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On Monday, the GBP/USD pair managed to show even lower volatility than the EUR/USD pair, with only 37 pips. Therefore, there is no point in analyzing the movements because there simply weren't any.     The entire day was characterized by absolute flatness, which is not surprising given the complete absence of fundamental and macroeconomic events, as well as the status of a holiday in the US.   The downward trend remains intact, so nothing has changed for the pound and the dollar: the latter should continue to rise. There are currently no trend lines or channels due to the weak movement, but there is no doubt about the downtrend.     If you tried really hard you could find one signal on the 5-minute chart. At the beginning of the European trading session, the pair technically bounced off the range of 1.2351-1.2367 but failed to move down even by 20 pips, which is not surprising considering the overall volatility of 37 pips.   Beginners could have opened a short position based on this signal, but by the start of the US session, the pair hardly moved, so the trade could have been closed practically anywhere with zero profit. Trading tips on   Tuesday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade lower, but in the past few days, we have observed more low-volatility flatness than trending movement. We continue to expect further decline as we believe that the pound has not fallen sufficiently strong yet.   The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2171-1.2179, 1.2245-1.2260, 1.2351-1.2367, 1.2420, 1.2470, 1.2507-1.2520, 1.2597-1.2616. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. On Tuesday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the UK or the US.   We are in for another completely dull day. Volatility may be low again, and there may be a lack of intraday trending movement. Basic rules of the trading system: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross.   This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.   Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair.   Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable.   The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

There will be limited macro data on Monday, but the fact that there will be some is already a good sign. Mondays often lack both fundamental news and macroeconomics, which negatively affects the nature of movements and volatility. Tomorrow, business activity indices in the service sectors will be published in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States.   We cannot say that these are extravagant data, especially since they will be the second estimates for May. In other words, the market is already familiar with the preliminary estimates. The business activity index in the UK and the ISM index in the US can be considered somewhat important.   However, unexpected values or deviations from forecasts are needed to trigger a market reaction. Without such influence, there won't be much impact on traders' sentiment.     There will be limited macro data on Monday, but the fact that there will be some is already a good sign. Mondays often lack both fundamental news and macroeconomics, which negatively affects the nature of movements and volatility. Tomorrow, business activity indices in the service sectors will be published in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States.   We cannot say that these are extravagant data, especially since they will be the second estimates for May.   In other words, the market is already familiar with the preliminary estimates. The business activity index in the UK and the ISM index in the US can be considered somewhat important. However, unexpected values or deviations from forecasts are needed to trigger a market reaction. Without such influence, there won't be much impact on traders' sentiment.     Analysis of fundamental events: No significant fundamental events are scheduled for Monday. Both currency pairs corrected downwards on Friday, but the short-term upward trends are still intact. However, in the medium-term, a further decline in the euro and the pound is more likely. We believe it is advisable to pay attention to higher charts at the moment. In our weekend articles, we extensively discussed the key points to watch for in the coming week. We recommend reviewing those articles.     General conclusions: Monday will have few important events, but some of the reports may influence market sentiment and consequently affect the movement of major currency pairs. It is crucial to understand the medium-term direction of the euro and the pound this week.   As we have mentioned before, a short-term upward trend has formed, but a downward trend still persists in the longer term. Therefore, the battle between bulls and bears this week will not only be interesting but also significant. Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.   5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross.   This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable.   The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.  

The GBP/USD pair exhibited identical movements on Friday. It remained flat during the European trading session and experienced a decline during the American session. Therefore, there is no need to repeat the details. The strengthening of the US currency was naturally triggered by the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which significantly exceeded expectations.   However, the downward trendline (the second one) was previously breached, technically making the current trend upward. Nevertheless, we still don't see any reasons for the British currency to show growth in the medium-term perspective, so we expect a new decline in the pair. There were no important publications or events in the UK, and the pair demonstrated logically consistent movements on Friday.     On the 5-minute chart, the trading signals on Friday were not the best due to the flatness during the first half of the day. Only one signal was formed during that time, which was a buying signal near the level of 1.2520, and it should have been closed with the opening of the American trading session, as important data was expected to be released in the US, which could have caused the pair to move in any direction.   Immediately after the release of the data, a buying signal was formed in the range of 1.2507-1.2520, but it should have been ignored as the values of the US reports clearly favored the dollar. However, the next selling signal could and should have been traded. Eventually, the price dropped to the level of 1.2445, where short positions should have been closed. The profit amounted to approximately 40 pips.     Trading tips on Monday:   As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair has ended its downward trend and started a new upward trend in the short-term perspective. We believe that the pound has not fallen enough to form a new strong uptrend, but the market may have a different opinion. There will be limited important statistics next week, so we recommend studying higher charts to understand the potential direction of the price. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2171-1.2179, 1.2245, 1.2307, 1.2386, 1.2445, 1.2507-1.2520, 1.2597-1.2616, 1.2659, 1.2697. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. On Monday, the UK has only scheduled the release of the Services PMI, which may provoke a reaction. In the US, there will also be business activity indices in the service sector, including the ISM index, which is considered important.   1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross.   This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.  

The GBP/USD pair traded lower for most of Monday, clearly indicating a desire to resume its downtrend. However, the ISM non-manufacturing business activity index in the US spoiled the bearish sentiment. It's worth noting that the volatility today reached 84 pips, nearly double that of the euro.     Therefore, trading the pound was possible today, and we will discuss the signals in more detail below. For now, it should be noted that the downward trend has been broken as the pair recently surpassed two descending trendlines. From a technical perspective, a short-term rise is possible, but from the same technical standpoint, a decline should be expected in the medium term. The current situation is not entirely clear, and the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop this week is unlikely to assist traders.       There were some trading signals on the 5-minute chart, although they weren't great. The first sell signal was formed overnight, but by the opening of the European session, the pair was at the point of formation. Therefore, a sell trade could confidently be opened.   Later, the price dropped to the level of 1.2386 and bounced off it. It was appropriate to close the shorts (with a profit of about 25 pips) and open long positions. The buy signal turned out to be false, as did the subsequent sell signal. These two signals "ate up" all the profit from the first trade and also forced us to remove the level of 1.2386 and replace it with 1.2372. It was not advisable to trade the last signal around 1.2372 as the first two proved to be false.   Trading tips on Tuesday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair has ended its downtrend and started a new uptrend in the short-term. We believe that the pound has not fallen enough to form a new strong uptrend, but the market may have a different opinion. There are a couple of important data scheduled for release this week, so we recommend analyzing higher charts to understand the potential direction of the price.   The key levels on the 5M chart are .2171-1.2179, 1.2245, 1.2307, 1.2372, 1.2445, 1.2507-1.2520, 1.2597-1.2616, 1.2659, 1.2697. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. The UK will release its Construction PMI on Tuesday, which could potentially provoke a market reaction. However, the chances of that are still low. The economic calendar is empty in the US.   Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

What events may affect market sentiment on June 7? Analysis of fundamental data for beginners. On Wednesday, there will be very few macroeconomic reports. We can mention the US balance of trade report, but I can't even remember the last time this report provoked any market reaction. Therefore, we should probably expect the market to go into a "half-holiday" state again today. Volatility could range from 50 to 70 pips for both instruments, which makes it challenging to trade.   But there's nothing we can do if there are no news and reports, the market has no reason to be active. Analysis of fundamental events: Among the fundamental events, the only notable one is the speech by European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos. As we approach the June ECB meeting, his comments may help traders understand the central bank's plans for this month. However, traders are already aware of these things.   The probability of a new quarter point rate hike is 100%, and there are simply no other options. Therefore, even if de Guindos hints at further tightening, it will not support the euro or create pressure on it. It would be different if de Guindos outlines the future prospects for the ECB rate, as there has been recent information suggesting that the June hike may be the last in the tightening cycle. But for now, it's only rumors.     General conclusions: On Wednesday, there will be hardly any significant events, so we expect low volatility and weak intraday movements. Theoretically, de Guindos' speech could turn out to be interesting, but in reality, we have witnessed a large number of speeches by ECB committee members in the last two weeks. It is unlikely that de Guindos will reveal anything fundamentally new today.     Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair.   Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

Analyzing Friday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart     On Friday, the GBP/USD pair traded flat with a slight bearish bias. The new, upcoming, ascending trend line has not been broken. At the moment, the price has only tested it. However, since the market has entered a flat phase, breaking this trend line will not be a strong signal for a trend reversal.   Of course, the British currency cannot continue to rise indefinitely, especially considering the lack of reasons and grounds for such a move. A correction should start sooner or later, but it is extremely difficult to predict when it will start because the market is currently hardly reacting to fundamental and macroeconomic factors, as confirmed by the entire week.   There was only one report on Friday, and it was the consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in the US. This indicator unexpectedly showed a much stronger increase than forecasted and... triggered a 20-25 point rise in the dollar. As before, all reports in favor of the dollar were ignored, while any reason to buy the British pound was used to its fullest extent, resulting in a 200% increase.   GBP/USD on 5M chart A huge number of signals materialized on the 5M chart, while the movement was sideways and volatility was only 55 pips, which is very low for the pound. Therefore, almost any level that the price encountered automatically became a source of false signals. Thus, beginners could attempt to execute one or two signals during the European trading session. It is highly likely that the first one resulted in a small loss, while the second one was closed at breakeven when the stop loss was triggered. It was quite challenging to expect other results in a flat market. Trading tips on Monday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to show strong growth despite the Friday flat. Even if the price consolidates below the trend line, it does not mean that a downtrend is brewing, as traders remain bullish, and crossing the trend line during a flat phase is not a strong signal. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2779-1.2801, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2981-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3107, 1.3145, 1.3210, 1.3241, 1.3272. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven.   On Monday, there are no important events lined up in the UK or the US, but it is extremely difficult to predict the price movement in conditions of extreme overbought levels and without any news. It could be a correction, a continuation of the rise, or a flat market.     Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

Analyzing Monday's trades: EUR/USD on 30M chart   On Monday, EUR/USD corrected against Friday's correction. As a reminder, on Friday, the pair started an upward movement after breaking the descending trendline three times. Since the upward movement on that day was strong and sharp, a correction was expected, which we saw on the "quiet" Monday.   From a technical standpoint, the pair has been moving in an ideal manner in the last couple of days. The main question now is whether a new short-term uptrend will begin. Take note that in the medium-term perspective, the euro does not have any reason to rise. The short-term uptrend may simply be a correction on higher time frames. Therefore, the euro could still rise. But in the next couple of months, we believe that it should continue its downward movement.   EUR/USD on 5M chart   On Monday, there were two trading signals on the 5-minute chart and volatility was 54 pips, which is very low. It was quite inconvenient to trade due to such low volatility, but we were lucky to get such trading signals, as they turned out to be false only based on the fact that the pair did not reach the nearest target level. However, with such low volatility, it did not make sense to expect it to reach the target level anyway. The price bounced twice from the area of 1.0971-1.0977. In the first case, it moved up by 12 pips, so the trade should not have been closed at the time when the second signal was being formed. In the second case, the pair moved up by 20-25 pips. Beginners could have made such a profit by closing the trade manually closer to the evening.   Trading tips on Tuesday: On the 30M chart, the pair started to correct, but we still expect it to fall since it is significantly overbought in the long term and also lacks significant reasons to enter a new rally. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0835, 1.0871, 1.0901-1.0904, 1.0971-1.0977, 1.1038, 1.1091, 1.1132-1.1145, 1.1184, 1.1241, 1.1279-1.1292. A stop loss can be set at a breakeven point as soon as the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. On Tuesday, Germany will release the second estimate of its inflation report for July. In addition to that, Federal Reserve officials will speak. All of these events are considered secondary of importance.   Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.