price target

GBP/USD Yesterday, the British pound grew (by 0.47% compared to a 0.20% decline in the dollar index) and its upper shadow managed to reach the target level of 1.2443. As the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has already approached the boundary of the growth area, it may start to reverse downwards in the direction of the main trend.   If the reversal occurs and the price establishes itself below the MACD line (1.2400), the first target will be 1.2273 (the April 3 low and the high of February 14). If the price stays above 1.2443, it can rise towards 1.2583. However, the pound may not reach this level, and a reversal could occur from any intermediate resistance.       On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has shown slight growth in the growth area but is now showing initial signs of a downward reversal.   Since the MACD line is located below the 1.2400 level, overcoming the support level (1.2365) will serve as the final condition for the price to reverse into a medium-term decline.  

                        Forex Analysis & Reviews: Weekly analysis on XRPUSD for June 13th, 2023   Yellow rectangle- resistance Green lines- Fibonacci extension targets   XRPUSD is trading today around $0.55 above the major resistance area. So far price got rejected twice at the $0.52-$0.55 resistance area we mentioned several times in previous posts. Today price is breaking above the resistance level but it is important for bulls to see at least a weekly close above $0.52 first.   XRPUSD hasn't made a weekly close above $0.52 for a long time and if bulls manage to maintain price above it, it will be the first big step for the next upward wave that could bring price towards $0.70. Bulls need to hold price above the yellow rectangle resistance area. Recapturing $0.55 would be an added sign of strength. Short-term support is at least week's low at $0.47. Bulls do not want to see price break below that level.  

USD/JPY has been trading upside this morning and I see potential for the further rally today due to the breakout of the downside channel. Due to the breakout of the downside channel and the bullish trend on the short and mid term horizon, I see potential for the further growth towards upper references.   Upside objective is set at the price of 142.35 MACD oscillator is showing increasing in the upside momentum, which is good confirmation for the further upside movement. Intraday support is set at the price of 141.65  

Dollar weakens as inflation cools Apple reaches historic $3 trillion market cap Fed rate hike bets eye a peak at 5.410%   US stocks are rallying after the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge showed the disinflation process remains intact and the consumer is showing signs of weakness. A hot inflation report and Fed swaps might have been convinced that a second-rate hike by year end was likely.  Treasury yields edged lower after the PCE report was a little dovish. US Data The core personal consumption expenditure index, a key reading followed by the Fed rose 0.3% in May, matching the consensus estimate.  On annual basis, the PCE reading dropped from 4.7% to 4.6%.  Personal spending came in softer at 0.1%, while the prior reading was revised lower from 0.8% to 0.6%.  The consumer is starting to look a lot weaker and that should support inflation to drop even further over the coming months.   Apple Apple is attempting to become the first $3 trillion company as Wall Street remains all-in on mega-cap tech stocks.  Last month, Apple’s capitalization became more valuable than the entire Russell 2000 and it seems like that could widen further.  Apple got a boost after Citi raised their price target to a Street-high price of $240.  Apple’s outlook remains solid given their balance sheet and future revenue projects, but these latest gains might be more of a defensive switch for traders who see a US economy that is recession bound.    

Bitcoin Bitcoin remains stuck around the $30,000 level as Wall Street awaits any US Bitcoin ETF update and as market expectations for a 25 basis point hike at the next Fed meeting seems very likely. Stocks are looking a little toppy ahead of earnings and that might mean risk aversion might be ready to make a return.  Bitcoin got a strong vote of confidence from Standard Chartered, with a price target of $50,000 this year and $120,000 for 2024.  Miner profitability was one of the key reasons for the elevated price targets, but that might not be as easy as electricity costs grow and over surging debt payments Bitcoin appears locked in a range, but that might continue as we may have to wait months before getting any concrete ETF updates.  

Fed meeting, Microsoft earnings  There was nothing in the list of flash PMI data released yesterday morning to make investors think that economic activity in Europe is doing fine. All numbers were in the red, they all missed expectations. German and French manufacturing plunged further in the contraction zone and German manufacturing PMI even plunged below 39, a number we have not seen since summer 2020, which was the heart of the pandemic. The war, the energy prices, and/or the European Central Bank (ECB) tightening are taking a toll on the German manufacturing. And even the German car sector is struggling. Tesla for example sold more cars in H1 than Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes and Porsche combined. Cherry on top of the bad news, the Spanish PPI showed an 8% contraction versus -10% penciled in by analysts. The EURUSD plunged below the 1.11, the trend and momentum indicators turned negative hinting that the selloff in the runoff to Thursday's ECB meeting could extend toward the 1.10 mark, as the soft economic data brought forward the expectation that the ECB is certainly approaching the end the most aggressive tightening cycle of its relatively short history. But the softer-than-expected fall in Spanish PPI still keeps some hawks defending the idea that the ECB won't stop fighting inflation if inflation doesn't cool enough.     Don't look now, but across the Channel, the PMI numbers didn't look better. The UK manufacturing PMI fell to 45, while the composite PMI avoided the contraction territory by just a few points. Cable sold off to the lowest level in two weeks and is now testing the May to now ascending channel's base, as traders put more weight on the damage that the rising Bank of England (BoE) rates will do to the British economy, than on the good they might do to sterling holders.   Across the Atlantic Ocean, the picture was a little but more mixed. US manufacturing remained in the contraction zone but contracted much slower than expected by analysts, but services and overall activity grew more slowly than expected, still. The US dollar index gained for the 5th consecutive session and is consolidating above the 101 level at the time of writing, as investors continue positioning for the Fed meeting that starts today.   The Fed starts its two-day policy meeting in just a couple of hours from now, and will highly likely announce a 25bp hike on Wednesday. But what Fed officials will also do is to remind investors that the tightening cycle is probably not over and that there will probably be another rate hike on the US' horizon. So yes, there is a great chance that the Fed will spoil your mood if you are among those thinking that this week's rate hike will be the last for this tightening cycle in the US.     Markets  US stocks traded higher yesterday with the S&P500 adding 0.40% and Nasdaq 0.14% after its special rebalancing. The US 2-year yield advanced past 4.90% and fell this morning. While the VIX index shows no sign of a particular stress from equity traders, BoFA's MOVE index is close to 110 level, versus around the 60 level prior to the Q3 of 2021: bond traders remain very much uncertain about the number of additional rate hikes that the Fed could deliver. And there is no line in the sand, the Fed will continue hiking if the US jobs market, consumption and housing market remain resilient to interest rate hikes.    Microsoft earnings  Today, Microsoft is due to announce its Q2 earnings after the bell. Focus is on whether, and by how much Microsoft benefited from the AI craze and how much AI boosted growth for Azure – which was under pressure since a couple of quarters due to macro factors. On Friday, a Goldman Sachs analyst reiterated his buy rating for MSFT and revised his price target from $350 to $400 a share. But because  there is too much optimism in the market, it may be gently time to take profit, wait for the next bullish wave and rotate toward where the next action is expected to happen.  The Magnificent Seven thrived so far this year and the un-magnificent 493 other stocks remained mostly on the sidelines. What we see these days is that the un-magnificent other stocks are also catching up with the rally. Today, 70% of the S&P500 stocks trade above their 200-DMA. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said that 'they were wrong' regarding their bearish stock market expectation this year, while JP Morgan's Kolanovic insists that a selloff is coming. And one day, he will be right!    By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank 

Tesla fuels market rally By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank    Tesla jumped 10% yesterday and reversed morose mood due to the Apple-led selloff. Tesla shares flirted with the $275 per share on Monday, thanks to Morgan Stanley analysts who said that its Dojo supercomputer may add as much as $500bn to its market value, as it would mean a faster adoption of robotaxis and network services. As a result, MS raised its price target from $250 to $400 a share.   Tesla rally helped the S&P500 make a return above its 50-DMA, as Nasdaq 100 jumped more than 1%. Apple recorded a second day of steady trading after shedding almost $200bn in market value last week because of Chinese bans on its devices in government offices, and Qualcomm, which was impacted by the waves of the same quake, recovered nearly 4%, after Apple announced an extension to its chip deal with the company for 3 more years. Making chips in house to power Apple devices would take longer than thought.   Speaking of chips and their makers, ARM which prepares to announce its IPO price tomorrow, has been oversubscribed by 10 times already and bankers will stop taking orders by today. The promising demand could also encourage an upward revision to the IPO price, and we could eventually see the kind of market debut that we like!    Today, at 10am local time, Apple will show off its new products to reverse the Chinese-muddied headlines to its favour before the crucial holiday selling season. The Chinese ban of Apple devices in government offices sounds more terrible than it really is, as the real impact on sales will likely remain limited at around 1%.   In the bonds market, the US 2-year yield is steady around the 5% mark before tomorrow's much-expected US inflation data. The major fear is a stronger-than-expected uptick in headline inflation, or lower-than-expected easing in core inflation. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is torn between further tightening or wait-and-see as focus shifts to melting US savings, which fell significantly faster than the rest of the DM, and which could explain the resilience in US spending and growth, but which also warns that the US consumers are now running out of money, and they will have to stop spending. So, are we finally going to have that Wile E Coyote moment? Janet Yellen doesn't think so, she is on the contrary confident that the US will manage a soft landing, that the Fed will break inflation's back without pushing economy into recession. Wishful thinking?   But everyone comes to agree on the fact that the Eurozone is not looking good. The EU Commission itself cut the outlook for the euro-area economy. It now expects GDP to rise only 0.8% this year, and not 1.1% as it forecasted earlier, as Germany will probably contract 0.4% this year. The slowing euro-area economy has already softened the European Central Bank (ECB) doves' hands over the past weeks. Consequently, the EURUSD gained marginally yesterday despite the fresh EU commission outlook cut and should continue gently drifting higher into Thursday's ECB meeting. There is no clarity regarding what the ECB will decide this week. The economy is slowing but inflation will unlikely to continue its journey south, giving the ECB a reason to opt for a 'hawkish' pause, or a 'normal' 25bp hike. 

We initiate our coverage of Selena FM with a price target of PLN 40.4 and a BUY recommendation. Despite unfavourable demand trends in the construction materials market in Europe, which will put pressure on sales and gross margin over the next 12 months, we appreciate the company's growth in recent years and note the strong fundamentals that will support further business development. Over the last five and ten years, the sales CAGR has been 10.7% and 6.4% respectively. The company's history has been underpinned by numerous mergers and acquisitions, and we expect the strategy of building shareholder value through acquisitions to continue well into the future. The acquisition of Imperalum in Portugal is arguably one of the first steps in expanding its geographic and product presence in Europe. As well as focusing on its core segment, the company also sees potential in developing its offering in complementary ways, as exemplified by the joint investment with Masterplast in glass wool.   The downturn in the construction industry provides an opportunity for further acquisitions. We expect the company to continue its M&A-driven strategy in the coming quarters. Given the low level of debt at the end of Q1'23 (PLN 66m) and the potential to generate recurring EBITDA in the range of PLN 150-175m, while maintaining the DN/EBITDA ratio at 2.5x, the company has the potential to generate approx. PLN 300-375m of cash for potential acquisitions (vs. <PLN 50m for a 90% stake in Imperalum). We expect further acquisitions to be focused on Western and Central European countries, and only as a next step will the company decide to go outside Europe. We do not rule out a scenario where acquisitions are aimed at adding complementary products to the current product portfolio.     Falling raw material prices and competitive pressure may lead to deflation in construction chemicals prices. Since the beginning of the year, the prices of the basic chemical raw materials used by the company have fallen. Given that raw material consumption costs account for around 50% of sales, the current decline in TKW is encouraging competitors to fight more aggressively for market share in a situation of limited demand. PSB's data does not yet indicate deflation in construction chemicals prices (visible stabilisation), but we believe such a scenario is very likely in the coming quarters.   Significant scope for cost optimisation. The average gross sales margin between 2018 and 2022 was on average 6.6pp lower for domestic companies and 9.6pp lower for foreign companies. For the EBITDA margin, the difference was 3.6 pp and 7.2 pp respectively. It appears that the company has the potential to improve margins in the medium to long term by implementing appropriate cost optimisation programmes. Our forecasts take a conservative approach to the assumed EBITDA margin (8% on average over the forecast period), but we note the upside potential in this area for our valuation.     The EU's policy on energy-efficient buildings is gaining momentum. Over the next few years, the momentum for building insulation in the EU is expected to increase, partly funded by national NIPs. In Poland, more than 662,000 applications have been submitted under the Clean Air Programme (as of 4 August '23), for a total of more than PLN 16.4 billion. In Italy, the Superbonus programme has been in place since 2020, offering a 110% tax credit for thermomodernisation (as of July '22, 220,000 applications had been accepted under the programme for a total of EUR 44bn).   In Germany, EUR 56.3bn will be made available for building modernisation and renovation between 2023 and 2026. We believe that the secondary market will largely compensate for the loss of demand from the primary market as a result of central banks' monetary policy. Valuation. Our target price of PLN 40.4 is based on a DCF model. The comparative valuation implies a PER of PLN 41.7, which is PLN 32.9/share based on the domestic peer group only and PLN 50.5/share based on the foreign peer group only. Based on our 2024-25 forecasts, the company is valued at 8.6x and 6.2x PER, respectively, and with a target price of PLN 40.4, the PER is 13.7x and 9.9x, respectively.    

Q3'23 results preview In Q3'23, we assume relatively low progress on the acquisition of the next milestones of photovoltaic projects, which is mainly due to the holiday season and long vacations in the administration (not only the Distribution System Operator but also local government units).   As a result, some of the important environmental permits that could have fallen in Q3'23 have been postponed to Q4'23. We assume that Novavis did not obtain new connection conditions for photovoltaic farms in Q3'23, and that revenues are due to building permits and development conditions acquired. We assume that sales revenues in Q3'23 will amount to PLN 1.6mn (vs. PLN 0.1mn in Q3'22).   In our view, EBITDA in Q3'23 may reach PLN 0.7mn (vs. 0.6mn loss in Q3'22). We assume a net profit close to zero in Q3'23 due to the retroactive calculation of corporate tax due to exceeding the EUR 2mn revenue threshold (9% CIT for so-called small taxpayers).   OPINION: NEUTRAL We estimate that Q3'23 results will be markedly better y/y, but weaker q/q due to extended vacations in local government administrations. As a result, some of the scheduled environmental decisions have been postponed to Q4'23. We assume that results may clearly improve in Q4'23 as the company is likely to obtain connection conditions in several photovoltaic farms under development. In this document we are not changing our recommendation, forecasts, or price target for Novavis.