rouble

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USD To RUB Went Up As Many Factors Influences The Rouble

USD To RUB Went Up As Many Factors Influences The Rouble

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.01.2022 13:14
The Russian ruble rolled back yesterday with a sharp movement from the iconic round levels. Such a reversal often signifies the end of the previous trend and the beginning of a new movement. If you look at USDRUB only as a course chart, then the corrective momentum has the potential to return the pair to 75 from the current 78 over the next couple of weeks. Seasonality, or rather the macroeconomic environment, is also turning towards the ruble. Exporters will have to convert last year's record earnings to pay taxes, some of which are paid once a year. The weakening of the ruble since the beginning of the year is a good opportunity to add interest to profits due to exchange rate differences. This is all in addition to record oil prices for 8 years and the suspension of foreign currency purchases for the Finance Ministry. We should also not forget about the high interest rates that the Bank of Russia has been aggressively raising since March last year. And the markets are waiting for another 100-point increase in two weeks to 9.5%, which further increases the profitability of the ruble money market. But, unfortunately, fundamental and macroeconomic factors are far from being the only components of the complex exchange rate equation. Geopolitics also play an important role. A clear improvement in relations between countries and the issue around Ukraine has not yet developed. Worse still, investors remain alert that the rhetoric of US and EU officials on the one hand and Russia on the other can quickly fall out of the constructive rut. At the same time, experienced market participants know that when the level of uncertainty rolls over, market dynamics (up or down at the end of the day) is the best filter for the news noise around us.
If It Had Been Basketball, We Might Say S&P 500 Had Been Blocked!

If It Had Been Basketball, We Might Say S&P 500 Had Been Blocked!

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.01.2022 16:01
S&P 500 upswing attempt rejected, again – and credit markets didn‘t pause, with the dollar rush being truly ominous. Sign of both the Fed being taken seriously, and of being afraid (positioned for) the adverse tightening consequences. Bonds are bleeding, the yield curve flattening, and VIX having trouble declining. As stated yesterday: (...) It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation. Not even the shock and awe 50bp hike in Mar would make a dent as crude oil prices virtually guarantee inflation persistence beyond 2022. The red hot Treasury and dollar markets are major headwinds as the S&P 500 is cooling off (in a very volatile way) for a major move. As we keep chopping between 4,330s and 4,270s, the bulls haven‘t been yet overpowered. I keep looking to bonds and USD for direction across all markets. I also wrote yesterday: (...) All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity. That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Another setback with reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is chopping in preparation for the upcoming move. Concerningly, the bears are overpowering the bulls on a daily basis increasingly more while Bollinger Bands cool down to accommodate the next move. Direction will be decided in bonds. Credit Markets HYG keeps collapsing but the volume is drying up, which means we could see a reprieve – happening though at lower levels than earlier this week. Quality debt instruments are pausing already, indicatively. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge, and TLT looks ready to pause. The metals keep chopping sideways in the early tightening phase, which is actually quite a feat. Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and its upswing looks ready to go on unimpeded, and that has implications for inflation ahead. Persistent breed, let me tell you. Copper Copper is in danger of losing some breath – the GDP growth downgrades aren‘t helping. The red metal though remains range bound, patiently waiting to break out. Will take time. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are pointing lower again, losing altitude – not yet a buying proposition. Summary S&P 500 bulls wasted another opportunity to come back – the FOMC consequences keep biting as fears of a hawkish Fed are growing. Tech still can‘t get its act together, and neither can bonds – these are the decisive factors for equities. As liquidity is getting scarce while the Fed hadn‘t really moved yet, risk-on assets are under pressure thanks to frontrunning the Fed. The room for a surprising rebound in stocks is however still there, given how well the 4,270s are holding in spite of the HYG plunge. And given the recent quality debt instruments pause, it looks approaching. Look for a dollar decline next to confirm the upcoming risk-on upswing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Unforced Errors - 31.01.2022

Unforced Errors - 31.01.2022

David Merkel David Merkel 09.11.2021 04:40
Photo Credit: Paul Kagame || Hail Emperor Xi, the greatest since Qin Shi Huang! Ready for a cold winter? Much of the world is not. Many places have discouraged using hydrocarbons to produce power, ostensibly for environmental goals, whether those are valid or not. Whether by the fiat of the Chinese Communist Party, or because some Eurocrats push a green agenda, many people are facing a winter where power/heat may be limited. And even if there may not be absolute shortages everywhere, higher prices for all forms of energy, will pinch the budgets of many in the lower middle class and below this winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Part of this stems from central planning. China is the easiest example. Xi Jinping has arrogated to himself more and more power over time, changing the dynamics of the Communist Party, which once at least had some factions, to a unitary party that has only one leader, Emperor President Xi. Some of it came about by eliminating corrupt rivals, but the rest from instilling fear within the Party. Almost every evening, my wife and I read the Bible together. Recently we have been going through the post-exilic portions of the Old Testament where the Jews live under the rule of the Babylonian and Medo-Persian Empires. Those rulers were typically absolute monarchs: do what I say or die! In going through Esther, my wife commented that it was stupid to have laws that cannot be altered. (The same thing is stated in the Book of Daniel.) My comment back to her was if you were an absolute monarch in that era, you were God walking on earth, and could never be wrong. Thus no decree of an Emperor could be wrong. And so it is for President Xi: everything he says is right. He may be an atheist, but to the Chinese in Red China, he is “God walking on Earth” in at least the Hegelian sense. As such, he makes a decree, and those serving him are scared to do anything more or less than he wants. But with vague directives, what does he want? Unilateral authority is particularly vulnerable to making mistakes. In the intermediate-term, China is likely to get weaker because of the increasing concentration of power of President Xi. That’s not to say that capitalist democracies can’t run off the rails, but typically with enough dissenting voices, the worst outcomes don’t usually take place. There are exceptions though. The first exception is regulators with too much discretionary authority. By pursuing one limited goal in the short-run, such as long-term environmental objectives, they may harm the interests of ordinary people in developed markets by making it hard to get food, fuel/energy, and other necessities. And applying the same rules in foreign policy, they may well condemn the developing world to permanent poverty. The developing world thinks the developed world doesn’t care. They are right, and they will ignore what their current leaders have promised in order to curry temporary favor with the developed world. Now where there is the ability to self-correct, eventually societies will remove regulators, politicians, etc. That said, some things are more entrenched than others. I speak of the cult of stimulus. What is more untouchable than the central banks? It’s hard to think of anything more unaccountable. They may technically be beholden to the local parliament, but practically, no one ever messes with them aside from despots pursuing hyperinflation (Venezuela, Turkey, Lebanon, etc.). What gores me is that the unaccountable central banks never ‘fess up to errors. Listen to this: “Asset prices remain vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk sentiment deteriorate, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the economic recovery stall,” the Fed said in its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report released Monday.Fed Warns of Peril in Run-Up of Risky Asset Prices, Stablecoins That serial blower of bubbles, the Fed, warns us about the height of risky asset prices. Fed policy works via encouraging economic actors to borrow less or more. They have been running a more aggressive monetary policy than they ever needed to, and in the process have inflated housing prices, stocks, bonds of all sorts, private equity, etc. This is not just true of the Fed in the US, but in most developed country central banks. This was an unforced error. Monetary policy could have been tightened in mid-2020, and I mean raising the Fed funds rate, not just stopping QE. When the equity markets race to new highs so rapidly, why should any stimulus exist at all? We don’t need stimulus from Congress either. When demand is so strong that supply chains creak, buckle, and seize up, it is not time to stimulate more, rather, it is time to balance the budget. I would like to think that supply-chain troubles, inflation, and growth are all transitory. But if in an effort to force growth higher than it should be in the short-run, the growth will still be transitory, but the supply-chain troubles and inflation will persist. Beware the experts that say they run things for your good; they likely don’t know what they are doing. ============= Ending note: one more thing, beware the inflation numbers, particularly on items in short supply. If the economists reduce the weights on those things in short supply, it will artificially understate inflation.
Bitcoin, Fed, Stocks and Bonds

Bitcoin, Fed, Stocks and Bonds

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.02.2022 13:18
Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution The Plan: It is an election year when Democrats will project political pressure upon the Federal Reserve to not risk through aggressive policy changes a stock market collapse to keep their votes. As a result, more money printing expands inflation, which supports the interest for bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Should we see in opposition for whatever reason a rapid stock market decline, the investor would unlikely be interested in owning stock or bonds. While initially, bitcoin prices would likely fall alongside the markets, money will likely flow into bitcoin shortly afterward. The execution: With bitcoins prices suppressed from their recent decline (down 52% from its last all-time high at around US$69,000), we have another edge for minimizing exposure risk. BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, high likely turning points: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 31st, 2022. The chart above depicts five supply zones we have our eye on. We will try identifying low-risk entry points on smaller time frames at or near these points and reduce risk further with our quad exit strategy. We already had entries near zone 1 and 2 and posted those live in our free Telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, bitcoin, the plan, and its execution, reload trading: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2022. Once the more significant time frame turning point is identified (white arrow), we will add what we call ‘reload’ trades (see chart above) on the smaller weekly time frame. We do so by identifying low-risk entries in congestion zones (yellow boxes) on the way up. We aim to arrive near the elections in November with a sizable position that is due to our exit strategy being risk-free. Playing with the market’s money will allow for positive execution psychology and ease us to observe our position through an expected volatility period, with further profit-taking into possible volatile upswings that are only temporary in nature. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, long-term profit potential: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of February 1st, 2022. While this year’s midterm trading on the long side of the bitcoin market could provide for substantial income from the 50% profit-taking of each individual trade and reload based on our quad exit strategy, the real goal is to have a remaining position size that could potentially go to unfathomable heights, since we see in the long term the inflation problem not going away but rather culminating in a bitcoin rise that could be substantially much larger in percentage than alternative inflation hedges like real estate, gold, silver and alike. Not to say that we find it also essential to hold these asset classes for wealth preservation. The quarterly chart above illustrates the potential of such a position. We illustrated both in time (six years) and price (US$ 134,000) our most conservative model in this chart. Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution: We see no scenario where inflation is just going away. The above narrative shows that a short-term fueling of inflation is likely. Furthermore, a high-risk scenario is fueling inflation even more. Should markets decline rapidly, it can be expected that money printing and buying up the market is the most predominant solution applied. Consequently, the average investor would wake up relieved that prices wouldn’t decline any further but liquidating their holdings in a further inflated fiat currency will have massively decreased purchasing power. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Are You Thinking the Dollar Will Collapse? That’s False Hope

Are You Thinking the Dollar Will Collapse? That’s False Hope

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 07.02.2022 15:49
  Gold’s latest feats increased investors’ appetite. The outlook for the dollar, however, remains healthy. That can only mean one thing. As volatility erupts across the financial markets, gold and silver prices are being pulled in conflicting directions. For example, with the USD Index suffering a short-term decline, the outcome is fundamentally bullish for the precious metals. However, with U.S. Treasury yields rallying, the outcome is fundamentally bearish for gold and silver prices. Then, with panic selling and panic buying confronting the general stock market, the PMs are dealing with those crosscurrents. However, with QE on its deathbed and the Fed poised to raise the Federal Funds Rate in the coming months, the common denominator is rising real interest rates. To explain, the euro’s recent popularity has impacted the USD Index. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the dollar basket’s movement. Thus, if real interest rates rise and the U.S. dollar falls, what will happen to the PMs? Well, the reality is that rising real interest rates are bullish for the USD Index, and the euro’s recent ECB-induced rally is far from a surprise. With investors often buying the EUR/USD in anticipation of a hawkish shift from the ECB, another ‘hopeful’ upswing occurred. However, the central bank disappointed investors time and time again in 2021, and the currency pair continued to make new lows. As a result, we expect the downtrend to resume over the medium term.  Supporting our expectations, I wrote the following about financial conditions and the USD Index on Feb. 2: To explain, the blue line above tracks Goldman Sachs' Financial Conditions Index (FCI). For context, the index is calculated as a "weighted average of riskless interest rates, the exchange rate, equity valuations, and credit spreads, with weights that correspond to the direct impact of each variable on GDP." In a nutshell: when interest rates increase alongside credit spreads, it's more expensive to borrow money and financial conditions tighten. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the FCI has surpassed its pre-COVID-19 high (January 2020). Moreover, the FCI bottomed in January 2021 and has been seeking higher ground ever since. In the process, it's no coincidence that the PMs have suffered mightily since January 2021. To that point, with the Fed poised to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, the FCI should continue its ascent. As a result, the PMs' relief rallies should fall flat like in 2021.  Likewise, while the USD Index has come down from its recent high, it's no coincidence that the dollar basket bottomed with the FCI in January 2021 and hit a new high with the FCI in January 2022. Thus, while the recent consolidation may seem troubling, the medium-term fundamentals supporting the greenback remain robust. Furthermore, tighter financial conditions are often a function of rising real interest rates. As mentioned, the USD Index bottomed with the FCI and surged to new highs with the FCI. As a result, the fundamentals support a stronger, not weaker USD Index. As evidence, the U.S. 10-Year real yield, the FCI, and the USD Index have traveled similar paths since January 2020. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the USD Index since January 2020, while the red line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year real yield. While the latter didn’t bottom in January 2021 like the USD Index and the FCI (though it was close), all three surged in late 2021 and hit new highs in 2022. Moreover, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury nominal and real yields hit new 2022 highs on Feb. 4.  In addition, if you compare the two charts, you can see that all three metrics spiked higher when the coronavirus crisis struck in March 2020. As such, the trio often follows in each other’s footsteps. Furthermore, with the Fed likely to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, this realization supports a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield, and a higher FCI. As a result, the fundamentals underpinning the USD Index remain robust, and short-term sentiment is likely to be responsible for the recent weakness.  Likewise, as the Omicron variant slows U.S. economic activity, the ‘bad news is good news’ camp has renewed hopes for a dovish Fed. However, the latest strain is unlikely to affect the Fed’s reaction function. A case in point: after ADP’s private payrolls declined by 301,000 in January (data released on Feb. 2), concern spread across Wall Street. However, after U.S. nonfarm payrolls (government data) came in at 467,000 versus 150,000 expected on Feb. 4, the U.S. labor market remains extremely healthy.  Please see below: Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) On top of that, the BLS revealed that “the over-the-month employment change for November and December 2021 combined is 709,000 higher than previously reported, while the over-the-month employment change for June and July 2021 combined is 807,000 lower. Overall, the 2021 over-the-year change is 217,000 higher than previously reported.”  Thus, the U.S. added more than 700,000 combined jobs in November and December than previously reported, and the net gain in 2021 was more than 200,000. Please see below: Source: BLS As for wage inflation, the BLS also revealed: “In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 23 cents to $31.63. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.7 percent.” As a reminder, while investors speculate on the prospect of a hawkish ECB, the latest release out of Europe shows that wage inflation is much weaker than in the U.S. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 1: Eurozone hourly labor costs rose by 2.5% YoY on Dec. 16 (the latest release). Moreover, the report revealed that “the costs of wages & salaries per hour worked increased by 2.3%, while the non-wage component rose by 3.0% in the third quarter of 2021, compared with the same quarter of the previous year.”  As a result, non-wage labor costs – like insurance, healthcare, unemployment premiums, etc. – did the bulk of the heavy lifting. In contrast, wage and salary inflation are nowhere near the ECB’s danger zone. Please see below: And why is wage inflation so critical? Well, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Jan. 25: Source: ECB As a result, when the ECB’s Chief Economist tells you that wage inflation needs to hit 3% YoY to be “consistent” with the ECB’s 2% overall annual inflation target, a wage print of 2.3% YoY is far from troublesome. Thus, while euro bulls hope that the ECB will mirror the Fed and perform a hawkish 180, the data suggests otherwise.  In addition, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls materially outperformed on Feb. 4, I noted on Feb. 2 that there are now 4.606 million more job openings in the U.S. than citizens unemployed. Please see below: To explain, the green line above subtracts the number of unemployed U.S. citizens from the number of U.S. job openings. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the epic collapse has completely reversed and the green line is now at an all-time high. Thus, with more jobs available than people looking for work, the economic environment supports normalization by the Fed. Thus, if we piece the puzzle together, the U.S. labor market remains healthy and U.S. inflation is materially outperforming the Eurozone. As a result, the Fed should stay ahead of the ECB, and the hawkish outperformance supports a weaker EUR/USD and a stronger USD Index. Moreover, the dynamic also supports a higher FCI and a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield. As we’ve seen since January 2021, these fundamental outcomes are extremely unkind to the PMs. Finally, while the Omicron variant has depressed economic sentiment, I noted previously that the disruptions should be short-lived. For example, with Americans’ anxiety about COVID-19 decelerating, renewed economic strength should keep the pressure on the Fed. Please see below: To explain, the light brown line above tracks the net percentage of Americans concerned about COVID-19, while the dark brown line above tracks the change in flight search trends on Kayak. In a nutshell: the more concern over COVID-19 (a high light brown line), the more Americans hunker down and avoid travel (a low dark brown line). However, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light brown line has rolled over and the dark brown line has materially risen. Moreover, with the trend poised to persist as the warmer weather arrives, increased mobility should uplift sentiment, support economic growth, and keep the Fed’s rate hike cycle on schedule. The bottom line? The USD Index’s fundamentals remain extremely healthy, and while short-term sentiment has been unkind, rising real yields and a hawkish Fed should remain supportive over the medium term. Moreover, with the PMs often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, more downside should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks over the next few months. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 4, despite the spike in U.S. Treasury yields. However, with so much volatility confronting the general stock market recently, sentiment has pulled the PMs in many directions. However, the important point is that the medium-term thesis remains intact: the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields should seek higher ground, and the realization is profoundly bearish for the precious metals sector. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

February 8th, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.02.2022 20:48
Stacking bitcoins winning edges It is not the number of edges that get it low risk. And again, there are no hidden magic formulas. What works well is covering multiple aspects in stacking one’s edges: Market behavior Time of day Oscillators for ranging markets Indicators for trending markets Supply/demand zone identification (VWAP=volume weighted average price, in addition to support and resistance lines) Inter-market relationships Leading/lagging (relative strength within a sector or group) Candlestick pattern Volume Time frame relationships Action-reaction principle News Day of the week Swing leg count MAE (=maximum adverse excursion) Mathematical/statistical edges like standard deviation Your list might look vastly different but should include tools that cover the principal variants of market behavior (ranging, trending, slow/fast price action, liquidity, time, volume, transactions). Investopedia is a good research tool for finding definitions and explanations of the various available technical tools. BTC in US-Dollar, daily chart, how we stack odds in our favor: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 8th, 2022. Our previous chart book release described fundamental reasons for being bullish on bitcoin, which we stack in a similar principled fashion. We pointed out that we were looking for low-risk entry points to build up a long-term position for bitcoin. Such a low-risk opportunity arose on February 3rd, last week. We had the following edges stacked at the time of entry (green arrow): General price strength (directional yellow line channel) Previous day retracement (action-reaction principle) Small range Doji for tight stop and possible reversal indication VWAP (blue histogram to the right of the chart) indicating a supply zone Scheduled ECB news item out of the way Time of week Time of day (we entered near the close of the daily candle) Extended from the mean (blue line, standard deviation) Commodity Channel Index (CCI). A momentum-based oscillator useful in congested sideways channels, gave the prior day to execution indication of a long entry (yellow arrow) We posted our entry in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Within a 24-hour period, we could profit on half of the position size for a gain of 8.73%. We also posted this first profit-taking target in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Our quad exit strategy provides income-producing revenues like this but, even more, eliminates risk. Consequently, this approach supports trading the remaining position with psychological ease for the intended long-term holding period. Hence, even starting out as a a short-term trade, the last 25% of the initial position can become a long-term invest. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, well-positioned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 8th, 2022. With previous entries at recent lows established in much the same manner, we are now exposed to the market with seven remaining rest positions at zero risk. Such an approach can afford to negate whether this will be the long-term turning point or not. Profits have been made. Should our plan pan out, then the remaining exposed capital will lead to further profits. Otherwise, this remaining position size will stop out at breakeven entry level. The weekly chart shows now a confirmed situation of a weekly bar takeout. For most traders this is an entry signal while we were already well established. We are playing with the market’s money and profits banked. With this time frame alignment more money is expected to join the long side. The chart also illustrates the favorable risk/reward-ratio to the right of the chart.   BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, early bird: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of February 8th, 2022. A glance at the monthly chart shows we are positioned very early and aggressively for this time frame. Nevertheless, as soon as prices might reach US$48,000, we will find ourselves here as well time frame aligned with a bar takeout. Green numbers show our entry prices for January with two entries and February with five entries. Should prices move upwards in our favor, we would take again partial profits near the red horizontal trend line slightly below all-time highs. The remaining positions stays in place for a possible breakout to all-time new highs. Too late if you are not positioned yet? No! This continuous flow of adding low-risk entry trades followed by partial profit-taking allows participating at all stages of market swings. Stacking bitcoins winning edges: In short, you want to have a clear instruction sheet on what to do in whatever market condition bitcoin throws at you. With a set of tools broadly covering all these variants and measuring them, you will be able to act without hesitancy. Then you can hope for the best, since you planned for the worst. Risk control is the core of each advanced trading approach! We aim to keep it simple, like a card counter, which supports executing high probability winning trades. At the same time, the crowd is confronted by surprising news or fast-moving markets. They use reactionary, inappropriate execution, which in turn creates losing trades. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 6th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Wondering What Will Be The Next Russian Rouble (RUB) As National Bank Can Increase The Rate

Wondering What Will Be The Next Russian Rouble (RUB) As National Bank Can Increase The Rate

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.02.2022 09:33
On Thursday, the Russian ruble rolled back to 74.50, and on Friday morning, it rewrote these local lows to recover to the levels from which it started the year, winning back the failure in geopolitics. However, the strengthening of the ruble took place not so much on political de-escalation but on the actions of the Bank of Russia. And today, we are waiting for new actions that can both strengthen the positions of the Russian currency and return the ruble to the path of decline. We are inclined to believe that the CBR will remain on the side of the ruble. When making a decision on the key rate, the CBR will weigh the actual and expected inflation rates both in Russia and in the world, and there is little reason to relax. The latest estimates of inflation in Russia have shown that the annual rate of price growth has accelerated again, requiring a further tightening of the screws. Under these conditions, the Bank of Russia is likely to raise the rate by 100 points - the second time in a row. Previously, the CBR maintained parity between the rate and the annual inflation rate, but now it makes sense to step up pressure to suppress inflation. At the same time, we should be prepared to hear comments that such a sharp increase may not be required in the future. Based on inflationary trends, the key rate could reach its 10% ceiling for this tightening cycle before the end of March and then hold at this level for another year. Another factor is the volatility of the ruble and geopolitics. In January, the CBR decided to suspend purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance in order to reduce pressure on the ruble in the Russian financial market. The biggest risk for the ruble is that the CBR will announce today that it is returning to buying foreign currency. Such a move could hit the ruble hard. However, we believe that it would be logical for the CBR to extend the pause in purchases at least until the end of the exercises in Belarus, that is, until the end of February. The strengthening of the ruble, as a side effect of expensive oil and the suspension of foreign currency purchases, can additionally work to slow down import inflation and consumer inflation in general. If we are right, then the ruble may remain in an uptrend until the end of February, rushing to the 71 area by the end of the month. However, it is still difficult to expect a steady growth of the Russian currency to the area below 70.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Ripple (XRP) Increases By 1.7%, AVAX By 12%, (BTC) Bitcoin Gains 4.4%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.02.2022 08:40
Cryptocurrencies rose on Tuesday on the back of strengthening stock indices and falling protective assets like gold, the yen, and treasuries. Bitcoin started its rise before the news about Russia and Ukraine hit the wires and sparked risk-on sentiments. Technical factors may have influenced the first cryptocurrency's strengthening, with BTC pushing back from its 50-day moving average, which has been acting as a support level for the past week. Russia has proposed allowing cryptocurrency mining in specific regions and imposing taxes on the conversion of crypto assets into fiat and is making progress in testing the digital rouble with the first interbank transfers. Bitcoin rose on Tuesday to its highest level in the past week (+4.4%), ending the day around $44,100, where it is trading on Wednesday morning. Ethereum jumped 7.3% on Tuesday, settling at $3100, while other leading altcoins from the top 10 also added: from 1.7% (XRP) to 12% (Avalanche). Overnight, crypto market capitalisation rose 2% to $1.98 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap estimates. Since early January, the market has not been consistently above the 2 trillion mark, and consolidation above could be an essential signal for bulls to move from observation to active buying. Since the end of January, there has been a notable uptrend support line that can be drawn through the local lows, which sets up optimism in the short term. The two largest cryptocurrencies, BTC and ETH, are attempting to consolidate above their 50-day averages, which previously signalled the end of a bearish phase. This was primarily made possible by optimism on Wall Street, where investors continue to buy out drawdowns. Altcoins showed outperformance, which led to a 0.3 percentage point decline in the Bitcoin Dominance Index to 40.4%. The Fear & Greed Index climbed from 46 to 51, moving into the Neutral from the Fear territory.
Stumbling Again

Stumbling Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.02.2022 15:53
S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that: (...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rebounded on low volume but that wouldn‘t be an issue in a healthy bull market – the trouble is that this 2022 price action isn‘t very healthy.Credit MarketsHYG didn‘t trade on a strong note, and the rise in yields continues almost unabated. This is what I meant yesterday by saying that we may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals suffered a temporary setback – they easily gave up some of the safe haven gains, which isn‘t surprising. The bulls though haven‘t lost control, and that‘s key.Crude OilCrude oil dip was bought, and there wasn‘t much bearish conviction to start with. The general uptrend is likely to continue, and $90 appears likely to hold over the next few days definitely.CopperCopper is now in for some backing and filling, but managed to catch up with other commodities a little yesterday. The red metal remains range bound, but making good bullish progress.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are paring back yesterday‘s advance, and unless the mid Feb lows give, they‘re likely to muddle through with a modest bullish bias till the attention shifts to the Fed again.SummaryS&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems slipping away with each 1D or 4H candle, and I‘m not counting on the credit markets to ride to stocks‘ rescue. The commodities bull though is likely to carry on with little interference – and so does the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing. Slowdown in economic growth with rampant inflation and the realization that the Fed tightening hasn‘t had the effect, is awaiting, and would usher in strong gold and silver gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bonds Not Reflecting Risks Like They Usually Do – Where's The Beef?

Bonds Not Reflecting Risks Like They Usually Do – Where's The Beef?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 11.02.2022 21:46
I've been paying close attention to Bonds as the global markets react to rising inflation and global central bank moves recently. The US Federal Reserve has yet to take any actions to raise rates, but we all know it will come at some point. Longer-term bonds are acting as if these risks are much more subdued than many traders/investors believe – which has me questioning if global central banks have overplayed the stimulus game? Why would traditional safe-haven assets fail to act in a manner that reflects current market risks like they would typically do? Why have precious metals failed to reflect these risks also properly? Is there something brewing in traders' minds that are muting or mitigating these traditional safe-haven assets? Bonds Continue To Slide After COVID Rally This table, reflecting the recent downward trend in Bonds, highlights the weakened safe-haven tendencies. These assets would generally present with rampant inflation and the possibility of multiple Fed rate increases. (Source: SeekingAlpha.com) Increasing uncertainty throughout the globe, and as inflation climbs to the highest levels since the mid-1970s and 1980s, – “where's the beef?” (to reference a 1980s Wendy's commercial phrase). This TLT Weekly chart shows how risks climbed when COVID hit in February 2020. Yet, take a look at how price has consolidated below $156 and has continued to trend lower over the past six months. After a brief move higher, to levels near the $147 to $155 level, TLT has moved decidedly lower over the past 6+ months. This downward price trend illustrates the diminishing fear levels as traders piled into the post-COVID rally phase. This move suggests traders believe inflation may be temporary or that the US Federal Reserve has room to raise rates without disrupting the global economy. I think the current premise and price trend in TLT vastly underestimates the amount of disruption a series of Fed rate hikes would cause the international markets. The US Federal Reserve will likely consider all options before taking an aggressive move to raise rates. Additionally, the US Fed may decide to allow foreign central banks to move more aggressively to raise rates while it decides to take a more measured approach to inflation. The key to future rate increases is how supply chains open up and how consumers continue to engage in economic activities. Any sudden shift by consumers, or further disruptions in supply for manufacturing and consumer staples/discretionary items, could prompt the Fed into taking aggressive actions. From where the Fed Funds Rates currently are, a move above 0.50% would reflect a +500% rate increase. This may prompt some type of “pop” in certain asset bubbles. (Source: St. Louis Fed) Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and Bond levels throughout 2022 into 2023 as any sudden shift away from current trends could spell trouble. Right now, Bonds are pricing in minimal risks – which may be a mistake. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now, and bonds can’t keep up with inflation and are more or less yield-less. The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions. What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

S&P 500 Chart And Credit Markets Candles Nears Quite Low Levels

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.02.2022 13:33
S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos did break down over the weekend, but the anticipated risk-on rebound fizzled out a bit too fast – as said on Friday, the bears have the upper hand now. Summary S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD falls back under $1,900 after setting fresh multi-month highs near-$1,910

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD falls back under $1,900 after setting fresh multi-month highs near-$1,910

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.02.2022 16:08
Gold hit fresh multi-month highs near the $1,910 on Monday but has since dropped back under the $1,900 handle. Geopolitics remains the wildcard that could stoke surprise volatility in either a bullish or bearish direction. Spot gold (XAU/USD) prices hit fresh multi-month highs near $1,910 on Monday during Asia Pacific session, but have again failed to hold north of the $1,900 handle. In recent trade, the precious metal has been caught going sideways in the mid-$1,890s, with the prospect for a fresh push higher again on Monday limited by the lack of market volume stateside. US markets are shut on Monday for Presidents Day so it is likely to be a very quiet US session. Geopolitics remains the wildcard that could stoke surprise volatility in either a bullish or bearish direction. The Russian rouble has been coming under significant pressure on Monday, indicative of rising fears of a Russian invasion/military incursion into Ukraine that would trigger a round of sanctions from Western countries against Moscow. Violence between pro-Russia separatists and Ukraine’s military in the contested Donbass region continued on Monday, the former group upping the inflammatory rhetoric by accusing Ukraine’s military of shelling and planning a full-scale assault. This is keeping gold underpinned close to recent highs. At current levels in the mid-$1,890s, the precious metal trades close to flat on the day and only about 0.75% below earlier session highs. One bearish risk to note for gold is whether a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden goes ahead this week following recent chatter. The meeting could be a good opportunity to ease tensions somewhat. Otherwise, US data and Fed speak will be worth watching, but will, for the most part, still play second fiddle to the Ukraine crisis.
Crypto Charts - BTC Monthly, Weekly, Daily Chart

Crypto Charts - BTC Monthly, Weekly, Daily Chart

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.02.2022 09:33
Bitcoin, best in play   The Covid environment brought an additional variant risk factor to the table, especially when it comes to investor psychology. Our last weekly chart book publication made a case for positioning one’s risk hedge plays this year when equity markets most likely trade in a volatile sideways range. We also spoke of a proper wealth preservation strategy, holding both bitcoin and gold within a hedged risk reduction approach for your monies. With our primary focus on risk, the next question is allocation size between bitcoin and gold. As mentioned in the intro, it feels intuitively natural to have significant exposure to the gold side from a cycle history. Yet, insurance seems essential at this time, and as such, we tend to be a bit more aggressive towards bitcoin allocations. Bitcoin, daily chart, not just yet: Bitcoin, daily chart as of February 22nd, 2022. The daily chart reflects the common notion of bitcoin trading alongside PMI numbers and the market as a whole. With the recent break of the modest bounce from the US$33,500 level up leg (yellow up-channel), no immediate low-risk entries for longer-term exposure seems in play.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, great setup, bitcoin, best in play: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Nevertheless, we find now zooming out to the weekly time frame a quite interesting entry zone (white box) between the levels US$30,000 to US$34,000. We identified by stacking multiple edges that an entry near US$31,800 would provide the most low-risk entry profile. However, it will depend on how prices will arrive at these levels. As such, we encourage you to check back in our free Telegram channel.  There we post-entries, and exits for educational purposes in real-time. Bitcoin, monthly chart, amazing potential: Bitcoin, monthly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Where matters become more transparent, and our headlines supported, is at a view of the monthly chart. The first leg up was nothing short of a 1,600% advancement. Now we have been trading for a year in a bullish up sloping sideways channel. With a possible entry at the lows of this channel, a long-term investment provides for a stellar risk/reward-ratio. The second legs are typically longer than the first legs! But that is not all; bitcoin has a higher probability of four-leg moves versus three-leg moves. Consequently, this trade could turn out to be highly profitable after some time. One aspect of risk is the relationship between the size of a potential down move of price and the size of a likely up move. We find bitcoins’ upward potential much more significant than gold for its fundamental characteristics and stellar outperforming history percentagewise. Bitcoin, best in play: Summing it up, bitcoin might not be at its lowest retracement levels yet. Still, its powerful potential in risk/reward-ratio and as an overall risk hedge makes it best in play. We share a low-risk cost averaging in strategy in our free Telegram channel. We find that allocation of funds should be more dominant towards bitcoin. In addition, holding some cash as much as money is deflating can still be a good strategy. Cash is king to purchase desired goods and vehicles, especially when those are even more depressed.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin correction, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, NASDAQ, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments
Explained: When bonds and stocks trade in tandem and when the correlation is inverse

Explained: When bonds and stocks trade in tandem and when the correlation is inverse

FXStreet News FXStreet News 22.02.2022 15:58
In times of trouble, bonds are seen as a safe haven and yields fall with stocks.Normally, lower yields boost stocks, an inverse correlation.Understanding the situation is key to trading markets. Could you explain to me the relationship between the movement of 10-year US government bonds and US stock indices? This is a question we have received from a user and the answer is complicated – it depends on the current market focus.Markets are currently in times of trouble, with Russia and Ukraine apparently on the brink of war. Every negative headline prompts investors to sell stocks and buy bonds – moving yields down. So, yields and shares move in tandem. One example is the announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin about the recognition of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Every optimistic headline sends money to stocks and away from Treasuries, pushing yields up, alongside equities. Examples include announcements of high or top-level meetings trying to resolve the situation. Headline-driven markets tend to experience this straightforward correlation between yields and stocks.However, the correlation is inverse when fear of war does not grip markets. In such situations, investors focus on the Federal Reserve. If they think there is a higher chance of more rate hikes, they sell both stocks and bonds – with yields rising to reflect expectations of elevated borrowing costs. Statements about the need for a 50 bps rate hike or strong economic data are examples of such behavior. When some Fed official says the path of rate hikes is slower, investors are happy to push yields lower by buying bonds and they also purchase stocks, which have a bigger advantage when the comparative safe investment in Treasuries results in a lower yield. A comment by a Fed official about settling for a standard 25 bps rate hike triggers such a reaction. Normal markets tend to experience an inverse correlation between bonds and stocks.
Credit Markets Trades Really Low, Oil Price Reaches High Levels At The Same Time

Credit Markets Trades Really Low, Oil Price Reaches High Levels At The Same Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.02.2022 15:36
S&P 500 is waking up to fresh European news, and holds up well. There is no panic upswing in gold and silver, but crude oil and natural gas are up the most. As the U.S. markets are to open following yesterday‘s Washington‘s Birthday holiday, let‘s bring up the key details of yesterday‘s analysis: (…) S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. What a long quote – let‘s update it with the premarket action. S&P 500 is still waiting with its potential upsing, dollar has gone nowhere really, and precious metals look like having a bright day today. The crude oil upswing shows that markets don‘t like the geopolitical news, and are likely to behave in a risk-off way of late (Treasuries, gold and oil up benefiting most). The internals of today‘s stock market action would be telling – I recently got an interesting question touching also upon rates and real estate: Q: I read your most recent newsletter with great interest: 1. You think the Fed would start to ease this fall? In your opinion, how long would that last?  Midterm would be done soon there after so would it be a quick few months then revert back to higher rates? 2. I’m asking question #1 as it would impact real estate. 3. You anticipate a “temporary” rise in the S&P this week? Are you thinking just a few days? I noticed 10 yr is going down. A: Thank you for asking. I'll take 1 & 2 in one go - I think they would change course latest autumn. So, now hawkish and raising, then turning to easing before midterms. Let's see first the damage this tightening does, and the degree to which they then turn dovish. As regards real estate, it's slowing down, homebuilders, XLRE... Headwinds would be stiffening, rates are eating into mortgages, but those ZIP codes where immigration into is high, would do best - but the overall, total real estate isn't an appealing proposition. When markets open, there is likely to be a little SPX rally off oversold readings. Sure, they can get more oversold - that's the way it goes during bearish episodes, which is why I'm not long. The trend for now is to the downside, so I would keep predominantly looking and taking opportunities to short. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos stopped breaking down today, and the price action smacks of joining in the modest risk-on upswing, as unbelievable as it sounds. Summary Yesterday‘s summary is valid also today – S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Let‘s Try Again

Let‘s Try Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.02.2022 15:53
S&P 500 had a wild swings day, and didn‘t rise convincingly – credit markets didn‘t move correspondingly either. The upswing looks postponed unless fresh signs of broad weakness arrive. Yesterday‘s session didn‘t tell much either way – the countdown to the upswing materializing, is on even though tech didn‘t take advantage of higher bond prices. That can still come.VIX though reversed to the downside, and the relatively calmer session we‘re likely going to experience today, would be consistent with a modest attempt for stocks to move higher. I‘m though not looking for a monstrous rally, even though we‘re trading closer to the lower end of the wide S&P 500 range for this year than to its upper border. The 4,280s are so far holding but as the Mar FOMC approaches, we‘re likely to see a fresh turn south in the 500-strong index. For now, the talk of raising rates is on the back burner – Europe is in the spotlight.Note that the flight to safety on rising tensions (Treasuries, gold and oil up) didn‘t benefit the dollar. Coupled with the yields reprieve, that makes for further precious metals gains – the bull run won‘t be toppled if soothing news arrives. Likewise crude oil isn‘t going to tank below $90, and remain there. Commodities can be counted on to keep running – led by energy and agrifoods, with base metals (offering a helping hand to silver) in tow. As I wrote weeks ago, this is where the real gains are to be found.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume moved a little up, meaning the buying interest is still there – convincing signs of a trend change are though yet not apparent. Should prices prove to have trouble breaking lower over the next 1-2 days, this could still turn out a good place for a little long positon.Credit MarketsHYG continues basing, and keeps trading in a risk-off fashion, which is why I can‘t be wildly bullish stocks for now. Stock market gains are likely to remain subdued, noticeably subdued – as a bare minimum for today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, but a little reprieve is developing – nothing though that would break the bull. The run is only starting, and would continue through the rate raising cycle.Crude OilCrude oil is fairly well bid, and doesn‘t appear to be really dipping any time soon. Oil stocks are preparing for an upswing, and would remain one of the best performing S&P 500 sectors. Tripple digit oil is a question of time.CopperCopper‘s moment in the spotlight is approaching as commodities keeps pushing higher, and base metals are breaking up. All of these factors are inflationary.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to move up today, and further gains are likely. I‘m though looking for the 50-day moving average in Bitcoin (corresponding roughly to the mid Feb lows in Ethereum) to prove an obstacle.SummaryS&P 500 didn‘t break to new lows overnight, and appears to be picking up somewhat today. The anticipated rebound might materialize later today, and would require bond participation to be credible. I‘m not looking for sharp gains within this upswing though – the correction looks very much to have further to run. It‘s commodities and precious metals where the largest gains are to be made, with the European tensions taking the focus off inflation (momentarily). The pressure on the Fed to act decisively, is though still on as various credit spreads tell – and the same goes for the compressed yield curve speaking volumes about the (precarious) state of the real economy.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News and Forecast: Premarket more bullish on DWAC than regular session

Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News and Forecast: Premarket more bullish on DWAC than regular session

FXStreet News FXStreet News 23.02.2022 16:05
DWAC stock spiked 28% in Tuesday's premarket after TRUTH Social began accepting users.Tuesday's regular session, however, saw DWAC jump only half as high.Digital World Acquisition Corp's share count is expected to more than quadruple one month after merger closes.Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) stock could not compete in Tuesday's regular session with its performance in the premarket. DWAC shares exploded 28% to $108 before the markets opened on Tuesday. Once the public session got under way, however, DWAC could not even break $100. The Special Purpose Acquisition Vehicle (SPAC) slated to take former President Donald Trump's Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) public in the next month still closed up 10.2% to $92.90 on a day when most equities sold off due to tensions on the Ukraine-Russia front.Donald Trump's social media startup, TRUTH Social, began allowing app downloads on Apple devices on Sunday, February 20, which caused the price to spike on Tuesday when markets opened after the Presidents' Day holiday.Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News: 172K waitlistedOn Tuesday, Newsweek reported that more than 172,000 accounts had been waitlisted, and other sources said many of those seeking to gain access had received error messages. Research firm Apptopia estimated there were 170,000 downloads on Monday in the US. The app was the top free download in Apple's App Store on Monday.This was good news for the most part since trouble accessing a new app due to popularity is normally a sign that it is a hit. Traders, however, began taking profits almost immediately when DWAC shares popped to $99 at the open.A steady drip of new download figures should buoy the stock in the coming days as the company has said it may take 10 days to onboard all the early adopters. The only major worry going forward is the coming share count increase. Thirty days after the merger is completed, separate shares owned by insiders, underwriters, and private investors who invested in the SPAC's separate PIPE deal (Private Investment in Public Equity) will be allowed to trade. This means that the current 37 million-odd shares will grow overnight to more than 170 million. Though this is not a standard dilution event, the increase may put downward pressure on the share price.Additionally, another 40 million "earnout" shares might be earned by company insiders and owners if the share price remains above $15, $20 or $30 a share on average in the month after the merger. Then there are the 15 million warrants that could get exercised in September 2022. By the end of the year, there could be 225 million total shares. Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock Forecast: Two top trend linesAfter opening on Tuesday at $99, the stock immediately sold down to $85.67 before rebounding throughout the rest of the day. Twice during Tuesday's session, DWAC faced resistance near $96.DWAC is trading within an ascending price channel, which gives the market confidence to hold out for higher prices. Traders should note that there are two separate possible top trend lines available to them. The first one (yellow) is the more recent trend that began on January 24. It is much steeper and takes a trajectory aimed at the 161.8% Fibonacci level at $134.90. The other (blue) began back on December 8 and takes a more conservative and gradual aim at the $120 level, which was significant during the first rally in price action back during late October.The swing highs from January 19, February 7 and 22 are all slightly higher than one another, demonstrating that and uptrend is definitely motion no matter which top trend line is preferred. Support sits at $78, $60 and $38. DWAC 1-day chart
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Bitcoin lower as expected of course after our latest sell signal was triggered.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 24.02.2022 08:05
(Because it has never been regarded as a safe haven in times of trouble & always goes down when stock markets panic. Also been proven to be no inflation hedge of course). Ripple reversed in between resistance at 7250/80 & 7610/30 & continues lower as expected. Ethereum breaks the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for yet another sell signal. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin breaks 40800/500 for a medium term sell signal in the 3 month bear trend initially targeting 38000/37500 then 36400/36000 & probably as far as 34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of the 100 week moving average at 32690/700 (today's value). Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with first resistance at 36300/400 then 39400/450. Further resistance at 40900/41000. Shorts need stops above 42200. Ripple lower again as expected to test very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. Longs need stops below 6100. A break lower quickly targets 5800. If you are very brave & want to try longs at 6190/6160, look for targets of 6660/90, & perhaps as far as 6900 for profit taking. Ethereum breaks the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for yet another sell signal in the bear trend as we look for a retest of the January low at 2160/55. I would not rely on this holding the downside & if we continue lower look for a test of very strong support at 1900/1850. Longs need stops below 1750. If this breaks there is likely to be another very significant move to the downside. Bulls desperately need prices to hold above 2500 now to regain control. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
XAUUSD Chart And Bitcoin Charts - BTC/USDT And Bitcoin Vs Gold Chart

XAUUSD Chart And Bitcoin Charts - BTC/USDT And Bitcoin Vs Gold Chart

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.03.2022 10:21
Bitcoins image boost   In times of war, unfortunately, other news is quickly overshadowed temporarily. Gold, monthly chart, cup and handle: Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 7th, 2022. One significant factor is the gold bullish monthly chart with its cup and handle price formation. The larger time frame of the related market plays a substantial role in inter-market analysis. Gold, leading wealth preservation “insurance” for your money in inflationary times, should be on a bitcoin trader/investor’s radar. We find a bullish tone in gold to support possible bitcoin price increases.     Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, monthly chart, bitcoin is cheap: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, monthly chart as of March 8th, 2022. An additional welcoming factor can be found in the monthly chart of the bitcoin relationship towards gold. Presently, around 20 ounces buy you one bitcoin, while in the last quarter of last year, the same bitcoin cost you instead 37 ounces of gold. Consequently, those who have exited a fiat currency system or those who constructively hedge their wealth preservation portfolio might have a greater focus on bitcoin currently as on gold; it is cheaper. Bitcoin, weekly chart, still a couple weeks: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 8th, 2022. A look at a weekly bitcoin chart shows temporary weakness in a general up slope near an entry zone. The last two weeks provided for substantial income-producing trading through partial profit-taking. Bitcoin had delivered a 32% range from US$34,322 to US$45,400. Unfortunately, there was no directional follow-through beyond this point, and bitcoin has yet again retraced substantially. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering right above a low-risk entry zone again, and we are hawkishly looking out for low-risk entries. A look into the past shows that it took bitcoin ten weeks to turn around in scenario A. Our timing prognosis is another two weeks now before we see possibly fast advancements. Bitcoins image boost: Some think of chocolate when thinking of Switzerland, and indeed this news is sweet to the bitcoin community. Bitcoins’ last step to gain momentum is widespread adoption. News, like the 10% increase in GDP since El Salvador’s declaration of bitcoin being accepted legal tender, is impressive. Yet, it is still met with doubt due to either political or economic situations of countries that have adopted bitcoin so far. With a central money mecca now representing progressive bitcoin use and old history of a conservative, strong financial stability image backing such behavior, widespread mass doubt can be swayed towards more bitcoin adaptation.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 8th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:23
The Russian rouble remains under pressure, while all the new controls on currency transactions in Russia are alienating the exchange rate at home and on global FX. The 12% commission on currency purchases explains the difference between the external and domestic exchange rates. That said, one must realise that "catching the bottom" of the ruble is hardly wise when new sanctions are imposed almost on a daily basis. The economic landslide continues with extreme speed. Across the other EM markets, there is a concern or even pessimism about the medium-term outlook, and some relative easing of the fear level is striking in the stock markets today. Commodity markets, which continued their move towards new extremes yesterday, have encountered substantial selling, which continues today. Some reduction in the excitement can be attributed to hopes of progress towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Nevertheless, the conditions already prevailing in commodity markets are putting serious pressure on EM equities and currencies. EM populations are more vulnerable to soaring basic food and energy prices and currencies to capital outflows due to flight to safety. All of this is tightening financial conditions is undermining the economic recovery that investors had hoped for at the start of the year because of the retreat of the pandemic. While the end of last year and the beginning of this one were sentiments that growth momentum was shifting from the US to Europe and emerging markets, events in recent weeks have not only returned EM markets to the downward trend but again show that US markets are the best refuge for capital. For example, Chinese indices are losing 35% (Hang Seng) to 43% (China H-star) from their February 2021 peak. And this trend will not quickly reverse even if the military conflict in Eastern Europe ends right now because economic and reputational damage has already been done, which will take months or even years to undo.
Ringing the Bell

Ringing the Bell

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.03.2022 16:03
S&P 500 once again gave up intraday gains, and credit markets confirmed the decline. Value down significantly more than tech, risk-off anywhere you look. For days without end, but the reprieve can come on seemingly little to no positive news, just when the sellers exhaust themselves and need to regroup temporarily. We‘re already seeing signs of such a respite in precious metals and commodities – be it the copper downswing, oil unable to break $130, or miners not following gold much higher yesterday. Corn and wheat also consolidated – right or wrong, the market seeks to anticipate some relief from Eastern Europe.The big picture though hasn‘t changed:(…) credit markets … posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains).And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, ......its downswing would contribute to providing the Fed with an excuse not to hike in Mar by 50bp. After the prior run up in the price of black gold that however renders such an excuse a verbal exercise only, the Fed remains between a rock and hard place, and the inflationary fires keep raging on.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is reaching for the Feb 24 lows, and may find respite at this level. The upper knot though would need a solid close today (above 4,250) to be of short-term significance. Remember, the market remains very much headline sensitive.Credit MarketsHYG clearly remains on the defensive, but the sellers may need a pause here, if volume is any guide. Bonds are getting beaten, and the outlook remains negative to neutral for the weeks ahead. Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals keep doing great, but a pause is knocking on the door. Not a reversal, a pause. Gold and silver are indeed the go-to assets in the current situation, and miners agree wholeheartedly.Crude OilCrude oil is having trouble extending gains, and the consolidation I mentioned yesterday, approaches. I do not think however that this is the end of the run higher.CopperCopper is pausing already, and this underperformer looks very well bid above $4.60. Let the red metal build a base, and continue rising next, alongside the rest of the crowd.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos upswing equals more risk appetite? It could be so, looking at the dollar‘s chart (I‘m talking that in the summary of today‘s analysis).SummaryEvery dog has its day, and the S&P 500‘s one might be coming today or tomorrow. It‘s that the safe havens of late (precious metals, commodities and the dollar) are having trouble extending prior steep gains further. These look to be in for a brief respite that would be amplified on any possible news of deescalation. In such an environment, risk taking would flourish at expense of gold, silver and oil especially. I don‘t think so we have seen the tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
How You Can Minimize Trading Risk & Grow Capital During A Global Crisis

How You Can Minimize Trading Risk & Grow Capital During A Global Crisis

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 09.03.2022 22:39
To minimize trading risk and grow capital during a global crisis is somewhat hinged on the answers to speculative questions. How long will the Russia – Ukraine war last? How high is the price of oil and gas going to go? How quickly will central banks raise interest rates to counter high inflation? What assets should I put my money into? Knowing what the Best Asset Now (BAN) is, is critical for risk management and consistent growth no matter the market condition!‘BUY THE DIP’ or ‘SELL THE RALLY’? - DJI Weekly ChartAs of 3/8/22, YTD returns are: DJIA -10.20%, S&P 500 -12.49%, Nasdaq 100 -18.70%The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded as high as 36952.65 on January 5, 2022The DJIA put in a Covid 2020 Low of 18213.65 on March 23, 2020. When you double the price of this significant low, you get a price of 36427.30, which the DJIA reached on November 4, 2021. This was precisely 591 calendar days from the 2020 low. The 200% level seems to have capped the bull rally. If, in fact, this is the top and the start of a bear market, we should experience high volatility both up and down. However, the highs and lows should be lower as the market begins to trend lower. The volatility will also continue to increase as the market deflates and continues to lose capital.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! It appears this scenario may very well coincide with the fundamental current events of high inflation, central banks unable to add stimulus, having to raise their interest rates, and current/future geopolitical events.What-To-Do Before the Storm Hits“Have A Plan and Stick-To-Your-Plan”There are some basic strategies or practices that professional traders utilize to minimize trading risk and grow capital. Here are a few ideas:Bull/Bear Markets – In an upmarket, you should buy the dips. In a down market, you should do the opposite and sell the rallies. Rallies in a down 'bear' market tend to be very fast and short-lived.Diversification – Don't have your eggs in too many baskets. It is better to navigate thru a storm by focusing your resources specifically rather than generally.Leverage – Reduce leverage, position size, or know how you will respond to different percentage losses or gains. Understand what your investment objective is as well as your tolerance for risk. If you're having trouble sleeping at night, you should reduce your holdings to the place where you are comfortable.Leverage is a mathematical equation, and it does not have to be 1x, 2x, etc. It can also be 0.75x, 0.50x, etc. You get to decide what's best for you and your family. Leverage is also a double-edged sword! Be careful, especially when the markets are on edge and volatile.Where is the Institutional Money Going?The global currency market, otherwise known as Forex or FX, is the largest market in the world. According to the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey, published on December 8, 2019, by the Bank for International Settlements, it has an average daily transactional volume of $6.6 trillion.By tracking global money flow, we can get a pretty good idea of where the smart money is going. For now, let’s see what has happened during the last 6-months.According to www.finviz.com, we notice that the US Dollar, despite its Covid stimulus spending spree, was the preferred currency. However, the Eurodollar has seen substantial outflows decreasing by -7.60%, which is entirely understandable with the Russia – Ukraine War at their doorstep.Global central banks ponder how quickly to raise interest rates in order to curb high inflation!According to TradingEconomics, the current global interest rates by major country are: United States 0.25%, Japan -0.10%, Switzerland -0.75%, Euro Region 0.00%, United Kingdom 0.50%, Canada 0.50%, and Australia 0.10%.The US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its next policy meeting. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16. We need to pay close attention to this high-impact market event.What strategies can help you minimize trading risk and grow capital?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Minimizing risk in order to grow your capital must remain a primary focus for all investors and traders. Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

Bitcoin Price Charts: BTC/XAUUSD And BTCUSDT - 15/03/22

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 15.03.2022 14:39
Bitcoin is needed as an alternative   The weakened US-Dollar and the present unexpected climate seems not being fully reflected in bitcoin´s price. Consequently, bitcoin prices could soar in the not too distant future. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, bottom building: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. A phenomenon in times of crisis is that individuals look for absolutes or extremes to resolve difficult circumstances. We instead advocate a more principle-based process of solving problems, an approach of choices. Regarding wealth preservation, this would mean gold and silver alongside bitcoin. The daily chart of the bitcoin/gold-ratio shows the bottom building after a downtrend. Currently, one can purchase a bitcoin for twenty ounces of gold. Nearly half as much as five months ago. Indeed, an opportunity to rotate one’s precious metal holding partially into a cheap bitcoin acquisition.     Bitcoin, monthly chart, in waiting position: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 15th, 2022. War inherently divides nations, and that does not mean limiting only the ones directly in conflict with each other. It is this divide that, in addition, fuels the competition for each nation to be first in their digital currency release. Sanctioned countries have limited access to the US-Dollar. Consequently, they are highly motivated to create an alternate payment method. The monthly chart is not showing this fundamental support for bitcoin. Early signs of a triangle show that we find likely to break to the upside. Slow stochastic indicator reading (A) shows that the last time around at these levels, a strong up move followed. Similar to the yellow CCI turbo line-level reading (B). Before such a move, we witnessed a quick price spike down (C), which would be no surprise. Bitcoin, weekly chart, bitcoin as an alternative is needed: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 15th, 2022. Zooming into the weekly time frame, we can make out the battle between bulls and bears in more detail. Over the last three weeks, prices were rejected above the POC (point of control = high volume node, where our volume profile analysis ranges over the previous fifteen months). As well, price behavior is reflecting the war climate’s uncertainty. At the same time, the bulls have held steady any attempt of the bears trying to push prices below US$37,500. Hence, we should see a substantial move once trading snaps out of this “magnet trading” to the high-volume node. Bitcoin, daily chart, gains and volatility: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. The daily chart of bitcoin above describes how we see the future unfold. We anticipate the price to reach all-time highs within the upcoming month. Unfortunately, not in bitcoins typical swing trading manner. We foresee a choppy, volatile market. Consequently, short and midterm trading will be challenging. Stepping up in time frame is a helpful approach to avoid the noise. Bitcoin is needed as an alternative: Governments will try to keep their monopolies and power. However, we don’t think that the adoption of a digital dollar by the masses will not be that easy. We find this especially true to be in a highly transitory time of rapid changes and many challenges. Typically, multiple propaganda waves through media have bridged such doubt but might have lost some of its trustworthiness. Consequently, bitcoin has a fair chance for mass adoption just as well. It already has a history and carries inherent features of freedom that people might long for more than anticipated.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 15th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold?

Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 16.03.2022 16:43
  Crude oil continues to decline due to lowered demand, and the petrodollar seems threatened, losing interest. What is the best strategy to take now?  Oil prices kept falling this week, driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and a potential slowdown in the Giant Panda’s (China) economic growth due to epidemic lockdowns in some regions where a surge of Omicron was observed. As I mentioned in my previous article, India considers getting Russian crude oil supplies and other commodities at a reduced price by settling transactions through a rupee/rouble payment system. Meanwhile, we keep getting rumors – notably reported by The Wall Street Journal – that Saudi Arabia and China are also currently discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports directly in yuan. The Chinese are actively seeking to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and this latest development suggests that the petrodollar is now under threat. US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) The recent correction in crude oil, happening just seven days after reaching its 14-year highs, might show some signs that the conflict in Ukraine will slow down consumption. On the other hand, if Iranian and Venezuelan barrels flooded the market, we could see crude oil, petroleum products, and distillates turning into new bear markets. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) That’s all folks for today – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Here's your first look at Cyberpunk: Edgerunners! Coming to Netflix this September!

AMC Stock Price: AMC Entertainment spikes 8% on Wednesday

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.03.2022 08:29
AMC stock gains on Tuesday as equities and growth stocks rally. More gains are likely on Wednesday for AMC shares as peace hopes rise for Ukraine. AMC Entertainment also saw increased attention from its investment in Hycroft Mining. AMC shares are up 8% to $15.65 as better prospects for peace in Ukraine seem to be lifting up the entire market. The Nasdaq has risen an optimistic 2.7% about one hour into Wednesday's session. Further positivity is in motion with the start of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee two-day meeting that is expected to usher in a 25 basis point rise in the fed funds rate. The rise in interest rates should slow this year's hike in inflation. This price action is certainly exciting for AMC apes, who have witnessed AMC stock drop to the low $13s earlier this week. AMC Entertainment did benefit in Tuesday's afternoon session from its acquisition of Hycroft Mining, but it seems the stock is gaining more interest on Wednesday for this buy. Now its acquisition target, HYMC, has seen its shares go in the opposite direction on Wednesday. HYMC stock is trading down 9% at $1.37 at the time of writing. AMC stock closed higher on Tuesday as investors took comfort from the continued collapse in oil prices and hoped for some form of peace in Ukraine. It was oil that was the big driver for equity markets, and growth stock, in particular, bounced hard as this sector had seen the bigger losses since the year began. It is hard to see guess whether this movie can be sustained long term though as yields have once again moved up. This should stall growth stocks. A peace deal would see further gains for all sectors, but then these may be capped if yields keep rising. The Fed decision later on Wednesday will give us more clarity on this. AMC Stock News The big news yesterday though for AMC apes was the investment in Hycroft Mining by AMC. This was right out of left field and remains a puzzling one to say the least. Hycroft Mining is a gold and silver miner with one mine in Nevada. The company has not turned a profit since 2013 and last November said it may need to raise capital to meet future financial obligations. The company also laid off over half of its workforce at the mine last November. This is a pretty high-risk investment and perhaps AMC and AMC apes are used to that. It was only a small outlet as CEO adam Aron alluded to. Nevertheless, the Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock price soared as retail investors piled into the name. By the opening of the regular session on Tuesday, HYMC stock was trading nearly 100% higher, but it closed only 9% higher at $1.52 having traded up to $2.97. The reason for the dramatic turnaround was probably a bit of reality set into investors once they had a look at Hycroft Mining and its financial condition. The main reason was a Bloomberg report saying that Hycroft Mining could do a $500 million share sale by as early as next Tuesday. We understand the sale is ongoing and being led by B.Riley Securities. AMC Stock Forecast We were quite negative on this deal on Tuesday and remain so. At least it is not a big investment for AMC, but it still reads poorly. This will not endear AMC stock to further credibility in our view. CNBC carried out a report yesterday about the surge in price and volume trading in HYMC stock before the AMC announcement: "Small mining firm with troubled history saw big spikes in stock price, trading volume ahead of AMC deal." Tuesday's move took AMC back up to our resistance level at $14.54, which was a key breakdown level. Below this and AMC remains bearish. Above $14.54 is neutral. We remain bearish on AMC with a target price of $8.95. AMC stock chart, daily Prior Update: AMC stock opened higher on Wednesday as the stock market remains on edge over the potential for some form of a peace deal in Ukraine. Oil prices falling sharply has also helped investor sentiment. AMC is currently trading at $14.77 for a gain of exactly 2% after 5 minutes of the regular session on Tuesday. Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock is trading 4% lower at the same stage on Wednesday. Later we get the Fed interest rate decision which may hamper more progress from growth stocks but for now, it is full steam ahead. AMC is back among the top trending stocks on social media sites and interest seems high. $14.54 remains a key level for AMC to hold above if it wants to have put a bottom formation in place. Otherwise, it will return to the bearish trend and look to target $8.95 in our view.
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

March 22nd, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.03.2022 19:44
Bitcoin´s time to go   Trying to pick tops and bottoms is honorable and a desirable goal. Nevertheless, there needs to be other insurances and principles in place. If an ideal spot passes or the market doesn’t provide for a low-risk entry or enough liquidity for an exit, one still needs alternate tools to participate in the market. Our quad exit strategy allows for position building and market participation that consistently extracts monies from the markets. Bitcoin, daily chart, keep calm and keep trading: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Precision trading gets even more difficult in wartimes, when frequent and conflicting news events jolt prices alternating up and down. The daily chart above shows these jolts over the last three weeks of wartime. We can identify three low-risk long trade entry opportunities (green up arrows on double bottom price scenarios) and one short trading one (red downward arrow at a double top price formation). Our quad exit strategy takes on each of these trades a partial initial profit to mitigate risk, which allows the remainder position size to be the market’s money at risk only.     Bitcoin, weekly chart, pushing up: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Zooming out to larger time frames is another way to avoid noise and see a trading scenario more clearly, and, as such, find “go times” with more accuracy. This weekly chart illustrates that entries and exits are rather entry zones (red and green boxes) versus a precise price level. The trader’s goal is to exploit within such a zone a low-risk entry spot on a lower time frame to get positioned. Regarding bitcoin, we find overall price behavior to be up sloping over the last twelve months, a bullish notion. And we find a high likelihood for the momentary entry zone (green box to the right of the chart). In other words, we are right now in a price zone where its Bitcoin´s time to go. Bitcoin, monthly chart, March closing price: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Suppose we further remove ourselves from the noise by electing a higher timeframe. In that case, we find a pat situation on the monthly chart, pat not for a more significant edge for prices to go higher up but for timing on when to enter the markets. Our statistics show that it will be essential on what price level the month of March will be closing. With a close above current levels (white line), we will enter a bullish buy zone. Yet, if prices decline from here in the last nine days of this month, the probabilities of an immediate price advance rapidly decline. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin´s time to go: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. An additional benefit quiet charting provides in turbulent times is to think outside the box. While all noise points toward the most heated issues, finding a trading opportunity elsewhere might be best. In our previous chart book release, we exploited a great go time for bitcoin. Last week, we provided entry points (green up arrows) for rotating one’s gold into bitcoin. Using our quad exit strategy, the trader who wanted to not expose his money to a volatile fiat currency trading world could profit near ten percent on his first fifty percent of position size. We are now placing the stop for the remainder position size to breakeven entry levels. Bitcoin´s time to go: In war, the first casualty is the truth. Under stress, our minds insist on reason, clarity, precise calls for action. Unfortunately, even the best-informed brightest minds can’t find reliable data in times of war since the distortion field of media around the world is at a level where lies and propaganda outweigh facts and truth.  Luckily, a trader can, in these times, rely more heavily on charts. Charts always encompass the sum of opinion. Charts are consistently working as a reliable source to trade from.  The psychological aspect is hugely beneficial since a consistent bombardment of news and everybody’s opinion can get quickly exhausting.  Reduce news data consumption at a time when calm and levelheadedness is the most powerful tool for wealth creation and preservation, and the “go time” will reveal itself nearly effortlessly.     Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
US manufacturing order books and inflation pressures are softening

Natural Gas Price Rises As Triggered By Putin’s Rhetoric That He Will ‘Demand Rouble Gas Payments’

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 24.03.2022 12:47
According to Investing.com Russia could require gas payment in roubles what clearly affects both Forex pairs (e.g. EUR/RUB) and natural gas price (TTF) which has increased by 31%. What’s more MOEX is back to the game after such a long break. Some companies have gained significantly already and many would like to know what’s ahead. Generally speaking Russian currency and Russia-associated markets are really volatile at the moment and there are many assets to watch in the following days. Let’s begin with natural gas price. Obviously monthly chart (yes, it’s been one month since the warfare started) shows the fluctuations caused by the start of invasion which took place on February 24th We may say that the true rise came few days later, as negotiations of cease-fire haven’t changed a thing and sanctions have begun to impact the markets. Further developments containing some signals of a ceasefire appeared not to coincide with the reality heading price of natural gas to a next rise. Natural Gas Price Chat (TTF) – monthly 24/02-23/03 - +31% Natural Gas Price Chart (TTF) Daily 22-23/03/22 +18.5% Russian Roubel (RUB) – Forex Charts +11% Monthly chart shows a huge decline and strengthening of RUB. EUR/RUB Chart - Monthly +6% EUR/RUB Chart - Daily (24h) Source/Data: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com  
Russian oil and gas divestment forms a steady upward price trend

Russian oil and gas divestment forms a steady upward price trend

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.03.2022 10:43
Oil and gas remain hot topics in the markets. Although these energy prices have corrected from their recent highs, the uptrend promised to be with us as long as there are no signs of de-escalation in Ukraine. Moreover, high energy prices are turning into a new reality that could stay with us for years to come.While most news headlines focus on spot gas price developments in Europe, an upward trend has also emerged in the US. This trend has intensified over the past ten days amid discussions about cutting gas supplies from Russia.Biden urged Europe to increase its US liquefied natural gas purchases, even though supplies were already double the previous year's level. Putin's demand to be paid for Russian gas in roubles makes these purchases as uncomfortable as possible. Such a move would accelerate Europe's rejection of Russian energy, proving to voters in the region that they cannot rely on Russian power.The demand for alternative gas from the US and the Middle East is growing. And this demand promises to be a long-term trend. Even in the event of a military de-escalation in the coming weeks, attitudes towards Russia in Europe and the US will be tainted for years, and European countries will continue their economically unprofitable reliance on gas from Russia.The US has all but tapped its spare capacity to produce and supply gas to Europe. It will take time to expand, so competition among buyers is now gaining momentum.Much of the same applies to Russian oil, which is exported at 4 million BPD and, with political will, could be fully substituted in less than a year. OPEC is not showing the necessary will and is in no hurry to take Russia's share of the global oil trade.While oil and gas consumers in Europe and some Asian countries are cutting back as much as possible on purchases from Russia, energy prices on global markets continue to rise. At the same time, the discount for spot prices for Russian oil and gas remains exceptionally high.Reducing Russia's 30% share of Europe's gas supply is painful and long-term. Finding a new balance could take several quarters or even years, during which energy prices will remain above long-term average levels or occasionally spike.
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Charts - Daily, Monthly, BTC/GOLD - 29/03/22

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.03.2022 11:35
Bitcoin wins the race   While Russia accepts hard currencies like gold, a move like this shows that the efficient attributes of bitcoin come to the forefront in times of crisis and are accepted for large business transactions between nations. Bitcoin, daily chart, price breakout: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 29th, 2022. Shortly after, president Putin confirmed this new way of doing business. In addition, China and Russia agreed to a thirty-year contract in the gas sector, transacted in Euros. We can see that we find ourselves in times of currency warfare and that it is essential to pay close attention to where and in what form we store our values. The daily chart above reflects this recent news in a price advance of bitcoin from US$37,567 to US$47,701. A 28% advance in just two weeks. Bitcoin broke through the sideways range, and this week shall show whether this breakout will be a successful one or not. In this case, the bulls have their odds much in favor over the bears.     Bitcoin, weekly chart, price left the station: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2022. We have now left the entry zone (green box) compared to last week’s chart book and the published weekly chart. While the crowd now chases a trade, struggling with the typical inefficiencies of volatility breakouts (bad fills, slippage, being late), we are established in our positioning with the sum of 9 accumulated runners. The runners being the last 25% of each initial position. A fully de-risked or more precisely no-risk venture (see quad exit)! Looking at the weekly chart, we find the resistance distribution zones at around US$49,650 and US$52,430. We place additional entries if the price returns to the entry box top. Bitcoin, monthly chart, if March closes strong: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 28th, 2022. The price has entered the confirmed buy zone from a monthly perspective. The dual chart shows the progression from last week’s anticipation to this week’s chart book release. Should prices within this week stay within the green box, all-time frames are in alignment. A picture of a confirmed bullish bitcoin trend. It is a rare occurrence and confirmation for larger time frame traders and a call to look for low-risk entries, if no sufficient exposure is at play yet. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin wins the race: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 28th, 2022. Another split-screen view of a chart (a daily chart of the bitcoin/gold ratio) shows the progression of last week’s chart book publication and the situation right now. We had a triangle breakout last week and a substantial advance since then. The suggested rotation out of gold and into bitcoin was/is a successful one. The overall move was 30% in just two weeks. One can use this relationship as well to indicate bitcoins’ recent gain in strength and direction. Bitcoin wins the race: Change is never accepted lightly. We typically resist change and prefer an existing state of affairs as human beings. Nevertheless, we find ourselves in less than average circumstances with a worldwide pandemic, a never-ending war, and a general divide in opinions. Russia’s recent move towards approval of bitcoin shows that when the rubber meets the road, what works and is practical in times of crisis and need, wins the race. While governments around the globe feverishly try to get their electronic payment systems developed, bitcoin already finds its use spreading, and successfully so.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 29th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
The Rules, Part LXXII

The Rules, Part LXXII

David Merkel David Merkel 26.03.2022 05:21
Picture Credit: Kailash Gyawali || There are times when despair is rational “There are two hard things in trading — buying higher, and selling lower.” Currently I am selling out my position in an illiquid stock. I am patient, but I can tell that my selling is having an impact on the market. Back when I was a corporate bond manager, I quickly learned that I had to scale in and out of positions. Even for the most commonly traded bonds, the market isn’t that liquid. While not lying to the brokers, learning to disguise your intentions, or at least frame them properly took some effort. One method I commonly used worked like this: “We need some cash. If you have someone wanting to buy $2-5 million, we will offer these at the 10-year Treasury + 150 basis points, $6-10 million T10 + 140 bps, and if they want to buy the whole wad (say 20-30 million), T10 + 125 basis points. Prices would ascend with size in selling. Prices would descend with size in buying, particularly for troubled bonds that we liked. Usually the brokers appreciated the supply or demand curves that I gave them. Frequently I ended up selling the “the wad,” which we were usually selling because our credit analyst had a reason. But life is not always so happy. Sometimes you have an asset that either you or the organization has concluded is a dud. Many people think it is a dud. How do you sell it? Should you sell it? There are options: you could hold an auction, but I will tell you if you do that, play it straight. Your reputation is worth far more than if the auction succeeds or not. You can set a reservation price but if the auction doesn’t sell, you will lose some face. Or you can test the market, selling in onesies an twosies ($1-2 million) seeing if there is any demand, and expand from there if you can. What I tended to do was go to my most trusted broker on a given bond and say, “I don’t have to sell this, but we need cash. Could you sound out those who own the bonds and see what they might like to buy a few million?” If we get an interested party, we can sound them out on buying more a an attractive price. But life can be worse, imagine trying to sell the bonds of Enron post default. Yes, I had to do that. And I had to sell them at lower and lower prices. (Kind of like the time I got trapped with a wad of Disney 30-year bonds.) And there is the opposite. You want to have a position in an attractive company, and you can’t get them at any reasonable price. You could give up. You could “do half.” Or you could chase it and get the full position, only to regret it. If you invest with an eye toward valuations, this will always be a challenge. All that said, if you focus on quality, these issues probably won’t hurt you as much. In any case, do what must be done. If something must be bought, buy it as cheaply as possible. If something must be sold, sell it as dearly as you can. Hide your intentions, while offering deals. In doing so, you may very well realize the most value.
Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses

Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 13.05.2022 07:19
Well, what can we say about this last week? It was a horrific week on the crypto boards, with most coins plunging. The selling got going last weekend and peaked with a real market crash on Thursday. 200 billion of value was wiped off just on Thursday’s session alone. Bitcoin hit 25,338 USD at its lowest point on Thursday, and Ethereum touched $1702, setting new year lows. The rout wasn’t just about those two. The top 25 index coin index we quote cashed by 45.18% to its low on Thursday. Why did this happen? As the week went on, a few stories started to emerge. UST was the main influence, and it had a catastrophic effect on Terra Luna, which we will get to later. UST is a stable coin; these coins are meant to be pegged in value to the USD and, in theory, should be at the 1:1 value. UST is a little different as it’s an algorithmic stable coin under-pinned by code rather than cash held in reserve. This is where the trouble began. As UST fell under $1 the cracks opened and fear set in. Selling accelerated, and its value slipped down to .41 cents. This had disastrous consequences for its sister currency Terra Luna which has a floating price and was designed to absorb UST price shocks. Terra crashed on UST failure to hold value and ended Thursday’s session under 1 US cent. We’re talking at 99% plunge! This was catastrophic for traders and investors that owned LUNA as many exchanges slowed to craw trying to deal with the mass of sell orders hitting the exchanges. Pressure on bitcoin, the Luna Foundation owned a mass of bitcoin used to shore up terra in times of crisis. Talk suggested large amounts had been sold to deal with the terra issue and this compounded/added to the panic selling that session. The story continues, tether the world’s largest stable coin, also dipped below $1 US, sending a shock through the markets of a contagion. This added to the panic. It’s difficult to tell what may happen next, but from watching the events this week, it’s important you remain vigilant as this volatility continues. I’m not an industry expert, but from watching the events this week, it’s something that came to my mind.This week’s focus is a sad one, but we can’t skip over Terra Luna. I’m not going to say much more on it as the meat is above. It’s a terrible event as, yes, some might think it’s cool to see markets destroyed, but there’s a personal loss in there as many investors believed in terra and now may face very unfortunate situations. The post Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses appeared first on Eightcap.
Concealing Volatility

Concealing Volatility

David Merkel David Merkel 05.06.2022 05:24
Photo Credit: Marco Verch Professional Photographer || With some private investments, you can’t tell what the value truly is. Third party professional help occasionally assists dishonesty Part of my career was based on concealing volatility. I sold Guaranteed Investment Contracts. I helped design and manage several different types of stable value funds. Life insurance contracts get valued at their book value, regardless of what the replacement cost of an equivalent contract would be like presently. Anytime an investment pool with no current market price has a book value above the underlying value of the investments that it holds, there is risk to those holding the investment pool. The amount of risk can be small yet significant with some types of money market funds. It can be considerably larger in certain types of pooled investments like: Various types of business partnerships, including Private REITs, Real Estate Partnerships, Private Equity, etc.Illiquid debts, such as private credit funds, and notes with limited marketability, whether structured or not.Odd mutual funds that limit withdrawals because they offer “guarantees” of a sort. That applies to Variable Annuities with riders offering guaranteed benefits, if the life insurer becomes insolvent.One-off investment liquid partnerships that are secretive and unusual, like Madoff. The underlying may be illiquid, but the accounting may be fraudulent. Or, the accounting may be fine, but the assets listed are not what is in custody. (With small funds, analyze the auditor, trustees, and custodian.)The value of a company touted by a SPAC promoter may be worth considerably less than what is illustrated.Any investment in public equity or debt pool where the positions are concentrated, and they own a high percentage of the float, or a high amount of the securities relative to the amount that gets traded in an average month. Think of Third Avenue Focused Credit, or Archegos. I have consistently encouraged readers to “look through” their pooled investments, and consider what the underlying is worth. If you only have a vague idea of what the underlying investments are, look at their public equivalents. A rising tide lifts almost all boats, and a falling tide does the opposite. There is a conceit within private equity, private credit and private real estate funds that they are less risky; there is no volatility, because we cannot produce an NAV. They have the same volatility as the publicly traded funds, but the volatility is concealed. If trouble hits the public markets 50-75% of the way through the life of a private fund, it will have difficulty selling their investments at levels anywhere near the book value previously claimed by the sponsors. With consent of the limited partners, perhaps they extend the life of the fund to try to recover value, but that also imposes an opportunity cost on holders who were expecting proceeds from the fund on schedule. Remember as well that in a scenario like 1929-1932, private funds will be wiped out with similarly leveraged private funds. Aleph Blog has consistently warned about the possibility of depression, plague, war, famine, bad monetary policy and aggressive socialism. We have gotten plague, war, and bad monetary policy. Famine in a sense may come from the Ukraine war and trade restrictions on Russia, at least for the African countries that buy from them. Thus I encourage readers to avoid private investments that promise no volatility, like the stupid ads for Equity Multiple that run on Bloomberg Radio. All investments involve some type of risk. Just because you can’t or don’t measure the risk doesn’t mean that there is no risk. Don’t listen to investment sales pitches which tell you to avoid the volatility of the public equity and debt markets, when they are taking the exact same risks in the private market, and they cannot or will not measure the risks for you, no matter how thick or thin the “disclosure” document is. There is no significant advantage in the private market over the public market. Indeed, the reverse may be true. (Yes, I meant all of the ambiguity there.) Look to the underlying, and invest accordingly. Look at fees, and try to minimize them. Prize transparency, because it reduces risk in the long run. Those who are honest are transparent.