Russia

January 20, 2022  $USD, Ausrtalia, China, Currency Movement, Japan, Norway, Russia Overview:  Amid inflation fears and the decline in crypto prices, gold was resurrected, rallying the most in three months yesterday to its best level since November.  It is consolidating those gains today, straddling the $1840 level.  Equities are trying to stabilize.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a five-day slide with a 1% gain helped by a 3.4% rally in Hong Kong, helped by the mainland's initiatives, which included a small reduction in the loan prime rate and promises of stepped-up support for the property sector.  China's CSI 300 rose almost 1%, its third gain this week.  A rebound in the tech sector also helped lift the Nikkei by 1.1%.   European shares opened higher, but the lack of breadth saw the Stoxx 600 turn lower.  Gains in utilities and communications are not to offset the losses elsewhere, led by energy and financials.  US futures are firm after closing poorly yesterday.  Benchmark 10-year yields are softer.   The US 10-year is off three basis points to near 1.83%.  European yields are 1-3 bp lower.   The US dollar is trading off against most of the major currencies.  The Norwegian krone, where the central bank stood pat, and the Swedish krona are laggards today. A strong employment report is helping lift the Australian dollar by around 0.4% to lead the pack.  Emerging market currencies are mixed, with Russia, Hungary, and Turkey leading the decliners.  The Thai baht and South African rand are the best performers, but the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is slightly weaker today after posting its best gain in a month yesterday (~0.75%).  Industrial metals are firmer.  Tin and nickel shortages are behind their surge, while iron ore prices are up 2%+ for the third consecutive session and at their best level since last August.  Copper prices are extending yesterday's 2% rally.  Crude is consolidating a three-day rally that lifted March WTI to almost $86.80.  US natgas tumbled almost 5.9% yesterday and is straddling the $4 level today.   The Dutch benchmark is paring initial follow-through after dropping 8.3% yesterday.   Asia Pacific China's loan prime rate was cut.  The one-year rate was cut by 5 bp in December and 10 bp earlier today to stand at 3.7%.  The five-year loan prime rate was cut by only five basis points (to 4.6%).  This was less than expected and is seen as a cautionary signal about the property market.  Still, policymakers are seen taking other efforts to promote stronger growth more broadly.  Further easing by the PBOC is expected.   Japan reported a smaller than expected December trade deficit.  Exports did not pullback as much as expected.  After rising 20.5% year-over-year in November, they slowed to a 17.5% gain in December.  Imports slowed more than expected, to 41.1% from 43.8%.  This is broadly consistent with the seasonal pattern that December often sees improvement from November.  Last year, Japan reported an average monthly trade deficit of JPY122.7 bln.  In 2020, the average monthly trade surplus was JPY32 bln. An average trade shortfall of almost JPY140 bln was recorded in 2019.  Yet, through this period, Japan continued to experience a current account surplus, driven not by trade in goods and services, but by the return on foreign investment.   Despite new social restrictions, Australia's December jobs data was better than expected.  Overall job growth was near 65k (Bloomberg median was for an increase of 60k), and the unemployment rate tumbled to 4.2% from 4.6% (4.5% anticipated).  Three-quarters of the jobs were full-time positions, and the participation rate was steady at 66.1%.  The swaps market has about 40 bp of tightening priced in over the next six months.  The central bank has pushed against such expectations.   It meets again on January 31. The US dollar recorded a new low for the week near JPY114.00, where a $520 mln option expires today.  It has not been able to rise much about JPY114.50.    We suspect the North American market can probe the upside.  A close above JPY114.60 would help stabilize the tone.  The Australian dollar is firm after the employment data pushed it to new highs for the week just shy of $0.7260.  The market does not seem to have the energy to test the $0.7290-$0.7300 area, where options for around A$660 mln lay. The dollar spent the entire mainland session below CNY6.35.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3485, the strongest in three years, and stronger than the Bloomberg survey projected (~CNY6.3478).  Still, state-owned banks (aren't they all?) were seen on the dollar's bid when it approached CNY6.3400.  Europe The economic news stream is light.  The ECB's record of last month's meeting will be published shortly, but it tends not to be a market mover.   The December CPI was revised to show a 5.0% year-over-year increase rather than 4.9%, while the monthly increase remained at 0.4% and the core rate was steady at 2.6%.   The US and Europe agree that a Russian invasion of Ukraine needs to be resisted, but there is still differences on the response.  Biden raised the prospect yesterday of something short of a full invasion, which he acknowledged would complicate the response. Russia has continued to reinforce its troops and artillery.  US Secretary of State Blinken and Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov are to talk today.  Russia continues to deny plans to invade but demands concessions from NATO that will not be forthcoming.  This hangs over the markets like the sword of Damocles.  Norway's Norges Bank kept rates on hold today, but reaffirmed a hike in March, which would be the first meeting with a new governor, who has yet to be named.  The swaps market sees 85 bp of tightening this year.  Last year, it hiked rates in September and December.   Elsewhere, we note that as widely expected Turkey's central bank left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 14.00%, lending credence to ideas that the easing operations are complete after 500 bp in cuts were delivered in the last four months of 2021.   The euro is trading quietly in less than a 30-pip range below $1.1370. The $1.1380 area is the (38.2%) retracement objective of the decline from last Friday's high near $1.1485.  A break of $1.1340 could see $1.1320 but a close below $1.1300 is needed to lend credence to ideas that a high is in place.  There is a large option (nearly 1.1 bln euros) at $1.1350 that expires today.  Sterling is coiling.  It is inside yesterday's range, which was inside Tuesday's range (~$1.3575-$1.3660).  The consolidative tone may persist today ahead of tomorrow's retail sales, where there could be room for disappointment after a 1.4% gain in November.   America The US reports weekly initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed survey, and existing home sales.   The high frequency data points may pose some headline risk, but the market is focused on policy ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.  That said, the Empire State manufacturing survey, reported earlier this week, was a disappointment, while yesterday's housing starts, and permits were stronger than anticipated. Canada's December headline CPI yesterday was in line with expectations (4.8% vs. 4.7% in November), but the underlying core measures were firmer.  The Bank of Canada meets next week, and the swaps market has a little more than a 2/3 chance of a hike.  Tomorrow, Canada reports November retail sales, which are expected to be robust (1%+). Mexico reports its December unemployment, which is expected to have drifted lower.   The greenback is chopping roughly between CAD1.2450 and CAD1.2550 for the sixth session.   This consolidation phase follows the US dollar's decline from last year's high on December 20 near CAD1.2965.  Without re-kindling the downside momentum, the greenback may be set up for a bounce.  The Slow Stochastic is turning up.  The CAD1.26 area is technically important.  It is the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern.  The dollar's downside momentum faded against the Mexican peso.  Despite repeated attempts, it could not punch below the 200-day moving average (~MXN20.2850) and bounced yesterday to close above MXN20.50 for the first time since January 5.  It is in a narrow range straddling MXN20.50 today. The intraday technicals caution against chasing the dollar higher.  A pullback toward MXN20.40-MXN20.45 looks reasonable.       Disclaimer

  Gold soared as investors got scared by reports of an allegedly impending military conflict. Was it worth reacting sharply to geopolitical factors? Gold has been performing quite nicely in January. As the chart below shows, its price increased from $1,806 at the end of December to around $1,820 this week, strengthening its position above $1,800. Yesterday (January 19, 2022), gold prices went sharply higher, jumping above $1,840, as one can see in the chart below. What happened? Investors got scared of the Russian bear and inflationary hydra. President Biden predicted that Russia would move into Ukraine. The threat of invasion and renewal of a conflict weakened risk appetite among investors. To complete the geopolitical picture, this week, North Korea fired missiles again (on Monday, the country conducted its fourth missile test of the year), while terrorists attacked the United Arab Emirates with drones. The heightened risk aversion could spur some demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. The yellow metal tends to benefit from greater uncertainty. However, investors should remember that geopolitical risks usually cause only a short-lived reaction. Investors also recalled the ongoing global inflationary crisis. Some news helped them wake up. In the U.K., inflation surged 5.4% in December, the highest since March 1992. Meanwhile, in Canada, inflation jumped 4.8%, also the fastest pace in 30 years. Additionally, crude oil prices have jumped to around $86.5 per barrel, the highest value since 2014, as the chart below shows. The timing couldn’t be worse, as inflation is already elevated, while higher oil implies higher CPI in the future. Gold should, therefore, welcome the rise in oil prices. On the other hand, it could prompt the Fed to react more forcefully and aggressively to tighten its monetary policy.   Implications for Gold What does the recent mini-rally imply for the gold market? Well, it’s never a good idea to draw far-reaching conclusions from short-term moves, especially those caused by geopolitical factors. Risk-offs and risk-on sentiments come and go. However, let’s do justice to gold. It hit a two-months high, more and more boldly settling in above $1,800. All this happened despite rising bond yields. As the chart below shows, the long-term real interest rates have increased from about -1.0% at the end of 2021 to about -0.6%. Gold’s resilience in the face of rising interest rates is praiseworthy. Having said that, investors shouldn’t forget that 2022 will be a year of the Fed’s tightening cycle, rising interest rates, and also a certain moderation in inflation. All these factors could be important headwinds for gold this year. However, investors may underestimate how the Fed’s monetary policy will impact market conditions. After all, the Fed’s hawkish stance also entails some risks for the financial markets and the overall economy. Practically, each tightening cycle in the past has led to an economic crisis. As a reminder, after four hikes in 2018, the Fed had to reverse its stance and cut them in 2019. The Fed signaled not only a few hikes this year, but also a reduction of its balance sheet. Given the enormous indebtedness of the economy and Wall Street’s addiction to easy money, it might be too much to swallow. Importantly, when the Fed is focused on fighting inflation, its ability to help the markets will be limited. I thought that such worries would arise later this year, supporting gold, but maybe the gold market has already started to price in the possibility of economic turbulence triggered by the Fed’s tightening cycle. Anyway, next week, the FOMC will gather for the first time in 2022, and it could be an important, insightful event for the gold market. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold surged over geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine. Following a three-week-long sideways grind, the break above the triple top at 1830 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side. 1850 is the next level to clear, which would lead to November’s peak at 1877. The RSI has shot into the overbought area, and some profit-taking could briefly drive the price lower. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to join in. 1820 near the base of the recent rally is a key support in this case. AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar climbed back after the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in December. A surge above 0.7270 was the bulls’ attempt to initiate a reversal. As sellers covered their bets, the way might be open for a meaningful rebound. The follow-up correction met solid buying interest at 0.7170. Sentiment would remain upbeat as long as price action stays above this key support. 0.7290 is an important hurdle and its breach could trigger a runaway rally towards 0.7420. US 30 tests major support The Dow Jones 30 retreats as traders take profit ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. The index has given up all its gains from the late December rally and fell through the daily support at 34700. This bearish breakout could extend losses to the psychological level of 34000, a critical floor to prevent a deeper correction in the medium-term. The RSI’s oversold situation may attract some buying interest. Nonetheless, the bulls will need to lift offers around 35500 in a show of force, in order to turn sentiment around.

  The S&P 500 index broke below its early December low. Are we in a new bear market or is this still just a downward correction? The broad stock market index lost 1.10% on Thursday following its Wednesday’s decline of around 1%. The S&P 500 index fell below the 4,500 level and it was the lowest since mid-October. Investors reacted to quarterly earnings releases and further Russia-Ukraine tensions. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. This morning the market is expected to open 0.4% lower and it will most likely extend the downtrend. The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,500-4,525, marked by the recent support level. On the other hand, the support level is now at around 4,450. The S&P 500 broke below an over month-long upward trend line this week, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Broke Below its Previous Lows Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. The market broke below its previous local lows along the 4,520 level. There was a chance that entering a long position would be justified here, but any short-term bullish scenario seems invalidated now. On the other hand, it may be too late to enter a short position right now, because of some clear technical oversold conditions. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% lower this morning, so it will likely extend a short-term downtrend. We may see another intraday rebound, but there have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Yesterday we’ve seen a convincing rally, but it failed and the market sold off to new lows. The coming quarterly earnings releases (next week we’ll have MSFT, AAPL, TSLA among others) remain a bullish factor for stocks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 reached yet another new low yesterday and it was the lowest since mid-October. Stocks will most likely bounce at some point, but any rally may be short-lived. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

This episode is sponsored by Kava.Today's Stories:Bank of Russia Calls for Full Ban on CryptoEuropean Shares Waver as Traders Contemplate Monetary Policy Direction | Financial TimesStock Futures Inch Up After Nasdaq Enters Correction - WSJFeatured Story: What You Own When You Own an NFTThis episode was edited & produced by Adrian Blust.

The ruble remains under pressure on Monday after four weeks of decline. The USDRUB is above 77.7 and approaching the area of last year's highs. Technically, the situation looks like a moment of truth for the ruble. An easing of geopolitical tensions has the potential to turn it around on the way to 78, as it did several times last year. And we can see that Russian politicians the previous week were ready for more constructive negotiations and compromises. However, it has not yet come to de-escalation, and pressure on the rouble persists. Reports that the US and the UK are set to expel diplomats from Kyiv have created a new local momentum of pressure on the ruble. Fixing the dollar above 78 rubles today could be the starting point for a jump of USD/RUB to 80 and EUR/RUB to 90 this week. At the same time, we believe that the overheating is close to the peak. Further chances for stabilising the situation at the current level or even compromising are higher than stricter rhetoric. In this case, the ruble would have the opportunity for another turn down from 78-80 for the dollar and 88-90 for the euro. In a partial geopolitical agreement, the Russian currency would remain tied to global risk demand, which is contracting in January. Therefore, even with a favourable geopolitical scenario, one should not expect the rouble to quickly return to levels of the start of the year.

Cardano's price action is slipping below the monthly S1 and crucial historical support. Once broken below this vital support, an area of 30% losses could be triggered. Expect bulls to await the FED meeting later this week before engaging in the market. Cardano (ADA) price action is not seeing the turn in sentiment that was expected with the start of a new trading week. Geopolitical talks are ramping up again this Monday regarding Russia, and investors are awaiting details of monetary tightening by the FED later this week, making investors an absent party in the cryptocurrency market for the first few days of the week. As $1.01 is under fire, expect a break below to open the next leg lower towards $0.69, shedding another 30% of the price value for the altcoin. Cardano price sees investors absent in the build up to the FED rate decision Cardano participants seem to be split in half, with only sellers and bears present in the market, while bulls and investors remain on the sideline. The biggest reasons for this are the political rhetoric on Russia that is ramping up again this morning after statements that NATO and the US would send in more military material and troops. Financial markets, meanwhile, are awaiting the outcome of the FED monetary policy meeting Wednesday. These two tail risks keep price action muted or further to the downside, with investors sidelined. ADA this morning is drilling down on the monthly S1 support level and the historical $1.01 level that goes back to March 05. Once this breaks, expect not much support to be present until $0.69 where the monthly S2 support level kicks in at around $0.75, but the most significant historical level is at $0.69 from February 06. Expect buyers to come in there as that would mean that ADA price action is back at 0% on a Year-To-Date (YTD) performance. ADA/USD daily chart As the FED holds the keys for a turn in sentiment short-term, expect a pop higher to unfold very quickly. A knee jerk reaction would wash out many short positions and bring price action quickly back towards $1.40, at the level of the monthly pivot and the green ascending trend line. Should the message from the FED by Wednesday be very dovish and in favour of risk-on sentiment, expect a possible test of $1.68 further to the upside for this week.

  The S&P 500 index was trading 4% lower yesterday before closing 0.3% higher. So was it an upward reversal or just another temporary bottom? The broad stock market index accelerated its sell-off on Monday, as it reached the new local low of 4,222.62. The market was 596 points or 12.4% below the Jan. 4 record high of 4,818.62. Investors reacted to further Russia-Ukraine tensions. We are also waiting for series of quarterly earnings releases, tomorrow’s FOMC Statement release and Thursday’s important U.S. Advance GDP release. Overall, we had a big increase in volatility yesterday. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. This morning it is expected to open 1.6% lower and we may see more short-term volatility. Will it reach yesterday’s low again? Probably not – we’ll likely see a consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,420-4,450, marked by yesterday’s daily high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350. The support level is also at 4,220-4,250. The S&P 500 remains below a steep short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Microsoft Stocks Ahead of the Earnings Release Microsoft (MSFT) will release its quarterly earnings today after the session’s close. It’s an important stock, as it weighs 6.0%, just after the Apple’s 6.7%. So, the S&P 500 traders will be watching that release very closely. Microsoft accelerated its sell-off yesterday and it fell to the local low of $276.05. It was 21% below the Nov. 22 record high of $349.67. The stock remains below the downward trend line, but we can see some clear short-term oversold conditions. Let’s take a look at the Microsoft’s monthly chart. The stock broke below its multi-year hyperbolic run marked by the thick blue curve. The chart is logarithmic, and we can see an enormous rally that took place since 2013. The breakdown may lead to a change in trend or some medium- or long-term consolidation. It looks like a multi-year bull run is over. Futures Contract Got Close to the 4,200 Level Yesterday The S&P 500 futures contract accelerated its downtrend yesterday, as it fell close to the 4,200 level. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far, however there are some downtrend exhaustion signals. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index accelerated its sell-off yesterday and at some point it was 4% lower! But the market rebounded sharply following a “V” pattern reversal and it closed 0.3% higher. This morning it is expected to open 1.6% lower and we may see some further volatility. The coming quarterly earnings releases (MSFT on Tuesday, TSLA on Wednesday and AAPL on Thursday, among others) remain a bullish factor for stocks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Investors are also waiting for tomorrow’s Fed release and Thursday’s U.S. Advance GPD number release. If you want to be in the loop about any future market changes (with instant mail notifications!) sign up for the newsletter here. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open lower again; we may see a consolidation. Opening a speculative long position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The rate of the Russian currency reached 80.40 per dollar and 90.70 per euro yesterday after the close of the regular session. However, from these levels, the ruble seemed attractive for purchases. This brought the price back down from the psychologically significant round marks. The dollar was temporarily near peak levels, from where it has been unfolding since the end of 2014. Of course, the fact that the ruble previously went up from 80 does not allow one to blindly hope that the same will happen this time. However, it is a good reason to closely monitor the dynamics of the Russian currency, as well as the rhetoric of officials and the central bank when approaching these levels. Now it seems that geopolitics is more than embedded in premiums, which reduces the prices of Russian assets, including the ruble. However, there are other factors playing a part. In recent weeks, there has been increased attention to the Fed, which has entered the warpath against inflation, although for most of the past year, it was simply denied. If the tough tone of the American regulator causes pressure on the markets, this will be a new reason for the ruble to fall, even if not as sharp as under the influence of geopolitics. The best tactic for investors now is to watch the dynamics of the Russian currency near significant round levels. A sharp turn down in the EURRUB and USDRUB pairs will indicate strong purchases and will be another confirmation of how unbreakable these levels are. If we see a further slide of the ruble, we can say that the lowest point for it has not yet been reached. In general, it is worth being aware that the bottom may come very soon.

Bitcoin decreased by 0.6% on Wednesday, ending the day at around $36,400. Ethereum added 0.2%, while other top-ten altcoins mostly saw declines from 3.1% (Binance Coin) to 6.6% (Terra, an outsider of the day). According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 0.5%, to $1.73 trillion. Bitcoin showed positive dynamics all day against the backdrop of growing stock indices. Up until the Fed meeting, the first cryptocurrency was gaining over 6%, hitting 5-day highs above $38,800. However, BTC began to fall almost immediately after the announcement of the results of the Fed's two-day meeting. The regulator announced a curtailment of bond purchases in early March, as well as an imminent rate hike, followed by a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. The fall of bitcoin accelerated along with stock indices in half an hour when the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, started his press conference. He noted that rising inflation could force the regulator to raise interest rates more aggressively. The first cryptocurrency may finally complete its upward correction if risky assets resume and intensify the fall after the Fed meeting. In Russia, buyers are now engaged in the withdrawal of capital and deprive the country's economy of financing, as announced by the Bank of Russia. Last week, the regulator proposed to ban the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies in the territory of the Russian Federation. The State Duma and the Ministry of Finance, on the contrary, are in favour of regulation, not a ban on the industry. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday urged the government and the Central Bank to come to a consensus on the regulation of cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, Turkish President Erdogan instructed the ruling party to study the impact of cryptocurrencies on the economy. At the same time, the US Internal Revenue Service said that non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are used for illegal activities, and celebrities are spreading this by promoting NFTs.

While yesterday's FED decision to leave rates unchanged was mostly expected, the following press conference by chairman Powell left investors worried for the potential of more rate increases than previously anticipated. The head of the US central bank said the FED will adapt to changing economic conditions appropriately and still expects inflation to decrease this year, despite a variety of factors driving prices higher such as supply chain shortages and an unexpected increase in demand. Stock markets started Thursday trading lower after the brief recovery seen before the decision and are currently attempting to rebound as key earning reports continue to be released. Meanwhile, precious metals dropped significantly while a strengthening USD and rising yields continued to add pressure with gold falling to the lowest level in around 10 days while the USD index is testing 17-month highs. Despite this uncertainty across markets, investors could see yesterday’s decision as a sign the FED is willing to compromise and still continues to prioritize overall market performance despite record levels of inflation. Oil prices once again test multi year highsWhile much of recent attention has been on yesterday's FOMC decision where the US central bank decided to leave rates unchanged, oil prices have managed to recover from the recent pullback and have returned to test recently reached multi year highs. Brent is trading around $89,50 while WTI hovers at $88,25 as tensions relating to the Russia-Ukraine situation rise and as demand prospects continue to improve thanks to the strong pace of economic growth across the world. On the other hand, this price area has managed to act as a resistance in the past and unless we see a significant catalyst, prices might struggle to remain at these levels for an extended period as governments attempt to contain rising energy prices.

USDJPY tests major resistance The Japanese yen inched higher after January’s Tokyo CPI beat expectations. The US dollar found support in the daily demand zone around 113.50. And that is a sign that upbeat sentiment in the medium-term remains intact. A close above the psychological level of 115.00 attracted momentum traders and sped up the rebound. 115.60 at the origin of the January liquidation is key resistance. In fact, its breach could put the uptrend back on track. The RSI’s overextension may cause a limited pullback with 114.50 as the closest support. USOIL breaks to new high Oil climbed amid fears of disruption as tensions between Russia and the West grew. After a short-lived pause, WTI crude saw bids near a previous low at 82.00 which lies on the 20-day moving average. A break above the January peak at 87.80 indicates solid interest in keeping the rally in shape. As the bulls’ run continued, more trend-followers would push the price to 89.00. An overbought RSI temporarily restrained the fever, and buyers could see a pullback towards 85.00 as an opportunity. SPX 500 struggles for support Upcoming US rate hike still weighs on equity markets. A tentative break below last October’s low (4300) has put the S&P 500 on the defense. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart shows that sentiment could be deteriorating as price action struggles to stabilize. An oversold RSI led to a limited rebound as intraday sellers took profit. Nonetheless, buyers should be wary of catching a falling knife, leaving the index vulnerable to another sell-off if it drops below 4230. 4490 is the first resistance to clear to initiate a recovery.

The Russian ruble rolled back yesterday with a sharp movement from the iconic round levels. Such a reversal often signifies the end of the previous trend and the beginning of a new movement. If you look at USDRUB only as a course chart, then the corrective momentum has the potential to return the pair to 75 from the current 78 over the next couple of weeks. Seasonality, or rather the macroeconomic environment, is also turning towards the ruble. Exporters will have to convert last year's record earnings to pay taxes, some of which are paid once a year. The weakening of the ruble since the beginning of the year is a good opportunity to add interest to profits due to exchange rate differences. This is all in addition to record oil prices for 8 years and the suspension of foreign currency purchases for the Finance Ministry. We should also not forget about the high interest rates that the Bank of Russia has been aggressively raising since March last year. And the markets are waiting for another 100-point increase in two weeks to 9.5%, which further increases the profitability of the ruble money market. But, unfortunately, fundamental and macroeconomic factors are far from being the only components of the complex exchange rate equation. Geopolitics also play an important role. A clear improvement in relations between countries and the issue around Ukraine has not yet developed. Worse still, investors remain alert that the rhetoric of US and EU officials on the one hand and Russia on the other can quickly fall out of the constructive rut. At the same time, experienced market participants know that when the level of uncertainty rolls over, market dynamics (up or down at the end of the day) is the best filter for the news noise around us.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further gains of bullish bets in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators raised their bullish bets for a sixth consecutive week this week and for the seventh time in the past eight weeks. Over the last six-week time-frame, Euro bets have improved by a total of +43,439 contracts, going from -11,879 net positions on December 14th to +31,560 net positions this week. This week’s net speculator standing marks the highest level for Euro bets since August 17th, a span of twenty-three weeks. Joining the Euro (6,976 contracts) with positive changes this week were the yen (12,606 contracts), US Dollar Index (427 contracts), Australian dollar (5,181 contracts), Swiss franc (2,014 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,825 contracts) and Bitcoin (515 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the British pound sterling (-7,516 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,442 contracts), Brazil real (-1,247 contracts), Russian ruble (-2,478 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-5,710 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jan-25-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 52,328 72 36,861 89 -42,505 4 5,644 78 EUR 682,952 77 31,560 45 -56,258 60 24,698 15 GBP 182,040 27 -7,763 68 16,842 40 -9,079 37 JPY 197,830 53 -68,273 25 82,863 77 -14,590 18 CHF 39,742 14 -8,796 55 13,479 46 -4,683 50 CAD 146,448 28 12,317 60 -19,581 44 7,264 44 AUD 190,020 75 -83,273 8 97,749 92 -14,476 17 NZD 53,316 50 -10,773 53 13,281 51 -2,508 23 MXN 150,142 26 -790 27 -1,478 72 2,268 53 RUB 46,883 48 3,944 23 -4,288 76 344 44 BRL 46,657 54 -12,616 52 11,258 48 1,358 83 Bitcoin 11,756 64 -34 100 -478 0 512 25   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,434 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.8 3.4 14.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 84.6 3.8 – Net Position: 36,861 -42,505 5,644 – Gross Longs: 41,772 1,777 7,658 – Gross Shorts: 4,911 44,282 2,014 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.4 4.0 78.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.7 -9.8 3.0   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 31,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,976 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,584 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 55.5 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.6 63.8 8.0 – Net Position: 31,560 -56,258 24,698 – Gross Longs: 213,408 379,154 79,273 – Gross Shorts: 181,848 435,412 54,575 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.7 59.8 15.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.3 -11.2 -6.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -247 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.1 64.7 13.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.4 55.5 18.7 – Net Position: -7,763 16,842 -9,079 – Gross Longs: 36,666 117,812 24,909 – Gross Shorts: 44,429 100,970 33,988 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.4 39.6 36.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 31.0 -31.7 22.0   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -68,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,879 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 81.0 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.5 39.1 16.4 – Net Position: -68,273 82,863 -14,590 – Gross Longs: 15,866 160,178 17,950 – Gross Shorts: 84,139 77,315 32,540 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.9 77.3 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 5.9 6.4   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,810 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 69.4 25.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.2 35.5 36.9 – Net Position: -8,796 13,479 -4,683 – Gross Longs: 1,999 27,591 9,996 – Gross Shorts: 10,795 14,112 14,679 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.6 46.0 49.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.8 -1.5 5.2   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,492 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.3 39.3 21.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.9 52.6 16.6 – Net Position: 12,317 -19,581 7,264 – Gross Longs: 53,129 57,492 31,539 – Gross Shorts: 40,812 77,073 24,275 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 43.5 44.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.7 -12.1 -15.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -83,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,454 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 80.7 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.8 29.3 16.2 – Net Position: -83,273 97,749 -14,476 – Gross Longs: 15,121 153,386 16,371 – Gross Shorts: 98,394 55,637 30,847 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.6 91.8 17.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.1 -0.5 12.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,331 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 63.2 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 38.3 9.9 – Net Position: -10,773 13,281 -2,508 – Gross Longs: 15,948 33,712 2,784 – Gross Shorts: 26,721 20,431 5,292 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.2 50.9 23.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 7.9 -2.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,710 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,920 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.3 51.6 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.8 52.6 2.4 – Net Position: -790 -1,478 2,268 – Gross Longs: 66,449 77,473 5,892 – Gross Shorts: 67,239 78,951 3,624 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.0 72.2 52.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -5.8 17.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -12,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,369 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.9 45.6 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.0 21.5 4.7 – Net Position: -12,616 11,258 1,358 – Gross Longs: 21,434 21,274 3,541 – Gross Shorts: 34,050 10,016 2,183 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.7 48.4 83.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.7 8.4 21.0   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,422 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 63.3 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.0 72.4 3.6 – Net Position: 3,944 -4,288 344 – Gross Longs: 15,179 29,669 2,015 – Gross Shorts: 11,235 33,957 1,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.7 75.7 43.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -29.8 30.5 -20.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -549 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.8 2.4 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.1 6.5 8.1 – Net Position: -34 -478 512 – Gross Longs: 8,678 285 1,469 – Gross Shorts: 8,712 763 957 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 24.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.9 -60.9 -0.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Oil has added more than 14% this month, and Brent spot contracts are trading near $90 a barrel. Steady strengthening has been underway for the past two months after it became clear that the widespread Omicron strain is not leading to new travel restrictions. The November correction in oil served the bulls well by unloading the market from an overhang of bullish positions. We now see a resistance breakout, which has reversed oil twice before, in 2018 and 2021. On the fundamental analysis side, we also see a short-term bullish picture for oil. The Americans continue to ramp up drilling activity, bringing the number of working rigs to 610 last week. However, this is still not enough to significantly accelerate production. Production has stabilised around 11.7 mln BPD for the last nine weeks. These are significant volumes by historical standards: America only produced more from early 2019 to May 2020. But these volumes are not enough to stem the decline in stocks, which have returned to the region of the 2019 lows despite the sell-off and the strategic reserve. On the other hand, there are no signs yet that OPEC+ will accelerate its 400k BPD production increase plan at the beginning of the month. Moreover, there is a chronic over-quota, meaning countries are producing less than quotas allow. Some attribute this to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries pushing prices as high as possible. But several observers also point out that the cartel and many other countries cannot produce more because they have severely underinvested in past years. This argument is doubly true for Russia, the US, and several countries where production requires sustained investment. This sets the stage for oil to move into the $85-105 area in the first half of the year. However, oil bulls should remain cautious because of tightening monetary conditions in the US and other DM countries. In addition, production is rising, albeit slowly, and the demand ceiling is just around the corner.

  While last week's geopolitical tensions have eased a bit, the OPEC+ members’ meeting knocks at the door. How will it affect crude inventories? Crude oil prices paused this morning in the European trading session, the day after a new technical increase linked to the expiration of futures contracts. OPEC+ members, including Russia, are due to hold a meeting tomorrow in which speculative talks suggest that OPEC+ could announce a quicker increase in supply. On the other hand, US crude inventories should be scrutinized this week, with the first figure to be released later today by the American Petroleum Institute (API) at 2130 GMT / 1530 Chicago Time. Therefore, we could see a new rise in crude stockpiles of 2 million barrels. As a result, the oil market could be set to start a pullback down to previous support – $ 85.80 could represent a level that would attract more bulls, eventually. Regarding OPEC+ output, Saudi Arabia could decide to add barrels on top of its quota, as the kingdom is one of the only members of the cartel able to ramp up production, if necessary. On the US dollar side, the recent rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil. The overall inverted/negative correlation between the USD and black gold could catch up now as we have a greenback sliding after less hawkish comments from the Fed than expected and a barrel located in overbought territory. On the geopolitical scene, the slight ease of tensions from the past week – or, at least, the diminution of anxiety inducing news in the mainstream media headlines – is characterized by decreasing volatility. The latter is thus marked by a volatility index (VIX) – aka “Fear Index” sliding just below 25 today. WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) In summary, after such a rally in January 2022 on crude oil prices, we may start to see a weakening of the momentum, which could result in correcting oil prices, if such a scenario of supply and demand dynamics is followed on both sides (input rise / stockpiles accumulation) of the market. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Stocks extended their Friday’s rally yesterday, as the S&P 500 index broke above the 4,500 level. Is this still just an upward correction? The S&P 500 index gained 1.89% on Monday, as it extended its Friday’s gains and broke above the 4,500 level. It retraced more of its recent declines after breaking above the last week’s consolidation along the 4,300-4,400. On last Monday’s low of 4,222.62 the market was 596 points or 12.4% below the Jan. 4 record high of 4,818.62. And yesterday it reached the new local high of 4,516.89. It still looks like an upward correction within a downtrend, however, the market may be also trading within a new uptrend. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. On Friday it broke above a steep short-term downward trend line. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.3% higher following an overnight consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,500-4,550, marked by the previous local lows. The resistance level is also at 4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450, marked by the recent resistance level. The S&P 500 is now back above its early December local low, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Apple Rallies Again Recently, Apple stock fluctuated along the support level of $155.0-157.5 following mid-January downtrend ahead of its quarterly earnings release. The stock reversed the downtrend after breaking above a short-term consolidation and since the earnings release it gained more than 10%. The resistance level is at around $180.0-183.0, marked by the Jan. 4 record high of $182.94. Conclusion The S&P 500 index extended its Friday’s advance yesterday and it broke slightly above the 4,500 level. It still looks like an upward correction following mid-January declines and a rebound within a new medium-term downtrend. Stocks may further extend their uptrend, but there’s a risk of a short-term downward reversal. Today the index is expected to open 0.3% higher, and we may see some uncertainty and a consolidation along the 4,500 level. The market will be waiting for the quarterly earnings releases (AMD, Alphabet today after the session’s close, Meta tomorrow and Amazon on Thursday, among others) and Friday’s monthly jobs data announcement. There is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. We decided to close our profitable long position that was opened on Tuesday, Jan. 25 at the 4,335 level - S&P 500 continuous futures contract. The details of that position (stop-loss and profit target levels) were available for our subscribers in the premium Stock Trading Alerts. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 broke above the 4,500 level again; it still looks like an upward correction. We decided to close our speculative long position from last Tuesday (4,335 level) at the opening of today’s cash market’s trading session – a gain of around 175 index points. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

US stocks gained for the third consecutive session, and the gains seemed more stable this time as the VIX index retreats. The Federal Reserve (Fed) storm is coming to an end, with most hawkish expectations already factored in the asset prices, and the strong corporate earnings help equities bind up their wounds. We have two important events on today’s macro calendar: the OPEC meeting and the US ADP report. OPEC will discuss whether and by how much they should increase its oil output at today’s meeting. But whatever happens, crude prices are poised for an advance towards the three-digit levels in the coming months given that global glut declines faster than expected due to a stronger recovery in demand, and ongoing supply constraints. And the US jobs figures don't really matter. We guess that the December ADP number will be soft; we could even see a negative print today as the omicron may have taken a severe toll on the US jobs market in December. But it won’t matter for the Fed expectations! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:29 Good news for the cryptocurrencies! 1:46 US stocks extend recovery as volatility eases 2:25 Nasdaq rebounds on strong tech earnings 3:06 Google results impress! 3:53 Exxon, AMD, GM and Ford news 5:41 OPEC: don't hold your breath! 8:27 US jobs data doesn't matter anymore, but we still wacth! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

Bitcoin rose 0.6% on Tuesday, ending the day around $38,700. Ethereum added 3.7%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 are growing: from 0.5% (Binance Coin) to 12.8% (Solana). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, rose 1.5% to $1.86 trillion overnight. Bitcoin hit a week-and-a-half high above $39,000 on Tuesday but then pulled back, offsetting almost all of the gains. The first cryptocurrency was boosted by positive stock indexes and a weakening dollar, but sellers began taking profits on long positions. Over the last eight days, BTC gained almost 20%, recouping more than half of the failure of the second half of January, and buyers decided not to take risks. Ahead is solid psychological resistance at the circular $40,000 level, which supported the first half of January. Technically, Bitcoin has stalled its gains as it approaches the upper boundary of the descending channel. Traders are waiting for new signals about whether the recovery in risk demand will continue or whether the latest rebound will soon be choked off. The result of this struggle will determine whether we will see a break from the downtrend or whether the downtrend will continue again. El Salvador president Nayib Bukele is confident that bitcoin will still show tremendous growth. It's all about the fact that there are 50 million millionaires in the world. If they wanted to buy a coin, there wouldn't be enough for everyone, as the entire bitcoin issue wouldn't exceed 21 million. MicroStrategy added another 660 BTC on the recent market decline. In total, MicroStrategy already has more than 125,000 bitcoins. Russian government officials told Bloomberg that Russians own $214 billion worth of cryptocurrencies. That's about 12% of the total crypto market capitalisation.

Central bank decisions tend to be significant events in normal circumstances, but today’s decision could prove to be quite interesting for markets as different decisions are expected from each of today’s banks. While the Bank of England is set to raise its rate for the second time and signal further unwinding of its pandemic stimulus, the European central bank is expected to maintain it’s wait and see approach despite record inflation of 5,1% announced in January. According to these predictions, we could be seeing a strengthening of the pound thanks to the 0,5% interest rate, while we could sese a mixed reaction of the Euro as markets remain uncertain about the fragile economic recovery, especially given recent escalations on the Russia-Ukraine border which could destabilize the entire continent. Despite this, any surprises in today’s decisions or announcements could have far reaching effects on both the FX market and equities across Europe and the UK as central bankers struggle to balance record inflation with the post pandemic recovery. Can Amazon’s earnings support US indices? While we have seen a noticeable recovery of global indices over the past several days, yesterday’s disappointing earnings report from Meta (Facebook) saw the stock price drop and weigh on US markets as well as general sentiment. Meta’s results came one day after Alphabet announced it’s positive results and optimistic outlook and despite this mixed sentiment, we are seeing a slight pullback of stock markets as they await another mega-cap report. Amazon’s results could prove to be a significant catalyst for potential movements in the markets as a better than expected result could further boost the recent recovery while a disappointing one could drag markets further down. The company benefited greatly from the recent global situation as demand for its products and services increased noticeably thanks to a solid strategy and cost optimization. On the other hand, like many other companies that benefited from the stay-at-home lifestyle, it remains to be seen if that positive performance has carried over into this new phase.  

As usual for the first Friday of the month, investors will be focusing on the highly anticipated Non Farm Payroll report from the US which will give an overview of the job market situation for January and which is expected to show an increase of only 150,000. However, this report will be even more highly focused on since Wednesday's ADP report surprised markets with a significantly below expectation reading of -301,000 and pointed to increasing difficulties in the world's largest economy caused in part by the Omicron variant. While rising costs and supply concerns continue to impact the economic recovery, the FED maintains its position that full employment has been reached and that it will adjust it’s policies when it deems necessary in order to stimulate further growth. A better than expected result could encourage the Fed to continue its approach, while a disappointing reading could cause further concerns and may shift focus slightly on wage figures and their relation to record level inflation in the world's largest economy. Either way, today could see a noticeable increase in volatility as investors assess the situation and as stock markets attempt to stabilize after several weeks of significant moves. UK Construction PMI sparks slight optimism The UK construction sector continued to gain momentum after a difficult end to 2021 thanks to an improvement in commercial activity which helped offset a weak rise in house building. Improvements were also helped by a drop in cost inflation which fell to a 10-month low thanks to an easing of supply issues, which have been affecting the sector for months. As a result, commercial work helped construction growth reach a six-month high but with supplier lead times continuing to lengthen in January as staff shortages and a lack of haulage availability hindered deliveries, the situation continues to be uncertain. Oil prices reach multi year high as global tensions rise As the situation on the Ukraine-Russia border continues to escalate with several countries sending military personnel in an attempt to mitigate the issue, we are seeing another record increase in the price of oil with Brent reaching the highest level since October 2014 and breaking above $92. While OPEC announced it will increase its production by 400,000 barrels per day in March, the market remains concerned for a potential undersupply and general destabilization which could have consequences for the vast majority of sectors in economies as they are tied to oil prices for transport, shipping and energy. We have already noticed increasing energy costs across the world and further tensions could see these increase even more as uncertainty may lead to stockpiling and difficulties in general trade. Despite this, an easing of tensions with a continued global recovery could see the price retreat as long as a balance is maintained with suppliers in the short and medium term.  

While everyone is criticizing Russia, it’s easy to follow the US ‘savior’ narrative. However, what if we looked at what’s happening with oil in mind?Disclaimer to today’s article: I’m providing this analysis from a pure energy-focused perspective. I do not claim it represents THE right view, but rather one of those that won’t be as visible in the mainstream. It is interesting to add different views as pieces of the same puzzle. I am looking forward to reading yours in the comments!Picture Source: MemedroidSeveral port facilities in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have been the target of cyberattacks, prompting the judicial authorities to investigate the suspicions of extortion of funds at the expense of German operators in the oil sector. Indeed, it would appear that this series of computer hackings that began several days ago primarily concerns oil terminals. This is disrupting deliveries in several major European ports against a backdrop of soaring energy prices.After jumping the day before, thanks to the strengthening of the euro against the US dollar induced by ECB President Lagarde, oil prices continued to rise during the European session on Friday. Consequently, the fall in the greenback came on top of the recovery in demand, the fall in US crude inventories and the disruptions in supply to boost the price of black gold on the climb, the two crude benchmarks evolving above the psychological mark of 90 dollars a barrel, galvanized by solid demand and tensions on the offer coming from (geo-)political risks.Who is Provoking Who?The situation is rather complex on the geopolitical scene, with the US claiming that Russia is planning an invasion in Ukraine, whereas the US under NATO cover sent additional troops to Eastern Europe. The question that may arise here is: who is provoking who? So far, we haven’t seen Russia placing troops in Mexico, on the border with the United States. On the other hand, the Biden administration may encounter difficulties in accepting that the Kremlin can agree to various partnerships with its European neighbors, especially regarding more favorable energy supplies. Instead, it’s in the US interest to weaken those diplomatic relations, potentially leading to additional partnerships that may arise between the EU and Putin.And as we see the US-led narrative getting through the Western mainstream media with more aggressive, suspicious, and tense tones towards Russia, this obviously has the effect of pouring some oil on the Russian-Ukrainian fire. Furthermore, the US needs reasons to demonstrate that NATO is still alive and relevant while a number of countries are now questioning their own participation in the US-led military organisation created in 1949, even going so far as to show some doubts regarding its current motivations.Isolating the Russian BearBy maintaining a hostile tone towards Russia’s intentions, the US is consequently trying to isolate the Russian bear and push their European partners to blindly follow the “official narrative” (as the EU being part of NATO), which could possibly lead to new sanctions on Russia, the latter being able to retaliate by using its energy assets and capacities to deprive the EU of the Russian supplies, which currently on the gas side represent between 30% and 40% of total gas imports for Europe. Then, as a result, the Americans could start exporting more gas into Europe via Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipping – which again could benefit their energy-led commercial balance – the Europeans thus becoming the losing players in this game.As an example, we saw this week that a tanker loaded with LNG from the US will arrive at the LNG terminal in Świnoujście (Poland) at the end of this month, since Poland has LNG import capabilities which could be used to deliver US gas to Ukraine. Apparently, this is the second time (after the first one took place two years ago) that such gas deliveries are made by PGNiG, the Polish state-controlled oil and gas company, in cooperation with ERU (their strategic trading partner on the Ukrainian market).Actually, Ukraine suspended imports of Russian gas at the end of 2015. After relying on Russian gas imports for decades, they currently increasingly depend on imports from Europe. Since Ukraine has no LNG import capabilities, such US gas deliveries have been organized via a pipeline from the Polish terminal (through re-gasified LNG).WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart)Brent Crude Oil (BRJH22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart)Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart)In summary, geopolitics is always complex because it relies on individual economic and strategic interests of countries. The readings also depend on different views, and since there is always a lot of noise, it often helps to take some steps back in order to analyze the global situation from a different angle.Have a nice weekend! And remember to chime in on the conversation.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the decline for the US Dollar Index in the currency futures contracts. Dollar Index speculators cut back on their bullish bets this week for the third time in the past four weeks after previously pushing their bullish bets to a 117-week high on January 4th. Since that high-point, bullish bets have fallen by a total of -4,507 contracts and have now dropped the overall standing to a seven-week low. Despite the recent slide, the US Dollar Index bullish bets are still near the top of their range over the past three years with a speculator strength index score of 85.4 percent which is considered extremely bullish (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The Dollar Index price has had a volatile couple of weeks with a sharp rise to 97.22 on January 28th and then a sharp drop to 95.23 on February 3rd and closed the week at approximately 95.48. The currencies with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (7,633 contracts), Swiss franc (557 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,947 contracts), Russian ruble (10,207 contracts), Bitcoin (175 contracts), Australian dollar (3,444 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,520 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,290 contracts), Euro (-1,844 contracts), British pound sterling (-15,842 contracts), Brazil real (-737 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-925 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,477 81 34,571 85 -41,884 5 7,313 97 EUR 685,431 78 29,716 44 -57,467 59 27,751 20 GBP 184,007 28 -23,605 57 28,891 47 -5,286 45 JPY 194,435 51 -60,640 30 79,353 76 -18,713 9 CHF 41,054 16 -8,239 56 16,541 49 -8,302 39 CAD 145,082 27 18,264 65 -25,622 39 7,358 44 AUD 196,913 80 -79,829 11 96,098 91 -16,269 13 NZD 58,467 60 -11,698 52 14,019 52 -2,321 25 MXN 141,352 22 730 28 -3,848 71 3,118 56 RUB 46,358 47 14,151 47 -14,451 52 300 43 BRL 76,175 100 -13,353 51 10,467 47 2,886 100 Bitcoin 9,948 51 141 100 -491 0 350 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,861 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.7 3.8 16.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 78.0 3.3 – Net Position: 34,571 -41,884 7,313 – Gross Longs: 43,897 2,141 9,203 – Gross Shorts: 9,326 44,025 1,890 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.4 5.0 96.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -2.6 22.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,560 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 55.0 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 63.4 8.2 – Net Position: 29,716 -57,467 27,751 – Gross Longs: 213,563 376,805 83,675 – Gross Shorts: 183,847 434,272 55,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 59.5 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.2 -11.8 3.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.1 68.8 13.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 53.1 16.4 – Net Position: -23,605 28,891 -5,286 – Gross Longs: 29,597 126,536 24,845 – Gross Shorts: 53,202 97,645 30,131 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.0 46.8 44.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -25.0 16.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 82.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.7 41.7 17.8 – Net Position: -60,640 79,353 -18,713 – Gross Longs: 14,510 160,358 15,958 – Gross Shorts: 75,150 81,005 34,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.7 75.6 9.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.3 4.1 0.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,796 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 1.7 73.5 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 33.2 44.8 – Net Position: -8,239 16,541 -8,302 – Gross Longs: 698 30,161 10,103 – Gross Shorts: 8,937 13,620 18,405 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 49.4 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 0.7 -4.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,317 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 39.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 57.3 16.5 – Net Position: 18,264 -25,622 7,358 – Gross Longs: 52,386 57,524 31,356 – Gross Shorts: 34,122 83,146 23,998 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 39.4 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.3 -22.9 9.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 78.8 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 30.0 17.5 – Net Position: -79,829 96,098 -16,269 – Gross Longs: 18,835 155,124 18,128 – Gross Shorts: 98,664 59,026 34,397 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.8 90.6 12.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.5 -1.4 3.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,773 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.0 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 37.0 8.7 – Net Position: -11,698 14,019 -2,321 – Gross Longs: 19,205 35,644 2,783 – Gross Shorts: 30,903 21,625 5,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 52.0 25.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 7.9 4.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -790 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.0 57.2 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.5 59.9 2.3 – Net Position: 730 -3,848 3,118 – Gross Longs: 53,767 80,885 6,378 – Gross Shorts: 53,037 84,733 3,260 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 71.2 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -4.3 20.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.3 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.2 32.6 2.2 – Net Position: -13,353 10,467 2,886 – Gross Longs: 36,293 35,263 4,562 – Gross Shorts: 49,646 24,796 1,676 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 47.4 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 4.3 42.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,944 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.0 41.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 72.7 3.7 – Net Position: 14,151 -14,451 300 – Gross Longs: 25,048 19,255 2,024 – Gross Shorts: 10,897 33,706 1,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 52.4 42.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.1 -10.5 -26.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.3 3.1 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.8 8.0 8.9 – Net Position: 141 -491 350 – Gross Longs: 7,984 304 1,232 – Gross Shorts: 7,843 795 882 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 20.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.4 -43.4 -11.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the decline for the US Dollar Index in the currency futures contracts. Dollar Index speculators cut back on their bullish bets this week for the third time in the past four weeks after previously pushing their bullish bets to a 117-week high on January 4th. Since that high-point, bullish bets have fallen by a total of -4,507 contracts and have now dropped the overall standing to a seven-week low. Despite the recent slide, the US Dollar Index bullish bets are still near the top of their range over the past three years with a speculator strength index score of 85.4 percent which is considered extremely bullish (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The Dollar Index price has had a volatile couple of weeks with a sharp rise to 97.22 on January 28th and then a sharp drop to 95.23 on February 3rd and closed the week at approximately 95.48. The currencies with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (7,633 contracts), Swiss franc (557 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,947 contracts), Russian ruble (10,207 contracts), Bitcoin (175 contracts), Australian dollar (3,444 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,520 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,290 contracts), Euro (-1,844 contracts), British pound sterling (-15,842 contracts), Brazil real (-737 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-925 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,477 81 34,571 85 -41,884 5 7,313 97 EUR 685,431 78 29,716 44 -57,467 59 27,751 20 GBP 184,007 28 -23,605 57 28,891 47 -5,286 45 JPY 194,435 51 -60,640 30 79,353 76 -18,713 9 CHF 41,054 16 -8,239 56 16,541 49 -8,302 39 CAD 145,082 27 18,264 65 -25,622 39 7,358 44 AUD 196,913 80 -79,829 11 96,098 91 -16,269 13 NZD 58,467 60 -11,698 52 14,019 52 -2,321 25 MXN 141,352 22 730 28 -3,848 71 3,118 56 RUB 46,358 47 14,151 47 -14,451 52 300 43 BRL 76,175 100 -13,353 51 10,467 47 2,886 100 Bitcoin 9,948 51 141 100 -491 0 350 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,861 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.7 3.8 16.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 78.0 3.3 – Net Position: 34,571 -41,884 7,313 – Gross Longs: 43,897 2,141 9,203 – Gross Shorts: 9,326 44,025 1,890 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.4 5.0 96.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -2.6 22.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,560 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 55.0 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 63.4 8.2 – Net Position: 29,716 -57,467 27,751 – Gross Longs: 213,563 376,805 83,675 – Gross Shorts: 183,847 434,272 55,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 59.5 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.2 -11.8 3.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.1 68.8 13.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 53.1 16.4 – Net Position: -23,605 28,891 -5,286 – Gross Longs: 29,597 126,536 24,845 – Gross Shorts: 53,202 97,645 30,131 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.0 46.8 44.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -25.0 16.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 82.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.7 41.7 17.8 – Net Position: -60,640 79,353 -18,713 – Gross Longs: 14,510 160,358 15,958 – Gross Shorts: 75,150 81,005 34,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.7 75.6 9.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.3 4.1 0.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,796 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 1.7 73.5 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 33.2 44.8 – Net Position: -8,239 16,541 -8,302 – Gross Longs: 698 30,161 10,103 – Gross Shorts: 8,937 13,620 18,405 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 49.4 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 0.7 -4.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,317 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 39.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 57.3 16.5 – Net Position: 18,264 -25,622 7,358 – Gross Longs: 52,386 57,524 31,356 – Gross Shorts: 34,122 83,146 23,998 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 39.4 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.3 -22.9 9.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 78.8 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 30.0 17.5 – Net Position: -79,829 96,098 -16,269 – Gross Longs: 18,835 155,124 18,128 – Gross Shorts: 98,664 59,026 34,397 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.8 90.6 12.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.5 -1.4 3.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,773 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.0 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 37.0 8.7 – Net Position: -11,698 14,019 -2,321 – Gross Longs: 19,205 35,644 2,783 – Gross Shorts: 30,903 21,625 5,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 52.0 25.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 7.9 4.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -790 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.0 57.2 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.5 59.9 2.3 – Net Position: 730 -3,848 3,118 – Gross Longs: 53,767 80,885 6,378 – Gross Shorts: 53,037 84,733 3,260 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 71.2 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -4.3 20.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.3 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.2 32.6 2.2 – Net Position: -13,353 10,467 2,886 – Gross Longs: 36,293 35,263 4,562 – Gross Shorts: 49,646 24,796 1,676 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 47.4 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 4.3 42.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,944 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.0 41.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 72.7 3.7 – Net Position: 14,151 -14,451 300 – Gross Longs: 25,048 19,255 2,024 – Gross Shorts: 10,897 33,706 1,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 52.4 42.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.1 -10.5 -26.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.3 3.1 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.8 8.0 8.9 – Net Position: 141 -491 350 – Gross Longs: 7,984 304 1,232 – Gross Shorts: 7,843 795 882 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 20.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.4 -43.4 -11.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Bitcoin is up 9% over the past week, ending at around $41,700. Ethereum is up 15%. Altcoins also woke up from hibernation and grew stronger than the market: from 5.8% (Binance Coin) to 17.3% (Solana).Over the same period, the total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 11.2%, up to $1.99 trillion.The primary growth of the crypto market last week came on Friday when bitcoin at the end of the day soared by 10% in a few hours. The increase was not prevented even by strong data on the US labor market, which came out a couple of hours before the jump.It is worth noting that the Nonfarm Payrolls can force the Fed to move faster to tighten monetary policy. Against this background, the yield of 10-year Treasuries jumped above 1.93%, hitting new two-year highs, and this could soon lead to sales in the stock market. If cryptocurrencies manage to resist and continue to grow, this will be a serious trend reversal order. Just like on Friday, when investors decided to buy BTC in order to protect investments from inflation.Since then, Bitcoin has already added 17%, moving into a phase of an active uptrend. Technically, the first cryptocurrency broke the resistance of the descending corridor. Accelerating growth and steady buying throughout the weekend indicate a strong bullish momentum. Cautious investors are now looking at the test of the 50-day moving average. Previously, repeatedly fixing above this line preceded a multi-month uptrend.Potentially, this will also be lost now. Therefore, some players consider this impulse as an important first signal of a recovery in demand for risky assets, despite fears of a rate increase.Meanwhile, billionaire Ray Dalio has warned that a number of governments could outlaw cryptocurrencies. The government of the Russian Federation is considering introducing a tax on miners of at least 15%. According to the authorities, the tax on all participants in the crypto market can bring up to 1 trillion rubles to the treasury. In the meantime, the Fed has presented the Digital Dollar White Paper, but the issue of its future launch has not yet been resolved.

WTI has erased most of an earlier session dip under $91.00 but has been choppy in $91.00-$92.00 rangesSome attributed earlier session profit-taking to positive signs in US/Iran nuclear talks. Traders are also mulling developments regarding geopolitical, near-term supply concerns and ongoing strong demand.WTI was hit by profit-taking in early European trade, dipping at one point underneath the $91.00s. However, trade has since been choppier in both directions, with WTI prices more recently swinging between the $91.00-$92.00 area. At current levels around $91.50, front-month WTI futures trade with losses of about 50 cents on the day and remain only a few bucks below recent seven-year highs above $93.00, as the market mood for the most part remains bullish. Market commentators had cited positive signs on the US/Iran nuclear negotiations front as one trigger for profit-taking earlier in the day; the US restored sanction waivers to Iran that will allow international nuclear cooperation projects. Although the waivers hardly do anything to help the Iranian economy, market commentators said it was a sign of goodwill from the US that showed the country is intent on finding a deal.Iranian crude oil (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/commodities/energy/oil) exports, hobbled by strict US sanctions, currently stand at about 700K barrels per day (BPD) versus pre-US sanction levels of well over 2M BPD. If the US and Iran can agree on a deal to return to the 2015 nuclear pact, this jump in oil exports could help ease upward pressure on crude oil markets in the near term. However, analysts at Fujitomi Securities cautioned that “investors expect more twists and turns in the U.S.-Iranian talks and no agreement to be reached anytime soon.”WTI’s impressive intra-day recovery speaks to the ongoing bullishness of the mood prevailing in crude oil markets. As the US continues to warn that a Russian military incursion into Ukraine could be imminent, the amount of geopolitical risk premia priced into global oil markets remains high. Oil markets will focus on a meeting in Moscow between French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin later in the day, with no progress towards dialing down tensions expected.In the meantime, recent cold weather in the US has hampered near-term output, with Reuters reporting that two major refineries with a combined more than 800K BPD in output were knocked offline. That contributes to the narrative of near-term tightness in global oil markets, just as the Saudis were reported (by Bloomberg) to have raised official oil selling prices for Asian, North American and European customers. Many analysts will remain comfortable in the calls for WTI to hit $100.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin showed a growing momentum at the beginning of the day and reached five-week highs above $45,000. After a short-term rise above this level, a corrective decline began in the middle of the day. The benchmark cryptocurrency was losing more than $2,000 despite the rise in stock indices. There was a sharp rebound towards the end of the day and closed the day almost unchanged as a result. Recovery in institutional demand for stocks late in the day on Tuesday helped Bitcoin stay above the 50-day moving average as well. Continued buying on the decline to this level will keep the technical picture bullish as upside momentum develops to $49-50K. A sharp dip lower today or tomorrow will raise the issue of a false break and bring the sellers back into play, heading for $37-38K. It became known that at the end of last week, the Canadian exchange fund Purpose Bitcoin ETF bought 1.75 thousand BTC in two days, which could lead to a sharp increase in prices. In addition, Valkyrie Investments has received approval from the SEC to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on the shares of companies that receive at least 50% of their profits through mining. At the same time, the US authorities confiscated bitcoins stolen from the Bitfinex crypto exchange in 2016 for $3.6 billion and detained those involved in the hack. The Russian Federation government approved the concept of the Ministry of Finance for the regulation of cryptocurrencies: a joint bill should be ready by February 18. Overall, Bitcoin gained 0.3% on Tuesday, ending the day around $44,200. Ethereum was down 1.3%, while the other leading altcoins in the top ten were mixed from a 5.7% decline (Binance Coin) to an increase of 5.4% (XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 1.2% over the day to $2.09 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index increased by 0.8% over the day, to 40%.  

  The S&P 500 index remains close to the 4,500 level following last week’s retreat. Was this just a downward correction? The broad stock market index lost 0.37% on Monday, as it continued to fluctuate within a short-term consolidation. The broad stock market’s gauge retraced some of its recent rally, as it fell to the local low of 4,451.50 on Friday. The market found a short-term bottom after reversing from last Wednesday’s local high of 4,595.31. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower. We will likely see more consolidation along the 4,500 level. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,540, market by the recent local highs. The resistance level is also at 4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450. The S&P 500 continues to trade below the November-January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Relatively Weaker The technology Nasdaq 100 index followed a similar path last week, as it retraced some of the rally. It remains relatively weaker than the broad stock market. The support level is at 13,800-14,000, and the resistance level is at 15,000-15,200. Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It broke above the short-term downward trend line a week ago before rallying up to around the 4,600 level. It’s trading along the 4,500 level after backing from the Wednesday’s high of 4,586. The market remains close to the resistance level of its previous local lows, but there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. So in our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index trades within a short-term consolidation following the decline from last week’s Wednesday’s local high. The market will likely extend its consolidation, as investors will be waiting for the Thursday’s Consumer price index release. The quarterly earnings season is mostly over now, and there is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely trade within a consolidation ahead of the important Thursday’s consumer inflation number release. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

While Oil prices have seen significant movements in recent times, with Brent gaining over 20% from the start of 2022 and reaching the highest level since october 2014, we are beginning to see a slight pullback despite an unexpected inventory drop shown in yesterday's API report. Talks surrounding the Iran nuclear deal, which could bring around 2 mpd supply into the markets, have helped prices retreat while easing of tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation have also boosted sentiment. On the other hand, while these are positive signs the situation remains uncertain as any further escalation could see supply significantly disrupted and as the Iran deal remains slightly out of reach for the time being. OPEC appears to be nearing production capacity and optimistic forecasts point to a rise in demand throughout the year so unless some progress is made among other producers, those supply concerns could translate into record prices and subsequent impacts on a variety of sectors. Today’s EIA inventory report could prove to be important for short term price action as a confirmation of the API report could potentially increase concerns regarding short term price stability.   Stock markets continue to recover as investors await earning reports from Uber and Disney European stock markets are extending the upward move after a positive Asian session and following a higher close of US indices despite some general uncertainty seen across markets. Stock prices have been increasingly volatile on the back of recent geopolitical tensions and some surprising earnings reports released during this earning season. Fiscal and monetary policy has also greatly impacted investor sentiment but many appear to be reassured for the time being as we see a continuation of the recent rebound across global markets while investors await today’s key earnings announcements from major companies like Uber technologies and Disney among others. While it remains to be seen whether these will manage to meet expectations, the situation remains quite fragile with many markets experiencing significant volatility and as several central bankers are also due to speak today.   Barratt Developments strong results boost investor confidence Barratt Developments report exceeded expectations and pointed to a stronger recovery from covid levels with over 18,000 home constructions and strong revenue figures. The company expects this positive performance to continue throughout 2022 and despite some uncertainty surrounding the global economic environment, the general market situation appears to favor such optimistic performance. It remains to be seen if the company will manage to successfully implement its strategy or if it will encounter issues driven by record inflation and potential supply chain disruptions.

WTI crude oil has lost around 3% since the start of the week, bouncing back to $88.4 from $91.2 at the beginning of the week. The observed pullback looks like a technical correction to remove local overheating. This correction comes against a relatively bullish background. Yesterday's data marked a new drop in inventories, both commercial and strategic reserves. The Biden administration has said it may accelerate sales from reserves. Perhaps these comments were a formal excuse for profit-taking in the market. However, the start of these sales came with a two-month rally. The government's intention to sell off reserves may even have contributed to the rise in prices. The desire to bring prices down is hurting US production ramp-up plans. Aggressive support for alternative energy has made the hydrocarbon industry unattractive to banks. As a result, we are seeing a much slower production recovery than in the recovery periods of the last decade. The number of rigs in operation is rising methodically, but it seems that new wells are only marginally offsetting spent ones. Also, OPEC has repeatedly suggested that the industry's severe underinvestment during the pandemic makes it impossible to ramp up production quickly now. Despite a favourable price environment, the cartel has not picked up quotas in recent months. It is also worth mentioning that countries are not imposing new travel restrictions but are loosening them more and more, supporting energy demand. Also, commodity prices are supported by political pressure on Russia, which threatens gas supplies to Europe and further fuels price increases. Locally, oil remains vulnerable to a corrective pullback after a more than two-month rally with potential targets at $84.5 for WTI - a 23.6% pullback from the rally and the October peak area. A deeper retracement scenario suggests a pullback to $80.3. For Brent, the near-term target is $86-87, with a deeper retracement to $83.

On Thursday, the Russian ruble rolled back to 74.50, and on Friday morning, it rewrote these local lows to recover to the levels from which it started the year, winning back the failure in geopolitics. However, the strengthening of the ruble took place not so much on political de-escalation but on the actions of the Bank of Russia. And today, we are waiting for new actions that can both strengthen the positions of the Russian currency and return the ruble to the path of decline. We are inclined to believe that the CBR will remain on the side of the ruble. When making a decision on the key rate, the CBR will weigh the actual and expected inflation rates both in Russia and in the world, and there is little reason to relax. The latest estimates of inflation in Russia have shown that the annual rate of price growth has accelerated again, requiring a further tightening of the screws. Under these conditions, the Bank of Russia is likely to raise the rate by 100 points - the second time in a row. Previously, the CBR maintained parity between the rate and the annual inflation rate, but now it makes sense to step up pressure to suppress inflation. At the same time, we should be prepared to hear comments that such a sharp increase may not be required in the future. Based on inflationary trends, the key rate could reach its 10% ceiling for this tightening cycle before the end of March and then hold at this level for another year. Another factor is the volatility of the ruble and geopolitics. In January, the CBR decided to suspend purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance in order to reduce pressure on the ruble in the Russian financial market. The biggest risk for the ruble is that the CBR will announce today that it is returning to buying foreign currency. Such a move could hit the ruble hard. However, we believe that it would be logical for the CBR to extend the pause in purchases at least until the end of the exercises in Belarus, that is, until the end of February. The strengthening of the ruble, as a side effect of expensive oil and the suspension of foreign currency purchases, can additionally work to slow down import inflation and consumer inflation in general. If we are right, then the ruble may remain in an uptrend until the end of February, rushing to the 71 area by the end of the month. However, it is still difficult to expect a steady growth of the Russian currency to the area below 70.

Cryptocurrencies were under the pressure of strong data on inflation in the United States on Thursday, which has updated 40-year highs. Such values can force the Fed to raise interest rates faster, which is negative for all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin showed high volatility during trading, updating early January highs above $45,800 under the influence of a weakening dollar. However, towards the end of the day, the first cryptocurrency began to decline along with stock indices: the S&P500 lost 1.8%, the high-tech Nasdaq fell 2.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed for the second day is exactly in the middle of the scale, at around 50 (neutral). However, now the stock markets are having an increased impact on the dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum, in which the prospects for monetary policy are being reassessed. The corresponding index is now in the fear territory, near the 37 mark. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being bought back on dips towards the 50-day average, which keeps the picture bullish. However, in the event of a prolonged sale of shares, the first cryptocurrency will not hold and risks pulling the entire market with it. Fitch has downgraded El Salvador due to its acceptance of bitcoin as legal tender. In March, the country will issue the first $1 billion bitcoin bonds. There is interesting news from America as well. The largest investment company BlackRock is going to launch a cryptocurrency trading service. Bank Of America refuses to recognize Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, pointing to the strengthening of the correlation between BTC and the S&P500 stock index. And at JPMorgan, they currently consider the “fair” quote for bitcoin to be $38,000. In Russia, the government has completed the drafting of a bill on the circulation of digital currencies. The Ministry of Finance proposed establishing a transitional period for individuals before introducing a tax on income from crypto assets. Overall, Bitcoin lost 1.3% on Thursday, ending the day around $44,100. Ethereum fell 4.3%, while other top ten altcoins declined from 0.5% (Avalanche) to 6.2% (Solana and Polkadot). The total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.8% over the day, to $2.08 trillion. Altcoins showed a leading decline, which led to an increase in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.5%, to 40.1%

  Stocks retraced their Wednesday’s advance yesterday. Was this a downward reversal, or just a correction within an uptrend? The S&P 500 index lost 1.81% on Thursday, Feb. 10 after gaining 1.5% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to higher-than-expected inflation number release. Investors fear that the rising inflation will lead to a faster tightening by the Fed. On Wednesday the index got close to its previous Wednesday’s local high of 4,595.31, and yesterday it fell to the 4,500 level (the daily low was at 4,484.31). This morning the market will likely open 0.2% higher after an overnight decline. We may see some more short-term uncertainty. For now, it looks like a flat correction or a consolidation within an uptrend from the Jan. 24 local low of 4,222.62. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,550-4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,450-4,500. The S&P 500 index is close to the previous Friday’s daily closing price, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Trades Along the 4,500 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It broke above the short-term downward trend line in late January before rallying up to around the 4,600 level. Since then, it has been fluctuating along the 4,500 level. The market remains at the resistance level of its previous local lows, but there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. So in our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely extend its almost two-week long consolidation after rallying from the mentioned late January local low. So far, it looks like a consolidation within an uptrend. The quarterly earnings season is mostly over now, and there is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely open slightly higher this morning and we may see more fluctuations along the 4,500 level. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the strong gains in bullish bets for the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators boosted their bullish bets this week by the largest one-week amount (+33,599 contracts) on record, according the CFTC data going back to 1995. This surge in bullish sentiment pushed the overall net speculator standing for Brazilian Reals into bullish territory for the first time in nineteen weeks, dating back to September 28th. There has been a surge of trading going on in this market over the past couple of weeks with open interest increasing dramatically. Open interest (OI) for the Brazilian currency jumped on February 2nd to a total of 76,175 contracts which marked the highest OI level of the previous 381 weeks, dating all the way back to September of 2014. The previous ten weeks had seen an average open interest of less than half (ten week average of 33,492 contracts) of the February 2nd total. This week’s open interest fell a bit to 64,283 contracts but still was the second highest open interest of the past thirty-six weeks and with all this activity going on, this is a currency to watch. Joining the Brazil real (33,599 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Euro (9,126 contracts), Japanese yen (1,492 contracts), British pound sterling (15,060 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,332 contracts), Mexican peso (514 contracts) and the Russian ruble (1,292 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-806 contracts), Australian dollar (-5,912 contracts), Canadian dollar (-3,378 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,160 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (-460 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 53,603 75 33,765 84 -40,826 7 7,061 94 EUR 700,098 83 38,842 47 -73,252 55 34,410 31 GBP 197,948 37 -8,545 68 9,323 35 -778 54 JPY 196,478 53 -59,148 31 75,957 74 -16,809 13 CHF 41,481 16 -9,399 54 16,918 50 -7,519 41 CAD 145,208 27 14,886 62 -16,958 45 2,072 34 AUD 196,403 80 -85,741 5 98,357 92 -12,616 22 NZD 54,877 53 -10,366 54 12,733 50 -2,367 25 MXN 134,257 19 1,244 28 -4,073 71 2,829 55 RUB 39,233 35 15,443 50 -16,839 47 1,396 72 BRL 64,283 81 20,246 96 -22,432 4 2,186 92 Bitcoin 9,886 50 -319 90 -189 0 508 24   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,571 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 75.3 5.9 16.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.3 82.0 3.3 – Net Position: 33,765 -40,826 7,061 – Gross Longs: 40,370 3,150 8,841 – Gross Shorts: 6,605 43,976 1,780 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 5.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.0 6.8 93.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.2 2.7 15.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,716 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 54.6 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.7 65.1 7.6 – Net Position: 38,842 -73,252 34,410 – Gross Longs: 218,973 382,426 87,725 – Gross Shorts: 180,131 455,678 53,315 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 55.0 31.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.0 -15.5 15.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,060 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,605 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 60.7 13.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 56.0 14.0 – Net Position: -8,545 9,323 -778 – Gross Longs: 44,709 120,220 26,951 – Gross Shorts: 53,254 110,897 27,729 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.8 35.2 54.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.4 -30.0 17.8   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,640 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 81.2 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.1 42.6 17.5 – Net Position: -59,148 75,957 -16,809 – Gross Longs: 15,692 159,601 17,609 – Gross Shorts: 74,840 83,644 34,418 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.7 73.9 13.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.8 1.8 5.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,239 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.0 72.8 23.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 32.1 41.8 – Net Position: -9,399 16,918 -7,519 – Gross Longs: 1,234 30,215 9,838 – Gross Shorts: 10,633 13,297 17,357 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.5 49.9 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 1.9 -8.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,264 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 40.2 18.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.5 51.9 17.5 – Net Position: 14,886 -16,958 2,072 – Gross Longs: 54,762 58,404 27,480 – Gross Shorts: 39,876 75,362 25,408 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.1 45.4 33.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.4 -16.7 -2.2   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 79.0 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.5 28.9 16.3 – Net Position: -85,741 98,357 -12,616 – Gross Longs: 17,323 155,203 19,485 – Gross Shorts: 103,064 56,846 32,101 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.3 92.3 21.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.7 -0.8 12.5   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,698 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 61.2 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.2 38.0 10.0 – Net Position: -10,366 12,733 -2,367 – Gross Longs: 17,168 33,591 3,097 – Gross Shorts: 27,534 20,858 5,464 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.9 50.0 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 4.1 -7.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 730 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.6 61.3 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 64.3 2.4 – Net Position: 1,244 -4,073 2,829 – Gross Longs: 45,097 82,287 6,067 – Gross Shorts: 43,853 86,360 3,238 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.9 71.1 55.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.4 -5.2 9.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 33,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,353 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.5 17.6 5.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.0 52.5 2.3 – Net Position: 20,246 -22,432 2,186 – Gross Longs: 49,170 11,336 3,666 – Gross Shorts: 28,924 33,768 1,480 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.7 3.5 91.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.2 -37.2 28.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,151 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.1 43.4 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.7 86.3 3.0 – Net Position: 15,443 -16,839 1,396 – Gross Longs: 19,657 17,021 2,555 – Gross Shorts: 4,214 33,860 1,159 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.9 46.9 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.5 -15.9 -0.7   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.4 3.8 14.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 81.6 5.7 9.8 – Net Position: -319 -189 508 – Gross Longs: 7,751 376 1,474 – Gross Shorts: 8,070 565 966 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.9 24.8 24.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 2.9 -5.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Given last week’s strong price action and gold’s intraday resilience, it is now very likely that gold indeed is breaking out of the multi-month consolidation triangle. Actually, this large and symmetrical triangle had been building for more than a year, at least. However, the correction in gold began on August 7th, 2020. Now it looks like the breakout is in process. Typically, traders tend to aggressively buy into such a breakout. And given Friday’s sharp spike higher, it actually looks exactly like this. Hence, expect more volatility and a sharp move higher as the direction of gold’s next move has become more obvious. Please note, that it is rather challenging to draw and determine the correct triangle, because gold has been in a tricky sideways market for such a long time and many trend-lines have been invalidated during this messy period. But at the latest, a weekly close above US$1,875 should confirm the breakout. This should unleash enough energy to push gold prices quickly towards US$1,900 and even US$1,950 within a few weeks. Obviously, that would fit very well with gold’s seasonal cycle, which is bullish until the end of February at least, but often saw gold rallying into mid of march, too. Consumer sentiment at 10-year low but Fed wants to hike and taper From a fundamental perspective, it leaves us speechless how the Fed can go on a hiking rampage while consumer sentiment is at a 10-year low. While the confidence in governments worldwide is collapsing and inflation is spiking higher, raising rates will have zero impact upon supply shortages. Instead, it will make these shortages only worse and bankrupt more companies in the supply chain. Also, it will bankrupt emerging markets, as the strong dollar has already been putting so much pressure on dollar indebted nations and creditors. It’s all a big mess, and we believe there is no way out. That’s why the warmongering industrial and military complex of the US is desperately trying to push Russia into an attack on Ukraine! Without showing any proof, the Biden administration and their mouthpiece “the mainstream media” have been pushing people’s focus on fears that Russia will soon invade Ukraine. Another noteworthy fundamental observation: Gold’s correction began in earnest when Pfizer & Biontech announced their vaccine on November 9th, 2020. In a first reaction, gold immediately sold off $150 on that same day. Many more similar large red daily candles followed over the last 16 months, destroying the confidence of the gold bugs and shifting millions of dollars to the short sellers. Now that more and more very serious questions about the vaccines are debated in the news, it would make sense for gold to run back to US$1,950. This was the level where gold was trading back on November 9th, 2020. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the weekly chart, gold has been slowly but surely progressing into the apex of the triangle over the last few months. It now looks like Gold is breaking out with vengeance. Theoretically, the resistance zone between US$1,850 and US$1,875 could still stop the bullish train. The weekly Bollinger Bands (US$1,864) sits right in this zone and should at least challenge the bulls for some days. However, the weekly stochastic has just given a new buy signal. On top, the oscillator has been making higher lows since March 2021. A measured move out of this triangle could take gold to around US$1,950 to US$1.975 until spring. The monthly Bollinger Band ($1,975) could become the logical target! Overall, the weekly chart is becoming more and more bullish, suggesting that gold can at least move around US$80 to US$100 higher. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the daily chart, gold has been struggling with the upper triangle resistance in November and January. Each time, the bears managed to push back. Now it looks like the bulls are finally successful. The fierce and sharp pullback two and half weeks ago had created a nice oversold setup which became the launching pad for the ongoing attack. Since then, the slow stochastic has been nicely turning around. This buy signal is still active and has not yet reached the overbought zone. Thanks to Friday’s big green candle, the bulls are now bending the upper Bollinger Band (US$1,858) to the upside. To conclude, the daily chart is bullish, and gold should have more upside. If the bulls continue their attack, we could see prices directly exploding for four to seven days. More likely would be a consolidation. Only with prices below US$1,835 the breakout would have failed. In that rather unlikely case, the picture could quickly turn ugly again. Conclusion: Gold is breaking out! In mid of December, gold made an important low around US$1,752. Back then, most gold bugs had enough and did throw in the towel after a very difficult and messy 16-month correction. Gold, silver and the mining stock had become the most hated asset. But actually, all that gold might have been doing was building an epic base and a launch pad to start the next leg higher within its bull market. Overall, we expect that Gold is breaking out after a short consolidation! The successful breakout above resistance between US$1,850 and US$1,875 should happen within the next few days or weeks. This should then lead to higher prices and gold will likely run towards US$1,950, at least. However, we are not sure yet whether this will also bring an attack towards the round number resistance at US$2,000. Given the fact, that gold usually starts to struggle somewhere in spring, the ongoing rally could still be just a counter-trend move within the larger ongoing consolidation/correction. Hence, we are short-term very bullish, mid-term neutral and long-term very bullish for gold. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 13th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

Bitcoin strengthened in the first half of the week and the middle, having managed to test the highs of early January above $45,800. The situation changed on Thursday after the release of US inflation data, which updated the maximum levels for 40 years, and US stock indices fell. This had a negative impact, among other things, on cryptocurrencies, which showed a significant correlation with other risky assets. Late last week, the Fed announced an unscheduled meeting to be held today, February 14th. As a result of the meeting, the regulator may well raise rates without waiting til March. Moreover, even a double increase is possible, by 0.50%. Tightening monetary policy can hit all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. On February 12th, the bitcoin network hashrate updated all-time highs above 248 EH/s. The indicator indicates the strengthening of the position of the blockchain and the development of its infrastructure. Kathy Wood, head of investment company ARK Invest, actively sold shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust backed by bitcoin throughout February. Note that these securities were purchased in July last year, at the time of the BTC reversal upwards. The Central Bank of Hungary has now called on EU countries to ban cryptocurrency trading and mining. The Bank of Russia announced its desire to reduce the involvement of citizens in the crypto market. For example, the Ministry of Finance proposed limiting the list of cryptocurrencies traded in Russia. In general, Bitcoin rose by 1.6% over the past week, ending it at around $42,200. Ethereum lost 5.1%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also mostly sank: from 4.3% (Binance Coin) to 19% (Solana) for a week. The exception was the XRP token, which showed a 20% increase. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, decreased by 1.5% over the week to $1.96 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose by 1% to 40.7% due to the weakening of altcoins.

The week starts on quite a tense note as the tensions between Ukraine and Russia don’t seem to be headed in the right direction with reports on Friday hinting at the possibility of a Russian invasion before ‘the end of the Beijing Olympics’. European equities are deep in the red, with FTSE 100 somehow doing less bad than the others on rising energy and commodity prices, but the Euro Stoxx is already down 2.33% and the DAX by 2.85%. US crudes flirts with the $95 per barrel, and gold welcomes decent safe-haven capital. While US sovereigns, energy and gold are the favorite destinations for those who are seeking protection in the actual environment, any relief on the Ukrainian front could send the recent gains in oil and gold crumbling. On the economic agenda: US PPI and FOMC minutes will be closely watched. We know that engineering a policy that would bring inflation down to the 2% target in the US would also bring an unnecessary stress on the market and on the economy. Would that help cooling the Fed hawks? Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:26 Market update 2:19 Rising oil also fears central bank hawks 3:28 Gold, the safe haven 4:48 Bitcoin under pressure 5:42 Economic calendar: US PPI, FOMC minutes, UK, CAD, JP inflation 8:04 Corporate calendar: Nvidia, Walmart, Roblox Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

The strengthening of the ruble was interrupted on Friday as geopolitical factors again came to the forefront, pushing aside the fundamental and long-term factors that supported the ruble. The Bank of Russia did everything in its power to support the Russian currency: the rate was raised by 100 points to 9.5%, investors were warned of further increases, and the pause in foreign currency purchases for the Finance Ministry was extended. Nevertheless, before the weekend, investors again preferred to reduce the risks of owning Russian assets against the background of the fact that several Foreign Ministries of different countries called on their citizens to leave Ukraine. For the markets, this is a signal that a new round of geopolitical tensions and the negotiations in the outgoing week did not bring the long-awaited agreement. Against the backdrop of news about geopolitics, the RTS index lost more than 4.6%, and the Moscow Exchange fell by 3%. It seems that the Russian market will have to experience the convulsions of geopolitics more than once for at least another week. Fixing the ruble above 76.40 per dollar and 86.60 per euro will mean that the period of corrective rollback of the ruble has come to an end, and we need to prepare for a new wave of growth. But this is from the standpoint of technical analysis. In practice, geopolitics now rules the roost, where détente can be as fast as escalation. At the same time, fundamental factors (high rates of the Central Bank, expensive oil, and a pause in foreign currency purchases) continue to play on the side of the ruble. These factors promise to return the ruble to the path of growth very quickly, repeating the dynamics of the previous two weeks. If we are right, then the ruble may remain in an upward trend until the end of February, rushing to the area of 71 per dollar and 83 per euro by the end of the month.

The news from US intelligence that the Russian aggression on Ukraine was a done deal spooked markets on Friday. While Russia denied it, the situation doesn't seem to be getting any better. How will markets react to further developments? Prepare for various options Markets are reacting and investors should prepare for potentially turbulent times. This is why we present 3 potential scenarios of the Ukrainian conflict and highlight key markets that may be affected. Watch these markets: Stocks – Russian banks, RTS and… Nasdaq VTB and Sberbank – the names of these institutions are nearly synonymous with sanctions on Russia. Little wonder these stocks are among top choices on the equity side. Investors may also focus on the diversified RTS Index where Sberbank has 14% share – the index has plenty of energy stocks as well and is down 30% from late 2021 highs. A less obvious choice is Nasdaq (US100). Why would US tech stocks react to the conflict in Europe? Well, since this market has its own share of problems (mainly Fed tightening), other bad news could impact investor sentiment even further. Commodities – Oil, Gold, Platinum, Palladium and Wheat Russia is the second largest exporter of Oil and the commodity is also a substitute for natural gas which has already been in tight supply in Europe. Gold has traditionally been a "top pick”for times of geopolitical uncertainty but we'd like to turn your attention to Palladium and Platinum – these are also precious metals but Russia is way more important here being the number 1 and 2 exporter respectively. Finally, both Russia and Ukraine are important producers of Wheat. FX – focus on USDRUB FX is fairly obvious – any conflict is detrimental for the Russian ruble even despite high oil prices and significant interest rate increases in Russia. On the other hand, USD attracts liquidity in times of distress so USDRUB could be the choice for investors here. 3 scenarios – invasion, tension and compromise The worst case scenario is the one of invasion – the one already hinted at by the US intelligence. Invasion means sanctions but actually the lack of sanctions is the key to reactions here (as the largest guns – like cutting off Russia from SWIFT – are supposedly off the table). Markets know that if Russia invades, forcing it to withdraw will be costly and that will feed uncertainty and fear. Critically negative for Russian stocks, negative for global stocks, positive for oil and precious metals and USDRUB. The most likely scenario could be the one of prolonged tension – Moscow can pose threats for as long as it achieves certain results (there’s a talk of autonomy or even referendums in Eastern parts of Ukraine). While politically complicated, this scenario can actually be a relief for the markets. For as long as invasion risk declines, this scenario is positive for stocks while being negative for oil, precious metals and USDRUB. Finally a scenario most would prefer – there's a sound compromise and Russian troops are ordered away from the Ukrainian border. This would be extremely positive for stocks (especially Russian banks and the Russian index) while negative for oil, precious metals and USDRUB. Unfortunately, this scenario also seems to be the least likely. XTB Research

Dogecoin price action is under pressure as global markets are nervous about a possible escalation between Ukraine and Russia. DOGE looks set to break the low from the previous week and dip towards $0.1357 Expect once DOGE price reaches that level to see a rally into the weekend that could hold 40% gains. Dogecoin (DOGE) is set for a solid rally but first needs to face the most vital forces with global markets pressing on all assets with a mood of risk-off, as today and tomorrow could be the tipping point in the escalation towards a war between Russia and Ukraine. As tailwinds are just too big a force to face, DOGE will dip further towards solid support at $0.1357. Once bulls enter, expect a big rally that could swing up to 40% towards $0.19. Time for the bulls to stake a step back and look at the bigger picture Dogecoin is under pressure as the overall cryptocurrency space joins global markets rattled by a crucial moment in the Russia-Ukraine development. As Russian army exercises near the Ukrainian border are set to end tomorrow, the crucial moment for a possible invasion to take place before then. This is putting markets on edge with risk-off across the board and EU equities down more than 3%. This risk sentiment is weighing on DOGE price action with the low of last week being tested, and bears using the entry-level from Sunday at $0.1594 where the 55-day Simple Moving Average and the pivotal historical level delivered a firm rejection to the upside. With that, expect this downtrend to continue today and dip towards $0.1357, which already proved its support at the end of January. Once there, expect bulls to jump on the opportunity and lead a rally that could jump as much as 40% towards $0.19 once the geopolitical rhetoric dies down and cools off. DOGE/USD daily chart Should Russia engage in war with Ukraine and invade, expect this to pull the trigger for investors to flee the markets and cause a fire sale across the board. For DOGE this would mean that it could tank another 24% on top of the 7% forecasted for today. That would bring DOGE price action down to around $0.1030, where the monthly S1 support level is situated, the red descending trendline and the $0.1000 psychological level – providing three elements that could catch the falling price action.

TSLA drops nearly 5% on Friday as macro factors in charge. All EV stocks LCID, Chinese names suffer the same fate. Tesla once again is targetting its 200-day moving average. Tesla (TSLA) followed many EV names (all, if we are correct) lower on Friday as macro factors took charge over equity markets. The dominant theme so far in 2022 has been one of rising rates and inflationary pressures. This has led to high growth and tech names underperforming, while energy and financial stocks have been the place to be. That is likely to remain the theme for at least the next quarter if not also Q2. Russia and Ukraine tensions have pushed the oil price above $90, and financial stocks benefit from higher interest rates. Growth stocks, however, do not benefit from higher interest rates as investors look for businesses with cash. With higher interest rates, future cash flows become less valuable. So of the three names mentioned, Tesla, Rivian (RIVN) or Lucid (LCID), we would not want to currently be long any of them. We expect TSLA to perform best of the three due to its market-leading position and revenue, but this sector is out of favour and likely to remain so. Tesla Stock News The latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) confirms what we saw from Chinese EV companies earlier. Deliveries for January were down versus December. This is due to the lunar new year in China. Tesla sold 59,845 vehicles in January, down from 70,847 China-made vehicles in December. The Chinese electric vehicle market remains the largest EV market in the world, helped by government incentives and population demand. Tesla Stock Forecast Tesla remains in the strong downtrend identified earlier this year. $945 was tested multiple times as resistance and failed. This has resulted in the recent pullback. Now $824 remains as the 200-day moving average. Below we have trendline support at $752. The 200-day is the key level. Tesla has not closed below its 200-day moving average since June 2021. It has broken the 200-day on an intraday basis several times since but always failed to close below. Notice how volume has steadily been declining in Tesla this month, despite some hugely volatile days. This is indicative of a lack of conviction in the stock. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

Since the end of last week, the price of gold has risen by more than 3%. With a high of $1879, it was temporarily rose to highs since last June. Biden's warning that Russia could invade Ukraine "at any moment" triggered a broad sell-off in Europe and several emerging markets and tangentially affected the US equity market. Recent events have brought back interest in assets that have benefited from decades of tension: gold has risen as insurance against currency destabilisation, and oil has risen on fears of a surge in demand and a shortage of supply. Geopolitics give a shaky ground behind this growth, so investors should be wary of joining gold's rise. It is impossible to predict whether the next move will escalate or de-escalate. Now, there are far more signs that the peak of tension is behind us, yet gold continues to gain today. Likely, the fundamental demand for gold is now driven by a desire to preserve the purchasing value of capital amid inflation and ongoing price shocks across a range of commodities. Also, tech analysis is now on the side of the bulls. A trend of higher local lows has formed since the end of September, with the last anchor point in late January. In addition, the 50-day moving average is again above the 200-day moving average, giving a bullish "golden cross" signal. This signal coincided with a solid upward momentum on Friday, strengthening the bullish signal. In January, the former retracement resistance line became support, indicating a break in the trend. If gold stays above $1865 - the area of the November peaks- despite the reduction of the geopolitical premium - we can speak of a bullish momentum development. In this case, the nearest target of this impulse will be the area of $1900-1910. In general, we can say that the long period of correction and sluggish dynamics of gold is over, and then its price can move from one local top to another, potentially exceeding $2000 by August.

USDJPY hits double top The US dollar recovers as hot CPI fuels bets of a 50 basis points hike in March. The rally came to a halt at January’s high (116.35). Profit-taking compounded by new selling triggered a liquidation below 115.50. The medium-term trajectory remains upward and the bulls may be eager to buy the dips. 114.90 is the next support and an oversold RSI may attract bargain hunters. Further down, the daily support at 114.20 is a major demand zone in case of a deeper correction. A close above the double top could resume the uptrend. XAGUSD tests resistance Bullion rallies over investors’ flight to safety. Silver continues to climb from the daily support at 22.00. Following a brief pullback, a break above the recent high at 23.70 indicates strong buying interest. A bullish MA cross is a sign of acceleration to the upside. The psychological level of 24.00 is the next hurdle and a breakout would bring the price to January’s peak at 24.70. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a limited fallback; if so the previous low at 22.90 would be the closest support. GER 40 tests critical floor The Dax 40 remains under pressure over Russia-Ukraine tensions. The last rebound’s failure to achieve a new high showed that the bears were still in charge. Trend followers are likely to sell into strength as sentiment remains wary. The index saw bids in the critical demand zone around 14900 which has been tested several times in the last four months. A bearish breakout would trigger a broader sell-off and put a serious dent in the medium-term rally. The bulls will need to reclaim 15500 before they could turn things around.

The first cryptocurrency returned to growth on Tuesday morning, adding 3.3% and rising to 43,500. Technically, BTCUSD held above the 50-day moving average and received support from buyers after another touch of this level. At the same time, however, this average is directed downwards, emphasizing the general downward trend. Cryptocurrencies seem to be once again trying on the role of a safe-haven asset, becoming a little more like gold and a little less like stocks. Although US stock indices were under pressure on Monday, they decided to stop the sharp decline at the end of last week. However, the high-tech Nasdaq ended the day unchanged. European stock indicators showed a noticeable drop under the influence of tensions around Ukraine. On the same background, gold shot up 3% to highs since June last year. It should be understood that in the event of a massive sale of shares, only short-term government bonds will be the protective asset of last resort. Institutions invested $75 million in crypto funds last week, according to CoinShares. Over the past four weeks, net inflows to crypto funds amounted to $209 million. The head of Uber said that the company would definitely start accepting cryptocurrencies in the future. A British crypto investor has announced the creation of a city for crypto investors in the Pacific and expects thousands of supporters from around the world to join soon. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation proposed to limit the investments of unqualified Russian investors in cryptocurrencies to 50 thousand rubles. The agency estimates tax revenues to the budget from the legalization of the cryptocurrency market at 10-15 billion rubles, and the main amount of payments will fall on the miners. Overall, Bitcoin was down 0.2% on Monday, ending the day at around $42,200. Ethereum added 0.1%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a decrease of 1.6% (XRP) to a rise of 2 .2% (Terra). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.5% per day, to $1.97 trillion. The BTC dominance index did not change during the day, remaining at the level of 40.7%. The Fear and Greed Index is up 2 points to 46 and is in a state of fear.

We’re seeing a solid momentum shift today as news hit that some Russian troops have been returned to bases. This ease in tentions is driving risk buying after what has been a sorry few days for buyers as prices plunged on worries Russia was close to invading Ukraine. Friday GER30 returned to LT support a level that held for buyers since May 2021. Above that, we are also watching a shorter-term level of support seen at 15,030. On top of the levels, we can also see a double bottom and the Williams %R has crossed the mid-point range. While these technical indicators look great the meat in this sandwich is the continued ease in tentions, this fact in our opinion is key to seeing this current rally turn into something more. If we do see a continuation of buying as the European situation improves we would look for the GER30 to continue tracking higher and we would look at 15,601 as possible resistance if reached which lines up with the longer-term 86ema. GER30 D1 Chart  The post CFD Update: GER30 on the recovery trail as tensions ease appeared first on Eightcap.

The Russian market is trying to grow this morning. The RTS index has already added 5.5%, while the ruble has taken away 1.7% from the dollar and 1.3% from the euro. The growth impulse was formed yesterday when Foreign Minister Lavrov called for a search for diplomatic ways out of the situation. Later, comments by Zelensky, who in an address to the nation insisted on a diplomatic solution, and a speech by Shoigu, who ordered part of the troops to return to locations of permanent de-escalation, added positives. So far, these are only signals of readiness to discuss and look for ways to resolve it, but the incident is far from over: there are too many “buts” at all levels. If we consider the movement of currencies and stocks from the position that the market takes everything into account, we cannot fail to note positive signals. The EURRUB pair returned to the position from which it rushed upwards on Friday. Fixation below 85 will send a signal of market confidence in a trend reversal. In this case, a fast road to area 84 will be open for the pair. If politicians really plan to move forward on issues that have hung over the ruble like a sword of Damocles for the last 8 years, it will be possible to talk about the potential for the euro to roll back to the level of 80 rubles before the end of the first quarter. For the dollar, the significant point is the mark of 73.50. Fixing below this level will mark the renewal of the lows of the exchange rate for the entire last stage of tension and will also return the Russian currency to the long-term growth trend. In this case, a move to the 70 area over the next six weeks could be a viable prospect. However, even these relatively short-term forecasts look too shaky since the situation can turn 180 degrees at any second.

There is a certain relief in the Ukraine-Russia crisis as the two sides seem willing to continue their diplomatic efforts to avoid a military action. The latter could help reversing a part of yesterday’s aggressive selloff in the European markets, and the FTSE 100 could outperform its peers on the back of firm energy and oil prices. Base case: no war Ukrainian president criticized news giving a date for a potential Russian invasion and said that it could eventually drop its dream to become part of NATO, as a powerful sign of its commitment to de-escalate the tensions at its Russian border. US producer prices: The S&P500 slid 0.38% and closed just near the 4400 mark, the Dow dropped near 0.50%, as Nasdaq closed Monday’s session flat. Today, the inflation talk continues with the US producer prices due later in the session. Analysts expect a certain easing in the PPI index to 9.1% from last month’s surprise to 9.7%. Given the rise in oil and commodity prices, there is a higher chance of seeing a positive than a negative surprise. Any positive surprise could send the PPI index above the 10% psychological mark and keep the bears in charge of the market, regardless of a more hopeful mood due to the diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 Market update 2:48 FTSE led higher by energy, mining stocks 4:54 S&P500, Nasdaq futures rebound, but PPI data is a risk 7:23 Super Bowl advertisements pointed at cryptocurrencies! 8:21 EURUSD: opportunity for ECB hawks? Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

Events in recent weeks have brought back interest in assets that have benefited from tensions in previous decades, with gold rising as insurance against currency destabilisation and oil rising on fears of surging demand and shortages of supply if sanctions constrain supplies from Russia. Interestingly, the West is trying to balance sanctions restrictions on oil as more encouraging comments come out of the talks with Iran. In our view, oil is very expensive, climbing to current heights faster than the economy can afford it. This rise is caused by geopolitical tensions around Russia, which acts as the world's largest energy exporter by a wide margin. Fears about the stability of future supply have so far outweighed any negatives, but it is still prudent to zero in on geopolitical influences over the medium to long term. And with that in mind, the oil price looks unsustainably high, vulnerable to a corrective pullback once the dust of military hardware settles. About 12 years ago, we saw a similar picture when oil prices recovered quickly. And then, the result was another round of global economic weakness, which also knocked down demand for commodities and forced regulators to postpone policy normalisation steps. Will it be like that now? Quite possibly, and then in the second half of the year, oil could turn sharply to correction and cause another shock for the economy. In recent weeks, significant factors are potentially capping price rises with increased drilling activity. Also, Russia will ramp up production as most of the wells are in areas with a harsh climate. Looking locally, we can see how quickly any declines in oil over the last three months are being bought out. In such an environment, oil could soon find itself in short squeeze territory, with short positions being forced to close due to rising prices. This mirrors what we saw in April 2020. It is difficult to predict the peak price level in such an environment. It would be an ideal market picture if the short squeeze occurred at the end of April on another major expiry, paying homage to events two years earlier. And ideally, if we saw a price return to the $112 area where the bear market in oil started in July 2014. But this is an idealised picture. The reality is likely to be less mathematically accurate, as so much is now tied to the actions and comments of policymakers.

Since December, sandbox has been trying to break the downtrend. As bulls attempt to break through, expect some profits to be booked as some targets lie nearby. Once above $4.72, expect $5.00 and $6.00 to be the following targets in the relief rally. Sandbox (SAND) price action is surfing on a wave of relief this morning as tensions between Russia, and the West start to ease on positive news. With that, investors have been falling over each other to get back into cryptocurrencies, and Sandbox price is set to break the longer-term red descending trendline, and downtrend since December last year. Some low-hanging fruit will be targeted in the breakthrough and could provide enough incentive for bulls to book partial profits and go for the ultimate goal of $6.00, holding 47% of gains. Sandbox bulls are in for 47% gains in the relief rally Sandbox price action is again hammering on the red descending trend line that originates from December last year and has been dictating the downtrend ever since. The renewed push comes from tailwinds that emerged overnight on some positive news around de-escalation in the situation between Russia and Ukraine. As the scene is set for a solid relief rally, expect to see some excellent (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/sandbox-tests-support-at-425-before-sand-test-prior-all-time-highs-202202112001) returns, beginning with some nice profits nearby as a good start. SAND bulls will have their eyes on $4.72 with the 55-day Simple Moving Average and an overall (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-dogecoin-sandbox-and-cardano-european-wrap-10-february-video-202202101133) pivotal level falling in line around the same area. Although this level is not far from the red descending trendline, it will still return around 16% of gains intraday. Bulls will have a good incentive to book profits midway but stay in the trade with more considerable profits gained when the price rises towards $5.00 and $6.00 – the next targets in this week’s relief rally. The trade has an excellent risk-return ratio and is the most viable (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/sandbox-price-bound-for-another-30-gains-as-sand-finds-support-202202101005) as we advance. SAND/USD daily chart Should German chancellor Scholz come out with some negative comments and ramp up the rhetoric of full-scale escalation of the tensions, expect (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/shiba-inu-to-enter-the-metaverse-and-challenge-axie-infinity-sandbox-and-decentraland-202202091718) a knee jerk reaction with a firm rejection or false break of the red descending trend line, trapping bulls and pushing them out of their positions as SAND price action collapses back towards $3.50. From there, another leg lower could follow towards $3.00, with the 200-day SMA coming in at around $2.85 and playing its part as a supportive element in the belief that a recovery is still possible. If the 200-day SMA is no match for the downward pressure, expect a break and further push towards $2.50 or $2.00.

WTI has pulled back sharply on Tuesday from Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00 and is back in the $91.00s. Fears of an imminent Russian invasion into Ukraine have eased as Russia withdraws some troops, weighing on oil prices. Oil prices have pulled back sharply from Monday’s multi-year highs, with front-month WTI futures now trading back to the south of the $92.00 level, down about $3.0 per day and more than $4.0 below Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00. Press reports about a withdrawal of troops on the Ukrainian border to their bases has spurred a rebound in risk appetite and reduction in demand for safe havens on Tuesday. Such flows could have further legs in wake of remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin who just said that a decision on partial troop withdrawal had been taken. For oil, tentative signs of de-escalation have triggered profit-taking as geopolitical risk premia is reduced somewhat, though Western nations and NATO remain highly concerned that Russia maintains the option for a near-term attack. One theme to watch is that Russian President Vladimir Putin might imminently recognise the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LPR and DPR), both breakaway regions of Ukraine located in the East. Western officials have criticised Russia’s State Duma for voting in favour of the recognition, which would break the Minsk Agreement designed to implement a ceasefire in the Ukraine civil war. Geopolitical strategists fear that Russia might create a false pretext for military action against Ukraine by rekindling violence in the East, with a recognition of LPR and DPR independence a potential step in this direction. For now, WTI traders will remain on tenterhooks and trading conditions will remain choppy/headline-driven. Near-term WTI bears will likely eye an imminent test of an uptrend that has been supporting the price action for the whole of 2022 thus far in the $90.00s. A break below this could see oil prices swiftly move back under $90.00 and hit support in the form of last week’s lows in the mid-$88.00s. Aside from Eastern European geopolitics, oil traders will also be keeping an eye on upcoming private weekly US oil inventory data at 2130GMT, as well as indirect US/Iran nuclear negotiations, which continue to rumble on in the background.

  Gold continues to benefit from the market turmoil and has apparently forgotten about medium-term problems. Meanwhile, the rising USD and a hawkish Fed await confrontation. With financial markets whipsawing after every Russia-Ukraine headline, volatility has risen materially in recent days. With whispers of a Russian invasion on Feb. 16 (which I doubt will be realized), the game of hot potato has uplifted the precious metals market. However, as I noted on Feb. 14, while the developments are short-term bullish, the PMs’ medium-term fundamentals continue to decelerate. For example, while the general stock market remains concerned about a Russian invasion, U.S. Treasury yields rallied on Feb. 14. With risk-off sentiment often born in the bond market, the safety trade benefiting the PMs didn’t materialize in U.S. Treasuries. As a result, bond traders aren’t demonstrating the same level of fear. Please see below: Source: Investing.com Furthermore, while the potential conflict garners all of the attention, the fundamental issues that upended the PMs in 2021 remain unresolved. For example, with inflation surging, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Feb. 14 that “the last four [Consumer Price Index] reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the U.S. economy.” “The inflation that we’re seeing is very bad for low- and moderate-income households,” he said. “People are unhappy, consumer confidence is declining. This is not a good situation. We have to reassure people that we’re going to defend our inflation target and we’re going to get back to 2%.” As a result, Bullard wants a 50 basis point rate hike in March, and four rate hikes by July. Please see below: Source: CNBC Likewise, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is much less hawkish than Bullard, she also supports a rate hike in March. Source: CNBC As a result, while the PMs can hide behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the short term, their medium-term fundamental outlooks are profoundly bearish. As mentioned, Bullard highlighted inflation’s impact on consumer confidence, and for a good reason. With the University of Michigan releasing its Consumer Sentiment Index on Feb. 11, the report revealed that Americans’ optimism sank to “its worst level in a decade, falling a stunning 8.2% from last month and 19.7% from last February.” Chief Economist, Richard Curtin said: “The recent declines have been driven by weakening personal financial prospects, largely due to rising inflation, less confidence in the government's economic policies, and the least favorable long term economic outlook in a decade.” “The impact of higher inflation on personal finances was spontaneously cited by one-third of all consumers, with nearly half of all consumers expecting declines in their inflation adjusted incomes during the year ahead.” Please see below: To that point, I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that U.S. President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects often move inversely to inflation. With the dynamic still on full display, immediate action is needed to maintain his political survival. Please see below: To explain, the light blue line above tracks the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in inflation, while the dark blue line above tracks Biden’s approval rating. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the U.S. President remains in a highly perilous position. Moreover, with U.S. midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the Democrats can’t wait nine to 12 months for inflation to calm down. As a result, there is a lot at stake politically in the coming months. As further evidence, as inflation reduces real incomes and depresses consumer confidence, the Misery Index also hovers near crisis levels. Please see below: To explain, the blue line above tracks the Misery Index. For context, the index is calculated by subtracting the unemployment rate from the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI. In a nutshell, when inflation outperforms the unemployment rate (the blue line rises), it creates a stagflationary environment in America. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the Misery Index is approaching a level that coincided with the global financial crisis (GFC). As a result, reversing the trend is essential to avoid a U.S. recession. As such, with inflation still problematic and the writing largely on the wall, the market-implied probability of seven rate hikes by the Fed in 2022 is nearly 93% (as of Feb. 10). Please see below: Ironically, while consumers and the bond market fret over inflation, U.S. economic growth remains resilient. While I’ve been warning for months that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, continued strength should turn hawkish expectations into hawkish realities. To that point, the chart above shows that futures traders expect the U.S. Federal Funds Rate to hit 1.75% in 2022 (versus 0.08% now). However, Michael Darda, Chief Economist at MKM Partners, expects the Fed’s overnight lending rate to hit 3.5% before it’s all said and done. “We have this booming economy with high inflation and a rapid recovery in the labor market – much different relative to the last cycle,” he said. “The Fed is behind the curve this time. They are going to have to do more.”  Singing a similar tune, John Thorndike, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, told clients that “inflation is now here, [but] the narrative is that inflation goes away and markets tend to struggle with change. It is more likely than not that real yields and policy rates need to move above inflation during this cycle.” The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine drama distracts the PMs from the fundamental realities that confront them over the medium term, their outlooks remain profoundly bearish. Moreover, while I’ve noted on numerous occasions that the algorithms will enhance momentum in either direction, their influence wanes materially as time passes. As such, while headline risk is material in the short-term, history shows that technicals and fundamentals reign supreme over longer time horizons. Thus, while the recent flare-up is an unfortunate event that hurts our short position, the medium-term developments that led to our bearish outlook continue to strengthen. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 14, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the primary driver moving the financial markets. However, while the PMs will ride the wave as far as it takes them, they ignored that the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields also rallied. Moreover, with Fed officials ramping up the hawkish rhetoric, the PMs' fundamental outlook is more bearish now than it was in 2021 (if we exclude the Russia-Ukraine implications). As a result, while the timeline may have been delayed, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight. For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Pause but more likely a rebound, is what comes next for S&P 500. Closing above the 200-day moving average is possible, but more is needed for a trend reversal in this correction. Credit Markets Credit markets moderated their pace of decline, and there‘s no risk-on posture apparent yet. We may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold are benefiting from the tensions, but they‘ll just as easily give up some of these gains next. What‘s important though, is the continued trend of making higher highs and higher lows. Crude Oil Crude oil looks also likely to lose some of the prior safe haven bid, but similarly to precious metals, the trend is higher, and corrections are more or less eagerly bought. Only should the Fed‘s actions harm the real economy, would oil prices meaningfully decline. Copper Copper is rebounding, but still remains trading in a not too hot fashion – the red metal is still trailing behind other commodities significantly. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos deciding to go higher, is a positive sign for stocks as well – the volume looks to be noticeable enough at the close later today to lend the upswing credibility. Summary S&P 500 bulls have the opportunity today, but the market remains as headline sensitive as everything else. Treasuries stabilizing or even moving higher while funds flow out of the dollar, that would be a bullish confirmation – and the same goes for precious metals not getting hammered, but finding a decent floor. The point is that war jitters calming down when Russia doesn‘t take the bait, makes assets to continue with their prior trends and focus, which is Fed and tightening. The bets on 50bp rate hike in Mar went down recently, and when they start rising again, it would make sense to deploy more capital – including into oil above $90, give or take a buck. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Cryptocurrencies rose on Tuesday on the back of strengthening stock indices and falling protective assets like gold, the yen, and treasuries. Bitcoin started its rise before the news about Russia and Ukraine hit the wires and sparked risk-on sentiments. Technical factors may have influenced the first cryptocurrency's strengthening, with BTC pushing back from its 50-day moving average, which has been acting as a support level for the past week. Russia has proposed allowing cryptocurrency mining in specific regions and imposing taxes on the conversion of crypto assets into fiat and is making progress in testing the digital rouble with the first interbank transfers. Bitcoin rose on Tuesday to its highest level in the past week (+4.4%), ending the day around $44,100, where it is trading on Wednesday morning. Ethereum jumped 7.3% on Tuesday, settling at $3100, while other leading altcoins from the top 10 also added: from 1.7% (XRP) to 12% (Avalanche). Overnight, crypto market capitalisation rose 2% to $1.98 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap estimates. Since early January, the market has not been consistently above the 2 trillion mark, and consolidation above could be an essential signal for bulls to move from observation to active buying. Since the end of January, there has been a notable uptrend support line that can be drawn through the local lows, which sets up optimism in the short term. The two largest cryptocurrencies, BTC and ETH, are attempting to consolidate above their 50-day averages, which previously signalled the end of a bearish phase. This was primarily made possible by optimism on Wall Street, where investors continue to buy out drawdowns. Altcoins showed outperformance, which led to a 0.3 percentage point decline in the Bitcoin Dominance Index to 40.4%. The Fear & Greed Index climbed from 46 to 51, moving into the Neutral from the Fear territory.

The Turkish lira has stabilised after the wild ride of December. Since the start of the year, the fluctuation of the lira formed a converging range with a centre of gravity at 13.50 in USDTRY and 15.40 in EURTRY. However, this lull is hardly a victory for the unorthodox monetary policy ideas being pursued by Turkey. Instead, market participants have turned their attention to developments in Russia and Ukraine, which has made Turkey, if not a haven, comparatively less dangerous for investors. Nevertheless, we see this lull as temporary, expecting the rate to move out of consolidation upwards, as Turkey's fight against inflation is weaker than necessary. Excessive monetary policy softness is further highlighted by monetary tightening worldwide, including in Europe, where central banks are moving to raise rates or roll back stimulus. The latest inflation estimates for January show consumer prices adding 50% and manufacturing prices almost doubling from the same month a year earlier. PPI is being pushed up by 70% devaluation of the national currency, plus a general rise in producer prices close to 10% in countries from China to the USA. Consumer prices have not yet fully absorbed the effects of the fall devaluation of the lira and promise to gain momentum in the coming months, continuing to undermine confidence in the national currency. An assessment of how inadequately soft Turkey's monetary policy is can be made by comparing the differential of inflation and the key rate. In Turkey, it is 35%, in Russia minus 1%, in Ukraine around 0% and in the UK 5%. Even in the US, where it is believed that the Fed has overlooked inflation and will now have to catch up with it through 7 0.25 point hikes this year, this differential is 7.25%, almost five times less than in Turkey. From all of this, there is a conclusion that the Turkish lira is heading upwards out of the consolidation range, i.e. a new round of currency decline is to be expected. However, this wave will likely not be as disastrous as it was in the final quarter of last year.

February 16, 2022  $USD, BOJ, Canada, China, Currency Movement, EMU, FOMC, Trade, UK Overview: Hope that the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe are de-escalating is underpinning risk appetites.  The large bourses in the Asia Pacific region but China were all up more than 1% and Europe's Stoxx 600 gapped higher, but has come back to close the gap, with communications and financial sectors the largest drags.  US futures have softened over the past couple of hours.  The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.04%, while European yields are a little softer.  In the foreign exchange market, the risk-on means the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc are underperforming, while the Canadian and Australian dollars are leading the advance.  Most emerging market currencies are firmer, and the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is edging higher for the third consecutive session.  Gold and oil are stabilizing after yesterday's downside reversals.  After dipping below $1845 yesterday, the yellow metal is approaching $1860.  March WTI is recovering from yesterday's $90.65 low to resurface above $93.00.  API estimated that US crude inventories fell by 1.1 mln barrels and the drawdown at Cushing was more than twice as much.   US natural gas prices are higher for a third session and around 13% for the week.  Europe's benchmark has steadied after collapsing 16% yesterday.  Iron ore bounced almost 3.5% to snap an 11% slide over the past three sessions, while copper is edging higher.   Asia Pacific While many countries are combatting price pressures, China is moving in the opposite direction.  Falling food prices helped the January CPI slow to 0.9% year-over-year from 1.5%.  Pork prices fell by more than 40% year-over-year and fresh vegetable prices dropped 4.1%.   Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI was unchanged at 1.2% year-over-year.  Falling coal, steel, and other industrial goods prices say the PPI eased from 10.3% at the end of last year to 9.1% in January.  Both the price gauges were lower than expected and underscore the scope for further official support.  Many expect rate cuts and a reduction in required reserves to be delivered with Q2 a favorite timeframe.   The Bank of Japan conducted its normally scheduled bond buying operation today. The offer-to-cover rose to over 5x, the highest since last October, reflecting the greater willingness to sell the bonds to the BOJ.  There may have been some extra interest to sell 20-year bonds ahead of tomorrow's auction.  BOJ Governor Kuroda was clear.  The offer to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year bonds to defend the yield-curve-control cap of 0.25% can be made again.  The BOJ has no intention to abandon it or widen the band for the 10-year yield.  The IMF has previously suggested targeting a short-term rate, but Kuroda showed no interest.  While a strong reception at tomorrow's auction may buy some time, the pressures emanating from the rise in global rates suggests a running battle with the BOJ will continue.   The US dollar has been confined to about a 20-pip range above JPY115.60.  It is too narrow of a range to persist.  The upside looks blocked around JPY116.00 and is reinforced by the expiration of a nearly $1 bln option there today.  On the downside, the JPY115.30-JPY115.40 may limit a pullback.  The Australian dollar tested the $0.7185 area, the high before the weekend and US warning that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen any day.   This area corresponds to the (61.8%) retracement objective of the slide from last week's high set near $0.7250.  It appears to have stalled there and a test of nearby support in the $0.7140-$0.7150 area appears likely ahead of the jobs report first things tomorrow in Australia. The US dollar fell by a little more than 0.25% against the Chinese yuan yesterday, the most in two months, and slipped a little further today.  The market may have been encouraged by the PBOC's dollar reference rate, which for the second consecutive session was slightly below market expectations (of the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey).  Today's reference rate was set at CNY6.3463 vs. expectations for CNY6.3465.  Europe Understandably, the focus is on geopolitics and monetary policy, but the eurozone trade balance is at an important junction.  Yesterday, the EMU reported its largest monthly trade deficit (9.7 bln euros) in 19-years, mostly due to the surge in the cost of energy.  For last year as a whole, it recorded an average monthly surplus of about 10.2 bln euros, down from 18.7 bln in 2020 and 16.5 bln average in 2019. Last year's average was the smallest since 2012.   After the four largest EMU members report larger than expected declines in December industrial output, the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey for a 0.3% increase seemed wide of the mark.  Consider that German output fell by 0.3% (median forecast 0.5%), French output fell by 0.2% (median forecast 0.5%), and Italy's fall by 1.0%, which was only slightly more than expected. Spain was the biggest disappointment. It collapsed by 2.6% while the median forecasted a 0.5% decline.  Nevertheless, the Eurostat reported a 1.2% jump in December industrial output and appears to use different national figures.   UK January inflation gauges were slightly firmer than expected.  CPIH, which includes owner equivalent housing costs edged up to 4.9% from a year ago.  It was at 4.8% in December.  The month-over-month decline in CPI of 0.1% was slightly less than expected. The core measure rose 4.4% after a 4.2% pace at the end of last year.  Output producer prices accelerated to 9.9% from 9.3%, dashing forecasts of a decline (to 9.1%).  Input prices rose 13.6% from a year ago. This has also been a quickening if not for the upward revision of the December series to 13.8% from 13.5%.  Today's inflation report will not change many minds about the outlook for next month's meeting. The swaps market continues to show a better than even chance of a 50 bp rate hike on March 17.   The euro extended its recovery to $1.1395 in late Asian turnover today.  Recall that the geopolitics and widening rate differential had pushed it to about $1.1280 at the start of the week.  The upside looks blocked at $1.1400 by a one-billion-euro option that expires today and another a little larger at $1.1425.  Initial support is seen in the $1.1340-$1.1350 area.  Below there, support may be near $1.1320.  Sterling remains mired in a $1.35-$1.36 range.  It briefly slipped to below $1.3490 on an intrasession basis yesterday but quickly rebounded.  It has not settled outside this range this month.   America After the recent price data, the US economic news turns to the real sector today with consumption and production news.  Helped by a jump in prices and auto sales, retail sales are expected to have recouped December's 1.9% drop.  Auto and gasoline likely accounted for around half the projected increase.  The core measure, which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services are expected to have risen by 1.4%, the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey.  After dropping 3.1% in December, it may be a little disappointing. Next week, the more comprehensive consumption expenditures will be reported.  Like the headline retail sales, the PCE is expected to fully recover the 0.6% decline at the end of last year.  Industrial output is expected to have risen by 0.5% last month.  It fell by 0.1% in December.  However, parts of manufacturing remain disrupted and factory output is forecast to have risen by 0.2% after falling by 0.3%.  Perhaps, an under-appreciated component in industrial output is the surge in shale output from the Permian Basin.  It hit a new record high for the third consecutive month and was above 5 mln barrels a day for the first time since 2007 when the time series began.  America's seven major shale areas are ramping up output and is expected to reach 8.7 mln barrels a day next month.  That said, there are two medium-term challenges that ought to be monitored.  First, output per well is falling.  It is now back to August 2020 levels.  This means more wells are needed for the same level of output.  Second, the inventory left in the ground as in drilled but not completed wells has been trending lower and is now the lowest since 2014.  Late in the session, the FOMC minutes from last month's meeting will be released. Recall the statement was not as hawkish as Chair Powell comments.  Powell sought maximum flexibility and the market, with the help of some Fed officials (see Bullard) and the jump in CPI, read into that flexibility a sign of more aggressive monetary policy.  On the eve of Powell's press conference, the Fed funds futures had discounted around a 50% chance of a March hike and almost four hikes this year.  Now the Fed funds market is discounting almost a 2/3 probability of a 50 bp hike in March and is divided between six and seven hikes this year.  The swaps market is pricing in two hikes next year and a cut in 2024.   Canada reports January CPI figures.  It appears that after the US reported a stronger than expected increase, some economists tweaked their Canadian forecasts higher.  In January 2021, Canada's CPI rose by 0.6%.  The median forecast (Bloomberg survey) now looks for a 0.6% increase last month.  This will keep the year-over-year rate steady at 4.8%.  The underlying measures may also be broadly stable.  Note that last February through May, Canada's CPI rose by 0.5% each month.  Still, it may not impact expectations for monetary policy.  The swaps market has nearly 175 bp of tightening priced in for this year--seven hikes. The market sees a terminal rate of about 2.5%, which Bank of Canada Governor Macklem says may be higher.   The upper end of the US dollar's range against the Canadian dollar held earlier this week near CAD1.28. The greenback is being pushed lower now and is back near the pre-weekend/pre-US warning low (~CAD1.2670).  The lower end of the range is around CAD1.2650-CAD1.2660.  Last week, there was an intrasession spike to almost CAD1.2635. However, the intrasession momentum indicators are stretched, warning of the risk that the greenback bounces in early North American turnover.  The CAD1.2700-CAD1.2720 may serve as a nearby cap.  The US dollar remains soft against the Mexican peso.  The deputy governor of the central bank made it seem as if the Fed delivers a 50 bp hike by mid-March, it would be matched by Banxico at its meeting on March 24. The greenback has been testing the 200-day moving average, which comes in today near MXN20.34.  Yesterday's bounce off it has been particularly shallow, suggesting that the bids are being absorbed. A break would target this year's low around MXN20.28. Below there, the greenback could fall toward MXN20.10-MXN20.15.     Disclaimer

Binance Coin takes a small step back this morning due to some profit-taking.BNB bulls hold all the cards as the relief rally is not over yet.Expect a pop above $444-$452 with a profit target set at $480 for the moment.Binance Coin (BNB) price action shot back above the red descending trend line yesterday with a massive relief rally that lifted market sentiment. With that, the downtrend looks to be broken, and an uptrend could be on the cards if bulls can take out the $444-$452 resistance barrier with a triple top formation, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the longer-term pivotal level all coincide in this region. Once through there, expect the next stage to be set for a move towards $480 with the 200-day SMA coming in, returning another 10%.Binance Coin set for the second phase in the recovery rallyBinance Coin is undergoing some profit-taking this morning after the solid relief rally from yesterday (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-decentraland-binance-dogecoin-asian-wrap-16-feb-video-202202160214) that has lifted market sentiment and saw some decent inflows into markets. On the way up, bulls hit some resistance from the double top from February 08 and January 21 and, in the process, made it a triple top resistance. This, together with the already known $452 and the 55-day SMA coming in at $445, makes it a substantial (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/binance-coin-must-break-out-above-this-level-before-bnb-can-retest-660-202202152150) barrier that will need to be broken to prove that the relief rally still has plenty of juice to go.Expect thus some profit-taking today, a little bit on the back foot with $419 as support to bounce off back to $445. Some more positive signals coming from the Russia-Ukraine developments could be the needed additional catalyst to push through this difficult barrier. The next target is set at $480, with the 200-day SMA falling in line with that considerable number, resulting in probably the same profit-taking pattern (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-and-shiba-inu-price-climbs-as-binance-smart-chain-whales-accumulate-meme-coins-202202151719) as BNB price action shows today.BNB/USD daily chartOverall, the US keeps claiming that the situation in Central-Europe remains precarious and could see an escalation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-binance-coin-and-decentraland-european-wrap-11-february-202202111055) any time now. Once those headlines hit the wires, expect the whole cryptocurrency space to collapse and for there to be a massive pullback from investors, with BNB price falling back initially to $389. Depending on the severity of the attacks, another push lower towards $340 would be the logical outcome and result in BNB price shedding 22% of its value.

Today we’re looking at the GBPUSD as buyers continue to hold firm and now only face one level of resistance both they can get the new uptrend back on track. Fundamentally a few things remain on the radar. Russian/Ukrainian Situation, we’ve seen recently that fair ups are supporting the USD and any new escalations could drive the USD higher which would hurt the GBPUSD. T-note yields are another ongoing factor but yields have settled for now but new highs could once again hurt risk pairs including the GBPUSD. US inflation and UK inflation. US inflation and rate rises could be starting to be factored in unless we see a new spike. The minutes didn’t do much to drive the USD this week, while a new rise in UK inflation definitely supported the GBP yesterday giving the GBPUSD a nice boost in Wednesday’s session. With that in mind let’s look at some of the technicals we’re watching on the GBPUSD chart. For now, we see price stuck in consolidation with support and resistance currently holding price. Overall we can see two new uptrends in play, on the short and medium times. Price also sits above all three moving averages and the short term MAs are trading above the 86 MA. While support remains firm we will continue to look for buyers to push at a new continuation. The key to this is a break above the two resistance points. This could confirm a new breakout and start suggesting that the medium-term trend could continue. A break below support and a move back to the new Med-trend would be a small warning sign and further evidence would be required before thinking that the trend is going to continue. GBPUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: GBPUSD setting up for a continuation? appeared first on Eightcap.

Tesla bounces strongly on Tuesday as risk assets surge. TSLA stock gains just over 5% on Tuesday. Geopolitical tensions falling help risk appetites return. Tesla (TSLA) shares bounced strongly on Tuesday, eventually closing up over 5% in a strong day for equities. The stock market was buoyed by news of some Russian deployments returning to their bases. Russia then appeared to confirm this as hopes grew for a diplomatic solution. This saw an obvious bounce in equities (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) with the strongest names being those that were previously the weakest. Understandable, but is this gain sustainable? NATO this morning has said it sees no sign of Russian troops pulling back from the Ukraine border. NATO has said it sees Russian troop numbers still growing along the Russian-Ukraine border. This news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) still has legs. Volatility has been high as a result and will likely continue that way. Tesla Stock News The latest quarterly SEC filings have provided much information to pore over. In particular, Tesla, they do note some hedge fund selling. This is not too surprising given the record highs TSLA stock pushed on to before Elon Musk sold a stake. Benzinga reports that the latest filing shows Ray D'Alio's Bridgewater cutting its stake in Tesla. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest was regularly top-slicing her firm's stake in Tesla recently. CNBC also reported yesterday that hedge fund Greenlight Capital had made a bearish bet on Tesla shares. Greenlight, according to the report, has been a long time Tesla bear. Apart from those snippets though, macroeconomic factors are the main driver of the Tesla stock price currently. Electric vehicle stocks have not been a strong sector so far in 2022 as growth, in general, is out of favor with investors. This has led to steep falls in other names such as Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID). Both are at a much earlier stage of development than Tesla (TSLA) and on that basis, we would favor Tesla (TSLA) over them. But we must stress we would ideally avoid the sector entirely until perhaps the second quarter. Once markets have adjusted to the prospect of higher rates, some high-growth stocks may benefit. historical in a Fed (https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed) hiking cycle the main indices do advance but growth sectors struggle. Rivian so far is down 36% year to date, Lucid is down 24% while Tesla is the outperformer, down 12% for 2022. Tesla Stock Forecast We remain in the chop zone between the two key levels of $945 and $886. Breaking $945 should lead to a move toward $1,063. That would still be consistent with the longer-term bearish trend. Nothing goes down or up in a straight line. TSLA is unlikely to be able to fight the current overpowering macroeconomic backdrop of rising rates (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/rates) hitting high growth stocks. But breaking $945 is still significant in the short term and should see some fresh momentum. While $886 is significant, the 200-day moving average at $826 should have our real attention on the downside. Tesla has not closed below this level in over 6 months, so that would be significant and again lead to a fresh influx of momentum. Just this time though, it would be selling momentum. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily Short-term swing traders should note the volume momentum behind moves. Once volume dries up, Tesla tends to fall off intraday. From the 15-minute chart below, we have an opening gap from Tuesday down to $880. This is short-term support, but a break will see the bottom of Monday's range at $840 tested. Tesla (TSLA) 15-minute chart

The Ukrainian crisis is not likely to recede into the background anytime soon. Promising Russian statements about the withdrawal of troops are refuted by the West and Ukraine, near where the exercises are taking place. There was also a series of accusations and denials about the shootout in Donbas in the morning, which triggered impulsive selling of risky assets. The local momentum of the markets' decline was less than what we saw on Friday following Biden's statements about Russia's impending attack on Ukraine. Still, the latest news clearly shows that we should not hope for smooth and quick exhaustion of the conflict and a favourable resolution in the coming days. So far, however, there are more signals that Eastern European politicians still want a diplomatic, not forceful solution, which forms a modest reduction in the pull towards security. The Fed was also on the side of the stock market bulls yesterday. The published minutes of the January meeting were not as hawkish as investors had expected. The FOMC at the end of last month did not consider a 50-point rate hike in March and did not talk about the need for seven hikes this year. Then we had the labour market report, which showed strong growth in employment and wages, and even later came frightening figures about inflation accelerating to 40-year highs. Yesterday the retail sales figures were added to it. Americans bought harder than expected in January, and some observers attribute that to a rush of demand due to inflation fears and a spike in auto and apparel prices. The Fed might revise its view to a more hawkish one after bullish reports, but the markets did breathe a sigh of relief, managing to pull the S&P500 and Russell2000 into the green at the end of Wednesday. Meanwhile, the S&P500 and Dow Jones continue to struggle behind the 200-day moving average, with no victory signals for the bulls or the bears in this local battle. Investors and traders should pay close attention to this struggle, as a sharp pullback to one side or the other could set the direction for the days and weeks ahead.

Bitcoin ended Wednesday with symbolic gains, gaining 0.1% to stay around $44,100. Ethereum rose 1.4%, and the other leading altcoins in the top ten also showed mostly upward momentum, from 0.3% (Binance Coin) to 5.5% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.9% over the day, to $2.09 trillion. Altcoins were in high demand, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 40.1%. The Fear and Greed Index rose another 1 point to 52 (neutral). For the second time this month, Bitcoin's growth is interrupted by attempts to gain a foothold above $45,000. In the event of a pullback, traders should monitor the dynamics near 42,000, where Bitcoin found support at the beginning of the week. Consolidation between 42,000 and 45,000 can be regarded as a positive signal, as it will consolidate confidence that the downtrend of recent months will not resume after a pause. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched an audit of the US representative office of the Binance crypto exchange. The Canadian authorities intend to track transactions in cryptocurrencies and block bank accounts in order to cut off funding for the Freedom Convoy truckers' protest movement. Twitter has added support for Ethereum addresses to the money transfer service within its application. The Bank of Russia plans to start the second stage of testing the cryptoruble in autumn. On Thursday morning, the markets and bitcoin experienced a downward momentum due to news of shelling in Ukraine. Cryptocurrencies reacted impulsively as a risk asset, but last week's example shows that they can also act as safe havens, as some investors may try to save capital using Bitcoin, Ethereum and a number of other large altcoins.

Good mood didn’t last long as the US didn’t let the tensions de-escalate insisting that Russia is certainly not pulling back its troops but is rather increasing its presence at the Ukrainian border. The US warning hit the investor appetite at yesterday’s session and reversed the earlier week gains in stock indices. As a result, the safe have flows boosted gold, again, as crude oil remained steady around the $92 per barrel. US equities were soft but the S&P500 erased a part of losses at a late-session rally after the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes, the pricing on the fed funds front flipped to give more chance for a 25bp hike in March, instead of a 50-bp hike. In the FX markets, the US dollar remains strong, while the pound-dollar is eking out gains above the 1.35 mark as the high inflation in the UK keeps the Bank of England (BoE) hawks in charge of the market. Bitcoin is pointed as a risk to the global financial stability, as Fidelity launches Europe's cheapest Bitcoin ETP. In the individual stocks, Nvidia’s strong results didn’t boost the share price in the afterhours trading, Virgin Galactic couldn’t extend Tuesday’s days on worries that they may have some execution problems sending people to the moon and Roblox tanked 26% on softer results. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Ukraine update 1:22 Gold up, but gains vulnerable 1:54 US equities fine with the hawkish Fed minutes 3:38 Sterling gains on soaring inflation expectations 4:54 Cryptocurrencies: a risk to financial stability? 6:04 Why strong results don't boost appetite in Nvidia? 7:35 Why the space travel doesn't seduce investors? 8:34 And why Roblox is not in a good place to reverse losses? Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

February 17, 2022  $USD, Australia, Canada, Currency Movement, Japan, Norway, Oil, Russia Overview: US intelligence claims that Russia is still mobilizing for an attack on Ukraine is sapping risk appetites and lifting gold to its highest level since last June around $1885-$1890.  Asia Pacific equities advanced, except in Japan.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is nursing a small loss, while US futures are off around 0.4%-0.6%.  The 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering slightly above 2.0%.  European benchmark yields are 2-4 bp lower.   The Scandis and euro are bearing the brunt of the risk-off move among the major currencies, while the Antipodeans, yen, Swiss franc, and sterling have pushed higher.  Emerging market currencies are mostly lower, led by Russia and central European currencies, but the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency is edging higher for the fourth consecutive session, recovering from earlier weakness.  Hungary left its one-week repo rate steady at 4.3% and Turkey is expected to also stand pat (14%).   April WTI is retracing most of yesterday's 1.8% gain and is straddling $90 a barrel.  US natural gas is falling for the first time this week.  Europe's benchmark is up about 10% since Tuesday's 16% slide.  Iron ore slumped 7% after it rose 3.2% yesterday.  Copper is slipping for the first session in four.  Asia Pacific Japan reported weaker than expected exports and stronger than expected imports drove the trade deficit to JPY2.19 trillion. It was a third larger than expected.  Seasonally, Japan's January trade balance always (20-years-plus) deteriorated from December.  Yet, there is something more going on.  Rising energy and commodity prices more generally are deteriorating Japan's terms of trade.  It shares that with the eurozone that reported its largest trade deficit in 13 years earlier this week. EMU's trade balance also typically deteriorates in January from December, but surge in energy prices appears to have aggravated the seasonal pattern.  Meanwhile, nearly every day that passes now means that a significant disruption of Russia's gas supplies could have a diminishing impact on Europe as spring approaches.  Australia's jobs market held up better than expected last month.  It created almost 18k jobs.  The market expected a flat report.  The positions created were all part-time posts, while full-time positions fell by 17k after increasing 41k in December.  Australia grew an average of almost 3 full-time jobs last year after losing a little more than 8k a month in 2020.  While the unemployment rate was steady at 4.2%, the participation rate ticked up to 66.2% from 66.1%.  The virus (sick-leave) and extended time-off (vacations) saw the hours worked fall 8.8% month-over-month.  Australia's employment report is unlikely to impact expectations.  The market continues to price in the first hike around mid-year.  Rather than ratify market expectations, the central bank continues to pushback.  The US dollar slipped through JPY115.00 for the first time since February 7.  The low was recorded in early European turnover.  The intraday momentum indicators are stretched, but a break of the JPY114.90 could see JPY114.60.  There is an option for nearly $1.1 bln struck there that expires today.  The JPY115.20 area may offer the immediate cap.  The Australian dollar was initially sold from around $0.7210 down to $0.7150 before finding good bids.  It recovered back to session highs before stalling.  It is straddling the $0.7200 area in late morning turnover in Europe, leaving it little changed on the day.   The greenback briefly and shallowly slipped through CNY6.33 and rebounded to almost CNY6.34.  For the third session in a row, the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate a little softer than expected (CNY6.3321 vs. CNY6.3325, median projection in Bloomberg's forecast).   Europe The US claims that rather than withdraw troops as previously reported, Russia has mobilized another 7k troops.  Moscow denies it.  Russia is involved in military exercises.  The operations in the Crimea appeared to have ended, but the ones with Belarus are expected to last through the weekend. It seems like Russian troop movement next week may be more telling.  The G7 foreign ministers are meeting on Saturday.   NATO chief Stoltenberg's term ends in October.  He will serve out his term before heading home to lead the central bank.  Norges Bank Olsen's term ends next month.  Deputy Governor Ida Bache who vied for the top job will act as interim head until Stoltenberg is ready.  The Norges Bank Governor also leads the $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund.  Last month, the central bank signaled its intention to hike rates in March.  The swaps market has 100 bp of tightening priced in over the next 12 months.   The euro was sold slightly through $1.1325 in Asia after holding below $1.14 yesterday.  The $1.1380-$1.1400 area looks to still cap upticks. The 1.7 bln euro in options struck in the $1.1435-$1.1450 area look set to roll-off today.  If uncertainty over Russia's intentions is a negative for the euro, the narrowing of the US two-year premium over Germany for the third consecutive session is a supportive development.  Sterling is bid.  It is trading above $1.36, which it has not settled above in nearly a month. The intrasession high this month was set near $1.3645.   The UK reports January retail sales tomorrow and a bounce is expected after January's large fall.  The euro has fallen to back to around GBP0.8350 near where it bottomed on Monday.  America How prices respond to fundamental news is often revealing.  Yesterday, the US reports stronger than expected January retail sales and industrial output figures.  But the two-year yield fell five basis points and the implied yield of December Fed funds futures contract shed 4.5 bp.  The two-year yield is another 3.5 bp lower today and is about 1.5 bp lower on the week (slightly above 1.48%).  With today's five basis point slippage, the December Fed funds futures implies an average effective yield of 1.53% at the end of the year, which is about 6.5 bp lower than where it finished last week after the US warned of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine in days.  Europe, Russia, and Iran are seemingly more optimistic than the US a deal with Iran may be near. With OPEC+ struggling to fulfill their commitments to boost output by 400k barrels a day and low inventories among many of the large consuming countries, new supply from Iran would help ease address the global shortage that has lifted price to almost $100 a barrel.  Saudi Arabia is believed to have about 2 mln barrels a day in spare capacity is reluctant to jeopardize the six-year agreement under the OPEC+ framework. The US EIA reported an unexpected build of US oil inventories yesterday, but Cushing saw an almost 2 milt barrel draw.  The US reports January housing starts and permits.  Both are expected to have softened but remain at historically elevated levels.  Although adverse weather may have impacted starts, the concern is rising rates and commodity prices (e.g., March lumber has risen by around 25% this month alone) will weaken demand.  The US also sees the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing survey and weekly initial jobless claims.   Canada's January CPI surprised on the upside yesterday.  The 5.1% year-over-year headline pace was the highest since 1991, while the monthly increase of 0.9% was the largest since January 2017.  Gasoline prices rose 3.2%, meat jumped a little more than 10%, and homeowner equivalent expenses jumped 13.5%.  The Bank of Canada is set to hike rates on March 2.  The market has about a 1-in-3 chance of a 50 bp move discounted.  For about a week, the US offered a premium over Canada for two-year money, but it slipped back into a discount yesterday and is a little larger today.  Oil is firmer, but the general risk-off mood, given the uncertainties in Eastern Europe, weighs on the Loonie.  Meanwhile, the Canadian police have sent written warnings to hundreds who decamped in Ottawa.  It appears to be a prelude to arrests. The US dollar remains confined to a CAD1.2650-CAD1.2660 to CAD1.2800 trading range.  It approached the lower end of the range yesterday and is checking out the air above CAD1.27 near midday in Europe.  The greenback finally took out the 200-day moving average against the Mexican peso.  It is trading at its lowest level since last October (~MXN20.25-MXN20.26).  There is little chart support ahead of MXN20.12.  Still, the intrasession momentum indicators are stretched, warning against chasing it in early North American activity.    A bounce can carry the dollar back to the MXN20.30-MXN20.33 area.     Disclaimer

Well, so far, we’ve seen another choppy week with rallies and sell-offs. The week started on a positive note as buyers regained control after a weak end to the previous week. Buying jumped on Tuesday and peaked on Wednesday. At this point, you would have been justified in thinking, could we be set to start testing last week’s highs? Out of the top 10, AVAX and BNB did manage to test or break last week’s highs, but most failed to reach those levels before momentum swung hard back to the seller camp on Thursday. For now, Crypto looks to be locked into the risk response to the current crisis seen in Eastern Europe between Ukraine and Russia. As tensions increased, sellers hammered into crypto coins, knocking most of the week’s gains. Bitcoin and Ethereum lost just over 8% yesterday, and AVAX traded as much as 9% lower before closing off lows. At this stage, the crypto top 10 and 25 indexes sit just in the red after giving back just over 8% in gains. For us, the picture looks quite clear moving forward. Tensions in Europe, but we think markets should recover. If we see tensions continue or sadly if the situation escalates into all-out conflict, we would think that coins could see heavy seller pressure. Our focus is on Ethereum weekly chart this week as we look at this week’s fade, lining up with the current LH under bearish MAs. For now, supply looks firm from 3080 and if we see a lower close this week, that set up a new move back to the 2430 area that also lines up with previous support at the 86MA? We do think that for this to happen, there might need to be further fundamental influence to maintain the selling. The daily shows support at 2860, so if geopolitical tensions remain the same or ease, a hold at that area could set up a new move to retest this week’s highs and start putting pressure on the weekly bearish picture. The post Your Crypto Focus: 19th – 25th February appeared first on Eightcap.

AUDUSD attempts to break out The Australian dollar finds support from a low jobless rate in January. The pair has previously hit resistance in the supply zone around 0.7250. This is a daily resistance from the sell-off in late January. Then a recovery above 0.7180 suggests solid buying pressure before a bearish mood could take hold again. A break above the key hurdle could initiate a bullish reversal above this year’s peak (0.7310). Otherwise, a prolonged consolidation may test the demand area between 0.7100 and 0.7150. NZDUSD tests resistance The New Zealand dollar climbed higher as the RBNZ can lift its cash rates next week. Price action came under pressure on the 30-day moving average (0.6730). However, strong support at 0.6590 builds a case for a potential reversal. A break above 0.6690 is an encouraging sign leaving 0.6730 as the last obstacle before a bullish extension. A broader rally would bring the kiwi back to January’s high at 0.6890. In the meantime, an overbought RSI caused a brief pullback towards 0.6660. SPX 500 consolidates The S&P 500 struggles as the Russia-Ukraine crisis persists. The previous rebound has met stiff selling pressure over the 30-day moving average (4590). A pullback has sent the RSI into the oversold territory, triggering some buyers’ interest in racking up the bargain. The rebound is still valid as long as the index stays above the critical area of 4280. A break above 4480 may extend gains to the double top at 4590 which is an important resistance. 4360 is the immediate support if the sideways action lingers.

Bitcoin price gets caught in a bearish triangle as tensions in Ukraine flare up again. Ethereum price returns to pivotal support, money repatriation goes into the second day. XRP price in pennant ready for a bearish breakout under the current sentiment. Cryptocurrencies are on the back foot as investors are getting worried about the escalating situation between Ukraine and Russia, as more reports come in from shots in the Donbas region near Luhansk. As the situation does not seem to de-escalate, investors are pulling their money out of what was believed to be the start of a solid and longer-term relief rally that is stalling at the moment. With more downside pressure to come, expect all significant cryptocurrencies to fall back to supportive pivotal levels. Bitcoin price falls into a bearish triangle, set to dip back below $40,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price is getting battered on Thursday after a fade on Wednesday that could still be attributed to some short-term profit-taking. The extension of the falls seems to confirm that sentiment is yet again dipping below zero towards risk-off. Investors pulling out their funds preemptively is reflected with the sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index, where the sell-side demand is outpacing the buy-side demand. In this context, Bitcoin price will remain under pressure for the rest of the week and could be set to slip below $40,000 in the coming days as the situation in Ukraine is set to deteriorate again, potentially inflicting further damage to the market mood. BTC price sees bulls unable to hold price action above $44,088 and in the process is forming a descending trend line that, together with the base at $41,756, is forming a bearish triangle. Expect Bitcoin valuation to decline further as the tensions around Luhansk increase by the hour. Once the $41,756 support is broken, the road is open for a nosedive towards $39,780 with the $40,000 psychological level broken yet again to the downside. BTC/USD daily chart A hail mary could be provided by the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $42,340, which already provided support on February 9 and February 15. With that move, a sudden breakthrough in the peace talks could become the needed catalyst to improve the situation and dislocate Bitcoin price action from the drag of the geopolitical news that is weighing. Bitcoin would see the demand on the buy-side blow up and see a big pop above $44,088. Ethereum bulls are breaking their jaws on the 55-day SMA as the price fades further Ethereum (ETH) price is getting crushed against the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,143, with bulls unfit to push and try to close price action above it. After three failed attempts in a row, it is becoming clear that the bullish support is wearing thin as, on Tuesday, the daily candle closed above there, and even if the next day ETH price opened above again, it closed below the 55-day SMA. On Wednesday, finally, both the open and the closing price were below the 55-day SMA. This proves that sentiment has shifted in just three trading days and looks set to fade further away from the 55-day SMA on Friday. Expect going forward in the next coming hours that bulls will get squeezed against the wall at $3,018 with both a pivotal level and the $3,000 marker a few dollars below there. As tensions mount, expect some more negative headlines, a breach in defense of the bulls with even the monthly pivot at $2,929 getting involved in the crosshairs. Depending on the severity and the further deterioration of the political situation in Ukraine and the correction in the stock markets, it is possible to see a nosedive towards $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart Global market sentiment is hanging on the lips of Ukraine and the geopolitical situation. With that, it is clear that once the situation gets resolved or de-escalates, markets can shift 180 degrees in a matter of seconds. That same rule applies to cryptocurrencies where Ethereum could pop back above the 55-day SMA and even set sail for $3,391, breaking the high of February and flirting with new highs for 2022. Bulls joining the rally will want to keep a close eye and be mindful of the RSI, as that would start to flirt with being overbought and, from there on, limiting any further big moves in the hours or next trading days to come. Ethereum short squeeze could trigger a spike to $4,000 XRP price set to lose 10% of market value as headline news breaks down relief rally Ripple (XRP) price is stuck in a pennant and is close to a breakout that looks set to be a bearish one. As global markets are continuing the fade from Wednesday, XRP price is breaking below the recent low and sees bears hammering down on the ascending side of the pennant. As more negative headlines cross the wires, expect this to add ammunition for bears to continue and start breaking the pennant to the downside. XRP price will look for support on the next support at hand, which comes in at $0.78, and depending on the severity of the news flow, that level should hold again as it did on February 14. If that is not the caseany further downside will be cut short by the double bottom around $0.75 from February 12 and 13 and the 55-day SMA coming in at or around that area. With that move, the RSI will be triggering some "oversold" red flags and see bears booking profit. XRP/USD daily chart A false bearish breakout could easily see bears trapped on entering on the break to the downside out of the pennant as bulls go in for the squeeze. That would mean that price shoots up towards $0.88 and takes out this week's high. Bears would be forced to change sides and join the buy-side demand to close their losing positions, adding to even more demand and possibly hitting $0.90 in the process. XRP set to explode towards $1.00, bulls hopeful over SEC vs Ripple case

While US indices plunged yesterday as the situation near the Ukraine-Russia border remained tense with the S & P 500 dropping 2.12%, Nasdaq falling 2.88% and Dow Jones pulling back 1.78%, reports of shelling in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts in eastern Ukraine continue. However, the US President will host a meeting with leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Romania, UK, EU and NATO today which along with an announced meeting between US secretary Blinken and Russia's Lavrov next week has helped moods stabilize slightly. Oil prices pulled back noticeably with Brent dropping below $90 and gold gave up some gains after benefiting from the significant risk-off moods seen this week which saw it reach the highest level since mid 2021. With a lack of data releases and with a long weekend ahead in the US, we could be seeing significant volatility across markets as investors and traders adjust their positions to limit risk exposure and in anticipation of a potential escalation of the conflict. On the other hand, any sign of easing of tensions has been received positively from markets and further indication could lead to a return of risk appetite across asset classes, which could favor stocks as well as the cryptocurrency market, which have struggled to maintain gains lately. UK retail sales point to continued post pandemic recovery Today's retail sales figures continue to provide encouraging signs as the economy recovers from the pandemic and as businesses as well as consumers begin to adjust to rising inflation. While these figures indicated a rise of retail sales volumes by 1.9% in January 2022 following a fall of 4.0% in December 2021, an interesting thing to note is that the proportion of retail sales online fell to 25.3% in January 2022, its lowest level since March 2020 (22.7%). Ultimately, it remains to be seen how the Bank of England's policy will facilitate this trend moving forward in order to avoid a stagnation situation and as rising prices across sectors continue to add pressure.

Gold and oil, former beneficiaries of geopolitical tensions late last week, have gone their separate ways, with the former rising 2.4% and the latter losing 5% since the start of this week. Brent crude rolled back below $90 and, at one point on Friday, was losing 2.3% to $89, despite still worrying reports of tensions around Ukraine and Russia. It has fallen below the local support of the past ten days and is now just one step away from a decline since the start of the month. While geopolitics remains a joker capable of playing, either way, the macroeconomic picture is working to cool the oil price. US commercial oil inventories rose last week against a seasonally typical decline. As a result, inventories are now 10.9% lower than a year earlier, although it was -15% in mid-January. Production stagnated at 11.6m b/d, but at the end of last week, there was an increase in the number of operating oil rigs from 497 to 516. New data will be released later this evening. Probably, we will see more evidence that producers have stepped up production, convinced of the strength of demand and record profits in many years at their disposal. Locally, the activation of extractive companies is playing into the price pullback from current levels. However, it is a factor in slowing price growth in the longer term, but not a failure. The vector of monetary policy is also worth paying attention to. Rising rates often derail speculative growth in oil. We saw the last two examples on this theme in 2014-2015 when oil collapsed by 75%, and in 2018, it fell by 45%. After those hard lessons, OPEC+ has worked much more closely to meet quotas, so we are talking about a correction rather than a new bear market for oil. Speaking of a local correction, we assume a pullback in the Brent price to the $85 area. That is the peak area in October last year and September 2018 and close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from December to mid-February. Deeper drawdowns are also possible if monetary tightening coincides with geopolitical détente and slowing demand. In that case, Brent might briefly correct towards $80. Positive signals on the Iran deal are also factors holding oil back. An agreement with Iran would signal an easing of some of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and add around 1% to the global energy system, allowing the resulting shortfall to be digested and a smooth return to restocking for the world.

The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture. We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.” Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting. WARNING: More Downside To Come Uncertainty abounds regarding the path of inflation and new FED policy. This has created a landscape of continued strong periods of distribution in the equity markets. If there are any bounces, they should be used to sell ‘risk assets’. This has been one of the worst starts to a calendar year in the history of the stock and bond markets. Chart Source: Zero Hedge Last Thursday, the reported inflation rate increased by 7.7 percent, the highest in forty years. Stocks tumble as red-hot inflation print pressures technology shares. Markets didn’t like this, which immediately moved them down. Bears are in control of the market, which can be observed from Friday’s trading session. The U.S. 10-year yield rose above 2% for the first time since August 2019 amid a broad Treasury-market selloff. It was driven by expectations for quicker FED interest-rate hikes to contain faster than predicted inflation. It takes at least two to three years to have any material impact on the economy. One sector is currently doing well, which is the oil sector. Cycle's analysis is applied to find the best stocks to invest in and the best sectors. The next sector we are monitoring is Gold/Silver. Crude oil prices are staying strong. There are a lot of geopolitical factors in play here. I think there's a risk premium on oil right now because of Russia. What The Heck is CPI? The Consumer Price Index, CPI, is the measure of changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. This is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation in households. Consumer Price Index Summary. Last Thursday, the inflation figures were released, confirming that everything is getting more expensive. It is up 7.5 percent versus last year. Mortgage rates are starting to rise. If you plan to buy a new home, this is the time to do it. These historically low interest rates will not last long. Should I Invest In Gold Today? Owning gold acts as a hedge against inflation as well as a good portfolio diversifier as it is a great store of value. Gold also provides financial cover during geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases. Conclusion: It seems the stock market may be on its last leg here. Big money flow has been coming out of the large-cap stocks while commodities have been rising. Commodities are typically one of the last assets to rally before the stock market top and start a bear market. I see all the signs, but we must wait for the price to confirm before taking action. We have seen this setup before in 2015/2016, also in 2018, and the market recovered and rallied dramatically from those levels.  What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

  Gold and the USDX reacted vigorously to the worrisome news concerning Eastern Europe. However, only the latter can be calm about its medium-term future. As geopolitical tensions uplift gold, silver, and mining stocks, they’re in rally mode each time a doom-and-gloom headline surfaces. However, while the ‘will they or won’t they’ saga commands investors’ attention, the USD Index continues to behave rationally. For example, while volatility has increased recently, the dollar basket has held firm. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 17: The USD Index is at its medium-term support line. All previous moves to / slightly below it were then followed by rallies, sometimes really big rallies, so we’re likely to see something like that once again. Such a rally would be the prefect trigger for the triangle-vertex-based reversal in gold and the following slide. Please see below: Furthermore, the USD Index’s recent pullback was far from a surprise. For example, I highlighted on numerous occasions that the greenback is nearing its weekly rising resistance line, and the price action has unfolded as I expected. Moreover, while overbought conditions resulted in a short-term breather, history shows that the USD Index eventually catches its second wind. To explain, I previously wrote: I marked additional situations on the chart below with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. As a result, with the USD Index showcasing a reliable history of profound comebacks, higher highs should materialize over the medium term. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or those of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie, and with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. While very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98-101 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon). Mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone. The EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the financial markets remain on Russia-Ukraine watch. While gold, silver, mining stocks, and the USD Index whipsaw on the news, the technical and fundamental backdrops support higher prices for the latter, not the former. Thus, while geopolitical tensions are always short-term bullish for the precious metals, the rush is often short-lived. As a result, the trios’ downtrends that began in late 2020 will likely resurface once the headline-driven market returns to normal. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

WTI fell into the $89.00s on Friday and current trades about $2.0 down on the day. Technical selling, hope for a diplomatic solution to Ukraine crisis and talk of an Iran/US deal nearing soon weigh on oil. Technical selling, hopes that a high-level US/Russia meeting next week might solve the Ukraine stand-off and bets that US sanctions on Iranian oil exports will soon end amid momentum towards reviving the 2015 nuclear pact weighed on oil on Friday. Front-month WTI futures broke below a key upwards trendline that had been supporting the price action since the start of the year and slumped to the mid-$89.00s per barrel, where they now trade lower by more than $2.0 on the day. Bears will be eyeing an imminent test of the next key area of support in the $88.50 region in the form of last week’s lows. Despite news that pro-Russia separatist leaders in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in Ukraine’s Eastern Donbas region ordered an immediate evacuation of local civilians into Russia as fighting in the region escalates, traders hoped diplomacy could yet prevail. As Russia continue to amass troops on Ukraine’s doorstep, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet face-to-face next week, reportedly under the condition that there will not be a Russian invasion. Separately, OPEC+ sources on Friday said the group thinks a US/Iran deal to revive the 2015 nuclear pact, thus removing US restrictions on Iranian oil exports and allowing for the return of 1.3M barrels per day to global markets, is near. Despite the Iran news and near-term bearish technical picture following the break below key 2022 uptrend support, traders said markets should remain reasonably well support near highs amid continued expectations for tight global oil market conditions.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the gains in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. Over this nine-week time-frame, Euro bets have jumped by a total of +59,460 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 21st to +47,581 net positions this week. These gains in the Euro sentiment have now brought the speculator positioning to the highest level in the past twenty-six weeks, dating back to August 17th. Joining the Euro (8,739 contracts) with positive changes this week were the US Dollar Index (1,621 contracts), Brazil real (3,514 contracts), Mexican peso (7,730 contracts),  British pound sterling (10,782 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,033 contracts), Russian ruble (721 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (104 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-7,014 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,716 contracts), Australian dollar (-953 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-316 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,283 77 35,386 87 -41,548 6 6,162 84 EUR 702,047 84 47,581 50 -85,057 52 37,476 36 GBP 195,302 36 2,237 76 2,874 31 -5,111 45 JPY 199,425 55 -66,162 26 86,256 79 -20,094 6 CHF 45,522 22 -9,715 53 18,888 52 -9,173 36 CAD 144,815 27 12,170 59 -15,116 47 2,946 36 AUD 192,578 77 -86,694 4 97,684 92 -10,990 26 NZD 64,105 71 -9,333 56 12,020 49 -2,687 21 MXN 151,098 26 8,974 31 -12,054 68 3,080 56 RUB 38,960 35 16,164 52 -17,239 46 1,075 64 BRL 67,288 85 23,760 100 -26,225 0 2,465 95 Bitcoin 10,646 56 -215 92 -213 0 428 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,765 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 5.0 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.8 81.5 3.2 – Net Position: 35,386 -41,548 6,162 – Gross Longs: 42,349 2,717 7,897 – Gross Shorts: 6,963 44,265 1,735 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.8 5.6 83.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.4 5.3 5.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,842 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.7 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.3 66.8 7.4 – Net Position: 47,581 -85,057 37,476 – Gross Longs: 217,899 383,827 89,120 – Gross Shorts: 170,318 468,884 51,644 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 51.7 36.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.1 -16.6 15.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,545 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 58.8 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.5 57.4 15.0 – Net Position: 2,237 2,874 -5,111 – Gross Longs: 50,151 114,901 24,257 – Gross Shorts: 47,914 112,027 29,368 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.6 31.4 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.8 -27.6 10.8   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,148 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 83.6 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 40.3 19.6 – Net Position: -66,162 86,256 -20,094 – Gross Longs: 10,425 166,645 18,973 – Gross Shorts: 76,587 80,389 39,067 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.2 79.0 6.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 0.7 5.2   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,399 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 72.6 19.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.4 31.2 39.2 – Net Position: -9,715 18,888 -9,173 – Gross Longs: 3,652 33,069 8,654 – Gross Shorts: 13,367 14,181 17,827 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 52.1 36.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.3 4.8 -11.9   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 40.4 19.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 50.9 17.5 – Net Position: 12,170 -15,116 2,946 – Gross Longs: 54,424 58,524 28,287 – Gross Shorts: 42,254 73,640 25,341 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.5 46.6 35.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.5 -16.4 0.9   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -86,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,741 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.1 81.0 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.1 30.2 15.9 – Net Position: -86,694 97,684 -10,990 – Gross Longs: 11,692 155,928 19,706 – Gross Shorts: 98,386 58,244 30,696 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 91.8 25.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.5 -2.3 1.1   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,366 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.9 55.3 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.4 36.5 8.6 – Net Position: -9,333 12,020 -2,687 – Gross Longs: 24,923 35,432 2,838 – Gross Shorts: 34,256 23,412 5,525 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 48.9 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.8 2.6 -13.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.4 56.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 64.0 2.1 – Net Position: 8,974 -12,054 3,080 – Gross Longs: 59,485 84,673 6,250 – Gross Shorts: 50,511 96,727 3,170 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 67.8 56.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -8.0 3.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,246 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.1 16.5 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.8 55.5 2.4 – Net Position: 23,760 -26,225 2,465 – Gross Longs: 51,868 11,101 4,095 – Gross Shorts: 28,108 37,326 1,630 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 95.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 33.1 -36.1 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,443 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.8 42.2 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 86.4 4.2 – Net Position: 16,164 -17,239 1,075 – Gross Longs: 19,808 16,440 2,700 – Gross Shorts: 3,644 33,679 1,625 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 46.0 63.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -19.2 -12.7   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 3.5 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 80.0 5.5 8.8 – Net Position: -215 -213 428 – Gross Longs: 8,307 369 1,364 – Gross Shorts: 8,522 582 936 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 22.8 22.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.5 -9.8 -6.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

The geopolitical momentum of the escalation/truce situation around Ukraine strikingly has its weekly cycles. Harsh rhetoric seems to peak at the end of the week, followed by the weekend’s relief when the sides look for ways to negotiate, giving a breath of air to global markets early in the week. This week, the same pattern applies with demand for EM currencies and European indices returning to their starting positions before Friday’s collapse. The announced talks between the Russian and US foreign ministers and the chances of a summit between Biden and Putin bring back hopes of a peaceful resolution. However, it is worth realising that the situation remains fragile, and so far, with each new cycle of this momentum, the present situation has become more dramatic. And this is visible in the dynamics of the European indices, where the DAX formed a double top in January and in February began to churn in line with the geopolitical background, maintaining a downward bias and approaching a critical support level that has been in place since last May. The pressure on the DAX to consolidate under the 15,000 mark is occurring on two fronts at once. Firstly, geopolitical tensions are reducing the traction in risky assets of the European region. In addition, fears of energy supply disruptions in the EU due to Russia form the background, with high oil and gas prices holding back the economic recovery. Secondly, the monetary policy outlook continues to be reassessed. ECB officials are talking more and more confidently about a rate hike this year and leaving the door open for such a move as early as September. If the bears manage to push the DAX below the nine-month support, we might see an acceleration of the corrective pullback that could take the index down to 14000 within the next couple of weeks. If the politicians’ rhetoric doesn’t seem to be easing, the next target for a retracement might be the 13000-area, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the extremes of March 2020 and November 2021.

The Swing Overview – Week 7 Macroeconomic events last week had a secondary impact on market volatility. The "big story" that is currently moving the markets is the situation in Ukraine. Equity indices weakened and retested their strong supports. Last week's winner, on the other hand, is the gold, which, due to these geopolitical uncertainties, surprisingly strengthened to USD 1,900 per ounce, where it last traded in June 2021.   Macroeconomic data from the US  US industrial inflation on an annual basis came in at 9.7%, up from 9.8% in the previous month. This is the first decline in industrial inflation since April 2020. Retail sales reported very strong data, rising 3.8% in January (previous month was down 2.5%).  In the labor market, there was an unexpected increase in initial jobless claims of 248k (expectations were for a 219k increase). FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday did not indicate that the Fed was seriously considering a 0.50% rate hike in March. This gave the markets and risk currencies a temporary boost, but the main driver of the markets last week was the situation in Ukraine. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine Last week Friday, when Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, warned that Russia could attack Ukraine "any day now", sent stock indices into the red and investors focused on so-called "save havens" such as the US bonds and the gold, which rallied strongly. In contrast, commodity currencies, stock indices and cryptocurrencies, which are seen as risky assets, weakened. This suggests what might happen if an invasion actually took place. At the moment, however, both sides seem to be open to diplomatic solution of the crisis. This brings some relief and cautious optimism even though further developments are unclear.  Let’s have a look at how the US bond yields are reacting to the situation: Figure 1: 10 year government bond yield on the 4H chart and the USD index on the daily chart Demand for these bonds has been rising as investors view the US government bonds as a "save haven" in times of uncertainty. This increases the price of these bonds. Since there is an inverse relationship between the price of bonds and their interest yield, a rise in the price of bonds then pushes down their yields. This explains why the yield on these bonds fell on Friday last week as a result of the news of a possible Russian attack.   Overall, however, yields on these bonds continue to rise as investors anticipate a rise in the US interest rates. This in turn has had a negative effect on the technology stocks in the NASDAQ index in particular.   NASDAQ a SP500 Figure 2: The US NASDAQ index on H4 and D1 chart The NASDAQ started last week on Friday with a significant decline as the other indices.  Then there was a correction of this decline as news emerged that Russia was withdrawing some of its troops from the Ukrainian border and that military exercises were over. However, the next report was that the US was not seeing any change at the border with Ukraine and the NASDAQ index fell again. The current situation is that both sides have agreed to further negotiations.  It can be seen from this how sensitive the indices are to such news. We therefore recommend that our clients keep an eye on any breaking news that emerges in relation to the situation in Ukraine.  The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 14,606 - 14,673. The next resistance is then 15050 - 15100.  Support according to the H4 chart is at 14,050 - 14,100.  Significant support according to the daily chart is at 13,750-13,950.  As for the US SP 500 index, the situation is similar here.   Figure 3: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The nearest resistance is at 4,471 – 4,491. The next strong resistance is in the area at 4,580 - 4,600.  Support according to the H4 chart is at 4,357 – 4,367. According to the daily chart, significant support is at 4,225 - 4,300.   German DAX index Germany reported ZEW economic sentiment, which came in at 54.3 (previous month 51.7). This indicates an improving outlook for the German economy over the next six months. However, this index was under pressure last week as were the US indices.  Figure 4: The DAX on H4 and daily chart  On February 14, the index fell to 14,841, where the previous support is. The zone of this strong support according to the daily chart is quite wide: 14,800 - 15,000. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 15,440 - 15,530. The next resistance then immediately follows this zone and is in the 15 534 - 15 617 range.   The EUR/USD under pressure The EURUSD has shown that in times of political uncertainty, this pair tends to weaken. The decline was justified in terms of technical analysis by the false break of the resistance, which is in the area of 1.1465 - 1.1480. Figure 5: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the area of 1.1380 - 1.1400. Support according to the H4 chart is at 1.1280 - 1.1300. Very strong support according to the daily chart is then at 1.1120 - 1.1140.   The Gold The gold surprised last week with unexpected strength based on the situation around Ukraine. News that Russia may attack Ukraine any day has caused the gold price to rise. It eventually reached $1,900 per troy ounce, where it last traded in June 2021.  Figure 6: The gold on the H4 and D1 chart The nearest resistance according to the daily chart is USD 1,900 - 1,916 per troy ounce of gold.  The nearest support is 1,872 - 1,878. The most significant support is then at 1 845 - 1 852 USD per troy ounce. Once geopolitical tensions calm down and US government bond yields continue to rise, this should be negative news for gold. 

Gold hit fresh multi-month highs near the $1,910 on Monday but has since dropped back under the $1,900 handle. Geopolitics remains the wildcard that could stoke surprise volatility in either a bullish or bearish direction. Spot gold (XAU/USD) prices hit fresh multi-month highs near $1,910 on Monday during Asia Pacific session, but have again failed to hold north of the $1,900 handle. In recent trade, the precious metal has been caught going sideways in the mid-$1,890s, with the prospect for a fresh push higher again on Monday limited by the lack of market volume stateside. US markets are shut on Monday for Presidents Day so it is likely to be a very quiet US session. Geopolitics remains the wildcard that could stoke surprise volatility in either a bullish or bearish direction. The Russian rouble has been coming under significant pressure on Monday, indicative of rising fears of a Russian invasion/military incursion into Ukraine that would trigger a round of sanctions from Western countries against Moscow. Violence between pro-Russia separatists and Ukraine’s military in the contested Donbass region continued on Monday, the former group upping the inflammatory rhetoric by accusing Ukraine’s military of shelling and planning a full-scale assault. This is keeping gold underpinned close to recent highs. At current levels in the mid-$1,890s, the precious metal trades close to flat on the day and only about 0.75% below earlier session highs. One bearish risk to note for gold is whether a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden goes ahead this week following recent chatter. The meeting could be a good opportunity to ease tensions somewhat. Otherwise, US data and Fed speak will be worth watching, but will, for the most part, still play second fiddle to the Ukraine crisis.

USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc surges as the US-Russia stalemate boosts demand for safe haven assets. Consecutive drops below 0.9220 and then 0.9180 suggest that sellers have taken control. The greenback is heading towards January’s double bottom around 0.9110. A break below this key floor would trigger a deeper correction towards the psychological level of 0.9000. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound. The support-turned-resistance at 0.9220 is the level to break to give the bulls any hope of recovery. XAGUSD bounces higher Bullion rallies over ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Silver gained momentum after a break above the supply zone at 23.90. A brief fallback found support over 23.10 which indicates solid buying interest. The price is grinding up along a rising trendline and sentiment remains upbeat as long as it stays above the congestion area near the trendline and 23.60. January’s peak at 24.70 is the target when volatility picks up again. A bullish breakout could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. UK 100 struggles for support The FTSE 100 tumbles as risk appetite slips across the board. The bulls’ latest effort to push beyond 7630 turned out to be futile. A break below 7500 suggests a lack of commitment and weighs on short-term sentiment. Intraday traders have switched sides and look to fade the next bounce towards the former support. A dip below 7430 has opened the door to 7330 as the next target. Further down, the daily support at 7240 would be a major level to keep the uptrend intact in the medium term.

The beginning of Monday in Russia was quite positive: the ruble strengthened, reacting to the announcement of the summit of the leaders of Russia and the United States, mediated by France. The situation deteriorated sharply after the heads of the DPR and LPR turned to Putin with a request to recognize the independence of the republics. Over the weekend, the situation in the LDNR deteriorated sharply: on Friday, the evacuation of citizens to the Russian Federation was announced. Towards the evening, President Putin held an extraordinary extended meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on the recognition of the LPR and DPR. Oil quotes rose noticeably on Monday, reacting to the likely imposition of sanctions against Russia, the world's leading oil producer. Restrictions may lead to interruptions in the supply of raw materials, further exacerbating its market shortage. Prices for Brent oil updated the highs of 2014, adding three dollars, and by the end of the day rose above $97 per barrel. Low-liquid trades aggravated the situation due to the holiday in the USA. While Europe admits that it cannot do without energy and resources from Russia, the banking sector is under attack. Trading volumes on Monday were record-breaking, which indicates the withdrawal of large players from the market. It is also worth paying attention to retailers and technology companies, which may find it difficult to work abroad or import goods and technologies. These sectors will show the most volatility depending on how events unfold. The current situation is tightening financial conditions for Russian companies, destabilizing markets and reducing business predictability. The volatility of the ruble and the closure of the Russian market for global capital will hurt the economy, probably sending it into decline in the coming quarters. In the long term, this threatens to reduce growth potential, which is already lower than that of many developed countries. Such conditions translate for the population into a drop in living standards through a decrease in real incomes or (at best) a dramatic slowdown in their growth.

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,621 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,979 contracts and an increase in short positions by 358 contracts. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the New Zealand dollar. Decrease in total net positions occurred in the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. In the event of a Russian invasion to Ukraine, markets would move into risk-off sentiment. This means that investors would sell risk assets, which include stock indices, and shift their resources into assets that are considered as safe havens in such situations, which include US government bonds and gold. In currency terms, this means that the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in particular could then appreciate in such a situation. Commodity currencies (especially AUD, NZD) might weaken. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Jan 11, 2022 37892 6005 -29166 -91486 -8604 -87525 -7376 -7660 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish Jan 11, 2022 682293 204361 198356 6005 4075 5288 -2271 7559 Bullish         Total change 23829 18826 -30309 49135     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,581 contracts last week, up by 8,739 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,074 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 9,813 contracts. Total net speculators positions have increased by 49,135 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators closing 30,309 short positions and adding 18,826 long positions. This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. However, the rising open interest, which increased by 1,949 contracts in the last week, shows the opposite, as the euro fell down last week and this decline is supported by the rising number of open interest contracts. So more bearish traders were in the market. So we have conflicting information here. The euro weakened slightly last week on fears of an escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Long-term resistance: 1.1461 – 1.15 Support: 1.1280 - 1.1300. Next support is near 1.1220 - 1.1240. A strong support is in 1.1120-1.1140. The British Pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 200493 30506 59672 -29166 486 4526 -5479 10005 Weak bearish         Total change -4705 24171 -17237 41408     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 2,237 contracts last week, up by 10,782 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions of 5,442 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 5,340 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 41,408 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 17,237 short positions and adding 24,171 long positions. This data suggests bullish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 2,646 contracts last week, is indicating that the bullish price action that occurred in the pound last week was not supported by volume and therefore it is weak. Risk off sentiment in US equities could have a negative effect on the Pound as well as the Euro, which could then send the Pound towards support which is at 1.3380. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640. Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. Support: 1.3490 – 1.3520. A next support is near 1.3320 – 1.3380 and then mainly in the zone near 1.3200. The Australian dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 185453 12383 103869 -91486 5346 -249 1871 -2120 Bearish         Total change 12471 -940 -3612 2672     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -86,694 contracts, down 953 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions of 5,631 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 4,678 contracts. This data suggests continued bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 2,672 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exit of 3,612 short contracts while exiting 940 long contracts at the same time. However, last week saw a decrease in open interest of 3,825 contracts. This means that the upward price action that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, we can expect it to weaken especially on the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. Long-term resistance: 0.7200-0.7250 and especially near 0.7270-0.7310. Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120. A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990. The New Zealand dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 42066 10960 19564 -8604 1764 1543 1302 241 Weak bearish         Celková změna 23803 15506 15994 -488     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 9,333 contracts, having increased by 1,033 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 7,755 contracts and an increase in short positions by 6,722 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the New Zealand Dollar continues, but has started to weaken over the past week. Total net positions have declined by 488 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 15,994 short positions and adding 15,506 long positions. Open interest rose significantly last week, increasing by 9,228 contracts. The rise in the NZDUSD price action that occurred last week is therefore supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The reason for the NZD strengthening last week is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to raise interest rates to 1% on Feb 23, 2022. However, if the conflict in Ukraine escalates further, the NZDUSD could more likely weaken. The reason for the NZDUSD's decline from a technical analysis perspective could also be that the NZDUSD price has reached horizontal resistance and also the upper downtrend line from the daily chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6700 – 0.6740 and then 0.6850 – 0.6890. Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530. Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

In times of trouble, bonds are seen as a safe haven and yields fall with stocks.Normally, lower yields boost stocks, an inverse correlation.Understanding the situation is key to trading markets. Could you explain to me the relationship between the movement of 10-year US government bonds and US stock indices? This is a question we have received from a user and the answer is complicated – it depends on the current market focus.Markets are currently in times of trouble, with Russia and Ukraine apparently on the brink of war. Every negative headline prompts investors to sell stocks and buy bonds – moving yields down. So, yields and shares move in tandem. One example is the announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin about the recognition of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Every optimistic headline sends money to stocks and away from Treasuries, pushing yields up, alongside equities. Examples include announcements of high or top-level meetings trying to resolve the situation. Headline-driven markets tend to experience this straightforward correlation between yields and stocks.However, the correlation is inverse when fear of war does not grip markets. In such situations, investors focus on the Federal Reserve. If they think there is a higher chance of more rate hikes, they sell both stocks and bonds – with yields rising to reflect expectations of elevated borrowing costs. Statements about the need for a 50 bps rate hike or strong economic data are examples of such behavior. When some Fed official says the path of rate hikes is slower, investors are happy to push yields lower by buying bonds and they also purchase stocks, which have a bigger advantage when the comparative safe investment in Treasuries results in a lower yield. A comment by a Fed official about settling for a standard 25 bps rate hike triggers such a reaction. Normal markets tend to experience an inverse correlation between bonds and stocks.

After hitting fresh multi-month highs at $1914, spot gold is consolidating above $1900 as the Russia/Ukraine crisis escalates.As traders worry about the rising risk of a full-scale Russian military incursion into Ukraine, gold will likely remain supported.As the Russia/Ukraine crisis continues to escalate, most recently with Russia recognising the independence of and moving troops into two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, prompting NATO nations to announce/prepare new sanctions on Russia, gold has moved back above $1900. Spot prices (XAU/USD) hit fresh multi-month highs at $1914 on Tuesday and, though pulling back from these highs printed during Asia pacific trade as dip-buying facilitating an intra-day rebound in global equities markets, has remained above the key $1900 level.With market participants nervous that Russia/pro-Russia separatists in Eastern Ukraine could initiate further hostilities against Ukraine, thus further escalating the risk of an all-out Ukraine/Russia conflict, gold is likely to remain well underpinned this week. Brent oil spiked to close to $100 per barrel on Tuesday and EU natural gas prices were up sharply as Germany pledged not to approve the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would bring gas directly to Germany from Russia. The upside risks posed to global inflation from any continued spike in energy prices as a result of further Russia/Ukraine crisis escalation is likely boosting demand for gold as an inflation hedge.Recent Fed speak and US data releases have not had much of an impact on gold in recent days as price action takes its cue from geopolitics. Hawkish commentary from Fed’s Michelle Bowman on Monday, who essentially said she was still undecided as the whether the Fed should hike rates by 25 or 50bps in March, was roundly shrugged off. That suggests that other Fed speak this week is also likely to be ignored, or, at least, play second fiddle, with this also likely the case for Friday’s January US Core PCE inflation data. Ahead of that, traders should keep an eye on upcoming US PMI and CB Consumer Confidence surveys, both the flash readings for February.

  The current military tensions and the Fed’s sluggishness favor gold bulls, but not all events are positive for the yellow metal. What should we be aware of? It may be quiet on the Western Front, but quite the opposite on the Eastern Front. Russia has accumulated well over 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine and makes provocations practically every day, striving for war more and more clearly. Last week, shelling was reported on Ukraine’s front line and Russia carried out several false flag operations. According to Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, “the evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion.” Meanwhile, President Biden said: “We have reason to believe they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in. Every indication we have is they're prepared to go into Ukraine and attack Ukraine.” Of course, what politicians say should always be taken with a pinch of salt, but it seems that the situation has gotten serious and the risk of Russian invasion has increased over recent days.   Implications for Gold What does the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, the last week was definitely bullish for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London P.M. Fix) rallied over the past few days from $1,849 to $,1894, the highest level since June 2021; And he gold futures have even jumped above $1,900 for a while! Part of that upward move was certainly driven by geopolitical risks related to the assumed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is because gold is a safe-haven asset in which investors tend to park their money in times of distress. It’s worth remembering that not all geopolitical events are positive for gold, and when they are, their impact is often short-lived. Hence, if Russia invades Ukraine, the yellow metal should gain further, but if uncertainty eases, gold prices may correct somewhat. To be clear, the timing of the current military tensions is favorable for gold bulls. First of all, we live in an environment of already high inflation. Wars tend to intensify price pressure as governments print more fiat money to finance the war effort and reorient their economies from producing consumer goods toward military stuff. Not to mention the possible impact of the conflict on oil prices, which would contribute to rising energy costs and CPI inflation. According to Morgan Stanley’s analysts, further increases in energy prices could sink several economies into an outright recession. Second, the pace of economic growth is slowing down. The Fed has been waiting so long to tighten its monetary policy that it will start hiking interest rates in a weakening economic environment, adding to the problems. There is a growing risk aversion right now, with equities and cryptocurrencies being sold off. Such an environment is supportive of gold prices. Third, the current US administration has become more engaged around the world than the previous one. My point is that the current conflict is not merely between Russia and Ukraine, but also between Russia and the United States. This is one of the reasons why gold has been reacting recently to the geopolitical news. However, a Russian invasion of Ukraine wouldn’t pose a threat to America, and the US won’t directly engage in military operations on Ukrainian land, so the rally in gold could still be short-lived. If history is any guide, geopolitical events usually trigger only temporary reactions in the precious metals markets, especially if they don’t threaten the United States and its economy directly. This is because all tensions eventually ease, and after a storm comes calm. Hence, although the media would focus on the conflict, don’t get scared and – when investing in the long run – remember gold fundamentals. Some of them are favorable, but we shouldn’t forget about the Fed’s tightening cycle and the possibility that disinflation will start soon, which could raise the real interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Hi traders, today we’re looking at the SPX500 after buyers re-held long-term support yesterday. Until yesterday’s hold trade had been one way on the SPX500 as markets continued to deal with the ongoing tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Over the last three weeks, just over 5% was wiped off the index as investors fled back to safety. yes yesterday’s developments were not the best but to the markets, it looks like the lesser of two evils. Price re-held at 4270 long-term support maintaining the level that’s held since July 2021. For now, this is our line, while things in Europe continue at the current situation we hope to see this level continue to hold. This could feed further value buying and validate the new V pattern that we’re seeing set up. We want to see further buying to really start confirming this pattern. If buyers can get a new leg higher going we see 4470 as potential resistance. If things escalate in Europe and price breaks key support, that not only resumes the current downtrend but also confirms the SPX500 in official correction status. SPX500 D1 Chart The post CFD Update: SPX500 holds at support but will we see a rally? appeared first on Eightcap.

So, the week is coming to an end, but markets stay awake all days long. Right after midnight we’re all welcomed to join our friends from Australia in reviewing Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q4) (Prev. -2.2%). Afterwards, at 7.30 a.m. Swiss Employment Level (Q4) will be released. Heading to Oceanic Area, India will release RBI MPC Meeting Minutes, followed by Brazilian Unemployment Rate (Prev. 11.6%) Released half an hour later. Back to Europe, shortly after midday ECB McCaul is going to declare. At 1 a.m. Russia will release their Central Bank Reserves and 15 minutes later BoE Gov Bailey is going to give a speech. At 2.40 p.m. ECB Supervisory Board Member Fernandez-Bollo is going to speak. Isabel Schnabel will take her turn more than hour later. USA – At 1.30 p.m. GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Prev. 6.9%), GDP Price Index (Prev. 7.0%) and Initial Jobless Claims (Prev. 248K) will be released. In the same time, but in Canada, we will meet the latest Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Prev. 0.7%). In the afternoon we will get to know US New Home Sales (MoM) and Crude Oil Inventories (Prev. 1.121M) and Cushing Crude Oil Inventories. Some would say that 24/02 is the day of speeches what is not exaggerated as FOMC Members speaks from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. We will get the Thursday ended with New Zealand’s Core Retail Sales (QoQ) (Prev. -6.7%), Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4) (Prev. -8.1%), Trade Balance (YoY) (Jan) (Prev. -6.780M) followed by Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) (Prev. -0.2%) and CPI Tokyo Ex Food And Energy (MoM) (Feb) (Prev. -0.3%) Source: Investing.com Tiime: GMT

Over the last several weeks, traders would have heard of and watched the unfolding Ukraine crisis. Russia built up a mass of troops and military hardware on the border, which started sending shockwaves through the markets that an invasion and new European conflict could be developing. This is not the first time we have seen Russian aggression towards Ukraine. In 2014 we all watched as Russia annexed Crimea after Moscow said it supported the liberty and backing the people’s free will as they wanted to rejoin Russia and break away from Ukraine. During this round, the situation felt and looked different due to the sheer build-up of the Russian military. Ukraine requesting to join NATO and the possibility of U.S./NАТО bases being built in Ukraine look like a flashpoint for the Russian side. Despite talks and negotiations, Russia continued to amass military close to the border, feeding invasion fears. Reasons continued to put out by the Kremlin, scheduled military exercises with Belarus. These failed to settle nerves as Western leaders continued to put forward prosed crippling sanctions that would be imposed if Russia invaded. The worst seemed possible late last week, and reports emerged of explosions and fighting in the two eastern parts of Ukraine. Russian tank numbers also increased, and we all thought it was just a matter of when we would see a Russian invasion. Biden offered Putin a summit only if he hadn’t invaded at the final hour. This is off the table now that Russia has once again pulled off another Crimea to a degree. Yesterday we heard that the two Eastern areas of Ukraine had voiced their right to become independent. The Kremlin supported them immediately and advised it had crossed the border to support a peaceful transition with a peacekeeping mission. In other words, a proxy invasion. President Biden has called this an invasion of Ukraine and announced sweeping sanctions on the Russian bank VEB and its military bank and cuts them out of any USD transactions. Individual sanctions, Biden said the adult children and members of Putin’s inner circle “share the corrupt gains of the Kremlin’s policies, and so they ought to share in the pain as well.” The sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt expand upon Biden’s existing restrictions set in 2021 and prohibit American banks from trading shares in and or lending to several significant Russian sovereign debt funds. Prime Minister Johnson also made good on his threat of sanctions. The first tranche of sanctions would target Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank and the Black Sea Bank. The new sanctions also include three “very high net worth” individuals: Gennady Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg and Igor Rotenberg. Germany has halted approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline due to Russia’s actions, and the EU has agreed on sanctions to hurt Russia. The crisis had a significant impact on the markets. As you would expect, we have seen plenty of movement away from risk markets, but it hasn’t been totally black and white. Energy, oil has been driven higher during the crisis, and we’ve watched USOUSD (WTI) jump by 28% in the last three months. Price trading at $96 this week. Spot gas surged this week, hitting 6.70 but has pulled back to 4.31. Russia is a major energy supplier to Europe. This is a major card they hold. Traders will be watching oil and gas as any new aggression could cause oil to spike. We could even see $100 or higher reached again. The markets are a funny beast, and if they see the situation as calm, don’t be surprised if we continue to see price pullback. Sky-high oil prices could impact the FED. Crude prices can drive up inflation and slow down the global economy. A surge in oil could cause the Fed to rethink its pace of hiking due to growth concerns. FX, the USD and JPY have seen phases of demand during the crisis, but they have been far from dominant. Looking at this month’s trade so far, we can see that mainly the EUR has been most affected with falls to the two safe-havens. The GBP has been flat, and the AUD has been stronger. The AUD rallied yesterday as the situation developed and so far looks to be ignoring the situation. If we had seen an all-out invasion and this could still be a possibility, we would expect a traditional reaction on FX with the USD and JPY rallying on safe-haven demand. Gold has seen strong demand during the crisis. Traders jumping back into the metal as it moves back to a safe haven. This is not strange. Gold has always had multiple functions in the market, and in times of war or crisis, traders can look to it over fiat. Looking at the current month on the monthly chart, we can see this clearly in action as price has jumped by over 5%. The weekly shows a triangle breakout, but we will need to watch ongoing developments to see if buyer momentum remains. The Ukrainian crisis has hit stock indexes that could have been seen as overvalued. The Dax, in particular, has been hit hard. U.S. and Asian indexes haven’t been spared with heavy selling over the last two weeks. Markets fought back yesterday after the SP500 touched correction territory, and as mentioned above, traders will be focusing on the escalation of the crisis. If the situation intensifies, we would be looking for further lows, and if things continue to calm down, we could see counter-rallies and ranges set up. Cryptocurrencies have traded mainly lower during the crisis. Clearly, we can see at this point that they’re viewed as risk assets and are acting accordingly. It hasn’t been all one-way traffic, Kyber has added 38% YTD and so far has resisted the falls we have seen on the top 10 and top 25 indexes. Coins have been firmer since Tuesday’s updates, following other risk markets higher. Polkadot, Cardando were two top ten coins that hit new lows for 2022 before value buying returned this week. Again, we see the fortunes of most coins tied to risk demand. If things escalate, we will be looking for further declines across the top 10 and 25. The post How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far appeared first on Eightcap.

DWAC stock spiked 28% in Tuesday's premarket after TRUTH Social began accepting users.Tuesday's regular session, however, saw DWAC jump only half as high.Digital World Acquisition Corp's share count is expected to more than quadruple one month after merger closes.Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) stock could not compete in Tuesday's regular session with its performance in the premarket. DWAC shares exploded 28% to $108 before the markets opened on Tuesday. Once the public session got under way, however, DWAC could not even break $100. The Special Purpose Acquisition Vehicle (SPAC) slated to take former President Donald Trump's Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) public in the next month still closed up 10.2% to $92.90 on a day when most equities sold off due to tensions on the Ukraine-Russia front.Donald Trump's social media startup, TRUTH Social, began allowing app downloads on Apple devices on Sunday, February 20, which caused the price to spike on Tuesday when markets opened after the Presidents' Day holiday.Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News: 172K waitlistedOn Tuesday, Newsweek reported that more than 172,000 accounts had been waitlisted, and other sources said many of those seeking to gain access had received error messages. Research firm Apptopia estimated there were 170,000 downloads on Monday in the US. The app was the top free download in Apple's App Store on Monday.This was good news for the most part since trouble accessing a new app due to popularity is normally a sign that it is a hit. Traders, however, began taking profits almost immediately when DWAC shares popped to $99 at the open.A steady drip of new download figures should buoy the stock in the coming days as the company has said it may take 10 days to onboard all the early adopters. The only major worry going forward is the coming share count increase. Thirty days after the merger is completed, separate shares owned by insiders, underwriters, and private investors who invested in the SPAC's separate PIPE deal (Private Investment in Public Equity) will be allowed to trade. This means that the current 37 million-odd shares will grow overnight to more than 170 million. Though this is not a standard dilution event, the increase may put downward pressure on the share price.Additionally, another 40 million "earnout" shares might be earned by company insiders and owners if the share price remains above $15, $20 or $30 a share on average in the month after the merger. Then there are the 15 million warrants that could get exercised in September 2022. By the end of the year, there could be 225 million total shares. Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock Forecast: Two top trend linesAfter opening on Tuesday at $99, the stock immediately sold down to $85.67 before rebounding throughout the rest of the day. Twice during Tuesday's session, DWAC faced resistance near $96.DWAC is trading within an ascending price channel, which gives the market confidence to hold out for higher prices. Traders should note that there are two separate possible top trend lines available to them. The first one (yellow) is the more recent trend that began on January 24. It is much steeper and takes a trajectory aimed at the 161.8% Fibonacci level at $134.90. The other (blue) began back on December 8 and takes a more conservative and gradual aim at the $120 level, which was significant during the first rally in price action back during late October.The swing highs from January 19, February 7 and 22 are all slightly higher than one another, demonstrating that and uptrend is definitely motion no matter which top trend line is preferred. Support sits at $78, $60 and $38. DWAC 1-day chart

  Stocks were volatile yesterday and the broad stock market fell by another 1%. Was it a final decline or just another leg within a downtrend? The S&P 500 index lost 1.01% on Tuesday, Feb. 22, as it extended its last week’s Thursday’s-Friday’s sell-off. The daily low was at 4,267.11, and the market closed slightly above the 4,300 mark. We’ve seen a lot of volatility following the U.S. President Biden’s speech on Russia-Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.7% higher. We may see more volatility, however it looks like a short-term bottoming pattern. The nearest important resistance level is at 4,350-4,400, marked by the recent local low and some previous support levels. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,250-4,300, among others. The S&P 500 index trades within its late January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It extended the downtrend on Monday, but it managed to stay slightly above its late January local lows. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation. It may be a bottoming pattern before an upward correction. Yesterday, we decided to open a speculative long position before the opening of the cash market. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index went below the 4,300 level yesterday, as investors reacted to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis news. The market may be trading within a short-term consolidation and we may see an attempt at reversing the downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely bounce or fluctuate following its late last week’s sell-off We are maintaining our yesterday’s long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  To the disappointment of gold bulls, the yellow metal’s upward trend will not last long. Fundamentals have already taken their toll on gold miners.  While gold remains uplifted due to the Russia-Ukraine drama, the GDXJ ETF declined for the second-straight day on Feb. 22. Moreover, I warned on numerous occasions that the junior miners are more correlated with the general stock market than their precious metals peers. As a result, when the S&P 500 slides, the GDXJ ETF often follows suit. To that point, with shades of 2018 unfolding beneath the surface, the Russia-Ukraine headlines have covered up the implications of the current correction. However, the similarities should gain more traction in the coming weeks. For context, I wrote on Feb. 22: When the Fed’s rate hike cycle roiled the NASDAQ 100 in 2017-2018, the GDXJ ETF suffered too. Thus, while the Russia-Ukraine drama has provided a distraction, the fundamentals that impacted both asset classes back then are present now. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the GDXJ ETF in 2018, while the black line above tracks the NASDAQ 100. If you analyze the performance, you can see that the Fed’s rate hike cycle initially rattled the former and the latter rolled over soon after. However, the negativity persisted until Fed Chairman Jerome Powell performed a dovish pivot and both assets rallied. As a result, with the Fed Chair unlikely to perform a dovish pivot this time around, the junior miners have some catching up to do. Furthermore, while the S&P 500 also reacts to the geopolitical risks, the Fed’s looming rate hike cycle is a much bigger story. With the U.S. equity benchmark also following its price path from 2018, a drawdown to new 2022 lows should help sink the GDXJ ETF. Please see below: Source: Morgan Stanley To explain, the yellow line above tracks the S&P 500 from March 2018 until February 2019, while the blue line above tracks the index's current movement. If you analyze the performance, it's a near-splitting image. Moreover, while Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist Michael Wilson thinks a relief rally to ~4,600 is plausible, he told clients that "this correction looks incomplete." "Rarely have we witnessed such weak breadth and havoc under the surface when the S&P 500 is down less than 10%. In our experience, when such a divergence like this happens, it typically ends with the primary index catching down to the average stock," he added. As a result, while a short-term bounce off of oversold conditions may materialize, the S&P 500's downtrend should resume with accelerated fervor. In the process, the GDXJ ETF should suffer materially as the medium-term drama unfolds.  To that point, the Fed released the minutes from its discount rate meetings on Jan. 18 and Jan. 26. While the committee left interest rates unchanged, the report revealed: “Given ongoing inflation pressures and strong labor market conditions, a number of directors noted that it might soon become appropriate to begin a process of removing policy accommodation. The directors of three Reserve Banks favored increasing the primary credit rate to 0.50 percent, in response to elevated inflation or to help manage economic and financial stability risks over the longer term.” For context, the hawkish pleas came from the Cleveland, St. Louis, and Kansas City Feds. Moreover, the last time Fed officials couldn’t reach a unanimous decision was October 2019. As a result, the lack of agreement highlights the monetary policy uncertainty that should help upend financial assets in the coming months. As evidence, the report also revealed: Source: U.S. Fed Thus, while I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, the Russia-Ukraine drama has been a short-term distraction. However, with Fed officials highlighting that growth and inflation meet their thresholds for tightening monetary policy, higher real interest rates and a stronger USD Index will have much more influence over the medium term. To that point, IHS Markit released its U.S. Composite PMI on Feb. 22. With the headline index increasing from 51.1 in January to 56.0 in February, an excerpt from the report read: “February data highlighted a sharp and accelerated increase in new business among private sector companies that was the fastest in seven months. Firms mentioned that sales were boosted by the retreat of the pandemic, improved underlying demand, expanded client bases, aggressive marketing campaigns and new partnerships. Customers reportedly made additional purchases to avoid future price hikes. Quicker increases in sales (trades) were evident among both manufacturers and service providers.” More importantly, though: Source: IHS Markit In addition, since the Fed’s dual mandate includes inflation and employment, the report revealed: Source: IHS Markit Likewise, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, added: “With demand rebounding and firms seeing a relatively modest impact on order books from the Omicron wave, future output expectations improved to the highest for 15 months, and jobs growth accelerated to the highest since last May, adding to the upbeat picture.” If that wasn't enough, the Richmond Fed released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Feb. 22. While the headline index wasn't so optimistic, the report revealed that "the third component in the composite index, employment, increased to 20 from 4 in January" and that "firms continued to report increasing wages." For context, the dashed light blue line below tracks the month-over-month (MoM) change, while the dark blue line below tracks the three-month moving average. If you analyze the former's material increase, it's another data point supporting the Fed's hawkish crusade. Source: Richmond Fed Finally, the Richmond Fed also released its Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity on Feb. 22. For context, the U.S. service sector suffers the brunt of COVID-19 waves. However, the recent decline in cases has increased consumers’ appetite for in-person activities. The report revealed: “Fifth District service sector activity showed improvement in February, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The revenues index increased from 4 in January to 11 in February. The demand index remained in expansionary territory at 23. Firms also reported increases in spending, as the index for capital expenditures, services expenditures, and equipment and software spending all increased.” Furthermore, with the employment index increasing from 12 to 14, the wages index increasing from 41 to 46, and the average workweek index increasing from 9 to 10, the labor market strengthened in February. Likewise, the index that tracks businesses’ ability to find skilled workers increased from -21 to -19. As a result, inflation, employment and economic growth create the perfect cocktail for the Fed to materially tighten monetary policy in the coming months.  Source: Richmond Fed The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine saga may dominate the headlines for some time, the bearish fundamentals that hurt gold and silver in 2021 remain intact: the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and demand is still fueling inflation. Moreover, with information technology and communication services’ stocks – which account for roughly 39% of the S&P 500 – highly allergic to higher interest rates, the volatility should continue to weigh on the GDXJ ETF. As such, while gold may have extended its shelf life, mining stocks may not be so lucky. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Feb. 22, as the news cycle continues to swing financial assets in either direction. However, while headlines may have a short-term impact, technicals and fundamentals often reign supreme over the medium term. As a result, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

WTI is trading more calmly on Wednesday and is currently roughly flat in the $92.00 area awaiting fresh geopolitical developments. As geopolitical risk premia remains elevated, oil is likely to remain a buy on dips. A possible US/Iran nuclear deal, which would free up 1.3M BPD in exports, is a downside risk traders should note. After Tuesday’s choppy session which saw front-month WTI futures print fresh seven-year highs at $96.00 per barrel before swinging lower again, oil markets are experiencing calmer conditions on Wednesday. WTI is currently trading towards the top of mid-$90 to mid-$92.00 intra-day ranges near the $92.00 mark, where it is broadly flat on the day. Wednesday’s roughly $2.0 intra-day range compares to Tuesday’s intra-day range of more than $5.50. Crude oil markets are continuing to monitor developments regarding the Ukraine crisis as fears about a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine remain elevated and Western nations hit Russia with sanctions over its recognition of the independence of breakaway Ukrainian regions. These sanctions have so far been focused on targeting Russian banks and wealthy individuals, with US President Joe Biden on Tuesday making it clear that the US wasn’t yet to target Russian commodity exports. The geopolitical impetus for WTI to push above $96.00 and on towards $100, thus, is not yet there. But US officials have signalled that if Russia takes further aggressive action against Ukraine all options for further sanctions are on the table and this is a key risk oil traders will be monitoring in the coming days. “The prospect of more conflict in Ukraine should safeguard the geopolitical risk premium,” said one commodity analyst, whilst another warned that “There is a risk that Russia will retaliate to the sanctions by reducing deliveries of its own accord”. Thus, for now, it seems likely that dips back towards $90.00 will continue to be bought, as has been the case over the past two or so weeks. Eyes will be on a meeting of the UN General Assembly on Ukraine later in the day, which should generate fresh geopolitical headlines, as well as US weekly oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute at 2130GMT. Another theme at the top of oil traders’ minds is the prospect of a US/Iran nuclear deal. A deal would pave the way for the US to lift sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports. According to ING, this would ease concerns over OPEC+ spare capacity (or lack thereof). The bank said “Iran is currently producing at around 2.5mln BPD but is estimated to have a capacity of closer to 3.8mln BPD, therefore, over time there is the potential for 1.3mln BPD of additional supply to come onto the market”. “Nuclear talks in Vienna are reaching a sensitive and important point” said Iran's foreign minister on Wednesday.

  The war has begun: after a few weeks of tense situation, Russia has taken a radical step and started an invasion of Ukraine. How will this affect gold? Boy, ! The Russia-Ukraine conflict is intensifying swiftly. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the recognition of two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk regions). The decree also included an order to send Russian troops there as “peacekeeping forces”. In response, Ukraine declared a state of emergency, while the EU banned purchases of Russian government bonds and imposed sanctions on most members of the Russian parliament. Germany froze approvals for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. American President Joe Biden also released the first tranche of sanctions against Russia, targeted mainly at banks and sovereign debt, and promised further moves: Today, I am announcing the first tranche of sanctions to impose a cost on Russia in response to their actions yesterday. We’ll continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates. We are implementing full blocking sanctions on two large Russian financial institutions VEB and military bank. We are implementing comprehensive sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt. That means we’ve cut off Russia’s government from Western financing. Starting tomorrow, we’ll also impose sanctions on Russia’s elites and family members. Putin wasn’t apparently impressed by these sanctions, as he authorized a military operation in eastern Ukraine early Thursday. The invasion has started. Indeed, there are reports of Russian troops crossing the Ukrainian border in multiple locations, and of explosions in many of the country’s cities, including the capital, Kyiv. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted that: Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes. This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now.   Implications for Gold What does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, risk aversion has soared amid the conflict. Equities are plunging while safe-haven assets are soaring. This, of course, applies also to gold, which rallied to $1,905 on Wednesday, the highest level since January 2021, as the chart below shows. In response to the invasion, the price of the yellow metal continued its upward trend, soaring to $1,945 on early Thursday, as one can see in the chart below. The move was perfectly in line with what I wrote on Tuesday: “if Russia invades Ukraine, the yellow metal should gain further.” Now, the question is: what next? I’m not a military expert, so I have no idea how the conflict will end. However, I know three things. The first is that the conflict will last some time. During the escalation period, gold prices will be driven up by risk aversion and safe-haven demand. Second, the conflict will start to de-escalate and end at some point. Then, we could see a correction in the gold market. Having said that, the yellow metal doesn’t have to immediately return to the pre-conflict level, as it could be supported by other factors, such as worries about inflation, and generally a rather bullish momentum. My point is that geopolitical events usually exert only a short-lived impact on gold, as they don’t affect the true fundamentals of the gold market. These will be shaped by the inflation path and the Fed’s reaction to it. Third, the upcoming weeks could be hot for the gold market. Don’t let emotions affect your investments. Remember the initial stage of the coronavirus pandemic? We all felt fear then – but it wasn’t the best investment advisor. War is also terrifying, but so far the conflict is limited to Ukraine and Russia and we don’t know yet whether the invasion will really escalate into a full-blown, bloody war. Be calm and stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Ukraine had been bombarded this morning and as expected markets are affected by this military events. Indices: RUS50 (RTS) lost ca. 36 pp, what sent it to near the level of 740.00. DAX (GER 40) went down as well, but not that much and quickly bounced - trades Ca. 14050. Commodities:Natural Gas increases and nears level of 4.900 and what’s naturally not surprising, USOIL (WTI) Trades Near 97.20 per barrel what’s a 4 pp added after Russian invasion. Forex pairs: EURUSD noted a noticeable slide down to 1.24500, RUBUSD decreased by 10 pp and trades near 0.11300. Cryptomarket: BTCUSD price chart shows not many fluctuations – Bitcoin hasn’t lost a lot (yet) and trades near 35371.00. Ether decreased by ca. $100 but is currently regaining the losses and heading to 2425.00 level

The end of trading on Wednesday indicated growing concern as the ruble went into a sharp dive and the early start of trading marked increased sales. We saw 95.2425 for the euro and 84.075 for the dollar. After that, trading was halted as stock prices hit the lower limits set by the exchange, and there were no buyers in the stock order books - only sellers. The Moscow Exchange has suspended trading on all markets, including the currency and stock sections. SPB Exchange has suspended trading from 08:10 Moscow time for all types of securities and all trading modes. The ruble in indicative trading lost more than 10% against the dollar and the euro, the rate of which exceeds 90 and 101 rubles, respectively. Practically all financial instruments traded at the morning session are resting on the lower bars set by the exchange. Everything happened after the special operation announced by President Putin in the Donbass and reports of the shelling of military airports throughout Ukraine. The Bank of Russia announced the start of interventions in the foreign exchange market in order to slightly restrain the panicky unilateral fall of the ruble, which at the moment allowed the exchange rate to retreat from extremes. However, in such situations, it is pointless to wait for a reversal. The actions of central banks always only soften the blow but do not reverse the market. Despite the interventions and suspension of trading, extreme pressure on the Russian market promises to persist in the coming days. This is truly a new reality that we have not seen throughout our lives. The situation with Ukraine is developing according to the most dramatic scenario and will inevitably entail the most severe consequences that Russia has threatened in recent days. It is difficult to talk about some levels where the Russian currency or the market as a whole can stabilize. Recent events have pushed the ruble into uncharted territory. The latest quotes of the ruble on the Moscow Exchange show a price of 84 per dollar, and in indicative trading, it is already reaching 90. It looks like the ruble will slide very quickly down to 110 per dollar in the coming days and weeks. And near these levels, it will be necessary to look at the situation. In general, the fall of the ruble promises to carry on in the near future, while the shelling continues and the most severe sanctions are imposed on Russia. Hopes for stabilization now we can get only from politicians. The Ukrainian hryvnia, like the ruble, is trading below the levels from which it has repeatedly turned to growth since 2014. Here, too, the market has crossed the line of the conventional norm of the last eight years. From the current levels near 30 hryvnias per dollar, the outcome of this fall should be looked for, perhaps, at about 40.

Bitcoin was down 1% on Wednesday, ending the day near $37,600, but it is losing another 7% on Thursday morning, trading below $35,000. Ethereum has lost 12% to $2,340 in the last 24 hours. Leading altcoins show a proportionate decline. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 8.4% over the day, to $1.57 trillion. The index of fear and greed of the crypto market fell by 2 points to 23, but being updated once a day, it clearly does not take into account the latest dramatic movements. The aggravation of tension around Ukraine exerted pressure on risky assets. There are growing risks of escalation associated with the introduction of Russian troops into Donbass. In such a situation, risky assets may continue to decline further. At the moment, we see that cryptocurrencies are selling stronger than developed world stocks (although not as extreme as Russian ones), confirming the risky nature of these assets and how they are not a replacement for gold. According to Glassnode, the wallets of long-term investors (hodlers) hold record volumes of BTC (76.5%). The volume of bitcoins, which have been without movement for more than 10 years, is also growing (12.6%). Thus, almost 90% of all currently available coins are out of the market. Now another country besides El Salvador may accept bitcoin as a means of payment. Senator Indira Kempis is developing a bill on cryptocurrencies and intends to convince the Mexican government to follow the "Salvadorian scenario" by recognizing BTC as a means of payment. Former SEC official Joseph Hall called the department's chances of losing the lawsuit against Ripple high. The regulator accuses the company of selling unregistered securities under the guise of XRP tokens.

USOIL continues to climb WTI crude surged after Russia launched a military operation in eastern Ukraine. The latest market jitters met support over 90.70 which sits next to the 20-day moving average. Sentiment would stay optimistic as long as price action is above this demand zone. A previous horizontal consolidation allowed the bulls to catch their breath and accumulate for the current push. A close above 95.50 would send the price towards the landmark 100.00. An overbought RSI may cause a brief pause if momentum traders take profit. NZDUSD hits resistance The New Zealand dollar jumped after the RBNZ raised rates for the third time in a row. The pair met selling pressure in the supply zone (0.6810) from the sell-off in late January. An overextended RSI led short-term bulls to take profit in that congestion area. However, the rebound trajectory may attract buying interest with the current pullback seen as an opportunity. 0.6680 is the next support after a drop below 0.6730. A deeper correction may test 0.6600, which is important support from the daily chart. AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar retreats amid cautious market sentiment. A break above the recent peak at 0.7245 suggests a strong bullish commitment. The pair is heading towards January’s high at 0.7310. A bullish breakout could turn things around in the medium term. After the RSI ventured into the overbought area, the bullish impetus stalled as intraday buyers took profit. 0.7165 is the next support as the RSI swings into the oversold area. Further down, 0.7100 is a key floor to keep the rebound intact.

The worst case scenario - Russian invasion of Ukraine - is materializing. We try to analyze its consequences for the economy and financial markets Oil price increases past $100 per barrel Russia is a key player on the energy commodities market, especially important for Europe. Situation on the oil market proves it - oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. Russia is exporting around 5 million barrels of oil each day, around 5% of global demand. Around a half of that is exported to the European Union. If the West decides to cut Russia off the SWIFT settlements system, Russian exports to the European Union could be halted. In such a scenario oil prices could jump $20-30 per barrel. In our opinion, the war risk premium included in current oil barrel prices amounts to $15-20. Europe is the main recipient of Russian oil. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Gold and palladium rally Conflict is the main driver of moves on the gold market. It is not the first time when gold proves to be a good store of value at times of geopolitical conflicts. Ounce of gold trades over 3% higher today, near $1,970, and just slightly over $100 below its all-time highs. Russia is an important producer of palladium, an important metal for the automotive sector. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Russia is a significant producer of palladium, which is a key metal in production of catalytic converters for the automotive sector. Palladium prices rallied almost 8% today. Fear means sell-off on the market Global stock markets are taking a hit not seen since 2020. However, panic is not as big as it was in early-2020. Uncertainty is the most important driver for global stock markets now as investors do not know what will come next. Correction on Nasdaq-100 futures deepened past 20% today. A big part of this drop, however, was caused by expectations of Fed tightening. DAX futures dropped around 15% since mid-January and trade near pre-pandemic highs. DE30 trades to halt decline at pre-pandemic high. Source: xStation5 Business in Ukraine is in danger It should not come as a surprise that Russian companies and companies with big exposure to Russia are the ones taking the biggest hit. Russian RTS dropped over 60% off the October 2021 high and briefly traded below 2020 lows! Polymetal International is a company worth mentioning - stock is plunging over 30% on London Stock Exchange as market fears sanctions will hit Anglo-Russian companies. Renault is also taking a hit as Russia is the second biggest market for the company. Banks with large exposure to Russia - UniCredit and Societe Generale - are also dropping hard. Even higher inflation From an economic point of view the situation is clear - military conflict will generate a new inflationary impulse. Prices of almost all commodities are trading higher, especially energy commodities. However, in case of commodity markets, a lot will depend on how conflict impacts logistics. Keep in mind that global logistics have not recovered from Covid-19 hit yet and now another negative factor is surfacing. According to the New York Fed index, global supply chains are the most tight on record. Central bankers' headache Covid-19 panic has been very short-lived, thanks to an enormous support offered by central banks. However, such an action is unlikely now. As conflict is inflationary and has a bigger impact on supply and logistics rather than demand, inflation becomes an even bigger problem for major central banks. On the other hand, quick tightening monetary policy would only magnify market turmoil. In our opinion, major central banks will continue with announced policy tightening. Risk of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March dropped but a 25 bp rate hike looks like a done deal. What's next? A key question for global markets now is - how much will the conflict escalate? An answer to this question will be a key to calming the markets. Once it is answered, calculations of impact on sanctions and speculations over changes in economic policy will begin.

Russia is attacking Ukraine on multiple fronts, including in Kyiv. A collapse of the Ukrainian government could allow Putin to order a retreat. The West's sanctions may keep oil prices bid, but markets could recover from the current downfall.The Russian army is accelerating its offense in Ukraine – and undoubtedly moving faster than Western diplomats, scrambling to agree on sanctions. Markets have woken up to a dark day of war and have reacted rapidly. However, a quick end to major hostilities could trigger a relief rally. At least a partial one.Reports from Kyiv show various plumes of smoke from inside and outside the city and Russian helicopters coming from Belarus. The conflict is far more than a "peacekeeping mission" in Ukraine's east.Events are moving fast and there is massive disinformation at times of war. Ukraine declared martial law and seems determined to fight back and halt the advance of Russian troops – but it could be beyond them. Some 190,000 troops – some rebels and mostly Russians – are on the move, attacking Ukraine on various fronts. Russian President Vladimir Putin's aim is to bring about the collapse of the government in Kyiv, which leans toward NATO and the EU. Overwhelmed by Russian firepower, cyberattacks, and propaganda, leaders in Ukraine could capitulate – at least to prevent further bloodshed. If Putin manages to defenestrate the Ukrainian government and install his puppets, he could announce "Mission Accomplished" and move some of the troops back home. While a long-term insurgency would follow, the world could move away from focusing on the conflict. If sanctions remain tame and threats on NATO countries subside, there could be a relief rally. Stocks and risk currencies would have room to rise, while gold – which has benefited from speculation and exuberance – would fall. The safe-haven yen, which is more sensitive to geopolitics than to other worries, would retreat. Oil would depend on European sanctions – would the West disconnect from Russia? In that case, petrol prices would surge. However, if energy is excluded, there is room for a gradual decline.

Today we’re starting to watch what could be a developing reversal pattern on the NDX100 D1 chart. I’m sure we’re all aware of the disaster that the markets faced yesterday. The script went to que as we watched stock indexes plunge after news that Russia had invaded Ukraine hit the markets. This continued what had been a long sharp downtrend on the NDX100 and other major stock indexes. But what a lot of us may not have seen coming was a risk recovery late in the US session. Not only did stock indexes reverse losses but other risk markets followed and safe havens plunged, refer to gold. Why did we see the change in momentum? Could markets have simply reached a value point and shaken off the news? Could news of Russia offering to sit down and talk with Ukrain spurred buyer interest? Regardless of the reason it happened, now we are looking at levels and patterns being formed to start trying to form some opinion of the current picture. Firstly, we can see that the low stopped in a demand area and for now price closed firmly above the test. Another pattern we are starting to watch is in early development but has started to show some shape. That pattern is an inverse head and shoulders and these can be reversal patterns. Yes, we have the first shoulder and a head but we still need a second shoulder and a break of a neckline to fully confirm a completed pattern. It’s definitely something to keep in mind but as mentioned it’s still a fair way off. For now, we want to see buyers continue to post gains to show control, traders still need to keep the macro situation in mind as any escalations could resume the selling. NDX100 D1 Chart The post Market Update: NDX100 posts surprise rally reversal pattern starting to form? appeared first on Eightcap.

Bitcoin price drops 7% on geopolitical news but is close to offering a nice entry-level. Ethereum price deteriorates 10% for the day and still has 7% to go before some solid support is present. XRP price sees early price bounce-off but might be too soon as better entry levels are present further down the line. Cryptocurrencies are waking up to a shocker this morning as the whole Eastern border of Ukraine is under siege of missile attacks by Russia and Belarus. This afternoon, NATO and the EU are scrambling for emergency meetings to further retaliate with sanctions cutting off Russia entirely from the financial system. In the meantime, investors are hoarding cash and pulling out their money into safe havens, but in the process, offering some lovely entry levels for the longer term. Bitcoin price breaks below $36,709 and looks to test support at $32,650, below $33,000 The Bitcoin (BTC) price got slaughtered this morning as the Russian offensive started in early trading hours, shedding 7% of its market value. As it is looking for support, it will be vital for market participants to await the right time to execute any trades. It is too late now for both bears and bulls to get in as markets will or could go either way, and both parties are better off waiting for the right entry-level. BTC price will favour bulls with an entry below the $34,000 key-level as above, for now, no actual entry points are offered. At $32,650, a solid entry-level is offered, going back to June 25. With this, BTC price would need to shed another 5% on top of the 7% it has already lost in early morning trading. Expect this to unfold once the US sessions kicks in and further deterioration of asset prices happens across the board. BTC/USD daily chart Should Putin step up military action, expect to see further deterioration of price action in several asset classes, certainly when civilian casualties are reported. Expect $32,650 to be breached and see BTC further deepen its losses towards $31,322. Following that, the famous distribution zone will have been entered, and short-term bulls and long-term investors will be buying up bits and pieces of the price action for a rebound once the situation stabilises. Ethereum bulls should open up their wallets as price action is set to offer some great entry points Ethereum (ETH) price is nearing some interesting levels as price action dips to the downside in an accelerated move as Russian troops are attacking several important cities in Ukraine. Whilst Europe tries to deal with the situation, more reports have come in of several critical Ukrainian military installations being fired upon by missiles and mortars. Putin proclaimed conducting a military surgical operation to demilitarise the country and succeed. ETH price gets under pressure as investors hoard cash and kick out any risky asset in the process, as Ethereum already lost 10% in early morning trading. Expect more downside to come towards $2,148, losing 18% of its value in the process. At the same time, this is an excellent window of opportunity for investors to buy ETH coins at a very lucrative discount once the situation stabilises. ETH/USD daily chart As this story develops further into the trading day, expect to see a deterioration of ETH price action towards $1,928 or even $1,688 – breaching $2,000, should more reports come in from Russian troops entering mainland Ukraine and taking over control of key cities. That would mean that ETH is set to lose another 17% to 25% in the process as the US session will be expected to deepen the loss intraday. In the meantime, Ethereum price action has entered a distribution zone, offering an excellent opportunity for investors to start building a stake in for any upside potential to come. XRP price is at risk of losing another 25% as first support is being tested Ripple's (XRP) price sees an initial bounce off the $0.6264 level this morning as Europe awakes to some severe military threats spilling over into global markets with risk assets being slashed across the board. XRP price action already shredded 10% at the time of writing and is seen bouncing off technically and recovering back to more moderate levels – but still holding heavy losses. As the situation further develops, expect cryptocurrencies to react instantly in both directions as more headlines and news hit the wires today. Expect $0.6264 not to withstand further selling pressure since the situation remains fragile. As possible combat headlines start to accelerate, expect to see another dip lower in XRP to $0.5852 or even $0.5231, adding another 6% to 16% of losses to the price action. With this, the Relative Strength Index will be diving deeply into oversold territory, making this area an excellent entry level for investors going long once the situation dies down and the market falls back to a more normal level. XRP/USD daily chart In the worst case, XRP could dip below $0.50 and tick $0.48 in the process, the lowest level since June 2021. Depending on the situation expect to see bulls either waiting and holding, or taking the bounce off the historic $0.48 level and the monthly S1 support level, which they may use as a point of entry for going long if the situation calms down in the near future.

After reaching the lows for the month, the first cryptocurrency received support from buyers, as was the case at the end of January. Of course, the growth dynamics were relatively modest, which indicates the caution of buyers. It is likely that these are long-term holders rather than short-term speculators, as markets generally remain wary. Interestingly, buying during the decline has become a key outline of the American session. After more than a 3% fall, US stock indices not only bounced back but also managed to show growth at the end of the day. This stimulated bitcoin to strengthen. A short-term surge of bullish sentiment could end quickly if risky assets resume their decline again. If the situation in Ukraine escalates even more, bitcoin may fall below $30,000 as investors leave for defensive assets. According to The New York Times, Russia is legalizing cryptocurrency to circumvent US sanctions. Otherwise, the country will not survive the growing sanctions pressure from Western countries. Bitcoin rose over the past day by 10.7% to $38,500, reducing the decline in 7 days to 5%. Ethereum jumped 12% but is still 10% lower than it was exactly a week ago. Other leading altcoins are moving almost in unison, adding about 10% in most cases. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, increased by 9.6% per day to $1.72 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index rose 0.3 points to 42.6%, due to a smaller strengthening of altcoins. The index of fear and greed of the crypto market has risen from 23 to 27, into the territory of fear.

Markets are trading with increased volatility and the price moves become unpredictable. Risks remain tilted to the downside, and price rallies may remain short-lived. The direct impact of the Ukrainian crisis to US equities could be limited, but the indirect impact, which is the rising energy prices could take a severe toll. This is why the war’s biggest threat to the American companies is inflation. The barrel of US crude traded above the $100 mark yesterday then eased back to around $96 as Joe Biden said the US will release its strategic oil reserves to ease the pressure at the pump. Also, there is increased possibility of a nuclear deal with Iran to unlock the Iranian oil potential - which would provide up to 800’000 barrels of additional supply per day. Bitcoin on the other hand gained on rumours that big Russian money could flow into the coin to avoid the US sanctions. Could it be? What would be the risks and implications of such a migration? Here is the link to the Bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl... Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 Ukraine update 1:44 Market update 2:30 Bitcoin: a safe haven for big Russian money? 5:47 Why US equities rallied & are gains sustainable? 7:50 Oil rallies past $100 and eases. What’s next? Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the continued decline in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures has decreased for five consecutive weeks and in thirteen out of the past fifteen weeks. The spec crude position has dropped by a total of -82,271 contracts over the past fifteen weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level of the past seven weeks. These declines in speculator sentiment has brought the current speculator strength score level into a bearish-extreme standing of just 2.4 percent where the strength score measures the current speculator standing compared to past three years where above 80 is bullish-extreme and below 20 is bearish-extreme. Despite the speculator weakness, crude oil prices have shot up on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with WTI crude touching slightly above $100 per barrel late this week. Joining WTI Crude Oil (-9,052 contracts) with falling speculator bets this week were Brent Crude Oil (-30 contracts) and Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) while Natural Gas (795 contracts), Gasoline (991 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (4,874 contracts) saw higher speculator positions on the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,058,132 29 339,041 2 -382,891 90 43,850 77 Gold 611,488 49 243,148 65 -269,722 35 26,574 40 Silver 163,745 29 30,302 53 -43,720 56 13,418 21 Copper 204,123 29 25,575 61 -34,754 36 9,179 78 Palladium 7,903 7 -1,429 13 1,118 83 311 63 Platinum 62,274 26 17,540 27 -22,887 76 5,347 37 Natural Gas 1,107,113 2 -130,629 39 95,974 61 34,655 67 Brent 215,908 52 -26,355 73 24,478 31 1,877 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 826,824 51 226,464 86 -196,755 20 -29,709 21 Corn 1,563,758 32 451,742 88 -410,962 13 -40,780 20 Coffee 252,688 24 67,791 98 -72,509 3 4,718 21 Sugar 857,376 8 75,246 52 -95,306 50 20,060 33 Wheat 379,308 23 -3,902 44 10,629 51 -6,727 69   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 339,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 348,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.5 36.1 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 54.7 2.8 – Net Position: 339,041 -382,891 43,850 – Gross Longs: 442,102 743,113 100,987 – Gross Shorts: 103,061 1,126,004 57,137 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 89.9 76.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.4 5.6 10.5   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,325 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.3 46.9 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 35.6 3.4 – Net Position: -26,355 24,478 1,877 – Gross Longs: 37,283 101,361 9,173 – Gross Shorts: 63,638 76,883 7,296 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.5 30.6 34.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.6 19.9 -23.2   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 795 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.9 43.8 5.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.6 35.1 2.3 – Net Position: -130,629 95,974 34,655 – Gross Longs: 241,913 484,856 60,026 – Gross Shorts: 372,542 388,882 25,371 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 61.1 66.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 0.3 18.3   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 50.1 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.0 69.3 3.3 – Net Position: 63,587 -74,709 11,122 – Gross Longs: 106,356 194,978 23,947 – Gross Shorts: 42,769 269,687 12,825 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.8 62.3 78.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -9.2 30.3   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,041 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 65.4 29.1 1.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 94.6 1.5 0.2 – Net Position: -12,167 11,468 699 – Gross Longs: 27,191 12,091 770 – Gross Shorts: 39,358 623 71 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 19.4 to 1 10.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.9 37.4 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 36.1 -36.8 5.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the sharp jump in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures has gained strongly for three consecutive weeks and by a total of +71,006 contracts over that time-frame. This week’s rise by +29,535 contracts marked the largest one-week gain of the past fifteen weeks and has brought the overall Gold speculator standing to the highest standing of the past fourteen weeks, dating back to November 16th. The Gold spot price rose sharply as well this week with a spike on Thursday (on the Russian invasion of Ukraine) that brought the spot price to the $1,976 price level before settling lower back below $1,900 as the week ended. Joining Gold (29,535 contracts) with rising speculator positions this week were Silver (6,746 contracts) and Platinum (7,408 contracts) while Copper (-5,117 contracts) and Palladium (-429 contracts) saw lower speculator bets on the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,058,132 29 339,041 2 -382,891 90 43,850 77 Gold 611,488 49 243,148 65 -269,722 35 26,574 40 Silver 163,745 29 30,302 53 -43,720 56 13,418 21 Copper 204,123 29 25,575 61 -34,754 36 9,179 78 Palladium 7,903 7 -1,429 13 1,118 83 311 63 Platinum 62,274 26 17,540 27 -22,887 76 5,347 37 Natural Gas 1,107,113 2 -130,629 39 95,974 61 34,655 67 Brent 215,908 52 -26,355 73 24,478 31 1,877 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 826,824 51 226,464 86 -196,755 20 -29,709 21 Corn 1,563,758 32 451,742 88 -410,962 13 -40,780 20 Coffee 252,688 24 67,791 98 -72,509 3 4,718 21 Sugar 857,376 8 75,246 52 -95,306 50 20,060 33 Wheat 379,308 23 -3,902 44 10,629 51 -6,727 69   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 243,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 213,613 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.3 21.2 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.5 65.3 3.7 – Net Position: 243,148 -269,722 26,574 – Gross Longs: 350,096 129,682 49,090 – Gross Shorts: 106,948 399,404 22,516 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.1 35.3 39.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.7 -13.6 3.5   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,556 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.9 34.0 16.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.4 60.7 8.0 – Net Position: 30,302 -43,720 13,418 – Gross Longs: 58,830 55,747 26,556 – Gross Shorts: 28,528 99,467 13,138 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.6 56.0 21.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.7 -6.2 21.0   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,692 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.7 37.9 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 54.9 5.6 – Net Position: 25,575 -34,754 9,179 – Gross Longs: 80,940 77,398 20,535 – Gross Shorts: 55,365 112,152 11,356 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.8 35.6 78.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -8.4 19.3   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,132 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.1 30.6 13.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.0 67.4 5.1 – Net Position: 17,540 -22,887 5,347 – Gross Longs: 32,462 19,079 8,495 – Gross Shorts: 14,922 41,966 3,148 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.1 76.3 36.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.8 -17.1 -4.4   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,000 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 50.0 18.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.8 35.9 14.3 – Net Position: -1,429 1,118 311 – Gross Longs: 2,030 3,953 1,444 – Gross Shorts: 3,459 2,835 1,133 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 13.4 83.0 63.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.9 -12.3 36.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further rise in bullish bets in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators raised their bullish bets for a third straight week this week and for the ninth time in the past ten weeks. Over this ten-week time-frame, Euro bets have gained by a total of +71,185 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 12th to a total of +59,306 net positions through this Tuesday the 22nd of February (please note that this is a couple days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine). Overall, the current Euro standing is at the most bullish level of the past thirty-two weeks, dating back to July 13th when the net position was at +59,713 contracts. Joining the Euro (11,725 contracts) with positive speculator changes this week were the yen (2,975 contracts), Brazil real (685 contracts), US Dollar Index (698 contracts), Australian dollar (2,614 contracts), Russian ruble (3,353 contracts) and the Mexican peso (7,851 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Swiss franc (-1,272 contracts), British pound sterling (-8,046 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,218 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,917 contracts) and Bitcoin (-68 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,922 78 36,084 88 -41,368 6 5,284 74 EUR 696,682 82 59,306 53 -98,050 48 38,744 39 GBP 188,443 31 -5,809 70 10,070 36 -4,261 47 JPY 194,169 51 -63,187 28 82,480 77 -19,293 8 CHF 47,339 24 -10,987 51 19,110 52 -8,123 39 CAD 140,305 24 9,253 57 -14,143 47 4,890 40 AUD 192,579 77 -84,080 7 96,072 91 -11,992 23 NZD 56,636 56 -11,551 52 13,908 52 -2,357 25 MXN 171,299 36 16,825 35 -21,038 64 4,213 61 RUB 38,673 34 19,517 60 -20,053 40 536 49 BRL 94,577 100 24,445 100 -27,081 0 2,636 97 Bitcoin 11,007 59 -283 91 -256 0 539 25   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,386 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.6 5.0 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.9 80.3 3.1 – Net Position: 36,084 -41,368 5,284 – Gross Longs: 43,726 2,742 6,969 – Gross Shorts: 7,642 44,110 1,685 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.7 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.0 5.9 74.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.1 4.6 -10.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 59,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 54.5 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.2 68.6 7.3 – Net Position: 59,306 -98,050 38,744 – Gross Longs: 214,195 379,583 89,334 – Gross Shorts: 154,889 477,633 50,590 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.2 48.0 38.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.4 -18.3 18.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,237 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.4 61.8 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.5 56.4 15.1 – Net Position: -5,809 10,070 -4,261 – Gross Longs: 42,249 116,372 24,154 – Gross Shorts: 48,058 106,302 28,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 35.6 46.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.8 -16.5 9.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,162 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.7 83.5 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.2 41.0 19.1 – Net Position: -63,187 82,480 -19,293 – Gross Longs: 10,976 162,044 17,881 – Gross Shorts: 74,163 79,564 37,174 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.1 77.2 8.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.4 -12.8 3.4   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 71.2 20.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.2 30.9 37.6 – Net Position: -10,987 19,110 -8,123 – Gross Longs: 3,785 33,718 9,691 – Gross Shorts: 14,772 14,608 17,814 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 52.3 39.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 4.0 -0.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,170 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.0 41.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 51.7 18.1 – Net Position: 9,253 -14,143 4,890 – Gross Longs: 47,661 58,345 30,327 – Gross Shorts: 38,408 72,488 25,437 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.6 47.3 39.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.1 -11.2 -1.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -84,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,694 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 81.7 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.7 31.9 15.8 – Net Position: -84,080 96,072 -11,992 – Gross Longs: 11,553 157,416 18,459 – Gross Shorts: 95,633 61,344 30,451 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.9 90.6 23.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.9 -5.6 0.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,333 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 62.6 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.0 38.1 8.8 – Net Position: -11,551 13,908 -2,357 – Gross Longs: 17,343 35,481 2,608 – Gross Shorts: 28,894 21,573 4,965 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 51.8 24.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 5.6 -7.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,974 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.5 53.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 65.3 1.7 – Net Position: 16,825 -21,038 4,213 – Gross Longs: 72,846 90,784 7,091 – Gross Shorts: 56,021 111,822 2,878 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 64.0 60.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -9.3 4.2   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 40.2 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 68.9 2.0 – Net Position: 24,445 -27,081 2,636 – Gross Longs: 51,990 38,039 4,541 – Gross Shorts: 27,545 65,120 1,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 46.6 -49.2 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,517 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,164 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.5 35.9 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.0 87.8 4.2 – Net Position: 19,517 -20,053 536 – Gross Longs: 22,625 13,895 2,152 – Gross Shorts: 3,108 33,948 1,616 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 39.6 49.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.4 -20.6 -25.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -68 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 2.9 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.8 5.3 7.3 – Net Position: -283 -256 539 – Gross Longs: 8,501 322 1,338 – Gross Shorts: 8,784 578 799 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.7 19.3 25.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.1 -6.1 -0.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Looking back, gold has been rising nearly US$225 since December 15th, 2021, and US$195 since 28th of January 2022. Especially the strong rally over the last four weeks caught many by surprise. But our price target of US$1,975 was hit exactly last Thursday, when all other markets plunged in anticipation of strong sanctions against Russia. Markets then strongly recovered on Friday on hopes of weak sanctions and a potential postponement of the rate hikes by the FED. Over the weekend, however, NATO and its partners announced SWIFT sanctions against Russia. Monday will therefore likely be another wild and volatile day in the markets. But “peak fear” has probably been reached last Thursday (at least for now). Give peace a chance ðŸ•Šï¸ÂðŸ‡·ðŸ‡ºðŸ•Šï¸ÂðŸ‡ºðŸ‡¦ðŸ•Šï¸Â Fundamentally, banning Russian banks from SWIFT payments will lead to Russia stop selling oil & natural gas. Russian oil represents about 9% of global output and there’s an energy shortage already. The result will be a global depression and more inflation at the same time. And that would be the best-case scenario, cause as quickly as things unfold, WWIII is no longer an unthinkable horror scenario. We can only hope that successful peace negotiations will take place as soon as possible. In these uncertain times, gold should remain supported. As geopolitical events unfold, another sharp spike higher is always possible. A direct transition back into the correction, which began in August 2020, is unlikely. It would rather take much more time (at least a few months), before gold could drift back towards significantly lower grounds. Our maximum downside remains at US$1,625 for the potential 8-year cycle low, due in 2023 or 2024. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2022. On its weekly chart, gold continues to be in an uptrend. The breakout above the downtrend line led to a sharp advance over the last two weeks. The stochastic oscillator still has a buy signal in place. And with the sharp reversal/pullback since reaching $1,975, gold did close the week right at its upper Bollinger Band (US$1,889). Since the upper Bollinger Band has been bent upwards, gold will now have more room to continue its rally to the upside over the coming two to four weeks. However, the stochastic oscillator is about to reach its overbought zone. Comparing its behavior to the last 16 months, we have to assume that gold will have a hard time nesting up in the overbought zone for long. Hence, corrective price action is on the horizon. Overall, the weekly chart is still bullish and points to another attack towards US$1,950 to US$1,975. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 27th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 27th, 2022. The daily chart captures the sharp rally as well as the reversal and bloodbath in the gold market over last two days. So far, gold has given back nearly 50% of the rally since January 28th (from US$1,780 up to US$1,975 and then down to US$1,878). The stochastic oscillator has lost its embedded status and momentum is bearish now. Should gold want to correct further towards the 61.8%-retracement ($1,854), it will likely also test the former resistance and breakout level around US$1,840 to US$1,845. Such a pullback towards US$1,840 to US$1,855 has certain probability, but would also offer a very interesting long entry again. Since the short-term timeframes like the 1- and 4-hour charts are getting oversold, gold alternatively might find support between US$1,870 and US$1,880 over the next few days already. To summarize, the daily chart is currently bearish and patience is needed. But Gold I swell supported and should find support either between US$1,840 to US$1,855 or US$1,870 and US$1,880. Afterwards it should start another leg up. Conclusion: Strong reversal should lead to another leg up Last week’s price action was certainly not for the faint of heart. A daily gain of over +4% is extremely rare in the gold market and was immediately undone upon COMEX opening. The sharp reversal does not look too good, but it does not yet mean the end of the rally. Expect some more downside or at least sideways consolidation. Usually, such a sharp rally does not collapse immediately. Hence, once the bulls have sorted themselves, we expect another rise above US$1,900 with a minimum price target of US$1,950. An overshot towards US$2,000 is still possible, but now a bit less likely. Once this next attack will have failed, we assume the start of a corrective wave down somewhere in spring, which could last well into early to midsummer. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 27th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Natural Gas, Oil, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

Looking at gold we can see price starting to form a range after a wild few days of trade. Since last Thursday when Russia invaded Ukraine we have seen some amazing moves on gold as traders looked to the metal as a hedge. Last Thursday’s surge up to 1974.48 capped off a well-developed rally that started back in January. As the crisis developed and then unfolded buyers piled into gold. But Thursday was a mixed bag as risk recovered and this shock sent gold back down to 1903, setting off a rather solid bull trap. Over the weekend tensions continued to develop on the Russian side and the word nuclear was mentioned. This set a strong gap to start the week as spot gold starting trading at 1916 today. Trade from the open hasn’t been confident and we’re still watching price slowly decline. This leads us to today’s chart. After today’s gap, we can see two clear areas of support and resistance after the dust of last week and this morning’s open. Tensions between Russia and the west and their invasion of Ukraine are going to continue as the key factor. Break and close above resistance we will look for further higher prices. Break below support, we could see a new move back to the second slower trendline. GOLD 4H The post CFD Update: Gold starting to lock up after a wild three days of trade appeared first on Eightcap.

While stocks saw some signs of recovery towards the end of last week with Asian, European and US markets recovering some of their losses following the invasion of Ukraine from Russia, stock prices could have a very difficult week ahead as tensions escalate and more sanctions continue to be announced. Over the weekend, the European union announced a variety of sanctions on Russia including limiting it’s access to EU airspace and prohibiting certain banks from utilizing the SWIFT banking system, a move which could have catastrophic effects on the russian economy and was by some considered to be on the most potentially effective deterrents. Investors are taking that into consideration and while the war for Ukraine rages on, this week is set to be one of the most volatile across markets with the prices of stocks and commodities being extremely susceptible to any kind of sanction and geopolitical instability. If the situation continues to escalate, risky assets like stocks and crypto currencies could be seeing another week of losses while investors continue to rush to safe havens like gold and the USD which benefited greatly last week from the shocking turn of events. Oil prices remain under pressure after Brent retreats from $100 While oil prices managed to decline as recent news emerged of potential talks between Russia and Ukraine to deescalate the situation after markets panicked following the invasion, the situation remains extremely uncertain. Brent is trading around the $95 area after pulling back from the multi-year high reached as supply concerns reached critical levels following the invasion of Ukraine which sparked a series of sanctions from western countries. Due to the fact that the Russian economy is so heavily reliant on its energy exports, much of which goes to Europe, those fears could persist throughout the week as a lack of resolution could only serve to further destabilize the situation. While there are potential alternatives available to European economies, many of them are costly and impractical for the time being and as it appears that at this point almost nothing is off the table, it could lead oil prices to retest those highs from 2014 and potentially even break past them.  

Bitcoin price is behaving very well this stormy Monday morning as global markets are under pressure from sanctions against Russia. BTC sees elevated interest as people in Russia dive into Bitcoin as an alternative method of payment. Expect this interest to add to more popularity for Bitcoin as long as the current sanctions are imposed on Russia and its ruble. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding it together all-in-all quite well as price action dipped lower over the weekend but is back up for the day as Bitcoin sees an uptick in demand at the start of the week. That demand comes from Russian people using Bitcoin as an alternative method of payment as the local currency has devalued considerably, and several sanctions are making it impossible to use FX alternatives. With this renewed interest, expect to see BTC price action rise towards $39,780, holding a 10% profit potential. Bitcoin regains the needed attention it deserves Over the weekend, price action got rejected to the downside and saw a 7% devaluation. Yet with the introduction of several sanctions onRussia, significant demand is being seen for Bitcoin as Russians seek alternative payment methods as their own currency has devalued sharply by 20% on Monday morning, and foreign currencies are forbidden as a form of payment. This is the perfect background for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies to get renewed positive attention. Several Russians will be opening a crypto wallet and buying into Bitcoin price action, which could propel price action towards $39,780 in the first phase.once Bitcoin becomes the standard form of payment in Russia, and as the Relative Strength Index still has plenty of room to go, expect to see a further move to the upside, hitting $41,756 in the near term. BTC/USD daily chart Depending on the current peace talks underway this afternoon between Russia and Ukraine, expect to see a possible dip back towards $38,073 or even $36,709 as the supportive baseline in these past few days. Should the situation deteriorate again and see renewed attacks – and even the use of Russian nuclear weapons – expect to see a sharp nosedive move towards $32,650, nearing the distribution zone from a few months ago. With that move, the Relative Strength Index will have entered the oversold area, however, suggesting an increased likelihood of an eventual recovery.

NASDAQ 100 is set to open sharply lower on Monday. Russia placing nuclear forces on high alert spooked markets. European gas prices continue to surge as stagflation beckons. Global financial markets remain on edge this morning as the Russia-Ukraine conflict looks to be in danger of spilling into a global threat. Over the weekend Russia placed its nuclear deterrent forces on high alert, while Germany pledged increased defense spending. Now further developments include Russia talking of placing nuclear missiles in Belarus and an apparent escalation of the rhetoric between global superpowers. Western governments have gone for tougher sanctions than many observers anticipated with the Russian Central Bank reserves being targetted as well as the global banking payment system SWIFT being closed to Russian banks. Russian ally Belarus held a referendum this morning that ditched its non-nuclear stance, paving the way for Russian nuclear missiles to be deployed there. NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Stock News All this has naturally seen risk assets collapse. European equity markets fell sharply this morning. At one stage the German Dax was down nearly 3% but has staged a slight recovery to lose 2.4% currently. However the European benchmark, the Eurostoxx 50, is down over 3.5% at the time of writing. Yields continue to fall as money flows into safe-haven assets. Gold and the dollar have naturally profited. The odds on rate hikes from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve have diminished as the threat of recession grows. Europe has the most to lose due to its dependence on Russian gas supplies. European natural gas futures (TTF) rose over 50% on Friday and have followed that up with a 12% gain on Monday. There is likely more to come here. NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Stock Forecast We do have a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI has not made matching new lows despite the NASDAQ 100 doing so. Usually, this is significant, but the RSI does remain in a strong downtrend in line with the NASDAQ. Thursday and Friday's rally was impressive, but even that failed to break the 9 and 21-day moving averages. Demonstrating this downtrend is powerful. The obvious target is a break of 4,300 and a test of the significant lows from March 2021 at $299.51. Nasdaq (QQQ) chart, daily For short-term traders, opening below $348 indicates we are on a bearish track and preparing for further declines. Last support at $338 could see a sharp decline to $328 based on the volume gap. Nasdaq (QQQ) chart, 15-minute

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has produced a climate of anxiety around global supply disruptions. Don’t expect it to abate just yet. After witnessing crude oil prices slipping on Friday (Feb. 25) – as some major players sold off their positions before the weekend, which was still marked by a context of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the current Ukraine-Russia conflict – lots of concerns remain over potential global supply disruptions from a strengtening set of sanctions on major crude exporting country Russia. The sanction that is likely to impact the Russian bear the most in the long term was taken by Taiwan in the weekend (under rising pressure from the West) to block the sales of electronic microchips to the Russian Federation. OPEC+ will meet this Wednesday (Mar. 2) during a surge in the two black gold benchmarks, with little hope, however, that their action will dissipate the feverishness of the energy markets. British oil giant BP’s shares fell by nearly 7% this morning on the London Stock Exchange, the day after the announcement of its divestiture from the Russian giant Rosneft, in which it held a 19.75% stake. Technically, the sturdiest support seems to be located around the $93.36-95.01 area for Brent and around the $89.54-90.45 area for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), as we recently saw some bulls entering long trades around those levels. We could see prices rebounding onto these support zones one more time as volatility stays high. Figure 1 - VIX "Fear Index" The VIX (aka “Fear Index”) – currently trading around 30 – could spike again depending on how the situation progresses. Regarding risk management, it is always best to define your strategy according to your own risk profile. For some guidance on trade management, please read this article on how to secure profits. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Rouble (RUB) weakens and Russians turn to Bitcoin (BTC) as a new means of payment as country had been detached from SWIFT. Energy stocks react to the conflict - BP and Shell end their partnerships and green energy stocks raise. Join Ipek Ozkardeskaya as she is speaking of Russia-Ukraine conflict consequences.

Bitcoin made a powerful leap up after assurances from the owners of the largest crypto exchanges, Binance, Kraken, KuCoin and AAX, that they do not intend to block the funds of individual Russians. However, the head of Kraken warned that they would abide by the regulator's decision if it comes.Overnight, the United States noted that they would stop attempts to use cryptocurrencies to circumvent personal sanctions. So, retail clients of large crypto exchanges are not yet afraid for their funds. This probably explains the latest growth momentum.Technically, Bitcoin broke through the upper limit of the four-month descending channel at the close of the month. Moderate optimism of Asian and US indices is also on the side of buyers.February was confirmed to be a growing month for bitcoin. However, March is not so favourable. Over the past 11 years, BTC ended this month with growth only in two cases.Disabling Russia from SWIFT will have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market, says Jiang Zhuer, CEO of the BTC.TOP pool. In his opinion, Russia can use various methods to circumvent restrictions, including digital assets, to make payments. Bank of America does not see the prerequisites for a large-scale crypto winter, as evidenced by the dynamics of the movement of cryptocurrencies between private and exchange wallets. The level of acceptance of crypto assets by users is also growing, as well as the activity of developers.Bitcoin jumped 10.8% on Monday to $41,600, the highest gain in five months. On Tuesday morning, the momentum continued with a jump to $44,000 at the start of the day. At the time of writing, prices have stabilized around $43,200. Ethereum added 7.9%, while other top-ten altcoins rose from 6.3% (XRP) to 15.3 % (Terra).The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 11% over the day, to $1.9 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 43% due to the smaller strengthening of altcoins.The crypto-currency fear and greed index soared 31 points to 51 on the day, moving out of fear into neutral territory.Although Bitcoin showed negative dynamics for most of the month, the shock growth at the end of it allowed BTC to end February with strengthening (+8.6%) after three months of decline.

USDCHF struggles for support The Swiss franc rallies as new sanctions against Russia trigger a flight to safety. The pair has met stiff resistance in the supply area (0.9290). Then a drop below 0.9220 and 0.9170 suggests that sentiment remains cautious and buyers are hesitant. 0.9150 is a key level to safeguard the greenback’s latest bounce. A bearish breakout could send the pair to the daily support at 0.9110. An oversold RSI may attract some buying interest. The bulls need to reclaim 0.9230 before they could hope for a turnaround. EURGBP attempts to rebound The euro struggles amid escalation in Western sanctions. A bullish attempt above 0.8400 indicates an upward bias as sellers cover their positions. 0.8310 has been solid support. And the market mood may become increasingly upbeat if buyers succeed in holding above this level. An extended rally may send the single currency to the daily resistance at 0.8475, where a breakout may cause a bullish reversal in the weeks to come. On the downside, a fall below the said demand zone may send the euro to 0.8260. US 100 to test key resistance The Nasdaq 100 bounces as Russia and Ukraine meet for peace talks. The index saw bids near last May’s lows (13050), an important floor to prevent further bleeding. A rebound above 14050 has prompted some sellers to take profit, easing the downward pressure for the moment. Price action is heading to the next resistance at 14500 which sits on the 30-day moving average, and high volume could be expected in this area of interest. A bullish breakout could boost sentiment in the short term and extend gains to 15280.

The main question that ruble traders ask themselves is whether the Central Bank managed to prevent a collapse in the exchange rate? At the moment, the euro is officially worth 104.4, and the dollar is 93.5.According to a leading analyst at FxPro, the ruble is recovering from the second shock wave that hit on Monday, when the Central Bank was unable to use foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate. The dollar and the euro declined somewhat, but these levels still can hardly be called sustainable. An increase in the interest rate has a relatively long-term effect, while a liquidity crisis affects quotes "here and now".A steady reversal to growth in the Russian currency should be expected no earlier than when we receive reliable signals from the EU and the US. Until then, downward impulses may alternate with relatively short pullback periods. In our opinion, some stabilization of the exchange rate may occur in the range of 100-110 since this is a low enough level for traders to start picking up the ruble in the short term. Of course, this is only if we exclude the scenario of further tightening of sanctions.There is another issue that worries the consumers who are now in Russia. We are talking, among other things, about foreign citizens who came to Russia to do business or for personal reasons. Many of them have free balances in the region of 100 thousand rubbles in their bank accounts. As a rule, businesspeople short-term invest capital or acquire their own currency. The question arises of what to do with this capital now.In our opinion, it is better to save free money for force majeure, since in the current circumstances, it is worth increasing the capital and abandoning all unplanned purchases. If you are in Russia, then it is better to keep your savings in rubbles since it is not profitable to buy currency in banks now, as the exchange rate difference is too large.Of course, in the coming weeks and months, equipment, and all imported goods in the territory of the Russian Federation will rise in price significantly. At the same time, the value of cash soon may manifest itself more than ever. This is confirmed by queues at ATMs and multiple increases in cash in the hands of Russians.Many right now are looking towards buying a new car from a showroom with the prospect of selling it in a few months at a higher price (considering the sanctions).If your capital is even larger, it perhaps remains only to wait since the withdrawal to foreign accounts is limited. Thus, Russian residents will not be able to credit foreign currency to their accounts and deposits in foreign banks and brokers. The ban takes effect today.

  Russia underestimated Ukraine’s fierce defense. Instead of quick conquest, the war is still going on. The same applies to pulling the rope between gold bulls and bears. It was supposed to be a blitzkrieg. The plan was simple: within 72 hours Russian troops were to take control of Kyiv, stage a coup, overthrow the democratically elected Ukrainian authorities, and install a pro-Russian puppet government. Well, the blitzkrieg clearly failed. The war has been going on for five days already, and Kyiv (and other major cities) remains in Ukrainian hands, while the Russians suffer great losses. Indeed, the Ukrainians are fighting valiantly. The Kremlin apparently did not expect such high morale among the troops and civilians, as well as such excellent organization and preparation. Meanwhile, the morale among Russian soldiers is reported to be pathetically low, as they have no motivation to fight with culturally close Ukrainians (many of whom speak perfect Russian). The invaders are also poorly equipped, and the whole operation was logistically unprepared (as the assumption was a quick capitulation by Ukrainian forces and a speedy collapse of the government in Kyiv). Well, pride comes before a fall. What’s more, the West is united as never before (Germany did a historic U-turn in its foreign and energy policies) and has already imposed relatively heavy economic sanctions on Russia (including cutting off some of the country’s banks from SWIFT), and donated weapons to Ukraine. However – and unfortunately – the war is far from being ended. Military analysts expect a second wave of Russian troops that can break the resistance of the Ukrainians, who have fewer forces and cannot relieve the soldiers just like the other side. Indeed, satellite pictures show a large convoy of Russian forces near Kyiv. Russia is also gathering troops in Belarus and – sadly – started shelling residential quarters in Ukrainian cities. According to US intelligence, Belarusian soldiers could join Russian forces. The coming days will be crucial for the fate of the conflict.   Implications for Gold What does the war between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, initially, the conflict was supportive of gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London Fix) soared to $1,936 on Thursday. However, the rally was very short-lived, as the very next day, gold prices fell to $1,885. Thus, gold’s performance looked like “buy the rumor, sell the news.” However, yesterday, the price of the yellow metal returned above $1,900, so some geopolitical risk premium may still be present in the gold market. Anyway, it seems that I was right in urging investors to focus on fundamentals and to not make long-term investments merely based on geopolitical risks, the impact of which is often only temporary. Having said that, gold may continue its bullish trend, at least for a while. After all, the war not only increases risk aversion, but it also improves gold’s fundamental outlook. First of all, the Fed is now less likely to raise the federal funds rate in March. It will probably still tighten its monetary policy, but in a less aggressive way. For example, the market odds of a 50-basis point hike decreased from 41.4% one week ago to 12.4% now. What’s more, we are observing increasing energy prices, which could increase inflation further. The combination of higher inflation and a less hawkish Fed should be fundamentally positive for gold prices, as it implies low real interest rates. On the other hand, gold may find itself under downward pressure from selling reserves to raise liquidity. I'm referring to the fact that the West has cut Russia off from the SWIFT system in part. In such a situation, Russia would have to sell part of its massive gold reserves, which could exert downward pressure on prices. Hence, the upcoming days may be quite volatile for the gold market. At the end of my article, I would like to point out that although the war in Ukraine entails implications for the precious metals market, it is mostly a humanitarian tragedy. My thoughts and prayers are with all the casualties of the conflict and their families. I hope that Ukraine will withstand the invasion and peace will return soon! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

WTI has surged above $101 to hit its highest in over seven years, with analysts eyeing the 2014 highs near $107.50. The rally is being driven by concerns of supply disruptions as Western sanctions against Russia start to bite. For now, this has outweighed chatter about coordinated oil reserve releases. Oil prices have surged this Tuesday as concerns grow about supply disruptions as Western sanctions against Russia, who are currently in the process of invading Ukraine, start to bite, outweighing chatter about coordinated oil reserve releases. Front-month WTI futures have surged to their highest levels since July 2014 above $101 per barrel, with the bulls eyeing a test of the next key area of resistance in the $107.50 area, which marks the 2014 highs. That translates into on-the-day gains of more than $5.0 and takes WTI’s two-day rally to over $9.0. A senior analyst at Rystad Energy wrote that “the fragile situation in Ukraine and financial and energy sanctions against Russia will keep the energy crisis stoked and oil well above $100 per barrel in the near-term and even higher if the conflict escalates further”. The US and EU have not imposed direct sanctions on Russian energy companies or on energy exports, but various reports in financial press point to growing difficulties in conducting trade of these goods. Banks have been pulling financing and shipping costs have surged, while major Western-based energy companies are looking to exit their stakes in Russian operations. Russia exports between 4-5M barrels of crude oil per day, plus a further 2-3M barrels of refined products each day, making the country one of the world’s most important energy exports. Major US banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan have all upped their oil forecasts to reflect concerns about supply disruptions, with some analysts warning of oil hitting $150. Press reports suggest that a coordinated crude oil reserve release by the US and its allies could amount to between 60-70M barrels and such a move is currently under discussion at an extraordinary ministerial meeting of the Internation Energy Agency. Confirmation that nations agreed on the release might trigger some profit-taking in crude oil later in the session, analysts suggested, but shouldn’t shift the underlying bullish dynamic. With fresh sources suggesting OPEC+ is going to stick to its current output policy of increasing quotas by 400K barrels per day/month in April, despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, hopes of near-term supply relief from OPEC+ remain non-existent.

  The S&P 500 went sideways yesterday, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. Will the short-term uptrend resume? The broad stock market index lost 0.24% on Monday, after gaining 2.2% on Friday and 1.5% on Thursday. The sentiment improved following the Thursday’s rebound, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty following the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. On Thursday, the broad stock market reached the low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. And yesterday it went closer to the 4,400 level. For now, it looks like an upward correction. However, it may also be a more meaningful reversal following a deep 15% correction from the early January record high. The market sharply reversed its short-term downtrend, but will it continue the advance? This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower and we may see some more volatility. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,400 and the next resistance level is at 4,450-4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350, among others. The S&P 500 index broke slightly above the downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Remains Above the 4,300 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Thursday it sold off after breaking below the 4,200 level. Since Friday it is trading along the 4,300 mark. We are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index fluctuated following the recent rally yesterday. This morning it is expected to open 0.2% lower and we may see some further volatility. Obviously, the markets will continue to react to the Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index bounced from the new low on Thursday after falling almost 15% from the early January record high. We are maintaining our speculative long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

In the middle of Tuesday, the first cryptocurrency was approaching $45K, but then fell slightly during the American session along with stock indices. BTC showed resilience despite the decline in other risky assets and the growth of the dollar. World markets were declining following the banking sector, which felt the severity of Russia's partial disconnection from Swift (by 80%). However, this situation does little harm to the demand for cryptocurrencies. On the Binance exchange, the volume of trading in ruble pairs with BTC and USDT has increased significantly. Crypto funds recorded $36 million in net asset inflows during the week, up from $239 million over the past five weeks, according to CoinShares. Institutions are also looking for alternative vehicles amid mounting military tensions and government capital controls. According to Glassnode, crypto whales have been aggressively buying bitcoin over the past few weeks, which could signal a local bottom has been reached. The last time such a situation was observed was in May last year, when, after a two-month consolidation, the market resumed growth at the end of July. Technically, Bitcoin started March with growth. Thus, BTC has risen in price by 1.9% over the day to $44,100. Ethereum has grown by 2.5%, approaching $3,000. Other leading altcoins from the top ten add with maximum momentum such as Solana (+6.7%) and Terra (+5.2%) The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 2% over the day, to $1.94 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index is hovering around 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added another point to 52 moving into neutral territory.

XAUUSD grinds rising trendline Gold recovered after the first round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia ended without a resolution. The precious metal found support over 1885. The rising trendline from early February indicates that the general direction is still up despite a choppy path. The previous peak at 1974 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could send the price to the psychological level of 2000. The downside risk is a fall below the said support. Then 1852, near the 30-day moving average, would be the bulls’ second line of defense. AUDUSD attempts reversal The Australian dollar steadied after the RBA warned that energy prices could flare up inflation. A break above the previous high (0.7285) shows buyers’ strong commitment despite sharp liquidation. Sentiment swiftly recovered and may attract more buying interest. An overbought RSI may temporarily limit the upside. And the bulls could be waiting for a pullback to accumulate. 0.7220 is the closest support. A bullish close above the January peak at 0.7310 could initiate a reversal in the medium-term and extend gains towards 0.7400. CADJPY bounces back The Canadian dollar clawed back losses after the Q4 GDP beat expectations. A jump above 90.70 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, opening the door for a potential reversal. 91.10 is the next resistance and its breach could propel the loonie to this year’s high at 92.00. On the downside, the psychological level of 90.00 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. Otherwise, a drop to 89.30 would suggest that sentiment remains fragile. In turn, this would place the pair under pressure once again.

Brent crude prices have jumped 13% since the start of the week, trading above $110 a barrel at the time of writing. These are the highest levels since July 2014. Meanwhile, the ruble continues to retreat against the dollar and euro.  USDRUB is now trading at 106.40 (+5.5%) on the Moscow Exchange, and EURRUB is above 118 (+5%). In both cases, rates are approaching the highs set at the start of trading on Monday. As would be expected, the announced support measures from the Central Bank are softening the fall but not reversing it. The one-way movement in oil prices is since buyers in Europe are increasingly refusing to buy Russian oil, trying to find a replacement for it.  This shift in priorities is visible in the sharp widening of the spread between Urals and Brent. Historically, and without various restrictions, the spread between these grades is $2-3 in favour of the lighter Brent. Now it is more than $17 as buyers are not chartering new shipments. Canada is refusing to buy Russian oil, and the UK (which is much more dependent on energy imports) is considering options for sanctions against the industry.  The European Parliament has passed a resolution calling for EU oil and gas imports restrictions. Thus, Russia has failed to fully benefit from higher prices, losing both in sales volumes and facing an actual fall in selling prices.  The potential for already announced measures destabilises the market, setting Russia up to start using energy or agricultural products as a retaliatory measure. While it is hard to imagine the world without Russian energy in the coming months - it will be as chaotic as the oil crisis in 1973, with the oil price soaring fourfold in six months of the embargo. We may see a smaller price jump but with much wider economic consequences. It is ironic that Europe and Western countries, in general, were helped by the Soviet Union. Now consumers are left to rely on the Middle East and its reserves.  Yesterday, Biden announced an agreed sale of 60m barrels to 30 countries. Still, the market reaction to these announcements indicates that the market was expecting more, and the announced volumes are not enough. It is hard to say the theoretical limit to oil's rise. The Brent price could surpass the 2012 highs of $128 in a matter of days or aim for a historical record of $147.

Today we’re taking a look at oil from a longer-term view after price briefly tested $111. We all know the driver for this month’s surge in the price of oil. Our question as price has started to move back to levels not seen since 2011 is how much further does it have to go? We have to start looking at the conflict in Europe and think has it started to be factored into price? Obviously today that answer could be no as we’ve seen over 11% added to USOUSD (WTI) this week. The reasons for this rally are not exactly like what we saw drive price in 2008. Yes, supply disruptions drove price and supply disruptions are a factor here, but this time it’s centred around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What happens if the two nations form a peace agreement or on a darker note what happens if Russia escalates the situation? De-escalation we would be looking for price to fall but on escalation, you would think that the rally would continue. Price-wise oil has reached heavy resistance formed back in 2011-2013. The ending diagonal that formed in this resistance actually sunk the last rally above $100. Price looks overextended at this point but the drivers of the rally can’t be discounted. We are looking to see if buyers can break and hold above $112 – $115. A hold above these points could start to set up a new shift in pricing. It could also set off further inflation worries and start to develop global growth worries which could alter current central bank plans. In the levels discussed we see solid supply. It will be a firm statement if buyers can get comfortable back above those levels. From there if dynamics stay supportive, anything could be possible. Traders will need to keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions to see if the drivers continue to feed demand. If things change and price fails to break $112-$115 we could see a fast pullback. The $80 area could be the first port of support. Oil Monthly Chart Chart source, Net Dania Finance chart Uncertainty presents volatility Currently, our margin levels remain unchanged across all instruments and we offer one of the best swap conditions on key instruments such as Gold. Make the most out of market movements right now with Eightcap. For more information on market updates and our swap rates, please contact our award-winning customer service team. The post CFD Update: Oil set to retest 2011 highs? appeared first on Eightcap.

US indices are set to start today’s session lower as the conflict in Ukraine threatens supply chains and drives commodity prices higher. During yesterday’s trading session, the S&P 500 dropped 1.55%, Dow Jones moved 1.76% lower and Nasdaq declined 1.59% while the Russell 2000 dropped 1.93%. Intense shelling of Kharkiv was reported overnight and Russian attacks on residential areas and civilian buildings are becoming more frequent while the west continues to evaluate an escalation of sanctions, some of which have led to Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, informing that it will be shutting its European market business as it is no longer able to supply liquidity to its units in Europe. Despite some important data expected from the US, including the ADP employment report as well as the FED chair Powell testifying in congress, investors remain focused on further headlines and developments from the ongoing conflict in eastern europe which is sending shockwaves across markets. While negotiations are set to continue between the opposing forces, it remains to be seen if these will manage to and provide some relief Oil prices reach record levels despite strategic petroleum reserve releaseConcerns over possible disruptions on the oil market are sending Brent prices to the sky as WTI reached the highest level since 2013. Brent OIL is trading almost 60% year-to-date higher and it may not be over as the geopolitical tensions escalate and more companies continue to exit their shares in Russian energy companies with some of the most notable being BP and Shell. The release of strategic petroleum reserve release did little to ease upward pressure and OPEC+ is unlikely to decide on a bigger than 400,000 barrel hike today while traders also await the EIA petroleum report from the US, which is set to show an increase of 2.8 MB, after yesterday's API report indicated a 6.1 MB inventory draw. Unless the geopolitical situation begins to ease, or there are some major developments which would allow a noticeable increase in supply to reach the markets from elsewhere, we could be seeing a continuation of this trend that will ultimately have cascading effects across most asset classes and on consumer prices which are all related to energy prices.

The energy market is very sensitive to fluctuations in supply and demand. For example, a 20% drop in demand in March-May 2020 took away 70% of the oil price at some point. Next, we saw the inverse relationship: a moderate production deficit (even with significant reserves in previous months) was enough to send oil prices to 8-year highs. The same applies to exchange prices for gas. At some point last year, they were approaching $2000 per 1,000 cubic meters, quickly falling back to 800. Today, its value exceeds $2200, and this is hardly the limit. With such sensitive energy prices, it is difficult to imagine a reliable model of how much prices can rise at a critical moment because Russia provides about 20% of oil supplies and 30% of gas to Europe. If we see a political decision (by the EU & US or Russia) or a business decision (if foreign partners refuse to buy energy from Russian companies due to the threat of sanctions), then we may see a complete cessation of oil and gas purchases and prices may repeatedly skyrocket, as was the case in 1973 with the OPEC oil embargo. However, under these conditions, a grey market will emerge, as in the case of Iran, which sold its oil at a deep discount to Asia, mostly to China. It is more likely that the West is set to phase out Russian energy, indirectly holding back investment in the industry and blocking access to technology. As a result, this will lead to a reduction in the share of the Russian Federation on the world stage. The current situation is accelerating long-term plans to redirect energy exports from Europe to China. However, these are projects that will begin to pay dividends only in a few years. Here and now, politics could turn into a price shock on a much larger scale than we have seen in the last 30 years. The scale of the current state of affairs is comparable to that of the 1970s.

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 698 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,377 contracts and an increase in short positions by 679 contracts. The increase in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. The decline in total net positions occurred in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.  Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. From a currency perspective, this means that the euro, pound, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar could weaken. However, the situation is changing very quickly depending on various political statements. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish         Total change 14389 9834 -43467 53301     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 59 306 contracts last week, up by 11 725 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,704 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 15,429 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 53,301 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to the fact that large speculators ended 43,467 short positions and addded 9,834 long positions.  This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest, which fell by 5,465 contracts in the past week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and therefore it was a weak decline as there were fewer bearish traders in the market.  The euro weakened strongly last week under the influence of the war in Ukraine and reached strong support at 1.1120. Long-term resistance: 1.1280 – 1.1300. Next resistance is near 1.1370 – 1.1400. Support: 1.1100-1.1140   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish         Total Change -12050 11743 -11614 23357     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 5,809 contracts, down by 8,046 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,902 contracts and an increase in short positions by 144 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 23,357 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 11,614 short positions and adding 11,743 long positions. The decline in total net positions of large speculators into negative territory indicates bearish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 6,859 contracts last week, indicates that the decline in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by volume and was therefore weak. The pound, just as the euro, might be negatively impacted by risk-off sentiment which could then send the pound towards support which is at 1.3300 or possibly 1.3200. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640.  Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3270 – 1.3300 and then mainly in the zone 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish         Total Change 7126 -830 -8236 7406     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -84,080 contracts, up 2,614 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 139 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,753 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of the bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 7,406 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 8,236 short contracts while exiting 830 long contracts. However, there was an increase in open interest of 1 contract last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. In the event of geopolitical instability, it can usually be expected to weaken especially in the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. However, last week the Australian dollar surprisingly strengthened and approached the resistance band. Long-term resistance: 0.7270-0.7310                                                                                                            Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish         Total Change 14570 6383 9330 -2947     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 11,551 contracts, having fallen by 2,218 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,580 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 7,580 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment on the NZ dollar continues. Total net positions have declined by 2,947 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 9,330 short positions and adding 6,383 long positions. Last week, open interest fell significantly by 7,469 contracts. Therefore, the upward movement in NZDUSD that occurred last week is not supported by volume and therefore the move was weak. The strengthening of the NZDUSD that occurred last week is somewhat surprising given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. This upward movement is forming a channel pattern, which may be a correction in the current downtrend trend that we can see on the daily or weekly chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6890 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

Bitcoin slowed down ahead of strong mid-February resistance at $45,000, which then turned the move down. The first cryptocurrency in recent days has not paid too much attention to stock indices, which rose on Wednesday. The technical picture continues to point to a break in the downtrend, although to confirm the reversal, the rate must first fix above 45K. It must be said that bitcoin trading volumes have increased markedly in the last week due to the events in Ukraine. On February 28th, immediately after the Bank of Russia asset freeze, BTC jumped by 11%, showing the highest growth in many months. Due to new sanctions, the Russians withdrew depreciating ruble assets and invested them in cryptocurrencies. In the EU, it was previously discussed that since Bitcoin and Ethereum use the Proof-of-Work consensus mechanism, which consumes a lot of electricity and has a negative impact on the environment, it's time to ban the mining of these cryptocurrencies. However, it was decided to abandon this idea following the new version of the bill on digital assets. Technically, Bitcoin slowed down on Wednesday after two days of active strengthening, and on Thursday morning, it rolled back to 43.1K, losing 2.2% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum is down 3.3% 0.6% in the same period. Leading altcoins from the top ten lose from 1% (Terra, XRP) to more than 5% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 2.5% to $1.09 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index is hovering around 43.1%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell 13 points to 29, once again ending up in the fear zone.

March 03, 2022  $USD, Australia, Bank of Canada, China, Currency Movement, Hungary, Japan, Mexico, PMI, Turkey Overview: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the global response is a game-changer, as Fed Chair Powell told Congress yesterday.  The UK-based research group NISER estimated that world output will be cut by 1% next year or $1 trillion, and global inflation will be boosted by three percentage points this year and two next.  The recovery in US stocks yesterday may have helped lift Asia Pacific shares today (China and India are notable exceptions). However, Europe's Stoxx 600 is softer as are US futures.  The 10-year US Treasury is hovering around 1.86%, while European yields are mostly 3-6 bp higher.  The US dollar remains strong. The Canadian and Australian dollars have been among the most resilient.  CAD traded at its best level since late January but is now consolidating those gains in the aftermath of yesterday's 25 bp rate hike and the risk-on move.  The Australian dollar is at its best level since mid-November.  Major European currencies, except the Swiss franc, and emerging market currencies are bearing the brunt.  Even the Hungarian forint is finding little traction after the central bank hiked the one-week deposit rate by 75 bp instead of the 50 bp that were expected.  Gold is in a narrow $13 range mostly below $1935.  Last week's peak near $1975 has not been approached and this week's high is around $1950.  April WTI poked briefly above $116.50 a barrel and is still firm.  US natgas prices are up another 1.5% after climbing 8% in the past two sessions. Europe's natgas benchmark has reversed early gains and is off about 7.5% after jumping more than 65% over the past two sessions.  Industrial metals, from iron ore, copper to zinc and aluminum are extending their rallies. May wheat prices are up 4.5% to bring this week's gain to around 25%.   Asia Pacific China's Caixin service PMI was stronger than expected but still falling to 50.7 from 51.4.  The composite was unchanged at 50.1, suggesting little momentum.  Reserves and trade are due next, followed by CPI next week.  Both PPI and CPI are expected to have slowed.  Japan's final PMI service and composite readings were revised up but remain in contraction territory and more pronounced than in January.  The service PMI stands at 44.2 rather than 42.7 of the flash report and 47.6 in January.  The composite fell to 45.8, not 44.6, from 49.9. The report underscores the challenge to the world's third-largest economy this quarter. However, it appears to be largely a result of Covid and the social restrictions.  This could set the stage for a recovery in Q2.  Australia's final service and composite PMI were revised higher, and the January trade surplus was much larger than expected.  The final service PMI stands at 57.4, up from 56.4 of the preliminary estimate and 46.6 in January.  The composite PMI is at 56.6.  The flash reading put it at 55.9 after January's 46.7 final report.  The January trade surplus swelled to A$12.9 bln from A$8.8 bln in December.  The January surplus was about a third larger than the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey, helped by an 8% rise in exports in the month, while imports fell by 2%.  The one disappointing report today from down under, came from the January building approvals, which tanked by almost 28%.  Economists (Bloomberg survey) saw a 3% decline.  The dollar is trading near two-week highs against the yen around JPY115.80.  The JPY116.00 area offers initial resistance and a $450 mln option expires there today.  The high seen in January and retested in February was JPY116.35.  Support is now pegged in the JPY115.35-JPY115.50 area.  The Australian dollar has risen to its best level, almost $0.7325, since mid-November.  The 200-day moving average comes in today near there and it last was tested late last October.  It has not closed above it since last June.  Note that the (61.8%) retracement of its losses since that October high is near $0.7330.  The Chinese yuan has been confined to yesterday's range (~CNY6.3110-CNY6.3225).  The PBOC fixed the dollar at CNY6.3016, while expectations (Bloomberg survey) were for CNY6.2997.  The PBOC has not set the dollar's reference rate below CNY6.30.  Note that Chinese bond futures fell to their lowest level in nearly four months as some have second thoughts about the aggressiveness of the expected easing.  Europe The financial choke hold on Russia continues to tighten.  MSCI and FTSE are dropping Russian stocks, which are untradable given the sanctions.  Moody's and Fitch slashed Russia's rating to junk.  Some oligarch's assets have been confiscated.  The number refugees fleeing Ukraine is approaching a million.  Reports suggest that the US held off a scheduled ICBM test to avoid any possible misinterpretation.   The German and French flash service and composite PMIs were revised lower in the final estimate, while Italy, and especially Span, surprised on the upside.  Of note Italy and Spain's service PMI recovered back above the 50 boom/bust level that had been violated in January.  The aggregate service PMI rose to 55.5 from January's 51.1, a little below the flash estimate of 55.8.  The composite PMI is also at 55.5, not the 55.8 of the preliminary estimate, and better than the 52.3 seen in January.   The UK follows the similar pattern seen in Germany and France.  The flash PMI was revised lower, but the final reading still was an improvement from January.  The UK service PMI stands at 60.5, not 60.8, after January's 54.1.  The composite PMI is at 59.9.  The flash reading put at 60.2 after January's 54.2.  Turkey's CPI accelerated to 54.44% from a year ago, up from 48.69% in January.  The month-over-month increase was 4.81%.  The median in Bloomberg's survey called for a 3.75% increase.  The core rose to 44.05% from 39.45%.  Producer prices jumped another 7.22% in the month of February after a 10.45% increase in January.  The year-over-year pace accelerated to 105.01% from 93.53%.   Elsewhere, we note that Hungary's central bank hiked the key one-week deposit rate to 5.35% from 4.60%.  A 50 bp hike was expected and a 75 bp move was delivered.  It is the largest move since the one-week deposit rate as activated for policy purposes in Q4 21.  The euro is spending more time below $1.11.  The session high has been slightly above $1.1120.  Yesterday's high was a little below $1.1150.  Today is the eighth consecutive session that the euro is setting lower highs. Yesterday it has briefly dipped below $1.1060.  Today's low so far has been just above $1.1070. There is an option for almost 900 mln euros at $1.11 that expires tomorrow.  Sterling has fared better than the euro but seems range-bound between $1.3270 and $1.3440.  Late in the European morning, it is trading around $1.3380. Two BOE officials have been quoted on the news wires. Deputy Governor Cunliffe warned of downside risks to growth while Tenreyro noted the upward risks to inflation.  The intraday momentum indicator favors a test on the highs.   America Fed Chair Powell testifies in the Senate today.  His prepared remarks are the same, even if the questions are different.  Still, the Chair got good reviews from yesterday's measured comments and clear endorsement of a 25 bp hike later this month, while reserving the right to accelerate later if needed.  At the same time, the 2-10-year curve flattened further yesterday, dipping below 35 bp.  There is a full slate of US data.  The Q4 productivity and unit labor costs are derived from Q4 GDP, but it is notable that despite the worries that higher wages were spurring inflation, unit labor costs, which wages, benefits and output rose by 0.3% in Q4, will show that the final estimate today is expected to confirm it.  The US also sees the final Markit services and composite PMI and the ISM services.  January factory orders and the final durable goods reading are also due.  Economists may use the ISM data to help fine-tune forecasts for tomorrow's jobs report.  The median forecast (Bloomberg's survey) has crept a little higher to 418k from 400k.  The Bank of Canada delivered the first hike in sequence that will run well into next year.  The 25 bp hike lift the bank rate to 0.50%.  There was no new forward guidance on the balance sheet strategy, which took many observers by surprise.  Perhaps it is the way the central bank could acknowledge the uncertainty spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  Governor Macklem speaks today and holds a press conference, where more insight into the central bank's thinking is likely.   Mexico's central bank cut this year's GDP forecast to 2.4% from 3.2%.  A little was pushed into next year (now seen at 2.9% rather than 2.7%) but some is simply lost.  It expects CPI to peak shortly and head back to 4% toward the end of the year.  That still seems optimistic.  Meanwhile, Deputy Governor Heath indicated he suggested a 75 bp hike last month but voted for the 50 bp move.      The US dollar set the high for the year last week near CAD1.2880.  Yesterday, it fell below the CAD1.2650-CAD1.2660 shelf that had been forged last month and settled on its lows slightly below CAD1.2630.  Follow-through selling saw the greenback slip below CAD1.2590 in early European turnover.  However, it snapped back to almost CAD1.2640.  Old support may now act as resistance. The US dollar rose slightly above last month's high yesterday against the Mexican peso (~MXN20.7850) but did not sustain the momentum and fell back to around MXN20.58.  It is inside yesterday's range today but looks poised to rechallenge the highs.  The year's high, set in late January, was near MXN20.9150.    Disclaimer

The S&P 500 index topped the 4,400 level yesterday despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Will the uptrend continue?The broad stock market index gained 1.86% on Wednesday following its Tuesday’s decline of 1.6%, as it fluctuated following last week’s rebound from the new medium-term low of 4,114.65. It was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. So the sentiment improved recently, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Yesterday the index went slightly above the 4,400 level and it was the highest since Feb. 17.For now, it looks like an upward correction. However, it may also be a more meaningful reversal following a deep 15% correction from the early January record high. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.6% higher following better-than-expected Unemployment Claims number release. However, we may see some more volatility.The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,400 and the next resistance level is at 4,450-4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350, among others. The S&P 500 index broke above the downward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):Futures Contract Trades Along the Local HighsLet’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Thursday it sold off after breaking below the 4,200 level. And since Friday it was trading along the 4,300 mark. This morning it is trading along the local highs.We are maintaining our profitable long position, as we are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com):ConclusionThe S&P 500 index will likely open 0.6% higher this morning. We may see more short-term fluctuations and obviously, the markets will continue to react to the Russia-Ukraine conflict news.Here’s the breakdown:The S&P 500 index bounced from the new low on Thursday after falling almost 15% from the early January record high.We are maintaining our profitable long position.We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

After the war-driven gold rally, oil is starting to outperform. History between these two has already shown that someone may suffer. Many suggest: gold miners.The precious metals corrected some of their gains yesterday, but overall, not much changed in them. However, quite a lot happened in crude oil, and in today’s analysis we’ll focus on what it implies for the precious metals market and, in particular – for mining stocks.As you may have noticed, crude oil shot up recently in a spectacular manner. This seems normal, as it’s a market with rather inflexible supply and demand, so disruptions in supply or threats thereof can impact the price in a substantial way. With Russia as one of the biggest crude oil producers, its invasion of Ukraine, and a number of sanctions imposed on the attacking country (some of them involving oil directly), it’s natural that crude oil reacts in a certain manner. The concern-based rally in gold is also understandable.However, the relationship between wars, concerns, and prices of assets is not as straightforward as “there’s a war, so gold and crude oil will go up.” In order to learn more about this relationship, let’s examine the most similar situation in recent history to the current one, when oil supplies were at stake.The war that I’m mentioning is the one between Iraq and the U.S. that started almost 20 years ago. Let’s see what happened in gold, oil, and gold stocks at that time.The most interesting thing is that when the war officially started, the above-mentioned markets were already after a decline. However, that’s not that odd, when one considers the fact that back then, the tensions were building for a long time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion.The point here, however, is that the markets rallied while the uncertainty and concerns were building up, and then declined when the situation was known and “stable.” I don’t mean that “war” was seen as stable, but rather that the outcome and how it affected the markets was rather obvious.The other point is the specific way in which all three markets reacted to the war and the timing thereof.Gold stocks rallied initially, but then were not that eager to follow gold higher, but that’s something that’s universal in the final stages of most rallies in the precious metals market. What’s most interesting here is that there was a time when crude oil rallied substantially, while gold was already declining.Let me emphasize that once again: gold topped first, and then it underperformed while crude oil continued to soar substantially.Fast forward to the current situation. What has happened recently?Gold moved above $1,970 (crude oil peaked at $100.54 at that time), and then it declined heavily. It’s now trying to move back to this intraday high, but it was not able to do so. At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading at about $1,930, while crude oil is trading at about $114.In other words, while gold declined by $30, crude oil rallied by about $14. That’s a repeat of what we saw in 2003!What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks.That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. The above doesn’t apply to silver as it’s a commodity, but it does apply to silver stocks.Back in 2004, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more.Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet.However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold.Investing and trading are difficult. If it was easy, most people would be making money – and they’re not. Right now, it’s most difficult to ignore the urge to “run for cover” if you physically don’t have to. The markets move on “buy the rumor and sell the fact.” This repeats over and over again in many (all?) markets, and we have direct analogies to similar situations in gold itself. Junior miners are likely to decline the most, also based on the massive declines that are likely to take place (in fact, they have already started) in the stock markets.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The momentum of pressure on the crypto market was due to the decline in stock indices, as the Fed gave signals of tightening policy. Technical factors also contributed to the negative dynamics - the inability to overcome the strong resistance of the 100-day moving average and mid-February highs around $45,000. Real Vision CEO Raul Pal believes that the dynamics of bitcoin against the backdrop of foreign political tensions in the world signals the onset of a bullish trend. According to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's leading independent financial institutions, BTC could reach $50,000 by the end of March. Billionaire investor Bill Miller said that the Russian authorities can use BTC as a reserve currency. Earlier, the US authorities called on crypto exchanges to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia did not begin to soften its attitude towards bitcoin against the backdrop of sanctions and still advocates a complete ban on the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is developing a correction, losing 4.5% over the past day to $41.4K. Methodical pressure on the first cryptocurrency was formed on Wednesday evening after a short break above $45K. Ethereum fell by 6.2%, other leading altcoins from the top ten sank from 2.8% (BNB) to 7.8% (Solana). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 3.7% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index sank 0.2 points to 42.9%. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index dropped another 6 points to 33 - fear.

USDJPY tests supply areaThe Japanese yen stalled after an increase in January’s unemployment rate.The pair’s rally above the supply zone around 115.80 has put the US dollar back on track. The general direction remains up despite its choppiness. 114.40 has proved to be solid support and kept the bulls in the game.A close above 115.80 would extend the rally to the double top (116.30), a major resistance on the daily chart. Meanwhile, an overbought RSI caused a limited pullback, with 115.10 as fresh support.NZDUSD breaks resistanceThe New Zealand dollar recovers amid commodity price rallies.After the pair found support near last September’s lows (0.6530), a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment could be turning around. A bullish breakout above the recent high (0.6810) would further boost buyers’ confidence and lift offers to January’s high at 0.6890.On the downside, 0.6730 is the first support if buyers struggle to gather more interest. 0.6675 would be a second layer to keep the current rebound intact.UK 100 lacks supportThe FTSE 100 slipped after the second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without much result.The index met stiff selling pressure at 7560 then fell below the critical floor at 7170. Increasingly bearish sentiment triggered a new round of sell-off to the psychological level of 7000 from last November.A deeper correction would lead to a retest of 6850, dampening the market mood in the medium-term. On the upside, the bulls must clear 7300 and 7450 to reclaim control of the direction.

Bitcoin price sees its gains being pared back a bit after more talks on regulatory crackdown out of U.S. on cryptocurrencies. Ethereum price slips further away from $3,018 after Powell's speech before Congress talked about regulating cryptocurrencies. XRP price sideways, awaiting a catalyst to go either way. Cryptocurrencies are facing some headwinds – whilst they have enjoyed more inflows of late as both Ukrainian and Russian inhabitants reverted to cryptocurrencies as an alternative means of payment to avoid sanctions – there are signs this loophole will soon be closed. During Biden's State of the Union speech the president asked for a crackdown on cryptocurrencies to close the escape route for wealthy Russians. FED chair Powell added fuel to the fire by saying that he would welcome further regulation to monitor and control cryptocurrencies better. The result is that these comments have triggered some nervousness in all significant cryptocurrency pairs. Bitcoin bulls are rejected at $44,088 with the risk of sliding back to $42,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a full paring back of the losses accumulated during the Russian invasion as cryptocurrencies saw renewed cash inflow from both Russians and Ukrainians looking for alternative means of payment after both central banks had put in cash withdrawal restrictions. As Bitcoin looked to be poised for another leg higher, both Biden and Powell created some headwinds by urging for more regulatory crackdown, as it is emerging that cryptocurrencies are undermining sanctions on Russia. With this renewed negative attention towards cryptocurrencies, investors are being quick to book profits and, in the process, are pushing BTC price action to the downside. BTC price saw an initial rejection at $45,261, a level which coincides with the low of December 17, and as such triggered some profit-taking. As profit-taking continues bulls are faced with another rejection at $44,088, a level that goes back to August 06. Below that, the search for support finds nothing until $41,756 or the psychological $42,000 level near the baseline of a bearish triangle we had marked up earlier. BTC/USD daily chart As more talks are underway, a breakthrough could still happen at any moment. If that happened, it would mean that bears would fail in their attempt to squeeze out bulls and get stopped out themselves once the price pierced through $44,088 to the upside. That move would even accelerate after shooting through $45,261, with a quick rally to $48,760 and, from there, positioning Bitcoin to pop back above $50,000 next week. Ethereum bulls are defending the 55-day SMA, but support is wearing thin Ethereum (ETH) price takes another step back today after more negative connotations from FED Chair Powell in the house hearing before Congress. Next to committing to more rate hikes, Powell also drilled down on cryptocurrencies and called them a risk that needs to be prioritised with regulations. That puts greater regulation for cryptocurrencies at the top of the congressional agenda – after Ukraine, and inland inflation had pushed that bullet point further down the list. For the moment, ETH sees bulls defending the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,880. Although it looks good to hold for now, in the past, the 55-day SMA has not built a solid reputation of being well respected. So expect a possible breach once the US session kicks in and Powell makes more negative comments on cryptocurrencies in his second day of congressional hearings, which will likely push ETH price below the 55-day SMA at $2,880, through the monthly pivot at $2,835, and down to a possible endpoint at around $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart As the situation in Russia further deteriorates with more sanctions on the shelf, residents will be forced even more to flee into cryptocurrencies to avoid any repercussions from the financial sanctions imposed. That would mean broad flux inflow throughout the coming days, with ETH price action popping above $3,018, and in the process breaking the double top of rejection from Tuesday and Wednesday. To the upside, that could see $3,391 for a test as the inflow will outweigh any bearish attempts from short sellers. XRP price testing monthly pivot to the downside as dollar strength weighs Ripple's (XRP) price is under pressure to the downside as bears are putting in their effort to break the new monthly pivot at $0.76. Bears are getting help from the other side of the asset pair by the dollar’s strength weighing on price action for a second consecutive day. With Ukraine's current tension and possible retaliation from Russia against the West, safe havens are broadly bid with the Greenback on the front foot and thus outpacing XRP’s valuation, resulting in a move lower. Expect XRP price to see an accelerated move once the monthly pivot at $0.76 gives way. With not much in the way, the road is open to drop to $0.62, with $0.70 and $0.68 as possible breaking off points where bears could see some profit-taking and attempts by bulls to halt the downturn. But the trifecta of the negative comments from both Biden and Powell joined with the safe-haven bid is too big of a force to withstand, making $0.62 almost inevitable in the coming hours or trading days. XRP/USD daily chart The only event that could turn this around is if a catalyst were to remove the safe-haven bid. That could come with a resolution of the current tension in Ukraine or surrender of the Russian army of some sort. In such an outcome, the safe-haven bid would evaporate, followed by a massive risk-on flow which would see XRP pop above $0.78 and rally to $0.88, taking out $0.84 along the way to the upside.

Silver is consolidating close to multi-month highs not far below $25.50 as markets remain intensely focused on the Ukraine conflict. Technicians have noted that spot silver prices have over the last few days formed an ascending triangle. Upcoming tier one US data releases (ISM Services on Thursday, NFP on Friday) will play second fiddle for geopolitics. Spot silver (XAG/USD) prices are consolidating close to multi-month highs with the $25.50 per troy ounce mark for now acting as resistance, but ongoing nervousness about the ongoing Ukraine conflict and its economic impact underpinning the safe-haven metal for now. At current levels in the $25.30s, spot silver trades broadly flat on the day, with focus for now on talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations in the hopes that some sort of ceasefire might be in the offing. Given maximalist demands still being made by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, demands which the Ukrainian government is very unlikely to accept, hopes that a broad ceasefire agreement can be reached are slim. That suggests no end in sight for the rally in the prices of commodities exported by Russia (oil, gas, various agricultural products and base metals), which will likely keep assets deemed as offering inflation protection in demand (like silver). Technicians have noted that spot silver prices have over the last few days formed an ascending triangle, a pattern that is more often than not indicative of a bullish breakout. Technical buying on a break above the $25.50 could dovetail nicely with the fundamentals if the Ukraine conflict continues to intensify and Western nations are expected to continue tightening the sanctions noose around Russia’s neck. Silver can move aggressively and some bulls likely have their sights set on mid-2021 highs in the $28.00 area. With focus so heavily on geopolitics, upcoming tier one US data releases (ISM Services PMI on Thursday and the official jobs report on Friday) and the second day of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Congress will take something of a back seat. Powell explained on Wednesday that current uncertainties regarding the impact of the Ukraine war would not deter the Fed from getting moving regarding removing policy stimulus. An expected strong jobs report on Friday should support this stance and probably won’t dent silver’s near-term appeal much.

  Kherson fell, but Ukrainians are still fighting fiercely. In the face of war, gold also shows courage – to move steadily up. The battle of Ukraine is still going on. Russian troops took control of Kherson, a city of about 300,000 in the south of Ukraine, but other main cities haven’t been captured yet. Ukrainian soldiers even managed to conduct some counter-offensive actions near the country’s capital. There is a large Russian column advancing on Kyiv, but its progress has been very slow over the last few days due to the staunch Ukrainian resistance and Russian forces’ problems with equipment, tactics, and supplies, including fuel and food. David is still bravely fighting Goliath! Of course, Russian forces still have an advantage and are progressing. However, the pace of the invasion is much slower than Vladimir Putin and his generals expected. The Ukrainians’ defense is much fiercer, while Russia’s losses are more severe. The Russian defense ministry admitted that 498 Russian soldiers have already been killed and 1,597 wounded, but the real number is probably much higher. Even if Russia takes control of other cities, it’s unclear whether it will be able to hold them. What’s more, although the West didn’t engage directly in the war, the response of the West was much stronger than Putin could probably have expected. The US and its allies supplied Ukraine with weapons and imposed severe sanctions against Putin and the Russian governing elite, as well as on Russia’s economy and financial system. For instance, the West decided to exclude several Russian banks from SWIFT and also to freeze most of Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserve assets. Additionally, many international companies are moving out of Russia or exporting their products to this country, adding to the economic pressure. The ruble plummeted, as the chart below shows.   Implications for Gold What does the ongoing war in Ukraine mean for the precious metals market? Well, the continuous heroic stance of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukrainian defenders is not only heating up the hearts of all freedom-lovers, but also gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has soared to about $1,930, the highest level since January 2021. As a reminder, until recently, gold was unable to surpass $1,800. Thus, the recent rally is noteworthy. The war is clearly boosting the safe-haven demand for gold. Another bullish driver is rising inflation. According to early estimates, euro area annual inflation soared from 5.1% in January to 5.8%, and the war is likely to add to the inflationary pressure due to rising energy prices. Both Brent and WTI oil prices have surged above $110 per barrel. Last but not least, I have to mention Powell’s appearance before Congress. In the prepared testimony, he said that the Fed would hike the federal funds rate this month, despite the war in Ukraine: Our monetary policy has been adapting to the evolving economic environment, and it will continue to do so. We have phased out our net asset purchases. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month. This sounds rather hawkish and, thus, bearish for gold. However, Powell acknowledged that the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The near-term effects on the U.S. economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain. Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. Hence, the war in Eastern Europe could make the Fed more dovish than expected at a time when inflation could be higher than forecasted before the war outbreak. Such an environment should be bullish for the gold market. However, there is one important caveat. The detailed analysis of gold prices shows that they declined around the first and second rounds of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats in anticipation of the end of the conflict. However, when it became apparent that the talks ended in a stalemate, gold resumed its upward move. The implication should be clear: as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine, but when the ceasefire or truce is agreed, we could see a correction in the gold market. It doesn’t have to be a great plunge, but a large part of the geopolitical premium will disappear. Having said that, the war may take a while. I pray that I’m wrong, but the slow progress of the Russian invasion could prompt Vladimir Putin to adopt a “whatever it takes” stance. According to some experts, he is already more emotional than usual, and when faced with the prospects of failure, he could become even more brutal or irrational. We already see that Russian troops, unable to break the Ukrainian defense in open combat, siege the cities and bomb civilians. Hence, the continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

It was another week of trade that, in many ways, continues to be governed by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The week started with a sharp decline but buyers soon came back to life after new lows were hit since the Russian invasion began. Monday and Tuesday saw a follow-up to the buyback with solid gains that have not been seen for a while, hitting a lot of the top ten. For instance, Bitcoin added over 17% in two sessions. This type of buyer momentum got people excited and started to remind us of years just gone by. Sadly, the momentum didn’t last, and we have seen three to two days of declines leading into the weekend session. But the declines have not been market-wide, and we have seen exceptions on the boards, with several coins continuing to fly higher. LUNA, ROOK, ATOM and RUNE have been standouts, but Waves has stolen the show, hitting +67% with a weekly high of $20.87. The top ten and most of the top 25 followed tensions in Europe. As the fighting intensified, markets declined. Today, selling continued to pick up as fighting turned critical as news hit of a major nuclear power station being shelled. As of Friday, many of the top ten and 25 remained in the blue but well off earlier highs. Traders will continue to monitor the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, looking for signs of anything escalating and forcing risk markets lower. US authorities also said they would target Russian funds moving into Crypto. However, proving and stopping it may not impact the currencies. This week we want to look at Bitcoin in more detail. $44,600 has been reconfirmed as resistance and, for now, has stopped the rally. This level is our roof, and a move through would suggest that buyers are still in control. On the downside, we received 36,800 support. If the price returns to this level and breaks through it, we will be looking for sellers to try and resume the downtrend. Otherwise, a hold in-between these two levels suggests we have a consolidation range on our hands. The post Your Crypto Focus: 5th-11th March appeared first on Eightcap.

The US has gained a whopping 678,000 jobs in February. Slower wage growth is due to the return of lower-paying jobs, and markets are set to ignore it.Russia's invasion of Ukraine is already boosting the dollar and it now gets another push.As if the dollar needs another boost – February's Nonfarm Payrolls have confirmed that the US labor market is on fire. The economy is benefiting from the retreat of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, which further cements the first pandemic-era rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The war will not stop the central bank.The US gained no fewer than 678,000 jobs in February, on top of an upward-revised and strong 481,000 increase in January. Moreover, the unemployment rate slipped to 3.8% – an excellent number in absolute terms, and even better when coming amid an increase in the participation rate to 62.3%. All these figures beat estimates. The disappointing data comes from wages, which remained flat in February and only 5.1% up YoY compared with 5.7% recorded in January. However, that is due to the much-needed return of leisure and hospitality workers who are paid lower wages. Broader employment outweighs a drop in wages. The greenback has been benefiting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which is now on its ninth day. The latest scare comes from Europe's largest nuclear power station, which was hit by Russian fire and later taken over by invading soldiers. With every day that passes without a resolution, the global economic damage intensifies. For the Fed, a 5.1% increase in wages as seen in Average Hourly Earnings continues supportingthe need to raise rates. Substantial job gains go hand in hand with employers competing for employees, pushing their salaries higher – and in turn adding to price pressures. Higher energy prices had already shown that such shocks tend to propagate into the broader economy, lifting core prices and salaries. The war has sent oil and gas surging, threatening to further boost inflation. While this NFP report is unlikely to push the Fed to a double-dose rate hike, it could convince officials to forecast a steeper path of increases to borrowing costs. That would further underpin the greenback. In the shorter term, the mix of a strong jobs report, the ongoing war and the closing of trading for the weekend could encourage investors to take further risks off the table – and send them to the safety of the US dollar.

Red flags for Shiba Inu as three bearish strikes are putting SHIB on track for a 17% loss. Markets, in general, are moving into hibernation mode to overcome the rising tensions in Ukraine.Expect the downtrend to continue until the floor is reached at around $0.00002100.Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action is under the scrutiny of bears as bulls have given away their upper hand and are falling over each other to get out of SHIB price action as it tanks for a third consecutive day. With three bearish signals on the technical front and failed peace talks again between Russia and Ukraine, the background looks set for more downturns to come. From the opening price today, SHIB price action is set to correct another 17% before the current intermediary floor is reached for a test of $0.00002100.SHIB price action is going along with global markets and sees safe-haven bids outweigh the upside potentialShiba Inu price action is under siege by bears after a series of bearish coups overtook price action. On Wednesday, the first negative signal came from a false break and bull trap, at $0.00002707 and the monthly pivot. Bulls broke above but got washed out of their positions by bears, pushing price action below the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.00002600. The SMA in its turn again triggered a rejection at the top side on Thursday with bulls being squeezed out of their positions.The pain for SHIB bulls looks far from over as in early morning trading during the ASIA PAC session, strike three was delivered with a break below the low of yesterday, leading to price action dangling above an abyss of around 17%. The first and only real solid support to the downside is at around $0.00002100, with the green ascending trendline holding five solid tests proving that it is a line in the sand where bulls will engage in full force to uphold price action from falling further. The psychological $0.00002000 should add to the strength of the level, but an eventful weekend could see a further crackdown towards $0.00001883 at the monthly S1 support level.SHIB/USD daily chartAs said in the introductory statement, all this results from the Ukraine situation and global markets further going into safe-haven mode. All it would take are just some flairs of positive news alluding to a solution in Ukraine that would trigger a quick and smooth turnaround back towards $0.00002800. With that move, not only would the red descending trend line at the top side be broken, but as well the 78.6% Fibonacci level would come into play, opening the door for more upside to come.

Monday seems to be a calm beginning of the week (despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict) as there’s no any major event planned. The rest of the week 7/03-11/03 will surely arouse more interest. What to follow? Have a look at Economic Calendar by FXMAG.COM Tuesday – Japan and Poland The first important indicator of the week is the Japanese GDP (QoQ) (Q4) which is released very lately on Tuesday at 11:40 p.m. The previous value – 1.3% As tensions rise, the country which lies closely to Ukraine has its currency (PLN) weakened, so the Interest Rate Decision of National Bank released on Tuesday as well is worth a look as well. Wednesday - USA On Wednesday we focus on USA, where JOLTs Job Openings (3 p.m.) and US Crude Oil Inventories (3:30 p.m.) are released. Thursday – European Union and USA Thursday is full of Europe-targeted events. According to Investing.com, at 10 a.m., EU Leaders meet at the Summit and shortly after midday ECB releases its Marginal Lending Facility its Interest Rate Decision. At 1.30 p.m. there is a Press Conference planned. The same time ECB speaks to media, US Bureau Of Labor Statistics releases Core CPI (MoM) of February which previously hit 0.6% Friday – UK, EU And Canada Who’s going to wake up early on Friday? The answer is UK Office of National Statistics which releases GDP (MoM) and Manufacturing Production (MoM) at 7 a.m. EU Leaders will rest a little longer as they meet at the another Summit at 10 a.m. According to Investing.com the latest “triple-star” event of 11/03 is the release of Employment Change indicator in Canada, which hit -200.1K in the month before. Data: Investing.com Time: GMT

The Ukrainian deputy prime minister called on crypto exchanges to ban all Russian users. Were they right to refuse?

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Bitcoin’s rise suggests that it may still live up to its promise as a safe haven.

The Ukrainian government has announced an airdrop amid the latest push for cryptocurrency donations during Russia’s invasion.

The Ukrainian government is piling on the pressure for crypto exchanges to take action against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.

Yellen suggested the cryptocurrency sector wasn't one Russia could easily use to evade sanctions.

France’s Finance Minister, Bruno le Maire, said the European Union is making sure cryptocurrencies don't let Russia evade sanctions.

Former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said she is "disappointed" in some crypto exchanges’ response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has said the exchange will comply with a ban on Russian users should the U.S. government impose such rules.

Japan’s financial services regulator and crypto industry body are assessing how Russia might evade economic sanctions using cryptocurrencies.

With a sharp decline over the weekend, Bitcoin wiped out the initial gains, gave away the positions to bears after the third straight week of gains. On Saturday and Sunday, there were drawdowns to $34K on the low-liquid market. So the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $38K with a 3.8% loss. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has reached $39,000 while Ethereum has lost 4.5%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten decline from 2% (XRP) to 6.8% (LUNA). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 3.8%, to $1.71 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index sank from 42.9% on Friday to 42.3% due to the sale of bitcoin over the weekend. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 23 now, remaining in a state of "extreme fear". Looking back, in the middle of the week, the index had a moment in the neutral position. The FxPro Analyst team mentioned that the sales were triggered by reports that the BTC.com pool banned the registration of Russian users. Cryptocurrencies do not remain aloof from politics, and they are weakly confirming the role of an alternative to the banking system now, supporting EU and US sanctions against Russia, and showing their own initiative. The news appeared that Switzerland would freeze the crypto assets of the Russians who fall under the sanctions. In the second half of the week, bitcoin lost almost all the growth against the backdrop of a decline in stock indices. Although, last week started on a positive wave: BTC added almost $8,000 (21%) since previous Monday, but couldn't overcome the strong resistance of mid-February highs at around $45,000 and the 100-day moving average. Speaking about the prospects, pressure on all risky assets will continue to be exerted by the situation around Ukraine, where hostilities have been taking place for two weeks. Worth mentioning that the world-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki said that the US is “destroying the dollar” and called for investing in gold and bitcoin. At the same time, the founder of the investment company SkyBridge Capital (Anthony Scaramucci) is confident that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2024. At the moment, he has invested about $1 billion in BTC. Plis, a group of American senators is developing a bill that opens access to the crypto market for institutional investors. And one more news to consider: the city of Lugano in Switzerland has recognized bitcoin and the leading stablecoin Tether (USDT) as legal tender.

The Russian economy continues to be hit by increasing global sanctions as the conflict escalates between Russia and Ukraine and after recent news regarding a potential ban of russian imports from Europe and America has severely impacted the situation as the country continues to be more economically isolated and may have to search for alternative export destinations. While this news has led oil prices to reach the highest level since 2008 with brent spot approaching $140 per barrel, the russian economy continues to suffer from sanctions and with no end to the conflict in sight, we could see a continuation of this trend despite the talks of a nearing agreement on the Iran nuclear deal as well as potential for the US to revoke sanctions on Venezuela in an attempt to stabilize the energy market. While there seems to be a way to compensate for the Russian oil supply down the line, the situation remains dire for the time being and could lead to prices testing even higher levels as uncertainty across markets continues to grow. Halifax HPI shows fastest increase since 2007 House prices rose at the fastest annual pace since 2007 and reached a new record high according to today’s Halifax HPI report with monthly house price growth rising to +0.5% following a slower start to the year. While the annual rate of growth increased by +10.8% and reached the strongest level since June 2007, the impact on household finances is still expected to weigh on the market this year as rising inflation and increased costs could undermine the post pandemic economic recovery and slow down the housing market significantly as demand becomes severely impacted.

Russia-Ukraine tensions keeps affecting markets, especially commodities, which are the most vulnerable to such conflicts. As we know international sanctions are being introduced so global inflation gains momentum. Crude Oil Price – Implications: UKOIL gained Ca. 8% on today’s opening, however, as the chart (courtesy of TradingView.com) shows, a small downtrend appeared sometime late. BRENT’s west brother WTI (USOIL) increased even more – almost 10% As Patrick De Haan claims: Patrick De Haan's Twitt

This historically neutral country hasn't just joined the European Union in sanctioning Russia—it's going after Russians' crypto, too.

Crypto exchange Coinbase has said it has blocked over 25,000 Russia-linked addresses it believes were associated with illicit activity.

The Swing Overview - Week 9 The war in Ukraine continues, and although we all want this tragic event to be ended immediately, but unfortunately, according to last statements of Russian officials, it looks like the war will drag on for a longer period of time. Investors have reacted to this development by selling risk assets, including the Czech koruna. Stock indices are losing ground and the DAX in particular has been under heavy pressure. On the other hand, commodities such as oil, gold, and coal are strengthening strongly. Somewhat surprising is the development in the Australian dollar, which usually weakens in the events of geopolitical uncertainties. However, there is a reason for its current rise. More on this in our article. Conflict in Ukraine   Vladimir Putin probably did not expect to encounter such a brave resistance from Ukraine and that  almost the whole world would send Russia into isolation through significant sanctions. The list of companies and actions that have cut ties with Russia is growing day by the day and Western companies are leaving Russia. Thus, for Russians, foreign goods (food, clothing, furniture, electronics, cars) will gradually become very rare. Probably the strongest sanction that Russia has felt so far, was the freeze of the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves. In response, the Russian ruble began to depreciate significantly on February 28, 2022, and has already lost more than 30% of its pre-invasion value. In response, the Russian Central Bank intervened by raising the interest rate to 20%, which temporarily halted the ruble's fall.    Figure 1: The Russian ruble paired with the USD and the euro Meanwhile, Western countries have not exhausted all options to stop Russia in this war through economic sanctions in case of further escalation of the conflict yet. The fact that European countries might stop taking Russian gas is also at stake. This would, of course, have a very significant impact on the entire European economy. However, these are still just some economic losses, which can not be   compared at all with the losses of lives experienced by the unprecedentedly attacked Ukraine. In any case, this crisis seems to have the potential to surpass in its consequences the crisis that occurred in Russia in 1998, which led to inflation exceeding 80% and central bank interest rates reaching 150%.   Data from the US economy The ISM manufacturing sentiment indicator for February came in at 58.6 which is better than expected and points to an optimistic development of the US economy. In the labour market sector, the ADP (non-farm job change) indicator was reported, which showed that 475 thousand jobs were created in America in February (compared to 509 thousand in January). The number of unemployment claims reached 215 thousand last week, which was less than expected 226 thousand. Thus, the data show that the US economy is doing well so far and the US Fed is going to raise interest rates at its next meeting on March 16, 2022. Jerome Powell said that he would support a 0.25% rate hike. Powell also said that the war in Ukraine means significant uncertainty for monetary policy.   The US dollar and bond yields The US dollar continues to strengthen, as the USD index shows. In addition to the expected US interest rate hike, the US dollar bullishness is explained by demand for US government bonds in times of uncertainty. Demand for these bonds then pushes down their yields, which continue to fall. Figure 2: 10-year government bond yield on the 4H chart and USD index on the daily chart Index SP500 The US SP 500 index moved in a consolidation range last week. This shows that investors have so far viewed the conflict in Ukraine as an event that is more or less a regional event and therefore saw cheap stocks as a buying opportunity.  However, the sanctions adopted by Western countries will of course also have an impact on the global economy, especially if the conflict deepens further. This concern was then reflected at the end of the week when the index started to weaken. Figure 3: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   Resistance according to the H4 chart is in the region of around 4,410 - 4,420. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 4255 - 4284. Significant support is at 4,100 - 4,113. German DAX index In contrast to the SP 500 index, there was a big sell-off in the DAX, showing that investors are worried, among other things, that a further escalation of the conflict could lead to a disruption in the supply of Russian gas, on which Germany is heavily dependent.  According to the daily chart, it looks like the DAX index is now in free fall and is breaking through support barriers as if they did not exist. It looks like the market is starting to show signs of panic selling by inexperienced investors.  If you are speculating in the short term, then bear in mind that short term speculation against such a strong downtrend is very disadvantageous and risky.   Figure 4: DAX on H4 and daily chart     Current resistance is in the area of 13,655 - 13,756. The price is now at support at 13,400, which is already slightly broken, but the closing of the whole session will be crucial. The next support is then at 13 000 - 13 100.   The Czech koruna is losing significantly The Czech koruna has long benefited from the interest rate differential, which has been very favourable for the koruna against the euro and has been the reason why the koruna has appreciated strongly since November 2021. But the Czech koruna, along with other Central European currencies, is a currency that is losing ground heavily in the current conflict.   Figure 5: The EURCZK on the daily chart   Firstly, there is the concern that the Czech Republic is geographically quite close to Ukraine, even though the Czech Republic does not have very significant exports directly with Ukraine nor Russia (in total, around 3% of total Czech exports). At the same time, there is concern about the Czech Republic's dependence on Russian gas. If the taps are closed, then the koruna could shoot above  CZK 27 per euro. Currently, the EURCZK pair is trading at the resistance level of 25. 80 - 25.90.   The Australian dollar The Australian dollar is a currency that tends to weaken during major global crises. In particular, the AUDJPY pair is correlated with the SP 500 index in the short term. Currently, however, the Australian dollar is strengthening.  This is because the Australian economy is export-oriented and exports commodities such as gold, iron ore, coal and gas.  All these commodities are now in high demand. Europe, for example, is realising that dependence on Russian gas is not paying off and is looking for alternatives. A temporary solution will be to rebuild coal-fired power stations. Germany and Italy have already started to buy coal stocks, which are therefore appreciating strongly. As a result, the price of coal has sky-rocketed, with one tonne reaching a record price of the USD 400. Figure 6: The coal price   The gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, is also strengthening. The gold has also been helped by a fall in US bond yields.   Figure 7: The gold on H4 and D1 charts   In terms of technical analysis, the gold stopped at the resistance of $1,973 per ounce. The nearest support according to the daily chart is  $1,870 - 1,878 per ounce. The rise in commodity prices then resulted in the strengthening of the Australian dollar.     Figure 8: The AUDJPY currency pair on D1 chart   The AUDJPY broke the resistance in the range of 0.8400 - 0.8420, which became the new support. The next resistance is then at the level of 85.90 - 86.20.  

Markets have started the week with further heavy selling as the conflict in Ukraine continued to intensify. From Friday’s crazy reports of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant being shelled to broken ceasefires and trapped residents unable to evacuate. Today’s reports suggested Russia had agreed to stop fighting on their side to finally allow trapped residents to evacuate to safe zones.  Oil and Gold have been headline movers, but it hasn’t been all about them. We have continued to watch stock drops on stock indexes. European indexes and Asian indexes have been particularly hard hit, with several losing over 15% in the last two monthly bars, including this month. Oil has not only been a flyer as the world watches Russia and Ukraine, but the energy shock has sent oil prices flying. WTI has seen over 40% added in the last two months, and the rally has been running for the last four months straight. Oil jumped to 13-year highs today as reports mentioned the U.S and Europe could look at banning Russian crude imports.  Getting back to stock indexes, the oil rally has also contributed to the decline. Oil at these highs ramps up inflation fears, that are already running hot and start to put growth pressure back on economies that are just beginning to come out of the pandemic. Business requires energy. High energy costs make business more expensive and can be passed onto the consumer, increasing the cost of goods.  Surging inflation has mainly been a US and European issue, but if it ramped up all over the world, many economies might not be ready to start raising rates to combat it. For instance, Australia’s building industry has been kept alive by a super-hot housing market. Rising rates could cool off the housing market and put pressure on the building and trade industries. One major building group just failed. Higher rates and reduced business could show cracks in more companies.  We’ve picked a few markets out to take a closer look.  Euro Stoxx 50 The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 20% to its low. Europen shares, especially German shares, have been hit hard by the conflict in Ukraine. Sellers have cut close half of the rally seen from 2020. Today sellers retraced all gains made in 2021 after hitting 3381.  Hang Seng Index This one went a little under the radar, but I saw the damage that has been done to this index and was quite surprised. 14% has been wiped off the index in the last two months and the price today slipped below the 2020 low. When you compare it to the JPN225 that’s where the shock comes from, as it has dropped 8%. Gold Gold has been a significant talking point during the crisis. Good old Gold went straight back to safe mode as traders looked for a safe bet in a time of crisis. The rally in the last two months has been rather explosive. Buyers have added over 11% to the value, and we saw $2000USD touched today. Price now sits 3.72% away from retesting highs set back in 2020 in the heart of the pandemic. Another factor that might be adding to the appreciation. Reposts suggest that Gold could be being used to pay for oil. This is interesting as oil has always been paid for in USD. But with Russia partially locked out of SWIFT and the Fed blocking their USD transactions, Gold could be a new payment option moving forward.  Uncertainty presents Volatility Currently, our margin levels remain unchanged across all instruments and we offer one of the best swap conditions on key instruments such as Gold. Make the most out of market movements right now with Eightcap. For more information on market updates and our swap rates, please contact our award-winning customer service team. The post CFD Update: Three Markets to Watch as Markets Open Today appeared first on Eightcap.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the continued gains in the Corn futures bets. The speculative net position in the Corn futures rose this week for a second consecutive week and for the fourth time in six weeks. Corn speculator bets have risen by a total of +46,446 contracts over these past two weeks and pushed the current net speculator standing to the highest level in the last forty-two weeks, dating back to May 11th of 2021 when the net position totaled +500,856 contracts. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has boosted already rising soft commodities markets with Corn, Soybeans and Wheat seeing especially sharp gains in the past two weeks. The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (9,196 contracts), Sugar (9,293 contracts), Soybean Oil (1,859 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,083 contracts), Cotton (1,526 contracts) and Wheat (10,345 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Cocoa (-16,484 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,199 contracts), Coffee (-5,885 contracts), Soybeans (-7,557 contracts) and Live Cattle (-23,204 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,028,476 25 368,663 14 -410,955 79 42,292 75 Gold 615,600 51 257,622 70 -285,809 30 28,187 44 Silver 157,391 23 44,948 67 -57,150 43 12,202 14 Copper 195,398 23 22,093 58 -29,380 39 7,287 67 Palladium 7,242 4 -904 16 423 79 481 73 Platinum 65,383 31 16,890 26 -24,196 74 7,306 64 Natural Gas 1,112,832 3 -126,409 41 90,088 59 36,321 71 Brent 198,920 39 -6,707 100 4,004 0 2,703 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 758,796 35 218,907 84 -189,233 21 -29,674 21 Corn 1,484,670 18 460,938 89 -427,812 11 -33,126 24 Coffee 252,545 24 61,906 94 -66,290 8 4,384 19 Sugar 816,211 0 84,539 54 -105,323 48 20,784 34 Wheat 372,124 19 6,443 52 303 41 -6,746 69   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 460,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 451,742 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.8 44.0 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 72.8 11.4 – Net Position: 460,938 -427,812 -33,126 – Gross Longs: 531,633 652,937 136,120 – Gross Shorts: 70,695 1,080,749 169,246 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.9 11.0 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.3 -12.1 7.1   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,246 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 54.4 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.8 67.3 7.2 – Net Position: 84,539 -105,323 20,784 – Gross Longs: 180,931 443,667 79,458 – Gross Shorts: 96,392 548,990 58,674 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.0 48.2 33.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.9 4.1 8.5   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,906 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,791 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 44.3 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 70.5 2.5 – Net Position: 61,906 -66,290 4,384 – Gross Longs: 73,322 111,809 10,704 – Gross Shorts: 11,416 178,099 6,320 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.6 7.9 18.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.4 0.5 8.5   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 218,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 226,464 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.9 43.3 6.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.1 68.3 10.6 – Net Position: 218,907 -189,233 -29,674 – Gross Longs: 264,899 328,781 50,659 – Gross Shorts: 45,992 518,014 80,333 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.4 21.3 20.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.4 -22.8 10.4   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.4 46.7 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 73.3 5.2 – Net Position: 84,952 -100,238 15,286 – Gross Longs: 110,869 175,682 34,986 – Gross Shorts: 25,917 275,920 19,700 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.7 29.7 70.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.0 -20.1 25.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 113,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,100 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.2 44.0 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.7 78.9 5.0 – Net Position: 113,183 -138,449 25,266 – Gross Longs: 127,976 175,029 45,168 – Gross Shorts: 14,793 313,478 19,902 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.1 3.7 71.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.9 -17.2 -7.3   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,243 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.3 38.5 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.8 52.8 11.7 – Net Position: 59,039 -51,142 -7,897 – Gross Longs: 115,502 137,310 33,952 – Gross Shorts: 56,463 188,452 41,849 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.6 65.8 67.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 5.7 -5.9   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,438 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.2 32.4 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 51.4 11.8 – Net Position: 61,239 -52,397 -8,842 – Gross Longs: 102,930 89,767 23,714 – Gross Shorts: 41,691 142,164 32,556 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.5 29.6 41.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.1 -21.6 28.2   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,526 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,302 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.2 38.4 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.7 81.4 3.4 – Net Position: 91,828 -102,842 11,014 – Gross Longs: 103,148 91,726 19,051 – Gross Shorts: 11,320 194,568 8,037 – Long to Short Ratio: 9.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.2 17.8 82.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.1 3.2 -13.2   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,915 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 45.5 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.5 59.5 3.2 – Net Position: 25,431 -35,441 10,010 – Gross Longs: 74,581 114,758 18,047 – Gross Shorts: 49,150 150,199 8,037 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.5 47.2 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 -4.1 68.8   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,902 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.2 42.2 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.5 42.1 10.2 – Net Position: 6,443 303 -6,746 – Gross Longs: 104,934 157,102 31,257 – Gross Shorts: 98,491 156,799 38,003 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.5 41.1 69.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.4 -4.7 15.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is this week’s jump in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures rose this week for the first time in the past six weeks and had the largest one-week gain of the past sixty-six weeks, dating back to November 24th of 2020. The WTI Crude contract had been seeing a weakness in speculator positions despite the ramping up of the Russia-Ukraine situation as spec positions had fallen for six straight weeks before this week’s turnaround. Crude oil prices have surged on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with oil closing this week right below the $116 per barrel level which marks the highest price close since 2008. Joining WTI Crude Oil (29,622 contracts) in gaining this week were Brent Crude Oil (19,648 contracts) and Natural Gas (4,220 contracts) while Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-1,144 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-709 contracts) saw falling contracts. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,028,476 25 368,663 14 -410,955 79 42,292 75 Gold 615,600 51 257,622 70 -285,809 30 28,187 44 Silver 157,391 23 44,948 67 -57,150 43 12,202 14 Copper 195,398 23 22,093 58 -29,380 39 7,287 67 Palladium 7,242 4 -904 16 423 79 481 73 Platinum 65,383 31 16,890 26 -24,196 74 7,306 64 Natural Gas 1,112,832 3 -126,409 41 90,088 59 36,321 71 Brent 198,920 39 -6,707 100 4,004 0 2,703 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 758,796 35 218,907 84 -189,233 21 -29,674 21 Corn 1,484,670 18 460,938 89 -427,812 11 -33,126 24 Coffee 252,545 24 61,906 94 -66,290 8 4,384 19 Sugar 816,211 0 84,539 54 -105,323 48 20,784 34 Wheat 372,124 19 6,443 52 303 41 -6,746 69   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 368,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 339,041 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.9 36.0 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 56.2 2.8 – Net Position: 368,663 -410,955 42,292 – Gross Longs: 465,365 729,585 99,568 – Gross Shorts: 96,702 1,140,540 57,276 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.0 79.1 74.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 6.4 1.4   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 19,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,355 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.1 40.9 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.5 38.9 2.9 – Net Position: -6,707 4,004 2,703 – Gross Longs: 45,940 81,376 8,390 – Gross Shorts: 52,647 77,372 5,687 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 45.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.7 -21.9 -4.0   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -126,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,220 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,629 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.1 43.6 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 35.5 2.1 – Net Position: -126,409 90,088 36,321 – Gross Longs: 245,502 484,644 59,416 – Gross Shorts: 371,911 394,556 23,095 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.6 59.3 70.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 1.2 11.2   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 62,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,587 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.8 50.4 6.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 70.4 3.6 – Net Position: 62,443 -72,465 10,022 – Gross Longs: 97,185 182,352 22,896 – Gross Shorts: 34,742 254,817 12,874 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.6 64.5 71.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 -5.2 21.2   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,876 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,167 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.4 29.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 94.6 1.6 0.2 – Net Position: -12,876 11,345 1,531 – Gross Longs: 26,144 12,001 1,605 – Gross Shorts: 39,020 656 74 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 18.3 to 1 21.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.2 36.9 73.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.0 -16.8 34.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data is the surge higher in the bearish bets of the 5-Year Bond futures. The speculative bearish position in the 5-Year has increased for four straight weeks and has seen bearish bets change by at least -125,000 contracts in each of the past two weeks. The cumulative decline over the past four weeks has now amounted to a total of -353,515 contracts. This bearishness has pushed the current speculator standing to the most negative level in the past one hundred and seventy-two weeks, dating back to November of 2018. The speculator strength index score also hit a zero percent score this week, reiterating the weakness of the 5-Year speculator sentiment (the speculator strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). Despite the speculator weakness, the 5-Year Bond price this week rose as safe havens were bid with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the risk-off tone of the markets. The bond markets with higher speculator positions this week were the 2-Year Bond (9,132 contracts), Eurodollar (163,136 contracts) and the Long US Treasury Bond (10,209 contracts) while the bond markets with lower speculator positions were the 5-Year Bond (-126,803 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-80,691 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-17,360 contracts), Fed Funds (-112,320 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-880 contracts). Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 11,107,908 47 -2,219,731 3 2,611,337 96 -391,606 18 FedFunds 1,860,806 63 -139,272 22 159,332 79 -20,060 12 2-Year 2,047,626 11 -110,827 60 180,391 59 -69,564 14 Long T-Bond 1,113,867 34 -4,529 92 28,819 29 -24,290 33 10-Year 3,772,058 49 -365,783 16 585,754 95 -219,971 27 5-Year 3,807,232 37 -474,039 0 706,436 100 -232,397 17   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,219,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 163,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,382,867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 74.8 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 51.3 7.2 – Net Position: -2,219,731 2,611,337 -391,606 – Gross Longs: 591,420 8,313,755 411,021 – Gross Shorts: 2,811,151 5,702,418 802,627 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.3 95.7 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 7.6 0.8   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -139,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -112,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,952 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.3 78.7 1.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.8 70.2 2.5 – Net Position: -139,272 159,332 -20,060 – Gross Longs: 43,149 1,464,992 26,323 – Gross Shorts: 182,421 1,305,660 46,383 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.4 79.2 12.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.7 15.1 5.7   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -110,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,959 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.7 78.4 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.1 69.6 11.0 – Net Position: -110,827 180,391 -69,564 – Gross Longs: 240,027 1,605,575 155,387 – Gross Shorts: 350,854 1,425,184 224,951 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.9 59.3 14.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.2 33.6 -1.8   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -474,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -126,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -347,236 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.2 83.1 7.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.7 64.5 13.1 – Net Position: -474,039 706,436 -232,397 – Gross Longs: 275,611 3,163,442 267,288 – Gross Shorts: 749,650 2,457,006 499,685 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 17.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -45.1 27.8 8.1   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -365,783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -80,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -285,092 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.5 77.5 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.2 62.0 14.3 – Net Position: -365,783 585,754 -219,971 – Gross Longs: 397,091 2,925,060 319,742 – Gross Shorts: 762,874 2,339,306 539,713 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.7 95.0 27.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.5 5.8 11.0   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,543 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.9 74.3 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.4 65.8 18.3 – Net Position: 6,183 113,368 -119,551 – Gross Longs: 199,058 992,920 124,560 – Gross Shorts: 192,875 879,552 244,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.4 76.0 43.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 2.5 36.5   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,738 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 72.8 13.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 70.2 16.0 – Net Position: -4,529 28,819 -24,290 – Gross Longs: 120,945 810,886 154,016 – Gross Shorts: 125,474 782,067 178,306 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.8 29.3 33.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.4 -9.9 -9.3   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -335,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -334,381 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.2 80.0 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 56.4 9.6 – Net Position: -335,261 297,953 37,308 – Gross Longs: 79,120 1,012,450 159,109 – Gross Shorts: 414,381 714,497 121,801 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.4 60.8 55.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.3 -2.0 0.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the jump in bullish bets in the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators increased their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and by a total of +63,801 contracts over this four-week time-frame. This bullishness has taken the Real speculator level from -13,353 net positions on February 1st to +50,448 net positions this week. The current overall speculator standing has now climbed to the most bullish level on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to the mid-1990’s and eclipsing the previous high set in 2017. The BRLUSD currency pair price has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year and has reached the highest levels since June just below the 0.2000 exchange rate. The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (26,003 contracts), Mexican peso (25,553 contracts), Euro (5,633 contracts), British pound sterling (5,472 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,887 contracts), Australian dollar (5,744 contracts) and Bitcoin (363 contracts). The currencies with lower speculator bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,310 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,545 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,261 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,621 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-9,843 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,651 82 34,774 86 -39,391 9 4,617 67 EUR 719,975 91 64,939 55 -95,105 49 30,166 24 GBP 211,869 46 -337 74 14,129 38 -13,792 27 JPY 208,629 61 -68,732 25 79,535 76 -10,803 27 CHF 47,273 24 -15,248 43 20,862 54 -5,614 47 CAD 143,507 26 14,140 61 -21,586 42 7,446 45 AUD 189,667 75 -78,336 12 87,737 84 -9,401 30 NZD 50,389 44 -14,172 47 16,090 55 -1,918 30 MXN 154,664 28 42,378 45 -45,811 54 3,433 58 RUB 24,753 11 9,674 36 -9,068 65 -606 18 BRL 94,577 100 24,445 74 -27,081 25 2,636 97 Bitcoin 9,980 51 80 99 -517 0 437 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,084 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 8.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.9 78.1 2.3 – Net Position: 34,774 -39,391 4,617 – Gross Longs: 43,761 4,831 5,942 – Gross Shorts: 8,987 44,222 1,325 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 9.1 67.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 5.0 -14.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,306 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.7 54.2 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 67.4 7.5 – Net Position: 64,939 -95,105 30,166 – Gross Longs: 228,385 390,260 84,321 – Gross Shorts: 163,446 485,365 54,155 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.9 48.8 24.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.4 -12.6 7.1   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,809 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 62.1 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 55.4 17.2 – Net Position: -337 14,129 -13,792 – Gross Longs: 47,679 131,583 22,551 – Gross Shorts: 48,016 117,454 36,343 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 38.0 27.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 6.7 -23.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -68,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,187 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 80.3 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 42.2 15.9 – Net Position: -68,732 79,535 -10,803 – Gross Longs: 14,665 167,605 22,407 – Gross Shorts: 83,397 88,070 33,210 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 75.7 26.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -10.0 17.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -15,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,987 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.5 74.1 21.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.7 30.0 33.3 – Net Position: -15,248 20,862 -5,614 – Gross Longs: 1,651 35,045 10,127 – Gross Shorts: 16,899 14,183 15,741 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.3 54.3 46.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 8.0 -7.7   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,253 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.5 40.1 21.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 55.2 16.3 – Net Position: 14,140 -21,586 7,446 – Gross Longs: 50,881 57,576 30,817 – Gross Shorts: 36,741 79,162 23,371 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.4 42.2 44.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -5.4 2.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -78,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,080 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.7 80.1 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.0 33.8 15.4 – Net Position: -78,336 87,737 -9,401 – Gross Longs: 12,720 151,922 19,865 – Gross Shorts: 91,056 64,185 29,266 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.2 84.4 29.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.4 -8.0 1.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,551 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 72.1 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 40.2 9.1 – Net Position: -14,172 16,090 -1,918 – Gross Longs: 10,485 36,326 2,665 – Gross Shorts: 24,657 20,236 4,583 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.5 55.2 29.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 8.4 4.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 42,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,825 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.5 46.9 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.1 76.5 1.9 – Net Position: 42,378 -45,811 3,433 – Gross Longs: 74,971 72,497 6,306 – Gross Shorts: 32,593 118,308 2,873 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.4 53.7 57.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.0 -16.0 3.7   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 40.2 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 68.9 2.0 – Net Position: 24,445 -27,081 2,636 – Gross Longs: 51,990 38,039 4,541 – Gross Shorts: 27,545 65,120 1,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.4 24.7 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.7 -37.1 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,517 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 51.9 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 88.5 5.9 – Net Position: 9,674 -9,068 -606 – Gross Longs: 11,050 12,848 855 – Gross Shorts: 1,376 21,916 1,461 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.3 64.8 18.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -4.2 -39.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 80 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.0 3.2 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.2 8.4 7.6 – Net Position: 80 -517 437 – Gross Longs: 7,981 321 1,198 – Gross Shorts: 7,901 838 761 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.7 0.0 22.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -39.7 -3.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Now is the time for traders to adapt to higher volatility and rapidly changing market conditions. One of the best ways to do this is to monitor different asset classes and track which investments are gaining and losing money flow. Knowing what the Best Asset Now is (BAN) is critical for consistent growth no matter the market condition.With that said, buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat, for example, gained more than 40% last week.‘Panic Commodity Buying’ in Wheat – Weekly ChartAccording to the US Dept. of Agriculture, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of rice and 51% of wheat by mid-2022.Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Global commodities, commodity funds, and commodity ETFs are attracting huge capital inflows as investors seek to cash in on the rally in oil, metals, and grains.How does the Russia – Ukraine war affect global food supplies?The conflict between major commodity producers Russia and Ukraine is causing countries that rely heavily on commodity imports to feed their citizens to enter into panic buying. The breadbaskets of Ukraine and Russia account for more than 25% of the global wheat trade and nearly 20% of the global corn trade.Last week, it was reported that many countries have dangerously low grain supplies. Nader Saad, an Egypt Cabinet spokesman, has raised the alarm that currently, Egypt has only nine months’ worth of wheat in silos. The supply includes five months of strategic reserves and four months of domestic production to cover the bread needs of 102 million Egyptians. Additionally, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s economic minister, said on Thursday (3/3/22) that his country should keep “a low profile” regarding the conflict in eastern Europe, given that Israel imports 50 percent of its wheat from Russia and 30 percent from Ukraine.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The longer-term potential for much higher grain prices exists, but it’s worth noting that Friday’s close of nearly $12.00 a bushel for wheat is not that far away from the all-time record high of $13.30, recorded 14-years ago. According to Trading Economics, wheat has gone up 75.08% year-to-date while other commodity markets like Oats are up a whopping 85.13%, Coffee 74.68%, and Corn 34.07%.How are other markets reacting to these global events?Year-to-date comparison returns as of 3/4/2022:-9.18% S&P 500 (index), -7.49% DJI (index), -15.21% Nasdaq (index), +37.44% Exxon Mobile (oil), +20.08% Freeport McMoran (copper & gold), -20.68% Tesla (alternative energy), -24.49% Microstrategy (bitcoin play), -40.51% Meta-Facebook (social media)As stock holdings and 401k’s are shrinking it may be time to re-evaluate your portfolio. There are ETFs available that can give you exposure to commodities, energy, and metals.Here is an example of a few of these ETFs:+53.81% WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund+41.79% GSG iShares S&P TSCI Commodity -Indexed Trust+104.40 UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil+59.32% PALL Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium SharesHow is the global investor reacting to rocketing commodity prices and increasing market volatility?We can track global money flow by monitoring the following 1-month currency graph (www.finviz.com). The Australian Dollar is up +4.25%, the New Zealand Dollar +3.72%, and the Canadian Dollar +0.30% vs. the US Dollar due to the rising commodity prices like metals and energy. These country currencies are known as commodity currencies.The Switzerland Franc +0.96%, the Japanese Yen +0.35%, and the US Dollar +0.00% are all benefiting from global capital seeking a safe haven. As volatility continues to spike, these country currencies will experience more inflows as capital comes out of depreciating assets and seeks stability.We also notice that capital outflow is occurring from the European Union-Eurodollar -4.55% and the British Pound -2.22% due to their close proximity (risk) to the Russia - Ukraine war.www.finviz.comGlobal central banks will need to begin raising their interest rates to combat high inflation!Due to the rapid acceleration of inflation, the US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting two weeks from now. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16.What strategies can help you navigate current market trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals are starting to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell 1,310 contracts last week. This change is the result of 35 contracts increase in long positions and a 1,345 contracts increase in short positions. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, and the Canadian dollar. Decreases in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc.   Following Russia's invasion to Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. This means that especially the euro and the pound are weakening. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are strengthening due to rising prices of commodities that these countries export. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish         Total change 28093 16484 -23871 40355     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 64,939 contracts last week, which is an increase by 5,633 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 14,190 contracts and an increase in short positions by 8,557 contracts. These data suggest continued bullish sentiment in the euro. Open interest, which has increased by 23,293 contracts in the last week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and is therefore strong. The euro is weakening sharply under the influence of the war in Ukraine and we can see that support levels have not been respected in such a strong trend. In a strong downtrend it is very risky to try to catch the bottom and open bullish long positions.  Long-term resistance: 1.0980 – 1.1010. Next resistance is near 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.0640-1.0700 The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish         Total change 28635 7919 8009 -90     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to -337 contracts, having increased by 5,472 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,430 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 42 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment, but it is weak as the total net positions of large speculators increased. Open interest, which rose by 23,426 contracts last week, means that the fall in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and is therefore strong. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound as well as the euro and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Long-term resistance: 1.3270-1.3300.  Next resistance is near 1.3420 – 1.3440. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3150 – 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish         Total change 8531 3669 -6449 10118     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to - 78,336 contracts, up by 5,744 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 1,167 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,577 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. However, last week we saw a decline in open interest by 2,912 contracts. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week in the AUDUSD was weak because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar has been strengthening strongly recently, which is explained by the rise in the prices of commodities that Australia exports. These commodities include coal, gas and gold.  Long-term resistance: 0.7520-0.7560                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish         Total change 5662 -1127 4714 -5841     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1     The total net positions of speculators last week reached a value of - 14,172 contracts, having fallen by 2,621 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,858 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,237 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the NZD continues. Last week, open interest fell significantly by 6,247 contracts. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week is not supported by volume and therefore the price action was weak. The strengthening of the NZDUSD that occurred last week is somewhat surprising given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and risk off sentiment. What helped the NZD rise are rising prices of commodities  such as milk, which New Zealand produces. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6890 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

  The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next? A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown. On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role. US Dollar Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) On the geopolitical scene, Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be resumed today in Brest (Belarus) at 14:00 GMT, while another meeting is already scheduled at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Thursday in Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba will talk there in the presence of the Turkish foreign minister. We might therefore expect some de-escalation in the Black Sea basin this week if the two parties involved were able to reach an agreement after further negotiations. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2022 report, suggesting that even with non-hydro renewable sources set to rapidly grow through 2050, oil and gas-derived sources should still remain the top energy sources to fuel most of the United States. The agency is forecasting a rise in the production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – which mainly comes from shale gas – by at least 35%! In summary, the threat of sanctions has already wiped out almost all Russian oil – at least 7% of global supply – from the world oil market. In the weeks or months to come, we can see sanctions on Russian oil exports create a boomerang effect on European economies, decreasing world market supply, increasing prices for industry, as well as even more rising expenses, and thus cost of living through a ripple effect. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Brent oil is trading near $125 - in the 2011 and 2012 highs area. The market continues to receive pretty bullish comments from politicians and officials. However, traders seemed set to pause to digest current price levels after a frightening rally to $129 at one point on Monday, reacting to reports that the US and allies are weighing a ban on Russian oil and gas imports. In Russia, Novak (a former energy minister and co-founder of OPEC+ deals) points out that the oil embargo will push prices into the $300 a barrel area. Probably, this forecast is based on a comparison of the current situation with the OPEC embargo in late 1972, when the price soared 3-4 times within a few weeks. The International Energy Agency's executive director said the Oil can still move higher from current levels. Officially, Russia is not refusing to export Oil and Gas, but local companies have recently failed to sell Oil because of a buyers' boycott or fears of being hit by US and EU sanctions. Shell's just-announced refusal to buy all Russian Oil is doing little to bring down the commodity price. With this news backdrop, Oil is getting support on the downside in the $115 area, where last week's highs were located. It will take a lot more political will to reverse the trend in Oil. Also, the chances of Oil from Iran to make up for the drop-offs are somewhat thawed, as the president has said that Tehran will not give up its red lines. Iran would logically be expected to use the situation to bargain for better terms on a deal with the West. The same applies to Venezuela, where US representatives have headed to secure a rise in global production. Will the countries previously most disadvantaged by US sanctions use the momentum to ramp up production? That question is not yet answered. Likely, we should expect price rises to accelerate in the coming days before the situation reverses into a constructive direction and prices head for a correction.

While the world discusses the prospect of an embargo on Russian oil and gas, the absolute madness is in metals. In many of them, Russia has a pretty significant share, and investors fear a ban on exports could be Russia’s response to sanctions, on a par with restricting supplies of agricultural products. Palladium set a new all-time high at $3439 on Monday, gaining 14.8% on the day at one point. Nickel reached $100,000/tonne, gaining more than 200% over the two days, but soon retreated to $82,000 (+71% since the start of the day). Aluminum reached $4000 per tonne on Monday, compared with stabilization at $2600 from November to mid-December. Copper exceeded $10800/tonne yesterday, rewriting its historic high. Still, if we apply ‘peacetime’ patterns, we can see short-squeezes and a final capitulation by the bears in one metal after another. A reversal usually follows this. Copper and palladium have been sliding hard after making new all-time highs, and we’re now seeing a distinct tug-of-war between the buyers and the sellers, at an impressive distance from yesterday’s extremes. Nickel is retracing a sharp bounce today. The troy ounce reached $2020 earlier on Tuesday, having hit new highs since August 2020. The momentum in gold gained new strength after restrictions from cryptocurrency exchanges for Russian residents. But here, too, it is worth betting with great caution on the upside, as there will be a big seller entering the market. The Bank of Russia, for the most part, has no other means but to sell off the gold from its reserves in Russia. These steps could be taken tomorrow, as Monday and Tuesday were national holidays. Those actions will keep the price of gold on the way to the all-time highs near $2075, where it could be as early as this week. However, the chances are higher that more sellers will enter into gold, which will cool the current rally, temporarily correcting the price into the $1960-2000 area before the end of March.

The British pound was down to a 16-month low at 1.3080 in the morning, having lost 2% last Thursday. The pressure on the British currency looks to be developing capital outflows from Europe on speculation that reduced energy and materials supplies from Russia will prove to be a shock to the region's economy in the near term. In addition, the British pound was probably influenced by technical factors yesterday and today. The single currency has been sharply oversold in recent days and the EURGBP approach of 0.8200 on Monday morning triggered a strong wave of buying, bringing the pair back above 0.8310. On Monday, the euro got visible support against a wide range of other currencies, from the Swiss franc to the New Zealand dollar. Interest in the euro was also supported on Tuesday by a rally in equities on EU plans to issue joint bonds. But these are also good fundamentals for the British currency, which often directly correlates to the stock market. Short-term, relatively strong oversold conditions in the British currency creates the potential for a technical bounce in the coming days and in the area of 1.30-1.31 to stop its decline, gaining strong buy support until the end of the week and further heading to 1.3350 by the end of the month.

The Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, has warned about the role of cryptocurrencies in allowing Russian sanctions evasion.

  Gold has hit $2,000 but is still struggling to maintain that historical level. It has already tried 8 times - will the ninth attempt succeed? Many indications make this doubtful. Gold is attempting to break above the $2,000 milestone, and miners are trying to break above their declining resistance line. Will they manage to do so, and if so, how long will the rally last? Yesterday, gold didn’t manage to close above the $2,000 level and it’s making another attempt to rally above it in today’s pre-market trading. However, will it be successful? Given the RSI above 70 and the strength of the current resistance, it’s doubtful. In fact, nothing has changed with regard to this likelihood since yesterday, so what I wrote about it in the previous Gold & Silver Trading Alert remains up-to-date: Gold touched $2,000 in today’s pre-market trading, which is barely above its 2021 high and below its 2020 high. Crude oil is way above both analogous levels. In other words, gold underperforms crude oil to a significant extent, just like in 2003. Interestingly, back in 2003, gold topped when crude oil rallied about 40% from its short-term lows (the late-2002 low). What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks. That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. Back in 2003, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more. Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet. However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold. The above chart features the GDXJ ETF. As you can see, the junior miners moved to their very strong resistance provided by the declining resistance line. This resistance is further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the previous (late-2021) high. This means that it’s particularly strong, and any breakout here would likely be invalidated shortly. Given the clear sell signal from the RSI indicator, a turnaround here is even more likely. I marked the previous such signals to emphasize their efficiency. When the RSI was above 70, a top was in 6 out of 7 of the recent cases, and the remaining case was shortly before the final top, anyway. This resistance seems to be analogous to the $2,000 level in gold. By the way, please note that gold tried to break above $2,000 several times: twice in August 2020; twice in September 2020 (once moving above it, once moving just near this level); once in November 2020 (moving near this level); once in January 2021 (moving near this level); once in February 2022 (moving near this level). These attempts failed in each of the 7 cases mentioned above. This is the eight attempt. Will this very strong resistance break this time? Given how much crude oil has already soared, and how both markets used to react to war tensions in the case of oil-producing countries, it seems that the days of the rally are numbered. Moving back to the GDXJ ETF, please note that while gold is moving close to its all-time highs, the junior miners are not doing anything like that. In fact, they barely moved slightly above their late-2021 high. They are not even close to their 2021 high, let alone their 2020 high. Instead, junior mining stocks are just a bit above their early-2020 high, from which their prices were more than cut in half in less than a month. In other words, junior miners strongly underperform gold, which is a bearish sign. When gold finally declines – and it’s likely to, as geopolitical events tend to have only a temporary effect on prices, even if they’re substantial – junior miners will probably slide much more than gold. One of the reasons is the likely decline in the general stock market. I recently received a question about the impact the general stock market has on mining stocks, as the latter moved higher despite stocks’ decline in recent weeks. So, let’s take a look at a chart that will feature junior mining stocks, the GLD ETF, and the S&P 500 Index. Before the Ukraine crisis, the link between junior miners and the stock market was clear. Now, it's not as clear, but it’s still present. Juniors only moved to their late-2021 highs, while gold is over $100 above those highs. Juniors underperform significantly, in tune with the stock market's weakness. The gold price is still the primary driver of mining stock prices – including junior mining stocks. After all, that’s what’s either being sold by the company (that produces gold) or in the properties that the company owns and explores (junior miners). As gold prices exploded in the last couple of weeks, junior miners practically had to follow. However, this doesn’t mean that the stock market’s influence is not present nor that it’s going to be unimportant going forward. Conversely, the weak performance of the general stock market likely contributed to junior miners’ weakness relative to gold – the former didn’t rally as much as the latter. Since the weakness in the general stock market is likely to continue, and gold’s rally is likely to be reversed (again, what happened in the case of other military conflicts is in tune with history, not against it), junior miners are likely to decline much more profoundly than gold. Speaking of the general stock market, it just closed at the lowest level since mid-2021. The key thing about the above chart is that what we’ve seen this year is the biggest decline since 2020, and the size of the recent slide is comparable to what we saw as the initial wave down in 2020 – along with the subsequent correction. If these moves are analogous, the recent rebound was perfectly normal – there was one in early 2020 too. This also means that a much bigger decline is likely in the cards in the coming weeks, and that it’s already underway. This would be likely to have a very negative impact on the precious metals market, in particular on junior mining stocks (initially) and silver (a bit later). All in all, it seems that due to the technical resistance in gold and mining stocks, the sizable – but likely temporary (like other geopolitical-event-based-ones) – rally is likely to be reversed shortly. Then, as the situation in the general stock market deteriorates, junior miners would be likely to plunge in a spectacular manner. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Boeing stock falls as Russian raw material supplies are likely to be in short supply. Boeing earlier said it was suspending buying Russian titanium. BA stocks fell over 6% on Monday as main indices fell over 3%. Boeing (BA) stock slipped on Monday, even disproportionally versus the main market. While the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell in the region of 3% to 4%, Boeing underperformed as it fell just under 6.5%. Boeing Stock News Monday's move took Boeing stock to new 52-week lows as the stock remains pressured in the current risk-off environment. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Boeing had suspended purchases of titanium from Russia as the company felt it had enough supply from other sources. “Our inventory and diversity of titanium sources provide sufficient supply for airplane production, and we will continue to take the right steps to ensure long-term continuity,” a Boeing spokeswoman told WSJ. Also on Monday Cowen & Co. lowered their price target for Boeing from $265 to $230. Cowen maintained their outperform rating on Boeing. Breaking Defense had last week reported that Air Force One's replacement was running up to 17 months late, according to two sources. Boeing is the supplier of Air Force One. Boeing will also likely feel headwinds from the current surge in oil prices. While not directly affected, higher oil prices will flow through to higher airfares and a likely reduction in passenger demand. This would see a knock-on but delayed demand for additional planes affecting Boeing and its main competitor, Airbus. However, Boeing does have a large military division. At the end of 2021 the Boeing Defence, Space & Security division accounted for over 33% of total Boeing revenues. The US Department of Defense is the top customer of this division. Boeing Stock Forecast Breaking the 52-week low is significant, and from the weekly chart below we can see how Boeing failed to regain its pre-pandemic levels. This should have been setting off alarm bells as stocks and indices reached all-time highs. The aerospace sector was a special case, but technically this was a bearish signal. BA stock chart, weekly The daily chart outlines the series of bearish lower lows and highs. Any rally to $185 can be used to instigate fresh bearish positions. BA stock chart, daily

Bitcoin price action sees bulls storming out of the gate, with BTC bouncing off a $38,073 historical pivot. BTC price set to tick $39,780 intraday in a range-trading profile. Expect to see more upside, should BTC continue its rally from positive signals out of Ukraine, and punch through the 55-day SMA. Bitcoin price action is back on the front foot today as global markets surf positive news of a ceasefire and fresh round of talks between Russia and Ukraine. The lift in positive sentiment spilled over into cryptocurrencies and saw positive prints across the board. Bitcoin was no different, with the price up 2.30% for the day at the time of writing and a possible tick of over 4% profit going into the U.S. session this evening. Bitcoin sees bulls taking over in ceasefire setback for bears Bitcoin price action is whipsawing between $45,000 to the upside and $34,000 to the downside, in a bandwidth that has been drawn since January. With global markets remaining stressed and on edge, today is set to give a sigh of relief and blow off some steam out of the pressure cooker that is Ukraine. Expect to see further decompression going into the U.S. session as this positive news gets picked up and translated into another round of bullish uplift for the cryptocurrency. BTC price is set to tick $39,780 and will try to break the high of last weekend. But bulls will immediately face another level of resistance, with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $40,250, and the $40,000 level in the way. Add to that the monthly pivot at $41,000 – so within a $1,000 – and there are three bearish elements capable of cutting short any attempts for further upside if no additional relief catalysts are added to the current headlines. BTC/USD daily chart Over the weekend, a ceasefire was already tried but failed after just a few minutes. Should that be the case again, expect this to break the fragile trust that has been in place now since recent talks yesterday. Expect BTC price action to be pushed back to $38,073 a drop of around 4%.

Senator Warren says the bill will help make sure Russia can't use cryptocurrency to evade sanctions.

  Russian forces have made minimal progress against Ukraine in recent days. Unlike the invader, gold rallied very quickly and achieved its long-awaited target - $2000! Nobody expected the Russian inquisition! Nobody expected such a fierce Ukrainian defense, either. Of course, the situation is still very dramatic. Russian troops continued their offensive and – although the pace slowed down considerably – they managed to make some progress, especially in southern Ukraine, by bolstering air defense and supplies. The invaders are probably preparing for the decisive assault on Kyiv. Where Russian soldiers can’t break the defense, they bomb civilian infrastructure and attack ordinary people, including targeting evacuation corridors, to spread terror. Several Ukrainian cities are besieged and their inhabitants lack basic necessities. The humanitarian crisis intensifies. However, Russian forces made minimal ground advances over recent days, and it’s highly unlikely that Russia has successfully achieved its planned objectives to date. According to the Pentagon, nearly all of the Russian troops that were amassed on Ukraine’s border are already fighting inside the country. Meanwhile, the international legion was formed and started its fight for Ukraine. Moreover, Western countries have recently supplied Ukraine with many hi-tech military arms and equipment, including helicopters, anti-tank weapons, and anti-aircraft missiles, which could be crucial in boosting the Ukrainian defense.   Implications for Gold What does the war in Ukraine imply for the precious metals? Well, gold is shining almost as brightly as the Ukrainian defense. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has surged above $1,980 on Monday (March 7, 2022), the highest level since August 2020. What’s more, as the next chart shows, during today’s early trading, gold has soared above $2,020 for a while, reaching almost an all-time high. In my most recent report, I wrote: “as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine (…). The continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices.” This is exactly what we’ve been observing. This is not surprising. The war has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, while investors have become more risk-averse and have continued selling equities. As you can see in the chart below, the S&P 500 Index has plunged more than 12% since its peak in early January. Some of the released funds went to the gold market. What’s more, the credit spreads have widened, while the real interest rates have declined. Both these trends are fundamentally positive for the yellow metal. Another bullish driver of gold prices is inflation. It’s already high, and the war in Ukraine will only add to the upward pressure. The oil price has jumped above $120 per barrel, almost reaching a record peak. Higher energy prices would translate into higher CPI readings in the near future. Other commodities are also surging. For example, the Food Price Index calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has soared above 140 in February, which is a new all-time high, as the chart below shows. Higher commodity prices could lead to social unrest, as was the case with the Arab Spring or recent protests in Kazakhstan. Higher energy prices and inflation imply slower real GDP growth and more stagflationary conditions. As a reminder, in 2008 we saw rapidly rising commodities, which probably contributed to the Great Recession. In such an environment, it’s far from clear that the Fed will be very hawkish. It will probably hike the federal funds rate in March, as expected, but it may soften its stance later amid the conflict between Ukraine and the West with Russia and elevated geopolitical risks. The more dovish Fed should also be supportive of gold prices. However, when the fighting cools off, the fear will subside, and we could see a correction in the gold market. Both sides are exhausted by the conflict and don’t want to continue it forever. The Russian side has already softened its stance a bit during the most recent round of negotiations, as it probably realized that a military breakthrough was unlikely. Hence, when the conflict ends, gold’s current tailwind could turn into a headwind. Having said that, the impact of the conflict may not be as short-lived this time. I'm referring to the relatively harsh sanctions and high energy prices that may last for some time after the war is over. . The same applies to a more hawkish stance toward Russia and European governments’ actions to become less dependent on Russian gas and oil. A lot depends on how the conflict will be resolved, and whether it brings us Cold War 2.0. However, two things are certain: the world has already changed geopolitically, and at the beginning of this new era, the fundamental outlook for gold has turned more bullish than before the war. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

USDJPY breaks higherThe Japanese yen softened after weaker-than-expected GDP in Q4. Despite choppiness in recent price action, confidence in the greenback remains high.A failed attempt at the supply zone (115.80) suggests a lack of momentum, but a swift bounce off 114.65 reveals strong enough buying interest.A bullish breakout would lead to the double top at 116.35. Its breach could end the two-month-long consolidation and trigger an extended rally towards January 2017’s highs around 118.00. 115.40 is fresh support.AUDUSD seeks supportThe Australian dollar stalls as commodity prices consolidate. The rally above 0.7310, a major supply area, has weakened selling pressure and put the pair on a bullish reversal course.The Aussie’s parabolic ascent and an overbought RSI prompted short-term buyers to take profit. As the RSI swings back into the oversold zone, the bulls may see the current fallback as an opportunity to stake in.0.7380 is a fresh resistance and 0.7250 is the immediate support. Further below 0.7170 is a critical level to keep the rebound valid.UK 100 sees limited bounceThe FTSE 100 struggles as the UK plans to ban Russian energy imports.On the daily chart, a break below the demand zone (6850) wiped out 11-months worth of gains and signaled a strong bearish bias. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound, but a bearish MA cross could attract more selling interest.The liquidation is yet to end as medium-term buyers scramble for the exit. 7200 is a fresh resistance and 7450 is a major supply zone. A drop below 6800 may lead to 6500.

Today, Crypto markets continue to see plenty of fresh demand, taking this week’s fightback to two days. Strong buying is a good turn for holders and buyers as price has been beaten down in recent weeks due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. For many coins, yesterday’s finish was far from confident, but that’s a memory at this point today with quite a modest double-digit percentage gains at the moment. The top 10 and 25 are all in the mix, and the indexes of those coins are a healthy +6% higher. One might have been a little worried about external factors like Bidens crypto executive order and the ongoing conflict in Europe. Biden is set to release the order this week, and traders will be watching with interest in the details and how it could change the way the U.S. treats digital assets. Today we are looking at two of the top 20. These two coins are favourites of the market but not in the top five. Solana SOLUSD – currently price is trading 8% higher back above $88. For now, buyer momentum looks firm, and we need to see price hold above 80.60 support. This is the base of our expectations on the buy-side, and a break below that level writes off the other patterns we are watching. Overall, we can see that price is in a descending triangle pattern and an ending diagonal pattern. Both of these can be seen as breakout patterns if confirmed by a new move out of them. But we have to see support hold. Avalanche AVAXUSD is one of my favourite coins just due to how much it can move. It reminds me of some of the wilder FX and index markets. AVAX has traded as much as 9.88% higher, retaking $79. AVAX, like SOL has key support to defend, but we can see a break of the downtrend with a range in play and a new uptrend continuing to set up. We want to see 71.10 remain in play as support. A break below changes the picture, but while this level remains held, we will look for further upside. 85.55 looks like the next level of resistance if reached. The post Crypto Update: Buyers Return, Solana Avalanche focus appeared first on Eightcap.

The Russian rouble remains under pressure, while all the new controls on currency transactions in Russia are alienating the exchange rate at home and on global FX. The 12% commission on currency purchases explains the difference between the external and domestic exchange rates. That said, one must realise that "catching the bottom" of the ruble is hardly wise when new sanctions are imposed almost on a daily basis. The economic landslide continues with extreme speed. Across the other EM markets, there is a concern or even pessimism about the medium-term outlook, and some relative easing of the fear level is striking in the stock markets today. Commodity markets, which continued their move towards new extremes yesterday, have encountered substantial selling, which continues today. Some reduction in the excitement can be attributed to hopes of progress towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Nevertheless, the conditions already prevailing in commodity markets are putting serious pressure on EM equities and currencies. EM populations are more vulnerable to soaring basic food and energy prices and currencies to capital outflows due to flight to safety. All of this is tightening financial conditions is undermining the economic recovery that investors had hoped for at the start of the year because of the retreat of the pandemic. While the end of last year and the beginning of this one were sentiments that growth momentum was shifting from the US to Europe and emerging markets, events in recent weeks have not only returned EM markets to the downward trend but again show that US markets are the best refuge for capital. For example, Chinese indices are losing 35% (Hang Seng) to 43% (China H-star) from their February 2021 peak. And this trend will not quickly reverse even if the military conflict in Eastern Europe ends right now because economic and reputational damage has already been done, which will take months or even years to undo.

A barrel of Oil on the spot market briefly topped $130 for Brent and $125 for WTI, having retreated to $127 and $121, respectively, by the start of European trading. Oil received its latest boost on expectations that the US will announce an embargo on Russian energy imports. Traders took short-term profits on Biden's speech, which kept Oil from rising further. On the sellers' side was also news that the UK was unable to repeat the US move and is instead set to halt energy imports from Russia before the end of the year. Biden also noted that many European countries would not be able to stop buying Russian Oil and Gas any time soon because of their heavy reliance on them.The latest comments have somewhat dampened pressure on the Oil price, as have earlier International Energy Agency calculations on ways to reduce Europe's energy consumption from Russia by up to 80% as early as this year. Such plans often over-idealise the possibility of a coordinated effort, but their mere appearance has a stabilising effect on the market. For its part, Russia has also worked to prove its role as a reliable energy supplier, loading Crude Oil at ports in line with the schedule.Nevertheless, markets continue to face an increased risk premium, and Russian Oil struggles to find new buyers. The UAE and Saudi Arabia try to use the situation to their advantage, refusing to cooperate with the US to increase oil supplies. Iran is haggling for more favourable terms on the nuclear deal. Russia, the architect of the deal, has suddenly become an obstacle to it, demanding legal guarantees from the US that sanctions will not affect Russian-Iranian trade, thereby trying to thwart the US attempts to increase oil supply in countries where US sanctions limit production.We would venture to guess that all existing conditions are already built into the Oil quotes, and its price is now near a ceiling for the coming weeks and months. From here, we could see the establishment of a fairly broad corridor of $95-130 per barrel for Brent for the foreseeable future. This is a vast range, reflecting the outlook's persistence of extreme volatility and extreme uncertainty.

European stock markets started the day trading higher following a mixed Asian session which saw Nikkei drop 0.3% while S&P/ASX 200 gained 1% and as indices from China plunged and finished 1.7-5.0% lower. Meanwhile, the United States announced a total ban on Russian oil, natural gas and coal with the United Kingdom announcing that it will phase out Russian oil in the coming months. In response, Putin signed a decree banning exports of certain commodities from Russia and investors await the announcement within days to determine the potential impact on markets. Furthemore, a growing number of companies have announced their withdrawal from or suspension of services in Russia with McDonald's, Starbucks and Coca-Cola being the latest to make such announcements and isolating the country economically even more. While this rebound may encourage investors and increase confidence in the market, it is essential to keep in mind that any major news related to the ongoing conflict could have wide repercussions and may shake the extremely fragile market sentiment. Crypto markets rebound as sentiment improves ahead of Biden executive orderCryptocurrencies appeared to show signs of strength in the Asian session which have continued at the start of the European trading session with Bitcoin gaining over 8% and trading around $42,000, the highest level in a week. The crypto market cap is up over 6% today and has returned to around $1.85 Trillion after several days of uncertainty which followed the surge in demand seen at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that was sparked by significant interest from people of that region as they attempted to seek refuge from the collapsing economy and currency. As has been the case in the past, Bitcoin and Ethereum appear to be dragging the rest of the market with the majority of alt-coins also adding to their gains despite generally lagging slightly behind the majors. Furthermore, US president Biden is expected to make an announcement today regarding an executive order on cryptocurrencies that may pave the way for a broader adoption of digital assets and boost investor confidence in the relatively new asset class. While details of this announcement remain unclear, any sign of regulation or mainstream adoption could prove to be a catalyst for a major move across the crypto markets thanks to the influx of new money of both retail and institutional investors.

Political events in Russia and the U.S. could be behind the swift rise in privacy-preserving cryptocurrencies.

To minimize trading risk and grow capital during a global crisis is somewhat hinged on the answers to speculative questions. How long will the Russia – Ukraine war last? How high is the price of oil and gas going to go? How quickly will central banks raise interest rates to counter high inflation? What assets should I put my money into? Knowing what the Best Asset Now (BAN) is, is critical for risk management and consistent growth no matter the market condition!‘BUY THE DIP’ or ‘SELL THE RALLY’? - DJI Weekly ChartAs of 3/8/22, YTD returns are: DJIA -10.20%, S&P 500 -12.49%, Nasdaq 100 -18.70%The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded as high as 36952.65 on January 5, 2022The DJIA put in a Covid 2020 Low of 18213.65 on March 23, 2020. When you double the price of this significant low, you get a price of 36427.30, which the DJIA reached on November 4, 2021. This was precisely 591 calendar days from the 2020 low. The 200% level seems to have capped the bull rally. If, in fact, this is the top and the start of a bear market, we should experience high volatility both up and down. However, the highs and lows should be lower as the market begins to trend lower. The volatility will also continue to increase as the market deflates and continues to lose capital.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! It appears this scenario may very well coincide with the fundamental current events of high inflation, central banks unable to add stimulus, having to raise their interest rates, and current/future geopolitical events.What-To-Do Before the Storm Hits“Have A Plan and Stick-To-Your-Plan”There are some basic strategies or practices that professional traders utilize to minimize trading risk and grow capital. Here are a few ideas:Bull/Bear Markets – In an upmarket, you should buy the dips. In a down market, you should do the opposite and sell the rallies. Rallies in a down 'bear' market tend to be very fast and short-lived.Diversification – Don't have your eggs in too many baskets. It is better to navigate thru a storm by focusing your resources specifically rather than generally.Leverage – Reduce leverage, position size, or know how you will respond to different percentage losses or gains. Understand what your investment objective is as well as your tolerance for risk. If you're having trouble sleeping at night, you should reduce your holdings to the place where you are comfortable.Leverage is a mathematical equation, and it does not have to be 1x, 2x, etc. It can also be 0.75x, 0.50x, etc. You get to decide what's best for you and your family. Leverage is also a double-edged sword! Be careful, especially when the markets are on edge and volatile.Where is the Institutional Money Going?The global currency market, otherwise known as Forex or FX, is the largest market in the world. According to the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey, published on December 8, 2019, by the Bank for International Settlements, it has an average daily transactional volume of $6.6 trillion.By tracking global money flow, we can get a pretty good idea of where the smart money is going. For now, let’s see what has happened during the last 6-months.According to www.finviz.com, we notice that the US Dollar, despite its Covid stimulus spending spree, was the preferred currency. However, the Eurodollar has seen substantial outflows decreasing by -7.60%, which is entirely understandable with the Russia – Ukraine War at their doorstep.Global central banks ponder how quickly to raise interest rates in order to curb high inflation!According to TradingEconomics, the current global interest rates by major country are: United States 0.25%, Japan -0.10%, Switzerland -0.75%, Euro Region 0.00%, United Kingdom 0.50%, Canada 0.50%, and Australia 0.10%.The US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its next policy meeting. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16. We need to pay close attention to this high-impact market event.What strategies can help you minimize trading risk and grow capital?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Minimizing risk in order to grow your capital must remain a primary focus for all investors and traders. Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Better sounding newsflow regarding the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the Russo-Ukraine war is weighing heavily on crude oil. Talks between the Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers on Thursday will be key. WTI is currently down more than $7.50 as traders also mull a possible US/Iran nuclear deal and further reserve releases. A slightly more conciliatory tone to the rhetoric from Ukrainian and Russian officials regarding the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the war ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the two nations’ Foreign Ministers in Turkey has seen oil markets plunge. Russia said on Wednesday that “some progress” had been made with Ukraine and laid out a potential territorial compromise, while a Ukrainian official close to President Zelenskyy hinted that Russian demands for “neutrality” can be discussed. Front-month WTI futures have subsequently tanked nearly $6.50 per barrel on the session to near the $118 level, a near $12 turnaround from Tuesday’s highs near $130. Traders also said that markets were taking a more relaxed view on the US ban on Russian oil imports announced on Tuesday and that this was weighing on prices. “Theoretically, the US could even offset the outages from Russia with its own production,” said an analyst at Commerzbank. Elsewhere, some traders cited expectations for more oil reserve releases as triggering profit-taking after the head of the International Energy Agency hinted that last week’s decision by member nations to release 60M barrels could be the first of further releases. As oil traders continue to juggle numerous competing themes, choppy market conditions are likely here to stay for some time. With Iran’s chief negotiator in the nuclear talks having arrived back in Vienna on Wednesday to continue discussions, it may well be that a deal is imminent, despite recent concerns that the Russians were adding additional demands. A deal would pave the way for over 1.3M barrels in daily Iranian crude oil exports to return to global markets. In the more immediate future, focus will return to the global crude oil inventory situation with the release of weekly official US data at 1530GMT.

Russia's denial of wanting to overthrow Ukraine's government has boosted the market mood. Ongoing bombing, accusations of using biological weapons may come to haunt markets. The safe-haven dollar and gold have room to recover after the recent slide. All markets are saying, is give peace a chance – paraphrasing John Lennon's song, that is what is going on, with stocks and risk currencies rising while safe-haven assets are tumbling down. However, it may become worse before it becomes better. The latest bout of optimism stems from Russia's statement that it does not seek to overthrow Ukraine's government and its preference to resolve differences via discussions. The Kremlin added that it has never threatened and does not threaten NATO. These olive branches join Tuesday's news that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled he is willing to give up NATO membership and the upcoming meeting of the two countries foreign ministers planned for Thursday in Turkey. On the ground, a humanitarian ceasefire is in effect in several Ukrainian cities on Wednesday, and civilians are begin evacuated, so far safely. Markets have reacted positively to these developments, with S&P futures jumping by 2%, EUR/USD jumping by some 80 pips, and safe havens such as gold and the dollar suffering significant falls. Is the war nearing its end? Not so fast. Reasons to worry First, Russia continues bombing Kyiv and is likely using this day of relative calm to regroup and resupply its troops, which have suffered massive logistical failures. Several of the previous ceasefires were not respected and this may happen again. Secondly, Russia's statements are also one that the US has declared economic war on it. Such comments contradict the better vibes that have previously boosted the market mood. Russia also accuses its enemy of developing biological weapons, in what seems like an excuse to intensify attacks. Third, Ukrainian President Zelensky called on Russian troops to "surrender while you still can" and that "we will answer in full for all our killed people" – militant statements are not exclusive to one side. The war will eventually end, hopefully, sooner rather than later. However, it seems overoptimistic to circle Wednesday as the beginning of the end, and that everything improves from here. Another escalation may come shortly, souring the market mood and boosting the safe-haven gold and dollar. Moreover, with every day that passes, the damage to the global economy increases. While shortages of energy have yet to be seen – prices are rising without any stop in the flow of oil or gas – food issues may become a burden for the global economy. Russia and Ukraine produce a vast amount of wheat and barley, which are now blocked. That is already raising food prices. And while the war continues, so do new Western sanctions. The EU has approved a new list of restrictions on Russian leaders and oligarchs, and also disconnect several Belarusian banks from the SWIFT payments system. All in all, it will likely get worse before it becomes better and that means another rush to the dollar and gold.

Brent crude experienced its biggest intraday decline yesterday, losing more than $17 on the day to $110, with the range of movements on the spot market exceeding $26.The momentum of the decline was triggered by Blinken's (US Secretary of State) reports that the UAE was ready to ramp up its production, replacing Oil from Russia and stabilising the market. UAE officials soon said they remained committed to the current agreements. But this did not help Oil, which stabilised near levels a week ago. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have significant spare capacity to restore their production to pre-demand levels and even increase their global market share. At the same time, most OPEC representatives are not fully committed to their quotas. Iran and Venezuela have more options. Both countries are trying to use the situation to ease US sanctions pressure. Iran produces 2.3 million barrels per day, about half of pre-sanctions levels. Venezuela's production is around 0.8m BPD versus 3.1m BPD before the 2019 sanctions. Both countries can get 0.4m b/d back on the market quickly, but it will take a significant investment in the industry and a long time to grow after that. Caracas is already curtseying towards the US by releasing two prisoners. The US is lifting some sanctions on some Iranian politicians even before the deal is struck. These are signs of progress towards easing sanctions and a clear signal to Russia that the world is not so dependent on its energy. These are all signs favouring our idea that the peak of fear, and therefore oil prices, is over. Furthermore, Russia has not yet even gone so far as to threaten to halt exports as OPEC did in 1972. That said, military tensions and further restrictions on Russian oil and gas imports could trigger growth impulses, some of which could be strong. However, the oil price situation looks depleted. We are set to see either a consolidation around these levels in a pessimistic war scenario, or a correction to around $90 on progress in the peace talks and the start of a move to ease sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

What’s next for the GER30 (DAX) traders? Today we will take a look at the current price actions signs that we’re watching. Short-term traders could have been having a feat on the recent price moves with a 10% fall in the last five days and a 12% rally to this week’s high. It is that movement that has started to get our attention as we can now see a V pattern forming. V patterns can produce reversals, but we need to see buyers beat yesterday’s high to start getting any ideas of confirmation going. The DAX has been one of the main indexes severely beaten down after Russia invaded Ukraine. Many of its weight stocks were hit hard by worry over the future implications of a conflict in Europe and surging oil prices. Over 16% was wiped off the GER30 index in the last three weeks to its low. This week price made a strong fightback after crude prices plunged overnight, and on the news, Russia and Ukraine are looking to sit down for talks. Will the V confirm? A lot rests on the fundamentals driving price at the moment. Will we see a cease-fire that’s respected? Will this lead to oil continuing to retreat? We feel these are important factors to give buyers further confidence to take the market higher. Any flare-ups could set off new rounds of selling, which could set the V up to fail. GER30 D1 Chart The post CFD Update: Can the GER30 confirm the reversal pattern? appeared first on Eightcap.

The Russian rouble has been on the decline, trading around 120 per dollar on the Moscow Exchange and making historic lows almost daily. Despite ever-increasing capital controls, the Russian currency is still unable to find a bottom, as tighter controls are only further discouraging buyers of the rouble. It would be logical to expect the opposite effect from restrictive measures on the Russian population, as desperate attempts to limit currency purchases only increase the feeling that the government has no control over the situation. Remembering the hyperinflation of the early 1990s, ordinary Russians and businesses are looking at hard currency as a last resort to save liquidity for a rainy day. Recent data on consumer activity also showed a surge in buyers. The initial drivers were not the mass exodus of foreign brands from the Russian market but the desire to spend the rapidly depreciating roubles. By the end of this week, this trend promises to become stronger, fuelled by the severest restrictions on capital controls in recent history, which do not allow the legal exchange of rubles for currency. In such an environment, it is difficult to expect the rouble to find a foothold before all sanctions on Russia are announced, and capital controls turn towards easing or go into fine-tuning mode

The Summit is not the only one to follow tomorrow… as British officials begin the weekend very early in the morning by publishing Manufacturing Production and GDP related indicators. German economists and investors are probably going to follow the release of their country’s CPI. Great Britain Great Britain’s GDP indicators (YoY and MoM) are presented tomorrow at 7:00 a.m. Previously, Month-to-Month indicator amounted to -0.2% and Year-to-Year one hit 6.5%. At the same time there are two other important indicators released. We’re talking about Manufacturing Production (MoM) (0.2%) and Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (1.0%). It will be a definitely productive beginning of the week. Germany At the very beginning of Friday there’s something to follow in Spain and Germany as well. These countries release their CPI tomorrow. European Union Three hours after events in Great Britain, there is one which takes place in Brussel, where EU Leaders meet at the Summit. It’ll be surely connected with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Canada At 1.30 p.m. Canadians receives information about Employment Change, which previously amounted to -200.1K Source: Investing.com Time: GMT

The ECB has announced a quick phasing out of bond buys, boosting the euro.Shoring up the currency helps the eurozone in the short term.The full impact of Russia's Ukraine invasion is still to come.ECB may refrain from rate hikes in 2022, bringing the euro down.Influenced by inflation, (almost) ignoring the war – the European Central Bank has announced a fast pace of tapering its bond-buying scheme as prices rise and despite the adverse effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. EUR/USD has jumped, but it may be premature. The ECB plans to buy some €40 billion worth of bonds in April, falling to €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June. That opens the door to raising interest rates already in the summer rather than in the autumn. While that would not be considered surprising after the previous decision, it seems hawkish given the war. After two weeks of fighting, the Frankfurt-based institution seems to focus on the surge in commodity prices coming from Russian President Vladimir Putin's "special operation." Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer and some 40% of European natural gas is sent on orders from Moscow. Ukraine and Russia are responsible for a substantial portion of global wheat exports, and port blockades are already felt in supermarkets.However, Russia's atrocities in a European country are pushing prices higher and destroying demand. A war on the doorstep of the eurozone is hitting confidence and also leaving consumers with less money to spend. Even if headline inflation rises, underlying prices may fall.ECB President Christine Lagarde promised decisions based on new forecasts presented in March, but these new projections may remain slient while the cannons are heard. The taper announcement serves to push the euro higher and somewhat squeeze the prices hikes coming from imports. However, that is nothing in comparison to the economic damage done by the war and the sanctions, and that may eventually haunt the common currency. It may come sooner than later, providing a selling-opportunity on EUR/USD now.

NZDUSD consolidates gains The New Zealand dollar inched higher supported by roaring commodity prices. A break above the daily resistance at 0.6890 has put the kiwi back on track in the medium term. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests an acceleration to the upside. As sentiment improves, the bulls may see the current consolidation as an opportunity to accumulate. A close above 0.6920 would extend the rally to 0.7050. 0.6800 is the first support and 0.6730 over the 30-day moving average a key demand zone. XAGUSD seeks support Silver consolidates amid ongoing geopolitical instability. A bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the rally. A tentative break below 25.40 has prompted some buyers to take profit. While sentiment remains optimistic, a correction might be necessary for the bulls to take a breather. The psychological level of 25.00 is a major demand zone. Its breach could send the precious metal to 24.30 which sits on the 30-day moving average. A rally above 26.90 could propel the price to last May’s highs around 28.50. US 30 struggles for buyers The Dow Jones 30 turned south after talks between Russia and Ukraine stalled again. A rebound above 34000 has provided some relief. Nonetheless, enthusiasm could be short-lived after the index gave up all recent gains. The prospect of a bear market looms if this turns out to be a dead cat bounce. A fall below 32300 could trigger another round of liquidation and push the Dow to a 12-month low at 30800. On the upside, 33500 is the first resistance. The bulls will need to lift offers around 34100 before they could attract more followers.

  With each day of the Russian invasion, gold confirms its status as the safe-haven asset. Its long-term outlook has become more bullish than before the war. Two weeks have passed since the Russian attack on Ukraine. Two weeks of the first full-scale war in Europe in the 21th century, something I still can’t believe is happening. Two weeks of completely senseless conflict between close Slavic nations, unleashed without any reasonable justification and only for the sake of Putin’s imperial dreams and his vision of Soviet Reunion. Two weeks of destruction, terror, and death that captured the souls of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of civilians, including dozens of children. Just yesterday, Russian forces bombed a maternity hospital in southern Ukraine. I used to be a fan of Russian literature and classic music (who doesn’t like Tolstoy or Tchaikovsky?), but the systematic bombing of civilian areas (and the use of thermobaric missiles) makes me doubt whether the Russians really belong to the family of civilized nations. Now, for the warzone report. The country’s capital and largest cities remain in the hands of the Ukrainians. Russian forces are drawing reserves, deploying conscript troops to Ukraine to replace great losses. They are still trying to encircle Kyiv. They are also strengthening their presence around the city of Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian army heroically holds back enemy attacks in all directions. The defense is so effective that the large Russian column north-west of Kyiv has made little progress in over a week, while Russian air activity has significantly decreased in recent days.   Implications for Gold How has the war, that has been going on for already two weeks, affected the gold market so far? Well, as the chart below shows, the military conflict was generally positive for the yellow metal, boosting its price from $1,905 to $1989, or about 4.4%. Please note that initially the price of gold jumped, only to decline after a while, and only then rallied, reaching almost $2,040 on Tuesday (March 8, 2022). However, the price has retreated since then, below the key level of $2,000. This is partially a normal correction after an impressive upward move. It’s also possible that the markets are starting to smell the end of the war. You see, Russian forces can’t break through the Ukrainian defense. They can continue besieging cities, but the continuation of the invasion entails significant costs, and Russia’s economy is already sinking. Hence, they can either escalate the conflict in a desperate attempt to conquer Kyiv – according to the White House, Russia could conduct a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine – or try to negotiate the ceasefire. In recent days, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said he was open to a compromise with Russia. Today, the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers met in Turkey for the first time since the horror started (unfortunately, without any agreement). However, although gold prices may consolidate for a while or even fall if the prospects of the de-escalation increase, the long-term fundamentals have turned more bullish. As you can see in the chart below, the real interest rates decreased amid the prospects of higher inflation and slower economic growth. Russia and Ukraine are key exporters of many commodities, including oil, which would increase the production costs and bring us closer to stagflation. What’s next, risk aversion increased significantly, which is supportive of safe-haven assets such as gold. After all, Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is a turning point in modern history, which ends a period of civilized relations with Russia and relative safety in the world. Although Russia’s army discredited itself in Ukraine, the country still has nuclear weapons able to destroy the globe. As you can see in the chart below, both the credit spreads (represented here by the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread) and the CBOE volatility index (also called “the fear index”) rose considerably in the last two weeks. Hence, the long-term outlook for gold is more bullish than before the invasion. The short-term future is more uncertain, as there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends. However, given the lack of any decisions during today’s talks between Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers and the continuation of the military actions, gold may rally further. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Bitcoin fell 5.4% on Thursday, ending the day near $39.6K, and further to $38.9K on Friday morning, down 1% in 24 hours. Ethereum has remained almost unchanged over the same time (-0.3%), while other leading altcoins from the first are changing in different directions, from a 1.6% increase (XRP) to a 1% decrease (BNB). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 0.2% over the day to $1.74 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index continues to decline, falling from 42.7% yesterday to 42.4% due to the greater stability of altcoins. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed lost 6 points in a day to 22, again entering the territory of "extreme fear". Bitcoin fully returned the growth of Wednesday, which was caused by the adoption in the United States of the first document on the regulation of cryptocurrencies. The decline in stock indices and the growth of the dollar also did not favour the purchases of the first cryptocurrency, which often moves in unison with the general demand for risks. The first decree on cryptocurrencies signed the day before can become the basis for future US legislation on regulating relations in the crypto sphere. Against this background, the shares of companies associated with cryptocurrencies have noticeably risen in price. One of the largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, is going to expand its offering for trading digital assets. The bank is exploring the possibility of launching bilateral crypto-currency options. World-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki has warned that the world economy is now on the verge of hyperinflation and advised to "stay away" from the stock market. Against the backdrop of a severe crisis in the financial system of the Russian Federation and restrictions imposed on the circulation of the dollar and the euro, the demand of the population for cryptocurrency has increased sharply. Now it is primarily used for the transfer of capital abroad or for parking in "hard" currency. Analysts believe that regulators are unlikely to be able to effectively prevent such transactions. But the state is helped by crypto-exchanges, which block the Russians on their own initiative. There remain the possibilities of p2p platforms, that is, transfers between individuals. However, there are significant risks of fraud associated with such transactions.

AUD/USD witnessed fresh selling on Friday and snapped two successive days of the winning streak.Dovish remarks by RBA Governor Lowe, modest USD strength exerted some downward pressure.A goodish recovery in the risk sentiment helped limit further losses for the perceived riskier aussie.The AUD/USD pair recovered a few pips from the daily low, around the 0.7300 mark touched in the last hour and was last seen trading around the 0.7325 region.The pair struggled to capitalize on its gains recorded over the past two trading sessions and witnessed some selling on Friday in reaction to dovish-sounding remarks by the RBA Governor Philip Lowe. During his opening address to the Australian Banking Association, Lowe said that the RBA will not be pressured by financial markets to raise interest rates until prices are rising at a sustainable pace.Apart from this, some intraday US dollar buying exerted additional downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. That said, hopes of a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis lifted the global risk sentiment and acted as a headwind for the safe-haven greenback. The optimism was fueled by comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying that there are certain positive shifts in talks with Ukraine.The latest developments triggered a goodish move up in the equity markets, which, in turn, extended some support to the perceived riskier aussie. The risk-on mood, along with firming expectations for an imminent start of the policy tightening by the Fed pushed the US Treasury bond yields higher. This should act as a tailwind for the USD and keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the AUD/USD pair.Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming a near-term bullish bias amid the risk of a further escalation in tensions between Russia and the West. In fact, US President Joe Biden is set to call for an end of normal trade relations with Russia later this Friday, alongside the Group of Seven nations and European Union leaders.

Shiba Inu price action sees volume wearing thinner due to investors remaining sidelined as peace talks in Ukraine stall. SHIB bulls are a bit puzzled about what to do next as global worries on inflation and Ukraine are dampening any upward potential in SHIB price action. Expect to see the price go sideways to lower today, heading into the weekend. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action has not been in a sweet spot for investors this week. With whipsawing price action and bears still sitting on lucrative gains, investors got burned several times on false breakouts and mixed signals coming from both the markets and price action in SHIB. Expect a large number of funds to stay sidelined as more peace talks get underway, but Russia’s stance of not wanting to meet Ukraine halfway, suggest those talks are likely to end in failure rather than success. Shiba Inu price reveals that bulls are not taking chances as new peace talks have no chance of succeeding Shiba Inu price action is on a slow downward burn after bulls got tempted in to what looked like a relief rally but instead turned out to be a full-fledged bull trap, squeezing bulls out of their positions, paring back all the gains accrued, and even making a new low for the week this morning. With the Relative Strength Index flatlining, it looks as if SHIB’s balance between bears and bulls is in gridlock as bulls do not want to engage without a clear positive catalyst, and bears are sitting on a pile of profits that they do not want to offload at the current levels. It will take either a breakthrough in peace talks or another catalyst to form some counterweight against the forecast of stagflation and further deterioration in Ukraine that is at the moment directing price action in Shiba Inu. SHIB price will test the new lows for this week and looks set to drop to the green ascending trend line near $0.00002108, which falls roughly in line with the low of February 24. Depending on how the US dollar behaves, expect to see some movement to the upside, but nowhere near the high of yesterday, so relatively muted below $0.00002400. Expect SHIB price action to go into the weekend within that price range, awaiting any headlines that could set the tone for next week. SHIB/USD daily chart If a breakthrough is made on some front, or some economic data opens a window of relief, expect to see a pop above $0.00002400, breaking the high of yesterday and opening up more upside towards $0.00002533, which is the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). SHIB price action would print a new high for the week with this. As the red descending trend line is in the near vicinity, expect possible bulls to try and reach out to that level, near $0.00002636, for a test and possible break to the upside if the positive sentiment only gains traction going into the weekend.

The US S&P500 closed Thursday with a 0.4% drop, but the sustained downward trend since the beginning of the year has formed a “death cross”, a bearish signal of Tech analysis when the 50-day Moving Average crosses down the 200-day one. It is widely considered as a downtrend confirmation, followed by a further and faster market decline. However, this time the situation might be more optimistic, and there are several other indications, both from technical analysis and the news background. The history of the past ten years makes us wary of any signal that follows from a crossover of these averages. The “death cross” was most clearly triggered in August 2015 and December 2018, when this signal was followed by 12% and 16% drawdowns in the index in the following couple of weeks. The difference between those episodes and the current one is that back then, the market was stalling for a long time, with no strength for growth. This crossover has now taken place after a three-month correction. This trend brings the situation closer to 2020 when the market collapsed on the pandemic - the “black swan”. The war between Russia and Ukraine is the same black swan that accelerated and intensified the correction. In March 2020, and again almost two years later, the “cross” came after an impulsive decline and away from local lows. On the daily timeframes, another indicator, the Relative Strength Index, shows a waning of the downward momentum, as the new lows of the S&P500 index met the RSI at higher local lows. The broad market index found solid support at 76.4% Fibonacci in March from the rally from the pandemic bottom to the peaks of January. There are some fundamentally positive developments for the market. President Putin of Russia rather unexpectedly noted progress in the negotiations with Ukraine, while outside observers the day before stated the opposite. Also, Fed rhetoric has become much softer over the last month, and US lawmakers are more likely to agree on stimulus packages, supporting the demand for risky assets.

At this point, we have a flat end to a choppy week. Markets continue to deal with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine that’s been chopping up risk markets. The top 10 and 25 started the week with a solid move lower. Before buyers flooded back into coins on Tuesday. Feverish buying continued on Wednesday, and it came as a real surprise as markets were flat till lunchtime AU time. Gains reminded us of past times as many of the top ten jumped to 8% plus gains, and some coins hit 10-15% gains. The reason was unclear at the time, but news soon hit that Biden’s executive order was leaked. Traders have been nervously awaiting the details of this order as it was set to show how the US government was going to treat and regulate crypto assets. Cameron Winklevoss, president of crypto exchange Gemini Trust, wrote Wednesday that Biden’s executive order is a “watershed moment” for the industry. “It paves the way for thoughtful national crypto regulation that will allow builders to build onshore and ensure that the US remains a leader in crypto,” he wrote. “It is important for various agencies (federal and state!) and Congress to work closely together,” Winklevoss added. “The WH recognizes the importance of overarching public policy and national interest rising above narrow jurisdictional battles to best develop a coherent and cohesive framework.” The crypto world saw the bill as a win, and that was definitely reflected in prices in Wednesday’s session. This was short-lived as sellers came back with a vengeance on Thursday, and most of Wednesday’s solid gains were all or close to being erased. Buy the rumor, sell the fact, combined with failed proposed talks between Russia and Ukraine, could be some of the influences that sent prices lower. Traders made late recoveries on Friday as futures, and other risk assets gained traction during the London session. The top 10 and 25 turned positive last in the session. Waves was a real standout during the week, and it paid little attention to a lot of the external influences we saw during the week. Price started the week at 16.88 and hit a high of 30.88. A gain of 45%. 29.40 is presented as resistance on the weekly chart, but we will be watching to see if price can respond to a new pullback and retest resistance, suggesting the current rally has further to go. The post Your Crypto Focus: 12th-18th March appeared first on Eightcap.

In the following week: Great Britain, Germany, USA, Canada, Australia, Japan, Russia… - these countries have their economic indicators presented. What’s mostly interesting? Tuesday Australia and China At 0.30 a.m. RBA Release Meeting Minutes, At 2 a.m. Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) goes public. Great Britain In the morning, five hours later, British Average Earnings Index +Bonus is present