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On Monday, the GBP/USD pair managed to show even lower volatility than the EUR/USD pair, with only 37 pips. Therefore, there is no point in analyzing the movements because there simply weren't any.     The entire day was characterized by absolute flatness, which is not surprising given the complete absence of fundamental and macroeconomic events, as well as the status of a holiday in the US.   The downward trend remains intact, so nothing has changed for the pound and the dollar: the latter should continue to rise. There are currently no trend lines or channels due to the weak movement, but there is no doubt about the downtrend.     If you tried really hard you could find one signal on the 5-minute chart. At the beginning of the European trading session, the pair technically bounced off the range of 1.2351-1.2367 but failed to move down even by 20 pips, which is not surprising considering the overall volatility of 37 pips.   Beginners could have opened a short position based on this signal, but by the start of the US session, the pair hardly moved, so the trade could have been closed practically anywhere with zero profit. Trading tips on   Tuesday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade lower, but in the past few days, we have observed more low-volatility flatness than trending movement. We continue to expect further decline as we believe that the pound has not fallen sufficiently strong yet.   The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2171-1.2179, 1.2245-1.2260, 1.2351-1.2367, 1.2420, 1.2470, 1.2507-1.2520, 1.2597-1.2616. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. On Tuesday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the UK or the US.   We are in for another completely dull day. Volatility may be low again, and there may be a lack of intraday trending movement. Basic rules of the trading system: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross.   This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.   Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair.   Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable.   The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

On Friday, there will be a few macroeconomic reports, but all of them will be very important. Neither the European Union nor the United Kingdom will issue data today. All the information will come from the US. There will be three reports, two of which are of the highest significance. Nonfarm Payrolls show the number of jobs created in a month outside the agricultural sector. This is a key labor market indicator. It is expected that 180-190 thousand jobs were created in May. Any number lower than this will be considered negative.       The unemployment rate is the second key labor market indicator. It is expected that by the end of May, the rate will increase to 3.5%. However, even 3.6% should not shock traders as it is still a very low value, close to the lowest one recorded 50 years ago. The average hourly earnings is the last report that will be issued today.   This indicator has a direct impact on the inflation rate. The annual increase in wages should not exceed the previous month's value. However, this data is less significant than the first two reports. Analysis of fundamental events:     There are no fundamental events planned for Friday. In recent days, both pairs have been showing a persistent desire to grow, which is not always justified by specific factors. If the growth in the euro makes sense, the pound's appreciation is raising many questions. However, the short-term trend has changed to ascending for both pairs. Thus, further growth can be expected unless the reports from the US are much stronger than the forecasts.   General conclusions: On Friday, there will be two important reports. Both of them will be published at the start of the US trading session. There will be no important events in the first half of the day. Also, yesterday, it was reported that the US House of Representatives approved an increase in the debt ceiling. Thus, there will be no default in the US. Yesterday's fall in the dollar was partially caused by this event. However, it is not logical. The market could have priced in the approval of the increase (since there were no other options, really), and now it could be benefiting from short orders. Nevertheless, we still expect a stronger drop from the euro and the pound.   Basis trading rules: 1) The strength of a signal is judged by the time it took to form the signal (a bounce or overcoming level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal is. 2) If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored. 3) In a flat market, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or not form them at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat movement, it is better to stop trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the US one when all trades should be manually closed. 5) In the 30-minute period, you can trade using signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.     What we see on the chart: Price levels of support and resistance are levels that act as targets when opening buy or sell orders. Take profit levels can be placed near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate in which direction it is preferable to trade now. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and signal line, that is an auxiliary indicator, which can also be used as a source of signals. Important speeches and reports (always included in the macroeconomic calendar) can have a significant influence on the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, you should trade with maximum caution or exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that not every trade can be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are key to success in long-term trading.      

The GBP/USD pair traded lower for most of Monday, clearly indicating a desire to resume its downtrend. However, the ISM non-manufacturing business activity index in the US spoiled the bearish sentiment. It's worth noting that the volatility today reached 84 pips, nearly double that of the euro.     Therefore, trading the pound was possible today, and we will discuss the signals in more detail below. For now, it should be noted that the downward trend has been broken as the pair recently surpassed two descending trendlines. From a technical perspective, a short-term rise is possible, but from the same technical standpoint, a decline should be expected in the medium term. The current situation is not entirely clear, and the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop this week is unlikely to assist traders.       There were some trading signals on the 5-minute chart, although they weren't great. The first sell signal was formed overnight, but by the opening of the European session, the pair was at the point of formation. Therefore, a sell trade could confidently be opened.   Later, the price dropped to the level of 1.2386 and bounced off it. It was appropriate to close the shorts (with a profit of about 25 pips) and open long positions. The buy signal turned out to be false, as did the subsequent sell signal. These two signals "ate up" all the profit from the first trade and also forced us to remove the level of 1.2386 and replace it with 1.2372. It was not advisable to trade the last signal around 1.2372 as the first two proved to be false.   Trading tips on Tuesday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair has ended its downtrend and started a new uptrend in the short-term. We believe that the pound has not fallen enough to form a new strong uptrend, but the market may have a different opinion. There are a couple of important data scheduled for release this week, so we recommend analyzing higher charts to understand the potential direction of the price.   The key levels on the 5M chart are .2171-1.2179, 1.2245, 1.2307, 1.2372, 1.2445, 1.2507-1.2520, 1.2597-1.2616, 1.2659, 1.2697. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. The UK will release its Construction PMI on Tuesday, which could potentially provoke a market reaction. However, the chances of that are still low. The economic calendar is empty in the US.   Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

Analyzing Tuesday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart   On Tuesday, GBP/USD went through low volatility and messy movements. In general, the pound's movements were the same as those of the EUR/USD pair. The market reaction to the reports was also similar, except that the European ZEW indexes were not related to the British pound. However, it had its own data in the form of reports on unemployment, wages, and unemployment benefit claims. In our opinion, the pound should have fallen not risen in response to the British reports in the first half of the day, as two of the three reports turned out to be worse than forecasts. Unemployment increased, and the number of benefit claims was higher than expected. However, the wage report, which showed a sharp growth rate, tipped the balance. As a result, the pair continued to correct after rebounding from the 1.2620 level, but before that, it was in a sideways channel for two weeks and simply returned to it. We don't expect the pound to start an uptrend. GBP/USD on 5M chart   Several trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart. The pair spent the entire day between the levels of 1.2688 and 1.2748, regularly rebounding from them. Volatility was 78 points. There is no point in analyzing each individual signal, as they were almost identical. Beginners had to decide for themselves whether they wanted to scalp between levels, the distance between which is 30-35 points. As we can see, the price regularly bounced from these levels, which means that none of them was unnecessary. We witnessed such a movement on Tuesday. Since most of the signals turned out to be right, it was possible to earn a decent amount, but we do not see much sense in opening 10 trades with a potential profit of 10 points each.   Trading tips on Wednesday: On the 30-minute chart, the GBP/USD pair may be in a flat position. However, we insist that the pound fall, as we still believe it is overbought and unreasonably expensive. Not all of this week's reports may support the dollar, so we may see messy movements in the sideways channel. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2499, 1.2538, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2653, 1.2688, 1.2715, 1.2748, 1.2787-1.2791, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913. Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, you can set the stop-loss at breakeven. On Wednesday, the UK is set to release an inflation report, and this is the main item for the day. If it turns out that inflation is rising or falling more slowly than expected, the pound may jump.   Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.  

Overview of macroeconomic reports There are hardly any important reports on Friday. The euro area will release its final assessment of inflation for July, which is unlikely to differ from the preliminary assessment. Therefore, we do not expect any reaction to this data. The UK will publish a retail sales report, which is not that important. Therefore, we do not expect a strong market reaction to this report. Therefore, there will be no important events on Friday, and both pairs will likely continue their relatively weak movements. The pound is in a sideways channel, and the euro is in a weak downtrend.   Overview of fundamental events There is absolutely nothing to highlight among the fundamental events. No speeches by officials of the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, or the European Central Bank. Therefore, the market will focus on the macro data, but there are hardly any of those as well. It seems that we are in for another muted day.   Bottom line On Friday, we are expecting rather boring trades. We don't expect strong movements from either the pound or the euro, but that does not mean that they will not happen. Take note that the market can trade without reference to the fundamental and macroeconomic background. Main rules of the trading system: The strength of the signal is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce/drop or overcoming the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level due to false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored. In a flat market, any currency pair can generate a lot of false signals or not generate them at all. But in any case, as soon as the first signs of a flat market are detected, it is better to stop trading. Trades are opened in the time interval between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American one when all trades must be closed manually. On the 30-minute timeframe, you can trade based on MACD signals only on the condition of good volatility and provided that a trend is confirmed by the trend line or a trend channel. If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), they should be considered as an area of support or resistance. Comments on charts Support and resistance levels are levels that serve as targets when opening long or short positions. Take Profit orders can be placed around them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is preferable for trading now. The MACD (14,22,3) indicator, both histogram and signal line, is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals. Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with utmost caution or to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.