sell-off

The official services and manufacturing PMIs were much weaker than expected, adding to the move into defensive assets on concerns over China's economy.   The Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.2 to 48.8 instead of the expected 49.5. Readings below 50 indicate a contraction in activity during the month. Excluding periods of contraction due to lockdowns, this is the lowest level for the index in at least 13 years. Prices were the main driver of the decline, but falling order books and inadequate market demand were equally worrying.   The Services PMI fell from 56.4 to 54.5, below the expected 55.1. While these levels are below expectations, they align with the historical norm we saw before the coronavirus.   The weak data triggered a fresh sell-off in the renminbi. The USDCNH pair was above 7.12 at the start of European trading, its highest level since November last year. Over the past three weeks, the pair has hit new highs almost daily. Unlike in March and December, the central bank has not prevented the renminbi from weakening around the 7.0 level.   A weaker local currency benefits exporters as it increases their global competitiveness. The main side effect is higher inflation. But this is fine for China, where the CPI fell to 0.1% y/y in April, and the PPI lost 3.6% y/y. Perhaps all these effects are what the People's Bank is trying to achieve.   The weak economy, low inflation and the central bank's apparent resistance to the Renminbi weakness suggest that the USDCNH pair will continue looking for a top. The closest landmark is the 2019 and 2020 highs at 7.19, which the pair can reach relatively orderly within a few weeks and maintain the current momentum. However, one should be prepared that the recent move will be exhausted before the renminbi weakens to 7.3 per dollar, approaching last October's highs.  

Market picture The cryptocurrency market hit a sell-off on Monday night, losing 3.8% in the last 24 hours, down to a capitalisation of $1.091 trillion - near almost three-month lows.   Bitcoin is losing 4% to 25.7 over this period; Ether is losing 3% to $1814, with top altcoins losing between 3.7% (Tron) and 7.9% (BNB).   The sharp move down has pushed Bitcoin's price below its 200-week average ($26.3K). And now all the attention of position traders is focused on whether the price returns to territory above that line before the end of the week. If not, we should be prepared for a big sell-off down to $22K. This is the main working scenario, given the series of lower highs and lower lows over the past two months.   An alternative and less likely scenario would be a reversal to the upside after a brief dip below the 200-week average. This dynamic could assert that big players are gaining on Bitcoin at this level, suggesting considerable upside potential.   According to CoinShares, investments in cryptocurrencies fell by $62M last week, the 7th week of outflow. Bitcoin investments fell by $3m, as did Ethereum. Tron, a smart contracts platform, saw a $51m outflow over the week due to the closure of the offering by one of the providers.     News background According to Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone, Bitcoin won't be able to show significant growth in the summer months. He also doesn't rule out a substantial drawdown in the crypto market amid a halt to change and a stagnant equity market.   According to The Block, bitcoin's 30-day average volatility on a year-over-year basis has fallen from the asset's characteristic average of 71% to 32%. The famous Meta and Amazon stocks have overtaken digital gold on this measure.   The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sued cryptocurrency exchange Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao. The regulator brought 13 charges, including unregistered offers and sales of BNB and BUSD tokens, Simple Earn and BNB Vault products, and staking.   JPMorgan will speed up interbank transactions in India using blockchain. The financial giant has agreed with five Indian banks to implement its blockchain-based Onyx settlement platform.

FX strategy (with Frantisek Taborsky, EMEA FX & FI Strategist) HUF has been the clear winner YTD in the CEE region thanks to the subsiding energy crisis and very attractive carry due to the extreme high interest rate environment. Despite the first rate cut, HUF did not weaken thanks to the NBH’s transparent communication, which we expect will continue to remain as transparent as it has been so far this year.   We expect that the market will continue to favour the forint, which will continue to maintain a significantly higher carry within the region in the second half of the year. In our view, the playing field for the forint will be in the range of EUR/HUF 368-378 in the coming months and we target 372 for the end of the year.   Thus, we do not see much room for a move lower from current levels, which is supported by the very long positioning of the market. This will prevent further gains in the forint. We can still expect the NBH monetary policy and EU money story to be the main drivers. Higher volatility will remain in the market in the second half of the year and we may see some seasonal FX weakness especially during the summer months. However, market expectations for EU money are rather cautious and so we do not see room for a big sell-off, similar to that at the end of last year over this issue. Moreover, we should see a deal ultimately being agreed between the EC and the Hungarian government. Overall, we continue to like the forint and the NBH normalisation story. We expect investors might use any EUR/HUF spike to build new positions in forint and benefit from the significant carry.   FX – spot and INGF   Evolution of gross external debt (% of GDP)   Fixed income strategy (with Frantisek Taborsky, EMEA FX & FI Strategist and James Wilson, EM Sovereign Strategist)   The market is pricing in a large portion of NBH monetary policy normalisation, but we believe that the region's fastest disinflation and a record strong forint will support further market bets on policy easing. Our bias remains for a lower and steeper curve.. On the bond side, despite fiscal risks, we see this year's funding fully under AKK's control. HGBs post the highest gains within the region YTD, supported by the NBH's successful normalisation story and government measures.   On the other hand, HGBs are getting expensive after the recent rally. In the hard currency space, current valuations look about fair for REPHUN, with spread levels towards the wider end of the BBB tier.   Headline risk remains high amid the ongoing EU fund negotiations and geopolitical noise, which mean there are potential upside and downside catalysts, and volatility will remain elevated. Meanwhile, fundamentals are recovering from last year’s energy shock, in particular on the external accounts. Further FX issuance is likely later in the year, with the AKK guiding for a potential benchmark size EUR issue, in part to prefinance for 2024.   Local curve (%)   Public debt redemption profile (end-Mar 2023, HUFbn)

European stocks are poised to open a little lower on Thursday, tracking moves we saw in the US on Wednesday following Jerome Powell's appearance in Congress. The Fed Chair appeared before the House Financial Services Committee and very much stuck to last week's script, which should come as a surprise to no one. Inflation is not under control and the vast majority at the Fed believe more rate hikes will be warranted was the message, although we got that from the dot plot.   For once, markets are buying what the Fed is selling and have priced in a 70% chance of a hike in July. But that's where they believe it ends with the easing cycle then starting around the turn of the year so the Fed and the markets aren't entirely on the same page. The data will likely determine whether markets remain in agreement on July as I imagine it will take less to convince investors that another hike isn't warranted than the Fed.   Will the BoE be tempted to hike by 50 basis points? What the Bank of England would do to be in a position to be debating whether another rate hike or two is even necessary. Instead today, the debate will be whether 25 basis points is even enough or if it should revert back to 50. The central bank has made almost no progress in getting inflation back to 2%, in fact, core inflation is still rising which should be causing some alarm on the MPC. Aside from the decision itself, the vote will be very interesting today. At each of the last three meetings, two policymakers have voted for a pause. Will they stand firm today or accept that more is needed and what will that hawkish pivot do to interest rate expectations? They're already pretty hawkish, with the terminal rate seen at around 6% early next year but that could cement the view that much more is needed.   Oil remains choppy but edging towards the upper end of its range Oil prices remain very volatile as we've seen over the last week. Trading has been very choppy as traders have tried to reconcile weaker Chinese growth, slightly more modest support from the PBOC, more hawkish central banks, and resilient economies. We appear to be in a position where we're either waiting for the economy to break or for central banks to achieve their soft landing aims. Brent remains in its lower trading range for this year between $70-$80 but we are getting closer to the upper end of that and there's still plenty of momentum in the move. A break above $80 could be a very bullish development and suggest traders are feeling less pessimistic about the economy.   Gold sell-off losing momentum ahead of the BoE Gold has been seriously testing its recent range lows over the last 48 hours but so far it's struggling to generate enough momentum for a significant move lower. Despite Powell's hawkish delivery in Congress, the yellow metal recovered earlier losses to close only marginally lower on the day, albeit below the lower end of the $1,940-$1,980 range it previously largely traded within. Ahead of day two of his testimony, this time in front of the Senate, gold is trading relatively flat and potentially in need of another bearish catalyst. The sell-off is losing momentum although it could get an extra nudge from the BoE if we see a more hawkish shift.

EUR: Looking at June national CPIs today Hawkish rhetoric from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde this week has failed to move the needle much on market pricing of 25bp hikes in July and September. Let's see whether those expectations change much on the release today of national CPI data in both Germany and Spain. These are a precursor to tomorrow's release of the eurozone CPI figure, where the core rate is expected to tick up to 5.5% year-on-year from 5.3%.  The difference between the US and the eurozone story, however, is the confidence and activity data. Today, the eurozone is expected to release another soft set of consumer and industrial confidence data for June. This leaves a lingering sense that the ECB's hawkishness could crumble before the Fed's.  With USD/CNY staying bid and eurozone data soft we would say EUR/USD risks another drop to the 1.0850 area. Valuation metrics suggest EUR/USD does not have to sell off too far - but the pieces of the investment puzzle have yet to fall into place for a EUR/USD rally.

Litecoin ended its sell-off and now is trading at 84.27 far above yesterday's low of 81.77. Bitcoin's current growth helped the altcoin to rebound as well. It has increased by 3.23% from yesterday's low to 84.41 today's high. Despite the current rebound, LTC/USD is still down by 1.86% in the last 24 hours and by 3.19% in the last 7 days. The buyers are still in the game but a larger growth is still far from being confirmed. LTC/USD Uptrend Intact!   As you can see on the H4 chart, the rate dropped within a down channel. This could represent a bullish formation. The altcoin turned to the upside again after retesting the uptrend line. The false breakdowns announced that the sell-off could be over. The weekly pivot point of 85.93 and the downtrend line represent upside obstacles and immediate targets.   LTC/USD Outlook! A valid breakout above the downtrend line may announce a larger growth and is seen as a buying opportunity.    

CEE: Dovish NBP should not push zloty to weaker levels Apart from the morning data from Romania and Hungary, the main event on the calendar in the CEE region is the meeting of the National Bank of Poland. After noon we should see the central bank's decision, statement and the basic framework of the new NBP forecast. Governor Adam Glapinski's press conference is scheduled for Friday. In line with the market, we expect rates to remain unchanged and the main focus will be on the new forecast and tomorrow's press conference, in our view. Both can be expected to be dovish in tone. The market has moved significantly in that direction over the past two weeks and is pricing in roughly 100bp of rate cuts by year-end at this point. Thus, the news from the NBP should not come as a surprise to the market though pressure to price in even more rate cuts could be expected. The Polish zloty joined the sell-off across the region yesterday amid a combination of deteriorating sentiment in Europe, a lower EUR/USD and heavy long positioning in CEE FX especially in the zloty and forint, which lost significantly more than the Czech koruna yesterday. Thus, in the case of PLN, despite the dovish NBP, we should not see much pressure for further weakness today but rather some stabilisation around 4.460 EUR/PLN.

CEE: Negative global sentiment drivers sell-off in region This morning, Romanian GDP for the second quarter posted a slight upside revision. June inflation in Hungary showed a drop from 21.5% to 20.1% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. Later today we will see May data from industry, construction and foreign trade in the Czech Republic. The PMIs suggest a further decline in industrial production, which is also the market's expectation. On the political side, the Hungarian parliament will today vote on next year's budget. S&P's rating review of Hungary will also be published after the close of trading today. The agency downgraded the rating in January to BBB- and so we cannot expect any changes this time. The highlight of today, however, is likely to be Governor Adam Glapinski's press conference following yesterday's decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave rates unchanged. We expect the tone to be more dovish than a month ago. It is possible that Glapinski will prepare the ground for interest rate cuts after the summer. We maintain our view that rate cuts are possible after the holidays, i.e. in September and October. CEE FX took another hit yesterday coming from the negative sentiment in global markets, which seems to be the main driver of the current sell-off at the moment. The market opening indicates an improvement in sentiment and so we can expect some gains in the region finally. However, the focus today will be on US payroll data, which will likely decide the next direction. At the moment we don't see too much negative news coming from the local story to justify the current FX weakness. Thus, we see an opportunity to unwind the heavy long positioning, especially in PLN and HUF ahead of a later recovery which we believe will come due to still high carry in the region.  

CEE: Recovery after last week's sell-off This week, we're looking at a lighter calendar. Today we will see the June state budget result in Hungary, which shows the risks of additional bond issuance in the first five months. Wednesday will see the release of labour market data in Romania. On Thursday, June inflation in the rest of the region will be published. In the Czech Republic, we expect a fall from 11.1% to 9.6% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations. In Romania, a further fall from 10.6% to 10.2% YoY is expected. Final inflation numbers will be released on Friday in Poland and current account numbers will also be published in Poland and the Czech Republic. We saw a significant sell-off in the FX market in the region last week. In our view, the driver was the global story and repricing as local factors remain rather positive. If the global story calms down as indicated by the morning open, we could see fresh gains and a rally in the region this week. Last week's sell-off has eased the steam from overcrowded market positioning in CEE FX, which should facilitate a recovery. We believe that the massive carry will attract buyers again, which should benefit the Hungarian forint the most. We see the next level below 380 EUR/HUF, which should confirm the recovery in FX and attract further inflows. Nevertheless, we're remaining optimistic for the whole region for this week.

Deflationary spiral risk has negated confidence in China equities. US dollar has continued to hold steady against the yuan despite a broad-based sell-off against other major currencies ex-post US non-farm payrolls. The key intermediate support to watch on the USD/CNH will be at 7.2160. Weak China inflation data offset positive China Big Tech news flow The dreaded fear of a deflationary spiral in China has reached “code red” where the latest consumer inflation rate for June has flattened to 0% year-on-year from a gain of 0.2% year-on-year in May and came in below expectations of an increase of 0.2%. This latest reading in CPI is the weakest rate since February 2021. In addition, producers’ prices (factory gate prices) continued to deteriorate further into contraction mode; it dropped -5.4% year-on-year, faster than a 4.6% fall in May, and worse than expectations of a -5.0% decline. Overall, it has marked the ninth consecutive month of producer deflation and its steepest fall since December 2015. Time is running out for Chinese policymakers to negate the steepening rout in the internal demand environment that can potentially lead to further loss in consumer and business confidence if the deflationary spiral starts to be persistent. It may lead to a liquidity trap scenario in China where monetary policy tools will be less effective to stimulate real economic growth. The forward pricing mechanisms of the stock market seem to have started to take into account some aspects of the negative feedback loop triggered by the liquidity trap scenario, earlier intraday gains of between 1% to 3.2% seen in today’s Asian session on the Hang Seng indices as well as China’s benchmark CSI 300 driven by China Big Tech equities as Chinese regulators have signalled on last Friday after the close of the Asian session to end a two-year plus of crackdown on the technology sector have been reduced by slightly more than half, CSI 300 (0.5%), Hang Seng Index (0.8%), Hang Seng TECH Index (1.25%), and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (0.7%) at this time of the writing.     China’s yuan remained soft despite the broader USD sell-off       Fig 1:  US dollar rolling 1-month performance as  of 10 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The US dollar sold off last Friday, 7 July reinforced by technical factors after the US Dollar Index cracked below its 50-day moving average that had been acting as a prior minor support since 28 June 2023, also ex-post US non-farm payrolls for June that came in below expectations (209K added vs. 225K consensus). Based on the rolling one-month performances as of today, the USD is weakest against the EUR (-1.89%), GBP (1.81%), and CHF (-1.35%) while holding steady against the offshore yuan, CNH (+1.44%). In addition, the US Treasury 2-year yield premium over an average of key developed nations’ 2-year sovereign yields (Germany, UK, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, China) has narrowed as well.     USD/CNH short and medium-term uptrend phases remain intact     Fig 2:  USD/CNH short & medium-term trends as of 10 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since the start of its upside acceleration on 4 May 2023, the USD/CNH has managed to evolve above its 20-day moving average and today’s price action has managed to stage a rebound after a retest on it. If the 20-day moving average now acting as a key intermediate support at 7.2160 is not broken down, the USD/CNH is likely to remain in its short-term bullish trend trajectory which in turn may see further potential weakness in the CSI 300 and Hang Seng indices. The only catalyst for a potential revival of bullish animal spirits in China equities is a clear signal from China’s State Council on the implementation of new fiscal stimulus measures in terms of scope and timing.  

The recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading has ignited discussions and speculation regarding the future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Traders and investors have closely scrutinized the implications of this report, seeking insights into the direction of interest rates and the overall stance of the central bank. To gain further perspective on the matter, we reached out to Matthew Ryan, CFA, an expert in the field, for his analysis. Ryan emphasizes that the US dollar experienced a widespread sell-off in response to the soft US inflation report. The June data revealed a significant easing of headline inflation, reaching its lowest level in over two years. Equally notable was the unexpected drop in the critical core index, falling below 5% for the first time since November 2021, marking a significant turning point.     The dollar selling off across the board after soft US inflation report intensified bets that the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle may soon be nearing an end. Headline inflation eased sharply in June, falling to its lowest level in more than two years, while the critical core index also unexpectedly dropped below 5% for the first time since November 2021 - somewhat of a watershed moment.   The retreat in the sticky core inflation measure will be particularly welcome news for the Fed, as it suggests that the bank's ultra-aggressive tightening cycle is finally bearing fruit. There remains a long way to go before underlying price pressures return to target, though the notion that almost all metrics of US inflation are trending in the right direction will be highly comforting for officials.     Recent hawkish communications from FOMC officials, including chair Powell, suggest that another 25 basis point rate hike remains highly likely later this month. We are, however, of the opinion that additional hikes beyond then are far from guaranteed, and are increasingly confident in our call that the July hike will be the last in the current cycle, before rate cuts commence at some point in H1 2024. We think that this dovish pivot should open the door to additional downside in the US dollar in the coming months.    - Matthew Ryan, CFA    

EUR: July PMIs rain on the parade As our colleague, Bert Colijn, wrote yesterday, the worsening eurozone July PMI figures point more towards contraction than stagnation in the European economy. That is something our European macro team highlights in their ECB commentary – namely that the ECB is just too optimistic in its growth forecasts. A reality check for those forecasts could undermine the ECB hawks and indeed the PMI data triggered an independent 0.4% sell-off in the trade-weighted euro yesterday. Even though yesterday's break below 1.1100 in EUR/USD was a euro, not a dollar-led move, we still see some downside risks to EUR/USD from the dollar side later this week. Expect support at 1.1050 to remain under pressure heading into tomorrow's FOMC meeting and a break under 1.10 would of course undo the positive momentum witnessed earlier this month. It is possible we see a very narrow range in EUR/USD today, something like 1.1050-1.1100, where the pro-growth China news may be the only factor holding EUR/USD above 1.1050.  Bigger picture, we may have to wait until September for the more sustainable upside breakout in EUR/USD, when the Fed will have sufficient evidence of disinflation to formally acknowledge it in an FOMC statement. Also, look out for the German IFO today – presumably as soft as yesterday's flash July PMI releases.

Bank of England set to raises rates to a new 15 year high European markets underwent another negative session yesterday, clobbered by concerns over weaker than expected economic activity, which in turn is raising concern for earnings growth heading into the second half of the year. Throw in a US credit rating downgrade from Fitch and the catalyst for further profit taking after recent record highs for the DAX completed the circle of negativity.     US markets also underwent a negative session, with the Nasdaq 100 undergoing its worst session since February, while the US dollar acted as a haven and the yield curve steepened. As a result of the continued sell-off in the US, and weakness in Asia markets, European markets look set to open lower later today, and while the Fitch downgrade doesn't tell us anything about the US political governance that we don't already know investors appear to be looking to test the extent of the downside in the market.     Earlier this week we saw some poor manufacturing PMI numbers which showed that the European economy was very much in recession, with disinflation very much front and centre. This has raised questions as to whether the services sector will eventually succumb to similar weakness. There has been some evidence of that in recent readings but by and large services activity has been reasonably robust. In Spain services activity is expected to remain steady at 53.4, along with Italy at 52.2. The recent flash numbers from France saw further weakness to 47.4, while in Germany we can expect to see a resilient 52, down from 54.1.         EU PPI for June is expected to slip further into deflation to -3.2% year on year. In the UK services activity is expected to slow to 51.5 from 53.7. With inflation unexpectedly slowing more than expected in June to 7.9% it could be argued that the pressure on the Bank of England to hike by another 50bps has eased somewhat, especially since the Fed and the ECB both hiked by 25bps last week.     Having seen core CPI slow by more than expected to 6.9% forward rate expectations have eased quite markedly in the past few weeks. Forward market expectations of where the terminal rate is likely to be, have slipped from 6.5%, to below 6%. It's also likely that inflation for July will slow even more markedly as the effects of the energy price cap get adjusted lower which might suggest there is an argument that we might be close to the end of the current rate hiking cycle.     The fly in the ointment for the Bank of England is the rather thorny issue of wage growth which has moved above core CPI, and could prompt the MPC to err towards the hawkish side of monetary policy and raise rates by 50bps, with a view to suggesting that this could signal a pause over the coming weeks as the central bank gets set to consider how quickly inflation falls back over the course of Q3. Such an aggressive move would be a mistake given that a lot of the pass-through effects of previous rate increases haven't fully filtered down with some suggesting that the Bank of England should pause. In the current environment this seems unlikely given a 25bps is priced in already.       In a nutshell we can expect to see a hawkish 25bps as a bare minimum, and we could also see a split with some pushing for 50bps. We could also get an insight into how new MPC member Megan Greene views the current situation when it comes to casting her vote. One thing seems certain, she is unlikely to be dovish as Tenreyro whom she replaced on the MPC.     We'll also get a further insight into the US labour market after another bumper ADP payrolls report yesterday which saw another 324k jobs added in July. Weekly jobless claims are expected to come in at 225k, while we'll also get an insight into the services sector with the ISM services index for July which is expected to come in at 53. The employment component will be of particular interest, coming in at 53.1 in June, having jumped from 49.2 in May.       EUR/USD – managed to hold above the 50-day SMA for the time being, with a break below targeting further losses towards 1.0830. Resistance currently at last week's high at 1.1150.     GBP/USD – also flirting with the 50-day SMA with a clean break targeting a move towards the 1.2600 area.  Resistance at the 1.2830 area as well as 1.3000.         EUR/GBP – continues to edge higher drifting up to the 0.8630 level before slipping back, although it is now finding some support at the 0.8580 area. We need to see a concerted move above 0.8620 to target the July highs at 0.8700/10.     USD/JPY – continues to look well supported above the 142.00 area, with the next target at the previous peaks at 145.00. Support comes in at this week's lows at 140.70.     FTSE100 is expected to open 10 points lower at 7,551     DAX is expected to open 22 points lower at 15,998     CAC40 is expected to open 15 points lower at 7,297   By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)  

FX Daily: US Treasury wobble unnerves risk assets A sell-off at the long end of the US Treasury market has cast a shadow over risk assets and hit cyclical currencies. The dollar has been the main beneficiary. Expect focus to very much remain on the US bond market into next week's quarterly refunding. For today, attention is on whether the BoE hikes 25bp or 50bp and how Brazilian assets react to the 50bp rate cut.   USD: Tracking Treasuries Wednesday's session was all about the US bond market and the sell-off at the long end of the curve. US 30-year Treasury yields were briefly 15bp higher. And far from the benign bullish disinversion of the curve we saw after the soft June CPI print, yesterday's move was a more negative bullish steepening. Higher risk-free rates hit US growth stocks (Nasdaq -2%) and also hit 'growth' currencies, such as the commodity complex and the unloved Scandi currencies. At the heart of yesterday's move was the US fiscal story. Despite the Democrat administration and its supporters in the media decrying Fitch's decision to remove the sovereign's AAA status on Tuesday evening, there is genuine concern over US fiscal dynamics. And it looks like the Fitch release was carefully timed. Yesterday also saw a slightly higher than expected US quarterly refunding announcement, where $103bn of 3, 10, and 30-year bonds will be sold next week. The fact that fiscal dynamics were in play yesterday was reflected in wider US asset swap spreads (Treasuries underperforming the US swap curve) and the US yield curve steepening. As above, higher risk-free rates are providing greater headwinds to risk asset markets - including equities. We are also seeing some slightly higher cross-market volatility readings which may prompt investors to partially de-risk from carry trade strategies (good for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc on the crosses, bad for the high yielders). We will also be interested to see how the Brazilian real performs today after Brazil's central bank started its easing cycle last night with a 50bp cut and promised similar magnitude cuts over coming meetings. The currency could edge a little lower today given the international environment. While the US Treasury story will be with us into next week's auctions, the focus today will be on the initial jobless claims (these have been moving markets) and the services ISM index. Barring a significant rise in claims or a big dip in the services ISM, it looks like the dollar will hang onto recent gains into what should be a decent US July nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow.    DXY could grind its way toward the 103.50 area.  

CEE: Inflation in Hungary finally below 20% Yesterday's meeting of the National Bank of Romania (NBR) was as expected and there were no surprises. Tomorrow, the NBR will present a new inflation report, however, for now we have silence from this side. This morning, July inflation in Hungary was released, posting a drop from 20.1% to 17.6% year-on-year. This is 0.1pp below market expectations and 0.1pp above central bank expectations. While inflation remains by far the highest in the CEE region, it is below 20% for the first time since last September and we expect it to be in single-digit territory by the end of the year. This is good news for the economy and the central bank, but also good news for the forint. Without many surprises, the market has no reason to push the central bank to cut rates faster, undermining the main attraction – FX carry. This, despite the decline in recent weeks, is one of the highest in the emerging market universe and by far the highest in the CEE region. Later today we will also get the Hungarian state budget result for July. The last two months show signs of stabilisation of the deficit at 85% of this year's target. State budgets are showing bad numbers across the region. However, in the Czech Republic, we have already seen the trend turn over, and in Romania, the government is trying to come up with a revision of the state budget in an attempt to keep the numbers under control. Today, we expect the deficit in Hungary to remain roughly unchanged. This should be good news for Hungarian government bonds. However, in case of a negative surprise, we could also see a spillover into FX due to the higher market attention. Moreover, this topic is of course linked to the EU money issue, which we expect to be back on the table in the coming weeks. So overall, everything revolves around the Hungarian forint at the moment. Values around 390 EUR/HUF open the question of whether we will hear some comments from the National Bank of Hungary, given that we are entering sensitive waters. Market positioning is probably rather balanced after the sell-off over the last few days, so we believe this leg of the move-up is over. But it is also hard to see a quick recovery. Despite a lot of local story, the correlation with the US dollar has been almost perfect for the past month. In other words, the main driver in our view is global factors and we don't see too much potential either way on this into US inflation numbers. So EUR/HUF may try to lower levels but we don't expect a big rebound after today's numbers.

The net short position in USD grew by $490 million to -$16.272 billion over the reporting week after a strong correction a week earlier. The decline is largely related to long positions on the euro, and in terms of other major currencies, the notable trend is selling across all significant commodity currencies (Canadian, Australian, New Zealand dollars, and also the Mexican peso). The yen and franc are slightly doing better, i.e., there is demand for safe-haven currencies and a sell-off in commodity currencies. Since long positions in gold have decreased by $4.5 billion, we can expect increasing demand for the US dollar.     PMIs for the eurozone, the UK, and the US will be published on Wednesday, which can significantly influence the rate forecasts of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve. Last week, we witnessed a clear uptrend in bond yields, suggesting increased demand for risk amid more upbeat economic reports. At the same time, we see a sharp deterioration in China's economy, which, on the contrary, points to slowing demand. This dilemma may be resolved after the release of the PMIs, so we can expect increased volatility.   EUR/USD The final estimate confirmed that the euro area annual inflation rate was 5.3% in July 2023, with core inflation unchanged at 5.5%. Since there are no seasonal factors that could explain the price increase at the moment, it would be best to assume the most obvious explanation - price growth is supported by broad price pressures in the growing services sector. Stubborn inflation supports market expectations that the ECB will raise rates in September, and this increase is already reflected in current prices. The strong labor market is also in favor of a rate hike. After a sharp decrease a week earlier, the net long position in the euro grew by $1.275 billion, putting the bearish trend into question. The settlement price is below the long-term average, giving grounds to expect a continuation of the euro's decline, but the momentum has noticeably weakened.   A week earlier, we assumed that the bearish trend would continue. Indeed, the euro consistently passed two support levels, but did not reach the 1.0830 level. The resistance at 1.0960, which the euro can reach if a correction develops, is still considered in the long term. We assume that the trend remains bearish, and the 1.0830 level will be tested in the short term. GBP/USD Inflation in July fell from 7.9% to 6.8%. This is mostly due to the fall in the marginal price of OFGEM (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets) from 2500 pounds to 2074. Without this decline, inflation would have still fallen, but much less - to 7.3%. Despite the sharp decline, inflation remains at a very high level, and further falls in the marginal price of energy carriers are unlikely. The NIESR Institute suggests that, among the possible scenarios for future inflation behavior, we should choose between "very high", assuming an average annual inflation of around 5% over 12 months, and "high persistence", which is equivalent to an annual level of 7.4%. Needless to say, both scenarios imply inflation higher than in the US, so the likelihood of a higher BoE rate remains, leading to a yield spread in favor of the pound. These considerations do not allow the pound to fall and support it against the dollar, while against most major currencies, the dollar continues to grow. After three weeks of decline, the long position in GBP grew by $302 million to $4.049 billion. Positioning is bullish, the price is still below the long-term average, but, as in the case of the euro, an upward reversal is emerging.       In the previous review, we assumed that the pound would continue to decline, but UK inflation pressure remains stubborn, which changed the rate forecast and supported the pound. A correction may develop, and the nearest resistance level is 1.2813. If the pound goes higher, the long-term forecast will be revised. At the same time, we still consider the bearish trend, and the chances of restoring growth are high, with the nearest target being the support area of 1.2590/2620.  

The Commodities Feed: Australian LNG strike risks ease We are likely to see further downward pressure in natural gas prices today with Woodside and unions reaching an in-principal agreement. This means that strike action may be avoided at the North West Shelf. Unions will meet today to discuss Woodside’s ‘strong’ offer.   Energy - Unions reach in-principle agreement European natural gas prices came under pressure yesterday. TTF prices settled more than 14% lower on the day as the market awaited news on the outcome of talks between Woodside and unions. This morning, both Woodside and unions have said that they have reached an in-principle agreement. The Offshore Alliance will meet today in order to discuss Woodside’s offer, an offer which they have said is ‘strong'. Obviously, we will need to see what the unions finally decide at their meeting today, but all indications at the moment look promising that strike action at the North West Shelf will be avoided. This suggests that we could see a further sell-off in European gas and Asian LNG prices today. However, even if a deal is made with Woodside, talks with Chevron are still ongoing, where there is 24.5mtpa of capacity at risk. The oil market saw some further weakness yesterday. There has been increased noise in recent days about possible supply increases from Iran and Iraq. We can now also add Venezuela to the list, with reports that the US administration is in talks with Venezuela about easing sanctions in return for fairer elections next year. EIA data released yesterday show that US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 6.13MMbbls last week, to leave total crude oil inventories at less than 434MMbbls - the lowest level this year. Crude oil stocks at Cushing also fell by 3.13MMbbls over the week. Meanwhile, refined product numbers were less constructive with gasoline and distillate inventories increasing by 1.47MMbbls and 945Mbbls respectively. Total product supplied (implied demand) was also weaker over the period, falling 498Mbbls/d WoW.

CZK: Last discussion before rate cuts The Czech National Bank (CNB) will meet today to make its latest monetary policy decision and we believe it will be the last meeting before it begins to discuss the real possibility of rate cuts. This time there is no new central bank forecast and the board will only discuss an internal update on the situation. Our forecast remains unchanged – a first 25bp rate cut in November alongside a new central bank forecast. The main question today will therefore be whether the governor will indicate when to expect the first rate cut or leave no clues. EUR/CZK is gradually sliding down with the market seeing that the CNB will not follow the NBP's actions. While it is clear that a rate cut is around the corner in the Czech Republic, we expect the board to adopt a cautious approach, which should support the koruna and erase losses after the sell-off triggered by the central bank's steps in Poland in early September. Thus, we expect EUR/CZK to end today safely below 24.40.

Whoever is driving the sell-off in US Treasuries – be it 'bond vigilantes' protesting against fiscal policy or just a market view for structurally higher policy rates – the outcome is a dollar-positive tightening in financial conditions. Higher volatility warns of a further unwind in carry trade strategies. Undervalued currencies can stay undervalued. The rising tide of global bond yields – especially US bond yields – is becoming the dominant theme in global FX markets. Whether it is views of structurally higher policy rates or ‘bond vigilantes’ demanding governments take fiscal responsibility more seriously, the net result is tighter financial conditions. This is normally a dollar positive. Concerns over the ‘erosion of governance’ of the US budget trajectory look unlikely to be soothed any time soon. Additionally, it looks as though the Fed may keep its hawkish bias for a little longer. This means that despite November and December typically being weak months for the dollar, the dollar may in fact hold recent gains into year-end. As always, the dollar is the currency of the United States and everyone else’s problem. Here we expect Chinese and Japanese officials to keep battling to support their currencies at 7.30/$ and 150/$ respectively. EUR/USD does not look particularly undervalued and in addition to weak eurozone growth, we are concerned that the re-introduction of the Stability and Growth Pact next year could keep the euro soft.  The ING view remains that three quarters of US contraction and a 200bp Fed easing cycle will take its toll on the dollar – hence our bearish 12-month forecasts.   In terms of the broader environment, tighter financial conditions have driven volatility levels higher and sparked an unwind of the FX carry trade. That may well continue this month and is a negative for most EM currencies. Additionally contentious elections in Poland and Argentina this month could add to volatility in the EMFX complex.