supports

Higher timeframes Last week, the pair closed with a candle of uncertainty, returning to the area of attraction and influence of the daily short-term trend (1.0719) and the final level of the weekly golden cross of the Ichimoku, which is currently at 1.0717. Consolidation below these levels and a breakdown of the zone of the daily upward correction (1.0636) will bring back the downward trend and bearish targets to the market.       The nearest prospects for strengthening bearish sentiment in the current situation can be noted in the support zone of 1.0579 - 1.0557 - 1.0515 - 1.0497 (monthly Fibonacci Kijun + weekly Senkou Span B + downside target for breaking the daily cloud). If buyers return to the market, attention will be focused on bullish targets, which are still located in the area of the daily cloud. The resistance levels of the daily (1.0810 - 1.0864 - 1.0918) and weekly (1.0789 - 1.0862 - 1.0866) Ichimoku crosses, as well as the daily cloud (1.0806 - 1.0956) and the monthly medium-term trend (1.0901), currently serve as bullish benchmarks.     H4 - H1 On lower timeframes, buyers currently have the upper hand. They have established themselves above key levels, turning them into supports in case of a correction. The key levels are currently located at 1.0731-18 (central pivot point + weekly long-term trend). If the ascent continues within the day, resistance from the classic pivot points R2 (1.0806) and R3 (1.0831) may come into play.     Higher timeframes Last week, buyers tested important levels, such as the weekly short-term trend (1.2492) and the final levels of the daily death cross of the Ichimoku (1.2492 - 1.2536), but were unable to close the week above them. With the start of a new trading week, these levels have maintained their positions and continue to be the nearest significant benchmarks for the emergence of new bullish prospects. The location of the most important support levels for the bears on this segment has not changed either. The support zone is quite wide and includes the levels of the weekly Ichimoku cross (1.2343 - 1.2240 - 1.2137) and the monthly medium-term trend (1.2302).     H4 - H1 On lower timeframes, the pair tested the strength of the weekly long-term trend (1.2428) and consolidated below it. The next targets for a decline are now the supports of the classic pivot points S2 (1.2373) and S3 (1.2307). Consolidation above the key levels of 1.2428 - 1.2476 (weekly long-term trend + central pivot point) will bring back the buyers. The next bullish targets within the day will be the resistances of the classic pivot points (1.2513 - 1.2579 - 1.2616).     The technical analysis of the situation uses: Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels Lower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)      

EUR/USD: H4 - H1 On the lower timeframes, the advantage has again shifted in favor of the bears. However, the bulls are currently rising to retest the key levels of 1.0925-27 (central pivot point of the day + weekly long-term trend) in order to once again question the prevailing advantage.   Classic pivot points may have significance for intraday work, which today are at the following levels: 1.0886 - 1.0859 - 1.0820 (supports) and 1.0952 - 1.0991 - 1.1018 (resistances).    

H4 - H1 The main advantage on the lower timeframes currently belongs to the bears. Their reference points are the supports of the classic pivot points (1.2574 - 1.2516 - 1.2428) and the target for breaking the H4 cloud (1.2521 - 1.2485). Today, the key levels 1.2662 (central pivot point of the day) and 1.2711 (weekly long-term trend) serve as resistances. Establishing a foothold above them will change the current balance of power and open the way to intraday targets of 1.2720 - 1.2808 - 1.2866 (resistances of the classic pivot points).    

EUR/USD Higher timeframes Bulls continue to rise, but failed to close above the high of the daily correction (1.1012) yesterday. This mark and the next high of the weekly correction (1.1096) remain the main targets of the current upward movement. The nearest supports of the higher timeframes today are 1.0936 (daily short-term trend) and 1.0901 (monthly medium-term trend).       H4 - H1 On lower timeframes, the main advantage now belongs to the bulls. As of writing, they are testing the first resistance of the classic pivot points (1.1031), and further targets for an intraday rise are R2 (1.1053) and R3 (1.1080). The key levels today serve as supports and are located at 1.1004 (central pivot point) and 1.0939 (weekly long-term trend); intermediate supports are S1 (1.0982) and S2 (1.0955). The weekly long-term trend (1.0939) is currently reinforced by the daily short-term trend (1.0936), so a consolidation below will help change the current balance of power not only on lower timeframes but also on the daily timeframe.

GBP/USD Higher timeframes Yesterday, on the daily chart, the pound crossed the lower border of the monthly cloud (1.2893). This is an important monthly level, so it may yet have its influence and, thanks to the force of attraction, delay the continuation of the rise. If the bulls maintain activity, the upper border of the monthly cloud (1.3142) serves as their next target in this area.     H4 - H1 On lower timeframes, the bulls are developing an upward trend movement, having a clear advantage. It should be noted that during trend movement, corrective declines are as natural as rises. At the moment, we observe a corrective slowdown around 1.2957 (first resistance of the classic pivot points). Further upward targets within the day are R2 (1.2986) and R3 (1.3038). In case the current correction deepens, the chart on lower timeframes suggests the following levels as supports today: 1.2905 (central pivot point) - 1.2876 (S1) - 1.2824 (S2) - 1.2806 (weekly long-term trend). *** The technical analysis of the situation uses: Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels Lower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)    

Today’s early Asian session’s swift rally to a fresh all-time high is likely to be driven by a thin liquidity trading environment rather than the Israel-Hamas geopolitical war risk premium. Spot Gold’s portfolio hedging role may gain traction as global recession risk resurfaces. Medium-term uptrend phase remains intact but may shape a minor pull-back below US$2,152 key short-term pivotal resistance with immediate supports at US$2,032/2,018. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Gold Technical: Potential multi-week bullish movement kickstarts” published on 21 November 2023. Click here for a recap.” The price actions of Spot Gold (XAU/USD) have continued to push higher since our last analysis where it clear above the short-term resistance zone of US$2,028/2,037and rallied to retest its current all-time high level of US$2,075 (printed in August 2020) on last Friday, 1 December 2023. In today’s (4 December) early Asian session before the opening of Tokyo trading hours, Spot Gold spurted upwards to hit a fresh intraday all-high of around US$2,148 before it almost gave up all its gains to trade at US$2,083 at this time of the writing. Despite an uplift in geopolitical tensions in the Middle Eastern region after Israel resumed its offensive operations against Hamas in Gaza over the weekend, the geopolitical war risk premium is not being priced in the current price actions of oil where WTI crude remained soft ex-post OPEC+ meeting and it traded lower in today’s Asian session with an intraday loss of -1.10%. Hence today’s intraday swift rally that lasted for around thirty minutes towards a fresh all-time high is likely to be driven by a thin liquidity environment at the start of the week rather than fundamental catalysts.   Potential global recession scenario is supporting a medium-term uptrend     Fig 1: US 10-year Treasury real yield medium-term trend with breakeven inflation as of 4 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)     Fig 2: S&P 500 – Spot Gold ratio as of 4 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The next golden question will be is the current medium-term uptrend for Spot Gold sustainable after a rally of +18% from its 6 October 2023 low, and a third major retest on the US$2,075 high printed on 7 August 2020? Using an intermarket analysis approach (see Fig 1 & 2), the medium-term uptrend phase low of 6 October 2023 seen in Spot Gold has coincided closely with the recent softness of the US 10-year Treasury real yield as it has declined by 47 basis points from 2.47% printed on 6 October 2023. Also, the US 10-year breakeven rate (market-based implied US inflation rate 10 years from today) is looking vulnerable for a bearish breakdown below 2.10% suggesting that the US 10-year Treasury real yield still has room for further potential downside that in turn lowers the opportunity costs of holding gold. Secondly, the long-term monthly ratio chart of the US S&P 500 against Spot Gold has continued to exhibit potential S&P 500 underperformance against Spot Gold as it has remained below a former major ascending support from August 2011 low with bearish momentum reading seen in the monthly RSI indicator of the S&P 500 – Spot Gold ratio; a sign of a potential imminent US recession.