technical market outlook

Crypto Industry News: Qatar has taken little action against crypto companies violating the ban announced in 2019. This opinion was expressed in a Wednesday report by the global anti-money laundering authority. The Financial Action Task Force called on the Central Bank of Qatar to be more proactive in identifying and sanctioning virtual asset service providers. Thus, it reminds about companies that have violated the ban, and the report itself accuses the country of being too lenient towards financing terrorism.   "Qatar has failed to demonstrate that competent authorities proactively identify and take enforcement action for potential violations of this ban" in the Financial Center Regulatory Authority's 2019 ban case. No formal sanctions have so far been imposed on an individual or legal entity for violating the ban ( even where an unlicensed cryptocurrency provider operating in the country was allegedly founded.   There are serious inconsistencies between Qatar's risk profile and the type and extent of the person/company being prosecuted and convicted for terrorism financing activities" - said the FATF, a Paris-based global watchdog that seeks to monitor and curtail dirty money flows. Qatar, although less crypto-friendly than its neighbors, e.g.   The United Arab Emirates, it was the governor of the country's central bank that pointed to the potential benefits of faster payments. He added that QBC is investigating the digital Rial. In a statement posted on its website, the central bank said the assessment, which found the country met or largely met each of the forty technical requirements, "shows the state's commitment to combating illicit financing." Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair is down more than 6.5% since the local high was made at the level of $28,446.   The bears moved below 61% Fibonacci retracement as well and the local low was made at the level of $26,505. All the pull-backs were rather shallow and did not break any of the key technical levels. The down move is being backed up by momentum, which is back below the level fifty (negative sentiment prevails). The next target for bears is seen at the swing low located at $25,850. The intraday technical support is seen at $26,712 and the intraday technical resistance is seen at $27,192.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $29,254 WR2 - $28,640 WR1 - $28,255 Weekly Pivot - $28,028 WS1 - $27,645 WS2 - $27,415 WS3 - $26,803   Trading Outlook: The bulls broken above the gamechanging level located at $25,442, so now the mid-term outlook for BTC is bullish. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $32,350. As long as the level of 19,572 is not clearly violated, there is a chance for a long-term up trend to continue. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/325905

Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair had made the last swing low at the level of 1.2308 as the market is still under the bearish pressure, but the bulls have managed to retrace 61% of the last wave down and hit the level of 1.2540. The market is trading above the 50 and 100 MA already.   The intraday technical support is located at 1.2517. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart, which supports the bullish short-term outlook for GBP, however the extremely overbought market conditions had been hit, so the pull-back might occur any time soon.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.23581 WR2 - 1.23505 WR1 - 1.23473 Weekly Pivot - 1.23429 WS1 - 1.23397 WS2 - 1.23353 WS3 - 1.23277   Trading Outlook: A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the Weekly time frame chart 100 pips away from the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2778 might indicate the corrective cycle to the upside had been terminated. Any sustained breakout below the technical support at 1.2444 will be the first indication of stronger bearish pressure.

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has been seen getting away from the swing low located at the level of 1.0636 and the recent local high was made at the level of 1.0780, just above the technical resistance seen at 1.0761.   The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.0747. On the other hand, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0623 and the down move should resume as soon as the pull-back is done. There is no indication of the down trend to terminate or reverse yet. The market participants await the NFP-Payrolls data release that might trigger an increase in volatility.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.07387 WR2 - 1.07284 WR1 - 1.07229 Weekly Pivot - 1.07181 WS1 - 1.07126 WS2 - 1.07078 WS3 - 1.06975   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.  

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair grew "out of nowhere" again. And it was an impressive one at that. Take note that there was no significant news from the UK this week. If, for example, the Bank of England had made hawkish statements, the movement would have been understandable.   However, all the data that influenced the market came from overseas, and many of them favored the dollar. The situation with the euro is slightly different, which explains its growth. After all, yesterday and the daybefore that, several important reports were released in the EU, two speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde took place, and the ECB minutes were published. But it is very difficult to say why the pound is rising again.       However, we did experience a good intraday trending movement yesterday, which made the trading signals strong and profitable. Initially, the pair consolidated below the range of 1.2429-1.2445 and managed to move down by about 20 pips, allowing for setting a stop loss at breakeven and leaving the trade without losses when the pair consolidated above the mentioned range. Based on the buy signal, long positions should have been opened, and the price subsequently surpassed the nearest target level of 1.2520.   The trade should have been manually closed in the evening, resulting in a profit of about 75 pips, which is quite good. But let's reiterate: it is convenient to trade when there is a strong and trend-driven movement. It is necessary to avoid flat markets.     According to the latest report, non-commercial traders closed 8,100 long positions and 7,100 short ones. The net position dropped by 1,000 but remained bullish. Over the past 9-10 months, the net position has been on the rise despite bearish sentiment. The pound is bullish against the greenback in the medium term, but there have been hardly any reasons for that. We assume that a prolonged bear run has begun. COT reports suggest a bullish continuation. However, we can hardly explain why the uptrend should go on.   Both major pairs are in correlation now. At the same time, the positive net position on EUR/USD shows the end of the uptrend. Meanwhile, the net position on GBP/USD is neutral. The pound has gained about 2,300 pips. Therefore, a bearish correction is now needed. Otherwise, a bullish continuation would make no sense even despite the lack of support from fundamental factors. Overall, non-commercial traders hold 57,600 sell positions and 69,200 long ones. We do not see the pair extending growth in the long term.     In the 1-hour time frame, the pair has started an upward movement, surpassing all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. The pound doesn't exactly have grounds to buy the pound, which remains heavily overbought. However, take note that the market has the right to trade regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. The only thing I can say is that the movement doesn't correspond to the nature of the reports and news.   On June 2, trading levels are seen at 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2589, 1.2666, 1.2762. Senkou Span B (1.2550) and Kijun-sen (1.2375) lines may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them. A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.   There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits. Today, the event calendar is empty in the UK.   On the other hand, the United States will release its highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports. We have no doubt that the market will react to them, and the reaction could be practically anything - it is currently impossible to predict the values of the reports. Indicators on charts:   Resistance/support - thick red lines, near which the trend may stop. They do not make trading signals. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are also strong lines. Extreme levels are thin red lines, from which the price used to bounce earlier. They can produce trading signals. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT chart is the size of the net position of each trader category. Indicator 2 on the COT chart is the size of the net position for the Non-commercial group of traders.  

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has been seen bouncing from the local low made at the level of 1.0675 and so far the high of the bounce was made at the level of 1.0732. The intraday technical resistance is seen at 1.0780, so bulls need to break out above this level in order to continue higher. Any breakout below the level of 1.0675 would sustain the bearish outlook and put the level of 1.0636 for a test (swing low). The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for EUR as the bulls are not able to move above the neutral level of fifty on the RSI indicator.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.07335 WR2 - 1.07121 WR1 - 1.06983 Weekly Pivot - 1.06907 WS1 - 1.06769 WS2 - 1.06693 WS3 - 1.06479   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.  

Georgieva also entered the topic of cryptocurrencies. She emphasized that in her eyes these are rather "speculative" assets, not currencies. This should not surprise us, because the institution managed by it has long approached bitcoin with reserve.   She opposed, for example, the adoption of bitcoin in El Salvador and the recognition by the government of President Nayib Bukele of cryptocurrency as a means of payment. The IMF claimed that the government's policy would worsen the country's economic situation. As we know, that didn't happen. On the contrary: Bukele's actions improved the image of his country and strengthened local tourism. This does not change the fact that the IMF will rather not seek to strengthen bitcoin adoption, because politicians cannot control cryptocurrencies to the same extent as CBDC. Georgieva also entered the topic of cryptocurrencies.   She emphasized that in her eyes these are rather "speculative" assets, not currencies. This should not surprise us, because the institution managed by it has long approached bitcoin with reserve. She opposed, for example, the adoption of bitcoin in El Salvador and the recognition by the government of President Nayib Bukele of cryptocurrency as a means of payment. The IMF claimed that the government's policy would worsen the country's economic situation. As we know that didn't happen.   On the contrary: Bukele's actions improved the image of his country and strengthened local tourism. This does not change the fact that the IMF will rather not seek to strengthen bitcoin adoption, because politicians cannot control cryptocurrencies to the same extent as CBDC. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance located at the level of $1,758 and hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement level located at $1,811. The local high was made at the level of $1,825 (at the time of writing the analysis).   The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,777, so please keep an eye on this level as the pull-back can happen soon. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart. Please notice, the Ethereum market rallied over 12% from the low made at the level of $1,620.      

Crypto Industry News: Over the past week, BTC miners have been sending their Bitcoins to exchanges en masse. It is worth adding that according to the Glassnode analytical platform, this is the largest BTC transfer to trading platforms in the last 5 years.   The cryptocurrency community is watching the actions of the SEC and sees the impact on the market. The miners' actions may be a preventive sale of their BTC, for fear of further declines. The first cryptocurrency established by Satoshi Nakamoto is still going strong. Miners are constantly mining more Bitcoins, and the value of this cryptocurrency is currently around $26,000 for one BTC.   Bitcoin is currently more than 60% away from its ATH. The outflow of BTC to trading platforms is very clearly visible and it is the largest transfer in the last 5 years. Nevertheless, the miners of the first cryptocurrency still hold 1.829 million BTC, which is worth about $50 billion in total. The BTC transfer was most visible after the actions of the American SEC regarding the Coinbase and Binance exchanges.   On June 11, experts from Glassnode reported a significant BTC transfer by miners in just a week. USD 70.8 million worth of Bitcoins entered the exchanges.   This is the third record BTC inflow, but lower by USD 30.2 million from the record USD 101 million recorded during the 2021 bull market.   Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen rallying over 17% from the low made at the level of $24,753, so the last local high made at the time of writing the analysis was located at $28,996. The bulls had broken above the technical resistance located at $28,446 and now this level will work as the technical support. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart, but the next target for bulls is still seen at the level of $32,350.    

Nike has entered into an agreement with the Chinese company AntChain to use its solutions based on blockchain. They are to be used to track shoes (and their users) that Nike equips with chips embedded in the sole For some time, however, some varieties of Nike shoes have been distinguished by chips in the sole, the purpose of which is to trace the origin of the shoes in order to be able to recognize and eliminate counterfeits at any time. It does not stop there.     Last Sunday, June 18, Nike announced a partnership with AntChain, a company belonging to the Alibaba group. The partnership is to use blockchain-based AntChain solutions to track Nike shoes. What's more, the chips in the soles are also supposed to contain dynamically encrypted NFC chips, so that tracking can be done remotely.   Interestingly, Nike has its own blockchain solutions, but concentrates their use in other areas. AntChain, on the other hand, offers its blockchain in a spine-chilling formula called Traceability as a Service (TaaS). Given the state of privacy protection in the Middle Kingdom, it is not surprising that this company can be considered an expert in the field of tracking.   Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair hit the key technical resistance located at the level of $1,930 after a 19% rally from the last swing low. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,777. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart, so please keep an eye on this level as the pull-back can haapen any time now.

Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has rebounced from the lows seen at the level of 1.2690 and is heading higher towards the swing high located at 1.2846. The 50 MA will provide the dynamic resistance for bulls around the level of 1.2804.   The momentum is strong and positive, so the short-term outlook for GBP remains bullish. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.2738 and 1.2690.    

Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has hit the technical support located at the level of 1.2698 and the bulls keeps trying to bounce higher to resume the up trend. The local low was made a few pips lower at 1.2684 and will act as the intraday technical support. The 50 MA will provide the dynamic resistance for bulls around the level of 1.2766 when the up trend is resumed.   The weak and negative momentum on the H4 time frame chart support short-term bearish outlook for GBP, but the bulls keep trying to move up. The pull-back might evolve into a full-blown correction if the level of 1.2684 is broken.

According to the latest study by software company ConsenSys, as many as 92% of people around the world have heard of cryptocurrencies. In a study conducted on a group of 15,158 people in 15 countries, it turned out that despite high awareness, understanding of blockchain technology is much lower.   This proves that digital currencies such as Bitcoin have become a household name. However, only 8% of respondents could confidently say that they knew the general concept of Web3, the decentralized Internet of the future. Although cryptocurrencies and blockchain have gained mainstream awareness, most people do not fully understand what it is all about and need to update their knowledge on the subject. The results of the study show that developing regions of the world show the greatest awareness and interest in cryptocurrencies. Nigeria, South Africa and Brazil lead on this issue. With 99% of Nigerian respondents showing crypto awareness and over 70% correctly defining what blockchain is.     Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of $31,002, but the Doji candlestick pattern was made at the top of the move on the H4 time frame chart. The market reversed and is now back inside the trading range. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $29,556 and the intraday technical resistance is located at $30,328.   Moreover, the bulls had broken above the technical resistance located at $28,446 and now this level will work as the technical support. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart and on a Daily time frame chart, so the bulls are ready for another wave up. The next target for bulls is still seen at the level of $32,350.  

The latest research shows that almost all countries are intensifying work on the creation of central bank digital currency (CBDC) systems, and some of them are close to completing this work. According to a report by the Atlantic Council think tank, based in Washington, 130 countries, which together generate 98% of the world's GDP, are exploring the possibility of introducing it. This is a huge increase compared to May 2020, when only 35 countries were considering implementing a CBDC.   The report shows that a record number of 64 countries are already at an advanced stage of exploring the CBDC system. They have implemented initial development, are conducting pilot tests or are even in the commissioning phase. Among them are 19 out of 20 G20 countries. Interestingly, the US seems to be the exception to this rule, with retail CBDC adoption progressing. This one seems to be stuck there at a dead end right now.     Technical Market Outlook: The bulls are clearly in control of the ETH market and they resumed the up trend again and made the last high at the level of $1,974. The market is approaching the key technical support located at the level of $1,930, so in a case of a bounce from this level the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $2,020. The momentum turned into positive on the RSI (14) indicator, so the short-term outlook for ETH remains bullish, however the market conditions on the lower time frames are now extremely overbought. The short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,777.  

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has broken above the short-term trend line resistance and is trading around the level of 1.0954 at the beginning of the new trading week. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.0974, at the local high. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.0935. Please notice, the momentum has hit the extremely overbought conditions again, so there is a confirmation of the bearish pressure on the lower time frame charts. In a case of a breakout lower, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0901 and 1.0876. Only a sustained breakout below the moving average dynamic support around 1.0900 would change the outlook to more negative.    

Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has bounced from the technical support located at the level of 1.2620 for the third time, so this level had been established as very important support level.   The recent momentum breakout into the positive territory on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bullish outlook for GBP, however, current momentum is neutral again. Only a strong reversal and a breakout above the local supply zone would change the short-term bearish outlook. Reversal confirmation comes with the level of 1.2826 breakout (100 DMA level).     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.27925 WR2 - 1.27651 WR1 - 1.27528 Weekly Pivot - 1.27377 WS1 - 1.27254 WS2 - 1.27103 WS3 - 1.26829   Trading Outlook: The bulls keep continuing the up trend towards the key technical resistance located at the level of 1.3163 and a breakout above this level is needed to extend the up trend towards the last Weekly swing high seen at 1.4248. Only a sustained breakout blow the technical support seen at the level of 1.1775 would change the outlook to bearish.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/336146

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the key technical resistance located at 1.0834 and is heading towards the 100 MA on H4 time frame chart located at 1.0887. The big Head & Shoulders pattern on the H4 time frame chart extends the market drop the downside with a potential target seen at the level of 1.0636 (H&S measurement), however, now is the time for a pull-back. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.0841 and the intraday technical resistance is located at 1.0893. The strong and positive momentum on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bullish outlook for EUR.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.08599 WR2 - 1.08348 WR1 - 1.08265 Weekly Pivot - 1.08097 WS1 - 1.08014 WS2 - 1.07846 WS3 - 1.07595   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might be terminated at the level of 1.1286 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level when it is hit, so please keep an eye on this level and the way the market participants (bulls and bears) will deal with it.