tech stocks

Say something hawkish, I'm giving up on you

By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  

The week started on a positive note on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. Equities in both Europe and the US gained on Monday. The tech stocks continued to do the heavy lifting with Nvidia hitting another record. The positive chip vibes also marked the European trading session; the Dutch semiconductor manufacturer ASML regained its status as the third-largest listed company in Europe, surpassing Nestle, thanks to an analyst upgrade. 

Moving forward, the earnings announcements will take the center stage, with Netflix due to announce its Q4 results today after the bell. The streaming giant expects to have added millions more of new paid subscribers to its platform after it scrapped password sharing last year.  

Away from the sunny US stocks, the situation is much less exciting for China. Right now, the CSI 300 stocks trade near 5-year lows and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong are

Will Stocks Continue Their Rally?

Will Stocks Continue Their Rally?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 13.12.2021 15:37
  The S&P 500 index got back above the 4,700 level on Friday after gaining almost 1%. The only way is up now? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video. Nasdaq 100 Remains Close to the 16,400 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index got back to the 16,400 level last week. It is the nearest important resistance level, marked by some previous local highs. Tech stocks remain relatively weaker, as the Nasdaq 100 is still well below the Nov. 22 record high of 16,764.85. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely slightly extend its last week’s advances this morning. However we may see a short-term profit-taking action at some point. There have been no confirmed short-term negative signals so far, and we may see an attempt at getting back to the late November record high. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open slightly higher this morning but we may see a consolidation above the 4,700 level. Our short-position is very close a stop-loss level, and we’ll close it if it breaks above it again. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Metaverse Tokens Sink After Holiday Crypto Rally

How deep can the crypto market fall?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.12.2021 08:59
The cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell 1.2% over the past 24 hours to $2.21 trillion. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index reacted rather sharply, losing 6 points to 23 and slipping back into extreme fear territory, remaining in the lower half of the scale for over a month.Among the top coins, Solana (+3%) and Tera (+6%) fared best, while Polkadot (-3.8%) Cardano (-3%) fared worst. Bitcoin, which is sensitive to demand from US tech stocks, has lost more than 2% in the past 24 hours to $47.5K. Its rate continues to walk around the 200-day average, reflecting either indecision or a balance of power between buyers and sellers. At the same time, this line itself has reversed downwards, and the RSI on the daily charts remains near the oversold area. Both of these indicators point to a possible failure of the price shortly. A bearish scenario could bring bitcoin back to 40K or even 30K fairly quickly if we see another episode of margin liquidation. Large long-term buyers are unlikely to return before the price drops to $20K. Further evidence that the bears own the initiative in cryptocurrencies - ETHUSD is holding below $4000, confirming the shift from a rising to a downtrend in the last month. Should the sell-off intensify, potential buyers of Ether should look to $3350. The rally started from this level in early October, and now the 200-day moving average is near this mark. A break below it runs the risk of a buyers’ capitulation and would quickly land the rate at $2700. A longer-term bearish target is seen in the $1300-1700 area, where long-term buyers are expected. The realisation of such a bearish scenario would return capitalisation to the $1 trillion area for the entire crypto market. This would be a slightly lesser failure than the top two currencies, as we believe that long-term investors are still looking for other projects outside of the two oldest currencies.Market Analyst live on the youtube channel.
Dogecoin (DOGE) allowed by Tesla (TSLA) in some way. BTC and ETH with decreases

Dogecoin (DOGE) allowed by Tesla (TSLA) in some way. BTC and ETH with decreases

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.01.2022 10:05
Pressure on US tech stocks was a significant theme in US trading yesterday, dragging cryptocurrencies down. The Crypto market capitalisation adjusted 1.1% overnight to $2.05 trillion. Bitcoin is losing 2% overnight, down to $42.8K, and ether is losing about 1.5% to $3.3K. Other top coins are declining with much less amplitude, as investment fund darlings rather than crypto enthusiasts have been hit the hardest. The Doge, which has become accepted as a means of payment for some (inexpensive) Tesla goods, deserves a separate story. Some have noted that goods for Doge are selling out even faster than for dollars. On this news, the coin is adding 18% today at $0.20, near the highs for the month. This news is a good illustration of crypto's continued penetration of corporate culture. On the other hand, Tesla won't necessarily hold these coins forever. People will be more active in spending their investments in DOGE. The technical view of the ETHUSD is disappointing because the selling intensified earlier in the week while it tried to break the 200 SMA again. The dip and consolidation below suggest a break of the bullish trend formed in May 2020, when the pair consolidated above this line. In a worst-case scenario, it could be a road to $1300-1700, about half of the current levels. It is doubtful that in this bear market cycle, the price of ether will lose 95% of its peak, as it did in 2018, which could completely nullify the rise from 2020. Bitcoin's disposition is no less worrisome. A death cross forms in it as the 50-day dips below the 200-day. At the same time, the price is below these averages, which reinforces the bearish signal. Attempts earlier in the week to form a rebound are encountering more substantial selling, further indicating seller pressure. The bearish picture in Ether and Bitcoin makes the entire cryptocurrency sector appear cautious in the near term. Individual growth stories, like DOGE, run the risk of quickly losing strength today when the overall backdrop turns negative.
Tech Stocks: (MSFT) Microsoft Stock, Facts About Microsoft

Tech Stocks: (MSFT) Microsoft Stock, Facts About Microsoft

Dividend Power Dividend Power 24.01.2022 15:51
As stocks have trended higher, especially the tech stocks, soared in 2021, we must be reminded that Microsoft is once again one of the top companies in the world by market cap. Apple is number one in the world by market cap, and Microsoft continues to be right behind them. In October of 2021, Microsoft had bypassed Apple as the largest company by market cap globally, but Apple soon passed them once again. Microsoft is not the same old company we had known back when Bill Gates was in charge. They have changed and have created a more diverse brand and product portfolio leading that change. Bill Gates stepped down as CEO in 2000 and officially left his full-time role in Microsoft in 2008. Since then, Microsoft has diversified its portfolio to include many more products, including gaming, cloud services, and making Office more business-friendly. Microsoft under Gates was known for two big things: Microsoft Office and Windows; that was the entire portfolio. Satya Nadella, the current CEO of Microsoft, has revolutionized the software company and has made it a software company with a vision of working with businesses, making gaming a priority, and expanding Azure, its cloud network. How Does Microsoft Make Money? A diverse portfolio of many more products allowed Microsoft to branch out from only MS Office and Windows software and adapt to software technology's future. Microsoft has adapted to the world of sales in its subscription-based software model. They sell their Microsoft Office products to businesses and consumers, creating a pay-as-you-go subscription-based business model. Productivity and Business In 2020, Microsoft Office made a significant amount of their revenue from subscription-based software compared to 0% in 2000. MS Office at one point brought close to half of the revenue in 2000, but Office is not even 25% of the revenue that Microsoft takes in now, having over $35 billion in revenue each year. The new software has been revolutionizing businesses. First, they pay for Microsoft Office, and with that, they get Microsoft OneDrive, Teams, and Dynamics. Teams is just a fancy business video chat software like Zoom Video Communications (ZM), but you can only have Teams with Microsoft business accounts. Dynamics is another software that helps with business computing. It helps with business efficiency and works with customer relationship management or CRM, but it is not one of the top competitors to Salesforce (CRM). However, it has over $3 billion in revenue. Windows continues to be one of the most widely used software globally. That domination is starting to penetrate other parts of their customers giving them opportunities to dominate other businesses. With the subscription-based model, they will continue to bring in significant revenue, earnings, and cash flow. Before the proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard (ATVI), LinkedIn was Microsoft's largest acquisition. It came in at $26 billion in 2016. Today, LinkedIn makes over $8 billion annually in revenue, up from the $3 billion pre-acquisition. LinkedIn has no major competitors and creates most of its money from job offer advertisements, other advertisements, and cash for LinkedIn premium. The Cloud Cloud software has become a bigger space for companies. It has led Microsoft to enter the space and business opportunities through the Azure Cloud system. Microsoft has thus gained a foothold in the cloud space. Azure Cloud system by Microsoft came out in 2009, and in 2021 the platform had become the second-largest cloud-based service in the world behind Amazon Web Services (AWS). With the cloud service, Microsoft's revenue grew by 48% in quarter 3 of 2021. It has reached a 21% market share and continues to gain more traction in the cloud space.   Azure consists of public, private, and hybrid cloud service products that help to power modern businesses. Dynamics and Azure are contributing to over 31% of Microsoft's revenue. In addition, customers are reaping many benefits through the cloud as it enhances the user experience with Microsoft products. The Gaming Industry Microsoft is becoming one of the leaders in the gaming industry. The Xbox is leading the charge with gaming, and Microsoft just made a deal to acquire Activision Blizzard for $69 Billion; if government regulators approve the sale, this acquisition will occur in 2023. The purchase would make Microsoft one of the largest gaming companies in the world. They would then own games like Call of Duty, War of Warcraft, and Candy Crush. In addition, making the deal would put them behind Sony and China's Tencent as a top-three gaming company globally. Microsoft is putting their company in a position to take on the Metaverse. Apple (APPL), Google (GOOG), Meta (FB), and Microsoft are creating technologies for the Metaverse. Satya Nadalla has emphasized that gaming technologies are part of the Metaverse. Is Microsoft a Good Stock to Buy? If we look at the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, we end up with an overvalued stock compared to Apple and Google. The P/E ratio is 32.0X, making it a bit more overvalued than Apple, which is trading at a valuation of 28.5X, as of this writing. They are close in the P/E ratio, but you would like to see the P/E ratio lower as an investor. Microsoft is a dividend growth stock that has raised the dividend for 19 consecutive years. The most recent quarterly dividend increase was $0.62 per share from $0.56 per share. The forward annual payout is now $2.48 per share with a conservative payout ratio of about 27%. The question is whether the hype of Microsoft is worth a buy as this company continues to create a diverse portfolio moving from one business to another. You can see the company dominating competitive markets like gaming and cloud systems. It has also innovated different types of software to help other businesses. Microsoft's future looks excellent if you are an investor, but the stock is likely overvalued based on the P/E ratio. In addition, the dividend yield is low at 0.84%. This value is less than the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index. Suppose individual stocks are too risky for you. In that case, an alternative is to try an excellent ETF or even a tech ETF to gain exposure to Microsoft and other overvalued tech companies. In many cases, ETFs are market cap-weighted, and Microsoft is one of the top holdings. You can always own a piece of Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Meta through an excellent ETF like an S&P 500 ETF. Microsoft is also a top 10 holding in some of the best dividend growth ETFs. These index funds will help you own a selection of some of the most profitable and most prominent companies in the US. Author Bio: Dividend Power is a self-taught investor and blogger on dividend growth stocks and financial independence. Some of his writings can be found on Seeking Alpha, TalkMarkets, ValueWalk, The Money Show, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, Entrepreneur, FXMag, and leading financial blogs. He also works as a part-time freelance equity analyst with a leading newsletter on dividend stocks. He was recently in the top 1.5% (126 out of over 8,212) of financial bloggers as tracked by TipRanks (an independent analyst tracking site) for his articles on Seeking Alpha. Disclaimer: Dividend Power is not a licensed or registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. He is not providing you with individual investment advice. Please consult with a licensed investment professional before you invest your money. 
Crypto and FOMC As Always Interact, Waiting for FED Decision and Tesla (TSLA) Reports

Crypto and FOMC As Always Interact, Waiting for FED Decision and Tesla (TSLA) Reports

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 26.01.2022 12:20
Today’s highly anticipated FED decision could have wide ranging implications across markets as it could alter the current state of economic policy and ultimately favour some markets over others. While there are several scenarios of what’s expected today from the US central bank, the most likely one seems to be a rate increase in March while maintaining QE for the time being , which many investors could see as a slight step back compared to the tone used by the FED recently. On the other hand, if the FOMC decides to surprise investors with a more hawkish than expected approach, it could lead to significant reactions across stock markets and cryptocurrencies even after the recent corrections we have already seen so far. The FED must be very cautious today as it appears to be stuck in a challenging situation, unable to ignore record inflation levels while also having a market that relies heavily on its fiscal policy and any misstep could have greater than expected consequences. Cryptocurrencies attempt to recover ahead of FOMC decision Cryptocurrencies and tech stocks have seen the majority of the volatility and pullbacks from recent uncertainty noticed across a wide range of markets to different extents. However, due to their exceedingly volatile nature, cryptocurrency prices moved significantly with the total market cap falling around $1 Trillion as the majority of top 100 tokens dropped around 20% reaching the lowest level in several months and shaking investor confidence in the sector. On the other hand, we are seeing an attempt to recover today with most tokens trading slightly higher ahead of the FOMC decision as some investors expect the US central bank to back off after seeing the massive reaction it’s recent announcements have had. While it remains to be seen whether the FED will go through with its plan, it is clear that a significant increase in volatility has the potential to scare many investors who may not be interested in projects for the long term and are mainly attempting to speculate on their prices for short term gains. Investors await Tesla earnings report While many investors will be focusing on the FED’s key decision today, earning season has also been a main topic of discussion with several major companies already publishing their reports. We have seen a variety of contrasting results with some exceeding expectations while others disappointed and ultimately reflected that in a significant share price drop. Tesla will be publishing it’s results today and investors will be looking closely to ascertain if the company is living up to the forecasts or if it also appears to be struggling with rising inflation and supply chain issues. A better than expected result could renew investor confidence in the company that has been able to impress many since being listed on the S&P 500 not long ago, while a disappointment could impact future prospects in addition to share price in the short term.  
(FB) Meta Shares Decreases by 20%, Netflix (NFLX) Shares Goes Down As Well (-30%)

(FB) Meta Shares Decreases by 20%, Netflix (NFLX) Shares Goes Down As Well (-30%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.02.2022 14:47
Meta (FB) shares lost around 20% post-market, which appears to be an overreaction and shows how wary buyers have become of the former growth leaders, the so-called FAANG stocks. The sharp declines of former crowd favourites could result from a reassessment of the medium-term outlook, for example, due to changes in monetary policy. But they could also be the next domino effect in an impending bear market. Netflix shares lost more than 30% in a few days following a disappointing report late last month and fell 50% from their peak in late November before fumbling for support from bargain hunters. PayPal was not technically in the FAANG big league but was punished just as much, losing around 25% intraday yesterday. After Facebook, Snap (-15%) and Twitter (-7%) also took a tangential hit. In our view, these are not isolated corporate stories but manifestations of broader underline currents. And in the coming days, we will have to determine whether we see a change in the bull market leaders or the first signals of a prolonged bearish trend. In a bear market, the weakest stars are the first to fall, and then the vortex of decline attracts more and more strong participants. The first domino is meme stocks, which had fallen methodically since June when the first signals emerged that the Fed was starting to prepare the markets for a wind-down. Then we saw a peak in many high-tech stocks in November when the Fed started cutting back on buying. By this logic, the downward spiral could pull more strong stocks into a downward spiral by the time interest rates rise, which is expected in March. Looking more broadly at the Nasdaq100 index, there is a rather worrying tech analysis picture. It is once again below its 200-day moving average. The high-tech-filled Meta retreated 2.4% after the report. The S&P500 and DJIA, however, look noticeably stronger on the technical analysis side. But it is worth watching closely how the trading will go this week and whether the buyers will reverse the negative trend of the former Nasdaq favourites. If so, we see a change in the leaders in the form of a rotation in value stocks and other names affected by the pandemic. But fears that the Fed is preparing to take money out of the financial system could force market players to take money off the table by selling blue chips.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Cryptomarket Seems Not To Lose That Much as Bitcoin decreases by 0.7%, ETH by 1.8% and Luna Gains 4.3%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.02.2022 08:28
Bitcoin fell 0.7% on Thursday, ending the day around $36,800. Ethereum lost 1.8%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 showed mixed dynamics from a 1.5% decline (Solana and Polkadot) to a 4.3% rise (Terra). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinGecko, added 0.2% to $1.79 trillion overnight. Bitcoin’s dominance index remained unchanged at 39.2%. Most cryptocurrencies were under pressure from declines in US tech stocks on Thursday. A weak report from Meta (Facebook) was published the day before, and the company’s shares lost more than 26% on the day, with the high-tech Nasdaq down almost 4%. The correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq stock index has recently reached a new high. The first cryptocurrency was also hit by a shutdown of mining farms in Texas, caused by bad weather and a snowstorm. The state leads bitcoin mining in the US, accounting for about half of all BTC hash rates. Bitcoin volatility has fallen to 15-month lows in recent days. With the comparative performance of traditional financial markets, bitcoin has managed to add around 2.9% since the start of the day on Friday, reaching 38,000 and again testing the upper limit of the downward channel. However, the first cryptocurrency will need to break the key $40,000 level to confirm bullish sentiment. Otherwise, the pressure on BTC will continue and may even intensify. The developers of the 14th cryptocurrency, Shiba Inu, have partnered with fast-food restaurant Wellu’s of Naples, Italy. The restaurant will use SHIB as a means of payment and has also fully rebranded its outlet in token style.
NIO - Will It Support The Rise Of Chinese Tech Stocks?

NIO - Will It Support The Rise Of Chinese Tech Stocks?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.02.2022 16:08
NIO stock gets a strong rating from latest Barclays research. NIO remains bearish and is down 25% year to date. NIO and other Chinese EV names remain in growth mode as the latest delivery data showed. NIO stock remains mired as it ended Monday virtually flat. The stock is down over 40% from three months ago as Chinese names see international investors flee on regulatory concerns. NIO Stock News It has been a turbulent time for holders of Chinese tech stocks. Alibaba's ANT Group spin-off set things off. Then the DIDI delisting not long after its IPO added to woes. Then a host of regulatory crackdowns was the final straw for international investors who bailed out of the names en masse. This is despite the EV names in particular remaining on track from a growth perspective as all have posted strong delivery data. While January deliveries slowed from December, the yearly growth rates still are impressive. January is traditionally the slowest month of the year in China though due to the lunar new year. NIO for example delivered 7.9% fewer vehicles in January versus December. On a yearly basis, January deliveries were 33.6% higher. This was replicated across many other Chinese EV names. Now Barclays has picked up the theme as it issues a bullish note this morning. "We believe that the rapid adoption of EVs around the world and booming EV sales have presented China’s EV makers a rare opportunity to not only take a sizable market share of the domestic auto market – the largest in the world with about 25-30% global share by units sold per annum – but also build a dominant position on the world stage." Barclays put a $34 price target on the shares. This does highlight the potential growth potential of Chinese tech stocks and the EV space in particular. We question whether investors will reenter, however, having been let down previously. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice... Ok, let's not have another George W. Bush moment! The point is a valid one. It will likely take more than analyst upgrades to tempt investors back to the space. Goldman, the king of investment banks, has previously been strongly bullish on NIO and to no avail. It will take a series of strong earnings and relative calm in terms of regulatory concerns to eventually tempt investors back. NIO Stock Forecast The recent spike lower did fill the gap from back in October 2020. The market just loves to fill gaps. We also note this spike lower created a shooting star candle, a possible reversal signal. There is already a bullish divergence from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as shown. The area around $27.34 is the first resistance. Getting back above indicates the bearish trend may finally be slowing. That would then bring NIO into a range-bound zone from $27 to $32. Only breaking $33.80 from January 3 ends the downtrend. Support is at $14 from the strong volume profile. Look for an RSI breakout as that could signal more gains. The RSI has been shrinking in range and may test an upside breakout. NIO 1-day chart
STX, RJF and BX were added to our Stock Market Watchlist in January

STX, RJF and BX were added to our Stock Market Watchlist in January

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.02.2022 22:39
The first quarter of 2022 is underway and it is time to highlight some of the top companies that have been analyzed by our QuantStock Fundamental system so far. Topping the list are three well-known companies, one in technology and two from the financial services side of the market with all three companies paying out dividends to investors. Our QuantStock Fundamental system is a proprietary algorithm that examines each company’s fundamental metrics, trends and overall strength to pinpoint quality companies. We use it as a stock market ideas generator and to update our stock watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the QuantStock Fundamental system does not take into consideration the stock price or technical price trends so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices. Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that always has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. Be sure to join our email newsletter for our system updates. Here we go with our 3 of our Top Stocks we added to our Watchlist from January 1st through January 31st of 2022: Seagate Technology Information Technology, Medium Cap, 13.8 P/E, 2.50+ Percent Dividend, Our Grade = B Seagate Technology (STX) has ascended our grading threshold to be included on the watchlist for the second consecutive quarter. STX is an information technology company headquartered in Ireland that specializes in technology hardware, storage devices and other cloud storage services. Highlighting their fundamental case over the past two quarters has been a rising earning per share (beating expectations three quarters in a row) as well as a rising dividend that is currently above 2.50 percent. On a technical basis, the STX price has been volatile since the beginning of the year like most other tech stocks. STX hit a low share price under $92.00 on January 25th but has rallied since to over $110.00 per share at time of writing. Raymond James Financial Inc Financials, Medium Cap, 15.84 P/E, 1.15+ Percent Dividend, Our Grade = B- Raymond James Financial INC (RJF) is next up and a well known financial company that has also made our watchlist for the second straight quarter. RJF, a medium-cap company ($28+ billion) is headquartered in Florida and provides financial services to investors and corporations throughout the US, Canada and Europe. RJF currently trades at an approximate 15.5 PE-Ratio and has had higher earnings per share for three straight quarters, beating earnings per share expectations in all three quarters as well. The dividend has continued on a growth path with the current quarterly dividend at approximately 1.15 percent at time of writing. Technically, the RJF share price has been surging higher recently and currently trading around the $115.00 price point at time of writing. In the short term, the stock is on the higher side of its trading range as evidenced by the ZScore of the 50-day moving average (2.38 standard deviations above the 50-day moving average currently). Blackstone Inc Financials, Large Cap, 15.8 P/E, 3.80+ Percent Dividend, Our Grade = C Blackstone Inc (BX) was added to our watchlist for the first time in January and is a financial large cap company ($154+ billion) located in New York, New York. BX provides global asset management services to investors, pension funds and institutional clients across a broad range of markets including real estate, bonds, equities and various credits. Blackstone’s stock is currently trading at a 15.8 Price/Earnings Ratio and the company has had earnings per share growth each of the past three quarters, beating expectations each time. The dividend has been on an upward trajectory with the current yield surpassing the 3.80 percent threshold at current prices. Technically, the BX share price has been on the rebound recently after dropping in late January to a low of $101.65. The stock has bounced back strong to a current price of above $130.00 per share and trading right above a support level. Article by InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list. Disclaimer: I currently own STX, RJF and BX stock at this time in ETFs and/or Closed-End Funds. I do not own direct shares of these companies at time of writing. This article and our system grading are for informational and educational purposes only, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold shares of any particular stock, ETF, company or security. All investors are always strongly advised to conduct their own independent research into any stock, ETF, closed-end fund or any other financial instrument before making an investment decision. authors are not registered investment advisors, do not make stock market recommendations, do not offer legal advice, do not offer tax advice and cannot be held liable for any losses occurred. All data is thought to be accurate as of time of writing but can and will change over time due to changes in the underlying securities price and data.   
In The Beginning Of This Week, The Eastern Tensions Is The #1 Topic

In The Beginning Of This Week, The Eastern Tensions Is The #1 Topic

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 14.02.2022 14:09
The news from US intelligence that the Russian aggression on Ukraine was a done deal spooked markets on Friday. While Russia denied it, the situation doesn't seem to be getting any better. How will markets react to further developments? Prepare for various options Markets are reacting and investors should prepare for potentially turbulent times. This is why we present 3 potential scenarios of the Ukrainian conflict and highlight key markets that may be affected. Watch these markets: Stocks – Russian banks, RTS and… Nasdaq VTB and Sberbank – the names of these institutions are nearly synonymous with sanctions on Russia. Little wonder these stocks are among top choices on the equity side. Investors may also focus on the diversified RTS Index where Sberbank has 14% share – the index has plenty of energy stocks as well and is down 30% from late 2021 highs. A less obvious choice is Nasdaq (US100). Why would US tech stocks react to the conflict in Europe? Well, since this market has its own share of problems (mainly Fed tightening), other bad news could impact investor sentiment even further. Commodities – Oil, Gold, Platinum, Palladium and Wheat Russia is the second largest exporter of Oil and the commodity is also a substitute for natural gas which has already been in tight supply in Europe. Gold has traditionally been a "top pick”for times of geopolitical uncertainty but we'd like to turn your attention to Palladium and Platinum – these are also precious metals but Russia is way more important here being the number 1 and 2 exporter respectively. Finally, both Russia and Ukraine are important producers of Wheat. FX – focus on USDRUB FX is fairly obvious – any conflict is detrimental for the Russian ruble even despite high oil prices and significant interest rate increases in Russia. On the other hand, USD attracts liquidity in times of distress so USDRUB could be the choice for investors here. 3 scenarios – invasion, tension and compromise The worst case scenario is the one of invasion – the one already hinted at by the US intelligence. Invasion means sanctions but actually the lack of sanctions is the key to reactions here (as the largest guns – like cutting off Russia from SWIFT – are supposedly off the table). Markets know that if Russia invades, forcing it to withdraw will be costly and that will feed uncertainty and fear. Critically negative for Russian stocks, negative for global stocks, positive for oil and precious metals and USDRUB. The most likely scenario could be the one of prolonged tension – Moscow can pose threats for as long as it achieves certain results (there’s a talk of autonomy or even referendums in Eastern parts of Ukraine). While politically complicated, this scenario can actually be a relief for the markets. For as long as invasion risk declines, this scenario is positive for stocks while being negative for oil, precious metals and USDRUB. Finally a scenario most would prefer – there's a sound compromise and Russian troops are ordered away from the Ukrainian border. This would be extremely positive for stocks (especially Russian banks and the Russian index) while negative for oil, precious metals and USDRUB. Unfortunately, this scenario also seems to be the least likely. XTB Research
EM Index Inclusions and Exclusions: India Thrives, Egypt Faces Challenges

Twitter-Elon Musk Interaction Shocks Investors, Price Of Crude Oil Fluctuates Again

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 05.04.2022 10:16
Twitter jumped 27% in a single move on the news that Elon Musk took a 9.2% stake in the company. The jump in Twitter shares gave an energy boost to the US equities, especially to the technology stocks. Tesla jumped 5.5% on record deliveries. But news regarding the war and oil prices were less encouraging. EU leaders will reportedly meet tomorrow and announce additional. Lithuania became the first European country to announce a total ban on Russian gas imports, and the possibility of other nations joining Lithuania in banning Russian oil and gas gives a boost to oil bulls. US crude quickly bounced above the $100 mark yesterday on escalating tensions in Ukraine. Elsewhere, US factory orders fell for the first time in ten months on supply constraints, the PMI data will give a hint on the European activity levels amid war in Ukraine, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate unchanged at the historical low of 0.10% for the sixteenth consecutive month. The Aussie rebounded more than 9% against the US dollar since the beginning of February, as iron ore prices jumped due to the Ukraine war, and the medium-term outlook remains positive for the Aussie, as long as commodity prices remain supported by geopolitical threat to the supply. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:25 Twitter rallied 27% as Elon Musk bought 9.2% stake 1:46 ... pulled US tech stocks higher 2:16 Tesla revealed record car deliveries 4:29 Oil rebounded from $100pb ahead of new Russia sanctions 7:00 Investing in rare earth metals 8:12 US factory orders, PMI data & RBA decision Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
US dollar pares gains in Asia | Oanda

Oh No Tech Stocks! Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Suffers Again As Netflix (NFLX) Hits Tech

FXStreet News FXStreet News 25.04.2022 16:44
NVDA stock stuck to the scrips and lost another 3% on Friday. NVDA stock is down 34% so far in 2022. NVDA stock is set for earnings next month but peer AMD is out next week. It's fair to say 2022 has not been a good one for investors in semi conductor stocks. After a surging year in 2021 investors would have been hoping the strong momentum was set to continue into 2022. With Wall Street largely backing up that thesis with a string of bullish price targets investors have been left holding some of the worst-performing stocks of the year so far. Added to the mix of course have been fresh headwinds in the shape of the Ukraine war as well as old problems around covid lockdown with factories in Shanghai once again feeling the pinch as covid struck the city hard. NVDA stock news Of course the main problem for the tech sector and one NVDA cannot avoid has been the speed with which bond markets have sold off and so pushed yields higher. Tech stocks are usually more sensitive to rising yields, even those with strong balance sheets and positive cash flows. A case of being guilty by association. This theme picked up speed last week and Fed officials stepped up the hawkish narrative ahead of their imposed blackout this week before May's interest rate decision. So at least that's one relief. Other problems will not be so easily solved with China in mounting states of distress over lockdown and factory closures, none of which will help NVDA or the semiconductor sector. NVDA again is guilty by association from the FaceBook and Netflix debacle. Netflix dropped a massive 36% after losing subscribers and now all the focus is on Facebook after something similar last time around. NVDA cannot avoid these tech spillover effects and the stock made a new low for the year on Friday breaking the psychological $200 level. Bank of America recently reiterates its ambitious $375 price target and said the sell-off may be overdone. However, it appears Mr. Market does not agree. Most Wall Street analysts fail to take a look at the broader market sentiment when issuing price targets and right now that is what is dominating the market. NVDA stock forecast Breaking $206 will likely set the tone for further losses on Monday and into the remainder of the week. However, this week is tech week earnings so these must be watched as that will drive investor sentiment to the tech sector for the next quarter. Apple, Google, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon are up this week on the earnings front so really this week is a make or break for the tech sector. The Fed hawks are in a blackout so some good earnings could help stem recent losses for the sector. There was the possibility of the strong downtrend ending once NVDA stock set a fresh high on Mach 29. But this needed the lows at $206 to hold which has now broken. All that has meant the March 29 high was another lower high when compared to all-time highs and now breaking $206 has put in place a lower low. $206 now becomes resistance. $178.66 is the next support, the low from July and below a move to sub $140 cannot be ruled out as the point of control lies there. Volume is now light until we get toward $140. These levels are targeted so long as NVDA stock sits below $206. Breaking back above $206 puts us on watch for a move to the 200-day moving average at $244. NVDA stock chart, daily
Inclusion of Government Bonds in Global Indices to Provide Further Support for India's Stable Currency Amid Economic Growth

Tech Stocks: Meta (FB Stock) Earnings Preview: Will Facebook do it again or will it save the tech space?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 27.04.2022 16:48
Meta (FB) stock is set to report earnings after the close on Wednesday. Last time out saw Facebook stock suffer a record market cap fall. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) started tech earnings on Tuesday. After last evening's contrasting earnings reports from Google and Microsoft it is time for the formerly known as Facebook now-called Meta (FB) to try and reassure nervous tech investors. That tension has been growing of late as we can see from the chart below showing Nasdaq volatility (VXN) at its highest since January 2021. VXN chart, daily Meta (FB) stock news: An opportunity for an upside surprise Ok, so we're now all no doubt familiar with what happened last time out for Facebook earnings. That has set the bar pretty low (a record fall tends to do that) and so we feel the risk-reward is skewed to the upside. We are not saying earnings will be good or FB stock will go up but merely that another weak set of numbers will likely be met with a chorus of more of the same. By contrast, if Meta somehow does turn things around it could see a sharp rally. Now, what is the market looking for from Facebook earnings? Earnings per share (EPS) is forecast for $2.51 while revenue is forecast at $28.2 billion. Facebook is sitting at the low post the February earnings so the stock is pretty beaten up and the sentiment is low, hence the reason for our risk-reward skew to an upside earnings surprise. Wall Street analysts have also set the bar pretty low after the last quarter. Read next: Meme coins: (SHIB) What Is Shiba Inu Token? Shiba Inu Coin Price. What Makes This Altcoin So Special? Clever Methods Used To Give High Crypto Returns | FXMAG.COM Meta (FB) stock forecast The pandemic lows from March 2020 are now firmly in sight at $137.10. Huge support there, but on the weekly chart both the MFI and RSI are oversold so giving further credence to our risk-reward thesis. Meta (FB) stock daily chart The big concern last quarter was the fall-off in advertising revenue. Apple's privacy changes hit the stock and revenue hard so it will be interesting to see how Facebook is managing this. Alphabet (GOOGL) alluded to advertising in its earnings conference call last night but in fact, Google revenues held up reasonably well. YouTube may have seen a slowdown due to the Russia-Ukraine war so can Facebook avoid a similar slowdown? But after the last set of earnings analysts appear to have set the bar much lower as mentioned. Facebook earnings growth forecasts are over 20% lower than previously and revenue is penciled in for just 8% growth. Facebook earnings are out after the close on Wednesday.
Tesla Will Struggle To Recover In The Coming Years

Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA got help from Shanghai to reopen Giga plant

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.05.2022 16:31
TSLA stock recovered on Friday to close up 3.7% at $902.94. Tesla stock has been under pressure from Musk selling the stock for Twitter deal. Reports surfaced of a club of billionaires urging Musk on for the TWTR deal. News just in from a Reuters report says that Tesla received help from Shanghai authorities to help Tesla reopen its Giga Shanghai factory. A letter seen by Reuters claimed to be from Tesla says that Shanghai authorities helped transport 6,000 workers to the factory and that authorities also helped to disinfect the plant. TSLA stock is trading at $906.45, up 0.5% in Tuesday's premarket. Tesla (TSLA) stock recovered a decent bit of ground on Monday as the US equity indices staged a late recovery to move higher. The Nasdaq was the big winner closing up 1.7% but naturally, Tesla being high beta, outperformed that and settled nearly 4% higher. The stock remains well below recent levels but may be set for a comeback as sentiment reaches extremely bearish levels, meaning a countertrend rally could be set to unfold this week. That is once we get through the Fed's interest rate decision. However, with most participants either short or neutral we expect something of a positioning rally Tuesday and Wednesday as investors rebalance from overly bearish positions. Yes, the Fed will hike 50bps but the market has this well priced in. The risk-reward is for a less than hawkish commentary and a strong equity market rally. The bad news and overly hawkish commentary are expected. Anything even slightly more accomodating will see a rush back to equities. Tech is one of the most beaten-down sectors so it will stand to have the strongest rally. Don't say you haven't been warned. Tesla (TSLA) stock news: Billionaires pitching Twitter deal Some interesting news over the weekend from an article in the Wall Street Journal. The paper reports that a group of billionaires has been urging Elon Musk to go ahead and purchase Twitter (TWTR). The Wall Street Journal reported cited a group including some former Paypal execs, of which Mr. Musk is one and Peter Thiel another one. It is not clear if this influenced Mr. Musk in any way and he does always appear to be very definite in his own views and motives. Twitter (TWTR) stock news: Musk reducing margin loan financing? TWTR stock also traded higher on Monday as it appears Elon Musk is in talks to reduce his collateral on the Twitter deal. It was revealed last week that Elon Musk had to put down a large stake of his Tesla holdings as collateral, but a Reuters report suggested he is in talks with Apollo Global Management (APO) and Ares Management (ARES) to reduce the margin loan element of his Twitter financing. This should naturally help relieve the pressure on Tesla stock and was partly the reason for Monday's strong rally. Both Apollo and Ares are private equity firms. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast: Potential for short-term bounce Very little of note to comment on here compared with last week. TSLA stock price remains in a medium-term downtrend but we have some potential for a short-term bounce. $975 is the key resistance. Tesla (TSLA) stock chart, daily Below is the 15-minute chart, showing more detail on a short-term basis. Witness the large volume gap from $920 to $975, so a move above $920 should then accelerate quickly to fill this gap. Tesla (TSLA) stock chart, 15 minute
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Awaiting Breakout from Consolidation Range

Asian equities follow Wall Street lower | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 10.05.2022 11:05
Asian markets fall, ex-China Wall Street suffered another day of recession fears overnight, with equities slumping once again, relying on Bostic’s comments to salve the wounds and cap US yield rises and the US dollar rally. The S&P 500 retreated by 3.20%, with the Nasdaq slumping by 4.29%, and the Dow Jones losing 1.97%. No sector was spared, notably, and despite high inflation, cash is increasingly becoming King. The rot has stopped in Asia, with US futures attempting to claw back some of the overnight losses as the bottom-feeders come out to play. S&P 500 futures have risen by 0.60%, Nasdaq futures have jumped by 0.95%, and Dow futures have gained 0.45%.   In Asia, equity markets initially tumbled in response to the Wall Street moves, in a rerun of yesterday. However, the recovery by US futures this morning seems to have taken the edge of the sell-off, with Asian markets recouping some of their earlier losses. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is now down just 0.44%, with South Korea’s Kospi down 0.47%,   Meanwhile, after a tough session yesterday, the intraday rally in sentiment has pushed mainland China exchanges well into positive territory. The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 have rallied by 1.0%. Hong Kong was pummelled earlier today but has also recovered somewhat, but it remains 2.25% lower for the day.   In regional markets, Singapore is still down by 1.20%, while Kuala Lumpur is unchanged, and Jakarta has slumped by 2.90% led by resource stocks. Taipei has retreated by 1.65%, while Manila is down 1.0% post-election, with Bangkok managing a 0.30% gain. Australian markets are also in retreat, the ASX 200 and All Ordinaries falling by 1.30%.   What makes the session odd is that markets with a high sensitivity to the China slowdown are the worst performing in Asia today, but mainland equities have rallied. The cynic in me suspects that China’s “national team” are busy today supporting the market, especially as covid-zero policies remain in force and nerves are rising around mainland property developers once again.   European markets will struggle to construct a bullish case today as well, also President Putin not declaring a was on Ukraine at yesterday’s May Day parades could be a straw to grasp. The question is really whether the bounce in US equity futures today is the start of a recovery or merely a corrective bounce to short-term oversold indicators. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Tesla Will Struggle To Recover In The Coming Years

Tech Stocks: Tesla Stock News and Forecast: As TSLA struggles, will the TWTR deal still go ahead at $54.20?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 12.05.2022 16:35
Tesla stock falls just over 8% on Wednesday. Twitter stock also falls and is now nearly 20% below its takeover price. TSLA still holding above $700 key support. Tesla (TSLA) stock suffered another humbling day on Wednesday as it yet again suffered more steep losses. As the broader equity market appears to crash, so too does the Tesla share price. This time it dropped by 8% to trade into the low $700s. $700 was the low seen back in February when market panic sold the Ukraine invasion news. Since then Tesla has recovered and held up well. Part of this was the reasonably good earnings quarter it posted. Now though a combination of macro factors and the Twitter (TWTR) deal are weighing on the stock. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Tesla Stock News The latest Tesla recall news hit yesterday, and that certainly helped the stock underperform all the main indices. Tesla has had to recall 130,000 vehicles due to CPU problems affecting the central display unit. There have been a number of recalls for Tesla vehicles this year, none of which seems to have hindered the share price. But this environment has turned more bearish, and any bad news is seized upon. This week we also have had news of a supply problem hindering production at Giga Shanghai, which comes just days after getting the factory back online after covid lockdowns. Adding to pressure on Elon Musk but not directly attributable to Tesla is a report from The Wall Street Journal saying that Elon Musk is facing a federal probe over delays in his filing for his initial stake in Twitter. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM We also note a report from Bloomberg saying smaller investors and hedge funds will get the chance to invest in the Twitter acquisition by way of special purpose vehicles that pool money together. The minimum investment is $5 million. This is not reassuring in our view. Still scrambling around for investors at this late stage in this type of market does not inspire confidence in the deal going through in its current guise. Hindenberg Research also released a report outlining similar concerns last week. Tesla Stock Forecast $700 remains the key support and target for now. As long as this holds then, there is the chance of a strong bear market rally. But it likely is getting too close for comfort now and should be triggered today. That level most likely has stops just beneath, so it could spike lower on a beak. That would then be the time to reassess. Both the Money Flow Index (MFI) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are close to oversold, and a break of $700 could put both into oversold territory. Breaking $700 brings $620 as the next support. Resistance and the bullish pivot is all the way up at $945 now. Read next: Where XRP price could bottom and how to reenter the market| FXMAG.COM Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily
Oanda Podcast: US Jobs Report, SVB Financial Fallout And More

What are investors afraid of? | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 18.05.2022 15:42
As it does every month, Bank of America conducts a survey of fund managers with nearly $900 billion AUM. Its results in the May edition seem very interesting, indicating the risks and actions of institutional investors. According to the survey, investors appear to be hoarding cash as the outlook for global economic growth falls to an all-time low and fears of stagflation increase. Cash holdings among investors have reached their highest level since September 2001, according to the report. A survey this month of investors managing $872 billion also found that hawkish central banks are seen as the biggest risk to financial markets. A global recession came in second, and concerns about stagflation rose to their highest level since 2008. The findings could show an uninspiring outlook for global equities, which are already on track for their longest weekly losing streak since the global financial crisis, as central banks turn off the tap on money at a time of stubbornly high inflation. The BofA report said the stock market may be in a bear market, but the final lows have not yet been reached. More interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are still expected, and the market is not yet in full capitulation. The BofA survey also found that technology stocks are under the most pressure since 2006. Overall, investors were most attuned to holding cash, and are least inclined to go for: emerging market stocks, eurozone stocks and bonds at the moment. The report also found that the so-called most crowded trades at the moment are long positions on oil (28%), short positions on U.S. Treasury bonds (25%), long on technology stocks (14%), and long on bitcoin (8%). According to the respondents, the value to which the S&P 500 index would have to fall for the Fed to start refraining from further monetary policy tightening falls at the level of 3529, i.e. about 12% below the current level. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Steady BoE Rate Expectations Amid Empty Event Calendar in the UK

European telecoms outlook for 2022 | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 19.05.2022 08:53
After years of heavy pressure on revenues in the telecom sector, we make a call for near-term revenue stabilisation. From an operational perspective, the main themes for the telecom sector are the build-out of 5G and fibre networks. To improve the relative position of the sector regulators should review their measures to provide a more level playing field Source: Shutterstock War has a limited impact on the telecom sector European- and US-based telecom operators are rather insulated from the conflict in Ukraine. Major operators have no sales in the region, the exception being VEON, which is largely exposed, since it is active in Russia and Ukraine. Telekom Austria had only 7.4% of its FY 2021 revenues coming from Belarus. For now, the impact of the war seems limited, with most companies maintaining their 2022 outlook. Typically, demand for telecom services grows in line with GDP. If a severe recession would hit the global economy, telecom operators and handset vendors probably have to adjust revenue expectations in line with GDP expectations, on average. In Europe, however, service revenues have historically already been under pressure because of strong competition. We do not foresee a substantial impact on the financial solidity of companies resulting from this crisis. The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare. State sponsored hackers could engage at some point in cyberwarfare, something the US government warns about. Hackers could try to impair (local) infrastructure, while telecom companies have to up their defenses. Interestingly, so far, we have seen limited impact from cyberwarfare that could possibly have been initiated as a part of the war in Ukraine. However, we are starting to see revenue stabilisation in a couple of markets. For example, the market leaders in the Dutch, French, Belgian and German markets are close to revenue stabilisation. This is mainly driven by new broadband products, which are often offered with mobile services in a bundled product. Restructuring programmes continue to modernise the back-office of the operators and to phase out legacy technologies. Once programmes are over, this could be a tailwind for profitability. Despite good traction from bundled products and new high ARPU fibre products, many incumbents have segments that see price pressure, often in the business segments. This explains why we see positive trends in the sector, while revenues are not showing strong positive growth rates. Domestic revenue trends European telecom operators Source: Company, ING Aiming for a level playing field The European Commission aims for gigabit broadband for all households as well as for a fast 5G mobile connection in populated areas, which should be reached by 2030. It also aims to rein in some large technology companies. It has published proposals for the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Markets Act (DMA) which should reduce the dominance of the large technology platforms and create a level playing field with other sectors in Europe. The EU member states and European Parliament said they welcome the proposals. These are now subject to formal approval by the two co-legislators before they will be applicable. Hopefully, the competitive position of telecom companies will improve as well at some point in the future. Competition has been promoted... and this has lowered prices for telecom services as well Regulation has seriously impaired the profitability of telecom companies through tariff measures (for broadband wholesale access and roaming tariffs). Competition has been promoted, with four mobile operators in many European countries. This has lowered prices for telecom services as well. Governments have raised a lot of money through spectrum auctions and often incentivised new operators entering the market. Finally, product differentiation has been difficult because of net neutrality regulations. As a consequence, free cash flow has been under pressure from both weaker revenues, as well as heavy investments and dividends. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM A case in point is Telecom Italia, which had a solid investment grade rating in 2005, but is now rated in high yield territory. The Italian market is characterised by heavy competition, while the company explains that its fixed network faces relatively high regulatory pressure from a multitude of measures. The company faces substantial pressure on revenues, as can be seen in the figure above. The interim result is that the company is investigating a break-up, having ramifications for the speed of the broadband roll-out in Italy. The downward pressure on credit ratings has been more widespread in the European telecom sector since most companies have already seen rating downgrades. This is illustrated in the table below. Downward rating pressure for European telecom operators Source: S&P Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM As a result, telecom companies have been at the wrong spot in the value chain, while companies that sell telecom equipment, media content or cloud storage have performed very well, as is shown in the figure below. While large technology companies have the means to invest in new (transatlantic) fibre networks, incumbents often can’t fund all of their network investments from their cash flows. In our opinion regulators should pay attention to a call by the European Telecom Network Organisation (ETNO) in which they ask for a fair contribution for the network investment costs from companies that extensively use broadband networks. Since 2015, unregulated firms did profit from internet with market cap. growth Source: Refinitiv Sector trends contribute to revenue stability Nevertheless, broadband connectivity will likely improve across Europe and 5G is here to stay. The private sector is investing heavily, but there are also plans to invest €13bn in digital connectivity as part of the European Resilience and Recovery Plan. Typically, customer retention is relatively healthy for fibre products, especially when combined in a fixed-mobile converged offer. Net mobile networks and services could also contribute to the goal of revenue stability and eventually growing revenues. This year, 5G products and services will likely become widespread. However, it will be key for mobile operators to find good pricing policies for these new 5G services.   Read this article on THINK TagsTelecom sector European telecoms Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
(NVDA) Nvidia Stock Price Plunged! Meme Stocks' Performance Seems To Be Surprisingly Good

(NVDA) Nvidia Stock Price Plunged! Meme Stocks' Performance Seems To Be Surprisingly Good

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 09.08.2022 12:23
Nvidia shares dived 6.30% yesterday on news that the company missed its revenue projection by $1.4 billion due to slower demand for PCs and gaming. Nvidia pulled other US chipmakers into the negative along with it, and brought the question of whether the chip rally, which was triggered by a $52 billion government help is over. US Dollar Index Amid NFP The dollar index gave back gains following the blowout NFP figures printed on Friday. Investors are confident that inflation in the US may have peaked last month, as the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations showed steep drops in inflation expectations in July. Forex - EUR/USD and more In the FX, the EURUSD is steady around the 1.02 level, waiting for the dollar to soften on ‘good news’ to make a further attempt toward the 1.0350 mark, where stands the 50-DMA. Given that the European Central Bank (ECB) played its biggest cards at last meeting, there is not much upside potential from the ECB standpoint. On the dollar-yen front, traders now call the end of a particularly winning long USDJPY trade this year. View on Flipboard!   Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:23 Nvidia plunges on slowing earnings 1:44 The revenge of energy stocks 3:10 Crude oil: where to? 4:59 Meme stocks rally, but gains are fragile 6:06 US inflation expectations ease before CPI print 7:52 FX update: EURUSD steady, USDJPY under pressure For economists, inflation expectations are more important than the actual data. Find out why! ▶️ Discover today's market highlights on our #MarketTalk with @IpekOzkardeskay: — Swissquote (@Swissquote) August 9, 2022 Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Nvidia #earnings #drop #chip #energy #meme #stocks #BBBY #AMC #XOM #Chevron #crude #oil #US #inflation #expectations #EUR #USD #JPY #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: Learn more about our employees: _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn:
It Was Possible That Tesla Would Move Closer To Resistance

Tech Stocks: Could Tesla Stock Price Reach $300?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 30.08.2022 16:17
Tesla falls to the first point of support. TSLA should bounce on Tuesday as markets recover. Tesla stock still looking overvalued as the sector rerates. A more or less normal day for stock markets on Monday took place after the sharp sell-off on Friday. Monday's performance was somewhat better than expected or less bad than many feared. Equity markets held up relatively well with the main indices losing less than 1%. Fears of capitulation were short-lived. This should set up a recovery rally for Tuesday and Wednesday and then probably markets will flatline ahead of Friday's employment report. Also read: Tesla Stock Deep Dive: Price target at $400 on China headwinds, margin compression, lower deliveries Tesla stock news The good news for bulls was that Monday's price action opened on the lows at $280, retested it in the first half, and then put in place a double bottom on an intraday basis that set Tesla (TSLA) stock higher for the remainder of the session. Overall, it was a pretty boring day. Tesla had a range of about $7 on the day, but there was no follow-through from Friday's sell-off. Is this consolidation just a holding pattern before further falls or a base building for a recovery? Tesla stock forecast TSLA stock longer-term view remains bearish with the series of lower tops identified by our trendline below. As we can see, Tesla is stuck in a high-volume area (grey bars on the right). High-volume areas are stabilization zones, and markets tend to move from one to another. Below $281 and above $314, volume thins out, so we would expect Tesla to move quickly through those zones. The recent Fed hawkish commentary from Powell puts the risk-reward in favor of the downside in my view, so I would be looking for TSLA stock to break $281 and a swift move through light volume until we reach the next high volume zone at $240. However, ahead of Friday, there is likely to be some recovery and then stabilization around $300. TSLA 1-day chart
European Markets Face Headwinds Amid Rising Yields and Inflation Concerns

NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Price Dropped On Tuesday

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.10.2022 19:37
Summary: The Biden administration's decision to limit electronics exports to China last week. Citigroup reduced Nvidia's price objective by $38 to $210 per share. Nvidia (NVDA) share price drops due to biden administration Following the Biden administration's decision to limit electronics exports to China last week, Nvidia (NVDA) led chip stocks lower on Tuesday amid a flurry of analyst downgrades and broader sector repricing. Late last week, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) issued a warning regarding near-term revenue growth, and weakening PC and smartphone demand also put pressure on already-weak chipmakers. Additionally, President Joe Biden's decision to severely restrict the sale of equipment to China-based companies used in the production of advanced semiconductors gave further downside momentum. In the United States, Intel also suffered as a result of analysts at Wells Fargo lowering their price target on the chipmaker and noting a steep drop in near-term sales amid broader sector weakness. In contrast, Citigroup reduced Nvidia's price objective by $38 to $210 per share due to slowing growth rates in the market for cloud computing hardware. Nvidia shares fell 2.4% in early Tuesday trading to trade at $113.85 per share. The Biden administration announced further extensive restrictions on the sale of semiconductors and related equipment to China on Friday. Then, today, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its projection for global growth, hurting morale as well. And to top it all off, the Chinese government has decided to lock down major cities once more in an effort to stop the spread of COVID-19, which has recently caused supply chain issues. The new limits on high-end processor sales to China could notably hurt Nvidia. Although the administration had already ordered Nvidia to stop selling its top-tier data center GPUs to China back in late August, the administration's latest limitations on equipment sales to China last week only serve to further cement the two nations' technical separation. It's important to note that Nvidia estimated that the limits would affect around $400 million in revenue, or about 7% of projected revenue, if they were completely enforced. NVDA Price Chart Sources:,,
Apple Stock Price, Microsoft, Amazon And Tesla (TSLA) Added A Lot Since July! How Deep Could EUR/USD Drop?

Telsa (TSLA) stock price has tanked 12% since Musk took control of Twitter (TWTR) on October 27

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.11.2022 18:59
Summary: Twitter does not make money like Tesla. The serial entrepreneur made an effort to reassure Tesla's supporters and investors . Investor confidence in Musk is lacking The maker of high-end electric vehicles appears to be going through a similar experience to that of an orphaned kid or a beloved who has fallen from grace. Elon Musk, the company's dynamic and forward-thinking co-founder and CEO, appears to have lost interest in it. Put the blame on Twitter (TWTR), which needs a lot of attention due to its enormous influence on public and political life. While Twitter does not make money like Tesla, it is nonetheless seen as our generation's equivalent of the town square, where trend-setters and opinion leaders congregate. Twitter sets the daily political agenda and the conversational subjects that eventually predominate in mainstream media coverage. Responsibility also comes with this authority. You are responsible for the content management policy, which requires constant vigilance. Any error in the content that is put on the platform has the potential to spark controversy, which can be difficult and time-consuming to resolve. Musk paid too much for Twitter—$44 billion. As part of the leveraged buyout, the billionaire owes around $13 billion in debt, which is secured by his remaining Tesla stock. He has been looking for ways to make money for the social network since he took control on October 27. But as Musk becomes more active on Twitter, Tesla's stock price declines. At the Baron Investment Conference on November 4, the billionaire claimed that since he bought Twitter, his workload had increased from "78 hours a week to perhaps 120." The serial entrepreneur made an effort to reassure Tesla's supporters and investors by claiming that he was still actively involved in the company's management. The message didn't reassure anyone. Since that time, Wall Street has seen a continuous decline in the price of Tesla stock. Tesla shares dropped to $196.66 at the close of trade on November 7—their lowest price in 52 weeks. Since Musk sealed the Twitter agreement on October 27, Tesla stock has fallen 12.4%. Tesla shares have lost a total of 41.2% of their value, or $197.08, since Musk revealed his offer on April 25. This results in a market value decline of about $436 billion. The holding company of renowned investor Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), surpassed Tesla on November 7 to become the sixth-largest corporation in the world by market capitalization. TSLA Price Chart Sources:,
The Current War Between China And The United States Over Semiconductor Chips Is Gaining Momentum

Nvidia expects its earnings will beat Q3 results in the next quarter

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.11.2022 16:02
NVDA stock gains more than 2% after hours following Q3 earnings. Nvidia missed non-GAAP EPS consensus by 17%. Management expects Q4 revenue to be higher than Q3. Nvidia (NVDA) stock gained 2.2% to $162.60 late Wednesday despite the fact that the premier chip designer in the world missed the Wall Street non-GAAP line of $0.70 a share. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) actually came in more than 17% below consensus at $0.52. "Why the advance for Nvidia price then?" you ask. It pretty much comes down to revenues. The market was expecting a third poor quarter in a row on the revenue front, but Nvidia emerged in Q3 with $5.93 billion. This was about $115 million ahead of the Street's average forecast. Nvidia earnings news The real silver lining, if you want to call it that, is that management pushed revenue expectations for Q4 higher than the present. Nvidia sales have been in a freefall for most of 2022 as many crypto miners have gone belly-up in the face of falling crypto prices and stopped buying their usual allotment of GPUs. Management, however, guided for $6 billion in Q4 sales, adding that the range was just 2% above or below that figure. The top line of that range at $6.12 billion was still about $20 million below the earlier analyst consensus, but the market has been optimistic this week. Much of that optimism is spillover from inflation data coming in soft and the US Midterm Elections having passed, but the market seems to believe that the worst is over for the semiconductor giant. Though Nvidia's share price remains down 47% year to date, NVDA stock has charged forward more than 35% in the past month. This does seem somewhat surprising, seeing as revenue is down about 17% YoY and EPS in Q3 was down by more than half over that same time period. Management's guidance for gross margin, however, also turned heads. Despite finishing the third quarter with a 56.1% adjusted gross margin, the executive said it would hit 66% in the fourth quarter. This signals to shareholders that notwithstanding the higher inventory levels reducing demand this year, Nvidia is not even close to being a price taker. While the gaming segment continues to deteriorate, down 51% YoY, data center revenue continued to outperform. Sales from that segment rose 31% YoY despite softness in China stemming from covid lockdowns. A big reason for its fall in gross margin during the quarter was a $700+ million charge caused by this lower demand from Chinese data centers. Read next: Many sued in FTX scandal, Elon Musk to reduce his time at Twitter, EU stocks edged higher on Thursday| FXMAG.COM Executives said the inability to sell its A100 and H100 data center processors to Chinese customers due to ongoing US sanctions also hurt results, but that Chinese customers instead chose to bulk up on other products. "We’re seeing surging demand in some very important sectors of AIs and important breakthroughs in AI," said CEO Jensen Huang, while noting that demand for general-purpose computing chips had slowed. "One is called deep recommender systems, which is quite essential now to the best content or item or product to recommend to somebody who’s using a device that is like a cell phone or interacting with a computer just using voice." Nvidia stock forecast Nvidia stock is beginning to trade lower in Thursday's premarket, however, alongside the broad market. Shares are off 1.4% in line with the Nasdaq Composite, so this does not seem to be a result of Nvidia's earnings. The major event has been St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard saying that a "doveish" Fed policy from this point would still require a full one percentage point hike to the fed funds rate. If the market does seek support, NVDA stock can find it at the 9-day moving average near $153. A more drastic sell-off could force it down to the 21-day average at $140. For bulls to come back into this name, Nvidia stock needs to break above the Tuesday high at $170. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still in a bullish crossover stance, but it has begun to move sideways. NVDA 1-day chart
AMC stock price soared 13% yesterday. What can we expect from the price line?

AMC stock price soared 13% yesterday. What can we expect from the price line?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 02.12.2022 15:31
AMC Entertainment stock closed up 13% on Thursday. AMC stock trading was halted on Thursday due to unusual volatility. 46 million AMC shares had traded by shortly after noon. AMC stock is again advancing in Friday's premarket. AMC Entertainment (AMC) stock is up 3.4% in Friday's premarket just a day after authorities halted trading due to unusual volatility. Thursday saw options volume three times higher than the 20-day average, and AMC stock leapt as much as 27% before trading was halted shortly before 12:30pm. Trading then recommenced with AMC's share price closing up 13% at $8.17, its highest closing price since September 21. AMC Entertainment stock news: Call options bring all the boys to the yard AMC Entertainment stock got going early on Thursday and reached as high as a 27% gain before being halted. Authorities said about 46 million shares changed hands by that time compared to an average of 25 million. The AMC price action was led by option market activity. Retail traders and especially the much-maligned AMC Apes were furious with the trading halt. Read next: Porsche NFT Collection Will Hit The Market In January 2023 | FXMAG.COM Bloomberg reported that by 3pm, 550,000 call contracts representing 55 million shares had traded, while the 20-day average was 163,000. Activity was especially noted in the $8, $8.50 and $9 strike prices that are expiring this Friday. On Thursday these strikes saw more than 80,000, 63,000 and 71,000 call contracts trade by the close. The $10 strike also saw nearly 36,000 contracts trade as well. The $8 strike closed the session at $0.36 a share, and the $8.50 closed at $0.17 a share. BNK Invest noted heightened activity last Tuesday as well, writing, "Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (Symbol: AMC), where a total volume of 136,950 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approximately 13.7 million underlying shares (given that every 1 contract represents 100 underlying shares). That number works out to 51.6% of AMC's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 26.5 million shares." AMC Apes on Twitter have been badgering CEO Adam Aron about the APE equity unit price as it recently fell below $1. It closed Thursday up 1.1% at $0.9822, and is now trading up to $1.02 in Friday's premarket. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever dominated the US box office once again last weekend, but observers believe its numbers are falling too rapidly. Still the superhero film has grossed about $683 million worldwide and is already the seventh highest grossing movie of the year with more room to run. AMC stock forecast The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator in regard to AMC stock's daily chart shows a moderate bullish pattern. Thursday's burst blew well above the November 14 and 15 pinnacle, and a cursory look at this chart makes one think there is more energy left for upside. Of course, traders will be closing out their call options in the afternoon, but other might be already buying up those for next week. $10.39 looms large for bulls since this is where they got stopped out in mid-September. Before AMC can reach that point, however, the R1 pivot sits at $8.70 and the R2 is at $10.18. The 21-day moving average at $6.87 is the current pivot, and $5.17 is the long-term support level from November 7 and 9. AMC 1-day chart
Adidas And CALT Results Will Be On Watch, China’s Modest Growth Targets For 2023

Elon Musk sells, Tesla declines. According to FXStreet, stock price may fall to $128.50

FXStreet News FXStreet News 15.12.2022 16:10
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has reportedly sold $3.6 billion worth of TSLA stock. Elon Musk's selling caused Tesla stock to decline in price this week in contrast to the NASDAQ. TSLA shares have fallen 11% in the past five sessions against the NASDAQ's 2% gain. Tesla stock is near support at $154 but could drop to $128.50. Tesla (TSLA) continues its December slide on Thursday a day after it was revealed that CEO Elon Musk has sold out $3.6 billion worth of shares. The news makes the past week's TSLA price action more sensible as observant traders wondered aloud why Tesla kept selling off despite the NASDAQ climbing higher. Tesla stock is down around 2% in Thursday's premarket, even reaching below long-term support at $154. Tesla stock news: Elon Musk sells 20 million shares In the three sessions between Monday, December 12, and Wednesday, December 14, Elon Musk sold about 20.2 million shares of Tesla stock. These sales ranged from a high of $176.70 to a low of $156.14. Musk began the week with 443.8 million shares of TSLA and ended Wednesday with 423.6 million shares. Altogether these sales brought in about $3.58 billion in cash. Elon Musk has sold a total of about $40 billion worth of Tesla stock in the last year, most of which went to fund his takeover of Twitter. This selling has resulted in TSLA stock losing 11% over the past five sessions compared with a 2% gain for the NASDAQ. Tesla has lost 17% over the past month and now 61% for the full year. "It doesn't put a lot of confidence in the business, or speak volumes for where his attention is at," wrote Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets. This stock performance is beginning to leave bulls with anxiety. Tesla stock has been suffering from Musk's focus on Twitter for months now. Since fully taking over the social media platform six weeks ago, Musk's constant flurry of shockingly partisan political tweets have made some analysts lose faith in his leadership abilities. Recently, he tweeted: "My pronouns are prosecuted/Fauci", in reference to the main covid advisor during the Trump and Biden administrations. Noted long-time Tesla bull Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities was quite blunt on the matter of Musk's activity: "The Twitter nightmare continues as Musk uses Tesla as his own ATM machine to keep funding the red ink at Twitter[,] which gets worse by the day as more advertisers flee the platform with controversy increasing driven by Musk." RBC Capital Markets cut its price target early Thursday from $325 to $225, saying that the market was slowly getting its head around the reduction in gross profit margins. Morgan Stanely is also rather melancholy about the electric vehicle industry of late. The storied investment bank cut its global EV share estimate to 11.8% for 2023 compared to 10.1% in 2022. Its estimates going out to 2050 were trimmed as well. The bank noted that Lucid Group (LCID) has been receiving lower reservations and cancellations and that Rivian Automotive (RIVN) has halted reporting reservations entirely. "We are preparing for a challenging FY23 outlook for auto earnings on demand decline (higher rates), deflation (lower price/mix) and unfavorable changes in the supply/demand balance for EVs," wrote Morgan Stanely analyst Adam Jonas in a note to clients earlier this week. Tesla stock forecast: If $154 cannot hold, then $128.50 is next Tesla stock fell below the $154 support level in Thursday's premarket, which is probably a bad omen for bulls. The $154 level served as resistance back during August and October 2020, and the hope was that it would reemerge as support. The next available historical support price available to cushion a further fall is all the way down at $128.50. This one comes from the level that saw support during that same period in the second half of 2020. Additionally, a year-old descending trendline that goes back to December 2021 leads the TSLA share price toward this $128.50 level. TSLA 1-week stock chart
USA: Final Q3 GDP amounts to 3.2%. Subtle Micron earnings

Franklin Templeton expect companies to maintain Digital Transformation in 2023

Franklin Templeton Franklin Templeton 22.12.2022 20:35
Franklin Equity Group believes the Digital Transformation is still in its early stages, with long-term secular growth tailwinds that we believe extend well beyond the current economic cycle. Rising interest rates, slowing economic activity and a normalization of COVID-19-era consumption habits pressured the technology sector in 2022. While the past year has been difficult, we remain optimistic because we continue to see signs of enduring quality, sustainable growth and supportive valuations. Looking to 2023, we expect enterprises to continue many of their Digital Transformation initiatives, albeit at a slower pace, even in the face of moderating rate increases and slowing economic activity. This is because these investments are driving needed productivity gains, especially in an inflationary environment. We have found opportunities in high-quality platform-like companies—that are essential to their customers’ operations—in enterprise software and information technology (IT) services companies and the sub-themes of Secure Cloud and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Machine Learning, Future of Work and Cybersecurity. Read next: Nike (NKE) jumped 12.18% and Fedex (FDX) rose 3.43%, as both companies' quarterly earnings exceeded expectations | FXMAG.COM Conversely, we anticipate greater uncertainty in consumer technology as COVID-19 tailwinds continue to abate, energy prices rise in Europe and global economic activity slows. We believe areas such as consumer IT hardware, gaming, eCommerce, and digital advertising may have a slightly longer road to recovery. We also expect consumer discretionary spending to weaken as unemployment rises and as excess household savings that had built up during the pandemic decline amid persistently high inflation. In fact, this began to play out during the second half of 2022, which led to negative estimate revisions across the semiconductor, consumer personal computer (PC), gaming and internet industries. While we believe below-trend growth will likely continue for these industries into 2023, we also think we are nearing the point at which valuations incorporate this view. In these consumer-facing categories, we remain focused on businesses that have achieved meaningful scale and are levered to sub-themes such as Digital Media Transformation, New Commerce and Electrification and Autonomy. In our analysis, our strategy is well positioned for a recovery once rates stabilize and investors return to more enterprise-centric technology names. These are high-quality companies that demonstrate superior long-term growth potential, de-risked estimates and improved valuations. In our opinion, for investors who share our long-term mindset, the risk/reward profile in the technology sector is likely the best it has been in several years. If rates stabilize in the coming months, we believe the technology sector can offer an appealing combination of “offense” and “defense” in this environment, given higher levels of durable secular growth and strong balance sheets and margins. Compelling Long-Term Potential for Innovation US Venture Capital (VC) Investment, Company Formation, and the Digital Economy’s Share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)1999-2021 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Pitchbook.US Venture Capital (VC) Investment in $USD billions based on annual dataDigital economy’s share of GDP as defined and measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Ultimately, we think Digital Transformation is still in its early stages, with long-term secular growth tailwinds, which we believe extend well beyond the current economic cycle. As seen in the chart above, Digital Economy businesses have steadily outpaced overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for the last 20 years, due to steady venture capital (VC) investment across cycles. Yet, these businesses still only account for roughly 10% of total GDP. In our analysis, this will continue to trend much higher across all geographies for the foreseeable future, and we will likely continue to own what we think are high-quality businesses that are best positioned to capture this growth. WHAT ARE THE RISKS? All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. Growth stock prices reflect projections of future earnings or revenues, and can, therefore, fall dramatically if the company fails to meet those projections. To the extent a strategy focuses on particular countries, regions, industries, sectors or types of investment from time to time, it may be subject to greater risks of adverse developments in such areas of focus than a strategy that invests in a wider variety of countries, regions, industries, sectors or investments. Investments in fast-growing industries like the health care or technology sectors (which historically have been volatile) could result in increased price fluctuation, especially over the short term, due to the rapid pace of product change and development and changes in government regulation of companies emphasizing scientific or technological advancement or regulatory approval for new drugs and medical instruments. Source: Technology sector 2023 outlook | Franklin Templeton
Markets under Pressure: Rising Yields, Strong Dollar, and Political Headwinds Weigh on Stocks"

US tech stocks losses are huge - Netflix and Facebook are more than 70% down from Autumn peaks

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 30.12.2022 10:18
US indices rallied yesterday, in an effort to recover a part of the past few session losses, rather than a fresh move, on fresh news, as there was no fresh news yesterday.   But yesterday's jump in US indices was relatively strong, perhaps due to thin trading volumes that make look the year-end moves impressive, while they are not.   Anyway, the S&P500 gained 1.75% yesterday, and could maybe finish the year with less than a 20% loss, while Nasdaq jumped more than 2.50%, but will still end the year with more than a 30% drawdown.   Things have changed so much in one year!  The Pivot  Remember, last year at this time, we were about to see Apple become the world's first $3 trillion company. The S&P500 and Nasdaq were running from record to record, and no one imagined how bad the hangover would be.   We didn't know it at that time but the 2022 bear market officially kicked off just a couple of days after the year started, when the first FOMC minutes release of the year showed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) was no kidding about the rate hikes, and that the financial conditions would get real tighter over the year.   And man, they got tighter... way tighter than we expected a year ago, with the Fed raising its interest rates 425bp starting from March.   As a result, Apple lost a third of its value, Amazon lost half of its valuation since the beginning of the year and, this month, became the first US big cap to lose more than $1 trillion in valuation. Netflix lost up to 75% of its value compared to November 2021 peak, and Facebook scraped 77% of its value since September 2021 peak.  Read next: 2023 predictions: All in all I forecast the S&P to fall 5% on the year but the Nasdaq will fall 10% says Ivan Brian, Chief Equity Analyst at FXStreet | FXMAG.COM It has been a terrible year for chipmakers as well. Nvidia, one of the most promising and hyped chipmakers in the US has also lost half of its valuation as, on top of slowing post-pandemic demand, the US blocked exports to the fructuous Chinese market.  And last but not least, Tesla contributed greatly to the fall of the S&P500, losing almost half of its valuation only since the start of the year. And the share price is down by more than 70% since its November 2021 peak, as Elon Musk made the headlines again this year, but not for good reasons. Twitter has in fact taken a huge toll on man's reputation. 2022 hasn't been his year.   A bad year...  In reality, 2022 hasn't been the year of no one, I guess. A was started in Ukraine as soon as end February and wreaked havoc in the markets. The Western nations imposed sanctions on Russia in March. Ruble lost half of its value against the dollar at the wake of its first attack in Ukraine, but only to close the year flat, and even slightly stronger against the dollar compared to before the war, as the skyrocketing oil prices filled the country's coffers.   Oil on the other hand soared to $130pb at the wake of Russia's first attacks on Ukraine. We had all kind of speculation that it would rally to the $180-200pb area. But Thank God that didn't happen. We are preparing to end the year below $80pb instead, as the recession fears took a toll on bullish bets.   But energy stocks had a great year. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, Shell did so great that the desperate Western governments watching inflation cause a huge cost of living crisis decided to impose windfall taxes on these companies who announced jaw dropping earnings throughout the year and Exxon ended up suing the EU for this decision just a couple of days ago.  While all this was happening, the US' national debt went above the $30 trillion mark.   But the US dollar gained, as the Fed raised rates. Others raised rates as well, but the dollar kept rising.   Cryptocurrencies saw massive outflows, and the outflows revealed the cracks in the system, causing the collapse of the major institutions like Terra Luna, and FTX lately.   And gold hasn't been great in tempering inflation, but at the end of the year, and despite the soaring yields, the yellow metal managed to recover yearly losses, and is even preparing to end the year around 1% higher than where it started in US dollar terms.   So voilà. Everything looked ugly this year, except for energy and the US dollar.   The major take of 2022  The most important take of the year is: the era of easy money ended, and ended for good. It means that the financial markets won't look like anything we knew since the subprime crisis.   This is the beginning of a new era, when central banks will be playing a more subdued role in the markets, with less liquidity available to fix problems – a more than necessary move that came perhaps too late, and too painfully.   And given that there is still plenty of cheap central bank liquidity waiting to be pulled back, the situation may not get better before it gets worse in the first quarters of next year. Recession, inflation, stagflation will likely dominate headlines next year.   Happy New Year!
FX Daily: Resuming the Norm – Dollar Gains Momentum as Quarter-End Flows Fade

Real bargains on Wall Street, Barron's point to, i.a. Google and Amazon as undervalued stocks

Pawel Zapolski Pawel Zapolski 30.12.2022 13:59
Among the 10 great investment opportunities for 2023, identified by analysts of the famous portal Barron's , were Alphabet and Amazon. 2022 was not a good year for the stock market. The S&P 500 fell by about a fifth, and many large, solid companies lost much more on valuation. The famous investor portal Barron's decided to make an interesting list of important and highly undervalued companies from the American stock exchange, and we decided to take a look at them in search of interesting indications. Alphabet needs weight loss It turned out that Barron's list includes well-known, large technology companies: Alphabet and Amazon. And that's what caught our attention. Big Techs were heavily discounted due to the rising cost of money - the Fed had no mercy when it came to tightening monetary policy. 10 bets of Barron's for 2023 Source: Barron's Let's start with Google's parent company, whose valuation has fallen by a third in the past year. Its revenue growth slowed, and investors worried about the decline in advertising on the famous search engine. At $95, Alphabet 's stock is currently trading at 18x its 2023 earnings projections, and the P/E ratio will be even lower when you factor in losses at other companies, including Waymo , the leader in self-driving vehicles. Barron 's columnists point out that famous investors Joe Rosenberg and Chris Hohn recently raised the issue of high costs, and even wrote a letter to the president of Alphabet Sundar Pichai . It may be hard to believe, but employment at Alphabet has doubled since 2018. Certainly, Alphabet needs "weight loss". Alphabet should also pay dividends, something that is typical of a mature and profitable company that went public 18 years ago, Barron's analysts stress . Alphabet quotes   Source: Trading View Amazon needs to start making money in the retail segment Online retail giant Amazon has halved its valuation in 2022, from $1.7 trillion to $834 billion. No one expected this at the beginning of January. This happened not only because of the rate hikes, but also because of the slowdown in sales of cloud-computing services . But according to Barron's analysts, the coming year should be better as Jeff Bezos ' company cuts costs and increases the efficiency of its online operations. In the last 3 years, it has invested USD 80 billion in its development. Barron's notes the opinion of SVB MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Morton, who recently started watching Amazon and admittedly gave "overweight" with a price target of $118, but estimated that Amazon 's retail segment has negative operating margins after excluding lucrative ad revenue. He stressed that Amazon needs to make a profit in its retail business if it is thinking of increasing its stock market valuation. With 50x next year's profits, Amazon's stock isn't cheap, but few companies have two dominant businesses with so much value and such good prospects, Barron's columnists point out . In the case of Bezos , the other leg is the profitable cloud business Amazon Web Services, which has great growth potential, according to Barron's analysts. Amazon quotes   Source: Trading View
Astonished by the week ahead? Barclays, NatWest Group and Microsoft earnings are also released shortly

Amazon is steadier thanks to its high-margin AWS cloud business, while Apple may hold up better than most as Chinese stimulus boosts iPhone sales

Yohay Elam Yohay Elam 04.01.2023 13:51
To some market participants first days of January may come as unattractive and even boring. In some places, echo of holiday season still can be noticed, but it seems there are cases (like Eurozone inflation and FOMC meeting minutes) market participants can think about while waiting for actual big ones. In the near future they are earnings, that could be real game-changers especially in times of spectacular decreases of Tesla, Apple and Amazon stock prices. Let's hear from Yohay Elam, Senior analyst at FXStreet. Eurozone inflation has come out significantly lower than expected, a fall driven by the plunge in energy costs. The new year has kicked off with exceptionally warm temperatures, promising further falls in headline inflation. While these developments may weaken the argument for further ECB tightening, the fall in gas prices may allow European to spend on other goods and especially services, solidifying core inflation and strengthening hawks supporting further aggressive rate hikes. All in all, any inflation-related fall in the euro will likely be short-lived. In its' Meeting Minutes, the Fed may opt to push back against bond markets' pricing of rate cuts coming in H2 2023 Markets have been highly sensitive to economic releases in 2022, and the first week of 2023 is likely to be no exception. In its' Meeting Minutes, the Fed may opt to push back against bond markets' pricing of rate cuts coming in H2 2023. Such a scenario would follow previous guidance and may catch investors off guard, boosting the dollar. Nonfarm Payrolls has lost the top spot among market movers to inflation data. Nevertheless, any deviation from expectations is set to trigger considerable price action. Read next: Exxon And Chevron Abandon The Global Market And Focus On The Americas| FXMAG.COM Tech stocks have yet to find a bottom, as uncertainty about the path of interest rates remains high. Tesla is under pressure due to Elon Musk's distractions and growing competition in the EV space. Amazon is steadier thanks to its high-margin AWS cloud business, while Apple may hold up better than most as Chinese stimulus boosts iPhone sales.
According to Althea Spinozzi, it's clear that inflation remains Fed most significant focus

There doesn't seem to be any reason for decoupling currently, with Bitcoin expected to mirror the price action of major US equities, namely the Nasdaq and S&P 500

M4Markets Analysis M4Markets Analysis 23.01.2023 13:39
FXMAG.COM team asked M4Markets to share their thoughts on the Eurozone inflation and European Central Bank interest rate decision, Bitcoin, Microsoft and Tesla earnings. M4Markets: From the last ECB meeting minutes, there is a stronger contingent looking for higher rates. Headline inflation came down from 10.10% to 9.20%, but that tends to be volatile, so the ECB doesn't pay as much attention to the headline figure as it does to the core. And core expanded from 5.0% to 5.2% year-on-year, so there would be even more reason to hike than the last meeting.  Given the high inflation, the main reason for the ECB not to raise rates as much would be lingering concerns about the impact on the Eurozone economy. As long as the economic indicators are positive and core inflation remains elevated, the ECB will likely be more inclined towards 50 bps or even 75 bps hikes. Note that European rates are still 2.0%, or 200 bps, behind the Fed's.  Bitcoin had given back some of its spectacular gains, but its price its still elevated. What do you expect from the leading crypto in the near future? Crypto has largely been responding to the actions of central banks, as would be expected of a relatively high-risk asset. There doesn't seem to be any reason for decoupling currently, with Bitcoin expected to mirror the price action of major US equities, namely the Nasdaq and S&P 500.  Read next: Bitget analyst about the US GDP: In my opinion, we will see higher GDP than expected 2% - in Q3 and Q4 revisions we’ve seen stronger economic momentum than expected | FXMAG.COM The recent 40% surge in BTC has recovered more than the loss suffered in the aftermath of the FTX scandal and could continue to follow the general risk-on-risk-off trend as the event is now fully dismissed. With the Fed expected to slow hiking and pause in the near future, BTC could get some more backing as the dollar weakens through the winter. Corrections must be expected, though, as we near last summer's high of $25200. Some big names report earnings soon. What do you expect from Microsoft and Tesla? Microsoft has been quite active lately, announcing a deal to invest in ChatGPT and reducing its workforce to cut costs. So there will likely be much attention on additional financial details about how these moves will affect the company. The issue is if there will be an impact on guidance since Microsoft typically provides it for the coming quarter.  Tesla is still all about deliveries, so the main thing would be to see if there has been any change in sales numbers due to the recently announced price cut. And then to see how much that might revise guidance. There has been much anticipation for a potential announcement of another Gigafactory, potentially in Mexico, and if that isn't announced, it could lead to further disappointment.
Microsoft Is Replacing The Metaverse With Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Stock market: Artificial intelligence as a "hot sector" for 2023?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 10.02.2023 16:19 stock lost 14% on Thursday. still remains a major focus of AI investors. ChatGPT has brought renewed attention to artificial intelligence. stock remains up more than 100% YTD. (AI) stock is giving up more ground in Friday's premarket, but do not blink too long. is one of few pure plays among publically-owned artificial intelligence stocks and will be back in the spotlight shortly. The stock sold off more than 14% on Thursday as the broader market turned south, and these volatile gyrations should be expected. However, few other stock provide the enterprise focus of, and its more than 100% gain year to date was no passing fad. stock news: Right industry, right time is simply the right stock for this environment. Artificial intelligence has been talked about for decades, but now it has become clear that nearly every megacap in Silicon Valley and around the world is putting its wallet where its mouth is. Ever since OpenAI's ChatGPT entered the scene a little over two months ago, it has appeared that artificial intelligence will be the hot sector for 2023. While storm clouds still abound regarding the macro picture, artificial intelligence firms offer belief in a future with incredible market expansion and upside. Microsoft's (MSFT) $10 billion investment in ChatGPT creator OpenAI values that firm at $29 billion. It probably should have a decently high valuation, but $29 billion? That is how significant Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella think's OpenAI's technology is. Microsoft's announcement midweek that it will be integrating OpenAI tech with its own Bing search platform was enough to cause Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) to lose more than 13% of its market cap in just two sessions. Of course, it was greatly affected when Alphabet's own unveiling of its large language model Bard on Wednesday featured technical difficulties. No one is certain if Microsoft can use OpenAI's tech to cut deeply into Google's 90% hold on the internet search industry, but the competition is definitely on. China's Baidu (BIDU) also got in on the action this week by unveiling its timeline for introducing its own ChatGPT-style technology. Called Wenxin Yiyan in Mandarin and ERNIE Bot in English, the artificial intelligence bot will not be available until March for the general public, but the announcement alone sent Baidu stock up 15% on Tuesday. Read next: Tech stocks: Microsoft fired 100 employees from the metaverse unit | FXMAG.COM With only a $2.5 billion market cap after Thursday's slide, just 8% of OpenAI's acknowledged private valuation, looks cheap. Moreover, offers a suite of artifical intelligence platforms geared specifically for various industries. These include public sector, military, oil & gas and financial services platform offerings, and the company already boasts a number of high-profile customers. These include Baker Hughes, Shell, the US Air Force and Koch Industries. Additionally, just introduced the C3 Generative AI Product Suite that can incorporate and integrate other artificial intelligence bundles like ChatGPT for clients. has been doing the hardword of growing its client base. In its most recent 12-month earnings reports, management grew revenue by 38% YoY. Wall Street consensus sees a lower 21% growth in the 2024 fiscal year, which begins in May 2023, but they also see losses being cut in half. Other competitors like (BBAI) and SoundHound AI (SOUN) exist but are at much earlier stages of their commercial journeys. With so much interest in the artificial intelligence sector going forward, it would be unsurprising if a larger tech company decided to scoop it up. Either way, this stock is not staying at a $2.5 billion market cap. Just last week the DA Davidson firm slapped with a $30 price target and a Buy rating. That is rather low, but it is a start. stock forecast After this week's rally, which saw AI stock shoot up to $30.92 before trading lower in a volatile fashion, expect stock to continue lower. Consolidation is the short-term call here, and $17.50 looks like a great entry point. The $17.50 to $18 range worked well as support back in the second half of 2022 and then again in late January. This area is also where the 21-day moving average lies. The macro picture has begun turning over in February with more traders understanding that high interest rates are likely to be in place all year. That has caused a general sell-off in growth stocks like Sentiment changes quickly though, and when it does AI stock will once again tear ahead of the competition. Expect stock to test November 2021 resistance at $50 sometime this year. As DA Davidson wrote in their coverage, stock is truly a "scarce asset". AI daily chart
Saxo Market Call podcast Listeners' Edition - answers to listeners survey, Google AI, copper and more

Is AI another bubble...? The global artificial intelligence market size is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.3% from 2023 to 2030

Ramesh Mungara Ramesh Mungara 09.03.2023 10:35
Stocks linked with AI and stocks of companies which are commonly known to have invested in such technologies are arousing investors' interest, while at FXMAG we wonder if the AI isn't another bubble. Let's hear from Ramesh Mungara (VT Markets). Ramesh Mungara (VT Markets): It is important to note that predicting market trends and bubbles is a complex task that involves many factors, including economic conditions, investor sentiment, and technological advancements. The global artificial intelligence market size was valued at USD 136.55 billion in 2022 and is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.3% from 2023 to 2030. The continuous research and innovation directed by tech giants are driving the adoption of advanced technologies in industry verticals, such as automotive, healthcare, retail, finance, and manufacturing. It is also important to note that the AI market is not a single entity, but rather a collection of different technologies and applications that are being developed and deployed in various industries. Some of these technologies may see more rapid growth than others, and some may experience a period of hype before their potential impact is fully realized. Tech giants like, Inc.; Google LLC; Apple Inc.; Facebook; International Business Machines Corporation; and Microsoft are investing significantly in the research and development of AI AI is proven to be a significant revolutionary element of the upcoming digital era. Tech giants like, Inc.; Google LLC; Apple Inc.; Facebook; International Business Machines Corporation; and Microsoft are investing significantly in the research and development of AI. Whilst North America accounts for 43% of market share for 2022, it is the Asia Pacific region that is forecasted and expected to grow the most (42%) from years 2023 to 2030. For the rest of this year however, the steady growth path the AI market has taken, it is forecasted to grow by another $42.4 billion. AI is proven to be a significant revolutionary element of the upcoming digital era Read next: One of Ueda's main priorities is to achieve the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, which has eluded the central bank for years| FXMAG.COM The significant investment made into AI will certainly yield favourable results. The AI market remains relatively new to global investors and like most new markets, there will be optimism and opportunities for both long term investors and short-term speculators. It's longevity and true success however will only be realized over time. While there is always the possibility of a bubble in any market, it is also possible that the growth in the AI market is driven by real demand and the potential benefits that these technologies can offer. It is up to investors to carefully evaluate the opportunities and risks in the market and make informed decisions based on their own analysis and research.
Eurodollar: InstaForex's analyst suggests making sales with objectives close to the predicted 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci

Bitcoin and tech stocks correlation, is it still that tight?

Serhii Zhdanov Serhii Zhdanov 05.05.2023 13:58
This is exactly what we asked EXMO's Serhii Zhdanov. Let's hear from him. Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO): Since the beginning of 2023, the correlation between BTC and stocks has dropped considerably. This was caused by the decline in job vacancies and the regional bank crisis in the US, which both evoked discussions about a possible recession in the country. As a result, we observed a strong flight from risk to quality. Bitcoin, quite unexpectedly for many, became a hedge against the banking crisis. Investors reconsidered their risk management practices and began allocating funds to crypto assets. Currently, the first cryptocurrency is more correlated with gold – another safe-haven asset. Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with gold and NASDAQ Index stands at 0.53 and 0.49, respectively. Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO): However, we can't say with certainty that cryptocurrencies no longer react to the behaviour of the stock market, since Bitcoin's latest price movements are noticeably similar to the movements of gold and S&P 500\Nasdaq indices. Important economic dates and earnings reports of tech giants such as Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), among others can still influence the price of Bitcoin. However, this impact is noticeably lower than observed in 2022, when BTC demonstrated a high correlation with shares, with prices moving almost in unison. Read next: Japan inflation: the decline in inflation is largely due to a reduction in the cost of utilities – by 0.3%| FXMAG.COM
Apple earnings: Company did not give an outlook for the next quarter, which could prove even more challenging due to parts shortages and competition

Apple earnings: Company did not give an outlook for the next quarter, which could prove even more challenging due to parts shortages and competition

Andrey Goilov Andrey Goilov 08.05.2023 13:19
On FXMAG.COM request, Andrey Goilov from RoboForex comments on Apple earnings. The company's revenue hit almost $95bn with iPhone sales increasing 4%. Here's what Andrey said about Apple 1Q23 earnings: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) delivered mixed financial results for the first quarter of 2023 ended on 1 April. The company recorded revenue of 94.8 billion USD, which is 3% lower than the same period last year, and net income of 24.16 billion USD (1.52 USD per share), down 3.4% compared with the previous year. However, these figures beat the expectations of experts who had forecast revenue of 92.96 billion USD and EPS of 1.43 USD. iPhone remains the main growth driver, as it enjoys strong demand thanks to its 5G support and innovative design. A new record was set for iPhone revenue, which reached 51.3 billion USD in the first quarter. The company is also successfully developing its services business, which ensures a stable flow of income from subscriptions to various applications and platforms. This segment's revenue reached an all-time record of 20.9 billion USD. Meanwhile, Mac revenue saw the biggest decline, shrinking from 10.4 billion to 7.2 billion USD. There are several reasons for this. First, the company faced difficulties, struggling to compare with last year, when Mac was in strong demand due to the pandemic and a shift to remote work and learning. Secondly, the company faced macroeconomic issues such as shortages in components, rising shipping costs, and low demand in some regions. Third, the company was transitioning to Apple Silicon processors, which may have discouraged prospective customers who were awaiting the Mac line-up upgrade. Sales of iPad and other wearable devices and accessories also dropped by 13% and 0.6% respectively. Revenue also varied by region, with sales in the US falling from 40.89 to 37.8 billion USD, in China from 18.3 to 17.8 billion USD, and in Japan from 7.7 to 7.2 billion USD. Nevertheless, sales in Europe increased from 23.23 to 23.9 billion USD and from 7.0 to 8.1 billion USD in the rest of the world. Read next: McD earnings: McDonald's Corporation saw an increase in sales worldwide, including in the US, Europe, Australia, China, and Japan| FXMAG.COM In this context, Apple's plans for a dividend increase and stock buyback programme came as a surprise. The company's board of directors approved another 90 billion USD stock buyback and announced an increase in DPS from 0.23 to 0.24 USD. Dividends will be paid on 18 May. Apple's Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri said the company's business performance improved compared to the December quarter and the operating cash flow of 28.6 billion USD was strong Apple's CEO Timothy Cook expressed satisfaction with the results and noted that its active device base had increased to an all-time high. Apple's Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri said the company's business performance improved compared to the December quarter and the operating cash flow of 28.6 billion USD was strong. iPhone sales were the main driver of Apple's higher-than-expected income and profit, despite the challenging macroeconomic environment. Apple's services division also achieved record performance and demonstrated the strength of its ecosystem and customer loyalty. However, Apple's total sales volume and net profit declined for the second straight quarter, which indicates that the company is still facing challenges due to supply chain issues and lower demand for other products such as the Mac and iPad. Apple did not give an outlook for the next quarter, which could prove even more challenging due to parts shortages and competition. Overall, the company's report can be considered good, but not without concerns about a deterioration in future performance.    Visit RoboForex
EXMO.COM analyst: Currently, Tesla is still trying to conquer the market by prioritising revenue over profit

EXMO.COM analyst: Currently, Tesla is still trying to conquer the market by prioritising revenue over profit

Serhii Zhdanov Serhii Zhdanov 19.05.2023 11:44
FXMAG.COM: Could you please share your thoughts on Tesla earnings after they're released? After the release of the financial report, TSLA shares dropped by about 10% Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO.COM): After the release of the financial report, TSLA shares dropped by about 10%. A decrease in margins was caused by the desperate price battle launched by the company in an effort to maintain high sales rates. Tesla has repeatedly reduced the prices of its cars in the USA, China, and Germany. Currently, Tesla is still trying to conquer the market by prioritising revenue over profit. As a result, TSLA's revenue rose 24% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2023. However, its profit shrank, causing the EBITDA margin and the operating margin to drop from nearly 27% to 18.3% and to 11%. Elon Musk emphasised that the company strives to continue the maximum possible production of cars and noted that Tesla still remains one of the most profitable companies in the industry. The company expects a gradual decrease in the cost of cars, while also planning to increase production efficiency at new factories and reduce logistics costs. The company expects a gradual decrease in the cost of cars, while also planning to increase production efficiency at new factories and reduce logistics costs Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO.COM): Tesla remains focused on operating leverage as it scales its business. Musk expressed confidence that Tesla will achieve full autonomy in 2023 if things go according to plan. However, Tesla's CEO is known for his long-term unfulfilled pledges. Tesla has claimed that it is looking for 50% year-over-year long-term growth and will deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2023. Musk also added that the automaker might do better than that and produce two million vehicles. Read next: Inflation has slowed down, but it will take about two years before it returns to the target range of 3%. RBA expects inflation to decline to 4.5% by the end of 2023 | FXMAG.COM
ADP Employment Surges with 497,000 Gain, Nonfarm Payrolls Awaited - 07.07.2023

European Markets Sink Amid Recession Concerns and Oil Price Slump

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 31.05.2023 08:09
With the White House and Republican leaders agreeing a deal on the debt ceiling at the weekend markets are now obsessing about whether the deal will get the necessary votes to pass into law, as partisan interests line up to criticise the deal.   With the deadline for a deal now said to be next Monday, 5th June a vote will need to go forward by the end of the week, with ratings agencies already sharpening their pencils on downgrades for the US credit rating. European markets sank sharply yesterday along with bond yields, as markets started to fret about a recession, while oil prices sank 4% over demand concerns. US markets also struggled for gains although the Nasdaq 100 has continued to outperform as a small cohort of tech stocks contrive to keep US markets afloat. As we look towards today's European open and the end of the month, we look set for further declines after Asia markets slid on the back of another set of weak China PMIs for May. We'll also be getting another look at how things are looking with respect to economic conditions in Europe, as well as an insight into some key inflation numbers, although core prices will be missing from this snapshot. French Q1 GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% while headline CPI inflation for May is expected to slow from 6.9% to 6.4%. Italian Q1 GDP is also expected to be confirmed at 0.5, and headline CPI for May is expected to slow from 8.7% to 7.5%. We finish up with the flash CPI inflation numbers from Germany, which is also expected to see a slowdown in headline from 7.6% to 6.7% in May. While this is expected to offer further encouragement that headline inflation in Europe is slowing, that isn't the problem that is causing investors sleepless nights. It's the level of core inflation and for that we'll have to wait until tomorrow and EU core CPI numbers for May, which aren't expected to show much sign of slowing.   We'll also get another insight into the US jobs markets and the number of vacancies in April, which is expected to fall from 9.59m in March to 9.4m. While a sizeable drop from the levels we were seeing at the end of last year of 11m, the number of vacancies is still over 2m above the levels 2 years ago, and over 3m above the levels they were pre-pandemic. The size of this number suggests that the labour market still has some way to go before we can expect to see a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate off its current low levels of 3.4%. EUR/USD – slipped to the 1.0673 area before rebounding with the 1.0610 area the next key support. We need to see a rebound above 1.0820 to stabilise.   GBP/USD – rebounded from the 1.2300 area with further support at the April lows at 1.2270. Pushed back to the 1.2450 area and the 50-day SMA, before slipping back. A move through 1.2460 is needed to open up the 1.2520 area.   EUR/GBP – slid to a 5-month low yesterday at 0.8628 just above the next support at 0.8620. A move below 0.8620 opens up the December 2022 lows at 0.8558. Main resistance remains at the 0.8720 area.   USD/JPY – ran into some selling pressure at 140.90 yesterday, slipping back to the 139.60 area which is a key support area. A break below 139.50 could see a return to the 137.00 area, thus delaying a potential move towards 142.50 which is the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the recent highs at 151.95 and lows at 127.20.   FTSE100 is expected to open 22 points lower at 7,500   DAX is expected to open 64 points lower at 15,845   CAC40 is expected to open 34 points lower at 7,175
US Inflation Eases, Fed Holds Rates; BoE Faces Dilemma Amid Strong Jobs Data; China Implements Stimulus Measures

US Inflation Eases, Fed Holds Rates; BoE Faces Dilemma Amid Strong Jobs Data; China Implements Stimulus Measures

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 14.06.2023 08:32
US inflation data gave investors a good reason to cheer up yesterday. The headline number fell more than expected to 4%, and core inflation met analysts' expectations at 5.3%. The biggest takeaway from yesterday's CPI report was, again, that easing in inflation was mostly driven by cooling energy prices, but shelter costs remained sticky – up by more than 8% on a yearly basis.   Yet because these shelter costs represent more than 40% of the core CPI, and private sector data is pointing at cooling housing costs, investors didn't see the sticky core inflation as a major issue. The producer price inflation data is due today, before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy decision, but the latter will unlikely change expectations for today's announcement. A softer-than-expected PPI number – due to soft energy and raw material prices, could, on the contrary, further soften the Fed hawks' hand.     In numbers, the expectation of a no rate hike at today's decision jumped past 90%, while the expectation of a no rate hike in July meeting rose from below 30% to above 35%. The S&P500 extended its advance to 4375, while Nasdaq 100 rallied past the 14900 level. Small companies followed suit, with Russell 2000 jumping to the highest levels since the mini banking crisis.     Tough accompanying talk?  The Fed's decision for today is considered as done and dusted with a no rate hike. But the chances are that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will sound sufficiently hawkish to let investors know that the war is not won just yet, because 1. Core inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, 2. US jobs market remains too strong to call victory on inflation, and 3. Equity valuations point at an overly optimistic market, at the current levels, the S&P500 trades at around 18 times its earnings forecast over the next year, and these levels are typically associated with times of healthy economic growth and rising corporate profits. But we are now in a period of looming recession odds, and falling profits.     Ouch, BoE!  Yesterday's jobs data in Britain printed blowout figures for April and May. The employment change rocketed to 250K in April, while the expectation was a fall from 180K to 150K. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 3.8%, and average earnings excluding bonus rose from 6.8% to 7.2%. Then, the jobless claims fell by more than 13K – while analysts expected a surge of more than 20K – hinting that the British job market will likely print solid figures for May as well.     While these are excellent news for Brits who could at least see their purchasing power partly resist to the terrible cost-of-living crisis – where eggs, milk and bread for example saw their prices rise by a whooping 30-and-something per cent, it makes the end of the BoE tightening look impossible for now.     The market prices in another 125bp hike this year, which will take the British policy rate to 5.75%, and there is around 20% chance for an additional 25bp by February next year.     And all this in a market where mortgage rates rise unbearably, and house prices tumble. The 2-year gilt yield took a lift yesterday and is preparing to flirt with the 5% mark. We are now at levels above the mini-budget crisis of Liz Truss, while the spread with the 10-year yield is widening, suggesting that the UK economy will hardly come out of this unharmed. On top, the FTSE 100 index has fallen well behind the rally recorded by the US and European stocks this month because of falling energy and commodity prices due to a disappointing Chinese growth. The only good news for the Brits is that the pound is being boosted by hawkish BoE expectations. Cable rallied past the 1.26 level and is slowly drilling above a long-term downtrending channel top. The trend and momentum indicators remain tilted to the upside, and the divergence between the Fed – preparing to call the end of its tightening cycle sometime in the coming meetings, and the BoE – which has no choice but to keep raising rates – remains supportive of further gains in Cable. We could see the pair regain the 1.30 level, last seen back in April 2022.      China cuts.  The People's Bank of China (PBoC) lowered its 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 10bp to 1.9% yesterday, a week after asking the state-run banks to lower their deposit rates. These are signals that the PBoC is preparing to lower its one-year loan rate tomorrow to give a jolt to its economy that has been unable to gather a healthy growth momentum after Covid measures were relaxed by the end of last year.     Copper futures jumped above their 200-DMA yesterday, though they remain comfortably within a broad downtrending channel building since the second half of January, while US crude rebounded from a two-week low yesterday but remains comfortably below its 50-DMA.     Final word.  Because the rally in tech stocks now looks overstretched and China is getting serious about boosting growth, we will likely start seeing investors take profit on their Long Big Tech positions and return to energy and mining sector to catch the next train which could be the one that leads to profits on an eventual Chinese reopening.   
Bank of England Confronts Troubling Inflation Report; Fed Chair Powell's Testimony Echoes Expected Path

Bank of England Confronts Troubling Inflation Report; Fed Chair Powell's Testimony Echoes Expected Path

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 22.06.2023 08:07
BoE decides after another bad inflation report.     Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell didn't say anything we didn't know, or we wouldn't expect in the first day of his semiannual testimony before the American lawmakers yesterday. He said that the Fed will continue hiking rates, but because they are getting closer to the destination, it's normal to slow down the pace. He repeated that two more hikes are a good guess, and that the economy will suffer a period of tight credit conditions, below-average growth, and higher unemployment to return to lower inflation.   The US 2-year yield pushed higher. The 10-year yield was flat given that higher short term yields point at higher recession odds for the long term. The gap between the 2 and the 10-year yield is again at 100bp.  In equities, the S&P500 gave back some field, but not all sectors suffered. Tech stocks pulled the index lower, financials and real estate were down, but energy stocks led gains as US crude jumped past $72pb on news that the US inventories dipped by around 1.2 mio barrel last week. Industrial, materials and utilities were up, as well, as a sign that a rotation toward the laggards could be happening rather than a broad-based moody selloff.  In currencies, the US dollar fell and is now testing the April-to-date ascending base - not because the Fed's Powell sounded more dovish, but because what's happening beyond the US borders makes the Fed look more dovish than what it really is.     By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank
UK Public Sector Borrowing Sees Decline in July: Market Insights - August 22, 2023

European Markets Flat as FTSE100 Lags, OPEC Meeting in Focus, Fed Releases Minutes

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 05.07.2023 08:27
European markets were mostly flat; the Stoxx600 remained close to its 50-DMA, while the FTSE 100 remained offered near its 200-DMA, near the 7544 level. The FTSE has been one of the biggest laggards of the year, as capital flew into the tech stocks. The slow Chinese reopening and the crumbling commodity prices didn't help FTSE extend the last year's outperformance to this year.   Happily, more rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) and the darkening economic and political picture for the UK is not a cause for concern for the British blue-chip index. A major part of their revenue comes from outside the UK. Therefore, a rotation from tech to value could throw a floor under the FTSE100's selloff near the 7300 level  if of course we don't see a global selloff due to recession and hawkish central banks-    OPEC meets industry heads  The barrel of oil remains sold near the 50-DMA as OPEC meeting with industry heads is due today. Everything that involves OPEC is an upside risk to oil prices. Yet any OPEC-related rally will attract top sellers and won't let OPEC reach stability around $80pb level. The major medium-term risk is that the unresponsive price action could hide a worsening global glut that could hit suddenly in the H2, and send oil prices higher. Until then, bears will keep selling.    Fed releases minutes  The Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the minutes of its latest policy meeting today, and there will clearly be a couple of hawkish sentences that will hit the headlines, given that the Fed officials paused their rate hikes in their June meeting, but their dot plot showed two more interest rate hikes before a real and a longer pause.   At this point, the Fed expectations went so hawkish that there is a growing chance of correction. Fed funds futures gives near 90% chance for a another 25bp hike in July, and another 25bp after that is more likely than not. No one expects or is positioned for a rate cut from the Fed this year. Unless there is another baking stress or chaos in the housing market, nothing could stop the Fed from pursuing its battle against inflation. And interestingly, Bloomberg research found out that interest rate increases in the US are benefitting savers more than they are costing mortgage payers, because many mortgages are on fixed rates for 30-years and they have yet to expire.  
Navigating the Path Ahead: Inflation, Catalysts, and Lessons from the 1970s

Forex Insights: Rising Real Yields, Evergrande Woes, and Dollar Strength

Ed Moya Ed Moya 21.08.2023 12:29
Soft landing hopes fizzle as real yields hit highest levels in a decade China jitters remain as Evergrande files for US bankruptcy Dollar index posts best win streak since May 2022  The Japanese yen is no longer acting like a safe haven currency. With global stocks having the worst week since March, dollar-yen appears poised to finish the week higher.  Wall Street has had a major reset, and now believes that interest rates will stay higher for longer, and is fearful that the Fed might have to deliver more tightly given the strength of the US economy. The global bond market selloff as taken treasury yields two levels that are forcing portfolio managers to adjust accordingly. Short term rates are too attractive, and that should provide some underlying strengths for the US dollar. Today, the yen is on firming footing but some of that is on profit-taking given the big week the dollar has had. With tech and communication stocks getting hit the hardest, expectations for a safe-haven trade could keep the dollar supported. The wildcard for the dollar trade will be Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, which could remain hawkish or possibly contain a dovish twist     The USD/JPY daily chart has already tested key levels that are making Japanese officials uncomfortable, but given the potential FX flows following Jackson Hole, it seems Japan will wait before intervening. This combination of a return of the king dollar and lagging Japanese yen has served to boost USD/JPY beyond 145.00 and towards major psychological support around the 150.00 level. As long as markets continue to bet on an inflation-fighting Fed and patient BOJ, USD/JPY could target the 148.00 region next week.  With any dovish surprises from Powell, a breakdown could occur below the noted 145.00 psychological support level.
Stocks Rebound Amid Rising Volatility: Analysis and Outlook

Stocks Rebound Amid Rising Volatility: Analysis and Outlook

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 22.08.2023 08:42
Stocks rebound, but volatility rises.  By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank       Stocks rebounded on Monday, in a move that looked more like a correction than a reaction to fresh news, as there was no fresh news that went against the slowing China rhetoric, nor against the fear that we will hear something sufficiently hawkish this Friday from Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech. At this point, the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations are mostly priced in, leaving room for some up and down moves. So yesterday's session was not only marked by a rebound in the S&P500 from the October to July ascending baseline, but also by a visible rise in volatility. Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.65% as well, but the US 2-year yield returned well above 5%, and the 10-year yield pushed to a fresh high since 2007.     One interesting thing is, in 2007, when the US 10-year yield was at these levels, the positioning in the market was deeply negative – meaning that investors expected the yields to rebound, while today the positioning is deeply positive, meaning that investors expect the yields to bounce lower. And that's understandable: the US 10-year yield was on a steady falling path in 2007, so there was a reason for investors to expect a rebound – which did not happen. In a similar way, today, we are just coming out of a long period of near zero rates, so for our eyes, the actual levels seem very high. That explains why many asset managers expect the yields to fall. There is also a growing interest in US 10-year TIPS – which are protected against inflation, and which hit the 2% mark for the first time since the GFC as well. But there is not much reason other than our low comparison levels that gives reason to an imminent reversal in market direction. The US data is strong, the labour market is tight, and inflation is slowing but 'significant upside risks' prevail. A recent study warned that unless the monthly CPI stays below the 0.2%, inflation is headed higher in 2024. So there is a chance that we won't see a downside correction in the US 10-year yield, and if that's not the case, the selloff could extend until the 10-year yield settles somewhere between 5-5.50%.     Anyway, the market mood got significantly better yesterday. Tech stocks fueled the rally in the US, as Nvidia jumped 8.5% yesterday, a day before the release of its Q2 results. Nvidia'd better meet its $11bn sales forecast for last quarter, otherwise, there is a chance that we will see a sizeable downside correction.     In Europe, oil stocks shouldered yesterday's rally, as the barrel of US crude made an attempt above the $82pb, on lower OPEC+ exports and on the back of a golden cross formation on a daily chart where the 50-DMA crossed above the 200-DMA. But yesterday, that wasn't the case. Oil's positive attempt remained short-lived, on the contrary, and the barrel of crude is preparing to test the $80pb support to the downside again this morning. The market is driven by two major forces: the supply tightness and the Chinese demand expectations. These days, the Chinese demand expectations are very much in focus, which could help the oil bears take advantage for selling the recent rally in oil prices. But tighter OPEC rhetoric will remain a major support into the 200-DMA, near $76pb.  
Manning the Renminbi Barricade: Navigating FX Markets Amid Chinese Defenses

Manning the Renminbi Barricade: Navigating FX Markets Amid Chinese Defenses

ING Economics ING Economics 22.08.2023 08:48
FX Daily: Manning the renminbi barricade In quiet summer FX markets, the top story remains Chinese authorities' defence of the renminbi, This stands to be a long campaign given that USD/CNY is trading near 7.30 for good reason. Elsewhere, tech stocks are making US equities look bid even though steadily higher US Treasury yields pose a challenge. And looks out for BRICS expansion news today.   USD: 'We've got tech stocks' US equity markets continue to outperform. This seems largely down to the rally in tech stocks on the AI bandwagon, where Nvidia's 2Q results are widely anticipated for tomorrow. US equity performance is adding to the sense of 'US exceptionalism', backed also by better growth numbers and a central bank that has more reason than most to stay hawkish late into its tightening cycle. There is only second-tier US macro data today, but with US Treasury yields continuing to push higher, headwinds to the equity rally are growing, and temporarily parking funds in the dollar paying 5.30% in overnight rates doesn't seem like a bad idea. Equally, we expect the dollar to stay largely bid into Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair, Jay Powell. Two other highlights today. The first is the People's Bank of China's battle to keep USD/CNY under the 7.30 area. In addition to representing their displeasure with USD/CNY levels by printing very low onshore fixings (7.1992 last night), yesterday it seemed as though the focus was on the funding side where 1m CNH implied yields spiked over 5% (the highest since 2018) making it more expensive to run CNH short positions. As mentioned recently, Chinese FX intervention is opaque, but another measure to support the renminbi would be cutting the required reserves on FX deposits. Brief dips in USD/CNH see the dollar offered across the board, but with Chinese authorities cutting official interest rates, we suspect any CNH gains will be limited and temporary. Also today we see the start of the BRICS summit in South Africa. Expansion tops the agenda and names in the frame we think could be the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Bangladesh - all of which joined the BRICS New Development Bank in 2021. It would be a massive surprise were Saudi Arabia to join the grouping - which would inevitably lead to speculation over oil being priced in non-dollar currencies and a headline that may temporarily hit the dollar. DXY looks very comfortable within the 102.70-103.70 range.
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Nvidia's Remarkable Q2 Earnings Spark Excitement

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 24.08.2023 10:56
Amazing Nvidia.  By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   Nvidia announced STUNNING results when it released its Q2 earnings yesterday after the bell. The company reported $13.5bn sales last quarter, well above its $11bn projection, and said that it expects $16bn sales for next quarter, up from $12.6bn forecast last quarter. And oh, earnings jumped to $2.70 per share, versus $2.09 expected by analysts, and the most-loved chipmaker of the year approved $25bn in share buybacks. There is nothing an investor could ask more. The market expectations were sky-high, the results went to the moon, the forecasts for this quarter are as stunning, and the company is expected to earn around $30bn in FY2024 because Nvidia is not and will not be concerned about the industry-wide slump in chips demand, thanks to a decent surge in demand for AI processors in data centers. Magic is happening for Nvidia. So, the stock price jumped 10% in the afterhours trading to flirt with $518 per share, and Nvidia news has a boosting effect on technology stocks, if nothing by confirming that all the talk around the AI-craze was not empty, after all. Nasdaq futures are up by around 1.23% this morning, the S&P500 futures are also in the positive, and further good news is that the yields are down from Europe to US, on meagre PMI numbers released yesterday. And that is the perfect combo for the tech stocks – which have, so far this year, been – unquestionably - the best place to be in the S&P500 this year.    
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Dream JOLTS Data Sparks Optimism and Market Gains

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 30.08.2023 09:43
Dream JOLTS data By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank     Yesterday was a typical 'bad news is good news' day. Risk sentiment in the US and across the globe was boosted by an unexpected dip in US job openings to below 9 mio jobs in July, the lowest levels since more than two years, and an unexpected fall in consumer confidence in August. The weak data pushed the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks to the sidelines, and bolstered the expectation of a pause in September, and tilted the probabilities in favour of a no hike in November, as well. $    Note that the latest JOLTS data printed the ideal picture for the Fed: Job vacancies eased, but hiring was moderate and the layoffs remained near historically low levels. The data also suggested that the era of Great Resignation, where quit rates hit a record, could be over, as people quitting their jobs retreated to levels last seen before the pandemic. The US 2-year yield dived 15bp, the 10-year yield fell 8bp, while the S&P500 jumped nearly 1.50% to above its 50-DMA and closed the session at a spitting distance from the 4500 level. 90% of the S&P stocks gained yesterday; even the Big Pharma which had a first glance at which medicines will be subject to price negotiations with Medicare held their ground. But of course, tech stocks led the rally, with Nasdaq 100 closing the session with more than a 2% jump. Tesla was one of the biggest gainers of the session with a more than a 7.5% jump yesterday.    US and European futures suggest a bullish open amid the US optimism and news of upcoming deposit and mortgage rate cuts from Chinese banks.    On the data front, all eyes are on the US ADP report and the latest GDP update. The ADP report is expected to reveal below 200K new private job additions in August, while the US growth is expected to be revised from 2% to 2.4% for the Q2 with core PCE prices seen down from 4.90% to 3.80%. If the data is in line with expectations, we shall see yesterday's optimism continue throughout today. Again, what we want is to see – in the order of importance: 1. Slowing price pressure, 2. Looser, but still healthy jobs market, 3. Slowing but not contracting economy to ensure a soft landing. We will see if that's feasible.     In Europe, however, that slow landing seems harder to achieve. Today, investors will keep an eye on the latest inflation updates from euro-area countries, and business and sentiment surveys. We expect to see some further red flags regarding the health of the European economy due to tighter financial conditions in Europe and the energy crisis. German Chamber of Commerce and Industry warned yesterday that German businesses are cutting investments and move production abroad due to high energy prices at home. The EURUSD flirted with 1.09 yesterday, as investors trimmed their long dollar positions after the weak JOLTS data. The AUDUSD rebounded, even though the latest CPI print showed that inflation in Australia slowed below 5% in July, a 17-month low. In the UK, shop prices fell to a 10-month low. But it won't be enough for central bankers to cry victory just yet, because the positive pressure in energy prices remains a major concern for the months ahead. The barrel of American crude is pushing toward the $82pn level, with improved trend and momentum dynamics hinting that the bullish development could further extend.  
US Weekly Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since February; Apple Shares Slide Amid China's iPhone Crackdown; USD/JPY Shows Volatility Amid Interest Rate Fears and Tech Stock Woes

US Weekly Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since February; Apple Shares Slide Amid China's iPhone Crackdown; USD/JPY Shows Volatility Amid Interest Rate Fears and Tech Stock Woes

Ed Moya Ed Moya 08.09.2023 13:45
US weekly jobless claims drop to lowest levels since February Apple shares slide as China’s crackdown on iPhone use grows; Losing over $200 billion in market value BOJ’s Nakagawa reiterates stance that BOJ and gov’t are monitoring FX rates and impact on economy The US dollar index hit its highest level since March as risk aversion runs wild on higher interest rate fears and as global growth concerns spread to the US.  The dollar is poised to have an eight straight week of gains, but that is somewhat capped against the Japanese yen.  US stocks are falling on concerns that the Fed might not be done tightening and over uncertainty over how far China’s iPhone ban will extend into other parts of American technology.  Also weighing on sentiment is the global growth story that remains uninspiring following slightly better-than-expected China trade data and as fears grow for German industrial output.  For the US economy, the labor market is not softening quickly enough and that makes the Fed stick to the hawkish script that they might not be done raising rates.  The yen got a minor boost after BOJ Nakagawa stated that the central bank will closely coordinate with the government in monitoring foreign exchange rates and paying due attention to any impacts on the economy. Japanese officials will remain consistent with this messaging, but markets won’t react that much unless we significantly more yen weakness. Apple The Nasdaq is sinking as one bad Apple spoils a bunch of mega-cap tech stocks.  Apple’s growth story is heavily reliant on China and if the Beijing crackdown intensifies that could pose a big problem to the bunch of other mega-cap tech companies that rely on China.  The WSJ reported that China is banning iPhone use for government officials at work.  China is delivering some harsh restrictions on overseas technologies, and this could really hamper Apple’s revenue outlook as China is their largest foreign market.  The mega-cap tech trade appears ripe for pullback, but most investors will likely be eyeing the early AI winners and not so many companies that are still in the early stages of their investment.  Microsoft and Nvidia will likely outperform their peers.    USD/JPY Daily Chart     Earlier verbal intervention might have helped stall the dollar’s rally against the yen, but this latest pressure on tech stocks is significantly weighing on sentiment, which could help keep the yen supported. Japan officials are getting unexpected support from a bad Apple outlook, which help support a dollar-yen dip back to the lows seen earlier in the month.  The dollar temporarily surged after jobless claims fell to the lowest levels since February, but some are expecting that to influenced by the impact of Hurricane Idalia. The key levels for dollar-yen remain 145.80 and 148.00, with volatility expected to remain elevated given a breach of either the 145 or 150 levels.  If the broader dollar strengthening cycle remains that will eventually tip the scales of the massive divergence in central bank policy. One more Fed rate hike getting fully priced in might not be enough to get USD/JPY back to last October’s high, so you might start to see some bearish positioning.    
BOJ Verbal Intervention Sparks Market Reactions and Sets Stage for Eventful Week

BOJ Verbal Intervention Sparks Market Reactions and Sets Stage for Eventful Week

Ed Moya Ed Moya 12.09.2023 10:35
Post-BOJ Initial reaction – yen jumped, dollar fell, gold rallied, and equities rose. Some of these moves have started to reverse Japan’s Overnight Swap Indexes have an implied rate of 0.042% by the January 23rd BOJ policy meeting US 3-year Treasury attracts highest yield since 2007 (4.660% vs 4.650% pre-sale) The Japanese yen surged in Asia following BOJ Governor Ueda’s verbal intervention. Ueda noted that the BOJ might know enough about wage pressures by year-end, in other words if they could be ready to abandon negative rates.  The BOJ blackout period typically starts two days before the first policy meeting, which means we could have a full week of verbal intervention before the September 21st policy meeting starts. Japan officials will likely hesitate to actually intervene until some of the major US risk events are behind us. ​ No sense in selling dollars before seeing the latest US inflation report, which could easily upend any action. ​ A new week is here, and it looks like financial markets were ready for a major reset. Dollar-yen bearishness could also gain momentum if risk appetite deteriorates here. The yen got a boost after some weekend reading reaffirmed Wall Street’s belief that the Fed will pause rate increases in September, then review the latest economic data and assess if more rate hikes are needed in November/December.  The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos, who’s also known as the Fed whisperer has markets convinced that officials view the risks as more balanced, so a September surprise is very unlikely. It seems many risk events are on this week’s calendar, so we could see other drivers besides more chatter from Japanese officials and US CPI/retail sales data/inflation expectations.  The $AAPL This will be a big week for tech given the recent slide with some of the mega-cap tech stocks.  Apple was in the headlines after they decided to stick with Qualcomm’s 5G modems for their smartphones. Apple was trying to produce similar chips as soon as 2024, but it seems they aren’t there just yet.  The Qualcomm deal for Snapdragon 5G Modem-RF Systems will cover smartphone launches in 2024, 2025 and 2026.  This is great news for Qualcomm shares, while Apple shares will mostly await what happens with Tuesday’s important launch event.  Expectations are for Apple to unveil the new iPhone 15 and show how AI will be used.   $TSLA Tesla is also getting a boost after Morgan Stanley upgraded the EV giant and raised their price target from $250 to a street-high $400 a share.  The upgrade was driven by hopes that their Dojo supercomputer could help accelerate the adoption of robotaxis and network services.   Equities and risk appetite will have a handful of events to determine if a rebound is justified: Tuesday is all about the Apple event. Wednesday focuses on the US inflation report, which should show rising gasoline prices sent headline inflation higher, but the core readings are likely to remain subdued.  Thursday will be busy with the UAW strike deadline, a potential pause by the ECB, slight labor weakness from jobless claims data, and a soft retail sales report.  For Wall Street, Thursday’s focus should fall on the UAW strike deadline, which falls a minute before midnight.  A potential UAW strike of 10 days could trigger a recession for the Michigan economy and cost $5.6 billion in US GDP.  Friday contains the release of the University of Michigan inflation expectations, which are important for the higher for longer trade. Any yen strength could be short-lived until we get beyond some of the big market events of the week.   USD/JPY Daily Chart      Bearish price on USD/JPY , a daily chart of which is shown, is tentatively respecting key trendline support that started from the July 28th low.  The knee-jerk selloff spurred from BOJ Governor Ueda’s verbal intervention might not be the beginning of a new trend just yet.  Given the state of the US economy and its resilience, it appears that Japan’s central bank remains very concerned with the yen’s levels.  If USD dollar strength reemerges, the 147.80 level remains critical resistance.  On the other hand, if risk aversion runs wild, the 145.00 level provides initial support, followed by the 143.75 level.  
Nasdaq Slips as Tech Stocks Falter, US Inflation Data Awaits

Nasdaq Slips as Tech Stocks Falter, US Inflation Data Awaits

ING Economics ING Economics 13.09.2023 08:47
Asia Morning Bites US inflation report out tonight could see Asian markets mark time today.   Global Macro and Markets Global markets:  US stocks are up one day, down the next at the moment. Yesterday, it was time for some losses led by tech stocks following an Apple event to launch the iPhone 15. The S&P 500 dropped 0.57% while the NASDAQ lost 1.04%. This was actually in line with the steer from equity futures yesterday. But today, they are giving little away. Chinese stocks fell also. The Hang Seng was down 0.39% and the CSI 300 was down 0.18%. 2Y US Treasury yields nosed up 2.9bp to 5.02%, while the 10Y Treasury yield was marginally lower by 0.8bp taking it to 4.28%. EURUSD is slightly higher at 1.0758, but spent a lot of time yesterday exploring the downside before recovering. This hasn’t helped the AUD, which has been steady to slightly weaker over the last 24 hours, sitting at 0.6427 currently. Cable also slid yesterday and made a less robust recovery than the euro, leaving it at 1.2492 currently. And the JPY is also softer, rising to 147.126.  The PBoC’s recent browbeating of the market still seems to be keeping a lid on the CNY, which remains at 7.2923. We’d expect it to test the 7.30 level again in the coming days, though tomorrow’s data dump will need to be taken into account – we think it might be slightly less negative than in recent months…The KRW had a positive day, rising 0.28% to 1327.64, and the THB weakened 0.38% to 35.640, but there were few other notable movements in the rest of the Asia FX pack.   G-7 macro:  Today, we get August inflation data from the US. And the news will be mixed. Headline inflation will likely rise from 3.2% to 3.6%YoY - all the helpful base effects that helped lower inflation in the first half of the year are used up now, and the month-on-month rate at 0.6% (expected), is still far too high to result in anything other than an inflation increase. But it is exactly the opposite story for core inflation, which has been much stickier, but could now benefit from more helpful base effects, and the fact that most of the price increases are in the non-core food and energy sectors. We should see core inflation falling to 4.4% (consensus 4.3%) from 4.7% YoY. Exactly how the market takes this mix of data is difficult to judge in advance, and could come down to small deviations from the consensus numbers on both figures. Other than this, the UK releases a raft of production, trade, construction and monthly GDP data for July.   India: Trade balance data for August will likely show the deficit in the -USD20bn to -USD21bn range. Export growth has been on a slow but steady decline for a long time, and was -15.86%YoY in July. Looked at in USD levels terms, exports are still trending slightly lower, but the rate of annual decline should moderate to low single digits this month. Inflation data released yesterday evening came in at 6.83%, only slightly higher than our 6.7% forecast, and slightly lower than the consensus 7.1% estimate.   South Korea: The jobless rate unexpectedly declined to 2.4% in August (vs 2.8% July, 2.9% market consensus). The construction sector added jobs for the first time in six months but manufacturing shed jobs for a second month. With summer holidays underway, hotels and restaurant jobs gained. Rising pipeline inflation raised concerns that consumer prices could rise more than expected in the coming months. Import prices surged 4.4% MoM nsa (0.2% in July), the largest increase in 17 months, but due to base effects the YoY growth still fell -9.0%YoY (vs -13.6% in July). Weak currency and strong commodity prices are the two main reasons for the price increases. The KRW is hovering above the 1,300 level and oil prices continue to rise. We are concerned that consumer price inflation may rise more than expected. The tighter job market and rising prices will support the BoK’s hawkish stance. But we still don’t think this will push them to deliver additional hikes by the end of this year given sluggish exports and weak investment.   What to look out for: US CPI inflation and China data South Korea unemployment (13 September) Japan PPI inflation (13 September) India trade balance (13 September) US CPI inflation (13 September) Japan core machine orders and industrial production (14 September) Australia unemployment (14 September) ECB policy meeting (14 September) US initial jobless claims, PPI and retail sales (14 September) China medium term lending rate (15 September) Indonesia trade balance (15 September) China retail sales, industrial production (15 September) US University of Michigan sentiment (15 September)
Breaking Business News: Aaron Rodgers' Shocking Exit, Google's Defense, and Central Banks' Inflation Battle

Breaking Business News: Aaron Rodgers' Shocking Exit, Google's Defense, and Central Banks' Inflation Battle

FXMAG Education FXMAG Education 13.09.2023 14:36
In the ever-evolving landscape of the business world, it's essential to stay updated on the latest developments and trends that can shape industries and markets. This week's business roundup covers a wide range of topics, from the abrupt end of Aaron Rodgers' season with the Jets to central banks' strategies to combat inflation. Let's delve into the most significant highlights and their potential impacts.   Aaron Rodgers' Short-Lived Stint with the Jets Aaron Rodgers, one of the NFL's most prominent quarterbacks, saw his season with the Jets come to an abrupt end after just four plays. This unexpected turn of events has left football fans and analysts puzzled, raising questions about the future of the Jets' quarterback situation.   Google's Defense Against Anti-Competitive Practices Amid ongoing scrutiny, Google has defended itself against allegations of anti-competitive practices. The tech giant argues that its continued dominance in the search market is a result of its commitment to quality, pushing back against accusations of unfair competition.   Central Banks Pondering Higher Rates to Tackle Inflation In response to rising inflation, central banks are contemplating the possibility of keeping interest rates higher for an extended period. This strategic shift could have far-reaching implications for financial markets and economic stability.   AI Transforming iPhones and Apple Watches Artificial intelligence continues to reshape the tech landscape, with AI-driven advancements making their mark on iPhones and Apple Watches. These innovations have the potential to enhance user experiences and open up new possibilities for Apple's product lineup.   Ford's Ambitious Plans for F-150 Hybrid Pickup Production Ford is gearing up to double its production of F-150 hybrid pickups, a bold move in the electric vehicle market. As consumer demand for eco-friendly options grows, this expansion could position Ford as a key player in the hybrid vehicle sector.   Leadership Shake-Up at BP as CEO Resigns BP, one of the world's leading energy companies, faces a leadership change as its CEO steps down due to work-related relationships. This development raises questions about corporate governance and the challenges faced by major players in the energy sector.   Earnings Report Highlights While these overarching topics dominate the business landscape, it's essential to keep an eye on earnings reports from key companies. Upcoming reports from Cracker Barrel, Adobe, and Lennar will provide valuable insights into their financial performance and potential market impacts. In a rapidly changing business environment, staying informed about these developments is crucial for investors, professionals, and anyone interested in the world of finance and technology. Keep a close watch on these evolving stories as they continue to shape the business landscape. (For more in-depth analysis and insights, stay connected with our sponsor, Mercury, and their article on the metrics that VCs and investors consider when evaluating startups.)
Shift in Central Bank Sentiment: Czech National Bank Hints at a 50bp Rate Cut, Impact on CZK Expected

Markets Await US Jobs Data: Tech Stocks Soar, Japanese Yen Surges, and Eyes on Federal Reserve Outlook

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 12.12.2023 14:52
Elsewhere...  The nice jump in the Japanese yen pulled the dollar index lower yesterday. Of course, the EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY all made a similar move. The US bonds, on the other hand, were little changed yesterday – for once – as traders sat on their hands ahead of this week's much-awaited US jobs data, while technology stocks were on fire yesterday. Alphabet jumped more than 5% after Google released Gemini – the largest and most capable AI model it has ever built, and AMD jumped nearly 10% after the company unveiled a chip that will run AI software faster than rival products. But rival Nvidia was little hit by the news, as its chips gained 2.40% yesterday. The AI demand is big enough for everyone to benefit amply from it.   Today, all eyes are on the US jobs data.  According to a consensus of analyst estimates on Bloomberg, the US economy may have added 180'000 new nonfarm jobs in November, the pay may have risen slightly faster on a monthly basis, and the unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.9%. The fact that the data released earlier this week hinted at a clear loosening in the US jobs market makes many investors think that today's official data will also follow the loosening trend. If the data is soft enough, the rally in the US bonds could continue and the US 10-year yields could have a taste of the 4% psychological mark, while a stronger-than-expected figure could help scale back the dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations but could hardly bring the hawks back to the market before next week's FOMC decision.    
Hawkish Notes and Global Markets: An Overview

Hawkish Notes and Global Markets: An Overview

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 25.01.2024 12:37
Say something hawkish, I'm giving up on you By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   The week started on a positive note on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. Equities in both Europe and the US gained on Monday. The tech stocks continued to do the heavy lifting with Nvidia hitting another record. The positive chip vibes also marked the European trading session; the Dutch semiconductor manufacturer ASML regained its status as the third-largest listed company in Europe, surpassing Nestle, thanks to an analyst upgrade.  Moving forward, the earnings announcements will take the center stage, with Netflix due to announce its Q4 results today after the bell. The streaming giant expects to have added millions more of new paid subscribers to its platform after it scrapped password sharing last year.   Away from the sunny US stocks, the situation is much less exciting for China. Right now, the CSI 300 stocks trade near 5-year lows and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong are trading with the deepest discount to the mainland peers in 15 years, as the Chinese interventions are said to be less felt in Hong Kong than in the mainland. Today, though, the Chinese stocks are better bid because Chinese Premier Li Qiang called for more effective measures to stabilize the slumping Chinese stocks, but the truth is, investors left Chinese stocks because of the ferocious government crackdown on most loved Chinese companies. Nothing less than drastic financial support would be enough to bring investors back.  The Japanese stocks continue to be the bright spot among the Asian equity markets. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) negative interest rates, the cheap yen and the positive outcomes of the tech war between the US and China have been pushing the Japanese Nikkei index to multi-decade highs, and these factors are not ready to reverse just yet. Today, the BoJ didn't only announce that it would keep the interest rates unchanged at -0.10% and the upper band for the 10-yer yield steady at 1%, but the bank lowered its inflation forecasts citing the decline in oil prices. We haven't heard the BoJ presser at the time of writing but lowering inflation forecast highlights that there is no emergency to make any changes to the BoJ policy, even less so after a powerful earthquake hit the island at the very beginning of the year. On the contrary, if inflation – which is the bad side of low rates – is under control, the bank would do better to keep the rates low and its economy supported. As such, the USDJPY remains bid above the 148 level after the BoJ decision and before the post-decision presser. The long yen trade looks much less appetizing today than it did by the end of last year. Yet going short the yen is a risky option considering the rising risk of a verbal intervention when the USDJPY approaches the 150 level. Therefore, the USDJPY will likely waver between the 145/150 range, until there is more clarity about the timing of the BoJ normalization.   Elsewhere, the day is expected to unfold slowly. Investors will monitor the Richmond manufacturing index and await Netflix's earnings release. Additionally, attention is on Donald Trump, who has gained favoritism after Ron DeSantis withdrew his support and endorsed Mr. Trump for this year's presidential race. The potential impact of a Trump victory on financial markets is challenging to quantify; he may adopt a tougher stance on China, implement tax cuts, and increase spending, leading to mixed effects.   For those who missed out on the meme stock frenzy, it's however intriguing to observe Trump's special-purpose acquisition company, DWAC, which surged nearly 90% yesterday.  

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