stock markets

It’s been a mixed day of trade in Europe and the US is poised to open marginally lower as traders take a step back following a lively start to the year.

The Fed minutes may have put a slight dampener on things although I’m not entirely sure. The narrative from the central bank is very much in line with what we should expect. Policymakers are desperately trying to convince markets how serious they are about defeating inflation, to the point that investors are seemingly paying less attention.

I can understand the Fed’s caution given the erratic nature of the data and its own credibility issue having turned up casually late to the party. The risk now is that it overcompensates during the exit from tightening and pushes the economy into a deeper downturn than necessary. This is why we may well see it maintain the hawkish position in the near term but ultimately not follow through and instead quickly pivot, perhaps later in the quarter.

That will all depend on the data and the jobs

ATVI and MSFT - Ones To Watch After The Transaction

ATVI and MSFT - Ones To Watch After The Transaction

FXStreet News FXStreet News 19.01.2022 16:02
Activision stock surges as Microsoft gets game. ATVI to be bought for $95 a share or nearly $69 billion in all-cash deal. Microsoft to pay a $3 billion break fee if the deal does not go ahead. Activision (ATVI) shares surged to $90 early yesterday as news broke of a deal with Microsoft (MSFT). The Wall Street Journal appears to have first broken the story, which saw ATVI stock surge straight to $90 or up nearly 40% on the previous close. The story was soon confirmed as Microsoft released a press statement. Activision Stock News Microsoft would pay $95 a share, which puts the deal down at $68.7 billion. The deal is all cash and is due to close in 2023. Activision CEO Bobby Kotick is likely to leave the company in 2023 once the deal closes, according to reports. Activision has been under intense scrutiny after accusations of sexual harassment surfaced. The company has reportedly confirmed the exit of 37 employees since the news broke back in July, and Activision has taken action against 44 other employees, according to the WSJ. The situation with regard to Sony gets interesting as Sony shares dropped sharply yesterday once the rumour was confirmed. Sony was Activision's's largest customer in 2020, accounting for nearly 20% of its revenue. Sony Playstation boss Jim Ryan had expressed "deep concern" at the harrassment allegations and said, "We do not believe their statements of response properly address the situation." Sony now finds itself staring down the possibility that some major Activision titles such as Call of Duty and Candy Crush will no longer be available on the Sony Playstation platform. It appears from the latest reports that Microsoft took advantage of the timing to negotiate the deal. According to Bloomberg, Microsoft senior executives suggested that PlayStation head Phil Spencer contact Activision and make it clear that Microsoft had concerns. Microsoft also wanted to keep an eye on the fallout and see if a potential deal could be done. The company had been on the lookout for acquisitions in the gaming space. Activision Stock Forecast The deal is set at $95 and given that Microsoft has agreed to pay $3 billion if the deal falls through it must be fairly confident of getting it completed. Currently, ATVI shares are trading at $82.53 in Wednesday's premarket. As is usually the case in a merger, the shares of the target company usually trade at a lower price than the takeover price due to risk premium. Occasionally, they can trade above the takeover price if investors believe the offer is too low or they anticipate a bidding war from another pursuer. In this case, there cannot be too many companies with $69 billion in cash waiting in the wings. Activision (ATVI) chart, daily Microsoft Stock News By comparison Microsoft stock fell on the news. The deal will immediately be accretive to earnigs on completion. MSFT shares closed just over 2% lower on Tuesday after the announcement. Technically, the stock looks to be under pressure with $318.23 the bullish pivot and the next key support coming from the 200-day moving average at $292. Microsoft (MSFT) stock chart, daily
Shiba Inu price set to crash by 70% as critical support weakens

Shiba Inu price set to crash by 70% as critical support weakens

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.01.2022 16:06
Shiba Inu price sees bears drilling down on an important area of support. SHIB price could see a nose dive reaction later today should the US session see accelerated selloffs. A break below the 200-day SMA could hold 70% of losses before plenty of support is found. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price continues to be controlled by bears after the dead-cat bounce in stock markets yesterday evening. With the Nasdaq closing sharply lower, giving up earlier gains, cryptocurrencies are being dragged into a selloff on its coattails, and bearish headwinds persist. Expect a further continuation of downside tests, with $0.00002576, up next, and a break below that opening up the possibility of SHIB price being decimated towards $0.00000655 – a 70% devaluation. Shiba Inu hanging by a thread before price action could collapse Shiba Inu price is in a vortex along with other financial market assets, after the US session saw a180 degree U-turn to the downside. The ASIA PAC and European sessions are also sharply lower and with risk assets being slashed across the board. This is being reflected in cryptocurrencies where a selloff is also taking place. At the moment, SHIB price is drilling down to $0.00002482, a level where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the monthly S1 support level intersect.This should offer plenty of support, but with current market sentiment so negative, it is not a given that investors will want to step in and support the trade. A break lower would see price next pause at $0.00001623, the S2 monthly support. The level of the S2 does not hold any historical relevance, however, making it relatively weak, and the only key level further down looks to be $0.00000607, just above the S3 monthly support, and the starting point of a Fibonacci retracement. Depending on how the US session will unfold, expect this to be on the cards in the days to come if markets enter into correction territory or even into a recession. The result would be SHIB shedding 70% of its market value from where it is currently trading. SHIB/USD daily chart Often enough, markets see an uptick after a gloomy negative day like yesterday. Investors start to come in and pick up interesting assets at a discount, and markets finally get to a point where a revaluation trade is made. This could be the same for Shiba Inu, with the 200-day SMA holding its ground, supporting price action, and a bullish candle starting to form with a test at the 55-day SMA around $0.00003395.
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Price Of Bitcoin Below $36k And Price Of Ether Below $2.5k

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.01.2022 09:39
The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down to 11 on Sunday and slightly up to 13 by early Monday. Crypto market capitalisation lost another 1.1% overnight to $1.61 trillion, the lowest since August. As is often the case with prolonged sell-offs, altcoins are falling with acceleration to the first cryptocurrency, causing BTC's share gains, which already stands at 41.3% against lows of 39.3% in mid-January. Bitcoin's share of 40% seems like a turning point, twice triggering a correction in the crypto market. This level stood like an informal threshold that optimism about altcoins had gone too far. However, the rise in bitcoin's share does little to help its price. We saw the sixth consecutive bearish daily candlestick on Monday morning, and the price rolled back to $35K. The bears may well be able to sell the price down to $32.5K, closing the gap of July and returning the rate to last summer's support area. Alarmingly, the sharp reversal on Friday was not followed by any meaningful bounce. Some observers point out that this is a worrying signal, suggesting further market declines, as we have not seen a final capitulation. Without capitulation, the markets will remain with an overhang of sellers. The price of ether has fallen to $2400, which is less than half of its peak price in November. Events are developing in a bearish scenario, so far broadly repeating what we saw in 2018 in terms of overall sentiment. Long-term buyers can avoid buying at prices above 30k for bitcoin and 2k for ether. We believe long-term investors will look out for purchases in the 20-30k per bitcoin area. Whether these purchases will be at the upper or lower boundary depends, among other things, on the situation in the stock markets. The return of buyers there will support the demand for risk among institutional investors. But as long as we see only steady selling from them, it is too early to talk about buying.
Emini S&P, Nasdaq And Emini Dow Jones Update – 24.01.2022

Emini S&P, Nasdaq And Emini Dow Jones Update – 24.01.2022

Jason Sen Jason Sen 24.01.2022 13:21
Video analysis -  Emini S&P MARCH completed the right should of a small head & shoulders pattern breaking the neck line is at 4590/4580 for a medium term sell signal. A bounce to this level was a perfect sell opportunity last week & as predicted we dropped 200 points is from here. Not a bad week! Nasdaq MARCH lower as expected to the only support for the day at 14430/14380, with a low for the day exactly here. Emini Dow Jones MARCH broke the 200 day moving average at 34900/850 as expected to hit the next target of 34560/540 & was expected to hit first support at 34050/33950 on Friday. A low for the day just 50 ticks above here. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P break of the neck line at 4590/80 was a significant sell signal with the break of the 200 day moving average at 4430/20 another important medium term sell signal. First target would be 4360/50. However 4200 is definitely not out of the question. Gains are likely to be limited with very strong resistance at 4425/35. Shorts need stops above 4450. A break higher however can target 4480/85. Nasdaq lower again as expected targeting the only support for the day at 14430/14380. A low for the day exactly here so obviously this is key to direction now. A break below here is an important sell signal of course & we could easily drop another 500 points. A bounce from the only support for the day at 14430/14380 is likely as trading starts this week. We could reach 14600/650, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 14800/900. Emini Dow Jones currently holding first support at 34050/33950. First resistance at 34450/500. Strong resistance at 34750/800 should we make it that far. A break below 33900 eventually this week is a sell signal eventually targeting 33200. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Crypto Market News Sound "Less Negatively" This Time

Crypto Market News Sound "Less Negatively" This Time

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.01.2022 09:05
The cryptocurrency market is adding 0.2% in the last 24 hours to $1.63 trillion, experiencing some pause or rebound after a prolonged drawdown. Buyer interest in cryptocurrencies came at the expense of a rebound in US equities, where selloff hunters thought their time had come. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation without Bitcoin became less than 1 trillion last Saturday, and this round level now acts as near-term resistance. At one point on Monday, Bitcoin was down to $33K, but at the late US session, and now trades near $36.4K. Yesterday's drawdown almost closed the gap in July and also came from the lower boundary of the downward channel. The latter indicates that despite the prevalence of bears, the market is not yet ready to accelerate the decline. Bitcoin is gaining 2.8% in 24 hours, but most altcoins are losing ground. So, yesterday's rebound in bitcoin and the positive dynamics of the crypto market are more correctly attributed to technical factors: crypto investors are exiting altcoins to more liquid BTC, forming temporary bounces, but nothing more. The nearest target for BTC downside is $32.3K to close the gap entirely. However, it is worth being prepared to retest the July lows of $29.5-30K. Without support from the stock markets, these levels may not hold for long either. Ether also saw a bounce yesterday towards the end of the day, making it clear that the market is far from surrendering. After seven days of collapse, the primary altcoin managed to close Monday with a tiny gain. Nevertheless, there are no signs of breaking the downtrend yet. Moreover, a death cross is also forming over the ether, as the 50-day moving average is now only a couple of days away from crossing the 200-day from the top down. This signal is often followed by a new bearish attack.
Crypto and FOMC As Always Interact, Waiting for FED Decision and Tesla (TSLA) Reports

Crypto and FOMC As Always Interact, Waiting for FED Decision and Tesla (TSLA) Reports

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 26.01.2022 12:20
Today’s highly anticipated FED decision could have wide ranging implications across markets as it could alter the current state of economic policy and ultimately favour some markets over others. While there are several scenarios of what’s expected today from the US central bank, the most likely one seems to be a rate increase in March while maintaining QE for the time being , which many investors could see as a slight step back compared to the tone used by the FED recently. On the other hand, if the FOMC decides to surprise investors with a more hawkish than expected approach, it could lead to significant reactions across stock markets and cryptocurrencies even after the recent corrections we have already seen so far. The FED must be very cautious today as it appears to be stuck in a challenging situation, unable to ignore record inflation levels while also having a market that relies heavily on its fiscal policy and any misstep could have greater than expected consequences. Cryptocurrencies attempt to recover ahead of FOMC decision Cryptocurrencies and tech stocks have seen the majority of the volatility and pullbacks from recent uncertainty noticed across a wide range of markets to different extents. However, due to their exceedingly volatile nature, cryptocurrency prices moved significantly with the total market cap falling around $1 Trillion as the majority of top 100 tokens dropped around 20% reaching the lowest level in several months and shaking investor confidence in the sector. On the other hand, we are seeing an attempt to recover today with most tokens trading slightly higher ahead of the FOMC decision as some investors expect the US central bank to back off after seeing the massive reaction it’s recent announcements have had. While it remains to be seen whether the FED will go through with its plan, it is clear that a significant increase in volatility has the potential to scare many investors who may not be interested in projects for the long term and are mainly attempting to speculate on their prices for short term gains. Investors await Tesla earnings report While many investors will be focusing on the FED’s key decision today, earning season has also been a main topic of discussion with several major companies already publishing their reports. We have seen a variety of contrasting results with some exceeding expectations while others disappointed and ultimately reflected that in a significant share price drop. Tesla will be publishing it’s results today and investors will be looking closely to ascertain if the company is living up to the forecasts or if it also appears to be struggling with rising inflation and supply chain issues. A better than expected result could renew investor confidence in the company that has been able to impress many since being listed on the S&P 500 not long ago, while a disappointment could impact future prospects in addition to share price in the short term.  
XRP (-0.9%), LUNA (-8.3%), ETH (-2.5%). Bitcoin decrased by 0.4%

XRP (-0.9%), LUNA (-8.3%), ETH (-2.5%). Bitcoin decrased by 0.4%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.01.2022 09:07
On Thursday, Bitcoin lost 0.4%, ending the day around $36,200, and Ethereum fell 2.5%. The other leading altcoins in the top ten also mostly saw declines, from XRP down 0.9% to Terra with -8.3%. According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.3% per day, to $1.72 trillion. Bitcoin tried to strengthen on Thursday morning but began to decline in the American session along with US stock indices. The US stock market fell following the results of trading on Thursday, although it opened with growth. The high-tech Nasdaq suffered particularly heavy losses. Investors continue to withdraw from US stocks amid the expected tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The day before, the central bank, following its meeting, signalled that it would start raising interest rates in March, curtailing the entire stimulus program at the beginning of the month. In the future, the regulator will begin to reduce the Fed's balance sheet. In such circumstances, investors will continue to reduce their positions on risky assets, and Cryptocurrencies may be hit first. Meanwhile, bitcoin is trying to stay above the $35,000 mark, taking advantage of some slowdown in the fall of the stock markets. However, if the fall in stocks accelerates, the crypto market will also accelerate its decline. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected Fidelity's application to launch a bitcoin ETF. Fidelity itself warned investors that bitcoin was in a “liquidity storm” due to high volatility in the stock market.
NASDAQ, Non-Farm Payrolls, GBPAUD, Gold and More in The Next Episode of "The Trade Off"

Stock Market in 2022: Momentum on the Stocks in the Market Are In a Solid Footing

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.01.2022 10:51
The year 2022 is seemingly a mixed bag, even as markets start reopening. The year looks promising, though, with issues like inflation and COVID to contemplate. Historic rallies in 2021 after lockdowns are looking to inspire trading in various industries, with some assets to look out for by investors. Growth will surely return at some point, but so will disappointing instances where tumbles will dominate trading desks. The S & P's historic gains of 30 percent dominated the press at the close of 2021, making investors using Naga and other optimistic platforms. The ended year had one of the longest bull markets. However, the Fed rate tightening and the direction the pandemic will take are some things to expect, notwithstanding that the stock market might grow by a whopping 10 percent in 2022. Trading Movements In Week One 2022 European markets have opened with a lot of optimism in 2022, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed at 489.99 points; this is 0.5 percent higher than the opening figure. The European benchmark was some percentage lower than the overall S&P 2021 performance, though with a surge of 22.4 percent. Record gains in the stock markets have relied on the positions taken by the governments during the pandemic. In the USA and Europe, increasing vaccination rates and economic stimulus measures have improved investor confidence. However, there are indications for more volatility in 2022, a situation investors must watch keenly. There has been little activity in London markets in the first week of 2022, while in Italy, France, and Spain gains of between 0.5-1.4 percent made notable highlights. European markets had diverse industries drive up the closing gains witnessed; the airline sector, in particular, has had a significant influence. Germany’s Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) had an impressive 8.8 percent jump while Air France KLM (AIRF.PA), a 4.9 percent gain. Factory activity is another factor to thank for the first week's gains all over Europe. Noteworthy, the Omicron variant influenced trading in the entirety of December, but the reports that it is milder than Delta has energized market activities coming into January. S&P and DOW Jones 2022 First Week Highs Across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a record high, highlighting a similar aggressiveness as the European markets. While the jump was industrial-wide, Tech stocks continued to dominate, as Apple finally touched the $3 trillion valuation, though for a short time. Tesla Inc. (TSLA.O) posted a 13.5 percent jump thanks to increased production in China and an unprecedented goal to surpass its target. The US market, like the European market, is also in a fix; the Omicron variant of COVID-19 continues to cause concern with the wait-and-see approach, the only notable strategy. Currently, every country is reporting a jump in the number of Covid cases, with the UK going above 100K cases for the first time and the US recording some new records as well. School delays and increased isolation by key workers will surely debilitate the markets, with the global chip shortage another point to contemplate. However, markets can still ride on the increased development of therapies to help fight Covid. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (CDC) has been quick, as now children can have their third doses as well. Industries to Look Out For In 2022 European automakers have seen early peaks, while the airline sector has also picked up fast. In the US, tech shares continue to dominate, and 2022 might witness new records never seen before. However, the energy sectors have also dominated the news in 2021, and in 2022; the confidence in them will continue to rise because of an anticipation of stabilization in energy prices. The same goes for crude oil prices. Regardless, shareholders will continue watching the decisions by the Federal Reserve, a review in the current interest rates will surely tame inflation. Conclusion 2022 will see its highs and lows in investments. Some assets will make the news and investors will be keen to use any information to make key decisions. Tech will continue to shine, but it is important to anticipate the direction of the pandemic, as it will be an important factor in investor decisions.
European Central Bank and Amazon (AMZN) And Its Earnings

European Central Bank and Amazon (AMZN) And Its Earnings

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 03.02.2022 11:57
Central bank decisions tend to be significant events in normal circumstances, but today’s decision could prove to be quite interesting for markets as different decisions are expected from each of today’s banks. While the Bank of England is set to raise its rate for the second time and signal further unwinding of its pandemic stimulus, the European central bank is expected to maintain it’s wait and see approach despite record inflation of 5,1% announced in January. According to these predictions, we could be seeing a strengthening of the pound thanks to the 0,5% interest rate, while we could sese a mixed reaction of the Euro as markets remain uncertain about the fragile economic recovery, especially given recent escalations on the Russia-Ukraine border which could destabilize the entire continent. Despite this, any surprises in today’s decisions or announcements could have far reaching effects on both the FX market and equities across Europe and the UK as central bankers struggle to balance record inflation with the post pandemic recovery. Can Amazon’s earnings support US indices? While we have seen a noticeable recovery of global indices over the past several days, yesterday’s disappointing earnings report from Meta (Facebook) saw the stock price drop and weigh on US markets as well as general sentiment. Meta’s results came one day after Alphabet announced it’s positive results and optimistic outlook and despite this mixed sentiment, we are seeing a slight pullback of stock markets as they await another mega-cap report. Amazon’s results could prove to be a significant catalyst for potential movements in the markets as a better than expected result could further boost the recent recovery while a disappointing one could drag markets further down. The company benefited greatly from the recent global situation as demand for its products and services increased noticeably thanks to a solid strategy and cost optimization. On the other hand, like many other companies that benefited from the stay-at-home lifestyle, it remains to be seen if that positive performance has carried over into this new phase.  
Awaiting Non Farm Payrolls, Brent Increased And Hits Ca. $92

Awaiting Non Farm Payrolls, Brent Increased And Hits Ca. $92

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 04.02.2022 11:36
As usual for the first Friday of the month, investors will be focusing on the highly anticipated Non Farm Payroll report from the US which will give an overview of the job market situation for January and which is expected to show an increase of only 150,000. However, this report will be even more highly focused on since Wednesday's ADP report surprised markets with a significantly below expectation reading of -301,000 and pointed to increasing difficulties in the world's largest economy caused in part by the Omicron variant. While rising costs and supply concerns continue to impact the economic recovery, the FED maintains its position that full employment has been reached and that it will adjust it’s policies when it deems necessary in order to stimulate further growth. A better than expected result could encourage the Fed to continue its approach, while a disappointing reading could cause further concerns and may shift focus slightly on wage figures and their relation to record level inflation in the world's largest economy. Either way, today could see a noticeable increase in volatility as investors assess the situation and as stock markets attempt to stabilize after several weeks of significant moves. UK Construction PMI sparks slight optimism The UK construction sector continued to gain momentum after a difficult end to 2021 thanks to an improvement in commercial activity which helped offset a weak rise in house building. Improvements were also helped by a drop in cost inflation which fell to a 10-month low thanks to an easing of supply issues, which have been affecting the sector for months. As a result, commercial work helped construction growth reach a six-month high but with supplier lead times continuing to lengthen in January as staff shortages and a lack of haulage availability hindered deliveries, the situation continues to be uncertain. Oil prices reach multi year high as global tensions rise As the situation on the Ukraine-Russia border continues to escalate with several countries sending military personnel in an attempt to mitigate the issue, we are seeing another record increase in the price of oil with Brent reaching the highest level since October 2014 and breaking above $92. While OPEC announced it will increase its production by 400,000 barrels per day in March, the market remains concerned for a potential undersupply and general destabilization which could have consequences for the vast majority of sectors in economies as they are tied to oil prices for transport, shipping and energy. We have already noticed increasing energy costs across the world and further tensions could see these increase even more as uncertainty may lead to stockpiling and difficulties in general trade. Despite this, an easing of tensions with a continued global recovery could see the price retreat as long as a balance is maintained with suppliers in the short and medium term.  
Brent (Crude Oil) Has Gained 20% Since The Beginning Of The Year. The Brent Price For Today  - The 7-year High

Brent (Crude Oil) Has Gained 20% Since The Beginning Of The Year. The Brent Price For Today - The 7-year High

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 09.02.2022 12:30
While Oil prices have seen significant movements in recent times, with Brent gaining over 20% from the start of 2022 and reaching the highest level since october 2014, we are beginning to see a slight pullback despite an unexpected inventory drop shown in yesterday's API report. Talks surrounding the Iran nuclear deal, which could bring around 2 mpd supply into the markets, have helped prices retreat while easing of tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation have also boosted sentiment. On the other hand, while these are positive signs the situation remains uncertain as any further escalation could see supply significantly disrupted and as the Iran deal remains slightly out of reach for the time being. OPEC appears to be nearing production capacity and optimistic forecasts point to a rise in demand throughout the year so unless some progress is made among other producers, those supply concerns could translate into record prices and subsequent impacts on a variety of sectors. Today’s EIA inventory report could prove to be important for short term price action as a confirmation of the API report could potentially increase concerns regarding short term price stability.   Stock markets continue to recover as investors await earning reports from Uber and Disney European stock markets are extending the upward move after a positive Asian session and following a higher close of US indices despite some general uncertainty seen across markets. Stock prices have been increasingly volatile on the back of recent geopolitical tensions and some surprising earnings reports released during this earning season. Fiscal and monetary policy has also greatly impacted investor sentiment but many appear to be reassured for the time being as we see a continuation of the recent rebound across global markets while investors await today’s key earnings announcements from major companies like Uber technologies and Disney among others. While it remains to be seen whether these will manage to meet expectations, the situation remains quite fragile with many markets experiencing significant volatility and as several central bankers are also due to speak today.   Barratt Developments strong results boost investor confidence Barratt Developments report exceeded expectations and pointed to a stronger recovery from covid levels with over 18,000 home constructions and strong revenue figures. The company expects this positive performance to continue throughout 2022 and despite some uncertainty surrounding the global economic environment, the general market situation appears to favor such optimistic performance. It remains to be seen if the company will manage to successfully implement its strategy or if it will encounter issues driven by record inflation and potential supply chain disruptions.
Bank of America Doesn't Approve Bitcoin, Which By The Way Decreased By 1.3% Yesterday

Bank of America Doesn't Approve Bitcoin, Which By The Way Decreased By 1.3% Yesterday

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.02.2022 08:53
Cryptocurrencies were under the pressure of strong data on inflation in the United States on Thursday, which has updated 40-year highs. Such values can force the Fed to raise interest rates faster, which is negative for all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin showed high volatility during trading, updating early January highs above $45,800 under the influence of a weakening dollar. However, towards the end of the day, the first cryptocurrency began to decline along with stock indices: the S&P500 lost 1.8%, the high-tech Nasdaq fell 2.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed for the second day is exactly in the middle of the scale, at around 50 (neutral). However, now the stock markets are having an increased impact on the dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum, in which the prospects for monetary policy are being reassessed. The corresponding index is now in the fear territory, near the 37 mark. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being bought back on dips towards the 50-day average, which keeps the picture bullish. However, in the event of a prolonged sale of shares, the first cryptocurrency will not hold and risks pulling the entire market with it. Fitch has downgraded El Salvador due to its acceptance of bitcoin as legal tender. In March, the country will issue the first $1 billion bitcoin bonds. There is interesting news from America as well. The largest investment company BlackRock is going to launch a cryptocurrency trading service. Bank Of America refuses to recognize Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, pointing to the strengthening of the correlation between BTC and the S&P500 stock index. And at JPMorgan, they currently consider the “fair” quote for bitcoin to be $38,000. In Russia, the government has completed the drafting of a bill on the circulation of digital currencies. The Ministry of Finance proposed establishing a transitional period for individuals before introducing a tax on income from crypto assets. Overall, Bitcoin lost 1.3% on Thursday, ending the day around $44,100. Ethereum fell 4.3%, while other top ten altcoins declined from 0.5% (Avalanche) to 6.2% (Solana and Polkadot). The total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.8% over the day, to $2.08 trillion. Altcoins showed a leading decline, which led to an increase in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.5%, to 40.1%
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Investors spooked by renewed geopolitical tensions

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.02.2022 16:10
Bitcoin price gets caught in a bearish triangle as tensions in Ukraine flare up again. Ethereum price returns to pivotal support, money repatriation goes into the second day. XRP price in pennant ready for a bearish breakout under the current sentiment. Cryptocurrencies are on the back foot as investors are getting worried about the escalating situation between Ukraine and Russia, as more reports come in from shots in the Donbas region near Luhansk. As the situation does not seem to de-escalate, investors are pulling their money out of what was believed to be the start of a solid and longer-term relief rally that is stalling at the moment. With more downside pressure to come, expect all significant cryptocurrencies to fall back to supportive pivotal levels. Bitcoin price falls into a bearish triangle, set to dip back below $40,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price is getting battered on Thursday after a fade on Wednesday that could still be attributed to some short-term profit-taking. The extension of the falls seems to confirm that sentiment is yet again dipping below zero towards risk-off. Investors pulling out their funds preemptively is reflected with the sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index, where the sell-side demand is outpacing the buy-side demand. In this context, Bitcoin price will remain under pressure for the rest of the week and could be set to slip below $40,000 in the coming days as the situation in Ukraine is set to deteriorate again, potentially inflicting further damage to the market mood. BTC price sees bulls unable to hold price action above $44,088 and in the process is forming a descending trend line that, together with the base at $41,756, is forming a bearish triangle. Expect Bitcoin valuation to decline further as the tensions around Luhansk increase by the hour. Once the $41,756 support is broken, the road is open for a nosedive towards $39,780 with the $40,000 psychological level broken yet again to the downside. BTC/USD daily chart A hail mary could be provided by the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $42,340, which already provided support on February 9 and February 15. With that move, a sudden breakthrough in the peace talks could become the needed catalyst to improve the situation and dislocate Bitcoin price action from the drag of the geopolitical news that is weighing. Bitcoin would see the demand on the buy-side blow up and see a big pop above $44,088. Ethereum bulls are breaking their jaws on the 55-day SMA as the price fades further Ethereum (ETH) price is getting crushed against the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,143, with bulls unfit to push and try to close price action above it. After three failed attempts in a row, it is becoming clear that the bullish support is wearing thin as, on Tuesday, the daily candle closed above there, and even if the next day ETH price opened above again, it closed below the 55-day SMA. On Wednesday, finally, both the open and the closing price were below the 55-day SMA. This proves that sentiment has shifted in just three trading days and looks set to fade further away from the 55-day SMA on Friday. Expect going forward in the next coming hours that bulls will get squeezed against the wall at $3,018 with both a pivotal level and the $3,000 marker a few dollars below there. As tensions mount, expect some more negative headlines, a breach in defense of the bulls with even the monthly pivot at $2,929 getting involved in the crosshairs. Depending on the severity and the further deterioration of the political situation in Ukraine and the correction in the stock markets, it is possible to see a nosedive towards $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart Global market sentiment is hanging on the lips of Ukraine and the geopolitical situation. With that, it is clear that once the situation gets resolved or de-escalates, markets can shift 180 degrees in a matter of seconds. That same rule applies to cryptocurrencies where Ethereum could pop back above the 55-day SMA and even set sail for $3,391, breaking the high of February and flirting with new highs for 2022. Bulls joining the rally will want to keep a close eye and be mindful of the RSI, as that would start to flirt with being overbought and, from there on, limiting any further big moves in the hours or next trading days to come. Ethereum short squeeze could trigger a spike to $4,000 XRP price set to lose 10% of market value as headline news breaks down relief rally Ripple (XRP) price is stuck in a pennant and is close to a breakout that looks set to be a bearish one. As global markets are continuing the fade from Wednesday, XRP price is breaking below the recent low and sees bears hammering down on the ascending side of the pennant. As more negative headlines cross the wires, expect this to add ammunition for bears to continue and start breaking the pennant to the downside. XRP price will look for support on the next support at hand, which comes in at $0.78, and depending on the severity of the news flow, that level should hold again as it did on February 14. If that is not the caseany further downside will be cut short by the double bottom around $0.75 from February 12 and 13 and the 55-day SMA coming in at or around that area. With that move, the RSI will be triggering some "oversold" red flags and see bears booking profit. XRP/USD daily chart A false bearish breakout could easily see bears trapped on entering on the break to the downside out of the pennant as bulls go in for the squeeze. That would mean that price shoots up towards $0.88 and takes out this week's high. Bears would be forced to change sides and join the buy-side demand to close their losing positions, adding to even more demand and possibly hitting $0.90 in the process. XRP set to explode towards $1.00, bulls hopeful over SEC vs Ripple case
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Bitcoin lower as expected of course after our latest sell signal was triggered.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 24.02.2022 08:05
(Because it has never been regarded as a safe haven in times of trouble & always goes down when stock markets panic. Also been proven to be no inflation hedge of course). Ripple reversed in between resistance at 7250/80 & 7610/30 & continues lower as expected. Ethereum breaks the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for yet another sell signal. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin breaks 40800/500 for a medium term sell signal in the 3 month bear trend initially targeting 38000/37500 then 36400/36000 & probably as far as 34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of the 100 week moving average at 32690/700 (today's value). Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with first resistance at 36300/400 then 39400/450. Further resistance at 40900/41000. Shorts need stops above 42200. Ripple lower again as expected to test very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. Longs need stops below 6100. A break lower quickly targets 5800. If you are very brave & want to try longs at 6190/6160, look for targets of 6660/90, & perhaps as far as 6900 for profit taking. Ethereum breaks the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for yet another sell signal in the bear trend as we look for a retest of the January low at 2160/55. I would not rely on this holding the downside & if we continue lower look for a test of very strong support at 1900/1850. Longs need stops below 1750. If this breaks there is likely to be another very significant move to the downside. Bulls desperately need prices to hold above 2500 now to regain control. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Having A Look At The Markets Considering Tensions, COVID-19 And National Banks Decisions

How Did Markets Reacted To The Latest Events In The Eastern Europe?

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 24.02.2022 14:22
The worst case scenario - Russian invasion of Ukraine - is materializing. We try to analyze its consequences for the economy and financial markets Oil price increases past $100 per barrel Russia is a key player on the energy commodities market, especially important for Europe. Situation on the oil market proves it - oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. Russia is exporting around 5 million barrels of oil each day, around 5% of global demand. Around a half of that is exported to the European Union. If the West decides to cut Russia off the SWIFT settlements system, Russian exports to the European Union could be halted. In such a scenario oil prices could jump $20-30 per barrel. In our opinion, the war risk premium included in current oil barrel prices amounts to $15-20. Europe is the main recipient of Russian oil. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Gold and palladium rally Conflict is the main driver of moves on the gold market. It is not the first time when gold proves to be a good store of value at times of geopolitical conflicts. Ounce of gold trades over 3% higher today, near $1,970, and just slightly over $100 below its all-time highs. Russia is an important producer of palladium, an important metal for the automotive sector. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Russia is a significant producer of palladium, which is a key metal in production of catalytic converters for the automotive sector. Palladium prices rallied almost 8% today. Fear means sell-off on the market Global stock markets are taking a hit not seen since 2020. However, panic is not as big as it was in early-2020. Uncertainty is the most important driver for global stock markets now as investors do not know what will come next. Correction on Nasdaq-100 futures deepened past 20% today. A big part of this drop, however, was caused by expectations of Fed tightening. DAX futures dropped around 15% since mid-January and trade near pre-pandemic highs. DE30 trades to halt decline at pre-pandemic high. Source: xStation5 Business in Ukraine is in danger It should not come as a surprise that Russian companies and companies with big exposure to Russia are the ones taking the biggest hit. Russian RTS dropped over 60% off the October 2021 high and briefly traded below 2020 lows! Polymetal International is a company worth mentioning - stock is plunging over 30% on London Stock Exchange as market fears sanctions will hit Anglo-Russian companies. Renault is also taking a hit as Russia is the second biggest market for the company. Banks with large exposure to Russia - UniCredit and Societe Generale - are also dropping hard. Even higher inflation From an economic point of view the situation is clear - military conflict will generate a new inflationary impulse. Prices of almost all commodities are trading higher, especially energy commodities. However, in case of commodity markets, a lot will depend on how conflict impacts logistics. Keep in mind that global logistics have not recovered from Covid-19 hit yet and now another negative factor is surfacing. According to the New York Fed index, global supply chains are the most tight on record. Central bankers' headache Covid-19 panic has been very short-lived, thanks to an enormous support offered by central banks. However, such an action is unlikely now. As conflict is inflationary and has a bigger impact on supply and logistics rather than demand, inflation becomes an even bigger problem for major central banks. On the other hand, quick tightening monetary policy would only magnify market turmoil. In our opinion, major central banks will continue with announced policy tightening. Risk of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March dropped but a 25 bp rate hike looks like a done deal. What's next? A key question for global markets now is - how much will the conflict escalate? An answer to this question will be a key to calming the markets. Once it is answered, calculations of impact on sanctions and speculations over changes in economic policy will begin.
S&P 500 (SPX) Increased By 7.1%, FTSE 100 (UK 100) Went Up As Well

S&P 500 (SPX) Increased By 7.1%, FTSE 100 (UK 100) Went Up As Well

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.03.2022 10:15
  Why the S&P500 is rising now Events in Ukraine at the end of last month provoked chaos in the stock markets of all regions. However, the S&P500 and FTSE100 indexes already managed to find the support of buyers on the first day of hostilities. Since then, these indices have formed an upward trend. The S&P 500 is testing the 4400 mark, above which it last traded solidly before Feb 17th. At the same time, futures are now 7.1% higher than the minimum point at which they were a week earlier.  The FTSE100 is not gaining as much and is now up 3.4% from last week's lows. In both cases, we see an upward movement, albeit shaky. It is explained by the market's less dependence on the state of affairs in Eastern Europe since the companies represented in the S&P500 are significantly diversified and removed from the epicentre of events. In contrast, the European Euro50 on the 1st of March fell to lows for almost a year.  A similar pattern was observed for the German DAX. The charts of both indices have been dominated by sellers since the beginning of the year, and this trend has intensified sharply in the last two weeks.  The DAX and EURO50 have about 7% more downside potential in the next few days before finding support. In our opinion, central banks may now be on the side of buyers in Western Europe and the United States, which are likely to soften plans for tightening monetary policy, despite the rise in commodity prices. Worth mentioning that in times of crisis, the market quickly calculates the winners: both in February-March 2020 and last month, the market decline was general, but very soon the markets diverged in their dynamics.
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

Apple Stock News and Forecast: AAPL remains subject to geopolitical whims

FXStreet News FXStreet News 02.03.2022 16:19
Apple stock remains above its 200-day moving average as geopolitical turmoil remains. AAPL stock is unlikely to break higher until the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends. Apple is likely to fall further as no catalyst in sight and sanctions hurt all global businesses. Apple (AAPL) stock remains in recovery mode along with most US indices as last week's shock and awe sell-off remain the low mark for now. Stocks have entered a changed landscape for 2022, and the situation is worsening from both a macroeconomic and geopolitical viewpoint. Investors were just about coming to accept the inflation and interest rate environment for 2022 and had adjusted portfolios accordingly. High-risk growth stocks were avoided, and the focus returned to those stocks with strong balance sheets and low valuations. Value versus growth had already seen strong outperformance for value. Now things are worse. Sanctions will hit global growth and Europe especially hard. Energy costs are out of control, European gas prices are nearly ten times higher than a year ago. Oil prices we know all about. What we are left with then is higher inflation and now for longer likely reaching into 2024. Interest rates will have to rise, despite slowing growth, leading to stagflation. High-risk assets will struggle. Equities are viewed as a high-risk asset so expect bond inflows to outweigh equity fund inflows for the remainder of this crisis and beyond. Likely sector winners in the short term are defense stocks and oil stocks should have earnings well underpinned now for the remainder of the year. Apple (AAPL) stock is a harder one to quantify in this new environment. The stock certainly has defensive qualities, it has piles of cash which it can use for dividends, buybacks, or acquisitions. It has some pricing power that it can pass on to customers. However, rising commodity prices lead to higher semiconductor prices. Higher energy costs lead to higher shipping costs for inputs and outputs. Rising inflation and possible slowing growth will lead customers to scale back on purchases of luxury goods. Sanctions will hit globalized businesses. Apple Stock News With perfect timing, the EU has just come out and said EU countries must turn off the stimulus tap sharply and take a neutral fiscal stance. This means less free money and a focus on debt reduction, as well as echoes of the dreaded tight monetary policy that prevailed after the Great Financial Crash. This will mean less consumer spending. Apple Stock Forecast We cannot avoid the overall bearish macro and geopolitical background. We would rate Apple as outperforming, but that is an outperform in a bearish market. We note the potential and hope for a swift end to the conflict as Russia and Ukraine meet again for talks. This will lead to a sharp relief rally, so short-term traders take note. The risk-reward is probably skewed to the upside. Wednesday is likely to see a slow gradual move lower or a swift rally on positive developments. Longer-term though the situation is clouded. Unless the conflict ends soon and sanctions are lifted quickly, we fail to see how equities can return to any form of bullishness. The situation from one month ago has not changed apart from lower economic growth. For now, Apple has found support at the 200-day moving average, which is set at $152 today. This is massive support. Break that and it is likely onto $138. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergernce (MACD) remain bearish, confirming the price move. Apple stock chart, daily
Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says

Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.03.2022 15:44
After the war-driven gold rally, oil is starting to outperform. History between these two has already shown that someone may suffer. Many suggest: gold miners.The precious metals corrected some of their gains yesterday, but overall, not much changed in them. However, quite a lot happened in crude oil, and in today’s analysis we’ll focus on what it implies for the precious metals market and, in particular – for mining stocks.As you may have noticed, crude oil shot up recently in a spectacular manner. This seems normal, as it’s a market with rather inflexible supply and demand, so disruptions in supply or threats thereof can impact the price in a substantial way. With Russia as one of the biggest crude oil producers, its invasion of Ukraine, and a number of sanctions imposed on the attacking country (some of them involving oil directly), it’s natural that crude oil reacts in a certain manner. The concern-based rally in gold is also understandable.However, the relationship between wars, concerns, and prices of assets is not as straightforward as “there’s a war, so gold and crude oil will go up.” In order to learn more about this relationship, let’s examine the most similar situation in recent history to the current one, when oil supplies were at stake.The war that I’m mentioning is the one between Iraq and the U.S. that started almost 20 years ago. Let’s see what happened in gold, oil, and gold stocks at that time.The most interesting thing is that when the war officially started, the above-mentioned markets were already after a decline. However, that’s not that odd, when one considers the fact that back then, the tensions were building for a long time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion.The point here, however, is that the markets rallied while the uncertainty and concerns were building up, and then declined when the situation was known and “stable.” I don’t mean that “war” was seen as stable, but rather that the outcome and how it affected the markets was rather obvious.The other point is the specific way in which all three markets reacted to the war and the timing thereof.Gold stocks rallied initially, but then were not that eager to follow gold higher, but that’s something that’s universal in the final stages of most rallies in the precious metals market. What’s most interesting here is that there was a time when crude oil rallied substantially, while gold was already declining.Let me emphasize that once again: gold topped first, and then it underperformed while crude oil continued to soar substantially.Fast forward to the current situation. What has happened recently?Gold moved above $1,970 (crude oil peaked at $100.54 at that time), and then it declined heavily. It’s now trying to move back to this intraday high, but it was not able to do so. At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading at about $1,930, while crude oil is trading at about $114.In other words, while gold declined by $30, crude oil rallied by about $14. That’s a repeat of what we saw in 2003!What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks.That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. The above doesn’t apply to silver as it’s a commodity, but it does apply to silver stocks.Back in 2004, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more.Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet.However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold.Investing and trading are difficult. If it was easy, most people would be making money – and they’re not. Right now, it’s most difficult to ignore the urge to “run for cover” if you physically don’t have to. The markets move on “buy the rumor and sell the fact.” This repeats over and over again in many (all?) markets, and we have direct analogies to similar situations in gold itself. Junior miners are likely to decline the most, also based on the massive declines that are likely to take place (in fact, they have already started) in the stock markets.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?

Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 07.03.2022 16:45
  The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next? A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown. On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role. US Dollar Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) On the geopolitical scene, Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be resumed today in Brest (Belarus) at 14:00 GMT, while another meeting is already scheduled at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Thursday in Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba will talk there in the presence of the Turkish foreign minister. We might therefore expect some de-escalation in the Black Sea basin this week if the two parties involved were able to reach an agreement after further negotiations. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2022 report, suggesting that even with non-hydro renewable sources set to rapidly grow through 2050, oil and gas-derived sources should still remain the top energy sources to fuel most of the United States. The agency is forecasting a rise in the production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – which mainly comes from shale gas – by at least 35%! In summary, the threat of sanctions has already wiped out almost all Russian oil – at least 7% of global supply – from the world oil market. In the weeks or months to come, we can see sanctions on Russian oil exports create a boomerang effect on European economies, decreasing world market supply, increasing prices for industry, as well as even more rising expenses, and thus cost of living through a ripple effect. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:23
The Russian rouble remains under pressure, while all the new controls on currency transactions in Russia are alienating the exchange rate at home and on global FX. The 12% commission on currency purchases explains the difference between the external and domestic exchange rates. That said, one must realise that "catching the bottom" of the ruble is hardly wise when new sanctions are imposed almost on a daily basis. The economic landslide continues with extreme speed. Across the other EM markets, there is a concern or even pessimism about the medium-term outlook, and some relative easing of the fear level is striking in the stock markets today. Commodity markets, which continued their move towards new extremes yesterday, have encountered substantial selling, which continues today. Some reduction in the excitement can be attributed to hopes of progress towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Nevertheless, the conditions already prevailing in commodity markets are putting serious pressure on EM equities and currencies. EM populations are more vulnerable to soaring basic food and energy prices and currencies to capital outflows due to flight to safety. All of this is tightening financial conditions is undermining the economic recovery that investors had hoped for at the start of the year because of the retreat of the pandemic. While the end of last year and the beginning of this one were sentiments that growth momentum was shifting from the US to Europe and emerging markets, events in recent weeks have not only returned EM markets to the downward trend but again show that US markets are the best refuge for capital. For example, Chinese indices are losing 35% (Hang Seng) to 43% (China H-star) from their February 2021 peak. And this trend will not quickly reverse even if the military conflict in Eastern Europe ends right now because economic and reputational damage has already been done, which will take months or even years to undo.
Stocks rebound slightly as hopes of a Russia-Ukraine deal increase

Stocks rebound slightly as hopes of a Russia-Ukraine deal increase

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 09.03.2022 11:54
European stock markets started the day trading higher following a mixed Asian session which saw Nikkei drop 0.3% while S&P/ASX 200 gained 1% and as indices from China plunged and finished 1.7-5.0% lower. Meanwhile, the United States announced a total ban on Russian oil, natural gas and coal with the United Kingdom announcing that it will phase out Russian oil in the coming months. In response, Putin signed a decree banning exports of certain commodities from Russia and investors await the announcement within days to determine the potential impact on markets. Furthemore, a growing number of companies have announced their withdrawal from or suspension of services in Russia with McDonald's, Starbucks and Coca-Cola being the latest to make such announcements and isolating the country economically even more. While this rebound may encourage investors and increase confidence in the market, it is essential to keep in mind that any major news related to the ongoing conflict could have wide repercussions and may shake the extremely fragile market sentiment. Crypto markets rebound as sentiment improves ahead of Biden executive orderCryptocurrencies appeared to show signs of strength in the Asian session which have continued at the start of the European trading session with Bitcoin gaining over 8% and trading around $42,000, the highest level in a week. The crypto market cap is up over 6% today and has returned to around $1.85 Trillion after several days of uncertainty which followed the surge in demand seen at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that was sparked by significant interest from people of that region as they attempted to seek refuge from the collapsing economy and currency. As has been the case in the past, Bitcoin and Ethereum appear to be dragging the rest of the market with the majority of alt-coins also adding to their gains despite generally lagging slightly behind the majors. Furthermore, US president Biden is expected to make an announcement today regarding an executive order on cryptocurrencies that may pave the way for a broader adoption of digital assets and boost investor confidence in the relatively new asset class. While details of this announcement remain unclear, any sign of regulation or mainstream adoption could prove to be a catalyst for a major move across the crypto markets thanks to the influx of new money of both retail and institutional investors.
DAX (GER 40) And FTSE100 (UK100) Has Increased, Crude Oil Price And Price Of Gold Declines

DAX (GER 40) And FTSE100 (UK100) Has Increased, Crude Oil Price And Price Of Gold Declines

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 14.03.2022 11:53
European stock markets started the week trading higher following some positive news surrounding the talks between Russia and Ukraine as officials announced that some progress was being made and potential compromises were on the table. This positive sentiment carried over despite news of a major lockdown in a city in China caused by a surge in covid-19 cases over the weekend and as a meeting is expected today in Rome between US and Chinese officials to discuss the conflict. The German Dax is up around 3% and has managed to briefly break through a resistance area after sentiment was significantly impacted by the rising tension which threatened to severely disrupt European economies. Meanwhile the UK’s FTSE100 is also gaining as PM Boris Johnson is due to travel to Saudi Arabia to meet prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss a potential increase in oil supplies to offset the foregone Russian supplies. While there is a lack of data releases today, markets remain extremely susceptible to volatility as any major news relating to the conflict could trigger major moves which would echo across asset classes and trigger investor panic. Oil and Gold retreat as hopes for peace talks spark optimism After the massive rally which took oil and gold prices near their all time highs, we have seen the situation improve slightly over the last few days as markets began to receive some encouraging news regarding the prospect for a potential deal between the russians and ukranians. Tensions and rising supply concerns took the prices of those commodities to the highest levels in years as investors looked for a safe haven amid rising uncertainty and as they anticipated significant disruption in the oil market due to the unavailability of Russian supplies. However, at the start of the week the situation appears to be improving even more with oil prices back towards $100 a barrel while gold dropped over $100 from its recent high and is trading around $1960. While this situation may not last very long, as any major event could trigger a spike in both once again, it does provide some encouraging signs that if the situation continues to show signs of resolution markets could adjust quite rapidly.
The Euro (EUR) And The British Pound (GBP) Continue To Strengthen Their Positions Against The US Dollar (USD)

Stock Markets In China Go Up, The US (The Whole World Probably) Awaits Fed Move, EuroStoxx 600 Increases - What's More?

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 16.03.2022 15:07
March 16, 2022  $CNY, $USD, Brazil, China, Currency Movement, Federal Reserve, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia Overview: Chinese officials offered reassuring words and sparked a dramatic rally of equities and risk appetites more broadly. At the same time yields are surging as the markets anticipate the Fed to signal a more aggressive tightening course as it upgrades its inflation forecasts. China's CSI 300 rallied 4.3%, while the Hang Seng soared 9% and an index that tracks mainland shares listed in HK jumped 12.5%.  Most equity markets in the region rose 1-2%.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is around 2.2% better and US futures point to a strong opening.  The US 10-year yield is a little firmer at 2.15%. European benchmark yields are mostly 2-5 bp higher.  The 10-year JGB yield is a little near 0.20%, as it approaches the top of the Yield-Curve Control band (0.25%).  The dollar is on its heels.  The Scandis are leading the charge followed by the dollar bloc.  The dollar managed to extend its advance against the yen for the seventh consecutive session yesterday and is edging higher today.  Emerging market currencies are also gaining on the greenback, and the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is rising for the third consecutive day.  Rising yields seem to be tarnishing gold.  It is little changed, after falling for the past three sessions.  It is holding above yesterday's low near $1907.  April WTI is consolidating inside yesterday's range.  So far, it has held below $100 a barrel for the first time this month.  US natgas is jumping 3.0% to recoup most of what was lost in the past two sessions.  Europe's benchmark is up almost 1% after a nearly 2% advance yesterday.  Recall that it dropped 17.3% on Monday.  The supportive comments by Chinese officials arrested the six-day slide in iron ore prices with an 8.3% bounce today. Copper is rising for the first time in four sessions.  Nickel trading briefly re-opened and shut again, citing a technical issue with the new daily limit.  May wheat is about 3% weaker after rallying 5.3% yesterday.   Asia Pacific Chinese officials confirmed the shift from structural reforms to supporting the economy and growth.  A meeting chaired by Vice Premier Liu He promised to keep the stock market stable, support foreign listings, new policies for property developers, and signaled the end of its effort to "rectify" internet platform companies.  It could be that Chinese officials understood that the recent batch of economic data was not very convincing, such as the 12.2% jump in fixed-asset investment despite a sharp drop in cement and steel output (-17.8% and -10% respectively).   Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia is considering allowing China to pay for its oil in yuan. It is important to recognize that this is not the first time such a story has circulated.  China is Saudi Arabia’s single biggest customer, taking around a quarter of the Kingdom’s oil exports.  At $100 a barrel, it runs around $155 mln a day. What is Saudi Arabia going to do with the equivalent amount of yuan?  It is not like Saudi companies need yuan to service their RMB-debt or other obligations like they do with the dollar or euro.  The Saudi riyal is pegged to the dollar.  If Riyadh pushes too hard, will speculators test the commitment to the dollar peg? Will it be costly, like when it decided to grow wheat in the desert and cost it a quarter of its aquifer?  Riyadh could boost the allocation of its reserves to yuan, but to what end?  Given that the yuan shadows the dollar closely, the diversification argument is weak.  The yield premium over 10-year Treasuries has fallen below 70 bp for the first time in three years.  Saudi Arabia and US interests have diverged in several areas over the past year or two, including Yemen, Iran, and Afghanistan.  It has rejected the US and others’ entreaties to boost oil output, even though OPEC+ is not meeting the 400k barrel addition a month commitment.  The US used to buy 2 mln barrels of oil a day from Saudi Arabia.  At the end of last year, it was about 500k bpd and surpassed by Russia, Mexico, and Canada. Japan's February trade balance always improves from January, but this time the improvement was much smaller than expected.  Japan reported a JPY668 bln shortfall after a JPY2.19 trillion deficit in January.  Exports rose 19.1% year-over-year, which was a little less than expected.  On the other hand, imports soared by 34%, well above the 26.4% expected (median forecast in Bloomberg' survey).  The surge in the cost of energy drove the imports.  Japan reports February CPI figures Friday ahead of the outcome of the BOJ meeting. Excluding fresh food and energy, Japan is expected to show that deflationary forces persist.  The US dollar is about a quarter yen range as it holds above JPY118.15.  Provided the greenback closes above JPY118.30, it will be the eighth consecutive advance. Our JPY118.60 target has been approached.  Above there, the JPY120 area beckons.  Still, we caution chasing it higher.  The technical indicators are stretched, and the dollar closed above its upper Bollinger Band for the past three sessions and remains above it now (~JPY118.15).  The Australian dollar is extending its recovery that began yesterday.  It is approaching $0.7240, which is the (38.2%) retracement of the leg down that began at the end of last week from about $0.7365.  Note that the five and 20-day moving averages converge near $0.7255 today. The Chinese yuan rallied for the first time in five sessions today. The dollar had gapped higher on Monday and again on Tuesday.  It reversed lower yesterday, but the opening gain was not closed.  Today, the dollar closed Tuesday's gap and entered Monday's without closing it.  It extends to last Friday's high slightly below CNY6.34. The greenback's decline of a little more than a third of 1% would be the biggest drop of the year, if sustained.  Today the PBOC's dollar fix was a weaker than expected at CNY6.38 (vs. CNY6.3811, the median in Bloomberg's survey).   Europe Reports suggest that the US has promised that if the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran can be re-started, its sanctions would not impact Russia's atomic supply arrangements with Iran.  This had appeared to be a key issue behind the suspension of talks at the end of last week.  The revival of talks, which appeared to be moving in the right direction in recent weeks, would likely allow some phasing in of Iranian oil as adherence to the pact met certain benchmarks.   The Bank of England meeting concludes tomorrow.  The swaps market has about little more than a 25% chance of a 50 bp hike.  There had been a 60% chance discounted on February 10, the day before the US warned that a Russian attack on Ukraine could happen at any moment.  Recall that last month's 25 bp hike was delivered by a 5-4 majority, with the minority seeking a 50 bp hike.   The BOE's balance sheet begins shrinking this month as the large maturity will not be recycled into new purchases.  The euro is trading inside yesterday's range (~$1.0925-$1.1020).  There is a 1.23 bln euro option at $1.10 that expires today.  It looks likely to consolidate until the reaction to the FOMC meeting later today.  We note that the US two-year premium over Germany widened to almost 228 bp yesterday, the most since late 2019.  Despite the anticipation of the BOE's rate hike tomorrow, sterling remains pinned near the $1.30-trough seen on Monday and Tuesday.  Yesterday's high was about $1.3090, and today, it has been unable to sustain upticks abvoe $1.3070.  The $1.3100 area corresponds the (50%) retracement objective of the leg down since reversing lower from $1.3200 on March 10.  America Before the outcome of the FOMC meeting is announced, February retail sales will be reported.  It is unreasonable to expect a strong gain on top of the 3.8% surge in January (even without autos and gas). The dramatic gain was in reaction to the Covid-related 2.5% slump in December. The data is reported in nominal terms, reflecting volumes and prices.  We know that auto sales, as reported by the manufacturers, disappointed.  The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a 0.4% increase in the headline pace month-over-month and slightly slower for the components that feed into GDP models (excludes autos, gasoline sales, building materials, and food services. Economists will scrutinize the data to see how much the increase in gasoline prices is compressing discretionary purchases.  It is Fed Day, and this is the main focus. There seems little doubt that the Fed will hike the target rate by 25 bp.  That is probably the element that there can be the most certainty about.  The market has about a 13% chance that it could be 50 bp after Chair Powell clearly endorsed a 25 bp hike in testimony before Congress earlier this month.  Still, there is greater uncertainty over the other two elements of the Fed's announcement.  The pace of the balance sheet unwind is anxiously awaited.  We penciled in $40-$50 bln a month of Treasury and $20-$25 bln a month in Agencies.  Talk has circulated for a few months, but it seemed to pick up recently that the Fed could avoid an inversion of the curve if it relied more on QT (quantitative tightening) than rates.  Powell has insisted that the interest rate target is its primary monetary policy tool. Is this cast in stone? The dot-plot is the third element.  In December, the median projection was for rates to rise about 75 bp this year, with a 0.75%-1.0% target at the end of the year.  The Fed funds futures market has about 175 bp in tightening discounted. The median Fed dot saw the longer-term equilibrium rate at 2.5%.  In December, only five Fed officials anticipated that the target rate would be above there at the end of 2024.  The swaps curve sees rates peaking between 2.25% and 2.50% in 2024.  Canada's February CPI is expected to have accelerated to 5.5% from 5.1%.  More important for the central bank may be the acceleration in the underlying core rates.  The average may rise to 3.4% from 3.2%.  The Bank of Canada meets next on April 13 and is widely expected to hike again and signal the roll-off its balance sheet.   Late in the session, Brazil's central bank will likely raise the Selic Rate by 100 bp to 11.75%.  The past three hikes have been in 150 bp increments.  The IPCA measure of inflation edged up to 10.54% last month from 10.38%.  The central bank may warn that inflation has not peaked.  The swaps market has the peak in rates near 13.75% later this year.   The US dollar reversed lower after testing CAD1.2870 yesterday.  It settled on its lows (~CAD1.2760) and follow-through selling has pushed to about CAD1.2720 in the European morning.  Initial support is seen at CAD1.27, where a $1.1 bln option expires today.  Last week's low was near CAD1.2685. The CAD1.2650-CAD1.2660 area had previously offered support.  The greenback is pushing lower against the Mexican peso for the fourth consecutive session.  It is fallen from MXN21.05 before last weekend to MXN20.7635 earlier today.  It had been finding bids near MXN20.81.  If the break can be sustained, the next target is the MXN20.60-MN20.66 band.   On the other hand, the dollar has risen for the past four sessions against the Brazilian real.  The risk-on mood coupled could help stem the tide.  Resistance is seen near BRL5.20.  A break of yesterday's low near BRL5.10 may signal a top may be in place.      Disclaimer
Speaking Of Rallying Chinese Stocks, Quite Unchanged Bitcoin Price, BoE, Fed And Central Bank Of Turkey Interest Rates Decisions

Speaking Of Rallying Chinese Stocks, Quite Unchanged Bitcoin Price, BoE, Fed And Central Bank Of Turkey Interest Rates Decisions

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 17.03.2022 15:43
Chinese stocks had their best day since 2008 yesterday, as the government said it will ease the crackdown, support property and technology stocks and stimulate economy. Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon China index gained close to 33%, yet risks prevail: we are still in a China that is no longer the land of opportunity of before Xi Jinping. Plus, US maintains a hardline on the Chinese listings in the US, insisting that the companies listed in the US should provide complete access to audits, with the threat of getting de-listed if they don’t comply. The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its interest rate by 25bp as expected for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, and more importantly, said that the rate hikes will continue to tame inflation as the US economy looks strong enough to withstand a rapid normalization to avoid pushing the Fed into a darker stagflation environment. The kneejerk reaction to the decision was an early selloff then a strong rebound.The question is, could it last? Elsewhere, Bitcoin remained stoic despite a broad based risk rally, while the US dollar eased allowing the EURUSD trade above 1.10, and Cable above 1.31. Today, the Bank of England (BoE) and the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) will give their latest monetary policy verdicts. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:25 Chinese stocks rally: is it time for a healthy rebound? 3:30 Fed hikes & says it will hike more 5:37 Market reaction to Fed decision 7:03 Bitcoin stoic 8:06 USD eases, allowing euro and pound to recover 8:24 BoE to hike for the third consecutive meeting 8:59 Turkey's decision is a... nonsense. Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Botcoin May Continue Its Upward Movement This Week

On Monday (BTC) Bitcoin Price Reached The Level Of Ca. $41k

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.03.2022 08:43
BTC changed a little on Monday, ending the day around $41.3K. However, in early trading on Tuesday, we saw a jump of more than 5% to $43.3K; then the first cryptocurrency sunk to $42K. Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has gained 4%, and other leading altcoins from the top ten are not far behind: Solana and Avalanche are up 2%, Cardano is up 6%. Terra is out of the general outline, decreasing by 0.5%. According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 3% over the day, to $1.92 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index added 0.1 percentage points to 42% due to the BTC surge. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index fell by 4 points in a day, to 26, as its estimates do not include the latest bitcoin spurt. This is not the first such jump in BTC since the beginning of March, in contrast to the neutral or even negative sentiment in the stock markets. All this indicates the readiness of the bulls for decisive action. However, until now, such impulses cannot be on a solid basis, because the fundamental demand for risks is under obvious pressure. The most that the bulls were capable of in this case was the formation of support at the lows of July last year (ie below $30K). In January, the level moved to $35K and further to $37K at the end of February. According to the FxPro analysts, institutional investors withdrew about $47 million from crypto funds over the past week. The outflow of funds has been observed for the second week in a row. Meanwhile, the largest Australian financial conglomerate Commonwealth Bank of Australia stated a sharp increase in interest in crypto assets among clients. The bank intends to double the department responsible for the crypto industry. Among the big news, it is worth noting the number of burned ETH tokens in the Ethereum network, which exceeded 2 million. The process of burning altcoins began on August 5 after the release of the London update, which changed the mechanism for calculating commissions for transactions. Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak called for the legalization of cryptocurrency mining, recognizing it as a taxable business. A number of observers believe that this could be a way for Russia to capitalize on its energy potential in the face of reduced demand for Russian oil and gas.
The release of Chinese GDP, Bank of Canada interest rate decision and more - InstaForex talks the following week (part I)

China Stocks Go Up As There Might Be More Buybacks Coming

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 23.03.2022 14:35
March 23, 2022  $USD, Canada, China, Currency Movement, Federal Reserve, Japan, UK Overview: The capital markets are subdued through the early European morning.  The continued sell-off of the yen (almost 5% this month) and anticipation of more share buybacks in China helped lift equities in the Asia Pacific after the strong performance of the US indices yesterday. The S&P 500 closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time in a month and reached its highest level since February 9.  The NASDAQ closed at its best level since February 16, around 13% above the March 14 low.  European shares are threatening to snap a five-day advance.  US futures are better offered.  The sell-off in bonds may be taking a breather in Europe, where yields are mostly 3-4 bp lower.  The 10-year Treasury yield poked above 2.40% before softening to around 2.36%.  The dollar is firm against most of the major currencies, while emerging market currencies are mixed.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is posting a small gain for the second consecutive session.  Gold is flattish in a a little more than a $5-range on either side of $1925, the middle of the $1900-$1950 broader range.  May WTI is s firmer, above $111 in the European morning.  A move above yesterday's $113.35 high could signal another run at the high from earlier this month around $126.40.  US natgas is consolidating after yesterday's nearly 6% rally.  Europe's natgas benchmark is up almost 4% after yesterday's 3.4% advance.  It fell almost 5% on Monday.  Iron ore rose nearly 2% today, its first gain of the week.  It lost about 4.7% over the past two sessions.  Copper is quiet inside yesterday's narrow range.  May wheat is edging higher and recouping yesterday's small decline.  It is consolidating after rallying 5.2% on Monday.    Asia Pacific Chinese tech companies are in play.  Alibaba announced it was expanding its share buyback efforts yesterday and Xiaomi did the same today.  More tech firms, rich in cash, are expected to follow suit in the coming days.  Hong Kong Technology Index has rallied 40% from last week's low, which still leaves it around 50% below last year's peak.   The dollar reached JPY121.40 today.  At the end of last week, BOJ Governor Kuroda seemed to approve the yen's slide, by observing that the weakness was still helpful for the economy overall. The question that naturally arises is there a BOJ's pain threshold.  Some observers see it around JPY125, based on Kuroda's comments from back in 2015. In 2015, the dollar peaked near JPY125.85.  More immediately, the BOJ faces a fresh challenge to its Yield Curve Control stance, which caps the 10-year yield at 0.25%.  It rose to almost 0.23%, just shy of last month's high that prompted the BOJ offer to buy bonds there.  Still, until the Japanese or US pain threshold is found, the market still seems content to buy dollars on pullbacks against the yen.  Initial support now is seen ahead of JPY120.50.  Note that the one-month put-call skew (25 delta risk reversal) traded in favor of US dollar calls for the first time since last November.  The three-month skew narrowed to almost -0.38%, the least in almost five-months.  The skew typically sees dollar calls sell at a discount and it is often linked to Japanese exporters protecting their dollar receivables.  The Australian dollar extended its advance to almost $0.7480, its best level since early last November as well to approach its upper Bollinger Band.  It met some resistance and slipped to around $0.7450.  Initial support is seen in the $0.7430-$0.7440 area.  The greenback's strength is proving too much for the Chinese yuan.  It has recorded higher lows for the fourth consecutive session and is trying to establish a foothold above CNY6.37.   Recall, that the US dollar bottomed late last month near CNY6.3065.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3558.  The median projection in Bloomberg's survey was CNY6.3540.  The Chinese 10-year premium over US Treasuries has fallen to almost 40 bp, the least since February 2019.    Europe It is all about the UK today.   First, late yesterday, the US and UK struck a deal that will lift the odorous steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on national security grounds.  Rather than reverse itself immediately, the Biden administration used the tariffs to get concessions from Europe and Japan as well that will limit the metal exports to the US-based on historic market share.  The UK agreed to lift its retaliatory tariffs.  Second, the UK February CPI was a little higher than expected.  The CPIH, which includes owner-occupied cots, rose to 5.5% from 4.9% in January.  The median forecast (Bloomberg survey) was for 5.4%.  After falling by 0.1% in January, CPI rose 0.8% in February.  The market looked for a 0.6% gain.  Core CPI is up 5.2% from a year ago, accelerating from 4.4% in January.  Turning to producer prices, output PPI rose 0.8%, slightly less than expected for a 10.1% year-over-year pace.  It had risen 9.9% in January.  Input price pressures were a bit stronger than expected, rising 1.4% in February after a revised 1.5% gain in January (initially 0.9%).  This lifted the year-over-year rate to 14.7% from a revised 14.2% pace.   The odds of a 50 bp move at the next MPC meeting (May 5) has edged up from around 25% chance at the end of last week to about 38% today.   Still on tap is Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak's Spring Budget Statement.  Reports have played up the likelihood of a modest cut in the fuel duty and perhaps a higher threshold for the health insurance tax.  There focus seems to be on easing the squeeze on the cost of living, which is set to worsen next month as the price cap on energy bill and taxes are set to rise.  Yesterday's news that the budget deficit is smaller than expected through the first 11 months of the fiscal year gives the Sunak some room to maneuver, but he is not expected to exhaust it. The euro recovered from yesterday's dip to about $1.0960, which met the (50%) retracement objective of the recovery form the March 7 test on $1.08.  However, the buying dried up near $1.1040.  A break of that $1.0960 area could spur a quick move to $1.0930, while a bounce needs to rise through $1.1060 to be anything of note.  The flash PMI due tomorrow are expected to have softened but a significant disappointment may play on fears that the war and energy shock will drive the eurozone into a recession.  Sterling finally pushed above the $1.3200 cap yesterday and traded to almost $1.33 today before meeting strong offers.  It was pushed back to a little below $1.3220 in the European morning.  Provided the $1.3200-level holds now, our target near $1.34 is still reasonable.   America There was only one dissent from the FOMC meeting last week as Bullard wanted to hike by 50 bp.  Many observers were critical of the Fed for not taking more decisive action.  However, the dispute at the Fed appears to be over minor tactical differences.  Chair Powell came out swinging earlier this week and the market took the bait and now prices in not the 150 bp of hikes this year, which would imply a 25 bp hike at the remaining six meeting.  Instead, it is pricing in near 190 bp of tightening.  That means the Fed funds futures are pricing in not just one 50 bp move but is favoring a second 50 bp move too.  There seems to a growing consensus to raise the Fed funds rate toward neutral, and the difference between the doves and hawks seem to be narrow.  Today, the market hears from Powell (at the BIS again), San Fran Fed President Daly, and St. Loise Fed's Bullard.  The US economic calendar features MBA mortgage applications and February new home sales.  Typically, they are not market moving. Tomorrow is a different story: weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, and the flash PMI.  There have been two developments in Canada to note.  First, the railroad strike ended with the help of federal mediation after two days.  The strike had threatened to further disrupt the supply chains, especially for potash ahead of the beginning of the new planting season.  Second, Prime Minister Trudeau secured support for his minority government through a deal with the New Democrat Party.  In exchange for support in confidence votes, Trudeau will push for key elements in the NDP agenda, which overlaps in parts with his campaign promises.  New initiatives in housing, health care, and the environment are expected.  The net effect is that fiscal policy may not be as tight as expected.  That policy mix, tighter monetary and easier fiscal policy tends to be supportive of a currency.  Also, the market recognizes that easier fiscal policy may push the Bank of Canada to tighten monetary policy quicker.  The odds of a 50 bp move at next month’s meeting (April 13) increased from about 55% at the end of last week to a little more than 70% now.   Mexico will report its bi-weekly CPI figures for the first half of March tomorrow alongside January retail sales.  Late tomorrow, Banixco is expected to deliver its third consecutive 50 bp increase in the overnight rate to 6.50%.  Argentina and Paraguay hiked yesterday.  Chile and Colombia are expected to hike next week.  Separately, reports suggest that Mexico will not carry out its plans to cut oil exports in half this year and cease them entirely next year.  President AMLO already seemed to be softening his push.  The windfall from the surge in prices appears too good to pass up.  That said, PEMEX output appears to have fallen by around 200k barrels a day from the end of 2021.     The US dollar appears to be forging a base around CAD1.2565 this week.  A move above CAD1.2625 might signal a near-term low is in place.  Recall that the greenback peaked last week by CAD1.2870.  There has been a small shift in rate differentials in the Canadian dollar's favor.  The US 2-year premium has narrowed from around 17 bp on March 9, the most since Q3 19, to around three basis points today.  The 10-year differential has switched and now Canada offers a small premium (~5-6 bp), which is the most since the end of last year.  The US dollar is also edging lower against the Mexican peso and is testing the MXN20.25 area. The low for the year was set in late February near MXN20.1575.  The 200-day moving average (~MXN20.4250) has capped the greenback so far this week.     Disclaimer
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos on the front foot as rebound turns into new uptrend

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos on the front foot as rebound turns into new uptrend

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.03.2022 16:22
Bitcoin price set to touch $45,000 by tomorrow if current tailwinds keep supporting price action. Ethereum price set to rally another 12%, with bulls targeting $3,500.00XRP price undergoes consolidation as the next profit level is $0.90.Bitcoin price, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies are enjoying a calm week with tailwinds finally able to thrive without constant interruption from headlines about Ukraine or Russia. Markets are also starting to adjust to the situation, with no immediate or significant movements anymore triggered by headlines coming out. Expect to see more upside with several possible cryptocurrencies eking out the best week of the year thus far.Bitcoin price has a defined game plan with $44,088 as the target for today and $45,261 by the weekendBitcoin (BTC) price is on the front foot for a third consecutive day as the rally turns into a broader uptrend. The crucial thing will be to see where BTC price will close this week, as bears need to get weakened with several short squeezes and breakouts running stops from short-sellers. Despite being elevated, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still not near the 'overbought' level, providing enough incentive for bulls and investors to keep buying BTC price action.BTC price is set to hit $44,088.73 today, the level of the March 03 highs. If that is gained – and given the current tailwinds – markets will start to expect Bitcoin to eke out new highs for the month with still a week to go. This additional bullish element should help conclude a daily close above $44,088.73. A support test on that same level will trigger new inflows from investors and provide the needed juice to pump price action up to $45,261.84, topping $45,000.00.BTC/USD daily chartA tail risk comes from the big joint meeting today in Brussels, with Biden meeting NATO, the G7 and E.U. leaders. An embargo on gas is on the table and could roil markets if the E.U. decides to walk away from Russian gas supplies, opening up the possibility of further Russian retaliation in Ukraine. That would make global markets move back to risk-off mode, with Bitcoin price dropping back to support at $39,780.68, and intersecting with the green ascending trend line. Ethereum price targets $3,500 after bulls force a daily close above $3,018.55Ethereum (ETH) price is performing a 'classic long' trading plan today after bulls pushed a daily close above $3,018.55. With price action in ETH opening slightly above this level, this morning, the price has faded slightly back towards that same $3,018.55 level to find support and offer the opportunity for new bulls and investors to enter the market. Ethereum price will move back to the upside and continue its rally, which is currently looking more and more like an uptrend that could continue over a broader time frame.ETH price will therefore need to find support around $3,018.55 as the fade will need to be kept in check, as too large a fade could spook investors. Seeing as the current favourable tailwinds are quite broadly present in global markets, expect to see another uplift towards $3,200 and $3,391.52 depending on the number of new positive headlines acting as additional accelerators. With those moves, at least new highs for March will be printed and possibly for February, depending on how steep the rally can continue.ETH/USD daily chartThe risk for Ethereum price is that price action slips back below $3,018.55. That could open the door for bears to jump in again and run price action back to $2,835.83, which is the low of March 21 and the monthly pivot. An additional fail-safe system is the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $2,808.84 as an additional supportive factor to take into account.https://youtu.be/wgpCSH70SIQXRP price undergoes consolidation as the bullish breakout hits $0.90Ripple's (XRP) price has bears and bulls being pushed towards each other as the bodies of the candles from the past two sessions grow very thin. This points to bulls and bears fighting it out and neither yet having the upper hand. Bears are defending the area above $0.8390 from bulls running to $0.8791, and bulls are trying to defend their support at $0.7843. With lower highs and higher lows, the stage is set for a breakout that, seeing the current tailwinds, will probably favour bulls, and result in a quick move towards $0.8791.XRP price is thus set to print new highs for March. With the stock markets having their best performing week for this year, expect to see even more tailwinds spilling over to cryptocurrencies and bulls targeting $0.9110. At that level, bulls will run into the 200-day SMA which will possibly be the halting point of the current uptrend as investors will need to reassess the situation before they advance. Where global markets are at that point and how far off a peace treaty is between Russia and Ukraine will determine if bulls will advance towards $1.00 in XRP price.XRP/USD daily chartAlthough several statements suggest it is unlikely, should Putin be backed further into a corner, the use of nuclear weapons could cast a dark shadow on markets. Expect a massive drop in equities and cryptocurrencies with those headlines coming out, where XRP price will fall towards $0.7843 or even $0.7600. In the first case, the historic pivotal level will provide support and further down, the monthly pivot is set to intertwine with the 55-day SMA, which should be enough to catch any falling-knife action. https://youtu.be/ZWrKMd2CiL8
Bitcoin has become a leading indicator of investor sentiment

Bitcoin has become a leading indicator of investor sentiment

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 29.03.2022 08:51
BTC is up 4% on Monday, ending the day around $48K, and corrected by about 1% to $47.5K on Tuesday morning. Ethereum was up 1.8% in the last 24 hours to $3.4K. Terra is a leader of the day According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 1% over the day, to $2.15 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1 points to 42.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed rose by 11 points over the day, to 60, and moved from neutral level to the "greed" grade. On Tuesday, the index dropped to 56 points. Among the leading altcoins, Terra soared by 10%, Doge corrected by 2%. In most others, there is a slight correction in the growth of the last days, but they are in positive territory over the last day. Bitcoin continued to rise on Monday after it broke through the strong resistance of the February highs around $45K in the previous evening. By the end of the day, BTC has renewed the highs of early January above $48K, having won back the decline since the beginning of the year. Bitcoin is correlating with S&P500 The growth of the first cryptocurrency rested on the 200-day moving average ($48.2K). Confident consolidation above it promises to strengthen and expand the growth of the entire crypto market and breathe fresh impetus into the growth of bitcoin. In December, we saw a false break, but then the price levels were higher, and corrective sentiment intensified in the stock markets. Now Bitcoin is growing along with the rise of stock indices and often even acts as a leading indicator of investor sentiment. According to Arcane Research, BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 stock indicator recently hit a 17-month high. According to CoinShares, institutions invested $193 million in crypto funds last week, and it was the most significant amount in three months. Glassnode believes that the Bitcoin trend has already changed to bullish, as evidenced by the increase in the number of addresses accumulating BTC.
FX Daily: Talking up the euro

Monthly Dividend Stocks You Should Check Out! ORC Stock, AGNC Stock And AVAL

Sure Dividend Sure Dividend 01.04.2022 17:44
Many investors own equities in order to generate reliable income in an environment where treasuries and other fixed-income investments do not offer attractive yields. Stocks that offer monthly dividends can be especially attractive for income generation purposes, as that allows for more regular reinvesting for those that do not need the income now. Those that want to live off their dividends benefit from very regular, non-fluctuating proceeds on a month-to-month basis. In this article, we'll highlight the top three of the monthly dividend stocks from our coverage universe. 1: Orchid Island Capital Orchid Island Capital (ORC) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT). The company is valued at $600 million today, trading for slightly above $3 per share. Orchid Island Capital is externally managed, by Bimini Advisors. Generally, externally managed REITs are somewhat inferior compared to internally managed REITs due to a less competitive cost structure. But at the right price, externally managed REITs can still be a strong investment. Orchid Island Capital primarily invests in residential mortgage-backed securities, or RMBSs. This business has been quite profitable for Orchid Island in the recent past. During the most recent quarter, ORC generated net profits of $26 million, or more than $100 million on an annualized level. The company is sharing these strong profits with its owners. The current dividend stands at $0.045 per share per quarter. This makes for a dividend yield of 16% at the current share price. It should be noted that the dividend was reduced by 18% in March, prior to that, the dividend stood at $0.055 per month. Dividend reductions generally aren't positive, but since the yield is still very high, investors buying at current prices will likely still be happy with the result. In fact, even if Orchid Island Capital were to cut its dividend by another 18%, the dividend yield would still be pretty high, at 13%. We do not expect meaningful earnings growth from Orchid Island Capital. A flattening yield curve generally puts pressure on the earnings growth of mREITs, and in 2022 yield curves have compressed meaningfully so far. But even without any earnings growth, Orchid Island Capital could generate compelling total returns, thanks to its high dividend yield. Between some book value growth, some multiple compression, and its 16% dividend yield, we believe that Orchid Island Capital could easily deliver double-digit returns going forward. 2: AGNC Investment Corp. AGNC Investment (AGNC) is another mortgage REIT. With a market capitalization of $7 billion, it is considerably larger than ORC, however. AGNC Investment primarily owns agency mortgage-backed securities. Agency MBS are those created by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Most of the MBSs AGNC Investment owns are comprised of mortgages with a 30-year maturity period, while counterparties for AGNC primarily are located in the US, with some exposure to European counterparties on top of that. Compared with some other mREITs, the long maturity period and agency nature of most of AGNC's MBSs makes AGNC Investment's portfolio less risky. Like Orchid Island Capital and other mREITs, AGNC will likely feel some headwinds from a flattening yield curve. The spread between the short-term rate at which AGNC borrows and the longer-term rate at which it lends compresses when the yield curve flattens, which leads to lower profitability, all else equal. Due to portfolio growth, AGNC could be able to offset these headwinds, however. We nevertheless calculate with a growth rate of zero. Even in that scenario, AGNC Investment looks like a solid income pick. The company currently yields 10.8%, based on a dividend of $0.12 per share per month. The dividend has been at that level for around two years, following a dividend reduction in early 2020. We do not believe that the dividend will grow going forward, as earnings growth will not be meaningful, and since AGNC Investment has not increased its dividend in a long period of time. Even without any dividend growth, payouts to investors will be attractive, thanks to a high initial yield. Between the yield of close to 11% and some multiple expansion potential, we believe that returns could easily be in the double-digit range going forward. 3: Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) is a Colombian holding company. Its main assets include equity stakes in several banks, such as Banco de Bogota or Banco Popular. The holding company is majority-owned by one of Colombia's richest persons, Louis C. Sarmiento, who owns around 80% of AVAL. Being a Colombian company, AVAL makes its dividend payments in Colombian Pesos. For US-based investors, the size of the dividend thus fluctuates to some degree, as the COP/USD exchange rate impacts dividends once translated to US Dollars (the same holds true for other non-Colombian shareholders). AVAL has been making monthly dividend payments since 2014, i.e. for about eight years. Grupo Aval has not been able to grow its earnings-per-share reliably in the past. Instead, earnings-per-share moved up in some years, and down in other years. To some degree, this can be explained by the ups and downs in the Colombian economy over the last decade. The Colombian economy is quite exposed to commodity pricing around the world, as Colombia is an oil-exporting country. Other commodities that are exported from Colombia include agricultural products such as coffee and fruits, and metals and steel. With commodity prices rising rapidly in 2021 and early 2022, the Colombian economy should be in a good position this year. This should have a positive impact on the business environment for the banks that AVAL owns equity stakes in. In turn, this should lead to improving profitability for AVAL, which is why we believe that profits over the next couple of years will be higher compared to what we saw over the last couple of years. We forecast that AVAL's earnings-per-share will rise at a low-to-mid-single digits rate going forward. On top of that, investors should also benefit from some multiple expansion in the coming years, as AVAL is rather inexpensive today, trading for just 5x-6x its expected net profits. Add a dividend yield of around 6%, and it seems likely that AVAL will offer total returns of at least 10% annually going forward.
The Swing Overview - Week 13 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 13 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:41
The Swing Overview - Week 13 Equity indices closed the first quarter of 2022 in a loss under the influence of geopolitical tensions. The Czech koruna strengthened as a result of the CNB raising interest rates to 5%, the highest since 2001. The US supports the oil market by releasing 180 million barrels from its strategic reserves. War in Ukraine   The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than a month and there is still no end in sight. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations have not led to a result yet. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin has decided that European countries will pay for Russian gas in rubles. This has been described as blackmailing from Europe's point of view and is not in line with the gas supply contracts that have been concluded. A way around this is to open an account with Gazprombank where the gas can be paid for in euros. Geopolitical tensions are therefore still ongoing and are having a negative effect on stock markets.   Equity indices have had their worst quarter since 2020 US and European equities posted their biggest quarterly loss since the beginning of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out and the global economy was in crisis. Portfolio rebalancing at the end of the quarter boosted demand for bonds and kept yields lower.   On Tuesday, the yield curve briefly inverted, meaning that short-term bonds yields were higher than  long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is a signal of a recession according to many economists. It means that future corporate profits should be rather behind expectations and stock prices might reflect it.    On Thursday, the S&P 500 index fell 1.6%. The Dow Jones industrial index also fell by 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 1.5%. The European STOXX 600 index closed down by 0.94%. Even after last week's rally, as investors celebrated signs of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the S&P 500 index is still down 5% for the first three months, its worst quarterly performance in two years.  Figure 1: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The SP 500 index reached the resistance level at 4,600, which it broke, but then closed below it. This indicates a false break. The new nearest resistance is in the range of 4,625 - 4,635. Support is at 4,453 and then significant support is at 4,386 - 4,422.   German DAX index The DAX index has rallied since March 8 and has reached the resistance level which is in the 14,800 - 15,000 range.  However, the index started to weaken in the second half of the week. The news that Russia will demand payments for gas in rubles, which Western countries refuse, contributed to the index's weakening. The fear of gas supply disruption then caused a sell-off.    Figure 2: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Resistance is between 14,800 - 15,000 according to the daily chart. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 14,100 - 14,200.   The euro remains in a downtrend The euro was supported at the beginning of the week by hopes for peace in Ukraine. However, by the end of the week, the Ukrainian President warned that Russia was preparing for more attacks and the Euro started to weaken. News of Russia's demand to pay for gas in rubles had a negative effect on the euro as well. Figure 3: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. From a technical point of view, we can see that the EURUSD according to the daily chart has reached the resistance formed by EMA 50 (yellow line). The new horizontal resistance is in the area of 1.1160 - 1.1180. Support is at 1.0950 - 1.0980. The euro still remains in a downtrend.   CNB raised the interest rate In the fight against the inflation, the CNB decided to further raise the interest rate by 0.50%. Currently, the base rate is at 5%, where it was last in 2001. The interest rate hike is aimed at slowing inflation by slowing demand through higher borrowing costs.   Figure 4: Interest rate developments in the Czech Republic In addition, a strong koruna should support the slowdown in inflation. The koruna could appreciate especially against the euro due to higher interest rates. However, the strengthening of the koruna is conditional on the war in Ukraine not escalating further.  We can see that the koruna against the euro is approaching a support around 24.30. The low of this year was 24.10 korunas for one euro. Figure 5: USD/CZK and EUR/CZK on the daily chart. The koruna is also strengthening against the US dollar. Here, however, the situation is slightly different in that the US Fed is also raising rates and is expected to continue raising rates until the end of the year. Therefore, the interest rate differential between the koruna and the dollar is less favourable than between the koruna and the euro. The appreciation of the koruna against the dollar is therefore slower.   Currently, the koruna is at the support of 22 koruna per dollar. The next support is at 21.70 and then 21.10 koruna per dollar, where this year's low is.   Oil has weakened Oil prices saw the deep losses after the news that the United States will release up to 180 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserves as part of measures to reduce fuel prices. US crude oil fell 5.4% and Brent crude oil fell 6.6% on Thursday after the news. Figure 6: Brent crude oil on a monthly and daily chart We can see that a strong bearish pinbar was formed on a  monthly chart. The nearest support is in the zone 103 – 106 USD per barel. A strong support is around 100 USD per barel which will be closely watched.  
Forex: Could Incoming ECB Decision Support Euro?

(TSLA) Tesla To Beat A Record!? (NFLX) Netflix Earnings Has Moved The Markets, But Elon Musk's Company Surely Has Something Up Its Slevee!

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 20.04.2022 13:22
Netflix plunged over 20% in the after-hours trading, following the release of Q1 2022 earnings report. Subscriber base shrank by 200,000, marking the first drop in overall users in more than a decade. The drop was led by a loss of 700 thousand subscribers from Russia as the company suspended services in the country and as competition in the streaming sector continues to become more challenging. Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun US indices have been increasingly reactive to this earning season Today, investors will focus on the highly anticipated earnings release form Tesla, which managed to mostly mitigate the impact of supply shortages and rising inflation thus far while expanding its production facilities. While growing concerns relating to covid-19 related lockdowns in China persist, investors will be keeping a close eye on Q1 results along with the company's outlook for the rest of 2022 after Elon Musk attracted additional attention after offering to buy Twitter at a significant premium. US indices have been increasingly reactive to this earning season after many investors have started to look past the initial shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and today could be no exception. Read next: Altcoins' Rally: Solana (SOL) Soars Even More, DOT and SHIBA INU Do The Same! | FXMAG.COM Oil prices attempt to recover after 6% drop Oil is trading higher after prices dropped significantly following the long easter weekend. WTI broke above $103 per barrel while Brent jumped above $108 at the start of today's session but appear to remain constrained in a narrow range for the time being. Traders await today's EIA inventory report which is expected to show a 2.5 million barrel increase after yesterday's API report defied expectations by indicating a 4.5 million barrel drop. While rising demand concerns caused by the increase in covid lockdowns in China continue to pressure the price, the uncertain situation relating to the potential import ban of Russian energy from Europe remains a key topic to watch and may cause noticeable volatility if things were to change suddenly.  
Elon Musk Steals The Show! (TWTR) Twitter Stock News and Forecast: TWTR stock bows to Tesla king's takeover

Elon Musk Steals The Show! (TWTR) Twitter Stock News and Forecast: TWTR stock bows to Tesla king's takeover

FXStreet News FXStreet News 26.04.2022 16:51
TWTR is to be taken over by Tesla boss Elon Musk. Musk is a prolific user of this popular social network. Twitter board completes a remarkable turnaround in double-quick time. Cash is king they say and that certainly seems to be the case for the Twitter (TWTR) board as they did one of the sharpest 360s in stock market history. After only last week more or less rejecting Elon Musk's takeover approach they did a swift u-turn that an indy car driver would have been proud of. Last week the board was adamant that they would fight to the last against Elon Musk's bid and even instigated a poison pill defense. This was an unusual and highly aggressive move and is not one often used in corporate takeover battles. So it came as quite a surprise when the Wall Street Journal ran a story saying the Twitter board was meeting to reconsider their position and behold they took the second bite of Musk's cherry! Twitter (TWTR) stock news: Cash is King Elon Musk, the Tesla CEO – or to give him his official Tesla title – 'The Technoking of Tesla', looks to have forced a change of heart from the Twitter board once the cash was put on the table. Cash is always king and especially in this market. Once reports surfaced that Elon Musk had secured funding for the deal then the Twitter board made a sudden about-face from their strong initial defense. So Elon Musk's original and final offer as he put it for $54.20 per TWTR share was accepted by the Twitter board. No other bidders had materialized it seemed so the floor was open to Musk and only Musk. There had been speculation as to how he would secure funding or whether he would need to sell a large chunk of Tesla (TSLA) stock to fund the deal but given his status, it always seemed fairly odds on that someone would deem him good for the cash. He says he wants to keep the platform open and hopes his worst critics will remain on the platform as he is a free speech devotee Musk has made some pledges on how he sees the future for Twitter but these have been broad-based and vague. He says he wants to keep the platform open and hopes his worst critics will remain on the platform as he is a free speech devotee. He also reportedly wants to give users the ability to edit tweets. It remains to be seen how this advocacy of free speech will go down with regulators and governments. Already, the EU is cracking down on big tech companies and their content moderation. It seems Musk wants to move Twitter in the other direction. The White House commented on the deal saying 'No matter who owns or runs Twitter, the President has long been concerned about the power of large social media platforms [and] the power they have over our everyday lives'. Donald Trump has already come out and said he has no plans to return to Twitter even if his account is unlocked. The former President is of course bringing an alternative social media project to fruition, Truth Social via a SPAC deal with Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC). DWAC stock fell on Monday as Twitter now looks like a more open rival to this social media startup. TWTR stock forecast $54.20 is the offer level and with no other bidder appearing it seems likely this one will trade at a discount until closer to the final deal date. Merger arb players will work out the risk premium and cost of carry and determine the risk worth taking in buying Twitter. Likely to be north of $50 with somewhere around $3 the likely risk premium. TWTR stock chart, daily
US Recession Cried Off!? Shocking Forex News! Could (EUR/USD) Euro To US Dollar Hit Levels Above 1.200!?

It's Like A Blockbuster! Crude Oil Price (BRENT/WTI) Electrify Markets As Elon Musk And Twitter (TWTR) Do The Same!

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 26.04.2022 10:46
Oil along with other risk assets is trading higher today as sentiment towards energy commodities and industrial metals improved slightly after declining over the last several days. However, it is important to note that the outlook for oil is still unclear as there are a number of contradicting factors impacting the price of the commodity. On one hand, there is still the risk of a total embargo on Russian oil by the West which is likely to exert an upward pressure on prices. Read next: What Is Chia Coin? - (XCH) - First New Nakamoto Coin Since Bitcoin Launch (2009) | FXMAG.COM Taking a look at the Brent oil chart, we can see that the price bounced off the $100.00 per barrel mark yesterday evening and... On the other hand, the pandemic situation in China and the country's response to it is creating the risk of an economic slowdown in the world's second largest economy. As China is a major consumer and importer of oil and industrial metals, lower demand from this country could have a visible impact on oil prices as well as other commodities and lead to a domino effect across global markets. Taking a look at the Brent oil chart, we can see that the price bounced off the $100.00 per barrel mark yesterday evening and managed to climb to the $103 resistance zone before pulling back slightly today and heading once again towards the $100. A similar situation can be noticed when looking at the Oil.WTI chart with a pullback from the $100 area and a current test of the $97,77 reaction zone. Read next: A Reward For A Transaction!? What Is Kishu Inu Coin? ($KISHU) Let's Take A Look At This New Altcoin  Investors focus on today’s mega cap earnings after Twitter accepts Elon Musk takeover offer After a tense round of negotiations, Twitter accepted Elon Musk's offer and will be bought for $54.20 per share. The company will become private once the deal is completed after he initially became the largest shareholder by buying around 9% of shares. The market reacted favorably to this news with the stock price gaining 5.6% yesterday despite much controversy surrounding the issue. While the situation remains uncertain, it is likely that the effects of this news will have ripple effects across stock markets. However, investors will also be switching their attention to today's mega cap earnings reports in what will be a week filled with high level earnings. Microsoft and Alphabet are due to report their earnings today after market close which could have a noticeable impact on stock markets, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, both of which have been trying to halt a series of losses.  
The Upside Bias Of Crude Oil Is Still Solid

WTI Crude Oil Prices Soaring Today Amidst The EU Announcing Their Plans To Ban Russian Oil Imports.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.05.2022 13:11
Summary: Major concerns around supply of oil. EU to cut demand for all Russian energy imports within a year. Read next: (HOOD) Can Robinhood Recover From Their Q1 Earnings Announcement ?!  Crude Oil Prices Continue To Surge. The ongoing lockdown in China caused the prices of crude oil to fall, the fall comes despite the production issues around oil. The concerns about supply of oil have become much more serious, according to the International Energy Agency, crude oil demand is meant to increase this year, this outlook remains even taking into account the reduction in demand as a result of the extended lockdowns in China. The concerns around supply have outweighed the fall early this week, especially after the EU’s intentions to stop imports of Crude Oil from Russia within 6 months, and all energy within 1 year. European Union’s plans to ban Russian Crude Oil Imports. The European Union announced their plans to ban imports for Russian crude oil within the next 6 months, the announcement pushed the price of WTI crude oil up by almost 4%. This move comes in an attempt to cut off Russia from the EU and by doing so, starve their economic reserves which are currently funding Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart. Read next: (TWTR) Twitter Share Price Down After Musk Takeover Gets Approved.  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barrons.com
The Euro Will Strengthen, But Questions Remain About What To Do Next

(EUR/USD) Hopes Of A Hawkish ECB Shows Favour To The Euro, (EUR/GBP) UK CPI Inflation Data Knocks The Pound Sterling - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 18.05.2022 13:55
Summary: The Euro claws back marginally against the USD. UK CPI inflation data knocks the Pound Sterling against both the Euro and The USD. USD/CAD bearish. Read next: (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP) Euro Strengthens In The Wake Of Villeroys Comments On Monday, (AUD/JPY), (GBP/USD) Pound Sterling Showing Strength - Good Morning Forex!  EUR showing signs of potential recovery Market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals on Wednesday. The Euro gained 1.1% on the USD overnight, however it lost more than 0.3% during the trading day on Wednesday. In general, investor confidence has been returning to the market, this has been helped by the fact that U.S retail sales rose in April. It seems as though the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy in conjunction with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will turn hawkish after representative Klaas Knot suggested an interest rate hike is on the table. EUR/USD Price Chart UKs CPI Inflation knocks the Pound Sterling The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bearish signals. The Euro has gained on the GBP after UKs headline CPI inflation rate came out at 9% for April, which beat market expectations, however is still up 2% from March. The most recent data for the UK economy did not shock the markets, therefore, the long-term effect of this data is unlikely to have a big effect on the Pound Sterling. At the last policy-setting meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) pushed interest rates up by 1%, the recent CPI inflation data suggests that the BoE will likely need to continue tightening their monetary policy. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/CAD currency pair The USD/CAD currency pair is signalling bearish market sentiment, this bearish sentiment is not expected to continue for long in the future. With the hawkish Fed fighting inflation, the USD is expected to get stronger going forward. USD/CAD Price Chart Pound Sterling loses to the US Dollar The market sentiment is showing bullish signals for this currency pair, however the GBP has weakened against the USD on Wednesday. The weakening of the Pound Sterling comes after the release of CPI inflation data. GBP/USD Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF) ECBs Hint To Raise Interest Rates Offers Some Relief For The Euro - Good Morning Forex!  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Japanese Yen Has The Worst Performer Among The G-10 Currencies

(EUR/USD, EUR/GBP) Market Participants Betting On A More Hawkish ECB, A Dovish BoJ Weighs On The Safe-Haven Currency (USD/JPY) - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.05.2022 12:39
Summary: The market sentiment for the EUR/USD currency pair turns mixed. Inflation and economic data weighing on the GBP. BoJ continues to fight rising interest rates. AUD strengthens amidst favourable unemployment data. The market seems to be favouring the Euro for a change The market is signalling mixed market sentiment for this currency pair. The U.S dollar lost ground to the EUR during Thursdays early trading, however, the demand for the safe-haven asset remains steady due to investor risk sentiment still being fragile. Earlier this week the Fed announced they would push interest rates as high as necessary to fight the surging inflation. On Thursday the market is waiting for the minutes from the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting to be released, hoping there will be an indication of a tightening in monetary policy. Read next: (EUR/USD) Hopes Of A Hawkish ECB Shows Favour To The Euro, (EUR/GBP) UK CPI Inflation Data Knocks The Pound Sterling - Good Morning Forex!  This begs the question: despite the Fed's already hawkish monetary policy, why is the market not pricing in much for the hawkish Fed, but pricing in a lot for the European Central Bank (ECB) ? EUR/USD Price Chart BoE and ECB expected to raise interest rates The market is reflecting a mixed market sentiment on Thursday. Earlier in the trading week, UK economic data releases weighted on the value of the Pound Sterling, global investor sentiment and the current equity bear market are both aspects that could mean further losses for the GBP. Earlier on in the trading week, the GBP gained on both the Euro and the US Dollar, but a midweek sentiment turn around has bought the Pound Sterling back down. Both the ECB and the Bank of England (BOE) are expected to raise interest rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News! USD continues to beat the JPY The Japanese yen seems to be an underperformer in the past week, perhaps this is due to the rising U.S yields by the Fed amidst the Bank of Japan (BoJ) fighting against tightening their monetary policy. Should the market face a big risk-off sentiment, the JPY might see some gains, however in this currency pair, it may not be noticeable due to the USD also being seen as a safe-haven currency. USD/JPY Price Chart AUD regains some investor confidence Market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish. Investor confidence has increased in the Australian Dollar after the unemployment rate for April came in at 3.9% which not only exceeded market expectations but is also the lowest rate since the 1970s. AUD/JPY Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP) Euro Strengthens In The Wake Of Villeroys Comments On Monday, (AUD/JPY), (GBP/USD) Pound Sterling Showing Strength - Good Morning Forex!   Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Swing Overview – Week 20 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 20 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 02.06.2022 16:36
The Swing Overview – Week 20 The markets remain volatile and fragile, as shown by the VIX fear index, which has again surpassed the level 30 points. However, equity indices are at interesting supports and there could be some short-term recovery. The euro has bounced off its support in anticipation of tighter monetary policy and the gold is holding its price tag above $1,800 per troy ounce. Is the gold back in investors' favor again? Macroeconomic data The week started with a set of worse data from the Chinese economy, which showed that industrial production contracted by 2.9% year-on-year basis and the retail sales fell by 11.1%. The data shows the latest measures for the country's current COVID-19 outbreak are taking a toll on the economy. To support the slowing economy, China cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.15% on Friday morning, more than analysts expected. While this will not be enough to stave off current downside risks, markets may respond to expectation of more easing in the future. On a positive note, data from the US showed retail sales rose by 0.9% in April and industrial production rose by 1.1% in April. Inflation data in Europe was important. It showed that inflation in the euro area slowed down a little, reaching 7.4% in April compared to 7.5% in March. In Canada, on the other hand, the inflation continued to rise, reaching 6.8% (6.7% in March) and in the UK inflation was 9% in April (7% in the previous month). Several factors are contributing to the higher inflation figures: the ongoing war in Ukraine, problems in logistics chains and the effects of the lockdown in China. Concerns about the impact of higher inflation are showing up in the bond market. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield has come down from the 3.2% it reached on 9 May and is currently at 2.8%. This means that demand for bonds is rising and they are once again becoming an asset for times of uncertainty.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on a daily chart   Equity indices on supports Global equities fell significantly in the past week, reaching significant price supports. Thus, there could be some form of short-term bounce. Although a cautious rally began on Thursday, which was then boosted by China's decision to cut interest rates in the early hours of Friday, there is still plenty of fear among investors and according to Louis Dudley of Federated Hermes, cash holdings have reached its highest level since September 2001, suggesting strong bearish sentiment. Supply chain problems have been highlighted by companies such as Cisco Systems, which has warned of persistent parts shortages. That knocked its shares down by 13.7%. The drop made it the latest big-stock company to post its biggest decline in more than a decade last week. The main risks that continue to cause volatility and great uncertainty are thus leading investors to buy "safe" assets such as the US bonds and the Swiss franc. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart From a technical analysis perspective, the US SP 500 index continues to move in a downtrend as the market has formed a lower low while being below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages on the H4 and daily charts. The nearest resistance is 4,080 - 4,100. The next resistance is at 4,140 and especially 4,293 - 4,300. Support is at 3,860 - 3,900 level. German DAX index The index continues to move in a downtrend along with the major world indices. The price has reached the support which is at 13,680 – 13,700 and the moving average EMA 50 on the H4 chart is above the SMA 100. This could indicate a short-term signal for some upward correction. However, the main trend according to the daily chart is still downwards. The nearest resistance is at 14,260 - 14,330 level. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The euro has bounced off its support The EUR/USD currency pair benefited last week from the US dollar moving away from its 20-year highs while on the euro, investors are expecting a tightening economy and a rise in interest rates, which the ECB has not risen yet as one of the few banks. Figure 4: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart   Significant support is at the price around 1.0350 - 1.040. Current resistance is at 1.650 - 1.700.   The Gold in investors' attention again The gold has underperformed over the past month, falling by 10% since April when the price reached USD 2,000 per ounce. But there is now strong risk aversion in the markets, as indicated by the stock markets, which have fallen. The gold, on the other hand, has started to rise. Inflation fears are a possible reason, and investors have begun to accumulate the gold for protection against rising prices. The second reason is that the gold is inversely correlated with the US dollar. The dollar has come down from its 20-year highs, which has allowed the gold to bounce off its support.  Figure 5: The gold on H4 and daily chart The first resistance is at $1,860 per ounce. The support is at $1,830 - $1,840 per ounce. The next support is then at $1,805 - $1,807 and especially at $1,800 per ounce.
Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol

Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol

Purple Trading Purple Trading 06.06.2022 08:55
Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol The volatility or market uncertainty index (VIX) is an invaluable tool used by many when analyzing markets. However, its trading also holds great potential. That's why we have decided to include it alongside our CFD futures symbols. Read this article and find out how and when to trade VIX as an CFD futures symbol. What is the VIX index and what does it indicate The Volatility Index (VIX), as the name suggests, is an index that is used to measure the level of market nervousness, uncertainty, and volatility. For these reasons, it is also sometimes called a fear gauge or fear index. The higher the VIX index values get, the greater the uncertainty in the markets and vice versa. However, it is very important to remember that the VIX index is a forward-looking index, so it shows the expected, not actual, market uncertainty.   How the VIX index is calculated VIX index measures 30 days of expected volatility of S&P 500 index, it does so by using S&P 500 options (SPX) listed on CBOE exchange as an input. VIX takes together all SPX call and put options and compares the changing demand and price between them.   Relationship between the VIX index and the markets The VIX index generally tracks the S&P 500 index in an inverse manner. That is, if the stock markets (S&P 500) are turbulent and investor nervousness/fear increases, the same can be observed for the VIX index. On the other hand, if stock prices are on the rise, the VIX index generally declines or advances sideways.   Meet: VIX.f - tradable CFD futures instrument Similar to other indices, the VIX is not tradable on its own and needs an investment vehicle to go with it. And that is what VIX.f is - a tradable continuous CFD futures instrument that behaves just like our other continuous CFD futures products. Its price is based on the underlying asset, which in this case is a specific VIX futures contract. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. It is also important to note that since this is a CFD instrument, you don’t become the owner of VIX.f when trading it. You only speculate on its price. How to trade VIX.f futures symbol VIX.f CFD futures is a very versatile symbol that can help traders and investors in several different situations:   Buy/long in case of an expected increase in volatility or turbulence in the markets Risk management or hedging vehicle for investors - through the inverse relationship of the VIX and the S&P 500 Option to open a short position in case of expecting a positive economic development in markets Overall, it should be noted that VIX.f futures is not recommended to be traded in a buy and hold manner, but rather as a short-term investment.Symbol specification: Symbol specification Name in Platform VIX.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trade hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.1 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50
Hedging as an effective form of protection from loss

Hedging as an effective form of protection from loss

Purple Trading Purple Trading 09.06.2022 12:19
Hedging as an effective form of protection from loss On the markets, it is used by both professional traders and big players such as banks, investment funds, and others. No wonder, because if you master hedging, it can help you to significantly reduce potential losses and keep you profitable. In this article, we'll show you how to hedge and which instruments are suitable for that. What is hedging? It is a kind of insurance in the form of a trading strategy. It is designed to mitigate potential risks. In hedging, traders (and also financial institutions) hold positions on assets/contracts that have an inverse relationship to each other and thus develop inversely. When one instrument falls, the other rises and vice versa.   Benefits There is one significant advantage to being "hedged". Namely, traders, with this form of insurance, are able to reduce the risks on their opened trading positions and thus better respond to adverse market developments that threaten these positions. At the same time, they have the comfort of being able to guess in advance the value of the maximum potential loss in the event that something goes wrong in the markets. Hedging is thus a really important tool in risk management.   Disadvantages Hedging is essentially a form of insurance. And as it happens, you have to pay for insurance. The same is true for investing in opposing instruments. By having one investment grow while the other declines, you lose a certain amount of potential profit. A theoretical example of hedging We have a trader who buys stock XY for $1000. He decides to hedge and to do so he chooses to buy a six-month put option for $100 with a strike price of $850. This means that our trader has half a year until the option expires to sell his stock at 850USD in case the market is unfavorable for him).   If the share price rises A six-month put option is about to expire and the share price is higher than 850 USD (e.g. 1150 USD). The trader will therefore logically not exercise his option, thus losing 100 USD (the original price of his option). However, by keeping XY stock, which is now worth 1150 USD, his net profit is 1050 USD (1150 - 100). As we wrote above, the hedging in this case reduced the trader’s overall profit, but that is a tax he needs to pay for being “insured”. The following example will show you what would have happened if the trader had not hedged.   The share price plunges In an alternate universe, our trader did not do well and the market gave him a slap in the face in the form of a drop in XY's share price to $600. However, our trader has hedged and exercises his still unexpired option. He can then sell his stock at the option price of the announced 850 USD. In this case, his total loss is 250 USD (850 - 600). If we would take a look at our trader in yet another alternative universe where he has not hedged, his loss would be 400 USD (1000 - 600). CFD hedging: the S&P500 and VIX index The current market developments, influenced by high inflation and the war in Ukraine, are not good for the markets. According to the VIX index, nervousness in the markets will continue to rise and stock indices like the SP500 are currently heading in exactly the opposite direction. However, did you know that these 2 mentioned indices can now be traded in Purple Trading to get a rather effective hedging tool? At Purple Trading, traders now have a unique opportunity to hedge using CFD futures contracts. Namely, we are now launching CFD futures symbols in the form of the VIX index and S&P500, which traders can find in their Purple Trading MT4 platforms. Both symbols have a highly inverse relationship with each other, which is why they are widely sought after when it comes to hedging. Chart 1: Six-month S&P500 price trend (note the apparent inverse relationship with the VIX chart below; source: Googlefinance.com) Chart 2: Six-month VIX price trend (note the apparent inverse relationship with the SP500 chart above) Relationship between VIX and S&P500 The VIX index is often called the fear or nervousness index. Its chart indicates the estimated future nervousness in the markets. This manifests itself in the form of volatility, i.e. sharp and seemingly random price fluctuations caused by nervous investors who are buying/selling more than usual. Thus, if the VIX index shows an increase, volatility/nervousness in the markets can be expected to increase. The exact opposite is true for the S&P500. It outright hates volatility and nervousness in the markets and if it is announced, the S&P500 usually starts to fall. This is due to nervous investors withdrawing from the stock markets to seemingly safer havens, which is gold for example. Thus, if the VIX index (hence volatility) rises, the S&P500 falls and vice versa. Effective hedging is one of the reasons why Purple Trading clients are among the most profitable in the EU FAQ
COT Week 25 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets mostly lower led by S&P500 Mini & Russell 2000

COT Week 25 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets mostly lower led by S&P500 Mini & Russell 2000

Invest Macro Invest Macro 25.06.2022 14:28
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as three out of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for stock markets was VIX (24,255 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (2,404 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (821 contracts) also showing a positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500 Mini (-148,597 contracts) and with Russell 2000 Mini (-10,350 contracts), Nikkei 225 Yen (-5,996 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (-4,840 contracts) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-3,184 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.   Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq Mini and the VIX are both in extreme bullish levels (above 80 percent). The Nikkei Stock Average is also above the midpoint of the past 3-year with a 69.9 percent score for a bullish reading. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the S&P 500 Mini and the Russell 200 Mini are leading the downside trends with -43.7 percent and -21.9 percent, respectively. The Nasdaq Mini and the Nikkei 225 Yen are the only markets with positive six week trends.   Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index S&P500-Mini 2,262,004 6 -114,319 35 144,197 92 -29,878 20 Nikkei 225 12,380 5 -1,592 70 2,139 40 -547 21 Nasdaq-Mini 236,624 34 30,806 92 -27,586 10 -3,220 42 DowJones-Mini 69,024 26 -25,473 4 28,937 98 -3,464 20 VIX 257,930 15 -49,923 84 55,730 16 -5,807 63 Nikkei 225 Yen 51,198 30 -3,047 25 25,170 88 -22,123 29   VIX Volatility Futures: The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -49,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 24,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,178 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.2 53.8 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 32.2 10.7 – Net Position: -49,923 55,730 -5,807 – Gross Longs: 46,982 138,746 21,718 – Gross Shorts: 96,905 83,016 27,525 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.2 16.2 63.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.0 -1.8 27.4   S&P500 Mini Futures: The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -114,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -148,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,278 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.1 75.7 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.2 69.4 11.3 – Net Position: -114,319 144,197 -29,878 – Gross Longs: 273,629 1,713,053 224,849 – Gross Shorts: 387,948 1,568,856 254,727 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.0 91.7 20.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.7 46.8 -5.2   Dow Jones Mini Futures: The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.9 69.8 15.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.8 27.9 20.1 – Net Position: -25,473 28,937 -3,464 – Gross Longs: 10,310 48,166 10,418 – Gross Shorts: 35,783 19,229 13,882 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.1 98.0 19.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 6.6 -16.3   Nasdaq Mini Futures: The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,402 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.0 46.9 16.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 58.5 17.7 – Net Position: 30,806 -27,586 -3,220 – Gross Longs: 82,888 110,913 38,577 – Gross Shorts: 52,082 138,499 41,797 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 9.5 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.7 -12.0 4.4   Russell 2000 Mini Futures: The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -105,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,246 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.1 88.3 3.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 69.3 3.7 – Net Position: -105,596 107,890 -2,294 – Gross Longs: 40,382 502,812 19,004 – Gross Shorts: 145,978 394,922 21,298 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.9 18.9 8.0   Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures: The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,413 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 56.8 17.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.1 39.5 22.1 – Net Position: -1,592 2,139 -547 – Gross Longs: 3,130 7,026 2,194 – Gross Shorts: 4,722 4,887 2,741 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.9 40.3 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.6 14.0 14.3   MSCI EAFE Mini Futures: The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,036 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.9 92.7 1.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 93.2 1.2 – Net Position: 196 -2,076 1,880 – Gross Longs: 18,931 358,172 6,538 – Gross Shorts: 18,735 360,248 4,658 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.1 77.7 35.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 7.7 -3.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 26 Charts: Stock Market Speculators bets dropped this week led by S&P500 Mini & Nasdaq Mini

COT Week 26 Charts: Stock Market Speculators bets dropped this week led by S&P500 Mini & Nasdaq Mini

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.07.2022 16:24
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as three out of the eight stock markets we cover had very small gains in positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for stock markets was Russell 2000 Mini (976 contracts) with the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (400 contracts) and VIX (354 contracts) also showing a positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the decreases in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-24,907 contracts) and the Nasdaq Mini (-6,616 contracts) with the MSCI Emerging Markets Mini (-6,141 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (-2,182 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (-23 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq Mini leads currently with an extreme bullish score of 89 percent. The VIX is also at an extreme bullish score of 84.4 percent while on the downside, the Russell 2000 Mini (1 percent) and the Dow Jones Mini (4.6 percent) are both in extreme bearish positions. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Nikkei 225 Yen (15 percent), Nasdaq Mini (5 percent) and the Nikkei 225 USD (2 percent) are the only markets with rising scores over the past six weeks. The S&P Mini (-38 percent) and the Russell 2000 Mini (-21 percent) lead the downward trends of strength scores. Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-28-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index S&P500-Mini 2,248,771 6 -139,226 30 168,405 96 -29,179 20 Nikkei 225 13,442 8 -1,615 70 2,101 40 -486 22 Nasdaq-Mini 248,045 41 24,190 89 -19,930 14 -4,260 40 DowJones-Mini 66,759 23 -25,073 5 29,675 99 -4,602 14 VIX 257,123 14 -49,569 84 56,789 17 -7,220 56 Nikkei 225 Yen 56,111 38 2,330 41 24,398 87 -26,728 20   VIX Volatility Futures: The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 354 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,923 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.4 54.5 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.7 32.4 11.4 – Net Position: -49,569 56,789 -7,220 – Gross Longs: 44,726 140,039 22,123 – Gross Shorts: 94,295 83,250 29,343 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.4 16.7 56.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.0 4.2 6.6   S&P500 Mini Futures: The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -139,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,319 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.0 76.8 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.2 69.3 11.3 – Net Position: -139,226 168,405 -29,179 – Gross Longs: 248,313 1,726,190 223,854 – Gross Shorts: 387,539 1,557,785 253,033 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.4 96.1 20.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.1 39.6 -3.2   Dow Jones Mini Futures: The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,473 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.5 70.5 14.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.1 26.1 21.8 – Net Position: -25,073 29,675 -4,602 – Gross Longs: 9,011 47,089 9,948 – Gross Shorts: 34,084 17,414 14,550 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.6 98.9 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 4.9 -12.8   Nasdaq Mini Futures: The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,190 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.8 51.9 14.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.1 59.9 16.0 – Net Position: 24,190 -19,930 -4,260 – Gross Longs: 78,987 128,769 35,528 – Gross Shorts: 54,797 148,699 39,788 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.5 14.2 39.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.0 -6.6 3.5   Russell 2000 Mini Futures: The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -104,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 976 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.2 88.3 3.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 69.0 4.2 – Net Position: -104,620 109,982 -5,362 – Gross Longs: 41,196 503,528 18,674 – Gross Shorts: 145,816 393,546 24,036 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.6 100.0 11.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.1 20.1 -4.1   Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures: The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,592 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 52.1 16.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.4 36.5 19.8 – Net Position: -1,615 2,101 -486 – Gross Longs: 4,220 7,007 2,177 – Gross Shorts: 5,835 4,906 2,663 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 40.1 22.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.5 -10.4 22.2   MSCI EAFE Mini Futures: The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.1 92.2 2.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 92.3 1.3 – Net Position: -1,986 -510 2,496 – Gross Longs: 19,973 360,111 7,717 – Gross Shorts: 21,959 360,621 5,221 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.8 79.9 40.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 0.5 6.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 27 Charts: Stock Market Speculators bets mostly lower led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE Mini

COT Week 27 Charts: Stock Market Speculators bets mostly lower led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE Mini

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.07.2022 14:15
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The stock market speculator bets were mostly lower for a second straight week this week as three out of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for stock markets was the Nasdaq Mini (6,705 contracts) with the VIX (4,068 contracts) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (1,990 contracts) also showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the decreases in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-44,456 contracts) and with MSCI EAFE Mini (-31,197 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-13,973 contracts), MSCI Emerging Markets Mini (-4,586 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-130 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq Mini (92.3 percent) is at the highest level of the stock markets currently followed by the VIX (86.4 percent). Both are in extreme bullish levels compared to the past three years of speculator sentiment. On the lower end, the Russell 2000 Mini (0 percent) and the MSCI EAFE Mini (0 percent) are in bearish-extreme levels and at their lowest level of positioning of the past three years. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the S&P500 Mini (-43.1 percent) and MSCI EAFE Mini (-37.5 percent) are leading the down-trending scores over the past six weeks. The Nasdaq Mini, meanwhile, leads the trends to the upside with a 9.6 percent trend change. Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend Jul-05-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index S&P500-Mini 2,309,241 8 -183,682 22 221,625 100 -37,943 18 Nikkei 225 14,508 11 -1,745 69 3,210 46 -1,465 10 Nasdaq-Mini 259,449 48 30,895 92 -25,919 11 -4,976 38 DowJones-Mini 67,437 24 -23,083 7 27,554 96 -4,471 15 VIX 266,933 17 -45,501 86 52,406 15 -6,905 58 Nikkei 225 Yen 60,276 44 3,916 46 25,226 88 -29,142 15   VIX Volatility Futures: The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -45,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,569 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.2 54.0 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.3 34.4 11.4 – Net Position: -45,501 52,406 -6,905 – Gross Longs: 45,972 144,271 23,601 – Gross Shorts: 91,473 91,865 30,506 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.4 14.6 57.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.0 0.7 2.3   S&P500 Mini Futures: The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -183,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -44,456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -139,226 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.3 77.6 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.2 68.0 11.5 – Net Position: -183,682 221,625 -37,943 – Gross Longs: 237,370 1,791,046 227,663 – Gross Shorts: 421,052 1,569,421 265,606 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.2 100.0 18.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.1 42.5 -3.8   Dow Jones Mini Futures: The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -23,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,990 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,073 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.4 67.4 15.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.6 26.5 22.0 – Net Position: -23,083 27,554 -4,471 – Gross Longs: 11,053 45,425 10,349 – Gross Shorts: 34,136 17,871 14,820 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.1 96.3 14.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.2 1.6 -12.2   Nasdaq Mini Futures: The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,190 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.2 52.9 13.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.3 62.9 15.6 – Net Position: 30,895 -25,919 -4,976 – Gross Longs: 83,514 137,186 35,380 – Gross Shorts: 52,619 163,105 40,356 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.3 10.6 38.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.6 -9.1 -4.8   Russell 2000 Mini Futures: The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -118,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,973 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,620 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.2 88.2 3.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 67.1 4.2 – Net Position: -118,593 123,533 -4,940 – Gross Longs: 42,435 517,591 19,684 – Gross Shorts: 161,028 394,058 24,624 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 12.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.8 24.2 -7.5   Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures: The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,615 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.4 55.8 15.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.4 33.7 25.6 – Net Position: -1,745 3,210 -1,465 – Gross Longs: 4,119 8,101 2,250 – Gross Shorts: 5,864 4,891 3,715 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.2 45.7 9.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.1 0.2 2.3   MSCI EAFE Mini Futures: The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -33,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -31,197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,986 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.1 90.6 3.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.9 84.8 1.8 – Net Position: -33,183 24,926 8,257 – Gross Longs: 21,492 384,305 15,954 – Gross Shorts: 54,675 359,379 7,697 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 91.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -37.5 33.7 41.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 28 Charts: Stock Market Speculators bets declined overall led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

COT Week 28 Charts: Stock Market Speculators bets declined overall led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.07.2022 15:25
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Weekly Speculator Changes COT stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower weekly net changes. Leading the gains for stock markets was the MSCI EAFE Mini (11,147 contracts) with the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (3,240 contracts) and Russell 2000 Mini (815 contracts) also showing  positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-31,846 contracts) and the VIX (-20,866 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (-11,479 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-206 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.   Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend Jul-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index S&P500-Mini 2,317,580 8 -215,528 16 247,687 100 -32,159 20 Nikkei 225 13,053 7 -1,951 68 3,206 46 -1,255 13 Nasdaq-Mini 254,260 45 19,416 86 -9,589 21 -9,827 28 DowJones-Mini 67,254 24 -19,843 11 25,635 94 -5,792 7 VIX 281,586 21 -66,367 76 73,802 25 -7,435 55 Nikkei 225 Yen 61,838 46 7,547 57 25,338 88 -32,885 7   Strength Scores Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (85.9 percent) leads the stocks and is currently in a bullish extreme position. The VIX (76.0 percent) and the Nikkei USD (68.2 percent) come in as the next highest stock markets in strength scores. On the downside, the Russell2000-Mini (0.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently (extreme bearish) and continues to scrape the bottom of its 3-year range. The DowJones-Mini (11.1 percent), EAFE-Mini (12.6 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (16.3 percent) round out the next lowest scores and are also in extreme bearish levels (below 20 percent). Strength Statistics: VIX (76.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (86.4 percent) S&P500-Mini (16.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (22.2 percent) DowJones-Mini (11.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (7.1 percent) Nasdaq-Mini (85.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (92.3 percent) Russell2000-Mini (0.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.0 percent) Nikkei USD (68.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (69.2 percent) EAFE-Mini (12.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (0.0 percent)   Strength Trends Strength Score Trends (or move index, that calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the DowJones-Mini (7.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks currently. The Nasdaq-Mini (7.7 percent) and the Nikkei USD (5.4 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data. The S&P500-Mini (-44.0 percent) and the Russell 2000-Mini (-22.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week followed by the EAFE-Mini (-20.7 percent) which saw an improvement from last week (-37.5 percent). Strength Trend Statistics: VIX (-10.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (-1.0 percent) S&P500-Mini (-44.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-43.1 percent) DowJones-Mini (7.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.2 percent) Nasdaq-Mini (7.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.6 percent) Russell2000-Mini (-22.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-24.8 percent) Nikkei USD (5.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-1.1 percent) EAFE-Mini (-20.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-37.5 percent) VIX Volatility Futures: The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -66,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,501 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent. VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.5 59.2 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.1 33.0 10.8 – Net Position: -66,367 73,802 -7,435 – Gross Longs: 40,825 166,659 23,039 – Gross Shorts: 107,192 92,857 30,474 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.0 25.0 55.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 10.1 4.8   S&P500 Mini Futures: The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -215,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -31,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -183,682 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 77.8 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 67.1 11.4 – Net Position: -215,528 247,687 -32,159 – Gross Longs: 224,577 1,802,289 233,148 – Gross Shorts: 440,105 1,554,602 265,307 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.3 100.0 19.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -44.0 39.8 -1.6   Dow Jones Mini Futures: The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -19,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,083 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.3 64.3 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.8 26.2 23.1 – Net Position: -19,843 25,635 -5,792 – Gross Longs: 13,674 43,227 9,777 – Gross Shorts: 33,517 17,592 15,569 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.1 93.9 7.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -5.1 -11.5   Nasdaq Mini Futures: The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,895 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 55.4 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.6 59.1 16.6 – Net Position: 19,416 -9,589 -9,827 – Gross Longs: 76,972 140,774 32,410 – Gross Shorts: 57,556 150,363 42,237 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.9 20.6 28.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -8.3 -0.7   Russell 2000 Mini Futures: The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -117,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,593 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.9 89.0 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 67.9 4.2 – Net Position: -117,778 123,998 -6,220 – Gross Longs: 40,461 523,195 18,305 – Gross Shorts: 158,239 399,197 24,525 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.5 100.0 8.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.2 22.1 -9.9   Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures: The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -206 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,745 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.9 62.1 14.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.9 37.5 24.4 – Net Position: -1,951 3,206 -1,255 – Gross Longs: 2,991 8,101 1,931 – Gross Shorts: 4,942 4,895 3,186 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.2 45.7 12.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.4 -2.0 -9.2   MSCI EAFE Mini Futures: The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,183 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.7 91.3 2.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.9 86.8 1.7 – Net Position: -22,036 19,139 2,897 – Gross Longs: 24,616 391,518 10,216 – Gross Shorts: 46,652 372,379 7,319 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.6 93.1 44.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.7 23.6 -14.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Investors? Bulls? Bears? These Series Are Linked To Finances

Investors? Bulls? Bears? These Series Are Linked To Finances

Purple Trading Purple Trading 15.07.2022 14:23
5 must-watch series from the world of finance With the boom of streaming services, investors are presented with often exciting opportunities. But today, we'll try to move away from looking at the world through the eyes of an investor and focus more on the content that streaming services offer. More accurately, we will take a look at the series that can be found on these platforms. But don’t worry, we won’t get too far from our beloved world of finance either. Financial world has always been an attractive subject not only for Hollywood screenwriters. Classics such as Wall Street (1986) and Wolf of Wall Street (2013) have not only grossed millions of dollars world-wide but even managed to convince many viewers into starting their own careers in finance. However, with the rise of streaming services, finance has also taken centre stage for a number of series. Some of the most well-known are the HBO-produced series Billions (2016) and Succession (2018). Today, let's take a look at a few lesser-known, but definitely not inferior series from the world of finance that are simply a must-watch. Devils (Sky, 2020) - a probe into investment bank’s speculation during global crises Produced by Italian broadcaster Sky, Devils is one of the most interesting European series in years. The plot follows Massimo Ruggero, who has risen from rags to riches as a head of the trading desk of the New York London Investment Bank (strikingly reminiscent of Goldman Sachs).   Massimo and his team speculate on the financial markets during the biggest events of the last 12 years. This gives viewers an insight into the behaviour of investment banks during the mortgage crisis, the Greek debt crisis and the Brexit vote, for example. The series is enriched with real time footage of international financial institutions meeting, mixing fiction with reality.   The second season premiered a few months ago and is of equal quality. With the main roles being masterfully played by Alessandro Borghi (known from the Suburra series and the film) and Patrick Dempsey (known from the Surgeons series).     Industry (HBO, 2020) - a series written by the bankers themselves Industry provides a grim and realistic look at what it's like to start a professional career in the financial sector in the heart of London. Here we follow a group of young bankers as they are trying to work their way up to a full-time position at one of London's investment banks, having to navigate this cutthroat and competitive environment as quick as possible.   The series captures well how depressing a given career can be and partially subverts any standards that may have been ingrained by titles such as Wall Street or Billions, taking off the rose-colored glasses of the viewer. Industry simply shows how challenging and competitive a career in finance can be.   As we watch the story of two main protagonists, experiencing their first successes and failures we simply have to wonder - will the desire for success and money prevail, or will the young bankers realise that there is more to life than the pursuit of money? The series, created by two former bankers, has completed its first season, with a second to follow later this year (2022).     Black Monday (Showtime, 2019) - when crisis meets satire   Welcome to the 1980s! A decade full of extravagant hairstyles, clothes and one of the biggest stock market crises in history. We're talking about "Black Monday", a single day in October 1987 during which world stock indices fell by tens of percent. As bleak as it might sound, Black Monday is the most light-hearted series on this list.   The series follows a group of traders from a second-rate Wall Street firm called the Jammer Group and uses satire and fiction to reveal the events that led to the aforementioned stock market crash. Don Cheadle, known from the Avengers franchise, stars in the lead role. The series ended after three seasons, all of which are currently available on HBO.   The Dropout (Hulu, 2022) - based on true events Enron, Worldcom and Theranos. Three of the biggest investor scams in decades. The Dropout series follows the story of Theranos - a company that promised to revolutionize blood testing. Founder Elizabeth Holmes managed to create an aura of success around herself and Theranos, fooling the biggest investment banks and the most famous investors. The company's market capitalization gradually climbed to $9 billion, which was almost unbelievable given the lack of a fully functional product.   The series reveals the rise and fall of the company and its founder, who went from being a female copy of Steve Jobs to an outlaw. However, If you're not too keen on dramatization of real events, we recommend watching the HBO documentary The Inventor: Out for blood in Silicon Valley. It also deals with this topic.   WeCrashed (Apple TV+, 2022) - when the marketing strategy goes too far   Investors who have followed the events of the US stock markets in recent years will immediately know that behind the title of this series lies the story of WeWork, a company that operates a network of co-working offices around the world. However, comparing WeWork to Theranos would be rather harsh, but there are several similarities.   The company's founder, Adam Neumann, has used a great marketing strategy to attract several major investors, most notably Softbank founder Masayoshi Son. Investors then valued the company at a hard-to-believe $47 billion ahead of its planned IPO. As the title of the series suggests, things did not go quite as planned. You can look forward to seeing well-known actors Jared Leto and Anne Hathaway in the lead roles.   Are you tempted by the world of stocks and even more so by shorting them?   At Purple Trading, you now have the opportunity to speculate on the rise and fall of more than 100 of the world's most famous companies and ride the current trend. And if you don’t feel like risking your own money, you can try it with virtual ones on our free demo account.  
Stock Market: Uber, Palantir And Moderna In Top 3...

Stock Market: Uber, Palantir And Moderna In Top 3...

Purple Trading Purple Trading 15.07.2022 13:08
TOP 3 most traded CFD stocks of this week Information is one of the most valuable commodities. No one can tell you with absolute certainty where any stock is headed. But sometimes you just need to know where, at what point, and why are investors taking the most positions to try to take advantage of the volume and volatility yourselves. We bring you a summary of this week’s top 3 most traded CFD stocks at Purple Trading. What is behind their popularity and what is the outlook for the future? You can find answers to these questions in today’s article. Uber Shares of the notoricaly loss-making taxi service are under a lot of pressure this year. They have lost more than half their value since January. Uber is now selling more than 50% below the price it was when it entered the stock markets in 2019. Comparing it to its all-time high of $63.18 in early January 2021 is even more dismal. The big drop in Uber stock isn't too surprising in the context of the company's financial results from the first quarter of the year. While Uber's revenue grew 136% year-over-year to $6.9 billion, its net loss came in at $5.9 billion due to failed investments in Grab, Aurora, and DiDi. Chart 1: Uber shares on the MT4 platform on the M15 timeframe along with the 100 and 200 day moving averages Uber has become the focus of investor attention in recent days due to leaked information about lobbying high-profile politicians such as French President Emmanuel Macron. The revelations of the scandal have made Uber shares very volatile, which traders have taken advantage of.   The outlook for the coming months is not very positive for the company - high fuel prices are making Uber's services more expensive and a possible recession could significantly affect the company's revenues. Uber's business can be described as rather cyclical and in times of recession the company could suffer as a result. Nor should we underestimate the impact of the growing coronavirus, which is once again beginning to plague the entire world.   However, Uber’s relatively low valuation (it is now trading near an all-time low) and its positive cash flow outlook for 2022 is what’s playing into Uber’s hands. The company will publish its 2Q earnings in early August, and no matter the outcome, Uber shares are likely to remain popular among traders.   Palantir Uber has become the focus of investor attention in recent days due to leaked information about lobbying high-profile politicians such as French President Emmanuel Macron. The revelations of the scandal have made Uber shares very volatile, which traders have taken advantage of.   The outlook for the coming months is not very positive for the company - high fuel prices are making Uber's services more expensive and a possible recession could significantly affect the company's revenues. Uber's business can be described as rather cyclical and in times of recession the company could suffer as a result. Nor should we underestimate the impact of the growing coronavirus, which is once again beginning to plague the entire world.   However, Uber’s relatively low valuation (it is now trading near an all-time low) and its positive cash flow outlook for 2022 is what’s playing into Uber’s hands. The company will publish its 2Q earnings in early August, and no matter the outcome, Uber shares are likely to remain popular among traders. Chart 2: Palantir shares on the MT4 platform on the M15 timeframe along with the 100 and 200 day moving averages Investors still have no idea where to classify Palantir - is it an army contractor or an IT company? The stock's performance so far this year would point more towards an IT company. Military contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies have had a great year so far, outperforming the S&P 500 index significantly. Palantir's CEO visited Ukraine in June in an effort to expand the company's operations. This obviously pleased investors, but potential expansion is difficult to quantify.   Moreover, the company's capitalization is still more than 10 times its annual revenue, a giant number compared to its competitors. Competitor Booz Allen Hamilton is currently selling for about 1.5 times annual sales, and the company's stock is near this year’s low. The company has a long track record of growing sales and, unlike Palantir, is profitable. Palantir's 2Q earnings are due in the first half of August. The company is expecting 25% year-on-year revenue growth. However, in the same period a year ago, the company grew revenue by 49%. Thus, any surprise in the earnings could cause high volatility. Palantir is definitely a stock to watch.    Moderna Seeing the famous vaccine producer among this week’s most traded companies in our CFD stock offering is not much of a surprise. Yet, back in mid-June, things were not looking good for Moderna shares - as this company was about 50% below the price we could see at the beginning of the year. However, the last month has been great for Moderna and its shares have soared almost by 50%. The reasons for this steep rise are clear - the coronavirus is once again on the rise globally. Since the beginning of June, the number of daily covid cases have practically doubled globally. The World Health Organisation has warned that the pandemic is far from over. This is just more water on the mill for companies such as Moderna and BioNTech. In addition, Moderna's actions were also helped by the June approval of a vaccine for American children and adolescents aged 6 months to 17 years. Chart 3: Shares of Moderna in the MT4 platform on the M15 timeframe along with the 100 and 200 day moving averages After the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, Moderna was the darling of investors for obvious reasons. Shares thus reached an all-time high of almost USD 500. Since last September, however, it has gone south sharply. Looking at the P/E ratio (the ratio of share price to earnings per share), Moderna looks very attractive - the ratio is now around 5, which is a great number for a pharmaceutical company. In addition, Moderna is well funded - the selling of coronavirus vaccines have given it very interesting liquidity.   The biggest concern for investors, however, is the future of the company and its earnings once the coronavirus has passed. Apart from the vaccines mentioned above, at this moment the company does not sell any other products to the public. It has several other products in the testing phase, but their final approval and sales are uncertain. Thus, Moderna's stock may continue to thrive in the coming months thanks to further covid waves. In the long term, however, the company will need more products if it is to prosper.  
Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility?

Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 18.07.2022 07:57
Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility While long-term investors in physical shares are not too interested in volatility, CFD traders can make potentially very nice profits from it. However, equity markets are vast and it can happen that an interesting title slips through one’s fingers. This article will make sure that it doesn't happen. What is volatility and how is it created If you were to equate the words volatility and nervousness (or moodiness) you would not be far off the mark. Indeed, volatility is really a measure of nervousness in the markets and where there is nervousness, there is also uncertainty. Uncertainty in the markets can arise for many different reasons, but it usually happens before the release of important macroeconomic news (on our economic calendar), you can identify those by the three bulls' heads symbols) or during unexpected events with a major impact on a particular market sector or the geopolitical order of the world (natural disasters, wars).   On the charts of trading platforms, you can recognize a highly volatile market by the dynamically changing price of the instrument, the market is said to be going up or down, and if you switch to a candle chart, you may notice large candles. Conversely, non-volatile, calm markets move sideways without any significant dips or rises. Volatility can also be historical or implied, but we'll write about that another time. Now, let’s talk about how can one potentially profit from volatility and where to find suitable markets to do so.   How to potentially profit from volatility For intraday and swing traders, volatility is the key to their potential success. For traders, often the worst situation is the so-called "sideways" market movement, where the asset in question goes "sideways" without significant movements either up or down. With small and larger price fluctuations, traders can potentially generate interesting profits. One of the most volatile markets is the stock market, where some news can trigger very significant price movements. Events such as important economic reports, a stock split, or an acquisition announcement, for example, can move the price of a given stock. In addition, traders using CFDs for share trading can also use leverage to multiply any gains (and losses) in a given volatility.   The key to potential success is choosing the right stock titles. Some stocks and sectors can be considered more volatile, while others can go longer periods of time without significant fluctuations. So how do you look for volatility? Several indicators measure price movements in stocks, perhaps the most well-known is beta, which measures the volatility of a given stock compared to a benchmark stock index (typically the S&P 500 for US stocks). The beta indicator is listed on most well-known stock sites, but we can calculate it using the following formula: Beta = 1 In this case, the stock is highly correlated with the market and we can expect very similar movements to the benchmark index.   Beta < 1 If the beta is less than 1, we can consider the stock to be potentially less volatile than the stock market.   Beta > 1 Stocks with a beta greater than 1 are theoretically more volatile than the benchmark index. So, for example, if a stock's beta is 1.1, we think of it as 10% more volatile. It is stock titles with a beta above 1 that should be of most interest to investors looking to take advantage of volatility. However, it is not enough to monitor the beta alone, traders should not forget to monitor important news and fundamentals related to the company and the market in general. Thus, it is advisable to choose a few companies whose stocks have been significantly volatile in the past and where we expect strong movements due to positive and negative news to continue. So which sectors may be worth following? In which sectors can you potentially benefit from high volatility? Energy sector The energy companies sector has historically been one of the most volatile, as confirmed by the course of 2022 so far. The price development of energy companies is of course strongly linked to the price of energy commodities. These have had a great year - both natural gas and oil have appreciated by several tens of percent since the beginning of the year. However, this growth has not been without significant fluctuations, often by higher units of percent per day. The current geopolitical situation and growing talk of recession promise to continue the volatility in the sector. In the chart below, you can see the movement of Exxon Mobil Corp shares in recent weeks. Chart 1: Exxon Mobil shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages Travel industry Shares of companies related to the travel industry have always been very volatile. According to data from the beginning of the year (NYU Stern), even the companies classified as hotels and casinos were the most volatile when measured by beta. Given the coronavirus pandemic, this is not surprising. However, the threat of coronavirus still persists and there is currently the talk of another wave. However, global demand for travel is once again strong. Airlines and hotels are beginning to recover from the previous two dry years. As a result, both positive and negative news promises potential volatility going forward. In the chart below, you can see the movement of Hilton Hotels Corp shares in recent weeks. Chart 2: Hilton Hotels shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages Technology Technology is a very broad term - some companies in a given sector can be considered "blue chip" stocks, which can generally be less volatile and have the potential to appreciate nicely over time. These include Apple or Microsoft, for example. However, even these will not escape relatively high volatility in 2022. Traders looking for even stronger moves, however, will be more interested in smaller companies such as Uber, Zoom Technologies, Palantir, or PayPal. In the chart below, we can see the evolution of Twitter stock, which has undergone significant volatility in recent weeks. This was linked to the announcement of the acquisition (April gap) and its recent recall by Elon Musk. With both opposing parties facing a court battle, similarly wild news is just more water on the volatility mill. Chart 3: Twitter shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages There are, of course, more sectors that are significantly volatile. Traders can follow companies in the healthcare sector, for example, where coronavirus vaccine companies are among the most interesting ones. Restaurants or aerospace and chemical companies can also be worth looking at. But few things can move stock markets as significantly as the economic cycle. We'll look at the impact of expansion and recession on stocks in our next article.  
On the New York Stock Exchange, The Number Of Securities That Fell In Price Was Bigger Than This Positive One

US Close: Another strong employment report, Wages growth slows, Stocks volatile, Oil rallies, Gold steadies

Ed Moya Ed Moya 06.05.2022 23:33
US stocks appear to be on a permanent rollercoaster ride as investors debate continued signs of a strong economy alongside rising rates, which remains a drag on higher valuation companies. For Wall Street to remain fully confident in piling back into stocks, inflation needs to be showing signs it is easing and that is not happening yet. ​ ​   Market conditions look dangerous but some of these discounts are looking very attractive. ​ It seems that the base case is still that the inflation peak is in place and that the Fed will look to signal a gradual tightening path. Unless inflation shocks prove otherwise, the risk-reward ratios for some of the beloved mega-cap tech stocks are looking attractive. ​ It won’t happen immediately, but when the economy starts to show signs of weakness, that will give investors the green light to buy stocks.   Investors just can’t confidently buy stocks as too much uncertainty persists with what will happen with global growth and how far the Fed will take tightening beyond the summer. ​   NFP The US labor market remains strong as broadbased hiring continues. The economy added 428,000 in April, much more than the analysts estimate of 380,000, also matching the slight downward revision in the prior month. Wage pressures might be showing signs of easing as average hourly earnings ticked lower. ​ Still most signs suggest the labor market is tight and that wage pressures are not quite ready to post a meaningful drop. ​ ​ The labor market remains robust and that should keep the Fed’s half-point tightening on cruise control until the Jackson Hole Symposium.   Oil Crude prices just want to head higher as energy traders completely fixate over the looming European sanctions on Russian oil. ​ No one wants to be on the wrong side of a major crude supply disruption headline, so whatever oil price dips that happen will be short-lived. ​ US oil rig counts continue to rise, but that has not led to increased production. ​ The weekly Baker Hughes report showed oil rig counts rose by 5 to 557 rigs. ​   Gold Gold prices are still licking their wounds following the bond market selloff. ​ Eventually investors will need additional safe-havens, so gold might start to attract some flows if the dollar softens as the global bond market selloff extends. The dollar is slightly softer today, but that doesn’t mean it is ready to lose its crown. ​ Gold could still remain vulnerable to further downward pressure if inflation does not show further signs of peaking next. ​   Gold is trending right between the 50- and -200 day simple moving averages but still looks like it isn’t quite ready to rally. ​ Next week will be pivotal for inflation expectations and for Fed speak that could confirm their commitment to tightening by half a point per meeting until the Jackson Hole Symposium. ​   Read on Oanda This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
The Australian Dollar Might Draw Support From Rising Bets

RBA Interest Rate Decision - The Fight Against Rising Inflation Continues

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.09.2022 09:08
Summary: RBA monetary policy decision. RBA meets market expectations. The RBA Hikes Interest Rates By 50bps - Meeting market expectations The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised interest rates by another 50 basis points, together with indications that the central bank is reaching the conclusion of its tightening cycle, left the Australian Dollar floundering. By raising rates by 50 basis points, the RBA satisfied market expectations and promised additional rate increases in its outlook. However, the RBA acknowledged "higher inflation and higher interest rates are putting pressure on household budgets, with the full effects of higher interest rates yet to be felt in mortgage payments". This is a sign from the Bank that it thinks the time has come to scale back on raising interest rates because the full impact of recent moves has not yet been felt. At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 50 basis points to 2.35 per cent. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 50 basis points to 2.25 per cent - https://t.co/7SpNu8FKJQ — RBA (@RBAInfo) September 6, 2022 RBA Hikes Interest Rates The Reserve Bank of Australia's upcoming interest rate hike may provide some short-term comfort for the Australian dollar. Investors expect the RBA to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points, but the Australian dollar may fluctuate depending on the bank's future direction. The RBA’s decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in its battle against growing inflation; according to the most recent data, prices are rising at a 6.1% annual rate. However, a 50bp is "in the price" of Australian currency rates, thus market volatility will most likely depend on the direction the RBA directs investors to take in terms of future policy decisions. Australia's economy is weakening; according to August PMI data, a fall in services sector activity caused the composite index to enter contractionary territory. "Beyond this month the outlook looks far bumpier. The RBA could therefore be driven to signal a smaller pace of hikes from next month, as a weaker economic backdrop accelerates, delivering what we might describe as a dovish hike," says a daily currency update from Moneycorp. "Given that 50bps is all but priced into markets, the Aussie is likely to be driven on the day by the commentary from the RBA, with the Aussie likely being boosted most by bullish calls, and hindered if the RBA adopts a dovish tone," adds the note. The Australian Dollar is the third-best performing major currency in 2022. Thanks to Australia's substantial trade surplus, which implies that its currency is supported by robust export revenues, the Australian Dollar is the third-best performing major currency in 2022. Sources: poundsterlinglive.com, investing.com
The Agressive Rate Hikes By The Fed Did Not Lead To A Deeper Recession

The US Jobs Report Could Be A Negative Catalyst

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 02.09.2022 13:35
Stock markets in Europe opened positively on Friday after what has been an otherwise rotten week, while Asia was fairly mixed ahead of the US jobs report. It will be interesting to see whether Europe can maintain the rebound today considering we’re heading into the weekend not certain that gas will start flowing through Nord Stream 1 again tomorrow. Grid data suggests it will but until the gas starts actually flowing, it remains a risk. That weekend risk may make investors a little nervous as we progress through the session and could lead to more caution as we approach the close. The US jobs report could also be a negative catalyst later in the session if it’s deemed strong enough to warrant more aggressive tightening from the Fed. We’ve seen a lot more risk aversion in the markets recently as Fed commentary has finally gotten through to investors. We’re still seeing remarkable resilience in the US data, particularly the labour market, even if some cracks are appearing elsewhere. While the NFP and unemployment will naturally attract the most attention initially, it’s the wages that could tip the balance at the central bank, with policymakers concerned about inflation becoming entrenched. Will Japan intervene as the yen hits a 24-year low? The yen has been back in focus in recent days, having fallen to a 24-year low against the dollar on Thursday, breaking above 140 in the process. This level has been speculated a lot about in recent months as being the point at which Japanese officials may be tempted to intervene in the markets and comments overnight could further fuel that, with one spokesperson warning moves are being watched with a high sense of urgency. That doesn’t appear to have happened yet and we’re not likely to see any shift from the Bank of Japan either if recent commentary is anything to go by. While inflation is currently above its target, that’s not expected to last and there’s seemingly little appetite to change course. That could mean further declines in the yen until intervention is deemed necessary, although the threat of such action could slow the decline as we’ve already seen. Treading water ahead of the jobs report Bitcoin has been treading water around $20,000 over the past week, perhaps with one eye on today’s jobs report. This is clearly a major level of support and a significant break of it could see further losses, with $17,500 the next major test being the level it bottomed at in June. Risk appetite in the markets has not been positive recently which has weighed heavily on bitcoin and other risk assets. The jobs report today could compound that if it feeds inflation fears and raises the odds of another 75 basis point Fed hike this month. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
The release of Chinese GDP, Bank of Canada interest rate decision and more - InstaForex talks the following week (part I)

Broad China Selloff Drags Down Alibaba, European Gas Prices Down, Goldman Sachs Aim To Increase Investment In China, Race For Next U.K PM

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.10.2022 13:40
Summary: Alibaba stock tanks on Monday. Warmer weather prospects driving NGAS down. Goldman Sachs has established a new joint venture in China. Rishi Sunak on track to become the next U.K Prime Minister. Markets reacted to President Xi Jinping’s re-election As markets reacted to President Xi Jinping consolidating power following his historic confirmation to a third term as head of the second-largest economy in the world, shares of Chinese corporations were falling on Monday. Alibaba (ticker: BABA) lost 12% in premarket trade in the United States. Investors are spooked by President Xi Jinping's increasing control over China's ruling party as he begins a record-setting third term with no apparent successor. In addition, the 14th edition of the 11.11 Global Shopping Festival ("11.11" or "Festival"), which will feature more than 290,000 brands, was formally launched today by Alibaba Group Holding Limited. ⚠️BREAKING:*ALIBABA STOCK PLUNGES 11% IN HONG KONG AMID BROAD CHINA SELLOFF$BABA 🇨🇳🇭🇰 pic.twitter.com/qd0XErYE4B — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 24, 2022 European gas prices fall as supply prospects improve Following predictions of warmer-than-usual weather for the majority of the continent over the coming week, European natural gas futures fell once again during the opening hours of trading on Monday. Weather predictions that continental Europe will see temperatures this week that are between 4 and 8 degrees Celsius warmer than the seasonal norm, predicting reduced demand and enabling importers to continue injecting excess gas into storage, served as the primary impetus for the decision. ​​In order to relieve the pressure brought on by Russia's effective supply suspension, Europe has been able to fill its storage facilities ahead of schedule thanks to a mild start to the winter heating season and aggressive buying of liquefied natural gas on spot markets. EU storage facilities were 93.4% full as of Sunday, with the two largest markets on the continent, Germany and Italy, posting even higher levels. ⚠️BREAKING:*EUROPEAN GAS PRICES TUMBLE TO LOWEST SINCE JULY ON EASING SUPPLY FEARS 🇪🇺🇪🇺 pic.twitter.com/nGg49xSG1T — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 24, 2022 Goldman Sachs’ new joint venture In an effort to increase investment in Chinese logistics and infrastructure real estate assets, Goldman Sachs has established a joint venture in China with local logistics firm Sunjade, the U.S. bank announced on Monday. According to a company release, the bank is creating the new subsidiary through its investment arm Goldman Sachs Asset Management, which has made more than $50 billion in real estate-related investments worldwide. The stock structure or the amount of money committed to the platform were not disclosed. The joint venture has invested in a 240,000 square meter project with four institutional-grade warehouse assets in Shanghai and the surrounding region. The joint venture focuses on projects in China's first-tier cities and neighboring areas. The new platform, according to the U.S. bank, will profit from China's growing demand for brand-new, high-quality infrastructure assets, particularly institutional-quality storage space driven by e-commerce and the diversification of industrial requirements supported by government policies. Goldman Sachs launches Chinese infrastructure real estate joint venture https://t.co/HdGJm9ExlH pic.twitter.com/mmj53hkACz — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 24, 2022 Rishi Sunak on track to be next U.K PM After Boris Johnson withdrew from the race on Sunday night and the markets breathed a sigh of relief, Rishi Sunak, a former chancellor, was on track to become the new prime minister of Britain on Monday. After the likelihood of further imminent political and economic unrest decreased, the value of the pound increased on Monday. Johnson, who was having trouble gaining support, acknowledged that due to divisions among Tory MPs, even if he had won, he could not have governed "effectively." If Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons and his sole remaining competitor, is unable to secure the necessary 100 nominations from Tory MPs, Sunak will take over as the party's leader at 2 p.m. on Monday. Rishi Sunak’s priority should be to restore stability and the UK’s reputation https://t.co/WLKJCGg49X — Financial Times (@FT) October 24, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com, twitter.com
Interest Rates In Eurozone Will Continue To Increase In The Coming Meetings

Elon Musk Closes Twitter Deal, Apple Reported Record Revenue, ECB May Turn Dovish

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.10.2022 16:32
Summary: Elon Musk has finalized his $44 billion plan to take Twitter private. Record revenue was announced from APPL. Investors have been persuaded that the ECB may make a dovish turn. Elon Musk Closes $44bn twitter deal After months of legal fighting between the richest man in the world and the social media site, Elon Musk, he has finalized his $44 billion plan to take Twitter private, putting an end to one of the most high-profile and dramatic buyout sagas in recent memory. The billionaire businessman removed Twitter's chief executive, Parag Agrawal, and chief financial officer, Ned Segal, as soon as he assumed control on Thursday night. According to one source, Sean Edgett, Twitter's general counsel, and Vijaya Gadde, the company's head of law, policy, and safety, were also fired. Musk had first agreed to purchase Twitter for $54.20 per share in April. A few months later, he filed a lawsuit against the San Francisco-based business to cancel the agreement, claiming that the platform had misled investors and regulators about false accounts and cyber security. In an effort to pressure the billionaire to complete the transaction, the social media business retaliated and countersued, setting up a contentious court dispute and discovery process. Musk declared he was prepared to purchase the business at the agreed-upon price provided the legal action was withdrawn just weeks before the two were scheduled to square off in a Delaware court over the matter. The sale was finalized the day before, according to a regulatory filing from the New York Stock Exchange on Friday morning, and stock trading had been halted in anticipation of Twitter's delisting on November 8. In an effort to create a "super app" that combines messaging, payments, and commerce, Musk has pledged to reduce Twitter's workforce and operating expenses while fostering product innovation. Elon Musk has completed his $44 billion deal for Twitter. The company's CEO and CFO were terminated and escorted out of headquarters https://t.co/nsktVzuCtn pic.twitter.com/SBWTIzqPnx — Reuters (@Reuters) October 28, 2022 Apple (APPL) reports record earnings On Thursday, Apple (AAPL) released financial results for the fourth quarter of its fiscal year. Record revenue was announced, but important categories including the iPhone and services fell short of analyst projections. Actual revenue was $90.15 billion compared to the estimated $88.64 billion, and EPS came in at $1.29 vs the anticipated $1.26. Although the Mac sales and revenue beats are positive, the iPhone and iPad numbers may worry investors. Apple has recently taken a beating amid rumors that the company is reducing the manufacturing of the Phone 14 Plus and as it navigates a challenging week for tech in general. Like most tech companies, Apple is experiencing foreign exchange challenges brought on by a strong dollar, which is reducing overall income. A hawkish Fed, persistent inflation, and a consumer downturn that has lowered expectations for the forthcoming holiday season are all exerting pressure on tech businesses like Apple. $AAPL shares remain steady after reporting record Q4 revenue.“The Apple results were mixed, they were relatively strong enough,” @juleshyman says. “But not enough to salvage the whole tech earnings season and reassure investors.” pic.twitter.com/92fYGKeYYT — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) October 28, 2022 ECB could be turning more Dovish Investors have been persuaded that the European Central Bank is about to make a dovish turn because of what appear to be merely minor changes in tone from Christine Lagarde and the governing council she chairs. In a post-council meeting press conference, the ECB president acknowledged that the eurozone was likely headed for a recession, which had long been assumed by the majority of economists. The markets quickly interpreted this to mean that the region's rate-setters would scale back the pace of rate increases. Following Lagarde's news conference on Thursday afternoon, interest rates on government borrowing plunged, and by day's end, the euro had fallen below parity with the dollar, wiping off some of its previous gains. Investors broadly perceived such e statements as indicating that the ECB will decrease its next rate increase to 0.5 percentage points, and they now believe that by next September, borrowing prices will be a quarter-point lower than they believed prior to the ECB's announcement of its policy. ECB convinces markets it is about to turn more dovish https://t.co/rCLmZ0WPD0 — Financial Times (@FT) October 28, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, twitter.com, ft.com
There Will Probably A Rally Today And For The Remaining Two Weeks Until The End Of The Year

Meta lays off around 13% of its employees, a major shift in the markets in the wake of US midterm elections is not expected

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.11.2022 16:22
Summary: In the most drastic layoff in company history, Meta has fired almost 11,000 workers. No major market shifts are expected in the wake of US midterm elections. Germany should think about raising taxes on the wealthiest citizens. Meta implemented its most drastic layoff in its history In the most drastic layoff in company history, Meta has fired almost 11,000 workers, cutting its employment by around 13% as it fights declining revenue and escalating competition. Employees were notified of the layoffs through email on Wednesday morning by CEO Mark Zuckerberg. “I want to take accountability for these decisions and for how we got here. I know this is tough for everyone, and I’m especially sorry to those impacted,” he added. Current economic climate weighing on tech companies In a climate of economic slump and greater competition, Zuckerberg claimed that revenue growth experienced during the epidemic had not been sustained, advertising performance was down, and e-commerce had decreased. There is no cap on the 16 weeks of basic salary and two additional weeks of compensation that US employees will receive as part of their severance package. The email also stated that overseas employees' packages would be comparable and would be announced soon. Except for email, affected employees' access to Meta systems will be terminated on Wednesday "so everyone can say farewell," according to Zuckerberg. On Wednesday, Meta stock increased 3% in pre-market trading. Reducing budgets and personnel benefits are two further cost-saving strategies, it was said. The company's "real estate footprint" will "shrink," presumably resulting in the closure of a few offices. The majority of the remote-working staff will be asked to desk share. In the upcoming months, more improvements, according to Zuckerberg, will be disclosed. *META IS LAYING OFF 11,000 EMPLOYEES, ABOUT 13% OF THEIR WORKFORCE$META pic.twitter.com/Ego722RjCR — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 9, 2022 US midterm elections are not expected to shift the markets majorly Wall Street experts predict that the markets won't experience a significant shift after the much anticipated completion of the midterm elections. A bullish tilt in the market is justified, according to historical evidence, in the month before the midterm elections. According to data from US Bank, the S&P 500 has historically outpaced the market in the twelve months following a midterm election, returning an average of 16.3%. Particularly for the one and three months following midterm elections, this outperformance is present. However, investing experts may be right to be ready for a post-election hangover in the stock market given that the economy is still coping with high levels of inflation and an unfriendly Federal Reserve rising interest rates. "You've got to think about some of these big challenges that we have," Roland explained. "The economy is clearly decelerating right now. We're contending with inflation. I think the inflation data that we get on Thursday is probably much more important than the political backdrop right now. So we want to be careful about sort of overplaying politics and making cross-asset decisions right now." Why the stock market may see minimal impact from the midterm elections https://t.co/hK6PJvE86V by @BrianSozzi $DJI $GSPC $IXIC — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 9, 2022 Germany suggested to raise taxes on wealthy citizens As part of its €200 billion plan to restrict gas and electricity prices, Germany should think about raising taxes on the wealthiest citizens, a committee of top economic advisers to the government said on Wednesday. One of the five members of Germany's council of economic experts, Ulrike Malmendier, stated that the nation should "look at the more uncomfortable side" of how to finance its energy assistance program because it cannot simply benefit the most vulnerable. She stated that the council had proposed three solutions to this problem, including hiking the top tax rate, enacting a "solidarity fee" on high earnings, or delaying the government's plan to lower tax rates to protect households from skyrocketing inflation. The council's suggestions on tax policy are likely to spark a heated discussion inside the ruling coalition, which has eight weeks to issue a formal response. Germany should raise taxes on rich to fund €200bn energy plan, advisers say https://t.co/aMx9wS0EEP — Financial Times (@FT) November 9, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com, twitter.com
Dollar (USD) Waits For The Jackson Hole Symposium Results. Nvidia With Good Earnings

Failure of investors to ask enough questions, Europe's energy price cap struggles, China’s covid dilemma.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.11.2022 09:37
Summary: A broad failure of investors asking questions before investing in start-ups has been exposed this past month. The EU has worked to quickly reduce its reliance on Russian fossil fuels. This week, rallies against Beijing's "zero-Covid" policy took place. Investors failure to ask questions weighing on the investment industry’s reputation The professional investment industry's reputation has had a terrible month. The demise of FTX exposed the fact that a cryptocurrency exchange with fewer financial controls than Enron had been receiving investments from everyone, from edgy hedge funds to conservative pension and sovereign wealth funds. For Theranos, a fraudulent blood-testing business that duped media magnate Rupert Murdoch and Oracle founder Larry Ellison, Elizabeth Holmes was given an 11-year prison term. Shares of IT companies that went public in the 2020–21 Spac craze are down significantly, and many crypto firms are in peril. Despite claiming to be "supported by the greatest," including SoFi, Tiger Global, and Peter Thiel, BlockFi filed for bankruptcy on Monday. Veteran Silicon Valley dealmakers claim that when venture investors stopped attempting to identify and support the most intelligent entrepreneurs and instead began doling out cash, standards have slowly eroded. The VC model has always assumed that the majority of start-up businesses fail, but that investors are made up for their losses by investing in advance of a few significant winners. However, this strategy has evolved from early investment rounds involving a few million dollars to massive agreements involving billions due to decades of easy money and a lack of respectable yields from safer alternatives. Doesn’t anyone do due diligence any more? https://t.co/hIiUn78Qbn — Financial Times (@FT) November 30, 2022 Europe’s energy price cap struggles Since the start of the crisis in Ukraine, the EU has worked to quickly reduce its reliance on Russian fossil fuels while keeping costs under control, but the outcomes of these efforts have been rather uneven. More swiftly than many officials and analysts had anticipated, the bloc has been able to reduce its reliance on Russian oil and gas, but efforts to address the region's skyrocketing energy costs have resulted in bitter disagreements in the EU's capitals. Critics who claimed that a cap on month-ahead wholesale gas of €275 per megawatt hour, as proposed by Brussels last week, would not have addressed this summer's price increase called the idea a "laugh." RePowerEU, a €210 billion plan presented by the EU in May, aims to boost domestic fossil fuel production while accelerating the deployment of renewable energy sources. After energy ministers agreed to a voluntary goal to cut consumption by 15% across the bloc in July, there has also been success in reducing gas demand. Previously, about 40% of the EU's supply came from Russian pipelines; today, that percentage is less than 8%. EU members have started to replace the 155 bcm of Russian pipeline gas each year. Price cap problems: Europe struggles to form a wartime energy policy https://t.co/3oGhcZTgwH — Financial Times (@FT) November 30, 2022 China’s covid predicament China is in a situation that is essentially hopeless. This week, rallies against Beijing's "zero-Covid" policy took place in numerous places around the nation, revealing a level of public rage not seen since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. However, relaxing China's Covid regulations and possibly igniting a "exit wave" of infections might result in the wintertime deaths of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of senior individuals. The harm that this situation is doing to China's reputation as a whole as well as its president, Xi Jinping, is real. Despite the skilled efforts of Chinese censors to artistically remove crowd scenes from World Cup coverage, TV images of maskless crowds watching the World Cup in Qatar only serve to reinforce the perception that Beijing has been slow to end the pandemic. The danger to many of China's elderly citizens' lives is only one aspect of the emergency that the country is facing. The recent Covid infection wave could spiral out of control, overwhelming an already overburdened public health system with its sheer number of cases. If this occurs, public resentment of Xi's regime may increase even more. Beijing must understand that the protesters on the streets are expressing justifiable complaints. China’s dire Covid predicament https://t.co/42QIWiWS97 | opinion — Financial Times (@FT) November 29, 2022 Sources: ft.com, twitter.com
Microsoft earnings: The world's largest software maker reports FY23 Q2 earnings (ending 31 December) tomorrow after the market close with analysts expecting revenue growth slowing to 2.3% y/y

US Stocks: Amazon (AMZN) and Salesforce (CRM) lay off employees

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 05.01.2023 20:00
It’s been a mixed day of trade in Europe and the US is poised to open marginally lower as traders take a step back following a lively start to the year. The Fed minutes may have put a slight dampener on things although I’m not entirely sure. The narrative from the central bank is very much in line with what we should expect. Policymakers are desperately trying to convince markets how serious they are about defeating inflation, to the point that investors are seemingly paying less attention. I can understand the Fed’s caution given the erratic nature of the data and its own credibility issue having turned up casually late to the party. The risk now is that it overcompensates during the exit from tightening and pushes the economy into a deeper downturn than necessary. This is why we may well see it maintain the hawkish position in the near term but ultimately not follow through and instead quickly pivot, perhaps later in the quarter. That will all depend on the data and the jobs report last month was not what the central bank wanted to see. It will be hoping for something more modest on Friday, with a particular focus falling on wages which surprised substantially to the upside in November. The ADP report wasn’t a promising precursor but then, it’s rarely a reliable one either. Amazon and Salesforce continue tech layoffs Tech firms have often been the outlier in markets in recent years and now they are for all the wrong reasons. While most companies have been reluctant to lay off staff, having been burned in the aftermath of the pandemic by a surprisingly tight labour market, tech firms have been quick to pull the trigger and in emphatic fashion. There is no crystal ball that the firms’ bosses have access to that others have not; rather it’s a reflection of the intense hiring spree they went on in recent years as business boomed and stock prices soared. The economic cycle has turned rapidly, leaving those companies over-staffed and while that would ideally not result in mass lay-offs, it was always likely to. While other sectors may also gradually start laying off staff in response to the economic downturn, I don’t expect it will be on the same scale, not unless the outlook worsens considerably. Pre-data nerves? Bitcoin isn’t offering much in terms of excitement today, down marginally and with a relatively tight trading range. Whether that’s a little pre-jobs report apprehension or something more defensive amid a welcome quiet period for crypto isn’t clear but we’ll find out soon enough. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Tech leading the way - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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