SENS

USDCHF tests support

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Tests Critical Support - 1

The US dollar edged lower as traders ditched its safe-haven appeal.

The pair met strong support at 0.9260 over the 30-day moving average. A break above the immediate resistance at 0.9340 prompted short-term sellers to cover their positions, opening the door for potential bullish continuation.

A break above 0.9370 could bring the greenback back to the 12-month high at 0.9470. 0.9260 is major support in case of hesitation and its breach could invalidate the current rebound.

XAUUSD struggles for support

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Tests Critical Support - 2

Gold struggles as risk appetite returns amid ceasefire talks. A fall below 1940 forced those hoping for a swift rebound to bail out.

On the daily chart, gold’s struggle to stay above the 30-day moving average suggests a lack of buying power. Sentiment grows cautious as the metal tentatively breaks the psychological level of 1900.

A drop below 1880 could make bullion vulnerable to a broader sell-off to 1850. An oversold RSI attracted some bargain h

GBPUSD Signalling A Bearish Correction

GBPUSD Signalling A Bearish Correction

John Benjamin John Benjamin 18.02.2021 07:28
Dollar gains afer retail sales surprises to the upsideEuro Weakens To A Seven-Day LowThe euro currency is accelerating the pace of declines comparing to the previous few days. On an intraday basis, the euro slipped to a seven session low before recovering slightly.The declines come as the EURUSD has now breached the rising long term trendline once again.Still, given the recent rebound after the trendline breach on 5th February, we could see a recovery once again.Therefore, to the downside, only a confirmed close below 5th February lows of 1.1951 will see further declines coming.Meanwhile, to the upside, a reversal could see the trendline coming in as resistance or the euro could possibly breakout above the trendline once again.The long term correction could see the 200-day moving average being tested which currently sites around the 1.1800 region.The British pound sterling is extending declines following a flat close on Tuesday. Still, price needs to close below Tuesday’s low of 1.3901 to confirm further downside.The next immediate downside target is seen near 1.3733 where price established strong resistance previously. This price level forms the ideal target to the downside with support likely to come in.But in the event that the GBPUSD loses this handle, we might get to see further declines. This will push the cable down to the 1.3500 level which is pending a retest anyways.To the upside, price action will need to post a reversal and possibly rise above the Tuesday highs of 1.3950 in order to maintain the uptrend.WTI Crude Oil Inches Higher But Likely To Close FlatWTI crude oil is showing signs of losing its bullish momentum. Price action is seen struggling to get a foothold above 60.00.This has led to price action being rejected over the past three trading sessions. For the moment, the overall bias remains firmly to the upside.But this could change if oil prices close below Tuesday’s low of 59.31. This will potentially confirm the downside for the short term. The long term trendline will act as support in case of such a move.To the upside, oil prices are nearing the 61.35 level which marks the highs from 8th January. Given the current momentum it is unlikely to see oil prices rising further unless there is a strong breakout above 61.35.Gold Prices Fall To A Two-Month LowThe precious metal resumes its declines with price action currently trading near the 1777.50 level.The decline marks a new two-month low in the commodity. A break down below this level could further accelerate declines.Still, considering that this support level has held up previously around early December last year, the precious metal could post a rebound.The daily Stochastics oscillator is also nearing the oversold levels. This could coincide with the support level holding up.However, if the precious metal loses this support, we could see prices potentially falling to the next key support level near 1650.
GBPUSD Advances Higher Again, But Can It Hold The Gains?

GBPUSD Advances Higher Again, But Can It Hold The Gains?

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.02.2021 08:00
USD weaker after a two-day gainEuro Attempts To Pare LossesThe euro currency is making a solid recovery, in a bid to recoup the losses from Wednesday.Price action is posting a reversal after it broke out from the long term daily trendline for the second time.However, the current pace of gains coincides with likely resistance from the trendline and the 50-day moving average.If the euro fails to close above Wednesday’s highs of 1.2107, then we might expect to see a continuation lower.For the moment, the support level near 1.2050 might help to stall further declines in the currency pair.But a daily close once again below this level will confirm further downside.The British pound sterling posted a strong reversal snapping a two-day losing streak. Price action was bullish as it broke past the previous highs near 1.3950.On an intraday basis, the GBPUSD rose to highs of 1.3985 before giving back some of the gains.Further upside is likely to continue as the GBPUSD approaches the key 1.4000 round number level.But given the current set up of the Stochastics oscillator, the bullish momentum might be losing steam.For the moment, the line in the sand is the Tuesday high of 1.3950. A daily close below this level could keep either prices moving sideways or a drop to Wednesday’s lows of 1.3829.Crude Oil Down Over One PercentOil prices are down over one percent on Thursday. The declines come after the commodity rose to intraday highs of 62.22 before giving back the gains.The overall bias in crude oil remains to the upside. Therefore, unless there is strong evidence of a correction, price action is likely to remain bullish.For the moment, the immediate trendline will be key to watch. A break down below this trendline could potentially accelerate short term declines.The main support level is near the 57.35 level. A close below 60.87 could potentially see the short term correction taking place.However, if oil prices manage to reverse the current gains, we could expect to see further upside in the near term.Gold Prices Steady Above 1764The precious metal is trading flat on Thursday following the sharp declines from the day before. Price action has not yet tested the 30 November lows of 1764.22.For the moment, we expect gold prices to consolidate between 1817.80 and 1764.22 levels. A breakout below 1764.22 could however extend declines down to the next key level near 1750.On a weekly basis, prices are consistently posting lower lows.However, the support level around the 1764 region is holding up. A weekly close below this level could open the way for further downside in the precious metal.
It‘s Only Tech That‘s Sold – Not S&P 500, Gold Or Silver

It‘s Only Tech That‘s Sold – Not S&P 500, Gold Or Silver

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.02.2021 15:52
S&P 500 is getting under modest pressure, and technology is to blame. Is the correction about to turn nasty from sideways? Still no signs of that, even as the investment grade corporate bonds are being sold of as hard as long-term Treasuries. Yet, these corporate instruments have only now broken below their late Oct lows – unlike long-dated Treasuries, whose price action resembles free fall.These government debt instruments are arguably the key asset class for every precious metals investor to watch. What used to be gentle decoupling signs over the latest weeks and months, got thoroughly tested the prior week. Yet, I stood firm in not calling gold down and out. The support zone at late Nov lows generated a rebound that was oh so likely to materialize.Silver naturally outperformed, both copper and oil had a strong day, and agrifoods are making new highs. The inflation dynamics described in Friday‘s article aptly called Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals, continues unabated, and the pressure keeps building inside the metals and commodities. Not even the dollar managed to benefit from the rising yields – the resumption of its bear market I called on Feb 08, is one of the 2021 themes. Money keeps flowing from the Treasuries market, and there is plenty sitting on the sidelines (corporate or private) to still deploy and power stocks and precious metals higher. Also those ready to withstand Bitcoin volatility (hello, the weekend Elon Musk tweet follow through), stand to benefit – cryptos are behaving like a store of value, a hedge against currency debasement. I wrote in my very first 2021 analysis that the Bitcoin correction wouldn‘t get far.Powell‘s testimony is about to bring volatility, but does it have the power to change underlying trends? Not really – while his latest high profile assessments brought about a downswing, stocks recovered in spite of the GameStop (contagion?) drama too. Should we see a replay of the above, new highs are coming – and they are, in both stocks and precious metals. We‘re in a commodities supercycle on top!Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe daily chart shows yesterday‘s turn of events clearly. The volume increased, indicating that the bulls will need to grapple with more downside.Both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume have curled noticeably, yet new highs new lows continues higher. That‘s a confirmation of the broad based nature of the stock market advance, further illustrated with the following chart.What if all the constituent shares in the S&P 500 had equal weight (i.e. there is no $NYFANG)? The above chart is the reflection – and it‘s challenging the latest highs. The rotation theme I‘m discussing so often, means in this case taking the baton from tech, and seeing it pass to value stocks. Such broad advance is a healthy characteristic of bull runs far from making a top.TechnologyHere is the culprit behind yesterday‘s decline – on increasing volume, technology (XLK ETF) has plunged. Yet it‘s the semiconductors (XSD ETF) that I am looking at for clues as to how reasonable has the decline been. And given how the tech is holding up, it‘s a bit accentuated.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is still behaving reasonably – the overlaid S&P 500 prices (black line) aren‘t accelerating to the downside. Thus far, everything keeps pointing to stocks behaving a bit more sensitively than throughout 2021 mostly, yet far from crashing or showing their readiness to. The real correction has to wait still – this is not the real deal.Gold, Silver and TreasuriesGold price action indeed proved not to be as bearish. Finally, we‘re seeing a clear refusal to move down even as Treasury yields continue to plunge. How long will this new dynamics stick, where would it take the yellow metal? I treat it as a valuable first swallow.The scissors between gold and silver keep widening, and the white metal again outperformed yesterday. That‘s exactly the dynamics of the new precious metals upleg that I‘m expecting.Both depicted miners to gold ratios show a clear pattern of post Nov resilience. GDX:GLD is not breaking to new lows, while $HUI:$GOLD rejected them. Bobbing around, searching for a local bottom before launching higher? That‘s my leading scenario.SummaryThe unfolding correction got a new twist with yesterday‘s downswing in stocks, and unless tech gets its act together, appears set to run further. Emerging markets fell harder than the Russell 2000 yesterday, which is another proof that the correction isn‘t yet over.Gold and silver price action remain encouraging, and the same can be said about oil and many other commodities. Once the stimulus bill is passed, the positive fundamentals that are going to turn even more so, given the Fed‘s accomodative policies. Will these work to stave off the rising Treasury yields as well? If so, then gold‘s fundamentals got a crucial boost, which would soon be seen in the technicals too. As I wrote yesterday, the metals didn‘t get a knock-out blow – the medium- and long-term outlook remains bright, and too many market players on the short side in the short run, means a high likelihood of a reversal – which is precisely what we saw.
GBPUSD Gets Rejected After Testing A Three-And-A-Half-Year High

GBPUSD Gets Rejected After Testing A Three-And-A-Half-Year High

John Benjamin John Benjamin 25.02.2021 08:26
USD fights back from a five-week lowEuro Trades Subdued But Supported By The Trend-Line The euro currency is trading rather mixed, a day after prices almost closed flat on Tuesday.Overall, the long-term trendline on the daily chart is supportive of prices. Therefore, we could see price action attempt to push higher.The 50-day moving average is also close and could come in as dynamic support. For the near term though, the EURUSD currency pair will need to close convincingly above the resistance area of 1.2177 and 1.2144.This resistance area is proving hard to break out in the near term. Therefore, there is a very good chance that the EURUSD might remain in a sideways range for now.To the downside, the 1.2050 level will hold the currency pair from posting further declines.The British pound sterling rose to a fresh three-year high at 1.4140. But prices were rejected intraday with the currency pair likely to close bearish or flat.Given that this pattern comes near the top end of the rally, it could potentially signal the start of a correction in the GBPUSD.The cable has not made any decent pullbacks so far. Therefore, a close below Tuesday’s low of 1.4055 could spell trouble.For the moment, prices might test the support area near 1.3950. This would mark a short-term correction in price action.The Stochastics has also moved out from the overbought levels but could signal a reversal once again.Crude Oil Rises Over 3%, Inching Closer To A Two-Year High Oil prices managed to shrug off the uncertainty of the past few days with price action once again surging.On an intraday basis, spot crude oil prices rose over 3% in what is likely to be a strong recovery. The gains come after oil prices closed bearish last week.However, at the time of writing, crude oil has managed to pare last week losses to rise higher.On the intraday charts, oil prices are yet to close fully above the previous highs of 62.97. But given the bullish momentum, we could expect to see further gains.The only downside scenario here is to see oil prices pulling back. This would mark a failure near the short-term trendline and could open the way to the downside.The support near 60.87 remains critical under such circumstances.Gold Prices Likely To Close Bearish For A Second Day The precious metal is failing to capitalize on the support level it established near the 1764 handle. Prices are falling for the second day, albeit the pace of declines is limited in comparison.To the upside, the reversal comes just a few points below the 1817.80 level. Given that this level was already established as resistance, we expect prices to hold between the two levels for the moment.On the weekly chart, we have the double bottom pattern that has formed around the 1764 handle.Therefore, a breakout above 1817.80 is needed to keep the bullish bias alive.A close above 1817.80 will open the way for gold prices to challenge the 1850 handle next.
BAC and Citi: which one is a better buy?

BAC and Citi: which one is a better buy?

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 07.04.2021 10:20
What’s going to happen? Bank of America and Citigroup will report their earnings in Q1’2021 on April 15 before the market open. What to do with it? If BAC and Citi outperform market expectations, it’s possible that the price of their respective stocks rises. Therefore, if you’re convinced that the results will be better than thought, you buy before the reporting date of April 15 in the expectation that the price will rise. Once it goes higher, you sell. Are we convinced that these banks will outperform? The fundamental factor that supports the rising profits and, consequently, stock value growth for both banks is the improving economic outlook. Primarily, in the US, and globally. One of the specific elements is the rising US Treasury yields which have a direct influence on the banks’ own interest rates and, hence, profits. However, this factor may not have reached its full momentum in Q1’2021 as it wasn’t yet clear during the first months of the year how the situation will unroll. That’s why this factor is more about the mid-term and long-term. However, that doesn’t mean that observers won’t include that into their reaction to the coming release of the earnings data on April 15. Bank of America, Citigroup, and other stocks are available in FBS Trader! Besides, you can trade stock through MetaTrader 5. What’s expected? The estimated EPS of BAC for Q1’2021 is $0.63; the one of Citi - $2.24. Take into account the differences now: Citi brought much stronger data in the last two quarters of 2020 against the forecasts than the Bank of American did against the market’s projections. In the meantime, Citi’s stock looks more vulnerable responsive to the downward pressures while BAC is making all-time highs. On the one hand, it makes it easier to plan for an optimistic scenario of Citi: it has its pre-virus high of $82 to be reached by bulls. The Bank of America, on the other hand, is already exploring uncharted upside territories. Therefore, we can only extrapolate that a better-than-thought earnings report may push its stock further above – into the area of $43 per share.
The Curious Staircase Rally in Stocks

The Curious Staircase Rally in Stocks

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.04.2021 15:58
Another day of tiny S&P 500 gains defying gravity, boosted by overnight price action. Well, liquidity overpowering junk corporate bonds opening with a bullish gap only to partially close it. With some credit market hints at deterioration present, the yen carry trade is getting a new lease on life today, and that‘s generally bullish for risk-on assets such as stocks – but not really for precious metals.With all the Fed support, the Powell bid is in, affecting „traditional“ sectoral dynamics of rotation. Value is probably about to feel the heat if you look at the very long lower knot in financials (XLF ETF) yesterday. Yes, this interest rate sensitive sector still rose in the face of long-dated Treasuries‘ gains. Needless to say, technology loved that, and its heavyweights ($NYFANG) keep driving the sector up. It looks to be a question of time before Tesla (TSLA) joins – Square (SQ) already did.The key question is the rotation‘s degree – now that the yields appear ready to retreat still a little more (the 10-year yield appears targeting the low 1.50% figure if not declining further), which is what technology anticipates even though utilities and consumer staples have been dragging their feet a little lately. But value stocks aren‘t selling off in the least (yet?). Is the TINA still strongly in effect when those stock market segments that could have been expected under more stringent monetary policy to be sold, aren‘t no more? Rising tide lifting really all boats – in stocks.Gold has retreated from yesterday‘s almost $1,760 highs accompanied by continued miners‘ outperformance. That‘s likely on account of the yen getting under pressure today, even though gold defended the Mar 08 bottom in spite of $USDJPY peaking in the closing days of Mar. The yellow metal is still sensitively reacting to the nominal yield moves, which are serving as a tailwind – both in the short run and when you zoom out and add copper into the picture (final chart of yesterday‘s analysis).One of the key things that I am still waiting for before declaring the gold bottom to be absolutely in, is its run above the key $1,760s or even better above $1,775 level. Let‘s though first watch for the miners not running out of steam.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 keeps hugging the upper border of Bollinger Bands, yet the willingness to trade at these extended levels has slightly returned yesterday. Hard to time any bear raid in these circumstances really.Credit MarketsVery tight correlation indeed as the high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio keeps tracking the stock market moves. Not even the HYG volume picked up yesterday, making it impossible to call for a turnaround as investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) keep rising in sympathy with TLT.Technology and ValueTech (XLK ETF) sprang to new highs on TLT erasing its Wednesday‘s losses while value again kept gained ground. Broad-based advance not pointing to much downside really unless $NYFANG turns in earnest.Gold and SilverGold turned strongly higher on the retreat in rising nominal yields (even as inflation expectations ticked lower yesterday) and the yen tailwind, but the volume behind the rally off the second imperfect bottom, is quite weak overall (concerning).Silver joined in yesterday‘s party, and both copper and platinum moved higher as well. Seeing the white metal not spiking yesterday is actually a positive sign of the precious metals upswing health, daily woes notwithstanding.Crude OilPrecious few directional signals in oil, yet higher prices are still favored by the oil index ($XOI). This consolidation is still relatively young, and not even a crash to roughly $52.50 would break the uptrend.SummaryS&P 500 keeps consolidating in a vulnerable and stretched position, yet offers no signs of an immediate retracement of a portion of prior gains. The current setup is unfavorable for short-term oriented (bullish leaning) traders who prefer higher signal clarity to the tight correlation we‘ve seen this week.After yesterday‘s fireworks, miners hold the key in today‘s session as the $1,760s are still a tough nut to crack – the precious metals‘ upswing health will be tested.
Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story

Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.04.2021 16:09
The S&P 500 red candle and then some – erased in a day, that‘s what you get with the Fed always having your back. The staircase climb certainly looks like continuing without any real breather. Whatever steep ascent you compare it to (Jun or early Sep 2020), this one is different in that it doesn‘t offer but token corrections. Not that it would be reasonable to expect a steep downswing given the tide of liquidity, but even sideways trading has become rarer than it used to be.With the VIX still below 17 and the put/call ratio in the middle of its slowly but surely less complacent range, the path of least resistance is higher – the signs are still aligned behind the upswing to go on: (…) Don‘t pin your hopes too high for a (sharp) correction though. Yes, [on Wednesday] stocks listened to the weakening corporate credit markets, and the daily retreat in long-dated Treasuries inspired some profit taking in tech. Quite some run there as yields stabilized, which has turned XLK from very stretched to the downside of its 50-day moving average, to the upside extreme. Tesla also followed suit but I doubt this is a true reversal of tech fortunes.Just at yesterday‘s moves – technology surged higher without too much help from the behemoths, and value stocks surged. Even financials ignored the sharp retreat in yields. Yes, that‘s the result of retails sales outdoing expectations and unemployment claims dropping sharply – the economic recovery is doing fine, manufacturing expands, and inflation doesn‘t yet bite. We‘re still in the reflationary stage where economic growth is higher than the rate of inflation or its expectations.Gold loved the TLT upswing and Powell‘s assurances about not selling bonds back into the market in rememberance of eating a humble pie after the Dec 2018 hissy fit in the stock market (isn‘t this the third mandate actually, the cynics might ask). I called for the sharp gains across the precious metals board sending my open position(s) even more into the black – both on Wednesday:(…) CPI inflation is hitting in the moment, and its pressure would get worse in the coming readings. Yet the market isn‘t alarmed now as evidenced by the inflation expectations not running hot – the Fed quite successfully sold the transitory story, it seems. Unless you look at lumber, steel or similar, of course. None of the commodities have really corrected, and the copper performance bodes well for the precious metals too.and Thursday:(…) Precious metals didn‘t swing higher immediately, but I expect them to take the commodities‘ cue next. When Powell says the Fed isn‘t thinking about selling bonds back into the market, and that he learned a lesson (hello, late 2018), real rates aren‘t probably rising much any time soon. It appears to me a question of time before inflation expectations squeeze the nominal yields some more, which is what gold would love.The stalwart performance in the miners goes on after a daily pause as gold gathers strength and silver outperformed yesterday. Silver miners and gold juniors are pulling ahead reliably as well, not just gold seniors.The run on $1,760 awaits.This is just the beginning, and as I had been repeatedly stating on Twitter:(…) The GDX closing convincingly above $35 would usher in great gold and silver moves.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookNew ATHs, again and this time on rising volume – the momentum still remains with the bulls even though the daily indicators are waning in strength, and as said earlier, $NYFANG causes a few short-term wrinkles.Credit MarketsThe high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio performance got better aligned with the S&P 500 one, now that nominal yields have retreated.Smallcaps and Emerging MarketsReflecting the turn in the Treasury markets, both the Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) and emerging markets (EEM ETF) clearly turned higher, confirming the direction the S&P 500 has been on practically non-stop since late Mar.Inflation ExpectationsInflation expectations are going down, that‘s the conventional wisdom – and nominal yields duly follow. But the RINF ETF isn‘t buying the TIPS message all that much, proving my yesterday‘s point:(...) Have the rising inflation expectations been banished? I‘m not convinced even though they aren‘t running hotter in the wake of PPI and CPI figures, which are bound to get worse next – if copper and oil are to be trusted (they are). Remember that this is the Fed‘s stated mission for now – to let inflation run to make up for prior periods of its lesser prominence. Gold in the LimelightGold is surging higher ahead of the nominal yields retreat, as the bond vigilantes failed yet again to show up. In the meantime, the inflationary pressures keep building up...Gold, Silver and MinersAs stated the day before, seniors (GDX ETF) would lead gold by breaking above their recent highs convincingly (solidly above $35 on rising volume and bullish candle shape), as the tide in the metals has turned. The unavoidable inflation data bringing down real rates would do the trick, which is exactly what happened. Silver scored strong gains as well, yet didn‘t visibly outperform the rest of the crowd. I look for the much awaited precious metals upleg to go on, and considerably increase open profits.SummaryThe daily S&P 500 downswing is history, and the relentless push higher (best to be compared with a rising tide), goes on.Gold and miners took a cue from the surging commodities, and nominal yields retreat. Patience has been rewarded, and a close above $1,775, is what I am looking for next as the gold bottom is in.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Risk Off Markets, Seriously?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.06.2021 15:55
S&P 500 hard at work erasing that early bear raid, but the bulls managed to stage a comeback. Yet, the risk off atmosphere is palpable in bonds, rallying as if no inflation were on the horizon. Or as if no taper was coming.Rest assured, it isn‘t:(…) The dollar doesn‘t look to be turning around – Thursday‘s upswing has been erased, but look for the greenback to reflexively rise when confronted with „taper now“ prospects. But is the Fed ready to welcome higher rates, and work towards them? I look for plenty of assurances that the support would be very gradually withdrawn so as not to affect the markets…Toothless compromises for public consumption fit into the picture greatly too...Look, the $6T boondoggle is dead on arrival, and won‘t turn out nearly so in the end and fast enough, which would take a little pressure off the still hot inflation trades. Commodities, followed by silver, and finally gold would feel (by extent of reaction) the short-term pinch, but remember that inflation fires on two engines - and the job market one is arriving:(…) Commodities exerting cost-push influence, and job market pressures, would be a one-two punch to the transitory inflation arguments. Deflationary shock simply isn‘t likely at the moment – the market will more probably find out the Fed isn‘t as serious about taper as it pretends to be – the ostrich pose. Or we might be cushioned into a higher inflation environment actually (thank you, Janet), being told it‘s for our own good.Gold is more vulnerable than silver to a scared dump, and the miners weakness shows it won‘t be smooth sailing for the yellow metal either. Copper consolidation doesn‘t add to the certainty, but the red metal‘s bullish bias is clearly there, both in the short run and medium-term as I had been stating months ago that you can‘t (attempt to) build a green economy without copper, silver, or nickel, among much else. It‘s massive and we‘re in a commodities superbull already – and the lumber arguments (not confirmed by timber weakness as I remarked) can be easily refuted by the $CRB index performance.Crude oil daily consolidation didn‘t reach far, again – and the oil index still doesn‘t support deeper downside that could be bought. Yes, the days of higher oil are still coming, for black gold prices can‘t wreck the real economy just yet. Last but not least, the U.S. is no longer a swing producer (wildcard for prices) as the rig count shows.Bitcoin is showing rare daily strength, testing the late May lows while both Ethereum and Cardano are way weaker. The Bitcoin upswing is thus likely to run out of steam.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 again defended gained ground, and Nasdaq 100 again rose a little – the 500-strong index rally is still likely to be driven by the tech sector in the very short term.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds‘black candle looks ominously – but only for the short term. Quality debt instruments rising is a sign of rush to safety and uncertainty ahead of tomorrow‘s CPI. It‘s though still a bullish sign that HYG rose.Technology and ValueTechnology including $NYFANG had a relatively good day, but the black candle is a sign of unease in stocks, underlined by value.Gold, Silver and MinersGold held up quite well once again, but the miners repeated non-confirmation is a loud warning, in spite of the nominal yields retreat. Rebalancing in safety trades ahead.Silver isn‘t flashing warning signs of outperformance in any way, and it‘s the copper chart indecision that‘s soundly affecting the red metal‘s ratio to the 10-year Treasury yield. So far so good.Crude OilCrude oil bulls had to defend against meek premarket selling yesterday, and the volume still supports them.SummaryS&P 500 tremors will likely be resolved to the upside when the CPI and other dust settles, and I am not looking for a Nasdaq disappointment either.Gold and silver are likely to repel the onslaught miners‘ weakness is signalling, with the white metal getting under pressure more than the yellow one – at a time when GDX and HUI would attempt to throw off the PMs bulls.Crude oil chart remains bullish, and dips are likely to be bought. Getting stretched but no real breather on the horizon just yet (apart from CPI).Bitcoin upswing better be viewed with a healthy dose of suspicion while Ethereum keeps sideways consolidating.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Gold: Bearish Development Just Around the Corner?

Gold: Bearish Development Just Around the Corner?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.06.2021 15:19
While we might see a small uptick in gold prices soon, it’s not likely to last long. We should be prepared to open our parachutes any time now.The decline in gold continues, and while we might see a small pop-up higher here, it’s unlikely to last. And why could gold move slightly higher and correct the recent declines?Because it has just reached the rising support line based on its previous important lows. The possible rebound could take place based on this single development. However, just because it might happen doesn’t make it very likely, and it doesn’t mean that taking any action now is justified. The medium-term forecast for gold remains bearish.The situation in the USD Index is one of the reasons for this outlook:We recently saw a breather that was similar in terms of time and price to the previous patterns which happened after quick short-term rallies. And now, the USDX is moving higher once again. As soon as it exceeds the previous June highs, it’s likely to rally more substantially, perhaps stopping temporarily at the late-March high or rallying even higher, to 95 or so.Either way, gold is likely to get the bearish push off the cliff that will likely take it below the above-mentioned rising red line. Gold’s next support is at the previous 2021 lows – close to $1,670.Besides, while gold bounced off the rising red line visible on the first chart, the yellow metal actually broke visibly below a much more important support line.In fact, that was the first time when gold managed to break below this line and not rally back up. This time is already different.Moreover, let’s keep in mind that gold stocks’ relative performance not only hasn’t stopped indicating the bearish outlook recently but also provided a screaming sell sign once again on Monday.Namely, the GDX ETF declined and closed below its previous monthly lows as well as below the late-April lows. This breakdown took place without gold’s help, which makes it particularly bearish.Please note that the volume that accompanied this week’s declines is relatively low, and the declines tend to end on huge volume. Consequently, the low-volume readings imply that we’re not at the bottom yet. Also, silver hasn’t broken visibly lower, and it didn’t “catch up” with the miners, which could indicate that the bottom is in. So, it likely isn’t.The above-mentioned breakdown was even more profound in the case of the GDXJ – a proxy for junior mining stocks .The size of the recent “upswing” was comparable to the mid-November 2020 one, so it confirms the analogy to this period that I mentioned while discussing the gold’s chart yesterday .The next short-term downside target is at about $42 – a bit below the previous lows, as that’s where the 50% Fibonacci retracement line coincides with the previous highs and lows (and also with the 2019 highs that are not visible on the above chart).The 4-hour candlestick chart shows that junior miners moved slightly higher at the beginning of yesterday’s session only to decline in its final hours. So, it’s not that we’re not seeing any corrections – we do have them, but they are so tiny that they are barely noticeable from the daily perspective.All in all, it seems that the outlook for the precious metals market – especially for the junior gold miners – is very bearish for the following weeks and months, and it seems that the profits on our current short position will grow much more quite soon.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Bitcoin, reinvent yourself

Bitcoin, reinvent yourself

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 20.07.2021 11:12
The weekly snapshot taking isn’t picked at random.Each trade should have at least three timeframe components.A trade setup time frame where the edges get stacked, and risk/reward is determined, with targets and a stop level.A time frame higher than the setup timeframe, which needs to confirm trading direction. If you have a long entry set up on a daily chart, but the weekly chart has a downtrend of price, this setup is invalid and should therefore not be executed.And an entry time frame is the next lower time frame below the setup time frame, allowing for more precise entry timing and stacking odds to minimize risk.For example, suppose you are a position trader with a typical holding period of 2-4 weeks. In that case, you are looking for a trend on the weekly chart. Find a setup on a daily chart in the direction of that trend. And fine-tune the entry on the sixty-minute timeframe.This makes the weekly chart a part of even the largest time frame market participants and day-traders should not ignore its trend, hence our choice for weekly publications.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Monthly time frame for direction:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 20th, 2021.One of the best ways to reinvent yourself, meaning to get in a proper neutral state, is finding a relatively quiet trading spot within the 24/7 Bitcoin trading environment. Or even better, turn your real-time data feed off, so that the charts can not stimulate you with movement. Start with the largest time frame from your triple time frame set up and get a sense of the long-term direction (sideways, up, steep up, down, steep down) and only consider setups in the time frame below (the setup time frame) that follow this direction.In this week’s chart book, we take as an example the monthly time frame for a long-term Bitcoin position. Bitcoin, reinvent yourself.We can see on the monthly chart above a clear long-term bullish note on Bitcoin. In addition, we see good support based on our overlaying two Fibonacci retracements. In retracement A from the absolute lows of the latest strong up-leg from March last year, we get good price support. From the second measurement of the pure breakout leg through US$20,000, we have already had a bounce with a doji indecision bar of last month. Consequently, we are looking for long setups only on the next lower time frame, the weekly chart.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Weekly time frame for setups:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 20th, 2021.Having identified the monthly time frame to a bullish trend on Bitcoin, we wouldn’t consider even a beautiful short setup since we insist on all edges stacking in our favor. This already cuts our entry horizon of possibilities in half.The weekly chart above shows an entry possibility on low risk near prices on the bottom of a sideways range right now (yellow box). This ten-week trading range between US$30,000 and US$39,000 has substantial fractal volume support, as shown in the histogram on the right side of the chart. We also find previous price support (see a green horizontal line). In addition, prices trade at the mean, also a typical reversal and support spot (yellow directional line). BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Daily time frame for execution:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 20th, 2021.The weekly chart time frame planning sets the tone for our daily calls. A daily review for what execution setups we would be looking for and, most of all, filtering out any trades we are NOT interested in.  See our daily call methodology. We post these daily calls for various asset classes daily in our free Telegram channel.By focusing on what not to do, we avoid the blue car syndrome and use a tool to reinvent ourselves.In the daily chart above, you can see a possible turning point in the making. We would not be surprised if prices penetrate the range violently to quickly reverse, creating a wick, as it has in the past (white circles).No matter what methodology you use in fine-tuning your entries and reducing risk, right now is the time to pay attention.Bitcoin, reinvent yourself:The neutral mindset isn’t the only aspect of trading that calls for a daily reinvention. The mind that observes is a different one than the mind that executes trades. The observer evaluates, compares, and debates, necessary to find edges and build systems. The executioner must follow a clear set of rules blindly and can’t afford debate. Last-minute evaluation creates stress and an unwanted reach for intuition-an aspect not valuable for a counter-intuitive environment.Consequently, this means a scheduled daily routine where one reinvents oneself repeatedly to be a valuable tool in market participation or otherwise; the vast sea of choices within the market swallows you and exploits the lack of discipline.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 20th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Partying On Meets USD Upswing

Partying On Meets USD Upswing

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.09.2021 16:28
S&P 500 didn‘t get hammered on the NFPs miss – stocks did reasonably well, saved by the daily rush into tech. Volatility didn‘t spike throughout the week at all, and credit markets maintain their risk-on posture. Still, the real economy deceleration made itself heard, pushing back Fed taper speculations even further from September. Jerome Powell wanted to see more jobs data, and would want even more so now. I wouldn‘t be really surprised if no taper was announced in November.Markets are thus far unconcerned about a policy mistake in letting inflation get entrenched even more – Treasury yields moved up, but don‘t expect to see them gallop just yet. Slow and steady, orderly grind higher is the most likely trajectory ahead, and even that won‘t propel the dollar higher, or keep it really afloat. Greenback‘s support is at 91.70, and I‘m looking for it to give in over the nearest weeks, which carries tremendous implications for commodity and precious metals trades. And for risk assets in general.Precious metals thus far remain tame, and should continue chugging along just fine. Commodities such as copper and oil won‘t be derailed, but might panic temporarily in case of really bad incoming data. Copper‘s continued underperformance of the commodity index highlights the growth woes of the day, and even if the red metal might look to some as ready to roll over, the positive stockpile situation should cushion potential downside. In short, I‘m not looking for a meaningful disturbance to the commodities bull, as the inventory replenishment cycle has far from run its course, and inflation is bound to get hotter this year still.As written on Friday:(…) In short, forget about tapering into a weakening economy that doesn‘t see labor participation or hours worked rising. The Fed won‘t take that gamble soon, and we know what that means for real assets (and stocks too as inflation and yields aren‘t yet breaking the bull) – fresh money finding its way into financial markets, lifting prices.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookFriday‘s result could have been worse, way worse – and shows stocks still remain focused on money printing more than anything else.Credit MarketsCredit markets posture remains risk-on, and the inflation worries are reflected in the quality instruments. High yield corporate bonds remain in an uptrend, supportive of risk taking.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals benefited strongly on the assumption of Fed erring on the side of tardiness in announcing taper – inflation expectations are remaining tame thus far. Gold and silver ascent is though getting increasingly more confirmed by the miners turning higher too.Crude OilCrude oil ran into a setback, but didn‘t roll over decisively – some more sideways trading before higher prices emerge, is likely. Look to the dollar for direction.CopperCRB Index continues its strong recovery, and copper is taking a brief rest at the 50-day moving average. While weakening real economy would hurt it, the red metal‘s supply/demand situation would cushion temporarily lower prices. Technically, the bulls better step in fast and take prices solidly above 4.40 in order to steer clear of the danger zone.Bitcoin and EthereumFollowing long weekend gains, cryptos are under pressure today – it looks like a daily setback and not a reversal. Golden cross is approaching.SummaryNFPs disappointment isn‘t likely to derail the risk-on trades, and would actually work in pushing the taper timing further into the future, which would likely result in further stock market and other asset gains. The alternative to taper earlier would force a correction, for which I am afraid there‘s no appetite.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Retreating Bears and Dollar Struggles

Retreating Bears and Dollar Struggles

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.09.2021 16:15
S&P 500 decline leaves something to be desired – conviction of the bears. Credit markets and the dollar have sent not so subtle signs that we‘re in the latter innings of this week‘s corrective move, and a snapback attempt in stocks is likely. That‘s even more so true in commodities – these didn‘t wait (with the exception of copper). Stocks though remain wavering, without a clear tech or value leader. But did you notice the degree of bearishness that such a measly downswing elicited? Given where the Fed and Treasury are in monetary and spending plans, nothing has changed – the debt ceiling drama is still out of the markets‘ focus alongside pretty much everything else including Evergrande and similar fears. Who could have forgotten the late Jan GameStop, or then Archegos? And the markets keep rising on the staircase liquidity wave interrupted by a fresh stimulus here and there:That‘s why I‘m not concerned that the day before yesterday:(…) Precious metals, copper and oil bore the brunt of souring sentiment, with cryptocurrencies joining in the slide later through the day. But have the material facts changed, or all we got was a whiff of risk-off? September is likely to be volatile, it seasonally is, and August had been a surprisingly calm month. You know what they say about periods of lower volatility giving way to those of higher readings… Time to buckle up.Time to buckle up indeed, as a brief ambush of the generally rising markets, is likely to come in autumn. Either the Fed tapers before Dec, forcing it effectively to happen now, or its inaction would defer it to 2022 (the downswing catalyst would then be inflation).Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe S&P 500 downswing was stopped in its tracks by the intraday reversal – the bulls are likely to attempt to take prices higher still.Credit MarketsCredit market slide had been arrested, and the uptick across the board is a positive sign. The bulls have something to build on.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are stable in the very short run, and can surprise on the upside – the dual spike in the dollar and yields hasn‘t helped, but these headwinds won‘t last.Crude OilCrude oil had a positive day in spite of the energy sector weakness – its volatile trading is likely to continue as the 50-day moving average presents an obstacle still.CopperCopper declined in spite of the rising CRB Index – its relative weakness continues even if the red metal is likely to score gains today, making up for yesterday‘s excessive weakness.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum still looks to have found a temporary floor, and the selling pressure appears abating. The bulls‘ chance is approaching.SummaryRisk-off appears getting long in the tooth as those who have gotten used to two day corrections could say. Time for a pause in selling is at hand, but the volatile September is far from over. In the big picture, the stock market, PMs and commodity bull runs remain intact, and their upcoming trajectory will be dictated by the dollar and yields.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Silver is your best strategy

Silver is your best strategy

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 12.09.2021 09:11
There are two software development strategies. “Waterfall,” which produces a product sequential, sending stages of development through various departments until it is finished. And “Agile strategy,” which, on the other hand, is all focused on “time to market.” It identified that product placement is doomed to fail if the rate of change outside a company is faster than the rate of change inside the company. It focuses on a parallel effort of teams to produce an MVP (minimum viable product). Investing isn’t much different. If you follow sequentially through news and buy an investment when the media finally shouts it off the rooftop, you most likely are the one holding the bag and are beyond late to low-risk entry timing. Right now, Silver is your best strategy. A contrarian and more “agile strategy” is not following a stream of data but individually make an overall independent assessment of a sum of data and purchase a product like physical silver when it is out of favor, hence cheap.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Accuracy through principles and experience:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of September 11th, 2021.A subset of agile software development is “Scrum”. In “Scrum” meetings, various departments meet to reach a common goal quickly. We have emulated this outcome-oriented parallel effort in our daily call. It gets posted daily for free in our free telegram channel. It is a 24-hour outlook that comprises market analysis in a principle-based fashion, from variables like risk, market psychology, statistical edges, inter-market relationships, time of the week, seasonal relations, relative strength/weakness, and money management, to name a few. We have, throughout the decades, stacked odds in a way for these daily forecasts to be highly accurate.The daily chart above shows how bears dominated this week’s price action. It doesn’t show that traders who followed our daily calls avoided many losing trades. Even though there might have been areas of interest and seemingly valuable entry points, inter-market relationships and choppy trading made it sensible to keep market exposure to a minimum regarding new entries. It is especially true for Friday’s silver price movement. We warned to stay sidelined, expecting that the bounce wouldn’t hold up based on the time of the week. Our indications showed there would rather be a likelihood of further price declines in the upcoming week.It is fool’s gold trading from a support/ resistance perspective only, assuming certain price levels will work as borders. While this might be true for a brief period, it is not proof of a turning point. Even worse, getting stopped out in an overall environment that is not conducive for low-risk entries only to see the turning point work out eventually is damaging to a trader’s psyche. Our focus is magnified on a low-risk approach.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, purchase physical silver now for cheap:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of September 11th, 2021.While in the microanalysis, bears still are at even keel with the bulls, a monthly chart analysis shows that low prices like right now for physical silver acquisitions favor the long-term investor who aims to hedge bets for wealth preservation purposes. We would even go as far as speculating that the micro-environment price behavior is purposefully trying to discourage and distract the longer-term speculators for various reasons. Again, this shows that a contrarian investment approach might be the most profitable and low-risk one. Gathering fundamental data outside the trading noise and distraction commentary of media is the most prudent way to the long-term success of your objectives.With another look at the chart above, we can see that “the mean” (blue line) plays a significant role in silver’s price support. Moreover, we have additional support (green rectangle) from a transactional volume analysis. On the commodity channel index oscillator, we can also make out a possible pattern repeat (orange circles)  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Already within entry zone:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of September 11th, 2021.Trading a monthly chart for a multi-year long-term hold position, we fine-tune our entries on the lower weekly chart. We can make out on the weekly chart the significant rejection of the US$22.00 price level (long yellow wick to the downside, forming a “hammer” candlestick formation five weeks ago). With many other edges examined, we see a high likelihood for prices to stabilize above that zone. Consequently, we consider the entire yellow square as a range to add to our physical silver holdings. With a triple-digit target projection, an ultra-precise entry timing for a physical silver position is less important. Realizing that owning physical silver in this political and economic climate is an essential risk hedge is much more important.Silver is your best strategy:The principle of today’s topic between sequential actions and parallel efforts becomes even more illuminated in the learning curve to market participation itself. It is speculated that most market players give up shortly before a breakthrough after years of effort. They are either running out of funds or find themselves psychologically drained. It is based on our tendency as humans to focus on a complex problem by trying to master one aspect after another of the challenge sequentially. Technical analysis typically has the biggest allure, and successively market entries come first.Consequently, after years of mastering low-risk entry points, finding out that exits are much more important can be frustrating, to say the least. It is imperative to focus on all aspects of system development at the same time. Psychology, money management, technical analysis, execution skills, and so forth need to have an equal place within one’s development curve. Otherwise, the rate of change of the market itself will catch up with your efforts. You will not get a foot in the door.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author´s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|September 11th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Russell 2000, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Punch Bowl Removal

Punch Bowl Removal

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.10.2021 15:49
S&P 500 intraday upswing fizzled out in spite of credit markets remaining mildly conducive. But tech just couldn‘t and couldn‘t rise, and value remained weak throughout as well. VIX is having trouble declining some more as seen through the last three days‘ lower knots. In short, the TLT upswing standing out in bonds, reveals that risk-off hasn‘t thrown in the towel – fresh S&P 500 downswing looks to be a question of time only. Could it be thanks to a hot CPI print, or will a lower inflation reading bring instead joy that Fed‘s Nov taper might not be coming after all? That‘s the key calculation moving the markets these weeks. Apart from the debt ceiling and $3.5T infrastructe bill, that is.Precious metals look to have an answer, and the pressure to go higher without hesitation, is building up. As said yesterday:(…) All that‘s necessary is a spark, and tomorrow‘s CPI is likely to deliver that. I‘m looking for a reasonably hot number that wouldn‘t show the massaged figure‘s further deceleration. Talking numbers powerful enough to make the Fed move – and more importantly to make the markets force the Fed to move – I asked [Monday] whether there are:(…) creeping worries about Fed policy mistake in letting inflation become an even bigger problem than it is already? Not that it‘s not set to become one – even the lazy and slow PCE deflator has scored a jump not seen in decades.Crude oil is consolidating, and so are cryptos – both in line with my yesterday‘s expectations. What bears significance, is the copper drive lining up with other base metals – the momentum appears returning, and that also bodes well for precious metals.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 weakened yesterday, thanks to heavier selling before the close. More (intraday) chop appears likely before the bears step in again – and they better did so relatively soon so that the daily indicators don‘t carve out bullish divergencies.Credit MarketsHYG turned around, but visibly lagged behind quality debt instruments, leaving a mixed impression. The high volume spells reversal, but there isn‘t enough power to force it higher.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are showing very encouraging signs of life, and follow through higher across the board looks a question of time. Just as I wrote yesterday - the fireworks can be expected Wednesday.Crude OilCrude oil consolidation is here, and the bears can make a move – but don‘t look for miracles and way too low prices any time soon.CopperCopper endured a daily consolidation, and the red metal‘s short-term fate would tell a lot about the unfolding precious metals upswing. The bulls who looked for one more trip to the low 4.20s, can keep a close eye on when the momentum stalls.Bitcoin and EthereumThe expected crypto pause is here, but the bull run continues!SummaryStock market rebound will likely run out of steam, and the elevated CPI reading would add to the bulls‘ woes. No upswing is sticking, credit markets aren‘t raging risk-on, and yields keep forcing Fed‘s hand by preempting the taper announcement – with tech increasingly suffering. Precious metals love the inflation prospects and real rates going more negative. Real assets stand to benefit greatly, and so do cryptos.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
DXCM Stock: Is DexCom investor sentiment turning bearish?

DXCM Stock: Is DexCom investor sentiment turning bearish?

Wall Street Harold Wall Street Harold 12.02.2021 09:02
Despite the DexCom (DXCM) Nick Jonas Super Bowl ad, investors seem to be turning bearish. It is very important to watch insiders of the company you’re invested in and it seems insider faith is dwindling. According to a recent press release, the company stated that it has partnered with Nick Jonas to bring more awareness to DexCom’s continuous glucose monitoring system for diabetes. The ad is expected to run Sunday, February 7th. Despite this partnership, DexCom insiders are selling their stake. This could be a sign that helps investors acknowledge that insider faith is dwindling. There are many reasons as to why these insiders are selling stock, however the most common reasons are that they could believe that the company is heading in the wrong direction. They do this in order to sell before the stock price takes notice which may lead other investors to sell their positions. It’s fair to note that these insiders has been selling all of their shares with no buying positions since February 2020. Another company which may take major market share Another soon to be major player in the diabetes device market is Senseonics (SENS), this company has a new innovative approach. Instead of creating a device that pokes into the skin and limits movement, they created an implantable sensor that goes under the skin and a transmitter which sits atop above the skin. According to recent reviews, the implant procedure is painless and takes less than 10 minutes. In a few years I predict that this company will take major market share from its competitors like DexCom therefore reaching a price target of $20+ after the FDA approves the 180-day CGM device.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD In Pullback Mode

Intraday Market Analysis – USD In Pullback Mode

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.11.2021 09:15
USDCHF seeks support The US dollar stalled after weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected. The pair’s attempt above the daily resistance at 0.9310 suggests that the bulls may have gained the upper hand. Intraday buyers’ profit-taking led by the RSI’s overbought situation has caused a limited pullback. Buyers may see dips as an opportunity to get in at a discount. Bids could be around the resistance-turned-support at 0.9235. 0.9330 is a fresh resistance. And its breach may trigger an extended rally towards last April’s peak at 0.9450. NZDUSD bounces off demand area The New Zealand dollar inches higher as traders are positioning for an RBNZ rate hike next week. From the daily chart’s perspective, the pair has bounced off the demand zone near the psychological level of 0.7000. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the bearish momentum, a sign that sentiment could be turning around. An oversold RSI has attracted buying interest. A rally above 0.7060 would prompt sellers to cover, paving the way for a recovery towards 0.7175. A break below 0.6980 may drive the kiwi to 0.6900. US30 struggles to rally back The Dow Jones is under pressure as investors fear that inflation could choke off economic recovery. The index has been struggling to reclaim the landmark 36000, which coincides with the 20-day moving average. The faded rebound suggests exhaustion after a month-long breakneck rally. The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area has attracted buying interest. Though buyers may stay cautious unless the first resistance at 36180 is lifted. On the downside, the previous peak at 35500 has turned into the next support.
We Might Say Next FED Moves Are Not Obvious As Some Factors Differentiate Circumstances

Silver, shrugging off attacks

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 20.11.2021 13:32
Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, strong along gold: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart illustrates price behavior over the last 15 months. Silver prices are trading near the center of the sideways range. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, rumors shrugged off: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart of gold isn’t much different from where prices stand. In short, there is no evidence that gold has lost its luster. Otherwise, we would see silver trading in a relationship much lower. Rumors are just that – rumors! Silver is shrugging them off. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, room to go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of November 20th, 2021. A historical review with a quarterly chart over the last eighteen years reveals that silver prices can sustain extreme extensions from the mean (yellow line) for extended periods. Using the extreme of the second quarter in 2011 as a projective measurement (orange vertical line) for an upcoming target would provide for a price target more than 10% above all-time highs at US$56. In addition, the chart shows that we find ourselves in a strong quarter so far, which is in alignment with cyclical probabilities. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, prepping the play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. Trade setup Let us return to the weekly time frame for a possible low-risk entry scenario with this target in mind.We find a supply zone based on fractal transactional volume analysis near the price of US$24.11 and US$22.65. Both attractive entry zones for excellent risk/reward-ratio plays.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver, shrugging off attacks: It will not be rumors, doubts, and speculations that will be the catalyst for silvers’ success or failure. It isn’t a question of “if,” but just a question of “when” we will see the next massive price advance in this precious metal. The odds are stacked too much in favor of a continued price movement up that the long-term investor should let doubts allow for diverging from a splendid opportunity to partake in wealth preservation and a very profitable way to participate in a chance rarely presented this prominent. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 20th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold bullish, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
FX Update: USD remains firm, RBNZ taps brakes on expectations

FX Update: USD remains firm, RBNZ taps brakes on expectations

John Hardy John Hardy 24.11.2021 13:44
Summary:  The US dollar remains firm after the news of Fed Chair Powell getting the nod for a second term on Monday, but a more aggressive extension of its recent strength is avoided as US yield rises were tempered yesterday. Elsewhere, a less hawkish than expected RBNZ saw the kiwi sharply weaker as the market removed a chunky bit of forward rate hike expectation on the latest guidance. FX Trading focus: USD follows US yields higher in the wake of Powell getting nod for 2nd term The US dollar strengthening in the wake of President Biden’s announcement that he would tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair extended modestly yesterday and into this morning, somewhat tempered by a strong US 7-year treasury auction taking the steam out rises in yields yesterday – with the 7-year benchmark actually notching new highs for the cycle before retreating in the wake of the auction. The more widely tracked 10-year US treasury yield benchmark is still rangebound below the October pivot high of 1.7% and the post-pandemic outbreak high of 1.75%  from the end of March. This has kept USDJPY from extending notably above the sticky 115.00 area of the moment. Elsewhere, the euro remains relatively weak despite ECB Vice President de Guindos out speaking and hinting some concern on inflation rises: “the ECB is continuously pointingout that the inflation rebound is of a transitory nature....However, we have also seen how in recent months these supply factors are becoming more structural, more permanent.” But just this morning we also have the ECB’s Holzmann out saying that inflation is likely to slow from next year. Later today we will get the expected German government coalition deal (SPD’s Scholz as Chancellor with Green’s Baerbock reportedly set for the foreign minister post and importantly, the liberal LDP’s Lindner set to lead the finance ministry), with a press conference set for 3 p.m. EURJPY and EURUSD are heavy this morning and note that  the 128.00 level in EURJPY is a well-defined range low, while EURUSD doesn’t have notable  support until well below 1.1200 and arguably not until psychological levels like 1.10. With covid spiking and a galloping energy crisis, I don’t envy the new German leadership. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand waxed a bit more cautious than was expected by the market, and not only by raising the rates 25 basis points rather than the 50 basis points that a minority were expecting to see. In the central bank’s new statement, the bank strikes a more cautious tone: yes, clearly further rate hikes are set for coming meetings, but the bank is clearly in a wait and see mode, given the tightening of financial conditions already in the bag and that which the market has already priced in: “the Committee expressed uncertainty about the resilience of consumer spending and business investment....(and) also noted that increases in interest rates to householdsandbusinesses had already tightened monetary conditions. High levels of household debt, and a large share of fixed-rate mortgages re-pricing in coming months, could increase the sensitivity of consumer spending to these interest rate increases.” Later today, we have a stack of US data releases crammed into today because of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow (and for most, Friday as well). The most important of these is the October PCE Infation data print. Not expecting much from the FOMC minutes later as all eyes are on whether we are set for an acceleration of the QE taper at the December FOMC meeting, with some arguing that Powell and company have more room to move and administer a bit more hawkish message, if they so desire, as the nomination news is out of the way and this reduces hyper-sensitivity to bringing any message that could risk cratering market sentiment. Chart: AUDNZDThe 2-year yield spread between Australia and New Zealand has risen sharply in recent days and especially overnight, where the more cautious than expected tones from the RBNZ inspired a 14 basis point drop in 2-year NZ yields. The price action in AUDNZD was sympathetic with the rally back toward local resistance near 1.0450, though the rally needs to find legs for a move up to 1.0600 at least to indicate we may have put a structural low in with a double bottom here. A brighter relative outlook for  Australia could be in the cards if China is set to stimulate and raise steel output, the anticipation of which has already sharply lifted iron ore prices this week, a key indicator for the Aussie. No notable expectations for the Riksbank tomorrow – as the central bank is expected to wind down its balance sheet expansion next year, while the policy forecast is thought to be in play (perhaps a late 2024 lift-off built into expectations, though the market is ahead of that as 2-year Swedish swap rates have risen close to 30 basis in recent weeks. This is the area where the Riksbank can surprise in either direction relative to expectations). The EURSEK rally has now reversed the entirety of the prior sell-off leg and double underlines the very weak sentiment on Europe, which remains “non-existential” in nature, i.e., so far the market is keeping this about policy divergence and dark clouds over the economic outlook, not about the longer term viability of the EMU, etc…, which in the past 2010-12 crisis inspired SEK upside as a safe haven. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthA bit of a relative pick-up in petro-currencies in the wake of yesterday’s oil rally, as the market bought the fact of US President Biden announcing a release of barrels from strategic reserves. Elsewhere, the NZD is losing relative altitude and the USD and especially CNH reign supreme. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Here, note AUDNZD flipping back to positive - a move that would be “confirmed” by a close solidly above 1.0450. Also note NOKSEK trying to flip positive on the latest oil rally, although beware the Riksbank meeting up tomorrow there. .Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1330 – US Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims 1330 – US Oct. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1330 – US Q3 GDP Revision 1330 – US Oct. Durable Goods Orders 1430 – UK BoE’s Tenreyro to speak 1500 – US Oct. PCE Inflation 1500 – US Final University of Michigan Sentiment Survey 1500 – US Oct. New Home Sales 1900 – US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Santa preparing to take back the reins of the market! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Silver on Christmas gift list

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 26.11.2021 11:06
Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, favorable timing: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. Timing for a physical acquisition is in alignment as well. The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22. The white line assumes a potential price projection for 2022. Even if we are wrong with our assessment, a gift of silver for a long-term horizon is highly likely to appreciate from momentary levels to a much higher price target. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver on Christmas gift list: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The value of a gift like this doesn’t stop there. Numismatics provides for children and teenagers a way to study history. Beautiful coins and bars inspire us to hold on to value for future times and encourage saving. The weekly silver chart shows in a bit more detail possible price expansion from a time perspective. This would be our most conservative picture of the future. The green bordered box is an entry zone for a potential reversal to the upside. With a high likelihood of an interest rate change by the Federal Reserve Bank in the second quarter of 2022, the inner yellow curve supersedes in probability for the expected time frame for a price increase. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, physical only, spot to risky: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of November 26th, 2021. If you look at the daily chart above, you will find that we have seen a swift downward move in the past. Under our beauty principle, there is a good likelihood that this might occur again. If so, reaction times are much longer with a physical purchase than with spot price trading. Meaning there is no need to precision trade (precision purchase) physical silver, but be not spooked if a swift, extended decline might happen. Consequently, we are pointing this purchase out for physical acquisition only but do not advise taking a spot price position based on the risk.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver on Christmas gift list: In this bargain hunting season around Black Friday, we find it is especially sensible to refocus and ask different questions. The human psyche is prone to give in to instant gratification, especially after the hard time the last two years provided. But with this much at stake for 2022, possibly being a year that sets a mark in history, it might be more prudent to look for wealth preservation in a longer time horizon to invest one’s fiat currencies rather than short-lived pleasures. After all, a careful look for generations to come, your children, is a view most valuable in general. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 26th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
It‘s the Fed, Not Omicron

It‘s the Fed, Not Omicron

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.12.2021 15:51
S&P 500 plunged on accelerated tapering intentions, and much of the risk-on sectors and commodities followed – even precious metals declined a little in sympathy. But where is the larger reasoning? If the Fed truly intends to taper faster in its belated fight against inflation, it‘s a question of not only markets throwing a tantrum, but of the real economy keeling over. Inflation is a serious problem, including a political one, and here come the Omicron demand-choking effects if the fear card gets played too hard. Thankfully, reports indicate that the alleged variant is merely more contagious and having comparatively milder effects. That‘s how it is usually turns out with mutations by the way – remember that before the number 30 frequently thrown around, shuts off thinking including in the markets. The world‘s economic activity didn‘t come to a standstill with Delta, and it appears such a policy route won‘t be taken with Omicron either. That‘s why I was telling you on Monday that any inflation reprieve the scary news buys, would likely turn out only temporary. Unless the Fed decides to make it permanent, which is what I am doubting based on its track record and the more rocky landscape ahead that I talked in mid Nov extensive article. For now, the Fed‘s pressure is real, and premarket rallies that are sold into during regular sessions, must be viewed with suspicion. It‘s not that we‘ve flipped into a (secular) bear market, but the correction is palpable and real – I‘m not looking for the habitual Santa Claus rally this year. Big picture, the precious metals resilience is a good sign, and return of cyclicals with commodities is the all-clear signal that I‘m however not expecting this or next week. Cryptos resilience is encouraging as much as various stock market ratios (XLY:XLP offers a more bullish view than XLF:XLU – I‘ve been covering these helpful metrics quite often through 2020), which makes me think we‘re in mostly sideways markets for now. At least as I told you on Monday, the (rational / irrational) fears started getting ignored by the markets, meaning we‘re on a gradually improving track. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 isn‘t out of the hot water, and it‘s still just a close in the 4670s that would mark the end of peril to me. The financial sector has to turn, strength has to come to smallcaps simultaneously – the 500-strong index is still performing in a too risk-off way. Credit Markets Positive HYG divergence isn‘t enough – the broad underperformance of S&P 500 must be reversed to establish stronger stock market foundations. Powell just added to the risk-off posture in bonds, and I‘m looking keenly at the expected, ensuing (in)ability to absorb less loose monetary conditions. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are acting weak, but not overly weak. When the markets get fed up with having to bear the tapering / tightening (real and verbal) interventions, it would be gold and silver that rise first. Crude Oil Crude oil turned out indeed weakest of the weak when fear overruled everything. Capitulation is a process, and it‘s quite underway already in my view. The way black gold crashed, the way it would rise once the sky meaningfully clears. Copper Copper weakness is what I don‘t trust here as other base metals did quite better. But again, yesterday was an overreaction to the Fed news that it would discuss speeding up taper. Just discuss. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum holding relatively high ground, is a reason to think the risk-on scales would tip positive. While BTC is still correcting, I‘m looking for it to join Ethereum. Summary S&P 500, risk-on and commodities aren‘t yet on solid footing as Powell pronouncements outweighed the dissipating corona uncertainty. Either way, the effects on inflation would be rather temporary – inflation indicators clearly haven‘t topped yet as the implicit Fed admission of dropping the word temporary confirms. Once the tightening mirage gets a reality check in the economy and markets, look for precious metals to truly shine. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Ready, set, silver, go

Ready, set, silver, go

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 03.12.2021 12:56
The most obvious first step is: “How much?” Depending on your time horizon and if your approach is purely diversification for your overall portfolio, a percentage of total investment capital needs to be set. This percentage should be higher on a more aggressive wealth preservation strategy and higher expected returns on beating inflation. Another aspect is if silver is traded as the only hedge or alongside other precious metals. Silver already has a leverage factor in relationship to gold. For example, gold’s response to covid was a 37% up move, while silver moved up 80%. This volatility leverage works both ways, increasing the risk for silver if not purchased on low-risk entry points and traded with appropriate money management. We have pointed out various reasons why we find silver an extremely attractive play long term in this year’s chart book releases. Monthly chart (a week ago), Silver in US-Dollar, ready: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The above chart was posted in our last week’s publication. We wrote:” The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22.” Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, set: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We were spot on. The anticipated entry zone has been reached. We added to our physical holdings and shared the trade live in our free Telegram channel. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We asked, “how much?” and in what diversification, which leaves us with the question of what denomination. The rule of thumb is that the smaller the weight amount is and the more recognizable the brand, the higher the cost. In addition, valuable numismatic collector’s coins have premiums as well. Generally, we find the added cost of brand items (Canadian maple leaf, American eagles, Austrian Philharmonic, and alike) to be of value since it adds to liquidity at a time of sale. While we would stay away from the added cost of numismatic collectible coins, we find there to be value to have a mix of coins and larger bars to arrive at a reasonably low-cost basis with a high degree of liquidity at the time of sale (larger bars are harder to sell than one-ounce coins). The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver, there is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September. As pointed out in the previous chart book, the goal of physical acquisition should not be the ultimate lowest price but availability and execution itself. We make a point of this, especially since we noticed that physical acquisition prices have in percentage retraced much less than the spot price right here, and once the turn is complete, could proportionally faster jolt up. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. It is essential to have an exit strategy in place before entry. These exit projections are necessary to measure risk/reward-ratios. Moreover, with the entire plan clear, there will be no debate while in the trade. This part of exit psychology is often overlooked, but a low-risk entry point alone does not provide a good strategy. We expect a price advance on silver within the next six to eight quarters to a price target of US$74.40! Significant profits allowing for an outstanding risk/reward-ratio. Ready, set, silver, go: Last week, we anticipated the market’s direction correctly and find ourselves now at the desired low-risk entry zone. With possible additional questions about physical acquisition answered today, we might have reduced doubt. The devil is in the details, and due to the various countries, their taxation law, and the wide variety of official precious metal dealers, we did not dive into the details on where to take possession of your possibly desired purchase.  Nevertheless, our multinational membership in our free Telegram channel might provide helpful information to your specific situation. We hope we have provided enough knowledge to erase doubt. We encourage participation since we see procrastination towards a wealth preservation strategy as the poorest choice in this challenging time for your hard-earned money. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 3rd, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Topping Process Roadmap

Topping Process Roadmap

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.12.2021 15:43
S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity to take prices higher in spite of the sharp medim-term deterioration essentially since the taper announcement. It‘s the Fed and not Omicron as I told you on Wednesday, but the corona uncertainty is reflected in more downgrades of real economy growth. There are however conflicting indicators that make me think we‘re still midway in the S&P 500 topping process and in for a rough Dec (no Santa Claus rally) at the same time, and these indicators feature still robust manufacturing and APT (hazmat manufacturer) turning noticeably down.Still, it‘s all eyes on the Fed, and its accelerated tapering intentions (to be discussed at their next meeting) as they finally admitted to seeing the light of inflation not being transitory. The ever more compressing yield curve is arguably the biggest watchout and danger to inflation and commodity trades – one that would put question mark to the point of answering in the negative whether we are really midway in the topping process. Another indicator I would prefer turning up, would be the advance-decline line of broader indices such as Russell 3000. And of course, HYG erasing a good deal of its prior sharp decline, which I had been talking often last week – until that happens, we‘re in danger of things turning ugly and fast, and not only for stocks should 4530s decisively give.In spite of decreasing yields, the dollar continues acting on the bullish argument introduced 2 weeks ago. Seeing antidollar plays struggle (part of which is the function of inflation expectations drifting lower on the Fed‘s turn – let‘s see when the central bank breaks something, which is a story for another day), is truly a warning of downside risks having sharply increased since Thanksgiving. Not only for stocks, where we might not be making THE correction‘s low, but also for commodities, cryptos and precious metals. In a series of two tweets yesterday, the warning is in regardless of a smooth Monday ahead.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bears are looking a bit tired here, and the room for an upswing is getting evident. The surge late on Friday concerned both tech and value, thankfully – overall, the market breadth isn‘t though much encouraging.Credit MarketsHYG did successfully defend gained ground, and strength appears very slowly returning – the gains have to continue to sound the all clear, for considerably longer. As said on Friday, the sharpest rallies happen in bear markets, so all eyes on HYG proving us either way.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are looking fairly stable at the moment – not ready to decline, and still taking time to rebound. The accelerated taper idea didn‘t take them to the cleaners – the real fireworks though still have to wait till the Fed gets really close to choking off growth.Crude OilCrude oil could keep the intraday gains, but appears base building here – similarly to natgas, this is a medium-term buying opportunity as prices would inevitably recover.CopperCopper prices reflect the combined Fed and (to a lesser degree) Omicron uncertainty – it‘s casting a verdict about upcoming real economy growth, and the red metal is still looking undecided, and merely gently leaning towards the bulls.Bitcoin and EthereumThe bearish ambush of Bitcoin and Ethereum was reserved for the weekend, and the bleeding hasn‘t stopped so far.SummaryS&P 500 looks to have reached the low, but the jury remains out as to whether that‘s THE low. I highly recommend reading today‘s analysis for it lays out the key metrics to watch in its opening part. The nearest days and weeks will be of crucial importance in determining whether the worst in the stock market and commodities correction is behind us, or whether we still have some more to go.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Alibaba Stock Price and Forecast: Why is BABA stock going up?

Alibaba Stock Price and Forecast: Why is BABA stock going up?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 07.12.2021 15:59
BABA stock rallies over 10% on Monday in broad rally. Chinese names have suffered as DIDI delisting hits sentiment. BABA and others rally on Monday as China cuts commercial bank reserve requirements. Chinese stocks are nothing if not volatile, and this continued on Monday with huge rallies in most names. The reason was that China cut the reserve requirement for commercial banks in an effort to try and pump liquidity into the system. This can be taken two ways, and investors chose to see the positives. China is struggling to contain problems in the banking and property sectors from spreading, and the travails of Evergrande Group have been well documented. Evergrande was due to pay $82.5 million on Monday, but we are still in the dark on whether it met this latest payment or not. Bloomberg is reporting that another Chinese developer, Kaisa Group Holdings, received a forbearance proposal from bondholders on Tuesday. A forbearance proposal would be a form of an agreed delay or reduction in repayments. If agreed by both bondholders and the company, it averts a formal debt default. BABA chart, 15-minute Alibaba (BABA) stock news BABA stock has been under pressure throughout 2021 as a wave of negative sentiment hit Chinese equities and in particular Chinese tech names. This was kickstarted by BABA itself as it had to shelve the proposed spin-off IPO of ANT Group late in 2020. China then began taking a more cautious approach to its tech sector as worries over the huge amounts of data generated by them escalated. Didi Group (DIDI) did manage to get its IPO off the ground in New York but now plans to delist to Hong Kong. Alibaba stock is down 47% so far in 2021 and 22% over the last month as the sell-off has accelerated. Alibaba (BABA) stock forecast Investors may rejoice at the current bounce in Chinese tech stocks, but this has all the makings of yet another dead cat bounce. Take a look at the monthly chart below. BABA has broken the huge $130 level, which was really the last hope of support. Now it is lookout below until $100. The longer-term view is strongly negative until $169 is broken to the upside. Alibaba chart, monthly Shorter-term traders will be aware of the 9-day moving average offering resistance at $127.56. The MACD, stochastics and RSI all remain in bearish territory. The 15-minute chart does show short-term support at $112 with a large amount of volume at that level on Friday that provided a base for Monday's rally. This may carry on for Tuesday as risk assets are due to bounce, but $130 will likely cap any further gains. Alibaba daily chart above and the 15-minute chart below. The 15-minute shows the large support volume at $112.  
Silver is moving up

Silver is moving up

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 11.12.2021 10:45
So, what are the facts: Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, probabilities: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 10th, 2021. In 2020, silver broke a multiyear sideways range and moved strongly up. It has now consolidated for over a year in a sideways range again. This is a bullish setup! As much as emotions might be weary, from a probability perspective, a general rule is that the longer a congestion is from a time perspective, the more significant will be the subsequent breakout from that range. Statistical probabilities are also clearly pointing to the upside rather than returning into the prior range. Not to forget, buying near the lows of such a range box guarantees the lowest entry risk and highest risk/reward-ratio play to be taken for the long side, even if emotions might tell you otherwise. 2021 silver trades performance: 2021 silver trades performance. Another fact is that one does not need to know when and if a breakout is happening to extract money from the markets consistently. The above chart is this year’s silver trades that we posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel. The systematic approach focuses on low-risk entry points with a risk reduction method through our quad exit strategy. Sideways markets provide an income-producing aspect of one’s trading, and a possible breakout of a range would give a significant bonus. An approach like this keeps emotions in check since one’s labor gets rewarded and allows for significantly higher rewards once ranges do break. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, silver is moving up: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 10th, 2021. In short, while waiting is strenuous, and one might feel doubtful, from a probability perspective, silver is an even likelier success story now than it has been six months or a year ago. What should also not be underestimated is the fundamental situation of this wealth preservation play. The extensions of governments playing the inflation game to such length are like adding fuel to the silver play. Widespread problems that are the pillars to this insurance play have, if anything, increased. Consequently, supporting a good likelihood that silver prices go up. When? Well, that is hard to say since no one knows the future, but maybe this question gets proportionally in weight too much attention since insurance isn’t just bought for the next storm to come but in principle acquired to make one feel good and to protect one’s wealth long term. The quarterly chart above shows how silvers inherent volatility can sustain, in times of market turmoil, extended phases of extreme standard deviation levels. Price moves far away from the mean (red line). We are trading near the mean as of now, and the very right green line is a projection of a possible price move up.   S&P 500 in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, Quod erat demonstrandum: S&P 500 in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 10th, 2021. Still, some doubt left? Have a look at the above S&P500 chart, representing the broad market. Does that look like a healthy chart? Baby boomers and general stock-market participants might be in for a rude awakening once they realize how little their fiat currency is still worth when they cash in those stock portfolio investments. Just compare your total living cost from 2020 with 2021. All positions from food to health insurance, from car gas to electricity bills. Calculate the percentage difference from those two numbers and add this percentage to the average acquisition cost of your physical silver, and you have the real value of your silver already now. How does homelessness double to a half million people per day sleeping roofless factor in? Does this chart represent great times when we face supply chain disruptions? Or is it all smoke and mirrors, and once the music stops, there will be countless chairs missing for everyone to sit down? Silver is moving up: The essential principle in play is that markets are counterintuitive. Meaning your feelings might have switched from enthusiasm to uncertainty, even frustration, but probability facts are in direct opposition to one’s feelings. This principle is the underlying reason why moves out of extended congestion zones can result in substantial moves. Once emotionally weak hands are washed out, these breakouts come from an emotional perspective surprising. Bears step aside and bulls chase prices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Gold – Recovery ahead

Gold – Recovery ahead

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 14.12.2021 13:26
https://www.midastouch-consulting.com/13122021-gold-recovery-ahead December 13th, 2021: The gold market is nearing the end of a difficult and very challenging year. Most precious metal investors must have been severely disappointed. Gold – Recovery ahead. Review 2021 started quite bullish, as the gold price climbed rapidly towards US$1,960 at the beginning of the year. In retrospect, however, this peak on January 6th also represented the high for the year! In the following 11.5 months, gold did not even come close to reaching these prices again. Instead, prices came under considerable pressure and only bottomed out at the beginning and then again at the end of March around US$1,680 with a double low. Interestingly, the low on March 8th at US$1,676 did hold until today. The subsequent recovery brought gold prices back above the round mark of US$1,900 within two months. But already on June 1st, another violent wave of selling started, which pushed gold prices down by US$150 within just four weeks. Subsequently, gold bulls attempted a major recovery in the seasonally favorable early summer phase. However, they failed three times in this endeavor at the strong resistance zone around US$1,830 to US$1,835. As a result, sufficient bearish pressure had built up again, which was then unleashed in the flash crash on August 9th with a brutal sell-off within a few minutes and a renewed test of the US$1,677 mark. Despite this complete washout, gold bulls were only able to recover from this shock with difficulty. Hence, gold traded sideways mainly between US$1,760 and US$1,815 for the following three months. It was not until the beginning of November that prices quickly broke out of this tenacious sideways phase and thus also broke above the 15-month downtrend-line. This was quickly followed by another rise towards US$1,877. However, and this is quite indicative of the ongoing corrective cycle since the all-time high in August 2020, gold prices made another hard U-turn within a few days and sold off even faster than they had risen before. Since this last sell-off from US$1,877 down to US$1,762, gold has been stuck and kind of paralyzed for three weeks, primarily trading in a narrow range between US$1,775 and US$1,785. Obviously, the market seems to be waiting for the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, gold has not been able to do much in 2021. Most of the time it has gone sideways and did everything to confuse participants. These treacherous market phases are the very most dangerous ones. Physical investors can easily sit through such a sideways shuffling. But leveraged traders had nothing to laugh about. Either the movements in gold changed quickly and abruptly or almost nothing happened for days and sometimes even weeks while the trading ranges were shrinking. Technical Analysis: Gold in US-Dollar Weekly Chart – Bottoming out around US$1,780? Gold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview Despite the 15-month correction, gold has been able to easily hold above the uptrend channel, which goes back to December 2015. The steeper uptrend channel that began in the summer of 2018 is also still intact and would only be broken if prices would fall below US$1,700. Support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 has held over the last three weeks too. The weekly stochastic oscillator is currently neutral but has been slowly tightening for months. Overall, gold is currently trading right in the middle of its two Bollinger bands on the weekly chart. Thus, the setup is neutral. However, bottoming out around US$1,780 has a slightly increased probability. Daily Chart – New buying signal Gold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview On the daily chart, gold has been searching for support around its slightly rising 200-day moving average (US$1,793) over the last three weeks. However, eye contact has been maintained, hence a recapturing of this important moving average is still quite possible. Despite the failed breakout in November, the current price action has not moved away from the downtrend-line. A further attack on this resistance thus appears likely. Encouragingly, the daily stochastic has turned up from its oversold zone and provides a new buy signal. In summary, the chances of a renewed recovery starting in the near future predominate on the daily chart. In the first step, such a bounce could run to around US$1,815. Secondly, the bulls would then have to clear the downtrend-line, which would release further upward potential towards US$1,830 and US$1,870. The very best case scenario might see gold being able to rise to the psychological number of US$1,900 in the next two to four months. On the downside however, the support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 must be held at all costs. Otherwise, the threat of further downward pressure towards US$1,720 and US$1,680 intensifies. Commitments of Traders for Gold – Recovery ahead Commitments of Traders for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader The commercial net short position in the gold futures market was last reported at 245,623 contracts sold short. Although the setup has somewhat improved due to the significant price decline in recent weeks, the overall constellation continues to move in neutral waters. There is still no clear contrarian bottleneck in the futures market, where professional traders should have reduced their net short positions to below 100,000 contracts at least. Until then, it would still be a long way from current levels, which could probably only happen with a price drop towards US$1,625. As long as this does not happen, any larger move up will probably have a hard time. In summary, the CoT report provides a neutral signal and thus stands in the way of a sustainable new uptrend. However, given the current futures market data, temporary recoveries over a period of about one to three months are currently possible. Sentiment for Gold – Recovery ahead Sentiment Optix for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader Sentiment for gold has been meandering in the neutral and not very meaningful middle zone for more than a year. Furthermore, a complete capitulation or at least very high pessimism levels are still missing to end the ongoing correction. Such a high pessimism was last seen in spring of 2019, whereupon gold was able to rise more than US$800 from the lows at US$1,265 to US$2,075 within 15 months. This means that in the big picture, sentiment analysis continues to lack total capitulation. This can only be achieved with deeply fallen prices. In the short term, however, the Optix for gold has almost reached its lows for the year. At the same time, german mainstream press is currently asking, appropriately enough, “Why doesn’t gold protect against inflation? This gives us a short-term contrarian buy signal, which should enable a recovery rally over coming one to three months. Seasonality for Gold – Recovery ahead Seasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader As so often in recent years, precious metal investors are being put to the test in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the past, however, there was almost always a final sell-off around the last FOMC meeting between mid-November and mid-December. And this was always followed by an important low and a trend reversal. This year, everything points to December 15th or 16th. Following the FOMC interest rate decision and the FOMC press conference, the start of a recovery would be extremely typical. Statistically, gold prices usually finish the last two weeks of the year with higher prices, because trading volume in the west world is very low over the holidays, while in Asia, and especially in China and India, trading is more or less normal. Also, the “tax loss selling” in mining stocks should be over by now. Overall, the seasonal component turns “very bullish” in a few days, supporting precious metal prices from mid-December onwards. Typically, January in particular is a very positive month for gold, but the favorable seasonal period lasts until the end of February. Macro update and Crack-up-Boom: US-Inflation as of November 30th, 2021. ©Holger Zschaepitz Last Friday, inflation in the U.S. was reported to have risen to 6.8% for the month of November. This is the fastest price increase since 1982, when Ronald Reagan was US president, and the US stock markets had started a new bull market after a 16-year consolidation phase. Today, by contrast, the financial markets have been on the central banks’ drip for more than a decade, if not more than two. The dependence is enormous and a turn away from the money glut is unthinkable. Nevertheless, the vast majority of market participants still allow themselves to be bluffed by the Fed and the other central banks and blindly believe the fairy tales of these clowns. The Global US-Dollar Short Squeeze However, while inflation figures worldwide are going through the roof due to the gigantic expansion of the money supply and the supply bottlenecks, the US-Dollar continues to rise at the same time. A nasty US-Dollar short squeeze has been building up since early summer. The mechanism behind this is not easy to understand and gold bugs in particular often have a hard time with it. From a global perspective, the US-Dollar is still the most important reserve currency and thus also the most important international medium of exchange as well as the most important store of value for almost all major countries. Completely independently of this, many of these countries still use their own currency domestically. International oil trade and numerous other commodities are also invoiced and settled in US-Dollar. For example, when France buys oil from Saudi Arabia, it does not pay in its own currency, EUR, but in USD. Through this mechanism, there has been a solid demand for US-Dollar practically non-stop for decades. The US-Dollar system The big risk of this “US-Dollar system”, however, is that many foreign governments and companies borrow in US-Dollar, even though most of their revenue is generated in the respective national currency. The lenders of these US-Dollar are often not even US institutions. Foreign lenders also often lend to foreign borrowers in dollars. This creates a currency risk for the borrower, a mismatch between the currency of their income and the currency of their debt. Borrowers do this because they have to pay lower interest rates for a loan in US-Dollar than in their own national currency. Sometimes dollar-denominated bonds and loans are also the only way to get liquidity at all. Thus, it is not the lender who bears the currency risk, but the borrower. In this way, the borrower is basically taking a short position against the US-Dollar, whether he wants to or not. Now, if the dollar strengthens, this becomes a disadvantage for him, because his debt increases in relation to his income in the local currency. If, on the other hand, the US-Dollar weakens, the borrower is partially relieved of debt because his debt falls in relation to his income in the local currency. Turkish lira since December 2020 as of December 13th, 2021.©Holger Zschaepitz Looking, for example, at the dramatic fall of the Turkish lira, one can well imagine the escalating flight from emerging market currencies into the US-Dollar. Since the beginning of the year, Turks have lost almost 50% of their purchasing power against the US-Dollar. A true nightmare. Other emerging market currencies such as the Argentine peso, the Thai baht or even the Hungarian forint have also come under significant pressure this year. On top, the Evergrande bankruptcy and the collapse of the real estate bubble in China may also have contributed significantly to this smoldering wildfire. All in all, the “US-Dollar short squeeze” may well continue despite a technically heavily overbought situation. Sooner or later, however, the Federal Reserve will have to react and row back again. Otherwise, the strength of the US-Dollar will suddenly threaten a deflationary implosion in worldwide stock markets and in the entire financial system. The global house of cards would not survive such shock waves. The tapering is “nearish” It is therefore highly likely that the Fed will soon postpone the so-called “tapering” and the “interest rate hikes” until further notice. To explain this, they will surely come up with some gibberish with complicated-sounding words. All in all, an end to loose monetary policy is completely unthinkable. Likewise, the supply bottlenecks will remain for the time being. This means that inflation will continue to be fueled by both monetary and scarcity factors and, on top of that, by the psychological inflationary spiral. In these crazy times, investors in all sectors will have to patiently endure temporary volatility and the accompanying sharp pullbacks. Conclusion: Gold – Recovery ahead With gold and silver, you can protect yourself well against any scenario. In the medium and long term, however, this does not necessarily mean that precious metal prices will always track inflation one-to-one and go through the roof in the coming years. Most likely, the exponential expansion of the money supply will continue and accelerate. Hence, significantly higher gold and silver prices can then be expected. If, on the other hand, the system should implode, gold and silver will be able to play out their monetary function to the fullest and one will be glad to own them when almost everything else must be written down to zero. In the bigger picture, however, gold and silver fans will have to remain patient for the time being, because the clear end of the months-long correction has not yet been sealed. Rather, the most important cycle in the gold market should deliver an important low approximately every 8 years. The last time this happened was in December 2015 at US$1,045. This means that the correction in the gold market could continue over the next one or even two years until the trend reverses and the secular bull market finally continues. In the short term, however, the chances of a recovery in the coming weeks into the new year and possibly even into spring are quite good. But it should only gradually become clearer after the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday what will happen next. A rally towards US$1,815 and US$1,830 has a clearly increased probability. Beyond that, US$1,870 and in the best case even US$1,910 could possibly be reached in February or March. For this to happen, however, the bulls would have to do a lot of work. Analysis initially written and published on on December 13th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on December 13th, 2021. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Florian Grummes|December 13th, 2021|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold mining, Gold neutral, Silver, The bottom is in|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.
Why Isn’t Gold Rallying Along With Inflation?

Why Isn’t Gold Rallying Along With Inflation?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 05.11.2021 16:20
  Inflation is high and doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon. However, gold is not rising. The question is – what does the Fed have to do with it? Inflation is not merely transitory, and that’s a fact. Why then isn’t gold rallying? Isn’t it an inflation-hedge? Well, it is - but gold is a lazy employee. It shows up at work only when inflation is high and accelerating; otherwise, it refuses to get its golden butt up and do its job. All right, fine, but inflation is relatively high! So, there have to be other reasons why gold remains stuck around $1,800. First of all, central banks are shifting their monetary policy. Global easing has ended, global tightening is coming! Actually, several central banks have already tightened their stance. For example, among developed countries, New Zealand, Norway, and South Korea have raised interest rates. Brazil, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, Romania, and Russia are in the club of monetary policy hawks as well. Even the bank of England could hike its policy rate this year, while the Fed has only announced tapering of its asset purchases. So, although central banks will likely maintain their dovish bias and real interest rates will stay negative, the era of epidemic ultra-loose monetary policy is coming to an end. We all know that neither the interest rates nor the central banks’ balance sheets will return to the pre-pandemic level, but the direction is clear: central banks are starting tightening cycles, no matter how gentle and gradual they will be. This means that monetary policy is no longer supportive of gold. The same applies to fiscal policy. It remains historically lax despite fiscal stimulus being pulled back. Even though Uncle Sam ran a fiscal deficit of $2.8 trillion in fiscal year 2021 - almost three times that of fiscal year 2019 ($0.98 trillion) - it was 12% lower than in fiscal year 2020 ($3.1 trillion). This implies that the fiscal policy is also tightening (despite the fact that it remains extravagantly accommodative), which is quite a headwind for gold. Investors should always look at directional changes, not at absolute levels. What’s more, we are still far from stagflation. We still experience both high inflation and fast GDP growth, as well as an improving labor market. As a reminder, the unemployment rate declined from 5.2% in August to 4.8% in September. The fact that the labor market continues to hold up relatively well is the reason why the so-called Misery Index, i.e., the sum of inflation and unemployment rates, remains moderate despite high inflation. It amounted to 10.19 in September, much below the range of 12.5-20 seen during the Great Inflation of the 1970s (see the chart below). So, the dominant narrative is about both inflation and growth. When people got vaccines, markets ceased to worry about coronavirus and started to expect a strong recovery. Commodity and equity prices are rising, as well as real interest rates. These market trends reflect expectations of more growth than inflation – expectations that hurt gold and made it get stuck around $1,800. Having said that, the case for gold is not lost. Gold bulls should be patient. The growth is going to slow down, and when inflation persists for several months, the pace of real growth will decline even further, shifting the market narrative to worrying about inflation’s negative effects and stagflation. Gold should shine then. Wait, when? Soon. The Fed’s tightening cycle could be a turning point. The US central bank has already announced tapering of quantitative easing, which could erase some downward pressure on gold resulting from the anticipation of this event. Additionally, please remember that every notable market correction coincided with the end of QE, and every recession coincided with the Fed’s tightening cycle. Moreover, don’t forget that gold bottomed in December 2015, just when the Fed started hiking the federal funds rate for the first time since the Great Recession, as the chart below shows. However, when it comes to tapering, the situation is more complicated. The previous tapering was announced in December 2013, started in January 2014, and ended in October 2014. As one can see in the chart above, the price of gold initially increased, but it remained in its downward trend until December 2015 when the Fed started hiking interest rates. Hence, if history is any guide, there are high odds that gold may struggle further for a while before starting to rally next year, which could happen even as soon as June 2022, when the markets expect the first hike in interest rates. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Intraday Market Analysis: USD Weakens Across The Board

Intraday Market Analysis: USD Weakens Across The Board

John Benjamin John Benjamin 17.12.2021 08:56
EURUSD tests key supply zone The euro jumped after the ECB announced it will cut its bond-buying program. The pair’s latest retreat seems to have been an accumulation phase for the bulls. Strong buying interest lies in the demand zone around 1.1230. A break above 1.1320 has put buyers back in the control room. 1.1380 from a previously botched reversal attempt is a major hurdle ahead. Its breach may trigger an extended rally towards 1.1460. The RSI’s overextended situation has caused a brief pullback with 1.1270 as a key support. GBPUSD attempts bullish reversal Sterling surged after the Bank of England raised its interest rates to 0.25%. The pound has been treading water above 1.3170. The sellers’ struggle to push lower and the buyers’ attempts above 1.3260 suggest that the mood could be improving. A break above 1.3300 has prompted the bears to cover, attracting momentum traders in the process with 1.3440 as the next target. That said, an overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback as intraday traders take profit. 1.3260 has become the closest support. NZDUSD breaks resistance The New Zealand dollar rallied as risk sentiment made its return post-FOMC. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a deceleration in the sell-off momentum. The long candle wick from 0.6700 suggests solid buying interest. Then a break above 0.6800 has put the last sellers under pressure. An overbought RSI has limited the initial surge. A pullback may test 0.6755, previously a resistance that has turned into a support. 0.6860 near the 30-day moving average is the next hurdle, and its breach could trigger a bullish reversal.
Fading the Rally

Fading the Rally

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.12.2021 15:44
S&P 500 made intraday ATHs, but the upswing was sold into heavily – pre-FOMC positioning raising its head? Bonds didn‘t crater, and the risk-off move wasn‘t all too pronounced. Tech weakness was the key culprit, with value barely hanging onto opening gains. Russell 2000 breaking below its Wednesday‘s open nicely illustrates how late in the topping process we are. What is needed for the upswing to go on, is tech leading the daily charge once again – and it remains to be seen for how long and to what degree would value be able to participate. I‘m taking today‘s S&P 500 weakness as squaring the prior quick long gains, which felt practically as a short squeeze. Now, we‘re working through the faster taper impact, not having shaken the news off yet. We‘re though getting there, if precious metals seeing through the fresh policy move inadequacy, and commodities likewise, are any clue. As I wrote yesterday: (…) pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course. Markets are interpreting yesterday as the punch bowl effectively remaining in place, and crucially, copper is participating after the preceding weakness. The metal with PhD in economics has been hesitating due to the darkening real economy prospects even though manufacturing data aren‘t a disaster. Consumer sentiment isn‘t though positive, and inflation expectations among the people aren‘t retreating as much as bond spreads would show. The red metals is balancing out the economic prospects in favor of participating in the renewed rush into commodities – the super (let alone secular) bull run isn‘t over by a long shot. Stockpiles are tight, and whatever the odds of the infrastructure bill being passed any time soon, copper isn‘t budging. That‘s great for real assets across the board. The reason I quoted the above copper part, is the importance of its yesterday‘s move – not too hot, not too cold in pursuing the broader commodities. Keeping above $4.28 with ease today, would be an important signal that the bears aren‘t able to step in convincingly, including in stocks. Oil would sort itself out above $71 while gold and silver would extend their preceding gains today. All in all, stocks would join early next week, and apart from bonds not going more risk-off, Ethereum outperformance would be another confirmation of a broader risk-on upswing to happen. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 downside reversal isn‘t to be trusted on a medium-term basis – but the downswing hasn‘t run its course, looking at volume. Good Nasdaq showing is sorely missing. Credit Markets HYG retreat while the quality debt instruments stayed more or less flat, is concerning for today – and for Monday, should we get follow through in bonds later on. Given the volume comparison, it‘s not certain in the least, which would set up conditions for a broader rally early next week. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downside is clearly over, and a fresh upswing well underway. Correction in equities is marginally helping, and the reaction of Fed‘s underwhelming move with more inflation news, would be the juiciest catalyst. Crude Oil Crude oil is building up the springboard once again – the current consolidation including in oil stocks, would be resolved to the upside next week. We haven‘t seen a genuine trend change in Nov. Copper Key vote of confidence has come from copper – more willing participation from the red metal is called for next (as a minimum, not losing momentum vs. CRB Index). Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum haven‘t kept Wednesday‘s gains, and could very well provide an early sign of buying appetite more broadly returning. Summary Bonds remain in wait and see mode, and aren‘t as bearishly positioned as stocks at the moment. Neither are precious metals or commodities, raising the odds of a bullish resolution to the S&P 500 rally that‘s been faded. The usual constellation is what‘s required – recovering bonds taking the pressure off tech, mainly. Ideally accompanied by solid HYG outperformance, value rising, copper extending gains, and Ethereum doing better than Bitcoin. Tall order, especially for today – but nothing unsurmountable for say Monday-Tuesday as argued for in detail in today‘s report. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Creating silver wealth without fear

Creating silver wealth without fear

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 20.12.2021 09:32
Two weeks ago, we posted the following chart in our weekly silver chart book release, after representing a strong case for a bullish silver play: Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly chart from December 3rd, 2021: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We wrote at the time: “The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver. There is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September.” Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, creating silver wealth without fear: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 18th, 2021. We were spot on anticipating how the market would unfold in the future. Furthermore, we followed the principles of consistent analysis of our surroundings, the market, and ourselves. We advanced confidently in the direction of likely probabilities and tried to keep doubt to a minimum. Hourly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, well positioned: Silver in US-Dollar, hourly chart as of December 18th, 2021. This sequence allowed for a low-risk entry on December 15th, 2021 right at the lows. The entry-level of US$21.47 already allowed for a 2.75% partial profit-taking on half of our position size at US$22.06. As always, we use our low-risk quad exit strategy to reduce risk and, as such, fear of losing profits. Now we are well-positioned with the remainder of the position, and a stop raised to break even entry levels. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, worth the effort: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 18th, 2021. The monthly chart above shows our planned following two targets for this trade. With an entry at US$21.47 and an initial tight stop at US$21.22, our risk/reward-ratio towards our first profit-taking target was about 1:2.37. Now for the next target at US$27.35, it is 1:23, and for the final target at US$47.20, it is 1:103. In other words, with extensive planning and stacking of odds, we were able to identify a trade that had about a percent of risk at entry time. In addition, we quickly mitigated risk by early partial profit-taking. And yet, we still have a profit potential of the final 25% of position size, possibly maturing to a 120% profit. Taking only highly likely and highly profitable trades like these is also confidence-building and a fear eliminator. Creating silver wealth without fear: Michael Jordan’s achievement of playing in the present moment only is nothing short of the accomplishment of monks and so-called enlightened beings. It takes a long stretch of a career to achieve such a skill set. It illustrates that trading is more than just pushing a button or extracting a mathematical edge system. Trading is psychology and requires many skill sets combined to produce the necessary consistency to overcome the dilemma that you are only as good as your last action. Luck alone will get you nowhere in this game. It is not our intention to discourage you. Instead, it is quite the opposite. Often trading can be overwhelming and at times one can be down thinking: „Why can’t I do this, why did I betray my own rules again?” Trading is hard, it takes screen time and skill. Do not let fear and doubt dictate your actions. You can do this! Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 19th, 2021|Tags: bottoming pattern, Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, The bottom is in, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Tension Beetween Ukraine And Russia Definetely Shaped News In Recent Days

Intraday Market Analysis – AUD Struggles To Bounce - 21.12.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 21.12.2021 07:56
AUDUSD sees limited rebound The Australian dollar softens over dovish RBA meeting minutes. The pair has met stiff selling pressure near the 30-day moving average (0.7220). On the hourly chart, a bearish MA cross and a break below 0.7100 indicate weakness in the latest rebound. An oversold RSI may cause a brief rally, but the bears may sell into strength around 0.7160. 0.7050 at the base of the initial breakout is an important support. A lack of bids could send the Aussie to 0.6990 with the reversal attempt at stake. XAGUSD to test demand area Silver drops as the US dollar inched higher across the board. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the sell-off. Then the recent surge has broken above multiple levels of resistance, prompting the short side to cover some of their bets. However, the bulls may need to defend their gains after the initial push overextended. The demand zone between last September’s low (21.40) and 21.80 is critical in keeping the rebound valid. 22.65 is now a fresh resistance before a full-blown recovery could materialize. US 30 struggles for support The Dow Jones retreated as major countries imposed curfews ahead of the holiday season. Following a double top under 36200, a drop below 35450 has broken buyers’ attempt to resume the rally. The index is struggling to hold above the base of the December recovery (34800) which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from 34000. Buyers will need to lift 35620 before they could attract followers’ attention. 34000 is the daily support to safeguard the bullish bias in the medium-term.
Gold and inflation

Gold and inflation

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 28.12.2021 16:28
High inflation won’t go away in 2022. Good for gold. However, it is likely to continue to climb and reach its peak. That sounds a bit worse for gold. If 2021 was tough for you, I don’t recommend reading Nostradamus’ predictions for the next year. This famous French astrologer saw inflation, hunger, and much more coming in 2022: So high the price of wheat, That man is stirred His fellow man to eat in his despair Yuk! So, life is about to get a little more complicated: we must now avoid becoming infected and being eaten by our fellow citizens! If you are interested in how cannibalism will affect the gold market, I’m afraid that I don’t have adequate data. Anyway, if you end up in the pot together with vegetables and your colleagues, gold’s performance probably won’t be your top priority. Hence, let’s focus on inflation. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the latest data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. This measure of inflation surged 5.7% in the 12 months ended in November, which was the fastest increase since July 1982. Meanwhile, as the chart below shows, the core index, which excludes energy and food, rose 4.7%. It was the highest jump since February 1989. This is very important, as it shows that inflation is not elevated merely by rising energy prices. Instead, it’s more broad-based, which can make inflation more lasting. Indeed, there are strong reasons to expect that high inflation will stay with us in 2022. As the chart below shows, the shelter index – the biggest CPI component – has been rising recently, which should move the whole index up. In other words, surging home prices could translate into higher rents, supporting consumer inflation. Additionally, the Producer Price Index has also been rallying this year. The final demand index rose 9.6% on an annual basis in November, the largest advance since 12-month data was first calculated in late 2010. Moreover, the commodity index surged 23%, and it was the highest jump since November 1974. All this indicates that inflationary pressure remains strong. Implications for Gold To be clear, inflation will eventually peak, and this will probably happen in 2022. This is because a one-time helicopter drop (the surge in the money supply) leads to a one-time jump in the price level. However, inflation is like toothpaste. It’s easy to get it out, but it’s difficult to get it back in again. To use another metaphor, if you wait with your actions until you see the whites of the eyes of a tiger, you can be eaten (sorry for being monothematic today!). This was exactly the Fed’s strategy with the inflationary tiger for most of 2021. Yes, the US central bank accelerated tapering of quantitative easing in December, but it remains behind the curve (or, to continue the metaphor, it’s still holding the tiger by the tail). What does it all mean for the gold market? High inflation should support gold prices. The expectations of a more hawkish Fed probably prevent a big rally, but ultra-low real interest rates are supportive of the yellow metal. However, what is one of my biggest worries for the next year (except for the perspective of being eaten by hungry neighbors) is how gold will react to the peak in inflation. Although inflation will stay elevated, it won’t rise indefinitely. When it peaks, real interest rates could go up, negatively affecting the yellow metal. Of course, one would say that the peak of inflation would be accompanied by a more dovish Fed, so disinflation doesn’t have to hurt gold, just as rising inflation didn’t make it shine. However, this is not so simple, and if inflation stays above 5%, the Fed could still feel obligated to act and bring inflation to its 2% target. Anyway, US monetary policy (together with fiscal policy) will be tighter compared to 2020 and to other major countries, which (together with a likely peak in inflation) creates a rather challenging macroeconomic environment for gold in 2022 (at least until worries about the negative consequences of the Fed’s tightening cycle emerge). If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
GBPUSD consolidates gains, GER 40 breaks above daily resistance, USOIL seeks support

GBPUSD consolidates gains, GER 40 breaks above daily resistance, USOIL seeks support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 30.12.2021 08:24
GBPUSD consolidates gains Growing risk appetite weighs on a safer US dollar. The rally above 1.3360 confirms that short-term sentiment has turned around. However, the push might have run out of steam as the RSI shows a bearish divergence. The deceleration indicates limited buying interest after the price went parabolic. 1.3400 is an immediate support. Its breach could trigger a correction and force the latest buyers out. Then 1.3300 would be the next support. 1.3500 is a major resistance from the daily chart. GER 40 breaks above daily resistance The Dax 40 climbed higher as investors favor value stocks in telecoms, transportation, and utilities. A break above December’s high at 15840 is a strong signal that the bulls may have had the last word. Trend followers would jump in, in anticipation of continuing above the psychological level of 16000. The RSI’s overbought situation could prompt intraday buyers to take profit. The previous resistance 15700 (now turned support) is the first level to evaluate buying interest. 15500 is the second support in case of a deeper pullback. USOIL seeks support WTI crude rallied after the EIA report showed a larger-than-expected fall in US inventories. The bulls are looking to hold onto their recent gains after they cleared the 30-day moving average and daily resistance at 73.20. 79.00 from November’s sharp sell-off is a major hurdle ahead. A bullish breakout could put the rally back on track. The RSI’s overextension may cause a brief pullback. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is an area of interest as it coincides with the previous low at 72.60.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are staging a daily comeback

Bitcoin and Ethereum are staging a daily comeback

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.12.2021 15:49
S&P 500 bulls stood their ground nicely, and the key sectors confirmed little willingness to turn the very short-term outlook more bearish than fits the little flag we‘re trading in currently – it‘s a bullish flag. Given the continued risk-off turn in bonds, the stock market setback could have been more than a tad deeper – that would be the conclusion at first glance. However, high yield corporate bonds held up much better than quality debt instruments, and that means the superficial look would have been misleading. Likewise as regards my other 2 signs out of the 3 yesterday presented ones – tech held up fine, and cryptos have practically erased yesterday‘s hesitation during today‘s premarket. The Santa Claus rally indeed hasn‘t yet run its course, and the slighly better than a coin toss odds of us not facing more than a very shallow correction, look to be materializing. As I wrote 2 days ago – What‘s Not to Love Here – we‘re entering 2022 with great open profits in both S&P 500 (entered aggressively at 4,672) and crude oil (entered with full force at $67.60). Both rides aren‘t yet over, copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury. As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021. We had a good year of strong gains, and I hope you have benefited. Thank you for all your appreciation and best wishes sent my way throughout all of 2021 and now by email or via Twitter – I would love to wish you a very Happy New Year – may 2022 keep bringing you happiness, success and good health. Enjoy the New Year‘s Eve celebrations, and see you again on Jan 03, 2022! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 consolidation is still shaping up finely – and does so on solid internals. Particularly the tech resilience is a good omen. Credit Markets HYG could have indeed declined some more, but didn‘t. While I‘m not reading all too much into this signal individually, it fits the (still bullish) mozaic completed by other markets on my watch. That‘s the strength of intermarket analysis. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver got on the defensive, but the bears didn‘t get too far – and the chance they could have, wasn‘t too bad. Rising yields were though countered by the declining dollar. Crude Oil Crude oil is likely to pause today, and will rally again once risk-on returns broadly, including into credit markets. For now, backing and filling above $76 is my leading very short-term scenario – Monday though will be a fresh day. Copper Copper is pausing, but the downswing didn‘t reach far, and was bought relatively fast. More consolidation above $4.40 looks likely, and it would come with a generally bullish bias that‘s apt to surprise on the upside. Similarly to precious metals though, patience. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are staging a daily comeback, and as long as mid-Dec lows don‘t come in sight again, crypto prices can muddle through with a gently bullish bias. Summary Santa Claus isn‘t willing to give much ground, and the table is set for this nice rally to modestly continue today – somewhere more pronouncedly (S&P 500, cryptos) than elsewhere (commodities and precious metals). I‘m still looking for a positive first day of 2022 trading to help make up for end of this week‘s headwinds – it has been great that the bears couldn‘t find more strength yesterday. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
USD to CAD chart is (probably as expected) linked with jobs stats

USD to CAD chart is (probably as expected) linked with jobs stats

John Benjamin John Benjamin 10.01.2022 10:30
EURUSD tests key resistance The US dollar retreated after December’s nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations. The pair has been in a narrowing range between 1.1270 and 1.1365. The previous fall below 1.1280 added pressure on the buy side, though it turned out to be an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate at a bargain. A break above the resistance could end the sideways action and trigger a runaway rally towards 1.1460. The RSI surged into the overbought area and may cause a brief pullback above 1.1295. USDCAD tests daily support The loonie rallied after Canada added twice as many jobs as expected in December. The year-end sell-off met strong bids near the daily support at 1.2620. But the rebound came to halt at the supply zone around 1.2810, which used to be a support from the previous consolidation. The RSI’s double top in the overbought zone has restrained the upward momentum. 1.2730 is a fresh resistance as price action is about to retest the critical level at 1.2620. A bearish breakout could trigger a plunge to 1.2540. GER 40 seeks support The Dax 40 edged lower as rising CPI in the eurozone argues in favor of tightening. The index saw stiff selling pressure right under the all-time high at 16300. A bearish RSI divergence in this major supply area indicates a lack of commitment from the bulls as buying slows down. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling has led to a drop below 16100, a warning sign for a steeper correction. 15800 is the next key support. A breakout could send the index to 15500 at the base of the latest rally.
US Federal Reserve - Playing With Fire Part II

US Federal Reserve - Playing With Fire Part II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 14.01.2022 22:49
The US Federal Reserve has recently taken steps to communicate a change in future policy – suggesting raising interest rates and acting more aggressively to combat inflation. Throughout the last few weeks of 2021 and early 2022, these comments and posturing by the US Fed have created some very big downside price moves in the US major indexes. As a result, the US markets' volatility levels (VIX) have moved to a recent average between 17~21 – nearly 3x historical normal levels.US Fed Likely To Move Very Slowly On RatesOne thing that I believe has become evident to many people is that we have moved past the COVID stimulus conversations of the past 24+ months. Inflation, rising prices, constricted supply-chains, and an excess of capital throughout many global markets appear to have shifted how the US Fed interprets future risks. The Fed is telegraphing these concerns to investors very clearly right now, which means traders/investors are shifting their focus away from high-flying Growth stocks.Even though traders are attempting to shift capital away from certain risky sectors in the US and global markets, I still believe we have about 60 to 120+ days before the bigger market shift takes place.The US Federal Reserve will likely start addressing inflationary concerns by reducing their balance sheet assets – not by aggressively raising interest rates. I feel the US Fed will navigate Q1:2022 and Q2:2022 by reducing balance sheet assets while allowing the global supply-chain issues to attempt to resolve themselves. By June/July 2022, or later, I believe the Fed may start to consider rate increases as a means to slow inflation.Fed Comments Shift Investor Sentiment – Metals In Focus For Later 2022This move away from Dovish/easy-money policies will push traders to consider more traditional hedge investments – like Gold and Silver. I'm sure you've read some comments over the past 24+ months about Gold being an extremely undervalued asset as the US Fed poured trillions of stimulus dollars into the economy? These comments were made concerning the fact that Gold rallied from $1450 in 2019 to almost $2100 in 2020 – over 12 months (over +43%). Could a big move in Gold/Silver happen again in 2022 or 2023?My research suggests a Double Pennant/Flag formation in Gold suggests the $1675 support level becomes critical soon. It also indicates a Breakout/Breakdown move may start to happen before March or April 2022 – near the APEX of the current Pennant/Flag formation.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The key APEX range is currently between $1785 and $1830. This represents a very tight price range where Gold may attempt to consolidate as we move towards the March/April Apex. My research suggests a move to levels near $1740 to $1750 may happen just before the Apex Breakout/Breakdown initiates. So, watch for a bit of downside price volatility in Gold before the end of February 2022.Junior Gold Miners May Rally +45%, Or More, On A Gold Price RallyThe Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) Weekly Chart shows a firm support level near $37.35 that should act as a floor for price. My research suggests the next 45+ days will see GDXJ prices stay below $44 to $45 – trading in a reasonably tight range before starting to rally higher near the end of February 2022.I believe Metals and Miners are aligning for a late February 2022 or Q2:2022 rally. The reason is that I believe the positioning by the US Fed, and expectations related to later 2022 (a mid-term election year), may prompt quite a bit of concern for the US and global equities. This will likely push investors and traders into “old-school” hedge instruments – like Gold and Silver.That means Junior Gold and Silver Miners maybe about 55+ days away from an explosive upside price trend.SILJ May Rally +70% to +100%, Or More, On Fed ActionsNear the end of 2022, I published a research article highlighting the incredible opportunity in Silver – focusing on how the Gold/Silver ratio had recently reached another peak level and had started to decline: Fear May Drive Silver More Than 60% Higher In 2022. This move suggests the disparity between the price of Gold to the price of Silver shows Gold is appreciated (and holding greater value) than Silver over the past few years.The COVID virus event, and the subsequent Fed/Government stimulus, shifted investors/traders focus away from precious metals and into the equities market speculative rally. Now that the US Fed is starting to warn of more aggressive rate increases and other actions, precious metals are suddenly much more important as a hedge against future risks.This SILJ Weekly Chart highlights the incredible base level, near $12, that continues to offer traders a fantastic hedge against a sudden Fed move. Using a simple Fibonacci Price Extension, we can see a $20 target level (+61%) and a $25.64 target level (100%). If the $12 level holds as a base/support, SILJ may be one of the easiest and best hedges against a sudden Fed move right now.The US Federal Reserve is, in my opinion, playing with fireThe COVID Virus Event pushed global debt levels higher by more than $19.5 Trillion Dollars (Source: Bloomberg ). The rush to attempt to save the global economy has created a massive surge in global debt levels – pushing the global debt to GDP level to well above 356% (Source: Axios).Why is this so important right now? Because the US Federal Reserve is talking about an attempt to move interest rates and Fed decision-making back to near-normal levels. In my opinion, this was the one fault of Alan Greenspan in 2006-07. The thought that we can raise rates to “near normal level” at any time when we have grown debt levels excessively throughout the world is failed thinking and ignorant, in my opinion.The US Federal Reserve is trapped and almost backed into a corner. I believe the US Fed will find any rate increases above 1.00 before the end of 2023 will significantly disrupt the global speculative bubble. Any attempt to move rates to levels near or above 2.00 would represent a nearly +2000% rate increase in less than 12 to 24 months. If you want to see a shock to the global markets where global debt to GDP is closing in on 400%, try raising the FFR by more than 2000% over a short period of time. That is what I call “playing with FIRE.”.(Source: Axios)2022 and 2023 will be filled with significant market trends and increased volatility. Right now, traders and investors need to understand the global markets are attempting to quickly transition away from a speculative/growth phase as the US Federal Reserve attempts to telegraph future rate increases. So it's time to start thinking about how to prepare for unknowns and how to protect your capital more efficiently.Growth sectors and US major indexes may continue to move higher for the next 30 to 60+ days, but my research suggests Q2:2022 may represent a "change in thinking" related to a late-2022 Fed shift. We are starting to see the markets move away from the speculative bubble-type trending we saw in 2020 and early 2021. Keep your eyes open and learn how to prepare for the big trends over the next 3+ years. The Fed is playing with fire right now. One wrong move and the markets could start a drastic price correction/reversion.Finding The Right Trading StrategiesIf you have struggled with finding opportunities over the past year or so and want to know which are the hottest sectors, or how to protect and grow your capital, then please take a minute to review my Total ETF Portfolio – Triple-Strategy Trading Plan to help you profit from these big market transitions.Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Bubble stocks...

Recovery Of Gold (XAUUSD), Will NZDUSD Meet The Sell-off? UK 100 Keeps Quite High Values

John Benjamin John Benjamin 08.02.2022 08:48
XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold continues to recover as the US dollar treads water. The previous fall below the daily support at 1785 had put the bulls on the defensive. The RSI’s oversold signal attracted some buying interest and prompted sellers to cover, driving up the price. The rebound has since gained traction after the metal rallied above the support-turned-resistance at 1817. In fact, the bullish breakout may raise momentum and open the door to the recent peak at 1850. On the downside, 1795 is a major support to keep buyers committed. NZDUSD remains under pressure The New Zealand dollar edges lower amid cautious market sentiment at the start of the week. The pair previously bounced off September 2020’s low around 0.6530. However, 0.6700 on the 20-day moving average so far has proven to be a tough hurdle. A drop below the fresh support (0.6630) indicates that the directional bias remains bearish. And sellers would be eager to fade another rebound. 0.6590 is the closest support. A break below 0.6530 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.6400. UK 100 awaits breakout The FTSE 100 rallies supported by solid performance in the commodity sector. The recent rebound hit resistance near the January peak at 7640. Narrowing consolidation and higher highs suggest increased buying pressure. A bullish breakout would flush sellers out and attract momentum traders, firing up volatility in the process. This would be a strong bullish continuation signal. 7460 is a fresh support if the market remains indecisive. Its breach could extend the correction back to 7250.
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

S&P 500 Chart And Credit Markets Candles Nears Quite Low Levels

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.02.2022 13:33
S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos did break down over the weekend, but the anticipated risk-on rebound fizzled out a bit too fast – as said on Friday, the bears have the upper hand now. Summary S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Credit Markets Trades Really Low, Oil Price Reaches High Levels At The Same Time

Credit Markets Trades Really Low, Oil Price Reaches High Levels At The Same Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.02.2022 15:36
S&P 500 is waking up to fresh European news, and holds up well. There is no panic upswing in gold and silver, but crude oil and natural gas are up the most. As the U.S. markets are to open following yesterday‘s Washington‘s Birthday holiday, let‘s bring up the key details of yesterday‘s analysis: (…) S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. What a long quote – let‘s update it with the premarket action. S&P 500 is still waiting with its potential upsing, dollar has gone nowhere really, and precious metals look like having a bright day today. The crude oil upswing shows that markets don‘t like the geopolitical news, and are likely to behave in a risk-off way of late (Treasuries, gold and oil up benefiting most). The internals of today‘s stock market action would be telling – I recently got an interesting question touching also upon rates and real estate: Q: I read your most recent newsletter with great interest: 1. You think the Fed would start to ease this fall? In your opinion, how long would that last?  Midterm would be done soon there after so would it be a quick few months then revert back to higher rates? 2. I’m asking question #1 as it would impact real estate. 3. You anticipate a “temporary” rise in the S&P this week? Are you thinking just a few days? I noticed 10 yr is going down. A: Thank you for asking. I'll take 1 & 2 in one go - I think they would change course latest autumn. So, now hawkish and raising, then turning to easing before midterms. Let's see first the damage this tightening does, and the degree to which they then turn dovish. As regards real estate, it's slowing down, homebuilders, XLRE... Headwinds would be stiffening, rates are eating into mortgages, but those ZIP codes where immigration into is high, would do best - but the overall, total real estate isn't an appealing proposition. When markets open, there is likely to be a little SPX rally off oversold readings. Sure, they can get more oversold - that's the way it goes during bearish episodes, which is why I'm not long. The trend for now is to the downside, so I would keep predominantly looking and taking opportunities to short. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos stopped breaking down today, and the price action smacks of joining in the modest risk-on upswing, as unbelievable as it sounds. Summary Yesterday‘s summary is valid also today – S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 04.03.2022

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 04.03.2022

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.03.2022 09:19
USDJPY tests supply areaThe Japanese yen stalled after an increase in January’s unemployment rate.The pair’s rally above the supply zone around 115.80 has put the US dollar back on track. The general direction remains up despite its choppiness. 114.40 has proved to be solid support and kept the bulls in the game.A close above 115.80 would extend the rally to the double top (116.30), a major resistance on the daily chart. Meanwhile, an overbought RSI caused a limited pullback, with 115.10 as fresh support.NZDUSD breaks resistanceThe New Zealand dollar recovers amid commodity price rallies.After the pair found support near last September’s lows (0.6530), a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment could be turning around. A bullish breakout above the recent high (0.6810) would further boost buyers’ confidence and lift offers to January’s high at 0.6890.On the downside, 0.6730 is the first support if buyers struggle to gather more interest. 0.6675 would be a second layer to keep the current rebound intact.UK 100 lacks supportThe FTSE 100 slipped after the second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without much result.The index met stiff selling pressure at 7560 then fell below the critical floor at 7170. Increasingly bearish sentiment triggered a new round of sell-off to the psychological level of 7000 from last November.A deeper correction would lead to a retest of 6850, dampening the market mood in the medium-term. On the upside, the bulls must clear 7300 and 7450 to reclaim control of the direction.
Natural Gas Hits Its Final Target. The Luck of St. Patrick’s Day?

Natural Gas Hits Its Final Target. The Luck of St. Patrick’s Day?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 18.03.2022 17:14
  St. Patrick’s Day is historically considered among the best trading days. Apparently, judging by the results, it may have brought some luck to natural gas. If you are interested in looking at the stats, an article by Market Watch summed them up. The second target hit – BOOM! Yesterday, on St. Patrick's Day, the opportunity to bank the extra profits from my recent Nat-Gas trade projections (provided on March 2) finally arrived. That trade plan has provided traders with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile. To get some more explanatory details on understanding the different trading ways this fly map (trading plan) could offer, I invite you to read my previous article (from March 11). To quickly sum it up, the various trade opportunities that could be played were as follows (with the following captures taken on March 11): The first possibility is swing trading, with the trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart) The second option consisted of scalping the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders). I named this method “riding the tails” (or the shadows). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) The third way is position trading – a more passive trading style (and usually more rewarding). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) The chart below shows a good overall view of NYMEX Natural Gas hitting our final target, $4.860: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) As you can see, the market has provided us with multiple entries into the same support zone (highlighted by the yellow band) – even after hitting the first target, you may have noticed that I maintained the entry conditions in place – after the suggestion to drag the stop up just below the new swing low ($4.450). The market, still in a bull run, got very close to that point on March 15 by making a new swing low at $4.459 (just about 10 ticks above it). Before that, it firmly rebounded once more (allowing a new/additional entry) and then extended its gains further away while consecutively hitting target 1 ($4.745) again. After that, it finally hit target 2 ($4.860)! That’s all folks for today. It is time to succesfully close this trade. Have a great weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Stock Tops $500,000

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Stock Tops $500,000

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 21.03.2022 21:44
A subscriber asked us recently where he should be putting his money and how to limit losses in his retirement portfolio. He expressed frustration as he watched Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway stock going up, but at the same time, the stock indices going lower and many of his previously favored stocks experiencing substantial losses! This conversation naturally piqued our curiosity. We decided to look into this for him and, at the same time, share our findings with our subscribers.Berkshire Hathaway stock traded at an all-time record high price of $520,654.46. At a stock price of $512,991, Berkshire’s market capitalization is $756.23 billion. Last year, Berkshire generated a record $27.46 billion of operating profit, including gains at Geico car insurance, the BNSF railroad, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy.BERKSHIRE vs. S&P 500 BENCHMARKWarren Buffett, age 91 (known as the ‘Sage of Omaha’), is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. He is considered by many to be the most successful stock investor in the world and, according to Forbes Real-Time Billionaire List, has a personal net worth that exceeds $120 billion USD.Very few can compete with his long-term track record. Since 1965, Berkshire has provided +20% average annual returns, almost double the +10.2% average annual returns for the S&P 500 Stock Index benchmark. The 2022 year-to-date comparison is:BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway +14.53%; SPY SPDR ETF -6.36%; FB Facebook -35.64%However, according to Buffett’s own humility, he has endured years of underperformance and has had his share of bad stock picks. When Buffet was asked about drawdowns at one of Berkshire’s annual meetings, he stated, “Unless you can watch your stock holdings decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.” According to www.finance.yahoo.com, the five biggest percentage losses for Berkshire have been:1974 -48.7%, 1990 -23.1%, 1999 -19.9%, 2008 -31.8%, and 2015 -12.5%.WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE ‘BUFFETT INDICATOR’?The Buffett Indicator, as dubbed by Berkshire shareholders, is the ratio of the total United States stock market valuations (the Wilshire 5000 stock index) divided by the annual U.S. GDP. The indicator peaked at the beginning of 2022 and remains near all-time highs even though many stocks are well off their record levels.This historical chart of the Buffett Indicator was created by www.currentmarketvaluation.com. Doing quantitative analysis, we learn that the indicator is more than 1.6 standard deviations above the historical average, which suggests the market is over-valued and, in time, will fall back to its historical average.Berkshire Hathaway At Fibonacci Resistance!On March 18, 2022, Berkshire hit an all-time high price of $520,654. The Fibonacci resistance level of 2.618 or 261.8% of the March 23 low of $239,440 is $520,196. As shown on the daily chart, Berkshire also met resistance at the 2.618 standard deviations of the quarterly Bollinger Band.THE BENCHMARK: S&P 500 SPY ETFThe S&P 500 Index is the industry standard benchmark when comparing investment returns. It’s worth noting that as Berkshire reached the Fibonacci 2.618 resistance, the SPY found support at the Fibonacci 1.618 of the SPY March 23, 2020 low.Central banks have begun to tighten credit by raising interest rates for the first time since 2018, attempting to bring fast-rising energy, food, and housing prices under control. More time is needed to determine the full impact that rising global interest rates will have on current markets.However, on the chart below, we can see that the SPY put in a major top around 480 and, for the time being, has found support around 420 (the Fibonacci 1.618 level). Considering the increased market volatility and that we are now entering a cycle of higher interest rates, it would not surprise us to see the SPY eventually break below 420.It is worth noting that when a market makes a top after a prolonged bull-market, we usually experience distribution. Distribution with volatility results from large institutions beginning to liquidate their holdings while smaller retail investors are trying to buy stocks on sale. In other words, the retail investors are buying the dip hoping to get a bargain, while the institutional investors are selling the rally hoping to be liquidated and/or go short. It is a battle that retail investors will eventually lose!It is important to understand we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article sheds some light on some interesting analyses that you should be aware of. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades with subscribers to our newsletter, and surprisingly, we have just entered five new trades.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.GET READY, GET SET, GO - We invite you to learn more about how my three ETF Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
USDCHF - Swiss Franc Strengthens, XAUUSD Rebounces, Will UK100 Start To Gain Consequently?

USDCHF - Swiss Franc Strengthens, XAUUSD Rebounces, Will UK100 Start To Gain Consequently?

Jing Ren Jing Ren 30.03.2022 07:41
USDCHF tests support The US dollar edged lower as traders ditched its safe-haven appeal. The pair met strong support at 0.9260 over the 30-day moving average. A break above the immediate resistance at 0.9340 prompted short-term sellers to cover their positions, opening the door for potential bullish continuation. A break above 0.9370 could bring the greenback back to the 12-month high at 0.9470. 0.9260 is major support in case of hesitation and its breach could invalidate the current rebound. XAUUSD struggles for support Gold struggles as risk appetite returns amid ceasefire talks. A fall below 1940 forced those hoping for a swift rebound to bail out. On the daily chart, gold’s struggle to stay above the 30-day moving average suggests a lack of buying power. Sentiment grows cautious as the metal tentatively breaks the psychological level of 1900. A drop below 1880 could make bullion vulnerable to a broader sell-off to 1850. An oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters, but buyers need to lift offers around 1940 before they could expect a rebound. UK 100 heads towards recent peak The FTSE 100 continues upward as Russia promises to de-escalate. A bullish close above the origin of the February sell-off at 7550 has put the index back on track. Sentiment has become increasingly upbeat over a series of higher highs. The lack of selling pressure would send the index back to this year’s high at 7690. A bullish breakout may resume the uptrend in the medium term. As the RSI shot into the overbought zone, profit-taking could drive the price down temporarily and 7460 would be the closest support.