCOA) rebounded yesterday rising 2.5%, but today it’s about 0.9% lower, but holds 8-month highs, at US$154.25. It comes as China again pledged to stabilise its economy and this brightened the outlook for steelmaking ingredient. BHP (BHP) shares are holding at $51.71, and remain in their long term uptrend. So it's worth keeping an eye on BHP. BHP is also touted to annouce a record profit this year and a share buy back, which also supports share price growth. What you need to consider US defaults to double according to S&P Global.  S&P Global Rating anticipates the US’s default rate will swell from the current 1.5%, to 3% by year-end, amid financial conditions tightening. In China, the S&P Global Ratings expects more property developer defaults, with $18 billion in maturing debt and the likelihood of home sales falling 15-20%. Inflation is uncomfortably high.  March CPI hit 8.5% year-on-year. The hottest inflation since 1981. Core CPI moderated a bit, mostly due to a cooling of oil prices, and rose 6.5%. This is still the highest rate since 1982. The largest prices rises were in; fuel oil (70%), gas (48%), used cars (35%), hotels (29%), airfares (24%) and utility gas (22%) on a year on year basis. See the full list here (scrolling to pdf page 9). Simply this tells us, the US Federal Reserve is behind in fighting inflation, so expect a 0.5% interest rate hike at the May FOMC meeting, with rates to hit 2.6% at the end the year. In RMB terms, March China exports rose 12.9% while imports fell 1.7%.  In USD terms, March exports climbed 14.7% from a year ago and imports declined 0.1%. Trade surplus increased to USD47.4 billion (vs consensus $21.7bln, Feb $30.6bln). New Zealand makes its biggest increase in interest rates in 22-years,  while also announcing quarantine free travel. The RBNZ increased interest rates by 0.5% to 1.5%. The surprise caused the New Zealand stock market to fall 0.4% with their tech stocks falling 1.4%. However, as NZ announced quarantine-free travel, the travel industry got a kick, Auckland International Airport (AIA) shares rose 1.1% higher. Trading ideas to consider Aussie dollar and Kiwi ‘up and at em’, amid travel boost.  The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) is back in vogue, rising for the second day, after Australian business confidence rose to its highest level in 5 months. While the NZ dollar (NZDUSD) also rallied for the second day, heading toward 0.69 US. It’s worth watching these two currencies as travel takes off as well between the two nations. Travel stocks.  Air stocks like Air New Zealand (AIZ) and Auckland International Airport (AIA), and Qantas (QAN), Singapore Airlines (SIAL), China Eastern Airlines (CEA) could be worth watching as they have not recovered from the covid falls in 2020. If China restrictions ease and tourism reopens, it’s worth keeping these on your radar. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast 

Stocks fluctuated following their recent decline on Tuesday and the S&P 500 index closed slightly below the 4,400 level. Is this still just a downward correction? The S&P 500 index lost 0.34% on Tuesday following its Monday’s decline of 1.7%. There is still a lot of uncertainty concerning the Ukraine conflict and Fed’s monetary policy tightening plans. On Monday it led to a more pronounced profit-taking action. However, the coming quarterly earnings releases season may be a positive factor in the near term. This morning the broad stock market is expected virtually flat following the Producer Price Index release. The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,475-4,500, marked by the recent support level and Monday’s daily gap down. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,350-4,400. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its March rally, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. Recently it broke below the 4,400 level and our profitable long position was closed at the stop-loss (take-profit) level of 4,440. Overall, we gained 100 points on that trade in a little less than two months’ time (it was opened on Feb. 22 at 4,340 level). So now we will wait for another profit opportunity. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.1% lower following the producer inflation number release. Stocks will likely extend their consolidation. For now it looks like a relatively flat correction within a short-term downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index trades within a short-term consolidation following the recent declines. Our profitable long position was closed at the 4,440 level (a gain of 100 points from the Feb. 22 opening). Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Is it possible that Elon Musk will acquire Twitter!? It's not the first time Tesla's CEO is shocking the world and the markets with his "shopping" plans. Firstly Elon Musk had become the largest share holder, then rejected joining the board and today, according to Investing.com...  âš ï¸ÂBREAKING: *ELON MUSK SAYS OFFERING TO BUY 100% OF TWITTER FOR $54.20 PER SHARE IN CASH$TWTR pic.twitter.com/QRXUxGDE0C — Investing.com (@Investingcom) April 14, 2022 Look at this! (TWTR) Twitter Stock Price Has Jumped in Premarket! TWTR Stock Price is influenced by many factors - fluctuations are caused by i.a. Elon Musk rhetoric and market moves. The most significant were acquiring ca. 9% of Twitter's stake and then rejecting to become a member of board. What's more, Twitter has been commented by Elon Musk before. Eg. he was wondering if Twitter "is dying" showing the statistics of most popular accounts' activity: Most of these “top” accounts tweet rarely and post very little content. Is Twitter dying? https://t.co/lj9rRXfDHE — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 9, 2022  Twitter Stock Price Chart (TWTR) What about Tesla (TSLA)? It has decreased! What Will Happen On The Market Opening? Tesla had its ups and down throughout last five days. The brand is definitely growing and recently opened manufacture in Germany will surely make the price go up even further. Elon Musk published the link to the offer he made What will be the next targets of famous inventor? Which companies are in interest of Tesla's CEO? I made an offer https://t.co/VvreuPMeLu — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 14, 2022   Source/Data: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

Netflix plunged over 20% in the after-hours trading, following the release of Q1 2022 earnings report. Subscriber base shrank by 200,000, marking the first drop in overall users in more than a decade. The drop was led by a loss of 700 thousand subscribers from Russia as the company suspended services in the country and as competition in the streaming sector continues to become more challenging. Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun US indices have been increasingly reactive to this earning season Today, investors will focus on the highly anticipated earnings release form Tesla, which managed to mostly mitigate the impact of supply shortages and rising inflation thus far while expanding its production facilities. While growing concerns relating to covid-19 related lockdowns in China persist, investors will be keeping a close eye on Q1 results along with the company's outlook for the rest of 2022 after Elon Musk attracted additional attention after offering to buy Twitter at a significant premium. US indices have been increasingly reactive to this earning season after many investors have started to look past the initial shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and today could be no exception. Read next: Altcoins' Rally: Solana (SOL) Soars Even More, DOT and SHIBA INU Do The Same! | FXMAG.COM Oil prices attempt to recover after 6% drop Oil is trading higher after prices dropped significantly following the long easter weekend. WTI broke above $103 per barrel while Brent jumped above $108 at the start of today's session but appear to remain constrained in a narrow range for the time being. Traders await today's EIA inventory report which is expected to show a 2.5 million barrel increase after yesterday's API report defied expectations by indicating a 4.5 million barrel drop. While rising demand concerns caused by the increase in covid lockdowns in China continue to pressure the price, the uncertain situation relating to the potential import ban of Russian energy from Europe remains a key topic to watch and may cause noticeable volatility if things were to change suddenly.  

Tesla has just published its earnings and according to Investing.com Forecast, figures exceeded predicted values! The company shows an impressive perfomance and we can't wait fot US Stockmarkets to open tomorrow! According to recent news about Twitter (TWTR), Elon Musk, China-COVID and a Tesla's expansion the earnings of the company were really, really awaited and for sure didn't disapoint investors who were seeking for a bullish market! Related article: Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events Tesla Stock News, Forecast Of Further Expansion Tesla enriches its potential - recently opened factory in Germany let us suppose, the further expansion is only a matter of time. Related article: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM (TSLA) Tesla Chart Procter&Gamble Chart Another company which has shared its earnings yesterday's evening is Procter&Gamble, which has jumped after exceeding the predictions. This is live blog! Stay Tuned!   Source: Investing.com Earnings Calendar, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com  

Since the market opened this morning, the price of Tesla’s stock has increased largely, this surge came after the earnings announcement for Tesla that took place late one Wednesday, which showed large increases in earnings and profits, reflecting unexpected growth for Q1. Tesla share price has surged in the past 24 hours as a result of musks earning announcement that took place late on Wednesday (CET) Read next: (XAGUSD) Price of Silver Vs. U.S Yields, Lumber and Corn Futures Dependent on Demand and Supply | FXMAG.COM The stock price was also affected by Musk’s determination to take over Twitter (TWTR) The price of Tesla's stock has shown very volatile price movements over the past week as a result of market sentiment and current market conditions. In addition, the stock price was also affected by Musk’s determination to take over twitter, an announcement that took place just over a week ago, since then the price has been rising again in general. Read next: Unexpectedly Gold Price (XAUUSD) Falls, Canada And Chicago - Weather Makes Wheat Futures Fluctuate. The Price Of Palladium - Industrial Activity Is Taking Strain | FXMAG.COM Research has shown that the value of Tesla's stock has a correlation between stock movements in the near term and earnings estimates. Currently the market sentiment for the stock is mixed as investors in general are unsure where the markets will go at this point and investors are seemingly more risk-averse amid the rising inflation and possibility of a looming recession. Tesla Stock Price Chart Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, investors.com  Read next: ECB Announcements to Possibly Tighten Monetary Policy Strengthens the Euro. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD and EUR/CHF All Increased | FXMAG.COM  

The Swing Overview - Week 16 Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed will be aggressive in fighting the inflation and confirmed tighter interest rate hikes starting in May. Equity indices fell strongly after this news. Inflation in the euro area reached a record high of 7.4% in March. Despite this news, the euro continued to weaken. The sell-off also continued in the Japanese yen, which is the weakest against the US dollar in last 20 years.  The USD index strengthens along with US bond yields Fed chief Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the Fed could raise interest rates by 0.50% in May. The Fed could continue its aggressive pace of rate hikes in the coming months of this year. US 10-year bond yields have responded to this news by strengthening further and have already reached 2.94%. The US dollar has also benefited from this development and has already surpassed the value 100 and continues to move in an uptrend. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart Earnings season is underway in equities Rising interest rates continue to weigh on equity indices, which gave back gains from the first half of the last week and weakened significantly on Thursday following the Fed’s information on the aggressive pace of interest rate hikes.   In addition, the earnings season, which is in full swing, is weighing on index movements. For example, Netflix and Tesla reported results last week.   While Netflix unpleasantly surprised by reducing the number of subscribers by 200,000 in 1Q 2022 and the company's shares fell by 35% in the wake of the news, Tesla, on the other hand, exceeded analysts' expectations and the stock gained more than 10% after the results were announced. Tesla has thus shown that it has been able to cope with the supply chain problems and higher subcontracting prices that are plaguing the entire automotive sector much better than its competitors.   The decline in Netflix subscribers can be explained by people starting to save more in an environment of rising prices. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The SP 500 index continues to undergo a downward correction, which is shown on the H4 chart. The price has reached the resistance level at 4,514-4,520. The price continues to move below the SMA 100 moving average (blue line) on the daily chart which indicates bearish sentiment.  The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 4,514 - 4,520. The next resistance is around 4,583 - 4,600. The support is at 4,360 - 4,365.   The German DAX index The DAX is also undergoing a correction and the last candlestick on the daily chart is a bearish pin bar which suggests that the index could fall further. Figure 3: The German DAX index on H4 and daily chart This index is also below the SMA 100 on the daily chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The price has reached a support according to the H4 chart, which is at 14,340 - 14,370. However, this is very likely to be overcome quickly. The next support is 13 910 - 14 000. The nearest resistance is 14 592 - 14 632.   The DAX is affected by the French presidential election that is going to happen on Sunday April 24, 2022. According to the latest polls, Macron is leading over Le Pen and if the election turns out like this, it should not have a significant impact on the markets. However, if Marine Le Pen wins in a surprise victory, it can be very negative news for the French economy and would weigh on the DAX index as well.   The euro remains in a downtrend The Fed's hawkish policy and the ECB's dovish rhetoric at its meeting on Thursday April 14, 2022, which showed that the ECB is not planning to raise rates in the short term, put further pressure on the European currency. The French presidential election and, of course, the ongoing war in Ukraine are also causing uncertainty.  Figure 4: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. The inflation data was reported last week, which came in at 7.4% on year-on-year basis. The previous month inflation was 5.9%. This rise in inflation caused the euro to strengthen briefly to the resistance level at 1.0930 - 1.0950. However, there was then a rapid decline from this level following the Fed's reports of a quick tightening in the economy. A support is at 1.0760 - 1.0780.   The sell-off in the Japanese yen is not over The Japanese yen is also under pressure. The US dollar has already reached 20-year highs against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) and it looks like the yen's weakening against the US dollar could continue. This is because the Bank of Japan has the most accommodative monetary policy of any major central bank and continues to support the economy while the Fed will aggressively tighten the economy. Thus, this fundamental suggests that a reversal in the USD/JPY pair should not happen anytime soon. Figure 5: The USDJPY on the monthly chart In terms of technical analysis, the USD/JPY price broke through the strong resistance band around the price of 126.00 seen on the monthly chart. The currency pair thus has room to grow further up to the resistance, which is in the area near 135 yens per dollar.  

Summary: More prospective buyers wanting to take part in the potential buying of Twitter. Does Musk have what it takes to run Twitter? Investor confidence in Musk’s future plan with Twitter.   The lack of investor confidence in Musk's ability to run and finance Twitter... On the 14th April 2022 Elon Musk offered to buy Twitter for around $43bn, on this day the price of the stock fell around 2% in value. Normally when there is news that there is an offer to buy a company at a price higher than the market value the investors would buy the shares to crank up the price, this was not the case with Musk and Twitter. The lack of investor confidence in Musk's ability to run and finance Twitter was confirmed when Twitter proposed a “poison pill” in an attempt to deter Musk from his acquisition plans.   Read next: U.S Yields Expecting Further Increases!?, Announcement Of PMIs Prelims For The Private Sector - FOREX Today| FXMAG.COM   Since Musk offered to buy Twitter, more companies have risen to the challenge and want a spot at the purchase table. Twitter's share price has been volatile recently. Now that there are more prospective buyers in the game, the truth of whether or not Musk really wants Twitter is hanging on his next move. Twitter Price Chart Sources: Time.com, finance.yahoo.com, latimes.com

Photo Credits: Jen and www.david baxendale.com with help from pinetools || The casino is exciting. The scale is honest and unrelenting. I want to give an update to one of the major concepts of Ben Graham, in order to make it fit the modern era better. Ben Graham said: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/831517-in-the-short-run-the-market-is-a-voting-machine quoted from The Intelligent Investor So let me modify it: In the short run, the market is a casino, but in the long run, it is a scale. Is this an improvement? Probably not, but speculation has become so rampant that it may be a necessary modification to change voting machine to casino. The voting machine makes sense, but typically we think of voting as being democratic. We only get one vote per person. Markets are different. Someone who brings a little money to the market will not have the same influence as the one who brings a lot of money to the market. Thus my analogy of the casino, though typically casinos will place limits on how much the casino will wager. They want to avoid random large losses so that they can live to extract money from rubes for many years to come. The winner can brag that he “broke the bank,” but the casino survived to play on. Bill Hwang and his CFO were formally charged with fraud today. What did they do? They synthetically borrowed a lot of money from investment banks to own huge amounts of a few companies. Their buying pushed the prices of the stocks higher, allowing them to borrow more against the positions. But eventually as the stocks they owned had some bad results, the margin calls on his positions wiped him out as the stock prices fell. The scale trumped the casino. The same is true of crypto and meme stocks. Cryptocurrencies require a continuing inflow of real cash (admittedly fiat money) in order to appreciate. If people stop buying crypto on net, and that may be happening now, cryptocurrencies will decline. The scale says crypto is a zero — no intrinsic value. The casino begs for more people to bring real money to buy fake money. That applies to meme stocks as well. You can throw a lot of money at a stock and it will rise. But for it to stay there or rise further, it will need increasing free cash flows to validate the value of the firm. Going back to crypto, it lacks any link to the real economy. Crypto will only become legitimate when you can buy groceries and gasoline at a fixed amount of bitcoin that varies less than the same price in US dollars. As a final note on the Scale versus the Casino, I give you Elon Musk. He borrows against his shares of Tesla to buy Twitter. He either did not realize or ignored the fact that he could lose his stake in Tesla if the price of Tesla falls enough. Do you really want the margin desk to control your fate? This may not totally impoverish Musk, but it is not impossible that he could the entirety of his holdings of Tesla in order to keep his holdings of the unprofitable Twitter. All it would take is for short sellers to push Tesla below $740, and then the margin desk starts selling his shares into a falling market. Momentum, aided by an agreement leading to forced selling. The market abhors a vacuum. So it is for those who assume that things will continue to go right for them.

TSLA stock recovered on Friday to close up 3.7% at $902.94. Tesla stock has been under pressure from Musk selling the stock for Twitter deal. Reports surfaced of a club of billionaires urging Musk on for the TWTR deal. News just in from a Reuters report says that Tesla received help from Shanghai authorities to help Tesla reopen its Giga Shanghai factory. A letter seen by Reuters claimed to be from Tesla says that Shanghai authorities helped transport 6,000 workers to the factory and that authorities also helped to disinfect the plant. TSLA stock is trading at $906.45, up 0.5% in Tuesday's premarket. Tesla (TSLA) stock recovered a decent bit of ground on Monday as the US equity indices staged a late recovery to move higher. The Nasdaq was the big winner closing up 1.7% but naturally, Tesla being high beta, outperformed that and settled nearly 4% higher. The stock remains well below recent levels but may be set for a comeback as sentiment reaches extremely bearish levels, meaning a countertrend rally could be set to unfold this week. That is once we get through the Fed's interest rate decision. However, with most participants either short or neutral we expect something of a positioning rally Tuesday and Wednesday as investors rebalance from overly bearish positions. Yes, the Fed will hike 50bps but the market has this well priced in. The risk-reward is for a less than hawkish commentary and a strong equity market rally. The bad news and overly hawkish commentary are expected. Anything even slightly more accomodating will see a rush back to equities. Tech is one of the most beaten-down sectors so it will stand to have the strongest rally. Don't say you haven't been warned. Tesla (TSLA) stock news: Billionaires pitching Twitter deal Some interesting news over the weekend from an article in the Wall Street Journal. The paper reports that a group of billionaires has been urging Elon Musk to go ahead and purchase Twitter (TWTR). The Wall Street Journal reported cited a group including some former Paypal execs, of which Mr. Musk is one and Peter Thiel another one. It is not clear if this influenced Mr. Musk in any way and he does always appear to be very definite in his own views and motives. Twitter (TWTR) stock news: Musk reducing margin loan financing? TWTR stock also traded higher on Monday as it appears Elon Musk is in talks to reduce his collateral on the Twitter deal. It was revealed last week that Elon Musk had to put down a large stake of his Tesla holdings as collateral, but a Reuters report suggested he is in talks with Apollo Global Management (APO) and Ares Management (ARES) to reduce the margin loan element of his Twitter financing. This should naturally help relieve the pressure on Tesla stock and was partly the reason for Monday's strong rally. Both Apollo and Ares are private equity firms. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast: Potential for short-term bounce Very little of note to comment on here compared with last week. TSLA stock price remains in a medium-term downtrend but we have some potential for a short-term bounce. $975 is the key resistance. Tesla (TSLA) stock chart, daily Below is the 15-minute chart, showing more detail on a short-term basis. Witness the large volume gap from $920 to $975, so a move above $920 should then accelerate quickly to fill this gap. Tesla (TSLA) stock chart, 15 minute

Summary: The history of Elon Musk and Dogecoin. Dogecoin’s possible multiple uses going forward.   Read next: Shell (SHEL) Stock Price Soars Along With The Rest Of The Industry.    The Dogecoin drone show. At the latest Tesla launch in Texas in April, Elon Musk used drones to project the symbol of Dogecoin, the public display of support caused the price to rally high initially. However, as of today the market has restored to the norms for the price of this cryptocurrency. Elon Musk has hinted in a series of tweets that subscribers and members may be able to pay for their Twitter (TWTR) accounts using their Dogecoins going forward. Inlight of Musks plans to take over Twitter, this could be a likely outcome. It is no surprise that Musk is a big fan of Dogecoin, he has integrated the crypto coin into Tesla by allowing the purchase of accessories with Dogecoin and plans to fund some of SpaceXs missions with Dogecoin going forward. The volatility seen by this coin is due to both investor sentiment and Elon Musk's interest in it. Over the past weeks the price of DOGE has been falling, this doesn't come as a surprise given the current global investor sentiment, going forward it wont come as a surprise to see Musk try to come to the coins rescue. DOGE Price Chart   Read next:  Lyft Stocks Face Major Negative Sentiment Despite Q1 Results Exceeding Expectations.    Sources: finance.yahoo.com

Tesla stock falls just over 8% on Wednesday. Twitter stock also falls and is now nearly 20% below its takeover price. TSLA still holding above $700 key support. Tesla (TSLA) stock suffered another humbling day on Wednesday as it yet again suffered more steep losses. As the broader equity market appears to crash, so too does the Tesla share price. This time it dropped by 8% to trade into the low $700s. $700 was the low seen back in February when market panic sold the Ukraine invasion news. Since then Tesla has recovered and held up well. Part of this was the reasonably good earnings quarter it posted. Now though a combination of macro factors and the Twitter (TWTR) deal are weighing on the stock. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Tesla Stock News The latest Tesla recall news hit yesterday, and that certainly helped the stock underperform all the main indices. Tesla has had to recall 130,000 vehicles due to CPU problems affecting the central display unit. There have been a number of recalls for Tesla vehicles this year, none of which seems to have hindered the share price. But this environment has turned more bearish, and any bad news is seized upon. This week we also have had news of a supply problem hindering production at Giga Shanghai, which comes just days after getting the factory back online after covid lockdowns. Adding to pressure on Elon Musk but not directly attributable to Tesla is a report from The Wall Street Journal saying that Elon Musk is facing a federal probe over delays in his filing for his initial stake in Twitter. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM We also note a report from Bloomberg saying smaller investors and hedge funds will get the chance to invest in the Twitter acquisition by way of special purpose vehicles that pool money together. The minimum investment is $5 million. This is not reassuring in our view. Still scrambling around for investors at this late stage in this type of market does not inspire confidence in the deal going through in its current guise. Hindenberg Research also released a report outlining similar concerns last week. Tesla Stock Forecast $700 remains the key support and target for now. As long as this holds then, there is the chance of a strong bear market rally. But it likely is getting too close for comfort now and should be triggered today. That level most likely has stops just beneath, so it could spike lower on a beak. That would then be the time to reassess. Both the Money Flow Index (MFI) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are close to oversold, and a break of $700 could put both into oversold territory. Breaking $700 brings $620 as the next support. Resistance and the bullish pivot is all the way up at $945 now. Read next: Where XRP price could bottom and how to reenter the market| FXMAG.COM Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

Summary: Tesla battery prices are expected to increase. The rising prices are likely to persist. Read next: Despite The Year The Stock Market Has Seen, One Asset Has Succeeded: The US Dollar.  Tesla’s stock prices are falling amidst rising prices. Tesla stock prices have fallen over the past week. The current rising of prices is likely to increase for some time to come and are likely to substantially increase the cost of making electric vehicle batteries more expensive. This would mean that the timeline to get electric vehicles prices to equal the price of normal vehicles could be pushed back by up to a decade. It is clear that Tesla is trying to battle the cost of inflation in order to try to control electric vehicle prices, they are switching to larger-form batteries which add more power per unit of volume. In addition, Tesla is also planning to use more iron-based chemicals in an attempt to drive down their battery prices. Tesla Price Chart Read next: Earnings Season: (DIS) Disney Stock Price Awaits Earnings Announcements  Sources: barrons.com

Tesla stock has always been more volatile than the stock market. It closed the Thursday session on the lowest level since last August, and it is a common question, what is the next turn for the leading EV producer. For now, it looks like the downside impulse is not over yet but did its main part. Musk’s deal with Twitter The list of variables in this stock ranks from the outlook for demand for electric cars (i.e., oil prices) and interest in the ESG agenda, including the economic outlook and monetary policy, and ends with the tone of the tweets of its founder, Elon Musk. But in recent days, it has also been affected by Musk’s deal with Twitter, where Tesla shares were used as collateral. For investors, the latest news of Musk’s potential break-up of the agreement to buy the social network is good news. The opposite is also true. The promotion of the deal has caused Tesla shares to sell off with acceleration in the market. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Locally, buyers are eyeing current levels to purchase Tesla Shares in the leading electric car maker are now trading 38% below their peaks at the start of April and 43% below their all-time highs in November last year. The company’s shares are looking better than many other pandemic favourites, which have zeroed in on all and much of the gains from the March 2020 lows, while Tesla has become about ten times more expensive in that time. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Locally, buyers are eyeing current levels to purchase Tesla, which is aggressively ramping up production and is well ahead of other electric car makers in sales in an era of record fuel prices. On the one hand, the technical analysis points to a return of the stock from oversold territory, which could be followed by both a recovery bounce and the start of a new wave of growth that could return the price to levels above $1000 in just a few weeks. On the other hand, the share price may not face much of an obstacle moving down another 10% from current levels, regaining half of the pandemic rally to levels near $650, where it has traded repeatedly since December 2020.

Summary: Tesla gets kicked off the S&P 500 ESG index. Tesla's stock price has also seen major volatility in the past week, with rising investor concerns around the removal from the S&P 500 ESG index On Wednesday, the Electric Vehicle company Tesla, founded by the world's richest man, Elon Musk was dropped from the S&P 500 ESG index. The index moved to remove Musk amidst claims of social discrimination and crashes due to the autopilot vehicles. Shortly after Tesla was removed, Musk took to twitter and tweeted that “ESG is a scam”. There are other factors that lead to the removal of Tesla, such as a lack of publishing details regarding low energy or business conduct codes. Tesla's stock price has also seen major volatility in the past week, with rising investor concerns around the removal from the S&P 500 ESG index, Musks on-and-off Twitter deal and the CEOs political tweets regarding the Republican and Democratic parties in the U.S TSLA Price Chart Read next: (TGT) Target Delivers Disappointing Earnings Results To The Market  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com

Summary:  Asian markets joined the overnight selloff in US equities although some reversals were seen subsequently. Risk sentiment saw a mild recovery but the outlook for consumer discretionary remains murky amid rising cost pressures and inventory building. Australia’s unemployment rate dipped to record lows and watch for Japan’s CPI and China’s loan prime rates due on Friday. What’s happening in markets? Wall Street stocks hit new lows as the market anticipates earnings declines and further slowdowns in consumer spending, amid tighter financial conditions. This is what’s dragging tech and consumer spending stocks (ex-reopening stocks) to new lows. The S&P500 fell 4% on Wednesday, eroding most of its recent gains. The Nasdaq fell 4.7%, taking the top 100 stock index to its lowest level since November 2020. We think the market is not yet at capitulation point - further selling is ahead. The extra risk now is that volatility, is causing boutique investment managers to be on the brink of margin collapse, which could add to further selling pressure in markets and stocks that are down heavily. Asian equity markets join the global sell-off. Japan’s Nikkei (NI225.I) was down over 2.5% led by tech such as Tokyo Electron (8035) and consumer discretionary with Fast Retailing (9983) down over 3%. Singapore’s STI index (ES3) also dropped close to 1% on Thursday morning after Singapore Airlines reported earnings with a narrower loss and an upbeat outlook. Hong Kong and mainland China equity markets gapped down but losses narrowed at mid-day.  Following overnight US equity market’s worst sell-off since June 2020, Hang Seng Index (HSI.I) slumped as much as 3.5% in the morning. Tencent’s (00700) over 8% plunge in share price after reporting Q1 results below market expectations dampened sentiment further. Tencent’s Q1 revenues and EPS coming at flat and -23% YoY respectively and both were 4% below consensus estimates. Online games revenues (PC + mobile) declined 2% YoY and online advertising revenue dropped 18% YoY. Investors were also troubled the management’s remarks saying support initiatives from the Chinese Government to the tech industry takes time and will not benefit the Company much in near-term.  By mid-day, Tencent is down 6.6% and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) is down 3%.  Hang Seng Index and CSI300 (00300.I) fell 2% and 0.3% respectively. Tesla (TSLA) shares slide 7%, more selling to come as S&P500 boots it out of ESG Index, at a time when market anticipates earnings growth to fall and costs to rise. S&P explained why it kicked Tesla out of its ESG index saying Tesla’s “lack of a low-carbon strategy” and “codes of business conduct,” along with racism and poor working conditions reported at Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California, affected the score. Separately, new research suggests battery cell prices will surge 22% from 2023 to 2026 amid the scarcity in raw materials needed to make EV batteries. This is why we continue to advocate that clients would be better served in commodity companies who are benefiting from price inflation, rather than commodity consumers (EV makers). Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Cisco (CSCO) – a proxy for business IT spending, guides for weaker earnings. Cisco is of the largest IT and networking businesses in the world (catering to a 1/3 the world’s market). It reported its Euro and Asian sales fell 6%. But the real story is its weak guidance. Cisco CEO guided for a drop in revenue ahead, expecting a 1-5% revenue decline for Q4, at a time when the market expected revenue growth of over 5%. This reflects that businesses are not willing to open up their pockets, at a time when inflation (wages, energy) is rising and interest rates are going higher. Consumer spending retail proxies hugely disappoint - as their profit outlooks dim. Target (TGT) shares fell 25% (biggest drop since Black Monday). Walmart (WMT) fell almost 8% as both retailers cut their forecasts for profit amid a slowdown in home-good sales at a time when they’re guiding for rising costs pressures (fuel, freight costs, rising wages). Target and Walmart make $600 billion in combined revenue, that’s double the size of the biggest company on the ASX. So given that both the retail giants are proxies for consumer spending, their demise could translate to other companies. What to consider? US retailer earnings signal shifting consumer spending patterns. We have seen a number of weak retailer/ecommerce earnings from the US now starting with Amazon (AMZN) to Walmart (WMT) to Target (TGT) reporting a 52% decline in profits overnight. While US retail sales show that the consumer is still resilient, there is certainly a shift in spending patterns away from home appliances that were the most sought after during the pandemic to reopening and travel related items such as luggage and services. But it is also important to note that inventory levels are building up, which may mean more write downs or a mark down in prices to sell off. Higher costs are also weighing and only likely to get worse in the second quarter. This means retailers will continue to face the brunt for now. Offshore investors were net seller in onshore RMB bonds for the 3rd consecutive month.  In April, foreign investors sold RMB88 billion (USD13.3bn equivalent) worth of onshore RMB bonds.  The amount of selling moderated somewhat from March’s RMB98 billion. Net inflow of foreign currency from China’s trade settlement declined. In April, net trade settlement was only 42% of China’s trade surplus of that month, below the 2021 average of 58%.  The key driver for the low net inflows seems coming from higher than usual demand from importers to buy foreign currencies, staying at escalated level of 65.1% in April versus 2021 average of 55.8%.  Exporters repatriated 60.8% of the total goods exports in April.  It was down from March’s 65.8% but still well above 2021 average of 54.6%.  Dollar trimmed gains in Asia. The USD moved higher as risk sentiment was eroded overnight, but trimmed gains in Asia. GBPUSD rose back towards 1.2400 while EURUSD was seen back above 1.0500. UK inflation shot up to 9% y/y in April from 7% previously, continuing to complicate the task for the BOE. Yen weakened in Asia, but the cap in 10-year yields as equities lose momentum is suggesting yen weakness has mostly run its course, at least on the crosses. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM AUDUSD rises 0.9%, off its low as Australian unemployment fell to a new historical monthly low (3.9%). This is the lowest reading for the survey. Unemployment was lower in 1974 when survey was quarterly. However, the AUD rose modestly off low, up 0.9% today to 0.7020, as the strong employment data gives the RBA more ammunition to raise rates - given Australia’s economy strengthened. China’s reopening theme also adds to upside for the AUD. However, longer term, as the Fed raises rates, this strengthens the USD, will likely cut the AUD’s grass. Japan imports swell on energy and weak yen. April trade deficit was seen at 839 billion yen as exports grew 12.5% y/y but imports rising 28% on higher energy prices and the drop in yen to two decade lows. Following a negative GDP print for Q1 reported yesterday, the impeding trade position is adding to Q2 risks and pent up demand remains the key to provide an offset in order to avoid a technical recession. Rising inflationary environment may however weigh on consumer spending and Japan’s April CPI will be on watch tomorrow. Consensus expects a rise to 2.5% y/y from 1.2% in March with core CPI also turning positive at 0.7% from -0.7% previously. Potential trading ideas to consider? Short CNHJPY trade that we put on last month may still have room to go. The larger foreign currency outflows due to offshore investors’ bond selling and smaller inflow of foreign currency from trade settlement tend to give add to the depreciating pressure the renminbi. At the same time, the Japanese Yen is benefiting from a safe haven bid in the midst of global equity sell-offs.  Both Japanese investors and overseas leveraged investors who fund their positions in Yen tend to repatriate and need to buy Yen in the time of turmoil.  In addition, the prospect of a pickup in inflation in Japan may trigger traders to cover their bearish positions in the Japanese Yen.  Asian retailers likely to see pressure from global counterparts. Consumer discretionary sector was leading the decline in the S&P overnight, and the rout is likely to spread to Asia. Watching key Asian retailer shares like Japan’s Fast Retailing (9983), Hong Kong’s Sun Art Retail (6808) and Australia’s Harvey Norman (HVN). With liquidity conditions only starting to tighten, there is likely room for the equity rout to run further, but cash is not a viable asset for long term investors. We remain overweight commodities and reopening.   Key economic releases this week: Friday: Japan nationwide CPI, China loan prime rates   Key earnings release this week: Thursday: Xiaomi, Generali, National Grid, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, Ross Stores, DiDi Global   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. 

The US equities closed Thursday’s session in the negative following a choppy trading session, as investors’ hearts pounded between buying the dip, or selling further on recession fear. The US 10-year yield declined yesterday, and the sharp retreat in the US yields gave a boost to gold, raising question on whether the gold rally could be sustained, and if yes, how high could it extend. The dollar gave back gains, letting the EURUSD and GBPUSD rally, but the gains may remain short-lived if the dollar skew in market pricing continues. Tesla got kicked out of the S&P’s ESG index, which could have implications on its long-term price potential   On the individual stocks, news that Michal Burry opened a bet against Apple heated conversations about whether Apple is a good ‘short’. And finally, Tesla got kicked out of the S&P’s ESG index, which could have implications on its long-term price potential. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Market update 1:20 Is Apple a good stock to short? 3:50 US yields boosted gold. Is gold rally sustainable? 6:25 FX update: euro, pound up on softer dollar 7:58 Tesla out of S&P ESG index: what does it mean for stock performance? Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Summary: Elon Musk reduced his Margin Loan for his TWTR deal Prices show some recovery. Tesla share price has gained more than 8.5% on Thursday Tesla's stock price has gained more than 8.5% on Thursday amidst Elon Musk’s closing out on a Margin Loan associated with his $44 billion Twitter deal. In a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing last night, Musk said he reduced the margin loan that linked his Tesla (TSLA) shares to zero, whilst boosting his overall equity portion of his Twitter takeover to $33.5 billion. This move from Musk reduced the pressure on the Tesla shares, driving the price up. TSLA Share Price Chart Read next: (IXIC) FOMC Meeting Minutes Drives Nasdaq Up  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com

TSLA stock is up 3% to $670 in Tuesday's premarket. Musk announces plan to cut 3% to 3.5% of total headcount. Tesla being sued for recent mass layoffs in US. Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk announced at the Qatar Economic Forum on Tuesday morning that his market-leading EV manufacturer was planning to lay off as much as 3.5% of its workforce immediately, including 10% of salaried workers. This is actually a reduction in scope by Musk, who said earlier in June that he had a "super bad feeling" about the economy not long after JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said a "hurricane" was on its way toward the US economy. At that time an internal memo from Musk called for a 10% reduction in headcount. TSLA stock is up 3% to $670 in Tuesday's premarket on the news. Tesla Stock News: Layoffs appear short-lived At the Qatar forum in an interview with Bloomberg's News' Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait, Elon Musk said the 10% of job cuts were meant only for salaried workers, as opposed to hourly manufacturing workers, because the salaried workforce had grown too quickly. “A year from now, I think our headcount will be higher," Musk added. Tesla, headquartered in Austin, Texas, now has around 100,000 employees, so this would mean that approximately 3,000 to 4,000 employees would be terminated overall. The company is already facing lawsuits for terminating 500 employees at its Nevada gigafactory earlier this month. Two employees, John Lynch and Daxton Hartsfield, have brought suit, arguing that Musk's company violated the 60-day notification period required for mass layoffs under the Worker Adjustment & Retraining Notification Act. "It's pretty shocking that Tesla would just blatantly violate federal labor law by laying off so many workers without providing the required notice," said attorney for the workers Shannon Liss-Riordan in an interview with Reuters. Musk downplayed the lawsuit when asked about it in Qatar, calling it "trivial". It is uncertain how, if at all, these layoffs would affect overseas workers. Tesla's gigafactory in Shanghai has only just gotten back in gear with exports resuming in May. Tesla exported over 22,000 vehicles from its Chinese factory in May after covid lockdowns in March and April forced it to only export 60 units. News from its factory outside Berlin is that the EV maker is being forced to raise salaries to attract talent from other automakers. Birgit Dietze, a representative for the IG Metall regional union, said that Tesla's hiring is behind schedule as it plans to hire 12,000 employees by the end of the year. This has forced Tesla to raise starting salaries by as much as 20% in order to reach hiring goals. Dietze said this will difference in pay between early hire and late hires will cause consternation at upcoming collective bargaining talks. Tesla Stock Forecast: $700 is the barrier to beat With TSLA shares rising as Elon Musk seeks to control costs, $620 remains the key support for now. Its strength comes from February 24's steep loss that held up there, but it also worked back in August 2021. Breaking through $700 turns this resistance level back into support and places TSLA stock back in neutral territory. The 20-day moving average sits nearby $700 and should also provide some resistance. If Tesla stock fails to conquer $700, then shares will likely descend back to support at $620. From there, based on the descending lower trend line, TSLA is destined for either $600 or more likely $550. That last price held strong in March and May of 2021. It is important to remember that the 20-day is way below the 50-day moving average, and that means TSLA share price is definitely still in a downtrend. Do not expect it to end until Tesla breaks and holds $700 for at least a week. Above $700 lies further resistance at $756. Breaking through the last swing high close of $775 and closing above it will spell a new bull market for the EV leader. Tesla stock daily chart

Summary: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP currency pairs Netflix earnings report Tesla earnings report Read next: S&P 500 Amongst Major Indexes That Are Rising, Markets Are Waiting For Thursdays ECB Policy Decision  Euro stole headlines on Wednesday The EUR/USD currency pair ended the Wednesday trading day showing mixed market sentiment as the market awaits the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision due on Thursday. The Euro is still facing uncertainty regarding high inflation in the Eurozone and how the ECB plans to tackle it, in addition as the Noord Stream 1 opens after its routine maintenance period, there are still concerns as to whether Russia will open the gas taps. The recovery of the Euro against the dollar could be reflecting a possible market inflection point. The Euro has recovered half of its July losses so far, this could mean a turn around against the Dollar for many other major currencies aswell. The Euro stole the headlines on Wednesday as both Bloomberg News and Reuters reported that the market could see an outsized interest rate yield rise from the European Central Bank on Thursday. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP currency pair The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. According to a number of new reports, it is predicted that UK inflation could reach up to 12% by October, the report also showed that the inflation rate was growing at its fastest rate in 40 years. The Euro remains supported ahead of the ECB’s policy decision on Thursday EUR/GBP Price Chart Netflix Earnings Report Netflix's earnings report on Wednesday indicated they lost around 970,000 subscribers, beating the 2 million that was predicted last quarter, thus causing the company's stock price to jump. Its EPS beat market expectations. The company also warned that the rallying US Dollar would have an impact on international revenue. The streaming giant also indicated they had more time to understand and address the issues that have been impacting their streaming, revenue and other major indicators. NFLX Price Chart Tesla earnings report Tesla’s quarter 2 earnings report indicated the company beat market expectations with regards to adjusted EPS. Automotive margins came in at 27.9% down from the 32.9% seen in the first quarter, impacted by inflation, increased competition for battery cells and other components that are required for electric vehicles. In addition the invasion of Russia in the Ukraine and in conjunction with covid-19 lockdown measures in China caused supply chain issues and parts shortages. TSLA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com, cnbc.com

Tesla stock falls 6% on Friday as rally starts to stall. TSLA stock is up 31% in the past month. Elon Musk said a recession is likely to last 18 months but be mild. Tesla stock fell on Friday as commentary from Elon Musk was taken as relatively bearish. The Tesla CEO said that the US looked set for a mild recession, probably in the ballpark of 18 months. Also more noteworthy in our view, Tesla stock is up nearly 32% in the past month and was due for a stall. Regular readers will have noted that your author has been short Tesla for some time. Luckily, I saw the writing on the wall and closed the position some 25% ago in the infancy of the rally. Also read: Tesla Stock Deep Dive: Price target at $400 on China headwinds, margin compression, lower deliveries Now it may be time to review the short thesis. This equity rally has been long in duration and percentage now and may be set to stall. The catalyst for the rally, that of falling yields, is reversing after Friday's strong jobs report. That strong report has given the Fed more ammunition to go for 75 basis points again in September. We are likely to see rhetoric turn notably hawkish this week from Fed speakers. Tesla stock news Also of note were other somewhat bearish comments from Elon Musk about the long-awaited Tesla Cybertruck. “Cybertruck pricing, it was unveiled in 2019, and the reservation was $99," Musk said. "A lot has changed since then, so the specs and the pricing will be different.” One has to assume this is a warning that prices will be higher given inflation and supply chain issues, but perhaps the biggest news piece is the imminent Tesla stock split. This is due to take place after August 17, which will be the record date. The Tesla stock split is to be a 3-for-1, so that Tesla shareholders on August 17 will receive an additional two extra shares in the form of a special dividend. Trading on a stock split-adjusted basis is scheduled to begin on August 25. Stock splits are generally seen as beneficial to stock prices simply due to human psychology – we like things that are perceived as cheaper even if in reality they are not. Tesla stock forecast Tesla recently marked its monthly gain of over 30% by flashing overbought on both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI). It also retraced to the 200-day moving average but has not consolidated above there. The $945-to-$975 zone was an area of major resistance, and TSLA stock price has failed here. Momentum looks to be stalling, and Tesla is nothing if not a momentum play. This week could be interesting with Wednesday's CPI. That will dictate yields and the next Fed move, both of which will be the dominant factors in the next move for Tesla stock. Tesla chart, daily

Summary: A three-for-one stock split has been announced by Tesla. Teslas stock price will begin trading at a third of its current value. TESLA’s stock split A three-for-one stock split has been announced by Tesla, giving investors something to look forward to this coming week. A "dividend" of two additional shares will be given to Tesla stockholders as of the conclusion of trading on August 24. The Tesla shares will begin trading the following day at the new price, which is a third of its previous value. According to one study, stocks that announce splits often outperform the market over the following 12 months by 16 percentage points. Tesla's shares, which were recently $860, will now cost closer to $285, a significant difference for regular investors. For Tesla, small investors are important. Noninstitutional investors own about 46% of the shares that are available for trade. 15% would be a comparable figure for, let's say, Alphabet. Additionally, stock splits can indicate management's confidence in the future. A firm never splits a stock that it anticipates losing value. Shares of Tesla increased by an astounding 81% between the announcement and the share trading on a new split-adjusted basis the previous time its stock was split—five for one back in August 2020. That repeating is difficult to imagine. First off, the news of this split has been well publicized for several months, and the shares have increased by approximately 25% in the past month and by 40% since their May 52-week low. TSLA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barrons.com

Tesla falls to the first point of support. TSLA should bounce on Tuesday as markets recover. Tesla stock still looking overvalued as the sector rerates. A more or less normal day for stock markets on Monday took place after the sharp sell-off on Friday. Monday's performance was somewhat better than expected or less bad than many feared. Equity markets held up relatively well with the main indices losing less than 1%. Fears of capitulation were short-lived. This should set up a recovery rally for Tuesday and Wednesday and then probably markets will flatline ahead of Friday's employment report. Also read: Tesla Stock Deep Dive: Price target at $400 on China headwinds, margin compression, lower deliveries Tesla stock news The good news for bulls was that Monday's price action opened on the lows at $280, retested it in the first half, and then put in place a double bottom on an intraday basis that set Tesla (TSLA) stock higher for the remainder of the session. Overall, it was a pretty boring day. Tesla had a range of about $7 on the day, but there was no follow-through from Friday's sell-off. Is this consolidation just a holding pattern before further falls or a base building for a recovery? Tesla stock forecast TSLA stock longer-term view remains bearish with the series of lower tops identified by our trendline below. As we can see, Tesla is stuck in a high-volume area (grey bars on the right). High-volume areas are stabilization zones, and markets tend to move from one to another. Below $281 and above $314, volume thins out, so we would expect Tesla to move quickly through those zones. The recent Fed hawkish commentary from Powell puts the risk-reward in favor of the downside in my view, so I would be looking for TSLA stock to break $281 and a swift move through light volume until we reach the next high volume zone at $240. However, ahead of Friday, there is likely to be some recovery and then stabilization around $300. TSLA 1-day chart

Summary: Nvidia stock price falling. Thursday's premarket trade saw a more than 5% decline in Nvidia stock. Nvidia (NVDA) SEC filing In a filing with the Securities and Exchange commission on Wednesday, chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) informed investors that the U.S. government has imposed additional licensing requirements on several of its sophisticated products. Unless Nvidia obtains a license to sell quickly, this will have an impact on sales to Russia and China. Part of the submission stated that according to the government, "the new licensing requirement will address the possibility that the covered products may be utilized in, or diverted to, a 'military end use' or 'military end user' in China and Russia." Although Nvidia noted that it doesn't conduct business with Russia, $400 million in third-quarter sales to China may be at risk. Currently, $5.9 billion in third-quarter sales are anticipated for the corporation by Wall Street. In a new SEC filing on Thursday, Nvidia stated that the government had approved some chip development as well as chip sales through Hong Kong till September 2023. Investors will continue to have reservations about Chinese chip sales for the overall sector in the upcoming months. Thursday's premarket trade saw a more than 5% decline in Nvidia stock. Since the recent SEC filing, shares have somewhat recovered their losses. The price of Tesla (TSLA) stock fell 1% in premarket trades as well. Nvidia hardware was used by some older Tesla models, although Tesla seems to have stopped using Nvidia as a chip hardware supplier recently. After being contacted for comment regarding any Nvidia goods used, Tesla didn't react right away. NVDA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barrons.com

Summary:  Ahead of the Fed’s interest rates decision with rates expected to rise by 0.75%, the price of the 10-year yield rose to 3.5% for the first time since 2011. Normally this puts equities in a precarious position, however, investors looked past this as a big red flag. The most buying overnight in US equities was in the Materials sector after commodity prices rallied, while sizeable moves were also in big tech names. Sentiment flowed to the ASX, with lithium and coal stocks being bid the most, after their commodity prices hit new record highs. And as such, the risk-on mood is set to flow through the Asia-Pacific today. Ahead, all eyes are on Australia's RBA meeting minutes and the reaction to Japan's CPI hitting a 31-year high. For the latest in markets and what to consider next, read today's APAC DD. What is happening in markets?   Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Ahead of the Fed’s Wednesday interest rates decision with rates expected to rise by 0.75%, the price of the 10-year yield rose to 3.5% for the first time since 2011 and the 2-year note popped to a 15-year high of 3.96%. Normally this would put equities on the back foot and in a precarious position. As such this remains a big red flag for equities that are interest rate sensitive (tech, property, consumer spending). However, overnight equities looked past the noise and ended on a high note. But indeed, it was a volatile session. The S&P500 was down 1% earlier in the day, but marched higher in the final hour, supported by strong moves in big tech names. The S&P500 not only wiped out the day’s earlier loss but Friday’s fall too, closing up 0.7%. We saw 9 of the 11 sectors rise, led my Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials, while Heath Care was a laggard. Nasdaq 100 gained 0.8%. Big US stock movers Tesla (TSLA:xnas) gained about 2% on plans to increase the price of its supercharger stations in Europe. Apple (AAPL:xnas) rose 2.5% on news of Apple planning to fix the shaking iPhone 14  camera. Nike (NKE:xnys) gained 3% with investors betting their results later this week might not be as bad as feared. We think there could also be an upside scenario in 2023 for Nike if mainland China strengthens with its easing of lockdowns over the next 12 months, which would likely boost sportswear sales and margins. Afterhours Ford (F:xnys) warned that inflation had caused supplier costs to rise by $1 billion in the current quarter, joining a chorus of major companies experiencing the same macro challenges ripping through the economy. Ford shares fell 4.4% after hours, suggesting they will open lower when normal trading resumes. Moderna (MRNA:xnas), BioNTech(BNTX:xnas), and Novavax (NVAX:xnas) fell 7% to 8% after President Biden said in a CBS 60 Minutes interview that “the Covid pandemic is over”. U.S. treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) hit new highs The 10-year yield briefly exceeded 3.5% to 3.52% intraday for the first time since 2011, in an otherwise quiet session with the cash treasuries market being closed in London and Tokyo for holiday. The 10-year notes managed to pare some of their losses and finished the day at 3.49%, up 4bps from last Friday. The short end of the curve underperformed ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC, with 2-year yields climbing 7bps to a new closing high at 3.94%.  Australia’s ASX200 hits a two-day high, supported by Lithium and Coal stocks Today the Australian share market opened 1% higher in the first 10 minutes of trade, following Wall Street’s rally. Some of the biggest moves are in lithium and coal. Lithium companies are surging after the lithium price rallied to a brand-new record high, with the lithium carbonate price hitting a new record of $73,315 a ton in China (according to Asia Metal Inc). Core Lithium (CXO) is a stock to watch after it agreed with Tesla (TSLA) to extend the termination date for its binding offtake (sales) agreement to October 26. The extension allows the companies to negotiate a full form binding offtake agreement. Other lithium stocks to watch include Pilbara Minerals (PLS) after its shares rallied 3.6% in early trade, to a brand new record high of A$4.80. Elsewhere, Fortescue (FMG) rose about 1% on plans to decarbonize its business with a A$6.2 billion plan. Also, keep an eye on Oz Minerals (OZ) with the copper miner seeking a $10 billion potential sale to BHP (BHP). Speaking of BHP (BHP), its shares are up 1.8% after the NYSE listed BHP rallied overnight amid the risk-on mood. Risk-on mood setting up in Asian trade today Despite expectations of massive tightening moves being delivered globally this week and the surge in US 10-year yields above 3.5% overnight, the Asia session kicked off with risk-on sentiment. US equity futures extended gains and the USD was weaker, with the Japanese yen stronger at 143 despite CPI touching 3% in August. GBPUSD surged higher to 1.1460 while EURUSD extended gains to get close to 1.0050 levels amid ECB’s hawkishness and some relief on gas prices as well. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Yesterday the Hang Seng Index dropped 1%, dragged down by technology and China property stocks. Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) declining 2.1 % with Alibaba (09988:xhkg) down 3.6%, Bilibili (09626:xhkg) down 5.6%.  In the China property space, Longfor (00960:xhkg) dropped 6.1% and Country Garden (02007:xhkg) slid 3.3%.  EV makers underperformed, with NIO (09866:xhkg), Li Auto (02015:xhkg), and Xpeng (09868:xhkg) plunging from 4% to 6%. U.S. President Joe Biden’s affirmative response to the question about sending U.S. forces to fend Taiwan off Chinese military actions added to investors’ concerns about an escalation in Sino-American tension.  Following the news that the Hong Kong Government is reviewing and considering plans to end the hotel quarantine requirements for inbound travelers, Hong Kong tourism and retail stocks rallied, Cathay Pacific Airways (00293:xhkg) up nearly 1%, travel agency EGL (06882:xhkg) soaring 11.5%, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (01929:xhkg) rising 6.2%.  In mainland bourses, the approaching of the National Day golden week holiday and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism’s public consultation on promoting cross-border tourism pushed up tourism, catering, and beverage stocks. Coal mining stocks also gained. Solar power, semiconductors, and beauty care stocks dropped. CSI300 finished the day little changed.  Crude oil (CLU2 & LCOV2) Some support was seen to crude oil demand on Monday despite the risks of massive central bank tightening this week. A somewhat softer USD as well hoped of easing movement restrictions in China helped crude oil eke out a modest gain, despite the potential for increased supply. The US announced that it will offer an additional 10mbbl from its strategic reserve. Only last week it was reported that the Department of Energy was looking at plans to start replenishing the stockpile. UAE also said it was accelerating its plan to produce 5mb/d of crude oil by 2025. WTI futures rose back towards $86/barrel while Brent futures were above $92. What to consider? US NAHB in its ninth month of decline NAHB Housing Market Index reported its ninth consecutive decline to 46.0, beneath the prior 49.0 and expected 47.0. The weaker-than-expected data highlighted the pessimism hitting the US housing market due to the rising mortgage rates, and housing starts may be set to cool further in the coming months. However, no systemic risks are seen as the housing market remains a lagged indicator. Australia’s RBA expected to increase inflation expectations as coal pushes up and La Nina hits The RBA meeting minutes released today at 11.30am Sydney time, will be dissected for clues that the RBA will be increasing its inflationary expectations. Particularly as the coal price, where Australia gets the majority of its energy from, hit another record high (and coal is not in peak demand season yet). On top of that the RBA will probably allude to La Nina’s threat on Australia. We think the RBA may touch on wheat prices picking up again, given they are up 16% from August. Frost and rain in South America has impacted their wheat supply, dryness in the US will reduce their supply, plus heavy rains are headed for Australia for the third year in a row. So global wheat supply is expected to be short again and push up inflationary pressures. The AUDUSD might see a knee jerk reaction higher if the RBA alludes to this. However, we expect the AUDUSD to come under pressure, as the magnitude of the Fed’s hike supports the favoured currency, the USD moving up. Japan CPI hits a 31-year high Japan’s August CPI touched the dreaded 3% YoY mark from 2.6% previously, coming in at the strongest levels in over three decades and significantly above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target level. The core measure, which excludes fresh food and energy, also come in higher-than-expected at 1.6% YoY. With the wage growth remaining restrained, this may mean nothing for Bank of Japan which remains committed to maintaining its yield curve control policy. However, the markets may start to test the BoJ’s resolve once again, especially with US 10-year yields also touching 3.5% overnight while JGB yields remain capped at 0.25%. Hong Kong’s unemployment rate came in at 4.1% Hong Kong released the city’s unemployment rate which came in at 4,1% for the June to August period, 0.2 percentage points lower from last the May to July period. The underemployment rate fell to 2.0% from 2.2%.  U.S. President Joe Biden gave an affirmative response regarding sending forces to fend Taiwan off from mainland China When being asked in a CBS 60 Minutes interview whether the U.S. would send forces to defend Taiwan in case of military actions from mainland China, President Biden replied: “Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack.”  In answering a follow-up question about if the U.S, unlike in Ukraine, would send forces men and women to defend Taiwan, Biden said: “Yes.”   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/apac-daily-digest-20-sept-2022-20092022

Tesla stock gyrates wildly around the Fed interest rate decision. TSLA eventually closed down over 2% on Wednesday. Tesla is likely to struggle further along with all equities. Tesla (TSLA) swung around pretty wildly as the Fed decision was announced. The gyrations were partly to do with positioning and also lingering hopes for a Fed pivot. Equity markets sold off on the initial 75 bps rate hike. It was more the dot plot showing higher rates in 2023 that caught many by surprise. No Fed pivot in 2023 was not what equity bulls had been hoping for, but the press conference began slightly more dovish with talk of a "pause" and phrases like "data dependent" getting equity bulls' hopes up. The Nasdaq surged into positive territory before finally bowing to the inevitable. Rates are going higher, and equities will have to take some more pain. Tesla stock news All this overshadows any specific Tesla news, of which there is little anyway. Reuters had earlier reported that Tesla was looking to close some showrooms in China, but the company has supposedly denied this. Outside of that, the news was relatively light, an unusual move for Tesla. The attention will now begin to focus on the next set of quarterly earnings, which are due on October 20. Tesla has reported strong sales growth in China, so investors will be looking for clarity on projections there. Delivery lead times have been slashed on the mainland as well, with the Shanghai Giga factory getting upgraded. The question remains how much of this falling delivery time is attributable to falling demand. The last set of data from China appeared to show not much as Tesla nearly tripled its sales growth in China from a year prior. Tesla stock forecast Tesla stock once again failed at the upper resistance at $314 on Wednesday. This was in line with the rally and sharp sell-off of US equities into Wednesday's close. Now we wait to see how much follow-up there is on the sell side. The medium-term outlook is bearish with higher yields now offering a viable alternative to equity investments. In the current climate, safety offered by bonds (especially short-term bonds held to maturity) will likely tempt investors. Below $314 Tesla, therefore, looks bearish with a target of $281 and then $265. TSLA daily chart

Summary:  US earnings season is about to get underway, and Australia’s financial year reporting just wrapped up, so let's cover five hot stocks to watch. General Mills is the best performing US stock this week in the S&P500 after the Wheat price gained 24% in the month. Pilbara Minerals, is one of this week's best performers in the ASX after selling its lithium for a record price this week to China. Whitehaven Coal is another to watch, as it's benefiting from surging coal demand and prices, with its shares trading at brand new record highs in anticipation of another record profit. Lastly, we cover why Tesla and Apple are two of the most traded stocks at Saxo in September. General Mills  General Mills is the biggest wheat exporter in the US Its shares have been outperforming the market and are of the best performers in the US this year, up 22% Its shares are picking up momentum as the Wheat (WHEATDEC22) price has gained 24% in a month So what’s moving Wheat higher into a technical uptrend? South America wheat supply has been impacted by frost and rain, US supply is expected to fall due to dry conditions and drought in the US Heavy rains are headed for Australia for the third year in a row amid La Nina And lastly – with Russia mobilizing troops against Ukraine, this adds to supply concerns for Wheat, on concerns Ukraine’s export terminal could be shut once more. So General Mills is a stock to watch, as the wheat price rises, it boost its cashflow and share price growth.  Pilbara Minerals   Pilbara Minerals is Australia biggest exporter of lithium Its shares have gained almost 50% this year as the lithium price tripled in the last year, fueled by electric vehicle demand Pilbara Minerals auctioned off its lithium spodumene concentrate (or partly processed lithium) for a record price of AUD$7,708 with the shipment to go to China So who is buying Pilbara’s lithium? Two of Pilbara’s most known customers include China’s Genfeng and the car maker Great Wall. So what’s next? Well if the lithium price continues to rally amid the lack of supply and rising demand, Pilbara’s shares could stay elevated supported by expectations that higher cashflow and earnings growth are ahead. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast lithium demand to grow more than 40 times over the next two decades Pilbara operates on a Price to Earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times forward earnings estimates, which is comparatively cheaper than its peers. So Pilbara could be a stock to watch. Whitehaven Coal Whitehaven is Australia's biggest exporter of coal and the best performing stock in the global share market this year, among large companies Its shares are up 250% Last financial year Whitehaven's earnings rose 1,500% boosted by the coal price soaring to new record highs So what's next? The coal price is surging amid a lack of coal supply and rising demand  Demand for coal has been increasing as the world searches for cheap access to emergency energy Regions like India are experiencing a heat waves, while Australia has been hit by its coldest winter on record. The coal futures price, which is an indication of the future price of coal, is also continuing to move further higher into new record highs, simply telling us, that the spot coal price is likely to move higher yet again, as the world is facing a lack of energy reserves, and forward demand is also increasing. Peak coal demand season is December and January, so we expect the coal price to move higher as demand increases from coals biggest consumers (India and China) amid their winter.    Tesla   Tesla is one of most traded stocks at Saxo globally this month Across the world, Tesla electric vehicles are one of the most bought electric vehicles Its shares have had a bumpy ride this year, as the company’s been plagued by higher raw materials and commodity costs Although Tesla shares rallied up 50% from than their May low, there are now concerns some of those gains could fade, as the lithium price is back at record highs However on the positive side for Tesla;  Tesla is increasing some of its costs, such as increasing the price of supercharger station use in Europe And Tesla is controlling other costs where possible, by looking to make in-house battery cells As for new revenue streams; the Cybertruck’s production is set for mid-2023 Across Europe, Tesla is aiming to increase sales. For instance in Germany it wants to double sales growth, compared to last year, after opening new stores And in the US, across the entire electric vehicle market, all EV sales are expected to rise after the United States introduces new climate law and tax credits. Bloomberg estimates total EV industry sales will make up 52% of total car sales by 2030. That’s a huge jump compared to the 5% last year. And Tesla will be capturing some of this growth Tesla trades at a Price to Earnings (PE) ratio of 109 times forward earnings estimates, which make it looks expensive compared to Ford’s PE of 7 times. Given commodity prices are likely to continue to rise, and Bloomberg estimates suggest Tesla’s margins could be flat this year, before picking up in 2023, you might expect Tesla's shares be pressured before potentially rebounding later next year.   Apple   Apple is the one of the most traded stocks at Saxo globally this month Its shares have also had a bumpy ride, but its innovation should support the company’s shares growing in value over the long term Interestedly, Apple’s iPhone sales generate half of the group’s total revenue, and last quarter, total revenue stood at about $41 billion Apple's launch of its new iPhone, including its most expensive model yet, the iPhone 14 Pro model should also help next quarterly earnings. Why? Well iPhone 14 shipments are said to account 60-65% of orders, which is up from the previously estimated range of 55-60%. This means Apple could have a positive outlook when they release their next quarterly earnings in late October. Apples new watch and air pods should also bolster Apples outlook And going forward, Apple's customer retention is set to expand as it moves to a new subscription model. Apple estimates 98% of its customers want to upgrade their phone each year. So that’s a reason to perhaps consider Apple for the long term To find out more about the these companies or other opportunities, head to Saxo's Platform.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/looking-for-stocks-to-buy--here-are-five-to-watch-23092022

The financial environment is not only about numbers, analyzes and statistics. Nowadays, investors must also observe statements or individual actions of leaders. Moreover, the climate, environmentalists or pro-ecological activists call for action to protect the climate and thus to prevent global warming. Not only leaders have to care about the environment, but also the technology market. There are many technologies that care for the environment, and their development continues. In this article: The populations at risk from extreme heat Technology development Statement by Elon Musk The interest in clean-energy funds A career switch Leaders must also take care of the climate Morgan Stanley in his tweet emphasizes how important it is for leaders around the world to take action to protect the climate. Leaders around the world, from both the public and private sectors, must tackle climate change together to protect the populations at risk from extreme heat. Find out more: https://t.co/hHYtWbnX7A — Morgan Stanley (@MorganStanley) September 24, 2022   Nowadays, we observe climate change more and more often. Actions that humanity undertakes significantly affect the condition of the climate. State leaders or business owners must not only take care of the financial condition, but also take actions that will protect humanity from climatic extermination. If we forget that protecting the climate is equally important, it may one day turn out that water will be more valuable than a diamond. Future of technology Goldman Sachs Publication informs about an interview with Stephan Feld Goise with @BloombergTV about what activity we can expect in the technology industry. Stephan Feldgoise, our co-head of Global M&A, chats with @BloombergTV on what activity we can expect in the tech sector this year and next. https://t.co/Iw2e6Vz6WE — Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) September 16, 2022   Technology is present in our lives. Younger generations cannot imagine their lives without Internet access. Thanks to technology, I have more possibilities, and its continuous development is quite fast. Reflecting on what the technology market can offer new consumers, a lot of speculation arises, almost like in the futuristic novels of StanisÅ‚aw Lem. It is worth delving into what the technology market can offer us in the near future, that is this year and next. Starlink activation in Iran is it true * Walter Bloomberg in his tweet quotes Elon Musk. We learn that starlink activation in Iran. ELON MUSK SAYS ACTIVATING STARLINK IN IRAN — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 23, 2022   Such a statement may have caused a lot of controversy. After saying about buying Twitter, some recipients may treat the current information as a joke. Others, on the other hand, may believe that the business magnate and investor may only be trying to focus on themselves to stimulate their PR. His comments may significantly affect the Tesla share price and the financial environment. A single statement from the face of the company can cause confusion. The recent interest in clean-energy funds Morningstar, Inc. in his tweet, he informs about the interest in clean-energy funds. Recent climate legislation may be driving interest in clean-energy funds. And investors face many choices.@Jon_F_Hale recently examined the 5 largest clean-energy ETFs — as well as electric vehicle-focused funds. Here's what he found: https://t.co/EapNRt5EME#climateweek2022 pic.twitter.com/hn68Wtse4o — Morningstar, Inc. (@MorningstarInc) September 24, 2022   Taking care of the climate is very important. Electric cars have appeared on the market, and more and more households use solar panels. The interest in clean-energy is not only practical but also financial. Investors are more and more willing to take action in this area. According to the author of the tweet, the recent interest in clean-energy funds could have been caused by recent climate legislation. How to start a career in finance? Charles Schwab Corp announces in his tweet the possibility of starting a career in the financial sector without having any experience in this area. Did you know you don’t need a background in finance to make a career switch to a role at Schwab? Rebecca is using her experience and passion for teaching to succeed in her new role at Schwab. https://t.co/ptCOSvsOl7 pic.twitter.com/zXFEve3tp7 — Charles Schwab Corp (@CharlesSchwab) September 23, 2022 Many people dream of a career in finance but do not have the knowledge or skills or experience. There are single units that show by their example that there is nothing impossible to start over and start working in finance. The aforementioned units show that to start the change, it is enough to use what we have. A post like this one can fill people who want to change with optimism and a motivator to act.

We spent the weekend talking about whether Credit Suisse will finally go bust or not. The share price is down below 4 francs a share, and the credit default swaps are going through the roof. The 5-year CDS for Credit Suisse spiked to 250 from around 60 at the start of the year. It means that the market is aggressively pricing a default for one of the biggest Swiss banks. Is it possible? Yes, it is possible, but it is highly unlikely. A negative note Zooming out, the third quarter ends with losses, even though we thought that the summer rally could’ve given something. But no. The S&P500 finished the 3rd quarter having slipped to the lowest levels this year. The same is true for Nasdaq and the Dow Jones. $24 trillion have been wiped out of the stocks so far this year. And the last quarter begins with aggressive rate hike expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed), but also from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) to fight inflation and the dollar strength.Nike has been the latest company warning investors of falling profits due to mountains of stockpiles that they inherited from the pandemic times – and which brought the company to make nice price discounts -, and the strong dollar. Waiting for tesla reactions This week, we will watch how Tesla will react to the latest delivery report, the OPEC decision and the US jobs figures… and hope that this week’s jobs data doesn’t reveal strong job additions, and solid salary growth in the US. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:21 What will happen to Credit Suisse? 3:14 Q3 ends on a negative note… 5:36 USD strength to become a major headache for next earnings season 6:51 What to watch this week? Tesla deliveries, OPEC decision & US jobs 7:50 Econ101 minute: Why the Fed must destroy jobs to fight inflation?   Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #CreditSuisse #Q4 #Nike #earnings #strongUSD #USD #EUR #GBP #Tesla #OPEC #US #jobs #Fed #BoE #ECB #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Summary:  Today we discuss the market sliding to new lows on Friday after a firm US PCE inflation indicator and despite the stabilization of global sovereign bond markets in the wake of the panicky situation in the UK gilt market last week that triggered an easing move from the Bank of England. We look at new sources of concern as financial conditions by some continue to deteriorate badly. A look at the USD, crude oil, natural gas and wheat, Tesla, Biogen's new Alzheimer drug candidate and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean engraver If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-3-2022-03102022

The new week, the new month and the new quarter kicked off on a volatile, but a positive note. Credit Suisse closed a very ugly session with 0.90% loss only. Stocks  European indices gained, while the US indices rallied as softer-than-expected US ISM manufacturing index gave a positive spin to the market. The Dow Jones jumped the most on Monday, as oil stocks literally roared on the back of firmer oil prices. Oil bulls are betting that OPEC will announce an output cut of around a million barrels per day to ‘stabilize’ oil prices. FX Update In the FX, the US dollar retreat almost 3% since its September peak. The dollar lost more than 4.50% against the Brazilian real, as Cable rallied past the 1.13 level, after Liz Truss government took a ‘mini’ step back from their terribly unpopular fiscal spending plan, and said that they will not reduce taxes on big salaries. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its interest rates by 25bp only, versus 50bp expected by analysts. Today's report Today, we will be watching the job openings data in the US, and hope to see a smaller number, as the Fed sees the job openings as a factor that could ease the pressure in the US jobs market. Then, will follow the ADP report on Wednesday, and the NFP, unemployment rate and the wages growth on Friday. Investors are praying for softish numbers this week to continue the rally. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:22 Stocks rebound 1:23 Oil stocks rally on firmer oil 4:44 …but Tesla slumps 5:55 FX update: USD down, BRL & GBP up 6:33 … but Brits want to see Liz spend less 8:16 RBA cuts less & investors need soft US data to cheer up Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #CreditSuisse #Tesla #Brazil #election #Bolsonaro #Lula #BRL #USD #GBP #OPEC #output #cut #crude #oil #US #jobs #Fed #BoE #Liz #Truss #mini #budget #SMI #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Summary:  Markets yesterday show how quickly this hot-tempered market can try to sniff out a Fed that will eventually pivot to a less hawkish stance as a weak US September ISM Manufacturing survey data point engineered a huge decline in US yields and significant USD weakness. More important US data is to come this week through Friday’s jobs report. Elsewhere, the surprisingly dovish RBA battled with supportive developments in commodities to sway the Aussie overnight. FX Trading focus: Desperation for the Fed pivot. Sterling: can it really be that easy? Dovish RBA. Yesterday saw US 10-year treasury yields almost 25 basis points lower from intraday highs, with much of the treasury buying/yield drop coming in the wake of a weaker than expected September US ISM Manufacturing survey, out at 50.9, below the 52.0 expected and 52.8 in August. The New Orders were far worse than expected at 47.1 vs. 50.5 expected and 51.3 in August. Alas, we have to remember that the Manufacturing sector is small in the US and about half of the dips to near or below 50 have not indicated imminent recession in the US. The ISM Services survey – up tomorrow - would be a different matter if it were to show marked deterioration. Elsewhere, a tweet from the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos noting that influential economist Greg Mankiw agreed with economist/pundit Paul Krugman’s assessment that the Fed is tightening too quickly may have helped to drive the sentiment shift at the margin as well. Pushing back against that was Fed Vice Chair Williams out expressing the belief that the Fed must remain on message: “Tighter monetary policy has begun to cool demand and reduce inflationary pressures, but our job is not yet done.” Williams speech does suggest that the Fed thinks that it is succeeding, so the strongest risk to markets here would be stronger US data suggesting a still strong pace of activity in services and a still very tight labor market with accelerating wage pressures. The Fed forecast assume a fairly soft landing of weak growth and 4.4% unemployment. Self-feeding cycles in a downturn and the Fed’s focus on lagging indicators like employment are likely to eventually lead to far worse outcomes. The USD has weakened at the outset of the week here – but note EURUSD holding the line so far just ahead of the key 0.9900 level. AUDUSD has far more wood to chop for a reversal, as discussed below. The most remarkably priced pair at the moment, however, may be USDJPY, which remains pinned near 145.00 despite the significant drop in long US treasury yields. Still uneasy about the risk of a blowout market-BoJ/MoF showdown – that’s a very weak performance from the yen today. Chart: AUDUSDThe AUDUSD chart has been an interesting one to watch since yesterday and overnight. Strong risk sentiment and lower US treasury yields weighed on the US dollar and helped boost commodity prices, both strongly Aussie supportive. But then the huge mark-down in Australian yields on a quite dovish RBA (more below) challenged the Aussie overnight. Looks like a battle-zone tactically around the local 0.6530 resistance, which was briefly taken out this morning on the further USD weakness before reversing back into the zone later in trading today. The down-trend is so well established that it would take a surge to at least above 0.6700 to begin challenging the down-trend here. The RBA surprised the majority of observers with a smaller 25 basis point hike to take the policy rate to 2.60%. It’s a reminder of the vast shift relative to the old regime, in which one might have expected an RBA rate at least 100-200 bps higher than the Fed’s. The last time the Fed was hiking to north of 3.00% was in mid-2005, when the RBA cash target had already reached above 5%. The RBA chose to emphasize caution in its latest statement, citing the anticipation that unemployment will eventually rise beyond the near term strength in the labor market as the economy eventually weakens. Governor Lowe and company are clearly uneasy and uncertain on the effects of the sharp tightening in the bag on mortgage rates and future spending, and the statement continues to cite lower wage growth than elsewhere. In addition to AUDUSD note above, also interesting to watch the relative strength in AUDNZD over tonight’s RBNZ, as the sharply lower Australian yields (the year-forward RBA rate has been marked a remarkable 50 basis points lower by the market after this meeting). A surrender below the 1.1250-1.1300 zone would suggest a risk that the attempt to reprice the pair higher on the shift in relative current account dynamics I have cited before has failed for now. Sterling rose further after Chancellor Kwarteng yesterday reversed his decision on the tax cut for the highest incomes in the UK. Interesting that this is was particularly item, while politically unpopular, was one of the least consequential in terms of the fiscal impact. For now, given the soaring risk sentiment backdrop, sterling short covering continues, but surely it’s not this easy? Technically, watching the major resistance zone at 1.1500 zone in GBPUSD and whether the bearish reversal back into the old range below 0.8700 in EURGBP sticks. This is still a government that is very much on the rocks. The latest controversy PM Truss is courting is claiming that she has yet to decide whether UK welfare distributions, outside of pensioners, should be raised with inflation, which has some Tory MP’s up in arms. Chancellor Kwarteng, feeling the rising pressure, will bring forward his fiscal statement to later this month from late November, around the time the Office of Budget Responsibility publishes its forecasts. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The USD rose so far in its up-trend before the recent setback, that there is some residual medium term up-trend strength left, though momentum has shifted markedly against the greenback. The opposite is the case for sterling, which has achieved a positive trend reading versus the G10 broadly due to weak G10 smalls of late (note GBPNZD, for example, at a high since late February. Elsewhere, strong risk sentiment, together with concerns of a struggling Swiss bank have brought CHF south in a hurry over the last week. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.CHF on its back foot and our longest surviving trend, the GBPCHF downtrend, is now dead. Sterling upside breaks are spreading, in fact. Also note the shift in US yields taking XAGUSD onto a sudden moonshot, while XAUUSD is eyeing an up-trend as well. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1230 – ECB's Centeno to speak 1300 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 1315 – US Fed’s Mester (voter) to speak 1400 – US Aug. Factory Orders 1400 – US Aug. JOLTS Job Openings 1500 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 0100 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Target Announcement Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-the-desperation-for-the-fed-pivot-04102022

Summary:  Tesla has been one of the strongest consumer discretionary stocks since May but yesterday's negative price action amid a strong rebound in US equities is sending a signal that investors are getting nervous. One thing is the Q3 deliveries miss against estimates but elevated lithium prices are hurting on input costs and the cost-of-living crisis is beginning to lower demand significantly across many consumer discretionary categories including cars. Tesla is facing growing downside risks against a very rosy outlook priced into the stock with analysts expecting 42% revenue growth in 2023. Tesla shares down 9% in a strong equity session is a strong sign of nervousness Yesterday’s strong US equity session was sending some odd signals as we would typically expect high beta and growth pockets to rally more than the market, but it was instead theme baskets such as defence and commodities that rallied. Adding to this interesting session, Tesla shares were down 8.6% being the only mega cap stock (the 40 largest stocks in S&P 500) that was down more than 1%. A big part of the move in Tesla was of course due to Q3 deliveries missing estimates (343,830 vs 357,938) which Tesla said is due to logistical issues, but the pressure is on Tesla now as the EV-maker has to produce 450,000 cars in the last quarter to meet its 50% annually target that it has set. This seems to be a quite steep target to reach. One thing is the logistical issues in the global car supply chain, but there are two other growing risk sources for Tesla. So far, Tesla has been immune to the cost-of-living crisis caused by the galloping energy crisis which has led Tesla to significantly outperform the global consumer discretionary sector (see chart below). However, with elevated electricity prices and high inflation due to high energy and food prices, the demand is coming down sharply for many consumer companies hitting Apple, Nike, and H&M recently. This is probably the biggest risk to Tesla’s outlook which is still very optimistic with analysts expecting 42% revenue growth in 2023, something we find hard to be achievable given the development in electricity prices and disposable income. In addition there are two hard physical constraints on Tesla’s growth trajectory. The first one is the price of lithium which remains elevated at very high levels putting pressure on battery prices and thus the price on electric vehicles. Given the adoption curve expected on EVs this market could remain very tight for years. Another constraint is the physical electricity grid which needs a massive upgrade to handle all the new EVs and air-to-water heat pumps. Both of these physical constraints are out of Tesla’s control and if they are not solved quickly the 50% annualized growth target may quickly turn out to be lofty vision with no connection to the real world. Are financial conditions too tight already? The US bond yields continued significantly lower yesterday and the 10-year yield is touching 3.57% ahead of the US trading session. This is a sharp reversal from the 4% level reached on 28 September. US equities responded yesterday to the falling yield bouncing back. Positions were stretched across many markets and we are likely witnessing short covering on a big scale. Several leading economists have also been out warning that maybe the Fed is getting to aggressive on its rate policy. If we look at the US financial conditions (see chart below) then financial conditions are back above zero meaning that they are tighter than the average since 1971 relative to the strength of the economy. In theory the current level of financial conditions should begin to have an impact on inflation going forward. The key risk is that inflation has become engrained in the most sticky parts of the services economy and that rising wages could create a wages-inflation feedback loop that will require even tighter financial conditions to get inflation under control. This wage-inflation dynamic is the key topic to watch in 2023.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/is-tesla-driving-into-physical-limits-in-the-economy-04102022

Summary:  Today we look at the short squeeze in equity markets finding surprising further strength yesterday and note that key resistance in US markets has already come into view as the "central bank pivot" narrative may struggle to find further sustenance when most of what we have seen may have just been a temporary improvement after a scary episode driven by UK gilt market contagion that eased. We also look at the status of FX markets, the crude oil reversal on the threats of an actual large production cut from OPEC+ today, Tesla and Twitter after Musk u-turned on his intent to challenge the deal, Tesco and semiconductor stocks and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-5-2022-05102022

TWTR closes up 22.2% after Musk agrees to go through with acquisition. Tesla stock falls in premarket on the news. Musk says Twitter is part of his designs for a superapp. If you have been living under a rock for the last 24 hours, you may not have heard that Elon Musk has decided to buy Twitter (TWTR) for the original price of $54.20 agreed to back in April. ...And so our corporate fairy tale finally starts on its road to a conclusion. Musk was scheduled to be deposed later this week, and some pundits think the likelihood of failure in extricating himself from his agreement to buy the social media platform back in April was the major reason for wanting to end the current litigation. Either way, Twitter has agreed to the acquisition, and TWTR stock zoomed up 22.2% to close at $52. Carl Icahn reportedly profited about $250 million by holding onto TWTR when Musk tried to exit the deal in July and shares fell to $31.52. Twitter stock news According to reporting from The Financial Times, Musk's lawyers held a Zoom (ZM) call with Judge Kathaleen McCormick from the Delware Chancery Court and Twitter representatives early on Tuesday. The parties agreed to go through with the original acquisition framework, but Twitter has requested new stipulations on timelines and deliverables. Late Tuesday, Musk's legal team filed its intent with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC). The relevant section of the filing reads: "On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to Twitter (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying Twitter that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court." A spokesperson for Twitter stated that the "intention of the company is to close the transaction at $54.20 per share". Now the only thing that stands in the way for the deal going through is ensuring that the financing is there. A number of Wall Street banks had already signed up for $13 billion in financing, which may be more difficult now that interest rates are racing higher. More of the debt may have to come from the banks themselves rather than outside clients. Binance, the crypto exchange, also had agreed to put up $500 million for the deal, and Oracle founder Larry Ellision had said he would put up at least $1 billion. That leaves Musk, who already owns 9.6% of Twitter, to come up with the other $25 billion or so. Plenty of other institutions will likely be brought into the fold, but the market is still thinking Musk will need to sell a further chunk of Tesla stock. TSLA gained 2.9% in Tuesday's regular session, but is off 1.5% in Wednesday's premarket. For his part, Musk decided to forget about his mid-Summer fight over the number of bots on the social network and focus on the possibilities. He posted that Twitter would become part of an "everthing app" called X, which of course reminds one of his vaunted X.com startup that eventually merged to become part of PayPal (PYPL).   Twitter stock forecast Technically, if you buy TWTR stock at $52, then you could make 4% when the acquisition is finalized. With 10-year treasuries still at 3.6% though and Musk requiring financing in a poorer investing climate, TWTR should remain at a discount until the end. Below you can see how both TWTR and TSLA reacted to the news release. TWTR ran up over 22%, and TSLA sold off after adding 2.9% in the regular session. TWTR vs TSLA 1-minute chart for 10/4/22 If this is indeed the end, how did TWTR do as a public company? The answer is: simply awful. If you had bought TWTR near its height in December 2013 (nearly 10 years ago), you would have lost money at Musk's acquisition price. Twitter will continue, but as a public stock it has never amounted to a solid business. Instead it might even be its lackluster corporate prospects that have endeared it to so many fans, myself included. TWTR monthly chart

Twitter stock fell nearly 4% on Thursday as the Elon Musk saga continues. TWTR stock now trading nearly 10% below the offer price of $54.20. Twitter still has surged from lows of $41 last week. Read next: Terra's Worker Arrested! White House Comment On The OPEC Decision And Success of Deutsche Bank | FXMAG.COM The will-he-won't-he saga appears to be nearing a conclusion, but it is not over the finish line yet. Market participants and investors look to be doubting the deal if the latest share price movements are anything to go by. Twitter is trading at under $50 now at $49.30 this morning in Friday's premarket. That is a near 10% discount to the offer price of $54.20. Given the deal is due to close shortly, that is a larger-than-usual deal approaching the finish line. Usually, merger arbitrage players would be all over such a discount so near to closure, but this deal has been clouded in uncertainty from the start. Extra caution is obviously being taken in valuing the probability of the deal going through. Twitter stock news Always the risk in writing about this one is that the news changes dramatically and quickly, but the latest appears to be that the Twitter trial date to try and force Elon Musk to go through with his purchase has been delayed to allow the deal to go through by October 28, according to the judge. That appears to be good news. "This action is stayed until 5 PM on October 28, 2022, to permit the parties to close on the transaction," wrote Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick of Delaware's Court of Chancery. The judge also said if the deal does not close by then, a trial date in November will be set. Various media sources carried news earlier on Thursday that Elon Musk's team had attempted to delay the trial on Thursday, but Twitter responded: "Twitter opposes Defendants' motion...The obstacle to terminating this litigation is not, as Defendants say, that Twitter is unwilling to take yes for an answer. The obstacle is that Defendants still refuse to accept their contractual obligations." Twitter Stock Price - "Technical analysis does not really apply to a merger arbitrage situation" The TWTR stock price is obviously volatile as a result of all this contrasting news and is likely to remain so. Will the deal get finished, and if so when? The risk-reward diminishes near the strike or take-out price of $54.20. Technical analysis does not really apply to a merger arbitrage situation. Twitter stock daily chart

Risk sentiment is morose this week with the escalating tensions in Ukraine, rising Covid cases in China, mounting tensions between US and China, the selloff in US and other treasuries, the relentless appreciation in the US dollar and the drop in safe haven currencies. Situation on forex market The Swiss franc lost ground against the greenback and the USDCHF rose above parity. The Japanese yen continued its historic fall as well, the dollar yen advanced to 145.80. Gold fell for the fifth day to $1660 per ounce, and is set to dive deeper toward the $1600 level on the back of a relentless rise in the US yields and the dollar. And the US yields press higher on the back of hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing, despite a couple of less hawkish comments from some Fed members at the start of the week. Marcoeconomy events The US 2-year yield advanced to 4.35%, and activity on Fed funds futures price 77.5% chance for a 75bp hike at next FOMC meeting. Even the UK yields shot higher despite the Bank of England’s (BoE) announcement of more measures to calm down the Truss-hit gilt market. At least, the avalanche of bad global news has been successful in pulling oil prices lower yesterday. The barrel of American crude eased to $90 this morning, after having flirted with $94 a barrel on Monday. US earnings season kicks off in a dark and depressed environment. According to data from FactSet, the EPS growth of the S&P500 companies should fall by 2.6% to below 10% in the Q3. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:34 Ukraine war, rising Chinese Covid cases & US-China tensions 1:48 Chip stocks do poorly 2:33 Even safe havens are not safe 4:22 And selloff in Treasuries continue at full speed 5:50 Oil bounced lower 6:51 Earnings probably grew slower in Q3 7:32 BoE tries hard, but Truss govt is just… a disaster 9:10 Tesla's China sales hit record! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Ukraine #Russia #war #China #Covid #chip #stocks #Nvidia #AMD #Tesla #earnings #season #Fed #BoE #USD #GBP #gilt #intervention #Gold #XAU #CHF #JPY #crude #oil #Bitcoin #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Summary:  Today we look at Friday's whipsaw turnaround in equities after the bizarre Thursday rally, as the heart of earnings season lies dead ahead and the world's most traded stock, Tesla, has dumped to a new low for the year just ahead of its Wednesday earnings call. We also discuss Chinese leader Xi's speech over the weekend and whether Europe is set to declare China an economic rival, as well as watching for the ongoing fallout for semiconductor companies after the Biden administration moved to limit semiconductor tech transfer to China. The latest in FX, individual stocks to watch and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-17-2022-17102022

Summary:  The Q3 earnings season will not get much help from the financials, energy, and technology sectors as all three sectors are facing headwinds and US financial earnings last week and Bank of America yesterday have proven this hypothesis. Tonight Netflix will kick of the earnings season for the technology and media segment of the market with focus on input costs and its upcoming ad-tiered business model. Tomorrow, two giants from Europe and the US will report earnings in the form of ASML and Tesla with the latter being extremely important for US equity sentiment among technology and growth stocks. Q3 earnings will get no help from financials and energy The earnings season is slowly kicking into gear this week. Major US financials have already reported Q3 earnings with Bank of America surprising yesterday against estimates and delivering better results compared to a year ago against its peers. As we have written many times, we expect the Q3 earnings season to show margin compression and that earnings will be under pressure. The chart below shows the quarterly EPS for the S&P 500 financials sector showing that earnings are down 2% q/q and 9% y/y, and with weak earnings q/q from the energy and technology sectors it will be difficult to lift aggregate earnings in Q3. Netflix headwinds persists The video streaming giant Netflix reports earnings tonight after the US market close and analysts expect revenue growth of 5% y/y and EPS of $2.22 down 23% y/y as rising input costs are pressuring Netflix’s business. The strong demand during the pandemic has disappeared, competition has increased significantly, and content production has been weak running at higher costs than estimated. The key upside factor for Netflix is the new ad-tiered business model which will enable a new revenue stream and reduce the risk of subscribers cancelling their subscriptions due to the cost-of-living crisis. The semiconductor party is coming to an end for ASML ASML, the world’s largest and most important semiconductor equipment manufacturer, reports Q3 earnings tomorrow morning before European trading opens. Revenue growth is expected to decline to just 1.6% y/y from 35% y/y in Q2. While we believe ASML will meet expectations for operating income and revenue we are more worried about orders as the ongoing tensions between the US and China over semiconductors are negatively impacting the industry. The US has imposed several export restrictions on semiconductors and equipment to China and the full-speed realignment of semiconductors will hit industry growth in the short-term. We have recent seen negative outlook on semiconductors from Samsung and Micron Technology. As the ninth largest European publicly listed company this earnings release will be important for sentiment in European equities. ASML share price | Source: Saxo Tesla is confronted with lithium issues and high electricity prices There is probably not a more important stock than Tesla when it comes to sentiment in the technology and growth segments of the equity market. The EV-maker reports Q3 earnings tomorrow night after the US market close. Estimates are looking for revenue growth of 61% y/y and EPS of $1.02 up 106% y/y as EV adoption has accelerated this year despite supply constraints, price hikes on EVs and high electricity prices. Tesla recently missed estimates on Q3 deliveries and the main focus will be on lithium supply and prices, and to what extent it is impacting Tesla’s margins. We are also curious to see Tesla outlook given the high electricity prices. Car sales has recently stabilised in the US and Europe, and in China growth is coming back. However, the news flow from Chinese EV-makers has recently been negative and that might be a warning sign on the outlook. Tesla has moved from being a premium brand to an average brand when judged on average selling price as Tesla is now firmly in at the same average price as Ford and GM in the US. Its gross margin when factoring out R&D costs of cost of goods sold for other carmakers is also only the 11th best. The question remains whether Tesla can continue to command a high equity valuation, but as the fifth largest publicly listed company in the US this earnings release is the most important earnings release this week. Tesla share price | Source: Saxo Source: Earnings Watch Netflix ASML and Tesla | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  Today we look at another choppy US equity market session, with a fresh rally attempt in late trading on far better than expected Netflix results and guidance. That rally is unlikely to persist as long as US treasury yields continue to set new highs for the cycle, as they did briefly this morning. The very weak JPY and fresh CNH weakness are key topics in FX as we also look at the key earnings coming up on our radar, especially Tesla. This and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-19-2022-19102022

Tesla peaked back in January 2021 and has since been in an expanded flat correction as wave B went above the peak of wave 3 at 300 and closed at 414.50. We see a possible S/H/S top building but need a break below the neckline support at 206 to confirm the top formation and a decline towards at least 136 and possibly even closer to 118 before a corrective low is in place for wave 4. As for the long-term outlook, the expected decline can take many months to complete. However, for now, we are looking for a possible break below 206 that will open up for the expected decline towards 136 and possibly lower.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-10-21 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/297567

Summary:  The major US indices, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 fell on weaker-than-expected company news, Putin clearing martial law, and more hawkish Fed comments. 10-year US bond yields hit 4.14%, its highest since July 2008 which boosted the US dollar against every G-10 peer. Netflix, the standout performer up 13% following their mostly better-than-expected results. Tesla shares slid after hours on weaker-than-expected 3Q results. AU jobs data disappoints, putting the focus back on the AUD and banking shares. Across the Asia Pacific, all eyes are on energy and oil stocks after the Crude oil price lifted 3% on EIA warnings. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) fall on weaker than expected company news, Putin clearing martial law & hawkish Fed comments US stocks fell on the backfoot after a two-day rally, with the 10-year US bond yield hitting 4.136% in the session, which is its highest level since July 2008, while 2-years rose to the highest since 2007. That in turn boosted the dollar, which rallied against every G-10 peer. Gold dropped. It comes as Fed speakers warned US inflation continues to surprise to the upside, saying there’s no reason to think key price measures have peaked. Over in UK and Canada CPI came in stronger than expected in September, up 10.1% year on year (YOY) and 6.9% YOY respectively, ensuring the Bank of England and Bank of Canada keep on hiking rates.  Earnings enthusiasm faded with backup generator manufacturing Generac (GNR) shares sliding 25% on slashing its full year sales outlook. While community bank M&T (MTB) shares crumbled 14% on the company reporting weaker than expected results. On the upside, oil stocks charged with Baker Hughes (BKR), Valero Energy (VLO) and Halliburton (HAL) up over 5% each. While Netflix (NFLX) was the stand out performer up 13% following their mostly better than expected result released the day prior as we mentioned here.  S&P 500 dropped 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 slid 0.4%. 10 of the 11 sectors of S&P 500 declined with the notable exception of Energy, which rose 2.9%. 10-year U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) jumped to 4.13% Higher-than-expected U.K. inflation prints, hawkish comments from Fed’s Bullard and Kashkari, poor results from the 20-year treasury bond auction, and corporate bond supply contributed to an around 13bp rise in yields across the curve. The 2-year yield rose to 4.56% and the 10-year surged to 4.13%, both reaching new highs. The 20-year auction was awarded at 2.5bps cheaper than the market level at the time of the auction, indicating poor demand. Corporate bond issuance amounted to around USD15 billion and added to the upward pressure on yields. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIV2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index fell 2.4% by mid-day, as China Internet stocks reversed the bounce in the past two days, falling by 4% to 7%, and local property developer names paring early gains as the relief for extra stamp duties for non-resident home buyers in the maiden Policy Address of the Hong Kong Chief Executive is less extensive than expected. Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016:xhkg) dropped 3.6% and New World Development (00017:xhkg) tumbled 7.8%. Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388:xhkg), falling 2%, reported a 30% Y/Y decline in EPS in Q3, slightly better-than-feared. EV stocks tumbled, with Xpeng (09868:xhkg) falling 9.5% and other leading names losing by 4% to 7%.  Tanker and dry bulk operator COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (01138:xhkg) soared more than 10%. In mainland bourses, the CSI300 fell 1.6%, with Consumer Staple and Consumer Discretionary sectors being the worst performers, falling over 3%. While all major sectors in the CSI300 declined, lithium battery makers, shipping, and coal mining companies gained. Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1), focus is on bank and energy stocks It’s worth keeping an eye on banking stocks particularly regional banks that could see more volatility, like Suncorp (SUN), Bendigo and Adelaide (BEN) and Bank of Queensland (BOQ). Also, today focus will be on oil stocks like Santos (STO), Woodside Energy Group (WDS) and Beach Energy (BPT) after the oil price darted ahead. Japanese yen flirting with 150, GBP facing political hurdles There is a lot of sense of “urgency” in the Japanese officials as USDJPY continues to flirt with the 150 handle. The surge higher in US yields overnight is likely to further pressure the yen, and FinMin Suzuki’s comments this morning on taking appropriate steps to curb speculative moves still suggest they stand ready to intervene if USDJPY rises above 150. Meanwhile, the rebound in the US dollar weighed on G10 currencies, with GBP suffering despite a pick up n BOE rate hike bets after the higher than expected UK CPI print, as political turmoil continued to weigh. Three officials left the office yesterday, including the Home Secretary and Chief Whip, although there were reports later that some of them will remain in post. Meanwhile, the fight for Truss to stay in office continues. GBPUSD testing the downside at 1.1200. USDCNH climbed to as high as 7.2790 The Chinese offshore yuan weakened to as much as 7.2790 this morning and is trading at around 7.2680 as of writing. Higher U.S. bond yields, sell-offs in Chinese stocks, concerns over a harsher line on income redistribution in China, and reports about talks on the joint production of weapons between the U.S. and Taiwan weighed on the yuan.  Gold (XAUUSD) slumps as the dollar momentum returns Gold prices heading lower to test the support at $1620/oz amid risk aversion and higher Fed bets propelling US yields higher and a rebound in the US dollar. Hawkish Fed speak yesterday, together with fresh highs in UK CPI, suggested higher-for-longer inflation and interest rates, while demand for the yellow metal also remains depressed due to ongoing lockdowns in China.  Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) in focus again following EIA warnings Oil extended gains rising 3.3% to $85.55 after EIA earlier reported US crude stockpiles dropped by 1.73 million barrels last week. Four-week seasonal demand for distillate fuels soared to the highest since 2007 while inventories remained at the lowest point on record for this time of year.  What to consider? Fed speakers further up the hawkish ante James Bullard and Neel Kashkari kept up their hawkish Fed rhetoric, in light of the burgeoning global price pressures. Bullard warned that inflation continues to surprise to the upside and the Fed needs to continue to act, also emphasising higher-for-longer rates even if inflation starts to decline in 2023. Kashkari (2023 voter) added that there is no reason to think that key price measures have peaked, and he sees little evidence of a labor market softening. He also reiterated the Saxo view that “risk of under shooting on rate hikes bigger than overdoing it”. He also said his best guess is the Fed can pause hikes sometime next year but he favours rate hikes until core inflation starts to cool, noting the Fed's rate changes take a year or so to work through the economy. Chicago Fed President Evans was also on the wires this morning, and given that he’s retiring next year, he was accepting of the fact that “beginning rate hikes six months earlier would have made sense.” UK CPI comes out hotter than expected, Euro headline inflation more subtle UK inflation came in at double-digits again, matching the 40-year high in July, at 10.1% y/y. This puts further pressure on the Bank of England to go big with its rate hike at the November meeting. Price pressures were broad-based, but most notable was the increase in food price. Scaling back of aid for electricity and natural gas prices, as suggested by the latest fiscal measures announced by Chancellor Hunt, could fuel further inflationary pressures next year. Eurozone headline inflation, on the other hand, was revised lower to 9.9% for September from flash reading of 10.0% but core measure rose to 5.8% y/y from 5.2% y/y in August, coming in at a record high. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 75bps at the October 27 meeting. Tesla shares slide after hours on reporting weaker-than-expected results Tesla (TSLA) shares fell 2.7% after hours when the EV giant reported third-quarter sales falling short of analyst estimates, noting the US dollar’s growing strength, along with production and delivery bottlenecks impacted results. Tesla’s Revenue rose to $21.5 billion, versus $22.1 billion expected by Wall Street. Profit rose to $1.05 a share, exceeding the $1.01 average Bloomberg estimate. And the closely watched Q3 automotive gross margin, came in at 27.9%, missed the 28.4% expected. Tesla cited higher costs related to a slower-than-expected ramp up in output at new factories, as well as difficulties shipping vehicles. Tesla’s shares are down almost 45% from their high against the backdrop of a slowing economy, higher inflation and rising interest rates, plus Musk’s $44 billion bid to buy Twitter. For more on Tesla click here to read Peter Garnry’s note. Discussion between the U.S. and Taiwan on joint weapon production According to Nikkei Asia, the Biden administration and Taiwan are in talks for American defense companies to provide Taiwan technology to manufacture weapons in Taiwan or to ship Taiwan-made parts to make weapons in the U.S. This, reading together with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s warning this Monday that “a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline” and President Biden’s remarks of deploying U.S. forces to defend Taiwan in a CBS 60 Minutes interview last month, stirred up some unease among investors. Separately on Wednesday, Taiwan conducted live-fire military drills on Penghu Island, an archipelago in the Taiwan Strait. Investors are feeling unease about the introduction of the concept of regulating the means of accumulated wealth in China in an official document in China Market chatters show some investors are feeling unease about the phrase “we will improve the personal income tax system and keep income distribution and the means of accumulating wealth well-regulated” in the Work Report delivered by General Secretary Xi at the Chinese Communist Party’s National Congress last Sunday. The concept of regulating the means of accumulating wealth (规范财富积累机制) shows up in an official document for the first time. Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee unveils his plans for active industrial policies and integration into national development schemes In his maiden Policy Address, Chief Executive John Lee unveils a Steering Group on Integration into National Development to devise strategic plans to integrate Hong Kong’s economy into the mainland’s Greater Bay Area development scheme and the Belt and Road Initiative. Li also rolls out investment-led measures aiming to boost the Hong Kong economy, including setting up a Hong Kong Investment Corporation which will establish and fund an HKD30 billion public-private co-investment fund to invest in projects that potentially drive industry development in Hong Kong. Hong Kong will also establish the Office for Attracting Strategic Enterprises whose mandate is to attract business enterprises from the mainland and overseas through favorable tax, financing, land provision, and other incentives. Weaker yen to prop up Japan inflation further Japan’s inflation data for September is due for release on Friday, and as signalled by the Tokyo CPI released earlier this month, price pressures are likely to pick up further. Bloomberg consensus expects the core measure (ex-fresh food) to come in at 3.0% y/y from August’s 2.8% y/y while the core-core measure (ex-fresh food and energy) is expected at 1.8% y/y in September from 1.6% y/y previously. The headline is expected to be a notch softer at 2.9% y/y from 3.0% y/y, but still remain way above the 2% target level. Weakness in the yen prompted an intervention from the Bank of Japan in September but the effect faded fast and the currency was significantly weaker in the month, which possible led to import price pressures. Still, the central bank is unlikely to shift its easing stance and will likely continue to wait for the global pressures to ease and USD to top out.       Aussie unemployment rises. Employment falls Traders digested much weaker than expected jobs data for September. Data released today showed just 923 jobs were added to the economy, much weaker than the 25,000 jobs Bloomberg estimated to be added. It also shows employment is falling ahead of RBA’s expectations, with less jobs added to the Australian economy, following last month’s 33,500 jobs being added. Also in important news; the unemployment rate rose by less than 0.1 percentage points, but remained at 3.5% in rounded terms. The reason for this is because rate rises and rising inflation is having a greater impact on the corporate world with the RBA also noting business insolvencies are rising in Australia.   For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-20-oct-20102022

Summary:  Investors are used to Tesla beating estimates but last night the EV-maker surprised investors missing revenue and automotive gross margin estimates as the EV-maker faced battery constraints during the quarter and delivery transportation capacity during peak deliveries at the end of the quarter. While the company disappointed against estimates revenue growth was still impressive 56% y/y and the company is reiterating its 50% average growth target over the coming years, something analysts are not agreeing with seeing revenue growth declining to 14% in 2025. The physical world is tough on Tesla Tesla shares are down 5% in extended trading following Q3 results showing revenue of $21.5bn vs est. $22.1bn and adjusted EPS of $1.05 vs est. $1.01. Q3 automotive gross margin came in at 27.9% vs est. 28.4%. Tesla says that battery supply constraints remain the key limiting factor on deliveries and scaling up the production; Tesla also mentions that ramping up production of its new battery 4680 cells has proven to be more difficult. In addition, delivery transport capacity was a limiting factor on deliveries in Q3 and the EV-maker is working to smooth this process going forward. While investors are reacting to the lower than expected revenue growth and gross margin, Tesla is doubling down on its 50% average growth rate target. Back in April, CEO Elon Musk said that the company would deliver 1.5mn cars this year so with around 930,000 deliveries as of the first nine months, the EV-maker must delivery 570,000 cars in Q4 which would be an increase of 86% y/y which seems like a very high bar to climb given the recent quarters growth in deliveries and the constraints mentioned above. Looking at analyst estimates for revenue the analyst community does not buy the 50% growth story as revenue growth is projected to fall from 57% in 2022 to 14% in 2025. Tesla is not saying much directly on the demand situation as it relates to the current volatility and high prices on electricity which could slow down the transition to electric vehicles. Earlier today, Ally Financial which is one of the biggest US lenders of auto loans said that it sees a slowdown in auto loans and the company also missed estimates. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/tesla-misses-on-gross-margin-and-reiterates-lofty-goals-20102022

Summary: Concerns that inflation & logistic difficulties may have slowed the EV manufacturer's development. Tesla fell short of automotive gross margin estimates. Tesla share prices down Tesla Inc. shares dropped by roughly 5% in pre-bell trading on Thursday as Wall Street analysts worried that growing inflation and logistical difficulties may have slowed the electric vehicle manufacturer's development. At least five brokerages reduced their price targets for the stock, with Wedbush Securities making the greatest reduction of $60 to lower its goal to $300 and citing softer deliveries in 2022. "The bullish narrative is clearly hitting a rough patch as Tesla must now prove again to the Street that the robust growth story is running into a myriad of logistics issues as opposed to demand softening," Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a note. In premarket trade, the stock, which has lost 37% of its value this year, dropped 4.6% to $211.80. The company warned that difficulties it was having with logistics could prevent it from meeting its goal of a 50% increase in delivery volume this year in its quarterly results report. Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, acknowledged that "demand is slightly harder" than it would otherwise be on a post-earnings call, but he reiterated that the business was quite optimistic in having a record fourth quarter. Tesla fell short of automotive gross margin estimates despite increased selling prices for its vehicles due to manufacturing ramp-up costs at its new factories in Austin, Texas, and Berlin, Germany. However, other analysts believe Tesla will benefit greatly from the global transition toward electric automobiles. Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, noted that demand was high while discussing the company's third-quarter profits. He did, however, issue a warning that deflationary tendencies in the economy were intensifying and that China and Europe were going through "a form of recession." TSLA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com

In the world of macro data this week, the market was able to take a break from central banks' decisions on interest rate changes. On Tuesday, we had the results of the German economic sentiment index, which turned out to be more positive than expected at -59.2 points (forecast -65.7 points). Further down, however, are the low levels last seen during the crisis in 2008. Macro Data Wednesday saw the release of CPI inflation results for the Eurozone and the UK, among others, which were close to market expectations at 9.9% (forecast 10%) and 10.1% (forecast 10%), respectively. The data showed that inflation still seems to be breaking records.  Finally, of the key macroeconomic data, the number of new applications for unemployment benefits filed in the United States was positive, falling to 214,000 (forecast 230,000).   There is an estimation that the rising global inflation and the non-worsening labour market may not change the monetary policy stance from central banks. As it was mentioned in the morning's commentary on the bond market: "Looking at the chart of the quotation of the ETF with the symbol AGG, someone could see that since the peak in August 2020, the price of a unit of this fund has fallen by more than 20 percent [...] Nevertheless, presently, until the peak in US interest rate hikes is reached, this market may continue to be under pressure." Source: Conotoxia MT5, AGG, Weekly Stock Market The current week has been in terms of the earnings season for the third quarter of this year, particularly reported results from the banking sector, most of which reported positive earnings per share (EPS) results than expectations. Among others, Bank of America Corp. (BankofUS) EPS 0.81 (forecast 0.77), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) EPS 8.25 (forecast 7.69), or Blackstone Inc. (Blackstone) 1.06 (forecast 0.99). This could be a positive sign, because as the stock market saying goes, "there is no bull market without banks."  Surprising for analysts were the results of Tesla (Tesla), Netflix (Netflix) and Snap (Snap), which do not seem to be affected by the spectre of recession. The giant, which sells electric cars, improved net income to $3.33 billion (forecast $1.65 billion), revenue growth jumped 55 percent year-on-year, and earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.05 (forecast $0.99). Netflix surprised with its first increase in subscriptions since the beginning of the year, which may have pushed its stock price up more than 10 percent at the opening of Wednesday's session.  Source: Conotoxia MT5, Netflix, Weekly In the social media market, one of the first reports was presented by the owner of Snapchat, whose y/y revenues did not seem to show significant change. Investors seem to reacted negatively, however, after the number of users of the Snapchat app appears to have fallen for the fifth consecutive quarter.Source: Conotoxia MT5, Snap, Weekly Currency Market In the absence of a decision on interest rate changes this week,  someone  could see no significant changes in the currency market. The EUR/USD pair continues to hover below parity at 1.00. Recall that these are values previously seen more than 20 years ago. Noticeably weakened the Japanese yen against the US dollar (USD/JPY) piercing the level of JPY 150. The question of possible intervention by the Bank of Japan is beginning to arise, as the exchange rate of this currency pair has risen by more than 30 percent since the beginning of the year. For the British pound, on the other hand, more uncertainty may continue, due to political developments. The recent rise in the GBP/USD pair came after the resignation of the British Prime Minister from office. Source: Conotoxia MT5, GBP/USD, Weekly The earnings season continues next week? Next week on Wall Street will be packed with the publication of reports from well-known companies. On Tuesday, Google will present quarterly results along with Coca-Cola or Microsoft. On Wednesday, there will be a report from Apple, which recently decided to cut orders for the new iPhone due to falling demand. Facebook will also present results on that day. Online retail giant Amazon will present its report on Thursday, October 27, along with McDonald's and MasterCard.  In addition, next week we could expect, among other things, the ECB's decision on interest rates in the Eurozone, CPI inflation in Germany and GDP results in the United States. In addition, at the end of the week there will be a meeting of the central Bank of Japan (BoJ), where it is possible that the topic of possible intervention in the foreign exchange market or a change in the range for Japanese bond yields would come up. The results of Tuesday's consumer mood report from the United States (CB Consumer Confidence) may seem interesting.    Grzegorz Dróżdż, a Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Crypto Industry News: According to Tesla's latest Q3 earnings report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the electric vehicle manufacturer has revealed that it has invested a total of $1.5 billion in Bitcoin since early 2021. Of this amount, the company now has a $170 million unrealized loss resulting from the change in the fair value of its investment. This is offset by a $64 million profit on Bitcoin profits at various times in the past two years, leading to a net loss of $ 106 million by the end of the third quarter. Tesla's losses, however, did not significantly affect the company's core business. The electric vehicle manufacturer's profits grew 169% year-on-year from $3.3 billion in the first nine months of 2021. However, the company only has around 218 million in Bitcoin on its balance sheet. According to the law, digital assets are considered intangible assets with an indefinite useful life. Consequently, any decline in their fair value will require Tesla to recognize an impairment loss, while the company does not make upward adjustments for any price increases up to the point of sale. Under this favorable tax treatment, losses can be deducted from profits to reduce tax liability, while capital gains are not taxed until sale. Technical Market Outlook: After the BTC/USD pair made the market made a Shooting Star candlestick pattern at the level of $19,678, the market reversed and is consolidating around the local trend line. The nearest technical support is seen at $19,248 and $19,078, however, the target for bears is the swing low and range low seen at the level of $18,150. The supply zone located between the levels of $20,221 - $20,580 (marked as a red rectangle) is very important for bulls from a technical point of view, because only a sustained breakout above it would change the outlook to more bullish, so please keep an eye on this zone for a possible breakout towards the next target seen at $22,410. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $20,025 WR2 - $19,682 WR1 - $19,461 Weekly Pivot - $19,340 WS1 - $19,119 WS2 - $18,997 WS3 - $18,655 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout in the long term.     Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298195

After both Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt pulled out of the British PM race, Rushi Sunak cried victory on Monday afternoon, and markets cried ‘Ready for Rishi’. The new UK Prime Minister The British sovereign bonds posted one of the biggest gains on record, the 10-year gilt yield tanked 8.50%, the 30-year yield dived 8.40%, sterling gained. Investors loved seeing Sunak become the new UK Prime Minister, they, however, hated seeing Xi Jinping confirm a third term. NASDAQ Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon China index lost more than 20% yesterday and closed the session more than 14% down. Direxion’s FTSE China Bear times 3 ETF jumped almost 30% in the session. Macro data On macro, the PMI data revealed yesterday did little good to the mood in Europe. The composite PMI fell to 47.1, which is the lowest level since April 2013. In the US, the services sector saw a sharp, and an unexpected decline to 46.6, from 49.3 printed a month earlier, and 49.6 expected by analysts. Japanese core CPI advanced to 2% versus 1.9% expected by analysts. The dollar-yen trades touch below the 149 mark after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened to slowdown the depreciation in yen. US tech giants In the corporate space, two big US tech giants are due to announce earnings: Alphabet and Microsoft. Their revenues are expected to have slowed in the latest quarter, but how much of the slowdown is already priced in? Walking into the results, it’s important to remember that soft results don’t necessarily mean negative market reaction. If the soft results still beat the market estimates, we could see Google, and Microsoft shares rally. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:39 Markets are ready for Rishi! 2:52 …but not for Xi. 4:32 PMI data disappoint 6:00 Japanese inflation advance 7:25 Google earnings preview 9:07 Microsoft earnings preview 10:20 Option traders bet for Tesla below $200! Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Google #Microsoft #earnings #UK #PM #Rishi #Sunak #GBP #USD #JPY #BoJ #ECB #China #XiJinping #selloff #Tesla #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5  ___  Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

UPS reports its positive results. Negative news is pouring in from Asia. And also we met the new UK prime minister. In this article: The next UK prime minister Summary of Q3 Electric-vehicle market Asia’s economic outlook FedEx problems Rishi Sunak to become the next UK prime minister CNBC Now tweets about the new prime minister of UK BREAKING: Rishi Sunak set to be Britain's new prime minister as rival Penny Mordaunt drops out https://t.co/sNXCUoAvtq — CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 24, 2022 Rishi Sunak is set to become Britain’s new prime minister, succeeding Liz Truss who resigned Thursday. Liz Truss was the shortest reigning prime minister in the UK, the current situation has surpassed her. After Liz Truss' resignation, there were voices that Boris Johnson would again take over the British government. But as we know, these were only false guesses. Current information that Sunak will take over this position. He will not become prime minister immediately because, according to the ritual, the outgoing prime minister, in this case Truss, must first resign in favor of King Charles. After that, the king will appoint another prime minister, Sunak, in the coming days. The question is whether the new prime minister will cope with the challenges that await him and restore stability to the British economy? UBS results UBS in its tweets shares the results for the third quarter. Particularly noteworthy is the tweet with the statement by CEO Ralph Hamers. Hear from our CEO Ralph Hamers on the progress we made over the third quarter as well as the trends we saw for client activity. pic.twitter.com/OjEAeb5WeV — UBS (@UBS) October 25, 2022 UBS Group AG, as an international investment bank and financial services company, enjoys popularity and high profits. Along with the end of a certain period, in this case of the third quarter, the company summed up its achievements. The situation on the markets is diversified, and the observation of new trends may prove very helpful for the functioning of the instance. In the author's post, you can find out about the situation of UBS, which can affect its prominence and positions in financial services. Toyota and electric-vehicle Reuters Business tweets about electric-vehicle. On @Breakingviews: Toyota is mulling its third electric-vehicle reboot in 13 months. Frequent rejigs can mean bigwigs are flailing for ideas. But its latest overhaul implies boss Akio Toyoda is addressing missteps with more speed, says @AntonyMCurrie https://t.co/ayxtHq1ZAC pic.twitter.com/OuHPhkGTLQ — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 25, 2022 There is no doubt that electronic vehicles have become something desirable. Many car manufacturing companies try to modernize their products. One of them is Toyota, which is trying to match the giant in the production of electronic cars, Tesla. Some people may take away from trying to look for new ideas, and for some it means growing their business. Public debt in Asia has increased The IMF in its post addresses the topic of economic problems in Asia. Amid Asia’s dimming economic outlook and rising inflation, public debt has risen substantially in Asia over the past 15 years—particularly in the advanced economies and China. https://t.co/gDWrrRU0uD pic.twitter.com/YvJDzyAM7c — IMF (@IMFNews) October 25, 2022 Economies around the world struggle with the problems of rising inflation and its negative impact on the functioning of economies. China as Asia's largest economy is also struggling. Despite yesterday's positive results (Read more : Growth In China's Trade Balance. Significant Declines In Major Sectors Of Europe And Great Britain| FXMAG.COM), there is a bigger problem of public debt. Public debt is growing rapidly, which means that the governments of Asian countries are indebted to power. Despite positive reports, such a situation may have negative consequences for the economy. This may mean that a financial crisis is approaching, and as we know from history, dealing with this problem can be laborious and very expensive. Companies face problems Bloomberg Terminal tweets about the market loses of the FedEx shipping company. FedEx lost $11 billion in market value last month, wiping out two years of stock gains, after it pulled its forecast, feeding into fears of a global demand slowdown.https://t.co/OthLH3tipw — Bloomberg Terminal (@TheTerminal) October 24, 2022 The economic slowdown and rising inflation affect the situation of shipping companies. The prognosis is not very good. FedEx and UPS expect to see dramatic drops in US and global shipments. Which will have a negative impact on the financial result of these companies, and thus may cause a reduction in employment.

Summary: Credit Suisse is essentially dismantling the investment bank. EV with self-driving capabilities was involved in many accidents. Musk has until October 28 to complete his $44 billion acquisition of TWTR. Credit Suisse to restructure Credit Suisse Group AG announced a restructure that will result in a multibillion dollar capital raising, thousands of job cutbacks, and the separation of the investment bank, taking the most drastic moves yet to restore the firm. According to a statement released on Thursday, the company intends to raise 4 billion francs ($4.1 billion) by selling shares to investors, including the Saudi National Bank, and through a rights issue. By splitting up the advice and capital markets businesses and selling the majority of its SPG business to Apollo Global Management Inc. and Pacific Investment Management Co., it is essentially dismantling the investment bank. After a string of significant losses and managerial upheaval destroyed Credit Suisse's reputation as one of the most respected institutions in Europe, the makeover is an urgent effort to rebuild trust. Ulrich Koerner, the bank's chief executive officer, and Chairman Axel Lehmann, who were appointed as crisis managers, now have the difficult task of carrying out the largest restructuring in the bank's recent history while attempting to safeguard the wealth management division that will determine its future. Credit Suisse seeks billions from investors in make-or-break overhaul https://t.co/MSy4Q4h7fT pic.twitter.com/e9mg3eUByl — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 27, 2022 TSLA under criminal investigation The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) released its initial wave of data on car crashes involving vehicles with autonomous driving systems in June of last year as part of its attempts to increase traffic safety while still encouraging innovation. It came out that a very well-liked electric car with self-driving capabilities was involved in a lot more accidents than was previously thought. Ten months of data were covered in the June report. It showed that when employing fully autonomous capabilities like Tesla's Autopilot, ADAS-equipped vehicles crashed 392 times, with Tesla vehicles accounting for 273 of those collisions. It represents around 70% of the cases. Given this context, it was logical but yet surprising to learn that the Department of Justice is looking into Tesla as part of a criminal investigation. The revelation that the Department of Justice is looking into Tesla as part of a criminal probe made sense given this backdrop, but it was nonetheless unexpected. The Justice Department is looking into possible customer misinformation regarding the functionality and security of the self-driving feature. For the mere reason that Tesla emphasizes in its own materials that the cars are not yet capable of completely autonomous driving, it might be challenging to make any form of claim against the company over excessive promises. Tesla is under criminal investigation in the United States over claims that the company's electric vehicles can drive themselves, three people familiar with the matter said https://t.co/HQh5rvn54u pic.twitter.com/oGo5ZKtWqT — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 27, 2022 Musk to acquire TWTR by October 28th According to the website of the New York Stock Exchange, trading in Twitter Inc. (TWTR) shares will be paused on Friday because entrepreneur Elon Musk has until October 28 to complete his $44 billion acquisition of the social media platform. Musk, the richest man in the world, visited Twitter's San Francisco offices on Wednesday and implied that he was the company's top executive by changing his profile bio to "Chief Twit." Reuters stated on Tuesday that Musk's attorneys had provided the necessary documentation for the finance pledge to equity investors Sequoia Capital, Binance, Qatar Investment Authority, and others. The closing of the transaction would put an end to Twitter's litigation. Twitter, together with the investors, now anticipate that the transaction will close at the agreed-upon price of $54.20 per share. On Wednesday, the NYSE saw the company's stock close at $53.35 per share. They were trading slightly below Musk's offer price in extended trading, up nearly 1% at $53.90. *TWITTER WILL BE DELISTED FROM THE NYSE ON FRIDAY AFTER MUSK COMPLETES DEAL$TWTR pic.twitter.com/jasBHEMrJp — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 27, 2022 Sources: twitter.com, investing.com, reuters.com, finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com

Summary:  Markets are trying to build some positive energy as the volatility in the US treasury market has eased in recent days, although Fed tightening expectations remain near the peak for the cycle ahead of another important CPI release on Thursday, certainly the macro event of the week. Today is mid-term election day in the US, where the Republicans are expected to take back at least the House of Representatives.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities gained 0.8% pushing above the 3,800 level and the 50-day moving average. The resistance level is up at around the 3,900 level with the 3,724 level being the short-term support level to watch. For US equities the biggest event to watch is today’s Midterm elections in the US which could change the political landscape in favour of the Republicans flipping the House. But for years polls have been terrible in predicting anything on US politics, so we remain neutral on the outcome. The US 10-year yield is advancing to 4.22% adding headwinds on equity valuations. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) The China reopening trade took a pause in Hong Kong and the mainland bourses as domestically transmitted new cases in the mainland doubled to 7,455. Guangzhou, the capital city of the Southern Guangdong province reported 2,377 new cases and launched mandatory testing in 9 of the 11 districts of the city and extended the lockdown of Haizhu district to Friday. Hang Sang Index fell 0.7% and CSI300 dropped 1.3%. FX: USD near important support ahead of Thursday’s US CPI The US dollar traded in a narrow range yesterday, with EURUSD near parity this morning after trading solidly above yesterday, but not yet threatening the 1.1094 pivot high from late October. Elsewhere, GBPUSD has traded briefly above 1.1500 but is still bottled up below the key range high above 1.1600, while AUDUSD is closer to the cusp of a break-out as it has traded as high as 0.6491, just shy of the 1-month pivot high of 0.6522 and the AUD likely keying off developments in China (hopes for an easing of Covid restrictions, commodities following through higher after last week’s rally, etc.) It feels like the next move for the greenback will key off the Thursday October CPI release, as CPI releases have sparked considerable volatility in recent months. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Crude oil remains in consolidatory mode after failing to find additional buying interest during Monday’s temporary break above the October high in Brent at $98.75 and $93.65 in WTI. The themes driving markets remain the same with supply worries driven by OPEC+ production cuts and EU sanctions against Russian oil from December 5 being offset by concerns about the health of the global economy and China’s prolonged battle with Covid with daily infections hitting a six-month high. Despite this latest acceleration in cases, the market has started to price in a lifting of restrictions sometimes early next year, an event Goldmans estimate could add between $6 and $15 upside risks to prices.  Today, the US Midterm elections is likely to steal some of the attention ahead of API’s weekly stock report tonight. Meanwhile, US natural gas (NGZ2) futures soared beyond $7/MMBtu on cold weather fears in the West and the Northeast before trimming the advance overnight. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) The MOVE index, a measure of the implied volatility of the US treasury market, has dipped sharply in recent days, posting its lowest levels since early September, perhaps as the market feels there are few surprises left in store from the Fed now that Fed funds expectations have reached above 5.00% and US yields at the longer end have remained bottled up in the 3.90%-4.30% range. The October US CPI release on Thursday is the next test for the US treasury market. What is going on? Bank of Japan affirms easy policy, but not without some mention of a future exit The Bank of Japan released summary of opinions of the October policy meeting today, broadly reaffirming the easy monetary policy stance. Still some members stuck a slightly different tone, noting that Japan's inflation likely to remain fairly high as there are signs service prices starting to rise, and “cannot rule out chance prices will sharply overshoot forecasts.” Still, sustained wage gains remained the base case for Japan to achieve its price target and members agreed that there was no immediate need to tweak monetary policy. Importantly, one member noted that the Bank of Japan must continue examining how a future exit from ultra-low interest rates could affect financial markets, in a rare mention of an exit. Tesla shares hit the lowest level since June 2021 Tesla shares were 5% lower yesterday as investors are getting more nervous about CEO Elon Musk intense focus on Twitter after he acquired the social media platform. Many advertisers have pulled back on advertising on Twitter leaving the company losing around $4-5mn a day with sizeable debt due. Investors are worried that Elon Musk is losing his focus but also that he will be forced to sell Tesla shares to fund Twitter operations. Nintendo still sees strong demand for Switch The gaming company lifts its FY net income projection to JPY 400bn from previously JPY 340bn on strong demand with the company seeing little impact on its sales from global inflation. Big slump in Australian business and consumer confidence Australia’s consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level in 2.5 years and business confidence also weakened as higher interest rates and surging inflation stoke caution over the economic outlook. NAB business confidence plunged to 0 from 5 in September, while the Westpac consumer confidence index was down to 78 for November from 83.7 previously. This bodes ill for spending ahead, suggesting RBA’s caution on rate hikes may continue to prevail despite the continued hot CPI reports. The Eurozone Sentix Index improved substantially, albeit from a awful level The Eurozone Sentix Investor confidence index was out at minus 30.9 in November versus 38.3 in October. This is a strong improvement. But the index was actually at its lowest level last month since March 2020. The other components increased too. The current situation improved to minus 29.5 while the expectations index jumped to minus 35.5. The uptick is clearly not a reversal trend. This is more of a rebalancing. Investors were too pessimistic in recent months regarding the evolution of the European energy crisis. The risk of energy rationing was overestimated, for instance. High gas storage and better weather will help avoid this nightmare scenario. This does not mean that the improvement in the Sentix index will continue, however. The eurozone recession will likely dampen investors’ hopes.  U.S. used car prices continue to move lower According to the Manheim index, used car prices continue to crash, with a year-over-year change at minus 10.4 % in October. This is the worst drop since December 2008. This matters because until the summer used car prices were one of the main contributors to U.S. inflation. Cryptocurrencies The crypto market is in negative territory today after growing concerns about the liquidity of the crypto exchange FTX - specifically tied to its hybrid investment fund/market maker Alameda Research. The selloff in cryptos was partly triggered by the nosedive of the FTX token, which together with the Solana token makes up a notable portion of Alameda's balance sheet. What are we watching next? US mid-term elections today Pundits suggest that the Republicans have very strong odds of flipping the House of Representatives in their favour, while the odds look finely balanced for whether the Senate ends retaining the slim Democratic majority or moves to Republican control, which would only require one more Republican seat. There are few immediate ramifications if Republicans take both houses, as US President Biden has the presidential veto, but a stronger than expected Democratic showing that somehow sees them retaining the House and strengthening their Senate majority would be a game changer – opening for more policy dynamism (and inflation from fiscal stimulus) from the US over the next two years rather than the expected lame-duck presidency. The latter is a very unlikely scenario, but uncertainty is high as pollsters have had a hard time gathering accurate polls, especially for specific states, for every election since Trump’s victory in 2016. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Walt Disney which is expected to deliver revenue growth of 15% y/y but also significant margin pressure with gross margin expected at 32.5% the lowest Q1 2021. EPS is expected at $0.51 down from $0.91 in Q2. Monday: Westpac Banking, Coloplast, Ryanair (see earnings review above), Activision Blizzard, BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, SolarEdge Technologies Tuesday: Bayer, Deutsche Post, KE Holdings, Nintendo, Walt Disney, Occidental Petroleum, Lucid Group, DuPont Wednesday: National Australia Bank, KBC Group, Genmab, Siemens Healthineers, E.ON, Adidas, Honda Motor, Coupang, Rivian Automotive, Roblox, DR Horton, Trade Desk Thursday: Brookfield Asset Management, Fortum, Engie, Credit Agricole, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, SMIC, Nexi, AstraZeneca, ArcelorMittal, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Becton Dickinson, NIO Friday: Richemont Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – UK Bank of England’s Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak 1100 – US Oct. NFIB Small Business Optimism 1600 – UK BoE’s Pill to speak 1700 – EIA's Monthly Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) 2030 – API Weekly Report on US Oil Inventories 0130 – China Oct. PPI/CPI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-8-2022-08112022

Summary:  Today we look at markets as we await US elections today and the US CPI data print on Thursday, all while everyone has very twitchy trading fingers on hopes that China is set to ease up on its Covid restrictions. We also discuss the simultaneous decline in bond market and equity market volatility and ask which asset class might be more attractive. Equity sentiment has improved sharply and is near six-month highs. In commodities, we zero in on nat-gas, gold, cocoa and coffee. Stocks to watch, including Tesla, upcoming earnings from Disney and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-nov-8-2022-08112022

Summary: Twitter does not make money like Tesla. The serial entrepreneur made an effort to reassure Tesla's supporters and investors . Investor confidence in Musk is lacking The maker of high-end electric vehicles appears to be going through a similar experience to that of an orphaned kid or a beloved who has fallen from grace. Elon Musk, the company's dynamic and forward-thinking co-founder and CEO, appears to have lost interest in it. Put the blame on Twitter (TWTR), which needs a lot of attention due to its enormous influence on public and political life. While Twitter does not make money like Tesla, it is nonetheless seen as our generation's equivalent of the town square, where trend-setters and opinion leaders congregate. Twitter sets the daily political agenda and the conversational subjects that eventually predominate in mainstream media coverage. Responsibility also comes with this authority. You are responsible for the content management policy, which requires constant vigilance. Any error in the content that is put on the platform has the potential to spark controversy, which can be difficult and time-consuming to resolve. Musk paid too much for Twitter—$44 billion. As part of the leveraged buyout, the billionaire owes around $13 billion in debt, which is secured by his remaining Tesla stock. He has been looking for ways to make money for the social network since he took control on October 27. But as Musk becomes more active on Twitter, Tesla's stock price declines. At the Baron Investment Conference on November 4, the billionaire claimed that since he bought Twitter, his workload had increased from "78 hours a week to perhaps 120." The serial entrepreneur made an effort to reassure Tesla's supporters and investors by claiming that he was still actively involved in the company's management. The message didn't reassure anyone. Since that time, Wall Street has seen a continuous decline in the price of Tesla stock. Tesla shares dropped to $196.66 at the close of trade on November 7—their lowest price in 52 weeks. Since Musk sealed the Twitter agreement on October 27, Tesla stock has fallen 12.4%. Tesla shares have lost a total of 41.2% of their value, or $197.08, since Musk revealed his offer on April 25. This results in a market value decline of about $436 billion. The holding company of renowned investor Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), surpassed Tesla on November 7 to become the sixth-largest corporation in the world by market capitalization. TSLA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com

Tesla has broken clearly below the S/H/S top's neckline and is heading lower towards at least 132 and possibly closer to 85 in the months ahead. Short-term we should expect support near 170 to be able to temporarily reject the decline and send Tesla closer to resistance near 225 before the next strong decline in 2023.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-11-11 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/300405

Summary: The Fed may think about delaying the rate of rate rises at its next meeting. Shareholders claim that Tesla has benefited its co-founder and CEO at their expense. U.S. stocks just experienced their greatest week since June. Fed is still committed to decreasing inflation Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Sunday that the U.S. Federal Reserve may think about delaying the rate of rate rises at its next meeting, but it should not be seen as a "softening" in its commitment to decrease inflation. Waller responded to a series of questions on monetary policy at an economic conference hosted by UBS in Australia by stating that markets should now focus on the "endpoint" of rate increases rather than the speed at which each move is made. Waller also noted that the endpoint is likely still "a ways off." Inflation is a factor. Waller stated that even if the Fed stepped back from three quarter point hikes to a half point rise at its next meeting, "you're still moving up," adding that the 7.7% annualized increase in inflation recorded in October is still "enormous." This year, starting in March, the Fed increased interest rates a total of 3.75 percentage points, including four three-quarter point increases. This swift change in monetary policy was done to combat the greatest inflationary spike since the 1980s. Analysts and economists have cautioned that the tightening of monetary policy will increase the probability of a recession and have an effect on employment. Sherrod Brown, chair of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, cautioned the Federal Reserve this month against tightening monetary policy to the point where millions of Americans who are already experiencing high inflation lose their jobs. *FED MAY CUT SIZE OF RATE HIKES, BUT IS NOT 'SOFTENING' INFLATION FIGHT, WALLER WARNS - https://t.co/DtihB5nu6C pic.twitter.com/SMZnAaH5Bt — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 14, 2022 Musk is scheduled to testify this week In a lawsuit filed by shareholders who claim the electric vehicle manufacturer has benefited its co-founder and CEO at their expense, Elon Musk will attempt to demonstrate his merit for a multibillion dollar pay deal from Tesla. The richest man in the world is scheduled to testify this week in a trial that starts on Monday. He, Tesla, and members of its board are accused of violating their obligations by giving Musk share options with a maximum value of about $56 billion. Only a few weeks have passed since the 51-year-old took over Twitter, adding it to an ever-growing list of companies that he is at least nominally in charge of, including Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, and The Boring Company. Tesla shareholders concerned around Musks availability Musk's expanding portfolio, according to the attorneys representing the Tesla investors who filed the complaint, means he is too busy to serve as the automaker's chief executive on a full-time basis, let alone one deserving of a salary that "dwarfs the pay package of any other public company CEO." The case was started before Musk's $44 billion purchase of Twitter. However, the case will be keenly followed by firms all over the US, who are concerned that a victory for Tesla shareholders may spark a wave of similar lawsuits in Delaware, where the majority of the nation's public corporations are incorporated. Legal fight over Elon Musk’s $56bn Tesla pay deal heads to court https://t.co/ruh3wuXRhS — Financial Times (@FT) November 14, 2022 US stock market rally U.S. stocks just experienced their greatest week since June, and whether Wall Street can continue its winning streak in the coming days will likely depend on news from the retail industry. Investor optimism that a monetary policy shift is imminent was revived by statistics on lower inflation, but important earnings from retailers and the government's October report on the industry may put that optimism to the test. The major averages had significant gains as a result of bets that Federal Reserve officials would dial back on interest rate increases after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October indicated slowing inflation last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 4.2%, while the S&P 500 gained 5.9% for the week, its highest five-day performance since the week ending June 24. With a gain of 8.1%, the Nasdaq Composite experienced its best week since March. Stock market rally meets retail sales and retail earnings: What to know this week https://t.co/FbBltmPj4j by @alexandraandnyc — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 14, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com, investing.com, twitter.com

UK Retail sales show signs of improvement Retail sales in the UK rose by 0.6% in October compared to the expected 0.5% increase and previous 1.5% decline as British consumers managed to recover slightly despite rising inflation and the ongoing cost of living crisis. While this may appear to be a positive sign, there is still a long way to go before the economic picture begins to look brighter, particularly after yesterday's statement from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt referring to a recession. The pound is starting Friday's session attempting to hold onto some gains with GBPUSD pair testing the 1.19 area after pulling back to 1.175 yesterday. Meanwhile, the FTSE100 remains in the 7370 points area and it remains to be seen if it will be able to extend the upward move or fall further as investors continue to be uncertain. Read next: NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 earnings results outperformed part of the markets forecasts| FXMAG.COM Twitter saga continues as offices close  Twitter's turbulent story continues after Elon Musk's company just announced the closing of its offices effective immediately until next week. The decision came as a surprise to many, including the employees who were told to comply with company policy. This adds further uncertainty and skepticism as to how the new owner intends to transform the business that took months to acquire while continuing to be a controversial figure. While Twitter stock is no longer available on the market, this is certainly an interesting situation as it could have ramifications and effects on the market as a whole with many holding varying opinions on the matter. In either case, it seems that Elon Musk is willing to take chances and act in unexpected ways if it means achieving his vision for Twitter even if it costs him employees.

Summary: FTX cash has now been traced to a total of $1.24 billion by their new management team. Tesla announced it’s recalling 321,000 vehicles due to a safety problem. It’s predicted that the UK's economy will have the worst performance in the G20. Bankruptcy attorneys are working hard to stabilize FTX The bankrupt crypto conglomerate's (FTX) cash has now been traced to a total of $1.24 billion by FTX's new management team, who are working to identify the company's assets in time for a US court hearing later on Tuesday. In court documents, Edgar Mosley, an executive at the advisory firm Alvarez & Marsal, claimed that teams searching for the assets of the troubled crypto group had discovered "substantially higher cash balances” than were previously believed. After determining the amounts held in 144 of the 216 bank accounts it had linked to FTX and more than 100 affiliated companies, the company estimated in filings on Saturday that it had $564mn in bank balances. The revised cash data highlight the scope of the ongoing efforts by bankruptcy attorneys to stabilize FTX's financial situation. Sam Bankman-Fried's prior administration was criticized by the organization's new chief executive, veteran insolvency specialist John Ray III, for a "total lack of reliable financial information." The updated cash totals now include accounts belonging to Bankman-Fried's trading company Alameda Research worth around $400 million that weren't counted in the earlier total. In the face of cyberattacks, bankruptcy attorneys have also been fighting to protect FTX's stockpile of digital tokens. FTX management tracks down $1.24bn in cash holdings https://t.co/Dyl3HKpIuJ — Financial Times (@FT) November 22, 2022 The future of the UK economy looks dim The OECD said on Tuesday that countries must continue to make battling inflation their main priority. It predicted that the UK's economy will have the worst performance in the G20, aside from Russia, during the next two years. According to the OECD's most recent economic projections, UK GDP will decrease by 0.4% in 2023 and only increase by 0.2% in 2024. The Paris-based group criticized the UK government's promise to keep average household energy costs at £2,500 until April, claiming that this untargeted support would "increase pressures on already high inflation in the short term," leading to higher interest rates and debt service costs. The largest oil shock since the 1970s, meanwhile, had the global economy "reeling." According to the OECD's most recent predictions, growth in nearly every major economy is expected to be less in 2019 than it was in June as stubbornly high inflation reduced people's purchasing power. While the picture for the UK was startlingly dire, the OECD predicted growth of just 0.5% in the US and the euro area, with Germany also going into recession, and 2.2% global growth in the more resilient developing countries. The group also cautioned that the present energy crisis was "here to stay" and that Europe will be at even greater risk of experiencing gas shortages that might send the continent into a recession next winter. Breaking news: The UK’s economy is set to be the worst performer in the G20 bar Russia over the next two years, according to the OECD https://t.co/BiGs0rHChn pic.twitter.com/cohlrKKJPt — Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) November 22, 2022 Tesla’s tail light headaches Tesla (TSLA) is experiencing additional difficulties as the carmaker announced it is recalling 321,000 vehicles due to a safety problem. The car manufacturer said in a filing over the weekend that some Tesla Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs had a problem that caused the tail lamps to "intermittently glow," which in some cases resulted in poor visibility on the road. According to Tesla, the problem did not affect the brake lights. Tesla learned about the problem from owners of vehicles in non-U.S. regions, and after looking into it, decided to conduct a voluntary recall to correct the tail light issue. An over-the-air software update will be used to carry out the recall. The filing this weekend follows the recall of about 30K Model X SUVs in the US on last Friday due to a problem with the front passenger air bag, which will also be fixed with an OTA software update. Tesla recalls 321K cars for tail light issue; 19th recall this year for automaker https://t.co/Nn5I5LVyou by @Pras_S $TSLA — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 21, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com, twitter.com

Summary:  Today we look at the latest downbeat action in the equity market as we still await a more determined directional move after the multi-sigma upside explosion in the wake of the November 10 US CPI release. But it is interesting to note that the speculative nexus around crypto and Tesla are under intense pressure here and could prove a broader catalyst. We also look at the latest impact of rising Covid cases on commodities, the zany dump and pump yesterday in crude oil, the earnings and macro calendar ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-nov-22-2022-22112022

Shares of Tesla Inc. fell by more than 6.0% yesterday, forcing analysts to revise their price targets. Considering the situation the company is in now, analysts now believe Tesla stock would need to rise by a whopping 80% to reach its median analyst target price. Shares of the company, which is headed by Elon Musk, have already fallen by 52% this year to $167.87, well below analysts' projections of a 12-month average price of $302. This year's downturn has brought Tesla's market capitalization down to just $530 billion, a far cry from the $1 trillion valuation it had in April. Right now, the company is facing multiple challenges due to renewed quarantine measures in China, which are again paralyzing supply chains. Furthermore, Musk has shifted his focus to Twitter Inc. This is compounded by rising commodity prices and buyers being pressured by inflation and rising interest rates. Despite this, many analysts stick to their optimistic forecasts: 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg recommend buying the company's shares, 11 recommend holding them, and seven recommend selling them. The most optimistic forecast sees Tesla stock reaching a price of $530. However, it's clear that shares of many companies, including Tesla, will struggle to recover in the coming years, especially given the Federal Reserve's ongoing policy. Premarket movers Currently, Tesla has added 1.54% during the premarket, but that gain is very precarious. Shares of Zoom declined by 8.9% in premarket action due to weak fourth-quarter outlook, despite the videoconferencing company beating earnings and revenue expectations. Technology giant Dell gained as much as 6% after the company exceeded third-quarter earnings per share estimates, which stood at $2.30 after adjustments, about 44% above the $1.60 expected by analysts. Shares of clothing company Urban Outfitters added 2.6% after it reported higher-than-expected revenue growth in the third quarter of 2022. Earnings per share narrowly missed expectations. However, Urban Outfitters lost 1.96% at the end of the previous trading session. Shares of Agilent jumped by 4.1% after the consumer electronics company beat expectations for per-share earnings and revenue in the fourth quarter. On the technical side, the S&P 500 remains in a sideways channel after yesterday's rather quiet trading session. The main goal for bulls right now is to defend the support level of $3,942. As long as the index will remain above this level, demand for risky assets should remain. This will allow the instrument to increase and regain $3,968 and $4,003. Above it lies the level of $4,038, a breakout of which make a further upward correction towards the resistance at $4,064 more likely. The most distant target is $4,091. If the index breaks below $3,942, it will quickly drop to $3,905. From there it could test the support at $3,861. A breakout below this level will quickly push the trading instrument down to $3,905, and it will also allow the index to test the support at $3,861.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 12:00 2022-11-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/327818

Summary:  Consensus is growing for flat earnings next year but that would suggest the net profit margin staying close to the all-time high and not seeing much pressure. This stands in stark contrast to the wording from CEOs in Q3 earnings releases singling out wage pressures and margin pressure as the biggest threat to earnings. The Q3 earnings figures suggest the margin compression is accelerating and changes in the operating margin is directly associated with the change in earnings over one year. Our base case scenario is negative earnings growth next year and another troublesome year for equity investors. Flat earnings growth in 2023 is a fantasy In several equity notes we have highlighted that the 12-month forward earnings estimate on S&P 500 is too high currently at $235.34 which is 7% above the expected FY2022 EPS of $219.38. There is nothing unusual in this divergence conflicting with reality as sell-side analysts have a natural long bias, which is well described in research papers, and are slow to react and incorporate new information. The fact that the 12-month forward EPS estimate on S&P 500 is only 4% from its recent peak despite the ongoing margin compression says it all. In any case, many sell-side banks are these days publishing their S&P 500 EPS targets for 2023 and there seems to be a growing consensus that we could flat earnings. In our view this is very naïve. Let us explain why. If you take EPS of $220 next year and divide with the expected revenue per share of around $1,800 which fits pretty well with a 1-year lag in US nominal GDP growth, then you get a net profit margin of 12.2% which exactly where the 12-month trailing net profit margin stood at in September (see chart). In other words, this view implies that S&P 500 companies can maintain their net profit margin next year. Before go into the arguments why this is a completely detached assumption it is important to understand why our obsession about operating and net profit margins are so important. If you look at our scatter plot with the 1-year change in operating margin on the x-axis and 1-year change in EPS on the y-axis for the MSCI World we observe a clear association between these two variables. In other words, when looking over a short time period such as one year, the changes in earnings are strongly associated with changes in the operating margin. The variance around the linear fit is a function of revenue growth, interest rates, and the effective tax rate. Okay so talking about earnings in 2023 is essentially a talk about whether operating margins can expand, stay flat, or decline. Our view is that the operating margin will decline next year. Here is why. Companies are constantly talking about margin pressures in their Q3 earnings related to especially wage pressures and to some extent still commodities and energy costs. The fact that the Q3 net profit margin in S&P 500 is 11.9% (below the 12-month trailing figure) and trending lower suggests that margins are coming down faster than expected. The operating and net profit margin are both coming off historically high levels and margins are a mean reverting process, so this alone indicates that margins will trend down from current levels. Wage growth in the US and Europe is the highest in many decades and the main concern of CEOs as wage compensation is typically the biggest cost item for many companies. Whenever you observe outlier data points an investor and analyst should apply the precautionary principle and high wage growth is difficult to offset in an inflationary environment when recent price hikes by companies have now reached a point where they are destructive for volume growth (Home Depot being a recent example of this). Another downside risk to EPS next year is that revenue growth could be lower than current estimates as nominal GDP growth is coming down to 6.7% annualised in Q3 down from the average 12.2% annualised in 2021. On top of this, higher interest rates will increase drive financing costs higher. Not by much because only 20% of the outstanding debt is getting refinanced over the next 12 months, but it will still subtract from operating income before we reach EPS impacting the net profit margin. If we are right about our operating margin call for 2023 then the impact on S&P 500 will vary depending on the equity risk premium (P/E ratio), revenue growth and the actual net profit margin. In our recent equity note Investors should not wish for an average equity market we go through the sensitivity on the S&P 500 related to these variables. Tesla concentration could spark a domino effect on US equities Back in early 2021 we wrote several equity notes (here and here) describing the big overlap in positions among investors holding Tesla share, cryptocurrencies, and the Ark Innovation ETF. Another common red thread in this ‘risk cluster’ is that the common investor in these instruments is young men with ultra-high risk tolerance. Since early 2021 the sequence has been that first Ark Innovation ETF topped out, then cryptocurrencies and Tesla topped out in late 2021. This year cryptocurrencies have collapsed and with the recent bankruptcy and fraud at the crypto exchange FTX amplifying the risk and downside moves in cryptocurrencies. Tesla has hold the line as the social phenomenon Elon Musk has kept the narrative around Tesla’s growth intact. However, a recent mass recall of cars in the US and China’s difficulties to kickstart the economy have left investors worrying about the growth outlook. Supply constraints on batteries and generally high commodity prices, soaring energy costs, and chip shortages have constrained production for Tesla. To top it all up, Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter has pulled him into the vortex of saving the company as his decisions have scared advertising turning Twitter from a cash flow positive business to a cash burning platform with an increasing existential risk for the social media company. Investors are also beginning to worry that Musk’s behaviour on Twitter and priorities are clouding his focus and maybe even tarnishing his brand, which ultimately could spill over into the Tesla brand. Tesla shares were down 7% in yesterday’s trading and thus is a clear source of risk coming into the market with Tesla being a big position in many retail investors’ trading account. Tesla share price | Source: Saxo   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/earnings-outlook-2023-and-the-evolving-tesla-risk-22112022

Summary: Musk hasn't been the same since he lost his position at the $200 billion club. Tesla shares are being weighed down by Musk’s twitter takeover. Musk’s fortune is declining with Teslas share value He was the only member for more than ten months of the world's most exclusive financial club, which has never had more than two members present at once. Up until a few weeks ago, the CEO of Tesla - Get Free Report and owner of the microblogging website Twitter had been a frequent visitor there. The $200 billion club that is. Musk hasn't been the same since he lost his position there. If the eccentric visionary is still the richest man in the world, his money has been declining. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk possessed a fortune of $170 billion as of Nov. 21. But this year, his net worth dropped by $101 billion, or 37%. Since Musk announced his takeover attempt on April 25, Tesla shares have dropped nearly 50% to $167.87, resulting in a $525 billion decline in market capitalization. Tesla shares have fallen 25% after the billionaire closed the Twitter transaction on October 27, representing a loss in market value of $180 billion in less than a month. The price of Tesla shares is down 52.4% overall for the year. Since Musk took on $13 billion in personal debt to fund the acquisition, his early moves at Twitter produced confusion, which made it even harder for him to turn the site profitable as soon as possible. He implemented waves of layoffs, issued a deadline to workers, and reactivated the account of former President Donald Trump, who had been blocked by the social network following the events of January 6, 2021 on Capitol Hill. Two-thirds of the staff, or 5,000 workers, left as a result of all this. The seasoned businessman recently said that since gaining control of Twitter, he had little time to sleep. The ongoing decrease in Tesla stock, which accounts for a sizable portion of Musk's wealth, is hurting him. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com

This week's investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year. We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold. Let's dive in. We're told that "quitters never win." But is it always wise to stick with something when it no longer serves us — or worse, continues to harm us? Many years ago, when Texas hold'em poker was big and online gambling was allowed in Canada, I used to run a poker league and build custom poker tables for people across the United States and Canada. I love poker, and I still play it to this very day, but the game does require skill, a proper mindset, and self-discipline. Without all three of these things, poker is pure gambling. It's the same when it comes to active trading or investing if you lack the skills, mindset, and self-discipline. Retired professional poker player Annie Duke, who is also a best-selling author, and decision strategist who advises seed-stage Startups, says that learning when to quit is a critical skill, especially for investors. Annie states, "Quitting is a good thing when applied at the right time." If you've been following me for any time, then you know I follow a detailed trading strategy with position and risk management rules. As a result, you won't find me taking random trades or trading based on emotions. Instead, you'll find me patiently waiting on the sidelines for a high-probability trade signal to reinvest my capital. I trade differently. I don't diversify. I don't buy-and-hope, and I don't have any positions at certain times. What I do is reinvest in assets that are rising in value. And when a particular asset stops moving higher, I give up on the position and exit it immediately. Because I use technical analysis to follow price action, we can quickly and easily determine if an asset is rising or falling. Therefore, I can step aside and let the asset fall and look for a new opportunity that is rising, or hold the falling position and ride it lower for who knows how long… Unfortunately, most traders and investors do not understand how to read the markets, or they don't have control of their money. They are at the mercy of what the market does or the skills of whoever controls their capital. Let me share some of my market insight and help guide you On October 21st, I stated that retirement accounts should bottom and rally into the end of the year. Bonds were hitting 11-year lows. In short, anyone holding 20+ year treasury bonds had just lost more than ten years of investment growth wiped out.  Bonds, the highly touted safe, low-risk asset, fell over 47% from the 2020 high. It caused similar losses to the average investor portfolio comparable to the 2008 financial crisis. It was the worst selloff ever for treasury bonds that I can see on my charting platform. The real kicker is that the selloff in both stocks and bonds could have been avoided with just a little education and management. Subscribers and I happened to ride the COVID bond rally higher by 19%, exited the position, and moved to cash the day bond prices topped. It was partly luck to exit at the peak, but we would have exited the following trading session if we didn’t lock in profits because we managed our positions and risk. As the price reversed direction, we jumped shipped to one of my favorite positions, which almost no one thinks about or uses – CASH. 2022 has been a painful year for investors, and people are telling me they are scared to look at their investment statements. It now looks like bonds and stocks have started a seasonal rally that could help lift your portfolio as we head into the end of the year, but once it ends, look out! Bonds and Stock Seasonality Price Movement Daily Chart of 60/40 Portfolio You should have seen your account rally 6% or more since Oct 21st, and I think it will continue higher once the market digests the recent move up. While this may excite you, be aware that after this rally, we could see another 20-47% decline in stocks and bonds in 2023. This year-end bounce is nothing more than an opportunity to get out of the antiquated Buy-and-Hope strategy that does not work during a volatile and weakening economic environment. The next few charts, which are big heavyweight stocks that drive the market higher and pull it lower, should help you see what I see.  AAPL Weekly Chart and Potential Breakdown Apple is a heavyweight stock. When it moves, it moves the stock market. Currently, AAPL shares are in what I call a STAGE 3 Distribution phase, and if support is broken, then look out below! TSLA Weekly Chart and Potential Breakdown Tesla shares are another heavyweight, and its weekly chart paints a bleak future for holders. META (Facebook) Weekly Chart Breakdown Leads The Way Down Facebook, or what is now called META, is a heavyweight stock that has already broken down from its STAGE 3 Distribution phase. As you can see, when these mega stocks break down and unwind, individual investors who have their money managed by so-called professionals who don’t know how to manage risk suffer the most. The drop in META shares has held the tech, social, and even the S&P 500, and Nasdaq from rallying freely to the upside in the past month. When/if AAPL, TSLA, and other heavyweights break down, expect panic on Wall Street. My general rule of thumb is if someone tells you to diversify into a bunch of different assets, stocks, commodities, bonds, crypto, etc… then they don’t know what they are doing. They are a buy-and-hold believer and willing to let their own money or that of their clients experience the severe price swings the market dishes out. – Billionaire investor warren Buffet says, “Diversification makes very little sense for those who know what they are doing.” – Multimillionaire investor Jim Rogers said, “Diversification is something that stockbrokers came up with to protect themselves, so they wouldn’t get sued for making bad investment choices for clients, and that you can go broke diversifying.” The Four Stages Of Asset Prices If you think the 2022 pullback has been distressing, you better buckle up because the bear market has not even technically started yet, from my standard. Instead, in early 2023 we should enter a STAGE 4 Decline. This is when people's financial future and retirement lifestyles are created or broken, depending on how it's managed. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the market will fall in 2023. I’m letting you know it's very possible, and you best have a plan in place. On the other hand, if the markets have some miraculous recovery and start a new bull market, well, you better have a plan for that also. Either way, you need a plan, and if you are a technical trader who follows price and manages positions, it doesn't matter what the market does; we are set either way. S&P 500 Bear Market Expectations 2023 The S&P 500 chart shows the extreme low that we could possibly reach if the economy and stock market fully unwind. Bonds would sell off as well until the Fed decides to step in and starts lowering the rates to try and save investors, but there will be a delay, and bonds will likely fall sharply before we see that take effect. CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:In short, without going off too much on a rant, you can read the three lies we are told by financial professionals that really IRK me. Because of these lies, individual investors must work harder, work longer and experience painful financial outcomes. What you may not know is that what you went through in 2008, the 2020 crash, and this year's correction could have been completely avoided. If you followed a NO BS investing method that tracks price using technical analysis, is simple to follow, and is uber-conservative, then your account would be sitting at a new all-time high watermark as of this week. The financial industry tells us to do all the wrong things, and almost everyone falls for the BS; it's so frustrating to watch! LIE #1: Diversify, Diversify, Diversify LIE #2: Bonds Are A Safe Investment And Should Represent A Large Portion Of An Investors Portfolio LIE #3: Speak With An investment Broker Or Advisor Before Placing Any Trade To Be Sure It Is Suitable For Your Personal Circumstances.  It's total baloney because almost everyone gets the same generic advice, buy-and-hold stocks and bonds, don't give up on it, ride out the rollercoaster, and you will be fine, trust me… Who came up with that strategy? Sure, my 10-year-old son could buy some stocks and bonds once, let it ride for 20-30 years, and be ok. He has time and not that much money, but the big question is at what age does the stock and bond, buy-and-hope strategy become a harmful and risky investment strategy? 50-ish years of age is my thinking. Knowing bear markets can take 3-12 years to recover from, someone who is 50+, planning to retire soon, or is already retired, doesn't have 10+ years to keep working and saving to avoid withdrawing funds from their retirement account. Also, the fact that they have the most wealth ever in their lifetime, they should be concerned about holding through future bear markets.  Don't be fooled. Just because everyone else has been brainwashed to buy-and-hold, aka buy-and-hope, and suffers stock market selloffs does not mean you should…  It's like the average investor has Stockholm syndrome. They have all been beaten up by the markets over and over again. They think that's how it should be. And in some cases are paying someone to take their money, plop it into the market, and do nothing with it for 10 - 40 years. They pay a % of their life savings each year to someone who has no risk and does not need to do too much of anything, while the investor suffers massive multi-year drawdowns, experiences high levels of stress, and sometimes big losses. The typical investing experience most people endure is NOT how it should be. There is a better way, and I can show you. My passion is trading and investing, having been at it for over 25 years. My goal is to help as many investors as possible to preserve their capital during difficult times and also be able to grow their wealth by trading only the most liquid ETFs. My investing strategy signals allow individuals to only hold assets that are rising in value.

US stocks spent most of yesterday’s session hesitating between slight gains and slight losses, then the release of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes helped the bulls take the upper hand, as the minutes confirmed that a ‘substantial majority’ of Fed members thought it was a good idea to slow down the pace of the rate hikes. Stocks The S&P500 gained around 0.60% while Nasdaq jumped around 1%. The US 10-year yield eased, as the US dollar sold off quite aggressively across the board. Economy We saw a decent price action yesterday was oil, and that was well before the Fed minutes. The barrel of American crude dropped up to 5% yesterday on news that the Europeans would set the price cap for Russian oil to around $65 to $70 per barrel, levels at which Russian oil is already exchanged. Tesla and Morgan Stanley On individual stocks, Tesla was one of the biggest gainers of yesterday’s session as Citi and Morgan Stanley revised their views higher, but that rally was maybe… exaggerated. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:21 Fed minutes send stocks higher, USD lower 4:11 Crude oil tanks on EU’s new Russian oil price cap 5:55 Foxconn living a nightmare in China, but Apple holds on 6:32 Tesla rallies on Citi, Morgan Stanley upgrades Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #FOMC #minutes #USD #crudeoil #EU #Russia #price #cap #EUR #GBP #ECB #minutes #Thanksgiving #holiday #Tesla #rally #Apple #Foxconn #China #Covid #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

There are no statistical releases scheduled for Friday. In this case, the session will be shortened and will end at 21:00 GMT+2. In this regard, trading activity is likely to be lower than usual on the holiday-thinned market. On Thursday, the exchanges did not work because of the public holiday, Thanksgiving Day. Meanwhile, a number of important indicators will be published in the near future, including revised data on US GDP for the third quarter as well as data on the labor market for November. In addition, the country begins the season of active shopping before the holidays. Dow Jones Industrial Average by 18:02 GMT+2 increased by 0.4% and reached 34,333.97 points. Among the components of the index, the top gainers were Home Depot Inc, up 1.8%, UnitedHealth Group up 1.4% and 3M Co. - by 1.2%. The value of the Standard & Poor's 500 by this time increased by 0.06% - up to 4029.69 points. At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 0.39% since the market opened and amounted to 11,241.63 points. Stock quotes for retailers Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. decrease respectively by 0.2% and 0.8% at the beginning of trading. Amazon.com Inc. price fell 1.1% on reports that employees at the online retailer's warehouses around the world, including the US, Germany and France, are planning protests on Friday demanding higher wages. Shares of Ford Motor dropped 0.3% on news that the company is recalling more than 634,000 SUVs worldwide due to malfunctions. Tesla's value is 1.2% down. The company announced that it is recalling about 80,000 electric vehicles in China due to problems with software and seat belts. In addition, Apple Inc. papers are trading lower, having decreased - by 1.6%, Nike Inc. - by 0.6%, Intel Corp. - by 0.5%. At the same time, the share price of Chevron Corp. has grown by 0.3%. According to media reports, the United States is preparing to grant this company a license to produce oil in Venezuela. Chevron will regain partial control of oil production in Venezuelan fields, in which the company has retained stakes through joint ventures with state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 03:00 2022-11-29 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302664

Summary:  Dramatic scenes of widespread protests in China against Covid policies there have pulled sentiment lower, with US yields dipping to new local lows and crude oil prices pushing on cycle lows even after Friday’s drop. The USD has firmed against most currencies, but the Japanese yen is stronger still as the fall in yields and energy prices support the currency. This is a sudden powerful new distraction for markets when this week was supposed to be about incoming US data.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures failed to touch the 200-day moving average in Friday’s trading retreating slightly into the weekend. This morning the index futures are continuing lower bouncing around just above the 4,000 level. The US 10-year yield declining to 3.65% with the 3.5% level being the likely downside level the market is eyeing is naturally offering some tailwind for equities in the short-term. However, the key dynamic to get right now in the medium term is the potential earnings recession caused by margin compression as the economy slows down and wage pressures remain high. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets retreated as investors were wary about the surge in daily new Covid cases across China and the outburst of anti-strict-control protests in several mega cities, including Beijing and Shanghai. The cut in reserve requirement ratio by the central bank on Friday evening did not give the market much of a boost. Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 plunged more than 2% each. The China internet space fell 2%-5%. Macao casino stocks bucked the trend and rallied following the Macao SAR Government’s announcement to renew casino licenses with all incumbent operators. Wynn Macau (01128:xhkg) jumped nearly 16%. The three leading Chinese catering chains listed in Hong Kong gained 4% to 6%. USD and JPY firm overnight as Chinese Covid protests drag on risk sentiment The US dollar was higher overnight against most currencies even as US treasury yields hit new cycle lows as widespread protests in China against the Covid policies there are weighing heavily on risk sentiment. Hardest hit among G10 currencies has been the Aussie, with AUDUSD trading back below 0.6700 after pulling above 0.6780 at one point on Friday. USDCNH jumped above the important 7.200 level. The hit to yields and perhaps lower crude oil prices are driving a strong revival in the Japanese yen, which traded higher even against the US dollar overnight, taking USDJPY back toward the recent lows overnight. This is a sudden new distraction for FX traders, when this week was supposed to be all about the incoming US economic data, including the October PCE inflation data up on Thursday and the November jobs data on Friday. Crude oil plunges as China unrest rattles markets A weak sentiment spread across commodities as markets opened in Asia with crude oil, copper and iron ore all trading sharply lower following a weekend that saw waves of unrest in China, the world's biggest consumer of raw materials. Protest and boiled up frustration against President Xi’s increasingly unpopular anti-virus curbs erupted over the weekend, raising the threat of a government crackdown. While the short-term demand outlook may take a hit and add further downside pressure to prices, the eventual reopening is likely to be supported by massive amounts of stimulus. The market is also watching ongoing EU price cap discussions, next week’s OPEC+ meeting and rollout of an embargo on seaborne Russian crude and Chevron receiving a license to resume oil production in Venezuela. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold trades unchanged with safe haven bids in bonds and the dollar offsetting each other, while silver (XAGUSD), due to its industrial metal link, trades down more than 2% following a weekend of covid restriction protests across China. After finding support in the $1735 area last week, a break above $1765 may signal a return to key resistance at $1788, but lack of ETF buying still makes it hard to confirm a major change in direction. Aside from China, the market will be watching incoming US data for any signs of a slowdown in the pace of future rate hikes (see below) US treasuries find safe haven appeal, driving new local lows in yields. (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) The risk-off mood overnight is driving strong safe haven flows into US treasuries, as the 10-year benchmark traded to new local lows below 3.65%, with little room left to the pivotal 3.50% level. The 2-10 yield slope hit a new cycle extreme of –80 basis points overnight, a deepening indication of an oncoming recession. The 3-month treasury bills vs 10-year treasury notes spread went to minus-64bps, a level usually seen within 12 months preceding the onset of a recession. For a detailed discussion of our take on the outlook of bonds, please refer to this note we published last Friday. This week, interesting to see how the market balances the implications of what is unfolding in China versus incoming data in the US, especially the November jobs report on Friday. What is going on? Protests against Covid lockdowns in several Chinese cities Anger over suspected delays to rescue from a deadly fire burst into anti-lockdown protests in Xinjiang. After a fire at a locked-down apartment killed 10 people, hundreds of angry residents in Urumqi, Xinjiang took to the street to protest against the Covid lockdown imposed more than three months ago. Meanwhile, daily new cases shot up to a record high of 40,052, with Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Shanghai significantly tightening movement restrictions. Video footage and photos on social media showed that protests against Covid restrictions sprang up in several other cities over the weekend, including Wuhan, Nanjing, Beijing, and Shanghai. China’s PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25bps The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reduction of 25bps for all banks except for some small which had already had their RRR cut to 5% earlier. The weighted average of RRR across all banks falls to 7.8% from 8.1% after the latest move. The PBOC projects that the reduction in RRR will make available to banks an additional RMB400 billion. The 25bps cut this time, the same as the cut in April this year, was small by historical standards when 50bp or 100bp cuts seemed to be the norm. It helps improve banks’ funding costs, but it may do little to boost the economy as the demand for loans is subdued. The U.S. bans telecommunications equipment from China’s Huawei, ZTE and more The U.S. Federal Communications Commission said on Friday that the U.S. had decided to ban the import and sale of telecommunication equipment from China’s Huawei Technologies, ZTE, Hytera Communications, and surveillance equipment makers Dahua Technology and Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology. The U.S. regulator said these Chinese telecommunication equipment makers pose “an unacceptable risk” to U.S. communication networks and national security. RBA’s Lowe still sees a strong demand; but retail sales turned negative The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe appeared before the Australian parliament's Senate Economics Legislation Committee and said that demand is still too strong relative to supply. He said he is unsure about labor market, and wage growth is consistent with inflation returning to target. He was worried about housing supply and expects to see rental pressure over the next year. Australia’s October retail sales, however, dipped into negative territory for the first time this year, coming in at -0.2% MoM vs. expectations of +0.5%. Chevron gets US license to pump in Venezuela Chevron had been banned from pumping due to US sanctions against the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. But WSJ reported that on Saturday, the US said it will allow Chevron to resume pumping oil from its Venezuelan oil fields. The shift may open the door to other oil companies that had operated previously in Venezuela, despite the near-term headwinds and the massive investments that may be needed. Bullard and Powell speak – pushback against easing financial conditions? While the economic data continues to slow, and markets continue to cheer on that, it will key for Fed members to bring the focus back to easing of financial conditions and consider what that means for inflation. Chicago Fed national financial conditions index eased further in the week of November 18, bringing financial conditions to their easiest levels since May. Most of the Fed members that have spoken since that soft CPI release for October have pushed back against pivot expectations, but it hasn’t been enough. Further pushback is still needed if the Fed is serious about bringing inflation under control, and only the most hawkish members of the committee Bullard and Powell may be able to deliver that. Both will be on the wires this week. Bullard speaks on Monday while Powell discusses the economic outlook and labor market on Wednesday. Other Fed members like Williams, Bowman, Cook, Logan and Evans will also be on the wires. Commodity companies exposed to China are vulnerable for further pull backs This week focus is on companies exposed to China, given forward earnings are likely to be downgraded following further China lockdowns and protests. Be cautious that investors could be looking to take profits or write options for downside protection in commodity exposed equites. Also note, on Friday fresh data showed that the major iron ore companies, BHP, Rio, Fortescue, are likely to be shipping almost 6% less than last year, in the final quarter of this year, and if lockdowns worsen, iron ore shipments could continue to fall and hurt iron ore majors' forward earnings and shares. On Monday in Asia, the iron ore (SCOA) fell 1.6% dragging down shares of ASX listed BHP, and Rio Tinto, who both lost about 1%+. What are we watching next? Weighing the sudden new intrusion of the Chinese protests story versus incoming US data The recent narrative has been that markets have room to celebrate the downward shift in Fed tightening expectations and hopes that an eventual opening up of China’s economy will help boost global growth. The widespread protests at the weekend have changed the plot, driving new uncertainty on how things will develop and possibly outweighing a considerable portion of the implications of the next important data macro data points out of the US, especially the Friday November jobs report. As well, we’ll have a look at the ISM Manufacturing survey for the month on Thursday. The situation in China aside (which it won’t be), the question for the run-up into the December 14 FOMC meeting and in the month or so beyond is how long the market can continue to celebrate the Fed easing off the accelerator, when the reason it is doing so is that economic slowing and an eventual recession threaten. Normally, a recession is associated with poor market performance as profits fall and credit risks mount. Apple production risk is on the rise. The protests in China and the unrest around Apple’s largest manufacturing hub for its iPhone could lead to a production shortfall of close to 6mn iPhone Pro which was a Morgan Stanley estimate and was published before the intensified issues at the Apple manufacturing site. Earnings to watch 98% of the S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 earnings reducing the earnings release impact from US equities. But European and Chinese companies are still reporting although the volume of earnings releases is also getting lower. Key earnings release to watch today is Pinduoduo which is expected to grow revenue by 44% y/y with EBITDA margin expanding to 21.2% as their online marketing revenue and uptake remain strong despite the slowing Chinese economy. Monday: Pinduoduo, Capitaland, H World Group Tuesday: Li Auto, DiDi Global, Bank of Nova Scotia, Intuit, Workday, Crowdstrike, HP Enterprise, NetApp, Shaw Communication Wednesday: Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada, Salesforce, Synopsys, Snowflake, Splunk, Hormel Foods, KE Holdings Thursday: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Bank of Montreal, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Marvell Technology, Veeva Systems, Ulta Beauty, Zscaler, Dollar General, Kroger Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1400 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1530 – US Nov. Dallas Fed Manufacturing 1700 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 1700 – Us Fed’s Bullard (voter 2022) to speak 2330 – Japan Oct. Jobless Rate/Retail Sales Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-28-2022-28112022

Tesla is cutting production by 20% at its Shanghai factory. The move will mostly involve Model Y production. The production cut is due to a demand shortfall. TSLA stock drops 4.7% on Shanghai news.   Tesla (TSLA) stock gave up 4.7% in Monday's premarket after Bloomberg reported that its Shanghai factory would trim record production by 20% due to sluggish Chinese demand. Shares of the leading electric vehicle maker dropped to $185.75 on the news. At the same time most of the US futures market is down in the premarket. Futures for all three major indices, the Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, are off close to 0.5%. Tesla stock news: Model Y production clipped The news out of Shanghai caught investors off guard, because until now Tesla had been undergoing a global ramp up in production. These included plants in Berlin and Austin, Texas as well. The Shanghai production cut is said to be caused by a reduction in that market's demand. Due to frequent covid-related shutdowns across China this year, the economy there appears to have pulled back quite a bit. Demand has shrunk even while Tesla has been ramping up production there to an all-time high. In November Tesla reported deliveries just under 100,300 vehicles. Cutting back to 80,000 units a month is still quite a substantial figure, and Bloomberg sources said it would be easy to ramp back up once demand returns. Reports say the cut will primarily focus on Model Ys. Earlier news accounts said that Tesla had finally exceeded Chinese demand in November for both Model Ys and Model 3s. Waiting times between customer order and final delivery for both models are said to be way down compared with earlier in the year. Source: CnEVPost Tesla can of course export vehicles produced at the Shanghai plant, and it does do this. In fact, that is normally the course of action. Tesla Shanghai spends the start of each quarter producing vehicles for export and then spend the latter half producing for the domestic market. In October, for instance, 54,504 vehicles were exported, and just 17,200 vehicles were delivered there in China. Tesla should produce more than 1 million vehicles at the Shanghai factory in 2023. In other news the European Union's Trade & Technology Council has vocally implied that it may challenge parts of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) at the World Trade Organization. Members of the EU regard certain features of the IRA as protectionist since only US-based companies can receive the many tax breaks for going green that the legislation allows. A primary target of EU member countries are the EV tax credits. In order for a consumer to be eligible for a $7,500 tax credit on a new EV, the vehicle must be assembled in North America. "There is a risk that the Inflation Reduction Act could lead to unfair competition, could close markets and fragment critical supply chains," said President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. "We must take action to rebalance the playing field... to improve our state aid frameworks. In other words: We need to do our homework in Europe and at the same time work with the US to mitigate competitive disadvantages." Tesla stock forecast With the latest setback, TSLA stock is once again experiencing resistance at the $200 level. Last Thursday Tesla stock nearly cleared $199 before selling off and closing lower. In order to make a run at late October and early November's swing high at $234, bulls first need to reconquer the $200 level, which is suddenly seeming to be a difficult task. Nearby support at $180 and $167.50 should both offer some confidence in the mean time. The 9-day moving average also found a base of support recently at the $180 level before moving higher. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still shows that a rally is on, so it is quite possible that an unknown catalyst (Tesla Semi?) arrives in the headlines later this week and works to rally the troops for another try at $200. TSLA 1-day stock chart

Summary:  Equities falter with Fed gaining power to keep hiking vs RBA nearing the end of its path, coal stock surge. Here is what you need to watch in markets in this six minute video         US equites fell on the back foot on Monday, falling for the third day The pull back in US stocks was largely fuelled by the US economy’s service gauge unexpectedly rising, fuelling speculations that the Fed can keep hiking interest rates and keep policy tight. As such, in a typical risk off fashion, the 10-year bond yield jumped almost 11 bps to 3.59%, which helped push up the US dollar up against board, with the yen sliding 1.8%. Money is essential being taken off the table ahead of Friday’s US producer prices report, which will be one of the final pieces of data  Fed officials see before their December 13 meeting. 95% of the S&P500 stocks closed underwater, with all major sectors all in the red. The S&P500 fell 1.8%, moving further away from its 200-day average; with the technical indicators flagging another potential pull back could occur.  While the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.9%, almost wiping out last week’s rally as tech stocks are the most sensitive to rate hikes as they are deemed expensive, with a PE ratio of over 40 times earnings. As for big sock moves in the US; Tesla tumbled and airlines rallied Tesla shares fell 6.4% on reports its plans to lower production at its Shanghai factory, as China’s demand isn’t meeting expectations. Tesla shares are now down 53% from their high and what’s keeping their shares at this level is that the raw material costs are still high, for example the price of lithium is back at record highs, and the market consensus suggests earnings growth will remain at near the 20% mark. As always, there were pockets of green, United Airlines shares gained 2.6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the airliner on expecting 2023 travel to be a ’goldilocks’ year with earnings to pick up. In commodities moves Oil pulled back 3.8% as the US dollar rallied, gold plunged 1.6% as the USD and bond yield rose, and iron ore (SCOA) fell 1.7% but held onto its fresh highs of $106.50. Australia’s share market rally halts, metal prices head lower, coal stocks surge RBA decision ahead The Australian benchmark index, the ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) today is lower on Tuesday, following global markets; with selling in oil, gas, and gold stocks dragging down the market. As a result the ASX200 stumbled from its seven month high on expectations the Fed might keep rates higher for longer, which is also why interest rate sensitive stocks such as Block (SQ2) are in the loser board, down 5.3%, taking its year to date loss to 51%. While on the upside, coal stocks such as New Hope Corp (NHC) are up 2% with Whitehaven (WHC) up 1.2% supported higher by the coal Newcastle futures price head back toward its record all time high, on expectations coal demand will pick up. The major focus in Australia is on the outcome of the RBA meeting today At 2.30pm Sydney time, Australia’s central bank is expected to hike rates by 0.25% for the third straight month, which will take the cash rate from 2.85% to 3.1%. Focus will be on RBA commentary potentially ending its rate hike cycle, given Australian households have the highest debt to income ratios in the world; with indebted households highly vulnerable of tightening, with loan arrears and insolvencies increasing. Look for colour in the RBA statement that may allude to the RBA pausing rate hikes in early 2023. Lenders in Australia, Commonwealth Bank (CBA), ANZ (ANZ), Westpac (WBC) and National Australia Bank (NAB), as well as Suncorp (SUN) and Bank of Queensland (BOQ) will be on watch as they have been experiencing smaller profits as the property market is at breaking point with mortgage holders under stress. However, note,  insurance companies are continuing to benefit from higher rates. Insurance company QBE Insurance (QBE) is trading up 9.2% this year and is a buy side analyst favorite. For more Australian buy side analyst favouities, click here. If the RBA mentions a potential rate hike pause, you could expect banks to rally as well as REITs. For a list of Australian REITs, refer to Saxo’s Australian REIT stock basket.   For a weekly look at what to watch in markets - tune into our Spotlight.For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Video: Equities falter with Fed gaining power to keep hiking vs RBA nearing the end of its path, coal stock surge | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  Markets were surprised yesterday by the strength of the November US ISM Services survey, which suggests a fresh increase in services activity from the October level as opposed to the deceleration expected. In response, US yields rebounded all along the curve, the US dollar rose sharply, and risk sentiment rolled over again, suddenly threatening key areas in the main US index that were taken out on the way up recently.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures gave up most of their gains from Wednesday last week closing just above the 4,000 key level. The rejection of the move above the 200-day moving average suggests to us that the conviction is low at this stage of the rally and if we see a breakdown below the 4,000 level then the 100-day moving average down at the 3,936 level is the next pivot point to watch. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIZ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong stocks pulled back following overnight weakness in the U.S. market and the uncertainty in the Fed’s ability to slow down in its pace of hiking interest rates after recent data indicating strength in wage inflation and business activities in the U.S. services sector. Hang Seng Index lost 1.3% while the CSI 300 was 0.3% higher. The rapid surge in the Hong Kong dollar money market interest rates recently also weighed on Hong Kong stocks. USD rebounds on hot ISM Services report, wilting risk sentiment The US November ISM Services survey cam in far stronger than expected, inspiring a fresh surge in US treasury yields, if a relatively modest one, and a significant rebound in the US dollar as risk appetite rolled over. The USD reversal is particularly interesting from a technical perspective as it came after support had broken in a few important USD pairs. EURUSD, for example, has been pushed back below 1.0500 this morning after an attempt on 1.0600 yesterday and after clearing the prior cycle high. USDJPY has surged above 137.00 after touching below 134.00. A more comprehensive reversal of the recent USD sell-off, however, would require EURUSD back below 1.0400 and USDJPY back above perhaps 139.00, with the key oncoming event risk next Tuesday’s November US CPI print and the FOMC meeting the following day. Gold (XAUUSD) took a tumble on Monday ...and following the failure to break above $1808, the August high, it reverted lower to a challenge recently established lows in the $1765 area. The turnaround was triggered by unexpectedly strong US services data adding renewed pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. Total holdings in bullion backed ETF’s suffered a large 13.7 tons reduction on Monday, and it highlights golds continued dependence on the dollar and yields to provide support, and once they fail to do so, selling emerges. Focus on Friday’s PPI report and liquidity which is likely to start drying up, thereby raising the risk of volatile price action ahead of year-end. Silver meanwhile tumbled 5.6% on Monday and has now returned to challenge support at $22.25 Crude oil (CLF3 & LCOG3) traded sharply lower on Monday ...after supportive micro developments such as restrictions on Russian sale of oil and China easing Covid restrictions were offset by a broad shift lower in risk sentiment after stronger than expected US data lifted the dollar and bond yields while sending stocks lower. For now, the price action remains stuck in a ten-dollar range with no clear short-term direction emerging. The market is undoubtedly going through a soft patch regarding demand with Saudi Arabia lowering its official January selling prices to Asia while time spreads continues to soften as the spot price falls faster than prices further out the curve. US treasuries rebound on strong US services survey (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) The stronger than expected US November ISM Services survey saw a rebound in US treasury yields all along the curve as the market priced the Fed to edge its policy rate a bit higher next year (peak yield seen hitting 5.00% again) as the 2-year Treasury yield surged over 10 basis points higher and the US 10-year benchmark pulled away from the important 3.50% level, although to suggest a reversal of the recent downtrend in yields, the benchmark yield would need to recover above 3.70-75%. What is going on? US November ISM Services surprises on the upside with 56.7 reading This is an important data point as the services sector dominates US economic activity. The market was looking for another deceleration of activity in November (consensus expectations for a 53.5 reading) after 54.4 in October. Among the sub-indices, the Prices Paid index was sticky at the high level of 70.0 vs. 70.7 in October, New Orders were 56.0 vs. 56.5 in October and Employment was 51.5 after 49.1 in October. Australia’s RBA hikes 25 basis points as most anticipated The hike took the cash rate from 2.85% to 3.1%. The AUD was mixed, rebounding sharply from session lows against NZD but that only came after a further slide late yesterday. The RBA maintained cautious guidance, saying the full effects of rates hikes since May have not been felt yet by the economy, while also declaring employment growth had slowed. As such the RBA said its path to achieving a soft landing is narrow, meaning it might be hard to avoid a recession. This also follows news out of Australia today that its current account fell into a deficit for the first time since 2019. The RBA warned it sees inflation increasing over the months ahead, particularly in wages. It conceded inflation is damaging the economy and is making life more difficult for people. The market only anticipates another 50 basis points of tightening in the coming 12 months from the RBA, as it’s rate peak lags the US Fed’s by nearly 150 basis points. Tesla shares fell 6.4% on reports its plans to lower production at its Shanghai factory ...as China’s demand isn’t meeting expectations. Tesla shares are now down 53% from their high and what’s keeping their shares at this level is that the raw material costs are still high, for example the price of lithium is back at record highs, and the market consensus suggests earnings growth will remain at near the 20% mark. US and Europe considering new tariffs on metal imports from China ...arguing that global overcapacity and carbon-intensive production in China could see the duties assessed on imports of key metals. The story is from Bloomberg, which cited “people familiar” with the situation. What are we watching next? China’s Politburo meeting is a key event to watch Before the Central Economic Work Conference convenes in mid/late December, the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo will meet in early December to discuss economic policies and establish the direction and policy framework for the work conference. Investors will pay close attention to the readout from the Politburo meeting for hints about the macroeconomic policy priorities and how they are balanced with the pandemic control strategy. Expect a modest Q4 contraction for the eurozone Yesterday’s final PMI indicators for November point to a very mild GDP contraction in Q4 in the eurozone (minus 0.1 % or minus 0.2 % in our view). The manufacturing PMI surged marginally to 47.1 from 46.4 in October. The report was rather mixed. The softening of inflationary pressures continues but additional orders are falling once again due to lower client demand at the global level. This was expected. The services PMI was also out in contractionary territory at 48.5 against prior 48.6 in October. This is the exact same number as the flash estimate. This is the lowest level since early 2021. Overall, the services and the manufacturing sectors are more resilient than most expected a few months ago when fears of the energy crisis started to cause panic. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is the homebuilder Toll Brothers which is expected to see revenue growth slow down to 6% y/y in the quarter that in October as the US housing market is drastically slowing down from the interest rate shock in mortgages. While growth is slowing down for Toll Brothers investors will be looking for evidence that margins might even begin expanding as building materials are coming down in price. Today:  MongoDB, AutoZone, Toll Brothers, Ferguson Wednesday: Brown Forman, Campbell Soup, GameStop Thursday: Broadcom, Costco, Lululemon, Chewy Friday: Oracle Corp, Li Auto Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Norway Nov. Region Survey 1330 – US Oct. Trade Balance 1330 – Canada Oct. International Merchandise Trade 1500 – Canada Nov. Ivey PMI 1700 – EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook 2130 – API's Weekly Report on US Oil and Fuel Inventories 0030 – Australia Q3 GDP Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-dec-6-2022-06122022

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 8, 2022             Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views       EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)             Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.             Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,235.00 -42.00 (-0.29%) Read the analysis 14,210.00 14,357.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,481.00 7,526.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,928.75 -8.00 (-0.20%) Read the analysis 3,915.00 3,960.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,475.50 -34.00 (-0.30%) Read the analysis 11,430.00 11,600.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,584.00 -41.00 (-0.12%) Read the analysis 33,470.00 33,760.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 72.75 +0.74 (+1.03%) Read the analysis 71.20 73.50     Gold 1,781.83 -4.442 (-0.25%) Read the analysis 1,790.00 1,776.00             MARKET WRAP       Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Wednesday, U.S. stocks still lacked upward momentum. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed flat at 33,597, the S&P 500 declined 7 points (-0.19%) to 3,933, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 52 points (-0.45%) to 11,497.Consumer durables & apparel (+0.86%), pharmaceuticals & biotechnology (+0.85%), and health-care equipment & services (+0.84%) sectors gained the most, while automobiles (-2.67%), consumer services (-1.32%), and technology hardware & equipment (-1.2%) sectors were under pressure.Carvana (CVNA) plunged 42.92% after Bloomberg reported that the used-car platform is consulting lawyers and investment banks about options for managing its debt.Tesla (TSLA) fell 3.21%, TripAdvisor (TRIP) slid 6.41%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) dropped 4.71%.On the other hand, Campbell Soup (CPB) rose 6.02%, as the company posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, and raised its annual outlook.Regarding U.S. economic data, third-quarter unit labor costs rose 2.4% on quarter (vs +3.5% expected), and nonfarm productivity gained 0.8% on quarter (vs +0.3% expected).The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated 11.3 basis points to 3.419%.European stocks closed lower. The DAX 40 fell 0.57%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.41%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.43%.U.S. WTI crude futures declined $1.80 to $72.46. The U.S. Energy Department reported a reduction of 5.19 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles (vs -3.88 million barrels expected).Gold price jumped $14 to $1,786 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar weakened against other major currencies. The dollar index fell to 105.15.USD/CAD was little changed at 1.3655. The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (vs +25 basis points expected) to 4.25%, the highest level in almost 15 years. The central bank signaled that its tightening campaign was near an end.USD/JPY fell 45 pips to 136.55.EUR/USD rose 41 pips to 1.0508. Germany's data showed that industrial production edged down 0.1% on month in October (vs -0.8% expected).GBP/USD climbed 77 pips to 1.2210. In the U.K., the Halifax house price index dropped 2.3% on month in November (vs -0.1% expected).AUD/USD gained 36 pips to 0.6724. USD/CHF lost 11 pips to 0.9409.Bitcoin traded slightly lower to $16,800.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY advanced further to 136.85. Japan's data showed that third-quarter gross domestic product growth was confirmed at -0.8% annualized on quarter (vs -1.0% estimated).AUD/USD traded lower to 0.6715. Australia's data showed that trade surplus declined to 12.22 billion Australian dollars in October with exports falling 1.0% on month (vs +1.0% expected).EUR/USD was little changed at 1.0503, and GBP/USD retreated to 1.2188.Gold price dipped to $1,783 an ounce.Bitcoin held up well at $16,870.Expected TodayIn the U.S., the latest number of initial jobless claims is expected to rise to 240,000.       UK MARKET NEWS       UK: The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors house price balance fell to -25% in November (vs -10% expected).British American Tobacco, a cigarette maker, posted a trading update: "We are confident in delivering our 2022 guidance, demonstrating once again the strength and resilience of our business. (...) Our New Category business continues to drive strong volume, revenue and market share growth and has become a significant contributor to group performance. (...) We expect growing contribution across all New Categories, and all Regions in 2022. We are confident in delivering our targets of 5 billion pounds revenue, and profitability by 2025."DS Smith, a packaging services provider, reported interim results: "For the six month period, revenue grew to 4,299 million pounds, up 26% on a constant currency basis and 28% on a reported basis (...) Adjusted basic earnings grew by 49% on a constant currency basis to 20.9 pence per share, reflecting the growth in profitability. (...) we are announcing an interim dividend for this year of 6.0 pence per share, an increase of 25%."Technology, chemicals and financial services shares fell most in London on Tuesday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Barclays (-0.83% to 157.44p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.From a technical point of view, BP (-2.24% to 464p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.       ECONOMIC CALENDAR       Time Event Forecast Importance   08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/03) 240k MEDIUM     08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov/26) 1.62M LOW     08:30 Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Dec/03) 231k LOW     10:30 EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (Dec/02) -31Bcf LOW     11:30 8-Week Bill Auction   LOW     11:30 4-Week Bill Auction   LOW                     NEWS SENTIMENT       Standard Chartered PLC STAN : LSE 584.20 GBp -1.78% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade             Siemens AG SIE : XETRA 132.90 EUR -0.57% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade             Knorr-Bremse AG KBX : XETRA 52.24 EUR -5.26% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade             Glencore PLC GLEN : LSE 540.30 GBp -2.95% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade             Bayer AG BAYN : XETRA 52.80 EUR -4.05% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade     TECHNICAL VIEWS       EUR/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.0485.   Pivot: 1.0485   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0485 with targets at 1.0530 & 1.0550 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0485 look for further downside with 1.0465 & 1.0440 as targets.   Comment: A support base at 1.0485 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.     Trade           Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: key resistance at 3949.00.   Pivot: 3949.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3949.00 with targets at 3908.00 & 3896.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3949.00 look for further upside with 3960.00 & 3969.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.     Trade           Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: key resistance at 78.80.   Pivot: 78.80   Our preference: Short positions below 78.80 with targets at 76.30 & 75.10 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 78.80 look for further upside with 80.30 & 81.30 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.     Trade

Summary:  Today, we look at the overall sense that market players don't want to take any strong new bets until we get to the other side of Dec 31. We also look US treasury yields dropping through pivotal levels at the longer end of the curve and the remarkable fact that the curve remains near its most inverted even as the 2-year yield is at local range lows. The market is increasingly convinced that Fed easing is set to start within 12 months after a bit more hiking next week and early next year. We also look at crude oil dynamics, natural gas in Europe, Swedish housing prices, weak outlook from US banks, the latest woes for Tesla, the Bank of Canada keeping CAD the weakest of G10 currencies, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Will market be allowed to go into hibernation until 2023? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  In today’s five minute video we bring you up to speed with what traders and investors in Australia at Saxo, have been doing this week. It reflects the two major drives of markets, higher for longer interest rates in US and a potential recession. On the other side, some clients are somewhat excited about China’s major cities easing restrictions, and dangling the carrot to ease further. We explore if upside is sustainable in metals, such as iron ore and why buying is picking up in the US dollar, with the USD index seeing its strongest gain in 12 weeks.   Investors and traders are bunkering into the theme of higher for longer interest rates in the US, and a potential recession This is the major theme that's driving markets and pushed global equities lowers this week. So we’ve been seeing profit taking, a little more selling and options put on tech companies, including Tesla, Google, and Apple  - more so than the last few weeks. And buying of the US dollar picked up again; with the DXY set for its biggest gain in 12 weeks, ahead of US CPI next week and the final Fed decision for 2022. There is pent up investor demand for investing in China’s reopening theme This is the second major driver of markets of late. It comes as five major cities have eased restrictions and dangled the carrot to ease further. As well as potentially scrapping mask wearing.  Commodities buying picked up on the platform at Saxo, given there are hopes for China to fast track economic growth next year. Buying in lithium stocks;  Pilbara Minerals, Allkem picked up  Buying in Fortescue Metals also picked up. This is because the commodity Fortescue makes 90% of its revenue from, iron ore (SCOA) the key steel making ingredient, rose 3.6% this week, taking its gain from the October low to 44%, with the price of the iron ore hitting $110.20, a new four month high. The price of iron ore has been rallying as China is easing restrictions and today the market heard whispers that Chinese property developers will get more support, which would support demand for iron ore rising. However it looks like buying volume in iron ore slowed for now. So perhaps until we see more concrete announcements or further easing of restrictions, iron ore and iron ore miners could maybe see a bit of profit or buying fade next week, especially as iron ore stocks were this weeks best performers. Once we get more hopes, the iron ore price might be supported higher along with upside in iron ore majors shares; Fortescue Metals, Champion Iron, BHP and Rio. Also, next week, iron ore majors may see share price upgrades from buy and sell side brokers. Buying in China Tech picked up;  given there are favourable interest rates in China, pent up demand, and restriction are easing. As such buying in Alibaba picked up.  In energy markets, buying in coal stocks picked up; with Whitehaven Coal buy orders rising.  And lastly, buying in airlines shares picked up as well. Especially in those air companies that travel in and out of Hong Kong, Such as Cathay Pacific. Qantas also saw increased buys.     For a weekly look at what to watch in markets - tune into our Spotlight.For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Video: What traders and investors have been buying amid recession concerns versus China easing restrictions | Saxo Group (home.saxo)      

This year is exceptional in terms of many events, in particular events on the financial markets. ARKK is not doing too well, and Microsoft will take 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange. Read next: Euro Holds Above $1.05, USD/JPY Pair Rose Above 136| FXMAG.COM The Losses Investors have bought up growth stocks and other speculative assets en masse this year. In an environment of rising profits where they suddenly have opportunities to earn returns with little risk, many lose their appetite for cash-losing companies that promise a chance of return in the future. Shares in the fund, a pandemic-era favourite, made up mostly of underperforming, growth-minded tech companies, have fallen 63% this year. Wood's flagship fund is near a five-year low. The three largest holdings in the fund - known by the ticker symbol ARKK - are Zoom Video Communications Inc., Tesla Inc. and Exact Sciences Corp. , companies that Mrs. Wood believes have the potential to change the world. At the beginning of the year, Cathie Wood said that venture stocks in exchange-traded funds sold by ARK Investment Management LLC are so cheap that they will inevitably go up. A surprising number of investors wanted to give it a try. Some $16 billion flowed into ARK Innovation from the second quarter of 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic took hold, through the first quarter of 2021, when the fund’s assets peaked at $28 billion. Investors heeding a “buy the dip” rallying cry poured money into the fund in each of the first five months of the year—a net $1.89 billion—as markets tumbled. Shares of Zoom and Tesla have lost about half their value this year, while Exact Sciences, an unprofitable supplier of cancer screening and diagnostic tools, is down 42%. While many on Wall Street are curbing risks and preparing for a recession, Ms. Wood has increased her risk in recent weeks by buying more shares in cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc. and a bitcoin futures ETF. According to FactSet, ARKK added 931,000 Coinbase shares worth about $43 million in November. ARKK is the second-largest holder of Coinbase shares, which are down 83% since the beginning of the year. Similar bets yielded huge gains in a low-interest-rate environment in 2020 and 2021. ARKK's stock more than doubled in 2020 before concerns about inflation — and the prospect of higher rates — stalled its gains. Currently, ARKK is at its lowest levels, approaching pre-2018 levels. The lowest levels of the year may increase investors' concerns. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Microsoft Corp and LSEG Microsoft Corp. will take a 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange’s corporate parent. The agreement between the London Stock Exchange Group and Microsoft Corp connects one of the largest American technology companies with the largest market exchange in Europe. LSEG has tied its future to data sales, a way to diversify away from the low-margin stock market business. In 2021, it completed the purchase of the financial, information and terminal company Refinitiv Holdings Ltd. from the Blackstone Inc. consortium. and Thomson Reuters Corp. Microsoft takes the unusual step of buying an ownership stake in a customer by acquiring LSEG's stake from the Blackstone-Reuters consortium. Microsoft did not disclose how much it will pay for the shares. LSEG shares were up 1.8% Monday afternoon in London. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

Yesterday’s inflation report in the US filled investors with joy and further hope that inflation in the US may have peaked this summer and we will be heading lower from here, and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a softer monetary policy stance and hike, yes, by 50bp today, but certainly not more than another 25bp in February. Powell  But Powell could also stress the fact that inflation remains significantly high compared with the 2% policy target, and that relaxing the tightening measures prematurely is not a good idea. US Dollar In the FX, the US dollar index fell following the softer-than-expected CPI print, and hit a fresh low since summer. Markets The softer US dollar, and stronger euro sent the European indices to fresh highs since summer. The DAX flirted with the June peak, and the Eurostoxx50 traded at the highest level since FebruaryCrude oil rallied more than 2.50% yesterday, on hope that the Fed could slow down the rate hikes, and not push the US into a deep recession to fight inflation. The FTX drama In cryptocurrencies, the FTX drama continues with the arrestation of Sam Bankman-Fried in the Bahamas, news that investors withdrew $3.7 billion worth of funds from Binance since last week, and that Binance reportedly stopped the stablecoin USDC withdrawals. Bitcoin But Bitcoin couldn’t care less. The price of a coin advanced more than 3% yesterday, showing that the FTX drama has been priced in and out and further drama should not hit the coin harder. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 How does the Fed will about falling US inflation? 5:24 US dollar falls, majors & global equities rally 6:45 Crude oil tests short-term resistance 7:35 Bitcoin up despite unideal sector news 8:33 Tesla trades at cheapest ever PE Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #FOMC #Fed #rate #decision #dotplot #USD #CPI #inflation #data #EUR #GBP #JPY #XAU #crudeoil #DAX #EU50 #Bitcoin #SamBankmanFried #FTX #Binance #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Summary:  Today we look at yesterday's reaction to the softer than expected US November CPI data, with equity market upside fading quickly even as the reaction in US yields and the US dollar was stickier. We also discuss today's upcoming FOMC meeting, with the Fed facing a tough task if it wants to push back against easing market conditions and policy expectations today. We also look at Tesla posting new cycle lows and concerns for the stock and EV market, Apple, Inditex, crude oil, precious metals, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: FOMC will have a hard time moving the needle today | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 15, 2022                 Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,399.00 -65.00 (-0.45%) Read the analysis 14,350.00 14,505.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,461.00 7,509.00     S&P 500 (CME) 4,030.50 -0.25 (-0.01%) Read the analysis 4,070.00 3,997.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,854.50 -14.50 (-0.12%) Read the analysis 12,060.00 11,730.00     Dow Jones (CME) 34,258.00 +19.00 (+0.06%) Read the analysis 34,620.00 33,960.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 76.63 -0.65 (-0.84%) Read the analysis 77.80 75.70     Gold 1,795.33 -11.995 (-0.66%) Read the analysis 1,785.00 1,805.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Wednesday, U.S. stocks posted an intraday reversal to the downside after investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish post-rate-hike comments. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 142 points lower (-0.42%) to 33,966, the S&P 500 fell 24 points (-0.61%) to 3,995, and the Nasdaq 100 slid 93 points (-0.79%) to 11,740.As widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25-4.50%. The Fed now projects the key rate to reach 5.10% by the end of 2023.And Jerome Powell pointed out the central bank will not cut interest rates until its inflation target of 2% is reached.The U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield dropped 2.9 basis points to 3.472%.Automobiles (-2.14%), diversified financials (-1.56%), and semiconductors (-1.49%) sectors lost the most.Tesla (TSLA) sank a further 2.58% after Goldman Sachs lowered its price target on the stock.Marriott International (MAR) fell 2.32% as the hotel operator was downgraded to "neutral" at Citi.On the other hand, Delta Air Lines (DAL) rose 2.79% as the airline gave a better-than-expected full-year guidance on adjusted earnings per share.Pfizer (PFE) gained 2.66% on reports that the drugmaker has been allowed to import and distribute antiviral drug Paxlovid in China.European stocks also closed lower. The DAX 40 fell 0.26%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.21%, and the FTSE 100 dipped 0.09%.U.S. WTI crude futures added $2.00 to $77.38 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Department reported an addition of 10.23 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles, in contrast to a reduction of 3.59 million barrels expected.Gold price declined $3 to $1,807 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar softened against other major currencies. The dollar index declined to 103.62.EUR/USD rose 52 pips to 1.0685. Data showed that the Eurozone's industrial production declined 2.0% on month in October (vs -1.2% expected).GBP/USD gained 64 pips to 1.2430. In the U.K., the inflation rate slowed to 10.7% on year in November (vs +11.0% expected).USD/JPY dropped 16 pips to 135.43.AUD/USD added 9 pips to 0.6864. This morning, Australia's data showed that the jobless rate remained stable at 3.4% in November with employment rising by 64,000 (vs +25,000 expected).USD/CHF declined 44 pips to 0.9240, and USD/CAD was little changed at 1.3544.Bitcoin once broke above $18,000 before retreating to $17,800 after the 50-basis-point rate hike was confirmed.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, Japan's data showed that trade deficit narrowed to 2.03 trillion yen in November (vs 1.80 trillion yen expected) with exports increasing 20.0% on year (vs +24.0% expected).USD/JPY was stable at 135.53.Australia's data showed that the jobless rate remained stable at 3.4% in November with employment rising by 64,000 (vs +25,000 expected).AUD/USD declined to 0.6839.EUR/USD retreated to 1.0655, and GBP/USD traded lower to 1.2392.Gold price lost again the handle of $1,800 an ounce.Bitcoin declined further to $17,720.Expected TodayIn the U.K., the Bank of England is expected to raise its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.50%.The European Central Bank is expected to increase its key interest rates by 50 basis points to 2.0-2.5%.In the U.S., retail sales are expected to grow 0.2% on month in November. The latest number of initial jobless claims is expected at 235,000.The New York State manufacturing index is expected to fall to 1.0 in December, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to improve to -7.0 in December.           UK MARKET NEWS           AstraZeneca, a global biopharmaceutical company, said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will extend the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date by three months to provide further time for a full review of the supplementary new drug application (sNDA) for Lynparza (olaparib) in combination with abiraterone and prednisone or prednisolone for the treatment of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC).Auto & Parts, chemicals and insurance shares gained most in London on Tuesday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, BAE Systems (+1.61% to 834.2p), Compass Group (+1.37% to 1925p), Croda International (+0.29% to 7016p) crossed above their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   07:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.5% HIGH     07:00 MPC Meeting Minutes   MEDIUM     07:00 BoE MPC Vote Cut 0/9 MEDIUM     07:00 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 0/9 MEDIUM     07:00 BoE MPC Vote Hike 9/9 MEDIUM     08:30 Retail Sales MoM (Nov) 0.2% HIGH     08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/10) 235k MEDIUM     08:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec) 1 MEDIUM     08:30 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Nov) 0.5% MEDIUM     08:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) -7 MEDIUM     09:15 Industrial Production YoY (Nov) 2.7% MEDIUM     09:15 Industrial Production MoM (Nov) -0.2% MEDIUM     10:00 Business Inventories MoM (Oct) 0.3% MEDIUM     16:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows (Oct)   MEDIUM     19:01 GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec) -43 HIGH                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           HSBC Holdings PLC HSBA : LSE 497.70 GBp +0.48% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Uniper SE UN01 : XETRA 3.044 EUR -7.25% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   RWE AG RWE : XETRA 42.73 EUR +2.08% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Rio Tinto PLC RIO : LSE 5,622.00 GBp -2.73% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Deliveroo PLC ROO : LSE 86.90 GBp -4.06% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Barclays PLC BARC : LSE 160.26 GBp +2.21% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.   Pivot: 1.0635   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0635 with targets at 1.0700 & 1.0725 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0635 look for further downside with 1.0610 & 1.0585 as targets.   Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: under pressure.   Pivot: 3984.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3984.00 with targets at 3944.00 & 3921.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3984.00 look for further upside with 3995.00 & 4017.00 as targets.   Comment: As long as the resistance at 3984.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 3944.00 remains high.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: bullish bias above 81.20.   Pivot: 81.20   Our preference: Long positions above 81.20 with targets at 83.60 & 85.20 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 81.20 look for further downside with 80.10 & 78.60 as targets.   Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.        

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc continues to cut costs and expects restructuring costs to increase by up to $1 billion than anticipated less than two months ago. Amazon sued for breach of contract. Once again, Elon Musk decided to sell Tesla shares, leaving himself 13.4%. Amazon is sued The Vietnamese warehouse equipment maker says in a lawsuit filed in New York on Tuesday that it has dramatically expanded its operations in eight years to accommodate Amazon's rapid growth. This included setting up more manufacturing facilities, more than doubling the workforce, and cutting ties with other large retail clients such as IKEA, Columbia Sportswear Co. and Decathlon S.A. Gilimex said Amazon scaled up its purchases in 2020 and 2021, when e-commerce sales were booming as the pandemic shifted consumer behavior, then sharply pulled back orders this year as online sales growth slowed. Gilimex said the partnership was built on "trust" and Gilimex relied on the accuracy of Amazon's forecasts to make appropriate investments to meet demand, including purchasing materials and arranging capacity and manpower to meet the US company's needs. The lawsuit, which alleges breach of contract, breach of fiduciary duty, unfair trade practices and negligent misrepresentation, was filed in the New York State Supreme Court. The lawsuit said the change resulted in "immediate and virtually complete destruction of Gilimex's business." Gilimex seeks approximately $280 million in damages to recover costs. Read next: From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level | FXMAG.COM Warner Bros. Discovery Inc and cost problems Warner Bros. Discovery Inc, whose holding companies include film and television studios, CNN and HBO, and Discovery channels such as Food Network and HGTV, said in a statement Wednesday that it expects to incur pre-tax restructuring costs of as much as $5.3 billion by 2024. In October, it said it anticipated as much as $4.3 billion in restructuring fees. Since the conclusion of the Discovery and WarnerMedia merger earlier this year, there have been significant layoffs, including executives at the major units. Many high-profile projects and programs have also been killed or cancelled. Warner Bros. Discovery said it still expects restructuring initiatives to be completed by the end of 2024. Last month, the company raised its cost synergy target to $3.5 billion from $3 billion. It also has debt of about $50 billion. The company's shares fell 1.1% in Wednesday's after-hours trading. Musk holds 13.4% of Tesla shares Musk sold nearly 22 million Tesla shares in the three days ending December 14. This week's sale means Tesla's CEO has sold more than $39 billion worth of Tesla shares since the company's shares peaked in November 2021. Tesla, still the world's most valued carmaker by value. Tesla's CEO previously sold the company's shares in April, August and November this year, linking the last two batches of sales to Twitter. This month's sale leaves Musk with about 13.4% of Tesla, meaning he remains by far the company's largest shareholder. Still, the sale of shares could weaken his control over Tesla. It wasn't clear what prompted Musk to sell the extra Tesla shares. Mr Musk's focus on Twitter has irked some Tesla investors as the company tracks its worst annual stock price performance ever. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM Tesla shares closed up 2.58% on Wednesday at $156.80, their lowest level in more than two years. The company's stock price drop of around 55% in 2022 overshadowed that of the Nasdaq Composite, which has fallen around 29% since the beginning of the year. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has reportedly sold $3.6 billion worth of TSLA stock. Elon Musk's selling caused Tesla stock to decline in price this week in contrast to the NASDAQ. TSLA shares have fallen 11% in the past five sessions against the NASDAQ's 2% gain. Tesla stock is near support at $154 but could drop to $128.50. Tesla (TSLA) continues its December slide on Thursday a day after it was revealed that CEO Elon Musk has sold out $3.6 billion worth of shares. The news makes the past week's TSLA price action more sensible as observant traders wondered aloud why Tesla kept selling off despite the NASDAQ climbing higher. Tesla stock is down around 2% in Thursday's premarket, even reaching below long-term support at $154. Tesla stock news: Elon Musk sells 20 million shares In the three sessions between Monday, December 12, and Wednesday, December 14, Elon Musk sold about 20.2 million shares of Tesla stock. These sales ranged from a high of $176.70 to a low of $156.14. Musk began the week with 443.8 million shares of TSLA and ended Wednesday with 423.6 million shares. Altogether these sales brought in about $3.58 billion in cash. Elon Musk has sold a total of about $40 billion worth of Tesla stock in the last year, most of which went to fund his takeover of Twitter. This selling has resulted in TSLA stock losing 11% over the past five sessions compared with a 2% gain for the NASDAQ. Tesla has lost 17% over the past month and now 61% for the full year. "It doesn't put a lot of confidence in the business, or speak volumes for where his attention is at," wrote Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets. This stock performance is beginning to leave bulls with anxiety. Tesla stock has been suffering from Musk's focus on Twitter for months now. Since fully taking over the social media platform six weeks ago, Musk's constant flurry of shockingly partisan political tweets have made some analysts lose faith in his leadership abilities. Recently, he tweeted: "My pronouns are prosecuted/Fauci", in reference to the main covid advisor during the Trump and Biden administrations. Noted long-time Tesla bull Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities was quite blunt on the matter of Musk's activity: "The Twitter nightmare continues as Musk uses Tesla as his own ATM machine to keep funding the red ink at Twitter[,] which gets worse by the day as more advertisers flee the platform with controversy increasing driven by Musk." RBC Capital Markets cut its price target early Thursday from $325 to $225, saying that the market was slowly getting its head around the reduction in gross profit margins. Morgan Stanely is also rather melancholy about the electric vehicle industry of late. The storied investment bank cut its global EV share estimate to 11.8% for 2023 compared to 10.1% in 2022. Its estimates going out to 2050 were trimmed as well. The bank noted that Lucid Group (LCID) has been receiving lower reservations and cancellations and that Rivian Automotive (RIVN) has halted reporting reservations entirely. "We are preparing for a challenging FY23 outlook for auto earnings on demand decline (higher rates), deflation (lower price/mix) and unfavorable changes in the supply/demand balance for EVs," wrote Morgan Stanely analyst Adam Jonas in a note to clients earlier this week. Tesla stock forecast: If $154 cannot hold, then $128.50 is next Tesla stock fell below the $154 support level in Thursday's premarket, which is probably a bad omen for bulls. The $154 level served as resistance back during August and October 2020, and the hope was that it would reemerge as support. The next available historical support price available to cushion a further fall is all the way down at $128.50. This one comes from the level that saw support during that same period in the second half of 2020. Additionally, a year-old descending trendline that goes back to December 2021 leads the TSLA share price toward this $128.50 level. TSLA 1-week stock chart

The electric vehicle market has a bright future, but is currently struggling with the lack of chip supplies and difficulties in the investment market. Many companies use partnerships with financial institutions, and some such as Knorr-Bremse and Deutsche Bank develop their partnerships. In this article: Arizona and EV market Investments in EV start-ups are not so attractive anymore Preparing for the new tax year Knorr-Bremse and its Partnership With Deutsche Bank Electric Vehicles And Self-Driving Technology Have The Potential To Grow In Arizona Problems in the delivery of chips from China have become one of the problems in the United States. Companies producing electric cars are looking for solutions. Arizona quickly became the epicenter of electric vehicles and self-driving technology and is now the site of three major new semiconductor plants. The Arizona Commerce Authority says it helped 634 companies relocate or expand in Arizona between 2015 and 2020. Thus, many new residents who are qualified in this field have flowed into this region. Arizona has rapidly become an epicenter for EV and self-driving tech — and now it's the site of 3 big new semiconductor factories. Watch the full video here: https://t.co/N6fsv8kiZt pic.twitter.com/UublHC3Wnz — CNBC (@CNBC) December 16, 2022 Read next: Adobe Earnings For The Fiscal Fourth Quarter Was Strong, Changes In Loyalty Programs Of American Airlines| FXMAG.COM Investments in EV start-ups are not so attractive anymore The automotive industry is investing over $1 trillion in the revolutionary transition from combustion engines to software-controlled electric vehicles. From Detroit to Shanghai, automakers and government policy makers have embraced the promise that electric vehicles will deliver cleaner, safer transportation. Industry executives and forecasters disagree on how quickly electric vehicles could take over half of the global vehicle market, let alone the entirety. Industry officials and analysts said that among the barriers to EV adoption were the lack of public fast-charging infrastructure and the rising cost of EV batteries. Difficulties arose not only in the production area. Investors who eagerly watched and invested in Tesla Inc and competing electric vehicle start-ups that hoped to emulate Tesla's success. This year has shown that nothing is complete and economic situations also hit the giants. With interest rates rising and financial markets swirling, stakes in many EV startups have declined. WATCH: The past year was sobering for investors who poured money into Tesla and rival electric vehicle startups that hoped to emulate the success of Elon Musk's company https://t.co/1ZAIf7TV8i $TSLA pic.twitter.com/gmlWlMIoEJ — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) December 16, 2022 Preparing for the new tax year With the end of the year, financial institutions in their tweets and articles will draw attention to what you need to prepare from the financial side. Before the new year, it's worth looking back at your expenses, general cash flow to be able to prepare better for the new year. Financial security is important, but you should also remember about taxes. There is no doubt that taxes are a nightmare for everyone, whether for an individual taxpayer or for entrepreneurs. There may be changes in tax regulations that are worth paying attention to. Preparing for the new tax year can help you not to lose too much on taxes. An important part of this process is knowing the likely tax bracket you'll fall into, the limits that may affect you, and the potential deductions available. With the year rapidly coming to a close, it might pay to prepare in advance for Tax Day. Here are 8 things to keep in mind as you prepare to file your 2022 taxes. https://t.co/vTPSg1p4cH — Charles Schwab Corp (@CharlesSchwab) December 15, 2022 Knorr-Bremse and its partnership With Deutsche Bank Knorr-Bremse strengthens its ESG measures in partnership with Deutsche Bank and expands its supply chain finance program to include sustainability aspects. For 15 years, Knorr-Bremse suppliers have been using the Supply Chain Finance program run by Deutsche Bank. For example, they get their money faster because the bank pre-finances at attractive interest rates until Knorr-Bremse pays the invoice. Financing costs for suppliers are based on the creditworthiness of Knorr-Bremse, which usually reduces financing costs for suppliers. Deutsche Bank supports @KnorrBremseAG in strengthening its ESG measures and expanding its supply chain finance programme to include sustainability aspects. Suppliers with good sustainability performance benefit from more attractive financing terms. https://t.co/pEvfnF0Zk0 — Deutsche Bank (@DeutscheBank) December 16, 2022

With the end of the year, I look at what may happen in 2023. JP Morgan looks at finance from the economic side and what affects it, and Jim Cramer traditionally focuses on the stock market. In this article: Outlook Of 2023 by JP Morgan Jim Cramer’s look at stock market Elon Musk And Twitter Outlook 2023 Most of the things that could go wrong for investors happened in 2022, driven by high inflation, an aggressive cycle of interest rate hikes around the world, and the war in Ukraine. Remarkably, both stocks and bonds suffered heavy losses in 2022 – one of the worst years in the history of a balanced portfolio. Lower stock valuations and higher bond yields offer investors the most attractive entry point into a traditional portfolio in more than a decade. All this will be reflected in the new year. JP Morgan takes into account key economic and market factors in this year's forecast - the consequences of monetary policy tightening, the weakening of the global economy, market prices and valuation resets Higher rates. Weaker growth. Valuation resets. Explore what these key economic and market forces may mean for investors. — J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan) December 16, 2022 Read next: Rise Of The Attractiveness Of Living In Cities – Urbanization| FXMAG.COM Jim Cramer’s look at stock market Jim Cramer looks at market action, this time specifically industrial stocks. The specialist looks at the situations of individual companies and assesses their attractiveness. His tips can be helpful for investors, especially those who are starting their adventure with this market. Jim Cramer on Friday identified three industrial stocks that he believes are worth owning next year “CAT has much more exposure to infrastructure, and I think they’ve got a boost from the oil and gas industry coming,” Cramer said. According to a specialist, companies such as Caterpillar, Illinois Tool Works and rail operator CSX are noteworthy. Here is why @JimCramer sees more upside ahead for Caterpillar in 2023. https://t.co/CmEl3RctII — Mad Money On CNBC (@MadMoneyOnCNBC) December 17, 2022 Elon Musk And Twitter For the past two months, Elon Musk's attention has been focused on the development of Twitter, which he purchased in late October. Since then, his activities on this social networking site have been watched with special attention. Not only on Twitter, but also after it. One such action was blocking the accounts of journalists. The suspensions stemmed from disagreements over a Twitter account called ElonJet that tracked Musk's private jet using publicly available information. On Wednesday, Twitter suspended the account and others that tracked private jets, despite Musk's earlier tweet saying he would not suspend ElonJet in the name of free speech. Soon after, Twitter changed its privacy policy to prohibit the sharing of "live location information." Then on Thursday night, several journalists, including those from the New York Times, CNN and the Washington Post, were suspended from Twitter without notice. The episode, which one high-profile security researcher called a "Thursday night massacre," is regarded by critics as new evidence that Musk considers himself a "free speech absolutist," eliminating speech and users he personally dislikes. Now it has been reported that Elon Musk has reinstated the Twitter accounts of several journalists who had been suspended for a day in connection with the controversy over publishing public data about the billionaire's plane. The reinstatement came after unprecedented suspensions prompted heavy criticism on Friday from government officials, advocacy groups and journalistic organizations in several parts of the world, with some saying the microblogging platform threatened press freedom. Elon Musk reinstated the Twitter accounts of several journalists that were suspended in a controversy over publishing public data about the billionaire' s plane https://t.co/MPaQFmEp3Q pic.twitter.com/V6ipgraOpY — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) December 18, 2022

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 16, 2022                 Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,030.00 +45.00 (+0.32%) Read the analysis 13,925.00 14,125.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,474.00 7,420.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,928.00 +0.75 (+0.02%) Read the analysis 3,900.00 3,956.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,467.25 +10.25 (+0.09%) Read the analysis 11,400.00 11,540.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,449.00 +13.00 (+0.04%) Read the analysis 33,240.00 33,680.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 76.07 -0.04 (-0.05%) Read the analysis 75.40 77.10     Gold 1,779.26 +2.403 (+0.14%) Read the analysis 1,766.00 1,790.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Thursday, U.S. stocks closed sharply lower as lower-than-expected sales data stirred recession fears among investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 764 points (-2.25%) to 33,202, the S&P 500 declined 99 points (-2.49%) to 3,895, and the Nasdaq 100 slid 395 points (-3.37%) to 11,345.U.S. data showed that retail sales declined 0.6% on month in November (vs +0.2% expected). The latest number of initial jobless claims posted at 211,000 (vs 235,000 expected).Also, the New York State manufacturing index sank to -11.2 in December (vs +1.0 expected, +4.5 in November), while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index improved to -13.8 in December (vs -7.0 expected, -19.4 in November).The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased a further 2.9 basis points to 3.448%.Technology hardware & equipment (-4.43%), media (-4.39%), and semiconductors (-3.95%) sectors led the market lower.NetFlix (NFLX) slumped 8.63%, as a media report said the video streaming firm is refunding advertisers after missing views targets.Nvidia (NVDA) declined 4.09% after the semiconductor stock was rated "reduce" at HSBC. AT&T (T) slid 2.28% after the telecom stock was downgraded to "equal-weight" at Morgan Stanley.Novavax (NVAX) plunged 34.3% after the biotech firm announced a capital hike.On the other hand, Tesla (TSLA) edged up 0.55%. Regulatory documents showed that CEO Elon Musk sold 22 million shares in the electric-vehicle maker worth $3.58 billion.Lennar (LEN) rose 3.82% as the largest U.S. homebuilder reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings.European stocks were also heavy. The DAX 40 fell 3.28%, the CAC 40 declined 3.09%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.93%.U.S. WTI crude futures declined $1.00 to $76.26 a barrel.Gold price lost $30 to $1,776 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar rebounded against other major currencies. The dollar index advanced to 104.64.EUR/USD fell 58 pips to 1.0624. As expected, the European Central Bank raise its key interest rates by 50 basis points to 2.0-2.5%. However, the central bank said it would raise interest rates "significantly" further to tame inflation.GBP/USD dropped 250 pips (-2.01%) to 1.2176. As expected, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.50%. The central bank stated that it would "respond forcefully" in case of persistent inflationary pressures.USD/JPY jumped 232 pips (+1.71%) to 137.80.AUD/USD declined 165 pips (-2.40%)to 0.6699.USD/CHF gained 40 pips to 0.9285, and USD/CAD climbed 123 pips to 1.3671.Bitcoin traded lower to $17,400.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, the U.S. dollar softened slightly against other major currencies.USD/JPY declined to 137.31. The Jibun Bank manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 48.8 in December (vs 49.6 expected).AUD/USD rebounded to 0.6717.EUR/USD traded higher to 1.0645, and GBP/USD climbed back to 1.2204.Gold price was up to $1,780 an ounce.Bitcoin held up well at $17,400.Expected TodayIn the U.K., the GfK consumer confidence index posted at -42 in December (vs -43 expected).Also, U.K. retails sales are expected to edge up 0.3% on month in November.December S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers index will be posted for the Eurozone (46.6 expected), Germany (45.9 expected), France (48.6 expected), the U.K. (46.3 expected) and the U.S. (48.2 expected).           UK MARKET NEWS           UK: The GfK consumer confidence index posted at -42 in December (vs -43 expected).BT Group, a telecoms company, announced that it will be combining its Global and Enterprise units into a single B2B unit called BT Business, saying: "The combined unit will enhance value for all our B2B customers, strengthen our competitive position, and deliver material synergies."CRH Plc, a building materials company, said it has established a new venture capital unit called CRH Ventures, adding: "With access to a $250 million venturing and innovation fund to invest, CRH Ventures will partner with construction and climate technology companies, operating across the construction value chain."Shell, an oil giant, and its Dutch joint-venture partner Eneco has won the right to build an offshore wind farm with a capacity of 756 megawatts in the North Sea, announced the Dutch government.Basic Resources, travel & leisure and oil & gas shares fell most in London on Wednesday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Barclays (-3.16% to 155.2p), Croda International (-1.88% to 6884p) crossed under their 50-day moving average.From a technical point of view, Diageo (-2.36% to 3675.5p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   02:00 Retail Sales MoM (Nov) 0.3% HIGH     02:00 Retail Sales YoY (Nov) -5.3% MEDIUM     02:00 Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM (Nov) 0.2% MEDIUM     02:00 Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY (Nov) -6.1% LOW     04:30 S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash (Dec) 48.3 MEDIUM     04:30 S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (Dec) 46.3 MEDIUM     04:30 S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI Flash (Dec) 47.7 LOW     09:45 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Dec) 48.2 MEDIUM     09:45 S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Dec) 47.8 MEDIUM     09:45 S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Dec) 48 MEDIUM     13:00 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (Dec/16)   HIGH     13:00 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (Dec/16)   LOW                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           HSBC Holdings PLC HSBA : LSE 492.65 GBp -0.72% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   AstraZeneca PLC AZN : LSE 11,360.00 GBp +0.05% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Barclays PLC BARC : LSE 155.20 GBp -2.68% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Standard Chartered PLC STAN : LSE 604.60 GBp +0.93% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Rio Tinto PLC RIO : LSE 5,657.00 GBp -3.05% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.   Pivot: 1.0615   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0615 with targets at 1.0685 & 1.0710 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0615 look for further downside with 1.0590 & 1.0570 as targets.   Comment: The RSI shows upside momentum.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: under pressure.   Pivot: 3879.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3879.00 with targets at 3825.00 & 3794.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3879.00 look for further upside with 3899.00 & 3923.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is mixed.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: expect 79.30.   Pivot: 82.20   Our preference: Short positions below 82.20 with targets at 80.10 & 79.30 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 82.20 look for further upside with 83.20 & 84.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI calls for a drop.        

Bernard Arnault, founder and patriarch of family holding company Groupe Familial Arnault, overtook electric car and rocket manufacturer Elon Musk last week. He wrapped up the number one spot in two of the most popular lists of the world's richest people. According to Bloomberg, the billionaire currently has a fortune of USD 163 billion. The question may arise, however, how does luxury goods tycoon becomes the richest man despite global fears of a recession? The story of Bernard Arnault Bernard Arnault was born in 1949 in Paris. His father was an engineer and owner of a construction company and his mother was a pianist. Arnault graduated in law and economics before embarking on a career in business, working for his father's company. In 1984, Arnault took control of Christian Dior (Dior), which was then in financial difficulty. Under his leadership, the company restructured and became hugely successful, becoming one of the most important fashion houses in the world. Arnault continues to serve as CEO of Christian Dior. In addition to this, he is also the founder and CEO of LVMH, the world's largest luxury goods corporation, which includes many brands in various segments, including fashion, jewellery, perfume, spirits, watches, electronics and other luxury products. Arnault is also involved in many philanthropic initiatives and is known for his commitment to art and culture. The value of the billionaire's fortune has doubled in the past two years. Arnault's fortune currently consists of 79% of the shares of fashion house Christian Dior (Dior), 15% of luxury goods company Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy (LVMH), owning brands such as Louis Vuitton, Lou Fendi, Givenchy, Kenzo, Loewe, Marc Jacobs, Celine, Berluti, Emilio Pucci, Thomas Pink, Loro Pian, among others. The remainder of the wealth is made up of smaller private investments and as much as US$10 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Dior, Daily Elon Musk's dethronement Elon Musk's fortune has declined by more than 40% since the beginning of the year and now stands at US$155 billion. To a large extent, this appears to be linked to declines in the share price of Tesla (Tesla), which accounts for 34% of the billionaire's portfolio. The valuation of the carmaker's assets has fallen by 57% since the beginning of the year, and the company does not seem to be helped by further reports of more Tesla shares being sold. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Tesla, Weekly Why is the luxury goods industry doing so well in the downturn? Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy's (LVMH) year-to-date revenue increased by 28% year-on-year. What may seem interesting is that the company recorded the highest revenue growth in Europe (up 43%). The company attributes much of this growth to organic growth. It might seem, however, that Europe, hit by the energy crisis and the economic slowdown, would be the first to cut back on spending on luxury goods. However, we could be dealing with what is called the 'snob' effect in economics, which is the phenomenon of buying goods according to social status level. This could explain why, when most people are struggling to cope with rising costs caused by inflation on basic products, the wealthiest people do not seem to feel it as much. Read next: The FCC Seeks More Than $200 Million From Four Cellphone Carriers| FXMAG.COM Source: Conotoxia MT5, LVMH, Weekly   Grzegorz Dróżdż, Junior Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 21, 2022               Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,044.00 +105.00 (+0.75%) Read the analysis 13,850.00 14,080.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,364.00 7,419.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,870.50 +21.25 (+0.55%) Read the analysis 3,884.00 3,834.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,242.75 +67.00 (+0.60%) Read the analysis 11,310.00 11,120.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,259.00 +206.00 (+0.62%) Read the analysis 33,350.00 33,000.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 76.39 +0.16 (+0.21%) Read the analysis 76.90 75.40     Gold 1,815.80 -2.133 (-0.12%) Read the analysis 1,821.00 1,806.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Tuesday, U.S. stocks pared early-session losses to close mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 92 points (+0.28%) to 32,849, the S&P 500 added 4 points (+0.11%) to 3,821, while the Nasdaq 100 declined 12 points (-0.11%) to 11,072.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped 10.5 basis points to 3.690% after the Bank of Japan surprised markets by allowing long-term government bond yields to rise.Energy (+1.52%), insurance (+1.09%), and media (+0.83%) sectors were the top performers, while automobiles (-6.27%), transportation (-1.42%), and semiconductors (-0.73%) sectors lost the most.Tesla (TSLA) slumped 8.05% after brokerages Evercore ISI and Mizuho cut their price targets on the stocks.Wells Fargo (WFC) fell 2.01% after the bank agreed to a $3.7 billion settlement with authorities over mismanagement of automobile loans, mortgages and deposit accounts.From a technical point of view, Walmart (WMT) crossed above its 50-day moving average.Regarding U.S. economic data, the number of housing starts posted at an annualized rate of 1.427 million units (vs 1.40 million units expected).European stocks closed mixed. The DAX 40 fell 0.42%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.35%, while the FTSE 100 edged up 0.13%.U.S. WTI crude futures rose $0.6 to $75.96 a barrel.Gold prices jumped $31 to $1,818 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexAs expected, the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a negative level of -0.10%. However, the central bank shocked markets with a tweak to its yield curve control, allowing 10-year government bond yield to move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target, wider than the previous 25 basis point band.USD/JPY then plunged 521 pips (-3.81%) to 131.70, the lowest level since August.The U.S. dollar index then fell to 103.99.EUR/USD rose 17 pips to 1.0624. Germany's data showed that producer prices fell 3.9% on month (vs -2.0% expected) but rose 28.2% on year (vs +30.8% expected) in November.GBP/USD added 28 pips to 1.2177.AUD/USD declined 22 pips to 0.6678.USD/CHF fell 20 pips to 0.9266, and the USD/CAD was down 40 pips to 1.3608.Bitcoin rebounded over 2% to $16,850.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY rebounded to 132.07 from a prior low near 130.56.Meanwhile, EUR/USD eased to 1.0615 and GBP/USD fell to 1.2165.Gold was steady at $1,816.Bitcoin held gains at $16,827.Expected TodayGermany's January GfK consumer confidence index is estimated at -36.0.In the U.S., December Conference Board consumer confidence index is expected at 100.1, while third quarter current account deficit is estimated at 230 billion dollars. Also, existing home sales are anticipated at an annualized rate of 4.3 million units.           UK MARKET NEWS           Bunzl, a distribution and outsourcing company, said 2022 revenue is expected to increase year-on-year by 10% at constant exchange rates, while 2023 revenue is anticipated to be slightly higher than in 2022 and adjusted EPS is estimated to be moderately lower year-on-year due to higher interest rates and an increased effective tax rate.AstraZeneca, a pharmaceutical group, said its Imfinzi has been approved in the European Union for the 1st-line treatment of adult patients with unresectable or metastatic biliary tract cancer in combination with chemotherapy, while its Lynparza in combination with abiraterone has also been approved as 1st-line treatment for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.Oil & Gas, construction & materials and auto & parts shares gained most in London on Monday.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   06:00 CBI Distributive Trades (Dec) -23 MEDIUM     07:00 MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Dec/16)   MEDIUM     08:30 Current Account (Q3) -230B MEDIUM     10:00 Existing Home Sales MoM (Nov) -3% MEDIUM     10:00 Existing Home Sales (Nov) 4.3M MEDIUM     10:00 CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) 100.1 MEDIUM     10:30 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Dec/16) 2.14M MEDIUM     10:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Dec/16) -1.657M MEDIUM                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           Verona Pharma PLC VRNA : NASDAQ 18.59 USD +43.11% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   MorphoSys AG MOR : XETRA 12.72 EUR -15.43% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Siemens Energy AG ENR : XETRA 16.835 EUR -4.07% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Phoenix Group Holdings PLC PHNX : LSE 594.00 GBp -3.48% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Purplebricks Group PLC PURP : LSE 9.275 GBp +3.06% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) No Data       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Bayerische Motoren Werke AG BMW : XETRA 83.35 EUR -0.60% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: intraday support around 1.0595.   Pivot: 1.0595   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0595 with targets at 1.0640 & 1.0660 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0595 look for further downside with 1.0575 & 1.0555 as targets.   Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (H3)‎ Intraday: watch 3767.00.   Pivot: 3856.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3856.00 with targets at 3767.00 & 3739.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3856.00 look for further upside with 3889.00 & 3919.00 as targets.   Comment: The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 3856.00.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: the bias remains bullish.   Pivot: 79.10   Our preference: Long positions above 79.10 with targets at 80.80 & 81.30 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 79.10 look for further downside with 78.70 & 78.30 as targets.   Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.        

Tesla continues to decline as expected. By breaking nicely below the S/H/S neckline, we should see a continuation lower toward support in the 88-90 area. Tesla is currently trading near support, so a temporary corrective rally should not come as a surprise, but mark the words temporary. Renewed downside pressure should ultimately set the stage for the continuation lower to the 88-90 support area from where a final impulsive rally remains probable towards new all-time highs.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-12-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305922

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 22, 2022               Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,191.00 +32.00 (+0.23%) Read the analysis 14,220.00 14,080.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,555.00 7,430.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,917.50 +11.75 (+0.30%) Read the analysis 3,930.00 3,884.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,373.75 +39.25 (+0.35%) Read the analysis 11,400.00 11,280.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,645.00 +76.00 (+0.23%) Read the analysis 33,780.00 33,330.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 78.74 +0.45 (+0.57%) Read the analysis 79.50 77.50     Gold 1,818.84 +4.45 (+0.25%) Read the analysis 1,824.00 1,810.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Wednesday, U.S. stocks closed over 1% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 526 points (+1.60%) to 33,376, the S&P 500 gained 56 points (+1.49%) to 3,878, and the Nasdaq 100 rebounded 163 points (+1.48%) to 11,235.Regarding U.S. economic data, the Conference Board consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose to 108.3 in December (vs 100.1 expected). The number of existing home sales dropped to an annualized rate of 4.09 million units in November (vs 4.30 million units expected).The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased 1.3 basis points to 3.669%.Consumer durables & apparel (+7.18%), semiconductors (+2.52%), and commercial & professional services (+2.06%) sectors led the market higher.Nike (NKE) jumped 12.18% and Fedex (FDX) rose 3.43%, as both companies' quarterly earnings exceeded expectations.From a technical point of view, 3M (MMM) and Verizon Communications (VZ) crossed above their 50-day moving average.European stocks also closed higher. The DAX 40 rose 1.54%, the CAC 40 increased 2.01%, and the FTSE 100 was up 1.72%.U.S. WTI crude futures climbed $2.20 (+2.88%) to $78.47 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Department reported a reduction of 5.89 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles (vs -1.65 million barrels expected).Gold price declined $3 to $1,814 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar index held steady at 104.21.USD/JPY gained 66 pips to 132.39.EUR/USD dipped 14 pips to 1.0610. In Germany, the GfK consumer confidence index improved to -37.8 for January (vs -36.0 expected).GBP/USD dropped 100 pips to 1.2083. U.K. data showed that public-sector net borrowing rose to a record of 21.2 billion pounds in November from 13.4 billion pounds in October. AUD/USD added 34 pips to 0.6712.USD/CHF added 8 pips to 0.9268, while USD/CAD dipped 5 pips to 1.3606.Bitcoin traded slightly lower to $16,790.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY retreated to 131.75 from 132.39 in the prior session.Meanwhile, EUR/USD bounced to 1.0635 and GBP/USD rebounded to 1.2125.Gold advanced $1,819.Bitcoin edged up to $16,850.Expected TodayU.K. final readings of third quarter gross domestic product is expected to be up 2.4% on year, while current account deficit is estimated at 18 billion pounds.In the U.S., final readings of third quarter annualized gross domestic product is estimated to be up 2.9% on quarter, while weekly initial jobless claims are expected at 225,000. Also, November Chicago Fed national activity index is anticipated at -0.18 and leading index is expected to drop 0.5% on month.           UK MARKET NEWS           Shell, a giant oil producer, has temporarily suspended production at its Prelude floating liquefied natural gas site in Australia following a small fire incident, according to Reuters.Basic Resources, banks and oil & gas shares gained most in London on Tuesday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Barclays (+1.5% to 158.08p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.From a technical point of view, Ashtead Group (+1.5% to 4797p), BAT (+1.18% to 3353.5p), BP (+2.68% to 480p), Diageo (+1.75% to 3693p) crossed above their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   02:00 Current Account (Q3) -18B MEDIUM     02:00 GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q3) 2.4% MEDIUM     02:00 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q3) -0.2% MEDIUM     08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/17) 225k MEDIUM     08:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Nov) -0.18 MEDIUM     08:30 GDP Price Index QoQ Final (Q3) 4.3% MEDIUM     08:30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q3) 2.9% MEDIUM                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           AstraZeneca PLC AZN : LSE 11,244.00 GBp -1.02% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Uniper SE UN01 : XETRA 3.086 EUR +3.14% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   BHP Group PLC BHP : LSE 2,585.00 GBp +2.42% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Cineworld Group PLC CINE : LSE 3.96 GBp -12.97% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Bayerische Motoren Werke AG BMW : XETRA 84.15 EUR +1.63% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   HSBC Holdings PLC HSBA : LSE 511.30 GBp +3.79% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: further advance.   Pivot: 1.0620   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0620 with targets at 1.0660 & 1.0680 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0620 look for further downside with 1.0590 & 1.0575 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (H3)‎ Intraday: bullish bias above 3825.00.   Pivot: 3825.00   Our preference: Long positions above 3825.00 with targets at 3930.00 & 3990.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 3825.00 look for further downside with 3767.00 & 3739.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI calls for a new upleg.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: towards 84.00.   Pivot: 81.40   Our preference: Long positions above 81.40 with targets at 83.10 & 84.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 81.40 look for further downside with 80.80 & 80.10 as targets.   Comment: The RSI calls for a new upleg.        

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 23, 2022               Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,044.00 +88.00 (+0.63%) Read the analysis 13,850.00 14,080.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,420.00 7,500.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,856.00 +6.75 (+0.18%) Read the analysis 3,815.00 3,870.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,066.75 +12.50 (+0.11%) Read the analysis 10,950.00 11,185.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,260.00 +52.00 (+0.16%) Read the analysis 32,950.00 33,330.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 78.27 +0.78 (+1.01%) Read the analysis 77.60 79.20     Gold 1,794.18 +1.662 (+0.09%) Read the analysis 1,803.00 1,783.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Thursday, U.S. stocks tumbled again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 348 points (-1.05%) to 33,027, the S&P 500 fell 55 points (-1.44%) to 3,822, and the Nasdaq 100 slumped 279 points (-2.49%) to 10,956.Regarding U.S. economic data, third-quarter gross domestic product growth was finalized at an annualized rate of 3.2% on quarter (vs +2.9% in the previous estimate). The latest number of initial jobless claims rose to 216,000 (vs 225,000 expected).The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield added 2.2 basis points to 3.684%.Automobiles (-7.81%), semiconductors (-4.6%), and energy (-2.31%) sectors lost the most.Tesla (TSLA) slumped 8.88% after the electric-car maker offered a higher discount of $7,500 on Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in the U.S.Micron Technology (MU) fell 3.44%, as the memory-chip maker reported lower-than-expected quarterly earnings and announced plans to cut its workforce by about 10%.CarMax (KMX) declined 3.66% after the company posted an 86% drop in quarterly profit on weak demand for used cars.From a technical point of view, 3M (MMM), McDonald's (MCD), Microsoft (MSFT), and Walmart (WMT) crossed under their 50-day moving average.European stocks also closed lower. The DAX 40 fell 1.30%, the CAC 40 declined 0.95%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.37%.U.S. WTI crude futures settled little changed at $78.26 a barrel.Gold price slid $21 to $1,792 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar index held steady at 104.40.EUR/USD fell 12 pips to 1.0593.USD/JPY dipped 7 pips to 132.39.GBP/USD declined 46 pips to 1.2036. U.K. data showed that third-quarter gross domestic product declined 0.3% on quarter (vs -0.2% in the previous estimate, +0.2% in the previous quarter).AUD/USD dropped 42 pips to 0.6665.USD/CHF gained 47 pips to 0.9314, and USD/CAD increased 33 pips to 1.3645.Bitcoin was flat at $16,785.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY climbed to 132.65. This morning, Japan's data showed that consumer prices increased 3.8% on year in November (vs +3.9% expected).Meanwhile, EUR/USD was broadly flat at 1.0605 and GBP/USD was little changed at 1.2035.Gold edged up to $1,795.Bitcoin rose to $16,824.Expected TodayFrance's producer prices index is estimated to be up 20.3% on year in November.In the U.S., durable goods orders are expected to drop 0.5% on month in November, while personal spending and income are both anticipated to grow 0.3%. Also, November new home sales are estimated to be down 5.0% on month and final readings of December Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected at 59.1.           UK MARKET NEWS           Retail, basic resources and insurance shares gained most in London on Wednesday.From a technical point of view, Ashtead Group (-1.5% to 4725p), Diageo (-0.81% to 3663p) crossed under their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   08:00 Building Permits Final (Nov) 1.342M MEDIUM     08:30 Personal Income MoM (Nov) 0.3% HIGH     08:30 Personal Spending MoM (Nov) 0.3% HIGH     08:30 Durable Goods Orders MoM (Nov) -0.5% HIGH     08:30 PCE Price Index YoY (Nov) 5.5% MEDIUM     08:30 PCE Price Index MoM (Nov) 0.2% MEDIUM     08:30 Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Nov) 0.1% MEDIUM     10:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Dec) 59.1 MEDIUM     10:00 New Home Sales MoM (Nov) -5% MEDIUM     10:00 New Home Sales (Nov) 610k MEDIUM     13:00 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (Dec/23)   HIGH                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           BHP Group PLC BHP : LSE 2,537.50 GBp +1.30% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Uniper SE UN01 : XETRA 2.916 EUR +1.18% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Volkswagen AG VOW : XETRA 145.85 EUR -14.26% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Deutsche Bank AG DBK : XETRA 10.636 EUR +7.38% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   SIG PLC SHI : LSE 29.50 GBp +2.25% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   BioNTech SE BNTX : NASDAQ 179.88 USD +2.64% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: intraday support around 1.0570.   Pivot: 1.0570   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0570 with targets at 1.0635 & 1.0655 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0570 look for further downside with 1.0550 & 1.0530 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (H3)‎ Intraday: turning down.   Pivot: 3850.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3850.00 with targets at 3800.00 & 3760.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3850.00 look for further upside with 3895.00 & 3930.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: 79.60 expected.   Pivot: 83.00   Our preference: Short positions below 83.00 with targets at 80.65 & 79.60 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 83.00 look for further upside with 83.80 & 84.70 as targets.   Comment: As long as the resistance at 83.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 80.65 remains high.        

Yesterday, Russia finally responded to the EU’s price cap on its oil exports, saying that they will simply stop exporting their oil to parties that ‘directly or indirectly use the mechanism of setting a price cap’. Crude Oil The latter announcement gave a minor boost to crude oil yesterday, but the barrel of American crude remained offered into the 50-DMA, near $81.60pb, and the price is back below the $80pb this morning. BUT, an eventual decrease in Russian oil supply gives support to the oil bulls’ in the medium run, along with other factors as China reopening and cold winter in America. China reopening news IMPORTANT to note: If the Chinese reopening story is positive for oil and commodity prices - and for the massively battered Chinese stocks, it’s bad news for global inflation. This is why we don’t see the US stocks gain on China reopening news, but we rather see them under a decent pressure, as the surge in Chinese demand will certainly boost inflation through higher energy and commodity prices. Inflation And in response to higher inflation, the central banks will continue hiking rates. As a result, the sovereign bond yields are higher, the stocks are lower, while the US dollar is mixed. Apple And Tesla Apple is down to lowest levels since summer 2021, and Tesla’s deep dive deepens by the day. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:44 Russians won't sell oil to parties involved in price cap 3:32 China reopening story is not all rosy! 6:03 Bitcoin hash rate rings alarm bell 7:30 Tesla races to the bottom Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Russia #oil #ban #China #Covid #reopening #crudeoil #rally #inflation #expectations #USD #EUR #AUD #XAU #Bitcoin #Apple #Amazon #Tesla #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  

The electric car market is mainly associated with Tesla, its situation is also observed by investors. The stock markets are still attracting new investors, the current year is coming to an end, so it is worth checking what should be confessed to this market in 2023. In this article: US Treasury yields fell Morningstar look at stocks market Tesla news US Treasury yields fell Investors are bracing themselves for the potential pressures of a recession, persistent inflation and what this could mean for Federal Reserve policy, especially with regard to interest rates, in 2023. They will be scouring the latest economic data releases this year for clues. Many investors are hoping the data will signal an easing of inflationary pressures, as it would suggest the Fed may slow down further or stop rate hikes altogether. These factors affect the market situation of bonds. US Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors became concerned about economic growth and the direction of monetary policy for 2023. Treasury yields slip as investors gauge 2023 Fed policy https://t.co/uR6xgrxlPy — CNBC (@CNBC) December 28, 2022 Read next: The Crisis Of The Semiconductor Industry, Chip Inventory Levels Are Well Above Our Target Level| FXMAG.COM Morningstar look at stocks market The new year is getting closer. Everyone prepares as best they can to start it in the best possible way, makes plans. The stock market is under the watch of Morningstar analysts. How it presented itself this year and what it is heading for in 2023 is detailed in the following tweet. Early in the year, Morningstar analysts deemed many of the stocks they cover to be overvalued. But after the broad market has fallen more than 20 percent since the start of the year, analysts believe valuations have moved too far in the opposite direction. Over the last 20 years, Morningstar analysts found that US stocks were undervalued only 10 different times, or about 36% of the time. According to Morningstar, among the most underrated industries today are online content and information, including stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL), Google's parent company, and Meta Platforms (META), Facebook's parent company. Where are stocks looking cheap or expensive as we head into 2023?Here are 7 charts detailing our analysts' latest stock market valuations: https://t.co/UZMK7Ygufy pic.twitter.com/uUsnYGWKZI — Morningstar, Inc. (@MorningstarInc) December 28, 2022 Tesla Tesla is the most popular manufacturer of electric cars. Sales have increased in recent years, but many factors affect car prices. Fuel prices are easing, interest rates are rising, Tesla output is increasing, and EV competition is growing, all of which have implications for the price of used Teslas. Soaring gasoline prices as a result of the war in Ukraine have boosted demand for the Tesla, one of the few long-range electric vehicles on the market. Buyers of some new Teslas took advantage of the booming market to sell their relatively new cars at a profit and then order new ones, fueling the demand for new Tesla cars. Used Tesla prices are falling faster than those of other automakers, and clean energy status symbols languish in dealerships longer, according to the information. WATCH: Fuel prices are easing, interest rates are rising, Tesla output is increasing, and EV competition is growing, leading used Tesla prices to fall faster than the market. It's creating a cascading effect on new Tesla prices https://t.co/jCLZphpcRX pic.twitter.com/ZgXRr3d2Fc — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) December 28, 2022

In our last update of Tesla, we called for a dip to 126.60, which was seen and even broken as the low was seen at 108.24 close to our ideal target near 90.00. We do think the downside action is a bit overdone at the moment, which is also seen in the RSI making all-time lows. This could mean a period of sideway consolidation before renewed downside pressure towards the 90 target. That said, this is not the time to try and catch a falling knife, and the risk that Tesla will continue trading lower is too big as a break below 90.00 would call for a move closer to 63.00. Relevance up to 07:00 2022-12-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306689

The companies of a business magnate and investor Elon Musk have been struggling with problems lately. Tesla has a problem with listing on the stock exchange and Twitter with technical problems. Around 10,000 people reported Twitter going down Wednesday night. Twitter Twitter's performance has been under scrutiny since Musk completed his takeover of the company in late October. He then downsized the company's workforce, leading some former employees and outside observers to question whether the cutbacks would hamper Twitter's operations. Users who tried to log in via their desktop browsers on Wednesday received an error message. The Twitter Spaces tab, which allows users to join real-time conversations with others, also did not work on the platform's mobile app version. Other aspects of the Twitter app seemed to work well for users, including the ability to tweet. The problems were solved after about two hours. Musk, when asked on Twitter if there had been a service disruption, tweeted "It's working for me." It wasn't clear from which Twitter function Musk sent the message. Twitter, like many online platforms, has had occasional outages in the past due to technical glitches, including one in July. The outage occurs amidst a brawl between Twitter and Elon Musk, the world's richest man. Internet outages are quite common and have affected many tech companies over the years, although the length of the outages can vary greatly. They can affect people's ability to do business or connect with friends and family. Twitter shares hold their level above 50.0. Thus, they have the best month of the year. Read next: The US Will Require PCR Testing For Travelers From China, BRF Agree To Pay $111 Million To The Government| FXMAG.COM Tesla Elon Musk's electric vehicle maker is nearing its worst December stock performance and endured a seven-day streak after Tuesday's close. It was Tesla's longest streak since September 2018, when the company struggled to get its new Model 3 into the hands of customers. Tesla has lost almost a third of its value in the past seven days of losses, returning to August 2020 levels. The stock rebounded slightly on Wednesday, closing 3.3% higher. Musk Twitter call Spaces signaled that he would not be selling any Tesla stock for at least 18 to 24 months. The chief executive has liquidated more than $39 billion in the company's stock since the stock peaked in November 2021. The billionaire's comments on Twitter Spaces were among his most expansive responses to Tesla investor concerns that he had been distracted since he bought Twitter in October in a $44 billion deal. Tesla shares have fallen more than 60% this year, underperforming the broader market. Some of Musk's actions on Twitter and his political comments on the platform have raised concerns that Tesla's brand could suffer. The company's image has deteriorated in recent months, in part because of Musk's Twitter involvement, according to brand surveys. The Tesla boss also said the car company will continue to invest as part of its growth plans. He said the company was "close to choosing a location for its next Gigafactory", without giving details. He said Tesla also plans to start refining lithium for batteries at its Corpus Christi, Texas facility in about two years to help the electric vehicle maker meet demand for materials needed for power cells. As mentioned above, Tesla shares are the worst of the year. Such low levels of the electric car manufacturer has been recorded since 2020. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

What affects the price of cryptocurrencies? Over the past years, the digital currency market has gathered a multi-million-strong community among others from traders, speculators and investment funds. This was mainly due to high volatility of those assets whose price movements are very dynamic and create potential earning potential. Beginner investors should pay attention to the price when starting cryptocurrency trading Bitcoin, trying to interpret it in the context of macroeconomic, market and political. This is due to the fact that the entry of large institutions and companies, such as GrayScale or Tesla, most likely ended the period in which cryptocurrency prices moved in a manner uncorrelated with the traditional stock exchange. Vitalik Buterin, the creator of the second most popular cryptocurrency - Ethereum, recently returned attention to the fact that the price of Bitcoin moves in a way that is strongly correlated with the index US tech companies on NASDAQ. This is an important aspect because the price Bitcoin is treated as an indicator of the condition of the entire crypto market, where a large price drop the oldest of the cryptocurrencies most often also causes drops in other coins. All that creates a system of connected vessels - from the "classic" exchange to the latest "altcoins", that's why it is important to keep up to date with important economic events. Other factors that have a significant impact on the price of cryptocurrencies include: Information on market entry or exit by large institutions and companies Actions taken by the largest Bitcoin holders - the so-called “whales” A growing market for Metaverse concepts Information on the further adoption of blockchain technology It is also worth noting that the cryptocurrency market is highly susceptible to the so-called "information noise", occurring most often in social media, where individual entries are known people have already had a significant influence on the formation of prices largest cryptocurrencies. A perfect example here is the case of Elon Musk, whose tweet about him considering withdrawing Bitcoin as accepted by The Tesla of the means of payment was caused by a several percent drop in the valuation of this currency. By trading on the XTB trading platform, the investor gains access to tools enabling monitoring of the current market situation, e.g. for news and analysis prepared by a team of professional Analysts. At the same time, built in platform, advanced technical analysis tools allow you to interpret movements prices and their assessment at every stage of the investment process.

Summary:  While Japan, the UK and the US have yet to start trading this year, markets are on the move elsewhere, as mainland European stocks put in a strong session yesterday and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong is making a bid at multi-month highs overnight. Despite Japan’s closed markets, the JPY is surging, as are the Chinese renminbi and gold, which rose overnight to a six-month high in USD terms.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures opened 0.7% higher on the first print of the year but have since retreated lower up 0.3% for the session compared to the last day of trading in 2022. The positive sentiment from yesterday’s European equity session and positive trading session in Asia, despite a slightly weaker than estimated China PMI manufacturing figures for December, are carrying over into US equity futures. We still expect equity markets to be quiet and not reveal anything meaningful in terms of information of positioning and flows until early next week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) On its first day of trading in 2023, Hang Seng Index opened lower but rallied to post a 2% gain as of writing. China telcos, electricity generating companies, pharmaceuticals, autos, and Macao casino operators led the charge higher. It is widely expected that the border between the mainland and Hong Kong will be reopened as soon as January 8, 2023. Investors brushed the weak December NBS PMI reports released during the holiday and the Caixin PMI today and the inevitable surge and spread of Covid inflections during the initial stage of relaxation of pandemic containment in China to focus on the improved economic outlook in mainland China and Hong Kong for 2023. China’s CSI 300 Index gained 0.5%. FX: The action in FX remains firmly centred on Asia … with the Japanese yen surging to new highs overnight versus the rest of G10 currencies as the 130.00 level in USDJPY gave way without much fight and EURJPY is poking below 138.50, its lowest level since September of last year as the market has grown increasingly convinced that the Bank of Japan is set for a further policy tightening this year and despite the ECB’s overt hawkishness. The Chinese renminbi is also off to a strong start in 2023 despite dramatic disruptions to activity on the ground from Covid as a further CNH rally overnight has taken USDCNH to within striking distance of its 200-day moving average near 6.86. The USDJPY performance is particularly interesting, given the tight correlation of USDJPY with US treasury yields over the last 12 months and more, as US yields backed up sharply to end 2022 and have yet to trade this year. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3 ) Crude oil futures fluctuated around unchanged as a new year got underway overnight in Asia. Another volatile year undoubtedly lies ahead with multiple uncertainties still impacting supply and demand. The two biggest that potentially will weigh against each other in the short term remain the prospect for a bumpy recovery in Chinese demand being offset by worries about a global economic slowdown. Covid fears, inflation fighting central banks, lack of investments into the discovery of future supply, labour shortages and sanctions against Russia will also play its part in the coming months. Sentiment, however, did improve ahead of yearend after hedge funds raised bullish Brent crude oil bets by the most in 17 months. Gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) strongly out of the starting blocks Gold trades at a fresh six-month high above $1840 and silver an eight-month high at $24.50 as the positive momentum from December gets carried over into the new year. The US treasury market opens later today but futures are signalling softer yields from where we left off on Friday while the dollar trades soft led by a strong yen. In general, we are looking for a price friendly 2023 supported by recession and stock market valuation risks, an eventual peak in central bank rates combined with the prospect of a weaker dollar and inflation not returning to the expected sub-3% level by yearend all adding support. In addition, the de-dollarization seen by several central banks last year, when a record amount of gold was bought look set to continue, thereby providing a soft floor under the market. In the week ahead we focus on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s US job report. Above $1842, the 50% of the 2022 correction, gold will be looking for resistance at $1850 and $1878 next. Copper jumps despite short-term headwinds HG copper trades up more than one percent at the start of a new trading year, but still within a tightening range, currently between $3.8 and $3.94 per pound. We expect to see a bumpy start to the year with China’s reopening process potentially being delayed by virus outbreaks and companies shutting down early ahead of the Lunar New Year, starting already on January 23 this year.  In addition, the risk of a global economic slowdown as highlighted by the IMF in its latest update may also weigh at the start of a year. Overall, however, the medium term offers further upside driven by reduced mining supply and increased focus on the electrification of the world, a copper intensive process that may offset weakness from the housing sector. Yields on US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) start the year near multi-week highs US Treasuries have just started trading for 2023 this morning in Europe, opening some five basis points lower for the 10-year benchmark at 3.82% after backing up sharply as 2022 drew to a close, particularly at the longer end of the yield curve, helping to steepen the 2-10 portion of the treasury yield curve from its most inverted levels in some four decades earlier in December at around –80 basis points, to closer to –50 basis points as market participants figure that a recession is on the way this year that will see the Fed chopping rates by year end. The 10-year yield level to watch to the upside is perhaps the 4.00% area ahead of the 4.34% high from October, which is a 15-year high. What is going on? ECB President Lagarde out with fresh hawkish rhetoric yesterday … warning of a further rise in borrowing costs to fight inflation - “It would be even worse if we allowed inflation to become entrenched.” Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel was also out yesterday warning of a “significant increase in long-term inflation expectations”. European yields surged in the wake of the December 15 ECB meeting on Lagarde’s hawkish blast at the press conference, with German 2-year yields, for example, rising from 2.13% before that meeting to as high as 2.77% last Friday before easing a few basis points yesterday. Tesla deliveries for Q4 fell short of estimates, despite incentives The company delivered 405.3k vehicles in the fourth quarter, which fell short of consensus expectations for over 420k. Still, the number was a record for quarterly deliveries and strongly higher from the 308.7k vehicles Tesla sold in Q4 of last year. Tesla shares lost 65% last year, though they did surge over 10% off late December lows just ahead of year-end. UK Economy may face worst recession in 2023 An FT poll of over 100 economists suggested that four out of five respondents think that UK growth will fall short of global peers, with GDP already falling and continuing to do so for this calendar year, after the inflationary shocks of the last two years will required that the Bank of England continues to raise borrowing costs and as the new Sunak-Hunt government is bent on stabilizing the country’s debt trajectory with a more austere fiscal regime than its predecessors. Recession will hit a third of the world this year The new year has kicked off with a warning from the IMF head that a third of the global economy will be hit by recession this year. In their latest update Kristalina Georgieva warned that the world faces a “tougher” year in 2023 than the previous 12 months as the US, EU and China are all slowing simultaneously. China could see its annual growth in line with global growth for the first time in 40 years and potentially acting as a drag on instead of a driver of worldwide growth. She did sound more optimistic on the prospects for the US saying it may avoid recession because unemployment is so low. What are we watching next? US data this week relative to market expectations for Fed policy The market continues to express the view that inflationary pressures will decelerate and that the labour market will loosen up sufficiently for the Fed to begin chopping rates before year-end. Last week’s US Consumer Confidence survey for December showed a strong surge in confidence, a development that is at odds with past patterns for the survey if the country is tilting into a recession. Further strong US data for December and the next month or two would be an interesting challenge of the market expectations. This week sees the release of the December ISM manufacturing survey and the December jobs report, both on Friday. US Debt Ceiling issue as the new 118th US Congress convenes today in Washington D.C. The perennial debt ceiling issue was largely skirted over the last couple of years as pandemic priorities may have prevented partisan grandstanding. But Republican lawmakers have promised a fight to extract concessions from the Biden administration. Watching for how hard the Republicans are willing to take this issue as the debt ceiling will be reached by summer of this year. Earnings to watch The earnings calendar is light in the first week of the new year, but in a couple of weeks the first Q4 earnings releases will begin to be released. The Q4 earnings season will continue its focus on margin pressures related to input costs on employees and raw materials including energy. Thursday: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, Constellation Brands, RPM International Friday: Naturgy Energy Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0855 – Germany Dec. Unemployment Change 0930 – UK Dec. Final Manufacturing PMI 1300 – Germany Dec. CPI 1430 – Canada Manufacturing PMI 1445 – US Dec. Final Manufacturing PMI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 3, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Electronic cars are becoming more and more popular, be it from manufacturers, users or investors. Like everything, it has its limits. It turns out that the most popular EV manufacturer Tesla overestimated its capabilities for which it can pay as much as $2.2 million. Ecology is not only a change of sapline cars to EVs, but also a reduction in the production of plastic or its recycling. Plastic is still arriving and its recycling takes too long compared to its production. Chemical recycling may be the solution. In this article: Punishment for Tesla Chemical recycling Punishment for Tesla There is no doubt that electric cars are our future. The most famous electric car maker, Tesla, has been struggling with a lot of problems lately, while its owner Elon Musk is focusing his attention on Twitter activities. Although we can already use electric vehicles, there are still many problems that need to be eliminated if electric cars are to become as common as the current ones powered by oil or gas. Tesla advertises itself as the most efficient electric car, but according to South Korea, it is not. The driving range of the US electric car maker's cars drops by up to 50.5% in cold weather compared to how they are advertised online. According to the Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC), the range has been exaggerated, and thus the KFTC will impose a fine on the producer. South Korea's antitrust regulator has said it will impose a fine of 2.85 billion won ($2.2 million) on Tesla Inc. South Korea fines Tesla $2.2 million, saying the driving range of the American EV maker's cars can plunge in low temperatures by up to about half of what they’re advertised online https://t.co/bjVbATtXyk pic.twitter.com/jpQTY2wjAG — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) January 3, 2023 Read next: First Trading Day Of 2023: GBP/USD Is Trading 1.2051, USD/JPY Pair Below 131, The Aussie Pair Is Around 0.68 And EUR/USD Above 1.0680| FXMAG.COM How to deal with excess plastic garbage - chemical recycling As consumption increases, so does production, and so does trash. On a worldwide scale, we produce 2.6 trillion pounds of trash per year. What's more, the most of it are plastic items that decompose far too long. Plastics, often colloquially referred to as plastic, can take 100 to 1000 years to decompose. In this case, too, much depends on the specificity of the discarded material. For example, a plastic bag takes about 400 years to decompose, and candy wrappers take 450 years to decompose. To change the amount of waste generated, it is recycled, but as recent data shows, this is not enough. Scientists and other activists are trying to find innovative solutions to this problem. The problem is that most plastics are simply not recyclable. And even those whose quality deteriorates every time they are reworked, meaning they will eventually end up in the landfill as well. Many environmentalists say this means we need to stop producing plastics at source and support bans or taxes on single-use plastics. But plastics industry groups are betting on a technology known as chemical recycling to break down any type of plastic into its raw components and turn it into fuel or plastic that is just as good. Chemical recycling has many advantages, e.g. we reduce the amount of waste, we do not have to produce materials from scratch or waste non-renewable resources, we do not need additional space for storing plastic waste and we are able to reduce the area of ​​existing landfills. So it may turn out to be more beneficial for the environment. Plastics recycling is failing, and the industry is betting big on a technology called chemical recycling to try and save it. So can chemical recycling help our plastic problem? Watch the full video here: https://t.co/0uDzfiPF7k pic.twitter.com/rQPPxobUKb — CNBC (@CNBC) January 3, 2023

The New Year started with the IMF Chief Georgieva warning that the global economy faces ‘a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind’. German PMI German PMI data pointed at a faster than expected contraction in manufacturing activity in December, while the European manufacturing PMI came in at 47.8, in line with expectations. European markets This being said, trading in European markets was rather optimistic on the first trading day of the year, as European nat gas futures eased on mild weather. Forex The US dollar index kicked off the year on a subdued note, letting the dollar-yen tip a toe below the 130 mark. The EURUSD however, couldn’t build on gains above the 1.07 mark, while Cable remained steady-ish a touch above its 200-DMA, which stands near 1.2030 level. Gold Gold jumped to $1843 per ounce despite the positive pressure on the yields recently, while oil remained offered into the 50-DMA, which stands a touch below the $81 per barrel mark. Bitcoin Trading in Bitcoin remains boring. US data and OPEC On the economic data front, we will watch FOMC minutes, US jobs data, and OPEC meeting this week. EV On individual stocks front, carmakers announce their Q4 deliveries. Tesla hit a fresh record, but the number of cars delivered last quarter fell short of expectations, while Rivian reportedly doubled production in the final quarter of 2022 to hit its 25’000 yearly target. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:17 IMF warns that 2023 could be tougher than 2022 1:31 Chinese data disappoint 2:42 But European stocks remain bid 4:41 FOMC minutes & US jobs will give direction 6:07 US crude tests 50-DMA resistance 7:33 Tesla's record Q4 deliveries fall short of expectations Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #HappyNewYear #2023 #IMF #warning #economic #recession #China #Covid #energy #crisis #USD #EUR #JPY #Bitcoin #XAU #Tesla #Rivian #deliveries #FOMC #minutes #OPEC #US #jobs #data #NFP #DAX #CAC #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Tesla survived a difficult year, losing about $ 675 billion in market valuation. Car sales The company expected to "sell every car we make as far in the future as possible," Musk said as Tesla posted a near-record quarterly profit. Elon Musk's electric vehicle maker said Monday it delivered about 1.31 million vehicles last year, about 40% more than in 2021. The company would need to deliver more than 1.4 million vehicles to meet its initial target of increasing deliveries by 50% or more. From analyst estimates compiled by FactSet, as of December 31, 2022, Wall Street expected Tesla to report deliveries of around 427,000 in the final quarter of the year. Estimates updated in December and included in the FactSet consensus ranged from 409,000 to 433,000. Tesla said changes to manufacturing and distribution practices to help lower vehicle costs led to more cars in transit at the end of the quarter. Tesla car prices Strong vehicle prices helped Tesla generate nearly $3.3 billion in quarterly profit for the three months ended September, beating the expectations of analysts surveyed by FactSet. That's not much compared to the company's record quarterly profit of over $3.3 billion, set in the first quarter. Tesla has repeatedly raised the price of its vehicles as parts have become more expensive and new cars hard to come by due to supply chain bottlenecks. Tesla cars averaged about $57,000 in the third quarter, up from about $49,000 a year earlier, analysts polled by FactSet estimated, boosting company revenue and mitigating lower-than-expected third-quarter deliveries. Moreover, the automaker may have to cut vehicle prices by $1,800 to $4,500 from Q3 2022 levels. Shareholders Musk, Tesla's largest shareholder, sold over $15 billion in Tesla stock this year, indicating that at least some of the proceeds will be used to fund his $44 billion Twitter deal. Some investors fear he may have to sell more to close the deal. The billionaire entrepreneur said the company's board of directors is considering the idea of buying back Tesla shares and it is likely that the company will pursue a "significant buyout". He put forward the idea of a buyout of around $5 billion to $10 billion in 2023. Read next: The Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) Will Impose A Fine Of $2.2 Million On Tesla Inc| FXMAG.COM Problems The company idled its car factory in Shanghai on multiple occasions, early on because of local pandemic restrictions, then again in December as it faced a wave of Covid-19 infections among workers and suppliers. In October, Musk characterized Tesla as "recession-proof", saying, "We're going to pedal to the metal whether it's raining or shining. So we're not reducing our production in any significant way, whether in a recession or not." But now, Musk suggested exacly last month that the higher interest-rate environment was hurting vehicle demand. In a year-end sales push, Tesla offered discounts to many buyers who agreed to take delivery of vehicles before January. Demand problems will continue until Tesla introduces a cheaper vehicle in large numbers, which is not on the horizon any time soon. Tesla share price Shares have been falling since December 9. The biggest decrease in the month and the beginning of the year was recorded on December 27, 110, at the level of 109.10. It then surged to above 120. The new year started with Tesla stock price below 120 (118.93). So the trade will be on the tenth day around 120. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

US stocks were unable to hold onto earlier gains as restrictive policy and recession fears remained front and center for investors. Discount buying triggered another bear market rebound that didn’t last long at all. It is too early to start betting on a Fed pivot this year and that should make this a difficult environment for stocks. China China’s reopening and bets that PBOC will cut rates in the first half of the year should help keep Chinese stocks supported. ​ After a couple of bad years, Wall Street is wondering if Chinese stocks could outperform if their Covid reopening continues without any major disruptions. ​ China still has to deal with a struggling property market, but hopefully, it will show signs of improving on more support measures. Tesla Demand woes are killing Tesla shares. ​ The fourth quarter update was very disappointing as they are struggling to deliver cars. ​ Tesla is battling rising competition, a weakening consumer, and lower gas prices. ​ Tesla might be a long-term hold for many investors, but right now it seems the path of least resistance is lower for Tesla’s stock price. Bitcoin Happy Birthday, Bitcoin! It should come as no surprise that this teenager of an asset class has constant mood swings. ​ Much attention is going to Sam Bankman-Fried’s day in court which is expected to have him plead not guilty to an eight-count fraud and conspiracy indictment. Read next: 2023 Predictions: Peter Garnry - Our target for S&P 500 is still around the 3,200 level sometime during the year leading to an overall drawdown of around 33% from the peak in early 2022 | FXMAG.COM This is still a difficult time for crypto as everyone waits to see which will be the next crypto company to fail. ​ Regulation is taking its time but guidelines should start to take hold this year. ​ A top US regulator delivered a joint warning on crypto activities, which did not contain any new risks. ​ Bitcoin appears anchored but it is still not clear when we will test and possibly make a new bottom. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Summary:  The share price of Tesla plunged 12% following releasing weak deliveries in December. Apple’s market value fell below US2 trillion for the first time since March 2021 on weakening demand for its MacBooks, the Apple Watch and Airpods. The USD bounced by 1% against EUR and GBP. Crude oil slid by 4% on higher OPEC daily production. On Wednesday, all eyes are on the US ISM Manufacturing Index, JOLTS job openings, and the December Fed minutes. What’s happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) slid with significant weakness in Apple and Tesla U.S. equities started the year weaker on Tuesday. S&P 500 slid 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 lost 0.8%. Energy, plunging 3.6% on a 4% decline in crude oil, was the worst-performing sector within the S&P 500 Index. Communication Services, up 1.4%, advanced the most, with Meta (META:xnas) up 3.7% and Alphabet (GOOGL:xnas) up 1.1%. Nasdaq 100 was dragged down particularly hard by the declines in the share prices of Apple (AAPL:xnas) which accounts for 13% index weighting and Tesla (TSLA:xnas) which accounts for 2.5% index weighting. Tesla fell by 12.3% after releasing weak December delivery data. Apple slid 3.4% on a Nikkei report suggesting potential weak demand for the company’s products, taking the company’s market value down below USD2 trillion, the first time since March 2021. Apple accounted for 13% in Nasdaq 100 weighting. Tesla plunged 12.3% on weak December deliveries Tesla announced Q4 deliveries of 405.3K coming short of the estimate at 420.8K and significantly below the 439.7K units produced in Q4. In this article, Peter Garnry suggests that Telsa is facing problems of elevated battery costs that forced the EV maker to raise prices and excessive electricity costs in Europe that weighs on demand. Some demand in the U.S. in Q4 might have been pushed into Q1 2023 by the EV purchase tax credit in the Inflation Reduction Act. The share price of Tesla plunged 12.3% on Tuesday, its largest decline by percentage since September 2020. Apple fell by 3.4% on reportedly weakening demand for its MacBooks, the Apple Watch and Airpods A Nikkei article reported that “Apple has notified several suppliers to build fewer components for Airpods, the Apple Watch and MacBooks for the first quarter, citing weakening demand”. The article stirred up concerns among investors about the demand outlook for the products of the consumer electronics giant. US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) rallied with yields on the 10-year 14bps richer to 3.74% Bids returned to Treasuries as German Bunds jumped in price following German CPI coming in softer than expectations.  Yields on 10-year German bunds fell by 6bps on Tuesday and by 18 bps since the New Year. On the tape, former Fed Chair Aland Greenspan and former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said a not-too-severe U.S. recession was the most likely outcome. The 10-year segment led the rally, with yields 14bps richer to 3.74%. Yields on the 2-year fell by 6bps to 4.37%. The corporate issuance calendar was busy with 19 investment grade bonds for a total of over 30 billion issued on Tuesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIZ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) On its first day of trading in 2023, Hang Seng Index opened lower but rallied to post a 1.8% gain. Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH.I) climbed 1.9%. Chinese telco, consumer, electricity utilities, pharmaceuticals, autos, and Macao casino operators led the charge higher. It is widely expected that the border between the mainland and Hong Kong will be reopened as soon as January 8, 2023. In addition, a rebound in mobility data in some large Chinese cities, such as Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Beijing helped market sentiment. Investors brushed off the weak December NBS PMI reports released during the holiday and the Caixin PMI on Tuesday and the seemingly inevitable surge and spread of Covid inflections during the initial stage of relaxation of pandemic containment in China to focus on the improved economic outlook in mainland China and Hong Kong for 2023. Southbound flows into Hong Kong amounted to a decent HKD4.25 billion, of which buying in Tencent (00700:xhkg) accounted for HKD1.58 billion. Following the release of strong December sales, BYD rose by 4.7%, Li Auto by 10.5%, and Xpeng by 7.8%.  China’s CSI 300 Index gained 0.4%, with computing, communication, media, and defense names gaining the most. FX: the dollar gained 1% versus EUR and GBP As Saxo’s Head of FX Strategy, John Hardy, put it in his note, USD wakes up with a bang ass US market come back on line. Softer CPI prints from Germany triggered selling in the Euro and saw EURUSD down 1%. The pound sterling also slid 1% versus the dollar. The Yen held on relatively well, after briefly strengthening to 129.52, finished the day little changed at around 131. Crude oil fell nearly 4% on higher OPEC production WTI crude fell 3.9% on Tuesday following production by OPEC countries increased by 150,000 barrels to 29.14 million barrels a day, partly due to higher output from Nigeria. The warmer-than-normal weather in the U.S. and Europe also weighed on the market sentiment. What to consider? German December CPI softer than expectations Germany released headline CPI at 8.6% Y/Y below the street estimate of 9.0%Y/Y and November’s 10.0%. Germany’s EU Harmonized CPI came in at 9.6% Y/Y, falling from the 10.2% expected and 11.3% in November. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, JOLTS Job openings, and the December FOMC minutes to focus on Wednesday We have a busy economic calendar in the U.S. on Wednesday. The ISM Manufacturing Index is generally considered by investors as one of the key indicators in the recession question. The Bloomberg consensus estimate is calling for a further decline into the contractionary territory to 48.5 in December from 49.0 in November. JOTLS job openings (consensus 10.05 million; Nov 10.33 million) will also be closely monitored as the data series was highlighted by Fed Chair Powell almost every time in his assessment of the state of the labor market and monetary policies. Finally, at 2pm US EST, we will have the minutes from the Fed’s December FOMC meeting. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Market Insights Today: – Apple and Tesla plunged; ISM, JOLTS, and Fed minutes the focus on Wednesday - 4 January 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  US equities got off to a choppy start in 2023 with a slightly weak session yesterday, but with notable weakness in high profile companies like Tesla after it reported weak Q4 deliveries, while market cap leader Apple posted a new cycle low. The US dollar traded was choppy in volatile trading but generally ended the day on the strong side, even as US treasury yields dropped. Gold chopped back and forth but surged back toward yesterday’s highs overnight.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures started the year’s first day of trading yesterday with the element that they had plenty of in 2022, namely volatility. The index futures started rallying in the beginning of the session helped by positive sentiment in Europe and China trading up as much as 1.2% at the intraday high, but spillover effect on sentiment from the slide in Tesla shares and related technology stocks took S&P 500 futures down 0.4%. The intraday price range in S&P 500 futures was more than 2%. The first important macro events of the year are the ISM Manufacturing and the JOLTS Job Openings report for December which could move interest rates and inflation expectations and thus US equity futures later in the session. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index rallied for the second straight session in 2023 rising by 1.8%. Hang Seng TECH Index surged 3.4%, led by Alibaba (09988:xhkg)  soared more than 7% following the news that the Chinese authorities approved an increase in registered capital of the consumer finance unit of Ant Group. Shares of Chinese developers and management services providers climbed on anticipation of state support from the state-owned Economic Daily emphasizing the importance of the real estate sector to the economy in its editorial. Longfor (00960:xhkg) and Country Garden Services (06098:xhkg) each jumped around 10%, being the top performers of the Hang Seng Index. Sunny Optical (02382:xhkg), a supplier to Apple (AAPL:xnas), plunged 12% on analyst downgrades and a Nikkei report that “Apple has notified several suppliers to build fewer components for Airpods, the Apple Watch and MacBooks for the first quarter, citing weakening demand”. CSI 300 is unchanged. FX: Yesterday’s USD rally moderates. AUD surges on possible end of Chinese coal ban The US dollar surged yesterday for no readily apparent reason, even as US treasury yields dropped and risk sentiment was strong early in the day. The rest of the day saw very choppy action that suggests currency traders are struggling to find their feet in 2023, although the greenback generally ended the day stronger than where it started ahead of the first important macro data of the year this Friday. Overnight, the Aussie surged sharply, erasing the AUDUSD losses yesterday and seeing AUDNZD to new local highs as Chinese authorities discussed a partial lifting of the Australia coal import ban. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) Crude oil futures, led by gasoline and diesel, turned sharply lower during its first full day of trading with the early 2023 focus being centred around a short-term deterioration in demand as China struggles with Covid-19, milder weather reduces demand for heating fuels and the IMF’s latest warning that one third of the world may suffer recession in 2023. OPEC increased production by 150k b/d last month according to a Bloomberg survey as Nigeria, currently producing below its quota, ramped up production. US production meanwhile is expected to rise by just 600k b/d in 2023, with the pre-pandemic record peak at 13m b/d remaining out of sight. On the supply side Russia’s December shipments of oil slumped to the lowest for 2022 driven by storm disruptions and a shortage of vessels. In Brent, the uptrend from early December looks challenged with a break below $81 signalling further loss of momentum, initially towards $79.65.  Gold (XAUUSD), silver (XAGUSD) and platinum (XPTUSD) This trio of investment and semi-industrial metals, led by gold’s break higher, are the only commodities trading in the black this week. On Tuesday, sudden dollar strength was being offset by a sharp fall in US treasury yields, both highlighting weak risk sentiment at the beginning of a new trading year. In general, we are looking for a price friendly 2023 for investment metals supported by recession and stock market valuation risks, an eventual peak in central bank rates combined with the prospect of a weaker dollar and inflation not returning to the expected sub-3% level by yearend. However, in the short-term continued dollar strength - as risk appetite elsewhere suffers - may prove too hard to ignore, thereby raising the prospect for a correction and better buying levels. Focus on today’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s US job report. Key support in gold at $1801 with trendline resistance at $1852 being followed by $1878. Yields on US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) fall sharply on US first trading day of 2023 US Treasury yields fell sharply all along the curve, but fell the most at the longer end of the curve, with the 10-year yield benchmark down almost 15 basis points to 3.73%. Some of the move was in sympathy with European yields, which dropped on a much softer than expected German CPI print.  The 10-year US Treasury yield level to watch to the upside is perhaps the 4.00% area ahead of the 4.34% high from October, which is a 15-year high. To the downside, the cycle lows below 3.50% (intraday cycle low was 3.40%) are the focus, with the first major test of the US Treasury market up this Friday on the release of US jobs data and the December ISM Services index and next week on the December CPI report on Thursday, January 12. What is going on? US House Republicans so far failing to elect new Speaker of the House A minority of more Trumpist-leaning Republicans are holding back the election of Kevin McCarthy to become the next Speaker, as he failed to win approval after three rounds of voting yesterday. The House is unable to conduct any kind of business until a new Speaker is elected, and the degree of dysfunction in the House over the next two years will likely be determined by the identity of the leader in the house. Inflation is cooling down in Germany Germany December CPI rose 8.7 % year-over-year against prior 10.4 %. The monthly decline is astounding: minus 1.0 % from November to December. In parallel, inflation also slowed down in Germany’s largest state by population – North Rhine Westphalia – with CPI out at minus 1.0 % month-over-month. This matters because it is one of the major industrial states. The drop is partially explained by the drop in energy prices and the one-time government support to reduce the gas bills of households and SMEs. This means the decline in inflation may not last. It will highly depend on the evolution of energy prices this winter. But this is a welcome figure as we kick off the new year. Officials in China discuss easing Australia coal import ban Bloomberg is breaking this story, citing sources familiar with the matter, which claim that bureaucrats are proposing allowing a few major coal consumers in China to resume imports as soon as April 1. The Australian dollar jumped sharply in response, as did Australian coal exporters, and even major miner BHP Billiton posted a strong session overnight. Tesla shares plunge 12% to lowest levels since August 2020 Tesla had a bad start to 2023 as the EV maker reported worse than expected Q4 deliveries Tuesday night trailing the productions figures for the quarter expanding the gap between production and deliveries to a new high. Investors are speculating whether Tesla is facing a demand issue and the recent implemented discounts to entice buyers are still in place suggesting Tesla is willing to sacrifice its operating margin at the expense of keeping up demand to maintain high utilization of its factory capacity. Read our take on Tesla in yesterday’s equity note. What are we watching next? November JOLTS Job openings up later, FOMC Minutes up tonight The JOLTS survey of job openings dropped in October back toward the low for 2022 at just above 10.3M as the November release today is expected to post a new cycle low near 10.0M. Still, these numbers are far north of the previous pre-pandemic record near 7.5M. The FOMC minutes tonight may not move markets much, but are worth watching for where FOMC members are expressing their inflation concerns. Earnings to watch The earnings calendar is light in the first week of the new year, but in a couple of weeks the first Q4 earnings releases will begin to be released. The Q4 earnings season will continue its focus on margin pressures related to input costs on employees and raw materials including energy. This week’s earnings focus is Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) and Conagra Brands, with WBA expected to -3% revenue growth y/y for the quarter that ended on 30 November adding to the series of quarters with negative revenue growth. Conagra Brands is expected to deliver 7% revenue growth y/y for the quarter that ended on 30 November as the manufacturer of packaged foods is able to pass on inflation to its customers. Thursday: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, Constellation Brands, RPM International Friday: Naturgy Energy Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0745 – France December Flash CPI 0815-0900 – Eurozone final December Services PMI 0930 – UK Nov. Consumer Credit/Mortgage Approvals 1500 – US Dec. ISM Manufacturing  1500 – US Nov. JOLTS Jobs openings 1900 – US FOMC Minutes 2130 – API's Weekly Crude and Fuel Inventory Report 0145 – China Dec. Caixin Services PMI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 4, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)