sanctions

The Swing Overview - Week 22

Equity indices continued to rise for a second week despite rising inflation and sanctions against Russia. Economic data indicate optimistic consumer expectations and the easing of the Covid-19 measures in China also brought some relief to the markets. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 1.5%. The Eurozone inflation hit a new record of 8.1%, giving further fuel to the ECB to raise interest rates, which is supporting the euro to strengthen.  


Macroeconomic data

The US consumer confidence in economic growth for May came in at 106.4. The market was expecting 103.9. This optimism points to an expected increase in consumer spendings, which is a positive development. The optimism was also confirmed by data from the manufacturing sector. The ISM PMI index in manufacturing rose by 56.1 in May, an improvement on the April reading of 55.4. The manufacturing sector is therefore expecting further expansion.   On the other hand, data from the labour market

Incredible Price Of Crude Oil, A Look At Cryptomarket, Dollar Index (DXY) And ECB

Bitcoin As A Safe Heaven For Russia? Sanctions, USOIL Nears Levels Of 2014

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 25.02.2022 11:31
Markets are trading with increased volatility and the price moves become unpredictable. Risks remain tilted to the downside, and price rallies may remain short-lived. The direct impact of the Ukrainian crisis to US equities could be limited, but the indirect impact, which is the rising energy prices could take a severe toll. This is why the war’s biggest threat to the American companies is inflation. The barrel of US crude traded above the $100 mark yesterday then eased back to around $96 as Joe Biden said the US will release its strategic oil reserves to ease the pressure at the pump. Also, there is increased possibility of a nuclear deal with Iran to unlock the Iranian oil potential - which would provide up to 800’000 barrels of additional supply per day. Bitcoin on the other hand gained on rumours that big Russian money could flow into the coin to avoid the US sanctions. Could it be? What would be the risks and implications of such a migration? Here is the link to the Bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl... Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 Ukraine update 1:44 Market update 2:30 Bitcoin: a safe haven for big Russian money? 5:47 Why US equities rallied & are gains sustainable? 7:50 Oil rallies past $100 and eases. What’s next? Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
BRENT Nears $95, SWIFT Had Been Blocked, XAU And USD Are Likely To Stand Strong Amid Tensions

BRENT Nears $95, SWIFT Had Been Blocked, XAU And USD Are Likely To Stand Strong Amid Tensions

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 28.02.2022 13:53
While stocks saw some signs of recovery towards the end of last week with Asian, European and US markets recovering some of their losses following the invasion of Ukraine from Russia, stock prices could have a very difficult week ahead as tensions escalate and more sanctions continue to be announced. Over the weekend, the European union announced a variety of sanctions on Russia including limiting it’s access to EU airspace and prohibiting certain banks from utilizing the SWIFT banking system, a move which could have catastrophic effects on the russian economy and was by some considered to be on the most potentially effective deterrents. Investors are taking that into consideration and while the war for Ukraine rages on, this week is set to be one of the most volatile across markets with the prices of stocks and commodities being extremely susceptible to any kind of sanction and geopolitical instability. If the situation continues to escalate, risky assets like stocks and crypto currencies could be seeing another week of losses while investors continue to rush to safe havens like gold and the USD which benefited greatly last week from the shocking turn of events. Oil prices remain under pressure after Brent retreats from $100 While oil prices managed to decline as recent news emerged of potential talks between Russia and Ukraine to deescalate the situation after markets panicked following the invasion, the situation remains extremely uncertain. Brent is trading around the $95 area after pulling back from the multi-year high reached as supply concerns reached critical levels following the invasion of Ukraine which sparked a series of sanctions from western countries. Due to the fact that the Russian economy is so heavily reliant on its energy exports, much of which goes to Europe, those fears could persist throughout the week as a lack of resolution could only serve to further destabilize the situation. While there are potential alternatives available to European economies, many of them are costly and impractical for the time being and as it appears that at this point almost nothing is off the table, it could lead oil prices to retest those highs from 2014 and potentially even break past them.  
What's The Future Of Bitcoin (BTC) Price In Times Of Sanctions?

What's The Future Of Bitcoin (BTC) Price In Times Of Sanctions?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.02.2022 16:02
Bitcoin price is behaving very well this stormy Monday morning as global markets are under pressure from sanctions against Russia. BTC sees elevated interest as people in Russia dive into Bitcoin as an alternative method of payment. Expect this interest to add to more popularity for Bitcoin as long as the current sanctions are imposed on Russia and its ruble. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding it together all-in-all quite well as price action dipped lower over the weekend but is back up for the day as Bitcoin sees an uptick in demand at the start of the week. That demand comes from Russian people using Bitcoin as an alternative method of payment as the local currency has devalued considerably, and several sanctions are making it impossible to use FX alternatives. With this renewed interest, expect to see BTC price action rise towards $39,780, holding a 10% profit potential. Bitcoin regains the needed attention it deserves Over the weekend, price action got rejected to the downside and saw a 7% devaluation. Yet with the introduction of several sanctions onRussia, significant demand is being seen for Bitcoin as Russians seek alternative payment methods as their own currency has devalued sharply by 20% on Monday morning, and foreign currencies are forbidden as a form of payment. This is the perfect background for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies to get renewed positive attention. Several Russians will be opening a crypto wallet and buying into Bitcoin price action, which could propel price action towards $39,780 in the first phase.once Bitcoin becomes the standard form of payment in Russia, and as the Relative Strength Index still has plenty of room to go, expect to see a further move to the upside, hitting $41,756 in the near term. BTC/USD daily chart Depending on the current peace talks underway this afternoon between Russia and Ukraine, expect to see a possible dip back towards $38,073 or even $36,709 as the supportive baseline in these past few days. Should the situation deteriorate again and see renewed attacks – and even the use of Russian nuclear weapons – expect to see a sharp nosedive move towards $32,650, nearing the distribution zone from a few months ago. With that move, the Relative Strength Index will have entered the oversold area, however, suggesting an increased likelihood of an eventual recovery.
Little Hope that OPEC+ Will Reduce Energy Fears

Little Hope that OPEC+ Will Reduce Energy Fears

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 28.02.2022 17:21
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has produced a climate of anxiety around global supply disruptions. Don’t expect it to abate just yet. After witnessing crude oil prices slipping on Friday (Feb. 25) – as some major players sold off their positions before the weekend, which was still marked by a context of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the current Ukraine-Russia conflict – lots of concerns remain over potential global supply disruptions from a strengtening set of sanctions on major crude exporting country Russia. The sanction that is likely to impact the Russian bear the most in the long term was taken by Taiwan in the weekend (under rising pressure from the West) to block the sales of electronic microchips to the Russian Federation. OPEC+ will meet this Wednesday (Mar. 2) during a surge in the two black gold benchmarks, with little hope, however, that their action will dissipate the feverishness of the energy markets. British oil giant BP’s shares fell by nearly 7% this morning on the London Stock Exchange, the day after the announcement of its divestiture from the Russian giant Rosneft, in which it held a 19.75% stake. Technically, the sturdiest support seems to be located around the $93.36-95.01 area for Brent and around the $89.54-90.45 area for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), as we recently saw some bulls entering long trades around those levels. We could see prices rebounding onto these support zones one more time as volatility stays high. Figure 1 - VIX "Fear Index" The VIX (aka “Fear Index”) – currently trading around 30 – could spike again depending on how the situation progresses. Regarding risk management, it is always best to define your strategy according to your own risk profile. For some guidance on trade management, please read this article on how to secure profits. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Crypto Prices Rise: On Monday BTC Added 10.6%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 7.9%, XRP Gained 6.3%, Terra (LUNA) Added 15.3%

Crypto Prices Rise: On Monday BTC Added 10.6%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 7.9%, XRP Gained 6.3%, Terra (LUNA) Added 15.3%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.03.2022 08:31
Bitcoin made a powerful leap up after assurances from the owners of the largest crypto exchanges, Binance, Kraken, KuCoin and AAX, that they do not intend to block the funds of individual Russians. However, the head of Kraken warned that they would abide by the regulator's decision if it comes.Overnight, the United States noted that they would stop attempts to use cryptocurrencies to circumvent personal sanctions. So, retail clients of large crypto exchanges are not yet afraid for their funds. This probably explains the latest growth momentum.Technically, Bitcoin broke through the upper limit of the four-month descending channel at the close of the month. Moderate optimism of Asian and US indices is also on the side of buyers.February was confirmed to be a growing month for bitcoin. However, March is not so favourable. Over the past 11 years, BTC ended this month with growth only in two cases.Disabling Russia from SWIFT will have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market, says Jiang Zhuer, CEO of the BTC.TOP pool. In his opinion, Russia can use various methods to circumvent restrictions, including digital assets, to make payments. Bank of America does not see the prerequisites for a large-scale crypto winter, as evidenced by the dynamics of the movement of cryptocurrencies between private and exchange wallets. The level of acceptance of crypto assets by users is also growing, as well as the activity of developers.Bitcoin jumped 10.8% on Monday to $41,600, the highest gain in five months. On Tuesday morning, the momentum continued with a jump to $44,000 at the start of the day. At the time of writing, prices have stabilized around $43,200. Ethereum added 7.9%, while other top-ten altcoins rose from 6.3% (XRP) to 15.3 % (Terra).The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 11% over the day, to $1.9 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 43% due to the smaller strengthening of altcoins.The crypto-currency fear and greed index soared 31 points to 51 on the day, moving out of fear into neutral territory.Although Bitcoin showed negative dynamics for most of the month, the shock growth at the end of it allowed BTC to end February with strengthening (+8.6%) after three months of decline.
USDCHF Trades Lower, EURGBP - EUR Weakened A Bit, US 100 Looks To Hold Its Normal Level

USDCHF Trades Lower, EURGBP - EUR Weakened A Bit, US 100 Looks To Hold Its Normal Level

Jing Ren Jing Ren 01.03.2022 10:07
USDCHF struggles for support The Swiss franc rallies as new sanctions against Russia trigger a flight to safety. The pair has met stiff resistance in the supply area (0.9290). Then a drop below 0.9220 and 0.9170 suggests that sentiment remains cautious and buyers are hesitant. 0.9150 is a key level to safeguard the greenback’s latest bounce. A bearish breakout could send the pair to the daily support at 0.9110. An oversold RSI may attract some buying interest. The bulls need to reclaim 0.9230 before they could hope for a turnaround. EURGBP attempts to rebound The euro struggles amid escalation in Western sanctions. A bullish attempt above 0.8400 indicates an upward bias as sellers cover their positions. 0.8310 has been solid support. And the market mood may become increasingly upbeat if buyers succeed in holding above this level. An extended rally may send the single currency to the daily resistance at 0.8475, where a breakout may cause a bullish reversal in the weeks to come. On the downside, a fall below the said demand zone may send the euro to 0.8260. US 100 to test key resistance The Nasdaq 100 bounces as Russia and Ukraine meet for peace talks. The index saw bids near last May’s lows (13050), an important floor to prevent further bleeding. A rebound above 14050 has prompted some sellers to take profit, easing the downward pressure for the moment. Price action is heading to the next resistance at 14500 which sits on the 30-day moving average, and high volume could be expected in this area of interest. A bullish breakout could boost sentiment in the short term and extend gains to 15280.
What to do with your free capital in Russia

What to do with your free capital in Russia

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.03.2022 13:30
The main question that ruble traders ask themselves is whether the Central Bank managed to prevent a collapse in the exchange rate? At the moment, the euro is officially worth 104.4, and the dollar is 93.5.According to a leading analyst at FxPro, the ruble is recovering from the second shock wave that hit on Monday, when the Central Bank was unable to use foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate. The dollar and the euro declined somewhat, but these levels still can hardly be called sustainable. An increase in the interest rate has a relatively long-term effect, while a liquidity crisis affects quotes "here and now".A steady reversal to growth in the Russian currency should be expected no earlier than when we receive reliable signals from the EU and the US. Until then, downward impulses may alternate with relatively short pullback periods. In our opinion, some stabilization of the exchange rate may occur in the range of 100-110 since this is a low enough level for traders to start picking up the ruble in the short term. Of course, this is only if we exclude the scenario of further tightening of sanctions.There is another issue that worries the consumers who are now in Russia. We are talking, among other things, about foreign citizens who came to Russia to do business or for personal reasons. Many of them have free balances in the region of 100 thousand rubbles in their bank accounts. As a rule, businesspeople short-term invest capital or acquire their own currency. The question arises of what to do with this capital now.In our opinion, it is better to save free money for force majeure, since in the current circumstances, it is worth increasing the capital and abandoning all unplanned purchases. If you are in Russia, then it is better to keep your savings in rubbles since it is not profitable to buy currency in banks now, as the exchange rate difference is too large.Of course, in the coming weeks and months, equipment, and all imported goods in the territory of the Russian Federation will rise in price significantly. At the same time, the value of cash soon may manifest itself more than ever. This is confirmed by queues at ATMs and multiple increases in cash in the hands of Russians.Many right now are looking towards buying a new car from a showroom with the prospect of selling it in a few months at a higher price (considering the sanctions).If your capital is even larger, it perhaps remains only to wait since the withdrawal to foreign accounts is limited. Thus, Russian residents will not be able to credit foreign currency to their accounts and deposits in foreign banks and brokers. The ban takes effect today.
Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Will Be Supported, But Probable Massive Sale Of Russian Gold Can Hinder The Rise

Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Will Be Supported, But Probable Massive Sale Of Russian Gold Can Hinder The Rise

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 01.03.2022 16:01
  Russia underestimated Ukraine’s fierce defense. Instead of quick conquest, the war is still going on. The same applies to pulling the rope between gold bulls and bears. It was supposed to be a blitzkrieg. The plan was simple: within 72 hours Russian troops were to take control of Kyiv, stage a coup, overthrow the democratically elected Ukrainian authorities, and install a pro-Russian puppet government. Well, the blitzkrieg clearly failed. The war has been going on for five days already, and Kyiv (and other major cities) remains in Ukrainian hands, while the Russians suffer great losses. Indeed, the Ukrainians are fighting valiantly. The Kremlin apparently did not expect such high morale among the troops and civilians, as well as such excellent organization and preparation. Meanwhile, the morale among Russian soldiers is reported to be pathetically low, as they have no motivation to fight with culturally close Ukrainians (many of whom speak perfect Russian). The invaders are also poorly equipped, and the whole operation was logistically unprepared (as the assumption was a quick capitulation by Ukrainian forces and a speedy collapse of the government in Kyiv). Well, pride comes before a fall. What’s more, the West is united as never before (Germany did a historic U-turn in its foreign and energy policies) and has already imposed relatively heavy economic sanctions on Russia (including cutting off some of the country’s banks from SWIFT), and donated weapons to Ukraine. However – and unfortunately – the war is far from being ended. Military analysts expect a second wave of Russian troops that can break the resistance of the Ukrainians, who have fewer forces and cannot relieve the soldiers just like the other side. Indeed, satellite pictures show a large convoy of Russian forces near Kyiv. Russia is also gathering troops in Belarus and – sadly – started shelling residential quarters in Ukrainian cities. According to US intelligence, Belarusian soldiers could join Russian forces. The coming days will be crucial for the fate of the conflict.   Implications for Gold What does the war between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, initially, the conflict was supportive of gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London Fix) soared to $1,936 on Thursday. However, the rally was very short-lived, as the very next day, gold prices fell to $1,885. Thus, gold’s performance looked like “buy the rumor, sell the news.” However, yesterday, the price of the yellow metal returned above $1,900, so some geopolitical risk premium may still be present in the gold market. Anyway, it seems that I was right in urging investors to focus on fundamentals and to not make long-term investments merely based on geopolitical risks, the impact of which is often only temporary. Having said that, gold may continue its bullish trend, at least for a while. After all, the war not only increases risk aversion, but it also improves gold’s fundamental outlook. First of all, the Fed is now less likely to raise the federal funds rate in March. It will probably still tighten its monetary policy, but in a less aggressive way. For example, the market odds of a 50-basis point hike decreased from 41.4% one week ago to 12.4% now. What’s more, we are observing increasing energy prices, which could increase inflation further. The combination of higher inflation and a less hawkish Fed should be fundamentally positive for gold prices, as it implies low real interest rates. On the other hand, gold may find itself under downward pressure from selling reserves to raise liquidity. I'm referring to the fact that the West has cut Russia off from the SWIFT system in part. In such a situation, Russia would have to sell part of its massive gold reserves, which could exert downward pressure on prices. Hence, the upcoming days may be quite volatile for the gold market. At the end of my article, I would like to point out that although the war in Ukraine entails implications for the precious metals market, it is mostly a humanitarian tragedy. My thoughts and prayers are with all the casualties of the conflict and their families. I hope that Ukraine will withstand the invasion and peace will return soon! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Speaking Of Rallying Chinese Stocks, Quite Unchanged Bitcoin Price, BoE, Fed And Central Bank Of Turkey Interest Rates Decisions

Getting Rid Of Russian Commodities Affects And Will Affect Markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 10:04
Brent crude prices have jumped 13% since the start of the week, trading above $110 a barrel at the time of writing. These are the highest levels since July 2014. Meanwhile, the ruble continues to retreat against the dollar and euro.  USDRUB is now trading at 106.40 (+5.5%) on the Moscow Exchange, and EURRUB is above 118 (+5%). In both cases, rates are approaching the highs set at the start of trading on Monday. As would be expected, the announced support measures from the Central Bank are softening the fall but not reversing it. The one-way movement in oil prices is since buyers in Europe are increasingly refusing to buy Russian oil, trying to find a replacement for it.  This shift in priorities is visible in the sharp widening of the spread between Urals and Brent. Historically, and without various restrictions, the spread between these grades is $2-3 in favour of the lighter Brent. Now it is more than $17 as buyers are not chartering new shipments. Canada is refusing to buy Russian oil, and the UK (which is much more dependent on energy imports) is considering options for sanctions against the industry.  The European Parliament has passed a resolution calling for EU oil and gas imports restrictions. Thus, Russia has failed to fully benefit from higher prices, losing both in sales volumes and facing an actual fall in selling prices.  The potential for already announced measures destabilises the market, setting Russia up to start using energy or agricultural products as a retaliatory measure. While it is hard to imagine the world without Russian energy in the coming months - it will be as chaotic as the oil crisis in 1973, with the oil price soaring fourfold in six months of the embargo. We may see a smaller price jump but with much wider economic consequences. It is ironic that Europe and Western countries, in general, were helped by the Soviet Union. Now consumers are left to rely on the Middle East and its reserves.  Yesterday, Biden announced an agreed sale of 60m barrels to 30 countries. Still, the market reaction to these announcements indicates that the market was expecting more, and the announced volumes are not enough. It is hard to say the theoretical limit to oil's rise. The Brent price could surpass the 2012 highs of $128 in a matter of days or aim for a historical record of $147.
Indices attempt to recover as investors remain concerned over escalating conflict

Indices attempt to recover as investors remain concerned over escalating conflict

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 02.03.2022 13:28
US indices are set to start today’s session lower as the conflict in Ukraine threatens supply chains and drives commodity prices higher. During yesterday’s trading session, the S&P 500 dropped 1.55%, Dow Jones moved 1.76% lower and Nasdaq declined 1.59% while the Russell 2000 dropped 1.93%. Intense shelling of Kharkiv was reported overnight and Russian attacks on residential areas and civilian buildings are becoming more frequent while the west continues to evaluate an escalation of sanctions, some of which have led to Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, informing that it will be shutting its European market business as it is no longer able to supply liquidity to its units in Europe. Despite some important data expected from the US, including the ADP employment report as well as the FED chair Powell testifying in congress, investors remain focused on further headlines and developments from the ongoing conflict in eastern europe which is sending shockwaves across markets. While negotiations are set to continue between the opposing forces, it remains to be seen if these will manage to and provide some relief Oil prices reach record levels despite strategic petroleum reserve releaseConcerns over possible disruptions on the oil market are sending Brent prices to the sky as WTI reached the highest level since 2013. Brent OIL is trading almost 60% year-to-date higher and it may not be over as the geopolitical tensions escalate and more companies continue to exit their shares in Russian energy companies with some of the most notable being BP and Shell. The release of strategic petroleum reserve release did little to ease upward pressure and OPEC+ is unlikely to decide on a bigger than 400,000 barrel hike today while traders also await the EIA petroleum report from the US, which is set to show an increase of 2.8 MB, after yesterday's API report indicated a 6.1 MB inventory draw. Unless the geopolitical situation begins to ease, or there are some major developments which would allow a noticeable increase in supply to reach the markets from elsewhere, we could be seeing a continuation of this trend that will ultimately have cascading effects across most asset classes and on consumer prices which are all related to energy prices.
Rise Of Natural Gas Price (Dutch TTF) Is Incredible

Rise Of Natural Gas Price (Dutch TTF) Is Incredible

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 15:44
The energy market is very sensitive to fluctuations in supply and demand. For example, a 20% drop in demand in March-May 2020 took away 70% of the oil price at some point. Next, we saw the inverse relationship: a moderate production deficit (even with significant reserves in previous months) was enough to send oil prices to 8-year highs. The same applies to exchange prices for gas. At some point last year, they were approaching $2000 per 1,000 cubic meters, quickly falling back to 800. Today, its value exceeds $2200, and this is hardly the limit. With such sensitive energy prices, it is difficult to imagine a reliable model of how much prices can rise at a critical moment because Russia provides about 20% of oil supplies and 30% of gas to Europe. If we see a political decision (by the EU & US or Russia) or a business decision (if foreign partners refuse to buy energy from Russian companies due to the threat of sanctions), then we may see a complete cessation of oil and gas purchases and prices may repeatedly skyrocket, as was the case in 1973 with the OPEC oil embargo. However, under these conditions, a grey market will emerge, as in the case of Iran, which sold its oil at a deep discount to Asia, mostly to China. It is more likely that the West is set to phase out Russian energy, indirectly holding back investment in the industry and blocking access to technology. As a result, this will lead to a reduction in the share of the Russian Federation on the world stage. The current situation is accelerating long-term plans to redirect energy exports from Europe to China. However, these are projects that will begin to pay dividends only in a few years. Here and now, politics could turn into a price shock on a much larger scale than we have seen in the last 30 years. The scale of the current state of affairs is comparable to that of the 1970s.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Metaverse Tokens Sink After Holiday Crypto Rally

Crypto: On Thursday Morning Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Terra (LUNA) And AVAX Trades Lower Than At The Same Time The Day Before

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.03.2022 08:29
Bitcoin slowed down ahead of strong mid-February resistance at $45,000, which then turned the move down. The first cryptocurrency in recent days has not paid too much attention to stock indices, which rose on Wednesday. The technical picture continues to point to a break in the downtrend, although to confirm the reversal, the rate must first fix above 45K. It must be said that bitcoin trading volumes have increased markedly in the last week due to the events in Ukraine. On February 28th, immediately after the Bank of Russia asset freeze, BTC jumped by 11%, showing the highest growth in many months. Due to new sanctions, the Russians withdrew depreciating ruble assets and invested them in cryptocurrencies. In the EU, it was previously discussed that since Bitcoin and Ethereum use the Proof-of-Work consensus mechanism, which consumes a lot of electricity and has a negative impact on the environment, it's time to ban the mining of these cryptocurrencies. However, it was decided to abandon this idea following the new version of the bill on digital assets. Technically, Bitcoin slowed down on Wednesday after two days of active strengthening, and on Thursday morning, it rolled back to 43.1K, losing 2.2% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum is down 3.3% 0.6% in the same period. Leading altcoins from the top ten lose from 1% (Terra, XRP) to more than 5% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 2.5% to $1.09 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index is hovering around 43.1%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell 13 points to 29, once again ending up in the fear zone.
Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says

Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.03.2022 15:44
After the war-driven gold rally, oil is starting to outperform. History between these two has already shown that someone may suffer. Many suggest: gold miners.The precious metals corrected some of their gains yesterday, but overall, not much changed in them. However, quite a lot happened in crude oil, and in today’s analysis we’ll focus on what it implies for the precious metals market and, in particular – for mining stocks.As you may have noticed, crude oil shot up recently in a spectacular manner. This seems normal, as it’s a market with rather inflexible supply and demand, so disruptions in supply or threats thereof can impact the price in a substantial way. With Russia as one of the biggest crude oil producers, its invasion of Ukraine, and a number of sanctions imposed on the attacking country (some of them involving oil directly), it’s natural that crude oil reacts in a certain manner. The concern-based rally in gold is also understandable.However, the relationship between wars, concerns, and prices of assets is not as straightforward as “there’s a war, so gold and crude oil will go up.” In order to learn more about this relationship, let’s examine the most similar situation in recent history to the current one, when oil supplies were at stake.The war that I’m mentioning is the one between Iraq and the U.S. that started almost 20 years ago. Let’s see what happened in gold, oil, and gold stocks at that time.The most interesting thing is that when the war officially started, the above-mentioned markets were already after a decline. However, that’s not that odd, when one considers the fact that back then, the tensions were building for a long time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion.The point here, however, is that the markets rallied while the uncertainty and concerns were building up, and then declined when the situation was known and “stable.” I don’t mean that “war” was seen as stable, but rather that the outcome and how it affected the markets was rather obvious.The other point is the specific way in which all three markets reacted to the war and the timing thereof.Gold stocks rallied initially, but then were not that eager to follow gold higher, but that’s something that’s universal in the final stages of most rallies in the precious metals market. What’s most interesting here is that there was a time when crude oil rallied substantially, while gold was already declining.Let me emphasize that once again: gold topped first, and then it underperformed while crude oil continued to soar substantially.Fast forward to the current situation. What has happened recently?Gold moved above $1,970 (crude oil peaked at $100.54 at that time), and then it declined heavily. It’s now trying to move back to this intraday high, but it was not able to do so. At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading at about $1,930, while crude oil is trading at about $114.In other words, while gold declined by $30, crude oil rallied by about $14. That’s a repeat of what we saw in 2003!What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks.That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. The above doesn’t apply to silver as it’s a commodity, but it does apply to silver stocks.Back in 2004, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more.Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet.However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold.Investing and trading are difficult. If it was easy, most people would be making money – and they’re not. Right now, it’s most difficult to ignore the urge to “run for cover” if you physically don’t have to. The markets move on “buy the rumor and sell the fact.” This repeats over and over again in many (all?) markets, and we have direct analogies to similar situations in gold itself. Junior miners are likely to decline the most, also based on the massive declines that are likely to take place (in fact, they have already started) in the stock markets.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Is $50k A Possible Level For Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD)? ETH Decreases By 6.2%

Is $50k A Possible Level For Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD)? ETH Decreases By 6.2%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.03.2022 08:28
The momentum of pressure on the crypto market was due to the decline in stock indices, as the Fed gave signals of tightening policy. Technical factors also contributed to the negative dynamics - the inability to overcome the strong resistance of the 100-day moving average and mid-February highs around $45,000. Real Vision CEO Raul Pal believes that the dynamics of bitcoin against the backdrop of foreign political tensions in the world signals the onset of a bullish trend. According to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's leading independent financial institutions, BTC could reach $50,000 by the end of March. Billionaire investor Bill Miller said that the Russian authorities can use BTC as a reserve currency. Earlier, the US authorities called on crypto exchanges to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia did not begin to soften its attitude towards bitcoin against the backdrop of sanctions and still advocates a complete ban on the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is developing a correction, losing 4.5% over the past day to $41.4K. Methodical pressure on the first cryptocurrency was formed on Wednesday evening after a short break above $45K. Ethereum fell by 6.2%, other leading altcoins from the top ten sank from 2.8% (BNB) to 7.8% (Solana). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 3.7% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index sank 0.2 points to 42.9%. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index dropped another 6 points to 33 - fear.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Sentiment turns as the U.S. looks to regulate cryptos

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Sentiment turns as the U.S. looks to regulate cryptos

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.03.2022 16:07
Bitcoin price sees its gains being pared back a bit after more talks on regulatory crackdown out of U.S. on cryptocurrencies. Ethereum price slips further away from $3,018 after Powell's speech before Congress talked about regulating cryptocurrencies. XRP price sideways, awaiting a catalyst to go either way. Cryptocurrencies are facing some headwinds – whilst they have enjoyed more inflows of late as both Ukrainian and Russian inhabitants reverted to cryptocurrencies as an alternative means of payment to avoid sanctions – there are signs this loophole will soon be closed. During Biden's State of the Union speech the president asked for a crackdown on cryptocurrencies to close the escape route for wealthy Russians. FED chair Powell added fuel to the fire by saying that he would welcome further regulation to monitor and control cryptocurrencies better. The result is that these comments have triggered some nervousness in all significant cryptocurrency pairs. Bitcoin bulls are rejected at $44,088 with the risk of sliding back to $42,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a full paring back of the losses accumulated during the Russian invasion as cryptocurrencies saw renewed cash inflow from both Russians and Ukrainians looking for alternative means of payment after both central banks had put in cash withdrawal restrictions. As Bitcoin looked to be poised for another leg higher, both Biden and Powell created some headwinds by urging for more regulatory crackdown, as it is emerging that cryptocurrencies are undermining sanctions on Russia. With this renewed negative attention towards cryptocurrencies, investors are being quick to book profits and, in the process, are pushing BTC price action to the downside. BTC price saw an initial rejection at $45,261, a level which coincides with the low of December 17, and as such triggered some profit-taking. As profit-taking continues bulls are faced with another rejection at $44,088, a level that goes back to August 06. Below that, the search for support finds nothing until $41,756 or the psychological $42,000 level near the baseline of a bearish triangle we had marked up earlier. BTC/USD daily chart As more talks are underway, a breakthrough could still happen at any moment. If that happened, it would mean that bears would fail in their attempt to squeeze out bulls and get stopped out themselves once the price pierced through $44,088 to the upside. That move would even accelerate after shooting through $45,261, with a quick rally to $48,760 and, from there, positioning Bitcoin to pop back above $50,000 next week. Ethereum bulls are defending the 55-day SMA, but support is wearing thin Ethereum (ETH) price takes another step back today after more negative connotations from FED Chair Powell in the house hearing before Congress. Next to committing to more rate hikes, Powell also drilled down on cryptocurrencies and called them a risk that needs to be prioritised with regulations. That puts greater regulation for cryptocurrencies at the top of the congressional agenda – after Ukraine, and inland inflation had pushed that bullet point further down the list. For the moment, ETH sees bulls defending the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,880. Although it looks good to hold for now, in the past, the 55-day SMA has not built a solid reputation of being well respected. So expect a possible breach once the US session kicks in and Powell makes more negative comments on cryptocurrencies in his second day of congressional hearings, which will likely push ETH price below the 55-day SMA at $2,880, through the monthly pivot at $2,835, and down to a possible endpoint at around $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart As the situation in Russia further deteriorates with more sanctions on the shelf, residents will be forced even more to flee into cryptocurrencies to avoid any repercussions from the financial sanctions imposed. That would mean broad flux inflow throughout the coming days, with ETH price action popping above $3,018, and in the process breaking the double top of rejection from Tuesday and Wednesday. To the upside, that could see $3,391 for a test as the inflow will outweigh any bearish attempts from short sellers. XRP price testing monthly pivot to the downside as dollar strength weighs Ripple's (XRP) price is under pressure to the downside as bears are putting in their effort to break the new monthly pivot at $0.76. Bears are getting help from the other side of the asset pair by the dollar’s strength weighing on price action for a second consecutive day. With Ukraine's current tension and possible retaliation from Russia against the West, safe havens are broadly bid with the Greenback on the front foot and thus outpacing XRP’s valuation, resulting in a move lower. Expect XRP price to see an accelerated move once the monthly pivot at $0.76 gives way. With not much in the way, the road is open to drop to $0.62, with $0.70 and $0.68 as possible breaking off points where bears could see some profit-taking and attempts by bulls to halt the downturn. But the trifecta of the negative comments from both Biden and Powell joined with the safe-haven bid is too big of a force to withstand, making $0.62 almost inevitable in the coming hours or trading days. XRP/USD daily chart The only event that could turn this around is if a catalyst were to remove the safe-haven bid. That could come with a resolution of the current tension in Ukraine or surrender of the Russian army of some sort. In such an outcome, the safe-haven bid would evaporate, followed by a massive risk-on flow which would see XRP pop above $0.78 and rally to $0.88, taking out $0.84 along the way to the upside.
Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD consolidates just below $25.50 eyeing breakout to fresh multi-month highs

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD consolidates just below $25.50 eyeing breakout to fresh multi-month highs

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.03.2022 16:07
Silver is consolidating close to multi-month highs not far below $25.50 as markets remain intensely focused on the Ukraine conflict. Technicians have noted that spot silver prices have over the last few days formed an ascending triangle. Upcoming tier one US data releases (ISM Services on Thursday, NFP on Friday) will play second fiddle for geopolitics. Spot silver (XAG/USD) prices are consolidating close to multi-month highs with the $25.50 per troy ounce mark for now acting as resistance, but ongoing nervousness about the ongoing Ukraine conflict and its economic impact underpinning the safe-haven metal for now. At current levels in the $25.30s, spot silver trades broadly flat on the day, with focus for now on talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations in the hopes that some sort of ceasefire might be in the offing. Given maximalist demands still being made by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, demands which the Ukrainian government is very unlikely to accept, hopes that a broad ceasefire agreement can be reached are slim. That suggests no end in sight for the rally in the prices of commodities exported by Russia (oil, gas, various agricultural products and base metals), which will likely keep assets deemed as offering inflation protection in demand (like silver). Technicians have noted that spot silver prices have over the last few days formed an ascending triangle, a pattern that is more often than not indicative of a bullish breakout. Technical buying on a break above the $25.50 could dovetail nicely with the fundamentals if the Ukraine conflict continues to intensify and Western nations are expected to continue tightening the sanctions noose around Russia’s neck. Silver can move aggressively and some bulls likely have their sights set on mid-2021 highs in the $28.00 area. With focus so heavily on geopolitics, upcoming tier one US data releases (ISM Services PMI on Thursday and the official jobs report on Friday) and the second day of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Congress will take something of a back seat. Powell explained on Wednesday that current uncertainties regarding the impact of the Ukraine war would not deter the Fed from getting moving regarding removing policy stimulus. An expected strong jobs report on Friday should support this stance and probably won’t dent silver’s near-term appeal much.
Fighting Continues: Good for Ukraine... And Gold

Fighting Continues: Good for Ukraine... And Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 03.03.2022 16:10
  Kherson fell, but Ukrainians are still fighting fiercely. In the face of war, gold also shows courage – to move steadily up. The battle of Ukraine is still going on. Russian troops took control of Kherson, a city of about 300,000 in the south of Ukraine, but other main cities haven’t been captured yet. Ukrainian soldiers even managed to conduct some counter-offensive actions near the country’s capital. There is a large Russian column advancing on Kyiv, but its progress has been very slow over the last few days due to the staunch Ukrainian resistance and Russian forces’ problems with equipment, tactics, and supplies, including fuel and food. David is still bravely fighting Goliath! Of course, Russian forces still have an advantage and are progressing. However, the pace of the invasion is much slower than Vladimir Putin and his generals expected. The Ukrainians’ defense is much fiercer, while Russia’s losses are more severe. The Russian defense ministry admitted that 498 Russian soldiers have already been killed and 1,597 wounded, but the real number is probably much higher. Even if Russia takes control of other cities, it’s unclear whether it will be able to hold them. What’s more, although the West didn’t engage directly in the war, the response of the West was much stronger than Putin could probably have expected. The US and its allies supplied Ukraine with weapons and imposed severe sanctions against Putin and the Russian governing elite, as well as on Russia’s economy and financial system. For instance, the West decided to exclude several Russian banks from SWIFT and also to freeze most of Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserve assets. Additionally, many international companies are moving out of Russia or exporting their products to this country, adding to the economic pressure. The ruble plummeted, as the chart below shows.   Implications for Gold What does the ongoing war in Ukraine mean for the precious metals market? Well, the continuous heroic stance of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukrainian defenders is not only heating up the hearts of all freedom-lovers, but also gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has soared to about $1,930, the highest level since January 2021. As a reminder, until recently, gold was unable to surpass $1,800. Thus, the recent rally is noteworthy. The war is clearly boosting the safe-haven demand for gold. Another bullish driver is rising inflation. According to early estimates, euro area annual inflation soared from 5.1% in January to 5.8%, and the war is likely to add to the inflationary pressure due to rising energy prices. Both Brent and WTI oil prices have surged above $110 per barrel. Last but not least, I have to mention Powell’s appearance before Congress. In the prepared testimony, he said that the Fed would hike the federal funds rate this month, despite the war in Ukraine: Our monetary policy has been adapting to the evolving economic environment, and it will continue to do so. We have phased out our net asset purchases. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month. This sounds rather hawkish and, thus, bearish for gold. However, Powell acknowledged that the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The near-term effects on the U.S. economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain. Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. Hence, the war in Eastern Europe could make the Fed more dovish than expected at a time when inflation could be higher than forecasted before the war outbreak. Such an environment should be bullish for the gold market. However, there is one important caveat. The detailed analysis of gold prices shows that they declined around the first and second rounds of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats in anticipation of the end of the conflict. However, when it became apparent that the talks ended in a stalemate, gold resumed its upward move. The implication should be clear: as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine, but when the ceasefire or truce is agreed, we could see a correction in the gold market. It doesn’t have to be a great plunge, but a large part of the geopolitical premium will disappear. Having said that, the war may take a while. I pray that I’m wrong, but the slow progress of the Russian invasion could prompt Vladimir Putin to adopt a “whatever it takes” stance. According to some experts, he is already more emotional than usual, and when faced with the prospects of failure, he could become even more brutal or irrational. We already see that Russian troops, unable to break the Ukrainian defense in open combat, siege the cities and bomb civilians. Hence, the continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.03.2022 09:05
With a sharp decline over the weekend, Bitcoin wiped out the initial gains, gave away the positions to bears after the third straight week of gains. On Saturday and Sunday, there were drawdowns to $34K on the low-liquid market. So the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $38K with a 3.8% loss. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has reached $39,000 while Ethereum has lost 4.5%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten decline from 2% (XRP) to 6.8% (LUNA). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 3.8%, to $1.71 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index sank from 42.9% on Friday to 42.3% due to the sale of bitcoin over the weekend. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 23 now, remaining in a state of "extreme fear". Looking back, in the middle of the week, the index had a moment in the neutral position. The FxPro Analyst team mentioned that the sales were triggered by reports that the BTC.com pool banned the registration of Russian users. Cryptocurrencies do not remain aloof from politics, and they are weakly confirming the role of an alternative to the banking system now, supporting EU and US sanctions against Russia, and showing their own initiative. The news appeared that Switzerland would freeze the crypto assets of the Russians who fall under the sanctions. In the second half of the week, bitcoin lost almost all the growth against the backdrop of a decline in stock indices. Although, last week started on a positive wave: BTC added almost $8,000 (21%) since previous Monday, but couldn't overcome the strong resistance of mid-February highs at around $45,000 and the 100-day moving average. Speaking about the prospects, pressure on all risky assets will continue to be exerted by the situation around Ukraine, where hostilities have been taking place for two weeks. Worth mentioning that the world-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki said that the US is “destroying the dollar” and called for investing in gold and bitcoin. At the same time, the founder of the investment company SkyBridge Capital (Anthony Scaramucci) is confident that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2024. At the moment, he has invested about $1 billion in BTC. Plis, a group of American senators is developing a bill that opens access to the crypto market for institutional investors. And one more news to consider: the city of Lugano in Switzerland has recognized bitcoin and the leading stablecoin Tether (USDT) as legal tender.
(BRENT/WTI) Crude Oil Price - A Rocketship Keeps Accelerating

(BRENT/WTI) Crude Oil Price - A Rocketship Keeps Accelerating

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 07.03.2022 11:47
The Russian economy continues to be hit by increasing global sanctions as the conflict escalates between Russia and Ukraine and after recent news regarding a potential ban of russian imports from Europe and America has severely impacted the situation as the country continues to be more economically isolated and may have to search for alternative export destinations. While this news has led oil prices to reach the highest level since 2008 with brent spot approaching $140 per barrel, the russian economy continues to suffer from sanctions and with no end to the conflict in sight, we could see a continuation of this trend despite the talks of a nearing agreement on the Iran nuclear deal as well as potential for the US to revoke sanctions on Venezuela in an attempt to stabilize the energy market. While there seems to be a way to compensate for the Russian oil supply down the line, the situation remains dire for the time being and could lead to prices testing even higher levels as uncertainty across markets continues to grow. Halifax HPI shows fastest increase since 2007 House prices rose at the fastest annual pace since 2007 and reached a new record high according to today’s Halifax HPI report with monthly house price growth rising to +0.5% following a slower start to the year. While the annual rate of growth increased by +10.8% and reached the strongest level since June 2007, the impact on household finances is still expected to weigh on the market this year as rising inflation and increased costs could undermine the post pandemic economic recovery and slow down the housing market significantly as demand becomes severely impacted.
The Swing Overview - Week 9

The Swing Overview - Week 9

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.03.2022 20:22
The Swing Overview - Week 9 The war in Ukraine continues, and although we all want this tragic event to be ended immediately, but unfortunately, according to last statements of Russian officials, it looks like the war will drag on for a longer period of time. Investors have reacted to this development by selling risk assets, including the Czech koruna. Stock indices are losing ground and the DAX in particular has been under heavy pressure. On the other hand, commodities such as oil, gold, and coal are strengthening strongly. Somewhat surprising is the development in the Australian dollar, which usually weakens in the events of geopolitical uncertainties. However, there is a reason for its current rise. More on this in our article. Conflict in Ukraine   Vladimir Putin probably did not expect to encounter such a brave resistance from Ukraine and that  almost the whole world would send Russia into isolation through significant sanctions. The list of companies and actions that have cut ties with Russia is growing day by the day and Western companies are leaving Russia. Thus, for Russians, foreign goods (food, clothing, furniture, electronics, cars) will gradually become very rare. Probably the strongest sanction that Russia has felt so far, was the freeze of the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves. In response, the Russian ruble began to depreciate significantly on February 28, 2022, and has already lost more than 30% of its pre-invasion value. In response, the Russian Central Bank intervened by raising the interest rate to 20%, which temporarily halted the ruble's fall.    Figure 1: The Russian ruble paired with the USD and the euro Meanwhile, Western countries have not exhausted all options to stop Russia in this war through economic sanctions in case of further escalation of the conflict yet. The fact that European countries might stop taking Russian gas is also at stake. This would, of course, have a very significant impact on the entire European economy. However, these are still just some economic losses, which can not be   compared at all with the losses of lives experienced by the unprecedentedly attacked Ukraine. In any case, this crisis seems to have the potential to surpass in its consequences the crisis that occurred in Russia in 1998, which led to inflation exceeding 80% and central bank interest rates reaching 150%.   Data from the US economy The ISM manufacturing sentiment indicator for February came in at 58.6 which is better than expected and points to an optimistic development of the US economy. In the labour market sector, the ADP (non-farm job change) indicator was reported, which showed that 475 thousand jobs were created in America in February (compared to 509 thousand in January). The number of unemployment claims reached 215 thousand last week, which was less than expected 226 thousand. Thus, the data show that the US economy is doing well so far and the US Fed is going to raise interest rates at its next meeting on March 16, 2022. Jerome Powell said that he would support a 0.25% rate hike. Powell also said that the war in Ukraine means significant uncertainty for monetary policy.   The US dollar and bond yields The US dollar continues to strengthen, as the USD index shows. In addition to the expected US interest rate hike, the US dollar bullishness is explained by demand for US government bonds in times of uncertainty. Demand for these bonds then pushes down their yields, which continue to fall. Figure 2: 10-year government bond yield on the 4H chart and USD index on the daily chart Index SP500 The US SP 500 index moved in a consolidation range last week. This shows that investors have so far viewed the conflict in Ukraine as an event that is more or less a regional event and therefore saw cheap stocks as a buying opportunity.  However, the sanctions adopted by Western countries will of course also have an impact on the global economy, especially if the conflict deepens further. This concern was then reflected at the end of the week when the index started to weaken. Figure 3: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   Resistance according to the H4 chart is in the region of around 4,410 - 4,420. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 4255 - 4284. Significant support is at 4,100 - 4,113. German DAX index In contrast to the SP 500 index, there was a big sell-off in the DAX, showing that investors are worried, among other things, that a further escalation of the conflict could lead to a disruption in the supply of Russian gas, on which Germany is heavily dependent.  According to the daily chart, it looks like the DAX index is now in free fall and is breaking through support barriers as if they did not exist. It looks like the market is starting to show signs of panic selling by inexperienced investors.  If you are speculating in the short term, then bear in mind that short term speculation against such a strong downtrend is very disadvantageous and risky.   Figure 4: DAX on H4 and daily chart     Current resistance is in the area of 13,655 - 13,756. The price is now at support at 13,400, which is already slightly broken, but the closing of the whole session will be crucial. The next support is then at 13 000 - 13 100.   The Czech koruna is losing significantly The Czech koruna has long benefited from the interest rate differential, which has been very favourable for the koruna against the euro and has been the reason why the koruna has appreciated strongly since November 2021. But the Czech koruna, along with other Central European currencies, is a currency that is losing ground heavily in the current conflict.   Figure 5: The EURCZK on the daily chart   Firstly, there is the concern that the Czech Republic is geographically quite close to Ukraine, even though the Czech Republic does not have very significant exports directly with Ukraine nor Russia (in total, around 3% of total Czech exports). At the same time, there is concern about the Czech Republic's dependence on Russian gas. If the taps are closed, then the koruna could shoot above  CZK 27 per euro. Currently, the EURCZK pair is trading at the resistance level of 25. 80 - 25.90.   The Australian dollar The Australian dollar is a currency that tends to weaken during major global crises. In particular, the AUDJPY pair is correlated with the SP 500 index in the short term. Currently, however, the Australian dollar is strengthening.  This is because the Australian economy is export-oriented and exports commodities such as gold, iron ore, coal and gas.  All these commodities are now in high demand. Europe, for example, is realising that dependence on Russian gas is not paying off and is looking for alternatives. A temporary solution will be to rebuild coal-fired power stations. Germany and Italy have already started to buy coal stocks, which are therefore appreciating strongly. As a result, the price of coal has sky-rocketed, with one tonne reaching a record price of the USD 400. Figure 6: The coal price   The gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, is also strengthening. The gold has also been helped by a fall in US bond yields.   Figure 7: The gold on H4 and D1 charts   In terms of technical analysis, the gold stopped at the resistance of $1,973 per ounce. The nearest support according to the daily chart is  $1,870 - 1,878 per ounce. The rise in commodity prices then resulted in the strengthening of the Australian dollar.     Figure 8: The AUDJPY currency pair on D1 chart   The AUDJPY broke the resistance in the range of 0.8400 - 0.8420, which became the new support. The next resistance is then at the level of 85.90 - 86.20.  
Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 07.03.2022 22:18
Now is the time for traders to adapt to higher volatility and rapidly changing market conditions. One of the best ways to do this is to monitor different asset classes and track which investments are gaining and losing money flow. Knowing what the Best Asset Now is (BAN) is critical for consistent growth no matter the market condition.With that said, buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat, for example, gained more than 40% last week.‘Panic Commodity Buying’ in Wheat – Weekly ChartAccording to the US Dept. of Agriculture, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of rice and 51% of wheat by mid-2022.Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Global commodities, commodity funds, and commodity ETFs are attracting huge capital inflows as investors seek to cash in on the rally in oil, metals, and grains.How does the Russia – Ukraine war affect global food supplies?The conflict between major commodity producers Russia and Ukraine is causing countries that rely heavily on commodity imports to feed their citizens to enter into panic buying. The breadbaskets of Ukraine and Russia account for more than 25% of the global wheat trade and nearly 20% of the global corn trade.Last week, it was reported that many countries have dangerously low grain supplies. Nader Saad, an Egypt Cabinet spokesman, has raised the alarm that currently, Egypt has only nine months’ worth of wheat in silos. The supply includes five months of strategic reserves and four months of domestic production to cover the bread needs of 102 million Egyptians. Additionally, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s economic minister, said on Thursday (3/3/22) that his country should keep “a low profile” regarding the conflict in eastern Europe, given that Israel imports 50 percent of its wheat from Russia and 30 percent from Ukraine.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The longer-term potential for much higher grain prices exists, but it’s worth noting that Friday’s close of nearly $12.00 a bushel for wheat is not that far away from the all-time record high of $13.30, recorded 14-years ago. According to Trading Economics, wheat has gone up 75.08% year-to-date while other commodity markets like Oats are up a whopping 85.13%, Coffee 74.68%, and Corn 34.07%.How are other markets reacting to these global events?Year-to-date comparison returns as of 3/4/2022:-9.18% S&P 500 (index), -7.49% DJI (index), -15.21% Nasdaq (index), +37.44% Exxon Mobile (oil), +20.08% Freeport McMoran (copper & gold), -20.68% Tesla (alternative energy), -24.49% Microstrategy (bitcoin play), -40.51% Meta-Facebook (social media)As stock holdings and 401k’s are shrinking it may be time to re-evaluate your portfolio. There are ETFs available that can give you exposure to commodities, energy, and metals.Here is an example of a few of these ETFs:+53.81% WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund+41.79% GSG iShares S&P TSCI Commodity -Indexed Trust+104.40 UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil+59.32% PALL Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium SharesHow is the global investor reacting to rocketing commodity prices and increasing market volatility?We can track global money flow by monitoring the following 1-month currency graph (www.finviz.com). The Australian Dollar is up +4.25%, the New Zealand Dollar +3.72%, and the Canadian Dollar +0.30% vs. the US Dollar due to the rising commodity prices like metals and energy. These country currencies are known as commodity currencies.The Switzerland Franc +0.96%, the Japanese Yen +0.35%, and the US Dollar +0.00% are all benefiting from global capital seeking a safe haven. As volatility continues to spike, these country currencies will experience more inflows as capital comes out of depreciating assets and seeks stability.We also notice that capital outflow is occurring from the European Union-Eurodollar -4.55% and the British Pound -2.22% due to their close proximity (risk) to the Russia - Ukraine war.www.finviz.comGlobal central banks will need to begin raising their interest rates to combat high inflation!Due to the rapid acceleration of inflation, the US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting two weeks from now. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16.What strategies can help you navigate current market trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals are starting to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Will The Conflict Between Russia And Ukraine Maintain The Rise Crude Oil Prices?

Will The Conflict Between Russia And Ukraine Maintain The Rise Crude Oil Prices?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.03.2022 12:18
Brent oil is trading near $125 - in the 2011 and 2012 highs area. The market continues to receive pretty bullish comments from politicians and officials. However, traders seemed set to pause to digest current price levels after a frightening rally to $129 at one point on Monday, reacting to reports that the US and allies are weighing a ban on Russian oil and gas imports. In Russia, Novak (a former energy minister and co-founder of OPEC+ deals) points out that the oil embargo will push prices into the $300 a barrel area. Probably, this forecast is based on a comparison of the current situation with the OPEC embargo in late 1972, when the price soared 3-4 times within a few weeks. The International Energy Agency's executive director said the Oil can still move higher from current levels. Officially, Russia is not refusing to export Oil and Gas, but local companies have recently failed to sell Oil because of a buyers' boycott or fears of being hit by US and EU sanctions. Shell's just-announced refusal to buy all Russian Oil is doing little to bring down the commodity price. With this news backdrop, Oil is getting support on the downside in the $115 area, where last week's highs were located. It will take a lot more political will to reverse the trend in Oil. Also, the chances of Oil from Iran to make up for the drop-offs are somewhat thawed, as the president has said that Tehran will not give up its red lines. Iran would logically be expected to use the situation to bargain for better terms on a deal with the West. The same applies to Venezuela, where US representatives have headed to secure a rise in global production. Will the countries previously most disadvantaged by US sanctions use the momentum to ramp up production? That question is not yet answered. Likely, we should expect price rises to accelerate in the coming days before the situation reverses into a constructive direction and prices head for a correction.
It's Not Only About Price Of Gold. Palladium Price, Gold (XAUUSD) And Copper Price In Times Of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

It's Not Only About Price Of Gold. Palladium Price, Gold (XAUUSD) And Copper Price In Times Of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.03.2022 12:16
While the world discusses the prospect of an embargo on Russian oil and gas, the absolute madness is in metals. In many of them, Russia has a pretty significant share, and investors fear a ban on exports could be Russia’s response to sanctions, on a par with restricting supplies of agricultural products. Palladium set a new all-time high at $3439 on Monday, gaining 14.8% on the day at one point. Nickel reached $100,000/tonne, gaining more than 200% over the two days, but soon retreated to $82,000 (+71% since the start of the day). Aluminum reached $4000 per tonne on Monday, compared with stabilization at $2600 from November to mid-December. Copper exceeded $10800/tonne yesterday, rewriting its historic high. Still, if we apply ‘peacetime’ patterns, we can see short-squeezes and a final capitulation by the bears in one metal after another. A reversal usually follows this. Copper and palladium have been sliding hard after making new all-time highs, and we’re now seeing a distinct tug-of-war between the buyers and the sellers, at an impressive distance from yesterday’s extremes. Nickel is retracing a sharp bounce today. The troy ounce reached $2020 earlier on Tuesday, having hit new highs since August 2020. The momentum in gold gained new strength after restrictions from cryptocurrency exchanges for Russian residents. But here, too, it is worth betting with great caution on the upside, as there will be a big seller entering the market. The Bank of Russia, for the most part, has no other means but to sell off the gold from its reserves in Russia. These steps could be taken tomorrow, as Monday and Tuesday were national holidays. Those actions will keep the price of gold on the way to the all-time highs near $2075, where it could be as early as this week. However, the chances are higher that more sellers will enter into gold, which will cool the current rally, temporarily correcting the price into the $1960-2000 area before the end of March.
Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold

Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 08.03.2022 17:37
  Russian forces have made minimal progress against Ukraine in recent days. Unlike the invader, gold rallied very quickly and achieved its long-awaited target - $2000! Nobody expected the Russian inquisition! Nobody expected such a fierce Ukrainian defense, either. Of course, the situation is still very dramatic. Russian troops continued their offensive and – although the pace slowed down considerably – they managed to make some progress, especially in southern Ukraine, by bolstering air defense and supplies. The invaders are probably preparing for the decisive assault on Kyiv. Where Russian soldiers can’t break the defense, they bomb civilian infrastructure and attack ordinary people, including targeting evacuation corridors, to spread terror. Several Ukrainian cities are besieged and their inhabitants lack basic necessities. The humanitarian crisis intensifies. However, Russian forces made minimal ground advances over recent days, and it’s highly unlikely that Russia has successfully achieved its planned objectives to date. According to the Pentagon, nearly all of the Russian troops that were amassed on Ukraine’s border are already fighting inside the country. Meanwhile, the international legion was formed and started its fight for Ukraine. Moreover, Western countries have recently supplied Ukraine with many hi-tech military arms and equipment, including helicopters, anti-tank weapons, and anti-aircraft missiles, which could be crucial in boosting the Ukrainian defense.   Implications for Gold What does the war in Ukraine imply for the precious metals? Well, gold is shining almost as brightly as the Ukrainian defense. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has surged above $1,980 on Monday (March 7, 2022), the highest level since August 2020. What’s more, as the next chart shows, during today’s early trading, gold has soared above $2,020 for a while, reaching almost an all-time high. In my most recent report, I wrote: “as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine (…). The continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices.” This is exactly what we’ve been observing. This is not surprising. The war has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, while investors have become more risk-averse and have continued selling equities. As you can see in the chart below, the S&P 500 Index has plunged more than 12% since its peak in early January. Some of the released funds went to the gold market. What’s more, the credit spreads have widened, while the real interest rates have declined. Both these trends are fundamentally positive for the yellow metal. Another bullish driver of gold prices is inflation. It’s already high, and the war in Ukraine will only add to the upward pressure. The oil price has jumped above $120 per barrel, almost reaching a record peak. Higher energy prices would translate into higher CPI readings in the near future. Other commodities are also surging. For example, the Food Price Index calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has soared above 140 in February, which is a new all-time high, as the chart below shows. Higher commodity prices could lead to social unrest, as was the case with the Arab Spring or recent protests in Kazakhstan. Higher energy prices and inflation imply slower real GDP growth and more stagflationary conditions. As a reminder, in 2008 we saw rapidly rising commodities, which probably contributed to the Great Recession. In such an environment, it’s far from clear that the Fed will be very hawkish. It will probably hike the federal funds rate in March, as expected, but it may soften its stance later amid the conflict between Ukraine and the West with Russia and elevated geopolitical risks. The more dovish Fed should also be supportive of gold prices. However, when the fighting cools off, the fear will subside, and we could see a correction in the gold market. Both sides are exhausted by the conflict and don’t want to continue it forever. The Russian side has already softened its stance a bit during the most recent round of negotiations, as it probably realized that a military breakthrough was unlikely. Hence, when the conflict ends, gold’s current tailwind could turn into a headwind. Having said that, the impact of the conflict may not be as short-lived this time. I'm referring to the relatively harsh sanctions and high energy prices that may last for some time after the war is over. . The same applies to a more hawkish stance toward Russia and European governments’ actions to become less dependent on Russian gas and oil. A lot depends on how the conflict will be resolved, and whether it brings us Cold War 2.0. However, two things are certain: the world has already changed geopolitically, and at the beginning of this new era, the fundamental outlook for gold has turned more bullish than before the war. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Increased By 8.7%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up By 7.9%, XRP Has Added 3.3%, Terra +21%

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Increased By 8.7%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up By 7.9%, XRP Has Added 3.3%, Terra +21%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 08:43
The last bitcoin growth impulse confirmed the break of the downtrend: the chart confidently rebounded from the former upper limit of the downtrend trading range. However, as before in March, a consolidation above the previous highs in the area of $45K is required to confirm a break in the trend. As Ethereum dropped to a 10-day low, traders started buying put options in anticipation of the second cryptocurrency falling to $2,200. On March 14, the European Parliament will approve the final version of the bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies without wording that could be interpreted as a potential ban on bitcoin mining. US President Biden will also sign an executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies this week. The focus may be on tracking transactions and preventing circumvention of US sanctions. The cost of bitcoin in rubles has updated its historical highs, exceeding 5 million rubles. Bitcoin was not so expensive even in April and November 2021, when its price in dollars exceeded $60,000. In general, the benchmark cryptocurrency has jumped by 8.7% over the past day, to 41,450. Ethereum has added 7.9% over the same time, while other leading altcoins from the top ten show growth from 3.3% (XRP) to 21% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 6.9% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The dominance index jumped to 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 1 point to 22, remaining in "extreme fear" territory.Bitcoin was bought on the decline to $38K, and the move to $40K on Wednesday morning caused a surge in buying, probably associated with the closing of part of the short positions, quickly bringing the rate to current values.
Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:23
The Russian rouble remains under pressure, while all the new controls on currency transactions in Russia are alienating the exchange rate at home and on global FX. The 12% commission on currency purchases explains the difference between the external and domestic exchange rates. That said, one must realise that "catching the bottom" of the ruble is hardly wise when new sanctions are imposed almost on a daily basis. The economic landslide continues with extreme speed. Across the other EM markets, there is a concern or even pessimism about the medium-term outlook, and some relative easing of the fear level is striking in the stock markets today. Commodity markets, which continued their move towards new extremes yesterday, have encountered substantial selling, which continues today. Some reduction in the excitement can be attributed to hopes of progress towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Nevertheless, the conditions already prevailing in commodity markets are putting serious pressure on EM equities and currencies. EM populations are more vulnerable to soaring basic food and energy prices and currencies to capital outflows due to flight to safety. All of this is tightening financial conditions is undermining the economic recovery that investors had hoped for at the start of the year because of the retreat of the pandemic. While the end of last year and the beginning of this one were sentiments that growth momentum was shifting from the US to Europe and emerging markets, events in recent weeks have not only returned EM markets to the downward trend but again show that US markets are the best refuge for capital. For example, Chinese indices are losing 35% (Hang Seng) to 43% (China H-star) from their February 2021 peak. And this trend will not quickly reverse even if the military conflict in Eastern Europe ends right now because economic and reputational damage has already been done, which will take months or even years to undo.
Crude Oil may have played its game

Crude Oil may have played its game

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:33
A barrel of Oil on the spot market briefly topped $130 for Brent and $125 for WTI, having retreated to $127 and $121, respectively, by the start of European trading. Oil received its latest boost on expectations that the US will announce an embargo on Russian energy imports. Traders took short-term profits on Biden's speech, which kept Oil from rising further. On the sellers' side was also news that the UK was unable to repeat the US move and is instead set to halt energy imports from Russia before the end of the year. Biden also noted that many European countries would not be able to stop buying Russian Oil and Gas any time soon because of their heavy reliance on them.The latest comments have somewhat dampened pressure on the Oil price, as have earlier International Energy Agency calculations on ways to reduce Europe's energy consumption from Russia by up to 80% as early as this year. Such plans often over-idealise the possibility of a coordinated effort, but their mere appearance has a stabilising effect on the market. For its part, Russia has also worked to prove its role as a reliable energy supplier, loading Crude Oil at ports in line with the schedule.Nevertheless, markets continue to face an increased risk premium, and Russian Oil struggles to find new buyers. The UAE and Saudi Arabia try to use the situation to their advantage, refusing to cooperate with the US to increase oil supplies. Iran is haggling for more favourable terms on the nuclear deal. Russia, the architect of the deal, has suddenly become an obstacle to it, demanding legal guarantees from the US that sanctions will not affect Russian-Iranian trade, thereby trying to thwart the US attempts to increase oil supply in countries where US sanctions limit production.We would venture to guess that all existing conditions are already built into the Oil quotes, and its price is now near a ceiling for the coming weeks and months. From here, we could see the establishment of a fairly broad corridor of $95-130 per barrel for Brent for the foreseeable future. This is a vast range, reflecting the outlook's persistence of extreme volatility and extreme uncertainty.
How Will The Next Events Around Russia-Ukraine Conflict Affect Markets?

How Will The Next Events Around Russia-Ukraine Conflict Affect Markets?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.03.2022 16:19
Russia's denial of wanting to overthrow Ukraine's government has boosted the market mood. Ongoing bombing, accusations of using biological weapons may come to haunt markets. The safe-haven dollar and gold have room to recover after the recent slide. All markets are saying, is give peace a chance – paraphrasing John Lennon's song, that is what is going on, with stocks and risk currencies rising while safe-haven assets are tumbling down. However, it may become worse before it becomes better. The latest bout of optimism stems from Russia's statement that it does not seek to overthrow Ukraine's government and its preference to resolve differences via discussions. The Kremlin added that it has never threatened and does not threaten NATO. These olive branches join Tuesday's news that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled he is willing to give up NATO membership and the upcoming meeting of the two countries foreign ministers planned for Thursday in Turkey. On the ground, a humanitarian ceasefire is in effect in several Ukrainian cities on Wednesday, and civilians are begin evacuated, so far safely. Markets have reacted positively to these developments, with S&P futures jumping by 2%, EUR/USD jumping by some 80 pips, and safe havens such as gold and the dollar suffering significant falls. Is the war nearing its end? Not so fast. Reasons to worry First, Russia continues bombing Kyiv and is likely using this day of relative calm to regroup and resupply its troops, which have suffered massive logistical failures. Several of the previous ceasefires were not respected and this may happen again. Secondly, Russia's statements are also one that the US has declared economic war on it. Such comments contradict the better vibes that have previously boosted the market mood. Russia also accuses its enemy of developing biological weapons, in what seems like an excuse to intensify attacks. Third, Ukrainian President Zelensky called on Russian troops to "surrender while you still can" and that "we will answer in full for all our killed people" – militant statements are not exclusive to one side. The war will eventually end, hopefully, sooner rather than later. However, it seems overoptimistic to circle Wednesday as the beginning of the end, and that everything improves from here. Another escalation may come shortly, souring the market mood and boosting the safe-haven gold and dollar. Moreover, with every day that passes, the damage to the global economy increases. While shortages of energy have yet to be seen – prices are rising without any stop in the flow of oil or gas – food issues may become a burden for the global economy. Russia and Ukraine produce a vast amount of wheat and barley, which are now blocked. That is already raising food prices. And while the war continues, so do new Western sanctions. The EU has approved a new list of restrictions on Russian leaders and oligarchs, and also disconnect several Belarusian banks from the SWIFT payments system. All in all, it will likely get worse before it becomes better and that means another rush to the dollar and gold.
Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 08:33
Bitcoin soared 8.8% on Wednesday, ending the day around $41.9K. Apparently, the benchmark cryptocurrency experienced clear problems with growth above $42K. On Thursday morning we see an equally strong reversal move back to $39K. As a result, Bitcoin lost 5.6% in 24hours Ethereum - 4.8%, other leading altcoins from the top ten are declining from 1% (Terra) to 7.2% (Avalanche).According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 4.5% over the day, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index dropped from 43.0% to 42.7%.The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added 6 points to 28, climbing into “fear” territory.Bitcoin's growth momentum was also supported by the positive dynamics of stock indices, however, on Thursday morning, the positive pull on them remains in contrast to the sell-off of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin jumped when a statement by Janet Yellen appeared on the website of the US Department of the Treasury, which does not contain strict measures to control the field of cryptocurrencies. The statement was posted, probably prematurely, and then quickly removed from the site.Later on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden signed the first executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies in the country. The document contained only the most general provisions, such as consumer protection, financial stability, technology development and the illegal use of cryptocurrencies. More specific measures in the field of control over the digital asset market will be developed by individual federal departments. In our opinion, the States are making it clear that they will not allow cryptocurrencies to become a shadow business and be used to circumvent sanctions, taxes, money laundering and similar things. Such control is more difficult to implement than with centrally issued fiat money.    
Crude Oil (BRENT) Price Plunges As There's A Chance Of Support

Crude Oil (BRENT) Price Plunges As There's A Chance Of Support

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 09:54
Brent crude experienced its biggest intraday decline yesterday, losing more than $17 on the day to $110, with the range of movements on the spot market exceeding $26.The momentum of the decline was triggered by Blinken's (US Secretary of State) reports that the UAE was ready to ramp up its production, replacing Oil from Russia and stabilising the market. UAE officials soon said they remained committed to the current agreements. But this did not help Oil, which stabilised near levels a week ago. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have significant spare capacity to restore their production to pre-demand levels and even increase their global market share. At the same time, most OPEC representatives are not fully committed to their quotas. Iran and Venezuela have more options. Both countries are trying to use the situation to ease US sanctions pressure. Iran produces 2.3 million barrels per day, about half of pre-sanctions levels. Venezuela's production is around 0.8m BPD versus 3.1m BPD before the 2019 sanctions. Both countries can get 0.4m b/d back on the market quickly, but it will take a significant investment in the industry and a long time to grow after that. Caracas is already curtseying towards the US by releasing two prisoners. The US is lifting some sanctions on some Iranian politicians even before the deal is struck. These are signs of progress towards easing sanctions and a clear signal to Russia that the world is not so dependent on its energy. These are all signs favouring our idea that the peak of fear, and therefore oil prices, is over. Furthermore, Russia has not yet even gone so far as to threaten to halt exports as OPEC did in 1972. That said, military tensions and further restrictions on Russian oil and gas imports could trigger growth impulses, some of which could be strong. However, the oil price situation looks depleted. We are set to see either a consolidation around these levels in a pessimistic war scenario, or a correction to around $90 on progress in the peace talks and the start of a move to ease sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
ECB Analysis: EUR/USD selling opportunity? Taper helps with inflation, full war shock still to come

ECB Analysis: EUR/USD selling opportunity? Taper helps with inflation, full war shock still to come

FXStreet News FXStreet News 10.03.2022 16:14
The ECB has announced a quick phasing out of bond buys, boosting the euro.Shoring up the currency helps the eurozone in the short term.The full impact of Russia's Ukraine invasion is still to come.ECB may refrain from rate hikes in 2022, bringing the euro down.Influenced by inflation, (almost) ignoring the war – the European Central Bank has announced a fast pace of tapering its bond-buying scheme as prices rise and despite the adverse effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. EUR/USD has jumped, but it may be premature. The ECB plans to buy some €40 billion worth of bonds in April, falling to €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June. That opens the door to raising interest rates already in the summer rather than in the autumn. While that would not be considered surprising after the previous decision, it seems hawkish given the war. After two weeks of fighting, the Frankfurt-based institution seems to focus on the surge in commodity prices coming from Russian President Vladimir Putin's "special operation." Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer and some 40% of European natural gas is sent on orders from Moscow. Ukraine and Russia are responsible for a substantial portion of global wheat exports, and port blockades are already felt in supermarkets.However, Russia's atrocities in a European country are pushing prices higher and destroying demand. A war on the doorstep of the eurozone is hitting confidence and also leaving consumers with less money to spend. Even if headline inflation rises, underlying prices may fall.ECB President Christine Lagarde promised decisions based on new forecasts presented in March, but these new projections may remain slient while the cannons are heard. The taper announcement serves to push the euro higher and somewhat squeeze the prices hikes coming from imports. However, that is nothing in comparison to the economic damage done by the war and the sanctions, and that may eventually haunt the common currency. It may come sooner than later, providing a selling-opportunity on EUR/USD now.
These Releases Can Affect Dollar Index - Fed Releases Interest Rate Decision And EIA Presents Crude Oil Inventories

These Releases Can Affect Dollar Index - Fed Releases Interest Rate Decision And EIA Presents Crude Oil Inventories

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 11.03.2022 16:37
In the following week: Great Britain, Germany, USA, Canada, Australia, Japan, Russia… - these countries have their economic indicators presented. What’s mostly interesting? Tuesday Australia and China At 0.30 a.m. RBA Release Meeting Minutes, At 2 a.m. Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) goes public. Great Britain In the morning, five hours later, British Average Earnings Index +Bonus is presented. Previously it amounted to 4.3%. At the same time (7 a.m.) Claimant Count Change is released. Would it increase? Germany Germans will sleep a bit longer – ZEW Economic Sentiment is released at 10 a.m. and previously amounted to 54.3 USA The awaited release of the day is US PPI (MoM), which previously hit 1.0% Wednesday USA Wednesday is a kind of continuation of the Tuesday’s afternoon as the whole day is full of US releases. We begin with Core Retail Sales (MoM) (3.3%) followed by Retail Sales (MoM) (3.8%) and Crude Oil Inventories. In the evening Fed will finally publish Interest Rate Decision, which previously hit 0.25%. Canada and New Zealand Canadian Core CPI is released at 12:30 p.m. New Zealand’s GDP goes public late in the afternoon. Thursday Australia and Great Britain At 0:30 a.m. Australians get to know Employment Change (12.9K). In the midday BoE releases its Interest Rate Decision – previous one amounted to 0.50% The EU and the USA On Thursday European Markets investors should follow ECB President Lagarde testimony and release of EU CPI (YoY) (prev. 5.8%) What to follow in the USA? Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims And Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Friday Japan As monetary policy are released around the world in the following week, BoJ presents its Statement as well. Russia It’s interesting what will be the Interest Rate of Russian Central Bank as it remains conflicted with Ukraine and sanctions affect the country’s economy Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) and US Existing Home Sales are latter indicators to be showed the following week. Source: Investing.com Time: GMT
Blockchain Gaming - Where NFT, RPG And Layer 2 Meet

Apple Co-Founder Speaks Of The Future Of Bitcoin Price

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.03.2022 08:42
Bitcoin has decreased over the past week by 0.9%, ending it at around $38,700. Yesterday, the decline continued, bringing the price to 38500. Ethereum lost 0.7% in 24 hours and added 1.5% in a week. Other leading altcoins from the top ten show mixed dynamics over 24 hours: from a decline of 3.8% (XRP) to a rise of 3.3% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 14% in 24 hours, to $1.72 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell 0.1% to 42.4%. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that the Cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 2 points in a day to 23 and remains in "extreme fear" condition. In the first half of the past week, the first cryptocurrency tried to strengthen, testing five-day highs near $42,600. Later, BTC lost all gains, again being thrown back to support near $38,000. Pressure on all risky assets continues to be exerted due to the situation in Ukraine. One of the Apple founders, Steve Wozniak, said that bitcoin would reach $100,000, which will be facilitated by the general interest in cryptocurrency. At the same time, he has a negative attitude towards altcoins and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has again rejected applications from the NYSE Arca and Cboe BZX Exchanges to create spot bitcoin ETFs due to non-compliance with US exchange law. El Salvador has announced that it will postpone the issuance of bonds in bitcoins in connection with the events in Eastern Europe. The received funds were planned to be used for the construction of the "Bitcoin City". Visiting the UAE, Russians massively sell cryptocurrency for billions of dollars. Earlier, FBI Director Christopher Wray emphasized that the United States has vast experience in tracking cryptocurrencies, and Russia will not be able to use them to circumvent sanctions.  
The Swing Overview – Week 10 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 10 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 14.03.2022 15:05
The Swing Overview – Week 10 The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than two weeks and there is no end in sight. However, the markets seem to have started to adapt to the new situation and the decline in the indices has stopped. Meanwhile, inflation in the Czech Republic rose to 11.1% and the ECB left rates unchanged as expected. There is extreme volatility in oil. After reaching 2008 price levels there has been a larger correction. The conflict in Ukraine   The high-profile meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Kuleba did not bring a solution to end the war.  Russia continues to expect Ukraine to recognise Crimea as part of Russia, to recognise the independence of republics declared by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, and not to join NATO. Kuleba commented that Ukraine will not surrender. So, unfortunately, the war continues.   The sanctions, which have caused the Russian economy a shock and which are being extended, should help to end the war. The US announced that it stopped taking Russian oil. However, European leaders have not agreed to stop taking Russian energy because of their current dependence on it. As a lesson from this war, the EU is preparing a plan to stop taking Russian gas by 2027.   Meanwhile, the markets have calmed down a bit and although a resolution to the conflict is nowhere in sight, the markets seem to have come to accept the war as a regional issue that will have a negative but limited impact on global economic growth. This can be seen in US 10-year bond rates, which have started to rise again.   Figure 1: 10-year government bond yield on the 4H chart and USD index on the daily chart   The US inflation at highest levels in 40 years Annual inflation in the US for February was 7.9%, the highest since January 1982. The biggest contributor to inflation is energy, which saw inflation reaching 25.6%, while gasoline prices were up 38%. These figures do not include recent developments in Europe. Continued supply-side logistics problems and strong demand, together with a tight labour market mean that higher inflation will last for a longer period. Figure 2: The inflation in the US   Next week, the US Fed will meet to respond to rising inflation. Interest rates are generally expected to rise by at least 0.25%.    The SP500 index Long-term investors in the SP 500 index track an indicator of the number of companies whose stock prices are above the 50-day average. Figure 3: The SP 500 Index and an indicator of the number of companies in the SP 500 Index above the 50-day moving average   This indicator has recently fallen to a value of 20. In the past, as the figure shows, reaching a value of 20 was mostly followed by an increase in the index. It is therefore likely that investors will now start buying the shares. Amazon shares gained significantly after the company announced a 20:1 stock split. The stock can thus be afforded by more retail investors. As for the current trend in the SP 500 index, it has been moving down recently. This may be a correction to the overall uptrend shown in Figure 3. In Figure 4 we have a short-term view.     Figure 4: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   From a technical analysis perspective, the moving averages suggest that the index is moving down. Investor interest in buying a dip has slowed this decline, which can be seen on the H4 chart where a higher low has formed.  Support is at 4,140 - 4,152. Resistance is at 4,288 - 4,300. The next resistance is at 4,385 - 4,415. The moving averages also serve as resistance.   The inflation in the Czech Republic has surpassed 11% Annual inflation in the Czech Republic for February 2022 was 11.1% (9.9% in January), higher than market expectations (10.3% was expected). This is the highest inflation in the Czech Republic since 1998. The largest contributors to inflation are housing (16%), electricity (22.6%) and gas (28.3%). This figure is likely to force the CNB to raise rates further. The Czech koruna has stalled against the euro at resistance around 25.80 - 25.90. The reason for the weakening of the koruna was geopolitical uncertainty regarding the war in Ukraine. Now it seems that the markets have absorbed this situation and this may be the reason for the appreciation of the koruna that occurred last week. If the war in Ukraine does not escalate further into new unexpected dimensions (such as the disruption of gas supplies to Europe from Russia), then the interest rate differential could again be an important factor, which, due to higher interest rates on the koruna, could lead to the koruna appreciation towards January levels.   Figure 5: EURCZK on the daily chart   Resistance: 25.80 - 25.90.  Support: 24.50 - 24.60 and then around 24.10   ECB and the euro The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 0%. At the same time, it surprised the market by ending its bond buying program in Q3, earlier than previous forecasts. The reaction to the news was a strong appreciation of the euro and it jumped to 1.1120 against the dollar. Eventually, however, the euro ended the session at around 1.10. The reason for this reversal is that tightening at a time when the economy is slowing could lead to stagflation. Strong US inflation data also contributed to the euro sell-off. The US is also much less vulnerable to sanctions against Russia than Europe.   Figure 6: EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts   From a technical point of view, we can see that the EURUSD has stalled right at the resistance band, which is at the 1.11-1.1130 level. The nearest support is 1.08-1.0850.   Crude Oil Brent crude oil reached $136 earlier this week, the highest level since July 2008. This was due to fears of a shortage of black liquid due to the conflict in Ukraine. However, Russia , which produces 7% of global demand, has announced that it will meet its contractual obligations. At the same time, Chevron said there was no shortage of oil and some other producers were ready to increase production if necessary. The EU has also announced that it will not impose an embargo on Russian oil imports, which would otherwise shock the market at a time when oil stocks are reaching multi-year lows, and will not join the US and the UK. Following this, oil began to retreat from its highs.   Figure 7: Brent crude oil on monthly and daily charts Resistance is in the 132-135 range. The nearest support is 103 - 105 USD per barrel. The next support is then in the band around USD 85 - 87 per barrel.  
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

Bitcoin Price Prediction - $500k Level In A Few Years Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.03.2022 09:00
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, known for his bullish predictions, has unveiled a new one that sees BTC hit $500,000 in 2025. Should we believe in that? No sharp movements According to the Santiment team, Bitcoin whale activity has fallen to its lowest level in a year in recent days. Therefore, one should not expect sharp movements in the market soon. In confirmation of this, Bitcoin is down only 0.4% over the past 24 hours to $40.7K. Ethereum has added 1.5% over the same time, other leading altcoins from the top ten are changing from -2.0% (Terra) to 5% (Avalanche). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 0.3% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index decreased by 0.4% to 42.4% due to the better dynamics of altcoins. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed lost 2 points to 25 in a day and again found itself in a state of "extreme fear". In searching of the bottom Despite the outstripping dynamics of altcoins, a sequence of lower and lower local highs continues to form in Bitcoin. In early February, the upside lost momentum as it moved above $45.5K. In the first days of March, the bears already dominated on the way to $45K, on the 8th already near $42.5K, and in the last two days they are trying to form a downward reversal at $41.5K. At the same time, the bulls manage to form a strong support near $38K. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that in terms of technical analysis, BTCUSD remains close to its 50-day moving average, clearly indicating the absence of any trend now. However, a consolidation in a descending triangle is usually a respite before the next decline. We will see the implementation of this scenario if BTCUSD fixes under $38K. An alternative scenario and a new upside momentum should be expected if the bulls manage to push the price above the previous highs of $42.5K, or close the day/week above $42K. News to consider Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, known for his bullish predictions, has unveiled a new one that sees BTC hit $500,000 in 2025. The State Russian Duma urged to speed up the launch of the cryptoruble in order to better bypass Western sanctions. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation recommended that banks strengthen control over the operations of clients related to cryptocurrencies.
Should Drivers Worry About Fuel Prices Again? Will Crude Oil Price Go Up!?

Even If Crude Oil Price (WTI) Pauses On The Levels Over $100, The Further Increase May Come As A Non-Stable Geopolitical Situation Persists

FXStreet News FXStreet News 18.03.2022 16:02
WTI has stabilised in a thin $102-$106ish range and at current levels in the $103.00s trades broadly flat. WTI has found a decent floor above $100 again after a rollercoaster week as traders mull Russia supply risk. More evidence of OPEC+ undershooting its output quotas (in February) are contributing to fears of a near-term shortage. Front-month WTI futures have stabilised in a $102-$106ish per barrel range on Friday amid a comparatively quiet end to what has been a rollercoaster week. Prices were sent crashing as low as the $93.00s from near $110 amid China lockdown fears as the country’s zero-Covid approach struggles to contain Omicron, but has since regained a solid footing back above $100 amid continued worries about crude oil shortages as a result of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. Momentum towards a new nuclear deal between major Western powers and Iran also seems to have waned somewhat. At current levels in the $103.00s, WTI is trading flat on the day but remains on course to post an on-the-week drop of more than $5.0, which would mark a second successive weekly loss. While prices do remain substantially lower versus last week’s highs in the $130 area, WTI currently still trades with a gain of more than $11.00 since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the absence of an announcement of a Russo-Ukrainian peace deal, which still appears to be some way off, analysts suspect risks remain tilted to the upside for oil. According to a Reuters report on Friday, OPEC+ continued to undershoot its output quota in February and by an even larger margin than in January. Meanwhile, the major OPEC nations with space capacity (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) haven’t shown signs this week of caving to pressure from major oil importers (like the US) to increase output at a faster rate, despite the fact that, according to the International Energy Agency, oil markets could lose as much as 3M barrels per day in supply from Russia from April. All signs point to WTI continuing to trade at elevated levels for the foreseeable future as supply adjusts higher from non-Russian sources, which will take time.
Price Of Crude Oil And Price Of Gold Crosses Each Other

Price Of Crude Oil And Price Of Gold Crosses Each Other

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.03.2022 12:14
Gold has remained in a one-and-a-half per cent range since last Thursday. The correction from a peak of $2070 to values below $1900 caused a brief aftershock, but it was not sustained. Gold has now stabilised above the peaks of May and June last year and is currently searching for further meaningful momentum. For short-term traders, gold has taken a back seat as markets try to assess the impact of disrupted supply chains and the amount of supply shortfall in raw materials and food. At the same time, medium-term traders should not lose sight of the fact that the current situation will not allow central banks to act adequately. As a result, the supply of fiat money will increase faster than the supply of commodities. In other words, we should expect greater tolerance for higher inflation from the CBs. In addition, governments should also be expected to provide financial support to the economy. In practice, that means more money supply and a higher level of public debt to GDP. And that is another disincentive for monetary policy, which is negative for the currency. It is also favourable for gold, which is used as protection against capital depreciation. Oil is gradually becoming the opposite of gold. After bouncing back to the trend support level of the last four months, Brent got back above $100 reasonably quickly and is adding 4% on Monday, trading at $109. Speculative demand for oil is picking up again amid discussions of a Russian energy divestment, which could be the agenda for the EU leaders and Biden meeting later this week. In addition, the US oil supply has been slow to rise, with data on Friday showing that the number of working oil drilling rigs declined a week earlier. Oil producers appear to be cautious about demand prospects with record fuel prices and are in no hurry to flood the market. This will fuel prices in the short term but is becoming an increasing drag on the economy in the medium term. Locally, we also risk suggesting that Europe will once again make it clear that it cannot substitute Russian energy, preferring to focus on sanctions against other sectors. And that could prove to be a dampening factor for oil later in the week. Oil prices above 110 still look unsustainably high, and a range with support at $85 looks more adequate for the coming months.
Russia-Ukraine War: Five reasons a deal may be closer than it seems, what it means for the dollar

Russia-Ukraine War: Five reasons a deal may be closer than it seems, what it means for the dollar

FXStreet News FXStreet News 22.03.2022 16:18
Calm in talks, lack of fresh pressure on China implies potential progress. Ukraine's proposed referendum and Russia's struggles also provide hope. The dollar would fall on any deal, but a comprehensive accord is needed for a lasting effect.It might be darkest before dawn – the Russia-Ukraine war seems stuck in the mud after a month of fighting, but this stalemate could be a prelude to a deal.1) Quiet talks: there has been no news from the negotiating table for a few days. When diplomats talk to the press, it is usually a sign that there is no progress and that they are trying to accuse the other side of failing to compromise. The current calm is a source of optimism – no news is good news.2) UA Referendum: Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that any deal would require a referendum. He seems to be preparing the public for some compromise – perhaps not only on NATO membership but also other matters. If he concedes territory to Russia, public support is needed for him not to be seen as a traitor. Laying the groundwork for a deal implies one has a higher chance to occur.3) RU stuck in the mud: Russia continues failing to make any progress on the battlefield. Ukraine's soldiers and civilian fighters refuse to surrender in Mariupol, a strategic city in the south, despite lacking sufficient water and food. Moscow seems to have thought that the fact that most citizens there speak Russian would help. Local motivation with Western arms is turning Mariupol into Stalingrad, while the battle for Kyiv is not getting any closer. 4) Is Russia thinking beyond the war? The use of a hypersonic missile – unnecessary against Ukrainian defenses – can also be seen as a sign that Russia wants to sell such weaponry to other countries. It seems to be thinking about the post-war deals rather than trying to achieve any military goal. In the meantime, oil, gas and bond payments continue flowing to the West, a sign Russia does not want further escalation. 5) Quiet on the Chinese front: international pressure is growing to stop the war. From the Pope to mediators such as Turkey and Israel, via European countries which are mulling moving sanctions to the next level – on energy. The strongest country that can impact the situation in China, the world's second-largest economy. Beijing is politically aligned with Moscow but economically tied to the West. The fact that the US has stopped criticizing China is another positive sign.Dollar implicationsIn case a deal is struck, there is a stark difference between a ceasefire leading to a frozen conflict, and a comprehensive accord that would remove sanctions. In the former scenario, oil prices would remain elevated. The global economy would continue struggling in a transition period. The dollar would recover from an initial fall, benefiting from Fed hawkishness.In case of a full deal, the greenback would suffer from diminishing demand for safe-havens and would tumble instantly. Re-integrating Russia in the global economy is better for risk assets than having Putin rule over a "big North Korea" – a large economy isolated from the world.
The Swing Overview - Week 11 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 11 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 23.03.2022 16:13
The Swing Overview - Week 11 The fall in the indices that we have seen in recent days has stopped. The indices strengthened on expectations of a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for more than three weeks. However, these negotiations have not led to any significant breakthrough yet, so the upside potential for the indices could be limited. In addition, the Fed has started its own war against inflation and raised interest rates for the first time in three years, which is rather negative news for equity indices in the short term. However, the statistics say that in the long run it does not mean a trend reversal for the SP 500 index. The Bank of England also raised rates, but the pound surprisingly weakened. The reason for this is in our article. The war in Ukraine   The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than three weeks now and there is still no end in sight. Sentiment has started to improve after reports on negotiations for a diplomatic solution to the war. However, Russia continues to make unrealistic demands that Ukraine cannot agree to. Negotiations have therefore have not led to a solution yet.   Meanwhile, the economic situation in Russia continues to deteriorate rapidly as a result of the sanctions. The credit rating agency Standard & Poor's has downgraded Russia's credit rating from the current grade CCC- to CC. Russia has already announced that it is having difficulty repaying its bonds. However, Russia managed to pay the coupon payments that were due this week, averting the country's imminent bankruptcy for now.   The war in Ukraine will have a negative impact on the global economy. World economic growth for 2022 is expected to fall from 4% to 3.2%. Apart from Russia and Ukraine, Europe and the UK will be hardest hit, where there is a significant risk of recession.   The Fed has raised interest rates The US Fed has launched a war on inflation and raised interest rates for the first time since December 2018. The current rate is 0.50% and further increases will continue. The Fed disclosed that rates are expected to rise to 2.80% within a year.  Figure 1: The evolution of interest rates in the US   The evolution of interest rates, over the last 25 years, is shown in Figure 1.   Jerome Powell commented that the Fed's main goal is to achieve price stability and maximum employment. He expects inflation, which has now reached 7.9%, to reach the target of 2%, but this will take longer than originally expected.    The problem is a persistent labour shortage, which is putting upward pressure on wages. However, the situation is already starting to normalise in some sectors, suggesting that this should not be an uncontrollable spiral wage growth that would strongly support inflation.   According to Powell, the US economy is in good shape and ready for monetary policy normalisation. Therefore, the Fed will start in May to reduce the bonds in its balance sheet, which has grown considerably to almost $9 trillion thanks to the support of the economy during the covid pandemic.   The Index SP500 As far as the impact of interest rate hikes is concerned, this should not change the long-term bullish market. Statistics confirm that over the following 12 months from the date of the hike, the index has reached higher levels in every case since 1983. Figure 2: The impact of the first interest rate hike on the performance of the SP 500 index. Source: Bloomberg     However, the statistics also show that in the short term, there were declines in the index within 3 months and this cannot be ruled out now as well. As for the current developments on the SP 500 index, it has recently bounced off its supports. The reason for this was the hope for a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine. However, this has stalled. The Fed also gave optimism to the indices with its statement about the economy doing well. Figure 3: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   Overall, the index is currently in a downtrend. In terms of technical analysis, the price has reached the resistance level which is at 4,383 - 4,420. According to the daily chart, the price has reached the EMA 50 moving average, which also serves as resistance. Support according to the H4 chart is at 4,328 - 4,334.  Significant support according to the daily chart is at 4 105 - 4 152.  German DAX index Figure 4: The German DAX index on H4 and daily chart   There was a significant deterioration in economic sentiment in Germany in March, as shown by the ZEW index, which reached a negative reading of -39.3. However, the DAX index, which is much more affected by the war in Ukraine than the US indices, strengthened last week.  The reason for the index's rise was mainly due to signs of a diplomatic solution to the conflict. The price climbed up to the resistance level on the H4 chart last week, which is in the area near the 14,500 price. The strong resistance according to the daily chart is in the range between 14,800 - 15,000.  The closest support according to the H4 chart is at 14,030 - 14,100.   The euro strengthened after the Fed announcement The euro price retested the resistance area which is in the area near 1.1130 - 1.1150 according to the daily chart. However, the Euro remains under pressure and although the ECB was surprisingly hawkish at the last meeting, it is still lagging behind compared to the US Fed. Moreover, the war in Ukraine, and according to some, the looming recession in the Eurozone, does not give much room for the Euro to strengthen. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the EURUSD falls to levels around 1. 0890 - 1. 0900, where the nearest support level is.     Figure 5: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts.   From a technical point of view, we can see that EURUSD is still in a downtrend according to the daily chart, so the current pullback may be an opportunity for trades in the short direction.   The Bank of England also raised interest rates The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by 0.25%.  Therefore, the rate is currently at 0.75%. By raising interest rates, the central bank is responding to rising inflation, which is expected to hit 8% in June 2022. But the pound surprisingly weakened sharply after the rate announcement. This was because the central bank was much more cautious in its expectations for the future of the economy. There are already signs that the war in Ukraine is having a negative impact on consumer confidence and is also having a negative impact on household incomes. This would slow economic activity. That is why the central bank has moved away from its previous aggressive hawkish tone.   Figure 6: The British Pound on H4 and daily chart.   A resistance is in the area of 1.3170 - 1.3200, where the price has halted. A support is at 1.3000.  
US manufacturing order books and inflation pressures are softening

Natural Gas Price Rises As Triggered By Putin’s Rhetoric That He Will ‘Demand Rouble Gas Payments’

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 24.03.2022 12:47
According to Investing.com Russia could require gas payment in roubles what clearly affects both Forex pairs (e.g. EUR/RUB) and natural gas price (TTF) which has increased by 31%. What’s more MOEX is back to the game after such a long break. Some companies have gained significantly already and many would like to know what’s ahead. Generally speaking Russian currency and Russia-associated markets are really volatile at the moment and there are many assets to watch in the following days. Let’s begin with natural gas price. Obviously monthly chart (yes, it’s been one month since the warfare started) shows the fluctuations caused by the start of invasion which took place on February 24th We may say that the true rise came few days later, as negotiations of cease-fire haven’t changed a thing and sanctions have begun to impact the markets. Further developments containing some signals of a ceasefire appeared not to coincide with the reality heading price of natural gas to a next rise. Natural Gas Price Chat (TTF) – monthly 24/02-23/03 - +31% Natural Gas Price Chart (TTF) Daily 22-23/03/22 +18.5% Russian Roubel (RUB) – Forex Charts +11% Monthly chart shows a huge decline and strengthening of RUB. EUR/RUB Chart - Monthly +6% EUR/RUB Chart - Daily (24h) Source/Data: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com  
Crude Oil Holds Its Breath Ahead of World Summits

Crude Oil Holds Its Breath Ahead of World Summits

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.03.2022 16:46
Current levels of oil and petroleum products are high. Given that, what can explain such a surprising drop in US crude inventories?Energy Market UpdatesCommercial crude oil reserves in the United States fell much more than expected in the week ended March 18, according to figures released on Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).US crude inventories have shrunk by more than 2.5 million barrels, which implies greater demand and is obviously another bullish factor for crude oil prices. Such a decline in inventories is particularly remarkable as the American strategic reserves have also recorded a significant drop. This is the 25th consecutive week of falling strategic reserves since the Biden administration started to make those adjustments in an attempt to relieve the market.(Source: Investing.com)WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)Furthermore, some additional figures extracted from the same EIA report were released and surprised the markets.These are US Gasoline Reserves, which plunged by about 2.95 million barrels over a week, while the market was not even forecasting a two-million decline.(Source: Investing.com)Thus, US exports jumped by more than 30% compared to the previous week, not only due to large flows to Europe to replace Russian barrels, but also marked by a significant rebound in Asian demand.RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Beware that a NATO summit, a G7 summit, and a European Union summit are being held on Thursday, when the various countries could set a new round of sanctions against Moscow.So, how will black gold progress from now on? Do you think that the on-going negotiations with Iran and Venezuela could flood the market with additional barrels? Let us know in the comments!That’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Price Of Gold Nears $45k As Many Authorities Are Speaking Of Crypto

Price Of Gold Nears $45k As Many Authorities Are Speaking Of Crypto

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.03.2022 08:52
Bitcoin is trading above $44.1K on Friday, gaining 2.4% over the past day and 8.2% over the week. Increased inquiry for BTC Yesterday, the first cryptocurrency was in demand during the Asian and American sessions. The current values of BTC are consolidating in the area of 2-month extremes. In contrast to the previous test of these levels, this time, we see a smooth rise in the rate, indicating that the bulls still have some momentum. Also, over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has gained 2.4%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten have strengthened from 0.5% (XRP) to 7.4% (Solana). The exception is Terra, which is shedding 1.8%, correcting part of its gains in the first half of the week. According to CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market capitalization increased by 2.3% to $2 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.1 percentage points to 41.8%. The Fear and Greed Cryptocurrency Index added another 7 points to 47 and ended up in the neutral territory. Cardano leads the last week in terms of growth among top coins (+39%) as Coinbase added the possibility of staking cryptocurrency with a current estimated annual return of 3.75% per annum. Countries assess the risks of cryptos Credit Suisse reported that Bitcoin doesn't pose a threat to the banking sector as an alternative to fiat money and banking services. The CEO of BlackRock, one of the world's largest investment companies, noted that military actions in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia will increase the popularity of cryptocurrencies and accelerate their adoption. Despite the rally in global stocks over the past two weeks, financial conditions in the debt markets continue to deteriorate due to rising interest rates and inflation. Largely because of this, El Salvador has postponed the issuance of bitcoin bonds in anticipation of more favorable conditions. Since very active steps to raise key rates are expected in the next year and a half, and Bitcoin is far from the highs, it is unlikely that such bonds will be issued soon. The Bank of England intends to tighten supervision of cryptocurrencies due to the financial risks that their adoption carries. However, the Central Bank urged commercial banks to exercise maximum caution when dealing with these extremely volatile assets.
Your Crypto Focus: 26th March-1st April

Your Crypto Focus: 26th March-1st April

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 25.03.2022 09:47
This week, we’ve seen another mainly firmer week on the crypto boards, with the top 10 adding over 5% and the top 25 gaining over 5.5%. It wasn’t all smooth sailing as sellers tried to get things going lower early in the week before buyers returned and set the direction for the remainder of the week. Looking at the top 100, Qtum was one of the leaders this week, adding 45% and Looping had a fantastic week, climbing over 58% in the last seven days. ApeCoin failed to catch weekly buyer momentum, dropping over 18% during the week. One of the week’s stories to watch is reports Russia is looking at bitcoin as a payment form to settle energy transactions. Western sanctions continue to hit the Russian economy hard and effectively locked out of the USD FX market. The Kremlin is looking at other payment options, including Bitcoin. Putin has changed his tune on bitcoin. In 2021, the Russian leader told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble that while he believed bitcoin had value, he wasn’t convinced it could replace the U.S. dollar in settling oil trades. Now, the Kremlin’s top brass is weighing it as a form of payment for major exports. It’s unclear, however, whether bitcoin’s relative lack of liquidity could support international trade transactions of that magnitude. – CNBC This week we are focusing on a favorite that has, like many, seen a rough run over the last few months. Cardano started the year with two months of sharp declines that saw the price drop back to 0.7440. Since then, we’ve seen a fightback that’s produced two higher weekly bars, the first time since November 2021. This week’s price broke out of its long term downtrend, another firm sign that demand is back on track, which is what we want to see from here. If buyers can break 1.206 resistance, that would be another win, but we would like to see a new reaction in lower form. A new higher low that sets up a break and closes above that resistance point could send a firmer signal that this new run higher might actually turn into something more. The post Your Crypto Focus: 26th March-1st April appeared first on Eightcap.
WTI falls back to $110 area amid pre-weekend profit-taking

WTI falls back to $110 area amid pre-weekend profit-taking

FXStreet News FXStreet News 26.03.2022 05:15
WTI has stabilised in the $110 area, down another $1 on the day after Thursday’s $3 drop.An easing of CPC pipeline disruption concerns plus the EU’s failure to agree on a Russian oil embargo triggered profit-taking.Front-month WTI futures have stabilised in the $110 area on Friday, with Thursday’s modest bearish momentum continuing for a second day and prices currently down about $1.0 after the slightly more than $3 drop a day earlier. Supply concerns have eased somewhat in the latter half of the week after news broke of a partial resumption of oil flows through to Kazakhstan’s CPC pipeline. Earlier in the week, authorities had announced that oil flows through the 1.3M barrel per day pipeline had been halted due to the need to repair storm damages.The supply disruption comes as global oil markets face massive uncertainty owing to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent harsh sanctions placed on the Russian economy by Western nations. Speculation at the start of the week had been that the EU would on Thursday, following extraordinary NATO/EU leaders meetings, announce an embargo on all Russian oil imports. But this was not the case, with heavily Russia-energy-import-dependant countries like Germany pushing back against this policy out of fear of causing economic self-harm.The EU’s failure to implement a wider Russian oil import ban has likely contributed to the further bout of profit-taking in the latter stages of the week. But it seems that traders remain keen to add to long positions in the $110 area. Commodity strategists think that as the impact of the Russo-Ukraine war on Russian oil exports becomes more evident in the coming month, there remains plenty of room for further upside in WTI. The latest remarks from Russian negotiators suggest that a Russo-Ukraine peace deal, which could potentially precede an easing of Western sanctions, is not likely to be forthcoming any time soon.
Crude Oil Price - What Are The Effects Of Sanctions?

Crude Oil Price - What Are The Effects Of Sanctions?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 05.04.2022 18:09
  While Europe condemns Russia's actions, other countries take advantage of the turmoil and buy oil at a discount. Are any of the sanctions even effective? Crude oil prices jumped over 3% on Monday, with investors worried about tighter supply in the market and even more nervous about the prospect of new European sanctions against Russia, which could affect Russian exports. 27 EU members failed to agree on an embargo as part of further penalties for Russia’s military deployment in Ukraine, with Germany warning of hasty moves that could plunge the economy into recession. Finally, on April 5, it was decided to introduce a total embargo, including for Russian coal, truck transport, and ports for Russian ships. However, the UE did not agree on the most important issues, i.e., the embargo on Russian oil and gas. Some countries, such as Hungary – where Prime Minister Viktor Orbán secured a new consecutive victory in the past weekend’s elections – opposed any prohibition. Germany, however, aims to phase out Russian oil imports by the end of the year, officials said, as does Poland. Many buyers in Europe are voluntarily avoiding Russian crude oil in order not to damage their reputation or avoid possible legal difficulties. Meanwhile, India and China, which refused to condemn Russia's actions, continue to buy Russian crude oil. Lured by deep discounts following Western sanctions against Russian entities, India has bought at least 13 million barrels of Russian crude since late February, which is over 80% of the whole of 2021, according to some Reuters data. Until now, Russian energy imports provided Europe with 40% of its natural gas needs and another 30% of crude oil. Switching to a new energy source is NOT that simple, and the refineries also need a certain adaptation period to be recalibrated to new imported sources as crude oil may have very different components depending on where it was extracted from. This is what most politicians can’t even understand as they keep threatening supplies to their own country by pretending to be capable of just switching from one source to another as fast as an eye blink. It is certainly not as simple as that, and the same goes with SWIFT and energy payments.Many countries wanted to cut Moscow off from the SWIFT International Payment System. However, how will they pay for their gas after that? They will, in fact, have to make some exceptions with a few banks. Alternatively, they blocked or seized Russia’s currency reserves (both those in US dollars and euros), but now they are refusing to pay for their energy imports in roubles. Has Russian energy become free then? More seriously, given that the rouble is not widely available outside Russia, and that they will only accept payments in their domestic currency, there are only two options now for importing countries to pay Russia for their energy needs. As for the first option, they will have to pay for their imports with gold, which will surely be accepted. The second option, more indirectly, will use an intermediary bank that has not yet been disconnected from SWIFT, such as Gazprom Bank, where they will have to open a client account and then transfer the money in euros, so the bank will switch to foreign exchange operations (euro to ruble) and take a commission. The second option is indeed the most likely to be agreed between the different parties if the EU's most reliant on Russian gas does not want Russia to turn off the gas tap. Map of Europe showing EU-Russia gas pipelines If you think that Europe’s gas supplies could easily be replaced if Putin cuts off its gas exports to the EU, just look at the world gas reserves below, take a deep breath, and think again: Map of Europe showing EU-Russia gas pipelines (Source: Dailymail.co.uk) WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
The Swing Overview - Week 14 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 14 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:41
The Swing Overview - Week 14 Equity indices weakened last week on news of rising interest rates and a tightening of the US economy. The euro is also weakening not only because it is under pressure from the ongoing war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, but also from the uncertainty of the upcoming French presidential election. The outbreak of the coronavirus in China has fuelled negative sentiment in oil, where the market fears an excess of supply over demand. The US dollar was the clear winner in this environment.  The USD index strengthens along with US bond yields According to the US Fed meeting minutes released on Wednesday, the Fed is prepared to reduce its balance sheet by the USD 95 billion per month from May this year.  In addition, the Fed is ready to raise interest rates at a pace of 0.50%. Thus, at the next meeting, which will take place in May, we can expect a rate increase from the current 0.50% to 1.00%. This option is already included in asset prices.     As a result of this the yields on US 10-year bonds continued to rise and has already reached 2.64%. The US dollar in particular is benefiting from this development and is approaching the level 100. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices under pressure from high interest rates The prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes is having a negative impact on investor sentiment, particularly for growth stocks. However, it is positive for financial sector stocks. High yields on the US bonds are attractive to investors, who will thus prefer this yield to, for example, investments in gold, which does not yield any interest. Figure 2: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The US SP 500 index is currently moving in a downward correction, which is shown on the H4 chart. Prices could move in a downward channel that is formed by a lower high and a lower low. The SP 500 according to the H4 chart is below the SMA 100 moving average, which also indicates bearish tendencies.   The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the range of 4,513 - 4,520. The next resistance is around 4,583 - 4,600. A support is at 4 450 - 4 455.   German DAX index A declining channel has also formed for the DAX index. The price is below the SMA 100 moving average on the H4 chart, where at the same time the SMA 100 got below the EMA 50, which is a strong bearish signal. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the nearest resistance is in the range between 14,340 - 14,370. There is also a confluence with the moving average EMA 50 here. The next resistance is at 14,590 - 14,630. A support is at 14,030 - 14,100.   The DAX is influenced by the upcoming French presidential election, the outcome of which could have a major impact on the European economy.    The euro remains in a downtrend The Euro is negatively affected by the sanctions against Russia, which will also have a negative impact on the European economy. In addition, uncertainty has arisen regarding the French presidential election. Although the victory of the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen over the defending President Emmanuel Macron is still unlikely, the polls suggest that it is within the statistical margin of error. And this makes markets nervous.   A Le Pen victory would be bad for the economy and France's overall international image. It would weaken the European Union. That's why this news sent the euro below 1.09. The first round of elections will be held on Sunday April 10 and the second round on April 24, 2022.    Figure 4: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.0930 - 1.0950. The significant resistance according to the daily chart is 1.1160 - 1.1190.  A support is at 1.080 - 1.0850.   According to the technical analysis, the euro is in a downtrend, but as it is currently at significant support levels, any short speculation could be considered only after the current support is broken and retested to validate the break.   The crude oil continues to descend The oil prices fell for a third straight day after the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) announced it would release 60 million barrels of its members' reserves to the open market, adding to an earlier reserve release of 180 million barrels announced by the United States. In total, 240 million barrels would be delivered to the market over six months, resulting in a net inflow of 1.33 million barrels a day.   That would be more than triple the monthly production additions of 400,000 barrels per day by the world's oil producers under the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and controlled by Russia.   Adding to the negative sentiment on oil was a coronavirus outbreak in Shanghai, the largest in two years, which forced a more than week-long closure of China's second-largest city. This raises concerns about demand among oil consumers in the Chinese economy, which has a significant impact on prices. Figure 5: Brent crude oil on the H4 and daily charts. Brent crude oil is thus approaching support, which according to the H4 chart is at around USD 97-99 per barrel. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at the price of USD 106 per barrel. The more significant resistance is at USD 111-112 per barrel of the Brent crude.   
Crypto Focus: Another Choppy Week on the Markets

Crypto Focus: Another Choppy Week on the Markets

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 22.04.2022 14:44
It’s been a choppy week, with little direction at the end of it all on the top 10 and top 25. Both markets have seen plenty of action with decent ranges above and below the week’s open. As I write this early into Friday’s London session, sellers are now trying to get the upper hand. For now, the losses remain minor. Looking at the top 25, we saw 5.28% added to the upside and 5.77% to the downside (measuring the weekly bars high and low). Bitcoin and Ethereum both tracked closely to the top 10 and 25 indexes and were the two most significant coins edging lower after setting wide highs and lows. ETH is seeing plenty of support from 2980, and that level, for now, remains a key support point. Bitcoin continues to falter at 41,500. We are noting this level as strong resistance at this point. Fed policy remains a sensitive point for crypto traders as Friday morning’s news of a potential 50 point rate rise in May sent shock waves through major coins. This announcement definitely looks to have derailed or added to buyer worries as the fightback we had been seeing through the week stopped. Other news stated that the Treasury Department added BitRiver and ten of its subsidiaries, based in Russia, to its sanctions list. This coming week we still feel that FED policy looks to be the more sensitive issue regarding demand. Now that the news is out and being digested, could this lead to traders moving on from the shock and becoming a little more confident in buying, or could it continue to drive funds out of the top 10 and 25 coins? Some of this week’s big movers; Monero had another great week climbing to 281. Price gained 19.39% as demand remained thick for this coin. RookUSD KeeperDao is this weeks focus. We noticed the strong buying earlier in the week, and nothing changed by Friday’s session. Buyers are flocking to the coin, taking it back above USD$153, adding 34.52%! Price hit new 3-month highs this week after posting a second straight month of gains (at this point). Price has started to confirm a new trend after buyers beat resistance. If the new move can continue, we are looking at 167.60 as potential resistance. As long as we see new higher lows on the new pull back, we will continue to look for new moves higher, confirming the new uptrend. One pullback at resistance is fine, but we will want to see buyers break that level to really show that momentum is on the buyer side. The post Crypto Focus: Another Choppy Week on the Markets appeared first on Eightcap.
The Swing Overview - Week 22 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 22 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.06.2022 13:59
The Swing Overview - Week 22 Equity indices continued to rise for a second week despite rising inflation and sanctions against Russia. Economic data indicate optimistic consumer expectations and the easing of the Covid-19 measures in China also brought some relief to the markets. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 1.5%. The Eurozone inflation hit a new record of 8.1%, giving further fuel to the ECB to raise interest rates, which is supporting the euro to strengthen.   Macroeconomic data The US consumer confidence in economic growth for May came in at 106.4. The market was expecting 103.9. This optimism points to an expected increase in consumer spendings, which is a positive development. The optimism was also confirmed by data from the manufacturing sector. The ISM PMI index in manufacturing rose by 56.1 in May, an improvement on the April reading of 55.4. The manufacturing sector is therefore expecting further expansion.   On the other hand, data from the labour market were disappointing. The ADP Non Farm Employment indicator (private sector job growth) was well below expectations as the economy created only 128k new jobs in May (the market was expecting 300k new jobs). The unemployment claims data held at the standard 200k level. However, the crucial indicator from the labour market will be Friday's NFP data.   Quarterly wage growth for 1Q 2022 was 12.6% (previous quarter was 3.9%). This figure is a leading indicator on inflation. Faster inflation growth could lead to a higher-than-expected 0.50% rate hike at the Fed's June meeting.   The US 10-year Treasury yields have rebounded from 2.6% and have started to rise again. They are currently around 2.9%. However, the US Dollar Index has not yet reacted to the rise in yields. The reason is that the euro, which has appreciated significantly in recent days, has the largest weight in the USD index. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index has continued to strengthen in recent days. The market seems to be accepting the expected 0.50% rate hike and while economic data points to some slowdown, forward looking consumers‘ and managers’ expectations are optimistic.  Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The US SP 500 index is approaching a significant resistance level, which is in the 4,197-4,204 range. The next one is at 4,293 - 4,306. The nearest support is at 4 075 - 4 086.    German DAX index Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Germany's manufacturing PMI for May came in at 54.8. The previous month it was 54, 6. Thus, managers expect expansion in the manufacturing sector. Surprisingly, German exports rose in April despite the disruption of trade relations with Russia. Exports in Germany grew by 4.4% even though exports to Russia fell by 10%.  The positive data has an impact on the DAX index. However, the bulls in DAX may be discouraged by the expected ECB interest rate hike.   The DAX has reached resistance in the 14,600 - 14,640 area. The nearest significant support is at 14,300 - 14,330, where the horizontal resistance is coincident with the moving average EMA 50 on the H4 chart.   The euro continues to rise Bulls on the euro were supported by inflation data, which reached a record high of 8.1% in the eurozone for the month of May. Inflation increased by 0.8% on a monthly basis compared to April. Information from the manufacturing sector exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI for May coming in at 54.6, indicating optimism in the economy. The ECB will meet on Thursday 9/6/2022 and it might be surprising. While analysts do not expect a rate hike at this meeting, rising inflation may prompt the ECB to act faster.  Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart The EUR/USD currency pair is reacting to the rate hike expectations by gradual strengthening. A resistance is at 1.0780 The nearest support is now at 1.0629 - 1.0640 and then at 1.0540 - 1.0550.   The Bank of Canada raised the interest rate The GDP in Canada for Q1 2022 grew by 2.89% year-on-year (3.23% in the previous period). On a month-on-month basis, the GDP grew by 0.7% (0.9% in February). This points to slowing economic growth.  Canada's manufacturing PMI for May came in at 56.8 (56.2 in April ), an upbeat development. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 0.50% to 1.5% as expected by analysts. In addition to the rate hike, the Canadian dollar is positively affected by the rise in oil prices as Canada is a major exporter. Figure 5: The USD/CAD on H4 and daily chart The USD/CAD currency pair is currently in a downward movement. The nearest resistance according to the daily chart is 1.2710-1.2730. Support according to the daily chart is in the range of 1.2400-1.2470.