silver price

The supply crunch might stretch as much as a seven-year event from now, but the spring is loaded already. It isn’t only a supply, demand scenario when talking about silver. Little accounted for is any surprise, and in our opinion, the slightest cough could set this spring off. The sum of fundamental facts is overwhelming on how the next large turning point could set silver  into stellar motion. With this many accelerators, it makes this an incredible risk/reward-ratio play. Silver, the loaded spring. Here are a few facts that we do not see accounted for in price and as that find to be accelerators for the next monthly time frame leg up: increase in demand for physical silver purchase during the previous eighteen months eleven trillion dollars pumped into the economy over the last eighteen months (inflation) electricity prices rising = demand for solar panels increasing (which contain silver) supply logistic constraints all over the world make large shipments of raw materials stuck in various ports (including silver) Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, signs of life: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of October 22nd, 2021. With the already present shortages of blanks for minting coins and a driver shortage for armored cars, why is silver trading at these low numbers? There is plenty of evidence that once demand for silver increases further, a short squeeze might be triggered. Consequently, silver prices might soar beyond typical trend steepness. On the daily chart above, signs of life are already evident. The trend-down channel since June this year has recently been broken to the upside. The first indication of a reversal. We have a keen eye on the price levels near the green dotted horizontal lines for possible low-risk long entries. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, on the verge: We have warned numerous times that the two most detrimental factors to market losses are intuition and emotions. Intuition, while one of the most resourceful problem solvers, is worthless in the counterintuitive market environment. Emotions provide for a clouded perception of actual market behavior and a tendency to overwrite one’s rules and cause sabotage to disciplined behavior necessary for execution within one’s market play. Emotions aren’t only fear and greed, or chasing trades and running stops. Over the last forty years, we were less worried about inflation. As a result, we might be a bit  complacent now to validate early warning signals. Procrastination might be a consequence. Be advised that acquisition of physical purchase requires availability and even more knowledge. What to buy? Where to buy it? The spring is loaded. There is no room for research once it’s sprung. Prepare your actions in detail. Make a sample purchase for confidence and experience if you haven’t done so already. It is education that supports all subsequent steps and possible surprises to endure. Knowledge will give you the edge over the average citizen. Spot price analysis is helpful as well to keep calm and prepared. The weekly chart above shows a pat situation. Bulls celebrated above the mean (blue line). Fourteen weeks ago, the directional green trend line was violated by price. Bears pushed since then prices to lower levels. Right now, we are right on the verge of price trading near the red resistance downtrend line. This makes not for a low-risk entry zone on this time frame but should price close above this line, it would indicate a possible long trend continuation. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, bullish engulfing pattern: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 22nd, 2021. It seems the crowd is complacent about all monthly bills and especially food prices going through the roof. Many billionaires, including Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor-Jones, Bill Ackman and Warren Buffett, have stated that Americans aren’t paying enough attention to the fact that we will face consequences of the eleven trillion dollars pumped into the economy over the last eighteen months. The monthly chart reflects these market uncertainties to a certain degree. Silver prices have seen a substantial move up. Even though trading within a sideways range for over a year now, October is exceptionally strong so far. Representing a bullish engulfing pattern from a Japanese candlestick perspective, the majority of sellers in September got stopped out or are underwater. Should prices close above US$ 24 for this month, we would be very bullish on silver. We have already taken nine trades on small timeframes this month, of which seven were successful winning trades. Our quad exit strategy allows the remaining partial positions (the last 25% which we call “runner”) to be exposed at no risk within the markets. All these trades are posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Silver, the loaded spring: There seems to be much confusion regarding the math on silver demand in the news. Boiling it down to a simple equation, we are mining an average of about 800 to 850 million ounces a year. In opposition to this mine supply, industrial demand is about 600 million ounces. With a speculated growth to about a billion ounces of industrial demand, it isn’t so challenging to feel safe on a long-term bet holding physical silver. And we are only talking about one sector of silver demand here… The real kicker will be the investment demand. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

The average investor is news-driven. As much as the Federals Reserve  (the Fed) might be criticized, this large investor group is not commonly doubting news. In other words, it has generally believed the Fed’s narrative that inflation is transitory. The bad news is rarely released shortly before Christmas. However, it would not surprise if tapering started in early 2022. And maybe not just begin but be more aggressive throughout the year as expected. With this, the narrative will change from a “we are not worried, it is transitory” to a “we need to deal with” regarding inflation. Therefore, this could easily be the fire to the fuse of the Silver rocket. We now see early signs of such a lift-off in price in recent silver price movements. Silver’s fuse is about to be lit. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, low-risk entry points: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of October 30th, 2021. It isn’t only that the overall narrative on transitory inflation is starting to get holes. We like the silver play, for instance because gold is somewhat in the limelight in battle with bitcoin. Consequently, allowing for silver to shine while it is typically in the shadow. On top of it all, we find clear evidence that commodities with industrial use are likely in a long term bull market. This is a play where everything is coming together. A multi stream both in fundamental and technical edges stack upon each other. As of right now, we have identified four low-risk entry points on the daily silver chart, which are marked in bright green horizontal lines. We would take off 50% of the position near the US$26 mark to mitigate risk (see our quad exit strategy). Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, good risk reward ratio: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 30th, 2021. The weekly chart offers a low-risk opportunity as well. We illustrated above a play that assumes an entry point in the lower third quadrant of the yellow marked sideways zone. It would provide for a risk/reward-ratio between 1:1 and 1:2 towards the financing point. As well we assume an exit of half of the position at the top near US$28 of the yellow sideways channel (see our quad exit strategy). With two more exits of each 25% of total trade equity at targets US$34.83 and US$48.72, we find the weekly play to be conducive to our low-risk policy.  Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, favorable probabilities: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 30th, 2021. With its most considerable weight, the monthly chart provides the necessary overview. It shows how likely a success rate to a long-term play outcome is. We find three dominant aspects supporting our aim for a bullish long-term play. Trend: The linear regression channel is marked in diagonal lines (red, blue, green). It shows a clearly bullish trend with a high likelihood of continuation. Support: The Ichimoku cloud analysis provides solid evidence of support to the recently established bullish tone in silver. Probabilities: Price highs from 1980 to 2011 built a double top price formation. As a result, it prevented prices from getting higher than the price zone marked with a white box. The third attempt of price reaching this price zone nevertheless has a much higher statistical probability of penetrating this distribution zone and allowing the price to go higher. Silver’s fuse is about to be lit: We find ourselves in challenging times. Certainly, not only in market play. One of the essential pillars to come out ahead is bending in the wind and staying flexible. Should the FED indeed raise interest rates to a degree non-reflected in the anticipated market price of speculators and come as a surprise, we might see a stock market decline next year of a substantial percentage. Consequently, this would temporarily drag silver prices down as well. We share methods in our free Telegram channel to build low-risk positions within the market that reduce risk through partial profit-taking. Our quad exit strategy allows us to hedge physical acquisitions by trading around these positions on smaller time frames in the silver paper market. Our approach provides a way to maneuver through a delicate environment to hedge against inflation and preserve wealth. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

Bitcoin is volatile and nosedives in some of these attacks. A historical look back illustrates how bitcoin each time is climbing higher right after: 2009 traded for free (zero value) between enthusiasts 2010 worth US$0.08 2011 from US$1 up to US$32 back down to US$2 2012 from US$4.80 up to US$13.20 2013 from US$13.40 up to US$1,156 and down to US$760 2014 – 2016 down to US$315 2017 up to US$20,089 2018 down to US$3,122 2019 up to US$13,880 2020 up to US$34,800 2021 up to US$67,016 And these last three years, bitcoin has been climbing higher, undeterred. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, bitcoin, a true winner: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The monthly chart above illustrates bitcoin’s winning characteristics. We can see harmonious swings. Retracements are substantial, but bitcoin shows a persistent tendency to outperform previous all-time highs. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, explosive recent history: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The weekly chart points towards more explosive moves recently. After a breakout of a multi-year range, we can see that bitcoin has started to move substantially due to more widespread adoption. Swing behavior is getting more harmonious. At the moment, we are in the midst of a battle between bears and bulls at a double top formation. Consequently, the following days to weeks will show who will come out ahead. The fact that bulls cling to their winnings for this long gives price in this pat situation a slight edge for the bullish corner.   BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, stepping away from the noise: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Daily chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The daily chart can be pretty volatile. These smaller time frames are advised only to be traded if you are a professional. This applies particularly to struggle zones like the one we are currently in, for instance. Intraday swings can get substantial. In addition, once these battles between bears and bulls resolve, daily percentage moves can be staggering. Luckily, one doesn’t need to fear such challenging trading environments. To clarify, step up to larger time frames and reduce trade frequency and position size. Accept the risk based on adequate position size to your individual psychology and risk appetite. Consequently, buying for the long term will become much easier. It is essential as such to be familiar with a trading object’s typical behavior and, in bitcoins case, not to forget its ability to shine after a major setback. Bitcoin is climbing undeterred higher: Overall, bitcoins’ technical personality makes it an easy choice for one’s wealth preservation portfolio. Especially when options for wealth preservation investments are limited! This year’s strength towards gold and silver price performance had us increase bitcoins percentage allocation within the long-term portfolio. It fulfills two valuable functions to firmly find its place under historically much longer established counterparts. Scarcity for stability, and a more considerable performance potential necessary to protect against inflation. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

Let’s face it, the metals are not having an easy time breaking out. Short-term rallies end up going nowhere and bearish signs are still in abundance. Yesterday’s session was once again quite informative, and so is today’s pre-market trading. In yesterday’s analysis, I emphasized the importance of the relative weakness that we just saw in mining stocks, so let’s start with taking a look at what mining stocks did yesterday. At first glance, yesterday’s performance might look like a bullish reversal, but zooming in clarifies that something else was actually in the works. Let’s take a look at the GDXJ 1-hour candlestick chart for details. Yesterday’s “reversal” was actually a breakdown below the previous (mid-October) intraday lows along with the verification thereof. The GDXJ moved below the above-mentioned lows and – while it moved back up – it ended the session below them. This is a bearish type of session. Also, if you were wondering about the high volume in the final hour of trading – that’s relatively normal as that’s when bigger trades tend to take place. And while mining stocks were busy verifying the breakdown, gold tried to break above its declining, red resistance line, and verify that breakout. While yesterday’s session didn’t bring much lower gold prices (and the invalidation), today’s pre-market trading makes it clear that the attempt to break higher failed. Just like I had indicated yesterday. This time the rising short-term support line is not there to prevent further declines as the breakdown below it was also confirmed. What does it mean? It means that gold is likely to fall, and quite likely it’s going to fall hard. Besides, silver price is after a major short-term breakdown, too. After a powerful short-term rally, silver had reversed, and now it broke below its rising support line. That’s yet another bearish indication. Please note that at first silver was reluctant to decline while mining stocks moved decisively lower, which was normal during the early part of a given decline. Silver did some catching-up action yesterday, but since miners are not showing strength, I’d say that we’re getting to the regular part of a short-term move, not close to its end. And the move lower is likely to continue, just as the move higher is likely to continue in case of the USD Index. The USDX is after a verification of the breakout to new 2021 highs and after an about monthly consolidation above them. This is a perfect starting point for a major upswing, and we’re likely to see one soon. All in all, while the outlook for the precious metals sector is very bullish for the following years, it’s very bearish for the following weeks. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Do small upswings really matter if one has medium-term goals in mind? Have the bulls come home?  The medium-term back and forth movement in gold continues. If I could make the markets move in a certain direction sooner, and end the prolonged consolidation, I would. However, I can’t, and the only thing that I can do is to report to you what I see on the markets and describe what my course of action will be. During yesterday’s session we saw more of what we’ve been seeing in the previous days. Gold moved higher, and gold stocks moved higher (but in a weak manner), and even though gold moved to new monthly highs, the HUI Index is not even back to its late-October highs. It’s boring, discouraging, and demotivating. But the only thing that we can do is to react to what the market is willing to provide us with. What do yesterday’s and today’s pre-market price moves tell us? First of all, the market tells us that the breakout to new highs in the USD Index is not being invalidated. I know that I’ve written this tens of times, but this factor remains intact and it continues to have very important implications going forward. These are bullish for the USD Index and bearish for the precious metals sector. Second, as I had already written earlier today, gold stocks are not showing strength relative to gold. The gold price just made new monthly highs and is now visibly above its October highs, but the silver price and – most importantly - gold stocks are not. In fact, they are just a little above their mid-October highs. Consequently, the thing that one tends to see in the final parts of a short-term rally remains in place. So, when will the decline in PMs finally continue? Based on what I wrote on Monday – in particular about gold’s reversal points, it’s likely to start soon – perhaps as early as this week. As a quick reminder, you can see gold’s triangle-vertex-based reversal on the chart below: And you can see gold’s long-term cyclical turning point on the chart below: The fact that gold moved to its recent medium-term highs is also a factor here. Resistance provided by those highs is quite likely to trigger a reversal in gold, and based on today’s pre-market action, it’s what we might already be seeing right now. The move lower is small so far, but all bigger moves have small beginnings, and given the reversal points and the resistance that gold just encountered, this could be “it”. Also, speaking of resistance levels, on today’s second chart I placed a red resistance line based on the previous highs. It might be tempting to view the price action below it as an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which could have bullish implications. However, let’s keep in mind that without a breakout above the neck level (approximately the previous highs), the formation is not yet complete, and as such it has NO bullish implications whatsoever, as it simply doesn’t exist yet. All in all, the outlook for the precious metals market is not bullish, even though the last several days / weeks might make one feel otherwise. Before viewing the recent move higher as something significant and/or bullish, please consider how tiny this upswing is compared to the decline in gold stocks between May and October. No market moves in a straight line, and periodic corrections are inevitable. It doesn’t make them a start of a new powerful upswing in each case, though. And if the part of the precious metals market that is supposed to rally the most at the start of a major upswing is so weak right now, then why should one expect the current upswing to be anything more than a corrective upswing within a bigger downtrend? Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Luckily, it is not necessary to time market entry and exit precisely. What is essential is calculating risk itself and that risk to expected returns. In addition, strict management of the trade itself is required. Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, risk versus reward: Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 12th, 2021. That being said, instead of getting distracted by a narrative of policymakers who might prolong the inevitable even for years possibly, we focus on the technical aspects that cannot be “rationalized” away and will be unaffected by market influencers. One such fact is the market relationship between silver’s more giant brother gold. The chart above tries to illustrate that gold is trading 10% below its all-time high. On the other hand, silver is trading 50% below its all-time high. This discrepancy makes silver the more desirable play (better risk/reward-ratio). The difference will work like a loaded spring, and once released, silver will outperform gold by a multiple. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, gold leading strongly: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. Now that we have found the right vehicle for a wealth preservation insurance play, we are looking for additional factors. Physical acquisition is a clear prosperous choice. It protects against inflation and the risk possibilities inherent to fiat currency, with much historical evidence. That leaves us the question of entry timing. Especially since the physical purchase has a broader spread and a reactionary lag over spot price trading, which is pretty much instant. The chart above clarifies why we see there to be leeway regarding being “right.” It is less critical to pinpoint the absolute lows versus overall participation. Especially since a lack of physical silver availability, which is a possibility, would erase the whole play. The monthly gold chart above is a strong indication that precious metals might be breaking to the upside. With this month’s strength, price pushing against the upper resistance line (white line) of a bullish triangle, silver prices mutually trailing higher is likely. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, closely following gold: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. With these necessary positive edges in play, we can now look at silver itself and look for possible low-risk entry points.The monthly chart shows mutual strength over the previous gold chart. Silver has pushed successfully through the problematic distribution zone around the US$24 price level. It still faces POC (point of control), the highest volume node of our fractal analysis, looming above US$26.03. With this many edges in our favor, we find this an excellent spot to add to physical silver holdings from a long-term holding perspective. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, spot price play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 13th, 2021. For a spot price play in the midterm time horizon, we are instead waiting for a possible price bounce of POC. A low-risk entry would be granted once the price retraces back into the US$24 to US$24.50 zone. Reyna Silver encounters multiple high-grade sulphide zones within 54.9 metres of near-source style skarn at Guigui: Silver, the waiting game: In market movement, we see expansion and compression, much like an oscillator. At certain times though, may it be a natural or man-made disaster, we can find ourselves in a stretched or amplified move. These times of abnormality from a time perspective require being well-prepared. Swift, disciplined actions following a clear planned roadmap are advised. An anticipated roadmap strictly followed. It is first a waiting game followed by quick action, both psychologically challenging environments. With physical acquisitions of metals, perfectionism in timing is paralysis. Not necessary to come out ahead. We find silver accumulation at this time to be a prudent measure to protect your wealth. Like buying insurance against an anticipated market turn. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

Infatuated with gold? Many people are, but love affairs with commodities (or stocks) are dangerous. They’ll steal your heart, then dump you.Our critics often forget that we’re focusing on the medium-term outlook in precious metals, not intraday price moves. They’ll say “Look, gold moved up today. You were wrong Radomski.” That’s nice, but where will it be one or two months from now?While gold, silver, and mining stocks’ optimism resurfaced with a vengeance last week, the trio have broken plenty of hearts since peaking in August 2020. Thus, will the current rallies end in marriage or be another mirage?To begin, while the HUI Index/gold ratio invalidated the breakdown below its rising support line, a similar development occurred in 2013 and the downtrend still resumed.On top of that, I marked (with the shaded red boxes below) just how similar the current price action is to 2013. And back then, after a sharp decline was followed by a small corrective upswing before the plunge, the ratio’s current behavior mirrors its historical counterpart. Furthermore, the end of the corrective upswing in 2013 occurred right before the gold price sunk to its previous lows (marked with red vertical dashed lines in the middle of the chart below). Thus, the ratio is already sending ominous warnings about the PMs’ future path.Even more revealing, the ratio is dangerously close to its 200-day moving average. And when a similar development occurred in 2013 – with the ratio rising slightly above its 200-day moving average (marked with the red vertical dashed line below) – a sharp reversal occurred, mining stocks materially underperformed, and the ratio plunged.Please see below:Likewise, while the GDX ETF rallied again last week, I warned previously that a corrective upswing to $35 was a possibility (the senior miners reached this level intraday on Nov. 12). However, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling overbought conditions, the air should come out of the balloon sooner rather than later.Please see below:To explain, the GDX ETF rallied on huge volume on Nov. 11 and there were only 4 cases in the recent past when we saw something like that after a visible short-term rally.In EACH of those 4 cases, GDX was after a sharp daily rally.In EACH of those 4 cases, GDX-based RSI indicator (upper part of the chart above) was trading close to 70.The rallies that immediately preceded these 4 cases:The July 27, 2020 session was immediately preceded by a 29-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 42% higher. It was 7 trading days before the final top (about 24% of time).The November 5, 2020 session was immediately preceded by a 5- trading -day rally that took the GDX about 14%-15% higher (the high-volume day / the top). It was 1 trading day before the final top (20% of time).The January 4, 2021 session was immediately preceded by a 26-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 17%-18% higher (the high-volume day / the top). It was 1 trading day before the final top (about 4% of time).The May 17, 2021 session was immediately preceded by a 52-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 30% higher. It was 7 trading days before the final top (about 13% of time).So, as you can see, these sessions have even more in common than it seemed at first sight. The sessions formed soon before the final tops (4% - 24% of time of the preceding rally before the final top), but the prices didn’t move much higher compared to how much they had already rallied before the high-volume sessions.Consequently, since the history tends to rhyme, we can expect the GDX ETF to move a bit higher here, but not significantly so, and we can expect this extra move higher to take between an additional 0 and 7 trading days (based on the Nov. 12 session, so as of Nov. 15 it’s between 0 and 6 trading days).Why 0 – 6 trading days (as of today – Nov. 15)? Because with the 4% timeline now in the rearview, the latter represents the updated 24% timeline based on the preceding rally (that took 30 trading days).Since it’s unlikely to take the mining stocks much higher, and the reversal could take place as soon as today (also in gold and silver price), I don’t think that making adjustments to the current short positions in the mining stocks is justified from the risk to reward point of view.Is there a meaningful resistance level that would be likely to trigger a decline in mining stocks? Yes! The GDX ETF is just below its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the August 2020 – September 2021 decline. The resistance is slightly above $35, so that’s when the final top could form.As for the GDXJ ETF, the gold junior miners have already hit their 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (potential resistance) and the top may be upon us. Moreover, when the GDXJ ETF’s RSI increased above (or near) 70 in mid-2020 and in mid-2021, sharp drawdowns followed.As a result, those historical readings provided us with great shorting opportunities.In conclusion, investors have fallen in love with gold, silver, and mining stocks once again. However, when it comes time for matrimony, the precious metals often leave investors at the altar. As a result, while we remain bullish on gold, silver, and mining stocks’ long-term prospects, timing is important. And while the recent upswings may seem like the beginning of a new bull market, several reliable indicators beg to differ. Thus, caution is warranted, and new lows will likely materialize over the medium term.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, strong along gold: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart illustrates price behavior over the last 15 months. Silver prices are trading near the center of the sideways range. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, rumors shrugged off: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart of gold isn’t much different from where prices stand. In short, there is no evidence that gold has lost its luster. Otherwise, we would see silver trading in a relationship much lower. Rumors are just that – rumors! Silver is shrugging them off. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, room to go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of November 20th, 2021. A historical review with a quarterly chart over the last eighteen years reveals that silver prices can sustain extreme extensions from the mean (yellow line) for extended periods. Using the extreme of the second quarter in 2011 as a projective measurement (orange vertical line) for an upcoming target would provide for a price target more than 10% above all-time highs at US$56. In addition, the chart shows that we find ourselves in a strong quarter so far, which is in alignment with cyclical probabilities. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, prepping the play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. Trade setup Let us return to the weekly time frame for a possible low-risk entry scenario with this target in mind.We find a supply zone based on fractal transactional volume analysis near the price of US$24.11 and US$22.65. Both attractive entry zones for excellent risk/reward-ratio plays.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver, shrugging off attacks: It will not be rumors, doubts, and speculations that will be the catalyst for silvers’ success or failure. It isn’t a question of “if,” but just a question of “when” we will see the next massive price advance in this precious metal. The odds are stacked too much in favor of a continued price movement up that the long-term investor should let doubts allow for diverging from a splendid opportunity to partake in wealth preservation and a very profitable way to participate in a chance rarely presented this prominent. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 20th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold bullish, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, favorable timing: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. Timing for a physical acquisition is in alignment as well. The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22. The white line assumes a potential price projection for 2022. Even if we are wrong with our assessment, a gift of silver for a long-term horizon is highly likely to appreciate from momentary levels to a much higher price target. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver on Christmas gift list: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The value of a gift like this doesn’t stop there. Numismatics provides for children and teenagers a way to study history. Beautiful coins and bars inspire us to hold on to value for future times and encourage saving. The weekly silver chart shows in a bit more detail possible price expansion from a time perspective. This would be our most conservative picture of the future. The green bordered box is an entry zone for a potential reversal to the upside. With a high likelihood of an interest rate change by the Federal Reserve Bank in the second quarter of 2022, the inner yellow curve supersedes in probability for the expected time frame for a price increase. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, physical only, spot to risky: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of November 26th, 2021. If you look at the daily chart above, you will find that we have seen a swift downward move in the past. Under our beauty principle, there is a good likelihood that this might occur again. If so, reaction times are much longer with a physical purchase than with spot price trading. Meaning there is no need to precision trade (precision purchase) physical silver, but be not spooked if a swift, extended decline might happen. Consequently, we are pointing this purchase out for physical acquisition only but do not advise taking a spot price position based on the risk.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver on Christmas gift list: In this bargain hunting season around Black Friday, we find it is especially sensible to refocus and ask different questions. The human psyche is prone to give in to instant gratification, especially after the hard time the last two years provided. But with this much at stake for 2022, possibly being a year that sets a mark in history, it might be more prudent to look for wealth preservation in a longer time horizon to invest one’s fiat currencies rather than short-lived pleasures. After all, a careful look for generations to come, your children, is a view most valuable in general. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 26th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Even though the technicals have been predicting this for several months, people were still taken aback by gold’s fall — that’s why they are booing. While the precious metals received a round of applause for their performances in October, I warned on several occasions that the celebration was premature. And with gold, silver, and mining stocks resuming their 2021 downtrends, investors’ cheers have turned into jeers in short order. To explain, I warned previously that the GDX ETF could rally to or slightly above $35 (the senior miners reached this level intraday on Nov. 12, moving one cent above it). However, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling overbought conditions, I highlighted just how quickly the air often comes out of the balloon. For context, the blue vertical dashed lines below depict the sharp reversals that followed after the GDX ETF’s RSI approached or superseded 70. Why am I telling you this? To emphasize that what happened recently was neither random nor accidental. What you see is a true, short-term top that formed in tune with previous patterns. You also see a fake inverse head-and-shoulders formation that was invalidated. This means that the implications of what happened really are bearish. Let’s check why and how, in tune with the past patterns, the previous broad top really was. Please see below: The GDX ETF rallied on huge volume on Nov. 11 and there were only 4 cases in the recent past when we saw something like that after a visible short-term rally. In EACH of those 4 cases, GDX was after a sharp daily rally. In EACH of those 4 cases, GDX-based RSI indicator (upper part of the chart above) was trading close to 70. The rallies that immediately preceded these 4 cases: The July 27, 2020 session was immediately preceded by a 29-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 42% higher. It was 7 trading days before the final top (about 24% of time). The November 5, 2020 session was immediately preceded by a 5-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 14%-15% higher (the high-volume day / the top). It was 1 trading day before the final top (20% of time). The January 4, 2021 session was immediately preceded by a 26-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 17%-18% higher (the high-volume day / the top). It was 1 trading day before the final top (about 4% of time). The May 17, 2021 session was immediately preceded by a 52-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 30% higher. It was 7 trading days before the final top (about 13% of time). So, as you can see these sessions have even more in common than it seemed at the first sight. The sessions formed soon before the final tops (4% - 24% of time of the preceding rally before the final top), but the prices didn’t move much higher compared to how much they had already rallied before the high-volume sessions. Consequently, since history tends to rhyme, it would have been only natural for one to expect the GDX ETF to move a bit higher here (but not significantly so) and for one to assume that this move higher would take between additional 0 to 7 trading days (based on the Nov. 12 session). That’s what is wrote to my subscribers – to expect this kind of performance. The final top formed on Nov. 16 - 4 trading days after the huge-volume session, practically right in the middle of the expected 0-7 trading day range. Moreover, since the GDX topped very close to its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, it seems that miners corrected “enough” for another huge downswing to materialize. Having said that, let’s move on to more recent developments. Gold price declined heavily recently and the same goes for the silver price. What’s more, the proxy for junior mining stocks - the GDXJ ETF (our short position) materially underperformed on Nov. 26 – after it declined by nearly 3x the percentage of the GDX ETF – and, in my opinion, more downside is likely to materialize over the medium term. The GDXJ ETF ended the Nov. 26 session slightly below its 50-day moving average, and the milestone is often a precursor to sharp drawdowns. That’s what happened in late February 2020 and also in mid-June 2021. Big declines followed in both cases. Moreover, with the S&P 500’s weakness on Nov. 26 mirroring the onslaught that unfolded in early 2020, the GDXJ ETF’s underperformance follows a familiar script. As a result, another ‘flash crash’ for the pair may unfold once again. Keep in mind, though: while asset prices often don’t move in a straight line, a bullish pause may ensue if/once gold reaches its previous lows. All in all, though, lower lows should confront the GDXJ ETF over the short term and my $35 price target remains up to date. As a reminder, that’s only an interim target, analogous to the late-Feb. 2020 low. Interestingly, it is the February 2020 low along with its late-March 2020 high that created this target. Also, the GDXJ/GDX ratio is falling once again. And with the price action implying that the GDXJ ETF is underperforming the GDX ETF, a drop below 1 isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. In fact, it’s quite likely. As such, this is why I’m shorting the junior mining stocks. For context, I think that gold, silver and the GDX ETF are all ripe for sharp re-ratings over the medium term. However, I think that the GDXJ ETF offers the best risk-reward proposition due to its propensity to materially underperform during bear markets in the general stock market. Finally, the HUI Index/gold ratio is also eliciting bearish signals. For example, I marked (with the shaded red boxes below) just how similar the current price action is to 2013. And back then, after a sharp decline was followed by a small corrective upswing before the plunge, the ratio’s current behavior mirrors its historical counterpart. What’s more, the end of the corrective upswing in 2013 occurred right before gold sunk to its previous lows (marked with red vertical dashed lines in the middle of the chart below). Thus, the ratio is already sending ominous warnings about the PMs’ future path. In addition, with the S&P 500 acting as the bearish canary in the coal mine, the ratio plunged in 2008 and 2020 when the general stock market tanked. Thus, if a similar event unfolds this time around, the gold miners’ sell-off could occur at a rapid pace. For more context, I wrote previously: A major breakdown occurred after the HUI Index/gold ratio sunk below its rising support line (the upward sloping black line on the right side of the chart above). Moreover, with the bearish milestone only achieved prior to gold’s crash in 2012-2013, the ratio’s breakdown in 2013 was the last chance to short the yellow metal at favorable prices. And while I’ve been warning about the ratio’s potential breakdown for weeks, the majority of precious metals investors are unaware of the metric and its implications. As a result, investors’ propensity to ‘buy the dip’ in gold will likely backfire over the medium term. In conclusion, the crowd has turned on the precious metals, and the narrative has shifted once again. However, despite all of the drama and the volatility that came with it, the technicals have been predicting this outcome for several months. And with the GDXJ ETF down by more than 20% YTD (as of the Nov. 26 close), the junior miners’ 2021 performance is far from critically-acclaimed. As a result, the chorus of boos will likely continue over the short- and/or medium term. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

You see a commodity going down, then it reverses and starts teasing you with an upward move… only to end up declining further. Is this the case now?I started yesterday’s analysis with a question that I then replied to, explaining why I thought that it wasn’t necessarily a good idea take profits from one’s short positions at this time, as the corrective upswings could be nothing to write home about, and that it might not be that easy to get back in the short positions at better (higher) prices.Well, yesterday’s session showed exactly what I meant, and the 4-hour chart found below provides the details.The upper part of the chart features the GDX ETF (proxy for gold mining stocks), and the lower part thereof features the GLD ETF (proxy for gold price itself.)First of all, gold stocks were first to break below their rising support line – that happened a couple of days ago. Gold moved decisively below its rising support line only yesterday. This emphasizes that gold stocks are leading gold lower. This, in turn, is a bearish confirmation in itself, as that’s what tends to happen at the beginning of a bigger move lower.The way both markets performed yesterday was also quite interesting.In case of mining stocks, the intraday rally took GDX just slightly above its rising support line and then miners moved back down in a flash. In other words, if anyone had exited their short positions in order to re-enter them at higher prices, they had very little time to do so, and the most realistic version of this scenario is that they ended the session while missing the 1% decline in the GDX. The silver price was down by just 4 cents, but still, it was a move lower despite an intraday rally.In the case of GLD, one might have thought that gold was bound to rally since it stopped at its rising support line (based on the Sep. and Nov. lows). And gold even rallied by about $20 intraday… Only to decline more and end yesterday’s session lower.That was not a reversal. That was a bull trap.And the most bearish thing about yesterday’s decline – and weakness? It happened while the USD Index moved lower during the day. The USDX ended the day 0.33 lower, which “should have” triggered gold’s rally. Instead, gold declined, proving that it really wants to move lower. And suggesting that profits from one’s short positions in mining stocks are likely to become bigger.Don’t get me wrong – I do think that we’ll see a counter-trend upswing, but it’s just not that likely that we’ll see it right now. For quite some time, I’ve been repeating that it’s likely that we’ll see some kind of corrective upswing once gold moves back to its yearly lows, and this remains to be the case.Then, after the rebound, gold is likely to decline once again, perhaps to its final lows (for many years to come).Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The most obvious first step is: “How much?” Depending on your time horizon and if your approach is purely diversification for your overall portfolio, a percentage of total investment capital needs to be set. This percentage should be higher on a more aggressive wealth preservation strategy and higher expected returns on beating inflation. Another aspect is if silver is traded as the only hedge or alongside other precious metals. Silver already has a leverage factor in relationship to gold. For example, gold’s response to covid was a 37% up move, while silver moved up 80%. This volatility leverage works both ways, increasing the risk for silver if not purchased on low-risk entry points and traded with appropriate money management. We have pointed out various reasons why we find silver an extremely attractive play long term in this year’s chart book releases. Monthly chart (a week ago), Silver in US-Dollar, ready: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The above chart was posted in our last week’s publication. We wrote:” The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22.” Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, set: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We were spot on. The anticipated entry zone has been reached. We added to our physical holdings and shared the trade live in our free Telegram channel. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We asked, “how much?” and in what diversification, which leaves us with the question of what denomination. The rule of thumb is that the smaller the weight amount is and the more recognizable the brand, the higher the cost. In addition, valuable numismatic collector’s coins have premiums as well. Generally, we find the added cost of brand items (Canadian maple leaf, American eagles, Austrian Philharmonic, and alike) to be of value since it adds to liquidity at a time of sale. While we would stay away from the added cost of numismatic collectible coins, we find there to be value to have a mix of coins and larger bars to arrive at a reasonably low-cost basis with a high degree of liquidity at the time of sale (larger bars are harder to sell than one-ounce coins). The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver, there is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September. As pointed out in the previous chart book, the goal of physical acquisition should not be the ultimate lowest price but availability and execution itself. We make a point of this, especially since we noticed that physical acquisition prices have in percentage retraced much less than the spot price right here, and once the turn is complete, could proportionally faster jolt up. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. It is essential to have an exit strategy in place before entry. These exit projections are necessary to measure risk/reward-ratios. Moreover, with the entire plan clear, there will be no debate while in the trade. This part of exit psychology is often overlooked, but a low-risk entry point alone does not provide a good strategy. We expect a price advance on silver within the next six to eight quarters to a price target of US$74.40! Significant profits allowing for an outstanding risk/reward-ratio. Ready, set, silver, go: Last week, we anticipated the market’s direction correctly and find ourselves now at the desired low-risk entry zone. With possible additional questions about physical acquisition answered today, we might have reduced doubt. The devil is in the details, and due to the various countries, their taxation law, and the wide variety of official precious metal dealers, we did not dive into the details on where to take possession of your possibly desired purchase.  Nevertheless, our multinational membership in our free Telegram channel might provide helpful information to your specific situation. We hope we have provided enough knowledge to erase doubt. We encourage participation since we see procrastination towards a wealth preservation strategy as the poorest choice in this challenging time for your hard-earned money. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 3rd, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

  Fundamentals are as strong as ever, but gold has to go some way down before it can resume its uptrend. Think of Moria from The Lord of the Rings. While inflation has soared, the S&P 500 has soared, WTI has soared, and copper has soared, 2021 has been extremely unkind to the precious metals. Gold has declined by 6.25%, silver by 16.66% and the GDX ETF by 14.83% YTD – not to mention the GDXJ ETF (our short position), which is down by 24.91% (all as of the Dec. 9 close). Moreover, investors often assume that material underperformance provides them with buying opportunities. I mean, why not position for a reversion to the mean? However, the harsh truth is that bearish technicals predicted these drawdowns well in advance. And while 2021 has been rough, the charts signal more downside in 2022. To explain, while gold prices, silver prices, and mining stocks rallied hard in October, their price action was more of a trick than a treat. And with the trio becoming part of the bears’ Thanksgiving dinner in November, only Santa Clause can save them now. However, while the S&P 500 had uplifted sentiment, the GDX ETF closed the Dec. 9 session one cent below its Dec. 3 close and the senior miners gave back all of their early-week stock-market-induced gains. As a result, investors aren’t showing much faith in the GDX ETF’s medium-term prospects. Please see below: As further evidence, the GDX ETF’s 4-hour chart is also sending ominous signals. For example, after running into its declining resistance line (the red dashed line on the right side of the chart below), the senior miners’ momentum fizzled, and a sharp decline followed. For more context, I wrote the following on Dec. 7 and updated the analysis on Dec. 9: After verifying the breakdown below its rising support line, the GDX moved lower, just as I expected it to. Now it’s after a breakdown below its previous (November) lows, and it seems to be verifying that breakdown just as it verified the breakdown below the rising support line in late November. The black dashed line in the above chart shows the resistance provided by the previous lows. It wasn’t invalidated. At the same time, the GDX is well below its declining red resistance line, and even if it moves close to this line but then declines, it will not be viewed as something bullish. What happened yesterday (Wednesday) and on Tuesday is exactly what I put in bold. Gold miners moved to their declining red resistance lines and then they moved back down. As far as the November lows are concerned, while it might not be 100% clear based on the above chart, it is the case that the lowest daily close in November was $31.53, and yesterday, the GDX ETF closed the day at $31.49. As the daily closes are more important than the mid-session candlestick closes, I don’t view the breakdown below the November lows as invalidated. Showcasing similar weakness, the GDXJ ETF also reversed sharply after slightly breaking above its declining resistance line (the black dashed line on the right side of the chart below). The invalidation of the breakout served as a strong sell sign, and it’s no wonder that junior miners declined by almost 3% yesterday. Moreover, investors rejected the junior miners’ attempt to rally back above their November lows. As a result, whether big or small, the gold miners have struggled mightily. Please see below: To that point, with more negativity likely to commence in the coming weeks and months, I wrote on Dec. 2 that the selling pressure may persist until the GDXJ ETF reaches its September lows: One of the previous situations that’s similar to the current one is what we saw right before the mid-year top. I marked mid-year declines (from the start to the first more visible correction) in both charts: GDX and GDXJ with orange rectangles. If the history repeats itself, both proxies for mining stocks could move back to their previous 2021 lows before correcting. Please see below: Finally, while I’ve been warning for months that the GDXJ/GDX ratio was destined for devaluation, the ratio has fallen precipitously in 2021. Interestingly, the ratio is still moving lower, its RSI was previously overbought, and similar periods of excessive optimism have preceded major drawdowns (marked with the black vertical dashed lines below). For example, the ratio showcased a similar overbought reading in early 2020 – right before the S&P 500 plunged. On top of that, the ratio is still near its mid-to-late 2020 lows and its mid-2021 lows. As a result, the GDXJ ETF will likely underperform the GDX ETF over the next few months. It’s likely to underperform silver in the near term as well. Furthermore, a drop below 1 in the ratio isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. In fact, it’s actually quite likely – that’s what happened in 2020 as well, and that’s why I’m shorting the GDXJ ETF. For context, I believe that gold, silver, and the GDX ETF are all ripe for sharp re-ratings over the medium term. However, it’s my belief that the GDXJ ETF offers the best risk-reward ratio due to its propensity to materially underperform during bear markets. As a result, shorting junior miners remains the most prudent strategy, in my opinion. In conclusion, while the seasons have changed, gold, silver, and mining stocks’ downtrends have remained the same. With a cold winter likely to culminate with new lows, the precious metals should embark on a tumultuous journey over the medium term. However, as Shakespeare told us: all's well that ends well. And with gold, silver and mining stocks poised to soar in the years to come, the bulls should have the last laugh over the long term. In the meantime, patience is prudent, as sharp drawdowns will likely materialize before the precious metals resume their secular uptrends. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

So, what are the facts: Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, probabilities: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 10th, 2021. In 2020, silver broke a multiyear sideways range and moved strongly up. It has now consolidated for over a year in a sideways range again. This is a bullish setup! As much as emotions might be weary, from a probability perspective, a general rule is that the longer a congestion is from a time perspective, the more significant will be the subsequent breakout from that range. Statistical probabilities are also clearly pointing to the upside rather than returning into the prior range. Not to forget, buying near the lows of such a range box guarantees the lowest entry risk and highest risk/reward-ratio play to be taken for the long side, even if emotions might tell you otherwise. 2021 silver trades performance: 2021 silver trades performance. Another fact is that one does not need to know when and if a breakout is happening to extract money from the markets consistently. The above chart is this year’s silver trades that we posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel. The systematic approach focuses on low-risk entry points with a risk reduction method through our quad exit strategy. Sideways markets provide an income-producing aspect of one’s trading, and a possible breakout of a range would give a significant bonus. An approach like this keeps emotions in check since one’s labor gets rewarded and allows for significantly higher rewards once ranges do break. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, silver is moving up: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 10th, 2021. In short, while waiting is strenuous, and one might feel doubtful, from a probability perspective, silver is an even likelier success story now than it has been six months or a year ago. What should also not be underestimated is the fundamental situation of this wealth preservation play. The extensions of governments playing the inflation game to such length are like adding fuel to the silver play. Widespread problems that are the pillars to this insurance play have, if anything, increased. Consequently, supporting a good likelihood that silver prices go up. When? Well, that is hard to say since no one knows the future, but maybe this question gets proportionally in weight too much attention since insurance isn’t just bought for the next storm to come but in principle acquired to make one feel good and to protect one’s wealth long term. The quarterly chart above shows how silvers inherent volatility can sustain, in times of market turmoil, extended phases of extreme standard deviation levels. Price moves far away from the mean (red line). We are trading near the mean as of now, and the very right green line is a projection of a possible price move up.   S&P 500 in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, Quod erat demonstrandum: S&P 500 in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 10th, 2021. Still, some doubt left? Have a look at the above S&P500 chart, representing the broad market. Does that look like a healthy chart? Baby boomers and general stock-market participants might be in for a rude awakening once they realize how little their fiat currency is still worth when they cash in those stock portfolio investments. Just compare your total living cost from 2020 with 2021. All positions from food to health insurance, from car gas to electricity bills. Calculate the percentage difference from those two numbers and add this percentage to the average acquisition cost of your physical silver, and you have the real value of your silver already now. How does homelessness double to a half million people per day sleeping roofless factor in? Does this chart represent great times when we face supply chain disruptions? Or is it all smoke and mirrors, and once the music stops, there will be countless chairs missing for everyone to sit down? Silver is moving up: The essential principle in play is that markets are counterintuitive. Meaning your feelings might have switched from enthusiasm to uncertainty, even frustration, but probability facts are in direct opposition to one’s feelings. This principle is the underlying reason why moves out of extended congestion zones can result in substantial moves. Once emotionally weak hands are washed out, these breakouts come from an emotional perspective surprising. Bears step aside and bulls chase prices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

https://www.midastouch-consulting.com/13122021-gold-recovery-ahead December 13th, 2021: The gold market is nearing the end of a difficult and very challenging year. Most precious metal investors must have been severely disappointed. Gold – Recovery ahead. Review 2021 started quite bullish, as the gold price climbed rapidly towards US$1,960 at the beginning of the year. In retrospect, however, this peak on January 6th also represented the high for the year! In the following 11.5 months, gold did not even come close to reaching these prices again. Instead, prices came under considerable pressure and only bottomed out at the beginning and then again at the end of March around US$1,680 with a double low. Interestingly, the low on March 8th at US$1,676 did hold until today. The subsequent recovery brought gold prices back above the round mark of US$1,900 within two months. But already on June 1st, another violent wave of selling started, which pushed gold prices down by US$150 within just four weeks. Subsequently, gold bulls attempted a major recovery in the seasonally favorable early summer phase. However, they failed three times in this endeavor at the strong resistance zone around US$1,830 to US$1,835. As a result, sufficient bearish pressure had built up again, which was then unleashed in the flash crash on August 9th with a brutal sell-off within a few minutes and a renewed test of the US$1,677 mark. Despite this complete washout, gold bulls were only able to recover from this shock with difficulty. Hence, gold traded sideways mainly between US$1,760 and US$1,815 for the following three months. It was not until the beginning of November that prices quickly broke out of this tenacious sideways phase and thus also broke above the 15-month downtrend-line. This was quickly followed by another rise towards US$1,877. However, and this is quite indicative of the ongoing corrective cycle since the all-time high in August 2020, gold prices made another hard U-turn within a few days and sold off even faster than they had risen before. Since this last sell-off from US$1,877 down to US$1,762, gold has been stuck and kind of paralyzed for three weeks, primarily trading in a narrow range between US$1,775 and US$1,785. Obviously, the market seems to be waiting for the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, gold has not been able to do much in 2021. Most of the time it has gone sideways and did everything to confuse participants. These treacherous market phases are the very most dangerous ones. Physical investors can easily sit through such a sideways shuffling. But leveraged traders had nothing to laugh about. Either the movements in gold changed quickly and abruptly or almost nothing happened for days and sometimes even weeks while the trading ranges were shrinking. Technical Analysis: Gold in US-Dollar Weekly Chart – Bottoming out around US$1,780? Gold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview Despite the 15-month correction, gold has been able to easily hold above the uptrend channel, which goes back to December 2015. The steeper uptrend channel that began in the summer of 2018 is also still intact and would only be broken if prices would fall below US$1,700. Support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 has held over the last three weeks too. The weekly stochastic oscillator is currently neutral but has been slowly tightening for months. Overall, gold is currently trading right in the middle of its two Bollinger bands on the weekly chart. Thus, the setup is neutral. However, bottoming out around US$1,780 has a slightly increased probability. Daily Chart – New buying signal Gold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview On the daily chart, gold has been searching for support around its slightly rising 200-day moving average (US$1,793) over the last three weeks. However, eye contact has been maintained, hence a recapturing of this important moving average is still quite possible. Despite the failed breakout in November, the current price action has not moved away from the downtrend-line. A further attack on this resistance thus appears likely. Encouragingly, the daily stochastic has turned up from its oversold zone and provides a new buy signal. In summary, the chances of a renewed recovery starting in the near future predominate on the daily chart. In the first step, such a bounce could run to around US$1,815. Secondly, the bulls would then have to clear the downtrend-line, which would release further upward potential towards US$1,830 and US$1,870. The very best case scenario might see gold being able to rise to the psychological number of US$1,900 in the next two to four months. On the downside however, the support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 must be held at all costs. Otherwise, the threat of further downward pressure towards US$1,720 and US$1,680 intensifies. Commitments of Traders for Gold – Recovery ahead Commitments of Traders for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader The commercial net short position in the gold futures market was last reported at 245,623 contracts sold short. Although the setup has somewhat improved due to the significant price decline in recent weeks, the overall constellation continues to move in neutral waters. There is still no clear contrarian bottleneck in the futures market, where professional traders should have reduced their net short positions to below 100,000 contracts at least. Until then, it would still be a long way from current levels, which could probably only happen with a price drop towards US$1,625. As long as this does not happen, any larger move up will probably have a hard time. In summary, the CoT report provides a neutral signal and thus stands in the way of a sustainable new uptrend. However, given the current futures market data, temporary recoveries over a period of about one to three months are currently possible. Sentiment for Gold – Recovery ahead Sentiment Optix for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader Sentiment for gold has been meandering in the neutral and not very meaningful middle zone for more than a year. Furthermore, a complete capitulation or at least very high pessimism levels are still missing to end the ongoing correction. Such a high pessimism was last seen in spring of 2019, whereupon gold was able to rise more than US$800 from the lows at US$1,265 to US$2,075 within 15 months. This means that in the big picture, sentiment analysis continues to lack total capitulation. This can only be achieved with deeply fallen prices. In the short term, however, the Optix for gold has almost reached its lows for the year. At the same time, german mainstream press is currently asking, appropriately enough, “Why doesn’t gold protect against inflation? This gives us a short-term contrarian buy signal, which should enable a recovery rally over coming one to three months. Seasonality for Gold – Recovery ahead Seasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader As so often in recent years, precious metal investors are being put to the test in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the past, however, there was almost always a final sell-off around the last FOMC meeting between mid-November and mid-December. And this was always followed by an important low and a trend reversal. This year, everything points to December 15th or 16th. Following the FOMC interest rate decision and the FOMC press conference, the start of a recovery would be extremely typical. Statistically, gold prices usually finish the last two weeks of the year with higher prices, because trading volume in the west world is very low over the holidays, while in Asia, and especially in China and India, trading is more or less normal. Also, the “tax loss selling” in mining stocks should be over by now. Overall, the seasonal component turns “very bullish” in a few days, supporting precious metal prices from mid-December onwards. Typically, January in particular is a very positive month for gold, but the favorable seasonal period lasts until the end of February. Macro update and Crack-up-Boom: US-Inflation as of November 30th, 2021. ©Holger Zschaepitz Last Friday, inflation in the U.S. was reported to have risen to 6.8% for the month of November. This is the fastest price increase since 1982, when Ronald Reagan was US president, and the US stock markets had started a new bull market after a 16-year consolidation phase. Today, by contrast, the financial markets have been on the central banks’ drip for more than a decade, if not more than two. The dependence is enormous and a turn away from the money glut is unthinkable. Nevertheless, the vast majority of market participants still allow themselves to be bluffed by the Fed and the other central banks and blindly believe the fairy tales of these clowns. The Global US-Dollar Short Squeeze However, while inflation figures worldwide are going through the roof due to the gigantic expansion of the money supply and the supply bottlenecks, the US-Dollar continues to rise at the same time. A nasty US-Dollar short squeeze has been building up since early summer. The mechanism behind this is not easy to understand and gold bugs in particular often have a hard time with it. From a global perspective, the US-Dollar is still the most important reserve currency and thus also the most important international medium of exchange as well as the most important store of value for almost all major countries. Completely independently of this, many of these countries still use their own currency domestically. International oil trade and numerous other commodities are also invoiced and settled in US-Dollar. For example, when France buys oil from Saudi Arabia, it does not pay in its own currency, EUR, but in USD. Through this mechanism, there has been a solid demand for US-Dollar practically non-stop for decades. The US-Dollar system The big risk of this “US-Dollar system”, however, is that many foreign governments and companies borrow in US-Dollar, even though most of their revenue is generated in the respective national currency. The lenders of these US-Dollar are often not even US institutions. Foreign lenders also often lend to foreign borrowers in dollars. This creates a currency risk for the borrower, a mismatch between the currency of their income and the currency of their debt. Borrowers do this because they have to pay lower interest rates for a loan in US-Dollar than in their own national currency. Sometimes dollar-denominated bonds and loans are also the only way to get liquidity at all. Thus, it is not the lender who bears the currency risk, but the borrower. In this way, the borrower is basically taking a short position against the US-Dollar, whether he wants to or not. Now, if the dollar strengthens, this becomes a disadvantage for him, because his debt increases in relation to his income in the local currency. If, on the other hand, the US-Dollar weakens, the borrower is partially relieved of debt because his debt falls in relation to his income in the local currency. Turkish lira since December 2020 as of December 13th, 2021.©Holger Zschaepitz Looking, for example, at the dramatic fall of the Turkish lira, one can well imagine the escalating flight from emerging market currencies into the US-Dollar. Since the beginning of the year, Turks have lost almost 50% of their purchasing power against the US-Dollar. A true nightmare. Other emerging market currencies such as the Argentine peso, the Thai baht or even the Hungarian forint have also come under significant pressure this year. On top, the Evergrande bankruptcy and the collapse of the real estate bubble in China may also have contributed significantly to this smoldering wildfire. All in all, the “US-Dollar short squeeze” may well continue despite a technically heavily overbought situation. Sooner or later, however, the Federal Reserve will have to react and row back again. Otherwise, the strength of the US-Dollar will suddenly threaten a deflationary implosion in worldwide stock markets and in the entire financial system. The global house of cards would not survive such shock waves. The tapering is “nearish” It is therefore highly likely that the Fed will soon postpone the so-called “tapering” and the “interest rate hikes” until further notice. To explain this, they will surely come up with some gibberish with complicated-sounding words. All in all, an end to loose monetary policy is completely unthinkable. Likewise, the supply bottlenecks will remain for the time being. This means that inflation will continue to be fueled by both monetary and scarcity factors and, on top of that, by the psychological inflationary spiral. In these crazy times, investors in all sectors will have to patiently endure temporary volatility and the accompanying sharp pullbacks. Conclusion: Gold – Recovery ahead With gold and silver, you can protect yourself well against any scenario. In the medium and long term, however, this does not necessarily mean that precious metal prices will always track inflation one-to-one and go through the roof in the coming years. Most likely, the exponential expansion of the money supply will continue and accelerate. Hence, significantly higher gold and silver prices can then be expected. If, on the other hand, the system should implode, gold and silver will be able to play out their monetary function to the fullest and one will be glad to own them when almost everything else must be written down to zero. In the bigger picture, however, gold and silver fans will have to remain patient for the time being, because the clear end of the months-long correction has not yet been sealed. Rather, the most important cycle in the gold market should deliver an important low approximately every 8 years. The last time this happened was in December 2015 at US$1,045. This means that the correction in the gold market could continue over the next one or even two years until the trend reverses and the secular bull market finally continues. In the short term, however, the chances of a recovery in the coming weeks into the new year and possibly even into spring are quite good. But it should only gradually become clearer after the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday what will happen next. A rally towards US$1,815 and US$1,830 has a clearly increased probability. Beyond that, US$1,870 and in the best case even US$1,910 could possibly be reached in February or March. For this to happen, however, the bulls would have to do a lot of work. Analysis initially written and published on on December 13th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on December 13th, 2021. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Florian Grummes|December 13th, 2021|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold mining, Gold neutral, Silver, The bottom is in|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.

  Gold is barely crawling up, while silver is boldly climbing the market ladder. When will its rungs turn slippery, causing the precious metal to fall?  Yesterday’s session was particularly uneventful in the case of the precious metals market, as crude oil and the general stock market stole the spotlight. Consequently, today’s analysis will focus on what’s happening in pre-market trading, as that’s what appears to be more important. At the moment of writing these words, gold is up very modestly – less than 0.2%. Consequently, after rallying to about $1,815 (in tune with my Thursday’s analysis) and invalidating the breakout above the rising resistance line, gold appears to be making another attempt to rally, but the strength of the move is very limited. Predicting higher gold prices might not be the best idea here, as the yellow metal was not able to even get to the red line, let alone to its previous monthly high. Silver, on the other hand, has moved quite visibly higher so far today. While gold moved higher by less than 0.2%, silver rallied by about 1.5% and is now trading very close to its previous monthly highs. This is very interesting, because silver is showing strength and weakness at once. How is that possible – one might ask. It’s the same as with trends or forecasts for silver. They can be bearish and bullish simultaneously, depending on the time frame that one focuses on. For example, I think that the very long-term outlook for silver is extremely bullish, but I also think that the medium-term trend is bearish. The short-term trend is also bearish, but the immediate-term trend is bullish. So, am I bullish or bearish on silver? Answering this without specifying the time frame is bound to create misunderstandings. Getting back to silver’s relative performance, it’s been weak when taking into account the last couple of weeks – please note how little of the recent monthly decline silver has corrected compared to gold. Gold recently moved to its October highs, but silver topped a few dollars below its October high. What does it tell us? Silver is likely to fall hard, also compared to gold, probably in tune with the general stock market – similarly to what happened in 2008 and 2020. That’s the same kind of performance that we saw in the very early parts of the huge declines. At the same time, silver is strong compared to gold on an immediate-term basis. This means that we’re likely at or close to a short-term top. Why? Because that’s what the precious metals market tends to do when it’s topping, and it’s one of the great gold trading tips to monitor the PM market for these situations. One could debate why this is really the case, and there are quite a few theories (the silver market is smaller, so more prone to sudden moves, etc.), but the point is that it simply works. Please note that some things – like the Pareto principle (a.k.a. the 20:80 rule) – can work and be very useful, even if it’s not clear why they work. Consequently, it seems that the days of this short-term corrective upswing are either over or about to be over, and that the precious metals sector will return to its medium-term decline any day now. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Gold’s latest feats increased investors’ appetite. The outlook for the dollar, however, remains healthy. That can only mean one thing. As volatility erupts across the financial markets, gold and silver prices are being pulled in conflicting directions. For example, with the USD Index suffering a short-term decline, the outcome is fundamentally bullish for the precious metals. However, with U.S. Treasury yields rallying, the outcome is fundamentally bearish for gold and silver prices. Then, with panic selling and panic buying confronting the general stock market, the PMs are dealing with those crosscurrents. However, with QE on its deathbed and the Fed poised to raise the Federal Funds Rate in the coming months, the common denominator is rising real interest rates. To explain, the euro’s recent popularity has impacted the USD Index. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the dollar basket’s movement. Thus, if real interest rates rise and the U.S. dollar falls, what will happen to the PMs? Well, the reality is that rising real interest rates are bullish for the USD Index, and the euro’s recent ECB-induced rally is far from a surprise. With investors often buying the EUR/USD in anticipation of a hawkish shift from the ECB, another ‘hopeful’ upswing occurred. However, the central bank disappointed investors time and time again in 2021, and the currency pair continued to make new lows. As a result, we expect the downtrend to resume over the medium term.  Supporting our expectations, I wrote the following about financial conditions and the USD Index on Feb. 2: To explain, the blue line above tracks Goldman Sachs' Financial Conditions Index (FCI). For context, the index is calculated as a "weighted average of riskless interest rates, the exchange rate, equity valuations, and credit spreads, with weights that correspond to the direct impact of each variable on GDP." In a nutshell: when interest rates increase alongside credit spreads, it's more expensive to borrow money and financial conditions tighten. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the FCI has surpassed its pre-COVID-19 high (January 2020). Moreover, the FCI bottomed in January 2021 and has been seeking higher ground ever since. In the process, it's no coincidence that the PMs have suffered mightily since January 2021. To that point, with the Fed poised to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, the FCI should continue its ascent. As a result, the PMs' relief rallies should fall flat like in 2021.  Likewise, while the USD Index has come down from its recent high, it's no coincidence that the dollar basket bottomed with the FCI in January 2021 and hit a new high with the FCI in January 2022. Thus, while the recent consolidation may seem troubling, the medium-term fundamentals supporting the greenback remain robust. Furthermore, tighter financial conditions are often a function of rising real interest rates. As mentioned, the USD Index bottomed with the FCI and surged to new highs with the FCI. As a result, the fundamentals support a stronger, not weaker USD Index. As evidence, the U.S. 10-Year real yield, the FCI, and the USD Index have traveled similar paths since January 2020. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the USD Index since January 2020, while the red line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year real yield. While the latter didn’t bottom in January 2021 like the USD Index and the FCI (though it was close), all three surged in late 2021 and hit new highs in 2022. Moreover, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury nominal and real yields hit new 2022 highs on Feb. 4.  In addition, if you compare the two charts, you can see that all three metrics spiked higher when the coronavirus crisis struck in March 2020. As such, the trio often follows in each other’s footsteps. Furthermore, with the Fed likely to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, this realization supports a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield, and a higher FCI. As a result, the fundamentals underpinning the USD Index remain robust, and short-term sentiment is likely to be responsible for the recent weakness.  Likewise, as the Omicron variant slows U.S. economic activity, the ‘bad news is good news’ camp has renewed hopes for a dovish Fed. However, the latest strain is unlikely to affect the Fed’s reaction function. A case in point: after ADP’s private payrolls declined by 301,000 in January (data released on Feb. 2), concern spread across Wall Street. However, after U.S. nonfarm payrolls (government data) came in at 467,000 versus 150,000 expected on Feb. 4, the U.S. labor market remains extremely healthy.  Please see below: Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) On top of that, the BLS revealed that “the over-the-month employment change for November and December 2021 combined is 709,000 higher than previously reported, while the over-the-month employment change for June and July 2021 combined is 807,000 lower. Overall, the 2021 over-the-year change is 217,000 higher than previously reported.”  Thus, the U.S. added more than 700,000 combined jobs in November and December than previously reported, and the net gain in 2021 was more than 200,000. Please see below: Source: BLS As for wage inflation, the BLS also revealed: “In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 23 cents to $31.63. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.7 percent.” As a reminder, while investors speculate on the prospect of a hawkish ECB, the latest release out of Europe shows that wage inflation is much weaker than in the U.S. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 1: Eurozone hourly labor costs rose by 2.5% YoY on Dec. 16 (the latest release). Moreover, the report revealed that “the costs of wages & salaries per hour worked increased by 2.3%, while the non-wage component rose by 3.0% in the third quarter of 2021, compared with the same quarter of the previous year.”  As a result, non-wage labor costs – like insurance, healthcare, unemployment premiums, etc. – did the bulk of the heavy lifting. In contrast, wage and salary inflation are nowhere near the ECB’s danger zone. Please see below: And why is wage inflation so critical? Well, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Jan. 25: Source: ECB As a result, when the ECB’s Chief Economist tells you that wage inflation needs to hit 3% YoY to be “consistent” with the ECB’s 2% overall annual inflation target, a wage print of 2.3% YoY is far from troublesome. Thus, while euro bulls hope that the ECB will mirror the Fed and perform a hawkish 180, the data suggests otherwise.  In addition, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls materially outperformed on Feb. 4, I noted on Feb. 2 that there are now 4.606 million more job openings in the U.S. than citizens unemployed. Please see below: To explain, the green line above subtracts the number of unemployed U.S. citizens from the number of U.S. job openings. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the epic collapse has completely reversed and the green line is now at an all-time high. Thus, with more jobs available than people looking for work, the economic environment supports normalization by the Fed. Thus, if we piece the puzzle together, the U.S. labor market remains healthy and U.S. inflation is materially outperforming the Eurozone. As a result, the Fed should stay ahead of the ECB, and the hawkish outperformance supports a weaker EUR/USD and a stronger USD Index. Moreover, the dynamic also supports a higher FCI and a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield. As we’ve seen since January 2021, these fundamental outcomes are extremely unkind to the PMs. Finally, while the Omicron variant has depressed economic sentiment, I noted previously that the disruptions should be short-lived. For example, with Americans’ anxiety about COVID-19 decelerating, renewed economic strength should keep the pressure on the Fed. Please see below: To explain, the light brown line above tracks the net percentage of Americans concerned about COVID-19, while the dark brown line above tracks the change in flight search trends on Kayak. In a nutshell: the more concern over COVID-19 (a high light brown line), the more Americans hunker down and avoid travel (a low dark brown line). However, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light brown line has rolled over and the dark brown line has materially risen. Moreover, with the trend poised to persist as the warmer weather arrives, increased mobility should uplift sentiment, support economic growth, and keep the Fed’s rate hike cycle on schedule. The bottom line? The USD Index’s fundamentals remain extremely healthy, and while short-term sentiment has been unkind, rising real yields and a hawkish Fed should remain supportive over the medium term. Moreover, with the PMs often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, more downside should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks over the next few months. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 4, despite the spike in U.S. Treasury yields. However, with so much volatility confronting the general stock market recently, sentiment has pulled the PMs in many directions. However, the important point is that the medium-term thesis remains intact: the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields should seek higher ground, and the realization is profoundly bearish for the precious metals sector. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  The market was up, but mining stocks chose to reverse. Meanwhile, gold sent a clear signal to investors. So, when everyone buys, what happens? The gold mining stocks and silver mining stocks have reversed, even though gold didn’t. The top for the former is likely in. Most developments regarding the precious metals and their immediate surroundings were a continuation of what we had seen in the previous days, but one thing was different. That one thing is particularly informative. It has trading implications, too. Without further ado, let’s jump into mining stocks. Gold miners fell. Even though they declined by just $0.06, it was profound. The miners were following gold higher during the early part of yesterday’s (Feb. 9) session, but they lost strength close to the middle thereof and were back down before the closing bell. If the gold price reversed and then declined during the day, that would have been normal. However, gold stayed up. It’s fairer to compare GDX to GLD than to compare GDX to gold continuous futures contracts, as the former have the same closing hours, so let’s take a look at what GLD did yesterday. There was no reversal. GLD simply stopped at its declining medium-term resistance line. Also, the general stock market was up yesterday. Consequently, gold mining stocks had no good reason to decline. In fact, they “should have” rallied. They didn’t – they reversed instead. This tells us that the buying power has either dried up or is drying up. When everyone who wanted to get into the market is already in it, the price can do only one thing (regardless of bullish factors) – fall. Those who are already in can then sell. Monitoring the markets for this kind of cross-sector performance is one of the more important gold trading tips. Look, I’m not saying that declines now are “guaranteed”. There are no guarantees in the markets. There might be buyers that haven’t considered mining stocks that would now enter the market, but history tells us that this is unlikely. Instead, declines are very likely to follow. Let’s focus on the GLD ETF chart one more time. As I wrote earlier, it approached its declining medium-term resistance line. Any small breakout here is likely to be invalidated just like what we saw previously in November 2021 and January 2022. This time, however, the volume is low, so gold might not have enough strength for a breakout, and it could decline right away. Junior mining stocks provide us with a perfect confirmation of the bearish narrative. I emphasized before that juniors hadn’t moved above their 50-day moving average, and that they stayed below their rising blue resistance line. Consequently – I wrote – the downtrend in them remained clearly intact. Yesterday’s reversal served as a perfect confirmation of the above. The previous breakdowns were verified in one of the most classic ways. The silver price has been quite strong recently, which is also something that we see close to the local tops. The reversals in mining stocks, the situation in gold, AND the situation in the USD Index together paint a very bearish picture for the precious metals market in the short and medium term. By “the situation in the USD Index”, I’m referring to the fact that it’s after its early-month reversal and right above its rising medium-term support line that was not successfully broken. Since the USD Index remains above its rising medium-term support line, the trend remains up. Therefore, higher – not lower – USD Index values are to be expected. All in all, it seems that gold, silver, and mining stocks are going to decline in the coming weeks (quite possibly days) and that we won’t have to wait too long for the next big decline to start. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  In line with bearish bets, miners have thrown a match. Gold, however, doesn’t want to leave the ring without a fight. How long will it stay high? While gold remains relatively firm despite stock market turbulence, rising real yields, and bearish technical indicators, even a confluence of headwinds hasn’t been able to knock the yellow metal off its lofty perch. However, mining stocks haven’t been so lucky. With my short position in the GDXJ ETF offering a great risk-reward proposition, the junior gold miners’ underperformance has played out exactly as I expected. Moreover, with major spikes in volume preceding predictable sell-offs (follow the vertical dashed lines below), I’ve warned on several occasions that the GDX ETF is prone to tipping its hand – we saw this volume spike in January, which was the 2022 top (as of today). In addition, with mining investors’ power drying up by the day, the medium-term looks equally unkind. Please see below: On Wednesday, gold miners fell. Even though they declined by just $0.06, it was profound. The miners were following gold higher during the early part of Wednesday’s (Feb. 9) session, but they lost strength close to the middle thereof and were back down before the closing bell. If the gold price reversed and then declined during the day, that would have been normal. However, gold stayed up. This tells us that the buying power has either dried up or is drying up. When everyone who wanted to get into the market is already in it, the price can do only one thing (regardless of bullish factors) – fall. Those who are already in can then sell. Monitoring the markets for this kind of cross-sector performance is one of the more important gold trading tips. Look, I’m not saying that declines now are “guaranteed”. There are no guarantees in the markets. There might be buyers that haven’t considered mining stocks that would now enter the market, but history tells us that this is unlikely. Instead, declines are very likely to follow. Yesterday’s big daily decline confirmed my above comments. Gold miners declined much more than gold did, and they did so at above-average volume. The latter indicates that “down” is the true direction in which the precious metals market is heading. To that point, the HUI Index provides clues from a longer-term perspective. When we analyze the weekly chart, it highlights investors’ anxiety. For example, after hitting an intraweek high of roughly 260, the HUI Index ended the Feb. 10 session at roughly 250 – just 3.99 up from last Friday – that’s an intraweek reversal. Furthermore, with the index still in a medium-term downtrend, shades of 2013 still profoundly bearish, and sharp declines often preceded by broad head and shoulders patterns (marked with green), there are several negatives confronting the HUI Index. As such, a sharp drawdown will likely materialize sooner rather than later. Please see below: Finally, the GDXJ ETF is the gift that keeps on giving. For example, with lower highs and lower lows being part of the junior miners’ roughly one-and-a-half-year journey, false breakouts have confused many investors. However, while I’ve been warning about the weakness for some time, more downside is likely on the horizon. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 10: I emphasized before that juniors hadn’t moved above their 50-day moving average, and that they stayed below their rising blue resistance line. Consequently – I wrote – the downtrend in them remained clearly intact. Yesterday’s reversal served as a perfect confirmation of the above. The previous breakdowns were verified in one of the most classic ways. The silver price has been quite strong recently, which is also something that we see close to the local tops. The reversals in mining stocks, the situation in gold, outperformance of silver, AND the situation in the USD Index (the medium-term support held) together paint a very bearish picture for the precious metals market in the short and medium term. All in all, if the weakness continues, I expect the GDXJ ETF to challenge the $32 to $34 range. However, please note that this is my expectation for a short-term bottom. While the GDXJ ETF may record a corrective upswing at this level, the downtrend should continue thereafter, and the junior miners should fall further over the medium term. In conclusion, gold showcased its steady hand throughout the recent volatility. However, mining stocks have cracked under the pressure. With the latter’s underperformance often a bearish omen for the former, the yellow metal’s mettle may be tested over the medium term. As such, while the long-term outlooks for gold, silver, and mining stocks remain profoundly bullish, a final climax will likely unfold before their secular uptrends continue. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Sanctions, terminated contracts, and a plummeting currency – Russia is facing the financial crisis specter. Can gold also be affected? In the medium term, even painfully.  While gold continues to ride the bullish wave of geopolitical tensions, confusion has arisen over whether Russia’s financial woes will support or hurt the yellow metal. For context, I wrote on Feb. 28: Even if the recent escalation uplifts gold in the short term, the fundamental implications of Russia’s financial plight support lower gold prices over the medium term.  Please see below: To explain, with Russia essentially blacklisted from many influential FX counterparties, the Russian ruble relative to the U.S. dollar was exchanged for a roughly 50% discount on Feb. 27. As a result, Russian's purchasing power is nearly half of what it was before Sunday's developments. Furthermore, if you analyze the chart above, you can see that euros and U.S. dollars made up a large portion of Russia's monetary base in 2013 (the green bars on the left). Conversely, those holdings dropped dramatically in 2021 (the blue bars on the left).  In addition, if you focus your attention on the column labeled "Gold," you can see that FX has been swapped for gold, and the yellow metal accounts for roughly 23% of Russia's monetary base. Now, with the impaired state of the ruble offering little financial reprieve, Russia may have to sell its gold reserves to alleviate the pressure from NATO's economic sanctions.  As a result, while war is often bullish for gold, the fundamental implications of currency devaluation mean that gold is Russia's only worthwhile asset outside of oil. Thus, with bank runs already unfolding in the region, the yellow metal could be collateral damage. To that point, the USD/RUB closed at roughly 105 on Feb. 28. As a result, it costs 105 Russian rubles to obtain one U.S. dollar. With the spot gold price at around $1,900 per ounce, it costs roughly 199,500 Russian rubles to purchase an ounce of gold. In stark contrast, the USD/RUB closed at approximately 75 on Feb. 16, which means that less than two weeks ago, it cost 142,500 Russian rubles to purchase an ounce of gold at the current price. As such, in currency-adjusted terms, the cost of an ounce of gold in Russia has increased by roughly 40% in recent days. However, after Bloomberg posted an article on Feb. 27 titled “Bank of Russia Resumes Gold Buying After Two-Year Pause,” the revelation may have caused some anxiety about our short position (as a reminder, it’s not in gold, but in junior mining stocks). For context, an excerpt from the article read: “The central bank will begin buying gold again on the domestic precious metals market, it said in a statement. The move comes after the monetary authority and several of the country’s commercial banks were sanctioned in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” As a result, if Russia goes on a shopping spree for bullion, could the price skyrocket? Well, the reality is that the fundamentals don’t support the sentiment. As mentioned, the USD/RUB has surged in recent days, and the sharp decline in the value of the Russian currency is extremely bearish for the Russian economy. Please see below: Furthermore, while Russia may want to increase its gold reserves, it’s essential to focus on what Russia does and not what it says. For example, the Russian central bank increased its overnight lending rate from 9.5% to 20% on Feb. 28. While U.S. investors fret over a 25 basis point hike from the Fed (which, as mentioned previously, should occur in March), Russia had to increase interest rates by 10.5% to help stop the ruble’s bleeding.  Please see below: Source: Reuters For context, higher interest rates encourage capital flows, and with the ruble in free-fall, Russia is hoping that investors will buy the currency, invest in Russian bonds, and potentially earn a 20% return. Moreover, if the currency rallies during the holding period, the carry trade would be highly lucrative for an institution willing to incur the risk. However, the story is only sanguine in theory. In reality, though, crippling sanctions from NATO and private companies divesting their Russian assets mean that buying the ruble and other Russian securities requires a gambler’s mentality. For example, Viraj Patel, FX and Macro Strategist at Vanda Research, summed up the dynamic in a few simple words on Feb. 28: Source: Viraj Patel Twitter Thus, while Russia may claim it's buying gold, and who knows, maybe it will, the financial destruction plaguing the region will likely make Russia a net-seller over the medium term. To that point, if we circle back to the Bloomberg article referenced above, Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP SA, said in the same piece that investors would interpret the actions as short-term bullish.  However, aligning with our expectations, she noted that investors have misjudged the medium-term impact of Russia's currency crisis.  Please see below: Source: Bloomberg As a result, that’s why I wrote on Feb. 28 that while volatility may be the name of the game this week as investors struggle to digest the implications, the geopolitical risk premium that often supports gold may prove counterintuitive this time around. Furthermore, we shouldn't ignore the potential impact on the USD Index. For example, while the dollar basket defied expectations and rose materially in 2021, the momentum continued in 2022. However, after a sharp rally in January, investors repositioned their bets, and euro longs were in style once again. However, with the risk-on trade now disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, more downside for the euro implies more upside for the USD Index. Please see below: Source: Institute of International Finance (IIF)/Robin Brooks To explain, the color blocks above track the non-commercial (speculative) futures positioning for various currencies versus the U.S. dollar, while the black line above tracks the consolidated total. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the black line has moved higher recently, which signals fewer U.S. dollar long positions.   More importantly, though, if you focus your attention on the light blue blocks on the right side of the chart, you can see that speculative euro longs have increased and remain in positive territory. However, with the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict much more troublesome for the Eurozone than the U.S., speculative EUR/USD positioning still has plenty of room to move lower. To that point, Mark Sobel, Senior Advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), wrote on Feb. 28 that “the overall impact of Russia’s actions on the U.S. economy may not be significant, assuming oil prices don’t soar, though that remains a significant risk.” “The challenges for the ECB will be much greater in its debates over balancing the stagflationary consequences of the Russian invasion. Europe is a large net energy importer and remains dependent on Russia for oil and natural gas.” As a result: “European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will feel the strain more than Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Higher oil prices will boost inflation, weaken growth prospects and stoke stagflation fears.” Furthermore, if you analyze the right side of the chart below, you can see that Russia’s monetary base includes more euros (the light blue line) than U.S. dollars (the dark blue line). As a result, if Russia swaps its other FX holdings for rubles (to help stop the decline), the euro has more downside risk than the greenback. The bottom line? While Russia may put on a brave face and claim that gold purchases are on the horizon, the reality is that its materially weak financial position requires more attention to more pressing matters. With bank runs and a currency crisis already unfolding, combined with NATO sanctions and private companies divesting their Russian assets, the country’s leaders need to stem the tide before a depression unfolds. As a result, Russia’s oil revenues and the securities it can monetize are more likely to be used to support the Russian economy, rather than to buy gold. Thus, while the yellow metal has enjoyed short-term sentiment high (and so did the silver price), the fundamentals imply a much different outcome over the medium term. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Feb. 28, as the GDX ETF ended the session roughly flat. However, the recent rallies are far from troublesome. For example, I noted previously how gold rallied following the 2001 terrorist attacks and after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. However, those gains were short-lived, and the latter resulted in lower lows in the months that followed. As a result, while the recent volatility will likely continue, it doesn’t change the bearish medium-term thesis. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Silver is consolidating close to multi-month highs not far below $25.50 as markets remain intensely focused on the Ukraine conflict. Technicians have noted that spot silver prices have over the last few days formed an ascending triangle. Upcoming tier one US data releases (ISM Services on Thursday, NFP on Friday) will play second fiddle for geopolitics. Spot silver (XAG/USD) prices are consolidating close to multi-month highs with the $25.50 per troy ounce mark for now acting as resistance, but ongoing nervousness about the ongoing Ukraine conflict and its economic impact underpinning the safe-haven metal for now. At current levels in the $25.30s, spot silver trades broadly flat on the day, with focus for now on talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations in the hopes that some sort of ceasefire might be in the offing. Given maximalist demands still being made by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, demands which the Ukrainian government is very unlikely to accept, hopes that a broad ceasefire agreement can be reached are slim. That suggests no end in sight for the rally in the prices of commodities exported by Russia (oil, gas, various agricultural products and base metals), which will likely keep assets deemed as offering inflation protection in demand (like silver). Technicians have noted that spot silver prices have over the last few days formed an ascending triangle, a pattern that is more often than not indicative of a bullish breakout. Technical buying on a break above the $25.50 could dovetail nicely with the fundamentals if the Ukraine conflict continues to intensify and Western nations are expected to continue tightening the sanctions noose around Russia’s neck. Silver can move aggressively and some bulls likely have their sights set on mid-2021 highs in the $28.00 area. With focus so heavily on geopolitics, upcoming tier one US data releases (ISM Services PMI on Thursday and the official jobs report on Friday) and the second day of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Congress will take something of a back seat. Powell explained on Wednesday that current uncertainties regarding the impact of the Ukraine war would not deter the Fed from getting moving regarding removing policy stimulus. An expected strong jobs report on Friday should support this stance and probably won’t dent silver’s near-term appeal much.

USDCAD attempts to rebound The US dollar rallied after FOMC minutes showed the central bank’s plan to reduce its balance sheet. The pair found support at 1.2400 after the RSI went deeply into the oversold territory. A break above 1.2500 prompted sellers to cover their latest bets, easing the downward pressure in the process. The bulls need to clear offers near 1.2590 before they could push for a sustainable bounce. Failing that, further weakness could drive price action to October’s lows around 1.2300. NZDUSD breaks support The New Zealand dollar softened against its US counterpart after hawkish Fed minutes. The rally came to a halt in the supply zone around 0.7050 from last November’s sell-off. 0.6900 was important support and its breach forced short-term buyers to bail out. As the kiwi grinds 0.6875 over the 30-day moving average, an oversold RSI may cause a rebound. A deeper correction may send the pair to 0.6800 and cause a bearish reversal. The bulls need to reclaim 0.6940 to regain the upper hand. XAGUSD tests major support Silver struggles as the greenback recovers across the board. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart suggests a deterioration in the market mood. Buyers’ struggle to lift offers at the psychological level of 25.00 indicates prevailing strong selling pressure. Sentiment has become cautious as the precious metal revisits 24.00. Price action could be vulnerable to another round of sell-off if the bears succeed in pushing below this critical floor. Following that, 23.30 would be the next target.

Summary: Brent crude oil faces production problems around the world. Silver prices have been driven down by the US Dollar rally. Corn Futures are expected to remain elevated. Brent Crude Oil prices heavily affected by China's lockdowns. Over the past week we have seen the price of Brent Crude Oil fell amidst the lockdowns in China. The effect the lockdowns have had on the macro economy have been big, this price fall comes despite the warnings of production problems. There is currently a production problem with crude oil worldwide. April saw Russia’s production fall by almost 1 million barrels. The problems in the supply chains, the war and the lockdowns in China are all causing huge market volatility. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart   Read next: Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Fall As U.S Yields Rise, Wheat Prices Facing Pressure, Palladium Prices In Recovery! - Commodities Today.   Silver Prices struggling to fight against the current US Dollar rally. After seeing a dip in price on Monday, the price of silver futures seem to be somewhat recovering. One of the dominant drivers of the silver price is investor demand, seeing as it is considered a safe-haven asset that is mainly used by manufacturers of goods. The US Dollar continued to rally this past week, which is increasing the opportunity cost of holding silver, driving demand and prices down. Silver Futures Price Chart Corn Future Prices expected to stay elevated. The price of corn futures saw large increases earlier this week, this comes as a result of the poor harvest in Latin America for this season, and war in the Ukraine putting pressure on supply chains and supply. Corn is up by 37% year-to-date. The prices are expected to stay elevated for some time to come. Corn Futures Price Chart   Read next: Exxon and Chevron Earnings Announcements Has Little Effect on Brent Crude Oil Prices, Bullish Market Sentiment For Cotton and Gold Prices Rise Again    Sources: finance.yahoo.com

Summary: Brent crude oil prices are seeing some decline. Silver prices face downward pressure amidst the US Dollar Strengthening. Corn prices fall amidst worries about falling demand. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold, Coffee and Crude Oil - Commodities Facing Price Trouble Over the Past Month  Brent crude oil price falls. The price of oil has fallen on Monday amidst concerns around the strengthening US Dollar which hit a two-decade high, making holding oil more expensive for other currencies. The lockdowns in China have raised concerns around the demand for oil from the world's biggest importer. In addition the world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, lowered the prices of crude for Europe and Asia in June. All of these factors have resulted in the price of Brent Crude Oil falling. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart   Read next: What Is (DYDX)? dYdX Cryptocurrency Supporting Perpetual Trading - Altcoins of Interest | FXMAG.COM    As US yields increase, silver's value falls. The price of silver has been falling over the past week. The price fall comes as the Fed continues with their hawkish attitude. Silver is used as a hedge against inflation, with the Fed increasing the US yields in an attempt to fight inflation, the opportunity cost for holding silver increases. Investors are selling their silver and turning to investments where they can yield a higher return at the same level of risk i.e. US treasury bonds. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn prices facing downward price pressure. On monday the price of Corn futures had fallen by almost 1%, there has been a downward price trend for corn futures over the past week. There are still concerns around the lack of supply for corn all over the world, however, with the lockdowns in China, concerns around falling demand have risen. Last week the amount of traders who shorted corn outweighed those who chose to go long, indicating they expected the price to drop. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Soybean Prices Reached Almost Record Prices, Platinum Investors Turning To New Suppliers, Copper Prices Struggling To Recover.  Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, cnbc.com, reuters.com, barchart.com

Summary: Brent crude oil prices are rising in response to increasing demand. Silver prices are rising again. Improved weather conditions is leaving the market hopeful for an improved corn crop. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rise In The Wake Of Concerns Around U.S Economic Slowdown, Crude Oil Prices Rally In Response To Increasing Demand And Concerns Around Supply, Cotton Prices  Brent Crude Oil prices rising With the expected increase in demand for Brent crude oil in both the United States and in China's post-lockdown world, the price of Brent crude oil is rising. U.S gasoline and fuel prices remain at a record high level as the busiest driving season approaches. The market expects the demand for Brent crude to increase with the easing of lockdowns in China, causing further concerns around supply in an already tight market. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver prices rise again. A weakening US Dollar has aided in the rising price of Silver. Silver is considered a safe asset and is commonly used as a hedge against inflation which is attractive in the current economic environment. In addition, the rise in the price of silver also comes with investor need for safe-haven assets with the geo-political tensions and the concerns around the slowing global growth. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn futures fall Late last week the price of corn futures fell, this came in the wake of investors buying wheat and selling corn in spread trades amidst signs of improved U.S corn crop planting. The improved corn planting is easing concerns around supply, driving the price lower. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Summary: Lockdowns in China ease causing demand for Brent Crude to rise. Silver prices increase as market participants seek safe-haven assets. Supply concerns around corn are easing. read next (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rose For Second Consecutive Week, Concerns Around Crude Oil Supply Continues To Drive Price, Soybean Prices Rising  Brent Crude Oil prices continue to rise The combination of Beijing and Shanghai beginning to come out of Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend and the ongoing European discussions regarding banning crude oil imports from Russia are causing concerns around supply to tighten. On Monday and Tuesday an EU governments will use a summit to continue to argue in favour of an embargo on Russian crude. The prices of Crude oil are going into their sixth straight month of gains amidst the supply concerns, as demand begins to rise back up to pre-pandemic levels. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices are still on the rise A weaker US Dollar continues to give room for the price of silver to rise. Amidst continuing geopolitical tensions and growing concerns regarding slower global growth, investors are turning more towards safe-haven assets. Silver is considered to be a hedge against inflation, the Fed is still expected to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates further at their next two meetings. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Prices Corn prices are falling The price of corn futures fell late in May, to the lowest value in almost six weeks amidst expectations of higher supply and the easing of trading restrictions between major producers. Beijing and Brazil reached an agreement to begin corn exports from Brazil to China, after years of talks. In addition, actual planting of corn exceeded market expectations. The easing of supply concerns is slowly driving the price of corn futures down. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Summary: Rising covid cases in China and 40-year high US Inflation. The global economic outlook remains dim due to the rising borrowing costs, the war in Ukraine, high commodity prices and ongoing supply disruptions. Failed talks between Russia and Ukraine puts corn supplies under pressure. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Falling In The Run-Up To US Inflation Data Release, NGAS Prices Fall But Remain Elevated, Coffee Prices  Brent Crude prices fall for third session Brent crude oil futures prices have fallen on Monday for their third session as investors have been monitoring the covid situation in China and have remained concerned that rising inflation may hinder growth and negatively impact the demand for oil. Major cities in China are fighting rising covid-19 cases with officials warning of “ferocious” Covid spread in Beijing. In addition, U.S inflation hit a 40-year high of 8.6% last month, which increases the likelihood of more aggressive interest rate hikes from the FED. On Saturday US Fuel prices went above $5 per gallon, extending the surge in fuel costs that is driving rising inflation. Goldman Sachs indicated on Friday that energy prices needed to increase further before achieving a destruction in demand that is sufficient for market rebalancing. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices reaches its lowest level in 4 weeks Investors' worries around the global economic outlook and a more hawkish attitude from the Federal Reserve have been strengthening, pushing silver prices down to its lowest level in four weeks. The global economic outlook remains dim due to the rising borrowing costs, the war in Ukraine, high commodity prices and ongoing supply disruptions. The Fed is due to continue tightening its monetary policy during the coming week after US inflation reached 41-year highs during May, in addition the ECB and RBA have also chosen a more hawkish path as inflation shows no signs of peaking. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn Prices rising amidst concerns around supply. Corn prices reached nearly eight week highs in the wake of new concerns around grain supplies. Talks failed between two of the major corn suppliers, Russia and the Ukraine around the resuming of Ukrainian exports despite the Turkish efforts to negotiate a safe passage for grain stuck at the Black Sea Ports. Russian President Putin said free shipment depended on an end to sanctions on Russia. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Summary: The international oil benchmark fell around 6% on Friday. Silver fell below the $22 per-ounce mark on Friday, closing at its lowest level since June 2020. Failed negotiations between Russia and the Ukraine. Read next: Coffee Prices Rising Amidst Tight Supply Concerns, WTI Oil Facing Its First Weekly Decline Since Mid-April, Platinum Prices At 6 Week Low  Brent Crude Oil prices remain supported Brent Crude Oil prices fell to almost 5 week lows on Monday amidst concerns around slowing global economic growth and fuel demand which outweighed expectations of higher near-term consumption and ongoing supply issues. The international oil benchmark fell around 6% on Friday amidst concerns of global economic fallouts from higher interest rates shook financial markets. U.S Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm warned markets of a “continued upward pull on demand” over the weekend, and of the likelihood of high gasoline prices continuing. Crude prices have been supported by the war in the Ukraine, civil unrest in Libya and OPEC’s failure to pump more oil. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices close below $22 per-ounce Silver fell below the $22 per-ounce mark on Friday, closing at its lowest level since June 2020, in the wake of bets of more aggressive monetary policy tightening by central banks steered investors away from the non-yield metal. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn prices rising amidst new concerns around supply Corn prices rose to 4 week highs in mid-June amidst new concerns around grain supplies. Talks between Russia and the Ukraine, two of the largest grain exporters, around resuming Ukrainian exports failed, despite Turkish efforts to negotiate a safe corridor for the grain stuck at Black Sea ports. Meanwhile, Brazil and Beijing reached an agreement after years of negotiation to start corn exports from Brazil to China. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Summary: G7 leaders discussed a price cap on Russian oil. Fears of a recession eased in the wake of China’s easing of lockdown restrictions and testing measures. Recession prospects weighing on demand for corn. Read next: Rising Interest Rates Are Inhibiting The Demand For Gold And Silver, Concerns Around A Recession Are Driving Brent Crude Oil Prices Down  Prospects of tighter supply of Brent Crude oil weighed on markets Brent Crude prices are sitting at around $113 on Monday as recession fears put downward pressure on Brent prices. In addition, traders are monitoring any news from the G7 summit which is taking place in Germany ahead of talks between the US and Iran to revive the nuclear deal made in 2015. G7 leaders discussed a price cap on Russian oil, which will work through the imposition of restrictions on both shipping and insurance and allowing only the transportation of Russian crude and petroleum products that are sold below an agreed threshold. However, the thought of even more supply tightness weighed on the market, with the G7 leaders still determined to find ways to cut Russia's war against Ukraine Funding. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices bounce back Silver prices bounced back somewhat on Monday as fears of a recession eased in the wake of China’s easing of lockdown restrictions and testing measures. However, silver prices remain under threat from further monetary policy tightening, with both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to raise interest rates further. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Prices Corn Prices at 2 week lows Corn is trading at 2 week lows on Monday, as favourable weather and weaker demand prospects weighed on prices, temporarily turning the attention away from war disruptions at Black Sea Ports. Fears of demand come from recession prospects. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com

Summary: Concerns around tight Brent supplies outweighed concerns around a global recession dampening demand. Silver prices falling in the wake of an aggressive Fed. Traders weighed weak demand and favourable weather prospects against fears of tight supplies. Read more: Gold Futures Fell To Near 7 Week Lows, Investors Weighing Supply v Demand For WTI Crude, Platinum Prices  Brent Crude Oil prices are up on Monday Brent crude oil prices are up on Monday as concerns around tight supplies outweighed concerns around a global recession dampening demand. A Reuters survey showed that output from 10 OPEC members fell during June. In addition, exports from Libya also declined below expected levels and Norway's daily output is expected to decline due to a planned strike by Norwegian energy sector workers. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Silver prices reaching 2 year lows Silver prices have been consistently declining to prices not seen since July of 2020, as they close in toward the $20 per-ounce mark. The price declines come in the wake of aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve to try to control high inflation levels which caused investors to turn away from the non-yielding metal. The Fed has reiterated their commitment to fighting inflation, setting expectations for a back-to-back 75 bps interest rate hike in July. Silver Sept ‘22 Futures Price Chart Investors weighing weak demand and favourable weather against tight supply fears Corn prices hovered around $7.5 per bushel as traders weighed weak demand and favourable weather prospects against fears of tight supplies. More corn crop has been planted than the March recordings, the crop flourished in its early stages of development after a late start to planting, this is due to the wet and cool conditions around most of the Midwest. Meanwhile, traders are watching the weather forecasts for the coming weeks as the corn enters its pollination phase which will determine the yields during the harvest that starts in September. At the same time, aggressive monetary tightening is raising fears of economic slowdown and demand destruction is causing concerns around demand for the grain. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com

Summary: Aggressive Fed turning investors away from silver Lower demand prospects outweigh tight supply concerns for WTI Crude Oil. Commodity traders are watching weather in top growing corn regions. Read next: Platinum Prices Drop In The Wake Of Slower Demand Prospects, RBOB Gasoline Prices, Wheat Prices Below Pre-Russian Invasion Levels  Silver Prices hitting July 2020 lows. Silver prices are staying below the $20 mark per ounce, a level that has not been seen since July 2020. The price decline comes in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s committing to aggressive monetary policy tightening and raising interest rates further, this move causes investors to short the non-yielding metal. The Fed has set markt expectations for back-to-back 75 bps rate hikes in July. This move has Put a floor under prices where lingering concerns about slowing economic growth, mainly in Europe, as surging gas prices threaten the outlook for the Euro bloc. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Lower demand prospects outweigh tight supply concerns for WTI Crude Oil The price of crude futures are expected to close low on Friday as concerns around a global recession and its impact on the demand for crude oil outweighs the concerns around tight-supplies. The US oil benchmark has declined by 5% this week, tracking a broader decline in commodity markets in the wake of restrictive monetary policy among major economies threatening a global recession. Crude prices are still up 35% this year as global economic recovery coincided with Russia’s invasion in the Ukraine. WTI Crude Aug Futures Price Chart Corn prices Corn futures prices are currently hovering as the market weighs up favourable weather conditions and weak demand over tighter supply prospects. Weather conditions in top corn growing regions are being watched closely by traders. On the demand side, the combination of weak economic global data and aggressive monetary tightening from central banks is raising fears of a economic slowdown. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Summary: Fears of a global recession are expected to dampen energy demand. Aggressive Fed prospects driving silver demand down. Hot weather conditions affecting corn growing prospects. Read next: Aggressive Fed Increases The Opportunity Cost OF Holding Silver, WTI Crude Oil Prices, Corn: Traders Weigh Weak Demand & Tight Supply  Concerns around demand driving Brent Crude Oil Prices down Brent Crude Oil futures fell during Monday trading after posting a loss last week in volatile trading in the wake of fears around a global recession and new COVID 19 virus restrictions in China, both of which outweighed fears around supply. Fears of a global recession are expected to dampen energy demand and continue to rule over market sentiment as major central banks continue to fight inflation through aggressive monetary policy interest rate hikes. In addition, a new omicron variant of COVID-19 has been discovered in Shanghai and has heightened fears of further restrictions. At the same time, market participants remain unsure about the western nations plans to cap Russian oil prices as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that further sanctions could lead to "catastrophic" consequences within the global energy market. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver prices hover around $20 per ounce Silver prices are still sitting around the $20 per ounce mark, a level that has not been seen since July 2020. The price drop comes in the wake of stronger bets of a more aggressive Federal Reserve to increase interest rates in an attempt to reign in sky-high inflation. Silver is normally used as a hedge against inflation, however as treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding silver rises. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn futures rose to 8-week highs Corn Futures have risen on Monday to 8-week highs and not far from the 10 year high hit in April. The price rose in the wake of concerns around tighter supplies amid an already short supply market that has been caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. Hot weather conditions in the US and European growing belt have nullified the price drop during the last trading week. At the same time, Chinese import demand also increased. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-21 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   There has been significant volatility in the silver market this year, but one Canadian bank believes the price action could get much worse. Since its peak in late February, silver prices have declined significantly. Despite the fact that silver outperformed gold last month, TD Securities analysts expect another down move. On Wednesday, the Canadian bank announced that it was taking a tactical short position in silver, expecting prices to drop to $18 an ounce over the next two months. Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TDS and author of the note, said silver continues to face headwinds. Growing fears of a global recession dampen industrial demand for silver; at the same time, its role as a monetary metal has diminished as central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, continue to raise interest rates. At the same time, TDS expects gold prices to push down the value of silver as the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates aggressively. Ghali added that the annual central bank symposium, which will be held next week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, could be a catalyst for lower gold and silver prices. Markets are split roughly 50/50 depending on how much the US Central Bank raises interest rates next month. By 50 basis points or 75 basis points. On precious metals, the TDS was bearish as interest rates rose and the US dollar hit a 20-year high. In July, the bank announced a tactical short position in gold.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319389

XAGUSD seems to be forming a correction wave b of the cycle degree, which is part of a large zigzag. Apparently, correction b is a primary triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ. The first four parts of it have already been fully completed, now we see the construction of the last wave Ⓩ. Most likely, the wave Ⓩ will be an intermediate triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z). It seems that the formation of the actionary intermediate wave (Y) has come to an end, it has taken the form of a double zigzag W-X-Y. Thus, now we see growth in the intermediate intervening wave (X). It can be assumed that the wave (X) will end in the form of a minor double zigzag W-X-Y near 21.169. At that level, it will be at 50% along the Fibonacci lines of sub-wave (Y). Alternatively, it is assumed that the bearish primary wave Ⓩ may end in the form of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y). Most likely, the market is now in the final part of the actionary wave (Y), or rather in its final minor sub-wave C. Wave C may end in the form of an impulse consisting of minute sub-waves. To complete this impulse, a final sub-wave ⓥ is needed. The end of the specified impulse is possible near 12.473. At that level, primary wave Ⓩ will be at 200% of actionary wave Ⓨ.

Silver made a new corrective low at 17.56 and needs to clear minor resistance at 19.43 and more importantly resistance at 20.10 to confirm that the corrective decline from 30.00 finally has completed and the impulsive rally towards 30.00 and ultimately 50.00 is unfolding. That said, we also need to acknowledge that as long as resistance at 19.43 holds firm, a new low below 17.56 can't be excluded, but the potential downside should be pretty limited from here.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-09-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291514

Silver is about to make a new low for the decline from 30.00. However, with gold making new lows, we need to be prepared for the possibility of this being the case for silver too. Our preferred count remains that a long-term bottom was found at 17.56 and a new impulsive rally is in its infancy for a new rally towards 30.00 and ultimately towards the all-time high at 50.00 too. That said, the break lower in gold could lead and take silver lower too. Besides, a break below minor support at 17.85 will be the first good indication that silver will break lower towards the next strong support seen near 16.00.     Relevance up to 07:00 2022-09-19 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293039

Silver drifts lower for the second straight day and drops to a fresh weekly low. Break below 50 DMA and the $19.00 mark supports prospects for further losses. A breakout through a descending trend-line is needed to negate the negative bias. Silver remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Friday and drops to a fresh weekly low during the first half of the European session. The white metal is currently trading just below the $19.00 mark, down over 1% for the day. Looking at the broader picture, the recent recovery from over a two-year low, the $17.55 area faltered near a descending trend-line resistance earlier this week. A subsequent slide below the 50-day SMA and the $19.00 round figure suggests that the corrective bounce might have already run out of steam. Moreover, technical indicators on the daily chart, so far, have been struggling to gain any meaningful traction and are placed in negative territory. This further adds credence to the near-term bearish outlook and supports prospects for some meaningful near-term depreciating move for the XAG/USD. From current levels, the $18.45-$18.40 region could act as strong immediate support. A convincing break below will make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerating the fall towards the $18.00 mark. Bears might eventually aim to challenge the YTD low, around the $17.55 area touched earlier this month. On the flip side, momentum back above the $19.00 mark now seems to confront resistance near the $19.25 region (50 DMA). Sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering rally and has the potential to lift the XAG/USD towards the next relevant hurdle, around the $19.65-$19.75 supply zone. The latter now coincides with a descending trend-line barrier extending from May monthly swing high. This is closely followed by the $20.00 psychological mark, which if cleared decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for some meaningful appreciating move.  Silver daily chart

Repeated failures near a descending trend-line warrant some caution for bulls. Strength beyond the $20.00 mark is needed to support prospects for further gains. Silver struggles to capitalize on Friday's goodish rebound from a one-week low and meets with a fresh supply on the first day of a new week. The white metal maintains its offered tone through the first half of the European session and is currently placed near the daily low, around the $19.30 region. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD, so far, has been struggling to make it through a descending trend-line resistance extending from the May swing high. Repeated failures near the said barrier suggest that the recent recovery from over a two-year low, the $17.55 area might have already run out of steam. That said, technical indicators on the daily chart are holding with a mild positive bias and support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying at lower levels. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $19.00 mark before positioning for any further depreciating move. The next relevant support is pegged near Friday's swing low, around the $18.80-$18.75 region, which if broken decisively will shift the near-term bias back in favour of bearish traders. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the fall to the $18.45-$18.40 intermediate support en route to the $18.00 round-figure mark. On the flip side, the aforementioned descending trend-line, currently around the $19.85 region, might continue to act as an immediate strong barrier. This is closely followed by the $20.00 psychological mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter is needed to confirm a near-term bullish breakout and additional gains. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the XAG/USD to the 100-day SMA, near the $20.30 area. The momentum could further get extended towards the $20.50 region, above which spot prices could aim to reclaim the $21.00 round-figure mark before eventually climbing further towards the $21.50 area. Silver daily chart

XAGUSD seems to be forming a correction wave b of the cycle degree, which is part of the global zigzag It is assumed that the correction b is a primary triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ. The first four parts of it have already been fully completed, now we see the construction of the last wave Ⓩ. Most likely, the wave Ⓩ will be an intermediate triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z). In this pattern, we now see growth in the intermediate intervening wave (X). We can assume that the wave (X) will end in the form of a minor double zigzag W-X-Y to 20.054. At that level, it will be at 50% along the Fibonacci lines of sub-wave (Y). After reaching this level, we could expect a fall in the intermediate wave (Z) to 15.055. At the specified level, sub-waves (Z) and (Y) will be equal. However, the bearish primary wave Ⓩ could have already completely ended in the form of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y), and with it the entire correction b. Thus, in the last section of the chart, we can notice the initial part of the bullish wave c of the cycle degree. It is assumed that it will take the form of an impulse ①-②-③-④-⑤, as shown in the chart. Most likely, the first half of the actionary impulse wave will end near the maximum of 26.978, which is marked by the primary intervening wave Ⓧ, it is not visible on this marking.

Technical analysis: Silver has been trading upside in the background after the yesterday's FOMC but I found big fake breakout to the upside and potential for the downside movement. Trading recommendation: Due to the fake breakout of the bigger triangle in the background, I see potential for the further drop. Watch for the potential selling opportunities on the upside extremes and intraday rallies. Downside objectives are set at the price of 18.78 and 18.55. MACD oscillator is showing neutral condition, which is sign prior to the bigger breakout. Key resistance is set at the price of $20.00 Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293786

Technical analysis: Silver has been trading downside this as I expected. There is the potential for the bigger breakdown and lower prices. Trading recommendation: Due to the fake breakout of the triangle in the background and strong reversal, I see potential for further drop. Watch for the potential selling opportunities on the intraday rallies with the downside objectives at the price of $18.78 and $18.53. Stochastic oscillator is fresh bear cross, which is another sign for the downside movement. Key resistance is set at the price of $20  

Technical analysis: Silver has been trading downside as I expected and the price has reached two downside objectives at $18.80 and $18.50. Anyway, I still see potential for further drop towards the third target. Trading recommendation: Due to the strong downside pressure in the background and breakout of the trend line, I see potential for further drop. Watch for the potential selling opportunities on the intraday rallies with the next downside objective at the price of $18.00. MACD oscillator is showing downside reading, which is good sign for further downside movement. Short-term resistance is set at the price of $19.75   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294152

Over the weekend, the rate of ether and bitcoin traded quite calmly within the side channel. However, there is still not enough optimism about a larger upward correction of these trading instruments. But before we talk about the technical picture, I would like to say a few words about the recent advice of the well-loved Robert Kiyosaki—the famous author of the bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad." Kiyosaki recently said that fake money has come to an "end" and gave three tips to help investors succeed in market crashes. Kiyosaki tweeted why, in his opinion, the end of "fake" money has come. "End is here. Called Jerry Williams, my trusted gold and silver dealer. He said: 'I can't get gold or silver coins. The mint will not sell me anymore.' To me, this means the end of fake $ is here." The well-known author echoed his recent recommendation: "As stated in earlier tweet silver going to $100 to $500." His advice was immediately followed by another statement in which he claimed that gold is expensive, calling silver the best investment value to date. Kiyosaki's reasoning is very simple: when President Richard Nixon decoupled the US dollar from its peg to gold, the so-called gold standard, in 1971, the US dollar simply became fake money. The author also recalled three lessons of investing: 1: Your home is not an asset. 2: People who save money are losers. 3: The rich don't work for dollars. Last week, Kiyosaki urged people to "invest in real money," naming bitcoin, gold and silver. He stressed that the Federal Reserve is now doing everything to destroy the U.S. economy amid the interest rate hikes. Kiyosaki urged subscribers to buy cryptocurrency now, ahead of the biggest crash in world history. The well-known author has been claiming for months that he is waiting for the price of the cryptocurrency to bottom out before entering. As for today's technical picture of bitcoin, as I noted above, nothing much has changed since the weekend. The focus is now on the immediate resistance of $19,000, the return of which is "like air" needed in the near future. If this area is broken, you can see a push up to $19,520 and then to $20,000. To build a larger upward trend, it is necessary to break above the resistance of $20,540 and $21,140. If the pressure on Bitcoin returns, and most likely it will, the bulls should make every effort to protect the $18,600 support that has already been tested several times. Its breakout will quickly push the trading instrument back to $18,100 and open the way to update the $17,580 level. Ethereum remains above $1,270 after the recent crash that occurred immediately after the switch to PoS. The most important task for buyers in the current environment is to get back under control of the $1,350 resistance, which will be quite difficult to get above. Its breakdown will lead to stabilization of the market direction and a slight correction to the $1,440 area. The further target will be the $1,504 and $1,550 areas. If the pressure on the trading instrument continues and the rather important $1,270 support is broken, this will push the Ethereum to $1,210 and $1,150, where the big players will again appear in the market. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322638

Technical analysis: Silver has been trading upside during the Asia session and the price tested the level of $18.75. Anyway, I see potential for the downside movement due to strong downside cycle. Trading recommendation: Due to the strong downside momentum in the background, I see potential for further downside movement. Watch for the potential selling opportunities in case of the breakout of the mini upside channel. Downside objective is set at the price of $18.00. Oscillator is showing overbought condition and fresh bear cross, which is good sign for further downside movement. Resistance is set at the price of $19.00   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294376

Technical analysis: Silver has been trading downside as I expected and the price almost reached my my downside objective at $17.96. Anyway, I still see potential for further drop due to strong downside momentum Trading recommendation: Due to the strong downside pressure in the background and rejection of the supply trend-line, I see potential for further downside movement. Watch for the potential selling opportunities on the intraday rallies with the downside objectives at the price of $17.96 and $17.54 MACD oscillator is showing fresh downside momentum, which is strong sign that sellers are in control. Resistance is set at the price of $18.67   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294548

Technical analysis: Gold has been trading upside in the background and I found breakout of the supply trend-line and recent swing highs, which is good sign for further rally. Trading recommendation: Due to the strong upside momentum yesterday on Gold, I see potential for further upside movement. Watch for the potential buying opportunities on the intraday dips with the key support at $1.640 Upside objective is set at the price of $1.661 Stochastic oscillator is showing bullish divergence and extreme downside condition, which is good sign for further rally.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294789

Gold struggles to maintain a bullish momentum due to rising interest rates. This is why BMO Capital Markets lowered its price forecast for the next two years, saying the metal will fall 6% to $1,649 an ounce in 2023 and be down 4% to $1,615 an ounce in 2024. On the bright side, the bank's long-term outlook remains at $1,400 per ounce. It is, however, is even more pessimistic about silver, remarking that prices will average around $19.9 an ounce in 2023 and around $21.4 an ounce in 2024. The former is down 11% from previous forecasts, while the latter is 3% lower. In the long term, the bank expects silver to be around $20. Analysts comment that growing recession fears will continue to weigh on silver over the next two years, but in the long term the picture remains optimistic because growing demand for solar energy will provide long-term support for the metal. For gold, even though the outlook is lower, there is no complete decrease in price, and the rising economic uncertainty provides some support. With regards to other commodity assets, analysts are negative, especially on tin, saying that it will fall by 29% to $10.21 a pound next year. They are optimistic about uranium though, raising the forecast by 9% to $52 a pound next year.   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323006

Silver prolongs its upward trajectory and climbs to over a one-week high on Monday. Bulls still seem to struggle to make it through a multi-month-old descending trend line. Sustained break below the $18.35 area will expose the YTD low touched in September. Silver builds on last week's bounce from sub-$18.00 levels and gains some follow-through traction for the second successive day on Monday. This also marks the fourth day of a positive move in the previous five and lifts the white metal to over a one-week high, around mid-$19.00s during the early part of the European session. Bulls, however, still seem to struggle to make it through a downward sloping trend-line extending from May swing high. The said barrier, around the $19.50 region, should now act as a pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for additional gains and allow the XAG/USD to aim to reclaim the $20.00 psychological mark. The latter coincides with the 100-day SMA, above which the XAG/USD could accelerate the move towards the $20.50 intermediate resistance en route to the $21.00 round-figure mark. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for an extension of the momentum towards the next relevant hurdle near the $21.50-$21.55 horizontal zone. On the flip side, the $19.00 mark could act as immediate support ahead of the $18.85-$18.80 zone and the $18.35 area. Failure to defend the said support levels will shift the bias in favour of bears and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to breaking below the $18.00 mark and test the YTD low, around the $17.55 region touched in September. Silver daily chart

Crypto Industry News: "Buy more Bitcoin, gold and silver," calls known from numerous publications, especially the famous bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" author and investor Robert Kiyosaki. In one of his last tweets, he spoke about the upcoming investment opportunity. In his opinion, if the FED does not change the current rate and continues to raise interest rates, and thus - strengthens the position of the US dollar - it will be a great opportunity to take advantage of the promotion on Bitcoin, gold and silver. Kiyosaki ensures that anyone who buys more Bitcoin, gold and silver will enjoy solid profits in the moment that must come sometime, such as a 180-degree change in FED policy, i.e. lowering interest rates. According to Robert, this could happen as early as January 2023 - then the US dollar could "crash (against the rocks)", as was the case with the British pound. As of May 2020, Kiyosaki has been systematically expressing his enthusiasm for assets that are not directly managed by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. Interestingly, his support for the uncontrolled Bitcoin by the Fed continues despite the fact that he still considers it an asset "of no real value." Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen moving up after the successful test of the local short-term trend line dynamic support around $18,980. Only a sustained breakout above the levels of $20,221 - $20,580 would change the outlook to more bullish, however after the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the level of $20,374, the odds for a breakout higher are very low. The market conditions on the H4 time frame are positive, momentum is strong and well above the level of fifty. The nearest technical support is seen at $19,096 and $19,256. The swing low is seen at the level of $18,150. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $19,869 WR2 - $19,490 WR1 - $19,335 Weekly Pivot - $19,190 WS1 - $18,955 WS2 - $18,731 WS3 - $18,351 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295320

Silver extends the overnight breakout momentum and climbs to the $21.00 neighbourhood. The set-up favours bulls and supports prospects for an extension of the appreciating move. Any meaningful corrective slide would be seen as a buying opportunity and remains limited. Silver builds on the previous day's strong move up and gains traction for the third successive day on Tuesday. This also marks the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six and lifts the white metal to the $21.00 mark, or its highest level since late June during the early European session. The overnight sustained breakout through a nearly four-month-old descending trend-line resistance and the $20.00 psychological mark, or the 100-day SMA was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Given that technical indicators on the daily chart are still far from being in the overbought zone, the set-up supports prospects for an extension of the appreciating move for the XAG/USD. Some follow-through buying beyond the $21.00 round figure will reaffirm the positive outlook and allow bulls to challenge the very important 200-day SMA. The latter is currently pegged just ahead of the $22.00 mark, above which the XAG/USD could climb towards the next relevant resistance near the $22.40 region. The momentum could further get extended towards the $23.00 round-figure mark. On the flip side, the $20.80-$20.75 zone now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any subsequent pullback is more likely to attract fresh buying and remain limited near the $20.00 mark, or the 100-day SMA. This is followed by the descending trend-line resistance breakout point, around the $19.55 region, which should now act as a strong base for the XAG/USD and a key pivotal point. Silver daily chart

Summary:  Today we look at the market celebrating a weak September US ISM Manufacturing data point taking long US treasury yields lower, with noise from the commentariat suggesting a Fed pivot may be near possibly adding energy to the squeeze on equity market bears yesterday. At the same time we note further hawkish noise from key Fed officials, include Vice Chair Williams. Elsewhere, we look at financial conditions, unusual behaviour in sectors that normally would have performed better yesterday, possibly on Tesla's very bad day. Crude oil, a huge surge in silver, gold pushing on resistance and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-4-2022-04102022

American businessman Robert Kiyosaki said it's time to use the aggressive stance of the Federal Reserve to buy more gold, silver and bitcoin. This is because further rate hikes will strengthen dollar, which will lead to lower prices for the three assets. And once the Fed shifts to a softer policy, prices will soar, giving huge profit. Kiyosaki added that the strength of dollar is unlikely to last long, especially since it traded near 20-year highs for the entire third quarter. In fact, in his recent tweet, Kiyosaki wrote that dollar will collapse by January 2023 after the Fed's turnaround. He also said that silver will jump to $100, then to $500 within this decade. The reason is that stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs and real estate are crashing, which pushes silver to trade around $20, allowing everyone to afford the metal. He mentioned the gold-to-silver ratio as well, stating that in the 20th century the ratio was 47:1, meaning that it took 47 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. Now, this ratio is about 83:1. With this, Kiyosaki explained that investors should protect their portfolios with hard assets, such as gold and silver, as the biggest crash in history unfolds.   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323322

Technical analysis: Silver has 2 big up days in the background and market went way to fast way to far, which can open opportunity for the reversion to the mean to the downside. Trading recommendation: Due to extreme upside condition on the Silver, I see potential for the downside movement. Watch for the potential selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside objectives at 19346 and 19.20. Stochastic oscillator had 3 pushes up in the background, which is good sign for further downside movement. Key resistance is set at the price of 21.18 Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295533

Silver struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday gains to the $21.00 neighbourhood. The technical set-up favours bulls and supports prospects for some meaningful upside. Dips towards the 100 DMA could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited. Silver builds on the previous day's goodish bounce from sub-$20.00 levels and edges higher during the first half of trading on Thursday. The uptick, however, falters ahead of the $21.00 round figure during the early European session, forcing spot prices to surrender modest intraday gains. From a technical perspective, this week's sustained breakout through a nearly four-month-old descending trend-line resistance and the 100-day SMA favours bullish traders. The positive outlook is reinforced by bullish technical indicators on the daily chart, which are still far from being in the overbought territory. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a move back above the $21.00 mark before positioning for any further appreciating move. The XAG/USD might then aim to test the very important 200-day SMA, around the $21.90 area. Some follow-through buying beyond the $22.00 level should pave the way for further gains. The XAG/USD could then accelerate the momentum and climb towards the next relevant resistance near the $22.40 region. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift spot prices towards the $23.00 round-figure mark. On the flip side, the $20.00 psychological mark, or the 100-day SMA, now seems to have emerged as immediate strong support. This is followed by the descending trend-line resistance breakout point, around the $19.55 region. The latter coincides with the 50-day SMA and should now act as a strong base for the XAG/USD. Silver daily chart

Silver edges higher on Thursday, though lacks any follow-through buying. The set-up favours bullish traders and supports prospects for further gains. Any fall towards the $20.00 mark could still be seen as a buying opportunity. Silver sticks to a mildly positive bias through the first half of trading on Thursday and is currently placed around the $20.75-$20.80 region, up over 0.40% for the day. Given the recent breakout through a multi-month-old descending trend-line hurdle and a sustained move beyond the 100-day SMA, the bias remains tilted in favour of bullish traders. The latter helped limit the intra-week pullback from the highest level since late June and the subsequent bounce adds credence to the near-term positive outlook. Furthermore, technical indicators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the bullish territory and are still far from being in the overbought zone. This, in turn, supports prospects for an extension of the recent rally from sub-$18.00 levels and a move back above the $21.00 mark, towards retesting the monthly top near the $21.25 region. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the XAG/USD towards a technically significant 200-day SMA, currently just ahead of the $22.00 round figure. The said handle should act as a pivotal point for short-term traders, which if cleared decisively would set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move. On the flip side, the overnight swing low, around the $20.35 region, might now protect the immediate downside ahead of the $20.00 mark (100 DMA). Any further decline could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the descending trend-line resistance breakout point, around the $19.55 area, coinciding with the 50-day SMA. Silver daily chart  

Silver extends its recent retracement slide from a multi-week high touched last Tuesday. A convincing break below the $19.50 support should pave the way for additional losses. A sustained strength beyond the $20.40 region is needed to negate any bearish outlook. Silver remains under some selling pressure on Monday and extends last week's pullback from the $21.25 area or the highest level since late June. The white metal maintains its offered tone through the early part of the European session and drops to a one-week low, around the $19.70-$19.65 region in the last hour. The XAG/USD is currently placed just below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent recovery from the YTD low, though has managed to hold above the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The latter, currently around the mid-$19.00s should now act as a key pivotal point. A sustained break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for additional losses. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the XAG/USD towards the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $19.20 region. This is closely followed by the $19.00 mark, which if broken decisively will suggest that the corrective bounce has run out of steam and pave the way for additional losses. Spot prices could then accelerate the fall towards the $18.60 intermediate support en route to the $18.35 region and the $18.00 round figure. On the flip side, the $20.00 psychological mark, coincides with the 38.2% Fibo. level, now seems to keep a lid on any intraday move-up. Any subsequent move up could attract some sellers and remain capped near the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the $20.40 region. Sustained strength beyond will negate any near-term negative bias and lift the XAG/USD to the $20.80-$20.85 area en route to the $21.00 mark and the monthly high, around the $21.25 region. Silver 4-hour chart  

Acceptance below the $19.60-$19.55 confluence supports prospects for additional losses. Weakness below the 61.8% Fibo., around the $19.30 region will reaffirm the negative bias. Silver extends its recent pullback from the highest level since late June touched last week and remains under some selling pressure for the third straight day on Tuesday. This also marks the fourth day of a negative move in the previous five and drags the white metal to over a one-week low, around the $19.35 region during the early European session. From a technical perspective, weakness below the $19.60-$19.55 confluence could be seen as a trigger for bearish traders. The said support breakpoint comprises the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent recovery from the YTD low and the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The breakdown, in turn, supports prospects for further losses. Hence, a subsequent fall towards 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $19.30 region, en route to the next relevant support near the $19.00 mark, remains a distinct possibility. Some follow-through selling will pave the way for a slide towards the $18.60 area before the XAG/USD eventually drops to the $18.35 area and then to the $18.00 round figure. On the flip side, recovery back above the $19.60-$19.55 confluence has the potential to lift spot prices back towards the $20.00 psychological mark, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibo. level. Any further move up could attract some sellers near the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the $20.40 region, which should cap the upside for the XAG/USD, at least for now. Sustained strength beyond will negate any near-term negative bias and allow the XAG/USD to climb to the $20.80-$20.85 area en route to the $21.00 mark and the monthly high, around the $21.25 region. Silver 4-hour chart

Silver attracts some buying near the $19.00 mark, or over a one-week low touched this Wednesday. The bearish technical setup suggests that the attempted bounce runs the risk of fizzling out quickly. Traders might wait for a sustained break below the $19.00 mark before placing fresh bearish bets. Silver finds some support near the $19.00 mark and stages a modest recovery from over a one-week low touched earlier this Wednesday. The uptick allows the white metal to snap a three-day losing streak and stall its recent sharp pullback from the $21.25 area, or the highest level since late June. From a technical perspective, any subsequent move up is likely to confront stiff resistance near the $19.55-$19.60 confluence support breakpoint. The said region comprises the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent recovery from the YTD low and the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. This, in turn, should act as a pivotal point and help determine the near-term trajectory for the XAG/USD. A convincing break through the aforementioned barrier will suggest that the recent downfall has run its course and lift spot prices back towards the $20.00 psychological mark. The latter coincides with 38.2% Fibo. level, above which the XAG/USD could climb the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the $20.40 area. The momentum could further get extended towards reclaiming the $21.00 round-figure mark. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart have just started drifting into the negative territory and maintain their bearish bias on the 4-hour chart. The set-up supports prospects for further losses, through sustained weakness below the $19.00 mark is needed to reaffirm the outlook. The XAG/USD might then slide to the $18.60 zone before dropping to the $18.35 area and the $18.00 round figure. Silver 4-hour chart

The decline in gold prices and the pronounced bearish sentiment have had a strong impact on the mining sector. However, according to one market analyst, now is the best time for investors to find long-term value. Michael Gentile, director and strategic adviser at Radisson Mining Resources, said sentiment in the junior mining sector is worse than it was in 2015, when valuations fell to historic lows. But he added that this is when investors want to enter the market. Although gold and silver prices may still decline, Gentile is confident that the precious metals market is bottoming out, so in the next three to five years, the gold market is poised for significant growth. He also noted that rising US interest rates, which have pushed the dollar to a 20-year high, are starting to push the global economy to a breaking point as major economies are forced to interview their domestic currency and bond markets. "I think the UK intervention was an important signal for the market," he said. "If we don't get closer to the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle, then we could see the end of the tunnel, and that's positive for gold." As for what investors should look for in the mining sector, Gentile said he is looking for companies with good funding and projects.   Relevance up to 11:00 2022-10-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324215

Silver price snaps five-day losing streak while bouncing off fortnight low. MACD, RSI suggest further recovery but the key SMAs challenge upside momentum. Six-week-old support line lures the bears unless the quote rises past $19.50. Silver price (XAG/USD) prints the first daily gain in six while keeping the previous day’s rebound near $19.00 during early Friday morning in Europe. In doing so, the bright metal seesaws around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of September-October upside, recently retreating from the intraday high. It’s worth noting that the impending bull cross on the MACD and the RSI’s latest recovery from the oversold territory keeps the buyers hopeful. However, the 200-SMA and the 100-SMA challenge the metal’s short-term upside near $19.15 and $19.50 respectively. Even if the XAG/USD rises past $19.50, the bulls will have a tough task crossing a one-month-old resistance area between $19.95 and $20.00. Meanwhile, pullback moves may initially aim for the latest swing low surrounding $18.45 ahead of challenging an upward-sloping support line from September 01, close to $18.20. Following that, $17.95 and the previous monthly low of $17.56 should lure the silver bear. To sum up, XAG/USD remains on the bear’s table even if the prices witness a corrective bounce of late. Silver: Four-hour chart Trend: Further weakness expected

Silver attracts some buying on Monday and snaps a six-day losing streak to a two-week low. Bearish oscillators on short-term charts warrant caution before positioning for further gains. Sustained strength beyond the $20.00 mark is needed to negate the near-term negative bias. Silver gains some positive traction on the first day of a new week and moves away from over a two-week low, around the $18.00 mark touched on Friday. The white metal maintains its bid tone heading into the European session and is currently flirting with the daily peak, near the $18.50-$18.45 region. The XAG/USD, for now, seems to have snapped six straight days of a losing streak and stalled its recent sharp rejection slide from the 200-day EMA, or its highest level since late June. Any subsequent move up, however, is likely to confront stiff resistance near the $18.90-$19.00 area, which should act as a pivotal point for intraday traders. Sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD back towards the $19.70-$19.80 supply zone. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart have just started drifting into negative territory. Moreover, bearish technical indicators on the 4-hour chart warrants caution before positioning for further gains. That said, some follow-through buying beyond the $20.00 psychological mark will negate any near-term negative outlook and pace the way for a further near-term appreciating move. The XAG/USD might then climb to the $20.50 intermediate resistance en route to the $21.00 round figure and the 200-day EMA, currently around the $21.15 region. On the flip side, the $18.00 mark now seems to have emerged as immediate strong support, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The next relevant support is pegged near the YTD low, around the $17.55 area touched in September, below which the XAG/USD could slide to test the $17.00 round figure. Silver daily chart

Silver extends the overnight retracement slide from the $19.00 neighbourhood. The technical setup favours bears and supports prospects for additional losses. A sustained move beyond the $19.00 mark is needed to negate the negative bias. Silver comes under fresh selling pressure on Wednesday and extends the previous day's modest pullback from the vicinity of the $19.00 mark. The white metal remains on the defensive through the first half of the European session and is currently flirting with the daily low, around mid-$18.00s. From a technical perspective, the recent bounce from a nearly three-week low touched last Friday faces rejection near the 100-hour EMA. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in the bearish territory and have again started gaining negative traction on the 1-hour chart. This, in turn, supports prospects for an extension of the intraday depreciating move. Hence, a subsequent slide back towards challenging a pivotal support, around the $18.00 mark, remains a distinct possibility. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the XAG/USD back towards the YTD low, around the $17.55 area. Spot prices could eventually drop to the next relevant support near the $17.00 round figure. On the flip side, the 100-hour SMA, around the $18.90-$19.00 area, might act as an immediate hurdle.  A sustained move beyond might trigger a short-covering rally and lift XAG/USD towards the $19.70-$19.80 supply zone en route to the $20.00 psychological mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point for bulls, which if cleared should pave the way for further gains. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the XAG/USD further beyond the $20.50 intermediate resistance, towards reclaiming the $21.00, which coincides with the 200-day EMA. Silver 1-hour chart  

Silver catches fresh bids on Thursday and pushes through the 100-hour EMA resistance. Some follow-through buying beyond the weekly high will set the stage for further gains. A convincing break below the $18.00 pivotal support will pave the way for further losses. Silver attracts some buying near the $18.25-$18.20 area on Thursday and continues gaining traction through the first half of the European session. The XAG/USD pushes through the 100-hour EMA barrier and hits a fresh daily high, around the $18.70-$18.75 area in the last hour. The XAG/USD has now moved to the top end of its weekly trading range, around the $18.90-$19.00 region. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move towards the next relevant resistance near the $19.70-$19.80 supply zone. This is closely followed by the $20.00 psychological mark, which if cleared decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls. The XAG/USD could then climb beyond the $20.50 intermediate hurdle and aim to reclaim the $21.00 mark, coinciding with the 200-day EMA. On the flip side, the $18.50-$18.40 zone now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the daily low, around the $18.25-$18.20 region, and the $18.00 pivotal support. A convincing break below the latter will negate any positive bias and make the XAG/USD vulnerable. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag spot prices further towards the YTD low, around the $17.55 area touched in September. The downward trajectory could eventually drag the XAG/USD to the next relevant support near the $17.00 round-figure mark. Silver 1-hour chart  

Silver price fades bounce off the seven-week-old support line. Death cross, steady RSI favor sellers targeting fresh yearly low. Key SMAs restrict immediate upside, monthly low can test sellers. Silver price (XAG/USD) eases from the weekly high to $18.60, inching closer to the key trend line support during Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the bright metal pares the previous day’s gains while bracing for a positive weekly closing. That said, the metal’s failure to provide a successful break of the 50-SMA during the previous day’s run-up joins the steady RSI (14) to keep sellers hopeful. As a result, the XAG/USD prices may again attempt to break the upward-sloping support line from early September, around $18.30 by the press time, for the fourth consecutive time. It’s worth noting, however, that the death cross on the four-hour chart adds strength to the bearish bias for the metal, suggesting a clear downside break of the $18.30 support, which in turn could direct the quote towards the yearly low near $17.55. The 50-SMA’s downside break of the 200-SMA is known as the death cross and is generally favorable to the sellers. Also notable is that the lows marked in October and late September, around $18.00, could act as extra downside filters for the silver bears to watch. Meanwhile, recovery moves not only need to cross the 50-SMA hurdle of $18.80 but should also stay beyond the 200-SMA level of $19.23 to convince buyers. Silver: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected

Gold in the spot and futures markets has lost all of the small gains that it started at the beginning of the week. Silver futures also lost most of their gains: There seems to be a group of traders who see any profit, small or large, in gold and silver as an opportunity to wipe out those profits by actively going short. The only day when gold and silver closed in positive territory was Monday, the high and close gold reached during which is currently the highest it has made this week. The recent bearish sentiment in the gold market was a direct result of market participants' genuine concern about the impending 75 basis point rate hike at the last two FOMC meetings of this year in November and December. Comments made by several Federal Reserve officials underscored their intentions and focused on lowering inflation by raising interest rates. This resulted in higher yields on US debt instruments across the board, including 10-year notes and 30-year Treasury bonds. The yield has steadily risen to a higher value and continues to trade today. The yield on 10-year bonds rose 2.4% yesterday and currently stands at 4.226%. The yield on 30-year bonds increased by 2.18% and currently stands at 4.216%. There is still a reciprocal return between 10-year bonds and 30-year bonds, with 10-year bonds having a higher yield than a longer-term debt instrument. This indicates that investors and traders perceive current levels of return to be higher than they will be in a few years. Recent statements by Fed officials James Bullard and Neel Kashkari have confirmed that they are aiming to bring benchmark interest rates closer to 4% or 5%. As long as the Federal Reserve continues to raise its base rate, it is likely that gold will react negatively to higher interest rates instead of focusing on inflationary pressures that continue to persist.   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324965

Silver speculators continued to add to their shorts on net last week. Diwali holidays in India are set to add further pressure on the white metal, economists at TD Securities report. Silver prices succumb to the weight of rising real rates “Before it binds the Fed, quantitative tightening is increasingly constraining other central banks, supporting the broad dollar while weighing on precious metals, leading silver prices to succumb to the weight of rising real rates.”  “Inflation's rising persistence suggests the Fed is unlikely to stop hiking preemptively, which points to a prolonged period of restrictive rates that should continue to sap interest from institutional investors. However, massive purchases of physical precious metals from retail buyers are clashing with institutional investor outflows in past months, keeping a floor on prices.”  “With Diwali celebrations kicking off in a few days, silver could lose a dominant pillar of support.”

Summary:  A whiplash-inducing session for equity traders yesterday as the strong market session was spoiled after hours yesterday by weak results from Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet. A drop in US treasury yields, meanwhile, has driven a sharp correction lower in the US dollar, with EURUSD eyeing parity suddenly ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting and AUDUSD trying to break higher after a hot core Q3 CPI reading overnight.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Strong rally in US equities yesterday touching the 50-day moving average before settling a bit lower on the close. Price action has subsequently turned negative overnight after the cash session as disappointing earnings from Alphabet and worsening outlook from Microsoft are weighing on the indices. On the positive side, the US 10-year yield is coming down from its recent peak and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index showed yesterday that the US economy operated meaningfully above trend growth in both September and August suggesting inflationary forces are still intact despite tighter financial conditions. Euro STOXX 50 (EU50.I) Touched almost the 3,600 level as we indicated yesterday was the upside level the market was looking for, but the weaker US earnings overnight might impact equity sentiment today, but on the other hand European earnings releases this morning have broadly beaten estimates. FX: USD punched lower as yields drop Yesterday saw the potent, USD-negative combination of treasury yields pushing sharply lower and strong risk sentiment, but interesting to note that the USD weakness continued in late trading yesterday, even after important megacap companies in the US reported weak earnings and risk sentiment reversed sharply, suggesting that treasury yields are the primary driver of the moment. EURUSD came within spitting distance of parity again, and could head to 1.0200 on a break above if the US 10-year yield breaks below 4.00%, although traders may rein in their market exposure ahead of next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. USDJPY is also under pressure, trading near 148.00, and may have a path to 145.00 or lower if yields continue to ease. Elsewhere, a hot CPI print from Australia overnight (more below) has AUDUSD making a bid above the important 0.6400 area. Gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) Gold and silver trade higher after receiving a boost from a weaker dollar and continued decline in US bond yields amid signs the US economy is showing signs of rolling over, just days before the next FOMC interest rate decision on November 2. US yields slumped across the curve after data showed home prices tumbling the most since 2009 and US consumer confidence was down by more than expected. While another bumper 75 basis points hike is expected next week, the FOMC may decide to ease the foot of the brakes in coming meetings while assessing the impact of their rate and quantitative tightening actions. As a minimum gold needs to break above $1730 before an end to the month-long downtrend can be called. Until then watch the dollar and yields for inspiration, while silver, in order to avoid creating a potential bearish head-and-shoulder formation, needs a break above $20. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil remains rangebound, with Brent currently stuck in a $90 to $95 range, after a weaker dollar led pop on Tuesday was reversed after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 4.5-million-barrel expansion in US crude stocks. In today’s weekly update from the EIA, the market will be watching distillate stocks as concerns about tight supplies continue to grow ahead of the EU embargo on Russian fuel starting next February. Diesel inventories in the US are at lowest seasonal level ever heading into winter while the situation in Europe looks similar. Developments that have driven distillate crack spreads and diesel prices at the pumps higher in recent weeks relative to gasoline. Also focus this week on earnings from Big Oil. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields dropped further yesterday, with the 2-year benchmark yield easing below 4.50%, and the 10-year yield pushing all the way down below 4.10% and therefore nearing the important 4.00% area. A drop in the latest Consumer Confidence survey (more below) offered a tailwind, as have talks since Monday of a possible treasury “buyback” from US Treasury Secretary Yellen, said to be prompted by the need to improve liquidity in the treasury market and attractive from the Treasury’s point of view as lower yielding long treasuries issued at far lower yields can be bought back at significant discounts. What is going on? Australia September and Q3 CPI comes in hot Yet another hot inflation report out overnight, particularly in the core inflation data, this time from Down Under, as Australia’s September CPI came in at +7.3% YoY vs. +7.1% expected, and the Q3 CPI was also higher than expected at +1.8% QoQ and +7.3% YoY vs. +1.6%/7.0% expected, with the “trimmed mean” core CPI out at +1.8%/6.1%, far above the 1.5%/5.0% expected, and 4.5% YoY in Q2. Housing prices were the biggest contributors up 10.5%, followed by Transport costs up 9.2% and Food price growth up 9%. US October Consumer Confidence weaker than expected The survey was out at 102.5 versus 105.9 expected and 107.8 in September, with a bad miss in the Present Situation component, which fell to 138.9 from 150.2 in September, a large drop and the lowest reading since early 2021. Wheat futures (ZWZ2) slipped to a five-week low on Tuesday ... with Black Sea grain exports pressuring prices while rain in recently dry growing areas in the US and Argentine adding further downward pressure to prices, especially in the US where recently planted winter wheat fields in the US Midwest look set to receive a decent dose of moisture and potentially further speed of the planting currently 79% completed. Ukraine’s export of agricultural products could rise by more than 8% in October from last month, the Ukrainian Agrarian Council said on Tuesday while ADM’s chief grain trader on an earnings call said that he sees “nothing significant that could derail” an extension of the Black Sea grain export corridor next month. Google shares down 7% on big Q3 miss It turned out that Snap’s worse than expected results last week were a good leading indicator on Google’s performance in Q3. Revenue came in at $69.1bn vs $70.8bn and operating income was $17.1bn vs est. $19.7bn as the operating margin is coming under significant pressure q/q and y/y. Revenue growth in Q3 at 6% y/y is the slowest pace since Q2 2020. Microsoft shares down 7% on worsening outlook FY23 Q1 (ending 30 September) revenue was $↨50.1bn vs est. $49.6bn and EPS of $2.35 vs est. $2.29, but it was the forecast for the current quarter that negatively surprised the market. Microsoft expects the slowdown in PC sales and rising energy costs to hurt operating margin, and the company has more or less introduced a hiring freeze to keep costs under control. What are we watching next? Bank of Canada set to hike 75 basis points We have an interesting combination of hot CPI readings in a number of places, including Canada and Australia, seeing the market adjusting expectations higher for the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia, all while US yields have eased off on the anticipation that the FOMC will deliver a message. After the recent hot September Canada CPI reading, the market boosted expectations for today’s Bank of Canada hike to 75 basis points for today's, which will take the policy rate to 4.00% UK PM Sunak may delay budget statement scheduled for early next week Prime Minister Rishi Sunak may delay the report to give the new government a chance to find its feet first, with less urgency as sterling has not only stabilized, but rallied and UK Gilt yields have plunged, with the 10-year yield some 100 basis points lower, closing at 3.64% yesterday. Sunak reappointed Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor and announced a number of other appointments. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Meta and given the weak results from both Snap and Alphabet due to worsening pricing on online ads we expect downward pressure on Meta’s business. Key for investors will be Meta admitting that its Metaverse bet is too expensive and will be reined in in the short-term as the company is facing tough headwinds on cash flow generation. Today: Dassault Systemes, Mercedes-Benz, BASF, Deutsche Bank, PingAn Insurance, CGN Power, UniCredit, Canon, Barclays, Standard Chartered, Heineken, Aker BP, Iberdrola, Banco Santander, SEB, Meta Platforms, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, ADP, Boeing, ServiceNow, Ford Motor, Twitter Thursday: ANZ, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Argenx, Shopify, Teck Resources, Neste, Kone, TotalEnergies, EDF, STMicroelectronics, PetroChina, China Life Insurance, CNOOC, Oriental Land, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Hoya, FANUC, Shell, Lloyds Banking Group, Universal Music Group, Repsol, Ferrovial, Hexagon, Evolution, Credit Suisse, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Merck & Co, McDonald’s, Linde, Intel, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Gilead Sciences, Pioneer Natural Resources Friday: Macquarie Group, OMV, ICBC, China Merchants Bank, LONGi Green Energy Technology, Midea Group, Imperial Oil, Danske Bank, Sanofi, Airbus, Volkswagen, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, BYD, China Shenhua Energy, Eni, Keyence, Hitachi, Denso, Equinor, CaixaBank, Wilmar International, Swiss Re, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, NextEra Energy, Colgate-Palmolive, Royal Caribbean Cruises Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1230 – US Sep. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1400 – Bank of Canada Rate Decision 1400 – US Sep. New Home Sales 1430 – US DoE Weekly Crude Oil and Product Inventories 1500 – Canada Bank of Canada Governor Macklem to speak 1700 – US Treasury auctions 5-year T-notes 2045 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr to speak 2130 – Brazil Selic Rate Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-26-2022-26102022

Silver climbs back closer to a nearly two-week high touched on Monday. Bulls await a move beyond the 100-day SMA before placing fresh bets. A break below the $18.00 mark is needed to negate the positive outlook. Silver builds on the previous day's bounce from the 200-hour SMA support and gains some follow-through traction for the second successive day on Wednesday. The positive move lifts the white metal back above the mid-$19.00s during the early European session, closer to a nearly two-week high touched on Monday. The XAG/USD is currently flirting with the 100-day SMA barrier, which if cleared decisively should pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move. Meanwhile, oscillators on hourly charts are holding in the bullish territory and have just started moving in the positive zone on the daily chart. This, in turn, supports prospects for an eventual breakout through the aforementioned barrier. The XAG/USD might then aim to surpass the $20.00 psychological mark and climb further towards the next relevant hurdle near the $20.50 region. Bulls might then aim to reclaim the $21.00 round-figure mark. The latter coincides with the 200-day EMA, above which the momentum could eventually lift spot prices back towards the monthly swing high, around the $21.25 region. On the flip side, the $19.20 area now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $19.00 mark and the 200-hour SMA, currently around the $18.80 region. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $18.30-$18.25 intermediate support en route to the next relevant support near the $18.00 round figure. Failure to defend the latter will negate any near-term positive bias and shift the bias back in favour of bearish traders. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the XAG/USD further towards the YTD low, around the $17.55 area touched in September. The downward trajectory could get extended to the next relevant support near the $17.00 round-figure mark. Silver 1-hour chart  

Silver price extends bounce off 50-DMA to renew intraday high. Bulls jostle with 100-DMA, descending trend line from early October. Firmer oscillators favor bulls but daily closing beyond $19.55 appears necessary to test previous monthly peak. Two-month-old ascending support line acts as additional downside filter. Silver price (XAG/USD) takes the bids to refresh intraday high near $19.60 heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the bright metal not only justifies the previous day’s rebound from the 50-DMA but also crosses the 100-DMA and a one-month-long resistance line to please XAG/USD buyers hopeful. That said, firmer RSI (14) and bullish MACD signals also strengthen the odds favoring the commodity’s further upside. However, a daily closing beyond the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding $19.55 becomes a pre-requisite for the XAG/USD bulls to take control. Also likely to challenge the silver buyers is the previous weekly top near $19.80, a break of which won’t hesitate to challenge the October month’s peak of $21.24. During the run-up, the $20.00 psychological magnet may act as an extra resistance to watch for the bulls. On the contrary, a daily closing below the aforementioned resistance line, close to $19.40 by the press time, could reverse the short-term bullish bias. Even so, the XAG/USD sellers will wait for a clear downside break of the 50-DMA, close to $19.10, to take entries. Following that, an upward-sloping support line from early September, around $18.45 at the latest, appears the last defense of the silver bulls. Silver: Daily chart Trend: Bullish  

Silver finds some support near 100-day SMA, though struggles to attract any buyers. The setup still favours bullish traders and supports prospects for additional gains. A sustained break below the $19.00 mark is needed to negate the positive outlook. Silver struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Wednesday and remains confined in a narrow trading band above the mid-$19.00s through the early European session. From a technical perspective, the overnight retracement slide from the $20.00 psychological mark stalls near the 100-day SMA. The said support coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent fall from the October monthly swing high and should act as a pivotal point for the XAG/USD. Given the overnight breakout through the aforementioned confluence barrier, the technical set-up seems tilted firmly in favour of bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started moving into positive territory and support prospects for a further appreciating move. Hence, a fresh attempt towards conquering the $20.00 round figure, also marking the 61.8% Fibo. level, looks like a distinct possibility. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the XAG/USD further towards an intermediate resistance near the $20.50 region en route to the $21.00 mark. On the flip side, weakness below the mid-$19.00s (100 DMA) might continue to attract some buyers near the $19.00-$18.90 support zone, representing the 23.6% Fibo. level. A convincing break below the latter will shift the near-term bias in favour of bearish traders and make the XAG/USD vulnerable. The subsequent downward trajectory could then drag the XAG/USD towards the next relevant support near the $18.30-$18.25 region. This is closely followed by the $18.00 round-figure mark, below which spot prices could aim to challenge the YTD low, around the $17.55 area touched in September. Silver daily chart  

Silver remains mildly bid inside three-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. Steady RSI suggests continued grinding between 50-DMA and 100-DMA. Two-month-old ascending trend line adds to the downside filters. Silver price (XAG/USD) remains firmer around $19.30 while paring the post-Fed losses during early Thursday in Europe. In doing so, the bright metal rebounds from the 50-DMA to stay inside a three-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. Given the sluggish RSI, the commodity prices are likely to remain sidelined between the 50-DMA and the 100-DMA, currently around $19.10 and $19.50 in that order. However, the bearish formation teases sellers in case of the $19.10 break. That said, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of September-October upside, near $18.95, acts as the additional downside filter before directing the bullion bears towards the theoretical target surrounding $17.30. During the anticipated fall, an upward-sloping support line from early September and the yearly low, close to $18.50 and $17.55 respectively, could act as intermediate halts for the XAG/USD prices. On the contrary, an upside break of the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding $19.50 could propel prices toward the recent high of $20.08 before the stated wedge’s upper line, close to $20.15, could challenge the silver buyers. In a case where XAG/USD remains firmer past $20.15, the odds of witnessing a run-up targeting the previous monthly peak of $21.25 can’t be ruled out. Silver: Daily chart Trend: Limited upside expected

Summary:  Gold and silver turned sharply lower yesterday after Fed Chair Powell delivered a hammer-blow to sentiment across markets as he managed to both pull off the idea of the Fed may indeed soon pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes, but that any talk of a pause is “very premature”. With the dollar and yields surging higher both metals are at risk of resuming their downtrends with gold traders in particularly keeping a close eye on the $1615 area. Saxo's Daily Financial Markets Quick TakePodcast: The FOMC pulls off a hawkish pivot   Gold and silver turned sharply lower yesterday after Fed Chair Powell delivered a hammer-blow to sentiment across markets as he managed to both pull off the idea of the Fed may indeed soon pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes, but that any talk of a pause is “very premature”. His comments followed an initial misinterpretation of the statement that accompanied the expected 75 basis point rate, the fourth consecutive hike of this magnitude in this cycle, after it raised the prospect of the FOMC pausing to assess the “cumulative tightening” impact. In our daily Financial Markets Quick Take, our Head of FX strategy John Hardy wrote: In the press conference, however, Fed Chair Powell was far more hawkish, saying there is a “ways to go”, and spelling out that the incoming data means that the “ultimate level” that the Fed funds reaches is likely to move to higher levels than was though at the September meeting. This had Fed expectations for the spring of next year edging back toward the cycle highs of 5.00% and then closing the day a full 10 basis points higher near 5.10%.  While Powell did say it may be possible that the Fed steps down to smaller hikes as soon as the December meeting, the FOMC felt that the speed of hikes Is becoming “less important” (leaving market to infer that the Fed just keeps hiking at more meetings if incoming data supports doing so. As well, we must remember that the Fed has cranked up the pace of quantitative tightening in the background, which provides its own tightening pressure on markets and arguably equates with several hundred basis points of rate tightening over the course of a year. The dollar, one of the most important drivers for precious metals, was first weak yesterday, thereby supporting sentiment ahead of the meeting before the Powell presser lit a fire under the greenback with the US dollar ripping back to the strong side, generating compelling reversal patterns for USD bulls almost across the board, not least against the euro where the important 0.9876-0.9850 area fell while USDJPY moved north of 147.00 after holding support at 145.00.  In the short-term gold is likely to be challenged with speculators jumping back into short position on expectations US treasury yields and dollar will move higher. However, several sources of support exist, not least the risk that economic data may start to turn softer given the time lag between rate hikes and the economic impact, and the yield curve moving towards its most inverted for the cycle below -50 basis points for the 2-10 year spread, thereby highlighting the risk of a central bank policy mistake leading to weaker growth without successfully managing to get inflation under control.  At Saxo, we maintain a long-held view that inflation in the 4% to 5% range over the next decade is not outrageous. Driven by a new geopolitical situation where the world is splitting into two parts with everything evolving around deglobalization driven by the need for self-reliance and re-arming. Together with the energy transition we are facing a decade that will be commodity and capital intensive and where scarcity of raw materials and labor will keep inflation elevated for longer, and higher than the 3% level currently being shown through the swaps market. Short-term technical outlook for gold A double top pattern based on the peaks in 2020 and 2022 is currently unfolding with a daily close below $1614 potentially fueling a further sell-off towards $1510, the 0.618 retracement of the 2018 to 2022 rally. A break back above $1735 will be needed at this stage to neutralize these downside concerns.  Short-term technical outlook for silver Earlier in the week silver was once again forcefully rejected at the $20 resistance level, potentially signaling a resumption of the downtrend. Next level of support being the rising trendline, currently at $18.33, but if broken a deeper sell-off could see it target $16.95 next. Again, a break and close back above $20 will be needed to nullify these short-term risks.      Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/hawkish-powell-hammers-gold-and-silver-03112022

Silver gains strong traction for the second straight day and climbs beyond the mid-$19.00s. The neutral technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any further gains. A sustained strength beyond the $20.00 mark is needed to confirm a fresh bullish breakout. Silver builds on the previous day's solid recovery from the $18.85-$18.80 support zone and gains some follow-through traction for the second straight day on Friday. The white metal maintains its bid tone through the early European session and is currently trading around the $19.70-$19.80 region, up over 1.30% for the day. Looking at the broader technical picture, the recent two-way price moves witnessed over the past two weeks or so constitute the formation of a rectangle on the daily. This points to indecision over the near-term trajectory for the XAGUSD. Furthermore, the metal's inability to find acceptance above the 100-day EMA and this week's failures near the $20.00 psychological mark warrants caution for bullish traders. This makes it prudent to wait for a sustained break through the handle before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. With oscillators on the daily chart moving in the positive territory, the XAGUSD might then accelerate the momentum towards an intermediate resistance near the $20.50 region. The momentum could get extended and allow the bulls to eventually aim back to reclaim the $21.00 mark. On the flip side, the daily swing low, around the $19.40 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $19.00 round figure. Any subsequent slide might continue to find decent support near the $18.85-$18.80 horizontal zone, which if broken decisively will shift the bias in favour of bearish traders. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the XAGUSD to the $18.30-$18.25 support zone. This is closely followed by the $18.00 round-figure mark, below which spot prices could slide further towards challenging the YTD low, around the $17.55 zone touched in September. Silver daily chart  

Capital Economics' latest forecast says that despite the fact that in response to the hawkish stance of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, gold prices have declined, prices will rise next year. "We forecast [gold and silver] prices to rise from $1,630 and $18 per ounce today to $1,700 and $19.5 by end 2023," said Edward Gardner, commodities economist at Capital Economics. On Wednesday, after the fourth rate hike by 75 basis points, the Fed confused the markets with its mixed messages. The US central bank has said it will now consider a "cumulative tightening" of monetary policy and a "slowdown" of monetary policy. At the same time, Powell followed up with comments that the "ultimate level" of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously thought and said that the window for a soft landing is "narrowing." However, Capital Economics is not convinced that the Fed can stay hawkish for long. "Gold and silver prices fell following Chair Powell's hawkish comments yesterday. But if we are right in thinking U.S. rates won't rise by as much as markets expect, gold and silver prices should increase next year," Gardner said Thursday. "Gold and silver prices initially rose following the Federal Reserve's decision to raise its policy rate by 75 basis points yesterday. Briefly, investors took the decision to be dovish." In addition, the US dollar, which has been a big drag on the precious metal, will peak next year and begin to decline, helping gold recover. "A stronger dollar makes purchasing gold and silver priced in dollars outside of the U.S. more expensive. If we are right and the slowdown in global economic growth will trough at around the middle of next year, then we think improved risk appetite will then lead to a weaker dollar," Gardner wrote. And the final element that will lift prices will be demand for gold, which will be sustainable, especially when it comes to central bank purchases, Gardner added. "Central banks purchased 673 tonnes of gold in the first nine months of this year, a multi-decade high for January to September," he said. This week, the World Gold Council released its Gold Demand Trends report, which says that gold purchases by central banks hit a record high in the latest quarter. Buying is expected to continue due to geopolitical tensions.     Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/326260

Summary:  Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to Tuesday, November 1, the day before Fed Chair Powell sent shivers across markets. Ahead of the meeting speculators cut bullish dollar bets to a 15-month low, in commodities buying was concentrated in crude oil, natural gas, copper and soybeans with gold, sugar and coffee seeing continued selling Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming   Financial Markets Daily Quick TakeSaxo Market Call Daily Podcast This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to Tuesday, November 1. The day before the FOMC delivered its fourth consecutive 75 basis rate hike in this cycle while pouring cold water on the markets hope for a slowdown after Fed Chair Powell said there is still some way to go and that incoming data means will help determine the “ultimate level” that the Fed funds reaches. In the reporting week prior to the meeting technology stocks had sold of on disappointing earnings while the dollar and US Treasury yields traded softer. The commodity sector was mixed with gains in industrial metals and grains being partly offset by softness elsewhere.  Commodities The Bloomberg Commodity traded higher on the week with a small 0.6% gain reflecting a mixed market where gains in industrial metals and especially the grains sector was being offset by losses in softs and livestock. The energy sector traded lower with losses in natural gas and gas oil disguising an otherwise strong week for crude oil.Speculators where net buyers of commodities with length being added to 13 out of the 24 commodity futures tracked in this, led by and concentrated in crude oil, natural gas , copper and soybeans. Selling was concentrated across the softs sector where all four contracts continued to be sold. Energy Speculators raised bullish crude oil bets by a combined 38k lots to 426k lots, an 18 week high. In the week both WTI and Brent rallied by more than 3% in response to OPEC+ production cuts and renewed optimism about demand in China, developments that helped attract fresh longs, primarily into Brent. Small profit taking reduced the net length in gas oil and gasoline. In natural gas a 7% price drop triggered profit taking among short sellers resulting in the net short falling by 21% to -68k lots.    Metals Money managers were net sellers of gold for a third week ahead of last week's FOMC meeting. The 17% increase to -39k lots took the net short back to near a four-year high, just ahead of a volatile few trading days where anotherr downside rejection at $1615 support helped trigger a strong short covering rally ahead of the weekend. Short covering reduced the silver net short by 43% to 3.4k lots, platinum length was added for a fifth week taking the net long to 13.3k lots and highest since March. Copper buyers sensing support from developments in China helped flip the net back to a long position of 5.3k lots and highest since June.  Agriculture  The grains sector saw net buying for a second week lifting the combined long across six grains and soy contracts to a 19-week high at 553k lots. The bulk of the buying was led by the soybeans, soy meal and oil contracts with corn seeing a small increase in the net long. The 8% jump in wheat on Ukraine export worries did not alter the overall bearish view held by funds. Selling into strength they lifted the net short in Chicago wheat to -37k lots, the biggest short bet since the depth of the pandemic panic in June 2020. The four major softs commodities continued to see heavy net selling, this week being led by 48% reduction in the sugar long to 44k lots. The cocoa net short extended to -43.7k lots and not far from a five-year high, a development that increasingly could trigger a sharp rebound should the technical and/or fundamental outlook turn more friendly. Weeks of coffee selling continued resulting in the net flipping back to a net short of -10.4k lots for the first time in 25 months. A similar situation in cotton where nine weeks of continued selling has taken the net close to neutral at just 5.4k lots.    Forex In forex, flows turned decisively against the dollar, a day before Fed Chair Powell delivered his hawkish comments which only managed to trigger some temporary dollar strength. Before this reporting week, the Greenback had increasingly been losing steam against several of the nine IMM forex futures tracked in this report. The bulk of the net dollar selling had up until recently been mostly against the euro which since late August has seen €19 billion of net buying, reversing the net position from a 48k lots short to a 106k long. This past week buying accelerated with the net long jumping 41% to a 17 month high. Combined with an aggressive 24% reduction in the JPY net short and a 250% jump in the MXN net long, the combined dollar long ended up being reduced by 59% to just $5 billion, the weakest belief in a stronger dollar since August last year.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/cot-crude-oil-and-copper-bought-gold-sold-ahead-of-fomc-07112022

Summary:  Risk sentiment remained upbeat despite the fallout in the crypto world as equities focused on the results of the midterm elections. Bitcoin made fresh YTD lows in the wake of Binance's acquisition of FTX. But US yields and the dollar tumbled, helping Gold and Silver to run higher breaking some key resistances. Another surge in China’s Covid cases still kept a check on gains in oil prices, and focus today will be on inflation data from China. Disney’s disappointing results further add to this quarter’s earnings misery, and Rivian and Roblox report today. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) closed higher in a choppy session A political gridlock with a divided Congress after mid-term elections was historically positive for the equity market. S&P 500 gained nearly 1.4% and Nasdaq 100 rose as much as 2% at one point before paring all the gains and more in the early afternoon, dragged by a selloff in the crypto space. Stocks managed to bounce in the late afternoon and recover some of the early gains, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finishing a volatile session 0.6% and 0.8% higher respectively. Lyft (LYFT:xnas) tumbled 23% after weak rider growth was reported the day before. Walt Disney (DIS:xnys) plunged 6.4% in extended-hours trading on earnings miss which was dragged by weak streaming results. US  treasury (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields fell on hopes for political gridlock and strong demand in the 3-year auction US treasury yields fell 4bps to 9bps across the curve with the best performance in the 5-year to 10-year segment, with the 10-year yield down 9bps to to 4.12%. Anticipations of political gridlock in Washington that historically restrained fiscal policies saw buying in treasuries. Demand in the 3-year auction was solid with awarded yields stopped at more than 1bp richer from the time right before the auction. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) took a pause as Covid cases surged The China reopening trade took a pause in Hong Kong and the mainland bourses as domestically transmitted new cases in the mainland doubled to 7,455. Guangzhou, the capital city of the Southern Guangdong province reported 2,377 new cases and launched mandatory testing in 9 of the 11 districts of the city, and extended the lockdown of Haizhu district to Friday. Hang Sang Index fell 0.2% and CSI300 lost 0.7%. China’s passenger vehicle sales growth slowed in October to +7.3% Y/Y but new energy vehicles sales, rising 75% Y/Y, remained solid. However, EV stocks declined, with NIO (09866:xhkg) falling the most, down 9% following analysts cutting price targets on the stock. Among China internet names, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) underperformed, losing 3.7%. Macau casino stocks were the top performers, rising 2% to 4%, following Macau’s decision to relax entrance rules for some visa holders starting Sunday. FX: Weaker dollar and lower yields amid an expected Republican sweep Expectations of a split Congress saw lower US yields and further USD selling on Tuesday, and eyes are now on US CPI due later this week. Meanwhile, the crypto fallout in the wake of FTX being acquired by Binance sparked a wave of volatility. Yen gained with USDJPY falling below 146. EUR gained a firmer footing above parity amid the latest ECB rhetoric including from de Guindos who noted they will continue raising rates to levels that ensure price stability, while ECB's Nagel said he will do his utmost to make sure the ECB does not let up in the inflation fight and said that large rate hikes are necessary. GBPUSD also reclaimed 1.15 handle. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) slid with API inventory build WTI futures slid below the key $90 mark on Tuesday and Brent slid to $95 despite a weaker dollar as a fresh surge in China’s Covid cases further sparked concerns on whether China will part ways with its Zero Covid policy. Xinjian reported its fourth highest number of new cases nationally on Monday. Inner Mongolia, which was sealed off in early October, saw cases jump to almost 1800. New infections in the province of Henan almost doubled. Meanwhile, supply concerns eased with API inventory build coming in larger than expected with crude oil inventory up 5.6mm barrels last week and gasoline inventory also coming in higher. Still, US EIA also cut its 2023 oil production estimate to 12.31mm barrels/day, suggesting structural supply concerns are here to stay. Copper (HGZ2), Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) The weakness in the dollar drove metals higher. Copper led the base metals sector higher on dwindling inventories amid positive signs for demand, challenging the September high of $3.6925 once again, ahead of $3.78. Bold move higher in gold and silver as well last night with renewed USD weakness, with the most notable being gold up at one-month highs breaking through $1680/85. A break above $1735 would likely confirm a low in the market. Silver finding some technical resistance here at $21.50 but the break above $21.15 has opened up for a move to $22.25.   What to consider Republicans likely in a strong position in the US mid-term elections Looking at the latest odds on Predictit, the chance of Republicans taking the House is up to 95% from 90% earlier. The chance of them winning the Senate is up to 83% from 74% earlier. All the closest races have tilted towards the Republicans as well. It can take several days to confirm which party will prevail, especially in the Senate. More so if we go to recounts, where the votes cast in a close race are retabulated to verify the initial results. A split Congress, as we wrote yesterday, lowers the expectation of fiscal support measures thereby leading to investors expecting a sooner Fed pivot again. This can spark a further tactically rally in equities and will likely be USD negative. Risk of a contagion in the crypto market After a weeklong dispute between crypto exchanges Binance and FTX, the former is set to acquire FTX, stating a significant liquidity crunch for FTX. This may fuel further contagion throughout the crypto market, as not only FTX but also Alameda Research - the highly linked trading firm to FTX - may be insolvent. Our crypto analyst expects increased volatility in the next couple of days and weeks. Further, this may lead to contagion across the crypto market as experienced in May and June this year, so in our view, traders and investors in the crypto market should act cautiously in the foreseeable future. Likewise, Bitcoin's correlation with NASDAQ has been record-high throughout this year - and relatively high today. Please be aware that the development of crypto may impact particularly NASDAQ. Read more here. China’s PPI and CPI are expected to slow in October China’s PPI is expected to fall -1.5% Y/Y in October vs +0.9% Y/Y in September, due to the high base last year resulting from increases in material and energy prices. Unlike other major economies, CPI in China is expected to slow to +2.4% Y/Y in October from +2.8% in September. Walt Disney reported disappointing FYQ4 results Walt Disney reported FYQ4 revenue at USD20.2 billion, about USD1 billion below street consensus estimates. Adjusted EPS declined to 30 cents, missing substantially the Bloomberg consensus of 51 cents. Subscriptions rose to 164.2 million in FYQ4, up 12 million from 152 million in FYQ3, beating expectations. The operating loss in the direct-to-consumer segment, driven by the Disney+ streaming service, however, jumped to USD1.47 billion in FYQ4 from USD1.05 billion in FYQ3. The management told analysts that they expect the direct-to-consumer segment losses “to narrow going forward and that Disney+ will still achieve profitability in fiscal 2024, assuming [they] do not see a meaningful shift in the economic climate.” France’s housing market is cooling down The combination between high inflation across the board (CPI hovering close to 6% on a year-on-year basis), lower purchasing power and higher interest rates is pushing housing prices down in France. According to the real estate promoter Century21 (one of the leading player in this market), real estate prices went down under the threshold of 10.000 Є per square meter in Paris. The deceleration in prices is however limited so far. Contrary to Tel Aviv, Amsterdam and Hong Kong, the parisian housing market is not in a situation of a speculative bubble. Prices are overvalued however. Expect prices to go down a bit more due to a drop in solvent demand. But we won't see a large decrease in prices as it is currently happening in several major cities in the United States, for instance. The French housing market is more resilient for mostly two main reasons: fixed interest rates and a comparatively low household debt (it represents about 124% of net disposable household income versus a peak at 249% in Denmark). For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-9-nov-09112022

Summary:  Market sentiment improved further yesterday before dipping slightly overnight, as China Covid cases are on the rise, pushing back against hopes for a lifting of Covid restrictions. In the US mid-term elections, Democrats are slightly outperforming expectations, possibly set to retain control of the Senate even if Republicans look likely set to take narrow control of the House of Representatives.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities exhausted themselves yesterday pulling back from intraday highs to close around the 3,835 level. Sentiment has weakened overnight amid the ongoing impact from the US midterm elections, bad Disney and the fallout from the implosion of FTX in the crypto industry with S&P 500 futures trading down to the 3,829 level. Tesla shares continued lower yesterday, and Elon Musk announced overnight in a filing that he had sold 19.5mn shares in Tesla, and the negative momentum could broaden as many retail investors have sizeable exposure to the stock. The next big event for the US equity market is tomorrow’s October inflation figures which are expected to show core inflation is easing a bit. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) The China reopening continued to fade as new Covid cases surged further to 8,176 yesterday. Hang Seng Index retreated 1.6% and CSI 300 slid 0.8%. China’s PPI declined 1.3% Y/Y in October due to falls in energy and materials prices and weaknesses in metal processing. CPI inflation was also weaker than expected and fell to +2.1% in October from 2.8% in September on weak consumer demand and property prices. Share prices of Chinese developers however surged, following the Chinese authorities pledged to provide credit support, including credit insurance and bond buying, to private enterprise developers. FX: USD remains on back foot after testing important support. Thursday CPI key focus The US dollar fell sharply yesterday, with EURUSD testing the pivot high of 1.0094 before pulling back slightly into this morning and USDJPY had a look toward the pivotal 145.00 level without breaking through. Elsewhere, AUDUSD tested above the 0.6522 pivot late yesterday before pulling back again, likely on concerns that rising China Covid cases are frustrating hopes that a shift away from lockdowns will provide a further boost to the commodity market. Lower US treasury yields yesterday helped drive the US dollar lower and are a key focus over the Thursday October US CPI release, as CPI releases have sparked considerable volatility in recent months. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) slid on API inventory build and China’s Covid Challenges WTI futures trade back below $90 and Brent near $95 after a fresh surge in China’s Covid cases sparked concerns over whether China will part ways with its Zero Covid policy. Also weighing on prices was the API reporting a 5.6m build in crude and 2.6m build in gasoline stocks. On the supply the EIA made another downgrade to its forecast for US 2023 production, down 0.7m b/d since March to 12.3m b/d driven by labor shortages, high equipment costs, supply-chain constraints and not least commitment to profits over production. Precious and industrial metals pause following another upside push After pausing on Monday, gold, silver and copper all resumed their upside push yesterday with the moves being triggered by renewed dollar weakness and softer bond yields ahead of tomorrow’s US October CPI release. A selloff in cryptocurrencies potentially helped get the ball rolling, especially gold which found fresh momentum buying on the break above $1680/85 area. Technical resistance levels in silver at $21.50 and copper at $3.69 together with the EURUSD hitting resistance at the pivot high of 1.0094 paused the rally. Gold, up 83 dollars in three sessions, will be watching $1735 closely as a break above could be signalling an end to the month-long correction. Crypto market getting nervous After a weeklong dispute between crypto exchanges Binance and FTX, a letter of intent was signed yesterday for Binance to acquire FTX, stating a significant liquidity crunch for FTX. The announcement was initially a brief relief for the crypto market, but it was followed by a steep crypto sell-off, likely dragging major equity indices such as S&P 500 down as well. Nervousness is spreading throughout the crypto markets in fear of further contagion as we saw earlier this year, and a higher degree of volatility should be expected in the crypto markets. Read more here. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US Treasury yields fell yesterday all along the curve ahead of the macro data point of the week – tomorrow's US October CPI release. Focus on the 3.90% yield on the 10-year treasury yield to the downside and 4.3% area cycle high to the upside in the wake of that release. What is going on? Disney sees margin compression in Q4 Disney+ delivered Q4 subscribers of 164.2mn vs est. 162.5mn but EPS came in at $0.30 vs est. $0.51 as energy costs and wage pressures are pressuring the operating margin. Disney+ is still on track to be profitable in the FY24 (two years from now). Disney’s Q4 revenue was $20.2bn vs est. $21.3bn. Shares were 7% lower in extended trading. Tesla shares fall another 5% and Elon Musk sells $4bn of shares The rumours about the big losses at Twitter and that Elon Musk would be forced to fund its operations were true as he filed overnight that he had sold $4bn of Tesla shares pushing the price down by another 2% in extended trading. Negative momentum could easily extend here with Tesla shares sitting a crucial support area back from March and June 2021. US Mid-term elections avoid the “red wave” of Republican gains, although Dems likely to lose House The final results are too early to call, but the Democrats may possibly retain control of the US Senate, with one race in Georgia possibly requiring a run-off as was the case in the 2020 election before any final outcome is known. Final tallies are not available for the House of Representative results, but the lean in the results makes it likely that the Republicans will take control of the House by a fairly comfortable margin (NYT estimates 225-210 this morning). Democrats losing the House means that the last two years of the Biden presidency will be “lame-duck”, with no real ability to shape new policy. At the same time, given the situation coming into this election, with soaring inflation and poor popularity for the sitting president, the Republican performance looks quite weak. As well, if the Democrats do retain control of the Senate, Republican-driven legislation will be unlikely to reach Biden’s desk, meaning he won’t have to formally veto their bills. France’s housing market is cooling down The combination between high inflation across the board (CPI hovering close to 6 % on a year-on-year basis), lower purchasing power and higher interest rates is pushing housing prices down in France. According to the real estate promoter Century21 (one of the leading players in this market), real estate prices went down under the threshold of 10.000 Є per square meter in Paris. The deceleration in prices is, however, limited so far. Contrary to Tel Aviv, Amsterdam and Hong Kong, the Parisian housing market is not in a situation of a speculative bubble. Prices are overvalued, however. Expect prices to go down a bit more due to a drop in solvent demand. But we won't see a large decrease in prices as it is currently happening in several major cities in the United States, for instance. The French housing market is more resilient for mostly two main reasons: fixed interest rates and a comparatively low household debt (it represents about 124 % of net disposable household income versus a peak at 249 % in Denmark). What are we watching next? US October CPI release tomorrow is macro event of the week Many recent US CPI releases have sparked considerable market volatility, not least the September release last month which strongly surprised by showing core inflation reaching a new cycle high of 6.6% year-on-year. Tomorrow’s October CPI release, ex Fresh Food and Energy is expected to come in at +0.5% month-on-month and +6.5% year-on-year, with the headline expected at +0.6%/7.9%, which would be the first sub-8.0% year-on-year print since February. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus Rivian Automotive and DR Horton. The electric vehicle industry is in high growth phase and Rivian is also expected to report revenue of $561mn up from $1mn a year ago as the company ramps up production of its delivery vans. DR Horton is expected to deliver FY22 Q4 (ending 30 September) revenue growth up 25% as the tailwind from the backlog is still feeding through, but revenue growth y/y is expected to collapse to –6% y/y in the current quarter so the outlook is the key watch in this earnings release. Wednesday: National Australia Bank, KBC Group, Genmab, Siemens Healthineers, E.ON, Adidas, Honda Motor, Coupang, Rivian Automotive, Roblox, DR Horton, Trade Desk Thursday: Brookfield Asset Management, Fortum, Engie, Credit Agricole, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, SMIC, Nexi, AstraZeneca, ArcelorMittal, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Becton Dickinson, NIO Friday: Richemont Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Hungary October CPI 0800 – US Fed’s Williams (Voter) to speak 0905 – Australia RBA’s Bullock to speak Poland Announces Interest Rate 1200 – Mexico Oct. CPI 1300 – UK Bank of England’s Haskel to speak 1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 1630 – UK Bank of England’s Cunliffe to speak 1700 – World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) 0001 – UK Oct. RICS House Price Balance 0100 – US Fed’s Kashkari (Voter 2023) to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-9-2022-09112022

Silver regains some positive traction following the overnight pullback from a multi-month peak. RSI (14) on the daily chart warrants caution for bulls and before positioning for additional gains. Any meaningful corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited. Silver attracts some dip-buying near the $21.25 area on Wednesday and climbs back to the very important 200-day SMA during the early European session. The white metal, however, remains below the highest level since June 22 touched the previous day and is currently placed around the mid-$21.00s. Looking at the broader picture, the overnight sustained breakout through the $21.00 mark was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. That said, RSI (14) on the daily chart has moved on the verge of breaking into the overbought territory. This makes it prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond a technically significant moving average before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. The XAGUSD might then accelerate the momentum and aim to reclaim the $22.00 round-figure mark. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $22.30-$22.35 region, which is closely followed by the June swing high, around mid-$22.00s. The latter should act as a key pivotal point and a tough nut to crack for bulls. That said, some follow-through buying will set the stage for an extension of the bullish trajectory. On the flip side, any meaningful pullback now seems to find decent support around the $21.00 mark. Any subsequent fall could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the mid-$20.00s, or the overnight swing low. Failure to defend the said support levels might negate the near-term positive bias and make the XAGUSD vulnerable to dropping back to test levels below the $20.00 psychological mark. Silver daily chart  

According to the data provided by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), holdings of physical silver held in London vaults decreased sharply in October to 26,502 tonnes which is lower by 2.2% compared to the previous month. The value of holdings stood at $16.3 billion which is about 883,417 silver bars. "This is the lowest amount of silver held in the vaults since reporting started in July 2016," the LBMA said in its report. The drop in silver holdings is explained by strong demand for the physical metal. "The decline reflected the ongoing strength of coin and bar demand, especially in the key US and German markets," Philip Newman, the Managing Director at Metal Focus, said. High demand is coming from India which is partly responsible for low silver inventories. "Indian October imports appear to have still been sizeable, albeit considerably lower than September's near record high of 1,700t. The lower total for October may reflect the impact on the Indian market of higher rupee prices earlier last month," Newman said. "Our Mumbai team noted that silver demand eased somewhat during Diwali, in contrast to gold, which enjoyed double-digit gains during the festival." At the same time, the amount of gold also dropped to 9,308 tonnes, down from September values. Gold held in the vaults was valued at $490.5 billion which is approximately 744,662 gold bars. LBMA's statistics include the holdings of the London commercial vaults and the Bank of England's gold holdings. The UK's central bank does not hold any silver. MKS PAMP's head of metals strategy Nicky Shiels said that silver is well positioned for some upside in prices. On Tuesday, the price of silver reached its highest value in more than four months. Thus, Comex silver futures for December were last seen trading at $21.65, having gained 3.49% in a day. In the spot market, silver is trading at $21.642. Both gold and silver prices were boosted by rapid profit taking on short positions in the futures market as well as by rising demand for safe-haven assets amid a sell-off in the crypto market.       Relevance up to 10:00 2022-11-10 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/326638

Silver reverses an intraday dip to sub-$21.00 levels, though lacks follow-through buying. Repeated failures to find acceptance above the 200 DMA warrant some caution for bulls. A convincing break below the weekly low is needed to negate any near-term positive bias. Silver attracts some dip-buying on Thursday and stalls the previous day's retracement slide from the $21.60 area or the lowest level since June 22. The intraday bounce from sub-$21.00 levels, however, lacks follow-through as traders keenly await the release of the crucial US consumer inflation figures. From a technical perspective, the XAGUSD, so far, has struggled to make it through the very important 200-day SMA resistance. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the bullish territory and support prospects for additional gains. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the $21.60 area before confirming a fresh bullish breakout. The XAGUSD might then accelerate the momentum and aim to reclaim the $22.00 round-figure mark. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $22.30-$22.35 region, which is closely followed by the June swing high, around mid-$22.00s. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for an extension of the recent rally from the vicinity of the $18.00 mark. On the flip side, any meaningful pullback below the $21.00 mark could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the weekly low, around the $20.40 region. Failure to defend the said support might negate any near-term positive bias and drag the XAGUSD to the $20.00 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could get extended towards the $19.65 horizontal resistance breakpoint. Silver daily chart  

Silver gains traction for the second straight day and climbs to over a five-month peak. The technical set-up favours bullish traders and supports prospects for further gains. A convincing break below the $21.00 mark is needed to negate the positive outlook. Silver builds on the previous day's breakout momentum through the very important 200-day SMA and scales higher for the second successive day on Friday. The white metal jumps to over a five-month high during the early European session, though struggles to find acceptance above the $22.00 round-figure mark. The XAGUSD, however, sticks to its intraday gains and is currently placed near the $21.85-$21.90 region, still up nearly 0.90% for the day. The overnight rally from sub-$21.00 levels and a subsequent strength beyond a technically significant moving average supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. That said, RSI (14) on the daily chart is on the verge of breaking into overbought territory and warrants caution for aggressive bullish traders. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for additional gains. Nevertheless, the XAGUSD seems poised to climb beyond the $22.00 mark and could aim to test the next relevant hurdle near the $22.45-$22.50 region. The mentioned area marks a heavy supply zone and could act as a tough nut to crack for bulls. Some follow-through buying, however, will mark a fresh breakout and pave the way for a move towards reclaiming the $23.00 round figure. The momentum could eventually lift spot prices to May swing high, around the $23.25-$23.30 area. On the flip side, the daily low, around the $21.45 region, which coincides with the 200 DMA breakout point should protect the immediate downside. Any further pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $21.00 mark. A convincing break below might trigger some technical selling and drag the XAGUSD to the $20.40 support zone. Failure to defend the aforementioned support levels could shift the near-term bias in favour of bearish traders. Silver daily chart  

Silver reverses an intraday dip to the $21.30 area, though lacks follow-through buying. Repeated failures to capitalize on the move beyond 200 DMA warrants caution for bulls. A convincing break below the $21.00 mark will shift the bias in favour of bearish traders. Silver attracts some dip-buying near the $21.30 region on Monday and hits a fresh daily peak during the first half of the European session. The white metal is currently placed around the $21.65-$21.70 area, though remains below a five-month high touched on Friday. Looking at the broader picture, the XAGUSD, so far, has been struggling to capitalize on its positive move beyond the very important 200-day SMA. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. From current levels, the multi-month high, around the $22.05 region, could act as an immediate hurdle. The next relevant resistance is pegged near the $22.45-$22.50 supply zone, which if cleared will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and pave the way for additional gains. The XAGUSD might then accelerate the momentum towards the $23.00 mark and eventually climb to the May swing high, around the $23.25-$23.30 area. Given that RSI on the daily chart is on the verge of breaking into the overbought zone, the latter should act as a tough nut to crack for bulls. On the flip side, the daily low, around the $21.35 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any further pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $21.00 mark, which should now act as a pivotal point for short-term traders. A convincing break below could trigger some technical selling and drag the XAGUSD to the $20.40 support zone. Failure to defend the said support levels might negate the near-term positive outlook and shift the bias in favour of bearish traders. Silver daily chart  

Silver regains some traction and stalls the overnight pullback from a multi-month high. The emergence of fresh buying near the very important 200 DMA favours bullish traders. The lack of follow-through buying warrants caution before positioning for further gains. Silver attracts some buying near the $21.40 region on Wednesday and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's sharp retracement slide from over a five-month high. The white metal climbs back above the mid-$21.00s during the early European session, though lacks follow-through. From a technical perspective, the emergence of dip-buying near the very important 200-day SMA favours bullish traders. The positive outlook is reinforced by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in bullish territory. That said, the metal's inability to capitalize on the modest intraday uptick warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move. In the meantime, any subsequent move up beyond the $21.70 horizontal barrier could face resistance near the $22.00 round-figure mark. This is closely followed by the multi-month peak, around the $22.25 region, which if cleared will set the stage for additional gains. The XAGUSD might then accelerate the momentum towards the $22.50-$22.60 supply zone and eventually aim to reclaim the $23.00 mark. On the flip side, the $21.40-$21.30 area might continue to protect the immediate downside ahead of a strong horizontal resistance breakpoint now turned support near the $21.00 mark. A convincing break below will make the XAGUSD vulnerable to test the next relevant support near the $20.40-$20.35 region. The corrective slide could get extended and drag spot prices towards the $20.00 psychological mark. Silver daily chart  

Silver completed an expanded ending diagonal with the test of 17.56 and is ready to rally higher in the weeks/months ahead. We are looking for resistance near 22.51 to reject the first attempt to break through as the cause for a temporary setback to support near 20.46. This price action will be followed by the next major rally higher towards 24.90. A break above the resistance line will call for a retest of strong resistance near 30. Only a clear break above here will open the upside for a stronger rally towards the all-time high at 50.00. Relevance up to 07:00 2022-11-18 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301361

Silver we do have a sell signal after a new high & significantly lower close yesterday. I am watching for a small head & shoulders pattern to form on the short term charts for confirmation. WTI Crude December remains in a volatile sideways trend. Impossible to read day to day as we are up one day, down the next day. Update daily by 05:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Gold could be on the turn after a very fast $170 rally in just 2 weeks as we test important Fibonacci & 2 year trend line resistance at 1785/90. No sell signal yet but I feel we are due for a correction to the downside. A break below 1768 today should be confirmation of a move towards 1755 & support at 1750/45 for profit taking on shorts. Strong Fibonacci resistance at 1785/90 then further important 500 & 200 day moving average resistance at 1800/05. I think Gold will reverse from one of these 2 areas. A sustained break above 1810 is a buy signal. Silver holding above the 200 day moving average at 2155/35 was a buy signal targeting 2220/30 which was hit yesterday with a high for the day exactly here. However prices collapsed back to the 200 day moving average at 2150/40. We can trade this 80 tick range while we wait for the next signal. Yesterday I warned that a bounce today which holds 2200/2210 (a high for the day exactly here yesterday) & then breaks below the neck line at 2140/30 is a sell signal. So sell a break below 2130 today targeting 2115/10 & 2085/80, perhaps as far as strong support at 2050/40.

Silver is testing the $22 per ounce mark today and crossed it briefly yesterday. Although Gold marks the fifth consecutive session of back-to-back gains, Silver may have been one step ahead in this market cycle. In early November, the price of Silver pushed up from the 50-day moving average, which had worked as a support for a week and a half before, as the metal was bought off intraday on dips under this line. Further, while the S&P500 and stock markets, in general, were recovering from the not-so-dovish Fed comments, Silver rallied more than 7% on solid NFP data, leaving the other precious metals behind. This was a clear game-changer event for this market. By rising in the following days, the price has reached its 200-day moving average, which Gold, S&P500 and EURUSD have yet to do. Since late last week, Silver has been gaining support on declines towards this line, confirming a change in the long-term trend. Silver has already lingered near $22 in May and June, digesting the April collapse. There have also been repeated reversals in this area late last year and early this year. There might likely be some shake-out of market participants and partial profit-taking again. The strong price momentum at the start of November and an even more impressive 9% rise in early October point to a demand, which might turn the market around. This bullish reversal is probably happening in Gold, but it is a more liquid and thus "noisy" instrument. If we are correct, and after the local shake-out, silver goes further up, it could immediately target levels above $25, near the local peaks of March and April. If the strengthening does not fail again, the price may rise to $30 by August 2023. It will be premature to talk about the possibility of reaching the highs of 2012 ($35) or 2011 ($50), but targets near $25 by the end of the year and $30 eight months later look achievable.

Technical analysis: Silver has been trading upside this morning and there is chance for the bigger growth due to the strong upside trend in the background. Trading recommendation: Due to the strong upside pressure in the background and surfing the rising trend-line, I see potential for the further growth. Watch for the potential buying opportunities on the intraday dips with the upside objectives at the price of 21.33 and 21.94. MACD oscillator is showing fresh upside momentum, which is strong sign that buyers are in control. Key support is set at the price 21 Relevance up to 09:00 2022-11-19 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301596

Silver remains under some selling pressure on Monday and drops to a nearly two-week low. The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive bearish bets. A sustained strength beyond the $22.00 mark is needed to negate near-term negative bias. Silver comes under some renewed selling pressure on Monday and extends last week's retracement slide from the $22.25 area or its highest level since June 7. The white metal remains depressed through the first half of the European session and is currently placed around the $20.75-$20.70 region or a nearly two-week low. From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the $22.00 mark favours bearish traders. Furthermore, a subsequent weakness back below the very important 200-day SMA supports prospects for an extension of the corrective decline. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are still holding in the positive territory and warrant some caution. Hence, any further downfall is more likely to find decent support near the $20.40-$20.35 region. This is followed by the $20.00 psychological mark, which if broken decisively will add credence to the near-term negative outlook. The XAGUSD might then turn vulnerable to test the $19.60 resistance break point before dropping to the $19.15-$19.10 support en route to the $19.00 mark. On the flip side, attempted recovery might now confront stiff resistance near the $21.00 round figure. Any subsequent move-up is more likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the $21.40-$21.50 area (200 DMA). The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will negate any near-term negative outlook and shift the bias back in favour of bullish traders. The upward trajectory might then lift the XAGUSD further beyond the $21.70 intermediate hurdle, towards reclaiming the $22.00 mark. Bulls might eventually aim to challenge the multi-month high, around the $22.25 region. Silver daily chart  

Silver price fades bounce off 100-SMA, retreats from three-day-old resistance line. Bearish RSI divergence keeps sellers hopeful to aim for 200-SMA. Monthly support line adds to the downside filters, buyers need validation from $21.30. Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats from intraday high as sellers approach $21.00 during early Tuesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the bright metal eases from a downward sloping trend line from Thursday while consolidating the first daily gains in six. It’s worth noting that the lower high formation in the last three days join higher-high on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) placed at 14, which in turn portrays a hidden bearish divergence and suggests further downside of the metal. That said, the 100-SMA level surrounding $20.80 acts as an immediate support ahead of directing the XAG/USD bears towards the $20.00 psychological magnet. In a case where silver sellers keep the reins past $20.00, the 200-SMA and one-month-old ascending trend line, respectively near $19.95 and $19.80, could challenge the bearish bias for the metal. Alternatively, sustained trading beyond the aforementioned resistance line, close to $21.15 at the latest, could tease the XAG/USD buyers. Even so, October’s peak and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the metal’s upside between October and November, near $21.30, could challenge the silver bulls before directing them to the monthly high of $22.25. Silver: Four-hour chart Trend: Further weakness expected

If we look at the daily chart of the Silver commodity asset, it can be seen that the Bullish Pitchfork Channel has formed where Silver's position is currently trying to test the Upper Pitchfork where the level to be tested is 22,190, but because of its failure to reach the upper line of the Pitchfork, which made the Hagopian Rules condition so that Silver is now is below the Pitchfork Middle Line coupled with the emergence of deviations between price movements and the CCI indicator, if Silver turns down to penetrate below the 19,375 level, it is very likely that the Bull scenario described previously will cancel itself. Relevance up to 05:00 2022-11-26 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/114433

Silver comes under some selling pressure on Friday, though the downside remains cushioned. The technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying at lower levels. A sustained break below a trend-line resistance breakout point will negate the positive outlook. Silver edges lower on the last day of the week and moves further away from over a one-week top, around the $21.65-$21.70 region touched on Thursday. The white metal remains on the defensive through the early European session and is currently placed just below the mid-$21.00s. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD, so far, has managed to defend the 200-hour SMA. Against the backdrop of a convincing breakout through a one-week-old descending trend-line resistance on Wednesday, the set-up favours bullish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. The constructive outlook is reinforced by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in bullish territory. That said, technical indicators on the 1-hour chart have just started gaining negative traction and warrant some caution amid relatively thin liquidity conditions in the markets. Nevertheless, the XAG/USD seems poised to surpass the overnight swing high, around the $21.65-$21.70 region, and reclaim the $22.00 mark. This is followed by a five-month high, around the $22.25 zone, above which spot prices could climb to the $22.50-$22.60 area en route to the $23.00 round figure. On the flip side, the $21.00 mark could act as an immediate support ahead of the ascending trend-line resistance breakpoint, currently around the $20.80 region. A convincing break below the latter could negate the positive outlook and possibly shift the near-term bias in favour of bearish traders. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the downfall to the $20.60-$20.55 area (weekly low) before eventually dropping to challenge the $20.00 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling might expose the $19.00 round-figure mark, with some intermediate support near the $19.65-$19.60 region. Silver 1-hour chart  

Summary:  Commodity markets maintain a commanding lead over asset classes, such as bonds and stocks, as we head towards the final few weeks of trading in 2022. China lockdowns remain a temporary concerns for crude oil and other China-centric commodities while others like copper, silver and gold have enjoyed the softer dollar and the FOMC showing willingness to slow its pace of rate hike. We take a look at some of the key battlefields that may end up determine the direction commodities will travel into 2023. Commodity markets maintain a commanding lead over asset classes, such as bonds and stocks, as we head towards the final few weeks of trading in 2022. A year that, despite several headwinds, has yielded strong returns – with the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return index trading up close to 20% on the year. Following on from a strong finish to 2021 – driven by a post-Covid surge in demand for goods fuelled by a wall of fiscal stimulus and coordinated monetary support – the year started on tear. With demand rising strongly at a time of under-investments, the attention abruptly turned to supply worries following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions against Russia and risk to supply of key food commodities from Ukraine led to price spikes across all commodity markets, not least energy, grains and metals. As a result of this, the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return index spiked by more than 25% during the first quarter before spending the following months slowly deflating. However, despite numerous headwinds, such as the strongest dollar rally in years, rolling Covid related lockdowns in China and central banks hiking rates in order to kill inflation at the expense of growth, the commodity sector has performed very well, as demonstrated by the near 20% year-to-date return. Heading into 2023, four major themes will help determine the direction of the market: The depth of an incoming recession currently being priced in by the market through the most inverted US yield curve since the early 1980s A recession forcing the US Federal Reserve to change its focus from rate hikes to economic support, potentially before inflation has reached a satisfactory low level, thereby supporting a reversal of the dollar and Treasury yields. A reopening in China leading to a stimulus fuelled recovery in demand for industrial metals and energy. The duration of the war in Ukraine and its potential impact on supply of key commodities from crude oil and gas to wheat and key industrial metals. Recession versus tight supply The risk of an economic downturn at a time of tight supply of several major commodities will be one of the key battlegrounds that, together with the strength of a post-Covid recovery in China, will help determine the direction of commodities in 2023. Following months of aggressive rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve is now signalling a slowing pace of future rate hikes – with the eventual peak rate being determined by incoming data. The US bond market is already telling the Fed that it may have overdone the monetary tightening, with the yield spread between the 3-month treasury bill versus the 10-year treasury note tumbling to a twenty-year low at minus 64 basis point. An inverted level of this magnitude has only been seen prior to three previous recessions. Short-term interest rates have been driven higher by the Fed’s actions to raise the overnight Fed Fund rates, while longer-dated bond yields are lower on the prospect of slower growth (or even a recession) together with anchored long-term inflation. You can read more in this fixed income update from my colleague Redmond Wong in Hong Kong. Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Commodities have seen a strong November so far as the Bloomberg Commodity index trading up 3.4%, with gains being led by industrial and precious metals. This is despite the daily news of a worsening situation in China, where local officials battling with a record number of Covid cases are once again under pressure to implement President Xi’s strict and increasingly unpopular Covid zero policy. In order to support the economy, the People’s Bank of China, stepped in Friday and cut banks reserve requirement ratio by 0.25%. While the energy sector has struggled amid a seasonal slowdown in demand that was increased by the developments in China, other markets, especially precious metals, have found support from the drop in long-end yields and a dollar which has softened by almost five percent this month. Driven by a lower-than-expected US CPI print earlier this month, emerging weakness in US economic data and the publishing of the minutes from the recent Federal Reserve meeting which discussed moderating the pace of future rate hikes. Cycle low in gold, silver and copper? Following developments that have supported a strong rebound in gold, silver and copper, as well as the 170 dollar rally from what increasingly looks like a cycle low around $1615, gold spent the past week consolidating before finding support in the $1735 area. Overall, Saxo maintains its long-held bullish view on gold, and with that more so for silver. This is primarily driven by a combination of an incoming economic slowdown and major repricing as the market realises long-term inflation will settle at a higher level than the sub 3% currently being priced in. However, with a continued lack of buying interest from ETF investor and increased competition from bonds as yields drop, a further gold extension above the important $1800 area will likely require further declines in the yields and the dollar or some other catalyst that sees a run to safety. A technical update from Kim Cramer, our Technical Analyst, can be found here. Grains sector weakness led by wheat At the bottom of the performance table, we find the grains sector. Grains are heading for a monthly loss, primarily driven by weakness in wheat prices in the US and Europe. The weakness is driven by a continuation of the Ukraine grains corridor and a bumper Russian crop looking for a home around the world. Speculators have responded to the general weakness by cutting the total net long across the six major grains futures contract to a three-month low at 430k contracts. According to the latest Commitments of Traders Report covering the week to November 15, speculators had the biggest one-week clear-out of corn longs since August 2019. Meanwhile, the wheat net short extended to a 27-month high at 47k contracts with soybeans and soymeal also suffering setbacks.   Crude oil troubled by China lockdowns and recession worries Crude oil trades lower for a third consecutive week as demand fears, especially from an increasingly locked down China, weigh on sentiment. A G7-sponsored price-cap plan on Russian oil looks dead in the water as EU countries struggle to agree on a level – the result being either no cap or a level so high that it will not have any meaningful impact on supply, led alone Russia’s response. The 12-month futures spread in WTI and Brent have both weakened to the lowest backwardation since last December, reflecting a market concerned about recession and a seasonal slowdown in demand hurting the front month contracts. In addition, the fact that the market is not pricing in a premium for oil ahead of the December 5 EU embargo on Russian seaborne crude exports highlights the impact of a sharp slowdown in China – the world’s biggest importer of crude oil. Middle East producers have seen spot premiums for key Persian Gulf graded oil, decline sharply after commanding elevated premiums since the invasion of Ukraine when many buyers started to look elsewhere than Russia, thereby lifting demand for Mideast crude. The slowdown in demand from China will be temporary but having unsuccessfully fought Covid outbreaks with lockdowns for months, the prospect for an improvement looks month away. This is unless Chinese officials start following the 20-point plan to ease Covid Zero policies that were issued earlier this month by the health authorities. Brent trades near the lower end of its established range, but with multiple uncertainties related to demand and supply, the prospect of a downside extension seems limited in our opinion. Source: Saxo   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/commodities-torn-between-recession-and-tight-supply-focus-25112022

Silver price (XAG/USD) bounces off the daily lows surrounding $21.00 to $21.25 as European traders brace for the key week on Monday. In doing so, the bright metal justifies the mixed signals from the options market, as well as the risk-off mood. That said, the one-month daily risk reversal (RR), a gauge of call options to put options, dropped in the last fortnight to the latest weekly print of -0.040. It’s worth noting, however, that the receding bearish bias appeared to have challenged the XAG/USD buyers. Even so, the broad risk-aversion wave, due to the Covid fears, seems to keep the pair buyers hopeful. That said, the record-high daily virus infections from China and the protests to ease the Zero-Covid policy seemed to challenge the market sentiment of late. On the contrary, alleged defense from Chinese authorities to safeguard equities appeared to trigger the XAG/USD’s latest rebound. Above all, silver remains on the bear’s radar as the options market flashes downbeat signals, even if being softer of late. Also read: EUR/USD Analysis: Bulls turn cautious near 200-DMA amid China’s COVID-19 jitters  

Silver, although avoided by most investors, saw record demand, thanks to attention from major fashion houses around the world. A recent article in The New York Times said silver jewelry was featured at the European Fine Art Fair in Maastricht, Netherlands. Haute couture jewelers Boucheron and Buccellati also unveiled their silver creations in Paris this summer. In October, Elisabetta Cipriani showcased a necklace called Vortice II, which was created by the British artist-jeweler John Moore. The piece, consisting of pieces of silver connected by a rubber band, cost more than $29,000. Metals Focus said in its latest report that silver demand increased by 235 million ounces this year, up 29% year-on-year. Leading the gains is India, which accounts for almost half of global demand. Some analysts say consumers are attracted to the metal because its price is lower compared to gold. The gold/silver ratio is currently hovering near the highest level in more than two years, with gold prices trading around $1,740 an ounce, and silver at around $21 an ounce. Along with the price differential, an article in The New York Times noted an increase in the artistic appeal of silver. "Some customers prefer color, while others are attracted by price," said Alyse Chirumbole, director of jewelry and watches at online retailer Threads Styling. "Silver is a sharper and more modern way to wear jewelry, especially for younger customers," she added. Parisian jeweler Amelie Huynh also used silver in her designs. She said their silver pieces are 30-40% cheaper than their gold equivalents despite having high labor costs. Silver is a very soft metal, while sterling silver is traditionally blended with copper, which makes it harder.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 10:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/328438

Silver seems to struggle to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick on Wednesday. Acceptance above the 200-hour SMA supports prospects for some meaningful gains. A sustained break below the $21.00 mark is needed to negate the positive outlook. Silver edges higher on Wednesday, albeit lacks bullish conviction and remains below the overnight swing high through the early European session. The white metal is currently placed around the $21.30-$21.35 area and so far, has managed to hold above the 200-hour SMA. From a technical perspective, the overnight goodish intraday rally from static support just below the $21.00 mark favours bullish traders. Furthermore, positive oscillators on hourly/daily charts support prospects for some meaningful intraday upside for the XAG/USD. That said, any subsequent move up might continue to confront stiff resistance near the $21.60-$21.70 supply zone. Some follow-through buying should allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $22.00 round-figure mark and retest a five-month high, around the $22.25 zone. On the flip side, the 200-hour SMA, currently around the $21.15 area, is likely to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $21.00-$20.90 strong support. A convincing break below the latter could negate the positive outlook and shift the bias in favour of bearish traders. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the downfall to the $20.60-$20.55 area before eventually dropping to challenge the $20.00 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could further get extended towards a strong horizontal resistance breakpoint, around the $19.60 region. Silver 1-hour chart  

Silver hits a fresh multi-month peak on Thursday, albeit lacks follow-through buying. The technical set-up favours bullish traders and supports prospects for further gains. Dips to the $21.70-60 resistance breakpoint could be seen as a buying opportunity. Silver climbs to a nearly six-month high on Thursday, though the intraday positive move stalls ahead of the mid-$22.00s. The white metal retreats to the lower end of its daily trading range during the early European session and is currently placed around the $22.25-$22.20 region. From a technical perspective, the overnight sustained breakout through the $21.60-$21.70 supply zone and a subsequent move beyond the $22.00 mark was seen as a fresh trigger for bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the positive territory and are still far from being in the overbought zone. This, in turn, supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the XAG/USD. Hence, any follow-through pullback below the $22.00 mark might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited near the $21.70-$21.60 resistance breakpoint. This is followed by the very important 200-day SMA, around the $21.35-$21.30 region, which should act as a pivotal point. A convincing break below the latter could drag the XAG/USD below the $21.00 mark, to the $20.85-$20.80 support zone. On the flip side, the multi-month peak, around the $22.40 region, could offer some resistance to the XAG/USD. Some follow-through buying, however, will reaffirm the positive outlook and set the stage for an extension of the upward trajectory. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the momentum and aim to reclaim the $23.00 round figure, with some intermediate resistance near the $22.70 area. Silver 4-hour chart  

Silver price remains on pressured around intraday low after reversing from multi-day high. Overbought RSI triggered pullback but bears need validation from three-week-old horizontal support. XAG/USD bulls will wait for clear break of two-month-old resistance line for re-entry. Silver price (XAG/USD) snaps a three-day uptrend as it retreats from the highest levels since early May, marked the previous day, to $22.60 on Friday. Although the cautious mood ahead of the US employment report for November could be held responsible for the metal’s pullback, overbought RSI also teased intraday bears of the commodity. Furthermore, the failures to provide a sustained break of an upward-sloping resistance line from October add strength to the corrective moves. However, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since November 11, around the $22.00 threshold, restricts the short-term downside of the Silver price. Following that, a monthly support line near $21.25 appears the last defense of the XAG/USD buyers. In a case where the Silver price remains bearish past $21.25, the $21.00 and the late November lows near $20.60 should quickly return to the chart. Meanwhile, sustained trading beyond the two-month-old ascending resistance line, close to $22.75 by the press time, appears necessary to convince the Silver buyers. Even so, the $23.00 round figure and May’s high near $23.30 could act as extra filters to the north before giving control to the XAG/USD bulls. Silver price: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

Summary:  The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return index traded up 2.7% in November, thereby driving the index to a 19% gain on the year. Led by precious and industrial metals which following several challenging months found support as the dollar weakened and bond yields dropped in response to lower-than-expected CPI and emerging weakness in US economic data. Developments leading to speculation that the US Federal Reserve may soon slow its pace of rate hikes. Also, China signaling a more pragmatic approach to Covid controls potentially laying the fundation for additional metal support in the coming months The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return index traded up 2.7% in November, thereby driving the index to a 19% gain on the year. The strong gains among industrial and precious metals offset the minor decline in energy and grains prices. Following several challenging months, the metal sectors found support from a weaker dollar and sharply lower bond yields, both driven by a lower-than-expected US CPI print last month. The emerging weakness in US economic data has led to speculation that the US Federal Reserve may soon slow its pace of rate hikes. A development that was confirmed by Fed Chair Powell in a speech on Wednesday when he signaled a smaller December rate hike as he presented a case for achieving lower inflation without tipping the economy into a deep recession. Whether successful or not may turn out to be a major driver of risk sentiment into 2023, with precious metals especially standing to benefit should he fail. The industrial metal sector jumped 14.5% on the month, thereby reducing the year-to-date loss to 4.5%. The primary driver, apart from the softer dollar, is the optimism that China may shift away from Covid Zero policies and provide additional stimulus to boost demand in the top metal-consuming economy. Copper jumped 11% last month to record its best month since April 2021 and its first monthly advance since March. Having started the year on a high note driven by post-Covid optimism, the subsequent and prolonged Covid zero focus in China drove the price sharply lower from March onwards. The result of this is a metal that, despite the strong November, remains down 17% on the year. The precious metal sector also recorded a strong month of November as the Bloomberg Precious metal index rose by 8%, thereby reducing the annual loss to just 5%. Silver led the charge with a 16% gain to $22.16, clawing back half of the losses that was seen between the March peak at $30 and the September low at $17.50. Gold, out of favor for months by traders and investors as the dollar and Treasury yields surged higher, managed a strong turnaround, rising 8% to reach $1768 – thereby reducing the year-to-date loss in dollar terms to just 3.3%. This is impressive in a year that, despite the recent weakness, has seen the dollar surge by 8% while US ten-year real yields have surged higher by around 2.3%. Silver’s impressive rally has continued into December with the price breaking above $22.25 – a 50% retracement of the March to September selloff – and on route to the next level of resistance at $23.35. Meanwhile, gold is currently working its way through a key area of resistance between $1788 and $1808. However, with the market increasingly focusing on a Fed pivot, potentially without getting inflation under control, an upside break would confirm a cycle low around $1615 and with that a potential push higher.  Source: Saxo Crude oil recovers from unwarranted China demand scare The energy sector suffered a small setback in November but remains up 55% on the year due to very strong gains in diesel and gasoline as well as natural gas. In November, all the major contracts, with the exception of natural gas, traded lower as the market took fright from continued lockdowns in China, a seasonal slowdown in demand and a steeply inverted US yield curve increasingly pointing in the direction of a sharp economic slowdown next year. Crude oil spent the week recovering from a ten-month low after renewed and, in our opinion, unfounded worries about a deteriorating demand outlook in China. The bounce was supported by a weaker dollar and traders assessing signals that China may soften its Covid Zero policy after China’s Vice Premier in charge of fighting Covid acknowledged the Omicron variant is less deadly. These developments forced a reduction in recently established short positions ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting. A meeting that is likely to be strong on words but low on actions, considering the unclear impact of an EU embargo on Russian oil starting on 5 December. In addition, US crude stocks fell by 12.6 million barrels last week, the biggest decline since June 2019, while US crude and product export hit a record close to 12 million barrels per day – highlighting continued strong demand from buyers looking for alternative supplier than Russia. In addition, the US government is likely to halt sales of crude from its Strategic Reserves soon, thereby removing an important source of supply which has seen 205 million barrels flow into the market this year. Recession versus tight supply The risk of an economic downturn at a time of tight supply of several major commodities will be one of the key battlegrounds that, together with the strength of a post-Covid recovery in China, will help determine the direction of commodities in 2023. Following months of aggressive rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve is now signalling a slowing pace of future rate hikes – with the eventual peak rate being determined by incoming data. From an investment perspective, the commodity sector has beaten most other asset classes this year and, despite a recent softness and easing of tightness, we maintain the view that investors should maintain a broad exposure to commodities into 2023. The one-year implied roll yield, using a weighted average of the 23 commodities in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, remains positive, albeit lower than at the start of the year. The positive roll yield or backwardation signals a tight market outlook across most commodities currently led by commodities from energy, grains and softs.   Backwardation and its positive impact on investment returns A positive roll yield, i.e. selling an expiring futures contract, at a higher price than where the next is bought, has supported the strong return investors have achieved through an investments via futures and ETFs this year. The chart below shows the year-to-date performance of an ETF tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index and the Bloomberg Spot index which excludes the extra income achieved from the roll yield. Year to date, the ETF has realised a 17.6% return while the underlying spot index has delivered a six percent lower return. We expect the tailwind from tight markets trading in backwardation will rise again over the coming months. Not least driven by increased tightness across the energy complex as the embargo on Russian oil and, from next year, fuel products increasingly adds upward pressure on the front end of the forward curve. Source: Bloomberg   Source: Weekly Commodity Update: Strong November led by metals | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Silver surrenders its intraday gains to the highest level since late April touched earlier this Monday. The technical setup still favours bullish traders and supports prospects for further appreciating move. A convincing breakdown below the 200-day SMA is needed to negate the near-term positive outlook. Silver retreats from the mid-$23.00s or the highest level since late April touched earlier this Monday and drops to the lower end of its daily range during the early European session. The XAG/USD is currently trading just above the $23.00 round-figure mark, up around 0.10% for the day. Slightly overbought RSI (14) on the daily chart turns out to be the only factor prompting some profit-taking around the XAG/USD. The near-term bias, however, remains tilted in favour of bullish traders in the wake of last week's sustained breakout through a technically significant 200-day SMA and the $22.00 mark. Hence, any subsequent pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited, at least for the time being. From current levels, any further slide below the $23.00 mark is likely to find decent support near the $22.60-$22.55 horizontal resistance breakpoint. The next relevant support is pegged near the $22.00 mark, below which the XAG/USD could slide further to the $21.40 area. The latter marks the 200 DMA and should act as a strong base. A convincing break below will negate the near-term positive outlook and pave the way for a deeper corrective pullback. On the flip side, the multi-month peak, around the $23.50-$23.55 region, could act as an immediate resistance. Some follow-through buying should allow the XAG/USD to aim back to reclaim the $24.00 mark for the first time since April. The positive momentum could get extended towards the $24.25-$24.30 zone en route to the $24.55-$24.60 region. Silver daily chart  

Silver pares intraday gains after reversing from seven-month high. 50-HMA breakdown keeps sellers hopeful but sluggish MACD immediate support line restricts downside moves. 200-HMA, nearly descending trend line act as additional trading filters. Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats to $22.35 heading into Tuesday’s European session. Even so, the bright metal remains mildly bid while consolidating the biggest daily loss in 10 weeks, marked the previous day. It should be noted that the bullish MACD signals challenge the quote’s downside momentum. That said, the bullion’s latest losses could be linked to the failure to cross a one-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $22.40-45. However, an upward-sloping trend line from November 29, near $22.25, restricts the immediate downside of the XAG/USD price. Should the metal breaks immediate support, the 200-HMA level surrounding $21.90, could act as the last defense of the Silver bulls. On the contrary, an upside break of $22.45 isn’t an open welcome to the XAG/USD buyers as a downward-sloping trend line from Monday restricts immediate upside near $22.55. Also acting as an upside hurdle is the 50-HMA level near $22.75. To sum up, the Silver price remains sidelined between the 50-HMA and the 200-HMA but the odds favoring upside are higher. Silver price: Hourly chart Trend: Limited upside expected ◀

Looking at the 1H timeframe, we see the development of the corrective wave b, which is part of the global zigzag. Correction b most likely takes the form of a triple zigzag â“Œ-Ⓧ-â“Ž-Ⓧ-Ⓩ. The first four primary waves are completed, and the last wave Ⓩ is still under construction. It is assumed that the primary wave Ⓩ will be a double zigzag of the intermediate degree (W)-(X)-(Y). After the end of the actionary wave (W), the price began an upward movement in the intervening wave (X). Like wave (W), intervening wave (X) may end in the form of a minor double zigzag W-X-Y. The end of the bullish trend is expected near 24.788. At that level, wave (X) will be at 76.4% of wave (W). According to an alternative scenario, the XAGUSD pair has completed the construction of an ascending intervening wave (X) of the intermediate degree. As in the main version, it has the form of a double zigzag W-X-Y. Read next: The Australian Dollar Failed To Hold Its Gains, The Pound Strengthened Against The US Dollar| FXMAG.COM Thus, in the next coming trading days, we can expect a fall in the XAGUSD rate and the formation of a bearish actionary wave (Y). Perhaps this wave will have a standard zigzag shape A-B-C, as shown in the chart. The first target, where the bears are aimed, is located at the previous minimum of 17.538, which was marked by the actionary intermediate wave (W).

Silver price is juggling around $22.60 amid a quiet market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to cross the critical hurdle of 105.40. The 200-EM is aiming higher which indicates that the upside trend is intact. Silver price (XAG/USD) is displaying a sideways auction profile around the immediate hurdle of $22.60 in the early European session. The white metal has turned balance after correcting from the critical resistance of $22.80. The market mood is extremely quiet as investors are awaiting a potential trigger for fresh impetus. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to cross the critical hurdle of 105.40. S&P500 futures are displaying a subdued performance following Wednesday’s choppy movement. On an hourly scale, Silver price recovered firmly after testing the horizontal support placed from November 15 high at $22.25. The precious metal is testing the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $22.60 after a sheer recovery. Meanwhile, the 200-EMA at $22.20 is aiming higher, which indicates that the long-term trend is bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is aiming to reclaim the bullish range of 60.00-80.00 for a decisive rally. Should the Silver price break above Friday’s high at $22.82, bulls will drive the asset toward the round-level resistance at $23.00, followed by Monday’s high at $23.52. On the flip side, Silver price will witness a steep fall if its surrenders the 200-EMA at $22.20. An occurrence of the same will drag the asset toward November 24 high at $21.67. A breakdown of $21.67 support will expose the asset for more downside toward November 28 low of around $21.00. Silver hourly chart  

Stocks fell for a fifth day, but the sovereign bonds gained, a hint that the market catalyzer shifted from the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing – where stocks and bonds fall at the same time, to recession fears, where stocks remain under pressure, while investors seek refuge in safer sovereign assets. Yields and USD The falling yields kept the US dollar under pressure below the critical 200-DMA, which stands at 105.75. American crude oil One big move of the day was oil. The barrel of American crude slipped below the $73 floor and fell to $71.70 on the back of rising recession fears. Oil And note that we have started seeing a structural change in the oil markets. Crude price curve was in backwardation up until a month ago. But over the past weeks we started seeing the front-end of the price curve falling and even going back to contango. I discuss in this episode what that means for oil prices. Gold Elsewhere, news that China increased its bullion reserves for the first time in three years have a boost to gold and silver. The mint ratio fell below 80, but gold could still be a better choice for those preparing their portfolios for recession. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 Markets price in recession 2:36 Oil slips below $72pb 3:57 Is contango coming & what does it mean? 6:25 Loonie to remain under the pressure of weaker oil 8:00 Gold or silver?! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Crude #oil #contango #backwardation #energy #crisis #recession #fear #market #selloff #USD #EUR #Gold #silver #mint #ratio #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Silver price remains firmer inside the four-day-old bullish channel. 200-HMA, weekly horizontal support zone challenge bears from retaking control. RSI conditions suggest further pullback but channel formation tests sellers. Silver price (XAG/USD) pares intraday gains around the weekly top, also the highest level in seven months, as bulls take a breather during early Friday morning in Europe. Even so, the bullion price prints the third consecutive intraday gains by the press time. In doing so, the bright metal retreats from the daily high as the RSI (14) takes a U-turn from the overbought territory, as well as breaks the short-term support line. However, an ascending trend channel formation, established on Tuesday, restricts short-term XAG/USD moves between $23.45 and $23.00. Even if the bright metal breaks the $23.00 support, the 200-HMA level surrounding $22.30 could challenge the bears. It’s worth noting that the one-week-long horizontal area surrounding the $22.00 round figure appears the last defense of the silver buyers. On the contrary, an upside break of the $23.45 hurdle needs validation from the multi-day high marked on Monday around $23.51 to convince Silver buyers of further advances. Following that, March’s low near $24.00 and January’s high of $24.70 will gain the market’s attention. To sum up, the Silver price remains on the buyer’s radar unless the quote drops below $22.00. However, the upside room appears limited below $23.51. Silver: Hourly chart Trend: Bullish

With some facts on the 4-hour chart as follows: 1. The appearance of the Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. 2. Price movement inside the Bullish Pitchfork channel. 3. There is a Bullish 123 Pattern which is followed by several Ross Hooks (RH). 4. Golden Cross of EMA 21 and WMA 55. Where the four things above give an indication that Buyers are still dominating Silver commodity assets, in this case it seems that in the near future they will try to break above the nearest Ross Hook level, namely at level 23,630. If this level is successfully penetrated above, the Upper Line level of the Bullish Pitchfork will be the target. Silver is the main target of Silver, and if the momentum and volatility are sufficiently supportive then the 25,250 level will be the next target to be targeted unless on its way to the targets described earlier there is a sudden downward correction which is quite significant to pass the 21,995 level or Mid the level of the Bullish Pitchfork Channel then all the Bull scenarios previously described will become invalid.   Relevance up to 03:00 2022-12-16 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/115619

Silver price is oscillating around $23.70 as investors seek clarity on Fed’s policy. The asset has gradually corrected after a breakout of the volatility contraction pattern. Advancing 20-and 50-EMAs add to the upside filters. Silver price (XAG/USD) is displaying a sideways profile around the immediate cushion at $23.70 in the Asian session. The white metal is manifesting a lackluster performance as investors are awaiting Federal Reserve (Fed)’s monetary policy for fresh impetus. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is displaying a balanced profile as the market mood is extremely quiet ahead of Fed’s policy, which will guide investors for further action. Meanwhile, risk-perceived assets such as S&P500 futures have extended their gains in the Tokyo session. Silver price delivered a breakout of a volatility contraction chart pattern that results in wider ticks and heavy volume. The asset has corrected after printing a fresh seven-month high around $24.00.The white metal has dropped to near 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which might present a buying opportunity to investors who prefers to enter in an auction for a bargain buy. Meanwhile, the 50-EMA at $23.50 is aiming higher, which indicates that the upside trend is intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is looking to reclaim the bullish range of 60.00-80.00 to trigger bullish momentum. Should the asset Wednesday’s high at $23.80, bulls will drive the Silver price toward Tuesday’s high at $24.11. A break above the latter will expose the asset to refresh a five-month high above April 22 high at $24.66. Alternatively, a breakdown below Monday’s low at $23.11 will drag Silver price towards December 7 high at $22.72, followed by December 6 low at $22.03. Silver hourly chart  

Silver price fades bounce off 10-DMA, grinds lower of late. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, impending bear cross on MACD favor sellers. Six-week-old ascending trend line acts as the key support. Silver price (XAG/USD) fade the previous day’s recovery to around $23.25 during early Monday. In doing so, the bright metal retreats from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of March-August downside and the 10-DMA level. It’s worth noting that the stated Fibonacci level is also known as the golden ratio and is considered a strong technical resistance. Not only the metal’s pullback from the strong resistance but the looming bear cross on the MACD, as well as the nearly overbought RSI (14), also tease the Silver bears. However, a clear downside break of the 10-DMA support near $22.00 appears necessary to convince sellers. Following that, an upward-sloping trend line from November 03, close to $22.60 by the press time, could challenge the XAG/USD bears before directing them to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $22.25. If at all, the Silver bears keep the reins past $22.25, the odds of witnessing a slump toward October’s peak of $21.25 can’t be ruled out. On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $23.40 could recall the Silver buyers and can poke the monthly peak surrounding $24.15. Should the Silver buyers keep the driver’s seat past $24.15, April’s high near $26.25 will be in focus. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected

Silver price picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s pullback from eight-month high. XAG/USD seesaws around 22-month-old resistance line as prices portray bullish moving average crossover. Sellers need validation from June’s top to retake control. Silver price (XAG/USD) remains mildly bid around the eight-month high as it reverses the previous day’s pullback by rising to $24.00 during early Thursday. In doing so, the bright metal justifies firmer MACD signals and the bullish moving average crossover, also known as the Golden cross. That said, the 50-DMA pierces the 200-DMA from below, which in turn suggests the short-term upside of the Silver price. It’s worth noting, however, that a downward-sloping resistance line from February 2021, around $24.70, appears a tough nut to crack for the XAG/USD bulls during the quote’s further upside. In a case where the commodity prices rally beyond $24.70, the Silver buyers can easily aim for the yearly high marked in March at around $27.00. That said, April’s peak of $26.22 may act as a buffer during the run-up toward $27.00. On the contrary, pullback moves may aim for the $23.00 round figure before directing Silver bears toward the previous weekly low of $22.55. Following that, June’s high near $22.51 could act as the last defense of the Silver buyers. Should the metal price drop below $22.51, the monthly bottom surrounding $22.00 will be in focus. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected

The price of silver, expressed in U.S. dollars, has risen by almost 23 percent in the last three months. Thus, of the popular markets among investors, such as stock indexes, oil, and other metals, it boasts the potentially highest rate of return to this point. As recently as September, less than $18 was being paid for an ounce of the metal, to value it at nearly $23 by the end of December. What has changed in that time that could have led to such a rapid rise in the price of a popular alternative among investors to gold? According to data that mints publish, there are shortages of the raw material for coin production in the United States, so there may be shortages in other parts of the economy and industry as well. However, this is not due to above-average demand at this time. Demand has been above-average twice recently, which happened in the pandemic and during the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Now, however, it seems to be more stable, and the problems may lie more on the supply side. Unlike gold, which is easily renewable and melted down for new jewelry, for example, and rarely fails to undergo some form of recycling, the same could not be said for silver. It is estimated that about 60% of silver is used in industrial applications, leaving only 40% for investment. Of that 60% used in industrial applications, almost 80% ends up in landfills. This means that with mining problems and lack of recovery of the raw material, supply problems may continue. Hence, there could be a situation where demand exceeds supply, which could have a positive impact on the price. Source: Conotoxia MT5, XAGUSD, Weekly For example, there are shortages of disks in the US mints, which are used to mint the popular Silver American Eagle coin. Its price is about $36. So an ounce of physical silver costs about $36, while an ounce in contract costs about $23. This creates a divergence not seen for at least a decade. From this point of view, the divergence may be reduced over time. If silver supply does not increase, it is possible that the price of silver in contracts could rise toward the valuation of physical silver. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Silver picks up bids to print the first daily gains in three. Three-week-old bullish channel, ascending trend line from late October keep buyers hopeful. MACD signals challenge upside bias but bears should remain cautious beyond $21.25. Silver price (XAG/USD) welcomes buyers after bears failed to hold the castle following a two-day reign. That said, the bright metal picks up bids to refresh intraday high near $23.70 during early Friday. In doing so, the XAG/USD recovers from the 10-DMA support of $23.55 to print the first daily gains in three while staying inside an upward-sloping trend channel established in late November. Not only the aforementioned bullish channel, currently between $23.20 and $25.00, but a two-month-old ascending support line, close to $22.60, also challenges the Silver bears from taking control. Even if the commodity price drops below $22.60 support, the tops marked during November and October around $22.25 and $21.25, could challenge the downside momentum. Following that, a slump toward the $20.00 threshold can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, Silver price recovery initially aims for the $24.00 round figure ahead of challenging the monthly high surrounding $24.30. In a case where the XAG/USD remains firmer past $24.30, the aforementioned bullish channel’s top line near $25.00 could act as the last defense of sellers. Should the quote fail to reverse from $25.00, a run-up toward April’s high near $26.25 appears more likely. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected

Silver price has witnessed a sheer upside led by strength in risk-on profile. A slippage in the US PCE Price Index has trimmed US Dollar Index’s appeal. The RSI (14) has attempted to shift in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. Silver Price (XAG/USD) is facing barricades near $24.00 after a sheer upside in the Asian session. The strengthening of the risk appetite theme has impacted the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index opened on a weaker note to near 103.75 and dropped further to 103.60 as investors are dumping the safe-haven due to a drop in the United States Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)-Price Index. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields have slipped below 3.74% as investors see further decline in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) amid a decline in household expenditure. S&P500 futures have extended their gains after a revival move on Friday as equities are getting comfort from the risk-on profile. On an hourly scale, Silver Price has been supported by the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $23.50. The upward-sloping trendline placed from November 28 low around $20.90 will continue to act as a major cushion for the Silver price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has attempted to shift in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which will trigger a bullish momentum ahead. Going forward, a decisive break above the $24.00 resistance will expose Silver price for more upside towards the previous week’s high around $24.30, followed by April 22 high at $24.67. Alternatively, a break below December 22 low at $23.40 will drag the asset toward December 19 low at $22.84 and December 6 low at $22.03. Silver hourly chart  

Summary:  In this Special Edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast, host John J. Hardy discusses the wild year of 2022 for commodities and what may be in store for the commodities markets in 2023 with Saxo's Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole Hansen. We delve into what the forward curve is telling us, market positioning in commodities and zero in on Crude Oil, copper and the precious metals and Natural Gas. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com. Source: Podcast: Special Edition: Commodity Outlook for 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Blue line- support trend line Red lines- bearish RSI divergence Silver is trading above $24. Medium-term trend is bullish as price continues making higher highs and higher lows since August. Price is now trading at levels not seen since April of 2022. However there are increased chances of a reversal as the RSI is not following price to new highs. The RSI continues to provide lower highs. The bearish divergence by the RSI is an important warning that should not be ignored. This is not a reversal signal, but a warning of a weakening up trend. Support is found at $23.38 and is rising. A break below the blue trend line would be a reversal signal. Read next: GBP/USD Is Struggling, The Aussie Pair Have Good Day And Is Trading Above 0.67$, The EUR/USD Is Trading Above 1.0650| FXMAG.COM   Relevance up to 13:00 2022-12-28 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306447

Silver takes offers to refresh intraday low during the first negative daily performance in three. Mixed sentiment, firmer Treasury yields allow US Dollar recover amid holiday season. China-linked Covid optimism fails to defend XAG/USD buyers as US doubts Beijing’s lack of transparency. Silver price (XAG/USD) renews its intraday low near $23.95 as bears return to the table early Wednesday, after a two-day absence. The bright metal’s latest weakness could be linked to the US Dollar’s mildly positive performance, as well as doubts over China’s Covid-linked optimism. US Dollar Index (DXY) prints mild gains around 104.25 by the press time as it defends the previous day’s recovery moves during the sluggish session. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies also justifies the recently mixed US data, as well as mixed concerns surrounding the Fed’s next moves. US Good Trade Balance for November improved to $-83.3B versus $98.8B prior but the US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for October dropped to 8.6% YoY versus 9.7% expected and 10.4% previous readings. It’s worth noting that the previously mixed readings of the US inflation and growth figures raised doubts about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish move, especially after the US central bank appeared cautiously optimistic over the rate hikes in its latest monetary policy meeting. Elsewhere, China announced multiple measures to open national and international boundaries in a rush to convey the easing of COVID-19 fears. In doing so, the dragon nation initially ruled out the quarantine requirement for inbound travelers before stating that the nation will resume citizens' applications for ordinary passports for tourism and visits abroad from January 8, 2023. Even so, a US Official mentioned, per Reuters, that the US government may impose new COVID-19 measures on travelers to the United States from China over concerns about the "lack of transparent data" coming from Beijing. Against this backdrop, the 10-year Treasury bond yields remain sidelined near 3.85%, after refreshing the six-week high the previous day, whereas the S&P 500 Futures remain indecisive while tracking the mixed closing of the Wall Street benchmarks. Given the sluggish session and a light calendar, except for the US Pending Home Sales for November which holds the market consensus of 0.6% versus -4.6% previous readings, the Silver price is likely to extend the latest weakness amid firmer US Treasury bond yields. Technical analysis Although the double top formation near $24.30 lures Silver bears, the 21-DMA level near $23.30 restricts short-term XAG/USD downside.

The most interesting goods. Gold (GOLD) Gold is the most important precious metal in the world. Due to its attractive appearance, it is used primarily in jewelry. However, historically, gold was the first type of money, which was related to the chemical properties of this metal, as well as its appearance. Monetary systems around the world were also based on gold, although this changed with the collapse of the Bretton system Woods , which kept the ratio of gold prices to the U.S. dollar constant. Since then, in addition to being used in jewelry, gold has also served as an investment or a store of value (e.g. as a reserve in central banks). To a lesser extent, gold is also used in industry. The most important market report for gold is the quarterly World Gold Council Supply and Demand Report . It contains data on the use of metal in individual sectors, mining, international trade and the impact of market factors on prices. The report is released to the market approximately 1-1.5 months after the end of a given quarter. In addition, it is worth following data on the amount of gold in the possession of ETFs that hedge with this metal, or data on the positioning of speculative investors on this market. Investors interested in the gold market can take a riskier investment and invest in the world's largest gold mining companies such as Newmont NEM.US , Anglogold Ashanti AU.US , Barrick Gold GOLD.US or Wheaton resources WPM.US , which will also provide exposure to other precious metals. On the other hand, investors looking for a safe ETF that provides exposure to gold prices may lean towards iShares Physical Gold IGLN.UK. _ This fund hedges its investors' positions with physical gold deliveries, accumulates stocks of this metal and reports them regularly, thus attracting investors interested in investing in physical gold. Petroleum (OIL) Oil is by far the most important commodity in the world. Without oil, it would not be possible to travel or produce the plastic products that are essential in the modern world. Crude oil is mainly extracted from deep boreholes, either on land or in seas and oceans, but also from tar sands (mostly in Canada). The key report for the oil market is the DOE (US Department of Energy) report, presented every Wednesday at 4:30 p.m. Central European Time. Then, data on crude oil stocks, petroleum products, production, imports and exports are presented. This data only applies to the US, but since it is the most important market, this data shapes the behavior of prices in the market. In addition, every month OPEC, EIA and IEA publish reports on the demand and supply outlook. The OPEC report is released roughly 1.5 weeks into the month. Companies that typically benefit from oil price volatility include ExxonMobil XOM.US , Chevron CVX.US and Occidental Petroleum OXY.US , whose shares were purchased in Q1 2022 by Warren Buffett . Exposure to a diversified portfolio of oil exploration and trading companies is ensured by, among others, Euro-denominated ETF iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil&Gas Exploration UCITS SXEPEX.DE . Natural Gas (NATGAS) Along with crude oil and coal, natural gas is a key energy resource. Depending on where it is used, it is used for heating or for generating electricity. In the case of gas, the market is not homogeneous due to major problems with its transport. The price of gas transported by pipeline is much lower than gas that must be liquefied and shipped by ship. The most important producers of natural gas in the world are the United States, Russia, Arab countries and Australia. The largest importers are European countries, China, India and Japan. The most important report for the gas market is the weekly change in DOE inventories published every Thursday at 16:30 CET. In addition, it is worth following the daily change in gas stocks in Europe according to GIE ( Gas Infrastructure Europe) and TTF gas prices in the import-export hub in the Netherlands. These data may show how much demand for American gas may come from Europe. Volatility could then affect the shares of Cheniere Energy LNG.US , the company responsible for transporting LNG from the US to Europe. British may be worth mentioning gas ETF NGAS.UK , which tracks the natural gas sub -index offered by Bloomberg. Silver (SILVER) In terms of chemical properties, silver is very similar to gold, but because there is much more of it in the ground, it is also many times cheaper. Due to its price, this metal is used in industry in about 50%, but it also has its investment and jewelery significance. From a fundamental analysis point of view, it is useful to track the amount of silver held by ETFs, as well as the gold/silver price ratio, which shows whether a particular market is overbought or oversold relative to the long-term average. The metal is also dependent on copper as silver is mined together with this raw material. High copper production means new supply in the silver market. The key companies in the silver market sector are Pan American Silver (PAAS.US) , Fresnillo (FRES.UK) , Polymetal Silver Corp (POLY.UK) , Hecla Mining (HL.US) and KGHM (KGHM.PL) . The most popular ETF that allows you to invest in physical silver is iShares Physical Silver (ISLN.UK) . The leveraged ETF CFD Global X Silver Miners S (SIL.US) is also gaining popularity among speculators . Coffee (COFFEE) A very interesting aspect related to coffee is the fact that it is the second most traded commodity in the world after oil. On the other hand, the impact of the coffee trade on global GDP is negligible. Coffee belongs to the group of so-called. soft goods ( soft commodities ) and theoretically too high prices may lead to the search for alternative solutions. However, the final market price of coffee for the consumer depends only 1-2% on the price quoted on world stock exchanges. Coffee is grown mainly in the countries of South and Central America, Southeast Asia and Africa. There are two types of coffee: Arabica and Robusta . At XTB, we trade CFDs on Arabica coffee , which is definitely more popular and considered to be of higher quality. In the case of coffee, it is also worth tracking the daily change in stocks, tracked by ICE (International Commodity Exchange) and WASDE monthly report from USDA or CONAB monthly report from Brazil regarding production prospects. Companies that remain sensitive to the coffee market and prices include Starbucks (SBUX.US) and Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP.US) . Read next: The Future Outlook Of Commodities Market And How To Trade Them On A Short Position| FXMAG.COM

Markets worth watching US stock indices: US500, US100 There is an ongoing debate about the relationship between stock markets and inflation. Stocks are holding instruments covered by the real assets of the companies that issued them. Because inflation reflects increase in the prices of goods and services, should eventually translate into revenues of companies selling these goods and services. From this perspective, stocks can be seen as a hedge against inflation. However, looking at history, we can confidently say that there is no linear relationship between company earnings and stock prices. So-called the price-to-sales ratio can fluctuate significantly for a number of reasons. After first, even if higher prices translate into higher revenues, costs can increase in even faster pace. A period of high inflation creates a lot of uncertainty and some companies can not be able to maintain the current profit margin. Second, the stock market is always trying discount the future. And if that discounting is done using higher rates interest rates - typical of higher inflation - the present value of future gains will be lower. Because periods of high inflation in the US are rare and far apart in time, there is no such thing confirmed relationship. The S&P 500 hit a ten-year low in October 1974, just before the peak of inflation that year. However, the markets were much more overvalued back then - the index fell from the peak (in 1973) to the trough of 50%, and the price-earnings ratio was below 8 - almost 3 times lower than today. Moreover, the Fed has started to cut interest rates in November 1974, thus supporting the bull rally. Precious metals: GOLD, SILVER Commodities are considered a leading indicator of inflation as the prices of goods and even services are in highly dependent on raw material costs. Therefore, there is a belief that raw materials are a good hedge against inflation, and the first example that comes to mind is gold. Is it really so? Gold is an excellent diversifier for an investment portfolio due to its low and even negative correlation with other asset classes. But what about inflation? Gold tends to respond to relative dollar strength as well as changes in bond yields. We can see a very strong negative correlation between gold price changes and profitability bonds in the long term. Therefore, we are dealing with a relatively weak sentyment against gold in an environment of the highest inflation in the US in 40 years. Of course, gold can too respond to other risk factors, such as natural disasters or war, which the world unfortunately experienced this year, which for a short time pushed gold prices to historical levels maxima. As mentioned earlier, the key factors for the price of gold are changes in the level yields and valuation of the dollar. Further changes are the most important for the dollar and bond yields Fed interest rates. The dollar already seems to be very overbought, especially if we will look at historical standards and this could be an opportunity for gold. Of course, gold is still there relatively expensive in nominal terms, but high bond yields led to a significant drop in gold prices from near historical highs. Moreover, correcting prices for inflation, gold is not extremely expensive compared to the 1970s or even 1970s 2011. It is also worth mentioning that gold often retains its value during periods of recession, especially when compared to more volatile assets such as stocks.

If we look at the 4-hour chart, Silver commodity asset seems to be trying to test the resistance level at 24,075-24,232 if this level is successfully penetrated by Silver, then this commodity asset will continue its rally to test the top line of the Daily Bullish Pitchfork but if it fails If you penetrate the Resistance area level, this condition will become a Hagopian Rules condition which will bring Silver to depreciate, especially if it breaks below the 23,470 level, especially if it is followed by confirmation of the CCI indicator again dropping below level 0 and added to breaking below the -100 level, the scenario of a rally going up from Silver will become invalid and void by itself. Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-03 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/116739

Silver price needs to overstep $24.30 for a volatility contraction breakout. The asset is displaying topsy-turvy moves in a range of 23.45-24.30 for the past two weeks. Advancing 200-EMA indicates that the upside trend is still solid. Silver price (XAG/USD) is failing to sustain above the round-level resistance of $24.00. The white metal is expected to remain sideways as trading activity will remain quiet amid the festive mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply on Friday after a consolidation breakdown of the 103.47-104.57 range. S&P500 remained choppy on Friday but ended the last trading session of CY2023 with a mild sell-off. The 10-year US Treasury yields benefitted from caution in the global market and climbed to 3.88%. On a four-hour scale, the Silver price is displaying a volatility contraction chart pattern that displays lackluster performance but a breakout of the same results in heavy volume and wider ticks. The asset is displaying topsy-turvy moves in a range of 23.45-24.30 for the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $23.77 is overlapping with the Silver price, which indicates a consolidation on a short-term basis. While, the 200-period EMA at $22.75 is aiming higher, which indicates that the upside trend is still solid. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates directionless movement as investors await fresh impetus for a decisive move. For an upside, the Silver price needs to surpass December 21 high at $24.30, which will be a breakout of the volatility contraction and will drive the asset towards April 22 high at $24.67 followed by the psychological resistance at $25.00. On the flip side, a break below December 16 low at $22.56 will drag the asset toward November 15 high at $22.25. A slippage below the latter will expose the asset for more downside toward November 24 high at $21.68. Silver four-hour chart  

Summary:  US equities got off to a choppy start in 2023 with a slightly weak session yesterday, but with notable weakness in high profile companies like Tesla after it reported weak Q4 deliveries, while market cap leader Apple posted a new cycle low. The US dollar traded was choppy in volatile trading but generally ended the day on the strong side, even as US treasury yields dropped. Gold chopped back and forth but surged back toward yesterday’s highs overnight.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures started the year’s first day of trading yesterday with the element that they had plenty of in 2022, namely volatility. The index futures started rallying in the beginning of the session helped by positive sentiment in Europe and China trading up as much as 1.2% at the intraday high, but spillover effect on sentiment from the slide in Tesla shares and related technology stocks took S&P 500 futures down 0.4%. The intraday price range in S&P 500 futures was more than 2%. The first important macro events of the year are the ISM Manufacturing and the JOLTS Job Openings report for December which could move interest rates and inflation expectations and thus US equity futures later in the session. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index rallied for the second straight session in 2023 rising by 1.8%. Hang Seng TECH Index surged 3.4%, led by Alibaba (09988:xhkg)  soared more than 7% following the news that the Chinese authorities approved an increase in registered capital of the consumer finance unit of Ant Group. Shares of Chinese developers and management services providers climbed on anticipation of state support from the state-owned Economic Daily emphasizing the importance of the real estate sector to the economy in its editorial. Longfor (00960:xhkg) and Country Garden Services (06098:xhkg) each jumped around 10%, being the top performers of the Hang Seng Index. Sunny Optical (02382:xhkg), a supplier to Apple (AAPL:xnas), plunged 12% on analyst downgrades and a Nikkei report that “Apple has notified several suppliers to build fewer components for Airpods, the Apple Watch and MacBooks for the first quarter, citing weakening demand”. CSI 300 is unchanged. FX: Yesterday’s USD rally moderates. AUD surges on possible end of Chinese coal ban The US dollar surged yesterday for no readily apparent reason, even as US treasury yields dropped and risk sentiment was strong early in the day. The rest of the day saw very choppy action that suggests currency traders are struggling to find their feet in 2023, although the greenback generally ended the day stronger than where it started ahead of the first important macro data of the year this Friday. Overnight, the Aussie surged sharply, erasing the AUDUSD losses yesterday and seeing AUDNZD to new local highs as Chinese authorities discussed a partial lifting of the Australia coal import ban. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) Crude oil futures, led by gasoline and diesel, turned sharply lower during its first full day of trading with the early 2023 focus being centred around a short-term deterioration in demand as China struggles with Covid-19, milder weather reduces demand for heating fuels and the IMF’s latest warning that one third of the world may suffer recession in 2023. OPEC increased production by 150k b/d last month according to a Bloomberg survey as Nigeria, currently producing below its quota, ramped up production. US production meanwhile is expected to rise by just 600k b/d in 2023, with the pre-pandemic record peak at 13m b/d remaining out of sight. On the supply side Russia’s December shipments of oil slumped to the lowest for 2022 driven by storm disruptions and a shortage of vessels. In Brent, the uptrend from early December looks challenged with a break below $81 signalling further loss of momentum, initially towards $79.65.  Gold (XAUUSD), silver (XAGUSD) and platinum (XPTUSD) This trio of investment and semi-industrial metals, led by gold’s break higher, are the only commodities trading in the black this week. On Tuesday, sudden dollar strength was being offset by a sharp fall in US treasury yields, both highlighting weak risk sentiment at the beginning of a new trading year. In general, we are looking for a price friendly 2023 for investment metals supported by recession and stock market valuation risks, an eventual peak in central bank rates combined with the prospect of a weaker dollar and inflation not returning to the expected sub-3% level by yearend. However, in the short-term continued dollar strength - as risk appetite elsewhere suffers - may prove too hard to ignore, thereby raising the prospect for a correction and better buying levels. Focus on today’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s US job report. Key support in gold at $1801 with trendline resistance at $1852 being followed by $1878. Yields on US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) fall sharply on US first trading day of 2023 US Treasury yields fell sharply all along the curve, but fell the most at the longer end of the curve, with the 10-year yield benchmark down almost 15 basis points to 3.73%. Some of the move was in sympathy with European yields, which dropped on a much softer than expected German CPI print.  The 10-year US Treasury yield level to watch to the upside is perhaps the 4.00% area ahead of the 4.34% high from October, which is a 15-year high. To the downside, the cycle lows below 3.50% (intraday cycle low was 3.40%) are the focus, with the first major test of the US Treasury market up this Friday on the release of US jobs data and the December ISM Services index and next week on the December CPI report on Thursday, January 12. What is going on? US House Republicans so far failing to elect new Speaker of the House A minority of more Trumpist-leaning Republicans are holding back the election of Kevin McCarthy to become the next Speaker, as he failed to win approval after three rounds of voting yesterday. The House is unable to conduct any kind of business until a new Speaker is elected, and the degree of dysfunction in the House over the next two years will likely be determined by the identity of the leader in the house. Inflation is cooling down in Germany Germany December CPI rose 8.7 % year-over-year against prior 10.4 %. The monthly decline is astounding: minus 1.0 % from November to December. In parallel, inflation also slowed down in Germany’s largest state by population – North Rhine Westphalia – with CPI out at minus 1.0 % month-over-month. This matters because it is one of the major industrial states. The drop is partially explained by the drop in energy prices and the one-time government support to reduce the gas bills of households and SMEs. This means the decline in inflation may not last. It will highly depend on the evolution of energy prices this winter. But this is a welcome figure as we kick off the new year. Officials in China discuss easing Australia coal import ban Bloomberg is breaking this story, citing sources familiar with the matter, which claim that bureaucrats are proposing allowing a few major coal consumers in China to resume imports as soon as April 1. The Australian dollar jumped sharply in response, as did Australian coal exporters, and even major miner BHP Billiton posted a strong session overnight. Tesla shares plunge 12% to lowest levels since August 2020 Tesla had a bad start to 2023 as the EV maker reported worse than expected Q4 deliveries Tuesday night trailing the productions figures for the quarter expanding the gap between production and deliveries to a new high. Investors are speculating whether Tesla is facing a demand issue and the recent implemented discounts to entice buyers are still in place suggesting Tesla is willing to sacrifice its operating margin at the expense of keeping up demand to maintain high utilization of its factory capacity. Read our take on Tesla in yesterday’s equity note. What are we watching next? November JOLTS Job openings up later, FOMC Minutes up tonight The JOLTS survey of job openings dropped in October back toward the low for 2022 at just above 10.3M as the November release today is expected to post a new cycle low near 10.0M. Still, these numbers are far north of the previous pre-pandemic record near 7.5M. The FOMC minutes tonight may not move markets much, but are worth watching for where FOMC members are expressing their inflation concerns. Earnings to watch The earnings calendar is light in the first week of the new year, but in a couple of weeks the first Q4 earnings releases will begin to be released. The Q4 earnings season will continue its focus on margin pressures related to input costs on employees and raw materials including energy. This week’s earnings focus is Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) and Conagra Brands, with WBA expected to -3% revenue growth y/y for the quarter that ended on 30 November adding to the series of quarters with negative revenue growth. Conagra Brands is expected to deliver 7% revenue growth y/y for the quarter that ended on 30 November as the manufacturer of packaged foods is able to pass on inflation to its customers. Thursday: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, Constellation Brands, RPM International Friday: Naturgy Energy Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0745 – France December Flash CPI 0815-0900 – Eurozone final December Services PMI 0930 – UK Nov. Consumer Credit/Mortgage Approvals 1500 – US Dec. ISM Manufacturing  1500 – US Nov. JOLTS Jobs openings 1900 – US FOMC Minutes 2130 – API's Weekly Crude and Fuel Inventory Report 0145 – China Dec. Caixin Services PMI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 4, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Silver struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Thursday and remains below the $24.00 mark. The overnight break below two-month-old ascending trend-line support favours bearish traders. Mixed oscillators on hourly/daily charts warrant caution before positioning for a further decline. Silver struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick and remains below the $24.00 round figure heading into the European session on Thursday. The technical set-up, meanwhile, supports prospects for a further pullback from over an eight-month high touched earlier this week. The overnight break below a two-month-old ascending trend-line was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Furthermore, technical indicators on hourly charts have been drifting lower and add credence to the negative outlook. That said, oscillators on the daily chart - though have been losing traction - are yet to confirm a bearish bias. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, currently around the $23.65 region, before positioning for any meaningful downside. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the corrective fall towards testing sub-$23.00 levels. The downward trajectory could further get extended towards intermediate support near the $22.60-$22.55 region, below which spot prices could drop to the next relevant support near the $22.10-$22.00 horizontal zone. The latter should act as a strong base for the white metal, which if broken decisively will set the stage for an extension of the depreciating move. On the flip side, the $24.00 round-figure mark now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $24.25 area. This is followed by the multi-month high, around the $24.50-$24.55 region set on Tuesday. A sustained strength beyond the latter will negate any near-term negative outlook and allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022. Read next:Exxon And Chevron Abandon The Global Market And Focus On The Americas| FXMAG.COM Silver 4-hour chart  

Fed and precious metals The biggest macro hurdle for precious metals in 2022 was the historic tightening by the Federal Reserve, which posted the fastest rate hike since the early 1980s. Overall, rates rose 425 basis points over the year, rising to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Considering the significant headwinds caused by the sharp rate hikes by central banks, particularly the Fed, last year's performance of gold, silver and platinum prices was remarkable. And the last quarter of the year was so favorable for precious metals because the markets began to orient themselves towards the Fed's reversal. Fed At its last meeting in 2022, the Fed slowed growth to 50 basis points but remained steadfast in its fight to bring inflation down, warning markets that there will be more rate hikes into the new year as inflation is not at the right level. "We've raised 425 basis points this year, and we're into restrictive territory. It's now not so important how fast we go. It's far more important to think about what is the ultimate level. And... how long do we remain restrictive? That will become the most important question," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters after the December FOMC meeting. Powell Regarding the possibility of a soft landing, Powell also noted that the longer the Fed needs to keep rates high, the narrower the runway gets. "I don't think anyone knows whether we're going to have a recession or not. And if we do, whether it's going to be a deep one or not, it's just not knowable," he said. GDP The latest median forecast for next year shows that rates could rise to 5.1%, with the Fed also expecting real GDP to be 0.5% in 2023 and PCE inflation to slow to 3.1%. Markets have already priced in additional rate hikes for February and March. But many analysts predict a pause after that, followed by a potential rate cut towards the end of the year.     Long-term review Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331523

On the 4-hour chart, the Silver commodity asset can be seen at the level of the Bullish Fair value Gap area in the range of 23,185-23,465 which functions as a pretty good Support area level so that at this time Silver is appreciating again, rallying up and up to test the 24,485 level, but if on its way to that level suddenly suddenly Silver has depreciated again until it breaks below the 23,025 level. This will be a sign that there will be a change in the direction of the bias movement in Silver so that what has been described previously will cancel itself. Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-10 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/117181

Friday's strong price movement in the markets was after the publication of the employment report for December. The report shows that the labor market ended 2022 on a positive note, with 223,000 new jobs added in December. This was well above estimates that suggested an additional 200,000 jobs were added last month. In addition, Friday's report from the Institute for Supply Management showed that non-manufacturing PMI fell from 56.5 in November to 49.6 last month. It was the first contraction within a month in more than 2.5 years. Together, these two reports will influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy as their data reduces the chance of a recession. The report caused a strong rally across the board in U.S. stock markets. The Dow added 2.13%: NASDAQ composite index with 2.56%: and S&P 500 with 2.28%: The entire precious metals complex closed sharply higher, with palladium up 4.06%: Platinum added 3.29%: Gold up 1.66%: Silver up 2.35%: The vast majority (over 60%) of gold price growth was directly related to the weak dollar. The US dollar index lost 1.11% in price:   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-12 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331736

With precious metals gaining momentum at the end of the year, Main Street investors raised their forecast of gold and silver for the new year. Data has shown that gold ended the year unchanged, while silver is up almost 3%. Spot gold started at around $1,828 an ounce last year and ended just above $1,822 an ounce, while spot silver opened at $23.28 an ounce and ended at $23.93 an ounce. In a survey conducted quite recently, 37.5% chose gold as the best performing asset for 2023, while 36.8% chose silver. The third most favored asset was copper, with 8% of votes, followed by oil and Bitcoin, which has 4.7% votes each. Platinum and lithium have 3.7% votes. Palladium was the least popular choice, garnering just 0.9% of the vote. Wall Street investors are also optimistic about gold and silver as it is well positioned for growth since the US is entering economic recession. DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said he believes the Fed will move another 50 basis points in February, pushing the rate to peak at 5% in 2023. But once the Fed reaches 5%, rates will certainly be cut, Gundlach warned. Read next: After The Correction, Jacek Ma's Share In Shareholder Votes Will Fall To 6.2%| FXMAG.COM ANZ strategist Daniel Hynes also believes market sentiment is shifting in favor of gold. "With the Fed pause likely to be followed by a reversal, gold has already started to appreciate," added Wells Fargo head of real asset strategy John Laforge. The company sees gold hitting $1,900 to $2,000 in 2023. Many analysts are even more optimistic about silver in the new year. Laforge, for instance, said that with the price returning to $23, there is a chance that a further rise will be seen in the market. Everett Millman, a precious metals expert at Gainesville Coins, explains that silver has great potential at current price levels because investors have neglected it. "It is more likely that silver will outperform gold. Its recent behavior is encouraging, and the available supply of investment products is quite limited," he said. Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331738

A decline in the US Dollar Index has shifted traction in favor of Silver price. Investors’ risk appetite has improved amid a rebound in S&P500 futures. The 200-period EMA is overlapping with the white metal prices, which indicates a lackluster performance ahead. Silver price (XAG/USD) has rebounded firmly after dropping to near $23.50 in the Asian session. The white metal has extended its recovery above the immediate resistance of $23.60 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) is facing heat amid failing to recapture the critical hurdle of 103.00. It seems that the risk appetite of the market participants is improving again as S&P500 futures have trimmed the majority of their morning losses. Also, the 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped to 3.53%. On an hourly scale, the Silver price has sensed buying interest after correcting to near the horizontal support plotted from December 29 low at $23.46. Broadly, the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $23.75 is overlapping with the white metal prices, which is indicating a lackluster performance ahead. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is aiming to shift into the 40.00-60.00 range from the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates an attempt for a bullish reversal. For an upside move, the Silver price needs to break above Monday’s high at $24.10, which will drive the asset towards January 3 high at $24.55 followed by the psychological resistance at $25.00. On the contrary, a declining move below January 5 low at $23.12 will drag the Silver price toward December 19 low and December 16 low at $22.84 and $22.56 respectively. Silver hourly chart  

Summary:  Today we discuss the bounce-back in US equity markets as we are all supposedly holding our breath for a CPI release tomorrow when the last soft CPI release in December drove zany intraday volatility and a rally that was quickly erased - etching out a market top at the time. Elsewhere, we discuss the conflicting signals from expanding US credit while another sentiment survey disappoints, look at strong metals markets as a clear expression of hopes for a China-driven recovery, Apple's deepening vertical integration moves as it looks to ditch Samsung screens, and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Read next:The EUR/USD Pair Is Still Above 1.0700$, The USD/JPY Pair Was Little Changed| FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Metals are sending loud signals as US equities in limbo | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Gold rising beyond $1,850 at the start of the new year will create new momentum for the metal and attract new investors. Greg Harmon, founder and president of Dragonfly Capital Management, said he is optimistic about the long-term potential of gold as the uncertainty in financial markets will continue to support the attractiveness of the metal as a safe haven asset. There is also a shift in markets as bond yields continue to trade near their highest level in 12 years, holding support above 3.50%. As for how much gold an investor should have in their portfolio, Harmon said between 1% and 2% might be appropriate. He added that he does not see the metal as a hedge against inflation because its price is mainly determined by investor demand. Read next: Pietro Beccari Will Be The Louis Vuitton’s CEO, Departures Several Top Executives At Rivian| FXMAG.COM Alongside gold, Harmon said he also sees some potential in silver since its prices have risen significantly from October's two-year lows. And even though there is a strong resistance around $24 and $26, a rise above $30 will take the metal to historical highs. "Silver has a lot of momentum and we haven't seen it stop like gold," Harmon said. "If it goes up to $30, there's nothing to stop it from going higher."   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331966

Silver attracts fresh buying in the vicinity of support marked by the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart. The recent two-way price moves warrant some caution before placing aggressive directional bets. Bulls might wait for a sustained move beyond the $24.00 mark before positioning for further gains. Silver regains some positive traction on Thursday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak to the weekly low touched the previous day. The white metal maintains its bid tone through the early European session and is currently placed near the daily high, around the $23.60-$23.65 region. From a technical perspective, the overnight pullback from the vicinity of the weekly high stalls near the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The said support, currently around the $23.20 region, should now act as a pivotal point and help determine the next leg of a directional move. Given that the XAG/USD has been struggling to find acceptance above the $24.00 mark, a convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. That said, oscillators on the daily chart - though have been losing traction - are still holding in the positive territory. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $23.00 round figure before positioning for a further near-term depreciating move. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the fall towards the $22.60-$22.55 region before eventually dropping to the next relevant support near the $22.10-$22.00 horizontal zone. On the flip side, any further positive move might confront a stiff hurdle near the weekly top, around the $24.00-$24.10 region. A sustained strength beyond could lift the XAG/USD towards the multi-month high, around the $24.50-$24.55 region touched last week. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a move towards reclaiming the $25.00 psychological mark. Read next:Discussion Of Bank Representatives On Financing The Ecological Transformation | FXMAG.COM Silver 4-hour chart  

Silver is seen consolidating in a narrow trading band below the $24.00 mark on Friday. The recent two-way price moves warrant some caution before placing directional bets. A convincing break below the 200-SMA on H4 should pave the way for deeper losses. Silver struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Friday and oscillates in a narrow trading band through the early European session. The white metal is currently placed around the $23.75 area, nearly unchanged for the day, and remains well within a broader trading range held over the past three weeks or so. From a technical perspective, this week's repeated failures to find acceptance above the $24.00 round figure warrants some caution for bullish traders. The XAG/USD, however, has managed to hold its neck above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The latter is currently pegged near the $23.20 region and coincides with the lower end of the trading range, which, in turn, should now act as a pivotal point for short-term traders. A convincing break below will mark a bearish breakdown, though it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $23.00 mark before positioning for a further depreciating move. The XAG/USD might then extend the recent pullback from a multi-month top and accelerate the fall towards the $22.60-$22.55 region. The downfall could eventually drag spot prices to the next relevant support near the $22.10-$22.00 zone. On the flip side, any intraday positive move beyond the $24.00 mark might confront some resistance near the overnight swing high, around the $24.20 region. This is followed by the multi-month high, around the $24.50-$24.55 region touched last week, which if cleared decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. The XAG/USD could then aim towards reclaiming the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022. Read next: The New Disney Drama: Disney Is Opposing Activist-Investor Nelson Peltz| FXMAG.COM Silver 4-hour chart  

Silver edges higher for the third straight day and inches back closer to the multi-month top. The set-up favours bulls and supports prospects for an extension of the appreciating move. A convincing break below the $23.00 mark is needed to negate the near-term positive bias. Silver prolongs the positive trend for the third straight day on Monday and steadily climbs back closer to its highest level since April 22 touched earlier this month. The white metal sticks to its intraday gains heading into the European session, with bulls now awaiting a move beyond the $24.50-$24.55 area before placing fresh bets. From a technical perspective, last week's bounce from the vicinity of the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and a sustained strength above the $24.00 mark was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the positive territory and are still far from being in the overbought zone. This, in turn, supports prospects for an extension of the appreciating move. That said, RSI (14) on hourly charts hovers around the 70 mark (representing overbought conditions) and warrants some caution. Nevertheless, the stage still seems set for an eventual breakout through the $24.50-$24.55 region and a subsequent move towards reclaiming the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the XAG/USD to the $25.35-$25.40 hurdle. Read next: The UK Economy Expects A Slightly Fall In Inflation, Expected To Fall By 0.1%| FXMAG.COM On the flip side, the $24.10-$24.00 resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any further pullback is more likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited near the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart, currently around the $23.30-$23.25 area. This is followed by the $23.00 round figure, which if broken decisively will negate the positive outlook and shift the near-term bias in favour of bearish traders. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the fall towards the $22.60-$22.55 region and weaken further towards the next relevant support near the $22.10-$22.00 zone. Silver 4-hour chart  

Summary:  Today, we look at an interesting week ahead as US equities continue to trade up against a pivotal resistance area (just above the 200-day moving average and just below the 4,000 level for the US SP& 500 index) as earnings season set for a big blast next week. Today US markets are closed. The event risk of the week, meanwhile, is the hotly anticipated Bank of Japan meeting on Wednesday, with markets unsure on whether Governor Kuroda and company are set to deliver further policy tweaks. Futures positioning in commodities, especially metals and the latest on natural gas in Europe and more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Read next: The Swedish Real Estate Market Will See Significant Price Drops| FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Market bracing for BoJ impact Wednesday | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Market participants continue to react to the bullish market sentiment created by the CPI report, which was released on Thursday last week. Inflation was 6.5% year-over-year, marking the sixth consecutive month that inflation has declined from a peak of 9.1% in June. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, after a 0.1% increase in November, consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) fell by 0.1% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis. And the all items index, before seasonal adjustment, increased by 6.5% for the year. Core CPI inflation (excluding food and energy costs) rose 5.7% YoY, up 0.3% from the previous month. Although inflationary pressures have eased, the core consumer price index is still about three times the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. At the same time, optimism forced investors to actively buy U.S. stocks, gold, and silver. However, they did not base market sentiment on recent Fed statements. The caveat is that the Federal Reserve has repeatedly reaffirmed its unwavering determination to keep interest rates high throughout 2023. Many analysts believe that the Fed is bluffing because current rates are not sustainable throughout the year. Others feel that their vows to be transparent simply no longer exists. U.S. equities, gold, and silver have benefited from this sentiment, leading to a strong rally in gold and silver, as well as moderate gains in major stock indices. Dow added 0.33%: S&P 500 added 0.40%: and the NASDAQ Composite Index added 0.70%: Gold up $24.20: Silver up $0.41: If the Fed continues on its course of tightening, it could lead to one of the biggest Fed blunders in recent history. The Fed's days of data dependency only seem to matter when the data supports their assumptions   Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-19 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332378

Silver ticks down on Tuesday, though lacks any follow-through selling. The setup still favours bulls and supports prospects for additional gains. A break below the $23.40-35 confluence might negate the positive bias. Silver edges lower during the first half of trading on Tuesday, though lacks follow-through and remains well within the previous day's broader trading range. The white metal manages to hold its neck above the $24.00 mark and seems poised to appreciate further. The recent price action witnessed over the past month or so constitutes the formation of an ascending channel. The lower end of the said trend channel, currently around the $23.40-$23.35 area, coincides with the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and should act as a pivotal point for the XAG/USD. Oscillators on 4-hour/daily charts - though have been losing traction - are holding in the positive territory and favour bullish traders. That said, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the multi-month peak, around the $24.50 area, before positioning for further gains. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the XAG/USD towards the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for an extension of the appreciating move towards the next relevant hurdle near the $25.35-$25.40 resistance zone. On the flip side, any meaningful slide below the $24.00 mark is more likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited near the aforementioned confluence support, around the $23.40-$23.35 area. A convincing break below will negate the positive outlook and shift the bias in favour of bearish traders. The XAG/USD might then turn vulnerable to weaken below the $23.00 round-figure mark and accelerate the fall towards the $22.60-$22.55 region. The downward trajectory could get extended further towards the next relevant support near the $22.10-$22.00 zone. Silver 4-hour chart  

If we look at the 24,075-24,232 area level on the daily chart of commodity assets, Silver seems to function as a quite strong and significant resistance area because it is difficult for Silver to penetrate upwards where failure to penetrate above that level area creates Hagopian Rules conditions for this commodity asset that is in the channel. Bullish Pitchfork so that in the next few days Silver has the potential to fall corrected down to the level of the 22,010 - 21,400 area unless on the way down it suddenly Silver starts to rally again up significantly to break above the 24,485 level then the downside correction scenario described just now will become null and cancel by itself.   Relevance up to 02:00 2023-01-22 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/117913

Silver extends its descent for the third successive day and drops to over a one-week low. The technical setup now favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further fall. A convincing break below the trend-channel support will reaffirm the negative outlook. Silver extends this week's retracement slide from the $24.50 horizontal resistance and edges lower for the third straight day on Thursday. The white metal remains on the defensive heading into the European session and is currently placed just below the mid-$23.00s, or the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. Bearish traders now await some follow-through selling below support marked by the lower boundary of over a one-month-old ascending channel before placing fresh bets. Technical indicators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and support prospects for an eventual breakdown. That said, RSI (14) on hourly charts is on the verge of breaking into the oversold zone and warrants some caution. A convincing break, however, might turn the XAG/USD vulnerable to weaken further below the $23.00 mark and accelerate the fall to the $22.60-$22.55 region. The downward trajectory could get extended further and drag spot prices to the next relevant support near the $22.10-$22.00 zone. The latter represents a static resistance breakpoint and might help limit losses, which if broken will be seen as a fresh trigger for bears. On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt now seems to confront an immediate hurdle ahead of the $24.00 round-figure mark. This is followed by resistance near the $24.30 region and the multi-month peak, around the $24.50 area. A sustained strength beyond has the potential to lift the XAG/USD towards challenging the trend channel barrier, currently around the $24.80-$24.85 zone, en route to the $25.00 psychological mark. Silver 4-hour chart  

The latest PPI data showed that the producer price inflation in the US fell way faster than expected, while retail sales fell 1.1% in December – marking the biggest monthly drop of last year. S&P500 The S&P500 didn’t like the mix of slowing economic data, and hawkish comments from Fed officials, and dived more than 1.50% yesterday. But the dovish expectations – despite the hawkish comments from the Fed, feed well into the bond markets: the US 2-year yield is diving toward the 4% mark, while the 10-year yield hit 3.30%, the lowest level since September. This means that the positive divergence in the sovereign space, compared with the stocks, is happening. Netflix and P&G And the divergence could be even more visible if the stocks fall further on soft earnings. Netflix and P&G will announce their Q4 results today. Read next: Un Secretary General Antonio Guterres Encouraged The Transition To Green Energy At The World Economic Forum In Davos, The Chinese Economy May Surprise You Positively| FXMAG.COM Energy In energy, US crude advanced past the $82 mark on Chinese reopening optimism and IEA predicting that the oil demand will hit a record in 2023, before falling back below the $80 on recession pessimism. Precious metals In precious metals, gold is bid above the $1900 level, supported by lower US yields and the softer US dollar. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:42 Soft economic data from the US revives the Fed doves 2:09 But the Fed doves aren’t enough for cheering up the stock bulls 3:36 Netflix & P&G to reveal Q4 earnings today 6:00 USD is unloved 8:20 Crude oil swings up and down 9:05 Gold looks appetizing on softer yields & weaker dollar Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #PPI #retailsales #data #Netflix #P&G #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #JPY #crude #oil #gold #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Silver edges higher on Friday, albeit lacks follow-through beyond the $24.00 mark. The technical setup favours bullish traders and supports prospects for further gains. A convincing break below the trend-channel support will negate the positive outlook. Silver builds on the previous day's goodish rebound from the $23.15 area, or a two-week low and edges higher during the Asian session on Friday. The white metal, however, struggles to find acceptance or extend the momentum beyond the $24.00 mark and has now trimmed a part of its modest intraday gains. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD on Thursday managed to defend support marked by the lower end of over a one-one-month-old ascending channel. The subsequent move-up suggests that this week's pullback from the $24.50 resistance zone has run its course. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart just manage to hold in the bullish territory and have again started gaining positive traction on hourly charts. The aforementioned technical setup supports prospects for a further appreciating move, though the lack of follow-through buying warrants some caution for aggressive bullish traders. Nevertheless, the XAG/USD still seems poised to retest the multi-month peak, around the $24.50 area, before eventually aiming to challenge the trend-channel resistance. The latter is currently pegged just ahead of the $25.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, around the $23.55 region, seems to protect the immediate downside. This is closely followed by the trend-channel support, near the $23.40-$23.35 zone and the overnight swing low, around the $23.15 area. A convincing break below the said support levels will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to weaken below the $23.00 mark. The next relevant support is pegged near the $22.60-$22.55 region before the XAG/USD eventually drops to the $22.10-$22.00 zone. The latter represents a static resistance breakpoint and might help limit any further losses, at least for the time being. Silver 4-hour chart  

Summary:  A technical look at some of the Commodity ETF's both US and London listed that could benefit from a bull market developing in the Base and Precious metals market Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team  The Bloomberg Commodities Index which tracks futures prices on physical commodities such as Energy, Soft Commodities and Base Metals and Precious metals has been in a corrective phase for the best part of a year now after a strong uptrend starting in 2020.Illustrated here by the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracker Fund DBC (further below its London listed Commodity ETF) it has formed a Descending triangle like corrective pattern. It is not yet confirmed and could also be a falling Wedge like pattern ( a falling wedge the price must touch the trendlines a total of 5 times)Break out will confirm which one it is.If breaking below 23.42 it is likely to be a falling wedge.Currently the DBC is trying to break above its upper falling trendline and if closing above the correction could be over and DBC set to resume uptrend.Medium-to longer-term uptrend will be confirmed by a close above 26.70.The corrective pattern currently being formed seems to be the 4th corrective wave ABC. If the correction is over and bull trend resumes we can estimate how high the DBC can potentially move.5th wave often moves 1.618 projection of wave 4 i.e., to around 35.10 or 0.618 of wave 1+3 i.e., to around 35.92. If moving 0.618 of Wave 3 alone target is at 34.64. However, 5 wave in commodities can become the longest one i.e., longer than wave 3. If that is the case here then DBC can move to 43.65. But let’s if we get above the above mentioned potential targets.Monthly RSI is bullish with no divergence which indicates likely new highs i.e., supporting the bullish outlook.If DBC closes below 23.42 the correction could be extended down to around 22-21.85 (dashed line on weekly chart) thereby potentially forming a falling wedge.Weekly RSI is still positive (hasn’t closed below 40) with no divergence support the bullish trend to resume   Source all charts and data: Saxo Group European listed Commodity ETF If you cannot trade the US based ETF it is also listed in London:  Invesco Bloomberg UCITS EFT (CMOD:xlon) traded in USD. Strong support at 23 . A close above the falling trendline is like to resume uptrend. An uptrend that will be confirmed by a close above 25.41. CMOD has the same technical picture and will have same upside potential as the DBC i.e., approx. +40%.  A pureplay Metals ETF is Invesco DB Base Metals DBB:arcx  (US Listed) or WisdomTree Industrial Metals AIGI:xlon (London listed)They are both in an uptrend on medium-term. AIGI:xlon if closing above 17.20 today Friday would be in a confirmed uptrend supported by RSI above 60. A double bottom pattern ahs been confirmed with potential target to around 18.76. However, there could be more upside potential. 0.618 retracement of the Q2 collapse at around 22.85 is not unlikely.To demolish this picture a close below 15.65 is needed.  DBB:arcx has also formed a double bottom pattern and in a confirmed uptrend with RSI above 60 threshold. 200% of the double bottom pattern is at 23.90 and 0.618 retracement of the downtrend since Q2 2022 at 23.37.However, there could be more upside. DBB has corrected 0.618 of the 2020-2022 bull market (Monthly chart) and seems set for higher levels. RSI showing positive sentiment with no divergence which indicates likely new highs. Possibly reaching 1.382 projection of the correction to around 30.35.For DBB to demolish this bullish scenario a close below 17.48 is needed. RSI divergence: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend Source: Technical Update - Commodities lead by metals are drawing the picture of a bull market. Commodity ETF's to trade | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Silver price renews intraday high to reverse the previous day’s slump to five-week low. 200-SMA, bearish chart formation keeps XAG/USD bears hopeful. Monthly high acts as the last defense of Silver bears. Silver price (XAG/USD) picks up bids to refresh intraday high near $23.55 as it bounces off the five-week low marked the previous day. In doing so, the bright metal recovers from the support line of a one-week-long descending trend channel. As the XAG/USD recovery takes clues from the RSI (14) rebound from the overbought territory, the latest run-up is likely to poke the immediate hurdle, namely the 200-SMA level surrounding $23.65. However, the quote’s further upside will need validation from the top line of the stated channel, close to $24.10 at the latest. Even so, the monthly high near $24.55, also the highest level since late April 2022, could challenge the Silver buyers, a break of which won’t hesitate to direct the commodity price towards the April 2022 high near $26.25. On the contrary, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the XAG/USD’s upside from December 16 to January 03, around $23.30, restricts immediate declines of the metal. Following that, the aforementioned bearish chart formation’s support line, near $23.00 by the press time, will be crucial to watch for a corrective bounce. In a case where the Silver price fails to rebound from $23.00, a slump toward the mid-2022 peak surrounding $22.50 can’t be ruled out. Silver price: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited recovery expected

For the seventh consecutive week, hedge funds have continued to invest in gold, according to the latest trading data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. According to some analysts, the gold market continues to benefit from the change in expectations regarding interest rates in the U.S., which weakens the U.S. dollar. Everyone is currently waiting for the Federal Reserve to further slow down the pace of its rate hike by 25 basis points next month. The expected end of the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening cycle has sent the U.S. dollar index down to a seven-month low. At the same time, gold prices are trading near a nine-month high, with prices holding initial support above $1,900 an ounce. According to the CFTC's disaggregated Commitments of Traders report, money managers at Comex increased their speculative long positions on gold futures by 7,618 contracts to 124,222. At the same time, short positions rose by 50 contracts to 54,845. However, while the market is still healthy bullish, some analysts see signs that the precious metal is entering a consolidation phase. At the same time, the U.S. dollar is oversold. And further sluggish investment demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds may suggest that the rally is running out of steam. Commodity analysts at TD Securities also warn of a potential spike in gold prices as the Chinese market is closed this week for Lunar New Year celebrations. While the gold market continues to attract speculative investor interest, the silver market is struggling to keep up. Comex speculative long positions in silver futures rose 1,215 contracts to 46,115 contracts, while short positions fell by 2,019 contracts to 19,647 contracts, according to the disaggregated report. Silver now has a net length of 26,468 contracts. The bullish position is holding near an eight-month high. Growing fears that the U.S. is heading for a recession are putting pressure on the precious metal, some analysts say; however, silver also lags behind other industrial metals such as copper. The COT report showed that Comex speculative long positions in copper futures rose 9,388 contracts to 72,421. At the same time, short positions rose 2,845 contracts to 39,467. Copper's net length is now at 32,954 contracts, the highest level since early April. During the survey period, a solid bullish speculative stance drove prices to a seven-month high above $4.20 a pound. Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-27 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333091

Summary:  Today we discuss the US equity market melting up technically at an awkward moment, as leading indicators suggest we are barreling into a recession. In any case, a big test ahead as earnings season kicks off in earnest with today's batch of companies reporting, including beaten down mega-cap Microsoft after hours. In commodities, a check-in with crude oil, silver's ugly dip relative to still-strong gold, and one of the most shorted commodities, coffee. Stocks to watch today, the macro calendar picking up and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it. Read next: South African Petrochemical Company Sasol Is Moving Away From Fossil Fuels, Germany Again Refused To Send Tanks To Ukraine| FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Uncomfortable squeeze as earnings season rush kicks off | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Silver traders take offers to refresh intraday low while paring previous daily losses. DXY steadies during three-week downtrend as traders brace for US Q4 GDP. Inactive yields, light calendar adds to the market’s indecision ahead of key catalysts. Silver price (XAG/USD) remains depressed around intraday low of $23.50 as traders seek fresh clues to extend the fortnight-long downtrend during early Wednesday in Europe. In doing so, the bright metal takes clues from a pause in the US Dollar’s downtrend while reversing the previous day’s gains. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) steadies around 102.00 as bears await the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) and the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. It’s worth noting that the downbeat US activity data join the dovish concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next moves to keep XAG/USD buyers hopeful. However, an absence of Chinese traders and the pre-Fed blackout period joins the consolidation in the commodity markets, due to China’s Lunar New Year holidays, which seem to weigh on the Silver price of late. Additionally, the market’s dicey moves and a lack of major data/events also probe the commodity traders. While portraying the mood, US Treasury bond yields remain inactive after Tuesday’s pullback while the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses but the stocks in the Asia-Pacific region trade mixed and support the currencies of the zone. Moving on, Silver traders will pay close attention to the risk catalyst ahead of the US Q4 GDP as recession woes challenge the partially industrial commodity. However, major attention will be given to the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for clear directions. To sum up, the Silver price remains on the bear’s radar for the day but the bulls are lurking ahead of the key data/events. Read next: The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.70$, GBP/USD Pair Lost Its Level Of 1.24$| FXMAG.COM Silver price technical analysis A sustained downside break of the seven-week-old ascending trend line, now immediate resistance near $23.70, keeps Silver bears hopeful of retesting the monthly low near $22.75

On the 4-hour chart of the Silver commodity asset, it appears that a hidden deviation has emerged between the price movement of Silver which is in a bearish channel and the Awesome Oscillator indicator which confirms that in the near future Silver has the potential to fall down to the 23,598-area level. 23,413 as the main target and level 23,165 as the next target to be tested but if on the way to the targets of these levels suddenly Silver is corrected upwards significantly breaking above level 24,105 then all the setups previously described will become invalid and automatically cancel by itself.   Relevance up to 04:00 2023-01-27 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/118241

Silver takes offers to renew intraday low as US Dollar licks its wound ahead of the key data. Sluggish markets, China-inspired optimism put a floor under XAG/USD prices. Firmer prints of US Q4 GDP could renew hawkish Fed bets and extend latest pullback. Silver price (XAG/USD) renews intraday low near $23.75 as it adds to the weekly gains ahead of Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the bright metal drops for the first time in three days as traders stay cautious ahead of the key US data comprising the first readings of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It should be noted that the latest Reuters poll challenging the market optimism toward growth conditions seems to weigh on the XAG/USD price. “Global economic growth is forecast to barely clear 2% this year, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the greater risk was a further downgrade to their view, at odds with widespread optimism in markets since the start of the year. Additionally, the downbeat performance of US equities in the last few days and anxiety ahead of the top-tier data, as well as hopes of more rate hikes, also challenge the sentiment and please the Silver buyers. Alternatively, the softer US Treasury yields and downbeat expectations from the scheduled US data keep the US Dollar on bear’s radar, which in turn put a floor under the Silver prices. It’s worth mentioning that the receding market bets on the Fed’s hawkish move and chatters surrounding the policy pivot also seem to favor the XAG/USD buyers. On the same line could be optimism in Hong Kong as the nation’s equity benchmark Hang Seng leads the Asia-Pacific gainers with above 2.0% gains by the press time even if markets in Australia, India and China are closed. The reason for the upbeat sentiment could be linked to the market chatters suggesting strong holiday spending in China, the world’s biggest commodity user. Looking forward, the US Q4 GDP is expected to ease and personal spending might also recede during the Q4, which in turn allows the Fed policymakers to go soft on their rate hike trajectory. The same could direct market players away from the US Dollar and may underpin the XAG/USD upside. Technical analysis Silver price takes a U-turn from the downward-sloping resistance line from January 16, close to $24.00 by the press time, as it drops back towards the 50-DMA support of $23.15.    

Silver meets with a fresh supply on Tuesday and seems vulnerable to sliding further. Last week’s breakdown below the $23.80-$23.75 confluence favours bearish traders. A sustained move back above the $24.00 mark is needed to negate the negative bias. Silver comes under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday and slides back to the $23.30-$23.20 support zone during the early part of the European session. The technical setup, meanwhile, favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move. The XAG/USD last week confirmed a breakdown below the $23.70-$23.80 confluence support, comprising the 200-hour SMA and the lower end of a short-term ascending channel. The overnight failure near the said support breakpoint, now turned resistance, adds credence to the negative outlook. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction. Some follow-through selling below the $23.30-$23.20 area will reaffirm the bearish outlook and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to weaken further below the $23.00 mark. The next relevant support is pegged near the $22.75 area, below which the downward trajectory could get extended and drag the white metal towards the $22.20-$22.15 intermediate support en route to the $22.00 level. Read next: Toyota's Transition To Electric Will Come With A Change In CEO| FXMAG.COM Meanwhile, Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 1-hour chart has moved on the verge of breaking into oversold territory. This makes it prudent to wait for some intraday consolidation or a modest rebound before positioning for additional losses. That said, any attempted recovery might now confront stiff resistance near the $23.60-$23.70 region, or the 100-hour SMA. Any subsequent move up could attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the ascending trend-channel support breakpoint, currently around the $24.00 mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if cleared decisively is likely to trigger a short-covering rally. The XAG/USD might then aim to retest the multi-month to, around the $24.50-$24.55 area touched in January. Silver 1-hour chart  

Silver stalls the overnight recovery move near the $23.70-80 support breakpoint. The technical setup warrants some caution before placing fresh directional bets. A break below the $23.00 mark is needed to support prospects for deeper losses. Silver struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from sub-$23.00 levels, or over a one-week low and oscillates in a narrow band through the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal is currently placed just above the mid-$23.00s, consolidating around the 200-hour SMA. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD remains capped near the $23.70-$23.80 support breakpoint, marking the lower end of a short-term ascending trend channel. The said area might act as a pivotal point for traders, which if cleared decisively should pave the way for some meaningful upside. The XAG/USD might then aim to surpass the $24.00 round figure and retest the multi-month top, around the $24.50-$24.55 zone touched in January. The positive momentum could get extended further and allow bullish traders to reclaim the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022. That said, neutral technical indicators on daily/4-hour charts warrant some caution before positioning for a further near-term appreciating move. Moreover, the recent rangebound price action witnessed since December 21 points to indecision among traders over the next leg of a directional move for the XAG/USD. Read next: AUD/USD Pair Remains Under Strong Selling Pressure, The EUR/USD Pair Has Been Falling But Remains Above 1.08$| FXMAG.COM In the meantime, the $23.30 area might now protect the immediate downside ahead of the overnight low, around the $23.00-$22.95 region. This is closely followed by support near the $22.75 region, which if broken decisively will make the XAG/USD vulnerable to fall towards the $22.20-$22.15 support. Silver 1-hour chart  

Gold and silver as financial security assets: which offers better security? A weakening dollar means that gold may potentially outperform other major assets in the near term, but silver offers an even better currency hedge in relative terms. The two metals are traded on the same venues, provide the same broad sweep of derivative products, and are exposed to the same financial drivers. Their correlation is about 0.8 over any time frame someone would like to test. However, someone might need to allocate more of their portfolio to gold to gain the same amount of exposure. With a beta of 1.6, silver tends to echo and amplify the swings in gold, meaning about a third less cash is needed to gain the same exposure. For industrial metals, the future looks bright given China abandoning the „zero Covid” policy suite that has pressured the economy for so long and their support for the housing market. However, 2023 may also be gloomy when you consider the anticipated global recession. Assuming the recession would be moderate, industrial metals may be a good place for some exposure in 2023. More precisely, copper is traded at around 8,536 USD per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, up about a fifth from the lows of July this year, according to FactSet. Aluminium prices on the LME are also up about a fifth from their late September lows. Citi says that copper supply now possibly exceeds demand and that aluminium shifted into surplus during the third quarter. The bank expects further economic weakness, as well as seasonal weakness, to limit the further increases in metal pricesand states that metals such as copper are pricing in a major near-term recovery in demand growth, which might not happen. Read next: USD/JPY Pair Is Trading At 128.48 The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.71$| FXMAG.COM In 2022, we saw a divergence between the price of an ounce of silver in futures form and an ounce of silver in American Eagle coin form that had not been seen for at least a decade. One and the other market priced the same ounce of silver, with the coins usually only slightly higher in value than the futures. By contrast, the divergence now appears to be huge, reaching tens of percent. At the beginning of December 2022, a popular silver coin cost around 36 USD. The futures contract for an ounce of silver cost 22-23 USD, creating a divergence of nearly 50-60%. This divergence should ease as the prices of both assets begin to reverse their historical relationship. Good to watch commodities XBRUSD/XTIUSD Price of the crude oil may manifest an upward trend due to the demand from China and possible further production cuts by the OPEC cartel. XAGUSD The emerging divergence between physical coin prices and futures prices due to shortages of this commodity in circulation does not seem possible to last forever. Therefore, there may be an upside in the futures market for silver. XAUUSD The gold price may be expected to be in a positive territory in the near term due to the weakening of the US Dollar and investors’ preference of less risky assets. XPTUSD As with the oil market, the situation in China could have a major impact on its valuation in 2023. However, assuming the abolition of the „zero Covid” policy by the Chinese government and the support of the property market, we could expect a rise in this commodity. Read the full Yearly Outlook 2023 by Conotoxia here!

Silver edges higher on Friday, albeit the intraday uptick lacks follow-through. The overnight failure near the $24.50 supply zone warrants caution for bulls .Sustained break below the $23.00 mark is needed to confirm negative bias. Silver attracts some buyers near the 50-day SMA on Friday and stalls the previous day's retracement slide from its highest level since April 2022. The white metal sticks to a mildly positive tone through the early European session, though the intraday uptick lacks bullish conviction. Looking at the broader picture, the XAG/USD has been oscillating in a familiar band over the past one-and-half month or so, forming a rectangle pattern on the daily chart. This points to indecision among traders and warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets. The overnight failure to find acceptance above the $24.50 supply zone validates the trading range resistance, which should now act as a pivotal point. Given that technical indicators on the daily chart have just started drifting in the negative territory, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the said barrier before placing bullish bets. The XAG/USD might then aim to reclaim the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022. The momentum could get extended towards the next relevant hurdle near the $25.35 region en route to the $26.00 round figure. On the flip side, any further slide below the $23.40-$23.30 horizontal zone might continue to find decent support near the $23.00-$22.95 region. This is followed by support near the $22.75 area, which if broken decisively could drag the XAG/USD to the next relevant support near the $22.20-$22.15 zone ahead of the $22.00 mark. Silver daily chart  

Summary:  Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics. Cautious and defensive trading – with a few exceptions – best describes the early 2023 price action across the commodity sector, a year that hopefully will provide less drama and volatility than last year, when the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return index surged higher to record a first quarter gain of 38 percent before spending the rest of the year drifting lower before closing with a 16 percent gain. This was a very respectable return considering the stronger dollar and market participants spending the second half increasingly worrying about a recession.  This focus helped drive financial deleveraging across the commodity sector and physical destocking to the point that some markets have ended up being ill prepared for a strong recovery in China and even less so should the most widely anticipated recession in history turn out to be a shallow one. Tight market conditions across most commodities in 2022 saw forward curves swing into backwardation, a structure that rewards long positions through the positive carry from rolling (selling) an expiring contract at a higher price than where the next is bought. Backwardation helped drive the mentioned 16 percent return on a passive long investment in the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return index, almost 9 percent above the return signalled through changes in spot prices.  Source: Bloomberg and Saxo The key macroeconomic event that will drive developments in 2023 has, in our opinion, already occurred. The abrupt change in direction from the Chinese government away from its failed zero-Covid tolerance towards reopening and kick-starting its economy will have a major impact on commodity demand at a time where supply of several key commodities from energy to metals and agriculture remains tight. In addition, risk sentiment will likely also be supported by a continued and broad drop in the dollar as US inflation continues to ease, thereby supporting a further downshift in the Fed’s rate hike trajectory. Furthermore, an increased likelihood of an incoming recession either not materialising or becoming weaker than anticipated may also trigger a response from financial and physical traders as positions and stock levels are being rebuilt in anticipation of stronger demand. In such a scenario, the structural underinvestment thesis, mostly impacting energy and mining, will likely attract fresh attention and support prices. The strong gains seen at the start of the year – especially in gold and copper – have in our opinion showed the correct direction for 2023. However, while the direction is correct, we believe the timing could be slightly off, thereby raising the risk of correction before eventually moving higher. With activity in China and parts of Asia unlikely to pick up in earnest until after the Lunar New Year holiday, the prospect of a lull in activity could be the trigger for a pause in the current rally, before gathering fresh momentum and strength from the second quarter and onwards.  Adding these together we conclude the commodity sector remains on a journey towards higher prices, and while the speed of the ascent will slow we project several years ahead where supply of key commodities may struggle to meet demand. With that in mind, we forecast another positive year for commodities resulting in a +10 percent rise in the Bloomberg Total Return Index. Copper Inside our positive view on commodities we are significantly bullish on industrial metals, led by copper, aluminium and lithium due to the green transformation and the enormous political capital being invested in achieving this transition. In addition, the new geopolitical environment will mean a massive boost for the European defence industry which should see double-digit growth rates close to 20 percent per year over the next economic cycle as the European continent doubles its military spending in percentage of GDP. Copper, together with aluminium, has already led a strong start to 2023 for industrial metals on speculation China, the world’s top consumer, will step up its economic support similar to what it did in 2003 (post-WTO entry), 2009 (post-GFC crisis) and 2016 (currency devaluation). This is in order to fuel an economic recovery to offset the economic fallout from President Xi’s failed and now abruptly abandoned zero-Covid policies. This optimism has been mixing with a weaker dollar on speculation that the Federal Reserve is slowing down the pace of future rate hikes as the inflation outlook continues to moderate.  Source: Bloomberg and Saxo The initial and strong rally in copper, however, has primarily been driven by technical and speculative traders frontrunning an expected pickup in demand from China in the coming months. Once the initial rally is over, the hard work begins to support those gains, with an underlying rise in physical demand needed to sustain the rally, not least considering the prospect of increased supply in 2023 as several projects go live. Overall we see copper settle into a USD3.75 to USD4.75 range during the coming months before eventually breaking higher to reach a new record sometime during the second half.  Gold and silver Gold jumped out of the gate to kick off 2023 with strong gains as the positive momentum, supported by a weaker dollar, carried over into the new year. Silver initially struggled to keep up but given our bullish view on copper we see the potential for silver outperforming gold during a year that will signal a turnaround from 2022 as previous headwinds, the stronger dollar and rising yields reverse to add support.  In addition, we see continued strong demand from central banks providing a soft floor in the market. While last year’s record buying of 673 tons during the first three quarters alone (Source: World Gold Council) is unlikely to be repeated, the activity nevertheless is likely to create a soft floor under the market, similar to the one OPEC+ through actively managing supply has established under the crude oil market. Part of that demand is being driven by a handful of central banks wanting to reduce their dollar exposure. This de-dollarisation and general appetite for gold should ensure another strong year of official sector gold buying. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Adding to this, we expect a friendlier investment environment for gold to reverse last year’s 120 tons reduction via ETFs to a renewed increase. However so far, and despite the strong gains since November, we have yet to see demand for ETFs – often used by long-term focused investors – spring back to life, with total holdings still hovering near a two-year low. ETF demand struggles when investors trust central banks will deliver what they promise, and with inflation coming down that that trust is currently not being challenged.  However, it is our belief that inflation, following a slump during the next six months, will start to revert higher, primarily driven by rising wage pressures and China stimulus raising demand and prices for key commodities, including energy and metals. Until such time we will likely see gold spend most of the first quarter consolidating within a USD1,800 to USD1,950 range, before eventually moving higher to reach a fresh record above USD2,100. If achieved we could see silver return to USD30 per ounce, a level that was briefly challenged in early 2021.  Crude oil Crude oil demand will, according to the International Energy Agency, rise by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2023, bringing the total to the highest ever. The main engine behind that price supportive call is a strong recovery in China as the country moves away from lockdowns towards a growth-focused recovery, driven not only by increased mobility on the ground but also supported by a post-pandemic recovery in jet fuel consumption as pent-up travelling demand is unleashed.  What it will do to prices very much depends on producers’ ability and willingness to bump up supply to meet that increase in demand. We expect multiple challenges will emerge on that front to support higher crude oil prices later in the year once demand in China increases, sanctions on Russian crude and fuel products continue to bite, and OPEC shows limited willingness to increase production.   The theme for our quarterly outlook, ie the model is broken, has very much been felt and seen across the energy sector this past year. Russia’s attempt to stifle a sovereign nation and the Western world's push back against Putin’s aggressions in Ukraine remains a sad and unresolved situation that continues to upset the normal flow and prices of key commodities from industrial metals and key crops to gas, fuel products and not least crude oil. EU and G7 sanctions against Russian oil from December last year has created several new price tiers of oil where quality differences and distance to the end user no longer are the only drivers of price differentials between different crude grades. Seaborne crude oil flows from Russia has held up but will increasingly be challenged in the coming months as EU’s product embargo is introduced in February.  These developments have forced Russia to accept a deep discount on its crude sales to customers not involved in sanctions, especially China and India. The second-wave reaction to these developments has been strong refinery margins in China, a country with capacity beyond what is required for the domestic market. Depending on the strength of the economic rebound in China, we are likely to see an increase in product flows from China to the rest of the world. Together with the US, the Middle East, an emerging refining powerhouse, these flows will likely make up the shortfall in Europe from the removal of supply from Russia.  Crude oil’s trajectory during the first quarter primarily depends on the speed with which demand looks set to recover in China. We believe the recovery will be felt stronger later in the year, and not during the first quarter which seasonally tends to be a weak period for demand. With that in mind we see Brent continue to trade near the lower end of the established range this quarter, mostly in the USD80s before recovering later in the year once recession risks begin to fade, China picks up speed and Russian sanctions bite even harder.  OPEC meanwhile has increasingly managed to rein back some price control, not least considering the level of market share it controls together with members of the OPEC+ group. Through their actions they have been able to create a soft floor under the market and the question remains how they will respond to a renewed pickup in demand. Not least considering their frustrations with Western energy companies and what they see as political interference in global oil flows and not least last year’s decision by the White House to release crude oil from its Strategic Reserves.  Overall we see another year where multiple developments will continue to impact both supply and demand, thereby raising the risk of another volatile year which at times may lead to reduced liquidity and with that fundamentally unwarranted peaks and troughs in the market. Following a relatively weak first quarter where Brent should trade predominately in the USD80s, a demand recovery thereafter combined with supply uncertainties should see Brent recover to trade in the USD90s with the risk of temporary spikes taking it above USD100.   Source: China reopening will drive another strong year for commodities | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Silver attracts some buying on Tuesday and holds above the 38.2% Fibo. level support. The setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for an eventual breakdown. A sustained strength beyond the 50-day SMA is needed to negate the bearish outlook. Silver regains some positive traction on Tuesday and sticks to its modest intraday gains, just below mid-$22.00s through the early European session. The white metal, however, lacks bullish conviction and remains well within the striking distance of a nearly two-month low touched on Monday. Looking at the broader picture, the XAG/USD last week confirmed a bearish breakdown through the lower end of a multi-week-old trading range support near the $23.00-$22.90 area. Moreover, bearish technical indicators on the daily chart support prospects for an extension of the recent sharp pullback from the highest level since April 2022 touched last Thursday. The XAG/USD, however, manages to hold above the $22.15 support zone, or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022, which should act as a pivotal point. Some follow-through selling below the $22.00 mark will reaffirm the negative bias and drag the white metal to the next relevant support near the 100-day SMA, around the $21.60-$21.55 zone. On the flip side, any meaningful recovery is likely to confront a hurdle near the aforementioned support breakpoint, around the $23.00-$22.90 region. This is closely followed by the 50-day SMA, currently around the $23.30-$23.35 region. A sustained strength beyond will negate the near-term bearish outlook for the XAG/USD and prompt some short-covering rally. Read next: The Court In Munich Decided In Favor Of BMW| FXMAG.COM The momentum might then allow bulls to reclaim the $24.00 round figure. The XAG/USD could eventually climb back to the $24.55-$24.60 heavy supply zone en route to the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022 and the next relevant hurdle near the $25.35 region. Silver daily chart  

Silver catches fresh bids on Wednesday and recovers from over a two-month low set the previous day. The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further depreciating move. A convincing break below the $22.00 mark will reaffirm the negative outlook and prompt fresh selling. Silver attracts fresh buying on Tuesday and moves away from over a two-month low, around the $22.00 round figure touched the previous day. The white metal sticks to its modest intraday gains through the early European session and trades near the top end of its daily range, around the $22.35 region. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD once again showed some resilience below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022. The subsequent bounce warrants some caution before positioning for a further near-term depreciating move. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in the negative territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, favours bearish traders. A convincing break below the $22.00 mark will reaffirm the negative outlook and drag the XAG/USD to the next relevant support near the 100-day SMA, around the $21.70-$21.65 region. This is followed by 50% Fibo. level, around the $21.35 area, below which the metal could fall to the $21.00 level en route to the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $20.60-$20.55 zone. The descending trend could get extended towards testing the $20.00 psychological mark. Read next: The Court In Munich Decided In Favor Of BMW| FXMAG.COM On the flip side, any subsequent move-up is likely to attract fresh sellers near the $22.70 region and remain capped near the $23.00 confluence support breakpoint. The said handle comprised 23.6% Fibo. level and the lower end of a nearly two-month-old trading range and should act as a tough nut to crack for the XAG/USD bulls. That said, a sustained move beyond might offset the negative outlook and shift the near-term bias in favour of bullish traders. Silver daily chart  

Silver gains positive traction for the second straight day, though lacks follow-through. The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses. A sustained weakness below the $22.00 mark is needed to confirm a bearish break. Silver edges higher for the second successive day on Thursday and sticks to its modest gains through the early European session. The white metal, however, lacks bullish conviction and remains below the mid-$22.00s, well within a familiar trading range held since the beginning of the week. The XAG/USD, meanwhile, manages to hold the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022 and above a two-month low touched on Monday. Furthermore, the subsequent bounce warrants caution before positioning for a further near-term depreciating move. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in the negative territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, favours bearish traders. A convincing break below the $22.00 mark will reaffirm the negative outlook and drag the XAG/USD to the next relevant support near the 100-day SMA, around the $21.80-$21.75 region. This is followed by 50% Fibo. level, around the $21.35 area, below which the metal could fall to the $21.00 level en route to the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $20.60-$20.55 zone. The descending trend could get extended towards testing the $20.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, any subsequent move-up is likely to attract fresh sellers near the $22.70 region and remain capped near the $23.00 confluence support breakpoint. The said handle comprised 23.6% Fibo. level and the lower end of a nearly two-month-old trading range and should act as a tough nut to crack for the XAG/USD bulls. That said, a sustained move beyond might offset the negative outlook and shift the near-term bias in favour of bullish traders. Read next: The GBP/USD Pair Climbed To Around 1.2100, The EUR/USD Pair Is Above 1.0700| FXMAG.COM The XAG/USD might then surpass the $24.00 round-figure mark and climb back to the $24.55-$24.60 supply zone, or a multi-month top touched last week. The momentum could get extended towards reclaiming the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022, above which bulls might aim to test the next relevant hurdle near the $25.35 region. Silver daily chart  

Silver price portrays corrective bounce near 10-week low. Clear downside break of weekly trading range, sustained trading below 200-HMA favor XAG/USD sellers. Silver buyers should remain cautious unless renewing monthly high. Silver price (XAG/USD) picks up bids to print a corrective bounce off the 2.5-month low around $22.00 early Friday morning. In doing so, the bright metal braces for the fourth weekly loss despite poking the support-turned-resistance. That said, the metal’s clear break of the weekly trading range joins successful trading below the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA) to keep the Silver sellers hopeful. Adding strength to the downside bias could be the reference to the metal’s previous fall after breaking the short-term trading range. Hence, the XAG/USD rebound appears elusive unless crossing the support-turned-resistance line of the latest trading range, near $22.05 by the press time. Even if the quote rises past $22.05, it won’t be able to lure the buyers unless clearly crossing the 200-HMA hurdle surrounding $22.90. Read next: Credit Suisse Reported Its Biggest Annual Loss Since The 2008, Ukrainian President Is Asking For Help And More Weapons In Brussels| FXMAG.COM It’s worth noting that the XAG/USD run-up beyond $22.90 appears bumpy and hence upside hopes remain elusive until the quote stays below the current monthly high of $24.63. On the contrary, the latest swing low of around $21.85 precedes the November 24, 2022 swing high near $21.65 to restrict short-term Silver price downside. Following that, the late November low of $20.58 and the $20.00 psychological magnet will gain the market’s attention. Overall, the Silver price remains bearish despite the latest rebound. Silver price: Hourly chart Trend: Further weakness expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators

Silver price takes offers to renew multi-day low, fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off 100-DMA. Bearish MACD signals, failure to rebound from key DMA favor XAG/USD sellers. Nearly oversold RSI (14) line challenges further downside of metal. 200-DMA lures Silver bears unless XAG/USD stays below $23.25. Silver price (XAG/USD) drops 0.85% intraday as it renews the 2.5-month low near $21.80 during early Monday. In doing so, the bright metal pokes the 100-DMA while reversing the previous day’s corrective bounce off the multi-day low. Given the quote’s inability to rebound from the 100-DMA, as well as the bearish MACD signals, the XAG/USD sellers are likely to keep the reins. However, the 200-DMA support, close to the $21.00 round figure, appears a tough nut to crack for the Silver bears. Hence, the precious metal is likely to break the immediate DMA support surrounding $21.80 but may witness a limited downside. It’s worth noting that the October 2022 peak surrounding $21.25 may act as an extra filter towards the south, before hitting the 200-DMA. Meanwhile, Silver buyers need to portray a successful recovery beyond November 2022 peak surrounding $22.25 to regain the market’s confidence. Even so, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early December 2022, close to $23.25, could challenge the XAG/USD bulls. Read next: Campbell Bought A $100,000 Plane To Live In It| FXMAG.COM Following that, a jungle of resistances around $24.30 may test the Silver buyers before directing them to the monthly high of around $24.65, also the highest since April 2022. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected

Silver extends its sideways consolidative price move around the $22.00 mark on Tuesday. The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for additional losses. A sustained break below the 100-day SMA support is needed to confirm the negative bias. Silver continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday and remains confined in a narrow range through the early European session. The white metal is currently placed around the $22.00 mark and seems vulnerable to prolonging its recent pullback from the $24.65 area, or the highest level since April 2022 touched earlier this month. Last week's sustained break and acceptance below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022 adds credence to the negative outlook. Furthermore, technical indicators on the daily chart are holding deep in the negative territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move. That said, bearish traders might wait for some follow-through selling below the 100-day SMA, currently around the $21.75 region, before placing fresh bets. The XAG/USD would then turn vulnerable to testing the 50% Fibo. level, around the $21.35 area. The downward trajectory could get extended further towards the $21.00 level en route to the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $20.60-$20.55 zone. On the flip side, a recovery above 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $22.15 area, is more likely to attract fresh sellers near the $22.60-$22.70 supply zone. This should cap the XAG/USD near the $23.00 mark, representing the 23.6% Fibo. That said, a convincing breakthrough the latter could offset the negative outlook and shift the near-term bias in favour of bullish traders. Read next: GBP/USD Started The New Week In A Calm Way, EUR/USD Is Waiting For US CPI Report| FXMAG.COM The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the XAG/USD further towards reclaiming the $24.00 round-figure mark. Bulls might then aim back to challenge the $24.50 supply zone, which if cleared decisively should pave the way for a fresh leg up. Silver daily chart Key levels to watch remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators

Precious metals in 2023 - what are the Exness' Michael Starks's predictions? Let's find out! How will the price of an ounce of gold/silver change in 2023 - please justify. The outlook for gold this year seems to be quite optimistic because rates are unlikely to rise much further in the USA and inflation will probably stay above target at least until the first quarter of 2024. The probability of negative real rates persisting for another several months at least makes the yellow metal attractive, and in much the same way as shares its performance was generally poor for much of 2022, so the bulls might be keen to return. Read next: Bartosz Milczarek, CEO at Cryptiony: Customers settle the crypto tax in annual returns, so our business model is also based on annual subscriptions | FXMAG.COM For silver many of the same comments apply; however, the intensity of the recession is an important factor because of silver's much greater application for manufacturing. The current general expectation of a fairly mild recession would probably lead to gold outperforming silver to some degree, but a deeper recession could make this a significant difference. The focus is on the American and Chinese economies over the next few months for the answer to this.

Silver prints three-day losing streak as sellers flirt with 2.5-month low. Clear downside break of 100-DMA, bearish MACD signals favor sellers. 50% Fibonacci retracement, 200-DMA challenge further downside. Recovery remains elusive unless crossing $23.15, ascending trend line from early September 2022 adds to the downside filters. Silver price (XAG/USD) remains on the bear’s radar as the bright metal renews intraday low near $21.70 during early Wednesday in Europe. In doing so, the bullion stays pressured around the lowest levels since November 30 amid a three-day downtrend. The quote’s weakness could be linked to the daily closing below the 100-DMA, as well as sustained trading below the previous support line from early December 2022, respectively near $21.95 and $23.15. As a result, the XAG/USD bears have a free hand while expecting further downside of the metal. However, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of September 2022 to February 2023 upside, near $21.10, precedes the 200-DMA level of $21.00 to offer a strong challenge to the Silver sellers. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement surrounding $20.30, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, as well as a 5.5-month-old ascending support line, close to $20.00 round figure, will become the key for the XAG/USD sellers to watch. Read next: GBP/USD Pair Rose Sharply Above $1.22, EUR/USD Pair Also Rose| FXMAG.COM Alternatively, recovery moves need to stay beyond the 100-DMA hurdle of $21.95, as well as the $22.00 round figure to convince intraday buyers of the Silver. Even so, the previous weekly high near $22.60 and the support-turned-resistance line from December 06, 2022, close to $23.15, could challenge the XAG/USD bulls before giving them control. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected

Silver price bounces off 10-week low to snap three-day downtrend. Cautious optimism, pullback in yields underpin US Dollar’s retreat from multi-day high and favor XAG/USD buyers. China, second-tier US data may entertain Silver traders ahead of next week’s FOMC Minutes. Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats from intraday high but remains mildly bid near $21.70 during the early hours of Thursday’s European session. The bright metal’s latest pullback, which marks the first daily loss in four, could be the resettlement of the previous bias as Western traders return to their desks. However, a lack of major data/events joins the cautious optimism backed by Chinese news to put a floor under the XAG/USD price. The risk profile, however, improves as Chinese President Xi Jinping shows readiness to deepen industrial and investment cooperation with Asia. On the same line were the upbeat comments from Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun who said that the 2023 fiscal revenue will grow this year, though the growth rate will not be too high, per the Chinese state media. It should be noted that the strong US data bolstered the hawkish Fed bias and weighed on the Silver price to print a 10-week low the previous day. Among the key data, US Retail Sales for January and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February gained major attention. Following the data, the market’s bets on the Fed’s next moves, as per the FEDWATCH tool of Reuters, suggest the US central bank’s benchmark rate is to peak in July around 5.25% versus the December Federal Reserve prediction of 5.10% top rate. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 4,165 while extending the previous day’s gains whereas the US 10-year Treasury bond yields retreat following the run-up to a 1.5-month high marked on Wednesday, down two basis points to near 3.78% by the press time. Further, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints 0.15% intraday loss while easing to 103.70 at the latest, after rising to the 1.5-month high the previous day. Given the light calendar for the day and the week, the Silver price may remain depressed while the second-tier US data concerning the housing market, industrial activity and producer prices can entertain traders. However, major attention will be given to the next week’s Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. Technical analysis Despite the corrective bounce amid oversold RSI (14) on the daily chart, the Silver price remains below the 100-DMA hurdle, currently around the $22.00 round figure, which in turn keeps the XAG/USD sellers hopeful to visiting the 200-DMA level surrounding $21.00.

Summary:  Metals have been in a corrective phase for the past few weeks but after bouncing from key supports the correction could be over. Jury's still out however, and Strength Indicator on Gold and Silver still indicates lower levels. Copper looks the better of the of three Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team Gold XAUUSD is testing the 0.382 retracement at 1,828 a few cents above support at around 1,825.RSI is below 40 threshold i.e., in negative sentiment indicating lower levels.Bollinger bands are expanding further adding to the bearish scenario.Gold could drop to support at around 1,768 but needs to close below 1,825 to extend the correction.100 and 200 MA’s will provide support.If Gold crawls back above 1,870 it could be an indication the correction is over and Gold will resume to uptrend if moving back above 1,890. Source all data and charts: Saxo Group Silver XAGUSD is dropping lower after breaking support at around 22. RSI is bearish indicating lower levels are likely, and a sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement and support around 20.55 could be seen. Minor support at 21.25 seems to hold for now If Silver moves back above 22.60 it could get upside traction to 23.10 which is needed to move back above for Silver to resume uptrend. Copper has dipped below 400 and seems to bounce above the 0.618 retracement of January strong bullish move at 395, and the lower rising trendline.RSI is still bullish bouncing from the 40 threshold.A close below 395 and RSI below 40 could fuel further selling down to 380-370.For Copper to resume uptrend a close above 412 is needed.   Source: Technical Update - Is the correction over in Gold, Silver and Copper? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

With the appearance of a deviation between the price movement of Silver and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator, in the next few days Silver has the potential to depreciate downwards to the level of 19,920 as the first target and if the momentum and volatility are sufficiently supportive then the level of 18,800 will be the second target. However, please pay attention when it is on its way to the target that has been previously described suddenly has an upward correction on this Silver instrument which has passed the level of 23,550 then all the downward scenarios described previously will become invalid and cancelled by itself.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-02-19 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/119619

Silver price refreshes 11-week low during five-day losing streak. 100-DMA breakdown, bearish MACD signals favor sellers around multi-day low. Oversold RSI hints at corrective bounce, highlights 200-DMA, $20.00 as key supports. Silver price (XAG/USD) holds lower ground at the 2.5-month bottom surrounding $21.45 amid the early hours of Friday morning in Europe. The bright metal refreshed the multi-day low on breaking the 100-DMA, as well as taking clues from the bearish MACD signals. However, the oversold RSI (14) conditions suggest limited downside room for the XAG/USD. As a result, the 200-DMA level surrounding $21.00 appears putting a short-term floor under the Silver price. In a case where the XAG/USD drops below $21.00, a convergence of the previous resistance line from March 2022 and an ascending trend line from the last September, close to the $20.00 psychological magnet, will be a tough nut to crack for the Silver sellers. It should be noted that the quote’s weakness past $20.00 makes it vulnerable to test the previous yearly bottom marked in September at around $17.55. Read next: USD/JPY Is Trading Close To 134.00, EUR/USD Is Remaining Above $1.07| FXMAG.COM Alternatively, XAG/USD rebound remains elusive unless crossing the 100-DMA level near the $22.00 round figure. Following that, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the metal’s fall between March and September of 2022, respectively near $22.30 and $23.35, could act as additional upside filters for the Silver buyers to watch. Above all, the monthly high of $24.63 acts as the last defense of the XAG/USD bears. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected

Better-than-expected economic data and persistently high inflation are prompting markets to revise their expectations for U.S. interest rates again, bringing the idea of a higher long-term federal funds rate back into the discussion. According to the latest research from TD Securities senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali, these conditions may continue to put pressure on the precious metals sector. Ghali believes silver may be the best way to play the downtrend in precious metals. He added that a break below $20.80 would confirm the resumption of the downtrend. Many analysts note that gold and silver are struggling as bond yields have risen significantly this month. The yield on 10-year bonds is currently 3.84%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool forecast, in the first half of the year, federal funds rates will exceed 5%, and the decline will occur only by the end of the year.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-02-22 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/335437

Silver price holds lower ground near intraday bottom, snaps two-day winning streak. U-turn from key moving average, Fibonacci retracement level joins bearish MACD signals to favor XAG/USD bears. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement adds to the upside filters, $21.40 acts as immediate support. Silver price (XAG/USD) remains depressed around $21.70 during the first loss-making day in three heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the bright metal portrays a clear reversal from the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA), as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its moves between February 09 and 17. Not only the U-turn from the key technical hurdles but the bearish MACD signals also keep XAG/USD sellers hopeful. With this, the precious metal’s further declines toward one-week-old horizontal support near $21.40 appear imminent. However, the monthly low near $21.20 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the metal’s moves from February 09 to 20, around the $21.00 threshold, could challenge the Silver bears. In a case where the metal remains bearish past $21.00, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the $20.00 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, the 200-HMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, respectively close to $21.85 and $21.90, restrict short-term recovery of the XAG/USD. Following that, the $22.00 round figure will precede the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the gold Fibonacci ratio, could challenge the Silver buyers around $22.05. Should the XAG/USD remains firmer past $22.05, the February 10 swing high near $22.30 could act as the last defense of the bears. Silver price: Hourly chart Trend: Further downside expected

Silver remains confined in a narrow trading band below the $22.00 mark, or the 100-day SMA. The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term fall. A sustained strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. level will negate the bearish bias for the XAG/USD. Silver struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Wednesday and oscillates in a narrow trading range through the early European session. The white metal remains below the $22.00 round-figure mark and the technical setup still seems tilted in favour of bearish traders. The aforementioned handle coincides with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and keeps a lid on the recovery from the YTD low, around the $21.20-$21.15 region touched last Friday. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in the bearish territory and add credence to the near-term negative outlook. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the downside. That said, some follow-through buying beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022, around the $22.15 zone, could negate the bearish bias and prompt some short-covering rally. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the momentum towards the $22.55-$22.60 supply zone, en route to the $23.00 mark, or the 61.8% Fibo. level, which could cap any further positive move. On the flip side, the 50% Fibo. level, around the $21.35 area, now seems to act as immediate support ahead of Friday's swing low, around the $21.20-$21.15 zone. A convincing break below the $21.00 mark could drag the XAG/USD towards the $20.60 region. The downward trajectory could get extended further towards the $20.00 psychological mark and the next relevant support near the $19.75-$19.70 zone. Silver daily chart  

Silver is seen consolidating this week’s downfall back closer to the YTD low. The setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses. A sustained move beyond the $22.00 barrier could negate the bearish bias. Silver enters a bearish consolidation phase on Friday and oscillates in a narrow trading band through the early European session. The white metal is currently placed around the $21.30-$21.25 area, just above the YTD low touched last week, and seems vulnerable to slide further. The XAG/USD now seems to have found acceptance below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022. This comes on the back of this week's repeated failures near the $22.00 mark, or the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. That said, Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flashing slightly oversold conditions and warrants some caution. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before placing fresh bearish bets around the XAG/USD positioning for any further depreciating move. Nevertheless, the XAG/USD seems poised to weaken further below the $21.00 mark (200-day SMA) and accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near the $20.60 zone. The downward trajectory could get extended further towards the $20.00 psychological mark en route to the $19.75-$19.70 region. On the flip side, the $21.55-$21.60 region now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. Any subsequent move-up might continue to attract fresh sellers near the $22.00 mark. The said handle is closely followed by the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $22.15 zone, which should now act as a key pivotal point. A sustained strength beyond could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD towards the $22.55-$22.60 supply zone. Bulls might eventually aim to reclaim the $23.00 round-figure mark, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibo. level. Silver daily chart  

Silver continues losing ground for the fourth straight day and refreshes the YTD low on Monday. Oversold oscillators on the daily chart help the XAG/USD to find support near the 61.8% Fibo. The setup still favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further depreciating move. Silver remains under some selling pressure for the fourth successive day and drops to a fresh YTD low during the first half of trading on Monday. The white metal currently trades just above the mid-$20.00s and seems vulnerable to prolonging the recent downfall witnessed since the beginning of this month. Friday's convincing break and acceptance below a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) adds credence to the negative outlook. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are flashing extremely oversold conditions, making it prudent to wait for some consolidation or a modest rebound before positioning for further losses. Read next: Pfizer Is In The Early Stages Of An Acquisition Of Biotech Company Seagen, Twitter's Staff Has Shrunk Since Elon Musk Took Over| FXMAG.COM Any attempted recovery, however, is more likely to meet with a fresh supply near the $21.00 mark. This, in turn, should cap the XAG/USD near the $21.30-$21.35 region, marking the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from October 2022. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if cleared could prompt some near-term short-covering. Bearish traders, meanwhile, take a breather near the 61.8% Fibo. level, below which the XAG/USD could accelerate the fall towards challenging the $20.00 psychological mark. The white metal could eventually drop to the $19.75-$19.70 intermediate support en route to the $19.15 horizontal zone and the $19.00 round-figure mark. Silver daily chart  

Silver price snaps four-day downtrend while bouncing off the lowest levels since early November 2022. Bearish MACD signals, sustained trading below 200-DMA keep sellers hopeful. Multiple hurdles stand tall to challenge XAG/USD buyers. Silver price (XAG/USD) clings to mild gains around $20.70 as bulls struggle to defend the first daily gains in five during early Tuesday. That said, the bright metal dropped to the lowest levels since November 2022 before bouncing off $20.56. The metal’s recovery could be linked to a U-turn from the three-month-old horizontal support. Despite the latest rebound, the XAG/USD remains on the seller’s radar as it stays below the 200-DMA amid bearish MACD signals. Even if the precious metal crosses the 200-DMA hurdle of $21.00, a downward-sloping resistance line from February 02, close to $21.25 by the press time, could challenge the Silver buyers afterward. It’s worth observing that the XAG/USD bears remain hopeful unless the quote stays below the $22.00-10 resistance area comprising multiple tops marked since the last November. On the contrary, a daily closing below the aforementioned three-month-old horizontal support near $20.50 will challenge an ascending support line from early September 2022, around $20.25 to please the Silver bears. It should be noted that the $20.00 psychological magnet acts as an extra filter toward the south. Overall, the Silver price remains weak unless breaking the $22.10 hurdle. The downside moves, however, appear to have limited room towards the south. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Bearish

The metals markets are awaiting the outcome of China’s ‘Two Sessions’ political meeting in Beijing this weekend that might drive demand. Meanwhile, Freeport has restarted the Grasberg copper mining complex after nearly two weeks of inactivity due to landslides and floods Freeport's Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia, pictured in 2013 Energy – Freeport resumes commercial operations at the LNG terminal The oil market traded flat this morning with ICE Brent prices heading for a fourth consecutive monthly decline, as the persistent weak macro sentiments and higher stockpiles weighed on recent supply concerns as well as the healthy demand expectations from China. Meanwhile, a stronger USD index is also adding pressure to oil prices. Meanwhile, Ecuador is preparing to restart its OCP and SOTE pipelines today after finishing contingency and repair work. These two crude pipelines were shut down on 22 February after being affected by soil erosion, which resulted in Petroecuador declaring force majeure on oil exports of around 2.88MMbbls. Ecuador’s oil output has also dropped by nearly half to around 244Mbbls/d as the shutdown of the pipeline forced the company to shut its oil wells as well. In a filing to FERC, Freeport has reported that the commercial operations at train-3 of the LNG terminal have reached full capacity whilst train-2 is going on with the restart activity. The company reported that it has sought approval to resume commercial operations at train-1 as well once the restart activity is complete and certain operating conditions are met. The Freeport LNG terminal with a capacity of around 2.2bcf/d was shut down in June 2022 due to an accident at the site. The latest data shows that feed gas deliveries to the Freeport LNG terminal have increased to around 700-800MMcf/d recently as train-3 resumed operations. LNG export resumptions from the terminal are likely to help improve natural gas supplies in the European market. NYMEX henry hub prices have jumped by around 30% over the past week as demand increases. Metals – Freeport restarts Grasberg mine Freeport McMoRan has restarted operations at its Grasberg mining complex in Indonesia after shutting it earlier in the month due to landslides and floods. The company said that the damage to the mill and plant was limited, although it has not confirmed the number of supply disruptions due to the mine closure. At around 5m pounds per day of copper production, the two-week mine closure has likely impacted around 30kt of copper production. SGX iron ore has recovered marginally today after falling nearly 6.5% over the past week as Tangshan city (a steelmaking hub in north China) started production restrictions in an effort to control emissions ahead of the ‘Two Sessions’ political gathering in the country. The meeting is watched closely for any government support towards the economy and industry, especially the construction and steel sector. The latest market reports suggest that some lithium mines at major production hubs in China have restarted after a government investigation halted mining activity last week. Lithium mines at Yichun located in the southeastern Jiangxi province were forced to halt operations last week, impacting roughly 10% of the global output. However, it was later reported that all mines with valid government permits have resumed operations. The move came following the reports of unlicensed mining and environmental infringement activities in the province, resulting in a complete halt of mining activities in Yichun. Agriculture – UNICA reports marginal gains in cane crush The recent report from the UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Center-South Brazil over the first half of February stood at 73kt compared to no crushing a year ago, as the processing had already been halted by this time. Cumulatively, crushing has risen by 3.8% year-on-year so far this season and stands at 542.5mt. Meanwhile, sugar production stood at just 2kt during the above-mentioned period, with around 23.6% of cane allocated to sugar production. Cumulatively, sugar output has risen by 4.5% YoY to 33.5mt in the season so far with most of the sugar cane mills finished their processing for the season. The latest data from Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry shows that the nation exported around 31.8mt of grains as of 27 February so far in the 2022/23 season, a decline of 27% compared to 43.5mt grains exported during the same period last year. Total corn shipments stood at 18.2mt (-5.8% YoY), while wheat exports fell 38% YoY to 11.2mt as of Monday. USDA’s weekly export inspection data show demand for US soy and corn fell while remaining strong for wheat for the week ending 23 February. US weekly inspection of soybean for exports fell to 691kt over the last week, lower when compared to 1.58mt in the previous week and 739.5kt during the same time last year. Similarly, corn shipment inspections have declined to 572.6kt over the last week, compared to 623.8kt from a week ago and are significantly down from 1.56mt during the same time last year. Meanwhile, wheat export inspections rose last week from 374.4kt to 591.7kt, while remaining higher when compared to 430kt during the same time last year. Read this article on THINK TagsOil Metals Grains Energy Commodities Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Silver price extends the previous day’s recovery from the lowest levels since early November 2022. Sustained break of 100-HMA, bullish MACD signals and ascending trend channel keep buyers hopeful. Overbought RSI conditions challenge XAG/USD run-up past $21.20 hurdle, 200-HMA act as additional upside filter. Silver price (XAG/USD) remains firmer around $21.10 as bulls extend the previous day’s rebound from the multi-day low during early Wednesday. In doing so, the bright metal marches with a two-day-old ascending trend channel while justifying the bullish MACD signals. However, the overbought conditions of the RSI (14) join multiple technical hurdles around $21.20 to challenge the metal’s further upside momentum. Among the key resistances, the February 17 swing low and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s February 22-28 fall gain major attention. Also challenging the buyers is the upper line of the stated bullish channel. Even if the XAG/USD rises past $21.20, the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA) could challenge bullion buyers near $21.35. Following that, a north-run towards the late February swing high near $22.00 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, a downside break of the 100-HMA, around $21.00 by the press time, could challenge the nearby bullish chart formation by poking the $20.90 support. Should the quote successfully defies the ascending trend channel, the previous monthly low near $20.40 and the $20.00 psychological magnet will gain the market’s attention. To sum up, the Silver price is likely to remain in recovery mode but the upside room appears limited. Silver price: Hourly chart Trend: Limited upside expected

Summary:  US equities posted an uninspiring session, as the price action is bottled up ahead of the key support of the 200-day moving average in the major indices. Overnight, China’s official Manufacturing PMI ripped higher in February with its strongest reading since 2012, strong suggesting that the China re-opening is swing into motion. Hot inflation data from France and Spain pulled ECB expectations sharply higher yesterday, with German Feb. CPI up today. What is our trading focus? US equities (US500.I and USNAS100.I): caught between growth and inflation US equities headed lower yesterday with S&P 500 futures closing at the 3,975 level. The index futures are trying to rebound this morning following stronger than expected China February PMI figures suggesting the economy is responding positively to the reopening. This growth impulse lifted Hang Seng futures by 4.2% and breathed fresh air into commodities. The growth impulse from China will keep inflation pressures high in the global economy and that could force long-term bond yields in the US and Europe higher from current levels which will make equities caught between responding positive to growth or negatively to inflation and potentially higher interest rates. Hang Seng Index (HSI.I) and CSI300 (000300.I) jumped on strong China PMIs Hang Seng Index surged 3.5% and CSI300 gained 1.7% by in the morning session following the release of strong PMI data much above consensus estimates. The headline official NBS Manufacturing PMI surged (more below). The NBS non-manufacturing PMI and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, also released today, both bounced strongly and signaled economic expansion. Mega-cap China internet names surged 5-7% and EV stocks jumped 5-8%. In A-shares, telcos, digital economy, software, gaming, and media stocks led the charge higher. FX: AUD and JPY were the laggards last month as dollar regained ground The dollar closed firmer at the end of the month as inflation concerns returned and sent the short-end yields surging to 15-year highs. AUDUSD was the weakest on the G10 board as a beating of the risk sentiment and weaker metal prices saw pair test 0.67 despite the return of RBA’s hawkish stance. Yen had a double blow from surging yields and the dovish read of Ueda’s nomination hearing for the Bank of Japan governorship, and USDJPY tested close to 137 yesterday before reversing back below 136.50. EURUSD touched highs of 1.0650 after the French/Spanish inflation prints yesterday but is back below 1.0600 this morning. GBPUSD nearly hit 1.2150 yesterday after the N. Ireland border announcement, but is back closer to 1.2050 this morning. Crude oil recovers as strong China PMI re-ignites demand focus Brent crude trades near $84 and WTI at $77.50 as both futures markets continue to recover from the latest the macroeconomic related selloff. With a hawkish Fed having been priced in, the dollar has started to weaken allowing traders to return their focus to an ongoing recovery in China. The strength of which was confirmed overnight when China’s PMI data showed across the board strength. The official headline surged to 52.6 and highest since 2012 while production and new orders improving markedly and new export orders move well above 50 and into expansion territory for the first time in 23 months. Increased tightness is being signaled through steepening prompt spreads with Brent trading at 59 cents a barrel from a recent 34 cent low. Also supporting are reports that Russia is struggling to find new buyers with million of barrels currently stored at sea. Ahead of EIA’s weekly stock report, the API said US inventories rose 6.2m barrels last week. Short-term momentum indicators point to higher prices with Brent once looking to challenge the downtrend from last March around $84.50. Silver led gold higher, but more work needed to shift sentiment Precious metals trade higher for a third day after the market concluded the latest round of hawkish comments from US FOMC members and additional rate hikes were now being fully priced in. Continued strength in US yields, near recent highs, have been offset by weaker dollar, allowing buyers once again to gain the upper hand. Silver, down around 12% in January, led the recovery which gathered speed overnight following the release of stronger than expected economic data in China (see below). The gold-silver ratio which yesterday hit a four-month high at 88.4 (ounces of silver to one ounce of gold) has since retraced to around 86.80. Gold as a minimum needs to break $1864, and silver $22 to signal an end to the current corrections Industrial metals jump on strong China rebound Copper and not least aluminum, zinc and iron ore traded higher following a batch of economic data from China showed improved factory activity as well as rising home sales, both driving expectations for an accelerated demand recovery, thereby once again replacing concerns about the economic impact of additional US rate hikes. Having found support below $4, the HG copper futures contract trades back above its 21DMA, a sign momentum is turning positive again. Since mid January the price has traded within a 30 cents downward trending channel, and for that to change, the price needs to break above $4.20, some 2% above the current level. Focus now turns to on China’s “Two Sessions” starting at the weekend. Yields on US Treasuries (TLT:Xmas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) steady near recent highs US Treasury yields staid pinned near recent cycle highs, with the 2-year trading above 4.8% this morning again and the 10-year benchmark hovering just below 4.00%. Yields were dragged higher yesterday by a fresh surge in European short yields on the French and Spanish CPI data for February (see below) and stayed elevated in the US despite the weak February Consumer Confidence print. The next test for the US treasury market is perhaps the February ISM Services survey on Friday. What is going on? China's economy shows strong recovery as PMI’s beat expectations The official NBS China Manufactuing PMI surged to 52.6 in February, the highest level since 2012, from 50.1 in January. The strength was across the board with the Production sub-index and New Orders sub-index improving markedly to 56.7 and 54.1 respectively. When a diffusion index goes above 50, it signals expansion. The export sector, which has until now been sluggish, showed signs of a strong recovery. The New Export Orders sub-index in the NBS survey unexpectedly surged to 54.1 in February from 46.1 in January and was the first time returning to the expansion territory in 23 months. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which covers smaller and more private enterprises in the export-oriented coastal regions of China relative to those covered in the NBS survey, also recovered strongly to 51.6 in February from 49.2 in January and the new order sub-index in the Caixin survey bounced to 52.2 from 49.3. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI continued to accelerate well into expansion, rising to 56.3 from 54.4. Both major sub-indices rose further, with the Services sub-index advancing to 55.6 and the Construction sub-index soaring to 60.2. US consumer confidence in a surprise drop, labor market strength intact The Conference Board's US consumer confidence index saw a surprise fall to 102.9 in February (vs. exp 108.5) from January’s 106 which was also revised lower from 107.1. The present situation index looked resilient at 152.8 from 151.1 and reaching its highest levels since April 2022, but the forward expectations index declined to 69.7 from 76.0 previously. While the headline figures may be a small input for the Fed, the labor-supply mismatch has become more evident from the consumer confidence report. The report showed that the labor differential improved to 41.5 in February from 37 in the prior month, rising for a third consecutive month and reaching its highest levels since April 2022. The differential represents the percentage of respondents who say jobs “are plentiful” less those who say jobs “are hard to get”. Its rise could be an early indication of labor market strength heading into next week’s February Payrolls data. Focus turns to ISM manufacturing survey today which is expected to improve but still remain in contraction. ECB rate hike bets pick up after higher French and Spanish inflation Consumer prices in France jumped by a record 7.2% YoY in February as food and services costs increased, while Spain saw a stronger-than-expected 6.1% YoY advance. The strong inflation now results mostly from companies passing through to consumers higher prices in the service sector and higher food prices. Looking at the French data, food prices (price increase of+14.5% YoY) contribute twice more to inflation than energy prices. The increase of prices in the service sector (which represents about 50% of the CPI basket) is another source of worry. Expect it to get worse in the short-term. We also see a similar trend in most European countries (the situation is even uglier in the CEE region), with the first print of German February inflation due today and the Eurozone print due tomorrow. Euro bonds slid with German yields up 7bps and Spanish yields up 6bps as ECB terminal rate pricing briefly touched 4%. AUD swings to a gain after China’s economy shows signs of a stronger rebound After China's manufacturing activity hit a decade high as noted above, the Australian dollar against the US dollar (AUDUSD) rose sharply. Iron ore, copper and aluminium prices all gained. This supported the AUDUSD pair rebounding from 10-week lows, which it hit earlier after Australian GDP slowed to pace of 2.7% YoY in Q4 as expected while headline monthly CPI cooled to 7.4% YoY, vs the 8.1% growth forecast. Short covering also added to the Aussie dollar whipsawing higher. What are we watching next? Tesla Investor Day Tesla’s annual ‘Investor Day’ is scheduled for tonight at 21:00 GMT and will be livestreamed on Tesla’s website. Elon Musk has teased in tweets that the Investor Day presentation will revolve around the part 3 in his ‘Master Plan’ which was first announced back in 2006 and Elon Musk has specially written that the ‘Master Plan 3’ is about ‘the path to a fully sustainable energy future for Earth...’ suggesting it might be around energy. One the key variables in the path to electrifying society is about energy production, energy storage, and the electric grid, and as such it might be that Tesla will aim solve these issues so Tesla’s growth is not constrained too early by the lack of investments and solutions on the infrastructure side of the equation. Germany’s Feb. CPI data today, Eurozone Feb. CPI tomorrow After French and Spanish February CPI readings sparked higher expectations for the ECB as noted above, we will get a look at German regional CPI releases this morning for February and the nationwide data this afternoon at 1300 GMT, with the German 2-year yield having leaped to nearly 3.20% yesterday after starting the weak below 2.9%. Expectations are for a reading of +0.5% MoM and +8.5% YoY vs. +8.75 in January, with the “EU Harmonized” reading seen slowing to +9.0% YoY vs. 9.2% in Jan. Earnings to watch Today’s key US earnings releases to watch are Salesforce (reporting after the close), Snowflake (reporting after the close), and NIO (reporting before the open). Analysts expect Salesforce to report 9% y/y revenue growth for the quarter that ended in January and EBITDA of $2.67bn up from $1.02bn a year ago as the software application maker is under pressure from several activist investors to improve profitability. Analysts expect Snowflake to report revenue growth of 50% y/y in the quarter that ended in January and EBITDA of $25mn up from $-146mn a year ago. NIO, that finally ramped up its EV production in Q4 after several quarters of slow increases, is expected to report 73% y/y revenue growth but still delivering an operating loss of CNY -3.4bn. Wednesday: Royal Bank of Canada, Beiersdorf, Reckitt Benckiser, Kuehne + Nagel, Salesforce, Lowe’s, Snowflake, NIO Thursday: Anheuser-Busch InBev, Argenx, Yunnan Energy New Material, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Fortum, Veolia Environment, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, CRH, London Stock Exchange, Haleon, Flutter Entertainment, Universal Music Group, Broadcom, Costco, VMware, Marvell Technology, Dell Technologies Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0815-0900 – Eurozone Final Feb. Manufacturing PMI 0855 – Germany Feb. Unemployment Change / Claims 0930 – UK Jan. Mortgage Approvals 1000 – UK Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey to speak 1300 – Germany Feb. CPI 1500 – US Feb. ISM Manufacturing 1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 1830 – Mexico Central Bank Inflation Report 0030 – Australia Jan. Building Approvals   Source:Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – March 1, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show a continuous build-up of crude oil inventory in the US. Demand for US crude in the external market is strong due to the high discount to WTI; however, slower domestic demand continues to keep the market in surplus At current price ratios, silver appears to offer better value for investors than gold Energy – High inventory puts pressure on WTI The spread between Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) active contracts widened to US$6.5/bbl yesterday, increasing from US$6.3/bbl a week ago and a recent low of around US$4.3/bbl in early January, as the weekly EIA report continues to highlight the crude oil supply surplus in the US market. A heavier-than-usual refinery maintenance season in the country keeps domestic crude oil demand under pressure with refinery inputs staying below the five-year average so far in the year. The latest data from the EIA show that US commercial crude oil inventories have increased by 1.2MMbbls over the last week, the tenth consecutive week of inventory build-up. The inventory gain was smaller than what American Petroleum Institute (API) reported yesterday at 6.2MMbbls and the market expectations of around 1.4MMbbls. US crude oil inventory has now increased by around 60MMbbls since the start of the year, with total stocks sitting at 480.2MMbbls as of 24 February 2023 compared to the five-year average of around 437.8MMbbls at this point in the season. EIA data also show that US crude oil exports increased to a record high of 5.6MMbbls/d (+1.03MMbbls/d WoW) over the last week as higher discounts of WTI over the Brent and healthy demand from Europe pushed up demand for US cargoes. Meanwhile, crude oil imports were down by 0.12MMbbls/d to 6.2MMbbls/d. As for refined product inventories, gasoline stocks fell by 874Mbbls, while distillate stocks increased by a marginal 179Mbbls. Refinery utilisation was also down 0.1% year-on-year to 85.8%. Metals – High gold-silver price ratio makes silver attractive again The uncertainty around the US Federal Reserve rate hikes and economic slowdown concerns have been putting more pressure on silver compared to gold in recent weeks. Silver prices have dropped by around 13% since the start of the year whilst gold is largely flat. The gold-silver price ratio has increased from around 76 at the start of the year to 88 currently. At current price ratios, silver appears to offer better value for investors compared to gold. Meanwhile, gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings continue to fall whilst silver ETF holdings have recovered significantly from lows in January. Bloomberg data show that total known ETF holdings of silver have recovered to around 762.3m oz currently after hitting a low of 738.5m oz in January 2023. Brazil’s iron ore exports recovered in February after falling sharply in the previous month primarily due to weather-related disruptions. The latest data from Brazil’s Trade Ministry shows that monthly iron ore shipments from the nation rose 25.5% YoY and 2% month-on-month to 23.4mt in February. Earlier, iron ore shipments from Brazil declined more than 22% MoM in January which tightened the supply outlook for the raw material. Agriculture – ICCO foresees limited supply deficit for cocoa The latest report from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) estimates a largely balanced market for cocoa in 2022/23 although supply risks remain due to inclement weather, especially in West Africa. The organisation expects global cocoa production to rise by 4.1% YoY to 5.02mt for the 2022/23 season. Total grindings are expected to decline marginally by 0.6% YoY to 5.03mt during the same period. Meanwhile, cocoa stockpiles are forecasted to drop by 3.5% YoY to 1.7mt in 2022/23. ICCO believes that these forecasts are subject to risks rising from climate change, crop diseases and the macroeconomic outlook. The most active contract of ICE Cocoa futures rose to the highest level in three years following the global supply shortage expectations. The All India Sugar Trade Association trimmed its forecast for sugar production in the nation from 34.5mt to 33.5mt for 2022/23. The association said that the heavy rains caused waterlogging in the fields impacting the growth of cane. Meanwhile, there is potential for further downside to current estimates. Read this article on THINK TagsSilver Oil Gold Commodities Cocoa Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Silver price clings to 200-DMA as buyers struggle to extend key trend line breakout. Looming bull cross on MACD, nearly oversold RSI conditions favor bullish bias. Previous resistance line from early February, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level restricts immediate downside. Silver price (XAG/USD) prints mild gains around $21.00 as it braces for the first weekly gain in seven during early Friday in Europe. In doing so, the bright metal seesaws around the 200-DMA while keeping the previous day’s break out of the one-month-old descending resistance line, now support around $20.60. Adding strength to the $20.60 support is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the metal’s run-up from October 2022 to February 2023. The impending bull cross on the MACD indicator and the RSI (14) rebound from the oversold territory also appears to favor the Silver buyers, in addition to the sustained break of the previous key resistance and the successful rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as golden Fibonacci retracement ratio. As a result, the XAG/USD buyers are all set to extend the latest recovery moves toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $21.36, given the daily closing beyond the 200-DMA level of $21.00. However, the convergence of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-DMA, around $22.15, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls afterward. Meanwhile, pullback moves need to provide a daily closing below $20.60 support confluence, mentioned the previous day, to recall the Silver sellers. Following that, the $20.00 psychological magnet and October 2022 low near $18.10 could gain the XAG/USD bear’s attention. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected

Silver price retreats towards intraday low, defends previous day’s pullback from one-week high. One-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern joins downbeat MACD signals to favor sellers. Previous resistance line from early February lures XAG/USD bears. Silver price (XAG/USD) stays on the bear’s radar, despite an early-day attempt to tease buyers, as the metal drops to $21.05 amid the initial European session on Tuesday. In doing so, the bullion defends the week-start pullback from the highest levels since February 24. That said, the bright metal portrays a one-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. The same join the bearish MACD signals to strengthen the downside bias. However, a clear break of $21.00 becomes necessary to witness a downtrend towards a one-month-old previous resistance line, near $20.10 by the press time. It should be observed that the latest swing low near $20.40 and the $20.00 round figure appear as the extra filters toward the south. On the flip side, a downward-sloping resistance line from February 09, close to $21.20 at the latest, restricts the XAU/USD’s immediate recovery ahead of the stated wedge’s top line, near 21.40 by the press time. Even if the Silver price crosses the $21.40 hurdle, the late February swing high near the $22.00 round figure could act as the validation point for the metal’s run-up toward the previous monthly high surrounding $24.65. Overall, the Silver price is likely to remain pressured as traders await the key weekly event, namely Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s Testimony. Silver price: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected

Summary:  Gold and especially silver slumped on Tuesday after Fed Chair Powell said the Fed was prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes and to a higher-than-expected level should incoming data continued to show strength. Gold has despite the stronger dollar and rising rates risk managed to find support ahead of key support in the $1800 area, driven by the risk of either economic data turning softer or higher rates forcing a policy mistake leading to peak rates and recession, all events that may end up being supportive for gold and precious metals in general Today's Saxo Market Call podcastToday's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy TeamEquity update: Powell turns hawkish - The calm before the storm?Forex update: Powellb surprises hawkish, data still in driver's seat Gold and especially silver slumped on Tuesday after Fed Chair Powell, in his prepared remarks to Congress, said the Fed was prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes and to a higher-than-expected level should incoming data continued to show strength. Terminal Fed rate expectations shifted higher to 5.66% with the market now pricing in a 60% risk of a 50 bp move at the March 22 meeting.  Across market risk appetite tumbled, not least due to the dollar hitting a fresh high for the year,  with the selloff in metals being led by silver’s 4.6% slump to a four-month low near $20. Gold meanwhile has given back most of last week's bounce and following the failure to challenge resistance at $1864 and stay above the 21-day moving average, a development that otherwise would have signalled a return of positive momentum, the market is once again looking for support in the $1800 area ahead of $1775, the 200-day moving average. Source: Saxo During the Q&A session that followed his prepared statement, a tasty exchange between Powell and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) highlighted the risk the FOMC, not fully understanding their limitations in bringing inflation under control, will continue to hike rates until something brakes. The senator asked Powell what he would say to two million people losing their jobs if he keeps raising rates. To this he answered: “Will working people be better off if we just walk away from our jobs and inflation remains 5%-6%?”.His comment further supported the view that the FOMC will hike faster, higher and for longer, with the obvious risk to the economic outlook and with that the eventual need to cut rates. We will continue to watch the dollar closely given its strong inverted correlation with gold, and now also increasingly how the market price the risk of a recession and with that the scale of the eventual drop in rates. We follow this through the size of the 2-10 year inversion of the US yield curve, currently at 107 basis points, and highest since 1981, and the one year spread between the September 2023 and September 2024 Fed funds futures. From a the current peak priced in around September the spread is looking for a +100 basis point drop the following twelve months. This is important given gold’s often powerful performance in the months that followed a Fed pause in rates. In the short-term with Powell signalling an incredible data dependency, the focus now turns to incoming US data with the first being Friday’s job report. Given the level of elevated rate hike expectation currently priced in, any weakness in incoming data may now trigger a stronger positive response than otherwise called for.   

Silver price prints mild gains as it reverses from four-month low. Short-term descending support line, oversold RSI adds strength to recovery. Doji candlestick, 100-DMA challenge XAG/USD buyers amid sluggish moves. Silver price (XAG/USD) picks up bids to rebound from the Year-To-Date (YTD) lows while printing mild gains around $20.00, up 0.18% intraday heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the bright metal bounces off a three-week-old descending support line, around $19.80 by the press time, amid an oversold RSI (14). The XAG/USD rebound, however, appears elusive unless the quote stays below the previous day’s top surrounding $20.22. That said, a clear upside break of $20.22 will defy the bearish candlestick formation and can propel the Silver price toward a late February swing low surrounding $20.45. It’s worth noting, though, that the XAG/USD run-up beyond $20.45 needs validation from the $21.00 round figure and the 100-SMA hurdle of $21.15 to convince the buyers. Meanwhile, pullback moves may retest the aforementioned support line, near $19.80. Following that, the $19.00 and November 2022 low surrounding $18.85 may entertain the Silver traders. In a case where the XAG/USD bears keep the reins past $18.85, the previous yearly low surrounding $17.75, marked in September 2022, will be in focus. Overall, the Silver bears appear running out of steam but the bulls have a long way to go before retaking control. Silver price: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected

Summary:  Copper seems to be forming a corrective pattern. Key support at 394.Gold still holding on above key level at 1,800. Could reverse from hereSilver sell-off seems to be exhausting . Correction possibleGold/Silver ratio still on the rise but testing resistance level. Short-term correction could be seen Copper 394 support seems to be too strong for Bears to break. Copper could be forming a Descending triangle like pattern that could be corrective i.e., if closing above falling trendline correction is likely to be over and new highs should be expected.But, it could also be trading in a falling channel (indicated by the falling blue trendline) but here is the support at 394 key.A close below 394 could fuel a sell-off down to strong support at around 370. A close below 394 will also break the medium-term rising channel (weekly chart) and push Copper back below the 55 weekly Moving average. If Copper breaks above the short-term falling trendline in what could be a Descending triangle uptrend is likely to resume to test January peak around 435 but quite possibly moving higher to around 457-463Weekly RSI is positive without divergence suggesting higher Copper prices. Source all charts and data: Saxo Group Gold still holding up above 1,800 fluctuating around the 0.618 retracement at 1,813. A break below 1,800 could fuel a sell-off down to support at around 1,768 possibly down to 1,732. Weekly chart shows why 1,800 is key. 1,800 could be key pivot level for Bullish/Bearish trend.Weekly RSI is positive without divergence suggesting Gold will resume uptrend but if 1,800 is taken out Gold could re-visit the 200 weekly Moving average which is rising and will provide some support. A close above 1,865 and the 55 daily Moving average is needed for Gold to resume uptrend.An uptrend that is likely to take Gold back to 1,950-2,000 area. 100 and 200 daily Moving averages provide some support and very short-term Gold could be range bound between 55 and 100 daily Moving Averages.Daily RSI in negative sentiment and with no divergence adds to the rather blurry/range bound picture. Silver After reaching its Inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder potential Silver has totally collapsed taking it back below the Neckline  (See weekly chart). Weekly RSI is currently testing 40 threshold and if closing below there is further downside for Silver.The collapse has formed a short-term falling wedge like pattern with RSI divergence indicating the sell-off is exhausting. A close above the upper falling trend line will confirm that and a close above 21.30 will reverse the trend with strong resistance at around 22.04. 100 and 55 daily Moving averages will add to the resistance around 22.If Silver closes below 19,90 the down trend is likely to be extended. But keep an eye on the RSI, if it cancels the divergence i.e., closes below 24.00 from the 27th February. If that scenario plays out there is down side potential to around 19. Gold/Silver XAUXAG ratio is testing October peak at around 90.69. There is no RSI divergence however, indicating higher levels. A move to 0.786 retracement at 91.80 is likely but there is no strong resistance – if Gold/Silver closes above 90.68 before 96.50. For Gold/Silver to reverse trend a close below the lower rising trend line and below the 86.60 is needed.Weekly chart RSI is positive indicating higher levels. 96-96.50 seems likely to be reached   RSI divergence explained: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend   Source: Technical analysis Copper Gold Silver | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Silver price fades bounce off four-month low after confirming bearish chart pattern earlier in Asia. Bearish MACD signals, sustained trading below the key EMAs keep XAG/USD sellers directed toward $18.80 theoretical target. Convergence of flag’s top line, 100-EMA appears short-term key upside hurdle to watch during corrective bounce. Silver (XAG/USD) remains on the back foot around the $20.00 round figure amid early Friday in Europe, fading the bounce off the intraday low. In doing so, the bright metal retreats from the lower line of a three-day-old bear flag, after confirming the downside suggesting chart formation earlier in the day. Adding strength to the bearish bias are the downbeat MACD signals and the XAG/USD’s sustained trading below the 100 and 200 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). That said, the recent lows marked around $19.90 and the latest October 2022 peak surrounding $19.75 may entertain the intraday sellers of the Silver during the theoretical target surrounding $18.80. Meanwhile, recovery moves could aim for the convergence of the 100-EMA and the stated flag’s upper line, close to $20.35. Also acting as an upside filter is the 200-EMA level surrounding $20.65. It should be noted that the monthly high near $21.30 holds the key to the Silver buyer’s conviction. To sum up, the Silver price remains bearish and can refresh the four-month low marked earlier in the day. Silver price: Hourly chart Trend: Further downside expected

With the appearance of deviations between price movements and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator, it gives a hint that in the near future silver has the potential to appreciate to the level of 22,964 but before that occurs, it seems that Silver also has the potential to be corrected first in order to gain upward momentum but the downward correction cannot fall beyond the 19,850 level because if this level is successfully exceeded, the potential increase previously described will become invalid and cancel by itself.   Relevance up to 01:00 2023-03-19 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/121209

Summary:  Still very early days, as we ponder the ongoing fallout from the turmoil in the US banking system, which has triggered a massive collapse in yields as the market brings forward the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. One significant danger is that we risk a credit crunch as banks are forced to scramble for funding and deposits. We highlight areas and indicators that are flashing red, the impact of the situation into currencies, precious metals, and equity sectors. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Careening toward a credit crunch? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Green lines- bearish RSI divergence Blue rectangle- support Yellow rectangles- major tops with same overbought RSI conditions Silver made a new 2023 higher high yesterday. The RSI is not following. The RSI is giving bearish RSI divergence signals. This is an important warning. The last time RSI of Silver price was this overbought and turned lower, we were forming a major top back in 2022 and price decline from $26.90 to $18. Silver is under pressure today showing rejection signs when price tried to break to new highs. Silver trend remains bullish as long as price is above the blue rectangle support area at $24.50. A break below this level will confirm a top is in and that trend is reversing to bearish. Bulls need to be very cautious. Read next: According to InstaForex's analyst, Euro against US dollar is vulnerable to a move towards 1.08| FXMAG.COM Relevance up to 15:00 2023-05-06 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322401

The recent retreat of gold prices to around $1,900 per ounce and silver prices to the area of $22 per ounce has sparked questions about the future direction of these precious metals. Market participants are eager to determine if gold and silver will find support at these levels, potentially leading to a rebound or a push towards historic highs. In seeking insights into this matter, we turn to the expertise of financial analyst Craig Erlam. According to Erlam, the expectations surrounding the actions of the Federal Reserve (Fed) play a significant role in shaping the outlook for both gold and silver prices. The impact of Fed decisions on yields and the value of the US dollar cannot be underestimated.   Erlam highlights the recent boost that gold and silver prices received following positive inflation data. This indicates that unless there is a substantial shift in the opposite direction, the current momentum could support prices in the short term. While economic data has been volatile, there is a growing sense of progress. The key lies in the policymakers' interpretation of this progress in the days ahead.       FXMAG.COM: The gold price has made a retreat to the vicinity of $1,900 per ounce. What's next for gold prices - will the King of Metals find support there from which to bounce? The silver price has made a retreat back to the area of $22 per ounce and what's next for the metal - does it have a chance to head toward historic highs?   Craig Erlam: In both cases, a lot comes down to what the Fed is expected to do, and what impact that has on yields and the dollar. As we've seen today, some very encouraging inflation data has given both gold and silver a big lift and unless we see a significant shift the other way, that could support prices in the near term. The economic data has been volatile but it does feel like we're finally seeing progress. We'll see from policymakers over the coming days whether they view recent progress to be substantial enough.

As the silver price retreats to the $22 per ounce range, the market is left wondering about the metal's future trajectory. Can silver regain its momentum and head towards historic highs? Seeking insights into this matter, we turn to the expertise of a Squared Financial analyst. The analyst acknowledges that reaching historic highs would entail a substantial increase of over 100% from the current price, emphasizing that such a feat is not impossible but would require time. However, in the immediate term, attention is drawn to the next significant resistance level at $24.50.     FXMAG.COM: The silver price has made a retreat back to the area of $22 per ounce. What's next for the metal - does it have a chance to head toward historic highs?   Squared Financial analyst: The silver price has made a retreat back to the area of $22 per ounce. What's next for the metal - does it have a chance to head toward historic highs? Historic highs mean over 100% increase from the current price, it's not impossible, but it will take time. In the meantime, the next solid resistance stands at $24.50. A break above that resistance would clear the way for further gains toward $26 and $26.80.