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Yesterday, the single currency showed a rather impressive decline, falling below parity again. And it started during the European trading session, under the influence of the actual European macroeconomic statistics. In particular, the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector turned out to be worse than the preliminary estimate, and fell from 49.8 points to 49.6 points. While the preliminary estimate showed a decrease to 49.7 points. In addition, the data on unemployment also turned out to be not the best, although formally, it fell from 6.7% to 6.6%. But in fact, it remained unchanged, as the previous data were revised upwards. Unemployment rate (Europe): But in the United States, the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector turned out to be better than the preliminary estimate, which showed a decrease from 52.2 points to 51.3 points. In fact, it dropped to 51.5 points. However, the strengthening of the dollar is still somewhat surprising, as the data on applications for unemployment benefits do not inspire optimism. Of course, the number of initial requests decreased by 5,000. But the number of repeated requests increased by 26,000. And this is quite a lot. Number of retries for unemployment benefits (United States): It is possible that the dollar's growth is purely speculative in anticipation of today's release of the report of the United States Department of Labor. And while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged, data on employment change clearly indicate a high potential for its growth. In addition, 310,000 new jobs should be created outside of agriculture, against 528,000 in the previous month. Such a strong decline in the rate of job creation clearly hints that the US labor market is losing momentum, and the situation is starting to worsen, which will be the reason for a sharp weakening of the dollar. Number of new non-agricultural jobs (United States): The EURUSD currency pair showed local speculative interest in short positions yesterday. As a result, the quote fell below the parity level, having almost reached the lower boundary of the sideways range of 0.9900/1.0050. The technical instrument RSI H4 crossed the middle line 50 from top to bottom during the downward momentum. As a result, the indicator settled in the lower area of 30/50, which indicates the downward mood of market participants. It should be noted that the signals from RSI H4 are of a variable nature due to the fact that the quote, as before, is moving within the sideways formation. MA moving lines on Alligator H4 have many intersections, which corresponds to the flat stage. Alligator D1 is directed to the downside, there is no intersection between the MA lines. This signal from the indicator corresponds to the direction of the main trend. In this case, the strengthening of the downward signal will occur at the moment when the MA (D1) lines are kept below the parity level. Expectations and prospects The convergence of the price with the lower limit of the flat 0.9900 led to an increase in the volume of long positions, as a result, a rebound appeared on the market. Despite the variable speculative interest, the quote is still in the sideways on the basis of a downward trend. Thus, the work can be built on the basis of two tactics: Rebound or breakdown relative to one or another control border. Concretize the above The bounce tactic is seen by traders as a temporary strategy. The breakout tactic is considered the main strategy because it can indicate the subsequent price move. Complex indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods have a variable signal due to the current flat. At this time, the indicators indicate a long position due to the price rebound from the lower border of the flat. Indicators in the medium term are focused on a downward trend.     Relevance up to 20:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320635

Global inflation is higher, reflecting the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ongoing supply constraints, and strong demand. Many central banks are tightening monetary policy to combat inflation, and the resulting tighter financial conditions are moderating economic growth. Bank of Canada expected to raise interest rate In July, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100 bp. It was the largest single rate increase since August 1998 after a series of hikes that began in March. Previously, the rate had been at 0.25 per cent where it sat since it was slashed to near-zero early in the pandemic.The BoC increased its target for the overnight rate to 2,5%, with the Bank Rate at 2,75% and the deposit rate at 2,5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT). At press conference, Tiff Macklem - Governor explain what prompted your decision. The most important stimulus was that inflation in Canada was higher and more persistent than the Bank expected in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and the fear of further growth as well as the lack of workers and many goods and services. Demand needs to slow down for supply to catch up and the price pressure to ease off. And the most important goal of monetary policy is to restore inflation to 2% and to achieve price stability. Source: www.bankofcanada.ca As shown by data from the Canadian bank, inflation slightly decreased. As inflation fell, the unemployment rate also fell in 22Q2. What could be positive news for the Canadian economy. According to the Bank's July speculation, inflation will fall to around 3% by the end of 2023 and will return to the 2% target by the end of 2024. Therefore, economists predict that there will be another rate hike in September. Some of Canada's major banks are forecasting the central bank will raise the key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, bringing it to 3.25 per cent. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 7, 2022. Some economists think Wednesday's hike could be the last for a while. The RBA will raise rate by 50 bp? At meeting at 2 August 2022, the Board of RBA decided to increase the cash rate target by 50 basis points to 1.85 %. In the simplest terms, the RBA cash rate is Australia’s official interest rate. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 50 basis points to 1.75 %. The Board places a high priority on the return of inflation to the 2–3% range over time, while keeping the economy on an even keel. The path to achieve this balance is a narrow one and clouded in uncertainty, not least because of global developments. Inflation in Australia is the highest it has been since the early 1990s. In headline terms, inflation was 6.1 % over the year to the June quarter; in underlying terms it was 4.9 %. Global factors explain much of the increase in inflation, but domestic factors are also playing a role. There are widespread upward pressures on prices from strong demand, a tight labour market and capacity constraints in some sectors of the economy. The Bank's central forecast is for CPI inflation to be around 7,75% over 2022, a little above 4 % over 2023 and around 3 % over 2024. Australia Inflation is expected to peak later this year and then decline back towards the 2–3 % range. The expected moderation in inflation reflects the ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, the stabilisation of commodity prices and the impact of rising interest rates. Forecasts that the RBA will raise the monetary rate by 50 basis points at its meeting on September 6, raising rates to 2.35%. Not only the economic situation shows this, but also the analysis of previous decisions. The interest rate hypotheses will be confirmed or disproved at the Tuesday meeting. Source: www.bankofcanada.ca, www.rba.gov.au

The ECB's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt is to be held on Thursday 8 September. What can we expect? The Governing Council normally meets twice a month at the premises of the ECB in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. The Governing Council assesses economic and monetary developments and takes monetary policy decisions every six weeks and bases its monetary policy decisions, including the evaluation of the proportionality of its decisions and potential side effects, on an integrated assessment of all relevant factors. This assessment builds on two interdependent analyses: the economic analysis and the monetary and financial analysis. At Thursday's meeting, a decision will be made whether interest rates will be raised again. When prices in European economy are rising too fast and when inflation is too high – increasing interest rates mey help bring inflation back down. The Governing Council may discuss another important step on the path to normalizing interest rates that was signaled at the previous meeting. This decision is based on the Governing Council's updated inflation risk assessment. Does economy data influence on hiking intrest rates? The European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time since 2011 in July '22 to tackle eurozone inflation that increased to 8.6% ta those oeriod. In a surprise move, the ECB pushed its base rate up by 0.5 percentage points, after economists had expected a smaller 0.25 point rise. The economy on the old continent is slowing down. This is due to high inflation, greater uncertainty and supply problems. These factors significantly obscure the prospects of our economy for this year and the following years. German Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.1, down from 49.3 in July. It was a similar story for the eurozone Manufacturing PMI, which dropped from 49.8 to 49.6. After the publication of data from Germany the euro has weakened. The euro's fall to parity against the dollar for the first time in two decades also poses problems for the ECB – letting the currency fall exacerbates inflation, but the opposite approach could hit growth. Also, as of July 2022, the inflation rate in the European Union was 9.8 %. The current rate of inflation in the EU is higher than at any other time. High inflation has become the dominant concern of citizens in many countries. After this data, there is a high probability of an increase from 50bp to 75bp. Future interest rate decision will largely depend on the latest data. The initiative is aimed at helping to achieve the inflation target of 2% in the medium term. ECB’s Monteary Policy The pandemic and the war in Ukraine have fostered inflationary forces. So central banks have had to shift their focus from tackling low inflation to combating high inflation. The ECB’s monetary policy response to the higher inflation outlook can clearly be rationalised based on the new strategy – in particular its symmetric inflation target. The new ECB strategy has contributed to a more solid anchoring of inflation expectations at 2%. Monetary policy decisions taken by the ECB’s Governing Council since July 2021 have been firmly grounded in the strategy. In a rapidly changing world, the ECB’s monetary policy strategy will likely need to be reviewed and adapted more regularly. Source: Eurostat.com, Investing.com, ecb.europa.eu

Summary:  Good news to the US economy spells bad news to the bond markets and equities. Crude oil prices stumble on restricted movements in the city of Guiyang in China, while the Newcastle Coal price moves to its own beat roaring to a brand new record high. With this in light, Australian GDP data will be a focus today with Australian coal exports hitting $100 billion. USDJPY at record highs again, so what's next for that FX pair, plus why to watch the AUDUSD. Plus what to expect from the Bank of Canada today, and NIO earnings. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  Good news to the economy is bad news to the bond markets and the stock market.  The solid ISM Services data removed the little remaining hope of a soft landing from the mind of bond traders and pushed up yields and the higher bond yield in turn dragged down the stock markets.  After the end of the reporting season and companies headed for the blackout period, stock traders spent their days mulling over what the Fed is going to do next and turned deeper into the belief that the summer rally might end up being a bear market rally and decided to trim long positions amid low liquidity and lack of retail participation. The unfolding of an energy crisis across the pond in Europe added to the negative sentiment.    S&P500 was down 0.4% and Nasdaq100 declined 0.7% on Tuesday. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY:xnas) tumbled 18.4% following the news that the company’s CFO committed suicide, the announcement of firing 20% of its workforce and selling 12 million of new shares.  U.S. treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) After the much strong than expected ISM Services prints, treasuries were sold off, 2-year yields +12bps to 3.5%, 10-year yields +16bps to 3.35%; 30-year yields +16bps to 3.50%. The money market curve is pricing in over a 70% chance of a 75bp hike at the September FOMC and a terminal rate of about 3.90%. The long-end of the curve was also pressured by the announcement of 19 investment grade new issues with a total amount over USD35 billion.   Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) A-Shares in the mainland markets noticeably outperformed shares traded in the Hong Kong bourse.  CSI300 surged almost 1% but Hang Seng Index was flat. The escalated natural gas price in Europe cast doubts on the resilience of the European chemical industry to maintain its output level of basic chemicals and encouraged expectations of Chinese basic chemical makers to export more to Europe. The A-share basic chemical space gained over 3%.  Increases in lithium carbonate prices caused a rise in the share prices of lithium miners.  The National Energy Administration released a consultative paper that encourages the development of the national electric grid to enable the taking up of more solar power onto it.  The non-ferrous metal names gained after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued draft guidelines on reaching the stage of intelligent manufacturing for the non-ferrous metal industry by 2025.  Intelligent manufacturing is solve optimization problems in production by utilizing real-time data analysis, artificial intelligence, and machine learning.   Shares of Chinese property developers listed in Hong Kong surged after Guangzhou R&F (02777:xhkg) sold a hotel for RMB550 million and CIFI (00884:xhkg) sold a Hong Kong site.  These asset disposals stirred up optimism about improving the balance sheet and liquidity of Chinese developers, Country Garden (02007:xhkg) +9.3%, Longfor (00960:xhkg)+5.8%, and China Resources Land (01109)+4.5%. Electric vehicle manufacturers rebounded from 1% to 3%, bringing the industry’s week-long meltdown in share prices to a halt.Newcastle Coal prices hit new record highsAs Europe is facing an energy crisis this winter, it will need to increase energy imports. So, in anticipation of such a scenario, this might explain why the Australian coal price trades at a record, along with the futures price. We already know the UK importing is Australian LNG, so consider Australian coal could be heading to Europe more broadly next. Australian energy supply is already likely to run low in 2023, which also supports coal prices running higher. But for coal companies, their earnings and free cash flow will likely increase. Coal companies have been the best performers in global equities this year, after delivering the most earnings growth, with some companies like Whitehaven Coal (WHC) seeing 1,500% earnings growth YoY. Coal loaded at Australia’s Newcastle port hit $436.71, an all-time high. And triple the price this time last year. Coal futures prices are $463, implying the coal price will move up.USDJPY at record highs againA run higher in US yields, with 30-year yields touching 3.5%, underpinned a further move lower in the Japanese yen. USDJPY inched higher to 143.55 this morning in Asia, printing a fresh 24-year high. The market is challenging the Bank of Japan’s yield-cap policy yet again, and with no resistance in sight, the move and volatility is set to rise further. While the FX weakness alone may not be enough for the BOJ to pivot in order to maintain its credibility, higher oil prices and weakness in yen is spelling immense trouble on the inflation story as well. That could feed some pressure from the government on the BOJ policy.    The offshore yuan weakened to 6.98 At the back of the spreading of pandemic lockdowns and the strong U.S. dollar, USDCNH rose to 6.9800 and is set to challenge the 7 handle. USDCNY fixing will be on watch today, as a sharp depreciation of the currency is unlikely to be accepted just ahead of the 20th party congress that starts on October 16.  Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Demand concerns seemed to take over the supply issues yet again with China’s lockdowns extending further. The city of Guiyang joined Chengdu in restricting movement by the public amid renewed outbreaks of COVID-19. WTI futures slumped below $87/barrel while Brent dropped below $93. Global demand slowdown concerns also picked up after rate hikes this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced a 50bps rate hike on Tuesday, with Bank of Canada expected to go today and European Central Bank on the cards for tomorrow. A fresh surge in dollar also weighed on commodity prices.    What to consider? US ISM services in further expansion While the S&P services index continued to signal weakness with a 43.7 revised print for August, the ISM services on the other hand expanded further to 56.9 from 56.7 in July and came in above expectations. Business activity accelerated to 60.9 from 59.9, while the prices paid component remained elevated at 71.5, in contrast to the decline we saw to 52.5 for the manufacturing sector. New orders rose to 61.8 from 59.9 and employment rose into expansionary territory at 50.2 from 49.1.  China’s exports in August are expected to have slowed China’s exports in August would probably come in weaker (Bloomberg consensus: 13% YoY vs 18.0% YoY in July) as container throughput data suggested. The resurgence of pandemic control restrictions, production disruptions due to power rationing, and a high base last year could have contributed to the deceleration.  Economists are expecting China’s imports in August to slow (Bloomberg consensus: 1.1% vs 2.3% in July). South Korea’s August export data released last week showed a 5.4% YoY decline in total exports and a 3.4% YoY decline in chip exports to China.  Slower commodity inflation could have depressed China’s import growth as well in August. Australian economic growth data is a big focus today down under. If weaker than expected AUD could weaken Australian economic growth is expected to show 1% growth q/q in the second quarter and 3.5% y/y. GDP will likely get a boost from record commodity exports (which will likely account for 1% of GPD YoY), record retail sales, and a pickup in overseas travel. However, construction costs and hampered residential construction activity could weigh on the headline GDP figure. AUDUSD is on watch with the currency pair trading at its lowest level since June 2020. If the figures today are better than expected, we could see a knee-jerk short-term rally up. However, over the medium to longer term, the fundamentals support the USD moving up and the AUD potentially continuing to lose out with the favored FX currency, the USD gaining momentum and strength amid the energy crisis and Fed hawkishness. The technical indicators suggest the AUDUSD could also retest the March 2020 low of 0.61380, which is the currency pairs lowest level in 19 years. Australia’s Reserve Bank rose rates 0.5% to 2.35%, but it will do little to slow inflation The RBA hiked rates by 0.5% as expected yesterday, in a bid to stave off inflation, taking Australia’s official cash rate to 2.35%. The only thing that the RBA has slowed after hiking rates 1.75% so far since May is the property market. Property prices have seen their biggest drop since the 80’s and construction made its biggest decline since 2016. This is a credit concern as Australia has one of the highest debt levels in the world (debt to GPD is 126%). If the RBA keeps rising rates as they suggest, debt-to-income levels could hit GFC highs. The RBA’s rate hikes have done nothing to slow inflation, and coal prices, which are the biggest contribution to Australian CPI. What you need to consider, is how can the RBA's hikes fix the commodities supply/demand imbalance. We also think coal momentum is likely to rise in anticipation of demand picking up with peak energy season around the world, and Europe is likely to tap on Australia's shoulder for energy.   Australia’s trade surplus surged up for the 13th month, propelled by coal exports  Australia’s trade surplus rocked up to A$18.3bn in the June quarter, bolstering Australia’s balance on goods and services to A$43.1bn, which is the highest level on record. This was fueled by commodity exports and Australia’s trade balance (exports less imports) rising to a record after commodity exports hit a record high, with coal exports exceeding A$100bn annually for the first time. Bank of Canada to hike rates today After a July rate hike of 100bps, Bank of Canada meets again today. The consensus is calling for a 75bps rate hike to bring rates to a restrictive territory, given that inflation continues to run well above target and economic demand is holding up well. The pace of tightening is however likely to slow down in October, and so the messaging will be key to watch at today’s meeting.  NIO earnings ahead While the earnings release date for NIO has been moved around multiple times it should be final now so tomorrow one of China’s largest EV-makers will report Q2 earnings. Investors will focus on the Q3 outlook for revenue growth and margins in order to gauge when NIO can break even on its operations. California’s blackout threat worsens, and the state keeps nuclear power on standby  Amid a massive heatwave and wildfires sweeping the state, power use in California has hit an all-time high and officials have again warned residents to prepare for rolling blackouts. We first wrote about this on Monday but now the state’s grid operator issued another round of warnings, calling on consumers to limit energy demand while the state issued a level-2 energy emergency alert. Officials expect to ratchet the emergency warning up to level 3, which would mean blackouts are imminent. The prospect of outages underscores how grids are becoming vulnerable amid extreme weather as they transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – September 6, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  Markets are jumpy, with US equities trading back and forth over the key supports at the former lows of the cycle in the major indices. The action settled near those important support levels and then futures traded softer overnight in an Asian session that saw the downward spiral in the Japanese yen accelerating despite stern words from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. It seems only a change of course from the Bank of Japan has the chance of slowing the yen’s slide.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities continued to slide lower yesterday as the US 10-year yield advanced to close at 3.35% getting closer to the recent high of 3.5%. The culprit was the much stronger than expected ISM Services yesterday pushed the Fed Funds forward curve lower indicating higher policy rates for longer. S&P 500 futures fell 0.9% and is trading lower again this morning in early European trading hours sitting around the 3,897 level. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong stocks notably underperformed their mainland counterparts for the second straight session. Hang Seng Index lost 1.7% and Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.4% while CSI300 was flat. Heavyweight financial names HSBC (00005:xhkg) and AIA Group (01299:xhkg) tumbled nearly 3%. China internet names traded in the Hong Kong bourse also contributed to leading the indices lower, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) and Tencent (00700:xhkg) dropped about 2%, and Bilibili (09626:xhkg) fell by almost 6%. The Covid19-related lockdowns, a weakening yuan, the disappointing August trade data from China, and the rise in US interest rates hurt the market sentiment. Strong USD on the rampage once again While the focus is chiefly on the cratering Japanese yen (see more below), the US dollar is broadly stronger again and thriving on higher US treasury yields after a strong US August ISM Services data point yesterday, as well as on weaker risk sentiment. EURUSD found more separation from parity and traded to new lows briefly yesterday ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow, while AUDUSD, for example, trades this morning below its lowest daily close for the cycle, if not below the intraday low of 0.6682 from July. The USDCNH bears watching as well, as 7.00 has now rolled into view. JPY downward spiral intensifies as global yields jump The USDJPY spike accelerated again yesterday in the wake of strong US data, as Market the world wonders how long Japan can allow the pressure from rising yield differentials globally to pile into the country’s currency, given the Bank of Japan’s insistence on capping yields out to 10 years under its yield-curve-control policy.  The situation has created a pressure cooker of a situation on the yen and tremendous volatility, which could get worse still if US 10-year treasury yields continue back higher toward the 3.50% peak from June. The next important economic data point for the US is Monday’s August CPI – and the next chart focus in USDJPY is 147.66 the 24-year high of 1998. Stern verbal warnings from Ministry of Finance officials overnight hardly even registered on the market. The BoJ must change policy for JPY to find its lows. Crude oil (CLV2 & LCOX2) Crude oil hits lowest since January as demand concerns have once again overtaken worries about supply with China lockdowns and restrictions on movements now impacting 46 cities. In addition, a surging dollar, weaker equity markets and central banks in hiking mode continue to negatively impact the general level of risk appetite. In Europe the energy crisis has raised concerns about a ‘Lehman’ moment with utilities buckling under the weight of growing margin calls. Instead of supporting prices, the token 100k b/d OPEC+ production cut announced on Monday has had the opposite effect with the market concluding the group worries about demand going forward. WTI futures slumped below $86/barrel while Brent dropped below $92. Focus on EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook for September and API’s weekly inventory data. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) US Treasury yields rose sharply in the wake of the strong US ISM Services survey for August, which suggests that the US’ dominant services sector remains in strong expansion, while price pressures for the month eased. The 10-year yield benchmark traded near 3.33% this morning, above all but the highest two daily closes back in a mid-June spike to 3.50%. Above current levels, US treasury yields are likely to dominate focus across markets, likely driving US dollar and risk sentiment direction. What is going on? Signs of a flagging world economy send commodities lower One week into September, the Bloomberg Commodity Index trades down more than 4% with losses seen across all sectors led by energy and industrial metals. The prospect of aggressive Federal Reserved Monetary tightening has lifted the dollar to a record against a broad basket of currencies while the yield on ten-year US government bonds has climbed to 3.34%, just below the 3.5% June peak. In addition to rising interest rates, soon also from the European Central Bank, the market is also dealing with an energy crisis in Europe and lockdowns in China hurting growth and demand in both areas. With the stock market suffering declines and geopolitical tensions being elevated, some safe-haven demand has helped cushion precious metals, the best performing sector so far this month. Xi Jinping invokes “whole nation system” With the recent US restrictions on Nvidia selling its most advanced AI chips to Chinese customers Xi Jinping invoked the so-called whole nation system to coordinate and allocate resources for China to become fully independent from the technologies that the US is trying to curb going to China. This speech bolsters our view that the world is moving towards a bipolar world with more fragmented supply chains and economies. US ISM services in further expansion While the S&P Global Services PMI survey continued to signal weakness with a 43.7 revised print for August, the BLM’s historically more close watched ISM Services survey on the other hand expanded further to 56.9 from 56.7 in July, slightly above expectations. Business activity accelerated to 60.9 from 59.9, while the prices paid component remained elevated at 71.5, in contrast to the decline we saw to 52.5 for the manufacturing sector. New orders rose to 61.8 from 59.9 and employment rose into expansionary territory at 50.2 from 49.1. Norway says it is open to discussion of energy price caps in Europe Norway is the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe and the country’s prime minister Jonas Støre said the country is open to discussing shorter- and longer-term gas delivery arrangements that cap prices, saying that the discussions would have to occur with the country’s oil and gas producers, chiefly Equinor, but that it is important to not jeopardize production levels. France’s nuclear energy production is in free fall More than half of the fifty-six nuclear reactors are down due to corrosion issues on reactors which could take years to solve. Nuclear production is now at its lowest point, around 23,000 MWh per day on average versus 40,000 MWh in the same period last year. So far, this has not created a power emergency as electricity demand is usually not elevated during the summer (around 45 GWh per day). But it might become an issue when higher winter consumption will push electricity demand around 80-90 GWh on average. This could cause an electricity shortage at the worst time ever (see Chart of the Week : The energy crisis is hitting France, 29 August 2022). China’s exports in August slowed more than expected In U.S. dollar terms, China’s exports in August come in weaker at +7.1% y/y (Bloomberg consensus: +13% y/y; July: +18.0% y/y). The resurgence of pandemic control restrictions, production disruptions due to power rationing, weaker demand from U.S. consumers, and a high base last year contributed to the deceleration. 46 cities in China are implementing various degrees of lockdowns or restrictions on mobility, affecting nearly 300 million people and close to 25% of the country’s GDP. Imports also were slower than expected, coming in at +0.3% y/y (Bloomberg consensus +1.1% y/y; July: +2.3%). Australia assures it will remain a reliable LNG supplier Australia’s Minister for resources has again been called on to ‘pull the trigger’ and limit gas exports given the projections show Australia will have an energy shortage next year. The Minster said although it has the matter under control, it cannot guarantee it won’t be limiting exports. Japan imported AUD 17bn of the fossil fuel from Australia last year. As such Japan says it’s watching the situation closely. What are we watching next? Bank of Canada to hike rates today After a July rate hike of 100bps, Bank of Canada meets again today. The consensus is calling for a 75bps rate hike to bring rates to a restrictive territory, given that inflation continues to run well above target and economic demand is holding up well. The pace of tightening is however likely to slow down in October, and so the messaging will be key to watch at today’s meeting. Canada’s Ivey PMI for August is also out today after dipping sharply in July to just below 50. ECB meeting on Thursday A 75-bp hike that takes the policy rate to 0.75% is the favoured scenario, although not fully priced. To surprise the market and bolster its claim that it is serious about getting ahead of inflation, the ECB will have to move 100 basis points. Guidance will also be important, as the ECB is expected to take the rate to at least 1.5% through the December meeting (two more meetings after the meeting tomorrow). Several key points will be discussed at the EU emergency energy meeting on 9 September According to Reuters, the EU energy ministers will try to find an agreement on a gas price caps (yesterday, European gas jumped 31 % as Russia kept Nord Stream link shut) and on providing companies facing high margin calls emergency liquidity support (several utilities are already on the edge of bankruptcy in Germany and in Austria, for instance). The ministers will also focus on reforming more deeply the European electricity market. Two main options are on the table: the ‘Iberian exception’ and the Greek non-paper (see EU Emergency Energy Meeting : A Never Ending Story, 31 August 2022). Earnings to watch Today’s key earnings release is NIO which one of the most prolific EV-makers in China. Revenue growth is expected to slow down to 16% y/y in Q2 as Covid restrictions slowed down consumer markets in Q2. Expectations are looking for revenue growth to accelerate to 66% y/y and a narrower EBITDA loss of CNY 1.7bn. Today: People’s Insurance Co Group, Exor, Copart, NIO Thursday: Sun Hung Kai Properties, Sekisui House, Zscaler, DocuSign Friday: Dollar Stores, Kroger Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – UK Bank of England Governor Bailey and others testify before Parliament Poland Rate Announcement 1230 – US Jul. Trade Balance 1230 – Canada Jul. International Merchandise Trade 1300 – US Fed’s Barkin to speak 1400 – Bank of Canada Rate Decision 1400 – Canada Aug. Ivey PMI 1400 – US Fed’s Mester (Voter) to speak 1600 – EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook 1640 – US Fed Vice Chair Brainard to speak 1800 – US Fed Beige Book 1800 – US Fed’s Barr (Voter) to speak on Financial System Fairness & Safety 2030 – API's (delayed) Weekly Report on US Oil Inventories 2301 – UK Aug. RICS House Price Balance 0130 – Australia Jul. Trade Balance 0305 – Australia RBA Governor Lowe to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher       Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – September 7, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  Today we ponder whether yesterday's bounce in sentiment after technical support once again survived offers room for at least tactical optimism. Certainly, investor sentiment in the US is in the dumps, nearly matching record low levels according to at least one survey. Elsewhere, we breakdown the impact of EU proposals to cap power prices, particularly on alternative energy equities, the latest on crude oil and Putin boosting wheat prices with threats to revisit Ukraine export deal. In FX, the focus is on the JPY as officialdom there is getting religion on the need to do something soon and on the EUR as the ECB is likely set to hike 75 basis points today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com. Share       Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-sep-8-2022-08092022

Summary:  The USD weakened sharply overnight, led by a tumbling USDJPY on comments from Bank of Japan governor Kuroda after he met with Prime Minister Kishida. Risk sentiment was buoyant yesterday and overnight on the weaker US dollar and after the ECB hiked by 75 basis points as most expected, the most in the central bank’s history. EURUSD has backed up well above parity again ahead of an EU Summit that will attempt to outline a common approach to soaring power/gas prices amidst limited supplies ahead of winter.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities continued to rally yesterday with S&P 500 futures pushing above the 4,000 level to close at 4,005, and even more impressively momentum is extending this morning in early European trading hours. The rally still seems to be mostly technically driven, but there was some support for US equities in yesterday’s initial jobless claims data showing little negative pressures in the US labour market. After the US market close, DocuSign shares rose 17% as the technology company delivered a strong result and raised its outlook breathing some fresh optimism into the technology sector. The next big event for US equities is the US August CPI report on Tuesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index soared 2.6% today, snapping a six-day losing streak, following August inflation data in China surprised on the downside and raised hope for more monetary easing to come from the Chinese policymakers. Mega-cap internet stocks strongly, Meituan (03690:xhkg) +5.5%, Netease (0999:xhkg) +4.8%, Baidu (09888:xhkg)+3.6%, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) +3.1%, Tencent (00700:xhkg) +1.7%. One notable underperformance in the internet space was Bilibli (09626:xhkg/BILI:xnas) which plunged nearly 17% after reporting a larger than expected loss in 2Q2022 on the deterioration of gross and operating margins. Ahead of the mid-autumn festival, catering stocks gains, Jiumaojiu (09922:xhkg) +6.7%, Haidilao (06862:xhkg) +2.6%. Chinese property names rallied, led by Country Garden (02007:xhkg) which jumped 14%. CSI 300 climbed 1.3%, led by property names, financials and dental services.  USD broadly weaker after ECB meeting and USDJPY correction overnight Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda commented on the undesirability of sharp JPY moves in comments overnight after meeting with PM Kishida. This took USDJPY back below 143.00 two days after it nearly touched 145 in its latest surge higher. The threat of intervention may not hold the JPY higher for long if global yields continue higher again. Elsewhere, the USD was sharply lower despite a solid bounce-back in US treasury yields and EURUSD traded well north of parity again after an initially choppy reception of the expected 75-basis point hike from the ECB and President Lagarde’s press conference. The action took EURUSD back to the cusp of important resistance in the 1.0100 area, which has been the resistance of note for more some three weeks. The move was supported by surging European short yields, although the energy/power situation will remain the focus for the euro. Crude oil (CLV2 & LCOX2) The oil price weakness seen this week following the break below $91.5 and $85 in Brent and WTI may still end up being a temporary development with the dollar weakness seen overnight, especially against the yen and euro, adding a bid back into the market. Dr. Copper meanwhile is recovering as demand from China show signs of improving. Potentially a signal to the energy market of not getting too carried away by a temporary lockdown related slowdown in Chinese demand. However, with US implied gasoline demand falling below 2020 levels last week, a potential recovery above the mentioned level is likely to be muted. Focus on Putin and his threat to cut supply to nations backing the US-led price cap on crude sales and OPEC+ which may intervene should price weakness persist. Copper (COPPERUSDEC22) Copper trades higher with the futures market signaling increased tightness, primarily due to a pickup in Chinese demand and imports, which despite lockdowns has seen the infrastructure push ramping up. In addition, a lower-than-expected August CPI and PPI may give the PBoC more room to ease conditions. Exchange monitored inventory levels has dropped to an 8-month low at a time where mining companies struggle to meet their production targets with top producer Chile seeing its exports slump to a 19-month low due to water restrictions and lower ore quality. Speculators have increased short positions in recent weeks as a hedge against recession and China weakness, and they are now increasingly exposed. Support at $3.54 and for a real upside and trend reversal to occur the price needs to break above $3.78/lb. Bitcoin This morning Bitcoin rose the most in more than a month, surpassing the psychological $20k level and now trading at around $20.5k. This is despite a report published by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy yesterday, stating that cryptocurrencies make a significant contribution to energy usage and greenhouse gas emissions in the US, and that they recommend monitoring and potential regulation. It could have a significant impact on cryptocurrencies using the proof-of-work consensus mechanism such as Bitcoin. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) US Treasury yields bounced back toward the top of the range after the previous day’s decline, keeping the attention on the cycle highs for the 10-year yield near 3.50%. The treasury sell-off was sparked around the time of Fed Chair Powell firm comments on fighting inflation, which sent 2-year treasury yields some 8 basis points higher. The latest weekly jobless claims figures was out around the same time and showed the lowest level of claims since late May. What is going on? The ECB hiked interest rates by 75 basis points This was a unanimous decision of the ECB governing council. This is a major signal sent to the market. The move was aimed to catch up with the neutral rate (though the ECB acknowledges they don’t know where the neutral rate is). The ECB also revised upward its inflation forecasts sharply (from 6.8 % to 8.1 % this year). Growth forecasts were also revised. But the ECB still doesn't expect a recession in the eurozone (GDP growth expected at 0.9 % versus prior 2.1 % this year). During the press conference, ECB president Christine Lagarde opened the door to further interest hikes. This is no surprise. She committed to keep hiking over 2, 3 or 4 meetings (including today’s). This implies further hikes until October, December or February, followed by a pause. Forward guidance is not dead, finally. Expect a 50 basis point hike in October, in our view. The German 2-year Schatz yield rose over 20 basis points to yesterday to close at new cycle high of 1.33%. The United Kingdom announces a massive anti­-inflation plan Yesterday, the new prime minister Liz Truss announced a major plan to fight the high cost of living related to energy prices. There are five major measures: 1) capping household bills at £2500 per month. 2) a new £40bn liquidity scheme with the Bank of England for energy firms who need it. 3) no further windfall tax (a tax levied on an unforeseen or unexpectedly large profit). 4) speeding up the deployment of clean energy but at the same time granting more oil and gas licenses for North Sea. and 5) commitment to net zero 2050. If this is successful, it means that the peak in UK inflation will certainly be lower (by 4-5 %). So far, the government believes that the peak could be between 13 and 18 %. This is a broad range. But it shows the level of uncertainty about the short-term economic outlook. Finally, Truss refused to evaluate the total cost of the new plan. Several experts believe it could be close to £150bn, over 6% of UK GDP. DocuSign shares up 17% in extended trading Q2 revenue was much better than expected but confirmed its fiscal year outlook on revenue which was better than the underlying consensus which was clearly below analyst estimates. The company sounded optimistic on the billing outlook, which is the key indicator for future growth, and as a result traders pushed shares 17% higher in extended trading. Apple warned by US government against using Chinese chips Congressional Republicans including Senator Marco Rubio of the Senate intelligence committee and Michael McCaul of the House foreign affairs committee expressed alarm at reports that Apple cited Yangtze Memory Technologies as one of its suppliers of flash memory chips used for phone storage.  “Apple is playing with fire”, said Senator Rubio, threatening scrutiny of the company. Apple said it would not sell iPhones using the chips outside China. What are we watching next? EU Summit today on emergency intervention in power markets and possibly to cap imported Russian gas prices The EU may be able to cap electricity prices, but this could mean a shortage of output relative to demand, i.e., forcing rationing over the winter period when demand surges. Russian leader Putin has called any plan to cap prices “another stupidity”. Swedish election this weekend Swedes go to the polls on Sunday, with the right populist Sweden Democrats expected to become the second-largest political party. In the past, the right-leaning main parties have been unwilling to consider alliances with the Sweden Democrats, as their positions were seen as too extreme, but this has made for very fragile left-coalitions in recent years because of the lack of a sufficient plurality in Parliament. Earnings to watch Today’s key earnings release is Kroger which is a large US supermarket chain with a strong competitive position in the current inflationary environment. Analysts are expecting revenue growth of 8.6% y/y in FY23 Q2 (ending 31 July) and lower operating margin expected due to rising input costs. Today: Kroger Earnings releases next week: Monday: Oracle Tuesday: DiDi Global Wednesday: Inditex Thursday: Polestar Automotive, Adobe Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0930 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1230 – Canada Aug. Net Change in Employment / Unemployment Rate 1600 – US Fed’s Waller (Voter) to speak 1600 – US Fed’s George (Voter) to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher         Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-sep-9-2022-09092022

With only two meetings left this year, and facing higher-than-expected inflation and a tight jobs market, we expect the Riksbank to hike rates by at least 75 basis-points on Tuesday. We expect a repeat move in November In this article 75bp at a minimum from the Riksbank SEK: Riksbank impact still contained 75bp at a minimum from the Riksbank The 75 basis-point (bp) rate hike from the European Central Bank all but guarantees the same sized move from Sweden’s Riksbank on Tuesday – and if anything it could go even more aggressively. Partly that’s because the Riksbank has only one scheduled meeting left this year after this month, which is one less than most central banks. In that sense, it’s got to make each one count, especially given expectations for further aggressive ECB tightening in the near term.   But more importantly, core inflation has once again exceeded the Riksbank’s forecast. Core inflation came in over a percentage-point higher in August than policymakers had projected back in June. This is coinciding with a jobs market that looks unusually tight. With low unemployment and wage growth at 3%, policymakers are focusing increasingly on the upcoming wage negotiations, which are due to lock in pay growth for the next three years. All the signs currently point to a more generous outcome for workers than the last set of negotiations in 2020. Core inflation has once again exceeded the Riksbank’s forecast   Source: Riksbank, ING   All of that means another 75bp hike in November also looks highly likely. Most members of the committee have been vocal about the need to get inflation lower, and indeed at least one member signalled they were willing to vote for 75bp in June had there been consensus for it. For now, the bank also seems unperturbed by signs of weakness in the Swedish housing market, with Deputy Governor Martin Floden signalling in June that the fall in retail sales and house prices is a “necessary development”. Nevertheless, the housing market is highly sensitive to interest rate hikes and it’s a key risk to the economic outlook, not least given households’ record debt-to-income ratios. The Riksbank’s last monetary policy report accepted there was a risk of an abrupt fall in prices. That – and the fact that we expect less ECB tightening than the market – suggests there is only so far the Riksbank can hike rates this cycle. We wouldn’t be surprised if, after a 75bp rate hike both this month and in November, the central bank stops there. That suggests a peak in the region of 2.25%, something we suspect the Riksbank’s new rate projection due on Tuesday will probably agree with. SEK: Riksbank impact still contained We recently published an update on our SEK view (Sweden: The krona’s recovery is delayed again), where we highlighted how downside risks for the krona were set to remain relatively high, and that a recovery will likely have to wait until next year given the challenges to the European economic outlook (among other reasons). This remains our core view for the krona, regardless of our expectations for a 75bp rate hike by the Riksbank next week. This is because firstly, central bank decisions and policy messages have had a rather limited impact on EUR/SEK of late, and secondly because SEK’s high beta to global risk sentiment and Europe’s economic woes may keep appetite towards the krona limited for now. Incidentally, markets are fully pricing in a 75bp rate hike by the Riksbank and this means that even on the day of the release, there may not be much room for a SEK rally. We expect EUR/SEK to stay around 10.70 in the coming weeks, with risks of retesting the 10.78 July high or even the 10.86 March high if the external environment continues to deteriorate. TagsSwedish krona Sweden   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary:  Markets trade nervously ahead of the FOMC meeting this week, as a minority consider it likely that last week’s hotter-than-expected US August CPI data could see the Fed hiking 100 basis points at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, driving further painful USD strength. Other notable central bank meetings this week include the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, Norges Bank and Bank of England meetings, all on Thursday.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities were lower on Friday but managed to stage a pullback in the later part of the trading session with S&P 500 closing at 3,890. Sentiment remains weak this morning with US equity futures trading lower and Friday’s low in S&P 500 futures at the 3,853 level is the key critical downside level to watch. Financial conditions are still tightening, VIX curve is flattening, and the US 10-year yield is trending higher pointing to weaker equities ahead., The next big level in S&P 500 futures is the 3,800 level. This week the key event risk for US equities is naturally the FOMC meeting which will provide another tightening of policy rates and potentially a hawkish tilt on the guidance due to the latest inflation figures in the US. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index dropped nearly 1%, dragged by technology stocks, with Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) declining 2%, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) falling 3.3%, Tencent (00700:xhkg) down 1%. EV makers underperformed, with NIO (0986), Li Auto (02015:xhkg), and Xpeng (09868:xhkg) declining 4% to 6%. Following the news that the Hong Kong Government is reviewing and considering plans to end the hotel quarantine requirements for inbound travellers, tourism and retail stocks rallied, Cathay Pacific Airways (00293:xhkg) up nearly 2%, travel agent EGL surging 11.5%, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (01929:xhkg) rising 6.6%. CSI 300 was little charged, with coal, and beverage names outperforming. USD traders mull FOMC meeting this Wednesday The US dollar has remained rangebound in most pairs ahead of this Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, but did break higher recently versus GBP, CAD, and NZD. Whether the Fed hikes 100 basis points (a minority looking for this after the hot CPI print for August last week) may prove less important than the Fed’s guidance on its forecasted “terminal rate” in the quarterly refresh of its accompanying “dot plot” forecasts for the Fed rate and as the market reads the tone of the statement and draws conclusions from the latest economic projections. The June PCE inflation forecasts, for example, still see 2023 inflation falling back to 2.7% and 2024 inflation to 2.3%. That latter forecast has only been raised 0.2% from the year-earlier level, suggesting that the Fed still sees the inflationary threat as something that its current path of tightening will make a transitory phenomenon. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold remains below $1680 and may struggle ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision given its potential impact on the dollar and Treasury yield as well as its impact on the terminal rate, currently priced around 4.5% by next March.  Speculators flipped their gold position to a net short in the week to September 13 and it highlights the upside risk should the price manage to break above the twice rejected support-turned-resistance level at $1680. Strong short covering from speculators in silver, supported by copper market tightness, has seen its relative value as seen through the XAUXAG ratio rise to a three-month high. Below $1854, last week's low in gold, the market may target the 50% retracement of the 2018 to 2020 rally at $1618.    Crude oil (CLV2 & LCOX2) Crude oil remains rangebound with Brent continuing to find support ahead of $90 and WTI around $84.50. Prices are being supported by the reopening of Chengdu in Sichuan, boosting the outlook for demand. Overall, however, the potential negative impact on demand from a global economic slowdown will not go away, and the market will be watching central bank decisions from the US to Europe and Asia and their overall impact on the dollar. Production from the OPEC+ alliance fell 3.6 million barrels/day short of its target level in August according to delegates and with Russia’s production at risk of falling by 1.9 million barrels per day once the EU embargo starts in December, the risk to supply remains equally high and price supportive. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields trade near the cycle highs ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, with focus on the 10-year benchmark at 2.50%, the cycle high from June and on guidance from the Fed, as a minority are looking for a 100 basis point hike this week, while the terminal rate for next spring has risen almost to 4.50% recently, up more than 100 basis points from early August. What is going on? Dreadful UK retail sales in August There is no other word to qualify the latest retail sales report in the UK. Retail sales (important to note: UK Retail Sales are reported in volume, not price) contracted by minus 5.4 % year-over-year versus expected minus 4.2 %. Excluding fuel bills, it was out at minus 5 %. Just for the sake of comparison, UK retail sales fell 3.8 % year-over-year at the worst point of the Global Financial Crisis. High inflationary pressures coupled with the upcoming recession will certainly pose a serious challenge to the Bank of England (BoE). The market participants expect the central bank will hike rates by at least 50 basis points later this week (a stronger hike of 75 basis points is possible on cards). But we wonder how long the tightening cycle can last in the UK given the rapid deterioration of the situation on the growth front. On a flip note, the EZ CPI for August was confirmed at 9.1 % year-over-year. This is painfully high. Expect the ECB to hike interest rates by at least 50 basis points at its October meeting. In her last appearance last Friday, ECB president Christine Lagarde did not give much clue about the pace of the tightening cycle in the eurozone. She only mentioned that “hikes should send a signal that we’ll meet price goals”. US University of Michigan survey remains optimistic The preliminary September University of Michigan sentiment survey saw the headline rise to 59.5 from 58.5, just short of the expected 60, but nonetheless marking a fourth consecutive rise. Notably, the rise in forward expectations was starker than in current conditions, with the former also coming in above consensus expectations. Also, key were the inflation expectations, which echoed what was seen in the Fed surveys last week. The 1yr slowed to 4.6% from 4.8% and the 5yr expectations slowed to 2.8% from 2.9%.  EU recommends withholding EUR 7.5B from Hungary on rule of law violations The specific accusation is one of corruption in Hungary’s awarding of public contracts. The amount of budget funds to be withheld represents some one-third of the budget for Hungary during the current 7-year budget period. A majority of EU member states will have to approve the recommendation for the funds to be withheld. Hungary has scrambled recently to address the EU’s concerns, with new laws to be debated next week as the country has until November 19 to make changes and inform the commission. What are we watching next? Japan’s CPI and central bank decision to signal concerns on yen weakness Japan has key data on August inflation due Tuesday followed by the Bank of Japan decision a day after the FOMC on Thursday. Consensus estimates for August CPI are touching close to 3% levels, with core higher as well at 1.5% YoY from 1.2% previously. Upside pressures continue to persist from high food and energy prices, while the soft year-ago base also means mobile phone charges are likely to pick up. While it is still hard to expect a pivot from the Bank of Japan this week, given that Governor Kuroda remains focused on achieving wage inflation, the meeting will still likely have key market implications. Raft of central bank meetings this week It isn’t just FOMC week, we also have a bevy of other central banks up with rate decisions this week, including Sweden’s Riksbank tomorrow, which is expected to hike 75 basis points to take the policy rate to 1.50%. The FOMC meets Wednesday, followed by a historic Thursday in which the Bank of Japan, Norges Bank of Norway, Swiss National Bank and Bank of England meet among G-10 currencies, with the Central Bank of Turkey and South Africa’s Reserve Bank also meeting that day. Of those, only Turkey and Japan are expected to keep rates unchanged, with all others looking to continue tightening policy. Porsche IPO set for €70-75bn valuation The Porsche brand is set to be spun out from the Volkswagen group on September 29, with 12.5% of the shares to be floated. VW shareholders will be awarded a special dividend on half of the proceeds from the IPO, with the remaining half targeted for investing in the transition to EVs. The IPO comes with a greenshoe option of 10-15% dilution. Earnings calendar this week This week our earnings focus is on Lennar on Wednesday as US homebuilders are facing multiple headwinds from still elevated materials prices and rapidly rising interest rates impacting forward demand. Later during this week, we will watch Carnival earnings as forward outlook on cruise demand is a good indicator of the impact on consumption from tighter financial conditions. Today: AutoZone Tuesday: Haleon Wednesday: Lennar, Trip.com, General Mills Thursday: Costco Wholesale, Accenture, FactSet Research Systems, Darden Restaurants Friday: Carnival Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Switzerland Swiss National Bank Sight Deposits 0900 – ECB’s Guindos to speak 1200 – ECB's De Cos to speak 1245 – ECB's Villeroy to speak 1400 – US Sep. NAHB Housing Market Index 2330 – Japan Aug. National CPI 0115 – China Rate Announcement 0130 – Australia RBA Minutes of Sep. Policy Meeting  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-sep-19-2022-19092022

Norges Bank (NB) hiked its key rate by another 50 bps to 1.75% in August. At Thursday's meeting, the central bank will have to raise its rate path significantly to propel the krone, economists at Commerzbank report. NB to refer to the downside risks for the economy “The market is pricing in 50 bps. That means Norges Bank would have to raise its rate path quite considerably and deliver a hawkish statement to support NOK additionally.”  “The recent regional business survey illustrated that the risks for growth have risen. Moreover, inflation might begin to peak soon. So it is not certain that NB will be much more restrictive than it was before. I fear it is more likely to refer to the downside risks for the economy, and I, therefore, see little upside potential for NOK.”

Sweden's Riksbank raised rates 100 bps with warnings of further hikes. However, the day ended disappointingly for SEK as it was unable to benefit. In the view of economists at Commerzbank, the market reaction is exaggerated. Riksbank surprises, krona nonetheless weaker “The Riksbank hiked the key rate by 100 bps to now 1.75% and signalled further rate hikes for the coming six months. The Riksbank raised its inflation projections significantly, which was overdue though since rates had always surprised on the upside since June.” “The market should see it positively that the Riksbank is taking decisive action against inflation. Moreover, it seems sensible to be cautious regarding the GDP projections for 2023 in view of a looming energy crisis over the winter.”  “Contrary to the Riksbank the ECB does not expect a fall in activity, which is likely to turn out to be an overly optimistic view and lead to a pause in the ECB’s rate cycle next year. The Riksbank on the other hand is considering weakening growth in its rate projections. For that reason, SEK should gain ground against the euro over the coming months, even if it is going to do so from weaker levels as the negative sentiment on the markets is currently putting considerable pressure on SEK.”

A busy week for central banks come to an end with plenty of rate hikes, increased prospects of slowing growth, that leave investors with a bad taste in their mouth. Eyes on rate hike The Swedish Riksbank was the first major central bank to surprise with a 100bp rate hike. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered its third 75bp hike. But the dot plot hinted at another jumbo hike before the year-end. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its policy rate unchanged at -0.10%, but intervened directly in the FX market to buy yen to fight back the strengthening dollar. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised its policy rate by 75bp. The Bank of England (BoE) opted for a 50bp hike, combined with an £80 billion Quantitative Tightening, and said the UK is now in recession. The UK will reveal the ‘mini’ budget today. Norges Bank also increased its policy rate by 50bp but signaled that tightening may be coming to an end. Indonesia and the Philippines also hiked by 50bp. Taiwan raised by a modest 12.5% as expected, Vietnam opted for a 100bp hike, South Africa raised by 75bp… …and Turkey… cut its rate by 100bp for the second consecutive meeting! But the week is not over. The Italian elections due Sunday will likely continue pressuring the euro lower. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:26 Keeping up with the central banks 4:37 UK 'mini' budget is all but mini. 6:15 Continue keeping up with the central banks 7:22 Market update 8:42 Into the Italian elections Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #FOMC #Fed #SNB #BoE #BoJ #CBT #rate #decision #jumbo #hikes #USD #JPY #GBP #EUR #CHF #TRY #BIST #UK #mini #budget #Italy #elections #crude #oil #FedEx #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The Swiss National Bank’s decision to introduce bank reserve tiering sheds light on similar potential decisions at the Bank of England and European Central Bank. Central banks have to balance monetary policy transmission, interest costs, and incentive structures for banks In this article SNB: actively moving to absorb liquidity BoE: saving money where it can ECB: peering into pandora’s box Source: Shutterstock European central banks are gradually adjusting their policy setting to a world of positive interest rates but with still abundant liquidity. The common theme here is that hundreds of billions, or trillions in the ECB’s case, of bank reserves will be remunerated at positive interest rates, at a cost for their central banks, and ultimately their domestic government treasury. SNB: actively moving to absorb liquidity The Swiss National Bank (SNB) was the first one to actually implement a reserve tiering system at its September meeting. In a nutshell, banks’ sight deposits at the SNB up to a certain threshold will earn the SNB policy rate, currently 0.5%, and 0% on balances above that threshold. This, however, is only part of the story. In parallel, the SNB announced it will conduct liquidity-absorbing operations (Open Market Operations or OMOs). With a threshold set at an elevated 28 times banks required reserves, it won’t take much effort for the SNB to absorb enough liquidity so that all that remains is remunerated at the SNB. In effect, the SNB rate should remain the marginal rate in CHF money markets, and tiering should act as an incentive for banks to participate in liquidity-absorbing operations. The SNB's goal seems to be to make sure higher policy rates are transmitted to the economy The upshot is that the main feature of the new liquidity set-up at the SNB will be to remove liquidity from the system as it tightens policy in order to get inflation under control. There is likely to be only marginal interest rate savings for the central bank on its CHF640bn of sight deposits, if at all, but this doesn’t seem to be the point of the policy change. Rather the SNB's goal seems to be to make sure higher policy rates are transmitted to the economy. Bank reserves at the BoE will decline with QT, but not fast enough to save much interest cost to the BoE   Source:Refinitiv, ING BoE: saving money where it can There have been persistent press reports that the UK is looking to reduce the amount of interest it pays to banks. This is a more pressing issue in the UK because bank reserves now approach £945bn and the swap curve is implying that the Bank Rate could climb to 5% next year. This is something of a worst-case scenario, but this would result in an interest rate bill approaching £50bn per year. In practice, we think that rate hike expectations are exaggerated, and the BoE intends to reduce its bond holdings, and so the amount of reserves, by £80bn per year at least. At a time of large open-ended fiscal support to energy consumers, the Treasury could be forgiven for trying to save on this interest rate bill. The Treasury could be forgiven for trying to save on its interest rate bill Two options present themselves to the BoE. Designing a reserve tiering system akin to the SNB would allow it to gradually reduce the amount of liquidity in the system. Interest cost saving would probably be underwhelming at first, but it could attempt to gradually increase the amount of liquidity withdrawn from the system, thus also supporting its monetary tightening stance. Inversely, it could determine a fixed amount of reserves that is remunerated at 0%, with balances above that threshold earning the Bank Rate. If that threshold is set too high, this measure would incentivise banks to get rid of their liquidity and would push money market rates lower, thus contradicting the BoE’s monetary policy stance. Setting the threshold lower would mean a lower interest rate saving from the BoE but also probably less disruption in GBP money markets. We think this is the option that would likely deliver the best near-term compromise for public finances. Its market impact should be limited at first. The distribution of bank liquidity and TLTRO borrowing is uneven across the eurozone Source: Refinitiv, ING ECB: peering into pandora’s box The European Central Bank’s motivation could be similar to the BoE's. As policy rates rise, the interest banks earn by placing liquidity at the ECB will gradually rise above the rate they are paying on their targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) loans, presenting them with an interest rate gain. If this is the sole problem it is intending to solve, one option would be to retroactively change the TLTRO terms by raising its interest rate. This would be detrimental to the predictability, and so attractiveness of future TLTRO operations, however. With the brunt of TLTRO loans due to expire by the middle of next year, one could also question the need to come up with risky solutions to a problem that will disappear in nine months. The ECB has effectively allowed banks to borrow money at a lower rate than they earn when they place it back at the ECB If on the other hand, the goal is to reduce its interest bill over the longer term, it could borrow one of the two designs described above. A set-up similar to the SNB’s, where a fixed amount of reserves earns the policy rate and the amount in excess earns 0%, would imply that it intends to actively withdraw liquidity. This could be achieved if banks rush to repay TLTRO loans, but this is likely to result in at least a temporary drop in money market rates. To prevent this temporary disruption, the ECB could bridge the period until the next quarterly TLTRO repayment opportunity with ad hoc liquidity draining operations, or simply make the tiering apply on the same date as TLTRO repayment. If this is the option retained by the ECB, the reduction in excess liquidity resulting from early TLTRO repayments, and other liquidity draining operations, would push money market rates higher relative to the ECB deposit rate. Interbank lending rates would be the first area where we expect a reaction as banks move to replace TLTRO funding. In time, we'd also expect greater competition among banks to attract wholesale deposits. Both would push Euribor fixings higher relative to euro short-term rate (Estr) swaps. This should also contribute to pushing Estr fixings above the deposit rate, and closer to the refinancing rate. Draining liquidity would eventually push Estr above the ECB deposit rate Source: Refinitiv, ING   A design similar to the one described above for the BoE, where a fixed amount earns 0% and balances above that threshold earn the policy rate, would guarantee some interest rate saving but wouldn’t provide an incentive for banks to repay TLTRO funds if the threshold is set low enough. If the threshold is set high, then the risk is that 0% becomes the marginal interest rate for many banks and that some countries end up being net lenders, and others net borrowers. The result would be a drop in money market rates in some countries, and a rise in others. TagsSNB ECB BoE   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

As the latest inflation numbers were well below the Czech National Bank's forecasts, we believe the CNB repo rate will remain unchanged at 7%. For Hungary, although another 100bp increase is on the table, we favour a 75bp hike right now due to the combination of a lower CPI peak and worse GDP outlook In this article Czech Republic: Rates should remain unchanged again Hungary: A 75bp hike is expected on Tuesday Source:Shutterstock Czech Republic: Rates should remain unchanged again Next Thursday, the second monetary policy meeting will be held under the leadership of the new CNB board. Nothing has changed in our forecast since the last meeting and we expect rates to remain unchanged this time, too. This is indicated by both the statements of the board members and the latest inflation numbers, which were well below the CNB's forecasts in July and August. The same result can be expected from the September number (our preliminary forecast is for 17.6% year-on-year). On the other hand, the GDP and wage numbers were higher than the CNB's forecast, but we still believe that lower-than-expected inflation provides an ample buffer for the current board. Thus, we do not see a significant risk of a change in the current CNB view for the coming months, which means that this hiking cycle is done. Read our full CNB preview here.  Hungary: A 75bp hike is expected on Tuesday The main event of next week in Hungary is the rate-setting meeting of the National Bank of Hungary. We narrowly favour a 75bp hike on Tuesday, taking the Bank Rate to 12.50%, although another 100bp is clearly on the table. The government's decision to prolong price cap measures for basic food and fuel will lower the near-term CPI peak, somewhat limiting concerns about consumer inflation expectations becoming extreme. Moreover, the introduction of liquidity draining measures and the expected improvement in the monetary transmission mechanism reduce the urgency to continue tightening in 100bp increments. The latest official communication, which pointed out that the CPI peak might be near - a milestone in this tightening cycle - could also be a sign of a possible slowdown in the pace of hiking. We also see the central bank revising its GDP outlook significantly downward in 2022 and 2023, providing another talking point for reducing the size of rate increases. However, decision-makers might be worried about the vulnerability of the forint, and will also argue that the government’s latest support package (prolonged mortgage rate freeze, energy bill and investment support to energy-intensive SMEs, investment support to large energy-intensive factories and a job protection action plan) could increase medium-term inflation given it reduces the risk of recession. If these latter arguments are taken into account with greater weight, we see a chance for a 100bp hike next week. That means it’s a close meeting to call. Read our full NBH Preview here. Key events in developing markets next week Source: Refinitiv, ING TagsHungary Czech Repulbic Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more  

Inflation is expected to peak later this year and then decline back towards the 2–3 per cent range. The expected moderation in inflation reflects the ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, recent declines in some commodity prices and the impact of rising interest rates. The outlook for global economic The path to achieving this balance is a narrow one and clouded in uncertainty, not least because of global developments. The outlook for global economic growth has deteriorated due to pressures on real incomes from high inflation, the tightening of monetary policy in most countries, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the COVID containment measures and other policy challenges in China. The outlook for global economic growth has worsened and represents a key uncertainty. Central banks in several major advanced economies have expressed continued determination to tighten monetary policy to prevent the consolidation of high inflation, which would likely trigger a period of much lower growth. High inflation also put pressure on real incomes, especially in Europe, as the impact on energy markets worsened following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The last decision Inflation in Australia is the highest it has been since the early 1990s and is expected to increase further over the months ahead. The Board is committed to returning inflation to the 2–3 per cent range over time. At its last meeting, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 50 basis points to 2.35 per cent. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 50 basis points to 2.25 per cent. The expectations The Council expects a further increase in interest rates in the coming months, but it is not on a predetermined path given the uncertainty about the outlook for inflation and growth. The behavior of household spending remains a significant source of uncertainty. Higher inflation and higher interest rates put pressure on household budgets. The RBA started its rate rise cycle in May during the federal election campaign. The market may expect the RBA to raise rates again. The question remains only by how many percentage points this time? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be deciding between a 0.25 and a 0.50 percentage point hike. Some experts expect the Australian central bank to raise interest rates another half a point in its most aggressive tightening cycle to contain red-hot inflation. As at 30 September, the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures October 2022 contract was trading at 97.305, indicating a 79% expectation of an interest rate increase to 2.85% at the next RBA Board meeting. Although many well-known economists such as Ben Jarman, the chief economist of JPMorgan, swear that on Tuesday the central bank will decide on the fifth consecutive "undersized" increase by 50 bp, the chances are that the RBA will decide to tighten monetary policy more slightly by 25 bp. The official decision will be announced on Tuesday, October 4. The rates market is even more hawkish. The Board is still resolute in the need to ensure inflation returned to target, but mindful that the path to achieve this needed to account for the risks to growth and employment. The Board is seeking to return inflation to target while keeping the economy on an even keel. The path to achieving this balance remains a narrow one and clouded in uncertainty. The size and timing of future interest rate increases will still depend on the incoming economic data and the assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 bps to 3.50%. Today's Statement makes clear the RBNZ job is far from done. Thus, economists at TD Securities expect the terminal rate to hit 4.50% in April 2023. Still some heavy lifting to do “The RBNZ hiked the OCR by 50 bps as expected to 3.50%. The Bank reiterated continuing to hike ‘at pace’ given the demand for goods continues to exceed supply, core inflation is too high and the labour market is very tight.” “Although the Bank considered hiking 75 bps today, we still expect a 50 bps hike next month.” “The RBNZ Governor's comments that the hike cycle is very mature and the possibility the Board pays more attention to offshore risks opens a downshift to 25 bps hikes in Feb and Apr'23 taking terminal to 4.50%. Unless there is a destabilising risk event, the risks to our OCR forecast are to the upside.”

Inflation is in the spotlight in Asia next week while the Bank of Korea considers another rate hike In this article The week ahead Inflation readings from India and China Bank of Korea to hike another 50bp China and Philippine trade reports Japan and India’s industrial data Other important data reports: China loan data and Singapore’s GDP Source: Shutterstock The week ahead In the coming week, several regional economies will report their inflation figures while the Bank of Korea meets to discuss policy. On top of prices and central bank decisions, we also get trade data from China and the Philippines. Inflation readings from India and China India’s September inflation numbers are likely to be lifted by higher food prices, in particular, tomatoes, which jumped to almost INR44/kg in September from INR35/kg in August. That will help push food prices up by about 1.7% from the previous month and take the headline inflation rate to 7.8% year-on-year from its current rate of 7.0%. There is some seasonality at work in these price increases, and the effects of this price spike on inflation will likely dissipate quickly, taking inflation back to the low 7s by the following month, enabling the Reserve Bank of India to adopt a more gradual tightening path at its December meeting. Meanwhile, China’s inflation should see a slight pick-up to 2.7%YoY in September (2.5%YoY previous) as the economy gradually recovers. Bank of Korea to hike another 50bp The Bank of Korea (BoK) holds a meeting next Wednesday to discuss policy. We expect the BoK to raise interest rates by 50bp, given the faster-than-expected rate hike by the Fed coupled with persistently high domestic inflation. China and Philippine trade reports The coming week also features trade data from China. External demand for China’s exports has been weaker due to elevated global inflation and therefore we should only expect mild growth for both exports and imports. In the Philippines, recent trends in trade activity will likely continue. Exports will likely manage only a modest gain while imports are expected to post another month of double-digit gains. The trade deficit should test historic lows once again and put pressure on the Philippine peso in the near term. Japan and India’s industrial data Industrial production data is also on the data calendar although India’s industrial production data for August is a bit lagged. In Japan, machinery orders data will be released and we expect a continuous recovery thanks to manufacturers catching up with previously unmet existing vehicle orders and the economic reopening. Other important data reports: China loan data and Singapore’s GDP China will release loan data next week that should show another strong month of loan growth which is unusual towards the end of the year. The strong performance is likely due to more lending to SMEs and the agricultural sector. We do not expect any change for the 1Y Medium Term Lending Facility rate (currently at 2.75%). The central bank has stated several times that the current interest rate level is about the neutral level.    Lastly, growth in Singapore may settle at 3.0% YoY with quarter-on-quarter growth almost flat. Retail sales have held up decently in the quarter as have non-oil domestic exports.  Asia Economic Calendar   Source: Refinitiv, ING TagsAsia week ahead Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more  

This morning, reports from Asia and the Pacific appeared. Traders also are now looking at macro data from the US - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the usual weekly data on initial unemployment claims, and data on existing home sales. Japanese Trade Balance (Sep) Japan provided data on exports and imports, and thus on its balance sheet, at the start of the day. The current reading is positive and shows an improvement in the trading result. The current reading is higher than the pronosed -2.167.4B and is at the level of -2.094.0B. For more than a year, Japan has been importing more than exporting, and since May the situation has worsened significantly. The balance then decreased from the level of -842.8B to the level of -2,384.7B. In the following months, the result was above the level of 1,000.0B. This situation is unfavorable for the country, so the current positive reading has a significant impact on the Japanese currency (JPY). Source: investing.com This positive trade result was largely influenced by the positive export performance. The published report shows that exports increased from 22% to 28.9%. He was taller than expected. This is the lowest result during the year. Source: investing.com Australia labor maket reports Australia today presented the result on the appearance of the labor market. The number of employees and the unemployment rate are instances of the country's conditions in this sector. Despite a rebound from the negative area in the previous reading, the number of people employed in September fell to 0.9K. The index scores for the year are generally in a downward trend. The decline will begin in the first half of the year, and the lowest level was in April at 4.0K. It then doubled and the annual peak was at 88.4K. The unexpected drop below zero occurred in the month following the highest score. Therefore, the positive reading from the previous period was significant for the economy. The current reading may weaken not only the economy but also the Australian dolar (AUD). Source: investing.com People's Bank of China Loan Prime Rate The positive news for the Australian labor market is that the unemployment rate remains at 3.5%. Another reading showed that this indicator holds up once again. People's Bank of China Loan Prime Rate will remain at 3.65% for the third time. EU Leaders Summit The most important event of the day for europe is Leaders Summit . The Euro Summit brings together the heads of state or government of the euro area countries, the Euro Summit President and the President of the European Commission. This meetings provide strategic guidelines on euro area economic policy. The comments made at this meeting may give a signal about future decisions, which at the moment are very important not only for the economy but also for the market. US Initial Jobless Claims Every weekly report on the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week will appear at 14:30 CET. Another increase is expected. The projected number of applications is at the level of 230K. This means that the indicator will be in an uptrend for the second week in a row. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. The last picture of conditions is negative. It has been at a very low level since May, falling below zero levels. The latest reading was at -9.9, expected to rise to -5.0. This is a small but important improvement in conditions. The general appearance is negative. US Existing Home Sales Another important report for the US market is the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. The outlook for this indicator is pessimistic. The number is expected to drop from 4.80M to 4.70M. Despite the economic situation, the index remained above 5.0M for a significant part of this year. The first drop below this level took place in July (4.81M). In August, it fell slightly to the level of 4.80M. Another decline may signal a deepening of the downward trend. This means that home sales deteriorate significantly. Source: investing.com Summery 1:50 CET Japan Exports (YoY) (Sep) 1:50 CET Japan Trade Balance (Sep) 2:30 CET Australia Employment Change (Sep) 2:30 CET Australia Unemployment Rate (Sep) 3:15 CET PBoC Loan Prime Rate 12:00 CET EU Leaders Summit 14:30 CET US Initial Jobless Claims 14:30 CET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) 16:00 CET US Existing Home Sales (Sep) Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

The first reports came from the Pacific at the start of the day. This is an instant report on inflation in Australia. In the second half of the day I am waiting for important decisions from both Americas. Australian CPI At the beginning of the day, we get to know the report on the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer in AUstralia. Both the annual and quarterly CPI results are positive. The price change from the third quarter of this year to the third quarter of last year increased by 1.2%. It was expected to rise to 7.0%, but the result turned out to be higher (7.3%). Looking at the previous periods, we can conclude that CPI YoY is in an exemplary trend. Source: investing.com CPI QoQ maintained its previous level of 1.8% and was higher than the forecasted 1.6%, therefore this reading was considered positive. BoC Interest Rate Decision Today the Bank of Canada will decide on interest rates. It is expected that this time there will be a hike of 75bp. Before the pandemic, interest rates were at 1.75%. Along with the increase in the risk of the crash, the rates dropped to the level of 0.25% and this level was maintained until March this year, when the first increase by 0.25% took place. Subsequent decisions on rate hikes confirmed the current level of 3.25%. To better understand the decisions of the Bank of Canada, traders will observe the press conference, which will take place one hour after the announcement of the new rate level. Crude Oil Inventories The weekly report on The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories will be released today. The reading is expected to be added and the number of barrels of oil held by the US Firms is expected to hit 1.029M. Such a result will mean an increase from the last level of -1.725M. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. New Home Sales (Sep) According to forecasts, the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month will drop from 685K to 585K. Which may mean that the August peak turned out to be a false reflection of the downtrend. Since the beginning of the year, sales of family houses have been in a downward trend, despite several false rebounds from this trend. We can expect this trend to continue as long as interest rates continue to rise and the Fed does not ease its actions. Source: investing.com Brazil Interest Rate Decision Today, the largest country in South America will also decide on interest rates. The level is expected to be maintained. The last three decisions remained unchanged at 13.75% and a fourth such decision is expected. As of August 2020, interest rates in Brazil were at 2.0%. There have been increases in rates since March 2021. In February this year, they exceeded the level of 10.75%. They grew until they hit 13.75% in August. Summary: 2:30 CET Australian CPI (YoY) 2:30 CET Australian CPI (QoQ) 16:00 CET BoC Interest Rate Decision 16:00 CET New Home Sales (Sep) 16:30 CET Crude Oil Inventories 17:00 CET BOC Press Conference 23:00 CET Brazil Interest Rate Decision Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

In the world of economics, we use many indicators to describe the situation of a farm. A lot of these are important, but GBP is really essential. Recently, the situation of the economies and markets has been influenced by interest rates. But what exactly can we learn from these data, decisions?   What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? We often Hear that some economy is expecting growth, but what does that mean? Read more: The US Economy Expects Growth (GDP) In The Last Quarter (Q3) | FXMAG.COM By definition, gross domestic product is the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced in a country during a specified period. GDP is an economic snapshot of a country that is used to estimate the size of an economy and its rate of growth. GDP can be calculated in three ways using expenditure, production or income. It can be adjusted for inflation and population to provide deeper insight.     What do we learn from GDP? It gives us some idea of where the national economy is going we can determine whether the economy is developing and how fast. It is thanks to this that we can learn about a recession or the growth or stagnation of farmhouses. Governments and other entities such as central banks can adjust their actions by knowing the results. If growth slows, they can introduce expansionary monetary policy to try to stimulate the economy. If the pace of growth is solid, they can use monetary policy to slow things down and try to fight off inflation. Moreover, it enables analysts to compare countries economically. However, it should not be treated as a hard economic indicator, because there are many gaps in this method of "measuring the economy". Since GDP is a direct indicator of the health and growth of an economy, companies can use GDP as a guide in their business strategy.   There are also types of GDP. The main ones are: Nominal GDP is an assessment of economic production in an economy that includes current prices in its calculation. All goods and services counted in nominal GDP are valued at the prices that those goods and services are actually sold for in that year. Real GDP is an inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the number of goods and services produced by an economy in a given year, with prices held constant from year to year to separate out the impact of inflation or deflation from the trend in output over time. GDP per capita is a measurement of the GDP per person in a country’s population. Per-capita GDP shows how much economic production value can be attributed to each individual citizen.   When a central bank lends money - what is interest rate? Interest rate is the amount a lender charges a borrower and is a percentage of the principal—the amount loaned. The interest rate also applies to the amount earned in the bank or the cashier from the deposit account. The interest rates charged by banks depend on many factors, such as the state of the economy. A country's central bank sets the interest rate each bank uses to determine the APR range it offers. When the central bank sets interest rates high, the cost of debt goes up. The high cost of debt discourages people from taking loans and slows down consumer demand. So it helps against inflation, but it is negative for borrowers because the cost of debt rises and sometimes it can be difficult to pay off. In the situation of some households, this state of affairs can cause financial problems, such as indebtedness to friends or elsewhere, and directly affects the standard of living.     Stimulating economies On the other hand, economies are often stimulated during periods of low interest rates because borrowers have access to cheap loans. Because the savings rate is low, companies and individuals are more likely to spend and buy more risky investment instruments such as stocks. This spending fuels the economy and injects capital markets. Simply put, for economies interest rates are crucial because they help stimulate their growth and also help in times of high inflation. Sources: Dictionary Of Economics And Commerce

10Y US Treasury yields are more than 60bp away from the peak they reached in early March, prior to the regional banking crisis. The Fed has been pushing a more hawkish line disappointed by the lack of progress on the inflation front, but end-2023 Sofr futures still price a rate that is 50bp below the early March peak.   At least so far, this doesn’t feel like a wholesale reappraisal of the market’s macro view although a more forceful Fed communication at the 14 June meeting, with potentially a hike and a higher end-2023 median dot, could push us closer to this year’s peak in rates.     ECB pricing is hard to move but markets look to the BoE for guidance In Europe, today’s inflation prints from France, Germany, and Italy will, in addition to yesterday’s Spanish release, give us a pretty good idea of where the eurozone-wide number will fall tomorrow. If the drop in Spain’s core inflation is any guide, EUR markets will struggle to follow their US peers higher.   Add to this that it is difficult for euro rates to price a path for policy rates that materially diverges from their US peers. Even if the Fed hikes in June or July, the EUR swap curve already prices ECB hikes at both meetings. Swaps assign a low probability to another hike in September for now.   That probability may well rise but we think any labour-market induced sell-off in US Treasuries will reflect, in part, in wider rates differentials between the two currencies.   It is difficult for euro rates to price a path for policy rates that materially diverges from their US peers  

On Tuesday, the demand for the pound was significantly higher than that for the euro. As soon as this happened, many analysts began to pay attention to the report on prices in UK stores, as shop price inflation accelerated to 9% this month. This indicates that UK inflation is decreasing slowly or not decreasing at all, despite the benchmark interest rate being raised to 4.5%.   The consensus forecast for the Bank of England's rate currently suggests two more quarter point rate hikes in June and August.   This would bring the rate to 5%. Any further tightening without alternatives would push the British economy into a recession, and even the current rate could potentially cause it, despite the BoE's optimistic forecasts. But how can inflation be combated if it hardly responds to the actions of the central bank?     I believe there can only be one disheartening answer: it cannot. If further rate hikes lead to a recession, the Brits, clearly dissatisfied with recent events within the country, may start a new wave of mass strikes. Take note that in the past year, many Brits have openly criticized the British government for the sharp decline in real incomes and high inflation.   If the rate increases further, the economy will contract, leading to an increase in unemployment. If the rate is kept as it is, it might take years for inflation to return to the target level. The BoE is in a deadlock. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey expects inflation to start decreasing rapidly from April. He noted the decline in energy prices, which will somewhat dampen inflationary pressure on all categories of goods and services. However, the April inflation report was unusually contradictory. While headline inflation showed a significant slowdown, core inflation continues to rise.   Therefore, it is not possible to conclude that inflation is slowing down in the general sense. We can only wait and observe. If Bailey turns out to be right, then the BoE will not need to raise the rate to 5.5% or 6%, which currently seems like a fantasy.   However, if inflation continues to hover around 10%, the BoE will need to devise new measures to address it without exerting serious pressure on the economy. It might require patience for several years. It is entirely unclear which option the central bank will choose.   The demand for the British pound may increase as market expectations of a hawkish stance grow. But will these expectations be justified? The pound may rise based on this, but fall even harder when it becomes clear that the BoE is not ready to raise the rate above 5%. I believe that wave analysis should be the primary tool for forecasting at the moment.     Based on the analysis conducted, I conclude that the uptrend phase has ended. Therefore, I would recommend selling at this point, as the instrument has enough room to fall. I believe that targets around 1.0500-1.0600 are quite realistic.   A corrective wave may start from the 1.0678 level, so you can consider short positions if the pair surpasses this level. The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair has long indicated the formation of a new downtrend wave. Wave b could be very deep, as all waves have recently been equal.   A successful attempt to break through 1.2445, which equates to 100.0% Fibonacci, indicates that the market is ready to sell. I recommend selling the pound with targets around 23 and 22 figures. But most likely, the decline will be stronger.    

AUD/USD: On Friday, the Australian dollar surpassed the entire range of target levels at 1.6567-0.6628, reaching resistance at the MACD line on the daily chart. The price then retreated below the upper limit of the range and continued to fall this morning.     AUD/USD: On Friday, the Australian dollar surpassed the entire range of target levels at 1.6567-0.6628, reaching resistance at the MACD line on the daily chart. The price then retreated below the upper limit of the range and continued to fall this morning.     There could be resistance from bulls in the upcoming medium-term decline, potentially leading to sideways movement. This is because the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold a monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with the current rate of 3.85% expected to be maintained. To confirm the downtrend, the price needs to break below the support of the MACD line (0.6525), and the Marlin oscillator should enter the negative area.  

Unemployment could edge higher in Australia The Australian labour market data for May may show a further increase in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.8%, though this remains very low by historical standards and won’t provide the Reserve Bank of Australia with too much comfort. Employment growth may register a small increase, with last month’s fall in full-time employment and rise in part-time employment likely to swap signs this month.   The Australian labour market may not be powering ahead as it recently did, but it hasn’t yet delivered a clear sign of weakening either, and we aren’t expecting the picture to change this month.   Inflation comfortably within target in India CPI data for May will show inflation remaining comfortably within the Reserve Bank of India's 2-6% target range. We are expecting inflation to come in at 4.3% YoY after a 0.5% MoM increase. Helpful base effects are keeping inflation within the target range for now, but we need to see the MoM trend to move below 0.5% in the coming months to keep it there.     Indonesia's trade balance to remain in healthy surplus Indonesia reports trade numbers next week. We expect both exports and imports to remain in contraction although the drop off may be less pronounced than the previous month. Imports are likely to dip roughly 12.2% YoY while exports may fall by 2.1% YoY, resulting in a sizable trade surplus of $4.7bn. A trade surplus of this magnitude should help keep the current account balance in surplus and could act as one counterbalance to investment related outflows, which would help provide some support to the rupiah.  

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD The test of 1.0929 on Monday afternoon, coinciding with the significant rise of the MACD line from zero, limited the upward potential of the pair. The Bundesbank report dealt no impact on market sentiment yesterday, allowing EUR/USD to rise, albeit briefly.     This momentum may extend to today as the data on ECB's balance of payments will not affect the pair's direction, while the speech of ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, which will undoubtedly maintain a hawkish tone, will sustain demand for euro even under current conditions. Market volatility will most likely return today.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0935 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0964. Although a strong growth may not appear today, buyers will start returning to the market, leading to the strengthening of the pair. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0911, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0935 and 1.0964.   For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0911 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0878. Pressure may return in the event of inactivity at the daily highs. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0935, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0911 and 1.0878.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.